WorldWideScience

Sample records for ecological process model

  1. An ecological process model of systems change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peirson, Leslea J; Boydell, Katherine M; Ferguson, H Bruce; Ferris, Lorraine E

    2011-06-01

    In June 2007 the American Journal of Community Psychology published a special issue focused on theories, methods and interventions for systems change which included calls from the editors and authors for theoretical advancement in this field. We propose a conceptual model of systems change that integrates familiar and fundamental community psychology principles (succession, interdependence, cycling of resources, adaptation) and accentuates a process orientation. To situate our framework we offer a definition of systems change and a brief review of the ecological perspective and principles. The Ecological Process Model of Systems Change is depicted, described and applied to a case example of policy driven systems level change in publicly funded social programs. We conclude by identifying salient implications for thinking and action which flow from the Model.

  2. Ecosystem management via interacting models of political and ecological processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haas, T. C.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The decision to implement environmental protection options is a political one. Political realities may cause a country to not heed the most persuasive scientific analysis of an ecosystem's future health. A predictive understanding of the political processes that result in ecosystem management decisions may help guide ecosystem management policymaking. To this end, this article develops a stochastic, temporal model of how political processes influence and are influenced by ecosystem processes. This model is realized in a system of interacting influence diagrams that model the decision making of a country's political bodies. These decisions interact with a model of the ecosystem enclosed by the country. As an example, a model for Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus management in Kenya is constructed and fitted to decision and ecological data.

  3. Individual-based modeling of ecological and evolutionary processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DeAngelis, D.L.; Mooij, W.M.

    2005-01-01

    Individual-based models (IBMs) allow the explicit inclusion of individual variation in greater detail than do classical differential and difference equation models. Inclusion of such variation is important for continued progress in ecological and evolutionary theory. We provide a conceptual basis

  4. Individual-based modeling of ecological and evolutionary processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Mooij, Wolf M.

    2005-01-01

    Individual-based models (IBMs) allow the explicit inclusion of individual variation in greater detail than do classical differential-equation and difference-equation models. Inclusion of such variation is important for continued progress in ecological and evolutionary theory. We provide a conceptual basis for IBMs by describing five major types of individual variation in IBMs: spatial, ontogenetic, phenotypic, cognitive, and genetic. IBMs are now used in almost all subfields of ecology and evolutionary biology. We map those subfields and look more closely at selected key papers on fish recruitment, forest dynamics, sympatric speciation, metapopulation dynamics, maintenance of diversity, and species conservation. Theorists are currently divided on whether IBMs represent only a practical tool for extending classical theory to more complex situations, or whether individual-based theory represents a radically new research program. We feel that the tension between these two poles of thinking can be a source of creativity in ecology and evolutionary theory.

  5. [A process of aquatic ecological function regionalization: The dual tree framework and conceptual model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Shu Hai; Wu, Bo

    2017-12-01

    Aquatic ecological regionalization and aquatic ecological function regionalization are the basis of water environmental management of a river basin and rational utilization of an aquatic ecosystem, and have been studied in China for more than ten years. Regarding the common problems in this field, the relationship between aquatic ecological regionalization and aquatic ecological function regionalization was discussed in this study by systematic analysis of the aquatic ecological zoning and the types of aquatic ecological function. Based on the dual tree structure, we put forward the RFCH process and the diamond conceptual model. Taking Liaohe River basin as an example and referring to the results of existing regionalization studies, we classified the aquatic ecological function regions based on three-class aquatic ecological regionalization. This study provided a process framework for aquatic ecological function regionalization of a river basin.

  6. Process-based models are required to manage ecological systems in a changing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. Cuddington; M.-J. Fortin; L.R. Gerber; A. Hastings; A. Liebhold; M. OConnor; C. Ray

    2013-01-01

    Several modeling approaches can be used to guide management decisions. However, some approaches are better fitted than others to address the problem of prediction under global change. Process-based models, which are based on a theoretical understanding of relevant ecological processes, provide a useful framework to incorporate specific responses to altered...

  7. Making ecological models adequate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M.; Marshall, Charles R.; Carlson, Colin J.; Giuggioli, Luca; Ryan, Sadie J.; Romañach, Stephanie; Boettiger, Carl; Chamberlain, Samuel D.; Larsen, Laurel; D'Odorico, Paolo; O'Sullivan, David

    2018-01-01

    Critical evaluation of the adequacy of ecological models is urgently needed to enhance their utility in developing theory and enabling environmental managers and policymakers to make informed decisions. Poorly supported management can have detrimental, costly or irreversible impacts on the environment and society. Here, we examine common issues in ecological modelling and suggest criteria for improving modelling frameworks. An appropriate level of process description is crucial to constructing the best possible model, given the available data and understanding of ecological structures. Model details unsupported by data typically lead to over parameterisation and poor model performance. Conversely, a lack of mechanistic details may limit a model's ability to predict ecological systems’ responses to management. Ecological studies that employ models should follow a set of model adequacy assessment protocols that include: asking a series of critical questions regarding state and control variable selection, the determinacy of data, and the sensitivity and validity of analyses. We also need to improve model elaboration, refinement and coarse graining procedures to better understand the relevancy and adequacy of our models and the role they play in advancing theory, improving hind and forecasting, and enabling problem solving and management.

  8. Ecological hierarchies and self-organisation - Pattern analysis, modelling and process integration across scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, H.; Jopp, F.; Blanco-Moreno, J. M.; Damgaard, C.; Matsinos, Y.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    2010-01-01

    A continuing discussion in applied and theoretical ecology focuses on the relationship of different organisational levels and on how ecological systems interact across scales. We address principal approaches to cope with complex across-level issues in ecology by applying elements of hierarchy theory and the theory of complex adaptive systems. A top-down approach, often characterised by the use of statistical techniques, can be applied to analyse large-scale dynamics and identify constraints exerted on lower levels. Current developments are illustrated with examples from the analysis of within-community spatial patterns and large-scale vegetation patterns. A bottom-up approach allows one to elucidate how interactions of individuals shape dynamics at higher levels in a self-organisation process; e.g., population development and community composition. This may be facilitated by various modelling tools, which provide the distinction between focal levels and resulting properties. For instance, resilience in grassland communities has been analysed with a cellular automaton approach, and the driving forces in rodent population oscillations have been identified with an agent-based model. Both modelling tools illustrate the principles of analysing higher level processes by representing the interactions of basic components.The focus of most ecological investigations on either top-down or bottom-up approaches may not be appropriate, if strong cross-scale relationships predominate. Here, we propose an 'across-scale-approach', closely interweaving the inherent potentials of both approaches. This combination of analytical and synthesising approaches will enable ecologists to establish a more coherent access to cross-level interactions in ecological systems. ?? 2010 Gesellschaft f??r ??kologie.

  9. An Integrated Framework for Process-Driven Model Construction in Disease Ecology and Animal Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancy, Rebecca; Brock, Patrick M; Kao, Rowland R

    2017-01-01

    Process models that focus on explicitly representing biological mechanisms are increasingly important in disease ecology and animal health research. However, the large number of process modelling approaches makes it difficult to decide which is most appropriate for a given disease system and research question. Here, we discuss different motivations for using process models and present an integrated conceptual analysis that can be used to guide the construction of infectious disease process models and comparisons between them. Our presentation complements existing work by clarifying the major differences between modelling approaches and their relationship with the biological characteristics of the epidemiological system. We first discuss distinct motivations for using process models in epidemiological research, identifying the key steps in model design and use associated with each. We then present a conceptual framework for guiding model construction and comparison, organised according to key aspects of epidemiological systems. Specifically, we discuss the number and type of disease states, whether to focus on individual hosts (e.g., cows) or groups of hosts (e.g., herds or farms), how space or host connectivity affect disease transmission, whether demographic and epidemiological processes are periodic or can occur at any time, and the extent to which stochasticity is important. We use foot-and-mouth disease and bovine tuberculosis in cattle to illustrate our discussion and support explanations of cases in which different models are used to address similar problems. The framework should help those constructing models to structure their approach to modelling decisions and facilitate comparisons between models in the literature.

  10. An Integrated Approach to Modelling the Economy-Society-Ecology System in Urbanization Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunqiang Liu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization has become a key part of social and economic progress in the 21st Century, but achieving healthy and safe urban development has a long way to go for many developed and developing countries. Urbanization has been recognized as a complex ecosystem which is affected by economic, social, and ecological factors. With this in mind, this paper looks at many factors to first evaluate based on the matter-element (ME method and then model an Economy-Society-Ecology (ESE subsystem using a hybrid method by a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP, and then by using the entropy method (EM to determine the relevant index weights. To avoid subjectivity when defining the model’s boundaries, the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS is introduced. Then, a coupling coordination degree model focusing on the degree of coordination in the ESE subsystem is established. Panel data collected from 2003 to 2012 for Chengdu, China, is then simulated to analyze the development process. The results show that: (1 The quality of urbanization continues to improve and the phasic features are presented; (2 The sensitivity analysis of subsystem weight shown that it had less effect on the coupling coordinated system; (3 The coordination in the ESE subsystem has also improved. However, the development rate of the economic subsystem is greater than that of the societal and ecological subsystem. The approach used here therefore, is shown to provide a promising basis for policy-making to support healthy urban development.

  11. Social Interface Model: Theorizing Ecological Post-Delivery Processes for Intervention Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pettigrew, Jonathan; Segrott, Jeremy; Ray, Colter D; Littlecott, Hannah

    2018-01-03

    Successful prevention programs depend on a complex interplay among aspects of the intervention, the participant, the specific intervention setting, and the broader set of contexts with which a participant interacts. There is a need to theorize what happens as participants bring intervention ideas and behaviors into other life-contexts, and theory has not yet specified how social interactions about interventions may influence outcomes. To address this gap, we use an ecological perspective to develop the social interface model. This paper presents the key components of the model and its potential to aid the design and implementation of prevention interventions. The model is predicated on the idea that intervention message effectiveness depends not only on message aspects but also on the participants' adoption and adaptation of the message vis-à-vis their social ecology. The model depicts processes by which intervention messages are received and enacted by participants through social processes occurring within and between relevant microsystems. Mesosystem interfaces (negligible interface, transference, co-dependence, and interdependence) can facilitate or detract from intervention effects. The social interface model advances prevention science by theorizing that practitioners can create better quality interventions by planning for what occurs after interventions are delivered.

  12. A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

    2015-06-01

    In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

  13. A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: A first step towards ecological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

    2015-01-01

    In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

  14. An Integrated Framework for Process-Driven Model Construction in Disease Ecology and Animal Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Mancy

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Process models that focus on explicitly representing biological mechanisms are increasingly important in disease ecology and animal health research. However, the large number of process modelling approaches makes it difficult to decide which is most appropriate for a given disease system and research question. Here, we discuss different motivations for using process models and present an integrated conceptual analysis that can be used to guide the construction of infectious disease process models and comparisons between them. Our presentation complements existing work by clarifying the major differences between modelling approaches and their relationship with the biological characteristics of the epidemiological system. We first discuss distinct motivations for using process models in epidemiological research, identifying the key steps in model design and use associated with each. We then present a conceptual framework for guiding model construction and comparison, organised according to key aspects of epidemiological systems. Specifically, we discuss the number and type of disease states, whether to focus on individual hosts (e.g., cows or groups of hosts (e.g., herds or farms, how space or host connectivity affect disease transmission, whether demographic and epidemiological processes are periodic or can occur at any time, and the extent to which stochasticity is important. We use foot-and-mouth disease and bovine tuberculosis in cattle to illustrate our discussion and support explanations of cases in which different models are used to address similar problems. The framework should help those constructing models to structure their approach to modelling decisions and facilitate comparisons between models in the literature.

  15. The importance of topographically corrected null models for analyzing ecological point processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowall, Philip; Lynch, Heather J

    2017-07-01

    Analyses of point process patterns and related techniques (e.g., MaxEnt) make use of the expected number of occurrences per unit area and second-order statistics based on the distance between occurrences. Ecologists working with point process data often assume that points exist on a two-dimensional x-y plane or within a three-dimensional volume, when in fact many observed point patterns are generated on a two-dimensional surface existing within three-dimensional space. For many surfaces, however, such as the topography of landscapes, the projection from the surface to the x-y plane preserves neither area nor distance. As such, when these point patterns are implicitly projected to and analyzed in the x-y plane, our expectations of the point pattern's statistical properties may not be met. When used in hypothesis testing, we find that the failure to account for the topography of the generating surface may bias statistical tests that incorrectly identify clustering and, furthermore, may bias coefficients in inhomogeneous point process models that incorporate slope as a covariate. We demonstrate the circumstances under which this bias is significant, and present simple methods that allow point processes to be simulated with corrections for topography. These point patterns can then be used to generate "topographically corrected" null models against which observed point processes can be compared. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  16. Modelling of thermal processes and optimization of energy-ecology characteristics of the modern boiler plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filkoski, Risto V.

    2004-01-01

    The investigation accomplished in the framework of this work is concerned with the thermal processes in the furnaces of modern steam and hot-water boilers on fossil fuels. Aerodynamic and thermal conditions in the furnaces are described and models for separate processes and phenomena that occur there are presented. By using proper CFD technique, three-dimensional models of furnaces of coal-fired power boiler, hot-water boiler with circulating fluidized bed combustion and steam boiler on liquid/gaseous fuel are created. Graphical pre-processor is used for geometry creation and mesh generation of the investigated boiler plants. Mathematical model for the gas-solids mixture flow is based on Lagrange approach for the discrete phase simulations, in addition to the transport equations for the gas phase. A standard steady semi-empirical k-E model is employed for description of the turbulent flow. Coupling of velocity and pressure is achieved by the SIMPLEC method. Coal combustion is modelled as non-premixed kinetics/diffusion-limited process by the mixture fraction/probability density function approach for the reaction chemistry, with equilibrium assumption applied for description of the system chemistry. Radiation heat transfer is computed by means of the P-1 model, which is simplified variance of the P-N model, based on the expansion of the radiation intensity into an orthogonal series of spherical harmonics. Presence of discrete solid phase in the main gas stream is effectively taken into consideration through additional terms in the radiation energy transfer equation and in other model equations. Variable emissivity coefficient of the combustion products is modelled with the weighted-sum-of-grey gases-model. A model for NO x formation and reduction is included in the computations. Numerical simulations provide results concerning the boilers operation in several regimes. A methodology for optimisation of energetic-ecological characteristics of boiler plants is proposed

  17. Regional assessment of boreal forest productivity using an ecological process model and remote sensing parameter maps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimball, J. S.; Keyser, A. R.; Running, S. W.; Saatchi, S. S.

    2000-06-01

    An ecological process model (BIOME-BGC) was used to assess boreal forest regional net primary production (NPP) and response to short-term, year-to-year weather fluctuations based on spatially explicit, land cover and biomass maps derived by radar remote sensing, as well as soil, terrain and daily weather information. Simulations were conducted at a 30-m spatial resolution, over a 1205 km(2) portion of the BOREAS Southern Study Area of central Saskatchewan, Canada, over a 3-year period (1994-1996). Simulations of NPP for the study region were spatially and temporally complex, averaging 2.2 (+/- 0.6), 1.8 (+/- 0.5) and 1.7 (+/- 0.5) Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) for 1994, 1995 and 1996, respectively. Spatial variability of NPP was strongly controlled by the amount of aboveground biomass, particularly photosynthetic leaf area, whereas biophysical differences between broadleaf deciduous and evergreen coniferous vegetation were of secondary importance. Simulations of NPP were strongly sensitive to year-to-year variations in seasonal weather patterns, which influenced the timing of spring thaw and deciduous bud-burst. Reductions in annual NPP of approximately 17 and 22% for 1995 and 1996, respectively, were attributed to 3- and 5-week delays in spring thaw relative to 1994. Boreal forest stands with greater proportions of deciduous vegetation were more sensitive to the timing of spring thaw than evergreen coniferous stands. Similar relationships were found by comparing simulated snow depth records with 10-year records of aboveground NPP measurements obtained from biomass harvest plots within the BOREAS region. These results highlight the importance of sub-grid scale land cover complexity in controlling boreal forest regional productivity, the dynamic response of the biome to short-term interannual climate variations, and the potential implications of climate change and other large-scale disturbances.

  18. Optimization of the scheme for natural ecology planning of urban rivers based on ANP (analytic network process) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yichuan; Wang, Jiangping

    2015-07-01

    Rivers serve as a highly valued component in ecosystem and urban infrastructures. River planning should follow basic principles of maintaining or reconstructing the natural landscape and ecological functions of rivers. Optimization of planning scheme is a prerequisite for successful construction of urban rivers. Therefore, relevant studies on optimization of scheme for natural ecology planning of rivers is crucial. In the present study, four planning schemes for Zhaodingpal River in Xinxiang City, Henan Province were included as the objects for optimization. Fourteen factors that influenced the natural ecology planning of urban rivers were selected from five aspects so as to establish the ANP model. The data processing was done using Super Decisions software. The results showed that important degree of scheme 3 was highest. A scientific, reasonable and accurate evaluation of schemes could be made by ANP method on natural ecology planning of urban rivers. This method could be used to provide references for sustainable development and construction of urban rivers. ANP method is also suitable for optimization of schemes for urban green space planning and design.

  19. An ecological process model of female sex offending: the role of victimization, psychological distress, and life stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCou, Christopher R; Cole, Trevor T; Rowland, Sarah E; Kaplan, Stephanie P; Lynch, Shannon M

    2015-06-01

    Female sex offenders may be implicated in up to one fifth of all sex crimes committed in the United States. Despite previous research findings that suggest unique patterns of offending among female sex offenders, limited empirical research has investigated the motivations and processes involved. The present study qualitatively examined female sex offenders' offense-related experiences and characterized the internal and external factors that contributed to offending. Semi-structured interviews with 24 female sex offenders were analyzed by a team of coders with limited exposure to the existing literature using grounded theory analysis. A conceptual framework emerged representing distinctive processes for solo- and co-offending, contextualized within ecological layers of social and environmental influence. This model extends previous work by offering an example of nested vulnerabilities proximal to female sexual offending. Implications for future research, prevention, and treatment are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

  20. Modeling Benthic Sediment Processes to Predict Water Quality and Ecology in Narragansett Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    The benthic sediment acts as a huge reservoir of particulate and dissolved material (within interstitial water) which can contribute to loading of contaminants and nutrients to the water column. A benthic sediment model is presented in this report to predict spatial and temporal ...

  1. Development of Landscape Metrics to Support Process-Driven Ecological Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-01

    channel experiences shoaling due to strong tidal currents transporting sediments and has a symmetrical north-south, tide-dominant ebb delta. A 350...quantitative relationships can be established between landscape pattern formation and environmental or geomorphic processes, then those relationships could...should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law , no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of

  2. Inferring local ecological processes amid species pool influences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Belmaker, Jonathan; Myers, Jonathan A.

    2012-01-01

    studies, null models of community structure, and ecologically explicit definitions of the species pool as a means to compare predominant ecological processes among regions. By uniting concepts and tools from community ecology and macroecology, this approach might facilitate synthesis and resolve many......Resolving contingencies in community ecology requires comparative studies of local communities along broad-scale environmental gradients and in different biogeographic regions. However, comparisons of local ecological processes among regions require a synthetic understanding of how the species pool...... of potential community members influences the structure of ecological communities. Here, we outline an integrative approach for quantifying local ecological processes while explicitly accounting for species pool influences. Specifically, we highlight the utility of combining geographically replicated local...

  3. Interpreting the process behind endemism in China by integrating the phylogeography and ecological niche models of the Stachyridopsis ruficeps.

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    Huatao Liu

    Full Text Available An area of endemism (AOE is a complex expression of the ecological and evolutionary history of a species. Here we aim to address the principal drivers of avian diversification in shaping patterns of endemism in China by integrating genetic, ecological, and distributional data on the Red-headed Tree Babbler (Stachyridopsis ruficeps, which is distributed across the eastern Himalayas and south China. We sequenced two mtDNA markers from 182 individuals representing all three of the primary AOEs in China. Phylogenetic inferences were used to reconstruct intraspecific phylogenetic relationships. Divergence time and population demography were estimated to gain insight into the evolutionary history of the species. We used Ecological niche modeling to predict species' distributions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM and in the present. Finally, we also used two quantitative tests, an identity test and background test to assess the similarity of ecological niche preferences between adjacent lineages. We found five primary reciprocally monophyletic clades, typically separated approximately 0.2-2.27 MYA, of which three were deeply isolated endemic lineages located in the three AOEs. All phylogroups were detected to have undergone population expansion during the past 0.3 MY. Niche models showed discontinuous habitats, and there were three barriers of less suitable habitat during the LGM and in modern times. Ecoclimatic niches may diverge significantly even over recent timescales, as each phylogroup had a unique distribution, and unique niche characteristics. Vicariant events associated with geographical and ecological barriers, glacial refuges and ecological differentiation may be the main drivers forming the pattern of endemism in China.

  4. MELA: Modelling in Ecology with Location Attributes

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    Ludovica Luisa Vissat

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecology studies the interactions between individuals, species and the environment. The ability to predict the dynamics of ecological systems would support the design and monitoring of control strategies and would help to address pressing global environmental issues. It is also important to plan for efficient use of natural resources and maintenance of critical ecosystem services. The mathematical modelling of ecological systems often includes nontrivial specifications of processes that influence the birth, death, development and movement of individuals in the environment, that take into account both biotic and abiotic interactions. To assist in the specification of such models, we introduce MELA, a process algebra for Modelling in Ecology with Location Attributes. Process algebras allow the modeller to describe concurrent systems in a high-level language. A key feature of concurrent systems is that they are composed of agents that can progress simultaneously but also interact - a good match to ecological systems. MELA aims to provide ecologists with a straightforward yet flexible tool for modelling ecological systems, with particular emphasis on the description of space and the environment. Here we present four example MELA models, illustrating the different spatial arrangements which can be accommodated and demonstrating the use of MELA in epidemiological and predator-prey scenarios.

  5. [Temporal and spatial heterogeneity analysis of optimal value of sensitive parameters in ecological process model: The BIOME-BGC model as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi Zhe; Zhang, Ting Long; Liu, Qiu Yu; Li, Ying

    2018-01-01

    The ecological process models are powerful tools for studying terrestrial ecosystem water and carbon cycle at present. However, there are many parameters for these models, and weather the reasonable values of these parameters were taken, have important impact on the models simulation results. In the past, the sensitivity and the optimization of model parameters were analyzed and discussed in many researches. But the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal parameters is less concerned. In this paper, the BIOME-BGC model was used as an example. In the evergreen broad-leaved forest, deciduous broad-leaved forest and C3 grassland, the sensitive parameters of the model were selected by constructing the sensitivity judgment index with two experimental sites selected under each vegetation type. The objective function was constructed by using the simulated annealing algorithm combined with the flux data to obtain the monthly optimal values of the sensitive parameters at each site. Then we constructed the temporal heterogeneity judgment index, the spatial heterogeneity judgment index and the temporal and spatial heterogeneity judgment index to quantitatively analyze the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters. The results showed that the sensitivity of BIOME-BGC model parameters was different under different vegetation types, but the selected sensitive parameters were mostly consistent. The optimal values of the sensitive parameters of BIOME-BGC model mostly presented time-space heterogeneity to different degrees which varied with vegetation types. The sensitive parameters related to vegetation physiology and ecology had relatively little temporal and spatial heterogeneity while those related to environment and phenology had generally larger temporal and spatial heterogeneity. In addition, the temporal heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters showed a significant linear correlation

  6. A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics : A first step towards ecological modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Minikowski Achete, F.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, Bruce E.

    2015-01-01

    In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space

  7. Differential models in ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barco Gomez, Carlos; Barco Gomez, German

    2002-01-01

    The models mathematical writings with differential equations are used to describe the populational behavior through the time of the animal species. These models can be lineal or no lineal. The differential models for unique specie include the exponential pattern of Malthus and the logistical pattern of Verlhust. The lineal differential models to describe the interaction between two species include the competition relationships, predation and symbiosis

  8. ECOMOD: Ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sazykina, T.G.; Kryshev, I.I.

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of the model is a more detailed description of the radionuclide transfer in food chains, including the dynamics in the early period after accidental release. Detailed modelling of the dynamics of radioactive depositions is beyond the purpose of the model. Standard procedures are used for assessing inhalation and external doses. 3 figs, 2 tabs

  9. Estimating and mapping ecological processes influencing microbial community assembly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stegen, James C; Lin, Xueju; Fredrickson, Jim K; Konopka, Allan E

    2015-01-01

    Ecological community assembly is governed by a combination of (i) selection resulting from among-taxa differences in performance; (ii) dispersal resulting from organismal movement; and (iii) ecological drift resulting from stochastic changes in population sizes. The relative importance and nature of these processes can vary across environments. Selection can be homogeneous or variable, and while dispersal is a rate, we conceptualize extreme dispersal rates as two categories; dispersal limitation results from limited exchange of organisms among communities, and homogenizing dispersal results from high levels of organism exchange. To estimate the influence and spatial variation of each process we extend a recently developed statistical framework, use a simulation model to evaluate the accuracy of the extended framework, and use the framework to examine subsurface microbial communities over two geologic formations. For each subsurface community we estimate the degree to which it is influenced by homogeneous selection, variable selection, dispersal limitation, and homogenizing dispersal. Our analyses revealed that the relative influences of these ecological processes vary substantially across communities even within a geologic formation. We further identify environmental and spatial features associated with each ecological process, which allowed mapping of spatial variation in ecological-process-influences. The resulting maps provide a new lens through which ecological systems can be understood; in the subsurface system investigated here they revealed that the influence of variable selection was associated with the rate at which redox conditions change with subsurface depth.

  10. Estimating and Mapping Ecological Processes Influencing Microbial Community Assembly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James C Stegen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Ecological community assembly is governed by a combination of (i selection resulting from among-taxa differences in performance; (ii dispersal resulting from organismal movement; and (iii ecological drift resulting from stochastic changes in population sizes. The relative importance and nature of these processes can vary across environments. Selection can be homogeneous or variable, and while dispersal is a rate, we conceptualize extreme dispersal rates as two categories; dispersal limitation results from limited exchange of organisms among communities, and homogenizing dispersal results from high levels of organism exchange. To estimate the influence and spatial variation of each process we extend a recently developed statistical framework, use a simulation model to evaluate the accuracy of the extended framework, and use the framework to examine subsurface microbial communities over two geologic formations. For each subsurface community we estimate the degree to which it is influenced by homogeneous selection, variable selection, dispersal limitation, and homogenizing dispersal. Our analyses revealed that the relative influences of these ecological processes vary substantially across communities even within a geologic formation. We further identify environmental and spatial features associated with each ecological process, which allowed mapping of spatial variation in ecological-process-influences. The resulting maps provide a new lens through which ecological systems can be understood; in the subsurface system investigated here they revealed that the influence of variable selection was associated with the rate at which redox conditions change with subsurface depth.

  11. Mathematical models of ecology and evolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai

    2012-01-01

    -history processes: net-assimilation mechanism of 􀀀rule and net-reproduction mechanism of size dependence using a simple model comprising a size-structured consumer Daphina and an unstructured resource alge. It is found that in contrast to the former mechanism, the latter tends to destabilize population...... dynamics but as a trade-o promotes species survival by shortening juvenile delay between birth and the onset of reproduction. Paper II compares the size-spectrum and food-web representations of communities using two traits (body size and habitat location) based unstructured population model of Lotka......) based size-structured population model, that is, interference in foraging, maintenance, survival, and recruitment. Their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities are explored. Ecologically, interference aects population demographic properties either negatively...

  12. A universal simulator for ecological models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Niels

    2013-01-01

    Software design is an often neglected issue in ecological models, even though bad software design often becomes a hindrance for re-using, sharing and even grasping an ecological model. In this paper, the methodology of agile software design was applied to the domain of ecological models. Thus...... the principles for a universal design of ecological models were arrived at. To exemplify this design, the open-source software Universal Simulator was constructed using C++ and XML and is provided as a resource for inspiration....

  13. Spatially explicit modeling in ecology: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon

    2017-01-01

    The use of spatially explicit models (SEMs) in ecology has grown enormously in the past two decades. One major advancement has been that fine-scale details of landscapes, and of spatially dependent biological processes, such as dispersal and invasion, can now be simulated with great precision, due to improvements in computer technology. Many areas of modeling have shifted toward a focus on capturing these fine-scale details, to improve mechanistic understanding of ecosystems. However, spatially implicit models (SIMs) have played a dominant role in ecology, and arguments have been made that SIMs, which account for the effects of space without specifying spatial positions, have an advantage of being simpler and more broadly applicable, perhaps contributing more to understanding. We address this debate by comparing SEMs and SIMs in examples from the past few decades of modeling research. We argue that, although SIMs have been the dominant approach in the incorporation of space in theoretical ecology, SEMs have unique advantages for addressing pragmatic questions concerning species populations or communities in specific places, because local conditions, such as spatial heterogeneities, organism behaviors, and other contingencies, produce dynamics and patterns that usually cannot be incorporated into simpler SIMs. SEMs are also able to describe mechanisms at the local scale that can create amplifying positive feedbacks at that scale, creating emergent patterns at larger scales, and therefore are important to basic ecological theory. We review the use of SEMs at the level of populations, interacting populations, food webs, and ecosystems and argue that SEMs are not only essential in pragmatic issues, but must play a role in the understanding of causal relationships on landscapes.

  14. A Carbon Cycle Model for the Social-Ecological Process in Coastal Wetland: A Case Study on Gouqi Island, East China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanxia Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Coastal wetlands offer many important ecosystem services both in natural and in social systems. How to simultaneously decrease the destructive effects flowing from human activities and maintaining the sustainability of regional wetland ecosystems are an important issue for coastal wetlands zones. We use carbon credits as the basis for regional sustainable developing policy-making. With the case of Gouqi Island, a typical coastal wetlands zone that locates in the East China Sea, a carbon cycle model was developed to illustrate the complex social-ecological processes. Carbon-related processes in natural ecosystem, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, and residents on the island were identified in the model. The model showed that 36780 tons of carbon is released to atmosphere with the form of CO2, and 51240 tons of carbon is captured by the ecosystem in 2014 and the three major resources of carbon emission are transportation and tourism development and seawater desalination. Based on the carbon-related processes and carbon balance, we proposed suggestions on the sustainable development strategy of Gouqi Island as coastal wetlands zone.

  15. A Carbon Cycle Model for the Social-Ecological Process in Coastal Wetland: A Case Study on Gouqi Island, East China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Lihu; Zhu, Wenjia

    2017-01-01

    Coastal wetlands offer many important ecosystem services both in natural and in social systems. How to simultaneously decrease the destructive effects flowing from human activities and maintaining the sustainability of regional wetland ecosystems are an important issue for coastal wetlands zones. We use carbon credits as the basis for regional sustainable developing policy-making. With the case of Gouqi Island, a typical coastal wetlands zone that locates in the East China Sea, a carbon cycle model was developed to illustrate the complex social-ecological processes. Carbon-related processes in natural ecosystem, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, and residents on the island were identified in the model. The model showed that 36780 tons of carbon is released to atmosphere with the form of CO2, and 51240 tons of carbon is captured by the ecosystem in 2014 and the three major resources of carbon emission are transportation and tourism development and seawater desalination. Based on the carbon-related processes and carbon balance, we proposed suggestions on the sustainable development strategy of Gouqi Island as coastal wetlands zone. PMID:28286690

  16. Representing and managing uncertainty in qualitative ecological models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nuttle, T.; Bredeweg, B.; Salles, P.; Neumann, M.

    2009-01-01

    Ecologists and decision makers need ways to understand systems, test ideas, and make predictions and explanations about systems. However, uncertainty about causes and effects of processes and parameter values is pervasive in models of ecological systems. Uncertainty associated with incomplete

  17. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  18. The Modeling of the Processes of Assessment and Analysis of the Level of Socio-Ecological-Economic Development of a Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilko Andriy D.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There presented results of the research of existing scientific and methodological, and theoretical approaches to management of the socio-ecological-economic development of a region with subsequent definition of priorities of the regional policy taking into account the concepts of security and development. Based on the study of literature sources and the analysis of the available statistical base, the problem of assessing the level of social, economic, ecological development, the level of sustainable development and the degree of harmonization of sustainable development of territorial systems of a region is formulated, and a possible method of its solution is suggested. The direction and nature of the cause-effect relationships between social tension and the levels of economic, environmental, social development and the level of sustainable development of a region are determined. There proposed a scheme to build models for assessing the effectiveness of levers for managing social, economic and environmental processes at the level of territorial systems in a region, taking into account the level of social tension and indicators of the investment component of development.

  19. When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

    2017-01-01

    Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.

  20. Stochastic analysis in production process and ecology under uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Bieda, Bogusław

    2014-01-01

    The monograph addresses a problem of stochastic analysis based on the uncertainty assessment by simulation and application of this method in ecology and steel industry under uncertainty. The first chapter defines the Monte Carlo (MC) method and random variables in stochastic models. Chapter two deals with the contamination transport in porous media. Stochastic approach for Municipal Solid Waste transit time contaminants modeling using MC simulation has been worked out. The third chapter describes the risk analysis of the waste to energy facility proposal for Konin city, including the financial aspects. Environmental impact assessment of the ArcelorMittal Steel Power Plant, in Kraków - in the chapter four - is given. Thus, four scenarios of the energy mix production processes were studied. Chapter five contains examples of using ecological Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) - a relatively new method of environmental impact assessment - which help in preparing pro-ecological strategy, and which can lead to reducing t...

  1. Simulation of ecological processes using response functions method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malkina-Pykh, I.G.; Pykh, Yu. A.

    1998-01-01

    The article describes further development and applications of the already well-known response functions method (MRF). The method is used as a basis for the development of mathematical models of a wide set of ecological processes. The model of radioactive contamination of the ecosystems is chosen as an example. The mathematical model was elaborated for the description of 90 Sr dynamics in the elementary ecosystems of various geographical zones. The model includes the blocks corresponding with the main units of any elementary ecosystem: lower atmosphere, soil, vegetation, surface water. Parameters' evaluation was provided on a wide set of experimental data. A set of computer simulations was done on the model to prove the possibility of the model's use for ecological forecasting

  2. Bacteriophage ecology in environmental biotechnology processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Orr H; Kushmaro, Ariel

    2011-06-01

    Heterotrophic bacteria are an integral part of any environmental biotechnology process (EBP). Therefore, factors controlling bacterial abundance, activity, and community composition are central to the understanding of such processes. Among these factors, top-down control by bacteriophage predation has so far received very limited attention. With over 10(8) particles per ml, phage appear to be the most numerous biological entities in EBP. Phage populations in EBP appear to be highly dynamic and to correlate with the population dynamics of their hosts and genomic evidence suggests bacteria evolve to avoid phage predation. Clearly, there is much to learn regarding bacteriophage in EBP before we can truly understand the microbial ecology of these globally important systems. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Introduction to the Special Volume on "Ecology and Ecological Modeling in R"

    OpenAIRE

    Kneib, Thomas; Petzoldt, Thomas

    2007-01-01

    The third special volume in the "Foometrics in R" series of the Journal of Statistical Software collects a number of contributions describing statistical methodology and corresponding implementations related to ecology and ecological modelling. The scope of the papers ranges from theoretical ecology and ecological modelling to statistical methodology relevant for data analyses in ecological applications.

  4. ECOMOD - An ecological approach to radioecological modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sazykina, Tatiana G.

    2000-01-01

    A unified methodology is proposed to simulate the dynamic processes of radionuclide migration in aquatic food chains in parallel with their stable analogue elements. The distinguishing feature of the unified radioecological/ecological approach is the description of radionuclide migration along with dynamic equations for the ecosystem. The ability of the methodology to predict the results of radioecological experiments is demonstrated by an example of radionuclide (iron group) accumulation by a laboratory culture of the algae Platymonas viridis. Based on the unified methodology, the 'ECOMOD' radioecological model was developed to simulate dynamic radioecological processes in aquatic ecosystems. It comprises three basic modules, which are operated as a set of inter-related programs. The 'ECOSYSTEM' module solves non-linear ecological equations, describing the biomass dynamics of essential ecosystem components. The 'RADIONUCLIDE DISTRIBUTION' module calculates the radionuclide distribution in abiotic and biotic components of the aquatic ecosystem. The 'DOSE ASSESSMENT' module calculates doses to aquatic biota and doses to man from aquatic food chains. The application of the ECOMOD model to reconstruct the radionuclide distribution in the Chernobyl Cooling Pond ecosystem in the early period after the accident shows good agreement with observations

  5. Ecological succession as an energy dispersal process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Würtz, Peter; Annila, Arto

    2010-04-01

    Ecological succession is described by the 2nd law of thermodynamics. According to the universal law of the maximal energy dispersal, an ecosystem evolves toward a stationary state in its surroundings by consuming free energy via diverse mechanisms. Species are the mechanisms that conduct energy down along gradients between repositories of energy which consist of populations at various thermodynamic levels. The salient characteristics of succession, growing biomass production, increasing species richness and shifting distributions of species are found as consequences of the universal quest to diminish energy density differences in least time. The analysis reveals that during succession the ecosystem's energy transduction network, i.e., the food web organizes increasingly more effective in the free energy reduction by acquiring new, more effective and abandoning old, less effective species of energy transduction. The number of species does not necessarily peak at the climax state that corresponds to the maximum-entropy partition of species maximizing consumption of free energy. According to the theory of evolution by natural selection founded on statistical physics of open systems, ecological succession is one among many other evolutionary processes. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The Multi-factor Predictive Seis &Gis Model of Ecological, Genetical, Population Health Risk and Bio-geodynamic Processes In Geopathogenic Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bondarenko, Y.

    I. Goal and Scope. Human birth rate decrease, death-rate growth and increase of mu- tagenic deviations risk take place in geopathogenic and anthropogenic hazard zones. Such zones create unfavourable conditions for reproductive process of future genera- tions. These negative trends should be considered as a protective answer of the com- plex biosocial system to the appearance of natural and anthropogenic risk factors that are unfavourable for human health. The major goals of scientific evaluation and de- crease of risk of appearance of hazardous processes on the territory of Dnipropetrovsk, along with creation of the multi-factor predictive Spirit-Energy-Information Space "SEIS" & GIS Model of ecological, genetical and population health risk in connection with dangerous bio-geodynamic processes, were: multi-factor modeling and correla- tion of natural and anthropogenic environmental changes and those of human health; determination of indicators that show the risk of destruction structures appearance on different levels of organization and functioning of the city ecosystem (geophys- ical and geochemical fields, soil, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere); analysis of regularities of natural, anthropogenic, and biological rhythms' interactions. II. Meth- ods. The long spatio-temporal researches (Y. Bondarenko, 1996, 2000) have proved that the ecological, genetic and epidemiological processes are in connection with de- velopment of dangerous bio-geophysical and bio-geodynamic processes. Mathemat- ical processing of space photos, lithogeochemical and geophysical maps with use of JEIS o and ERDAS o computer systems was executed at the first stage of forma- tion of multi-layer geoinformation model "Dnipropetrovsk ARC View GIS o. The multi-factor nonlinear correlation between solar activity and cosmic ray variations, geophysical, geodynamic, geochemical, atmospheric, technological, biological, socio- economical processes and oncologic case rate frequency, general and primary

  7. Rich dynamics of discrete delay ecological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng Mingshu

    2005-01-01

    We study multiple bifurcations and chaotic behavior of a discrete delay ecological model. New form of chaos for the 2-D map is observed: the combination of potential period doubling and reverse period-doubling leads to cascading bubbles

  8. Overview of climate information needs for ecological effects models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peer, R.L.

    1990-01-01

    Atmospheric scientists engaged in climate change research require a basic understanding of how ecological effects models incorporate climate. The report provides an overview of existing ecological models that might be used to model climate change effects on vegetation. Some agricultural models and statistical methods are also discussed. The weather input data requirements, weather simulation methods, and other model characteristics relevant to climate change research are described for a selected number of models. The ecological models are classified as biome, ecosystem, or tree models; the ecosystem models are further subdivided into species dynamics or process models. In general, ecological modelers have had to rely on readily available meteorological data such as temperature and rainfall. Although models are becoming more sophisticated in their treatment of weather and require more kinds of data (such as wind, solar radiation, or potential evapotranspiration), modelers are still hampered by a lack of data for many applications. Future directions of ecological effects models and the climate variables that will be required by the models are discussed.

  9. Introduction to Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Ecological Data

    CERN Document Server

    Parent, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Making statistical modeling and inference more accessible to ecologists and related scientists, Introduction to Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Ecological Data gives readers a flexible and effective framework to learn about complex ecological processes from various sources of data. It also helps readers get started on building their own statistical models. The text begins with simple models that progressively become more complex and realistic through explanatory covariates and intermediate hidden states variables. When fitting the models to data, the authors gradually present the concepts a

  10. An analytically tractable model for community ecology with many species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickens, Benjamin; Fisher, Charles; Mehta, Pankaj; Pankaj Mehta Biophysics Theory Group Team

    A fundamental problem in community ecology is to understand how ecological processes such as selection, drift, and immigration yield observed patterns in species composition and diversity. Here, we present an analytically tractable, presence-absence (PA) model for community assembly and use it to ask how ecological traits such as the strength of competition, diversity in competition, and stochasticity affect species composition in a community. In our PA model, we treat species as stochastic binary variables that can either be present or absent in a community: species can immigrate into the community from a regional species pool and can go extinct due to competition and stochasticity. Despite its simplicity, the PA model reproduces the qualitative features of more complicated models of community assembly. In agreement with recent work on large, competitive Lotka-Volterra systems, the PA model exhibits distinct ecological behaviors organized around a special (``critical'') point corresponding to Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity. Our results suggest that the concepts of ``phases'' and phase diagrams can provide a powerful framework for thinking about community ecology and that the PA model captures the essential ecological dynamics of community assembly. Pm was supported by a Simons Investigator in the Mathematical Modeling of Living Systems and a Sloan Research Fellowship.

  11. Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2011-01-01

    population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...

  12. Guide for developing conceptual models for ecological risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, G.W., II.

    1996-05-01

    Ecological conceptual models are the result of the problem formulation phase of an ecological risk assessment, which is an important component of the Remedial Investigation process. They present hypotheses of how the site contaminants might affect the site ecology. The contaminant sources, routes, media, routes, and endpoint receptors are presented in the form of a flow chart. This guide is for preparing the conceptual models; use of this guide will standardize the models so that they will be of high quality, useful to the assessment process, and sufficiently consistent so that connections between sources of exposure and receptors can be extended across operable units (OU). Generic conceptual models are presented for source, aquatic integrator, groundwater integrator, and terrestrial OUs

  13. Stochastic dynamical models for ecological regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Jacob; Madsen, Henrik

    the physical and biological knowledge of the system, and nonlinearities introduced here can generate regime shifts or enhance the probability of regime shifts in the case of stochastic models, typically characterized by a threshold value for the known driver. A simple model for light competition between...... definition and stability of regimes become less subtle. Ecological regime shifts and their modeling must be viewed in a probabilistic manner, particularly if such model results are to be used in ecosystem management....

  14. Progress and challenges in coupled hydrodynamic-ecological estuarine modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganju, Neil K.; Brush, Mark J.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; del Barrio, Pilar; Grear, Jason S.; Harris, Lora A.; Lake, Samuel J.; McCardell, Grant; O'Donnell, James; Ralston, David K.; Signell, Richard P.; Testa, Jeremy; Vaudrey, Jamie M. P.

    2016-01-01

    Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational power, and incorporation of uncertainty. Coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models have been used to assess ecosystem processes and interactions, simulate future scenarios, and evaluate remedial actions in response to eutrophication, habitat loss, and freshwater diversion. The need to couple hydrodynamic and ecological models to address research and management questions is clear because dynamic feedbacks between biotic and physical processes are critical interactions within ecosystems. In this review, we present historical and modern perspectives on estuarine hydrodynamic and ecological modeling, consider model limitations, and address aspects of model linkage, skill assessment, and complexity. We discuss the balance between spatial and temporal resolution and present examples using different spatiotemporal scales. Finally, we recommend future lines of inquiry, approaches to balance complexity and uncertainty, and model transparency and utility. It is idealistic to think we can pursue a “theory of everything” for estuarine models, but recent advances suggest that models for both scientific investigations and management applications will continue to improve in terms of realism, precision, and accuracy.

  15. Data Assimilation at FLUXNET to Improve Models towards Ecological Forecasting (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.

    2009-12-01

    Dramatically increased volumes of data from observational and experimental networks such as FLUXNET call for transformation of ecological research to increase its emphasis on quantitative forecasting. Ecological forecasting will also meet the societal need to develop better strategies for natural resource management in a world of ongoing global change. Traditionally, ecological forecasting has been based on process-based models, informed by data in largely ad hoc ways. Although most ecological models incorporate some representation of mechanistic processes, today’s ecological models are generally not adequate to quantify real-world dynamics and provide reliable forecasts with accompanying estimates of uncertainty. A key tool to improve ecological forecasting is data assimilation, which uses data to inform initial conditions and to help constrain a model during simulation to yield results that approximate reality as closely as possible. In an era with dramatically increased availability of data from observational and experimental networks, data assimilation is a key technique that helps convert the raw data into ecologically meaningful products so as to accelerate our understanding of ecological processes, test ecological theory, forecast changes in ecological services, and better serve the society. This talk will use examples to illustrate how data from FLUXNET have been assimilated with process-based models to improve estimates of model parameters and state variables; to quantify uncertainties in ecological forecasting arising from observations, models and their interactions; and to evaluate information contributions of data and model toward short- and long-term forecasting of ecosystem responses to global change.

  16. Dynamic monitoring of landscape patterns and ecological processes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Landscape patterns and ecological processes have been in long-term research focus in the field of landscape ecology, but how to measure their quantitative relations is still open. This work chooses the Hulunbeier grassland as the study area where ecosystem shows high vulnerability, frequent evolvement of landscape ...

  17. Crisis in Context Theory: An Ecological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myer, Rick A.; Moore, Holly B.

    2006-01-01

    This article outlines a theory for understanding the impact of a crisis on individuals and organizations. Crisis in context theory (CCT) is grounded in an ecological model and based on literature in the field of crisis intervention and on personal experiences of the authors. A graphic representation denotes key components and premises of CCT,…

  18. Social Ecological Model Analysis for ICT Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagami, Jason

    2013-01-01

    ICT integration of teacher preparation programmes was undertaken by the Australian Teaching Teachers for the Future (TTF) project in all 39 Australian teacher education institutions and highlighted the need for guidelines to inform systemic ICT integration approaches. A Social Ecological Model (SEM) was used to positively inform integration…

  19. Integrating models with data in ecology and palaeoecology: advances towards a model-data fusion approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Changhui; Guiot, Joel; Wu, Haibin; Jiang, Hong; Luo, Yiqi

    2011-05-01

    It is increasingly being recognized that global ecological research requires novel methods and strategies in which to combine process-based ecological models and data in cohesive, systematic ways. Model-data fusion (MDF) is an emerging area of research in ecology and palaeoecology. It provides a new quantitative approach that offers a high level of empirical constraint over model predictions based on observations using inverse modelling and data assimilation (DA) techniques. Increasing demands to integrate model and data methods in the past decade has led to MDF utilization in palaeoecology, ecology and earth system sciences. This paper reviews key features and principles of MDF and highlights different approaches with regards to DA. After providing a critical evaluation of the numerous benefits of MDF and its current applications in palaeoecology (i.e., palaeoclimatic reconstruction, palaeovegetation and palaeocarbon storage) and ecology (i.e. parameter and uncertainty estimation, model error identification, remote sensing and ecological forecasting), the paper discusses method limitations, current challenges and future research direction. In the ongoing data-rich era of today's world, MDF could become an important diagnostic and prognostic tool in which to improve our understanding of ecological processes while testing ecological theory and hypotheses and forecasting changes in ecosystem structure, function and services. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  20. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  1. Ecological Risk Assessment Process under the Endangered Species Act

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides an overview of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) ecological risk assessment process for the evaluation of potential risk to endangered and threatened (listed) species from exposure to pesticides.

  2. Putting ecology in environmental remediation: The strategic planning process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A.

    1991-01-01

    Traditional ecological studies have been conducted on many sites impacted by hazardous wastes. Yet in many cases, the information obtained has had limited value in the selection of remediation options. This paper discusses the importance of developing an ecological risk-based strategic plan to fulfill the scientific and social needs demanded in the remediation and restoration of hazardous waste sites. Ecological issues need to be considered seriously at the earliest phases of the scoping process. The decisions regarding selection of assessment endpoints and data quality objectives must be incorporated from the start to insure that cost-efficient and useful measurements are used. It is too late to develop effective ecological studies after the engineering decisions have been made. Strategic planning that integrates ecological concerns will minimize the frustration and the cost associated with clean up of hazardous waste sites and maximize the likelihood of successful site restoration

  3. Microbial ecology to manage processes in environmental biotechnology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rittmann, Bruce E

    2006-06-01

    Microbial ecology and environmental biotechnology are inherently tied to each other. The concepts and tools of microbial ecology are the basis for managing processes in environmental biotechnology; and these processes provide interesting ecosystems to advance the concepts and tools of microbial ecology. Revolutionary advancements in molecular tools to understand the structure and function of microbial communities are bolstering the power of microbial ecology. A push from advances in modern materials along with a pull from a societal need to become more sustainable is enabling environmental biotechnology to create novel processes. How do these two fields work together? Five principles illuminate the way: (i) aim for big benefits; (ii) develop and apply more powerful tools to understand microbial communities; (iii) follow the electrons; (iv) retain slow-growing biomass; and (v) integrate, integrate, integrate.

  4. Ecological Processes and Contemporary Coral Reef Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Dikou

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Top-down controls of complex foodwebs maintain the balance among the critical groups of corals, algae, and herbivores, thus allowing the persistence of corals reefs as three-dimensional, biogenic structures with high biodiversity, heterogeneity, resistance, resilience and connectivity, and the delivery of essential goods and services to societies. On contemporary reefs world-wide, however, top-down controls have been weakened due to reduction in herbivory levels (overfishing or disease outbreak while bottom-up controls have increased due to water quality degradation (increase in sediment and nutrient load and climate forcing (seawater warming and acidification leading to algal-dominated alternate benthic states of coral reefs, which are indicative of a trajectory towards ecological extinction. Management to reverse common trajectories of degradation for coral reefs necessitates a shift from optimization in marine resource use and conservation towards building socio-economic resilience into coral reef systems while attending to the most manageable human impacts (fishing and water quality and the global-scale causes (climate change.

  5. [Ecological security of wastewater treatment processes: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Sai; Hua, Tao

    2013-05-01

    Though the regular indicators of wastewater after treatment can meet the discharge requirements and reuse standards, it doesn't mean the effluent is harmless. From the sustainable point of view, to ensure the ecological and human security, comprehensive toxicity should be considered when discharge standards are set up. In order to improve the ecological security of wastewater treatment processes, toxicity reduction should be considered when selecting and optimizing the treatment processes. This paper reviewed the researches on the ecological security of wastewater treatment processes, with the focus on the purposes of various treatment processes, including the processes for special wastewater treatment, wastewater reuse, and for the safety of receiving waters. Conventional biological treatment combined with advanced oxidation technologies can enhance the toxicity reduction on the base of pollutants removal, which is worthy of further study. For the process aimed at wastewater reuse, the integration of different process units can complement the advantages of both conventional pollutants removal and toxicity reduction. For the process aimed at ecological security of receiving waters, the emphasis should be put on the toxicity reduction optimization of process parameters and process unit selection. Some suggestions for the problems in the current research and future research directions were put forward.

