Seismological investigation of earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herrmann, R.B.; Nguyen, B.

1993-08-01

Earthquake activity in the New Madrid Seismic Zone had been monitored by regional seismic networks since 1975. During this time period, over 3,700 earthquakes have been located within the region bounded by latitudes 35 degrees--39 degrees N and longitudes 87 degrees--92 degrees W. Most of these earthquakes occur within a 1.5 degrees x 2 degrees zone centered on the Missouri Bootheel. Source parameters of larger earthquakes in the zone and in eastern North America are determined using surface-wave spectral amplitudes and broadband waveforms for the purpose of determining the focal mechanism, source depth and seismic moment. Waveform modeling of broadband data is shown to be a powerful tool in defining these source parameters when used complementary with regional seismic network data, and in addition, in verifying the correctness of previously published focal mechanism solutions

Slab1.0: A three-dimensional model of global subduction zone geometries

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, Gavin P.; Wald, David J.; Johnson, Rebecca L.

2012-01-01

We describe and present a new model of global subduction zone geometries, called Slab1.0. An extension of previous efforts to constrain the two-dimensional non-planar geometry of subduction zones around the focus of large earthquakes, Slab1.0 describes the detailed, non-planar, three-dimensional geometry of approximately 85% of subduction zones worldwide. While the model focuses on the detailed form of each slab from their trenches through the seismogenic zone, where it combines data sets from active source and passive seismology, it also continues to the limits of their seismic extent in the upper-mid mantle, providing a uniform approach to the definition of the entire seismically active slab geometry. Examples are shown for two well-constrained global locations; models for many other regions are available and can be freely downloaded in several formats from our new Slab1.0 website, http://on.doi.gov/d9ARbS. We describe improvements in our two-dimensional geometry constraint inversion, including the use of ‘average’ active source seismic data profiles in the shallow trench regions where data are otherwise lacking, derived from the interpolation between other active source seismic data along-strike in the same subduction zone. We include several analyses of the uncertainty and robustness of our three-dimensional interpolation methods. In addition, we use the filtered, subduction-related earthquake data sets compiled to build Slab1.0 in a reassessment of previous analyses of the deep limit of the thrust interface seismogenic zone for all subduction zones included in our global model thus far, concluding that the width of these seismogenic zones is on average 30% larger than previous studies have suggested.

Earthquakes, fluid pressures and rapid subduction zone metamorphism

Science.gov (United States)

Viete, D. R.

2013-12-01

High-pressure/low-temperature (HP/LT) metamorphism is commonly incomplete, meaning that large tracts of rock can remain metastable at blueschist- and eclogite-facies conditions for timescales up to millions of years [1]. When HP/LT metamorphism does take place, it can occur over extremely short durations (the role of fluids in providing heat for metamorphism [2] or catalyzing metamorphic reactions [1]. Earthquakes in subduction zone settings can occur to depths of 100s of km. Metamorphic dehydration and the associated development of elevated pore pressures in HP/LT metamorphic rocks has been identified as a cause of earthquake activity at such great depths [3-4]. The process of fracturing/faulting significantly increases rock permeability, causing channelized fluid flow and dissipation of pore pressures [3-4]. Thus, deep subduction zone earthquakes are thought to reflect an evolution in fluid pressure, involving: (1) an initial increase in pore pressure by heating-related dehydration of subduction zone rocks, and (2) rapid relief of pore pressures by faulting and channelized flow. Models for earthquakes at depth in subduction zones have focussed on the in situ effects of dehydration and then sudden escape of fluids from the rock mass following fracturing [3-4]. On the other hand, existing models for rapid and incomplete metamorphism in subduction zones have focussed only on the effects of heating and/or hydration with the arrival of external fluids [1-2]. Significant changes in pressure over very short timescales should result in rapid mineral growth and/or disequilibrium texture development in response to overstepping of mineral reaction boundaries. The repeated process of dehydration-pore pressure development-earthquake-pore pressure relief could conceivably produce a record of episodic HP/LT metamorphism driven by rapid pressure pulses. A new hypothesis is presented for the origins of HP/LT metamorphism: that HP/LT metamorphism is driven by effective pressure

Detailed seismotectonic analysis of Sumatra subduction zone revealed by high precision earthquake location

Science.gov (United States)

Sagala, Ricardo Alfencius; Harjadi, P. J. Prih; Heryandoko, Nova; Sianipar, Dimas

2017-07-01

Sumatra was one of the most high seismicity regions in Indonesia. The subduction of Indo-Australian plate beneath Eurasian plate in western Sumatra contributes for many significant earthquakes that occur in this area. These earthquake events can be used to analyze the seismotectonic of Sumatra subduction zone and its system. In this study we use teleseismic double-difference method to obtain more high precision earthquake distribution in Sumatra subduction zone. We use a 3D nested regional-global velocity model. We use a combination of data from both of ISC (International Seismological Center) and BMKG (Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics, Indonesia). We successfully relocate about 6886 earthquakes that occur on period of 1981-2015. We consider that this new location is more precise than the regular bulletin. The relocation results show greatly reduced of RMS residual of travel time. Using this data, we can construct a new seismotectonic map of Sumatra. A well-built geometry of subduction slab, faults and volcano arc can be obtained from the new bulletin. It is also showed that at a depth of 140-170 km, there is many events occur as moderate-to-deep earthquakes, and we consider about the relation of the slab's events with volcanic arc and inland fault system. A reliable slab model is also built from regression equation using new relocated data. We also analyze the spatial-temporal of seismotectonic using b-value mapping that inspected in detail horizontally and vertically cross-section.

Links Between Earthquake Characteristics and Subducting Plate Heterogeneity in the 2016 Pedernales Ecuador Earthquake Rupture Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

2016-12-01

The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid utilizing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Earthquake Catalog data of actual...

Has El Salvador Fault Zone produced M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes? The 1719 El Salvador earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Canora, C.; Martínez-Díaz, J.; Álvarez-Gómez, J.; Villamor, P.; Ínsua-Arévalo, J.; Alonso-Henar, J.; Capote, R.

2013-05-01

Historically, large earthquakes, Mw ≥ 7.0, in the Εl Salvador area have been attributed to activity in the Cocos-Caribbean subduction zone. Τhis is correct for most of the earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.5. However, recent paleoseismic evidence points to the existence of large earthquakes associated with rupture of the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, an Ε-W oriented strike slip fault system that extends for 150 km through central Εl Salvador. Τo calibrate our results from paleoseismic studies, we have analyzed the historical seismicity of the area. In particular, we suggest that the 1719 earthquake can be associated with paleoseismic activity evidenced in the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone. Α reinterpreted isoseismal map for this event suggests that the damage reported could have been a consequence of the rupture of Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, rather than rupture of the subduction zone. Τhe isoseismal is not different to other upper crustal earthquakes in similar tectonovolcanic environments. We thus challenge the traditional assumption that only the subduction zone is capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 in this region. Τhis result has broad implications for future risk management in the region. Τhe potential occurrence of strong ground motion, significantly higher and closer to the Salvadorian populations that those assumed to date, must be considered in seismic hazard assessment studies in this area.

Empirical ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions

Science.gov (United States)

Atkinson, G.M.; Boore, D.M.

2003-01-01

Ground-motion relations for earthquakes that occur in subduction zones are an important input to seismic-hazard analyses in many parts of the world. In the Cascadia region (Washington, Oregon, northern California, and British Columbia), for example, there is a significant hazard from megathrust earthquakes along the subduction interface and from large events within the subducting slab. These hazards are in addition to the hazard from shallow earthquakes in the overlying crust. We have compiled a response spectra database from thousands of strong-motion recordings from events of moment magnitude (M) 5-8.3 occurring in subduction zones around the world, including both interface and in-slab events. The 2001 M 6.8 Nisqually and 1999 M 5.9 Satsop earthquakes are included in the database, as are many records from subduction zones in Japan (Kyoshin-Net data), Mexico (Guerrero data), and Central America. The size of the database is four times larger than that available for previous empirical regressions to determine ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes. The large dataset enables improved determination of attenuation parameters and magnitude scaling, for both interface and in-slab events. Soil response parameters are also better determined by the data. We use the database to develop global ground-motion relations for interface and in-slab earthquakes, using a maximum likelihood regression method. We analyze regional variability of ground-motion amplitudes across the global database and find that there are significant regional differences. In particular, amplitudes in Cascadia differ by more than a factor of 2 from those in Japan for the same magnitude, distance, event type, and National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) soil class. This is believed to be due to regional differences in the depth of the soil profile, which are not captured by the NEHRP site classification scheme. Regional correction factors to account for these differences are

Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

Science.gov (United States)

Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

2012-01-17

The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

Earthquake source parameters along the Hellenic subduction zone and numerical simulations of historical tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

Science.gov (United States)

Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay

2012-04-01

We studied source mechanism parameters and slip distributions of earthquakes with Mw ≥ 5.0 occurred during 2000-2008 along the Hellenic subduction zone by using teleseismic P- and SH-waveform inversion methods. In addition, the major and well-known earthquake-induced Eastern Mediterranean tsunamis (e.g., 365, 1222, 1303, 1481, 1494, 1822 and 1948) were numerically simulated and several hypothetical tsunami scenarios were proposed to demonstrate the characteristics of tsunami waves, propagations and effects of coastal topography. The analogy of current plate boundaries, earthquake source mechanisms, various earthquake moment tensor catalogues and several empirical self-similarity equations, valid for global or local scales, were used to assume conceivable source parameters which constitute the initial and boundary conditions in simulations. Teleseismic inversion results showed that earthquakes along the Hellenic subduction zone can be classified into three major categories: [1] focal mechanisms of the earthquakes exhibiting E-W extension within the overriding Aegean plate; [2] earthquakes related to the African-Aegean convergence; and [3] focal mechanisms of earthquakes lying within the subducting African plate. Normal faulting mechanisms with left-lateral strike slip components were observed at the eastern part of the Hellenic subduction zone, and we suggest that they were probably concerned with the overriding Aegean plate. However, earthquakes involved in the convergence between the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean lithospheres indicated thrust faulting mechanisms with strike slip components, and they had shallow focal depths (h < 45 km). Deeper earthquakes mainly occurred in the subducting African plate, and they presented dominantly strike slip faulting mechanisms. Slip distributions on fault planes showed both complex and simple rupture propagations with respect to the variation of source mechanism and faulting geometry. We calculated low stress drop

Stress triggering of earthquakes and subsidence in the Louisiana coastal zone due to hydrocarbon production

Science.gov (United States)

Mallman, Ellen P.

This thesis presents contributions towards better understanding of the interaction between earthquakes through elastic stress triggering and the role of hydrocarbon production on subsidence and land loss in southern Louisiana. The first issue addressed in this thesis is that of the role of static stress changes on earthquake triggering. The first study investigated whether observed changes in seismicity rate following the 1992 Landers, California and 1995 Kobe, Japan earthquakes are accurately predicted by elastic Coulomb stress transfer models. The analyses found that for all the tested DeltaCFS models wherever seismicity rate changes could be resolved the rate increased regardless of whether the DeltaCFS theoretically promoted or inhibited failure. The second study the common definition of a stress shadow was extended to independently test the stress shadow hypothesis using a global catalog of seismicity. The analyses indicated that while stress shadows are subtle, they are present in the global catalog. It also explains why "classical" stress shadows, similar to what was observed following the 1906 San Francisco earthquake are rarely observed for individual main shocks. The second issue addressed in this thesis is the role of hydrocarbon production on subsidence and land loss in the Louisiana Coastal Zone. The two studies in this thesis extend previous work by modeling the effect of oil and gas production in the region in two ways. First, multiple producing oil and gas fields and multiple epochs of leveling data are considered to provide constraints on predicted subsidence. Second, the role of compaction of the reservoir bounding shales on the regional subsidence signal is included. The results of the two studies on the role of hydrocarbon production on subsidence in the Louisiana Coastal Zone indicate that regional models of subsidence must include the effects of production-induced subsidence due to both sands and shales, but that this can not account for the

The 2012 Mw5.6 earthquake in Sofia seismogenic zone - is it a slow earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Raykova, Plamena; Solakov, Dimcho; Slavcheva, Krasimira; Simeonova, Stela; Aleksandrova, Irena

2017-04-01

Recently our understanding of tectonic faulting has been shaken by the discoveries of seismic tremor, low frequency earthquakes, slow slip events, and other models of fault slip. These phenomenas represent models of failure that were thought to be non-existent and theoretically impossible only a few years ago. Slow earthquakes are seismic phenomena in which the rupture of geological faults in the earth's crust occurs gradually without creating strong tremors. Despite the growing number of observations of slow earthquakes their origin remains unresolved. Studies show that the duration of slow earthquakes ranges from a few seconds to a few hundred seconds. The regular earthquakes with which most people are familiar release a burst of built-up stress in seconds, slow earthquakes release energy in ways that do little damage. This study focus on the characteristics of the Mw5.6 earthquake occurred in Sofia seismic zone on May 22nd, 2012. The Sofia area is the most populated, industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The Sofia seismic zone is located in South-western Bulgaria - the area with pronounce tectonic activity and proved crustal movement. In 19th century the city of Sofia (situated in the centre of the Sofia seismic zone) has experienced two strong earthquakes with epicentral intensity of 10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK64).The 2012 quake occurs in an area characterized by a long quiescence (of 95 years) for moderate events. Moreover, a reduced number of small earthquakes have also been registered in the recent past. The Mw5.6 earthquake is largely felt on the territory of Bulgaria and neighbouring countries. No casualties and severe injuries have been reported. Mostly moderate damages were observed in the cities of Pernik and Sofia and their surroundings. These observations could be assumed indicative for a

Aftereffects of Subduction-Zone Earthquakes: Potential Tsunami Hazards along the Japan Sea Coast.

Science.gov (United States)

Minoura, Koji; Sugawara, Daisuke; Yamanoi, Tohru; Yamada, Tsutomu

2015-10-01

The 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake is a typical subduction-zone earthquake and is the 4th largest earthquake after the beginning of instrumental observation of earthquakes in the 19th century. In fact, the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake displaced the northeast Japan island arc horizontally and vertically. The displacement largely changed the tectonic situation of the arc from compressive to tensile. The 9th century in Japan was a period of natural hazards caused by frequent large-scale earthquakes. The aseismic tsunamis that inflicted damage on the Japan Sea coast in the 11th century were related to the occurrence of massive earthquakes that represented the final stage of a period of high seismic activity. Anti-compressive tectonics triggered by the subduction-zone earthquakes induced gravitational instability, which resulted in the generation of tsunamis caused by slope failing at the arc-back-arc boundary. The crustal displacement after the 2011 earthquake infers an increased risk of unexpected local tsunami flooding in the Japan Sea coastal areas.

Global Significant Earthquake Database, 2150 BC to present

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Significant Earthquake Database is a global listing of over 5,700 earthquakes from 2150 BC to the present. A significant earthquake is classified as one that...

Silica precipitation potentially controls earthquake recurrence in seismogenic zones.

Science.gov (United States)

Saishu, Hanae; Okamoto, Atsushi; Otsubo, Makoto

2017-10-17

Silica precipitation is assumed to play a significant role in post-earthquake recovery of the mechanical and hydrological properties of seismogenic zones. However, the relationship between the widespread quartz veins around seismogenic zones and earthquake recurrence is poorly understood. Here we propose a novel model of quartz vein formation associated with fluid advection from host rocks and silica precipitation in a crack, in order to quantify the timescale of crack sealing. When applied to sets of extensional quartz veins around the Nobeoka Thrust of SW Japan, an ancient seismogenic splay fault, our model indicates that a fluid pressure drop of 10-25 MPa facilitates the formation of typical extensional quartz veins over a period of 6.6 × 10 0 -5.6 × 10 1 years, and that 89%-100% of porosity is recovered within ~3 × 10 2 years. The former and latter sealing timescales correspond to the extensional stress period (~3 × 10 1 years) and the recurrence interval of megaearthquakes in the Nankai Trough (~3 × 10 2 years), respectively. We therefore suggest that silica precipitation in the accretionary wedge controls the recurrence interval of large earthquakes in subduction zones.

Meeting the Challenge of Earthquake Risk Globalisation: Towards the Global Earthquake Model GEM (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Zschau, J.

2009-04-01

Earthquake risk, like natural risks in general, has become a highly dynamic and globally interdependent phenomenon. Due to the "urban explosion" in the Third World, an increasingly complex cross linking of critical infrastructure and lifelines in the industrial nations and a growing globalisation of the world's economies, we are presently facing a dramatic increase of our society's vulnerability to earthquakes in practically all seismic regions on our globe. Such fast and global changes cannot be captured with conventional earthquake risk models anymore. The sciences in this field are, therefore, asked to come up with new solutions that are no longer exclusively aiming at the best possible quantification of the present risks but also keep an eye on their changes with time and allow to project these into the future. This does not apply to the vulnerablity component of earthquake risk alone, but also to its hazard component which has been realized to be time-dependent, too. The challenges of earthquake risk dynamics and -globalisation have recently been accepted by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD - GSF) who initiated the "Global Earthquake Model (GEM)", a public-private partnership for establishing an independent standard to calculate, monitor and communicate earthquake risk globally, raise awareness and promote mitigation.

GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

Science.gov (United States)

Smolka, A.

2009-04-01

Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

Characterizing the structural maturity of fault zones using high-resolution earthquake locations.

Science.gov (United States)

Perrin, C.; Waldhauser, F.; Scholz, C. H.

2017-12-01

We use high-resolution earthquake locations to characterize the three-dimensional structure of active faults in California and how it evolves with fault structural maturity. We investigate the distribution of aftershocks of several recent large earthquakes that occurred on immature faults (i.e., slow moving and small cumulative displacement), such as the 1992 (Mw7.3) Landers and 1999 (Mw7.1) Hector Mine events, and earthquakes that occurred on mature faults, such as the 1984 (Mw6.2) Morgan Hill and 2004 (Mw6.0) Parkfield events. Unlike previous studies which typically estimated the width of fault zones from the distribution of earthquakes perpendicular to the surface fault trace, we resolve fault zone widths with respect to the 3D fault surface estimated from principal component analysis of local seismicity. We find that the zone of brittle deformation around the fault core is narrower along mature faults compared to immature faults. We observe a rapid fall off of the number of events at a distance range of 70 - 100 m from the main fault surface of mature faults (140-200 m fault zone width), and 200-300 m from the fault surface of immature faults (400-600 m fault zone width). These observations are in good agreement with fault zone widths estimated from guided waves trapped in low velocity damage zones. The total width of the active zone of deformation surrounding the main fault plane reach 1.2 km and 2-4 km for mature and immature faults, respectively. The wider zone of deformation presumably reflects the increased heterogeneity in the stress field along complex and discontinuous faults strands that make up immature faults. In contrast, narrower deformation zones tend to align with well-defined fault planes of mature faults where most of the deformation is concentrated. Our results are in line with previous studies suggesting that surface fault traces become smoother, and thus fault zones simpler, as cumulative fault slip increases.

Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

Science.gov (United States)

Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2018-02-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and

Multivariate statistical analysis to investigate the subduction zone parameters favoring the occurrence of giant megathrust earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Brizzi, S.; Sandri, L.; Funiciello, F.; Corbi, F.; Piromallo, C.; Heuret, A.

2018-03-01

The observed maximum magnitude of subduction megathrust earthquakes is highly variable worldwide. One key question is which conditions, if any, favor the occurrence of giant earthquakes (Mw ≥ 8.5). Here we carry out a multivariate statistical study in order to investigate the factors affecting the maximum magnitude of subduction megathrust earthquakes. We find that the trench-parallel extent of subduction zones and the thickness of trench sediments provide the largest discriminating capability between subduction zones that have experienced giant earthquakes and those having significantly lower maximum magnitude. Monte Carlo simulations show that the observed spatial distribution of giant earthquakes cannot be explained by pure chance to a statistically significant level. We suggest that the combination of a long subduction zone with thick trench sediments likely promotes a great lateral rupture propagation, characteristic of almost all giant earthquakes.

Fractal analysis of the spatial distribution of earthquakes along the Hellenic Subduction Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Papadakis, Giorgos; Vallianatos, Filippos; Sammonds, Peter

2014-05-01

The Hellenic Subduction Zone (HSZ) is the most seismically active region in Europe. Many destructive earthquakes have taken place along the HSZ in the past. The evolution of such active regions is expressed through seismicity and is characterized by complex phenomenology. The understanding of the tectonic evolution process and the physical state of subducting regimes is crucial in earthquake prediction. In recent years, there is a growing interest concerning an approach to seismicity based on the science of complex systems (Papadakis et al., 2013; Vallianatos et al., 2012). In this study we calculate the fractal dimension of the spatial distribution of earthquakes along the HSZ and we aim to understand the significance of the obtained values to the tectonic and geodynamic evolution of this area. We use the external seismic sources provided by Papaioannou and Papazachos (2000) to create a dataset regarding the subduction zone. According to the aforementioned authors, we define five seismic zones. Then, we structure an earthquake dataset which is based on the updated and extended earthquake catalogue for Greece and the adjacent areas by Makropoulos et al. (2012), covering the period 1976-2009. The fractal dimension of the spatial distribution of earthquakes is calculated for each seismic zone and for the HSZ as a unified system using the box-counting method (Turcotte, 1997; Robertson et al., 1995; Caneva and Smirnov, 2004). Moreover, the variation of the fractal dimension is demonstrated in different time windows. These spatiotemporal variations could be used as an additional index to inform us about the physical state of each seismic zone. As a precursor in earthquake forecasting, the use of the fractal dimension appears to be a very interesting future work. Acknowledgements Giorgos Papadakis wish to acknowledge the Greek State Scholarships Foundation (IKY). References Caneva, A., Smirnov, V., 2004. Using the fractal dimension of earthquake distributions and the

Extending the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Instrumental Catalogue

Science.gov (United States)

Di Giacomo, Domenico; Engdhal, Bob; Storchak, Dmitry; Villaseñor, Antonio; Harris, James

2015-04-01

After a 27-month project funded by the GEM Foundation (www.globalquakemodel.org), in January 2013 we released the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900 2009) (www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/index.php) as a special product to use for seismic hazard studies. The new catalogue was necessary as improved seismic hazard studies necessitate that earthquake catalogues are homogeneous (to the largest extent possible) over time in their fundamental parameters, such as location and magnitude. Due to time and resource limitation, the ISC-GEM catalogue (1900-2009) included earthquakes selected according to the following time-variable cut-off magnitudes: Ms=7.5 for earthquakes occurring before 1918; Ms=6.25 between 1918 and 1963; and Ms=5.5 from 1964 onwards. Because of the importance of having a reliable seismic input for seismic hazard studies, funding from GEM and two commercial companies in the US and UK allowed us to start working on the extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue both for earthquakes that occurred beyond 2009 and for earthquakes listed in the International Seismological Summary (ISS) which fell below the cut-off magnitude of 6.25. This extension is part of a four-year program that aims at including in the ISC-GEM catalogue large global earthquakes that occurred before the beginning of the ISC Bulletin in 1964. In this contribution we present the updated ISC GEM catalogue, which will include over 1000 more earthquakes that occurred in 2010 2011 and several hundreds more between 1950 and 1959. The catalogue extension between 1935 and 1949 is currently underway. The extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue will also be helpful for regional cross border seismic hazard studies as the ISC-GEM catalogue should be used as basis for cross-checking the consistency in location and magnitude of those earthquakes listed both in the ISC GEM global catalogue and regional catalogues.

Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

Science.gov (United States)

So, Emily; Spence, Robin

2013-01-01

Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

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Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

2017-12-01

The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk

Spatial Distribution of earthquakes off the coast of Fukushima Two Years after the M9 Earthquake: the Southern Area of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Rupture Zone

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Yamada, T.; Nakahigashi, K.; Shinohara, M.; Mochizuki, K.; Shiobara, H.

2014-12-01

Huge earthquakes cause vastly stress field change around the rupture zones, and many aftershocks and other related geophysical phenomenon such as geodetic movements have been observed. It is important to figure out the time-spacious distribution during the relaxation process for understanding the giant earthquake cycle. In this study, we pick up the southern rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M9.0). The seismicity rate keeps still high compared with that before the 2011 earthquake. Many studies using ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) have been doing since soon after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in order to obtain aftershock activity precisely. Here we show one of the studies at off the coast of Fukushima which is located on the southern part of the rupture area caused by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. We deployed 4 broadband type OBSs (BBOBSs) and 12 short-period type OBSs (SOBS) in August 2012. Other 4 BBOBSs attached with absolute pressure gauges and 20 SOBSs were added in November 2012. We recovered 36 OBSs including 8 BBOBSs in November 2013. We selected 1,000 events in the vicinity of the OBS network based on a hypocenter catalog published by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and extracted the data after time corrections caused by each internal clock. Each P and S wave arrival times, P wave polarity and maximum amplitude were picked manually on a computer display. We assumed one dimensional velocity structure based on the result from an active source experiment across our network, and applied time corrections every station for removing ambiguity of the assumed structure. Then we adopted a maximum-likelihood estimation technique and calculated the hypocenters. The results show that intensive activity near the Japan Trench can be seen, while there was a quiet seismic zone between the trench zone and landward high activity zone.

Subduction zone earthquake probably triggered submarine hydrocarbon seepage offshore Pakistan

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Fischer, David; José M., Mogollón; Michael, Strasser; Thomas, Pape; Gerhard, Bohrmann; Noemi, Fekete; Volkhard, Spiess; Sabine, Kasten

2014-05-01

Seepage of methane-dominated hydrocarbons is heterogeneous in space and time, and trigger mechanisms of episodic seep events are not well constrained. It is generally found that free hydrocarbon gas entering the local gas hydrate stability field in marine sediments is sequestered in gas hydrates. In this manner, gas hydrates can act as a buffer for carbon transport from the sediment into the ocean. However, the efficiency of gas hydrate-bearing sediments for retaining hydrocarbons may be corrupted: Hypothesized mechanisms include critical gas/fluid pressures beneath gas hydrate-bearing sediments, implying that these are susceptible to mechanical failure and subsequent gas release. Although gas hydrates often occur in seismically active regions, e.g., subduction zones, the role of earthquakes as potential triggers of hydrocarbon transport through gas hydrate-bearing sediments has hardly been explored. Based on a recent publication (Fischer et al., 2013), we present geochemical and transport/reaction-modelling data suggesting a substantial increase in upward gas flux and hydrocarbon emission into the water column following a major earthquake that occurred near the study sites in 1945. Calculating the formation time of authigenic barite enrichments identified in two sediment cores obtained from an anticlinal structure called "Nascent Ridge", we find they formed 38-91 years before sampling, which corresponds well to the time elapsed since the earthquake (62 years). Furthermore, applying a numerical model, we show that the local sulfate/methane transition zone shifted upward by several meters due to the increased methane flux and simulated sulfate profiles very closely match measured ones in a comparable time frame of 50-70 years. We thus propose a causal relation between the earthquake and the amplified gas flux and present reflection seismic data supporting our hypothesis that co-seismic ground shaking induced mechanical fracturing of gas hydrate-bearing sediments

Coulomb stress interactions among M≥5.9 earthquakes in the Gorda deformation zone and on the Mendocino Fracture Zone, Cascadia megathrust, and northern San Andreas fault

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Rollins, John C.; Stein, Ross S.

2010-01-01

The Gorda deformation zone, a 50,000 km2 area of diffuse shear and rotation offshore northernmost California, has been the site of 20 M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes on four different fault orientations since 1976, including four M ≥ 7 shocks. This is the highest rate of large earthquakes in the contiguous United States. We calculate that the source faults of six recent M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes had experienced ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress increases imparted by earthquakes that struck less than 9 months beforehand. Control tests indicate that ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress interactions between M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes separated by Mw = 7.3 Trinidad earthquake are consistent with the locations of M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes in the Gorda zone until at least 1995, as well as earthquakes on the Mendocino Fault Zone in 1994 and 2000. Coulomb stress changes imparted by the 1980 earthquake are also consistent with its distinct elbow-shaped aftershock pattern. From these observations, we derive generalized static stress interactions among right-lateral, left-lateral and thrust faults near triple junctions.

Analysis of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. F. Peng

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies that occurred before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC from the global ionosphere map (GIM. We analyze the possible causes of the ionospheric anomalies based on the space environment and magnetic field status. Results show that some anomalies are related to the earthquakes. By analyzing the time of occurrence, duration, and spatial distribution of these ionospheric anomalies, a number of new conclusions are drawn, as follows: earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies are not bound to appear; both positive and negative anomalies are likely to occur; and the earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies discussed in the current study occurred 0–2 days before the associated earthquakes and in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 12:00 and 20:00 local time. Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies occur mainly in areas near the epicenter. However, the maximum affected area in the ionosphere does not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter of the subsequent earthquake. The directions deviating from the epicenters do not follow a fixed rule. The corresponding ionospheric effects can also be observed in the magnetically conjugated region. However, the probability of the anomalies appearance and extent of the anomalies in the magnetically conjugated region are smaller than the anomalies near the epicenter. Deep-focus earthquakes may also exhibit very significant pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies.

Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

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Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Earle, Paul S.; Porter, Keith A.; Hearne, Mike

2011-01-01

Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.

Earthquake hazard zonation using peak ground acceleration (PGA) approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irwansyah, E; Winarko, E; Rasjid, Z E; Bekti, R D

2013-01-01

The objective of this research is to develop seismic hazard area zones in the building infrastructure of the Banda Aceh City Indonesia using peak ground acceleration (PGA) measured using global and local attenuation function. PGA is calculated using attenuation function that describes the correlation between the local ground movement intensity the earthquake magnitude and the distance from the earthquake's epicentre. The data used comes from the earthquake damage catalogue available from the Indonesia meteorology, climatology and geophysics agency (BMKG) with range from year 1973 – 2011. The research methodology consists of six steps, which is developing the grid, calculation of the distance from the epicentre to the centroid of the grid, calculation of PGA values, developing the computer application, plotting the PGA values to the centroid grid, and developing the earthquake hazard zones using kriging algorithm. The conclusion of this research is that the global attenuation function that was developed by [20] can be applied to calculate the PGA values in the city of Banda Aceh. Banda Aceh city in micro scale can be divided into three hazard zones which is low hazard zone with PGA value of 0.8767 gals up to 0.8780 gals, medium hazard zone with PGA values of 0.8781 up to 0.8793 gals and high hazard zone with PGA values of 0.8794 up to 0.8806 gals.

Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

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Silva, Vitor; Jaiswal, Kishor; Weatherill, Graeme; Crowley, Helen

2014-01-01

Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size-frequency statistics

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Ide, Satoshi; Yabe, Suguru; Tanaka, Yoshiyuki

2016-11-01

The possibility that tidal stress can trigger earthquakes is long debated. In particular, a clear causal relationship between small earthquakes and the phase of tidal stress is elusive. However, tectonic tremors deep within subduction zones are highly sensitive to tidal stress levels, with tremor rate increasing at an exponential rate with rising tidal stress. Thus, slow deformation and the possibility of earthquakes at subduction plate boundaries may be enhanced during periods of large tidal stress. Here we calculate the tidal stress history, and specifically the amplitude of tidal stress, on a fault plane in the two weeks before large earthquakes globally, based on data from the global, Japanese, and Californian earthquake catalogues. We find that very large earthquakes, including the 2004 Sumatran, 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, tend to occur near the time of maximum tidal stress amplitude. This tendency is not obvious for small earthquakes. However, we also find that the fraction of large earthquakes increases (the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases) as the amplitude of tidal shear stress increases. The relationship is also reasonable, considering the well-known relationship between stress and the b-value. This suggests that the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels. We conclude that large earthquakes are more probable during periods of high tidal stress.

What role did the Hikurangi subduction zone play in the M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake?

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Wallace, L. M.; Hamling, I. J.; Kaneko, Y.; Fry, B.; Clark, K.; Bannister, S. C.; Ellis, S. M.; Francois-Holden, C.; Hreinsdottir, S.; Mueller, C.

2017-12-01

The 2016 M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake ruptured at least a dozen faults in the northern South Island of New Zealand, within the transition from the Hikurangi subduction zone (in the North Island) to the transpressive Alpine Fault (in the central South Island). The role that the southern end of the Hikurangi subduction zone played (or did not play) in the Kaikoura earthquake remains one of the most controversial aspects of this spectacularly complex earthquake. Investigations using near-field seismological and geodetic data suggest a dominantly crustal faulting source for the event, while studies relying on teleseismic data propose that a large portion of the moment release is due to rupture of the Hikurangi subduction interface beneath the northern South Island. InSAR and GPS data also show that a large amount of afterslip (up to 0.5 m) occurred on the subduction interface beneath the crustal faults that ruptured in the M7.8 earthquake, during the months following the earthquake. Modeling of GPS velocities for the 20 year period prior to the earthquake indicate that interseismic coupling was occurring on the Hikurangi subduction interface beneath the northern South Island, in a similar location to the suggested coseismic and postseismic slip on the subduction interface. We will integrate geodetic, seismological, tsunami, and geological observations in an attempt to balance the seemingly conflicting views from local and teleseismic data regarding the role that the southern Hikurangi subduction zone played in the earthquake. We will also discuss the broader implications of the observed coseismic and postseismic deformation for understanding the kinematics of the southern termination of the Hikurangi subduction zone, and its role in the transition from subduction to strike-slip in the central New Zealand region.

A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

2010-01-01

We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

2010-01-01

We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

Global observation of Omori-law decay in the rate of triggered earthquakes

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Parsons, T.

2001-12-01

Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the 1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 events in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with M greater than 7.0 from the Harvard CMT catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near the main shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ~39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, triggered earthquakes obey an Omori-law rate decay that lasts between ~7-11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main-shock centroid. Earthquakes triggered by smaller quakes (foreshocks) also obey Omori's law, which is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. These observations indicate that earthquake probability calculations which include interactions from previous shocks should incorporate a transient Omori-law decay with time. In addition, a very simple model using the observed global rate change with time and spatial distribution of triggered earthquakes can be applied to immediately assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following large events, and can be in place until more sophisticated analyses are conducted.

Imaging 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake and Its Aftershock Sequence Combining Multiple Calibrated Global Seismic Arrays

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LI, B.; Ghosh, A.

2016-12-01

The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake provides a good opportunity to study the tectonics and earthquake hazards in the Himalayas, one of the most seismically active plate boundaries. Details of the seismicity patterns and associated structures in the Himalayas are poorly understood mainly due to limited instrumentation. Here, we apply a back-projection method to study the mainshock rupture and the following aftershock sequence using four large aperture global seismic arrays. All the arrays show eastward rupture propagation of about 130 km and reveal similar evolution of seismic energy radiation, with strong high-frequency energy burst about 50 km north of Kathmandu. Each single array, however, is typically limited by large azimuthal gap, low resolution, and artifacts due to unmodeled velocity structures. Therefore, we use a self-consistent empirical calibration method to combine four different arrays to image the Gorkha event. It greatly improves the resolution, can better track rupture and reveal details that cannot be resolved by any individual array. In addition, we also use the same arrays at teleseismic distances and apply a back-projection technique to detect and locate the aftershocks immediately following the Gorkha earthquake. We detect about 2.5 times the aftershocks recorded by the Advance National Seismic System comprehensive earthquake catalog during the 19 days following the mainshock. The aftershocks detected by the arrays show an east-west trend in general, with majority of the aftershocks located at the eastern part of the rupture patch and surrounding the rupture zone of the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock. Overall spatiotemporal aftershock pattern agrees well with global catalog, with our catalog showing more details relative to the standard global catalog. The improved aftershock catalog enables us to better study the aftershock dynamics, stress evolution in this region. Moreover, rapid and better imaging of aftershock distribution may aid rapid response

Finite element models of earthquake cycles in mature strike-slip fault zones

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Lynch, John Charles

The research presented in this dissertation is on the subject of strike-slip earthquakes and the stresses that build and release in the Earth's crust during earthquake cycles. Numerical models of these cycles in a layered elastic/viscoelastic crust are produced using the finite element method. A fault that alternately sticks and slips poses a particularly challenging problem for numerical implementation, and a new contact element dubbed the "Velcro" element was developed to address this problem (Appendix A). Additionally, the finite element code used in this study was bench-marked against analytical solutions for some simplified problems (Chapter 2), and the resolving power was tested for the fault region of the models (Appendix B). With the modeling method thus developed, there are two main questions posed. First, in Chapter 3, the effect of a finite-width shear zone is considered. By defining a viscoelastic shear zone beneath a periodically slipping fault, it is found that shear stress concentrates at the edges of the shear zone and thus causes the stress tensor to rotate into non-Andersonian orientations. Several methods are used to examine the stress patterns, including the plunge angles of the principal stresses and a new method that plots the stress tensor in a manner analogous to seismic focal mechanism diagrams. In Chapter 4, a simple San Andreas-like model is constructed, consisting of two great earthquake producing faults separated by a freely-slipping shorter fault. The model inputs of lower crustal viscosity, fault separation distance, and relative breaking strengths are examined for their effect on fault communication. It is found that with a lower crustal viscosity of 1018 Pa s (in the lower range of estimates for California), the two faults tend to synchronize their earthquake cycles, even in the cases where the faults have asymmetric breaking strengths. These models imply that postseismic stress transfer over hundreds of kilometers may play a

Preliminary earthquake locations in the Kenai Peninsula recorded by the MOOS Array and their relationship to structure in the 1964 great earthquake zone

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Li, J.; Abers, G. A.; Christensen, D. H.; Kim, Y.; Calkins, J. A.

2011-12-01

Earthquakes in subduction zones are mostly generated at the interface between the subducting and overlying plates. In 2006-2009, the MOOS (Multidisciplinary Observations Of Subduction) seismic array was deployed around the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, consisting of 34 broadband seismometers recording for 1-3 years. This region spans the eastern end of the Aleutian megathrust that ruptured in the 1964 Mw 9.2 great earthquake, the second largest recorded earthquake, and ongoing seismicity is abundant. Here, we report an initial analysis of seismicity recorded by MOOS, in the context of preliminary imaging. There were 16,462 events detected in one year from initial STA/LTA signal detections and subsequent event associations from the MOOS Array. We manually reviewed them to eliminate distant earthquakes and noise, leaving 11,879 local earthquakes. To refine this catalog, an adaptive auto-regressive onset estimation algorithm was applied, doubling the original dataset and producing 20,659 P picks and 22,999 S picks for one month (September 2007). Inspection shows that this approach lead to almost negligible false alarms and many more events than hand picking. Within the well-sampled part of the array, roughly 200 km by 300 km, we locate 250% more earthquakes for one month than the permanent network catalog, or 10 earthquakes per day on this patch of the megathrust. Although the preliminary locations of earthquakes still show some scatter, we can see a concentration of events in a ~20-km-wide belt, part of which can be interpreted as seismogenic thrust zone. In conjunction with the seismicity study, we are imaging the plate interface with receiver functions. The main seismicity zone corresponds to the top of a low-velocity layer imaged in receiver functions, nominally attributed to the top of the downgoing plate. As we refine velocity models and apply relative relocation algorithms, we expect to improve the precision of the locations substantially. When combined with image

Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

How fault geometry controls earthquake magnitude

Science.gov (United States)

Bletery, Q.; Thomas, A.; Karlstrom, L.; Rempel, A. W.; Sladen, A.; De Barros, L.

2016-12-01

Recent large megathrust earthquakes, such as the Mw9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in 2004 and the Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in 2011, astonished the scientific community. The first event occurred in a relatively low-convergence-rate subduction zone where events of its size were unexpected. The second event involved 60 m of shallow slip in a region thought to be aseismicaly creeping and hence incapable of hosting very large magnitude earthquakes. These earthquakes highlight gaps in our understanding of mega-earthquake rupture processes and the factors controlling their global distribution. Here we show that gradients in dip angle exert a primary control on mega-earthquake occurrence. We calculate the curvature along the major subduction zones of the world and show that past mega-earthquakes occurred on flat (low-curvature) interfaces. A simplified analytic model demonstrates that shear strength heterogeneity increases with curvature. Stress loading on flat megathrusts is more homogeneous and hence more likely to be released simultaneously over large areas than on highly-curved faults. Therefore, the absence of asperities on large faults might counter-intuitively be a source of higher hazard.

Electromagnetic Energy Released in the Subduction (Benioff) Zone in Weeks Previous to Earthquake Occurrence in Central Peru and the Estimation of Earthquake Magnitudes.

Science.gov (United States)

Heraud, J. A.; Centa, V. A.; Bleier, T.

2017-12-01

During the past four years, magnetometers deployed in the Peruvian coast have been providing evidence that the ULF pulses received are indeed generated at the subduction or Benioff zone and are connected with the occurrence of earthquakes within a few kilometers of the source of such pulses. This evidence was presented at the AGU 2015 Fall meeting, showing the results of triangulation of pulses from two magnetometers located in the central area of Peru, using data collected during a two-year period. Additional work has been done and the method has now been expanded to provide the instantaneous energy released at the stress areas on the Benioff zone during the precursory stage, before an earthquake occurs. Collected data from several events and in other parts of the country will be shown in a sequential animated form that illustrates the way energy is released in the ULF part of the electromagnetic spectrum. The process has been extended in time and geographical places. Only pulses associated with the occurrence of earthquakes are taken into account in an area which is highly associated with subduction-zone seismic events and several pulse parameters have been used to estimate a function relating the magnitude of the earthquake with the value of a function generated with those parameters. The results shown, including the animated data video, constitute additional work towards the estimation of the magnitude of an earthquake about to occur, based on electromagnetic pulses that originated at the subduction zone. The method is providing clearer evidence that electromagnetic precursors in effect conveys physical and useful information prior to the advent of a seismic event

Detection of Repeating Earthquakes within the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using 2013-2014 Cascadia Initiative Amphibious Network Data

Science.gov (United States)

Kenefic, L.; Morton, E.; Bilek, S.

2017-12-01

It is well known that subduction zones create the largest earthquakes in the world, like the magnitude 9.5 Chile earthquake in 1960, or the more recent 9.1 magnitude Japan earthquake in 2011, both of which are in the top five largest earthquakes ever recorded. However, off the coast of the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S., the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) remains relatively quiet and modern seismic instruments have not recorded earthquakes of this size in the CSZ. The last great earthquake, a magnitude 8.7-9.2, occurred in 1700 and is constrained by written reports of the resultant tsunami in Japan and dating a drowned forest in the U.S. Previous studies have suggested the margin is most likely segmented along-strike. However, variations in frictional conditions in the CSZ fault zone are not well known. Geodetic modeling indicates that the locked seismogenic zone is likely completely offshore, which may be too far from land seismometers to adequately detect related seismicity. Ocean bottom seismometers, as part of the Cascadia Initiative Amphibious Network, were installed directly above the inferred seismogenic zone, which we use to better detect small interplate seismicity. Using the subspace detection method, this study looks to find new seismogenic zone earthquakes. This subspace detection method uses multiple previously known event templates concurrently to scan through continuous seismic data. Template events that make up the subspace are chosen from events in existing catalogs that likely occurred along the plate interface. Corresponding waveforms are windowed on the nearby Cascadia Initiative ocean bottom seismometers and coastal land seismometers for scanning. Detections that are found by the scan are similar to the template waveforms based upon a predefined threshold. Detections are then visually examined to determine if an event is present. The presence of repeating event clusters can indicate persistent seismic patches, likely corresponding to

Slow Earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone Detected by Multiple Mini Seismic Arrays

Science.gov (United States)

LI, B.; Ghosh, A.; Thurber, C. H.; Lanza, F.

2017-12-01

The Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone is one of the most seismically and volcanically active plate boundaries on earth. Compared to other subduction zones, the slow earthquakes, such as tectonic tremors (TTs) and low frequency earthquakes (LFEs), are relatively poorly studied due to the limited data availability and difficult logistics. The analysis of two-months of continuous data from a mini array deployed in 2012 shows abundant tremor and LFE activities under Unalaska Island that is heterogeneously distributed [Li & Ghosh, 2017]. To better study slow earthquakes and understand their physical characteristics in the study region, we deployed a hybrid array of arrays, consisting of three well-designed mini seismic arrays and five stand alone stations, in the Unalaska Island in 2014. They were operational for between one and two years. Using the beam back-projection method [Ghosh et al., 2009, 2012], we detect continuous tremor activities for over a year when all three arrays are running. The sources of tremors are located south of the Unalaska and Akutan Islands, at the eastern and down-dip edge of the rupture zone of the 1957 Mw 8.6 earthquake, and they are clustered in several patches, with a gap between the two major clusters. Tremors show multiple migration patterns with propagation in both along-strike and dip directions and a wide range of velocities. We also identify tens of LFE families and use them as templates to search for repeating LFE events with the matched-filter method. Hundreds to thousands of LFEs for each family are detected and their activities are spatiotemporally consistent with tremor activities. The array techniques are revealing a near-continuous tremor activity in this area with remarkable spatiotemporal details. It helps us to better recognize the physical properties of the transition zone, provides new insights into the slow earthquake activities in this area, and explores their relation with the local earthquakes and the potential slow

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-07-15

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

IDENTIFICATION OF EARTHQUAKE AFTERSHOCK AND SWARM SEQUENCES IN THE BAIKAL RIFT ZONE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. A. Radziminovich

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The catalog of earthquakes (КR³6.6 which occurred in the Baikal rift zone (BRZ was declastered, and the results are presented in the article. Aftershocks of seismic events (КR³12.5 were determined by the software developed by V.B. Smirnov (Lomonosov Moscow State University with application of the algorithm co-authored by G.M. Molchan and O.E. Dmitrieva. To ensure proper control of the software application, aftershocks were also selected manually. The results of declustering show that aftershocks of the earthquakes (КR³12.5 account for about 25 per cent of all seismic events in the regional catalog. Aftershocks accompanied 90 per cent of all the earthquakes considered as main shocks. Besides, earthquake swarms, including events with КR³11, were identified. The results of this study show that, in the BRZ, the swarms and strong events with aftershocks are not spatially separated, and this conclusion differs from the views of the previous studies that reviewed data from a shorter observation period. Moreover, it is noted that the swarms may consist of several main shocks accompanied by aftershocks. The data accumulated over the last fifty years of instrumental observations support the conclusion made earlier that the swarms in BRZ occur mainly in the north-eastward direction from Lake Baikal and also confirm the trend of a small number of aftershocks accompanying earthquakes in the south-western part of the Baikal rift zone.

Development of the Global Earthquake Model’s neotectonic fault database

Science.gov (United States)

Christophersen, Annemarie; Litchfield, Nicola; Berryman, Kelvin; Thomas, Richard; Basili, Roberto; Wallace, Laura; Ries, William; Hayes, Gavin P.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Yoshioka, Toshikazu; Koehler, Richard D.; Clark, Dan; Wolfson-Schwehr, Monica; Boettcher, Margaret S.; Villamor, Pilar; Horspool, Nick; Ornthammarath, Teraphan; Zuñiga, Ramon; Langridge, Robert M.; Stirling, Mark W.; Goded, Tatiana; Costa, Carlos; Yeats, Robert

2015-01-01

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) aims to develop uniform, openly available, standards, datasets and tools for worldwide seismic risk assessment through global collaboration, transparent communication and adapting state-of-the-art science. GEM Faulted Earth (GFE) is one of GEM’s global hazard module projects. This paper describes GFE’s development of a modern neotectonic fault database and a unique graphical interface for the compilation of new fault data. A key design principle is that of an electronic field notebook for capturing observations a geologist would make about a fault. The database is designed to accommodate abundant as well as sparse fault observations. It features two layers, one for capturing neotectonic faults and fold observations, and the other to calculate potential earthquake fault sources from the observations. In order to test the flexibility of the database structure and to start a global compilation, five preexisting databases have been uploaded to the first layer and two to the second. In addition, the GFE project has characterised the world’s approximately 55,000 km of subduction interfaces in a globally consistent manner as a basis for generating earthquake event sets for inclusion in earthquake hazard and risk modelling. Following the subduction interface fault schema and including the trace attributes of the GFE database schema, the 2500-km-long frontal thrust fault system of the Himalaya has also been characterised. We propose the database structure to be used widely, so that neotectonic fault data can make a more complete and beneficial contribution to seismic hazard and risk characterisation globally.

The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

Science.gov (United States)

Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

2012-01-01

In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

Interaction of the san jacinto and san andreas fault zones, southern california: triggered earthquake migration and coupled recurrence intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders, C O

1993-05-14

Two lines of evidence suggest that large earthquakes that occur on either the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) or the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) may be triggered by large earthquakes that occur on the other. First, the great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake in the SAFZ seems to have triggered a progressive sequence of earthquakes in the SJFZ. These earthquakes occurred at times and locations that are consistent with triggering by a strain pulse that propagated southeastward at a rate of 1.7 kilometers per year along the SJFZ after the 1857 earthquake. Second, the similarity in average recurrence intervals in the SJFZ (about 150 years) and in the Mojave segment of the SAFZ (132 years) suggests that large earthquakes in the northern SJFZ may stimulate the relatively frequent major earthquakes on the Mojave segment. Analysis of historic earthquake occurrence in the SJFZ suggests little likelihood of extended quiescence between earthquake sequences.

Dynamic strains for earthquake source characterization

Science.gov (United States)

Barbour, Andrew J.; Crowell, Brendan W

2017-01-01

Strainmeters measure elastodynamic deformation associated with earthquakes over a broad frequency band, with detection characteristics that complement traditional instrumentation, but they are commonly used to study slow transient deformation along active faults and at subduction zones, for example. Here, we analyze dynamic strains at Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) borehole strainmeters (BSM) associated with 146 local and regional earthquakes from 2004–2014, with magnitudes from M 4.5 to 7.2. We find that peak values in seismic strain can be predicted from a general regression against distance and magnitude, with improvements in accuracy gained by accounting for biases associated with site–station effects and source–path effects, the latter exhibiting the strongest influence on the regression coefficients. To account for the influence of these biases in a general way, we include crustal‐type classifications from the CRUST1.0 global velocity model, which demonstrates that high‐frequency strain data from the PBO BSM network carry information on crustal structure and fault mechanics: earthquakes nucleating offshore on the Blanco fracture zone, for example, generate consistently lower dynamic strains than earthquakes around the Sierra Nevada microplate and in the Salton trough. Finally, we test our dynamic strain prediction equations on the 2011 M 9 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake, specifically continuous strain records derived from triangulation of 137 high‐rate Global Navigation Satellite System Earth Observation Network stations in Japan. Moment magnitudes inferred from these data and the strain model are in agreement when Global Positioning System subnetworks are unaffected by spatial aliasing.

Air quality in developing world disaster and conflict zones--the case of post-earthquake Haiti.

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Mary E; Rappaport, Ann

2014-10-15

Data on air quality are remarkably limited in the poorest of the world's countries. This is especially true for post-conflict and disaster zones, where international relief efforts focus largely on more salient public health challenges such as water and sanitation, infectious diseases, and housing. Using post-earthquake Haiti as the example case, this commentary explores air quality challenges in the developing world, highlighting concerns related to infrastructure damage from post-conflict and disaster settings. We contend that there is a growing and presently unmet need for further research and attention from the global health community to address these issues. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Effects of Zoning Regulations along Fault Zone Areas on Land Development and Property Values after the 921 Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tzu-Ling Chen

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Earthquakes are widely recognized as unpredictable and infrequent disasters that result in serious impacts on human settlements. Land use planning is one non-structural measure used to eliminate disaster risk by steering future development away from the existing built environment and enforcing particular structural engineering measures according to the disaster risk. However, arguments have arisen about applying land use planning to earthquake risk areas, as this serves as a type of disaster risk information disclosure that might impact the willingness to develop land or property value. Therefore, this study uses the spatial autocorrelation coefficient to examine the impact of land use planning on both land use and property transactions in the Chelungpu fault zone area (15 m from each side of the fault line in Taiwan. The overall impacts with and without zoning regulation in the fault zone area are explored. The results demonstrate that parcels that changed to building use in the earlier time period (1995–2008 are located distant from those maintaining the same building use, whereas, later, building use (2008–2014 is located on or nearby the fault zone area. In addition, the most recently constructed buildings are located in or close to the fault zone area and have a relatively higher property price. The legal zoning regulation along the fault zone for building use requires lower height and less intensive building, which might help mitigate the potential impact of future earthquakes.

Discovery of amorphous carbon veins in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake fault zone: implications for the fault weakening mechanism

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, J.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, B.; Li, H.

