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Sample records for earthquake zone global

  1. Global correlations between maximum magnitudes of subduction zone interface thrust earthquakes and physical parameters of subduction zones

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schellart, W. P.; Rawlinson, N.

    2013-01-01

    The maximum earthquake magnitude recorded for subduction zone plate boundaries varies considerably on Earth, with some subduction zone segments producing giant subduction zone thrust earthquakes (e.g. Chile, Alaska, Sumatra-Andaman, Japan) and others producing relatively small earthquakes (e.g.

  2. Comparison of earthquake source parameters and interseismic plate coupling variations in global subduction zones (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilek, S. L.; Moyer, P. A.; Stankova-Pursley, J.

    2010-12-01

    Geodetically determined interseismic coupling variations have been found in subduction zones worldwide. These coupling variations have been linked to heterogeneities in interplate fault frictional conditions. These connections to fault friction imply that observed coupling variations are also important in influencing details in earthquake rupture behavior. Because of the wealth of newly available geodetic models along many subduction zones, it is now possible to examine detailed variations in coupling and compare to seismicity characteristics. Here we use a large catalog of earthquake source time functions and slip models for moderate to large magnitude earthquakes to explore these connections, comparing earthquake source parameters with available models of geodetic coupling along segments of the Japan, Kurile, Kamchatka, Peru, Chile, and Alaska subduction zones. In addition, we use published geodetic results along the Costa Rica margin to compare with source parameters of small magnitude earthquakes recorded with an onshore-offshore network of seismometers. For the moderate to large magnitude earthquakes, preliminary results suggest a complex relationship between earthquake parameters and estimates of strongly and weakly coupled segments of the plate interface. For example, along the Kamchatka subduction zone, these earthquakes occur primarily along the transition between strong and weak coupling, with significant heterogeneity in the pattern of moment scaled duration with respect to the coupling estimates. The longest scaled duration event in this catalog occurred in a region of strong coupling. Earthquakes along the transition between strong and weakly coupled exhibited the most complexity in the source time functions. Use of small magnitude (0.5 earthquake spectra, with higher corner frequencies and higher mean apparent stress for earthquakes that occur in along the Osa Peninsula relative to the Nicoya Peninsula, mimicking the along-strike variations in

  3. Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Tom

    2002-09-01

    Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 earthquakes in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 from the Harvard centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near (defined as having shear stress change ∣Δτ∣ ≥ 0.01 MPa) the Ms ≥ 7.0 shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ˜39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, these triggered earthquakes obey an Omori law rate decay that lasts between ˜7-11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main shock centroid. Omori's law is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. If large triggered earthquakes habitually obey Omori's law, then their hazard can be more readily assessed. The characteristic rate change with time and spatial distribution can be used to rapidly assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following events of Ms ≥ 7.0. I show an example application to the M = 7.7 13 January 2001 El Salvador earthquake where use of global statistics appears to provide a better rapid hazard estimate than Coulomb stress change calculations.

  4. Wood-framed houses for earthquake zones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Klavs Feilberg

    Wood-framed houses with a sheathing are suitable for use in earthquake zones. The Direction describes a method of determining the earthquake forces in a house and shows how these forces can be resisted by diaphragm action in the walls, floors, and roof, of the house. An appendix explains how...

  5. Global earthquake fatalities and population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Savage, James C.

    2013-01-01

    Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes (>100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.

  6. Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid utilizing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Earthquake Catalog data of actual...

  7. Width of surface rupture zone for thrust earthquakes: implications for earthquake fault zoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boncio, Paolo; Liberi, Francesca; Caldarella, Martina; Nurminen, Fiia-Charlotta

    2018-01-01

    The criteria for zoning the surface fault rupture hazard (SFRH) along thrust faults are defined by analysing the characteristics of the areas of coseismic surface faulting in thrust earthquakes. Normal and strike-slip faults have been deeply studied by other authors concerning the SFRH, while thrust faults have not been studied with comparable attention. Surface faulting data were compiled for 11 well-studied historic thrust earthquakes occurred globally (5.4 ≤ M ≤ 7.9). Several different types of coseismic fault scarps characterize the analysed earthquakes, depending on the topography, fault geometry and near-surface materials (simple and hanging wall collapse scarps, pressure ridges, fold scarps and thrust or pressure ridges with bending-moment or flexural-slip fault ruptures due to large-scale folding). For all the earthquakes, the distance of distributed ruptures from the principal fault rupture (r) and the width of the rupture zone (WRZ) were compiled directly from the literature or measured systematically in GIS-georeferenced published maps. Overall, surface ruptures can occur up to large distances from the main fault ( ˜ 2150 m on the footwall and ˜ 3100 m on the hanging wall). Most of the ruptures occur on the hanging wall, preferentially in the vicinity of the principal fault trace ( > ˜ 50 % at distances guidelines). In the absence of such a very detailed study (basic SM, i.e. Level 1 SM of Italian guidelines) a width of ˜ 840 m (90 % probability from "simple thrust" database of distributed ruptures, excluding B-M, F-S and Sy fault ruptures) is suggested to be sufficiently precautionary. For more detailed SM, where the fault is carefully mapped, one must consider that the highest SFRH is concentrated in a narrow zone, ˜ 60 m in width, that should be considered as a fault avoidance zone (more than one-third of the distributed ruptures are expected to occur within this zone). The fault rupture hazard zones should be asymmetric compared to the trace

  8. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  9. Width of surface rupture zone for thrust earthquakes: implications for earthquake fault zoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Boncio

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The criteria for zoning the surface fault rupture hazard (SFRH along thrust faults are defined by analysing the characteristics of the areas of coseismic surface faulting in thrust earthquakes. Normal and strike–slip faults have been deeply studied by other authors concerning the SFRH, while thrust faults have not been studied with comparable attention. Surface faulting data were compiled for 11 well-studied historic thrust earthquakes occurred globally (5.4 ≤ M ≤ 7.9. Several different types of coseismic fault scarps characterize the analysed earthquakes, depending on the topography, fault geometry and near-surface materials (simple and hanging wall collapse scarps, pressure ridges, fold scarps and thrust or pressure ridges with bending-moment or flexural-slip fault ruptures due to large-scale folding. For all the earthquakes, the distance of distributed ruptures from the principal fault rupture (r and the width of the rupture zone (WRZ were compiled directly from the literature or measured systematically in GIS-georeferenced published maps. Overall, surface ruptures can occur up to large distances from the main fault ( ∼ 2150 m on the footwall and  ∼  3100 m on the hanging wall. Most of the ruptures occur on the hanging wall, preferentially in the vicinity of the principal fault trace ( >   ∼  50 % at distances  <   ∼  250 m. The widest WRZ are recorded where sympathetic slip (Sy on distant faults occurs, and/or where bending-moment (B-M or flexural-slip (F-S fault ruptures, associated with large-scale folds (hundreds of metres to kilometres in wavelength, are present. A positive relation between the earthquake magnitude and the total WRZ is evident, while a clear correlation between the vertical displacement on the principal fault and the total WRZ is not found. The distribution of surface ruptures is fitted with probability density functions, in order to define a criterion to

  10. Global variations of large megathrust earthquake rupture characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamori, Hiroo

    2018-01-01

    Despite the surge of great earthquakes along subduction zones over the last decade and advances in observations and analysis techniques, it remains unclear whether earthquake complexity is primarily controlled by persistent fault properties or by dynamics of the failure process. We introduce the radiated energy enhancement factor (REEF), given by the ratio of an event’s directly measured radiated energy to the calculated minimum radiated energy for a source with the same seismic moment and duration, to quantify the rupture complexity. The REEF measurements for 119 large [moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 to 9.2] megathrust earthquakes distributed globally show marked systematic regional patterns, suggesting that the rupture complexity is strongly influenced by persistent geological factors. We characterize this as the existence of smooth and rough rupture patches with varying interpatch separation, along with failure dynamics producing triggering interactions that augment the regional influences on large events. We present an improved asperity scenario incorporating both effects and categorize global subduction zones and great earthquakes based on their REEF values and slip patterns. Giant earthquakes rupturing over several hundred kilometers can occur in regions with low-REEF patches and small interpatch spacing, such as for the 1960 Chile, 1964 Alaska, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, or in regions with high-REEF patches and large interpatch spacing as in the case for the 2004 Sumatra and 1906 Ecuador-Colombia earthquakes. Thus, combining seismic magnitude Mw and REEF, we provide a quantitative framework to better represent the span of rupture characteristics of great earthquakes and to understand global seismicity. PMID:29750186

  11. Global Significant Earthquake Database, 2150 BC to present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Significant Earthquake Database is a global listing of over 5,700 earthquakes from 2150 BC to the present. A significant earthquake is classified as one that...

  12. The link between great earthquakes and the subduction of oceanic fracture zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. D. Müller

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Giant subduction earthquakes are known to occur in areas not previously identified as prone to high seismic risk. This highlights the need to better identify subduction zone segments potentially dominated by relatively long (up to 1000 yr and more recurrence times of giant earthquakes. We construct a model for the geometry of subduction coupling zones and combine it with global geophysical data sets to demonstrate that the occurrence of great (magnitude ≥ 8 subduction earthquakes is strongly biased towards regions associated with intersections of oceanic fracture zones and subduction zones. We use a computational recommendation technology, a type of information filtering system technique widely used in searching, sorting, classifying, and filtering very large, statistically skewed data sets on the Internet, to demonstrate a robust association and rule out a random effect. Fracture zone–subduction zone intersection regions, representing only 25% of the global subduction coupling zone, are linked with 13 of the 15 largest (magnitude Mw ≥ 8.6 and half of the 50 largest (magnitude Mw ≥ 8.4 earthquakes. In contrast, subducting volcanic ridges and chains are only biased towards smaller earthquakes (magnitude < 8. The associations captured by our statistical analysis can be conceptually related to physical differences between subducting fracture zones and volcanic chains/ridges. Fracture zones are characterised by laterally continuous, uplifted ridges that represent normal ocean crust with a high degree of structural integrity, causing strong, persistent coupling in the subduction interface. Smaller volcanic ridges and chains have a relatively fragile heterogeneous internal structure and are separated from the underlying ocean crust by a detachment interface, resulting in weak coupling and relatively small earthquakes, providing a conceptual basis for the observed dichotomy.

  13. Studying geodesy and earthquake hazard in and around the New Madrid Seismic Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Oliver Salz; Magistrale, Harold

    2011-01-01

    Workshop on New Madrid Geodesy and the Challenges of Understanding Intraplate Earthquakes; Norwood, Massachusetts, 4 March 2011 Twenty-six researchers gathered for a workshop sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and FM Global to discuss geodesy in and around the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) and its relation to earthquake hazards. The group addressed the challenge of reconciling current geodetic measurements, which show low present-day surface strain rates, with paleoseismic evidence of recent, relatively frequent, major earthquakes in the region. The workshop presentations and conclusions will be available in a forthcoming USGS open-file report (http://pubs.usgs.gov).

  14. Seismological investigation of earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herrmann, R.B.; Nguyen, B.

    1993-08-01

    Earthquake activity in the New Madrid Seismic Zone had been monitored by regional seismic networks since 1975. During this time period, over 3,700 earthquakes have been located within the region bounded by latitudes 35 degrees--39 degrees N and longitudes 87 degrees--92 degrees W. Most of these earthquakes occur within a 1.5 degrees x 2 degrees zone centered on the Missouri Bootheel. Source parameters of larger earthquakes in the zone and in eastern North America are determined using surface-wave spectral amplitudes and broadband waveforms for the purpose of determining the focal mechanism, source depth and seismic moment. Waveform modeling of broadband data is shown to be a powerful tool in defining these source parameters when used complementary with regional seismic network data, and in addition, in verifying the correctness of previously published focal mechanism solutions

  15. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  16. Evidence for strong Holocene earthquake(s) in the Wabash Valley seismic zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obermeier, S.

    1991-01-01

    Many small and slightly damaging earthquakes have taken place in the region of the lower Wabash River Valley of Indiana and Illinois during the 200 years of historic record. Seismologists have long suspected the Wabash Valley seismic zone to be capable of producing earthquakes much stronger than the largest of record (m b 5.8). The seismic zone contains the poorly defined Wabash Valley fault zone and also appears to contain other vaguely defined faults at depths from which the strongest earthquakes presently originate. Faults near the surface are generally covered with thick alluvium in lowlands and a veneer of loess in uplands, which make direct observations of faults difficult. Partly because of this difficulty, a search for paleoliquefaction features was begun in 1990. Conclusions of the study are as follows: (1) an earthquake much stronger than any historic earthquake struck the lower Wabash Valley between 1,500 and 7,500 years ago; (2) the epicentral region of the prehistoric strong earthquake was the Wabash Valley seismic zone; (3) apparent sites have been located where 1811-12 earthquake accelerations can be bracketed

  17. Dynamic triggering of low magnitude earthquakes in the Middle American Subduction Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escudero, C. R.; Velasco, A. A.

    2010-12-01

    We analyze global and Middle American Subduction Zone (MASZ) seismicity from 1998 to 2008 to quantify the transient stresses effects at teleseismic distances. We use the Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre Catalog (ISCCD) published by the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS). To identify MASZ seismicity changes due to distant, large (Mw >7) earthquakes, we first identify local earthquakes that occurred before and after the mainshocks. We then group the local earthquakes within a cluster radius between 75 to 200 km. We obtain statistics based on characteristics of both mainshocks and local earthquakes clusters, such as local cluster-mainshock azimuth, mainshock focal mechanism, and local earthquakes clusters within the MASZ. Due to lateral variations of the dip along the subducted oceanic plate, we divide the Mexican subduction zone in four segments. We then apply the Paired Samples Statistical Test (PSST) to the sorted data to identify increment, decrement or either in the local seismicity associated with distant large earthquakes. We identify dynamic triggering for all MASZ segments produced by large earthquakes emerging from specific azimuths, as well as, a decrease for some cases. We find no depend of seismicity changes due to focal mainshock mechanism.

  18. Links Between Earthquake Characteristics and Subducting Plate Heterogeneity in the 2016 Pedernales Ecuador Earthquake Rupture Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

  19. Investigation of the TEC Changes in the vicinity of the Earthquake Preparation Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulukavak, Mustafa; Yalcinkaya, Mualla

    2016-04-01

    Recently, investigation of the anomalies in the ionosphere before the earthquake has taken too much attention. The Total Electron Content (TEC) data has been used to monitor the changes in the ionosphere. Hence, researchers use the TEC changes before the strong earthquakes to monitor the anomalies in the ionosphere. In this study, the GPS-TEC variations, obtained from the GNSS stations in the vicinity of the earthquake preparation zone, was investigated. Nidra earthquake (M6.5), which was occurred on the north-west of Greece on November 17th, 2015 (38.755°N, 20.552°E), was selected for this study. First, the equation proposed by Dobrovolsky et al. (1979) was used to calculate the radius of the earthquake preparation zone. International GNSS Service (IGS) stations in the region were classified with respect to the radius of the earthquake preparation zone. The observation data of each station was obtained from the Crustal Dynamics Data and Information System (CDDIS) archive to estimate GPS-TEC variations between 16 October 2015 and 16 December 2015. Global Ionosphere Maps (GIM) products, obtained from the IGS, was used to check the robustness of the GPS-TEC variations. Possible anomalies were analyzed for each GNSS station by using the 15-day moving median method. In order to analyze these pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies, we investigated three indices (Kp, F10.7 and Dst) related to the space weather conditions between 16 October 2015 and 16 December 2015. Solar and geomagnetic indices were obtained from The Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), The Canadian Space Weather Forecast Centre (CSWFC), and the Data Analysis Center for Geomagnetism and Space Magnetism Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University (WDC). This study aims at investigating the possible effects of the earthquake on the TEC variations.

  20. Export Processing Zones and Global Class Formation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neveling, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    This chapter is concerned with one of the most striking developments in the global political economy of capitalism after the Second World War; the rise of export processing zones and special economic zones. Building on long-term ethnohistorical research on the zones’ global spread from one zone in

  1. Subduction zone earthquake probably triggered submarine hydrocarbon seepage offshore Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, David; José M., Mogollón; Michael, Strasser; Thomas, Pape; Gerhard, Bohrmann; Noemi, Fekete; Volkhard, Spiess; Sabine, Kasten

    2014-05-01

    Seepage of methane-dominated hydrocarbons is heterogeneous in space and time, and trigger mechanisms of episodic seep events are not well constrained. It is generally found that free hydrocarbon gas entering the local gas hydrate stability field in marine sediments is sequestered in gas hydrates. In this manner, gas hydrates can act as a buffer for carbon transport from the sediment into the ocean. However, the efficiency of gas hydrate-bearing sediments for retaining hydrocarbons may be corrupted: Hypothesized mechanisms include critical gas/fluid pressures beneath gas hydrate-bearing sediments, implying that these are susceptible to mechanical failure and subsequent gas release. Although gas hydrates often occur in seismically active regions, e.g., subduction zones, the role of earthquakes as potential triggers of hydrocarbon transport through gas hydrate-bearing sediments has hardly been explored. Based on a recent publication (Fischer et al., 2013), we present geochemical and transport/reaction-modelling data suggesting a substantial increase in upward gas flux and hydrocarbon emission into the water column following a major earthquake that occurred near the study sites in 1945. Calculating the formation time of authigenic barite enrichments identified in two sediment cores obtained from an anticlinal structure called "Nascent Ridge", we find they formed 38-91 years before sampling, which corresponds well to the time elapsed since the earthquake (62 years). Furthermore, applying a numerical model, we show that the local sulfate/methane transition zone shifted upward by several meters due to the increased methane flux and simulated sulfate profiles very closely match measured ones in a comparable time frame of 50-70 years. We thus propose a causal relation between the earthquake and the amplified gas flux and present reflection seismic data supporting our hypothesis that co-seismic ground shaking induced mechanical fracturing of gas hydrate-bearing sediments

  2. Detailed seismotectonic analysis of Sumatra subduction zone revealed by high precision earthquake location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagala, Ricardo Alfencius; Harjadi, P. J. Prih; Heryandoko, Nova; Sianipar, Dimas

    2017-07-01

    Sumatra was one of the most high seismicity regions in Indonesia. The subduction of Indo-Australian plate beneath Eurasian plate in western Sumatra contributes for many significant earthquakes that occur in this area. These earthquake events can be used to analyze the seismotectonic of Sumatra subduction zone and its system. In this study we use teleseismic double-difference method to obtain more high precision earthquake distribution in Sumatra subduction zone. We use a 3D nested regional-global velocity model. We use a combination of data from both of ISC (International Seismological Center) and BMKG (Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics, Indonesia). We successfully relocate about 6886 earthquakes that occur on period of 1981-2015. We consider that this new location is more precise than the regular bulletin. The relocation results show greatly reduced of RMS residual of travel time. Using this data, we can construct a new seismotectonic map of Sumatra. A well-built geometry of subduction slab, faults and volcano arc can be obtained from the new bulletin. It is also showed that at a depth of 140-170 km, there is many events occur as moderate-to-deep earthquakes, and we consider about the relation of the slab's events with volcanic arc and inland fault system. A reliable slab model is also built from regression equation using new relocated data. We also analyze the spatial-temporal of seismotectonic using b-value mapping that inspected in detail horizontally and vertically cross-section.

  3. The 2012 Mw5.6 earthquake in Sofia seismogenic zone - is it a slow earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykova, Plamena; Solakov, Dimcho; Slavcheva, Krasimira; Simeonova, Stela; Aleksandrova, Irena

    2017-04-01

    Recently our understanding of tectonic faulting has been shaken by the discoveries of seismic tremor, low frequency earthquakes, slow slip events, and other models of fault slip. These phenomenas represent models of failure that were thought to be non-existent and theoretically impossible only a few years ago. Slow earthquakes are seismic phenomena in which the rupture of geological faults in the earth's crust occurs gradually without creating strong tremors. Despite the growing number of observations of slow earthquakes their origin remains unresolved. Studies show that the duration of slow earthquakes ranges from a few seconds to a few hundred seconds. The regular earthquakes with which most people are familiar release a burst of built-up stress in seconds, slow earthquakes release energy in ways that do little damage. This study focus on the characteristics of the Mw5.6 earthquake occurred in Sofia seismic zone on May 22nd, 2012. The Sofia area is the most populated, industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The Sofia seismic zone is located in South-western Bulgaria - the area with pronounce tectonic activity and proved crustal movement. In 19th century the city of Sofia (situated in the centre of the Sofia seismic zone) has experienced two strong earthquakes with epicentral intensity of 10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK64).The 2012 quake occurs in an area characterized by a long quiescence (of 95 years) for moderate events. Moreover, a reduced number of small earthquakes have also been registered in the recent past. The Mw5.6 earthquake is largely felt on the territory of Bulgaria and neighbouring countries. No casualties and severe injuries have been reported. Mostly moderate damages were observed in the cities of Pernik and Sofia and their surroundings. These observations could be assumed indicative for a

  4. Controls on Earthquake Rupture and Triggering Mechanisms in Subduction Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    Honduras, the Tech Catholic Community, the MIT Warehouse Music Program, and the MIT Women’s Chorale. I’m extraordinarily grateful for my friends up in... Campos , 1995; Lay and Bilek, 2007]. Understanding this variation in earthquake occurrence in circum-Pacific subduction zones has been the subject of...Pacheco et al., 1993; Scholz and Campos , 1995; Abercrombie et al., 2001]. However, wide variability in seismogenic behavior exists not only between

  5. Double seismic zone for deep earthquakes in the izu-bonin subduction zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iidaka, T; Furukawa, Y

    1994-02-25

    A double seismic zone for deep earthquakes was found in the Izu-Bonin region. An analysis of SP-converted phases confirms that the deep seismic zone consists of two layers separated by approximately 20 kilometers. Numerical modeling of the thermal structure implies that the hypocenters are located along isotherms of 500 degrees to 550 degrees C, which is consistent with the hypothesis that deep earthquakes result from the phase transition of metastable olivine to a high-pressure phase in the subducting slab.

  6. Silica precipitation potentially controls earthquake recurrence in seismogenic zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saishu, Hanae; Okamoto, Atsushi; Otsubo, Makoto

    2017-10-17

    Silica precipitation is assumed to play a significant role in post-earthquake recovery of the mechanical and hydrological properties of seismogenic zones. However, the relationship between the widespread quartz veins around seismogenic zones and earthquake recurrence is poorly understood. Here we propose a novel model of quartz vein formation associated with fluid advection from host rocks and silica precipitation in a crack, in order to quantify the timescale of crack sealing. When applied to sets of extensional quartz veins around the Nobeoka Thrust of SW Japan, an ancient seismogenic splay fault, our model indicates that a fluid pressure drop of 10-25 MPa facilitates the formation of typical extensional quartz veins over a period of 6.6 × 10 0 -5.6 × 10 1 years, and that 89%-100% of porosity is recovered within ~3 × 10 2 years. The former and latter sealing timescales correspond to the extensional stress period (~3 × 10 1 years) and the recurrence interval of megaearthquakes in the Nankai Trough (~3 × 10 2 years), respectively. We therefore suggest that silica precipitation in the accretionary wedge controls the recurrence interval of large earthquakes in subduction zones.

  7. Earthquakes, fluid pressures and rapid subduction zone metamorphism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viete, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    High-pressure/low-temperature (HP/LT) metamorphism is commonly incomplete, meaning that large tracts of rock can remain metastable at blueschist- and eclogite-facies conditions for timescales up to millions of years [1]. When HP/LT metamorphism does take place, it can occur over extremely short durations (the role of fluids in providing heat for metamorphism [2] or catalyzing metamorphic reactions [1]. Earthquakes in subduction zone settings can occur to depths of 100s of km. Metamorphic dehydration and the associated development of elevated pore pressures in HP/LT metamorphic rocks has been identified as a cause of earthquake activity at such great depths [3-4]. The process of fracturing/faulting significantly increases rock permeability, causing channelized fluid flow and dissipation of pore pressures [3-4]. Thus, deep subduction zone earthquakes are thought to reflect an evolution in fluid pressure, involving: (1) an initial increase in pore pressure by heating-related dehydration of subduction zone rocks, and (2) rapid relief of pore pressures by faulting and channelized flow. Models for earthquakes at depth in subduction zones have focussed on the in situ effects of dehydration and then sudden escape of fluids from the rock mass following fracturing [3-4]. On the other hand, existing models for rapid and incomplete metamorphism in subduction zones have focussed only on the effects of heating and/or hydration with the arrival of external fluids [1-2]. Significant changes in pressure over very short timescales should result in rapid mineral growth and/or disequilibrium texture development in response to overstepping of mineral reaction boundaries. The repeated process of dehydration-pore pressure development-earthquake-pore pressure relief could conceivably produce a record of episodic HP/LT metamorphism driven by rapid pressure pulses. A new hypothesis is presented for the origins of HP/LT metamorphism: that HP/LT metamorphism is driven by effective pressure

  8. Rapid, Robust Characterization of Subduction Zone Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Tisha Christine

    Energy is an important factor in international relations and recently the global energy paradigm has been seen to be shifting towards the East. In light of such change, a comparative assessment of the role of energy in Qatar' East Asian foreign relations will be conducted by taking China, Japan and South Korea as case studies. The research aimed to assess each of the bilateral relationship in terms of their origin and development in the energy sector generating an interpretation of their growing interdependence, taking into consideration the various domestic, regional and international influencing factors. At this level, LNG development and trade was adopted to see the extent of energy cooperation. In general, energy cooperation played the leading role in the three relationships, but to different degrees. Furthermore, all three bilateral relationship pertain to the 'complex interdependence approach' that is supported by the use of institutionalism and soft power.

  9. Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, A.D.; Applegate, D.; Tuttle, M.P.; Williams, R.A.

    2009-01-01

    There is broad agreement in the scientific community that a continuing concern exists for a major destructive earthquake in the New Madrid seismic zone. Many structures in Memphis, Tenn., St. Louis, Mo., and other communities in the central Mississippi River Valley region are vulnerable and at risk from severe ground shaking. This assessment is based on decades of research on New Madrid earthquakes and related phenomena by dozens of Federal, university, State, and consulting earth scientists. Considerable interest has developed recently from media reports that the New Madrid seismic zone may be shutting down. These reports stem from published research using global positioning system (GPS) instruments with results of geodetic measurements of strain in the Earth's crust. Because of a lack of measurable strain at the surface in some areas of the seismic zone over the past 14 years, arguments have been advanced that there is no buildup of stress at depth within the New Madrid seismic zone and that the zone may no longer pose a significant hazard. As part of the consensus-building process used to develop the national seismic hazard maps, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) convened a workshop of experts in 2006 to evaluate the latest findings in earthquake hazards in the Eastern United States. These experts considered the GPS data from New Madrid available at that time that also showed little to no ground movement at the surface. The experts did not find the GPS data to be a convincing reason to lower the assessment of earthquake hazard in the New Madrid region, especially in light of the many other types of data that are used to construct the hazard assessment, several of which are described here.

  10. Statistical characteristics of seismo-ionospheric GPS TEC disturbances prior to global Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes (1998-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Munawar; Jin, Shuanggen

    2015-12-01

    Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies are still challenging and unclear to obtain and understand, particularly for different earthquake magnitudes and focal depths as well as types of fault. In this paper, the seismo-ionospheric disturbances (SID) related to global earthquakes with 1492 Mw ≥ 5.0 from 1998 to 2014 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC) of GPS global ionosphere maps (GIM). Statistical analysis of 10-day TEC data before global Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes shows significant enhancement 5 days before an earthquake of Mw ≥ 6.0 at a 95% confidence level. Earthquakes with a focal depth of less than 60 km and Mw ≥ 6.0 are presumably the root of deviation in the ionospheric TEC because earthquake breeding zones have gigantic quantities of energy at shallower focal depths. Increased anomalous TEC is recorded in cumulative percentages beyond Mw = 5.5. Sharpness in cumulative percentages is evident in seismo-ionospheric disturbance prior to Mw ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Seismo-ionospheric disturbances related to strike slip and thrust earthquakes are noticeable for magnitude Mw6.0-7.0 earthquakes. The relative values reveal high ratios (up to 2) and low ratios (up to -0.5) within 5 days prior to global earthquakes for positive and negative anomalies. The anomalous patterns in TEC related to earthquakes are possibly due to the coupling of high amounts of energy from earthquake breeding zones of higher magnitude and shallower focal depth.

  11. Earthquake Complex Network applied along the Chilean Subduction Zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, F.; Pasten, D.; Comte, D.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years the earthquake complex networks have been used as a useful tool to describe and characterize the behavior of seismicity. The earthquake complex network is built in space, dividing the three dimensional space in cubic cells. If the cubic cell contains a hypocenter, we call this cell like a node. The connections between nodes follows the time sequence of the occurrence of the seismic events. In this sense, we have a spatio-temporal configuration of a specific region using the seismicity in that zone. In this work, we are applying complex networks to characterize the subduction zone along the coast of Chile using two networks: a directed and an undirected network. The directed network takes in consideration the time-direction of the connections, that is very important for the connectivity of the network: we are considering the connectivity, ki of the i-th node, like the number of connections going out from the node i and we add the self-connections (if two seismic events occurred successive in time in the same cubic cell, we have a self-connection). The undirected network is the result of remove the direction of the connections and the self-connections from the directed network. These two networks were building using seismic data events recorded by CSN (Chilean Seismological Center) in Chile. This analysis includes the last largest earthquakes occurred in Iquique (April 2014) and in Illapel (September 2015). The result for the directed network shows a change in the value of the critical exponent along the Chilean coast. The result for the undirected network shows a small-world behavior without important changes in the topology of the network. Therefore, the complex network analysis shows a new form to characterize the Chilean subduction zone with a simple method that could be compared with another methods to obtain more details about the behavior of the seismicity in this region.

  12. Stress triggering of earthquakes and subsidence in the Louisiana coastal zone due to hydrocarbon production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallman, Ellen P.

    This thesis presents contributions towards better understanding of the interaction between earthquakes through elastic stress triggering and the role of hydrocarbon production on subsidence and land loss in southern Louisiana. The first issue addressed in this thesis is that of the role of static stress changes on earthquake triggering. The first study investigated whether observed changes in seismicity rate following the 1992 Landers, California and 1995 Kobe, Japan earthquakes are accurately predicted by elastic Coulomb stress transfer models. The analyses found that for all the tested DeltaCFS models wherever seismicity rate changes could be resolved the rate increased regardless of whether the DeltaCFS theoretically promoted or inhibited failure. The second study the common definition of a stress shadow was extended to independently test the stress shadow hypothesis using a global catalog of seismicity. The analyses indicated that while stress shadows are subtle, they are present in the global catalog. It also explains why "classical" stress shadows, similar to what was observed following the 1906 San Francisco earthquake are rarely observed for individual main shocks. The second issue addressed in this thesis is the role of hydrocarbon production on subsidence and land loss in the Louisiana Coastal Zone. The two studies in this thesis extend previous work by modeling the effect of oil and gas production in the region in two ways. First, multiple producing oil and gas fields and multiple epochs of leveling data are considered to provide constraints on predicted subsidence. Second, the role of compaction of the reservoir bounding shales on the regional subsidence signal is included. The results of the two studies on the role of hydrocarbon production on subsidence in the Louisiana Coastal Zone indicate that regional models of subsidence must include the effects of production-induced subsidence due to both sands and shales, but that this can not account for the

  13. Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Emily; Spence, Robin

    2013-01-01

    Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

  14. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

    2012-01-17

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  15. Width of the Surface Rupture Zone for Thrust Earthquakes and Implications for Earthquake Fault Zoning: Chi-Chi 1999 and Wenchuan 2008 Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boncio, P.; Caldarella, M.

    2016-12-01

    We analyze the zones of coseismic surface faulting along thrust faults, whit the aim of defining the most appropriate criteria for zoning the Surface Fault Rupture Hazard (SFRH) along thrust faults. Normal and strike-slip faults were deeply studied in the past, while thrust faults were not studied with comparable attention. We analyze the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan (Mw 7.6) and 2008 Wenchuan, China (Mw 7.9) earthquakes. Several different types of coseismic fault scarps characterize the two earthquakes, depending on the topography, fault geometry and near-surface materials. For both the earthquakes, we collected from the literature, or measured in GIS-georeferenced published maps, data about the Width of the coseismic Rupture Zone (WRZ). The frequency distribution of WRZ compared to the trace of the main fault shows that the surface ruptures occur mainly on and near the main fault. Ruptures located away from the main fault occur mainly in the hanging wall. Where structural complexities are present (e.g., sharp bends, step-overs), WRZ is wider then for simple fault traces. We also fitted the distribution of the WRZ dataset with probability density functions, in order to define a criterion to remove outliers (e.g., by selecting 90% or 95% probability) and define the zone where the probability of SFRH is the highest. This might help in sizing the zones of SFRH during seismic microzonation (SM) mapping. In order to shape zones of SFRH, a very detailed earthquake geologic study of the fault is necessary. In the absence of such a very detailed study, during basic (First level) SM mapping, a width of 350-400 m seems to be recommended (95% of probability). If the fault is carefully mapped (higher level SM), one must consider that the highest SFRH is concentrated in a narrow zone, 50 m-wide, that should be considered as a "fault-avoidance (or setback) zone". These fault zones should be asymmetric. The ratio of footwall to hanging wall (FW:HW) calculated here ranges from 1:5 to 1:3.

  16. Extending the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Instrumental Catalogue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Giacomo, Domenico; Engdhal, Bob; Storchak, Dmitry; Villaseñor, Antonio; Harris, James

    2015-04-01

    After a 27-month project funded by the GEM Foundation (www.globalquakemodel.org), in January 2013 we released the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900 2009) (www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/index.php) as a special product to use for seismic hazard studies. The new catalogue was necessary as improved seismic hazard studies necessitate that earthquake catalogues are homogeneous (to the largest extent possible) over time in their fundamental parameters, such as location and magnitude. Due to time and resource limitation, the ISC-GEM catalogue (1900-2009) included earthquakes selected according to the following time-variable cut-off magnitudes: Ms=7.5 for earthquakes occurring before 1918; Ms=6.25 between 1918 and 1963; and Ms=5.5 from 1964 onwards. Because of the importance of having a reliable seismic input for seismic hazard studies, funding from GEM and two commercial companies in the US and UK allowed us to start working on the extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue both for earthquakes that occurred beyond 2009 and for earthquakes listed in the International Seismological Summary (ISS) which fell below the cut-off magnitude of 6.25. This extension is part of a four-year program that aims at including in the ISC-GEM catalogue large global earthquakes that occurred before the beginning of the ISC Bulletin in 1964. In this contribution we present the updated ISC GEM catalogue, which will include over 1000 more earthquakes that occurred in 2010 2011 and several hundreds more between 1950 and 1959. The catalogue extension between 1935 and 1949 is currently underway. The extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue will also be helpful for regional cross border seismic hazard studies as the ISC-GEM catalogue should be used as basis for cross-checking the consistency in location and magnitude of those earthquakes listed both in the ISC GEM global catalogue and regional catalogues.

  17. Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Earle, Paul S.; Porter, Keith A.; Hearne, Mike

    2011-01-01

    Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.

  18. Estimation of recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone based on seismic moment accumulation/release model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Junjie; Zhang, Shimin

    2013-01-01

    Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF). However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3) × 10¹⁷ N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

  19. Estimation of Recurrence Interval of Large Earthquakes on the Central Longmen Shan Fault Zone Based on Seismic Moment Accumulation/Release Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junjie Ren

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Recurrence interval of large earthquake on an active fault zone is an important parameter in assessing seismic hazard. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9 occurred on the central Longmen Shan fault zone and ruptured the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF and the Guanxian-Jiangyou fault (GJF. However, there is a considerable discrepancy among recurrence intervals of large earthquake in preseismic and postseismic estimates based on slip rate and paleoseismologic results. Post-seismic trenches showed that the central Longmen Shan fault zone probably undertakes an event similar to the 2008 quake, suggesting a characteristic earthquake model. In this paper, we use the published seismogenic model of the 2008 earthquake based on Global Positioning System (GPS and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR data and construct a characteristic seismic moment accumulation/release model to estimate recurrence interval of large earthquakes on the central Longmen Shan fault zone. Our results show that the seismogenic zone accommodates a moment rate of (2.7 ± 0.3 × 1017 N m/yr, and a recurrence interval of 3900 ± 400 yrs is necessary for accumulation of strain energy equivalent to the 2008 earthquake. This study provides a preferred interval estimation of large earthquakes for seismic hazard analysis in the Longmen Shan region.

  20. A global earthquake discrimination scheme to optimize ground-motion prediction equation selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Daniel; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Michael

    2012-01-01

    We present a new automatic earthquake discrimination procedure to determine in near-real time the tectonic regime and seismotectonic domain of an earthquake, its most likely source type, and the corresponding ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) class to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Global ShakeMap system. This method makes use of the Flinn–Engdahl regionalization scheme, seismotectonic information (plate boundaries, global geology, seismicity catalogs, and regional and local studies), and the source parameters available from the USGS National Earthquake Information Center in the minutes following an earthquake to give the best estimation of the setting and mechanism of the event. Depending on the tectonic setting, additional criteria based on hypocentral depth, style of faulting, and regional seismicity may be applied. For subduction zones, these criteria include the use of focal mechanism information and detailed interface models to discriminate among outer-rise, upper-plate, interface, and intraslab seismicity. The scheme is validated against a large database of recent historical earthquakes. Though developed to assess GMPE selection in Global ShakeMap operations, we anticipate a variety of uses for this strategy, from real-time processing systems to any analysis involving tectonic classification of sources from seismic catalogs.

  1. Earthquake source parameters along the Hellenic subduction zone and numerical simulations of historical tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay

    2012-04-01

    We studied source mechanism parameters and slip distributions of earthquakes with Mw ≥ 5.0 occurred during 2000-2008 along the Hellenic subduction zone by using teleseismic P- and SH-waveform inversion methods. In addition, the major and well-known earthquake-induced Eastern Mediterranean tsunamis (e.g., 365, 1222, 1303, 1481, 1494, 1822 and 1948) were numerically simulated and several hypothetical tsunami scenarios were proposed to demonstrate the characteristics of tsunami waves, propagations and effects of coastal topography. The analogy of current plate boundaries, earthquake source mechanisms, various earthquake moment tensor catalogues and several empirical self-similarity equations, valid for global or local scales, were used to assume conceivable source parameters which constitute the initial and boundary conditions in simulations. Teleseismic inversion results showed that earthquakes along the Hellenic subduction zone can be classified into three major categories: [1] focal mechanisms of the earthquakes exhibiting E-W extension within the overriding Aegean plate; [2] earthquakes related to the African-Aegean convergence; and [3] focal mechanisms of earthquakes lying within the subducting African plate. Normal faulting mechanisms with left-lateral strike slip components were observed at the eastern part of the Hellenic subduction zone, and we suggest that they were probably concerned with the overriding Aegean plate. However, earthquakes involved in the convergence between the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean lithospheres indicated thrust faulting mechanisms with strike slip components, and they had shallow focal depths (h < 45 km). Deeper earthquakes mainly occurred in the subducting African plate, and they presented dominantly strike slip faulting mechanisms. Slip distributions on fault planes showed both complex and simple rupture propagations with respect to the variation of source mechanism and faulting geometry. We calculated low stress drop

  2. Multivariate statistical analysis to investigate the subduction zone parameters favoring the occurrence of giant megathrust earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brizzi, S.; Sandri, L.; Funiciello, F.; Corbi, F.; Piromallo, C.; Heuret, A.

    2018-03-01

    The observed maximum magnitude of subduction megathrust earthquakes is highly variable worldwide. One key question is which conditions, if any, favor the occurrence of giant earthquakes (Mw ≥ 8.5). Here we carry out a multivariate statistical study in order to investigate the factors affecting the maximum magnitude of subduction megathrust earthquakes. We find that the trench-parallel extent of subduction zones and the thickness of trench sediments provide the largest discriminating capability between subduction zones that have experienced giant earthquakes and those having significantly lower maximum magnitude. Monte Carlo simulations show that the observed spatial distribution of giant earthquakes cannot be explained by pure chance to a statistically significant level. We suggest that the combination of a long subduction zone with thick trench sediments likely promotes a great lateral rupture propagation, characteristic of almost all giant earthquakes.

  3. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  4. Rapid estimation of the economic consequences of global earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, operational since mid 2007, rapidly estimates the most affected locations and the population exposure at different levels of shaking intensities. The PAGER system has significantly improved the way aid agencies determine the scale of response needed in the aftermath of an earthquake. For example, the PAGER exposure estimates provided reasonably accurate assessments of the scale and spatial extent of the damage and losses following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9) in China, the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3) in Italy, the 2010 Haiti earthquake (Mw 7.0), and the 2010 Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8). Nevertheless, some engineering and seismological expertise is often required to digest PAGER's exposure estimate and turn it into estimated fatalities and economic losses. This has been the focus of PAGER's most recent development. With the new loss-estimation component of the PAGER system it is now possible to produce rapid estimation of expected fatalities for global earthquakes (Jaiswal and others, 2009). While an estimate of earthquake fatalities is a fundamental indicator of potential human consequences in developing countries (for example, Iran, Pakistan, Haiti, Peru, and many others), economic consequences often drive the responses in much of the developed world (for example, New Zealand, the United States, and Chile), where the improved structural behavior of seismically resistant buildings significantly reduces earthquake casualties. Rapid availability of estimates of both fatalities and economic losses can be a valuable resource. The total time needed to determine the actual scope of an earthquake disaster and to respond effectively varies from country to country. It can take days or sometimes weeks before the damage and consequences of a disaster can be understood both socially and economically. The objective of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system is

  5. Has El Salvador Fault Zone produced M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes? The 1719 El Salvador earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canora, C.; Martínez-Díaz, J.; Álvarez-Gómez, J.; Villamor, P.; Ínsua-Arévalo, J.; Alonso-Henar, J.; Capote, R.

    2013-05-01

    Historically, large earthquakes, Mw ≥ 7.0, in the Εl Salvador area have been attributed to activity in the Cocos-Caribbean subduction zone. Τhis is correct for most of the earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.5. However, recent paleoseismic evidence points to the existence of large earthquakes associated with rupture of the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, an Ε-W oriented strike slip fault system that extends for 150 km through central Εl Salvador. Τo calibrate our results from paleoseismic studies, we have analyzed the historical seismicity of the area. In particular, we suggest that the 1719 earthquake can be associated with paleoseismic activity evidenced in the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone. Α reinterpreted isoseismal map for this event suggests that the damage reported could have been a consequence of the rupture of Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, rather than rupture of the subduction zone. Τhe isoseismal is not different to other upper crustal earthquakes in similar tectonovolcanic environments. We thus challenge the traditional assumption that only the subduction zone is capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 in this region. Τhis result has broad implications for future risk management in the region. Τhe potential occurrence of strong ground motion, significantly higher and closer to the Salvadorian populations that those assumed to date, must be considered in seismic hazard assessment studies in this area.

  6. Bridge seismic retrofit measures considering subduction zone earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-01

    Over the years, earthquakes have exposed the vulnerability of reinforced concrete structures under : seismic loads. The recent occurrence of highly devastating earthquakes near instrumented regions, e.g. 2010 Maule, Chile : and 2011 Tohoku, Japan, ha...

  7. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-01-01

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  8. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-03-01

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  9. Frictional properties of JFAST core samples and implications for slow earthquakes at the Tohoku subduction zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sawai, Michiyo; Niemeijer, André R.; Hirose, Takehiro; Spiers, Christopher J.

    2017-01-01

    Slow earthquakes occur in the shallow (<20 km deep) part of the Tohoku subduction zone. To understand how frictional properties of the plate boundary fault affect the generation of these slow earthquakes, we conducted friction experiments using borehole samples retrieved from the plate boundary

  10. How complete is the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Catalog?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    The International Seismological Centre, in collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model effort, has released a new global earthquake catalog, covering the time period from 1900 through the end of 2009. In order to use this catalog for global earthquake studies, I determined the magnitude of completeness (Mc) as a function of time by dividing the earthquakes shallower than 60 km into 7 time periods based on major changes in catalog processing and data availability and applying 4 objective methods to determine Mc, with uncertainties determined by non-parametric bootstrapping. Deeper events were divided into 2 time periods. Due to differences between the 4 methods, the final Mc was determined subjectively by examining the features that each method focused on in both the cumulative and binned magnitude frequency distributions. The time periods and Mc values for shallow events are: 1900-1917, Mc=7.7; 1918-1939, Mc=7.0; 1940-1954, Mc=6.8; 1955-1963, Mc=6.5; 1964-1975, Mc=6.0; 1976-2003, Mc=5.8; and 2004-2009, Mc=5.7. Using these Mc values for the longest time periods they are valid for (e.g. 1918-2009, 1940-2009,…) the shallow data fits a Gutenberg-Richter distribution with b=1.05 and a=8.3, within 1 standard deviation, with no declustering. The exception is for time periods that include 1900-1917 in which there are only 33 events with M≥ Mc and for those few data b=2.15±0.46. That result calls for further investigations for this time period, ideally having a larger number of earthquakes. For deep events, the results are Mc=7.1 for 1900-1963, although the early data are problematic; and Mc=5.7 for 1964-2009. For that later time period, b=0.99 and a=7.3.

  11. Aftereffects of Subduction-Zone Earthquakes: Potential Tsunami Hazards along the Japan Sea Coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minoura, Koji; Sugawara, Daisuke; Yamanoi, Tohru; Yamada, Tsutomu

    2015-10-01

    The 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake is a typical subduction-zone earthquake and is the 4th largest earthquake after the beginning of instrumental observation of earthquakes in the 19th century. In fact, the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake displaced the northeast Japan island arc horizontally and vertically. The displacement largely changed the tectonic situation of the arc from compressive to tensile. The 9th century in Japan was a period of natural hazards caused by frequent large-scale earthquakes. The aseismic tsunamis that inflicted damage on the Japan Sea coast in the 11th century were related to the occurrence of massive earthquakes that represented the final stage of a period of high seismic activity. Anti-compressive tectonics triggered by the subduction-zone earthquakes induced gravitational instability, which resulted in the generation of tsunamis caused by slope failing at the arc-back-arc boundary. The crustal displacement after the 2011 earthquake infers an increased risk of unexpected local tsunami flooding in the Japan Sea coastal areas.

  12. Interaction of the san jacinto and san andreas fault zones, southern california: triggered earthquake migration and coupled recurrence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, C O

    1993-05-14

    Two lines of evidence suggest that large earthquakes that occur on either the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) or the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) may be triggered by large earthquakes that occur on the other. First, the great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake in the SAFZ seems to have triggered a progressive sequence of earthquakes in the SJFZ. These earthquakes occurred at times and locations that are consistent with triggering by a strain pulse that propagated southeastward at a rate of 1.7 kilometers per year along the SJFZ after the 1857 earthquake. Second, the similarity in average recurrence intervals in the SJFZ (about 150 years) and in the Mojave segment of the SAFZ (132 years) suggests that large earthquakes in the northern SJFZ may stimulate the relatively frequent major earthquakes on the Mojave segment. Analysis of historic earthquake occurrence in the SJFZ suggests little likelihood of extended quiescence between earthquake sequences.

  13. Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and

  14. Global biogeochemical provinces of the mesopelagic zone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reygondeau, Gabriel; Guidi, Lionel; Beaugrand, Gregory

    2018-01-01

    Aim: Following the biogeographical approach implemented by Longhurst for the epipelagic layer, we propose here to identify a biogeochemical 3-D partition for the mesopelagic layer. The resulting partition characterizes the main deep environmental biotopes and their vertical boundaries on a global...... scale, which can be used as a geographical and ecological framework for conservation biology, ecosystem-based management and for the design of oceanographic investigations. Location: The global ocean. Methods: Based on the most comprehensive environmental climatology available to date, which is both...... of the mesopelagic layer. Results: First, we show via numerical interpretation that the vertical division of the pelagic zone varies and, hence, is not constant throughout the global ocean. Indeed, a latitudinal gradient is found between the epipelagic-mesopelagic and mesopelagic-bathypelagic vertical limits. Second...

  15. Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Vitor; Jaiswal, Kishor; Weatherill, Graeme; Crowley, Helen

    2014-01-01

    Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

  16. Spatial Distribution of earthquakes off the coast of Fukushima Two Years after the M9 Earthquake: the Southern Area of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Rupture Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, T.; Nakahigashi, K.; Shinohara, M.; Mochizuki, K.; Shiobara, H.

    2014-12-01

    Huge earthquakes cause vastly stress field change around the rupture zones, and many aftershocks and other related geophysical phenomenon such as geodetic movements have been observed. It is important to figure out the time-spacious distribution during the relaxation process for understanding the giant earthquake cycle. In this study, we pick up the southern rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M9.0). The seismicity rate keeps still high compared with that before the 2011 earthquake. Many studies using ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) have been doing since soon after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in order to obtain aftershock activity precisely. Here we show one of the studies at off the coast of Fukushima which is located on the southern part of the rupture area caused by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. We deployed 4 broadband type OBSs (BBOBSs) and 12 short-period type OBSs (SOBS) in August 2012. Other 4 BBOBSs attached with absolute pressure gauges and 20 SOBSs were added in November 2012. We recovered 36 OBSs including 8 BBOBSs in November 2013. We selected 1,000 events in the vicinity of the OBS network based on a hypocenter catalog published by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and extracted the data after time corrections caused by each internal clock. Each P and S wave arrival times, P wave polarity and maximum amplitude were picked manually on a computer display. We assumed one dimensional velocity structure based on the result from an active source experiment across our network, and applied time corrections every station for removing ambiguity of the assumed structure. Then we adopted a maximum-likelihood estimation technique and calculated the hypocenters. The results show that intensive activity near the Japan Trench can be seen, while there was a quiet seismic zone between the trench zone and landward high activity zone.

  17. Global volcanic earthquake swarm database and preliminary analysis of volcanic earthquake swarm duration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. McNutt

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available Global data from 1979 to 1989 pertaining to volcanic earthquake swarms have been compiled into a custom-designed relational database. The database is composed of three sections: 1 a section containing general information on volcanoes, 2 a section containing earthquake swarm data (such as dates of swarm occurrence and durations, and 3 a section containing eruption information. The most abundant and reliable parameter, duration of volcanic earthquake swarms, was chosen for preliminary analysis. The distribution of all swarm durations was found to have a geometric mean of 5.5 days. Precursory swarms were then separated from those not associated with eruptions. The geometric mean precursory swarm duration was 8 days whereas the geometric mean duration of swarms not associated with eruptive activity was 3.5 days. Two groups of precursory swarms are apparent when duration is compared with the eruption repose time. Swarms with durations shorter than 4 months showed no clear relationship with the eruption repose time. However, the second group, lasting longer than 4 months, showed a significant positive correlation with the log10 of the eruption repose period. The two groups suggest that different suites of physical processes are involved in the generation of volcanic earthquake swarms.

  18. Analysis of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. F. Peng

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies that occurred before the global M = 7.0+ earthquakes in 2010 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC from the global ionosphere map (GIM. We analyze the possible causes of the ionospheric anomalies based on the space environment and magnetic field status. Results show that some anomalies are related to the earthquakes. By analyzing the time of occurrence, duration, and spatial distribution of these ionospheric anomalies, a number of new conclusions are drawn, as follows: earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies are not bound to appear; both positive and negative anomalies are likely to occur; and the earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies discussed in the current study occurred 0–2 days before the associated earthquakes and in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 12:00 and 20:00 local time. Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies occur mainly in areas near the epicenter. However, the maximum affected area in the ionosphere does not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter of the subsequent earthquake. The directions deviating from the epicenters do not follow a fixed rule. The corresponding ionospheric effects can also be observed in the magnetically conjugated region. However, the probability of the anomalies appearance and extent of the anomalies in the magnetically conjugated region are smaller than the anomalies near the epicenter. Deep-focus earthquakes may also exhibit very significant pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies.

  19. A new reference global instrumental earthquake catalogue (1900-2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Giacomo, D.; Engdahl, B.; Bondar, I.; Storchak, D. A.; Villasenor, A.; Bormann, P.; Lee, W.; Dando, B.; Harris, J.

    2011-12-01

    For seismic hazard studies on a global and/or regional scale, accurate knowledge of the spatial distribution of seismicity, the magnitude-frequency relation and the maximum magnitudes is of fundamental importance. However, such information is normally not homogeneous (or not available) for the various seismically active regions of the Earth. To achieve the GEM objectives (www.globalquakemodel.org) of calculating and communicating earthquake risk worldwide, an improved reference global instrumental catalogue for large earthquakes spanning the entire 100+ years period of instrumental seismology is an absolute necessity. To accomplish this task, we apply the most up-to-date techniques and standard observatory practices for computing the earthquake location and magnitude. In particular, the re-location procedure benefits both from the depth determination according to Engdahl and Villaseñor (2002), and the advanced technique recently implemented at the ISC (Bondár and Storchak, 2011) to account for correlated error structure. With regard to magnitude, starting from the re-located hypocenters, the classical surface and body-wave magnitudes are determined following the new IASPEI standards and by using amplitude-period data of phases collected from historical station bulletins (up to 1970), which were not available in digital format before the beginning of this work. Finally, the catalogue will provide moment magnitude values (including uncertainty) for each seismic event via seismic moment, via surface wave magnitude or via other magnitude types using empirical relationships. References Engdahl, E.R., and A. Villaseñor (2002). Global seismicity: 1900-1999. In: International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, eds. W.H.K. Lee, H. Kanamori, J.C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger, Part A, 665-690, Academic Press, San Diego. Bondár, I., and D. Storchak (2011). Improved location procedures at the International Seismological Centre, Geophys. J. Int., doi:10.1111/j

  20. A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

    2017-01-01

    Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

  1. Meeting the Challenge of Earthquake Risk Globalisation: Towards the Global Earthquake Model GEM (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zschau, J.

    2009-04-01

    Earthquake risk, like natural risks in general, has become a highly dynamic and globally interdependent phenomenon. Due to the "urban explosion" in the Third World, an increasingly complex cross linking of critical infrastructure and lifelines in the industrial nations and a growing globalisation of the world's economies, we are presently facing a dramatic increase of our society's vulnerability to earthquakes in practically all seismic regions on our globe. Such fast and global changes cannot be captured with conventional earthquake risk models anymore. The sciences in this field are, therefore, asked to come up with new solutions that are no longer exclusively aiming at the best possible quantification of the present risks but also keep an eye on their changes with time and allow to project these into the future. This does not apply to the vulnerablity component of earthquake risk alone, but also to its hazard component which has been realized to be time-dependent, too. The challenges of earthquake risk dynamics and -globalisation have recently been accepted by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD - GSF) who initiated the "Global Earthquake Model (GEM)", a public-private partnership for establishing an independent standard to calculate, monitor and communicate earthquake risk globally, raise awareness and promote mitigation.

  2. Empirical ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes and their application to Cascadia and other regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, G.M.; Boore, D.M.

    2003-01-01

    Ground-motion relations for earthquakes that occur in subduction zones are an important input to seismic-hazard analyses in many parts of the world. In the Cascadia region (Washington, Oregon, northern California, and British Columbia), for example, there is a significant hazard from megathrust earthquakes along the subduction interface and from large events within the subducting slab. These hazards are in addition to the hazard from shallow earthquakes in the overlying crust. We have compiled a response spectra database from thousands of strong-motion recordings from events of moment magnitude (M) 5-8.3 occurring in subduction zones around the world, including both interface and in-slab events. The 2001 M 6.8 Nisqually and 1999 M 5.9 Satsop earthquakes are included in the database, as are many records from subduction zones in Japan (Kyoshin-Net data), Mexico (Guerrero data), and Central America. The size of the database is four times larger than that available for previous empirical regressions to determine ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes. The large dataset enables improved determination of attenuation parameters and magnitude scaling, for both interface and in-slab events. Soil response parameters are also better determined by the data. We use the database to develop global ground-motion relations for interface and in-slab earthquakes, using a maximum likelihood regression method. We analyze regional variability of ground-motion amplitudes across the global database and find that there are significant regional differences. In particular, amplitudes in Cascadia differ by more than a factor of 2 from those in Japan for the same magnitude, distance, event type, and National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) soil class. This is believed to be due to regional differences in the depth of the soil profile, which are not captured by the NEHRP site classification scheme. Regional correction factors to account for these differences are

  3. Air quality in developing world disaster and conflict zones--the case of post-earthquake Haiti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Mary E; Rappaport, Ann

    2014-10-15

    Data on air quality are remarkably limited in the poorest of the world's countries. This is especially true for post-conflict and disaster zones, where international relief efforts focus largely on more salient public health challenges such as water and sanitation, infectious diseases, and housing. Using post-earthquake Haiti as the example case, this commentary explores air quality challenges in the developing world, highlighting concerns related to infrastructure damage from post-conflict and disaster settings. We contend that there is a growing and presently unmet need for further research and attention from the global health community to address these issues. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. What role did the Hikurangi subduction zone play in the M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, L. M.; Hamling, I. J.; Kaneko, Y.; Fry, B.; Clark, K.; Bannister, S. C.; Ellis, S. M.; Francois-Holden, C.; Hreinsdottir, S.; Mueller, C.

    2017-12-01

    The 2016 M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake ruptured at least a dozen faults in the northern South Island of New Zealand, within the transition from the Hikurangi subduction zone (in the North Island) to the transpressive Alpine Fault (in the central South Island). The role that the southern end of the Hikurangi subduction zone played (or did not play) in the Kaikoura earthquake remains one of the most controversial aspects of this spectacularly complex earthquake. Investigations using near-field seismological and geodetic data suggest a dominantly crustal faulting source for the event, while studies relying on teleseismic data propose that a large portion of the moment release is due to rupture of the Hikurangi subduction interface beneath the northern South Island. InSAR and GPS data also show that a large amount of afterslip (up to 0.5 m) occurred on the subduction interface beneath the crustal faults that ruptured in the M7.8 earthquake, during the months following the earthquake. Modeling of GPS velocities for the 20 year period prior to the earthquake indicate that interseismic coupling was occurring on the Hikurangi subduction interface beneath the northern South Island, in a similar location to the suggested coseismic and postseismic slip on the subduction interface. We will integrate geodetic, seismological, tsunami, and geological observations in an attempt to balance the seemingly conflicting views from local and teleseismic data regarding the role that the southern Hikurangi subduction zone played in the earthquake. We will also discuss the broader implications of the observed coseismic and postseismic deformation for understanding the kinematics of the southern termination of the Hikurangi subduction zone, and its role in the transition from subduction to strike-slip in the central New Zealand region.

  5. Repeating Deep Very Low Frequency Earthquakes: An Evidence of Transition Zone between Brittle and Ductile Zone along Plate Boundary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishihara, Y.; Yamamoto, Y.; Arai, R.

    2017-12-01

    Recently slow or low frequency seismic and geodetic events are focused under recognition of important role in tectonic process. The most western region of Ryukyu trench, Yaeyama Islands, is very active area of these type events. It has semiannual-like slow slip (Heki et.al., 2008; Nishimura et.al.,2014) and very frequent shallow very low frequency earthquakes near trench zone (Ando et.al.,2012; Nakamura et.al.,2014). Arai et.al.(2016) identified clear reverse phase discontinuity along plate boundary by air-gun survey, suggesting existence of low velocity layer including fluid. The subducting fluid layer is considered to control slip characteristics. On the other hand, deep low frequency earthquake and tremor observed at south-western Honshu and Shikoku of Japan are not identified well due to lack of high-quality seismic network. A broadband seismic station(ISG/PS) of Pacific21 network is operating in last 20 years that locates on occurrence potential area of low frequency earthquake. We tried to review continuous broadband record, searching low frequency earthquakes. In pilot survey, we found three very low frequency seismic events which are dominant in less than 0.1Hz component and are not listed in earthquake catalogue. Source locates about 50km depth and at transition area between slow slip event and active area of general earthquake along plate boundary. To detect small and/or hidden very low frequency earthquake, we applied matched filter analysis to continuous three components waveform data using pre-reviewed seismogram as template signal. 12 events with high correlation are picked up in last 10 years. Most events have very similar waveform, which means characteristics of repeating deep very low frequency earthquake. The event history of very low frequency earthquake is not related with one of slow slip event in this region. In Yaeyama region, low frequency earthquake, general earthquake and slow slip event occur dividing in space and have apparent

  6. Periodic Viscous Shear Heating Instability in Fine-Grained Shear Zones: Possible Mechanism for Intermediate Depth Earthquakes and Slow Earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelemen, P. B.; Hirth, G.

    2004-12-01

    creep and grain boundary sliding as a function of stress and strain, and undergoes diffusive growth during diffusion creep. For strain rates ca E-13 per second and initial temperatures ca 600 to 850 C, this model produces periodic viscous shear heating events with periods of 100's of years. Strain rates during these events approach 1 per second as temperatures reach 1400 C, so future models will incorporate inertial terms in the stress. Cooling between events returns the shear zone almost to its initial temperature, but ultimately shear zone temperature between events exceeds 850 C resulting in stable viscous creep. Back of the envelope calculations based on model results support the view that viscous deformation in both shear zone and host will be mainly via grain-size sensitive creep, and thus deformation will remain localized in shear zones. Similarly, we infer that inertial terms will remain small. Future models will test and quantify these inferences. The simple model described above provides an attractive explanation for intermediate-depth earthquakes, especially those in subduction zones that occur in a narrow thermal window (e.g., Hacker et al JGR 2003). We think that a "smoother"periodic instability might be produced via the same mechanism in weaker materials, which could provide a viscous mechanism for some slow earthquakes. By AGU, we will construct a second, simple model using quartz rheology to investigate this. Finally, coupling of viscous shear heating instabilities in the shallow mantle with brittle stick-slip deformation in the weaker, overlying crust may influence earthquake frequency.