  6. Ecological plant epigenetics: Evidence from model and non-model species, and the way forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Christina L; Alonso, Conchita; Becker, Claude; Bossdorf, Oliver; Bucher, Etienne; Colomé-Tatché, Maria; Durka, Walter; Engelhardt, Jan; Gaspar, Bence; Gogol-Döring, Andreas; Grosse, Ivo; van Gurp, Thomas P; Heer, Katrin; Kronholm, Ilkka; Lampei, Christian; Latzel, Vít; Mirouze, Marie; Opgenoorth, Lars; Paun, Ovidiu; Prohaska, Sonja J; Rensing, Stefan A; Stadler, Peter F; Trucchi, Emiliano; Ullrich, Kristian; Verhoeven, Koen J F

    2017-12-01

    Growing evidence shows that epigenetic mechanisms contribute to complex traits, with implications across many fields of biology. In plant ecology, recent studies have attempted to merge ecological experiments with epigenetic analyses to elucidate the contribution of epigenetics to plant phenotypes, stress responses, adaptation to habitat, and range distributions. While there has been some progress in revealing the role of epigenetics in ecological processes, studies with non-model species have so far been limited to describing broad patterns based on anonymous markers of DNA methylation. In contrast, studies with model species have benefited from powerful genomic resources, which contribute to a more mechanistic understanding but have limited ecological realism. Understanding the significance of epigenetics for plant ecology requires increased transfer of knowledge and methods from model species research to genomes of evolutionarily divergent species, and examination of responses to complex natural environments at a more mechanistic level. This requires transforming genomics tools specifically for studying non-model species, which is challenging given the large and often polyploid genomes of plants. Collaboration among molecular geneticists, ecologists and bioinformaticians promises to enhance our understanding of the mutual links between genome function and ecological processes. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Computer Modelling of Dynamic Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Rybakin

    2000-10-01

    Full Text Available Results of numerical modeling of dynamic problems are summed in the article up. These problems are characteristic for various areas of human activity, in particular for problem solving in ecology. The following problems are considered in the present work: computer modeling of dynamic effects on elastic-plastic bodies, calculation and determination of performances of gas streams in gas cleaning equipment, modeling of biogas formation processes.

  8. A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Hamilton P; Carey, Cayelan C.; Arvola, Lauri; Arzberger, Peter; Brewer, Carol A.; Cole, Jon J; Gaiser, Evelyn; Hanson, Paul C.; Ibelings, Bas W; Jennings, Eleanor; Kratz, Tim K; Lin, Fang-Pang; McBride, Christopher G.; de Motta Marques, David; Muraoka, Kohji; Nishri, Ami; Qin, Boqiang; Read, Jordan S.; Rose, Kevin C.; Ryder, Elizabeth; Weathers, Kathleen C.; Zhu, Guangwei; Trolle, Dennis; Brookes, Justin D

    2014-01-01

    A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate process- based ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest.

  9. Models for ecological models: Ocean primary productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikle, Christopher K.; Leeds, William B.; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2016-01-01

    The ocean accounts for more than 70% of planet Earth's surface, and it processes are critically important to marine and terrestrial life.  Ocean ecosystems are strongly dependent on the physical state of the ocean (e.g., transports, mixing, upwelling, runoff, and ice dynamics(.  As an example, consider the Coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGOA) region.

  10. Revisiting the Holy Grail: using plant functional traits to understand ecological processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Jennifer L; Larson, Julie E; Ames, Gregory M; Butterfield, Bradley J; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine; Firn, Jennifer; Laughlin, Daniel C; Sutton-Grier, Ariana E; Williams, Laura; Wright, Justin

    2017-05-01

    One of ecology's grand challenges is developing general rules to explain and predict highly complex systems. Understanding and predicting ecological processes from species' traits has been considered a 'Holy Grail' in ecology. Plant functional traits are increasingly being used to develop mechanistic models that can predict how ecological communities will respond to abiotic and biotic perturbations and how species will affect ecosystem function and services in a rapidly changing world; however, significant challenges remain. In this review, we highlight recent work and outstanding questions in three areas: (i) selecting relevant traits; (ii) describing intraspecific trait variation and incorporating this variation into models; and (iii) scaling trait data to community- and ecosystem-level processes. Over the past decade, there have been significant advances in the characterization of plant strategies based on traits and trait relationships, and the integration of traits into multivariate indices and models of community and ecosystem function. However, the utility of trait-based approaches in ecology will benefit from efforts that demonstrate how these traits and indices influence organismal, community, and ecosystem processes across vegetation types, which may be achieved through meta-analysis and enhancement of trait databases. Additionally, intraspecific trait variation and species interactions need to be incorporated into predictive models using tools such as Bayesian hierarchical modelling. Finally, existing models linking traits to community and ecosystem processes need to be empirically tested for their applicability to be realized. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  11. Using social network analysis tools in ecology : Markov process transition models applied to the seasonal trophic network dynamics of the Chesapeake Bay

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johnson, Jeffrey C.; Luczkovich, Joseph J.; Borgatti, Stephen P.; Snijders, Tom A. B.; Luczkovich, S.P.

    2009-01-01

    Ecosystem components interact in complex ways and change over time due to a variety of both internal and external influences (climate change, season cycles, human impacts). Such processes need to be modeled dynamically using appropriate statistical methods for assessing change in network structure.

  12. DEVELOPMENT OF ECOLOGICAL CULTURE OF STUDENTS IN THE PROCESS OF INTERCULTURAL COMMUNICATION IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. M. Andryukhina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. High level of ecological culture in modern society is the most important condition of self-preservation and sustainable development of a human civilization. The processes of globalization force to consider environmental problems with a support on polycultural practice, to take into account national and regional peculiarities in their integrity. Thus, there is the need of the international cooperation not only at the government level, but also at the levels of expert communities, separate groups of society and citizens of the country. Moreover, ecological culture is constantly highlighted in numerous studies, materials and documents of the international forums, summits and conferences of the UN and UNESCO. The aim of this publication is to present the authors’ didactic complex of development tools of ecological culture of students, and to show the potential of teaching foreign languages (on the example of French for students’ ecological culture formation by means of development of cross-cultural communicative competence.  Methodology and research methods. Culturological approach has been chosen as a key approach for creation of integrative model of development of ecological culture. The methods involve: the system-based analysis of the content of ecological education; generalization of the theory and practice of implementation of the international strategies of ecological culture development and the analysis of efficiency of the pedagogical technologies intended for this purpose; modeling of the process of formation of ecological culture of students. The diagnostics of components of students’ ecological culture has been performed by means of internal questioning, observation, and comparative analysis of group interactions. Also, pedagogical ascertaining experiments, methods of pedagogical design for forms of the educational environment organization, design of the educational programmes, and methods of graphical

  13. Ecological aspects in sustainable development model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurlapov, L.I.

    1996-01-01

    Environment problems are caused by intensive use of natural resources due to scientific progress in combination with the present structure of unlimited consumption. To prevent the impending ecological disaster a model of sustainable development has been worked out. It is aimed at satisfying the ever-growing requirements of the modern man without damaging the environment. Scientifically grounded use of nature mat contribute to solution of the problem. The acceptable use of nature should take account of the land ecosystem resources which is ensured by reliable model including flow balance in particular. Irreversible flows generate entropy which could be the universal measure of technic genetics impact. Entropic condition of the acceptable (sustainable) development are started: techno-genic entropy production must be less than natural entropy production. Particular sciences should be re-oriented towards environmental problems. Environmental monitoring strategy should provide for determination of macro properties as well as flows. (author)

  14. Using Ancient DNA to Understand Evolutionary and Ecological Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orlando, Ludovic Antoine Alexandre; Cooper, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Ancient DNA provides a unique means to record genetic change through time and directly observe evolutionary and ecological processes. Although mostly based on mitochondrial DNA, the increasing availability of genomic sequences is leading to unprecedented levels of resolution. Temporal studies of ...

  15. Focus on CSIR research in water resources: Modelling complex biophysical processes associated with diseases. Case study: the ecology of vibriocholerae in the Mozambican channel

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Du Preez, M

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available will be undertaken. Non-linear dynamics and chaos theory will be applied to enhance our understanding of the link between the microbial ecology, remote sensing and meteorological data. Focus on CSIR Research in Water Resources Contact details: CSIR Natural...

  16. Explanatory models for ecological response surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jager, H.I.; Overton, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    Understanding the spatial organization of ecological systems is a fundamental part of ecosystem study. While discovering the causal relationships of this organization is an important goal, our purpose of spatial description on a regional scale is best met by use of explanatory variables that are somewhat removed from the mechanistic causal level. Regional level understanding is best obtained from explanatory variables that reflect spatial gradients at the regional scale and from categorical variables that describe the discrete constituents of (statistical) populations, such as lakes. In this paper, we use a regression model to predict lake acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) based on environmental predictor variables over a large region. These predictions are used to produce model-based population estimates. Two key features of our modeling approach are that is honors the spatial context and the design of the sample data. The spatial context of the data are brought into the analysis of model residuals through the interpretation of residual maps and semivariograms. The sampling design is taken into account by including stratification variables from the design in the model. This ensures that the model applies to a real population of lakes (the target population), rather than whatever hypothetical population the sample is a random sample of

  17. Putting the "ecology" into environmental flows: ecological dynamics and demographic modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R; Yen, Jian D L; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2012-07-01

    There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

  18. Putting the "Ecology" into Environmental Flows: Ecological Dynamics and Demographic Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R.; Yen, Jian D. L.; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2012-07-01

    There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological `health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A `meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

  19. Applications of Ecological Engineering Remedies for Uranium Processing Sites, USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waugh, William [Navarro Research and Engineering

    2016-05-23

    The U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) is responsible for remediation of environmental contamination and long-term stewardship of sites associated with the legacy of nuclear weapons production during the Cold War in the United States. Protection of human health and the environment will be required for hundreds or even thousands of years at many legacy sites. USDOE continually evaluates and applies advances in science and technology to improve the effectiveness and sustainability of surface and groundwater remedies (USDOE 2011). This paper is a synopsis of ecological engineering applications that USDOE is evaluating to assess the effectiveness of remedies at former uranium processing sites in the southwestern United States. Ecological engineering remedies are predicated on the concept that natural ecological processes at legacy sites, once understood, can be beneficially enhanced or manipulated. Advances in tools for characterizing key processes and for monitoring remedy performance are demonstrating potential. We present test cases for four ecological engineering remedies that may be candidates for international applications.

  20. Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2010-04-01

    Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  1. Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Wu, Zhiwei

    2016-01-01

    ContextInteractions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs.ObjectivesWe used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas.MethodsWe assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA.ResultsInteracting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility.ConclusionsUnderstanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.

  2. An ecological vegetation-activated sludge process (V-ASP) for decentralized wastewater treatment: system development, treatment performance, and mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Jiajia; Dong, Wenyi; Sun, Feiyun; Li, Pu; Zhao, Ke

    2016-05-01

    An environment-friendly decentralized wastewater treatment process that is comprised of activated sludge process (ASP) and wetland vegetation, named as vegetation-activated sludge process (V-ASP), was developed for decentralized wastewater treatment. The long-term experimental results evidenced that the vegetation sequencing batch reactor (V-SBR) process had consistently stable higher removal efficiencies of organic substances and nutrients from domestic wastewater compared with traditional sequencing batch reactor (SBR). The vegetation allocated into V-SBR system could not only remove nutrients through its vegetation transpiration ratio but also provide great surface area for microorganism activity enhancement. This high vegetation transpiration ratio enhanced nutrients removal effectiveness from wastewater mainly by flux enhancement, oxygen and substrate transportation acceleration, and vegetation respiration stimulation. A mathematical model based on ASM2d was successfully established by involving the specific function of vegetation to simulate system performance. The simulation results on the influence of operational parameters on V-ASP treatment effectiveness demonstrated that V-SBR had a high resistance to seasonal temperature fluctuations and influent loading shocking.

  3. Selected developments and applications of Leontief models in industrial ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroemman, Anders Hammer

    2005-01-01

    Thesis Outline: This thesis investigates issues of environmental repercussions on processes of three spatial scales; a single process plant, a regional value chain and the global economy. The first paper investigates environmental repercussions caused by a single process plant using an open Leontief model with combined physical and monetary units in what is commonly referred to as a hybrid life cycle model. Physical capital requirements are treated as any other good. Resources and environmental stressors, thousands in total, are accounted for and assessed by aggregation using standard life cycle impact assessment methods. The second paper presents a methodology for establishing and combining input-output matrices and life-cycle inventories in a hybrid life cycle inventory. Information contained within different requirements matrices are combined and issues of double counting that arise are addressed and methods for eliminating these are developed and presented. The third paper is an extension of the first paper. Here the system analyzed is increased from a single plant and component in the production network to a series of nodes, constituting a value chain. The hybrid framework proposed in paper two is applied to analyze the use of natural gas, methanol and hydrogen as transportation fuels. The fourth paper presents the development of a World Trade Model with Bilateral Trade, an extension of the World Trade Model (Duchin, 2005). The model is based on comparative advantage and is formulated as a linear program. It endogenously determines the regional output of sectors and bilateral trade flows between regions. The model may be considered a Leontief substitution model where substitution of production is allowed between regions. The primal objective of the model requires the minimization of global factor costs. The fifth paper demonstrates how the World Trade Model with Bilateral Trade can be applied to address questions relevant for industrial ecology. The model is

  4. Mess management in microbial ecology: Rhetorical processes of disciplinary integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCracken, Christopher W.

    As interdisciplinary work becomes more common in the sciences, research into the rhetorical processes mediating disciplinary integration becomes more vital. This dissertation, which takes as its subject the integration of microbiology and ecology, combines a postplural approach to rhetoric of science research with Victor Turner's "social drama" analysis and a third-generation activity theory methodological framework to identify conceptual and practical conflicts in interdisciplinary work and describe how, through visual and verbal communication, scientists negotiate these conflicts. First, to understand the conflicting disciplinary principles that might impede integration, the author conducts a Turnerian analysis of a disciplinary conflict that took place in the 1960s and 70s, during which American ecologists and biologists debated whether they should participate in the International Biological Program (IBP). Participation in the IBP ultimately contributed to the emergence of ecology as a discipline distinct from biology, and Turnerian social drama analysis of the debate surrounding participation lays bare the conflicting principles separating biology and ecology. Second, to answer the question of how these conflicting principles are negotiated in practice, the author reports on a yearlong qualitative study of scientists working in a microbial ecology laboratory. Focusing specifically on two case studies from this fieldwork that illustrate the key concept of textually mediated disciplinary integration, the author's analysis demonstrates how scientific objects emerge in differently situated practices, and how these objects manage to cohere despite their multiplicity through textually mediated rhetorical processes of calibration and alignment.

  5. Eco-Logic: Logic-Based Approaches to Ecological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel L. Schmoldt

    1991-01-01

    This paper summarizes the simulation research carried out during 1984-1989 at the University of Edinburgh. Two primary objectives of their research are 1) to provide tools for manipulating simulation models (i.e., implementation tools) and 2) to provide advice on conceptualizing real-world phenomena into an idealized representation for simulation (i.e., model design...

  6. Investigating ecological speciation in non-model organisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foote, Andrew David

    2012-01-01

    Background: Studies of ecological speciation tend to focus on a few model biological systems. In contrast, few studies on non-model organisms have been able to infer ecological speciation as the underlying mechanism of evolutionary divergence. Questions: What are the pitfalls in studying ecological...... speciation in non-model organisms that lead to this bias? What alternative approaches might redress the balance? Organism: Genetically differentiated types of the killer whale (Orcinus orca) exhibiting differences in prey preference, habitat use, morphology, and behaviour. Methods: Review of the literature...... on killer whale evolutionary ecology in search of any difficulty in demonstrating causal links between variation in phenotype, ecology, and reproductive isolation in this non-model organism. Results: At present, we do not have enough evidence to conclude that adaptive phenotype traits linked to ecological...

  7. Improving communication and validation of ecological models : a case study on the dispersal of aquatic macroinvertebrates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Augusiak, Jacqueline A.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, ecological effect models have been put forward as tools for supporting environmental decision-making. Often they are the only way to take the relevant spatial and temporal scales and the multitude of processes characteristic to ecological systems into account. Particularly for

  8. ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF REFINING PROCESSING OF SILUMINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Rumjantseva

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Application of the method of mathematical planning of experiments enabled to receive dependences of mechanical characteristics of alloy AK9 in cast state, grade of porosity by the scale VIAM and quantity of escaping dust at flux processing on composition of fining flux metal. The composition of fining flux metal, providing minimum dust discharge and way of assessment of degree of discharge harmfulness by the amount of ecological tax is offered.

  9. Hierarchical structure of ecological and non-ecological processes of differentiation shaped ongoing gastropod radiation in the Malawi Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Bocxlaer, Bert

    2017-09-13

    Ecological processes, non-ecological processes or a combination of both may cause reproductive isolation and speciation, but their specific roles and potentially complex interactions in evolutionary radiations remain poorly understood, which defines a central knowledge gap at the interface of microevolution and macroevolution. Here I examine genome scans in combination with phenotypic and environmental data to disentangle how ecological and non-ecological processes contributed to population differentiation and speciation in an ongoing radiation of Lanistes gastropods from the Malawi Basin. I found a remarkable hierarchical structure of differentiation mechanisms in space and time: neutral and mutation-order processes are older and occur mainly between regions, whereas more recent adaptive processes are the main driver of genetic differentiation and reproductive isolation within regions. The strongest differentiation occurs between habitats and between regions, i.e. when ecological and non-ecological processes act synergistically. The structured occurrence of these processes based on the specific geographical setting and ecological opportunities strongly influenced the potential for evolutionary radiation. The results highlight the importance of interactions between various mechanisms of differentiation in evolutionary radiations, and suggest that non-ecological processes are important in adaptive radiations, including those of cichlids. Insight into such interactions is critical to understanding large-scale patterns of organismal diversity. © 2017 The Author(s).

  10. Simulating water quality and ecological status of Lake Vansjø, Norway, under land-use and climate change by linking process-oriented models with a Bayesian network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couture, Raoul-Marie; Moe, S Jannicke; Lin, Yan; Kaste, Øyvind; Haande, Sigrid; Lyche Solheim, Anne

    2018-04-15

    Excess nutrient inputs and climate change are two of multiple stressors affecting many lakes worldwide. Lake Vansjø in southern Norway is one such eutrophic lake impacted by blooms of toxic blue-green algae (cyanobacteria), and classified as moderate ecological status under the EU Water Framework Directive. Future climate change may exacerbate the situation. Here we use a set of chained models (global climate model, hydrological model, catchment phosphorus (P) model, lake model, Bayesian Network) to assess the possible future ecological status of the lake, given the set of climate scenarios and storylines common to the EU project MARS (Managing Aquatic Ecosystems and Water Resources under Multiple Stress). The model simulations indicate that climate change alone will increase precipitation and runoff, and give higher P fluxes to the lake, but cause little increase in phytoplankton biomass or changes in ecological status. For the storylines of future management and land-use, however, the model results indicate that both the phytoplankton biomass and the lake ecological status can be positively or negatively affected. Our results also show the value in predicting a biological indicator of lake ecological status, in this case, cyanobacteria biomass with a BN model. For all scenarios, cyanobacteria contribute to worsening the status assessed by phytoplankton, compared to using chlorophyll-a alone. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Southern marl prairies conceptual ecological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S.M.; Loftus, W.F.; Gaiser, E.E.; Huffman, A.E.

    2005-01-01

    About 190,000 ha of higher-elevation marl prairies flank either side of Shark River Slough in the southern Everglades. Water levels typically drop below the ground surface each year in this landscape. Consequently, peat soil accretion is inhibited, and substrates consist either of calcitic marl produced by algal periphyton mats or exposed limestone bedrock. The southern marl prairies support complex mosaics of wet prairie, sawgrass sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense), tree islands, and tropical hammock communities and a high diversity of plant species. However, relatively short hydroperiods and annual dry downs provide stressful conditions for aquatic fauna, affecting survival in the dry season when surface water is absent. Here, we present a conceptual ecological model developed for this landscape through scientific concensus, use of empirical data, and modeling. The two major societal drivers affecting the southern marl prairies are water management practices and agricultural and urban development. These drivers lead to five groups of ecosystem stressors: loss of spatial extent and connectivity, shortened hydroperiod and increased drought severity, extended hydroperiod and drying pattern reversals, introduction and spread of non-native trees, and introduction and spread of non-native fishes. Major ecological attributes include periphyton mats, plant species diversity and community mosaic, Cape Sable seaside sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), marsh fishes and associated aquatic fauna prey base, American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis), and wading bird early dry season foraging. Water management and development are hypothesized to have a negative effect on the ecological attributes of the southern marl prairies in the following ways. Periphyton mats have decreased in cover in areas where hydroperiod has been significantly reduced and changed in community composition due to inverse responses to increased nutrient availability. Plant species diversity and

  12. Application of genetic algorithm in radio ecological models parameter determination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pantelic, G. [Institute of Occupatioanl Health and Radiological Protection ' Dr Dragomir Karajovic' , Belgrade (Serbia)

    2006-07-01

    The method of genetic algorithms was used to determine the biological half-life of 137 Cs in cow milk after the accident in Chernobyl. Methodologically genetic algorithms are based on the fact that natural processes tend to optimize themselves and therefore this method should be more efficient in providing optimal solutions in the modeling of radio ecological and environmental events. The calculated biological half-life of 137 Cs in milk is (32 {+-} 3) days and transfer coefficient from grass to milk is (0.019 {+-} 0.005). (authors)

  13. Application of genetic algorithm in radio ecological models parameter determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pantelic, G.

    2006-01-01

    The method of genetic algorithms was used to determine the biological half-life of 137 Cs in cow milk after the accident in Chernobyl. Methodologically genetic algorithms are based on the fact that natural processes tend to optimize themselves and therefore this method should be more efficient in providing optimal solutions in the modeling of radio ecological and environmental events. The calculated biological half-life of 137 Cs in milk is (32 ± 3) days and transfer coefficient from grass to milk is (0.019 ± 0.005). (authors)

  14. Applied systems ecology: models, data, and statistical methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eberhardt, L L

    1976-01-01

    In this report, systems ecology is largely equated to mathematical or computer simulation modelling. The need for models in ecology stems from the necessity to have an integrative device for the diversity of ecological data, much of which is observational, rather than experimental, as well as from the present lack of a theoretical structure for ecology. Different objectives in applied studies require specialized methods. The best predictive devices may be regression equations, often non-linear in form, extracted from much more detailed models. A variety of statistical aspects of modelling, including sampling, are discussed. Several aspects of population dynamics and food-chain kinetics are described, and it is suggested that the two presently separated approaches should be combined into a single theoretical framework. It is concluded that future efforts in systems ecology should emphasize actual data and statistical methods, as well as modelling.

  15. Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cressie, Noel; Calder, Catherine A; Clark, James S; Ver Hoef, Jay M; Wikle, Christopher K

    2009-04-01

    Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

  16. Conservation success as a function of good alignment of social and ecological structures and processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodin, Orjan; Crona, Beatrice; Thyresson, Matilda; Golz, Anna-Lea; Tengö, Maria

    2014-10-01

    How to create and adjust governing institutions so that they align (fit) with complex ecosystem processes and structures across scales is an issue of increasing concern in conservation. It is argued that lack of such social-ecological fit makes governance and conservation difficult, yet progress in explicitly defining and rigorously testing what constitutes a good fit has been limited. We used a novel modeling approach and data from case studies of fishery and forest conservation to empirically test presumed relationships between conservation outcomes and certain patterns of alignment of social-ecological interdependences. Our approach made it possible to analyze conservation outcome on a systems level while also providing information on how individual actors are positioned in the complex web of social-ecological interdependencies. We found that when actors who shared resources were also socially linked, conservation at the level of the whole social-ecological system was positively affected. When the scales at which individual actors used resources and the scale at which ecological resources were interconnected to other ecological resources were aligned through tightened feedback loops, conservation outcome was better than when they were not aligned. The analysis of individual actors' positions in the web of social-ecological interdependencies was helpful in understanding why a system has a certain level of social-ecological fit. Results of analysis of positions showed that different actors contributed in very different ways to achieve a certain fit and revealed some underlying difference between the actors, for example in terms of actors' varying rights to access and use different ecological resources. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  17. Double coupling: modeling subjectivity and asymmetric organization in social-ecological systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Manuel-Navarrete

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Social-ecological organization is a multidimensional phenomenon that combines material and symbolic processes. However, the coupling between social and ecological subsystem is often conceptualized as purely material, thus reducing the symbolic dimension to its behavioral and actionable expressions. In this paper I conceptualize social-ecological systems as doubly coupled. On the one hand, material expressions of socio-cultural processes affect and are affected by ecological dynamics. On the other hand, coupled social-ecological material dynamics are concurrently coupled with subjective dynamics via coding, decoding, personal experience, and human agency. This second coupling operates across two organizationally heterogeneous dimensions: material and symbolic. Although resilience thinking builds on the recognition of organizational asymmetry between living and nonliving systems, it has overlooked the equivalent asymmetry between ecological and socio-cultural subsystems. Three guiding concepts are proposed to formalize double coupling. The first one, social-ecological asymmetry, expands on past seminal work on ecological self-organization to incorporate reflexivity and subjectivity in social-ecological modeling. Organizational asymmetry is based in the distinction between social rules, which are symbolically produced and changed through human agents' reflexivity and purpose, and biophysical rules, which are determined by functional relations between ecological components. The second guiding concept, conscious power, brings to the fore human agents' distinctive capacity to produce our own subjective identity and the consequences of this capacity for social-ecological organization. The third concept, congruence between subjective and objective dynamics, redefines sustainability as contingent on congruent relations between material and symbolic processes. Social-ecological theories and analyses based on these three guiding concepts would support the

  18. From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounsevell, M D A; Robinson, D T; Murray-Rust, D

    2012-01-19

    The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept.

  19. Modelling dendritic ecological networks in space: anintegrated network perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Isaak, Dan J.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jordon, Chris E.; McNyset, Kristina; Monestiez, Pascal; Ruesch, Aaron S.; Sengupta, Aritra; Som, Nicholas; Steel, E. Ashley; Theobald, David M.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Wenger, Seth J.

    2013-01-01

    Dendritic ecological networks (DENs) are a unique form of ecological networks that exhibit a dendritic network topology (e.g. stream and cave networks or plant architecture). DENs have a dual spatial representation; as points within the network and as points in geographical space. Consequently, some analytical methods used to quantify relationships in other types of ecological networks, or in 2-D space, may be inadequate for studying the influence of structure and connectivity on ecological processes within DENs. We propose a conceptual taxonomy of network analysis methods that account for DEN characteristics to varying degrees and provide a synthesis of the different approaches within

  20. A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Domains of Applicability of Ecological Models and its Implementation in the Ecological Production Function Library - International Society for Ecological Modelling Conference

    Science.gov (United States)

    The use of computational ecological models to inform environmental management and policy has proliferated in the past 25 years. These models have become essential tools as linkages and feedbacks between human actions and ecological responses can be complex, and as funds for sampl...

  1. On the general procedure for modelling complex ecological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Shanyu.

    1987-12-01

    In this paper, the principle of a general procedure for modelling complex ecological systems, i.e. the Adaptive Superposition Procedure (ASP) is shortly stated. The result of application of ASP in a national project for ecological regionalization is also described. (author). 3 refs

  2. Validation of ecological state space models using the Laplace approximation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard; Berg, Casper Willestofte

    2017-01-01

    Many statistical models in ecology follow the state space paradigm. For such models, the important step of model validation rarely receives as much attention as estimation or hypothesis testing, perhaps due to lack of available algorithms and software. Model validation is often based on a naive...... for estimation in general mixed effects models. Implementing one-step predictions in the R package Template Model Builder, we demonstrate that it is possible to perform model validation with little effort, even if the ecological model is multivariate, has non-linear dynamics, and whether observations...... useful directions in which the model could be improved....

  3. Hydrodynamic and Ecological Assessment of Nearshore Restoration: A Modeling Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Sobocinski, Kathryn L.; Heatwole, Danelle W.; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Thom, Ronald M.; Fuller, Roger

    2010-01-01

    Along the Pacific Northwest coast, much of the estuarine habitat has been diked over the last century for agricultural land use, residential and commercial development, and transportation corridors. As a result, many of the ecological processes and functions have been disrupted. To protect coastal habitats that are vital to aquatic species, many restoration projects are currently underway to restore the estuarine and coastal ecosystems through dike breaches, setbacks, and removals. Information on physical processes and hydrodynamic conditions are critical for the assessment of the success of restoration actions. Restoration of a 160- acre property at the mouth of the Stillaguamish River in Puget Sound has been proposed. The goal is to restore native tidal habitats and estuary-scale ecological processes by removing the dike. In this study, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was developed for the Stillaguamish River estuary to simulate estuarine processes. The model was calibrated to observed tide, current, and salinity data for existing conditions and applied to simulate the hydrodynamic responses to two restoration alternatives. Responses were evaluated at the scale of the restoration footprint. Model data was combined with biophysical data to predict habitat responses at the site. Results showed that the proposed dike removal would result in desired tidal flushing and conditions that would support four habitat types on the restoration footprint. At the estuary scale, restoration would substantially increase the proportion of area flushed with freshwater (< 5 ppt) at flood tide. Potential implications of predicted changes in salinity and flow dynamics are discussed relative to the distribution of tidal marsh habitat.

  4. Ecological Vulnerability Assessment Based on Fuzzy Analytical Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process in Yellow River Delta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Chunsheng; Liu, Gaohuan; Huang, Chong; Liu, Qingsheng; Guan, Xudong

    2018-04-25

    The Yellow River Delta (YRD), located in Yellow River estuary, is characterized by rich ecological system types, and provides habitats or migration stations for wild birds, all of which makes the delta an ecological barrier or ecotone for inland areas. Nevertheless, the abundant natural resources of YRD have brought huge challenges to the area, and frequent human activities and natural disasters have damaged the ecological systems seriously, and certain ecological functions have been threatened. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the status of the ecological environment based on scientific methods, which can provide scientifically robust data for the managers or stakeholders to adopt timely ecological protection measures. The aim of this study was to obtain the spatial distribution of the ecological vulnerability (EV) in YRD based on 21 indicators selected from underwater status, soil condition, land use, landform, vegetation cover, meteorological conditions, ocean influence, and social economy. In addition, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method was used to obtain the weights of the selected indicators, and a fuzzy logic model was constructed to obtain the result. The result showed that the spatial distribution of the EV grades was regular, while the fuzzy membership of EV decreased gradually from the coastline to inland area, especially around the river crossing, where it had the lowest EV. Along the coastline, the dikes had an obviously protective effect for the inner area, while the EV was higher in the area where no dikes were built. This result also showed that the soil condition and groundwater status were highly related to the EV spatially, with the correlation coefficients −0.55 and −0.74 respectively, and human activities had exerted considerable pressure on the ecological environment.

  5. The big data-big model (BDBM) challenges in ecological research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The field of ecology has become a big-data science in the past decades due to development of new sensors used in numerous studies in the ecological community. Many sensor networks have been established to collect data. For example, satellites, such as Terra and OCO-2 among others, have collected data relevant on global carbon cycle. Thousands of field manipulative experiments have been conducted to examine feedback of terrestrial carbon cycle to global changes. Networks of observations, such as FLUXNET, have measured land processes. In particular, the implementation of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), which is designed to network different kinds of sensors at many locations over the nation, will generate large volumes of ecological data every day. The raw data from sensors from those networks offer an unprecedented opportunity for accelerating advances in our knowledge of ecological processes, educating teachers and students, supporting decision-making, testing ecological theory, and forecasting changes in ecosystem services. Currently, ecologists do not have the infrastructure in place to synthesize massive yet heterogeneous data into resources for decision support. It is urgent to develop an ecological forecasting system that can make the best use of multiple sources of data to assess long-term biosphere change and anticipate future states of ecosystem services at regional and continental scales. Forecasting relies on big models that describe major processes that underlie complex system dynamics. Ecological system models, despite great simplification of the real systems, are still complex in order to address real-world problems. For example, Community Land Model (CLM) incorporates thousands of processes related to energy balance, hydrology, and biogeochemistry. Integration of massive data from multiple big data sources with complex models has to tackle Big Data-Big Model (BDBM) challenges. Those challenges include interoperability of multiple

  6. Effects of season on ecological processes in extensive earthen tilapia ponds in Southeastern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favaro, E G P; Sipaúba-Tavares, L H; Milstein, A

    2015-11-01

    In Southeastern Brazil tilapia culture is conducted in extensive and semi-intensive flow-through earthen ponds, being water availability and flow management different in the rainy and dry seasons. In this region lettuce wastes are a potential cheap input for tilapia culture. This study examined the ecological processes developing during the rainy and dry seasons in three extensive flow-through earthen tilapia ponds fertilized with lettuce wastes. Water quality, plankton and sediment parameters were sampled monthly during a year. Factor analysis was used to identify the ecological processes occurring within the ponds and to construct a conceptual graphic model of the pond ecosystem functioning during the rainy and dry seasons. Processes related to nitrogen cycling presented differences between both seasons while processes related to phosphorus cycling did not. Ecological differences among ponds were due to effects of wind protection by surrounding vegetation, organic loading entering, tilapia density and its grazing pressure on zooplankton. Differences in tilapia growth among ponds were related to stocking density and ecological process affecting tilapia food availability and intraspecific competition. Lettuce wastes addition into the ponds did not produce negative effects, thus this practice may be considered a disposal option and a low-cost input source for tilapia, at least at the amounts applied in this study.

  7. Using ecological production functions to link ecological processes to ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological production functions (EPFs) link ecosystems, stressors, and management actions to ecosystem services (ES) production. Although EPFs are acknowledged as being essential to improve environmental management, their use in ecological risk assessment has received relatively ...

  8. Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ternjej, Ivancica; Mihaljevic, Zlatko

    2017-10-01

    Ecology is a science that studies the mutual interactions between organisms and their environment. The fundamental subject of interest in ecology is the individual. Topics of interest to ecologists include the diversity, distribution and number of particular organisms, as well as cooperation and competition between organisms, both within and among ecosystems. Today, ecology is a multidisciplinary science. This is particularly true when the subject of interest is the ecosystem or biosphere, which requires the knowledge and input of biologists, chemists, physicists, geologists, geographists, climatologists, hydrologists and many other experts. Ecology is applied in a science of restoration, repairing disturbed sites through human intervention, in natural resource management, and in environmental impact assessments.

  9. Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Samdrup Jongkhar Initiative : a Model of Integrated Ecologically-friendly ... which endeavors to integrate social, economic, cultural and environmental objectives. ... Brown Cloud penetrates Bhutan : ambient air quality and trans-boundary ...

  10. Application of an Ecological Model for the Cibolo Creek Watershed

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Price, David

    2004-01-01

    The U.S. Army Engineer District, Fort Worth (CESWF) is involved in demon- strating the utility of an ecological model in the performance and interpretation of a comprehensive General Investigations (GI...

  11. From patterns to emerging processes in mechanistic urban ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shochat, Eyal; Warren, Paige S; Faeth, Stanley H; McIntyre, Nancy E; Hope, Diane

    2006-04-01

    Rapid urbanization has become an area of crucial concern in conservation owing to the radical changes in habitat structure and loss of species engendered by urban and suburban development. Here, we draw on recent mechanistic ecological studies to argue that, in addition to altered habitat structure, three major processes contribute to the patterns of reduced species diversity and elevated abundance of many species in urban environments. These activities, in turn, lead to changes in animal behavior, morphology and genetics, as well as in selection pressures on animals and plants. Thus, the key to understanding urban patterns is to balance studying processes at the individual level with an integrated examination of environmental forces at the ecosystem scale.

  12. Semantic Business Process Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Markovic, Ivan

    2010-01-01

    This book presents a process-oriented business modeling framework based on semantic technologies. The framework consists of modeling languages, methods, and tools that allow for semantic modeling of business motivation, business policies and rules, and business processes. Quality of the proposed modeling framework is evaluated based on the modeling content of SAP Solution Composer and several real-world business scenarios.

  13. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar, Luis E; Craft, Meggan E

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks.

  14. Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA : Part III

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costanza, Robert; Voinov, Alexey

    2001-01-01

    This special issue contains a group of eight modeling studies covering a range of ecological and economic systems and problems. The models were all developed using Stella®, an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling. Models included in the special issue were

  15. Ecological processes in the cycling of radionuclides within arctic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, W.C.

    1986-01-01

    Worldwide fallout radionuclides in arctic ecosystems was investigated ecologically by circumpolar nations during 1959-80. Several of the radionuclides are isotopes of elements which currently contribute to arctic haze; they thus serve as effective tracers of biogeochemical processes. Investigations demonstrated the effective concentration of several radionuclides, particularly strontium-90 (an alkaline earth metal) and cesium-137 (a light alkali metal) which are chemical analogs of calcium and potassium, two very important stable elements in biotic systems. Transfer of 137 Cs through the lichen-cariboureindeer-man food chain characteristic of circumpolar nations, resulted in body burdens in Inuit that were 20 to 200 times greater than those in human populations of temperature latitudes. Radiation exposures from 90 Sr, 137 Cs and other natural and worldwide fallout radionuclides, were two to three times greater than for most other world populations. These results demonstrate the concentration capabilities of arctic ecosystems for several groups of chemical elements that have counterparts in arctic haze. These elements, therefore, provide the basis for considering the ecological implications of current situations

  16. [Process of land use transition and its impact on regional ecological quality in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fu Hong; Zhao, Rui Feng; Zhang, Li Hua; Li, Hong Wei

    2017-12-01

    Land use transition is one of the main drivers of regional ecosystem change in arid area, which directly affects human well-being. Based on the satellite images of 1987, 2001 and 2016, the change detection assessment model and ecological response model were used to analyze the process of land use transition and response of ecological quality during 1987-2016 in the ecologically fragile middle reaches of the Heihe River. The results showed that the land use change was significant during 1987-2016 and the total change increased significantly, as well as the continuous increase of the cultivated land and construction land. There was a strong tendency of transform from grassland to cultivated land, while the tendency of transforming unused land to other land classes was not strong under a random process of gain or loss. During 1987-2016, the ecological quality of the study area displayed a decreasing trend as a whole and the ecological land decreased by 2.8%. The land use transition with the greatest impact on the ecological environment degradation was the transition of the grassland to the cultivated land and unused land. Therefore, in order to promote the sustainable use of regional land resources and to improve the regional ecological quality, it is necessary to allocate the proportion of production land and ecological land according to the regional water resources.

  17. A brief introduction to mixed effects modelling and multi-model inference in ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Xavier A; Donaldson, Lynda; Correa-Cano, Maria Eugenia; Evans, Julian; Fisher, David N; Goodwin, Cecily E D; Robinson, Beth S; Hodgson, David J; Inger, Richard

    2018-01-01

    The use of linear mixed effects models (LMMs) is increasingly common in the analysis of biological data. Whilst LMMs offer a flexible approach to modelling a broad range of data types, ecological data are often complex and require complex model structures, and the fitting and interpretation of such models is not always straightforward. The ability to achieve robust biological inference requires that practitioners know how and when to apply these tools. Here, we provide a general overview of current methods for the application of LMMs to biological data, and highlight the typical pitfalls that can be encountered in the statistical modelling process. We tackle several issues regarding methods of model selection, with particular reference to the use of information theory and multi-model inference in ecology. We offer practical solutions and direct the reader to key references that provide further technical detail for those seeking a deeper understanding. This overview should serve as a widely accessible code of best practice for applying LMMs to complex biological problems and model structures, and in doing so improve the robustness of conclusions drawn from studies investigating ecological and evolutionary questions.

  18. Modeling multiphase materials processes

    CERN Document Server

    Iguchi, Manabu

    2010-01-01

    ""Modeling Multiphase Materials Processes: Gas-Liquid Systems"" describes the methodology and application of physical and mathematical modeling to multi-phase flow phenomena in materials processing. The book focuses on systems involving gas-liquid interaction, the most prevalent in current metallurgical processes. The performance characteristics of these processes are largely dependent on transport phenomena. This volume covers the inherent characteristics that complicate the modeling of transport phenomena in such systems, including complex multiphase structure, intense turbulence, opacity of

  19. [Assessment on the ecological suitability in Zhuhai City, Guangdong, China, based on minimum cumulative resistance model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jian-fei; Li, Lin; Guo, Luo; Du, Shi-hong

    2016-01-01

    Urban landscape has the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity. Because the expansion process of urban constructive or ecological land has different resistance values, the land unit stimulates and promotes the expansion of ecological land with different intensity. To compare the effect of promoting and hindering functions in the same land unit, we firstly compared the minimum cumulative resistance value of promoting and hindering functions, and then looked for the balance of two landscape processes under the same standard. According to the ecology principle of minimum limit factor, taking the minimum cumulative resistance analysis method under two expansion processes as the evaluation method of urban land ecological suitability, this research took Zhuhai City as the study area to estimate urban ecological suitability by relative evaluation method with remote sensing image, field survey, and statistics data. With the support of ArcGIS, five types of indicators on landscape types, ecological value, soil erosion sensitivity, sensitivity of geological disasters, and ecological function were selected as input parameters in the minimum cumulative resistance model to compute urban ecological suitability. The results showed that the ecological suitability of the whole Zhuhai City was divided into five levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (10.1%), constructive expansion restricted zone (32.9%), key construction zone (36.3%), priority development zone (2.3%), and basic cropland (18.4%). Ecological suitability of the central area of Zhuhai City was divided into four levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (11.6%), constructive expansion restricted zone (25.6%), key construction zone (52.4%), priority development zone (10.4%). Finally, we put forward the sustainable development framework of Zhuhai City according to the research conclusion. On one hand, the government should strictly control the development of the urban center area. On the other hand, the

  20. Comparison of models used for ecological risk assessment and human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryti, R.T.; Gallegos, A.F.

    1994-01-01

    Models are used to derive action levels for site screening, or to estimate potential ecological or human health risks posed by potentially hazardous sites. At the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), which is RCRA-regulated, the human-health screening action levels are based on hazardous constituents described in RCRA Subpart S and RESRAD-derived soil guidelines (based on 10 mRem/year) for radiological constituents. Also, an ecological risk screening model was developed for a former firing site, where the primary constituents include depleted uranium, beryllium and lead. Sites that fail the screening models are evaluated with site-specific human risk assessment (using RESRAD and other approaches) and a detailed ecological effect model (ECOTRAN). ECOTRAN is based on pharmacokinetics transport modeling within a multitrophic-level biological-growth dynamics model. ECOTRAN provides detailed temporal records of contaminant concentrations in biota, and annual averages of these body burdens are compared to equivalent site-specific runs of the RESRAD model. The results show that thoughtful interpretation of the results of these models must be applied before they can be used for evaluation of current risk posed by sites and the benefits of various remedial options. This presentation compares the concentrations of biological media in the RESRAD screening runs to the concentrations in ecological endpoints predicted by the ecological screening model. The assumptions and limitations of these screening models and the decision process where these are screening models are applied are discussed

  1. Naval Research Laboratory Ecological -- Photochemical -- Bio-optical--Numerical Experiment (Neptune) Version 1: A Portable, Flexible Modeling Environment Designed to Resolve Time-dependent Feedbacks Between Upper Ocean Ecology, Photochemistry, and Optics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jolliff, Jason K; Kindle, John C

    2007-01-01

    A modeling system has been constructed that combines ecological element cycling, photochemical processes, and bio-optical processes into a single simulation that may be coupled to hydrodynamic models...

  2. Microbial ecology and starter culture technology in coffee processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinícius de Melo Pereira, Gilberto; Soccol, Vanete Thomaz; Brar, Satinder Kaur; Neto, Ensei; Soccol, Carlos Ricardo

    2017-09-02

    Coffee has been for decades the most commercialized food product and most widely consumed beverage in the world, with over 600 billion cups served per year. Before coffee cherries can be traded and processed into a final industrial product, they have to undergo postharvest processing on farms, which have a direct impact on the cost and quality of a coffee. Three different methods can be used for transforming the coffee cherries into beans, known as wet, dry, and semi-dry methods. In all these processing methods, a spontaneous fermentation is carried out in order to eliminate any mucilage still stuck to the beans and helps improve beverage flavor by microbial metabolites. The microorganisms responsible for the fermentation (e.g., yeasts and lactic acid bacteria) can play a number of roles, such as degradation of mucilage (pectinolytic activity), inhibition of mycotoxin-producing fungi growth, and production of flavor-active components. The use of starter cultures (mainly yeast strains) has emerged in recent years as a promising alternative to control the fermentation process and to promote quality development of coffee product. However, scarce information is still available about the effects of controlled starter cultures in coffee fermentation performance and bean quality, making it impossible to use this technology in actual field conditions. A broader knowledge about the ecology, biochemistry, and molecular biology could facilitate the understanding and application of starter cultures for coffee fermentation process. This review provides a comprehensive coverage of these issues, while pointing out new directions for exploiting starter cultures in coffee processing.

  3. Process modeling style

    CERN Document Server

    Long, John

    2014-01-01

    Process Modeling Style focuses on other aspects of process modeling beyond notation that are very important to practitioners. Many people who model processes focus on the specific notation used to create their drawings. While that is important, there are many other aspects to modeling, such as naming, creating identifiers, descriptions, interfaces, patterns, and creating useful process documentation. Experience author John Long focuses on those non-notational aspects of modeling, which practitioners will find invaluable. Gives solid advice for creating roles, work produ

  4. Product and Process Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cameron, Ian T.; Gani, Rafiqul

    . These approaches are put into the context of life cycle modelling, where multiscale and multiform modelling is increasingly prevalent in the 21st century. The book commences with a discussion of modern product and process modelling theory and practice followed by a series of case studies drawn from a variety......This book covers the area of product and process modelling via a case study approach. It addresses a wide range of modelling applications with emphasis on modelling methodology and the subsequent in-depth analysis of mathematical models to gain insight via structural aspects of the models...... to biotechnology applications, food, polymer and human health application areas. The book highlights to important nature of modern product and process modelling in the decision making processes across the life cycle. As such it provides an important resource for students, researchers and industrial practitioners....

  5. Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    B.G. Marcot; J.D. Steventon; G.D. Sutherland; R.K. McCann

    2006-01-01

    We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model...

  6. Using circuit theory to model connectivity in ecology, evolution, and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRae, Brad H; Dickson, Brett G; Keitt, Timothy H; Shah, Viral B

    2008-10-01

    Connectivity among populations and habitats is important for a wide range of ecological processes. Understanding, preserving, and restoring connectivity in complex landscapes requires connectivity models and metrics that are reliable, efficient, and process based. We introduce a new class of ecological connectivity models based in electrical circuit theory. Although they have been applied in other disciplines, circuit-theoretic connectivity models are new to ecology. They offer distinct advantages over common analytic connectivity models, including a theoretical basis in random walk theory and an ability to evaluate contributions of multiple dispersal pathways. Resistance, current, and voltage calculated across graphs or raster grids can be related to ecological processes (such as individual movement and gene flow) that occur across large population networks or landscapes. Efficient algorithms can quickly solve networks with millions of nodes, or landscapes with millions of raster cells. Here we review basic circuit theory, discuss relationships between circuit and random walk theories, and describe applications in ecology, evolution, and conservation. We provide examples of how circuit models can be used to predict movement patterns and fates of random walkers in complex landscapes and to identify important habitat patches and movement corridors for conservation planning.

  7. Standard Model processes

    CERN Document Server

    Mangano, M.L.; Aguilar-Saavedra, Juan Antonio; Alekhin, S.; Badger, S.; Bauer, C.W.; Becher, T.; Bertone, V.; Bonvini, M.; Boselli, S.; Bothmann, E.; Boughezal, R.; Cacciari, M.; Carloni Calame, C.M.; Caola, F.; Campbell, J.M.; Carrazza, S.; Chiesa, M.; Cieri, L.; Cimaglia, F.; Febres Cordero, F.; Ferrarese, P.; D'Enterria, D.; Ferrera, G.; Garcia i Tormo, X.; Garzelli, M.V.; Germann, E.; Hirschi, V.; Han, T.; Ita, H.; Jäger, B.; Kallweit, S.; Karlberg, A.; Kuttimalai, S.; Krauss, F.; Larkoski, A.J.; Lindert, J.; Luisoni, G.; Maierhöfer, P.; Mattelaer, O.; Martinez, H.; Moch, S.; Montagna, G.; Moretti, M.; Nason, P.; Nicrosini, O.; Oleari, C.; Pagani, D.; Papaefstathiou, A.; Petriello, F.; Piccinini, F.; Pierini, M.; Pierog, T.; Pozzorini, S.; Re, E.; Robens, T.; Rojo, J.; Ruiz, R.; Sakurai, K.; Salam, G.P.; Salfelder, L.; Schönherr, M.; Schulze, M.; Schumann, S.; Selvaggi, M.; Shivaji, A.; Siodmok, A.; Skands, P.; Torrielli, P.; Tramontano, F.; Tsinikos, I.; Tweedie, B.; Vicini, A.; Westhoff, S.; Zaro, M.; Zeppenfeld, D.; CERN. Geneva. ATS Department

    2017-06-22

    This report summarises the properties of Standard Model processes at the 100 TeV pp collider. We document the production rates and typical distributions for a number of benchmark Standard Model processes, and discuss new dynamical phenomena arising at the highest energies available at this collider. We discuss the intrinsic physics interest in the measurement of these Standard Model processes, as well as their role as backgrounds for New Physics searches.

  8. Improving the reviewing process in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grossman, G. D.

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available I discuss current issues in reviewing and editorial practices in ecology and evolutionary biology and suggest possible solutions for current problems. The reviewing crisis is unlikely to change unless steps are taken by journals to provide greater inclusiveness and incentives to reviewers. In addition, both journals and institutions should reduce their emphasis on publication numbers (least publishable units and impact factors and focus instead on article synthesis and quality which will require longer publications. Academic and research institutions should consider reviewing manuscripts and editorial positions an important part of a researcher’s professional activities and reward them accordingly. Rewarding reviewers either monetarily or via other incentives such as free journal subscriptions may encourage participation in the reviewing process for both profit and non–profit journals. Reviewer performance will likely be improved by measures that increase inclusiveness, such as sending reviews and decision letters to reviewers. Journals may be able to evaluate the efficacy of their reviewing process by comparing citations of rejected but subsequently published papers with those published within the journal at similar times. Finally, constructive reviews: 1 identify important shortcomings and suggest solutions when possible, 2 distinguish trivial from non–trivial problems, and 3 include editor’s evaluations of the reviews including identification of trivial versus substantive comments (i.e., those that must be addressed.

  9. Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations - the EALCO model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Zhang, Y.; Trishchenko, A.

    2004-05-01

    Ecosystems are intrinsically dynamic and interact with climate at a highly integrated level. Climate variables are the main driving factors in controlling the ecosystem physical, physiological, and biogeochemical processes including energy balance, water balance, photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrient cycling. On the other hand, ecosystems function as an integrity and feedback on the climate system through their control on surface radiation balance, energy partitioning, and greenhouse gases exchange. To improve our capability in climate change impact assessment, a comprehensive ecosystem model is required to address the many interactions between climate change and ecosystems. In addition, different ecosystems can have very different responses to the climate change and its variation. To provide more scientific support for ecosystem impact assessment at national scale, it is imperative that ecosystem models have the capability of assimilating the large scale geospatial information including satellite observations, GIS datasets, and climate model outputs or reanalysis. The EALCO model (Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations) is developed for such purposes. EALCO includes the comprehensive interactions among ecosystem processes and climate, and assimilates a variety of remote sensing products and GIS database. It provides both national and local scale model outputs for ecosystem responses to climate change including radiation and energy balances, water conditions and hydrological cycles, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas exchange, and nutrient (N) cycling. These results form the foundation for the assessment of climate change impact on ecosystems, their services, and adaptation options. In this poster, the main algorithms for the radiation, energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen simulations were diagrammed. Sample input data layers at Canada national scale were illustrated. Model outputs including the Canada wide spatial distributions of net

  10. Ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalusche, D.

    1978-01-01

    The book turns to the freshment, the teacher, for preparation of ecological topics for lessons, but also to pupils of the secondary stage II, and the main course ecology. The book was knowingly held simple with the restriction to: the ecosystem and its abiotic basic functions, simple articles on population biology, bioceonotic balance ith the questions of niche formation and the life form types coherent with it, of the substance and energy household, the production biology and space-wise and time-wise differentations within an ecological system form the main points. A central role in the volume is given to the illustrations. Their variety is to show and deepen the coherences shown. (orig./HP) [de

  11. Monitoring the Long-Term Performance of Engineered Containment Systems: Role of Ecological Processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Traynham, B.; Clarke, J.H.; Burger, J.; Waugh, J.