2013-12-01

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake generated 270- and 80-km-long surface ruptures along Yingxiu-Beichuan fault and Guanxian-Anxian fault, respectively. At the outcrop near Hongkou village, southwest segment of Yingxiu-Beichuan rupture, network black amorphous carbon veins were discovered near fault planes in the 190-m-wide earthquake fault zone. These veins are mainly composed of ultrafine- and fine-grained amorphous carbon, usually narrower than 5mm and injected into faults and cracks as far as several meter. Flowage structures like asymmetrical structures around few stiff rock fragments indicate materials flew when the veins formed. Fluidization of cataclastic amorphous carbon and the powerful driving force in the veins imply high pore pressure built up during earthquakes. High pore pressure solution and graphite reported in the fault gouge (Togo et al., 2011) can lead very low dynamic friction during the Wenchuan earthquake. This deduction hypothesis is in accordance with the very low thermal abnormal measured on the principle fault zone following the Wenchuan earthquake (Mori et al., 2010). Furthermore, network amorphous carbon veins of different generations suggest similar weakening mechanism also worked on historical earthquakes in Longmenshan fault zone. Reference: Brodsky, E. E., Li, H., Mori, J. J., Kano, Y., and Xue, L., 2012, Frictional Stress Measured Through Temperature Profiles in the Wenchuan Scientific Fault Zone Drilling Project. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting. San Francisco, T44B-07 Li, H., Xu, Z., Si, J., Pei, J., Song, S., Sun, Z., and Chevalier, M., 2012, Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Scientific Drilling program (WFSD): Overview and Results. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting. San Francisco, T44B-01 Mori, J. J., Li, H., Wang, H., Kano, Y., Pei, J., Xu, Z., and Brodsky, E. E., 2010, Temperature measurements in the WFSD-1 borehole following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (MW7.9). American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting. San Francisco, T53E

Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

Science.gov (United States)

Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

2014-12-01

Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

Heterogeneous slip and rupture models of the San Andreas fault zone based upon three-dimensional earthquake tomography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Foxall, William [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

1992-11-01

Crystal fault zones exhibit spatially heterogeneous slip behavior at all scales, slip being partitioned between stable frictional sliding, or fault creep, and unstable earthquake rupture. An understanding the mechanisms underlying slip segmentation is fundamental to research into fault dynamics and the physics of earthquake generation. This thesis investigates the influence that large-scale along-strike heterogeneity in fault zone lithology has on slip segmentation. Large-scale transitions from the stable block sliding of the Central 4D Creeping Section of the San Andreas, fault to the locked 1906 and 1857 earthquake segments takes place along the Loma Prieta and Parkfield sections of the fault, respectively, the transitions being accomplished in part by the generation of earthquakes in the magnitude range 6 (Parkfield) to 7 (Loma Prieta). Information on sub-surface lithology interpreted from the Loma Prieta and Parkfield three-dimensional crustal velocity models computed by Michelini (1991) is integrated with information on slip behavior provided by the distributions of earthquakes located using, the three-dimensional models and by surface creep data to study the relationships between large-scale lithological heterogeneity and slip segmentation along these two sections of the fault zone.

Earthquake Complex Network applied along the Chilean Subduction Zone.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, F.; Pasten, D.; Comte, D.

2017-12-01

In recent years the earthquake complex networks have been used as a useful tool to describe and characterize the behavior of seismicity. The earthquake complex network is built in space, dividing the three dimensional space in cubic cells. If the cubic cell contains a hypocenter, we call this cell like a node. The connections between nodes follows the time sequence of the occurrence of the seismic events. In this sense, we have a spatio-temporal configuration of a specific region using the seismicity in that zone. In this work, we are applying complex networks to characterize the subduction zone along the coast of Chile using two networks: a directed and an undirected network. The directed network takes in consideration the time-direction of the connections, that is very important for the connectivity of the network: we are considering the connectivity, ki of the i-th node, like the number of connections going out from the node i and we add the self-connections (if two seismic events occurred successive in time in the same cubic cell, we have a self-connection). The undirected network is the result of remove the direction of the connections and the self-connections from the directed network. These two networks were building using seismic data events recorded by CSN (Chilean Seismological Center) in Chile. This analysis includes the last largest earthquakes occurred in Iquique (April 2014) and in Illapel (September 2015). The result for the directed network shows a change in the value of the critical exponent along the Chilean coast. The result for the undirected network shows a small-world behavior without important changes in the topology of the network. Therefore, the complex network analysis shows a new form to characterize the Chilean subduction zone with a simple method that could be compared with another methods to obtain more details about the behavior of the seismicity in this region.

Long-term perspectives on giant earthquakes and tsunamis at subduction zones

Science.gov (United States)

Satake, K.; Atwater, B.F.; ,

2007-01-01

Histories of earthquakes and tsunamis, inferred from geological evidence, aid in anticipating future catastrophes. This natural warning system now influences building codes and tsunami planning in the United States, Canada, and Japan, particularly where geology demonstrates the past occurrence of earthquakes and tsunamis larger than those known from written and instrumental records. Under favorable circumstances, paleoseismology can thus provide long-term advisories of unusually large tsunamis. The extraordinary Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 resulted from a fault rupture more than 1000 km in length that included and dwarfed fault patches that had broken historically during lesser shocks. Such variation in rupture mode, known from written history at a few subduction zones, is also characteristic of earthquake histories inferred from geology on the Pacific Rim. Copyright ?? 2007 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

2008-01-01

Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

How complete is the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Catalog?

Science.gov (United States)

Michael, Andrew J.

2014-01-01

The International Seismological Centre, in collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model effort, has released a new global earthquake catalog, covering the time period from 1900 through the end of 2009. In order to use this catalog for global earthquake studies, I determined the magnitude of completeness (Mc) as a function of time by dividing the earthquakes shallower than 60 km into 7 time periods based on major changes in catalog processing and data availability and applying 4 objective methods to determine Mc, with uncertainties determined by non-parametric bootstrapping. Deeper events were divided into 2 time periods. Due to differences between the 4 methods, the final Mc was determined subjectively by examining the features that each method focused on in both the cumulative and binned magnitude frequency distributions. The time periods and Mc values for shallow events are: 1900-1917, Mc=7.7; 1918-1939, Mc=7.0; 1940-1954, Mc=6.8; 1955-1963, Mc=6.5; 1964-1975, Mc=6.0; 1976-2003, Mc=5.8; and 2004-2009, Mc=5.7. Using these Mc values for the longest time periods they are valid for (e.g. 1918-2009, 1940-2009,…) the shallow data fits a Gutenberg-Richter distribution with b=1.05 and a=8.3, within 1 standard deviation, with no declustering. The exception is for time periods that include 1900-1917 in which there are only 33 events with M≥ Mc and for those few data b=2.15±0.46. That result calls for further investigations for this time period, ideally having a larger number of earthquakes. For deep events, the results are Mc=7.1 for 1900-1963, although the early data are problematic; and Mc=5.7 for 1964-2009. For that later time period, b=0.99 and a=7.3.

GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

2009-04-01

components are in the planning stages, such as the developments of a unified active fault database and earthquake catalog. The flagship activity of GEM's first year is GEM1, a focused pilot project to develop GEM's first hazard and risk modeling products and initial IT infrastructure, starting in January 2009 and ending in March 2010. GEM1 will provide core capabilities for the present and key knowledge for future development of the full GEM computing Environment and product set. We will build GEM1 largely using existing tools and datasets, connected through a unified IT infrastructure, in order to bring GEM's initial capabilities online as rapidly as possible. The Swiss Seismological Service at ETH-Zurich is leading the GEM1 effort in cooperation with partners around the world. We anticipate that GEM1's products will include: • A global compilation of regional seismic source zone models in one or more common representations • Global synthetic earthquake catalogs for use in hazard calculations • Initial set of regional and global catalogues for validation • Global hazard models in map and database forms • First compilation of global vulnerabilities and fragilities • Tools for exposure and loss assessment • Validation of results and software for existing risk assessment tools to be used in future GEM stages • Demonstration risk scenarios for target cities • First version of GEM IT infrastructure All these products will be made freely available to the greatest extent possible. For more information on GEM and GEM1, please visit http://www.globalquakemodel.org.

Frictional properties of JFAST core samples and implications for slow earthquakes at the Tohoku subduction zone

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sawai, Michiyo; Niemeijer, André R.; Hirose, Takehiro; Spiers, Christopher J.

2017-01-01

Slow earthquakes occur in the shallow (<20 km deep) part of the Tohoku subduction zone. To understand how frictional properties of the plate boundary fault affect the generation of these slow earthquakes, we conducted friction experiments using borehole samples retrieved from the plate boundary

Use of Fault Displacement Vector to Identify Future Zones of Seismicity: An Example from the Earthquakes of Nepal Himalayas.

Science.gov (United States)

Naim, F.; Mukherjee, M. K.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes occur due to fault slip in the subsurface. They can occur either as interplate or intraplate earthquakes. The region of study is the Nepal Himalayas that defines the boundary of Indian-Eurasian plate and houses the focus of the most devastating earthquakes. The aim of the study was to analyze all the earthquakes that occurred in the Nepal Himalayas upto May 12, 2015 earthquake in order to mark the regions still under stress and vulnerable for future earthquakes. Three different fault systems in the Nepal Himalayas define the tectonic set up of the area. They are: (1) Main Frontal Thrust(MFT), (2) Main Central Thrust(MCT) and (3) Main Boundary Thrust(MBT) that extend from NW to SE. Most of the earthquakes were observed to occur between the MBT and MCT. Since the thrust faults are dipping towards NE, the focus of most of the earthquakes lies on the MBT. The methodology includes estimating the dip of the fault by considering the depths of different earthquake events and their corresponding distance from the MBT. In order to carry out stress analysis on the fault, the beach ball diagrams associated with the different earthquakes were plotted on a map. Earthquakes in the NW and central region of the fault zone were associated with reverse fault slip while that on the South-Eastern part were associated with a strike slip component. The direction of net slip on the fault associated with the different earthquakes was known and from this a 3D slip diagram of the fault was constructed. The regions vulnerable for future earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya were demarcated on the 3D slip diagram of the fault. Such zones were marked owing to the fact that the slips due to earthquakes cause the adjoining areas to come under immense stress and this stress is directly proportional to the amount of slip occuring on the fault. These vulnerable zones were in turn projected on the map to show their position and are predicted to contain the epicenter of the future earthquakes.

Export Processing Zones and Global Class Formation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Neveling, Patrick

2015-01-01

This chapter is concerned with one of the most striking developments in the global political economy of capitalism after the Second World War; the rise of export processing zones and special economic zones. Building on long-term ethnohistorical research on the zones’ global spread from one zone in

Tularemia and plague survey in rodents in an earthquake zone in southeastern Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Gyuranecz, Miklós

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Earthquakes are one the most common natural disasters that lead to increased mortality and morbidity from transmissible diseases, partially because the rodents displaced by an earthquake can lead to an increased rate of disease transmission. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of plague and tularemia in rodents in the earthquake zones in southeastern Iran. METHODS: In April 2013, a research team was dispatched to explore the possible presence of diseases in rodents displaced by a recent earthquake magnitude 7.7 around the cities of Khash and Saravan in Sistan and Baluchestan Province. Rodents were trapped near and in the earthquake zone, in a location where an outbreak of tularemia was reported in 2007. Rodent serums were tested for a serological survey using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: In the 13 areas that were studied, nine rodents were caught over a total of 200 trap-days. Forty-eight fleas and 10 ticks were obtained from the rodents. The ticks were from the Hyalomma genus and the fleas were from the Xenopsylla genus. All the trapped rodents were Tatera indica. Serological results were negative for plague, but the serum agglutination test was positive for tularemia in one of the rodents. Tatera indica has never been previously documented to be involved in the transmission of tularemia. CONCLUSIONS: No evidence of the plague cycle was found in the rodents of the area, but evidence was found of tularemia infection in rodents, as demonstrated by a positive serological test for tularemia in one rodent. PMID:26602769

Earthquake spectra and near-source attenuation in the Cascadia subduction zone

Science.gov (United States)

Gomberg, J.; Creager, K.; Sweet, J.; Vidale, J.; Ghosh, A.; Hotovec, A.

2012-05-01

Models of seismic source displacement spectra are flat from zero to some corner frequency, fc, regardless of source type. At higher frequencies spectral models decay as f-1 for slow events and as f-2 for fast earthquakes. We show that at least in Cascadia, wave propagation effects likely control spectral decay rates above ˜2 Hz. We use seismograms from multiple small-aperture arrays to estimate the spectral decay rates of near-source spectra of 37 small `events' and find strong correlation between source location and decay rate. The decay rates (1) vary overall by an amount in excess of that inferred to distinguish slow sources from fast earthquakes, (2) are indistinguishable for sources separated by a few tens of km or less, and (3) separate into two populations that correlate with propagation through and outside a low-velocity zone imaged tomographically. We find that some events repeat, as is characteristic of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs), but have spectra similar to those of non-repeating earthquakes. We also find no correlation between spectral decay rates and rates of ambient tremor activity. These results suggest that earthquakes near the plate boundary, at least in Cascadia, do not distinctly separate into `slow' and `fast' classes, and correctly accounting for propagation effects is necessary to characterize sources.

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

OpenAIRE

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-01-01

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

Types of damage that could result from a great earthquake in the New Madrid, Missouri, seismic zone

Science.gov (United States)

Hopper, M.G.; Algermissen, S.T.

1984-01-01

In the winter of 1811–1812 a series of three great earthquakes occurred in the New Madrid seismic zone. In addition to the three principal shocks, at least 15 other earthquakes, Io ≥ VIII, occurred within a year of the first large earthquake on December 16, 1811. The three main shocks were felt over the entire eastern United States. They were strong enough to cause minor damage as far away as Indiana and Ohio on the north, the Carolinas on the east, and southern Mississippi on the south. They were strong enough to cause severe or structural damage in parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The section of this poster titled "Seismic history of the New Madrid region" describes what happened in the epicentral region. Fortunately, few people lived in the severely shaken area in 1811; that is not the case today. What would happen if a series of earthquakes as large and numerous as the "New Madrid" earthquakes were to occur in the New Madrid seismic zone today?

Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

2006-01-01

The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

2006-03-01

The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

Controls on Earthquake Rupture and Triggering Mechanisms in Subduction Zones

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-01

Honduras, the Tech Catholic Community, the MIT Warehouse Music Program, and the MIT Women’s Chorale. I’m extraordinarily grateful for my friends up in... Campos , 1995; Lay and Bilek, 2007]. Understanding this variation in earthquake occurrence in circum-Pacific subduction zones has been the subject of...Pacheco et al., 1993; Scholz and Campos , 1995; Abercrombie et al., 2001]. However, wide variability in seismogenic behavior exists not only between

Kamchatka subduction zone, May 2013: the Mw 8.3 deep earthquake, preceding shallow swarm and numerous deep aftershocks

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Špičák, Aleš; Vaněk, Jiří

2014-01-01

Roč. 58, č. 1 (2014), s. 76-83 ISSN 0039-3169 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : Kamchatka * deep earthquake * earthquake swarm * Wadati-Benioff zone Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.806, year: 2014

Periodic Viscous Shear Heating Instability in Fine-Grained Shear Zones: Possible Mechanism for Intermediate Depth Earthquakes and Slow Earthquakes?

Science.gov (United States)

Kelemen, P. B.; Hirth, G.

2004-12-01

creep and grain boundary sliding as a function of stress and strain, and undergoes diffusive growth during diffusion creep. For strain rates ca E-13 per second and initial temperatures ca 600 to 850 C, this model produces periodic viscous shear heating events with periods of 100's of years. Strain rates during these events approach 1 per second as temperatures reach 1400 C, so future models will incorporate inertial terms in the stress. Cooling between events returns the shear zone almost to its initial temperature, but ultimately shear zone temperature between events exceeds 850 C resulting in stable viscous creep. Back of the envelope calculations based on model results support the view that viscous deformation in both shear zone and host will be mainly via grain-size sensitive creep, and thus deformation will remain localized in shear zones. Similarly, we infer that inertial terms will remain small. Future models will test and quantify these inferences. The simple model described above provides an attractive explanation for intermediate-depth earthquakes, especially those in subduction zones that occur in a narrow thermal window (e.g., Hacker et al JGR 2003). We think that a "smoother"periodic instability might be produced via the same mechanism in weaker materials, which could provide a viscous mechanism for some slow earthquakes. By AGU, we will construct a second, simple model using quartz rheology to investigate this. Finally, coupling of viscous shear heating instabilities in the shallow mantle with brittle stick-slip deformation in the weaker, overlying crust may influence earthquake frequency.

ANALYSIS OF REGULARITIES IN DISTRIBUTION OF EARTHQUAKES BY FOCAL DISPLACEMENT IN THE KURIL-OKHOTSK REGION BEFORE THE CATASTROPHIC SIMUSHIR EARTHQUAKE OF 15 NOVEMBER 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Timofei K. Zlobin

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The catastrophic Simushir earthquake occurred on 15 November 2006 in the Kuril-Okhotsk region in the Middle Kuril Islands which is a transition zone between the Eurasian continent and the Pacific Ocean. It was followed by numerous strong earthquakes. It is established that the catastrophic earthquake was prepared on a site characterized by increased relative effective pressures which is located at the border of the low-pressure area (Figure 1.Based on data from GlobalCMT (Harvard, earthquake focal mechanisms were reconstructed, and tectonic stresses, the seismotectonic setting and the earthquakes distribution pattern were studied for analysis of the field of stresses in the region before to the Simushir earthquake (Figures 2 and 3; Table 1.Five areas of various types of movement were determined. Three of them are stretched along the Kuril Islands. It is established that seismodislocations in earthquake focal areas are regularly distributed. In each of the determined areas, displacements of a specific type (shear or reverse shear are concentrated and give evidence of the alteration and change of zones characterized by horizontal stretching and compression.The presence of the horizontal stretching and compression zones can be explained by a model of subduction (Figure 4. Detailed studies of the state of stresses of the Kuril region confirm such zones (Figure 5. Recent GeodynamicsThe established specific features of tectonic stresses before the catastrophic Simushir earthquake of 15 November 2006 contribute to studies of earthquake forecasting problems. The state of stresses and the geodynamic conditions suggesting occurrence of new earthquakes can be assessed from the data on the distribution of horizontal compression, stretching and shear areas of the Earth’s crust and the upper mantle in the Kuril region.

Fracture Modes and Identification of Fault Zones in Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Scientific Drilling Boreholes

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, C.; Pan, H.; Zhao, P.; Qin, R.; Peng, L.

2017-12-01

After suffering from the disaster of Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th, 2008, scientists are eager to figure out the structure of formation, the geodynamic processes of faults and the mechanism of earthquake in Wenchuan by drilling five holes into the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault zone and Anxian-Guanxian fault zone. Fractures identification and in-situ stress determination can provide abundant information for formation evaluation and earthquake study. This study describe all the fracture modes in the five boreholes on the basis of cores and image logs, and summarize the response characteristics of fractures in conventional logs. The results indicate that the WFSD boreholes encounter enormous fractures, including natural fractures and induced fractures, and high dip-angle conductive fractures are the most common fractures. The maximum horizontal stress trends along the borehole are deduced as NWW-SEE according to orientations of borehole breakouts and drilling-induced fractures, which is nearly parallel to the strikes of the younger natural fracture sets. Minor positive deviations of AC (acoustic log) and negative deviation of DEN (density log) demonstrate their responses to fracture, followed by CNL (neutron log), resistivity logs and GR (gamma ray log) at different extent of intensity. Besides, considering the fact that the reliable methods for identifying fracture zone, like seismic, core recovery and image logs, can often be hampered by their high cost and limited application, this study propose a method by using conventional logs, which are low-cost and available in even old wells. We employ wavelet decomposition to extract the high frequency information of conventional logs and reconstruction a new log in special format of enhance fracture responses and eliminate nonfracture influence. Results reveal that the new log shows obvious deviations in fault zones, which confirm the potential of conventional logs in fracture zone identification.

A new reference global instrumental earthquake catalogue (1900-2009)

Science.gov (United States)

Di Giacomo, D.; Engdahl, B.; Bondar, I.; Storchak, D. A.; Villasenor, A.; Bormann, P.; Lee, W.; Dando, B.; Harris, J.

2011-12-01

For seismic hazard studies on a global and/or regional scale, accurate knowledge of the spatial distribution of seismicity, the magnitude-frequency relation and the maximum magnitudes is of fundamental importance. However, such information is normally not homogeneous (or not available) for the various seismically active regions of the Earth. To achieve the GEM objectives (www.globalquakemodel.org) of calculating and communicating earthquake risk worldwide, an improved reference global instrumental catalogue for large earthquakes spanning the entire 100+ years period of instrumental seismology is an absolute necessity. To accomplish this task, we apply the most up-to-date techniques and standard observatory practices for computing the earthquake location and magnitude. In particular, the re-location procedure benefits both from the depth determination according to Engdahl and Villaseñor (2002), and the advanced technique recently implemented at the ISC (Bondár and Storchak, 2011) to account for correlated error structure. With regard to magnitude, starting from the re-located hypocenters, the classical surface and body-wave magnitudes are determined following the new IASPEI standards and by using amplitude-period data of phases collected from historical station bulletins (up to 1970), which were not available in digital format before the beginning of this work. Finally, the catalogue will provide moment magnitude values (including uncertainty) for each seismic event via seismic moment, via surface wave magnitude or via other magnitude types using empirical relationships. References Engdahl, E.R., and A. Villaseñor (2002). Global seismicity: 1900-1999. In: International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, eds. W.H.K. Lee, H. Kanamori, J.C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger, Part A, 665-690, Academic Press, San Diego. Bondár, I., and D. Storchak (2011). Improved location procedures at the International Seismological Centre, Geophys. J. Int., doi:10.1111/j

Rupture Complexity Promoted by Damaged Fault Zones in Earthquake Cycle Models

Science.gov (United States)

Idini, B.; Ampuero, J. P.

2017-12-01

Pulse-like ruptures tend to be more sensitive to stress heterogeneity than crack-like ones. For instance, a stress-barrier can more easily stop the propagation of a pulse than that of a crack. While crack-like ruptures tend to homogenize the stress field within their rupture area, pulse-like ruptures develop heterogeneous stress fields. This feature of pulse-like ruptures can potentially lead to complex seismicity with a wide range of magnitudes akin to the Gutenberg-Richter law. Previous models required a friction law with severe velocity-weakening to develop pulses and complex seismicity. Recent dynamic rupture simulations show that the presence of a damaged zone around a fault can induce pulse-like rupture, even under a simple slip-weakening friction law, although the mechanism depends strongly on initial stress conditions. Here we aim at testing if fault zone damage is a sufficient ingredient to generate complex seismicity. In particular, we investigate the effects of damaged fault zones on the emergence and sustainability of pulse-like ruptures throughout multiple earthquake cycles, regardless of initial conditions. We consider a fault bisecting a homogeneous low-rigidity layer (the damaged zone) embedded in an intact medium. We conduct a series of earthquake cycle simulations to investigate the effects of two fault zone properties: damage level D and thickness H. The simulations are based on classical rate-and-state friction, the quasi-dynamic approximation and the software QDYN (https://github.com/ydluo/qdyn). Selected fully-dynamic simulations are also performed with a spectral element method. Our numerical results show the development of complex rupture patterns in some damaged fault configurations, including events of different sizes, as well as pulse-like, multi-pulse and hybrid pulse-crack ruptures. We further apply elasto-static theory to assess how D and H affect ruptures with constant stress drop, in particular the flatness of their slip profile

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-01-01

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

Global volcanic earthquake swarm database and preliminary analysis of volcanic earthquake swarm duration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. R. McNutt

1996-06-01

Full Text Available Global data from 1979 to 1989 pertaining to volcanic earthquake swarms have been compiled into a custom-designed relational database. The database is composed of three sections: 1 a section containing general information on volcanoes, 2 a section containing earthquake swarm data (such as dates of swarm occurrence and durations, and 3 a section containing eruption information. The most abundant and reliable parameter, duration of volcanic earthquake swarms, was chosen for preliminary analysis. The distribution of all swarm durations was found to have a geometric mean of 5.5 days. Precursory swarms were then separated from those not associated with eruptions. The geometric mean precursory swarm duration was 8 days whereas the geometric mean duration of swarms not associated with eruptive activity was 3.5 days. Two groups of precursory swarms are apparent when duration is compared with the eruption repose time. Swarms with durations shorter than 4 months showed no clear relationship with the eruption repose time. However, the second group, lasting longer than 4 months, showed a significant positive correlation with the log10 of the eruption repose period. The two groups suggest that different suites of physical processes are involved in the generation of volcanic earthquake swarms.

Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

1997-01-01

the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

1994-01-01

the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

Comparisons of Source Characteristics between Recent Inland Crustal Earthquake Sequences inside and outside of Niigata-Kobe Tectonic Zone, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Somei, K.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Miyakoshi, K.

2012-12-01

After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, many M7-class inland earthquakes occurred in Japan. Some of those events (e.g., the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake) occurred in a tectonic zone which is characterized as a high strain rate zone by the GPS observation (Sagiya et al., 2000) or dense distribution of active faults. That belt-like zone along the coast in Japan Sea side of Tohoku and Chubu districts, and north of Kinki district, is called as the Niigata-Kobe tectonic zone (NKTZ, Sagiya et al, 2000). We investigate seismic scaling relationship for recent inland crustal earthquake sequences in Japan and compare source characteristics between events occurring inside and outside of NKTZ. We used S-wave coda part for estimating source spectra. Source spectral ratio is obtained by S-wave coda spectral ratio between the records of large and small events occurring close to each other from nation-wide strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and broad-band seismic network (F-net) to remove propagation-path and site effects. We carefully examined the commonality of the decay of coda envelopes between event-pair records and modeled the observed spectral ratio by the source spectral ratio function with assuming omega-square source model for large and small events. We estimated the corner frequencies and seismic moment (ratio) from those modeled spectral ratio function. We determined Brune's stress drops of 356 events (Mw: 3.1-6.9) in ten earthquake sequences occurring in NKTZ and six sequences occurring outside of NKTZ. Most of source spectra obey omega-square source spectra. There is no obvious systematic difference between stress drops of events in NKTZ zone and others. We may conclude that the systematic tendency of seismic source scaling of the events occurred inside and outside of NKTZ does not exist and the average source scaling relationship can be effective for inland crustal earthquakes. Acknowledgements: Waveform data were provided from K-NET, KiK-net and F-net operated by

Microscale cavitation as a mechanism for nucleating earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone.

Science.gov (United States)

Verberne, Berend A; Chen, Jianye; Niemeijer, André R; de Bresser, Johannes H P; Pennock, Gillian M; Drury, Martyn R; Spiers, Christopher J

2017-11-21

Major earthquakes frequently nucleate near the base of the seismogenic zone, close to the brittle-ductile transition. Fault zone rupture at greater depths is inhibited by ductile flow of rock. However, the microphysical mechanisms responsible for the transition from ductile flow to seismogenic brittle/frictional behaviour at shallower depths remain unclear. Here we show that the flow-to-friction transition in experimentally simulated calcite faults is characterized by a transition from dislocation and diffusion creep to dilatant deformation, involving incompletely accommodated grain boundary sliding. With increasing shear rate or decreasing temperature, dislocation and diffusion creep become too slow to accommodate the imposed shear strain rate, leading to intergranular cavitation, weakening, strain localization, and a switch from stable flow to runaway fault rupture. The observed shear instability, triggered by the onset of microscale cavitation, provides a key mechanism for bringing about the brittle-ductile transition and for nucleating earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone.

Variations of soil radon and thoron concentrations in a fault zone and prospective earthquakes in SW Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, T.F.; Walia, V.; Chyi, L.L.; Fu, C.C.; Chen, C.-H.; Liu, T.K.; Song, S.R.; Lee, C.Y.; Lee, M.

2005-01-01

An automatic station for soil gas monitoring was set up on an active fault zone of SW Taiwan. After more than one year of continuous measurements, some spike-like anomalous high radon and thoron concentrations could be observed. A similar soil radon spectrum was also obtained from an independent monitoring station, which was only 100m away. These anomalous peaks usually occurred a few days or weeks before the earthquakes (M L >=4.5). This indicates that variations of both soil radon and thoron can serve as useful tools for earthquake surveillance, esp. at fault zones

Repeating Deep Very Low Frequency Earthquakes: An Evidence of Transition Zone between Brittle and Ductile Zone along Plate Boundary

Science.gov (United States)

Ishihara, Y.; Yamamoto, Y.; Arai, R.

2017-12-01

Recently slow or low frequency seismic and geodetic events are focused under recognition of important role in tectonic process. The most western region of Ryukyu trench, Yaeyama Islands, is very active area of these type events. It has semiannual-like slow slip (Heki et.al., 2008; Nishimura et.al.,2014) and very frequent shallow very low frequency earthquakes near trench zone (Ando et.al.,2012; Nakamura et.al.,2014). Arai et.al.(2016) identified clear reverse phase discontinuity along plate boundary by air-gun survey, suggesting existence of low velocity layer including fluid. The subducting fluid layer is considered to control slip characteristics. On the other hand, deep low frequency earthquake and tremor observed at south-western Honshu and Shikoku of Japan are not identified well due to lack of high-quality seismic network. A broadband seismic station(ISG/PS) of Pacific21 network is operating in last 20 years that locates on occurrence potential area of low frequency earthquake. We tried to review continuous broadband record, searching low frequency earthquakes. In pilot survey, we found three very low frequency seismic events which are dominant in less than 0.1Hz component and are not listed in earthquake catalogue. Source locates about 50km depth and at transition area between slow slip event and active area of general earthquake along plate boundary. To detect small and/or hidden very low frequency earthquake, we applied matched filter analysis to continuous three components waveform data using pre-reviewed seismogram as template signal. 12 events with high correlation are picked up in last 10 years. Most events have very similar waveform, which means characteristics of repeating deep very low frequency earthquake. The event history of very low frequency earthquake is not related with one of slow slip event in this region. In Yaeyama region, low frequency earthquake, general earthquake and slow slip event occur dividing in space and have apparent

Improving automatic earthquake locations in subduction zones: a case study for GEOFON catalog of Tonga-Fiji region

Science.gov (United States)

Nooshiri, Nima; Heimann, Sebastian; Saul, Joachim; Tilmann, Frederik; Dahm, Torsten

2015-04-01

Automatic earthquake locations are sometimes associated with very large residuals up to 10 s even for clear arrivals, especially for regional stations in subduction zones because of their strongly heterogeneous velocity structure associated. Although these residuals are most likely not related to measurement errors but unmodelled velocity heterogeneity, these stations are usually removed from or down-weighted in the location procedure. While this is possible for large events, it may not be useful if the earthquake is weak. In this case, implementation of travel-time station corrections may significantly improve the automatic locations. Here, the shrinking box source-specific station term method (SSST) [Lin and Shearer, 2005] has been applied to improve relative location accuracy of 1678 events that occurred in the Tonga subduction zone between 2010 and mid-2014. Picks were obtained from the GEOFON earthquake bulletin for all available station networks. We calculated a set of timing corrections for each station which vary as a function of source position. A separate time correction was computed for each source-receiver path at the given station by smoothing the residual field over nearby events. We begin with a very large smoothing radius essentially encompassing the whole event set and iterate by progressively shrinking the smoothing radius. In this way, we attempted to correct for the systematic errors, that are introduced into the locations by the inaccuracies in the assumed velocity structure, without solving for a new velocity model itself. One of the advantages of the SSST technique is that the event location part of the calculation is separate from the station term calculation and can be performed using any single event location method. In this study, we applied a non-linear, probabilistic, global-search earthquake location method using the software package NonLinLoc [Lomax et al., 2000]. The non-linear location algorithm implemented in NonLinLoc is less

SEISMODYNAMICS AND DEEP INTERNAL ORIGIN OF THE NORTH CHINA ZONE OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrey A. Stepashko

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Space-and-time regularities of seismicity of the North China (Tan-Lu zone are studies, and tectonic nature of strong earthquakes is analyzed. The concept of its genesis is still a matter of debate as this zone is located in the centre of the ancient SinoKorean craton, i.e. thousand kilometers away from convergent margins of Eurasia and the Pacific оcean and IndoAustralian plates (Figure 1. The information on the regional cycling dynamics [Xu, Deng, 1996] is updated. Two cycles, in which strong earthquakes (14 shocks with М≥7.0 occurred in the region under study, are distinguished, i.e. from 1500 to 1700, and from 1800 to 1980 (Figure 2. The seismodynamics of the North China zone is consistent with the Circum Pacific оcean deformation wave that occurs once in 300 years at the margin between Asia and the ocean and thus causes the strongest earthquakes (М≥8.8 and eruptions of volcanoes in the Pacific оcean belt [Vikulin et al., 2009, 2010]. This wave came to the northern regions of China in the years of 1500 and 1800 (Figure 3 and triggered seismic activity cycles. The second factor predetermining the seismicity of the Northern China is a specific structure of the region which can manifest seismic activity due to the impact of deformation waves. The genesis of the metastable structure of the region is related to tectonic restructuring of the lithosphere of the SinoKorean craton due to shear displacements in the Tan-Lu megazone. Regional variations of compositions of mantle xenoliths of the Sikhote Alin orogeny demonstrate that the latent strike of the Tan-Lu faults can be traced across the south-eastern areas of Russia to the Tatar Strait. These faults are borders of the Vshaped mantle block (400 x 1500 km (Figure 5, which composition is characterized by an anomalous content of iron and a low depletion of peridotites. The tectonic mantle block maintains its activity; being impacted by compression from the west, it is squeezed out towards

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone and the great Lisbon earthquake of 1755

Science.gov (United States)

Gutscher, M.-A.; Malod, J. A.; Rehault, J.-P.; Thiebot, E.; Contrucci, I.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.

2003-04-01

New geophysical data provide compelling evidence for an active east dipping subduction zone beneath the Gibraltar Arc. SISMAR marine seismic data in the Gulf of Cadiz image an actively deforming accretionary wedge, with east dipping thrust faults disrupting the seafloor and soleing out to an east dipping decollement. Tomographic cross-sections as well as hypocenter distribution support a continuous east dipping slab of oceanic lithosphere from the Atlantic domain to beneath the Western Alboran Sea. The great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 (felt as far away as Hamburg, the Azores and Cape Verde Islands) has the largest documented felt area of any shallow earthquake and an estimated magnitude of 8.5 - 9.0. The associated tsunami ravaged the coast of SW Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz, with run-up heights reported to have reached 5 - 15 m. While several source regions offshore SW Portugal have been proposed (e.g. - Gorringe Bank, Marques de Pombal fault), no single source appears to be able to account for the great seismic moment and the tsunami amplitude and travel-time observations. We propose the Gibraltar arc seismogenic zone to be the source of the 1755 earthquake. This hypothesis may be tested in several ways. We perform tsunami wave form modeling for a shallow east dipping fault plane with dimensions of 180 km (N-S) x 210 km (E-W) and a co-seismic slip of 20 m. For convergence rates of 1 - 2 cm/yr an event of this magnitude could recur every 1000 - 2000 years. Furthermore, the DELILA geophysical cruise is proposed for 2004 to conduct a bathymetric and seismic survey of the accretionary wedge and to sample the turbidites in the adjacent abyssal plains which record the history of great earthquakes.

Global teaching of global seismology

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, S.; Wysession, M.

2005-12-01

Our recent textbook, Introduction to Seismology, Earthquakes, & Earth Structure (Blackwell, 2003) is used in many countries. Part of the reason for this may be our deliberate attempt to write the book for an international audience. This effort appears in several ways. We stress seismology's long tradition of global data interchange. Our brief discussions of the science's history illustrate the contributions of scientists around the world. Perhaps most importantly, our discussions of earthquakes, tectonics, and seismic hazards take a global view. Many examples are from North America, whereas others are from other areas. Our view is that non-North American students should be exposed to North American examples that are type examples, and that North American students should be similarly exposed to examples elsewhere. For example, we illustrate how the Euler vector geometry changes a plate boundary from spreading, to strike-slip, to convergence using both the Pacific-North America boundary from the Gulf of California to Alaska and the Eurasia-Africa boundary from the Azores to the Mediterranean. We illustrate diffuse plate boundary zones using western North America, the Andes, the Himalayas, the Mediterranean, and the East Africa Rift. The subduction zone discussions examine Japan, Tonga, and Chile. We discuss significant earthquakes both in the U.S. and elsewhere, and explore hazard mitigation issues in different contexts. Both comments from foreign colleagues and our experience lecturing overseas indicate that this approach works well. Beyond the specifics of our text, we believe that such a global approach is facilitated by the international traditions of the earth sciences and the world youth culture that gives students worldwide common culture. For example, a video of the scene in New Madrid, Missouri that arose from a nonsensical earthquake prediction in 1990 elicits similar responses from American and European students.

Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, Paul S.; Wald, David J.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Allen, Trevor I.; Hearne, Michael G.; Marano, Kristin D.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Fee, Jeremy

2009-01-01

Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population.

Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: A quantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Marano, K.D.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.

2010-01-01

This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER's overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Kinematics of the 2015 San Ramon, California earthquake swarm: Implications for fault zone structure and driving mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Lian; Bürgmann, Roland; Shelly, David R.; Johnson, Christopher W.; Taira, Taka'aki

2018-05-01

Earthquake swarms represent a sudden increase in seismicity that may indicate a heterogeneous fault-zone, the involvement of crustal fluids and/or slow fault slip. Swarms sometimes precede major earthquake ruptures. An earthquake swarm occurred in October 2015 near San Ramon, California in an extensional right step-over region between the northern Calaveras Fault and the Concord-Mt. Diablo fault zone, which has hosted ten major swarms since 1970. The 2015 San Ramon swarm is examined here from 11 October through 18 November using template matching analysis. The relocated seismicity catalog contains ∼4000 events with magnitudes between - 0.2 zone structure with several sets of en échelon fault orientations. The migration of events along the three planar structures indicates a complex fluid and faulting interaction processes. We searched for correlations between seismic activity and tidal stresses and found some suggestive features, but nothing that we can be confident is statistically significant.

The effect of compliant prisms on subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis

Science.gov (United States)

Lotto, Gabriel C.; Dunham, Eric M.; Jeppson, Tamara N.; Tobin, Harold J.

2017-01-01

Earthquakes generate tsunamis by coseismically deforming the seafloor, and that deformation is largely controlled by the shallow rupture process. Therefore, in order to better understand how earthquakes generate tsunamis, one must consider the material structure and frictional properties of the shallowest part of the subduction zone, where ruptures often encounter compliant sedimentary prisms. Compliant prisms have been associated with enhanced shallow slip, seafloor deformation, and tsunami heights, particularly in the context of tsunami earthquakes. To rigorously quantify the role compliant prisms play in generating tsunamis, we perform a series of numerical simulations that directly couple dynamic rupture on a dipping thrust fault to the elastodynamic response of the Earth and the acoustic response of the ocean. Gravity is included in our simulations in the context of a linearized Eulerian description of the ocean, which allows us to model tsunami generation and propagation, including dispersion and related nonhydrostatic effects. Our simulations span a three-dimensional parameter space of prism size, prism compliance, and sub-prism friction - specifically, the rate-and-state parameter b - a that determines velocity-weakening or velocity-strengthening behavior. We find that compliant prisms generally slow rupture velocity and, for larger prisms, generate tsunamis more efficiently than subduction zones without prisms. In most but not all cases, larger, more compliant prisms cause greater amounts of shallow slip and larger tsunamis. Furthermore, shallow friction is also quite important in determining overall slip; increasing sub-prism b - a enhances slip everywhere along the fault. Counterintuitively, we find that in simulations with large prisms and velocity-strengthening friction at the base of the prism, increasing prism compliance reduces rather than enhances shallow slip and tsunami wave height.

Investigation of Ionospheric Anomalies related to moderate Romanian earthquakes occurred during last decade using VLF/LF INFREP and GNSS Global Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Oikonomou, Christina; Haralambous, Haris; Nastase, Eduard; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Biagi, Pier Francesco; Colella, Roberto; Toma-Danila, Dragos

2017-04-01

Ionospheric TEC (Total Electron Content) variations and Low Frequency (LF) signal amplitude data prior to five moderate earthquakes (Mw≥5) occurred in Romania, in Vrancea crustal and subcrustal seismic zones, during the last decade were analyzed using observations from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and the European INFREP (International Network for Frontier Research on Earthquake Precursors) networks respectively, aiming to detect potential ionospheric anomalies related to these events and describe their characteristics. For this, spectral analysis on TEC data and terminator time method on VLF/LF data were applied. It was found that TEC perturbations appeared few days (1-7) up to few hours before the events lasting around 2-3 hours, with periods 20 and 3-5 minutes which could be associated with the impending earthquakes. In addition, in all three events the sunrise terminator times were delayed approximately 20-40 min few days prior and during the earthquake day. Acknowledgments This work was partially supported by the Partnership in Priority Areas Program - PNII, under MEN-UEFISCDI, DARING Project no. 69/2014 and the Nucleu Program - PN 16-35, Project no. 03 01

Slab Geometry and Deformation in the Northern Nazca Subduction Zone Inferred From The Relocation and Focal mechanisms of Intermediate-Depth Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Y.; Warren, L. M.; Prieto, G. A.

2015-12-01

In the northern Nazca subduction zone, the Nazca plate is subducting to the east beneath the South American Plate. At ~5.6ºN, the subducting plate has a 240-km east-west offset associated with a slab tear, called the Caldas tear, that separates the northern and southern segments. Our study seeks to better define the slab geometry and deformation in the southern segment, which has a high rate of intermediate-depth earthquakes (50-300 km) between 3.6ºN and 5.2ºN in the Cauca cluster. From Jan 2010 to Mar 2014, 228 intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Cauca cluster with local magnitude Ml 2.5-4.7 were recorded by 65 seismic stations of the Colombian National Seismic Network. We review and, if necessary, adjust the catalog P and S wave arrival picks. We use the travel times to relocate the earthquakes using a double difference relocation method. For earthquakes with Ml ≥3.8, we also use waveform modeling to compute moment tensors . The distribution of earthquake relocations shows an ~15-km-thick slab dipping to the SE. The dip angle increases from 20º at the northern edge of the cluster to 38º at the southern edge. Two concentrated groups of earthquakes extend ~40 km vertically above the general downdip trend, with a 20 km quiet gap between them at ~100 km depth. The earthquakes in the general downdip seismic zone have downdip compressional axes, while earthquakes close to the quiet gap and in the concentrated groups have an oblique component. The general decrease in slab dip angle to the north may be caused by mantle flow through the Caldas tear. The seismicity gap in the slab may be associated with an active deformation zone and the concentrated groups of earthquakes with oblique focal mechanisms could be due to a slab fold.

Imaging the 2017 MW 8.2 Tehuantepec intermediate-depth earthquake using Teleseismic P Waves

Science.gov (United States)

Brudzinski, M.; Zhang, H.; Koper, K. D.; Pankow, K. L.

2017-12-01

The September 8, 2017 MW 8.1 Tehuantepec, Mexico earthquakes in the middle American subduction zone is one of the largest intermediate-depth earthquake ever recorded and could provide an unprecedented opportunity for understanding the mechanism of intermediate-depth earthquakes. While the hypocenter and centroid depths for this earthquake are shallower than typically considered for intermediate depth earthquakes, the normal faulting mechanism consistent with down-dip extension and location within the subducting plate align with properties of intermediate depth earthquakes. Back-projection of high-frequency teleseismic P-waves from two regional arrays for this earthquake shows unilateral rupture on a southeast-northwest striking fault that extends north of the Tehuantepec fracture zone (TFZ), with an average horizontal rupture speed of 3.0 km/s and total duration of 60 s. Guided by these back-projection results, 47 globally distributed low-frequency P-waves were inverted for a finite-fault model (FFM) of slip for both nodal planes. The FFM shows a slip deficit in proximity to the extension of the TFZ, as well as the minor rupture beyond the TFZ (confirmed by the synthetic tests), which indicates that the TFZ acted as a barrier for this earthquake. Analysis of waveform misfit leads to the preference of a subvertical plane as the causative fault. The FFM shows that the majority of the rupture is above the focal depth and consists of two large slip patches: the first one is near the hypocenter ( 55 km depth) and the second larger one near 30 km depth. The distribution of the two patches spatially agrees with seismicity that defines the upper and lower zones of a double Benioff zone (DBZ). It appears there was single fault rupture across the two depth zones of the DBZ. This is uncommon because a stark aseismic zone is typically observed between the upper and lower zones of the DBZ. This finding indicates that the mechanism for intraslab earthquakes must allow for

Assessing Urban Streets Network Vulnerability against Earthquake Using GIS - Case Study: 6TH Zone of Tehran

Science.gov (United States)

Rastegar, A.

2017-09-01

Great earthquakes cause huge damages to human life. Street networks vulnerability makes the rescue operation to encounter serious difficulties especially at the first 72 hours after the incident. Today, physical expansion and high density of great cities, due to narrow access roads, large distance from medical care centers and location at areas with high seismic risk, will lead to a perilous and unpredictable situation in case of the earthquake. Zone # 6 of Tehran, with 229,980 population (3.6% of city population) and 20 km2 area (3.2% of city area), is one of the main municipal zones of Tehran (Iran center of statistics, 2006). Major land-uses, like ministries, embassies, universities, general hospitals and medical centers, big financial firms and so on, manifest the high importance of this region on local and national scale. In this paper, by employing indexes such as access to medical centers, street inclusion, building and population density, land-use, PGA and building quality, vulnerability degree of street networks in zone #6 against the earthquake is calculated through overlaying maps and data in combination with IHWP method and GIS. This article concludes that buildings alongside the streets with high population and building density, low building quality, far to rescue centers and high level of inclusion represent high rate of vulnerability, compared with other buildings. Also, by moving on from north to south of the zone, the vulnerability increases. Likewise, highways and streets with substantial width and low building and population density hold little values of vulnerability.

The ANSS response to the Mw 5.8 Central Virginia Seismic Zone earthquake of August 23, 2011

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, D. E.; Horton, S.; Benz, H.; Earle, P. S.; Withers, M. M.; Hayes, G. P.; Kim, W. Y.; Chapman, M. C.; Herrmann, R. B.; Petersen, M. D.; Williams, R. A.

2011-12-01

An Mw 5.8 earthquake (depth=6km) occurred on August 23, 2011 (17:51:04 UTC) near Mineral, Virginia, which was widely felt from Maine to Georgia along the eastern seaboard and west to Chicago and western Tennessee. The USGS tallied nearly 142,000 felt reports submitted to the Did You Feel It (DYFI) internet community intensity system, making it the most widely felt earthquake since the web-site began, and demonstrating that more people felt this earthquake than any other in U.S. history. Significant damage was reported in the epicentral area and as far away as Washington D.C. (135 km away); minor damage was reported in Baltimore (200 km). The reverse faulting earthquake occurred on a northeast-striking plane within a region of diffuse seismicity known as the Central Virginia Seismic Zone. Within the first week, the mainshock was followed by 17 aftershocks with magnitude greater than 2, including Mw 4.5, 4.2, and 3.8 events. In the days following the mainshock, 46 portable seismic stations were deployed by several organizations, making this among the best-recorded aftershock sequence in the eastern U.S. Within 24 hours of the mainshock, 8 portable stations were deployed in time to record the largest aftershock to date (M4.5). We will present the results of our post-earthquake response, including attenuation and site amplification observations using portable aftershock station data, details on the initial USGS NEIC post earthquake response products and an assessment of the seismotectonics of the Central Virginia Seismic Zone based on aftershock locations and source parameter modeling of the larger earthquakes.

Earthquake behavior of the Enriquillo fault zone, Haiti revealed by interactive terrain visualization

Science.gov (United States)

Cowgill, E.; Bernardin, T. S.; Oskin, M. E.; Bowles, C. J.; Yikilmaz, M. B.; Kreylos, O.; Elliott, A. J.; Bishop, M. S.; Gold, R. D.; Morelan, A.; Bawden, G. W.; Hamann, B.; Kellogg, L. H.

2010-12-01

The Mw 7.0 January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake ended 240 years of relative quiescence following earthquakes that destroyed Port-au-Prince in 1751 and 1770. We place the 2010 rupture in the context of past earthquakes and future hazards by using remote analysis of airborne LiDAR to observe the topographic expression of active faulting and develop a new conceptual model for the earthquake behavior of the eastern Enriquillo fault zone (EFZ). In this model, the 2010 event occupies a long-lived segment boundary at a stepover within the EFZ separating fault segments that likely ruptured in 1751 and 1770, explaining both past clustering and the lack of 2010 surface rupture. Immediately following the 2010 earthquake, an airborne LiDAR point cloud containing over 2.7 billion point measurements of surface features was collected by the Rochester Inst. of Technology. To analyze these data, we capitalize on the human capacity to visually identify meaningful patterns embedded in noisy data by conducting interactive visual analysis of the entire 66.8 GB Haiti terrain data in a 4-sided, 800 ft3 immersive virtual-reality environment at the UC Davis KeckCAVES using the software tools LiDAR Viewer (to analyze point cloud data) and Crusta (for 3D surficial geologic mapping on DEM data). We discovered and measured landforms displaced by past surface-rupturing earthquakes and remotely characterized the regional fault geometry. Our analysis of the ~50 km long reach of EFZ spanning the 2010 epicenter indicates that geomorphic evidence of active faulting is clearer east of the epicenter than to the west. West of the epicenter, and in the region of the 2010 rupture, the fault is poorly defined along an embayed, low-relief range front, with little evidence of recent surface rupture. In contrast, landform offsets of 6 to 50 m along the reach of the EFZ east of the epicenter and closest to Port-au-Prince attest to repeated recent surface-rupturing earthquakes here. Specifically, we found and

Spatial distribution of the earthquakes in the Vrancea zone and tectonic correlations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bala, Andrei; Diaconescu, Mihai; Biter, Mircea

2001-01-01

The tectonic plate evolution of the whole Carpathian Arc and Pannonian back-arc Basin indicates that at least three tectonic units have been in contact and at the same time in relative motion: the East European Plate, the Moesian plate and the Intra-Alpine plate. There were plotted graphically all the earthquake hypocentres from the period 1982-2000 situated in an area which includes Vrancea zone. Because of the great number of events plotted, they were found to describe well the limits of the tectonic plate (plate fragment?) which is supposed to be subducted in this region down to 200 km depth. The hypothesis of a plate fragment delaminated from an older subduction can not be overruled. These limits were put in direct relations with the known geology and tectonics of the area. Available fault plane solutions for the crustal earthquakes are analyzed in correlation with the main faults of the area. A graphic plot of the sunspot number is correlated with the occurrence of the earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5. (authors)

Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)

Science.gov (United States)

Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Allen, T.I.; Jaiswal, K.; Porter, K.; Hearne, M.

2008-01-01

The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake origins and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts. Current PAGER notifications and Web pages estimate the population exposed to each seismic intensity level. In addition to being a useful indicator of potential impact, PAGER’s intensity/exposure display provides a new standard in the dissemination of rapid earthquake information. We are currently developing and testing a more comprehensive alert system that will include casualty estimates. This is motivated by the idea that an estimated range of possible number of deaths will aid in decisions regarding humanitarian response. Underlying the PAGER exposure and loss models are global earthquake ShakeMap shaking estimates, constrained as quickly as possible by finite-fault modeling and observed ground motions and intensities, when available. Loss modeling is being developed comprehensively with a suite of candidate models that range from fully empirical to largely analytical approaches. Which of these models is most appropriate for use in a particular earthquake depends on how much is known about local building stocks and their vulnerabilities. A first-order country-specific global building inventory has been developed, as have corresponding vulnerability functions. For calibrating PAGER loss models, we have systematically generated an Atlas of 5,000 ShakeMaps for significant global earthquakes during the last 36 years. For many of these, auxiliary earthquake source and shaking intensity data are also available. Refinements to the loss models are ongoing

Deformation of conjugate compliant fault zones induced by the 2013 Mw7.7 Baluchistan (Pakistan) earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Dutta, Rishabh; Wang, Teng; Feng, Guangcai; Harrington, Jonathan; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes; Jónsson, Sigurjón

2017-04-01

Strain localizations in compliant fault zones (with elastic moduli lower than the surrounding rocks) induced by nearby earthquakes have been detected using geodetic observations in a few cases in the past. Here we observe small-scale changes in interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements along multiple conjugate faults near the rupture of the 2013 Mw7.7 Baluchistan (Pakistan) earthquake. After removing the main coseismic deformation signal in the interferograms and correcting them for topography-related phase, we observe 2-3 cm signal along several conjugate faults that are 15-30 km from the mainshock fault rupture. These conjugate compliant faults have strikes of N30°E and N45°W. The sense of motion indicates left-lateral deformation across the N30°E faults and right-lateral deformation across the N45°W faults, which suggests the conjugate faults were subjected to extensional coseismic stresses along the WSW-ENE direction. The spacing between the different sets of faults is around 5 to 8 km. We explain the observed strain localizations as an elastic response of the compliant conjugate faults induced by the Baluchistan earthquake. Using 3D Finite Element models (FEM), we impose coseismic static displacements due to the earthquake along the boundaries of the FEM domain to reproduce the coseismic stress changes acting across the compliant faults. The InSAR measurements are used to constrain the geometry and rigidity variations of the compliant faults with respect to the surrounding rocks. The best fitting models show the compliant fault zones to have a width of 0.5 km to 2 km and a reduction of the shear modulus by a factor of 3 to 4. Our study yields similar values as were found for compliant fault zones near the 1992 Landers and the 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes in California, although here the strain localization is occurring on more complex conjugate sets of faults.

