Characterizing potentially induced earthquake rate changes in the Brawley Seismic Zone, southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

The Brawley seismic zone (BSZ), in the Salton trough of southern California, has a history of earthquake swarms and geothermal energy exploitation. Some earthquake rate changes may have been induced by fluid extraction and injection activity at local geothermal fields, particularly at the North Brawley Geothermal Field (NBGF) and at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF). We explore this issue by examining earthquake rate changes and interevent distance distributions in these fields. In Oklahoma and Arkansas, where considerable wastewater injection occurs, increases in background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity and decreases in interevent distance were indicative of fluid‐injection‐induced seismicity. Here, we test if similar changes occur that may be associated with fluid injection and extraction in geothermal areas. We use stochastic epidemic‐type aftershock sequence models to detect changes in the underlying seismogenic processes, shown by statistically significant changes in the model parameters. The most robust model changes in the SSGF roughly occur when large changes in net fluid production occur, but a similar correlation is not seen in the NBGF. Also, although both background seismicity rate and aftershock productivity increased for fluid‐injection‐induced earthquake rate changes in Oklahoma and Arkansas, the background rate increases significantly in the BSZ only, roughly corresponding with net fluid production rate increases. Moreover, in both fields the interevent spacing does not change significantly during active energy projects. This suggests that, although geothermal field activities in a tectonically active region may not significantly change the physics of earthquake interactions, earthquake rates may still be driven by fluid injection or extraction rates, particularly in the SSGF.

The 1998-1999 Pollino (Southern Apennines, Italy seismic crisis: tomography of a sequence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. B. Rosa

2005-06-01

Full Text Available In 1998-1999 a seismic sequence occurred in the Southern Apennines, after the moderate size (mb=5.0 9th September 1998 Pollino earthquake. It lasted about 14 months and was clearly localized to the sole north-west area of the main shock epicenter. Its peculiarity consisted in sudden changes of activity from a series of normal faults with Apenninic (NW-SE trend and transfer, presumably strike slip, faults with Antiapenninic (NE-SW and E-W trend. The complexity of the behavior and the different orientations of the activated systems suggest that the area acts as a hinge between the NW-SE trending Southern Apennines and the locally N-S trending Calabrian Arc.

Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra in southern California

OpenAIRE

Shearer, Peter M.; Prieto, Germán A.; Hauksson, Egill

2006-01-01

We compute and analyze P wave spectra from earthquakes in southern California between 1989 and 2001 using a method that isolates source-, receiver-, and path-dependent terms. We correct observed source spectra for attenuation using both fixed and spatially varying empirical Green's function methods. Estimated Brune-type stress drops for over 60,000 M_L = 1.5 to 3.1 earthquakes range from 0.2 to 20 MPa with no dependence on moment or local b value. Median computed stress drop increases with de...

Hotspots, Lifelines, and the Safrr Haywired Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Ratliff, J. L.; Porter, K.

2014-12-01

Though California has experienced many large earthquakes (San Francisco, 1906; Loma Prieta, 1989; Northridge, 1994), the San Francisco Bay Area has not had a damaging earthquake for 25 years. Earthquake risk and surging reliance on smartphones and the Internet to handle everyday tasks raise the question: is an increasingly technology-reliant Bay Area prepared for potential infrastructure impacts caused by a major earthquake? How will a major earthquake on the Hayward Fault affect lifelines (roads, power, water, communication, etc.)? The U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) program's Haywired disaster scenario, a hypothetical two-year earthquake sequence triggered by a M7.05 mainshock on the Hayward Fault, addresses these and other questions. We explore four geographic aspects of lifeline damage from earthquakes: (1) geographic lifeline concentrations, (2) areas where lifelines pass through high shaking or potential ground-failure zones, (3) areas with diminished lifeline service demand due to severe building damage, and (4) areas with increased lifeline service demand due to displaced residents and businesses. Potential mainshock lifeline vulnerability and spatial demand changes will be discerned by superimposing earthquake shaking, liquefaction probability, and landslide probability damage thresholds with lifeline concentrations and with large-capacity shelters. Intersecting high hazard levels and lifeline clusters represent potential lifeline susceptibility hotspots. We will also analyze possible temporal vulnerability and demand changes using an aftershock shaking threshold. The results of this analysis will inform regional lifeline resilience initiatives and response and recovery planning, as well as reveal potential redundancies and weaknesses for Bay Area lifelines. Identified spatial and temporal hotspots can provide stakeholders with a reference for possible systemic vulnerability resulting from an earthquake sequence.

Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, D. E.; Yeck, W. L.; Barnhart, W. D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, A.; Hough, S. E.; Benz, H. M.; Earle, P. S.

2017-09-01

The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard. Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10-15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

Continuous micro-earthquake catalogue of the central Southern Alps, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Michailos, Konstantinos; Townend, John; Savage, Martha; Chamberlain, Calum

2017-04-01

The Alpine Fault is one of the most prominent tectonic features in the South Island, New Zealand, and is inferred to be late in its seismic cycle of M 8 earthquakes based on paleoseismological evidence. Despite this, the Alpine Fault displays low levels of contemporary seismic activity, with little documented on-fault seismicity. This low magnitude seismicity, often below the completeness level of the GeoNet national seismic catalogue, may inform us of changes in fault character along-strike and might be used for rupture simulations and hazard planning. Thus, compiling a micro-earthquake catalogue for the Southern Alps prior to an expected major earthquake is of great interest. Areas of low seismic activity, like the central part of the Alpine Fault, require data recorded over a long duration to reveal temporal and spatial seismicity patterns and provide a better understanding for the processes controlling seismogenesis. The continuity and density of the Southern Alps Microearthquake Borehole Array (SAMBA; deployed in late 2008) allows us to study seismicity in the Southern Alps over a more extended time period than has ever been done previously. Furthermore, by using data from other temporary networks (e.g. WIZARD, ALFA08, DFDP-10) we are able to extend the region covered. To generate a spatially and temporally continuous catalogue of seismicity in New Zealand's central Southern Alps, we used automatic detection and phase-picking methods. We used an automatic phase-picking method for both P- and S- wave arrivals (kPick; Rawles and Thurber, 2015). Using almost 8 years of seismic data we calculated about 9,000 preliminary earthquake. The seismicity is clustered and scattered and a previously observed seismic gap between the Wanganui and Whataroa rivers is also identified.

On results of aseismatic safety examination for atomic energy facilities based on Southern Hyogo Prefecture Earthquake in 1995

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

The Nuclear Safety Commission received the report on the results of examination from the ad hoc examination committee. There was no particular effect to atomic energy facilities in the Southern Hyogo Prefecture Earthquake, however, from the viewpoint of perfecting the safety confirmation for atomic energy facilities, the Nuclear Safety Commission set up the aseismatic safety examination committee to investigate the validity of the guidelines related to aseismatic design used for safety examination. The basic plan of the investigation, the outline of the guidelines related to aseismatic design, the state of Southern Hyogo Prefecture Earthquake and the obtained knowledge and the investigation of the validity of the guidelines related to aseismatic design based on the state of Southern Hyogo Prefecture Earthquake are reported. The extraction of the items to be investigated, the evaluation of earthquakes and earthquake motion, vertical earthquake force and active faults, and the way of thinking on right under type earthquakes in the guideline for aseismatic design examination are reported. It was confirmed that the validity of guidelines is not impaired by the earthquake. (K.I.)

Long Aftershock Sequences within Continents and Implications for Earthquake Hazard Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, S. A.; Liu, M.

2014-12-01

Recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China has prompted concern about a repetition of the 1976 M7.8 earthquake that destroyed the city, killing more than 242,000 people. However, the decay of seismicity there implies that the recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of the 1976 event. This 37-year sequence is an example of the phenomenon that aftershock sequences within continents are often significantly longer than the typical 10 years at plate boundaries. The long sequence of aftershocks in continents is consistent with a simple friction-based model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Hence the slowly-deforming continents tend to have aftershock sequences significantly longer than at rapidly-loaded plate boundaries. This effect has two consequences for hazard assessment. First, within the heavily populated continents that are typically within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely significantly on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. This assumption would lead to overestimation of the hazard in presently active areas and underestimation elsewhere, if some of these small events are aftershocks. Second, successful attempts to remove aftershocks from catalogs used for hazard assessment would underestimate the hazard, because much of the hazard is due to the aftershocks, and the declustering algorithms implicitly assume short aftershock sequences and thus do not remove long-duration ones.

Relocation and Seismogenic Structure of the 1998 Zhangbei-Shangyi Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Z.

2002-05-01

An earthquake of magnitude 6.2 occurred in the Zhangbei-Shangyi region in the northern China on January 10, 1998. The earthquake was about 180km to the northwest of the Beijing City and was felt at Beijing. This earthquake is the largest event since the 1976 great Tangshan earthquake of magnitude 7.8 in the northern China. Historically seismicity in the Zhangbei-Shangyi region was very low. In the epicentral area no active fault constituting the seismogenic geological features capable of generating moderate earthquakes like this earthquake has been found before the earthquake. Nor surface faulting has been observed after the earthquake. Field geological investigation after the earthquake found two conjugate surface features trending NNE-NE and NNW-WNW. Because of the geometry of the seismic network the hypocentral distribution of the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake sequence given by routine location exhibited no any preferable orientation feature. In this study the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake and its aftershocks with magnitude equal or lager than 3.0 were relocated using both the master event relative relocation algorithm and the double-difference earthquake relocation algorithm (Waldhauser, 2000). Both algorithms gave consistent results within accuracy limits. The epicenter of the main shock was 41.15­aN and 114.46­aE, which was located 4km apart from the macro-epicenter of this event. The focal depth of the main shock was 15 km. The epicenters of aftershocks of this earthquake sequence distribute in a nearly vertical plane and its vicinity with orientation N20­aE. The results of relocation for the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake sequence clearly indicate that the seismogenic structure of this event is a N20­aE striking fault with right-lateral reverse slip, and that the occurrence of the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake is tectonically driven by the horizontal and oriented ENE compression stress, same as that of the stress field in northern China.

Interseismic strain accumulation and the earthquake potential on the southern San Andreas fault system.

Science.gov (United States)

Fialko, Yuri

2006-06-22

The San Andreas fault in California is a mature continental transform fault that accommodates a significant fraction of motion between the North American and Pacific plates. The two most recent great earthquakes on this fault ruptured its northern and central sections in 1906 and 1857, respectively. The southern section of the fault, however, has not produced a great earthquake in historic times (for at least 250 years). Assuming the average slip rate of a few centimetres per year, typical of the rest of the San Andreas fault, the minimum amount of slip deficit accrued on the southern section is of the order of 7-10 metres, comparable to the maximum co-seismic offset ever documented on the fault. Here I present high-resolution measurements of interseismic deformation across the southern San Andreas fault system using a well-populated catalogue of space-borne synthetic aperture radar data. The data reveal a nearly equal partitioning of deformation between the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto faults, with a pronounced asymmetry in strain accumulation with respect to the geologically mapped fault traces. The observed strain rates confirm that the southern section of the San Andreas fault may be approaching the end of the interseismic phase of the earthquake cycle.

2017 Valparaíso earthquake sequence and the megathrust patchwork of central Chile

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nealy, Jennifer L.; Herman, Matthew W.; Moore, Ginevra L.; Hayes, Gavin P.; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric A.; Barrientos, Sergio E.

2017-01-01

In April 2017, a sequence of earthquakes offshore Valparaíso, Chile, raised concerns of a potential megathrust earthquake in the near future. The largest event in the 2017 sequence was a M6.9 on 24 April, seemingly colocated with the last great-sized earthquake in the region—a M8.0 in March 1985.

Uncertainties in Earthquake Loss Analysis: A Case Study From Southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Mahdyiar, M.; Guin, J.

2005-12-01

Probabilistic earthquake hazard and loss analyses play important roles in many areas of risk management, including earthquake related public policy and insurance ratemaking. Rigorous loss estimation for portfolios of properties is difficult since there are various types of uncertainties in all aspects of modeling and analysis. It is the objective of this study to investigate the sensitivity of earthquake loss estimation to uncertainties in regional seismicity, earthquake source parameters, ground motions, and sites' spatial correlation on typical property portfolios in Southern California. Southern California is an attractive region for such a study because it has a large population concentration exposed to significant levels of seismic hazard. During the last decade, there have been several comprehensive studies of most regional faults and seismogenic sources. There have also been detailed studies on regional ground motion attenuations and regional and local site responses to ground motions. This information has been used by engineering seismologists to conduct regional seismic hazard and risk analysis on a routine basis. However, one of the more difficult tasks in such studies is the proper incorporation of uncertainties in the analysis. From the hazard side, there are uncertainties in the magnitudes, rates and mechanisms of the seismic sources and local site conditions and ground motion site amplifications. From the vulnerability side, there are considerable uncertainties in estimating the state of damage of buildings under different earthquake ground motions. From an analytical side, there are challenges in capturing the spatial correlation of ground motions and building damage, and integrating thousands of loss distribution curves with different degrees of correlation. In this paper we propose to address some of these issues by conducting loss analyses of a typical small portfolio in southern California, taking into consideration various source and ground

An ongoing earthquake sequence near Dhaka, Bangladesh, from regional recordings

Science.gov (United States)

Howe, M.; Mondal, D. R.; Akhter, S. H.; Kim, W.; Seeber, L.; Steckler, M. S.

2013-12-01

Earthquakes in and around the syntaxial region between the continent-continent collision of the Himalayan arc and oceanic subduction of the Sunda arc result primarily from the convergence of India and Eurasia-Sunda plates along two fronts. The northern front, the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates, has produced the Himalayas. The eastern front, the convergence of the Indian and Sunda plates, ranges from ocean-continent subduction at the Andaman Arc and Burma Arc, and transitions to continent-continent collision to the north at the Assam Syntaxis in northeast India. The India-Sunda convergence at the Burma Arc is extremely oblique. The boundary-normal convergence rate is ~17 mm/yr while the boundary-parallel rate is ~45 mm/yr including the well-known Sagaing strike-slip fault, which accommodates about half the shear component. This heterogeneous tectonic setting produces multiple earthquake sources that need to be considered when assessing seismic hazard and risk in this region. The largest earthquakes, just as in other subduction systems, are expected to be interplate events that occur on the low-angle megathrusts, such as the Mw 9.2 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the 1762 earthquake along the Arakan margin. These earthquakes are known to produce large damage over vast areas, but since they account for large fault motions they are relatively rare. The majority of current seismicity in the study area is intraplate. Most of the seismicity associated with the Burma Arc subduction system is in the down-going slab, including the shallow-dipping part below the megathrust flooring the accretionary wedge. The strike of the wedge is ~N-S and Dhaka lies at its outer limit. One particular source relevant to seismic risk in Dhaka is illuminated by a multi-year sequence of earthquakes in Bangladesh less than 100 km southeast of Dhaka. The population in Dhaka (now at least 15 million) has been increasing dramatically due to rapid urbanization. The vulnerability

The Bergshamra earthquake sequence of December 23, 1979

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kulhanek, O.; John, N.; Meyer, K.; Eck, T. van; Wahlstroem, R.

1980-08-01

On December 23, 1979 an earthquake sequence occurred near Bergshamra-Roslagen, Sweden, about 50 km northeast of Stockholm. The main shock, which has been assigned a magnitude Msub(L)=3.2, has been followed, with a 3 minute delay, by a shock of magnitude Msub(L)=2.6 and, with additional 21-minute delay, by a third shock of magnitude Msub(L)=2.0. Whereas the main shock was recorded by almost all Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish permanent stations, the whole sequence has been observed only at UPP (Δ=68 km). A six-week field survey in the epicentral area revealed a number of small aftershocks located close to the main shock. The Bergshamra sequence took place in a zone of very low seismicity in eastern central Sweden and for Swedish earthquakes at unusual shallow depth. Since the epicentre lies less than 100 km from a nuclear power plant in Forsmark, the sequence received publicity which was not in proportion to the size of the shock. At his occasion, some rather strange explanations of the shock emerged. (Auth.)

Earthquake measurements in southern Sweden Oct 1, 1986 - Mar 31, 1987

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slunga, R.; Nordgren, L.

1987-12-01

A network of four stations covering southeastern Sweden has been operated for the period Oct 1, 1986 - Mar 31, 1987. Three events were aftershocks to the strong Skoevde event, 860714, ML=4.5. This made it necessary to include the Skoevde main event together with a couple of earlier aftershocks in the analysis presented in this report. Thus the present study gives 10 new earthquake mechanisms. Three of these events are in the range ML=3.5-4.5. Of the earlier about 170 earthquake mechanisms available for southern Sweden the largest is ML=3.2. The earthquakes of the present study thus give significant new information about Swedish seismic activity. (orig./DG)

Evidence for a twelfth large earthquake on the southern hayward fault in the past 1900 years

Science.gov (United States)

Lienkaemper, J.J.; Williams, P.L.; Guilderson, T.P.

2010-01-01

We present age and stratigraphic evidence for an additional paleoearthquake at the Tyson Lagoon site. The acquisition of 19 additional radiocarbon dates and the inclusion of this additional event has resolved a large age discrepancy in our earlier earthquake chronology. The age of event E10 was previously poorly constrained, thus increasing the uncertainty in the mean recurrence interval (RI), a critical factor in seismic hazard evaluation. Reinspection of many trench logs revealed substantial evidence suggesting that an additional earthquake occurred between E10 and E9 within unit u45. Strata in older u45 are faulted in the main fault zone and overlain by scarp colluviums in two locations.We conclude that an additional surfacerupturing event (E9.5) occurred between E9 and E10. Since 91 A.D. (??40 yr, 1??), 11 paleoearthquakes preceded the M 6:8 earthquake in 1868, yielding a mean RI of 161 ?? 65 yr (1??, standard deviation of recurrence intervals). However, the standard error of the mean (SEM) is well determined at ??10 yr. Since ~1300 A.D., the mean rate has increased slightly, but is indistinguishable from the overall rate within the uncertainties. Recurrence for the 12-event sequence seems fairly regular: the coefficient of variation is 0.40, and it yields a 30-yr earthquake probability of 29%. The apparent regularity in timing implied by this earthquake chronology lends support for the use of time-dependent renewal models rather than assuming a random process to forecast earthquakes, at least for the southern Hayward fault.

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kato, Aitaro; Nakamura, Kouji; Hiyama, Yohei

2016-01-01

Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An M j 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an M j 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest.

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

KATO, Aitaro; NAKAMURA, Kouji; HIYAMA, Yohei

2016-01-01

Beginning in April 2016, a series of shallow, moderate to large earthquakes with associated strong aftershocks struck the Kumamoto area of Kyushu, SW Japan. An Mj 7.3 mainshock occurred on 16 April 2016, close to the epicenter of an Mj 6.5 foreshock that occurred about 28 hours earlier. The intense seismicity released the accumulated elastic energy by right-lateral strike slip, mainly along two known, active faults. The mainshock rupture propagated along multiple fault segments with different geometries. The faulting style is reasonably consistent with regional deformation observed on geologic timescales and with the stress field estimated from seismic observations. One striking feature of this sequence is intense seismic activity, including a dynamically triggered earthquake in the Oita region. Following the mainshock rupture, postseismic deformation has been observed, as well as expansion of the seismicity front toward the southwest and northwest. PMID:27725474

One feature of the activated southern Ordos block: the Ziwuling small earthquake cluster

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Yuhang

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Small earthquakes (Ms > 2.0 have been recorded from 1970 to the present day and reveal a significant difference in seismicity between the stable Ordos block and its active surrounding area. The southern Ordos block is a conspicuous small earthquake belt clustered and isolated along the NNW direction and extends to the inner stable Ordos block; no active fault can match this small earthquake cluster. In this paper, we analyze the dynamic mechanism of this small earthquake cluster based on the GPS velocity field (from 1999 to 2007, which are mainly from Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC with respect to the north and south China blocks. The principal direction of strain rate field, the expansion ratefield, the maximum shear strain rate, and the rotation rate were constrained using the GPS velocity field. The results show that the velocity field, which is bounded by the small earthquake cluster from Tongchuan to Weinan, differs from the strain rate field, and the crustal deformation is left-lateral shear. This left-lateral shear belt not only spatially coincides with the Neo-tectonic belt in the Weihe Basin but also with the NNW small earthquake cluster (the Ziwuling small earthquake cluster. Based on these studies, we speculate that the NNW small earthquake cluster is caused by left-lateral shear slip, which is prone to strain accumulation. When the strain releases along the weak zone of structure, small earthquakes diffuse within its upper crust. The maximum principal compression strees direction changed from NE-SW to NEE-SWW, and the former reverse faults in the southwestern margin of the Ordos block became a left-lateral strike slip due to readjustment of the tectonic strees field after the middle Pleistocene. The NNW Neo-tectonic belt in the Weihe Basin, the different movement character of the inner Weihe Basin (which was demonstrated through GPS measurements and the small earthquake cluster belt reflect the activated

Earthquakes in southern Dalmatia and coastal Montenegro before the large 6 April 1667 event

Science.gov (United States)

Albini, Paola; Rovida, Andrea

2018-05-01

The fourteenth to seventeenth century seismicity of southern Dalmatia (Croatia) and coastal Montenegro deserved to be fully reappraised because of the ascertained imperfect knowledge offered by modern seismological studies and of the awareness of the smokescreen effect due to the large 6 April 1667 M 6.4 earthquake that impacted exactly the area of study. The investigation consisted of (i) a reconsideration of earthquake records made available by previous studies and (ii) a systematic analysis of historical sources contemporary to the earthquakes, especially those not yet taken into account in seismological studies. The 168 contemporary and independent records collected cast a different light on more than 300 years of seismicity of this area. Records are reckoned to be unevenly distributed among the 39 studied earthquakes, out of which 15 still rely upon a single testimony. Each record has been reevaluated with respect to its content and attributed a level of reliability, which for those reporting other 14 events was so low to prevent us from confirming their real occurrence. Completely unreliable records have been identified and discussed, to conclude that they are at the root of five fake earthquakes. Altogether, 34 intensity values in EMS-98 were assessed related to 15 moderate and five damaging earthquakes. Existing and newly obtained data contributed to putting the pre-1667 seismicity of southern Dalmatia and coastal Montenegro into a substantially different perspective.

Modeling earthquake sequences along the Manila subduction zone: Effects of three-dimensional fault geometry

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Hongyu; Liu, Yajing; Yang, Hongfeng; Ning, Jieyuan

2018-05-01

To assess the potential of catastrophic megathrust earthquakes (MW > 8) along the Manila Trench, the eastern boundary of the South China Sea, we incorporate a 3D non-planar fault geometry in the framework of rate-state friction to simulate earthquake rupture sequences along the fault segment between 15°N-19°N of northern Luzon. Our simulation results demonstrate that the first-order fault geometry heterogeneity, the transitional-segment (possibly related to the subducting Scarborough seamount chain) connecting the steeper south segment and the flatter north segment, controls earthquake rupture behaviors. The strong along-strike curvature at the transitional-segment typically leads to partial ruptures of MW 8.3 and MW 7.8 along the southern and northern segments respectively. The entire fault occasionally ruptures in MW 8.8 events when the cumulative stress in the transitional-segment is sufficiently high to overcome the geometrical inhibition. Fault shear stress evolution, represented by the S-ratio, is clearly modulated by the width of seismogenic zone (W). At a constant plate convergence rate, a larger W indicates on average lower interseismic stress loading rate and longer rupture recurrence period, and could slow down or sometimes stop ruptures that initiated from a narrower portion. Moreover, the modeled interseismic slip rate before whole-fault rupture events is comparable with the coupling state that was inferred from the interplate seismicity distribution, suggesting the Manila trench could potentially rupture in a M8+ earthquake.

Rupture processes of the 2013-2014 Minab earthquake sequence, Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Kintner, Jonas A.; Ammon, Charles J.; Cleveland, K. Michael; Herman, Matthew

2018-06-01

We constrain epicentroid locations, magnitudes and depths of moderate-magnitude earthquakes in the 2013-2014 Minab sequence using surface-wave cross-correlations, surface-wave spectra and teleseismic body-wave modelling. We estimate precise relative locations of 54 Mw ≥ 3.8 earthquakes using 48 409 teleseismic, intermediate-period Rayleigh and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements. To reduce significant regional biases in our relative locations, we shift the relative locations to align the Mw 6.2 main-shock centroid to a location derived from an independent InSAR fault model. Our relocations suggest that the events lie along a roughly east-west trend that is consistent with the faulting geometry in the GCMT catalogue. The results support previous studies that suggest the sequence consists of left-lateral strain release, but better defines the main-shock fault length and shows that most of the Mw ≥ 5.0 aftershocks occurred on one or two similarly oriented structures. We also show that aftershock activity migrated westwards along strike, away from the main shock, suggesting that Coulomb stress transfer played a role in the fault failure. We estimate the magnitudes of the relocated events using surface-wave cross-correlation amplitudes and find good agreement with the GCMT moment magnitudes for the larger events and underestimation of small-event size by catalogue MS. In addition to clarifying details of the Minab sequence, the results demonstrate that even in tectonically complex regions, relative relocation using teleseismic surface waves greatly improves the precision of relative earthquake epicentroid locations and can facilitate detailed tectonic analyses of remote earthquake sequences.

Finite-fault slip model of the 2016 Mw 7.5 Chiloé earthquake, southern Chile, estimated from Sentinel-1 data

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Wenbin

2017-05-01

Subduction earthquakes have been widely studied in the Chilean subduction zone, but earthquakes occurring in its southern part have attracted less research interest primarily due to its lower rate of seismic activity. Here I use Sentinel-1 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data and range offset measurements to generate coseismic crustal deformation maps of the 2016 Mw 7.5 Chiloé earthquake in southern Chile. I find a concentrated crustal deformation with ground displacement of approximately 50 cm in the southern part of the Chiloé island. The best fitting fault model shows a pure thrust-fault motion on a shallow dipping plane orienting 4° NNE. The InSAR-determined moment is 2.4 × 1020 Nm with a shear modulus of 30 GPa, equivalent to Mw 7.56, which is slightly lower than the seismic moment. The model shows that the slip did not reach the trench, and it reruptured part of the fault that ruptured in the 1960 Mw 9.5 earthquake. The 2016 event has only released a small portion of the accumulated strain energy on the 1960 rupture zone, suggesting that the seismic hazard of future great earthquakes in southern Chile is high.

Spatial Distribution of earthquakes off the coast of Fukushima Two Years after the M9 Earthquake: the Southern Area of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Rupture Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Yamada, T.; Nakahigashi, K.; Shinohara, M.; Mochizuki, K.; Shiobara, H.

2014-12-01

Huge earthquakes cause vastly stress field change around the rupture zones, and many aftershocks and other related geophysical phenomenon such as geodetic movements have been observed. It is important to figure out the time-spacious distribution during the relaxation process for understanding the giant earthquake cycle. In this study, we pick up the southern rupture area of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M9.0). The seismicity rate keeps still high compared with that before the 2011 earthquake. Many studies using ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) have been doing since soon after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in order to obtain aftershock activity precisely. Here we show one of the studies at off the coast of Fukushima which is located on the southern part of the rupture area caused by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. We deployed 4 broadband type OBSs (BBOBSs) and 12 short-period type OBSs (SOBS) in August 2012. Other 4 BBOBSs attached with absolute pressure gauges and 20 SOBSs were added in November 2012. We recovered 36 OBSs including 8 BBOBSs in November 2013. We selected 1,000 events in the vicinity of the OBS network based on a hypocenter catalog published by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and extracted the data after time corrections caused by each internal clock. Each P and S wave arrival times, P wave polarity and maximum amplitude were picked manually on a computer display. We assumed one dimensional velocity structure based on the result from an active source experiment across our network, and applied time corrections every station for removing ambiguity of the assumed structure. Then we adopted a maximum-likelihood estimation technique and calculated the hypocenters. The results show that intensive activity near the Japan Trench can be seen, while there was a quiet seismic zone between the trench zone and landward high activity zone.

Archiving and Distributing Seismic Data at the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC)

Science.gov (United States)

Appel, V. L.

2002-12-01

The Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) archives and provides public access to earthquake parametric and waveform data gathered by the Southern California Seismic Network and since January 1, 2001, the TriNet seismic network, southern California's earthquake monitoring network. The parametric data in the archive includes earthquake locations, magnitudes, moment-tensor solutions and phase picks. The SCEDC waveform archive prior to TriNet consists primarily of short-period, 100-samples-per-second waveforms from the SCSN. The addition of the TriNet array added continuous recordings of 155 broadband stations (20 samples per second or less), and triggered seismograms from 200 accelerometers and 200 short-period instruments. Since the Data Center and TriNet use the same Oracle database system, new earthquake data are available to the seismological community in near real-time. Primary access to the database and waveforms is through the Seismogram Transfer Program (STP) interface. The interface enables users to search the database for earthquake information, phase picks, and continuous and triggered waveform data. Output is available in SAC, miniSEED, and other formats. Both the raw counts format (V0) and the gain-corrected format (V1) of COSMOS (Consortium of Organizations for Strong-Motion Observation Systems) are now supported by STP. EQQuest is an interface to prepackaged waveform data sets for select earthquakes in Southern California stored at the SCEDC. Waveform data for large-magnitude events have been prepared and new data sets will be available for download in near real-time following major events. The parametric data from 1981 to present has been loaded into the Oracle 9.2.0.1 database system and the waveforms for that time period have been converted to mSEED format and are accessible through the STP interface. The DISC optical-disk system (the "jukebox") that currently serves as the mass-storage for the SCEDC is in the process of being replaced

Source characteristics of the Fairview, OK, earthquake sequence and its relationship to industrial activities

Science.gov (United States)

Yeck, W. L.; Weingarten, M.; Benz, H.; McNamara, D. E.; Herrmann, R. B.; Rubinstein, J. L.; Earle, P. S.; Bergman, E.

2016-12-01

We characterize the spatio-temporal patterns of seismicity surrounding the February 13, 2016, Mw 5.1 Fairview, Oklahoma earthquake. This earthquake sequence accounts for the largest moment release in the central and eastern US since the November 06, 2011 Mw 5.6 Prague, OK earthquake sequence. To improve the location accuracy of the sequence and measure near-source ground motions, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) deployed eight seismometers and accelerometers in the epicentral region. With the added depth control from these stations, we show that earthquakes primarily occur in the Precambrian basement, at depths of 6-10 km below sea level. The Mw 5.1 mainshock, the largest event in the cluster, locates near the base of the seismicity. Relocated aftershocks delineate a partially unmapped, 14-km-long fault segment that strikes approximately N40°E, partially bridging the gap between previously mapped basement faults to the southwest and northeast. Gas production and hydraulic fracking data from the region show no evidence that either of these activities correlates spatio-temporally with the Fairview sequence. Instead, we suggest that a series of high-rate, Arbuckle injection wells (> 300,000 bbls/month) 8-25 km northeast of this sequence pressurized the reservoir in the far field. Regional injection into the Arbuckle formation increased 7-fold in the 24 months before the initiation of the sequence with some wells operating at rates greater than 1 million barrels per month. Seismicity in the proximity of the high-rate wells is diffuse whilst the energetic Fairview sequence occurs more than 15 km from this region. Our observations point to the critical role pre-existing geologic structures play in the occurrence of large induced earthquakes. This study demonstrates the need for a better understanding of the role of far-field pressurization. High-quality data sets such as this facilitate the USGS mission to improve earthquake hazard identification, especially

Impact of a Large San Andreas Fault Earthquake on Tall Buildings in Southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnan, S.; Ji, C.; Komatitsch, D.; Tromp, J.

2004-12-01

In 1857, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 occurred on the San Andreas fault, starting at Parkfield and rupturing in a southeasterly direction for more than 300~km. Such a unilateral rupture produces significant directivity toward the San Fernando and Los Angeles basins. The strong shaking in the basins due to this earthquake would have had a significant long-period content (2--8~s). If such motions were to happen today, they could have a serious impact on tall buildings in Southern California. In order to study the effects of large San Andreas fault earthquakes on tall buildings in Southern California, we use the finite source of the magnitude 7.9 2001 Denali fault earthquake in Alaska and map it onto the San Andreas fault with the rupture originating at Parkfield and proceeding southward over a distance of 290~km. Using the SPECFEM3D spectral element seismic wave propagation code, we simulate a Denali-like earthquake on the San Andreas fault and compute ground motions at sites located on a grid with a 2.5--5.0~km spacing in the greater Southern California region. We subsequently analyze 3D structural models of an existing tall steel building designed in 1984 as well as one designed according to the current building code (Uniform Building Code, 1997) subjected to the computed ground motion. We use a sophisticated nonlinear building analysis program, FRAME3D, that has the ability to simulate damage in buildings due to three-component ground motion. We summarize the performance of these structural models on contour maps of carefully selected structural performance indices. This study could benefit the city in laying out emergency response strategies in the event of an earthquake on the San Andreas fault, in undertaking appropriate retrofit measures for tall buildings, and in formulating zoning regulations for new construction. In addition, the study would provide risk data associated with existing and new construction to insurance companies, real estate developers, and

The Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake aftershock sequence, event catalog and locations

Science.gov (United States)

Meltzer, A.; Benz, H.; Brown, L.; Russo, R. M.; Beck, S. L.; Roecker, S. W.

2011-12-01

The aftershock sequence of the Mw=8.8 Maule earthquake off the coast of Chile in February 2010 is one of the most well-recorded aftershock sequences from a great megathrust earthquake. Immediately following the Maule earthquake, teams of geophysicists from Chile, France, Germany, Great Britain and the United States coordinated resources to capture aftershocks and other seismic signals associated with this significant earthquake. In total, 91 broadband, 48 short period, and 25 accelerometers stations were deployed above the rupture zone of the main shock from 33-38.5°S and from the coast to the Andean range front. In order to integrate these data into a unified catalog, the USGS National Earthquake Information Center develop procedures to use their real-time seismic monitoring system (Bulletin Hydra) to detect, associate, location and compute earthquake source parameters from these stations. As a first step in the process, the USGS has built a seismic catalog of all M3.5 or larger earthquakes for the time period of the main aftershock deployment from March 2010-October 2010. The catalog includes earthquake locations, magnitudes (Ml, Mb, Mb_BB, Ms, Ms_BB, Ms_VX, Mc), associated phase readings and regional moment tensor solutions for most of the M4 or larger events. Also included in the catalog are teleseismic phases and amplitude measures and body-wave MT and CMT solutions for the larger events, typically M5.5 and larger. Tuning of automated detection and association parameters should allow a complete catalog of events to approximately M2.5 or larger for that dataset of more than 164 stations. We characterize the aftershock sequence in terms of magnitude, frequency, and location over time. Using the catalog locations and travel times as a starting point we use double difference techniques to investigate relative locations and earthquake clustering. In addition, phase data from candidate ground truth events and modeling of surface waves can be used to calibrate the

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

Characterizing Aftershock Sequences of the Recent Strong Earthquakes in Central Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.; Nekrasova, Anastasia K.

2017-10-01

The recent strong earthquakes in Central Italy allow for a comparative analysis of their aftershocks from the viewpoint of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. In particular, we consider aftershocks as a sequence of avalanches in self-organized system of blocks-and-faults of the Earth lithosphere, each aftershock series characterized with the distribution of the USLE control parameter, η. We found the existence, in a long-term, of different, intermittent levels of rather steady seismic activity characterized with a near constant value of η, which switch, in mid-term, at times of transition associated with catastrophic events. On such a transition, seismic activity may follow different scenarios with inter-event time scaling of different kind, including constant, logarithmic, power law, exponential rise/decay or a mixture of those as observed in the case of the ongoing one associated with the three strong earthquakes in 2016. Evidently, our results do not support the presence of universality of seismic energy release, while providing constraints on modelling seismic sequences for earthquake physicists and supplying decision makers with information for improving local seismic hazard assessments.

Revisiting the Canterbury earthquake sequence after the 14 February 2016 Mw 5.7 event

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Herman, Matthew W.; Furlong, Kevin P.

2016-01-01

On 14 February 2016, an Mw 5.7 (GNS Science moment magnitude) earthquake ruptured offshore east of Christchurch, New Zealand. This earthquake occurred in an area that had previously experienced significant seismicity from 2010 to 2012 during the Canterbury earthquake sequence, starting with the 2010

Abundant aftershock sequence of the 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush intermediate-depth earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chenyu; Peng, Zhigang; Yao, Dongdong; Guo, Hao; Zhan, Zhongwen; Zhang, Haijiang

2018-05-01

The 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush earthquake occurred at a depth of 213 km beneath the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan. While many early aftershocks were missing from the global earthquake catalogues, this sequence was recorded continuously by eight broad-band stations within 500 km. Here we use a waveform matching technique to systematically detect earthquakes around the main shock. More than 3000 events are detected within 35 d after the main shock, as compared with 42 listed in the Advanced National Seismic System catalogue (or 196 in the International Seismological Centre catalogue). The aftershock sequence generally follows the Omori's law with a decay constant p = 0.92. We also apply the recently developed double-pair double-difference technique to relocate all detected aftershocks. Most of them are located to the west of the hypocentre of the main shock, consistent with the westward propagation of the main-shock rupture. The aftershocks outline a nearly vertical southward dipping plane, which matches well with one of the nodal planes of the main shock. We conclude that the aftershock sequence of this intermediate-depth earthquake shares many similarities with those for shallow earthquakes and infer that there are some common mechanisms responsible for shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes.

Characterization of Aftershock Sequences from Large Strike-Slip Earthquakes Along Geometrically Complex Faults

Science.gov (United States)

Sexton, E.; Thomas, A.; Delbridge, B. G.

2017-12-01

Large earthquakes often exhibit complex slip distributions and occur along non-planar fault geometries, resulting in variable stress changes throughout the region of the fault hosting aftershocks. To better discern the role of geometric discontinuities on aftershock sequences, we compare areas of enhanced and reduced Coulomb failure stress and mean stress for systematic differences in the time dependence and productivity of these aftershock sequences. In strike-slip faults, releasing structures, including stepovers and bends, experience an increase in both Coulomb failure stress and mean stress during an earthquake, promoting fluid diffusion into the region and further failure. Conversely, Coulomb failure stress and mean stress decrease in restraining bends and stepovers in strike-slip faults, and fluids diffuse away from these areas, discouraging failure. We examine spatial differences in seismicity patterns along structurally complex strike-slip faults which have hosted large earthquakes, such as the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, the 2010 Mw 7.2 El-Mayor Cucapah, the 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa, and the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto events. We characterize the behavior of these aftershock sequences with the Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence Model (ETAS). In this statistical model, the total occurrence rate of aftershocks induced by an earthquake is λ(t) = λ_0 + \\sum_{i:t_i

Foreshocks and aftershocks of the Great 1857 California earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

1999-01-01

The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults anywhere in the world, yet we know little about many aspects of its behavior before, during, and after large earthquakes. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest foreshocks and aftershocks of the 1857 M 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the central and southern segments of the fault. We began by searching archived first-hand accounts from 1857 through 1862, by grouping felt reports temporally, and by assigning modified Mercalli intensities to each site. We then used a modified form of the grid-search algorithm of Bakum and Wentworth, derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes, to find the location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities for each of the largest events. The result confirms a conclusion of Sieh that at least two foreshocks ('dawn' and 'sunrise') located on or near the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault preceded the mainshock. We estimate their magnitudes to be M ~ 6.1 and M ~ 5.6, respectively. The aftershock rate was below average but within one standard deviation of the number of aftershocks expected based on statistics of modern southern California mainshock-aftershock sequences. The aftershocks included two significant events during the first eight days of the sequence, with magnitudes M ~ 6.25 and M ~ 6.7, near the southern half of the rupture; later aftershocks included a M ~ 6 event near San Bernardino in December 1858 and a M ~ 6.3 event near the Parkfield segment in April 1860. From earthquake logs at Fort Tejon, we conclude that the aftershock sequence lasted a minimum of 3.75 years.

Earthquake Swarm Along the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977.

Science.gov (United States)

McNally, K C; Kanamori, H; Pechmann, J C; Fuis, G

1978-09-01

Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude foreshock sequences, such as tight clustering of hypocenters and time-dependent rotations of stress axes inferred from focal mechanisms. However, because of our present lack of understanding of the processes that precede earthquake faulting, the implications of the swarm for future large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault are unknown.

Breaking barriers and halting rupture: the 2016 Amatrice-Visso-Castelluccio earthquake sequence, central Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Gregory, L. C.; Walters, R. J.; Wedmore, L. N. J.; Craig, T. J.; McCaffrey, K. J. W.; Wilkinson, M. W.; Livio, F.; Michetti, A.; Goodall, H.; Li, Z.; Chen, J.; De Martini, P. M.

2017-12-01

In 2016 the Central Italian Apennines was struck by a sequence of normal faulting earthquakes that ruptured in three separate events on the 24th August (Mw 6.2), the 26th Oct (Mw 6.1), and the 30th Oct (Mw 6.6). We reveal the complex nature of the individual events and the time-evolution of the sequence using multiple datasets. We will present an overview of the results from field geology, satellite geodesy, GNSS (including low-cost short baseline installations), and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). Sequences of earthquakes of mid to high magnitude 6 are common in historical and seismological records in Italy and other similar tectonic settings globally. Multi-fault rupture during these sequences can occur in seconds, as in the M 6.9 1980 Irpinia earthquake, or can span days, months, or years (e.g. the 1703 Norcia-L'Aquila sequence). It is critical to determine why the causative faults in the 2016 sequence did not rupture simultaneously, and how this relates to fault segmentation and structural barriers. This is the first sequence of this kind to be observed using modern geodetic techniques, and only with all of the datasets combined can we begin to understand how and why the sequence evolved in time and space. We show that earthquake rupture both broke through structural barriers that were thought to exist, but was also inhibited by a previously unknown structure. We will also discuss the logistical challenges in generating datasets on the time-evolving sequence, and show how rapid response and international collaboration within the Open EMERGEO Working Group was critical for gaining a complete picture of the ongoing activity.

Response and recovery lessons from the 2010-2011 earthquake sequence in Canterbury, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Pierepiekarz, Mark; Johnston, David; Berryman, Kelvin; Hare, John; Gomberg, Joan S.; Williams, Robert A.; Weaver, Craig S.

2014-01-01

The impacts and opportunities that result when low-probability moderate earthquakes strike an urban area similar to many throughout the US were vividly conveyed in a one-day workshop in which social and Earth scientists, public officials, engineers, and an emergency manager shared their experiences of the earthquake sequence that struck the city of Christchurch and surrounding Canterbury region of New Zealand in 2010-2011. Without question, the earthquake sequence has had unprecedented impacts in all spheres on New Zealand society, locally to nationally--10% of the country's population was directly impacted and losses total 8-10% of their GDP. The following paragraphs present a few lessons from Christchurch.