  7. Global observation of Omori-law decay in the rate of triggered earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, T.

    2001-12-01

    Triggered earthquakes can be large, damaging, and lethal as evidenced by the 1999 shocks in Turkey and the 2001 events in El Salvador. In this study, earthquakes with M greater than 7.0 from the Harvard CMT catalog are modeled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on subsequent earthquake rupture planes near enough to be affected. About 61% of earthquakes that occurred near the main shocks are associated with calculated shear stress increases, while ~39% are associated with shear stress decreases. If earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases are interpreted as triggered, then such events make up at least 8% of the CMT catalog. Globally, triggered earthquakes obey an Omori-law rate decay that lasts between ~7-11 years after the main shock. Earthquakes associated with calculated shear stress increases occur at higher rates than background up to 240 km away from the main-shock centroid. Earthquakes triggered by smaller quakes (foreshocks) also obey Omori's law, which is one of the few time-predictable patterns evident in the global occurrence of earthquakes. These observations indicate that earthquake probability calculations which include interactions from previous shocks should incorporate a transient Omori-law decay with time. In addition, a very simple model using the observed global rate change with time and spatial distribution of triggered earthquakes can be applied to immediately assess the likelihood of triggered earthquakes following large events, and can be in place until more sophisticated analyses are conducted.

  8. Slab1.0: A three-dimensional model of global subduction zone geometries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Gavin P.; Wald, David J.; Johnson, Rebecca L.

    2012-01-01

    We describe and present a new model of global subduction zone geometries, called Slab1.0. An extension of previous efforts to constrain the two-dimensional non-planar geometry of subduction zones around the focus of large earthquakes, Slab1.0 describes the detailed, non-planar, three-dimensional geometry of approximately 85% of subduction zones worldwide. While the model focuses on the detailed form of each slab from their trenches through the seismogenic zone, where it combines data sets from active source and passive seismology, it also continues to the limits of their seismic extent in the upper-mid mantle, providing a uniform approach to the definition of the entire seismically active slab geometry. Examples are shown for two well-constrained global locations; models for many other regions are available and can be freely downloaded in several formats from our new Slab1.0 website, http://on.doi.gov/d9ARbS. We describe improvements in our two-dimensional geometry constraint inversion, including the use of ‘average’ active source seismic data profiles in the shallow trench regions where data are otherwise lacking, derived from the interpolation between other active source seismic data along-strike in the same subduction zone. We include several analyses of the uncertainty and robustness of our three-dimensional interpolation methods. In addition, we use the filtered, subduction-related earthquake data sets compiled to build Slab1.0 in a reassessment of previous analyses of the deep limit of the thrust interface seismogenic zone for all subduction zones included in our global model thus far, concluding that the width of these seismogenic zones is on average 30% larger than previous studies have suggested.

  9. Slow Earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone Detected by Multiple Mini Seismic Arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    LI, B.; Ghosh, A.; Thurber, C. H.; Lanza, F.

    2017-12-01

    The Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone is one of the most seismically and volcanically active plate boundaries on earth. Compared to other subduction zones, the slow earthquakes, such as tectonic tremors (TTs) and low frequency earthquakes (LFEs), are relatively poorly studied due to the limited data availability and difficult logistics. The analysis of two-months of continuous data from a mini array deployed in 2012 shows abundant tremor and LFE activities under Unalaska Island that is heterogeneously distributed [Li & Ghosh, 2017]. To better study slow earthquakes and understand their physical characteristics in the study region, we deployed a hybrid array of arrays, consisting of three well-designed mini seismic arrays and five stand alone stations, in the Unalaska Island in 2014. They were operational for between one and two years. Using the beam back-projection method [Ghosh et al., 2009, 2012], we detect continuous tremor activities for over a year when all three arrays are running. The sources of tremors are located south of the Unalaska and Akutan Islands, at the eastern and down-dip edge of the rupture zone of the 1957 Mw 8.6 earthquake, and they are clustered in several patches, with a gap between the two major clusters. Tremors show multiple migration patterns with propagation in both along-strike and dip directions and a wide range of velocities. We also identify tens of LFE families and use them as templates to search for repeating LFE events with the matched-filter method. Hundreds to thousands of LFEs for each family are detected and their activities are spatiotemporally consistent with tremor activities. The array techniques are revealing a near-continuous tremor activity in this area with remarkable spatiotemporal details. It helps us to better recognize the physical properties of the transition zone, provides new insights into the slow earthquake activities in this area, and explores their relation with the local earthquakes and the potential slow

  10. Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Paul S.; Wald, David J.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Allen, Trevor I.; Hearne, Michael G.; Marano, Kristin D.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Fee, Jeremy

    2009-01-01

    Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population.

  11. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  12. Fractal analysis of the spatial distribution of earthquakes along the Hellenic Subduction Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadakis, Giorgos; Vallianatos, Filippos; Sammonds, Peter

    2014-05-01

    The Hellenic Subduction Zone (HSZ) is the most seismically active region in Europe. Many destructive earthquakes have taken place along the HSZ in the past. The evolution of such active regions is expressed through seismicity and is characterized by complex phenomenology. The understanding of the tectonic evolution process and the physical state of subducting regimes is crucial in earthquake prediction. In recent years, there is a growing interest concerning an approach to seismicity based on the science of complex systems (Papadakis et al., 2013; Vallianatos et al., 2012). In this study we calculate the fractal dimension of the spatial distribution of earthquakes along the HSZ and we aim to understand the significance of the obtained values to the tectonic and geodynamic evolution of this area. We use the external seismic sources provided by Papaioannou and Papazachos (2000) to create a dataset regarding the subduction zone. According to the aforementioned authors, we define five seismic zones. Then, we structure an earthquake dataset which is based on the updated and extended earthquake catalogue for Greece and the adjacent areas by Makropoulos et al. (2012), covering the period 1976-2009. The fractal dimension of the spatial distribution of earthquakes is calculated for each seismic zone and for the HSZ as a unified system using the box-counting method (Turcotte, 1997; Robertson et al., 1995; Caneva and Smirnov, 2004). Moreover, the variation of the fractal dimension is demonstrated in different time windows. These spatiotemporal variations could be used as an additional index to inform us about the physical state of each seismic zone. As a precursor in earthquake forecasting, the use of the fractal dimension appears to be a very interesting future work. Acknowledgements Giorgos Papadakis wish to acknowledge the Greek State Scholarships Foundation (IKY). References Caneva, A., Smirnov, V., 2004. Using the fractal dimension of earthquake distributions and the

  13. Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  14. Microscale cavitation as a mechanism for nucleating earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verberne, Berend A; Chen, Jianye; Niemeijer, André R; de Bresser, Johannes H P; Pennock, Gillian M; Drury, Martyn R; Spiers, Christopher J

    2017-11-21

    Major earthquakes frequently nucleate near the base of the seismogenic zone, close to the brittle-ductile transition. Fault zone rupture at greater depths is inhibited by ductile flow of rock. However, the microphysical mechanisms responsible for the transition from ductile flow to seismogenic brittle/frictional behaviour at shallower depths remain unclear. Here we show that the flow-to-friction transition in experimentally simulated calcite faults is characterized by a transition from dislocation and diffusion creep to dilatant deformation, involving incompletely accommodated grain boundary sliding. With increasing shear rate or decreasing temperature, dislocation and diffusion creep become too slow to accommodate the imposed shear strain rate, leading to intergranular cavitation, weakening, strain localization, and a switch from stable flow to runaway fault rupture. The observed shear instability, triggered by the onset of microscale cavitation, provides a key mechanism for bringing about the brittle-ductile transition and for nucleating earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone.

  15. Characterizing the structural maturity of fault zones using high-resolution earthquake locations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrin, C.; Waldhauser, F.; Scholz, C. H.

    2017-12-01

    We use high-resolution earthquake locations to characterize the three-dimensional structure of active faults in California and how it evolves with fault structural maturity. We investigate the distribution of aftershocks of several recent large earthquakes that occurred on immature faults (i.e., slow moving and small cumulative displacement), such as the 1992 (Mw7.3) Landers and 1999 (Mw7.1) Hector Mine events, and earthquakes that occurred on mature faults, such as the 1984 (Mw6.2) Morgan Hill and 2004 (Mw6.0) Parkfield events. Unlike previous studies which typically estimated the width of fault zones from the distribution of earthquakes perpendicular to the surface fault trace, we resolve fault zone widths with respect to the 3D fault surface estimated from principal component analysis of local seismicity. We find that the zone of brittle deformation around the fault core is narrower along mature faults compared to immature faults. We observe a rapid fall off of the number of events at a distance range of 70 - 100 m from the main fault surface of mature faults (140-200 m fault zone width), and 200-300 m from the fault surface of immature faults (400-600 m fault zone width). These observations are in good agreement with fault zone widths estimated from guided waves trapped in low velocity damage zones. The total width of the active zone of deformation surrounding the main fault plane reach 1.2 km and 2-4 km for mature and immature faults, respectively. The wider zone of deformation presumably reflects the increased heterogeneity in the stress field along complex and discontinuous faults strands that make up immature faults. In contrast, narrower deformation zones tend to align with well-defined fault planes of mature faults where most of the deformation is concentrated. Our results are in line with previous studies suggesting that surface fault traces become smoother, and thus fault zones simpler, as cumulative fault slip increases.

  16. Coulomb stress interactions among M≥5.9 earthquakes in the Gorda deformation zone and on the Mendocino Fracture Zone, Cascadia megathrust, and northern San Andreas fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollins, John C.; Stein, Ross S.

    2010-01-01

    The Gorda deformation zone, a 50,000 km2 area of diffuse shear and rotation offshore northernmost California, has been the site of 20 M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes on four different fault orientations since 1976, including four M ≥ 7 shocks. This is the highest rate of large earthquakes in the contiguous United States. We calculate that the source faults of six recent M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes had experienced ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress increases imparted by earthquakes that struck less than 9 months beforehand. Control tests indicate that ≥0.6 bar Coulomb stress interactions between M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes separated by Mw = 7.3 Trinidad earthquake are consistent with the locations of M ≥ 5.9 earthquakes in the Gorda zone until at least 1995, as well as earthquakes on the Mendocino Fault Zone in 1994 and 2000. Coulomb stress changes imparted by the 1980 earthquake are also consistent with its distinct elbow-shaped aftershock pattern. From these observations, we derive generalized static stress interactions among right-lateral, left-lateral and thrust faults near triple junctions.

  17. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1997-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  18. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  19. GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-04-01

    components are in the planning stages, such as the developments of a unified active fault database and earthquake catalog. The flagship activity of GEM's first year is GEM1, a focused pilot project to develop GEM's first hazard and risk modeling products and initial IT infrastructure, starting in January 2009 and ending in March 2010. GEM1 will provide core capabilities for the present and key knowledge for future development of the full GEM computing Environment and product set. We will build GEM1 largely using existing tools and datasets, connected through a unified IT infrastructure, in order to bring GEM's initial capabilities online as rapidly as possible. The Swiss Seismological Service at ETH-Zurich is leading the GEM1 effort in cooperation with partners around the world. We anticipate that GEM1's products will include: • A global compilation of regional seismic source zone models in one or more common representations • Global synthetic earthquake catalogs for use in hazard calculations • Initial set of regional and global catalogues for validation • Global hazard models in map and database forms • First compilation of global vulnerabilities and fragilities • Tools for exposure and loss assessment • Validation of results and software for existing risk assessment tools to be used in future GEM stages • Demonstration risk scenarios for target cities • First version of GEM IT infrastructure All these products will be made freely available to the greatest extent possible. For more information on GEM and GEM1, please visit http://www.globalquakemodel.org.

  20. A possible mechanism for earthquakes found in the mantle wedge of the Nazca subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, L. M.; Chang, Y.; Prieto, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Beneath Colombia, the Cauca cluster of intermediate-depth earthquakes extends for 200 km along the trench (3.5°N-5.5°N, 77.0°W-75.3°W) and, with 58 earthquakes per year with local magnitude ML >= 2.5, has a higher rate of seismicity than the subduction zone immediately to the north or south. By precisely locating 433 cluster earthquakes from 1/2010-3/2014 with data from the Colombian National Seismic Network, we found that the earthquakes are located both in a continuous Nazca plate subducting at an angle of 33°-43° and in the overlying mantle wedge. The mantle wedge earthquakes (12% of the earthquakes) form two isolated 40-km-tall columns extending perpendicular to the subducting slab. Using waveform inversion, we computed focal mechanisms for 69 of the larger earthquakes. The focal mechanisms are variable, but the intraslab earthquakes are generally consistent with an in-slab extensional stress axis oriented 25° counterclockwise from the down-dip direction. We suggest that the observed mantle wedge earthquakes are the result of hydrofracture in a relatively cool mantle wedge. This segment of the Nazca Plate is currently subducting at a normal angle, but Wagner et al. (2017) suggested that a flat slab slowly developed in the region between 9-5.9 Ma and persisted until 4 Ma. During flat slab subduction, the overlying mantle wedge typically cools because it is cut off from mantle corner flow. After hydrous minerals in the slab dehydrate, the dehydrated fluid is expelled from the slab and migrates through the mantle wedge. If a cool mantle wedge remains today, fluid dehydrated from the slab may generate earthquakes by hydrofracture, with the mantle wedge earthquakes representing fluid migration pathways. Dahm's (2000) model of water-filled fracture propagation in the mantle wedge shows hydrofractures propagating normal to the subducting slab and extending tens of km into the mantle wedge, as we observe.

  1. Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com [Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı (Turkey)

    2016-04-18

    In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

  2. Long-term perspectives on giant earthquakes and tsunamis at subduction zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, K.; Atwater, B.F.; ,

    2007-01-01

    Histories of earthquakes and tsunamis, inferred from geological evidence, aid in anticipating future catastrophes. This natural warning system now influences building codes and tsunami planning in the United States, Canada, and Japan, particularly where geology demonstrates the past occurrence of earthquakes and tsunamis larger than those known from written and instrumental records. Under favorable circumstances, paleoseismology can thus provide long-term advisories of unusually large tsunamis. The extraordinary Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 resulted from a fault rupture more than 1000 km in length that included and dwarfed fault patches that had broken historically during lesser shocks. Such variation in rupture mode, known from written history at a few subduction zones, is also characteristic of earthquake histories inferred from geology on the Pacific Rim. Copyright ?? 2007 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  3. Earthquake spectra and near-source attenuation in the Cascadia subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, J.; Creager, K.; Sweet, J.; Vidale, J.; Ghosh, A.; Hotovec, A.

    2012-05-01

    Models of seismic source displacement spectra are flat from zero to some corner frequency, fc, regardless of source type. At higher frequencies spectral models decay as f-1 for slow events and as f-2 for fast earthquakes. We show that at least in Cascadia, wave propagation effects likely control spectral decay rates above ˜2 Hz. We use seismograms from multiple small-aperture arrays to estimate the spectral decay rates of near-source spectra of 37 small `events' and find strong correlation between source location and decay rate. The decay rates (1) vary overall by an amount in excess of that inferred to distinguish slow sources from fast earthquakes, (2) are indistinguishable for sources separated by a few tens of km or less, and (3) separate into two populations that correlate with propagation through and outside a low-velocity zone imaged tomographically. We find that some events repeat, as is characteristic of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs), but have spectra similar to those of non-repeating earthquakes. We also find no correlation between spectral decay rates and rates of ambient tremor activity. These results suggest that earthquakes near the plate boundary, at least in Cascadia, do not distinctly separate into `slow' and `fast' classes, and correctly accounting for propagation effects is necessary to characterize sources.

  4. Kamchatka subduction zone, May 2013: the Mw 8.3 deep earthquake, preceding shallow swarm and numerous deep aftershocks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Špičák, Aleš; Vaněk, Jiří

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 58, č. 1 (2014), s. 76-83 ISSN 0039-3169 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : Kamchatka * deep earthquake * earthquake swarm * Wadati-Benioff zone Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.806, year: 2014

  5. Global challenges in integrated coastal zone management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    integration of data and information in policy and management, combining expertise from nature and social science, to reach a balanced and sustainable development of the coastal zone. This important book comprises the proceedings of The International Symposium on Integrated Coastal Zone Management, which took....../mitigation to change in coastal systems Coastal governance Linking science and management Comprising a huge wealth of information, this timely and well-edited volume is essential reading for all those involved in coastal zone management around the globe. All libraries in research establishments and universities where...

  6. Finite element models of earthquake cycles in mature strike-slip fault zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, John Charles

    The research presented in this dissertation is on the subject of strike-slip earthquakes and the stresses that build and release in the Earth's crust during earthquake cycles. Numerical models of these cycles in a layered elastic/viscoelastic crust are produced using the finite element method. A fault that alternately sticks and slips poses a particularly challenging problem for numerical implementation, and a new contact element dubbed the "Velcro" element was developed to address this problem (Appendix A). Additionally, the finite element code used in this study was bench-marked against analytical solutions for some simplified problems (Chapter 2), and the resolving power was tested for the fault region of the models (Appendix B). With the modeling method thus developed, there are two main questions posed. First, in Chapter 3, the effect of a finite-width shear zone is considered. By defining a viscoelastic shear zone beneath a periodically slipping fault, it is found that shear stress concentrates at the edges of the shear zone and thus causes the stress tensor to rotate into non-Andersonian orientations. Several methods are used to examine the stress patterns, including the plunge angles of the principal stresses and a new method that plots the stress tensor in a manner analogous to seismic focal mechanism diagrams. In Chapter 4, a simple San Andreas-like model is constructed, consisting of two great earthquake producing faults separated by a freely-slipping shorter fault. The model inputs of lower crustal viscosity, fault separation distance, and relative breaking strengths are examined for their effect on fault communication. It is found that with a lower crustal viscosity of 1018 Pa s (in the lower range of estimates for California), the two faults tend to synchronize their earthquake cycles, even in the cases where the faults have asymmetric breaking strengths. These models imply that postseismic stress transfer over hundreds of kilometers may play a

  7. IDENTIFICATION OF EARTHQUAKE AFTERSHOCK AND SWARM SEQUENCES IN THE BAIKAL RIFT ZONE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Radziminovich

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The catalog of earthquakes (КR³6.6 which occurred in the Baikal rift zone (BRZ was declastered, and the results are presented in the article. Aftershocks of seismic events (КR³12.5 were determined by the software developed by V.B. Smirnov (Lomonosov Moscow State University with application of the algorithm co-authored by G.M. Molchan and O.E. Dmitrieva. To ensure proper control of the software application, aftershocks were also selected manually. The results of declustering show that aftershocks of the earthquakes (КR³12.5 account for about 25 per cent of all seismic events in the regional catalog. Aftershocks accompanied 90 per cent of all the earthquakes considered as main shocks. Besides, earthquake swarms, including events with КR³11, were identified. The results of this study show that, in the BRZ, the swarms and strong events with aftershocks are not spatially separated, and this conclusion differs from the views of the previous studies that reviewed data from a shorter observation period. Moreover, it is noted that the swarms may consist of several main shocks accompanied by aftershocks. The data accumulated over the last fifty years of instrumental observations support the conclusion made earlier that the swarms in BRZ occur mainly in the north-eastward direction from Lake Baikal and also confirm the trend of a small number of aftershocks accompanying earthquakes in the south-western part of the Baikal rift zone.

  8. Tularemia and plague survey in rodents in an earthquake zone in southeastern Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyuranecz, Miklós

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Earthquakes are one the most common natural disasters that lead to increased mortality and morbidity from transmissible diseases, partially because the rodents displaced by an earthquake can lead to an increased rate of disease transmission. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of plague and tularemia in rodents in the earthquake zones in southeastern Iran. METHODS: In April 2013, a research team was dispatched to explore the possible presence of diseases in rodents displaced by a recent earthquake magnitude 7.7 around the cities of Khash and Saravan in Sistan and Baluchestan Province. Rodents were trapped near and in the earthquake zone, in a location where an outbreak of tularemia was reported in 2007. Rodent serums were tested for a serological survey using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: In the 13 areas that were studied, nine rodents were caught over a total of 200 trap-days. Forty-eight fleas and 10 ticks were obtained from the rodents. The ticks were from the Hyalomma genus and the fleas were from the Xenopsylla genus. All the trapped rodents were Tatera indica. Serological results were negative for plague, but the serum agglutination test was positive for tularemia in one of the rodents. Tatera indica has never been previously documented to be involved in the transmission of tularemia. CONCLUSIONS: No evidence of the plague cycle was found in the rodents of the area, but evidence was found of tularemia infection in rodents, as demonstrated by a positive serological test for tularemia in one rodent. PMID:26602769

  9. Fracture Modes and Identification of Fault Zones in Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Scientific Drilling Boreholes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, C.; Pan, H.; Zhao, P.; Qin, R.; Peng, L.

    2017-12-01

    After suffering from the disaster of Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th, 2008, scientists are eager to figure out the structure of formation, the geodynamic processes of faults and the mechanism of earthquake in Wenchuan by drilling five holes into the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault zone and Anxian-Guanxian fault zone. Fractures identification and in-situ stress determination can provide abundant information for formation evaluation and earthquake study. This study describe all the fracture modes in the five boreholes on the basis of cores and image logs, and summarize the response characteristics of fractures in conventional logs. The results indicate that the WFSD boreholes encounter enormous fractures, including natural fractures and induced fractures, and high dip-angle conductive fractures are the most common fractures. The maximum horizontal stress trends along the borehole are deduced as NWW-SEE according to orientations of borehole breakouts and drilling-induced fractures, which is nearly parallel to the strikes of the younger natural fracture sets. Minor positive deviations of AC (acoustic log) and negative deviation of DEN (density log) demonstrate their responses to fracture, followed by CNL (neutron log), resistivity logs and GR (gamma ray log) at different extent of intensity. Besides, considering the fact that the reliable methods for identifying fracture zone, like seismic, core recovery and image logs, can often be hampered by their high cost and limited application, this study propose a method by using conventional logs, which are low-cost and available in even old wells. We employ wavelet decomposition to extract the high frequency information of conventional logs and reconstruction a new log in special format of enhance fracture responses and eliminate nonfracture influence. Results reveal that the new log shows obvious deviations in fault zones, which confirm the potential of conventional logs in fracture zone identification.

  10. Improving automatic earthquake locations in subduction zones: a case study for GEOFON catalog of Tonga-Fiji region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nooshiri, Nima; Heimann, Sebastian; Saul, Joachim; Tilmann, Frederik; Dahm, Torsten

    2015-04-01

    Automatic earthquake locations are sometimes associated with very large residuals up to 10 s even for clear arrivals, especially for regional stations in subduction zones because of their strongly heterogeneous velocity structure associated. Although these residuals are most likely not related to measurement errors but unmodelled velocity heterogeneity, these stations are usually removed from or down-weighted in the location procedure. While this is possible for large events, it may not be useful if the earthquake is weak. In this case, implementation of travel-time station corrections may significantly improve the automatic locations. Here, the shrinking box source-specific station term method (SSST) [Lin and Shearer, 2005] has been applied to improve relative location accuracy of 1678 events that occurred in the Tonga subduction zone between 2010 and mid-2014. Picks were obtained from the GEOFON earthquake bulletin for all available station networks. We calculated a set of timing corrections for each station which vary as a function of source position. A separate time correction was computed for each source-receiver path at the given station by smoothing the residual field over nearby events. We begin with a very large smoothing radius essentially encompassing the whole event set and iterate by progressively shrinking the smoothing radius. In this way, we attempted to correct for the systematic errors, that are introduced into the locations by the inaccuracies in the assumed velocity structure, without solving for a new velocity model itself. One of the advantages of the SSST technique is that the event location part of the calculation is separate from the station term calculation and can be performed using any single event location method. In this study, we applied a non-linear, probabilistic, global-search earthquake location method using the software package NonLinLoc [Lomax et al., 2000]. The non-linear location algorithm implemented in NonLinLoc is less

  11. Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

    2016-01-01

    The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

  12. Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

  13. Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: A quantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marano, K.D.; Wald, D.J.; Allen, T.I.

    2010-01-01

    This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER's overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

  14. Modeling earthquake sequences along the Manila subduction zone: Effects of three-dimensional fault geometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hongyu; Liu, Yajing; Yang, Hongfeng; Ning, Jieyuan

    2018-05-01

    To assess the potential of catastrophic megathrust earthquakes (MW > 8) along the Manila Trench, the eastern boundary of the South China Sea, we incorporate a 3D non-planar fault geometry in the framework of rate-state friction to simulate earthquake rupture sequences along the fault segment between 15°N-19°N of northern Luzon. Our simulation results demonstrate that the first-order fault geometry heterogeneity, the transitional-segment (possibly related to the subducting Scarborough seamount chain) connecting the steeper south segment and the flatter north segment, controls earthquake rupture behaviors. The strong along-strike curvature at the transitional-segment typically leads to partial ruptures of MW 8.3 and MW 7.8 along the southern and northern segments respectively. The entire fault occasionally ruptures in MW 8.8 events when the cumulative stress in the transitional-segment is sufficiently high to overcome the geometrical inhibition. Fault shear stress evolution, represented by the S-ratio, is clearly modulated by the width of seismogenic zone (W). At a constant plate convergence rate, a larger W indicates on average lower interseismic stress loading rate and longer rupture recurrence period, and could slow down or sometimes stop ruptures that initiated from a narrower portion. Moreover, the modeled interseismic slip rate before whole-fault rupture events is comparable with the coupling state that was inferred from the interplate seismicity distribution, suggesting the Manila trench could potentially rupture in a M8+ earthquake.

  15. Assessing Urban Streets Network Vulnerability against Earthquake Using GIS - Case Study: 6TH Zone of Tehran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastegar, A.

    2017-09-01

    Great earthquakes cause huge damages to human life. Street networks vulnerability makes the rescue operation to encounter serious difficulties especially at the first 72 hours after the incident. Today, physical expansion and high density of great cities, due to narrow access roads, large distance from medical care centers and location at areas with high seismic risk, will lead to a perilous and unpredictable situation in case of the earthquake. Zone # 6 of Tehran, with 229,980 population (3.6% of city population) and 20 km2 area (3.2% of city area), is one of the main municipal zones of Tehran (Iran center of statistics, 2006). Major land-uses, like ministries, embassies, universities, general hospitals and medical centers, big financial firms and so on, manifest the high importance of this region on local and national scale. In this paper, by employing indexes such as access to medical centers, street inclusion, building and population density, land-use, PGA and building quality, vulnerability degree of street networks in zone #6 against the earthquake is calculated through overlaying maps and data in combination with IHWP method and GIS. This article concludes that buildings alongside the streets with high population and building density, low building quality, far to rescue centers and high level of inclusion represent high rate of vulnerability, compared with other buildings. Also, by moving on from north to south of the zone, the vulnerability increases. Likewise, highways and streets with substantial width and low building and population density hold little values of vulnerability.

  16. Earthquake behavior of the Enriquillo fault zone, Haiti revealed by interactive terrain visualization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowgill, E.; Bernardin, T. S.; Oskin, M. E.; Bowles, C. J.; Yikilmaz, M. B.; Kreylos, O.; Elliott, A. J.; Bishop, M. S.; Gold, R. D.; Morelan, A.; Bawden, G. W.; Hamann, B.; Kellogg, L. H.

    2010-12-01

    The Mw 7.0 January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake ended 240 years of relative quiescence following earthquakes that destroyed Port-au-Prince in 1751 and 1770. We place the 2010 rupture in the context of past earthquakes and future hazards by using remote analysis of airborne LiDAR to observe the topographic expression of active faulting and develop a new conceptual model for the earthquake behavior of the eastern Enriquillo fault zone (EFZ). In this model, the 2010 event occupies a long-lived segment boundary at a stepover within the EFZ separating fault segments that likely ruptured in 1751 and 1770, explaining both past clustering and the lack of 2010 surface rupture. Immediately following the 2010 earthquake, an airborne LiDAR point cloud containing over 2.7 billion point measurements of surface features was collected by the Rochester Inst. of Technology. To analyze these data, we capitalize on the human capacity to visually identify meaningful patterns embedded in noisy data by conducting interactive visual analysis of the entire 66.8 GB Haiti terrain data in a 4-sided, 800 ft3 immersive virtual-reality environment at the UC Davis KeckCAVES using the software tools LiDAR Viewer (to analyze point cloud data) and Crusta (for 3D surficial geologic mapping on DEM data). We discovered and measured landforms displaced by past surface-rupturing earthquakes and remotely characterized the regional fault geometry. Our analysis of the ~50 km long reach of EFZ spanning the 2010 epicenter indicates that geomorphic evidence of active faulting is clearer east of the epicenter than to the west. West of the epicenter, and in the region of the 2010 rupture, the fault is poorly defined along an embayed, low-relief range front, with little evidence of recent surface rupture. In contrast, landform offsets of 6 to 50 m along the reach of the EFZ east of the epicenter and closest to Port-au-Prince attest to repeated recent surface-rupturing earthquakes here. Specifically, we found and

  17. Fault plane orientations of deep earthquakes in the Izu-Bonin-Marianas subduction zone system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myhill, R.; Warren, L. M.

    2011-12-01

    We present the results of directivity analysis on 45 deep earthquakes within the Izu-Bonin-Marianas subduction zone between 1993 and 2011. The age of the subducting Pacific plate increases from north to south along the trench, from 120 Ma offshore Tokyo to over 150 Ma east of the Mariana Islands. The dip of the deep slab generally increases from north to south, and is steep to overturned beneath the southern Bonin Islands and Marianas. Between 34 and 26 degrees north, a peak in seismicity at 350-450 km depth marks a decrease in dip as the slab approaches the base of the upper mantle. We observe directivity for around 60 percent of the analysed earthquakes, and use the propagation characteristics to find the best fitting rupture vector. In 60-70 percent of cases with well constrained rupture directivity, the best fitting rupture vector allows discrimination of the fault plane and the auxiliary plane of the focal mechanism. The identified fault planes between 100 km and 500 km are predominantly near-horizontal or south-southwest dipping. Rotated into the plane of the slab, the fault plane poles form a single cluster, since the more steeply dipping fault planes are found within more steeply dipping sections of slab. The dominance of near-horizontal fault planes at intermediate depth agrees with results from previous studies of the Tonga and Middle-America subduction zones. However, the presence of a single preferred fault plane orientation for large deep-focus earthquakes has not been previously reported, and contrasts with the situation for deep-focus earthquakes in the Tonga-Kermadec subduction system. Ruptures tend to propagate away from the top surface of the slab. We discuss potential causes of preferred fault plane orientations within subducting slabs in the light of existing available data, and the implications for mechanisms of faulting at great depths within the Earth.

  18. The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone and the great Lisbon earthquake of 1755

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutscher, M.-A.; Malod, J. A.; Rehault, J.-P.; Thiebot, E.; Contrucci, I.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M.

    2003-04-01

    New geophysical data provide compelling evidence for an active east dipping subduction zone beneath the Gibraltar Arc. SISMAR marine seismic data in the Gulf of Cadiz image an actively deforming accretionary wedge, with east dipping thrust faults disrupting the seafloor and soleing out to an east dipping decollement. Tomographic cross-sections as well as hypocenter distribution support a continuous east dipping slab of oceanic lithosphere from the Atlantic domain to beneath the Western Alboran Sea. The great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 (felt as far away as Hamburg, the Azores and Cape Verde Islands) has the largest documented felt area of any shallow earthquake and an estimated magnitude of 8.5 - 9.0. The associated tsunami ravaged the coast of SW Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz, with run-up heights reported to have reached 5 - 15 m. While several source regions offshore SW Portugal have been proposed (e.g. - Gorringe Bank, Marques de Pombal fault), no single source appears to be able to account for the great seismic moment and the tsunami amplitude and travel-time observations. We propose the Gibraltar arc seismogenic zone to be the source of the 1755 earthquake. This hypothesis may be tested in several ways. We perform tsunami wave form modeling for a shallow east dipping fault plane with dimensions of 180 km (N-S) x 210 km (E-W) and a co-seismic slip of 20 m. For convergence rates of 1 - 2 cm/yr an event of this magnitude could recur every 1000 - 2000 years. Furthermore, the DELILA geophysical cruise is proposed for 2004 to conduct a bathymetric and seismic survey of the accretionary wedge and to sample the turbidites in the adjacent abyssal plains which record the history of great earthquakes.

  19. Stress development in heterogenetic lithosphere: Insights into earthquake processes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Yan; Hou, Guiting; Kusky, Timothy; Gregg, Patricia M.

    2016-03-01

    The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in the Midwestern United States was the site of several major M 6.8-8 earthquakes in 1811-1812, and remains seismically active. Although this region has been investigated extensively, the ultimate controls on earthquake initiation and the duration of the seismicity remain unclear. In this study, we develop a finite element model for the Central United States to conduct a series of numerical experiments with the goal of determining the impact of heterogeneity in the upper crust, the lower crust, and the mantle on earthquake nucleation and rupture processes. Regional seismic tomography data (CITE) are utilized to infer the viscosity structure of the lithosphere which provide an important input to the numerical models. Results indicate that when differential stresses build in the Central United States, the stresses accumulating beneath the Reelfoot Rift in the NMSZ are highly concentrated, whereas the stresses below the geologically similar Midcontinent Rift System are comparatively low. The numerical observations coincide with the observed distribution of seismicity throughout the region. By comparing the numerical results with three reference models, we argue that an extensive mantle low velocity zone beneath the NMSZ produces differential stress localization in the layers above. Furthermore, the relatively strong crust in this region, exhibited by high seismic velocities, enables the elevated stress to extend to the base of the ancient rift system, reactivating fossil rifting faults and therefore triggering earthquakes. These results show that, if boundary displacements are significant, the NMSZ is able to localize tectonic stresses, which may be released when faults close to failure are triggered by external processes such as melting of the Laurentide ice sheet or rapid river incision.

  20. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  1. Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

    2015-01-01

    The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (tsunami (>10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

  2. Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

    2015-01-01

    The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

  3. Use of Fault Displacement Vector to Identify Future Zones of Seismicity: An Example from the Earthquakes of Nepal Himalayas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naim, F.; Mukherjee, M. K.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquakes occur due to fault slip in the subsurface. They can occur either as interplate or intraplate earthquakes. The region of study is the Nepal Himalayas that defines the boundary of Indian-Eurasian plate and houses the focus of the most devastating earthquakes. The aim of the study was to analyze all the earthquakes that occurred in the Nepal Himalayas upto May 12, 2015 earthquake in order to mark the regions still under stress and vulnerable for future earthquakes. Three different fault systems in the Nepal Himalayas define the tectonic set up of the area. They are: (1) Main Frontal Thrust(MFT), (2) Main Central Thrust(MCT) and (3) Main Boundary Thrust(MBT) that extend from NW to SE. Most of the earthquakes were observed to occur between the MBT and MCT. Since the thrust faults are dipping towards NE, the focus of most of the earthquakes lies on the MBT. The methodology includes estimating the dip of the fault by considering the depths of different earthquake events and their corresponding distance from the MBT. In order to carry out stress analysis on the fault, the beach ball diagrams associated with the different earthquakes were plotted on a map. Earthquakes in the NW and central region of the fault zone were associated with reverse fault slip while that on the South-Eastern part were associated with a strike slip component. The direction of net slip on the fault associated with the different earthquakes was known and from this a 3D slip diagram of the fault was constructed. The regions vulnerable for future earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya were demarcated on the 3D slip diagram of the fault. Such zones were marked owing to the fact that the slips due to earthquakes cause the adjoining areas to come under immense stress and this stress is directly proportional to the amount of slip occuring on the fault. These vulnerable zones were in turn projected on the map to show their position and are predicted to contain the epicenter of the future earthquakes.

  4. Strain-dependent Damage Evolution and Velocity Reduction in Fault Zones Induced by Earthquake Rupture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, J.; Duan, B.

    2009-12-01

    Low-velocity fault zones (LVFZs) with reduced seismic velocities relative to the surrounding wall rocks are widely observed around active faults. The presence of such a zone will affect rupture propagation, near-field ground motion, and off-fault damage in subsequent earth-quakes. In this study, we quantify the reduction of seismic velocities caused by dynamic rup-ture on a 2D planar fault surrounded by a low-velocity fault zone. First, we implement the damage rheology (Lyakhovsky et al. 1997) in EQdyna (Duan and Oglesby 2006), an explicit dynamic finite element code. We further extend this damage rheology model to include the dependence of strains on crack density. Then, we quantify off-fault continuum damage distribution and velocity reduction induced by earthquake rupture with the presence of a preexisting LVFZ. We find that the presence of a LVFZ affects the tempo-spatial distribu-tions of off-fault damage. Because lack of constraint in some damage parameters, we further investigate the relationship between velocity reduction and these damage prameters by a large suite of numerical simulations. Slip velocity, slip, and near-field ground motions computed from damage rheology are also compared with those from off-fault elastic or elastoplastic responses. We find that the reduction in elastic moduli during dynamic rupture has profound impact on these quantities.

  5. THE MISSING EARTHQUAKES OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY: RECONCILING RECURRENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATES, SOUTHERN CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patton, J. R.; Leroy, T. H.

    2009-12-01

    Earthquake and tsunami hazard for northwestern California and southern Oregon is predominately based on estimates of recurrence for earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone and upper plate thrust faults, each with unique deformation and recurrence histories. Coastal northern California is uniquely located to enable us to distinguish these different sources of seismic hazard as the accretionary prism extends on land in this region. This region experiences ground deformation from rupture of upper plate thrust faults like the Little Salmon fault. Most of this region is thought to be above the locked zone of the megathrust, so is subject to vertical deformation during the earthquake cycle. Secondary evidence of earthquake history is found here in the form of marsh soils that coseismically subside and commonly are overlain by estuarine mud and rarely tsunami sand. It is not currently known what the source of the subsidence is for this region; it may be due to upper plate rupture, megathrust rupture, or a combination of the two. Given that many earlier investigations utilized bulk peat for 14C age determinations and that these early studies were largely reconnaissance work, these studies need to be reevaluated. Recurrence Interval estimates are inconsistent when comparing terrestrial (~500 years) and marine (~220 years) data sets. This inconsistency may be due to 1) different sources of archival bias in marine and terrestrial data sets and/or 2) different sources of deformation. Factors controlling successful archiving of paleoseismic data are considered as this relates to geologic setting and how that might change through time. We compile, evaluate, and rank existing paleoseismic data in order to prioritize future paleoseismic investigations. 14C ages are recalibrated and quality assessments are made for each age determination. We then evaluate geologic setting and prioritize important research locations and goals based on these existing data. Terrestrial core

  6. Strain Anomalies during an Earthquake Sequence in the South Iceland Seismic Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnadottir, T.; Haines, A. J.; Geirsson, H.; Hreinsdottir, S.

    2017-12-01

    The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) accommodates E-W translation due to oblique spreading between the North American/Hreppar microplate and Eurasian plate, in South Iceland. Strain is released in the SISZ during earthquake sequences that last days to years, at average intervals of 80-100 years. The SISZ is currently in the midst of an earthquake sequence that started with two M6.5 earthquakes in June 2000, and continued with two M6 earthquakes in May 2008. Estimates of geometric strain accumulation, and seismic strain release in these events indicate that they released at most only half of the strain accumulated since the last earthquake cycle in 1896-1912. Annual GPS campaigns and continuous measurements during 2001-2015 were used to calculate station velocities and strain rates from a new method using the vertical derivatives of horizontal stress (VDoHS). This new method allows higher resolution of strain rates than other (older) approaches, as the strain rates are estimated by integrating VDoHS rates obtained by inversion rather than differentiating interpolated GPS velocities. Estimating the strain rates for eight 1-2 year intervals indicates temporal and spatial variation of strain rates in the SISZ. In addition to earthquake faulting, the strain rates in the SISZ are influenced by anthropogenic signals due to geothermal exploitation, and magma movements in neighboring volcanoes - Hekla and Eyjafjallajökull. Subtle signals of post-seismic strain rate changes are seen following the June 2000 M6.5 main shocks, but interestingly, much larger strain rate variations are observed after the two May 2008 M6 main shocks. A prominent strain anomaly is evident in the epicentral area prior to the May 2008 earthquake sequence. The strain signal persists over at least 4 years in the epicentral area, leading up to the M6 main shocks. The strain is primarily extension in ESE-WNW direction (sub-parallel to the direction of plate spreading), but overall shear across the N

  7. Imaging 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake and Its Aftershock Sequence Combining Multiple Calibrated Global Seismic Arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    LI, B.; Ghosh, A.

    2016-12-01

    The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake provides a good opportunity to study the tectonics and earthquake hazards in the Himalayas, one of the most seismically active plate boundaries. Details of the seismicity patterns and associated structures in the Himalayas are poorly understood mainly due to limited instrumentation. Here, we apply a back-projection method to study the mainshock rupture and the following aftershock sequence using four large aperture global seismic arrays. All the arrays show eastward rupture propagation of about 130 km and reveal similar evolution of seismic energy radiation, with strong high-frequency energy burst about 50 km north of Kathmandu. Each single array, however, is typically limited by large azimuthal gap, low resolution, and artifacts due to unmodeled velocity structures. Therefore, we use a self-consistent empirical calibration method to combine four different arrays to image the Gorkha event. It greatly improves the resolution, can better track rupture and reveal details that cannot be resolved by any individual array. In addition, we also use the same arrays at teleseismic distances and apply a back-projection technique to detect and locate the aftershocks immediately following the Gorkha earthquake. We detect about 2.5 times the aftershocks recorded by the Advance National Seismic System comprehensive earthquake catalog during the 19 days following the mainshock. The aftershocks detected by the arrays show an east-west trend in general, with majority of the aftershocks located at the eastern part of the rupture patch and surrounding the rupture zone of the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock. Overall spatiotemporal aftershock pattern agrees well with global catalog, with our catalog showing more details relative to the standard global catalog. The improved aftershock catalog enables us to better study the aftershock dynamics, stress evolution in this region. Moreover, rapid and better imaging of aftershock distribution may aid rapid response

  8. Spatial distribution of the earthquakes in the Vrancea zone and tectonic correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bala, Andrei; Diaconescu, Mihai; Biter, Mircea

    2001-01-01

    The tectonic plate evolution of the whole Carpathian Arc and Pannonian back-arc Basin indicates that at least three tectonic units have been in contact and at the same time in relative motion: the East European Plate, the Moesian plate and the Intra-Alpine plate. There were plotted graphically all the earthquake hypocentres from the period 1982-2000 situated in an area which includes Vrancea zone. Because of the great number of events plotted, they were found to describe well the limits of the tectonic plate (plate fragment?) which is supposed to be subducted in this region down to 200 km depth. The hypothesis of a plate fragment delaminated from an older subduction can not be overruled. These limits were put in direct relations with the known geology and tectonics of the area. Available fault plane solutions for the crustal earthquakes are analyzed in correlation with the main faults of the area. A graphic plot of the sunspot number is correlated with the occurrence of the earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5. (authors)

  9. ASSESSING URBAN STREETS NETWORK VULNERABILITY AGAINST EARTHQUAKE USING GIS – CASE STUDY: 6TH ZONE OF TEHRAN

    OpenAIRE

    A. Rastegar

    2017-01-01

    Great earthquakes cause huge damages to human life. Street networks vulnerability makes the rescue operation to encounter serious difficulties especially at the first 72 hours after the incident. Today, physical expansion and high density of great cities, due to narrow access roads, large distance from medical care centers and location at areas with high seismic risk, will lead to a perilous and unpredictable situation in case of the earthquake. Zone # 6 of Tehran, with 229,980 population ...

  10. The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

    2012-01-01

    In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

  11. Aftershocks illuminate the 2011 Mineral, Virginia, earthquake causative fault zone and nearby active faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, J. Wright; Shah, Anjana K.; McNamara, Daniel E.; Snyder, Stephen L.; Carter, Aina M

    2015-01-01

    Deployment of temporary seismic stations after the 2011 Mineral, Virginia (USA), earthquake produced a well-recorded aftershock sequence. The majority of aftershocks are in a tabular cluster that delineates the previously unknown Quail fault zone. Quail fault zone aftershocks range from ~3 to 8 km in depth and are in a 1-km-thick zone striking ~036° and dipping ~50°SE, consistent with a 028°, 50°SE main-shock nodal plane having mostly reverse slip. This cluster extends ~10 km along strike. The Quail fault zone projects to the surface in gneiss of the Ordovician Chopawamsic Formation just southeast of the Ordovician–Silurian Ellisville Granodiorite pluton tail. The following three clusters of shallow (<3 km) aftershocks illuminate other faults. (1) An elongate cluster of early aftershocks, ~10 km east of the Quail fault zone, extends 8 km from Fredericks Hall, strikes ~035°–039°, and appears to be roughly vertical. The Fredericks Hall fault may be a strand or splay of the older Lakeside fault zone, which to the south spans a width of several kilometers. (2) A cluster of later aftershocks ~3 km northeast of Cuckoo delineates a fault near the eastern contact of the Ordovician Quantico Formation. (3) An elongate cluster of late aftershocks ~1 km northwest of the Quail fault zone aftershock cluster delineates the northwest fault (described herein), which is temporally distinct, dips more steeply, and has a more northeastward strike. Some aftershock-illuminated faults coincide with preexisting units or structures evident from radiometric anomalies, suggesting tectonic inheritance or reactivation.

  12. The Effects of Zoning Regulations along Fault Zone Areas on Land Development and Property Values after the 921 Chi-Chi Earthquake in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tzu-Ling Chen

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Earthquakes are widely recognized as unpredictable and infrequent disasters that result in serious impacts on human settlements. Land use planning is one non-structural measure used to eliminate disaster risk by steering future development away from the existing built environment and enforcing particular structural engineering measures according to the disaster risk. However, arguments have arisen about applying land use planning to earthquake risk areas, as this serves as a type of disaster risk information disclosure that might impact the willingness to develop land or property value. Therefore, this study uses the spatial autocorrelation coefficient to examine the impact of land use planning on both land use and property transactions in the Chelungpu fault zone area (15 m from each side of the fault line in Taiwan. The overall impacts with and without zoning regulation in the fault zone area are explored. The results demonstrate that parcels that changed to building use in the earlier time period (1995–2008 are located distant from those maintaining the same building use, whereas, later, building use (2008–2014 is located on or nearby the fault zone area. In addition, the most recently constructed buildings are located in or close to the fault zone area and have a relatively higher property price. The legal zoning regulation along the fault zone for building use requires lower height and less intensive building, which might help mitigate the potential impact of future earthquakes.

  13. Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

    2017-11-01

    After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

  14. Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

    2018-04-01

    After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

  15. SEISMODYNAMICS AND DEEP INTERNAL ORIGIN OF THE NORTH CHINA ZONE OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey A. Stepashko

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Space-and-time regularities of seismicity of the North China (Tan-Lu zone are studies, and tectonic nature of strong earthquakes is analyzed. The concept of its genesis is still a matter of debate as this zone is located in the centre of the ancient SinoKorean craton, i.e. thousand kilometers away from convergent margins of Eurasia and the Pacific оcean and IndoAustralian plates (Figure 1. The information on the regional cycling dynamics [Xu, Deng, 1996] is updated. Two cycles, in which strong earthquakes (14 shocks with М≥7.0 occurred in the region under study, are distinguished, i.e. from 1500 to 1700, and from 1800 to 1980 (Figure 2. The seismodynamics of the North China zone is consistent with the Circum Pacific оcean deformation wave that occurs once in 300 years at the margin between Asia and the ocean and thus causes the strongest earthquakes (М≥8.8 and eruptions of volcanoes in the Pacific оcean belt [Vikulin et al., 2009, 2010]. This wave came to the northern regions of China in the years of 1500 and 1800 (Figure 3 and triggered seismic activity cycles. The second factor predetermining the seismicity of the Northern China is a specific structure of the region which can manifest seismic activity due to the impact of deformation waves. The genesis of the metastable structure of the region is related to tectonic restructuring of the lithosphere of the SinoKorean craton due to shear displacements in the Tan-Lu megazone. Regional variations of compositions of mantle xenoliths of the Sikhote Alin orogeny demonstrate that the latent strike of the Tan-Lu faults can be traced across the south-eastern areas of Russia to the Tatar Strait. These faults are borders of the Vshaped mantle block (400 x 1500 km (Figure 5, which composition is characterized by an anomalous content of iron and a low depletion of peridotites. The tectonic mantle block maintains its activity; being impacted by compression from the west, it is squeezed out towards

  16. The effect of compliant prisms on subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotto, Gabriel C.; Dunham, Eric M.; Jeppson, Tamara N.; Tobin, Harold J.

    2017-01-01

    Earthquakes generate tsunamis by coseismically deforming the seafloor, and that deformation is largely controlled by the shallow rupture process. Therefore, in order to better understand how earthquakes generate tsunamis, one must consider the material structure and frictional properties of the shallowest part of the subduction zone, where ruptures often encounter compliant sedimentary prisms. Compliant prisms have been associated with enhanced shallow slip, seafloor deformation, and tsunami heights, particularly in the context of tsunami earthquakes. To rigorously quantify the role compliant prisms play in generating tsunamis, we perform a series of numerical simulations that directly couple dynamic rupture on a dipping thrust fault to the elastodynamic response of the Earth and the acoustic response of the ocean. Gravity is included in our simulations in the context of a linearized Eulerian description of the ocean, which allows us to model tsunami generation and propagation, including dispersion and related nonhydrostatic effects. Our simulations span a three-dimensional parameter space of prism size, prism compliance, and sub-prism friction - specifically, the rate-and-state parameter b - a that determines velocity-weakening or velocity-strengthening behavior. We find that compliant prisms generally slow rupture velocity and, for larger prisms, generate tsunamis more efficiently than subduction zones without prisms. In most but not all cases, larger, more compliant prisms cause greater amounts of shallow slip and larger tsunamis. Furthermore, shallow friction is also quite important in determining overall slip; increasing sub-prism b - a enhances slip everywhere along the fault. Counterintuitively, we find that in simulations with large prisms and velocity-strengthening friction at the base of the prism, increasing prism compliance reduces rather than enhances shallow slip and tsunami wave height.

  17. Variation of radon flux along active fault zones in association with earthquake occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papastefanou, C.

    2010-01-01

    Radon flux measurements were carried out at three radon stations along an active fault zone in the Langadas basin, Northern Greece by various techniques for earthquake prediction studies. Specially made devices with alpha track-etch detectors (ATDs) were installed by using LR-115, type II, non-strippable cellulose nitrate films (integrating method of measurements). Continuous monitoring of radon gas exhaling from the ground was also performed by using silicon diode detectors, Barasol and Clipperton type, in association with various probes and sensors including simultaneously registration of the meteorological parameters, such as precipitation height (rainfall events), temperature and barometric pressure. The obtained radon data were studied in parallel with the data of seismic events, such as the magnitude, M L of earthquakes, the epicentral distance, the hypocentral distance and the energy released during the earthquake event occurred at the fault zone during the period of measurements to find out any association between the rad on flux and the meteorological and seismological parameters. Seismic events with magnitude M L ≥ 4.0 appeared to be preceded by large precursory signals produced a well-defined 'anomaly' (peak) of radon flux prior to the event. In the results, the radon peaks in the obtained spectra appeared to be sharp and narrow. The rise time of a radon peak, that is the time period from the onset of a radon peak until the time of radon flux maximum is about a week, while the after time, that is the time interval between the time of radon flux maximum and the time of a seismic event ranges from about 3 weeks or more.

  18. Preliminary earthquake locations in the Kenai Peninsula recorded by the MOOS Array and their relationship to structure in the 1964 great earthquake zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Abers, G. A.; Christensen, D. H.; Kim, Y.; Calkins, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    Earthquakes in subduction zones are mostly generated at the interface between the subducting and overlying plates. In 2006-2009, the MOOS (Multidisciplinary Observations Of Subduction) seismic array was deployed around the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, consisting of 34 broadband seismometers recording for 1-3 years. This region spans the eastern end of the Aleutian megathrust that ruptured in the 1964 Mw 9.2 great earthquake, the second largest recorded earthquake, and ongoing seismicity is abundant. Here, we report an initial analysis of seismicity recorded by MOOS, in the context of preliminary imaging. There were 16,462 events detected in one year from initial STA/LTA signal detections and subsequent event associations from the MOOS Array. We manually reviewed them to eliminate distant earthquakes and noise, leaving 11,879 local earthquakes. To refine this catalog, an adaptive auto-regressive onset estimation algorithm was applied, doubling the original dataset and producing 20,659 P picks and 22,999 S picks for one month (September 2007). Inspection shows that this approach lead to almost negligible false alarms and many more events than hand picking. Within the well-sampled part of the array, roughly 200 km by 300 km, we locate 250% more earthquakes for one month than the permanent network catalog, or 10 earthquakes per day on this patch of the megathrust. Although the preliminary locations of earthquakes still show some scatter, we can see a concentration of events in a ~20-km-wide belt, part of which can be interpreted as seismogenic thrust zone. In conjunction with the seismicity study, we are imaging the plate interface with receiver functions. The main seismicity zone corresponds to the top of a low-velocity layer imaged in receiver functions, nominally attributed to the top of the downgoing plate. As we refine velocity models and apply relative relocation algorithms, we expect to improve the precision of the locations substantially. When combined with image

  19. Subduction zone and crustal dynamics of western Washington; a tectonic model for earthquake hazards evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Dal; Villaseñor, Antonio; Benz, Harley

    1999-01-01

    The Cascadia subduction zone is extremely complex in the western Washington region, involving local deformation of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate and complicated block structures in the crust. It has been postulated that the Cascadia subduction zone could be the source for a large thrust earthquake, possibly as large as M9.0. Large intraplate earthquakes from within the subducting Juan de Fuca plate beneath the Puget Sound region have accounted for most of the energy release in this century and future such large earthquakes are expected. Added to these possible hazards is clear evidence for strong crustal deformation events in the Puget Sound region near faults such as the Seattle fault, which passes through the southern Seattle metropolitan area. In order to understand the nature of these individual earthquake sources and their possible interrelationship, we have conducted an extensive seismotectonic study of the region. We have employed P-wave velocity models developed using local earthquake tomography as a key tool in this research. Other information utilized includes geological, paleoseismic, gravity, magnetic, magnetotelluric, deformation, seismicity, focal mechanism and geodetic data. Neotectonic concepts were tested and augmented through use of anelastic (creep) deformation models based on thin-plate, finite-element techniques developed by Peter Bird, UCLA. These programs model anelastic strain rate, stress, and velocity fields for given rheological parameters, variable crust and lithosphere thicknesses, heat flow, and elevation. Known faults in western Washington and the main Cascadia subduction thrust were incorporated in the modeling process. Significant results from the velocity models include delineation of a previously studied arch in the subducting Juan de Fuca plate. The axis of the arch is oriented in the direction of current subduction and asymmetrically deformed due to the effects of a northern buttress mapped in the velocity models. This

  20. Electromagnetic Energy Released in the Subduction (Benioff) Zone in Weeks Previous to Earthquake Occurrence in Central Peru and the Estimation of Earthquake Magnitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heraud, J. A.; Centa, V. A.; Bleier, T.

    2017-12-01

    During the past four years, magnetometers deployed in the Peruvian coast have been providing evidence that the ULF pulses received are indeed generated at the subduction or Benioff zone and are connected with the occurrence of earthquakes within a few kilometers of the source of such pulses. This evidence was presented at the AGU 2015 Fall meeting, showing the results of triangulation of pulses from two magnetometers located in the central area of Peru, using data collected during a two-year period. Additional work has been done and the method has now been expanded to provide the instantaneous energy released at the stress areas on the Benioff zone during the precursory stage, before an earthquake occurs. Collected data from several events and in other parts of the country will be shown in a sequential animated form that illustrates the way energy is released in the ULF part of the electromagnetic spectrum. The process has been extended in time and geographical places. Only pulses associated with the occurrence of earthquakes are taken into account in an area which is highly associated with subduction-zone seismic events and several pulse parameters have been used to estimate a function relating the magnitude of the earthquake with the value of a function generated with those parameters. The results shown, including the animated data video, constitute additional work towards the estimation of the magnitude of an earthquake about to occur, based on electromagnetic pulses that originated at the subduction zone. The method is providing clearer evidence that electromagnetic precursors in effect conveys physical and useful information prior to the advent of a seismic event

  1. Characteristics of global strong earthquakes and their implications ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    11

    as important sources for describing the present-day stress field and regime. ..... happened there will indicate relative movements between Pacific plate and Australia ... time, and (b) earthquake slip occurs in the direction of maximum shear stress .... circum-pacific seismic belt and the Himalaya collision boundary as shown in ...

  2. Earthquake and nuclear explosion location using the global seismic network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez, L.M.

    1983-01-01

    The relocation of nuclear explosions, aftershock sequence and regional seismicity is addressed by using joint hypocenter determination, Lomnitz' distance domain location, and origin time and earthquake depth determination with local observations. Distance domain and joint hypocenter location are used for a stepwise relocation of nuclear explosions in the USSR. The resulting origin times are 2.5 seconds earlier than those obtained by ISC. Local travel times from the relocated explosions are compared to Jeffreys-Bullen tables. P times are found to be faster at 9-30 0 distances, the largest deviation being around 10 seconds at 13-18 0 . At these distances S travel times also are faster by approximately 20 seconds. The 1977 Sumba earthquake sequence is relocated by iterative joint hypocenter determination of events with most station reports. Simultaneously determined station corrections are utilized for the relocation of smaller aftershocks. The relocated hypocenters indicate that the aftershocks were initially concentrated along the deep trench. Origin times and depths are recalculated for intermediate depth and deep earthquakes using local observations in and around the Japanese Islands. It is found that origin time and depth differ systematically from ISC values for intermediate depth events. Origin times obtained for events below the crust down to 100 km depth are earlier, whereas no general bias seem to exist for origin times of events in the 100-400 km depth range. The recalculated depths for earthquakes shallower than 100 km are shallower than ISC depths. The depth estimates for earthquakes deeper than 100 km were increased by the recalculations

  3. Earthquake and nuclear explosion location using the global seismic network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez, L.M.

    1983-01-01

    The relocation of nuclear explosions, aftershock sequence and regional seismicity is addressed by using joint hypocenter determination, Lomnitz' distance domain location, and origin time and earthquake depth determination with local observations. Distance domain and joint hypocenter location are used for a stepwise relocation of nuclear explosions in the USSR. The resulting origin times are 2.5 seconds earlier than those obtained by ISC. Local travel times from the relocated explosions are compared to Jeffreys-Bullen tables. P times are found to be faster at 9-30/sup 0/ distances, the largest deviation being around 10 seconds at 13-18/sup 0/. At these distances S travel times also are faster by approximately 20 seconds. The 1977 Sumba earthquake sequence is relocated by iterative joint hypocenter determination of events with most station reports. Simultaneously determined station corrections are utilized for the relocation of smaller aftershocks. The relocated hypocenters indicate that the aftershocks were initially concentrated along the deep trench. Origin times and depths are recalculated for intermediate depth and deep earthquakes using local observations in and around the Japanese Islands. It is found that origin time and depth differ systematically from ISC values for intermediate depth events. Origin times obtained for events below the crust down to 100 km depth are earlier, whereas no general bias seem to exist for origin times of events in the 100-400 km depth range. The recalculated depths for earthquakes shallower than 100 km are shallower than ISC depths. The depth estimates for earthquakes deeper than 100 km were increased by the recalculations.

  4. Variations of soil radon and thoron concentrations in a fault zone and prospective earthquakes in SW Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, T.F.; Walia, V.; Chyi, L.L.; Fu, C.C.; Chen, C.-H.; Liu, T.K.; Song, S.R.; Lee, C.Y.; Lee, M.

    2005-01-01

    An automatic station for soil gas monitoring was set up on an active fault zone of SW Taiwan. After more than one year of continuous measurements, some spike-like anomalous high radon and thoron concentrations could be observed. A similar soil radon spectrum was also obtained from an independent monitoring station, which was only 100m away. These anomalous peaks usually occurred a few days or weeks before the earthquakes (M L >=4.5). This indicates that variations of both soil radon and thoron can serve as useful tools for earthquake surveillance, esp. at fault zones

  5. Rupture Complexity Promoted by Damaged Fault Zones in Earthquake Cycle Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idini, B.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Pulse-like ruptures tend to be more sensitive to stress heterogeneity than crack-like ones. For instance, a stress-barrier can more easily stop the propagation of a pulse than that of a crack. While crack-like ruptures tend to homogenize the stress field within their rupture area, pulse-like ruptures develop heterogeneous stress fields. This feature of pulse-like ruptures can potentially lead to complex seismicity with a wide range of magnitudes akin to the Gutenberg-Richter law. Previous models required a friction law with severe velocity-weakening to develop pulses and complex seismicity. Recent dynamic rupture simulations show that the presence of a damaged zone around a fault can induce pulse-like rupture, even under a simple slip-weakening friction law, although the mechanism depends strongly on initial stress conditions. Here we aim at testing if fault zone damage is a sufficient ingredient to generate complex seismicity. In particular, we investigate the effects of damaged fault zones on the emergence and sustainability of pulse-like ruptures throughout multiple earthquake cycles, regardless of initial conditions. We consider a fault bisecting a homogeneous low-rigidity layer (the damaged zone) embedded in an intact medium. We conduct a series of earthquake cycle simulations to investigate the effects of two fault zone properties: damage level D and thickness H. The simulations are based on classical rate-and-state friction, the quasi-dynamic approximation and the software QDYN (https://github.com/ydluo/qdyn). Selected fully-dynamic simulations are also performed with a spectral element method. Our numerical results show the development of complex rupture patterns in some damaged fault configurations, including events of different sizes, as well as pulse-like, multi-pulse and hybrid pulse-crack ruptures. We further apply elasto-static theory to assess how D and H affect ruptures with constant stress drop, in particular the flatness of their slip profile

  6. [Characteristics of Raman spectra of minerals in the veins of Wenchuan earthquake fault zone].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Chao; Zhou, Ben-gang; Liu, Lei; Zhou, Xiao-cheng; Yi, Li; Chen, Zhi; Cui, Yue-ju; Li, Jing; Chen, Zheng-wei; Du, Jian-guo

    2015-01-01

    Quartz in the veins at the Shenxigou section of Wenchuan earthquake fault zone was investigated by micro-Raman spectroscopic measurement, and the distribution of compressive stress in the fault zone was estimated by the frequency shifts of the 464 cm-1 vibrational mode of quartz grains in the veins. It was showed that the 464 cm-1 peak arising from the quartz grains in the veins near the fault plane shifts by 3. 29 cm-1 , and the corresponding compressive stress is 368. 63 MPa, which is significantly lower than the stress accumulation on both sides due to multi-stage events. Stress accumulation increased with moving away from the fault plane in the footwall with the offset of the 464 cm-1 peak arising from the quartz grains in the veins increasing, which can reach 494. 77 MPa at a distance of 21 m with a high offset of 4. 40 cm-1 of the 464 cm-1 peak. The compressive stress gets the maximum value of 519.87 MPa at a distance of 10 m from the fault plane in the hanging wall with the offset of the 464 cm-1 peak arising from the quartz grains in the veins being 4. 62 cm-1, followed by a sudden drop in stress accumulation, and it drops to 359. 59 MPa at a distance of 17 m. Because of moving away from the foult plane at the edge of the foult zone, the stress drops to 359. 59 MPa with a small value of 464 cm-1 peak offset 3. 21 cm-1 at a distance of 27 m from the fault plane in the hanging wall due to the little effect by the fault activity. Therefore, the stress of Wenchuan earthquake fault zone is partially released, but the rest of the stress distribution is uneven, and there is also a high stress accumulation in somewhere in the fault zone, which reflects that the mechanical properties of the rocks in the fault zone have a characteristic of unevenness in space.