The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Smolka, A. J.

2015-12-01

Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

Stratigraphic and microfossil evidence for a 4500-year history of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis at Yaquina River estuary, Oregon, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Graehl, Nicholas A; Kelsey, Harvey M.; Witter, Robert C.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Engelhart, Simon E.

2015-01-01

The Sallys Bend swamp and marsh area on the central Oregon coast onshore of the Cascadia subduction zone contains a sequence of buried coastal wetland soils that extends back ∼4500 yr B.P. The upper 10 of the 12 soils are represented in multiple cores. Each soil is abruptly overlain by a sandy deposit and then, in most cases, by greater than 10 cm of mud. For eight of the 10 buried soils, times of soil burial are constrained through radiocarbon ages on fine, delicate detritus from the top of the buried soil; for two of the buried soils, diatom and foraminifera data constrain paleoenvironment at the time of soil burial.We infer that each buried soil represents a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake because the soils are laterally extensive and abruptly overlain by sandy deposits and mud. Preservation of coseismically buried soils occurred from 4500 yr ago until ∼500–600 yr ago, after which preservation was compromised by cessation of gradual relative sea-level rise, which in turn precluded drowning of marsh soils during instances of coseismic subsidence. Based on grain-size and microfossil data, sandy deposits overlying buried soils accumulated immediately after a subduction zone earthquake, during tsunami incursion into Sallys Bend. The possibility that the sandy deposits were sourced directly from landslides triggered upstream in the Yaquina River basin by seismic shaking was discounted based on sedimentologic, microfossil, and depositional site characteristics of the sandy deposits, which were inconsistent with a fluvial origin. Biostratigraphic analyses of sediment above two buried soils—in the case of two earthquakes, one occurring shortly after 1541–1708 cal. yr B.P. and the other occurring shortly after 3227–3444 cal. yr B.P.—provide estimates that coseismic subsidence was a minimum of 0.4 m. The average recurrence interval of subduction zone earthquakes is 420–580 yr, based on an ∼3750–4050-yr-long record and seven to nine interearthquake

ASSESSING URBAN STREETS NETWORK VULNERABILITY AGAINST EARTHQUAKE USING GIS – CASE STUDY: 6TH ZONE OF TEHRAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Rastegar

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Great earthquakes cause huge damages to human life. Street networks vulnerability makes the rescue operation to encounter serious difficulties especially at the first 72 hours after the incident. Today, physical expansion and high density of great cities, due to narrow access roads, large distance from medical care centers and location at areas with high seismic risk, will lead to a perilous and unpredictable situation in case of the earthquake. Zone # 6 of Tehran, with 229,980 population (3.6% of city population and 20 km2 area (3.2% of city area, is one of the main municipal zones of Tehran (Iran center of statistics, 2006. Major land-uses, like ministries, embassies, universities, general hospitals and medical centers, big financial firms and so on, manifest the high importance of this region on local and national scale. In this paper, by employing indexes such as access to medical centers, street inclusion, building and population density, land-use, PGA and building quality, vulnerability degree of street networks in zone #6 against the earthquake is calculated through overlaying maps and data in combination with IHWP method and GIS. This article concludes that buildings alongside the streets with high population and building density, low building quality, far to rescue centers and high level of inclusion represent high rate of vulnerability, compared with other buildings. Also, by moving on from north to south of the zone, the vulnerability increases. Likewise, highways and streets with substantial width and low building and population density hold little values of vulnerability.

A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr [Karadeniz Technical University, Department of Geophysics, Trabzon/Turkey (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı/Turkey (Turkey)

2016-04-18

North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson method the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M{sub S}=7.3 and 1897, M{sub S}=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M{sub S} magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9) %99

A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Türker, Tuğba; Bayrak, Yusuf

2016-01-01

North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson method the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M_S=7.3 and 1897, M_S=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M_S magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9) %99 with an earthquake

Preliminary Results on Earthquake Recurrence Intervals, Rupture Segmentation, and Potential Earthquake Moment Magnitudes along the Tahoe-Sierra Frontal Fault Zone, Lake Tahoe, California

Science.gov (United States)

Howle, J.; Bawden, G. W.; Schweickert, R. A.; Hunter, L. E.; Rose, R.

2012-12-01

Utilizing high-resolution bare-earth LiDAR topography, field observations, and earlier results of Howle et al. (2012), we estimate latest Pleistocene/Holocene earthquake-recurrence intervals, propose scenarios for earthquake-rupture segmentation, and estimate potential earthquake moment magnitudes for the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone (TSFFZ), west of Lake Tahoe, California. We have developed a new technique to estimate the vertical separation for the most recent and the previous ground-rupturing earthquakes at five sites along the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments of the TSFFZ. At these sites are fault scarps with two bevels separated by an inflection point (compound fault scarps), indicating that the cumulative vertical separation (VS) across the scarp resulted from two events. This technique, modified from the modeling methods of Howle et al. (2012), uses the far-field plunge of the best-fit footwall vector and the fault-scarp morphology from high-resolution LiDAR profiles to estimate the per-event VS. From this data, we conclude that the adjacent and overlapping Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments have ruptured coseismically twice during the Holocene. The right-stepping, en echelon range-front segments of the TSFFZ show progressively greater VS rates and shorter earthquake-recurrence intervals from southeast to northwest. Our preliminary estimates suggest latest Pleistocene/ Holocene earthquake-recurrence intervals of 4.8±0.9x103 years for a coseismic rupture of the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments, located at the southeastern end of the TSFFZ. For the Rubicon Peak segment, northwest of the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments, our preliminary estimate of the maximum earthquake-recurrence interval is 2.8±1.0x103 years, based on data from two sites. The correspondence between high VS rates and short recurrence intervals suggests that earthquake sequences along the TSFFZ may initiate in the northwest part of the zone and then occur to the southeast with a lower

Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

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Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

2017-11-01

After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

Science.gov (United States)

Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

2018-04-01

After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

Fault plane orientations of deep earthquakes in the Izu-Bonin-Marianas subduction zone system

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Myhill, R.; Warren, L. M.

2011-12-01

We present the results of directivity analysis on 45 deep earthquakes within the Izu-Bonin-Marianas subduction zone between 1993 and 2011. The age of the subducting Pacific plate increases from north to south along the trench, from 120 Ma offshore Tokyo to over 150 Ma east of the Mariana Islands. The dip of the deep slab generally increases from north to south, and is steep to overturned beneath the southern Bonin Islands and Marianas. Between 34 and 26 degrees north, a peak in seismicity at 350-450 km depth marks a decrease in dip as the slab approaches the base of the upper mantle. We observe directivity for around 60 percent of the analysed earthquakes, and use the propagation characteristics to find the best fitting rupture vector. In 60-70 percent of cases with well constrained rupture directivity, the best fitting rupture vector allows discrimination of the fault plane and the auxiliary plane of the focal mechanism. The identified fault planes between 100 km and 500 km are predominantly near-horizontal or south-southwest dipping. Rotated into the plane of the slab, the fault plane poles form a single cluster, since the more steeply dipping fault planes are found within more steeply dipping sections of slab. The dominance of near-horizontal fault planes at intermediate depth agrees with results from previous studies of the Tonga and Middle-America subduction zones. However, the presence of a single preferred fault plane orientation for large deep-focus earthquakes has not been previously reported, and contrasts with the situation for deep-focus earthquakes in the Tonga-Kermadec subduction system. Ruptures tend to propagate away from the top surface of the slab. We discuss potential causes of preferred fault plane orientations within subducting slabs in the light of existing available data, and the implications for mechanisms of faulting at great depths within the Earth.

Strain-dependent Damage Evolution and Velocity Reduction in Fault Zones Induced by Earthquake Rupture

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Zhong, J.; Duan, B.

2009-12-01

Low-velocity fault zones (LVFZs) with reduced seismic velocities relative to the surrounding wall rocks are widely observed around active faults. The presence of such a zone will affect rupture propagation, near-field ground motion, and off-fault damage in subsequent earth-quakes. In this study, we quantify the reduction of seismic velocities caused by dynamic rup-ture on a 2D planar fault surrounded by a low-velocity fault zone. First, we implement the damage rheology (Lyakhovsky et al. 1997) in EQdyna (Duan and Oglesby 2006), an explicit dynamic finite element code. We further extend this damage rheology model to include the dependence of strains on crack density. Then, we quantify off-fault continuum damage distribution and velocity reduction induced by earthquake rupture with the presence of a preexisting LVFZ. We find that the presence of a LVFZ affects the tempo-spatial distribu-tions of off-fault damage. Because lack of constraint in some damage parameters, we further investigate the relationship between velocity reduction and these damage prameters by a large suite of numerical simulations. Slip velocity, slip, and near-field ground motions computed from damage rheology are also compared with those from off-fault elastic or elastoplastic responses. We find that the reduction in elastic moduli during dynamic rupture has profound impact on these quantities.

THE MISSING EARTHQUAKES OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY: RECONCILING RECURRENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATES, SOUTHERN CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

Science.gov (United States)

Patton, J. R.; Leroy, T. H.

2009-12-01

Earthquake and tsunami hazard for northwestern California and southern Oregon is predominately based on estimates of recurrence for earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone and upper plate thrust faults, each with unique deformation and recurrence histories. Coastal northern California is uniquely located to enable us to distinguish these different sources of seismic hazard as the accretionary prism extends on land in this region. This region experiences ground deformation from rupture of upper plate thrust faults like the Little Salmon fault. Most of this region is thought to be above the locked zone of the megathrust, so is subject to vertical deformation during the earthquake cycle. Secondary evidence of earthquake history is found here in the form of marsh soils that coseismically subside and commonly are overlain by estuarine mud and rarely tsunami sand. It is not currently known what the source of the subsidence is for this region; it may be due to upper plate rupture, megathrust rupture, or a combination of the two. Given that many earlier investigations utilized bulk peat for 14C age determinations and that these early studies were largely reconnaissance work, these studies need to be reevaluated. Recurrence Interval estimates are inconsistent when comparing terrestrial (~500 years) and marine (~220 years) data sets. This inconsistency may be due to 1) different sources of archival bias in marine and terrestrial data sets and/or 2) different sources of deformation. Factors controlling successful archiving of paleoseismic data are considered as this relates to geologic setting and how that might change through time. We compile, evaluate, and rank existing paleoseismic data in order to prioritize future paleoseismic investigations. 14C ages are recalibrated and quality assessments are made for each age determination. We then evaluate geologic setting and prioritize important research locations and goals based on these existing data. Terrestrial core

Stress development in heterogenetic lithosphere: Insights into earthquake processes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone

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Zhan, Yan; Hou, Guiting; Kusky, Timothy; Gregg, Patricia M.

2016-03-01

The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in the Midwestern United States was the site of several major M 6.8-8 earthquakes in 1811-1812, and remains seismically active. Although this region has been investigated extensively, the ultimate controls on earthquake initiation and the duration of the seismicity remain unclear. In this study, we develop a finite element model for the Central United States to conduct a series of numerical experiments with the goal of determining the impact of heterogeneity in the upper crust, the lower crust, and the mantle on earthquake nucleation and rupture processes. Regional seismic tomography data (CITE) are utilized to infer the viscosity structure of the lithosphere which provide an important input to the numerical models. Results indicate that when differential stresses build in the Central United States, the stresses accumulating beneath the Reelfoot Rift in the NMSZ are highly concentrated, whereas the stresses below the geologically similar Midcontinent Rift System are comparatively low. The numerical observations coincide with the observed distribution of seismicity throughout the region. By comparing the numerical results with three reference models, we argue that an extensive mantle low velocity zone beneath the NMSZ produces differential stress localization in the layers above. Furthermore, the relatively strong crust in this region, exhibited by high seismic velocities, enables the elevated stress to extend to the base of the ancient rift system, reactivating fossil rifting faults and therefore triggering earthquakes. These results show that, if boundary displacements are significant, the NMSZ is able to localize tectonic stresses, which may be released when faults close to failure are triggered by external processes such as melting of the Laurentide ice sheet or rapid river incision.

Variation of radon flux along active fault zones in association with earthquake occurrence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papastefanou, C.

2010-01-01

Radon flux measurements were carried out at three radon stations along an active fault zone in the Langadas basin, Northern Greece by various techniques for earthquake prediction studies. Specially made devices with alpha track-etch detectors (ATDs) were installed by using LR-115, type II, non-strippable cellulose nitrate films (integrating method of measurements). Continuous monitoring of radon gas exhaling from the ground was also performed by using silicon diode detectors, Barasol and Clipperton type, in association with various probes and sensors including simultaneously registration of the meteorological parameters, such as precipitation height (rainfall events), temperature and barometric pressure. The obtained radon data were studied in parallel with the data of seismic events, such as the magnitude, M L of earthquakes, the epicentral distance, the hypocentral distance and the energy released during the earthquake event occurred at the fault zone during the period of measurements to find out any association between the rad on flux and the meteorological and seismological parameters. Seismic events with magnitude M L ≥ 4.0 appeared to be preceded by large precursory signals produced a well-defined 'anomaly' (peak) of radon flux prior to the event. In the results, the radon peaks in the obtained spectra appeared to be sharp and narrow. The rise time of a radon peak, that is the time period from the onset of a radon peak until the time of radon flux maximum is about a week, while the after time, that is the time interval between the time of radon flux maximum and the time of a seismic event ranges from about 3 weeks or more.

Areas prone to slow slip events impede earthquake rupture propagation and promote afterslip

Science.gov (United States)

Rolandone, Frederique; Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu; Mothes, Patricia A.; Jarrin, Paul; Vallée, Martin; Cubas, Nadaya; Hernandez, Stephen; Plain, Morgan; Vaca, Sandro; Font, Yvonne

2018-01-01

At subduction zones, transient aseismic slip occurs either as afterslip following a large earthquake or as episodic slow slip events during the interseismic period. Afterslip and slow slip events are usually considered as distinct processes occurring on separate fault areas governed by different frictional properties. Continuous GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements following the 2016 Mw (moment magnitude) 7.8 Ecuador earthquake reveal that large and rapid afterslip developed at discrete areas of the megathrust that had previously hosted slow slip events. Regardless of whether they were locked or not before the earthquake, these areas appear to persistently release stress by aseismic slip throughout the earthquake cycle and outline the seismic rupture, an observation potentially leading to a better anticipation of future large earthquakes. PMID:29404404

A possible mechanism for earthquakes found in the mantle wedge of the Nazca subduction zone

Science.gov (United States)

Warren, L. M.; Chang, Y.; Prieto, G. A.

2017-12-01

Beneath Colombia, the Cauca cluster of intermediate-depth earthquakes extends for 200 km along the trench (3.5°N-5.5°N, 77.0°W-75.3°W) and, with 58 earthquakes per year with local magnitude ML >= 2.5, has a higher rate of seismicity than the subduction zone immediately to the north or south. By precisely locating 433 cluster earthquakes from 1/2010-3/2014 with data from the Colombian National Seismic Network, we found that the earthquakes are located both in a continuous Nazca plate subducting at an angle of 33°-43° and in the overlying mantle wedge. The mantle wedge earthquakes (12% of the earthquakes) form two isolated 40-km-tall columns extending perpendicular to the subducting slab. Using waveform inversion, we computed focal mechanisms for 69 of the larger earthquakes. The focal mechanisms are variable, but the intraslab earthquakes are generally consistent with an in-slab extensional stress axis oriented 25° counterclockwise from the down-dip direction. We suggest that the observed mantle wedge earthquakes are the result of hydrofracture in a relatively cool mantle wedge. This segment of the Nazca Plate is currently subducting at a normal angle, but Wagner et al. (2017) suggested that a flat slab slowly developed in the region between 9-5.9 Ma and persisted until 4 Ma. During flat slab subduction, the overlying mantle wedge typically cools because it is cut off from mantle corner flow. After hydrous minerals in the slab dehydrate, the dehydrated fluid is expelled from the slab and migrates through the mantle wedge. If a cool mantle wedge remains today, fluid dehydrated from the slab may generate earthquakes by hydrofracture, with the mantle wedge earthquakes representing fluid migration pathways. Dahm's (2000) model of water-filled fracture propagation in the mantle wedge shows hydrofractures propagating normal to the subducting slab and extending tens of km into the mantle wedge, as we observe.

Mw 8.5 BENGKULU EARTHQUAKES FROM CONTINUOUS GPS DATA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. A. W. Aris

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The Mw 8.5 Bengkulu earthquake of 30 September 2007 and the Mw8.6 28 March 2005 are considered amongst large earthquake ever recorded in Southeast Asia. The impact into tectonic deformation was recorded by a network of Global Positioning System (GPS Continuously Operating Reference Station (CORS within southern of Sumatra and west-coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The GPS data from the GPS CORS network has been deployed to investigate the characteristic of postseismic deformation due to the earthquakes. Analytical logarithmic and exponential function was applied to investigate the deformation decay period of postseismic deformation. This investigation provides a preliminary insight into postseismic cycle along the Sumatra subduction zone in particular and on the dynamics Peninsular Malaysia in general.

[Characteristics of Raman spectra of minerals in the veins of Wenchuan earthquake fault zone].

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Chao; Zhou, Ben-gang; Liu, Lei; Zhou, Xiao-cheng; Yi, Li; Chen, Zhi; Cui, Yue-ju; Li, Jing; Chen, Zheng-wei; Du, Jian-guo

2015-01-01

Quartz in the veins at the Shenxigou section of Wenchuan earthquake fault zone was investigated by micro-Raman spectroscopic measurement, and the distribution of compressive stress in the fault zone was estimated by the frequency shifts of the 464 cm-1 vibrational mode of quartz grains in the veins. It was showed that the 464 cm-1 peak arising from the quartz grains in the veins near the fault plane shifts by 3. 29 cm-1 , and the corresponding compressive stress is 368. 63 MPa, which is significantly lower than the stress accumulation on both sides due to multi-stage events. Stress accumulation increased with moving away from the fault plane in the footwall with the offset of the 464 cm-1 peak arising from the quartz grains in the veins increasing, which can reach 494. 77 MPa at a distance of 21 m with a high offset of 4. 40 cm-1 of the 464 cm-1 peak. The compressive stress gets the maximum value of 519.87 MPa at a distance of 10 m from the fault plane in the hanging wall with the offset of the 464 cm-1 peak arising from the quartz grains in the veins being 4. 62 cm-1, followed by a sudden drop in stress accumulation, and it drops to 359. 59 MPa at a distance of 17 m. Because of moving away from the foult plane at the edge of the foult zone, the stress drops to 359. 59 MPa with a small value of 464 cm-1 peak offset 3. 21 cm-1 at a distance of 27 m from the fault plane in the hanging wall due to the little effect by the fault activity. Therefore, the stress of Wenchuan earthquake fault zone is partially released, but the rest of the stress distribution is uneven, and there is also a high stress accumulation in somewhere in the fault zone, which reflects that the mechanical properties of the rocks in the fault zone have a characteristic of unevenness in space.

Strain Anomalies during an Earthquake Sequence in the South Iceland Seismic Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Arnadottir, T.; Haines, A. J.; Geirsson, H.; Hreinsdottir, S.

2017-12-01

The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) accommodates E-W translation due to oblique spreading between the North American/Hreppar microplate and Eurasian plate, in South Iceland. Strain is released in the SISZ during earthquake sequences that last days to years, at average intervals of 80-100 years. The SISZ is currently in the midst of an earthquake sequence that started with two M6.5 earthquakes in June 2000, and continued with two M6 earthquakes in May 2008. Estimates of geometric strain accumulation, and seismic strain release in these events indicate that they released at most only half of the strain accumulated since the last earthquake cycle in 1896-1912. Annual GPS campaigns and continuous measurements during 2001-2015 were used to calculate station velocities and strain rates from a new method using the vertical derivatives of horizontal stress (VDoHS). This new method allows higher resolution of strain rates than other (older) approaches, as the strain rates are estimated by integrating VDoHS rates obtained by inversion rather than differentiating interpolated GPS velocities. Estimating the strain rates for eight 1-2 year intervals indicates temporal and spatial variation of strain rates in the SISZ. In addition to earthquake faulting, the strain rates in the SISZ are influenced by anthropogenic signals due to geothermal exploitation, and magma movements in neighboring volcanoes - Hekla and Eyjafjallajökull. Subtle signals of post-seismic strain rate changes are seen following the June 2000 M6.5 main shocks, but interestingly, much larger strain rate variations are observed after the two May 2008 M6 main shocks. A prominent strain anomaly is evident in the epicentral area prior to the May 2008 earthquake sequence. The strain signal persists over at least 4 years in the epicentral area, leading up to the M6 main shocks. The strain is primarily extension in ESE-WNW direction (sub-parallel to the direction of plate spreading), but overall shear across the N

Subduction zone and crustal dynamics of western Washington; a tectonic model for earthquake hazards evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Stanley, Dal; Villaseñor, Antonio; Benz, Harley

1999-01-01

The Cascadia subduction zone is extremely complex in the western Washington region, involving local deformation of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate and complicated block structures in the crust. It has been postulated that the Cascadia subduction zone could be the source for a large thrust earthquake, possibly as large as M9.0. Large intraplate earthquakes from within the subducting Juan de Fuca plate beneath the Puget Sound region have accounted for most of the energy release in this century and future such large earthquakes are expected. Added to these possible hazards is clear evidence for strong crustal deformation events in the Puget Sound region near faults such as the Seattle fault, which passes through the southern Seattle metropolitan area. In order to understand the nature of these individual earthquake sources and their possible interrelationship, we have conducted an extensive seismotectonic study of the region. We have employed P-wave velocity models developed using local earthquake tomography as a key tool in this research. Other information utilized includes geological, paleoseismic, gravity, magnetic, magnetotelluric, deformation, seismicity, focal mechanism and geodetic data. Neotectonic concepts were tested and augmented through use of anelastic (creep) deformation models based on thin-plate, finite-element techniques developed by Peter Bird, UCLA. These programs model anelastic strain rate, stress, and velocity fields for given rheological parameters, variable crust and lithosphere thicknesses, heat flow, and elevation. Known faults in western Washington and the main Cascadia subduction thrust were incorporated in the modeling process. Significant results from the velocity models include delineation of a previously studied arch in the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. The axis of the arch is oriented in the direction of current subduction and asymmetrically deformed due to the effects of a northern buttress mapped in the velocity models. This

Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

2015-01-01

The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (tsunami (>10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

2015-01-01

The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

Foreshock occurrence rates before large earthquakes worldwide

Science.gov (United States)

Reasenberg, P.A.

1999-01-01

Global rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured, using earthquakes listed in the Harvard CMT catalog for the period 1978-1996. These rates are similar to rates ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering, which is based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California, and were found to exceed the California model by a factor of approximately 2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, registered a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, measured a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have revealed low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggest the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich.

Analysis of Seismotektonic Patterns in Sumatra Region Based on the Focal Mechanism of Earthquake Period 1976-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Indah, F. P.; Syafriani, S.; Andiyansyah, Z. S.

2018-04-01

Sumatra is in an active subduction zone between the indo-australian plate and the eurasian plate and is located at a fault along the sumatra fault so that sumatra is vulnerable to earthquakes. One of the ways to find out the cause of earthquake can be done by identifying the type of earthquake-causing faults based on earthquake of focal mechanism. The data used to identify the type of fault cause of earthquake is the earth tensor moment data which is sourced from global cmt period 1976-2016. The data used in this research using magnitude m ≥ 6 sr. This research uses gmt software (generic mapping tolls) to describe the form of fault. From the research result, it is found that the characteristics of fault field that formed in every region in sumatera island based on data processing and data of earthquake history of 1976-2016 period that the type of fault in sumatera fault is strike slip, fault type in mentawai fault is reverse fault (rising faults) and dip-slip, while the fault type in the subduction zone is dip-slip.

THE POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION ALONG THE MAKRAN SUBDUCTION ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. CASE STUDY: THE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF NOVEMBER 28, 1945

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George Pararas-Carayannis

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Although large earthquakes along the Makran Subduction Zone are infrequent, the potential for the generation of destructive tsunamis in the Northern Arabian Sea cannot be overlooked. It is quite possible that historical tsunamis in this region have not been properly reported or documented. Such past tsunamis must have affected Southern Pakistan, India, Iran, Oman, the Maldives and other countries bordering the Indian Ocean.The best known of the historical tsunamis in the region is the one generated by the great earthquake of November 28, 1945 off Pakistan's Makran Coast (Balochistan in the Northern Arabian Sea. The destructive tsunami killed more than 4,000 people in Southern Pakistan but also caused great loss of life and devastation along the coasts of Western India, Iran, Oman and possibly elsewhere.The seismotectonics of the Makran subduction zone, historical earthquakes in the region, the recent earthquake of October 8, 2005 in Northern Pakistan, and the great tsunamigenic earthquakes of December 26, 2004 and March 28, 2005, are indicative of the active tectonic collision process that is taking place along the entire southern and southeastern boundary of the Eurasian plate as it collides with the Indian plate and adjacent microplates. Tectonic stress transference to other, stress loaded tectonic regions could trigger tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Northern Arabian Sea in the future.The northward movement and subduction of the Oman oceanic lithosphere beneath the Iranian micro-plate at a very shallow angle and at the high rate is responsible for active orogenesis and uplift that has created a belt of highly folded and densely faulted coastal mountain ridges along the coastal region of Makran, in both the Balochistan and Sindh provinces. The same tectonic collision process has created offshore thrust faults. As in the past, large destructive tsunamigenic earthquakes can occur along major faults in the east Makran region, near Karachi, as

Assessment of impact of strong earthquakes to the global economy by example of Thoku event

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Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Sergey, Baranov; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova

2016-04-01

We examine the economic consequences of strong earthquakes by example of M9 Tahoku one that occurred on March 11, 2011 close to the northeast shore of Japanese coast Honshu. This earthquake became the strongest in the whole history of the seismological observations in this part of the planet. The generated tsunami killed more than 15,700 people, damaged 332,395 buildings and 2,126 roads. The total economic loss in Japan was estimated at 309 billion. The catastrophe in Japan also impacted global economy. To estimate its impact, we used regional and global stock indexes, production indexes, stock prices of the main Japanese, European and US companies, import and export dynamics, as well as the data provided by the custom of Japan. We also demonstrated that the catastrophe substantially affected the markets and on the short run in some indicators it even exceeded the effect of the global financial crisis of 2008. The last strong earthquake occurred in Nepal (25.04.2015, M7.8) and Chile (16.09.2015, M8.3), both actualized the research of cost assessments of the overall economic impact of seismic hazard. We concluded that it is necessary to treat strong earthquakes as one very important factor that affects the world economy depending on their location. The research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project 16-06-00056A).

Fukushima, Into the Forbidden Zone - A Trip through Hell and High Water in Post-earthquake Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vollmann, William T.

2012-01-01

Just weeks after earthquake and tsunami struck Japan, the author ventured into the nuclear hot zone of the Fukushima Daiichi plant, outfitted only with rubber gloves, a cloth face-mask, and armed with a capricious dosimeter. He emerged with a haunting report on daily life in a now-ravaged Japan, a country he has known and loved for many years. He stopped to interview people in the cities and towns hit hardest by the earthquake, the tsunami, and the radioactive contamination. The answers he could get are sometimes surprising, in particular regarding the kindness and enduring spirit of the people he encountered and considering what was going on in their lives

ASSESSING URBAN STREETS NETWORK VULNERABILITY AGAINST EARTHQUAKE USING GIS – CASE STUDY: 6^TH ZONE OF TEHRAN

OpenAIRE

A. Rastegar

2017-01-01

Great earthquakes cause huge damages to human life. Street networks vulnerability makes the rescue operation to encounter serious difficulties especially at the first 72 hours after the incident. Today, physical expansion and high density of great cities, due to narrow access roads, large distance from medical care centers and location at areas with high seismic risk, will lead to a perilous and unpredictable situation in case of the earthquake. Zone # 6 of Tehran, with 229,980 population ...

SEISMIC PICTURE OF A FAULT ZONE. WHAT CAN BE GAINED FROM THE ANALYSIS OF FINE PATTERNS OF SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF WEAK EARTHQUAKE CENTERS?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gevorg G. Kocharyan

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Association of earthquake hypocenters with fault zones appears more pronounced in cases with more accurately determined positions of the earthquakes. For complex, branched structures of major fault zones, it is assumed that some of the earthquakes occur at feathering fractures of smaller scale.It is thus possible to develop a «seismological» criterion for definition of a zone of dynamic influence of faults, i.e. the zone containing the majority of earthquakes associated with the fault zone under consideration.In this publication, seismogenic structures of several fault zones located in the San-Andreas fault system are reviewed. Based on the data from a very dense network of digital seismic stations installed in this region and with application of modern data processing methods, differential coordinates of microearthquakes can be determined with errors of about first dozens of meters.It is thus possible to precisely detect boundaries of the areas wherein active deformation processes occur and to reveal spatial patterns of seismic event localization.In our analyses, data from the most comprehensive seismic catalog were used. The catalogue includes information on events which occurred and were registered in North California in the period between January 1984 and May 2003. In this publication, the seismic data processing results and regularities revealed during the analyses are compared with the data obtained from studies of fault structures, modeling and numerical simulation results. Results of quantitative research of regularities of localization of seismic sources inside fault zones are presented.It is demonstrated by 3D models that seismic events are localized in the vicinity of an almost plain surface with a nearly constant angle of dip, the majority of events being concentrated at that conventional surface.Detection of typical scopes of seismicity localization may prove critical for solution of problems of technogenic impact on fault zones

Earthquake Energy Distribution along the Earth Surface and Radius

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varga, P.; Krumm, F.; Riguzzi, F.; Doglioni, C.; Suele, B.; Wang, K.; Panza, G.F.

2010-07-01

The global earthquake catalog of seismic events with M W ≥ 7.0, for the time interval from 1950 to 2007, shows that the depth distribution of earthquake energy release is not uniform. The 90% of the total earthquake energy budget is dissipated in the first ∼30km, whereas most of the residual budget is radiated at the lower boundary of the transition zone (410 km - 660 km), above the upper-lower mantle boundary. The upper border of the transition zone at around 410 km of depth is not marked by significant seismic energy release. This points for a non-dominant role of the slabs in the energy budged of plate tectonics. Earthquake number and energy release, although not well correlated, when analysed with respect to the latitude, show a decrease toward the polar areas. Moreover, the radiated energy has the highest peak close to (±5 o ) the so-called tectonic equator defined by Crespi et al. (2007), which is inclined about 30 o with respect to the geographic equator. At the same time the presence of a clear axial co- ordination of the radiated seismic energy is demonstrated with maxima at latitudes close to critical (±45 o ). This speaks about the presence of external forces that influence seismicity and it is consistent with the fact that Gutenberg-Richter law is linear, for events with M>5, only when the whole Earth's seismicity is considered. These data are consistent with an astronomical control on plate tectonics, i.e., the despinning (slowing of the Earth's angular rotation) of the Earth's rotation caused primarily by the tidal friction due to the Moon. The mutual position of the shallow and ∼660 km deep earthquake energy sources along subduction zones allows us to conclude that they are connected with the same slab along the W-directed subduction zones, but they may rather be disconnected along the opposed E-NE-directed slabs, being the deep seismicity controlled by other mechanisms. (author)

Fleeing to Fault Zones: Incorporating Syrian Refugees into Earthquake Risk Analysis along the East Anatolian and Dead Sea Rift Fault Zones

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Wilson, B.; Paradise, T. R.

2016-12-01

The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian Fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into cities, towns, and villages—placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong shaking. Yet, displaced populations are not traditionally captured in data sources used in earthquake risk analysis or loss estimations. Accordingly, we present a district-level analysis assessing the spatial overlap of earthquake hazards and refugee locations in southeastern Turkey to determine how migration patterns are altering seismic risk in the region. Using migration estimates from the U.S. Humanitarian Information Unit, we create three district-level population scenarios that combine official population statistics, refugee camp populations, and low, median, and high bounds for integrated refugee populations. We perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis alongside these population scenarios to map spatial variations in seismic risk between 2011 and late 2015. Our results show a significant relative southward increase of seismic risk for this period due to refugee migration. Additionally, we calculate earthquake fatalities for simulated earthquakes using a semi-empirical loss estimation technique to determine degree of under-estimation resulting from forgoing migration data in loss modeling. We find that including refugee populations increased casualties by 11-12% using median population estimates, and upwards of 20% using high population estimates. These results communicate the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context which unites physical, political, cultural, and socio-economic landscapes. Keywords: Earthquakes, Hazards, Loss-Estimation, Syrian Crisis, Migration

The Key Role of Eyewitnesses in Rapid Impact Assessment of Global Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Etivant, C.; Frobert, L.; Godey, S.

2014-12-01

Uncertainties in rapid impact assessments of global earthquakes are intrinsically large because they rely on 3 main elements (ground motion prediction models, building stock inventory and related vulnerability) which values and/or spatial variations are poorly constrained. Furthermore, variations of hypocentral location and magnitude within their respective uncertainty domain can lead to significantly different shaking level for centers of population and change the scope of the disaster. We present the strategy and methods implemented at the Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) to rapidly collect in-situ observations on earthquake effects from eyewitnesses for reducing uncertainties of rapid earthquake impact assessment. It comprises crowdsourced information (online questionnaires, pics) as well as information derived from real time analysis of web traffic (flashourcing technique), and more recently deployment of QCN (Quake Catcher Network) low cost sensors. We underline the importance of merging results of different methods to improve performances and reliability of collected data.We try to better understand and respond to public demands and expectations after earthquakes through improved information services and diversification of information tools (social networks, smartphone app., browsers adds-on…), which, in turn, drive more eyewitnesses to our services and improve data collection. We will notably present our LastQuake Twitter feed (Quakebot) and smartphone applications (IOs and android) which only report earthquakes that matter for the public and authorities, i.e. felt and damaging earthquakes identified thanks to citizen generated information.

Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com [Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı (Turkey)

2016-04-18

In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

The DSeis Project: Drilling into Seismogenic zones of M2.0 to M5.5 earthquakes in South African gold mines

Science.gov (United States)

Yabe, Y.; Ogasawara, H.; Ito, T.; van Aswegen, G.; Durrheim, R. J.; Cichowicz, A.; Onstott, T. C.; Kieft, T. L.; Boettcher, M. S.; Wiemer, S.; Ziegler, M.; Shapiro, S. A.; Gupta, H. K.; Dight, P.

2017-12-01

The DSeis project under ICDP consists of drilling in three mines; MK, TT and C4 mines. Common scientific targets among them are the stress state and the microstructure in the seismogenic zone. In addition to these targets, specific targets in individual mines are detailed below. A M5.5 earthquake occurred beneath the MK mine on 5 August 2014. The hypocenter of this event was 5km depth from the surface. In contrast to the normal faulting of induced earthquakes in mining horizons (planned to evaluate how much is a ratio of microseismicity associated with creation of new fractures. In the C4 mine, there was the site of a previous project, in which the microseismicity monitoring and the stress measurement by the CCBO technique were carried out. A M2.8 earthquake occurred 1 year after the CCBO and its hypocenter was only 100m away from the CCBO site. Due to little mining activity in the source region, the stress state just after the M2.8 event should be preserved. We will measure the stress again. Damage zones that evolved quasi-statically were seen by the microseismicity monitoring. Drilling into these zones would provide a clue to see a difference between faults evolved dynamically and quasi-statically.

Facilitating open global data use in earthquake source modelling to improve geodetic and seismological approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Steinberg, Andreas; Isken, Marius; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes

2017-04-01

In the last few years impressive achievements have been made in improving inferences about earthquake sources by using InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) data. Several factors aided these developments. The open data basis of earthquake observations has expanded vastly with the two powerful Sentinel-1 SAR sensors up in space. Increasing computer power allows processing of large data sets for more detailed source models. Moreover, data inversion approaches for earthquake source inferences are becoming more advanced. By now data error propagation is widely implemented and the estimation of model uncertainties is a regular feature of reported optimum earthquake source models. Also, more regularly InSAR-derived surface displacements and seismological waveforms are combined, which requires finite rupture models instead of point-source approximations and layered medium models instead of homogeneous half-spaces. In other words the disciplinary differences in geodetic and seismological earthquake source modelling shrink towards common source-medium descriptions and a source near-field/far-field data point of view. We explore and facilitate the combination of InSAR-derived near-field static surface displacement maps and dynamic far-field seismological waveform data for global earthquake source inferences. We join in the community efforts with the particular goal to improve crustal earthquake source inferences in generally not well instrumented areas, where often only the global backbone observations of earthquakes are available provided by seismological broadband sensor networks and, since recently, by Sentinel-1 SAR acquisitions. We present our work on modelling standards for the combination of static and dynamic surface displacements in the source's near-field and far-field, e.g. on data and prediction error estimations as well as model uncertainty estimation. Rectangular dislocations and moment-tensor point sources are exchanged by simple planar finite

Coulomb Stress Change and Seismic Hazard of Rift Zones in Southern Tibet after the 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal Earthquake and Its Mw7.3 Aftershock

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Z.; Zha, X.; Lu, Z.

2015-12-01

In southern Tibet (30~34N, 80~95E), many north-trending rifts, such as Yadong-Gulu and Lunggar rifts, are characterized by internally drained graben or half-graben basins bounded by active normal faults. Some developed rifts have become a portion of important transportation lines in Tibet, China. Since 1976, eighty-seven >Mw5.0 earthquakes have happened in the rift regions, and fifty-five events have normal faulting focal mechanisms according to the GCMT catalog. These rifts and normal faults are associated with both the EW-trending extension of the southern Tibet and the convergence between Indian and Tibet. The 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal great earthquake and its Mw7.3 aftershock occurred at the main Himalayan Thrust zone and caused tremendous damages in Kathmandu region. Those earthquakes will lead to significant viscoelastic deformation and stress changes in the southern Tibet in the future. To evaluate the seismic hazard in the active rift regions in southern Tibet, we modeled the slip distribution of the 2015 Nepal great earthquakes using the InSAR displacement field from the ALOS-2 satellite SAR data, and calculated the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) on these active normal faults in the rift zones. Because the estimated CFS depends on the geometrical parameters of receiver faults, it is necessary to get the accurate fault parameters in the rift zones. Some historical earthquakes have been studied using the field data, teleseismic data and InSAR observations, but results are in not agreement with each other. In this study, we revaluated the geometrical parameters of seismogenic faults occurred in the rift zones using some high-quality coseismic InSAR observations and teleseismic body-wave data. Finally, we will evaluate the seismic hazard in the rift zones according to the value of the estimated CFS and aftershock distribution.

Modeling earthquake sequences along the Manila subduction zone: Effects of three-dimensional fault geometry

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Hongyu; Liu, Yajing; Yang, Hongfeng; Ning, Jieyuan

2018-05-01

To assess the potential of catastrophic megathrust earthquakes (MW > 8) along the Manila Trench, the eastern boundary of the South China Sea, we incorporate a 3D non-planar fault geometry in the framework of rate-state friction to simulate earthquake rupture sequences along the fault segment between 15°N-19°N of northern Luzon. Our simulation results demonstrate that the first-order fault geometry heterogeneity, the transitional-segment (possibly related to the subducting Scarborough seamount chain) connecting the steeper south segment and the flatter north segment, controls earthquake rupture behaviors. The strong along-strike curvature at the transitional-segment typically leads to partial ruptures of MW 8.3 and MW 7.8 along the southern and northern segments respectively. The entire fault occasionally ruptures in MW 8.8 events when the cumulative stress in the transitional-segment is sufficiently high to overcome the geometrical inhibition. Fault shear stress evolution, represented by the S-ratio, is clearly modulated by the width of seismogenic zone (W). At a constant plate convergence rate, a larger W indicates on average lower interseismic stress loading rate and longer rupture recurrence period, and could slow down or sometimes stop ruptures that initiated from a narrower portion. Moreover, the modeled interseismic slip rate before whole-fault rupture events is comparable with the coupling state that was inferred from the interplate seismicity distribution, suggesting the Manila trench could potentially rupture in a M8+ earthquake.

The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

Science.gov (United States)

Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.

2011-08-01

The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. E. Daniell

2011-08-01

Full Text Available The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes.

Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon.

Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected, and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured.

Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing, 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product, exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index, and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons.

This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global

Evidence for Ancient Mesoamerican Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Kovach, R. L.; Garcia, B.

2001-12-01

Evidence for past earthquake damage at Mesoamerican ruins is often overlooked because of the invasive effects of tropical vegetation and is usually not considered as a casual factor when restoration and reconstruction of many archaeological sites are undertaken. Yet the proximity of many ruins to zones of seismic activity would argue otherwise. Clues as to the types of damage which should be soughtwere offered in September 1999 when the M = 7.5 Oaxaca earthquake struck the ruins of Monte Alban, Mexico, where archaeological renovations were underway. More than 20 structures were damaged, 5 of them seriously. Damage features noted were walls out of plumb, fractures in walls, floors, basal platforms and tableros, toppling of columns, and deformation, settling and tumbling of walls. A Modified Mercalli Intensity of VII (ground accelerations 18-34 %b) occurred at the site. Within the diffuse landward extension of the Caribbean plate boundary zone M = 7+ earthquakes occur with repeat times of hundreds of years arguing that many Maya sites were subjected to earthquakes. Damage to re-erected and reinforced stelae, walls, and buildings were witnessed at Quirigua, Guatemala, during an expedition underway when then 1976 M = 7.5 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault struck. Excavations also revealed evidence (domestic pttery vessels and skeleton of a child crushed under fallen walls) of an ancient earthquake occurring about the teim of the demise and abandonment of Quirigua in the late 9th century. Striking evidence for sudden earthquake building collapse at the end of the Mayan Classic Period ~A.D. 889 was found at Benque Viejo (Xunantunich), Belize, located 210 north of Quirigua. It is argued that a M = 7.5 to 7.9 earthquake at the end of the Maya Classic period centered in the vicinity of the Chixoy-Polochic and Motagua fault zones cound have produced the contemporaneous earthquake damage to the above sites. As a consequences this earthquake may have accelerated the

Earthquake Clusters and Spatio-temporal Migration of earthquakes in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau: a Finite Element Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Y.; Luo, G.

2017-12-01

Seismicity in a region is usually characterized by earthquake clusters and earthquake migration along its major fault zones. However, we do not fully understand why and how earthquake clusters and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes occur. The northeastern Tibetan Plateau is a good example for us to investigate these problems. In this study, we construct and use a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes along major fault zones in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We calculate stress evolution and fault interactions, and explore effects of topographic loading and viscosity of middle-lower crust and upper mantle on model results. Model results show that earthquakes and fault interactions increase Coulomb stress on the neighboring faults or segments, accelerating the future earthquakes in this region. Thus, earthquakes occur sequentially in a short time, leading to regional earthquake clusters. Through long-term evolution, stresses on some seismogenic faults, which are far apart, may almost simultaneously reach the critical state of fault failure, probably also leading to regional earthquake clusters and earthquake migration. Based on our model synthetic seismic catalog and paleoseismic data, we analyze probability of earthquake migration between major faults in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We find that following the 1920 M 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake and the 1927 M 8.0 Gulang earthquake, the next big event (M≥7) in northeastern Tibetan Plateau would be most likely to occur on the Haiyuan fault.

Unexpected earthquake hazard revealed by Holocene rupture on the Kenchreai Fault (central Greece): Implications for weak sub-fault shear zones

Science.gov (United States)

Copley, Alex; Grützner, Christoph; Howell, Andy; Jackson, James; Penney, Camilla; Wimpenny, Sam

2018-03-01

High-resolution elevation models, palaeoseismic trenching, and Quaternary dating demonstrate that the Kenchreai Fault in the eastern Gulf of Corinth (Greece) has ruptured in the Holocene. Along with the adjacent Pisia and Heraion Faults (which ruptured in 1981), our results indicate the presence of closely-spaced and parallel normal faults that are simultaneously active, but at different rates. Such a configuration allows us to address one of the major questions in understanding the earthquake cycle, specifically what controls the distribution of interseismic strain accumulation? Our results imply that the interseismic loading and subsequent earthquakes on these faults are governed by weak shear zones in the underlying ductile crust. In addition, the identification of significant earthquake slip on a fault that does not dominate the late Quaternary geomorphology or vertical coastal motions in the region provides an important lesson in earthquake hazard assessment.

Bridge seismic retrofit measures considering subduction zone earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-07-01

Over the years, earthquakes have exposed the vulnerability of reinforced concrete structures under : seismic loads. The recent occurrence of highly devastating earthquakes near instrumented regions, e.g. 2010 Maule, Chile : and 2011 Tohoku, Japan, ha...

The 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake - a human-caused event

Science.gov (United States)

Klose, C. D.

2013-12-01

A catalog of global human-caused earthquakes shows statistical evidence that the triggering of earthquakes by large-scale geoengineering activities depends on geological and tectonic constrains (in Klose 2013). Such geoengineering activities also include the filling of water reservoirs. This presentation illuminates mechanical and statistical aspects of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in light of the hypothesis of being NOT human-caused. However, available data suggest that the Wenchuan earthquake was triggered by the filling of the Zipungpu water reservoir 30 months prior to the mainshock. The reservoir spatially extended parallel and near to the main Beichuan fault zone in a highly stressed reverse fault regime. It is mechanically evident that reverse faults tend to be very trigger-sensitive due to mass shifts (static loads) that occur on the surface of the Earth's crust. These circumstances made a triggering of a seismic event of this magnitude at this location possible (in Klose 2008, 2012). The data show that the Wenchuan earthquake is not an outlier. From a statistical view point, the earthquake falls into the upper range of the family of reverse fault earthquakes that were caused by humans worldwide.

Internal tectonic structure of the Central American Wadati-Benioff zone based on analysis of aftershock sequences

Science.gov (United States)

Špičák, Aleš; Hanuš, Václav; Vaněk, Jiří; Běhounková, Marie

2007-09-01

Relocated Engdahl et al. (1998) global seismological data for 10 aftershock sequences were used to analyze the internal tectonic structure of the Central American subduction zone; the main shocks of several of these were the most destructive and often referenced earthquakes in the region (e.g., the 1970 Chiapas, 1983 Osa, 1992 Nicaragua, 1999 Quepos, 2001 El Salvador earthquakes). The spatial analysis of aftershock foci distribution was performed in a rotated Cartesian coordinate system (x, y, z) related to the Wadati-Benioff zone, and not in a standard coordinate system ($\\varphi$, λ, h are latitude, longitude, focal depth, respectively). Available fault plane solutions were also transformed into the plane approximating the Wadati-Benioff zone. The spatial distribution of earthquakes in each aftershock sequence was modeled as either a plane fit using a least squares approximation or a volume fit with a minimum thickness rectangular box. The analysis points to a quasi-planar distribution of earthquake foci in all aftershock sequences, manifesting the appurtenance of aftershocks to fracture zones. Geometrical parameters of fracture zones (strike, dip, and dimensions) hosting individual sequences were calculated and compared with the seafloor morphology of the Cocos Plate. The smooth character of the seafloor correlates with the aftershock fracture zones oriented parallel to the trench and commonly subparallel to the subducting slab, whereas subduction of the Cocos Ridge and seamounts around the Quepos Plateau coincides with steeply dipping fracture zones. Transformed focal mechanisms are almost exclusively (>90%) of normal character.

Foreshock patterns preceding large earthquakes in the subduction zone of Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Minadakis, George; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.

2016-04-01

Some of the largest earthquakes in the globe occur in the subduction zone of Chile. Therefore, it is of particular interest to investigate foreshock patterns preceding such earthquakes. Foreshocks in Chile were recognized as early as 1960. In fact, the giant (Mw9.5) earthquake of 22 May 1960, which was the largest ever instrumentally recorded, was preceded by 45 foreshocks in a time period of 33h before the mainshock, while 250 aftershocks were recorded in a 33h time period after the mainshock. Four foreshocks were bigger than magnitude 7.0, including a magnitude 7.9 on May 21 that caused severe damage in the Concepcion area. More recently, Brodsky and Lay (2014) and Bedford et al. (2015) reported on foreshock activity before the 1 April 2014 large earthquake (Mw8.2). However, 3-D foreshock patterns in space, time and size were not studied in depth so far. Since such studies require for good seismic catalogues to be available, we have investigated 3-D foreshock patterns only before the recent, very large mainshocks occurring on 27 February 2010 (Mw 8.8), 1 April 2014 (Mw8.2) and 16 September 2015 (Mw8.4). Although our analysis does not depend on a priori definition of short-term foreshocks, our interest focuses in the short-term time frame, that is in the last 5-6 months before the mainshock. The analysis of the 2014 event showed an excellent foreshock sequence consisting by an early-weak foreshock stage lasting for about 1.8 months and by a main-strong precursory foreshock stage that was evolved in the last 18 days before the mainshock. During the strong foreshock period the seismicity concentrated around the mainshock epicenter in a critical area of about 65 km mainly along the trench domain to the south of the mainshock epicenter. At the same time, the activity rate increased dramatically, the b-value dropped and the mean magnitude increased significantly, while the level of seismic energy released also increased. In view of these highly significant seismicity

Stochastic strong ground motion simulations for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the south Aegean subduction zone

Science.gov (United States)

Kkallas, Harris; Papazachos, Konstantinos; Boore, David; Margaris, Vasilis

2015-04-01

We have employed the stochastic finite-fault modelling approach of Motazedian and Atkinson (2005), as described by Boore (2009), for the simulation of Fourier spectra of the Intermediate-depth earthquakes of the south Aegean subduction zone. The stochastic finite-fault method is a practical tool for simulating ground motions of future earthquakes which requires region-specific source, path and site characterizations as input model parameters. For this reason we have used data from both acceleration-sensor and broadband velocity-sensor instruments from intermediate-depth earthquakes with magnitude of M 4.5-6.7 that occurred in the south Aegean subduction zone. Source mechanisms for intermediate-depth events of north Aegean subduction zone are either collected from published information or are constrained using the main faulting types from Kkallas et al. (2013). The attenuation parameters for simulations were adopted from Skarladoudis et al. (2013) and are based on regression analysis of a response spectra database. The site amplification functions for each soil class were adopted from Klimis et al., (1999), while the kappa values were constrained from the analysis of the EGELADOS network data from Ventouzi et al., (2013). The investigation of stress-drop values was based on simulations performed with the EXSIM code for several ranges of stress drop values and by comparing the results with the available Fourier spectra of intermediate-depth earthquakes. Significant differences regarding the strong-motion duration, which is determined from Husid plots (Husid, 1969), have been identified between the for-arc and along-arc stations due to the effect of the low-velocity/low-Q mantle wedge on the seismic wave propagation. In order to estimate appropriate values for the duration of P-waves, we have automatically picked P-S durations on the available seismograms. For the S-wave durations we have used the part of the seismograms starting from the S-arrivals and ending at the

Structural variation along the southwestern Nankai seismogenic zone related to various earthquake phenomena

Science.gov (United States)

Nakanishi, A.; Shimomura, N.; Kodaira, S.; Obana, K.; Takahashi, T.; Yamamoto, Y.; Sato, T.; Kashiwase, K.; Fujimori, H.; Kaneda, Y.; Mochizuki, K.; Kato, A.; Iidaka, T.; Kurashimo, E.; Shinohara, M.; Takeda, T.; Shiomi, K.

2011-12-01

In the Nankai Trough subduction seismogenic zone, the Nankai and Tonankai earthquakes had often occurred simultaneously, and caused a great event. In order to reduce a great deal of damage to coastal area from both strong ground motion and tsunami generation, it is necessary to understand rupture synchronization and segmentation of the Nankai megathrust earthquake. For a precise estimate of the rupture area of the Nankai megathrust event, it is important to know the geometry of the subducting Philippine Sea plate and deep subduction structure along the Nankai Trough. To obtain the deep subduction structure of the coseismic rupture area of the Nankai earthquake in 1946 off Shikoku area, the large-scale high-resolution wide-angle seismic study was conducted in 2009 and 2010. In this study, 201 and 200 ocean bottom seismographs were deployed off the Shikoku Island and the Kii channel respectively. A tuned airgun system (7800 cu. in.) shot every 200m along 13 profiles. Airgun shots were also recorded along an onshore seismic profile (prepared by ERI, univ. of Tokyo and NIED) prolonged from the offshore profile off the Kii Peninsula. Long-term observation was conducted for ~9 months by 21 OBSs off the Shikoku area and 20 OBSs off the Kii channel.This research is part of 'Research concerning Interaction Between the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes' funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. Structural images of the overriding plate indicate the old accreted sediments (the Cretaceous-Tertiary accretionary prism) with the velocity greater than 6km/s extend seaward from off the Shikoku to the Hyuga-nada. Moreover, the young accreted sediments become relatively thinner eastward from off the cape Ashizuri to Muroto. These structural variations might be related to the different rupture pattern of the Nankai event. Structural image of the deep low frequency earthquakes and tremors is shown by using the airgun shots recorded at onshore

Rupture behaviors of the 2010 Jiashian and 2016 Meinong Earthquakes: Implication for interaction of two asperities on the Chishan Transfer Fault Zone in SW Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Jian, P. R.; Hung, S. H.; Chen, Y. L.; Meng, L.; Tseng, T. L.