    2009-01-01

    Engineered covers have been widely used to minimize water infiltration into landfills used by U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the disposal of radioactive and hazardous chemical waste. The degradation of engineered covers over time is a complex process that is influenced by site specific characteristics, the structure and dynamics of the indigenous plant community, and the interplay of physical and biological factors at contaminated sites. It is necessary to develop a rigorous method to evaluate long-term performance of covers and other engineered barriers with quantification of risk and uncertainty. Because many of the contaminants of concern are long-lived, this methodology must consider changes in the environmental setting (e.g., precipitation, temperature) and cover components for long time periods (>100 years). Current monitoring approaches focus solely on hydrologic properties of the cover system. Additionally, cover design guidelines, such as those from RCRA, are not performance based and do not consider long-term site-specific influences such as climate, vegetation, and soils. Fundamental ecological processes such as succession are not even factored into current models, yet they directly affect the integrity of landfill covers through biointrusion, erosion, and water balance. Therefore, it is useful to identify ecological parameters and processes most important to performance for prioritization of site characterization and long-term monitoring activities. This investigation into the role of ecological monitoring of isolation containment systems utilizes the software platform GoldSim to identify important parameters and processes for performance verification and monitoring. (authors)

  12. Ecological model of the interprise danger of gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadygov, A.B.

    2009-01-01

    It has been looked into the basic problems for establishment of ecological model of the enterprise danger of gas. There have been established mathematical model in the base of equation of Novye-Stoks which consists of private reproductive second row differential equation system of three

  13. Stress and adaptation : Toward ecologically relevant animal models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koolhaas, Jaap M.; Boer, Sietse F. de; Buwalda, Bauke

    Animal models have contributed considerably to the current understanding of mechanisms underlying the role of stress in health and disease. Despite the progress made already, much more can be made by more carefully exploiting animals' and humans' shared biology, using ecologically relevant models.

  14. Ecologization Processes in Society Today: the Challenge of Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurelija Samoškienė

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Negative impact on the environment made by human activity is discussed in this article as well as main problems caused by interaction with negative environmental changes. Ecologization conception and its evolution are analyzed chronologically. Key perspectives of scientific research in the ecologization field are determined; the context of today’s society is taken into account.Article in Lithuanian

  15. Multimodeling: new approaches for linking ecological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Louis J.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Scott, J. Michael; Heglund, Patricia J.; Morrison, Michael L.

    2006-01-01

    The Everglades region of South Florida presents one of the major natural system management challenges facing the United States. With its assortment of alligators, crocodiles, manatees, panthers, large mixed flocks of wading birds, highly diverse subtropical flora, and sea of sawgrass, the ecosystem is unique in this country (Davis and Ogden 1994). The region is also perhaps the largest human-controlled system on the planet in that the major environmental factor influencing the region is water, and water flows are managed on a daily basis--subject to the vagaries of rainfall--by a massive system of locks, pumps, canals, and levees constructed over the past century. The changes brought about by such control have led to extensive modifications of historical patterns and magnitudes of flow, causing large declines in many native species, extensive changes in nutrient cycling and vegetation across south Florida, and great increases in pollutants such as mercury. Constrained by the conflicting demands of agriculture, urban human populations, and wildlife for control of water resources, and the varying agendas of hosts of government agencies and nongovernmental organizations, there is now an ongoing effort to plan for major changes to the system with expenditure estimates of eight billion dollars or more over the next several decades (USACOE 1999). Carrying out such planning, particularly as it impacts the natural systems of the region, provides one of the major challenges to the new field of computational ecology.

  16. Ecological Niche Modelling of Bank Voles in Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Amirpour Haredasht

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The bank vole (Myodes glareolus is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS called nephropathia epidemica (NE. Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%. The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ2 tests, p < 10−6. As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole’s population.

  17. Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amirpour Haredasht, Sara; Barrios, Miguel; Farifteh, Jamshid; Maes, Piet; Clement, Jan; Verstraeten, Willem W; Tersago, Katrien; Van Ranst, Marc; Coppin, Pol; Berckmans, Daniel; Aerts, Jean-Marie

    2013-01-28

    The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV) in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) called nephropathia epidemica (NE). Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude) in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%). The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ(2) tests, p < 10(-6)). As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole's population.

  18. Microbial ecology of the Agaricus bisporus mushroom cropping process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Conor F

    2018-02-01

    Agaricus bisporus is the most widely cultivated mushroom species in the world. Cultivation is commenced by inoculating beds of semi-pasteurised composted organic substrate with a pure spawn of A. bisporus. The A. bisporus mycelium subsequently colonises the composted substrate by degrading the organic material to release nutrients. A layer of peat, often called "casing soil", is laid upon the surface of the composted substrate to induce the development of the mushroom crop and maintain compost environmental conditions. Extensive research has been conducted investigating the biochemistry and genetics of A. bisporus throughout the cultivation process; however, little is currently known about the wider microbial ecology that co-inhabits the composted substrate and casing layers. The compost and casing microbial communities are known to play important roles in the mushroom production process. Microbial species present in the compost and casing are known for (1) being an important source of nitrogen for the A. bisporus mycelium, (2) releasing sugar residues through the degradation of the wheat straw in the composted substrate, (3) playing a critical role in inducing development of the A. bisporus fruiting bodies and (4) acting as pathogens by parasitising the mushroom mycelium/crop. Despite a long history of research into the mushroom cropping process, an extensive review of the microbial communities present in the compost and casing has not as of yet been undertaken. The aim of this review is to provide a comprehensive summary of the literature investigating the compost and casing microbial communities throughout cultivation of the A. bisporus mushroom crop.

  19. Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I; Whitlock, Cathy

    2014-01-01

    Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity.

  20. Including Overweight or Obese Students in Physical Education: A Social Ecological Constraint Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Weidong; Rukavina, Paul

    2012-01-01

    In this review, we propose a social ecological constraint model to study inclusion of overweight or obese students in physical education by integrating key concepts and assumptions from ecological constraint theory in motor development and social ecological models in health promotion and behavior. The social ecological constraint model proposes…

  1. Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, C D; Bodsworth, E J; Wilson, R J; Simmons, A D; Davies, Z G; Musche, M; Conradt, L

    2001-05-31

    Many animals are regarded as relatively sedentary and specialized in marginal parts of their geographical distributions. They are expected to be slow at colonizing new habitats. Despite this, the cool margins of many species' distributions have expanded rapidly in association with recent climate warming. We examined four insect species that have expanded their geographical ranges in Britain over the past 20 years. Here we report that two butterfly species have increased the variety of habitat types that they can colonize, and that two bush cricket species show increased fractions of longer-winged (dispersive) individuals in recently founded populations. Both ecological and evolutionary processes are probably responsible for these changes. Increased habitat breadth and dispersal tendencies have resulted in about 3- to 15-fold increases in expansion rates, allowing these insects to cross habitat disjunctions that would have represented major or complete barriers to dispersal before the expansions started. The emergence of dispersive phenotypes will increase the speed at which species invade new environments, and probably underlies the responses of many species to both past and future climate change.

  2. Integration of research infrastructures and ecosystem models toward development of predictive ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.; Huang, Y.; Jiang, J.; MA, S.; Saruta, V.; Liang, G.; Hanson, P. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Milcu, A.; Roy, J.

    2017-12-01

    The past two decades have witnessed rapid development in sensor technology. Built upon the sensor development, large research infrastructure facilities, such as National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) and FLUXNET, have been established. Through networking different kinds of sensors and other data collections at many locations all over the world, those facilities generate large volumes of ecological data every day. The big data from those facilities offer an unprecedented opportunity for advancing our understanding of ecological processes, educating teachers and students, supporting decision-making, and testing ecological theory. The big data from the major research infrastructure facilities also provides foundation for developing predictive ecology. Indeed, the capability to predict future changes in our living environment and natural resources is critical to decision making in a world where the past is no longer a clear guide to the future. We are living in a period marked by rapid climate change, profound alteration of biogeochemical cycles, unsustainable depletion of natural resources, and deterioration of air and water quality. Projecting changes in future ecosystem services to the society becomes essential not only for science but also for policy making. We will use this panel format to outline major opportunities and challenges in integrating research infrastructure and ecosystem models toward developing predictive ecology. Meanwhile, we will also show results from an interactive model-experiment System - Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data into models (EcoPAD) - that have been implemented at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental change (SPRUCE) experiment in Northern Minnesota and Montpellier Ecotron, France. EcoPAD is developed by integrating web technology, eco-informatics, data assimilation techniques, and ecosystem modeling. EcoPAD is designed to streamline data transfer seamlessly from research infrastructure

  3. Integrated Spatio-Temporal Ecological Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-07-01

    models that we hold in our conscious (and subconscious ) minds. Chapter 3 explores how this approach is being augmented with the more formal capture...This approach makes it possible to add new simulation model components to I- STEMS without having to reprogram existing components. The steps required

  4. WWTP Process Tank Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Jesper

    The present thesis considers numerical modeling of activated sludge tanks on municipal wastewater treatment plants. Focus is aimed at integrated modeling where the detailed microbiological model the Activated Sludge Model 3 (ASM3) is combined with a detailed hydrodynamic model based on a numerical...... solution of the Navier-Stokes equations in a multiphase scheme. After a general introduction to the activated sludge tank as a system, the activated sludge tank model is gradually setup in separate stages. The individual sub-processes that are often occurring in activated sludge tanks are initially...... hydrofoil shaped propellers. These two sub-processes deliver the main part of the supplied energy to the activated sludge tank, and for this reason they are important for the mixing conditions in the tank. For other important processes occurring in the activated sludge tank, existing models and measurements...

  5. Empirically-based modeling and mapping to consider the co-occurrence of ecological receptors and stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Part of the ecological risk assessment process involves examining the potential for environmental stressors and ecological receptors to co-occur across a landscape. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian joint modeling framework for use in evaluating and mapping the co-occurrence...

  6. Preface to: Indian Ocean biogeochemical processes and ecological variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Hood, R.R.; Naqvi, S.W.A.; Wiggert, J.D.

    monsoonal in fluence. The biogeochemical and ecological impacts of this complex physical forcing are not yet fully understood. The Indian Ocean is truly one of the last great frontiers of ocea- nographic research. In addition, it appears... to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and anthropogenic impacts, yet it has been more than a decade since the last coordinated international study of biogeochemical and ecological proc esses was undertaken in this region. To obtain a better un...

  7. Forbidden versus permitted interactions: Disentangling processes from patterns in ecological network analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strona, Giovanni; Veech, Joseph A

    2017-07-01

    Several studies have identified the tendency for species to share interacting partners as a key property to the functioning and stability of ecological networks. However, assessing this pattern has proved challenging in several regards, such as finding proper metrics to assess node overlap (sharing), and using robust null modeling to disentangle significance from randomness. Here, we bring attention to an additional, largely neglected challenge in assessing species' tendency to share interacting partners. In particular, we discuss and illustrate with two different case studies how identifying the set of "permitted" interactions for a given species (i.e. interactions that are not impeded, e.g. by lack of functional trait compatibility) is paramount to understand the ecological and co-evolutionary processes at the basis of node overlap and segregation patterns.

  8. Mathematical modeling in economics, ecology and the environment

    CERN Document Server

    Hritonenko, Natali

    2013-01-01

    Updated to textbook form by popular demand, this second edition discusses diverse mathematical models used in economics, ecology, and the environmental sciences with emphasis on control and optimization. It is intended for graduate and upper-undergraduate course use, however, applied mathematicians, industry practitioners, and a vast number of interdisciplinary academics will find the presentation highly useful. Core topics of this text are: ·         Economic growth and technological development ·         Population dynamics and human impact on the environment ·         Resource extraction and scarcity ·         Air and water contamination ·         Rational management of the economy and environment ·         Climate change and global dynamics The step-by-step approach taken is problem-based and easy to follow. The authors aptly demonstrate that the same models may be used to describe different economic and environmental processes and that similar invest...

  9. Global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broer, Hendrik; Gaiko, Valery A.

    2010-01-01

    in this paper we complete the global qualitative analysis of a quartic ecological model. In particular, studying global bifurcations of singular points and limit cycles, we prove that the corresponding dynamical system has at most two limit cycles. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. On the specification of structural equation models for ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grace, James B.; Anderson, T. Michael; Olff, Han; Scheiner, Samuel M.

    The use of structural equation modeling (SEM) is often motivated by its utility for investigating complex networks of relationships, but also because of its promise as a means of representing theoretical Concepts using latent variables. In this paper, we discuss characteristics of ecological theory

  11. INTEGRATION OF AN ECONOMIC WITH AN ECOLOGICAL MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    We summarize our work on integration of an economy under imperfect competition with a simple Lotka-Volterra type ecological model. Firms and households operate within a single period planning horizon, thus there is no savings or investment. Wages are set by a dominant employer. P...

  12. HexSim: a modeling environment for ecology and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    HexSim is a powerful and flexible new spatially-explicit, individual based modeling environment intended for use in ecology, conservation, genetics, epidemiology, toxicology, and other disciplines. We describe HexSim, illustrate past applications that contributed to our >10 year ...

  13. Considerations in representing human individuals in social ecological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manfredo, Michael J.; Teel, Tara L.; Gavin, Michael C.; Fulton, David C.

    2017-01-01

    In this chapter we focus on how to integrate the human individual into social-ecological systems analysis, and how to improve research on individual thought and action regarding the environment by locating it within the broader social-ecological context. We discuss three key questions as considerations for future research: (1) is human thought conceptualized as a dynamic and adaptive process, (2) is the individual placed in a multi-level context (including within-person levels, person-group interactions, and institutional and structural factors), and (3) is human thought seen as mutually constructed with the social and natural environment. Increased emphasis on the individual will be essential if we are to understand agency, innovation, and adaptation in social-ecological systems.

  14. Targeted Acoustic Data Processing for Ocean Ecological Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidorovskaia, N.; Li, K.; Tiemann, C.; Ackleh, A. S.; Tang, T.; Ioup, G. E.; Ioup, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Gulf of Mexico is home to many species of deep diving marine mammals. In recent years several ecological studies have collected large volumes of Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) data to investigate the effects of anthropogenic activities on protected and endangered marine mammal species. To utilize these data to their fullest potential for abundance estimates and habitat preference studies, automated detection and classification algorithms are needed to extract species acoustic encounters from a continuous stream of data. The species which phonate in overlapping frequency bands represent a particular challenge. This paper analyzes the performance of a newly developed automated detector for the classification of beaked whale clicks in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Current used beaked whale classification algorithms rely heavily on experienced human operator involvement in manually associating potential events with a particular species of beaked whales. Our detection algorithm is two-stage: the detector is triggered when the species-representative phonation band energy exceeds the baseline detection threshold. Then multiple event attributes (temporal click duration, central frequency, frequency band, frequency sweep rate, Choi-Williams distribution shape indices) are measured. An attribute vector is then used to discriminate among different species of beaked whales present in the Gulf of Mexico and Risso's dolphins which were recognized to mask the detections of beaked whales in the case of widely used energy-band detectors. The detector is applied to the PAM data collected by the Littoral Acoustic Demonstration Center to estimate abundance trends of beaked whales in the vicinity of the 2010 oil spill before and after the disaster. This algorithm will allow automated processing with minimal operator involvement for new and archival PAM data. [The research is supported by a BP/GOMRI 2015-2017 consortium grant.

  15. Model Process Control Language

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MPC (Model Process Control) language enables the capture, communication and preservation of a simulation instance, with sufficient detail that it can be...

  16. Ecologic Niche Modeling of Blastomyces dermatitidis in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Kurt D.; Meece, Jennifer K.; Archer, John R.; Peterson, A. Townsend

    2008-01-01

    Background Blastomycosis is a potentially fatal mycosis that is acquired by inhaling infectious spores of Blastomyces dermatitidis present in the environment. The ecology of this pathogen is poorly understood, in part because it has been extremely difficult to identify the niche(s) it occupies based on culture isolation of the organism from environmental samples. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated the ecology of blastomycosis by performing maximum entropy modeling of exposure sites from 156 cases of human and canine blastomycosis to provide a regional-scale perspective of the geographic and ecologic distribution of B. dermatitidis in Wisconsin. Based on analysis with climatic, topographic, surface reflectance and other environmental variables, we predicted that ecologic conditions favorable for maintaining the fungus in nature occur predominantly within northern counties and counties along the western shoreline of Lake Michigan. Areas of highest predicted occurrence were often in proximity to waterways, especially in northcentral Wisconsin, where incidence of infection is highest. Ecologic conditions suitable for B. dermatitidis are present in urban and rural environments, and may differ at the extremes of distribution of the species in the state. Conclusions/Significance Our results provide a framework for a more informed search for specific environmental factors modulating B. dermatitidis occurrence and transmission and will be useful for improving public health awareness of relative exposure risks. PMID:18446224

  17. Ecological forecasting under climatic data uncertainty: a case study in phenological modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, Benjamin I; Terando, Adam; Steiner, Allison

    2010-01-01

    Forecasting ecological responses to climate change represents a challenge to the ecological community because models are often site-specific and climate data are lacking at appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. We use a case study approach to demonstrate uncertainties in ecological predictions related to the driving climatic input data. We use observational records, derived observational datasets (e.g. interpolated observations from local weather stations and gridded data products) and output from general circulation models (GCM) in conjunction with site based phenology models to estimate the first flowering date (FFD) for three woody flowering species. Using derived observations over the modern time period, we find that cold biases and temperature trends lead to biased FFD simulations for all three species. Observational datasets resolved at the daily time step result in better FFD predictions compared to simulations using monthly resolution. Simulations using output from an ensemble of GCM and regional climate models over modern and future time periods have large intra-ensemble spreads and tend to underestimate observed FFD trends for the modern period. These results indicate that certain forcing datasets may be missing key features needed to generate accurate hindcasts at the local scale (e.g. trends, temporal resolution), and that standard modeling techniques (e.g. downscaling, ensemble mean, etc) may not necessarily improve the prediction of the ecological response. Studies attempting to simulate local ecological processes under modern and future climate forcing therefore need to quantify and propagate the climate data uncertainties in their simulations.

  18. An Analysis of Trainers' Perspectives within an Ecological Framework: Factors that Influence Mine Safety Training Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, Emily J; Hoebbel, Cassandra L; Rost, Kristen A

    2014-09-01

    Satisfactory completion of mine safety training is a prerequisite for being hired and for continued employment in the coal industry. Although training includes content to develop skills in a variety of mineworker competencies, research and recommendations continue to specify that specific limitations in the self-escape portion of training still exist and that mineworkers need to be better prepared to respond to emergencies that could occur in their mine. Ecological models are often used to inform the development of health promotion programs but have not been widely applied to occupational health and safety training programs. Nine mine safety trainers participated in in-depth semi-structured interviews. A theoretical analysis of the interviews was completed via an ecological lens. Each level of the social ecological model was used to examine factors that could be addressed both during and after mine safety training. The analysis suggests that problems surrounding communication and collaboration, leadership development, and responsibility and accountability at different levels within the mining industry contribute to deficiencies in mineworkers' mastery and maintenance of skills. This study offers a new technique to identify limitations in safety training systems and processes. The analysis suggests that training should be developed and disseminated with consideration of various levels-individual, interpersonal, organizational, and community-to promote skills. If factors identified within and between levels are addressed, it may be easier to sustain mineworker competencies that are established during safety training.

  19. Biosphere Process Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. Schmitt

    2000-05-25

    To evaluate the postclosure performance of a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, a Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) will be conducted. Nine Process Model Reports (PMRs), including this document, are being developed to summarize the technical basis for each of the process models supporting the TSPA model. These reports cover the following areas: (1) Integrated Site Model; (2) Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport; (3) Near Field Environment; (4) Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport; (5) Waste Package Degradation; (6) Waste Form Degradation; (7) Saturated Zone Flow and Transport; (8) Biosphere; and (9) Disruptive Events. Analysis/Model Reports (AMRs) contain the more detailed technical information used to support TSPA and the PMRs. The AMRs consists of data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documentation that will be used to defend the applicability of each process model for evaluating the postclosure performance of the potential Yucca Mountain repository system. This documentation will ensure the traceability of information from its source through its ultimate use in the TSPA-Site Recommendation (SR) and in the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis processes. The objective of the Biosphere PMR is to summarize (1) the development of the biosphere model, and (2) the Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCFs) developed for use in TSPA. The Biosphere PMR does not present or summarize estimates of potential radiation doses to human receptors. Dose calculations are performed as part of TSPA and will be presented in the TSPA documentation. The biosphere model is a component of the process to evaluate postclosure repository performance and regulatory compliance for a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The biosphere model describes those exposure pathways in the biosphere by which radionuclides released from a potential repository could reach a human receptor

  20. Biosphere Process Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, J.

    2000-01-01

    To evaluate the postclosure performance of a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, a Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) will be conducted. Nine Process Model Reports (PMRs), including this document, are being developed to summarize the technical basis for each of the process models supporting the TSPA model. These reports cover the following areas: (1) Integrated Site Model; (2) Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport; (3) Near Field Environment; (4) Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport; (5) Waste Package Degradation; (6) Waste Form Degradation; (7) Saturated Zone Flow and Transport; (8) Biosphere; and (9) Disruptive Events. Analysis/Model Reports (AMRs) contain the more detailed technical information used to support TSPA and the PMRs. The AMRs consists of data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documentation that will be used to defend the applicability of each process model for evaluating the postclosure performance of the potential Yucca Mountain repository system. This documentation will ensure the traceability of information from its source through its ultimate use in the TSPA-Site Recommendation (SR) and in the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis processes. The objective of the Biosphere PMR is to summarize (1) the development of the biosphere model, and (2) the Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCFs) developed for use in TSPA. The Biosphere PMR does not present or summarize estimates of potential radiation doses to human receptors. Dose calculations are performed as part of TSPA and will be presented in the TSPA documentation. The biosphere model is a component of the process to evaluate postclosure repository performance and regulatory compliance for a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The biosphere model describes those exposure pathways in the biosphere by which radionuclides released from a potential repository could reach a human receptor

  1. Flow effects on benthic stream invertebrates and ecological processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koprivsek, Maja; Brilly, Mitja

    2010-05-01

    Flow is the main abiotic factor in the streams. Flow affects the organisms in many direct and indirect ways. The organisms are directly affected by various hydrodynamic forces and mass transfer processes like drag forces, drift, shear stress, food and gases supply and washing metabolites away. Indirect effects on the organisms are determining and distribution of the particle size and structure of the substrate and determining the morphology of riverbeds. Flow does not affect only on individual organism, but also on many ecological effects. To expose just the most important: dispersal of the organisms, habitat use, resource acquisition, competition and predator-prey interactions. Stream invertebrates are adapted to the various flow conditions in many kinds of way. Some of them are avoiding the high flow with living in a hyporeic zone, while the others are adapted to flow with physical adaptations (the way of feeding, respiration, osmoregulation and resistance to draught), morphological adaptations (dorsoventrally flattened shape of organism, streamlined shape of organism, heterogeneous suckers, silk, claws, swimming hair, bristles and ballast gravel) or with behaviour. As the flow characteristics in a particular stream vary over a broad range of space and time scales, it is necessary to measure accurately the velocity in places where the organisms are present to determine the actual impact of flow on aquatic organisms. By measuring the mean flow at individual vertical in a single cross-section, we cannot get any information about the velocity situation close to the bottom of the riverbed where the stream invertebrates are living. Just measuring the velocity near the bottom is a major problem, as technologies for measuring the velocity and flow of natural watercourses is not adapted to measure so close to the bottom. New researches in the last two decades has shown that the thickness of laminar border layer of stones in the stream is only a few 100 micrometers, what

  2. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero; Verónica Cirelli; Mariana Munguial; Sahotra Sarkar

    2005-01-01

    Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in u...

  3. Contemporary Ecological Interactions Improve Models of Past Trait Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, Matthew C; Gaiarsa, Marília P; Stouffer, Daniel B

    2018-02-20

    Despite the fact that natural selection underlies both traits and interactions, evolutionary models often neglect that ecological interactions may, and in many cases do, influence the evolution of traits. Here, we explore the interdependence of ecological interactions and functional traits in the pollination associations of hawkmoths and flowering plants. Specifically, we develop an adaptation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of trait evolution that allows us to study the influence of plant corolla depth and observed hawkmoth-plant interactions on the evolution of hawkmoth proboscis length. Across diverse modelling scenarios, we find that the inclusion of contemporary interactions can provide a better description of trait evolution than the null expectation. Moreover, we show that the pollination interactions provide more-likely models of hawkmoth trait evolution when interactions are considered at increasingly finescale groups of hawkmoths. Finally, we demonstrate how the results of best-fit modelling approaches can implicitly support the association between interactions and trait evolution that our method explicitly examines. In showing that contemporary interactions can provide insight into the historical evolution of hawkmoth proboscis length, we demonstrate the clear utility of incorporating additional ecological information to models designed to study past trait evolution.

  4. Seascape ecology in Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows: Linking structure and ecological processes for management

    OpenAIRE

    Abadie, Arnaud; Pace, Matthew; Gobert, Sylvie; Borg, Joseph

    2018-01-01

    Seagrass meadows constitute marine habitats in shallow water temperate and tropical coastal areas worldwide that have a high ecological and economic importance. Amongst the 60 or so seagrass species, the endemic Mediterranean species Posidonia oceanica forms meadows that are arguably the most important shallow water coastal habitat in the region but which are subjected to high anthropogenic pressures. Because of the relatively large size of the plant, the meadows formed by this seagrass have ...

  5. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) as a model system in community, landscape and ecosystem ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowker, Matthew A.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Eldridge, David; Belnap, Jayne; Castillo-Monroy, Andrea; Escolar, Cristina; Soliveres, Santiago

    2014-01-01

    Model systems have had a profound influence on the development of ecological theory and general principles. Compared to alternatives, the most effective models share some combination of the following characteristics: simpler, smaller, faster, general, idiosyncratic or manipulable. We argue that biological soil crusts (biocrusts) have unique combinations of these features that should be more widely exploited in community, landscape and ecosystem ecology. In community ecology, biocrusts are elucidating the importance of biodiversity and spatial pattern for maintaining ecosystem multifunctionality due to their manipulability in experiments. Due to idiosyncrasies in their modes of facilitation and competition, biocrusts have led to new models on the interplay between environmental stress and biotic interactions and on the maintenance of biodiversity by competitive processes. Biocrusts are perhaps one of the best examples of micro-landscapes—real landscapes that are small in size. Although they exhibit varying patch heterogeneity, aggregation, connectivity and fragmentation, like macro-landscapes, they are also compatible with well-replicated experiments (unlike macro-landscapes). In ecosystem ecology, a number of studies are imposing small-scale, low cost manipulations of global change or state factors in biocrust micro-landscapes. The versatility of biocrusts to inform such disparate lines of inquiry suggests that they are an especially useful model system that can enable researchers to see ecological principles more clearly and quickly.

  6. OMWS: A Web Service Interface for Ecological Niche Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato De Giovanni

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Ecological niche modelling (ENM experiments often involve a high number of tasks to be performed. Such tasks may consume a significant amount of computing resources and take a long time to complete, especially when using personal computers. OMWS is a Web service interface that allows more powerful computing back-ends to be remotely exploited by other applications to carry out ENM tasks. Its latest version includes a new operation that can be used to specify complex workflows in a single request, adding the possibility of using workflow management systems on parallel computing back-end. In this paper we describe the OMWS protocol and compare its most recent version with the previous one by running the same ENM experiment using two functionally equivalent clients, each designed for one of the OMWS interface versions. Different back-end configurations were used to investigate how the performance scales for each protocol version when more processing power is made available. Results show that the new version outperforms (in a factor of 2 the previous one when more computing resources are used.

  7. Building Better Ecological Machines: Complexity Theory and Alternative Economic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jess Bier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Computer models of the economy are regularly used to predict economic phenomena and set financial policy. However, the conventional macroeconomic models are currently being reimagined after they failed to foresee the current economic crisis, the outlines of which began to be understood only in 2007-2008. In this article we analyze the most prominent of this reimagining: Agent-Based models (ABMs. ABMs are an influential alternative to standard economic models, and they are one focus of complexity theory, a discipline that is a more open successor to the conventional chaos and fractal modeling of the 1990s. The modelers who create ABMs claim that their models depict markets as ecologies, and that they are more responsive than conventional models that depict markets as machines. We challenge this presentation, arguing instead that recent modeling efforts amount to the creation of models as ecological machines. Our paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the organizing metaphors of macroeconomic models, which we argue is relevant conceptually and politically, e.g., when models are used for regulatory purposes.

  8. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Hengguo; Zhao Min; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili

    2009-01-01

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model

  9. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Hengguo [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China); Zhao Min [School of Life and Environmental Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325027 (China)], E-mail: zmcn@tom.com; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China)

    2009-01-15

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model.

  10. Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological Risk Based on Cloud Model: Taking Chengchao Iron Mine as Example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Jinghua; Chen, Yong; Xiao, Xiao; Yong, Gan; Huang, Ranran; Miao, Zuohua

    2018-01-01

    Aimed at the fuzziness and randomness during the evaluation process, this paper constructed a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model. The evaluation index system was established based on the inherent risk, present level and control situation, which had been proved to be able to convey the main contradictions of ecological risk in mine on the macro level, and be advantageous for comparison among mines. The comment sets and membership functions improved by cloud model could reflect the uniformity of ambiguity and randomness effectively. In addition, the concept of fuzzy entropy was introduced to further characterize the fuzziness of assessments results and the complexities of ecological problems in target mine. A practical example in Chengchao Iron Mine evidenced that, the assessments results can reflect actual situations appropriately and provide a new theoretic guidance for comprehensive ecological risk evaluation of underground iron mine.

  11. Integrated ecological-economic fisheries models - evaluation, review and challenges for implementation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Thunberg, Eric; Holland, Daniel S.

    2018-01-01

    and comparative evaluation of 35 IESFM´s applied to marine fisheries and marine ecosystem resources to identify the characteristics that determine their usefulness, effectiveness and implementation. The focus is on fully integrated models that allow for feedbacks between ecological and human processes though......Marine ecosystems evolve under many interconnected and area-specific pressures. In order to fulfill society's intensifying and diversifying needs whilst ensuring ecologically sustainable development, more effective marine spatial planning and broader-scope management of marine resources...... is necessary. Integrated ecological–socioeconomic fisheries models (IESFM) of marine systems are nee¬ded to evaluate impacts and sustainability of potential management actions and understand, and anti¬ci¬pate ecological, economic, and social dynamics at a range of scales from local to national and regional...

  12. Aerospace Materials Process Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-08-01

    Cooling Transformation diagram ( CCT diagram ) When a IT diagram is used in the heat process modelling, we suppose that a sudden cooling (instantaneous...processes. CE, chooses instead to study thermo-mechanical properties referring to a CCT diagram . This is thinked to be more reliable to give a true...k , mm-_____sml l ml A I 1 III 12.4 This determination is however based on the following approximations: i) A CCT diagram is valid only for the

  13. Cognitive Comparisons of Students' Systems Modeling in Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Kathleen; Thomas, David

    2001-12-01

    This study examined the cognition of five pairs of high school students over time as they built quantitative ecological models using STELLA software. One pair of students emerged as being particularly proficient at learning to model, and was able to use models productively to explore and explain ecological system behaviors. We present detailed contrasts between this and the other pairs of students' cognitive behaviors while modeling, in three areas that were crucial to their modeling productivity: (a) focusing on model output and net interactions versus on model input and individual relationships when building and revising models, (b) exploring the nature and implications of dependencies and feedbacks versus just creating these as properties of complex systems, and (c) using variables versus constants to represent continuous and periodic functions. We then apply theories of the multifaceted nature of cognition to describe object-level, metalevel, and emotional dimensions of cognitive performance that help to explain the observed differences among students' approaches to STELLA modeling. Finally, we suggest pedagogical strategies for supporting all types of students in learning the central scientific practice of model-based quantitative thinking.

  14. Experiential Learning as a Constraint-Led Process: An Ecological Dynamics Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brymer, Eric; Davids, Keith

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present key ideas for an ecological dynamics approach to learning that reveal the importance of learner-environment interactions to frame outdoor experiential learning. We propose that ecological dynamics provides a useful framework for understanding the interacting constraints of the learning process and for designing learning…

  15. Assessing ecological sustainability in urban planning - EcoBalance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahlgren, I., Email: irmeli.wahlgren@vtt.fi

    2012-06-15

    Urban planning solutions and decisions have large-scale significance for ecological sustainability (eco-efficiency) the consumption of energy and other natural resources, the production of greenhouse gas and other emissions and the costs caused by urban form. Climate change brings new and growing challenges for urban planning. The EcoBalance model was developed to assess the sustainability of urban form and has been applied at various planning levels: regional plans, local master plans and detailed plans. The EcoBalance model estimates the total consumption of energy and other natural resources, the production of emissions and wastes and the costs caused directly and indirectly by urban form on a life cycle basis. The results of the case studies provide information about the ecological impacts of various solutions in urban development. (orig.)

  16. Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, e...

  17. Business Model Process Configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taran, Yariv; Nielsen, Christian; Thomsen, Peter

    2015-01-01

    , by developing (inductively) an ontological classification framework, in view of the BM process configurations typology developed. Design/methodology/approach – Given the inconsistencies found in the business model studies (e.g. definitions, configurations, classifications) we adopted the analytical induction...

  18. Modeling Forest Succession among Ecological Land Units in Northern Minnesota

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Host

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Field and modeling studies were used to quantify potential successional pathways among fine-scale ecological classification units within two geomorphic regions of north-central Minnesota. Soil and overstory data were collected on plots stratified across low-relief ground moraines and undulating sand dunes. Each geomorphic feature was sampled across gradients of topography or soil texture. Overstory conditions were sampled using five variable-radius point samples per plot; soil samples were analyzed for carbon and nitrogen content. Climatic, forest composition, and soil data were used to parameterize the sample plots for use with LINKAGES, a forest growth model that simulates changes in composition and soil characteristics over time. Forest composition and soil properties varied within and among geomorphic features. LINKAGES simulations were using "bare ground" and the current overstory as starting conditions. Northern hardwoods or pines dominated the late-successional communities of morainal and dune landforms, respectively. The morainal landforms were dominated by yellow birch and sugar maple; yellow birch reached its maximum abundance in intermediate landscape positions. On the dune sites, pine was most abundant in drier landscape positions, with white spruce increasing in abundance with increasing soil moisture and N content. The differences in measured soil properties and predicted late-successional composition indicate that ecological land units incorporate some of the key variables that govern forest composition and structure. They further show the value of ecological classification and modeling for developing forest management strategies that incorporate the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest ecosystems.

  19. Thermal Infrared Remote Sensing for Analysis of Landscape Ecological Processes: Methods and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.

    1998-01-01

    Thermal Infrared (TIR) remote sensing data can provide important measurements of surface energy fluxes and temperatures, which are integral to understanding landscape processes and responses. One example of this is the successful application of TIR remote sensing data to estimate evapotranspiration and soil moisture, where results from a number of studies suggest that satellite-based measurements from TIR remote sensing data can lead to more accurate regional-scale estimates of daily evapotranspiration. With further refinement in analytical techniques and models, the use of TIR data from airborne and satellite sensors could be very useful for parameterizing surface moisture conditions and developing better simulations of landscape energy exchange over a variety of conditions and space and time scales. Thus, TIR remote sensing data can significantly contribute to the observation, measurement, and analysis of energy balance characteristics (i.e., the fluxes and redistribution of thermal energy within and across the land surface) as an implicit and important aspect of landscape dynamics and landscape functioning. The application of TIR remote sensing data in landscape ecological studies has been limited, however, for several fundamental reasons that relate primarily to the perceived difficulty in use and availability of these data by the landscape ecology community, and from the fragmentation of references on TIR remote sensing throughout the scientific literature. It is our purpose here to provide evidence from work that has employed TIR remote sensing for analysis of landscape characteristics to illustrate how these data can provide important data for the improved measurement of landscape energy response and energy flux relationships. We examine the direct or indirect use of TIR remote sensing data to analyze landscape biophysical characteristics, thereby offering some insight on how these data can be used more robustly to further the understanding and modeling of

  20. An ecological interface for supporting situation awareness during malfunction and process and automation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohtsu, Masataka; Furukawa, Hiroshi; Inagaki, Toshiyuki; Monta, Kazuo

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes the outline of an experiment to investigate the effect of an ecological interface for supporting situation awareness during malfunction of process. We developed an ecological interface and an conventional interface for the simulator SCARLETT of a virtual plant that have two process control modes (automatic process control mode and manual process control mode). The purpose of this experiment is to investigate how interface and process control mode have any effects on situation awareness of human operator during malfunction of process, whether there are any interaction between interface and process control mode. We have been conducted this experiment now. (author)

  1. Process models as tools in forestry research and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt Johnsen; Lisa Samuelson; Robert Teskey; Steve McNulty; Tom Fox

    2001-01-01

    Forest process models are mathematical representations of biological systems that incorporate our understanding of physiological and ecological mechanisms into predictive algorithms. These models were originally designed and used for research purposes, but are being developed for use in practical forest management. Process models designed for research...

  2. On the specification of structural equation models for ecological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, J.B.; Michael, Anderson T.; Han, O.; Scheiner, S.M.

    2010-01-01

    The use of structural equation modeling (SEM) is often motivated by its utility for investigating complex networks of relationships, but also because of its promise as a means of representing theoretical concepts using latent variables. In this paper, we discuss characteristics of ecological theory and some of the challenges for proper specification of theoretical ideas in structural equation models (SE models). In our presentation, we describe some of the requirements for classical latent variable models in which observed variables (indicators) are interpreted as the effects of underlying causes. We also describe alternative model specifications in which indicators are interpreted as having causal influences on the theoretical concepts. We suggest that this latter nonclassical specification (which involves another variable type-the composite) will often be appropriate for ecological studies because of the multifaceted nature of our theoretical concepts. In this paper, we employ the use of meta-models to aid the translation of theory into SE models and also to facilitate our ability to relate results back to our theories. We demonstrate our approach by showing how a synthetic theory of grassland biodiversity can be evaluated using SEM and data from a coastal grassland. In this example, the theory focuses on the responses of species richness to abiotic stress and disturbance, both directly and through intervening effects on community biomass. Models examined include both those based on classical forms (where each concept is represented using a single latent variable) and also ones in which the concepts are recognized to be multifaceted and modeled as such. To address the challenge of matching SE models with the conceptual level of our theory, two approaches are illustrated, compositing and aggregation. Both approaches are shown to have merits, with the former being preferable for cases where the multiple facets of a concept have widely differing effects in the

  3. Chain binomial models and binomial autoregressive processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Christian H; Pollett, Philip K

    2012-09-01

    We establish a connection between a class of chain-binomial models of use in ecology and epidemiology and binomial autoregressive (AR) processes. New results are obtained for the latter, including expressions for the lag-conditional distribution and related quantities. We focus on two types of chain-binomial model, extinction-colonization and colonization-extinction models, and present two approaches to parameter estimation. The asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators are studied, as well as their finite-sample performance, and we give an application to real data. A connection is made with standard AR models, which also has implications for parameter estimation. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  4. Integrated Ecological-Economic Modeling of Regions with the use of GIS Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.N. Bulatova

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper shows the process of modeling the integrated map “Scheme of the ecological and economic regionalization of the territory of the Russian Federation on the basis of the mineral and raw materials base of natural adsorbents” using GIS technologies. The map is based on three main groups of indicators: natural, economic and environmental. The ecological content of the map is characterized by indicators that are potential or actual sources of pollutant release into the environment (nuclear power plants, nuclear reactors, radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, nuclear test sites, industrial enterprises, railways, operating and under construction oil pipelines, hydrocarbon fields, etc.. The economic component of the map is the reserves estimated by the indicators of study and development, the relationship to the subsoil fund and forecast resources. The natural group of indicators is represented by the mineral and raw material base of natural adsorbents (fields and objects of forecast resources that can be used to prevent harmful emissions and for the ecological and economic rehabilitation of contaminated areas. Based on the analysis of cartographic data, the ecological and economic areas of the territorial distribution of man-caused environmental impacts and the presence of adsorption raw materials are identified. As an example, a description is given of the ecological and economic model of the regionalization of the Privolzhsky Federal District using the GIS “Mineral resource base of natural adsorbents of Russia” developed at the Federal State Unitary Enterprise TsNIIgeolnerud.

  5. Estimation methods for nonlinear state-space models in ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Berg, Casper Willestofte; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro

    2011-01-01

    The use of nonlinear state-space models for analyzing ecological systems is increasing. A wide range of estimation methods for such models are available to ecologists, however it is not always clear, which is the appropriate method to choose. To this end, three approaches to estimation in the theta...... logistic model for population dynamics were benchmarked by Wang (2007). Similarly, we examine and compare the estimation performance of three alternative methods using simulated data. The first approach is to partition the state-space into a finite number of states and formulate the problem as a hidden...... Markov model (HMM). The second method uses the mixed effects modeling and fast numerical integration framework of the AD Model Builder (ADMB) open-source software. The third alternative is to use the popular Bayesian framework of BUGS. The study showed that state and parameter estimation performance...

  6. Business process model repositories : efficient process retrieval

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Z.

    2012-01-01

    As organizations increasingly work in process-oriented manner, the number of business process models that they develop and have to maintain increases. As a consequence, it has become common for organizations to have collections of hundreds or even thousands of business process models. When a

  7. Introducing MERGANSER: A Flexible Framework for Ecological Niche Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klawonn, M.; Dow, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) is a collection of techniques to find a "fundamental niche", the range of environmental conditions suitable for a species' survival in the absence of inter-species interactions, given a set of environmental parameters. Traditional approaches to ENM face a number of obstacles including limited data accessibility, data management problems, computational costs, interface usability, and model validation. The MERGANSER system, which stands for Modeling Ecological Residency Given A Normalized Set of Environmental Records, addresses these issues through powerful data persistence and flexible data access, coupled with a clear presentation of results and fine-tuned control over model parameters. MERGANSER leverages data measuring 72 weather related phenomena, land cover, soil type, population, species occurrence, general species information, and elevation, totaling over 1.5 TB of data. To the best of the authors' knowledge, MERGANSER uses higher-resolution spatial data sets than previously published models. Since MERGANSER stores data in an instance of Apache SOLR, layers generated in support of niche models are accessible to users via simplified Apache Lucene queries. This is made even simpler via an HTTP front end that generates Lucene queries automatically. Specifically, a user need only enter the name of a place and a species to run a model. Using this approach to synthesizing model layers, the MERGANSER system has successfully reproduced previously published niche model results with a simplified user experience. Input layers for the model are generated dynamically using OpenStreetMap and SOLR's spatial search functionality. Models are then run using either user-specified or automatically determined parameters after normalizing them into a common grid. Finally, results are visualized in the web interface, which allows for quick validation. Model results and all surrounding metadata are also accessible to the user for further study.

  8. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-09-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

  9. Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Seth J.; Luce, Charles H.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Neville, Helen M.

    2010-09-01

    Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe and forecast hydrologic changes but has been calibrated and applied mainly to large rivers. An important question is how well VIC runoff simulations serve to answer questions about hydrologic changes in smaller streams, which are important habitat for many fish species. To answer this question, we aggregated gridded VIC outputs within the drainage basins of 55 streamflow gages in the Pacific Northwest United States and compared modeled hydrographs and summary metrics to observations. For most streams, several ecologically relevant aspects of the hydrologic regime were accurately modeled, including center of flow timing, mean annual and summer flows and frequency of winter floods. Frequencies of high and low flows in the summer were not well predicted, however. Predictions were worse for sites with strong groundwater influence, and some sites showed errors that may result from limitations in the forcing climate data. Higher resolution (1/16th degree) modeling provided small improvements over lower resolution (1/8th degree). Despite some limitations, the VIC model appears capable of representing several ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics in streams, making it a useful tool for understanding the effects of hydrology in delimiting species distributions and predicting the potential effects of climate shifts on aquatic organisms.

  10. Quantifying the dilution effect for models in ecological epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, M G; Heesterbeek, J A P

    2018-03-01

    The dilution effect , where an increase in biodiversity results in a reduction in the prevalence of an infectious disease, has been the subject of speculation and controversy. Conversely, an amplification effect occurs when increased biodiversity is related to an increase in prevalence. We explore the conditions under which these effects arise, using multi species compartmental models that integrate ecological and epidemiological interactions. We introduce three potential metrics for quantifying dilution and amplification, one based on infection prevalence in a focal host species, one based on the size of the infected subpopulation of that species and one based on the basic reproduction number. We introduce our approach in the simplest epidemiological setting with two species, and show that the existence and strength of a dilution effect is influenced strongly by the choices made to describe the system and the metric used to gauge the effect. We show that our method can be generalized to any number of species and to more complicated ecological and epidemiological dynamics. Our method allows a rigorous analysis of ecological systems where dilution effects have been postulated, and contributes to future progress in understanding the phenomenon of dilution in the context of infectious disease dynamics and infection risk. © 2018 The Author(s).

  11. Process model repositories and PNML

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hee, van K.M.; Post, R.D.J.; Somers, L.J.A.M.; Werf, van der J.M.E.M.; Kindler, E.

    2004-01-01

    Bringing system and process models together in repositories facilitates the interchange of model information between modelling tools, and allows the combination and interlinking of complementary models. Petriweb is a web application for managing such repositories. It supports hierarchical process

  12. Spatial pattern and ecological process in the coffee agroforestry system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perfecto, Ivette; Vandermeer, John

    2008-04-01

    The coffee agroforestry system provides an ideal platform for the study of spatial ecology. The uniform pattern of the coffee plants and shade trees allows for the study of pattern generation through intrinsic biological forces rather than extrinsic habitat patchiness. Detailed studies, focusing on a key mutualism between an ant (Azteca instabilis) and a scale insect (Coccus viridis), conducted in a 45-ha plot in a coffee agroforestry system have provided insights into (1) the quantitative evaluation of spatial pattern of the scale insect Coccus viridis on coffee bushes, (2) the mechanisms for the generation of patterns through the combination of local satellite ant nest formation and regional control from natural enemies, and (3) the consequences of the spatial pattern for the stability of predator-prey (host-parasitoid) systems, for a key coccinelid beetle preying on the scale insects and a phorid fly parasitoid parasitizing the ant.

  13. Statistical physics of community ecology: a cavity solution to MacArthur’s consumer resource model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Advani, Madhu; Bunin, Guy; Mehta, Pankaj

    2018-03-01

    A central question in ecology is to understand the ecological processes that shape community structure. Niche-based theories have emphasized the important role played by competition for maintaining species diversity. Many of these insights have been derived using MacArthur’s consumer resource model (MCRM) or its generalizations. Most theoretical work on the MCRM has focused on small ecosystems with a few species and resources. However theoretical insights derived from small ecosystems many not scale up to large ecosystems with many resources and species because large systems with many interacting components often display new emergent behaviors that cannot be understood or deduced from analyzing smaller systems. To address these shortcomings, we develop a statistical physics inspired cavity method to analyze MCRM when both the number of species and the number of resources is large. Unlike previous work in this limit, our theory addresses resource dynamics and resource depletion and demonstrates that species generically and consistently perturb their environments and significantly modify available ecological niches. We show how our cavity approach naturally generalizes niche theory to large ecosystems by accounting for the effect of collective phenomena on species invasion and ecological stability. Our theory suggests that such phenomena are a generic feature of large, natural ecosystems and must be taken into account when analyzing and interpreting community structure. It also highlights the important role that statistical-physics inspired approaches can play in furthering our understanding of ecology.

  14. Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigolotti, Simone; Cencini, Massimo; Molina, Daniel; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2017-11-01

    Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.

  15. Triatominae as a model of morphological plasticity under ecological pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dujardin JP

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of biochemical and genetic characters to explore species or population relationships has been applied to taxonomic questions since the 60s. In responding to the central question of the evolutionary history of Triatominae, i.e. their monophyletic or polyphyletic origin, two important questions arise (i to what extent is the morphologically-based classification valid for assessing phylogenetic relationships? and (ii what are the main mechanisms underlying speciation in Triatominae? Phenetic and genetic studies so far developed suggest that speciation in Triatominae may be a rapid process mainly driven by ecological factors.

  16. Dynamic ecological-economic modeling approach for management of shellfish aquaculture

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Nobre, AM

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this report is to conceptualize ecological and economic interactions in mariculture; to implement a dynamic ecological-economic model in order to: simulate the socio-economics of aquaculture production, simulate its effects...

  17. Benefits of using a Social-Ecological Systems Approach to Conceptualize and Model Wetlands Restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Using a social-ecological systems (SES) perspective to examine wetland restoration helps decision-makers recognize interdependencies and relations between ecological and social components of coupled systems. Conceptual models are an invaluable tool to capture, visualize, and orga...

  18. Modeling abundance using N-mixture models: the importance of considering ecological mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Liana N; Elkin, Ché; Martin, Tara G; Possinghami, Hugh P

    2009-04-01

    Predicting abundance across a species' distribution is useful for studies of ecology and biodiversity management. Modeling of survey data in relation to environmental variables can be a powerful method for extrapolating abundances across a species' distribution and, consequently, calculating total abundances and ultimately trends. Research in this area has demonstrated that models of abundance are often unstable and produce spurious estimates, and until recently our ability to remove detection error limited the development of accurate models. The N-mixture model accounts for detection and abundance simultaneously and has been a significant advance in abundance modeling. Case studies that have tested these new models have demonstrated success for some species, but doubt remains over the appropriateness of standard N-mixture models for many species. Here we develop the N-mixture model to accommodate zero-inflated data, a common occurrence in ecology, by employing zero-inflated count models. To our knowledge, this is the first application of this method to modeling count data. We use four variants of the N-mixture model (Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson, negative binomial, and zero-inflated negative binomial) to model abundance, occupancy (zero-inflated models only) and detection probability of six birds in South Australia. We assess models by their statistical fit and the ecological realism of the parameter estimates. Specifically, we assess the statistical fit with AIC and assess the ecological realism by comparing the parameter estimates with expected values derived from literature, ecological theory, and expert opinion. We demonstrate that, despite being frequently ranked the "best model" according to AIC, the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture often produce ecologically unrealistic parameter estimates. The zero-inflated Poisson variant is preferable to the negative binomial variants of the N-mixture, as it models an ecological mechanism rather than a

  19. Ecological sustainability and personal behavior: relations demonstrated by the decision-making process of selecting a certain transportation mean

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Priewasser, Reinhold [Linz Univ., Inst. for Environmental Management in Enterprises and Regions, Linz (Austria)

    1999-07-01

    Facing the aim of ecological sustainability only little emphasis has been placed on the fact that the extent of environmental stresses is not only a consequence of certain factual or structural conditions but also essentially determined by varying human behaviour patterns. Technologies and structures are not ecologically effective by themselves, their environmental relevance strongly depends on the persons' way of acting within the prevailing system. Recognising the importance of that perspective psychological and social theories about the generation of personal behaviour as well as the theoretical models of learning can offer useful indications concerning the interpersonal and extrapersonal preconditions of environmentally oriented acting. With reference to the decision-making process of selecting a certain transportation mean, the influences of rational and emotional factors and obstacles to an ecologically sustainable personal act should be exemplary demonstrated. At the same time very effective points of departure for behavioural change can be identified. (Author)

  20. Modeling styles in business process modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinggera, J.; Soffer, P.; Zugal, S.; Weber, B.; Weidlich, M.; Fahland, D.; Reijers, H.A.; Mendling, J.; Bider, I.; Halpin, T.; Krogstie, J.; Nurcan, S.; Proper, E.; Schmidt, R.; Soffer, P.; Wrycza, S.

    2012-01-01

    Research on quality issues of business process models has recently begun to explore the process of creating process models. As a consequence, the question arises whether different ways of creating process models exist. In this vein, we observed 115 students engaged in the act of modeling, recording

  1. Homogenization of Large-Scale Movement Models in Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garlick, M.J.; Powell, J.A.; Hooten, M.B.; McFarlane, L.R.