  7. Discovery of amorphous carbon veins in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake fault zone: implications for the fault weakening mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, B.; Li, H.

    2013-12-01

    The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake generated 270- and 80-km-long surface ruptures along Yingxiu-Beichuan fault and Guanxian-Anxian fault, respectively. At the outcrop near Hongkou village, southwest segment of Yingxiu-Beichuan rupture, network black amorphous carbon veins were discovered near fault planes in the 190-m-wide earthquake fault zone. These veins are mainly composed of ultrafine- and fine-grained amorphous carbon, usually narrower than 5mm and injected into faults and cracks as far as several meter. Flowage structures like asymmetrical structures around few stiff rock fragments indicate materials flew when the veins formed. Fluidization of cataclastic amorphous carbon and the powerful driving force in the veins imply high pore pressure built up during earthquakes. High pore pressure solution and graphite reported in the fault gouge (Togo et al., 2011) can lead very low dynamic friction during the Wenchuan earthquake. This deduction hypothesis is in accordance with the very low thermal abnormal measured on the principle fault zone following the Wenchuan earthquake (Mori et al., 2010). Furthermore, network amorphous carbon veins of different generations suggest similar weakening mechanism also worked on historical earthquakes in Longmenshan fault zone. Reference: Brodsky, E. E., Li, H., Mori, J. J., Kano, Y., and Xue, L., 2012, Frictional Stress Measured Through Temperature Profiles in the Wenchuan Scientific Fault Zone Drilling Project. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting. San Francisco, T44B-07 Li, H., Xu, Z., Si, J., Pei, J., Song, S., Sun, Z., and Chevalier, M., 2012, Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Scientific Drilling program (WFSD): Overview and Results. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting. San Francisco, T44B-01 Mori, J. J., Li, H., Wang, H., Kano, Y., Pei, J., Xu, Z., and Brodsky, E. E., 2010, Temperature measurements in the WFSD-1 borehole following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (MW7.9). American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting. San Francisco, T53E

  8. Structural variation along the southwestern Nankai seismogenic zone related to various earthquake phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakanishi, A.; Shimomura, N.; Kodaira, S.; Obana, K.; Takahashi, T.; Yamamoto, Y.; Sato, T.; Kashiwase, K.; Fujimori, H.; Kaneda, Y.; Mochizuki, K.; Kato, A.; Iidaka, T.; Kurashimo, E.; Shinohara, M.; Takeda, T.; Shiomi, K.

    2011-12-01

    In the Nankai Trough subduction seismogenic zone, the Nankai and Tonankai earthquakes had often occurred simultaneously, and caused a great event. In order to reduce a great deal of damage to coastal area from both strong ground motion and tsunami generation, it is necessary to understand rupture synchronization and segmentation of the Nankai megathrust earthquake. For a precise estimate of the rupture area of the Nankai megathrust event, it is important to know the geometry of the subducting Philippine Sea plate and deep subduction structure along the Nankai Trough. To obtain the deep subduction structure of the coseismic rupture area of the Nankai earthquake in 1946 off Shikoku area, the large-scale high-resolution wide-angle seismic study was conducted in 2009 and 2010. In this study, 201 and 200 ocean bottom seismographs were deployed off the Shikoku Island and the Kii channel respectively. A tuned airgun system (7800 cu. in.) shot every 200m along 13 profiles. Airgun shots were also recorded along an onshore seismic profile (prepared by ERI, univ. of Tokyo and NIED) prolonged from the offshore profile off the Kii Peninsula. Long-term observation was conducted for ~9 months by 21 OBSs off the Shikoku area and 20 OBSs off the Kii channel.This research is part of 'Research concerning Interaction Between the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai Earthquakes' funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan. Structural images of the overriding plate indicate the old accreted sediments (the Cretaceous-Tertiary accretionary prism) with the velocity greater than 6km/s extend seaward from off the Shikoku to the Hyuga-nada. Moreover, the young accreted sediments become relatively thinner eastward from off the cape Ashizuri to Muroto. These structural variations might be related to the different rupture pattern of the Nankai event. Structural image of the deep low frequency earthquakes and tremors is shown by using the airgun shots recorded at onshore

  9. Lithospheric Structure of the Incoming Nazca Plate Adjacent to the 2014 Iquique Earthquake Rupture Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, E. K.; Trehu, A. M.; Davenport, K. K.; Roland, E. C.

    2017-12-01

    The 2014 Iquique Mw 8.1 earthquake occurred within a 500-km long segment of the Peru-Chile subduction zone that had not experienced a significant earthquake since 1877. This event did not fill the entire seismic gap and details of the deformation, along with local gravity anomalies, point to a geologic control on slip behavior. To better constrain along-strike changes in geologic or morphologic features and the correlation with earthquake rupture, the 2016 PICTURES (Pisagua-Iquique Crustal Tomography to Understand the Region of the Earthquake Source) experiment collected multichannel seismic (MCS) and ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) data from across the deformation front and incoming Nazca plate within the area of the 2014 earthquake. Here, we provide a first look at MCS reflection data from this experiment that images the Nazca plate along an uninterrupted 170 km line perpendicular to the region of greatest slip, acquired using the R/V Langseth's 12.5 km streamer and 6600 cc gun array. We summarize structural features of the incoming oceanic lithosphere and present a preliminary 2D velocity model that spans the Nazca outer rise to the trench along the Iquique Ridge (IR). The IR represents a broad, high oceanic feature (HOF) that roughly spans the entire seismic gap. The source of buoyancy and reduced seismic velocities of the IR swell are thought to be produced by isostatically compensated, overthickened crust or anomalously low density mantle due to heating or serpentinization, and we explore these two hypotheses using our preliminary velocity model. Past outer rise deformation modeling suggests a significant bending moment and vertical force at the trench axis, a source for broad, homogenous coupling as the HOF converges the margin. However, decreased incoming sediment and rough topography associated with numerous large seamounts may also lead to a thin subduction channel, influencing heterogeneous rupture behavior. Seaward of the Iquique 2014 event, our initial

  10. A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr [Karadeniz Technical University, Department of Geophysics, Trabzon/Turkey (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı/Turkey (Turkey)

    2016-04-18

    North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson method the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M{sub S}=7.3 and 1897, M{sub S}=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M{sub S} magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9) %99

  11. A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Türker, Tuğba; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2016-01-01

    North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson method the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M_S=7.3 and 1897, M_S=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M_S magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9) %99 with an earthquake

  12. Preliminary Results on Earthquake Recurrence Intervals, Rupture Segmentation, and Potential Earthquake Moment Magnitudes along the Tahoe-Sierra Frontal Fault Zone, Lake Tahoe, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howle, J.; Bawden, G. W.; Schweickert, R. A.; Hunter, L. E.; Rose, R.

    2012-12-01

    Utilizing high-resolution bare-earth LiDAR topography, field observations, and earlier results of Howle et al. (2012), we estimate latest Pleistocene/Holocene earthquake-recurrence intervals, propose scenarios for earthquake-rupture segmentation, and estimate potential earthquake moment magnitudes for the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone (TSFFZ), west of Lake Tahoe, California. We have developed a new technique to estimate the vertical separation for the most recent and the previous ground-rupturing earthquakes at five sites along the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments of the TSFFZ. At these sites are fault scarps with two bevels separated by an inflection point (compound fault scarps), indicating that the cumulative vertical separation (VS) across the scarp resulted from two events. This technique, modified from the modeling methods of Howle et al. (2012), uses the far-field plunge of the best-fit footwall vector and the fault-scarp morphology from high-resolution LiDAR profiles to estimate the per-event VS. From this data, we conclude that the adjacent and overlapping Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments have ruptured coseismically twice during the Holocene. The right-stepping, en echelon range-front segments of the TSFFZ show progressively greater VS rates and shorter earthquake-recurrence intervals from southeast to northwest. Our preliminary estimates suggest latest Pleistocene/ Holocene earthquake-recurrence intervals of 4.8±0.9x103 years for a coseismic rupture of the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments, located at the southeastern end of the TSFFZ. For the Rubicon Peak segment, northwest of the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments, our preliminary estimate of the maximum earthquake-recurrence interval is 2.8±1.0x103 years, based on data from two sites. The correspondence between high VS rates and short recurrence intervals suggests that earthquake sequences along the TSFFZ may initiate in the northwest part of the zone and then occur to the southeast with a lower

  13. GPS measurements and finite element modeling of the earthquake cycle along the Middle America subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correa Mora, Francisco

    We model surface deformation recorded by GPS stations along the Pacific coasts of Mexico and Central America to estimate the magnitude of and variations in frictional locking (coupling) along the subduction interface, toward a better understanding of seismic hazard in these earthquake-prone regions. The first chapter describes my primary analysis technique, namely 3-dimensional finite element modeling to simulate subduction and bounded-variable inversions that optimize the fit to the GPS velocity field. This chapter focuses on and describes interseismic coupling of the Oaxaca segment of the Mexican subduction zone and introduces an analysis of transient slip events that occur in this region. Our results indicate that coupling is strong within the rupture zone of the 1978 Ms=7.8 Oaxaca earthquake, making this region a potential source of a future large earthquake. However, we also find evidence for significant variations in coupling on the subduction interface over distances of only tens of kilometers, decreasing toward the outer edges of the 1978 rupture zone. In the second chapter, we study in more detail some of the slow slip events that have been recorded over a broad area of southern Mexico, with emphasis on their space-time behavior. Our modeling indicates that transient deformation beneath southern Mexico is focused in two distinct slip patches mostly located downdip from seismogenic areas beneath Guerrero and Oaxaca. Contrary to conclusions reached in one previous study, we find no evidence for a spatial or temporal correlation between transient slip that occurs in these two widely separated source regions. Finally, chapter three extends the modeling techniques to new GPS data in Central America, where subduction coupling is weak or zero and the upper plate deformation is much more complex than in Mexico. Cocos-Caribbean plate convergence beneath El Salvador and Nicaragua is accompanied by subduction and trench-parallel motion of the forearc. Our GPS

  14. Heterogeneous slip and rupture models of the San Andreas fault zone based upon three-dimensional earthquake tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foxall, William [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    1992-11-01

    Crystal fault zones exhibit spatially heterogeneous slip behavior at all scales, slip being partitioned between stable frictional sliding, or fault creep, and unstable earthquake rupture. An understanding the mechanisms underlying slip segmentation is fundamental to research into fault dynamics and the physics of earthquake generation. This thesis investigates the influence that large-scale along-strike heterogeneity in fault zone lithology has on slip segmentation. Large-scale transitions from the stable block sliding of the Central 4D Creeping Section of the San Andreas, fault to the locked 1906 and 1857 earthquake segments takes place along the Loma Prieta and Parkfield sections of the fault, respectively, the transitions being accomplished in part by the generation of earthquakes in the magnitude range 6 (Parkfield) to 7 (Loma Prieta). Information on sub-surface lithology interpreted from the Loma Prieta and Parkfield three-dimensional crustal velocity models computed by Michelini (1991) is integrated with information on slip behavior provided by the distributions of earthquakes located using, the three-dimensional models and by surface creep data to study the relationships between large-scale lithological heterogeneity and slip segmentation along these two sections of the fault zone.

  15. Global Patterns of Legacy Nitrate Storage in the Vadose Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascott, M.; Gooddy, D.; Wang, L.; Stuart, M.; Lewis, M.; Ward, R.; Binley, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Global-scale nitrogen (N) budgets have been developed to quantify the impact of man's influence on the nitrogen cycle. However, these budgets often do not consider legacy effects such as accumulation of nitrate in the deep vadose zone. In this presentation we show that the vadose zone is an important store of nitrate which should be considered in future nitrogen budgets for effective policymaking. Using estimates of depth to groundwater and nitrate leaching for 1900-2000, we quantify for the first time the peak global storage of nitrate in the vadose zone, estimated as 605 - 1814 Teragrams (Tg). Estimates of nitrate storage are validated using previous national and basin scale estimates of N storage and observed groundwater nitrate data for North America and Europe. Nitrate accumulation per unit area is greatest in North America, China and Central and Eastern Europe where thick vadose zones are present and there is an extensive history of agriculture. In these areas the long solute travel time in the vadose zone means that the anticipated impact of changes in agricultural practices on groundwater quality may be substantially delayed. We argue that in these areas use of conventional nitrogen budget approaches is inappropriate and their continued use will lead to significant errors.

  16. Low Velocity Zones along the San Jacinto Fault, Southern California, inferred from Local Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Z.; Yang, H.; Peng, Z.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Vernon, F.

    2013-12-01

    Natural fault zones have regions of brittle damage leading to a low-velocity zone (LVZ) in the immediate vicinity of the main fault interface. The LVZ may amplify ground motion, modify rupture propagation, and impact derivation of earthquke properties. Here we image low-velocity fault zone structures along the San Jacinto Fault (SJF), southern California, using waveforms of local earthquakes that are recorded at several dense arrays across the SJFZ. We use generalized ray theory to compute synthetic travel times to track the direct and FZ-reflected waves bouncing from the FZ boundaries. This method can effectively reduce the trade-off between FZ width and velocity reduction relative to the host rock. Our preliminary results from travel time modeling show the clear signature of LVZs along the SJF, including the segment of the Anza seismic gap. At the southern part near the trifrication area, the LVZ of the Clark Valley branch (array JF) has a width of ~200 m with ~55% reduction in Vp and Vs. This is consistent with what have been suggested from previous studies. In comparison, we find that the velocity reduction relative to the host rock across the Anza seismic gap (array RA) is ~50% for both Vp and Vs, nearly as prominent as that on the southern branches. The width of the LVZ is ~230 m. In addition, the LVZ across the Anza gap appears to locate in the northeast side of the RA array, implying potential preferred propagation direction of past ruptures.

  17. Systematic deficiency of aftershocks in areas of high coseismic slip for large subduction zone earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetzler, Nadav; Lay, Thorne; Brodsky, Emily E.; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2018-01-01

    Fault slip during plate boundary earthquakes releases a portion of the shear stress accumulated due to frictional resistance to relative plate motions. Investigation of 101 large [moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 7] subduction zone plate boundary mainshocks with consistently determined coseismic slip distributions establishes that 15 to 55% of all master event–relocated aftershocks with Mw ≥ 5.2 are located within the slip regions of the mainshock ruptures and few are located in peak slip regions, allowing for uncertainty in the slip models. For the preferred models, cumulative deficiency of aftershocks within the central three-quarters of the scaled slip regions ranges from 15 to 45%, increasing with the total number of observed aftershocks. The spatial gradients of the mainshock coseismic slip concentrate residual shear stress near the slip zone margins and increase stress outside the slip zone, driving both interplate and intraplate aftershock occurrence near the periphery of the mainshock slip. The shear stress reduction in large-slip regions during the mainshock is generally sufficient to preclude further significant rupture during the aftershock sequence, consistent with large-slip areas relocking and not rupturing again for a substantial time. PMID:29487902

  18. Foreshock patterns preceding large earthquakes in the subduction zone of Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minadakis, George; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.

    2016-04-01

    Some of the largest earthquakes in the globe occur in the subduction zone of Chile. Therefore, it is of particular interest to investigate foreshock patterns preceding such earthquakes. Foreshocks in Chile were recognized as early as 1960. In fact, the giant (Mw9.5) earthquake of 22 May 1960, which was the largest ever instrumentally recorded, was preceded by 45 foreshocks in a time period of 33h before the mainshock, while 250 aftershocks were recorded in a 33h time period after the mainshock. Four foreshocks were bigger than magnitude 7.0, including a magnitude 7.9 on May 21 that caused severe damage in the Concepcion area. More recently, Brodsky and Lay (2014) and Bedford et al. (2015) reported on foreshock activity before the 1 April 2014 large earthquake (Mw8.2). However, 3-D foreshock patterns in space, time and size were not studied in depth so far. Since such studies require for good seismic catalogues to be available, we have investigated 3-D foreshock patterns only before the recent, very large mainshocks occurring on 27 February 2010 (Mw 8.8), 1 April 2014 (Mw8.2) and 16 September 2015 (Mw8.4). Although our analysis does not depend on a priori definition of short-term foreshocks, our interest focuses in the short-term time frame, that is in the last 5-6 months before the mainshock. The analysis of the 2014 event showed an excellent foreshock sequence consisting by an early-weak foreshock stage lasting for about 1.8 months and by a main-strong precursory foreshock stage that was evolved in the last 18 days before the mainshock. During the strong foreshock period the seismicity concentrated around the mainshock epicenter in a critical area of about 65 km mainly along the trench domain to the south of the mainshock epicenter. At the same time, the activity rate increased dramatically, the b-value dropped and the mean magnitude increased significantly, while the level of seismic energy released also increased. In view of these highly significant seismicity

  19. A gamma-ray approach for hidden faults in the disaster zone of 1995 Kobe earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terakado, Y.

    1997-01-01

    Gamma-ray intensities were measured of the ground on an eastern part of the Kobe urban area, where a strong earthquake occurred in January 1995 killing 6000 people, in order to investigate hidden faults and its relation to the damage of constructions. Several linear alignments of relatively high γ-ray intensity points were detected and at least some of them are considered to be ascribed to small-scale faults. It can be pointed out that the localities of such high γ-ray alignments are almost in accordance with those of relatively highly damaged zones. However, a long and distinct high γ-ray alignment as expected for a large fault which runs through the heavy damage belt does not exist beneath the area, supporting non-fault origin for the overall heavy damage belt. (author)

  20. Detection of Repeating Earthquakes within the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using 2013-2014 Cascadia Initiative Amphibious Network Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenefic, L.; Morton, E.; Bilek, S.

    2017-12-01

    It is well known that subduction zones create the largest earthquakes in the world, like the magnitude 9.5 Chile earthquake in 1960, or the more recent 9.1 magnitude Japan earthquake in 2011, both of which are in the top five largest earthquakes ever recorded. However, off the coast of the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S., the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) remains relatively quiet and modern seismic instruments have not recorded earthquakes of this size in the CSZ. The last great earthquake, a magnitude 8.7-9.2, occurred in 1700 and is constrained by written reports of the resultant tsunami in Japan and dating a drowned forest in the U.S. Previous studies have suggested the margin is most likely segmented along-strike. However, variations in frictional conditions in the CSZ fault zone are not well known. Geodetic modeling indicates that the locked seismogenic zone is likely completely offshore, which may be too far from land seismometers to adequately detect related seismicity. Ocean bottom seismometers, as part of the Cascadia Initiative Amphibious Network, were installed directly above the inferred seismogenic zone, which we use to better detect small interplate seismicity. Using the subspace detection method, this study looks to find new seismogenic zone earthquakes. This subspace detection method uses multiple previously known event templates concurrently to scan through continuous seismic data. Template events that make up the subspace are chosen from events in existing catalogs that likely occurred along the plate interface. Corresponding waveforms are windowed on the nearby Cascadia Initiative ocean bottom seismometers and coastal land seismometers for scanning. Detections that are found by the scan are similar to the template waveforms based upon a predefined threshold. Detections are then visually examined to determine if an event is present. The presence of repeating event clusters can indicate persistent seismic patches, likely corresponding to

  1. Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Source Spectra from an Array of Arrays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, J. S.; Vidale, J. E.

    2011-12-01

    suggests it is more likely that variation in attenuation modulates the spectra. Because the variations in apparent source spectra correlate well with source location, but poorly with receiver location, we infer that near-source attenuation differences likely are much more significant. We conclude that the conventional wisdom may require some revision - that near-source propagation effects may be responsible for some fraction of what has hitherto been attributed to source processes. Moreover, our results further suggest that subduction zone earthquakes do not separate neatly into 'slow' and 'fast' classes, but likely span a continuum.

  2. The Key Role of Eyewitnesses in Rapid Impact Assessment of Global Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.; Etivant, C.; Frobert, L.; Godey, S.

    2014-12-01

    Uncertainties in rapid impact assessments of global earthquakes are intrinsically large because they rely on 3 main elements (ground motion prediction models, building stock inventory and related vulnerability) which values and/or spatial variations are poorly constrained. Furthermore, variations of hypocentral location and magnitude within their respective uncertainty domain can lead to significantly different shaking level for centers of population and change the scope of the disaster. We present the strategy and methods implemented at the Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) to rapidly collect in-situ observations on earthquake effects from eyewitnesses for reducing uncertainties of rapid earthquake impact assessment. It comprises crowdsourced information (online questionnaires, pics) as well as information derived from real time analysis of web traffic (flashourcing technique), and more recently deployment of QCN (Quake Catcher Network) low cost sensors. We underline the importance of merging results of different methods to improve performances and reliability of collected data.We try to better understand and respond to public demands and expectations after earthquakes through improved information services and diversification of information tools (social networks, smartphone app., browsers adds-on…), which, in turn, drive more eyewitnesses to our services and improve data collection. We will notably present our LastQuake Twitter feed (Quakebot) and smartphone applications (IOs and android) which only report earthquakes that matter for the public and authorities, i.e. felt and damaging earthquakes identified thanks to citizen generated information.

  3. Calculation of earthquake rupture histories using a hybrid global search algorithm: Application to the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartzell, S.; Liu, P.

    1996-01-01

    A method is presented for the simultaneous calculation of slip amplitudes and rupture times for a finite fault using a hybrid global search algorithm. The method we use combines simulated annealing with the downhill simplex method to produce a more efficient search algorithm then either of the two constituent parts. This formulation has advantages over traditional iterative or linearized approaches to the problem because it is able to escape local minima in its search through model space for the global optimum. We apply this global search method to the calculation of the rupture history for the Landers, California, earthquake. The rupture is modeled using three separate finite-fault planes to represent the three main fault segments that failed during this earthquake. Both the slip amplitude and the time of slip are calculated for a grid work of subfaults. The data used consist of digital, teleseismic P and SH body waves. Long-period, broadband, and short-period records are utilized to obtain a wideband characterization of the source. The results of the global search inversion are compared with a more traditional linear-least-squares inversion for only slip amplitudes. We use a multi-time-window linear analysis to relax the constraints on rupture time and rise time in the least-squares inversion. Both inversions produce similar slip distributions, although the linear-least-squares solution has a 10% larger moment (7.3 ?? 1026 dyne-cm compared with 6.6 ?? 1026 dyne-cm). Both inversions fit the data equally well and point out the importance of (1) using a parameterization with sufficient spatial and temporal flexibility to encompass likely complexities in the rupture process, (2) including suitable physically based constraints on the inversion to reduce instabilities in the solution, and (3) focusing on those robust rupture characteristics that rise above the details of the parameterization and data set.

  4. Types of damage that could result from a great earthquake in the New Madrid, Missouri, seismic zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopper, M.G.; Algermissen, S.T.

    1984-01-01

    In the winter of 1811–1812 a series of three great earthquakes occurred in the New Madrid seismic zone. In addition to the three principal shocks, at least 15 other earthquakes, Io ≥ VIII, occurred within a year of the first large earthquake on December 16, 1811. The three main shocks were felt over the entire eastern United States. They were strong enough to cause minor damage as far away as Indiana and Ohio on the north, the Carolinas on the east, and southern Mississippi on the south. They were strong enough to cause severe or structural damage in parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The section of this poster titled "Seismic history of the New Madrid region" describes what happened in the epicentral region. Fortunately, few people lived in the severely shaken area in 1811; that is not the case today. What would happen if a series of earthquakes as large and numerous as the "New Madrid" earthquakes were to occur in the New Madrid seismic zone today?

  5. Chile's seismogenic coupling zones - geophysical and neotectonic observations from the South American subduction zone prior to the Maule 2010 earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oncken With Tipteq, Onno; Ipoc Research Groups

    2010-05-01

    supported from recent findings along the exhumed, fossil seismogenic coupling zone of the European Alps. The data provide additional evidence that the degree of interseismic locking is closely mirrored by subsequent megathrust failure as evidenced by the slip and aftershock pattern of the Maule 2010 earthquake. Neogene surface deformation in Chile has been complex exhibiting tectonically uplifting areas along the coast driven by interseismically active reverse faulting. In addition, we observe coseismically subsiding domains along other parts of the coast. Moreover, the coseismic and interseismic vertical displacement identified is not coincident with long-term vertical motion that probably is superseded by slow basal underplating or tectonic erosion occurring at the downdip parts of the seismogenic zone causing discontinuous uplift. Analogue and numerical modelling lend additional support to the kinematic patterns linking slip at the seismogenic coupling zone and upper plate response. Finally we note that the characteristic peninsulas along the South American margin constitute stable rupture boundaries/barriers and appear to have done so for a protracted time as evidenced by their long-term uplift history since at least the Late Pliocene that points to anomalous properties of the plate interface affecting the mode of strain accumulation and plate interface rupture.

  6. The ANSS response to the Mw 5.8 Central Virginia Seismic Zone earthquake of August 23, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, D. E.; Horton, S.; Benz, H.; Earle, P. S.; Withers, M. M.; Hayes, G. P.; Kim, W. Y.; Chapman, M. C.; Herrmann, R. B.; Petersen, M. D.; Williams, R. A.

    2011-12-01

    An Mw 5.8 earthquake (depth=6km) occurred on August 23, 2011 (17:51:04 UTC) near Mineral, Virginia, which was widely felt from Maine to Georgia along the eastern seaboard and west to Chicago and western Tennessee. The USGS tallied nearly 142,000 felt reports submitted to the Did You Feel It (DYFI) internet community intensity system, making it the most widely felt earthquake since the web-site began, and demonstrating that more people felt this earthquake than any other in U.S. history. Significant damage was reported in the epicentral area and as far away as Washington D.C. (135 km away); minor damage was reported in Baltimore (200 km). The reverse faulting earthquake occurred on a northeast-striking plane within a region of diffuse seismicity known as the Central Virginia Seismic Zone. Within the first week, the mainshock was followed by 17 aftershocks with magnitude greater than 2, including Mw 4.5, 4.2, and 3.8 events. In the days following the mainshock, 46 portable seismic stations were deployed by several organizations, making this among the best-recorded aftershock sequence in the eastern U.S. Within 24 hours of the mainshock, 8 portable stations were deployed in time to record the largest aftershock to date (M4.5). We will present the results of our post-earthquake response, including attenuation and site amplification observations using portable aftershock station data, details on the initial USGS NEIC post earthquake response products and an assessment of the seismotectonics of the Central Virginia Seismic Zone based on aftershock locations and source parameter modeling of the larger earthquakes.

  7. Fukushima, Into the Forbidden Zone - A Trip through Hell and High Water in Post-earthquake Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vollmann, William T.

    2012-01-01

    Just weeks after earthquake and tsunami struck Japan, the author ventured into the nuclear hot zone of the Fukushima Daiichi plant, outfitted only with rubber gloves, a cloth face-mask, and armed with a capricious dosimeter. He emerged with a haunting report on daily life in a now-ravaged Japan, a country he has known and loved for many years. He stopped to interview people in the cities and towns hit hardest by the earthquake, the tsunami, and the radioactive contamination. The answers he could get are sometimes surprising, in particular regarding the kindness and enduring spirit of the people he encountered and considering what was going on in their lives

  8. Assessment of impact of strong earthquakes to the global economy by example of Thoku event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Sergey, Baranov; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova

    2016-04-01

    We examine the economic consequences of strong earthquakes by example of M9 Tahoku one that occurred on March 11, 2011 close to the northeast shore of Japanese coast Honshu. This earthquake became the strongest in the whole history of the seismological observations in this part of the planet. The generated tsunami killed more than 15,700 people, damaged 332,395 buildings and 2,126 roads. The total economic loss in Japan was estimated at 309 billion. The catastrophe in Japan also impacted global economy. To estimate its impact, we used regional and global stock indexes, production indexes, stock prices of the main Japanese, European and US companies, import and export dynamics, as well as the data provided by the custom of Japan. We also demonstrated that the catastrophe substantially affected the markets and on the short run in some indicators it even exceeded the effect of the global financial crisis of 2008. The last strong earthquake occurred in Nepal (25.04.2015, M7.8) and Chile (16.09.2015, M8.3), both actualized the research of cost assessments of the overall economic impact of seismic hazard. We concluded that it is necessary to treat strong earthquakes as one very important factor that affects the world economy depending on their location. The research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project 16-06-00056A).

  9. Facilitating open global data use in earthquake source modelling to improve geodetic and seismological approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudhaus, Henriette; Heimann, Sebastian; Steinberg, Andreas; Isken, Marius; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes

    2017-04-01

    In the last few years impressive achievements have been made in improving inferences about earthquake sources by using InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) data. Several factors aided these developments. The open data basis of earthquake observations has expanded vastly with the two powerful Sentinel-1 SAR sensors up in space. Increasing computer power allows processing of large data sets for more detailed source models. Moreover, data inversion approaches for earthquake source inferences are becoming more advanced. By now data error propagation is widely implemented and the estimation of model uncertainties is a regular feature of reported optimum earthquake source models. Also, more regularly InSAR-derived surface displacements and seismological waveforms are combined, which requires finite rupture models instead of point-source approximations and layered medium models instead of homogeneous half-spaces. In other words the disciplinary differences in geodetic and seismological earthquake source modelling shrink towards common source-medium descriptions and a source near-field/far-field data point of view. We explore and facilitate the combination of InSAR-derived near-field static surface displacement maps and dynamic far-field seismological waveform data for global earthquake source inferences. We join in the community efforts with the particular goal to improve crustal earthquake source inferences in generally not well instrumented areas, where often only the global backbone observations of earthquakes are available provided by seismological broadband sensor networks and, since recently, by Sentinel-1 SAR acquisitions. We present our work on modelling standards for the combination of static and dynamic surface displacements in the source's near-field and far-field, e.g. on data and prediction error estimations as well as model uncertainty estimation. Rectangular dislocations and moment-tensor point sources are exchanged by simple planar finite

  10. Comparisons of Source Characteristics between Recent Inland Crustal Earthquake Sequences inside and outside of Niigata-Kobe Tectonic Zone, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somei, K.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Miyakoshi, K.

    2012-12-01

    After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, many M7-class inland earthquakes occurred in Japan. Some of those events (e.g., the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake) occurred in a tectonic zone which is characterized as a high strain rate zone by the GPS observation (Sagiya et al., 2000) or dense distribution of active faults. That belt-like zone along the coast in Japan Sea side of Tohoku and Chubu districts, and north of Kinki district, is called as the Niigata-Kobe tectonic zone (NKTZ, Sagiya et al, 2000). We investigate seismic scaling relationship for recent inland crustal earthquake sequences in Japan and compare source characteristics between events occurring inside and outside of NKTZ. We used S-wave coda part for estimating source spectra. Source spectral ratio is obtained by S-wave coda spectral ratio between the records of large and small events occurring close to each other from nation-wide strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and broad-band seismic network (F-net) to remove propagation-path and site effects. We carefully examined the commonality of the decay of coda envelopes between event-pair records and modeled the observed spectral ratio by the source spectral ratio function with assuming omega-square source model for large and small events. We estimated the corner frequencies and seismic moment (ratio) from those modeled spectral ratio function. We determined Brune's stress drops of 356 events (Mw: 3.1-6.9) in ten earthquake sequences occurring in NKTZ and six sequences occurring outside of NKTZ. Most of source spectra obey omega-square source spectra. There is no obvious systematic difference between stress drops of events in NKTZ zone and others. We may conclude that the systematic tendency of seismic source scaling of the events occurred inside and outside of NKTZ does not exist and the average source scaling relationship can be effective for inland crustal earthquakes. Acknowledgements: Waveform data were provided from K-NET, KiK-net and F-net operated by

  11. Development of the Global Earthquake Model’s neotectonic fault database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christophersen, Annemarie; Litchfield, Nicola; Berryman, Kelvin; Thomas, Richard; Basili, Roberto; Wallace, Laura; Ries, William; Hayes, Gavin P.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Yoshioka, Toshikazu; Koehler, Richard D.; Clark, Dan; Wolfson-Schwehr, Monica; Boettcher, Margaret S.; Villamor, Pilar; Horspool, Nick; Ornthammarath, Teraphan; Zuñiga, Ramon; Langridge, Robert M.; Stirling, Mark W.; Goded, Tatiana; Costa, Carlos; Yeats, Robert

    2015-01-01

    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) aims to develop uniform, openly available, standards, datasets and tools for worldwide seismic risk assessment through global collaboration, transparent communication and adapting state-of-the-art science. GEM Faulted Earth (GFE) is one of GEM’s global hazard module projects. This paper describes GFE’s development of a modern neotectonic fault database and a unique graphical interface for the compilation of new fault data. A key design principle is that of an electronic field notebook for capturing observations a geologist would make about a fault. The database is designed to accommodate abundant as well as sparse fault observations. It features two layers, one for capturing neotectonic faults and fold observations, and the other to calculate potential earthquake fault sources from the observations. In order to test the flexibility of the database structure and to start a global compilation, five preexisting databases have been uploaded to the first layer and two to the second. In addition, the GFE project has characterised the world’s approximately 55,000 km of subduction interfaces in a globally consistent manner as a basis for generating earthquake event sets for inclusion in earthquake hazard and risk modelling. Following the subduction interface fault schema and including the trace attributes of the GFE database schema, the 2500-km-long frontal thrust fault system of the Himalaya has also been characterised. We propose the database structure to be used widely, so that neotectonic fault data can make a more complete and beneficial contribution to seismic hazard and risk characterisation globally.

  12. Seismic waves and earthquakes in a global monolithic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roubíček, Tomáš

    2018-03-01

    The philosophy that a single "monolithic" model can "asymptotically" replace and couple in a simple elegant way several specialized models relevant on various Earth layers is presented and, in special situations, also rigorously justified. In particular, global seismicity and tectonics is coupled to capture, e.g., (here by a simplified model) ruptures of lithospheric faults generating seismic waves which then propagate through the solid-like mantle and inner core both as shear (S) or pressure (P) waves, while S-waves are suppressed in the fluidic outer core and also in the oceans. The "monolithic-type" models have the capacity to describe all the mentioned features globally in a unified way together with corresponding interfacial conditions implicitly involved, only when scaling its parameters appropriately in different Earth's layers. Coupling of seismic waves with seismic sources due to tectonic events is thus an automatic side effect. The global ansatz is here based, rather for an illustration, only on a relatively simple Jeffreys' viscoelastic damageable material at small strains whose various scaling (limits) can lead to Boger's viscoelastic fluid or even to purely elastic (inviscid) fluid. Self-induced gravity field, Coriolis, centrifugal, and tidal forces are counted in our global model, as well. The rigorous mathematical analysis as far as the existence of solutions, convergence of the mentioned scalings, and energy conservation is briefly presented.

  13. Characteristics of global strong earthquakes and their implications ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ju Wei

    2017-10-06

    Oct 6, 2017 ... 72. 024. 127. 037. SS. 19760727-194211. 39.52. 118.03 015.0. 7.6. 126 ...... (4) Misfit, regime and quality rank: average misfit angle, stress ... angular misfit until all misfit angles fall below .... present global tectonic framework.

  14. Deformation of conjugate compliant fault zones induced by the 2013 Mw7.7 Baluchistan (Pakistan) earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Rishabh; Wang, Teng; Feng, Guangcai; Harrington, Jonathan; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes; Jónsson, Sigurjón

    2017-04-01

    Strain localizations in compliant fault zones (with elastic moduli lower than the surrounding rocks) induced by nearby earthquakes have been detected using geodetic observations in a few cases in the past. Here we observe small-scale changes in interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements along multiple conjugate faults near the rupture of the 2013 Mw7.7 Baluchistan (Pakistan) earthquake. After removing the main coseismic deformation signal in the interferograms and correcting them for topography-related phase, we observe 2-3 cm signal along several conjugate faults that are 15-30 km from the mainshock fault rupture. These conjugate compliant faults have strikes of N30°E and N45°W. The sense of motion indicates left-lateral deformation across the N30°E faults and right-lateral deformation across the N45°W faults, which suggests the conjugate faults were subjected to extensional coseismic stresses along the WSW-ENE direction. The spacing between the different sets of faults is around 5 to 8 km. We explain the observed strain localizations as an elastic response of the compliant conjugate faults induced by the Baluchistan earthquake. Using 3D Finite Element models (FEM), we impose coseismic static displacements due to the earthquake along the boundaries of the FEM domain to reproduce the coseismic stress changes acting across the compliant faults. The InSAR measurements are used to constrain the geometry and rigidity variations of the compliant faults with respect to the surrounding rocks. The best fitting models show the compliant fault zones to have a width of 0.5 km to 2 km and a reduction of the shear modulus by a factor of 3 to 4. Our study yields similar values as were found for compliant fault zones near the 1992 Landers and the 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes in California, although here the strain localization is occurring on more complex conjugate sets of faults.

  15. Postseismic deformation following the June 2000 earthquake sequence in the south Iceland seismic zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnadottir, T.; Jonsson, Sigurjon; Pollitz, F.F.; Jiang, W.; Feigl, K.L.

    2005-01-01

    We observe postseismic deformation on two spatiotemporal scales following Mw = 6.5 earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone on 17 and 21 June 2000. We see a rapidly decaying deformation transient lasting no more than 2 months and extending about 5 km away from the two main shock ruptures. This local, month-scale transient is captured by several radar interferograms and is also observed at a few campaign GPS sites located near the faults. A slower transient with a characteristic timescale of about a year is detected only by GPS measurements. The month-scale deformation pattern has been explained by poroelastic rebound due to postearthquake pore pressure changes. In contrast, the year-scale deformation can be explained by either afterslip at 8-14 km depth or viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle in response to the coseismic stress changes. The optimal viscoelastic models have lower crustal viscosities of 0.5-1 ?? 1019 Pa s and upper mantle viscosity of ???3 ?? 1018 Pa s. Because of the limitations of our GPS campaign data, we consider both afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation as plausible mechanisms explaining the deformation field. Both types of postseismic deformation models suggest that the areas of large coseismic stress increase east of the 17 June and west of the 21 June ruptures continue to be loaded by the postseismic deformation. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. Fault zone controlled seafloor methane seepage in the rupture area of the 2010 Maule Earthquake, Central Chile

    OpenAIRE

    Geersen, Jacob; Scholz, Florian; Linke, Peter; Schmidt, Mark; Lange, Dietrich; Behrmann, Jan H.; Völker, David; Hensen, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Seafloor seepage of hydrocarbon-bearing fluids has been identified in a number of marine forearcs. However, temporal variations in seep activity and the structural and tectonic parameters that control the seepage often remain poorly constrained. Subduction-zone earthquakes for example, are often discussed to trigger seafloor seepage but causal links that go beyond theoretical considerations have not yet been fully established. This is mainly due to the inaccessibility of offshore epicentral a...

  17. Dynamics of Earthquake Faulting in Subduction Zones: Inference from Pseudotachylytes and Ultracataclasites in an Ancient Accretionary Complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ujiie

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The fault rocks in ancient accretionary complexes exhumed from seismogenic depths may provide an invaluable opportunity to examine the mechanisms and mechanics of seismic slip in subduction thrusts and splay faults. In order to understand the dynamics of earthquake faulting in subduction zones, we analyzed pseudotachylytes and ultracataclasites from the Shimanto accretionary complex in southwest Japan. doi:10.2204/iodp.sd.s01.21.2007

  18. Spatially dependent seismic anisotropy in the Tonga subduction zone: A possible contributor to the complexity of deep earthquakes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vavryčuk, Václav

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 155, 1/2 (2006), s. 63-72 ISSN 0031-9201 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012309; GA ČR GA205/02/0383 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : deep-focus earthquakes * seismic anisotropy * subduction zones Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.440, year: 2006

  19. Kinematics of the 2015 San Ramon, California earthquake swarm: Implications for fault zone structure and driving mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Lian; Bürgmann, Roland; Shelly, David R.; Johnson, Christopher W.; Taira, Taka'aki

    2018-05-01

    Earthquake swarms represent a sudden increase in seismicity that may indicate a heterogeneous fault-zone, the involvement of crustal fluids and/or slow fault slip. Swarms sometimes precede major earthquake ruptures. An earthquake swarm occurred in October 2015 near San Ramon, California in an extensional right step-over region between the northern Calaveras Fault and the Concord-Mt. Diablo fault zone, which has hosted ten major swarms since 1970. The 2015 San Ramon swarm is examined here from 11 October through 18 November using template matching analysis. The relocated seismicity catalog contains ∼4000 events with magnitudes between - 0.2 zone structure with several sets of en échelon fault orientations. The migration of events along the three planar structures indicates a complex fluid and faulting interaction processes. We searched for correlations between seismic activity and tidal stresses and found some suggestive features, but nothing that we can be confident is statistically significant.

  20. Estimation of peak ground accelerations for Mexican subduction zone earthquakes using neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Silvia R; Romo, Miguel P; Mayoral, Juan M [Instituto de Ingenieria, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico D.F. (Mexico)

    2007-01-15

    An extensive analysis of the strong ground motion Mexican data base was conducted using Soft Computing (SC) techniques. A Neural Network NN is used to estimate both orthogonal components of the horizontal (PGAh) and vertical (PGAv) peak ground accelerations measured at rock sites during Mexican subduction zone earthquakes. The work discusses the development, training, and testing of this neural model. Attenuation phenomenon was characterized in terms of magnitude, epicentral distance and focal depth. Neural approximators were used instead of traditional regression techniques due to their flexibility to deal with uncertainty and noise. NN predictions follow closely measured responses exhibiting forecasting capabilities better than those of most established attenuation relations for the Mexican subduction zone. Assessment of the NN, was also applied to subduction zones in Japan and North America. For the database used in this paper the NN and the-better-fitted- regression approach residuals are compared. [Spanish] Un analisis exhaustivo de la base de datos mexicana de sismos fuertes se llevo a cabo utilizando tecnicas de computo aproximado, SC (soft computing). En particular, una red neuronal, NN, es utilizada para estimar ambos componentes ortogonales de la maxima aceleracion horizontal del terreno, PGAh, y la vertical, PGAv, medidas en sitios en roca durante terremotos generados en la zona de subduccion de la Republica Mexicana. El trabajo discute el desarrollo, entrenamiento, y prueba de este modelo neuronal. El fenomeno de atenuacion fue caracterizado en terminos de la magnitud, la distancia epicentral y la profundidad focal. Aproximaciones neuronales fueron utilizadas en lugar de tecnicas de regresion tradicionales por su flexibilidad para tratar con incertidumbre y ruido en los datos. La NN sigue de cerca la respuesta medida exhibiendo capacidades predictivas mejores que las mostradas por muchas de las relaciones de atenuacion establecidas para la zona de

  1. Seismic Attenuation Tomography of the Rupture Zone of the 2010 Maule, Chile, Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torpey, M. E.; Russo, R. M.; Panning, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    We used measurements of differential S to P seismic attenuation in the rupture zone of the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake (33°S-38°S) to characterize the seismic attenuation structure of the South American crust and upper mantle wedge. We used data obtained from the IRIS CHAMP rapid-response temporary seismic network, filtered between 0.7-20 Hz. For events with large signal to noise ratios, we visually identified the P and S arrivals on the seismograms and used an evolving time window to determine 400 individual Qs and t* values and their uncertainties using a spectral ratio method. Using a phase pair method allows us to neglect the source-time function and instrument response of each P-S phase pair. Assuming a constant Qp/Qs ratio for a given P-S phase pair, we evaluated the 400 spectral ratios and discarded portions of the evolving time window that incorporate multipathed phases. We recalculated the Qs and standard deviation of the retained window and excluded measurements with standard deviations larger than half of the Qs value. We also excluded measurements that span frequency windows longer than 10 Hz as they contain noise that contaminates Qs measurements. We examined ~200 local events yielding a total of 1,076 path-integrated Q­s measurements. Qs values are low (100-400) for the majority of ray paths evaluated, however we observe a spatial distribution of low path-integrated Qs values (100-300) in the northeastern portion of the rupture zone and higher values (300-600) in the southwest. We divided the rupture zone into cubes and implemented a bounded linear inequality least squares inversion (0

  2. Earthquake source parameter and focal mechanism estimates for the Western Quebec Seismic Zone in eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez Padilla, A. M.; Onwuemeka, J.; Liu, Y.; Harrington, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    The Western Quebec Seismic Zone (WQSZ) is a 160-km-wide band of intraplate seismicity extending 500 km from the Adirondack Highlands (United States) to the Laurentian uplands (Canada). Historically, the WQSZ has experienced over fifteen earthquakes above magnitude 5, with the noteworthy MN5.2 Ladysmith event on May 17, 2013. Previous studies have associated seismicity in the area to the reactivation of Early Paleozoic normal faults within a failed Iapetan rift arm, or strength contrasts between mafic intrusions and felsic rocks due to the Mesozoic track of the Great Meteor hotspot. A good understanding of seismicity and its relation to pre-existing structures requires information about event source properties, such as static stress drop and fault plane orientation, which can be constrained via spectral analysis and focal mechanism solutions. Using data recorded by the CNSN and USArray Transportable Array, we first characterize b-value for 709 events between 2012 and 2016 in WQSZ, obtaining a value of 0.75. We then determine corner frequency and seismic moment values by fitting S-wave spectra on transverse components at all stations for 35 events MN 2.7+. We select event pairs with highly similar waveforms, proximal hypocenters, and magnitudes differing by 1-2 units. Our preliminary results using single-station spectra show corner frequencies of 15 to 40 Hz and stress drop values between 7 and 130 MPa, typical of intraplate seismicity. Last, we solve focal mechanism solutions of 35 events with impulsive P-wave arrivals at a minimum of 8 stations using the hybridMT moment tensor inversion algorithm. Our preliminary results suggest predominantly thrust faulting mechanisms, and at times oblique thrust faulting. The P-axis trend of the focal mechanism solutions suggests a principal stress orientation of NE-SW, which is consistent with that derived from focal mechanisms of earthquakes prior to 2013. We plan to fit the event pair spectral ratios to correct for attenuation

  3. Rupture behaviors of the 2010 Jiashian and 2016 Meinong Earthquakes: Implication for interaction of two asperities on the Chishan Transfer Fault Zone in SW Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian, P. R.; Hung, S. H.; Chen, Y. L.; Meng, L.; Tseng, T. L.

    2017-12-01

    After about 45 years of seismic quiescence, southwest Taiwan was imperiled by two strong earthquakes, the 2010 Mw 6.2 Jiashian and deadly 2016 Mw 6.4 Meinong earthquakes in the last decade. The focal mechanisms and their aftershock distributions imply that both events occurred on NW-SE striking, shallow-dipping fault planes but at different depths of 21 and 16 km, respectively. Here we present the MUSIC back projection images using high-frequency P- and sP-waves recorded in the European and Australian seismic networks, the directivity analysis using global teleseismic P waves and relocated aftershocks to characterize the rupture behaviors of the two mainshocks and explore the potential connection between them. The results for the Meinong event indicate a unilateral, subhorizontal rupture propagating NW-ward 17 km and lasting for 6-7 s [Jian et al., 2017]. For the Jiashian event, the rupture initiated at a greater depth of 21 km and then propagated both NW-ward and up-dip ( 16o) on the fault plane, with a shorter rupture length of 10 km and duration of 4-5 s. The up-dip propagation is corroborated by the 3-D directivity analysis that leads to the widths of P-wave pulses increasing linearly with the directivity parameter. Moreover, relocation of aftershocks reveals that the Jiashian sequence is confined in a NW-SE elongated zone extending 15 km and 5 km shallower than the hypocenter. The Meinong aftershock sequence shows three clusters: one surrounding the mainshock hypocenter, another one distributed northwestern and deeper (>20 km) off the rupture plane beneath Tainan, and the other distant shallow-focus one (<10 km) beneath the southern Central Mountain Range. As evidenced by similar focal mechanism, rupture behaviors, as well as the spatial configuration of the mainshock rupture zones and aftershock distributions, we attribute the Jiashian and Meinong earthquakes to two asperities on a buried oblique fault that has been reactivated recently, the NW-SE striking

  4. Swiss Re Global Flood Hazard Zones: Know your flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinukollu, R. K.; Castaldi, A.; Mehlhorn, J.

    2012-12-01

    Floods, among all natural disasters, have a great damage potential. On a global basis, there is strong evidence of increase in the number of people affected and economic losses due to floods. For example, global insured flood losses have increased by 12% every year since 1970 and this is expected to further increase with growing exposure in the high risk areas close to rivers and coastlines. Recently, the insurance industry has been surprised by the large extent of losses, because most countries lack reliable hazard information. One example has been the 2011 Thailand floods where millions of people were affected and the total economic losses were 30 billion USD. In order to assess the flood risk across different regions and countries, the flood team at Swiss Re based on a Geomorphologic Regression approach, developed in house and patented, produced global maps of flood zones. Input data for the study was obtained from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) elevation data, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) and HydroSHEDS. The underlying assumptions of the approach are that naturally flowing rivers shape their channel and flood plain according to basin inherent forces and characteristics and that the flood water extent strongly depends on the shape of the flood plain. On the basis of the catchment characteristics, the model finally calculates the probability of a location to be flooded or not for a defined return period, which in the current study was set to 100 years. The data is produced at a 90-m resolution for latitudes 60S to 60N. This global product is now used in the insurance industry to inspect, inform and/or insure the flood risk across the world.

  5. Spatial Relationships between Deep-focus Earthquakes and Structural Heterogeneities within the Subducting Slabs of the Western Pacific Subduction Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, M.; Kiser, E.; Niu, F.

    2016-12-01

    The nature of deep-focus earthquakes with depths greater than 300 km has long been controversial. Mechanisms that may promote brittle deformation at such depths include dehydration embrittlement, phase transformational faulting, and thermal runaway instabilities. Of these, the most commonly referenced mechanism—phase transformational faulting—involves the breakdown of metastable olivine within the core of a cold subducting slab. Seismic observations of the metastable olivine wedge, as well as its spatial relationship to deep-focus seismicity, are limited. Classical 1-D ray-theory based tomography images indicate that deep-focus hypocenters coincide with the highest wave speed anomalies within the slab, traditionally viewed as the slab's cold core. However, our latest full waveform tomography images of the Kuril, Japan, and Izu-Bonin slabs show systematically deep-focus earthquakes located near the top of high wave speed regions, with hypocentral or centroid locations determined by EHB, global CMT, or JMA. In order to reduce location bias in global CMT solutions due to unmodeled 3-D structure, we relocate tens of deep-focus earthquakes within the new 3-D structural model based on a full wavefield modeling code SPECFEM3D_GLOBE, with seismic waves simulated to the shortest period of 9 seconds. We also determine the centroid locations of high-frequency energy (0.8 Hz-2 Hz) from back-projection results of several large earthquakes to understand how rupture propagates within the slab. The spatial correlations between the 3-D wave speed model and high-precision centroid locations from both long period and high frequency seismic waves further indicate that the deep-focus earthquakes occur and propagate near the top of the subducting slab. We will discuss the constraints that these relationships place on the mechanism of deep-focus earthquakes.

  6. A global biogeographic classification of the mesopelagic zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Tracey T.; Clark, Malcolm R.; Dunn, Daniel C.; Halpin, Patrick N.; Rogers, Alex D.; Guinotte, John; Bograd, Steven J.; Angel, Martin V.; Perez, Jose Angel A.; Wishner, Karen; Haedrich, Richard L.; Lindsay, Dhugal J.; Drazen, Jeffrey C.; Vereshchaka, Alexander; Piatkowski, Uwe; Morato, Telmo; Błachowiak-Samołyk, Katarzyna; Robison, Bruce H.; Gjerde, Kristina M.; Pierrot-Bults, Annelies; Bernal, Patricio; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Heino, Mikko

    2017-08-01

    We have developed a global biogeographic classification of the mesopelagic zone to reflect the regional scales over which the ocean interior varies in terms of biodiversity and function. An integrated approach was necessary, as global gaps in information and variable sampling methods preclude strictly statistical approaches. A panel combining expertise in oceanography, geospatial mapping, and deep-sea biology convened to collate expert opinion on the distributional patterns of pelagic fauna relative to environmental proxies (temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen at mesopelagic depths). An iterative Delphi Method integrating additional biological and physical data was used to classify biogeographic ecoregions and to identify the location of ecoregion boundaries or inter-regions gradients. We define 33 global mesopelagic ecoregions. Of these, 20 are oceanic while 13 are 'distant neritic.' While each is driven by a complex of controlling factors, the putative primary driver of each ecoregion was identified. While work remains to be done to produce a comprehensive and robust mesopelagic biogeography (i.e., reflecting temporal variation), we believe that the classification set forth in this study will prove to be a useful and timely input to policy planning and management for conservation of deep-pelagic marine resources. In particular, it gives an indication of the spatial scale at which faunal communities are expected to be broadly similar in composition, and hence can inform application of ecosystem-based management approaches, marine spatial planning and the distribution and spacing of networks of representative protected areas.

  7. Investigation of Ionospheric Anomalies related to moderate Romanian earthquakes occurred during last decade using VLF/LF INFREP and GNSS Global Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Oikonomou, Christina; Haralambous, Haris; Nastase, Eduard; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Biagi, Pier Francesco; Colella, Roberto; Toma-Danila, Dragos

    2017-04-01

    Ionospheric TEC (Total Electron Content) variations and Low Frequency (LF) signal amplitude data prior to five moderate earthquakes (Mw≥5) occurred in Romania, in Vrancea crustal and subcrustal seismic zones, during the last decade were analyzed using observations from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and the European INFREP (International Network for Frontier Research on Earthquake Precursors) networks respectively, aiming to detect potential ionospheric anomalies related to these events and describe their characteristics. For this, spectral analysis on TEC data and terminator time method on VLF/LF data were applied. It was found that TEC perturbations appeared few days (1-7) up to few hours before the events lasting around 2-3 hours, with periods 20 and 3-5 minutes which could be associated with the impending earthquakes. In addition, in all three events the sunrise terminator times were delayed approximately 20-40 min few days prior and during the earthquake day. Acknowledgments This work was partially supported by the Partnership in Priority Areas Program - PNII, under MEN-UEFISCDI, DARING Project no. 69/2014 and the Nucleu Program - PN 16-35, Project no. 03 01

  8. Fleeing to Fault Zones: Incorporating Syrian Refugees into Earthquake Risk Analysis along the East Anatolian and Dead Sea Rift Fault Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, B.; Paradise, T. R.

    2016-12-01

    The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian Fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into cities, towns, and villages—placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong shaking. Yet, displaced populations are not traditionally captured in data sources used in earthquake risk analysis or loss estimations. Accordingly, we present a district-level analysis assessing the spatial overlap of earthquake hazards and refugee locations in southeastern Turkey to determine how migration patterns are altering seismic risk in the region. Using migration estimates from the U.S. Humanitarian Information Unit, we create three district-level population scenarios that combine official population statistics, refugee camp populations, and low, median, and high bounds for integrated refugee populations. We perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis alongside these population scenarios to map spatial variations in seismic risk between 2011 and late 2015. Our results show a significant relative southward increase of seismic risk for this period due to refugee migration. Additionally, we calculate earthquake fatalities for simulated earthquakes using a semi-empirical loss estimation technique to determine degree of under-estimation resulting from forgoing migration data in loss modeling. We find that including refugee populations increased casualties by 11-12% using median population estimates, and upwards of 20% using high population estimates. These results communicate the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context which unites physical, political, cultural, and socio-economic landscapes. Keywords: Earthquakes, Hazards, Loss-Estimation, Syrian Crisis, Migration

  9. Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk

  10. Dynamic rupture models of subduction zone earthquakes with off-fault plasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wollherr, S.; van Zelst, I.; Gabriel, A. A.; van Dinther, Y.; Madden, E. H.; Ulrich, T.

    2017-12-01

    Modeling tsunami-genesis based on purely elastic seafloor displacement typically underpredicts tsunami sizes. Dynamic rupture simulations allow to analyse whether plastic energy dissipation is a missing rheological component by capturing the complex interplay of the rupture front, emitted seismic waves and the free surface in the accretionary prism. Strike-slip models with off-fault plasticity suggest decreasing rupture speed and extensive plastic yielding mainly at shallow depths. For simplified subduction geometries inelastic deformation on the verge of Coulomb failure may enhance vertical displacement, which in turn favors the generation of large tsunamis (Ma, 2012). However, constraining appropriate initial conditions in terms of fault geometry, initial fault stress and strength remains challenging. Here, we present dynamic rupture models of subduction zones constrained by long-term seismo-thermo-mechanical modeling (STM) without any a priori assumption of regions of failure. The STM model provides self-consistent slab geometries, as well as stress and strength initial conditions which evolve in response to tectonic stresses, temperature, gravity, plasticity and pressure (van Dinther et al. 2013). Coseismic slip and coupled seismic wave propagation is modelled using the software package SeisSol (www.seissol.org), suited for complex fault zone structures and topography/bathymetry. SeisSol allows for local time-stepping, which drastically reduces the time-to-solution (Uphoff et al., 2017). This is particularly important in large-scale scenarios resolving small-scale features, such as the shallow angle between the megathrust fault and the free surface. Our dynamic rupture model uses a Drucker-Prager plastic yield criterion and accounts for thermal pressurization around the fault mimicking the effect of pore pressure changes due to frictional heating. We first analyze the influence of this rheology on rupture dynamics and tsunamigenic properties, i.e. seafloor

  11. ASSESSING URBAN STREETS NETWORK VULNERABILITY AGAINST EARTHQUAKE USING GIS – CASE STUDY: 6TH ZONE OF TEHRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Rastegar

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Great earthquakes cause huge damages to human life. Street networks vulnerability makes the rescue operation to encounter serious difficulties especially at the first 72 hours after the incident. Today, physical expansion and high density of great cities, due to narrow access roads, large distance from medical care centers and location at areas with high seismic risk, will lead to a perilous and unpredictable situation in case of the earthquake. Zone # 6 of Tehran, with 229,980 population (3.6% of city population and 20 km2 area (3.2% of city area, is one of the main municipal zones of Tehran (Iran center of statistics, 2006. Major land-uses, like ministries, embassies, universities, general hospitals and medical centers, big financial firms and so on, manifest the high importance of this region on local and national scale. In this paper, by employing indexes such as access to medical centers, street inclusion, building and population density, land-use, PGA and building quality, vulnerability degree of street networks in zone #6 against the earthquake is calculated through overlaying maps and data in combination with IHWP method and GIS. This article concludes that buildings alongside the streets with high population and building density, low building quality, far to rescue centers and high level of inclusion represent high rate of vulnerability, compared with other buildings. Also, by moving on from north to south of the zone, the vulnerability increases. Likewise, highways and streets with substantial width and low building and population density hold little values of vulnerability.

  12. Nonlinear analyses and failure patterns of typical masonry school buildings in the epicentral zone of the 2016 Italian earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clementi, Cristhian; Clementi, Francesco; Lenci, Stefano

    2017-11-01

    The paper discusses the behavior of typical masonry school buildings in the center of Italy built at the end of 1950s without any seismic guidelines. These structures have faced the recent Italian earthquakes in 2016 without diffuse damages. Global numerical models of the building have been built and masonry material has been simulated as nonlinear. Sensitivity analyses are done to evaluate the reliability of the structural models.

  13. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-01-01

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

  14. Slip rate on the San Diego trough fault zone, inner California Borderland, and the 1986 Oceanside earthquake swarm revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Holly F.; Conrad, James E.; Paull, C.K.; McGann, Mary

    2012-01-01

    The San Diego trough fault zone (SDTFZ) is part of a 90-km-wide zone of faults within the inner California Borderland that accommodates motion between the Pacific and North American plates. Along with most faults offshore southern California, the slip rate and paleoseismic history of the SDTFZ are unknown. We present new seismic reflection data that show that the fault zone steps across a 5-km-wide stepover to continue for an additional 60 km north of its previously mapped extent. The 1986 Oceanside earthquake swarm is located within the 20-km-long restraining stepover. Farther north, at the latitude of Santa Catalina Island, the SDTFZ bends 20° to the west and may be linked via a complex zone of folds with the San Pedro basin fault zone (SPBFZ). In a cooperative program between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI), we measure and date the coseismic offset of a submarine channel that intersects the fault zone near the SDTFZ–SPBFZ junction. We estimate a horizontal slip rate of about 1:5 0:3 mm=yr over the past 12,270 yr.