2017-12-01

After about 45 years of seismic quiescence, southwest Taiwan was imperiled by two strong earthquakes, the 2010 Mw 6.2 Jiashian and deadly 2016 Mw 6.4 Meinong earthquakes in the last decade. The focal mechanisms and their aftershock distributions imply that both events occurred on NW-SE striking, shallow-dipping fault planes but at different depths of 21 and 16 km, respectively. Here we present the MUSIC back projection images using high-frequency P- and sP-waves recorded in the European and Australian seismic networks, the directivity analysis using global teleseismic P waves and relocated aftershocks to characterize the rupture behaviors of the two mainshocks and explore the potential connection between them. The results for the Meinong event indicate a unilateral, subhorizontal rupture propagating NW-ward 17 km and lasting for 6-7 s [Jian et al., 2017]. For the Jiashian event, the rupture initiated at a greater depth of 21 km and then propagated both NW-ward and up-dip ( 16o) on the fault plane, with a shorter rupture length of 10 km and duration of 4-5 s. The up-dip propagation is corroborated by the 3-D directivity analysis that leads to the widths of P-wave pulses increasing linearly with the directivity parameter. Moreover, relocation of aftershocks reveals that the Jiashian sequence is confined in a NW-SE elongated zone extending 15 km and 5 km shallower than the hypocenter. The Meinong aftershock sequence shows three clusters: one surrounding the mainshock hypocenter, another one distributed northwestern and deeper (>20 km) off the rupture plane beneath Tainan, and the other distant shallow-focus one (<10 km) beneath the southern Central Mountain Range. As evidenced by similar focal mechanism, rupture behaviors, as well as the spatial configuration of the mainshock rupture zones and aftershock distributions, we attribute the Jiashian and Meinong earthquakes to two asperities on a buried oblique fault that has been reactivated recently, the NW-SE striking

Two decades of spatiotemporal variations in subduction zone coupling offshore Japan

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Loveless, John P.; Meade, Brendan J.

2016-02-01

Spatial patterns of interplate coupling on global subduction zones can be used to guide seismic hazard assessment, but estimates of coupling are often constrained using a limited temporal range of geodetic data. Here we analyze ∼19 years of geodetic observations from the GEONET network to assess time-dependent variations in the spatial distribution of coupling on the subduction zones offshore Japan. We divide the position time series into five, ∼3.75-year epochs each decomposed into best-fit velocity, annual periodic signals, coseismic offsets, and postseismic effects following seven major earthquakes. Nominally interseismic velocities are interpreted in terms of a combination of tectonic block motions and earthquake cycle activity. The duration of the inferred postseismic activity covaries with the linear velocity. To address this trade-off, we assume that the nominally interseismic velocity at each station varies minimally from epoch to epoch. This approach is distinct from prior time-series analysis across the earthquake cycle in that position data are not detrended using preseismic velocity, which inherently assumes that interseismic processes are spatially stable through time, but rather the best-fit velocity at each station may vary between epochs. These velocities reveal significant consistency since 1996 in the spatial distribution of coupling on the Nankai subduction zone, with variation limited primarily to the Tokai and Bungo Channel regions, where long-term slow slip events have occurred, and persistently coupled regions coincident with areas that slipped during historic great earthquakes. On the Sagami subduction zone south of Tokyo, we also estimate relatively stable coupling through time. On the Japan-Kuril Trench, we image significant coupling variations owing to effects of the 1994 MW = 7.7 Sanriku-oki, 2003 MW = 8.2 Tokachi-oki, and 2011 MW = 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquakes. In particular, strong coupling becomes more spatially extensive following

The rupture process of the Manjil, Iran earthquake of 20 june 1990 and implications for intraplate strike-slip earthquakes

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Choy, G.L.; Zednik, J.

1997-01-01

In terms of seismically radiated energy or moment release, the earthquake of 20 January 1990 in the Manjil Basin-Alborz Mountain region of Iran is the second largest strike-slip earthquake to have occurred in an intracontinental setting in the past decade. It caused enormous loss of life and the virtual destruction of several cities. Despite a very large meizoseismal area, the identification of the causative faults has been hampered by the lack of reliable earthquake locations and conflicting field reports of surface displacement. Using broadband data from global networks of digitally recording seismographs, we analyse broadband seismic waveforms to derive characteristics of the rupture process. Complexities in waveforms generated by the earthquake indicate that the main shock consisted of a tiny precursory subevent followed in the next 20 seconds by a series of four major subevents with depths ranging from 10 to 15 km. The focal mechanisms of the major subevents, which are predominantly strike-slip, have a common nodal plane striking about 285??-295??. Based on the coincidence of this strike with the dominant tectonic fabric of the region we presume that the EW striking planes are the fault planes. The first major subevent nucleated slightly south of the initial precursor. The second subevent occurred northwest of the initial precursor. The last two subevents moved progressively southeastward of the first subevent in a direction collinear with the predominant strike of the fault planes. The offsets in the relative locations and the temporal delays of the rupture subevents indicate heterogeneous distribution of fracture strength and the involvement of multiple faults. The spatial distribution of teleseismic aftershocks, which at first appears uncorrelated with meizoseismal contours, can be decomposed into stages. The initial activity, being within and on the periphery of the rupture zone, correlates in shape and length with meizoseismal lines. In the second stage

The Challenge of Centennial Earthquakes to Improve Modern Earthquake Engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saragoni, G. Rodolfo

2008-01-01

The recent commemoration of the centennial of the San Francisco and Valparaiso 1906 earthquakes has given the opportunity to reanalyze their damages from modern earthquake engineering perspective. These two earthquakes plus Messina Reggio Calabria 1908 had a strong impact in the birth and developing of earthquake engineering. The study of the seismic performance of some up today existing buildings, that survive centennial earthquakes, represent a challenge to better understand the limitations of our in use earthquake design methods. Only Valparaiso 1906 earthquake, of the three considered centennial earthquakes, has been repeated again as the Central Chile, 1985, Ms = 7.8 earthquake. In this paper a comparative study of the damage produced by 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes is done in the neighborhood of Valparaiso harbor. In this study the only three centennial buildings of 3 stories that survived both earthquakes almost undamaged were identified. Since for 1985 earthquake accelerogram at El Almendral soil conditions as well as in rock were recoded, the vulnerability analysis of these building is done considering instrumental measurements of the demand. The study concludes that good performance of these buildings in the epicentral zone of large earthquakes can not be well explained by modern earthquake engineering methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use in the future of more suitable instrumental parameters, such as the destructiveness potential factor, to describe earthquake demand

Permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity controlled by earthquakes

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Brodsky, E. E.; Fulton, P. M.; Xue, L.

2016-12-01

Earthquakes can increase permeability in fractured rocks. In the farfield, such permeability increases are attributed to seismic waves and can last for months after the initial earthquake. Laboratory studies suggest that unclogging of fractures by the transient flow driven by seismic waves is a viable mechanism. These dynamic permeability increases may contribute to permeability enhancement in the seismic clouds accompanying hydraulic fracking. Permeability enhancement by seismic waves could potentially be engineered and the experiments suggest the process will be most effective at a preferred frequency. We have recently observed similar processes inside active fault zones after major earthquakes. A borehole observatory in the fault that generated the M9.0 2011 Tohoku earthquake reveals a sequence of temperature pulses during the secondary aftershock sequence of an M7.3 aftershock. The pulses are attributed to fluid advection by a flow through a zone of transiently increased permeability. Directly after the M7.3 earthquake, the newly damaged fault zone is highly susceptible to further permeability enhancement, but ultimately heals within a month and becomes no longer as sensitive. The observation suggests that the newly damaged fault zone is more prone to fluid pulsing than would be expected based on the long-term permeability structure. Even longer term healing is seen inside the fault zone of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The competition between damage and healing (or clogging and unclogging) results in dynamically controlled permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity. Recent measurements of in situ fault zone architecture at the 1-10 meter scale suggest that active fault zones often have hydraulic diffusivities near 10-2 m2/s. This uniformity is true even within the damage zone of the San Andreas fault where permeability and storage increases balance each other to achieve this value of diffusivity over a 400 m wide region. We speculate that fault zones

Chilean megathrust earthquake recurrence linked to frictional contrast at depth

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Moreno, M.; Li, S.; Melnick, D.; Bedford, J. R.; Baez, J. C.; Motagh, M.; Metzger, S.; Vajedian, S.; Sippl, C.; Gutknecht, B. D.; Contreras-Reyes, E.; Deng, Z.; Tassara, A.; Oncken, O.

2018-04-01

Fundamental processes of the seismic cycle in subduction zones, including those controlling the recurrence and size of great earthquakes, are still poorly understood. Here, by studying the 2016 earthquake in southern Chile—the first large event within the rupture zone of the 1960 earthquake (moment magnitude (Mw) = 9.5)—we show that the frictional zonation of the plate interface fault at depth mechanically controls the timing of more frequent, moderate-size deep events (Mw shallow earthquakes (Mw > 8.5). We model the evolution of stress build-up for a seismogenic zone with heterogeneous friction to examine the link between the 2016 and 1960 earthquakes. Our results suggest that the deeper segments of the seismogenic megathrust are weaker and interseismically loaded by a more strongly coupled, shallower asperity. Deeper segments fail earlier ( 60 yr recurrence), producing moderate-size events that precede the failure of the shallower region, which fails in a great earthquake (recurrence >110 yr). We interpret the contrasting frictional strength and lag time between deeper and shallower earthquakes to be controlled by variations in pore fluid pressure. Our integrated analysis strengthens understanding of the mechanics and timing of great megathrust earthquakes, and therefore could aid in the seismic hazard assessment of other subduction zones.

Great earthquake potential in Oregon and Washington: An overview of recent coastal geologic studies and possible segmentation of the central Cascadia subduction zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, A.R.; Personius, S.F.

1990-01-01

Fundamental questions in earthquake hazards research in the Pacific Northwest concern the magnitude and recurrence of great earthquakes in the Cascadia subduction zone in Oregon and Washington. Geologic work of the last few years has produced convincing evidence for coseismic subsidence along the Washington and Oregon coasts. Regional subsidence recorded by estuarine deposits suggests that plate-interface earthquakes of at least M w 8 (>100-km-long ruptures) occurred during the late Holocene in northern Oregon and southern Washington. Differences in the types of coastal marsh sequences between northern and south-central Oregon, however, suggest that regional coastal subsidence does not extend south of about 45.5 degrees N along the Oregon coast. North of this latitude, the coast may intersect the seaward edge of a zone of coseismic subsidence that continues southward onshore. Alternatively, the Cascadia subduction zone is segmented near 44-45 degrees N; a segment boundary at this location would suggest that plate-interface events near M w 8 along the central CSZ would be more frequent than larger (M w 9) events. South of this boundary in the Coos Bay region, the tectonic framework developed through mapping and dating of marine and fluvial terraces indicates that many episodes of abrupt marsh burial in south-central Oregon are best interpreted as the product of deformation on local structures. Some of the local deformation could be associated with moderate earthquakes (M s <6). At most sites in south-central Oregon, however, it is still unclear whether coseismic events were responses to local faulting or folding, to regional deformation during great plate-interface earthquakes, or to both. This study has potential implications for risk assessments for light water reactors in North America

Iranian earthquakes, a uniform catalog with moment magnitudes

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Karimiparidari, Sepideh; Zaré, Mehdi; Memarian, Hossein; Kijko, Andrzej

2013-07-01

A uniform earthquake catalog is an essential tool in any seismic hazard analysis. In this study, an earthquake catalog of Iran and adjacent areas was compiled, using international and national databanks. The following priorities were applied in selecting magnitude and earthquake location: (a) local catalogs were given higher priority for establishing the location of an earthquake and (b) global catalogs were preferred for determining earthquake magnitudes. Earthquakes that have occurred within the bounds between 23-42° N and 42-65° E, with a magnitude range of M W 3.5-7.9, from the third millennium BC until April 2010 were included. In an effort to avoid the "boundary effect," since the newly compiled catalog will be mainly used for seismic hazard assessment, the study area includes the areas adjacent to Iran. The standardization of the catalog in terms of magnitude was achieved by the conversion of all types of magnitude into moment magnitude, M W, by using the orthogonal regression technique. In the newly compiled catalog, all aftershocks were detected, based on the procedure described by Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64:1363-1367, 1974). The seismicity parameters were calculated for the six main tectonic seismic zones of Iran, i.e., the Zagros Mountain Range, the Alborz Mountain Range, Central Iran, Kope Dagh, Azerbaijan, and Makran.

Distribution of incremental static stress caused by earthquakes

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Y. Y. Kagan

1994-01-01

Full Text Available Theoretical calculations, simulations and measurements of rotation of earthquake focal mechanisms suggest that the stress in earthquake focal zones follows the Cauchy distribution which is one of the stable probability distributions (with the value of the exponent α equal to 1. We review the properties of the stable distributions and show that the Cauchy distribution is expected to approximate the stress caused by earthquakes occurring over geologically long intervals of a fault zone development. However, the stress caused by recent earthquakes recorded in instrumental catalogues, should follow symmetric stable distributions with the value of α significantly less than one. This is explained by a fractal distribution of earthquake hypocentres: the dimension of a hypocentre set, ��, is close to zero for short-term earthquake catalogues and asymptotically approaches 2¼ for long-time intervals. We use the Harvard catalogue of seismic moment tensor solutions to investigate the distribution of incremental static stress caused by earthquakes. The stress measured in the focal zone of each event is approximated by stable distributions. In agreement with theoretical considerations, the exponent value of the distribution approaches zero as the time span of an earthquake catalogue (ΔT decreases. For large stress values α increases. We surmise that it is caused by the δ increase for small inter-earthquake distances due to location errors.

Margin-Wide Earthquake Subspace Scanning Along the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using the Cascadia Initiative Amphibious Dataset

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Morton, E.; Bilek, S. L.; Rowe, C. A.

2017-12-01

Understanding the spatial extent and behavior of the interplate contact in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) may prove pivotal to preparation for future great earthquakes, such as the M9 event of 1700. Current and historic seismic catalogs are limited in their integrity by their short duration, given the recurrence rate of great earthquakes, and by their rather high magnitude of completeness for the interplate seismic zone, due to its offshore distance from these land-based networks. This issue is addressed via the 2011-2015 Cascadia Initiative (CI) amphibious seismic array deployment, which combined coastal land seismometers with more than 60 ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS) situated directly above the presumed plate interface. We search the CI dataset for small, previously undetected interplate earthquakes to identify seismic patches on the megathrust. Using the automated subspace detection method, we search for previously undetected events. Our subspace comprises eigenvectors derived from CI OBS and on-land waveforms extracted for existing catalog events that appear to have occurred on the plate interface. Previous work focused on analysis of two repeating event clusters off the coast of Oregon spanning all 4 years of deployment. Here we expand earlier results to include detection and location analysis to the entire CSZ margin during the first year of CI deployment, with more than 200 new events detected for the central portion of the margin. Template events used for subspace scanning primarily occurred beneath the land surface along the coast, at the downdip edge of modeled high slip patches for the 1700 event, with most concentrated at the northwestern edge of the Olympic Peninsula.

Aftershocks illuminate the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake causative fault zone and nearby active faults

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Horton, J. Wright; Shah, Anjana K.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Snyder, Stephen L.; Carter, Aina M

2015-01-01

Deployment of temporary seismic stations after the 2011 Mineral, Virginia (USA), earthquake produced a well-recorded aftershock sequence. The majority of aftershocks are in a tabular cluster that delineates the previously unknown Quail fault zone. Quail fault zone aftershocks range from ~3 to 8 km in depth and are in a 1-km-thick zone striking ~036° and dipping ~50°SE, consistent with a 028°, 50°SE main-shock nodal plane having mostly reverse slip. This cluster extends ~10 km along strike. The Quail fault zone projects to the surface in gneiss of the Ordovician Chopawamsic Formation just southeast of the Ordovician–Silurian Ellisville Granodiorite pluton tail. The following three clusters of shallow (<3 km) aftershocks illuminate other faults. (1) An elongate cluster of early aftershocks, ~10 km east of the Quail fault zone, extends 8 km from Fredericks Hall, strikes ~035°–039°, and appears to be roughly vertical. The Fredericks Hall fault may be a strand or splay of the older Lakeside fault zone, which to the south spans a width of several kilometers. (2) A cluster of later aftershocks ~3 km northeast of Cuckoo delineates a fault near the eastern contact of the Ordovician Quantico Formation. (3) An elongate cluster of late aftershocks ~1 km northwest of the Quail fault zone aftershock cluster delineates the northwest fault (described herein), which is temporally distinct, dips more steeply, and has a more northeastward strike. Some aftershock-illuminated faults coincide with preexisting units or structures evident from radiometric anomalies, suggesting tectonic inheritance or reactivation.

Tsunamigenic earthquake simulations using experimentally derived friction laws

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Murphy, S.; Di Toro, G.; Romano, F.; Scala, A.; Lorito, S.; Spagnuolo, E.; Aretusini, S.; Festa, G.; Piatanesi, A.; Nielsen, S.

2018-03-01

Seismological, tsunami and geodetic observations have shown that subduction zones are complex systems where the properties of earthquake rupture vary with depth as a result of different pre-stress and frictional conditions. A wealth of earthquakes of different sizes and different source features (e.g. rupture duration) can be generated in subduction zones, including tsunami earthquakes, some of which can produce extreme tsunamigenic events. Here, we offer a geological perspective principally accounting for depth-dependent frictional conditions, while adopting a simplified distribution of on-fault tectonic pre-stress. We combine a lithology-controlled, depth-dependent experimental friction law with 2D elastodynamic rupture simulations for a Tohoku-like subduction zone cross-section. Subduction zone fault rocks are dominantly incohesive and clay-rich near the surface, transitioning to cohesive and more crystalline at depth. By randomly shifting along fault dip the location of the high shear stress regions ("asperities"), moderate to great thrust earthquakes and tsunami earthquakes are produced that are quite consistent with seismological, geodetic, and tsunami observations. As an effect of depth-dependent friction in our model, slip is confined to the high stress asperity at depth; near the surface rupture is impeded by the rock-clay transition constraining slip to the clay-rich layer. However, when the high stress asperity is located in the clay-to-crystalline rock transition, great thrust earthquakes can be generated similar to the Mw 9 Tohoku (2011) earthquake.

Calculation of earthquake rupture histories using a hybrid global search algorithm: Application to the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

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Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.

1996-01-01

A method is presented for the simultaneous calculation of slip amplitudes and rupture times for a finite fault using a hybrid global search algorithm. The method we use combines simulated annealing with the downhill simplex method to produce a more efficient search algorithm then either of the two constituent parts. This formulation has advantages over traditional iterative or linearized approaches to the problem because it is able to escape local minima in its search through model space for the global optimum. We apply this global search method to the calculation of the rupture history for the Landers, California, earthquake. The rupture is modeled using three separate finite-fault planes to represent the three main fault segments that failed during this earthquake. Both the slip amplitude and the time of slip are calculated for a grid work of subfaults. The data used consist of digital, teleseismic P and SH body waves. Long-period, broadband, and short-period records are utilized to obtain a wideband characterization of the source. The results of the global search inversion are compared with a more traditional linear-least-squares inversion for only slip amplitudes. We use a multi-time-window linear analysis to relax the constraints on rupture time and rise time in the least-squares inversion. Both inversions produce similar slip distributions, although the linear-least-squares solution has a 10% larger moment (7.3 ?? 1026 dyne-cm compared with 6.6 ?? 1026 dyne-cm). Both inversions fit the data equally well and point out the importance of (1) using a parameterization with sufficient spatial and temporal flexibility to encompass likely complexities in the rupture process, (2) including suitable physically based constraints on the inversion to reduce instabilities in the solution, and (3) focusing on those robust rupture characteristics that rise above the details of the parameterization and data set.

Shallow seismic structure of Kunlun fault zone in northern Tibetan Plateau, China: Implications for the 2001 M s8.1 Kunlun earthquake

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Wang, Chun-Yong; Mooney, W.D.; Ding, Z.; Yang, J.; Yao, Z.; Lou, H.

2009-01-01

The shallow seismic velocity structure of the Kunlun fault zone (KLFZ) was jointly deduced from seismic refraction profiling and the records of trapped waves that were excited by five explosions. The data were collected after the 2001 Kunlun M s8.1 earthquake in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Seismic phases for the in-line record sections (26 records up to a distance of 15 km) along the fault zone were analysed, and 1-D P- and S-wave velocity models of shallow crust within the fault zone were determined by using the seismic refraction method. Sixteen seismic stations were deployed along the off-line profile perpendicular to the fault zone. Fault-zone trapped waves appear clearly on the record sections, which were simulated with a 3-D finite difference algorithm. Quantitative analysis of the correlation coefficients of the synthetic and observed trapped waveforms indicates that the Kunlun fault-zone width is 300 m, and S-wave quality factor Q within the fault zone is 15. Significantly, S-wave velocities within the fault zone are reduced by 30-45 per cent from surrounding rocks to a depth of at least 1-2 km, while P-wave velocities are reduced by 7-20 per cent. A fault-zone with such P- and S-low velocities is an indication of high fluid pressure because Vs is affected more than Vp. The low-velocity and low-Q zone in the KLFZ model is the effect of multiple ruptures along the fault trace of the 2001 M s8.1 Kunlun earthquake. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 RAS.

Workshop on New Madrid geodesy and the challenges of understanding intraplate earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Boyd, Oliver; Calais, Eric; Langbein, John; Magistrale, Harold; Stein, Seth; Zoback, Mark

2013-01-01

On March 4, 2011, 26 researchers gathered in Norwood, Massachusetts, for a workshop sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey and FM Global to discuss geodesy in and around the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) and its relation to earthquake hazard. The group addressed the challenge of reconciling current geodetic measurements, which show low present-day surface strain rates, with paleoseismic evidence of recent, relatively frequent, major earthquakes in the region. Several researchers were invited by the organizing committee to give overview presentations while all participants were encouraged to present their most recent ideas. The overview presentations appear in this report along with a set of recommendations.

Spatially dependent seismic anisotropy in the Tonga subduction zone: A possible contributor to the complexity of deep earthquakes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Vavryčuk, Václav

2006-01-01

Roč. 155, 1/2 (2006), s. 63-72 ISSN 0031-9201 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012309; GA ČR GA205/02/0383 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : deep-focus earthquakes * seismic anisotropy * subduction zones Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.440, year: 2006

Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

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Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

2015-01-01

This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

Earthquake engineering development before and after the March 4, 1977, Vrancea, Romania earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgescu, E.-S.

2002-01-01

At 25 years since the of the Vrancea earthquake of March, 4th 1977, we can analyze in an open and critical way its impact on the evolution of earthquake engineering codes and protection policies in Romania. The earthquake (M G-R = 7.2; M w = 7.5), produced 1,570 casualties and more than 11,300 injured persons (90% of the victims in Bucharest), seismic losses were estimated at more then USD 2 billions. The 1977 earthquake represented a significant episode of XXth century in seismic zones of Romania and neighboring countries. The INCERC seismic record of March 4, 1977 put, for the first time, in evidence the spectral content of long period seismic motions of Vrancea earthquakes, the duration, the number of cycles and values of actual accelerations, with important effects of overloading upon flexible structures. The seismic coefficients k s , the spectral curve (the dynamic coefficient β r ) and the seismic zonation map, the requirements in the antiseismic design norms were drastically, changed while the microzonation maps of the time ceased to be used, and the specific Vrancea earthquake recurrence was reconsidered based on hazard studies Thus, the paper emphasises: - the existing engineering knowledge, earthquake code and zoning maps requirements until 1977 as well as seismology and structural lessons since 1977; - recent aspects of implementing of the Earthquake Code P.100/1992 and harmonization with Eurocodes, in conjunction with the specific of urban and rural seismic risk and enforcing policies on strengthening of existing buildings; - a strategic view of disaster prevention, using earthquake scenarios and loss assessments, insurance, earthquake education and training; - the need of a closer transfer of knowledge between seismologists, engineers and officials in charge with disaster prevention public policies. (author)

2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Japan's Nuclear Disaster - Implications for Indian Ocean Rim countries

Science.gov (United States)

Chadha, R. K.

2011-12-01

The Nuclear disaster in Japan after the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake on March 11, 2011 has elicited global response to have a relook at the safety aspects of the nuclear power plants from all angles including natural hazards like earthquakes and tsunami. Several countries have gone into safety audits of their nuclear programs in view of the experience in Japan. Tectonically speaking, countries located close to subduction zones or in direct line of impact of the subduction zones are the most vulnerable to earthquake or tsunami hazard, as these regions are the locale of great tsunamigenic earthquakes. The Japan disaster has also cautioned to the possibility of great impact to the critical structures along the coasts due to other ocean processes caused by ocean-atmosphere interactions and also due to global warming and sea level rise phenomena in future. This is particular true for island countries. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan will be remembered more because of its nuclear tragedy and tsunami rather than the earthquake itself. The disaster happened as a direct impact of a tsunami generated by the earthquake 130 km off the coast of Sendai in the Honshu region of Japan. The depth of the earthquake was about 25 km below the ocean floor and it occurred on a thrust fault causing a displacement of more than 20 meters. At few places, water is reported to have inundated areas up to 8-10 km inland. The height of the tsunami varied between 10 and 3 meters along the coast. Generally, during an earthquake damage to buildings or other structures occur due to strong shaking which is expressed in the form of ground accelerations 'g'. Although, Peak Ground Accelerations (PGA) consistently exceeded 2g at several places from Sendai down south, structures at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant did not collapse due to the earthquake. In the Indian Ocean Rim countries, Indian, Pakistan and South Africa are the three countries where Nuclear power plants are operational, few of them

GPS measurements and finite element modeling of the earthquake cycle along the Middle America subduction zone

Science.gov (United States)

Correa Mora, Francisco

We model surface deformation recorded by GPS stations along the Pacific coasts of Mexico and Central America to estimate the magnitude of and variations in frictional locking (coupling) along the subduction interface, toward a better understanding of seismic hazard in these earthquake-prone regions. The first chapter describes my primary analysis technique, namely 3-dimensional finite element modeling to simulate subduction and bounded-variable inversions that optimize the fit to the GPS velocity field. This chapter focuses on and describes interseismic coupling of the Oaxaca segment of the Mexican subduction zone and introduces an analysis of transient slip events that occur in this region. Our results indicate that coupling is strong within the rupture zone of the 1978 Ms=7.8 Oaxaca earthquake, making this region a potential source of a future large earthquake. However, we also find evidence for significant variations in coupling on the subduction interface over distances of only tens of kilometers, decreasing toward the outer edges of the 1978 rupture zone. In the second chapter, we study in more detail some of the slow slip events that have been recorded over a broad area of southern Mexico, with emphasis on their space-time behavior. Our modeling indicates that transient deformation beneath southern Mexico is focused in two distinct slip patches mostly located downdip from seismogenic areas beneath Guerrero and Oaxaca. Contrary to conclusions reached in one previous study, we find no evidence for a spatial or temporal correlation between transient slip that occurs in these two widely separated source regions. Finally, chapter three extends the modeling techniques to new GPS data in Central America, where subduction coupling is weak or zero and the upper plate deformation is much more complex than in Mexico. Cocos-Caribbean plate convergence beneath El Salvador and Nicaragua is accompanied by subduction and trench-parallel motion of the forearc. Our GPS

Deformation analysis of Aceh April 11th 2012 earthquake using GPS observation data

Science.gov (United States)

Maulida, Putra; Meilano, Irwan; Sarsito, Dina A.; Susilo

2015-04-01

This research tries to estimate the co-seismic deformation of intraplate earthquake occurred off northern Sumatra coast which is about 100-200 km southwest of Sumatrasubduction zone. The earthquake mechanism was strike-slip with magnitude 8.6 and triggering aftershock with magnitude 8.2 two hours later. We estimated the co-seismic deformation by using the GPS (Global Positioning System) continuous data along western Sumatra coast. The GPS observation derived from Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr) and Geospatial Information Agency (BIG). For data processing we used GPS Analyze at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (GAMIT) software and Global Kalman Filter (GLOBK) to estimate the co-seismic deformation. From the GPS daily solution, the result shows that the earthquake caused displacement for the GPS stations in Sumatra. GPS stations in northern Sumatra showed the displacement to the northeast with the average displacement was 15 cm. The biggest displacement was found at station BSIM which is located at Simeuleu Island off north west Sumatra coast. GPS station in middle part of Sumatra, the displacement was northwest. The earthquake also caused subsidence for stations in northern Sumatra, but from the time series there was not sign of subsidence was found at middle part of Sumatra. In addition, the effect of the earthquake was worldwide and affected the other GPS Stations around Hindia oceanic.

Megathrust earthquakes in Central Chile: What is next after the Maule 2010 earthquake?

Science.gov (United States)

Madariaga, R.

2013-05-01

The 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake occurred in a well identified gap in the Chilean subduction zone. The event has now been studied in detail using both far-field, near field seismic and geodetic data, we will review this information gathered so far. The event broke a region that was much longer along strike than the gap left over from the 1835 Concepcion earthquake, sometimes called the Darwin earthquake because he was in the area when the earthquake occurred and made many observations. Recent studies of contemporary documents by Udias et al indicate that the area broken by the Maule earthquake in 2010 had previously broken by a similar earthquake in 1751, but several events in the magnitude 8 range occurred in the area principally in 1835 already mentioned and, more recently on 1 December 1928 to the North and on 21 May 1960 (1 1/2 days before the big Chilean earthquake of 1960). Currently the area of the 2010 earthquake and the region immediately to the North is undergoing a very large increase in seismicity with numerous clusters of seismicity that move along the plate interface. Examination of the seismicity of Chile of the 18th and 19th century show that the region immediately to the North of the 2010 earthquake broke in a very large megathrust event in July 1730. this is the largest known earthquake in central Chile. The region where this event occurred has broken in many occasions with M 8 range earthquakes in 1822, 1880, 1906, 1971 and 1985. Is it preparing for a new very large megathrust event? The 1906 earthquake of Mw 8.3 filled the central part of the gap but it has broken again on several occasions in 1971, 1973 and 1985. The main question is whether the 1906 earthquake relieved enough stresses from the 1730 rupture zone. Geodetic data shows that most of the region that broke in 1730 is currently almost fully locked from the northern end of the Maule earthquake at 34.5°S to 30°S, near the southern end of the of the Mw 8.5 Atacama earthquake of 11

Fault Structural Control on Earthquake Strong Ground Motions: The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake as an Example

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Dongli; Li, Xiaojun; Huang, Bei; Zheng, Wenjun; Wang, Yuejun

2018-02-01

Continental thrust faulting earthquakes pose severe threats to megacities across the world. Recent events show the possible control of fault structures on strong ground motions. The seismogenic structure of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is associated with high-angle listric reverse fault zones. Its peak ground accelerations (PGAs) show a prominent feature of fault zone amplification: the values within the 30- to 40-km-wide fault zone block are significantly larger than those on both the hanging wall and the footwall. The PGA values attenuate asymmetrically: they decay much more rapidly in the footwall than in the hanging wall. The hanging wall effects can be seen on both the vertical and horizontal components of the PGAs, with the former significantly more prominent than the latter. All these characteristics can be adequately interpreted by upward extrusion of the high-angle listric reverse fault zone block. Through comparison with a low-angle planar thrust fault associated with the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, we conclude that different fault structures might have controlled different patterns of strong ground motion, which should be taken into account in seismic design and construction.

Earthquake activity along the Himalayan orogenic belt

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

2017-12-01

The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

Relationship of the 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture earthquake with geological structure. Evaluation of earthquake source fault in active folding zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoyagi, Yasuhira; Abe, Shintaro

2007-01-01

We compile the important points to evaluate earthquake source fault in active folding zone through a temporary aftershock observation of the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture earthquake. The aftershock distribution shows spindle shape whose middle part is wide and both ends are narrow in NNE-SSW trending. The range of seismic activity corresponds well to the distribution of fold axes in this area, whose middle part is anticlinorium (some anticlines) and both ends are single anticline. In the middle part, the west dipping aftershock plane including the mainshock (M6.8) is located under the Higashiyama anticline. Another west dipping aftershock plane including the largest aftershock (M6.5) is located under the Tamugiyama and Komatsugura anticlines, and the east margin of the aftershock distribution corresponds well with Suwa-toge flexure. Therefore the present fold structure should have been formed by an accumulation of the same faults movement. In other words, it is important to refer the fold axes distribution pattern, especially with flexure, for the evaluation of earthquake source fault. In addition, we performed FEM analyses to investigate the relation of fold structure to the thickness of the sedimentary layer and the dip angle of the fault. Reverse fault movement forms asymmetric fold above the fault, which steeper slope is formed just above the upper end of the fault. As the sedimentary layer became thicker, anticline axis moved to hanging wall side in the fold structure. As the dip angle became smaller, the wavelength of the fold became longer and the fold structure grew highly asymmetric. Thus the shape of the fold structure is useful as an index to estimate the blind thrust below it. (author)

Implication of conjugate faulting in the earthquake brewing and originating process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, L.M. (Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge); Deng, Q.; Jiang, P.

1980-03-01

The earthquake sequence, precursory and geologo-structural background of the Haicheng, Tangshan, Songpan-Pingwu earthquakes are discussed in this article. All of these earthquakes occurred in a seismic zone controlled by the main boundary faults of an intraplate fault block. However, the fault plane of a main earthquake does not consist of the same faults, but is rather a related secondary fault. They formed altogether a conjugate shearing rupture zone under the action of a regional tectonic stress field. As to the earthquake sequence, the foreshocks and aftershocks might occur on the conjugate fault planes within an epicentral region rather than be limited to the fault plane of a main earthquake, such as the distribution of foreshocks and aftershocks of the Haicheng earthquake. The characteristics of the long-, medium-, and imminent-term earthquake precursory anomalies of the three mentioned earthquakes, especially the character of well-studies anomaly phenomena in electrical resistivity, radon emission, groundwater and animal behavior, have been investigated. The studies of these earthquake precursors show that they were distributed in an area rather more extensive than the epicentral region. Some fault zones in the conjugate fault network usually appeared as distributed belts or concentrated zones of earthquake precursory anomalies, and can be traced in the medium-long term precursory field, but seem more distinct in the short-imminent term precursory anomalous field. These characteristics can be explained by the rupture and sliding originating along the conjugate shear network and the concentration of stress in the regional stress field.

Toward a physics-based rate and state friction law for earthquake nucleation processes in fault zones with granular gouge

Science.gov (United States)

Ferdowsi, B.; Rubin, A. M.

2017-12-01

Numerical simulations of earthquake nucleation rely on constitutive rate and state evolution laws to model earthquake initiation and propagation processes. The response of different state evolution laws to large velocity increases is an important feature of these constitutive relations that can significantly change the style of earthquake nucleation in numerical models. However, currently there is not a rigorous understanding of the physical origins of the response of bare rock or gouge-filled fault zones to large velocity increases. This in turn hinders our ability to design physics-based friction laws that can appropriately describe those responses. We here argue that most fault zones form a granular gouge after an initial shearing phase and that it is the behavior of the gouge layer that controls the fault friction. We perform numerical experiments of a confined sheared granular gouge under a range of confining stresses and driving velocities relevant to fault zones and apply 1-3 order of magnitude velocity steps to explore dynamical behavior of the system from grain- to macro-scales. We compare our numerical observations with experimental data from biaxial double-direct-shear fault gouge experiments under equivalent loading and driving conditions. Our intention is to first investigate the degree to which these numerical experiments, with Hertzian normal and Coulomb friction laws at the grain-grain contact scale and without any time-dependent plasticity, can reproduce experimental fault gouge behavior. We next compare the behavior observed in numerical experiments with predictions of the Dieterich (Aging) and Ruina (Slip) friction laws. Finally, the numerical observations at the grain and meso-scales will be used for designing a rate and state evolution law that takes into account recent advances in rheology of granular systems, including local and non-local effects, for a wide range of shear rates and slow and fast deformation regimes of the fault gouge.

Dynamics of Earthquake Faulting in Subduction Zones: Inference from Pseudotachylytes and Ultracataclasites in an Ancient Accretionary Complex

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Ujiie

2007-11-01

Full Text Available The fault rocks in ancient accretionary complexes exhumed from seismogenic depths may provide an invaluable opportunity to examine the mechanisms and mechanics of seismic slip in subduction thrusts and splay faults. In order to understand the dynamics of earthquake faulting in subduction zones, we analyzed pseudotachylytes and ultracataclasites from the Shimanto accretionary complex in southwest Japan. doi:10.2204/iodp.sd.s01.21.2007

Comprehensive understanding of a deep transition zone from an unstable- to stable-slip regime of the megathrust interplate earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, A.; Iidaka, T.; Ikuta, R.; Yoshida, Y.; Katsumata, K.; Iwasaki, T.; Sakai, S.; Yamaoka, K.; Watanabe, T.; Kunitomo, T.; Yamazaki, F.; Tsumura, N.; Nozaki, K.; Okubo, M.; Suzuki, S.; Hirata, N.; Zhang, H.; Thurber, C. H.

2009-12-01

Most slow slips have occurred in the deep transition zone from an unstable- to stable-slip regime. Detailed knowledge about a deep transition zone is essentially important to understand the mechanism of the slow slips, and the stress concentration process to the source region of the megathrust interplate earthquake. We have conducted a very dense seismic observation in the Tokai-region from the April to the August in 2008 through a linear deployment of 75 portable stations, in Japan. The array extended from the bottom part of the source region of the Tokai earthquake to deep low-frequency earthquakes (LFE, ~ 35 km depth) including the long-term slow-slip region (~ 25 km depth). Here we present a high-resolution tomographic imaging of seismic velocities and highly-accurate hypocenters including LFEs, using first arrival data from the dense seismograph deployment. We manually picked the first arrivals of P- and S- waves from each waveform for about 700 earthquakes including about 20 LFEs observed by the dense array. Then, we applied the TomoDD-code [Zhang and Thurber, 2003] to the arrival data set, adding an accurate double-difference data estimated by a waveform cross-correlation technique. A low velocity (Vp, Vs) layer with high Poisson’s ratio is clearly imaged, and tilts to the northwestward with a low dip angle, which corresponds to the subducting oceanic crust of the Philippine Sea Slab. Although seismicity within the oceanic crust is significantly low, few earthquakes occur within the oceanic crust. The LFEs are linearly aligned along the top surface of the subducting oceanic crust at depths from 30 to 40 km. The Poisson’s ratio within the oceanic crust does not show significant depth-dependent increase beneath the linear alignment of LFEs. This result argues against a depth section of Poisson’s ratio obtained in the SW Japan [Shelly et al., 2006]. Beneath the LFEs, active cluster of slab earthquakes are horizontally distributed. At the depths greater

Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

Science.gov (United States)

Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Source Spectra from an Array of Arrays

Science.gov (United States)

Gomberg, J. S.; Vidale, J. E.

2011-12-01

suggests it is more likely that variation in attenuation modulates the spectra. Because the variations in apparent source spectra correlate well with source location, but poorly with receiver location, we infer that near-source attenuation differences likely are much more significant. We conclude that the conventional wisdom may require some revision - that near-source propagation effects may be responsible for some fraction of what has hitherto been attributed to source processes. Moreover, our results further suggest that subduction zone earthquakes do not separate neatly into 'slow' and 'fast' classes, but likely span a continuum.

Structure of the Koyna-Warna Seismic Zone, Maharashtra, India: A possible model for large induced earthquakes elsewhere

Science.gov (United States)

Catchings, Rufus D.; Dixit, M.M.; Goldman, Mark R.; Kumar, S.

2015-01-01

The Koyna-Warna area of India is one of the best worldwide examples of reservoir-induced seismicity, with the distinction of having generated the largest known induced earthquake (M6.3 on 10 December 1967) and persistent moderate-magnitude (>M5) events for nearly 50 years. Yet, the fault structure and tectonic setting that has accommodated the induced seismicity is poorly known, in part because the seismic events occur beneath a thick sequence of basalt layers. On the basis of the alignment of earthquake epicenters over an ~50 year period, lateral variations in focal mechanisms, upper-crustal tomographic velocity images, geophysical data (aeromagnetic, gravity, and magnetotelluric), geomorphic data, and correlation with similar structures elsewhere, we suggest that the Koyna-Warna area lies within a right step between northwest trending, right-lateral faults. The sub-basalt basement may form a local structural depression (pull-apart basin) caused by extension within the step-over zone between the right-lateral faults. Our postulated model accounts for the observed pattern of normal faulting in a region that is dominated by north-south directed compression. The right-lateral faults extend well beyond the immediate Koyna-Warna area, possibly suggesting a more extensive zone of seismic hazards for the central India area. Induced seismic events have been observed many places worldwide, but relatively large-magnitude induced events are less common because critically stressed, preexisting structures are a necessary component. We suggest that releasing bends and fault step-overs like those we postulate for the Koyna-Warna area may serve as an ideal tectonic environment for generating moderate- to large- magnitude induced (reservoir, injection, etc.) earthquakes.

Spatial Relationships between Deep-focus Earthquakes and Structural Heterogeneities within the Subducting Slabs of the Western Pacific Subduction Zones

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, M.; Kiser, E.; Niu, F.

2016-12-01

The nature of deep-focus earthquakes with depths greater than 300 km has long been controversial. Mechanisms that may promote brittle deformation at such depths include dehydration embrittlement, phase transformational faulting, and thermal runaway instabilities. Of these, the most commonly referenced mechanism—phase transformational faulting—involves the breakdown of metastable olivine within the core of a cold subducting slab. Seismic observations of the metastable olivine wedge, as well as its spatial relationship to deep-focus seismicity, are limited. Classical 1-D ray-theory based tomography images indicate that deep-focus hypocenters coincide with the highest wave speed anomalies within the slab, traditionally viewed as the slab's cold core. However, our latest full waveform tomography images of the Kuril, Japan, and Izu-Bonin slabs show systematically deep-focus earthquakes located near the top of high wave speed regions, with hypocentral or centroid locations determined by EHB, global CMT, or JMA. In order to reduce location bias in global CMT solutions due to unmodeled 3-D structure, we relocate tens of deep-focus earthquakes within the new 3-D structural model based on a full wavefield modeling code SPECFEM3D_GLOBE, with seismic waves simulated to the shortest period of 9 seconds. We also determine the centroid locations of high-frequency energy (0.8 Hz-2 Hz) from back-projection results of several large earthquakes to understand how rupture propagates within the slab. The spatial correlations between the 3-D wave speed model and high-precision centroid locations from both long period and high frequency seismic waves further indicate that the deep-focus earthquakes occur and propagate near the top of the subducting slab. We will discuss the constraints that these relationships place on the mechanism of deep-focus earthquakes.

The 2012 August 27 Mw7.3 El Salvador earthquake: expression of weak coupling on the Middle America subduction zone

Science.gov (United States)

Geirsson, Halldor; LaFemina, Peter C.; DeMets, Charles; Hernandez, Douglas Antonio; Mattioli, Glen S.; Rogers, Robert; Rodriguez, Manuel; Marroquin, Griselda; Tenorio, Virginia

2015-09-01

Subduction zones exhibit variable degrees of interseismic coupling as resolved by inversions of geodetic data and analyses of seismic energy release. The degree to which a plate boundary fault is coupled can have profound effects on its seismogenic behaviour. Here we use GPS measurements to estimate co- and post-seismic deformation from the 2012 August 27, Mw7.3 megathrust earthquake offshore El Salvador, which was a tsunami earthquake. Inversions of estimated coseismic displacements are in agreement with published seismically derived source models, which indicate shallow (earthquake exceeds the coseismic deformation. Our analysis indicates that the post-seismic deformation is dominated by afterslip, as opposed to viscous relaxation, and we estimate a post-seismic moment release one to eight times greater than the coseismic moment during the first 500 d, depending on the relative location of coseismic versus post-seismic slip on the plate interface. We suggest that the excessive post-seismic motion is characteristic for the El Salvador-Nicaragua segment of the Central American margin and may be a characteristic of margins hosting tsunami earthquakes.

Earthquake clustering in modern seismicity and its relationship with strong historical earthquakes around Beijing, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jian; Main, Ian G.; Musson, Roger M. W.

2017-11-01

Beijing, China's capital city, is located in a typical intraplate seismic belt, with relatively high-quality instrumental catalogue data available since 1970. The Chinese historical earthquake catalogue contains six strong historical earthquakes of Ms ≥ 6 around Beijing, the earliest in 294 AD. This poses a significant potential hazard to one of the most densely populated and economically active parts of China. In some intraplate areas, persistent clusters of events associated with historical events can occur over centuries, for example, the ongoing sequence in the New Madrid zone of the eastern US. Here we will examine the evidence for such persistent clusters around Beijing. We introduce a metric known as the `seismic density index' that quantifies the degree of clustering of seismic energy release. For a given map location, this multi-dimensional index depends on the number of events, their magnitudes, and the distances to the locations of the surrounding population of earthquakes. We apply the index to modern instrumental catalogue data between 1970 and 2014, and identify six clear candidate zones. We then compare these locations to earthquake epicentre and seismic intensity data for the six largest historical earthquakes. Each candidate zone contains one of the six historical events, and the location of peak intensity is within 5 km or so of the reported epicentre in five of these cases. In one case—the great Ms 8 earthquake of 1679—the peak is closer to the area of strongest shaking (Intensity XI or more) than the reported epicentre. The present-day event rates are similar to those predicted by the modified Omori law but there is no evidence of ongoing decay in event rates. Accordingly, the index is more likely to be picking out the location of persistent weaknesses in the lithosphere. Our results imply zones of high seismic density index could be used in principle to indicate the location of unrecorded historical of palaeoseismic events, in China and

What controls intermediate depth seismicity in subduction zones?

Science.gov (United States)

Florez, M. A.; Prieto, G. A.

2017-12-01

Intermediate depth earthquakes seem to cluster in two distinct planes of seismicity along the subducting slab, known as Double Seismic Zones (DSZ). Precise double difference relocations in Tohoku, Japan and northern Chile confirm this pattern with striking accuracy. Furthermore, past studies have used statistical tests on the EHB global seismicity catalog to suggest that DSZs might be a dominant global feature. However, typical uncertainties associated with hypocentral depth prevent us from drawing meaningful conclusions about the detailed structure of intermediate depth seismicity and its relationship to the physical and chemical environment of most subduction zones. We have recently proposed a relative earthquake relocation algorithm based on the precise picking of the P and pP phase arrivals using array processing techniques [Florez and Prieto, 2017]. We use it to relocate seismicity in 24 carefully constructed slab segments that sample every subduction zone in the world. In all of the segments we are able to precisely delineate the structure of the double seismic zone. Our results indicate that whenever the lower plane of seismicity is active enough the width of the DSZ decreases in the down dip direction; the two planes merge at depths between 140 km and 300 km. We develop a method to unambiguously pick the depth of this merging point, the end of the DSZ, which appears to be correlated with the slab thermal parameter. We also confirm that the width of the DSZ increases with plate age. Finally, we estimate b-values for the upper and lower planes of seismicity and explore their relationships to the physical parameters that control slab subduction.

Diverse rupture modes for surface-deforming upper plate earthquakes in the southern Puget Lowland of Washington State

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Alan R.; Personius, Stephen F.; Sherrod, Brian L.; Kelsey, Harvey M.; Johnson, Samuel Y.; Bradley, Lee-Ann; Wells, Ray E.

2014-01-01

Earthquake prehistory of the southern Puget Lowland, in the north-south compressive regime of the migrating Cascadia forearc, reflects diverse earthquake rupture modes with variable recurrence. Stratigraphy and Bayesian analyses of previously reported and new 14C ages in trenches and cores along backthrust scarps in the Seattle fault zone restrict a large earthquake to 1040–910 cal yr B.P. (2σ), an interval that includes the time of the M 7–7.5 Restoration Point earthquake. A newly identified surface-rupturing earthquake along the Waterman Point backthrust dates to 940–380 cal yr B.P., bringing the number of earthquakes in the Seattle fault zone in the past 3500 yr to 4 or 5. Whether scarps record earthquakes of moderate (M 5.5–6.0) or large (M 6.5–7.0) magnitude, backthrusts of the Seattle fault zone may slip during moderate to large earthquakes every few hundred years for periods of 1000–2000 yr, and then not slip for periods of at least several thousands of years. Four new fault scarp trenches in the Tacoma fault zone show evidence of late Holocene folding and faulting about the time of a large earthquake or earthquakes inferred from widespread coseismic subsidence ca. 1000 cal yr B.P.; 12 ages from 8 sites in the Tacoma fault zone limit the earthquakes to 1050–980 cal yr B.P. Evidence is too sparse to determine whether a large earthquake was closely predated or postdated by other earthquakes in the Tacoma basin, but the scarp of the Tacoma fault was formed by multiple earthquakes. In the northeast-striking Saddle Mountain deformation zone, along the western limit of the Seattle and Tacoma fault zones, analysis of previous ages limits earthquakes to 1200–310 cal yr B.P. The prehistory clarifies earthquake clustering in the central Puget Lowland, but cannot resolve potential structural links among the three Holocene fault zones.

Monitoring shallow resistivity changes prior to the 12 May 2008 M 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on the Longmen Shan tectonic zone, China

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Jun; Xie, Tao; Li, Mei; Wang, Yali; Ren, Yuexia; Gao, Shude; Wang, Lanwei; Zhao, Jialiu

2016-04-01

An active source measurement of shallow resistivity using fixed-electrode quasi-Schlumberger arrays has been conducted at Pixian, Jiangyou and Wudu stations on the Longmen Shan tectonic zone in western China, with the hope of detecting earthquake-associated changes. For the duration of the monitoring experiment, a gradual decrease of apparent resistivity of up to 6.7% several years prior to the 12 May 2008 M 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake had been recorded clearly at Pixian station, approximately 35 km from the epicenter. The change of apparent resistivity was monitored with a fixed Schlumberger array of AB/MN spacings of 736 m/226 m in the direction of N57.5°E, giving precisions in measured daily averages of 0.16% or less. A coseismic resistivity drop of up to 5.3% was observed at Jiangyou station, using a Schlumberger array of AB/MN spacings of 710 m/90 m in the direction of N10°E. No fluctuation of resistivity was detected at Wudu station at the time of the Wenchuan mainshock. While the focus of this paper is on monitoring or tracking resistivity variations prior to, during, and after the Wenchuan earthquake, we also aim to compare resistivity records of the Wenchuan earthquake to those of the M 7.8 Tangshan and M 7.2 Songpan earthquakes of 1976. Attempts to explain the observed resistivity variations have been made. The results show that the resistivity variations observed at all three stations are in approximate agreement with resistivity-stress behavior deduced from in situ experiments, focal mechanisms, a simplified dynamical model, static stress analyses, and field investigations from along the Longmen Shan fault zone.

Deeper penetration of large earthquakes on seismically quiescent faults.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Junle; Lapusta, Nadia

2016-06-10

Why many major strike-slip faults known to have had large earthquakes are silent in the interseismic period is a long-standing enigma. One would expect small earthquakes to occur at least at the bottom of the seismogenic zone, where deeper aseismic deformation concentrates loading. We suggest that the absence of such concentrated microseismicity indicates deep rupture past the seismogenic zone in previous large earthquakes. We support this conclusion with numerical simulations of fault behavior and observations of recent major events. Our modeling implies that the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California penetrated below the seismogenic zone by at least 3 to 5 kilometers. Our findings suggest that such deeper ruptures may occur on other major fault segments, potentially increasing the associated seismic hazard. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Earthquake precursors: spatial-temporal gravity changes before the great earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan area

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Yi-Qing; Liang, Wei-Feng; Zhang, Song

2018-01-01

Using multiple-scale mobile gravity data in the Sichuan-Yunnan area, we systematically analyzed the relationships between spatial-temporal gravity changes and the 2014 Ludian, Yunnan Province Ms6.5 earthquake and the 2014 Kangding Ms6.3, 2013 Lushan Ms7.0, and 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquakes in Sichuan Province. Our main results are as follows. (1) Before the occurrence of large earthquakes, gravity anomalies occur in a large area around the epicenters. The directions of gravity change gradient belts usually agree roughly with the directions of the main fault zones of the study area. Such gravity changes might reflect the increase of crustal stress, as well as the significant active tectonic movements and surface deformations along fault zones, during the period of gestation of great earthquakes. (2) Continuous significant changes of the multiple-scale gravity fields, as well as greater gravity changes with larger time scales, can be regarded as medium-range precursors of large earthquakes. The subsequent large earthquakes always occur in the area where the gravity changes greatly. (3) The spatial-temporal gravity changes are very useful in determining the epicenter of coming large earthquakes. The large gravity networks are useful to determine the general areas of coming large earthquakes. However, the local gravity networks with high spatial-temporal resolution are suitable for determining the location of epicenters. Therefore, denser gravity observation networks are necessary for better forecasts of the epicenters of large earthquakes. (4) Using gravity changes from mobile observation data, we made medium-range forecasts of the Kangding, Ludian, Lushan, and Wenchuan earthquakes, with especially successful forecasts of the location of their epicenters. Based on the above discussions, we emphasize that medium-/long-term potential for large earthquakes might exist nowadays in some areas with significant gravity anomalies in the study region. Thus, the monitoring

Fault zone controlled seafloor methane seepage in the rupture area of the 2010 Maule Earthquake, Central Chile

OpenAIRE

Geersen, Jacob; Scholz, Florian; Linke, Peter; Schmidt, Mark; Lange, Dietrich; Behrmann, Jan H.; Völker, David; Hensen, Christian

2016-01-01

Seafloor seepage of hydrocarbon-bearing fluids has been identified in a number of marine forearcs. However, temporal variations in seep activity and the structural and tectonic parameters that control the seepage often remain poorly constrained. Subduction-zone earthquakes for example, are often discussed to trigger seafloor seepage but causal links that go beyond theoretical considerations have not yet been fully established. This is mainly due to the inaccessibility of offshore epicentral a...