    2011-01-01

    A difficulty in using diffusion models to predict large scale animal population dispersal is that individuals move differently based on local information (as opposed to gradients) in differing habitat types. This can be accommodated by using ecological diffusion. However, real environments are often spatially complex, limiting application of a direct approach. Homogenization for partial differential equations has long been applied to Fickian diffusion (in which average individual movement is organized along gradients of habitat and population density). We derive a homogenization procedure for ecological diffusion and apply it to a simple model for chronic wasting disease in mule deer. Homogenization allows us to determine the impact of small scale (10-100 m) habitat variability on large scale (10-100 km) movement. The procedure generates asymptotic equations for solutions on the large scale with parameters defined by small-scale variation. The simplicity of this homogenization procedure is striking when compared to the multi-dimensional homogenization procedure for Fickian diffusion,and the method will be equally straightforward for more complex models. ?? 2010 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  2. Spatial modelling and ecology of Echinococcus multilocularis transmission in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danson, F Mark; Giraudoux, Patrick; Craig, Philip S

    2006-01-01

    Recent research in central China has suggested that the most likely transmission mechanism for Echinococcus multilocularis to humans is via domestic dogs which are allowed to roam freely and hunt (infected) small mammals within areas close to villages or in areas of tented pasture. This assertion has led to the hypothesis that there is a landscape control on transmission risk since the proximity of suitable habitat for susceptible small mammals appears to be the key. We have tested this hypothesis in a number of endemic areas in China, notably south Gansu Province and the Tibetan region of western Sichuan Province. The fundamental landscape control is its effect at a regional scale on small mammal species assemblages (susceptible species are not ubiquitous) and, at a local scale, the spatial distributions of small mammal populations. To date the research has examined relationships between landscape composition and patterns of human infection, landscape and small mammal distributions and recently the relationships between landscape and dog infection rates. The key tool to characterize landscape is satellite remote sensing and these data are used as inputs to drive spatial models of transmission risk. This paper reviews the progress that has been made so far in spatial modeling of the ecology of E. multilocularis with particular reference to China, outlines current research issues, and describes a framework for building a spatial-temporal model of transmission ecology.

  3. Efficiency of manufacturing processes energy and ecological perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wen

    2015-01-01

     This monograph presents a reliable methodology for characterising the energy and eco-efficiency of unit manufacturing processes. The Specific Energy Consumption, SEC, will be identified as the key indicator for the energy efficiency of unit processes.  An empirical approach will be validated on different machine tools and manufacturing processes to depict the relationship between process parameters and energy consumptions. Statistical results and additional validation runs will corroborate the high level of accuracy in predicting the energy consumption. In relation to the eco-efficiency, the value and the associated environmental impacts of  manufacturing processes will also be discussed. The interrelationship between process parameters, process value and the associated environmental impact will be integrated in the evaluation of eco-efficiency. The book concludes with a further investigation of the results in order to develop strategies for further efficiency improvement. The target audience primarily co...

  4. Ecological prediction with nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional data models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wen-Hsi; Wikle, Christopher K.; Holan, Scott H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

    2013-01-01

    Time-frequency analysis has become a fundamental component of many scientific inquiries. Due to improvements in technology, the amount of high-frequency signals that are collected for ecological and other scientific processes is increasing at a dramatic rate. In order to facilitate the use of these data in ecological prediction, we introduce a class of nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional models that can identify important features of each signal as well as the interaction of signals corresponding to the response variable of interest. Our methodology is of independent interest and utilizes stochastic search variable selection to improve model selection and performs model averaging to enhance prediction. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach through simulation and by application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River.

  5. Ecological studies related to construction of the Defense Waste Processing Facility on the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, D.E.; Pechmann, J.H.K.; Knox, J.N.; Estes, R.A.; McGregor, J.H.; Bailey, K.

    1988-12-01

    The Savannah River Ecology Laboratory has completed 10 years of ecological studies related to the construction of the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) on the Savannah River Site. This progress report examines water quality studies on streams peripheral to the DWPF construction site and examines the effectiveness of ''refuge ponds'' in ameliorating the effects of construction on local amphibians. Individual papers on these topics are indexed separately. 93 refs., 15 figs., 15 tabs

  6. Ecological studies related to construction of the Defense Waste Processing Facility on the Savannah River Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, D.E.; Pechmann, J.H.K.; Knox, J.N.; Estes, R.A.; McGregor, J.H.; Bailey, K. (ed.)

    1988-12-01

    The Savannah River Ecology Laboratory has completed 10 years of ecological studies related to the construction of the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) on the Savannah River Site. This progress report examines water quality studies on streams peripheral to the DWPF construction site and examines the effectiveness of refuge ponds'' in ameliorating the effects of construction on local amphibians. Individual papers on these topics are indexed separately. 93 refs., 15 figs., 15 tabs. (MHB)

  7. Integrated models to support multiobjective ecological restoration decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Hannah; Rumpff, Libby; Yen, Jian D L; Robinson, Doug; Wintle, Brendan A

    2017-12-01

    Many objectives motivate ecological restoration, including improving vegetation condition, increasing the range and abundance of threatened species, and improving species richness and diversity. Although models have been used to examine the outcomes of ecological restoration, few researchers have attempted to develop models to account for multiple, potentially competing objectives. We developed a combined state-and-transition, species-distribution model to predict the effects of restoration actions on vegetation condition and extent, bird diversity, and the distribution of several bird species in southeastern Australian woodlands. The actions reflected several management objectives. We then validated the models against an independent data set and investigated how the best management decision might change when objectives were valued differently. We also used model results to identify effective restoration options for vegetation and bird species under a constrained budget. In the examples we evaluated, no one action (improving vegetation condition and extent, increasing bird diversity, or increasing the probability of occurrence for threatened species) provided the best outcome across all objectives. In agricultural lands, the optimal management actions for promoting the occurrence of the Brown Treecreeper (Climacteris picumnus), an iconic threatened species, resulted in little improvement in the extent of the vegetation and a high probability of decreased vegetation condition. This result highlights that the best management action in any situation depends on how much the different objectives are valued. In our example scenario, no management or weed control were most likely to be the best management options to satisfy multiple restoration objectives. Our approach to exploring trade-offs in management outcomes through integrated modeling and structured decision-support approaches has wide application for situations in which trade-offs exist between competing

  8. Ecologizing Our Cities: A Particular, Process-Function View of Southern California, from within Complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashwani Vasishth

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Cities, as the quintessential socio-technological artifacts of human civilization, are seen to set us apart from nature. But an ecosystem view from nested scale-hierarchical process-function ecology shows us that cities are best seen as the emergent and nodal end points of interactive flows of matter, energy and information. From within such a view, a clear need emerges to ecologize our cities by better integrating them back with nature. Arguing from such an ecosystem approach to depicting reality, this paper proposes that tracing the processes and functions which constitute the morphology of the city leads us to articulate an urban ecology that incorporates heat island mitigations, urban forestry, and ecological landscape management (taken both as the introduction of native vegetation and the insertion of increased proportions of pervious paving, all considered within the framework of an integrative ecosystem approach to land use planning. More importantly, such an approach to urban ecology is useful because, as a mode of intervention, it rests on—indeed, requires—an acknowledgement in ecological planning of the often amorphous and usually only indirectly sensible atmospheric, biogeochemical and hydrological processes and functions.

  9. Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

    1992-01-01

    Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce

  10. Simulation of socio-ecological impacts: Modeling a fishing village

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Philip C.

    1982-03-01

    The interrelationship of society and environment is addressed here through the study of a remote fishing village of 750 people. An interdisciplinary study evaluated demographic, economic, and social aspects of the community, and simulation modeling was used to integrate these societal characteristics with environmental factors. The population of the village had grown gradually until the 1960's, when a decline began. Out-migration correlated with declining fish harvests and with increased communications with urban centers. Fishing had provided the greatest economic opportunity, followed by logging. A survey was conducted to investigate the costs and revenues of village fishermen. Diversification characterized the local fleet, and analysis showed that rates of return on investment in the current year were equal between vessel types. The variable levels and rate parameters of the demographic, economic, and social components of the model were specified through static and time series data. Sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of uncertainty, and validation tests against known historical changes were also conducted. Forecast scenarios identified the development options under several levels of fish abundance and investment. The weight given to ecological versus economic resource management registered disproportionate effects due to the interaction between investment and migration rates and resource stochasticity. This finding argues against a “golden mean” rule for evaluating policy trade-offs and argues for the importance of using a dynamic, socio-ecological perspective in designing development policies for rural communities.

  11. From single-substance evaluation to ecological process concept: the dilemma of processing gold with cyanide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korte, F; Coulston, F

    1995-10-01

    In the past decades, limit concentration values for environmentally dangerous synthetic and natural chemical substances have been established in industrialized countries. Depending on the range of application, state of aggregation, propagation velocity, specific action on living organisms, long- or short-time effect, etc., different terms are used to specify these limit concentrations (acceptable daily intakes, TLV, LD50, emission values, water quality standards, etc.). Several parameters (e.g., range of application, ethic and social valuation, environmental factors, scientific knowledge) have led to nationally and internationally varying values depending on the region and time. The accuracy of this system of evaluation cannot necessarily be improved by listing further analytical data, but rather by furnishing sufficiently secured scientific data for a serious discussion, with the public concepts influenced more and more by the mass media. The best-established scientific knowledge has been acquired by the chemical industry. National and international groups demand that ecological-chemical problems in other fields of industry be dealt with as well; this research should, without doubt, be intensified. The example of the mining industry, which must employ chemical methods to isolate small concentrations (ppm), demonstrates the environmental conflict caused by the increasing world population, requiring the adaptation of the process by industry to the modern environmental concept. This is illustrated by the evolution of the gold recovery process.

  12. [An emergy-ecological footprint model based evaluation of ecological security at the old industrial area in Northeast China: A case study of Liaoning Province.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qing; Lu, Cheng Peng; Zhou, Feng; Geng, Yong; Jing, Hong Shuang; Ren, Wan Xia; Xue, Bing

    2016-05-01

    Based on the integrated model of emergy-ecological footprint approaches, the ecological security of Liaoning Province, a typical case for the old industrial area, was quantitatively evaluated from 2003 to 2012, followed by a scenario analysis on the development trend of the ecological secu-rity by employing the gray kinetic model. The results showed that, from 2003 to 2012, the value of emergy ecological-capacity per capita in Liaoning Province decreased from 3.13 hm 2 to 3.07 hm 2 , while the emergy-ecological footprint increased from 13.88 hm 2 to 21.96 hm 2 , which indicated that the ecological deficit existed in Liaoning Province and the situation was getting worse. The ecological pressure index increased from 4.43 to 7.16 during the studied period, and the alert level of ecological security changed from light to middle level. According to the development trend, the emergy ecological capacity per capita during 2013-2022 would correspondingly decrease from 3.04 hm 2 to 2.98 hm 2 , while the emergy ecological footprint would increase from 22.72 hm 2 to 35.87 hm 2 , the ecological pressure index would increase from 7.46 to 12.04, and the ecological deficit would keep increasing and the ecological security level would slide into slightly unsafe condition. The alert level of ecological security would turn to be middle or serious, suggesting the problems in ecological safety needed to be solved urgently.

  13. Ecology and equity in global fisheries: Modelling policy options using theoretical distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rammelt, C.F.; van Schie, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Global fisheries present a typical case of political ecology or environmental injustice, i.e. a problem of distribution of resources within ecological limits. We built a stock-flow model to visualize this challenge and its dynamics, with both an ecological and a social dimension. We incorporated

  14. Ecology of Arcobacter species in chicken rearing and processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gude, A; Hillman, T J; Helps, C R; Allen, V M; Corry, J E L

    2005-01-01

    To investigate whether Arcobacter spp. colonize the poultry-rearing environment or whether they are contaminants acquired during transportation and/or from the processing plant. Samples were collected on poultry farms and in the processing plant during slaughter and dressing. Two cultural methods of detection were used. Isolates were identified to species level using a multiplex-polymerase chain reaction (m-PCR) method, either on the initial suspensions, or after enrichment, or on pure cultures of isolates. Of the 62 samples examined from poultry farms, arcobacters were found only outside the rearing sheds (in effluent sludge and stagnant water). Thirty-four samples were examined from the processing plant and 26 were positive for arcobacters. All the isolates were Arcobacter butzleri. Arcobacters were not found in any sample by direct plating nor by m-PCR on the initial suspensions, thus it was concluded that numbers were very low. Arcobacter spp. were not found in samples from the live birds and their immediate environment, but A. butzleri was found in effluent sludge and stagnant water outside the rearing sheds. However, A. butzleri is common in poultry abattoirs, and it appears that poultry carcasses are contaminated during processing. Arcobacters are not found inside poultry-rearing sheds, but are contaminants in the processing environment.

  15. The Sustainable Process Index. A new dimension in ecological evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krotscheck, Christian; Narodoslawsky, Michael

    1996-01-01

    The Sustainable Process Index (SPI) is a measure developed to evaluate the viability of processes under sustainable economic conditions. Its advantages are its universal applicability, its scientific basis, the possibility of adoption in process analyses and syntheses, the high sensitivity for sustainable qualities, and the capability of aggregation to one measure. It has proved to be useful in industrial strategic planning. The concept of the SPI is based on the assumption that in a truly sustainable society the basis of economy is the sustainable flow of solar exergy. The conversion of the solar exergy to services needs area. Thus, area becomes the limiting factor of a sustainable economy. The SPI evaluates the areas needed to provide the raw materials and energy demands and to accommodate by-product flows from a process in a sustainable way. It relates these areas to the area available to a citizen in a given geographical (from regional to global) context. The data necessary to calculate the SPI are usually known at an early stage in process development. The result of the computation is the ratio between the area needed to supply a citizen with a given service and the area needed to supply a citizen with all possible services. Thus, it is a measure of the expense of this service in an economy oriented towards sustainability

  16. The spatial optimism model research for the regional land use based on the ecological constraint

    Science.gov (United States)

    XU, K.; Lu, J.; Chi, Y.

    2013-12-01

    The study focuses on the Yunnan-Guizhou (i.e. Yunnan province and Guizhou province) Plateau in China. Since the Yunnan-Guizhou region consists of closed basins, the land resources suiting for development are in a shortage, and the ecological problems in the area are quite complicated. In such circumstance, in order to get the applicable basins area and distribution, certain spatial optimism model is needed. In this research, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and land use data are used to get the boundary rules of the basins distribution. Furthermore, natural risks, ecological risks and human-made ecological risks are integrated to be analyzed. Finally, the spatial overlay analysis method is used to model the developable basins area and distribution for industries and urbanization. The study process can be divided into six steps. First, basins and their distribution need to be recognized. In this way, the DEM data is used to extract the geomorphology characteristics. The plaque regions with gradient under eight degrees are selected. Among these regions, the total area of the plaque with the area above 8 km2 is 54,000 km2, 10% of the total area. These regions are selected to the potential application of industries and urbanization. In the later five steps, analyses are aimed at these regions. Secondly, the natural risks are analyzed. The conditions of the earthquake, debris flow and rainstorm and flood are combined to classify the natural risks. Thirdly, the ecological risks are analyzed containing the ecological sensibility and ecosystem service function importance. According to the regional ecologic features, the sensibility containing the soil erosion, acid rain, stony desertification and survive condition factors is derived and classified according to the medium value to get the ecological sensibility partition. The ecosystem service function importance is classified and divided considering the biology variation protection and water conservation factors. The fourth

  17. Beyond positivist ecology: toward an integrated ecological ethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Bryan G

    2008-12-01

    A post-positivist understanding of ecological science and the call for an "ecological ethic" indicate the need for a radically new approach to evaluating environmental change. The positivist view of science cannot capture the essence of environmental sciences because the recent work of "reflexive" ecological modelers shows that this requires a reconceptualization of the way in which values and ecological models interact in scientific process. Reflexive modelers are ecological modelers who believe it is appropriate for ecologists to examine the motives for their choices in developing models; this self-reflexive approach opens the door to a new way of integrating values into public discourse and to a more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change. This reflexive building of ecological models is introduced through the transformative simile of Aldo Leopold, which shows that learning to "think like a mountain" involves a shift in both ecological modeling and in values and responsibility. An adequate, interdisciplinary approach to ecological valuation, requires a re-framing of the evaluation questions in entirely new ways, i.e., a review of the current status of interdisciplinary value theory with respect to ecological values reveals that neither of the widely accepted theories of environmental value-neither economic utilitarianism nor intrinsic value theory (environmental ethics)-provides a foundation for an ecologically sensitive evaluation process. Thus, a new, ecologically sensitive, and more comprehensive approach to evaluating ecological change would include an examination of the metaphors that motivate the models used to describe environmental change.

  18. Could information theory provide an ecological theory of sensory processing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atick, Joseph J

    2011-01-01

    The sensory pathways of animals are well adapted to processing a special class of signals, namely stimuli from the animal's environment. An important fact about natural stimuli is that they are typically very redundant and hence the sampled representation of these signals formed by the array of sensory cells is inefficient. One could argue for some animals and pathways, as we do in this review, that efficiency of information representation in the nervous system has several evolutionary advantages. Consequently, one might expect that much of the processing in the early levels of these sensory pathways could be dedicated towards recoding incoming signals into a more efficient form. In this review, we explore the principle of efficiency of information representation as a design principle for sensory processing. We give a preliminary discussion on how this principle could be applied in general to predict neural processing and then discuss concretely some neural systems where it recently has been shown to be successful. In particular, we examine the fly's LMC coding strategy and the mammalian retinal coding in the spatial, temporal and chromatic domains.

  19. Thermo-ecological cost (TEC evaluation of metallurgical processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Stanek

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Metallurgy represents a complex production system of fuel and mineral non-renewable resources transformation. The effectiveness of resource management in metallurgical chains depends on the applied ore grade and on the irreversibility of components of the system. TEC can be applied to measure the influence of metallurgy on the depletion of natural resources. The paper discusses the possibility of application of TEC in metallurgy and presents illustrative example concerning blast-furnace process.

  20. Pattern-oriented modelling: a 'multi-scope' for predictive systems ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Volker; Railsback, Steven F

    2012-01-19

    Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels-especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour-is essential for making the science predictive. 'Pattern-oriented modelling' (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions.

  1. Assessment of mutual influence of economic and ecological processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Vasil’evich Druzhinin

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The article considers two issues: the assessment of the influence of economic development on the environment and the assessment of the impact of climate change on the development of certain economic sectors. The authors used methods of statistical analysis and economic-mathematical modeling. The article reveals differences in the dynamics and defines the nature of the relationship between GRP per capita and emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere (including greenhouse gases for Russia’s regions. It is shown that the dynamics in some regions in 2000–2011 corresponds to the environmental Kuznets curve. The factors that affect the reduction of anthropogenic impact were determined. Several models for estimating the impact of changes in climatic conditions on the productivity of various crops were designed and tested

  2. Ecologically safe process for sulfo-aluminizing of steel parts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plyatsuk L. D.

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The present technical solution refers to the field of electrophysical and electrochemical processing of parts, in particular, to the electroerosion alloying (EEA of the surfaces of steel parts with aluminum (aluminizing and sulfur (sulfidizing, and it can be used to treat the surfaces of heat-treated steel parts in order to increase their hardness, wear resistance, to prevent frictional seizure and improve the resistance to atmospheric corrosion. When aluminizing steel parts with the use of the method of electroerosion alloying (EEA by aluminum electrode at discharge energy Wp = 0.52–6.8 J and productivity of 1.0–3.0 cm2 / min, before the EEA process by an aluminum electrode, to the surface of the part to be aluminized, there is applied a consistency substance containing sulfur and aluminum powder, and thereafter, not having waited for drying of the consistency substance, the process of aluminizing by the EEL method with an aluminum electrode is carried out, and the consistency substance should have the aluminum powder content of not more than 56 %. There have been carried out metallographic and durametric analyses of the features of the surface layers made of carbon steels after simultaneous aluminizing and sulfidizing them by the EEA method. It is shown that the structure of the layer consists of three portions, namely, a “white” layer, a diffusion zone and a base metal. Such qualitative surface layer parameters as thickness, “white” layer and transition zone microhardness values, and also roughness increase with increasing discharge energy. The “white” layer continuity for all the investigated discharge energies of Wp = 0.52, 2.60 and 6.80 J is 100 %.

  3. Microbial Ecology and Process Technology of Sourdough Fermentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vuyst, Luc; Van Kerrebroeck, Simon; Leroy, Frédéric

    2017-01-01

    From a microbiological perspective, sourdough is to be considered as a specific and stressful ecosystem, harboring yeasts and lactic acid bacteria (LAB), that is used for the production of baked goods. With respect to the metabolic impact of the sourdough microbiota, acidification (LAB), flavor formation (LAB and yeasts), and leavening (yeasts and heterofermentative LAB species) are most noticeable. Three distinct types of sourdough fermentation processes can be discerned based on the inocula applied, namely backslopped ones (type 1), those initiated with starter cultures (type 2), and those initiated with a starter culture followed by backslopping (type 3). A sourdough-characteristic LAB species is Lactobacillus sanfranciscensis. A sourdough-characteristic yeast species is Candida humilis. Although it has been suggested that the microbiota of a specific sourdough may be influenced by its geographical origin, region specificity often seems to be an artefact resulting from interpretation of the research data, as those are dependent on sampling, isolation, and identification procedures. It is however clear that sourdough-adapted microorganisms are able to withstand stress conditions encountered during their growth. Based on the technological setup, type 0 (predoughs), type I (artisan bakery firm sourdoughs), type II (industrial liquid sourdoughs), and type III sourdoughs (industrial dried sourdoughs) can be distinguished. The production of all sourdoughs, independent of their classification, depends on several intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Both the flour (type, quality status, etc.) and the process parameters (fermentation temperature, pH and pH evolution, dough yield, water activity, oxygen tension, backslopping procedure and fermentation duration, etc.) determine the dynamics and outcome of (backslopped) sourdough fermentation processes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

    2007-01-01

    Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.

  5. Mixed-Poisson Point Process with Partially-Observed Covariates: Ecological Momentary Assessment of Smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neustifter, Benjamin; Rathbun, Stephen L; Shiffman, Saul

    2012-01-01

    Ecological Momentary Assessment is an emerging method of data collection in behavioral research that may be used to capture the times of repeated behavioral events on electronic devices, and information on subjects' psychological states through the electronic administration of questionnaires at times selected from a probability-based design as well as the event times. A method for fitting a mixed Poisson point process model is proposed for the impact of partially-observed, time-varying covariates on the timing of repeated behavioral events. A random frailty is included in the point-process intensity to describe variation among subjects in baseline rates of event occurrence. Covariate coefficients are estimated using estimating equations constructed by replacing the integrated intensity in the Poisson score equations with a design-unbiased estimator. An estimator is also proposed for the variance of the random frailties. Our estimators are robust in the sense that no model assumptions are made regarding the distribution of the time-varying covariates or the distribution of the random effects. However, subject effects are estimated under gamma frailties using an approximate hierarchical likelihood. The proposed approach is illustrated using smoking data.

  6. [Measuring water ecological carrying capacity with the ecosystem-service-based ecological footprint (ESEF) method: Theory, models and application].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Wen-jun; Min, Qing-wen; Li, Wen-hua; Fuller, Anthony M

    2015-04-01

    Integrated watershed management based on aquatic ecosystems has been increasingly acknowledged. Such a change in the philosophy of water environment management requires recognizing the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems for human society from a more general perspective. The concept of the water ecological carrying capacity is therefore put forward, which considers both water resources and water environment, connects socio-economic development to aquatic ecosystems and provides strong support for integrated watershed management. In this paper, the authors proposed an ESEF-based measure of water ecological carrying capacity and constructed ESEF-based models of water ecological footprint and capacity, aiming to evaluate water ecological carrying capacity with footprint methods. A regional model of Taihu Lake Basin was constructed and applied to evaluate the water ecological carrying capacity in Changzhou City which located in the upper reaches of the basin. Results showed that human demand for water ecosystem services in this city had exceeded the supply capacity of local aquatic ecosystems and the significant gap between demand and supply had jeopardized the sustainability of local aquatic ecosystems. Considering aqua-product provision, water supply and pollutant absorption in an integrated way, the scale of population and economy aquatic ecosystems in Changzhou could bear only 54% of the current status.

  7. Testing a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, E Mark; Merrilees, Christine E; Schermerhorn, Alice C; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2010-05-01

    Relations between political violence and child adjustment are matters of international concern. Past research demonstrates the significance of community, family, and child psychological processes in child adjustment, supporting study of interrelations between multiple social ecological factors and child adjustment in contexts of political violence. Testing a social ecological model, 300 mothers and their children (M = 12.28 years, SD = 1.77) from Catholic and Protestant working class neighborhoods in Belfast, Northern Ireland, completed measures of community discord, family relations, and children's regulatory processes (i.e., emotional security) and outcomes. Historical political violence in neighborhoods based on objective records (i.e., politically motivated deaths) were related to family members' reports of current sectarian antisocial behavior and nonsectarian antisocial behavior. Interparental conflict and parental monitoring and children's emotional security about both the community and family contributed to explanatory pathways for relations between sectarian antisocial behavior in communities and children's adjustment problems. The discussion evaluates support for social ecological models for relations between political violence and child adjustment and its implications for understanding relations in other parts of the world.

  8. Generating process model collections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Z.; Dijkman, R.M.; Grefen, P.W.P.J.

    2017-01-01

    Business process management plays an important role in the management of organizations. More and more organizations describe their operations as business processes. It is common for organizations to have collections of thousands of business processes, but for reasons of confidentiality these

  9. Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Robert J.; Acevedo, M.A.; Reichert, Brian E.; Pias, Kyle E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

    2011-01-01

    Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

  10. Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Robert J; Acevedo, Miguel A; Reichert, Brian E; Pias, Kyle E; Kitchens, Wiley M

    2011-11-29

    Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

  11. Eco-Anthropic Compatibility - a Multidisciplinary Model in Urban Ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIANO L. BIANCA

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I propose a multidisciplinary model of urban development which goes beyond the notion of ecological sustainability, by building on the concept of eco-anthropic compatibility. First of all I will sketch the historical development of human aggregations and I will underline the difference between ancient and modern aggregations. On the basis of this analysis, I will take into consideration the notion of sustainability and its possible application to present conurbations. I will underline several limits of the notion of sustainable development and I will propose a multidisciplinary model grounded on a broader and new notion: the eco-anthropic compatibility. Using this notion, which includes the idea of sustainability, it is possible to handle, within the model, the human factors and human living conditions inside an urban aggregation. Finally, I will state that the actual urban model is decaying and therefore, sooner or later, we will have to face the end of urban civilization; for this reason we can start imagining new future ways for human aggregations on the planet based on the notion of eco-anthropic compatibility.

  12. Pattern-oriented modelling: a ‘multi-scope’ for predictive systems ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Volker; Railsback, Steven F.

    2012-01-01

    Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels—especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour—is essential for making the science predictive. ‘Pattern-oriented modelling’ (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions. PMID:22144392

  13. Influences of Coupled Hydrologic and Microbial Processes on River Corridor Biogeochemistry and Ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibe, T. D.; Song, H. S.; Stegen, J.; Graham, E.; Bao, J.; Goldman, A.; Zhou, T.; Crump, A.; Hou, Z.; Hammond, G. E.; Chen, X.; Huang, M.; Zhang, X.; Nelson, W. C.; Garayburu-Caruso, V. A.

    2017-12-01

    The exchange of water between rivers and surrounding subsurface environments (hydrologic exchange flows or HEFs) is a vital aspect of river ecology and watershed function. HEFs play a key role in water quality, nutrient cycling, and ecosystem health, and they modulate water temperatures and enhance exchange of terrestrial and aquatic nutrients, which lead to elevated biogeochemical activity. However, these coupled hydrologic and microbiological processes are not well understood, particularly in the context of large managed river systems with highly variable discharge, and are poorly represented in system-scale quantitative models. Using the 75 km Hanford Reach of the Columbia River as the research domain, we apply high-resolution flow simulations supported by field observations to understand how variable river discharge interacts with hydromorphic and hydrogeologic structures to generate HEFs and distributions of subsurface residence times. We combine this understanding of hydrologic processes with microbiological activity measurements and reactive transport models to elucidate the holistic impacts of variable discharge on river corridor (surface and subsurface) ecosystems. In particular, our project seeks to develop and test new conceptual and numerical models that explicitly incorporate i) the character (chemical speciation and thermodynamics) of natural organic matter as it varies along flow paths and through mixing of groundwater and surface water, and ii) the history-dependent response of microbial communities to varying time scales of inundation associated with fluctuations in river discharge. The results of these high-resolution mechanistic models are guiding formulation and parameterization of reduced-order models applicable at reach to watershed scales. New understanding of coupled hydrology and microbiology in the river corridor will play a key role in reduction of uncertainties associated with major Earth system biogeochemical fluxes, improving

  14. What makes process models understandable?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mendling, J.; Reijers, H.A.; Cardoso, J.; Alonso, G.; Dadam, P.; Rosemann, M.

    2007-01-01

    Despite that formal and informal quality aspects are of significant importance to business process modeling, there is only little empirical work reported on process model quality and its impact factors. In this paper we investigate understandability as a proxy for quality of process models and focus

  15. The role of ecology, neutral processes and antagonistic coevolution in an apparent sexual arms race.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Jennifer C; Garroway, Colin J; Rowe, Locke

    2017-09-01

    Some of the strongest examples of a sexual 'arms race' come from observations of correlated evolution in sexually antagonistic traits among populations. However, it remains unclear whether these cases truly represent sexually antagonistic coevolution; alternatively, ecological or neutral processes might also drive correlated evolution. To investigate these alternatives, we evaluated the contributions of intersex genetic correlations, ecological context, neutral genetic divergence and sexual coevolution in the correlated evolution of antagonistic traits among populations of Gerris incognitus water striders. We could not detect intersex genetic correlations for these sexually antagonistic traits. Ecological variation was related to population variation in the key female antagonistic trait (spine length, a defence against males), as well as body size. Nevertheless, population covariation between sexually antagonistic traits remained substantial and significant even after accounting for all of these processes. Our results therefore provide strong evidence for a contemporary sexual arms race. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  16. A Social-Ecological Resilience Assessment and Governance Guide for Urbanization Processes in East China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Zhang

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a social-ecological resilience assessment and attempts to explicitly examine the impacts of urbanization on resilience, with a view to explore how to strengthen social-ecological governance of the resilience of urban ecosystems. We use a combined Grey-Fuzzy evaluation model to discuss a case study of the Su-Xi-Chang city cluster, a metropolitan area in East China, in which total social-ecological resilience scores generally exhibited an upward trend, from 0.548 in 2001 to 0.760 in 2013. In the same period, resilience increased in relation to deterioration of environmental quality, pollution discharge, and landscape and ecological governance change, but decreased in relation to social-economic development. Besides, different contributions of indicators to their related resilience values reveal the heterogeneity of the resilience in terms of various disturbances. In addition, several scenarios are posited in an attempt to detect the relationship between social-ecological resilience and urbanization with the goal of improving urban governance. The results suggested that rapid urbanization under rigid and vertically organized forms of governance would cause the social-ecological system to lose resilience, or even to bring it near collapse. When the growth rate of urban land expansion reaches 16%, disturbances caused by urbanization would push the social-ecological system over a particular threshold, where the way it functions changes. However, it is found that adaptive and collaborative governance, incorporating increases in both public participation and the efficiency of environment administration, would strengthen social-ecological governance of resilience to provide the urban system with a wide operating space, and even with accelerated urbanization ratios.

  17. Strategies for fitting nonlinear ecological models in R, AD Model Builder, and BUGS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolker, Benjamin M.; Gardner, Beth; Maunder, Mark; Berg, Casper W.; Brooks, Mollie; Comita, Liza; Crone, Elizabeth; Cubaynes, Sarah; Davies, Trevor; de Valpine, Perry; Ford, Jessica; Gimenez, Olivier; Kéry, Marc; Kim, Eun Jung; Lennert-Cody, Cleridy; Magunsson, Arni; Martell, Steve; Nash, John; Nielson, Anders; Regentz, Jim; Skaug, Hans; Zipkin, Elise

    2013-01-01

    1. Ecologists often use nonlinear fitting techniques to estimate the parameters of complex ecological models, with attendant frustration. This paper compares three open-source model fitting tools and discusses general strategies for defining and fitting models. 2. R is convenient and (relatively) easy to learn, AD Model Builder is fast and robust but comes with a steep learning curve, while BUGS provides the greatest flexibility at the price of speed. 3. Our model-fitting suggestions range from general cultural advice (where possible, use the tools and models that are most common in your subfield) to specific suggestions about how to change the mathematical description of models to make them more amenable to parameter estimation. 4. A companion web site (https://groups.nceas.ucsb.edu/nonlinear-modeling/projects) presents detailed examples of application of the three tools to a variety of typical ecological estimation problems; each example links both to a detailed project report and to full source code and data.

  18. A new quantitative model of ecological compensation based on ecosystem capital in Zhejiang Province, China*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yan; Huang, Jing-feng; Peng, Dai-liang

    2009-01-01

    Ecological compensation is becoming one of key and multidiscipline issues in the field of resources and environmental management. Considering the change relation between gross domestic product (GDP) and ecological capital (EC) based on remote sensing estimation, we construct a new quantitative estimate model for ecological compensation, using county as study unit, and determine standard value so as to evaluate ecological compensation from 2001 to 2004 in Zhejiang Province, China. Spatial differences of the ecological compensation were significant among all the counties or districts. This model fills up the gap in the field of quantitative evaluation of regional ecological compensation and provides a feasible way to reconcile the conflicts among benefits in the economic, social, and ecological sectors. PMID:19353749

  19. Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that

  20. A Cognition-based View of Decision Processes in Complex Social-Ecological Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathi K. Beratan

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This synthesis paper is intended to provide an overview of individual and collective decision-making processes that might serve as a theoretical foundation for a complexity-based approach to environmental policy design and natural resource management planning. Human activities are the primary drivers of change in the Earth's biosphere today, so efforts to shift the trajectory of social-ecological systems must focus on changes in individual and collective human behavior. Recent advances in understanding the biological basis of thought and memory offer insights of use in designing management and planning processes. The human brain has evolved ways of dealing with complexity and uncertainty, and is particularly attuned to social information. Changes in an individual's schemas, reflecting changes in the patterns of neural connections that are activated by particular stimuli, occur primarily through nonconsious processes in response to experiential learning during repeated exposure to novel situations, ideas, and relationships. Discourse is an important mechanism for schema modification, and thus for behavior change. Through discourse, groups of people construct a shared story - a collective model - that is useful for predicting likely outcomes of actions and events. In effect, good stories are models that filter and organize distributed knowledge about complex situations and relationships in ways that are readily absorbed by human cognitive processes. The importance of discourse supports the view that collaborative approaches are needed to effectively deal with environmental problems and natural resource management challenges. Methods derived from the field of mediation and dispute resolution can help us take advantage of the distinctly human ability to deal with complexity and uncertainty. This cognitive view of decision making supports fundamental elements of resilience management and adaptive co-management, including fostering social learning

  1. Perspectives on why digital ecologies matter: combining population genetics and ecologically informed agent-based models with GIS for managing dipteran livestock pests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, Steven L

    2014-10-01

    It is becoming clear that handling the inherent complexity found in ecological systems is an essential task for finding ways to control insect pests of tropical livestock such as tsetse flies, and old and new world screwworms. In particular, challenging multivalent management programs, such as Area Wide Integrated Pest Management (AW-IPM), face daunting problems of complexity at multiple spatial scales, ranging from landscape level processes to those of smaller scales such as the parasite loads of individual animals. Daunting temporal challenges also await resolution, such as matching management time frames to those found on ecological and even evolutionary temporal scales. How does one deal with representing processes with models that involve multiple spatial and temporal scales? Agent-based models (ABM), combined with geographic information systems (GIS), may allow for understanding, predicting and managing pest control efforts in livestock pests. This paper argues that by incorporating digital ecologies in our management efforts clearer and more informed decisions can be made. I also point out the power of these models in making better predictions in order to anticipate the range of outcomes possible or likely. Copyright © 2014 International Atomic Energy Agency 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

    2013-05-15

    Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Towards an Ecology of Participation: Process Philosophy and Co-Creation of Higher Education Curricula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Carol A.; Bovill, Catherine

    2018-01-01

    This article brings together the authors' previous work on co-created curricula (Bovill, 2013a, 2014; Bovill et al., 2011) and on partnership and ethics (Taylor, 2015; Taylor and Robinson, 2014), to develop the concept of co-created curricula as an ecology of participation. In doing so, it deploys Alfred North Whitehead's process philosophy to…

  4. Simulation of regionally ecological land based on a cellular automation model: a case study of Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

    2012-08-01

    Ecological land is like the "liver" of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem.

  5. Simulation of Regionally Ecological Land Based on a Cellular Automation Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiubin Li

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Ecological land is like the “liver” of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem.

  6. The role of ecological models in linking ecological risk assessment to ecosystem services in agroecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galic, N.G.; Schmolke, A.; Forbes, V.; Baveco, J.M.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2012-01-01

    Agricultural practices are essential for sustaining the human population, but at the same time they can directly disrupt ecosystem functioning. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) aims to estimate possible adverse effects of human activities on ecosystems and their parts. Current ERA practices,

  7. Modelling dendritic ecological networks in space: An integrated network perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erin E. Peterson; Jay M. Ver Hoef; Dan J. Isaak; Jeffrey A. Falke; Marie-Josee Fortin; Chris E. Jordan; Kristina McNyset; Pascal Monestiez; Aaron S. Ruesch; Aritra Sengupta; Nicholas Som; E. Ashley Steel; David M. Theobald; Christian E. Torgersen; Seth J. Wenger

    2013-01-01

    Dendritic ecological networks (DENs) are a unique form of ecological networks that exhibit a dendritic network topology (e.g. stream and cave networks or plant architecture). DENs have a dual spatial representation; as points within the network and as points in geographical space. Consequently, some analytical methods used to quantify relationships in other types of...

  8. Interdisciplinary Industrial Ecology Education: Recommendations for an Inclusive Pedagogical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Archana

    2009-01-01

    Industrial ecology education is being developed and delivered predominantly within the domains of engineering and management. Such an approach could prove somewhat limiting to the broader goal of developing industrial ecology as an integrated knowledge base inclusive of diverse disciplines, contributing to sustainable development. This paper…

  9. Ecological modeling for forest management in the Shawnee National Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard G. Thurau; J.F. Fralish; S. Hupe; B. Fitch; A.D. Carver

    2008-01-01

    Land managers of the Shawnee National Forest in southern Illinois are challenged to meet the needs of a diverse populace of stakeholders. By classifying National Forest holdings into management units, U.S. Forest Service personnel can spatially allocate resources and services to meet local management objectives. Ecological Classification Systems predict ecological site...

  10. Public sector administration of ecological economics systems using mediated modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Belt, Marjan; Kenyan, Jennifer R; Krueger, Elizabeth; Maynard, Alison; Roy, Matthew Galen; Raphael, Ian

    2010-01-01

    In today's climate of government outsourcing and multiple stakeholder involvement in public sector management and service delivery, it is more important than ever to rethink and redesign the structure of how policy decisions are made, implemented, monitored, and adapted to new realities. The traditional command-and-control approach is now less effective because an increasing amount of responsibility to deliver public goods and services falls on networks of nongovernment agencies. Even though public administrators are seeking new decision-making models in an increasingly more complex environment, the public sector currently only sparsely utilizes Mediated Modeling (MM). There is growing evidence, however, that by employing MM and similar tools, public interest networks can be better equipped to deal with their long-term viability while maintaining the short-term needs of their clients. However, it may require a shift in organizational culture within and between organizations to achieve the desired results. This paper explores the successes and barriers to implementing MM and similar tools in the public sector and offers insights into utilizing them through a review of case studies and interdisciplinary literature. We aim to raise a broader interest in MM and similar tools among public sector administrators at various administrative levels. We focus primarily, but not exclusively, on those cases operating at the interface of ecology and socio-economic systems.

  11. Separating macroecological pattern and process: comparing ecological, economic, and geological systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Blonder

    Full Text Available Theories of biodiversity rest on several macroecological patterns describing the relationship between species abundance and diversity. A central problem is that all theories make similar predictions for these patterns despite disparate assumptions. A troubling implication is that these patterns may not reflect anything unique about organizational principles of biology or the functioning of ecological systems. To test this, we analyze five datasets from ecological, economic, and geological systems that describe the distribution of objects across categories in the United States. At the level of functional form ('first-order effects', these patterns are not unique to ecological systems, indicating they may reveal little about biological process. However, we show that mechanism can be better revealed in the scale-dependency of first-order patterns ('second-order effects'. These results provide a roadmap for biodiversity theory to move beyond traditional patterns, and also suggest ways in which macroecological theory can constrain the dynamics of economic systems.

  12. Separating macroecological pattern and process: comparing ecological, economic, and geological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blonder, Benjamin; Sloat, Lindsey; Enquist, Brian J; McGill, Brian

    2014-01-01

    Theories of biodiversity rest on several macroecological patterns describing the relationship between species abundance and diversity. A central problem is that all theories make similar predictions for these patterns despite disparate assumptions. A troubling implication is that these patterns may not reflect anything unique about organizational principles of biology or the functioning of ecological systems. To test this, we analyze five datasets from ecological, economic, and geological systems that describe the distribution of objects across categories in the United States. At the level of functional form ('first-order effects'), these patterns are not unique to ecological systems, indicating they may reveal little about biological process. However, we show that mechanism can be better revealed in the scale-dependency of first-order patterns ('second-order effects'). These results provide a roadmap for biodiversity theory to move beyond traditional patterns, and also suggest ways in which macroecological theory can constrain the dynamics of economic systems.

  13. Temporal and spatial heterogeneity analysis of optimal value of sensitive parameters in ecological process model: The BIOME-BGC model as an example%生态过程模型敏感参数最优取值的时空异质性分析——以BIOME-BGC模型为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李一哲; 张廷龙; 刘秋雨; 李英

    2018-01-01

    The ecological process models are powerful tools for studying terrestrial ecosystem water and carbon cycle at present.However,there are many parameters for these models,and weather the reasonable values of these parameters were taken,have important impact on the models simulation results.In the past,the sensitivity and the optimization of model parameters were analyzed and discussed in many researches.But the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal parameters is less concerned.In this paper,the BIOME-BGC model was used as an example.In the evergreen broad-leaved forest,deciduous broad-leaved forest and C3 grassland,the sensitive parameters of the model were selected by constructing the sensitivity judgment index with two experimental sites selected under each vegetation type.The objective function was constructed by using the simulated annealing algorithm combined with the flux data to obtain the monthly optimal values of the sensitive parameters at each site.Then we constructed the temporal heterogeneity judgment index,the spatial heterogeneity judgment index and the temporal and spatial heterogeneity judgment index to quantitatively analyze the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters.The results showed that the sensitivity of BIOME-BGC model parameters was different under different vegetation types,but the selected sensitive parameters were mostly consistent.The optimal values of the sensitive parameters of BIOME-BGC model mostly presented time-space heterogeneity to different degrees which varied with vegetation types.The sensitive parameters related to vegetation physiology and ecology had relatively little temporal and spatial heterogeneity while those related to environment and phenology had generally larger temporal and spatial heterogeneity.In addition,the temporal heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters showed a significant linear correlation with the spatial

  14. Ecological assessment of integrated bioenergy systems using the Sustainable Process Index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krotscheck, C.; Konig, F.; Obernberger, I.

    2000-01-01

    Biomass utilisation for energy production presently faces an uphill battle against fossil fuels. The use of biomass must offer additional benefits to compensate for higher prices: on the basis of a life cycle assessment (using BEAM to evaluate a variety of integrated bioenergy systems in connection with the Sustainable Process Index as a highly aggregated environmental pressure index) it is shown that integrated bioenergy systems are superior to fossil fuel systems in terms of environmental compatibility. The implementation of sustainability measures provides additional valuable information that might help in constructing and optimising integrated bioenergy systems. For a set of reference processes, among them fast pyrolysis, atmospheric gasification, integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), combustion and steam cycle (CS) and conventional hydrolysis, a detailed impact assessment is shown. Sensitivity analyses of the most important ecological parameters are calculated, giving an overview of the impacts of various stages in the total life cycle and showing 'what really matters'. Much of the ecological impact of integrated bioenergy systems is induced by feedstock production. It is mainly the use of fossil fuels in cultivation, harvesting and transportation as well as the use of fertilisers in short-rotation coppice production that impose considerable ecological pressure. Concerning electricity generation the most problematic pressures are due to gaseous emissions, most notably the release of NO x . Moreover, a rather complicated process (high amount of grey energy) and the use of fossil pilot fuel (co-combustion) leads to a rather weak ecological performance in contrast to other 100% biomass-based systems. (author)

  15. Macrosystems ecology: novel methods and new understanding of multi-scale patterns and processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Songlin Fei; Qinfeng Guo; Kevin Potter

    2016-01-01

    As the global biomes are increasingly threatened by human activities, understanding of macroscale patterns and processes is pressingly needed for effective management and policy making. Macrosystems ecology, which studies multiscale ecologicalpatterns and processes, has gained growing interest in the research community. However, as a relatively new field in...

  16. Increasing the reliability of ecological models using modern software engineering techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert M. Scheller; Brian R. Sturtevant; Eric J. Gustafson; Brendan C. Ward; David J. Mladenoff

    2009-01-01

    Modern software development techniques are largely unknown to ecologists. Typically, ecological models and other software tools are developed for limited research purposes, and additional capabilities are added later, usually in an ad hoc manner. Modern software engineering techniques can substantially increase scientific rigor and confidence in ecological models and...

  17. Ecological models in support of regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: developing a strategy for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Valery E; Hommen, Udo; Thorbek, Pernille; Heimbach, Fred; Van den Brink, Paul J; Wogram, Jörn; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Grimm, Volker

    2009-01-01

    This brief communication reports on the main findings of the LEMTOX workshop, held from 9 to 12 September 2007, at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Leipzig, Germany. The workshop brought together a diverse group of stakeholders from academia, regulatory authorities, contract research organizations, and industry, representing Europe, the United States, and Asia, to discuss the role of ecological modeling in risk assessments of pesticides, particularly under the European regulatory framework. The following questions were addressed: What are the potential benefits of using ecological models in pesticide registration and risk assessment? What obstacles prevent ecological modeling from being used routinely in regulatory submissions? What actions are needed to overcome the identified obstacles? What recommendations should be made to ensure good modeling practice in this context? The workshop focused exclusively on population models, and discussion was focused on those categories of population models that link effects on individuals (e.g., survival, growth, reproduction, behavior) to effects on population dynamics. The workshop participants concluded that the overall benefits of ecological modeling are that it could bring more ecology into ecological risk assessment, and it could provide an excellent tool for exploring the importance of, and interactions among, ecological complexities. However, there are a number of challenges that need to be overcome before such models will receive wide acceptance for pesticide risk assessment, despite having been used extensively in other contexts (e.g., conservation biology). The need for guidance on Good Modeling Practice (on model development, analysis, interpretation, evaluation, documentation, and communication), as well as the need for case studies that can be used to explore the added value of ecological models for risk assessment, were identified as top priorities. Assessing recovery potential of exposed

  18. Development of a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for lakes to assess lake restoration effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Mengjia; Zou, Changxin; Zhao, Yanwei

    2017-04-01

    Environmental/ecological models are widely used for lake management as they provide a means to understand physical, chemical and biological processes in highly complex ecosystems. Most research focused on the development of environmental (water quality) and ecological models, separately. Limited studies were developed to couple the two models, and in these limited coupled models, a lake was regarded as a whole for analysis (i.e., considering the lake to be one well-mixed box), which was appropriate for small-scale lakes and was not sufficient to capture spatial variations within middle-scale or large-scale lakes. This paper seeks to establish a zoning-based environmental-ecological-coupled model for a lake. The Baiyangdian Lake, the largest freshwater lake in Northern China, was adopted as the study case. The coupled lake models including a hydrodynamics and water quality model established by MIKE21 and a compartmental ecological model used STELLA software have been established for middle-sized Baiyangdian Lake to realize the simulation of spatial variations of ecological conditions. On the basis of the flow field distribution results generated by MIKE21 hydrodynamics model, four water area zones were used as an example for compartmental ecological model calibration and validation. The results revealed that the developed coupled lake models can reasonably reflected the changes of the key state variables although there remain some state variables that are not well represented by the model due to the low quality of field monitoring data. Monitoring sites in a compartment may not be representative of the water quality and ecological conditions in the entire compartment even though that is the intention of compartment-based model design. There was only one ecological observation from a single monitoring site for some periods. This single-measurement issue may cause large discrepancies particularly when sampled site is not representative of the whole compartment. The

  19. Statistical ecology comes of age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T.; Morgan, Byron J. T.; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M.; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M.; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1–4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data. PMID:25540151

  20. Statistical ecology comes of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gimenez, Olivier; Buckland, Stephen T; Morgan, Byron J T; Bez, Nicolas; Bertrand, Sophie; Choquet, Rémi; Dray, Stéphane; Etienne, Marie-Pierre; Fewster, Rachel; Gosselin, Frédéric; Mérigot, Bastien; Monestiez, Pascal; Morales, Juan M; Mortier, Frédéric; Munoz, François; Ovaskainen, Otso; Pavoine, Sandrine; Pradel, Roger; Schurr, Frank M; Thomas, Len; Thuiller, Wilfried; Trenkel, Verena; de Valpine, Perry; Rexstad, Eric

    2014-12-01

    The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1-4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.

  1. Neuroscientific Model of Motivational Process

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Sung-il

    2013-01-01

    Considering the neuroscientific findings on reward, learning, value, decision-making, and cognitive control, motivation can be parsed into three sub processes, a process of generating motivation, a process of maintaining motivation, and a process of regulating motivation. I propose a tentative neuroscientific model of motivational processes which consists of three distinct but continuous sub processes, namely reward-driven approach, value-based decision-making, and goal-directed control. Rewa...

  2. Quantum mechanical analogy for solving a competitive coexistence model in ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wio, H.S.; Kuperman, M.N.; Haeften, B. von

    1994-07-01

    We have studied an ecological system of three species: a strong and a weak one, competing for a single food resource, modelled as a reaction-diffusion process. An exact analytical solution has been found through a quantum mechanical analogy. Such solution indicates that in certain situations the classical results on extinction and coexistence of Lotka-Volterra type equations are no longer valid, essentially, as a consequence of the weak species mobility. A stability analysis of this solution against changes in different parameters has been carried out. (author). 19 refs, 5 figs

  3. Developments in regional scale simulation: modelling ecologically sustainable development in the Northern Territory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moffatt, I.

    1992-01-01

    This paper outlines one way in which researchers can make a positive methodological contribution to the debate on ecologically sustainable development (ESD) by integrating dynamic modelling and geographical information systems to form the basis for regional scale simulations. Some of the orthodox uses of Geographic Information System (GIS) are described and it is argued that most applications do not incorporate process based causal models. A description of a pilot study into developing a processed base model of ESD in the Northern Territory is given. This dynamic process based simulation model consists of two regions namely the 'Top End' and the 'Central' district. Each region consists of ten sub-sectors and the pattern of land use represents a common sector to both regions. The role of environmental defence expenditure, including environmental rehabilitation of uranium mines, in the model is noted. Similarly, it is hypothesized that the impact of exogenous changes such as the greenhouse effect and global economic fluctuations can have a differential impact on the behaviour of several sectors of the model. Some of the problems associated with calibrating and testing the model are reviewed. Finally, it is suggested that further refinement of this model can be achieved with the pooling of data sets and the development of PC based transputers for more detailed and accurate regional scale simulations. When fully developed it is anticipated that this pilot model can be of service to environmental managers and other groups involved in promoting ESD in the Northern Territory. 54 refs., 6 figs

  4. Strategies for fitting nonlinear ecological models in R, AD Model Builder, and BUGS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bolker, B.M.; Gardner, B.; Maunder, M.

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often use nonlinear fitting techniques to estimate the parameters of complex ecological models, with attendant frustration. This paper compares three open-source model fitting tools and discusses general strategies for defining and fitting models. R is convenient and (relatively) easy...... to learn, AD Model Builder is fast and robust but comes with a steep learning curve, while BUGS provides the greatest flexibility at the price of speed. Our model-fitting suggestions range from general cultural advice (where possible, use the tools and models that are most common in your subfield...