  15. Relationship of the 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture earthquake with geological structure. Evaluation of earthquake source fault in active folding zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoyagi, Yasuhira; Abe, Shintaro

    2007-01-01

    We compile the important points to evaluate earthquake source fault in active folding zone through a temporary aftershock observation of the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture earthquake. The aftershock distribution shows spindle shape whose middle part is wide and both ends are narrow in NNE-SSW trending. The range of seismic activity corresponds well to the distribution of fold axes in this area, whose middle part is anticlinorium (some anticlines) and both ends are single anticline. In the middle part, the west dipping aftershock plane including the mainshock (M6.8) is located under the Higashiyama anticline. Another west dipping aftershock plane including the largest aftershock (M6.5) is located under the Tamugiyama and Komatsugura anticlines, and the east margin of the aftershock distribution corresponds well with Suwa-toge flexure. Therefore the present fold structure should have been formed by an accumulation of the same faults movement. In other words, it is important to refer the fold axes distribution pattern, especially with flexure, for the evaluation of earthquake source fault. In addition, we performed FEM analyses to investigate the relation of fold structure to the thickness of the sedimentary layer and the dip angle of the fault. Reverse fault movement forms asymmetric fold above the fault, which steeper slope is formed just above the upper end of the fault. As the sedimentary layer became thicker, anticline axis moved to hanging wall side in the fold structure. As the dip angle became smaller, the wavelength of the fold became longer and the fold structure grew highly asymmetric. Thus the shape of the fold structure is useful as an index to estimate the blind thrust below it. (author)

  16. Toward a physics-based rate and state friction law for earthquake nucleation processes in fault zones with granular gouge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferdowsi, B.; Rubin, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical simulations of earthquake nucleation rely on constitutive rate and state evolution laws to model earthquake initiation and propagation processes. The response of different state evolution laws to large velocity increases is an important feature of these constitutive relations that can significantly change the style of earthquake nucleation in numerical models. However, currently there is not a rigorous understanding of the physical origins of the response of bare rock or gouge-filled fault zones to large velocity increases. This in turn hinders our ability to design physics-based friction laws that can appropriately describe those responses. We here argue that most fault zones form a granular gouge after an initial shearing phase and that it is the behavior of the gouge layer that controls the fault friction. We perform numerical experiments of a confined sheared granular gouge under a range of confining stresses and driving velocities relevant to fault zones and apply 1-3 order of magnitude velocity steps to explore dynamical behavior of the system from grain- to macro-scales. We compare our numerical observations with experimental data from biaxial double-direct-shear fault gouge experiments under equivalent loading and driving conditions. Our intention is to first investigate the degree to which these numerical experiments, with Hertzian normal and Coulomb friction laws at the grain-grain contact scale and without any time-dependent plasticity, can reproduce experimental fault gouge behavior. We next compare the behavior observed in numerical experiments with predictions of the Dieterich (Aging) and Ruina (Slip) friction laws. Finally, the numerical observations at the grain and meso-scales will be used for designing a rate and state evolution law that takes into account recent advances in rheology of granular systems, including local and non-local effects, for a wide range of shear rates and slow and fast deformation regimes of the fault gouge.

  17. Episodic slow slip events in the Japan subduction zone before the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, Yoshihiro; Hino, Ryota; Kido, Motoyuki; Fujimoto, Hiromi; Osada, Yukihito; Inazu, Daisuke; Ohta, Yusaku; Iinuma, Takeshi; Ohzono, Mako; Miura, Satoshi; Mishina, Masaaki; Suzuki, Kensuke; Tsuji, Takeshi; Ashi, Juichiro

    2013-07-01

    We describe two transient slow slip events that occurred before the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The first transient crustal deformation, which occurred over a period of a week in November 2008, was recorded simultaneously using ocean-bottom pressure gauges and an on-shore volumetric strainmeter; this deformation has been interpreted as being an M6.8 episodic slow slip event. The second had a duration exceeding 1 month and was observed in February 2011, just before the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake; the moment magnitude of this event reached 7.0. The two events preceded interplate earthquakes of magnitudes M6.1 (December 2008) and M7.3 (March 9, 2011), respectively; the latter is the largest foreshock of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Our findings indicate that these slow slip events induced increases in shear stress, which in turn triggered the interplate earthquakes. The slow slip event source area on the fault is also located within the downdip portion of the huge-coseismic-slip area of the 2011 earthquake. This demonstrates episodic slow slip and seismic behavior occurring on the same portions of the megathrust fault, suggesting that the faults undergo slip in slow slip events can also rupture seismically.

  18. Prediction of Global Damage and Reliability Based Upon Sequential Identification and Updating of RC Structures Subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Skjærbæk, P. S.; Köylüoglu, H. U.

    The paper deals with the prediction of global damage and future structural reliability with special emphasis on sensitivity, bias and uncertainty of these predictions dependent on the statistically equivalent realizations of the future earthquake. The predictions are based on a modified Clough......-Johnston single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator with three parameters which are calibrated to fit the displacement response and the damage development in the past earthquake....

  19. The Benefits and Limitations of Crowdsourced Information for Rapid Damage Assessment of Global Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Landès, M.; Roussel, F.

    2017-12-01

    The Internet has fastened the collection of felt reports and macroseismic data after global earthquakes. At the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC), where the traditional online questionnaires have been replace by thumbnail-based questionnaires, an average of half of the reports are collected within 10 minutes of an earthquake's occurrence. In regions where EMSC is well identified this goes down to 5 min. The user simply specifies the thumbnail corresponding to observed effects erasing languages barriers and improving collection via small smartphone screens. A previous study has shown that EMSC data is well correlated with "Did You Feel It" (DYFI) data and 3 independent, manually collected datasets. The efficiency and rapidity of felt report collection through thumbnail-based questionnaires does not necessarily mean that they offer a complete picture of the situation for all intensities values, especially the higher ones. There are several potential limitations. Demographics probably play a role but so might eyewitnesses' behaviors: it is probably not their priority to report when their own safety and that of their loved ones is at stake. We propose to test this hypothesis on EMSC felt reports and to extend the study to LastQuake smartphone application uses. LastQuake is a free smartphone app providing very rapid information on felt earthquakes. There are currently 210 000 active users around the world covering almost every country except for a few ones in Sub-Saharan Africa. Along with felt reports we also analyze the characteristics of LastQuake app launches. For both composite datasets created from 108 earthquakes, we analyze the rapidity of eyewitnesses' reaction and how it changes with intensity values and surmise how they reflect different types of behaviors. We will show the intrinsic limitations of crowdsourced information for rapid situation awareness. More importantly, we will show in which cases the lack of crowdsourced information could

  20. Slab Geometry and Deformation in the Northern Nazca Subduction Zone Inferred From The Relocation and Focal mechanisms of Intermediate-Depth Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Y.; Warren, L. M.; Prieto, G. A.

    2015-12-01

    In the northern Nazca subduction zone, the Nazca plate is subducting to the east beneath the South American Plate. At ~5.6ºN, the subducting plate has a 240-km east-west offset associated with a slab tear, called the Caldas tear, that separates the northern and southern segments. Our study seeks to better define the slab geometry and deformation in the southern segment, which has a high rate of intermediate-depth earthquakes (50-300 km) between 3.6ºN and 5.2ºN in the Cauca cluster. From Jan 2010 to Mar 2014, 228 intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Cauca cluster with local magnitude Ml 2.5-4.7 were recorded by 65 seismic stations of the Colombian National Seismic Network. We review and, if necessary, adjust the catalog P and S wave arrival picks. We use the travel times to relocate the earthquakes using a double difference relocation method. For earthquakes with Ml ≥3.8, we also use waveform modeling to compute moment tensors . The distribution of earthquake relocations shows an ~15-km-thick slab dipping to the SE. The dip angle increases from 20º at the northern edge of the cluster to 38º at the southern edge. Two concentrated groups of earthquakes extend ~40 km vertically above the general downdip trend, with a 20 km quiet gap between them at ~100 km depth. The earthquakes in the general downdip seismic zone have downdip compressional axes, while earthquakes close to the quiet gap and in the concentrated groups have an oblique component. The general decrease in slab dip angle to the north may be caused by mantle flow through the Caldas tear. The seismicity gap in the slab may be associated with an active deformation zone and the concentrated groups of earthquakes with oblique focal mechanisms could be due to a slab fold.

  1. Stochastic strong ground motion simulations for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the south Aegean subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kkallas, Harris; Papazachos, Konstantinos; Boore, David; Margaris, Vasilis

    2015-04-01

    We have employed the stochastic finite-fault modelling approach of Motazedian and Atkinson (2005), as described by Boore (2009), for the simulation of Fourier spectra of the Intermediate-depth earthquakes of the south Aegean subduction zone. The stochastic finite-fault method is a practical tool for simulating ground motions of future earthquakes which requires region-specific source, path and site characterizations as input model parameters. For this reason we have used data from both acceleration-sensor and broadband velocity-sensor instruments from intermediate-depth earthquakes with magnitude of M 4.5-6.7 that occurred in the south Aegean subduction zone. Source mechanisms for intermediate-depth events of north Aegean subduction zone are either collected from published information or are constrained using the main faulting types from Kkallas et al. (2013). The attenuation parameters for simulations were adopted from Skarladoudis et al. (2013) and are based on regression analysis of a response spectra database. The site amplification functions for each soil class were adopted from Klimis et al., (1999), while the kappa values were constrained from the analysis of the EGELADOS network data from Ventouzi et al., (2013). The investigation of stress-drop values was based on simulations performed with the EXSIM code for several ranges of stress drop values and by comparing the results with the available Fourier spectra of intermediate-depth earthquakes. Significant differences regarding the strong-motion duration, which is determined from Husid plots (Husid, 1969), have been identified between the for-arc and along-arc stations due to the effect of the low-velocity/low-Q mantle wedge on the seismic wave propagation. In order to estimate appropriate values for the duration of P-waves, we have automatically picked P-S durations on the available seismograms. For the S-wave durations we have used the part of the seismograms starting from the S-arrivals and ending at the

  2. The 2012 Strike-slip Earthquake Sequence in Black Sea and its Link to the Caucasus Collision Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, T. L.; Hsu, C. H.; Legendre, C. P.; Jian, P. R.; Huang, B. S.; Karakhanian, A.; Chen, C. W.

    2016-12-01

    The Black Sea formed as a back-arc basin in Late Cretaceous to Paleogene with lots of extensional features. However, the Black Sea is now tectonically stable and absent of notable earthquakes except for the coastal region. In this study we invert regional waveforms of a new seismic array to constrain the focal mechanisms and depths of the 2012/12/23 earthquake sequence occurred in northeastern Black Sea basin that can provide unique estimates on the stress field in the region. The results show that the focal mechanisms for the main shock and 5 larger aftershocks are all strike-slip faulting and resembling with each other. The main rupture fall along the vertical dipping, NW-SE trending sinistral fault indicated by the lineation of most aftershocks. The fault strike and aftershock distribution are both consistent with the Shatsky Ridge, which is continental in nature but large normal faults was created by previous subsidence. The occurrence of 2012 earthquakes can be re-activated, as strike-slip, on one of the pre-existing normal fault cutting at depth nearly 20-30 km in the extended crust. Some of the aftershocks, including a larger one occurred 5 days later, are distributed toward NE direction 20 km away from main fault zone. Those events might be triggered by the main shock along a conjugate fault, which is surprisingly at the extension of proposed transform fault perpendicular to the rift axis of eastern Black Sea Basin. The focal mechanisms also indicate that the maximum compression in northeast Black Sea is at E-W direction, completely different from the N-S compression in the Caucasus and East Turkey controlled by Arabia-Eurasia collision. The origin of E-W maximum compression is probably the same as the secondary stress inferred from earthquakes in Racha region of the Greater Caucasus.

  3. Earthquakes and forecast reliability: thermoactivation and mesomechanics of the focal zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinnikov, I. I.; Manukin, A. B.; Matyunin, V. P.

    2017-06-01

    According to our data, the involvement of the fundamental laws of physics, in particular, consideration of an earthquake as a particular macroprocess with a peak together with the thermofluctuational activation of mechanical stresses in some environments, makes it possible to move beyond the traditional idea of the issue of earthquake prediction. Many formal parameters of statistical processing of the geophysical data can be provided with a physical sense related to the mesomechanics of structural changes in a stressed solid body. Measures for improving the efficiency of observations and their mathematical processing to solve the forecasting issues have been specified.

  4. Margin-Wide Earthquake Subspace Scanning Along the Cascadia Subduction Zone Using the Cascadia Initiative Amphibious Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, E.; Bilek, S. L.; Rowe, C. A.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the spatial extent and behavior of the interplate contact in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) may prove pivotal to preparation for future great earthquakes, such as the M9 event of 1700. Current and historic seismic catalogs are limited in their integrity by their short duration, given the recurrence rate of great earthquakes, and by their rather high magnitude of completeness for the interplate seismic zone, due to its offshore distance from these land-based networks. This issue is addressed via the 2011-2015 Cascadia Initiative (CI) amphibious seismic array deployment, which combined coastal land seismometers with more than 60 ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS) situated directly above the presumed plate interface. We search the CI dataset for small, previously undetected interplate earthquakes to identify seismic patches on the megathrust. Using the automated subspace detection method, we search for previously undetected events. Our subspace comprises eigenvectors derived from CI OBS and on-land waveforms extracted for existing catalog events that appear to have occurred on the plate interface. Previous work focused on analysis of two repeating event clusters off the coast of Oregon spanning all 4 years of deployment. Here we expand earlier results to include detection and location analysis to the entire CSZ margin during the first year of CI deployment, with more than 200 new events detected for the central portion of the margin. Template events used for subspace scanning primarily occurred beneath the land surface along the coast, at the downdip edge of modeled high slip patches for the 1700 event, with most concentrated at the northwestern edge of the Olympic Peninsula.

  5. Structure of the Koyna-Warna Seismic Zone, Maharashtra, India: A possible model for large induced earthquakes elsewhere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catchings, Rufus D.; Dixit, M.M.; Goldman, Mark R.; Kumar, S.

    2015-01-01

    The Koyna-Warna area of India is one of the best worldwide examples of reservoir-induced seismicity, with the distinction of having generated the largest known induced earthquake (M6.3 on 10 December 1967) and persistent moderate-magnitude (>M5) events for nearly 50 years. Yet, the fault structure and tectonic setting that has accommodated the induced seismicity is poorly known, in part because the seismic events occur beneath a thick sequence of basalt layers. On the basis of the alignment of earthquake epicenters over an ~50 year period, lateral variations in focal mechanisms, upper-crustal tomographic velocity images, geophysical data (aeromagnetic, gravity, and magnetotelluric), geomorphic data, and correlation with similar structures elsewhere, we suggest that the Koyna-Warna area lies within a right step between northwest trending, right-lateral faults. The sub-basalt basement may form a local structural depression (pull-apart basin) caused by extension within the step-over zone between the right-lateral faults. Our postulated model accounts for the observed pattern of normal faulting in a region that is dominated by north-south directed compression. The right-lateral faults extend well beyond the immediate Koyna-Warna area, possibly suggesting a more extensive zone of seismic hazards for the central India area. Induced seismic events have been observed many places worldwide, but relatively large-magnitude induced events are less common because critically stressed, preexisting structures are a necessary component. We suggest that releasing bends and fault step-overs like those we postulate for the Koyna-Warna area may serve as an ideal tectonic environment for generating moderate- to large- magnitude induced (reservoir, injection, etc.) earthquakes.

  6. Diagnosis of time of increased probability of volcanic earthquakes at Mt. Vesuvius zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rotwain, I.; Kuznetsov, I.; De Natale, G.; Peresan, A.; Panza, G.F.

    2003-06-01

    The possibility of intermediate-term earthquake prediction at Mt. Vesuvius by means of the algorithm CN is explored. CN was originally designed to identify the Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) for the occurrence of strong tectonic earthquakes, with magnitude M ≥ M 0 , within a region a priori delimited. Here the algorithm CN is applied, for the first time, to the analysis of volcanic seismicity. The earthquakes recorded at Mt. Vesuvius, during the period from February 1972 to October 2002, are considered and the magnitude threshold M 0 , selecting the events to be predicted, is varied within the range: 3.0 - 3.3. Satisfactory prediction results are obtained, by retrospective analysis, when a time scaling is introduced. In particular, when the length of the time windows is reduced by a factor 2.5 - 3, with respect to the standard version of CN algorithm, more than 90% of the events with M ≥ M 0 occur within the TIP intervals, with TIPs occupying about 30% of the total time considered. The control experiment 'Seismic History' demonstrates the stability of the obtained results and indicates that the algorithm CN can be applied to monitor the preparation of impending earthquakes with M ≥ 3.0 at Mt. Vesuvius. (author)

  7. Comprehensive understanding of a deep transition zone from an unstable- to stable-slip regime of the megathrust interplate earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, A.; Iidaka, T.; Ikuta, R.; Yoshida, Y.; Katsumata, K.; Iwasaki, T.; Sakai, S.; Yamaoka, K.; Watanabe, T.; Kunitomo, T.; Yamazaki, F.; Tsumura, N.; Nozaki, K.; Okubo, M.; Suzuki, S.; Hirata, N.; Zhang, H.; Thurber, C. H.

    2009-12-01

    Most slow slips have occurred in the deep transition zone from an unstable- to stable-slip regime. Detailed knowledge about a deep transition zone is essentially important to understand the mechanism of the slow slips, and the stress concentration process to the source region of the megathrust interplate earthquake. We have conducted a very dense seismic observation in the Tokai-region from the April to the August in 2008 through a linear deployment of 75 portable stations, in Japan. The array extended from the bottom part of the source region of the Tokai earthquake to deep low-frequency earthquakes (LFE, ~ 35 km depth) including the long-term slow-slip region (~ 25 km depth). Here we present a high-resolution tomographic imaging of seismic velocities and highly-accurate hypocenters including LFEs, using first arrival data from the dense seismograph deployment. We manually picked the first arrivals of P- and S- waves from each waveform for about 700 earthquakes including about 20 LFEs observed by the dense array. Then, we applied the TomoDD-code [Zhang and Thurber, 2003] to the arrival data set, adding an accurate double-difference data estimated by a waveform cross-correlation technique. A low velocity (Vp, Vs) layer with high Poisson’s ratio is clearly imaged, and tilts to the northwestward with a low dip angle, which corresponds to the subducting oceanic crust of the Philippine Sea Slab. Although seismicity within the oceanic crust is significantly low, few earthquakes occur within the oceanic crust. The LFEs are linearly aligned along the top surface of the subducting oceanic crust at depths from 30 to 40 km. The Poisson’s ratio within the oceanic crust does not show significant depth-dependent increase beneath the linear alignment of LFEs. This result argues against a depth section of Poisson’s ratio obtained in the SW Japan [Shelly et al., 2006]. Beneath the LFEs, active cluster of slab earthquakes are horizontally distributed. At the depths greater

  8. Upper-Mantel Earthquakes in the Australia-Pacific Plate Boundary Zone and the Roots of the Alpine Fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boese, C. M.; Warren-Smith, E.; Townend, J.; Stern, T. A.; Lamb, S. H.

    2016-12-01

    Seismicity in the upper mantle in continental collision zones is relatively rare, but observed around the world. Temporary seismometer deployments have repeatedly detected mantle earthquakes at depths of 40-100 km within the Australia-Pacific plate boundary zone beneath the South Island of New Zealand. Here, the transpressive Alpine Fault constitutes the primary plate boundary structure linking subduction zones of opposite polarity farther north and south. The Southern Alps Microearthquake Borehole Array (SAMBA) has been operating continuously since November 2008 along a 50 km-long section of the central Alpine Fault, where the rate of uplift of the Southern Alps is highest. To date it has detected more than 40 small to moderate-sized mantle events (1≤ML≤3.9). The Central Otago Seismic Array (COSA) has been in operation since late 2012 and detected 15 upper mantle events along the sub-vertical southern Alpine Fault. Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain the occurrence of upper mantle seismicity in the South Island, including intra-continental subduction (Reyners 1987, Geology); high shear-strain gradients due to depressed geotherms and viscous deformation of mantle lithosphere (Kohler and Eberhart-Phillips 2003, BSSA); high strain rates resulting from plate bending (Boese et al. 2013, EPSL), and underthrusting of the Australian plate (Lamb et al. 2015, G3). Focal mechanism analysis reveals a variety of mechanisms for the upper mantle events but predominantly strike-slip and reverse faulting. In this study, we apply spectral analysis to better constrain source parameters for these mantle events. These results are interpreted in conjunction with new information about crustal structure and low-frequency earthquakes near the Moho and in light of existing velocity, attenuation and resistivity models.

  9. Global earthquake catalogs and long-range correlation of seismic activity (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogata, Y.

    2009-12-01

    In view of the long-term seismic activity in the world, homogeneity of a global catalog is indispensable. Lately, Engdahl and Villaseñor (2002) compiled a global earthquake catalog of magnitude (M)7.0 or larger during the last century (1900-1999). This catalog is based on the various existing catalogs such as Abe catalog (Abe, 1981, 1984; Abe and Noguchi, 1983a, b) for the world seismicity (1894-1980), its modified catalogs by Perez and Scholz (1984) and by Pacheco and Sykes (1992), and also the Harvard University catalog since 1975. However, the original surface wave magnitudes of Abe catalog were systematically changed by Perez and Scholz (1984) and Pacheco and Sykes (1992). They suspected inhomogeneity of the Abe catalog and claimed that the two seeming changes in the occurrence rate around 1922 and 1948 resulted from magnitude shifts for some instrumental-related reasons. They used a statistical test assuming that such a series of large earthquakes in the world should behave as the stationary Poisson process (uniform occurrences). It is obvious that their claim strongly depends on their a priori assumption of an independent or short-range dependence of earthquake occurrence. We question this assumption from the viewpoint of long-range dependence of seismicity. We make some statistical analyses of the spectrum, dispersion-time diagrams and R/S for estimating and testing of the long-range correlations. We also attempt to show the possibility that the apparent rate change in the global seismicity can be simulated by a certain long-range correlated process. Further, if we divide the globe into the two regions of high and low latitudes, for example, we have different shapes of the cumulative curves to each other, and the above mentioned apparent change-points disappear from the both regions. This suggests that the Abe catalog shows the genuine seismic activity rather than the artifact of the suspected magnitude shifts that should appear in any wide enough regions

  10. The orientation of disaster donations: differences in the global response to five major earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jiuchang; Marinova, Dora

    2016-07-01

    This study analyses the influence of gift giving, geographical location, political regime, and trade openness on disaster donation decisions, using five severe earthquakes that occurred between 2008 and 2012 as case studies. The results show that global disaster donation is not dominated by only philanthropy or trade interests, and that the determinants of donation decisions vary with the scale of the natural disaster and the characteristics of the disaster-affected countries. While gift giving exists in the case of middle-size earthquakes, political regimes play a very important part in the overall donation process. Countries with higher perceived corruption may donate more frequently, but those that are more democratic may be more generous in their donations. Generosity based on geographical proximity to the calamity is significant in the decision-making process for most natural disasters, yet it may have a negative effect on donations in Latin America and the Caribbean. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

  11. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction and seismic zoning in Northern Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Orozova Stanishkova, I.; Costa, G.; Vaccari, F.

    1993-12-01

    The algorithm CN for intermediate earthquake prediction has been applied to an area in Northern Italy, which has been chosen according to a recently proposed seismotectonic model. Earthquakes with magnitude ≥ 5.4 occur in the area with a relevant frequency and their occurrence is predicted by algorithm CN. Therefore a seismic hazard analysis has been performed using a deterministic procedure, based on the computation of complete synthetic seismograms. The results are summarized in a map giving the distribution of peak ground acceleration, but the complete time series are available, which can be used by civil engineers in the design of new seismo-resistant constructions and in the retrofitting of the existing ones. This risk reduction action should be intensified in connection with warnings issued on the basis of the forward predictions made by CN. (author). Refs, 7 figs, 1 tab

  12. Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Allen, T.I.; Jaiswal, K.; Porter, K.; Hearne, M.

    2008-01-01

    The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake origins and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts. Current PAGER notifications and Web pages estimate the population exposed to each seismic intensity level. In addition to being a useful indicator of potential impact, PAGER’s intensity/exposure display provides a new standard in the dissemination of rapid earthquake information. We are currently developing and testing a more comprehensive alert system that will include casualty estimates. This is motivated by the idea that an estimated range of possible number of deaths will aid in decisions regarding humanitarian response. Underlying the PAGER exposure and loss models are global earthquake ShakeMap shaking estimates, constrained as quickly as possible by finite-fault modeling and observed ground motions and intensities, when available. Loss modeling is being developed comprehensively with a suite of candidate models that range from fully empirical to largely analytical approaches. Which of these models is most appropriate for use in a particular earthquake depends on how much is known about local building stocks and their vulnerabilities. A first-order country-specific global building inventory has been developed, as have corresponding vulnerability functions. For calibrating PAGER loss models, we have systematically generated an Atlas of 5,000 ShakeMaps for significant global earthquakes during the last 36 years. For many of these, auxiliary earthquake source and shaking intensity data are also available. Refinements to the loss models are ongoing

  13. Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size-frequency statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ide, Satoshi; Yabe, Suguru; Tanaka, Yoshiyuki

    2016-11-01

    The possibility that tidal stress can trigger earthquakes is long debated. In particular, a clear causal relationship between small earthquakes and the phase of tidal stress is elusive. However, tectonic tremors deep within subduction zones are highly sensitive to tidal stress levels, with tremor rate increasing at an exponential rate with rising tidal stress. Thus, slow deformation and the possibility of earthquakes at subduction plate boundaries may be enhanced during periods of large tidal stress. Here we calculate the tidal stress history, and specifically the amplitude of tidal stress, on a fault plane in the two weeks before large earthquakes globally, based on data from the global, Japanese, and Californian earthquake catalogues. We find that very large earthquakes, including the 2004 Sumatran, 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile and the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, tend to occur near the time of maximum tidal stress amplitude. This tendency is not obvious for small earthquakes. However, we also find that the fraction of large earthquakes increases (the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation decreases) as the amplitude of tidal shear stress increases. The relationship is also reasonable, considering the well-known relationship between stress and the b-value. This suggests that the probability of a tiny rock failure expanding to a gigantic rupture increases with increasing tidal stress levels. We conclude that large earthquakes are more probable during periods of high tidal stress.

  14. Diagnosis of time of increased probability of volcanic earthquakes at Mt. Vesuvius zone

    CERN Document Server

    Rotwain, I; Kuznetsov, I V; Panza, G F; Peresan, A

    2003-01-01

    The possibility of intermediate-term earthquake prediction at Mt. Vesuvius by means of the algorithm CN is explored. CN was originally designed to identify the Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) for the occurrence of strong tectonic earthquakes, with magnitude M >= M sub 0 , within a region a priori delimited. Here the algorithm CN is applied, for the first time, to the analysis of volcanic seismicity. The earthquakes recorded at Mt. Vesuvius, during the period from February 1972 to October 2002, are considered and the magnitude threshold M sub 0 , selecting the events to be predicted, is varied within the range: 3.0 - 3.3. Satisfactory prediction results are obtained, by retrospective analysis, when a time scaling is introduced. In particular, when the length of the time windows is reduced by a factor 2.5 - 3, with respect to the standard version of CN algorithm, more than 90% of the events with M >= M sub 0 occur within the TIP intervals, with TIPs occupying about 30% of the total time considered. The co...

  15. Simulating subduction zone earthquakes using discrete element method: a window into elusive source processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blank, D. G.; Morgan, J.

    2017-12-01

    Large earthquakes that occur on convergent plate margin interfaces have the potential to cause widespread damage and loss of life. Recent observations reveal that a wide range of different slip behaviors take place along these megathrust faults, which demonstrate both their complexity, and our limited understanding of fault processes and their controls. Numerical modeling provides us with a useful tool that we can use to simulate earthquakes and related slip events, and to make direct observations and correlations among properties and parameters that might control them. Further analysis of these phenomena can lead to a more complete understanding of the underlying mechanisms that accompany the nucleation of large earthquakes, and what might trigger them. In this study, we use the discrete element method (DEM) to create numerical analogs to subduction megathrusts with heterogeneous fault friction. Displacement boundary conditions are applied in order to simulate tectonic loading, which in turn, induces slip along the fault. A wide range of slip behaviors are observed, ranging from creep to stick slip. We are able to characterize slip events by duration, stress drop, rupture area, and slip magnitude, and to correlate the relationships among these quantities. These characterizations allow us to develop a catalog of rupture events both spatially and temporally, for comparison with slip processes on natural faults.

  16. Estimating Fallout Building Attributes from Architectural Features and Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Building Descriptions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dillon, Michael B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Kane, Staci R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-03-01

    A nuclear explosion has the potential to injure or kill tens to hundreds of thousands (or more) of people through exposure to fallout (external gamma) radiation. Existing buildings can protect their occupants (reducing fallout radiation exposures) by placing material and distance between fallout particles and individuals indoors. Prior efforts have determined an initial set of building attributes suitable to reasonably assess a given building’s protection against fallout radiation. The current work provides methods to determine the quantitative values for these attributes from (a) common architectural features and data and (b) buildings described using the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) taxonomy. These methods will be used to improve estimates of fallout protection for operational US Department of Defense (DoD) and US Department of Energy (DOE) consequence assessment models.

  17. Unexpected earthquake hazard revealed by Holocene rupture on the Kenchreai Fault (central Greece): Implications for weak sub-fault shear zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copley, Alex; Grützner, Christoph; Howell, Andy; Jackson, James; Penney, Camilla; Wimpenny, Sam

    2018-03-01

    High-resolution elevation models, palaeoseismic trenching, and Quaternary dating demonstrate that the Kenchreai Fault in the eastern Gulf of Corinth (Greece) has ruptured in the Holocene. Along with the adjacent Pisia and Heraion Faults (which ruptured in 1981), our results indicate the presence of closely-spaced and parallel normal faults that are simultaneously active, but at different rates. Such a configuration allows us to address one of the major questions in understanding the earthquake cycle, specifically what controls the distribution of interseismic strain accumulation? Our results imply that the interseismic loading and subsequent earthquakes on these faults are governed by weak shear zones in the underlying ductile crust. In addition, the identification of significant earthquake slip on a fault that does not dominate the late Quaternary geomorphology or vertical coastal motions in the region provides an important lesson in earthquake hazard assessment.

  18. Stratigraphic and microfossil evidence for a 4500-year history of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis at Yaquina River estuary, Oregon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graehl, Nicholas A; Kelsey, Harvey M.; Witter, Robert C.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Engelhart, Simon E.

    2015-01-01

    The Sallys Bend swamp and marsh area on the central Oregon coast onshore of the Cascadia subduction zone contains a sequence of buried coastal wetland soils that extends back ∼4500 yr B.P. The upper 10 of the 12 soils are represented in multiple cores. Each soil is abruptly overlain by a sandy deposit and then, in most cases, by greater than 10 cm of mud. For eight of the 10 buried soils, times of soil burial are constrained through radiocarbon ages on fine, delicate detritus from the top of the buried soil; for two of the buried soils, diatom and foraminifera data constrain paleoenvironment at the time of soil burial.We infer that each buried soil represents a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake because the soils are laterally extensive and abruptly overlain by sandy deposits and mud. Preservation of coseismically buried soils occurred from 4500 yr ago until ∼500–600 yr ago, after which preservation was compromised by cessation of gradual relative sea-level rise, which in turn precluded drowning of marsh soils during instances of coseismic subsidence. Based on grain-size and microfossil data, sandy deposits overlying buried soils accumulated immediately after a subduction zone earthquake, during tsunami incursion into Sallys Bend. The possibility that the sandy deposits were sourced directly from landslides triggered upstream in the Yaquina River basin by seismic shaking was discounted based on sedimentologic, microfossil, and depositional site characteristics of the sandy deposits, which were inconsistent with a fluvial origin. Biostratigraphic analyses of sediment above two buried soils—in the case of two earthquakes, one occurring shortly after 1541–1708 cal. yr B.P. and the other occurring shortly after 3227–3444 cal. yr B.P.—provide estimates that coseismic subsidence was a minimum of 0.4 m. The average recurrence interval of subduction zone earthquakes is 420–580 yr, based on an ∼3750–4050-yr-long record and seven to nine interearthquake

  19. Teamwork tools and activities within the hazard component of the Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagani, M.; Weatherill, G.; Monelli, D.; Danciu, L.

    2013-05-01

    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a public-private partnership aimed at supporting and fostering a global community of scientists and engineers working in the fields of seismic hazard and risk assessment. In the hazard sector, in particular, GEM recognizes the importance of local ownership and leadership in the creation of seismic hazard models. For this reason, over the last few years, GEM has been promoting different activities in the context of seismic hazard analysis ranging, for example, from regional projects targeted at the creation of updated seismic hazard studies to the development of a new open-source seismic hazard and risk calculation software called OpenQuake-engine (http://globalquakemodel.org). In this communication we'll provide a tour of the various activities completed, such as the new ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Catalogue, and of currently on-going initiatives like the creation of a suite of tools for the creation of PSHA input models. Discussion, comments and criticism by the colleagues in the audience will be highly appreciated.

  20. Earthquake occurrence along the Java trench in front of the onset of the Wadati-Benioff zone: Beginning of a new subduction cycle?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Špičák, Aleš; Hanuš, Václav; Vaněk, Jiří

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 26, č. 1 (2007), TC1005/1-TC1005/16 ISSN 0278-7407 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA3012303 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30120515 Keywords : Wadati-Benioff zone * earthquake occurrence * Java trench Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 2.398, year: 2007

  1. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-15

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  2. Auroral Electrojet Index Designed to Provide a Global Measure, Hourly Intervals, of Auroral Zone Magnetic Activity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Auroral Electrojet (AE) index is designed to provide a global quantitative measure of auroral zone magnetic activity produced by enhanced ionospheric currents...

  3. 20 cool facts about the New Madrid Seismic Zone-Commemorating the bicentennial of the New Madrid earthquake sequence, December 1811-February 1812 [poster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, R.A.; McCallister, N.S.; Dart, R.L.

    2011-01-01

    This poster summarizes a few of the more significant facts about the series of large earthquakes that struck the New Madrid seismic zone of southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent parts of Tennessee and Kentucky from December 1811 to February 1812. Three earthquakes in this sequence had a magnitude (M) of 7.0 or greater. The first earthquake occurred on December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m.; the second on January 23, 1812, at 9 a.m.; and the third on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These three earthquakes were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. The mainshocks were followed by many hundreds of aftershocks that occurred over the next decade. Many of the aftershocks were major earthquakes themselves. The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2-3 times as large as the strongly shaken area of the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake. Geologic studies show that the 1811-1812 sequence was not an isolated event in the New Madrid region. The 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence was preceded by at least two other similar sequences in about A.D. 1450 and A.D. 900. Research also indicates that other large earthquakes have occurred in the region surrounding the main New Madrid seismicity trends in the past 5,000 years or so.

  4. Coulomb Stress Change and Seismic Hazard of Rift Zones in Southern Tibet after the 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal Earthquake and Its Mw7.3 Aftershock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Z.; Zha, X.; Lu, Z.

    2015-12-01

    In southern Tibet (30~34N, 80~95E), many north-trending rifts, such as Yadong-Gulu and Lunggar rifts, are characterized by internally drained graben or half-graben basins bounded by active normal faults. Some developed rifts have become a portion of important transportation lines in Tibet, China. Since 1976, eighty-seven >Mw5.0 earthquakes have happened in the rift regions, and fifty-five events have normal faulting focal mechanisms according to the GCMT catalog. These rifts and normal faults are associated with both the EW-trending extension of the southern Tibet and the convergence between Indian and Tibet. The 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal great earthquake and its Mw7.3 aftershock occurred at the main Himalayan Thrust zone and caused tremendous damages in Kathmandu region. Those earthquakes will lead to significant viscoelastic deformation and stress changes in the southern Tibet in the future. To evaluate the seismic hazard in the active rift regions in southern Tibet, we modeled the slip distribution of the 2015 Nepal great earthquakes using the InSAR displacement field from the ALOS-2 satellite SAR data, and calculated the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) on these active normal faults in the rift zones. Because the estimated CFS depends on the geometrical parameters of receiver faults, it is necessary to get the accurate fault parameters in the rift zones. Some historical earthquakes have been studied using the field data, teleseismic data and InSAR observations, but results are in not agreement with each other. In this study, we revaluated the geometrical parameters of seismogenic faults occurred in the rift zones using some high-quality coseismic InSAR observations and teleseismic body-wave data. Finally, we will evaluate the seismic hazard in the rift zones according to the value of the estimated CFS and aftershock distribution.

  5. Shallow very-low-frequency earthquakes accompany slow slip events in the Nankai subduction zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakano, Masaru; Hori, Takane; Araki, Eiichiro; Kodaira, Shuichi; Ide, Satoshi

    2018-03-14

    Recent studies of slow earthquakes along plate boundaries have shown that tectonic tremor, low-frequency earthquakes, very-low-frequency events (VLFEs), and slow-slip events (SSEs) often accompany each other and appear to share common source faults. However, the source processes of slow events occurring in the shallow part of plate boundaries are not well known because seismic observations have been limited to land-based stations, which offer poor resolution beneath offshore plate boundaries. Here we use data obtained from seafloor observation networks in the Nankai trough, southwest of Japan, to investigate shallow VLFEs in detail. Coincident with the VLFE activity, signals indicative of shallow SSEs were detected by geodetic observations at seafloor borehole observatories in the same region. We find that the shallow VLFEs and SSEs share common source regions and almost identical time histories of moment release. We conclude that these slow events arise from the same fault slip and that VLFEs represent relatively high-frequency fluctuations of slip during SSEs.

  6. Activated Very Low Frequency Earthquakes By the Slow Slip Events in the Ryukyu Subduction Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, M.; Sunagawa, N.

    2014-12-01

    The Ryukyu Trench (RT), where the Philippine Sea plate is subducting, has had no known thrust earthquakes with a Mw>8.0 in the last 300 years. However, the rupture source of the 1771 tsunami has been proposed as an Mw > 8.0 earthquake in the south RT. Based on the dating of tsunami boulders, it has been estimated that large tsunamis occur at intervals of 150-400 years in the south Ryukyu arc (RA) (Araoka et al., 2013), although they have not occurred for several thousand years in the central and northern Ryukyu areas (Goto et al., 2014). To address the discrepancy between recent low moment releases by earthquakes and occurrence of paleo-tsunamis in the RT, we focus on the long-term activity of the very low frequency earthquakes (VLFEs), which are good indicators of the stress release in the shallow plate interface. VLFEs have been detected along the RT (Ando et al., 2012), which occur on the plate interface or at the accretionary prism. We used broadband data from the F-net of NIED along the RT and from the IRIS network. We applied two filters to all the raw broadband seismograms: a 0.02-0.05 Hz band-pass filter and a 1 Hz high-pass filter. After identification of the low-frequency events from the band-pass-filtered seismograms, the local and teleseismic events were removed. Then we picked the arrival time of the maximum amplitude of the surface wave of the VLFEs and determined the epicenters. VLFEs occurred on the RA side within 100 km from the trench axis along the RT. Distribution of the 6670 VLFEs from 2002 to 2013 could be divided to several clusters. Principal large clusters were located at 27.1°-29.0°N, 25.5°-26.6°N, and 122.1°-122.4°E (YA). We found that the VLFEs of the YA are modulated by repeating slow slip events (SSEs) which occur beneath south RA. The activity of the VLFEs increased to two times of its ordinary rate in 15 days after the onset of the SSEs. Activation of the VLFEs could be generated by low stress change of 0.02-20 kPa increase in

  7. THE POTENTIAL OF TSUNAMI GENERATION ALONG THE MAKRAN SUBDUCTION ZONE IN THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. CASE STUDY: THE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI OF NOVEMBER 28, 1945

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Pararas-Carayannis

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Although large earthquakes along the Makran Subduction Zone are infrequent, the potential for the generation of destructive tsunamis in the Northern Arabian Sea cannot be overlooked. It is quite possible that historical tsunamis in this region have not been properly reported or documented. Such past tsunamis must have affected Southern Pakistan, India, Iran, Oman, the Maldives and other countries bordering the Indian Ocean.The best known of the historical tsunamis in the region is the one generated by the great earthquake of November 28, 1945 off Pakistan's Makran Coast (Balochistan in the Northern Arabian Sea. The destructive tsunami killed more than 4,000 people in Southern Pakistan but also caused great loss of life and devastation along the coasts of Western India, Iran, Oman and possibly elsewhere.The seismotectonics of the Makran subduction zone, historical earthquakes in the region, the recent earthquake of October 8, 2005 in Northern Pakistan, and the great tsunamigenic earthquakes of December 26, 2004 and March 28, 2005, are indicative of the active tectonic collision process that is taking place along the entire southern and southeastern boundary of the Eurasian plate as it collides with the Indian plate and adjacent microplates. Tectonic stress transference to other, stress loaded tectonic regions could trigger tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Northern Arabian Sea in the future.The northward movement and subduction of the Oman oceanic lithosphere beneath the Iranian micro-plate at a very shallow angle and at the high rate is responsible for active orogenesis and uplift that has created a belt of highly folded and densely faulted coastal mountain ridges along the coastal region of Makran, in both the Balochistan and Sindh provinces. The same tectonic collision process has created offshore thrust faults. As in the past, large destructive tsunamigenic earthquakes can occur along major faults in the east Makran region, near Karachi, as

  8. A global search inversion for earthquake kinematic rupture history: Application to the 2000 western Tottori, Japan earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piatanesi, A.; Cirella, A.; Spudich, P.; Cocco, M.

    2007-01-01

    We present a two-stage nonlinear technique to invert strong motions records and geodetic data to retrieve the rupture history of an earthquake on a finite fault. To account for the actual rupture complexity, the fault parameters are spatially variable peak slip velocity, slip direction, rupture time and risetime. The unknown parameters are given at the nodes of the subfaults, whereas the parameters within a subfault are allowed to vary through a bilinear interpolation of the nodal values. The forward modeling is performed with a discrete wave number technique, whose Green's functions include the complete response of the vertically varying Earth structure. During the first stage, an algorithm based on the heat-bath simulated annealing generates an ensemble of models that efficiently sample the good data-fitting regions of parameter space. In the second stage (appraisal), the algorithm performs a statistical analysis of the model ensemble and computes a weighted mean model and its standard deviation. This technique, rather than simply looking at the best model, extracts the most stable features of the earthquake rupture that are consistent with the data and gives an estimate of the variability of each model parameter. We present some synthetic tests to show the effectiveness of the method and its robustness to uncertainty of the adopted crustal model. Finally, we apply this inverse technique to the well recorded 2000 western Tottori, Japan, earthquake (Mw 6.6); we confirm that the rupture process is characterized by large slip (3-4 m) at very shallow depths but, differently from previous studies, we imaged a new slip patch (2-2.5 m) located deeper, between 14 and 18 km depth. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

  9. Surface wave tomography across the Sorgenfrei-Tornquist Zone, SW Scandinavia, using ambient noise and earthquake data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köhler, Andreas; Maupin, Valérie; Balling, Niels

    2015-10-01

    We produce a S-wave velocity model of the crust and upper mantle around the Sorgenfrei-Tornquist Zone, southern Scandinavia, by analysing ambient seismic noise and earthquake recordings on temporary and permanent regional network stations. In a first step, we perform tomographical inversion of surface wave dispersion data from seismic noise to obtain Rayleigh and Love wave phase-velocity maps from 3 to about 30 s period. Local dispersion curves are then combined with regionally averaged surface wave velocities from earthquake data measured between 15 and about 100 s period. Dispersion curves are jointly inverted for a 3-D model of the S-wave velocity and radial velocity anisotropy by using a combined Monte Carlo and linearized inversion approach. Results reveal significant crustal as well as uppermost mantle velocity variations at all depth levels. Upper crustal structural variations are mainly controlled by the thick sedimentary Danish Basin with both low S-wave velocities and high anisotropy. Despite of the known limited capability of surface wave inversion to constrain interface depths and model parameter trade-offs, obtained Moho depths are in good agreement with previous studies in the region. Marked crustal thinning is clearly revealed beneath the Danish Basin with a narrow transition to the thicker crust in Swedish shield areas. Despite very different crustal and morphological structures, Denmark and southern Norway both have similar well-defined upper-mantle low-velocity zones, interpreted as asthenosphere, starting a depth of about 100 km. Compared with southern Sweden, showing high upper-mantle velocities, characteristic for shields, velocities are reduced by 0.30-0.40 km s-1 (6-8 per cent) at the depth levels of 140-200 km and radial anisotropy of 2-4 per cent is observed. Our study confirms the importance of the Sorgenfrei-Tornquist Zone, as a very deep structural boundary, separating old, thick, cratonic Baltica lithosphere in southern Sweden from

  10. SEISMIC PICTURE OF A FAULT ZONE. WHAT CAN BE GAINED FROM THE ANALYSIS OF FINE PATTERNS OF SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF WEAK EARTHQUAKE CENTERS?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gevorg G. Kocharyan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Association of earthquake hypocenters with fault zones appears more pronounced in cases with more accurately determined positions of the earthquakes. For complex, branched structures of major fault zones, it is assumed that some of the earthquakes occur at feathering fractures of smaller scale.It is thus possible to develop a «seismological» criterion for definition of a zone of dynamic influence of faults, i.e. the zone containing the majority of earthquakes associated with the fault zone under consideration.In this publication, seismogenic structures of several fault zones located in the San-Andreas fault system are reviewed. Based on the data from a very dense network of digital seismic stations installed in this region and with application of modern data processing methods, differential coordinates of microearthquakes can be determined with errors of about first dozens of meters.It is thus possible to precisely detect boundaries of the areas wherein active deformation processes occur and to reveal spatial patterns of seismic event localization.In our analyses, data from the most comprehensive seismic catalog were used. The catalogue includes information on events which occurred and were registered in North California in the period between January 1984 and May 2003. In this publication, the seismic data processing results and regularities revealed during the analyses are compared with the data obtained from studies of fault structures, modeling and numerical simulation results. Results of quantitative research of regularities of localization of seismic sources inside fault zones are presented.It is demonstrated by 3D models that seismic events are localized in the vicinity of an almost plain surface with a nearly constant angle of dip, the majority of events being concentrated at that conventional surface.Detection of typical scopes of seismicity localization may prove critical for solution of problems of technogenic impact on fault zones

  11. Fungal levels in houses in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant evacuation zone after the Great East Japan Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, Naohide; Tokumura, Masahiro; Hashimoto, Kazuhiro; Asano, Katsuyoshi; Kawakami, Yuji

    2017-10-01

    Residences located within 20 km of the damaged Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant were evacuated shortly after the Great East Japan Earthquake. The levels of airborne and surface fungi were measured in six houses in the evacuation zone in August 2012 and February 2013. Airborne fungal levels in all of the houses in the summer were higher than the environmental standard levels for residential houses published in Architectural Institute of Japan (>1000 colony-forming units [CFU]/m 3 ). In two houses whose residents rarely returned to visit, fungal levels were extremely high (>52,000 CFU/m 3 ). Although fungal levels in the winter were much lower than those in the summer, they were still higher than environmental standard levels in several houses. Indoor fungal levels were significantly inversely related to the frequency with which residents returned, but they were not correlated with the air exchange rates, temperature, humidity, or radiation levels. Cladosporium spp. and Penicillium spp. were detected in every house. Aspergillus section Circumdati (Aspergillus ochraceus group) was also detected in several houses. These fungi produced ochratoxin A and ochratoxin B, which have nephrotoxic and carcinogenic potential. The present study suggests that further monitoring of fungal levels is necessary in houses in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant evacuation zone, and that some houses may require fungal disinfection. The results suggest that residents' health could be at risk owing to the high levels of airborne fungi and toxic fungi Aspergillus section Circumdati. Therefore, monitoring and decontamination/disinfection of fungi are strongly recommended before residents are allowed to return permanently to their homes. In addition, returning to home with a certain frequency and adequate ventilation are necessary during similar situations, e.g., when residents cannot stay in their homes for a long period, because fungal levels in houses in the Fukushima Daiichi

  12. Shallow seismic structure of Kunlun fault zone in northern Tibetan Plateau, China: Implications for the 2001 M s8.1 Kunlun earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chun-Yong; Mooney, W.D.; Ding, Z.; Yang, J.; Yao, Z.; Lou, H.

    2009-01-01

    The shallow seismic velocity structure of the Kunlun fault zone (KLFZ) was jointly deduced from seismic refraction profiling and the records of trapped waves that were excited by five explosions. The data were collected after the 2001 Kunlun M s8.1 earthquake in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Seismic phases for the in-line record sections (26 records up to a distance of 15 km) along the fault zone were analysed, and 1-D P- and S-wave velocity models of shallow crust within the fault zone were determined by using the seismic refraction method. Sixteen seismic stations were deployed along the off-line profile perpendicular to the fault zone. Fault-zone trapped waves appear clearly on the record sections, which were simulated with a 3-D finite difference algorithm. Quantitative analysis of the correlation coefficients of the synthetic and observed trapped waveforms indicates that the Kunlun fault-zone width is 300 m, and S-wave quality factor Q within the fault zone is 15. Significantly, S-wave velocities within the fault zone are reduced by 30-45 per cent from surrounding rocks to a depth of at least 1-2 km, while P-wave velocities are reduced by 7-20 per cent. A fault-zone with such P- and S-low velocities is an indication of high fluid pressure because Vs is affected more than Vp. The low-velocity and low-Q zone in the KLFZ model is the effect of multiple ruptures along the fault trace of the 2001 M s8.1 Kunlun earthquake. ?? 2009 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2009 RAS.

  13. Pre-seismic geomagnetic and ionosphere signatures related to the Mw5.7 earthquake occurred in Vrancea zone on September 24, 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanica, Dragos Armand; Stanica, Dumitru; Błęcki, Jan; Ernst, Tomasz; Jóźwiak, Waldemar; Słomiński, Jan

    2018-02-01

    To emphasize the relationship between the pre-seismic geomagnetic signals and Vrancea seismicity, in this work it is hypothesized that before an earthquake initiation, the high stress reached into seismogenic volume generates dehydration of the rocks and fracturing processes followed by release of electric charges along the faulting systems, which lead to resistivity changes. These changes were explored on September 2016 by the normalized function Bzn obtained from the geomagnetic data recorded in ULF range (0.001-0.0083 Hz). A statistical analysis was also performed to discriminate on the new Bzn* time series a pre-seismic signature related to the Mw5.7 earthquake. Significant anomalous behavior of Bzn* was identified on September 21, with 3 days prior to the onset of the seismic event. Similar information is provided by registrations of the magnetic and electron concentration variations in the ionosphere over the Vrancea zone, by Swarm satellites, 4 days and 1 day before the earthquake.

  14. How fault geometry controls earthquake magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bletery, Q.; Thomas, A.; Karlstrom, L.; Rempel, A. W.; Sladen, A.; De Barros, L.

    2016-12-01

    Recent large megathrust earthquakes, such as the Mw9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in 2004 and the Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in 2011, astonished the scientific community. The first event occurred in a relatively low-convergence-rate subduction zone where events of its size were unexpected. The second event involved 60 m of shallow slip in a region thought to be aseismicaly creeping and hence incapable of hosting very large magnitude earthquakes. These earthquakes highlight gaps in our understanding of mega-earthquake rupture processes and the factors controlling their global distribution. Here we show that gradients in dip angle exert a primary control on mega-earthquake occurrence. We calculate the curvature along the major subduction zones of the world and show that past mega-earthquakes occurred on flat (low-curvature) interfaces. A simplified analytic model demonstrates that shear strength heterogeneity increases with curvature. Stress loading on flat megathrusts is more homogeneous and hence more likely to be released simultaneously over large areas than on highly-curved faults. Therefore, the absence of asperities on large faults might counter-intuitively be a source of higher hazard.

  15. Great earthquake potential in Oregon and Washington: An overview of recent coastal geologic studies and possible segmentation of the central Cascadia subduction zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, A.R.; Personius, S.F.

    1990-01-01

    Fundamental questions in earthquake hazards research in the Pacific Northwest concern the magnitude and recurrence of great earthquakes in the Cascadia subduction zone in Oregon and Washington. Geologic work of the last few years has produced convincing evidence for coseismic subsidence along the Washington and Oregon coasts. Regional subsidence recorded by estuarine deposits suggests that plate-interface earthquakes of at least M w 8 (>100-km-long ruptures) occurred during the late Holocene in northern Oregon and southern Washington. Differences in the types of coastal marsh sequences between northern and south-central Oregon, however, suggest that regional coastal subsidence does not extend south of about 45.5 degrees N along the Oregon coast. North of this latitude, the coast may intersect the seaward edge of a zone of coseismic subsidence that continues southward onshore. Alternatively, the Cascadia subduction zone is segmented near 44-45 degrees N; a segment boundary at this location would suggest that plate-interface events near M w 8 along the central CSZ would be more frequent than larger (M w 9) events. South of this boundary in the Coos Bay region, the tectonic framework developed through mapping and dating of marine and fluvial terraces indicates that many episodes of abrupt marsh burial in south-central Oregon are best interpreted as the product of deformation on local structures. Some of the local deformation could be associated with moderate earthquakes (M s <6). At most sites in south-central Oregon, however, it is still unclear whether coseismic events were responses to local faulting or folding, to regional deformation during great plate-interface earthquakes, or to both. This study has potential implications for risk assessments for light water reactors in North America

  16. Magnetic behaviors of cataclasites within Wenchuan earthquake fault zone in heating experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, L.; Li, H.; Sun, Z.; Chou, Y. M.; Cao, Y., Jr.; Huan, W.; Ye, X.; He, X.

    2017-12-01

    Previous rock magnetism of fault rocks were used to trace the frictional heating temperature, however, few studies are focus on different temperatures effect of rock magnetic properties. To investigate rock magnetic response to different temperature, we conducted heating experiments on cataclasites from the Wenchuan earthquake Fault Scientific Drilling borehole 2 (WFSD-2) cores. Samples of cataclasites were obtained using an electric drill with a 1 cm-diameter drill pipe from 580.65 m-depth. Experiments were performed by a Thermal-optical measurement system under argon atmosphere and elevated temperatures. Both microstructural observations and powder X-ray diffraction analyses show that feldspar and quartz start to melt at 1100 ° and 1300 ° respectively. Magnetic susceptibility values of samples after heating are higher than that before heating. Samples after heating at 700 and 1750 ° have the highest values of magnetic susceptibility. Rock magnetic measurements show that the main ferromagnetic minerals within samples heated below 1100 ° (400, 700, 900 and 1100 °) are magnetite, which is new-formed by transformation of paramagnetic minerals. The χferri results show that the quantity of magnetite is bigger at sample heated by 700° experiment than by 400, 900 and 1100° experiments. Based on the FORC diagrams, we consider that magnetite grains are getting finer from 400 to 900°, and growing coarser when heated from 900 to 1100 °. SEM-EDX results indicate that the pure iron are formed in higher temperature (1300, 1500 and 1750 °), which present as framboids with size values of samples when heated at 400, 700, 900 and 1100°, while the neoformed pure iron is responsible to the higher magnetic susceptibility values of samples when heated at 1300, 1500 and 1750°.

  17. The DSeis Project: Drilling into Seismogenic zones of M2.0 to M5.5 earthquakes in South African gold mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yabe, Y.; Ogasawara, H.; Ito, T.; van Aswegen, G.; Durrheim, R. J.; Cichowicz, A.; Onstott, T. C.; Kieft, T. L.; Boettcher, M. S.; Wiemer, S.; Ziegler, M.; Shapiro, S. A.; Gupta, H. K.; Dight, P.

    2017-12-01

    The DSeis project under ICDP consists of drilling in three mines; MK, TT and C4 mines. Common scientific targets among them are the stress state and the microstructure in the seismogenic zone. In addition to these targets, specific targets in individual mines are detailed below. A M5.5 earthquake occurred beneath the MK mine on 5 August 2014. The hypocenter of this event was 5km depth from the surface. In contrast to the normal faulting of induced earthquakes in mining horizons (planned to evaluate how much is a ratio of microseismicity associated with creation of new fractures. In the C4 mine, there was the site of a previous project, in which the microseismicity monitoring and the stress measurement by the CCBO technique were carried out. A M2.8 earthquake occurred 1 year after the CCBO and its hypocenter was only 100m away from the CCBO site. Due to little mining activity in the source region, the stress state just after the M2.8 event should be preserved. We will measure the stress again. Damage zones that evolved quasi-statically were seen by the microseismicity monitoring. Drilling into these zones would provide a clue to see a difference between faults evolved dynamically and quasi-statically.

  18. Vegetation root zone storage and rooting depth, derived from local calibration of a global hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Ent, R.; Van Beek, R.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wang-Erlandsson, L.; Hessels, T.; Bastiaanssen, W.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2017-12-01

    The storage and dynamics of water in the root zone control many important hydrological processes such as saturation excess overland flow, interflow, recharge, capillary rise, soil evaporation and transpiration. These processes are parameterized in hydrological models or land-surface schemes and the effect on runoff prediction can be large. Root zone parameters in global hydrological models are very uncertain as they cannot be measured directly at the scale on which these models operate. In this paper we calibrate the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB using a state-of-the-art ensemble of evaporation fields derived by solving the energy balance for satellite observations. We focus our calibration on the root zone parameters of PCR-GLOBWB and derive spatial patterns of maximum root zone storage. We find these patterns to correspond well with previous research. The parameterization of our model allows for the conversion of maximum root zone storage to root zone depth and we find that these correspond quite well to the point observations where available. We conclude that climate and soil type should be taken into account when regionalizing measured root depth for a certain vegetation type. We equally find that using evaporation rather than discharge better allows for local adjustment of root zone parameters within a basin and thus provides orthogonal data to diagnose and optimize hydrological models and land surface schemes.

  19. Nanoscale Properties of Rocks and Subduction Zone Rheology: Inferences for the Mechanisms of Deep Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riedel, M. R.

    2007-12-01

    Grain boundaries are the key for the understanding of mineral reaction kinetics. More generally, nanometer scale processes involved in breaking and establishing bonds at reaction sites determine how and at which rate bulk rock properties change in response to external tectonic forcing and possibly feed back into various geodynamic processes. A particular problem is the effects of grain-boundary energy on the kinetics of the olivine-spinel phase transformation in subducting slabs. Slab rheology is affected in many ways by this (metastable) mineral phase change. Sluggish kinetics due to metastable hindrance is likely to cause particular difficulties, because of possible strong non-linear feedback loops between strain-rate and change of creep properties during transformation. In order to get these nanoscale properties included into thermo-mechanical models, reliable kinetic data is required. The measurement of grain-boundary energies is, however, a rather difficult problem. Conventional methods of grain boundary surface tension measurement include (a) equilibrium angles at triple junction (b) rotating ball method (c) thermal groove method, and others (Gottstein & Shvindlerman, 1999). Here I suggest a new method that allows for the derivation of grain-boundary energies for an isochemical phase transformation based on experimental (in-situ) kinetic data in combination with a corresponding dynamic scaling law (Riedel and Karato, 1997). The application of this method to the olivine-spinel phase transformation in subducting slabs provides a solution to the extrapolation problem of measured kinetic data: Any kinetic phase boundary measured at the laboratory time scale can be "scaled" to the correct critical isotherm at subduction zones, under experimentelly "forbidden" conditions (Liou et al., 2000). Consequences for the metastability hypothesis that relates deep seismicity with olivine metastability are derived and discussed. References: Gottstein G, Shvindlerman LS (1999

  20. Monitoring shallow resistivity changes prior to the 12 May 2008 M 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on the Longmen Shan tectonic zone, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Jun; Xie, Tao; Li, Mei; Wang, Yali; Ren, Yuexia; Gao, Shude; Wang, Lanwei; Zhao, Jialiu

    2016-04-01

    An active source measurement of shallow resistivity using fixed-electrode quasi-Schlumberger arrays has been conducted at Pixian, Jiangyou and Wudu stations on the Longmen Shan tectonic zone in western China, with the hope of detecting earthquake-associated changes. For the duration of the monitoring experiment, a gradual decrease of apparent resistivity of up to 6.7% several years prior to the 12 May 2008 M 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake had been recorded clearly at Pixian station, approximately 35 km from the epicenter. The change of apparent resistivity was monitored with a fixed Schlumberger array of AB/MN spacings of 736 m/226 m in the direction of N57.5°E, giving precisions in measured daily averages of 0.16% or less. A coseismic resistivity drop of up to 5.3% was observed at Jiangyou station, using a Schlumberger array of AB/MN spacings of 710 m/90 m in the direction of N10°E. No fluctuation of resistivity was detected at Wudu station at the time of the Wenchuan mainshock. While the focus of this paper is on monitoring or tracking resistivity variations prior to, during, and after the Wenchuan earthquake, we also aim to compare resistivity records of the Wenchuan earthquake to those of the M 7.8 Tangshan and M 7.2 Songpan earthquakes of 1976. Attempts to explain the observed resistivity variations have been made. The results show that the resistivity variations observed at all three stations are in approximate agreement with resistivity-stress behavior deduced from in situ experiments, focal mechanisms, a simplified dynamical model, static stress analyses, and field investigations from along the Longmen Shan fault zone.

  1. Global Discontinuity Structure of the Mantle Transition Zone from Finite-Frequency Tomography of SS Precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Z.; Zhou, Y.