Deformation analysis of Aceh April 11{sup th} 2012 earthquake using GPS observation data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maulida, Putra, E-mail: putra.maulida@gmail.com [Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Meilano, Irwan; Sarsito, Dina A. [Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Geodesy Research Group, geodesy and geomatic Engineering, ITB (Indonesia); Susilo [Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Geospatial Information Agency (BIG) (Indonesia)

2015-04-24

This research tries to estimate the co-seismic deformation of intraplate earthquake occurred off northern Sumatra coast which is about 100-200 km southwest of Sumatrasubduction zone. The earthquake mechanism was strike-slip with magnitude 8.6 and triggering aftershock with magnitude 8.2 two hours later. We estimated the co-seismic deformation by using the GPS (Global Positioning System) continuous data along western Sumatra coast. The GPS observation derived from Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr) and Geospatial Information Agency (BIG). For data processing we used GPS Analyze at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (GAMIT) software and Global Kalman Filter (GLOBK) to estimate the co-seismic deformation. From the GPS daily solution, the result shows that the earthquake caused displacement for the GPS stations in Sumatra. GPS stations in northern Sumatra showed the displacement to the northeast with the average displacement was 15 cm. The biggest displacement was found at station BSIM which is located at Simeuleu Island off north west Sumatra coast. GPS station in middle part of Sumatra, the displacement was northwest. The earthquake also caused subsidence for stations in northern Sumatra, but from the time series there was not sign of subsidence was found at middle part of Sumatra. In addition, the effect of the earthquake was worldwide and affected the other GPS Stations around Hindia oceanic.

Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

2014-05-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

Prediction of Global Damage and Reliability Based Upon Sequential Identification and Updating of RC Structures Subject to Earthquakes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Köylüoglu, H. U.

The paper deals with the prediction of global damage and future structural reliability with special emphasis on sensitivity, bias and uncertainty of these predictions dependent on the statistically equivalent realizations of the future earthquake. The predictions are based on a modified Clough......-Johnston single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator with three parameters which are calibrated to fit the displacement response and the damage development in the past earthquake....

Stress regimes in the northwest of Iran from stress inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Afra, Mahsa; Moradi, Ali; Pakzad, Mehrdad

2017-11-01

Northwestern Iran is one of the seismically active regions with a high seismic risk in the world. This area is a part of the complex tectonic system due to the interaction between Arabia, Anatolia and Eurasia. The purpose of this study is to deduce the stress regimes in the northwestern Iran and surrounding regions from stress inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms. We compile 92 focal mechanisms data from the Global CMT catalogue and other sources and also determine the focal mechanisms of 14 earthquakes applying the moment tensor inversion. We divide the studied region into 9 zones using similarity of the horizontal GPS velocities and existing focal mechanisms. We implement two stress inversion methods, Multiple Inverse Method and Iterative Joint Inversion Method, which provide comparable results in terms of orientations of maximum horizontal stress axes SHmax. The similar results of the two methods should make us more confident about the interpretations. We consider zones of exclusion surrounding all the earthquakes according to independent focal mechanisms hypothesis. The hypothesis says that the inversion should involve events that are far enough from each other in order that any previous event doesn't affect the stress field near the earthquake under consideration. Accordingly we deal with the matter by considering zones of exclusion around all the events. The result of exclusion is only significant for eastern Anatolia. The stress regime in this region changes from oblique to strike slip faulting because of the exclusion. In eastern Anatolia, the direction of maximum horizontal stress is nearly north-south. The direction alters to east-west in Talesh region. Errors of σ1 are lower in all zones comparing with errors of σ2 and σ3 and there is a trade-off between data resolution and covariance of the model. The results substantiate the strike-slip and thrust faulting stress regimes in the northwest of Iran.

Twitter earthquake detection: earthquake monitoring in a social world

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel C. Bowden

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word “earthquake” clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

Source study of the Jan Mayen transform fault strike-slip earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Pérez, Q.; Ottemöller, L.

2014-07-01

Seismic source parameters of oceanic transform zone earthquakes have been relatively poorly studied. Previous studies showed that this type of earthquakes has unique characteristics such as not only the relatively common occurrence of slow events with weak seismic radiation at high frequencies but also the occurrence of some events that have high apparent stress indicating strong high frequency radiation. We studied 5 strike-slip earthquakes in the Jan Mayen fracture zone with magnitudes in the range of 5.9 centroid time delay compared to other oceanic transform fault earthquakes.

Earthquakes Threaten Many American Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, Nancy E.

2010-01-01

Millions of U.S. children attend schools that are not safe from earthquakes, even though they are in earthquake-prone zones. Several cities and states have worked to identify and repair unsafe buildings, but many others have done little or nothing to fix the problem. The reasons for ignoring the problem include political and financial ones, but…

The 1985 central chile earthquake: a repeat of previous great earthquakes in the region?

Science.gov (United States)

Comte, D; Eisenberg, A; Lorca, E; Pardo, M; Ponce, L; Saragoni, R; Singh, S K; Suárez, G

1986-07-25

A great earthquake (surface-wave magnitude, 7.8) occurred along the coast of central Chile on 3 March 1985, causing heavy damage to coastal towns. Intense foreshock activity near the epicenter of the main shock occurred for 11 days before the earthquake. The aftershocks of the 1985 earthquake define a rupture area of 170 by 110 square kilometers. The earthquake was forecast on the basis of the nearly constant repeat time (83 +/- 9 years) of great earthquakes in this region. An analysis of previous earthquakes suggests that the rupture lengths of great shocks in the region vary by a factor of about 3. The nearly constant repeat time and variable rupture lengths cannot be reconciled with time- or slip-predictable models of earthquake recurrence. The great earthquakes in the region seem to involve a variable rupture mode and yet, for unknown reasons, remain periodic. Historical data suggest that the region south of the 1985 rupture zone should now be considered a gap of high seismic potential that may rupture in a great earthquake in the next few tens of years.

Experimental evidence that thrust earthquake ruptures might open faults.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabuchian, Vahe; Rosakis, Ares J; Bhat, Harsha S; Madariaga, Raúl; Kanamori, Hiroo

2017-05-18

Many of Earth's great earthquakes occur on thrust faults. These earthquakes predominantly occur within subduction zones, such as the 2011 moment magnitude 9.0 eathquake in Tohoku-Oki, Japan, or along large collision zones, such as the 1999 moment magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Chi-Chi, Taiwan. Notably, these two earthquakes had a maximum slip that was very close to the surface. This contributed to the destructive tsunami that occurred during the Tohoku-Oki event and to the large amount of structural damage caused by the Chi-Chi event. The mechanism that results in such large slip near the surface is poorly understood as shallow parts of thrust faults are considered to be frictionally stable. Here we use earthquake rupture experiments to reveal the existence of a torquing mechanism of thrust fault ruptures near the free surface that causes them to unclamp and slip large distances. Complementary numerical modelling of the experiments confirms that the hanging-wall wedge undergoes pronounced rotation in one direction as the earthquake rupture approaches the free surface, and this torque is released as soon as the rupture breaks the free surface, resulting in the unclamping and violent 'flapping' of the hanging-wall wedge. Our results imply that the shallow extent of the seismogenic zone of a subducting interface is not fixed and can extend up to the trench during great earthquakes through a torquing mechanism.

Global Patterns of Legacy Nitrate Storage in the Vadose Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Ascott, M.; Gooddy, D.; Wang, L.; Stuart, M.; Lewis, M.; Ward, R.; Binley, A. M.

2017-12-01

Global-scale nitrogen (N) budgets have been developed to quantify the impact of man's influence on the nitrogen cycle. However, these budgets often do not consider legacy effects such as accumulation of nitrate in the deep vadose zone. In this presentation we show that the vadose zone is an important store of nitrate which should be considered in future nitrogen budgets for effective policymaking. Using estimates of depth to groundwater and nitrate leaching for 1900-2000, we quantify for the first time the peak global storage of nitrate in the vadose zone, estimated as 605 - 1814 Teragrams (Tg). Estimates of nitrate storage are validated using previous national and basin scale estimates of N storage and observed groundwater nitrate data for North America and Europe. Nitrate accumulation per unit area is greatest in North America, China and Central and Eastern Europe where thick vadose zones are present and there is an extensive history of agriculture. In these areas the long solute travel time in the vadose zone means that the anticipated impact of changes in agricultural practices on groundwater quality may be substantially delayed. We argue that in these areas use of conventional nitrogen budget approaches is inappropriate and their continued use will lead to significant errors.

Is earthquake rate in south Iceland modified by seasonal loading?

Science.gov (United States)

Jonsson, S.; Aoki, Y.; Drouin, V.

2017-12-01

Several temporarily varying processes have the potential of modifying the rate of earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone, one of the two most active seismic zones in Iceland. These include solid earth tides, seasonal meteorological effects and influence from passing weather systems, and variations in snow and glacier loads. In this study we investigate the influence these processes may have on crustal stresses and stressing rates in the seismic zone and assess whether they appear to be influencing the earthquake rate. While historical earthquakes in the south Iceland have preferentially occurred in early summer, this tendency is less clear for small earthquakes. The local earthquake catalogue (going back to 1991, magnitude of completeness M6+ earthquakes, which occurred in June 2000 and May 2008. Standard Reasenberg earthquake declustering or more involved model independent stochastic declustering algorithms are not capable of fully eliminating the aftershocks from the catalogue. We therefore inspected the catalogue for the time period before 2000 and it shows limited seasonal tendency in earthquake occurrence. Our preliminary results show no clear correlation between earthquake rates and short-term stressing variations induced from solid earth tides or passing storms. Seasonal meteorological effects also appear to be too small to influence the earthquake activity. Snow and glacier load variations induce significant vertical motions in the area with peak loading occurring in Spring (April-May) and maximum unloading in Fall (Sept.-Oct.). Early summer occurrence of historical earthquakes therefore correlates with early unloading rather than with the peak unloading or unloading rate, which appears to indicate limited influence of this seasonal process on the earthquake activity.

20 cool facts about the New Madrid Seismic Zone-Commemorating the bicentennial of the New Madrid earthquake sequence, December 1811-February 1812 [poster

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, R.A.; McCallister, N.S.; Dart, R.L.

2011-01-01

This poster summarizes a few of the more significant facts about the series of large earthquakes that struck the New Madrid seismic zone of southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent parts of Tennessee and Kentucky from December 1811 to February 1812. Three earthquakes in this sequence had a magnitude (M) of 7.0 or greater. The first earthquake occurred on December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m.; the second on January 23, 1812, at 9 a.m.; and the third on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These three earthquakes were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. The mainshocks were followed by many hundreds of aftershocks that occurred over the next decade. Many of the aftershocks were major earthquakes themselves. The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2-3 times as large as the strongly shaken area of the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake. Geologic studies show that the 1811-1812 sequence was not an isolated event in the New Madrid region. The 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence was preceded by at least two other similar sequences in about A.D. 1450 and A.D. 900. Research also indicates that other large earthquakes have occurred in the region surrounding the main New Madrid seismicity trends in the past 5,000 years or so.

Global biogeochemical provinces of the mesopelagic zone

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reygondeau, Gabriel; Guidi, Lionel; Beaugrand, Gregory

2018-01-01

Aim: Following the biogeographical approach implemented by Longhurst for the epipelagic layer, we propose here to identify a biogeochemical 3-D partition for the mesopelagic layer. The resulting partition characterizes the main deep environmental biotopes and their vertical boundaries on a global...... scale, which can be used as a geographical and ecological framework for conservation biology, ecosystem-based management and for the design of oceanographic investigations. Location: The global ocean. Methods: Based on the most comprehensive environmental climatology available to date, which is both...... of the mesopelagic layer. Results: First, we show via numerical interpretation that the vertical division of the pelagic zone varies and, hence, is not constant throughout the global ocean. Indeed, a latitudinal gradient is found between the epipelagic-mesopelagic and mesopelagic-bathypelagic vertical limits. Second...

Investigation of Backprojection Uncertainties With M6 Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, Wenyuan; Shearer, Peter M.

2017-10-01

We investigate possible biasing effects of inaccurate timing corrections on teleseismic P wave backprojection imaging of large earthquake ruptures. These errors occur because empirically estimated time shifts based on aligning P wave first arrivals are exact only at the hypocenter and provide approximate corrections for other parts of the rupture. Using the Japan subduction zone as a test region, we analyze 46 M6-M7 earthquakes over a 10 year period, including many aftershocks of the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake, performing waveform cross correlation of their initial P wave arrivals to obtain hypocenter timing corrections to global seismic stations. We then compare backprojection images for each earthquake using its own timing corrections with those obtained using the time corrections from other earthquakes. This provides a measure of how well subevents can be resolved with backprojection of a large rupture as a function of distance from the hypocenter. Our results show that backprojection is generally very robust and that the median subevent location error is about 25 km across the entire study region (˜700 km). The backprojection coherence loss and location errors do not noticeably converge to zero even when the event pairs are very close (<20 km). This indicates that most of the timing differences are due to 3-D structure close to each of the hypocenter regions, which limits the effectiveness of attempts to refine backprojection images using aftershock calibration, at least in this region.

Systematic deficiency of aftershocks in areas of high coseismic slip for large subduction zone earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Wetzler, Nadav; Lay, Thorne; Brodsky, Emily E.; Kanamori, Hiroo

2018-01-01

Fault slip during plate boundary earthquakes releases a portion of the shear stress accumulated due to frictional resistance to relative plate motions. Investigation of 101 large [moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 7] subduction zone plate boundary mainshocks with consistently determined coseismic slip distributions establishes that 15 to 55% of all master event–relocated aftershocks with Mw ≥ 5.2 are located within the slip regions of the mainshock ruptures and few are located in peak slip regions, allowing for uncertainty in the slip models. For the preferred models, cumulative deficiency of aftershocks within the central three-quarters of the scaled slip regions ranges from 15 to 45%, increasing with the total number of observed aftershocks. The spatial gradients of the mainshock coseismic slip concentrate residual shear stress near the slip zone margins and increase stress outside the slip zone, driving both interplate and intraplate aftershock occurrence near the periphery of the mainshock slip. The shear stress reduction in large-slip regions during the mainshock is generally sufficient to preclude further significant rupture during the aftershock sequence, consistent with large-slip areas relocking and not rupturing again for a substantial time. PMID:29487902

Earthquake location in island arcs

Science.gov (United States)

Engdahl, E.R.; Dewey, J.W.; Fujita, K.

1982-01-01

A comprehensive data set of selected teleseismic P-wave arrivals and local-network P- and S-wave arrivals from large earthquakes occurring at all depths within a small section of the central Aleutians is used to examine the general problem of earthquake location in island arcs. Reference hypocenters for this special data set are determined for shallow earthquakes from local-network data and for deep earthquakes from combined local and teleseismic data by joint inversion for structure and location. The high-velocity lithospheric slab beneath the central Aleutians may displace hypocenters that are located using spherically symmetric Earth models; the amount of displacement depends on the position of the earthquakes with respect to the slab and on whether local or teleseismic data are used to locate the earthquakes. Hypocenters for trench and intermediate-depth events appear to be minimally biased by the effects of slab structure on rays to teleseismic stations. However, locations of intermediate-depth events based on only local data are systematically displaced southwards, the magnitude of the displacement being proportional to depth. Shallow-focus events along the main thrust zone, although well located using only local-network data, are severely shifted northwards and deeper, with displacements as large as 50 km, by slab effects on teleseismic travel times. Hypocenters determined by a method that utilizes seismic ray tracing through a three-dimensional velocity model of the subduction zone, derived by thermal modeling, are compared to results obtained by the method of joint hypocenter determination (JHD) that formally assumes a laterally homogeneous velocity model over the source region and treats all raypath anomalies as constant station corrections to the travel-time curve. The ray-tracing method has the theoretical advantage that it accounts for variations in travel-time anomalies within a group of events distributed over a sizable region of a dipping, high

Global Compilation of InSAR Earthquake Source Models: Comparisons with Seismic Catalogues and the Effects of 3D Earth Structure

Science.gov (United States)

Weston, J. M.; Ferreira, A. M.; Funning, G. J.

2010-12-01

While past progress in seismology led to extensive earthquake catalogues such as the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogue, recent advances in space geodesy have enabled earthquake parameter estimations from the measurement of the deformation of the Earth’s surface, notably using InSAR data. Many earthquakes have now been studied using InSAR, but a full assessment of the quality and of the additional value of these source parameters compared to traditional seismological techniques is still lacking. In this study we present results of systematic comparisons between earthquake CMT parameters determined using InSAR and seismic data, on a global scale. We compiled a large database of source parameters obtained using InSAR data from the literature and estimated the corresponding CMT parameters into a ICMT compilation. We here present results from the analysis of 58 earthquakes that occurred between 1992-2007 from about 80 published InSAR studies. Multiple studies of the same earthquake are included in the archive, as they are valuable to assess uncertainties. Where faults are segmented, with changes in width along-strike, a weighted average based on the seismic moment in each fault has been used to determine overall earthquake parameters. For variable slip models, we have calculated source parameters taking the spatial distribution of slip into account. The parameters in our ICMT compilation are compared with those taken from the Global CMT (GCMT), ISC, EHB and NEIC catalogues. We find that earthquake fault strike, dip and rake values in the GCMT and ICMT archives are generally compatible with each other. Likewise, the differences in seismic moment in these two archives are relatively small. However, the locations of the centroid epicentres show substantial discrepancies, which are larger when comparing with GCMT locations (10-30km differences) than for EHB, ISC and NEIC locations (5-15km differences). Since InSAR data have a high spatial resolution, and thus

A High-Resolution View of Global Seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Waldhauser, F.; Schaff, D. P.

2014-12-01

We present high-precision earthquake relocation results from our global-scale re-analysis of the combined seismic archives of parametric data for the years 1964 to present from the International Seismological Centre (ISC), the USGS's Earthquake Data Report (EDR), and selected waveform data from IRIS. We employed iterative, multistep relocation procedures that initially correct for large location errors present in standard global earthquake catalogs, followed by a simultaneous inversion of delay times formed from regional and teleseismic arrival times of first and later arriving phases. An efficient multi-scale double-difference (DD) algorithm is used to solve for relative event locations to the precision of a few km or less, while incorporating information on absolute hypocenter locations from catalogs such as EHB and GEM. We run the computations on both a 40-core cluster geared towards HTC problems (data processing) and a 500-core HPC cluster for data inversion. Currently, we are incorporating waveform correlation delay time measurements available for events in selected regions, but are continuously building up a comprehensive, global correlation database for densely distributed events recorded at stations with a long history of high-quality waveforms. The current global DD catalog includes nearly one million earthquakes, equivalent to approximately 70% of the number of events in the ISC/EDR catalogs initially selected for relocation. The relocations sharpen the view of seismicity in most active regions around the world, in particular along subduction zones where event density is high, but also along mid-ocean ridges where existing hypocenters are especially poorly located. The new data offers the opportunity to investigate earthquake processes and fault structures along entire plate boundaries at the ~km scale, and provides a common framework that facilitates analysis and comparisons of findings across different plate boundary systems.

Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

Science.gov (United States)

Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

2015-01-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

Foreshocks and aftershocks of strong earthquakes in the light of catastrophe theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guglielmi, A V

2015-01-01

In this review, general ideas and specific results from catastrophe theory and the theory of critical phenomena are applied to the analysis of strong earthquakes. Aspects given particular attention are the sharp rise in the fluctuation level, the increased reactivity of dynamical systems in the near-threshold region, and other anomalous phenomena similar to critical opalescence. Given the lack of a sufficiently complete theory of earthquakes, this appears to be a valid approach to the analysis of observations. The study performed brought out some nontrivial properties of a strong-earthquake source that manifest themselves both before and after the main rupture discontinuity forms at the mainshock. In the course of the analysis of the foreshocks and aftershocks, such concepts as the round-the-world seismic echo, the cumulative effect of converging surface waves on the epicentral zone, and global seismicity modulation by Earth's free oscillations are introduced. Further research in this field is likely to be interesting and promising. (methodological notes)

Foreshocks and aftershocks of strong earthquakes in the light of catastrophe theory

Science.gov (United States)

Guglielmi, A. V.

2015-04-01

In this review, general ideas and specific results from catastrophe theory and the theory of critical phenomena are applied to the analysis of strong earthquakes. Aspects given particular attention are the sharp rise in the fluctuation level, the increased reactivity of dynamical systems in the near-threshold region, and other anomalous phenomena similar to critical opalescence. Given the lack of a sufficiently complete theory of earthquakes, this appears to be a valid approach to the analysis of observations. The study performed brought out some nontrivial properties of a strong-earthquake source that manifest themselves both before and after the main rupture discontinuity forms at the mainshock. In the course of the analysis of the foreshocks and aftershocks, such concepts as the round-the-world seismic echo, the cumulative effect of converging surface waves on the epicentral zone, and global seismicity modulation by Earth's free oscillations are introduced. Further research in this field is likely to be interesting and promising.

Seismic Regionalization of Michoacan, Mexico and Recurrence Periods for Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Magaña García, N.; Figueroa-Soto, Á.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.; Zúñiga, R.

2017-12-01

Michoacán is one of the states with the highest occurrence of earthquakes in Mexico and it is a limit of convergence triggered by the subduction of Cocos plate over the North American plate, located in the zone of the Pacific Ocean of our country, in addition to the existence of active faults inside of the state like the Morelia-Acambay Fault System (MAFS).It is important to make a combination of seismic, paleosismological and geological studies to have good planning and development of urban complexes to mitigate disasters if destructive earthquakes appear. With statistical seismology it is possible to characterize the degree of seismic activity as well as to estimate the recurrence periods for earthquakes. For this work, seismicity catalog of Michoacán was compiled and homogenized in time and magnitude. This information was obtained from world and national agencies (SSN, CMT, etc), some data published by Mendoza and Martínez-López (2016) and starting from the seismic catalog homogenized by F. R. Zúñiga (Personal communication). From the analysis of the different focal mechanisms reported in the literature and geological studies, the seismic regionalization of the state of Michoacán complemented the one presented by Vázquez-Rosas (2012) and the recurrence periods for earthquakes within the four different seismotectonic regions. In addition, stable periods were determined for the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter (1944) using the Maximum Curvature and EMR (Entire Magnitude Range Method, 2005) techniques, which allowed us to determine recurrence periods: years for earthquakes upper to 7.5 for the subduction zone (A zone) with EMR technique and years with MAXC technique for the same years for earthquakes upper to 5 for B1 zone with EMR technique and years with MAXC technique; years for earthquakes upper to 7.0 for B2 zone with EMR technique and years with MAXC technique; and the last one, the Morelia-Acambay Fault Sistem zone (C zone) years for earthquakes

Slip rate on the San Diego trough fault zone, inner California Borderland, and the 1986 Oceanside earthquake swarm revisited

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Holly F.; Conrad, James E.; Paull, C.K.; McGann, Mary

2012-01-01

The San Diego trough fault zone (SDTFZ) is part of a 90-km-wide zone of faults within the inner California Borderland that accommodates motion between the Pacific and North American plates. Along with most faults offshore southern California, the slip rate and paleoseismic history of the SDTFZ are unknown. We present new seismic reflection data that show that the fault zone steps across a 5-km-wide stepover to continue for an additional 60 km north of its previously mapped extent. The 1986 Oceanside earthquake swarm is located within the 20-km-long restraining stepover. Farther north, at the latitude of Santa Catalina Island, the SDTFZ bends 20° to the west and may be linked via a complex zone of folds with the San Pedro basin fault zone (SPBFZ). In a cooperative program between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI), we measure and date the coseismic offset of a submarine channel that intersects the fault zone near the SDTFZ–SPBFZ junction. We estimate a horizontal slip rate of about 1:5 0:3 mm=yr over the past 12,270 yr.

Design and application of the emergency response mobile phone-based information system for infectious disease reporting in the Wenchuan earthquake zone.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Jiaqi; Zhou, Maigeng; Li, Yanfei; Guo, Yan; Su, Xuemei; Qi, Xiaopeng; Ge, Hui

2009-05-01

To describe the design and application of an emergency response mobile phone-based information system for infectious disease reporting. Software engineering and business modeling were used to design and develop the emergency response mobile phone-based information system for infectious disease reporting. Seven days after the initiation of the reporting system, the reporting rate in the earthquake zone reached the level of the same period in 2007, using the mobile phone-based information system. Surveillance of the weekly report on morbidity in the earthquake zone after the initiation of the mobile phone reporting system showed the same trend as the previous three years. The emergency response mobile phone-based information system for infectious disease reporting was an effective solution to transmit urgently needed reports and manage communicable disease surveillance information. This assured the consistency of disease surveillance and facilitated sensitive, accurate, and timely disease surveillance. It is an important backup for the internet-based direct reporting system for communicable disease. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd and Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University.

NRIAG's Effort to Mitigate Earthquake Disasters in Egypt Using GPS and Seismic Data

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, Salah

It has been estimated that, during historical time more than 50 million people have lost their lives in earthquakes during ground shaking, such as soil amplification and/or liquefaction, landslides and tsunamis or its immediate aftereffects, as fires. The distribution of population takes generally no account of earthquake risk, at least on a large scale. An earthquake may be large but not destructive, on the other hand, an earthquake may be destructive but not large. The absence of correlation is due to the fact that, great number of other factors entering into consideration: first of all, the location of the earthquake in relation to populated areas, also soil conditions and building constructions. Soil liquefaction has been identified as the underlying phenomenon for many ground failures, settlements and lateral spreads, which are a major cause of damage to soil structures and building foundations in many events. Egypt is suffered a numerous of destructive earthquakes as well as Kalabsha earthquake (1981, Mag 5.4) near Aswan city and the High dam, Dahshour earthquake (1992, Mag 5.9) near Cairo city and Aqaba earthquake (1995, Mag 7.2). As the category of earthquake damage includes all the phenomena related to the direct and indirect damages, the Egyptian authorities do a great effort to mitigate the earthquake disasters. The seismicity especially at the zones of high activity is investigated in details in order to obtain the active source zones not only by the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) but also by the local seismic networks at, Aswan, Hurghada, Aqaba, Abu Dabbab and Dabbaa. On the other hand the soil condition, soil amplification, soil structure interaction, liquefaction and seismic hazard are carried out in particular the urbanized areas and the region near the source zones. All these parameters are integrated to obtain the Egyptian building code which is valid to construct buildings resist damages and consequently mitigate the earthquake

Slow Earthquake Hunters: A New Citizen Science Project to Identify and Catalog Slow Slip Events in Geodetic Data

Science.gov (United States)

Bartlow, N. M.

2017-12-01

Slow Earthquake Hunters is a new citizen science project to detect, catalog, and monitor slow slip events. Slow slip events, also called "slow earthquakes", occur when faults slip too slowly to generate significant seismic radiation. They typically take between a few days and over a year to occur, and are most often found on subduction zone plate interfaces. While not dangerous in and of themselves, recent evidence suggests that monitoring slow slip events is important for earthquake hazards, as slow slip events have been known to trigger damaging "regular" earthquakes. Slow slip events, because they do not radiate seismically, are detected with a variety of methods, most commonly continuous geodetic Global Positioning System (GPS) stations. There is now a wealth of GPS data in some regions that experience slow slip events, but a reliable automated method to detect them in GPS data remains elusive. This project aims to recruit human users to view GPS time series data, with some post-processing to highlight slow slip signals, and flag slow slip events for further analysis by the scientific team. Slow Earthquake Hunters will begin with data from the Cascadia subduction zone, where geodetically detectable slow slip events with a duration of at least a few days recur at regular intervals. The project will then expand to other areas with slow slip events or other transient geodetic signals, including other subduction zones, and areas with strike-slip faults. This project has not yet rolled out to the public, and is in a beta testing phase. This presentation will show results from an initial pilot group of student participants at the University of Missouri, and solicit feedback for the future of Slow Earthquake Hunters.

The Great Maule earthquake: seismicity prior to and after the main shock from amphibious seismic networks

Science.gov (United States)

Lieser, K.; Arroyo, I. G.; Grevemeyer, I.; Flueh, E. R.; Lange, D.; Tilmann, F. J.

2013-12-01

The Chilean subduction zone is among the seismically most active plate boundaries in the world and its coastal ranges suffer from a magnitude 8 or larger megathrust earthquake every 10-20 years. The Constitución-Concepción or Maule segment in central Chile between ~35.5°S and 37°S was considered to be a mature seismic gap, rupturing last in 1835 and being seismically quiet without any magnitude 4.5 or larger earthquakes reported in global catalogues. It is located to the north of the nucleation area of the 1960 magnitude 9.5 Valdivia earthquake and to the south of the 1928 magnitude 8 Talca earthquake. On 27 February 2010 this segment ruptured in a Mw=8.8 earthquake, nucleating near 36°S and affecting a 500-600 km long segment of the margin between 34°S and 38.5°S. Aftershocks occurred along a roughly 600 km long portion of the central Chilean margin, most of them offshore. Therefore, a network of 30 ocean-bottom-seismometers was deployed in the northern portion of the rupture area for a three month period, recording local offshore aftershocks between 20 September 2010 and 25 December 2010. In addition, data of a network consisting of 33 landstations of the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam were included into the network, providing an ideal coverage of both the rupture plane and areas affected by post-seismic slip as deduced from geodetic data. Aftershock locations are based on automatically detected P wave onsets and a 2.5D velocity model of the combined on- and offshore network. Aftershock seismicity analysis in the northern part of the survey area reveals a well resolved seismically active splay fault in the accretionary prism of the Chilean forearc. Our findings imply that in the northernmost part of the rupture zone, co-seismic slip most likely propagated along the splay fault and not the subduction thrust fault. In addition, the updip limit of aftershocks along the plate interface can be verified to about 40 km landwards from the deformation front. Prior to

Dense Ocean Floor Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis; DONET/ DONET2, Part2 -Development and data application for the mega thrust earthquakes around the Nankai trough-

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneda, Y.; Kawaguchi, K.; Araki, E.; Matsumoto, H.; Nakamura, T.; Nakano, M.; Kamiya, S.; Ariyoshi, K.; Baba, T.; Ohori, M.; Hori, T.; Takahashi, N.; Kaneko, S.; Donet Research; Development Group

2010-12-01

Yoshiyuki Kaneda Katsuyoshi Kawaguchi*, Eiichiro Araki*, Shou Kaneko*, Hiroyuki Matsumoto*, Takeshi Nakamura*, Masaru Nakano*, Shinichirou Kamiya*, Keisuke Ariyoshi*, Toshitaka Baba*, Michihiro Ohori*, Narumi Takakahashi*, and Takane Hori** * Earthquake and Tsunami Research Project for Disaster Prevention, Leading Project , Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) **Institute for Research on Earth Evolution, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) DONET (Dense Ocean Floor Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis) is the real time monitoring system of the Tonankai seismogenic zones around the Nankai trough southwestern Japan. We were starting to develop DONET to perform real time monitoring of crustal activities over there and the advanced early warning system. DONET will provide important and useful data to understand the Nankai trough maga thrust earthquake seismogenic zones and to improve the accuracy of the earthquake recurrence cycle simulation. Details of DONET concept are as follows. 1) Redundancy, Extendable function and advanced maintenance system using the looped cable system, junction boxes and the ROV/AUV. DONET has 20 observatories and incorporated in a double land stations concept. Also, we are developed ROV for the 10km cable extensions and heavy weight operations. 2) Multi kinds of sensors to observe broad band phenomena such as long period tremors, very low frequency earthquakes and strong motions of mega thrust earthquakes over M8: Therefore, sensors such as a broadband seismometer, an accelerometer, a hydrophone, a precise pressure gauge, a differential pressure gauge and a thermometer are equipped with each observatory in DONET. 3) For speedy detections, evaluations and notifications of earthquakes and tsunamis: DONET system will be deployed around the Tonankai seismogenic zone. 4) Provide data of ocean floor crustal deformations derived from pressure sensors: Simultaneously, the development of data

Upper-Mantel Earthquakes in the Australia-Pacific Plate Boundary Zone and the Roots of the Alpine Fault

Science.gov (United States)

Boese, C. M.; Warren-Smith, E.; Townend, J.; Stern, T. A.; Lamb, S. H.

2016-12-01

Seismicity in the upper mantle in continental collision zones is relatively rare, but observed around the world. Temporary seismometer deployments have repeatedly detected mantle earthquakes at depths of 40-100 km within the Australia-Pacific plate boundary zone beneath the South Island of New Zealand. Here, the transpressive Alpine Fault constitutes the primary plate boundary structure linking subduction zones of opposite polarity farther north and south. The Southern Alps Microearthquake Borehole Array (SAMBA) has been operating continuously since November 2008 along a 50 km-long section of the central Alpine Fault, where the rate of uplift of the Southern Alps is highest. To date it has detected more than 40 small to moderate-sized mantle events (1≤ML≤3.9). The Central Otago Seismic Array (COSA) has been in operation since late 2012 and detected 15 upper mantle events along the sub-vertical southern Alpine Fault. Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain the occurrence of upper mantle seismicity in the South Island, including intra-continental subduction (Reyners 1987, Geology); high shear-strain gradients due to depressed geotherms and viscous deformation of mantle lithosphere (Kohler and Eberhart-Phillips 2003, BSSA); high strain rates resulting from plate bending (Boese et al. 2013, EPSL), and underthrusting of the Australian plate (Lamb et al. 2015, G3). Focal mechanism analysis reveals a variety of mechanisms for the upper mantle events but predominantly strike-slip and reverse faulting. In this study, we apply spectral analysis to better constrain source parameters for these mantle events. These results are interpreted in conjunction with new information about crustal structure and low-frequency earthquakes near the Moho and in light of existing velocity, attenuation and resistivity models.

Modelling guided waves in the Alaskan-Aleutian subduction zone

Science.gov (United States)

Coulson, Sophie; Garth, Thomas; Reitbrock, Andreas

2016-04-01

Subduction zone guided wave arrivals from intermediate depth earthquakes (70-300 km depth) have a huge potential to tell us about the velocity structure of the subducting oceanic crust as it dehydrates at these depths. We see guided waves as the oceanic crust has a slower seismic velocity than the surrounding material, and so high frequency energy is retained and delayed in the crustal material. Lower frequency energy is not retained in this crustal waveguide and so travels at faster velocities of the surrounding material. This gives a unique observation at the surface with low frequency energy arriving before the higher frequencies. We constrain this guided wave dispersion by comparing the waveforms recorded in real subduction zones with simulated waveforms, produced using finite difference full waveform modelling techniques. This method has been used to show that hydrated minerals in the oceanic crust persist to much greater depths than accepted thermal petrological subduction zone models would suggest in Northern Japan (Garth & Rietbrock, 2014a), and South America (Garth & Rietbrock, in prep). These observations also suggest that the subducting oceanic mantle may be highly hydrated at intermediate depth by dipping normal faults (Garth & Rietbrock 2014b). We use this guided wave analysis technique to constrain the velocity structure of the down going ~45 Ma Pacific plate beneath Alaska. Dispersion analysis is primarily carried out on guided wave arrivals recorded on the Alaskan regional seismic network. Earthquake locations from global earthquake catalogues (ISC and PDE) and regional earthquake locations from the AEIC (Alaskan Earthquake Information Centre) catalogue are used to constrain the slab geometry and to identify potentially dispersive events. Dispersed arrivals are seen at stations close to the trench, with high frequency (>2 Hz) arrivals delayed by 2 - 4 seconds. This dispersion is analysed to constrain the velocity and width of the proposed waveguide

Scientific aspects of the Tohoku earthquake and Fukushima nuclear accident

Science.gov (United States)

Koketsu, Kazuki

2016-04-01

We investigated the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the accident of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, and assessments conducted beforehand for earthquake and tsunami potential in the Pacific offshore region of the Tohoku District. The results of our investigation show that all the assessments failed to foresee the earthquake and its related tsunami, which was the main cause of the accident. Therefore, the disaster caused by the earthquake, and the accident were scientifically unforeseeable at the time. However, for a zone neighboring the reactors, a 2008 assessment showed tsunamis higher than the plant height. As a lesson learned from the accident, companies operating nuclear power plants should be prepared using even such assessment results for neighboring zones.

Lithospheric Structure of the Incoming Nazca Plate Adjacent to the 2014 Iquique Earthquake Rupture Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, E. K.; Trehu, A. M.; Davenport, K. K.; Roland, E. C.

2017-12-01

The 2014 Iquique Mw 8.1 earthquake occurred within a 500-km long segment of the Peru-Chile subduction zone that had not experienced a significant earthquake since 1877. This event did not fill the entire seismic gap and details of the deformation, along with local gravity anomalies, point to a geologic control on slip behavior. To better constrain along-strike changes in geologic or morphologic features and the correlation with earthquake rupture, the 2016 PICTURES (Pisagua-Iquique Crustal Tomography to Understand the Region of the Earthquake Source) experiment collected multichannel seismic (MCS) and ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) data from across the deformation front and incoming Nazca plate within the area of the 2014 earthquake. Here, we provide a first look at MCS reflection data from this experiment that images the Nazca plate along an uninterrupted 170 km line perpendicular to the region of greatest slip, acquired using the R/V Langseth's 12.5 km streamer and 6600 cc gun array. We summarize structural features of the incoming oceanic lithosphere and present a preliminary 2D velocity model that spans the Nazca outer rise to the trench along the Iquique Ridge (IR). The IR represents a broad, high oceanic feature (HOF) that roughly spans the entire seismic gap. The source of buoyancy and reduced seismic velocities of the IR swell are thought to be produced by isostatically compensated, overthickened crust or anomalously low density mantle due to heating or serpentinization, and we explore these two hypotheses using our preliminary velocity model. Past outer rise deformation modeling suggests a significant bending moment and vertical force at the trench axis, a source for broad, homogenous coupling as the HOF converges the margin. However, decreased incoming sediment and rough topography associated with numerous large seamounts may also lead to a thin subduction channel, influencing heterogeneous rupture behavior. Seaward of the Iquique 2014 event, our initial

Investigation of Back-Projection Uncertainties with M6 Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, W.; Shearer, P. M.

2017-12-01

We investigate possible biasing effects of inaccurate timing corrections on teleseismic P-wave back-projection imaging of large earthquake ruptures. These errors occur because empirically-estimated time shifts based on aligning P-wave first arrivals are exact only at the hypocenter and provide approximate corrections for other parts of the rupture. Using the Japan subduction zone as a test region, we analyze 46 M6-7 earthquakes over a ten-year period, including many aftershocks of the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake, performing waveform cross-correlation of their initial P-wave arrivals to obtain hypocenter timing corrections to global seismic stations. We then compare back-projection images for each earthquake using its own timing corrections with those obtained using the time corrections for other earthquakes. This provides a measure of how well sub-events can be resolved with back-projection of a large rupture as a function of distance from the hypocenter. Our results show that back-projection is generally very robust and that sub-event location errors average about 20 km across the entire study region ( 700 km). The back-projection coherence loss and location errors do not noticeably converge to zero even when the event pairs are very close (<20 km). This indicates that most of the timing differences are due to 3D structure close to each of the hypocenter regions, which limits the effectiveness of attempts to refine back-projection images using aftershock calibration, at least in this region.

Pre-seismic geomagnetic and ionosphere signatures related to the Mw5.7 earthquake occurred in Vrancea zone on September 24, 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Stanica, Dragos Armand; Stanica, Dumitru; Błęcki, Jan; Ernst, Tomasz; Jóźwiak, Waldemar; Słomiński, Jan

2018-02-01

To emphasize the relationship between the pre-seismic geomagnetic signals and Vrancea seismicity, in this work it is hypothesized that before an earthquake initiation, the high stress reached into seismogenic volume generates dehydration of the rocks and fracturing processes followed by release of electric charges along the faulting systems, which lead to resistivity changes. These changes were explored on September 2016 by the normalized function Bzn obtained from the geomagnetic data recorded in ULF range (0.001-0.0083 Hz). A statistical analysis was also performed to discriminate on the new Bzn* time series a pre-seismic signature related to the Mw5.7 earthquake. Significant anomalous behavior of Bzn* was identified on September 21, with 3 days prior to the onset of the seismic event. Similar information is provided by registrations of the magnetic and electron concentration variations in the ionosphere over the Vrancea zone, by Swarm satellites, 4 days and 1 day before the earthquake.

Global earthquake catalogs and long-range correlation of seismic activity (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Ogata, Y.

2009-12-01

In view of the long-term seismic activity in the world, homogeneity of a global catalog is indispensable. Lately, Engdahl and Villaseñor (2002) compiled a global earthquake catalog of magnitude (M)7.0 or larger during the last century (1900-1999). This catalog is based on the various existing catalogs such as Abe catalog (Abe, 1981, 1984; Abe and Noguchi, 1983a, b) for the world seismicity (1894-1980), its modified catalogs by Perez and Scholz (1984) and by Pacheco and Sykes (1992), and also the Harvard University catalog since 1975. However, the original surface wave magnitudes of Abe catalog were systematically changed by Perez and Scholz (1984) and Pacheco and Sykes (1992). They suspected inhomogeneity of the Abe catalog and claimed that the two seeming changes in the occurrence rate around 1922 and 1948 resulted from magnitude shifts for some instrumental-related reasons. They used a statistical test assuming that such a series of large earthquakes in the world should behave as the stationary Poisson process (uniform occurrences). It is obvious that their claim strongly depends on their a priori assumption of an independent or short-range dependence of earthquake occurrence. We question this assumption from the viewpoint of long-range dependence of seismicity. We make some statistical analyses of the spectrum, dispersion-time diagrams and R/S for estimating and testing of the long-range correlations. We also attempt to show the possibility that the apparent rate change in the global seismicity can be simulated by a certain long-range correlated process. Further, if we divide the globe into the two regions of high and low latitudes, for example, we have different shapes of the cumulative curves to each other, and the above mentioned apparent change-points disappear from the both regions. This suggests that the Abe catalog shows the genuine seismic activity rather than the artifact of the suspected magnitude shifts that should appear in any wide enough regions

Earthquake occurrence along the Java trench in front of the onset of the Wadati-Benioff zone: Beginning of a new subduction cycle?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Špičák, Aleš; Hanuš, Václav; Vaněk, Jiří

2007-01-01

Roč. 26, č. 1 (2007), TC1005/1-TC1005/16 ISSN 0278-7407 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012303 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : Wadati-Benioff zone * earthquake occurrence * Java trench Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.398, year: 2007

Surface wave tomography across the Sorgenfrei-Tornquist Zone, SW Scandinavia, using ambient noise and earthquake data

Science.gov (United States)

Köhler, Andreas; Maupin, Valérie; Balling, Niels

2015-10-01

We produce a S-wave velocity model of the crust and upper mantle around the Sorgenfrei-Tornquist Zone, southern Scandinavia, by analysing ambient seismic noise and earthquake recordings on temporary and permanent regional network stations. In a first step, we perform tomographical inversion of surface wave dispersion data from seismic noise to obtain Rayleigh and Love wave phase-velocity maps from 3 to about 30 s period. Local dispersion curves are then combined with regionally averaged surface wave velocities from earthquake data measured between 15 and about 100 s period. Dispersion curves are jointly inverted for a 3-D model of the S-wave velocity and radial velocity anisotropy by using a combined Monte Carlo and linearized inversion approach. Results reveal significant crustal as well as uppermost mantle velocity variations at all depth levels. Upper crustal structural variations are mainly controlled by the thick sedimentary Danish Basin with both low S-wave velocities and high anisotropy. Despite of the known limited capability of surface wave inversion to constrain interface depths and model parameter trade-offs, obtained Moho depths are in good agreement with previous studies in the region. Marked crustal thinning is clearly revealed beneath the Danish Basin with a narrow transition to the thicker crust in Swedish shield areas. Despite very different crustal and morphological structures, Denmark and southern Norway both have similar well-defined upper-mantle low-velocity zones, interpreted as asthenosphere, starting a depth of about 100 km. Compared with southern Sweden, showing high upper-mantle velocities, characteristic for shields, velocities are reduced by 0.30-0.40 km s-1 (6-8 per cent) at the depth levels of 140-200 km and radial anisotropy of 2-4 per cent is observed. Our study confirms the importance of the Sorgenfrei-Tornquist Zone, as a very deep structural boundary, separating old, thick, cratonic Baltica lithosphere in southern Sweden from

The threat of silent earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Cervelli, Peter

2004-01-01

Not all earthquakes shake the ground. The so-called silent types are forcing scientists to rethink their understanding of the way quake-prone faults behave. In rare instances, silent earthquakes that occur along the flakes of seaside volcanoes may cascade into monstrous landslides that crash into the sea and trigger towering tsunamis. Silent earthquakes that take place within fault zones created by one tectonic plate diving under another may increase the chance of ground-shaking shocks. In other locations, however, silent slip may decrease the likelihood of destructive quakes, because they release stress along faults that might otherwise seem ready to snap.

Nucleation speed limit on remote fluid induced earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Parsons, Thomas E.; Akinci, Aybige; Malignini, Luca

2017-01-01

Earthquakes triggered by other remote seismic events are explained as a response to long-traveling seismic waves that temporarily stress the crust. However, delays of hours or days after seismic waves pass through are reported by several studies, which are difficult to reconcile with the transient stresses imparted by seismic waves. We show that these delays are proportional to magnitude and that nucleation times are best fit to a fluid diffusion process if the governing rupture process involves unlocking a magnitude-dependent critical nucleation zone. It is well established that distant earthquakes can strongly affect the pressure and distribution of crustal pore fluids. Earth’s crust contains hydraulically isolated, pressurized compartments in which fluids are contained within low-permeability walls. We know that strong shaking induced by seismic waves from large earthquakes can change the permeability of rocks. Thus, the boundary of a pressurized compartment may see its permeability rise. Previously confined, overpressurized pore fluids may then diffuse away, infiltrate faults, decrease their strength, and induce earthquakes. Magnitude-dependent delays and critical nucleation zone conclusions can also be applied to human-induced earthquakes.

Probable Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes for the Cascadia Subduction

Science.gov (United States)

Rong, Y.; Jackson, D. D.; Magistrale, H.; Goldfinger, C.

2013-12-01

The concept of maximum earthquake magnitude (mx) is widely used in seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, absolute mx lacks a precise definition and cannot be determined from a finite earthquake history. The surprising magnitudes of the 2004 Sumatra and the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes showed that most methods for estimating mx underestimate the true maximum if it exists. Thus, we introduced the alternate concept of mp(T), probable maximum magnitude within a time interval T. The mp(T) can be solved using theoretical magnitude-frequency distributions such as Tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) distribution. The two TGR parameters, β-value (which equals 2/3 b-value in the GR distribution) and corner magnitude (mc), can be obtained by applying maximum likelihood method to earthquake catalogs with additional constraint from tectonic moment rate. Here, we integrate the paleoseismic data in the Cascadia subduction zone to estimate mp. The Cascadia subduction zone has been seismically quiescent since at least 1900. Fortunately, turbidite studies have unearthed a 10,000 year record of great earthquakes along the subduction zone. We thoroughly investigate the earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution of the region by combining instrumental and paleoseismic data, and using the tectonic moment rate information. To use the paleoseismic data, we first estimate event magnitudes, which we achieve by using the time interval between events, rupture extent of the events, and turbidite thickness. We estimate three sets of TGR parameters: for the first two sets, we consider a geographically large Cascadia region that includes the subduction zone, and the Explorer, Juan de Fuca, and Gorda plates; for the third set, we consider a narrow geographic region straddling the subduction zone. In the first set, the β-value is derived using the GCMT catalog. In the second and third sets, the β-value is derived using both the GCMT and paleoseismic data. Next, we calculate the corresponding mc

Contrastive research of ionospheric precursor anomalies between Calbuco volcanic eruption on April 23 and Nepal earthquake on April 25, 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wang; Guo, Jinyun; Yue, Jianping; Yang, Yang; Li, Zhen; Lu, Deikai

2016-05-01

On April 23, 2015, the VEI4 (volcanic explosive index) Calbuco volcano abruptly erupted in Chile and the Mw7.9 Nepal earthquake occurred on April 25. In order to investigate the similarities and differences between total electron content (TEC) anomalies preceding these two types of geophysical activities, the TEC time series over preparation zones before the volcanic eruption and earthquake extracted from global ionosphere map were analyzed. We used sunspot numbers (SSN), Bz, Dst, and Kp indices to represent the solar-terrestrial environment and eliminate the effects of solar and geomagnetic activities on ionosphere by the sliding interquartile range method with the 27-day window. The results indicate that TEC-negative and -positive anomalies appeared in the 14th and 6th day before the eruption, respectively. The anomalies lasted about 4-6 h with a magnitude of 15-20 TECU. The TEC anomalies were also observed on the 14th and 6th day before the Nepal earthquake with a duration of 6-8 h, and the absolute magnitude of TEC anomalies was within 12-20 TECU. These findings indicate that the magnitude of TEC anomalies preceding volcanic eruption was larger, and the duration of TEC anomalies before the earthquake was longer, which may be associated with their particular physical mechanisms. The TEC anomalies before the Nepal earthquake in the Eastern hemisphere occurred in the afternoon local time, but those before the eruption were observed in the night local time. Peak regions of TEC anomalies did not coincide with the epicenters of geophysical activities, and the TEC anomalies also appeared in the magnetic conjugated region. Both the TEC anomalies in the preparation zone and conjugated region were distributed near the boundaries of equatorial anomaly zone and moved along the boundaries. In the moving process, sometimes the extent or magnitude of TEC anomalies in the conjugated region was larger than that in the preparation zone. Many more GPS stations and receivers

A Decade of Giant Earthquakes - What does it mean?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wallace, Terry C. Jr. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2012-07-16

On December 26, 2004 the largest earthquake since 1964 occurred near Ache, Indonesia. The magnitude 9.2 earthquake and subsequent tsunami killed a quarter of million people; it also marked the being of a period of extraordinary seismicity. Since the Ache earthquake there have been 16 magnitude 8 earthquakes globally, including 2 this last April. For the 100 years previous to 2004 there was an average of 1 magnitude 8 earthquake every 2.2 years; since 2004 there has been 2 per year. Since magnitude 8 earthquakes dominate global seismic energy release, this period of seismicity has seismologist rethinking what they understand about plate tectonics and the connectivity between giant earthquakes. This talk will explore this remarkable period of time and its possible implications.

Tectonic Divisions Based on Gravity Data and Earthquake Distribution Characteristics in the North South Seismic Belt, China

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, T.; Zhang, J.; Jiang, W.

2017-12-01

The North South Seismic Belt is located in the middle of China, and this seismic belt can be divided into 12 tectonic zones, including the South West Yunnan (I), the Sichuan Yunnan (II), the Qiang Tang (III), the Bayan Har (IV), the East Kunlun Qaidam (V), the Qi Lian Mountain (VI), the Tarim(VII), the East Alashan (VIII), the East Sichuan (IX), the Ordos(X), the Middle Yangtze River (XI) and the Edge of Qinghai Tibet Block (XII) zone. Based on the Bouguer Gravity data calculated from the EGM2008 model, the Euler deconvolution was used to obtain the edge of tectonic zone to amend the traditional tectonic divisions. In every tectonic zone and the whole research area, the logarithm of the total energy of seismic was calculated. The Time Series Analysis (TSA) for all tectonic zones and the whole area were progressed in R, and 12 equal divisions were made (A1-3, B1-3, C1-3, D1-3) by latitude and longitude as a control group. A simple linear trend fitting of time was used, and the QQ figure was used to show the residual distribution features. Among the zones according to Gravity anomalies, I, II and XII show similar statistical characteristic, with no earthquake free year (on which year there was no earthquake in the zone), and it shows that the more seismic activity area is more similar in statistical characteristic as the large area, no matter how large the zone is or how many earthquakes are in the zone. Zone IV, V, IX, III, VII and VIII show one or several seismic free year during 1970s (IV, V and IX) and 1980s (III, VII and VIII), which may implicate the earthquake activity were low decades ago or the earthquake catalogue were not complete in these zones, or both. Zone VI, X and XI show many earthquake free years even in this decade, which means in these zones the earthquake activity were very low even if the catalogue were not complete. In the control group, the earthquake free year zone appeared random and independent of the seismic density, and in all equal

The 2009 Samoa-Tonga great earthquake triggered doublet

Science.gov (United States)

Lay, T.; Ammon, C.J.; Kanamori, H.; Rivera, L.; Koper, K.D.; Hutko, Alexander R.