  5. Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

  6. Rice production model based on the concept of ecological footprint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faiz, S. A.; Wicaksono, A. D.; Dinanti, D.

    2017-06-01

    Pursuant to what had been stated in Region Spatial Planning (RTRW) of Malang Regency for period 2010-2030, Malang Regency was considered as the center of agricultural development, including districts bordered with Malang City. To protect the region functioning as the provider of rice production, then the policy of sustainable food farming-land (LP2B) was made which its implementation aims to protect rice-land. In the existing condition, LP2B system was not maximally executed, and it caused a limited extend of rice-land to deliver rice production output. One cause related with the development of settlements and industries due to the effect of Malang City that converted land-function. Location of research focused on 30 villages with direct border with Malang City. Review was conducted to develop a model of relation between farming production output and ecological footprint variables. These variables include rice-land area (X1), built land percentage (X2), and number of farmers (X3). Analysis technique was regression. Result of regression indicated that the model of rice production output Y=-207,983 + 10.246X1. Rice-land area (X1) was the most influential independent variable. It was concluded that of villages directly bordered with Malang City, there were 11 villages with higher production potential because their rice production yield was more than 1,000 tons/year, while 12 villages were threatened with low production output because its rice production yield only attained 500 tons/year. Based on the model and the spatial direction of RTRW, it can be said that the direction for the farming development policy must be redesigned to maintain rice-land area on the regions on which agricultural activity was still dominant. Because rice-land area was the most influential factor to farming production. Therefore, the wider the rice-land is, the higher rice production output is on each village.

  7. Mathematical modeling of biomass fuels formation process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaska, Krzysztof; Wandrasz, Andrzej J.

    2008-01-01

    The increasing demand for thermal and electric energy in many branches of industry and municipal management accounts for a drastic diminishing of natural resources (fossil fuels). Meanwhile, in numerous technical processes, a huge mass of wastes is produced. A segregated and converted combustible fraction of the wastes, with relatively high calorific value, may be used as a component of formed fuels. The utilization of the formed fuel components from segregated groups of waste in associated processes of co-combustion with conventional fuels causes significant savings resulting from partial replacement of fossil fuels, and reduction of environmental pollution resulting directly from the limitation of waste migration to the environment (soil, atmospheric air, surface and underground water). The realization of technological processes with the utilization of formed fuel in associated thermal systems should be qualified by technical criteria, which means that elementary processes as well as factors of sustainable development, from a global viewpoint, must not be disturbed. The utilization of post-process waste should be preceded by detailed technical, ecological and economic analyses. In order to optimize the mixing process of fuel components, a mathematical model of the forming process was created. The model is defined as a group of data structures which uniquely identify a real process and conversion of this data in algorithms based on a problem of linear programming. The paper also presents the optimization of parameters in the process of forming fuels using a modified simplex algorithm with a polynomial worktime. This model is a datum-point in the numerical modeling of real processes, allowing a precise determination of the optimal elementary composition of formed fuels components, with assumed constraints and decision variables of the task

  8. Branching process models of cancer

    CERN Document Server

    Durrett, Richard

    2015-01-01

    This volume develops results on continuous time branching processes and applies them to study rate of tumor growth, extending classic work on the Luria-Delbruck distribution. As a consequence, the authors calculate the probability that mutations that confer resistance to treatment are present at detection and quantify the extent of tumor heterogeneity. As applications, the authors evaluate ovarian cancer screening strategies and give rigorous proofs for results of Heano and Michor concerning tumor metastasis. These notes should be accessible to students who are familiar with Poisson processes and continuous time. Richard Durrett is mathematics professor at Duke University, USA. He is the author of 8 books, over 200 journal articles, and has supervised more than 40 Ph.D. students. Most of his current research concerns the applications of probability to biology: ecology, genetics, and most recently cancer.

  9. Using ecological niche modeling to determine avian richness hotspots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Mirzaei

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Understanding distributions of wildlife species is a key step towards identifying biodiversity hotspots and designing effective conservation strategies. In this paper, the spatial pattern of diversity of birds in Golestan Province, Iran was estimated. Ecological niche modeling was used to determine distributions of 144 bird species across the province using a maximum entropy algorithm. Richness maps across all birds, and separately for rare and threatened species, were prepared as approximations to hotspots. Results showed close similarity between hotspots for all birds and those for rare birds; hotspots were concentrated in the southern and especially the southwestern parts of the province. Hotspots for threatened birds tended more to the central and especially the western parts of the province, which include coastal habitats. Based on three criteria, it is clear that the western part is the most important area of the province in terms of bird Faunas. Despite some shortcomings, hotspot analysis for birds could be applied to guide conservation efforts and provide useful tool towards efficient conservation action.

  10. Modeling the ecological impacts of Flaming Gorge Dam operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, S.C.L.; LaGory, K.E.; Hayse, J.W.; Hlohowskyj, I.; Van Lonkhuyzen, R.A.; Cho, H.E.

    1996-01-01

    Hydropower operations at Flaming Gorge Dam on the Green River in Utah, US, can produce rapid downstream changes in flow and stage during a day. These changes can, in turn, affect ecological resources below the dam, including riparian vegetation, trout, and endangered fish. Four hydropower operational scenarios featuring varying degrees of hydropower-induced flow fluctuation were evaluated with hydrologic models and multispectral aerial videography of the river. Year-round high fluctuations would support the least amount of stable spawning habitat for trout and nursery habitat for endangered fish, and would have the greatest potential for reducing growth and over winter survival of fish. Seasonally, adjusted moderate fluctuation and seasonally adjusted steady flow scenarios could increase food production and over winter survival and would provide the greatest amount of spawning and nursery habitat for fish. The year-round high fluctuation, seasonally adjusted high fluctuation, and seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuation scenarios would result in a 5% decrease in upper riparian zone habitat. the seasonally adjusted steady flow scenario would result in an 8% increase in upper riparian zone habitat. Lower riparian zone habitat would increase by about 17% for year-round and seasonally adjusted high fluctuating flow scenarios but decrease by about 24% and 69% for seasonally adjusted moderate fluctuating and steady flow scenarios, respectively

  11. Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Eric W; Hill, Ryan A; Leibowitz, Scott G; Olsen, Anthony R; Thornbrugh, Darren J; Weber, Marc H

    2017-07-01

    Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological data sets, there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, either a preselected set of predictor variables are used or stepwise procedures are employed which iteratively remove variables according to their importance measures. This paper investigates the application of variable selection methods to RF models for predicting probable biological stream condition. Our motivating data set consists of the good/poor condition of n = 1365 stream survey sites from the 2008/2009 National Rivers and Stream Assessment, and a large set (p = 212) of landscape features from the StreamCat data set as potential predictors. We compare two types of RF models: a full variable set model with all 212 predictors and a reduced variable set model selected using a backward elimination approach. We assess model accuracy using RF's internal out-of-bag estimate, and a cross-validation procedure with validation folds external to the variable selection process. We also assess the stability of the spatial predictions generated by the RF models to changes in the number of predictors and argue that model selection needs to consider both accuracy and stability. The results suggest that RF modeling is robust to the inclusion of many variables of moderate to low importance. We found no substantial improvement in cross-validated accuracy as a result of variable reduction. Moreover, the backward elimination procedure tended to select too few variables and exhibited numerous issues such as upwardly biased out-of-bag accuracy estimates and instabilities in the spatial predictions. We use simulations to further support and generalize results from the analysis of real data. A main purpose of this work is to elucidate issues of model selection bias and instability to ecologists interested in

  12. Ecological studies in the NRDA process: Some guidelines for what is necessary and what is not

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rebilliard, G.A.

    1993-01-01

    Biological resources are usually the primary focus of a natural resource damage assessment (NRDA). The NRDA should emphasize ecological studies on resources that sustained substantial injuries resulting in significant reduction of services and loss of use, and thus in substantial damages. Further, assessment costs should be ''reasonable.'' Congress, in passing the laws providing for NRDAs, did not intend that every conceivable injury to every biological resource be documented; this is economically and scientifically unreasonable. Congress did however intend that the NRDA process should be objective, based on sound science, and focused on restoration of the injured resources and services. Appropriate ecological studies should focus on the dominant sensitive habitats, major recreational species, threatened, endangered and otherwise ''sensitive'' species, and ecologically ''key'' species. However, many NRDAs have been and are being conducted in an adversarial atmosphere where the threat of litigation, not cooperation, prevails. This results in additional studies of insignificant, extremely speculative, and/or highly improbable injuries that objective, experienced ecologists would agree will not have ecological significance and should not result in damages. These studies waste time and money for all parties involved. They erode the credibility of the scientists involved as well as the credibility of the whole NRDA process. Examples of both necessary and unnecessary studies will be drawn from several oil spills including Exxon Valdez, Exxon Bayway Pipeline Leak, and Shell Martinez Manufacturing complex

  13. Calibration and analysis of genome-based models for microbial ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louca, Stilianos; Doebeli, Michael

    2015-10-16

    Microbial ecosystem modeling is complicated by the large number of unknown parameters and the lack of appropriate calibration tools. Here we present a novel computational framework for modeling microbial ecosystems, which combines genome-based model construction with statistical analysis and calibration to experimental data. Using this framework, we examined the dynamics of a community of Escherichia coli strains that emerged in laboratory evolution experiments, during which an ancestral strain diversified into two coexisting ecotypes. We constructed a microbial community model comprising the ancestral and the evolved strains, which we calibrated using separate monoculture experiments. Simulations reproduced the successional dynamics in the evolution experiments, and pathway activation patterns observed in microarray transcript profiles. Our approach yielded detailed insights into the metabolic processes that drove bacterial diversification, involving acetate cross-feeding and competition for organic carbon and oxygen. Our framework provides a missing link towards a data-driven mechanistic microbial ecology.

  14. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  15. Modeling of column apparatus processes

    CERN Document Server

    Boyadjiev, Christo; Boyadjiev, Boyan; Popova-Krumova, Petya

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a new approach for the modeling of chemical and interphase mass transfer processes in industrial column apparatuses, using convection-diffusion and average-concentration models. The convection-diffusion type models are used for a qualitative analysis of the processes and to assess the main, small and slight physical effects, and then reject the slight effects. As a result, the process mechanism can be identified. It also introduces average concentration models for quantitative analysis, which use the average values of the velocity and concentration over the cross-sectional area of the column. The new models are used to analyze different processes (simple and complex chemical reactions, absorption, adsorption and catalytic reactions), and make it possible to model the processes of gas purification with sulfur dioxide, which form the basis of several patents.

  16. UML in business process modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartosz Marcinkowski

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Selection and proper application of business process modeling methods and techniques have a significant impact on organizational improvement capabilities as well as proper understanding of functionality of information systems that shall support activity of the organization. A number of business process modeling notations were popularized in practice in recent decades. Most significant of the notations include Business Process Modeling Notation (OMG BPMN and several Unified Modeling Language (OMG UML extensions. In this paper, the assessment whether one of the most flexible and strictly standardized contemporary business process modeling notations, i.e. Rational UML Profile for Business Modeling, enable business analysts to prepare business models that are all-embracing and understandable by all the stakeholders. After the introduction, methodology of research is discussed. Section 2 presents selected case study results. The paper is concluded with a summary.

  17. Place prioritization for biodiversity content using species ecological niche modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Sánchez-Cordero

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Place prioritization for biodiversity representation is essential for conservation planning, particularly in megadiverse countries where high deforestation threatens biodiversity. Given the collecting biases and uneven sampling of biological inventories, there is a need to develop robust models of species’ distributions. By modeling species’ ecological niches using point occurrence data and digitized environmental feature maps, we can predict potential and extant distributions of species in untransformed landscapes, as well as in those transformed by vegetation change (including deforestation. Such distributional predictions provide a framework for use of species as biodiversity surrogates in place prioritization procedures such as those based on rarity and complementarity. Beyond biodiversity conservation, these predictions can also be used for place prioritization for ecological restoration under current conditions and under future scenarios of habitat change (e.g., deforestation scenarios. To illustrate these points, we (1 predict distributions under current and future deforestation scenarios for the Mexican endemic mammal Dipodomys phillipsii, and show how areas for restoration may be selected; and (2 propose conservation areas by combining nonvolant mammal distributional predictions as biodiversity surrogates with place prioritization procedures, to connect decreed natural protected areas in a region holding exceptional biodiversity: the Transvolcanic Belt in central Mexico. La selección de áreas prioritarias de conservación es fundamental en la planeación sistemática de la conservación, particularmente en países de mega-diversidad, en donde la alta deforestación es una de las amenazas a la biodiversidad. Debido a los sesgos taxonómicos y geográficos de colecta de los inventarios biológicos, es indispensable generar modelos robustos de distribución de especies. Al modelar el nicho ecológico de especies usando localidades de

  18. Business Process Modeling: Perceived Benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indulska, Marta; Green, Peter; Recker, Jan; Rosemann, Michael

    The process-centered design of organizations and information systems is globally seen as an appropriate response to the increased economic pressure on organizations. At the methodological core of process-centered management is process modeling. However, business process modeling in large initiatives can be a time-consuming and costly exercise, making it potentially difficult to convince executive management of its benefits. To date, and despite substantial interest and research in the area of process modeling, the understanding of the actual benefits of process modeling in academia and practice is limited. To address this gap, this paper explores the perception of benefits derived from process modeling initiatives, as reported through a global Delphi study. The study incorporates the views of three groups of stakeholders - academics, practitioners and vendors. Our findings lead to the first identification and ranking of 19 unique benefits associated with process modeling. The study in particular found that process modeling benefits vary significantly between practitioners and academics. We argue that the variations may point to a disconnect between research projects and practical demands.

  19. Conceptual ecological models to guide integrated landscape monitoring of the Great Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, D.M.; Finn, S.P.; Woodward, Andrea; Torregrosa, Alicia; Miller, M.E.; Bedford, D.R.; Brasher, A.M.

    2010-01-01

    The Great Basin Integrated Landscape Monitoring Pilot Project was developed in response to the need for a monitoring and predictive capability that addresses changes in broad landscapes and waterscapes. Human communities and needs are nested within landscapes formed by interactions among the hydrosphere, geosphere, and biosphere. Understanding the complex processes that shape landscapes and deriving ways to manage them sustainably while meeting human needs require sophisticated modeling and monitoring. This document summarizes current understanding of ecosystem structure and function for many of the ecosystems within the Great Basin using conceptual models. The conceptual ecosystem models identify key ecological components and processes, identify external drivers, develop a hierarchical set of models that address both site and landscape attributes, inform regional monitoring strategy, and identify critical gaps in our knowledge of ecosystem function. The report also illustrates an approach for temporal and spatial scaling from site-specific models to landscape models and for understanding cumulative effects. Eventually, conceptual models can provide a structure for designing monitoring programs, interpreting monitoring and other data, and assessing the accuracy of our understanding of ecosystem functions and processes.

  20. The Gut Microbiota of Rural Papua New Guineans: Composition, Diversity Patterns, and Ecological Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inés Martínez

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Although recent research revealed an impact of westernization on diversity and composition of the human gut microbiota, the exact consequences on metacommunity characteristics are insufficiently understood, and the underlying ecological mechanisms have not been elucidated. Here, we have compared the fecal microbiota of adults from two non-industrialized regions in Papua New Guinea (PNG with that of United States (US residents. Papua New Guineans harbor communities with greater bacterial diversity, lower inter-individual variation, vastly different abundance profiles, and bacterial lineages undetectable in US residents. A quantification of the ecological processes that govern community assembly identified bacterial dispersal as the dominant process that shapes the microbiome in PNG but not in the US. These findings suggest that the microbiome alterations detected in industrialized societies might arise from modern lifestyle factors limiting bacterial dispersal, which has implications for human health and the development of strategies aimed to redress the impact of westernization.

  1. A Social-Ecological, Process-Oriented Perspective on Political Violence and Child Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, E Mark; Goeke-Morey, Marcie; Merrilees, Christine E; Taylor, Laura K; Shirlow, Peter A

    2014-06-01

    Youths' risk for adjustment problems in contexts of political violence is well-documented. However, outcomes vary widely, with many children functioning well. Accordingly, moving beyond further documenting the risk for many negative outcomes associated with living in contexts of political violence, a second generation of research is moving towards identifying the mechanisms and conditions that contribute to children's adjustment. Increasing support is emerging for understanding effects on children in terms of changes in the social contexts in which children live, and in the psychological processes engaged by these social ecologies. Selected themes are considered, including (a) the need to study multiple levels of the social ecology, (b) differentiating between the effects of exposure to contexts of political versus non-political violence, and (c) theories about explanatory processes. Selected research pertinent to these directions is reviewed, including findings from a six-wave longitudinal study on political violence and children in Northern Ireland.

  2. Does niche divergence accompany allopatric divergence in Aphelocoma jays as predicted under ecological speciation? Insights from tests with niche models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, John E; Zellmer, Amanda J; Knowles, L Lacey

    2010-05-01

    The role of ecology in the origin of species has been the subject of long-standing interest to evolutionary biologists. New sources of spatially explicit ecological data allow for large-scale tests of whether speciation is associated with niche divergence or whether closely related species tend to be similar ecologically (niche conservatism). Because of the confounding effects of spatial autocorrelation of environmental variables, we generate null expectations for niche divergence for both an ecological-niche modeling and a multivariate approach to address the question: do allopatrically distributed taxa occupy similar niches? In a classic system for the study of niche evolution--the Aphelocoma jays--we show that there is little evidence for niche divergence among Mexican Jay (A. ultramarina) lineages in the process of speciation, contrary to previous results. In contrast, Aphelocoma species that exist in partial sympatry in some regions show evidence for niche divergence. Our approach is widely applicable to the many cases of allopatric lineages in the beginning stages of speciation. These results do not support an ecological speciation model for Mexican Jay lineages because, in most cases, the allopatric environments they occupy are not significantly more divergent than expected under a null model.

  3. Conceptual models of information processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, L. J.

    1983-01-01

    The conceptual information processing issues are examined. Human information processing is defined as an active cognitive process that is analogous to a system. It is the flow and transformation of information within a human. The human is viewed as an active information seeker who is constantly receiving, processing, and acting upon the surrounding environmental stimuli. Human information processing models are conceptual representations of cognitive behaviors. Models of information processing are useful in representing the different theoretical positions and in attempting to define the limits and capabilities of human memory. It is concluded that an understanding of conceptual human information processing models and their applications to systems design leads to a better human factors approach.

  4. Business process modeling in healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Francisco; Garcia, Felix; Calahorra, Luis; Llorente, César; Gonçalves, Luis; Daniel, Christel; Blobel, Bernd

    2012-01-01

    The importance of the process point of view is not restricted to a specific enterprise sector. In the field of health, as a result of the nature of the service offered, health institutions' processes are also the basis for decision making which is focused on achieving their objective of providing quality medical assistance. In this chapter the application of business process modelling - using the Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) standard is described. Main challenges of business process modelling in healthcare are the definition of healthcare processes, the multi-disciplinary nature of healthcare, the flexibility and variability of the activities involved in health care processes, the need of interoperability between multiple information systems, and the continuous updating of scientific knowledge in healthcare.

  5. Modeling nuclear processes by Simulink

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rashid, Nahrul Khair Alang Md, E-mail: nahrul@iium.edu.my [Faculty of Engineering, International Islamic University Malaysia, Jalan Gombak, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2015-04-29

    Modelling and simulation are essential parts in the study of dynamic systems behaviours. In nuclear engineering, modelling and simulation are important to assess the expected results of an experiment before the actual experiment is conducted or in the design of nuclear facilities. In education, modelling can give insight into the dynamic of systems and processes. Most nuclear processes can be described by ordinary or partial differential equations. Efforts expended to solve the equations using analytical or numerical solutions consume time and distract attention from the objectives of modelling itself. This paper presents the use of Simulink, a MATLAB toolbox software that is widely used in control engineering, as a modelling platform for the study of nuclear processes including nuclear reactor behaviours. Starting from the describing equations, Simulink models for heat transfer, radionuclide decay process, delayed neutrons effect, reactor point kinetic equations with delayed neutron groups, and the effect of temperature feedback are used as examples.

  6. Modeling nuclear processes by Simulink

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rashid, Nahrul Khair Alang Md

    2015-01-01

    Modelling and simulation are essential parts in the study of dynamic systems behaviours. In nuclear engineering, modelling and simulation are important to assess the expected results of an experiment before the actual experiment is conducted or in the design of nuclear facilities. In education, modelling can give insight into the dynamic of systems and processes. Most nuclear processes can be described by ordinary or partial differential equations. Efforts expended to solve the equations using analytical or numerical solutions consume time and distract attention from the objectives of modelling itself. This paper presents the use of Simulink, a MATLAB toolbox software that is widely used in control engineering, as a modelling platform for the study of nuclear processes including nuclear reactor behaviours. Starting from the describing equations, Simulink models for heat transfer, radionuclide decay process, delayed neutrons effect, reactor point kinetic equations with delayed neutron groups, and the effect of temperature feedback are used as examples

  7. Ecological Niche Modeling of Risk Factors for H7N9 Human Infection in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Xu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available China was attacked by a serious influenza A (H7N9 virus in 2013. The first human infection case was confirmed in Shanghai City and soon spread across most of eastern China. Using the methods of Geographic Information Systems (GIS and ecological niche modeling (ENM, this research quantitatively analyzed the relationships between the H7N9 occurrence and the main environmental factors, including meteorological variables, human population density, bird migratory routes, wetland distribution, and live poultry farms, markets, and processing factories. Based on these relationships the probability of the presence of H7N9 was predicted. Results indicated that the distribution of live poultry processing factories, farms, and human population density were the top three most important determinants of the H7N9 human infection. The relative contributions to the model of live poultry processing factories, farms and human population density were 39.9%, 17.7% and 17.7%, respectively, while the maximum temperature of the warmest month and mean relative humidity had nearly no contribution to the model. The paper has developed an ecological niche model (ENM that predicts the spatial distribution of H7N9 cases in China using environmental variables. The area under the curve (AUC values of the model were greater than 0.9 (0.992 for the training samples and 0.961 for the test data. The findings indicated that most of the high risk areas were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta. These findings have important significance for the Chinese government to enhance the environmental surveillance at multiple human poultry interfaces in the high risk area.

  8. Violent Victimization and Perpetration during Adolescence: Developmental Stage Dependent Ecological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matjasko, Jennifer L.; Needham, Belinda L.; Grunden, Leslie N.; Farb, Amy Feldman

    2010-01-01

    Using a variant of the ecological-transactional model and developmental theories of delinquency on a nationally representative sample of adolescents, the current study explored the ecological predictors of violent victimization, perpetration, and both for three different developmental stages during adolescence. We examined the relative influence…

  9. Informative-Consulting Model for Ecological Estimation of Influence of NPP on Surrounding Environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlasenko, N.I.; Vlasova, E.V.; Korotenko, M.N.; Pyshnaya, D.V.

    2006-01-01

    In the NAEK 'Energoatom' the development of informative-consulting model (ICM) for ecological estimation of influence of NPP on surrounding an environment has began. In ICM the use of modern program complexes is foreseen that will allow to analyses data of the radio ecological monitoring in the real-time mode and promote the validity of administrative decisions

  10. Multi-Attribute Modelling of Economic and Ecological Impacts of Cropping Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bohanec, M.; Dzeroski, S.; Znidarsic, M.; Messéan, A.; Scatasta, S.; Wesseler, J.H.H.

    2004-01-01

    Modelling of economic and ecological impacts of genetically modified crops is a demanding task. We present some preliminary attempts made for the purpose of the ECOGEN project "Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops". One of the goals of the project is to develop a

  11. Evolving Approaches and Technologies to Enhance the Role of Ecological Modeling in Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric Gustafson; John Nestler; Louis Gross; Keith M. Reynolds; Daniel Yaussy; Thomas P. Maxwell; Virginia H. Dale

    2002-01-01

    Understanding the effects of management activities is difficult for natural resource managers and decision makers because ecological systems are highly complex and their behavior is difficult to predict. Furthermore, the empirical studies necessary to illuminate all management questions quickly become logistically complicated and cost prohibitive. Ecological models...

  12. A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Domains of Applicability of Ecological Models and its Implementation in the Ecological Production Function Library

    Science.gov (United States)

    The use of computational ecological models to inform environmental management and policy has proliferated in the past 25 years. These models have become essential tools as linkages and feedbacks between human actions and ecological responses can be complex, and as funds for sampl...

  13. Two ecological models of academic achievement among diverse students with and without disabilities in transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Terrinieka T; McMahon, Susan D; Keys, Christopher B

    2014-01-01

    School experiences can have positive effects on student academic achievement, yet less is known about intermediary processes that contribute to these positive effects. We examined pathways between school experiences and academic achievement among 117 low-income urban students of color, many with disabilities, who transitioned to other schools following a school closure. Using structural equation modeling, we tested two ecological models that examined the relationships among self-reported school experiences, school support, academic self-efficacy, and school-reported academic achievement. The model in which the relationship between school experiences and academic achievement is mediated by both school support and academic self-efficacy, and that takes previous academic achievement into account, was an excellent fit with the data. The roles of contextual and individual factors as they relate to academic achievement, and the implications of these findings, are discussed.

  14. Can Microbial Ecology and Mycorrhizal Functioning Inform Climate Change Models?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hofmockel, Kirsten; Hobbie, Erik

    2017-07-31

    Our funded research focused on soil organic matter dynamics and plant-microbe interactions by examining the role of belowground processes and mechanisms across scales, including decomposition of organic molecules, microbial interactions, and plant-microbe interactions associated with a changing climate. Research foci included mycorrhizal mediated priming of soil carbon turnover, organic N use and depolymerization by free-living microbes and mycorrhizal fungi, and the use of isotopes as additional constraints for improved modeling of belowground processes. This work complemented the DOE’s mandate to understand both the consequences of atmospheric and climatic change for key ecosystems and the feedbacks on C cycling.

  15. Linking Bayesian and agent-based models to simulate complex social-ecological systems in semi-arid regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aloah J Pope

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Interdependencies of ecologic, hydrologic, and social systems challenge traditional approaches to natural resource management in semi-arid regions. As a complex social-ecological system, water demands in the Sonoran Desert from agricultural and urban users often conflicts with water needs for its ecologically-significant riparian corridors. To explore this system, we developed an agent-based model to simulate complex feedbacks between human decisions and environmental conditions in the Rio Sonora Watershed. Cognitive mapping in conjunction with stakeholder participation produced a Bayesian model of conditional probabilities of local human decision-making processes resulting to changes in water demand. Probabilities created in the Bayesian model were incorporated into the agent-based model, so that each agent had a unique probability to make a positive decision based on its perceived environment at each point in time and space. By using a Bayesian approach, uncertainty in the human decision-making process could be incorporated. The spatially-explicit agent-based model simulated changes in depth-to-groundwater by well pumping based on an agent’s water demand. Changes in depth-to-groundwater feedback to influence agent behavior, as well as determine unique vegetation classes within the riparian corridor. Each vegetation class then provides varying stakeholder-defined quality values of ecosystem services. Using this modeling approach allowed us to examine effects on both the ecological and social system of semi-arid riparian corridors under various scenarios. The insight provided by the model contributes to understanding how specific interventions may alter the complex social-ecological system in the future.

  16. modeling grinding modeling grinding processes as micro processes

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    industrial precision grinding processes are cylindrical, center less and ... Several model shave been proposed and used to study grinding ..... grinding force for the two cases were 9.07237N/mm ..... International Journal of Machine Tools &.

  17. A Sense of Place: Integrating Environmental Psychology into Marine Socio-Ecological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Putten, I. E.; Fleming, A.; Fulton, E.; Plaganyi-Lloyd, E.

    2016-02-01

    Sense of place is a concept that is increasingly applied in different social research contexts where it can act as a bridge between disciplines that might otherwise work in parallel. A sense of place is a well established and flexible concept that has been empirically measured using different survey methods. The psychological principals and theories that underpin sense of place have been inextricably linked to the quality of ecological systems and the impact on development of the system, and vice versa. Ecological models and scenario analyses play an important role in characterising, assessing and predicting the potential impacts of alternative developments and other changes affecting ecological systems. To improve the predictive accuracy of ecological models, human drivers, interactions, and uses have been dynamically incorporated, for instance, through management strategy evaluation applied to marine ecosystem models. However, to date no socio-ecological models (whether terrestrial or marine) have been developed that incorporate a dynamic feedback between ecosystem characteristics and peoples' sense of place. These models thus essentially ignore the influence of environmental psychology on the way people use and interact with ecosystems. We develop a proof of concept and provide a mathematical basis for a Sense of Place Index (SoPI) that allows the quantitative integration of environmental psychology into socio-ecological models. Incorporating dynamic feedback between the SoPI for different resource user groups and the ecological system improves the accuracy and precision of predictions regarding future resource use as well as, ultimately, the potential state of the resource to be developed.

  18. Multi-enzyme Process Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andrade Santacoloma, Paloma de Gracia

    are affected (in a positive or negative way) by the presence of the other enzymes and compounds in the media. In this thesis the concept of multi-enzyme in-pot term is adopted for processes that are carried out by the combination of enzymes in a single reactor and implemented at pilot or industrial scale...... features of the process and provides the information required to structure the process model by using a step-by-step procedure with the required tools and methods. In this way, this framework increases efficiency of the model development process with respect to time and resources needed (fast and effective....... In this way the model parameters that drives the main dynamic behavior can be identified and thus a better understanding of this type of processes. In order to develop, test and verify the methodology, three case studies were selected, specifically the bi-enzyme process for the production of lactobionic acid...

  19. Sato Processes in Default Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokholm, Thomas; Nicolato, Elisa

    -change of a homogeneous Levy process. While the processes in these two classes share the same average behavior over time, the associated intensities exhibit very different properties. Concrete specifications are calibrated to data on the single names included in the iTraxx Europe index. The performances are compared......In reduced form default models, the instantaneous default intensity is classically the modeling object. Survival probabilities are then given by the Laplace transform of the cumulative hazard defined as the integrated intensity process. Instead, recent literature has shown a tendency towards...... specifying the cumulative hazard process directly. Within this framework we present a new model class where cumulative hazards are described by self-similar additive processes, also known as Sato processes. Furthermore we also analyze specifications obtained via a simple deterministic time...

  20. Framework for analyzing ecological trait-based models in multidimensional niche spaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancalani, Tommaso; DeVille, Lee; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2015-05-01

    We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing ecological models with a multidimensional niche space. Our approach relies on the fact that ecological niches are described by sequences of symbols, which allows us to include multiple phenotypic traits. Ecological drivers, such as competitive exclusion, are modeled by introducing the Hamming distance between two sequences. We show that a suitable transform diagonalizes the community interaction matrix of these models, making it possible to predict the conditions for niche differentiation and, close to the instability onset, the asymptotically long time population distributions of niches. We exemplify our method using the Lotka-Volterra equations with an exponential competition kernel.

  1. System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

    2015-09-15

    With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Geospatial Assessment of Forest Fragmentation and its Implications for Ecological Processes in Tropical Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adepoju Kayode Adewale

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The study assessed the patterns of spatio-temporal configuration imposed on a forest landscape in Southwestern Nigeria due to fragmentation for the period 1986 – 2010 in order to understand the relationship between landscape patterns and the ecological processes influencing the distribution of species in tropical forest environment. Time-series Landsat TM and ETM satellite images and forest inventory data were pre-processed and classified into four landuse/landcover categories using maximum likelihood classification algorithm. Fragstats software was used for the computation of seven landscape and six class level metrics to provide indicators of fragmentation and landscape connectivity from the classified images.

  3. Modelling a Learning Journey towards Teacher Ecological Self

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raus, Rea

    2016-01-01

    The article discusses the notion of the ecological self as a key concept for teacher identity construction during teacher education in the context of sustainable development (SD). Substantial amount of literature supports the understanding that the solution to the global sustainability crisis lies in the field of education where teacher identity,…

  4. Ammonia-oxidizing bacteria: A model for molecular microbial ecology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kowalchuk, G.A.; Stephen, J.R.

    2001-01-01

    The eutrophication of many ecosystems in recent decades has led to an increased interest in the ecology of nitrogen transformation. Chemolitho-autotrophic ammonia-oxidizing bacteria are responsible for the rate-limiting step of nitrification in a wide variety of environments, making them important

  5. The use of particle packing models to design ecological concrete

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fennis, S.A.A.M.; Walraven, J.C.; Den Uijl, J.A.

    2009-01-01

    Ecological concrete can be designed by replacing cement with fillers. With low amounts of cement it becomes increasingly important to control the water demand of concrete mixtures. In this paper a cyclic design method based on particle packing is presented and evaluated on the basis of experiments

  6. A modelling framework for improving plant establishment during ecological restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plants seeded during ecological restoration projects often perish en masse, and researchers are currently searching for traits promoting increased survival. In this study of a big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) ecosystem, we found survivorship rankings of seeded grass species varied across 3...

  7. Ecological monitoring in a discrete-time prey-predator model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gámez, M; López, I; Rodríguez, C; Varga, Z; Garay, J

    2017-09-21

    The paper is aimed at the methodological development of ecological monitoring in discrete-time dynamic models. In earlier papers, in the framework of continuous-time models, we have shown how a systems-theoretical methodology can be applied to the monitoring of the state process of a system of interacting populations, also estimating certain abiotic environmental changes such as pollution, climatic or seasonal changes. In practice, however, there may be good reasons to use discrete-time models. (For instance, there may be discrete cycles in the development of the populations, or observations can be made only at discrete time steps.) Therefore the present paper is devoted to the development of the monitoring methodology in the framework of discrete-time models of population ecology. By monitoring we mean that, observing only certain component(s) of the system, we reconstruct the whole state process. This may be necessary, e.g., when in a complex ecosystem the observation of the densities of certain species is impossible, or too expensive. For the first presentation of the offered methodology, we have chosen a discrete-time version of the classical Lotka-Volterra prey-predator model. This is a minimal but not trivial system where the methodology can still be presented. We also show how this methodology can be applied to estimate the effect of an abiotic environmental change, using a component of the population system as an environmental indicator. Although this approach is illustrated in a simplest possible case, it can be easily extended to larger ecosystems with several interacting populations and different types of abiotic environmental effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Markov Decision Process Measurement Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaMar, Michelle M

    2018-03-01

    Within-task actions can provide additional information on student competencies but are challenging to model. This paper explores the potential of using a cognitive model for decision making, the Markov decision process, to provide a mapping between within-task actions and latent traits of interest. Psychometric properties of the model are explored, and simulation studies report on parameter recovery within the context of a simple strategy game. The model is then applied to empirical data from an educational game. Estimates from the model are found to correlate more strongly with posttest results than a partial-credit IRT model based on outcome data alone.

  9. Social Models: Blueprints or Processes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Graham R.

    1981-01-01

    Discusses the nature and implications of two different models for societal planning: (1) the problem-solving process approach based on Karl Popper; and (2) the goal-setting "blueprint" approach based on Karl Marx. (DC)

  10. Simple Models for Process Control

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gorez, R.; Klán, Petr

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 2 (2011), s. 58-62 ISSN 0929-2268 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : process model s * PID control * second order dynamics Subject RIV: JB - Sensors, Measurment, Regulation

  11. A coupled geomorphic and ecological model of tidal marsh evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L; Murray, A Brad

    2007-04-10

    The evolution of tidal marsh platforms and interwoven channel networks cannot be addressed without treating the two-way interactions that link biological and physical processes. We have developed a 3D model of tidal marsh accretion and channel network development that couples physical sediment transport processes with vegetation biomass productivity. Tidal flow tends to cause erosion, whereas vegetation biomass, a function of bed surface depth below high tide, influences the rate of sediment deposition and slope-driven transport processes such as creek bank slumping. With a steady, moderate rise in sea level, the model builds a marsh platform and channel network with accretion rates everywhere equal to the rate of sea-level rise, meaning water depths and biological productivity remain temporally constant. An increase in the rate of sea-level rise, or a reduction in sediment supply, causes marsh-surface depths, biomass productivity, and deposition rates to increase while simultaneously causing the channel network to expand. Vegetation on the marsh platform can promote a metastable equilibrium where the platform maintains elevation relative to a rapidly rising sea level, although disturbance to vegetation could cause irreversible loss of marsh habitat.

  12. Model feedstock supply processing plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Bautin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The model of raw providing the processing enterprises entering into vertically integrated structure on production and processing of dairy raw materials, differing by an orientation on achievement of cumulative effect by the integrated structure acting as criterion function which maximizing is reached by optimization of capacities, volumes of deliveries of raw materials and its qualitative characteristics, costs of industrial processing of raw materials and demand for dairy production is developed.

  13. Of Models and Meanings: Cultural Resilience in Social-Ecological Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd A. Crane

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Modeling has emerged as a key technology in analysis of social-ecological systems. However, the tendency for modeling to focus on the mechanistic materiality of biophysical systems obscures the diversity of performative social behaviors and normative cultural positions of actors within the modeled system. The fact that changes in the biophysical system can be culturally constructed in different ways means that the perception and pursuit of adaptive pathways can be highly variable. Furthermore, the adoption of biophysically resilient livelihoods can occur under conditions that are subjectively experienced as the radical transformation of cultural systems. The objectives of this work are to: (1 highlight the importance of understanding the place of culture within social-ecological systems, (2 explore the tensions between empirical and normative positions in the analysis of social-ecological resilience, and (3 suggest how empirical modeling of social-ecological systems can synergistically interact with normative aspects of livelihoods and lifeways.

  14. Nonparametric Bayesian models through probit stick-breaking processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Abel; Dunson, David B

    2011-03-01

    We describe a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric priors based on stick-breaking constructions where the weights of the process are constructed as probit transformations of normal random variables. We show that these priors are extremely flexible, allowing us to generate a great variety of models while preserving computational simplicity. Particular emphasis is placed on the construction of rich temporal and spatial processes, which are applied to two problems in finance and ecology.

  15. Military service member and veteran reintegration: A critical review and adapted ecological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elnitsky, Christine A; Blevins, Cara L; Fisher, Michael P; Magruder, Kathryn

    2017-01-01

    Returning military service members and veterans (MSMVs) experience a wide range of stress-related disorders in addition to social and occupational difficulties when reintegrating to the community. Facilitating reintegration of MSMVs following deployment is a societal priority. With an objective of identifying challenges and facilitators for reintegration of MSMVs of the current war era, we critically review and identify gaps in the literature. We searched 8 electronic databases and identified 1,764 articles. Screening of abstracts and full-text review based on our inclusion/exclusion criteria, yielded 186 articles for review. Two investigators evaluating relevant articles independently found a lack of clear definition or comprehensive theorizing about MSMV reintegration. To address these gaps, we linked the findings from the literature to provide a unified definition of reintegration and adapted the social ecological systems theory to guide research and practice aimed at MSMV reintegration. Furthermore, we identified individual, interpersonal, community, and societal challenges related to reintegration. The 186 studies published from 2001 (the start of the current war era) to 2015 included 6 experimental studies or clinical trials. Most studies do not adequately account for context or more than a narrow set of potential influences on MSMV reintegration. Little evidence was found that evaluated interventions for health conditions, rehabilitation, and employment, or effective models of integrated delivery systems. We recommend an ecological model of MSMV reintegration to advance research and practice processes and outcomes at 4 levels (individual, interpersonal, organizational, and societal). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Sato Processes in Default Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokholm, Thomas; Nicolato, Elisa

    2010-01-01

    In reduced form default models, the instantaneous default intensity is the classical modeling object. Survival probabilities are then given by the Laplace transform of the cumulative hazard defined as the integrated intensity process. Instead, recent literature tends to specify the cumulative haz...

  17. Sato Processes in Default Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokholm, Thomas; Nicolato, Elisa

    In reduced form default models, the instantaneous default intensity is classically the modeling object. Survival probabilities are then given by the Laplace transform of the cumulative hazard defined as the integrated intensity process. Instead, recent literature has shown a tendency towards...

  18. Metrics for Business Process Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendling, Jan

    Up until now, there has been little research on why people introduce errors in real-world business process models. In a more general context, Simon [404] points to the limitations of cognitive capabilities and concludes that humans act rationally only to a certain extent. Concerning modeling errors, this argument would imply that human modelers lose track of the interrelations of large and complex models due to their limited cognitive capabilities and introduce errors that they would not insert in a small model. A recent study by Mendling et al. [275] explores in how far certain complexity metrics of business process models have the potential to serve as error determinants. The authors conclude that complexity indeed appears to have an impact on error probability. Before we can test such a hypothesis in a more general setting, we have to establish an understanding of how we can define determinants that drive error probability and how we can measure them.

  19. Evaluation and comparison of models and modelling tools simulating nitrogen processes in treatment wetlands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edelfeldt, Stina; Fritzson, Peter

    2008-01-01

    with Modelica 2.1 (Wiley-IEEE Press, USA, 2004).] and an associated tool. The differences and similarities between the MathModelica Model Editor and three other ecological modelling tools have also been evaluated. The results show that the models can well be modelled and simulated in the MathModelica Model...... Editor, and that nitrogen decrease in a constructed treatment wetland should be described and simulated using the Nitrification/Denitrification model as this model has the highest overall quality score and provides a more variable environment.......In this paper, two ecological models of nitrogen processes in treatment wetlands have been evaluated and compared. These models were implemented, simulated, and visualized using the Modelica modelling and simulation language [P. Fritzson, Principles of Object-Oriented Modelling and Simulation...

  20. Modelling Hospital Materials Management Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Iannone

    2013-06-01

    integrated and detailed analysis and description model for hospital materials management data and tasks, which is able to tackle information from patient requirements to usage, from replenishment requests to supplying and handling activities. The model takes account of medical risk reduction, traceability and streamlined processes perspectives. Second, the paper translates this information into a business process model and mathematical formalization.The study provides a useful guide to the various relevant technology‐related, management and business issues, laying the foundations of an efficient reengineering of the supply chain to reduce healthcare costs and improve the quality of care.

  1. Declarative modeling for process supervision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leyval, L.

    1989-01-01

    Our work is a contribution to computer aided supervision of continuous processes. It is inspired by an area of Artificial Intelligence: qualitative physics. Here, supervision is based on a model which continuously provides operators with a synthetic view of the process; but this model is founded on general principles of control theory rather than on physics. It involves concepts such as high gain or small time response. It helps in linking temporally the evolution of various variables. Moreover, the model provides predictions of the future behaviour of the process, which allows action advice and alarm filtering. This should greatly reduce the famous cognitive overload associated to any complex and dangerous evolution of the process

  2. A parametric interpretation of Bayesian Nonparametric Inference from Gene Genealogies: Linking ecological, population genetics and evolutionary processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponciano, José Miguel

    2017-11-22

    Using a nonparametric Bayesian approach Palacios and Minin (2013) dramatically improved the accuracy, precision of Bayesian inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies. These authors proposed an extension of a Gaussian Process (GP) nonparametric inferential method for the intensity function of non-homogeneous Poisson processes. They found that not only the statistical properties of the estimators were improved with their method, but also, that key aspects of the demographic histories were recovered. The authors' work represents the first Bayesian nonparametric solution to this inferential problem because they specify a convenient prior belief without a particular functional form on the population trajectory. Their approach works so well and provides such a profound understanding of the biological process, that the question arises as to how truly "biology-free" their approach really is. Using well-known concepts of stochastic population dynamics, here I demonstrate that in fact, Palacios and Minin's GP model can be cast as a parametric population growth model with density dependence and environmental stochasticity. Making this link between population genetics and stochastic population dynamics modeling provides novel insights into eliciting biologically meaningful priors for the trajectory of the effective population size. The results presented here also bring novel understanding of GP as models for the evolution of a trait. Thus, the ecological principles foundation of Palacios and Minin (2013)'s prior adds to the conceptual and scientific value of these authors' inferential approach. I conclude this note by listing a series of insights brought about by this connection with Ecology. Copyright © 2017 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Ecological-economic modeling for biodiversity management: potential, pitfalls, and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wätzold, F.; Drechsler, M.; Armstrong, C.W.; Baumgärtner, S.; Grimm, V.; Huth, A.; Perrings, C.; Possingham, H.P.; Shogren, J.F.; Skonhoft, A.; Verboom-Vasiljev, J.; Wissel, C.

    2006-01-01

    Ecologists and economists both use models to help develop strategies for biodiversity management. The practical use of disciplinary models, however, can be limited because ecological models tend not to address the socioeconomic dimension of biodiversity management, whereas economic models tend to

  4. A spatially explicit hydro-ecological modeling framework (BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0): Model description and test in a boreal ecosystem in Eastern North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Margolis, Hank; Ju, Weimin; Sonnentag, Oliver; Giasson, Marc-André

    2009-04-01

    SummaryA spatially explicit, process-based hydro-ecological model, BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0, was developed to improve the representation of ecophysiological, hydro-ecological and biogeochemical processes of boreal ecosystems in a tightly coupled manner. Several processes unique to boreal ecosystems were implemented including the sub-surface lateral water fluxes, stratification of vegetation into distinct layers for explicit ecophysiological representation, inclusion of novel spatial upscaling strategies and biogeochemical processes. To account for preferential water fluxes common in humid boreal ecosystems, a novel scheme was introduced based on laboratory analyses. Leaf-scale ecophysiological processes were upscaled to canopy-scale by explicitly considering leaf physiological conditions as affected by light and water stress. The modified model was tested with 2 years of continuous measurements taken at the Eastern Old Black Spruce Site of the Fluxnet-Canada Research Network located in a humid boreal watershed in eastern Canada. Comparison of the simulated and measured ET, water-table depth (WTD), volumetric soil water content (VSWC) and gross primary productivity (GPP) revealed that BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0 simulates hydro-ecological processes with reasonable accuracy. The model was able to explain 83% of the ET, 92% of the GPP variability and 72% of the WTD dynamics. The model suggests that in humid ecosystems such as eastern North American boreal watersheds, topographically driven sub-surface baseflow is the main mechanism of soil water partitioning which significantly affects the local-scale hydrological conditions.

  5. Modeling of biopharmaceutical processes. Part 2: Process chromatography unit operation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaltenbrunner, Oliver; McCue, Justin; Engel, Philip

    2008-01-01

    Process modeling can be a useful tool to aid in process development, process optimization, and process scale-up. When modeling a chromatography process, one must first select the appropriate models that describe the mass transfer and adsorption that occurs within the porous adsorbent. The theoret......Process modeling can be a useful tool to aid in process development, process optimization, and process scale-up. When modeling a chromatography process, one must first select the appropriate models that describe the mass transfer and adsorption that occurs within the porous adsorbent...

  6. Biosemiotics and ecological monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruni, Luis Emilio

    2001-01-01

    of the qualitative and relational aspects that can only be grasped by considering the semiotic networks operative in complex ecological and cultural systems. In this paper, it is suggested that a biosemiotic approach to ecology may prove useful for the modelling process, which in turn will allow the construction...... of meaningful monitoring systems. It is also contended that a biosemiotic approach may also serve to better integrate our understanding and monitoring of ecosystems into the cultural process of searching for (human) sustainability....

  7. Ecological Niche Modelling of the Bacillus anthracis A1.a sub-lineage in Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a globally distributed zoonotic pathogen that continues to be a veterinary and human health problem in Central Asia. We used a database of anthrax outbreak locations in Kazakhstan and a subset of genotyped isolates to model the geographic distribution and ecological associations of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The aims of the study were to test the influence of soil variables on a previous ecological niche based prediction of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan and to determine if a single sub-lineage of B. anthracis occupies a unique ecological niche. Results The addition of soil variables to the previously developed ecological niche model did not appreciably alter the limits of the predicted geographic or ecological distribution of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The A1.a experiment predicted the sub-lineage to be present over a larger geographic area than did the outbreak based experiment containing multiple lineages. Within the geographic area predicted to be suitable for B. anthracis by all ten best subset models, the A1.a sub-lineage was associated with a wider range of ecological tolerances than the outbreak-soil experiment. Analysis of rule types showed that logit rules predominate in the outbreak-soil experiment and range rules in the A1.a sub-lineage experiment. Random sub-setting of locality points suggests that models of B. anthracis distribution may be sensitive to sample size. Conclusions Our analysis supports careful consideration of the taxonomic resolution of data used to create ecological niche models. Further investigations into the environmental affinities of individual lineages and sub-lineages of B. anthracis will be useful in understanding the ecology of the disease at large and small scales. With model based predictions serving as approximations of disease risk, these efforts will improve the efficacy of public health interventions for anthrax prevention and control. PMID:22152056

  8. Ecological and economic interests in design process of thermal power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sander, M.

    1996-01-01

    In design process of thermal power plant various ecological and economic contradictory interests are brought in focus. Requests on environmental protection written in laws, standards and international treaties are increasing investment costs and energy production costs. In a design phase there is a task to reconcile these contradictory requests. The paper presents relationship between technology and environmental protection with a focus on air pollution. Air pollution and human health is considered taking in account the role of design phase in thermal power plants project and human health problems. International laws and standards are presented with moral dilemmas concerning low investment costs and high environmental standards. (author)

  9. An ecological perspective of Listeria monocytogenes biofilms in food processing facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valderrama, Wladir B; Cutter, Catherine N

    2013-01-01

    Listeria monocytogenes can enter the food chain at virtually any point. However, food processing environments seem to be of particular importance. From an ecological point of view, food processing facilities are microbial habitats that are constantly disturbed by cleaning and sanitizing procedures. Although L. monocytogenes is considered ubiquitous in nature, it is important to recognize that not all L. monocytogenes strains appear to be equally distributed; the distribution of the organism seems to be related to certain habitats. Currently, no direct evidence exists that L. monocytogenes-associated biofilms have played a role in food contamination or foodborne outbreaks, likely because biofilm isolation and identification are not part of an outbreak investigation, or the definition of biofilm is unclear. Because L. monocytogenes is known to colonize surfaces, we suggest that contamination patterns may be studied in the context of how biofilm formation is influenced by the environment within food processing facilities. In this review, direct and indirect epidemiological and phenotypic evidence of lineage-related biofilm formation capacity to specific ecological niches will be discussed. A critical view on the development of the biofilm concept, focused on the practical implications, strengths, and weaknesses of the current definitions also is discussed. The idea that biofilm formation may be an alternative surrogate for microbial fitness is proposed. Furthermore, current research on the influence of environmental factors on biofilm formation is discussed.

  10. Neuroscientific Model of Motivational Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sung-il

    2013-01-01

    Considering the neuroscientific findings on reward, learning, value, decision-making, and cognitive control, motivation can be parsed into three sub processes, a process of generating motivation, a process of maintaining motivation, and a process of regulating motivation. I propose a tentative neuroscientific model of motivational processes which consists of three distinct but continuous sub processes, namely reward-driven approach, value-based decision-making, and goal-directed control. Reward-driven approach is the process in which motivation is generated by reward anticipation and selective approach behaviors toward reward. This process recruits the ventral striatum (reward area) in which basic stimulus-action association is formed, and is classified as an automatic motivation to which relatively less attention is assigned. By contrast, value-based decision-making is the process of evaluating various outcomes of actions, learning through positive prediction error, and calculating the value continuously. The striatum and the orbitofrontal cortex (valuation area) play crucial roles in sustaining motivation. Lastly, the goal-directed control is the process of regulating motivation through cognitive control to achieve goals. This consciously controlled motivation is associated with higher-level cognitive functions such as planning, retaining the goal, monitoring the performance, and regulating action. The anterior cingulate cortex (attention area) and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (cognitive control area) are the main neural circuits related to regulation of motivation. These three sub processes interact with each other by sending reward prediction error signals through dopaminergic pathway from the striatum and to the prefrontal cortex. The neuroscientific model of motivational process suggests several educational implications with regard to the generation, maintenance, and regulation of motivation to learn in the learning environment. PMID:23459598

  11. Neuroscientific model of motivational process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sung-Il

    2013-01-01

    Considering the neuroscientific findings on reward, learning, value, decision-making, and cognitive control, motivation can be parsed into three sub processes, a process of generating motivation, a process of maintaining motivation, and a process of regulating motivation. I propose a tentative neuroscientific model of motivational processes which consists of three distinct but continuous sub processes, namely reward-driven approach, value-based decision-making, and goal-directed control. Reward-driven approach is the process in which motivation is generated by reward anticipation and selective approach behaviors toward reward. This process recruits the ventral striatum (reward area) in which basic stimulus-action association is formed, and is classified as an automatic motivation to which relatively less attention is assigned. By contrast, value-based decision-making is the process of evaluating various outcomes of actions, learning through positive prediction error, and calculating the value continuously. The striatum and the orbitofrontal cortex (valuation area) play crucial roles in sustaining motivation. Lastly, the goal-directed control is the process of regulating motivation through cognitive control to achieve goals. This consciously controlled motivation is associated with higher-level cognitive functions such as planning, retaining the goal, monitoring the performance, and regulating action. The anterior cingulate cortex (attention area) and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (cognitive control area) are the main neural circuits related to regulation of motivation. These three sub processes interact with each other by sending reward prediction error signals through dopaminergic pathway from the striatum and to the prefrontal cortex. The neuroscientific model of motivational process suggests several educational implications with regard to the generation, maintenance, and regulation of motivation to learn in the learning environment.