    2017-12-01

    We report global structure of the 410-km and 660-km discontinuities from finite-frequency tomography using frequency-dependent traveltime measurements of SS precursors recorded at the Global Seismological Network (GSN). Finite-frequency sensitivity kernels for discontinuity depth perturbations are calculated in the framework of traveling-wave mode coupling. We parametrize the global discontinuities using a set of spherical triangular grid points and solve the tomographic inverse problem based on singular value decomposition. Our global 410-km and 660-km discontinuity models reveal distinctly different characteristics beneath the oceans and subduction zones. In general, oceanic regions are associated with a thinner mantle transition zone and depth perturbations of the 410-km and 660-km discontinuities are anti-correlated, in agreement with a thermal origin and an overall warm and dry mantle beneath the oceans. The perturbations are not uniform throughout the oceans but show strong small-scale variations, indicating complex processes in the mantle transition zone. In major subduction zones (except for South America where data coverage is sparse), depth perturbations of the 410-km and 660-km discontinuities are correlated, with both the 410-km and the 660-km discontinuities occurring at greater depths. The distributions of the anomalies are consistent with cold stagnant slabs just above the 660-km discontinuity and ascending return flows in a superadiabatic upper mantle.

  2. Structure and composition of the plate-boundary slip zone for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chester, Frederick M; Rowe, Christie; Ujiie, Kohtaro; Kirkpatrick, James; Regalla, Christine; Remitti, Francesca; Moore, J Casey; Toy, Virginia; Wolfson-Schwehr, Monica; Bose, Santanu; Kameda, Jun; Mori, James J; Brodsky, Emily E; Eguchi, Nobuhisa; Toczko, Sean

    2013-12-06

    The mechanics of great subduction earthquakes are influenced by the frictional properties, structure, and composition of the plate-boundary fault. We present observations of the structure and composition of the shallow source fault of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and tsunami from boreholes drilled by the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 343 and 343T. Logging-while-drilling and core-sample observations show a single major plate-boundary fault accommodated the large slip of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake rupture, as well as nearly all the cumulative interplate motion at the drill site. The localization of deformation onto a limited thickness (less than 5 meters) of pelagic clay is the defining characteristic of the shallow earthquake fault, suggesting that the pelagic clay may be a regionally important control on tsunamigenic earthquakes.

  3. Anomalous radon emanation at local and regional distances preceding earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone and adjacent areas of the central mid-continent of North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steele, S.R.

    1984-01-01

    Anomalous soil-radon activity, including several spike-like surges over periods of 5, 2, and 2 1/2 months, and a year-long declining trend, preceded the most significant earthquakes of the central mid-continental region of North America during 1981 and early 1984. The observations of these events provide further evidence of (a) the existence of soil-radon anomalies precursory to the larger earthquakes in this intraplate region, (b) the utility of such anomalies in anticipating events of small to moderate magnitudes for the region, and (c) the occurrence of regional-scale strain events prior to some of the larger mid-continental earthquakes. A very recent radon anomaly, the strongest yet to be detected in the seven years of monitoring in the mid-continental region, occurred in the New Madrid seismic zone from mid-February through mid-June 1984. A 4.0 earthquake occurred one month after a peak in the radon activity. The amplitude and duration of the anomaly suggest that a significant change in the state of stress or strain may have occurred in the mid-continental region during 1984. (Auth.)

  4. The 2012 August 27 Mw7.3 El Salvador earthquake: expression of weak coupling on the Middle America subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geirsson, Halldor; LaFemina, Peter C.; DeMets, Charles; Hernandez, Douglas Antonio; Mattioli, Glen S.; Rogers, Robert; Rodriguez, Manuel; Marroquin, Griselda; Tenorio, Virginia

    2015-09-01

    Subduction zones exhibit variable degrees of interseismic coupling as resolved by inversions of geodetic data and analyses of seismic energy release. The degree to which a plate boundary fault is coupled can have profound effects on its seismogenic behaviour. Here we use GPS measurements to estimate co- and post-seismic deformation from the 2012 August 27, Mw7.3 megathrust earthquake offshore El Salvador, which was a tsunami earthquake. Inversions of estimated coseismic displacements are in agreement with published seismically derived source models, which indicate shallow (earthquake exceeds the coseismic deformation. Our analysis indicates that the post-seismic deformation is dominated by afterslip, as opposed to viscous relaxation, and we estimate a post-seismic moment release one to eight times greater than the coseismic moment during the first 500 d, depending on the relative location of coseismic versus post-seismic slip on the plate interface. We suggest that the excessive post-seismic motion is characteristic for the El Salvador-Nicaragua segment of the Central American margin and may be a characteristic of margins hosting tsunami earthquakes.

  5. Distribution and migration of aftershocks of the 2010 Mw 7.4 Ogasawara Islands intraplate normal-faulting earthquake related to a fracture zone in the Pacific plate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obana, Koichiro; Takahashi, Tsutomu; No, Tetsuo; Kaiho, Yuka; Kodaira, Shuichi; Yamashita, Mikiya; Sato, Takeshi; Nakamura, Takeshi

    2014-04-01

    describe the aftershocks of a Mw 7.4 intraplate normal-faulting earthquake that occurred 150 km east Ogasawara (Bonin) Islands, Japan, on 21 December 2010. It occurred beneath the outer trench slope of the Izu-Ogasawara trench, where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the Philippine Sea plate. Aftershock observations using ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs) began soon after the earthquake and multichannel seismic reflection surveys were conducted across the aftershock area. Aftershocks were distributed in a NW-SE belt 140 km long, oblique to the N-S trench axis. They formed three subparallel lineations along a fracture zone in the Pacific plate. The OBS observations combined with data from stations on Chichi-jima and Haha-jima Islands revealed a migration of the aftershock activity. The first hour, which likely outlines the main shock rupture, was limited to an 80 km long area in the central part of the subsequent aftershock area. The first hour activity occurred mainly around, and appears to have been influenced by, nearby large seamounts and oceanic plateau, such as the Ogasawara Plateau and the Uyeda Ridge. Over the following days, the aftershocks expanded beyond or into these seamounts and plateau. The aftershock distribution and migration suggest that crustal heterogeneities related to a fracture zone and large seamounts and oceanic plateau in the incoming Pacific plate affected the rupture of the main shock. Such preexisting structures may influence intraplate normal-faulting earthquakes in other regions of plate flexure prior to subduction.

  6. Global catalog of earthquake rupture velocities shows anticorrelation between stress drop and rupture velocity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chounet, Agnès; Vallée, Martin; Causse, Mathieu; Courboulex, Françoise

    2018-05-01

    Application of the SCARDEC method provides the apparent source time functions together with seismic moment, depth, and focal mechanism, for most of the recent earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5.6-6. Using this large dataset, we have developed a method to systematically invert for the rupture direction and average rupture velocity Vr, when unilateral rupture propagation dominates. The approach is applied to all the shallow (z earthquakes of the catalog over the 1992-2015 time period. After a careful validation process, rupture properties for a catalog of 96 earthquakes are obtained. The subsequent analysis of this catalog provides several insights about the seismic rupture process. We first report that up-dip ruptures are more abundant than down-dip ruptures for shallow subduction interface earthquakes, which can be understood as a consequence of the material contrast between the slab and the overriding crust. Rupture velocities, which are searched without any a-priori up to the maximal P wave velocity (6000-8000 m/s), are found between 1200 m/s and 4500 m/s. This observation indicates that no earthquakes propagate over long distances with rupture velocity approaching the P wave velocity. Among the 23 ruptures faster than 3100 m/s, we observe both documented supershear ruptures (e.g. the 2001 Kunlun earthquake), and undocumented ruptures that very likely include a supershear phase. We also find that the correlation of Vr with the source duration scaled to the seismic moment (Ts) is very weak. This directly implies that both Ts and Vr are anticorrelated with the stress drop Δσ. This result has implications for the assessment of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) variability. As shown by Causse and Song (2015), an anticorrelation between Δσ and Vr significantly reduces the predicted PGA variability, and brings it closer to the observed variability.

  7. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  8. Analysis of Global Solar Irradiance over Climatic Zones in Nigeria for Solar Energy Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adekunle Ayodotun Osinowo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Satellite derived solar irradiance over 25 locations in the 5 climatic zones of Nigeria (tropical rainforest TRF, Guinea savannah GS, Sahel savannah SHS, Sudan savannah SUS, and Mangrove swamp forest MSF was analyzed. To justify its use, the satellite data was tested for goodness of agreement with ground measured solar radiation data using 26-year mean monthly and daily data over 16 locations in the 5 climatic zones. The well-known R2, RMSE, MBE, and MPE statistical tests were used and good agreement was found. The 25 locations were grouped into the 5 climatic zones. Frequency distribution of global solar irradiance was done for each of the climatic zones. This showed that 46.88%, and 40.6% of the number of days (9794 over TRF and MSF, respectively, had irradiation within the range of 15.01–20.01 MJ/m2/day. For the GS, SHS, and SUS, 46.19%, 55.84% and 58.53% of the days had total irradiation within the range of 20.01–25.01 MJ/m2/day, respectively. Generally, in all the climatic zones, coefficients of variation of solar radiation were high and mean values were low in July and August. Contour maps showed that high and low values of global solar irradiance and clearness index were observed in the Northern and Southern locations of Nigeria, respectively.

  9. Linking fault permeability, fluid flow, and earthquake triggering in a hydrothermally active tectonic setting: Numerical Simulations of the hydrodynamics in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone, Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupi, M.; Geiger, S.; Graham, C.; Claesson, L.; Richter, B.

    2007-12-01

    A good insight into the transient fluid flow evolution within a hydrothermal system is of primary importance for the understanding of several geologic processes, for example the hydrodynamic triggering of earthquakes or the formation of mineral deposits. The strong permeability contrast between different crustal layers as well as the high geothermal gradient of these areas are elements that strongly affect the flow behaviour. In addition, the sudden and transient occurrence of joints, faults and magmatic intrusions are likely to change the hydrothermal flow paths in very short time. The Tjörnes Fracture Zone (TFZ) north of Iceland, is such a hydrothermal area where a high geothermal gradient, magmatic bodies, faults, and the strong contrast between sediments and fractured lava layers govern the large-scale fluid flow. The TFZ offsets the Kolbeinsey Ridge and the Northern Rift Zone. It is characterized by km-scale faults that link sub-seafloor sediments and lava layers with deeper crystalline rocks. These structures focus fluid flow and allow for the mixing between cold seawater and deep hydrothermal fluids. A strong seismic activity is present in the TFZ: earthquakes up to magnitude 7 have been recorded over the past years. Hydrogeochemical changes before, during and after a magnitude 5.8 earthquake suggest that the evolving stress state before the earthquake leads to (remote) permeability variations, which alter the fluid flow paths. This is in agreement with recent numerical fluid flow simulations which demonstrate that fluid flow in magmatic- hydrothermal systems is often convective and very sensitive to small variations in permeability. In order to understand the transient fluid flow behaviour in this complex geological environment, we have conducted numerical simulations of heat and mass transport in two geologically realistic cross-sectional models of the TFZ. The geologic models are discretised using finite element and finite volume methods. They hence have

  10. Thumbnail‐based questionnaires for the rapid and efficient collection of macroseismic data from global earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, Remy; Landes, Matthieu; Roussel, Frederic; Steed, Robert; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Martin, Stacey S.; Hough, Susan E.

    2017-01-01

    The collection of earthquake testimonies (i.e., qualitative descriptions of felt shaking) is essential for macroseismic studies (i.e., studies gathering information on how strongly an earthquake was felt in different places), and when done rapidly and systematically, improves situational awareness and in turn can contribute to efficient emergency response. In this study, we present advances made in the collection of testimonies following earthquakes around the world using a thumbnail‐based questionnaire implemented on the European‐Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) smartphone app and its website compatible for mobile devices. In both instances, the questionnaire consists of a selection of thumbnails, each representing an intensity level of the European Macroseismic Scale 1998. We find that testimonies are collected faster, and in larger numbers, by way of thumbnail‐based questionnaires than by more traditional online questionnaires. Responses were received from all seismically active regions of our planet, suggesting that thumbnails overcome language barriers. We also observed that the app is not sufficient on its own, because the websites are the main source of testimonies when an earthquake strikes a region for the first time in a while; it is only for subsequent shocks that the app is widely used. Notably though, the speed of the collection of testimonies increases significantly when the app is used. We find that automated EMSC intensities as assigned by user‐specified thumbnails are, on average, well correlated with “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) responses and with the three independently and manually derived macroseismic datasets, but there is a tendency for EMSC to be biased low with respect to DYFI at moderate and large intensities. We address this by proposing a simple adjustment that will be verified in future earthquakes.

  11. The global historical and future economic loss and cost of earthquakes during the production of adaptive worldwide economic fragility functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2014-05-01

    macroseismic intensity, capital stock estimate, GDP estimate, year and the combined seismic building index (a created combination of the global seismic code index, building practice factor, building age and infrastructure vulnerability). The analysis provided three key results: a) The production of economic fragility functions from the 1900-2008 events showed very good correlation to the economic loss and cost from earthquakes from 2009-2013, in real-time. This methodology has been extended to other natural disaster types (typhoon, flood, drought). b) The reanalysis of historical earthquake events in order to check associated historical loss and costs versus the expected exposure in terms of intensities. The 1939 Chillan, 1948 Turkmenistan, 1950 Iran, 1972 Managua, 1980 Western Nepal and 1992 Erzincan earthquake events were seen as huge outliers compared with the modelled capital stock and GDP and thus additional studies were undertaken to check the original loss results. c) A worldwide GIS layer database of capital stock (gross and net), GDP, infrastructure age and economic indices over the period 1900-2013 have been created in conjunction with the CATDAT database in order to define correct economic loss and costs.

  12. Evaluating a kinematic method for generating broadband ground motions for great subduction zone earthquakes: Application to the 2003 Mw 8.3 Tokachi‐Oki earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirth, Erin A.; Frankel, Arthur; Vidale, John E.

    2017-01-01

    We compare broadband synthetic seismograms with recordings of the 2003 Mw">MwMw 8.3 Tokachi‐Oki earthquake to evaluate a compound rupture model, in which slip on the fault consists of multiple high‐stress‐drop asperities superimposed on a background slip distribution with longer rise times. Low‐frequency synthetics (frequency (>1  Hz">>1  Hz>1  Hz) stochastic synthetics using a matched filter at 1 Hz. We show that this compound rupture model and overall approach accurately reproduces waveform envelopes and observed response spectral accelerations (SAs) from the Tokachi‐Oki event. We find that sufficiently short subfault rise times (i.e., ∼1  Hz∼1  Hz. This is achieved by either (1) including distinct subevents with short rise times, as may be suggested by the Tokachi‐Oki data, or (2) imposing a fast‐slip velocity over the entire rupture area. We also include a systematic study on the effects of varying several kinematic rupture parameters. We find that simulated strong ground motions are sensitive to the average rupture velocity and coherence of the rupture front, with more coherent ruptures yielding higher response SAs. We also assess the effects of varying the average slip velocity and the character (i.e., area, magnitude, and location) of high‐stress‐drop subevents. Even in the absence of precise constraints on these kinematic rupture parameters, our simulations still reproduce major features in the Tokachi‐Oki earthquake data, supporting its accuracy in modeling future large earthquakes.

  13. Building Capacity for Earthquake Monitoring: Linking Regional Networks with the Global Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willemann, R. J.; Lerner-Lam, A.

    2006-12-01

    Installing or upgrading a seismic monitoring network is often among the mitigation efforts after earthquake disasters, and this is happening in response to the events both in Sumatra during December 2004 and in Pakistan during October 2005. These networks can yield improved hazard assessment, more resilient buildings where they are most needed, and emergency relief directed more quickly to the worst hit areas after the next large earthquake. Several commercial organizations are well prepared for the fleeting opportunity to provide the instruments that comprise a seismic network, including sensors, data loggers, telemetry stations, and the computers and software required for the network center. But seismic monitoring requires more than hardware and software, no matter how advanced. A well-trained staff is required to select appropriate and mutually compatible components, install and maintain telemetered stations, manage and archive data, and perform the analyses that actually yield the intended benefits. Monitoring is more effective when network operators cooperate with a larger community through free and open exchange of data, sharing information about working practices, and international collaboration in research. As an academic consortium, a facility operator and a founding member of the International Federation of Digital Seismographic Networks, IRIS has access to a broad range of expertise with the skills that are required to help design, install, and operate a seismic network and earthquake analysis center, and stimulate the core training for the professional teams required to establish and maintain these facilities. But delivering expertise quickly when and where it is unexpectedly in demand requires advance planning and coordination in order to respond to the needs of organizations that are building a seismic network, either with tight time constraints imposed by the budget cycles of aid agencies following a disastrous earthquake, or as part of more informed

  14. A global outer-rise/outer-trench-slope (OR/OTS) earthquake study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wartman, J. M.; Kita, S.; Kirby, S. H.; Choy, G. L.

    2009-12-01

    Using improved seismic, bathymetric, satellite gravity and other geophysical data, we investigated the seismicity patterns and focal mechanisms of earthquakes in oceanic lithosphere off the trenches of the world that are large enough to be well recorded at teleseismic distances. A number of prominent trends are apparent, some of which have been previously recognized based on more limited data [1], and some of which are largely new [2-5]: (1) The largest events and the highest seismicity rates tend to occur where Mesozoic incoming plates are subducting at high rates (e.g., those in the western Pacific and the Banda segment of Indonesia). The largest events are predominantly shallow normal faulting (SNF) earthquakes. Less common are reverse-faulting (RF) events that tend to be deeper and to be present along with SNF events where nearby seamounts, seamount chains and other volcanic features are subducting [Seno and Yamanaka, 1996]. Blooms of SNF OR/OTS events usually occur just after and seaward of great interplate thrust (IPT) earthquakes but are far less common after smaller IPT events. (2) Plates subducting at slow rates (Chile, the Ninety East Ridge in Sumatra, and the D’Entrecastaux Ridge in Vanuatu).

  15. Roman, Visigothic and Islamic evidence of earthquakes recorded in the archaeological site of “El Tolmo de Minateda” (Prebetic Zone, southeast of Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Pascua, M.A.; Abad Casal, L.; Pérez-López, R.; Gamo Parra, B.; Silva, P.G.; Garduño-Monroy, V.H.; Giner-Robles, J.L.; Perucha, M.A.; Israde-Alcántara, I.; Bischoff, J.; Calvo, J.P.

    2013-01-01

    The archaeological site of “El Tolmo de Minateda” is located within the Albacete province (SE of Spain) and shows a continuous time record of ancient civilizations from 3500 yr BP onwards. However, three temporal gaps were identified in this archaeological record, all of them in relationship with a sudden and unclear abandonment of the city (Centuries 1st, 7th and 9-10th). The Archaeological Earthquake Effects (EAEs) supports the possibility that moderate to strong earthquakes were the cause of such abandonments: oriented columns fallen, collapsed walls and arches, abandonment of irrigation systems and fresh-water supplies, crashed pottery, etc. Despite of the scarce of instrumental seismicity and a few historical chronicles, paleoseismic studies performed in the neighbouring zone (Tobarra) suggest the presence of closer seismic sources as faults (Pozohondo Fault) affecting Quaternary alluvial, lacustrine deposits and colluviums. In this work, we propose the possibility that three moderate earthquakes devastated the ancient Roman city of Ilunum (Century 1st AD), the Visigothic city of Elo (Century 7th AD) and the Islamic city of Madinat Iyih (Century 9th-10thAD), all of them the same place: “El Tolmo de Minateda”.

  16. The profound reach of the 11 April 2012 M 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake: Short‐term global triggering followed by a longer‐term global shadow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollitz, Fred; Burgmann, Roland; Stein, Ross S.; Sevilgen, Volkan

    2014-01-01

    The 11 April 2012 M 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake was an unusually large intraoceanic strike‐slip event. For several days, the global M≥4.5 and M≥6.5 seismicity rate at remote distances (i.e., thousands of kilometers from the mainshock) was elevated. The strike‐slip mainshock appears through its Love waves to have triggered a global burst of strike‐slip aftershocks over several days. But the M≥6.5 rate subsequently dropped to zero for the succeeding 95 days, although the M≤6.0 global rate was close to background during this period. Such an extended period without an M≥6.5 event has happened rarely over the past century, and never after a large mainshock. Quiescent periods following previous large (M≥8) mainshocks over the past century are either much shorter or begin so long after a given mainshock that no physical interpretation is warranted. The 2012 mainshock is unique in terms of both the short‐lived global increase and subsequent long quiescent period. We believe that the two components are linked and interpret this pattern as the product of dynamic stressing of a global system of faults. Transient dynamic stresses can encourage short‐term triggering, but, paradoxically, it can also inhibit rupture temporarily until background tectonic loading restores the system to its premainshock stress levels.

  17. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  18. Geomagnetic signal induced by the M5.7 earthquake occurred on September 24-th, 2016, in the seismic active Vrancea zone, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanica, Dumitru; Armand Stanica, Dragos

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, we used the geomagnetic time series collected in real time by the electromagnetic monitoring system, placed at the Geomagnetic Observatory Provita de Sus, to emphasize possible relationships between the pre-seismic anomalous behavior of the normalized function Bzn and M5.7 earthquake occurrence in Vrancea seismic active zone, on September 24, 2016. It has already been demonstrated (Stanica and Stanica, 2012, Stanica et al., 2015) that for a 2D geoelectric structure, in pre-seismic conditions, the normalized function Bzn has significant changes in magnitudes due to the electrical conductivity changes, possibly associated with the earthquake-induced rupture-processes and high-pressure fluid flow through the faulting systems developed inside the Vrancea seismogenic volume and along the Carpathian electrical conductivity anomaly. In this circumstances, the daily mean distributions of the Bzn = Bz/Bperp (where Bz is vertical component of the geomagnetic field; Bperp is geomagnetic component perpendicular to the geoelectric strike) and its standard deviation (SD) are performed in the ULF frequency range 0.001Hz to 0.0083Hz by using both the FFT band-pass filter analysis and statistical analysis based on a standardized random variable equation. After analyzing the pre-seismic anomalous intervals, a pre-seismic geomagnetic signal greater than 5 SD was identified on September 22, 2016, what means a lead time of 2 days before the M5.7 earthquake occurred on September 24, emphasized in real time on the web site (www.geodin.ro). The final conclusion is that the proposed geomagnetic methodology might be used to provide suitable information for the extreme seismic hazard assessment and risk mitigation. References: Dumitru Stanica and Dragos Armand Stanica, Earthquakes precursors, in "Earthquake Research and Analysis-Statistical Studies, Observations and Planning" Book 5, edited by: Dr. Sebastiano D'Amico, ISBN 978-953-51-0134-5, InTech open access publisher

  19. Cenozoic pulsed compression of Da'an-Dedu Fault Zone in Songliao Basin (NE China) and its implications for earthquake potential: Evidence from seismic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhongyuan; Zhang, Peizhen; Min, Wei; Wei, Qinghai; Zhao, Bin

    2018-01-01

    The Da'an-Dedu Fault Zone (DDFZ) is a major tectonic feature cutting through the Songliao Basin from south to north in NE China. Pulsed compression deformation of DDFZ during the Cenozoic implies a complex geodynamic process, and the latest stage of which occurred in the Quaternary directly influences the present seismicity of the interior basin. Although most of the evidence for Quaternary deformation about the Songliao Basin in the past decades was concentrated in marginal faults, all five earthquake swarms with magnitudes over 5.0 along the buried DDFZ with no surface expression during the past 30 years suggest it is a main seismogenic structure with seismic potential, which should deserve more attention of geologists. However, limited by the coverage of the Quaternary sedimentary and absence of strong historic and instrumental earthquakes records (M > 7), the geometric pattern, Quaternary activity and seismic potential of the DDFZ remain poorly understood. Thus, unlike previous geophysical studies focused on crust/mantle velocity structure across the fault and the aim of exploring possible mineral resources in the basin, in this study we have integrated a variety of the latest seismic data and drilling holes from petroleum explorations and shallow-depth seismic reflection profiles, to recognize the Cenozoic pulsed compression deformation of the DDFZ, and to discuss its implication for earthquake potential. The results show that at least four stages of compression deformation have occurred along the DDFZ in the Cenozoic: 65 Ma, 23 Ma, 5.3 Ma, and 1.8 Ma, respectively, although the geodynamic process behind which still in dispute. The results also imply that the tectonic style of the DDFZ fits well with the occurrence of modern seismic swarms. Moderate earthquake potential (M ≤ 7.0) is suggested along the DDFZ.

  20. Design and application of the emergency response mobile phone-based information system for infectious disease reporting in the Wenchuan earthquake zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jiaqi; Zhou, Maigeng; Li, Yanfei; Guo, Yan; Su, Xuemei; Qi, Xiaopeng; Ge, Hui

    2009-05-01

    To describe the design and application of an emergency response mobile phone-based information system for infectious disease reporting. Software engineering and business modeling were used to design and develop the emergency response mobile phone-based information system for infectious disease reporting. Seven days after the initiation of the reporting system, the reporting rate in the earthquake zone reached the level of the same period in 2007, using the mobile phone-based information system. Surveillance of the weekly report on morbidity in the earthquake zone after the initiation of the mobile phone reporting system showed the same trend as the previous three years. The emergency response mobile phone-based information system for infectious disease reporting was an effective solution to transmit urgently needed reports and manage communicable disease surveillance information. This assured the consistency of disease surveillance and facilitated sensitive, accurate, and timely disease surveillance. It is an important backup for the internet-based direct reporting system for communicable disease. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd and Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University.

  1. Global Positioning System data collection, processing, and analysis conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Jessica R.; Svarc, Jerry L.

    2017-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center collects and processes Global Positioning System (GPS) data throughout the western United States to measure crustal deformation related to earthquakes and tectonic processes as part of a long‐term program of research and monitoring. Here, we outline data collection procedures and present the GPS dataset built through repeated temporary deployments since 1992. This dataset consists of observations at ∼1950 locations. In addition, this article details our data processing and analysis procedures, which consist of the following. We process the raw data collected through temporary deployments, in addition to data from continuously operating western U.S. GPS stations operated by multiple agencies, using the GIPSY software package to obtain position time series. Subsequently, we align the positions to a common reference frame, determine the optimal parameters for a temporally correlated noise model, and apply this noise model when carrying out time‐series analysis to derive deformation measures, including constant interseismic velocities, coseismic offsets, and transient postseismic motion.

  2. Earthquake hazard zonation using peak ground acceleration (PGA) approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irwansyah, E; Winarko, E; Rasjid, Z E; Bekti, R D

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this research is to develop seismic hazard area zones in the building infrastructure of the Banda Aceh City Indonesia using peak ground acceleration (PGA) measured using global and local attenuation function. PGA is calculated using attenuation function that describes the correlation between the local ground movement intensity the earthquake magnitude and the distance from the earthquake's epicentre. The data used comes from the earthquake damage catalogue available from the Indonesia meteorology, climatology and geophysics agency (BMKG) with range from year 1973 – 2011. The research methodology consists of six steps, which is developing the grid, calculation of the distance from the epicentre to the centroid of the grid, calculation of PGA values, developing the computer application, plotting the PGA values to the centroid grid, and developing the earthquake hazard zones using kriging algorithm. The conclusion of this research is that the global attenuation function that was developed by [20] can be applied to calculate the PGA values in the city of Banda Aceh. Banda Aceh city in micro scale can be divided into three hazard zones which is low hazard zone with PGA value of 0.8767 gals up to 0.8780 gals, medium hazard zone with PGA values of 0.8781 up to 0.8793 gals and high hazard zone with PGA values of 0.8794 up to 0.8806 gals.

  3. The bayesian probabilistic prediction of the next earthquake in the ometepec segment of the mexican subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraes, Sergio G.

    1992-06-01

    A predictive equation to estimate the next interoccurrence time (τ) for the next earthquake ( M≥6) in the Ometepec segment is presented, based on Bayes' theorem and the Gaussian process. Bayes' theorem is used to relate the Gaussian process to both a log-normal distribution of recurrence times (τ) and a log-normal distribution of magnitudes ( M) ( Nishenko and Buland, 1987; Lomnitz, 1964). We constructed two new random variables X=In M and Y=In τ with normal marginal densities, and based on the Gaussian process model we assume that their joint density is normal. Using this information, we determine the Bayesian conditional probability. Finally, a predictive equation is derived, based on the criterion of maximization of the Bayesian conditional probability. The model forecasts the next interoccurrence time, conditional on the magnitude of the last event. Realistic estimates of future damaging earthquakes are based on relocated historical earthquakes. However, at the present time there is a controversy between Nishenko-Singh and Gonzalez-Ruiz-Mc-Nally concerning the rupturing process of the 1907 earthquake. We use our Bayesian analysis to examine and discuss this very important controversy. To clarify to the full significance of the analysis, we put forward the results using two catalogues: (1) The Ometepec catalogue without the 1907 earthquake (González-Ruíz-McNally), and (2) the Ometepec catalogue including the 1907 earthquake (Nishenko-Singh). The comparison of the prediction error reveals that in the Nishenko-Singh catalogue, the errors are considerably smaller than the average error for the González-Ruíz-McNally catalogue of relocated events. Finally, using the Nishenko-Singh catalogue which locates the 1907 event inside the Ometepec segment, we conclude that the next expected damaging earthquake ( M≥6.0) will occur approximately within the next time interval τ=11.82 years from the last event (which occurred on July 2, 1984), or equivalently will

  4. Global Transition Zone Anisotropy and Consequences for Mantle Flow and Earth's Deep Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beghein, C.; Yuan, K.

    2011-12-01

    The transition zone has long been at the center of the debate between multi- and single-layered convection models that directly relate to heat transport and chemical mixing throughout the mantle. It has also been suggested that the transition zone is a reservoir that collects water transported by subduction of the lithosphere into the mantle. Since water lowers mantle minerals density and viscosity, thereby modifying their rheology and melting behavior, it likely affects global mantle dynamics and the history of plate tectonics. Constraining mantle flow is therefore important for our understanding of Earth's thermochemical evolution and deep water cycle. Because it can result from deformation by dislocation creep during convection, seismic anisotropy can help us model mantle flow. It is relatively well constrained in the uppermost mantle, but its presence in the transition zone is still debated. Its detection below 250 km depth has been challenging to date because of the poor vertical resolution of commonly used datasets. In this study, we used global Love wave overtone phase velocity maps, which are sensitive to structure down to much larger depths than fundamental modes alone, and have greater depth resolution than shear wave-splitting data. This enabled us to obtain a first 3-D model of azimuthal anisotropy for the upper 800km of the mantle. We inverted the 2Ψ terms of anisotropic phase velocity maps [Visser, et al., 2008] for the first five Love wave overtones between 35s and 174s period. The resulting model shows that the average anisotropy amplitude for vertically polarized shear waves displays two main stable peaks: one in the uppermost mantle and, most remarkably, one in the lower transition zone. F-tests showed that the presence of 2Ψ anisotropy in the transition zone is required to improve the third, fourth, and fifth overtones fit. Because of parameter trade-offs, however, we cannot exclude that the anisotropy is located in the upper transition zone as

  5. Auroral Electrojet Index Designed to Provide a Global Measure, l-minute Intervals, of Auroral Zone Magnetic Activity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Auroral Electrojet index (AE) is designed to provide a global quantitative measure of auroral zone magnetic activity produced by enhanced ionospheric currents...

  6. Auroral Electrojet Indices Designed to Provide a Global Measure, 2.5-Minute Intervals, of Auroral Zone Magnetic Activity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Auroral Electrojet index (AE) is designed to provide a global quantitative measure of auroral zone magnetic activity produced by enhanced ionospheric currents...

  7. Graduated Sovereignty and Global Governance Gaps: Special Economic Zones and the Illicit Trade In Tobacco Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holden, Chris

    2017-07-01

    Illicit trade in tobacco products has been a significant problem globally for many years. It allows cigarettes to be sold far below their legal price and thus contributes to higher consumption, morbidity and mortality, and deprives state treasuries of a substantial amount of revenue. This article identifies special economic zones (SEZs), particularly free trade zones, as a key conduit for this illicit trade. The development of SEZs as weak points in the global governance architecture is explained with reference to the concept of 'graduated sovereignty', whereby the uniform management of territory by modern states has given way to a more spatially selective form of territorial governance, in which some slices of territory are more fully integrated into the world economy than others via various forms of differential regulation. Attempts to comprehensively (re)regulate SEZs, in the face of growing evidence of the dysfunctionalities that they can engender, have so far been unsuccessful. It is concluded that the neo-liberal global economy has facilitated a regulatory 'race to the bottom', a problem that can only ultimately be overcome by international negotiation and agreement.

  8. Seismic ACROSS Transmitter Installed at Morimachi above the Subducting Philippine Sea Plate for the Test Monitoring of the Seismogenic Zone of Tokai Earthquake not yet to Occur

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunitomo, T.; Kumazawa, M.; Masuda, T.; Morita, N.; Torii, T.; Ishikawa, Y.; Yoshikawa, S.; Katsumata, A.; Yoshida, Y.

    2008-12-01

    Here we report the first seismic monitoring system in active and constant operation for the wave propagation characteristics in tectonic region just above the subducting plate driving the coming catastrophic earthquakes. Developmental works of such a system (ACROSS; acronym for Accurately Controlled, Routinely Operated, Signal System) have been started in 1994 at Nagoya University and since 1996 also at TGC (Tono Geoscience Center) of JAEA promoted by Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquakes (1995 Jan.17, Mj=7.3). The ACROSS is a technology system including theory of signal and data processing based on the brand new concept of measurement methodology of Green function between a signal source and observation site. The works done for first generation system are reported at IWAM04 and in JAEA report (Kumazawa et al.,2007). The Meteorological Research Institute of JMA has started a project of test monitoring of Tokai area in 2004 in corporation with Shizuoka University to realize the practical use of the seismic ACROSS for earthquake prediction researches. The first target was set to Tokai Earthquake not yet to take place. The seismic ACROSS transmitter was designed so as to be appropriate for the sensitive monitoring of the deep active fault zone on the basis of the previous technology elements accumulated so far. The ground coupler (antenna) is a large steel-reinforced concrete block (over 20m3) installed in the basement rocks in order to preserve the stability. Eccentric moment of the rotary transmitter is 82 kgm at maximum, 10 times larger than that of the first generation. Carrier frequency of FM signal for practical use can be from 3.5 to 15 Hz, and the signal phase is accurately controlled by a motor with vector inverter synchronized with GPS clock with a precision of 10-4 radian or better. By referring to the existing structure model in this area (Iidaka et al., 2003), the site of the transmitting station was chosen at Morimachi so as to be appropriate for detecting the

  9. Expanding Horizons in Mitigating Earthquake Related Disasters in Urban Areas: Global Development of Real-Time Seismology

    OpenAIRE

    Utkucu, Murat; Küyük, Hüseyin Serdar; Demir, İsmail Hakkı

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Real-time seismology is a newly developing alternative approach in seismology to mitigate earthquake hazard. It exploits up-to-date advances in seismic instrument technology, data acquisition, digital communications and computer systems for quickly transforming data into earthquake information in real-time to reduce earthquake losses and its impact on social and economic life in the earthquake prone densely populated urban and industrial areas.  Real-time seismology systems are not o...

  10. National and Global Infrastructure of the Arctic Zone of the APR: New Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Khananovich Krasnopolskiy

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article addresses issues of formation of the national and global infrastructure in the Arctic and its Asia-Pacific zone in the context of the new challenges in the development of the region, associated mainly with the political and military deterioration of relations between Russia and the United States. The study also characterizes international experience in the area of infrastructure researches and presents strategic documents of both countries in the sphere of the study and development of the Arctic and its territories. The author concludes that research organizations need to overcome their passivity to strengthen cooperation between these structures from both sides, which is absolutely essential for the development of a global scientific and other kinds of infrastructure and for the further successful, rational and effective exploitation of the Arctic areas

  11. GPS Versus Seismological Observations in two Seismogenic Zones in the Adria-Alps- Pannon System; Block Motion vs. Diffuse Deformation, Increased Earthquake Potential vs. Aseismic Slip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenerczy, G.; Bus, Z.; Toth, L.; Monus, P.

    2008-12-01

    The tectonic activity, seismicity and the associated seismic hazard is highly variable in the Adria-Alps-Pannon region. The engine of the system is the Adria microplate that compresses a puzzle of crustal blocks towards the European Platform. Based on seismicity and data of continuous and campaign style GPS measurements between 1991 and 2007 we investigated the existence of different blocks and their present kinematics. At the resolution and signal level we have, deformation seems to be more diffuse and block motion is no longer recognizable over the Pannonian basin towards the Carpathains. Although towards the basin seismicity decreases to moderate, the vulnerability is still high, as three capital cities are located near to the two most active seismic zones in this subregion. Each cities and their suburbs produce about 30- 40 % of the GDP of the respective countries. In the second par of our analysis these two seismically active areas, the Mur-Murz and Central Pannonian zones, are investigated. Uniform strain rates and relative displacements were calculated for these regions. The GPS data confirm the mostly left lateral strike slip character of the Mur-Murz fault zone and suggest a contraction between the eastward moving Alpine-North Pannonian unit and the Carpathians. The computation of the seismic strain rate was based on the Kostrov summation. The averaged unit norm seismic moment tensor, which describes the characteristic style of deformation, has been obtained by using the available focal mechanism solutions, whereas the annual seismic moment release showing the rate of the deformation was estimated using the catalogs of historical and recent earthquakes. Our analysis reveals that in both zones the geodetic strain rate is significantly larger than the seismic deformation. Based on the weakness of the lithosphere, the stress magnitudes and the regional features of seismicity, we suggest that the low value of the seismic/geodetic strain rate ratio in the

  12. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  13. Mapping the b-values along the Longmenshan fault zone before and after the 12 May 2008, Wenchuan, China, MS 8.0 earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Z. Zhao

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The b-value in the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude distribution, which is assumed to be related to stress heterogeneity or asperities, was mapped along the Longmenshan fault zone which accommodated the 12 May 2008, Wenchuan, MS 8.0 earthquake. Spatial distributions of b-value before and after the Wenchuan earthquake, respectively, were compared with the slip distribution of the mainshock. It is shown that the mainshock rupture nucleated near to, but not within, the high-stress (low b-value asperity in the south part of the Longmenshan fault, propagating north-eastward to the relatively low stress (high b-value region. Due to the significant difference between the rupture process results from different sources, the comparison between slip distribution and pre-seismic b-value distribution leads to only conclusion of the rule-of-thumb. The temporal change of b-value before the mainshock shows a weak trend of decreasing, being hard to be used as an indicator of the approaching of the mainshock. Distribution of b-values for the aftershocks relates the termination of the mainshock rupture to the harder patch along the Longmenshan fault to the north.

  14. An upper limit for slow-earthquake zones: self-oscillatory behavior through the Hopf bifurcation mechanism from a spring-block model under lubricated surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos-Rodríguez, Valentina; Campos-Cantón, Eric; Barboza-Gudiño, Rafael; Femat, Ricardo

    2017-08-01

    The complex oscillatory behavior of a spring-block model is analyzed via the Hopf bifurcation mechanism. The mathematical spring-block model includes Dieterich-Ruina's friction law and Stribeck's effect. The existence of self-sustained oscillations in the transition zone - where slow earthquakes are generated within the frictionally unstable region - is determined. An upper limit for this region is proposed as a function of seismic parameters and frictional coefficients which are concerned with presence of fluids in the system. The importance of the characteristic length scale L, the implications of fluids, and the effects of external perturbations in the complex dynamic oscillatory behavior, as well as in the stationary solution, are take into consideration.

  15. Modelling of Earthquake History of the Knidos Fault Zone SW Turkey Using in-situ 36Cl Surface Exposure Dating by R

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, S.; Yıldırım, C.; Sarıkaya, M. A.; Tuysuz, O.; Genç, S. C.; Aksoy, M. E.; Doksanaltı, M. E.; Benedetti, L.

    2016-12-01

    Cosmogenic surface exposure dating is based on the production of rare nuclides in exposed rocks, which interact with cosmic rays. Through modelling of measured 36Cl concentrations, we might obtain information of the history of the earthquake activity. Yet, there are several factors which may impact production of rare nuclides such as geometry of fault, topography, geographic location of study area, temporal variations of the Earth's magnetic field, self-cover and denudation rate on the scarp. Our study area, the Knidos Fault Zone, is located on the Datça Peninsula in the Southwestern Anatolia and contains several normal fault scarps formed within the limestone, which are appropriate to apply cosmogenic chlorine-36 dating. Since it has a well-preserved scarp, we have focused on the Mezarlık Segment of the fault zone, which has an average length of 300 m and height 12-15 m. 128 continuous samples from top to bottom of the fault scarp were collected to carry out analysis of cosmic 36Cl isotopes concentrations. Recent research elucidated each step of the application of this method by the Matlab (e.g. Schlagenhauf et al., 2010). It is vitally helpful to generate models activity of normal faults. We, however, wanted to build a user-friendly program through an open source programing language R that might be able to help those without knowledge of complex math, programming, making calculations as easy as possible. We have set out to obtain accurate conclusions to compare and contrast our results with synthetic profiles and previous studies of limestone fault scarps. The preliminary results indicate at least three major or more earthquakes/earthquakes cluster events occurred on the Mezarlık fault within the past 20 kyr; over 10 meters of displacement took place between early Holocene and late Pleistocene. Estimated ages of those three large slip events are 18.7, 15.1 and 10.8 ka respectively. This study was conducted with the Decision of the Council of Ministers with No

  16. Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

    2018-05-21

    As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

  17. Deep-water turbidites as Holocene earthquake proxies: the Cascadia subduction zone and Northern San Andreas Fault systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Johnson

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available New stratigraphic evidence from the Cascadia margin demonstrates that 13 earthquakes ruptured the margin from Vancouver Island to at least the California border following the catastrophic eruption of Mount Mazama. These 13 events have occurred with an average repeat time of ?? 600 years since the first post-Mazama event ?? 7500 years ago. The youngest event ?? 300 years ago probably coincides with widespread evidence of coastal subsidence and tsunami inundation in buried marshes along the Cascadia coast. We can extend the Holocene record to at least 9850 years, during which 18 events correlate along the same region. The pattern of repeat times is consistent with the pattern observed at most (but not all localities onshore, strengthening the contention that both were produced by plate-wide earthquakes. We also observe that the sequence of Holocene events in Cascadia may contain a repeating pattern, a tantalizing look at what may be the long-term behavior of a major fault system. Over the last ?? 7500 years, the pattern appears to have repeated at least three times, with the most recent A.D. 1700 event being the third of three events following a long interval of 845 years between events T4 and T5. This long interval is one that is also recognized in many of the coastal records, and may serve as an anchor point between the offshore and onshore records. Similar stratigraphic records are found in two piston cores and one box core from Noyo Channel, adjacent to the Northern San Andreas Fault, which show a cyclic record of turbidite beds, with thirty- one turbidite beds above a Holocene/.Pleistocene faunal «datum». Thus far, we have determined ages for 20 events including the uppermost 5 events from these cores. The uppermost event returns a «modern» age, which we interpret is likely the 1906 San Andreas earthquake. The penultimate event returns an intercept age of A.D. 1664 (2 ?? range 1505- 1822. The third event and fourth event

  18. Physics-based and statistical earthquake forecasting in a continental rift zone: the case study of Corinth Gulf (Greece)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segou, Margarita

    2016-01-01

    I perform a retrospective forecast experiment in the most rapid extensive continental rift worldwide, the western Corinth Gulf (wCG, Greece), aiming to predict shallow seismicity (depth statistics, four physics-based (CRS) models, combining static stress change estimations and the rate-and-state laboratory law and one hybrid model. For the latter models, I incorporate the stress changes imparted from 31 earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 4.5 at the extended area of wCG. Special attention is given on the 3-D representation of active faults, acting as potential receiver planes for the estimation of static stress changes. I use reference seismicity between 1990 and 1995, corresponding to the learning phase of physics-based models, and I evaluate the forecasts for six months following the 1995 M = 6.4 Aigio earthquake using log-likelihood performance metrics. For the ETAS realizations, I use seismic events with magnitude M ≥ 2.5 within daily update intervals to enhance their predictive power. For assessing the role of background seismicity, I implement a stochastic reconstruction (aka declustering) aiming to answer whether M > 4.5 earthquakes correspond to spontaneous events and identify, if possible, different triggering characteristics between aftershock sequences and swarm-type seismicity periods. I find that: (1) ETAS models outperform CRS models in most time intervals achieving very low rejection ratio RN = 6 per cent, when I test their efficiency to forecast the total number of events inside the study area, (2) the best rejection ratio for CRS models reaches RN = 17 per cent, when I use varying target depths and receiver plane geometry, (3) 75 per cent of the 1995 Aigio aftershocks that occurred within the first month can be explained by static stress changes, (4) highly variable performance on behalf of both statistical and physical models is suggested by large confidence intervals of information gain per earthquake and (5) generic ETAS models can adequately

  19. Global 3-D FDTD Maxwell's-Equations Modeling of Ionospheric Disturbances Associated with Earthquakes Using an Optimized Geodesic Grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, J. J.; Taflove, A.

    2005-12-01

    We report a finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) computational solution of Maxwell's equations [1] that models the possibility of detecting and characterizing ionospheric disturbances above seismic regions. Specifically, we study anomalies in Schumann resonance spectra in the extremely low frequency (ELF) range below 30 Hz as observed in Japan caused by a hypothetical cylindrical ionospheric disturbance above Taiwan. We consider excitation of the global Earth-ionosphere waveguide by lightning in three major thunderstorm regions of the world: Southeast Asia, South America (Amazon region), and Africa. Furthermore, we investigate varying geometries and characteristics of the ionospheric disturbance above Taiwan. The FDTD technique used in this study enables a direct, full-vector, three-dimensional (3-D) time-domain Maxwell's equations calculation of round-the-world ELF propagation accounting for arbitrary horizontal as well as vertical geometrical and electrical inhomogeneities and anisotropies of the excitation, ionosphere, lithosphere, and oceans. Our entire-Earth model grids the annular lithosphere-atmosphere volume within 100 km of sea level, and contains over 6,500,000 grid-points (63 km laterally between adjacent grid points, 5 km radial resolution). We use our recently developed spherical geodesic gridding technique having a spatial discretization best described as resembling the surface of a soccer ball [2]. The grid is comprised entirely of hexagonal cells except for a small fixed number of pentagonal cells needed for completion. Grid-cell areas and locations are optimized to yield a smoothly varying area difference between adjacent cells, thereby maximizing numerical convergence. We compare our calculated results with measured data prior to the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan as reported by Hayakawa et. al. [3]. Acknowledgement This work was suggested by Dr. Masashi Hayakawa, University of Electro-Communications, Chofugaoka, Chofu Tokyo. References [1] A

  20. The Challenge of Centennial Earthquakes to Improve Modern Earthquake Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saragoni, G. Rodolfo

    2008-01-01

    The recent commemoration of the centennial of the San Francisco and Valparaiso 1906 earthquakes has given the opportunity to reanalyze their damages from modern earthquake engineering perspective. These two earthquakes plus Messina Reggio Calabria 1908 had a strong impact in the birth and developing of earthquake engineering. The study of the seismic performance of some up today existing buildings, that survive centennial earthquakes, represent a challenge to better understand the limitations of our in use earthquake design methods. Only Valparaiso 1906 earthquake, of the three considered centennial earthquakes, has been repeated again as the Central Chile, 1985, Ms = 7.8 earthquake. In this paper a comparative study of the damage produced by 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes is done in the neighborhood of Valparaiso harbor. In this study the only three centennial buildings of 3 stories that survived both earthquakes almost undamaged were identified. Since for 1985 earthquake accelerogram at El Almendral soil conditions as well as in rock were recoded, the vulnerability analysis of these building is done considering instrumental measurements of the demand. The study concludes that good performance of these buildings in the epicentral zone of large earthquakes can not be well explained by modern earthquake engineering methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use in the future of more suitable instrumental parameters, such as the destructiveness potential factor, to describe earthquake demand

  1. ANALYSIS OF REGULARITIES IN DISTRIBUTION OF EARTHQUAKES BY FOCAL DISPLACEMENT IN THE KURIL-OKHOTSK REGION BEFORE THE CATASTROPHIC SIMUSHIR EARTHQUAKE OF 15 NOVEMBER 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timofei K. Zlobin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The catastrophic Simushir earthquake occurred on 15 November 2006 in the Kuril-Okhotsk region in the Middle Kuril Islands which is a transition zone between the Eurasian continent and the Pacific Ocean. It was followed by numerous strong earthquakes. It is established that the catastrophic earthquake was prepared on a site characterized by increased relative effective pressures which is located at the border of the low-pressure area (Figure 1.Based on data from GlobalCMT (Harvard, earthquake focal mechanisms were reconstructed, and tectonic stresses, the seismotectonic setting and the earthquakes distribution pattern were studied for analysis of the field of stresses in the region before to the Simushir earthquake (Figures 2 and 3; Table 1.Five areas of various types of movement were determined. Three of them are stretched along the Kuril Islands. It is established that seismodislocations in earthquake focal areas are regularly distributed. In each of the determined areas, displacements of a specific type (shear or reverse shear are concentrated and give evidence of the alteration and change of zones characterized by horizontal stretching and compression.The presence of the horizontal stretching and compression zones can be explained by a model of subduction (Figure 4. Detailed studies of the state of stresses of the Kuril region confirm such zones (Figure 5. Recent GeodynamicsThe established specific features of tectonic stresses before the catastrophic Simushir earthquake of 15 November 2006 contribute to studies of earthquake forecasting problems. The state of stresses and the geodynamic conditions suggesting occurrence of new earthquakes can be assessed from the data on the distribution of horizontal compression, stretching and shear areas of the Earth’s crust and the upper mantle in the Kuril region.

  2. Satisfaction with economic and social rights and quality of life in a post-disaster zone in China: evidence from earthquake-prone Sichuan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Ying

    2015-04-01

    This study explored the influence of satisfaction with economic and social rights (ESR) on the quality of life (QOL) of people in post-disaster zones in Sichuan, China. Data from a survey conducted in 2013 in the 5 hardest hit counties in the earthquake-prone area of Sichuan were used. QOL was measured by use of the brief version of the World Health Organization Quality of Life questionnaire (WHOQOL-BREF). Structural equation models were developed to determine the specific features of the influence of satisfaction with ESR on QOL. The mean values of both the WHOQOL-BREF scale and the ESR satisfaction scale were lower than the midpoint of the scales. Satisfaction with ESR had a significant effect on psychological health, social relationships, and environment, apart from physical health. Satisfaction with the right to food had the greatest effect on QOL, followed by the rights to education, work, health, social security, and housing. Satisfaction with ESR had a significant positive influence on the QOL of people in a post-disaster zone, particularly satisfaction with the right to food. Policies on food and education guarantees and mental health intervention are highlighted.

  3. Crustal Structure of Active Deformation Zones in Africa: Implications for Global Crustal Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebinger, C. J.; Keir, D.; Bastow, I. D.; Whaler, K.; Hammond, J. O. S.; Ayele, A.; Miller, M. S.; Tiberi, C.; Hautot, S.

    2017-12-01

    The Cenozoic East African rift (EAR), Cameroon Volcanic Line (CVL), and Atlas Mountains formed on the slow-moving African continent, which last experienced orogeny during the Pan-African. We synthesize primarily geophysical data to evaluate the role of magmatism in shaping Africa's crust. In young magmatic rift zones, melt and volatiles migrate from the asthenosphere to gas-rich magma reservoirs at the Moho, altering crustal composition and reducing strength. Within the southernmost Eastern rift, the crust comprises 20% new magmatic material ponded in the lower crust and intruded as sills and dikes at shallower depths. In the Main Ethiopian Rift, intrusions comprise 30% of the crust below axial zones of dike-dominated extension. In the incipient rupture zones of the Afar rift, magma intrusions fed from crustal magma chambers beneath segment centers create new columns of mafic crust, as along slow-spreading ridges. Our comparisons suggest that transitional crust, including seaward dipping sequences, is created as progressively smaller screens of continental crust are heated and weakened by magma intrusion into 15-20 km thick crust. In the 30 Ma Recent CVL, which lacks a hot spot age progression, extensional forces are small, inhibiting the creation and rise of magma into the crust. In the Atlas orogen, localized magmatism follows the strike of the Atlas Mountains from the Canary Islands hot spot toward the Alboran Sea. CVL and Atlas magmatism has had minimal impact on crustal structure. Our syntheses show that magma and volatiles are migrating from the asthenosphere through the plates, modifying rheology, and contributing significantly to global carbon and water fluxes.

  4. Global peak flux profile of proton precipitation in the equatorial zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miah, M.A.

    1991-01-01

    Particle precipitation near the equator within ± 30deg geomagnetic latitude was investigated by the Phoenix-1 instrumentation on board the S81-1 mission. The monitor telescope on board the mission was sensitive to protons in the energy range 0.6-9.1 MeV, to alpha particles in the energy range 0.4-80 MeV/nucleon and Z→3 particles ( 12 C) of energy greater than 0.7 MeV/nucleon. The peak efficiency of the telescope was for particles of ∼88deg pitch angles at the line of minimum magnetic field. Careful separation of the magnetically quiet time equatorial particle data from global data coverage and subsequent analysis shows that the ML detector on board the mission detected mostly protons. The proton peak flux profile follows the line of minimum magnetic field. The full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the equatorial zone is ∼ 13deg, which is well within the EUV emission zone. (author). 14 refs., 9 figs

  5. Initial report on drilling into seismogenic zones of M2.0 - M5.5 earthquakes from deep South African gold mines (DSeis)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogasawara, Hiroshi; Durrheim, Raymond; Yabe, Yasuo; Ito, Takatoshi; van Aswegen, Gerrie; Grobbelaar, Michelle; Funato, Akio; Ishida, Akimasa; Ogasawara, Hiroyuki; Mngadi, Siyanda; Manzi, Musa; Ziegler, Martin; Ward, Tony; Moyer, Pamela; Boettcher, Margaret; Ellsworth, Bill; Liebenberg, Bennie; Wechsler, Neta; Onstott, Tullis; Berset, Nicolas

    2017-04-01

    The International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) approved our proposal (Ogasawara et al., EGU 2016) to drill into and around seismogenic zones where critically stressed faults initiated ruptures at depth. The drilling targets include four ruptures equivalent to M2.0, 2.8, 3.5, and 5.5 that dynamically and quasi-statically evolved in 2.9 Ga hard rock in the Witwatersrand basin, South Africa. Major advantages of our drilling locations are the large quantity and high-quality of existing data from dense seismic arrays both on surface and near-field underground in three deep South African gold mines. Additionally, the great depths (1.0 to 3.3 km from surface) to collar holes reduce drilling costs significantly and enable a larger number of holes to be drilled. Flexibility in drilling direction will also allow us to minimize damage in borehole or drilled cores. With the ICDP funds, we will conduct full-core drilling of 16 holes with drilling ranges from 50 to 750 m to recover both materials and fractures in and around the seismogenic zones, followed by core and borehole logging. Additional in-hole monitoring at close proximity will be supported by co-mingled funds and will follow the ICDP drilling. Expected magnitudes of maximum shear stress are several tens of MPa. We have established an overcoring procedure to measure 3D-stress state for adverse underground working conditions so as not to interfere with mining operations. This procedure was optimized based on the Compact Conic-ended Borehole Overcoring (CCBO) technique (ISRM suggested; Sugawara and Obara, 1999). Funato and Ito (2016 IJRMMS) developed a diametrical core deformation analysis (DCDA) method to measure differential stress using only drilled core by assuming diametrical change with roll angles caused by elastic in-axisymmetrical expansion during drilling. A gold mine has already drilled a hole to intersect the hypocenter of a 2016 M3.5 earthquake and carried out the CCBO stress measurement in

  6. Impact of global warming on the geobotanic zones: an experiment with a statistical-dynamical climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franchito, Sergio H.; Brahmananda Rao, V. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Centro de Ciencia do Sistema Terrestre, CCST, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil); Moraes, E.C. [Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Divisao de Sensoriamento Remoto, DSR, Sau Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-11-15

    In this study, a zonally-averaged statistical climate model (SDM) is used to investigate the impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe. The model includes a parameterization of the biogeophysical feedback mechanism that links the state of surface to the atmosphere (a bidirectional interaction between vegetation and climate). In the control experiment (simulation of the present-day climate) the geobotanic state is well simulated by the model, so that the distribution of the geobotanic zones over the globe shows a very good agreement with the observed ones. The impact of global warming on the distribution of the geobotanic zones is investigated considering the increase of CO{sub 2} concentration for the B1, A2 and A1FI scenarios. The results showed that the geobotanic zones over the entire earth can be modified in future due to global warming. Expansion of subtropical desert and semi-desert zones in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, retreat of glaciers and sea-ice, with the Arctic region being particularly affected and a reduction of the tropical rainforest and boreal forest can occur due to the increase of the greenhouse gases concentration. The effects were more pronounced in the A1FI and A2 scenarios compared with the B1 scenario. The SDM results confirm IPCC AR4 projections of future climate and are consistent with simulations of more complex GCMs, reinforcing the necessity of the mitigation of climate change associated to global warming. (orig.)

  7. Global Compilation of InSAR Earthquake Source Models: Comparisons with Seismic Catalogues and the Effects of 3D Earth Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weston, J. M.; Ferreira, A. M.; Funning, G. J.

    2010-12-01

    While past progress in seismology led to extensive earthquake catalogues such as the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogue, recent advances in space geodesy have enabled earthquake parameter estimations from the measurement of the deformation of the Earth’s surface, notably using InSAR data. Many earthquakes have now been studied using InSAR, but a full assessment of the quality and of the additional value of these source parameters compared to traditional seismological techniques is still lacking. In this study we present results of systematic comparisons between earthquake CMT parameters determined using InSAR and seismic data, on a global scale. We compiled a large database of source parameters obtained using InSAR data from the literature and estimated the corresponding CMT parameters into a ICMT compilation. We here present results from the analysis of 58 earthquakes that occurred between 1992-2007 from about 80 published InSAR studies. Multiple studies of the same earthquake are included in the archive, as they are valuable to assess uncertainties. Where faults are segmented, with changes in width along-strike, a weighted average based on the seismic moment in each fault has been used to determine overall earthquake parameters. For variable slip models, we have calculated source parameters taking the spatial distribution of slip into account. The parameters in our ICMT compilation are compared with those taken from the Global CMT (GCMT), ISC, EHB and NEIC catalogues. We find that earthquake fault strike, dip and rake values in the GCMT and ICMT archives are generally compatible with each other. Likewise, the differences in seismic moment in these two archives are relatively small. However, the locations of the centroid epicentres show substantial discrepancies, which are larger when comparing with GCMT locations (10-30km differences) than for EHB, ISC and NEIC locations (5-15km differences). Since InSAR data have a high spatial resolution, and thus

  8. Earthquake Monitoring with the MyShake Global Smartphone Seismic Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inbal, A.; Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Savran, W. H.

    2017-12-01

    Smartphone arrays have the potential for significantly improving seismic monitoring in sparsely instrumented urban areas. This approach benefits from the dense spatial coverage of users, as well as from communication and computational capabilities built into smartphones, which facilitate big seismic data transfer and analysis. Advantages in data acquisition with smartphones trade-off with factors such as the low-quality sensors installed in phones, high noise levels, and strong network heterogeneity, all of which limit effective seismic monitoring. Here we utilize network and array-processing schemes to asses event detectability with the MyShake global smartphone network. We examine the benefits of using this network in either triggered or continuous modes of operation. A global database of ground motions measured on stationary phones triggered by M2-6 events is used to establish detection probabilities. We find that the probability of detecting an M=3 event with a single phone located 20 nearby phones closely match the regional catalog locations. We use simulated broadband seismic data to examine how location uncertainties vary with user distribution and noise levels. To this end, we have developed an empirical noise model for the metropolitan Los-Angeles (LA) area. We find that densities larger than 100 stationary phones/km2 are required to accurately locate M 2 events in the LA basin. Given the projected MyShake user distribution, that condition may be met within the next few years.

  9. A test of a global seismic system for monitoring earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowman, J.R.; Muirhead, K.; Spiliopoulos, S.; Jepsen, D.; Leonard, M.

    1993-01-01

    Australia is a member of the Group of Scientific Experts (GSE) to consider international cooperative measures to detect and identify events, an ad hoc group of the United Nations Conference on Disarmament. The GSE conducted a large-scale technical test (GSETT-2) from 22 April to 9 June 1991 that focused on the exchange and analysis of seismic parameter and waveform data. Thirty-four countries participated in GSETT-2, and data were contributed from 60 stations on all continents. GSETT-2 demonstrated the feasibility of collecting and transmitting large volumes (around 1 giga-byte) of digital data around the world, and of producing a preliminary bulletin of global seismicity within 48 hours and a final bulletin within 7 days. However, the experiment also revealed the difficulty of keeping up with the flow of data and analysis with existing resources. The Final Event Bulletins listed 3715 events for the 42 recording days of the test, about twice the number reported routinely by another international agency 5 months later. The quality of the Final Event Bulletin was limited by the uneven spatial distribution of seismic stations that contributed to GSETT-2 and by the ambiguity of associating phases detected by widely separated stations to form seismic events. A monitoring system similar to that used in GSETT-2 could provide timely and accurate reporting of global seismicity. It would need an improved distribution of stations, application of more conservative event formation rules and further development of analysis software. 8 refs., 9 figs

  10. Dynamic strains for earthquake source characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbour, Andrew J.; Crowell, Brendan W

    2017-01-01

    Strainmeters measure elastodynamic deformation associated with earthquakes over a broad frequency band, with detection characteristics that complement traditional instrumentation, but they are commonly used to study slow transient deformation along active faults and at subduction zones, for example. Here, we analyze dynamic strains at Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) borehole strainmeters (BSM) associated with 146 local and regional earthquakes from 2004–2014, with magnitudes from M 4.5 to 7.2. We find that peak values in seismic strain can be predicted from a general regression against distance and magnitude, with improvements in accuracy gained by accounting for biases associated with site–station effects and source–path effects, the latter exhibiting the strongest influence on the regression coefficients. To account for the influence of these biases in a general way, we include crustal‐type classifications from the CRUST1.0 global velocity model, which demonstrates that high‐frequency strain data from the PBO BSM network carry information on crustal structure and fault mechanics: earthquakes nucleating offshore on the Blanco fracture zone, for example, generate consistently lower dynamic strains than earthquakes around the Sierra Nevada microplate and in the Salton trough. Finally, we test our dynamic strain prediction equations on the 2011 M 9 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake, specifically continuous strain records derived from triangulation of 137 high‐rate Global Navigation Satellite System Earth Observation Network stations in Japan. Moment magnitudes inferred from these data and the strain model are in agreement when Global Positioning System subnetworks are unaffected by spatial aliasing.