2010-01-01

Great earthquakes (having seismic magnitudes of at least 8) usually involve abrupt sliding of rock masses at a boundary between tectonic plates. Such interplate ruptures produce dynamic and static stress changes that can activate nearby intraplate aftershocks, as is commonly observed in the trench-slope region seaward of a great subduction zone thrust event1-4. The earthquake sequence addressed here involves a rare instance in which a great trench-slope intraplate earthquake triggered extensive interplate faulting, reversing the typical pattern and broadly expanding the seismic and tsunami hazard. On 29 September 2009, within two minutes of the initiation of a normal faulting event with moment magnitude 8.1 in the outer trench-slope at the northern end of the Tonga subduction zone, two major interplate underthrusting subevents (both with moment magnitude 7.8), with total moment equal to a second great earthquake of moment magnitude 8.0, ruptured the nearby subduction zone megathrust. The collective faulting produced tsunami waves with localized regions of about 12metres run-up that claimed 192 lives in Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga. Overlap of the seismic signals obscured the fact that distinct faults separated by more than 50km had ruptured with different geometries, with the triggered thrust faulting only being revealed by detailed seismic wave analyses. Extensive interplate and intraplate aftershock activity was activated over a large region of the northern Tonga subduction zone. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Geological and historical evidence of irregular recurrent earthquakes in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Satake, Kenji

2015-10-28

Great (M∼8) earthquakes repeatedly occur along the subduction zones around Japan and cause fault slip of a few to several metres releasing strains accumulated from decades to centuries of plate motions. Assuming a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model that similar earthquakes repeat at regular intervals, probabilities of future earthquake occurrence have been calculated by a government committee. However, recent studies on past earthquakes including geological traces from giant (M∼9) earthquakes indicate a variety of size and recurrence interval of interplate earthquakes. Along the Kuril Trench off Hokkaido, limited historical records indicate that average recurrence interval of great earthquakes is approximately 100 years, but the tsunami deposits show that giant earthquakes occurred at a much longer interval of approximately 400 years. Along the Japan Trench off northern Honshu, recurrence of giant earthquakes similar to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake with an interval of approximately 600 years is inferred from historical records and tsunami deposits. Along the Sagami Trough near Tokyo, two types of Kanto earthquakes with recurrence interval of a few hundred years and a few thousand years had been recognized, but studies show that the recent three Kanto earthquakes had different source extents. Along the Nankai Trough off western Japan, recurrence of great earthquakes with an interval of approximately 100 years has been identified from historical literature, but tsunami deposits indicate that the sizes of the recurrent earthquakes are variable. Such variability makes it difficult to apply a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model for the long-term forecast, and several attempts such as use of geological data for the evaluation of future earthquake probabilities or the estimation of maximum earthquake size in each subduction zone are being conducted by government committees. © 2015 The Author(s).

Failures and suggestions in Earthquake forecasting and prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Sacks, S. I.

2013-12-01

Seismologists have had poor success in earthquake prediction. However, wide ranging observations from earlier great earthquakes show that precursory data can exist. In particular, two aspects seem promising. In agreement with simple physical modeling, b-values decrease in highly loaded fault zones for years before failure. Potentially more usefully, in high stress regions, breakdown of dilatant patches leading to failure can yield expelled water-related observations. The volume increase (dilatancy) caused by high shear stresses decreases the pore pressure. Eventually, water flows back in restoring the pore pressure, promoting failure and expelling the extra water. Of course, in a generally stressed region there may be many small patches that fail, such as observed before the 1975 Haicheng earthquake. Only a few days before the major event will most of the dilatancy breakdown occur in the fault zone itself such as for the Tangshan, 1976 destructive event. Observations of 'water release' effects have been observed before the 1923 great Kanto earthquake, the 1984 Yamasaki event, the 1975 Haicheng and the 1976 Tangshan earthquakes and also the 1995 Kobe earthquake. While there are obvious difficulties in water release observations, not least because there is currently no observational network anywhere, historical data does suggest some promise if we broaden our approach to this difficult subject.

What is the earthquake fracture energy?

Science.gov (United States)

Di Toro, G.; Nielsen, S. B.; Passelegue, F. X.; Spagnuolo, E.; Bistacchi, A.; Fondriest, M.; Murphy, S.; Aretusini, S.; Demurtas, M.

2016-12-01

The energy budget of an earthquake is one of the main open questions in earthquake physics. During seismic rupture propagation, the elastic strain energy stored in the rock volume that bounds the fault is converted into (1) gravitational work (relative movement of the wall rocks bounding the fault), (2) in- and off-fault damage of the fault zone rocks (due to rupture propagation and frictional sliding), (3) frictional heating and, of course, (4) seismic radiated energy. The difficulty in the budget determination arises from the measurement of some parameters (e.g., the temperature increase in the slipping zone which constraints the frictional heat), from the not well constrained size of the energy sinks (e.g., how large is the rock volume involved in off-fault damage?) and from the continuous exchange of energy from different sinks (for instance, fragmentation and grain size reduction may result from both the passage of the rupture front and frictional heating). Field geology studies, microstructural investigations, experiments and modelling may yield some hints. Here we discuss (1) the discrepancies arising from the comparison of the fracture energy measured in experiments reproducing seismic slip with the one estimated from seismic inversion for natural earthquakes and (2) the off-fault damage induced by the diffusion of frictional heat during simulated seismic slip in the laboratory. Our analysis suggests, for instance, that the so called earthquake fracture energy (1) is mainly frictional heat for small slips and (2), with increasing slip, is controlled by the geometrical complexity and other plastic processes occurring in the damage zone. As a consequence, because faults are rapidly and efficiently lubricated upon fast slip initiation, the dominant dissipation mechanism in large earthquakes may not be friction but be the off-fault damage due to fault segmentation and stress concentrations in a growing region around the fracture tip.

Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Boucouvalas, A. C.; Gkasios, M.; Tselikas, N. T.; Drakatos, G.

2015-06-01

The FDL method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. In order to test improvement of the method we used all +8R earthquakes recorded since 1900, (86 earthquakes from USGS data). We have developed the FDL numbers for each of those seeds, and examined the earthquake hit rates (for a window of 3, i.e. +-1 day of target date) and for <6.5R. The successes are counted for each one of the 86 earthquake seeds and we compare the MFDL method with the FDL method. In every case we find improvement when the starting seed date is on the planetary trigger date prior to the earthquake. We observe no improvement only when a planetary trigger coincided with the earthquake date and in this case the FDL method coincides with the MFDL. Based on the MDFL method we present the prediction method capable of predicting global events or localized earthquakes and we will discuss the accuracy of the method in as far as the prediction and location parts of the method. We show example calendar style predictions for global events as well as for the Greek region using

Crustal stress evolution of last 700 years in North China and earthquake occurrences

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Y.; Shen, Z.; Gan, W.; Li, T.; Zeng, Y.

2004-12-01

We simulate the evolution process of cumulative Coulomb failure stress change (Δ CFS) in North China since 1303, manifested by secular tectonic stress loading and occurrence of large earthquakes. Secular tectonic stress loading is averaged from crustal strain rates derived from GPS. Fault rupture parameters of historical earthquakes are estimated as follows: the earthquake rupture length and the amount of slip are derived based on their statistical relationships with the earthquake intensity distribution and magnitude, calibrated using parameters of instrumental measured contemporary earthquakes. The earthquake rake angle is derived based on geologically determined fault setting parameters and seismically estimated orientation of regional tectonic stresses. Assuming a layered visco-elastic medium, we calculate stress evolution resulted from secular tectonic loading and coseismic and postseismic deformation. 49 M¡Y6.5 earthquakes occurred in North China since 1303. Statistics shows that 39 out of the 48 subsequent events were triggered by positive Δ CFS, yielding a triggering rate of 81.3%. The triggering rate for M¡Y5 earthquakes after the 1976 Tangshan earthquake is 82.1%. The triggering rate is up to 90% if corrections are made for some aftershocks which were wrongly identified as occurred in stress shadow zones because of errors in parameter estimates of historical earthquakes. Our study shows very high correlation between positive Δ CFS and earthquake occurrences. Relatively high Δ CFS in North China at present time is concentrated around the Bohai Sea, the west segment of the Northern Qinling fault, western end of the Zhangjiakou-Bohai seismic zone, and the Taiyuan basin in Shanxi rift zone, suggesting relatively higher earthquake potential in these areas.

Latin American contributions to the GEM’s Earthquake Consequences Database

OpenAIRE

Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario; Ordaz Schroeder, Mario Gustavo; Salgado Gálvez, Mario Andrés; Carreño Tibaduiza, Martha Liliana; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro

2016-01-01

One of the projects of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) was to develop a global earthquake consequences database (GEMECD) which served both to be an open and public repository of damages and losses on different types of elements at global level and also as a benchmark for the development of vulnerability models that could capture specific characteristics of the affected countries. The online earthquakes consequences database has information on 71 events where 14 correspond to events that occ...

Earthquake geology of the Bulnay Fault (Mongolia)

Science.gov (United States)

Rizza, Magali; Ritz, Jean-Franciois; Prentice, Carol S.; Vassallo, Ricardo; Braucher, Regis; Larroque, Christophe; Arzhannikova, A.; Arzhanikov, S.; Mahan, Shannon; Massault, M.; Michelot, J-L.; Todbileg, M.

2015-01-01

The Bulnay earthquake of July 23, 1905 (Mw 8.3-8.5), in north-central Mongolia, is one of the world's largest recorded intracontinental earthquakes and one of four great earthquakes that occurred in the region during the 20th century. The 375-km-long surface rupture of the left-lateral, strike-slip, N095°E trending Bulnay Fault associated with this earthquake is remarkable for its pronounced expression across the landscape and for the size of features produced by previous earthquakes. Our field observations suggest that in many areas the width and geometry of the rupture zone is the result of repeated earthquakes; however, in those areas where it is possible to determine that the geomorphic features are the result of the 1905 surface rupture alone, the size of the features produced by this single earthquake are singular in comparison to most other historical strike-slip surface ruptures worldwide. Along the 80 km stretch, between 97.18°E and 98.33°E, the fault zone is characterized by several meters width and the mean left-lateral 1905 offset is 8.9 ± 0.6 m with two measured cumulative offsets that are twice the 1905 slip. These observations suggest that the displacement produced during the penultimate event was similar to the 1905 slip. Morphotectonic analyses carried out at three sites along the eastern part of the Bulnay fault, allow us to estimate a mean horizontal slip rate of 3.1 ± 1.7 mm/yr over the Late Pleistocene-Holocene period. In parallel, paleoseismological investigations show evidence for two earthquakes prior to the 1905 event with recurrence intervals of ~2700-4000 years.

Nucleation speed limit on remote fluid-induced earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Parsons, Tom; Malagnini, Luca; Akinci, Aybige

2017-01-01

Earthquakes triggered by other remote seismic events are explained as a response to long-traveling seismic waves that temporarily stress the crust. However, delays of hours or days after seismic waves pass through are reported by several studies, which are difficult to reconcile with the transient stresses imparted by seismic waves. We show that these delays are proportional to magnitude and that nucleation times are best fit to a fluid diffusion process if the governing rupture process involves unlocking a magnitude-dependent critical nucleation zone. It is well established that distant earthquakes can strongly affect the pressure and distribution of crustal pore fluids. Earth’s crust contains hydraulically isolated, pressurized compartments in which fluids are contained within low-permeability walls. We know that strong shaking induced by seismic waves from large earthquakes can change the permeability of rocks. Thus, the boundary of a pressurized compartment may see its permeability rise. Previously confined, overpressurized pore fluids may then diffuse away, infiltrate faults, decrease their strength, and induce earthquakes. Magnitude-dependent delays and critical nucleation zone conclusions can also be applied to human-induced earthquakes. PMID:28845448

Advancing Understanding of Earthquakes by Drilling an Eroding Convergent Margin

Science.gov (United States)

von Huene, R.; Vannucchi, P.; Ranero, C. R.

2010-12-01

A program of IODP with great societal relevance is sampling and instrumenting the seismogenic zone. The zone generates great earthquakes that trigger tsunamis, and submarine slides thereby endangering coastal communities containing over sixty percent of the earth’s population. To asses and mitigate this endangerment it is urgent to advance understanding of fault dynamics that allows more timely anticipation of hazardous seismicity. Seismogenesis on accreting and eroding convergent plate boundaries apparently differ because of dissimilar materials along the interplate fault. As the history of instrumentally recorded earthquakes expands the difference becomes clearer. The more homogeneous clay, silt and sand subducted at accreting margins is associated with great earthquakes (M 9) whereas the fragmented upper plate rock that can dominate subducted material along an eroding margin plate interface is associated with many tsunamigenic earthquakes (Bilek, 2010). Few areas have been identified where the seismogenic zone can be reached with scientific drilling. In IODP accreting margins are studied on the NanTroSeize drill transect off Japan where the ultimate drilling of the seismogenic interface may occur by the end of IODP. The eroding Costa Rica margin will be studied in CRISP where a drill program will begin in 2011. The Costa Rican geophysical site survey will be complete with acquisition and processing of 3D seismic data in 2011 but the entire drilling will not be accomplished in IODP. It is appropriate that the accreting margin study be accomplished soon considering the indications of a pending great earthquake that will affect a country that has devoted enormous resources to IODP. However, understanding the erosional end-member is scientifically as important to an understanding of fault mechanics. Transoceanic tsunamis affect the entire Pacific rim where most subduction zones are eroding margins. The Costa Rican subduction zone is less complex operationally and

The 2012 Strike-slip Earthquake Sequence in Black Sea and its Link to the Caucasus Collision Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Tseng, T. L.; Hsu, C. H.; Legendre, C. P.; Jian, P. R.; Huang, B. S.; Karakhanian, A.; Chen, C. W.

2016-12-01

The Black Sea formed as a back-arc basin in Late Cretaceous to Paleogene with lots of extensional features. However, the Black Sea is now tectonically stable and absent of notable earthquakes except for the coastal region. In this study we invert regional waveforms of a new seismic array to constrain the focal mechanisms and depths of the 2012/12/23 earthquake sequence occurred in northeastern Black Sea basin that can provide unique estimates on the stress field in the region. The results show that the focal mechanisms for the main shock and 5 larger aftershocks are all strike-slip faulting and resembling with each other. The main rupture fall along the vertical dipping, NW-SE trending sinistral fault indicated by the lineation of most aftershocks. The fault strike and aftershock distribution are both consistent with the Shatsky Ridge, which is continental in nature but large normal faults was created by previous subsidence. The occurrence of 2012 earthquakes can be re-activated, as strike-slip, on one of the pre-existing normal fault cutting at depth nearly 20-30 km in the extended crust. Some of the aftershocks, including a larger one occurred 5 days later, are distributed toward NE direction 20 km away from main fault zone. Those events might be triggered by the main shock along a conjugate fault, which is surprisingly at the extension of proposed transform fault perpendicular to the rift axis of eastern Black Sea Basin. The focal mechanisms also indicate that the maximum compression in northeast Black Sea is at E-W direction, completely different from the N-S compression in the Caucasus and East Turkey controlled by Arabia-Eurasia collision. The origin of E-W maximum compression is probably the same as the secondary stress inferred from earthquakes in Racha region of the Greater Caucasus.

Low cost earthquake resistant ferrocement small house

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saleem, M.A.; Ashraf, M.; Ashraf, M.

2008-01-01

The greatest humanitarian challenge faced even today after one year of Kashmir Hazara earthquake is that of providing shelter. Currently on the globe one in seven people live in a slum or refugee camp. The earthquake of October 2005 resulted in a great loss of life and property. This research work is mainly focused on developing a design of small size, low cost and earthquake resistant house. Ferrocement panels are recommended as the main structural elements with lightweight truss roofing system. Earthquake resistance is ensured by analyzing the structure on ETABS for a seismic activity of zone 4. The behavior of structure is found satisfactory under the earthquake loading. An estimate of cost is also presented which shows that it is an economical solution. (author)

The 2006-2007 Kuril Islands great earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Lay, T.; Kanamori, H.; Ammon, C.J.; Hutko, Alexander R.; Furlong, K.; Rivera, L.

2009-01-01

The southwestern half of a ???500 km long seismic gap in the central Kuril Island arc subduction zone experienced two great earthquakes with extensive preshock and aftershock sequences in late 2006 to early 2007. The nature of seismic coupling in the gap had been uncertain due to the limited historical record of prior large events and the presence of distinctive upper plate, trench and outer rise structures relative to adjacent regions along the arc that have experienced repeated great interplate earthquakes in the last few centuries. The intraplate region seaward of the seismic gap had several shallow compressional events during the preceding decades (notably an MS 7.2 event on 16 March 1963), leading to speculation that the interplate fault was seismically coupled. This issue was partly resolved by failure of the shallow portion of the interplate megathrust in an MW = 8.3 thrust event on 15 November 2006. This event ruptured ???250 km along the seismic gap, just northeast of the great 1963 Kuril Island (Mw = 8.5) earthquake rupture zone. Within minutes of the thrust event, intense earthquake activity commenced beneath the outer wall of the trench seaward of the interplate rupture, with the larger events having normal-faulting mechanisms. An unusual double band of interplate and intraplate aftershocks developed. On 13 January 2007, an MW = 8.1 extensional earthquake ruptured within the Pacific plate beneath the seaward edge of the Kuril trench. This event is the third largest normal-faulting earthquake seaward of a subduction zone on record, and its rupture zone extended to at least 33 km depth and paralleled most of the length of the 2006 rupture. The 13 January 2007 event produced stronger shaking in Japan than the larger thrust event, as a consequence of higher short-period energy radiation from the source. The great event aftershock sequences were dominated by the expected faulting geometries; thrust faulting for the 2006 rupture zone, and normal faulting for

Structural factors controlling inter-plate coupling and earthquake rupture process

Science.gov (United States)

Kodaira, S.

2007-05-01

Recent availability of a large number of ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs), a large volume of air-gun array and a long streamer cable for academics provide several new findings of lithospheric scale structures in subduction seismogenic zones. JAMSTEC has acquired long-offset seismic data using a super-densely deploy OBS (i.e. 1 - 5 km spacing OBSs along 100 - 500 km long profiles) in the Nankai seismogeinc zone, SW. Japan, since 1999. Long-offset multichannel seismic (MCS) data by a two-ship experiment, as well as conventional 2D MCS data, have been also acquired at a part of the profiles. Some of those profiles have been designed as combined onshore - offshore profiles for imaging a land-ocean transition zone. One of the most striking findings is an image of several scales of subducted seamounts/ridges in the Nankai trough seismogenic zone. We detected the subducted seamount/ridges, which are 50 - 100 km wide, distributing from near trough axis to ~ 40 km deep beneath the Japanese island. From a point of seismogenic process, an important aspect is that those structures are strongly correlated with slip zones of magnitude 8-class earthquakes, i.e.; subducted seamounts/ridge control the rupture propagations. Moreover, the most recent seismic study crossing the segmentation boundary between M=8 class earthquakes detected a high seismic velocity body forming a strongly coupled patch at the segmentation boundary. The numerical simulation incorporating all those structures explained the historic rupture patterns, and shows the occurrence of a giant earthquake along the entire Nankai trough, a distance of over 600 km long (Mw=8.7). The growth processes of a rupture revealed from the simulation are; 1) prior to the giant earthquake, a small slow event (or earthquake) occurs near the segmentation boundary, 2) this accelerates a very slow slip (slower than the plate convergent rate), at the strong patch, which reduces a degree of coupling, 3) then a rupture easily propagates

Fluid flows due to earthquakes with reference to Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davies, J.B.

1993-01-01

Yucca Mountain geohydrology is dominated by a deep water table in volcanic tuffa beds which are cut by numerous faults. Certain zones in these tuffas and most of the fault apertures are filled with a fine-grained calcitic cement. Earthquakes have occured in this region with the most recent being of magnitude 5.6 and at a distance of about 20 km. Earthquakes in western U.S.A. have been observed to cause fluid flows through and out of the crust of the Earth. These flows are concentrated along the faults with normal faulting producing the largest flows. An earthquake produces rapid pressure changes at and below the ground surface, thereby forcing flows of gas, water, slurries and dissolved salts. In order to examine the properties of flows produced by earthquakes, we simulate the phenomena using computer-based modeling. We investigate the effects of adults and high permeability zones on the pattern of flows induced by the earthquake. We demonstrate that faults act as conduits to the surface and that the higher the permeability of a zone, the more the flows will concentrate there. Numerical estimates of flow rates from these simulations compare favorably with data from observed flows due to earthquakes. Simple volumetric arguments demonstrate the ease with which fluids from the deep water table can reach the surface along fault conduits

The typical seismic behavior in the vicinity of a large earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Rodkin, M. V.; Tikhonov, I. N.

2016-10-01

The Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog (GCMT) was used to construct the spatio-temporal generalized vicinity of a large earthquake (GVLE) and to investigate the behavior of seismicity in GVLE. The vicinity is made of earthquakes falling into the zone of influence of a large number (100, 300, or 1000) of largest earthquakes. The GVLE construction aims at enlarging the available statistics, diminishing a strong random component, and revealing typical features of pre- and post-shock seismic activity in more detail. As a result of the GVLE construction, the character of fore- and aftershock cascades was examined in more detail than was possible without of the use of the GVLE approach. As well, several anomalies in the behavior exhibited by a variety of earthquake parameters were identified. The amplitudes of all these anomalies increase with the approaching time of the generalized large earthquake (GLE) as the logarithm of the time interval from the GLE occurrence. Most of the discussed anomalies agree with common features well expected in the evolution of instability. In addition to these common type precursors, one earthquake-specific precursor was found. The decrease in mean earthquake depth presumably occurring in a smaller GVLE probably provides evidence of a deep fluid being involved in the process. The typical features in the evolution of shear instability as revealed in GVLE agree with results obtained in laboratory studies of acoustic emission (AE). The majority of the anomalies in earthquake parameters appear to have a secondary character, largely connected with an increase in mean magnitude and decreasing fraction of moderate size events (mw5.0-6.0) in the immediate GLE vicinity. This deficit of moderate size events could hardly be caused entirely by their incomplete reporting and can presumably reflect some features in the evolution of seismic instability.

The seismic cycles of large Romanian earthquake: The physical foundation, and the next large earthquake in Vrancea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purcaru, G.

2002-01-01

The occurrence patterns of large/great earthquakes at subduction zone interface and in-slab are complex in the space-time dynamics, and make even long-term forecasts very difficult. For some favourable cases where a predictive (empirical) law was found successful predictions were possible (eg. Aleutians, Kuriles, etc). For the large Romanian events (M > 6.7), occurring in the Vrancea seismic slab below 60 km, Purcaru (1974) first found the law of the occurrence time and magnitude: the law of 'quasicycles' and 'supercycles', for large and largest events (M > 7.25), respectively. The quantitative model of Purcaru with these seismic cycles has three time-bands (periods of large earthquakes)/century, discovered using the earthquake history (1100-1973) (however incomplete) of large Vrancea earthquakes for which M was initially estimated (Purcaru, 1974, 1979). Our long-term prediction model is essentially quasideterministic, it predicts uniquely the time and magnitude; since is not strict deterministic the forecasting is interval valued. It predicted the next large earthquake in 1980 in the 3rd time-band (1970-1990), and which occurred in 1977 (M7.1, M w 7.5). The prediction was successful, in long-term sense. We discuss the unpredicted events in 1986 and 1990. Since the laws are phenomenological, we give their physical foundation based on the large scale of rupture zone (RZ) and subscale of the rupture process (RP). First results show that: (1) the 1940 event (h=122 km) ruptured the lower part of the oceanic slab entirely along strike, and down dip, and similarly for 1977 but its upper part, (2) the RZ of 1977 and 1990 events overlap and the first asperity of 1977 event was rebroken in 1990. This shows the size of the events strongly depends on RZ, asperity size/strength and, thus on the failure stress level (FSL), but not on depth, (3) when FSL of high strength (HS) larger zones is critical largest events (eg. 1802, 1940) occur, thus explaining the supercyles (the 1940

Crustal structure and fault geometry of the 2010 Haiti earthquake from temporary seismometer deployments

Science.gov (United States)

Douilly, Roby; Haase, Jennifer S.; Ellsworth, William L.; Bouin, Marie‐Paule; Calais, Eric; Symithe, Steeve J.; Armbruster, John G.; Mercier de Lépinay, Bernard; Deschamps, Anne; Mildor, Saint‐Louis; Meremonte, Mark E.; Hough, Susan E.

2013-01-01

Haiti has been the locus of a number of large and damaging historical earthquakes. The recent 12 January 2010 Mw 7.0 earthquake affected cities that were largely unprepared, which resulted in tremendous losses. It was initially assumed that the earthquake ruptured the Enriquillo Plantain Garden fault (EPGF), a major active structure in southern Haiti, known from geodetic measurements and its geomorphic expression to be capable of producing M 7 or larger earthquakes. Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data, however, showed that the event ruptured a previously unmapped fault, the Léogâne fault, a north‐dipping oblique transpressional fault located immediately north of the EPGF. Following the earthquake, several groups installed temporary seismic stations to record aftershocks, including ocean‐bottom seismometers on either side of the EPGF. We use data from the complete set of stations deployed after the event, on land and offshore, to relocate all aftershocks from 10 February to 24 June 2010, determine a 1D regional crustal velocity model, and calculate focal mechanisms. The aftershock locations from the combined dataset clearly delineate the Léogâne fault, with a geometry close to that inferred from geodetic data. Its strike and dip closely agree with the global centroid moment tensor solution of the mainshock but with a steeper dip than inferred from previous finite fault inversions. The aftershocks also delineate a structure with shallower southward dip offshore and to the west of the rupture zone, which could indicate triggered seismicity on the offshore Trois Baies reverse fault. We use first‐motion focal mechanisms to clarify the relationship of the fault geometry to the triggered aftershocks.

Data base and seismicity studies for Fagaras, Romania crustal earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moldovan, I.-A.; Enescu, B. D.; Pantea, A.; Constantin, A.; Bazacliu, O.; Malita, Z.; Moldoveanu, T.

2002-01-01

Besides the major impact of the Vrancea seismic region, one of the most important intermediate earthquake sources of Europe, the Romanian crustal earthquake sources, from Fagaras, Banat, Crisana, Bucovina or Dobrogea regions, have to be taken into consideration for seismicity studies or seismic hazard assessment. To determine the characteristics of the seismicity for Fagaras seismogenic region, a revised and updated catalogue of the Romanian earthquakes, recently compiled by Oncescu et al. (1999) is used. The catalogue contains 471 tectonic earthquakes and 338 induced earthquakes and is homogenous starting with 1471 for I>VIII and for I>VII starting with 1801. The catalogue is complete for magnitudes larger than 3 starting with 1982. In the studied zone only normal earthquakes occur, related to intracrustal fractures situated from 5 to 30 km depth. Most of them are of low energy, but once in a century a large destructive event occurs with epicentral intensity larger than VIII. The maximum expected magnitude is M GR = 6.5 and the epicenter distribution outlines significant clustering in the zones and on the lines mentioned in the tectonic studies. Taking into account the date of the last major earthquake (1916) and the return periods of severe damaging shocks of over 85 years it is to be expected very soon a large shock in the area. That's why a seismicity and hazard study for this zone is necessary. In the paper there are studied the b parameter variation (the mean value is 0.69), the activity value, the return periods, and seismicity maps and different histograms are plotted. At the same time there are excluded from the catalogue the explosions due to Campulung quarry. Because the catalogue contains the aftershocks for the 1916 earthquake for the seismicity studies we have excluded these shocks. (authors)

Activity of Small Repeating Earthquakes along Izu-Bonin and Ryukyu Trenches

Science.gov (United States)

Hibino, K.; Matsuzawa, T.; Uchida, N.; Nakamura, W.; Matsushima, T.

2014-12-01

There are several subduction systems near the Japanese islands. The 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-oki megathrust earthquake occurred at the NE Japan (Tohoku) subduction zone. We have revealed a complementary relation between the slip areas for huge earthquakes and small repeating earthquakes (REs) in Tohoku. Investigations of REs in these subduction zones and the comparison with Tohoku area are important for revealing generation mechanism of megathrust earthquakes. Our target areas are Izu-Bonin and Ryukyu subduction zones, which appear to generate no large interplate earthquake. To investigate coupling of plate boundary in these regions, we estimated spatial distribution of slip rate by using REs. We use seismograms from the High Sensitivity Seismograph Network (Hi-net), Full Range Seismograph Network of Japan (F-net), and permanent seismic stations of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Tohoku University, University of Tokyo, and Kagoshima University from 8 May 2003 (Izu-Bonin) and 14 July 2005 (Ryukyu) to 31 December 2012 to detect REs along the two trenches, by using similarity of seismograms. We mainly follow the procedure adopted in Uchida and Matsuzawa (2013) that studied REs in Tohoku area to compare our results with the REs in Tohoku. We find that the RE distribution along the Ryukyu trench shows two bands parallel to the trench axis. This feature is similar to the pattern in Tohoku where relatively large earthquakes occur between the bands. Along the Izu-Bonin trench, on the other hand, we find much fewer REs than in Tohoku or Ryukyu subduction zones and only one along-trench RE band, which corresponds to the area where the subducting Pacific plate contacts with the crust of the Philippine Sea plate. We also estimate average slip rate and coupling coefficient by using an empirical relationship between seismic moment and slip for REs (Nadeau and Johnson, 1998) and relative plate motion model. As a result, we find interplate slip rate in the deeper band is higher than

Extension of the energy-to-moment parameter Θ to intermediate and deep earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Saloor, Nooshin; Okal, Emile A.

2018-01-01

We extend to intermediate and deep earthquakes the slowness parameter Θ originally introduced by Newman and Okal (1998). Because of the increasing time lag with depth between the phases P, pP and sP, and of variations in anelastic attenuation parameters t∗ , we define four depth bins featuring slightly different algorithms for the computation of Θ . We apply this methodology to a global dataset of 598 intermediate and deep earthquakes with moments greater than 1025 dyn∗cm. We find a slight increase with depth in average values of Θ (from -4.81 between 80 and 135 km to -4.48 between 450 and 700 km), which however all have intersecting one- σ bands. With widths ranging from 0.26 to 0.31 logarithmic units, these are narrower than their counterpart for a reference dataset of 146 shallow earthquakes (σ = 0.55). Similarly, we find no correlation between values of Θ and focal geometry. These results point to stress conditions within the seismogenic zones inside the Wadati-Benioff slabs more homogeneous than those prevailing at the shallow contacts between tectonic plates.

Low Velocity Zones along the San Jacinto Fault, Southern California, inferred from Local Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Z.; Yang, H.; Peng, Z.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Vernon, F.

2013-12-01

Natural fault zones have regions of brittle damage leading to a low-velocity zone (LVZ) in the immediate vicinity of the main fault interface. The LVZ may amplify ground motion, modify rupture propagation, and impact derivation of earthquke properties. Here we image low-velocity fault zone structures along the San Jacinto Fault (SJF), southern California, using waveforms of local earthquakes that are recorded at several dense arrays across the SJFZ. We use generalized ray theory to compute synthetic travel times to track the direct and FZ-reflected waves bouncing from the FZ boundaries. This method can effectively reduce the trade-off between FZ width and velocity reduction relative to the host rock. Our preliminary results from travel time modeling show the clear signature of LVZs along the SJF, including the segment of the Anza seismic gap. At the southern part near the trifrication area, the LVZ of the Clark Valley branch (array JF) has a width of ~200 m with ~55% reduction in Vp and Vs. This is consistent with what have been suggested from previous studies. In comparison, we find that the velocity reduction relative to the host rock across the Anza seismic gap (array RA) is ~50% for both Vp and Vs, nearly as prominent as that on the southern branches. The width of the LVZ is ~230 m. In addition, the LVZ across the Anza gap appears to locate in the northeast side of the RA array, implying potential preferred propagation direction of past ruptures.

The orientation of disaster donations: differences in the global response to five major earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wei, Jiuchang; Marinova, Dora

2016-07-01

This study analyses the influence of gift giving, geographical location, political regime, and trade openness on disaster donation decisions, using five severe earthquakes that occurred between 2008 and 2012 as case studies. The results show that global disaster donation is not dominated by only philanthropy or trade interests, and that the determinants of donation decisions vary with the scale of the natural disaster and the characteristics of the disaster-affected countries. While gift giving exists in the case of middle-size earthquakes, political regimes play a very important part in the overall donation process. Countries with higher perceived corruption may donate more frequently, but those that are more democratic may be more generous in their donations. Generosity based on geographical proximity to the calamity is significant in the decision-making process for most natural disasters, yet it may have a negative effect on donations in Latin America and the Caribbean. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

Heterogeneous coupling along Makran subduction zone

Science.gov (United States)

Zarifi, Z.; Raeesi, M.

2010-12-01

The Makran subduction zone, located in the southeast of Iran and southern Pakistan, extends for almost 900 km along the Eurasian-Arabian plate boundary. The seismic activities in the eastern and western Makran exhibit very different patterns. The eastern Makran characterized by infrequent large earthquakes and low level of seismicity. The only large instrumentally recorded earthquake in the eastern Makran, the 27 Nov. 1945 (Mw=8.1) earthquake, was followed by tsunami waves with the maximum run-up height of 13 m and disastrous effects in Pakistan, India, Iran and Oman. The western Makran, however, is apparently quiescent without strong evidence on occurrence of large earthquakes in historical times, which makes it difficult to ascertain whether the slab subducts aseismically or experiences large earthquakes separated by long periods exceeding the historical records. We used seismicity and Trench Parallel Free air and Bouguer Anomalies (TPGA and TPBA) to study the variation in coupling in the slab interface. Using a 3D mechanical Finite Element (FE) model, we show how heterogeneous coupling can influence the rate of deformation in the overriding lithosphere and the state of stress in the outer rise, overriding, and subducting plates within the shortest expected cycle of earthquake. We test the results of FE model against the observed focal mechanism of earthquakes and available GPS measurements in Makran subduction zone.

Numerical simulation of multiple-physical fields coupling for thermal anomalies before earthquakes: A case study of the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake in southwest China

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Deng, Z.

2017-12-01

It has become a highly focused issue that thermal anomalies appear before major earthquakes. There are various hypotheses about the mechanism of thermal anomalies. Because of lacking of enough evidences, the mechanism is still require to be further researched. Gestation and occurrence of a major earthquake is related with the interaction of multi-physical fields. The underground fluid surging out the surface is very likely to be the reason for the thermal anomaly. This study tries to answer some question, such as how the geothermal energy transfer to the surface, and how the multiple-physical fields interacted. The 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, is one of the largest evens in the last decade in China mainland. Remote sensing studies indicate that distinguishable thermal anomalies occurred several days before the earthquake. The heat anomaly value is more than 3 times the average in normal time and distributes along the Longmen Shan fault zone. Based on geological and geophysical data, 2D dynamic model of coupled stress, seepage and thermal fields (HTM model) is constructed. Then using the COMSOL multi-physics filed software, this work tries to reveal the generation process and distribution patterns of thermal anomalies prior to thrust-type major earthquakes. The simulation get the results: (1)Before the micro rupture, with the increase of compression, the heat current flows to the fault in the footwall on the whole, while in the hanging wall of the fault, particularly near the ground surface, the heat flow upward. In the fault zone, heat flow upward along the fracture surface, heat flux in the fracture zone is slightly larger than the wall rock;, but the value is all very small. (2)After the occurrence of the micro fracture, the heat flow rapidly collects to the faults. In the fault zones, the heat flow accelerates up along the fracture surfaces, the heat flux increases suddenly, and the vertical heat flux reaches to the maximum. The heat flux in the 3 fracture

Forecasting of future earthquakes in the northeast region of India considering energy released concept

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Zarola, Amit; Sil, Arjun

2018-04-01

This study presents the forecasting of time and magnitude size of the next earthquake in the northeast India, using four probability distribution models (Gamma, Lognormal, Weibull and Log-logistic) considering updated earthquake catalog of magnitude Mw ≥ 6.0 that occurred from year 1737-2015 in the study area. On the basis of past seismicity of the region, two types of conditional probabilities have been estimated using their best fit model and respective model parameters. The first conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (e × 1020 ergs), which is expected to release in the future earthquake, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy (E × 1020 ergs). And the second conditional probability is the probability of seismic energy (a × 1020 ergs/year), which is expected to release per year, exceeding a certain level of seismic energy per year (A × 1020 ergs/year). The logarithm likelihood functions (ln L) were also estimated for all four probability distribution models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model and a lower value shows a worse model. The time of the future earthquake is forecasted by dividing the total seismic energy expected to release in the future earthquake with the total seismic energy expected to release per year. The epicentre of recently occurred 4 January 2016 Manipur earthquake (M 6.7), 13 April 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.9) and the 24 August 2016 Myanmar earthquake (M 6.8) are located in zone Z.12, zone Z.16 and zone Z.15, respectively and that are the identified seismic source zones in the study area which show that the proposed techniques and models yield good forecasting accuracy.

Cyclic migration of weak earthquakes between Lunigiana earthquake of October 10, 1995 and Reggio Emilia earthquake of October 15, 1996 (Northern Italy)

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di Giovambattista, R.; Tyupkin, Yu

The cyclic migration of weak earthquakes (M 2.2) which occurred during the yearprior to the October 15, 1996 (M = 4.9) Reggio Emilia earthquake isdiscussed in this paper. The onset of this migration was associated with theoccurrence of the October 10, 1995 (M = 4.8) Lunigiana earthquakeabout 90 km southwest from the epicenter of the Reggio Emiliaearthquake. At least three series of earthquakes migrating from theepicentral area of the Lunigiana earthquake in the northeast direction wereobserved. The migration of earthquakes of the first series terminated at adistance of about 30 km from the epicenter of the Reggio Emiliaearthquake. The earthquake migration of the other two series halted atabout 10 km from the Reggio Emilia epicenter. The average rate ofearthquake migration was about 200-300 km/year, while the time ofrecurrence of the observed cycles varied from 68 to 178 days. Weakearthquakes migrated along the transversal fault zones and sometimesjumped from one fault to another. A correlation between the migratingearthquakes and tidal variations is analysed. We discuss the hypothesis thatthe analyzed area is in a state of stress approaching the limit of thelong-term durability of crustal rocks and that the observed cyclic migrationis a result of a combination of a more or less regular evolution of tectonicand tidal variations.

Investigation of the relationship between ionospheric foF2 and earthquakes

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Karaboga, Tuba; Canyilmaz, Murat; Ozcan, Osman

2018-04-01

Variations of the ionospheric F2 region critical frequency (foF2) have been investigated statistically before earthquakes during 1980-2008 periods in Japan area. Ionosonde data was taken from Kokubunji station which is in the earthquake preparation zone for all earthquakes. Standard Deviations and Inter-Quartile Range methods are applied to the foF2 data. It is observed that there are anomalous variations in foF2 before earthquakes. These variations can be regarded as ionospheric precursors and may be used for earthquake prediction.

Retrospective stress-forecasting of earthquakes

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Gao, Yuan; Crampin, Stuart

2015-04-01

Observations of changes in azimuthally varying shear-wave splitting (SWS) above swarms of small earthquakes monitor stress-induced changes to the stress-aligned vertical microcracks pervading the upper crust, lower crust, and uppermost ~400km of the mantle. (The microcracks are intergranular films of hydrolysed melt in the mantle.) Earthquakes release stress, and an appropriate amount of stress for the relevant magnitude must accumulate before each event. Iceland is on an extension of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where two transform zones, uniquely run onshore. These onshore transform zones provide semi-continuous swarms of small earthquakes, which are the only place worldwide where SWS can be routinely monitored. Elsewhere SWS must be monitored above temporally-active occasional swarms of small earthquakes, or in infrequent SKS and other teleseismic reflections from the mantle. Observations of changes in SWS time-delays are attributed to stress-induced changes in crack aspect-ratios allowing stress-accumulation and stress-relaxation to be identified. Monitoring SWS in SW Iceland in 1988, stress-accumulation before an impending earthquake was recognised and emails were exchanged between the University of Edinburgh (EU) and the Iceland Meteorological Office (IMO). On 10th November 1988, EU emailed IMO that a M5 earthquake could occur soon on a seismically-active fault plane where seismicity was still continuing following a M5.1 earthquake six-months earlier. Three-days later, IMO emailed EU that a M5 earthquake had just occurred on the specified fault-plane. We suggest this is a successful earthquake stress-forecast, where we refer to the procedure as stress-forecasting earthquakes as opposed to predicting or forecasting to emphasise the different formalism. Lack of funds has prevented us monitoring SWS on Iceland seismograms, however, we have identified similar characteristic behaviour of SWS time-delays above swarms of small earthquakes which have enabled us to

Research on Collection of Earthquake Disaster Information from the Crowd

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Nian, Z.

2017-12-01

In China, the assessment of the earthquake disasters information is mainly based on the inversion of the seismic source mechanism and the pre-calculated population data model, the real information of the earthquake disaster is usually collected through the government departments, the accuracy and the speed need to be improved. And in a massive earthquake like the one in Mexico, the telecommunications infrastructure on ground were damaged , the quake zone was difficult to observe by satellites and aircraft in the bad weather. Only a bit of information was sent out through maritime satellite of other country. Thus, the timely and effective development of disaster relief was seriously affected. Now Chinese communication satellites have been orbiting, people don't only rely on the ground telecom base station to keep communication with the outside world, to open the web page,to land social networking sites, to release information, to transmit images and videoes. This paper will establish an earthquake information collection system which public can participate. Through popular social platform and other information sources, the public can participate in the collection of earthquake information, and supply quake zone information, including photos, video, etc.,especially those information made by unmanned aerial vehicle (uav) after earthqake, the public can use the computer, potable terminals, or mobile text message to participate in the earthquake information collection. In the system, the information will be divided into earthquake zone basic information, earthquake disaster reduction information, earthquake site information, post-disaster reconstruction information etc. and they will been processed and put into database. The quality of data is analyzed by multi-source information, and is controlled by local public opinion on them to supplement the data collected by government departments timely and implement the calibration of simulation results ,which will better guide

Interseismic Coupling-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Scenarios for the Nankai Trough

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Baranes, H.; Woodruff, J. D.; Loveless, J. P.; Hyodo, M.

2018-04-01

Theoretical modeling and investigations of recent subduction zone earthquakes show that geodetic estimates of interseismic coupling and the spatial distribution of coseismic rupture are correlated. However, the utility of contemporary coupling in guiding construction of rupture scenarios has not been evaluated on the world's most hazardous faults. Here we demonstrate methods for scaling coupling to slip to create rupture models for southwestern Japan's Nankai Trough. Results show that coupling-based models produce distributions of ground surface deformation and tsunami inundation that are similar to historical and geologic records of the largest known Nankai earthquake in CE 1707 and to an independent, quasi-dynamic rupture model. Notably, these models and records all support focused subsidence around western Shikoku that makes the region particularly vulnerable to flooding. Results imply that contemporary coupling mirrors the slip distribution of a full-margin, 1707-type rupture, and Global Positioning System measurements of surface motion are connected with the trough's physical characteristics.

The 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake related to a large velocity gradient within the Pacific plate

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Matsubara, Makoto; Obara, Kazushige

2015-04-01

We conduct seismic tomography using arrival time data picked by the high sensitivity seismograph network (Hi-net) operated by National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED). We used earthquakes off the coast outside the seismic network around the source region of the 2011 Tohoku-oki Earthquake with the centroid depth estimated from moment tensor inversion by NIED F-net (broadband seismograph network) as well as earthquakes within the seismic network determined by Hi-net. The target region, 20-48N and 120-148E, covers the Japanese Islands from Hokkaido to Okinawa. A total of manually picked 4,622,346 P-wave and 3,062,846 S-wave arrival times for 100,733 earthquakes recorded at 1,212 stations from October 2000 to August 2009 is available for use in the tomographic method. In the final iteration, we estimate the P-wave slowness at 458,234 nodes and the S-wave slowness at 347,037 nodes. The inversion reduces the root mean square of the P-wave traveltime residual from 0.455 s to 0.187 s and that of the S-wave data from 0.692 s to 0.228 s after eight iterations (Matsubara and Obara, 2011). Centroid depths are determined using a Green's function approach (Okada et al., 2004) such as in NIED F-net. For the events distant from the seismic network, the centroid depth is more reliable than that determined by NIED Hi-net, since there are no stations above the hypocenter. We determine the upper boundary of the Pacific plate based on the velocity structure and earthquake hypocentral distribution. The upper boundary of the low-velocity (low-V) oceanic crust corresponds to the plate boundary where thrust earthquakes are expected to occur. Where we do not observe low-V oceanic crust, we determine the upper boundary of the upper layer of the double seismic zone within high-V Pacific plate. We assume the depth at the Japan Trench as 7 km. We can investigate the velocity structure within the Pacific plate such as 10 km beneath the plate boundary since the

Slip Zone versus Damage Zone Micromechanics, Arima-Takasuki Tectonic Line, Japan

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White, J. C.; Lin, A.

2017-12-01

The Arima-Takasuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) of southern Honshu, Japan is defined by historically active faults and multiple splays producing M7 earthquakes. The damage zone of the ATTL comprises a broad zone of crushed, comminuted and pulverized granite/rhyolite1,2containing cm-scale slip zones and highly comminuted injection veins. In this presentation, prior work on the ATTL fault rocks is extending to include microstructural characterization by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) from recent trenching of the primary slip zone, as well as secondary slip zones. This is necessary to adequately characterize the extremely fine-grained material (typically less than 1mm) in both damage and core zones. Damage zone material exhibits generally random textures3 whereas slip zones are macroscopically foliated, and compositionally layered, notwithstanding a fairly homogeneous protolith. The latter reflects fluid-rock interaction during both coseismic and interseismic periods. The slip zones are microstructurally heterogeneous at all scales, comprising not only cataclasites and phyllosilicate (clay)-rich gouge zones, but Fe/Mn pellets or clasts that are contained within gouge. These structures appear to have rolled and would suggest rapid recrystallization and/or growth. A central question related to earthquake recurrence along existing faults is the nature of the gouge. In both near-surface exposures and ongoing drilling at depth, "plastic" or "viscous" gouge zones comprise ultra-fine-grained clay-siliciclastic particles that would not necessarily respond in a simple frictional manner. Depending on whether the plastic nature of these slip zones develops during or after slip, subsequent focusing of slip within them could be complicated. 1 Mitchell, T.A., Ben-Zion, Y., Shimamoto, T., 2011. Ear. Planet. Sci. Lett. 308, 284-297. 2 Lin, A., Yamashita, K, Tanaka, M. J., 2013. Struc. Geol. 48, 3-13. 3 White, J.C., Lin, A. 2016. Proc. AGU Fall Mtg., T42-02 San Francisco.

Salient Features of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal Earthquake in Relation to Earthquake Cycle and Dynamic Rupture Models

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Ampuero, J. P.; Meng, L.; Hough, S. E.; Martin, S. S.; Asimaki, D.

2015-12-01

Two salient features of the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake provide new opportunities to evaluate models of earthquake cycle and dynamic rupture. The Gorkha earthquake broke only partially across the seismogenic depth of the Main Himalayan Thrust: its slip was confined in a narrow depth range near the bottom of the locked zone. As indicated by the belt of background seismicity and decades of geodetic monitoring, this is an area of stress concentration induced by deep fault creep. Previous conceptual models attribute such intermediate-size events to rheological segmentation along-dip, including a fault segment with intermediate rheology in between the stable and unstable slip segments. We will present results from earthquake cycle models that, in contrast, highlight the role of stress loading concentration, rather than frictional segmentation. These models produce "super-cycles" comprising recurrent characteristic events interspersed by deep, smaller non-characteristic events of overall increasing magnitude. Because the non-characteristic events are an intrinsic component of the earthquake super-cycle, the notion of Coulomb triggering or time-advance of the "big one" is ill-defined. The high-frequency (HF) ground motions produced in Kathmandu by the Gorkha earthquake were weaker than expected for such a magnitude and such close distance to the rupture, as attested by strong motion recordings and by macroseismic data. Static slip reached close to Kathmandu but had a long rise time, consistent with control by the along-dip extent of the rupture. Moreover, the HF (1 Hz) radiation sources, imaged by teleseismic back-projection of multiple dense arrays calibrated by aftershock data, was deep and far from Kathmandu. We argue that HF rupture imaging provided a better predictor of shaking intensity than finite source inversion. The deep location of HF radiation can be attributed to rupture over heterogeneous initial stresses left by the background seismic activity

Afterslip, tremor, and the Denali fault earthquake

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Gomberg, Joan; Prejean, Stephanie; Ruppert, Natalia

2012-01-01

We tested the hypothesis that afterslip should be accompanied by tremor using observations of seismic and aseismic deformation surrounding the 2002 M 7.9 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake (DFE). Afterslip happens more frequently than spontaneous slow slip and has been observed in a wider range of tectonic environments, and thus the existence or absence of tremor accompanying afterslip may provide new clues about tremor generation. We also searched for precursory tremor, as a proxy for posited accelerating slip leading to rupture. Our search yielded no tremor during the five days prior to the DFE or in several intervals in the three months after. This negative result and an array of other observations all may be explained by rupture penetrating below the presumed locked zone into the frictional transition zone. While not unique, such an explanation corroborates previous models of megathrust and transform earthquake ruptures that extend well into the transition zone.

Listening to the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake

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Peng, Zhigang; Aiken, Chastity; Kilb, Debi; Shelly, David R.; Enescu, Bogdan

2012-01-01

The magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake on 11 March 2011 is the largest earthquake to date in Japan’s modern history and is ranked as the fourth largest earthquake in the world since 1900. This earthquake occurred within the northeast Japan subduction zone (Figure 1), where the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the Okhotsk plate at rate of ∼8–9 cm/yr (DeMets et al. 2010). This type of extremely large earthquake within a subduction zone is generally termed a “megathrust” earthquake. Strong shaking from this magnitude 9 earthquake engulfed the entire Japanese Islands, reaching a maximum acceleration ∼3 times that of gravity (3 g). Two days prior to the main event, a foreshock sequence occurred, including one earthquake of magnitude 7.2. Following the main event, numerous aftershocks occurred around the main slip region; the largest of these was magnitude 7.9. The entire foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks sequence was well recorded by thousands of sensitive seismometers and geodetic instruments across Japan, resulting in the best-recorded megathrust earthquake in history. This devastating earthquake resulted in significant damage and high death tolls caused primarily by the associated large tsunami. This tsunami reached heights of more than 30 m, and inundation propagated inland more than 5 km from the Pacific coast, which also caused a nuclear crisis that is still affecting people’s lives in certain regions of Japan.

A gamma-ray approach for hidden faults in the disaster zone of 1995 Kobe earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Terakado, Y.

1997-01-01

Gamma-ray intensities were measured of the ground on an eastern part of the Kobe urban area, where a strong earthquake occurred in January 1995 killing 6000 people, in order to investigate hidden faults and its relation to the damage of constructions. Several linear alignments of relatively high γ-ray intensity points were detected and at least some of them are considered to be ascribed to small-scale faults. It can be pointed out that the localities of such high γ-ray alignments are almost in accordance with those of relatively highly damaged zones. However, a long and distinct high γ-ray alignment as expected for a large fault which runs through the heavy damage belt does not exist beneath the area, supporting non-fault origin for the overall heavy damage belt. (author)

Teamwork tools and activities within the hazard component of the Global Earthquake Model

Science.gov (United States)

Pagani, M.; Weatherill, G.; Monelli, D.; Danciu, L.

2013-05-01

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a public-private partnership aimed at supporting and fostering a global community of scientists and engineers working in the fields of seismic hazard and risk assessment. In the hazard sector, in particular, GEM recognizes the importance of local ownership and leadership in the creation of seismic hazard models. For this reason, over the last few years, GEM has been promoting different activities in the context of seismic hazard analysis ranging, for example, from regional projects targeted at the creation of updated seismic hazard studies to the development of a new open-source seismic hazard and risk calculation software called OpenQuake-engine (http://globalquakemodel.org). In this communication we'll provide a tour of the various activities completed, such as the new ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Catalogue, and of currently on-going initiatives like the creation of a suite of tools for the creation of PSHA input models. Discussion, comments and criticism by the colleagues in the audience will be highly appreciated.