  12. Integrated conceptual ecological model and habitat indices for the southwest Florida coastal wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingard, G. Lynn; Lorenz, J. L.

    2014-01-01

    The coastal wetlands of southwest Florida that extend from Charlotte Harbor south to Cape Sable, contain more than 60,000 ha of mangroves and 22,177 ha of salt marsh. These coastal wetlands form a transition zone between the freshwater and marine environments of the South Florida Coastal Marine Ecosystem (SFCME). The coastal wetlands provide diverse ecosystem services that are valued by society and thus are important to the economy of the state. Species from throughout the region spend part of their life cycle in the coastal wetlands, including many marine and coastal-dependent species, making this zone critical to the ecosystem health of the Everglades and the SFCME. However, the coastal wetlands are increasingly vulnerable due to rising sea level, changes in storm intensity and frequency, land use, and water management practices. They are at the boundary of the region covered by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), and thus are impacted by both CERP and marine resource management decisions. An integrated conceptual ecological model (ICEM) for the southwest coastal wetlands of Florida was developed that illustrates the linkages between drivers, pressures, ecological process, and ecosystem services. Five ecological indicators are presented: (1) mangrove community structure and spatial extent; (2) waterbirds; (3) prey-base fish and macroinvertebrates; (4) crocodilians; and (5) periphyton. Most of these indicators are already used in other areas of south Florida and the SFCME, and therefore will allow metrics from the coastal wetlands to be used in system-wide assessments that incorporate the entire Greater Everglades Ecosystem.

  13. ECONOMIC MODELING PROCESSES USING MATLAB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamaria G. MACOVEI

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available To study economic phenomena and processes using mathem atical modeling, and to determine the approximatesolution to a problem we need to choose a method of calculation and a numerical computer program, namely thepackage of programs MatLab. Any economic process or phenomenon is a mathematical description of h is behavior,and thus draw up an economic and mathematical model that has the following stages: formulation of the problem, theanalysis process modeling, the production model and design verification, validation and implementation of the model.This article is presented an economic model and its modeling is using mathematical equations and software packageMatLab, which helps us approximation effective solution. As data entry is considered the net cost, the cost of direct andtotal cost and the link between them. I presented the basic formula for determining the total cost. Economic modelcalculations were made in MatLab software package and with graphic representation of its interpretation of the resultsachieved in terms of our specific problem.

  14. Path modeling and process control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høskuldsson, Agnar; Rodionova, O.; Pomerantsev, A.

    2007-01-01

    and having three or more stages. The methods are applied to a process control of a multi-stage production process having 25 variables and one output variable. When moving along the process, variables change their roles. It is shown how the methods of path modeling can be applied to estimate variables...... be performed regarding the foreseeable output property y, and with respect to an admissible range of correcting actions for the parameters of the next stage. In this paper the basic principles of path modeling is presented. The mathematics is presented for processes having only one stage, having two stages...... of the next stage with the purpose of obtaining optimal or almost optimal quality of the output variable. An important aspect of the methods presented is the possibility of extensive graphic analysis of data that can provide the engineer with a detailed view of the multi-variate variation in data....

  15. The Importance of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-based Models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems with Particular Emphasis on Forest Ecosystems — Selected Papers from a Workshop Organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) at the Third Biennal Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS) in Burlington, Vermont, USA, August 9-13, 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Liu, Jinxun; Ascough, James C.; Gordon, Andrew M.

    2008-01-01

    Many process-based models of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for terrestrial ecosystems, including forest ecosystems. They address many basic issues of ecosystems structure and functioning, such as the role of internal feedback in ecosystem dynamics. The critical factor in these phenomena is scale, as these processes operate at scales from the minute (e.g. particulate pollution impacts on trees and other organisms) to the global (e.g. climate change). Research efforts remain important to improve the capability of such models to better represent the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems, including the C, nutrient, (e.g. N) and water cycles. Existing models are sufficiently well advanced to help decision makers develop sustainable management policies and planning of terrestrial ecosystems, as they make realistic predictions when used appropriately. However, decision makers must be aware of their limitations by having the opportunity to evaluate the uncertainty associated with process-based models (Smith and Heath, 2001 and Allen et al., 2004). The variation in scale of issues currently being addressed by modelling efforts makes the evaluation of uncertainty a daunting task.

  16. TECHNOLOGICAL PROCESS MODELING AIMING TO IMPROVE ITS OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Mihajlović

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the modeling procedure of one real technological system. In this study, thecopper extraction from the copper flotation waste generated at the Bor Copper Mine (Serbia, werethe object of modeling. Sufficient data base for statistical modeling was constructed using theorthogonal factorial design of the experiments. Mathematical model of investigated system wasdeveloped using the combination of linear and multiple linear statistical analysis approach. Thepurpose of such a model is obtaining optimal states of the system that enable efficient operationsmanagement. Besides technological and economical, ecological parameters of the process wereconsidered as crucial input variables.

  17. Model of evolution of radioactive waste repositories and their influence on the resource-ecological safety of an adjoining territories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angelova, R.; Sandul, G.A.; Sen'ko, T.Ya.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper it is considered the mathematical model of evolution of radioactive waste (RAW) repositories and their influence on the resource-ecological safety (RES) and sustainable development of an adjoining territories. Heart of considered model consists of that RAW repository is considered as a system with two processes proceeding in parallel: deterioration of repository buildings, equipment etc. enlarging resource-ecological danger (RED) on account of probability increase (risk increase) of emergency conditions; natural decay of RAW being in repository that lead to RED decrease. Considered model allows to learn RAW repositories evolution in given time interval and to analyze their behavior at its different stages depending on state of repositories, e.g., their modernization or other events as well as to define periods of RAW repositories peak danger for environment

  18. Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merow, Cory; Dahlgren, Johan; Metcall, C. Jessica E.

    2014-01-01

    (e.g., environment). By combining regressions of vital rates, an IPM provides mechanistic insight into emergent ecological patterns such as population dynamics, species geographic distributions, or life history strategies. Here, we review important resources for building IPMs and provide...... a comprehensive guide, with extensive R code, for their construction. IPMs can be applied to any stage-structured population; here we illustrate IPMs for a series of plant life histories of increasing complexity and biological realism, highlighting the utility of various regression methods for capturing...

  19. Ecological niche models reveal the importance of climate variability for the biogeography of protosteloid amoebae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, María; Lado, Carlos

    2012-08-01

    Habitat availability and environmental preferences of species are among the most important factors in determining the success of dispersal processes and therefore in shaping the distribution of protists. We explored the differences in fundamental niches and potential distributions of an ecological guild of slime moulds-protosteloid amoebae-in the Iberian Peninsula. A large set of samples collected in a north-east to south-west transect of approximately 1000 km along the peninsula was used to test the hypothesis that, together with the existence of suitable microhabitats, climate conditions may determine the probability of survival of species. Although protosteloid amoebae share similar morphologies and life history strategies, canonical correspondence analyses showed that they have varied ecological optima, and that climate conditions have an important effect in niche differentiation. Maxent environmental niche models provided consistent predictions of the probability of presence of the species based on climate data, and they were used to generate maps of potential distribution in an 'everything is everywhere' scenario. The most important climatic factors were, in both analyses, variables that measure changes in conditions throughout the year, confirming that the alternation of fruiting bodies, cysts and amoeboid stages in the life cycles of protosteloid amoebae constitutes an advantage for surviving in a changing environment. Microhabitat affinity seems to be influenced by climatic conditions, which suggests that the micro-environment may vary at a local scale and change together with the external climate at a larger scale.

  20. Process Models for Security Architectures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Floarea NASTASE

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model for an integrated security system, which can be implemented in any organization. It is based on security-specific standards and taxonomies as ISO 7498-2 and Common Criteria. The functionalities are derived from the classes proposed in the Common Criteria document. In the paper we present the process model for each functionality and also we focus on the specific components.

  1. Potential application of population models in the European ecological risk assessment of chemicals. II. Review of models and their potential to address environmental protection aims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galic, Nika; Hommen, Udo; Baveco, J M Hans; van den Brink, Paul J

    2010-07-01

    Whereas current chemical risk assessment (RA) schemes within the European Union (EU) focus mainly on toxicity and bioaccumulation of chemicals in individual organisms, most protection goals aim at preserving populations of nontarget organisms rather than individuals. Ecological models are tools rarely recommended in official technical documents on RA of chemicals, but are widely used by researchers to assess risks to populations, communities and ecosystems. Their great advantage is the relatively straightforward integration of the sensitivity of species to chemicals, the mode of action and fate in the environment of toxicants, life-history traits of the species of concern, and landscape features. To promote the usage of ecological models in regulatory risk assessment, this study tries to establish whether existing, published ecological modeling studies have addressed or have the potential to address the protection aims and requirements of the chemical directives of the EU. We reviewed 148 publications, and evaluated and analyzed them in a database according to defined criteria. Published models were also classified in terms of 5 areas where their application would be most useful for chemical RA. All potential application areas are well represented in the published literature. Most models were developed to estimate population-level responses on the basis of individual effects, followed by recovery process assessment, both in individuals and at the level of metapopulations. We provide case studies for each of the proposed areas of ecological model application. The lack of clarity about protection goals in legislative documents made it impossible to establish a direct link between modeling studies and protection goals. Because most of the models reviewed here were not developed for regulatory risk assessment, there is great potential and a variety of ecological models in the published literature. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  2. Of Models and Meanings: Cultural Resilience in Social–Ecological Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crane, T.A.

    2010-01-01

    Modeling has emerged as a key technology in analysis of social–ecological systems. However, the tendency for modeling to focus on the mechanistic materiality of biophysical systems obscures the diversity of performative social behaviors and normative cultural positions of actors within the modeled

  3. Emerging ecological datasets with application for modeling North American dust emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, S.; Stauffer, N. G.; Garman, S.; Webb, N.

    2017-12-01

    In 2011 the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM) established the Assessment, Inventory and Monitoring (AIM) program to monitor the condition of BLM land and to provide data to support evidence-based management of multi-use public lands. The monitoring program shares core data collection methods with the Natural Resources Conservation Service's (NRCS) National Resources Inventory (NRI), implemented on private lands nationally. Combined, the two programs have sampled >30,000 locations since 2003 to provide vegetation composition, vegetation canopy height, the size distribution of inter-canopy gaps, soil texture and crusting information on rangelands and pasture lands across North America. The BLM implements AIM on more than 247.3 million acres of land across the western US, encompassing major dust source regions of the Chihuahuan, Sonoran, Mojave and Great Basin deserts, the Colorado Plateau, and potential high-latitude dust sources in Alaska. The AIM data are publicly available and can be used to support modeling of land surface and boundary-layer processes, including dust emission. While understanding US dust source regions and emission processes has been of national interest since the 1930s Dust Bowl, most attention has been directed to the croplands of the Great Plains and emission hot spots like Owens Lake, California. The magnitude, spatial extent and temporal dynamics of dust emissions from western dust source areas remain highly uncertain. Here, we use ensemble modeling with empirical and physically-based dust emission schemes applied to AIM monitoring data to assess regional-scale patterns of aeolian sediment mass fluxes and dust emissions. The analysis enables connections to be made between dust emission rates at source and other indicators of ecosystem function at the landscape scale. Emerging ecological datasets like AIM provide new opportunities to evaluate aeolian sediment transport responses to land surface conditions, potential interactions with

  4. Quantitative plant ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Christian

    2014-01-01

    This e-book is written in the Wolfram' CDF format (download free CDF player from Wolfram.com) The objective of this e-book is to introduce the population ecological concepts for measuring and predicting the ecological success of plant species. This will be done by focusing on the measurement...... and statistical modelling of plant species abundance and the relevant ecological processes that control species abundance. The focus on statistical modelling and likelihood function based methods also means that more algorithm based methods, e.g. ordination techniques and boosted regression tress...

  5. Mathematical modelling in economic processes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Kravtsova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In article are considered a number of methods of mathematical modelling of economic processes and opportunities of use of spreadsheets Excel for reception of the optimum decision of tasks or calculation of financial operations with the help of the built-in functions.

  6. Using ecological production functions to link ecological ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological production functions (EPFs) link ecosystems, stressors, and management actions to ecosystem services (ES) production. Although EPFs are acknowledged as being essential to improve environmental management, their use in ecological risk assessment has received relatively little attention. Ecological production functions may be defined as usable expressions (i.e., models) of the processes by which ecosystems produce ES, often including external influences on those processes. We identify key attributes of EPFs and discuss both actual and idealized examples of their use to inform decision making. Whenever possible, EPFs should estimate final, rather than intermediate, ES. Although various types of EPFs have been developed, we suggest that EPFs are more useful for decision making if they quantify ES outcomes, respond to ecosystem condition, respond to stressor levels or management scenarios, reflect ecological complexity, rely on data with broad coverage, have performed well previously, are practical to use, and are open and transparent. In an example using pesticides, we illustrate how EPFs with these attributes could enable the inclusion of ES in ecological risk assessment. The biggest challenges to ES inclusion are limited data sets that are easily adapted for use in modeling EPFs and generally poor understanding of linkages among ecological components and the processes that ultimately deliver the ES. We conclude by advocating for the incorporation into E

  7. Postglacial species displacement in Triturus newts deduced from asymmetrically introgressed mitochondrial DNA and ecological niche models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wielstra Ben

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background If the geographical displacement of one species by another is accompanied by hybridization, mitochondrial DNA can introgress asymmetrically, from the outcompeted species into the invading species, over a large area. We explore this phenomenon using the two parapatric crested newt species, Triturus macedonicus and T. karelinii, distributed on the Balkan Peninsula in south-eastern Europe, as a model. Results We first delimit a ca. 54,000 km2 area in which T. macedonicus contains T. karelinii mitochondrial DNA. This introgression zone bisects the range of T. karelinii, cutting off a T. karelinii enclave. The high similarity of introgressed mitochondrial DNA haplotypes with those found in T. karelinii suggests a recent transfer across the species boundary. We then use ecological niche modeling to explore habitat suitability of the location of the present day introgression zone under current, mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum conditions. This area was inhospitable during the Last Glacial Maximum for both species, but would have been habitable at the mid-Holocene. Since the mid-Holocene, habitat suitability generally increased for T. macedonicus, whereas it decreased for T. karelinii. Conclusion The presence of a T. karelinii enclave suggests that T. karelinii was the first to colonize the area where the present day introgression zone is positioned after the Last Glacial Maximum. Subsequently, we propose T. karelinii was outcompeted by T. macedonicus, which captured T. karelinii mitochondrial DNA via introgressive hybridization in the process. Ecological niche modeling suggests that this replacement was likely facilitated by a shift in climate since the mid-Holocene. We suggest that the northwestern part of the current introgression zone was probably never inhabited by T. karelinii itself, and that T. karelinii mitochondrial DNA spread there through T. macedonicus exclusively. Considering the spatial distribution of the

  8. An ecological assessment of pasturelands in the Balkhash area of Kazakhstan with remote sensing and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lebed, L; Qi, J; Heilman, P

    2012-01-01

    The 187 million hectares of pasturelands in Kazakhstan play a key role in the nation’s economy, as livestock production accounted for 54% of total agricultural production in 2010. However, more than half of these lands have been degraded as a result of unregulated grazing practices. Therefore, effective long term ecological monitoring of pasturelands in Kazakhstan is imperative to ensure sustainable pastureland management. As a case study in this research, we demonstrated how the ecological conditions could be assessed with remote sensing technologies and pastureland models. The example focuses on the southern Balkhash area with study sites on a foothill plain with Artemisia-ephemeral plants and a sandy plain with psammophilic vegetation in the Turan Desert. The assessment was based on remotely sensed imagery and meteorological data, a geobotanical archive and periodic ground sampling. The Pasture agrometeorological model was used to calculate biological, ecological and economic indicators to assess pastureland condition. The results showed that field surveys, meteorological observations, remote sensing and ecological models, such as Pasture, could be combined to effectively assess the ecological conditions of pasturelands and provide information about forage production that is critically important for balancing grazing and ecological conservation. (letter)

  9. Visualizing the process of process modeling with PPMCharts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claes, J.; Vanderfeesten, I.T.P.; Pinggera, J.; Reijers, H.A.; Weber, B.; Poels, G.; La Rosa, M.; Soffer, P.

    2013-01-01

    In the quest for knowledge about how to make good process models, recent research focus is shifting from studying the quality of process models to studying the process of process modeling (often abbreviated as PPM) itself. This paper reports on our efforts to visualize this specific process in such

  10. Modelling the temporal and spatial distribution of ecological variables in Beibu Gulf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, H.; Huang, L.; Yang, S.; Shi, D.; Pan, W.

    2017-12-01

    Beibu Gulf is an important semi-enclosed gulf located in northern South China Sea. It is rich in natural resources and its coastal rim is undergoing a rapid economic growth in recent years. Study on the spatial and temporal distribution of ecological variables by the influence of physical and biological processes in Beibu Gulf can provide the theoretical basis for the utilization of resources and environmental protection. Based on the MEC three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) model was applied to simulate the distribution of ecological variables in Beibu Gulf. The result shows that the ecosystem in Beibu Gulf is significantly influenced by dynamic conditions. In autumn and winter, great amount of nutrient-rich water from western Guangdong coastal area passes through Qiongzhou Strait and flows into Beibu Gulf, with about 108.3×103 t of inorganic nitrogen and 3.7×103 t of phosphate annually, leading to phytoplankton bloom. In summer, most of the nutrients come from rivers so high concentrations of nutrients and chlorophyll-a appear on estuaries. The annual net nutrient inputs from South China Sea into Beibu Gulf are 66.6×103 t for inorganic nitrogen and 4.6×103 t for phosphate. Phytoplankton plays an important role in nutrients' refreshment: a) Absorption by the process of photosynthesis is the biggest nutrient sink. b) Cellular release from dead phytoplankton is the biggest source in inorganic budget, making up for 33.4% of nitrogen consumed by photosynthesis while the process of respiration is the biggest source in phosphate budget, making up for 32.4% of phosphorus consumed by photosynthesis. c) Mineralization from detritus is also a considerable supplement of inorganic nutrients. Overall, biological process has more influence than physical process on the nutrient cycle budget in Beibu Gulf. The comparison of the result with remote sensing and in-situ data indicates that the model is able to simulate the

  11. Neuroscientific Model of Motivational Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung-Il eKim

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Considering the neuroscientific findings on reward, learning, value, decision-making, and cognitive control, motivation can be parsed into three subprocesses, a process of generating motivation, a process of maintaining motivation, and a process of regulating motivation. I propose a tentative neuroscientific model of motivational processes which consists of three distinct but continuous subprocesses, namely reward-driven approach, value-based decision making, and goal-directed control. Reward-driven approach is the process in which motivation is generated by reward anticipation and selective approach behaviors toward reward. This process recruits the ventral striatum (reward area in which basic stimulus-action association is formed, and is classified as an automatic motivation to which relatively less attention is assigned. By contrast, value-based decision making is the process of evaluating various outcomes of actions, learning through positive prediction error, and calculating the value continuously. The striatum and the orbitofrontal cortex (valuation area play crucial roles in sustaining motivation. Lastly, the goal-directed control is the process of regulating motivation through cognitive control to achieve goals. This consciously controlled motivation is associated with higher-level cognitive functions such as planning, retaining the goal, monitoring the performance, and regulating action. The anterior cingulate cortex (attention area and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (cognitive control area are the main neural circuits related to regulation of motivation. These three subprocesses interact with each other by sending reward prediction error signals through dopaminergic pathway from the striatum and to the prefrontal cortex. The neuroscientific model of motivational process suggests several educational implications with regard to the generation, maintenance, and regulation of motivation to learn in the learning environment.

  12. Using structural equation modeling to investigate relationships among ecological variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malaeb, Z.A.; Kevin, Summers J.; Pugesek, B.H.

    2000-01-01

    Structural equation modeling is an advanced multivariate statistical process with which a researcher can construct theoretical concepts, test their measurement reliability, hypothesize and test a theory about their relationships, take into account measurement errors, and consider both direct and indirect effects of variables on one another. Latent variables are theoretical concepts that unite phenomena under a single term, e.g., ecosystem health, environmental condition, and pollution (Bollen, 1989). Latent variables are not measured directly but can be expressed in terms of one or more directly measurable variables called indicators. For some researchers, defining, constructing, and examining the validity of latent variables may be the end task of itself. For others, testing hypothesized relationships of latent variables may be of interest. We analyzed the correlation matrix of eleven environmental variables from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program for Estuaries (EMAP-E) using methods of structural equation modeling. We hypothesized and tested a conceptual model to characterize the interdependencies between four latent variables-sediment contamination, natural variability, biodiversity, and growth potential. In particular, we were interested in measuring the direct, indirect, and total effects of sediment contamination and natural variability on biodiversity and growth potential. The model fit the data well and accounted for 81% of the variability in biodiversity and 69% of the variability in growth potential. It revealed a positive total effect of natural variability on growth potential that otherwise would have been judged negative had we not considered indirect effects. That is, natural variability had a negative direct effect on growth potential of magnitude -0.3251 and a positive indirect effect mediated through biodiversity of magnitude 0.4509, yielding a net positive total effect of 0

  13. Integrating human and natural systems in community psychology: an ecological model of stewardship behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moskell, Christine; Allred, Shorna Broussard

    2013-03-01

    Community psychology (CP) research on the natural environment lacks a theoretical framework for analyzing the complex relationship between human systems and the natural world. We introduce other academic fields concerned with the interactions between humans and the natural environment, including environmental sociology and coupled human and natural systems. To demonstrate how the natural environment can be included within CP's ecological framework, we propose an ecological model of urban forest stewardship action. Although ecological models of behavior in CP have previously modeled health behaviors, we argue that these frameworks are also applicable to actions that positively influence the natural environment. We chose the environmental action of urban forest stewardship because cities across the United States are planting millions of trees and increased citizen participation in urban tree planting and stewardship will be needed to sustain the benefits provided by urban trees. We used the framework of an ecological model of behavior to illustrate multiple levels of factors that may promote or hinder involvement in urban forest stewardship actions. The implications of our model for the development of multi-level ecological interventions to foster stewardship actions are discussed, as well as directions for future research to further test and refine the model.

  14. Creative Practices Embodied, Embedded, and Enacted in Architectural Settings: Toward an Ecological Model of Creativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malinin, Laura H.

    2016-01-01

    Memoires by eminently creative people often describe architectural spaces and qualities they believe instrumental for their creativity. However, places designed to encourage creativity have had mixed results, with some found to decrease creative productivity for users. This may be due, in part, to lack of suitable empirical theory or model to guide design strategies. Relationships between creative cognition and features of the physical environment remain largely uninvestigated in the scientific literature, despite general agreement among researchers that human cognition is physically and socially situated. This paper investigates what role architectural settings may play in creative processes by examining documented first person and biographical accounts of creativity with respect to three central theories of situated cognition. First, the embodied thesis argues that cognition encompasses both the mind and the body. Second, the embedded thesis maintains that people exploit features of the physical and social environment to increase their cognitive capabilities. Third, the enaction thesis describes cognition as dependent upon a person’s interactions with the world. Common themes inform three propositions, illustrated in a new theoretical framework describing relationships between people and their architectural settings with respect to different cognitive processes of creativity. The framework is intended as a starting point toward an ecological model of creativity, which may be used to guide future creative process research and architectural design strategies to support user creative productivity. PMID:26779087

  15. Creative Practices Embodied, Embedded, and Enacted in Architectural Settings: Toward an Ecological Model of Creativity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malinin, Laura H

    2015-01-01

    Memoires by eminently creative people often describe architectural spaces and qualities they believe instrumental for their creativity. However, places designed to encourage creativity have had mixed results, with some found to decrease creative productivity for users. This may be due, in part, to lack of suitable empirical theory or model to guide design strategies. Relationships between creative cognition and features of the physical environment remain largely uninvestigated in the scientific literature, despite general agreement among researchers that human cognition is physically and socially situated. This paper investigates what role architectural settings may play in creative processes by examining documented first person and biographical accounts of creativity with respect to three central theories of situated cognition. First, the embodied thesis argues that cognition encompasses both the mind and the body. Second, the embedded thesis maintains that people exploit features of the physical and social environment to increase their cognitive capabilities. Third, the enaction thesis describes cognition as dependent upon a person's interactions with the world. Common themes inform three propositions, illustrated in a new theoretical framework describing relationships between people and their architectural settings with respect to different cognitive processes of creativity. The framework is intended as a starting point toward an ecological model of creativity, which may be used to guide future creative process research and architectural design strategies to support user creative productivity.

  16. Integrated Site Model Process Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booth, T.

    2000-01-01

    The Integrated Site Model (ISM) provides a framework for discussing the geologic features and properties of Yucca Mountain, which is being evaluated as a potential site for a geologic repository for the disposal of nuclear waste. The ISM is important to the evaluation of the site because it provides 3-D portrayals of site geologic, rock property, and mineralogic characteristics and their spatial variabilities. The ISM is not a single discrete model; rather, it is a set of static representations that provide three-dimensional (3-D), computer representations of site geology, selected hydrologic and rock properties, and mineralogic-characteristics data. These representations are manifested in three separate model components of the ISM: the Geologic Framework Model (GFM), the Rock Properties Model (RPM), and the Mineralogic Model (MM). The GFM provides a representation of the 3-D stratigraphy and geologic structure. Based on the framework provided by the GFM, the RPM and MM provide spatial simulations of the rock and hydrologic properties, and mineralogy, respectively. Functional summaries of the component models and their respective output are provided in Section 1.4. Each of the component models of the ISM considers different specific aspects of the site geologic setting. Each model was developed using unique methodologies and inputs, and the determination of the modeled units for each of the components is dependent on the requirements of that component. Therefore, while the ISM represents the integration of the rock properties and mineralogy into a geologic framework, the discussion of ISM construction and results is most appropriately presented in terms of the three separate components. This Process Model Report (PMR) summarizes the individual component models of the ISM (the GFM, RPM, and MM) and describes how the three components are constructed and combined to form the ISM

  17. Processing of biological waste. Ecological efficiency and potential; Behandlung von Bioabfaellen. Oekoeffizienz und Potenziale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pitschke, Thorsten; Peche, Rene; Tronecker, Dieter; Kreibe, Siegfried [bifa Umweltinstitut GmbH, Augsburg (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    The sustainable usage of biological wastes has to be focused on the targets protection of resources and minimization of environmental impact. The only focus on the energy inventory is not sufficient. The following recommendations are summarized: separated bio-waste collection is usually more eco-efficient; the optimized bio-waste processing should be available according to the biodegradability; anaerobic degradation for biogas production and subsequent aerobic degradation of the fermentation product for compost can be combined; low-emission operational standards should be mandatory, innovation and investment should be promoted b reliable boundary conditions; ecological aspects should be equivalent to low-cost considerations; regulatory measures should be implemented for separated bio-waste collection and processing.

  18. Automated Techniques for the Qualitative Analysis of Ecological Models: Continuous Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lynn van Coller

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The mathematics required for a detailed analysis of the behavior of a model can be formidable. In this paper, I demonstrate how various computer packages can aid qualitative analyses by implementing techniques from dynamical systems theory. Because computer software is used to obtain the results, the techniques can be used by nonmathematicians as well as mathematicians. In-depth analyses of complicated models that were previously very difficult to study can now be done. Because the paper is intended as an introduction to applying the techniques to ecological models, I have included an appendix describing some of the ideas and terminology. A second appendix shows how the techniques can be applied to a fairly simple predator-prey model and establishes the reliability of the computer software. The main body of the paper discusses a ratio-dependent model. The new techniques highlight some limitations of isocline analyses in this three-dimensional setting and show that the model is structurally unstable. Another appendix describes a larger model of a sheep-pasture-hyrax-lynx system. Dynamical systems techniques are compared with a traditional sensitivity analysis and are found to give more information. As a result, an incomplete relationship in the model is highlighted. I also discuss the resilience of these models to both parameter and population perturbations.

  19. Investigating the Process of Process Modeling with Eye Movement Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pinggera, Jakob; Furtner, Marco; Martini, Markus; Sachse, Pierre; Reiter, Katharina; Zugal, Stefan; Weber, Barbara

    2015-01-01

    Research on quality issues of business process models has recently begun to explore the process of creating process models by analyzing the modeler's interactions with the modeling environment. In this paper we aim to complement previous insights on the modeler's modeling behavior with data gathered by tracking the modeler's eye movements when engaged in the act of modeling. We present preliminary results and outline directions for future research to triangulate toward a more comprehensive un...

  20. Welding process modelling and control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romine, Peter L.; Adenwala, Jinen A.

    1993-01-01

    The research and analysis performed, and software developed, and hardware/software recommendations made during 1992 in development of the PC-based data acquisition system for support of Welding Process Modeling and Control is reported. A need was identified by the Metals Processing Branch of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, for a mobile data aquisition and analysis system, customized for welding measurement and calibration. Several hardware configurations were evaluated and a PC-based system was chosen. The Welding Measurement System (WMS) is a dedicated instrument, strictly for the use of data aquisition and analysis. Although the WMS supports many of the functions associated with the process control, it is not the intention for this system to be used for welding process control.

  1. Microbial ecology of Vietnamese Tra fish (Pangasius hypophthalmus) fillets during processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong Thi, Anh Ngoc; Noseda, Bert; Samapundo, Simbarashe; Nguyen, Binh Ly; Broekaert, Katrien; Rasschaert, Geertrui; Heyndrickx, Marc; Devlieghere, Frank

    2013-10-15

    There are numerous factors that can have an impact on the microbial ecology and quality of frozen Pangasius hypophthalmus fillets during processing in Vietnam. The presence of spoilage bacteria along the processing line can shorten the shelf-life of thawed frozen fish products. Therefore, the spoilage microbiota throughout the processing chain of two companies (BC: large scale factory, chlorine-based process, BW: large scale factory, water-based process and SC: small scale factory, chlorine-based process) was identified by culture-dependent techniques and 16S rRNA gene sequencing. The microbiological counts were observed to be insignificantly different (p>0.05) between BC and BW. Surprisingly, chlorine treated fillets from the SC line were revealed to have significantly higher microbial counts than potable water treated fillets at BW line. This was determined to be a result of temperature abuse during processing at SC, with temperatures even greater than 10 °C being recorded from skinning onwards. On the contrary, the microbiota related to spoilage for BC and BW lines was determined by 16S rRNA gene sequencing to be more diverse than that on the SC line. A total of 174 isolates, 20 genera and 38 species were identified along the processing chains. The genera Aeromonas, Acinetobacter, Lactococcus and Enterococcus were prevalent at various processing steps on all the processing lines evaluated. A diverse range of isolates belonging to the Enterobacteriaceae such as Providencia, Shigella, Klebsiella, Enterobacter and Wautersiella were isolated from fillets sampled on the SC line whereas Serratia was only observed on fillets sampled on the BC and BW lines. The results can be used to improve Good Manufacturing Practices for processed Pangasius fillets and to select effective measures to prolong the shelf-life of thawed Vietnamese Pangasius fillets products. © 2013.

  2. Possibilities of the Integration of the Method of the Ecologically Oriented Independent Scientific Research in the Study Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grizans, Jurijs; Vanags, Janis

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to analyse possibilities of the integration of the method of the ecologically oriented independent scientific research in the study process. In order to achieve the set aim, the following scientific research methods were used: analysis of the conceptual guidelines for the development of environmentally oriented entrepreneurship, interpretation of the experts' evaluation of the ecologically oriented management, analysis of the results of the students' ecologically oriented independent scientific research, as well as monographic and logically constructive methods. The results of the study give an opportunity to make conclusions and to develop conceptual recommendations on how to introduce future economics and business professionals with the theoretical and practical aspects of ecologically oriented management during the study process.

  3. A National Disturbance Modeling System to Support Ecological Carbon Sequestration Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawbaker, T. J.; Rollins, M. G.; Volegmann, J. E.; Shi, H.; Sohl, T. L.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is prototyping a methodology to fulfill requirements of Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007. At the core of the EISA requirements is the development of a methodology to complete a two-year assessment of current carbon stocks and other greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, and potential increases for ecological carbon sequestration under a range of future climate changes, land-use / land-cover configurations, and policy, economic and management scenarios. Disturbances, especially fire, affect vegetation dynamics and ecosystem processes, and can also introduce substantial uncertainty and risk to the efficacy of long-term carbon sequestration strategies. Thus, the potential impacts of disturbances need to be considered under different scenarios. As part of USGS efforts to meet EISA requirements, we developed the National Disturbance Modeling System (NDMS) using a series of statistical and process-based simulation models. NDMS produces spatially-explicit forecasts of future disturbance locations and severity, and the resulting effects on vegetation dynamics. NDMS is embedded within the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Cover (FORE-SCE) model and informs the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) for quantifying carbon stocks and GHG fluxes. For fires, NDMS relies on existing disturbance histories, such as the Landsat derived Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) and Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) data being used to update LANDFIRE fuels data. The MTBS and VCT data are used to parameterize models predicting the number and size of fires in relation to climate, land-use/land-cover change, and socioeconomic variables. The locations of individual fire ignitions are determined by an ignition probability surface and then FARSITE is used to simulate fire spread in response to weather, fuels, and topography. Following the fire spread simulations, a burn severity model is used to determine annual

  4. Modeling methane emission via the infinite moving average process

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jordanova, D.; Dušek, Jiří; Stehlík, M.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 122, - (2013), s. 40-49 ISSN 0169-7439 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA ČR(CZ) GAP504/11/1151 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Environmental chemistry * Pareto tails * t-Hill estimator * Weak consistency * Moving average process * Methane emission model Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.381, year: 2013

  5. The Effect of Learning Cycle Model on Students’ Reducing Ecological Footprints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özgül Keleş

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to investigate effect of ecological footprint education, in which 5E learning cycle model is used, in reducing primary school students’ ecological footprints. The working group of the study is composed of 124 primary school students studying in 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th classes. In this study, 5E learning model is used in teaching a course in order to increase the participating students’ knowledge about ecological footprints and to calculate ecological footprints. Experimental method is used in this study. In data analysis, the paired samples t-test is used in for relevant samplings. The findings gathered indicate that ecological footprints of the participating students to the study decreased at the end of the study. It is determined that the mean of primary students’ ecological footprints differ from meaningfully according to level of the class and sex. Prospective solution offers are developed by handling the prospective effects of conclusions of the study on sustainable life and environmental education and conclusions’ importance in terms of learning and developing learning programmes with a critical point of view

  6. Developing predictive systems models to address complexity and relevance for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Valery E; Calow, Peter

    2013-07-01

    Ecological risk assessments (ERAs) are not used as well as they could be in risk management. Part of the problem is that they often lack ecological relevance; that is, they fail to grasp necessary ecological complexities. Adding realism and complexity can be difficult and costly. We argue that predictive systems models (PSMs) can provide a way of capturing complexity and ecological relevance cost-effectively. However, addressing complexity and ecological relevance is only part of the problem. Ecological risk assessments often fail to meet the needs of risk managers by not providing assessments that relate to protection goals and by expressing risk in ratios that cannot be weighed against the costs of interventions. Once more, PSMs can be designed to provide outputs in terms of value-relevant effects that are modulated against exposure and that can provide a better basis for decision making than arbitrary ratios or threshold values. Recent developments in the modeling and its potential for implementation by risk assessors and risk managers are beginning to demonstrate how PSMs can be practically applied in risk assessment and the advantages that doing so could have. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  7. Social-ecological research in urban natural areas: an emergent process for integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelle L. Johnson; D. S. Novem Auyeung; Nancy F. Sonti; Clara C. Pregitzer; Heather L. McMillen; Richard Hallett; Lindsay K. Campbell; Helen M. Forgione; Mina Kim; Sarah Charlop-Powers; Erika S. Svendsen

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the structure and function of urban landscapes requires integrating social and ecological research. Here, we integrate parallel social and ecological assessments of natural areas within New York City. We examined social data (from a rapid assessment of park use and meaning, collected at a park zone level) alongside ecological data (froma plot-based...

  8. Effects of silvicultural activity on ecological processes in floodplain forests of the southern United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lockaby, B.G.; Stanturf, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    Activities associated with timber harvesting have occurred within floodplain forests in the southern United States for nearly two hundred years. However, it is only in the last ten years that any information has become available about the effects of harvesting on the ecological functions of this valuable resource. Hydrology is the driving influence behind all ecological processes in floodplains and, in most cases, timber harvesting alone has little long-term effect on hydroperiod. However, there may be some instances where logging roads, built in association with harvest sites , can alter hydroperiod to the extent that vegetation productivity is altered positively or negatively. There is no documentation that harvesting followed by natural regeneration represents a threat to ground or surface water quality on floodplain sites, as long as Best Management Practices are followed. Harvested floodplains may increase or have little effect on decomposition rates of surface organic matter. The nature of the effect seems to be controlled by site wetness. Data from recently harvested sites (i.e. within the last ten years) suggest that vegetation productivity is maintained at levels similar to that observed prior to harvests. During the early stages of stand development vegetation species composition is heavily influenced by harvest method. Similarly, amphibian populations (monitored as bioindicators of ecosystem recovery) seem to rebound rapidly following harvests, although species composition may be different. 40 refs, 3 figs

  9. Higher-order neural processing tunes motion neurons to visual ecology in three species of hawkmoths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stöckl, A L; O'Carroll, D; Warrant, E J

    2017-06-28

    To sample information optimally, sensory systems must adapt to the ecological demands of each animal species. These adaptations can occur peripherally, in the anatomical structures of sensory organs and their receptors; and centrally, as higher-order neural processing in the brain. While a rich body of investigations has focused on peripheral adaptations, our understanding is sparse when it comes to central mechanisms. We quantified how peripheral adaptations in the eyes, and central adaptations in the wide-field motion vision system, set the trade-off between resolution and sensitivity in three species of hawkmoths active at very different light levels: nocturnal Deilephila elpenor, crepuscular Manduca sexta , and diurnal Macroglossum stellatarum. Using optical measurements and physiological recordings from the photoreceptors and wide-field motion neurons in the lobula complex, we demonstrate that all three species use spatial and temporal summation to improve visual performance in dim light. The diurnal Macroglossum relies least on summation, but can only see at brighter intensities. Manduca, with large sensitive eyes, relies less on neural summation than the smaller eyed Deilephila , but both species attain similar visual performance at nocturnal light levels. Our results reveal how the visual systems of these three hawkmoth species are intimately matched to their visual ecologies. © 2017 The Author(s).

  10. Advanced oxidation processes: overall models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez, M. [Univ. de los Andes, Escuela Basica de Ingenieria, La Hechicera, Merida (Venezuela); Curco, D.; Addardak, A.; Gimenez, J.; Esplugas, S. [Dept. de Ingenieria Quimica. Univ. de Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain)

    2003-07-01

    Modelling AOPs implies to consider all the steps included in the process, that means, mass transfer, kinetic (reaction) and luminic steps. In this way, recent works develop models which relate the global reaction rate to catalyst concentration and radiation absorption. However, the application of such models requires to know what is the controlling step for the overall process. In this paper, a simple method is explained which allows to determine the controlling step. Thus, it is assumed that reactor is divided in two hypothetical zones (dark and illuminated), and according to the experimental results, obtained by varying only the reaction volume, it can be decided if reaction occurs only in the illuminated zone or in the all reactor, including dark zone. The photocatalytic degradation of phenol, by using titania degussa P-25 as catalyst, is studied as reaction model. The preliminary results obtained are presented here, showing that it seems that, in this case, reaction only occurs in the illuminated zone of photoreactor. A model is developed to explain this behaviour. (orig.)

  11. Model for amorphous aggregation processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stranks, Samuel D.; Ecroyd, Heath; van Sluyter, Steven; Waters, Elizabeth J.; Carver, John A.; von Smekal, Lorenz

    2009-11-01

    The amorphous aggregation of proteins is associated with many phenomena, ranging from the formation of protein wine haze to the development of cataract in the eye lens and the precipitation of recombinant proteins during their expression and purification. While much literature exists describing models for linear protein aggregation, such as amyloid fibril formation, there are few reports of models which address amorphous aggregation. Here, we propose a model to describe the amorphous aggregation of proteins which is also more widely applicable to other situations where a similar process occurs, such as in the formation of colloids and nanoclusters. As first applications of the model, we have tested it against experimental turbidimetry data of three proteins relevant to the wine industry and biochemistry, namely, thaumatin, a thaumatinlike protein, and α -lactalbumin. The model is very robust and describes amorphous experimental data to a high degree of accuracy. Details about the aggregation process, such as shape parameters of the aggregates and rate constants, can also be extracted.

  12. EcoPAD, an interactive platform for near real-time ecological forecasting by assimilating data into model

    Science.gov (United States)

    MA, S.; Huang, Y.; Stacy, M.; Jiang, J.; Sundi, N.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Hanson, P. J.; Luo, Y.; Saruta, V.

    2017-12-01

    Ecological forecasting is critical in various aspects of our coupled human-nature systems, such as disaster risk reduction, natural resource management and climate change mitigation. Novel advancements are in urgent need to deepen our understandings of ecosystem dynamics, boost the predictive capacity of ecology, and provide timely and effective information for decision-makers in a rapidly changing world. Our study presents a smart system - Ecological Platform for Assimilation of Data (EcoPAD) - which streamlines web request-response, data management, model execution, result storage and visualization. EcoPAD allows users to (i) estimate model parameters or state variables, (ii) quantify uncertainty of estimated parameters and projected states of ecosystems, (iii) evaluate model structures, (iv) assess sampling strategies, (v) conduct ecological forecasting, and (vi) detect ecosystem acclimation to climate change. One of the key innovations of the web-based EcoPAD is the automated near- or real-time forecasting of ecosystem dynamics with uncertainty fully quantified. The user friendly webpage enables non-modelers to explore their data for simulation and data assimilation. As a case study, we applied EcoPAD to the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change Experiment (SPRUCE), a whole ecosystem warming and CO2 enrichment treatment project in the northern peatland, assimilated multiple data streams into a process based ecosystem model, enhanced timely feedback between modelers and experimenters, ultimately improved ecosystem forecasting and made better use of current knowledge. Built in a framework with flexible API, EcoPAD is easily portable and will benefit scientific communities, policy makers as well as the general public.

  13. Range bagging: a new method for ecological niche modelling from presence-only data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, John M

    2015-06-06

    The ecological niche is the set of environments in which a population of a species can persist without introduction of individuals from other locations. A good mathematical or computational representation of the niche is a prerequisite to addressing many questions in ecology, biogeography, evolutionary biology and conservation. A particularly challenging question for ecological niche modelling is the problem of presence-only modelling. That is, can an ecological niche be identified from records drawn only from the set of niche environments without records from non-niche environments for comparison? Here, I introduce a new method for ecological niche modelling from presence-only data called range bagging. Range bagging draws on the concept of a species' environmental range, but was inspired by the empirical performance of ensemble learning algorithms in other areas of ecological research. This paper extends the concept of environmental range to multiple dimensions and shows that range bagging is computationally feasible even when the number of environmental dimensions is large. The target of the range bagging base learner is an environmental tolerance of the species in a projection of its niche and is therefore an ecologically interpretable property of a species' biological requirements. The computational complexity of range bagging is linear in the number of examples, which compares favourably with the main alternative, Qhull. In conclusion, range bagging appears to be a reasonable choice for niche modelling in applications in which a presence-only method is desired and may provide a solution to problems in other disciplines where one-class classification is required, such as outlier detection and concept learning.

  14. Management of Ecological-Economic Processes of Pollution Accumulation and Assimilation in the Coastal Zone Marine Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.E. Timchenko

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available A model for managing the balance of pollution (getting into the sea with the coastal runoff assimilation and accumulation, based on the negative feedback between the coastal economic system efficiency and penalties for the sea coastal zone pollution is proposed. The model is constructed by the Adaptive Balance of Causes method and is intended for finding a rational balance of profit from the use of assimilative resources of the marine environment and the costs of maintaining its quality. The increase of pollutions in the coastal zone is taken as proportional to the volume of product realization. The decrease of pollution concentration is related to the environment protection activities paid for by the production. The model contains the agents for managing the volume of the economic system generalized production release. The agents control pollution accumulation rate at different ones of the bio-chemical processes resulting in the marine environment natural purification. Scenario analysis of ecological-economic processes in the “Land–Sea” system is carried out, and the dependencies of economic subsystem production profitability on penalty sanctions limiting the pollutant flux getting into the sea are constructed. Sea temperature and water mass dynamics effect on these processes is considered. The scenarios of their intra-annual variability are constructed. It is shown that the sea temperature and near-water wind consideration in the model have a significant effect on marine environment pollution level and production profitability. The conclusion is that the proposed adaptive simulation model “Sea–Land” can be used for forecasting the scenarios of coastal subsystem production processes (the volume of generalized product manufacturing, production cost, profitability in parallel with the forecast of pollution concentration in the sea scenarios.

  15. A Synergistic Approach for Evaluating Climate Model Output for Ecological Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel D. Cavanagh

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer, there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output.

  16. A Framework for Linking Population Model Development with Ecological Risk Assessment Objectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The value of models that link organism‐level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERAs) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism&#...

  17. Spatial agent-based models for socio-ecological systems: challenges and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Filatova, T.; Verburg, P.H.; Parker, D.C.; Stannard, S.R.

    2013-01-01

    Departing from the comprehensive reviews carried out in the field, we identify the key challenges that agent-based methodology faces when modeling coupled socio-ecological systems. Focusing primarily on the papers presented in this thematic issue, we review progress in spatial agent-based models

  18. COMPARING THE UTILITY OF MULTIMEDIA MODELS FOR HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL EXPOSURE ANALYSIS: TWO CASES

    Science.gov (United States)

    A number of models are available for exposure assessment; however, few are used as tools for both human and ecosystem risks. This discussion will consider two modeling frameworks that have recently been used to support human and ecological decision making. The study will compare ...

  19. The use of typed lambda calculus for comprehension and construction of simulation models in the domain of ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uschold, Michael

    1992-01-01

    We are concerned with two important issues in simulation modelling: model comprehension and model construction. Model comprehension is limited because many important choices taken during the modelling process are not documented. This makes it difficult for models to be modified or used by others. A key factor hindering model construction is the vast modelling search space which must be navigated. This is exacerbated by the fact that many modellers are unfamiliar with the terms and concepts catered to by current tools. The root of both problems is the lack of facilities for representing or reasoning about domain concepts in current simulation technology. The basis for our achievements in both of these areas is the development of a language with two distinct levels; one for representing domain information, and the other for representing the simulation model. Of equal importance, is the fact that we make formal connections between these two levels. The domain we are concerned with is ecological modelling. This language, called Elklogic, is based on the typed lambda calculus. Important features include a rich type structure, the use of various higher order functions, and semantics. This enables complex expressions to be constructed from relatively few primitives. The meaning of each expression can be determined in terms of the domain, the simulation model, or the relationship between the two. We describe a novel representation for sets and substructure, and a variety of other general concepts that are especially useful in the ecological domain. We use the type structure in a novel way: for controlling the modelling search space, rather than a proof search space. We facilitate model comprehension by representing modelling decisions that are embodied in the simulation model. We represent the simulation model separately from, but in terms of a domain mode. The explicit links between the two models constitute the modelling decisions. The semantics of Elklogic enables

  20. Volcano ecology at Chaiten, Chile: geophysical processes interact with forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanson, F. J.; Crisafulli, C.; Jones, J. A.; Lara, A.

    2010-12-01

    The May 2008 eruption of Chaiten Volcano (Chile) offers many insights into volcano ecology -ecological responses to volcanic and associated hydrologic processes and ecosystem development in post-eruption landscapes. Varied intensities of pyroclastic density currents (PDC) and thickness of tephra fall deposits (to 50+ cm) created strong gradients of disturbance in several hundred square kilometers of native forest in a sector north to southeast from the volcano. A gradient from tree removal to toppled forest to standing, scorched forest extends 1.5 km northward from the caldera rim along the trajectory of a PDC. Close to the vent (e.g., 2 km NE from rim) a rain of ca. 10 cm of gravel tephra stripped foliage and twigs from tree canopies; farther away (23 km SE) 10 cm of fine tephra loaded the canopy, causing extensive fall of limbs >8 cm diameter. Even in the severely disturbed, north-flank PDC zone, surviving bamboo, ferns, and other herbs sprouted from pre-eruption soil and other refugia; sprouts of new foliage appeared on the boles and major limbs of several species of toppled and scorched, standing trees; animals including vertebrates (rodents and amphibians) and terrestrial invertebrates (e.g., insects and arachnids) either survived or quickly recolonized; and a diverse fungal community began decomposing the vast dead wood resource. During the second growing season we documented the presence of some plant species that had colonized by seed. Within two years after the eruption secondary ecological disturbances resulting from channel change and overbank deposition of fluvially transported tephra created new patches of damaged forest in riparian zones of streams draining the north flank and along the Rio Rayas and Rio Chaiten. These features parallel observations in the intensively-studied, post-1980-eruption landscape of Mount St. Helens over a similar time period. However, several aspects of ecological response to the two eruptions differ because of differences

  1. A Distributed Model of Oilseed Biorefining, via Integrated Industrial Ecology Exchanges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrell, Jeremy C.

    As the demand for direct petroleum substitutes increases, biorefineries are poised to become centers for conversion of biomass into fuels, energy, and biomaterials. A distributed model offers reduced transportation, tailored process technology to available feedstock, and increased local resilience. Oilseeds are capable of producing a wide variety of useful products additive to food, feed, and fuel needs. Biodiesel manufacturing technology lends itself to smaller-scale distributed facilities able to process diverse feedstocks and meet demand of critical diesel fuel for basic municipal services, safety, sanitation, infrastructure repair, and food production. Integrating biodiesel refining facilities as tenants of eco-industrial parks presents a novel approach for synergistic energy and material exchanges whereby environmental and economic metrics can be significantly improved upon compared to stand alone models. This research is based on the Catawba County NC EcoComplex and the oilseed crushing and biodiesel processing facilities (capacity-433 tons biodiesel per year) located within. Technical and environmental analyses of the biorefinery components as well as agronomic and economic models are presented. The life cycle assessment for the two optimal biodiesel feedstocks, soybeans and used cooking oil, resulted in fossil energy ratios of 7.19 and 12.1 with carbon intensity values of 12.51 gCO2-eq/MJ and 7.93 gCO2-eq/MJ, respectively within the industrial ecology system. Economic modeling resulted in a biodiesel conversion cost of 1.43 per liter of fuel produced with used cooking oil, requiring a subsidy of 0.58 per liter to reach the break-even point. As subsidies continue significant fluctuation, metrics other than operating costs are required to justify small-scale biofuel projects.

  2. Spatial ecology across scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, Alan; Petrovskii, Sergei; Morozov, Andrew

    2011-04-23

    The international conference 'Models in population dynamics and ecology 2010: animal movement, dispersal and spatial ecology' took place at the University of Leicester, UK, on 1-3 September 2010, focusing on mathematical approaches to spatial population dynamics and emphasizing cross-scale issues. Exciting new developments in scaling up from individual level movement to descriptions of this movement at the macroscopic level highlighted the importance of mechanistic approaches, with different descriptions at the microscopic level leading to different ecological outcomes. At higher levels of organization, different macroscopic descriptions of movement also led to different properties at the ecosystem and larger scales. New developments from Levy flight descriptions to the incorporation of new methods from physics and elsewhere are revitalizing research in spatial ecology, which will both increase understanding of fundamental ecological processes and lead to tools for better management.