  11. Global teaching of global seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S.; Wysession, M.

    2005-12-01

    Our recent textbook, Introduction to Seismology, Earthquakes, & Earth Structure (Blackwell, 2003) is used in many countries. Part of the reason for this may be our deliberate attempt to write the book for an international audience. This effort appears in several ways. We stress seismology's long tradition of global data interchange. Our brief discussions of the science's history illustrate the contributions of scientists around the world. Perhaps most importantly, our discussions of earthquakes, tectonics, and seismic hazards take a global view. Many examples are from North America, whereas others are from other areas. Our view is that non-North American students should be exposed to North American examples that are type examples, and that North American students should be similarly exposed to examples elsewhere. For example, we illustrate how the Euler vector geometry changes a plate boundary from spreading, to strike-slip, to convergence using both the Pacific-North America boundary from the Gulf of California to Alaska and the Eurasia-Africa boundary from the Azores to the Mediterranean. We illustrate diffuse plate boundary zones using western North America, the Andes, the Himalayas, the Mediterranean, and the East Africa Rift. The subduction zone discussions examine Japan, Tonga, and Chile. We discuss significant earthquakes both in the U.S. and elsewhere, and explore hazard mitigation issues in different contexts. Both comments from foreign colleagues and our experience lecturing overseas indicate that this approach works well. Beyond the specifics of our text, we believe that such a global approach is facilitated by the international traditions of the earth sciences and the world youth culture that gives students worldwide common culture. For example, a video of the scene in New Madrid, Missouri that arose from a nonsensical earthquake prediction in 1990 elicits similar responses from American and European students.

  12. Late Holocene earthquake history of the Brigham City segment of the Wasatch fault zone at the Hansen Canyon, Kotter Canyon, and Pearsons Canyon trench sites, Box Elder County, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    DuRoss, Christopher B.; Personius, Stephen F.; Crone, Anthony J.; McDonald, Greg N.; Briggs, Richard W.

    2012-01-01

    Of the five central segments of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) having evidence of recurrent Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes, the Brigham City segment (BCS) has the longest elapsed time since its most recent surface-faulting event (~2.1 kyr) compared to its mean recurrence time between events (~1.3 kyr). Thus, the BCS has the highest time-dependent earthquake probability of the central WFZ. We excavated trenches at three sites––the Kotter Canyon and Hansen Canyon sites on the north-central BCS and Pearsons Canyon site on the southern BCS––to determine whether a surface-faulting earthquake younger than 2.1 ka occurred on the BCS. Paleoseismic data for Hansen Canyon and Kotter Canyon confirm that the youngest earthquake on the north-central BCS occurred before 2 ka, consistent with previous north-central BCS investigations at Bowden Canyon and Box Elder Canyon. At Hansen Canyon, the most recent earthquake is constrained to 2.1–4.2 ka and had 0.6–2.5 m of vertical displacement. At Kotter Canyon, we found evidence for two events at 2.5 ± 0.3 ka and 3.5 ± 0.3 ka, with an average displacement per event of 1.9–2.3 m. Paleoseismic data from Pearsons Canyon, on the previously unstudied southern BCS, indicate that a post-2 ka earthquake ruptured this part of the segment. The Pearsons Canyon earthquake occurred at 1.2 ± 0.04 ka and had 0.1–0.8 m of vertical displacement, consistent with our observation of continuous, youthful scarps on the southern 9 km of the BCS having 1–2 m of late Holocene(?) surface offset. The 1.2-ka earthquake on the southern BCS likely represents rupture across the Weber–Brigham City segment boundary from the penultimate Weber-segment earthquake at about 1.1 ka. The Pearsons Canyon data result in a revised length of the BCS that has not ruptured since 2 ka (with time-dependent probability implications), and provide compelling evidence of at least one segment-boundary failure and multi-segment rupture on the central WFZ. Our

  13. Impact of global warming on performance of ground source heat pumps in US climate zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen, Pengyuan; Lukes, Jennifer R.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Used morphing method to have downscaled hourly local weather data from GCM. • Selected representative cities in different climate zones in the US for case study on GSHP performance. • Used hourly building simulation tools (eQuest and TRNSYS) to project GSHP performance in future. • Analysis on GSHP performance in 2050 for both residential and office building in the US are conducted. - Abstract: Ground source heat pumps (GSHP) have attracted increasing attention because of their high energy efficiencies. The aim of this paper is to study the performance of (GSHP) in future climate conditions (2040–2069) by using projected future hourly weather data of selected representative cities in the US to estimate future ground temperature change. The projected hourly weather data and estimated ground temperatures are input to an hourly simulation tool (TRNSYS and eQuest for this research), which provides reliable coupling of GSHP system and building performance. The simulation results show that global warming will decrease the energy efficiency of GSHP in US residential buildings because a rise in inlet and outlet water temperature is predicted for GSHP systems during the cooling season and because buildings will become more cooling dominated in the future. For office buildings, although the cooling performance of GSHP will not drop significantly under future climate, the overall energy efficiency for the system will decrease due to the increasing energy consumption of the ground loop pump. In the future, considering the significant ground heat imbalance for GSHP operation, GSHP will become less competitive both economically and technically than it is now in the context of US climate zones

  14. TOWARDS CONSISTENT MAPPING OF URBAN STRUCTURES – GLOBAL HUMAN SETTLEMENT LAYER AND LOCAL CLIMATE ZONES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Bechtel

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Although more than half of the Earth’s population live in urban areas, we know remarkably little about most cities and what we do know is incomplete (lack of coverage and inconsistent (varying definitions and scale. While there have been considerable advances in the derivation of a global urban mask using satellite information, the complexity of urban structures, the heterogeneity of materials, and the multiplicity of spectral properties have impeded the derivation of universal urban structural types (UST. Further, the variety of UST typologies severely limits the comparability of such studies and although a common and generic description of urban structures is an essential requirement for the universal mapping of urban structures, such a standard scheme is still lacking. More recently, there have been two developments in urban mapping that have the potential for providing a standard approach: the Local Climate Zone (LCZ scheme (used by the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools project and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL methodology by JRC. In this paper the LCZ scheme and the GHSL LABEL product were compared for selected cities. The comparison between both datasets revealed a good agreement at city and coarse scale, while the contingency at pixel scale was limited due to the mismatch in grid resolution and typology. At a 1 km scale, built-up as well as open and compact classes showed very good agreement in terms of correlation coefficient and mean absolute distance, spatial pattern, and radial distribution as a function of distance from town, which indicates that a decomposition relevant for modelling applications could be derived from both. On the other hand, specific problems were found for both datasets, which are discussed along with their general advantages and disadvantages as a standard for UST classification in urban remote sensing.

  15. High-resolution chronology of sediment below CCD based on Holocene paleomagnetic secular variations in the Tohoku-oki earthquake rupture zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamatsu, Toshiya; Usami, Kazuko; McHugh, Cecilia M. G.; Ikehara, Ken

    2017-08-01

    Using high-resolution paleomagnetic data, we examined the potential for obtaining precise ages from sediment core samples recovered from deep-sea basins close to rupture zones of the 2011 and earlier earthquakes off Tohoku, Japan. Obtaining detailed stratigraphic ages from deep-sea sediments below the calcium compensation depth (CCD) is difficult, but we found that the samples contain excellent paleomagnetic secular variation records to constrain age models. Variations in paleomagnetic directions obtained from the sediments reveal systematic changes in the cores. A stacked paleomagnetic profile closely matches the Lake Biwa data sets in southwest Japan for the past 7000 years, one can establish age models based on secular variations of the geomagnetic field on sediments recovered uniquely below the CCD. Comparison of paleomagnetic directions near a tephra and a paleomagnetic direction of contemporaneous pyroclastic flow deposits acquired by different magnetization processes shows precise depositional ages reflecting the magnetization delay of the marine sediment record.Plain Language SummaryGenerally obtaining detailed ages from deep-sea sediments is difficult, because available dating method is very limited. We found that the deep-see sediment off North Japan recorded past sequential geomagnetic directions. If those records correlate well with the reference record in past 7000 years, then we could estimate age of sediment by pattern matching. Additionally a volcanic ash emitted in 915 A.D., which was intercalated in our samples, indicates a time lag in our age model. This observation makes our age model more precise.

  16. Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Economic losses and costs from 1900-2014: 115 years of the CATDAT database - Trends, Normalisation and Visualisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Skapski, Jens-Udo; Vervaeck, Armand; Wenzel, Friedemann; Schaefer, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    tolls from historic events is discussed. The CATDAT socioeconomic databases of parameters like disaggregated population, GDP, capital stock, building typologies, food security and inter-country export interactions are used to create a current exposure view of the world. The potential for losses globally is discussed with a re-creation of each damaging event since 1900, with well in excess of 10 trillion USD in normalised losses being seen from the 115 years of events. Potential worst case events for volcano and earthquake around the globe are discussed in terms of their potential for damage and huge economic loss today, and over the next century using SSP projections adjusted over a country basis including inter-country effects.

  17. Defeating Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

  18. Global shear speed structure of the upper mantle and transition zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaeffer, A. J.; Lebedev, S.

    2013-07-01

    The rapid expansion of broad-band seismic networks over the last decade has paved the way for a new generation of global tomographic models. Significantly improved resolution of global upper-mantle and crustal structure can now be achieved, provided that structural information is extracted effectively from both surface and body waves and that the effects of errors in the data are controlled and minimized. Here, we present a new global, vertically polarized shear speed model that yields considerable improvements in resolution, compared to previous ones, for a variety of features in the upper mantle and crust. The model, SL2013sv, is constrained by an unprecedentedly large set of waveform fits (˜3/4 of a million broad-band seismograms), computed in seismogram-dependent frequency bands, up to a maximum period range of 11-450 s. Automated multimode inversion of surface and S-wave forms was used to extract a set of linear equations with uncorrelated uncertainties from each seismogram. The equations described perturbations in elastic structure within approximate sensitivity volumes between sources and receivers. Going beyond ray theory, we calculated the phase of every mode at every frequency and its derivative with respect to S- and P-velocity perturbations by integration over a sensitivity area in a 3-D reference model; the (normally small) perturbations of the 3-D model required to fit the waveforms were then linearized using these accurate derivatives. The equations yielded by the waveform inversion of all the seismograms were simultaneously inverted for a 3-D model of shear and compressional speeds and azimuthal anisotropy within the crust and upper mantle. Elaborate outlier analysis was used to control the propagation of errors in the data (source parameters, timing at the stations, etc.). The selection of only the most mutually consistent equations exploited the data redundancy provided by our data set and strongly reduced the effect of the errors, increasing the

  19. Foreshock occurrence rates before large earthquakes worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reasenberg, P.A.

    1999-01-01

    Global rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured, using earthquakes listed in the Harvard CMT catalog for the period 1978-1996. These rates are similar to rates ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering, which is based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California, and were found to exceed the California model by a factor of approximately 2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, registered a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, measured a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have revealed low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggest the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich.

  20. Areas prone to slow slip events impede earthquake rupture propagation and promote afterslip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolandone, Frederique; Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu; Mothes, Patricia A.; Jarrin, Paul; Vallée, Martin; Cubas, Nadaya; Hernandez, Stephen; Plain, Morgan; Vaca, Sandro; Font, Yvonne

    2018-01-01

    At subduction zones, transient aseismic slip occurs either as afterslip following a large earthquake or as episodic slow slip events during the interseismic period. Afterslip and slow slip events are usually considered as distinct processes occurring on separate fault areas governed by different frictional properties. Continuous GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements following the 2016 Mw (moment magnitude) 7.8 Ecuador earthquake reveal that large and rapid afterslip developed at discrete areas of the megathrust that had previously hosted slow slip events. Regardless of whether they were locked or not before the earthquake, these areas appear to persistently release stress by aseismic slip throughout the earthquake cycle and outline the seismic rupture, an observation potentially leading to a better anticipation of future large earthquakes. PMID:29404404

  1. A model of the solar cycle driven by the dynamo action of the global convection in the solar convection zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshimura, H.

    1976-01-01

    Extensive numerical studies of the dynamo equations due to the global convection are presented to simulate the solar cycle and to open the way to study general stellar magnetic cycles. The dynamo equations which represent the longitudinally-averaged magnetohydrodynamical action (mean magnetohydrodynamics) of the global convection under the influence of the rotation in the solar convection zone are considered here as an initial boundary-value problem. The latitudinal and radial structure of the dynamo action consisting of a generation action due to the differential rotation and a regeneration action due to the global convection is parameterized in accordance with the structure of the rotation and of the global convection. This is done especially in such a way as to represent the presence of the two cells of the regeneration action in the radial direction in which the action has opposite signs, which is typical of the regeneration action of the global convection. The effects of the dynamics of the global convection (e.g., the effects of the stratification of the physical conditions in the solar convection zone) are presumed to be all included in those parameters used in the model and they are presumed not to alter the results drastically since these effects are only to change the structure of the regeneration action topologically. (Auth.)

  2. Reaching the global community during disasters: findings from a content analysis of the organizational use of Twitter after the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurman, Tilly A; Ellenberger, Nicole

    2015-01-01

    Social networking sites provide virtual environments in which individuals and organizations exchange real-time information on a multitude of topics, including health promotion and disease prevention. The January 2010 earthquake in Haiti has been posited as a turning point in the way in which organizations use social media, such as Twitter, for crisis communication. The purpose of this content analysis was to explore whether organizations' use of Twitter changed after the 2010 Haiti earthquake. A team of 13 coders analyzed all English-language tweets (N = 2,616) during the 3 months before and post earthquake from 6 leading organizations in the Haiti disaster relief efforts. Study findings indicate that the ways in which organizations used Twitter changed over time. Chi-square analyses demonstrated that organizations decreased in their use of certain strategies to disseminate information through Twitter, such as the use of links. Organizations did not change in their use of techniques to involve users (e.g., retweet, call to action), with the exception of using tweets as a fundraising mechanism. Study findings highlight missed opportunities among organizations to maximize Twitter in order to encourage more interactive and immediate communication with the global community.

  3. Source Parameter Inversion for Recent Great Earthquakes from a Decade-long Observation of Global Gravity Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shin-Chan; Riva, Ricccardo; Sauber, Jeanne; Okal, Emile

    2013-01-01

    We quantify gravity changes after great earthquakes present within the 10 year long time series of monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity fields. Using spherical harmonic normal-mode formulation, the respective source parameters of moment tensor and double-couple were estimated. For the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, the gravity data indicate a composite moment of 1.2x10(exp 23)Nm with a dip of 10deg, in agreement with the estimate obtained at ultralong seismic periods. For the 2010 Maule earthquake, the GRACE solutions range from 2.0 to 2.7x10(exp 22)Nm for dips of 12deg-24deg and centroid depths within the lower crust. For the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, the estimated scalar moments range from 4.1 to 6.1x10(exp 22)Nm, with dips of 9deg-19deg and centroid depths within the lower crust. For the 2012 Indian Ocean strike-slip earthquakes, the gravity data delineate a composite moment of 1.9x10(exp 22)Nm regardless of the centroid depth, comparing favorably with the total moment of the main ruptures and aftershocks. The smallest event we successfully analyzed with GRACE was the 2007 Bengkulu earthquake with M(sub 0) approx. 5.0x10(exp 21)Nm. We found that the gravity data constrain the focal mechanism with the centroid only within the upper and lower crustal layers for thrust events. Deeper sources (i.e., in the upper mantle) could not reproduce the gravity observation as the larger rigidity and bulk modulus at mantle depths inhibit the interior from changing its volume, thus reducing the negative gravity component. Focal mechanisms and seismic moments obtained in this study represent the behavior of the sources on temporal and spatial scales exceeding the seismic and geodetic spectrum.

  4. Source characteristics of moderate size events using empirical Green funclions: an application to some Guerrero (Mexico subduction zone earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. K. Singh

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available The records of an aftershock (M ~ 4 of a moderate size event (M = 5.9 which occurred along the subduction zone of Guerrero (Mexico, are used as empirical Green functions (EGF to determine the source characteristics of the mainshock and of its smaller size (M = 5.5 foreshock. The data consist of accelerograms recorded by the Guerrero Accelerograph Array, a high dynamic range strong motion array. The three events appear to be located close to each other at distances much smaller than the source to receiver distances. The fault mechanism of the mainshock is computed by non-linear inversion of P polarity readings and S wave polarizations determined at two near source stations. The foreshock and aftershock fault mechanisms are similar to that of the mainshock as inferred from long period data and shear wave polarization analysis. The maximum likelihood solution is well constrained, indicating a typical shallow dipping thrust fault mechanism, with the P-axis approximately oriented in a SSW direction. The source time functions (STFs of the mainshock and foreshock events are determined using a new method of deconvolution of the EGF records at three strong motion sites. In this method the STF of the large event is approximated by a superposition of pseudo triangular pulses whose parameters are determined by a non-linear inversion in frequency domain. The source time function of the mainshock shows the presence of two separate pulses, which can be related to multiple rupture episodes. The relative location of mainshock sub-events is done by using plots of isochrones computed from measurementes of the time delay between pulses on the STF records at each station. The first sub-event is located no more than 2.5-3 km away from the other along the fault strike. The STF retrieved from foreshock records shows single pulse waveforms. The computed STFs are used to estimate seismic moments, source radii and stress release of the events assuming a circular fault

  5. Seafloor Geodesy usi­ng Wave Gliders to study Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards at Subduction Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathiakumar, S.; Barbot, S.; Hill, E.; Peng, D.; Zerucha, J.; Suhaimee, S.; Chia, G.; Salamena, G. G.; Syahailatua, A.

    2016-12-01

    Land-based GNSS networks are now in place to monitor most subduction zones of the world. These provide valuable information about the amount of­ geodetic strain accumulated in the region, which in turn gives insight into the seismic potential. However, it is usually impossible to resolve activity on the megathrust near the trench using land-based GNSS data alone, given typical signal-to-noise ratios. Ship-based seafloor geodesy is being used today to fill this observation gap. However, surveys using ships are very expensive, tedious and impractical due to the large areas to be covered. Instead of discrete missions using ships, continuous monitoring of the seafloor using autonomous marine robots would aid in understanding the tectonic setting of the seafloor better at a potentially lower cost, as well as help in designing better warning systems. Thus, we are developing seafloor geodesy capabilities using Wave Gliders, a new class of wave-propelled, persistent marine autonomous vehicle using a combination of acoustic and GNSS technologies. We use GNSS/INS to position the platform, and acoustic ranging to locate the seafloor. The GNSS/INS system to be integrated with the Wave Gliders has stringent requirements of low power, light weight, and high accuracy. All these factors are equally important due to limited power and space in the Wave Gliders and the need for highly accurate and precise measurements. With this hardware setup, a limiting factor is the accuracy of measurement of the sound velocity in the water column. We plan to obtain precise positioning of seafloor by exploring a measurement setup that minimizes uncertainties in sound velocity. This will be achieved by making fine-resolution measurements of the two-way travel time of the acoustic waves underwater using the Wave Gliders, and performing statistical signal processing on this data to obtain more reliable sound velocity measurement. This enhanced seafloor geodetic technique using Wave Gliders should

  6. Rivers of the Andes and the Amazon Basin: Deciphering global change from the hydroclimatic variability in the critical zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira-Turcq, Patricia; Carlo Espinoza, Jhan; Filizola, Naziano; Martinez, Jean-Michel

    2018-01-01

    The Critical Zone has been defined as the thin layer of the continental surfaces extending from fresh bedrock and the bottom of groundwater up to vegetation canopy, where soil, rock, water, air, and living organisms interact (Banwart et al., 2012; Lin et al., 2011). Despite the Critical Zone's importance to terrestrial life, it remains poorly understood. In this context, understanding the complex interactions between physical, chemical, and biological processes of the Critical Zone requires long-term observations (Anderson et al., 2012; Brantley et al., 2017), not only because different mechanisms have varying time frames, but also because it is necessary to monitor its natural and anthropogenic evolution in response to global climate and environmental changes.

  7. Earthquakes Threaten Many American Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Nancy E.

    2010-01-01

    Millions of U.S. children attend schools that are not safe from earthquakes, even though they are in earthquake-prone zones. Several cities and states have worked to identify and repair unsafe buildings, but many others have done little or nothing to fix the problem. The reasons for ignoring the problem include political and financial ones, but…

  8. Far-field triggering of foreshocks near the nucleation zone of the 5 September 2012 (MW 7.6) Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Jacob I.; Meng, Xiaofeng; Peng, Zhigang; Schwartz, Susan Y.; Newman, Andrew V.; Protti, Marino

    2015-12-01

    On 5 September 2012, a moment magnitude (MW) 7.6 earthquake occurred directly beneath the Nicoya Peninsula, an area with dense seismic and geodetic network coverage. The mainshock ruptured a portion of a previously identified locked patch that was recognized due to a decade-long effort to delineate the megathrust seismic and aseismic processes in this area. Here we conduct a comprehensive study of the seismicity prior to this event utilizing a matched-filter analysis that allows us to decrease the magnitude of catalog completeness by 1 unit. We observe a statistically significant increase in seismicity rate below the Nicoya Peninsula following the 27 August 2012 (MW 7.3) El Salvador earthquake (about 450 km to the northwest and 9 days prior to the Nicoya earthquake). Additionally, we identify a cluster of small-magnitude (earthquakes preceding the mainshock by about 35 min and within 15 km of its hypocenter. The immediate foreshock sequence occurred in the same area as those earthquakes triggered shortly after the El Salvador event; though it is not clear whether the effect of triggering from the El Salvador event persisted until the foreshock sequence given the uncertainties in seismicity rates from a relatively small number of earthquakes. If megathrust earthquakes at such distances can induce significant increases in seismicity during the days before another larger event, this sequence strengthens the need for real-time seismicity monitoring for large earthquake forecasting.

  9. H2O and CO2 devolatilization in subduction zones: implications for the global water and carbon cycles (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Keken, P. E.; Hacker, B. R.; Syracuse, E. M.; Abers, G. A.

    2010-12-01

    Subduction of sediments and altered oceanic crust functions as a major carbon sink. Upon subduction the carbon may be released by progressive metamorphic reactions, which can be strongly enhanced by free fluids. Quantification of the CO2 release from subducting slabs is important to determine the provenance of CO2 that is released by the volcanic arc and to constrain the flux of carbon to the deeper mantle. In recent work we used a global set of high resolution thermal models of subduction zones to predict the flux of H2O from the subducting slab (van Keken, Hacker, Syracuse, Abers, Subduction factory 4: Depth-dependent flux of H2O from subducting slabs worldwide, J. Geophys. Res., under review) which provides a new estimate of the dehydration efficiency of the global subducting system. It was found that mineralogically bound water can pass efficiently through old and fast subduction zones (such as in the western Pacific) but that warm subduction zones (such as Cascadia) see nearly complete dehydration of the subducting slab. The top of the slab is sufficiently hot in all subduction zones that the upper crust dehydrates significantly. The degree and depth of dehydration is highly diverse and strongly depends on (p,T) and bulk rock composition. On average about one third of subducted H2O reaches 240 km depth, carried principally and roughly equally in the gabbro and peridotite sections. The present-day global flux of H2O to the deep mantle translates to an addition of about one ocean mass over the age of the Earth. We extend the slab devolatilization work to carbon by providing an update to Gorman et al. (Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst, 2006), who quantified the effects of free fluids on CO2 release. The thermal conditions were based on three end-member subduction zones with linear interpolation to provide a global CO2 flux. We use the new high resolution and global set of models to provide higher resolution predictions for the provenance and pathways of CO2 release to

  10. Imaging the 2017 MW 8.2 Tehuantepec intermediate-depth earthquake using Teleseismic P Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brudzinski, M.; Zhang, H.; Koper, K. D.; Pankow, K. L.

    2017-12-01

    The September 8, 2017 MW 8.1 Tehuantepec, Mexico earthquakes in the middle American subduction zone is one of the largest intermediate-depth earthquake ever recorded and could provide an unprecedented opportunity for understanding the mechanism of intermediate-depth earthquakes. While the hypocenter and centroid depths for this earthquake are shallower than typically considered for intermediate depth earthquakes, the normal faulting mechanism consistent with down-dip extension and location within the subducting plate align with properties of intermediate depth earthquakes. Back-projection of high-frequency teleseismic P-waves from two regional arrays for this earthquake shows unilateral rupture on a southeast-northwest striking fault that extends north of the Tehuantepec fracture zone (TFZ), with an average horizontal rupture speed of 3.0 km/s and total duration of 60 s. Guided by these back-projection results, 47 globally distributed low-frequency P-waves were inverted for a finite-fault model (FFM) of slip for both nodal planes. The FFM shows a slip deficit in proximity to the extension of the TFZ, as well as the minor rupture beyond the TFZ (confirmed by the synthetic tests), which indicates that the TFZ acted as a barrier for this earthquake. Analysis of waveform misfit leads to the preference of a subvertical plane as the causative fault. The FFM shows that the majority of the rupture is above the focal depth and consists of two large slip patches: the first one is near the hypocenter ( 55 km depth) and the second larger one near 30 km depth. The distribution of the two patches spatially agrees with seismicity that defines the upper and lower zones of a double Benioff zone (DBZ). It appears there was single fault rupture across the two depth zones of the DBZ. This is uncommon because a stark aseismic zone is typically observed between the upper and lower zones of the DBZ. This finding indicates that the mechanism for intraslab earthquakes must allow for

  11. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment based on the long-term evaluation of subduction-zone earthquakes along the Sagami Trough, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Ohsumi, T.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Maeda, T.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murata, Y.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.; Hakamata, T.

    2017-12-01

    For the forthcoming large earthquakes along the Sagami Trough where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting beneath the northeast Japan arc, the Earthquake Research Committee(ERC) /Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Japanese government (2014a) assessed that M7 and M8 class earthquakes will occur there and defined the possible extent of the earthquake source areas. They assessed 70% and 0% 5% of the occurrence probability within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2014), respectively, for the M7 and M8 class earthquakes. First, we set possible 10 earthquake source areas(ESAs) and 920 ESAs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes. Next, we constructed 125 characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) and 938 CEFMs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes, based on "tsunami receipt" of ERC (2017) (Kitoh et al., 2016, JpGU). All the CEFMs are allowed to have a large slip area for expression of fault slip heterogeneity. For all the CEFMs, we calculate tsunamis by solving a nonlinear long wave equation, using FDM, including runup calculation, over a nesting grid system with a minimum grid size of 50 meters. Finally, we re-distributed the occurrence probability to all CEFMs (Abe et al., 2014, JpGU) and gathered excess probabilities for variable tsunami heights, calculated from all the CEFMs, at every observation point along Pacific coast to get PTHA. We incorporated aleatory uncertainties inherent in tsunami calculation and earthquake fault slip heterogeneity. We considered two kinds of probabilistic hazard models; one is "Present-time hazard model" under an assumption that the earthquake occurrence basically follows a renewal process based on BPT distribution if the latest faulting time was known. The other is "Long-time averaged hazard model" under an assumption that earthquake occurrence follows a stationary Poisson process. We fixed our viewpoint, for example, on the probability that the tsunami height will exceed 3 meters at coastal points in next

  12. Auroral Electrojet (AE, AL, AO, AU) - A Global Measure of Auroral Zone Magnetic Activity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The AE index is derived from geomagnetic variations in the horizontal component observed at selected (10-13) observatories along the auroral zone in the northern...

  13. The economic costs of natural disasters globally from 1900-2015: historical and normalised floods, storms, earthquakes, volcanoes, bushfires, drought and other disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann; Schaefer, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    For the first time, a breakdown of natural disaster losses from 1900-2015 based on over 30,000 event economic losses globally is given based on increased analysis within the CATDAT Damaging Natural Disaster databases. Using country-CPI and GDP deflator adjustments, over 7 trillion (2015-adjusted) in losses have occurred; over 40% due to flood/rainfall, 26% due to earthquake, 19% due to storm effects, 12% due to drought, 2% due to wildfire and under 1% due to volcano. Using construction cost indices, higher percentages of flood losses are seen. Depending on how the adjustment of dollars are made to 2015 terms (CPI vs. construction cost indices), between 6.5 and 14.0 trillion USD (2015-adjusted) of natural disaster losses have been seen from 1900-2015 globally. Significant reductions in economic losses have been seen in China and Japan from 1950 onwards. An AAL of around 200 billion in the last 16 years has been seen equating to around 0.25% of Global GDP or around 0.1% of Net Capital Stock per year. Normalised losses have also been calculated to examine the trends in vulnerability through time for economic losses. The normalisation methodology globally using the exposure databases within CATDAT that were undertaken previously in papers for the earthquake and volcano databases, are used for this study. The original event year losses are adjusted directly by capital stock change, very high losses are observed with respect to floods over time (however with improved flood control structures). This shows clear trends in the improvement of building stock towards natural disasters and a decreasing trend in most perils for most countries.

  14. Iranian earthquakes, a uniform catalog with moment magnitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimiparidari, Sepideh; Zaré, Mehdi; Memarian, Hossein; Kijko, Andrzej

    2013-07-01

    A uniform earthquake catalog is an essential tool in any seismic hazard analysis. In this study, an earthquake catalog of Iran and adjacent areas was compiled, using international and national databanks. The following priorities were applied in selecting magnitude and earthquake location: (a) local catalogs were given higher priority for establishing the location of an earthquake and (b) global catalogs were preferred for determining earthquake magnitudes. Earthquakes that have occurred within the bounds between 23-42° N and 42-65° E, with a magnitude range of M W 3.5-7.9, from the third millennium BC until April 2010 were included. In an effort to avoid the "boundary effect," since the newly compiled catalog will be mainly used for seismic hazard assessment, the study area includes the areas adjacent to Iran. The standardization of the catalog in terms of magnitude was achieved by the conversion of all types of magnitude into moment magnitude, M W, by using the orthogonal regression technique. In the newly compiled catalog, all aftershocks were detected, based on the procedure described by Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64:1363-1367, 1974). The seismicity parameters were calculated for the six main tectonic seismic zones of Iran, i.e., the Zagros Mountain Range, the Alborz Mountain Range, Central Iran, Kope Dagh, Azerbaijan, and Makran.

  15. Environmental impact of CO2, Rn, Hg degassing from the rupture zones produced by Wenchuan M s 8.0 earthquake in western Sichuan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xiaocheng; Chen, Zhi; Cui, Yueju

    2016-10-01

    The concentrations and flux of CO2, (222)Radon (Rn), and gaseous elemental mercury (Hg) in soil gas were investigated based on the field measurements in June 2010 at ten sites along the seismic rupture zones produced by the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan M s 8.0 earthquake in order to assess the environmental impact of degassing of CO2, Rn and Hg. Soil gas concentrations of 344 sampling points were obtained. Seventy measurements of CO2, Rn and Hg flux by the static accumulation chamber method were performed. The results of risk assessment of CO2, Rn and Hg concentration in soil gas showed that (1) the concentration of CO2 in the epicenter of Wenchuan M s 8.0 earthquake and north end of seismic ruptures had low risk of asphyxia; (2) the concentrations of Rn in the north segment of seismic ruptures had high levels of radon, Maximum was up to level 4, according to Chinese code (GB 50325-2001); (3) the average geoaccumulation index I geo of soil Hg denoted the lack of soil contamination, and maximum values classified the soil gas as moderately to strongly polluted in the epicenter. The investigation of soil gas CO2, Rn and Hg degassing rate indicated that (1) the CO2 in soil gas was characterized by a mean [Formula: see text] of -20.4 ‰ and by a mean CO2 flux of 88.1 g m(-2) day(-1), which were in the range of the typical values for biologic CO2 degassing. The maximum of soil CO2 flux reached values of 399 g m(-2) day(-1) in the epicenter; (2) the soil Rn had higher exhalation in the north segment of seismic ruptures, the maximum reached value of 1976 m Bq m(-2) s(-1); (3) the soil Hg flux was lower, ranging from -2.5 to 18.7 n g m(-2) h(-1) and increased from south to north. The mean flux over the all profiles was 4.2 n g m(-2) h(-1). The total output of CO2 and Hg degassing estimated along seismic ruptures for a survey area of 18.17 km(2) were approximately 0.57 Mt year(-1) and 688.19 g year(-1). It is recommended that land-use planners should

  16. Mw 8.5 BENGKULU EARTHQUAKES FROM CONTINUOUS GPS DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. A. W. Aris

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The Mw 8.5 Bengkulu earthquake of 30 September 2007 and the Mw8.6 28 March 2005 are considered amongst large earthquake ever recorded in Southeast Asia. The impact into tectonic deformation was recorded by a network of Global Positioning System (GPS Continuously Operating Reference Station (CORS within southern of Sumatra and west-coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The GPS data from the GPS CORS network has been deployed to investigate the characteristic of postseismic deformation due to the earthquakes. Analytical logarithmic and exponential function was applied to investigate the deformation decay period of postseismic deformation. This investigation provides a preliminary insight into postseismic cycle along the Sumatra subduction zone in particular and on the dynamics Peninsular Malaysia in general.

  17. Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

  18. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  19. Stress Drops for Oceanic Crust and Mantle Intraplate Earthquakes in the Subduction Zone of Northeastern Japan Inferred from the Spectral Inversion Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, H.; Ishikawa, K.; Arai, T.; Ibrahim, R.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding stress drop related to intraplate earthquakes in the subducting plate is very important for seismic hazard mitigation. In previous studies, Kita et al. (2015) analyzed stress drops for intraplate earthquakes under Hokkaido, Northern Japan, using S-coda wave spectral ratio analysis methods, and found that the stress drop for events occurring more than 10 km beneath the upper surface of the subducting plate (within the oceanic mantle) was larger than the stress drop for events occurring within 10 km of the upper surface of the subducting plate (in the oceanic crust). In this study, we focus on intraplate earthquakes that occur under Tohoku, Northeastern Japan, to determine whether similar stress drop differences may exist between earthquakes occurring within the upper 10 km of the subducting plate (within the oceanic crust) and those occurring deeper than 10 km (within the oceanic mantle), based on spectral inversion analysis of seismic waveforms recorded during the earthquakes. We selected 64 earthquakes with focal depths between 49-76 km and Mw 3.5-5.0 that occurred in the source area of the 2003 Miyagi-ken-oki earthquake (Mw 7.0) (region 1), and 82 earthquakes with focal depths between 49-67 km and Mw 3.5-5.5 in the source area of the 2011 Miyagi- ken-oki earthquake (Mw 7.1) (region 2). Records from the target earthquakes at 24 stations in region 1 and 21 stations in region 2 were used in the analysis. A 5-sec time window following S-wave onset was used for each station record. Borehole records of KiK-net station (MYGH04) was used as a reference station for both regions 1 and 2. We applied the spectral inversion analysis method of Matsunami et al. (2003) separately to regions 1 and 2. Our results show that stress drop generally increases with focal depth and that the stress drop for events occurring deeper than 10 km in the plate (within the oceanic mantle) were larger than the stress drop for events occurring within 10 km of the upper surface of the

  20. 3D geometry of a plate boundary fault related to the 2016 Off-Mie earthquake in the Nankai subduction zone, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuji, Takeshi; Minato, Shohei; Kamei, Rie; Tsuru, Tetsuro; Kimura, Gaku

    2017-11-01

    We used recent seismic data and advanced techniques to investigate 3D fault geometry over the transition from the partially coupled to the fully coupled plate interface inboard of the Nankai Trough off the Kii Peninsula, Japan. We found that a gently dipping plate boundary décollement with a thick underthrust layer extends beneath the entire Kumano forearc basin. The 1 April 2016 Off-Mie earthquake (Mw6.0) and its aftershocks occurred, where the plate boundary décollement steps down close to the oceanic crust surface. This location also lies beneath the trenchward edge of an older accretionary prism (∼14 Ma) developed along the coast of the Kii peninsula. The strike of the 2016 rupture plane was similar to that of a formerly active splay fault system in the accretionary prism. Thus, the fault planes of the 2016 earthquake and its aftershocks were influenced by the geometry of the plate interface as well as splay faulting. The 2016 earthquake occurred within the rupture area of large interplate earthquakes such as the 1944 Tonankai earthquake (Mw8.1), although the 2016 rupture area was much smaller than that of the 1944 event. Whereas the hypocenter of the 2016 earthquake was around the underplating sequence beneath the younger accretionary prism (∼6 Ma), the 1944 great earthquake hypocenter was close to oceanic crust surface beneath the older accretionary prism. The variation of fault geometry and lithology may influence the degree of coupling along the plate interface, and such coupling variation could hinder slip propagation toward the deeper plate interface in the 2016 event.

  1. Estimation of global daily irradiation in complex topography zones using digital elevation models and meteosat images: Comparison of the results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez-Durban, M.; Zarzalejo, L.F.; Bosch, J.L.; Rosiek, S.; Polo, J.; Batlles, F.J.

    2009-01-01

    The knowledge of the solar irradiation in a certain place is fundamental for the suitable location of solar systems, both thermal and photovoltaic. On the local scale, the topography is the most important modulating factor of the solar irradiation on the surface. In this work the global daily irradiation is estimated concerning various sky conditions, in zones of complex topography. In order to estimate the global daily irradiation we use a methodology based on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM), on one hand making use of pyranometer measurements and on the other hand utilizing satellite images. We underline that DTM application employing pyranometer measurements produces better results than estimation using satellite images, though accuracy of the same order is obtained in both cases for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE).

  2. Estimation of global daily irradiation in complex topography zones using digital elevation models and meteosat images: Comparison of the results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Durban, M. [Dpto. de Lenguajes y Computacion, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Zarzalejo, L.F.; Polo, J. [Dpto. de Energia, CIEMAT, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Bosch, J.L.; Rosiek, S.; Batlles, F.J. [Dpto. Fisica Aplicada, Universidad de Almeria, 04120 Almeria (Spain)

    2009-09-15

    The knowledge of the solar irradiation in a certain place is fundamental for the suitable location of solar systems, both thermal and photovoltaic. On the local scale, the topography is the most important modulating factor of the solar irradiation on the surface. In this work the global daily irradiation is estimated concerning various sky conditions, in zones of complex topography. In order to estimate the global daily irradiation we use a methodology based on a Digital Terrain Model (DTM), on one hand making use of pyranometer measurements and on the other hand utilizing satellite images. We underline that DTM application employing pyranometer measurements produces better results than estimation using satellite images, though accuracy of the same order is obtained in both cases for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE). (author)

  3. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Daniell

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes.

    Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon.

    Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected, and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured.

    Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing, 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product, exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index, and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons.

    This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global

  4. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.

    2011-08-01

    The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

  5. Charles Darwin's earthquake reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    problems which began to discuss only during the last time. Earthquakes often precede volcanic eruptions. According to Darwin, the earthquake-induced shock may be a common mechanism of the simultaneous eruptions of the volcanoes separated by long distances. In particular, Darwin wrote that ‘… the elevation of many hundred square miles of territory near Concepcion is part of the same phenomenon, with that splashing up, if I may so call it, of volcanic matter through the orifices in the Cordillera at the moment of the shock;…'. According to Darwin the crust is a system where fractured zones, and zones of seismic and volcanic activities interact. Darwin formulated the task of considering together the processes studied now as seismology and volcanology. However the difficulties are such that the study of interactions between earthquakes and volcanoes began only recently and his works on this had relatively little impact on the development of geosciences. In this report, we discuss how the latest data on seismic and volcanic events support the Darwin's observations and ideas about the 1835 Chilean earthquake. The material from researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474 is used. We show how modern mechanical tests from impact engineering and simple experiments with weakly-cohesive materials also support his observations and ideas. On the other hand, we developed the mathematical theory of the earthquake-induced catastrophic wave phenomena. This theory allow to explain the most important aspects the Darwin's earthquake reports. This is achieved through the simplification of fundamental governing equations of considering problems to strongly-nonlinear wave equations. Solutions of these equations are constructed with the help of analytic and numerical techniques. The solutions can model different strongly-nonlinear wave phenomena which generate in a variety of physical context. A comparison with relevant experimental observations is also presented.

  6. Investigation of Backprojection Uncertainties With M6 Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Wenyuan; Shearer, Peter M.

    2017-10-01

    We investigate possible biasing effects of inaccurate timing corrections on teleseismic P wave backprojection imaging of large earthquake ruptures. These errors occur because empirically estimated time shifts based on aligning P wave first arrivals are exact only at the hypocenter and provide approximate corrections for other parts of the rupture. Using the Japan subduction zone as a test region, we analyze 46 M6-M7 earthquakes over a 10 year period, including many aftershocks of the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake, performing waveform cross correlation of their initial P wave arrivals to obtain hypocenter timing corrections to global seismic stations. We then compare backprojection images for each earthquake using its own timing corrections with those obtained using the time corrections from other earthquakes. This provides a measure of how well subevents can be resolved with backprojection of a large rupture as a function of distance from the hypocenter. Our results show that backprojection is generally very robust and that the median subevent location error is about 25 km across the entire study region (˜700 km). The backprojection coherence loss and location errors do not noticeably converge to zero even when the event pairs are very close (<20 km). This indicates that most of the timing differences are due to 3-D structure close to each of the hypocenter regions, which limits the effectiveness of attempts to refine backprojection images using aftershock calibration, at least in this region.

  7. 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake: a photographic tour of Anchorage, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thoms, Evan E.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Anderson, Rebecca D.; McGimsey, Robert G.

    2014-01-01

    On March 27, 1964, at 5:36 p.m., a magnitude 9.2 earthquake, the largest recorded earthquake in U.S. history, struck southcentral Alaska (fig. 1). The Great Alaska Earthquake (also known as the Good Friday Earthquake) occurred at a pivotal time in the history of earth science, and helped lead to the acceptance of plate tectonic theory (Cox, 1973; Brocher and others, 2014). All large subduction zone earthquakes are understood through insights learned from the 1964 event, and observations and interpretations of the earthquake have influenced the design of infrastructure and seismic monitoring systems now in place. The earthquake caused extensive damage across the State, and triggered local tsunamis that devastated the Alaskan towns of Whittier, Valdez, and Seward. In Anchorage, the main cause of damage was ground shaking, which lasted approximately 4.5 minutes. Many buildings could not withstand this motion and were damaged or collapsed even though their foundations remained intact. More significantly, ground shaking triggered a number of landslides along coastal and drainage valley bluffs underlain by the Bootlegger Cove Formation, a composite of facies containing variably mixed gravel, sand, silt, and clay which were deposited over much of upper Cook Inlet during the Late Pleistocene (Ulery and others, 1983). Cyclic (or strain) softening of the more sensitive clay facies caused overlying blocks of soil to slide sideways along surfaces dipping by only a few degrees. This guide is the document version of an interactive web map that was created as part of the commemoration events for the 50th anniversary of the 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake. It is accessible at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Alaska Science Center website: http://alaska.usgs.gov/announcements/news/1964Earthquake/. The website features a map display with suggested tour stops in Anchorage, historical photographs taken shortly after the earthquake, repeat photography of selected sites, scanned documents

  8. Gas and Dust Phenomena of Mega-earthquakes and the Cause

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Z.

    2013-12-01

    A mega-earthquake suddenly releases a large to extremely large amount of kinetic energy within a few tens to two hundreds seconds and over ten to hundreds kilometer distances in the Earth's crust and on ground surface. It also generates seismic waves that can be received globally and co-seismic ground damages such co-seismic ruptures and landslides. However, such vast, dramatic and devastating kinetic actions in the Earth's crustal rocks and on the ground soils cannot be known or predicted by people at few weeks, days, hours, or minutes before they are happening. Although seismologists can develop and use seismometers to report the locations and magnitudes of earthquakes within minutes of their occurrence, they cannot predict earthquakes at present. Therefore, damage earthquakes have caused and would continue to cause huge disasters, fatalities and injuries to our human beings. This problem may indicate that it is necessary to re-examine the cause of mega-earthquakes in addition to the conventional cause of active fault elastic rebounding. In the last ten years, many mega-earthquakes occurred in China and around the Pacific Ocean and caused many casualties to human beings and devastating disasters to environments. The author will give a brief review on the impacts of the mega-earthquakes happened in recent years. He will then present many gas and dust related phenomena associated with the sudden occurrences of these mega earthquakes. They include the 2001 Kunlunshan Earthquake M8.1, 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake M8.0 and the 2010 Yushu Earthquake M7.1 in China, the 2010 Haiti Earthquake M7.0, the 2010 Mexicali Earthquake M7.2, the 2010 Chile Earthquake M8.8, the 2011 Christchurch earthquake M6.3 and the 2011 Japan Earthquake M9.0 around the Pacific Ocean. He will discuss the cause of these gas and dust related phenomena. He will use these phenomena and their common cause to show that the earthquakes were caused the rapid migration and expansion of highly compressed and

  9. Exploration of the role of permeability and effective stress transfer effects on Earthquakes Migration in a Fault Zone induced by a Fluid Injection in the nearby host rock: Experimental and Numerical Result.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsopela, A.; Guglielmi, Y.; Donze, F. V.; De Barros, L.; Henry, P.; Castilla, R.; Gout, C.

    2016-12-01

    Although it has long been known that anthropogenic fluid injections can induce earthquakes, the mechanisms involved are still poorly understood and our ability to assess the seismic hazard associated to the production of geothermal energy or unconventional hydrocarbon remains limited. Here we present a field injection experiment conducted in the host rock 4m away from a fault affecting Toarcian shales (Tournemire massif, France). A dense network of sensors recorded fluid pressure, flow-rate, deformation and seismic activity. Injections followed an extended leak-off test protocol. Failure in the host rock was observed for a pressure of 4.4 MPa associated to a strike-slip-to-reverse reactivation of a pre-existing fracture. Magnitude -4.2 to -3.8 seismic events were located in the fault zone 3.5-to->10m away from the injection showing focal mechanisms in reasonable agreement with a strike-slip reactivation of the fault structures. We first used fully coupled hydro-mechanical numerical modeling to quantify the injection source parameters (state of stress, size of the rupture patch and size of the pressurized patch). We applied an injection loading protocol characterized by an imposed flow rate-vs-time history according to the volume of fluid injected in-situ, to match calculated and measured pressure and displacement variations at the injection source. We then used a larger model including the fault zone to discuss how predominant the effects of stress transfer mechanisms causing a purely mechanical fault activation can be compared to the effects of effective stress variations associated to fluid propagation in the fault structures. Preliminary results are that calculated slipping patches are much higher than the one estimated from seismicity, respectively 0.3m and <10-6m, and that the dimensions of the pressurized zone hardly matches with the distance of the earthquakes.

  10. Ground motion attenuation during M 7.1 Darfield and M 6.2 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquakes and performance of global Ppedictive models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segou, Margaret; Kalkan, Erol

    2011-01-01

    The M 7.1 Darfield earthquake occurred 40 km west of Christchurch (New Zealand) on 4 September 2010. Six months after, the city was struck again with an M 6.2 event on 22 February local time (21 February UTC). These events resulted in significant damage to infrastructure in the city and its suburbs. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of global predictive models (GMPEs) using the strong motion data obtained from these two events to improve future seismic hazard assessment and building code provisions for the Canterbury region.The Canterbury region is located on the boundary between the Pacific and Australian plates; its surface expression is the active right lateral Alpine fault (Berryman et al. 1993). Beneath the North Island and the north South Island, the Pacific plate subducts obliquely under the Australian plate, while at the southwestern part of the South Island, a reverse process takes place. Although New Zealand has experienced several major earthquakes in the past as a result of its complex seismotectonic environment (e.g., M 7.1 1888 North Canterbury, M 7.0 1929 Arthur's Pass, and M 6.2 1995 Cass), there was no evidence of prior seismic activity in Christchurch and its surroundings before the September event. The Darfield and Christchurch earthquakes occurred along the previously unmapped Greendale fault in the Canterbury basin, which is covered by Quaternary alluvial deposits (Forsyth et al. 2008). In Figure 1, site conditions of the Canterbury epicentral area are depicted on a VS30 map. This map was determined on the basis of topographic slope calculated from a 1-km grid using the method of Allen and Wald (2007). Also shown are the locations of strong motion stations.The Darfield event was generated as a result of a complex rupture mechanism; the recordings and geodetic data reveal that earthquake consists of three sub-events (Barnhart et al. 2011, page 815 of this issue). The first event was due to rupturing of a blind reverse

  11. Workshop on New Madrid geodesy and the challenges of understanding intraplate earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Oliver; Calais, Eric; Langbein, John; Magistrale, Harold; Stein, Seth; Zoback, Mark

    2013-01-01

    On March 4, 2011, 26 researchers gathered in Norwood, Massachusetts, for a workshop sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey and FM Global to discuss geodesy in and around the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) and its relation to earthquake hazard. The group addressed the challenge of reconciling current geodetic measurements, which show low present-day surface strain rates, with paleoseismic evidence of recent, relatively frequent, major earthquakes in the region. Several researchers were invited by the organizing committee to give overview presentations while all participants were encouraged to present their most recent ideas. The overview presentations appear in this report along with a set of recommendations.

  12. Soft-sediment deformation in New Zealand: Structures resulting from the 2010/11 Christchurch earthquakes and comparison with Pleistocene sediments of the Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz, C.; Downs, D. T.; Gravley, D.; Quigley, M.; Rowland, J. V.

    2011-12-01

    The distinction between seismites and other event-related soft-sediment deformation is a challenging problem. Recognition and interpretation is aided by comparison of recent examples produced during known seismic events and those generated experimentally. Seismites are important features, once recognized in a rock, for interpretations of paleotectonic environment, tectonic relationships of sediments in basins, sedimentary facies analysis, evaluation of earthquake frequency and hazard and consequent land managment. Two examples of soft-sediment deformation, potentially generated through ground shaking and associated liquefaction, are described from within the TVZ: 1) Near Matata on the western margin of the Whakatane Graben. This location has a complicated en-echelon fault history and large earthquakes occur from time to time (e.g., 1987 ML6.3 Edgecumbe event). The structures occur in ~550 ka volcanic sediments, and represent soft-sediment deformation within stratigraphically-bounded layers. Based on paleoenvironment, appearance, and diagnostic criteria described by other authors (Sims 1975; Hempton and Dewey 1983), we interpret these features to have formed by ground shaking related to an earthquake and/or possibly accompanying large volcanic eruptions, rather than by slope failure. 2) Near Taupo, 3 km from the active Kaiapo fault. Lakeward dipping, nearly horizontal lacustrine sediments overlay Taupo Ignimbrite (1.8 ka). At one outcrop the lake beds have subsided into the underlying substrate resulting in kidney-shaped features. These structures formed as a result of liquefaction of the underlying substrate, which may have been caused by ground shaking related to either seismic or volcanic activity. However, inferred time relationships are more consistent with seismic-induced ground shaking. We compare and contrast the form and geometry of the above structures with seismites generated during the recent Christchurch earthquakes (Sep. 2010 and Feb. 2011). Hempton, M

  13. The 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake - a human-caused event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, C. D.

    2013-12-01

    A catalog of global human-caused earthquakes shows statistical evidence that the triggering of earthquakes by large-scale geoengineering activities depends on geological and tectonic constrains (in Klose 2013). Such geoengineering activities also include the filling of water reservoirs. This presentation illuminates mechanical and statistical aspects of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in light of the hypothesis of being NOT human-caused. However, available data suggest that the Wenchuan earthquake was triggered by the filling of the Zipungpu water reservoir 30 months prior to the mainshock. The reservoir spatially extended parallel and near to the main Beichuan fault zone in a highly stressed reverse fault regime. It is mechanically evident that reverse faults tend to be very trigger-sensitive due to mass shifts (static loads) that occur on the surface of the Earth's crust. These circumstances made a triggering of a seismic event of this magnitude at this location possible (in Klose 2008, 2012). The data show that the Wenchuan earthquake is not an outlier. From a statistical view point, the earthquake falls into the upper range of the family of reverse fault earthquakes that were caused by humans worldwide.

  14. Tsunami simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai Trough (Japan) based on stochastic rupture scenarios

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mai, Paul Martin; Maruyama, Takuma; Mori, Nobuhito

    2017-01-01

    In this study, earthquake rupture models for future mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai subduction zone are developed by incorporating the main characteristics of inverted source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. These scenario

  15. Indoor radon and earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saghatelyan, E.; Petrosyan, L.; Aghbalyan, Yu.; Baburyan, M.; Araratyan, L.

    2004-01-01

    For the first time on the basis of the Spitak earthquake of December 1988 (Armenia, December 1988) experience it is found out that the earthquake causes intensive and prolonged radon splashes which, rapidly dispersing in the open space of close-to-earth atmosphere, are contrastingly displayed in covered premises (dwellings, schools, kindergartens) even if they are at considerable distance from the earthquake epicenter, and this multiplies the radiation influence on the population. The interval of splashes includes the period from the first fore-shock to the last after-shock, i.e. several months. The area affected by radiation is larger vs. Armenia's territory. The scale of this impact on population is 12 times higher than the number of people injured in Spitak, Leninakan and other settlements (toll of injured - 25 000 people, radiation-induced diseases in people - over 300 000). The influence of radiation directly correlates with the earthquake force. Such a conclusion is underpinned by indoor radon monitoring data for Yerevan since 1987 (120 km from epicenter) 5450 measurements and multivariate analysis with identification of cause-and-effect linkages between geo dynamics of indoor radon under stable and conditions of Earth crust, behavior of radon in different geological mediums during earthquakes, levels of room radon concentrations and effective equivalent dose of radiation impact of radiation dose on health and statistical data on public health provided by the Ministry of Health. The following hitherto unexplained facts can be considered as consequences of prolonged radiation influence on human organism: long-lasting state of apathy and indifference typical of the population of Armenia during the period of more than a year after the earthquake, prevalence of malignant cancer forms in disaster zones, dominating lung cancer and so on. All urban territories of seismically active regions are exposed to the threat of natural earthquake-provoked radiation influence

  16. The threat of silent earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervelli, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Not all earthquakes shake the ground. The so-called silent types are forcing scientists to rethink their understanding of the way quake-prone faults behave. In rare instances, silent earthquakes that occur along the flakes of seaside volcanoes may cascade into monstrous landslides that crash into the sea and trigger towering tsunamis. Silent earthquakes that take place within fault zones created by one tectonic plate diving under another may increase the chance of ground-shaking shocks. In other locations, however, silent slip may decrease the likelihood of destructive quakes, because they release stress along faults that might otherwise seem ready to snap.

  17. Temporal v P/ v S variation characteristics in different zones of China's Capital Circle area before and after Wen'an earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin-Ying; Guo, Yong-Xia; Liu, Fang; Jiang, Chang-Sheng

    2008-05-01

    On July 4, 2006, an earthquake of M S5.1 took place in Wen’an, Hebei Province, just at the south center of China’s Capital Circle area digital seismograph network. It is the strongest event recorded ever since the network went into operation in 2002. We processed the vast amounts of phase data yielded by the 107 digital seismic stations between 2002˜2007 using Wadati method. In order to improve the precision and stability of shear and compressional wave velocities ( v P/ v S) calculation, we impose a number of restrictions on the computation environment and condition, e.g., the earthquakes are densely concentrated, selected stations are limited in range, the number of stations involved in the computation is larger than 5 and linear fitting features high precision and small error. Under these restrictions, the study shows that v P/ v S in and around Wen’an and Tangshan underwent a normal-low-normal process one year before Wen’an earthquake, v P/ v S became obviously low and the low ratio lasted for about one year, meanwhile, little variation of v P/ v S was seen in Xingtai, northwest of Beijing, southwest of Beijing, Beijing-Tianjin and Beijing; after the quake, the v P/ v S returned normal in Wen’an and Tangshan. Error and stability analysis of the calculated result for v P/ v S shows it is convincible that anomaly appeared in and around Wen’an and Tangshan before Wen’an earthquake.

  18. 3D ground‐motion simulations of Mw 7 earthquakes on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone: Variability of long‐period (T≥1  s) ground motions and sensitivity to kinematic rupture parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hartzell, Stephen; Ramirez-Guzman, Leonardo; Frankel, Arthur; Angster, Stephen J.; Stephenson, William J.

    2017-01-01

    We examine the variability of long‐period (T≥1  s) earthquake ground motions from 3D simulations of Mw 7 earthquakes on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah, from a set of 96 rupture models with varying slip distributions, rupture speeds, slip velocities, and hypocenter locations. Earthquake ruptures were prescribed on a 3D fault representation that satisfies geologic constraints and maintained distinct strands for the Warm Springs and for the East Bench and Cottonwood faults. Response spectral accelerations (SA; 1.5–10 s; 5% damping) were measured, and average distance scaling was well fit by a simple functional form that depends on the near‐source intensity level SA0(T) and a corner distance Rc:SA(R,T)=SA0(T)(1+(R/Rc))−1. Period‐dependent hanging‐wall effects manifested and increased the ground motions by factors of about 2–3, though the effects appeared partially attributable to differences in shallow site response for sites on the hanging wall and footwall of the fault. Comparisons with modern ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) found that the simulated ground motions were generally consistent, except within deep sedimentary basins, where simulated ground motions were greatly underpredicted. Ground‐motion variability exhibited strong lateral variations and, at some sites, exceeded the ground‐motion variability indicated by GMPEs. The effects on the ground motions of changing the values of the five kinematic rupture parameters can largely be explained by three predominant factors: distance to high‐slip subevents, dynamic stress drop, and changes in the contributions from directivity. These results emphasize the need for further characterization of the underlying distributions and covariances of the kinematic rupture parameters used in 3D ground‐motion simulations employed in probabilistic seismic‐hazard analyses.

  19. Fault model of the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Mw 6.5 earthquake estimated from coseismic deformation observed using Global Positioning System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Zhaosheng; Wang, Di-Jin; Jia, Zhige; Yu, Pengfei; Li, Liangfa

    2018-04-01

    On August 8, 2017, the Jiuzhaigou Mw 6.5 earthquake occurred in Sichuan province, southwestern China, along the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. The epicenter is surrounded by the Minjiang, Huya, and Tazang Faults. As the seismic activity and tectonics are very complicated, there is controversy regarding the accurate location of the epicenter and the seismic fault of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. To investigate these aspects, first, the coseismic deformation field was derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements. Second, the fault geometry, coseismic slip model, and Coulomb stress changes around the seismic region were calculated using a homogeneous elastic half-space model. The coseismic deformation field derived from InSAR measurements shows that this event was mainly dominated by a left-lateral strike-slip fault. The maximal and minimal displacements were approximately 0.15 m and - 0.21 m, respectively, along line-of-sight observation. The whole deformation field follows a northwest-trending direction and is mainly concentrated west of the fault. The coseismic slip is 28 km along the strike and 18 km along the dip. It is dominated by a left-lateral strike-slip fault. The average and maximal fault slip is 0.18 and 0.85 m, respectively. The rupture did not fully reach the ground surface. The focal mechanism derived from GPS and InSAR data is consistent with the kinematics and geometry of the Huya Fault. Therefore, we conclude that the northern section or the Shuzheng segment of the Huya Fault is the seismogenic fault. The maximal fault slip is located at 33.25°N and 103.82°E at a depth of 11 km, and the release moment is approximately 6.635 × 1018 Nm, corresponding to a magnitude of Mw 6.49, which is consistent with results reported by the US Geological Survey, Global Centroid Moment Tensor, and other researchers. The coseismic Coulomb stress changes enhanced the stress on the northwest and

  20. A model of the solar cycle driven by the dynamo action of the global convection in the solar convection zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshimura, H.

    1975-01-01

    The dynamo equation which represents the longitudinally averaged magnetohydrodynamical action of the global convection influenced by the rotation in the solar convection zone is solved numerically to simulate the solar cycle as an initial boundary-value problem. The radial and latitudinal structure of the dynamo action is parametrized in accordance with the structure of the rotation, and of the global convection especially in such a way as to represent the presence of the two cells of the regeneration action in the radial direction in which the action has opposite signs, which is typical of the regeneration action of the global convection. A nonlinear process is included by assuming that part of the magnetic field energy is dissipated when the magnetic field strength exceeds some critical value; the formation of active regions and subsequent dissipations are thus simulated. By adjusting the parameters within a reasonable range, oscillatory solutions are obtained to simulate the solar cycle with the period of the right order of magnitude and with the patterns of evolution of the latitudinal distribution of the toroidal component of the magnetic field similar to the observed Butterfly Diagram of sunspots. The evolution of the latitudinal distribution of the radial component of the magnetic field shows patterns similar to the Butterfly Diagram, but having two branches of different polarity in each hemisphere. The development of the radial structure of the magnetic field associated with the solar cycle is presented. The importance of the poleward migrating branch of the Butterfly Diagram is emphasized in relation to the relative importance of the role of the latitudinal and radial shears of the differential rotation

  1. Analog earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofmann, R.B.

    1995-01-01

    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository

  2. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  3. Earthquake Clusters and Spatio-temporal Migration of earthquakes in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau: a Finite Element Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Y.; Luo, G.