HYDROACOUSTIC OBSERVATIONS OF WEAK EARTHQUAKES IN SHALLOW WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN KURIL ISLANDS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander S. Borisov

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Results of hydroacoustic observations of signals from weak earthquakes in natural conditions in the region of the Southern Kuril Islands are presented. Some earthquakes were registered by the the Yuzhno-Kurilsk Seismic Station, other were only recorded by hydrophone stations. The observations were specific as seismic signals were recorded in shallow waters, i.e. in high noise level conditions. Hydrophones were installed in Lake Lagunnoe (Kunashir and Khromovaya Bay (Shikotan. Our analysis of hydroacoustic records received from the hydrophone stations revealed no evident precursory response of the geological medium to weak distant events. This means that neither before the period of earthquake preparation nor during the earthquake preparation period, any geoacoustic emission was not detected. It is shown that despite the unfavourable noise level conditions, even distant weak earthquakes can be confidently registered by hydrophone stations, and pending application of proper signal processing techniques, it can be possible to determine arrival times of seismic waves and to measure parameters of seismic waves. It is also established that the frequency spectrum of acoustic signals from the weak earthquakes recordable by the hydrophone stations is continuous and of noise type in the frequency range up to 90–100 Hz. It is revealed that in some cases, weak earthquakes and microearthquakes may be forerun by low frequency signals.

Paleoseismic evidence of earthquakes and tsunamis along the southern part of the Japan Trench

Science.gov (United States)

Pilarczyk, Jessica; Sawai, Yuki; Horton, Ben; Namegaya, Yuichi; Shinozaki, Tetsuya; Tanigawa, Koichiro; Matsumoto, Dan; Dura, Tina; Fujiwara, Osamu; Shishikura, Masanobu

2016-04-01

The northern part of the Japan Trench has frequently generated tsunamigenic-earthquakes with magnitudes up to ~M 8.0. In contrast, the middle and southern parts of the Japan Trench were considered relatively inactive until the 2011 Tohoku (M 9.0) event generated one of the largest tsunamis in recorded history. Geologic evidence from the Sendai plain revealed an event in CE 869 that could have forecast the severity of the Tohoku tsunami in 2011. Seismic models indicate that the Tohoku earthquake may have transferred stress southwards down the fault to the potentially locked southern part of the Japan Trench. This transfer of stress towards a locked section of the trench could produce an earthquake in the near future that would be comparable in magnitude to the Tohoku event. Reconstructing the history of individual great earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis using geological records from the coastal zone adjacent to the southern part of the Japan Trench provides an assessment of the seismic hazard for metropolitan areas in east-central Japan. We have found two anomalous marine sand layers intercalated with muddy peat, which can be traced 3.8 km inland and 5.5 km along the present Kujukuri coastline, approximately 50 km east of Tokyo. Both sand layers have features consistent with tsunami deposits, such as a distinct erosional base, rip-up clasts, normal grading, a mud drape, and marine foraminifera. Results of radiocarbon dating constrain the age of the upper sand to 337 - 299 cal. yrs. BP, which likely corresponds to the only known southern Japan Trench rupture ever recorded, the Empo tsunami of CE 1677. The age of the lower sand is 979 - 903 cal. yrs. BP; marking an event for which there is no historical documentation at present. Preliminary tsunami simulation models indicate that a middle trench (Tohoku-style) rupture is not responsible for significant inundation of the Kujukuri coastline and would likely not have been capable of depositing either sand layer

Precursory slow-slip loaded the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Borghi, A.; Aoudia, A.; Javed, F.; Barzaghi, R.

2016-05-01

Slow-slip events (SSEs) are common at subduction zone faults where large mega earthquakes occur. We report here that one of the best-recorded moderate size continental earthquake, the 2009 April 6 moment magnitude (Mw) 6.3 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake, was preceded by a 5.9 Mw SSE that originated from the decollement beneath the reactivated normal faulting system. The SSE is identified from a rigorous analysis of continuous GPS stations and occurred on the 12 February and lasted for almost two weeks. It coincided with a burst in the foreshock activity with small repeating earthquakes migrating towards the main-shock hypocentre as well as with a change in the elastic properties of rocks in the fault region. The SSE has caused substantial stress loading at seismogenic depths where the magnitude 4.0 foreshock and Mw 6.3 main shock nucleated. This stress loading is also spatially correlated with the lateral extent of the aftershock sequence.

Dual megathrust slip behaviors of the 2014 Iquique earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Lingsen; Huang, Hui; Bürgmann, Roland; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Strader, Anne

2015-02-01

The transition between seismic rupture and aseismic creep is of central interest to better understand the mechanics of subduction processes. A Mw 8.2 earthquake occurred on April 1st, 2014 in the Iquique seismic gap of northern Chile. This event was preceded by a long foreshock sequence including a 2-week-long migration of seismicity initiated by a Mw 6.7 earthquake. Repeating earthquakes were found among the foreshock sequence that migrated towards the mainshock hypocenter, suggesting a large-scale slow-slip event on the megathrust preceding the mainshock. The variations of the recurrence times of the repeating earthquakes highlight the diverse seismic and aseismic slip behaviors on different megathrust segments. The repeaters that were active only before the mainshock recurred more often and were distributed in areas of substantial coseismic slip, while repeaters that occurred both before and after the mainshock were in the area complementary to the mainshock rupture. The spatiotemporal distribution of the repeating earthquakes illustrates the essential role of propagating aseismic slip leading up to the mainshock and illuminates the distribution of postseismic afterslip. Various finite fault models indicate that the largest coseismic slip generally occurred down-dip from the foreshock activity and the mainshock hypocenter. Source imaging by teleseismic back-projection indicates an initial down-dip propagation stage followed by a rupture-expansion stage. In the first stage, the finite fault models show an emergent onset of moment rate at low frequency ( 0.5 Hz). This indicates frequency-dependent manifestations of seismic radiation in the low-stress foreshock region. In the second stage, the rupture expands in rich bursts along the rim of a semi-elliptical region with episodes of re-ruptures, suggesting delayed failure of asperities. The high-frequency rupture remains within an area of local high trench-parallel gravity anomaly (TPGA), suggesting the presence of

Interaction of the san jacinto and san andreas fault zones, southern california: triggered earthquake migration and coupled recurrence intervals.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders, C O

1993-05-14

Two lines of evidence suggest that large earthquakes that occur on either the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) or the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) may be triggered by large earthquakes that occur on the other. First, the great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake in the SAFZ seems to have triggered a progressive sequence of earthquakes in the SJFZ. These earthquakes occurred at times and locations that are consistent with triggering by a strain pulse that propagated southeastward at a rate of 1.7 kilometers per year along the SJFZ after the 1857 earthquake. Second, the similarity in average recurrence intervals in the SJFZ (about 150 years) and in the Mojave segment of the SAFZ (132 years) suggests that large earthquakes in the northern SJFZ may stimulate the relatively frequent major earthquakes on the Mojave segment. Analysis of historic earthquake occurrence in the SJFZ suggests little likelihood of extended quiescence between earthquake sequences.

Strain Anomalies during an Earthquake Sequence in the South Iceland Seismic Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Arnadottir, T.; Haines, A. J.; Geirsson, H.; Hreinsdottir, S.

2017-12-01

The South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) accommodates E-W translation due to oblique spreading between the North American/Hreppar microplate and Eurasian plate, in South Iceland. Strain is released in the SISZ during earthquake sequences that last days to years, at average intervals of 80-100 years. The SISZ is currently in the midst of an earthquake sequence that started with two M6.5 earthquakes in June 2000, and continued with two M6 earthquakes in May 2008. Estimates of geometric strain accumulation, and seismic strain release in these events indicate that they released at most only half of the strain accumulated since the last earthquake cycle in 1896-1912. Annual GPS campaigns and continuous measurements during 2001-2015 were used to calculate station velocities and strain rates from a new method using the vertical derivatives of horizontal stress (VDoHS). This new method allows higher resolution of strain rates than other (older) approaches, as the strain rates are estimated by integrating VDoHS rates obtained by inversion rather than differentiating interpolated GPS velocities. Estimating the strain rates for eight 1-2 year intervals indicates temporal and spatial variation of strain rates in the SISZ. In addition to earthquake faulting, the strain rates in the SISZ are influenced by anthropogenic signals due to geothermal exploitation, and magma movements in neighboring volcanoes - Hekla and Eyjafjallajökull. Subtle signals of post-seismic strain rate changes are seen following the June 2000 M6.5 main shocks, but interestingly, much larger strain rate variations are observed after the two May 2008 M6 main shocks. A prominent strain anomaly is evident in the epicentral area prior to the May 2008 earthquake sequence. The strain signal persists over at least 4 years in the epicentral area, leading up to the M6 main shocks. The strain is primarily extension in ESE-WNW direction (sub-parallel to the direction of plate spreading), but overall shear across the N

The 2016 Mihoub (north-central Algeria) earthquake sequence: Seismological and tectonic aspects

Science.gov (United States)

Khelif, M. F.; Yelles-Chaouche, A.; Benaissa, Z.; Semmane, F.; Beldjoudi, H.; Haned, A.; Issaadi, A.; Chami, A.; Chimouni, R.; Harbi, A.; Maouche, S.; Dabbouz, G.; Aidi, C.; Kherroubi, A.

2018-06-01

On 28 May 2016 at 23:54 (UTC), an Mw5.4 earthquake occurred in Mihoub village, Algeria, 60 km southeast of Algiers. This earthquake was the largest event in a sequence recorded from 10 April to 15 July 2016. In addition to the permanent national network, a temporary network was installed in the epicentral region after this shock. Recorded event locations allow us to give a general overview of the sequence and reveal the existence of two main fault segments. The first segment, on which the first event in the sequence was located, is near-vertical and trends E-W. The second fault plane, on which the largest event of the sequence was located, dips to the southeast and strikes NE-SW. A total of 46 well-constrained focal mechanisms were calculated. The events located on the E-W-striking fault segment show mainly right-lateral strike-slip (strike N70°E, dip 77° to the SSE, rake 150°). The events located on the NE-SW-striking segment show mainly reverse faulting (strike N60°E, dip 70° to the SE, rake 130°). We calculated the static stress change caused by the first event (Md4.9) of the sequence; the result shows that the fault plane of the largest event in the sequence (Mw5.4) and most of the aftershocks occurred within an area of increased Coulomb stress. Moreover, using the focal mechanisms calculated in this work, we estimated the orientations of the main axes of the local stress tensor ellipsoid. The results confirm previous findings that the general stress field in this area shows orientations aligned NNW-SSE to NW-SE. The 2016 Mihoub earthquake sequence study thus improves our understanding of seismic hazard in north-central Algeria.

The 2006-2007 Kuril Islands great earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Lay, T.; Kanamori, H.; Ammon, C.J.; Hutko, Alexander R.; Furlong, K.; Rivera, L.

2009-01-01

The southwestern half of a ???500 km long seismic gap in the central Kuril Island arc subduction zone experienced two great earthquakes with extensive preshock and aftershock sequences in late 2006 to early 2007. The nature of seismic coupling in the gap had been uncertain due to the limited historical record of prior large events and the presence of distinctive upper plate, trench and outer rise structures relative to adjacent regions along the arc that have experienced repeated great interplate earthquakes in the last few centuries. The intraplate region seaward of the seismic gap had several shallow compressional events during the preceding decades (notably an MS 7.2 event on 16 March 1963), leading to speculation that the interplate fault was seismically coupled. This issue was partly resolved by failure of the shallow portion of the interplate megathrust in an MW = 8.3 thrust event on 15 November 2006. This event ruptured ???250 km along the seismic gap, just northeast of the great 1963 Kuril Island (Mw = 8.5) earthquake rupture zone. Within minutes of the thrust event, intense earthquake activity commenced beneath the outer wall of the trench seaward of the interplate rupture, with the larger events having normal-faulting mechanisms. An unusual double band of interplate and intraplate aftershocks developed. On 13 January 2007, an MW = 8.1 extensional earthquake ruptured within the Pacific plate beneath the seaward edge of the Kuril trench. This event is the third largest normal-faulting earthquake seaward of a subduction zone on record, and its rupture zone extended to at least 33 km depth and paralleled most of the length of the 2006 rupture. The 13 January 2007 event produced stronger shaking in Japan than the larger thrust event, as a consequence of higher short-period energy radiation from the source. The great event aftershock sequences were dominated by the expected faulting geometries; thrust faulting for the 2006 rupture zone, and normal faulting for

Preseismic anomalies in soil-gas radon associated with 2016 M 6.6 Meinong earthquake, Southern Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Chou Fu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Taiwan is tectonically situated in a terrain resulting from the oblique collision between the Philippine Sea plate and the continental margin of the Asiatic plate, with a continuous stress causing the density of strong-moderate earthquakes and regional active faults. The continuous time series of soil radon for earthquake studies have been recorded and some significant variations associated with strong earthquakes have been observed. Earthquake prediction is not still operative but these correlations should be added to the literature about seismo-geochemical transients associated to strong earthquakes. Rain-pore pressure related variations, crustal weakness at the studied faults system is consistent with the simultaneous radon anomalies observed. During the observations, a significant increase of soil radon concentrations was observed at Chunglun-T1 (CL-T1, Hsinhua (HH, Pingtung (PT, and Chihshan (CS stations approximately two weeks before the Meinong earthquake (ML = 6.6, 6 February 2016 in Southern Taiwan. The precursory changes in a multi-stations array may reflect the preparation stage of a large earthquake. Precursory signals are observed simultaneously and it can apply certain algorithms the approximate location and magnitude of the impending earthquake.

Seismotectonics of the 2014 Chiang Rai, Thailand, earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Pananont, P.; Herman, M. W.; Pornsopin, P.; Furlong, K. P.; Habangkaem, S.; Waldhauser, F.; Wongwai, W.; Limpisawad, S.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Wechbunthung, B.

2017-08-01

On 5 May 2014, a Mw 6.2 strike-slip earthquake occurred in the Mae Lao region of Chiang Rai province in Thailand. This earthquake took place in a region of known faults and caused substantial damage and injuries, although the region had been previously identified as having a relatively low earthquake hazard. Detailed field reconnaissance and deployment of a dense, temporary, network of broadband seismometers allowed details of the damage and its relationship to seismicity to be analyzed. The aftershock sequence associated with this main shock occurs on two well-defined trends, reflecting the two potential fault planes in earthquake mechanisms for the main shock and the majority of the aftershocks. The damage area was relatively large for an event of this magnitude, but building damage was largely limited to the primary rupture region, while liquefaction and other ground failure are spatially associated with the rupture area and along regional rivers. Stress modeling, combined with the time series and pattern of aftershock activity, leads us to propose that slip near the northern termination of the main shock rupture continued slightly onto a conjugate fault, helping to trigger the distinct pattern of two discrete, conjugate trends of aftershock activity that mirror the kinematics of the main shock fault mechanism.

The Southern California Earthquake Center/Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/UseIT) Internship Program

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, S.; Jordan, T.

2006-12-01

Our undergraduate research program, SCEC/UseIT, an NSF Research Experience for Undergraduates site, provides software for earthquake researchers and educators, movies for outreach, and ways to strengthen the technical career pipeline. SCEC/UseIT motivates diverse undergraduates towards science and engineering careers through team-based research in the exciting field of earthquake information technology. UseIT provides the cross-training in computer science/information technology (CS/IT) and geoscience needed to make fundamental progress in earthquake system science. Our high and increasing participation of women and minority students is crucial given the nation"s precipitous enrollment declines in CS/IT undergraduate degree programs, especially among women. UseIT also casts a "wider, farther" recruitment net that targets scholars interested in creative work but not traditionally attracted to summer science internships. Since 2002, SCEC/UseIT has challenged 79 students in three dozen majors from as many schools with difficult, real-world problems that require collaborative, interdisciplinary solutions. Interns design and engineer open-source software, creating increasingly sophisticated visualization tools (see "SCEC-VDO," session IN11), which are employed by SCEC researchers, in new curricula at the University of Southern California, and by outreach specialists who make animated movies for the public and the media. SCEC-VDO would be a valuable tool for research-oriented professional development programs.

Identification and characterization of earthquake clusters: a comparative analysis for selected sequences in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Peresan, Antonella; Gentili, Stefania

2017-04-01

Identification and statistical characterization of seismic clusters may provide useful insights about the features of seismic energy release and their relation to physical properties of the crust within a given region. Moreover, a number of studies based on spatio-temporal analysis of main-shocks occurrence require preliminary declustering of the earthquake catalogs. Since various methods, relying on different physical/statistical assumptions, may lead to diverse classifications of earthquakes into main events and related events, we aim to investigate the classification differences among different declustering techniques. Accordingly, a formal selection and comparative analysis of earthquake clusters is carried out for the most relevant earthquakes in North-Eastern Italy, as reported in the local OGS-CRS bulletins, compiled at the National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics since 1977. The comparison is then extended to selected earthquake sequences associated with a different seismotectonic setting, namely to events that occurred in the region struck by the recent Central Italy destructive earthquakes, making use of INGV data. Various techniques, ranging from classical space-time windows methods to ad hoc manual identification of aftershocks, are applied for detection of earthquake clusters. In particular, a statistical method based on nearest-neighbor distances of events in space-time-energy domain, is considered. Results from clusters identification by the nearest-neighbor method turn out quite robust with respect to the time span of the input catalogue, as well as to minimum magnitude cutoff. The identified clusters for the largest events reported in North-Eastern Italy since 1977 are well consistent with those reported in earlier studies, which were aimed at detailed manual aftershocks identification. The study shows that the data-driven approach, based on the nearest-neighbor distances, can be satisfactorily applied to decompose the seismic

Simulating Earthquakes for Science and Society: Earthquake Visualizations Ideal for use in Science Communication and Education

Science.gov (United States)

de Groot, R.

2008-12-01

The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has been developing groundbreaking computer modeling capabilities for studying earthquakes. These visualizations were initially shared within the scientific community but have recently gained visibility via television news coverage in Southern California. Computers have opened up a whole new world for scientists working with large data sets, and students can benefit from the same opportunities (Libarkin & Brick, 2002). For example, The Great Southern California ShakeOut was based on a potential magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault. The visualization created for the ShakeOut was a key scientific and communication tool for the earthquake drill. This presentation will also feature SCEC Virtual Display of Objects visualization software developed by SCEC Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology interns. According to Gordin and Pea (1995), theoretically visualization should make science accessible, provide means for authentic inquiry, and lay the groundwork to understand and critique scientific issues. This presentation will discuss how the new SCEC visualizations and other earthquake imagery achieve these results, how they fit within the context of major themes and study areas in science communication, and how the efficacy of these tools can be improved.

Change in failure stress on the southern san andreas fault system caused by the 1992 magnitude = 7.4 landers earthquake.

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, R S; King, G C; Lin, J

1992-11-20

The 28 June Landers earthquake brought the San Andreas fault significantly closer to failure near San Bernardino, a site that has not sustained a large shock since 1812. Stress also increased on the San Jacinto fault near San Bernardino and on the San Andreas fault southeast of Palm Springs. Unless creep or moderate earthquakes relieve these stress changes, the next great earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault is likely to be advanced by one to two decades. In contrast, stress on the San Andreas north of Los Angeles dropped, potentially delaying the next great earthquake there by 2 to 10 years.

Crustal structure beneath the southern Korean Peninsula from local earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Kwang-Hee; Park, Jung-Ho; Park, Yongcheol; Hao, Tian-Yao; Kim, Han-Joon

2017-05-01

The 3-D subsurface structure beneath the southern Korean Peninsula is poorly known, even though such information could be key in verifying or rejecting several competing models of the tectonic evolution of East Asia. We constructed a 3-D velocity model of the upper crust beneath the southern Korean Peninsula using 19 935 P-wave arrivals from 747 earthquakes recorded by high-density local seismic networks. Results show significant lateral and vertical variations: velocity increases from northwest to southeast at shallow depths, and significant velocity variations are observed across the South Korea Tectonic Line between the Okcheon Fold Belt and the Youngnam Massif. Collision between the North and South China blocks during the Early Cretaceous might have caused extensive deformation and the observed negative velocity anomalies in the region. The results of the tomographic inversion, combined with the findings of previous studies of Bouguer and isostatic gravity anomalies, indicate the presence of high-density material in the upper and middle crust beneath the Gyeongsang Basin in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. Although our results partially support the indentation tectonic model, it is still premature to discard other tectonic evolution models because our study only covers the southern half of the peninsula.

The January 2014 Northern Cuba Earthquake Sequence - Unusual Location and Unexpected Source Mechanism Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Braunmiller, J.; Thompson, G.; McNutt, S. R.

2017-12-01

On 9 January 2014, a magnitude Mw=5.1 earthquake occurred along the Bahamas-Cuba suture at the northern coast of Cuba revealing a surprising seismic hazard source for both Cuba and southern Florida where it was widely felt. Due to its location, the event and its aftershocks (M>3.5) were recorded only at far distances (300+ km) resulting in high-detection thresholds, low location accuracy, and limited source parameter resolution. We use three-component regional seismic data to study the sequence. High-pass filtered seismograms at the closest site in southern Florida are similar in character suggesting a relatively tight event cluster and revealing additional, smaller aftershocks not included in the ANSS or ISC catalogs. Aligning on the P arrival and low-pass filtering (T>10 s) uncovers a surprise polarity flip of the large amplitude surface waves on vertical seismograms for some aftershocks relative to the main shock. We performed regional moment tensor inversions of the main shock and its largest aftershocks using complete three-component seismograms from stations distributed throughout the region to confirm the mechanism changes. Consistent with the GCMT solution, we find an E-W trending normal faulting mechanism for the main event and for one immediate aftershock. Two aftershocks indicate E-W trending reverse faulting with essentially flipped P- and T-axes relative to the normal faulting events (and the same B-axes). Within uncertainties, depths of the two event families are indistinguishable and indicate shallow faulting (<10 km). One intriguing possible interpretation is that both families ruptured the same fault with reverse mechanisms compensating for overshooting. However, activity could also be spatially separated either vertically (with reverse mechanisms possibly below extension) or laterally. The shallow source depth and the 200-km long uplifted chain of islands indicate that larger, shallow and thus potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes could occur just

Investigating the Local Three-dimensional Velocity Structure of the 2008 Taoyuan Earthquake Sequence of Kaohsiung, Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Shih, M. H.; Huang, B. S.

2016-12-01

March 4, 2008, a moderate earthquake (ML 5.2) occurred in Taoyuan district of Kaohsiung County in the southern Taiwan. It was followed by numerous aftershocks in the following 48 hours, including three events with magnitude larger than 4. The Taoyuan earthquake sequence occurred during the TAIGER (Taiwan Integrated Geodynamic Research) project which is to image lithospheric structure of Taiwan orogeny. The high-resolution waveform data of this sequence were well-recorded by a large number of recording stations belong to several different permanent and TAIGER networks all around Taiwan. We had collected the waveform data and archived to a mega database. Then, we had identified 2,340 events from database in the preliminary locating process by using 1-D velocity model. In this study, we applied the double-difference tomography to investigate not only the fault geometry of the main shock but also the detailed 3-D velocity structure in this area. A total of 3,034 events were selected from preliminary locating result and CWBSN catalog in the vicinity. The resulting aftershocks are extended along the NE-SW direction and located on a 45° SE-dipping plane which agrees to one of the nodal planes of Global CMT solution (strike = 45°, dip = 40° and rake = 119°). We can identify a clear low-velocity area which is enclosed by events next to the main shock in the final 3D velocity model. We also recognized a 45°-dipping zone which is extended to the ground surface with low-velocity; meanwhile, velocity structure variation in study area correspond with major geologic units in Taiwan.

The Accidental Spokesperson - Science Communication during the 2010-2011 Christchurch, NZ Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Furlong, K. P.

2015-12-01

Beginning September 4, 2010, with a Mw 7.1 earthquake, a multi-year earthquake sequence changed life in Canterbury NZ. Information communicated by a core group of university-based earthquake scientists provided accessible information to the general public, the press, and policy makers. Although at the start of this prolonged sequence, no one anticipated its longevity nor its impact, this initial (and largest) event did catalyze a demand from the public and policy makers for information and led to some important lessons in how to communicate science to a broad audience as an event unfolds and when it is personally important to the general public. Earthquakes are neither new nor rare to New Zealand, but the Christchurch area was seen as likely suffering only from the far-field effects of a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault or Marlborough fault system. Policy makers had planned and expected that another city such as Wellington would be where they would need to respond. As a visiting faculty at the University of Canterbury, with expertise in earthquake science, I was entrained and engaged in the response - both the scientific and communication aspects. It soon became clear that formal press releases and statements from government ministries and agencies did little to address the questions and uncertainties that the public, the press, and even the policy makers had. Rather, a series of public lectures, broad ranging discussions with the media (both print and radio/television), and OpEd pieces provided by this small group of earthquake focused faculty at the University of Canterbury provided the background information, best estimates of what could occur in the future, and why Earth was acting as it was. This filled a critical gap in science information going to the public, and helped build a level of trust in the public that became critically needed after the situation escalated with subsequent damaging events through early-mid 2011, and onward.

Automatic analysis of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake aftershock sequence.

Science.gov (United States)

Baillard, C.; Lyon-Caen, H.; Bollinger, L.; Rietbrock, A.; Letort, J.; Adhikari, L. B.

2016-12-01

The Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, that partially ruptured the Main Himalayan Thrust North of Kathmandu on the 25th April 2015, was the largest and most catastrophic earthquake striking Nepal since the great M8.4 1934 earthquake. This mainshock was followed by multiple aftershocks, among them, two notable events that occurred on the 12th May with magnitudes of 7.3 Mw and 6.3 Mw. Due to these recent events it became essential for the authorities and for the scientific community to better evaluate the seismic risk in the region through a detailed analysis of the earthquake catalog, amongst others, the spatio-temporal distribution of the Gorkha aftershock sequence. Here we complement this first study by doing a microseismic study using seismic data coming from the eastern part of the Nepalese Seismological Center network associated to one broadband station in Everest. Our primary goal is to deliver an accurate catalog of the aftershock sequence. Due to the exceptional number of events detected we performed an automatic picking/locating procedure which can be splitted in 4 steps: 1) Coarse picking of the onsets using a classical STA/LTA picker, 2) phase association of picked onsets to detect and declare seismic events, 3) Kurtosis pick refinement around theoretical arrival times to increase picking and location accuracy and, 4) local magnitude calculation based amplitude of waveforms. This procedure is time efficient ( 1 sec/event), reduces considerably the location uncertainties ( 2 to 5 km errors) and increases the number of events detected compared to manual processing. Indeed, the automatic detection rate is 10 times higher than the manual detection rate. By comparing to the USGS catalog we were able to give a new attenuation law to compute local magnitudes in the region. A detailed analysis of the seismicity shows a clear migration toward the east of the region and a sudden decrease of seismicity 100 km east of Kathmandu which may reveal the presence of a tectonic

Multifractal analysis of 2001 Mw 7 . 7 Bhuj earthquake sequence in Gujarat, Western India

Science.gov (United States)

Aggarwal, Sandeep Kumar; Pastén, Denisse; Khan, Prosanta Kumar

2017-12-01

The 2001 Mw 7 . 7 Bhuj mainshock seismic sequence in the Kachchh area, occurring during 2001 to 2012, has been analyzed using mono-fractal and multi-fractal dimension spectrum analysis technique. This region was characterized by frequent moderate shocks of Mw ≥ 5 . 0 for more than a decade since the occurrence of 2001 Bhuj earthquake. The present study is therefore important for precursory analysis using this sequence. The selected long-sequence has been investigated first time for completeness magnitude Mc 3.0 using the maximum curvature method. Multi-fractal Dq spectrum (Dq ∼ q) analysis was carried out using effective window-length of 200 earthquakes with a moving window of 20 events overlapped by 180 events. The robustness of the analysis has been tested by considering the magnitude completeness correction term of 0.2 to Mc 3.0 as Mc 3.2 and we have tested the error in the calculus of Dq for each magnitude threshold. On the other hand, the stability of the analysis has been investigated down to the minimum magnitude of Mw ≥ 2 . 6 in the sequence. The analysis shows the multi-fractal dimension spectrum Dq decreases with increasing of clustering of events with time before a moderate magnitude earthquake in the sequence, which alternatively accounts for non-randomness in the spatial distribution of epicenters and its self-organized criticality. Similar behavior is ubiquitous elsewhere around the globe, and warns for proximity of a damaging seismic event in an area. OS: Please confirm math roman or italics in abs.

Conceptualizing ¬the Abstractions of Earthquakes Through an Instructional Sequence Using SeisMac and the Rapid Earthquake Viewer

Science.gov (United States)

Taber, J.; Hubenthal, M.; Wysession, M.

2007-12-01

Newsworthy earthquakes provide an engaging hook for students in Earth science classes, particularly when discussing their effects on people and the landscape. However, engaging students in an analysis of earthquakes that extends beyond death and damage, is frequently hampered by the abstraction of recorded ground motion data in the form of raw seismograms and the inability of most students to personally relate to ground accelerations. To overcome these challenges, an educational sequence has been developed using two software tools: SeisMac by Daniel Griscom, and the Rapid Earthquake Viewer (REV) developed by the University of South Carolina in collaboration with IRIS and DLESE. This sequence presents a unique opportunity for Earth Science teachers to "create" foundational experiences for students as they construction a framework of understanding of abstract concepts. The first activity is designed to introduce the concept of a three-component seismogram and to directly address the very abstract nature of seismograms through a kinesthetic experience. Students first learn to take the pulse of their classroom through a guided exploration of SeisMac, which displays the output of the laptop's built-in Sudden Motion Sensor (a 3-component accelerometer). This exploration allows students to view a 3-component seismogram as they move or tap the laptop and encourages them to propose and carry out experiments to explain the meaning of the 3-component seismogram. Once completed students are then asked to apply this new knowledge to a real 3-component seismogram printed from REV. Next the activity guides students through the process of identifying P and S waves and using SeisMac to connect the physical motion of the laptop to the "wiggles" they see on the SeisMac display and then comparing those to the "wiggles" they see on their seismogram. At this point students are more fully prepared to engage in an S-P location exercise such as those included in many state standards

A record of large earthquakes during the past two millennia on the southern Green Valley Fault, California

Science.gov (United States)

Lienkaemper, James J.; Baldwin, John N.; Turner, Robert; Sickler, Robert R.; Brown, Johnathan

2013-01-01

We document evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes (events) at two trench sites on the southern Green Valley fault, California (SGVF). The 75-80-km long dextral SGVF creeps ~1-4 mm/yr. We identify stratigraphic horizons disrupted by upward-flowering shears and in-filled fissures unlikely to have formed from creep alone. The Mason Rd site exhibits four events from ~1013 CE to the Present. The Lopes Ranch site (LR, 12 km to the south) exhibits three events from 18 BCE to Present including the most recent event (MRE), 1610 ±52 yr CE (1σ) and a two-event interval (18 BCE-238 CE) isolated by a millennium of low deposition. Using Oxcal to model the timing of the 4-event earthquake sequence from radiocarbon data and the LR MRE yields a mean recurrence interval (RI or μ) of 199 ±82 yr (1σ) and ±35 yr (standard error of the mean), the first based on geologic data. The time since the most recent earthquake (open window since MRE) is 402 yr ±52 yr, well past μ~200 yr. The shape of the probability density function (pdf) of the average RI from Oxcal resembles a Brownian Passage Time (BPT) pdf (i.e., rather than normal) that permits rarer longer ruptures potentially involving the Berryessa and Hunting Creek sections of the northernmost GVF. The model coefficient of variation (cv, σ/μ) is 0.41, but a larger value (cv ~0.6) fits better when using BPT. A BPT pdf with μ of 250 yr and cv of 0.6 yields 30-yr rupture probabilities of 20-25% versus a Poisson probability of 11-17%.

A remote sensing assessment of the impact of the 2010 Maule, Chile earthquake (Mw 8.8) on the volcanoes of the southern Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Pritchard, M. E.; Welch, M.; Jay, J.; Button, N.

2011-12-01

There are tantalizing, but controversial, indications that great earthquakes affect arc-wide volcanic activity. For example, analysis of historic eruptions at volcanoes of the southern Andes has shown that 3-4 eruptions were likely seismically triggered by Mw > 8 earthquakes in the Chile subduction zone -- particularly the 1906 and 1960 earthquakes (e.g., Watt et al., 2009). However, the 27 February 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake that ruptured the subduction zone between the 1960 and 1906 earthquakes does not appear to have triggered 3-4 volcanic eruptions in the same area in the 12 months after the event. In an effort to understand the relation between a large earthquake and volcanic unrest, we use a variety of satellite instruments to look for more subtle (i.e., not leading to eruption), but detectable change in thermal or deformation activity at the volcanoes of the southern Andes after the Maule earthquake and its aftershocks. For all of the volcanoes in the catalog of the Smithsonian Institution (approximately 80), we use nighttime MODIS and ASTER data to assess the thermal activity and ALOS InSAR data to characterize the surface deformation before and after the earthquake. The ALOS InSAR data are not ideal for detecting changes in deformation before and after the earthquake because of the small number of acquisitions in austral summer as well as ionospheric and tropospheric artifacts. We estimate that we could detect deformation > 5 cm/year. Similarly, the ASTER and MODIS data suffer respectively from poor temporal and spatial resolution of thermal anomalies. We update previous InSAR work that identified at least 8 areas of volcanic deformation in the southern Andes related to eruptive processes, subsidence of past lava flows, or surface uplift not associated with an eruption (Fournier et al., 2010). Of greatest interest are the two volcanic areas with the largest deformation signals between 2007-2008 (both > 15 cm/yr in the radar line of sight): Laguna

1/f and the Earthquake Problem: Scaling constraints that facilitate operational earthquake forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

2012-12-01

The difficulty of forecasting earthquakes can fundamentally be attributed to the self-similar, or "1/f", nature of seismic sequences. Specifically, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their magnitude m, or more accurately to their scalar moment M. With respect to this "1/f problem," it can be argued that catalog selection (or equivalently, determining catalog constraints) constitutes the most significant challenge to seismicity based earthquake forecasting. Here, we address and introduce a potential solution to this most daunting problem. Specifically, we introduce a framework to constrain, or partition, an earthquake catalog (a study region) in order to resolve local seismicity. In particular, we combine Gutenberg-Richter (GR), rupture length, and Omori scaling with various empirical measurements to relate the size (spatial and temporal extents) of a study area (or bins within a study area) to the local earthquake magnitude potential - the magnitude of earthquake the region is expected to experience. From this, we introduce a new type of time dependent hazard map for which the tuning parameter space is nearly fully constrained. In a similar fashion, by combining various scaling relations and also by incorporating finite extents (rupture length, area, and duration) as constraints, we develop a method to estimate the Omori (temporal) and spatial aftershock decay parameters as a function of the parent earthquake's magnitude m. From this formulation, we develop an ETAS type model that overcomes many point-source limitations of contemporary ETAS. These models demonstrate promise with respect to earthquake forecasting applications. Moreover, the methods employed suggest a general framework whereby earthquake and other complex-system, 1/f type, problems can be constrained from scaling relations and finite extents.; Record-breaking hazard map of southern California, 2012-08-06. "Warm" colors indicate local acceleration (elevated hazard

Complex rupture process of the Mw 7.8, 2016, Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand, and its aftershock sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Cesca, S.; Zhang, Y.; Mouslopoulou, V.; Wang, R.; Saul, J.; Savage, M.; Heimann, S.; Kufner, S.-K.; Oncken, O.; Dahm, T.

2017-11-01

The M7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake that struck the northeastern South Island, New Zealand, on November 14, 2016 (local time), is one of the largest ever instrumentally recorded earthquakes in New Zealand. It occurred at the southern termination of the Hikurangi subduction margin, where the subducting Pacific Plate transitions into the dextral Alpine transform fault. The earthquake produced significant distributed uplift along the north-eastern part of the South Island, reaching a peak amplitude of ∼8 m, which was accompanied by large (≥10 m) horizontal coseismic displacements at the ground surface along discrete active faults. The seismic waveforms' expression of the main shock indicate a complex rupture process. Early automated centroid moment tensor solutions indicated a strong non-double-couple term, which supports a complex rupture involving multiple faults. The hypocentral distribution of aftershocks, which appears diffuse over a broad region, clusters spatially along lineaments with different orientations. A key question of global interest is to shed light on the mechanism with which such a complex rupture occurred, and whether the underlying plate-interface was involved in the rupture. The consequences for seismic hazard of such a distributed, shallow faulting is important to be assessed. We perform a broad seismological analysis, combining regional and teleseismic seismograms, GPS and InSAR, to determine the rupture process of the main shock and moment tensors of 118 aftershocks down to Mw 4.2. The joint interpretation of the main rupture and aftershock sequence allow reconstruction of the geometry, and suggests sequential activation and slip distribution on at least three major active fault domains. We find that the rupture nucleated as a weak strike-slip event along the Humps Fault, which progressively propagated northward onto a shallow reverse fault, where most of the seismic moment was released, before it triggered slip on a second set of strike

Spatial and Temporal Stress Drop Variations of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Miyake, H.

2013-12-01

The 2011 Tohoku earthquake sequence consists of foreshocks, mainshock, aftershocks, and repeating earthquakes. To quantify spatial and temporal stress drop variations is important for understanding M9-class megathrust earthquakes. Variability and spatial and temporal pattern of stress drop is a basic information for rupture dynamics as well as useful to source modeling. As pointed in the ground motion prediction equations by Campbell and Bozorgnia [2008, Earthquake Spectra], mainshock-aftershock pairs often provide significant decrease of stress drop. We here focus strong motion records before and after the Tohoku earthquake, and analyze source spectral ratios considering azimuth- and distance dependency [Miyake et al., 2001, GRL]. Due to the limitation of station locations on land, spatial and temporal stress drop variations are estimated by adjusting shifts from the omega-squared source spectral model. The adjustment is based on the stochastic Green's function simulations of source spectra considering azimuth- and distance dependency. We assumed the same Green's functions for event pairs for each station, both the propagation path and site amplification effects are cancelled out. Precise studies of spatial and temporal stress drop variations have been performed [e.g., Allmann and Shearer, 2007, JGR], this study targets the relations between stress drop vs. progression of slow slip prior to the Tohoku earthquake by Kato et al. [2012, Science] and plate structures. Acknowledgement: This study is partly supported by ERI Joint Research (2013-B-05). We used the JMA unified earthquake catalogue and K-NET, KiK-net, and F-net data provided by NIED.

Bayesian inference and interpretation of centroid moment tensors of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, Kyushu, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Hallo, Miroslav; Asano, Kimiyuki; Gallovič, František

2017-09-01

On April 16, 2016, Kumamoto prefecture in Kyushu region, Japan, was devastated by a shallow M JMA7.3 earthquake. The series of foreshocks started by M JMA6.5 foreshock 28 h before the mainshock. They have originated in Hinagu fault zone intersecting the mainshock Futagawa fault zone; hence, the tectonic background for this earthquake sequence is rather complex. Here we infer centroid moment tensors (CMTs) for 11 events with M JMA between 4.8 and 6.5, using strong motion records of the K-NET, KiK-net and F-net networks. We use upgraded Bayesian full-waveform inversion code ISOLA-ObsPy, which takes into account uncertainty of the velocity model. Such an approach allows us to reliably assess uncertainty of the CMT parameters including the centroid position. The solutions show significant systematic spatial and temporal variations throughout the sequence. Foreshocks are right-lateral steeply dipping strike-slip events connected to the NE-SW shear zone. Those located close to the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones are dipping slightly to ESE, while those in the southern area are dipping to WNW. Contrarily, aftershocks are mostly normal dip-slip events, being related to the N-S extensional tectonic regime. Most of the deviatoric moment tensors contain only minor CLVD component, which can be attributed to the velocity model uncertainty. Nevertheless, two of the CMTs involve a significant CLVD component, which may reflect complex rupture process. Decomposition of those moment tensors into two pure shear moment tensors suggests combined right-lateral strike-slip and normal dip-slip mechanisms, consistent with the tectonic settings of the intersection of the Hinagu and Futagawa fault zones.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults.

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, Jeffrey J; Boettcher, Margaret S; Jordan, Thomas H

2005-03-24

East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.

Southern Peru desert shattered by the great 2001 earthquake: Implications for paleoseismic and paleo-El Niño–Southern Oscillation records

OpenAIRE

Keefer, David K.; Moseley, Michael E.

2004-01-01

In the desert region around the coastal city of Ilo, the great southern Peru earthquake of June 23, 2001 (8.2–8.4 moment magnitude), produced intense and widespread ground-failure effects. These effects included abundant landslides, pervasive ground cracking, microfracturing of surficial hillslope materials, collapse of drainage banks over long stretches, widening of hillside rills, and lengthening of first-order tributary channels. We have coined the term “shattered landscape” to describe th...

Sequence crystallization during isotherm evaporation of southern ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Southern Algerian's natural brine sampled from chott Baghdad may be a source of mineral salts with a high economic value. These salts are recoverable by simple solar evaporation. Indeed, during isothermal solar evaporation, it is possible to recover mineral salts and to determine the precipitation sequences of different ...

Diverse rupture modes for surface-deforming upper plate earthquakes in the southern Puget Lowland of Washington State

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Alan R.; Personius, Stephen F.; Sherrod, Brian L.; Kelsey, Harvey M.; Johnson, Samuel Y.; Bradley, Lee-Ann; Wells, Ray E.

2014-01-01

Earthquake prehistory of the southern Puget Lowland, in the north-south compressive regime of the migrating Cascadia forearc, reflects diverse earthquake rupture modes with variable recurrence. Stratigraphy and Bayesian analyses of previously reported and new 14C ages in trenches and cores along backthrust scarps in the Seattle fault zone restrict a large earthquake to 1040–910 cal yr B.P. (2σ), an interval that includes the time of the M 7–7.5 Restoration Point earthquake. A newly identified surface-rupturing earthquake along the Waterman Point backthrust dates to 940–380 cal yr B.P., bringing the number of earthquakes in the Seattle fault zone in the past 3500 yr to 4 or 5. Whether scarps record earthquakes of moderate (M 5.5–6.0) or large (M 6.5–7.0) magnitude, backthrusts of the Seattle fault zone may slip during moderate to large earthquakes every few hundred years for periods of 1000–2000 yr, and then not slip for periods of at least several thousands of years. Four new fault scarp trenches in the Tacoma fault zone show evidence of late Holocene folding and faulting about the time of a large earthquake or earthquakes inferred from widespread coseismic subsidence ca. 1000 cal yr B.P.; 12 ages from 8 sites in the Tacoma fault zone limit the earthquakes to 1050–980 cal yr B.P. Evidence is too sparse to determine whether a large earthquake was closely predated or postdated by other earthquakes in the Tacoma basin, but the scarp of the Tacoma fault was formed by multiple earthquakes. In the northeast-striking Saddle Mountain deformation zone, along the western limit of the Seattle and Tacoma fault zones, analysis of previous ages limits earthquakes to 1200–310 cal yr B.P. The prehistory clarifies earthquake clustering in the central Puget Lowland, but cannot resolve potential structural links among the three Holocene fault zones.