  3. Probabilistic evaluation of process model matching techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuss, Elena; Leopold, Henrik; van der Aa, Han; Stuckenschmidt, Heiner; Reijers, Hajo A.

    2016-01-01

    Process model matching refers to the automatic identification of corresponding activities between two process models. It represents the basis for many advanced process model analysis techniques such as the identification of similar process parts or process model search. A central problem is how to

  4. Computational modeling for eco engineering: Making the connections between engineering and ecology (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, C.

    2013-12-01

    Ecological engineering, or eco engineering, is an emerging field in the study of integrating ecology and engineering, concerned with the design, monitoring, and construction of ecosystems. According to Mitsch (1996) 'the design of sustainable ecosystems intends to integrate human society with its natural environment for the benefit of both'. Eco engineering emerged as a new idea in the early 1960s, and the concept has seen refinement since then. As a commonly practiced field of engineering it is relatively novel. Howard Odum (1963) and others first introduced it as 'utilizing natural energy sources as the predominant input to manipulate and control environmental systems'. Mtisch and Jorgensen (1989) were the first to define eco engineering, to provide eco engineering principles and conceptual eco engineering models. Later they refined the definition and increased the number of principles. They suggested that the goals of eco engineering are: a) the restoration of ecosystems that have been substantially disturbed by human activities such as environmental pollution or land disturbance, and b) the development of new sustainable ecosystems that have both human and ecological values. Here a more detailed overview of eco engineering is provided, particularly with regard to how engineers and ecologists are utilizing multi-dimensional computational models to link ecology and engineering, resulting in increasingly successful project implementation. Descriptions are provided pertaining to 1-, 2- and 3-dimensional hydrodynamic models and their use at small- and large-scale applications. A range of conceptual models that have been developed to aid the in the creation of linkages between ecology and engineering are discussed. Finally, several case studies that link ecology and engineering via computational modeling are provided. These studies include localized stream rehabilitation, spawning gravel enhancement on a large river system, and watershed-wide floodplain modeling of

  5. Toward the quantification of a conceptual framework for movement ecology using circular statistical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimatani, Ichiro Ken; Yoda, Ken; Katsumata, Nobuhiro; Sato, Katsufumi

    2012-01-01

    To analyze an animal's movement trajectory, a basic model is required that satisfies the following conditions: the model must have an ecological basis and the parameters used in the model must have ecological interpretations, a broad range of movement patterns can be explained by that model, and equations and probability distributions in the model should be mathematically tractable. Random walk models used in previous studies do not necessarily satisfy these requirements, partly because movement trajectories are often more oriented or tortuous than expected from the models. By improving the modeling for turning angles, this study aims to propose a basic movement model. On the basis of the recently developed circular auto-regressive model, we introduced a new movement model and extended its applicability to capture the asymmetric effects of external factors such as wind. The model was applied to GPS trajectories of a seabird (Calonectris leucomelas) to demonstrate its applicability to various movement patterns and to explain how the model parameters are ecologically interpreted under a general conceptual framework for movement ecology. Although it is based on a simple extension of a generalized linear model to circular variables, the proposed model enables us to evaluate the effects of external factors on movement separately from the animal's internal state. For example, maximum likelihood estimates and model selection suggested that in one homing flight section, the seabird intended to fly toward the island, but misjudged its navigation and was driven off-course by strong winds, while in the subsequent flight section, the seabird reset the focal direction, navigated the flight under strong wind conditions, and succeeded in approaching the island.

  6. Marine fronts at the continental shelves of austral South America - Physical and ecological processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acha, Eduardo M.; Mianzan, Hermes W.; Guerrero, Raúl A.; Favero, Marco; Bava, José

    2004-01-01

    Neritic fronts are very abundant in austral South America, covering several scales of space and time. However, this region is poorly studied from a systemic point of view. Our main goal is to develop a holistic view of physical and ecological patterns and processes at austral South America, regarding frontal arrangements. Satellite information (sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration), and historical hydrographic data were employed to show fronts. We compiled all existing evidence (physical and biological) about fronts to identify regions defined by similar types of coastal fronts and to characterize them. Fronts in austral South America can be arranged in six zones according to their location, main forcing, key physical variables, seasonality, and enrichment mechanisms. Four zones, the Atlantic upwelling zone; the temperate estuarine zone; the Patagonian tidal zone and the Argentine shelf-break zone, occupy most of the Atlantic side. The Chile-Peru upwelling zone, on the Pacific, is the largest and best-known region. The Patagonian cold estuarine zone encompasses the tip of South America, connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and remains poorly studied. When observed at a continental scale, the Pacific coast dominated by two large frontal zones appears simplest than the Atlantic coast in terms of frontal richness. The extension of the continental shelf in the Atlantic coast allows for the development of a great diversity of mesoscale fronts. Though frontal zones we defined are extensive areas of the continental shelves, fronts inside the zones are comparatively small areas. Even so, they play a paramount role in ecological processes, allowing for high biological production; offering feeding and/or reproductive habitats for fishes, squids, and birds; acting as retention areas for larvae of benthic species; and promoting establishment of benthic invertebrates that benefit from the organic production in the frontal area.

  7. Evaluation of Ecological Environmental Quality in a Coal Mining Area by Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaodong Yan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to explore the effective method of the comprehensive evaluation of ecological environmental quality in a coal mining area. Firstly, we analyzed the ecological environmental effect of the coal mining area according to Pigovian Tax theory and, according to the results of the analysis and the demand for the selection of evaluation indices by the comprehensive evaluation, built the corresponding comprehensive evaluation index system. We then used the correlation function method to determine the relative weights of each index. We determined the basic standards of a comprehensive evaluation of ecological environmental quality in a coal mining area according to the actual situation of ecological environmental quality assessments in coal mining areas in our country and the relevant provisions of the government. On this basis, we built the two-level extension comprehensive evaluation model for the evaluation of ecological environmental quality in mining areas. Finally, we chose a certain coal mining area of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited as the specific case. We used the relevant statistic data, technical and economic indices and the extension evaluation model to do the applied research of the comprehensive evaluation and tested the effectiveness of the comprehensive evaluation model.

  8. Divergence is not enough: the use of ecological niche models for the validation of taxon boundaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagnino, D; Minuto, L; Casazza, G

    2017-11-01

    Delimiting taxon boundaries is crucial for any evolutionary research and conservation regulation. In order to avoid mistaken description of species, the approach of integrative taxonomy recommends considering multidisciplinary lines of evidence, including ecology. Unfortunately, ecological data are often difficult to quantify objectively. Here we test and discuss the potential use of ecological niche models for validating taxon boundaries, using three pairs of closely related plant taxa endemic to the south-western Alps as a case study. We also discuss the application of ecological niche models for species delimitation and the implementation of different approaches. Niche overlap, niche equivalency and niche similarity were assessed both in multidimensional environmental space and in geographic space to look for differences in the niche of three pairs of closely related plant taxa. We detected a high degree of niche differentiation between taxa although this result seems not due to differences in habitat selection. The different statistical tests gave contrasting outcomes between environmental and geographic spaces. According to our results, niche divergence does not seem to support taxon boundaries at species level, but may have had important consequences for local adaptation and in generating phenotypic diversity at intraspecific level. Environmental space analysis should be preferred to geographic space as it provides more clear results. Even if the different analyses widely disagree in their conclusions about taxon boundaries, our study suggests that ecological niche models may help taxonomists to reach a decision. © 2017 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

  9. ECOLOGICAL MODELING OF LOCUSTA MIGRATORIA L. BREEDING CONDITIONS IN SOUTH-EASTERN KAZAKHSTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Malakhov

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background. The method of ecological niche modeling (ENM was applied to reconstruct the nesting conditions of one of the most widely-known pest species, Locusta migratoria asiatica, with a focus of nesting in Balkhash-Alakol basin. The ENM uses a set of input environmental variables to analyze and select the key factors from the entire input set. The key factors are the climatic variables which define the wellbeing of an organism; and the range of these variables may be calculated with statistical and GIS approaches. Materials and methods. The method of ENM used in current paper is referred to as “presence-only” since it utilizes the known localities of the animal (in our study, egg-clutches to develop a model. The model outlines the area where the successful development of locust egg-boxes is most probable, rather than the actual nesting area. Further analysis of the identified key variables allows definition of the most vulnerable stages of the locust life-cycle. Results. The most important factors, influencing the development of the locust over its life-cycle, are: the ambient air temperature; the temperature of the soil during the cold season of the year; and soil moisture. The locust is an ectotherm organism, which has a restricted ability to regulate its body temperature; and the ambient temperature thus serves as a major factor affecting the animal’s behavior. Wintering egg-boxes are immobile and face even more environmental challenges than nymphs or adults do. The soil temperature may not depend upon a single variable, like the air temperature, but is a function of the complex relationship between the thermal properties of the air and soil. The process of the energy flux between soil and atmosphere incudes many factors, particularly related to soil-moisture content and the physical properties of the soil. The analysis of key variables should not be performed without an understanding of the complex relationships between the abiotic

  10. The impacts of multiple stressors to model ecological structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landis, W.G.; Kelly, S.A.; Markiewicz, A.J.; Matthews, R.A.; Matthews, G.B.

    1995-01-01

    The basis of the community conditioning hypothesis is that ecological structures are the result of their unique etiology. Systems that have been exposed to a variety of stressors should reflect this history. The authors how conducted a series of microcosm experiments that can compare the effects of multiple stressors upon community dynamics. The microcosm protocols are derived from the Standardized Aquatic Microcosm (SAM) and have Lemma and additional protozoan species. Two multiple stressor experiments have been conducted. In an extended length SAM (ELSAM), two of four treatments were dosed with the turbine fuel JP-8 one week into the experiment. Two treatments were later exposed to the heat stress, one that had received jet fuel and one that had not. Similarly, an ELSAM was conducted with the second stressor being the further addition of JP-8 replacing the heat shock. Biological, physical and chemical data were analyzed with multivariate techniques including nonmetric clustering and association analysis. Space-time worms and phase diagrams were also employed to ascertain the dynamic relationships of variables identified as important by the multivariate techniques. The experiments do not result in a simple additive linear response to the additional stressor. Examination of the relative population dynamics reveal alterations in trajectories that suggest treatment related effects. As in previous single stressor experiments, recovery does not occur even after extended experimental periods. The authors are now attempting to measure the resulting trajectories, changes in similarity vectors and overall dynamics. However, community conditioning does appear to be an important framework in understanding systems with a heterogeneous array of stressors

  11. Landscape Ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Andreas Aagaard; Brandt, Jesper; Svenningsen, Stig Roar

    2017-01-01

    Landscape ecology is an interdisciplinary field of research and practice that deals with the mutual association between the spatial configuration and ecological functioning of landscapes, exploring and describing processes involved in the differentiation of spaces within landscapes......, and the ecological significance of the patterns which are generated by such processes. In landscape ecology, perspectives drawn from existing academic disciplines are integrated based on a common, spatially explicit mode of analysis developed from classical holistic geography, emphasizing spatial and landscape...... pattern analysis and ecological interaction of land units. The landscape is seen as a holon: an assemblage of interrelated phenomena, both cultural and biophysical, that together form a complex whole. Enduring challenges to landscape ecology include the need to develop a systematic approach able...

  12. Participatory Social-Ecological Modeling in Eutrophication Management: the Case of Himmerfjärden, Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frida Franzén

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Stakeholder participation is increasingly seen as central in natural resource management. It is also required by the European Union Water Framework Directive, which identifies three levels of participation; information, consultation, and active involvement. In this paper we discuss the active involvement of stakeholders, using our experience from a case study in the Himmerfjärden region, which is a coastal area southwest of Stockholm, Sweden. Our study used the systems approach proposed by the European Union research project called Science and Policy Integration for Coastal System Assessment (SPICOSA, in which local stakeholders and a study site team constructed an integrated simulation model of a crucial coastal management issue. In this case the issue was nitrogen enrichment. We showed how stakeholder participation in the modeling process helped identify interesting and currently relevant management scenarios, and how the modeling process facilitated communication of the likely ecological, economic, and social effects of these scenarios to the stakeholders. In addition, stakeholders also reported social gains in terms of network building. We managed to actively involve local stakeholders in water issues, and the research process clearly strengthened the social capital in the Himmerfjärden region, and created a basis for future collaboration regarding water management. Our experience indicates that the approach we tried is a useful tool for promoting active stakeholder involvement in water management projects. Also, the results of our science and policy integration approach indicated that the study site team assumed a leadership role, which is a commonly recognized factor in successful natural resource management.

  13. Dynamic two state stochastic models for ecological regime shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Carstensen, Niels Jacob; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    of the model illustrates that hysteresis effect and regime shifts can be obtained for a limited range of parameter values only. The effect of multiplicative noise components entering at different levels of the model is presented and discussed. Including noise leads to very different results on the stability...

  14. Evolutionary ecology in silico: Does mathematical modelling help

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Keywords. Computer simulation; extinction; food web; population dynamics; speciation; unified model ... Moreover, because of the availability of sufficiently fast computers, it has become possible to carry out detailed computer simulations of these models. For the sake of completeness and to put these recent developments ...

  15. Mathematical modeling of biological processes

    CERN Document Server

    Friedman, Avner

    2014-01-01

    This book on mathematical modeling of biological processes includes a wide selection of biological topics that demonstrate the power of mathematics and computational codes in setting up biological processes with a rigorous and predictive framework. Topics include: enzyme dynamics, spread of disease, harvesting bacteria, competition among live species, neuronal oscillations, transport of neurofilaments in axon, cancer and cancer therapy, and granulomas. Complete with a description of the biological background and biological question that requires the use of mathematics, this book is developed for graduate students and advanced undergraduate students with only basic knowledge of ordinary differential equations and partial differential equations; background in biology is not required. Students will gain knowledge on how to program with MATLAB without previous programming experience and how to use codes in order to test biological hypothesis.

  16. Urban Optimum Population Size and Development Pattern Based on Ecological Footprint Model: Case of Zhoushan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan LU

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The agglomeration of population in the city can reflect the prosperity in the economy, society and culture. However, it has also brought a series of problems like environmental pollution, traffic congestion, housing shortage and jobs crisis. The results can be shown as the failure of urban comprehensive function, the decline of city benefits, and the contradiction between socioeconomic circumstance and ecosystem. Therefore, a reasonable population capacity, which is influenced by ecological resources, urban environment, geographical elements, social and economic factors, etc., is objectively needed. How to deal with the relationship between the utilization of natural capital and development of the city is extremely essential. This paper takes Zhoushan Island as an example, which is the fourth largest island off the coast of China. Firstly, the interactively influencing factors of urban optimal population are illustrated. And method is chosen to study the optimal population size. Secondly, based on the model of ecological footprint (EP, the paper calculates and analyzes the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of the Zhoushan Island, in order to explore the optimal population size of the city. Thirdly, analysis and evaluation of the resources and urban environment carrying capacity is made. Finally, the solution of the existing population problems and the suggestion for the future development pattern of the city are proposed in the urban eco-planning of Zhoushan Island. The main strategies can be summarized in two aspects: one is to reduce the ecological footprint, the other is to increase the ecological supply. The conclusion is that the current population of Zhoushan Island is far beyond the optimum population size calculated by the ecological footprint model. Therefore, sustainable development should be the guidance for urban planning in Zhoushan Island, and a low-carbon development pattern for the city is advocated.

  17. Modeling pellet impact drilling process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalyov, A. V.; Ryabchikov, S. Ya; Isaev, Ye D.; Ulyanova, O. S.

    2016-03-01

    The paper describes pellet impact drilling which could be used to increase the drilling speed and the rate of penetration when drilling hard rocks. Pellet impact drilling implies rock destruction by metal pellets with high kinetic energy in the immediate vicinity of the earth formation encountered. The pellets are circulated in the bottom hole by a high velocity fluid jet, which is the principle component of the ejector pellet impact drill bit. The experiments conducted has allowed modeling the process of pellet impact drilling, which creates the scientific and methodological basis for engineering design of drilling operations under different geo-technical conditions.

  18. Automated experimentation in ecological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lurgi, Miguel; Robertson, David

    2011-05-09

    In ecological networks, natural communities are studied from a complex systems perspective by representing interactions among species within them in the form of a graph, which is in turn analysed using mathematical tools. Topological features encountered in complex networks have been proved to provide the systems they represent with interesting attributes such as robustness and stability, which in ecological systems translates into the ability of communities to resist perturbations of different kinds. A focus of research in community ecology is on understanding the mechanisms by which these complex networks of interactions among species in a community arise. We employ an agent-based approach to model ecological processes operating at the species' interaction level for the study of the emergence of organisation in ecological networks. We have designed protocols of interaction among agents in a multi-agent system based on ecological processes occurring at the interaction level between species in plant-animal mutualistic communities. Interaction models for agents coordination thus engineered facilitate the emergence of network features such as those found in ecological networks of interacting species, in our artificial societies of agents. Agent based models developed in this way facilitate the automation of the design an execution of simulation experiments that allow for the exploration of diverse behavioural mechanisms believed to be responsible for community organisation in ecological communities. This automated way of conducting experiments empowers the study of ecological networks by exploiting the expressive power of interaction models specification in agent systems.

  19. Characteristics of nursing professionals and the practice of ecologically sustainable actions in the medication processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia de Oliveira Furukawa

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objectives: to verify the correlation between the characteristics of professionals and the practice of sustainable actions in the medication processes in an ICU, and to determine if interventions such as training and awareness can promote sustainable practices performed by nursing staff in the hospital. Methods: before-and-after design study using Lean Six Sigma methodology, applied in an intensive care unit. Nursing staff were observed regarding the practice of ecologically sustainable actions during medication processes (n = 324 cases for each group (pre and post-intervention through a data collection instrument. The processes analyzed involved 99 professionals in the pre-intervention phase and 97 in the post-intervention phase. Data were analyzed quantitatively and the association of variables was accomplished by means of statistical inference, according to the nature of the related variables. Results: the education level was the only characteristic that showed to be relevant to an increase in sustainable practices, with a statistically significant difference (p = 0.002. When comparing before and after the intervention, there was an increase in environmentally friendly actions with statistically significant differences (p = 0.001. Conclusions: the results suggest that institutions should encourage and invest in formal education, as well as training of health professionals to promote sustainable practices in the hospital.

  20. Nutraceutical properties of flour and tortillas made with an ecological nixtamalization process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Méndez, Lilia Irene Rodríguez; Cárdenas, Juan de Dios Figueroa; Gómez, Minerva Ramos; Lagunas, Lilia Leticia Méndez

    2013-10-01

    The traditional nixtamalization (TN) process, used for obtaining maize-based products, negatively affects bioactive compounds because of its highly alkaline pH. Recently, an ecological nixtamalization (EN) process has been developed that retains the pericarp and maintains the nejayote (wastewater) within the acidic-neutral range. This study examines the effect of pH on the nutraceutical compounds (NC) of maize, such as polyphenolics and anthocyanins (ANT), as well as the effect on the antioxidant capacity (AC). The highest concentration of total phenolics (TP) in the maize kernel was found in the black and yellow genotypes, the highest concentration of ANT in the black genotypes, and the highest concentration of AC in the red and white genotypes. In the flour, TP levels were between 206 to 400 mg GA/100 g, ANT levels were 141 to 4107 mg cyanidin-3 glucoside/kg, and AC levels were 2544 to 3001 mg AA/kg. In tortillas, TP levels were 255 to 319 mg GA/100 g, ANT levels were 32 to 3420 mg cyanidin-3 glucoside/kg, and AC levels were from 1513 to 2695 mg AA/kg. The reduced loss of soluble solids, the pH, and the formation of compounds with proteins and carbohydrates from the EN process positively affected NC retention. © 2013 Institute of Food Technologists®

  1. Transition probabilities for general birth-death processes with applications in ecology, genetics, and evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Forrest W.; Suchard, Marc A.

    2011-01-01

    A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with n current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate λn and a particle dies with instantaneous rate μn. Currently no robust and efficient method exists to evaluate the finite-time transition probabilities in a general birth-death process with arbitrary birth and death rates. In this paper, we first revisit the theory of continued fractions to obtain expressions for the Laplace transforms of these transition probabilities and make explicit an important derivation connecting transition probabilities and continued fractions. We then develop an efficient algorithm for computing these probabilities that analyzes the error associated with approximations in the method. We demonstrate that this error-controlled method agrees with known solutions and outperforms previous approaches to computing these probabilities. Finally, we apply our novel method to several important problems in ecology, evolution, and genetics. PMID:21984359

  2. It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaas, Martin F; Reusch, Thorsten B H; Schmidt, Jörn O; Tahvonen, Olli; Voss, Rudi

    2016-01-01

    Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Ecological Integrated Model of Children of War: Individual and Social Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbedour, Salman; And Others

    1993-01-01

    This paper reviews the limited research on children and war and concludes that the dynamic interaction among five processes within an ecological framework is most important: (1) the child's psychobiological makeup, (2) disruption of the family unit, (3) breakdown of community, (4) ameliorating effects of culture, and (5) the intensity, suddenness,…

  4. Development of the Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed Flow Model (HEIFLOW): an application to the Heihe River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Zheng, C.; Han, F., Sr.

    2017-12-01

    Physically based and fully-distributed integrated hydrological models (IHMs) can quantitatively depict hydrological processes, both surface and subsurface, with sufficient spatial and temporal details. However, the complexity involved in pre-processing data and setting up models seriously hindered the wider application of IHMs in scientific research and management practice. This study introduces our design and development of Visual HEIFLOW, hereafter referred to as VHF, a comprehensive graphical data processing and modeling system for integrated hydrological simulation. The current version of VHF has been structured to accommodate an IHM named HEIFLOW (Hydrological-Ecological Integrated watershed-scale FLOW model). HEIFLOW is a model being developed by the authors, which has all typical elements of physically based and fully-distributed IHMs. It is based on GSFLOW, a representative integrated surface water-groundwater model developed by USGS. HEIFLOW provides several ecological modules that enable to simulate growth cycle of general vegetation and special plants (maize and populus euphratica). VHF incorporates and streamlines all key steps of the integrated modeling, and accommodates all types of GIS data necessary to hydrological simulation. It provides a GIS-based data processing framework to prepare an IHM for simulations, and has functionalities to flexibly display and modify model features (e.g., model grids, streams, boundary conditions, observational sites, etc.) and their associated data. It enables visualization and various spatio-temporal analyses of all model inputs and outputs at different scales (i.e., computing unit, sub-basin, basin, or user-defined spatial extent). The above system features, as well as many others, can significantly reduce the difficulty and time cost of building and using a complex IHM. The case study in the Heihe River Basin demonstrated the applicability of VHF for large scale integrated SW-GW modeling. Visualization and spatial

  5. Importance of ocean circulation in ecological modeling: An example from the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skogen, Morten D.; Moll, Andreas

    2005-09-01

    There is an increasing number of ecological models for the North Sea around. Skogen and Moll (2000) [Skogen, M.D., Moll, A. 2000. Interannual variability of the North Sea primary production: comparison from two model studies. Continental Shelf Research 20 (2), 129-151] compared the interannual variability of the North Sea primary production using two state-of-the-art ecological models, NORWECOM and ECOHAM1. Their conclusion was that the two models agreed on an annual mean primary production, its variability and the timing and size of the peak production. On the other hand, there was a low (even negative dependent of area) correlation in the production in different years between the two models. In the present work, these conclusions are brought further. To try to better understand the observed differences between the two models, the two ecological models are run in an identical physical setting. With such a set-up also the interannual variability between the two models is in agreement, and it is concluded that the single most important factor for a reliable modeling of phytoplankton and nutrient distributions and transports within the North Sea is a proper physical model.

  6. Integrated modelling in materials and process technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2008-01-01

    Integrated modelling of entire process sequences and the subsequent in-service conditions, and multiphysics modelling of the single process steps are areas that increasingly support optimisation of manufactured parts. In the present paper, three different examples of modelling manufacturing...... processes from the viewpoint of combined materials and process modelling are presented: solidification of thin walled ductile cast iron, integrated modelling of spray forming and multiphysics modelling of friction stir welding. The fourth example describes integrated modelling applied to a failure analysis...

  7. Ecological studies related to construction of the Defense Waste Processing Facility on the Savannah River Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pechmann, J.H.K.; Scott, D.E.; McGregor, J.H.; Estes, R.A.; Chazal, A.C.

    1993-02-01

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) was built on the Savannah River Site (SRS) during the mid-1980's. The Savannah River Ecology Laboratory (SREL) has completed 12 years of ecological studies related to the construction of the DWPF complex. Prior to construction, the 600-acre site (S-Area) contained a Carolina bay and the headwaters of a stream. Research conducted by the SREL has focused primarily on four questions related to these wetlands: (1) Prior to construction, what fauna and flora were present at the DWPF site and at similar, yet undisturbed, alternative sites (2) By comparing the Carolina bay at the DWPF site (Sun Bay) with an undisturbed control Carolina bay (Rainbow Bay), what effect is construction having on the organisms that inhabited the DWPF site (3) By comparing control streams with streams on the periphery of the DWPF site, what effect is construction having on the peripheral streams (4) How effective have efforts been to lessen the impacts of construction, both with respect to erosion control measures and the construction of refuge ponds'' as alternative breeding sites for amphibians that formerly bred at Sun Bay Through the long-term census-taking of biota at the DWPF site and Rainbow Bay, SREL has begun to evaluate the impact of construction on the biota and the effectiveness of mitigation efforts. Similarly, the effects of erosion from the DWPF site on the water quality of S-Area peripheral streams are being assessed. This research provides supporting data relevant to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969, the Endangered Species Act of 1973, Executive Orders 11988 (Floodplain Management) and 11990 (Protection of Wetlands), and United States Department of Energy (DOE) Guidelines for Compliance with Floodplain/Wetland Environmental Review Requirements (10CFR1022).

  8. Ecological processes for Environmental Impact Assessment in Coastal Waters; Engan no kankyo eikyo hyoka (EIA) eno seitaigakuteki apurochi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishikawa, Kimitoshi. [Environmental Assessment Dept., Tokyo (Japan)

    1999-03-25

    This paper focuses on a method for estimating adverse effects on natural environment by economic development in coastal waters in Japan. In particular, the most critical relations concerning the impact on marine organisms is pointed out and discussed according to an environmental impact assessment. Relations between environmental impact assessment and marine organisms needs a quantitative ecological approach in order to succeed in sustainable development of coastal waters management. Recently, the Environment Agency of Japan pointed out the unreliability and the theme on accuracy and the staff for biology and ecology in the environmental impact study. Ecological response to environmental impact occurs in a wide spectrum of physiological and biological and biological functions. Therefore biological monitoring measures must correspond to the given time-space scale of natural mechanisms. For the evaluation of environmental impact, it is desire able to develop of experimental technics and collect biological and ecological basic data for the object. I Reconstructing the following: 1. Reconstructing a clearlistic EIA process by EIA agencies and practitioners, 2. Scorping the biological and ecological issues by EIA professionals, 3. Using the current computer technology, 4. Considering monitoring systems over scales of time and space for the ecological target and 5. Making available to public all monitoring data and reports of EIA. (author)

  9. Collapse models and perceptual processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghirardi, Gian Carlo; Romano, Raffaele

    2014-01-01

    Theories including a collapse mechanism have been presented various years ago. They are based on a modification of standard quantum mechanics in which nonlinear and stochastic terms are added to the evolution equation. Their principal merits derive from the fact that they are mathematically precise schemes accounting, on the basis of a unique universal dynamical principle, both for the quantum behavior of microscopic systems as well as for the reduction associated to measurement processes and for the classical behavior of macroscopic objects. Since such theories qualify themselves not as new interpretations but as modifications of the standard theory they can be, in principle, tested against quantum mechanics. Recently, various investigations identifying possible crucial test have been discussed. In spite of the extreme difficulty to perform such tests it seems that recent technological developments allow at least to put precise limits on the parameters characterizing the modifications of the evolution equation. Here we will simply mention some of the recent investigations in this direction, while we will mainly concentrate our attention to the way in which collapse theories account for definite perceptual process. The differences between the case of reductions induced by perceptions and those related to measurement procedures by means of standard macroscopic devices will be discussed. On this basis, we suggest a precise experimental test of collapse theories involving conscious observers. We make plausible, by discussing in detail a toy model, that the modified dynamics can give rise to quite small but systematic errors in the visual perceptual process.

  10. Hillslope runoff processes and models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkby, Mike

    1988-07-01

    Hillslope hydrology is concerned with the partition of precipitation as it passes through the vegetation and soil between overland flow and subsurface flow. Flow follows routes which attenuate and delay the flow to different extents, so that a knowledge of the relevant mechanisms is important. In the 1960s and 1970s, hillslope hydrology developed as a distinct topic through the application of new field observations to develop a generation of physically based forecasting models. In its short history, theory has continually been overturned by field observation. Thus the current tendency, particularly among temperate zone hydrologists, to dismiss all Hortonian overland flow as a myth, is now being corrected by a number of significant field studies which reveal the great range in both climatic and hillslope conditions. Some recent models have generally attempted to simplify the processes acting, for example including only vertical unsaturated flow and lateral saturated flows. Others explicitly forecast partial or contributing areas. With hindsight, the most complete and distributed models have generally shown little forecasting advantage over simpler approaches, perhaps trending towards reliable models which can run on desk top microcomputers. The variety now being recognised in hillslope hydrological responses should also lead to models which take account of more complex interactions, even if initially with a less secure physical and mathematical basis than the Richards equation. In particular, there is a need to respond to the variety of climatic responses, and to spatial variability on and beneath the surface, including the role of seepage macropores and pipes which call into question whether the hillside can be treated as a Darcian flow system.

  11. Forest Productivity and Diversity: Using Ecological Theory and Landscape Models to Guide Sustainable Forest Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huston, M.A.

    1998-11-01

    Sustainable forest management requires maintaining or increasing ecosystem productivity, while preserving or restoring natural levels of biodiversity. Application of general concepts from ecological theory, along with use of mechanistic, landscape-based computer models, can contribute to the successful achievement of both of these objectives. Ecological theories based on the energetics and dynamics of populations can be used to predict the general distribution of individual species, the diversity of different types of species, ecosystem process rates and pool sizes, and patterns of spatial and temporal heterogeneity over a broad range of environmental conditions. This approach requires subdivision of total biodiversity into functional types of organisms, primarily because different types of organisms respond very differently to the spatial and temporal variation of environmental conditions on landscapes. The diversity of species of the same functional type (particularly among plants) tends to be highest at relatively low levels of net primary productivity, while the total number of different functional types (particularly among animals) tends to be highest at high levels of productivity (e.g., site index or potential net primary productivity). In general, the diversity of animals at higher trophic levels (e.g., predators) reaches its maximum at much higher levels of productivity than the diversity of lower trophic levels (e.g., plants). This means that a single environment cannot support high diversity of all types of organisms. Within the framework of the general patterns described above, the distributions, population dynamics, and diversity of organisms in specific regions can be predicted more precisely using a combination of computer simulation models and GIS data based on satellite information and ground surveys. Biophysical models that use information on soil properties, climate, and hydrology have been developed to predict how the abundance and spatial

  12. Understanding wider environmental influences on mentoring: Towards an ecological model of mentoring in academic medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Sambunjak

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Mentoring is a complex developmental relationship that contributes to individual growth and career advancement in different areas of human activity, including academic medicine. This article describes a broader environmental milieux in which mentoring occurs and considers the ways in which the environmental factors may affect the process and outcomes of mentoring. An ecological model of mentoring is proposed that takes into account various factors broadly operating at three contextual levels. The first is societal or “macro” level, which implies cultural, economic, and political factors. The second is institutional or “meso” level, consisting of a system-related factors such as field and discipline characteristics, and government policies, and b organization-related factors such as mentoring climate, reward structure, and work design. The third contextual level relates to intrapersonal and interpersonal characteristics of mentor-mentee dyads. If mentoring dyad is viewed as the focal point, societal and institutional levels may be labeled as “external”, and personal level as “internal”. The conceptual diversity and methodological challenges in the study of mentoring need to be acknowledged, but should not be an excuse to leave the external contextual elements out of the researchers’ horizon, as they inevitably shape and modify the mentoring relationships. Conclusion. Model presented in this article offers a holistic view of mentoring in academic medicine that may help one comprehend and appreciate the complexity of influences on mentoring, and inform the future research agenda on this important topic.

  13. Business Process Modelling for Measuring Quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heidari, F.; Loucopoulos, P.; Brazier, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Business process modelling languages facilitate presentation, communication and analysis of business processes with different stakeholders. This paper proposes an approach that drives specification and measurement of quality requirements and in doing so relies on business process models as

  14. Exploring the Social Ecological Model Based on National Student Achievements: Extracting Educational Leaders' Role

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira-Lishchinsky, Orly; Ben-Amram, Miri

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to reexamine the effect of internal school factors such as school violence and class size, and external school factors such as family socio-economic resources on student math achievements, based on the social ecological model, eliciting an integrative approach. Data were collected from an Israeli national database,…

  15. Scale of association: hierarchical linear models and the measurement of ecological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sean M. McMahon; Jeffrey M. Diez

    2007-01-01

    A fundamental challenge to understanding patterns in ecological systems lies in employing methods that can analyse, test and draw inference from measured associations between variables across scales. Hierarchical linear models (HLM) use advanced estimation algorithms to measure regression relationships and variance-covariance parameters in hierarchically structured...

  16. On the missing link in ecology: improving communication between modellers and experimentalists

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heuschele, Jan; Ekvall, Mikael T.; Mariani, Patrizio

    2017-01-01

    limit the usage of empirical data and thereby the impact of ecological studies. We discuss ways to advance collaboration; how to improve communication and the design of experiments; and the sharing of data. We hope to start a much-needed conversation between modellers and experimentalists, to further...

  17. Application of spatial models to the stopover ecology of trans-Gulf migrants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theodore R. Simons; Scott M. Pearson; Frank R. Moore

    2000-01-01

    Studies at migratory stopover sites along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico are providing an understanding of how weather, habitat, and energetic factors combine to shape the stopover ecology of trans-Gulf migrants. We are coupling this understanding with analyses of landscape-level patterns of habitat availability by using spatially explicit models to simulate...

  18. Optimising the management of complex dynamic ecosystems. An ecological-economic modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hein, L.G.

    2005-01-01

    Keywords: ecological-economic modelling; ecosystem services; resource use; efficient; sustainability; wetlands, rangelands.

  19. Application of the Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model to Ecological Site Descriptions and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    The utility of Ecological Site Descriptions (ESDs) and State-and-Transition Models (STMs) concepts in guiding rangeland management hinges on their ability to accurately describe and predict community dynamics and the associated consequences. For many rangeland ecosystems, plant community dynamics ar...

  20. The painted turtle, Chrysemys picta: a model system for vertebrate evolution, ecology, and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenzuela, Nicole

    2009-07-01

    Painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) are representatives of a vertebrate clade whose biology and phylogenetic position hold a key to our understanding of fundamental aspects of vertebrate evolution. These features make them an ideal emerging model system. Extensive ecological and physiological research provide the context in which to place new research advances in evolutionary genetics, genomics, evolutionary developmental biology, and ecological developmental biology which are enabled by current resources, such as a bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) library of C. picta, and the imminent development of additional ones such as genome sequences and cDNA and expressed sequence tag (EST) libraries. This integrative approach will allow the research community to continue making advances to provide functional and evolutionary explanations for the lability of biological traits found not only among reptiles but vertebrates in general. Moreover, because humans and reptiles share a common ancestor, and given the ease of using nonplacental vertebrates in experimental biology compared with mammalian embryos, painted turtles are also an emerging model system for biomedical research. For example, painted turtles have been studied to understand many biological responses to overwintering and anoxia, as potential sentinels for environmental xenobiotics, and as a model to decipher the ecology and evolution of sexual development and reproduction. Thus, painted turtles are an excellent reptilian model system for studies with human health, environmental, ecological, and evolutionary significance.

  1. An Ecological Risk Model for Early Childhood Anxiety: The Importance of Early Child Symptoms and Temperament

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mian, Nicholas D.; Wainwright, Laurel; Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J.; Carter, Alice S.

    2011-01-01

    Childhood anxiety is impairing and associated with later emotional disorders. Studying risk factors for child anxiety may allow earlier identification of at-risk children for prevention efforts. This study applied an ecological risk model to address how early childhood anxiety symptoms, child temperament, maternal anxiety and depression symptoms,…

  2. Beyond Cultural Relativism: An Ecological Model for Rhetorical Ethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackin, Jim

    A model intended to overcome the cultural relativism of determining what is an ethical act draws an analogy to environmental studies. Beginning with the concepts of "telos" (final purpose) and "archai" (priority), the notion of an ecosystem of ethics avoids limitation to a particular historical definition of good. Since the…

  3. A synthesis of dominant ecological processes in intensive shrimp ponds and adjacent coastal environments in NE Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burford, M.A.; Costanzo, S.D.; Dennison, W.C.; Jackson, C.J.; Jones, A.B.; McKinnon, A.D.; Preston, N.P.; Trott, L.A.

    2003-01-01

    One of the key environmental concerns about shrimp farming is the discharge of waters with high levels of nutrients and suspended solids into adjacent waterways. In this paper we synthesize the results of our multidisciplinary research linking ecological processes in intensive shrimp ponds with their downstream impacts in tidal, mangrove-lined creeks. The incorporation of process measurements and bioindicators, in addition to water quality measurements, improved our understanding of the effect of shrimp farm discharges on the ecological health of the receiving water bodies. Changes in water quality parameters were an oversimplification of the ecological effects of water discharges, and use of key measures including primary production rates, phytoplankton responses to nutrients, community shifts in zooplankton and δ 15 N ratios in marine plants have the potential to provide more integrated and robust measures. Ultimately, reduction in nutrient discharges is most likely to ensure the future sustainability of the industry

  4. Landscape Ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Andreas Aagaard; Brandt, Jesper; Svenningsen, Stig Roar

    2017-01-01

    , and the ecological significance of the patterns which are generated by such processes. In landscape ecology, perspectives drawn from existing academic disciplines are integrated based on a common, spatially explicit mode of analysis developed from classical holistic geography, emphasizing spatial and landscape...... to translate positivist readings of the environment and hermeneutical perspectives on socioecological interaction into a common framework or terminology....

  5. Effect of coffee processing on ecological integrity of river systems in Jimma zone, southwestern Ethiopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Legesse, W.

    2005-01-01

    Jimma Zone in Southwestern Ethiopia is known for its coffee production and the landscape is dotted by a number of coffee processing industries. In order to assess the effect of coffee wastewater on the ecological integrity of the receiving water bodies, a longitudinal study has been initiated in January 2003 and is still in progress. The preliminary results of physicochemical parameters such as BOD (Biochemical Oxygen Demand) indicated that the coffee effluent is characterized by a remarkable polluting potential during the wet coffee-processing season. In general, a corresponding decline of bottom dwelling river fauna has been noted in many sampling locations. If business-as-usual scenario is followed, the economic gains accrued, as a result of coffee export, will be undone due to the ensuing water quality degradation and aquatic ecosystem disturbance. Although further study is required to fix the problem, provision of intervention strategies appear to be mandatory in order to avert quality deterioration of the rivers and streams flowing through the coffee producing region. (author)

  6. Is the phototransformation of pharmaceuticals a natural purification process that decreases ecological and human health risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiao-Huan; Lin, Angela Yu-Chen

    2014-01-01

    Sunlight photodegradation has long been considered a significant process in lowering the concentrations of pharmaceuticals in surface waters and thus decreasing the ecological risk. For the first time, this study identified the significance of investigating the environmental photodegradation of a pharmaceutical residue mixture (rather than a single compound) and the associated toxicity of transformation byproducts in environmental waters, including rivers, hospital wastewaters, and effluents from wastewater treatment plants and pharmaceutical production facilities. Pharmaceuticals undergo phototransformation rather than mineralization (11–23% in 34 h). Pharmaceutical mixtures could possibly act as dissolved organic matter for each individual compound and subsequently affect the photolysis rates. The increased toxicity of irradiated pharmaceutical mixtures challenges the validity of the current understanding of sunlight photolysis. The implications of this work suggest that current knowledge concerning the occurrence, natural attenuation, ecotoxicity, and human health risks of pharmaceuticals is far from complete; photolysis is not necessarily a purification process. -- Highlights: • Pharmaceutical mixtures could possibly act as DOMs for each other. • Pharmaceuticals underwent merely phototransformation rather than mineralization. • Increased toxicity from photo byproducts associated with the pharmaceutical mixture. • Phototransformation does not necessary mitigate the risk to human and the ecosystem. -- Transformation byproducts associated with a pharmaceutical mixture could be more toxic, and phototransformation does not necessary mitigate the risk to humans and the ecosystem

  7. Model Configuration and Innovative Design of College Students’ Ecological Civilization Construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chengwen, Yang

    2018-02-01

    This study is based on Marxist eco-civilization thought, combining with Eco management theory, puts forward solutions for college students’ ecological civilization construction. The paper based on the perspective of ecological management theory to analyze the main elements of eco-civilization construction of college students, mainly including five categories. In view of above-mentioned analyze, constructed the model of college students’ eco-civilization which is based on the theory of eco-management, and put forward on concrete methods to improve it.

  8. Ecological risk estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartell, S.M.; Gardner, R.H.; O'Neill, R.V.

    1992-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment, the process that evaluates the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur or are occurring as a result of exposure to one or more stressors, is being developed by the US EPA as a tool for decision making. This book presents one approach to risk assessment-that of applying laboratory toxicity data within an ecosystem model to predict the potential ecological consequences of toxic chemicals. Both Standard Water Column Model (SWACOM), using zooplankton and fish, and Monte Carlo simulations are discussed in detail, along with quantitative explanations for many responses. Simplifying assumptions are explicitly presented. The final chapter discusses strengths, weaknesses, and future directions of the approach. The book is appropriate for anyone who does or uses ecological risk assessment methodologies

  9. Local Geostatistical Models and Big Data in Hydrological and Ecological Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristopulos, Dionissios

    2015-04-01

    The advent of the big data era creates new opportunities for environmental and ecological modelling but also presents significant challenges. The availability of remote sensing images and low-cost wireless sensor networks implies that spatiotemporal environmental data to cover larger spatial domains at higher spatial and temporal resolution for longer time windows. Handling such voluminous data presents several technical and scientific challenges. In particular, the geostatistical methods used to process spatiotemporal data need to overcome the dimensionality curse associated with the need to store and invert large covariance matrices. There are various mathematical approaches for addressing the dimensionality problem, including change of basis, dimensionality reduction, hierarchical schemes, and local approximations. We present a Stochastic Local Interaction (SLI) model that can be used to model local correlations in spatial data. SLI is a random field model suitable for data on discrete supports (i.e., regular lattices or irregular sampling grids). The degree of localization is determined by means of kernel functions and appropriate bandwidths. The strength of the correlations is determined by means of coefficients. In the "plain vanilla" version the parameter set involves scale and rigidity coefficients as well as a characteristic length. The latter determines in connection with the rigidity coefficient the correlation length of the random field. The SLI model is based on statistical field theory and extends previous research on Spartan spatial random fields [2,3] from continuum spaces to explicitly discrete supports. The SLI kernel functions employ adaptive bandwidths learned from the sampling spatial distribution [1]. The SLI precision matrix is expressed explicitly in terms of the model parameter and the kernel function. Hence, covariance matrix inversion is not necessary for parameter inference that is based on leave-one-out cross validation. This property

  10. A methodology for eliciting, representing, and analysing stakeholder knowledge for decision making on complex socio-ecological systems: From cognitive maps to agent-based models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    El-Sawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H.A.; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation

  11. Measuring Children's Environmental Attitudes and Values in Northwest Mexico: Validating a Modified Version of Measures to Test the Model of Ecological Values (2-MEV)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneller, A. J.; Johnson, B.; Bogner, F. X.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes the validation process of measuring children's attitudes and values toward the environment within a Mexican sample. We applied the Model of Ecological Values (2-MEV), which has been shown to be valid and reliable in 20 countries, including one Spanish speaking culture. Items were initially modified to fit the regional dialect,…

  12. Radiation, ecology and the invalid LNT model: the evolutionary imperative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Peter A

    2006-09-27

    Metabolic and energetic efficiency, and hence fitness of organisms to survive, should be maximal in their habitats. This tenet of evolutionary biology invalidates the linear-no threshold (LNT) model for the risk consequences of environmental agents. Hormesis in response to selection for maximum metabolic and energetic efficiency, or minimum metabolic imbalance, to adapt to a stressed world dominated by oxidative stress should therefore be universal. Radiation hormetic zones extending substantially beyond common background levels, can be explained by metabolic interactions among multiple abiotic stresses. Demographic and experimental data are mainly in accord with this expectation. Therefore, non-linearity becomes the primary model for assessing risks from low-dose ionizing radiation. This is the evolutionary imperative upon which risk assessment for radiation should be based.

  13. Radiation, Ecology and the Invalid LNT Model: The Evolutionary Imperative

    OpenAIRE

    Parsons, Peter A.

    2006-01-01

    Metabolic and energetic efficiency, and hence fitness of organisms to survive, should be maximal in their habitats. This tenet of evolutionary biology invalidates the linear-nothreshold (LNT) model for the risk consequences of environmental agents. Hormesis in response to selection for maximum metabolic and energetic efficiency, or minimum metabolic imbalance, to adapt to a stressed world dominated by oxidative stress should therefore be universal. Radiation hormetic zones extending substanti...

  14. An ecological response model for the Cache la Poudre River through Fort Collins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanahan, Jennifer; Baker, Daniel; Bledsoe, Brian P.; Poff, LeRoy; Merritt, David M.; Bestgen, Kevin R.; Auble, Gregor T.; Kondratieff, Boris C.; Stokes, John; Lorie, Mark; Sanderson, John

    2014-01-01

    The Poudre River Ecological Response Model (ERM) is a collaborative effort initiated by the City of Fort Collins and a team of nine river scientists to provide the City with a tool to improve its understanding of the past, present, and likely future conditions of the Cache la Poudre River ecosystem. The overall ecosystem condition is described through the measurement of key ecological indicators such as shape and character of the stream channel and banks, streamside plant communities and floodplain wetlands, aquatic vegetation and insects, and fishes, both coolwater trout and warmwater native species. The 13- mile-long study area of the Poudre River flows through Fort Collins, Colorado, and is located in an ecological transition zone between the upstream, cold-water, steep-gradient system in the Front Range of the Southern Rocky Mountains and the downstream, warm-water, low-gradient reach in the Colorado high plains.

  15. From patterns to causal understanding: Structural equation modeling (SEM) in soil ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhauer, Nico; Powell, Jeff R; Grace, James B.; Bowker, Matthew A.

    2015-01-01

    In this perspectives paper we highlight a heretofore underused statistical method in soil ecological research, structural equation modeling (SEM). SEM is commonly used in the general ecological literature to develop causal understanding from observational data, but has been more slowly adopted by soil ecologists. We provide some basic information on the many advantages and possibilities associated with using SEM and provide some examples of how SEM can be used by soil ecologists to shift focus from describing patterns to developing causal understanding and inspiring new types of experimental tests. SEM is a promising tool to aid the growth of soil ecology as a discipline, particularly by supporting research that is increasingly hypothesis-driven and interdisciplinary, thus shining light into the black box of interactions belowground.

  16. Watersheds in Baltimore, Maryland: understanding and application of integrated ecological and social processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steward T.A. Pickett; Kenneth T. Belt; Michael F. Galvin; Peter M. Groffman; J. Morgan Grove; Donald C. Outen; Richard V. Pouyat; William P. Stack; Mary L. Cadenasso

    2007-01-01

    The Water and Watersheds program has made significant and lasting contributions to the basic understanding of the complex ecological system of Baltimore, MD. Funded at roughly the same time as the urban Long- Term Ecological Research (LTER) project in Baltimore, the Water and Watersheds grant and the LTER grant together established the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES)...

  17. Life and death of Picea abies after bark-beetle outbreak: ecological processes driving seedling recruitment

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Macek, Martin; Wild, Jan; Kopecký, Martin; Červenka, J.; Svoboda, M.; Zenáhlíková, J.; Brůna, Josef; Mosandl, R.; Fischer, A.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 27, č. 1 (2017), s. 156-167 ISSN 1051-0761 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP504/10/0843 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : advance regeneration * growth function * Ips typographus * mortality * norway spruce Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 4.314, year: 2016

  18. Developing ecological site and state-and-transition models for grazed riparian pastures at Tejon Ranch, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felix P. Ratcliff; James Bartolome; Michele Hammond; Sheri Spiegal; Michael White

    2015-01-01

    Ecological site descriptions and associated state-and-transition models are useful tools for understanding the variable effects of management and environment on range resources. Models for woody riparian sites have yet to be fully developed. At Tejon Ranch, in the southern San Joaquin Valley of California, we are using ecological site theory to investigate the role of...

  19. Functional genetics of intraspecific ecological interactions in Arabidopsis thaliana

    OpenAIRE

    Wolf, Jason B.; Mutic, Joshua J.; Kover, Paula X.

    2011-01-01

    Studying the genetic basis of traits involved in ecological interactions is a fundamental part of elucidating the connections between evolutionary and ecological processes. Such knowledge allows one to link genetic models of trait evolution with ecological models describing interactions within and between species. Previous work has shown that connections between genetic and ecological processes in Arabidopsis thaliana may be mediated by the fact that quantitative trait loci (QTL) with ‘direct...

  20. Hyporheic flow and transport processes: mechanisms, models, and biogeochemical implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boano, Fulvio; Harvey, Judson W.; Marion, Andrea; Packman, Aaron I.; Revelli, Roberto; Ridolfi, Luca; Anders, Wörman

    2014-01-01

    Fifty years of hyporheic zone research have shown the important role played by the hyporheic zone as an interface between groundwater and surface waters. However, it is only in the last two decades that what began as an empirical science has become a mechanistic science devoted to modeling studies of the complex fluid dynamical and biogeochemical mechanisms occurring in the hyporheic zone. These efforts have led to the picture of surface-subsurface water interactions as regulators of the form and function of fluvial ecosystems. Rather than being isolated systems, surface water bodies continuously interact with the subsurface. Exploration of hyporheic zone processes has led to a new appreciation of their wide reaching consequences for water quality and stream ecology. Modern research aims toward a unified approach, in which processes occurring in the hyporheic zone are key elements for the appreciation, management, and restoration of the whole river environment. In this unifying context, this review summarizes results from modeling studies and field observations about flow and transport processes in the hyporheic zone and describes the theories proposed in hydrology and fluid dynamics developed to quantitatively model and predict the hyporheic transport of water, heat, and dissolved and suspended compounds from sediment grain scale up to the watershed scale. The implications of these processes for stream biogeochemistry and ecology are also discussed."

  1. Influencing adaptation processes on the Australian rangelands for social and ecological resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadine A. Marshall

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Resource users require the capacity to cope and adapt to climate changes affecting resource condition if they, and their industries, are to remain viable. Understanding individual-scale responses to a changing climate will be an important component of designing well-targeted, broad-scale strategies and policies. Because of the interdependencies between people and ecosystems, understanding and supporting resilience of resource-dependent people may be as important an aspect of effective resource management as managing the resilience of ecological components. We refer to the northern Australian rangelands as an example of a system that is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and look for ways to enhance the resilience of the system. Vulnerability of the social system comprises elements of adaptive capacity and sensitivity to change (resource dependency as well as exposure, which is not examined here. We assessed the adaptive capacity of 240 cattle producers, using four established dimensions, and investigated the association between adaptive capacity and climate sensitivity (or resource dependency as measured through 14 established dimensions. We found that occupational identity, employability, networks, strategic approach, environmental awareness, dynamic resource use, and use of technology were all positively correlated with at least one dimension of adaptive capacity and that place attachment was negatively correlated with adaptive capacity. These results suggest that adaptation processes could be influenced by focusing on adaptive capacity and these aspects of climate sensitivity. Managing the resilience of individuals is critical to processes of adaptation at higher levels and needs greater attention if adaptation processes are to be shaped and influenced.