    2017-12-01

    Seismicity in a region is usually characterized by earthquake clusters and earthquake migration along its major fault zones. However, we do not fully understand why and how earthquake clusters and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes occur. The northeastern Tibetan Plateau is a good example for us to investigate these problems. In this study, we construct and use a three-dimensional viscoelastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and spatio-temporal migration of earthquakes along major fault zones in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We calculate stress evolution and fault interactions, and explore effects of topographic loading and viscosity of middle-lower crust and upper mantle on model results. Model results show that earthquakes and fault interactions increase Coulomb stress on the neighboring faults or segments, accelerating the future earthquakes in this region. Thus, earthquakes occur sequentially in a short time, leading to regional earthquake clusters. Through long-term evolution, stresses on some seismogenic faults, which are far apart, may almost simultaneously reach the critical state of fault failure, probably also leading to regional earthquake clusters and earthquake migration. Based on our model synthetic seismic catalog and paleoseismic data, we analyze probability of earthquake migration between major faults in northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We find that following the 1920 M 8.5 Haiyuan earthquake and the 1927 M 8.0 Gulang earthquake, the next big event (M≥7) in northeastern Tibetan Plateau would be most likely to occur on the Haiyuan fault.

  4. Internal tectonic structure of the Central American Wadati-Benioff zone based on analysis of aftershock sequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Špičák, Aleš; Hanuš, Václav; Vaněk, Jiří; Běhounková, Marie

    2007-09-01

    Relocated Engdahl et al. (1998) global seismological data for 10 aftershock sequences were used to analyze the internal tectonic structure of the Central American subduction zone; the main shocks of several of these were the most destructive and often referenced earthquakes in the region (e.g., the 1970 Chiapas, 1983 Osa, 1992 Nicaragua, 1999 Quepos, 2001 El Salvador earthquakes). The spatial analysis of aftershock foci distribution was performed in a rotated Cartesian coordinate system (x, y, z) related to the Wadati-Benioff zone, and not in a standard coordinate system ($\\varphi$, λ, h are latitude, longitude, focal depth, respectively). Available fault plane solutions were also transformed into the plane approximating the Wadati-Benioff zone. The spatial distribution of earthquakes in each aftershock sequence was modeled as either a plane fit using a least squares approximation or a volume fit with a minimum thickness rectangular box. The analysis points to a quasi-planar distribution of earthquake foci in all aftershock sequences, manifesting the appurtenance of aftershocks to fracture zones. Geometrical parameters of fracture zones (strike, dip, and dimensions) hosting individual sequences were calculated and compared with the seafloor morphology of the Cocos Plate. The smooth character of the seafloor correlates with the aftershock fracture zones oriented parallel to the trench and commonly subparallel to the subducting slab, whereas subduction of the Cocos Ridge and seamounts around the Quepos Plateau coincides with steeply dipping fracture zones. Transformed focal mechanisms are almost exclusively (>90%) of normal character.

  5. Leveraging geodetic data to reduce losses from earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Jessica R.; Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Langbein, John O.; Leith, William S.; Minson, Sarah E.; Svarc, Jerry L.; Thatcher, Wayne R.

    2018-04-23

    event response products and by expanded use of geodetic imaging data to assess fault rupture and source parameters.Uncertainties in the NSHM, and in regional earthquake models, are reduced by fully incorporating geodetic data into earthquake probability calculations.Geodetic networks and data are integrated into the operations and earthquake information products of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS).Earthquake early warnings are improved by more rapidly assessing ground displacement and the dynamic faulting process for the largest earthquakes using real-time geodetic data.Methodology for probabilistic earthquake forecasting is refined by including geodetic data when calculating evolving moment release during aftershock sequences and by better understanding the implications of transient deformation for earthquake likelihood.A geodesy program that encompasses a balanced mix of activities to sustain missioncritical capabilities, grows new competencies through the continuum of fundamental to applied research, and ensures sufficient resources for these endeavors provides a foundation by which the EHP can be a leader in the application of geodesy to earthquake science. With this in mind the following objectives provide a framework to guide EHP efforts:Fully utilize geodetic information to improve key products, such as the NSHM and EEW, and to address new ventures like the USGS Subduction Zone Science Plan.Expand the variety, accuracy, and timeliness of post-earthquake information products, such as PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response), through incorporation of geodetic observations.Determine if geodetic measurements of transient deformation can significantly improve estimates of earthquake probability.Maintain an observational strategy aligned with the target outcomes of this document that includes continuous monitoring, recording of ephemeral observations, focused data collection for use in research, and application-driven data processing and

  6. Analysis of Seismotektonic Patterns in Sumatra Region Based on the Focal Mechanism of Earthquake Period 1976-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indah, F. P.; Syafriani, S.; Andiyansyah, Z. S.

    2018-04-01

    Sumatra is in an active subduction zone between the indo-australian plate and the eurasian plate and is located at a fault along the sumatra fault so that sumatra is vulnerable to earthquakes. One of the ways to find out the cause of earthquake can be done by identifying the type of earthquake-causing faults based on earthquake of focal mechanism. The data used to identify the type of fault cause of earthquake is the earth tensor moment data which is sourced from global cmt period 1976-2016. The data used in this research using magnitude m ≥ 6 sr. This research uses gmt software (generic mapping tolls) to describe the form of fault. From the research result, it is found that the characteristics of fault field that formed in every region in sumatera island based on data processing and data of earthquake history of 1976-2016 period that the type of fault in sumatera fault is strike slip, fault type in mentawai fault is reverse fault (rising faults) and dip-slip, while the fault type in the subduction zone is dip-slip.

  7. Evidence for Ancient Mesoamerican Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovach, R. L.; Garcia, B.

    2001-12-01

    Evidence for past earthquake damage at Mesoamerican ruins is often overlooked because of the invasive effects of tropical vegetation and is usually not considered as a casual factor when restoration and reconstruction of many archaeological sites are undertaken. Yet the proximity of many ruins to zones of seismic activity would argue otherwise. Clues as to the types of damage which should be soughtwere offered in September 1999 when the M = 7.5 Oaxaca earthquake struck the ruins of Monte Alban, Mexico, where archaeological renovations were underway. More than 20 structures were damaged, 5 of them seriously. Damage features noted were walls out of plumb, fractures in walls, floors, basal platforms and tableros, toppling of columns, and deformation, settling and tumbling of walls. A Modified Mercalli Intensity of VII (ground accelerations 18-34 %b) occurred at the site. Within the diffuse landward extension of the Caribbean plate boundary zone M = 7+ earthquakes occur with repeat times of hundreds of years arguing that many Maya sites were subjected to earthquakes. Damage to re-erected and reinforced stelae, walls, and buildings were witnessed at Quirigua, Guatemala, during an expedition underway when then 1976 M = 7.5 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault struck. Excavations also revealed evidence (domestic pttery vessels and skeleton of a child crushed under fallen walls) of an ancient earthquake occurring about the teim of the demise and abandonment of Quirigua in the late 9th century. Striking evidence for sudden earthquake building collapse at the end of the Mayan Classic Period ~A.D. 889 was found at Benque Viejo (Xunantunich), Belize, located 210 north of Quirigua. It is argued that a M = 7.5 to 7.9 earthquake at the end of the Maya Classic period centered in the vicinity of the Chixoy-Polochic and Motagua fault zones cound have produced the contemporaneous earthquake damage to the above sites. As a consequences this earthquake may have accelerated the

  8. The "Grey Zone" cold air outbreak global model intercomparison: A cross evaluation using large-eddy simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomassini, Lorenzo; Field, Paul R.; Honnert, Rachel; Malardel, Sylvie; McTaggart-Cowan, Ron; Saitou, Kei; Noda, Akira T.; Seifert, Axel

    2017-03-01

    A stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition as observed in a cold air outbreak over the North Atlantic Ocean is compared in global climate and numerical weather prediction models and a large-eddy simulation model as part of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation "Grey Zone" project. The focus of the project is to investigate to what degree current convection and boundary layer parameterizations behave in a scale-adaptive manner in situations where the model resolution approaches the scale of convection. Global model simulations were performed at a wide range of resolutions, with convective parameterizations turned on and off. The models successfully simulate the transition between the observed boundary layer structures, from a well-mixed stratocumulus to a deeper, partly decoupled cumulus boundary layer. There are indications that surface fluxes are generally underestimated. The amount of both cloud liquid water and cloud ice, and likely precipitation, are under-predicted, suggesting deficiencies in the strength of vertical mixing in shear-dominated boundary layers. But also regulation by precipitation and mixed-phase cloud microphysical processes play an important role in the case. With convection parameterizations switched on, the profiles of atmospheric liquid water and cloud ice are essentially resolution-insensitive. This, however, does not imply that convection parameterizations are scale-aware. Even at the highest resolutions considered here, simulations with convective parameterizations do not converge toward the results of convection-off experiments. Convection and boundary layer parameterizations strongly interact, suggesting the need for a unified treatment of convective and turbulent mixing when addressing scale-adaptivity.

  9. Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takarada, S.

    2012-12-01

    The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

  10. Physics of Earthquake Rupture Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Shiqing; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Sagy, Amir; Doan, Mai-Linh

    2018-05-01

    A comprehensive understanding of earthquake rupture propagation requires the study of not only the sudden release of elastic strain energy during co-seismic slip, but also of other processes that operate at a variety of spatiotemporal scales. For example, the accumulation of the elastic strain energy usually takes decades to hundreds of years, and rupture propagation and termination modify the bulk properties of the surrounding medium that can influence the behavior of future earthquakes. To share recent findings in the multiscale investigation of earthquake rupture propagation, we held a session entitled "Physics of Earthquake Rupture Propagation" during the 2016 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting in San Francisco. The session included 46 poster and 32 oral presentations, reporting observations of natural earthquakes, numerical and experimental simulations of earthquake ruptures, and studies of earthquake fault friction. These presentations and discussions during and after the session suggested a need to document more formally the research findings, particularly new observations and views different from conventional ones, complexities in fault zone properties and loading conditions, the diversity of fault slip modes and their interactions, the evaluation of observational and model uncertainties, and comparison between empirical and physics-based models. Therefore, we organize this Special Issue (SI) of Tectonophysics under the same title as our AGU session, hoping to inspire future investigations. Eighteen articles (marked with "this issue") are included in this SI and grouped into the following six categories.

  11. The Great 1787 Earthquake (M 8.6) and Tsunami along The Mexican Subduction Zone - History, Geology and Tsunami Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Lagos, M.; Goguitchaichvili, A.; Machain-Castillo, M. L.; Caballero, M.; Ruiz-Fernandez, A. C.; Suarez, G.; Ortuño, M.

    2017-12-01

    The 1787 great earthquake (M 8.6) triggered a deadly tsunami that poured over the coast of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Chiapas, along more than 500 km of the Mexican Pacific coast and up to 6 km inland. This tsunami, according with historical documents, destroyed mostly farmlands and livestock, and damaged few villages since the density of population was sparse at the time. We report first on geological evidence from the Corralero lagoon and adjacent coastal plain that seem in agreement with historical accounts. The deposit left by the 1787 tsunami can be traced along a transect of cores and test pits from the coastline and up to 1.6 km inland. The test pits showed an anomalous sand layer that was deposited in a single event in the swales of a series of beach ridges. The anomalous layer is almost continuous along the transect, about a 1000 m-long, and is formed of coarse to medium sand, at variable depths, with variable thickness, and pinching up with the distance from the coastline. We used stratigraphy, grain size, microfossils (foraminifera and diatoms), magnetic susceptibility and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility proxies to reveal the nature of this anomalous sand layer. Stratigraphy, abrupt contacts, and magnetic properties support a sudden and rapid event, consisting of sands transported most probably by an extreme sea-wave far inland. Furthermore, based on the accounts of the 1787 earthquake (M 8.6) and tsunami, and estimates from 210Pb sedimentation rates, we suggest that this is the tsunami deposit left by the 1787 event. Tsunami modeling will further enhance the hazard and risk assessment of this area in Mexico.

  12. Foreshocks and aftershocks of strong earthquakes in the light of catastrophe theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmi, A. V.

    2015-04-01

    In this review, general ideas and specific results from catastrophe theory and the theory of critical phenomena are applied to the analysis of strong earthquakes. Aspects given particular attention are the sharp rise in the fluctuation level, the increased reactivity of dynamical systems in the near-threshold region, and other anomalous phenomena similar to critical opalescence. Given the lack of a sufficiently complete theory of earthquakes, this appears to be a valid approach to the analysis of observations. The study performed brought out some nontrivial properties of a strong-earthquake source that manifest themselves both before and after the main rupture discontinuity forms at the mainshock. In the course of the analysis of the foreshocks and aftershocks, such concepts as the round-the-world seismic echo, the cumulative effect of converging surface waves on the epicentral zone, and global seismicity modulation by Earth's free oscillations are introduced. Further research in this field is likely to be interesting and promising.

  13. Deformation analysis of Aceh April 11{sup th} 2012 earthquake using GPS observation data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maulida, Putra, E-mail: putra.maulida@gmail.com [Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Meilano, Irwan; Sarsito, Dina A. [Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Geodesy Research Group, geodesy and geomatic Engineering, ITB (Indonesia); Susilo [Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Geospatial Information Agency (BIG) (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    This research tries to estimate the co-seismic deformation of intraplate earthquake occurred off northern Sumatra coast which is about 100-200 km southwest of Sumatrasubduction zone. The earthquake mechanism was strike-slip with magnitude 8.6 and triggering aftershock with magnitude 8.2 two hours later. We estimated the co-seismic deformation by using the GPS (Global Positioning System) continuous data along western Sumatra coast. The GPS observation derived from Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr) and Geospatial Information Agency (BIG). For data processing we used GPS Analyze at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (GAMIT) software and Global Kalman Filter (GLOBK) to estimate the co-seismic deformation. From the GPS daily solution, the result shows that the earthquake caused displacement for the GPS stations in Sumatra. GPS stations in northern Sumatra showed the displacement to the northeast with the average displacement was 15 cm. The biggest displacement was found at station BSIM which is located at Simeuleu Island off north west Sumatra coast. GPS station in middle part of Sumatra, the displacement was northwest. The earthquake also caused subsidence for stations in northern Sumatra, but from the time series there was not sign of subsidence was found at middle part of Sumatra. In addition, the effect of the earthquake was worldwide and affected the other GPS Stations around Hindia oceanic.

  14. Deformation analysis of Aceh April 11th 2012 earthquake using GPS observation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maulida, Putra; Meilano, Irwan; Sarsito, Dina A.; Susilo

    2015-04-01

    This research tries to estimate the co-seismic deformation of intraplate earthquake occurred off northern Sumatra coast which is about 100-200 km southwest of Sumatrasubduction zone. The earthquake mechanism was strike-slip with magnitude 8.6 and triggering aftershock with magnitude 8.2 two hours later. We estimated the co-seismic deformation by using the GPS (Global Positioning System) continuous data along western Sumatra coast. The GPS observation derived from Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr) and Geospatial Information Agency (BIG). For data processing we used GPS Analyze at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (GAMIT) software and Global Kalman Filter (GLOBK) to estimate the co-seismic deformation. From the GPS daily solution, the result shows that the earthquake caused displacement for the GPS stations in Sumatra. GPS stations in northern Sumatra showed the displacement to the northeast with the average displacement was 15 cm. The biggest displacement was found at station BSIM which is located at Simeuleu Island off north west Sumatra coast. GPS station in middle part of Sumatra, the displacement was northwest. The earthquake also caused subsidence for stations in northern Sumatra, but from the time series there was not sign of subsidence was found at middle part of Sumatra. In addition, the effect of the earthquake was worldwide and affected the other GPS Stations around Hindia oceanic.

  15. The mechanism of earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Kunquan; Cao, Zexian; Hou, Meiying; Jiang, Zehui; Shen, Rong; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Gang; Liu, Jixing

    2018-03-01

    strength of crust rocks: The gravitational pressure can initiate the elasticity-plasticity transition in crust rocks. By calculating the depth dependence of elasticity-plasticity transition and according to the actual situation analysis, the behaviors of crust rocks can be categorized in three typical zones: elastic, partially plastic and fully plastic. As the proportion of plastic portion reaches about 10% in the partially plastic zone, plastic interconnection may occur and the variation of shear strength in rocks is mainly characterized by plastic behavior. The equivalent coefficient of friction for the plastic slip is smaller by an order of magnitude, or even less than that for brittle fracture, thus the shear strength of rocks by plastic sliding is much less than that by brittle breaking. Moreover, with increasing depth a number of other factors can further reduce the shear yield strength of rocks. On the other hand, since earthquake is a large-scale damage, the rock breaking must occur along the weakest path. Therefore, the actual fracture strength of rocks in a shallow earthquake is assuredly lower than the average shear strength of rocks as generally observed. The typical distributions of the average strength and actual fracture strength in crustal rocks varying with depth are schematically illustrated. (3) The conditions for earthquake occurrence and mechanisms of earthquake: An earthquake will lead to volume expansion, and volume expansion must break through the obstacle. The condition for an earthquake to occur is as follows: the tectonic force exceeds the sum of the fracture strength of rock, the friction force of fault boundary and the resistance from obstacles. Therefore, the shallow earthquake is characterized by plastic sliding of rocks that break through the obstacles. Accordingly, four possible patterns for shallow earthquakes are put forward. Deep-focus earthquakes are believed to result from a wide-range rock flow that breaks the jam. Both shallow

  16. Geological and historical evidence of irregular recurrent earthquakes in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satake, Kenji

    2015-10-28

    Great (M∼8) earthquakes repeatedly occur along the subduction zones around Japan and cause fault slip of a few to several metres releasing strains accumulated from decades to centuries of plate motions. Assuming a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model that similar earthquakes repeat at regular intervals, probabilities of future earthquake occurrence have been calculated by a government committee. However, recent studies on past earthquakes including geological traces from giant (M∼9) earthquakes indicate a variety of size and recurrence interval of interplate earthquakes. Along the Kuril Trench off Hokkaido, limited historical records indicate that average recurrence interval of great earthquakes is approximately 100 years, but the tsunami deposits show that giant earthquakes occurred at a much longer interval of approximately 400 years. Along the Japan Trench off northern Honshu, recurrence of giant earthquakes similar to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake with an interval of approximately 600 years is inferred from historical records and tsunami deposits. Along the Sagami Trough near Tokyo, two types of Kanto earthquakes with recurrence interval of a few hundred years and a few thousand years had been recognized, but studies show that the recent three Kanto earthquakes had different source extents. Along the Nankai Trough off western Japan, recurrence of great earthquakes with an interval of approximately 100 years has been identified from historical literature, but tsunami deposits indicate that the sizes of the recurrent earthquakes are variable. Such variability makes it difficult to apply a simple 'characteristic earthquake' model for the long-term forecast, and several attempts such as use of geological data for the evaluation of future earthquake probabilities or the estimation of maximum earthquake size in each subduction zone are being conducted by government committees. © 2015 The Author(s).

  17. The EM Earthquake Precursor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, K. B., II; Saxton, P. T.

    2013-12-01

    Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake, American earthquake investigators predetermined magnetometer use and a minimum earthquake magnitude necessary for EM detection. This action was set in motion, due to the extensive damage incurred and public outrage concerning earthquake forecasting; however, the magnetometers employed, grounded or buried, are completely subject to static and electric fields and have yet to correlate to an identifiable precursor. Secondly, there is neither a networked array for finding any epicentral locations, nor have there been any attempts to find even one. This methodology needs dismissal, because it is overly complicated, subject to continuous change, and provides no response time. As for the minimum magnitude threshold, which was set at M5, this is simply higher than what modern technological advances have gained. Detection can now be achieved at approximately M1, which greatly improves forecasting chances. A propagating precursor has now been detected in both the field and laboratory. Field antenna testing conducted outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013, detected three strong EM sources along with numerous weaker signals. The antenna had mobility, and observations were noted for recurrence, duration, and frequency response. Next, two

  18. The typical seismic behavior in the vicinity of a large earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodkin, M. V.; Tikhonov, I. N.

    2016-10-01

    The Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog (GCMT) was used to construct the spatio-temporal generalized vicinity of a large earthquake (GVLE) and to investigate the behavior of seismicity in GVLE. The vicinity is made of earthquakes falling into the zone of influence of a large number (100, 300, or 1000) of largest earthquakes. The GVLE construction aims at enlarging the available statistics, diminishing a strong random component, and revealing typical features of pre- and post-shock seismic activity in more detail. As a result of the GVLE construction, the character of fore- and aftershock cascades was examined in more detail than was possible without of the use of the GVLE approach. As well, several anomalies in the behavior exhibited by a variety of earthquake parameters were identified. The amplitudes of all these anomalies increase with the approaching time of the generalized large earthquake (GLE) as the logarithm of the time interval from the GLE occurrence. Most of the discussed anomalies agree with common features well expected in the evolution of instability. In addition to these common type precursors, one earthquake-specific precursor was found. The decrease in mean earthquake depth presumably occurring in a smaller GVLE probably provides evidence of a deep fluid being involved in the process. The typical features in the evolution of shear instability as revealed in GVLE agree with results obtained in laboratory studies of acoustic emission (AE). The majority of the anomalies in earthquake parameters appear to have a secondary character, largely connected with an increase in mean magnitude and decreasing fraction of moderate size events (mw5.0-6.0) in the immediate GLE vicinity. This deficit of moderate size events could hardly be caused entirely by their incomplete reporting and can presumably reflect some features in the evolution of seismic instability.

  19. Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  20. Swedish earthquakes and acceleration probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slunga, R.

    1979-03-01

    A method to assign probabilities to ground accelerations for Swedish sites is described. As hardly any nearfield instrumental data is available we are left with the problem of interpreting macroseismic data in terms of acceleration. By theoretical wave propagation computations the relation between seismic strength of the earthquake, focal depth, distance and ground accelerations are calculated. We found that most Swedish earthquake of the area, the 1904 earthquake 100 km south of Oslo, is an exception and probably had a focal depth exceeding 25 km. For the nuclear power plant sites an annual probability of 10 -5 has been proposed as interesting. This probability gives ground accelerations in the range 5-20 % for the sites. This acceleration is for a free bedrock site. For consistency all acceleration results in this study are given for bedrock sites. When applicating our model to the 1904 earthquake and assuming the focal zone to be in the lower crust we get the epicentral acceleration of this earthquake to be 5-15 % g. The results above are based on an analyses of macrosismic data as relevant instrumental data is lacking. However, the macroseismic acceleration model deduced in this study gives epicentral ground acceleration of small Swedish earthquakes in agreement with existent distant instrumental data. (author)

  1. Earthquake Energy Distribution along the Earth Surface and Radius

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varga, P.; Krumm, F.; Riguzzi, F.; Doglioni, C.; Suele, B.; Wang, K.; Panza, G.F.

    2010-07-01

    The global earthquake catalog of seismic events with M W ≥ 7.0, for the time interval from 1950 to 2007, shows that the depth distribution of earthquake energy release is not uniform. The 90% of the total earthquake energy budget is dissipated in the first ∼30km, whereas most of the residual budget is radiated at the lower boundary of the transition zone (410 km - 660 km), above the upper-lower mantle boundary. The upper border of the transition zone at around 410 km of depth is not marked by significant seismic energy release. This points for a non-dominant role of the slabs in the energy budged of plate tectonics. Earthquake number and energy release, although not well correlated, when analysed with respect to the latitude, show a decrease toward the polar areas. Moreover, the radiated energy has the highest peak close to (±5 o ) the so-called tectonic equator defined by Crespi et al. (2007), which is inclined about 30 o with respect to the geographic equator. At the same time the presence of a clear axial co- ordination of the radiated seismic energy is demonstrated with maxima at latitudes close to critical (±45 o ). This speaks about the presence of external forces that influence seismicity and it is consistent with the fact that Gutenberg-Richter law is linear, for events with M>5, only when the whole Earth's seismicity is considered. These data are consistent with an astronomical control on plate tectonics, i.e., the despinning (slowing of the Earth's angular rotation) of the Earth's rotation caused primarily by the tidal friction due to the Moon. The mutual position of the shallow and ∼660 km deep earthquake energy sources along subduction zones allows us to conclude that they are connected with the same slab along the W-directed subduction zones, but they may rather be disconnected along the opposed E-NE-directed slabs, being the deep seismicity controlled by other mechanisms. (author)

  2. Earthquake location in island arcs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engdahl, E.R.; Dewey, J.W.; Fujita, K.

    1982-01-01

    A comprehensive data set of selected teleseismic P-wave arrivals and local-network P- and S-wave arrivals from large earthquakes occurring at all depths within a small section of the central Aleutians is used to examine the general problem of earthquake location in island arcs. Reference hypocenters for this special data set are determined for shallow earthquakes from local-network data and for deep earthquakes from combined local and teleseismic data by joint inversion for structure and location. The high-velocity lithospheric slab beneath the central Aleutians may displace hypocenters that are located using spherically symmetric Earth models; the amount of displacement depends on the position of the earthquakes with respect to the slab and on whether local or teleseismic data are used to locate the earthquakes. Hypocenters for trench and intermediate-depth events appear to be minimally biased by the effects of slab structure on rays to teleseismic stations. However, locations of intermediate-depth events based on only local data are systematically displaced southwards, the magnitude of the displacement being proportional to depth. Shallow-focus events along the main thrust zone, although well located using only local-network data, are severely shifted northwards and deeper, with displacements as large as 50 km, by slab effects on teleseismic travel times. Hypocenters determined by a method that utilizes seismic ray tracing through a three-dimensional velocity model of the subduction zone, derived by thermal modeling, are compared to results obtained by the method of joint hypocenter determination (JHD) that formally assumes a laterally homogeneous velocity model over the source region and treats all raypath anomalies as constant station corrections to the travel-time curve. The ray-tracing method has the theoretical advantage that it accounts for variations in travel-time anomalies within a group of events distributed over a sizable region of a dipping, high

  3. Earthquake activity along the Himalayan orogenic belt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

  4. Statistical eruption forecast for the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: typical probabilities of volcanic eruptions as baseline for possibly enhanced activity following the large 2010 Concepción earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Dzierma

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for ten volcanoes of the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ. Since 70% of the Chilean population lives in this area, the estimation of future eruption likelihood is an important part of hazard assessment. After investigating the completeness and stationarity of the historical eruption time series, the exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic distribution functions are fit to the repose time distributions for the individual volcanoes and the models are evaluated. This procedure has been implemented in two different ways to methodologically compare details in the fitting process. With regard to the probability of at least one VEI ≥ 2 eruption in the next decade, Llaima, Villarrica and Nevados de Chillán are most likely to erupt, while Osorno shows the lowest eruption probability among the volcanoes analysed. In addition to giving a compilation of the statistical eruption forecasts along the historically most active volcanoes of the SVZ, this paper aims to give "typical" eruption probabilities, which may in the future permit to distinguish possibly enhanced activity in the aftermath of the large 2010 Concepción earthquake.

  5. P- and S-wave velocity models incorporating the Cascadia subduction zone for 3D earthquake ground motion simulations—Update for Open-File Report 2007–1348

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, William J.; Reitman, Nadine G.; Angster, Stephen J.

    2017-12-20

    In support of earthquake hazards studies and ground motion simulations in the Pacific Northwest, threedimensional (3D) P- and S-wave velocity (VP and VS , respectively) models incorporating the Cascadia subduction zone were previously developed for the region encompassed from about 40.2°N. to 50°N. latitude, and from about 122°W. to 129°W. longitude (fig. 1). This report describes updates to the Cascadia velocity property volumes of model version 1.3 ([V1.3]; Stephenson, 2007), herein called model version 1.6 (V1.6). As in model V1.3, the updated V1.6 model volume includes depths from 0 kilometers (km) (mean sea level) to 60 km, and it is intended to be a reference for researchers who have used, or are planning to use, this model in their earth science investigations. To this end, it is intended that the VP and VS property volumes of model V1.6 will be considered a template for a community velocity model of the Cascadia region as additional results become available. With the recent and ongoing development of the National Crustal Model (NCM; Boyd and Shah, 2016), we envision any future versions of this model will be directly integrated with that effort

  6. The rupture process of the Manjil, Iran earthquake of 20 june 1990 and implications for intraplate strike-slip earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choy, G.L.; Zednik, J.

    1997-01-01

    In terms of seismically radiated energy or moment release, the earthquake of 20 January 1990 in the Manjil Basin-Alborz Mountain region of Iran is the second largest strike-slip earthquake to have occurred in an intracontinental setting in the past decade. It caused enormous loss of life and the virtual destruction of several cities. Despite a very large meizoseismal area, the identification of the causative faults has been hampered by the lack of reliable earthquake locations and conflicting field reports of surface displacement. Using broadband data from global networks of digitally recording seismographs, we analyse broadband seismic waveforms to derive characteristics of the rupture process. Complexities in waveforms generated by the earthquake indicate that the main shock consisted of a tiny precursory subevent followed in the next 20 seconds by a series of four major subevents with depths ranging from 10 to 15 km. The focal mechanisms of the major subevents, which are predominantly strike-slip, have a common nodal plane striking about 285??-295??. Based on the coincidence of this strike with the dominant tectonic fabric of the region we presume that the EW striking planes are the fault planes. The first major subevent nucleated slightly south of the initial precursor. The second subevent occurred northwest of the initial precursor. The last two subevents moved progressively southeastward of the first subevent in a direction collinear with the predominant strike of the fault planes. The offsets in the relative locations and the temporal delays of the rupture subevents indicate heterogeneous distribution of fracture strength and the involvement of multiple faults. The spatial distribution of teleseismic aftershocks, which at first appears uncorrelated with meizoseismal contours, can be decomposed into stages. The initial activity, being within and on the periphery of the rupture zone, correlates in shape and length with meizoseismal lines. In the second stage

  7. Fault lubrication during earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Toro, G; Han, R; Hirose, T; De Paola, N; Nielsen, S; Mizoguchi, K; Ferri, F; Cocco, M; Shimamoto, T

    2011-03-24

    The determination of rock friction at seismic slip rates (about 1 m s(-1)) is of paramount importance in earthquake mechanics, as fault friction controls the stress drop, the mechanical work and the frictional heat generated during slip. Given the difficulty in determining friction by seismological methods, elucidating constraints are derived from experimental studies. Here we review a large set of published and unpublished experiments (∼300) performed in rotary shear apparatus at slip rates of 0.1-2.6 m s(-1). The experiments indicate a significant decrease in friction (of up to one order of magnitude), which we term fault lubrication, both for cohesive (silicate-built, quartz-built and carbonate-built) rocks and non-cohesive rocks (clay-rich, anhydrite, gypsum and dolomite gouges) typical of crustal seismogenic sources. The available mechanical work and the associated temperature rise in the slipping zone trigger a number of physicochemical processes (gelification, decarbonation and dehydration reactions, melting and so on) whose products are responsible for fault lubrication. The similarity between (1) experimental and natural fault products and (2) mechanical work measures resulting from these laboratory experiments and seismological estimates suggests that it is reasonable to extrapolate experimental data to conditions typical of earthquake nucleation depths (7-15 km). It seems that faults are lubricated during earthquakes, irrespective of the fault rock composition and of the specific weakening mechanism involved.

  8. Earthquake Facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... North Dakota, and Wisconsin. The core of the earth was the first internal structural element to be identified. In 1906 R.D. Oldham discovered it from his studies of earthquake records. The inner core is solid, and the outer core is liquid and so does not transmit ...

  9. Understanding Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Amanda; Gray, Ron

    2018-01-01

    December 26, 2004 was one of the deadliest days in modern history, when a 9.3 magnitude earthquake--the third largest ever recorded--struck off the coast of Sumatra in Indonesia (National Centers for Environmental Information 2014). The massive quake lasted at least 10 minutes and devastated the Indian Ocean. The quake displaced an estimated…

  10. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  11. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  12. Scientists Examine Challenges and Lessons From Japan's Earthquake and Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2011-03-01

    A week after the magnitude 9.0 great Tohoku earthquake and the resulting tragic and damaging tsunami of 11 March struck Japan, the ramifications continued, with a series of major aftershocks (as Eos went to press, there had been about 4 dozen with magnitudes greater than 6); the grim search for missing people—the death toll was expected to approximate 10,000; the urgent assistance needed for the more than 400,000 homeless and the 1 million people without water; and the frantic efforts to avert an environmental catastrophe at Japan's damaged Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, about 225 kilometers northeast of Tokyo, where radiation was leaking. The earthquake offshore of Honshu in northeastern Japan (see Figure 1) was a plate boundary rupture along the Japan Trench subduction zone, with the source area of the earthquake estimated at 400-500 kilometers long with a maximum slip of 20 meters, determined through various means including Global Positioning System (GPS) and seismographic data, according to Kenji Satake, professor at the Earthquake Research Institute of the University of Tokyo. In some places the tsunami may have topped 7 meters—the maximum instrumental measurement at many coastal tide gauges—and some parts of the coastline may have been inundated more than 5 kilometers inland, Satake indicated. The International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) noted that eyewitnesses reported that the highest tsunami waves were 13 meters high. Satake also noted that continuous GPS stations indicate that the coast near Sendai—which is 130 kilometers west of the earthquake and is the largest city in the Tohoku region of Honshu—moved more than 4 meters horizontally and subsided about 0.8 meter.

  13. Investigation of Back-Projection Uncertainties with M6 Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, W.; Shearer, P. M.

    2017-12-01

    We investigate possible biasing effects of inaccurate timing corrections on teleseismic P-wave back-projection imaging of large earthquake ruptures. These errors occur because empirically-estimated time shifts based on aligning P-wave first arrivals are exact only at the hypocenter and provide approximate corrections for other parts of the rupture. Using the Japan subduction zone as a test region, we analyze 46 M6-7 earthquakes over a ten-year period, including many aftershocks of the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake, performing waveform cross-correlation of their initial P-wave arrivals to obtain hypocenter timing corrections to global seismic stations. We then compare back-projection images for each earthquake using its own timing corrections with those obtained using the time corrections for other earthquakes. This provides a measure of how well sub-events can be resolved with back-projection of a large rupture as a function of distance from the hypocenter. Our results show that back-projection is generally very robust and that sub-event location errors average about 20 km across the entire study region ( 700 km). The back-projection coherence loss and location errors do not noticeably converge to zero even when the event pairs are very close (<20 km). This indicates that most of the timing differences are due to 3D structure close to each of the hypocenter regions, which limits the effectiveness of attempts to refine back-projection images using aftershock calibration, at least in this region.

  14. Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Population Estimates, Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP), Alpha Version

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) Urban-Rural Estimates consists of country-level estimates of urban, rural and total population and land area country-wide and...

  15. 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Japan's Nuclear Disaster - Implications for Indian Ocean Rim countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadha, R. K.

    2011-12-01

    The Nuclear disaster in Japan after the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake on March 11, 2011 has elicited global response to have a relook at the safety aspects of the nuclear power plants from all angles including natural hazards like earthquakes and tsunami. Several countries have gone into safety audits of their nuclear programs in view of the experience in Japan. Tectonically speaking, countries located close to subduction zones or in direct line of impact of the subduction zones are the most vulnerable to earthquake or tsunami hazard, as these regions are the locale of great tsunamigenic earthquakes. The Japan disaster has also cautioned to the possibility of great impact to the critical structures along the coasts due to other ocean processes caused by ocean-atmosphere interactions and also due to global warming and sea level rise phenomena in future. This is particular true for island countries. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan will be remembered more because of its nuclear tragedy and tsunami rather than the earthquake itself. The disaster happened as a direct impact of a tsunami generated by the earthquake 130 km off the coast of Sendai in the Honshu region of Japan. The depth of the earthquake was about 25 km below the ocean floor and it occurred on a thrust fault causing a displacement of more than 20 meters. At few places, water is reported to have inundated areas up to 8-10 km inland. The height of the tsunami varied between 10 and 3 meters along the coast. Generally, during an earthquake damage to buildings or other structures occur due to strong shaking which is expressed in the form of ground accelerations 'g'. Although, Peak Ground Accelerations (PGA) consistently exceeded 2g at several places from Sendai down south, structures at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant did not collapse due to the earthquake. In the Indian Ocean Rim countries, Indian, Pakistan and South Africa are the three countries where Nuclear power plants are operational, few of them

  16. Two decades of spatiotemporal variations in subduction zone coupling offshore Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loveless, John P.; Meade, Brendan J.

    2016-02-01

    Spatial patterns of interplate coupling on global subduction zones can be used to guide seismic hazard assessment, but estimates of coupling are often constrained using a limited temporal range of geodetic data. Here we analyze ∼19 years of geodetic observations from the GEONET network to assess time-dependent variations in the spatial distribution of coupling on the subduction zones offshore Japan. We divide the position time series into five, ∼3.75-year epochs each decomposed into best-fit velocity, annual periodic signals, coseismic offsets, and postseismic effects following seven major earthquakes. Nominally interseismic velocities are interpreted in terms of a combination of tectonic block motions and earthquake cycle activity. The duration of the inferred postseismic activity covaries with the linear velocity. To address this trade-off, we assume that the nominally interseismic velocity at each station varies minimally from epoch to epoch. This approach is distinct from prior time-series analysis across the earthquake cycle in that position data are not detrended using preseismic velocity, which inherently assumes that interseismic processes are spatially stable through time, but rather the best-fit velocity at each station may vary between epochs. These velocities reveal significant consistency since 1996 in the spatial distribution of coupling on the Nankai subduction zone, with variation limited primarily to the Tokai and Bungo Channel regions, where long-term slow slip events have occurred, and persistently coupled regions coincident with areas that slipped during historic great earthquakes. On the Sagami subduction zone south of Tokyo, we also estimate relatively stable coupling through time. On the Japan-Kuril Trench, we image significant coupling variations owing to effects of the 1994 MW = 7.7 Sanriku-oki, 2003 MW = 8.2 Tokachi-oki, and 2011 MW = 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquakes. In particular, strong coupling becomes more spatially extensive following

  17. Twitter earthquake detection: earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel C. Bowden

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word “earthquake” clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  18. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  19. Low cost earthquake resistant ferrocement small house

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saleem, M.A.; Ashraf, M.; Ashraf, M.

    2008-01-01

    The greatest humanitarian challenge faced even today after one year of Kashmir Hazara earthquake is that of providing shelter. Currently on the globe one in seven people live in a slum or refugee camp. The earthquake of October 2005 resulted in a great loss of life and property. This research work is mainly focused on developing a design of small size, low cost and earthquake resistant house. Ferrocement panels are recommended as the main structural elements with lightweight truss roofing system. Earthquake resistance is ensured by analyzing the structure on ETABS for a seismic activity of zone 4. The behavior of structure is found satisfactory under the earthquake loading. An estimate of cost is also presented which shows that it is an economical solution. (author)

  20. Earthquake data base for Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rizescu, M.; Ghica, D.; Grecu, B.; Popa, M.; Borcia, I. S.

    2002-01-01

    A new earthquake database for Romania is being constructed, comprising complete earthquake information and being up-to-date, user-friendly and rapidly accessible. One main component of the database consists from the catalog of earthquakes occurred in Romania since 984 up to present. The catalog contains information related to locations and other source parameters, when available, and links to waveforms of important earthquakes. The other very important component is the 'strong motion database', developed for strong intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes where instrumental data were recorded. Different parameters to characterize strong motion properties as: effective peak acceleration, effective peak velocity, corner periods T c and T d , global response spectrum based intensities were computed and recorded into this database. Also, information on the recording seismic stations as: maps giving their positioning, photographs of the instruments and site conditions ('free-field or on buildings) are included. By the huge volume and quality of gathered data, also by its friendly user interface, the Romania earthquake data base provides a very useful tool for geosciences and civil engineering in their effort towards reducing seismic risk in Romania. (authors)

  1. Earthquake Triggering in the September 2017 Mexican Earthquake Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding, E. J.; Gombert, B.; Duputel, Z.; Huang, M. H.; Liang, C.; Bekaert, D. P.; Moore, A. W.; Liu, Z.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Southern Mexico was struck by four earthquakes with Mw > 6 and numerous smaller earthquakes in September 2017, starting with the 8 September Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake beneath the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore Chiapas and Oaxaca. We study whether this M8.2 earthquake triggered the three subsequent large M>6 quakes in southern Mexico to improve understanding of earthquake interactions and time-dependent risk. All four large earthquakes were extensional despite the the subduction of the Cocos plate. The traditional definition of aftershocks: likely an aftershock if it occurs within two rupture lengths of the main shock soon afterwards. Two Mw 6.1 earthquakes, one half an hour after the M8.2 beneath the Tehuantepec gulf and one on 23 September near Ixtepec in Oaxaca, both fit as traditional aftershocks, within 200 km of the main rupture. The 19 September Mw 7.1 Puebla earthquake was 600 km away from the M8.2 shock, outside the standard aftershock zone. Geodetic measurements from interferometric analysis of synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and time-series analysis of GPS station data constrain finite fault total slip models for the M8.2, M7.1, and M6.1 Ixtepec earthquakes. The early M6.1 aftershock was too close in time and space to the M8.2 to measure with InSAR or GPS. We analyzed InSAR data from Copernicus Sentinel-1A and -1B satellites and JAXA ALOS-2 satellite. Our preliminary geodetic slip model for the M8.2 quake shows significant slip extended > 150 km NW from the hypocenter, longer than slip in the v1 finite-fault model (FFM) from teleseismic waveforms posted by G. Hayes at USGS NEIC. Our slip model for the M7.1 earthquake is similar to the v2 NEIC FFM. Interferograms for the M6.1 Ixtepec quake confirm the shallow depth in the upper-plate crust and show centroid is about 30 km SW of the NEIC epicenter, a significant NEIC location bias, but consistent with cluster relocations (E. Bergman, pers. comm.) and with Mexican SSN location. Coulomb static stress

  2. Slow Earthquake Hunters: A New Citizen Science Project to Identify and Catalog Slow Slip Events in Geodetic Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlow, N. M.

    2017-12-01

    Slow Earthquake Hunters is a new citizen science project to detect, catalog, and monitor slow slip events. Slow slip events, also called "slow earthquakes", occur when faults slip too slowly to generate significant seismic radiation. They typically take between a few days and over a year to occur, and are most often found on subduction zone plate interfaces. While not dangerous in and of themselves, recent evidence suggests that monitoring slow slip events is important for earthquake hazards, as slow slip events have been known to trigger damaging "regular" earthquakes. Slow slip events, because they do not radiate seismically, are detected with a variety of methods, most commonly continuous geodetic Global Positioning System (GPS) stations. There is now a wealth of GPS data in some regions that experience slow slip events, but a reliable automated method to detect them in GPS data remains elusive. This project aims to recruit human users to view GPS time series data, with some post-processing to highlight slow slip signals, and flag slow slip events for further analysis by the scientific team. Slow Earthquake Hunters will begin with data from the Cascadia subduction zone, where geodetically detectable slow slip events with a duration of at least a few days recur at regular intervals. The project will then expand to other areas with slow slip events or other transient geodetic signals, including other subduction zones, and areas with strike-slip faults. This project has not yet rolled out to the public, and is in a beta testing phase. This presentation will show results from an initial pilot group of student participants at the University of Missouri, and solicit feedback for the future of Slow Earthquake Hunters.

  3. A Bayesian method to quantify azimuthal anisotropy model uncertainties: application to global azimuthal anisotropy in the upper mantle and transition zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, K.; Beghein, C.

    2018-04-01

    Seismic anisotropy is a powerful tool to constrain mantle deformation, but its existence in the deep upper mantle and topmost lower mantle is still uncertain. Recent results from higher mode Rayleigh waves have, however, revealed the presence of 1 per cent azimuthal anisotropy between 300 and 800 km depth, and changes in azimuthal anisotropy across the mantle transition zone boundaries. This has important consequences for our understanding of mantle convection patterns and deformation of deep mantle material. Here, we propose a Bayesian method to model depth variations in azimuthal anisotropy and to obtain quantitative uncertainties on the fast seismic direction and anisotropy amplitude from phase velocity dispersion maps. We applied this new method to existing global fundamental and higher mode Rayleigh wave phase velocity maps to assess the likelihood of azimuthal anisotropy in the deep upper mantle and to determine whether previously detected changes in anisotropy at the transition zone boundaries are robustly constrained by those data. Our results confirm that deep upper-mantle azimuthal anisotropy is favoured and well constrained by the higher mode data employed. The fast seismic directions are in agreement with our previously published model. The data favour a model characterized, on average, by changes in azimuthal anisotropy at the top and bottom of the transition zone. However, this change in fast axes is not a global feature as there are regions of the model where the azimuthal anisotropy direction is unlikely to change across depths in the deep upper mantle. We were, however, unable to detect any clear pattern or connection with surface tectonics. Future studies will be needed to further improve the lateral resolution of this type of model at transition zone depths.

  4. Identified EM Earthquake Precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kenneth, II; Saxton, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After a number of custom rock experiments, two hypotheses were formed which could answer the EM wave model. The first hypothesis concerned a sufficient and continuous electron movement either by surface or penetrative flow, and the second regarded a novel approach to radio transmission. Electron flow along fracture surfaces was determined to be inadequate in creating strong EM fields, because rock has a very high electrical resistance making it a high quality insulator. Penetrative flow could not be corroborated as well, because it was discovered that rock was absorbing and confining electrons to a very thin skin depth. Radio wave transmission and detection worked with every single test administered. This hypothesis was reviewed for propagating, long-wave generation with sufficient amplitude, and the capability of penetrating solid rock. Additionally, fracture spaces, either air or ion-filled, can facilitate this concept from great depths and allow for surficial detection. A few propagating precursor signals have been detected in the field occurring with associated phases using custom-built loop antennae. Field testing was conducted in Southern California from 2006-2011, and outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013. The antennae have mobility and observations were noted for

  5. Stress regimes in the northwest of Iran from stress inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afra, Mahsa; Moradi, Ali; Pakzad, Mehrdad

    2017-11-01

    Northwestern Iran is one of the seismically active regions with a high seismic risk in the world. This area is a part of the complex tectonic system due to the interaction between Arabia, Anatolia and Eurasia. The purpose of this study is to deduce the stress regimes in the northwestern Iran and surrounding regions from stress inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms. We compile 92 focal mechanisms data from the Global CMT catalogue and other sources and also determine the focal mechanisms of 14 earthquakes applying the moment tensor inversion. We divide the studied region into 9 zones using similarity of the horizontal GPS velocities and existing focal mechanisms. We implement two stress inversion methods, Multiple Inverse Method and Iterative Joint Inversion Method, which provide comparable results in terms of orientations of maximum horizontal stress axes SHmax. The similar results of the two methods should make us more confident about the interpretations. We consider zones of exclusion surrounding all the earthquakes according to independent focal mechanisms hypothesis. The hypothesis says that the inversion should involve events that are far enough from each other in order that any previous event doesn't affect the stress field near the earthquake under consideration. Accordingly we deal with the matter by considering zones of exclusion around all the events. The result of exclusion is only significant for eastern Anatolia. The stress regime in this region changes from oblique to strike slip faulting because of the exclusion. In eastern Anatolia, the direction of maximum horizontal stress is nearly north-south. The direction alters to east-west in Talesh region. Errors of σ1 are lower in all zones comparing with errors of σ2 and σ3 and there is a trade-off between data resolution and covariance of the model. The results substantiate the strike-slip and thrust faulting stress regimes in the northwest of Iran.

  6. Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Pei-Yang Lin

    2011-01-01

    Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...

  7. ROSSBY WAVE INSTABILITY AT DEAD ZONE BOUNDARIES IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL RESISTIVE MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICAL GLOBAL MODELS OF PROTOPLANETARY DISKS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyra, Wladimir; Mac Low, Mordecai-Mark

    2012-01-01

    It has been suggested that the transition between magnetorotationally active and dead zones in protoplanetary disks should be prone to the excitation of vortices via Rossby wave instability (RWI). However, the only numerical evidence for this has come from alpha disk models, where the magnetic field evolution is not followed, and the effect of turbulence is parameterized by Laplacian viscosity. We aim to establish the phenomenology of the flow in the transition in three-dimensional resistive-magnetohydrodynamical models. We model the transition by a sharp jump in resistivity, as expected in the inner dead zone boundary, using the PENCIL CODE to simulate the flow. We find that vortices are readily excited in the dead side of the transition. We measure the mass accretion rate finding similar levels of Reynolds stress at the dead and active zones, at the α ≈ 10 –2 level. The vortex sits in a pressure maximum and does not migrate, surviving until the end of the simulation. A pressure maximum in the active zone also triggers the RWI. The magnetized vortex that results should be disrupted by parasitical magneto-elliptic instabilities, yet it subsists in high resolution. This suggests that either the parasitic modes are still numerically damped or that the RWI supplies vorticity faster than they can destroy it. We conclude that the resistive transition between the active and dead zones in the inner regions of protoplanetary disks, if sharp enough, can indeed excite vortices via RWI. Our results lend credence to previous works that relied on the alpha-disk approximation, and caution against the use of overly reduced azimuthal coverage on modeling this transition.

  8. Earthquake Hazard Analysis Methods: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, A. M.; Fakhrurrozi, A.

    2018-02-01

    One of natural disasters that have significantly impacted on risks and damage is an earthquake. World countries such as China, Japan, and Indonesia are countries located on the active movement of continental plates with more frequent earthquake occurrence compared to other countries. Several methods of earthquake hazard analysis have been done, for example by analyzing seismic zone and earthquake hazard micro-zonation, by using Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (N-DSHA) method, and by using Remote Sensing. In its application, it is necessary to review the effectiveness of each technique in advance. Considering the efficiency of time and the accuracy of data, remote sensing is used as a reference to the assess earthquake hazard accurately and quickly as it only takes a limited time required in the right decision-making shortly after the disaster. Exposed areas and possibly vulnerable areas due to earthquake hazards can be easily analyzed using remote sensing. Technological developments in remote sensing such as GeoEye-1 provide added value and excellence in the use of remote sensing as one of the methods in the assessment of earthquake risk and damage. Furthermore, the use of this technique is expected to be considered in designing policies for disaster management in particular and can reduce the risk of natural disasters such as earthquakes in Indonesia.

  9. The most oligotrophic subtropical zones of the global ocean: similarities and differences in terms of chlorophyll and yellow substance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morel, A.; Claustre, H.; Gentili, B.

    2010-10-01

    The cores of the subtropical anticyclonic gyres are characterized by their oligotrophic status and minimal chlorophyll concentration, compared to that of the whole ocean. These zones are unambiguously detected by space borne ocean color sensors thanks to their typical spectral reflectance, which is that of extremely clear and deep blue waters. Not only the low chlorophyll (denoted [Chl]) level, but also a reduced amount of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM or "yellow substance") account for this clarity. The oligotrophic waters of the North and South Pacific gyres, the North and South Atlantic gyres, and the South Indian gyre have been comparatively studied with respect to both [Chl] and CDOM contents, by using 10-year data (1998-2007) of the Sea-viewing Wide field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS, NASA). Albeit similar these oligotrophic zones are not identical regarding their [Chl] and CDOM contents, as well as their seasonal cycles. According to the zone, the averaged [Chl] value varies from 0.026 to 0.059 mg m-3, whereas the ay(443) average (the absorption coefficient due to CDOM at 443 nm) is between 0.0033 and 0.0072 m-1. The CDOM-to-[Chl] relative proportions also differ between the zones. The clearest waters, corresponding to the lowest [Chl] and CDOM concentrations, are found near Easter Island and near Mariana Islands in the western part of the North Pacific Ocean. In spite of its low [Chl], the Sargasso Sea presents the highest CDOM content amongst the six zones studied. Except in the North Pacific gyre (near Mariana and south of Hawaii islands), a conspicuous seasonality appears to be the rule in the other 4 gyres and affects both [Chl] and CDOM; both quantities vary in a ratio of about 2 (maximum-to-minimum). Coinciding [Chl] and CDOM peaks occur just after the local winter solstice, which is also the period of the maximal mixed layer depth in these latitudes. It is hypothesized that the vertical transport of unbleached CDOM from the subthermocline layers

  10. A Decade of Giant Earthquakes - What does it mean?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallace, Terry C. Jr. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-07-16

    On December 26, 2004 the largest earthquake since 1964 occurred near Ache, Indonesia. The magnitude 9.2 earthquake and subsequent tsunami killed a quarter of million people; it also marked the being of a period of extraordinary seismicity. Since the Ache earthquake there have been 16 magnitude 8 earthquakes globally, including 2 this last April. For the 100 years previous to 2004 there was an average of 1 magnitude 8 earthquake every 2.2 years; since 2004 there has been 2 per year. Since magnitude 8 earthquakes dominate global seismic energy release, this period of seismicity has seismologist rethinking what they understand about plate tectonics and the connectivity between giant earthquakes. This talk will explore this remarkable period of time and its possible implications.

  11. Marmara Island earthquakes, of 1265 and 1935; Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Altınok

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The long-term seismicity of the Marmara Sea region in northwestern Turkey is relatively well-recorded. Some large and some of the smaller events are clearly associated with fault zones known to be seismically active, which have distinct morphological expressions and have generated damaging earthquakes before and later. Some less common and moderate size earthquakes have occurred in the vicinity of the Marmara Islands in the west Marmara Sea. This paper presents an extended summary of the most important earthquakes that have occurred in 1265 and 1935 and have since been known as the Marmara Island earthquakes. The informative data and the approaches used have therefore the potential of documenting earthquake ruptures of fault segments and may extend the records kept on earthquakes far before known history, rock falls and abnormal sea waves observed during these events, thus improving hazard evaluations and the fundamental understanding of the process of an earthquake.

  12. Waveform through the subducted plate under the Tokyo region in Japan observed by a ultra-dense seismic network (MeSO-net) and seismic activity around mega-thrust earthquakes area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nanjo, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Tsuruoka, H.; Morita, Y.; Kato, A.; Iidaka, T.; Hirata, N.; Tanada, T.; Obara, K.; Sekine, S.; Kurashimo, E.

    2009-12-01

    In central Japan, the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducts beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan area, the Kanto region, where it causes mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater earthquake in this region at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates the next great earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (1 trillion US$) economic loss. This great earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. We had started the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan area (2007-2012). Under this project, the construction of the Metropolitan Seismic Observation network (MeSO-net) that consists of about 400 observation sites was started [Kasahara et al., 2008; Nakagawa et al., 2008]. Now, we had 178 observation sites. The correlation of the wave is high because the observation point is deployed at about 2 km intervals, and the identification of the later phase is recognized easily thought artificial noise is very large. We also discuss the relation between a deformation of PSP and intra-plate M7+ earthquakes: the PSP is subducting beneath the Honshu arc and also colliding with the Pacific plate. The subduction and collision both contribute active seismicity in the Kanto region. We are going to present a high resolution tomographic image to show low velocity zone which suggests a possible internal failure of the plate; a source region of the M7+ intra-plate earthquake. Our study will contribute a new assessment of the seismic hazard at the Metropolitan area in Japan. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by the Earthquake Research Institute cooperative research program.

  13. The most oligotrophic subtropical zones of the global ocean: similarities and differences in terms of chlorophyll and yellow substance

    OpenAIRE

    A. Morel; H. Claustre; B. Gentili

    2010-01-01

    The cores of the subtropical anticyclonic gyres are characterized by their oligotrophic status and minimal chlorophyll concentration, compared to that of the whole ocean. These zones are unambiguously detected by space borne ocean color sensors thanks to their typical spectral reflectance, which is that of extremely clear and deep blue waters. Not only the low chlorophyll (denoted [Chl]) level, but also a reduced amount of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM or "yellow substance") account ...

  14. The most oligotrophic subtropical zones of the global ocean: similarities and differences in terms of chlorophyll and yellow substance

    OpenAIRE

    Morel, A.; Claustre, H.; Gentili, B.

    2010-01-01

    The cores of the subtropical anticyclonic gyres are characterized by their oligotrophic status and minimal chlorophyll concentration, compared to that of the whole ocean. These zones are unambiguously detected by space borne ocean color sensors thanks to their typical spectral reflectance, which is that of extremely clear and deep blue waters. Not only the low chlorophyll (denoted [Chl]) level, but also a reduced amount of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM or "yellow substance") acc...

  15. Distribution of incremental static stress caused by earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Y. Kagan

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available Theoretical calculations, simulations and measurements of rotation of earthquake focal mechanisms suggest that the stress in earthquake focal zones follows the Cauchy distribution which is one of the stable probability distributions (with the value of the exponent α equal to 1. We review the properties of the stable distributions and show that the Cauchy distribution is expected to approximate the stress caused by earthquakes occurring over geologically long intervals of a fault zone development. However, the stress caused by recent earthquakes recorded in instrumental catalogues, should follow symmetric stable distributions with the value of α significantly less than one. This is explained by a fractal distribution of earthquake hypocentres: the dimension of a hypocentre set, ��, is close to zero for short-term earthquake catalogues and asymptotically approaches 2¼ for long-time intervals. We use the Harvard catalogue of seismic moment tensor solutions to investigate the distribution of incremental static stress caused by earthquakes. The stress measured in the focal zone of each event is approximated by stable distributions. In agreement with theoretical considerations, the exponent value of the distribution approaches zero as the time span of an earthquake catalogue (ΔT decreases. For large stress values α increases. We surmise that it is caused by the δ increase for small inter-earthquake distances due to location errors.

  16. Chilean megathrust earthquake recurrence linked to frictional contrast at depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, M.; Li, S.; Melnick, D.; Bedford, J. R.; Baez, J. C.; Motagh, M.; Metzger, S.; Vajedian, S.; Sippl, C.; Gutknecht, B. D.; Contreras-Reyes, E.; Deng, Z.; Tassara, A.; Oncken, O.

    2018-04-01

    Fundamental processes of the seismic cycle in subduction zones, including those controlling the recurrence and size of great earthquakes, are still poorly understood. Here, by studying the 2016 earthquake in southern Chile—the first large event within the rupture zone of the 1960 earthquake (moment magnitude (Mw) = 9.5)—we show that the frictional zonation of the plate interface fault at depth mechanically controls the timing of more frequent, moderate-size deep events (Mw shallow earthquakes (Mw > 8.5). We model the evolution of stress build-up for a seismogenic zone with heterogeneous friction to examine the link between the 2016 and 1960 earthquakes. Our results suggest that the deeper segments of the seismogenic megathrust are weaker and interseismically loaded by a more strongly coupled, shallower asperity. Deeper segments fail earlier ( 60 yr recurrence), producing moderate-size events that precede the failure of the shallower region, which fails in a great earthquake (recurrence >110 yr). We interpret the contrasting frictional strength and lag time between deeper and shallower earthquakes to be controlled by variations in pore fluid pressure. Our integrated analysis strengthens understanding of the mechanics and timing of great megathrust earthquakes, and therefore could aid in the seismic hazard assessment of other subduction zones.

  17. The 1985 central chile earthquake: a repeat of previous great earthquakes in the region?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comte, D; Eisenberg, A; Lorca, E; Pardo, M; Ponce, L; Saragoni, R; Singh, S K; Suárez, G

    1986-07-25

    A great earthquake (surface-wave magnitude, 7.8) occurred along the coast of central Chile on 3 March 1985, causing heavy damage to coastal towns. Intense foreshock activity near the epicenter of the main shock occurred for 11 days before the earthquake. The aftershocks of the 1985 earthquake define a rupture area of 170 by 110 square kilometers. The earthquake was forecast on the basis of the nearly constant repeat time (83 +/- 9 years) of great earthquakes in this region. An analysis of previous earthquakes suggests that the rupture lengths of great shocks in the region vary by a factor of about 3. The nearly constant repeat time and variable rupture lengths cannot be reconciled with time- or slip-predictable models of earthquake recurrence. The great earthquakes in the region seem to involve a variable rupture mode and yet, for unknown reasons, remain periodic. Historical data suggest that the region south of the 1985 rupture zone should now be considered a gap of high seismic potential that may rupture in a great earthquake in the next few tens of years.

  18. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  19. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  20. Fault failure with moderate earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, M. J. S.; Linde, A. T.; Gladwin, M. T.; Borcherdt, R. D.

    1987-12-01

    High resolution strain and tilt recordings were made in the near-field of, and prior to, the May 1983 Coalinga earthquake ( ML = 6.7, Δ = 51 km), the August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills earthquake ( ML = 5.5, Δ = 34 km), the April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake ( ML = 6.1, Δ = 55 km), the November 1984 Round Valley earthquake ( ML = 5.8, Δ = 54 km), the January 14, 1978, Izu, Japan earthquake ( ML = 7.0, Δ = 28 km), and several other smaller magnitude earthquakes. These recordings were made with near-surface instruments (resolution 10 -8), with borehole dilatometers (resolution 10 -10) and a 3-component borehole strainmeter (resolution 10 -9). While observed coseismic offsets are generally in good agreement with expectations from elastic dislocation theory, and while post-seismic deformation continued, in some cases, with a moment comparable to that of the main shock, preseismic strain or tilt perturbations from hours to seconds (or less) before the main shock are not apparent above the present resolution. Precursory slip for these events, if any occurred, must have had a moment less than a few percent of that of the main event. To the extent that these records reflect general fault behavior, the strong constraint on the size and amount of slip triggering major rupture makes prediction of the onset times and final magnitudes of the rupture zones a difficult task unless the instruments are fortuitously installed near the rupture initiation point. These data are best explained by an inhomogeneous failure model for which various areas of the fault plane have either different stress-slip constitutive laws or spatially varying constitutive parameters. Other work on seismic waveform analysis and synthetic waveforms indicates that the rupturing process is inhomogeneous and controlled by points of higher strength. These models indicate that rupture initiation occurs at smaller regions of higher strength which, when broken, allow runaway catastrophic failure.

  1. Effects in Morocco of the Lisboa earthquake 1 November 1755

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levret, A.