Pakistan’s Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards Potential Impact on Infrastructure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GEORGE PARARAS-CARAYANNIS

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Interaction of the Indian, Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates has resulted in the formation of major active fault systems in South Asia. Compression along the tectonic boundaries results in thrust or reverse type of faulting and zones of crustal deformation characterized by high seismic activity and continuing Orogenesis. The more intense seismic activity occurs near regions of thrust faulting which is developing at the Himalayan foothills. In northern Pakistan, the Hindu Kush Mountains converge with the Karakoram Range to form a part of the Himalayan mountain system. Northern, western as well as southern Pakistan, Kashmir and northern India and Afghanistan are along such zones of high seismic activity. In Pakistan, most of the earthquakes occur in the north and western regions along the boundary of the Indian tectonic plate with the Iranian and Afghan micro-plates. The active zone extends from the Makran region in the southwest to the Hazara-Kashmir syntaxial bend in the north. Southwest Pakistan is vulnerable to both earthquake and tsunami hazards. In 2005, earthquakes devastated northern Pakistan and Kashmir and severely affected the cities of Muzaffarabad, Islamadad and Rawalpindi, causing severe destruction to the infrastructure of the northern region. A major earthquake along an extensive transform fault system in 1935 destroyed the city Quetta and the adjoining region. A major earthquake along the northern Arabian sea in 1945 generated a very destructive tsunami along the coasts of Baluchistan and Sindh Provinces. The region near Karachi is vulnerable as it is located near four major faults where destructive earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred in the past. Given Pakistan’s vulnerability and extensive infrastructure development in recent years, the present study reviews briefly the earthquake and tsunami risk factors and assesses the impact that such disasters can have on the country’s critical infrastructure - which includes

Complex rupture during the 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake

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Hayes, G.P.; Briggs, R.W.; Sladen, A.; Fielding, E.J.; Prentice, C.; Hudnut, K.; Mann, P.; Taylor, F.W.; Crone, A.J.; Gold, R.; Ito, T.; Simons, M.

2010-01-01

Initially, the devastating Mw 7.0, 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake seemed to involve straightforward accommodation of oblique relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates along the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone. Here, we combine seismological observations, geologic field data and space geodetic measurements to show that, instead, the rupture process may have involved slip on multiple faults. Primary surface deformation was driven by rupture on blind thrust faults with only minor, deep, lateral slip along or near the main Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone; thus the event only partially relieved centuries of accumulated left-lateral strain on a small part of the plate-boundary system. Together with the predominance of shallow off-fault thrusting, the lack of surface deformation implies that remaining shallow shear strain will be released in future surface-rupturing earthquakes on the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault zone, as occurred in inferred Holocene and probable historic events. We suggest that the geological signature of this earthquakeg-broad warping and coastal deformation rather than surface rupture along the main fault zoneg-will not be easily recognized by standard palaeoseismic studies. We conclude that similarly complex earthquakes in tectonic environments that accommodate both translation and convergenceg-such as the San Andreas fault through the Transverse Ranges of Californiag-may be missing from the prehistoric earthquake record. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Marmara Island earthquakes, of 1265 and 1935; Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Altınok

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The long-term seismicity of the Marmara Sea region in northwestern Turkey is relatively well-recorded. Some large and some of the smaller events are clearly associated with fault zones known to be seismically active, which have distinct morphological expressions and have generated damaging earthquakes before and later. Some less common and moderate size earthquakes have occurred in the vicinity of the Marmara Islands in the west Marmara Sea. This paper presents an extended summary of the most important earthquakes that have occurred in 1265 and 1935 and have since been known as the Marmara Island earthquakes. The informative data and the approaches used have therefore the potential of documenting earthquake ruptures of fault segments and may extend the records kept on earthquakes far before known history, rock falls and abnormal sea waves observed during these events, thus improving hazard evaluations and the fundamental understanding of the process of an earthquake.

Relating stick-slip friction experiments to earthquake source parameters

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McGarr, Arthur F.

2012-01-01

Analytical results for parameters, such as static stress drop, for stick-slip friction experiments, with arbitrary input parameters, can be determined by solving an energy-balance equation. These results can then be related to a given earthquake based on its seismic moment and the maximum slip within its rupture zone, assuming that the rupture process entails the same physics as stick-slip friction. This analysis yields overshoots and ratios of apparent stress to static stress drop of about 0.25. The inferred earthquake source parameters static stress drop, apparent stress, slip rate, and radiated energy are robust inasmuch as they are largely independent of the experimental parameters used in their estimation. Instead, these earthquake parameters depend on C, the ratio of maximum slip to the cube root of the seismic moment. C is controlled by the normal stress applied to the rupture plane and the difference between the static and dynamic coefficients of friction. Estimating yield stress and seismic efficiency using the same procedure is only possible when the actual static and dynamic coefficients of friction are known within the earthquake rupture zone.

Earthquakes of Garhwal Himalaya region of NW Himalaya, India: A study of relocated earthquakes and their seismogenic source and stress

Science.gov (United States)

R, A. P.; Paul, A.; Singh, S.

2017-12-01

Since the continent-continent collision 55 Ma, the Himalaya has accommodated 2000 km of convergence along its arc. The strain energy is being accumulated at a rate of 37-44 mm/yr and releases at time as earthquakes. The Garhwal Himalaya is located at the western side of a Seismic Gap, where a great earthquake is overdue atleast since 200 years. This seismic gap (Central Seismic Gap: CSG) with 52% probability for a future great earthquake is located between the rupture zones of two significant/great earthquakes, viz. the 1905 Kangra earthquake of M 7.8 and the 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake of M 8.0; and the most recent one, the 2015 Gorkha earthquake of M 7.8 is in the eastern side of this seismic gap (CSG). The Garhwal Himalaya is one of the ideal locations of the Himalaya where all the major Himalayan structures and the Himalayan Seimsicity Belt (HSB) can ably be described and studied. In the present study, we are presenting the spatio-temporal analysis of the relocated local micro-moderate earthquakes, recorded by a seismicity monitoring network, which is operational since, 2007. The earthquake locations are relocated using the HypoDD (double difference hypocenter method for earthquake relocations) program. The dataset from July, 2007- September, 2015 have been used in this study to estimate their spatio-temporal relationships, moment tensor (MT) solutions for the earthquakes of M>3.0, stress tensors and their interactions. We have also used the composite focal mechanism solutions for small earthquakes. The majority of the MT solutions show thrust type mechanism and located near the mid-crustal-ramp (MCR) structure of the detachment surface at 8-15 km depth beneath the outer lesser Himalaya and higher Himalaya regions. The prevailing stress has been identified to be compressional towards NNE-SSW, which is the direction of relative plate motion between the India and Eurasia continental plates. The low friction coefficient estimated along with the stress inversions

New Geological Evidence of Past Earthquakes and Tsunami Along the Nankai Trough, Japan

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De Batist, M. A. O.; Heyvaert, V.; Hubert-Ferrari, A.; Fujiwara, O.; Shishikura, M.; Yokoyama, Y.; Brückner, H.; Garrett, E.; Boes, E.; Lamair, L.; Nakamura, A.; Miyairi, Y.; Yamamoto, S.

2015-12-01

The east coast of Japan is prone to tsunamigenic megathrust earthquakes, as tragically demonstrated in 2011 by the Tōhoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) and tsunami. The Nankai Trough subduction zone, to the southwest of the area affected by the Tōhoku disaster and facing the densely populated and heavily industrialized southern coastline of central and west Japan, is expected to generate another megathrust earthquake and tsunami in the near future. This subduction zone is, however, segmented and appears to be characterized by a variable rupture mode, involving single- as well as multi-segment ruptures, which has immediate implications for their tsunamigenic potential, and also renders the collection of sufficiently long time records of past earthquakes and tsunami in this region fundamental for an adequate hazard and risk assessment. Over the past three decades, Japanese researchers have acquired a large amount of geological evidence of past earthquakes and tsunami, in many cases extending back in time for several thousands of years. This evidence includes uplifted marine terraces, turbidites, liquefaction features, subsided marshes and tsunami deposits in coastal lakes and lowlands. Despite these efforts, current understanding of the behaviour of the subduction zone still remains limited, due to site-specific evidence creation and preservation thresholds and issues over alternative hypotheses for proposed palaeoseismic evidence and insufficiently precise chronological control. Within the QuakeRecNankai project we are generating a long and coherent time series of megathrust earthquake and tsunami recurrences along the Nankai Trough subduction zone by integrating all existing evidence with new geological records of paleo-tsunami in the Lake Hamana region and of paleo-earthquakes from selected lakes in the Mount Fuji area. We combine extensive fieldwork in coastal plain areas and lakes, with advanced sedimentological and geochemical analyses and innovative dating techniques.

Romanian earthquakes analysis using BURAR seismic array

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borleanu, Felix; Rogozea, Maria; Nica, Daniela; Popescu, Emilia; Popa, Mihaela; Radulian, Mircea

2008-01-01

Bucovina seismic array (BURAR) is a medium-aperture array, installed in 2002 in the northern part of Romania (47.61480 N latitude, 25.21680 E longitude, 1150 m altitude), as a result of the cooperation between Air Force Technical Applications Center, USA and National Institute for Earth Physics, Romania. The array consists of ten elements, located in boreholes and distributed over a 5 x 5 km 2 area; nine with short-period vertical sensors and one with a broadband three-component sensor. Since the new station has been operating the earthquake survey of Romania's territory has been significantly improved. Data recorded by BURAR during 01.01.2005 - 12.31.2005 time interval are first processed and analyzed, in order to establish the array detection capability of the local earthquakes, occurred in different Romanian seismic zones. Subsequently a spectral ratios technique was applied in order to determine the calibration relationships for magnitude, using only the information gathered by BURAR station. The spectral ratios are computed relatively to a reference event, considered as representative for each seismic zone. This method has the advantage to eliminate the path effects. The new calibration procedure is tested for the case of Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes and proved to be very efficient in constraining the size of these earthquakes. (authors)

Stress orientations in subduction zones and the strength of subduction megathrust faults.

Science.gov (United States)

Hardebeck, Jeanne L

2015-09-11

Subduction zone megathrust faults produce most of the world's largest earthquakes. Although the physical properties of these faults are difficult to observe directly, their frictional strength can be estimated indirectly by constraining the orientations of the stresses that act on them. A global investigation of stress orientations in subduction zones finds that the maximum compressive stress axis plunges systematically trenchward, consistently making an angle of 45° to 60° with respect to the subduction megathrust fault. These angles indicate that the megathrust fault is not substantially weaker than its surroundings. Together with several other lines of evidence, this implies that subduction zone megathrusts are weak faults in a low-stress environment. The deforming outer accretionary wedge may decouple the stress state along the megathrust from the constraints of the free surface. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Regional fault deformation characteristics before and after the Menyuan Ms6.4 earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ning Li

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes data regarding cross-fault deformations within the seismogenic zone of the 2016 Qinghai Menyuan Ms6.4 earthquake and its surrounding area. The results showed that the tendency anomaly sites near the epicenter had relatively long anomaly durations prior to the earthquake, while sudden-jumping anomaly sites started to increase in the middle eastern Qilian Mountains approximately a year before the earthquake and continued to increase and migrate towards the vicinity of the epicenter two to six months before the earthquake. Intensive observations a few days after the earthquake indicated that abnormal returns and turns before the earthquake were significant, but all had small amplitudes, and the coseismic effect was generally minor. In addition, the post-seismic tendency analysis of individual cross faults in the Qilian Mountain fault zone revealed an accelerating thrust tendency at all cross-fault sites in the middle Qilian Mountains after the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. This indicates that the Wenchuan mega-earthquake exerted a great impact on the dynamic environment of the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet plate and significantly enhanced the extrusion effect of the Indian plate on the middle Qilian Mountains, generating favorable conditions for the occurrence of Menyuan thrust earthquakes.

Global Discontinuity Structure of the Mantle Transition Zone from Finite-Frequency Tomography of SS Precursors

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Z.; Zhou, Y.

2017-12-01

We report global structure of the 410-km and 660-km discontinuities from finite-frequency tomography using frequency-dependent traveltime measurements of SS precursors recorded at the Global Seismological Network (GSN). Finite-frequency sensitivity kernels for discontinuity depth perturbations are calculated in the framework of traveling-wave mode coupling. We parametrize the global discontinuities using a set of spherical triangular grid points and solve the tomographic inverse problem based on singular value decomposition. Our global 410-km and 660-km discontinuity models reveal distinctly different characteristics beneath the oceans and subduction zones. In general, oceanic regions are associated with a thinner mantle transition zone and depth perturbations of the 410-km and 660-km discontinuities are anti-correlated, in agreement with a thermal origin and an overall warm and dry mantle beneath the oceans. The perturbations are not uniform throughout the oceans but show strong small-scale variations, indicating complex processes in the mantle transition zone. In major subduction zones (except for South America where data coverage is sparse), depth perturbations of the 410-km and 660-km discontinuities are correlated, with both the 410-km and the 660-km discontinuities occurring at greater depths. The distributions of the anomalies are consistent with cold stagnant slabs just above the 660-km discontinuity and ascending return flows in a superadiabatic upper mantle.

Scientists Examine Challenges and Lessons From Japan's Earthquake and Tsunami

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Showstack, Randy

2011-03-01

A week after the magnitude 9.0 great Tohoku earthquake and the resulting tragic and damaging tsunami of 11 March struck Japan, the ramifications continued, with a series of major aftershocks (as Eos went to press, there had been about 4 dozen with magnitudes greater than 6); the grim search for missing people—the death toll was expected to approximate 10,000; the urgent assistance needed for the more than 400,000 homeless and the 1 million people without water; and the frantic efforts to avert an environmental catastrophe at Japan's damaged Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, about 225 kilometers northeast of Tokyo, where radiation was leaking. The earthquake offshore of Honshu in northeastern Japan (see Figure 1) was a plate boundary rupture along the Japan Trench subduction zone, with the source area of the earthquake estimated at 400-500 kilometers long with a maximum slip of 20 meters, determined through various means including Global Positioning System (GPS) and seismographic data, according to Kenji Satake, professor at the Earthquake Research Institute of the University of Tokyo. In some places the tsunami may have topped 7 meters—the maximum instrumental measurement at many coastal tide gauges—and some parts of the coastline may have been inundated more than 5 kilometers inland, Satake indicated. The International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) noted that eyewitnesses reported that the highest tsunami waves were 13 meters high. Satake also noted that continuous GPS stations indicate that the coast near Sendai—which is 130 kilometers west of the earthquake and is the largest city in the Tohoku region of Honshu—moved more than 4 meters horizontally and subsided about 0.8 meter.

Imaging the deep structures of the convergent plates along the Ecuadorian subduction zone through receiver function analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Galve, A.; Charvis, P.; Regnier, M. M.; Font, Y.; Nocquet, J. M.; Segovia, M.

2017-12-01

The Ecuadorian subduction zone was affected by several large M>7.5 earthquakes. While we have low resolution on the 1942, 1958 earthquakes rupture zones extension, the 2016 Pedernales earthquake, that occurs at the same location than the 1942 earthquake, give strong constraints on the deep limit of the seismogenic zone. This downdip limit is caused by the onset of plasticity at a critical temperature (> 350-450 °C for crustal materials, or serpentinized mantle wedge, and eventually > 700 °C for dry mantle). However we still don't know exactly where is the upper plate Moho and therefore what controls the downdip limit of Ecuadorian large earthquakes seismogenic zone. For several years Géoazur and IG-EPN have maintained permanent and temporary networks (ADN and JUAN projects) along the margin to register the subduction zone seismological activity. Although Ecuador is not a good place to perform receiver function due to its position with respect to the worldwide teleseismic sources, the very long time deployment compensate this issue. We performed a frequency dependent receiver function analysis to derive (1) the thickness of the downgoing plate, (2) the interplate depth and (3) the upper plate Moho. These constraints give the frame to interpretation on the seismogenic zone of the 2016 Pedernales earthquake.

The Temblor mobile seismic risk app, v2: Rapid and seamless earthquake information to inspire individuals to recognize and reduce their risk

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, R. S.; Sevilgen, V.; Sevilgen, S.; Kim, A.; Jacobson, D. S.; Lotto, G. C.; Ely, G.; Bhattacharjee, G.; O'Sullivan, J.

2017-12-01

Temblor quantifies and personalizes earthquake risk and offers solutions by connecting users with qualified retrofit and insurance providers. Temblor's daily blog on current earthquakes, seismic swarms, eruptions, floods, and landslides makes the science accessible to the public. Temblor is available on iPhone, Android, and mobile web app platforms (http://temblor.net). The app presents both scenario (worst case) and probabilistic (most likely) financial losses for homes and commercial buildings, and estimates the impact of seismic retrofit and insurance on the losses and safety. Temblor's map interface has clickable earthquakes (with source parameters and links) and active faults (name, type, and slip rate) around the world, and layers for liquefaction, landslides, tsunami inundation, and flood zones in the U.S. The app draws from the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model and the 2014 USGS Building Seismic Safety Council ShakeMap scenari0 database. The Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model is used worldwide, with active faults displayed in 75 countries. The Temblor real-time global catalog is merged from global and national catalogs, with aftershocks discriminated from mainshocks. Earthquake notifications are issued to Temblor users within 30 seconds of their occurrence, with approximate locations and magnitudes that are rapidly refined in the ensuing minutes. Launched in 2015, Temblor has 650,000 unique users, including 250,000 in the U.S. and 110,000 in Chile, as well as 52,000 Facebook followers. All data shown in Temblor is gathered from authoritative or published sources and is synthesized to be intuitive and actionable to the public. Principal data sources include USGS, FEMA, EMSC, GEM Foundation, NOAA, GNS Science (New Zealand), INGV (Italy), PHIVOLCS (Philippines), GSJ (Japan), Taiwan Earthquake Model, EOS Singapore (Southeast Asia), MTA (Turkey), PB2003 (plate boundaries), CICESE (Baja California), California Geological Survey, and 20 other state

Numerical Simulation of a Non-volcanic Hydrothermal System Caused by Formation of a High Permeability Fracture Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Oka, Daisuke; Ehara, Sachio; Fujimitsu, Yasuhiro

2010-05-01

Because in the Japanese islands the earth crust activity is very active, a disposal stratum for high-level radioactive waste produced by reprocessing the spent nuclear fuel from nuclear power plants will be selected in the tectonically stable areas in which the waste can be disposed underground safely for a long term and there is no influence of earthquakes, seismic activities, volcanic activities, upheaval, sedimentation, erosion, climate and global sea level change and so on, which causes the risk of the inflow of the groundwater to destroy the disposal site or the outflow to the ground surface. However, even if the disposal stratum in such condition will be chosen, in case that a new high permeability fracture zone is formed by the earthquake, and a new hydrothermal system may be formed for a long term (thousands or millions years) and the system may affect the disposal site. Therefore, we have to understand the feature of the non-volcanic hydrothermal system through the high permeability fracture zone. We estimated such influence by using HYDROTHERM Ver2.2 (Hayba & Ingebritsen, 1994), which is a three-dimensional numerical reservoir simulator. The model field is the northwestern part of Kego Fault, which was formed by a series of earthquakes called "the 2005 Fukuoka Prefecture Western Offshore Earthquakes" (the main shock of Mjma 7.0 on 20 March 2005) in Kyushu, Japan. The results of the numerical simulations show the development of a low temperature hydrothermal system as a new fracture zone is formed, in case that there is no volcanic heat source. The results of the simulations up to 100,000 years after formation of the fracture zone show that the higher heat flow and the wider and more permeable fracture zone accelerate the development of the hydrothermal system in the fracture zone. As a result of calculation of up to10 million years, we clarified the evolutional process of the non-volcanic hydrothermal system through the high permeability fracture zone. At

Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slunga, R.

1979-03-01

A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

Earthquake nucleation in weak subducted carbonates

Science.gov (United States)

Kurzawski, Robert M.; Stipp, Michael; Niemeijer, André R.; Spiers, Christopher J.; Behrmann, Jan H.

2016-09-01

Ocean-floor carbonate- and clay-rich sediments form major inputs to subduction zones, especially at low-latitude convergent plate margins. Therefore, knowledge of their frictional behaviour is fundamental for understanding plate-boundary earthquakes. Here we report results of mechanical tests performed on simulated fault gouges prepared from ocean-floor carbonates and clays, cored during IODP drilling offshore Costa Rica. Clay-rich gouges show internal friction coefficients (that is, the slope of linearized shear stress versus normal stress data) of μint = 0.44 - 0.56, irrespective of temperature and pore-fluid pressure (Pf). By contrast, μint for the carbonate gouge strongly depends on temperature and pore-fluid pressure, with μint decreasing dramatically from 0.84 at room temperature and Pf = 20 MPa to 0.27 at T = 140 °C and Pf = 120 MPa. This effect provides a fundamental mechanism of shear localization and earthquake generation in subduction zones, and makes carbonates likely nucleation sites for plate-boundary earthquakes. Our results imply that rupture nucleation is prompted by a combination of temperature-controlled frictional instability and temperature- and pore-pressure-dependent weakening of calcareous fault gouges.

Defeating Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, R. S.

2012-12-01

The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

Nonlinear analyses and failure patterns of typical masonry school buildings in the epicentral zone of the 2016 Italian earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Clementi, Cristhian; Clementi, Francesco; Lenci, Stefano

2017-11-01

The paper discusses the behavior of typical masonry school buildings in the center of Italy built at the end of 1950s without any seismic guidelines. These structures have faced the recent Italian earthquakes in 2016 without diffuse damages. Global numerical models of the building have been built and masonry material has been simulated as nonlinear. Sensitivity analyses are done to evaluate the reliability of the structural models.

Locating Very-Low-Frequency Earthquakes in the San Andreas Fault.

Science.gov (United States)

Peña-Castro, A. F.; Harrington, R. M.; Cochran, E. S.

2016-12-01

The portion of tectonic fault where rheological properties transtition from brittle to ductile hosts a variety of seismic signals suggesting a range of slip velocities. In subduction zones, the two dominantly observed seismic signals include very-low frequency earthquakes ( VLFEs), and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) or tectonic tremor. Tremor and LFE are also commonly observed in transform faults, however, VLFEs have been reported dominantly in subduction zone environments. Here we show some of the first known observations of VLFEs occurring on a plate boundary transform fault, the San Andreas Fault (SAF) between the Cholame-Parkfield segment in California. We detect VLFEs using both permanent and temporary stations in 2010-2011 within approximately 70 km of Cholame, California. We search continous waveforms filtered from 0.02-0.05 Hz, and remove time windows containing teleseismic events and local earthquakes, as identified in the global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) and the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN) catalog. We estimate the VLFE locations by converting the signal into envelopes, and cross-correlating them for phase-picking, similar to procedures used for locating tectonic tremor. We first perform epicentral location using a grid search method and estimate a hypocenter location using Hypoinverse and a shear-wave velocity model when the epicenter is located close to the SAF trace. We account for the velocity contrast across the fault using separate 1D velocity models for stations on each side. Estimated hypocentral VLFE depths are similar to tremor catalog depths ( 15-30 km). Only a few VLFEs produced robust hypocentral locations, presumably due to the difficulty in picking accurate phase arrivals with such a low-frequency signal. However, for events for which no location could be obtained, the moveout of phase arrivals across the stations were similar in character, suggesting that other observed VLFEs occurred in close proximity.

Scenario based tsunami wave height estimation towards hazard evaluation for the Hellenic coastline and examples of extreme inundation zones in South Aegean

Science.gov (United States)

Melis, Nikolaos S.; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Frentzos, Elias; Krassanakis, Vassilios

2016-04-01

A scenario based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment is used, by incorporating earthquake sources with the potential to produce extreme tsunamis (measured through their capacity to cause maximum wave height and inundation extent). In the present study we follow a two phase approach. In the first phase, existing earthquake hazard zoning in the greater Aegean region is used to derive representative maximum expected earthquake magnitude events, with realistic seismotectonic source characteristics, and of greatest tsunamigenic potential within each zone. By stacking the scenario produced maximum wave heights a global maximum map is constructed for the entire Hellenic coastline, corresponding to all expected extreme offshore earthquake sources. Further evaluation of the produced coastline categories based on the maximum expected wave heights emphasizes the tsunami hazard in selected coastal zones with important functions (i.e. touristic crowded zones, industrial zones, airports, power plants etc). Owing to its proximity to the Hellenic Arc, many urban centres and being a popular tourist destination, Crete Island and the South Aegean region are given a top priority to define extreme inundation zoning. In the second phase, a set of four large coastal cities (Kalamata, Chania, Heraklion and Rethymno), important for tsunami hazard, due i.e. to the crowded beaches during the summer season or industrial facilities, are explored towards preparedness and resilience for tsunami hazard in Greece. To simulate tsunamis in the Aegean region (generation, propagation and runup) the MOST - ComMIT NOAA code was used. High resolution DEMs for bathymetry and topography were joined via an interface, specifically developed for the inundation maps in this study and with similar products in mind. For the examples explored in the present study, we used 5m resolution for the topography and 30m resolution for the bathymetry, respectively. Although this study can be considered as

Linking fault permeability, fluid flow, and earthquake triggering in a hydrothermally active tectonic setting: Numerical Simulations of the hydrodynamics in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone, Iceland.

Science.gov (United States)

Lupi, M.; Geiger, S.; Graham, C.; Claesson, L.; Richter, B.

2007-12-01

A good insight into the transient fluid flow evolution within a hydrothermal system is of primary importance for the understanding of several geologic processes, for example the hydrodynamic triggering of earthquakes or the formation of mineral deposits. The strong permeability contrast between different crustal layers as well as the high geothermal gradient of these areas are elements that strongly affect the flow behaviour. In addition, the sudden and transient occurrence of joints, faults and magmatic intrusions are likely to change the hydrothermal flow paths in very short time. The Tjörnes Fracture Zone (TFZ) north of Iceland, is such a hydrothermal area where a high geothermal gradient, magmatic bodies, faults, and the strong contrast between sediments and fractured lava layers govern the large-scale fluid flow. The TFZ offsets the Kolbeinsey Ridge and the Northern Rift Zone. It is characterized by km-scale faults that link sub-seafloor sediments and lava layers with deeper crystalline rocks. These structures focus fluid flow and allow for the mixing between cold seawater and deep hydrothermal fluids. A strong seismic activity is present in the TFZ: earthquakes up to magnitude 7 have been recorded over the past years. Hydrogeochemical changes before, during and after a magnitude 5.8 earthquake suggest that the evolving stress state before the earthquake leads to (remote) permeability variations, which alter the fluid flow paths. This is in agreement with recent numerical fluid flow simulations which demonstrate that fluid flow in magmatic- hydrothermal systems is often convective and very sensitive to small variations in permeability. In order to understand the transient fluid flow behaviour in this complex geological environment, we have conducted numerical simulations of heat and mass transport in two geologically realistic cross-sectional models of the TFZ. The geologic models are discretised using finite element and finite volume methods. They hence have

Temporal Variation of Tectonic Tremor Activity Associated with Nearby Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, K.; Van der Lee, S.; Hsu, Y. J.; Pu, H. C.

2017-12-01

Tectonic tremor and slow slip events, located downdip from the seismogenic zone, hold the key to recurring patterns of typical earthquakes. Several findings of slow aseismic slip during the prenucletion processes of nearby earthquakes have provided new insight into the study of stress transform of slow earthquakes in fault zones prior to megathrust earthquakes. However, how tectonic tremor is associated with the occurrence of nearby earthquakes remains unclear. To enhance our understanding of the stress interaction between tremor and earthquakes, we developed an algorithm for the automatic detection and location of tectonic tremor in the collisional tectonic environment in Taiwan. Our analysis of a three-year data set indicates a short-term increase in the tremor rate starting at 19 days before the 2010 ML6.4 Jiashian main shock (Chao et al., JGR, 2017). Around the time when the tremor rate began to rise, one GPS station recorded a flip in its direction of motion. We hypothesize that tremor is driven by a slow-slip event that preceded the occurrence of the shallower nearby main shock, even though the inferred slip is too small to be observed by all GPS stations. To better quantify what the necessary condition for tremor to response to nearby earthquakes is, we obtained a 13-year ambient tremor catalog from 2004 to 2016 in the same region. We examine the spatiotemporal relationship between tremor and 37 ML>=5.0 (seven events with ML>=6.0) nearby earthquakes located within 0.5 degrees to the active tremor sources. The findings from this study can enhance our understanding of the interaction among tremor, slow slip, and nearby earthquakes in the high seismic hazard regions.

Critical behavior in earthquake energy dissipation

Science.gov (United States)

Wanliss, James; Muñoz, Víctor; Pastén, Denisse; Toledo, Benjamín; Valdivia, Juan Alejandro

2017-09-01

We explore bursty multiscale energy dissipation from earthquakes flanked by latitudes 29° S and 35.5° S, and longitudes 69.501° W and 73.944° W (in the Chilean central zone). Our work compares the predictions of a theory of nonequilibrium phase transitions with nonstandard statistical signatures of earthquake complex scaling behaviors. For temporal scales less than 84 hours, time development of earthquake radiated energy activity follows an algebraic arrangement consistent with estimates from the theory of nonequilibrium phase transitions. There are no characteristic scales for probability distributions of sizes and lifetimes of the activity bursts in the scaling region. The power-law exponents describing the probability distributions suggest that the main energy dissipation takes place due to largest bursts of activity, such as major earthquakes, as opposed to smaller activations which contribute less significantly though they have greater relative occurrence. The results obtained provide statistical evidence that earthquake energy dissipation mechanisms are essentially "scale-free", displaying statistical and dynamical self-similarity. Our results provide some evidence that earthquake radiated energy and directed percolation belong to a similar universality class.

Earthquake Hazard Analysis Methods: A Review

Science.gov (United States)

Sari, A. M.; Fakhrurrozi, A.

2018-02-01

One of natural disasters that have significantly impacted on risks and damage is an earthquake. World countries such as China, Japan, and Indonesia are countries located on the active movement of continental plates with more frequent earthquake occurrence compared to other countries. Several methods of earthquake hazard analysis have been done, for example by analyzing seismic zone and earthquake hazard micro-zonation, by using Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (N-DSHA) method, and by using Remote Sensing. In its application, it is necessary to review the effectiveness of each technique in advance. Considering the efficiency of time and the accuracy of data, remote sensing is used as a reference to the assess earthquake hazard accurately and quickly as it only takes a limited time required in the right decision-making shortly after the disaster. Exposed areas and possibly vulnerable areas due to earthquake hazards can be easily analyzed using remote sensing. Technological developments in remote sensing such as GeoEye-1 provide added value and excellence in the use of remote sensing as one of the methods in the assessment of earthquake risk and damage. Furthermore, the use of this technique is expected to be considered in designing policies for disaster management in particular and can reduce the risk of natural disasters such as earthquakes in Indonesia.

Uniform risk spectra of strong earthquake ground motion: NEQRISK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, V.W.; Trifunac, M.D.

1987-01-01

The concept of uniform risk spectra of Anderson and Trifunac (1977) has been generalized to include (1) more refined description of earthquake source zones, (2) the uncertainties in estimating seismicity parameters a and b in log 10 N = a - bM, (3) to consider uncertainties in estimation of maximum earthquake size in each source zone, and to (4) include the most recent results on empirical scaling of strong motion amplitudes at a site. Examples of using to new NEQRISK program are presented and compared with the corresponding case studies of Anderson and Trifunac (1977). The organization of the computer program NEQRISK is also briefly described

1964 Great Alaska Earthquake: a photographic tour of Anchorage, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Thoms, Evan E.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Anderson, Rebecca D.; McGimsey, Robert G.

2014-01-01

On March 27, 1964, at 5:36 p.m., a magnitude 9.2 earthquake, the largest recorded earthquake in U.S. history, struck southcentral Alaska (fig. 1). The Great Alaska Earthquake (also known as the Good Friday Earthquake) occurred at a pivotal time in the history of earth science, and helped lead to the acceptance of plate tectonic theory (Cox, 1973; Brocher and others, 2014). All large subduction zone earthquakes are understood through insights learned from the 1964 event, and observations and interpretations of the earthquake have influenced the design of infrastructure and seismic monitoring systems now in place. The earthquake caused extensive damage across the State, and triggered local tsunamis that devastated the Alaskan towns of Whittier, Valdez, and Seward. In Anchorage, the main cause of damage was ground shaking, which lasted approximately 4.5 minutes. Many buildings could not withstand this motion and were damaged or collapsed even though their foundations remained intact. More significantly, ground shaking triggered a number of landslides along coastal and drainage valley bluffs underlain by the Bootlegger Cove Formation, a composite of facies containing variably mixed gravel, sand, silt, and clay which were deposited over much of upper Cook Inlet during the Late Pleistocene (Ulery and others, 1983). Cyclic (or strain) softening of the more sensitive clay facies caused overlying blocks of soil to slide sideways along surfaces dipping by only a few degrees. This guide is the document version of an interactive web map that was created as part of the commemoration events for the 50th anniversary of the 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake. It is accessible at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Science Center website: http://alaska.usgs.gov/announcements/news/1964Earthquake/. The website features a map display with suggested tour stops in Anchorage, historical photographs taken shortly after the earthquake, repeat photography of selected sites, scanned documents

Oceanic Sub-Moho Reflectors in and Around the Segmentation Boundary Between the Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake Area, the Central Nankai Trough

Science.gov (United States)

Nakanishi, A.; Kodaira, S.; Miura, S.; Ito, A.; Sato, T.; Park, J.; Obana, K.; Kaneda, Y.

2006-12-01

The Nankai Trough is a unique subduction zone because the recurrence intervals of M8 class earthquakes and the segmentation of rupture zones are well documented on the basis of geophysical, geological and historic data. In 2004, large intraslab earthquake (Mw7.5) occurred southeast off the Kii Peninsula, the central Nankai Trough. Recent ocean bottom seismograph observation off the Kii Peninsula shows seismicity concentrated in the oceanic crust and the uppermost mantle. To understand the genesis of such intraslab earthquakes and its relation to large interplate earthquakes as well as to obtain an entire structural image of Nankai Trough subduction seismogenic zone, a wide-angle reflection/refraction survey across the coseismic rupture zone of the Tonankai earthquake was conducted in 2004. This research is part of "Structure research on plate dynamics of the presumed rupture zone of the Tonankai-Nankai Earthquakes" funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. The result of structural image shows a bit thicker oceanic crust (>8km) subducting landward, and the existence of oceanic sub-Moho reflectors in the uppermost mantle. The aftershocks of the 2004 off Kii Peninsula earthquake are distributed within the oceanic crust and the uppermantle, which is not consistent with the estimated fault plane of main shock. Comparing the structural image with this aftershock distribution and usual seismicity in the uppermost mantle, the depth of the oceanic sub-Moho reflectors and the intraslab events within the uppermantle are both distributed around 20km. We consider that such sub-Moho reflectors may become a seismic fault of intraslab earthquakes.

Earthquake Swarm in Armutlu Peninsula, Eastern Marmara Region, Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Yavuz, Evrim; Çaka, Deniz; Tunç, Berna; Serkan Irmak, T.; Woith, Heiko; Cesca, Simone; Lühr, Birger-Gottfried; Barış, Şerif

2015-04-01

The most active fault system of Turkey is North Anatolian Fault Zone and caused two large earthquakes in 1999. These two earthquakes affected the eastern Marmara region destructively. Unbroken part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone crosses north of Armutlu Peninsula on east-west direction. This branch has been also located quite close to Istanbul known as a megacity with its high population, economic and social aspects. A new cluster of microseismic activity occurred in the direct vicinity southeastern of the Yalova Termal area. Activity started on August 2, 2014 with a series of micro events, and then on August 3, 2014 a local magnitude is 4.1 event occurred, more than 1000 in the followed until August 31, 2014. Thus we call this tentatively a swarm-like activity. Therefore, investigation of the micro-earthquake activity of the Armutlu Peninsula has become important to understand the relationship between the occurrence of micro-earthquakes and the tectonic structure of the region. For these reasons, Armutlu Network (ARNET), installed end of 2005 and equipped with currently 27 active seismic stations operating by Kocaeli University Earth and Space Sciences Research Center (ESSRC) and Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), is a very dense network tool able to record even micro-earthquakes in this region. In the 30 days period of August 02 to 31, 2014 Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) announced 120 local earthquakes ranging magnitudes between 0.7 and 4.1, but ARNET provided more than 1000 earthquakes for analyzes at the same time period. In this study, earthquakes of the swarm area and vicinity regions determined by ARNET were investigated. The focal mechanism of the August 03, 2014 22:22:42 (GMT) earthquake with local magnitude (Ml) 4.0 is obtained by the moment tensor solution. According to the solution, it discriminates a normal faulting with dextral component. The obtained focal mechanism solution is

Tsunami simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai Trough (Japan) based on stochastic rupture scenarios

KAUST Repository

Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mai, Paul Martin; Maruyama, Takuma; Mori, Nobuhito

2017-01-01

In this study, earthquake rupture models for future mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai subduction zone are developed by incorporating the main characteristics of inverted source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. These scenario

Subducting plate geology in three great earthquake ruptures of the western Alaska margin, Kodiak to Unimak

Science.gov (United States)

von Huene, Roland E.; Miller, John J.; Weinrebe, Wilhelm

2012-01-01

Three destructive earthquakes along the Alaska subduction zone sourced transoceanic tsunamis during the past 70 years. Since it is reasoned that past rupture areas might again source tsunamis in the future, we studied potential asperities and barriers in the subduction zone by examining Quaternary Gulf of Alaska plate history, geophysical data, and morphology. We relate the aftershock areas to subducting lower plate relief and dissimilar materials in the seismogenic zone in the 1964 Kodiak and adjacent 1938 Semidi Islands earthquake segments. In the 1946 Unimak earthquake segment, the exposed lower plate seafloor lacks major relief that might organize great earthquake rupture. However, the upper plate contains a deep transverse-trending basin and basement ridges associated with the Eocene continental Alaska convergent margin transition to the Aleutian island arc. These upper plate features are sufficiently large to have affected rupture propagation. In addition, massive slope failure in the Unimak area may explain the local 42-m-high 1946 tsunami runup. Although Quaternary geologic and tectonic processes included accretion to form a frontal prism, the study of seismic images, samples, and continental slope physiography shows a previous history of tectonic erosion. Implied asperities and barriers in the seismogenic zone could organize future great earthquake rupture.

Temporal variation of soil gas compositions for earthquake surveillance in Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walia, Vivek; Yang, Tsanyao Frank; Lin, Shih-Jung; Kumar, Arvind; Fu, Ching-Chou; Chiu, Jun-Ming; Chang, Hsaio-Hsien; Wen, Kuo-Liang; Chen, Cheng-Hong

2013-01-01

The present study is proposed to investigate temporal variations of soil–gas composition in the vicinity of different fault zones in Taiwan. To carry out the investigations, variations of soil–gases compositions were measured at continuous earthquake monitoring stations along Hsincheng and Hsinhua faults in Hsinchu and Tainan areas, respectively. Before selecting a monitoring site, the occurrence of deeper gas emanation was investigated by the soil–gas surveys and followed by continuous monitoring of some selected sites with respect to tectonic activity to check the sensitivity of the sites. Based on the results of long term geochemical monitoring at the established monitoring stations we can divide the studied area in two different tectonic zones. We proposed tectonic based model for earthquake forecasting in Taiwan and tested it for some big earthquakes occurred during observation period i.e. 2009–2010. Based on the anomalous signatures from particular monitoring stations we are in a state to identify the area for impending earthquakes of magnitude ≥5 and we have tested it for some earthquakes which rocked the country during that period. It can be concluded from above results that the stress/strain transmission for a particular earthquake is hindered by different tectonic settings of the region under study. - Highlights: ► Variations of soil–gases composition is studied at two different faults of Taiwan. ► Tectonic based model for earthquake forecasting in Taiwan was proposed and tested. ► Selection criteria to identify threshold earthquakes have been defined. ► Stress/strain transmission for earthquake may be hindered by tectonic settings

Numerical Analyses of Earthquake Induced Liquefaction and Deformation Behaviour of an Upstream Tailings Dam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Auchar Zardari

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Much of the seismic activity of northern Sweden consists of micro-earthquakes occurring near postglacial faults. However, larger magnitude earthquakes do occur in Sweden, and earthquake statistics indicate that a magnitude 5 event is likely to occur once every century. This paper presents dynamic analyses of the effects of larger earthquakes on an upstream tailings dam at the Aitik copper mine in northern Sweden. The analyses were performed to evaluate the potential for liquefaction and to assess stability of the dam under two specific earthquakes: a commonly occurring magnitude 3.6 event and a more extreme earthquake of magnitude 5.8. The dynamic analyses were carried out with the finite element program PLAXIS using a recently implemented constitutive model called UBCSAND. The results indicate that the magnitude 5.8 earthquake would likely induce liquefaction in a limited zone located below the ground surface near the embankment dikes. It is interpreted that stability of the dam may not be affected due to the limited extent of the liquefied zone. Both types of earthquakes are predicted to induce tolerable magnitudes of displacements. The results of the postseismic slope stability analysis, performed for a state after a seismic event, suggest that the dam is stable during both the earthquakes.

Analysis of the space, time and energy distribution of Vrancea earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radulian, M.; Popa, M.

1995-01-01

Statistical analysis of fractal properties of space, time and energy distributions of Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes is performed on a homogeneous and complete data set. All events with magnitudes M L >2.5 which occurred from 1974 to 1992 are considered. The 19-year time interval includes the major earthquakes of March 4, 1977, August 26, 1986 and May 30, 1990. The subducted plate, lying between 60 km and 180 km depth, is divided into four active zones with characteristic seismic activities. The correlations between the parameters defining the seismic activities in these zones are studied. The predictive properties of the parameters related to the stress distribution on the fault are analysed. The significant anomalies in time and size distributions of earthquakes are emphasized. The correlations between spatial distribution (fractal dimension), the frequency-magnitude distribution (b slope value) and the high-frequency energy radiated by the source (fall off of the displacement spectra) are studied both at the scale of the whole seismogenic volume and the scale of a specific active zone. The results of this study for the Vrancea earthquakes bring evidence in favour of the seismic source model with hierarchical inhomogeneities (Frankel, 1991) (Author) 8 Figs., 2 Tabs., 5 Refs

Preliminary report on Petatlan, Mexico: earthquake of 14 March 1979

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1979-01-01

A major earthquake, M/sub s/ = 7.6, occurred off the southern coast of Mexico near the town of Petatlan on 14 March 1979. The earthquake ruptured a 50-km-long section of the Middle American subduction zone, a seismic gap last ruptured by a major earthquake (M/sub s/ = 7.5) in 1943. Since adjacent gaps of approximately the same size have not had a large earthquake since 1911, and one of these suffered three major earthquakes in four years (1907, 1909, 1911), recurrence times for large events here are highly variable. Thus, this general area remains one of high seismic risk, and provides a focus for investigation of segmentation in the subduction processes. 2 figures.

New geological perspectives on earthquake recurrence models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwartz, D.P.

1997-01-01

In most areas of the world the record of historical seismicity is too short or uncertain to accurately characterize the future distribution of earthquakes of different sizes in time and space. Most faults have not ruptured once, let alone repeatedly. Ultimately, the ability to correctly forecast the magnitude, location, and probability of future earthquakes depends on how well one can quantify the past behavior of earthquake sources. Paleoseismological trenching of active faults, historical surface ruptures, liquefaction features, and shaking-induced ground deformation structures provides fundamental information on the past behavior of earthquake sources. These studies quantify (a) the timing of individual past earthquakes and fault slip rates, which lead to estimates of recurrence intervals and the development of recurrence models and (b) the amount of displacement during individual events, which allows estimates of the sizes of past earthquakes on a fault. When timing and slip per event are combined with information on fault zone geometry and structure, models that define individual rupture segments can be developed. Paleoseismicity data, in the form of timing and size of past events, provide a window into the driving mechanism of the earthquake engine--the cycle of stress build-up and release

Electrostatically actuated resonant switches for earthquake detection

KAUST Repository

Ramini, Abdallah H.

2013-04-01

The modeling and design of electrostatically actuated resonant switches (EARS) for earthquake and seismic applications are presented. The basic concepts are based on operating an electrically actuated resonator close to instability bands of frequency, where it is forced to collapse (pull-in) if operated within these bands. By careful tuning, the resonator can be made to enter the instability zone upon the detection of the earthquake signal, thereby pulling-in as a switch. Such a switching action can be functionalized for useful functionalities, such as shutting off gas pipelines in the case of earthquakes, or can be used to activate a network of sensors for seismic activity recording in health monitoring applications. By placing a resonator on a printed circuit board (PCB) of a natural frequency close to that of the earthquake\\'s frequency, we show significant improvement on the detection limit of the EARS lowering it considerably to less than 60% of the EARS by itself without the PCB. © 2013 IEEE.

A review of the rupture characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku-oki Mw 9.1 earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Lay, Thorne

2018-05-01

The 2011 March 11 Tohoku-oki great (Mw 9.1) earthquake ruptured the plate boundary megathrust fault offshore of northern Honshu with estimates of shallow slip of 50 m and more near the trench. Non-uniform slip extended 220 km across the width and 400 km along strike of the subduction zone. Extensive data provided by regional networks of seismic and geodetic stations in Japan and global networks of broadband seismic stations, regional and global ocean bottom pressure sensors and sea level measurement stations, seafloor GPS/Acoustic displacement sites, repeated multi-channel reflection images, extensive coastal runup and inundation observations, and in situ sampling of the shallow fault zone materials and temperature perturbation, make the event the best-recorded and most extensively studied great earthquake to date. An effort is made here to identify the more robust attributes of the rupture as well as less well constrained, but likely features. Other issues involve the degree to which the rupture corresponded to geodetically-defined preceding slip-deficit regions, the influence of re-rupture of slip regions for large events in the past few centuries, and relationships of coseismic slip to precursory slow slip, foreshocks, aftershocks, afterslip, and relocking of the megathrust. Frictional properties associated with the slip heterogeneity and in situ measurements of frictional heating of the shallow fault zone support low stress during shallow sliding and near-total shear stress drop of 10-30 MPa in large-slip regions in the shallow megathrust. The roles of fault morphology, sediments, fluids, and dynamical processes in the rupture behavior continue to be examined; consensus has not yet been achieved. The possibility of secondary sources of tsunami excitation such as inelastic deformation of the sedimentary wedge or submarine slumping remains undemonstrated; dislocation models in an elastic continuum appear to sufficiently account for most mainshock observations

The 2012 MW5.6 earthquake in the vicinity of the city of Sofia

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Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Aleksandrova, Irena; Dimitrova, Liliya; Popova, Iliana; Raykova, Plamena

2013-04-01

The territory of Bulgaria represents a typical example of high seismic risk area in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula. The neotectonic movements on the Balkan Peninsula were controlled by extensional collapse of the Late Alpin orogen, and were influenced by extension behind the Aegean arc and by the complicated vertical and horizontal movements in the Pannonian region. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia seismic zone that is the most populated (more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. Seismicity in the zone is related mainly to the marginal neotectonic faults of Sofia graben. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=IX-X MSK64. The 1858 earthquake caused heavy destruction in the town of Sofia and the appearance of thermal springs in the western part of the town. After a quiescence of about 50 years a strong event with M=6.5 occurred in 1905 near the western marginal part of the Sofia zone. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK64). The earthquake caused a lot of damages in the town and changed the capacity of the thermal mineral springs in Sofia and the surrounding villages. The earthquake was felt in an area of 50000 km2 and followed by aftershocks, which lasted more than one year. Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 hit Sofia seismic zone, on May 22nd, 2012, at 25 km south west of the city of Sofia. This shallow earthquake was largely felt in the region and up to Greece, FYROM, Serbia and Romania. No severe injuries have been reported so far, though

Seismic Attenuation Tomography of the Rupture Zone of the 2010 Maule, Chile, Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Torpey, M. E.; Russo, R. M.; Panning, M. P.

2014-12-01

We used measurements of differential S to P seismic attenuation in the rupture zone of the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake (33°S-38°S) to characterize the seismic attenuation structure of the South American crust and upper mantle wedge. We used data obtained from the IRIS CHAMP rapid-response temporary seismic network, filtered between 0.7-20 Hz. For events with large signal to noise ratios, we visually identified the P and S arrivals on the seismograms and used an evolving time window to determine 400 individual Qs and t* values and their uncertainties using a spectral ratio method. Using a phase pair method allows us to neglect the source-time function and instrument response of each P-S phase pair. Assuming a constant Qp/Qs ratio for a given P-S phase pair, we evaluated the 400 spectral ratios and discarded portions of the evolving time window that incorporate multipathed phases. We recalculated the Qs and standard deviation of the retained window and excluded measurements with standard deviations larger than half of the Qs value. We also excluded measurements that span frequency windows longer than 10 Hz as they contain noise that contaminates Qs measurements. We examined ~200 local events yielding a total of 1,076 path-integrated Q­s measurements. Qs values are low (100-400) for the majority of ray paths evaluated, however we observe a spatial distribution of low path-integrated Qs values (100-300) in the northeastern portion of the rupture zone and higher values (300-600) in the southwest. We divided the rupture zone into cubes and implemented a bounded linear inequality least squares inversion (0

Effects in Morocco of the Lisboa earthquake 1 November 1755

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levret, A.

1988-05-01

Within the framework of a cooperative agreement Sofratome/Office National d'Electricite of Morocco and Sofratome/Electricidade de Portugal, a study has been conducted as to the effects of the November 1, 1755 Lisbon earthquake in Morocco. This event, the effects of which have been described at length in Portugal, was likewise strongly felt in Morocco, especially on the Atlantic coast, which was laid waste not only through the direct agency of seismic waves, but also through that of a formidable tsunami. In old texts, the descriptions of these conjugate effects has been rendered with varying degrees of overstatement. The procedure adopted in order to arrive at a precise identification of the effects and their origin and an evaluation of intensity involves three stages: a) an assessment of the reliability of the documents used; b) a thoroughgoing analysis of the descriptions with the object of discriminating between the direct effects of the earthquake and those ascribable to the action of the tidal wave: c) a readjustment of the intensities by analysis of the global effects of the earthquake not only in Morocco but also in Portugal and Spain. Then a comparison of these with the well- documented effects of the recent, February 28, 1969 earthquake, originating at the same source. Extrapolated isoseismals for the effects in Morocco of the 1755 event derived from this study are then assigned. In the light of current knowledge concerning the historical seismicity of the Iberian African collision zone, an outline of the maximum observed intensities is proposed [fr

Distribution and migration of aftershocks of the 2010 Mw 7.4 Ogasawara Islands intraplate normal-faulting earthquake related to a fracture zone in the Pacific plate

Science.gov (United States)

Obana, Koichiro; Takahashi, Tsutomu; No, Tetsuo; Kaiho, Yuka; Kodaira, Shuichi; Yamashita, Mikiya; Sato, Takeshi; Nakamura, Takeshi

2014-04-01

describe the aftershocks of a Mw 7.4 intraplate normal-faulting earthquake that occurred 150 km east Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands, Japan, on 21 December 2010. It occurred beneath the outer trench slope of the Izu-Ogasawara trench, where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the Philippine Sea plate. Aftershock observations using ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) began soon after the earthquake and multichannel seismic reflection surveys were conducted across the aftershock area. Aftershocks were distributed in a NW-SE belt 140 km long, oblique to the N-S trench axis. They formed three subparallel lineations along a fracture zone in the Pacific plate. The OBS observations combined with data from stations on Chichi-jima and Haha-jima Islands revealed a migration of the aftershock activity. The first hour, which likely outlines the main shock rupture, was limited to an 80 km long area in the central part of the subsequent aftershock area. The first hour activity occurred mainly around, and appears to have been influenced by, nearby large seamounts and oceanic plateau, such as the Ogasawara Plateau and the Uyeda Ridge. Over the following days, the aftershocks expanded beyond or into these seamounts and plateau. The aftershock distribution and migration suggest that crustal heterogeneities related to a fracture zone and large seamounts and oceanic plateau in the incoming Pacific plate affected the rupture of the main shock. Such preexisting structures may influence intraplate normal-faulting earthquakes in other regions of plate flexure prior to subduction.