Holocene slip rates along the San Andreas Fault System in the San Gorgonio Pass and implications for large earthquakes in southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Heermance, Richard V.; Yule, Doug

2017-06-01

The San Gorgonio Pass (SGP) in southern California contains a 40 km long region of structural complexity where the San Andreas Fault (SAF) bifurcates into a series of oblique-slip faults with unknown slip history. We combine new 10Be exposure ages (Qt4: 8600 (+2100, -2200) and Qt3: 5700 (+1400, -1900) years B.P.) and a radiocarbon age (1260 ± 60 years B.P.) from late Holocene terraces with scarp displacement of these surfaces to document a Holocene slip rate of 5.7 (+2.7, -1.5) mm/yr combined across two faults. Our preferred slip rate is 37-49% of the average slip rates along the SAF outside the SGP (i.e., Coachella Valley and San Bernardino sections) and implies that strain is transferred off the SAF in this area. Earthquakes here most likely occur in very large, throughgoing SAF events at a lower recurrence than elsewhere on the SAF, so that only approximately one third of SAF ruptures penetrate or originate in the pass.Plain Language SummaryHow large are earthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault? The answer to this question depends on whether or not the earthquake is contained only along individual fault sections, such as the Coachella Valley section north of Palm Springs, or the rupture crosses multiple sections including the area through the San Gorgonio Pass. We have determined the age and offset of faulted stream deposits within the San Gorgonio Pass to document slip rates of these faults over the last 10,000 years. Our results indicate a long-term slip rate of 6 mm/yr, which is almost 1/2 of the rates east and west of this area. These new rates, combined with faulted geomorphic surfaces, imply that large magnitude earthquakes must occasionally rupture a 300 km length of the San Andreas Fault from the Salton Sea to the Mojave Desert. Although many ( 65%) earthquakes along the southern San Andreas Fault likely do not rupture through the pass, our new results suggest that large >Mw 7.5 earthquakes are possible on the southern San Andreas Fault and likely

Identifying Active Faults by Improving Earthquake Locations with InSAR Data and Bayesian Estimation: The 2004 Tabuk (Saudi Arabia) Earthquake Sequence

KAUST Repository

Xu, Wenbin

2015-02-03

A sequence of shallow earthquakes of magnitudes ≤5.1 took place in 2004 on the eastern flank of the Red Sea rift, near the city of Tabuk in northwestern Saudi Arabia. The earthquakes could not be well located due to the sparse distribution of seismic stations in the region, making it difficult to associate the activity with one of the many mapped faults in the area and thus to improve the assessment of seismic hazard in the region. We used Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data from the European Space Agency’s Envisat and ERS‐2 satellites to improve the location and source parameters of the largest event of the sequence (Mw 5.1), which occurred on 22 June 2004. The mainshock caused a small but distinct ∼2.7  cm displacement signal in the InSAR data, which reveals where the earthquake took place and shows that seismic reports mislocated it by 3–16 km. With Bayesian estimation, we modeled the InSAR data using a finite‐fault model in a homogeneous elastic half‐space and found the mainshock activated a normal fault, roughly 70 km southeast of the city of Tabuk. The southwest‐dipping fault has a strike that is roughly parallel to the Red Sea rift, and we estimate the centroid depth of the earthquake to be ∼3.2  km. Projection of the fault model uncertainties to the surface indicates that one of the west‐dipping normal faults located in the area and oriented parallel to the Red Sea is a likely source for the mainshock. The results demonstrate how InSAR can be used to improve locations of moderate‐size earthquakes and thus to identify currently active faults.

Identifying Active Faults by Improving Earthquake Locations with InSAR Data and Bayesian Estimation: The 2004 Tabuk (Saudi Arabia) Earthquake Sequence

KAUST Repository

Xu, Wenbin; Dutta, Rishabh; Jonsson, Sigurjon

2015-01-01

A sequence of shallow earthquakes of magnitudes ≤5.1 took place in 2004 on the eastern flank of the Red Sea rift, near the city of Tabuk in northwestern Saudi Arabia. The earthquakes could not be well located due to the sparse distribution of seismic stations in the region, making it difficult to associate the activity with one of the many mapped faults in the area and thus to improve the assessment of seismic hazard in the region. We used Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data from the European Space Agency’s Envisat and ERS‐2 satellites to improve the location and source parameters of the largest event of the sequence (Mw 5.1), which occurred on 22 June 2004. The mainshock caused a small but distinct ∼2.7  cm displacement signal in the InSAR data, which reveals where the earthquake took place and shows that seismic reports mislocated it by 3–16 km. With Bayesian estimation, we modeled the InSAR data using a finite‐fault model in a homogeneous elastic half‐space and found the mainshock activated a normal fault, roughly 70 km southeast of the city of Tabuk. The southwest‐dipping fault has a strike that is roughly parallel to the Red Sea rift, and we estimate the centroid depth of the earthquake to be ∼3.2  km. Projection of the fault model uncertainties to the surface indicates that one of the west‐dipping normal faults located in the area and oriented parallel to the Red Sea is a likely source for the mainshock. The results demonstrate how InSAR can be used to improve locations of moderate‐size earthquakes and thus to identify currently active faults.

20 cool facts about the New Madrid Seismic Zone-Commemorating the bicentennial of the New Madrid earthquake sequence, December 1811-February 1812 [poster

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, R.A.; McCallister, N.S.; Dart, R.L.

2011-01-01

This poster summarizes a few of the more significant facts about the series of large earthquakes that struck the New Madrid seismic zone of southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent parts of Tennessee and Kentucky from December 1811 to February 1812. Three earthquakes in this sequence had a magnitude (M) of 7.0 or greater. The first earthquake occurred on December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m.; the second on January 23, 1812, at 9 a.m.; and the third on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These three earthquakes were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. The mainshocks were followed by many hundreds of aftershocks that occurred over the next decade. Many of the aftershocks were major earthquakes themselves. The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2-3 times as large as the strongly shaken area of the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake. Geologic studies show that the 1811-1812 sequence was not an isolated event in the New Madrid region. The 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence was preceded by at least two other similar sequences in about A.D. 1450 and A.D. 900. Research also indicates that other large earthquakes have occurred in the region surrounding the main New Madrid seismicity trends in the past 5,000 years or so.

Triggered surface slips in southern California associated with the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja California, Mexico, earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Rymer, Michael J.; Treiman, Jerome A.; Kendrick, Katherine J.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Bilham, Roger; Wei, Meng; Fielding, Eric J.; Hernandez, Janis L.; Olson, Brian P.E.; Irvine, Pamela J.; Knepprath, Nichole; Sickler, Robert R.; Tong, Xiaopeng; Siem, Martin E.

2011-01-01

The April 4, 2010 (Mw7.2), El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja California, Mexico, earthquake is the strongest earthquake to shake the Salton Trough area since the 1992 (Mw7.3) Landers earthquake. Similar to the Landers event, ground-surface fracturing occurred on multiple faults in the trough. However, the 2010 event triggered surface slip on more faults in the central Salton Trough than previous earthquakes, including multiple faults in the Yuha Desert area, the southwestern section of the Salton Trough. In the central Salton Trough, surface fracturing occurred along the southern San Andreas, Coyote Creek, Superstition Hills, Wienert, Kalin, and Imperial Faults and along the Brawley Fault Zone, all of which are known to have slipped in historical time, either in primary (tectonic) slip and/or in triggered slip. Surface slip in association with the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake is at least the eighth time in the past 42 years that a local or regional earthquake has triggered slip along faults in the central Salton Trough. In the southwestern part of the Salton Trough, surface fractures (triggered slip) occurred in a broad area of the Yuha Desert. This is the first time that triggered slip has been observed in the southwestern Salton Trough.

The 2007 Nazko, British Columbia, earthquake sequence: Injection of magma deep in the crust beneath the Anahim volcanic belt

Science.gov (United States)

Cassidy, J.F.; Balfour, N.; Hickson, C.; Kao, H.; White, Rickie; Caplan-Auerbach, J.; Mazzotti, S.; Rogers, Gary C.; Al-Khoubbi, I.; Bird, A.L.; Esteban, L.; Kelman, M.; Hutchinson, J.; McCormack, D.

2011-01-01

On 9 October 2007, an unusual sequence of earthquakes began in central British Columbia about 20 km west of the Nazko cone, the most recent (circa 7200 yr) volcanic center in the Anahim volcanic belt. Within 25 hr, eight earthquakes of magnitude 2.3-2.9 occurred in a region where no earthquakes had previously been recorded. During the next three weeks, more than 800 microearthquakes were located (and many more detected), most at a depth of 25-31 km and within a radius of about 5 km. After about two months, almost all activity ceased. The clear P- and S-wave arrivals indicated that these were high-frequency (volcanic-tectonic) earthquakes and the b value of 1.9 that we calculated is anomalous for crustal earthquakes but consistent with volcanic-related events. Analysis of receiver functions at a station immediately above the seismicity indicated a Moho near 30 km depth. Precise relocation of the seismicity using a double-difference method suggested a horizontal migration at the rate of about 0:5 km=d, with almost all events within the lowermost crust. Neither harmonic tremor nor long-period events were observed; however, some spasmodic bursts were recorded and determined to be colocated with the earthquake hypocenters. These observations are all very similar to a deep earthquake sequence recorded beneath Lake Tahoe, California, in 2003-2004. Based on these remarkable similarities, we interpret the Nazko sequence as an indication of an injection of magma into the lower crust beneath the Anahim volcanic belt. This magma injection fractures rock, producing high-frequency, volcanic-tectonic earthquakes and spasmodic bursts.

Analysis of the 2005-2016 Earthquake Sequence in Northern Iran Using the Visibility Graph Method

Science.gov (United States)

Khoshnevis, Naeem; Taborda, Ricardo; Azizzadeh-Roodpish, Shima; Telesca, Luciano

2017-11-01

We present an analysis of the seismicity of northern Iran in the period between 2005 and 2016 using a recently introduced method based on concepts of graph theory. The method relies on the inter-event visibility defined in terms of a connectivity degree parameter, k, which is correlated with the earthquake magnitude, M. Previous studies show that the slope m of the line fitting the k- M plot by the least squares method also observes a relationship with the b value from the Gutenberg-Richter law, thus rendering the graph analysis useful to examine the seismicity of a region. These correlations seem to hold for the analysis of relatively small sequences of earthquakes, offering the possibility of studying seismicity parameters in time. We apply this approach to the case of the seismicity of northern Iran, using an earthquake catalog for the tectonic seismic regions of Azerbaijan, Alborz, and Kopeh Dagh. We use results drawn for this region with the visibility graph approach in combination with results from other similar studies to further improve the universal relationship between m and b, and show that the visibility graph approach can be considered as a valid alternative for analyzing regional seismicity properties and earthquake sequences.

Site Effects Study In Athens (greece) Using The 7th September 1999 Earthquake Aftershock Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Serpetsidaki, A.; Sokos, E.

On 7 September 1999 at 11:56:50 GMT, an earthquake of Mw=5.9 occurred at Athens capital of Greece. The epicenter was located in the Northwest area of Parnitha Moun- tain at 18km distance from the city centre. This earthquake was one of the most de- structive in Greece during the modern times. The intensity of the earthquake reached IX in the Northwest territories of the city and caused the death of 143 people and seri- ous structural damage in many buildings. On the 13th of September the Seismological Laboratory of Patras University, installed a seismic network of 30 stations in order to observe the evolution of the aftershock sequence. This temporary seismic network remained in the area of Attika for 50 days and recorded a significant part of the af- tershock sequence. In this paper we use the high quality recordings of this network to investigate the influence of the surface geology to the seismic motion, on sites within the epicentral area, which suffered the most during this earthquake. We applied the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratio method on noise and on earthquake records and the obtained results exhibit very good agreement. Finally we compare the results with the geological conditions of the study area and the damage distribution. Most of the obtained amplification levels were low with an exemption in the site of Ano Liosia were a significant amount of damage was observed and the results indicate that the earthquake motion was amplified four times. Based on the above we conclude that the damages in the city of Athens were due to source effects rather than site effects.

Products and Services Available from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) and the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN)

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, S. E.; Yu, E.; Bhaskaran, A.; Chowdhury, F. R.; Meisenhelter, S.; Hutton, K.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Clayton, R. W.

2011-12-01

Currently, the SCEDC archives continuous and triggered data from nearly 8400 data channels from 425 SCSN recorded stations, processing and archiving an average of 6.4 TB of continuous waveforms and 12,000 earthquakes each year. The SCEDC provides public access to these earthquake parametric and waveform data through its website www.data.scec.org and through client applications such as STP and DHI. This poster will describe the most significant developments at the SCEDC during 2011. New website design: ? The SCEDC has revamped its website. The changes make it easier for users to search the archive, discover updates and new content. These changes also improve our ability to manage and update the site. New data holdings: ? Post processing on El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 sequence continues. To date there have been 11847 events reviewed. Updates are available in the earthquake catalog immediately. ? A double difference catalog (Hauksson et. al 2011) spanning 1981 to 6/30/11 will be available for download at www.data.scec.org and available via STP. ? A focal mechanism catalog determined by Yang et al. 2011 is available for distribution at www.data.scec.org. ? Waveforms from Southern California NetQuake stations are now being stored in the SCEDC archive and available via STP as event associated waveforms. Amplitudes from these stations are also being stored in the archive and used by ShakeMap. ? As part of a NASA/AIST project in collaboration with JPL and SIO, the SCEDC will receive real time 1 sps streams of GPS displacement solutions from the California Real Time Network (http://sopac.ucsd.edu/projects/realtime; Genrich and Bock, 2006, J. Geophys. Res.). These channels will be archived at the SCEDC as miniSEED waveforms, which then can be distributed to the user community via applications such as STP. Improvements in the user tool STP: ? STP sac output now includes picks from the SCSN. New archival methods: ? The SCEDC is exploring the feasibility of archiving and distributing

One Basin, One Stress Regime, One Orientation of Seismogenic Basement Faults, Variable Spatio-Temporal Slip Histories: Lessons from Fort Worth Basin Induced Earthquake Sequences

Science.gov (United States)

DeShon, H. R.; Brudzinski, M.; Frohlich, C.; Hayward, C.; Jeong, S.; Hornbach, M. J.; Magnani, M. B.; Ogwari, P.; Quinones, L.; Scales, M. M.; Stump, B. W.; Sufri, O.; Walter, J. I.

2017-12-01

Since October 2008, the Fort Worth basin in north Texas has experienced over 30 magnitude (M) 3.0+ earthquakes, including one M4.0. Five named earthquake sequences have been recorded by local seismic networks: DFW Airport, Cleburne-Johnson County, Azle, Irving-Dallas, and Venus-Johnson County. Earthquakes have occurred on northeast (NE)-southwest (SW) trending Precambrian basement faults and within the overlying Ellenburger limestone unit used for wastewater disposal. Focal mechanisms indicate primarily normal faulting, and stress inversions indicate maximum regional horizontal stress strikes 20-30° NE. The seismogenic sections of the faults in either the basement or within the Ellenburger appear optimally oriented for failure within the modern stress regime. Stress drop estimates range from 10 to 75 bars, with little variability between and within the named sequences, and the values are consistent with intraplate earthquake stress drops in natural tectonic settings. However, the spatio-temporal history of each sequence relative to wastewater injection data varies. The May 2015 M4.0 Venus earthquake, for example, is only the largest of what is nearly 10 years of earthquake activity on a single fault structure. Here, maximum earthquake size has increased with time and exhibits a log-linear relationship to cumulative injected volume from 5 nearby wells. At the DFW airport, where the causative well was shut-in within a few months of the initial earthquakes and soon after the well began operation, we document migration away from the injector on the same fault for nearly 6 km sporadically over 5 years. The Irving-Dallas and Azle sequences, like DFW airport, appear to have started rather abruptly with just a few small magnitude earthquakes in the weeks or months preceding the significant set of magnitude 3.5+ earthquakes associated with each sequence. There are no nearby (<10 km) injection operations to the Irving-Dallas sequence and the Azle linked wells operated for

Seismotectonic framework of the 2010 February 27 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, Gavin P.; Bergman, Eric; Johnson, Kendra J.; Benz, Harley M.; Brown, Lucy; Meltzer, Anne S.

2013-01-01

After the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake, an international collaboration involving teams and instruments from Chile, the US, the UK, France and Germany established the International Maule Aftershock Deployment temporary network over the source region of the event to facilitate detailed, open-access studies of the aftershock sequence. Using data from the first 9-months of this deployment, we have analyzed the detailed spatial distribution of over 2500 well-recorded aftershocks. All earthquakes have been relocated using a hypocentral decomposition algorithm to study the details of and uncertainties in both their relative and absolute locations. We have computed regional moment tensor solutions for the largest of these events to produce a catalogue of 465 mechanisms, and have used all of these data to study the spatial distribution of the aftershock sequence with respect to the Chilean megathrust. We refine models of co-seismic slip distribution of the Maule earthquake, and show how small changes in fault geometries assumed in teleseismic finite fault modelling significantly improve fits to regional GPS data, implying that the accuracy of rapid teleseismic fault models can be substantially improved by consideration of existing fault geometry model databases. We interpret all of these data in an integrated seismotectonic framework for the Maule earthquake rupture and its aftershock sequence, and discuss the relationships between co-seismic rupture and aftershock distributions. While the majority of aftershocks are interplate thrust events located away from regions of maximum co-seismic slip, interesting clusters of aftershocks are identified in the lower plate at both ends of the main shock rupture, implying internal deformation of the slab in response to large slip on the plate boundary interface. We also perform Coulomb stress transfer calculations to compare aftershock locations and mechanisms to static stress changes following the Maule rupture. Without the

Assessment of earthquake-induced landslides hazard in El Salvador after the 2001 earthquakes using macroseismic analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Esposito, Eliana; Violante, Crescenzo; Giunta, Giuseppe; Ángel Hernández, Miguel

2016-04-01

Two strong earthquakes and a number of smaller aftershocks struck El Salvador in the year 2001. The January 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 7.7, occurred along the Cocos plate, 40 km off El Salvador southern coast. It resulted in about 1300 deaths and widespread damage, mainly due to massive landsliding. Two of the largest earthquake-induced landslides, Las Barioleras and Las Colinas (about 2x105 m3) produced major damage to buildings and infrastructures and 500 fatalities. A neighborhood in Santa Tecla, west of San Salvador, was destroyed. The February 13 2001 earthquake, Mw 6.5, occurred 40 km east-southeast of San Salvador. This earthquake caused over 300 fatalities and triggered several landslides over an area of 2,500 km2 mostly in poorly consolidated volcaniclastic deposits. The La Leona landslide (5-7x105 m3) caused 12 fatalities and extensive damage to the Panamerican Highway. Two very large landslides of 1.5 km3 and 12 km3 produced hazardous barrier lakes at Rio El Desague and Rio Jiboa, respectively. More than 16.000 landslides occurred throughout the country after both quakes; most of them occurred in pyroclastic deposits, with a volume less than 1x103m3. The present work aims to define the relationship between the above described earthquake intensity, size and areal distribution of induced landslides, as well as to refine the earthquake intensity in sparsely populated zones by using landslide effects. Landslides triggered by the 2001 seismic sequences provided useful indication for a realistic seismic hazard assessment, providing a basis for understanding, evaluating, and mapping the hazard and risk associated with earthquake-induced landslides.

The Chiloé Mw 7.6 earthquake of 2016 December 25 in Southern Chile and its relation to the Mw 9.5 1960 Valdivia earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Lange, Dietrich; Ruiz, Javier; Carrasco, Sebastián; Manríquez, Paula

2018-04-01

On 2016 December 25, an Mw 7.6 earthquake broke a portion of the Southern Chilean subduction zone south of Chiloé Island, located in the central part of the Mw 9.5 1960 Valdivia earthquake. This region is characterized by repeated earthquakes in 1960 and historical times with very sparse interseismic activity due to the subduction of a young (˜15 Ma), and therefore hot, oceanic plate. We estimate the coseismic slip distribution based on a kinematic finite-fault source model, and through joint inversion of teleseismic body waves and strong motion data. The coseismic slip model yields a total seismic moment of 3.94 × 1020 N.m that occurred over ˜30 s, with the rupture propagating mainly downdip, reaching a peak slip of ˜4.2 m. Regional moment tensor inversion of stronger aftershocks reveals thrust type faulting at depths of the plate interface. The fore- and aftershock seismicity is mostly related to the subduction interface with sparse seismicity in the overriding crust. The 2016 Chiloé event broke a region with increased locking and most likely broke an asperity of the 1960 earthquake. The updip limit of the main event, aftershocks, foreshocks and interseismic activity are spatially similar, located ˜15 km offshore and parallel to Chiloé Islands west coast. The coseismic slip model of the 2016 Chiloé earthquake suggests a peak slip of 4.2 m that locally exceeds the 3.38 m slip deficit that has accumulated since 1960. Therefore, the 2016 Chiloé earthquake possibly released strain that has built up prior to the 1960 Valdivia earthquake.

The large earthquake on 29 June 1170 (Syria, Lebanon, and central southern Turkey)

Science.gov (United States)

Guidoboni, Emanuela; Bernardini, Filippo; Comastri, Alberto; Boschi, Enzo

2004-07-01

On 29 June 1170 a large earthquake hit a vast area in the Near Eastern Mediterranean, comprising the present-day territories of western Syria, central southern Turkey, and Lebanon. Although this was one of the strongest seismic events ever to hit Syria, so far no in-depth or specific studies have been available. Furthermore, the seismological literature (from 1979 until 2000) only elaborated a partial summary of it, mainly based solely on Arabic sources. The major effects area was very partial, making the derived seismic parameters unreliable. This earthquake is in actual fact one of the most highly documented events of the medieval Mediterranean. This is due to both the particular historical period in which it had occurred (between the second and the third Crusades) and the presence of the Latin states in the territory of Syria. Some 50 historical sources, written in eight different languages, have been analyzed: Latin (major contributions), Arabic, Syriac, Armenian, Greek, Hebrew, Vulgar French, and Italian. A critical analysis of this extraordinary body of historical information has allowed us to obtain data on the effects of the earthquake at 29 locations, 16 of which were unknown in the previous scientific literature. As regards the seismic dynamics, this study has set itself the question of whether there was just one or more than one strong earthquake. In the former case, the parameters (Me 7.7 ± 0.22, epicenter, and fault length 126.2 km) were calculated. Some hypotheses are outlined concerning the seismogenic zones involved.

Detailed observations of California foreshock sequences: Implications for the earthquake initiation process

Science.gov (United States)

Dodge, D.A.; Beroza, G.C.; Ellsworth, W.L.

1996-01-01

We find that foreshocks provide clear evidence for an extended nucleation process before some earthquakes. In this study, we examine in detail the evolution of six California foreshock sequences, the 1986 Mount Lewis (ML, = 5.5), the 1986 Chalfant (ML = 6.4), the. 1986 Stone Canyon (ML = 4.7), the 1990 Upland (ML = 5.2), the 1992 Joshua Tree (MW= 6.1), and the 1992 Landers (MW = 7.3) sequence. Typically, uncertainties in hypocentral parameters are too large to establish the geometry of foreshock sequences and hence to understand their evolution. However, the similarity of location and focal mechanisms for the events in these sequences leads to similar foreshock waveforms that we cross correlate to obtain extremely accurate relative locations. We use these results to identify small-scale fault zone structures that could influence nucleation and to determine the stress evolution leading up to the mainshock. In general, these foreshock sequences are not compatible with a cascading failure nucleation model in which the foreshocks all occur on a single fault plane and trigger the mainshock by static stress transfer. Instead, the foreshocks seem to concentrate near structural discontinuities in the fault and may themselves be a product of an aseismic nucleation process. Fault zone heterogeneity may also be important in controlling the number of foreshocks, i.e., the stronger the heterogeneity, the greater the number of foreshocks. The size of the nucleation region, as measured by the extent of the foreshock sequence, appears to scale with mainshock moment in the same manner as determined independently by measurements of the seismic nucleation phase. We also find evidence for slip localization as predicted by some models of earthquake nucleation. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

Southern Peru desert shattered by the great 2001 earthquake: implications for paleoseismic and paleo-El Nino-Southern Oscillation records.

Science.gov (United States)

Keefer, David K; Moseley, Michael E

2004-07-27

In the desert region around the coastal city of Ilo, the great southern Peru earthquake of June 23, 2001 (8.2-8.4 moment magnitude), produced intense and widespread ground-failure effects. These effects included abundant landslides, pervasive ground cracking, microfracturing of surficial hillslope materials, collapse of drainage banks over long stretches, widening of hillside rills, and lengthening of first-order tributary channels. We have coined the term "shattered landscape" to describe the severity of these effects. Long-term consequences of this landscape shattering are inferred to include increased runoff and sediment transport during postearthquake rainstorms. This inference was confirmed during the first minor postearthquake rainstorm there, which occurred in June and July of 2002. Greater amounts of rainfall in this desert region have historically been associated with El Niño events. Previous studies of an unusual paleoflood deposit in this region have concluded that it is the product of El Niño-generated precipitation falling on seismically disturbed landscapes. The effects of the 2001 earthquake and 2002 rainstorm support that conclusion.

Southern-by-Sequencing: A Robust Screening Approach for Molecular Characterization of Genetically Modified Crops

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gina M. Zastrow-Hayes

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Molecular characterization of events is an integral part of the advancement process during genetically modified (GM crop product development. Assessment of these events is traditionally accomplished by polymerase chain reaction (PCR and Southern blot analyses. Southern blot analysis can be time-consuming and comparatively expensive and does not provide sequence-level detail. We have developed a sequence-based application, Southern-by-Sequencing (SbS, utilizing sequence capture coupled with next-generation sequencing (NGS technology to replace Southern blot analysis for event selection in a high-throughput molecular characterization environment. SbS is accomplished by hybridizing indexed and pooled whole-genome DNA libraries from GM plants to biotinylated probes designed to target the sequence of transformation plasmids used to generate events within the pool. This sequence capture process enriches the sequence data obtained for targeted regions of interest (transformation plasmid DNA. Taking advantage of the DNA adjacent to the targeted bases (referred to as next-to-target sequence that accompanies the targeted transformation plasmid sequence, the data analysis detects plasmid-to-genome and plasmid-to-plasmid junctions introduced during insertion into the plant genome. Analysis of these junction sequences provides sequence-level information as to the following: the number of insertion loci including detection of unlinked, independently segregating, small DNA fragments; copy number; rearrangements, truncations, or deletions of the intended insertion DNA; and the presence of transformation plasmid backbone sequences. This molecular evidence from SbS analysis is used to characterize and select GM plants meeting optimal molecular characterization criteria. SbS technology has proven to be a robust event screening tool for use in a high-throughput molecular characterization environment.

Static stress transfer during the 2002 Nenana Mountain-Denali Fault, Alaska, earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, G.; Ji, C.

2003-01-01

On 23 October 2002, the Mw 6.7 Nenana Mountain earthquake occurred in central Alaska. It was followed on 3 November 2002 by the Mw 7.9 Denali Fault mainshock, the largest strike-slip earthquake to occur in North America during the past 150 years. We have modeled static Coulomb stress transfer effects during this sequence. We find that the Nenana Mountain foreshock transferred 30-50 kPa of Coulomb stress to the hypocentral region of the Denali Fault mainshock, encouraging its occurrence. We also find that the two main earthquakes together transferred more than 400 kPa of Coulomb stress to the Cross Creek segment of the Totschunda fault system and to the Denali fault southeast of the mainshock rupture, and up to 80 kPa to the Denali fault west of the Nenana Mountain rupture. Other major faults in the region experienced much smaller static Coulomb stress changes.

Fluid-driven normal faulting earthquake sequences in the Taiwan orogen

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ling-hua; Rau, Ruey-Juin; Lee, En-Jui

2017-04-01

Seismicity in the Central Range of Taiwan shows normal faulting mechanisms with T-axes directing NE, subparallel to the strike of the mountain belt. We analyze earthquake sequences occurred within 2012-2015 in the Nanshan area of northern Taiwan which indicating swarm behavior and migration characteristics. We select events larger than 2.0 from Central Weather Bureau catalog and use the double-difference relocation program hypoDD with waveform cross-correlation in the Nanshan area. We obtained a final count of 1406 (95%) relocated earthquakes. Moreover, we compute focal mechanisms using USGS program HASH by P-wave first motion and S/P ratio picking and 114 fault plane solutions with M 3.0-5.87 were determined. To test for fluid diffusion, we model seismicity using the equation of Shapiro et al. (1997) by fitting earthquake diffusing rate D during the migration period. According to the relocation result, seismicity in the Taiwan orogenic belt present mostly N25E orientation parallel to the mountain belt with the same direction of the tension axis. In addition, another seismic fracture depicted by seismicity rotated 35 degree counterclockwise to the NW direction. Nearly all focal mechanisms are normal fault type. In the Nanshan area, events show N10W distribution with a focal depth range from 5-12 km and illustrate fault plane dipping about 45-60 degree to SW. Three months before the M 5.87 mainshock which occurred in March, 2013, there were some foreshock events occurred in the shallow part of the fault plane of the mainshock. Half a year following the mainshock, earthquakes migrated to the north and south, respectively with processes matched the diffusion model at a rate of 0.2-0.6 m2/s. This migration pattern and diffusion rate offer an evidence of 'fluid-driven' process in the fault zone. We also find the upward migration of earthquakes in the mainshock source region. These phenomena are likely caused by the opening of the permeable conduit due to the M 5

Pre-earthquake multiparameter analysis of the 2016 Amatrice-Norcia (Central Italy) seismic sequence: a case study for the application of the SAFE project concepts

Science.gov (United States)

De Santis, A.

2017-12-01

The SAFE (Swarm for Earthquake study) project (funded by European Space Agency in the framework "STSE Swarm+Innovation", 2014-2016) aimed at applying the new approach of geosystemics to the analysis of Swarm satellite (ESA) electromagnetic data for investigating the preparatory phase of earthquakes. We present in this talk the case study of the most recent seismic sequence in Italy. First a M6 earthquake on 24 August 2016 and then a M6.5 earthquake on 30 October 2016 shocked almost in the same region of Central Italy causing about 300 deaths in total (mostly on 24 August), with a revival of other significant seismicity on January 2017. Analysing both geophysical and climatological satellite and ground data preceding the major earthquakes of the sequence we present results that confirm a complex solid earth-atmosphere coupling in the preparation phase of the whole sequence.

THE MISSING EARTHQUAKES OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY: RECONCILING RECURRENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATES, SOUTHERN CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

Science.gov (United States)

Patton, J. R.; Leroy, T. H.

2009-12-01

Earthquake and tsunami hazard for northwestern California and southern Oregon is predominately based on estimates of recurrence for earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone and upper plate thrust faults, each with unique deformation and recurrence histories. Coastal northern California is uniquely located to enable us to distinguish these different sources of seismic hazard as the accretionary prism extends on land in this region. This region experiences ground deformation from rupture of upper plate thrust faults like the Little Salmon fault. Most of this region is thought to be above the locked zone of the megathrust, so is subject to vertical deformation during the earthquake cycle. Secondary evidence of earthquake history is found here in the form of marsh soils that coseismically subside and commonly are overlain by estuarine mud and rarely tsunami sand. It is not currently known what the source of the subsidence is for this region; it may be due to upper plate rupture, megathrust rupture, or a combination of the two. Given that many earlier investigations utilized bulk peat for 14C age determinations and that these early studies were largely reconnaissance work, these studies need to be reevaluated. Recurrence Interval estimates are inconsistent when comparing terrestrial (~500 years) and marine (~220 years) data sets. This inconsistency may be due to 1) different sources of archival bias in marine and terrestrial data sets and/or 2) different sources of deformation. Factors controlling successful archiving of paleoseismic data are considered as this relates to geologic setting and how that might change through time. We compile, evaluate, and rank existing paleoseismic data in order to prioritize future paleoseismic investigations. 14C ages are recalibrated and quality assessments are made for each age determination. We then evaluate geologic setting and prioritize important research locations and goals based on these existing data. Terrestrial core

Coulomb Stress Change and Seismic Hazard of Rift Zones in Southern Tibet after the 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal Earthquake and Its Mw7.3 Aftershock

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Z.; Zha, X.; Lu, Z.

2015-12-01

In southern Tibet (30~34N, 80~95E), many north-trending rifts, such as Yadong-Gulu and Lunggar rifts, are characterized by internally drained graben or half-graben basins bounded by active normal faults. Some developed rifts have become a portion of important transportation lines in Tibet, China. Since 1976, eighty-seven >Mw5.0 earthquakes have happened in the rift regions, and fifty-five events have normal faulting focal mechanisms according to the GCMT catalog. These rifts and normal faults are associated with both the EW-trending extension of the southern Tibet and the convergence between Indian and Tibet. The 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal great earthquake and its Mw7.3 aftershock occurred at the main Himalayan Thrust zone and caused tremendous damages in Kathmandu region. Those earthquakes will lead to significant viscoelastic deformation and stress changes in the southern Tibet in the future. To evaluate the seismic hazard in the active rift regions in southern Tibet, we modeled the slip distribution of the 2015 Nepal great earthquakes using the InSAR displacement field from the ALOS-2 satellite SAR data, and calculated the Coulomb failure stress (CFS) on these active normal faults in the rift zones. Because the estimated CFS depends on the geometrical parameters of receiver faults, it is necessary to get the accurate fault parameters in the rift zones. Some historical earthquakes have been studied using the field data, teleseismic data and InSAR observations, but results are in not agreement with each other. In this study, we revaluated the geometrical parameters of seismogenic faults occurred in the rift zones using some high-quality coseismic InSAR observations and teleseismic body-wave data. Finally, we will evaluate the seismic hazard in the rift zones according to the value of the estimated CFS and aftershock distribution.

Southern California Earthquake Center/Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology (SCEC/UseIT): Towards the Next Generation of Internship

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, S.; Benthien, M.; Jordan, T. H.

2005-12-01

The SCEC/UseIT internship program is training the next generation of earthquake scientist, with methods that can be adapted to other disciplines. UseIT interns work collaboratively, in multi-disciplinary teams, conducting computer science research that is needed by earthquake scientists. Since 2002, the UseIT program has welcomed 64 students, in some two dozen majors, at all class levels, from schools around the nation. Each summer''s work is posed as a ``Grand Challenge.'' The students then organize themselves into project teams, decide how to proceed, and pool their diverse talents and backgrounds. They have traditional mentors, who provide advice and encouragement, but they also mentor one another, and this has proved to be a powerful relationship. Most begin with fear that their Grand Challenge is impossible, and end with excitement and pride about what they have accomplished. The 22 UseIT interns in summer, 2005, were primarily computer science and engineering majors, with others in geology, mathematics, English, digital media design, physics, history, and cinema. The 2005 Grand Challenge was to "build an earthquake monitoring system" to aid scientists who must visualize rapidly evolving earthquake sequences and convey information to emergency personnel and the public. Most UseIT interns were engaged in software engineering, bringing new datasets and functionality to SCEC-VDO (Virtual Display of Objects), a 3D visualization software that was prototyped by interns last year, using Java3D and an extensible, plug-in architecture based on the Eclipse Integrated Development Environment. Other UseIT interns used SCEC-VDO to make animated movies, and experimented with imagery in order to communicate concepts and events in earthquake science. One movie-making project included the creation of an assessment to test the effectiveness of the movie''s educational message. Finally, one intern created an interactive, multimedia presentation of the UseIT program.

Romanian crustal earthquake sequences: evidence for space and time clustering in correlation with seismic source properties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popescu, E.; Popa, M.; Radulian, M.

2002-01-01

The study of seismic sequences is important from both scientific point of view, and its socio-economical impact on human society. In this paper we analyze the crustal earthquake sequences in correlation with the seismogenic zones delimited on the Romanian territory using geological and tectonic information available. We consider on one hand the sequences typical for the Carpathians foreland region (Ramnicu Sarat, Vrancioaia and Sinaia seismic zones), which are associated with the Vrancea subduction process and, on the other hand the sequences typical for the contact between the Pannonian Basin and Carpathians orogen (Banat seismic zone). To analyze the seismicity and source properties, we applied the fractal statistics and relative methods such as spectral ratio and deconvolution with the empirical Green's functions. On the basis of the retrieved source parameters for small and moderate size events the scaling relations for the characteristic properties of the seismic source are estimated. The scaling and earthquake clustering properties are correlated with the geological and rheological properties of the studied seismic areas. (authors)

Products and Services Available from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC) and the Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN)

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, E.; Bhaskaran, A.; Chen, S.; Chowdhury, F. R.; Meisenhelter, S.; Hutton, K.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Clayton, R. W.

2010-12-01

Currently the SCEDC archives continuous and triggered data from nearly 5000 data channels from 425 SCSN recorded stations, processing and archiving an average of 12,000 earthquakes each year. The SCEDC provides public access to these earthquake parametric and waveform data through its website www.data.scec.org and through client applications such as STP and DHI. This poster will describe the most significant developments at the SCEDC in the past year. Updated hardware: ● The SCEDC has more than doubled its waveform file storage capacity by migrating to 2 TB disks. New data holdings: ● Waveform data: Beginning Jan 1, 2010 the SCEDC began continuously archiving all high-sample-rate strong-motion channels. All seismic channels recorded by SCSN are now continuously archived and available at SCEDC. ● Portable data from El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 sequence: Seismic waveforms from portable stations installed by researchers (contributed by Elizabeth Cochran, Jamie Steidl, and Octavio Lazaro-Mancilla) have been added to the archive and are accessible through STP either as continuous data or associated with events in the SCEDC earthquake catalog. This additional data will help SCSN analysts and researchers improve event locations from the sequence. ● Real time GPS solutions from El Mayor Cucapah 7.2 event: Three component 1Hz seismograms of California Real Time Network (CRTN) GPS stations, from the April 4, 2010, magnitude 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake are available in SAC format at the SCEDC. These time series were created by Brendan Crowell, Yehuda Bock, the project PI, and Mindy Squibb at SOPAC using data from the CRTN. The El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake demonstrated definitively the power of real-time high-rate GPS data: they measure dynamic displacements directly, they do not clip and they are also able to detect the permanent (coseismic) surface deformation. ● Triggered data from the Quake Catcher Network (QCN) and Community Seismic Network (CSN): The SCEDC in

Aftershocks and triggered events of the Great 1906 California earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Meltzner, A.J.; Wald, D.J.

2003-01-01

The San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California and one of the longest strike-slip faults in the world, yet little is known about the aftershocks following the most recent great event on the San Andreas, the Mw 7.8 San Francisco earthquake on 18 April 1906. We conducted a study to locate and to estimate magnitudes for the largest aftershocks and triggered events of this earthquake. We examined existing catalogs and historical documents for the period April 1906 to December 1907, compiling data on the first 20 months of the aftershock sequence. We grouped felt reports temporally and assigned modified Mercalli intensities for the larger events based on the descriptions judged to be the most reliable. For onshore and near-shore events, a grid-search algorithm (derived from empirical analysis of modern earthquakes) was used to find the epicentral location and magnitude most consistent with the assigned intensities. For one event identified as far offshore, the event's intensity distribution was compared with those of modern events, in order to contrain the event's location and magnitude. The largest aftershock within the study period, an M ???6.7 event, occurred ???100 km west of Eureka on 23 April 1906. Although not within our study period, another M ???6.7 aftershock occurred near Cape Mendocino on 28 October 1909. Other significant aftershocks included an M ???5.6 event near San Juan Bautista on 17 May 1906 and an M ???6.3 event near Shelter Cove on 11 August 1907. An M ???4.9 aftershock occurred on the creeping segment of the San Andreas fault (southeast of the mainshock rupture) on 6 July 1906. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake also triggered events in southern California (including separate events in or near the Imperial Valley, the Pomona Valley, and Santa Monica Bay), in western Nevada, in southern central Oregon, and in western Arizona, all within 2 days of the mainshock. Of these trigerred events, the largest were an M ???6.1 earthquake near Brawley

The induced earthquake sequence related to the St. Gallen deep geothermal project (Switzerland): Fault reactivation and fluid interactions imaged by microseismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Diehl, T.; Kraft, T.; Kissling, E.; Wiemer, S.

2017-09-01

In July 2013, a sequence of more than 340 earthquakes was induced by reservoir stimulations and well-control procedures following a gas kick at a deep geothermal drilling project close to the city of St. Gallen, Switzerland. The sequence culminated in an ML 3.5 earthquake, which was felt within 10-15 km from the epicenter. High-quality earthquake locations and 3-D reflection seismic data acquired in the St. Gallen project provide a unique data set, which allows high-resolution studies of earthquake triggering related to the injection of fluids into macroscopic fault zones. In this study, we present a high-precision earthquake catalog of the induced sequence. Absolute locations are constrained by a coupled hypocenter-velocity inversion, and subsequent double-difference relocations image the geometry of the ML 3.5 rupture and resolve the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity. A joint interpretation of earthquake and seismic data shows that the majority of the seismicity occurred in the pre-Mesozoic basement, hundreds of meters below the borehole and the targeted Mesozoic sequence. We propose a hydraulic connectivity between the reactivated fault and the borehole, likely through faults mapped by seismic data. Despite the excellent quality of the seismic data, the association of seismicity with mapped faults remains ambiguous. In summary, our results document that the actual hydraulic properties of a fault system and hydraulic connections between its fault segments are complex and may not be predictable upfront. Incomplete knowledge of fault structures and stress heterogeneities within highly complex fault systems additionally challenge the degree of predictability of induced seismicity related to underground fluid injections.

The 2012 Ferrara seismic sequence: Regional crustal structure, earthquake sources, and seismic hazard

Science.gov (United States)

Malagnini, Luca; Herrmann, Robert B.; Munafò, Irene; Buttinelli, Mauro; Anselmi, Mario; Akinci, Aybige; Boschi, E.

2012-10-01

Inadequate seismic design codes can be dangerous, particularly when they underestimate the true hazard. In this study we use data from a sequence of moderate-sized earthquakes in northeast Italy to validate and test a regional wave propagation model which, in turn, is used to understand some weaknesses of the current design spectra. Our velocity model, while regionalized and somewhat ad hoc, is consistent with geophysical observations and the local geology. In the 0.02-0.1 Hz band, this model is validated by using it to calculate moment tensor solutions of 20 earthquakes (5.6 ≥ MW ≥ 3.2) in the 2012 Ferrara, Italy, seismic sequence. The seismic spectra observed for the relatively small main shock significantly exceeded the design spectra to be used in the area for critical structures. Observations and synthetics reveal that the ground motions are dominated by long-duration surface waves, which, apparently, the design codes do not adequately anticipate. In light of our results, the present seismic hazard assessment in the entire Pianura Padana, including the city of Milan, needs to be re-evaluated.