    1988-05-01

    Within the framework of a cooperative agreement Sofratome/Office National d'Electricite of Morocco and Sofratome/Electricidade de Portugal, a study has been conducted as to the effects of the November 1, 1755 Lisbon earthquake in Morocco. This event, the effects of which have been described at length in Portugal, was likewise strongly felt in Morocco, especially on the Atlantic coast, which was laid waste not only through the direct agency of seismic waves, but also through that of a formidable tsunami. In old texts, the descriptions of these conjugate effects has been rendered with varying degrees of overstatement. The procedure adopted in order to arrive at a precise identification of the effects and their origin and an evaluation of intensity involves three stages: a) an assessment of the reliability of the documents used; b) a thoroughgoing analysis of the descriptions with the object of discriminating between the direct effects of the earthquake and those ascribable to the action of the tidal wave: c) a readjustment of the intensities by analysis of the global effects of the earthquake not only in Morocco but also in Portugal and Spain. Then a comparison of these with the well- documented effects of the recent, February 28, 1969 earthquake, originating at the same source. Extrapolated isoseismals for the effects in Morocco of the 1755 event derived from this study are then assigned. In the light of current knowledge concerning the historical seismicity of the Iberian African collision zone, an outline of the maximum observed intensities is proposed [fr

  2. The most oligotrophic subtropical zones of the global ocean: similarities and differences in terms of chlorophyll and yellow substance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Morel

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The cores of the subtropical anticyclonic gyres are characterized by their oligotrophic status and minimal chlorophyll concentration, compared to that of the whole ocean. These zones are unambiguously detected by space borne ocean color sensors thanks to their typical spectral reflectance, which is that of extremely clear and deep blue waters. Not only the low chlorophyll (denoted [Chl] level, but also a reduced amount of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM or "yellow substance" account for this clarity. The oligotrophic waters of the North and South Pacific gyres, the North and South Atlantic gyres, and the South Indian gyre have been comparatively studied with respect to both [Chl] and CDOM contents, by using 10-year data (1998–2007 of the Sea-viewing Wide field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS, NASA. Albeit similar these oligotrophic zones are not identical regarding their [Chl] and CDOM contents, as well as their seasonal cycles. According to the zone, the averaged [Chl] value varies from 0.026 to 0.059 mg m−3, whereas the ay(443 average (the absorption coefficient due to CDOM at 443 nm is between 0.0033 and 0.0072 m−1. The CDOM-to-[Chl] relative proportions also differ between the zones. The clearest waters, corresponding to the lowest [Chl] and CDOM concentrations, are found near Easter Island and near Mariana Islands in the western part of the North Pacific Ocean. In spite of its low [Chl], the Sargasso Sea presents the highest CDOM content amongst the six zones studied. Except in the North Pacific gyre (near Mariana and south of Hawaii islands, a conspicuous seasonality appears to be the rule in the other 4 gyres and affects both [Chl] and CDOM; both quantities vary in a ratio of about 2 (maximum-to-minimum. Coinciding [Chl] and CDOM peaks occur just after the local winter solstice, which is also the period of the maximal mixed layer depth in these latitudes. It is hypothesized that the vertical

  3. Megathrust earthquakes in Central Chile: What is next after the Maule 2010 earthquake?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madariaga, R.

    2013-05-01

    The 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake occurred in a well identified gap in the Chilean subduction zone. The event has now been studied in detail using both far-field, near field seismic and geodetic data, we will review this information gathered so far. The event broke a region that was much longer along strike than the gap left over from the 1835 Concepcion earthquake, sometimes called the Darwin earthquake because he was in the area when the earthquake occurred and made many observations. Recent studies of contemporary documents by Udias et al indicate that the area broken by the Maule earthquake in 2010 had previously broken by a similar earthquake in 1751, but several events in the magnitude 8 range occurred in the area principally in 1835 already mentioned and, more recently on 1 December 1928 to the North and on 21 May 1960 (1 1/2 days before the big Chilean earthquake of 1960). Currently the area of the 2010 earthquake and the region immediately to the North is undergoing a very large increase in seismicity with numerous clusters of seismicity that move along the plate interface. Examination of the seismicity of Chile of the 18th and 19th century show that the region immediately to the North of the 2010 earthquake broke in a very large megathrust event in July 1730. this is the largest known earthquake in central Chile. The region where this event occurred has broken in many occasions with M 8 range earthquakes in 1822, 1880, 1906, 1971 and 1985. Is it preparing for a new very large megathrust event? The 1906 earthquake of Mw 8.3 filled the central part of the gap but it has broken again on several occasions in 1971, 1973 and 1985. The main question is whether the 1906 earthquake relieved enough stresses from the 1730 rupture zone. Geodetic data shows that most of the region that broke in 1730 is currently almost fully locked from the northern end of the Maule earthquake at 34.5°S to 30°S, near the southern end of the of the Mw 8.5 Atacama earthquake of 11

  4. NRIAG's Effort to Mitigate Earthquake Disasters in Egypt Using GPS and Seismic Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, Salah

    It has been estimated that, during historical time more than 50 million people have lost their lives in earthquakes during ground shaking, such as soil amplification and/or liquefaction, landslides and tsunamis or its immediate aftereffects, as fires. The distribution of population takes generally no account of earthquake risk, at least on a large scale. An earthquake may be large but not destructive, on the other hand, an earthquake may be destructive but not large. The absence of correlation is due to the fact that, great number of other factors entering into consideration: first of all, the location of the earthquake in relation to populated areas, also soil conditions and building constructions. Soil liquefaction has been identified as the underlying phenomenon for many ground failures, settlements and lateral spreads, which are a major cause of damage to soil structures and building foundations in many events. Egypt is suffered a numerous of destructive earthquakes as well as Kalabsha earthquake (1981, Mag 5.4) near Aswan city and the High dam, Dahshour earthquake (1992, Mag 5.9) near Cairo city and Aqaba earthquake (1995, Mag 7.2). As the category of earthquake damage includes all the phenomena related to the direct and indirect damages, the Egyptian authorities do a great effort to mitigate the earthquake disasters. The seismicity especially at the zones of high activity is investigated in details in order to obtain the active source zones not only by the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) but also by the local seismic networks at, Aswan, Hurghada, Aqaba, Abu Dabbab and Dabbaa. On the other hand the soil condition, soil amplification, soil structure interaction, liquefaction and seismic hazard are carried out in particular the urbanized areas and the region near the source zones. All these parameters are integrated to obtain the Egyptian building code which is valid to construct buildings resist damages and consequently mitigate the earthquake

  5. Joint inversion of GNSS and teleseismic data for the rupture process of the 2017 M w6.5 Jiuzhaigou, China, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qi; Tan, Kai; Wang, Dong Zhen; Zhao, Bin; Zhang, Rui; Li, Yu; Qi, Yu Jie

    2018-05-01

    The spatio-temporal slip distribution of the earthquake that occurred on 8 August 2017 in Jiuzhaigou, China, was estimated from the teleseismic body wave and near-field Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data (coseismic displacements and high-rate GPS data) based on a finite fault model. Compared with the inversion results from the teleseismic body waves, the near-field GNSS data can better restrain the rupture area, the maximum slip, the source time function, and the surface rupture. The results show that the maximum slip of the earthquake approaches 1.4 m, the scalar seismic moment is 8.0 × 1018 N·m ( M w ≈ 6.5), and the centroid depth is 15 km. The slip is mainly driven by the left-lateral strike-slip and it is initially inferred that the seismogenic fault occurs in the south branch of the Tazang fault or an undetectable fault, a NW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault, and belongs to one of the tail structures at the easternmost end of the eastern Kunlun fault zone. The earthquake rupture is mainly concentrated at depths of 5-15 km, which results in the complete rupture of the seismic gap left by the previous four earthquakes with magnitudes > 6.0 in 1973 and 1976. Therefore, the possibility of a strong aftershock on the Huya fault is low. The source duration is 30 s and there are two major ruptures. The main rupture occurs in the first 10 s, 4 s after the earthquake; the second rupture peak arrives in 17 s. In addition, the Coulomb stress study shows that the epicenter of the earthquake is located in the area where the static Coulomb stress change increased because of the 12 May 2017 M w7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. Therefore, the Wenchuan earthquake promoted the occurrence of the 8 August 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake.

  6. Formation of mantle "lone plumes" in the global downwelling zone - A multiscale modelling of subduction-controlled plume generation beneath the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Nan; Li, Zheng-Xiang

    2018-01-01

    It has been established that almost all known mantle plumes since the Mesozoic formed above the two lower mantle large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs). The Hainan plume is one of the rare exceptions in that instead of rising above the LLSVPs, it is located within the broad global mantle downwelling zone, therefore classified as a "lone plume". Here, we use the Hainan plume example to investigate the feasibility of such lone plumes being generated by subducting slabs in the mantle downwelling zone using 3D geodynamic modelling. Our geodynamic model has a high-resolution regional domain embedded in a relatively low resolution global domain, which is set up in an adaptive-mesh-refined, 3D mantle convection code ASPECT (Advanced Solver for Problems in Earth's ConvecTion). We use a recently published plate motion model to define the top mechanical boundary condition. Our modelling results suggest that cold slabs under the present-day Eurasia, formed from the Mesozoic subduction and closure of the Tethys oceans, have prevented deep mantle hot materials from moving to the South China Sea from regions north or west of the South China Sea. From the east side, the Western Pacific subduction systems started to promote the formation of a lower-mantle thermal-chemical pile in the vicinity of the future South China Sea region since 70 Ma ago. As the top of this lower-mantle thermal-chemical pile rises, it first moved to the west, and finally rested beneath the South China Sea. The presence of a thermochemical layer (possible the D″ layer) in the model helps stabilizing the plume root. Our modelling is the first implementation of multi-scale mesh in the regional model. It has been proved to be an effective way of modelling regional dynamics within a global plate motion and mantle dynamics background.

  7. Earthquake engineering development before and after the March 4, 1977, Vrancea, Romania earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgescu, E.-S.

    2002-01-01

    At 25 years since the of the Vrancea earthquake of March, 4th 1977, we can analyze in an open and critical way its impact on the evolution of earthquake engineering codes and protection policies in Romania. The earthquake (M G-R = 7.2; M w = 7.5), produced 1,570 casualties and more than 11,300 injured persons (90% of the victims in Bucharest), seismic losses were estimated at more then USD 2 billions. The 1977 earthquake represented a significant episode of XXth century in seismic zones of Romania and neighboring countries. The INCERC seismic record of March 4, 1977 put, for the first time, in evidence the spectral content of long period seismic motions of Vrancea earthquakes, the duration, the number of cycles and values of actual accelerations, with important effects of overloading upon flexible structures. The seismic coefficients k s , the spectral curve (the dynamic coefficient β r ) and the seismic zonation map, the requirements in the antiseismic design norms were drastically, changed while the microzonation maps of the time ceased to be used, and the specific Vrancea earthquake recurrence was reconsidered based on hazard studies Thus, the paper emphasises: - the existing engineering knowledge, earthquake code and zoning maps requirements until 1977 as well as seismology and structural lessons since 1977; - recent aspects of implementing of the Earthquake Code P.100/1992 and harmonization with Eurocodes, in conjunction with the specific of urban and rural seismic risk and enforcing policies on strengthening of existing buildings; - a strategic view of disaster prevention, using earthquake scenarios and loss assessments, insurance, earthquake education and training; - the need of a closer transfer of knowledge between seismologists, engineers and officials in charge with disaster prevention public policies. (author)

  8. Normal Faulting in the 1923 Berdún Earthquake and Postorogenic Extension in the Pyrenees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stich, Daniel; Martín, Rosa; Batlló, Josep; Macià, Ramón; Mancilla, Flor de Lis; Morales, Jose

    2018-04-01

    The 10 July 1923 earthquake near Berdún (Spain) is the largest instrumentally recorded event in the Pyrenees. We recover old analog seismograms and use 20 hand-digitized waveforms for regional moment tensor inversion. We estimate moment magnitude Mw 5.4, centroid depth of 8 km, and a pure normal faulting source with strike parallel to the mountain chain (N292°E), dip of 66° and rake of -88°. The new mechanism fits into the general predominance of normal faulting in the Pyrenees and extension inferred from Global Positioning System data. The unique location of the 1923 earthquake, near the south Pyrenean thrust front, shows that the extensional regime is not confined to the axial zone where high topography and the crustal root are located. Together with seismicity near the northern mountain front, this indicates that gravitational potential energy in the western Pyrenees is not extracted locally but induces a wide distribution of postorogenic deformation.

  9. Interseismic Coupling-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Scenarios for the Nankai Trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranes, H.; Woodruff, J. D.; Loveless, J. P.; Hyodo, M.

    2018-04-01

    Theoretical modeling and investigations of recent subduction zone earthquakes show that geodetic estimates of interseismic coupling and the spatial distribution of coseismic rupture are correlated. However, the utility of contemporary coupling in guiding construction of rupture scenarios has not been evaluated on the world's most hazardous faults. Here we demonstrate methods for scaling coupling to slip to create rupture models for southwestern Japan's Nankai Trough. Results show that coupling-based models produce distributions of ground surface deformation and tsunami inundation that are similar to historical and geologic records of the largest known Nankai earthquake in CE 1707 and to an independent, quasi-dynamic rupture model. Notably, these models and records all support focused subsidence around western Shikoku that makes the region particularly vulnerable to flooding. Results imply that contemporary coupling mirrors the slip distribution of a full-margin, 1707-type rupture, and Global Positioning System measurements of surface motion are connected with the trough's physical characteristics.

  10. Is earthquake rate in south Iceland modified by seasonal loading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonsson, S.; Aoki, Y.; Drouin, V.

    2017-12-01

    Several temporarily varying processes have the potential of modifying the rate of earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone, one of the two most active seismic zones in Iceland. These include solid earth tides, seasonal meteorological effects and influence from passing weather systems, and variations in snow and glacier loads. In this study we investigate the influence these processes may have on crustal stresses and stressing rates in the seismic zone and assess whether they appear to be influencing the earthquake rate. While historical earthquakes in the south Iceland have preferentially occurred in early summer, this tendency is less clear for small earthquakes. The local earthquake catalogue (going back to 1991, magnitude of completeness M6+ earthquakes, which occurred in June 2000 and May 2008. Standard Reasenberg earthquake declustering or more involved model independent stochastic declustering algorithms are not capable of fully eliminating the aftershocks from the catalogue. We therefore inspected the catalogue for the time period before 2000 and it shows limited seasonal tendency in earthquake occurrence. Our preliminary results show no clear correlation between earthquake rates and short-term stressing variations induced from solid earth tides or passing storms. Seasonal meteorological effects also appear to be too small to influence the earthquake activity. Snow and glacier load variations induce significant vertical motions in the area with peak loading occurring in Spring (April-May) and maximum unloading in Fall (Sept.-Oct.). Early summer occurrence of historical earthquakes therefore correlates with early unloading rather than with the peak unloading or unloading rate, which appears to indicate limited influence of this seasonal process on the earthquake activity.

  11. Seismicity map tools for earthquake studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucouvalas, Anthony; Kaskebes, Athanasios; Tselikas, Nikos

    2014-05-01

    We report on the development of new and online set of tools for use within Google Maps, for earthquake research. We demonstrate this server based and online platform (developped with PHP, Javascript, MySQL) with the new tools using a database system with earthquake data. The platform allows us to carry out statistical and deterministic analysis on earthquake data use of Google Maps and plot various seismicity graphs. The tool box has been extended to draw on the map line segments, multiple straight lines horizontally and vertically as well as multiple circles, including geodesic lines. The application is demonstrated using localized seismic data from the geographic region of Greece as well as other global earthquake data. The application also offers regional segmentation (NxN) which allows the studying earthquake clustering, and earthquake cluster shift within the segments in space. The platform offers many filters such for plotting selected magnitude ranges or time periods. The plotting facility allows statistically based plots such as cumulative earthquake magnitude plots and earthquake magnitude histograms, calculation of 'b' etc. What is novel for the platform is the additional deterministic tools. Using the newly developed horizontal and vertical line and circle tools we have studied the spatial distribution trends of many earthquakes and we here show for the first time the link between Fibonacci Numbers and spatiotemporal location of some earthquakes. The new tools are valuable for examining visualizing trends in earthquake research as it allows calculation of statistics as well as deterministic precursors. We plan to show many new results based on our newly developed platform.

  12. New geological perspectives on earthquake recurrence models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, D.P.

    1997-01-01

    In most areas of the world the record of historical seismicity is too short or uncertain to accurately characterize the future distribution of earthquakes of different sizes in time and space. Most faults have not ruptured once, let alone repeatedly. Ultimately, the ability to correctly forecast the magnitude, location, and probability of future earthquakes depends on how well one can quantify the past behavior of earthquake sources. Paleoseismological trenching of active faults, historical surface ruptures, liquefaction features, and shaking-induced ground deformation structures provides fundamental information on the past behavior of earthquake sources. These studies quantify (a) the timing of individual past earthquakes and fault slip rates, which lead to estimates of recurrence intervals and the development of recurrence models and (b) the amount of displacement during individual events, which allows estimates of the sizes of past earthquakes on a fault. When timing and slip per event are combined with information on fault zone geometry and structure, models that define individual rupture segments can be developed. Paleoseismicity data, in the form of timing and size of past events, provide a window into the driving mechanism of the earthquake engine--the cycle of stress build-up and release

  13. Earthquake geology of the Bulnay Fault (Mongolia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizza, Magali; Ritz, Jean-Franciois; Prentice, Carol S.; Vassallo, Ricardo; Braucher, Regis; Larroque, Christophe; Arzhannikova, A.; Arzhanikov, S.; Mahan, Shannon; Massault, M.; Michelot, J-L.; Todbileg, M.

    2015-01-01

    The Bulnay earthquake of July 23, 1905 (Mw 8.3-8.5), in north-central Mongolia, is one of the world's largest recorded intracontinental earthquakes and one of four great earthquakes that occurred in the region during the 20th century. The 375-km-long surface rupture of the left-lateral, strike-slip, N095°E trending Bulnay Fault associated with this earthquake is remarkable for its pronounced expression across the landscape and for the size of features produced by previous earthquakes. Our field observations suggest that in many areas the width and geometry of the rupture zone is the result of repeated earthquakes; however, in those areas where it is possible to determine that the geomorphic features are the result of the 1905 surface rupture alone, the size of the features produced by this single earthquake are singular in comparison to most other historical strike-slip surface ruptures worldwide. Along the 80 km stretch, between 97.18°E and 98.33°E, the fault zone is characterized by several meters width and the mean left-lateral 1905 offset is 8.9 ± 0.6 m with two measured cumulative offsets that are twice the 1905 slip. These observations suggest that the displacement produced during the penultimate event was similar to the 1905 slip. Morphotectonic analyses carried out at three sites along the eastern part of the Bulnay fault, allow us to estimate a mean horizontal slip rate of 3.1 ± 1.7 mm/yr over the Late Pleistocene-Holocene period. In parallel, paleoseismological investigations show evidence for two earthquakes prior to the 1905 event with recurrence intervals of ~2700-4000 years.

  14. Coulomb stress transfer and tectonic loading preceding the 2002 Denali fault earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bufe, Charles G.

    2006-01-01

    Pre-2002 tectonic loading and Coulomb stress transfer are modeled along the rupture zone of the M 7.9 Denali fault earthquake (DFE) and on adjacent segments of the right-lateral Denali–Totschunda fault system in central Alaska, using a three-dimensional boundary-element program. The segments modeled closely follow, for about 95°, the arc of a circle of radius 375 km centered on an inferred asperity near the northeastern end of the intersection of the Patton Bay fault with the Alaskan megathrust under Prince William Sound. The loading model includes slip of 6 mm/yr below 12 km along the fault system, consistent with rotation of the Wrangell block about the asperity at a rate of about 1°/m.y. as well as slip of the Pacific plate at 5 cm/yr at depth along the Fairweather–Queen Charlotte transform fault system and on the Alaska megathrust. The model is consistent with most available pre-2002 Global Positioning System (GPS) displacement rate data. Coulomb stresses induced on the Denali–Totschunda fault system (locked above 12 km) by slip at depth and by transfer from the M 9.2 Prince William Sound earthquake of 1964 dominated the changing Coulomb stress distribution along the fault. The combination of loading (∼70–85%) and coseismic stress transfer from the great 1964 earthquake (∼15–30%) were the principal post-1900 stress factors building toward strike-slip failure of the northern Denali and Totschunda segments in the M 7.9 earthquake of November 2002. Postseismic stresses transferred from the 1964 earthquake may also have been a significant factor. The M 7.2–7.4 Delta River earthquake of 1912 (Carver et al., 2004) may have delayed or advanced the timing of the DFE, depending on the details and location of its rupture. The initial subevent of the 2002 DFE earthquake was on the 40-km Susitna Glacier thrust fault at the western end of the Denali fault rupture. The Coulomb stress transferred from the 1964 earthquake moved the Susitna Glacier thrust

  15. Crustal structure and fault geometry of the 2010 Haiti earthquake from temporary seismometer deployments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douilly, Roby; Haase, Jennifer S.; Ellsworth, William L.; Bouin, Marie‐Paule; Calais, Eric; Symithe, Steeve J.; Armbruster, John G.; Mercier de Lépinay, Bernard; Deschamps, Anne; Mildor, Saint‐Louis; Meremonte, Mark E.; Hough, Susan E.

    2013-01-01

    Haiti has been the locus of a number of large and damaging historical earthquakes. The recent 12 January 2010 Mw 7.0 earthquake affected cities that were largely unprepared, which resulted in tremendous losses. It was initially assumed that the earthquake ruptured the Enriquillo Plantain Garden fault (EPGF), a major active structure in southern Haiti, known from geodetic measurements and its geomorphic expression to be capable of producing M 7 or larger earthquakes. Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data, however, showed that the event ruptured a previously unmapped fault, the Léogâne fault, a north‐dipping oblique transpressional fault located immediately north of the EPGF. Following the earthquake, several groups installed temporary seismic stations to record aftershocks, including ocean‐bottom seismometers on either side of the EPGF. We use data from the complete set of stations deployed after the event, on land and offshore, to relocate all aftershocks from 10 February to 24 June 2010, determine a 1D regional crustal velocity model, and calculate focal mechanisms. The aftershock locations from the combined dataset clearly delineate the Léogâne fault, with a geometry close to that inferred from geodetic data. Its strike and dip closely agree with the global centroid moment tensor solution of the mainshock but with a steeper dip than inferred from previous finite fault inversions. The aftershocks also delineate a structure with shallower southward dip offshore and to the west of the rupture zone, which could indicate triggered seismicity on the offshore Trois Baies reverse fault. We use first‐motion focal mechanisms to clarify the relationship of the fault geometry to the triggered aftershocks.

  16. Implication of conjugate faulting in the earthquake brewing and originating process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, L.M. (Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge); Deng, Q.; Jiang, P.

    1980-03-01

    The earthquake sequence, precursory and geologo-structural background of the Haicheng, Tangshan, Songpan-Pingwu earthquakes are discussed in this article. All of these earthquakes occurred in a seismic zone controlled by the main boundary faults of an intraplate fault block. However, the fault plane of a main earthquake does not consist of the same faults, but is rather a related secondary fault. They formed altogether a conjugate shearing rupture zone under the action of a regional tectonic stress field. As to the earthquake sequence, the foreshocks and aftershocks might occur on the conjugate fault planes within an epicentral region rather than be limited to the fault plane of a main earthquake, such as the distribution of foreshocks and aftershocks of the Haicheng earthquake. The characteristics of the long-, medium-, and imminent-term earthquake precursory anomalies of the three mentioned earthquakes, especially the character of well-studies anomaly phenomena in electrical resistivity, radon emission, groundwater and animal behavior, have been investigated. The studies of these earthquake precursors show that they were distributed in an area rather more extensive than the epicentral region. Some fault zones in the conjugate fault network usually appeared as distributed belts or concentrated zones of earthquake precursory anomalies, and can be traced in the medium-long term precursory field, but seem more distinct in the short-imminent term precursory anomalous field. These characteristics can be explained by the rupture and sliding originating along the conjugate shear network and the concentration of stress in the regional stress field.

  17. Tsunamigenic earthquake simulations using experimentally derived friction laws

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, S.; Di Toro, G.; Romano, F.; Scala, A.; Lorito, S.; Spagnuolo, E.; Aretusini, S.; Festa, G.; Piatanesi, A.; Nielsen, S.

    2018-03-01

    Seismological, tsunami and geodetic observations have shown that subduction zones are complex systems where the properties of earthquake rupture vary with depth as a result of different pre-stress and frictional conditions. A wealth of earthquakes of different sizes and different source features (e.g. rupture duration) can be generated in subduction zones, including tsunami earthquakes, some of which can produce extreme tsunamigenic events. Here, we offer a geological perspective principally accounting for depth-dependent frictional conditions, while adopting a simplified distribution of on-fault tectonic pre-stress. We combine a lithology-controlled, depth-dependent experimental friction law with 2D elastodynamic rupture simulations for a Tohoku-like subduction zone cross-section. Subduction zone fault rocks are dominantly incohesive and clay-rich near the surface, transitioning to cohesive and more crystalline at depth. By randomly shifting along fault dip the location of the high shear stress regions ("asperities"), moderate to great thrust earthquakes and tsunami earthquakes are produced that are quite consistent with seismological, geodetic, and tsunami observations. As an effect of depth-dependent friction in our model, slip is confined to the high stress asperity at depth; near the surface rupture is impeded by the rock-clay transition constraining slip to the clay-rich layer. However, when the high stress asperity is located in the clay-to-crystalline rock transition, great thrust earthquakes can be generated similar to the Mw 9 Tohoku (2011) earthquake.

  18. Global hydromagnetic simulations of a planet embedded in a dead zone: Gap opening, gas accretion, and formation of a protoplanetary jet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gressel, O. [NORDITA, KTH Royal Institute of Technology and Stockholm University, Roslagstullsbacken 23, SE-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden); Nelson, R. P. [Astronomy Unit, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS (United Kingdom); Turner, N. J. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Ziegler, U., E-mail: oliver.gressel@nordita.org, E-mail: r.p.nelson@qmul.ac.uk, E-mail: neal.j.turner@jpl.nasa.gov, E-mail: uziegler@aip.de [Leibniz-Institut für Astrophysik Potsdam (AIP), An der Sternwarte 16, D-14482, Potsdam (Germany)

    2013-12-10

    We present global hydrodynamic (HD) and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations with mesh refinement of accreting planets embedded in protoplanetary disks (PPDs). The magnetized disk includes Ohmic resistivity that depends on the overlying mass column, leading to turbulent surface layers and a dead zone near the midplane. The main results are: (1) the accretion flow in the Hill sphere is intrinsically three-dimensional for HD and MHD models. Net inflow toward the planet is dominated by high-latitude flows. A circumplanetary disk (CPD) forms. Its midplane flows outward in a pattern whose details differ between models. (2) The opening of a gap magnetically couples and ignites the dead zone near the planet, leading to stochastic accretion, a quasi-turbulent flow in the Hill sphere, and a CPD whose structure displays high levels of variability. (3) Advection of magnetized gas onto the rotating CPD generates helical fields that launch magnetocentrifugally driven outflows. During one specific epoch, a highly collimated, one-sided jet is observed. (4) The CPD's surface density is ∼30 g cm{sup −2}, small enough for significant ionization and turbulence to develop. (5) The accretion rate onto the planet in the MHD simulation reaches a steady value 8 × 10{sup –3} M {sub ⊕} yr{sup –1} and is similar in the viscous HD runs. Our results suggest that gas accretion onto a forming giant planet within a magnetized PPD with a dead zone allows rapid growth from Saturnian to Jovian masses. As well as being relevant for giant planet formation, these results have important implications for the formation of regular satellites around gas giant planets.

  19. Modelling guided waves in the Alaskan-Aleutian subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulson, Sophie; Garth, Thomas; Reitbrock, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Subduction zone guided wave arrivals from intermediate depth earthquakes (70-300 km depth) have a huge potential to tell us about the velocity structure of the subducting oceanic crust as it dehydrates at these depths. We see guided waves as the oceanic crust has a slower seismic velocity than the surrounding material, and so high frequency energy is retained and delayed in the crustal material. Lower frequency energy is not retained in this crustal waveguide and so travels at faster velocities of the surrounding material. This gives a unique observation at the surface with low frequency energy arriving before the higher frequencies. We constrain this guided wave dispersion by comparing the waveforms recorded in real subduction zones with simulated waveforms, produced using finite difference full waveform modelling techniques. This method has been used to show that hydrated minerals in the oceanic crust persist to much greater depths than accepted thermal petrological subduction zone models would suggest in Northern Japan (Garth & Rietbrock, 2014a), and South America (Garth & Rietbrock, in prep). These observations also suggest that the subducting oceanic mantle may be highly hydrated at intermediate depth by dipping normal faults (Garth & Rietbrock 2014b). We use this guided wave analysis technique to constrain the velocity structure of the down going ~45 Ma Pacific plate beneath Alaska. Dispersion analysis is primarily carried out on guided wave arrivals recorded on the Alaskan regional seismic network. Earthquake locations from global earthquake catalogues (ISC and PDE) and regional earthquake locations from the AEIC (Alaskan Earthquake Information Centre) catalogue are used to constrain the slab geometry and to identify potentially dispersive events. Dispersed arrivals are seen at stations close to the trench, with high frequency (>2 Hz) arrivals delayed by 2 - 4 seconds. This dispersion is analysed to constrain the velocity and width of the proposed waveguide

  20. Magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes in relation to seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, R.D.

    1989-01-01

    Estimating the frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitudes on a regional basis is an important task in estimating seismic risk at a construction site. Analysis of global earthquake data provides an insight into the magnitudes frequency relationship in a statistical manner. It turns out that, whereas a linear relationship between the logarithm of earthquake occurrence rates and the corresponding earthquake magnitudes fits well in the magnitude range between 5 and 7, a second degree polynomial in M, the earthquake magnitude provides a better description of the frequencies of earthquakes in a much wider range of magnitudes. It may be possible to adopt magnitude frequency relation for regions, for which adequate earthquake data are not available, to carry out seismic risk calculations. (author). 32 refs., 8 tabs., 7 figs

  1. Incorporating fault zone head wave and direct wave secondary arrival times into seismic tomography: Application at Parkfield, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennington, Ninfa L.; Thurber, Clifford; Peng, Zhigang; Zhang, Haijiang; Zhao, Peng

    2013-03-01

    We present a three-dimensional (3D) P wave velocity (Vp) model of the Parkfield region that utilizes existing P wave arrival time data, including fault zone head waves (FZHWs), and data from direct wave secondary arrivals (DWSAs). The first-arrival and DWSA travel times are obtained as the global- and local-minimum travel time paths, respectively. The inclusion of FZHWs and DWSAs results in as much as a 5% and a 10% increase in the across-fault velocity contrast, respectively, for the Vp model at Parkfield relative to that of Thurber et al. [2006]. Viewed along strike, three pronounced velocity contrast regions are observed: a pair of strong positive velocity contrasts (SW fast), one NW of the 1966 Parkfield earthquake hypocenter and the other SE of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake hypocenter, and a strong negative velocity contrast (NE fast) between the two hypocenters. The negative velocity contrast partially to entirely encompasses peak coseismic slip estimated in several slip models for the 2004 earthquake, suggesting that the negative velocity contrast played a part in defining the rupture patch of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. Following Ampuero and Ben-Zion (2008), the pattern of velocity contrasts is consistent with the observed bilateral rupture propagation for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. Although the velocity contrasts also suggest bilateral rupture propagation for the 1966 Parkfield earthquake, the fault is creeping to the NW here, i.e., exhibiting velocity-strengthening behavior. Thus, it is not surprising that rupture propagated only SE during this event.

  2. The Great Maule earthquake: seismicity prior to and after the main shock from amphibious seismic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieser, K.; Arroyo, I. G.; Grevemeyer, I.; Flueh, E. R.; Lange, D.; Tilmann, F. J.

    2013-12-01

    The Chilean subduction zone is among the seismically most active plate boundaries in the world and its coastal ranges suffer from a magnitude 8 or larger megathrust earthquake every 10-20 years. The Constitución-Concepción or Maule segment in central Chile between ~35.5°S and 37°S was considered to be a mature seismic gap, rupturing last in 1835 and being seismically quiet without any magnitude 4.5 or larger earthquakes reported in global catalogues. It is located to the north of the nucleation area of the 1960 magnitude 9.5 Valdivia earthquake and to the south of the 1928 magnitude 8 Talca earthquake. On 27 February 2010 this segment ruptured in a Mw=8.8 earthquake, nucleating near 36°S and affecting a 500-600 km long segment of the margin between 34°S and 38.5°S. Aftershocks occurred along a roughly 600 km long portion of the central Chilean margin, most of them offshore. Therefore, a network of 30 ocean-bottom-seismometers was deployed in the northern portion of the rupture area for a three month period, recording local offshore aftershocks between 20 September 2010 and 25 December 2010. In addition, data of a network consisting of 33 landstations of the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam were included into the network, providing an ideal coverage of both the rupture plane and areas affected by post-seismic slip as deduced from geodetic data. Aftershock locations are based on automatically detected P wave onsets and a 2.5D velocity model of the combined on- and offshore network. Aftershock seismicity analysis in the northern part of the survey area reveals a well resolved seismically active splay fault in the accretionary prism of the Chilean forearc. Our findings imply that in the northernmost part of the rupture zone, co-seismic slip most likely propagated along the splay fault and not the subduction thrust fault. In addition, the updip limit of aftershocks along the plate interface can be verified to about 40 km landwards from the deformation front. Prior to

  3. Deeper penetration of large earthquakes on seismically quiescent faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Junle; Lapusta, Nadia

    2016-06-10

    Why many major strike-slip faults known to have had large earthquakes are silent in the interseismic period is a long-standing enigma. One would expect small earthquakes to occur at least at the bottom of the seismogenic zone, where deeper aseismic deformation concentrates loading. We suggest that the absence of such concentrated microseismicity indicates deep rupture past the seismogenic zone in previous large earthquakes. We support this conclusion with numerical simulations of fault behavior and observations of recent major events. Our modeling implies that the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California penetrated below the seismogenic zone by at least 3 to 5 kilometers. Our findings suggest that such deeper ruptures may occur on other major fault segments, potentially increasing the associated seismic hazard. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  4. An ongoing earthquake sequence near Dhaka, Bangladesh, from regional recordings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, M.; Mondal, D. R.; Akhter, S. H.; Kim, W.; Seeber, L.; Steckler, M. S.

    2013-12-01

    of this population to earthquakes is amplified by poor infrastructure and building codes. The only event in this sequence included in the global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog is a Mw 5.1 strike-slip event 18 km deep. At least 10 events in this sequence have been recorded globally (ISC). Many more events from the sequence have been recorded by a regional array of seismographs we have operated in Bangladesh since 2007. We apply several techniques to these data to explore source parameters and dimensions of seismogenesis in this sequence. We present both double-difference relocations and waveform modeling, which provide constraints on the source characteristics. Using the Mw 5.1 and other regional events as calibration, we obtain source parameters for several other events in the sequence. This sequence is ideal for double-difference relocation techniques because the source-receiver paths of the events in the sequence, recorded regionally, are very similar. The event relocation enables us to obtain accurate estimates of fault dimensions of this source. By combining accurate spatial dimensions of the source, the depth range of seismogenesis for the source zone, and well-constrained source parameters of events within the sequence, it we assess the maximum size of possible ruptures in this source.

  5. Studies of earthquakes stress drops, seismic scattering, and dynamic triggering in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escudero Ayala, Christian Rene

    at 1.5, 3, 5, 7.5, 10.5, and 13.5 Hz. Coda Q present a great correlation with tectonic and geology setting, as well as the crustal thickness. I analyze global and Middle American Subduction Zone (MASZ) seismicity from 1998 to 2008 to quantify the transient stresses effects at teleseismic distances. I use the Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre Catalog (ISCCD) published by the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS). To identify MASZ seismicity changes due to distant, large (Mw ¿ 7) earthquakes, I first identify local earthquakes that occurred before and after the mainshocks. I then group the local earthquakes within a cluster radius between 75 to 200 km. I obtain statistics based on characteristics of both mainshocks and local earthquakes clusters, such as cluster-mainshock azimuth, mainshock focal mechanism, and local earthquakes clusters within the MASZ. Based on the lateral variations of the dip along the subducted oceanic plate, I divide the Mexican subduction zone into four segments. I then apply the Paired Samples Statistical Test (PSST) to the sorted data to identify increment, decrement or either in the local seismicity associated with distant large earthquakes passage of surface waves. I identify dynamic triggering for all MASZ segments produced by large earthquakes emerging from specific azimuths, as well as, a decrease for some cases. I find no dependence of seismicity changes on mainshock focal mechanism.

  6. Possible influence of long-term sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific on global zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Komhyr, W D; Oltmans, S J; Grass, R D [Atmospheric Administration Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab., Boulder, CO (USA); Leonard, R K [Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (USA)

    1991-01-01

    A significant negative correlation exists between summer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east equatorial Pacific and late-October south pole total ozone values. SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific were anomalously warmer during 1976-1987 compared with 1962-1975. QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) easterly winds in the equatorial Pacific stratosphere were generally stronger after 1975. Before the early-to-mid 1970s the trend in global ozone was generally upward, but then turned downward. Total ozone at Hawaii and Samoa, which had been decreasing during 1976-1987, showed recovery to mid-1970s values in 1988-1989 following a drop in SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific to low values last observed there prior to 1976. During late October 1988, total south pole ozone, which had decreased from ca 280 Dobson units (DU) before 1980 to 140 DU in 1987, suddenly recovered to 250 DU, though substantial ozone depletion by heterogeneous photochemical processes involving polar stratospheric clouds was still evident in the south pole ozone vertical profiles. These observations suggest that the downward trend in ozone observed over the globe in recent years may have been at least partly meteorologically induced, possibly via modulation by the warmer tropical Pacific ocean waters of QBO easterly winds at the equator, of Hadley Cell circulation, or other factors. A cursory analysis of geostrophic wind flow around the Baffin Island low suggests a meteorological influence on the observed downward trend in ozone over North America during the past decade. Because ozone has a lifetime that varies from years to minutes, changes in atmospheric dynamics have a potential to not only redistribute ozone over the globe but also to change global ozone abundance. 47 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  7. Validation of the global model for 90SR migration from the waste burial in the Chernobyl exclusion zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dewiere, L.; Bugai, D.; Kashparov, V.; Barthes, V.

    2004-01-01

    The Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) has managed (1999-2003) the Chernobyl Pilot Site Project (CPS project) in collaboration with the Ukrainian Institute of Agricultural Radiology (UIAR), the Institute of Geological Sciences (IGS) and the Tracer Application Section (CEA/SAT). The special focus of the CPS project was environmental behavior and radionuclide release mechanisms from dispersed nuclear fuel particles, forming radionuclide migration source-term. So, the contaminated environment was used as an open-sky laboratory to develop site characterization techniques, better understand and model processes of radionuclides migration in soils and geological environment. The CPS project resulted in detailed characterization of site geology structure, hydrogeology regime, hydro-dispersion regime in the aquifer and unsaturated zone, radionuclide inventory and distribution in trench no.22, focused at 137 Cs and 90 Sr. The special research program using scanning electron microscopy and sequential extraction analytical techniques was devoted to characterization of fuel particles and quantification of their dissolution behavior. It was established that Chernobyl radionuclides are associated with uranium oxide matrix particles of different degree of oxidation, characterized by different dissolution rates, as well as with non-dissolvable zirconium containing matrix particles. The multi-component fuel particles dissolution model with empirical dissolution rate constants was developed to describe the source-term. The methodology for radionuclide transport was based on application of the classical advection-diffusion equation and utilization of effective transport parameters. The developed so far modeling methodology is mostly suited for producing spatially averaged parameter values (such as radionuclide concentrations in trench porous solution, and/or integral radionuclide release to aquifer), and for long-term predictions on a scale of years and

  8. Contrastive research of ionospheric precursor anomalies between Calbuco volcanic eruption on April 23 and Nepal earthquake on April 25, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wang; Guo, Jinyun; Yue, Jianping; Yang, Yang; Li, Zhen; Lu, Deikai

    2016-05-01

    On April 23, 2015, the VEI4 (volcanic explosive index) Calbuco volcano abruptly erupted in Chile and the Mw7.9 Nepal earthquake occurred on April 25. In order to investigate the similarities and differences between total electron content (TEC) anomalies preceding these two types of geophysical activities, the TEC time series over preparation zones before the volcanic eruption and earthquake extracted from global ionosphere map were analyzed. We used sunspot numbers (SSN), Bz, Dst, and Kp indices to represent the solar-terrestrial environment and eliminate the effects of solar and geomagnetic activities on ionosphere by the sliding interquartile range method with the 27-day window. The results indicate that TEC-negative and -positive anomalies appeared in the 14th and 6th day before the eruption, respectively. The anomalies lasted about 4-6 h with a magnitude of 15-20 TECU. The TEC anomalies were also observed on the 14th and 6th day before the Nepal earthquake with a duration of 6-8 h, and the absolute magnitude of TEC anomalies was within 12-20 TECU. These findings indicate that the magnitude of TEC anomalies preceding volcanic eruption was larger, and the duration of TEC anomalies before the earthquake was longer, which may be associated with their particular physical mechanisms. The TEC anomalies before the Nepal earthquake in the Eastern hemisphere occurred in the afternoon local time, but those before the eruption were observed in the night local time. Peak regions of TEC anomalies did not coincide with the epicenters of geophysical activities, and the TEC anomalies also appeared in the magnetic conjugated region. Both the TEC anomalies in the preparation zone and conjugated region were distributed near the boundaries of equatorial anomaly zone and moved along the boundaries. In the moving process, sometimes the extent or magnitude of TEC anomalies in the conjugated region was larger than that in the preparation zone. Many more GPS stations and receivers

  9. Solar eruptions - soil radon - earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saghatelyan, E.; Petrosyan, L.; Aghbalyan, Yu.; Baburyan, M.; Araratyan, L.

    2004-01-01

    For the first time a new natural phenomenon was established: a contrasting increase in the soil radon level under the influence of solar flares. Such an increase is one of geochemical indicators of earthquakes. Most researchers consider this a phenomenon of exclusively terrestrial processes. Investigations regarding the link of earthquakes to solar activity carried out during the last decade in different countries are based on the analysis of statistical data ΣΕ (t) and W (t). As established, the overall seismicity of the Earth and its separate regions depends of an 11-year long cycle of solar activity. Data provided in the paper based on experimental studies serve the first step on the way of experimental data on revealing cause-and-reason solar-terrestrials bonds in a series s olar eruption-lithosphere radon-earthquakes . They need further collection of experimental data. For the first time, through radon constituent of terrestrial radiation objectification has been made of elementary lattice of the Hartmann's network contoured out by bio location method. As found out, radon concentration variations in Hartmann's network nodes determine the dynamics of solar-terrestrial relationships. Of the three types of rapidly running processes conditioned by solar-terrestrial bonds earthquakes are attributed to rapidly running destructive processes that occur in the most intense way at the juncture of tectonic massifs, along transformed and deep failures. The basic factors provoking the earthquakes are both magnetic-structural effects and a long-term (over 5 months) bombing of the surface of lithosphere by highly energetic particles of corpuscular solar flows, this being approved by photometry. As a result of solar flares that occurred from 29 October to 4 November 2003, a sharply contrasting increase in soil radon was established which is an earthquake indicator on the territory of Yerevan City. A month and a half later, earthquakes occurred in San-Francisco, Iran, Turkey

  10. Foreshock occurrence before large earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reasenberg, P.A.

    1999-01-01

    Rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured in two worldwide catalogs over ???20-year intervals. The overall rates observed are similar to ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California. The aftershock model was extended to the case of moderate foreshocks preceding large mainshocks. Overall, the observed worldwide foreshock rates exceed the extended California generic model by a factor of ???2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events, a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, had a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, had a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have found low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggests the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich. If this is so, then the California generic model may significantly underestimate the conditional probability for a very large (M ??? 8) earthquake following a potential (M ??? 7) foreshock in Cascadia. The magnitude differences among the identified foreshock-mainshock pairs in the Harvard catalog are consistent with a uniform

  11. Earthquakes: hydrogeochemical precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.

  12. Ground water and earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ts' ai, T H

    1977-11-01

    Chinese folk wisdom has long seen a relationship between ground water and earthquakes. Before an earthquake there is often an unusual change in the ground water level and volume of flow. Changes in the amount of particulate matter in ground water as well as changes in color, bubbling, gas emission, and noises and geysers are also often observed before earthquakes. Analysis of these features can help predict earthquakes. Other factors unrelated to earthquakes can cause some of these changes, too. As a first step it is necessary to find sites which are sensitive to changes in ground stress to be used as sensor points for predicting earthquakes. The necessary features are described. Recording of seismic waves of earthquake aftershocks is also an important part of earthquake predictions.

  13. Afterslip, tremor, and the Denali fault earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, Joan; Prejean, Stephanie; Ruppert, Natalia

    2012-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that afterslip should be accompanied by tremor using observations of seismic and aseismic deformation surrounding the 2002 M 7.9 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake (DFE). Afterslip happens more frequently than spontaneous slow slip and has been observed in a wider range of tectonic environments, and thus the existence or absence of tremor accompanying afterslip may provide new clues about tremor generation. We also searched for precursory tremor, as a proxy for posited accelerating slip leading to rupture. Our search yielded no tremor during the five days prior to the DFE or in several intervals in the three months after. This negative result and an array of other observations all may be explained by rupture penetrating below the presumed locked zone into the frictional transition zone. While not unique, such an explanation corroborates previous models of megathrust and transform earthquake ruptures that extend well into the transition zone.

  14. Smartphone MEMS accelerometers and earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Q.; Allen, R. M.; Schreier, L.; Kwon, Y. W.

    2015-12-01

    The low cost MEMS accelerometers in the smartphones are attracting more and more attentions from the science community due to the vast number and potential applications in various areas. We are using the accelerometers inside the smartphones to detect the earthquakes. We did shake table tests to show these accelerometers are also suitable to record large shakings caused by earthquakes. We developed an android app - MyShake, which can even distinguish earthquake movements from daily human activities from the recordings recorded by the accelerometers in personal smartphones and upload trigger information/waveform to our server for further analysis. The data from these smartphones forms a unique datasets for seismological applications, such as earthquake early warning. In this talk I will layout the method we used to recognize earthquake-like movement from single smartphone, and the overview of the whole system that harness the information from a network of smartphones for rapid earthquake detection. This type of system can be easily deployed and scaled up around the global and provides additional insights of the earthquake hazards.

  15. Permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity controlled by earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodsky, E. E.; Fulton, P. M.; Xue, L.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquakes can increase permeability in fractured rocks. In the farfield, such permeability increases are attributed to seismic waves and can last for months after the initial earthquake. Laboratory studies suggest that unclogging of fractures by the transient flow driven by seismic waves is a viable mechanism. These dynamic permeability increases may contribute to permeability enhancement in the seismic clouds accompanying hydraulic fracking. Permeability enhancement by seismic waves could potentially be engineered and the experiments suggest the process will be most effective at a preferred frequency. We have recently observed similar processes inside active fault zones after major earthquakes. A borehole observatory in the fault that generated the M9.0 2011 Tohoku earthquake reveals a sequence of temperature pulses during the secondary aftershock sequence of an M7.3 aftershock. The pulses are attributed to fluid advection by a flow through a zone of transiently increased permeability. Directly after the M7.3 earthquake, the newly damaged fault zone is highly susceptible to further permeability enhancement, but ultimately heals within a month and becomes no longer as sensitive. The observation suggests that the newly damaged fault zone is more prone to fluid pulsing than would be expected based on the long-term permeability structure. Even longer term healing is seen inside the fault zone of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The competition between damage and healing (or clogging and unclogging) results in dynamically controlled permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity. Recent measurements of in situ fault zone architecture at the 1-10 meter scale suggest that active fault zones often have hydraulic diffusivities near 10-2 m2/s. This uniformity is true even within the damage zone of the San Andreas fault where permeability and storage increases balance each other to achieve this value of diffusivity over a 400 m wide region. We speculate that fault zones

  16. A seismotectonic study of the 21 May 2014 Bay of Bengal intraplate earthquake: Evidence of onshore-offshore tectonic linkage and fracture zone reactivation in the northern Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, G.S.; Radhakrishna, M.; Murthy, K.S.R.

    of the earthquake is located at a water depth of 2.5 km where the sediment thickness is nearly 12 km, and it occurs at a depth of ~50 km within the upper mantle. Its location on the seismotectonic map of the region shows that the epicenter is far from...

  17. Ionospheric earthquake precursors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulachenko, A.L.; Oraevskij, V.N.; Pokhotelov, O.A.; Sorokin, V.N.; Strakhov, V.N.; Chmyrev, V.M.

    1996-01-01

    Results of experimental study on ionospheric earthquake precursors, program development on processes in the earthquake focus and physical mechanisms of formation of various type precursors are considered. Composition of experimental cosmic system for earthquake precursors monitoring is determined. 36 refs., 5 figs

  18. Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, Canan Lacin

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

  19. Critical behavior in earthquake energy dissipation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanliss, James; Muñoz, Víctor; Pastén, Denisse; Toledo, Benjamín; Valdivia, Juan Alejandro

    2017-09-01

    We explore bursty multiscale energy dissipation from earthquakes flanked by latitudes 29° S and 35.5° S, and longitudes 69.501° W and 73.944° W (in the Chilean central zone). Our work compares the predictions of a theory of nonequilibrium phase transitions with nonstandard statistical signatures of earthquake complex scaling behaviors. For temporal scales less than 84 hours, time development of earthquake radiated energy activity follows an algebraic arrangement consistent with estimates from the theory of nonequilibrium phase transitions. There are no characteristic scales for probability distributions of sizes and lifetimes of the activity bursts in the scaling region. The power-law exponents describing the probability distributions suggest that the main energy dissipation takes place due to largest bursts of activity, such as major earthquakes, as opposed to smaller activations which contribute less significantly though they have greater relative occurrence. The results obtained provide statistical evidence that earthquake energy dissipation mechanisms are essentially "scale-free", displaying statistical and dynamical self-similarity. Our results provide some evidence that earthquake radiated energy and directed percolation belong to a similar universality class.

  20. Numerical Simulation of a Non-volcanic Hydrothermal System Caused by Formation of a High Permeability Fracture Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oka, Daisuke; Ehara, Sachio; Fujimitsu, Yasuhiro

    2010-05-01

    Because in the Japanese islands the earth crust activity is very active, a disposal stratum for high-level radioactive waste produced by reprocessing the spent nuclear fuel from nuclear power plants will be selected in the tectonically stable areas in which the waste can be disposed underground safely for a long term and there is no influence of earthquakes, seismic activities, volcanic activities, upheaval, sedimentation, erosion, climate and global sea level change and so on, which causes the risk of the inflow of the groundwater to destroy the disposal site or the outflow to the ground surface. However, even if the disposal stratum in such condition will be chosen, in case that a new high permeability fracture zone is formed by the earthquake, and a new hydrothermal system may be formed for a long term (thousands or millions years) and the system may affect the disposal site. Therefore, we have to understand the feature of the non-volcanic hydrothermal system through the high permeability fracture zone. We estimated such influence by using HYDROTHERM Ver2.2 (Hayba & Ingebritsen, 1994), which is a three-dimensional numerical reservoir simulator. The model field is the northwestern part of Kego Fault, which was formed by a series of earthquakes called "the 2005 Fukuoka Prefecture Western Offshore Earthquakes" (the main shock of Mjma 7.0 on 20 March 2005) in Kyushu, Japan. The results of the numerical simulations show the development of a low temperature hydrothermal system as a new fracture zone is formed, in case that there is no volcanic heat source. The results of the simulations up to 100,000 years after formation of the fracture zone show that the higher heat flow and the wider and more permeable fracture zone accelerate the development of the hydrothermal system in the fracture zone. As a result of calculation of up to10 million years, we clarified the evolutional process of the non-volcanic hydrothermal system through the high permeability fracture zone. At

  1. A High-Resolution View of Global Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldhauser, F.; Schaff, D. P.

    2014-12-01

    We present high-precision earthquake relocation results from our global-scale re-analysis of the combined seismic archives of parametric data for the years 1964 to present from the International Seismological Centre (ISC), the USGS's Earthquake Data Report (EDR), and selected waveform data from IRIS. We employed iterative, multistep relocation procedures that initially correct for large location errors present in standard global earthquake catalogs, followed by a simultaneous inversion of delay times formed from regional and teleseismic arrival times of first and later arriving phases. An efficient multi-scale double-difference (DD) algorithm is used to solve for relative event locations to the precision of a few km or less, while incorporating information on absolute hypocenter locations from catalogs such as EHB and GEM. We run the computations on both a 40-core cluster geared towards HTC problems (data processing) and a 500-core HPC cluster for data inversion. Currently, we are incorporating waveform correlation delay time measurements available for events in selected regions, but are continuously building up a comprehensive, global correlation database for densely distributed events recorded at stations with a long history of high-quality waveforms. The current global DD catalog includes nearly one million earthquakes, equivalent to approximately 70% of the number of events in the ISC/EDR catalogs initially selected for relocation. The relocations sharpen the view of seismicity in most active regions around the world, in particular along subduction zones where event density is high, but also along mid-ocean ridges where existing hypocenters are especially poorly located. The new data offers the opportunity to investigate earthquake processes and fault structures along entire plate boundaries at the ~km scale, and provides a common framework that facilitates analysis and comparisons of findings across different plate boundary systems.

  2. Resolution testing and limitations of geodetic and tsunami datasets for finite fault inversions along subduction zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, A.; Newman, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    Finite fault inversions utilizing multiple datasets have become commonplace for large earthquakes pending data availability. The mixture of geodetic datasets such as Global Navigational Satellite Systems (GNSS) and InSAR, seismic waveforms, and when applicable, tsunami waveforms from Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART) gauges, provide slightly different observations that when incorporated together lead to a more robust model of fault slip distribution. The merging of different datasets is of particular importance along subduction zones where direct observations of seafloor deformation over the rupture area are extremely limited. Instead, instrumentation measures related ground motion from tens to hundreds of kilometers away. The distance from the event and dataset type can lead to a variable degree of resolution, affecting the ability to accurately model the spatial distribution of slip. This study analyzes the spatial resolution attained individually from geodetic and tsunami datasets as well as in a combined dataset. We constrain the importance of distance between estimated parameters and observed data and how that varies between land-based and open ocean datasets. Analysis focuses on accurately scaled subduction zone synthetic models as well as analysis of the relationship between slip and data in recent large subduction zone earthquakes. This study shows that seafloor deformation sensitive datasets, like open-ocean tsunami waveforms or seafloor geodetic instrumentation, can provide unique offshore resolution for understanding most large and particularly tsunamigenic megathrust earthquake activity. In most environments, we simply lack the capability to resolve static displacements using land-based geodetic observations.

  3. Experimental evidence that thrust earthquake ruptures might open faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabuchian, Vahe; Rosakis, Ares J; Bhat, Harsha S; Madariaga, Raúl; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2017-05-18

    Many of Earth's great earthquakes occur on thrust faults. These earthquakes predominantly occur within subduction zones, such as the 2011 moment magnitude 9.0 eathquake in Tohoku-Oki, Japan, or along large collision zones, such as the 1999 moment magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Chi-Chi, Taiwan. Notably, these two earthquakes had a maximum slip that was very close to the surface. This contributed to the destructive tsunami that occurred during the Tohoku-Oki event and to the large amount of structural damage caused by the Chi-Chi event. The mechanism that results in such large slip near the surface is poorly understood as shallow parts of thrust faults are considered to be frictionally stable. Here we use earthquake rupture experiments to reveal the existence of a torquing mechanism of thrust fault ruptures near the free surface that causes them to unclamp and slip large distances. Complementary numerical modelling of the experiments confirms that the hanging-wall wedge undergoes pronounced rotation in one direction as the earthquake rupture approaches the free surface, and this torque is released as soon as the rupture breaks the free surface, resulting in the unclamping and violent 'flapping' of the hanging-wall wedge. Our results imply that the shallow extent of the seismogenic zone of a subducting interface is not fixed and can extend up to the trench during great earthquakes through a torquing mechanism.

  4. Latin American contributions to the GEM’s Earthquake Consequences Database

    OpenAIRE

    Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario; Ordaz Schroeder, Mario Gustavo; Salgado Gálvez, Mario Andrés; Carreño Tibaduiza, Martha Liliana; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro

    2016-01-01

    One of the projects of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) was to develop a global earthquake consequences database (GEMECD) which served both to be an open and public repository of damages and losses on different types of elements at global level and also as a benchmark for the development of vulnerability models that could capture specific characteristics of the affected countries. The online earthquakes consequences database has information on 71 events where 14 correspond to events that occ...

  5. What controls intermediate depth seismicity in subduction zones?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florez, M. A.; Prieto, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Intermediate depth earthquakes seem to cluster in two distinct planes of seismicity along the subducting slab, known as Double Seismic Zones (DSZ). Precise double difference relocations in Tohoku, Japan and northern Chile confirm this pattern with striking accuracy. Furthermore, past studies have used statistical tests on the EHB global seismicity catalog to suggest that DSZs might be a dominant global feature. However, typical uncertainties associated with hypocentral depth prevent us from drawing meaningful conclusions about the detailed structure of intermediate depth seismicity and its relationship to the physical and chemical environment of most subduction zones. We have recently proposed a relative earthquake relocation algorithm based on the precise picking of the P and pP phase arrivals using array processing techniques [Florez and Prieto, 2017]. We use it to relocate seismicity in 24 carefully constructed slab segments that sample every subduction zone in the world. In all of the segments we are able to precisely delineate the structure of the double seismic zone. Our results indicate that whenever the lower plane of seismicity is active enough the width of the DSZ decreases in the down dip direction; the two planes merge at depths between 140 km and 300 km. We develop a method to unambiguously pick the depth of this merging point, the end of the DSZ, which appears to be correlated with the slab thermal parameter. We also confirm that the width of the DSZ increases with plate age. Finally, we estimate b-values for the upper and lower planes of seismicity and explore their relationships to the physical parameters that control slab subduction.

  6. Pre- and posttreatment with edaravone protects CA1 hippocampus and enhances neurogenesis in the subgranular zone of dentate gyrus after transient global cerebral ischemia in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Shan; Zhang, Pengbo; Li, Weisong; Gao, Ming; He, Xijing; Zheng, Juan; Li, Xu; Wang, Xiao; Wang, Ning; Zhang, Junfeng; Qi, Cunfang; Lu, Haixia; Chen, Xinlin; Liu, Yong

    2014-01-01

    Edaravone is clinically used for treatment of patients with acute cerebral infarction. However, the effect of double application of edaravone on neurogenesis in the hippocampus following ischemia remains unknown. In the present study, we explored whether pre- and posttreatment of edaravone had any effect on neural stem/progenitor cells (NSPCs) in the subgranular zone of hippocampus in a rat model of transient global cerebral ischemia and elucidated the potential mechanism of its effects. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into three groups: sham-operated (n = 15), control (n = 15), and edaravone-treated (n = 15) groups. Newly generated cells were labeled by 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect neurogenesis. Terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP-biotin nick-end labeling was used to detect cell apoptosis. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) were detected by 2,7-dichlorofluorescien diacetate assay in NSPCs in vitro. Hypoxia-inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α) and cleaved caspase-3 proteins were quantified by western blot analysis. Treatment with edaravone significantly increased the number of NSPCs and newly generated neurons in the subgranular zone (p edaravone also decreased apoptosis of NSPCs (p edaravone significantly decreased ROS generation and inhibited HIF-1α and cleaved caspase-3 protein expressions. These findings indicate that pre- and posttreatment with edaravone enhances neurogenesis by protecting NSPCs from apoptosis in the hippocampus, which is probably mediated by decreasing ROS generation and inhibiting protein expressions of HIF-1α and cleaved caspase-3 after cerebral ischemia. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  7. Pre- and Posttreatment With Edaravone Protects CA1 Hippocampus and Enhances Neurogenesis in the Subgranular Zone of Dentate Gyrus After Transient Global Cerebral Ischemia in Rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shan Lei

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Edaravone is clinically used for treatment of patients with acute cerebral infarction. However, the effect of double application of edaravone on neurogenesis in the hippocampus following ischemia remains unknown. In the present study, we explored whether pre- and posttreatment of edaravone had any effect on neural stem/progenitor cells (NSPCs in the subgranular zone of hippocampus in a rat model of transient global cerebral ischemia and elucidated the potential mechanism of its effects. Male Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into three groups: sham-operated (n = 15, control (n = 15, and edaravone-treated (n = 15 groups. Newly generated cells were labeled by 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect neurogenesis. Terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP-biotin nick-end labeling was used to detect cell apoptosis. Reactive oxygen species (ROS were detected by 2,7-dichlorofluorescien diacetate assay in NSPCs in vitro. Hypoxia-inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α and cleaved caspase-3 proteins were quantified by western blot analysis. Treatment with edaravone significantly increased the number of NSPCs and newly generated neurons in the subgranular zone (p < .05. Treatment with edaravone also decreased apoptosis of NSPCs (p < .01. Furthermore, treatment with edaravone significantly decreased ROS generation and inhibited HIF-1α and cleaved caspase-3 protein expressions. These findings indicate that pre- and posttreatment with edaravone enhances neurogenesis by protecting NSPCs from apoptosis in the hippocampus, which is probably mediated by decreasing ROS generation and inhibiting protein expressions of HIF-1α and cleaved caspase-3 after cerebral ischemia.

  8. The Temblor mobile seismic risk app, v2: Ra