  2. Ecological and Social Dynamics in Simple Models of Ecosystem Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available Simulation models were developed to explore and illustrate dynamics of socioecological systems. The ecosystem is a lake subject to phosphorus pollution. Phosphorus flows from agriculture to upland soils, to surface waters, where it cycles between water and sediments. The ecosystem is multistable, and moves among domains of attraction depending on the history of pollutant inputs. The alternative states yield different economic benefits. Agents form expectations about ecosystem dynamics, markets, and/or the actions of managers, and choose levels of pollutant inputs accordingly. Agents have heterogeneous beliefs and/or access to information. Their aggregate behavior determines the total rate of pollutant input. As the ecosystem changes, agents update their beliefs and expectations about the world they co-create, and modify their actions accordingly. For a wide range of scenarios, we observe irregular oscillations among ecosystem states and patterns of agent behavior. These oscillations resemble some features of the adaptive cycle of panarchy theory.

  3. Properties of spatial Cox process models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper

    Probabilistic properties of Cox processes of relevance for statistical modelling and inference are studied. Particularly, we study the most important classes of Cox processes, including log Gaussian Cox processes, shot noise Cox processes, and permanent Cox processes. We consider moment properties...... and point process operations such as thinning, displacements, and superpositioning. We also discuss how to simulate specific Cox processes....

  4. Developing engineering processes through integrated modelling of product and process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jeppe Bjerrum; Hvam, Lars

    2012-01-01

    This article aims at developing an operational tool for integrated modelling of product assortments and engineering processes in companies making customer specific products. Integrating a product model in the design of engineering processes will provide a deeper understanding of the engineering...... activities as well as insight into how product features affect the engineering processes. The article suggests possible ways of integrating models of products with models of engineering processes. The models have been tested and further developed in an action research study carried out in collaboration...... with a major international engineering company....

  5. Automatic extraction of process categories from process model collections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malinova, M.; Dijkman, R.M.; Mendling, J.; Lohmann, N.; Song, M.; Wohed, P.

    2014-01-01

    Many organizations build up their business process management activities in an incremental way. As a result, there is no overarching structure defined at the beginning. However, as business process modeling initiatives often yield hundreds to thousands of process models, there is a growing need for

  6. Economic and ecological impacts of bioenergy crop production—a modeling approach applied in Southwestern Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans-Georg Schwarz-v. Raumer

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers scenarios of cultivating energy crops in the German Federal State of Baden-Württemberg to identify potentials and limitations of a sustainable bioenergy production. Trade-offs are analyzed among income and production structure in agriculture, bioenergy crop production, greenhouse gas emissions, and the interests of soil, water and species habitat protection. An integrated modelling approach (IMA was implemented coupling ecological and economic models in a model chain. IMA combines the Economic Farm Emission Model (EFEM; key input: parameter sets on farm production activities, the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model (EPIC; key input: parameter sets on environmental cropping effects and GIS geo-processing models. EFEM is a supply model that maximizes total gross margins on farm level with simultaneous calculation of greenhouse gas emission from agriculture production. Calculations by EPIC result in estimates for soil erosion by water, nitrate leaching, Soil Organic Carbon and greenhouse gas emissions from soil. GIS routines provide land suitability analyses, scenario settings concerning nature conservation and habitat models for target species and help to enable spatial explicit results. The model chain is used to calculate scenarios representing different intensities of energy crop cultivation. To design scenarios which are detailed and in step to practice, comprehensive data research as well as fact and effect analyses were carried out. The scenarios indicate that, not in general but when considering specific farm types, energy crop share extremely increases if not restricted and leads to an increase in income. If so this leads to significant increase in soil erosion by water, nitrate leaching and greenhouse gas emissions. It has to be expected that an extension of nature conservation leads to an intensification of the remaining grassland and of the arable land, which were not part of nature conservation measures

  7. Dynamically linking economic models to ecological condition for coastal zone management: Application to sustainable tourism planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvarskas, Anthony

    2017-03-01

    While the development of the tourism industry can bring economic benefits to an area, it is important to consider the long-run impact of the industry on a given location. Particularly when the tourism industry relies upon a certain ecological state, those weighing different development options need to consider the long-run impacts of increased tourist numbers upon measures of ecological condition. This paper presents one approach for linking a model of recreational visitor behavior with an ecological model that estimates the impact of the increased visitors upon the environment. Two simulations were run for the model using initial parameters available from survey data and water quality data for beach locations in Croatia. Results suggest that the resilience of a given tourist location to the changes brought by increasing tourism numbers is important in determining its long-run sustainability. Further work should investigate additional model components, including the tourism industry, refinement of the relationships assumed by the model, and application of the proposed model in additional areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Influence of Reclamation Process on the Ecological Quality of Reclaim Sand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dereń M.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, there were presented results of research on influence of reclamation process on the ecological quality of reclaim sand with furan resin used in nonferrous foundry. The quality of reclaimed sand is mainly define by two group of chemical substances from elution of reclaimed sand: Dissolves Organic Carbon (DOC and Total Dissolves Solids (TDS. Reclaimed sand used in test was prepared in experimental thermal reclaimer and mechanical vibration reclaimer REGMAS installed in Faculty of Foundry Engineering at University Of Science and Technology in Krakow. The reference point is molding sand shaking out and crumble in jaw crusher. Test of elution was made in accredited laboratory in Center For Research and Environmental Control in Katowice up to the standard with Dissolves Organic Carbon (DOC - PN-EN 1484:1999; Total Dissolves Solids (TDS - PN-EN 15216:2010. The standard for elution test is PN-EN 12457- 4:2006. Except that we were made loss of ignition test, to check how many resin was rest on sand grains.

  9. NEON's Mobile Deployment Platform: A research tool for integrating ecological processes across scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanclements, M.

    2016-12-01

    Here we provide an update on construction of the five NEON Mobile Deployment Platforms (MDPs) as well as a description of the infrastructure and sensors available to researchers in the near future. Additionally, we include information (i.e. timelines and procedures) on requesting MDPs for PI led projects. The MDPs will provide the means to observe stochastic or spatially important events, gradients, or quantities that cannot be reliably observed using fixed location sampling (e.g. fires and floods). Due to the transient temporal and spatial nature of such events, the MDPs are designed to accommodate rapid deployment for time periods up to 1 year. Broadly, the MDPs are comprised of infrastructure and instrumentation capable of functioning individually or in conjunction with one another to support observations of ecological change, as well as education, training and outreach. More specifically, the MDPs include the capability to make tower based measures of ecosystem exchange, radiation, and precipitation in conjunction with baseline soils data such as CO2 flux, and soil temperature and moisture. An aquatics module is also available with the MDP to facilitate research integrating terrestrial and aquatic processes. Ultimately, the NEON MDPs provides a tool for linking PI led research to the continental scale data sets collected by NEON.

  10. Natural radionuclides in soils of a forest fragment of Atlantic Forest under ecological restoration process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferreira, F.S.; Lira, M.B.; Souza, E.M.; França, E.J.

    2017-01-01

    The natural radioactive isotopes come from the radioactive series of the 238 U (Uranium Series), the 235 U (Actinium Series) and the 232 Th (Thorium Series) series, or they can occur in isolation as is the case with the 40 K. Primordial radionuclides such as 40 K, 232 Th, 235 U and 238 U exist since the formation of the earth, being found in appreciable amounts in nature and in some cases may present a mass activity above the acceptable of environmental radiation. The objective of this work was to evaluate the mass activity of 40 K, 226 Ra and 228 Ra in the soils of a fragment of Atlantic Forest under ecological restoration process located in the Municipality of Paulista, PE, Brazil. Soil samples (0 - 15 cm) were collected under the projection of the treetops of the most abundant trees in the region. After drying and comminution, analytical portions of 40 g were transferred to polyethylene petri dishes, sealed and stored for 30 days to ensure secular equilibrium. Radioactivity was quantified by High Resolution Gamma Spectrometry - EGAR. The mean physical activities of 40 K, 226 Ra and 228 Ra were 12, 15 and 20 Bq kg -1 , respectively, for the surface soil of the Parque Natural Municipal Mata do Frio. The values found were lower than those found in mangroves in the state of Pernambuco and those considered normal for soils worldwide

  11. Modeling of the ecological niches of the anopheles spp in Ecuador by the use of geo-informatic tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Oswaldo; Rosas, Pablo; Moreno, Wilson; Toulkeridis, Theofilos

    2017-06-01

    Ecuador in the northwestern edge of South America is struggling by vector-borne diseases with an endemic-epidemic behavior leading to an enormous public health problem. Malaria, which has a cyclicality in its dynamics, is closely related to climatic, ecological and socio-economic phenomena. The main objective of this research has been to compare three different prediction species models, the so-called Maxent, logistic regression and multi criteria evaluation with fuzzy logic, in order to determine the model which best describes the ecological niche of the Anopheles spp species, which transmits malaria within Ecuador. After performing a detailed data collection and data processing, we applied the mentioned models and validated them with a statistical analysis in order to discover that the Maxent model has been the model that best defines the distribution of Anopheles spp within the territory. The determined sites, which are of high strategic value and important for the increasing national development, will now be able to initiate preventive countermeasures based on this study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Forensic Entomology: Evaluating Uncertainty Associated With Postmortem Interval (PMI) Estimates With Ecological Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faris, A M; Wang, H-H; Tarone, A M; Grant, W E

    2016-05-31

    Estimates of insect age can be informative in death investigations and, when certain assumptions are met, can be useful for estimating the postmortem interval (PMI). Currently, the accuracy and precision of PMI estimates is unknown, as error can arise from sources of variation such as measurement error, environmental variation, or genetic variation. Ecological models are an abstract, mathematical representation of an ecological system that can make predictions about the dynamics of the real system. To quantify the variation associated with the pre-appearance interval (PAI), we developed an ecological model that simulates the colonization of vertebrate remains by Cochliomyia macellaria (Fabricius) (Diptera: Calliphoridae), a primary colonizer in the southern United States. The model is based on a development data set derived from a local population and represents the uncertainty in local temperature variability to address PMI estimates at local sites. After a PMI estimate is calculated for each individual, the model calculates the maximum, minimum, and mean PMI, as well as the range and standard deviation for stadia collected. The model framework presented here is one manner by which errors in PMI estimates can be addressed in court when no empirical data are available for the parameter of interest. We show that PAI is a potential important source of error and that an ecological model is one way to evaluate its impact. Such models can be re-parameterized with any development data set, PAI function, temperature regime, assumption of interest, etc., to estimate PMI and quantify uncertainty that arises from specific prediction systems. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Microbial ecology-based methods to characterize the bacterial communities of non-model insects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prosdocimi, Erica M; Mapelli, Francesca; Gonella, Elena; Borin, Sara; Crotti, Elena

    2015-12-01

    Among the animals of the Kingdom Animalia, insects are unparalleled for their widespread diffusion, diversity and number of occupied ecological niches. In recent years they have raised researcher interest not only because of their importance as human and agricultural pests, disease vectors and as useful breeding species (e.g. honeybee and silkworm), but also because of their suitability as animal models. It is now fully recognized that microorganisms form symbiotic relationships with insects, influencing their survival, fitness, development, mating habits and the immune system and other aspects of the biology and ecology of the insect host. Thus, any research aimed at deepening the knowledge of any given insect species (perhaps species of applied interest or species emerging as novel pests or vectors) must consider the characterization of the associated microbiome. The present review critically examines the microbiology and molecular ecology techniques that can be applied to the taxonomical and functional analysis of the microbiome of non-model insects. Our goal is to provide an overview of current approaches and methods addressing the ecology and functions of microorganisms and microbiomes associated with insects. Our focus is on operational details, aiming to provide a concise guide to currently available advanced techniques, in an effort to extend insect microbiome research beyond simple descriptions of microbial communities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Culturally compelling strategies for behaviour change: a social ecology model and case study in malaria prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panter-Brick, Catherine; Clarke, Sian E; Lomas, Heather; Pinder, Margaret; Lindsay, Steve W

    2006-06-01

    Behaviour change is notoriously difficult to initiate and sustain, and the reasons why efforts to promote healthy behaviours fail are coming under increasing scrutiny. To be successful, health interventions should build on existing practices, skills and priorities, recognise the constraints on human behaviour, and either feature community mobilisation or target those most receptive to change. Furthermore, interventions should strive to be culturally compelling, not merely culturally appropriate: they must engage local communities and nestle within social and ecological landscapes. In this paper, we propose a social ecology perspective to make explicit the links between intention to change, actual behaviour change, and subsequent health impact, as relating to both theory-based models and practical strategies for triggering behaviour change. A social ecology model focuses attention on the contexts of behaviour when designing, implementing or critically evaluating interventions. As a case study, we reflect on a community-directed intervention in rural Gambia designed to reduce malaria by promoting a relatively simple and low-cost behaviour: repairing holes in mosquito bednets. In phase 1, contextual information on bednet usage, transactions and repairs (the 'social lives' of nets) was documented. In phase 2 (intervention), songs were composed and posters displayed by community members to encourage repairs, creating a sense of ownership and a compelling medium for the transmission of health messages. In phase 3 (evaluation), qualitative and quantitative data showed that household responses were particularly rapid and extensive, with significant increase in bednet repairs (psocial ecology-of behaviour practices that are the bedrock of health interventions.

  15. Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2016-03-01

    Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals' daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  16. Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A.; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2016-01-01

    Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals’ daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. PMID:26707864

  17. Upending the social ecological model to guide health promotion efforts toward policy and environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Shelley D; McLeroy, Kenneth R; Green, Lawrence W; Earp, Jo Anne L; Lieberman, Lisa D

    2015-04-01

    Efforts to change policies and the environments in which people live, work, and play have gained increasing attention over the past several decades. Yet health promotion frameworks that illustrate the complex processes that produce health-enhancing structural changes are limited. Building on the experiences of health educators, community activists, and community-based researchers described in this supplement and elsewhere, as well as several political, social, and behavioral science theories, we propose a new framework to organize our thinking about producing policy, environmental, and other structural changes. We build on the social ecological model, a framework widely employed in public health research and practice, by turning it inside out, placing health-related and other social policies and environments at the center, and conceptualizing the ways in which individuals, their social networks, and organized groups produce a community context that fosters healthy policy and environmental development. We conclude by describing how health promotion practitioners and researchers can foster structural change by (1) conveying the health and social relevance of policy and environmental change initiatives, (2) building partnerships to support them, and (3) promoting more equitable distributions of the resources necessary for people to meet their daily needs, control their lives, and freely participate in the public sphere. © 2015 Society for Public Health Education.

  18. Simulation of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Removal in Ecological Ditch Based on EFDC Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, S. M.; Wang, X. L.; Zhou, Q. Y.; Han, N. N.

    2018-03-01

    Agricultural non-point source pollution threatens water quality and ecological system recently. To control it, the first and most important task is to control the migration and transformation of nitrogen and phosphorus in the agricultural ditches. An ecological ditch was designed, and according to the design a pilot device was built, the mechanism of N and P removal in ditches under the collaboration of aquatic organisms-hydraulic power was studied through the dynamic and static experiments, in order to find out the specific influences of different environmental factors such as influent concentration, influent flow and water level. The transport and diffusion of N and P in the ditch was simulated by a three dimensional water quality model EFDC, the simulation results and the experimental data were compared. The average relative errors of EFDC model simulated results were all less than 15%, which verified the reliability of the model.

  19. Process mining using BPMN: relating event logs and process models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalenkova, A.A.; van der Aalst, W.M.P.; Lomazova, I.A.; Rubin, V.A.

    2017-01-01

    Process-aware information systems (PAIS) are systems relying on processes, which involve human and software resources to achieve concrete goals. There is a need to develop approaches for modeling, analysis, improvement and monitoring processes within PAIS. These approaches include process mining

  20. Process mining using BPMN : relating event logs and process models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalenkova, A.A.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Lomazova, I.A.; Rubin, V.A.

    2015-01-01

    Process-aware information systems (PAIS) are systems relying on processes, which involve human and software resources to achieve concrete goals. There is a need to develop approaches for modeling, analysis, improvement and monitoring processes within PAIS. These approaches include process mining

  1. Uncovering stability mechanisms in microbial ecosystems - combining microcosm experiments, computational modelling and ecological theory in a multidisciplinary approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worrich, Anja; König, Sara; Banitz, Thomas; Centler, Florian; Frank, Karin; Kästner, Matthias; Miltner, Anja; Thullner, Martin; Wick, Lukas

    2015-04-01

    Although bacterial degraders in soil are commonly exposed to fluctuating environmental conditions, the functional performance of the biodegradation processes can often be maintained by resistance and resilience mechanisms. However, there is still a gap in the mechanistic understanding of key factors contributing to the stability of such an ecosystem service. Therefore we developed an integrated approach combining microcosm experiments, simulation models and ecological theory to directly make use of the strengths of these disciplines. In a continuous interplay process, data, hypotheses, and central questions are exchanged between disciplines to initiate new experiments and models to ultimately identify buffer mechanisms and factors providing functional stability. We focus on drying and rewetting-cycles in soil ecosystems, which are a major abiotic driver for bacterial activity. Functional recovery of the system was found to depend on different spatial processes in the computational model. In particular, bacterial motility is a prerequisite for biodegradation if either bacteria or substrate are heterogeneously distributed. Hence, laboratory experiments focussing on bacterial dispersal processes were conducted and confirmed this finding also for functional resistance. Obtained results will be incorporated into the model in the next step. Overall, the combination of computational modelling and laboratory experiments identified spatial processes as the main driving force for functional stability in the considered system, and has proved a powerful methodological approach.

  2. Multiphysics modelling of manufacturing processes: A review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jabbari, Masoud; Baran, Ismet; Mohanty, Sankhya

    2018-01-01

    Numerical modelling is increasingly supporting the analysis and optimization of manufacturing processes in the production industry. Even if being mostly applied to multistep processes, single process steps may be so complex by nature that the needed models to describe them must include multiphysics...... the diversity in the field of modelling of manufacturing processes as regards process, materials, generic disciplines as well as length scales: (1) modelling of tape casting for thin ceramic layers, (2) modelling the flow of polymers in extrusion, (3) modelling the deformation process of flexible stamps...... for nanoimprint lithography, (4) modelling manufacturing of composite parts and (5) modelling the selective laser melting process. For all five examples, the emphasis is on modelling results as well as describing the models in brief mathematical details. Alongside with relevant references to the original work...

  3. Modeling Suspension and Continuation of a Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Svatos

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This work focuses on difficulties an analyst encounters when modeling suspension and continuation of a process in contemporary process modeling languages. As a basis there is introduced general lifecycle of an activity which is then compared to activity lifecycles supported by individual process modeling languages. The comparison shows that the contemporary process modeling languages cover the defined general lifecycle of an activity only partially. There are picked two popular process modeling languages and there is modeled real example, which reviews how the modeling languages can get along with their lack of native support of suspension and continuation of an activity. Upon the unsatisfying results of the contemporary process modeling languages in the modeled example, there is presented a new process modeling language which, as demonstrated, is capable of capturing suspension and continuation of an activity in much simpler and precise way.

  4. Applying ecological models to communities of genetic elements: the case of neutral theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linquist, Stefan; Cottenie, Karl; Elliott, Tyler A; Saylor, Brent; Kremer, Stefan C; Gregory, T Ryan

    2015-07-01

    A promising recent development in molecular biology involves viewing the genome as a mini-ecosystem, where genetic elements are compared to organisms and the surrounding cellular and genomic structures are regarded as the local environment. Here, we critically evaluate the prospects of ecological neutral theory (ENT), a popular model in ecology, as it applies at the genomic level. This assessment requires an overview of the controversy surrounding neutral models in community ecology. In particular, we discuss the limitations of using ENT both as an explanation of community dynamics and as a null hypothesis. We then analyse a case study in which ENT has been applied to genomic data. Our central finding is that genetic elements do not conform to the requirements of ENT once its assumptions and limitations are made explicit. We further compare this genome-level application of ENT to two other, more familiar approaches in genomics that rely on neutral mechanisms: Kimura's molecular neutral theory and Lynch's mutational-hazard model. Interestingly, this comparison reveals that there are two distinct concepts of neutrality associated with these models, which we dub 'fitness neutrality' and 'competitive neutrality'. This distinction helps to clarify the various roles for neutral models in genomics, for example in explaining the evolution of genome size. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. An online database for informing ecological network models: http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beas-Luna, Rodrigo; Novak, Mark; Carr, Mark H; Tinker, Martin T; Black, August; Caselle, Jennifer E; Hoban, Michael; Malone, Dan; Iles, Alison

    2014-01-01

    Ecological network models and analyses are recognized as valuable tools for understanding the dynamics and resiliency of ecosystems, and for informing ecosystem-based approaches to management. However, few databases exist that can provide the life history, demographic and species interaction information necessary to parameterize ecological network models. Faced with the difficulty of synthesizing the information required to construct models for kelp forest ecosystems along the West Coast of North America, we developed an online database (http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu/) to facilitate the collation and dissemination of such information. Many of the database's attributes are novel yet the structure is applicable and adaptable to other ecosystem modeling efforts. Information for each taxonomic unit includes stage-specific life history, demography, and body-size allometries. Species interactions include trophic, competitive, facilitative, and parasitic forms. Each data entry is temporally and spatially explicit. The online data entry interface allows researchers anywhere to contribute and access information. Quality control is facilitated by attributing each entry to unique contributor identities and source citations. The database has proven useful as an archive of species and ecosystem-specific information in the development of several ecological network models, for informing management actions, and for education purposes (e.g., undergraduate and graduate training). To facilitate adaptation of the database by other researches for other ecosystems, the code and technical details on how to customize this database and apply it to other ecosystems are freely available and located at the following link (https://github.com/kelpforest-cameo/databaseui).

  6. Computer Aided Continuous Time Stochastic Process Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2001-01-01

    A grey-box approach to process modelling that combines deterministic and stochastic modelling is advocated for identification of models for model-based control of batch and semi-batch processes. A computer-aided tool designed for supporting decision-making within the corresponding modelling cycle...

  7. Process modeling for Humanities: tracing and analyzing scientific processes

    OpenAIRE

    Hug , Charlotte; Salinesi , Camille; Deneckere , Rebecca; Lamasse , Stéphane

    2011-01-01

    International audience; This paper concerns epistemology and the understanding of research processes in Humanities, such as Archaeology. We believe that to properly understand research processes, it is essential to trace them. The collected traces depend on the process model established, which has to be as accurate as possible to exhaustively record the traces. In this paper, we briefly explain why the existing process models for Humanities are not sufficient to represent traces. We then pres...

  8. Developing Ecological Models on Carbon and Nitrogen in Secondary Facultative Ponds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aponte-Reyes Alexander

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Ecological models formulated for TOC, CO2, NH4+, NO3- and NTK, based in literature reviewed and field work were obtained monitoring three facultative secondary stabilization ponds, FSSP, pilots: conventional pond, CP, baffled pond, BP, and baffled-meshed pond, BMP. Models were sensitive to flow inlet, solar radiation, pH and oxygen content; the sensitive parameters in Carbon Model were KCOT Ba, umax Ba, umax Al, K1OX, VAl, R1DCH4, YBh. The sensitive parameters in the Nitrogen model were KCOT Ba, umax Ba, umax Al, VAl, KOPH, KOPA, r4An. The test t–paired showed a good simulating of Carbon model refers to TOC in FSSP; on the other side, the Nitrogen model showed a good simulating of NH4+. Different topological models modify ecosystem ecology forcing different transformation pathways of Nitrogen; equal transformations of the Carbon BMP topology could be achieved using lower volumes, however, a calibration for a new model would be required. Carbon and Nitrogen models developed could be coupled to hydrodynamics models for better modeling of FSSP.

  9. Forest economics, natural disturbances and the new ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; Robert J. Huggett; John M. Pye

    2008-01-01

    The major thesis of this chapter is that the economic analysis of forest disturbances will be enhanced by linking economic and ecologic models. Although we only review a limited number of concepts drawn generally from mathematical and empirical ecology, the overarching theme we present is that ecological models of forest disturbance processes are complex and not...

  10. [Regional ecological construction and mission of landscape ecology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Duning; Xie, Fuju; Wei, Jianbing

    2004-10-01

    The eco-construction on regional and landscape scale is the one which can be used to specific landscape and intercrossing ecosystem in specific region including performing scientific administration of ecosystem and optimizing environmental function. Recently, the government has taken a series of significant projects into action, such as national forest protection item, partly forest restoration, and adjustment of water, etc. Enforcing regional eco-construction and maintaining the ecology security of the nation have become the strategic requisition. In various regions, different eco-construction should be applied, for example, performing ecological safeguard measure in ecological sensitive zone, accommodating the ecological load in ecological fragile zone, etc., which can control the activities of human being, so that, sustainable development can be reached. Facing opportunity and challenge in the development of landscape ecology, we have some key topics: landscape pattern of ecological security, land use and ecological process, landscape changes under human activity stress, quantitative evaluation of the influence on human being activities, evaluation of zonal ecological security and advance warning of ecological risk, and planning and optimizing of model in landscape eco-construction.

  11. [Analysis on sustainable development of marine economy in Jiangsu Province based on marine ecological footprint correction model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shan; Wang, Yu-ting

    2011-03-01

    Based on the theories and methods of ecological footprint, the concept of marine ecological footprint was proposed. According to the characteristics of marine environment in Jiangsu Province, five sub-models of marine ecological footprints, including fishery, transporation, marine engineering construction, marine energy, and tidal flat, were constructed. The equilibrium factors of the five marine types were determined by using improved entropy method, and the marine footprints and capacities in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2008 were calculated and analyzed. In 2000-2008, the marine ecology footprint per capita in Jiangsu Province increased nearly seven times, from 36.90 hm2 to 252.94 hm2, and the ecological capacity per capita grew steadily, from 105.01 hm2 to 185.49 hm2. In 2000, the marine environment in the Province was in a state of ecological surplus, and the marine economy was in a weak sustainable development state. Since 2004, the marine ecological environment deteriorated sharply, with ecological deficit up to 109660.5 hm2, and the sustainability of marine economy declined. The high ecological footprint of fishery was the main reason for the ecological deficit. Tidal flat was the important reserve resource for the sustainable development of marine economy in Jiangsu Province.

  12. Bridging the gap between theoretical ecology and real ecosystems: modeling invertebrate community composition in streams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuwirth, Nele; Reichert, Peter

    2013-02-01

    For the first time, we combine concepts of theoretical food web modeling, the metabolic theory of ecology, and ecological stoichiometry with the use of functional trait databases to predict the coexistence of invertebrate taxa in streams. We developed a mechanistic model that describes growth, death, and respiration of different taxa dependent on various environmental influence factors to estimate survival or extinction. Parameter and input uncertainty is propagated to model results. Such a model is needed to test our current quantitative understanding of ecosystem structure and function and to predict effects of anthropogenic impacts and restoration efforts. The model was tested using macroinvertebrate monitoring data from a catchment of the Swiss Plateau. Even without fitting model parameters, the model is able to represent key patterns of the coexistence structure of invertebrates at sites varying in external conditions (litter input, shading, water quality). This confirms the suitability of the model concept. More comprehensive testing and resulting model adaptations will further increase the predictive accuracy of the model.

  13. Ecological validity of cost-effectiveness models of universal HPV vaccination: A systematic literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favato, Giampiero; Easton, Tania; Vecchiato, Riccardo; Noikokyris, Emmanouil

    2017-05-09

    The protective (herd) effect of the selective vaccination of pubertal girls against human papillomavirus (HPV) implies a high probability that one of the two partners involved in intercourse is immunised, hence preventing the other from this sexually transmitted infection. The dynamic transmission models used to inform immunisation policy should include consideration of sexual behaviours and population mixing in order to demonstrate an ecological validity, whereby the scenarios modelled remain faithful to the real-life social and cultural context. The primary aim of this review is to test the ecological validity of the universal HPV vaccination cost-effectiveness modelling available in the published literature. The research protocol related to this systematic review has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016034145). Eight published economic evaluations were reviewed. None of the studies showed due consideration of the complexities of human sexual behaviour and the impact this may have on the transmission of HPV. Our findings indicate that all the included models might be affected by a different degree of ecological bias, which implies an inability to reflect the natural demographic and behavioural trends in their outcomes and, consequently, to accurately inform public healthcare policy. In particular, ecological bias have the effect to over-estimate the preference-based outcomes of selective immunisation. A relatively small (15-20%) over-estimation of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained with selective immunisation programmes could induce a significant error in the estimate of cost-effectiveness of universal immunisation, by inflating its incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) beyond the acceptability threshold. The results modelled here demonstrate the limitations of the cost-effectiveness studies for HPV vaccination, and highlight the concern that public healthcare policy might have been

  14. Spatio-temporal pattern formation, fractals, and chaos in conceptual ecological models as applied to coupled plankton-fish dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medvinskii, Aleksandr B; Tikhonova, Irina A; Tikhonov, D A; Ivanitskii, Genrikh R; Petrovskii, Sergei V; Li, B.-L.; Venturino, E; Malchow, H

    2002-01-01

    The current turn-of-the-century period witnesses the intensive use of the bioproducts of the World Ocean while at the same time calling for precautions to preserve its ecological stability. This requires that biophysical processes in aquatic systems be comprehensively explored and new methods for monitoring their dynamics be developed. While aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems have much in common in terms of their mathematical description, there are essential differences between them. For example, the mobility of oceanic plankton is mainly controlled by diffusion processes, whereas terrestrial organisms naturally enough obey totally different laws. This paper is focused on the processes underlying the dynamics of spatially inhomogeneous plankton communities. We demonstrate that conceptual reaction-diffusion mathematical models are an appropriate tool for investigating both complex spatio-temporal plankton dynamics and the fractal properties of planktivorous fish school walks. (reviews of topical problems)

  15. Business process modeling for processing classified documents using RFID technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koszela Jarosław

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article outlines the application of the processing approach to the functional description of the designed IT system supporting the operations of the secret office, which processes classified documents. The article describes the application of the method of incremental modeling of business processes according to the BPMN model to the description of the processes currently implemented (“as is” in a manual manner and target processes (“to be”, using the RFID technology for the purpose of their automation. Additionally, the examples of applying the method of structural and dynamic analysis of the processes (process simulation to verify their correctness and efficiency were presented. The extension of the process analysis method is a possibility of applying the warehouse of processes and process mining methods.

  16. Process correlation analysis model for process improvement identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Su-jin; Kim, Dae-Kyoo; Park, Sooyong

    2014-01-01

    Software process improvement aims at improving the development process of software systems. It is initiated by process assessment identifying strengths and weaknesses and based on the findings, improvement plans are developed. In general, a process reference model (e.g., CMMI) is used throughout the process of software process improvement as the base. CMMI defines a set of process areas involved in software development and what to be carried out in process areas in terms of goals and practices. Process areas and their elements (goals and practices) are often correlated due to the iterative nature of software development process. However, in the current practice, correlations of process elements are often overlooked in the development of an improvement plan, which diminishes the efficiency of the plan. This is mainly attributed to significant efforts and the lack of required expertise. In this paper, we present a process correlation analysis model that helps identify correlations of process elements from the results of process assessment. This model is defined based on CMMI and empirical data of improvement practices. We evaluate the model using industrial data.

  17. An ecological model of the impact of sexual assault on women's mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Rebecca; Dworkin, Emily; Cabral, Giannina

    2009-07-01

    This review examines the psychological impact of adult sexual assault through an ecological theoretical perspective to understand how factors at multiple levels of the social ecology contribute to post-assault sequelae. Using Bronfenbrenner's (1979, 1986, 1995) ecological theory of human development, we examine how individual-level factors (e.g., sociodemographics, biological/genetic factors), assault characteristics (e.g., victim-offender relationship, injury, alcohol use), microsystem factors (e.g., informal support from family and friends), meso/ exosystem factors (e.g., contact with the legal, medical, and mental health systems, and rape crisis centers), macrosystem factors (e.g., societal rape myth acceptance), and chronosystem factors (e.g., sexual revictimization and history of other victimizations) affect adult sexual assault survivors' mental health outcomes (e.g., post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, suicidality, and substance use). Self-blame is conceptualized as meta-construct that stems from all levels of this ecological model. Implications for curbing and/or preventing the negative mental health effects of sexual assault are discussed.

  18. Syntax highlighting in business process models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reijers, H.A.; Freytag, T.; Mendling, J.; Eckleder, A.

    2011-01-01

    Sense-making of process models is an important task in various phases of business process management initiatives. Despite this, there is currently hardly any support in business process modeling tools to adequately support model comprehension. In this paper we adapt the concept of syntax

  19. Configurable multi-perspective business process models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    La Rosa, M.; Dumas, M.; Hofstede, ter A.H.M.; Mendling, J.

    2011-01-01

    A configurable process model provides a consolidated view of a family of business processes. It promotes the reuse of proven practices by providing analysts with a generic modeling artifact from which to derive individual process models. Unfortunately, the scope of existing notations for

  20. 'Ecological value added' in an integrated ecosystem-economy model. An indicator for sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kratena, Kurt

    2004-01-01

    This paper sets up an input-output system of the relevant ecosystem flows that determine the carbon cycle in the global ecosystem. Introducing energy as the value added component in the ecosystem allows to calculate ecosystem prices expressed in 'energy values'. Linking the ecosystem with the economy in an integrated input-output model then allows to calculate prices of economic activities and of ecosystem activities. In analogy to the 'Ecological Footprint', where productive land is needed to absorb anthropogenic emissions, in this integrated input-output model additional carbon sinks are introduced for emission absorption. These carbon sinks need solar energy input, i.e. 'ecological value added'. Emission absorption as well as GDP therefore become activities valued in the numeraire of the integrated system, i.e.'energy values'. From that sustainability indicators can be derived

  1. Seafloor Eruptions Offer a Teachable Moment to Help SEAS Students Understand Important Geological and Ecological Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goehring, L.; Williams, C. S.

    2006-12-01

    In education parlance, a teachable moment is an opportunity that arises when students are engaged and primed to learn, typically in response to some memorable event. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, even natural disasters, if meaningful to the student, often serve to catalyze intense learning. Recent eruptions at the East Pacific Rise offer a potential teachable moment for students and teachers involved with SEAS, a Ridge 2000 education outreach program. SEAS uses a combination of web-facilitated and teacher-directed activities to make the remote deep-sea environment and the process of science relevant and meaningful. SEAS is a web-based, inquiry-oriented education program for middle and high school students. It features the science associated with Ridge 2000 research. Since 2003, SEAS has focused on the integrated study site at the East Pacific Rise (EPR) to help students understand geological and ecological processes at mid-ocean ridges and hydrothermal vents. SEAS students study EPR bathymetry maps, images of lava formations, photomosaics of diffuse flow communities, succession in the Bio-Geo Transect, as well as current research conducted during spring cruises. In the Classroom to Sea Lab, students make direct comparisons between shallow-water mussels and vent mussels (from the EPR) to understand differences in feeding strategies. The recent eruptions and loss of seafloor fauna at this site offer the Ridge 2000 program the opportunity to help students better understand the ephemeral and episodic nature of ridge environments, as well as the realities and processes of science (particularly field science). In January 2007, the SEAS program will again sail with a Ridge 2000 research team, and will work with scientists to report findings through the SEAS website. The eruptions at the EPR covered much of the study site, and scientists' instruments and experiments, in fresh lava. We intend to highlight the recency and effect of the eruptions, using the students

  2. Land-use history and contemporary management inform an ecological reference model for longleaf pine woodland understory plant communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lars A. Brudvig; John L. Orrock; Ellen I. Damschen; Cathy D. Collins; Philip G. Hahn; W. Brett Mattingly; Joseph W. Veldman; Joan L. Walker

    2014-01-01

    Ecological restoration is frequently guided by reference conditions describing a successfully restored ecosystem; however, the causes and magnitude of ecosystem degradation vary, making simple knowledge of reference conditions insufficient for prioritizing and guiding restoration. Ecological reference models provide further guidance by quantifying reference conditions...

  3. Ecological-economic modelling of interactions between wild and commercial bees and pesticide use

    OpenAIRE

    Kleczkowski, Adam; Ellis, Ciaran; Goulson, Dave; Hanley, Nick

    2015-01-01

    The decline in extent of wild pollinators in recent years has been partly associated with changing farm practices and in particular with increasing pesticide use. In this paper we combine ecological modelling with economic analysis of a single farm output under the as- sumption that both pollination and pest control are essential inputs. We show that the drive to increase farm output can lead to a local decline in the wild bee population. Commercial bees are often considered an alternative to...

  4. MODELING ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL BENEFITS OF POST-FIRE REVEGETATION IN THE GREAT BASIN

    OpenAIRE

    Niell, Rebecca; Englin, Jeffrey E.; Nalle, Darek

    2004-01-01

    This study employs a Markov chain model of vegetation dynamics to examine the economic and ecological benefits of post-fire revegetation in the Great Basin sagebrush steppe. The analysis is important because synergies between wildland fire and invasive weeds in this ecosystem are likely to result in the loss of native biodiversity, less predictable forage availability for livestock and wildlife, reduced watershed stability and water quality, and increased costs and risk associated with firefi...

  5. Ecosystem-based fishery management: a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Thanh Viet

      An ecosystem approach means different things to different people. As a result the concept of ecosystem-based fishery management is evolving and it has no universal definition or consistent application. As regards ecosystem modeling, most economic models of fishery ignore the linkages to lower...... trophic levels. In particular, environmental data and other bottom-up information is widely disregarded. The objective of this paper is to provide a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models relating to ecosystem-based fishery management....

  6. User's manual for a process model code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kern, E.A.; Martinez, D.P.

    1981-03-01

    The MODEL code has been developed for computer modeling of materials processing facilities associated with the nuclear fuel cycle. However, it can also be used in other modeling applications. This report provides sufficient information for a potential user to apply the code to specific process modeling problems. Several examples that demonstrate most of the capabilities of the code are provided

  7. Repairing process models to reflect reality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Barros, A.; Gal, A.; Kindler, E.

    2012-01-01

    Process mining techniques relate observed behavior (i.e., event logs) to modeled behavior (e.g., a BPMN model or a Petri net). Processes models can be discovered from event logs and conformance checking techniques can be used to detect and diagnose differences between observed and modeled behavior.

  8. Ecological opportunity and predator-prey interactions: linking eco-evolutionary processes and diversification in adaptive radiations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pontarp, Mikael; Petchey, Owen L

    2018-03-14

    Much of life's diversity has arisen through ecological opportunity and adaptive radiations, but the mechanistic underpinning of such diversification is not fully understood. Competition and predation can affect adaptive radiations, but contrasting theoretical and empirical results show that they can both promote and interrupt diversification. A mechanistic understanding of the link between microevolutionary processes and macroevolutionary patterns is thus needed, especially in trophic communities. Here, we use a trait-based eco-evolutionary model to investigate the mechanisms linking competition, predation and adaptive radiations. By combining available micro-evolutionary theory and simulations of adaptive radiations we show that intraspecific competition is crucial for diversification as it induces disruptive selection, in particular in early phases of radiation. The diversification rate is however decreased in later phases owing to interspecific competition as niche availability, and population sizes are decreased. We provide new insight into how predation tends to have a negative effect on prey diversification through decreased population sizes, decreased disruptive selection and through the exclusion of prey from parts of niche space. The seemingly disparate effects of competition and predation on adaptive radiations, listed in the literature, may thus be acting and interacting in the same adaptive radiation at different relative strength as the radiation progresses. © 2018 The Authors.

  9. Genetic Process Mining: Alignment-based Process Model Mutation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eck, van M.L.; Buijs, J.C.A.M.; Dongen, van B.F.; Fournier, F.; Mendling, J.

    2015-01-01

    The Evolutionary Tree Miner (ETM) is a genetic process discovery algorithm that enables the user to guide the discovery process based on preferences with respect to four process model quality dimensions: replay fitness, precision, generalization and simplicity. Traditionally, the ETM algorithm uses

  10. Sparking interest in restaurant dishes? Cognitive and affective processes underlying dish design and ecological origin. An fMRI study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Leiva, Francisco; Gómez-Carmona, Diego

    2018-06-14

    The objective of the current paper is to verify to what extent the presentation of a restaurant dish and the origin of its food provoke reactions in the consumer's brain during the visualization and the decision-making process, from an exploratory approach. The two independent variables singled out for study were whether the presentation was well or poorly presented and if the ingredients were ecological or non-ecological. The results applying the functional magnetic resonance image (fMRI) methodology reveal that well-presented dishes activate areas in the brain linked to the network of emotions indicating that the visualization in restaurant menus is not a purely cognitive and self-reflexive process but retains a strong affective component. Furthermore, the presence of this component is kept at the moment of choosing a dish, as observed by the activation of the gyrus cingulate, region linked to the regulatory processes of emotions. Hence, research ratifies the existence of an emotional factor during the entire process of decision-making carried out in a restaurant. Yet it is true that exposure to an ecological menu provokes activation of the medial frontal cortex, a region connected to higher reasoning and attention, suggesting that stimuli from well-presented dishes of ecological origin trigger neuronal responses related to high-level cognitive processes. The practical implications derived, along with its limitations and the future research opportunities, are interesting for both developing theory and also practice. Therefore, scholars are encouraged to further test some research proposals (e.g. moderating role of salubrity or simultaneously eye tracking method). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  11. Emergy evaluation of water utilization benefits in water-ecological-economic system based on water cycle process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, X.; Wu, Z.; Lv, C.

    2017-12-01

    The water utilization benefits are formed by the material flow, energy flow, information flow and value stream in the whole water cycle process, and reflected along with the material circulation of inner system. But most of traditional water utilization benefits evaluation are based on the macro level, only consider the whole material input and output and energy conversion relation, and lack the characterization of water utilization benefits accompanying with water cycle process from the formation mechanism. In addition, most studies are from the perspective of economics, only pay attention to the whole economic output and sewage treatment economic investment, but neglect the ecological function benefits of water cycle, Therefore, from the perspective of internal material circulation in the whole system, taking water cycle process as the process of material circulation and energy flow, the circulation and flow process of water and other ecological environment, social economic elements were described, and the composition of water utilization positive and negative benefits in water-ecological-economic system was explored, and the performance of each benefit was analyzed. On this basis, the emergy calculation method of each benefit was proposed by emergy quantitative analysis technique, which can realize the unified measurement and evaluation of water utilization benefits in water-ecological-economic system. Then, taking Zhengzhou city as an example, the corresponding benefits of different water cycle links were calculated quantitatively by emergy method, and the results showed that the emergy evaluation method of water utilization benefits can unify the ecosystem and the economic system, achieve uniform quantitative analysis, and measure the true value of natural resources and human economic activities comprehensively.

  12. Composing Models of Geographic Physical Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofer, Barbara; Frank, Andrew U.

    Processes are central for geographic information science; yet geographic information systems (GIS) lack capabilities to represent process related information. A prerequisite to including processes in GIS software is a general method to describe geographic processes independently of application disciplines. This paper presents such a method, namely a process description language. The vocabulary of the process description language is derived formally from mathematical models. Physical processes in geography can be described in two equivalent languages: partial differential equations or partial difference equations, where the latter can be shown graphically and used as a method for application specialists to enter their process models. The vocabulary of the process description language comprises components for describing the general behavior of prototypical geographic physical processes. These process components can be composed by basic models of geographic physical processes, which is shown by means of an example.

  13. Using remotely sensed vegetation indices to model ecological pasture conditions in Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masselink, Loes; Baartman, Jantiene; Verbesselt, Jan; Borchardt, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Kyrgyzstan has a long history of nomadic lifestyle in which pastures play an important role. However, currently the pastures are subject to severe grazing-induced degradation. Deteriorating levels of biomass, palatability and biodiversity reduce the pastures' productivity. To counter this and introduce sustainable pasture management, up-to-date information regarding the ecological conditions of the pastures is essential. This research aimed to investigate the potential of a remote sensing-based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions in the Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan. The relations between Vegetation Indices (VIs) from Landsat ETM+ images and biomass, palatability and species richness field data were investigated. Both simple and multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses, including terrain attributes, were applied. Subsequently, trends of these three pasture conditions were mapped using time series analysis. The results show that biomass is most accurately estimated by a model including the Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and a slope factor (R2 = 0.65, F = 0.0006). Regarding palatability, a model including the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Northness Index, Near Infrared (NIR) and Red band was most accurate (R2 = 0.61, F = 0.0160). Species richness was most accurately estimated by a model including Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Eastness Index and estimated biomass (R2 = 0.81, F = 0.0028). Subsequent trend analyses of all three estimated ecological pasture conditions presented very similar trend patterns. Despite the need for a more robust validation, this study confirms the high potential of a remote sensing based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions.

  14. MORTALITY MODELING WITH LEVY PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Serhat Yucel, FRM

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Mortality and longevity risk is usually one of the main risk components ineconomic capital models of insurance companies. Above all, future mortalityexpectations are an important input in the modeling and pricing of long termproducts. Deviations from the expectation can lead insurance company even todefault if sufficient reserves and capital is not held. Thus, Modeling of mortalitytime series accurately is a vital concern for the insurance industry. The aim of thisstudy is to perform distributional and spectral testing to the mortality data andpracticed discrete and continuous time modeling. We believe, the results and thetechniques used in this study will provide a basis for Value at Risk formula incase of mortality.

  15. Model-based software process improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zettervall, Brenda T.

    1994-01-01

    The activities of a field test site for the Software Engineering Institute's software process definition project are discussed. Products tested included the improvement model itself, descriptive modeling techniques, the CMM level 2 framework document, and the use of process definition guidelines and templates. The software process improvement model represents a five stage cyclic approach for organizational process improvement. The cycles consist of the initiating, diagnosing, establishing, acting, and leveraging phases.

  16. Kopernik : modeling business processes for digital customers

    OpenAIRE

    Estañol Lamarca, Montserrat; Castro, Manuel; Díaz-Montenegro, Sylvia; Teniente López, Ernest

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the Kopernik methodology for modeling business processes for digital customers. These processes require a high degree of flexibility in the execution of their tasks or actions. We achieve this by using the artifact-centric approach to process modeling and the use of condition-action rules. The processes modeled following Kopernik can then be implemented in an existing commercial tool, Balandra.

  17. The triconnected abstraction of process models

    OpenAIRE

    Polyvyanyy, Artem; Smirnov, Sergey; Weske, Mathias

    2009-01-01

    Contents: Artem Polyvanny, Sergey Smirnow, and Mathias Weske The Triconnected Abstraction of Process Models 1 Introduction 2 Business Process Model Abstraction 3 Preliminaries 4 Triconnected Decomposition 4.1 Basic Approach for Process Component Discovery 4.2 SPQR-Tree Decomposition 4.3 SPQR-Tree Fragments in the Context of Process Models 5 Triconnected Abstraction 5.1 Abstraction Rules 5.2 Abstraction Algorithm 6 Related Work and Conclusions

  18. BioVeL: a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardisty, Alex R; Bacall, Finn; Beard, Niall; Balcázar-Vargas, Maria-Paula; Balech, Bachir; Barcza, Zoltán; Bourlat, Sarah J; De Giovanni, Renato; de Jong, Yde; De Leo, Francesca; Dobor, Laura; Donvito, Giacinto; Fellows, Donal; Guerra, Antonio Fernandez; Ferreira, Nuno; Fetyukova, Yuliya; Fosso, Bruno; Giddy, Jonathan; Goble, Carole; Güntsch, Anton; Haines, Robert; Ernst, Vera Hernández; Hettling, Hannes; Hidy, Dóra; Horváth, Ferenc; Ittzés, Dóra; Ittzés, Péter; Jones, Andrew; Kottmann, Renzo; Kulawik, Robert; Leidenberger, Sonja; Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, Päivi; Mathew, Cherian; Morrison, Norman; Nenadic, Aleksandra; de la Hidalga, Abraham Nieva; Obst, Matthias; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Paymal, Elisabeth; Pesole, Graziano; Pinto, Salvatore; Poigné, Axel; Fernandez, Francisco Quevedo; Santamaria, Monica; Saarenmaa, Hannu; Sipos, Gergely; Sylla, Karl-Heinz; Tähtinen, Marko; Vicario, Saverio; Vos, Rutger Aldo; Williams, Alan R; Yilmaz, Pelin

    2016-10-20

    Making forecasts about biodiversity and giving support to policy relies increasingly on large collections of data held electronically, and on substantial computational capability and capacity to analyse, model, simulate and predict using such data. However, the physically distributed nature of data resources and of expertise in advanced analytical tools creates many challenges for the modern scientist. Across the wider biological sciences, presenting such capabilities on the Internet (as "Web services") and using scientific workflow systems to compose them for particular tasks is a practical way to carry out robust "in silico" science. However, use of this approach in biodiversity science and ecology has thus far been quite limited. BioVeL is a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology, freely accessible via the Internet. BioVeL includes functions for accessing and analysing data through curated Web services; for performing complex in silico analysis through exposure of R programs, workflows, and batch processing functions; for on-line collaboration through sharing of workflows and workflow runs; for experiment documentation through reproducibility and repeatability; and for computational support via seamless connections to supporting computing infrastructures. We developed and improved more than 60 Web services with significant potential in many different kinds of data analysis and modelling tasks. We composed reusable workflows using these Web services, also incorporating R programs. Deploying these tools into an easy-to-use and accessible 'virtual laboratory', free via the Internet, we applied the workflows in several diverse case studies. We opened the virtual laboratory for public use and through a programme of external engagement we actively encouraged scientists and third party application and tool developers to try out the services and contribute to the activity. Our work shows we can deliver an operational

  19. Development of a generic auto-calibration package for regional ecological modeling and application in the Central Plains of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Li, Zhengpeng; Dahal, Devendra; Young, Claudia J.; Schmidt, Gail L.; Liu, Jinxun; Davis, Brian; Sohl, Terry L.; Werner, Jeremy M.; Oeding, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    Process-oriented ecological models are frequently used for predicting potential impacts of global changes such as climate and land-cover changes, which can be useful for policy making. It is critical but challenging to automatically derive optimal parameter values at different scales, especially at regional scale, and validate the model performance. In this study, we developed an automatic calibration (auto-calibration) function for a well-established biogeochemical model—the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS)-Erosion Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM)—using data assimilation technique: the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm and a model-inversion R package—Flexible Modeling Environment (FME). The new functionality can support multi-parameter and multi-objective auto-calibration of EDCM at the both pixel and regional levels. We also developed a post-processing procedure for GEMS to provide options to save the pixel-based or aggregated county-land cover specific parameter values for subsequent simulations. In our case study, we successfully applied the updated model (EDCM-Auto) for a single crop pixel with a corn–wheat rotation and a large ecological region (Level II)—Central USA Plains. The evaluation results indicate that EDCM-Auto is applicable at multiple scales and is capable to handle land cover changes (e.g., crop rotations). The model also performs well in capturing the spatial pattern of grain yield production for crops and net primary production (NPP) for other ecosystems across the region, which is a good example for implementing calibration and validation of ecological models with readily available survey data (grain yield) and remote sensing data (NPP) at regional and national levels. The developed platform for auto-calibration can be readily expanded to incorporate other model inversion algorithms and potential R packages, and also be applied to other ecological models.

  20. Sensitivity analysis of Repast computational ecology models with R/Repast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestes García, Antonio; Rodríguez-Patón, Alfonso

    2016-12-01

    Computational ecology is an emerging interdisciplinary discipline founded mainly on modeling and simulation methods for studying ecological systems. Among the existing modeling formalisms, the individual-based modeling is particularly well suited for capturing the complex temporal and spatial dynamics as well as the nonlinearities arising in ecosystems, communities, or populations due to individual variability. In addition, being a bottom-up approach, it is useful for providing new insights on the local mechanisms which are generating some observed global dynamics. Of course, no conclusions about model results could be taken seriously if they are based on a single model execution and they are not analyzed carefully. Therefore, a sound methodology should always be used for underpinning the interpretation of model results. The sensitivity analysis is a methodology for quantitatively assessing the effect of input uncertainty in the simulation output which should be incorporated compulsorily to every work based on in-silico experimental setup. In this article, we present R/Repast a GNU R package for running and analyzing Repast Simphony models accompanied by two worked examples on how to perform global sensitivity analysis and how to interpret the results.