Analysis of Earthquake Source Spectra in Salton Trough

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, X.; Shearer, P. M.

2009-12-01

Previous studies of the source spectra of small earthquakes in southern California show that average Brune-type stress drops vary among different regions, with particularly low stress drops observed in the Salton Trough (Shearer et al., 2006). The Salton Trough marks the southern end of the San Andreas Fault and is prone to earthquake swarms, some of which are driven by aseismic creep events (Lohman and McGuire, 2007). In order to learn the stress state and understand the physical mechanisms of swarms and slow slip events, we analyze the source spectra of earthquakes in this region. We obtain Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) waveforms for earthquakes from 1977 to 2009 archived at the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) data center, which includes over 17,000 events. After resampling the data to a uniform 100 Hz sample rate, we compute spectra for both signal and noise windows for each seismogram, and select traces with a P-wave signal-to-noise ratio greater than 5 between 5 Hz and 15 Hz. Using selected displacement spectra, we isolate the source spectra from station terms and path effects using an empirical Green’s function approach. From the corrected source spectra, we compute corner frequencies and estimate moments and stress drops. Finally we analyze spatial and temporal variations in stress drop in the Salton Trough and compare them with studies of swarms and creep events to assess the evolution of faulting and stress in the region. References: Lohman, R. B., and J. J. McGuire (2007), Earthquake swarms driven by aseismic creep in the Salton Trough, California, J. Geophys. Res., 112, B04405, doi:10.1029/2006JB004596 Shearer, P. M., G. A. Prieto, and E. Hauksson (2006), Comprehensive analysis of earthquake source spectra in southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 111, B06303, doi:10.1029/2005JB003979.

Investigation of an Unusually Shallow Earthquake Sequence in Mogul, NV from a Discrimination Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

2014-08-31

the fault area that was active in the foreshock sequence. For this source dimension, a stress drop of 17.5 MPa was estimated, which is about 25% of...described by Anderson et al. (2009). Our relocation of the largest earthquake places the hypocenter 2.7 km below the surface. The foreshocks and...occurred after a sequence of foreshocks initiated on February 29, 56 days before the main shock (Figures 2 and 3). The triangular-shaped bounds for

Volcanic tremor and local earthquakes at Copahue volcanic complex, Southern Andes, Argentina

Science.gov (United States)

Ibáñez, J. M.; Del Pezzo, E.; Bengoa, C.; Caselli, A.; Badi, G.; Almendros, J.

2008-07-01

In the present paper we describe the results of a seismic field survey carried out at Copahue Volcano, Southern Andes, Argentina, using a small-aperture, dense seismic antenna. Copahue Volcano is an active volcano that exhibited a few phreatic eruptions in the last 20 years. The aim of this experiment was to record and classify the background seismic activity of this volcanic area, and locate the sources of local earthquakes and volcanic tremor. Data consist of several volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes, and many samples of back-ground seismic noise. We use both ordinary spectral, and multi-spectral techniques to measure the spectral content, and an array technique [Zero Lag Cross Correlation technique] to measure the back-azimuth and apparent slowness of the signals propagating across the array. We locate VT earthquakes using a procedure based on the estimate of slowness vector components and S-P time. VT events are located mainly along the border of the Caviahue caldera lake, positioned at the South-East of Copahue volcano, in a depth interval of 1-3 km below the surface. The background noise shows the presence of many transients with high correlation among the array stations in the frequency band centered at 2.5 Hz. These transients are superimposed to an uncorrelated background seismic signal. Array solutions for these transients show a predominant slowness vector pointing to the exploited geothermal field of "Las Maquinitas" and "Copahue Village", located about 6 km north of the array site. We interpret this coherent signal as a tremor generated by the activity of the geothermal field.

Correlating precursory declines in groundwater radon with earthquake magnitude.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, T

2014-01-01

Both studies at the Antung hot spring in eastern Taiwan and at the Paihe spring in southern Taiwan confirm that groundwater radon can be a consistent tracer for strain changes in the crust preceding an earthquake when observed in a low-porosity fractured aquifer surrounded by a ductile formation. Recurrent anomalous declines in groundwater radon were observed at the Antung D1 monitoring well in eastern Taiwan prior to the five earthquakes of magnitude (Mw ): 6.8, 6.1, 5.9, 5.4, and 5.0 that occurred on December 10, 2003; April 1, 2006; April 15, 2006; February 17, 2008; and July 12, 2011, respectively. For earthquakes occurring on the longitudinal valley fault in eastern Taiwan, the observed radon minima decrease as the earthquake magnitude increases. The above correlation has been proven to be useful for early warning local large earthquakes. In southern Taiwan, radon anomalous declines prior to the 2010 Mw 6.3 Jiasian, 2012 Mw 5.9 Wutai, and 2012 ML 5.4 Kaohsiung earthquakes were also recorded at the Paihe spring. For earthquakes occurring on different faults in southern Taiwan, the correlation between the observed radon minima and the earthquake magnitude is not yet possible. © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

Strong motions observed by K-NET and KiK-net during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Suzuki, Wataru; Aoi, Shin; Kunugi, Takashi; Kubo, Hisahiko; Morikawa, Nobuyuki; Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Kimura, Takeshi; Fujiwara, Hiroyuki

2017-01-01

The nationwide strong-motion seismograph network of K-NET and KiK-net in Japan successfully recorded the strong ground motions of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, which show the several notable characteristics. For the first large earthquake with a JMA magnitude of 6.5 (21:26, April 14, 2016, JST), the large strong motions are concentrated near the epicenter and the strong-motion attenuations are well predicted by the empirical relation for crustal earthquakes with a moment magnitude of 6.1. For the largest earthquake of the sequence with a JMA magnitude of 7.3 (01:25, April 16, 2016, JST), the large peak ground accelerations and velocities extend from the epicentral area to the northeast direction. The attenuation feature of peak ground accelerations generally follows the empirical relation, whereas that for velocities deviates from the empirical relation for stations with the epicentral distance of greater than 200 km, which can be attributed to the large Love wave having a dominant period around 10 s. The large accelerations were observed at stations even in Oita region, more than 70 km northeast from the epicenter. They are attributed to the local induced earthquake in Oita region, whose moment magnitude is estimated to be 5.5 by matching the amplitudes of the corresponding phases with the empirical attenuation relation. The real-time strong-motion observation has a potential for contributing to the mitigation of the ongoing earthquake disasters. We test a methodology to forecast the regions to be exposed to the large shaking in real time, which has been developed based on the fact that the neighboring stations are already shaken, for the largest event of the Kumamoto earthquakes, and demonstrate that it is simple but effective to quickly make warning. We also shows that the interpolation of the strong motions in real time is feasible, which will be utilized for the real-time forecast of ground motions based on the observed shakings.[Figure not available

High Resolution Vp and Vp/Vs Local Earthquake Tomography of the Val d'Agri Region (Southern Apennines, Italy).

Science.gov (United States)

Improta, L.; Bagh, S.; De Gori, P.; Pastori, M.; Piccinini, D.; Valoroso, L.; Anselmi, M.; Buttinelli, M.; Chiarabba, C.

2015-12-01

The Val d'Agri (VA) Quaternary basin in the southern Apennines extensional belt hosts the largest oilfield in onshore Europe and normal-fault systems with high (up to M7) seismogenic potential. Frequent small-magnitude swarms related to both active crustal extension and anthropogenic activity have occurred in the region. Causal factors for induced seismicity are a water impoundment with severe seasonal oscillations and a high-rate wastewater injection well. We analyzed around 1200 earthquakes (MLENI petroleum company. We used local earthquake tomography to investigate static and transient features of the crustal velocity structure and to accurately locate earthquakes. Vp and Vp/Vs models are parameterized by a 3x3x2 km spacing and well resolved down to about 12 km depth. The complex Vp model illuminates broad antiformal structures corresponding to wide ramp-anticlines involving Mesozoic carbonates of the Apulia hydrocarbon reservoir, and NW-SE trending low Vp regions related to thrust-sheet-top clastic basins. The VA basin corresponds to shallow low-Vp region. Focal mechanisms show normal faulting kinematics with minor strike slip solutions in agreement with the local extensional regime. Earthquake locations and focal solutions depict shallow (< 5 km depth) E-dipping extensional structures beneath the artificial lake located in the southern sector of the basin, and along the western margin of the VA. A few swarms define relatively deep transfer structures accommodating the differential extension between main normal faults. The spatio-temporal distribution of around 220 events correlates with wastewater disposal activity, illuminating a NE-dipping fault between 2-5 km depth in the carbonate reservoir. The fault measures 5 km along dip and corresponds to a pre-existing thrust fault favorably oriented with respect to the local extensional field.

Ground failure in the 2001 Mw 8.4 southern Peru earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Rondinel-Oviedo, Efrain Alejandro

On June 23rd 2001 a moment magnitude (M W) 8.4, earthquake shook the southern portion of Peru. This rare large-magnitude event provided a unique opportunity to develop a suite of high quality case histories and also to test and calibrate existing geotechnical earthquake engineering analysis procedures and models against observations from the earthquake. The work presented in this thesis is focused on three topics pertaining to ground failure (i.e., the permanent deformation of the ground resulting from an earthquake) observed during the event: (1) surface ground damage in small basin geometries, (2) seismic compression, and (3) performance of a concrete faced rockfill dam (CFRD) dam. Surface ground strain damage patterns in small basin geometries has previously been typically studied at the large (i.e., geological) scale, but not at the scale of civil engineering infrastructure. During seismic events basin geometries containing soft material confined by stiffer material trap the seismic waves and generate surface waves that travel on the ground along the soft material. Numerical modeling shows that surface waves are generated at basin edges and travel on the ground creating higher duration, higher response (peak ground acceleration, PGA), higher energy (Arias Intensity) and higher angular distortion, especially in zones close to the edges. The impedance contrast between the stiff material and the soft material, and the dip angle play an important role in basin response. Seismic compression (i.e., the shaking induced densification of unsaturated soil) was observed in many highway embankments in the region of the earthquake. In many instances, this phenomenon was exasperated by soil-structure interaction with adjacent bridge or culvert structures. Numerical modeling conducted as part of this research showed (i) a significantly different response when the structure (culvert) is considered, (ii) impedance contrast plays a role in the system responses, and (iii) low

The ShakeOut scenario: A hypothetical Mw7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, K.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.; Goltz, J.; Hudnut, K.; Mileti, D.; Perry, S.; Ponti, D.; Reichle, M.; Rose, A.Z.; Scawthorn, C.R.; Seligson, H.A.; Shoaf, K.I.; Treiman, J.; Wein, A.

2011-01-01

In 2008, an earthquake-planning scenario document was released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and California Geological Survey that hypothesizes the occurrence and effects of a Mw7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was created by more than 300 scientists and engineers. Fault offsets reach 13 m and up to 8 m at lifeline crossings. Physics-based modeling was used to generate maps of shaking intensity, with peak ground velocities of 3 m/sec near the fault and exceeding 0.5 m/sec over 10,000 km2. A custom HAZUS??MH analysis and 18 special studies were performed to characterize the effects of the earthquake on the built environment. The scenario posits 1,800 deaths and 53,000 injuries requiring emergency room care. Approximately 1,600 fires are ignited, resulting in the destruction of 200 million square feet of the building stock, the equivalent of 133,000 single-family homes. Fire contributes $87 billion in property and business interruption loss, out of the total $191 billion in economic loss, with most of the rest coming from shakerelated building and content damage ($46 billion) and business interruption loss from water outages ($24 billion). Emergency response activities are depicted in detail, in an innovative grid showing activities versus time, a new format introduced in this study. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Southern Peru desert shattered by the great 2001 earthquake: Implications for paleoseismic and paleo-El Niño–Southern Oscillation records

Science.gov (United States)

Keefer, David K.; Moseley, Michael E.

2004-01-01

In the desert region around the coastal city of Ilo, the great southern Peru earthquake of June 23, 2001 (8.2–8.4 moment magnitude), produced intense and widespread ground-failure effects. These effects included abundant landslides, pervasive ground cracking, microfracturing of surficial hillslope materials, collapse of drainage banks over long stretches, widening of hillside rills, and lengthening of first-order tributary channels. We have coined the term “shattered landscape” to describe the severity of these effects. Long-term consequences of this landscape shattering are inferred to include increased runoff and sediment transport during postearthquake rainstorms. This inference was confirmed during the first minor postearthquake rainstorm there, which occurred in June and July of 2002. Greater amounts of rainfall in this desert region have historically been associated with El Niño events. Previous studies of an unusual paleoflood deposit in this region have concluded that it is the product of El Niño-generated precipitation falling on seismically disturbed landscapes. The effects of the 2001 earthquake and 2002 rainstorm support that conclusion. PMID:15263069

Rupture Speed and Dynamic Frictional Processes for the 1995 ML4.1 Shacheng, Hebei, China, Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, B.; Shi, B.

2010-12-01

An earthquake with ML4.1 occurred at Shacheng, Hebei, China, on July 20, 1995, followed by 28 aftershocks with 0.9≤ML≤4.0 (Chen et al, 2005). According to ZÚÑIGA (1993), for the 1995 ML4.1 Shacheng earthquake sequence, the main shock is corresponding to undershoot, while aftershocks should match overshoot. With the suggestion that the dynamic rupture processes of the overshoot aftershocks could be related to the crack (sub-fault) extension inside the main fault. After main shock, the local stresses concentration inside the fault may play a dominant role in sustain the crack extending. Therefore, the main energy dissipation mechanism should be the aftershocks fracturing process associated with the crack extending. We derived minimum radiation energy criterion (MREC) following variational principle (Kanamori and Rivera, 2004)(ES/M0')min≧[3M0/(ɛπμR3)](v/β)3, where ES and M0' are radiated energy and seismic moment gained from observation, μ is the modulus of fault rigidity, ɛ is the parameter of ɛ=M0'/M0,M0 is seismic moment and R is rupture size on the fault, v and β are rupture speed and S-wave speed. From II and III crack extending model, we attempt to reconcile a uniform expression for calculate seismic radiation efficiency ηG, which can be used to restrict the upper limit efficiency and avoid the non-physics phenomenon that radiation efficiency is larger than 1. In ML 4.1 Shacheng earthquake sequence, the rupture speed of the main shock was about 0.86 of S-wave speed β according to MREC, closing to the Rayleigh wave speed, while the rupture speeds of the remained 28 aftershocks ranged from 0.05β to 0.55β. The rupture speed was 0.9β, and most of the aftershocks are no more than 0.35β using II and III crack extending model. In addition, the seismic radiation efficiencies for this earthquake sequence were: for the most aftershocks, the radiation efficiencies were less than 10%, inferring a low seismic efficiency, whereas the radiation efficiency

Lessons learned from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: Building damages and behavior of seismically isolated buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Morita, Keiko; Takayama, Mineo

2017-10-01

Powerful earthquakes stuck Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures in Kyushu, Japan. It began with the Magnitude 6.5 foreshock at 21:26 JST 14 April, followed by the Magnitude 7.3 mainshock at 1:25 JST 16 April, 2016. The sequence earthquakes also involved more than 1700 perceptible earthquakes as of 13 June. The entire sequence was named the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Thousands of buildings and many roads were damaged, and landslides occurred. The Japanese building standard law is revised in 1981. Structural damages were concentrated on buildings constructed prior to 1981. The area of Mashiki and Southern Aso were most badly affected, especially wooden houses extremely damaged. In Japan, Prof. Hideyuki Tada (title at the time) undertook research on laminated rubber bearings in 1978, and put it into practical use in 1981. The single family house at Yachiyodai, Chiba Prefecture is completed in 1983, it's the first seismically isolated building which is installed laminated rubber bearings in Japan. Afterward, this system is gradually adopted to mainly office buildings, like a research laboratory, a hospital, a computer center and other offices. In the 1994 Northridge earthquake, the 1995 Kobe earthquake and 2011 Tohoku earthquake, seismically isolated buildings improve these good performances, and recently number of the buildings have increased, mainly high risk area of earthquakes. Many people believed that Kumamoto was a low risk area. But there were 24 seismically isolated buildings in Kumamoto Prefecture at the time. The seismically isolated buildings indicated excellent performances during the earthquakes. They protected people, buildings and other important facilities from damages caused by the earthquake. The purpose of this paper is to discuss lessons learned from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and behavior of seismically isolated buildings in the earthquake.

Napa Earthquake impact on water systems

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, J.

2014-12-01

South Napa earthquake occurred in Napa, California on August 24 at 3am, local time, and the magnitude is 6.0. The earthquake was the largest in SF Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Economic loss topped $ 1 billion. Wine makers cleaning up and estimated the damage on tourism. Around 15,000 cases of lovely cabernet were pouring into the garden at the Hess Collection. Earthquake potentially raise water pollution risks, could cause water crisis. CA suffered water shortage recent years, and it could be helpful on how to prevent underground/surface water pollution from earthquake. This research gives a clear view on drinking water system in CA, pollution on river systems, as well as estimation on earthquake impact on water supply. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta (close to Napa), is the center of the state's water distribution system, delivering fresh water to more than 25 million residents and 3 million acres of farmland. Delta water conveyed through a network of levees is crucial to Southern California. The drought has significantly curtailed water export, and salt water intrusion reduced fresh water outflows. Strong shaking from a nearby earthquake can cause saturated, loose, sandy soils liquefaction, and could potentially damage major delta levee systems near Napa. Napa earthquake is a wake-up call for Southern California. It could potentially damage freshwater supply system.

Numerical modeling of block structure dynamics: Application to the Vrancea region and study of earthquakes sequences in the synthetic catalogs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soloviev, A.A.; Vorobieva, I.A.

1995-08-01

A seismically active region is represented as a system of absolutely rigid blocks divided by infinitely thin plane faults. The interaction of the blocks along the fault planes and with the underlying medium is viscous-elastic. The system of blocks moves as a consequence of prescribed motion of boundary blocks and the underlying medium. When for some part of a fault plane the stress surpasses a certain strength level a stress-drop (''a failure'') occurs. It can cause a failure for other parts of fault planes. The failures are considered as earthquakes. As a result of the numerical simulation a synthetic earthquake catalogue is produced. This procedure is applied for numerical modeling of dynamics of the block structure approximating the tectonic structure of the Vrancea region. By numerical experiments the values of the model parameters were obtained which supplied the synthetic earthquake catalog with the space distribution of epicenters close to the real distribution of the earthquake epicenters in the Vrancea region. The frequency-magnitude relations (Gutenberg-Richter curves) obtained for the synthetic and real catalogs have some common features. The sequences of earthquakes arising in the model are studied for some artificial structures. It is found that ''foreshocks'', ''main shocks'', and ''aftershocks'' could be detected among earthquakes forming the sequences. The features of aftershocks, foreshocks, and catalogs of main shocks are analysed. (author). 5 refs, 12 figs, 16 tabs

Finding positives after disaster: Insights from nurses following the 2010-2011 Canterbury, NZ earthquake sequence.

Science.gov (United States)

Johal, Sarbjit S; Mounsey, Zoe R

2015-11-01

This paper identifies positive aspects of nurse experiences during the Canterbury 2010-2011 earthquake sequence and subsequent recovery process. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were undertaken with 11 nurses from the Christchurch area to explore the challenges faced by the nurses during and following the earthquakes. The interviews took place three years after the start of the earthquake experience to enable exploration of the longer term recovery process. The interview transcripts were analysed and coded using a grounded theory approach. The data analysis identified that despite the many challenges faced by the nurses during and following the earthquakes they were able to identify positives from their experience. A number of themes were identified that are related to posttraumatic growth, including; improvement in relationships with others, change in perspective/values, changed views of self and acknowledgement of the value of the experience. The research indicates that nurses were able to identify positive aspects of their experiences of the earthquakes and recovery process, suggesting that both positive and negative impacts on wellbeing can co-exist. These insights have value for employers designing support processes following disasters as focusing on positive elements could enhance nurse wellbeing during stressful times. Copyright © 2015 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Emilia 2012 sequence: a macroseismic survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Tertulliani

2012-10-01

Full Text Available On May 20, 2012, at 4:03 local time (2:03 UTC, a large part of the Po Valley between the cities of Ferrara, Modena and Mantova was struck by a damaging earthquake (Ml 5.9. The epicenter was located by the Istituto Nazionale di Geo-fisica e Vulcanologia (INGV seismic network [ISIDe 2010] at 44.889 ˚N and 11.228 ˚E, approximately 30 km west of Ferrara (Figure 1. The event was preceded by a foreshock that occurred at 01:13 local time, with a magnitude of Ml 4. The mainshock started an intense seismic sequence that lasted for weeks, counting more than 2,000 events, six of which had Ml >5. The strongest earthquakes of this sequence occurred on May 29, 2012, with Ml 5.8 and Ml 5.3, recorded at 9:00 and 12:55 local time, respectively. The epicenters of the May 29, 2012, events were located at the westernmost part of the rupture zone of the May 20, 2012, earthquake (Figure 2. The May 20 and 29, 2012, earthquakes were felt through the whole of northern and central Italy, and as far as Switzerland, Slovenia, Croatia, Austria, south-eastern France and southern Germany. Historical information reveals that the seismic activity in the Po Valley is moderate […

Low-Frequency Earthquakes Associated with the Late-Interseismic Central Alpine Fault, Southern Alps, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Baratin, L. M.; Chamberlain, C. J.; Townend, J.; Savage, M. K.

2016-12-01

Characterising the seismicity associated with slow deformation in the vicinity of the Alpine Fault may provide constraints on the state of stress of this major transpressive margin prior to a large (≥M8) earthquake. Here, we use recently detected tremor and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) to examine how slow tectonic deformation is loading the Alpine Fault toward an anticipated large rupture. We initially work with a continous seismic dataset collected between 2009 and 2012 from an array of short-period seismometers, the Southern Alps Microearthquake Borehole Array. Fourteen primary LFE templates are used in an iterative matched-filter and stacking routine. This method allows the detection of similar signals and establishes LFE families with common locations. We thus generate a 36 month catalogue of 10718 LFEs. The detections are then combined for each LFE family using phase-weighted stacking to yield a signal with the highest possible signal to noise ratio. We found phase-weighted stacking to be successful in increasing the number of LFE detections by roughly 20%. Phase-weighted stacking also provides cleaner phase arrivals of apparently impulsive nature allowing more precise phase and polarity picks. We then compute improved non-linear earthquake locations using a 3D velocity model. We find LFEs to occur below the seismogenic zone at depths of 18-34 km, locating on or near the proposed deep extent of the Alpine Fault. Our next step is to estimate seismic source parameters by implementing a moment tensor inversion technique. Our focus is currently on generating a more extensive catalogue (spanning the years 2009 to 2016) using synthetic waveforms as primary templates, with which to detect LFEs. Initial testing shows that this technique paired up with phase-weighted stacking increases the number of LFE families and overall detected events roughly sevenfold. This catalogue should provide new insight into the geometry of the Alpine Fault and the prevailing stress

The role of INGVterremoti blog in information management during the earthquake sequence in central Italy

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Maurizio Pignone

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we describe the role the INGVterremoti blog in information management during the first part of the earthquake sequence in central Italy (August 24 to September 30. In the last four years, we have been working on the INGVterremoti blog in order to provide quick updates on the ongoing seismic activity in Italy and in-depth scientific information. These include articles on specific historical earthquakes, seismic hazard, geological interpretations, source models from different type of data, effects at the surface, and so on. We have delivered information in quasi-real-time also about all the recent magnitude M≥4.0 earthquakes in Italy, the strongest events in the Mediterranean and in the world. During the 2016 central Italy, the INGVterremoti blog has continuously released information about seismic sequences with three types of posts: i updates on the ongoing seismic activity; ii reports on the activities carried out by the INGV teams in the field and any other working groups; iii in-depth scientific articles describing some specific analysis and results. All the blog posts have been shared automatically and in real time on the other social media of the INGVterremoti platform, also to counter the bad information and to fight rumors. These include Facebook, Twitter and INGVterremoti App on IOS and Android. As well, both the main INGV home page (http://www.ingv.it and the INGV earthquake portal (http://terremoti.ingv.it have published the contents of the blog on dedicated pages that were fed automatically. The work done day by day on the INGVterremoti blog has been coordinated with the INGV Press Office that has written several press releases based on the contents of the blog. Since August 24, 53 articles were published on the blog they have had more than 1.9 million views and 1 million visitors. The peak in the number of views, which was more than 800,000 in a single day, was registered on August 24, 2016, following the M 6

A methodology for analyzing precursors to earthquake-initiated and fire-initiated accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budnitz, R.J.; Lambert, H.E.; Apostolakis, G.

1998-04-01

This report covers work to develop a methodology for analyzing precursors to both earthquake-initiated and fire-initiated accidents at commercial nuclear power plants. Currently, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission sponsors a large ongoing project, the Accident Sequence Precursor project, to analyze the safety significance of other types of accident precursors, such as those arising from internally-initiated transients and pipe breaks, but earthquakes and fires are not within the current scope. The results of this project are that: (1) an overall step-by-step methodology has been developed for precursors to both fire-initiated and seismic-initiated potential accidents; (2) some stylized case-study examples are provided to demonstrate how the fully-developed methodology works in practice, and (3) a generic seismic-fragility date base for equipment is provided for use in seismic-precursors analyses. 44 refs., 23 figs., 16 tabs

Prediction of accident sequence probabilities in a nuclear power plant due to earthquake events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hudson, J.M.; Collins, J.D.

1980-01-01

This paper presents a methodology to predict accident probabilities in nuclear power plants subject to earthquakes. The resulting computer program accesses response data to compute component failure probabilities using fragility functions. Using logical failure definitions for systems, and the calculated component failure probabilities, initiating event and safety system failure probabilities are synthesized. The incorporation of accident sequence expressions allows the calculation of terminal event probabilities. Accident sequences, with their occurrence probabilities, are finally coupled to a specific release category. A unique aspect of the methodology is an analytical procedure for calculating top event probabilities based on the correlated failure of primary events

Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS model for short-term clustering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiancang Zhuang

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Based on the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, which is used for describing the features of short-term clustering of earthquake occurrence, this paper presents some theories and techniques related to evaluating the probability distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time window, where the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitude distribution cannot be directly applied. It is seen that the distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time volume is determined in the longterm by the background seismicity rate and the magnitude distribution of the largest events in each earthquake cluster. The techniques introduced were applied to the seismicity in the Japan region in the period from 1926 to 2009. It was found that the regions most likely to have big earthquakes are along the Tohoku (northeastern Japan Arc and the Kuril Arc, both with much higher probabilities than the offshore Nankai and Tokai regions.

Using regional moment tensors to constrain the kinematics and stress evolution of the 2010–2013 Canterbury earthquake sequence, South Island, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, Matthew W.; Herrmann, Robert B.; Benz, Harley M.; Furlong, Kevin P.

2014-01-01

On September 3, 2010, a MW 7.0 (U.S. Geological Survey moment magnitude) earthquake ruptured across the Canterbury Plains in South Island, New Zealand. Since then, New Zealand GNS Science has recorded over 10,000 aftershocks ML 2.0 and larger, including three destructive ~ MW 6.0 earthquakes near Christchurch. We treat the Canterbury earthquake sequence as an intraplate earthquake sequence, and compare its kinematics to an Andersonian model for fault slip in a uniform stress field. We determined moment magnitudes and double couple solutions for 150 earthquakes having MW 3.7 and larger through the use of a waveform inversion technique using data from broadband seismic stations on South Island, New Zealand. The majority (126) of these double couple solutions have strike-slip focal mechanisms, with right-lateral slip on ENE fault planes or equivalently left-lateral slip on SSE fault planes. The remaining focal mechanisms indicate reverse faulting, except for two normal faulting events. The strike-slip segments have compatible orientations for slip in a stress field with a horizontal σ1 oriented ~ N115°E, and horizontal σ3. The preference for right lateral strike-slip earthquakes suggests that these structures are inherited from previous stages of deformation. Reverse slip is interpreted to have occurred on previously existing structures in regions with an absence of existing structures optimally oriented for strike-slip deformation. Despite the variations in slip direction and faulting style, most aftershocks had nearly the same P-axis orientation, consistent with the regional σ1. There is no evidence for significant changes in these stress orientations throughout the Canterbury earthquake sequence.

Reflections on Communicating Science during the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence of 2010-2011, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Wein, A. M.; Berryman, K. R.; Jolly, G. E.; Brackley, H. L.; Gledhill, K. R.

2015-12-01

The 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence began with the 4th September 2010 Darfield earthquake (Mw 7.1). Perhaps because there were no deaths, the mood of the city and the government was that high standards of earthquake engineering in New Zealand protected us, and there was a confident attitude to response and recovery. The demand for science and engineering information was of interest but not seen as crucial to policy, business or the public. The 22nd February 2011 Christchurch earthquake (Mw 6.2) changed all that; there was a significant death toll and many injuries. There was widespread collapse of older unreinforced and two relatively modern multi-storey buildings, and major disruption to infrastructure. The contrast in the interest and relevance of the science could not have been greater compared to 5 months previously. Magnitude 5+ aftershocks over a 20 month period resulted in confusion, stress, an inability to define a recovery trajectory, major concerns about whether insurers and reinsurers would continue to provide cover, very high levels of media interest from New Zealand and around the world, and high levels of political risk. As the aftershocks continued there was widespread speculation as to what the future held. During the sequence, the science and engineering sector sought to coordinate and offer timely and integrated advice. However, other than GeoNet, the national geophysical monitoring network, there were few resources devoted to communication, with the result that it was almost always reactive. With hindsight we have identified the need to resource information gathering and synthesis, execute strategic assessments of stakeholder needs, undertake proactive communication, and develop specific information packages for the diversity of users. Overall this means substantially increased resources. Planning is now underway for the science sector to adopt the New Zealand standardised CIMS (Coordinated Incident Management System) structure for

Constraining the Long-Term Average of Earthquake Recurrence Intervals From Paleo- and Historic Earthquakes by Assimilating Information From Instrumental Seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Zoeller, G.

2017-12-01

Paleo- and historic earthquakes are the most important source of information for the estimationof long-term recurrence intervals in fault zones, because sequences of paleoearthquakes cover more than one seismic cycle. On the other hand, these events are often rare, dating uncertainties are enormous and the problem of missing or misinterpreted events leads to additional problems. Taking these shortcomings into account, long-term recurrence intervals are usually unstable as long as no additional information are included. In the present study, we assume that the time to the next major earthquake depends on the rate of small and intermediate events between the large ones in terms of a ``clock-change'' model that leads to a Brownian Passage Time distribution for recurrence intervals. We take advantage of an earlier finding that the aperiodicity of this distribution can be related to the Gutenberg-Richter-b-value, which is usually around one and can be estimated easily from instrumental seismicity in the region under consideration. This allows to reduce the uncertainties in the estimation of the mean recurrence interval significantly, especially for short paleoearthquake sequences and high dating uncertainties. We present illustrative case studies from Southern California and compare the method with the commonly used approach of exponentially distributed recurrence times assuming a stationary Poisson process.

New insights on co- and post-seismic deformation and slip behavior associated with the Mw7.8 2016 Pedernales, Ecuador earthquake and its aftershock sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Soto-Cordero, L.; Nealy, J. L.; Meltzer, A.; Agurto-Detzel, H.; Alvarado, A. P.; Beck, S. L.; Benz, H.; Bergman, E. A.; Charvis, P.; Font, Y.; Hayes, G. P.; Hernandez, S.; Hoskins, M.; Leon Rios, S.; Lynner, C.; Regnier, M. M.; Rietbrock, A.; Stachnik, J. C.; Yeck, W. L.

2017-12-01

On April 16, 2016, a Mw7.8 earthquake, associated with oblique subduction of the Nazca Plate under South America, ruptured a segment approximately 130x100km in the region north of the intersection of the Carnegie ridge with the Ecuador subduction zone. The rupture coincides with the rupture area of the Mw7.8 1942 earthquake. To characterize the aftershock sequence, we analyze seismic data recorded by 30 stations from April 17, 2016 to May 8, 2017; 11 stations belong to Ecuador's national network and 19 are part of a PASSCAL temporary deployment. We apply a kurtosis detector to obtain automatic P- and S-wave picks. Earthquake locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors are obtained using the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) processing system. We also determine calibrated relocations using the Hypocentroidal Decomposition approach for a subset of events for which we combine phase readings from local and temporary PASSCAL stations with regional and teleseismic phase readings from the NEIC. In contrast with other earthquake relocation approaches, this method evaluates absolute location uncertainties for each event in the cluster, which allows us to more confidently assess the relationships between mainshock slip and aftershock activity. We find the aftershock sequence is characterized by a series of event clusters that predominantly surround the main rupture patches. However, the aftershocks extend beyond the mainshock rupture area, covering a region approximately 250x100km. Aftershocks north of the 2016 rupture fall in the rupture area of the Mw7.7 1958 earthquake. The southernmost region of elevated seismicity occurs south of a region of low coupling where the Carnegie ridge meets the subduction zone. The characterization of this sequence allows a detailed spatial and temporal analysis of the rupture processes, stress patterns and slip behavior during this earthquake sequence in Ecuador subduction zone.

Collective properties of injection-induced earthquake sequences: 1. Model description and directivity bias

Science.gov (United States)

Dempsey, David; Suckale, Jenny

2016-05-01

Induced seismicity is of increasing concern for oil and gas, geothermal, and carbon sequestration operations, with several M > 5 events triggered in recent years. Modeling plays an important role in understanding the causes of this seismicity and in constraining seismic hazard. Here we study the collective properties of induced earthquake sequences and the physics underpinning them. In this first paper of a two-part series, we focus on the directivity ratio, which quantifies whether fault rupture is dominated by one (unilateral) or two (bilateral) propagating fronts. In a second paper, we focus on the spatiotemporal and magnitude-frequency distributions of induced seismicity. We develop a model that couples a fracture mechanics description of 1-D fault rupture with fractal stress heterogeneity and the evolving pore pressure distribution around an injection well that triggers earthquakes. The extent of fault rupture is calculated from the equations of motion for two tips of an expanding crack centered at the earthquake hypocenter. Under tectonic loading conditions, our model exhibits a preference for unilateral rupture and a normal distribution of hypocenter locations, two features that are consistent with seismological observations. On the other hand, catalogs of induced events when injection occurs directly onto a fault exhibit a bias toward ruptures that propagate toward the injection well. This bias is due to relatively favorable conditions for rupture that exist within the high-pressure plume. The strength of the directivity bias depends on a number of factors including the style of pressure buildup, the proximity of the fault to failure and event magnitude. For injection off a fault that triggers earthquakes, the modeled directivity bias is small and may be too weak for practical detection. For two hypothetical injection scenarios, we estimate the number of earthquake observations required to detect directivity bias.

Sensitivity to Regional Earthquake Triggering and Magnitude-Frequency Characteristics of Microseismicity Detected via Matched-Filter Analysis, Central Southern Alps, New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Boese, C. M.; Townend, J.; Chamberlain, C. J.; Warren-Smith, E.

2016-12-01

Microseismicity recorded since 2008 by the Southern Alps Microseismicity Borehole Array (SAMBA) and other predominantly short-period seismic networks deployed in the central Southern Alps, New Zealand, reveals distinctive patterns of triggering in response to regional seismicity (magnitudes larger than 5, epicentral distances of 100-500 km). Using matched-filter detection methods implemented in the EQcorrscan package (Chamberlain et al., in prep.), we analyze microseismicity occurring in several geographically distinct swarms in order to examine the responses of specific microearthquake sources to earthquakes of different sizes occurring at different distances and azimuths. The swarms exhibit complex responses to regional seismicity which reveal that microearthquake triggering in these cases involves a combination of extrinsic factors (related to the dynamic stresses produced by the regional earthquake) and intrinsic factors (controlled by the local state of stress and possibly by hydrogeological processes). We find also that the microearthquakes detected by individual templates have Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency characteristics. Since the detected events, by design, have very similar hypocentres and focal mechanisms, the observed scaling pertains to a restricted set of fault planes.

Geologic Inheritance and Earthquake Rupture Processes: The 1905 M ≥ 8 Tsetserleg-Bulnay Strike-Slip Earthquake Sequence, Mongolia

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Jin-Hyuck; Klinger, Yann; Ferry, Matthieu; Ritz, Jean-François; Kurtz, Robin; Rizza, Magali; Bollinger, Laurent; Davaasambuu, Battogtokh; Tsend-Ayush, Nyambayar; Demberel, Sodnomsambuu

2018-02-01

In 1905, 14 days apart, two M 8 continental strike-slip earthquakes, the Tsetserleg and Bulnay earthquakes, occurred on the Bulnay fault system, in Mongolia. Together, they ruptured four individual faults, with a total length of 676 km. Using submetric optical satellite images "Pleiades" with ground resolution of 0.5 m, complemented by field observation, we mapped in detail the entire surface rupture associated with this earthquake sequence. Surface rupture along the main Bulnay fault is 388 km in length, striking nearly E-W. The rupture is formed by a series of fault segments that are 29 km long on average, separated by geometric discontinuities. Although there is a difference of about 2 m in the average slip between the western and eastern parts of the Bulnay rupture, along-fault slip variations are overall limited, resulting in a smooth slip distribution, except for local slip deficit at segment boundaries. We show that damage, including short branches and secondary faulting, associated with the rupture propagation, occurred significantly more often along the western part of the Bulnay rupture, while the eastern part of the rupture appears more localized and thus possibly structurally simpler. Eventually, the difference of slip between the western and eastern parts of the rupture is attributed to this difference of rupture localization, associated at first order with a lateral change in the local geology. Damage associated to rupture branching appears to be located asymmetrically along the extensional side of the strike-slip rupture and shows a strong dependence on structural geologic inheritance.

The Al Hoceima earthquake sequence of 1994, 2004 and 2016: Stress transfer and poroelasticity in the Rif and Alboran Sea region

Science.gov (United States)

Kariche, J.; Meghraoui, M.; Timoulali, Y.; Cetin, E.; Toussaint, R.

2018-01-01

The 2016 January 25 earthquake (Mw 6.3) follows in sequence from the1994 May 26 earthquake (Mw 6.0) and the 2004 February 24 earthquake (Mw 6.4) in the Rif Mountains and Alboran Sea. The earlier two seismic events which were destructive took place on inland conjugate faults, and the third event occurred on an offshore fault. These earthquake sequences occurred within a period of 22 yr at ˜25 km distance and 11-16-km depth. The three events have similar strike-slip focal mechanism solutions with NNE-SSW trending left-lateral faulting for the 1994 and 2016 events and NW-SE trending right-lateral faulting for the 2004 event. This shallow seismic sequence offers the possibility (i) to model the change in Coulomb Failure Function (ΔCFF with low μ΄ including the pore pressure change) and understand fault-rupture interaction, and (ii) to analyse the effect of pore fluid on the rupture mechanism, and infer the clock-time advance. The variation of static stress change has a direct impact on the main shock, aftershocks and related positive lobes of the 2004 earthquake rupture with a stress change increase of 0.7-1.1 bar. Similarly, the 2004 main shock and aftershocks indicate loading zones with a stress change (>0.25 bar) that includes the 2016 earthquake rupture. The tectonic loading of 19-24 nanostrain yr-1 obtained from the seismicity catalogue of Morocco is comparable to the 5.0 × 1017 N.m yr-1 seismic strain release in the Rif Mountains. The seismic sequence is apparently controlled by the poroelastic properties of the seismogenic layer that depend on the undrained and drained fluid conditions. The short interseismic period between main shocks and higher rate of aftershocks with relatively large magnitudes (4 stress-rate ranges between 461 and 582 Pa yr-1 with a ΔCFF of 0.2-1.1 bar. The computed clock-time advance reaches 239 ± 22 yr in agreement with the ˜10 yr delay between main shocks. The calculated static stress change of 0.9-1.3 bar, under pore

Comparisons of Source Characteristics between Recent Inland Crustal Earthquake Sequences inside and outside of Niigata-Kobe Tectonic Zone, Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Somei, K.; Asano, K.; Iwata, T.; Miyakoshi, K.

2012-12-01

After the 1995 Kobe earthquake, many M7-class inland earthquakes occurred in Japan. Some of those events (e.g., the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake) occurred in a tectonic zone which is characterized as a high strain rate zone by the GPS observation (Sagiya et al., 2000) or dense distribution of active faults. That belt-like zone along the coast in Japan Sea side of Tohoku and Chubu districts, and north of Kinki district, is called as the Niigata-Kobe tectonic zone (NKTZ, Sagiya et al, 2000). We investigate seismic scaling relationship for recent inland crustal earthquake sequences in Japan and compare source characteristics between events occurring inside and outside of NKTZ. We used S-wave coda part for estimating source spectra. Source spectral ratio is obtained by S-wave coda spectral ratio between the records of large and small events occurring close to each other from nation-wide strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and broad-band seismic network (F-net) to remove propagation-path and site effects. We carefully examined the commonality of the decay of coda envelopes between event-pair records and modeled the observed spectral ratio by the source spectral ratio function with assuming omega-square source model for large and small events. We estimated the corner frequencies and seismic moment (ratio) from those modeled spectral ratio function. We determined Brune's stress drops of 356 events (Mw: 3.1-6.9) in ten earthquake sequences occurring in NKTZ and six sequences occurring outside of NKTZ. Most of source spectra obey omega-square source spectra. There is no obvious systematic difference between stress drops of events in NKTZ zone and others. We may conclude that the systematic tendency of seismic source scaling of the events occurred inside and outside of NKTZ does not exist and the average source scaling relationship can be effective for inland crustal earthquakes. Acknowledgements: Waveform data were provided from K-NET, KiK-net and F-net operated by

Variations of local seismic response in Benevento (Southern Italy) using earthquakes and ambient noise recordings

Science.gov (United States)

Improta, Luigi; di Giulio, Giuseppe; Rovelli, Antonio

The city of Benevento (Southern Italy) has been repeatedly struck by large historical earthquakes. A heterogeneous geologic structure and widespread soft soil conditions make the estimation of site effects crucial for the seismic hazard assessment of the city. From 2000 until 2004, we installed seismic stations to collect earthquake data over zones with different geological conditions. Despite the high level of urban noise, we recorded more than 150 earthquakes at twelve sites. This data set yields the first, well documented experimental evidence for weak to moderate local amplifications. We investigated site effects primarily by the classical spectral ratio technique (CSR) using a rock station placed on the Benevento hill as reference. All sites in the Calore river valley and in the eastern part of the Benevento hill show a moderate high-frequency (f > 4 Hz) amplification peak. Conversely, sites in the Sabato river valley share weak-to-moderate amplification in a wide frequency band (from 1-2 to 7-10 Hz), without evident frequency peaks. Application of no-reference-site techniques to earthquake and noise data confirms the results of the CSRs in the sites of the Calore river valley and of the eastern part of the Benevento hill, but fails in providing indications for site effects in the Sabato river valley, being the H/V ratios nearly flat. One-dimensional modeling indicates that the ground motion amplification can be essentially explained in terms of a vertically varying geologic structure. High-frequency narrow peaks are caused by the strong impedance contrast existing between near-surface soft deposits and stiff cemented conglomerates. Conversely, broad-band amplifications in the Sabato river valley are likely due to a more complex layering with weak impedance contrasts both in the shallow and deep structure of the valley.