Physics of Earthquake Rupture Propagation

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Shiqing; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Sagy, Amir; Doan, Mai-Linh

2018-05-01

A comprehensive understanding of earthquake rupture propagation requires the study of not only the sudden release of elastic strain energy during co-seismic slip, but also of other processes that operate at a variety of spatiotemporal scales. For example, the accumulation of the elastic strain energy usually takes decades to hundreds of years, and rupture propagation and termination modify the bulk properties of the surrounding medium that can influence the behavior of future earthquakes. To share recent findings in the multiscale investigation of earthquake rupture propagation, we held a session entitled "Physics of Earthquake Rupture Propagation" during the 2016 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting in San Francisco. The session included 46 poster and 32 oral presentations, reporting observations of natural earthquakes, numerical and experimental simulations of earthquake ruptures, and studies of earthquake fault friction. These presentations and discussions during and after the session suggested a need to document more formally the research findings, particularly new observations and views different from conventional ones, complexities in fault zone properties and loading conditions, the diversity of fault slip modes and their interactions, the evaluation of observational and model uncertainties, and comparison between empirical and physics-based models. Therefore, we organize this Special Issue (SI) of Tectonophysics under the same title as our AGU session, hoping to inspire future investigations. Eighteen articles (marked with "this issue") are included in this SI and grouped into the following six categories.

Charles Darwin's earthquake reports

Science.gov (United States)

Galiev, Shamil

2010-05-01

problems which began to discuss only during the last time. Earthquakes often precede volcanic eruptions. According to Darwin, the earthquake-induced shock may be a common mechanism of the simultaneous eruptions of the volcanoes separated by long distances. In particular, Darwin wrote that ‘… the elevation of many hundred square miles of territory near Concepcion is part of the same phenomenon, with that splashing up, if I may so call it, of volcanic matter through the orifices in the Cordillera at the moment of the shock;…'. According to Darwin the crust is a system where fractured zones, and zones of seismic and volcanic activities interact. Darwin formulated the task of considering together the processes studied now as seismology and volcanology. However the difficulties are such that the study of interactions between earthquakes and volcanoes began only recently and his works on this had relatively little impact on the development of geosciences. In this report, we discuss how the latest data on seismic and volcanic events support the Darwin's observations and ideas about the 1835 Chilean earthquake. The material from researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474 is used. We show how modern mechanical tests from impact engineering and simple experiments with weakly-cohesive materials also support his observations and ideas. On the other hand, we developed the mathematical theory of the earthquake-induced catastrophic wave phenomena. This theory allow to explain the most important aspects the Darwin's earthquake reports. This is achieved through the simplification of fundamental governing equations of considering problems to strongly-nonlinear wave equations. Solutions of these equations are constructed with the help of analytic and numerical techniques. The solutions can model different strongly-nonlinear wave phenomena which generate in a variety of physical context. A comparison with relevant experimental observations is also presented.

Space Geodetic Observations and Modeling of 2016 Mw 5.9 Menyuan Earthquake: Implications on Seismogenic Tectonic Motion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongsheng Li

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Determining the relationship between crustal movement and faulting in thrust belts is essential for understanding the growth of geological structures and addressing the proposed models of a potential earthquake hazard. A Mw 5.9 earthquake occurred on 21 January 2016 in Menyuan, NE Qinghai Tibetan plateau. We combined satellite interferometry from Sentinel-1A Terrain Observation with Progressive Scans (TOPS images, historical earthquake records, aftershock relocations and geological data to determine fault seismogenic structural geometry and its relationship with the Lenglongling faults. The results indicate that the reverse slip of the 2016 earthquake is distributed on a southwest dipping shovel-shaped fault segment. The main shock rupture was initiated at the deeper part of the fault plane. The focal mechanism of the 2016 earthquake is quite different from that of a previous Ms 6.5 earthquake which occurred in 1986. Both earthquakes occurred at the two ends of a secondary fault. Joint analysis of the 1986 and 2016 earthquakes and aftershocks distribution of the 2016 event reveals an intense connection with the tectonic deformation of the Lenglongling faults. Both earthquakes resulted from the left-lateral strike-slip of the Lenglongling fault zone and showed distinct focal mechanism characteristics. Under the shearing influence, the normal component is formed at the releasing bend of the western end of the secondary fault for the left-order alignment of the fault zone, while the thrust component is formed at the restraining bend of the east end for the right-order alignment of the fault zone. Seismic activity of this region suggests that the left-lateral strike-slip of the Lenglongling fault zone plays a significant role in adjustment of the tectonic deformation in the NE Tibetan plateau.

Method to Determine Appropriate Source Models of Large Earthquakes Including Tsunami Earthquakes for Tsunami Early Warning in Central America

Science.gov (United States)

Tanioka, Yuichiro; Miranda, Greyving Jose Arguello; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Fujii, Yushiro

2017-08-01

Large earthquakes, such as the Mw 7.7 1992 Nicaragua earthquake, have occurred off the Pacific coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America and have generated distractive tsunamis along these coasts. It is necessary to determine appropriate fault models before large tsunamis hit the coast. In this study, first, fault parameters were estimated from the W-phase inversion, and then an appropriate fault model was determined from the fault parameters and scaling relationships with a depth dependent rigidity. The method was tested for four large earthquakes, the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2001 El Salvador earthquake (Mw7.7), the 2004 El Astillero earthquake (Mw7.0), and the 2012 El Salvador-Nicaragua earthquake (Mw7.3), which occurred off El Salvador and Nicaragua in Central America. The tsunami numerical simulations were carried out from the determined fault models. We found that the observed tsunami heights, run-up heights, and inundation areas were reasonably well explained by the computed ones. Therefore, our method for tsunami early warning purpose should work to estimate a fault model which reproduces tsunami heights near the coast of El Salvador and Nicaragua due to large earthquakes in the subduction zone.

Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

Science.gov (United States)

Schorlemmer, D.; Jordan, T. H.; Zechar, J. D.; Gerstenberger, M. C.; Wiemer, S.; Maechling, P. J.

2006-12-01

Earthquake prediction is one of the most difficult problems in physical science and, owing to its societal implications, one of the most controversial. The study of earthquake predictability has been impeded by the lack of an adequate experimental infrastructure---the capability to conduct scientific prediction experiments under rigorous, controlled conditions and evaluate them using accepted criteria specified in advance. To remedy this deficiency, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) is working with its international partners, which include the European Union (through the Swiss Seismological Service) and New Zealand (through GNS Science), to develop a virtual, distributed laboratory with a cyberinfrastructure adequate to support a global program of research on earthquake predictability. This Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) will extend the testing activities of SCEC's Working Group on Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models, from which we will present first results. CSEP will support rigorous procedures for registering prediction experiments on regional and global scales, community-endorsed standards for assessing probability-based and alarm-based predictions, access to authorized data sets and monitoring products from designated natural laboratories, and software to allow researchers to participate in prediction experiments. CSEP will encourage research on earthquake predictability by supporting an environment for scientific prediction experiments that allows the predictive skill of proposed algorithms to be rigorously compared with standardized reference methods and data sets. It will thereby reduce the controversies surrounding earthquake prediction, and it will allow the results of prediction experiments to be communicated to the scientific community, governmental agencies, and the general public in an appropriate research context.

Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2011-11-15

In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

Roman, Visigothic and Islamic evidence of earthquakes recorded in the archaeological site of “El Tolmo de Minateda” (Prebetic Zone, southeast of Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez-Pascua, M.A.; Abad Casal, L.; Pérez-López, R.; Gamo Parra, B.; Silva, P.G.; Garduño-Monroy, V.H.; Giner-Robles, J.L.; Perucha, M.A.; Israde-Alcántara, I.; Bischoff, J.; Calvo, J.P.

2013-01-01

The archaeological site of “El Tolmo de Minateda” is located within the Albacete province (SE of Spain) and shows a continuous time record of ancient civilizations from 3500 yr BP onwards. However, three temporal gaps were identified in this archaeological record, all of them in relationship with a sudden and unclear abandonment of the city (Centuries 1st, 7th and 9-10th). The Archaeological Earthquake Effects (EAEs) supports the possibility that moderate to strong earthquakes were the cause of such abandonments: oriented columns fallen, collapsed walls and arches, abandonment of irrigation systems and fresh-water supplies, crashed pottery, etc. Despite of the scarce of instrumental seismicity and a few historical chronicles, paleoseismic studies performed in the neighbouring zone (Tobarra) suggest the presence of closer seismic sources as faults (Pozohondo Fault) affecting Quaternary alluvial, lacustrine deposits and colluviums. In this work, we propose the possibility that three moderate earthquakes devastated the ancient Roman city of Ilunum (Century 1st AD), the Visigothic city of Elo (Century 7th AD) and the Islamic city of Madinat Iyih (Century 9th-10thAD), all of them the same place: “El Tolmo de Minateda”.

Temporal variation of gravity field prior to the Ludian Ms6.5 and Kangding Ms6.3 earthquakes

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Hongtao Hao

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Using mobile gravity data from the central area of Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, the relationship between gravity variation and earthquakes was studied based on the Ludian Ms6.5 earthquake that occurred on August 3rd, 2014, and the Kangding Ms6.3 earthquake that occurred on November 22nd, 2014; the mechanism of gravity variation was also explored. The results are as follows: (1 Prior to both earthquakes, gravity variation exhibited similar characteristics as those observed before both the Tangshan and Wenchuan earthquakes, in which typical precursor anomalies were positive gravity variation near the epicenter and the occurrence of a high-gravity-gradient zone across the epicenter prior to the earthquake. (2 A relatively accurate prediction of the occurrence locations of the two earthquakes was made by the Gravity Network Center of China (GNCC based on these precursor anomalies. In the gravity study report on the 2014 earthquake trends submitted at the end of 2013, the Daofu-Shimian section at the junction of the Xianshuihe and Longmenshan fault zones was noted as an earthquake-risk region with a predicted magnitude of 6.5, which covered the epicenter of the Kangding Ms6.3 earthquake. In another report on earthquake trends in southwestern China submitted in mid-2014, the Lianfeng, Zhaotong fault zone was also classified as an earthquake-risk region with a magnitude of 6.0, and the central area of this region basically overlapped with the epicenter of the Ludian Ms6.5 earthquake. (3 The gravity variation characteristics are reasonably consistent with crustal movements, and deep material migration is likely the primary cause of gravity variation.

What Googling Trends Tell Us About Public Interest in Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Y. J.; Maharjan, R.

2017-12-01

Previous studies have shown that immediately after large earthquakes, there is a period of increased public interest. This represents a window of opportunity for science communication and disaster relief fundraising efforts to reach more people. However, how public interest varies for different earthquakes has not been quantified systematically on a global scale. We analyze how global search interest for the term "earthquake" on Google varies following earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 5.5 from 2004 to 2016. We find that there is a spike in search interest after large earthquakes followed by an exponential temporal decay. Preliminary results suggest that the period of increased search interest scales with death toll and correlates with the period of increased media coverage. This suggests that the relationship between the period of increased public interest in earthquakes and death toll might be an effect of differences in media coverage. However, public interest never remains elevated for more than three weeks. Therefore, to take advantage of this short period of increased public interest, science communication and disaster relief fundraising efforts have to act promptly following devastating earthquakes.

Earthquake Triggering in the September 2017 Mexican Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.

2017-12-01

Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress

Dynamic rupture models of subduction zone earthquakes with off-fault plasticity

Science.gov (United States)

Wollherr, S.; van Zelst, I.; Gabriel, A. A.; van Dinther, Y.; Madden, E. H.; Ulrich, T.

2017-12-01

Modeling tsunami-genesis based on purely elastic seafloor displacement typically underpredicts tsunami sizes. Dynamic rupture simulations allow to analyse whether plastic energy dissipation is a missing rheological component by capturing the complex interplay of the rupture front, emitted seismic waves and the free surface in the accretionary prism. Strike-slip models with off-fault plasticity suggest decreasing rupture speed and extensive plastic yielding mainly at shallow depths. For simplified subduction geometries inelastic deformation on the verge of Coulomb failure may enhance vertical displacement, which in turn favors the generation of large tsunamis (Ma, 2012). However, constraining appropriate initial conditions in terms of fault geometry, initial fault stress and strength remains challenging. Here, we present dynamic rupture models of subduction zones constrained by long-term seismo-thermo-mechanical modeling (STM) without any a priori assumption of regions of failure. The STM model provides self-consistent slab geometries, as well as stress and strength initial conditions which evolve in response to tectonic stresses, temperature, gravity, plasticity and pressure (van Dinther et al. 2013). Coseismic slip and coupled seismic wave propagation is modelled using the software package SeisSol (www.seissol.org), suited for complex fault zone structures and topography/bathymetry. SeisSol allows for local time-stepping, which drastically reduces the time-to-solution (Uphoff et al., 2017). This is particularly important in large-scale scenarios resolving small-scale features, such as the shallow angle between the megathrust fault and the free surface. Our dynamic rupture model uses a Drucker-Prager plastic yield criterion and accounts for thermal pressurization around the fault mimicking the effect of pore pressure changes due to frictional heating. We first analyze the influence of this rheology on rupture dynamics and tsunamigenic properties, i.e. seafloor

Recognition of earthquake-prone nodes, a case study for North Vietnam (M ⩾ 5.0

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nguyen Huu Tuyen

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Morphostructural nodes in North Vietnam are delineated with the morphostructural zoning (MZ method, and classified into seismogenic and non-seismogenic nodes. The compiled morphostructural map (scale 1: 1000000 shows a three-level hierarchical structure of blocks, boundary zones, and nodes. The identified nodes are classified with the pattern-recognition algorithm CORA-3 into those that are prone to generate M ⩾ 5.0 earthquakes and those that are not. Some of the earthquake-prone nodes coincide with epicenters of M ⩾ 5.0 earthquakes that have occurred; others may coincide with such events in the future.

Earthquake number forecasts testing

Science.gov (United States)

Kagan, Yan Y.

2017-10-01

We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

Leveraging geodetic data to reduce losses from earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Jessica R.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Langbein, John O.; Leith, William S.; Minson, Sarah E.; Svarc, Jerry L.; Thatcher, Wayne R.

2018-04-23

event response products and by expanded use of geodetic imaging data to assess fault rupture and source parameters.Uncertainties in the NSHM, and in regional earthquake models, are reduced by fully incorporating geodetic data into earthquake probability calculations.Geodetic networks and data are integrated into the operations and earthquake information products of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS).Earthquake early warnings are improved by more rapidly assessing ground displacement and the dynamic faulting process for the largest earthquakes using real-time geodetic data.Methodology for probabilistic earthquake forecasting is refined by including geodetic data when calculating evolving moment release during aftershock sequences and by better understanding the implications of transient deformation for earthquake likelihood.A geodesy program that encompasses a balanced mix of activities to sustain missioncritical capabilities, grows new competencies through the continuum of fundamental to applied research, and ensures sufficient resources for these endeavors provides a foundation by which the EHP can be a leader in the application of geodesy to earthquake science. With this in mind the following objectives provide a framework to guide EHP efforts:Fully utilize geodetic information to improve key products, such as the NSHM and EEW, and to address new ventures like the USGS Subduction Zone Science Plan.Expand the variety, accuracy, and timeliness of post-earthquake information products, such as PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), through incorporation of geodetic observations.Determine if geodetic measurements of transient deformation can significantly improve estimates of earthquake probability.Maintain an observational strategy aligned with the target outcomes of this document that includes continuous monitoring, recording of ephemeral observations, focused data collection for use in research, and application-driven data processing and

Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization

Science.gov (United States)

Bock, Y.

2016-12-01

Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of

The Benefits and Limitations of Crowdsourced Information for Rapid Damage Assessment of Global Earthquakes

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Bossu, R.; Landès, M.; Roussel, F.

2017-12-01

The Internet has fastened the collection of felt reports and macroseismic data after global earthquakes. At the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC), where the traditional online questionnaires have been replace by thumbnail-based questionnaires, an average of half of the reports are collected within 10 minutes of an earthquake's occurrence. In regions where EMSC is well identified this goes down to 5 min. The user simply specifies the thumbnail corresponding to observed effects erasing languages barriers and improving collection via small smartphone screens. A previous study has shown that EMSC data is well correlated with "Did You Feel It" (DYFI) data and 3 independent, manually collected datasets. The efficiency and rapidity of felt report collection through thumbnail-based questionnaires does not necessarily mean that they offer a complete picture of the situation for all intensities values, especially the higher ones. There are several potential limitations. Demographics probably play a role but so might eyewitnesses' behaviors: it is probably not their priority to report when their own safety and that of their loved ones is at stake. We propose to test this hypothesis on EMSC felt reports and to extend the study to LastQuake smartphone application uses. LastQuake is a free smartphone app providing very rapid information on felt earthquakes. There are currently 210 000 active users around the world covering almost every country except for a few ones in Sub-Saharan Africa. Along with felt reports we also analyze the characteristics of LastQuake app launches. For both composite datasets created from 108 earthquakes, we analyze the rapidity of eyewitnesses' reaction and how it changes with intensity values and surmise how they reflect different types of behaviors. We will show the intrinsic limitations of crowdsourced information for rapid situation awareness. More importantly, we will show in which cases the lack of crowdsourced information could

Paleoseismic analysis of the San Vicente segment of the El Salvador Fault Zone, El Salvador, Central America

OpenAIRE

Canora Catalán, Carolina; Villamor Pérez, María Pilar; Martínez Díaz, José J.; Berryman, K.R.; Álvarez Gómez, José Antonio; Capote del Villar, Ramón; Hernández, Walter

2012-01-01

The El Salvador earthquake of February 13th 2001 (Mw 6.6) was associated with the tectonic rupture of the El Salvador Fault Zone. Paleoseismic studies of the El Salvador Fault Zone undertaken after this earthquake provide a basis for examining the longer history of surface rupturing earthquakes on the fault. Trenching at five sites along the San Vicente segment, a 21km-long and up to 2km-wide central section of the El Salvador Fault Zone, shows that surface fault rupture has occurred at least...

Earthquake and nuclear explosion location using the global seismic network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez, L.M.

1983-01-01

The relocation of nuclear explosions, aftershock sequence and regional seismicity is addressed by using joint hypocenter determination, Lomnitz' distance domain location, and origin time and earthquake depth determination with local observations. Distance domain and joint hypocenter location are used for a stepwise relocation of nuclear explosions in the USSR. The resulting origin times are 2.5 seconds earlier than those obtained by ISC. Local travel times from the relocated explosions are compared to Jeffreys-Bullen tables. P times are found to be faster at 9-30 0 distances, the largest deviation being around 10 seconds at 13-18 0 . At these distances S travel times also are faster by approximately 20 seconds. The 1977 Sumba earthquake sequence is relocated by iterative joint hypocenter determination of events with most station reports. Simultaneously determined station corrections are utilized for the relocation of smaller aftershocks. The relocated hypocenters indicate that the aftershocks were initially concentrated along the deep trench. Origin times and depths are recalculated for intermediate depth and deep earthquakes using local observations in and around the Japanese Islands. It is found that origin time and depth differ systematically from ISC values for intermediate depth events. Origin times obtained for events below the crust down to 100 km depth are earlier, whereas no general bias seem to exist for origin times of events in the 100-400 km depth range. The recalculated depths for earthquakes shallower than 100 km are shallower than ISC depths. The depth estimates for earthquakes deeper than 100 km were increased by the recalculations

Earthquake and nuclear explosion location using the global seismic network

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopez, L.M.

1983-01-01

The relocation of nuclear explosions, aftershock sequence and regional seismicity is addressed by using joint hypocenter determination, Lomnitz' distance domain location, and origin time and earthquake depth determination with local observations. Distance domain and joint hypocenter location are used for a stepwise relocation of nuclear explosions in the USSR. The resulting origin times are 2.5 seconds earlier than those obtained by ISC. Local travel times from the relocated explosions are compared to Jeffreys-Bullen tables. P times are found to be faster at 9-30/sup 0/ distances, the largest deviation being around 10 seconds at 13-18/sup 0/. At these distances S travel times also are faster by approximately 20 seconds. The 1977 Sumba earthquake sequence is relocated by iterative joint hypocenter determination of events with most station reports. Simultaneously determined station corrections are utilized for the relocation of smaller aftershocks. The relocated hypocenters indicate that the aftershocks were initially concentrated along the deep trench. Origin times and depths are recalculated for intermediate depth and deep earthquakes using local observations in and around the Japanese Islands. It is found that origin time and depth differ systematically from ISC values for intermediate depth events. Origin times obtained for events below the crust down to 100 km depth are earlier, whereas no general bias seem to exist for origin times of events in the 100-400 km depth range. The recalculated depths for earthquakes shallower than 100 km are shallower than ISC depths. The depth estimates for earthquakes deeper than 100 km were increased by the recalculations.

Geodetic Finite-Fault-based Earthquake Early Warning Performance for Great Earthquakes Worldwide

Science.gov (United States)

Ruhl, C. J.; Melgar, D.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

2017-12-01

GNSS-based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms estimate fault-finiteness and unsaturated moment magnitude for the largest, most damaging earthquakes. Because large events are infrequent, algorithms are not regularly exercised and insufficiently tested on few available datasets. The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) is a GNSS-based finite-fault algorithm developed as part of the ShakeAlert EEW system in the western US. Performance evaluations using synthetic earthquakes offshore Cascadia showed that G-larmS satisfactorily recovers magnitude and fault length, providing useful alerts 30-40 s after origin time and timely warnings of ground motion for onshore urban areas. An end-to-end test of the ShakeAlert system demonstrated the need for GNSS data to accurately estimate ground motions in real-time. We replay real data from several subduction-zone earthquakes worldwide to demonstrate the value of GNSS-based EEW for the largest, most damaging events. We compare predicted ground acceleration (PGA) from first-alert-solutions with those recorded in major urban areas. In addition, where applicable, we compare observed tsunami heights to those predicted from the G-larmS solutions. We show that finite-fault inversion based on GNSS-data is essential to achieving the goals of EEW.

Normal Faulting in the 1923 Berdún Earthquake and Postorogenic Extension in the Pyrenees

Science.gov (United States)

Stich, Daniel; Martín, Rosa; Batlló, Josep; Macià, Ramón; Mancilla, Flor de Lis; Morales, Jose

2018-04-01

The 10 July 1923 earthquake near Berdún (Spain) is the largest instrumentally recorded event in the Pyrenees. We recover old analog seismograms and use 20 hand-digitized waveforms for regional moment tensor inversion. We estimate moment magnitude Mw 5.4, centroid depth of 8 km, and a pure normal faulting source with strike parallel to the mountain chain (N292°E), dip of 66° and rake of -88°. The new mechanism fits into the general predominance of normal faulting in the Pyrenees and extension inferred from Global Positioning System data. The unique location of the 1923 earthquake, near the south Pyrenean thrust front, shows that the extensional regime is not confined to the axial zone where high topography and the crustal root are located. Together with seismicity near the northern mountain front, this indicates that gravitational potential energy in the western Pyrenees is not extracted locally but induces a wide distribution of postorogenic deformation.

Anomalous radon emanation at local and regional distances preceding earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone and adjacent areas of the central mid-continent of North America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steele, S.R.

1984-01-01

Anomalous soil-radon activity, including several spike-like surges over periods of 5, 2, and 2 1/2 months, and a year-long declining trend, preceded the most significant earthquakes of the central mid-continental region of North America during 1981 and early 1984. The observations of these events provide further evidence of (a) the existence of soil-radon anomalies precursory to the larger earthquakes in this intraplate region, (b) the utility of such anomalies in anticipating events of small to moderate magnitudes for the region, and (c) the occurrence of regional-scale strain events prior to some of the larger mid-continental earthquakes. A very recent radon anomaly, the strongest yet to be detected in the seven years of monitoring in the mid-continental region, occurred in the New Madrid seismic zone from mid-February through mid-June 1984. A 4.0 earthquake occurred one month after a peak in the radon activity. The amplitude and duration of the anomaly suggest that a significant change in the state of stress or strain may have occurred in the mid-continental region during 1984. (Auth.)

Resolution testing and limitations of geodetic and tsunami datasets for finite fault inversions along subduction zones

Science.gov (United States)

Williamson, A.; Newman, A. V.

2017-12-01

Finite fault inversions utilizing multiple datasets have become commonplace for large earthquakes pending data availability. The mixture of geodetic datasets such as Global Navigational Satellite Systems (GNSS) and InSAR, seismic waveforms, and when applicable, tsunami waveforms from Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) gauges, provide slightly different observations that when incorporated together lead to a more robust model of fault slip distribution. The merging of different datasets is of particular importance along subduction zones where direct observations of seafloor deformation over the rupture area are extremely limited. Instead, instrumentation measures related ground motion from tens to hundreds of kilometers away. The distance from the event and dataset type can lead to a variable degree of resolution, affecting the ability to accurately model the spatial distribution of slip. This study analyzes the spatial resolution attained individually from geodetic and tsunami datasets as well as in a combined dataset. We constrain the importance of distance between estimated parameters and observed data and how that varies between land-based and open ocean datasets. Analysis focuses on accurately scaled subduction zone synthetic models as well as analysis of the relationship between slip and data in recent large subduction zone earthquakes. This study shows that seafloor deformation sensitive datasets, like open-ocean tsunami waveforms or seafloor geodetic instrumentation, can provide unique offshore resolution for understanding most large and particularly tsunamigenic megathrust earthquake activity. In most environments, we simply lack the capability to resolve static displacements using land-based geodetic observations.

Disaster mitigation science for Earthquakes and Tsunamis -For resilience society against natural disasters-

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneda, Y.; Takahashi, N.; Hori, T.; Kawaguchi, K.; Isouchi, C.; Fujisawa, K.

2017-12-01

Destructive natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred frequently in the world. For instance, 2004 Sumatra Earthquake in Indonesia, 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake in China, 2010 Chile Earthquake and 2011 Tohoku Earthquake in Japan etc., these earthquakes generated very severe damages. For the reduction and mitigation of damages by destructive natural disasters, early detection of natural disasters and speedy and proper evacuations are indispensable. And hardware and software developments/preparations for reduction and mitigation of natural disasters are quite important. In Japan, DONET as the real time monitoring system on the ocean floor is developed and deployed around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone southwestern Japan. So, the early detection of earthquakes and tsunamis around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone will be expected by DONET. The integration of the real time data and advanced simulation researches will lead to reduce damages, however, in the resilience society, the resilience methods will be required after disasters. Actually, methods on restorations and revivals are necessary after natural disasters. We would like to propose natural disaster mitigation science for early detections, evacuations and restorations against destructive natural disasters. This means the resilience society. In natural disaster mitigation science, there are lots of research fields such as natural science, engineering, medical treatment, social science and literature/art etc. Especially, natural science, engineering and medical treatment are fundamental research fields for natural disaster mitigation, but social sciences such as sociology, geography and psychology etc. are very important research fields for restorations after natural disasters. Finally, to realize and progress disaster mitigation science, human resource cultivation is indispensable. We already carried out disaster mitigation science under `new disaster mitigation research project on Mega

Focused seismicity triggered by flank instability on Kīlauea's Southwest Rift Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Judson, Josiah; Thelen, Weston A.; Greenfield, Tim; White, Robert S.

2018-03-01

Swarms of earthquakes at the head of the Southwest Rift Zone on Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai´i, reveal an interaction of normal and strike-slip faulting associated with movement of Kīlauea's south flank. A relocated subset of earthquakes between January 2012 and August 2014 are highly focused in space and time at depths that are coincident with the south caldera magma reservoir beneath the southern margin of Kīlauea Caldera. Newly calculated focal mechanisms are dominantly dextral shear with a north-south preferred fault orientation. Two earthquakes within this focused area of seismicity have normal faulting mechanisms, indicating two mechanisms of failure in very close proximity (10's of meters to 100 m). We suggest a model where opening along the Southwest Rift Zone caused by seaward motion of the south flank permits injection of magma and subsequent freezing of a plug, which then fails in a right-lateral strike-slip sense, consistent with the direction of movement of the south flank. The seismicity is concentrated in an area where a constriction occurs between a normal fault and the deeper magma transport system into the Southwest Rift Zone. Although in many ways the Southwest Rift Zone appears analogous to the more active East Rift Zone, the localization of the largest seismicity (>M2.5) within the swarms to a small volume necessitates a different model than has been proposed to explain the lineament outlined by earthquakes along the East Rift Zone.

Foreshock occurrence before large earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Reasenberg, P.A.

1999-01-01

Rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured in two worldwide catalogs over ???20-year intervals. The overall rates observed are similar to ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California. The aftershock model was extended to the case of moderate foreshocks preceding large mainshocks. Overall, the observed worldwide foreshock rates exceed the extended California generic model by a factor of ???2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events, a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, had a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, had a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have found low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggests the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich. If this is so, then the California generic model may significantly underestimate the conditional probability for a very large (M ??? 8) earthquake following a potential (M ??? 7) foreshock in Cascadia. The magnitude differences among the identified foreshock-mainshock pairs in the Harvard catalog are consistent with a uniform

A prospective earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Eberhard, David A. J.; Zechar, J. Douglas; Wiemer, Stefan

2012-09-01

Since the beginning of 2009, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) has been conducting an earthquake forecast experiment in the western Pacific. This experiment is an extension of the Kagan-Jackson experiments begun 15 years earlier and is a prototype for future global earthquake predictability experiments. At the beginning of each year, seismicity models make a spatially gridded forecast of the number of Mw≥ 5.8 earthquakes expected in the next year. For the three participating statistical models, we analyse the first two years of this experiment. We use likelihood-based metrics to evaluate the consistency of the forecasts with the observed target earthquakes and we apply measures based on Student's t-test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare the forecasts. Overall, a simple smoothed seismicity model (TripleS) performs the best, but there are some exceptions that indicate continued experiments are vital to fully understand the stability of these models, the robustness of model selection and, more generally, earthquake predictability in this region. We also estimate uncertainties in our results that are caused by uncertainties in earthquake location and seismic moment. Our uncertainty estimates are relatively small and suggest that the evaluation metrics are relatively robust. Finally, we consider the implications of our results for a global earthquake forecast experiment.

Analysis of Global Solar Irradiance over Climatic Zones in Nigeria for Solar Energy Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adekunle Ayodotun Osinowo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Satellite derived solar irradiance over 25 locations in the 5 climatic zones of Nigeria (tropical rainforest TRF, Guinea savannah GS, Sahel savannah SHS, Sudan savannah SUS, and Mangrove swamp forest MSF was analyzed. To justify its use, the satellite data was tested for goodness of agreement with ground measured solar radiation data using 26-year mean monthly and daily data over 16 locations in the 5 climatic zones. The well-known R2, RMSE, MBE, and MPE statistical tests were used and good agreement was found. The 25 locations were grouped into the 5 climatic zones. Frequency distribution of global solar irradiance was done for each of the climatic zones. This showed that 46.88%, and 40.6% of the number of days (9794 over TRF and MSF, respectively, had irradiation within the range of 15.01–20.01 MJ/m2/day. For the GS, SHS, and SUS, 46.19%, 55.84% and 58.53% of the days had total irradiation within the range of 20.01–25.01 MJ/m2/day, respectively. Generally, in all the climatic zones, coefficients of variation of solar radiation were high and mean values were low in July and August. Contour maps showed that high and low values of global solar irradiance and clearness index were observed in the Northern and Southern locations of Nigeria, respectively.

Earthquakes and forecast reliability: thermoactivation and mesomechanics of the focal zone

Science.gov (United States)

Kalinnikov, I. I.; Manukin, A. B.; Matyunin, V. P.

2017-06-01

According to our data, the involvement of the fundamental laws of physics, in particular, consideration of an earthquake as a particular macroprocess with a peak together with the thermofluctuational activation of mechanical stresses in some environments, makes it possible to move beyond the traditional idea of the issue of earthquake prediction. Many formal parameters of statistical processing of the geophysical data can be provided with a physical sense related to the mesomechanics of structural changes in a stressed solid body. Measures for improving the efficiency of observations and their mathematical processing to solve the forecasting issues have been specified.

Tectonic styles of future earthquakes in Italy as input data for seismic hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Pondrelli, S.; Meletti, C.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.; D'Amico, V.; Pace, B.

2017-12-01

In a recent elaboration of a new seismogenic zonation and hazard model for Italy, we tried to understand how many indications we have on the tectonic style of future earthquake/rupture. Using all available or recomputed seismic moment tensors for relevant seismic events (Mw starting from 4.5) of the last 100 yrs, first arrival focal mechanisms for less recent earthquakes and also geological data on past activated faults, we collected a database gathering a thousands of data all over the Italian peninsula and regions around it. After several summations of seismic moment tensors, over regular grids of different dimensions and different thicknesses of the seismogenic layer, we applied the same procedure to each of the 50 area sources that were designed in the seismogenic zonation. The results for several seismic zones are very stable, e.g. along the southern Apennines we expect future earthquakes to be mostly extensional, although in the outer part of the chain strike-slip events are possible. In the Northern part of the Apennines we also expect different, opposite tectonic styles for different hypocentral depths. In several zones, characterized by a low seismic moment release, defined for the study region using 1000 yrs of catalog, the next possible tectonic style of future earthquakes is less clear. It is worth to note that for some zones the possible greatest earthquake could be not represented in the available observations. We also add to our analysis the computation of the seismic release rate, computed using a distributed completeness, identified for single great events of the historical seismic catalog for Italy. All these information layers, overlapped and compared, may be used to characterize each new seismogenic zone.

Spatial-temporal variation of low-frequency earthquake bursts near Parkfield, California

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chunquan; Guyer, Robert; Shelly, David R.; Trugman, D.; Frank, William; Gomberg, Joan S.; Johnson, P.

2015-01-01

Tectonic tremor (TT) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) have been found in the deeper crust of various tectonic environments globally in the last decade. The spatial-temporal behaviour of LFEs provides insight into deep fault zone processes. In this study, we examine recurrence times from a 12-yr catalogue of 88 LFE families with ∼730 000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in central California. We apply an automatic burst detection algorithm to the LFE recurrence times to identify the clustering behaviour of LFEs (LFE bursts) in each family. We find that the burst behaviours in the northern and southern LFE groups differ. Generally, the northern group has longer burst duration but fewer LFEs per burst, while the southern group has shorter burst duration but more LFEs per burst. The southern group LFE bursts are generally more correlated than the northern group, suggesting more coherent deep fault slip and relatively simpler deep fault structure beneath the locked section of SAF. We also found that the 2004 Parkfield earthquake clearly increased the number of LFEs per burst and average burst duration for both the northern and the southern groups, with a relatively larger effect on the northern group. This could be due to the weakness of northern part of the fault, or the northwesterly rupture direction of the Parkfield earthquake.

Recent Mega-Thrust Tsunamigenic Earthquakes and PTHA

Science.gov (United States)

Lorito, S.

2013-05-01

The occurrence of several mega-thrust tsunamigenic earthquakes in the last decade, including but not limited to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman, the 2010 Maule, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, has been a dramatic reminder of the limitations in our capability of assessing earthquake and tsunami hazard and risk. However, the increasingly high-quality geophysical observational networks allowed the retrieval of most accurate than ever models of the rupture process of mega-thrust earthquakes, thus paving the way for future improved hazard assessments. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) methodology, in particular, is less mature than its seismic counterpart, PSHA. Worldwide recent research efforts of the tsunami science community allowed to start filling this gap, and to define some best practices that are being progressively employed in PTHA for different regions and coasts at threat. In the first part of my talk, I will briefly review some rupture models of recent mega-thrust earthquakes, and highlight some of their surprising features that likely result in bigger error bars associated to PTHA results. More specifically, recent events of unexpected size at a given location, and with unexpected rupture process features, posed first-order open questions which prevent the definition of an heterogeneous rupture probability along a subduction zone, despite of several recent promising results on the subduction zone seismic cycle. In the second part of the talk, I will dig a bit more into a specific ongoing effort for improving PTHA methods, in particular as regards epistemic and aleatory uncertainties determination, and the computational PTHA feasibility when considering the full assumed source variability. Only logic trees are usually explicated in PTHA studies, accounting for different possible assumptions on the source zone properties and behavior. The selection of the earthquakes to be actually modelled is then in general made on a qualitative basis or remains implicit

Shortcomings of InSAR for studying megathrust earthquakes: The case of the M w 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

KAUST Repository

Feng, Guangcai

2012-05-28

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations are sometimes the only geodetic data of large subduction-zone earthquakes. However, these data usually suffer from spatially long-wavelength orbital and atmospheric errors that can be difficult to distinguish from the coseismic deformation and may therefore result in biased fault-slip inversions. To study how well InSAR constrains fault-slip of large subduction zone earthquakes, we use data of the 11 March 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw9.0) and test InSAR-derived fault-slip models against models constrained by GPS data from the extensive nationwide network in Japan. The coseismic deformation field was mapped using InSAR data acquired from multiple ascending and descending passes of the ALOS and Envisat satellites. We then estimated several fault-slip distribution models that were constrained using the InSAR data alone, onland and seafloor GPS/acoustic data, or combinations of the different data sets. Based on comparisons of the slip models, we find that there is no real gain by including InSAR observations for determining the fault slip distribution of this earthquake. That said, however, some of the main fault-slip patterns can be retrieved using the InSAR data alone when estimating long wavelength orbital/atmospheric ramps as a part of the modeling. Our final preferred fault-slip solution of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake is based only on the GPS data and has maximum reverse- and strike-slip of 36.0 m and 6.0 m, respectively, located northeast of the epicenter at a depth of 6 km, and has a total geodetic moment is 3.6 × 1022 Nm (Mw 9.01), similar to seismological estimates.

Technical NoteEarthquake dates and water level changes in wells in the Eskisehir region, Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Yuce

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Although satisfactory results have yet to be obtained in earthquake prediction, one of the most common indicators of an anomalous precursor is a change in groundwater level in existing wells. Further wells should thus be drilled in unconfined aquifers since these are more susceptible to seismic waves. The Eskisehir region lies in the transition zone between the Aegean extensional domain and the compressible northern Anatolian block. Limnigraphs, installed in 19 exploration wells in the Eskisehir region, recorded pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic level changes during the earthquakes of 17 August Izmit (Mw= 7.4 and 12 November Duzce (Mw= 7.2 1999 that occurred along the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The Izmit and Duzce earthquakes affected groundwater levels, especially in confined aquifers. The aquifer characteristics before and after the earthquakes were unchanged so the aquifer is elastic in its behaviour. Further detailed geo-mechanical investigation of the confined aquifer in the Eskisehir region may improve understanding of earthquake prediction. Keywords: earthquake prediction, Eskisehir, hydrological warning, monitoring groundwater levels

Structure and composition of the plate-boundary slip zone for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

Science.gov (United States)

Chester, Frederick M; Rowe, Christie; Ujiie, Kohtaro; Kirkpatrick, James; Regalla, Christine; Remitti, Francesca; Moore, J Casey; Toy, Virginia; Wolfson-Schwehr, Monica; Bose, Santanu; Kameda, Jun; Mori, James J; Brodsky, Emily E; Eguchi, Nobuhisa; Toczko, Sean

2013-12-06

The mechanics of great subduction earthquakes are influenced by the frictional properties, structure, and composition of the plate-boundary fault. We present observations of the structure and composition of the shallow source fault of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and tsunami from boreholes drilled by the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 343 and 343T. Logging-while-drilling and core-sample observations show a single major plate-boundary fault accommodated the large slip of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake rupture, as well as nearly all the cumulative interplate motion at the drill site. The localization of deformation onto a limited thickness (less than 5 meters) of pelagic clay is the defining characteristic of the shallow earthquake fault, suggesting that the pelagic clay may be a regionally important control on tsunamigenic earthquakes.

Remotely triggered seismicity in north China following the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Zhigang; Wang, Weijun; Chen, Qi-Fu; Jiang, Tao

2010-11-01

We conduct a systematic survey of remote triggering of earthquakes in north China following the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. We identify triggered earthquakes as impulsive seismic energies with clear P and S arrivals on 5 Hz high-pass-filtered three-component velocity seismograms during and immediately after the passage of teleseismic waves. We find clearly triggered seismic activity near the Babaoshan and Huangzhuang-Gaoliying faults southwest of Beijing, and near the aftershock zone of the 1976 M W 7.6 Tangshan earthquake. While several earthquakes occur during and immediately after the teleseismic waves in the aftershock zone of the 1975 M w 7.0 Haicheng earthquake, the change of seismicity is not significant enough to establish the direct triggering relationship. Our results suggest that intraplate regions with active faults associated with major earthquakes during historic or recent times are susceptible to remote triggering. We note that this does not always guarantee the triggering to occur, indicating that other conditions are needed. Since none of these regions is associated with any active geothermal or volcanic activity, we infer that dynamic triggering could be ubiquitous and occur in a wide range of tectonic environments.

Time-lapse imaging of fault properties at seismogenic depth using repeating earthquakes, active sources and seismic ambient noise

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Xin

2009-12-01

The time-varying stress field of fault systems at seismogenic depths plays the mort important role in controlling the sequencing and nucleation of seismic events. Using seismic observations from repeating earthquakes, controlled active sources and seismic ambient noise, five studies at four different fault systems across North America, Central Japan, North and mid-West China are presented to describe our efforts to measure such time dependent structural properties. Repeating and similar earthquakes are hunted and analyzed to study the post-seismic fault relaxation at the aftershock zone of the 1984 M 6.8 western Nagano and the 1976 M 7.8 Tangshan earthquakes. The lack of observed repeating earthquakes at western Nagano is attributed to the absence of a well developed weak fault zone, suggesting that the fault damage zone has been almost completely healed. In contrast, the high percentage of similar and repeating events found at Tangshan suggest the existence of mature fault zones characterized by stable creep under steady tectonic loading. At the Parkfield region of the San Andreas Fault, repeating earthquake clusters and chemical explosions are used to construct a scatterer migration image based on the observation of systematic temporal variations in the seismic waveforms across the occurrence time of the 2004 M 6 Parkfield earthquake. Coseismic fluid charge or discharge in fractures caused by the Parkfield earthquake is used to explain the observed seismic scattering properties change at depth. In the same region, a controlled source cross-well experiment conducted at SAFOD pilot and main holes documents two large excursions in the travel time required for a shear wave to travel through the rock along a fixed pathway shortly before two rupture events, suggesting that they may be related to pre-rupture stress induced changes in crack properties. At central China, a tomographic inversion based on the theory of seismic ambient noise and coda wave interferometry

Gas and Dust Phenomena of Mega-earthquakes and the Cause

Science.gov (United States)

Yue, Z.

2013-12-01

A mega-earthquake suddenly releases a large to extremely large amount of kinetic energy within a few tens to two hundreds seconds and over ten to hundreds kilometer distances in the Earth's crust and on ground surface. It also generates seismic waves that can be received globally and co-seismic ground damages such co-seismic ruptures and landslides. However, such vast, dramatic and devastating kinetic actions in the Earth's crustal rocks and on the ground soils cannot be known or predicted by people at few weeks, days, hours, or minutes before they are happening. Although seismologists can develop and use seismometers to report the locations and magnitudes of earthquakes within minutes of their occurrence, they cannot predict earthquakes at present. Therefore, damage earthquakes have caused and would continue to cause huge disasters, fatalities and injuries to our human beings. This problem may indicate that it is necessary to re-examine the cause of mega-earthquakes in addition to the conventional cause of active fault elastic rebounding. In the last ten years, many mega-earthquakes occurred in China and around the Pacific Ocean and caused many casualties to human beings and devastating disasters to environments. The author will give a brief review on the impacts of the mega-earthquakes happened in recent years. He will then present many gas and dust related phenomena associated with the sudden occurrences of these mega earthquakes. They include the 2001 Kunlunshan Earthquake M8.1, 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake M8.0 and the 2010 Yushu Earthquake M7.1 in China, the 2010 Haiti Earthquake M7.0, the 2010 Mexicali Earthquake M7.2, the 2010 Chile Earthquake M8.8, the 2011 Christchurch earthquake M6.3 and the 2011 Japan Earthquake M9.0 around the Pacific Ocean. He will discuss the cause of these gas and dust related phenomena. He will use these phenomena and their common cause to show that the earthquakes were caused the rapid migration and expansion of highly compressed and

Structural analysis of cataclastic rock of active fault damage zones: An example from Nojima and Arima-Takatsuki fault zones (SW Japan)

Science.gov (United States)

Satsukawa, T.; Lin, A.

2016-12-01

Most of the large intraplate earthquakes which occur as slip on mature active faults induce serious damages, in spite of their relatively small magnitudes comparing to subduction-zone earthquakes. After 1995 Kobe Mw7.2 earthquake, a number of studies have been done to understand the structure, physical properties and dynamic phenomenon of active faults. However, the deformation mechanics and related earthquake generating mechanism in the intraplate active fault zone are still poorly understood. The detailed, multi-scalar structural analysis of faults and of fault rocks has to be the starting point for reconstructing the complex framework of brittle deformation. Here, we present two examples of active fault damage zones: Nojima fault and Arima-Takatsuki active fault zone in the southwest Japan. We perform field investigations, combined with meso-and micro-structural analyses of fault-related rocks, which provide the important information in reconstructing the long-term seismic faulting behavior and tectonic environment. Our study shows that in both sites, damage zone is observed in over 10m, which is composed by the host rocks, foliated and non-foliated cataclasites, fault gouge and fault breccia. The slickenside striations in Asano fault, the splay fault of Nojima fault, indicate a dextral movement sense with some normal components. Whereas, those of Arima-Takatsuki active fault shows a dextral strike-slip fault with minor vertical component. Fault gouges consist of brown-gray matrix of fine grains and composed by several layers from few millimeters to a few decimeters. It implies that slip is repeated during millions of years, as the high concentration and physical interconnectivity of fine-grained minerals in brittle fault rocks produce the fault's intrinsic weakness in the crust. Therefore, faults rarely express only on single, discrete deformation episode, but are the cumulative result of several superimposed slip events.

GPS Versus Seismological Observations in two Seismogenic Zones in the Adria-Alps- Pannon System; Block Motion vs. Diffuse Deformation, Increased Earthquake Potential vs. Aseismic Slip

Science.gov (United States)

Grenerczy, G.; Bus, Z.; Toth, L.; Monus, P.

2008-12-01

The tectonic activity, seismicity and the associated seismic hazard is highly variable in the Adria-Alps-Pannon region. The engine of the system is the Adria microplate that compresses a puzzle of crustal blocks towards the European Platform. Based on seismicity and data of continuous and campaign style GPS measurements between 1991 and 2007 we investigated the existence of different blocks and their present kinematics. At the resolution and signal level we have, deformation seems to be more diffuse and block motion is no longer recognizable over the Pannonian basin towards the Carpathains. Although towards the basin seismicity decreases to moderate, the vulnerability is still high, as three capital cities are located near to the two most active seismic zones in this subregion. Each cities and their suburbs produce about 30- 40 % of the GDP of the respective countries. In the second par of our analysis these two seismically active areas, the Mur-Murz and Central Pannonian zones, are investigated. Uniform strain rates and relative displacements were calculated for these regions. The GPS data confirm the mostly left lateral strike slip character of the Mur-Murz fault zone and suggest a contraction between the eastward moving Alpine-North Pannonian unit and the Carpathians. The computation of the seismic strain rate was based on the Kostrov summation. The averaged unit norm seismic moment tensor, which describes the characteristic style of deformation, has been obtained by using the available focal mechanism solutions, whereas the annual seismic moment release showing the rate of the deformation was estimated using the catalogs of historical and recent earthquakes. Our analysis reveals that in both zones the geodetic strain rate is significantly larger than the seismic deformation. Based on the weakness of the lithosphere, the stress magnitudes and the regional features of seismicity, we suggest that the low value of the seismic/geodetic strain rate ratio in the

Radon, gas geochemistry, groundwater, and earthquakes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

King, Chi-Yu [Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corp., Tono Geoscience Center, Toki, Gifu (Japan)

1998-12-31

Radon monitoring in groundwater, soil air, and atmosphere has been continued in many seismic areas of the world for earthquake-prediction and active-fault studies. Some recent measurements of radon and other geochemical and hydrological parameters have been made for sufficiently long periods, with reliable instruments, and together with measurements of meteorological variables and solid-earth tides. The resultant data are useful in better distinguishing earthquake-related changes from various background noises. Some measurements have been carried out in areas where other geophysical measurements are being made also. Comparative studies of various kinds of geophysical data are helpful in ascertaining the reality of the earthquake-related and fault-related anomalies and in understanding the underlying mechanisms. Spatial anomalies of radon and other terrestrial gasses have been observed for many active faults. Such observations indicate that gas concentrations are very much site dependent, particularly on fault zones where terrestrial fluids may move vertically. Temporal anomalies have been reliably observed before and after some recent earthquakes, including the 1995 Kobe earthquake, and the general pattern of anomaly occurrence remains the same as observed before: They are recorded at only relatively few sensitive sites, which can be at much larger distances than expected from existing earthquake-source models. The sensitivity of a sensitive site is also found to be changeable with time. These results clearly show the inadequacy of the existing dilatancy-fluid diffusion and elastic-dislocation models for earthquake sources to explain earthquake-related geochemical and geophysical changes recorded at large distances. (J.P.N.)

Earthquake data base for Romania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rizescu, M.; Ghica, D.; Grecu, B.; Popa, M.; Borcia, I. S.

2002-01-01

A new earthquake database for Romania is being constructed, comprising complete earthquake information and being up-to-date, user-friendly and rapidly accessible. One main component of the database consists from the catalog of earthquakes occurred in Romania since 984 up to present. The catalog contains information related to locations and other source parameters, when available, and links to waveforms of important earthquakes. The other very important component is the 'strong motion database', developed for strong intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes where instrumental data were recorded. Different parameters to characterize strong motion properties as: effective peak acceleration, effective peak velocity, corner periods T c and T d , global response spectrum based intensities were computed and recorded into this database. Also, information on the recording seismic stations as: maps giving their positioning, photographs of the instruments and site conditions ('free-field or on buildings) are included. By the huge volume and quality of gathered data, also by its friendly user interface, the Romania earthquake data base provides a very useful tool for geosciences and civil engineering in their effort towards reducing seismic risk in Romania. (authors)

Lower crustal earthquakes in the North China Basin and implications for crustal rheology

Science.gov (United States)

Yuen, D. A.; Dong, Y.; Ni, S.; LI, Z.

2017-12-01

The North China Basin is a Mesozoic-Cenozoic continental rift basin on the eastern North China Craton. It is the central region of craton destruction, also a very seismically active area suffering severely from devastating earthquakes, such as the 1966 Xingtai M7.2 earthquake, the 1967 Hejian M6.3 earthquake, and the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquake. We found remarkable discrepancies of depth distribution among the three earthquakes, for instance, the Xingtai and Tangshan earthquakes are both upper-crustal earthquakes occurring between 9 and 15 km on depth, but the depth of the Hejian earthquake was reported of about 30 72 km, ranging from lowermost crust to upper mantle. In order to investigate the focal depth of earthquakes near Hejian area, we developed a method to resolve focal depth for local earthquakes occurring beneath sedimentary regions by P and S converted waves. With this method, we obtained well-resolved depths of 44 local events with magnitudes between M1.0 and M3.0 during 2008 to 2016 at the Hejian seismic zone, with a mean depth uncertainty of about 2 km. The depth distribution shows abundant earthquakes at depth of 20 km, with some events in the lower crust, but absence of seismicity deeper than 25 km. In particular, we aimed at deducing some constraints on the local crustal rheology from depth-frequency distribution. Therefore, we performed a comparison between the depth-frequency distribution and the crustal strength envelop, and found a good fit between the depth profile in the Hejian seismic zone and the yield strength envelop in the Baikal Rift Systems. As a conclusion, we infer that the seismogenic thickness is 25 km and the main deformation mechanism is brittle fracture in the North China Basin . And we made two hypotheses: (1) the rheological layering of dominant rheology in the North China Basin is similar to that of the Baikal Rift Systems, which can be explained with a quartz rheology at 0 10 km depth and a diabase rheology at 10 35 km

Vegetation root zone storage and rooting depth, derived from local calibration of a global hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

van der Ent, R.; Van Beek, R.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wang-Erlandsson, L.; Hessels, T.; Bastiaanssen, W.; Bierkens, M. F.

2017-12-01

The storage and dynamics of water in the root zone control many important hydrological processes such as saturation excess overland flow, interflow, recharge, capillary rise, soil evaporation and transpiration. These processes are parameterized in hydrological models or land-surface schemes and the effect on runoff prediction can be large. Root zone parameters in global hydrological models are very uncertain as they cannot be measured directly at the scale on which these models operate. In this paper we calibrate the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB using a state-of-the-art ensemble of evaporation fields derived by solving the energy balance for satellite observations. We focus our calibration on the root zone parameters of PCR-GLOBWB and derive spatial patterns of maximum root zone storage. We find these patterns to correspond well with previous research. The parameterization of our model allows for the conversion of maximum root zone storage to root zone depth and we find that these correspond quite well to the point observations where available. We conclude that climate and soil type should be taken into account when regionalizing measured root depth for a certain vegetation type. We equally find that using evaporation rather than discharge better allows for local adjustment of root zone parameters within a basin and thus provides orthogonal data to diagnose and optimize hydrological models and land surface schemes.

Slow Slip and Earthquake Nucleation in Meter-Scale Laboratory Experiments