3-D crustal structure beneath the southern Korean Peninsula from local earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, K. H.; Park, J. H.; Park, Y.; Hao, T.; Kang, S. Y.; Kim, H. J.

2017-12-01

Located at the eastern margin of the Eurasian continent, the geology and tectonic evolution of the Korean Peninsula are closely related to the rest of the Asian continent. Although the widespread deformation of eastern Asia and its relation to the geology and tectonics of the Korean Peninsula have been extensively studied, the answers to many fundamental questions about the peninsula's history remain inconclusive. The three-dimensional subsurface structure beneath the southern Korean Peninsula is poorly known, even though such information could be key in verifying or rejecting several competing models of the tectonic evolution of East Asia. We constructed a three-dimensional velocity model of the upper crust beneath the southern Korean Peninsula using 19,935 P-wave arrivals from 747 earthquakes recorded by high-density local seismic networks maintained by Korea Meteorological Administration and Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources. Results show significant lateral and vertical variations: velocity increases from northwest to southeast at shallow depths, and significant velocity variations are observed across the South Korea Tectonic Line between the Okcheon Fold Belt and the Youngnam Massif. Collision between the North China and South China blocks during the Early Cretaceous might have caused extensive deformation and the observed negative velocity anomalies in the region. The results of the tomographic inversion, combined with the findings of previous studies of Bouguer and isostatic gravity anomalies, indicate the presence of high-density material in the upper and middle crust beneath the Gyeongsang Basin in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. Although our results partially support the indentation tectonic model, it is still premature to discard other tectonic evolution models because our study only covers the southern half of the peninsula.

The earthquakes of the Baltic shield

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Slunga, R.

1990-06-01

More than 200 earthquakes in the Baltic Shield area in the size range ML 0.6-4.5 have been studied by dense regional seismic networks. The analysis includes focal depths, dynamic source parameters, and fault plane solutions. In southern Sweden a long part of the Protogene zone marks a change in the seismic activity. The focal depths indicate three crustal layers: Upper crust (0-18 km in southern Sweden, 0-13 km in northern Sweden), middle crust down to 35 km, and the quiet lower crust. The fault plane solutions show that strike-slip is dominating. Along the Tornquist line significant normal faulting occurs. The stresses released by the earthquakes show a remarkable consistency with a regional principle compression N60W. This indicates that plate-tectonic processes are more important than the land uplift. The spatial distribution is consistent with a model where the earthquakes are breakdowns of asperities on normally stably sliding faults. The aseismic sliding is estimated to be 2000 times more extensive than the seismic sliding. Southern Sweden is estimated to deform horizontally at a rate of 1 mm/year or more. (orig.)

3-D Dynamic rupture simulation for the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence: Foreshocks and M6 dynamically triggered event

Science.gov (United States)

Ando, R.; Aoki, Y.; Uchide, T.; Imanishi, K.; Matsumoto, S.; Nishimura, T.

2016-12-01

A couple of interesting earthquake rupture phenomena were observed associated with the sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake sequence. The sequence includes the April 15, 2016, Mw 7.0, mainshock, which was preceded by multiple M6-class foreshock. The mainshock mainly broke the Futagawa fault segment striking NE-SW direction extending over 50km, and it further triggered a M6-class earthquake beyond the distance more than 50km to the northeast (Uchide et al., 2016, submitted), where an active volcano is situated. Compiling the data of seismic analysis and InSAR, we presumed this dynamic triggering event occurred on an active fault known as Yufuin fault (Ando et al., 2016, JPGU general assembly). It is also reported that the coseismic slip was significantly large at a shallow portion of Futagawa Fault near Aso volcano. Since the seismogenic depth becomes significantly shallower in these two areas, we presume the geothermal anomaly play a role as well as the elasto-dynamic processes associated with the coseismic rupture. In this study, we conducted a set of fully dynamic simulations of the earthquake rupture process by assuming the inferred 3D fault geometry and the regional stress field obtained referring the stress tensor inversion. As a result, we showed that the dynamic rupture process was mainly controlled by the irregularity of the fault geometry subjected to the gently varying regional stress field. The foreshocks ruptures have been arrested at the juncture of the branch faults. We also show that the dynamic triggering of M-6 class earthquakes occurred along the Yufuin fault segment (located 50 km NE) because of the strong stress transient up to a few hundreds of kPa due to the rupture directivity effect of the M-7 event. It is also shown that the geothermal condition may lead to the susceptible condition of the dynamic triggering by considering the plastic shear zone on the down dip extension of the Yufuin segment, situated in the vicinity of an

Investigating the March 28th 1875 and the September 20th 1920 earthquakes/tsunamis of the Southern Vanuatu arc, offshore Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia

Science.gov (United States)

Ioualalen, Mansour; Pelletier, Bernard; Solis Gordillo, Gabriela

2017-07-01

New Caledonia's Loyalty Islands are located in the southwest region of the Pacific ocean in the highly seismogenic southern Vanuatu subduction zone and therefore may be subject to devastating local tsunamis. Over the past 150 years, two large tsunamis were triggered by major earthquakes on March 28th 1875 and September 20th 1920. In this study, we use historical observations of these tsunamis (mostly in the form of testimonials), earthquake scenarios, and tsunami modeling to derive the magnitudes of these earthquakes, as well as tsunami runup and inundation maps. Assuming that these earthquakes were located on the interplate megathrust zone, the 1875 earthquake's magnitude was Mw8.1-8.2 and the 1920 event's magnitude was Mw7.5-7.8. The tsunami damage inflicted on the Lifou and Maré islands was approximately proportional to these magnitudes, with Maré being less impacted due to favorable wave directivity. Damage at Ouvéa island may have varied irregularly with the magnitude due to the effects of resonance. This study demonstrates that the quantitative characteristics of historical tsunamigenic earthquakes may be derived from qualitative estimates of tsunami runup.

The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Duputel, Zacharie; Jiang, Junle; Jolivet, Romain; Simons, Mark; Rivera, Luis; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Riel, Bryan; Owen, Susan E; Moore, Angelyn W; Samsonov, Sergey V; Ortega Culaciati, Francisco; Minson, Sarah E.

2016-01-01

The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.

Conditional Probabilities of Large Earthquake Sequences in California from the Physics-based Rupture Simulator RSQSim

Science.gov (United States)

Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.; Shaw, B. E.; Milner, K. R.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.; Dieterich, J. H.

2017-12-01

Within the SCEC Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM), we are developing physics-based forecasting models for earthquake ruptures in California. We employ the 3D boundary element code RSQSim (Rate-State Earthquake Simulator of Dieterich & Richards-Dinger, 2010) to generate synthetic catalogs with tens of millions of events that span up to a million years each. This code models rupture nucleation by rate- and state-dependent friction and Coulomb stress transfer in complex, fully interacting fault systems. The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault and deformation models are used to specify the fault geometry and long-term slip rates. We have employed the Blue Waters supercomputer to generate long catalogs of simulated California seismicity from which we calculate the forecasting statistics for large events. We have performed probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with RSQSim catalogs that were calibrated with system-wide parameters and found a remarkably good agreement with UCERF3 (Milner et al., this meeting). We build on this analysis, comparing the conditional probabilities of sequences of large events from RSQSim and UCERF3. In making these comparisons, we consider the epistemic uncertainties associated with the RSQSim parameters (e.g., rate- and state-frictional parameters), as well as the effects of model-tuning (e.g., adjusting the RSQSim parameters to match UCERF3 recurrence rates). The comparisons illustrate how physics-based rupture simulators might assist forecasters in understanding the short-term hazards of large aftershocks and multi-event sequences associated with complex, multi-fault ruptures.

The Klamath Falls, Oregon, earthquakes on September 20, 1993

Science.gov (United States)

Brantley, S.R.

1993-01-01

The strongest earthquake to strike Oregon in more than 50 yrs struck the southern part of the State on September 20, 1993. These shocks, a magnitude 5.9 earthquake at 8:28pm and a magnitude 6.0 earthquake at 10:45pm, were the opening salvo in a swarm of earthquakes that continued for more than three months. During this period, several thousand aftershocks, many strong enough to be felt, were recorded by seismographs.

Comparison of four moderate-size earthquakes in southern California using seismology and InSAR

Science.gov (United States)

Mellors, R.J.; Magistrale, H.; Earle, P.; Cogbill, A.H.

2004-01-01

Source parameters determined from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measurements and from seismic data are compared from four moderate-size (less than M 6) earthquakes in southern California. The goal is to verify approximate detection capabilities of InSAR, assess differences in the results, and test how the two results can be reconciled. First, we calculated the expected surface deformation from all earthquakes greater than magnitude 4 in areas with available InSAR data (347 events). A search for deformation from the events in the interferograms yielded four possible events with magnitudes less than 6. The search for deformation was based on a visual inspection as well as cross-correlation in two dimensions between the measured signal and the expected signal. A grid-search algorithm was then used to estimate focal mechanism and depth from the InSAR data. The results were compared with locations and focal mechanisms from published catalogs. An independent relocation using seismic data was also performed. The seismic locations fell within the area of the expected rupture zone for the three events that show clear surface deformation. Therefore, the technique shows the capability to resolve locations with high accuracy and is applicable worldwide. The depths determined by InSAR agree with well-constrained seismic locations determined in a 3D velocity model. Depth control for well-imaged shallow events using InSAR data is good, and better than the seismic constraints in some cases. A major difficulty for InSAR analysis is the poor temporal coverage of InSAR data, which may make it impossible to distinguish deformation due to different earthquakes at the same location.

The 2016 south Alboran earthquake (Mw = 6.4): A reactivation of the Ibero-Maghrebian region?

Science.gov (United States)

Buforn, E.; Pro, C.; Sanz de Galdeano, C.; Cantavella, J. V.; Cesca, S.; Caldeira, B.; Udías, A.; Mattesini, M.

2017-08-01

On 25 January 2016, an earthquake of magnitude Mw = 6.4 occurred at the southern part of the Alboran Sea, between southern Spain and northern Morocco. This shock was preceded by a foreshock (Mw = 5.1) and followed by a long aftershock sequence. Focal mechanism of main shock has been estimated from slip inversion of body waves at teleseismic distances. Solution corresponds to left-lateral strike-slip motion, showing a complex bilateral rupture, formed by two sub-events, with most energy propagating along a plane oriented N30°E plane dipping to the NW. Relocation of larger events of the aftershock series, show two alignments of epicentres in NE-SW and NNE-SSW direction that intersect at the epicentre of the main shock. We have estimated the focal mechanisms of the largest aftershocks from moment tensor inversion at regional distances. We have obtained two families of focal mechanisms corresponding to strike slip for the NNE-SSW alignment and thrusting motion for the NE-SW alignment. Among the faults present in the area the Al Idrisi fault (or fault zone) may be a good candidate for the source of this earthquake. The study of Coulomb Failure Stress shows that it is possible that the 2016 earthquake was triggered by the previous nearby earthquakes of 1994 (Mw = 5.8) and 2004 (Mw = 6.3). The possible seismic reactivation of the central part of the Ibero-Maghrebian region is an open question, but it is clear that the occurrence of the 2016 earthquake confirms that from 1994 the seismicity of central part of IMR is increasing and that focal mechanism of largest earthquakes in this central part correspond to complex ruptures (or zone of fault).

Characterization of earthquake-induced ground motion from the L'Aquila seismic sequence of 2009, Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Malagnini, Luca; Akinci, Aybige; Mayeda, Kevin; Munafo', Irene; Herrmann, Robert B.; Mercuri, Alessia

2011-01-01

Based only on weak-motion data, we carried out a combined study on region-specific source scaling and crustal attenuation in the Central Apennines (Italy). Our goal was to obtain a reappraisal of the existing predictive relationships for the ground motion, and to test them against the strong-motion data [peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral acceleration (SA)] gathered during the Mw 6.15 L'Aquila earthquake (2009 April 6, 01:32 UTC). The L'Aquila main shock was not part of the predictive study, and the validation test was an extrapolation to one magnitude unit above the largest earthquake of the calibration data set. The regional attenuation was determined through a set of regressions on a data set of 12 777 high-quality, high-gain waveforms with excellent S/N ratios (4259 vertical and 8518 horizontal time histories). Seismograms were selected from the recordings of 170 foreshocks and aftershocks of the sequence (the complete set of all earthquakes with ML≥ 3.0, from 2008 October 1 to 2010 May 10). All waveforms were downloaded from the ISIDe web page (), a web site maintained by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). Weak-motion data were used to obtain a moment tensor solution, as well as a coda-based moment-rate source spectrum, for each one of the 170 events of the L'Aquila sequence (2.8 ≤Mw≤ 6.15). Source spectra were used to verify the good agreement with the source scaling of the Colfiorito seismic sequence of 1997-1998 recently described by Malagnini (2008). Finally, results on source excitation and crustal attenuation were used to produce the absolute site terms for the 23 stations located within ˜80 km of the epicentral area. The complete set of spectral corrections (crustal attenuation and absolute site effects) was used to implement a fast and accurate tool for the automatic computation of moment magnitudes in the Central Apennines.

Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

2012-01-01

The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

The Macroseismic Intensity Distribution of the 30 October 2016 Earthquake in Central Italy (Mw 6.6): Seismotectonic Implications

Science.gov (United States)

Galli, Paolo; Castenetto, Sergio; Peronace, Edoardo

2017-10-01

The central Italy Apennines were rocket in 2016 by the strongest earthquakes of the past 35 years. Two main shocks (Mw 6.2 and Mw 6.6) between the end of August and October caused the death of almost 300 people, and the destruction of 50 villages and small towns scattered along 40 km in the hanging wall of the N165° striking Mount Vettore fault system, that is, the structure responsible for the earthquakes. The 24 August southern earthquake, besides causing all the casualties, razed to the ground the small medieval town of Amatrice and dozens of hamlets around it. The 30 October main shock crushed definitely all the villages of the whole epicentral area (up to 11 intensity degree), extending northward the level of destruction and inducing heavy damage even to the 30 km far Camerino town. The survey of the macroseismic effects started the same day of the first main shock and continued during the whole seismic sequence, even during and after the strong earthquakes at the end of October, allowing the definition of a detailed picture of the damage distribution, day by day. Here we present the results of the final survey in terms of Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg intensity, which account for the cumulative effects of the whole 2016 sequence (465 intensity data points, besides 435 related to the 24 August and 54 to the 26 October events, respectively). The distribution of the highest intensity data points evidenced the lack of any possible overlap between the 2016 earthquakes and the strongest earthquakes of the region, making this sequence a unique case in the seismic history of Italy. In turn, the cross matching with published paleoseismic data provided some interesting insights concerning the seismogenic behavior of the Mount Vettore fault in comparison with other active normal faults of the region.

Low Velocity Zones along the San Jacinto Fault, Southern California, inferred from Local Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Z.; Yang, H.; Peng, Z.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Vernon, F.

2013-12-01

Natural fault zones have regions of brittle damage leading to a low-velocity zone (LVZ) in the immediate vicinity of the main fault interface. The LVZ may amplify ground motion, modify rupture propagation, and impact derivation of earthquke properties. Here we image low-velocity fault zone structures along the San Jacinto Fault (SJF), southern California, using waveforms of local earthquakes that are recorded at several dense arrays across the SJFZ. We use generalized ray theory to compute synthetic travel times to track the direct and FZ-reflected waves bouncing from the FZ boundaries. This method can effectively reduce the trade-off between FZ width and velocity reduction relative to the host rock. Our preliminary results from travel time modeling show the clear signature of LVZs along the SJF, including the segment of the Anza seismic gap. At the southern part near the trifrication area, the LVZ of the Clark Valley branch (array JF) has a width of ~200 m with ~55% reduction in Vp and Vs. This is consistent with what have been suggested from previous studies. In comparison, we find that the velocity reduction relative to the host rock across the Anza seismic gap (array RA) is ~50% for both Vp and Vs, nearly as prominent as that on the southern branches. The width of the LVZ is ~230 m. In addition, the LVZ across the Anza gap appears to locate in the northeast side of the RA array, implying potential preferred propagation direction of past ruptures.

Southern San Andreas Fault seismicity is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Page, Morgan T.; Felzer, Karen

2015-01-01

The magnitudes of any collection of earthquakes nucleating in a region are generally observed to follow the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. On some major faults, however, paleoseismic rates are higher than a G-R extrapolation from the modern rate of small earthquakes would predict. This, along with other observations, led to formulation of the characteristic earthquake hypothesis, which holds that the rate of small to moderate earthquakes is permanently low on large faults relative to the large-earthquake rate (Wesnousky et al., 1983; Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984). We examine the rate difference between recent small to moderate earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) and the paleoseismic record, hypothesizing that the discrepancy can be explained as a rate change in time rather than a deviation from G-R statistics. We find that with reasonable assumptions, the rate changes necessary to bring the small and large earthquake rates into alignment agree with the size of rate changes seen in epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) modeling, where aftershock triggering of large earthquakes drives strong fluctuations in the seismicity rates for earthquakes of all magnitudes. The necessary rate changes are also comparable to rate changes observed for other faults worldwide. These results are consistent with paleoseismic observations of temporally clustered bursts of large earthquakes on the SSAF and the absence of M greater than or equal to 7 earthquakes on the SSAF since 1857.

Facts learnt from the Hanshin-Awaji disaster and consideration on design basis earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shibata, Heki

1997-01-01

This paper will deal with how to establish the concept of the design basis earthquake for critical industrial facilities such as nuclear power plants in consideration of disasters induced by the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake (Southern Hyogo-prefecture Earthquake-1995), so-called Kobe earthquake. The author once discussed various DBEs at 7 WCEE. At that time, the author assumed that the strongest effective PGA would be 0.7 G, and compared to the values of accelerations to a structure obtained by various codes in Japan and other countries. The maximum PGA observed by an instrument at the Southern Hyogo-pref. Earthquake-1995 exceeded the previous assumption of the author, even though the evaluation results of the previous paper had been pessimistic. According to the experience of Kobe event, the author will point out the necessity of the third earthquake S s adding to S 1 and S 2 , previous DBEs. (author)

Structure of the subducted Cocos Plate from locations of intermediate-depth earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Lomnitz, C.; Rodríguez-Padilla, L. D.; Castaños, H.

2013-05-01

Locations of 3,000 earthquakes of 40 to 300 km depth are used to define the 3-D structure of the subducted Cocos Plate under central and southern Mexico. Discrepancies between deep-seated lineaments and surface tectonics are described. Features of particular interest include: (1) a belt of moderate activity at 40 to 80 km depth that parallels the southern boundary of the Mexican Volcanic Plateau; (2) an offset of 150 km across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec where all seismic activity is displaced toward the northeast; (3) three nests of frequent, deep-seated events (80 to 300 km depth) under southern Veracruz, Chiapas and the coast of Mexico-Guatemala. The active subduction process is sharply delimited along a NW-SE lineament from the Yucatan Peninsula, of insignificant earthquake activity. The focal distribution of intermediate-depth earthquakes in south-central Mexico provides evidence of stepwise deepening of the subduction angle along the Trench, starting at 15 degrees under Michoacan-Guerrero to 45 degrees under NW Guatemala. Historical evidence suggests that the hazard to Mexico City from large intermediate-depth earthquakes may have been underestimated.

Emergency preparedness activities during an ongoing seismic swarm: the experience of the 2011-2012 Pollino (Southern Italy) sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Masi, A.; Mucciarelli, M.; Chiauzzi, L.; De Costanzo, G.; Loperte, G.

2012-04-01

Facing natural disasters effects can be a very difficult task lacking suitable activities and tools to preventively prepare the involved community (people, authorities, professionals, …) to the expected events. Therefore, a suite of preventive actions should be carried out to mitigate natural risks, in particular working to reduce the territorial vulnerability with respect to the specific natural hazard at hand, and to increase people response capacity. In fact, building social capacity helps to increase the risk perception and the people capacity to adapt to and cope with natural hazards. Since October 2011 a seismic swarm is affecting the Pollino mountain range, Southern Italy. At present the sequence is still ongoing, with more than 500 events with M>1, at least 40 well perceived by the population and a maximum magnitude at 3.6. The area mainly affected by the seismic sequence includes 12 villages, with a total population of about 50.000 inhabitants and, according to the current seismic hazard map it has high seismicity level. Such area was hit by a magnitude Ml=5.7 event in 1998 that produced macroseismic intensity not higher that VII-VIII degree of MCS scale and caused one dead, some injured and widespread damage in at least six municipalities. During the sequence, the National Department of Civil Protection (DPC) and the Civil Protection of Basilicata Region decided to put in action some measures aimed at verifying and enhancing emergency preparedness. These actions have been carried out with a constant and fruitful collaboration among the main stakeholders involved (scientific community, local and national governmental agencies, civil protection volunteers, etc) trough the following main activities: 1. collaboration between scientific community and the local and national offices of Civil Protection especially in the relationship with local authorities (e.g. mayors, which are civil protection authorities in their municipality); 2. interaction between DPC

Facts learnt from the Hanshin-Awaji disaster and consideration on design basis earthquake

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shibata, Heki [Yokohama National Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

1997-03-01

This paper will deal with how to establish the concept of the design basis earthquake for critical industrial facilities such as nuclear power plants in consideration of disasters induced by the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake (Southern Hyogo-prefecture Earthquake-1995), so-called Kobe earthquake. The author once discussed various DBEs at 7 WCEE. At that time, the author assumed that the strongest effective PGA would be 0.7 G, and compared to the values of accelerations to a structure obtained by various codes in Japan and other countries. The maximum PGA observed by an instrument at the Southern Hyogo-pref. Earthquake-1995 exceeded the previous assumption of the author, even though the evaluation results of the previous paper had been pessimistic. According to the experience of Kobe event, the author will point out the necessity of the third earthquake S{sub s} adding to S{sub 1} and S{sub 2}, previous DBEs. (author)

Earthquake statistics, spatiotemporal distribution of foci and source mechanisms - a key to understanding of the West Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake swarms

Science.gov (United States)

Horálek, Josef; Čermáková, Hana; Fischer, Tomáš

2016-04-01

Earthquake swarms are sequences of numerous events closely clustered in space and time and do not have a single dominant mainshock. A few of the largest events in a swarm reach similar magnitudes and usually occur throughout the course of the earthquake sequence. These attributes differentiate earthquake swarms from ordinary mainshock-aftershock sequences. Earthquake swarms occur worldwide, in diverse geological units. The swarms typically accompany volcanic activity at margins of the tectonic plate but also occur in intracontinental areas where strain from tectonic-plate movement is small. The origin of earthquake swarms is still unclear. The swarms typically occur at the plate margins but also in intracontinental areas. West Bohemia-Vogtland represents one of the most active intraplate earthquake-swarm areas in Europe. It is characterised by a frequent reoccurrence of ML 2.8 swarm events are located in a few dense clusters which implies step by step rupturing of one or a few asperities during the individual swarms. The source mechanism patters (moment-tensor description, MT) of the individual swarms indicate several families of the mechanisms, which fit well geometry of respective fault segments. MTs of the most events signify pure shears except for the 1997-swarm events the MTs of which indicates a combine sources including both shear and tensile components. The origin of earthquake swarms is still unclear. Nevertheless, we infer that the individual earthquake swarms in West Bohemia-Vogtland are mixture of the mainshock-aftershock sequences which correspond to step by step rupturing of one or a few asperities. The swarms occur on short fault segments with heterogeneous stress and strength, which may be affected by pressurized crustal fluids reducing normal component of the tectonic stress and lower friction. This way critically loaded faults are brought to failure and the swarm activity is driven by the differential local stress.

Southern Appalachian Regional Seismic Network

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chiu, S.C.C.; Johnston, A.C.; Chiu, J.M. [Memphis State Univ., TN (United States). Center for Earthquake Research and Information

1994-08-01

The seismic activity in the southern Appalachian area was monitored by the Southern Appalachian Regional Seismic Network (SARSN) since late 1979 by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at Memphis State University. This network provides good spatial coverage for earthquake locations especially in east Tennessee. The level of activity concentrates more heavily in the Valley and Ridge province of eastern Tennessee, as opposed to the Blue Ridge or Inner Piedmont. The large majority of these events lie between New York - Alabama lineament and the Clingman/Ocoee lineament, magnetic anomalies produced by deep-seated basement structures. Therefore SARSN, even with its wide station spacing, has been able to define the essential first-order seismological characteristics of the Southern Appalachian seismic zone. The focal depths of the southeastern U.S. earthquakes concentrate between 8 and 16 km, occurring principally beneath the Appalachian overthrust. In cross-sectional views, the average seismicity is shallower to the east beneath the Blue Ridge and Piedmont provinces and deeper to the west beneath the Valley and Ridge and the North American craton. Results of recent focal mechanism studies by using the CERI digital earthquake catalog between October, 1986 and December, 1991, indicate that the basement of the Valley and Ridge province is under a horizontal, NE-SW compressive stress. Right-lateral strike-slip faulting on nearly north-south fault planes is preferred because it agrees with the trend of the regional magnetic anomaly pattern.

Southern Appalachian Regional Seismic Network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiu, S.C.C.; Johnston, A.C.; Chiu, J.M.

1994-08-01

The seismic activity in the southern Appalachian area was monitored by the Southern Appalachian Regional Seismic Network (SARSN) since late 1979 by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at Memphis State University. This network provides good spatial coverage for earthquake locations especially in east Tennessee. The level of activity concentrates more heavily in the Valley and Ridge province of eastern Tennessee, as opposed to the Blue Ridge or Inner Piedmont. The large majority of these events lie between New York - Alabama lineament and the Clingman/Ocoee lineament, magnetic anomalies produced by deep-seated basement structures. Therefore SARSN, even with its wide station spacing, has been able to define the essential first-order seismological characteristics of the Southern Appalachian seismic zone. The focal depths of the southeastern U.S. earthquakes concentrate between 8 and 16 km, occurring principally beneath the Appalachian overthrust. In cross-sectional views, the average seismicity is shallower to the east beneath the Blue Ridge and Piedmont provinces and deeper to the west beneath the Valley and Ridge and the North American craton. Results of recent focal mechanism studies by using the CERI digital earthquake catalog between October, 1986 and December, 1991, indicate that the basement of the Valley and Ridge province is under a horizontal, NE-SW compressive stress. Right-lateral strike-slip faulting on nearly north-south fault planes is preferred because it agrees with the trend of the regional magnetic anomaly pattern

LiDAR Mapping of Earthquake Uplifted Paleo-shorelines, Southern Wairarapa Coast, North Island, New Zealand

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Valenciano, J.; Angenent, J.; Marshall, J. S.; Clark, K.; Litchfield, N. J.

2017-12-01

The Hikurangi subduction margin along the east coast of the North Island, New Zealand accommodates oblique convergence of the Pacific Plate westward beneath the Australian plate at 45 mm/yr. Pronounced forearc uplift occurs at the southern end of the margin along the Wairarapa coast, onshore of the subducting Hikurangi plateau. Along a narrow coastal lowland, a series of uplifted Holocene marine terraces and beach ridges preserve a geologic record of prehistoric coseismic uplift events. In January 2017, we participated in the Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) program of the NSF SHIRE Project (Subduction at Hikurangi Integrated Research Experiment). We visited multiple coastal sites for reconnaissance fieldwork to select locations for future in-depth study. For the coastline between Flat Point and Te Kaukau Point, we used airborne LiDAR data provided by Land Information New Zealand (LINZ) to create ArcGIS digital terrain models for mapping and correlating uplifted paleo-shorelines. Terrace elevations derived from the LiDAR data were calibrated through the use of Real Time Kinematic (RTK) GPS surveying at one field site (Glenburn Station). Prior field mapping and radiocarbon dating results (Berryman et al., 2001; Litchfield and Clark, 2015) were used to guide our LiDAR mapping efforts. The resultant maps show between four and seven uplifted terraces and associated beach ridges along this coastal segment. At some sites, terrace mapping and lateral correlation are impeded by discontinuous exposures and the presence of landslide debris, alluvial fan deposits, and sand dunes. Tectonic uplift along the southern Hikurangi margin is generated by a complex interaction between deep megathrust slip and shallow upper-plate faulting. Each uplifted Holocene paleo-shoreline is interpreted to represent a single coseismic uplift event. Continued mapping, surveying, and age dating may help differentiate between very large margin-wide megathrust earthquakes (M8.0-9.0+) and

Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from Scenario Earthquakes on the Chishan Fault in Southern Taiwan

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Kun-Sung Liu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to estimate maximum ground motions in southern Taiwan as well as to assess potential human fatalities from scenario earthquakes on the Chishan active faults in this area. The resultant Shake Map patterns of maximum ground motion in a case of Mw 7.2 show the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the northeastern, central and northern parts of southwestern Kaohsiung as well as the southern part of central Tainan, as shown in the regions inside the yellow lines in the corresponding figure. Comparing cities with similar distances located in Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Pingtung to the Chishan fault, the cities in Tainan area have relatively greater PGA and PGV, due to large site response factors in Tainan area. Furthermore, seismic hazards in terms of PGA and PGV in the vicinity of the Chishan fault are not completely dominated by the Chishan fault. The main reason is that some areas located in the vicinity of the Chishan fault are marked with low site response amplification values from 0.55 - 1.1 and 0.67 - 1.22 for PGA and PGV, respectively. Finally, from estimation of potential human fatalities from scenario earthquakes on the Chishan active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55 - 64. Another to pay special attention is Kaohsiung City has more than 540 thousand households whose residences over 50 years old. In light of the results of this study, I urge both the municipal and central governments to take effective seismic hazard mitigation measures in the highly urbanized areas with a large number of old buildings in southern Taiwan.

Characterizing spatial heterogeneity based on the b-value and fractal analyses of the 2015 Nepal earthquake sequence

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Nampally, Subhadra; Padhy, Simanchal; Dimri, Vijay P.

2018-01-01

The nature of spatial distribution of heterogeneities in the source area of the 2015 Nepal earthquake is characterized based on the seismic b-value and fractal analysis of its aftershocks. The earthquake size distribution of aftershocks gives a b-value of 1.11 ± 0.08, possibly representing the highly heterogeneous and low stress state of the region. The aftershocks exhibit a fractal structure characterized by a spectrum of generalized dimensions, Dq varying from D2 = 1.66 to D22 = 0.11. The existence of a fractal structure suggests that the spatial distribution of aftershocks is not a random phenomenon, but it self-organizes into a critical state, exhibiting a scale-independent structure governed by a power-law scaling, where a small perturbation in stress is sufficient enough to trigger aftershocks. In order to obtain the bias in fractal dimensions resulting from finite data size, we compared the multifractal spectrum for the real data and random simulations. On comparison, we found that the lower limit of bias in D2 is 0.44. The similarity in their multifractal spectra suggests the lack of long-range correlation in the data, with an only weakly multifractal or a monofractal with a single correlation dimension D2 characterizing the data. The minimum number of events required for a multifractal process with an acceptable error is discussed. We also tested for a possible correlation between changes in D2 and energy released during the earthquakes. The values of D2 rise during the two largest earthquakes (M > 7.0) in the sequence. The b- and D2 values are related by D2 = 1.45 b that corresponds to the intermediate to large earthquakes. Our results provide useful constraints on the spatial distribution of b- and D2-values, which are useful for seismic hazard assessment in the aftershock area of a large earthquake.

Earthquake simulations with time-dependent nucleation and long-range interactions

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J. H. Dieterich

1995-01-01

Full Text Available A model for rapid simulation of earthquake sequences is introduced which incorporates long-range elastic interactions among fault elements and time-dependent earthquake nucleation inferred from experimentally derived rate- and state-dependent fault constitutive properties. The model consists of a planar two-dimensional fault surface which is periodic in both the x- and y-directions. Elastic interactions among fault elements are represented by an array of elastic dislocations. Approximate solutions for earthquake nucleation and dynamics of earthquake slip are introduced which permit computations to proceed in steps that are determined by the transitions from one sliding state to the next. The transition-driven time stepping and avoidance of systems of simultaneous equations permit rapid simulation of large sequences of earthquake events on computers of modest capacity, while preserving characteristics of the nucleation and rupture propagation processes evident in more detailed models. Earthquakes simulated with this model reproduce many of the observed spatial and temporal characteristics of clustering phenomena including foreshock and aftershock sequences. Clustering arises because the time dependence of the nucleation process is highly sensitive to stress perturbations caused by nearby earthquakes. Rate of earthquake activity following a prior earthquake decays according to Omori's aftershock decay law and falls off with distance.

Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Labor Market Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake

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Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.

2008-01-01

The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of economic Super Sectors in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each Super Sector to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the scenario earthquake on economic sectors and provides a baseline for the indirect and interactive analysis of an input-output model of the regional economy. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by the North American Industry Classification System. According to the analysis results, nearly 225,000 business

Fault healing and earthquake spectra from stick slip sequences in the laboratory and on active faults

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McLaskey, G. C.; Glaser, S. D.; Thomas, A.; Burgmann, R.

2011-12-01

Repeating earthquake sequences (RES) are thought to occur on isolated patches of a fault that fail in repeated stick-slip fashion. RES enable researchers to study the effect of variations in earthquake recurrence time and the relationship between fault healing and earthquake generation. Fault healing is thought to be the physical process responsible for the 'state' variable in widely used rate- and state-dependent friction equations. We analyze RES created in laboratory stick slip experiments on a direct shear apparatus instrumented with an array of very high frequency (1KHz - 1MHz) displacement sensors. Tests are conducted on the model material polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA). While frictional properties of this glassy polymer can be characterized with the rate- and state- dependent friction laws, the rate of healing in PMMA is higher than room temperature rock. Our experiments show that in addition to a modest increase in fault strength and stress drop with increasing healing time, there are distinct spectral changes in the recorded laboratory earthquakes. Using the impact of a tiny sphere on the surface of the test specimen as a known source calibration function, we are able to remove the instrument and apparatus response from recorded signals so that the source spectrum of the laboratory earthquakes can be accurately estimated. The rupture of a fault that was allowed to heal produces a laboratory earthquake with increased high frequency content compared to one produced by a fault which has had less time to heal. These laboratory results are supported by observations of RES on the Calaveras and San Andreas faults, which show similar spectral changes when recurrence time is perturbed by a nearby large earthquake. Healing is typically attributed to a creep-like relaxation of the material which causes the true area of contact of interacting asperity populations to increase with time in a quasi-logarithmic way. The increase in high frequency seismicity shown here

What Can Sounds Tell Us About Earthquake Interactions?

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Aiken, C.; Peng, Z.

2012-12-01

It is important not only for seismologists but also for educators to effectively convey information about earthquakes and the influences earthquakes can have on each other. Recent studies using auditory display [e.g. Kilb et al., 2012; Peng et al. 2012] have depicted catastrophic earthquakes and the effects large earthquakes can have on other parts of the world. Auditory display of earthquakes, which combines static images with time-compressed sound of recorded seismic data, is a new approach to disseminating information to a general audience about earthquakes and earthquake interactions. Earthquake interactions are influential to understanding the underlying physics of earthquakes and other seismic phenomena such as tremors in addition to their source characteristics (e.g. frequency contents, amplitudes). Earthquake interactions can include, for example, a large, shallow earthquake followed by increased seismicity around the mainshock rupture (i.e. aftershocks) or even a large earthquake triggering earthquakes or tremors several hundreds to thousands of kilometers away [Hill and Prejean, 2007; Peng and Gomberg, 2010]. We use standard tools like MATLAB, QuickTime Pro, and Python to produce animations that illustrate earthquake interactions. Our efforts are focused on producing animations that depict cross-section (side) views of tremors triggered along the San Andreas Fault by distant earthquakes, as well as map (bird's eye) views of mainshock-aftershock sequences such as the 2011/08/23 Mw5.8 Virginia earthquake sequence. These examples of earthquake interactions include sonifying earthquake and tremor catalogs as musical notes (e.g. piano keys) as well as audifying seismic data using time-compression. Our overall goal is to use auditory display to invigorate a general interest in earthquake seismology that leads to the understanding of how earthquakes occur, how earthquakes influence one another as well as tremors, and what the musical properties of these

Evidence of Past Large Storms or Tsunamis from an Uplifted Section of the Southern Hikurangi Margin, Wairarapa Coast, New Zealand

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Mitchell, S. P.; Jessica, P.; Clark, K.; Kosciuch, T. J.; Reinhardt, E. G.

2017-12-01

Evidence of past large storms or tsunamis from an uplifted section of the southern Hikurangi margin, Wairarapa coast, New Zealand Stephen Mitchell1, Jessica Pilarczyk1, Kate Clark2, Thomas Kosciuch1, Eduard Reinhardt31University of Southern Mississippi, Department of Marine Science 2GNS Science, New Zealand 3McMaster University The Hikurangi margin, located along the east coast of New Zealand, has generated multiple tsunamigenic-earthquakes in the historic times that have impacted coastlines of the North Island. Knowledge of the possible magnitudes and recurrence intervals associated with Hikurangi earthquakes and tsunamis is necessary to understand and mitigate hazards facing New Zealand's coasts. Events such as the 1931 Napier earthquake, which caused severe ground shaking, and the Gisborne tsunami of 1947 that reached 10 meters high, demonstrate the earthquake and tsunami hazards associated with the Hikurangi margin. To better understand these hazards, longer-term geologic records are needed. Along the Wairarapa coast of the North Island of New Zealand, marine terraces provide evidence for multiple Hikurangi earthquakes over the past 7,000 years. Evidence for possible tsunami inundation in this area has also been discovered, but the record is patchy in spatial and temporal extent. We found three anomalous sand layers preserved within an uplifted beach exposure along the Wairarapa coast. The sand layers, consisting of very fine to coarse sand (3.5-0.8 Φ), sharply overlie paleosols containing fine to medium sized silt (6.1-7.1 Φ) in a sequence that extends for approximately 400 meters along shore. We assign a marine origin to the sand layers because they contain relatively high elemental concentrations of calcium and barium. By contrast, the paleosols contained relatively high elemental concentrations of iron. The marine sands contain evidence in support of tsunami inundation; rip-up clasts, coarse pulses, fining upward sequences, and erosive contacts were

Pump Damage in the Hanshin Earthquake

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Toshiyuki Osada

2000-01-01

Full Text Available There was a severe earthquake in the southern area ofHyogo prefecture in Japan on January 17, 1995. In this paper the damage to pump facilities caused by the earthquake, based on field investigation results in the Hanshin (Osaka–Kobe area is reported. In particular a lot of damage was reported in the pumping facilities for sewage or drainage of storm sewage. This paper also presents recommendations for aseismic design of pump facilities based on the results of the survey.

Memory effect in M ≥ 7 earthquakes of Taiwan

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Wang, Jeen-Hwa

2014-07-01

The M ≥ 7 earthquakes that occurred in the Taiwan region during 1906-2006 are taken to study the possibility of memory effect existing in the sequence of those large earthquakes. Those events are all mainshocks. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze two sequences in terms of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. For both magnitude and inter-event time, the calculations are made for three data sets, i.e., the original order data, the reverse-order data, and that of the mean values. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of both magnitude and inter-event time data. In addition, the phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Results lead to a negative answer. Together with all types of information in study, we make a conclusion that the earthquake sequence in study is short-term corrected and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.

The shallow sedimentary and structural deformation in the southern Longmen Shan: constraints on the seismotectonics of the 2013 Lushan Mw6.7 Earthquake

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Lu, R.; Xu, X.; He, D.; Suppe, J.

2017-12-01

On April 20, 2013, an unexpected Mw 6.7 earthquake occurred in Lushan County at the southern Longmen Shan, the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. After this Lushan earthquake, whether the seismogenic fault is a high-angle or low-angle fault? The structural characteristics, attribution, and the seismotectonic model of this earthquake have many debates and problems. In this study, a high-resolution seismic reflection profile was combined with near-surface geological data, earthquake relocation and geodetic measurements, and a recent deep artificial seismic reflection profile to identify the active fault and seismotectonics of this earthquake. Three-dimensional imaging of the aftershocks was used to identify two planar faults that together form a y-shape (f1 and f2). Seismic interpretations suggest that the seismogenic fault f1 is a typical basement blind fault that did not penetrate into the overlying Mesozoic and Cenozoic units, and it is not a Shuangshi-Dachuan fault (F4) or the frontal Dayi buried fault (F6). Geodetic measurements suggest that the coseismic deformation is consistent with the geometry and kinematics of shear fault-bend folding (FBF). The history of tectonic evolution since the Paleozoic in Longmen Shan area also referred. There are three major detachments control the structural deformation of the upper crust in the Longmen Shan and Western Sichuan Basin, resulting in multiple superimposed deformation events. Deep seismic data indicate the syndepositional nature of fault f1 a preexisting normal fault older than the Triassic, which underwent positive inversion tectonics during the Late Cenozoic. A thrust fault f3 converges with f1 at a depth of approximately12 km with an accumulated slip 3.6 km. This 2013 Lushan earthquake triggered by blind faults is a hidden earthquake. Since the Late Cenozoic, with the strong and on-going compression of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to the Sichuan Basin, the early-period normal faults were activated after

Reassessment of source parameters for three major earthquakes in the East African rift system from historical seismograms and bulletins

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O. Kulhánek

2000-06-01

Full Text Available Source parameters for three majo earthquakes in the East African rift are re-computed from historical seismograms and bulletins. The main shock and the largest foreshock of the August 25, 1906 earthquake sequence in the main Ethiopian rift are re-located on the eastern shoulder of the rift segment.The magnitude of the main shock is estimated to be 6.5 (Mw from spectral analysis. The December 13, 1910 earthquake in the Rukwa rift (Western Tanzania indicated a significant strike-slip component from teleseismcs body-waveform inversion for fault mechanism and seismic moment. The January 6, 1928 earthquake in the Gregory rift (Kenya showed a multiple rupture process and unusually long duration for a size of 6.6(Mw. The May 20, 1990 earthquake in Southern Sudan, mentioned merely for the sake of comparison, is the largest of all instrumentally recorded events in the East African rift system. Despite the fact that the mode of deformation in the continental rift is predominantly of extensional nature, the three largest earthquakes known to occur in the circum-Tanzanian craton have shallow focal depths and significant strike-slip component in their fault mechanisms. This and similar works will enrich the database for seismic hazard assessment in East Africa.

Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

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Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

2014-01-24

Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.

Evaluating spatial and temporal relationships between an earthquake cluster near Entiat, central Washington, and the large December 1872 Entiat earthquake

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Brocher, Thomas M.; Blakely, Richard J.; Sherrod, Brian

2017-01-01

We investigate spatial and temporal relations between an ongoing and prolific seismicity cluster in central Washington, near Entiat, and the 14 December 1872 Entiat earthquake, the largest historic crustal earthquake in Washington. A fault scarp produced by the 1872 earthquake lies within the Entiat cluster; the locations and areas of both the cluster and the estimated 1872 rupture surface are comparable. Seismic intensities and the 1–2 m of coseismic displacement suggest a magnitude range between 6.5 and 7.0 for the 1872 earthquake. Aftershock forecast models for (1) the first several hours following the 1872 earthquake, (2) the largest felt earthquakes from 1900 to 1974, and (3) the seismicity within the Entiat cluster from 1976 through 2016 are also consistent with this magnitude range. Based on this aftershock modeling, most of the current seismicity in the Entiat cluster could represent aftershocks of the 1872 earthquake. Other earthquakes, especially those with long recurrence intervals, have long‐lived aftershock sequences, including the Mw">MwMw 7.5 1891 Nobi earthquake in Japan, with aftershocks continuing 100 yrs after the mainshock. Although we do not rule out ongoing tectonic deformation in this region, a long‐lived aftershock sequence can account for these observations.

The 2013–2016 induced earthquakes in Harper and Sumner Counties, southern Kansas

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Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Dougherty, Sara L.

2018-01-01

We examine the first four years (2013–2016) of the ongoing seismicity in southern Kansas using high‐precision locations derived from a local seismometer network. The earthquakes occur almost exclusively in the shallow crystalline basement, below the wastewater injection horizon of the Arbuckle Group at the base of the sedimentary section. Multiple lines of evidence lead us to conclude that disposal of wastewater from the production of oil and gas by deep injection is the probable cause for the surge of seismicity that began in 2013. First, the seismicity correlates in space and time with the injection. We observe increases in seismicity subsequent to increases in injection and decreases in seismicity in response to decreases in injection. Second, the earthquake‐rate change is statistically improbable to be of natural origin. From 1974 through the time of the injection increase in 2012, no ML">ML 4 or larger earthquakes occurred in the study area, while six occurred between 2012 and 2016. The probability of this rate change occurring randomly is ∼0.16%">∼0.16%. Third, the other potential industrial drivers of seismicity (hydraulic fracturing and oil production) do not correlate in space or time with seismicity. Local geological conditions are important in determining whether injection operations will induce seismicity, as shown by absence of seismicity near the largest injection operations in the southwest portion of our study area. In addition to local operations, the presence of seismicity 10+ km from large injection wells indicates that regional injection operations also need to be considered to understand the effects of injection on seismicity.

The East Aegean Sea strong earthquake sequence of October–November 2005: lessons learned for earthquake prediction from foreshocks

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G. A. Papadopoulos

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The seismic sequence of October–November 2005 in the Samos area, East Aegean Sea, was studied with the aim to show how it is possible to establish criteria for (a the rapid recognition of both the ongoing foreshock activity and the mainshock, and (b the rapid discrimination between the foreshock and aftershock phases of activity. It has been shown that before the mainshock of 20 October 2005, foreshock activity is not recognizable in the standard earthquake catalogue. However, a detailed examination of the records in the SMG station, which is the closest to the activated area, revealed that hundreds of small shocks not listed in the standard catalogue were recorded in the time interval from 12 October 2005 up to 21 November 2005. The production of reliable relations between seismic signal duration and duration magnitude for earthquakes included in the standard catalogue, made it possible to use signal durations in SMG records and to determine duration magnitudes for 2054 small shocks not included in the standard catalogue. In this way a new catalogue with magnitude determination for 3027 events was obtained while the standard catalogue contains 1025 events. At least 55 of them occurred from 12 October 2005 up to the occurrence of the two strong foreshocks of 17 October 2005. This implies that foreshock activity developed a few days before the strong shocks of 17 October 2005 but it escaped recognition by the routine procedure of seismic analysis. The onset of the foreshock phase of activity is recognizable by the significant increase of the mean seismicity rate which increased exponentially with time. According to the least-squares approach the b-value of the magnitude-frequency relation dropped significantly during the foreshock activity with respect to the b-value prevailing in the declustered background seismicity. However, the maximum likelihood approach does not indicate such a drop of b. The b-value found for the aftershocks that

Megathrust earthquakes in Central Chile: What is next after the Maule 2010 earthquake?

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Madariaga, R.

2013-05-01

The 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake occurred in a well identified gap in the Chilean subduction zone. The event has now been studied in detail using both far-field, near field seismic and geodetic data, we will review this information gathered so far. The event broke a region that was much longer along strike than the gap left over from the 1835 Concepcion earthquake, sometimes called the Darwin earthquake because he was in the area when the earthquake occurred and made many observations. Recent studies of contemporary documents by Udias et al indicate that the area broken by the Maule earthquake in 2010 had previously broken by a similar earthquake in 1751, but several events in the magnitude 8 range occurred in the area principally in 1835 already mentioned and, more recently on 1 December 1928 to the North and on 21 May 1960 (1 1/2 days before the big Chilean earthquake of 1960). Currently the area of the 2010 earthquake and the region immediately to the North is undergoing a very large increase in seismicity with numerous clusters of seismicity that move along the plate interface. Examination of the seismicity of Chile of the 18th and 19th century show that the region immediately to the North of the 2010 earthquake broke in a very large megathrust event in July 1730. this is the largest known earthquake in central Chile. The region where this event occurred has broken in many occasions with M 8 range earthquakes in 1822, 1880, 1906, 1971 and 1985. Is it preparing for a new very large megathrust event? The 1906 earthquake of Mw 8.3 filled the central part of the gap but it has broken again on several occasions in 1971, 1973 and 1985. The main question is whether the 1906 earthquake relieved enough stresses from the 1730 rupture zone. Geodetic data shows that most of the region that broke in 1730 is currently almost fully locked from the northern end of the Maule earthquake at 34.5°S to 30°S, near the southern end of the of the Mw 8.5 Atacama earthquake of 11

Post-earthquake building safety inspection: Lessons from the Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquakes

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Marshall, J.; Jaiswal, Kishor; Gould, N.; Turner, F.; Lizundia, B.; Barnes, J.

2013-01-01

The authors discuss some of the unique aspects and lessons of the New Zealand post-earthquake building safety inspection program that was implemented following the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010–2011. The post-event safety assessment program was one of the largest and longest programs undertaken in recent times anywhere in the world. The effort engaged hundreds of engineering professionals throughout the country, and also sought expertise from outside, to perform post-earthquake structural safety inspections of more than 100,000 buildings in the city of Christchurch and the surrounding suburbs. While the building safety inspection procedure implemented was analogous to the ATC 20 program in the United States, many modifications were proposed and implemented in order to assess the large number of buildings that were subjected to strong and variable shaking during a period of two years. This note discusses some of the key aspects of the post-earthquake building safety inspection program and summarizes important lessons that can improve future earthquake response.

Rapid finite-fault inversions in Southern California using Cybershake Green's functions

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Thio, H. K.; Polet, J.

2017-12-01

We have developed a system for rapid finite fault inversion for intermediate and large Southern California earthquakes using local, regional and teleseismic seismic waveforms as well as geodetic data. For modeling the local seismic data, we use 3D Green's functions from the Cybershake project, which were made available to us courtesy of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). The use of 3D Green's functions allows us to extend the inversion to higher frequency waveform data and smaller magnitude earthquakes, in addition to achieving improved solutions in general. The ultimate aim of this work is to develop the ability to provide high quality finite fault models within a few hours after any damaging earthquake in Southern California, so that they may be used as input to various post-earthquake assessment tools such as ShakeMap, as well as by the scientific community and other interested parties. Additionally, a systematic determination of finite fault models has value as a resource for scientific studies on detailed earthquake processes, such as rupture dynamics and scaling relations. We are using an established least-squares finite fault inversion method that has been applied extensively both on large as well as smaller regional earthquakes, in conjunction with the 3D Green's functions, where available, as well as 1D Green's functions for areas for which the Cybershake library has not yet been developed. We are carrying out validation and calibration of this system using significant earthquakes that have occurred in the region over the last two decades, spanning a range of locations and magnitudes (5.4 and higher).

Preliminary report on Petatlan, Mexico: earthquake of 14 March 1979

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1979-01-01

A major earthquake, M/sub s/ = 7.6, occurred off the southern coast of Mexico near the town of Petatlan on 14 March 1979. The earthquake ruptured a 50-km-long section of the Middle American subduction zone, a seismic gap last ruptured by a major earthquake (M/sub s/ = 7.5) in 1943. Since adjacent gaps of approximately the same size have not had a large earthquake since 1911, and one of these suffered three major earthquakes in four years (1907, 1909, 1911), recurrence times for large events here are highly variable. Thus, this general area remains one of high seismic risk, and provides a focus for investigation of segmentation in the subduction processes. 2 figures.

Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes. Large earthquakes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavenda, B. [Camerino Univ., Camerino, MC (Italy); Cipollone, E. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, RM (Italy). National Centre for Research on Thermodynamics

2000-06-01

A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershocks sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Frechet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions show that self-similar power laws are transformed into non scaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Frechet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same catalogue of Chinese earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Frechet distribution. Earthquake temperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

Earthquake locations determined by the Southern Alaska seismograph network for October 1971 through May 1989

Science.gov (United States)

Fogleman, Kent A.; Lahr, John C.; Stephens, Christopher D.; Page, Robert A.

1993-01-01

This report describes the instrumentation and evolution of the U.S. Geological Survey’s regional seismograph network in southern Alaska, provides phase and hypocenter data for seismic events from October 1971 through May 1989, reviews the location methods used, and discusses the completeness of the catalog and the accuracy of the computed hypocenters. Included are arrival time data for explosions detonated under the Trans-Alaska Crustal Transect (TACT) in 1984 and 1985.The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated a regional network of seismographs in southern Alaska from 1971 to the mid 1990s. The principal purpose of this network was to record seismic data to be used to precisely locate earthquakes in the seismic zones of southern Alaska, delineate seismically active faults, assess seismic risks, document potential premonitory earthquake phenomena, investigate current tectonic deformation, and study the structure and physical properties of the crust and upper mantle. A task fundamental to all of these goals was the routine cataloging of parameters for earthquakes located within and adjacent to the seismograph network.The initial network of 10 stations, 7 around Cook Inlet and 3 near Valdez, was installed in 1971. In subsequent summers additions or modifications to the network were made. By the fall of 1973, 26 stations extended from western Cook Inlet to eastern Prince William Sound, and 4 stations were located to the east between Cordova and Yakutat. A year later 20 additional stations were installed. Thirteen of these were placed along the eastern Gulf of Alaska with support from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Assessment Program to investigate the seismicity of the outer continental shelf, a region of interest for oil exploration. Since then the region covered by the network remained relatively fixed while efforts were made to make the stations more reliable through improved electronic

Imaging 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake and Its Aftershock Sequence Combining Multiple Calibrated Global Seismic Arrays

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LI, B.; Ghosh, A.

2016-12-01

The 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake provides a good opportunity to study the tectonics and earthquake hazards in the Himalayas, one of the most seismically active plate boundaries. Details of the seismicity patterns and associated structures in the Himalayas are poorly understood mainly due to limited instrumentation. Here, we apply a back-projection method to study the mainshock rupture and the following aftershock sequence using four large aperture global seismic arrays. All the arrays show eastward rupture propagation of about 130 km and reveal similar evolution of seismic energy radiation, with strong high-frequency energy burst about 50 km north of Kathmandu. Each single array, however, is typically limited by large azimuthal gap, low resolution, and artifacts due to unmodeled velocity structures. Therefore, we use a self-consistent empirical calibration method to combine four different arrays to image the Gorkha event. It greatly improves the resolution, can better track rupture and reveal details that cannot be resolved by any individual array. In addition, we also use the same arrays at teleseismic distances and apply a back-projection technique to detect and locate the aftershocks immediately following the Gorkha earthquake. We detect about 2.5 times the aftershocks recorded by the Advance National Seismic System comprehensive earthquake catalog during the 19 days following the mainshock. The aftershocks detected by the arrays show an east-west trend in general, with majority of the aftershocks located at the eastern part of the rupture patch and surrounding the rupture zone of the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock. Overall spatiotemporal aftershock pattern agrees well with global catalog, with our catalog showing more details relative to the standard global catalog. The improved aftershock catalog enables us to better study the aftershock dynamics, stress evolution in this region. Moreover, rapid and better imaging of aftershock distribution may aid rapid response

Foreshocks and aftershocks locations of the 2014 Pisagua, N. Chile earthquake: history of a megathrust earthquake nucleation

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Fuenzalida Velasco, Amaya; Rietbrock, Andreas; Tavera, Hernando; Ryder, Isabelle; Ruiz, Sergio; Thomas, Reece; De Angelis, Silvio; Bondoux, Francis

2015-04-01

The April 2014 Mw 8.1 Pisagua earthquake occurred in the Northern Chile seismic gap: a region of the South American subduction zone lying between Arica city and the Mejillones Peninsula. It is believed that this part of the subduction zone has not experienced a large earthquake since 1877. Thanks to the identification of this seismic gap, the north of Chile was well instrumented before the Pisagua earthquake, including the Integrated Plate boundary Observatory Chile (IPOC) network and the Chilean local network installed by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (CSN). These instruments were able to record the full foreshock and aftershock sequences, allowing a unique opportunity to study the nucleation process of large megathrust earthquakes. To improve azimuthal coverage of the Pisagua seismic sequence, after the earthquake, in collaboration with the Instituto Geofisico del Peru (IGP) we installed a temporary seismic network in south of Peru. The network comprised 12 short-period stations located in the coastal area between Moquegua and Tacna and they were operative from 1st May 2014. We also installed three stations on the slopes of the Ticsiani volcano to monitor any possible change in volcanic activity following the Pisagua earthquake. In this work we analysed the continuous seismic data recorded by CSN and IPOC networks from 1 March to 30 June to obtain the catalogue of the sequence, including foreshocks and aftershocks. Using an automatic algorithm based in STA/LTA we obtained the picks for P and S waves. Association in time and space defined the events and computed an initial location using Hypo71 and the 1D local velocity model. More than 11,000 events were identified with this method for the whole period, but we selected the best resolved events that include more than 7 observed arrivals with at least 2 S picks of them, to relocate these events using NonLinLoc software. For the main events of the sequence we carefully estimate event locations and we obtained

Identified EM Earthquake Precursors

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Jones, Kenneth, II; Saxton, Patrick

2014-05-01

Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After a number of custom rock experiments, two hypotheses were formed which could answer the EM wave model. The first hypothesis concerned a sufficient and continuous electron movement either by surface or penetrative flow, and the second regarded a novel approach to radio transmission. Electron flow along fracture surfaces was determined to be inadequate in creating strong EM fields, because rock has a very high electrical resistance making it a high quality insulator. Penetrative flow could not be corroborated as well, because it was discovered that rock was absorbing and confining electrons to a very thin skin depth. Radio wave transmission and detection worked with every single test administered. This hypothesis was reviewed for propagating, long-wave generation with sufficient amplitude, and the capability of penetrating solid rock. Additionally, fracture spaces, either air or ion-filled, can facilitate this concept from great depths and allow for surficial detection. A few propagating precursor signals have been detected in the field occurring with associated phases using custom-built loop antennae. Field testing was conducted in Southern California from 2006-2011, and outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013. The antennae have mobility and observations were noted for

GEODYNAMICS OF NAZCA RIDGE’S OBLIQUE SUBDUCTION AND MIGRATION - IMPLICATIONS FOR TSUNAMI GENERATION ALONG CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PERU: Earthquake and Tsunami of 23 June 2001

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George Pararas-Carayannis

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Peru is in a region of considerable geologic and seismic complexity. Thrust faulting along the boundary where the Nazca plate subducts beneath the South American continent has created three distinct seismic zones. The angle of subduction of the Nazca oceanic plate beneath the South American plate is not uniform along the entire segment of the Peru-Chile Trench. Furthermore, subduction is affected by buoyancy forces of the bounding oceanic ridges and fractures - such as the Mendana Fracture Zone (MFZ to the North and the Nazca Ridge to the South. This narrow zone is characterized by shallow earthquakes that can generate destructive tsunamis of varied intensities. The present study examines the significance of Nazca Ridge’s oblique subduction and migration to the seismicity of Central/Southern Peru and to tsunami generation. The large tsunamigenic earthquake of 23 June 2001 is presented as a case study. This event generated a destructive, local tsunami that struck Peru’s southern coasts with waves ranging from 3 to 4.6 meters (10-15 feet and inland inundation that ranged from 1 to 3 km. In order to understand the near and far-field tsunamigenic efficiency of events along Central/Southern Peru and the significance of Nazca Ridge’s oblique subduction, the present study examines further the geologic structure of the region and this quake’s moment tensor analysis, energy release, fault rupture and the spatial distribution of aftershocks. Tsunami source mechanism characteristics for this event are presented, as inferred from seismic intensities, energy releases, fault plane solutions and the use of empirical relationships. The study concludes that the segment of subduction and faulting paralleling the Peru-Chile Trench from about 150 to 180 South, as well as the obliquity of convergent tectonic plate collision in this region, may be the reason for shorter rupture lengths of major earthquakes and the generation of only local destructive tsunamis.

The USGS Earthquake Notification Service (ENS): Customizable notifications of earthquakes around the globe

Science.gov (United States)

Wald, Lisa A.; Wald, David J.; Schwarz, Stan; Presgrave, Bruce; Earle, Paul S.; Martinez, Eric; Oppenheimer, David

2008-01-01

At the beginning of 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) introduced a new automated Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) to take the place of the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) "Bigquake" system and the various other individual EHP e-mail list-servers for separate regions in the United States. These included northern California, southern California, and the central and eastern United States. ENS is a "one-stop shopping" system that allows Internet users to subscribe to flexible and customizable notifications for earthquakes anywhere in the world. The customization capability allows users to define the what (magnitude threshold), the when (day and night thresholds), and the where (specific regions) for their notifications. Customization is achieved by employing a per-user based request profile, allowing the notifications to be tailored for each individual's requirements. Such earthquake-parameter-specific custom delivery was not possible with simple e-mail list-servers. Now that event and user profiles are in a structured query language (SQL) database, additional flexibility is possible. At the time of this writing, ENS had more than 114,000 subscribers, with more than 200,000 separate user profiles. On a typical day, more than 188,000 messages get sent to a variety of widely distributed users for a wide range of earthquake locations and magnitudes. The purpose of this article is to describe how ENS works, highlight the features it offers, and summarize plans for future developments.

Earthquakes: Risk, Monitoring, Notification, and Research

Science.gov (United States)

2008-06-19

States are as much as 30% lower for certain types of ground motion, called long-period seismic waves, which affect taller , multistory buildings. Ground...jump between connected faults. Earthquakes that occur along the Sierra Madre Fault in southern California, for example, could trigger a series of

Effects of Regulation on Induced Seismicity in Southern Kansas

Science.gov (United States)

Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Dougherty, S. L.

2016-12-01

The appearance of seismicity concurrent with the expansion of oil and gas activities in southern Kansas since September 2012 suggests that industrial operations are inducing earthquakes there. Much of the seismicity can be related to high-rate injection wells within 5 km of the earthquakes. There is significant complexity to the situation, though. Some of the seismicity, including the 2014 M4.8 Milan earthquake, the largest earthquake to occur in the area, lies at least 10km from high-rate injection wells. Additionally, the presence of high-rate wells does not guarantee that there will be nearby seismicity. Many of the highest-rate injection wells are located to the southwest of our study area, where there is minimal seismicity. We have also seen changes in earthquake rates shortly following the March 2015 enactment of new limits on the rate of wastewater disposal in five areas in southern Kansas. Overall, the earthquake rate has decreased significantly since these rules went into place. In more detail, however, earthquake rates within the five areas decreased, but the rate outside the five zones increased. It is likely that fluid-pressure diffusion is responsible for the migration of seismicity outside the areas of reduced injection because there is little injection in the areas unaffected by the new injection rules. This increase is also a reminder that seismicity can persist long after the reduction or cessation of injection. In addition to the effect of the new injection rules, it is possible that the reduction in injection may be partially caused by economic factors that have resulted in a decrease in the production of oil and gas. We have yet to disentangle the effects of the new injection rules and the low prices of oil and gas on the induced seismicity in southern Kansas.

Dynamics of delayed triggering in multi-segmented foreshock sequence: Evidence from the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Arai, H.; Ando, R.; Aoki, Y.

2017-12-01

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence hit the SW Japan, from April 14th to 16th and its sequence includes two M6-class foreshocks and the main shock (Mw 7.0). Importantly, the detailed surface displacement caused solely by the two foreshocks could be captured by a SAR observation isolated from the mainshock deformation. The foreshocks ruptured the previously mapped Hinagu fault and their hypocentral locations and the aftershock distribution indicates the involvement of two different subparallel faults. Therefore we assumed that the 1st and the 2nd foreshocks respectively ruptured each of the subparallel faults (faults A and B). One of the interesting points of this earthquake is that the two major foreshocks had a temporal gap of 2.5 hours even though the fault A and B are quite close by each other. This suggests that the stress perturbation due to the 1st foreshock is not large enough to trigger the 2nd one right away but that it's large enough to bring about the following earthquake after a delay time.We aim to reproduce the foreshock sequence such as rupture jumping over the subparallel faults by using dynamic rupture simulations. We employed a spatiotemporal-boundary integral equation method accelerated by the Fast Domain Partitioning Method (Ando, 2016, GJI) since this method allows us to construct a complex fault geometry in 3D media. Our model has two faults and a free ground surface. We conducted rupture simulation with various sets of parameters to identify the optimal condition describing the observation.Our simulation results are roughly categorized into 3 cases with regard to the criticality for the rupture jumping. The case 1 (supercritical case) shows the fault A and B ruptured consecutively without any temporal gap. In the case 2 (nearly critical), the rupture on the fault B started with a temporal gap after the fault A finished rupturing, which is what we expected as a reproduction. In the case 3 (subcritical), only the fault A ruptured and its

Surface deformation associated with the November 23, 1977, Caucete, Argentina, earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Kadinsky-Cade, K.; Reilinger, R.; Isacks, B.

1985-01-01

The 1977 Caucete (San Juan) earthquake considered in the present paper occurred near the Sierra Pie de Palo in the Sierras Pampeanas tectonic province of western Argentina. In the study reported, coseismic surface deformation is combined with seismic observations (main shock and aftershocks, both teleseismic and local data) to place constraints on the geometry and slip of the main fault responsible for the 1977 earthquake. The implications of the 1977 event for long-term crustal shortening and earthquake recurrence rates in this region are also discussed. It is concluded that the 1977 Caucete earthquake was accompanied by more than 1 m of vertical uplift.

Sequencing at sea: challenges and experiences in Ion Torrent PGM sequencing during the 2013 Southern Line Islands Research Expedition

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Yan Wei Lim

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Genomics and metagenomics have revolutionized our understanding of marine microbial ecology and the importance of microbes in global geochemical cycles. However, the process of DNA sequencing has always been an abstract extension of the research expedition, completed once the samples were returned to the laboratory. During the 2013 Southern Line Islands Research Expedition, we started the first effort to bring next generation sequencing to some of the most remote locations on our planet. We successfully sequenced twenty six marine microbial genomes, and two marine microbial metagenomes using the Ion Torrent PGM platform on the Merchant Yacht Hanse Explorer. Onboard sequence assembly, annotation, and analysis enabled us to investigate the role of the microbes in the coral reef ecology of these islands and atolls. This analysis identified phosphonate as an important phosphorous source for microbes growing in the Line Islands and reinforced the importance of L-serine in marine microbial ecosystems. Sequencing in the field allowed us to propose hypotheses and conduct experiments and further sampling based on the sequences generated. By eliminating the delay between sampling and sequencing, we enhanced the productivity of the research expedition. By overcoming the hurdles associated with sequencing on a boat in the middle of the Pacific Ocean we proved the flexibility of the sequencing, annotation, and analysis pipelines.

Short- and Long-Term Earthquake Forecasts Based on Statistical Models

Science.gov (United States)

Console, Rodolfo; Taroni, Matteo; Murru, Maura; Falcone, Giuseppe; Marzocchi, Warner

2017-04-01

The epidemic-type aftershock sequences (ETAS) models have been experimentally used to forecast the space-time earthquake occurrence rate during the sequence that followed the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and for the 2012 Emilia earthquake sequence. These forecasts represented the two first pioneering attempts to check the feasibility of providing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) in Italy. After the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake the Italian Department of Civil Protection nominated an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF) for the development of the first official OEF in Italy that was implemented for testing purposes by the newly established "Centro di Pericolosità Sismica" (CPS, the seismic Hazard Center) at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV). According to the ICEF guidelines, the system is open, transparent, reproducible and testable. The scientific information delivered by OEF-Italy is shaped in different formats according to the interested stakeholders, such as scientists, national and regional authorities, and the general public. The communication to people is certainly the most challenging issue, and careful pilot tests are necessary to check the effectiveness of the communication strategy, before opening the information to the public. With regard to long-term time-dependent earthquake forecast, the application of a newly developed simulation algorithm to Calabria region provided typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. These features include long-term pseudo-periodicity and clustering of strong earthquakes, and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the moderate and higher magnitude range.

Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

Science.gov (United States)

Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

2018-02-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and

Spatial-temporal variation of low-frequency earthquake bursts near Parkfield, California

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chunquan; Guyer, Robert; Shelly, David R.; Trugman, D.; Frank, William; Gomberg, Joan S.; Johnson, P.

2015-01-01

Tectonic tremor (TT) and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) have been found in the deeper crust of various tectonic environments globally in the last decade. The spatial-temporal behaviour of LFEs provides insight into deep fault zone processes. In this study, we examine recurrence times from a 12-yr catalogue of 88 LFE families with ∼730 000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault (SAF) in central California. We apply an automatic burst detection algorithm to the LFE recurrence times to identify the clustering behaviour of LFEs (LFE bursts) in each family. We find that the burst behaviours in the northern and southern LFE groups differ. Generally, the northern group has longer burst duration but fewer LFEs per burst, while the southern group has shorter burst duration but more LFEs per burst. The southern group LFE bursts are generally more correlated than the northern group, suggesting more coherent deep fault slip and relatively simpler deep fault structure beneath the locked section of SAF. We also found that the 2004 Parkfield earthquake clearly increased the number of LFEs per burst and average burst duration for both the northern and the southern groups, with a relatively larger effect on the northern group. This could be due to the weakness of northern part of the fault, or the northwesterly rupture direction of the Parkfield earthquake.

Investigating on the Differences between Triggered and Background Seismicity in Italy and Southern California.

Science.gov (United States)

Stallone, A.; Marzocchi, W.

2017-12-01

Earthquake occurrence may be approximated by a multidimensional Poisson clustering process, where each point of the Poisson process is replaced by a cluster of points, the latter corresponding to the well-known aftershock sequence (triggered events). Earthquake clusters and their parents are assumed to occur according to a Poisson process at a constant temporal rate proportional to the tectonic strain rate, while events within a cluster are modeled as generations of dependent events reproduced by a branching process. Although the occurrence of such space-time clusters is a general feature in different tectonic settings, seismic sequences seem to have marked differences from region to region: one example, among many others, is that seismic sequences of moderate magnitude in Italian Apennines seem to last longer than similar seismic sequences in California. In this work we investigate on the existence of possible differences in the earthquake clustering process in these two areas. At first, we separate the triggered and background components of seismicity in the Italian and Southern California seismic catalog. Then we study the space-time domain of the triggered earthquakes with the aim to identify possible variations in the triggering properties across the two regions. In the second part of the work we focus our attention on the characteristics of the background seismicity in both seismic catalogs. The assumption of time stationarity of the background seismicity (which includes both cluster parents and isolated events) is still under debate. Some authors suggest that the independent component of seismicity could undergo transient perturbations at various time scales due to different physical mechanisms, such as, for example, viscoelastic relaxation, presence of fluids, non-stationary plate motion, etc, whose impact may depend on the tectonic setting. Here we test if the background seismicity in the two regions can be satisfactorily described by the time

Megathrust Earthquake Swarms Contemporaneous to Slow Slip and Non-Volcanic Tremor in Southern Mexico, Detected and Analyzed through a Template Matching Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Holtkamp, S.; Brudzinski, M. R.; Cabral-Cano, E.; Arciniega-Ceballos, A.

2012-12-01

An outstanding question in geophysics is the degree to which the newly discovered types of slow fault slip are related to their destructive cousin - the earthquake. Here, we utilize a local network along the Oaxacan segment of the Middle American subduction zone to investigate the potential relationship between slow slip, non-volcanic tremor (NVT), and earthquakes along the subduction megathrust. We have developed a multi-station "template matching" waveform cross correlation technique which is able to detect and locate events several orders of magnitude smaller than would be possible using more traditional techniques. Also, our template matching procedure is capable of consistently locate events which occur during periods of increased background activity (e.g., during productive NVT, loud cultural noise, or after larger earthquakes) because the multi-station detector is finely tuned to events with similar hypocentral location and focal mechanism. The local network in the Oaxaca region allows us to focus on documented megathrust earthquake swarms, which we focus on because slow slip is hypothesized to be the cause for earthquake swarms in some tectonic environments. We identify a productive earthquake swarm in July 2006 (~600 similar earthquakes detected), which occurred during a week-long episode of productive tremor and slow slip. Families of events in this sequence were also active during larger and longer slow slip events, which provides a potential link between slow slip in the transition zone and earthquakes at the downdip end of the seismogenic portion of the megathrust. Because template matching techniques only detect similar signals, detected waveforms can be stacked together to produce higher signal to noise ratios or cross correlated against each other to produce precise relative phase arrival times. We are using the refined signals to look for evidence of expansion or propagation of hypocenters during these earthquake swarms, which could be used as a

The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes: Cascading Geological Hazards and Compounding Risks

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Katsuichiro Goda

2016-08-01

Full Text Available A sequence of two strike-slip earthquakes occurred on 14 and 16 April 2016 in the intraplate region of Kyushu Island, Japan, apart from subduction zones, and caused significant damage and disruption to the Kumamoto region. The analyses of regional seismic catalog and available strong motion recordings reveal striking characteristics of the events, such as migrating seismicity, earthquake surface rupture, and major foreshock-mainshock earthquake sequences. To gain valuable lessons from the events, a UK Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT was dispatched to Kumamoto, and earthquake damage surveys were conducted to relate observed earthquake characteristics to building and infrastructure damage caused by the earthquakes. The lessons learnt from the reconnaissance mission have important implications on current seismic design practice regarding the required seismic resistance of structures under multiple shocks and the seismic design of infrastructure subject to large ground deformation. The observations also highlight the consequences of cascading geological hazards on community resilience. To share the gathered damage data widely, geo-tagged photos are organized using Google Earth and the kmz file is made publicly available.

Lessons learned from the 1994 Northridge Earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eli, M.W.; Sommer, S.C.

1995-01-01

Southern California has a history of major earthquakes and also has one of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States. The 1994 Northridge Earthquake challenged the industrial facilities and lifetime infrastructure in the northern Los Angeles (LA) area. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) sent a team of engineers to conduct an earthquake damage investigation in the Northridge area, on a project funded jointly by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the United States Department of Energy (USDOE). Many of the structures, systems, and components (SSCs) and lifelines that suffered damage are similar to those found in nuclear power plants and in USDOE facilities. Lessons learned from these experiences can have some applicability at commercial nuclear power plants

Engineering geological aspect of Gorkha Earthquake 2015, Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Adhikari, Basanta Raj; Andermann, Christoff; Cook, Kristen

2016-04-01

Strong shaking by earthquake causes massif landsliding with severe effects on infrastructure and human lives. The distribution of landslides and other hazards are depending on the combination of earthquake and local characteristics which influence the dynamic response of hillslopes. The Himalayas are one of the most active mountain belts with several kilometers of relief and is very prone to catastrophic mass failure. Strong and shallow earthquakes are very common and cause wide spread collapse of hillslopes, increasing the background landslide rate by several magnitude. The Himalaya is facing many small and large earthquakes in the past i.e. earthquakes i.e. Bihar-Nepal earthquake 1934 (Ms 8.2); Large Kangra earthquake of 1905 (Ms 7.8); Gorkha earthquake 2015 (Mw 7.8). The Mw 7.9 Gorkha earthquake has occurred on and around the main Himalayan Thrust with a hypocentral depth of 15 km (GEER 2015) followed by Mw 7.3 aftershock in Kodari causing 8700+ deaths and leaving hundreds of thousands of homeless. Most of the 3000 aftershocks located by National Seismological Center (NSC) within the first 45 days following the Gorkha Earthquake are concentrated in a narrow 40 km-wide band at midcrustal to shallow depth along the strike of the southern slope of the high Himalaya (Adhikari et al. 2015) and the ground shaking was substantially lower in the short-period range than would be expected for and earthquake of this magnitude (Moss et al. 2015). The effect of this earthquake is very unique in affected areas by showing topographic effect, liquefaction and land subsidence. More than 5000 landslides were triggered by this earthquake (Earthquake without Frontiers, 2015). Most of the landslides are shallow and occurred in weathered bedrock and appear to have mobilized primarily as raveling failures, rock slides and rock falls. Majority of landslides are limited to a zone which runs east-west, approximately parallel the lesser and higher Himalaya. There are numerous cracks in

Parametric time series analysis of geoelectrical signals: an application to earthquake forecasting in Southern Italy

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V. Tramutoli

1996-06-01

Full Text Available An autoregressive model was selected to describe geoelectrical time series. An objective technique was subsequently applied to analyze and discriminate values above (below an a priorifixed threshold possibly related to seismic events. A complete check of the model and the main guidelines to estimate the occurrence probability of extreme events are reported. A first application of the proposed technique is discussed through the analysis of the experimental data recorded by an automatic station located in Tito, a small town on the Apennine chain in Southern Italy. This region was hit by the November 1980 Irpinia-Basilicata earthquake and it is one of most active areas of the Mediterranean region. After a preliminary filtering procedure to reduce the influence of external parameters (i.e. the meteo-climatic effects, it was demonstrated that the geoelectrical residual time series are well described by means of a second order autoregressive model. Our findings outline a statistical methodology to evaluate the efficiency of electrical seismic precursors.

Investigating correlations between earthquakes and extreme eventsin self-potential data recorded in a seismicarea of Southestern Appennine Chain (Italy

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V. Lapenna

2004-06-01

Full Text Available The Normalized Wavelet Cross-Correlation Function (NWCCF was used to study correlations between the series of extreme events in self-potential data and earthquakes, both modelled as stochastic point processes. This method gives objective results, robust to the presence of nonstationarities that often affect observational time series. Furthermore, the NWCCF identifies the timescales involved in the cross-correlated behaviour between two point processes. In particular, we analyzed the cross-correlation between the sequence of extreme events in selfpotential data measured at the monitoring station Tito, located in a seismic area of Southern Italy, and the series of earthquakes which occurred in the same area during 2001. To evaluate the influence of rain on the dynamics of geoelectrical variations, we applied the same approach between the selected extreme values and the rain data. We find that the anomalous geoelectrical values seem to cross-correlate with the rain at short and intermediate timescales (t< 500 h, while they significantly cross-correlate only with earthquakes (M = 2.5 at long timescales (t> 500 h.

Sedimentation and lithostratigraphy of the Vuosaari multiple till sequence in Helsinki, southern Finland

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Hirvas, H.

1995-12-01

Full Text Available A multiple till sequence interbedded with sorted sediments has been investigated at Vuosaari, Helsinki, Finland. The investigation was carried out using standard sedimentological procedures combined with microfossil analysis in order to determine the genesis of the exposed sediments. This evidence is used to correlate lithostratigraphically the sequence with adjacent multiple till sequences in other parts of southern Finland (south of the Salpausselkä zone. It is concluded that all three till beds at Vuosaari are of basal origin that were laid down by separate ice flow phases. In contrast two rhythmite beds between the tills are thought to have been deposited in open water. The sediments at Vuosaari may have been laid down during the Weichselian glaciation although it is also possible that the lowermost till bed represents Saalian till.

Dynamics of Lithospheric Extension and Residual Topography in Southern Tibet

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, B.; Shahnas, M. H.; Pysklywec, R.; Sengul Uluocak, E.

2017-12-01

Although the north-south (N-S) convergence between India and Eurasia is ongoing, a number of north-south trending rifts (e.g., Tangra Yum Co Rift, Yadong-Gulu Rift and Cona Rift) and normal faulting are observed at the surface of southern Tibet, suggesting an east-west (E-W) extension tectonic regime. The earthquake focal mechanisms also show that deformation of southern Tibet is dominated by E-W extension across these N-S trending rifts. Because the structure of the lithosphere and underlying mantle is poorly understood, the origin of the east-west extension of southern Tibet is still under debate. Gravitational collapse, oblique convergence, and mantle upwelling are among possible responsible mechanisms. We employ a 3D-spherical control volume model of the present-day mantle flow to understand the relationship between topographic features (e.g., rifts and the west-east extension), intermediate-depth earthquakes, and tectonic stresses induced by mantle flow beneath the region. The thermal structure of the mantle and crust is obtained from P and S-wave seismic inversions and heat flow data. Power-law creep with viscous-plastic rheology, describing the behavior of the lithosphere and mantle material is employed. We determine the models which can best reconcile the observed features of southern Tibet including surface heat flow, residual topography with uplift and subsidence, reported GPS rates of the vertical movements, and the earthquake events. The 3D geodynamic modeling of the contemporary mantle flow-lithospheric response quantifies the relative importance of the various proposed mechanism responsible for the E-W extension and deep earthquakes in southern Tibet. The results also have further implications for the magmatic activities and crustal rheology of the region.

Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Baseline County-Level Migration Characteristics and Trends 1995-2000 and 2001-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.

2008-01-01

The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards. In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report uses historical, estimated, and projected population data from several Federal and State data sources to estimate baseline characteristics and trends of the region's population migration (that is, changes in a person's place of residence over time). The analysis characterizes migration by various demographic, economic, family, and household variables for the period 1995-2000. It also uses existing estimates (beginning in 2001) of the three components of population change - births, deaths, and migration - to extrapolate near-term projections of county-level migration trends through 2010. The 2010 date was chosen to provide baseline projections corresponding to a two-year recovery period following the November 2008 date that was selected for the occurrence of the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake. The baseline characteristics and projections shall assist with evaluating the effects of inflow and outflow migration trends for alternative futures in which the simulated M7.8 earthquake either does or does not occur and the impact of the event on housing and jobs, as well as community composition and regional economy changes based on dispersion of intellectual, physical, economic, and cultural capital.

The Manchester earthquake swarm of October 2002

Science.gov (United States)

Baptie, B.; Ottemoeller, L.

2003-04-01

An earthquake sequence started in the Greater Manchester area of the United Kingdom on October 19, 2002. This has continued to the time of writing and has consisted of more than 100 discrete earthquakes. Three temporary seismograph stations were installed to supplement existing permanent stations and to better understand the relationship between the seismicity and local geology. Due to the urban location, these were experienced by a large number of people. The largest event on October 21 had a magnitude ML 3.9. The activity appears to be an earthquake swarm, since there is no clear distinction between a main shock and aftershocks. However, most of the energy during the sequence was actually released in two earthquakes separated by a few seconds in time, on October 21 at 11:42. Other examples of swarm activity in the UK include Comrie (1788-1801, 1839-46), Glenalmond (1970-72), Doune (1997) and Blackford (1997-98, 2000-01) in central Scotland, Constantine (1981, 1986, 1992-4) in Cornwall, and Johnstonbridge (mid1980s) and Dumfries (1991,1999). The clustering of these events in time and space does suggest that there is a causal relationship between the events of the sequence. Joint hypocenter determination was used to simultaneously locate the swarm earthquakes, determine station corrections and improve the relative locations. It seems likely that all events in the sequence originate from a relatively small source volume. This is supported by the similarities in source mechanism and waveform signals between the various events. Focal depths were found to be very shallow and of the order of about 2-3 km. Source mechanisms determined for the largest of the events show strike-slip solutions along either northeast-southwest or northwest-southeast striking fault planes. The surface expression of faults in the epicentral area is generally northwest-southeast, suggesting that this is the more likely fault plane.

Sedimentary Signatures of Submarine Earthquakes: Deciphering the Extent of Sediment Remobilization from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami and 2010 Haiti Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

McHugh, C. M.; Seeber, L.; Moernaut, J.; Strasser, M.; Kanamatsu, T.; Ikehara, K.; Bopp, R.; Mustaque, S.; Usami, K.; Schwestermann, T.; Kioka, A.; Moore, L. M.

2017-12-01

The 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Mw9.3 and the 2011 Tohoku (Japan) Mw9.0 earthquakes and tsunamis were huge geological events with major societal consequences. Both were along subduction boundaries and ruptured portions of these boundaries that had been deemed incapable of such events. Submarine strike-slip earthquakes, such as the 2010 Mw7.0 in Haiti, are smaller but may be closer to population centers and can be similarly catastrophic. Both classes of earthquakes remobilize sediment and leave distinct signatures in the geologic record by a wide range of processes that depends on both environment and earthquake characteristics. Understanding them has the potential of greatly expanding the record of past earthquakes, which is critical for geohazard analysis. Recent events offer precious ground truth about the earthquakes and short-lived radioisotopes offer invaluable tools to identify sediments they remobilized. In the 2011 Mw9 Japan earthquake they document the spatial extent of remobilized sediment from water depths of 626m in the forearc slope to trench depths of 8000m. Subbottom profiles, multibeam bathymetry and 40 piston cores collected by the R/V Natsushima and R/V Sonne expeditions to the Japan Trench document multiple turbidites and high-density flows. Core tops enriched in xs210Pb,137Cs and 134Cs reveal sediment deposited by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. The thickest deposits (2m) were documented on a mid-slope terrace and trench (4000-8000m). Sediment was deposited on some terraces (600-3000m), but shed from the steep forearc slope (3000-4000m). The 2010 Haiti mainshock ruptured along the southern flank of Canal du Sud and triggered multiple nearshore sediment failures, generated turbidity currents and stirred fine sediment into suspension throughout this basin. A tsunami was modeled to stem from both sediment failures and tectonics. Remobilized sediment was tracked with short-lived radioisotopes from the nearshore, slope, in fault basins including the

Active faults and historical earthquakes in the Messina Straits area (Ionian Sea

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A. Polonia

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The Calabrian Arc (CA subduction complex is located at the toe of the Eurasian Plate in the Ionian Sea, where sediments resting on the lower plate have been scraped off and piled up in the accretionary wedge due to the African/Eurasian plate convergence and back arc extension. The CA has been struck repeatedly by destructive historical earthquakes, but knowledge of active faults and source parameters is relatively poor, particularly for seismogenic structures extending offshore. We analysed the fine structure of major tectonic features likely to have been sources of past earthquakes: (i the NNW–SSE trending Malta STEP (Slab Transfer Edge Propagator fault system, representing a lateral tear of the subduction system; (ii the out-of-sequence thrusts (splay faults at the rear of the salt-bearing Messinian accretionary wedge; and (iii the Messina Straits fault system, part of the wide deformation zone separating the western and eastern lobes of the accretionary wedge.

Our findings have implications for seismic hazard in southern Italy, as we compile an inventory of first order active faults that may have produced past seismic events such as the 1908, 1693 and 1169 earthquakes. These faults are likely to be source regions for future large magnitude events as they are long, deep and bound sectors of the margin characterized by different deformation and coupling rates on the plate interface.

The 2013 Crete (Hellenic Arc) Earthquake Sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Karakostas, V. G.; Papadimitriou, E. E.; Vallianatos, F.

2014-12-01

The western Hellenic Arc is a well known place of active interplate deformation, where the convergence motion vector is perpendicular to the subduction front. On 12 October 2013 this area was hit by a strong (Mw=6.7) earthquake, occurred on a thrust fault onto the coupled part of the overriding and descending plates, with the compression axis being oriented in the direction of plate convergence. This was the first strong (M>6.0) event to have occurred onto this segment of the descending slab, which has accommodated the largest (M8.3) known earthquake in the Mediterranean area, and to be recorded by the Hellenic Unified Seismological Network (HUSN) that has been considerably improved in the last five years. The first 2-days relocated seismicity shows activation of the upper part of the descending slab, downdip of the plate interface and forming a relatively narrow aftershock area on map view. The less densely visited by aftershocks area, where the main shock is also encompassed, is considered as the high-slip area along the downdip portion of the subducting plane. Dense concentration of the intraslab aftershocks are probably due to the increase of static stress generated by the main shock. A spectacular feature of the aftershock activity concerns the lateral extension of the slipped area, which appears very sharply defined. This provides evidence on localized coupling and aseismically creeping areas, explaining the low coupling ratio in the Hellenic Arc, as it derives from comparison between relative plate motion and seismic energy release. Elucidating the issue of how far the associated large-slip zone might be extended along the plate interface during the main rupture is crucial in assessing future earthquake hazards from subduction events in the study area. This research has been co-funded by the European Union (European Social Fund) and Greek national resources under the framework of the "THALES Program: SEISMO FEAR HELLARC" project.

Sun, Moon and Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Kolvankar, V. G.

2013-12-01

During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas [typically 1000km X1000km] of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun's position in terms of universal time [GMT] shows links to the sum of EMD [longitude of earthquake location - longitude of Moon's foot print on earth] and SEM [Sun-Earth-Moon angle]. This paper provides the details of this relationship after studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that over 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun's position [GMT] and [EMD+SEM]. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the factor [EMD+SEM] changes through 360 degree, and plotting these two variables for earthquakes from different small regions reveals a simple 45 degree straight-line relationship between them. This relationship was tested for all earthquakes and earthquake sequences for magnitude 2.0 and above. This study conclusively proves how Sun and the Moon govern all earthquakes. Fig. 12 [A+B]. The left-hand figure provides a 24-hour plot for forty consecutive days including the main event (00:58:23 on 26.12.2004, Lat.+3.30, Long+95.980, Mb 9.0, EQ count 376). The right-hand figure provides an earthquake plot for (EMD+SEM) vs GMT timings for the same data. All the 376 events including the main event faithfully follow the straight-line curve.

Possibility of the real-time dynamic strain field monitoring deduced from GNSS data: case study of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Ohta, Y.; Ohzono, M.; Takahashi, H.; Kawamoto, S.; Hino, R.

2017-12-01

A large and destructive earthquake (Mjma 7.3) occurred on April 15, 2016 in Kumamoto region, southwestern Japan. This earthquake was accompanied approximately 32 s later by an M 6 earthquake in central Oita region, which hypocenter located 80 km northeast from the hypocenter of the mainshock of the Kumamoto earthquake. This triggered earthquake also had the many aftershocks in and around the Oita region. It is important to understand how to occur such chain-reacted earthquake sequences. We used the 1Hz dual-frequency phase and range data from GEONET in Kyushu island. The data were processed using GIPSY-OASIS (version 6.4). We adopoted kinematic PPP strategy for the coordinate estimation. The reference GPS satellite orbit and 5 s clock information were obtained using the CODE product. We also applied simple sidereal filter technique for the estimated time series. Based on the obtained 1Hz GNSS time series, we estimated the areal strain and principle strain field using the method of the Shen et al. (1996). For the assessment of the dynamic strain, firstly we calculated the averaged absolute value of areal strain field between 60-85s after the origin time of the mainshock of the Kumamoto earthquake which was used as the "reference" static strain field. Secondly, we estimated the absolute value of areal strain in each time step. Finally, we calculated the strain ratio in each time step relative to the "reference". Based on this procedure, we can extract the spatial and temporal characteristic of the dynamic strain in each time step. Extracted strain ratio clearly shows the spatial and temporal dynamic strain characteristic. When an attention is paid to a region of triggered Oita earthquake, the timing of maximum dynamic strain ratio in the epicenter just corresponds to the origin time of the triggered event. It strongly suggested that the large dynamic strain may trigger the Oita event. The epicenter of the triggered earthquake located within the geothermal region. In

Recovering from the ShakeOut earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Wein, Anne; Johnson, Laurie; Bernknopf, Richard

2011-01-01

Recovery from an earthquake like the M7.8 ShakeOut Scenario will be a major endeavor taking many years to complete. Hundreds of Southern California municipalities will be affected; most lack recovery plans or previous disaster experience. To support recovery planning this paper 1) extends the regional ShakeOut Scenario analysis into the recovery period using a recovery model, 2) localizes analyses to identify longer-term impacts and issues in two communities, and 3) considers the regional context of local recovery.Key community insights about preparing for post-disaster recovery include the need to: geographically diversify city procurement; set earthquake mitigation priorities for critical infrastructure (e.g., airport), plan to replace mobile homes with earthquake safety measures, consider post-earthquake redevelopment opportunities ahead of time, and develop post-disaster recovery management and governance structures. This work also showed that communities with minor damages are still sensitive to regional infrastructure damages and their potential long-term impacts on community recovery. This highlights the importance of community and infrastructure resilience strategies as well.

Historical reconstruction of oil and gas spills during moderate and strong earthquakes and related geochemical surveys in Southern Apennines

Science.gov (United States)

Sciarra, Alessandra; Cantucci, Barbara; Ferrari, Graziano; Pizzino, Luca; Quattrocchi, Fedora

2016-04-01

The aim of this study is to contribute to the assessment of natural hazards in a seismically active area of southern Italy through the joint analysis of historical sources and fluid geochemistry. In particular, our studies have been focalized in the Val d'Agri basin, in the Apennines extensional belt, since it hosts the largest oilfield in onshore Europe and normal-fault systems with high seismogenic potential (up to M7). The work was organized into three main themes: 1) literature search aimed at identifying fluid emissions during previous moderate-strong earthquakes; 2) consultation of local and national archives to identify historic local place names correlated to natural fluids emissions; 3) geochemical sampling of groundwater and gas issuing at surface, identified on the basis of the bibliographic sources. A reasoned reading of written documents and available historical data was performed. Moreover, we reworked information reported in historical catalogues, referred to liquid and gas hydrocarbon leakages occurred during seismic events of the past (in a range of magnitude from 5 to 7) in the Southern Apennines (with a particular focus on the Val d'Agri). Special attention was given to the phenomena of geochemical emissions related to major historical earthquakes that took place in the area, most notably that of 16 December 1857 (M = 7). A careful analysis of the Robert Mallet's report, a complete work aimed at describing the social impact and the effects on the environment produced by this earthquake through illustrated maps and diagrams, included several hundred monoscopic and stereoscopic photographs, was done. From archival sources (at national and/or local administrations), "sensitive" sites to the onset of leakage of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons in the past were identified. A soil-gas survey (22 gas concentrations and flux measurements) and 35 groundwater samplings were carried out in specific sites recognized through the above studies. From a

Dating the past 7000 years of major earthquakes on the Alpine Fault, New Zealand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, KJ.; Biasi, G.

2009-01-01

The Alpine Fault, New Zealand, is a major plate boundary fault that accommodates two thirds of the motion between the Australian and Pacific plates. The Hokuri Stream locality at the southern end of the Alpine Fault has the potential to contain a long record of earthquakes. The field component of this study involved the description, measurement and sampling of multiple river bank outcrops of the Hokuri sedimentary sequence. Sampling was undertaken by two approaches: discrete sediment sampling and continuous push-core sampling. Radiocarbon samples were processed at the Rafter Radiocarbon Laboratory, New Zealand. 123 samples were dated and the most commonly dated organic fractions were individual leaves, reeds, and seeds. 15 refs., 6 figs.

Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas fault.

Science.gov (United States)

Shelly, David R

2010-06-11

Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between approximately 3 and approximately 6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.

Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas Fault

Science.gov (United States)

Shelly, David R.

2010-01-01

Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between ~3 and ~6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.

Centrality in earthquake multiplex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Lotfi, Nastaran; Darooneh, Amir Hossein; Rodrigues, Francisco A.

2018-06-01

Seismic time series has been mapped as a complex network, where a geographical region is divided into square cells that represent the nodes and connections are defined according to the sequence of earthquakes. In this paper, we map a seismic time series to a temporal network, described by a multiplex network, and characterize the evolution of the network structure in terms of the eigenvector centrality measure. We generalize previous works that considered the single layer representation of earthquake networks. Our results suggest that the multiplex representation captures better earthquake activity than methods based on single layer networks. We also verify that the regions with highest seismological activities in Iran and California can be identified from the network centrality analysis. The temporal modeling of seismic data provided here may open new possibilities for a better comprehension of the physics of earthquakes.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Foreshock-Mainshock-Aftershock Sequence of the 6 July 2017 M5.8 Lincoln, Montana Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

McMahon, N. D.; Stickney, M.; Aster, R. C.; Yeck, W.; Martens, H. R.; Benz, H.

2017-12-01

On 6 July 2017, a Mw 5.8 earthquake occurred 11 km southeast of Lincoln, Montana. The event was widely-felt from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada (750 km north), Seattle, Washington (800 km west), the Idaho/Utah and Idaho/Nevada borders (550 km south), and Rapid City, South Dakota (750 km east). This is the largest earthquake to occur in the state since the 1959 M 7.3 Hebgen Lake event 250 km to the southeast. In the three weeks following the 6 July 2017 Mw 5.8 main shock, the U.S. Geological Survey and Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology located more than 300 aftershocks. Preliminary observations show most of these aftershocks form a short NNE zone that suggests that the main shock may have slipped on a NNE left-lateral fault. A smaller number of aftershocks extend along a longer WNW-trending zone. These faults are part of the Lewis and Clark line, a prominent zone of Middle Proterozoic to Holocene age strike-slip, dip slip, and oblique slip faulting trending 400 km east-southeast from northern Idaho to east of Helena, Montana, and terminating southeast of this earthquake. We use identified aftershock waveforms as templates to examine the data from 1 June 2017 through 27 July 2017 with cross-correlation techniques on nearby permanent and temporary seismic stations deployed shortly after the mainshock to identify foreshocks and additional small aftershocks. Locating these events allows us to study subsurface geology, map fault structures, and provide insight on the spatial and temporal evolution of the earthquake sequence, which may continue to produce aftershocks for years. Other notable earthquakes in the region include a damaging M 6.6 earthquake 100 km to the south in June 1925, M 6.2 and M 6.0 earthquakes near Helena, Montana in October 1935 that caused significant damage and four fatalities, and a M 5.6 earthquake 170 km to the south in July 2005 that caused minor damage in Dillon and the surrounding region. We hope this work not only allows us to map the involved

Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes: large earthquakes

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B. H. Lavenda

2000-06-01

Full Text Available A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershock sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Fréchet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions shows that self-similar power laws are transformed into nonscaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Fréchet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same Catalogue of Chinese Earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Fréchet distribution. Earthquaketemperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

Magnitudes and Moment-Duration Scaling of Low-Frequency Earthquakes Beneath Southern Vancouver Island

Science.gov (United States)

Bostock, M. G.; Thomas, A.; Rubin, A. M.; Savard, G.; Chuang, L. Y.

2015-12-01

We employ 130 low-frequency-earthquake (LFE) templates representing tremor sources on the plate boundary below southern Vancouver Island to examine LFE magnitudes. Each template is assembled from 100's to 1000's of individual LFEs, representing over 300,000 independent detections from major episodic-tremor-and- slip (ETS) events between 2003 and 2013. Template displacement waveforms for direct P- and S-waves at near epicentral distances are remarkably simple at many stations, approaching the zero-phase, single pulse expected for a point dislocation source in a homogeneous medium. High spatio-temporal precision of template match-filtered detections facilitates precise alignment of individual LFE detections and analysis of waveforms. Upon correction for 1-D geometrical spreading, attenuation, free-surface magnification and radiation pattern, we solve a large, sparse linear system for 3-D path corrections and LFE magnitudes for all detections corresponding to a single ETS template. The spatio-temporal distribution of magnitudes indicates that typically half the total moment release occurs within the first 12-24 hours of LFE activity during an ETS episode when tidal sensitity is low. The remainder is released in bursts over several days, particularly as spatially extensive RTRs, during which tidal sensitivity is high. RTR's are characterized by large magnitude LFEs, and are most strongly expressed in the updip portions of the ETS transition zone and less organized at downdip levels. LFE magnitude-frequency relations are better described by power-law than exponential distributions although they exhibit very high b-values ≥ 6. We examine LFE moment-duration scaling by generating templates using detections for limiting magnitude ranges MW<1.5, MW≥ 2.0. LFE duration displays a weaker dependence upon moment than expected for self-similarity, suggesting that LFE asperities are limited in dimension and that moment variation is dominated by slip. This behaviour implies

Geophysical methods for identification of active faults between the Sannio-Matese and Irpinia areas of the Southern Apennines.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaudiosi, Germana; Nappi, Rosa; Alessio, Giuliana; Cella, Federico; Fedi, Maurizio; Florio, Giovanni

2014-05-01

The Southern Apennines is one of the Italian most active areas from a geodynamic point of view since it is characterized by occurrence of intense and widely spread seismic activity. Most seismicity of the area is concentrated along the chain, affecting mainly the Irpinia and Sannio-Matese areas. The seismogenetic sources responsible for the destructive events of 1456, 1688, 1694, 1702, 1732, 1805, 1930, 1962 and 1980 (Io = X-XI MCS) occurred mostly on NW-SE faults, and the relative hypocenters are concentrated within the upper 20 km of the crust. Structural observations on the Pleistocene faults suggest normal to sinistral movements for the NW-SE trending faults and normal to dextral for the NE-SW trending structures. The available focal mechanisms of the largest events show normal solutions consistent with NE-SW extension of the chain. After the 1980 Irpinia large earthquake, the release of seismic energy in the Southern Apennines has been characterized by occurrence of moderate energy sequences of main shock-aftershocks type and swarm-type activity with low magnitude sequences. Low-magnitude (Md<5) historical and recent earthquakes, generally clustered in swarms, have commonly occurred along the NE-SW faults. This paper deals with integrated analysis of geological and geophysical data in GIS environment to identify surface, buried and hidden active faults and to characterize their geometry. In particular we have analyzed structural data, earthquake space distribution and gravimetric data. The main results of the combined analysis indicate good correlation between seismicity and Multiscale Derivative Analysis (MDA) lineaments from gravity data. Furthermore 2D seismic hypocentral locations together with high-resolution analysis of gravity anomalies have been correlated to estimate the fault systems parameters (strike, dip direction and dip angle) through the application of the DEXP method (Depth from Extreme Points).

The 2012 Strike-slip Earthquake Sequence in Black Sea and its Link to the Caucasus Collision Zone

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Tseng, T. L.; Hsu, C. H.; Legendre, C. P.; Jian, P. R.; Huang, B. S.; Karakhanian, A.; Chen, C. W.

2016-12-01

The Black Sea formed as a back-arc basin in Late Cretaceous to Paleogene with lots of extensional features. However, the Black Sea is now tectonically stable and absent of notable earthquakes except for the coastal region. In this study we invert regional waveforms of a new seismic array to constrain the focal mechanisms and depths of the 2012/12/23 earthquake sequence occurred in northeastern Black Sea basin that can provide unique estimates on the stress field in the region. The results show that the focal mechanisms for the main shock and 5 larger aftershocks are all strike-slip faulting and resembling with each other. The main rupture fall along the vertical dipping, NW-SE trending sinistral fault indicated by the lineation of most aftershocks. The fault strike and aftershock distribution are both consistent with the Shatsky Ridge, which is continental in nature but large normal faults was created by previous subsidence. The occurrence of 2012 earthquakes can be re-activated, as strike-slip, on one of the pre-existing normal fault cutting at depth nearly 20-30 km in the extended crust. Some of the aftershocks, including a larger one occurred 5 days later, are distributed toward NE direction 20 km away from main fault zone. Those events might be triggered by the main shock along a conjugate fault, which is surprisingly at the extension of proposed transform fault perpendicular to the rift axis of eastern Black Sea Basin. The focal mechanisms also indicate that the maximum compression in northeast Black Sea is at E-W direction, completely different from the N-S compression in the Caucasus and East Turkey controlled by Arabia-Eurasia collision. The origin of E-W maximum compression is probably the same as the secondary stress inferred from earthquakes in Racha region of the Greater Caucasus.

EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING AND SPATIAL-TEMPORAL RELATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

na

2001-02-08

It is well accepted that the 1992 M 5.6 Little Skull Mountain earthquake, the largest historical event to have occurred within 25 km of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, was triggered by the M 7.2 Landers earthquake that occurred the day before. On the premise that earthquakes can be triggered by applied stresses, we have examined the earthquake catalog from the Southern Great Basin Digital Seismic Network (SGBDSN) for other evidence of triggering by external and internal stresses. This catalog now comprises over 12,000 events, encompassing five years of consistent monitoring, and has a low threshold of completeness, varying from M 0 in the center of the network to M 1 at the fringes. We examined the SGBDSN catalog response to external stresses such as large signals propagating from teleseismic and regional earthquakes, microseismic storms, and earth tides. Results are generally negative. We also examined the interplay of earthquakes within the SGBDSN. The number of ''foreshocks'', as judged by most criteria, is significantly higher than the background seismicity rate. In order to establish this, we first removed aftershocks from the catalog with widely used methodology. The existence of SGBDSN foreshocks is supported by comparing actual statistics to those of a simulated catalog with uniform-distributed locations and Poisson-distributed times of occurrence. The probabilities of a given SGBDSN earthquake being followed by one having a higher magnitude within a short time frame and within a close distance are at least as high as those found with regional catalogs. These catalogs have completeness thresholds two to three units higher in magnitude than the SGBDSN catalog used here. The largest earthquake in the SGBDSN catalog, the M 4.7 event in Frenchman Flat on 01/27/1999, was preceded by a definite foreshock sequence. The largest event within 75 km of Yucca Mountain in historical time, the M 5.7 Scotty's Junction event of 08/01/1999, was also

EARTHQUAKE TRIGGERING AND SPATIAL-TEMPORAL RELATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

It is well accepted that the 1992 M 5.6 Little Skull Mountain earthquake, the largest historical event to have occurred within 25 km of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, was triggered by the M 7.2 Landers earthquake that occurred the day before. On the premise that earthquakes can be triggered by applied stresses, we have examined the earthquake catalog from the Southern Great Basin Digital Seismic Network (SGBDSN) for other evidence of triggering by external and internal stresses. This catalog now comprises over 12,000 events, encompassing five years of consistent monitoring, and has a low threshold of completeness, varying from M 0 in the center of the network to M 1 at the fringes. We examined the SGBDSN catalog response to external stresses such as large signals propagating from teleseismic and regional earthquakes, microseismic storms, and earth tides. Results are generally negative. We also examined the interplay of earthquakes within the SGBDSN. The number of ''foreshocks'', as judged by most criteria, is significantly higher than the background seismicity rate. In order to establish this, we first removed aftershocks from the catalog with widely used methodology. The existence of SGBDSN foreshocks is supported by comparing actual statistics to those of a simulated catalog with uniform-distributed locations and Poisson-distributed times of occurrence. The probabilities of a given SGBDSN earthquake being followed by one having a higher magnitude within a short time frame and within a close distance are at least as high as those found with regional catalogs. These catalogs have completeness thresholds two to three units higher in magnitude than the SGBDSN catalog used here. The largest earthquake in the SGBDSN catalog, the M 4.7 event in Frenchman Flat on 01/27/1999, was preceded by a definite foreshock sequence. The largest event within 75 km of Yucca Mountain in historical time, the M 5.7 Scotty's Junction event of 08/01/1999, was also preceded by foreshocks. The

What role did the Hikurangi subduction zone play in the M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake?

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, L. M.; Hamling, I. J.; Kaneko, Y.; Fry, B.; Clark, K.; Bannister, S. C.; Ellis, S. M.; Francois-Holden, C.; Hreinsdottir, S.; Mueller, C.

2017-12-01

The 2016 M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake ruptured at least a dozen faults in the northern South Island of New Zealand, within the transition from the Hikurangi subduction zone (in the North Island) to the transpressive Alpine Fault (in the central South Island). The role that the southern end of the Hikurangi subduction zone played (or did not play) in the Kaikoura earthquake remains one of the most controversial aspects of this spectacularly complex earthquake. Investigations using near-field seismological and geodetic data suggest a dominantly crustal faulting source for the event, while studies relying on teleseismic data propose that a large portion of the moment release is due to rupture of the Hikurangi subduction interface beneath the northern South Island. InSAR and GPS data also show that a large amount of afterslip (up to 0.5 m) occurred on the subduction interface beneath the crustal faults that ruptured in the M7.8 earthquake, during the months following the earthquake. Modeling of GPS velocities for the 20 year period prior to the earthquake indicate that interseismic coupling was occurring on the Hikurangi subduction interface beneath the northern South Island, in a similar location to the suggested coseismic and postseismic slip on the subduction interface. We will integrate geodetic, seismological, tsunami, and geological observations in an attempt to balance the seemingly conflicting views from local and teleseismic data regarding the role that the southern Hikurangi subduction zone played in the earthquake. We will also discuss the broader implications of the observed coseismic and postseismic deformation for understanding the kinematics of the southern termination of the Hikurangi subduction zone, and its role in the transition from subduction to strike-slip in the central New Zealand region.

Seismic quiescence before the 2016 Mw 6.0 Amatrice earthquake, central Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Di Giovambattista, R.; Gentili, S.; Peresan, A.

2017-12-01

Seismic quiescence before major worldwide earthquakes has been reported by many authors. We have analyzed the seismicity preceding the last damaging 2016-2017 seismic sequence occurred in central Italy, and we have characterized the temporal and spatial extension of the foregoing seismic quiescence. The multiple mainshock sequence (24/08/2016, Mw 6.0; 26/10/2016 Mw 5.4 and 5.9; 30/10/2016, Mw 6.5), which occurred in central Italy, caused the death of nearly 300 people and widespread destruction of entire villages. The Mw 6.5 earthquake was the most powerful recorded in Italy since the 1980 M 6.9 Irpinia earthquake. The Region-Time-Length (RTL) method has been used to quantitatively analyze the seismic quiescence preceding the first Mw 6.0 Amatrice mainshock. This analysis was performed using the earthquake catalogue maintained by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) declustered using a novel statistical approach, which is based on the "nearest-neighbor" distances between pairs of earthquakes in the space-time-energy domain. A well-evident quiescence that preceded the sequence was detected. The quiescence extended throughout a broad region north of the epicenter. The largest event of the sequence and its aftershocks covered most of the quiescence region, except for a small area to the west. The quiescence started from the beginning of September 2015 and lasted for approximately 1 year, up to the Amatrice mainshock. The results obtained have been compared with those of previous seismic sequences occurred in Italy. A similar analysis applied to the 1997-1998, Mw 5.7 Umbria-Marche earthquakes located at the northern termination of the Amatrice sequence, showed a decrease in RTL corresponding to a seismic quiescence, followed by a foreshock activation in the epicentral area before the occurrence of the mainshock.

Ionospheric Anomaly before Kyushu|Japan Earthquake

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

YANG Li

2017-05-01

Full Text Available GIM data released by IGS is used in the article and a new method of combining the Sliding Time Window Method and the Ionospheric TEC correlation analysis method of adjacent grid points is proposed to study the relationship between pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies and earthquake. By analyzing the abnormal change of TEC in the 5 grid points around the seismic region, the abnormal change of ionospheric TEC is found before the earthquake and the correlation between the TEC sequences of lattice points is significantly affected by earthquake. Based on the analysis of the spatial distribution of TEC anomaly, anomalies of 6 h, 12 h and 6 h were found near the epicenter three days before the earthquake. Finally, ionospheric tomographic technology is used to do tomographic inversion on electron density. And the distribution of the electron density in the ionospheric anomaly is further analyzed.

The Mw6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Brocher, Thomas M.; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Pollitz, Fred F.; Murray, Jessica R.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Schwartz, David P.; Blair, James Luke; Ponti, Daniel J.; Lienkaemper, James J.; Langenheim, V.E.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Shelly, David R.; Dreger, Douglas S.; Boatwright, John; Aagaard, Brad T.; Wald, David J.; Allen, Richard M.; Barnhart, William D.; Knudsen, Keith L.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Scharer, Katherine M.

2015-01-01

The Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake, which occurred at 10:20 UTC 24 August 2014 was the largest earthquake to strike the greater San Francisco Bay area since the Mw 6.9 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The rupture from this right‐lateral earthquake propagated mostly unilaterally to the north and up‐dip, directing the strongest shaking toward the city of Napa, where peak ground accelerations (PGAs) between 45%g and 61%g were recorded and modified Mercalli intensities (MMIs) of VII–VIII were reported. Tectonic surface rupture with dextral slip of up to 46 cm was observed on a 12.5 km long segment, some of which was along a previously mapped strand of the West Napa fault system, although the rupture extended to the north of the mapped Quaternary strand. Modeling of seismic and geodetic data suggests an average coseismic slip of 50 cm, with a maximum slip of about 1 m at depths of 10–11 km. We observed up to 35 cm of afterslip along the surface trace in the week following the mainshock, primarily along the southern half of the surface rupture that experienced relatively little coseismic offset. Relocation of the sparse aftershock sequence suggests en echelon southwest‐ and northeast‐dipping fault planes, reflective of the complex fault geometry in this region. The Napa basin and historic and late Holocene alluvial flood deposits in downtown Napa amplified the ground motions there. Few ground failures were mapped, reflecting the dry season (as well as a persistent drought that had lowered the groundwater table) and the short duration of strong shaking in the epicentral area.

Deeper penetration of large earthquakes on seismically quiescent faults.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Junle; Lapusta, Nadia

2016-06-10

Why many major strike-slip faults known to have had large earthquakes are silent in the interseismic period is a long-standing enigma. One would expect small earthquakes to occur at least at the bottom of the seismogenic zone, where deeper aseismic deformation concentrates loading. We suggest that the absence of such concentrated microseismicity indicates deep rupture past the seismogenic zone in previous large earthquakes. We support this conclusion with numerical simulations of fault behavior and observations of recent major events. Our modeling implies that the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California penetrated below the seismogenic zone by at least 3 to 5 kilometers. Our findings suggest that such deeper ruptures may occur on other major fault segments, potentially increasing the associated seismic hazard. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Simultaneous estimation of earthquake source parameters and ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

moderate-size aftershocks (Mw 2.1–5.1) of the Mw 7.7 2001 Bhuj earthquake. The horizontal- ... claimed a death toll of 20,000 people. This earth- .... quake occurred west of Kachchh, with an epicenter at 24. ◦. N, 68 ..... for dominance of body waves for R ≤ 100 km ...... Bhuj earthquake sequence; J. Asian Earth Sci. 40.

Aftershock Characteristics as a Means of Discriminating Explosions from Earthquakes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ford, S R; Walter, W R

2009-05-20

The behavior of aftershock sequences around the Nevada Test Site in the southern Great Basin is characterized as a potential discriminant between explosions and earthquakes. The aftershock model designed by Reasenberg and Jones (1989, 1994) allows for a probabilistic statement of earthquake-like aftershock behavior at any time after the mainshock. We use this model to define two types of aftershock discriminants. The first defines M{sub X}, or the minimum magnitude of an aftershock expected within a given duration after the mainshock with probability X. Of the 67 earthquakes with M > 4 in the study region, 63 of them produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 99} within the first seven days after a mainshock. This is contrasted with only six of 93 explosions with M > 4 that produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 99} for the same period. If the aftershock magnitude threshold is lowered and the M{sub 90} criteria is used, then no explosions produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 90} for durations that end more than 17 days after the mainshock. The other discriminant defines N{sub X}, or the minimum cumulative number of aftershocks expected for given time after the mainshock with probability X. Similar to the aftershock magnitude discriminant, five earthquakes do not produce more aftershocks than N{sub 99} within 7 days after the mainshock. However, within the same period all but one explosion produce less aftershocks then N{sub 99}. One explosion is added if the duration is shortened to two days after than mainshock. The cumulative number aftershock discriminant is more reliable, especially at short durations, but requires a low magnitude of completeness for the given earthquake catalog. These results at NTS are quite promising and should be evaluated at other nuclear test sites to understand the effects of differences in the geologic setting and nuclear testing practices on its performance.

Insights into the Fault Geometry and Rupture History of the 2016 MW 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, M.; Ji, C.

2017-12-01

The November 14th 2016 MW 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake occurred along the east coast of the northern part of the South Island. The local tectonic setting is complicated. The central South Island is dominated by oblique continental convergence, whereas the southern part of this island experiences eastward subduction of the Australian plate. Available information (e.g., Hamling et al., 2017; Bradley et al., 2017) indicate that this earthquake involved multiple fault segments of the Marlborough fault system (MFS) as the rupture propagated northwards for more than 150 km. Additional slip might also occur on the subduction interface of the Pacific plate under the Australian plate, beneath the MFS. However, the exact number of involved fault segments as well as the temporal co-seismic rupture sequence has not been fully determined with geodetic and geological observations. Knowledge of the kinematics of complex fault interactions has important implications for our understanding of global seismic hazards, particularly to relatively unmodeled multisegment ruptures. Understanding the Kaikoura earthquake will provide insight into how one incorporates multi-fault ruptures in seismic-hazard models. We propose to apply a multiple double-couple inversion to determine the fault geometry and spatiotemporal rupture history using teleseismic and strong motion waveforms, before constraining the detailed slip history using both seismic and geodetic data. The Kaikoura earthquake will be approximated as the summation of multiple subevents—each represented as a double-couple point source, characterized by i) fault geometry (strike, dip and rake), ii) seismic moment, iii) centroid time, iv) half-duration and v) location (latitude, longitude and depth), a total of nine variables. We progressively increase the number of point sources until the additional source cannot produce significant improvement to the observations. Our preliminary results using only teleseismic data indicate

Development of damage probability matrices based on Greek earthquake damage data

Science.gov (United States)

Eleftheriadou, Anastasia K.; Karabinis, Athanasios I.

2011-03-01

A comprehensive study is presented for empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of typical structural types, representative of the building stock of Southern Europe, based on a large set of damage statistics. The observational database was obtained from post-earthquake surveys carried out in the area struck by the September 7, 1999 Athens earthquake. After analysis of the collected observational data, a unified damage database has been created which comprises 180,945 damaged buildings from/after the near-field area of the earthquake. The damaged buildings are classified in specific structural types, according to the materials, seismic codes and construction techniques in Southern Europe. The seismic demand is described in terms of both the regional macroseismic intensity and the ratio α g/ a o, where α g is the maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the earthquake event and a o is the unique value PGA that characterizes each municipality shown on the Greek hazard map. The relative and cumulative frequencies of the different damage states for each structural type and each intensity level are computed in terms of damage ratio. Damage probability matrices (DPMs) and vulnerability curves are obtained for specific structural types. A comparison analysis is fulfilled between the produced and the existing vulnerability models.

Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks

Science.gov (United States)

Michael, Andrew J.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the probability that an ML 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the ML 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.

Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

Science.gov (United States)

Schorlemmer, D.; Jordan, T. H.; Zechar, J. D.; Gerstenberger, M. C.; Wiemer, S.; Maechling, P. J.

2006-12-01

Earthquake prediction is one of the most difficult problems in physical science and, owing to its societal implications, one of the most controversial. The study of earthquake predictability has been impeded by the lack of an adequate experimental infrastructure---the capability to conduct scientific prediction experiments under rigorous, controlled conditions and evaluate them using accepted criteria specified in advance. To remedy this deficiency, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) is working with its international partners, which include the European Union (through the Swiss Seismological Service) and New Zealand (through GNS Science), to develop a virtual, distributed laboratory with a cyberinfrastructure adequate to support a global program of research on earthquake predictability. This Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) will extend the testing activities of SCEC's Working Group on Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models, from which we will present first results. CSEP will support rigorous procedures for registering prediction experiments on regional and global scales, community-endorsed standards for assessing probability-based and alarm-based predictions, access to authorized data sets and monitoring products from designated natural laboratories, and software to allow researchers to participate in prediction experiments. CSEP will encourage research on earthquake predictability by supporting an environment for scientific prediction experiments that allows the predictive skill of proposed algorithms to be rigorously compared with standardized reference methods and data sets. It will thereby reduce the controversies surrounding earthquake prediction, and it will allow the results of prediction experiments to be communicated to the scientific community, governmental agencies, and the general public in an appropriate research context.

Neural network based tomographic approach to detect earthquake-related ionospheric anomalies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Hirooka

2011-08-01

Full Text Available A tomographic approach is used to investigate the fine structure of electron density in the ionosphere. In the present paper, the Residual Minimization Training Neural Network (RMTNN method is selected as the ionospheric tomography with which to investigate the detailed structure that may be associated with earthquakes. The 2007 Southern Sumatra earthquake (M = 8.5 was selected because significant decreases in the Total Electron Content (TEC have been confirmed by GPS and global ionosphere map (GIM analyses. The results of the RMTNN approach are consistent with those of TEC approaches. With respect to the analyzed earthquake, we observed significant decreases at heights of 250–400 km, especially at 330 km. However, the height that yields the maximum electron density does not change. In the obtained structures, the regions of decrease are located on the southwest and southeast sides of the Integrated Electron Content (IEC (altitudes in the range of 400–550 km and on the southern side of the IEC (altitudes in the range of 250–400 km. The global tendency is that the decreased region expands to the east with increasing altitude and concentrates in the Southern hemisphere over the epicenter. These results indicate that the RMTNN method is applicable to the estimation of ionospheric electron density.

Testing for the 'predictability' of dynamically triggered earthquakes in The Geysers geothermal field

Science.gov (United States)

Aiken, Chastity; Meng, Xiaofeng; Hardebeck, Jeanne

2018-03-01

The Geysers geothermal field is well known for being susceptible to dynamic triggering of earthquakes by large distant earthquakes, owing to the introduction of fluids for energy production. Yet, it is unknown if dynamic triggering of earthquakes is 'predictable' or whether dynamic triggering could lead to a potential hazard for energy production. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the characteristics of triggering and the physical conditions that promote triggering to determine whether or not triggering is in anyway foreseeable. We find that, at present, triggering in The Geysers is not easily 'predictable' in terms of when and where based on observable physical conditions. However, triggered earthquake magnitude positively correlates with peak imparted dynamic stress, and larger dynamic stresses tend to trigger sequences similar to mainshock-aftershock sequences. Thus, we may be able to 'predict' what size earthquakes to expect at The Geysers following a large distant earthquake.

Listening to the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Zhigang; Aiken, Chastity; Kilb, Debi; Shelly, David R.; Enescu, Bogdan

2012-01-01

The magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake on 11 March 2011 is the largest earthquake to date in Japan’s modern history and is ranked as the fourth largest earthquake in the world since 1900. This earthquake occurred within the northeast Japan subduction zone (Figure 1), where the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the Okhotsk plate at rate of ∼8–9 cm/yr (DeMets et al. 2010). This type of extremely large earthquake within a subduction zone is generally termed a “megathrust” earthquake. Strong shaking from this magnitude 9 earthquake engulfed the entire Japanese Islands, reaching a maximum acceleration ∼3 times that of gravity (3 g). Two days prior to the main event, a foreshock sequence occurred, including one earthquake of magnitude 7.2. Following the main event, numerous aftershocks occurred around the main slip region; the largest of these was magnitude 7.9. The entire foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks sequence was well recorded by thousands of sensitive seismometers and geodetic instruments across Japan, resulting in the best-recorded megathrust earthquake in history. This devastating earthquake resulted in significant damage and high death tolls caused primarily by the associated large tsunami. This tsunami reached heights of more than 30 m, and inundation propagated inland more than 5 km from the Pacific coast, which also caused a nuclear crisis that is still affecting people’s lives in certain regions of Japan.

IDENTIFICATION OF EARTHQUAKE AFTERSHOCK AND SWARM SEQUENCES IN THE BAIKAL RIFT ZONE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. A. Radziminovich

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The catalog of earthquakes (КR³6.6 which occurred in the Baikal rift zone (BRZ was declastered, and the results are presented in the article. Aftershocks of seismic events (КR³12.5 were determined by the software developed by V.B. Smirnov (Lomonosov Moscow State University with application of the algorithm co-authored by G.M. Molchan and O.E. Dmitrieva. To ensure proper control of the software application, aftershocks were also selected manually. The results of declustering show that aftershocks of the earthquakes (КR³12.5 account for about 25 per cent of all seismic events in the regional catalog. Aftershocks accompanied 90 per cent of all the earthquakes considered as main shocks. Besides, earthquake swarms, including events with КR³11, were identified. The results of this study show that, in the BRZ, the swarms and strong events with aftershocks are not spatially separated, and this conclusion differs from the views of the previous studies that reviewed data from a shorter observation period. Moreover, it is noted that the swarms may consist of several main shocks accompanied by aftershocks. The data accumulated over the last fifty years of instrumental observations support the conclusion made earlier that the swarms in BRZ occur mainly in the north-eastward direction from Lake Baikal and also confirm the trend of a small number of aftershocks accompanying earthquakes in the south-western part of the Baikal rift zone.

Mw 8.5 BENGKULU EARTHQUAKES FROM CONTINUOUS GPS DATA

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W. A. W. Aris

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The Mw 8.5 Bengkulu earthquake of 30 September 2007 and the Mw8.6 28 March 2005 are considered amongst large earthquake ever recorded in Southeast Asia. The impact into tectonic deformation was recorded by a network of Global Positioning System (GPS Continuously Operating Reference Station (CORS within southern of Sumatra and west-coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The GPS data from the GPS CORS network has been deployed to investigate the characteristic of postseismic deformation due to the earthquakes. Analytical logarithmic and exponential function was applied to investigate the deformation decay period of postseismic deformation. This investigation provides a preliminary insight into postseismic cycle along the Sumatra subduction zone in particular and on the dynamics Peninsular Malaysia in general.

Implication of conjugate faulting in the earthquake brewing and originating process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, L.M. (Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge); Deng, Q.; Jiang, P.

1980-03-01

The earthquake sequence, precursory and geologo-structural background of the Haicheng, Tangshan, Songpan-Pingwu earthquakes are discussed in this article. All of these earthquakes occurred in a seismic zone controlled by the main boundary faults of an intraplate fault block. However, the fault plane of a main earthquake does not consist of the same faults, but is rather a related secondary fault. They formed altogether a conjugate shearing rupture zone under the action of a regional tectonic stress field. As to the earthquake sequence, the foreshocks and aftershocks might occur on the conjugate fault planes within an epicentral region rather than be limited to the fault plane of a main earthquake, such as the distribution of foreshocks and aftershocks of the Haicheng earthquake. The characteristics of the long-, medium-, and imminent-term earthquake precursory anomalies of the three mentioned earthquakes, especially the character of well-studies anomaly phenomena in electrical resistivity, radon emission, groundwater and animal behavior, have been investigated. The studies of these earthquake precursors show that they were distributed in an area rather more extensive than the epicentral region. Some fault zones in the conjugate fault network usually appeared as distributed belts or concentrated zones of earthquake precursory anomalies, and can be traced in the medium-long term precursory field, but seem more distinct in the short-imminent term precursory anomalous field. These characteristics can be explained by the rupture and sliding originating along the conjugate shear network and the concentration of stress in the regional stress field.

Chilean megathrust earthquake recurrence linked to frictional contrast at depth

Science.gov (United States)

Moreno, M.; Li, S.; Melnick, D.; Bedford, J. R.; Baez, J. C.; Motagh, M.; Metzger, S.; Vajedian, S.; Sippl, C.; Gutknecht, B. D.; Contreras-Reyes, E.; Deng, Z.; Tassara, A.; Oncken, O.

2018-04-01

Fundamental processes of the seismic cycle in subduction zones, including those controlling the recurrence and size of great earthquakes, are still poorly understood. Here, by studying the 2016 earthquake in southern Chile—the first large event within the rupture zone of the 1960 earthquake (moment magnitude (Mw) = 9.5)—we show that the frictional zonation of the plate interface fault at depth mechanically controls the timing of more frequent, moderate-size deep events (Mw shallow earthquakes (Mw > 8.5). We model the evolution of stress build-up for a seismogenic zone with heterogeneous friction to examine the link between the 2016 and 1960 earthquakes. Our results suggest that the deeper segments of the seismogenic megathrust are weaker and interseismically loaded by a more strongly coupled, shallower asperity. Deeper segments fail earlier ( 60 yr recurrence), producing moderate-size events that precede the failure of the shallower region, which fails in a great earthquake (recurrence >110 yr). We interpret the contrasting frictional strength and lag time between deeper and shallower earthquakes to be controlled by variations in pore fluid pressure. Our integrated analysis strengthens understanding of the mechanics and timing of great megathrust earthquakes, and therefore could aid in the seismic hazard assessment of other subduction zones.

State of damage of radiation facilities in great Hanshin earthquake

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

The southern Hyogo Prefecture earthquake of magnitude 7.2 occurred in the early morning of January 17, 1995. The outline of the earthquake and dead and injured, the damages of buildings, life lines, roads, railways and harbors, liquefaction phenomena, the state of occurrence of fires and so on are reported. The districts where the earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger occurred, and the radiation facilities in those districts are shown. The state of damage of radiation facilities in past earthquakes is summarized. From January 17 to 19 after the earthquake, Science and Technology Agency gave necessary instruction to and heard the state of damage from 79 permitted facilities in the areas of magnitude 7 or 6 by telephone, and received the report that there was not the fear of radiation damage in all facilities. Also the state of damage of radiation facilities was investigated at the actual places, and the questionnaires on the state of radiation facilities and the action at the time of the earthquake were performed. The state of radiation facilities accompanying the earthquake is reported. The matters to be reflected to the countermeasures to earthquakes anew for the protection of facilities, communication system, facility checkup system and the resumption of use are pointed out. (K.I.)

Memory effect in M ≥ 6 earthquakes of South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jeen-Hwa

2013-07-01

The M ≥ 6 earthquakes occurred in the South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China, during 1901-2008 are taken to study the possible existence of memory effect in large earthquakes. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time. The migration of earthquakes in study is taken to discuss the possible correlation between events. The phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Together with all kinds of given information, we conclude that the earthquakes in study is short-term correlated and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.

The 1997 Kronotsky earthquake and tsunami and their predecessors, Kamchatka, Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Bourgeois, Joanne; Pinegina, Tatiana K.

2018-01-01

The northern part of the Kamchatka subduction zone (KSZ) experienced three tsunamigenic earthquakes in the 20th century - February 1923, April 1923, December 1997 - events that help us better understand the behavior of this segment. A particular focus of this study is the nature and location of the 5 December 1997 Kronotsky rupture (Mw ˜ 7.8) as elucidated by tsunami runup north of Kronotsky Peninsula in southern to central Kamchatsky Bay. Some studies have characterized the subduction zone off Kronotsky Peninsula as either more locked or more smoothly slipping than surrounding areas and have placed the 1997 rupture south of this promontory. However, 1997 tsunami runup north of the peninsula, as evidenced by our mapping of tsunami deposits, requires the rupture to extend farther north. Previously reported runup (1997 tsunami) on Kronotsky Peninsula was no more than 2-3 m, but our studies indicate tsunami heights for at least 50 km north of Kronotsky Peninsula in Kamchatsky Bay, ranging from 3.4 to 9.5 m (average 6.1 m), exceeding beach ridge heights of 5.3 to 8.3 m (average 7.1 m). For the two 1923 tsunamis, we cannot distinguish among their deposits in southern to central Kamchatsky Bay, but the deposits are more extensive than the 1997 deposit. A reevaluation of the April 1923 historical tsunami suggests that its moment magnitude could be revised upward, and that the 1997 earthquake filled a gap between the two 1923 earthquake ruptures. Characterizing these historical earthquakes and tsunamis in turn contributes to interpreting the prehistoric record, which is necessary to evaluate recurrence intervals for such events. Deeper in time, the prehistoric record back to ˜ AD 300 in southern to central Kamchatsky Bay indicates that during this interval, there were no local events significantly larger than those of the 20th century. Together, the historic and prehistoric tsunami record suggests a more northerly location of the 1997 rupture compared to most other

The 1997 Kronotsky earthquake and tsunami and their predecessors, Kamchatka, Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Bourgeois

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The northern part of the Kamchatka subduction zone (KSZ experienced three tsunamigenic earthquakes in the 20th century – February 1923, April 1923, December 1997 – events that help us better understand the behavior of this segment. A particular focus of this study is the nature and location of the 5 December 1997 Kronotsky rupture (Mw ∼ 7.8 as elucidated by tsunami runup north of Kronotsky Peninsula in southern to central Kamchatsky Bay. Some studies have characterized the subduction zone off Kronotsky Peninsula as either more locked or more smoothly slipping than surrounding areas and have placed the 1997 rupture south of this promontory. However, 1997 tsunami runup north of the peninsula, as evidenced by our mapping of tsunami deposits, requires the rupture to extend farther north. Previously reported runup (1997 tsunami on Kronotsky Peninsula was no more than 2–3 m, but our studies indicate tsunami heights for at least 50 km north of Kronotsky Peninsula in Kamchatsky Bay, ranging from 3.4 to 9.5 m (average 6.1 m, exceeding beach ridge heights of 5.3 to 8.3 m (average 7.1 m. For the two 1923 tsunamis, we cannot distinguish among their deposits in southern to central Kamchatsky Bay, but the deposits are more extensive than the 1997 deposit. A reevaluation of the April 1923 historical tsunami suggests that its moment magnitude could be revised upward, and that the 1997 earthquake filled a gap between the two 1923 earthquake ruptures. Characterizing these historical earthquakes and tsunamis in turn contributes to interpreting the prehistoric record, which is necessary to evaluate recurrence intervals for such events. Deeper in time, the prehistoric record back to ∼ AD 300 in southern to central Kamchatsky Bay indicates that during this interval, there were no local events significantly larger than those of the 20th century. Together, the historic and prehistoric tsunami record suggests a more northerly location of

Long aftershock sequences in North China and Central US: implications for hazard assessment in mid-continents

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Mian; Luo, Gang; Wang, Hui; Stein, Seth

2014-02-01

Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811-1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.

Temporal b-Value Variations through out a Seismic Faulting Process: The 2008 Taoyuan Earthquake in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheng-Horng Lin

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Temporal b-value variations have been completely obtained for the seismic faulting process of the 4 March 2008 Taoyuan earthquake (ML = 5.2, southern Taiwan. In addition to triggering several hundred after shocks, the mainshock was preceded by two groups of foreshocks (64 events that clustered along the narrow major fault zone. A high b-value of ~1.25, estimated from the foreshock series, representing fault growth, was significantly larger than the b-values of 0.80 and 0.81, obtained respectively from after shocks and back ground seismicity. Also there were some pre-shocks (i.e., micro-earth quakes that occurred one month before the earthquake sequence, with an extremely high b-value of ~2.1. This number might successfully indicate pre-nucleation seismic features in the vicinity of the fault zone. These seismic characteristics are fundamentally very similar to general features such as fracture nucleation and growth observed in rock samples under controlled stress in laboratory experiments, and thus ought to be considered to improve our understanding of crustal fault growth.

Rapid earthquake characterization using MEMS accelerometers and volunteer hosts following the M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, J. F.; Cochran, E.S.; Chung, A.; Kaiser, A.; Christensen, C. M.; Allen, R.; Baker, J.W.; Fry, B.; Heaton, T.; Kilb, Debi; Kohler, M.D.; Taufer, M.

2014-01-01

We test the feasibility of rapidly detecting and characterizing earthquakes with the Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) that connects low‐cost microelectromechanical systems accelerometers to a network of volunteer‐owned, Internet‐connected computers. Following the 3 September 2010 M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake we installed over 180 QCN sensors in the Christchurch region to record the aftershock sequence. The sensors are monitored continuously by the host computer and send trigger reports to the central server. The central server correlates incoming triggers to detect when an earthquake has occurred. The location and magnitude are then rapidly estimated from a minimal set of received ground‐motion parameters. Full seismic time series are typically not retrieved for tens of minutes or even hours after an event. We benchmark the QCN real‐time detection performance against the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog. Under normal network operations, QCN detects and characterizes earthquakes within 9.1 s of the earthquake rupture and determines the magnitude within 1 magnitude unit of that reported in the GNS catalog for 90% of the detections.

Study of temporal sequences of LANSAT images to detect the accumulation of stress prior of strong earthquakes in Chile.

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Arellano-Baeza, A. A.

2016-12-01

We studied the temporal evolution of the lineaments obtained from the LANSAT-8 associated to the accumulation of stress patterns related to the seismic activity. A lineament is generally defined as a straight or a somewhat curved feature in the landscape visible in a satellite image as an aligned sequence of pixels of a contrasting intensity compared to the background. The system of lineaments extracted from the satellite images is not identical to the geological lineaments; nevertheless, it generally reflects the structure of the faults and fractures in the Earth's crust. The satellite images were processed by the ADALGEO software developed by us. We selected two areas of study with different characteristics. The first area is located near to the Diego de Almagro town in the Copiapo region, Chile. This area did not show any strong seismic activity between 2010 and 2015. However, two strong earthquakes took place later on April 16, 2016 (Mw=5.3) and July 25, 2016 (Mw=6.1). The second area located near the Illapel town in Coquimbo region shows lack of strong earthquakes between 2010 and 2012 and strong seismic activity between 2012 and 2015, culminating by the September 16, 2015 earthquake (Mw=8.3). The distance between two areas is nearly 600 km. In case of the Diego de Almagro area, very few lineaments have been observed between 2010 and 2015, showing a significant increase during the 2016. In case of the Illapel region, the number of lineaments was always much higher, showing an explosive increase at the end of 2015. For both areas the lineaments changed its orientation before strong earthquakes.

Testing for the ‘predictability’ of dynamically triggered earthquakes in Geysers Geothermal Field

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Aiken, Chastity; Meng, Xiaofeng; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

2018-01-01

The Geysers geothermal field is well known for being susceptible to dynamic triggering of earthquakes by large distant earthquakes, owing to the introduction of fluids for energy production. Yet, it is unknown if dynamic triggering of earthquakes is ‘predictable’ or whether dynamic triggering could lead to a potential hazard for energy production. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the characteristics of triggering and the physical conditions that promote triggering to determine whether or not triggering is in anyway foreseeable. We find that, at present, triggering in The Geysers is not easily ‘predictable’ in terms of when and where based on observable physical conditions. However, triggered earthquake magnitude positively correlates with peak imparted dynamic stress, and larger dynamic stresses tend to trigger sequences similar to mainshock–aftershock sequences. Thus, we may be able to ‘predict’ what size earthquakes to expect at The Geysers following a large distant earthquake.

Ground Deformation and Sources geometry of the 2016 Central Italy Earthquake Sequence Investigated through Analytical and Numerical Modeling of DInSAR Measurements and Structural-Geological Data

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Solaro, G.; Bonano, M.; Boncio, P.; Brozzetti, F.; Castaldo, R.; Casu, F.; Cirillo, D.; Cheloni, D.; De Luca, C.; De Nardis, R.; De Novellis, V.; Ferrarini, F.; Lanari, R.; Lavecchia, G.; Manunta, M.; Manzo, M.; Pepe, A.; Pepe, S.; Tizzani, P.; Zinno, I.

2017-12-01

The 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence started on 24th August with a MW 6.1 event, where the intra-Apennine WSW-dipping Vettore-Gorzano extensional fault system released a destructive earthquake, causing 300 casualties and extensive damage to the town of Amatrice and surroundings. We generated several interferograms by using ALOS and Sentinel 1-A and B constellation data acquired on both ascending and descending orbits to show that most displacement is characterized by two main subsiding lobes of about 20 cm on the fault hanging-wall. By inverting the generated interferograms, following the Okada analytical approach, the modelling results account for two sources related to main shock and more energetic aftershock. Through Finite Element numerical modelling that jointly exploits DInSAR deformation measurements and structural-geological data, we reconstruct the 3D source of the Amatrice 2016 normal fault earthquake which well fit the main shock. The inversion shows that the co-seismic displacement area was partitioned on two distinct en echelon fault planes, which at the main event hypocentral depth (8 km) merge in one single WSW-dipping surface. Slip peaks were higher along the southern half of the Vettore fault, lower along the northern half of Gorzano fault and null in the relay zone between the two faults; field evidence of co-seismic surface rupture are coherent with the reconstructed scenario. The following seismic sequence was characterized by numerous aftershocks located southeast and northwest of the epicenter which decreased in frequency and magnitude until the end of October, when a MW 5.9 event occurred on 26th October about 25 km to the NW of the previous mainshock. Then, on 30th October, a third large event of magnitude MW 6.5 nucleated below the town of Norcia, striking the area between the two preceding events and filling the gap between the previous ruptures. Also in this case, we exploit a large dataset of DInSAR and GPS measurements to investigate

Research on groundwater radon as a fluid phase precursor to earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teng, T.; Sun, L.

1986-01-01

Groundwater radon monitoring work carried out in southern California by the University of Southern California since 1974 is summarized here. This effort began with a sampling network over a locked segment of the San Andreas fault from Tejon to Cajon and was later expanded to cover part of the southern Transverse Mountain ranges. Groundwater samples were brought back weekly to the laboratory for high precision scintillation counting. Needs for more frequent sampling and less labor prompted the development of an economical and field worthy instrument known as the continuous radon monitor. About 10 have been installed in the network since early 1980. The groundwater radon content was found to show anomalous increases (mostly at a single station) before a number of moderate and nearby earthquakes. Our work is hampered by a lack of large earthquakes that may have a regional impact on radon anomalies and by the complexity of the underground hydrological regime. To circumvent this difficulty, we have chosen to monitor only deep artesian wells or hot spring wells

Earthquakes in Fiordland, Southern Chile: Initiation and Development of a Magmatic Process

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Barrientos, S.; Service, N. S.

2007-05-01

Several efforts in Chile are being conducted in relation to geophysical monitoring with the objective of disaster mitigation. A long and permanent monitoring effort along the country has been the continuous effort resulting in the recognition and delineation of new seismogenic sources. Here we report on the seismo-volcanic crisis that is currently taking place in the in the region close to the triple junction (Nazca, Antarctica and South America) in southern Chile at around latitude 45°S. On January 22, 2007, an intensity V-VI (MMI) earthquake shook the cities of Puerto Aysén, Puerto Chacabuco and Coyhaique. This magnitude 5 event, was the first of a series of earthquakes that have taken place in the region for nearly a month and a half (until end of February, time when this abstract was written). The closest station to the source area -part of the GEOSCOPE network located in Coyhaique, about 80 km away from the epicenters- reveals seismic activity about 3 hours before the first event. Immediately after the first event, more than 20 events per hour were detected and recorded by this station, rate which decreased with time with the exception of those time intervals following larger events. More than six events with magnitude 5 or more have been recorded. Five seismic stations were installed surrounding the epicentral area between 27 - 29 January and are currently operational. After processing some of the recorded events, a sixth station was installed at the closest possible site of the source of the seismic activity. Preliminary analysis of the recorded seismic activity reveals a concentration of hypocenters - 5 to 10 km depth- along an eight-km NNE-SSW vertical plane crossing the Aysén fiord. Harmonic tremor has also been detected. This seismic activity is interpreted as the result of a magmatic process in progress which will most likely culminate in the generation of a new underwater volcanic edifice. Because the seismic activity fully extends across the Ays

Using remote sensing to predict earthquake impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Fylaktos, Asimakis; Yfantidou, Anastasia

2017-09-01

Natural hazards like earthquakes can result to enormous property damage, and human casualties in mountainous areas. Italy has always been exposed to numerous earthquakes, mostly concentrated in central and southern regions. Last year, two seismic events near Norcia (central Italy) have occurred, which led to substantial loss of life and extensive damage to properties, infrastructure and cultural heritage. This research utilizes remote sensing products and GIS software, to provide a database of information. We used both SAR images of Sentinel 1A and optical imagery of Landsat 8 to examine the differences of topography with the aid of the multi temporal monitoring technique. This technique suits for the observation of any surface deformation. This database is a cluster of information regarding the consequences of the earthquakes in groups, such as property and infrastructure damage, regional rifts, cultivation loss, landslides and surface deformations amongst others, all mapped on GIS software. Relevant organizations can implement these data in order to calculate the financial impact of these types of earthquakes. In the future, we can enrich this database including more regions and enhance the variety of its applications. For instance, we could predict the future impacts of any type of earthquake in several areas, and design a preliminarily model of emergency for immediate evacuation and quick recovery response. It is important to know how the surface moves, in particular geographical regions like Italy, Cyprus and Greece, where earthquakes are so frequent. We are not able to predict earthquakes, but using data from this research, we may assess the damage that could be caused in the future.

A Test Case for the Source Inversion Validation: The 2014 ML 5.5 Orkney, South Africa Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Ellsworth, W. L.; Ogasawara, H.; Boettcher, M. S.

2017-12-01

The ML5.5 earthquake of August 5, 2014 occurred on a near-vertical strike slip fault below abandoned and active gold mines near Orkney, South Africa. A dense network of surface and in-mine seismometers recorded the earthquake and its aftershock sequence. In-situ stress measurements and rock samples through the damage zone and rupture surface are anticipated to be available from the "Drilling into Seismogenic Zones of M2.0-M5.5 Earthquakes in South African gold mines" project (DSeis) that is currently progressing toward the rupture zone (Science, doi: 10.1126/science.aan6905). As of 24 July, 95% of drilled core has been recovered from a 427m-section of the 1st hole from 2.9 km depth with minimal core discing and borehole breakouts. A 2nd hole is planned to intersect the fault at greater depth. Absolute differential stress will be measured along the holes and frictional characteristics of the recovered core will be determined in the lab. Surface seismic reflection data and exploration drilling from the surface down to the mining horizon at 3km depth is also available to calibrate the velocity structure above the mining horizon and image reflective geological boundaries and major faults below the mining horizon. The remarkable quality and range of geophysical data available for the Orkney earthquake makes this event an ideal test case for the Source Inversion Validation community using actual seismic data to determine the spatial and temporal evolution of earthquake rupture. We invite anyone with an interest in kinematic modeling to develop a rupture model for the Orkney earthquake. Seismic recordings of the earthquake and information on the faulting geometry can be found in Moyer et al. (2017, doi: 10.1785/0220160218). A workshop supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center will be held in the spring of 2018 to compare kinematic models. Those interested in participating in the modeling exercise and the workshop should contact the authors for additional

Data Delivery Latency Improvements And First Steps Towards The Distributed Computing Of The Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network Earthquake Early Warning System

Science.gov (United States)

Stubailo, I.; Watkins, M.; Devora, A.; Bhadha, R. J.; Hauksson, E.; Thomas, V. I.

2016-12-01

The USGS/Caltech Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN) is a modern digital ground motion seismic network. It develops and maintains Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) data collection and delivery systems in southern California as well as real-time EEW algorithms. Recently, Behr et al., SRL, 2016 analyzed data from several regional seismic networks deployed around the globe. They showed that the SCSN was the network with the smallest data communication delays or latency. Since then, we have reduced further the telemetry delays for many of the 330 current sites. The latency has been reduced on average from 2-6 sec to 0.4 seconds by tuning the datalogger parameters and/or deploying software upgrades. Recognizing the latency data as one of the crucial parameters in EEW, we have started archiving the per-packet latencies in mseed format for all the participating sites in a similar way it is traditionally done for the seismic waveform data. The archived latency values enable us to understand and document long-term changes in performance of the telemetry links. We can also retroactively investigate how latent the waveform data were during a specific event or during a specific time period. In addition the near-real time latency values are useful for monitoring and displaying the real-time station latency, in particular to compare different telemetry technologies. A future step to reduce the latency is to deploy the algorithms on the dataloggers at the seismic stations and transmit either the final solutions or intermediate parameters to a central processing center. To implement this approach, we are developing a stand-alone version of the OnSite algorithm to run on the dataloggers in the field. This will increase the resiliency of the SCSN to potential telemetry restrictions in the immediate aftermath of a large earthquake, either by allowing local alarming by the single station, or permitting transmission of lightweight parametric information rather than continuous

Sediment gravity flows triggered by remotely generated earthquake waves

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, H. Paul; Gomberg, Joan S.; Hautala, Susan L.; Salmi, Marie S.

2017-06-01

Recent great earthquakes and tsunamis around the world have heightened awareness of the inevitability of similar events occurring within the Cascadia Subduction Zone of the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed seafloor temperature, pressure, and seismic signals, and video stills of sediment-enveloped instruments recorded during the 2011-2015 Cascadia Initiative experiment, and seafloor morphology. Our results led us to suggest that thick accretionary prism sediments amplified and extended seismic wave durations from the 11 April 2012 Mw8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake, located more than 13,500 km away. These waves triggered a sequence of small slope failures on the Cascadia margin that led to sediment gravity flows culminating in turbidity currents. Previous studies have related the triggering of sediment-laden gravity flows and turbidite deposition to local earthquakes, but this is the first study in which the originating seismic event is extremely distant (> 10,000 km). The possibility of remotely triggered slope failures that generate sediment-laden gravity flows should be considered in inferences of recurrence intervals of past great Cascadia earthquakes from turbidite sequences. Future similar studies may provide new understanding of submarine slope failures and turbidity currents and the hazards they pose to seafloor infrastructure and tsunami generation in regions both with and without local earthquakes.

Slab Geometry and Deformation in the Northern Nazca Subduction Zone Inferred From The Relocation and Focal mechanisms of Intermediate-Depth Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Y.; Warren, L. M.; Prieto, G. A.

2015-12-01

In the northern Nazca subduction zone, the Nazca plate is subducting to the east beneath the South American Plate. At ~5.6ºN, the subducting plate has a 240-km east-west offset associated with a slab tear, called the Caldas tear, that separates the northern and southern segments. Our study seeks to better define the slab geometry and deformation in the southern segment, which has a high rate of intermediate-depth earthquakes (50-300 km) between 3.6ºN and 5.2ºN in the Cauca cluster. From Jan 2010 to Mar 2014, 228 intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Cauca cluster with local magnitude Ml 2.5-4.7 were recorded by 65 seismic stations of the Colombian National Seismic Network. We review and, if necessary, adjust the catalog P and S wave arrival picks. We use the travel times to relocate the earthquakes using a double difference relocation method. For earthquakes with Ml ≥3.8, we also use waveform modeling to compute moment tensors . The distribution of earthquake relocations shows an ~15-km-thick slab dipping to the SE. The dip angle increases from 20º at the northern edge of the cluster to 38º at the southern edge. Two concentrated groups of earthquakes extend ~40 km vertically above the general downdip trend, with a 20 km quiet gap between them at ~100 km depth. The earthquakes in the general downdip seismic zone have downdip compressional axes, while earthquakes close to the quiet gap and in the concentrated groups have an oblique component. The general decrease in slab dip angle to the north may be caused by mantle flow through the Caldas tear. The seismicity gap in the slab may be associated with an active deformation zone and the concentrated groups of earthquakes with oblique focal mechanisms could be due to a slab fold.

Rapid characterization of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence and its seismotectonic context

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, Gavin; Briggs, Richard; Barnhart, William D.; Yeck, William; McNamara, Daniel E.; Wald, David J.; Nealy, Jennifer; Benz, Harley M.; Gold, Ryan D.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Marano, Kristin; Earle, Paul S.; Hearne, Mike; Smoczyk, Gregory M.; Wald, Lisa A.; Samsonov, Sergey

2015-01-01

Earthquake response and related information products are important for placing recent seismic events into context and particularly for understanding the impact earthquakes can have on the regional community and its infrastructure. These tools are even more useful if they are available quickly, ahead of detailed information from the areas affected by such earthquakes. Here we provide an overview of the response activities and related information products generated and provided by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center in association with the 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. This group monitors global earthquakes 24  hrs/day and 7  days/week to provide rapid information on the location and size of recent events and to characterize the source properties, tectonic setting, and potential fatalities and economic losses associated with significant earthquakes. We present the timeline over which these products became available, discuss what they tell us about the seismotectonics of the Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks, and examine how their information is used today, and might be used in the future, to help mitigate the impact of such natural disasters.

The role of complex site and basin response in Wellington city, New Zealand, during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake and other recent earthquake sequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaiser, A. E.; McVerry, G.; Wotherspoon, L.; Bradley, B.; Gerstenberger, M.; Benites, R. A.; Bruce, Z.; Bourguignon, S.; Giallini, S.; Hill, M.

2017-12-01

We present analysis of ground motion and complex amplification characteristics in Wellington during recent earthquake sequences and an overview of the 3D basin characterization and ongoing work to update site parameters for seismic design. Significant damage was observed in central Wellington, New Zealand's capital city, following the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikōura earthquake. Damage was concentrated in mid-rise structures (5 - 15 storeys) and was clearly exacerbated by the particular characteristics of ground motion and the presence of basin effects. Due to the distance of the source (50 - 60km) from the central city, peak ground accelerations were moderate (up to 0.28g) and well within ultimate limit state (ULS) design levels. However, spectral accelerations within the 1 -2 s period range, exceeded 1 in 500 year design level spectra (ULS) in deeper parts of the basin. Amplification with respect to rock at these locations reached factors of up to 7, and was also observed with factors up to at least three across all central city soil recording sites. The ground motions in Wellington were the strongest recorded in the modern era of instrumentation. While similar amplification was observed during the 2013 Mw 6.6 Cook Strait and Grassmere earthquakes, which struck close to the termination of the Kaikōura earthquake rupture, these sources were not sufficiently large to excite significant long-period motions. However, other M7.2+ sources in the region that dominate the seismic hazard, e.g. Wellington Fault, Hikurangi subduction interface and other large proximal crustal faults, are also potentially capable of exciting significant long-period basin response in Wellington. These observations and the expectation of ongoing heightened seismicity have prompted re-evaluation of the current seismic demand levels. Additional field campaigns have also been undertaken to update geotechnical properties and the 3D basin model, in order to inform ongoing research and seismic design practice.

The April 2007 earthquake swarm near Lake Trichonis and implications for active tectonics in western Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Kiratzi, A.; Sokos, E.; Ganas, A.; Tselentis, A.; Benetatos, C.; Roumelioti, Z.; Serpetsidaki, A.; Andriopoulos, G.; Galanis, O.; Petrou, P.

2008-06-01

We investigate the properties of the April 2007 earthquake swarm (Mw 5.2) which occurred at the vicinity of Lake Trichonis (western Greece). First we relocated the earthquakes, using P- and S-wave arrivals to the stations of the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network (HUSN), and then we applied moment tensor inversion to regional broad-band waveforms to obtain the focal mechanisms of the strongest events of the 2007 swarm. The relocated epicentres, cluster along the eastern banks of the lake, and follow a distinct NNW-ESE trend. The previous strong sequence close to Lake Trichonis occurred in June-December 1975. We applied teleseismic body waveform inversion, to obtain the focal mechanism solution of the strongest earthquake of this sequence, i.e. the 31 December 1975 (Mw 6.0) event. Our results indicate that: a) the 31 December 1975 Mw 6.0 event was produced by a NW-SE normal fault, dipping to the NE, with considerable sinistral strike-slip component; we relocated its epicentre: i) using phase data reported to ISC and its coordinates are 38.486°N, 21.661°E; ii) using the available macroseismic data, and the coordinates of the macroseismic epicentre are 38.49°N, 21.63°E, close to the strongly affected village of Kato Makrinou; b) the earthquakes of the 2007 swarm indicate a NNW-SSE strike for the activated main structure, parallel to the eastern banks of Lake Trichonis, dipping to the NE and characterized by mainly normal faulting, occasionally combined with sinistral strike-slip component. The 2007 earthquake swarm did not rupture the well documented E-W striking Trichonis normal fault that bounds the southern flank of the lake, but on the contrary it is due to rupture of a NW-SE normal fault that strikes at a ˜ 45° angle to the Trichonis fault. The left-lateral component of faulting is mapped for the first time to the north of the Gulf of Patras which was previously regarded as the boundary for strike-slip motions in western Greece. This result signifies the

Deep-Sea Turbidites as Guides to Holocene Earthquake History at the Cascadia Subduction Zone—Alternative Views for a Seismic-Hazard Workshop

Science.gov (United States)

Atwater, Brian F.; Griggs, Gary B.

2012-01-01

This report reviews the geological basis for some recent estimates of earthquake hazards in the Cascadia region between southern British Columbia and northern California. The largest earthquakes to which the region is prone are in the range of magnitude 8-9. The source of these great earthquakes is the fault down which the oceanic Juan de Fuca Plate is being subducted or thrust beneath the North American Plate. Geologic evidence for their occurrence includes sedimentary deposits that have been observed in cores from deep-sea channels and fans. Earthquakes can initiate subaqueous slumps or slides that generate turbidity currents and which produce the sedimentary deposits known as turbidites. The hazard estimates reviewed in this report are derived mainly from deep-sea turbidites that have been interpreted as proxy records of great Cascadia earthquakes. The estimates were first published in 2008. Most of the evidence for them is contained in a monograph now in press. We have reviewed a small part of this evidence, chiefly from Cascadia Channel and its tributaries, all of which head offshore the Pacific coast of Washington State. According to the recent estimates, the Cascadia plate boundary ruptured along its full length in 19 or 20 earthquakes of magnitude 9 in the past 10,000 years; its northern third broke during these giant earthquakes only, and southern segments produced at least 20 additional, lesser earthquakes of Holocene age. The turbidite case for full-length ruptures depends on stratigraphic evidence for simultaneous shaking at the heads of multiple submarine canyons. The simultaneity has been inferred primarily from turbidite counts above a stratigraphic datum, sandy beds likened to strong-motion records, and radiocarbon ages adjusted for turbidity-current erosion. In alternatives proposed here, this turbidite evidence for simultaneous shaking is less sensitive to earthquake size and frequency than previously thought. Turbidites far below a channel

Geological and seismotectonic characteristics of the broader area of the October 15, 2016, earthquake (Ioannina, Greece)

Science.gov (United States)

Pavlides, Spyros; Ganas, Athanasios; Chatzipetros, Alexandros; Sboras, Sotiris; Valkaniotis, Sotiris; Papathanassiou, George; Thomaidou, Efi; Georgiadis, George

2017-04-01

This paper examines the seismotectonic setting of the moderate earthquake of October 15, 2016, Μw=5.3 (or 5.5), in the broader area of ​​Ioannina (Epirus, Greece). In this region the problem of reviewing the geological structure with new and modern methods and techniques, in relation to the geological-seismological evidence of the recent seismic sequence, is addressed. The seismic stimulation of landslides and other soil deformations is also examined. The earthquake is interpreted as indicative of a geotectonic environment of lithospheric compression, which comprises the backbone of Pindos mountain range. It starts from southern Albania and traverses western Greece, in an almost N-S direction. This is a seismically active region with a history of strong and moderate earthquakes, such as these of 1969 (Ms=5.8), 1960 (South Albania, M> 6.5, maximum intensity VIII+) and 1967 (Arta-Ioannina, M = 6.4, maximum intensity IX). The recent earthquake is associated with a known fault zone as recorded and identified in the Greek Database of Seismogenic Sources (GreDaSS, www.gredass.unife.it). Focal mechanism data indicate that the seismic fault is reverse or high-angle thrust, striking NNW-SSE and dipping to the E. The upper part of Epirus crust (brittle), which have an estimated maximum thickness of 10 km, do not show any significant seismicity. The deeper seismicity of 10-20 km, such as this of the recent earthquake, is caused by deep crustal processes with reverse - high-angle thrust faults. We suggest that the case of this earthquake is peculiar, complex and requires careful study and attention. The precise determination of the seismogenic fault and its dimensions, although not possible to be identified by direct field observations, can be assessed through the study of seismological and geodetic data (GPS, satellite images, stress transfer), as well as its seismic behavior. Field work in the broader area, in combination with instrumental data, can contribute to

Remotely-triggered Slip in Mexico City Induced by the September 2017 Mw=7.1 Puebla Earthquake.

Science.gov (United States)

Solano Rojas, D. E.; Havazli, E.; Cabral-Cano, E.; Wdowinski, S.

2017-12-01

Although the epicenter of the September 19th, 2017 Mw=7.1 Puebla earthquake is located 100 km from Mexico City, the earthquake caused severe destruction in the city, leading to life loss and property damage. Mexico City is built on a thick clay-rich sedimentary sequence and, hence, is susceptible to seismic acceleration during earthquakes. The sediment layer also causes land subsidence, at rates as high as 350 mm/yr, and surface faulting. The earthquake damage in the eastern part of the city, characterized by the collapse of several buildings, can be explained by seismic amplification. However, the damage in the southern part of the city, characterized by the collapse of small houses and surface faulting, requires a different explanation. We present here geodetic observations suggesting that the surface faulting in Mexico City triggered by the Puebla earthquake occurred in areas already experiencing differential displacements. Our study is based on Sentinel-1A satellite data from before and after the earthquake (September 17th and 29th, 2017). We process the data using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) to produce a coseismic interferogram. We also identify phase discontinuities that can be interpreted as surface faulting using the phase gradient technique (Price and Sandwell, 1998). The results of our analysis reveal the locations and patterns of coseismic phase discontinuities, mainly in the piedmont of the Sierra de Santa Catarina, which agree with the location of earthquake's damage reported by official and unofficial sources (GCDMX, 2017; OSM, 2017). The observed phase discontinuities also agree well with the location of preexisting, subsidence-related faults identified during 10 years of field surveys (GCDMX, 2017) and coincide with differential displacements identified using a Fast Fourier Transform residual technique on high-resolution InSAR results from 2012 (Solano-Rojas et. al, 2017). We propose that the seismic energy released by the 2017

Spatial Evaluation and Verification of Earthquake Simulators

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, John Max; Yoder, Mark R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.; Schultz, Kasey W.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we address the problem of verifying earthquake simulators with observed data. Earthquake simulators are a class of computational simulations which attempt to mirror the topological complexity of fault systems on which earthquakes occur. In addition, the physics of friction and elastic interactions between fault elements are included in these simulations. Simulation parameters are adjusted so that natural earthquake sequences are matched in their scaling properties. Physically based earthquake simulators can generate many thousands of years of simulated seismicity, allowing for a robust capture of the statistical properties of large, damaging earthquakes that have long recurrence time scales. Verification of simulations against current observed earthquake seismicity is necessary, and following past simulator and forecast model verification methods, we approach the challenges in spatial forecast verification to simulators; namely, that simulator outputs are confined to the modeled faults, while observed earthquake epicenters often occur off of known faults. We present two methods for addressing this discrepancy: a simplistic approach whereby observed earthquakes are shifted to the nearest fault element and a smoothing method based on the power laws of the epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model, which distributes the seismicity of each simulated earthquake over the entire test region at a decaying rate with epicentral distance. To test these methods, a receiver operating characteristic plot was produced by comparing the rate maps to observed m>6.0 earthquakes in California since 1980. We found that the nearest-neighbor mapping produced poor forecasts, while the ETAS power-law method produced rate maps that agreed reasonably well with observations.

Links Between Earthquake Characteristics and Subducting Plate Heterogeneity in the 2016 Pedernales Ecuador Earthquake Rupture Zone

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

2016-12-01

The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

2014 mainshock-aftershock activity versus earthquake swarms in West\

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Jakoubková, Hana; Horálek, Josef; Fischer, T.

2018-01-01

Roč. 175, č. 1 (2018), s. 109-131 ISSN 0033-4553 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP210/12/2336; GA MŠk(CZ) LM2015079 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : West Bohemia/Vogtland * earthquake swarms * mainshock-aftershock sequence * total seismic moment * statistical characteristics of earthquake activities Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.591, year: 2016

Earthquake cycle deformation and the Moho: Implications for the rheology of continental lithosphere

OpenAIRE

Wright, TJ; Elliott, JR; Wang, H; Ryder, I

2013-01-01

The last 20. years has seen a dramatic improvement in the quantity and quality of geodetic measurements of the earthquake loading cycle. In this paper we compile and review these observations and test whether crustal thickness exerts any control. We found 78 earthquake source mechanisms for continental earthquakes derived from satellite geodesy, 187 estimates of interseismic "locking depth", and 23 earthquakes (or sequences) for which postseismic deformation has been observed. Globally we est...

Search for Anisotropy Changes Associated with Two Large Earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand

Science.gov (United States)

Savage, M. K.; Graham, K.; Aoki, Y.; Arnold, R.

2017-12-01

Seismic anisotropy is often considered to be an indicator of stress in the crust, because the closure of cracks due to differential stress leads to waves polarized parallel to the cracks travelling faster than the orthogonal direction. Changes in shear wave splitting have been suggested to result from stress changes at volcanoes and earthquakes. However, the effects of mineral or structural alignment, and the difficulty of distinguishing between changes in anisotropy along an earthquake-station path from distinguishing changes in the path itself, have made such findings controversial. Two large earthquakes in 2016 provide unique datasets to test the use of shear wave splitting for measuring variations in stress because clusters of closely-spaced earthquakes occurred both before and after a mainshock. We use the automatic, objective splitting analysis code MFAST to speed process and minimize unwitting observer bias when determining time variations. The sequence of earthquakes related to the M=7.2 Japanese Kumamoto earthquake of 14 April 2016 includes both foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The sequence was recorded by the NIED permanent network, which already contributed background seismic anisotropy measurements in a previous study of anisotropy and stress in Kyushu. Preliminary measurements of shear wave splitting from earthquakes that occurred in 2016 show results at some stations that clearly differ from those of the earlier study. They also change between earthquakes recorded before and after the mainshock. Further work is under way to determine whether the changes are more likely due to changes in stress during the observation time, or due to spatial changes in anisotropy combined with changes in earthquake locations. Likewise, background seismicity and also foreshocks and aftershocks in the 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence including two M=6.5 earthquakes in 2013 in New Zealand were in the same general region as aftershocks of the M=7.8 Kaikoura

Ground-rupturing earthquakes on the northern Big Bend of the San Andreas Fault, California, 800 A.D. to Present

Science.gov (United States)

Scharer, Katherine M.; Weldon, Ray; Biasi, Glenn; Streig, Ashley; Fumal, Thomas E.

2017-01-01

Paleoseismic data on the timing of ground-rupturing earthquakes constrain the recurrence behavior of active faults and can provide insight on the rupture history of a fault if earthquakes dated at neighboring sites overlap in age and are considered correlative. This study presents the evidence and ages for 11 earthquakes that occurred along the Big Bend section of the southern San Andreas Fault at the Frazier Mountain paleoseismic site. The most recent earthquake to rupture the site was the Mw7.7–7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857. We use over 30 trench excavations to document the structural and sedimentological evolution of a small pull-apart basin that has been repeatedly faulted and folded by ground-rupturing earthquakes. A sedimentation rate of 0.4 cm/yr and abundant organic material for radiocarbon dating contribute to a record that is considered complete since 800 A.D. and includes 10 paleoearthquakes. Earthquakes have ruptured this location on average every ~100 years over the last 1200 years, but individual intervals range from ~22 to 186 years. The coefficient of variation of the length of time between earthquakes (0.7) indicates quasiperiodic behavior, similar to other sites along the southern San Andreas Fault. Comparison with the earthquake chronology at neighboring sites along the fault indicates that only one other 1857-size earthquake could have occurred since 1350 A.D., and since 800 A.D., the Big Bend and Mojave sections have ruptured together at most 50% of the time in Mw ≥ 7.3 earthquakes.

A model of return intervals between earthquake events

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yu; Chechkin, Aleksei; Sokolov, Igor M.; Kantz, Holger

2016-06-01

Application of the diffusion entropy analysis and the standard deviation analysis to the time sequence of the southern California earthquake events from 1976 to 2002 uncovered scaling behavior typical for anomalous diffusion. However, the origin of such behavior is still under debate. Some studies attribute the scaling behavior to the correlations in the return intervals, or waiting times, between aftershocks or mainshocks. To elucidate a nature of the scaling, we applied specific reshulffling techniques to eliminate correlations between different types of events and then examined how it affects the scaling behavior. We demonstrate that the origin of the scaling behavior observed is the interplay between mainshock waiting time distribution and the structure of clusters of aftershocks, but not correlations in waiting times between the mainshocks and aftershocks themselves. Our findings are corroborated by numerical simulations of a simple model showing a very similar behavior. The mainshocks are modeled by a renewal process with a power-law waiting time distribution between events, and aftershocks follow a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with the rate governed by Omori's law.

Earthquake Education in Prime Time

Science.gov (United States)

de Groot, R.; Abbott, P.; Benthien, M.

2004-12-01

Since 2001, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has collaborated on several video production projects that feature important topics related to earthquake science, engineering, and preparedness. These projects have also fostered many fruitful and sustained partnerships with a variety of organizations that have a stake in hazard education and preparedness. The Seismic Sleuths educational video first appeared in the spring season 2001 on Discovery Channel's Assignment Discovery. Seismic Sleuths is based on a highly successful curriculum package developed jointly by the American Geophysical Union and The Department of Homeland Security Federal Emergency Management Agency. The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) and the Institute for Business and Home Safety supported the video project. Summer Productions, a company with a reputation for quality science programming, produced the Seismic Sleuths program in close partnership with scientists, engineers, and preparedness experts. The program has aired on the National Geographic Channel as recently as Fall 2004. Currently, SCEC is collaborating with Pat Abbott, a geology professor at San Diego State University (SDSU) on the video project Written In Stone: Earthquake Country - Los Angeles. Partners on this project include the California Seismic Safety Commission, SDSU, SCEC, CEA, and the Insurance Information Network of California. This video incorporates live-action demonstrations, vivid animations, and a compelling host (Abbott) to tell the story about earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The Written in Stone team has also developed a comprehensive educator package that includes the video, maps, lesson plans, and other supporting materials. We will present the process that facilitates the creation of visually effective, factually accurate, and entertaining video programs. We acknowledge the need to have a broad understanding of the literature related to communication, media studies, science education, and

A long source area of the 1906 Colombia-Ecuador earthquake estimated from observed tsunami waveforms

Science.gov (United States)

Yamanaka, Yusuke; Tanioka, Yuichiro; Shiina, Takahiro

2017-12-01

The 1906 Colombia-Ecuador earthquake induced both strong seismic motions and a tsunami, the most destructive earthquake in the history of the Colombia-Ecuador subduction zone. The tsunami propagated across the Pacific Ocean, and its waveforms were observed at tide gauge stations in countries including Panama, Japan, and the USA. This study conducted slip inverse analysis for the 1906 earthquake using these waveforms. A digital dataset of observed tsunami waveforms at the Naos Island (Panama) and Honolulu (USA) tide gauge stations, where the tsunami was clearly observed, was first produced by consulting documents. Next, the two waveforms were applied in an inverse analysis as the target waveform. The results of this analysis indicated that the moment magnitude of the 1906 earthquake ranged from 8.3 to 8.6. Moreover, the dominant slip occurred in the northern part of the assumed source region near the coast of Colombia, where little significant seismicity has occurred, rather than in the southern part. The results also indicated that the source area, with significant slip, covered a long distance, including the southern, central, and northern parts of the region.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the Rise and Fall of Earthquake Prediction in China

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Q.; Wang, K.

2009-12-01

Regardless of the future potential of earthquake prediction, it is presently impractical to rely on it to mitigate earthquake disasters. The practical approach is to strengthen the resilience of our built environment to earthquakes based on hazard assessment. But this was not common understanding in China when the M 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake struck the Sichuan Province on 12 May 2008, claiming over 80,000 lives. In China, earthquake prediction is a government-sanctioned and law-regulated measure of disaster prevention. A sudden boom of the earthquake prediction program in 1966-1976 coincided with a succession of nine M > 7 damaging earthquakes in the densely populated region of the country and the political chaos of the Cultural Revolution. It climaxed with the prediction of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, which was due mainly to an unusually pronounced foreshock sequence and the extraordinary readiness of some local officials to issue imminent warning and evacuation order. The Haicheng prediction was a success in practice and yielded useful lessons, but the experience cannot be applied to most other earthquakes and cultural environments. Since the disastrous Tangshan earthquake in 1976 that killed over 240,000 people, there have been two opposite trends in China: decreasing confidence in prediction and increasing emphasis on regulating construction design for earthquake resilience. In 1976, most of the seismic intensity XI areas of Tangshan were literally razed to the ground, but in 2008, many buildings in the intensity XI areas of Wenchuan did not collapse. Prediction did not save life in either of these events; the difference was made by construction standards. For regular buildings, there was no seismic design in Tangshan to resist any earthquake shaking in 1976, but limited seismic design was required for the Wenchuan area in 2008. Although the construction standards were later recognized to be too low, those buildings that met the standards suffered much less

Aftershocks of the 13 May 1993 Shumagin Alaska earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Zhong; Wyss, Max; Tytgat, Guy; McNutt, Steve; Stihler, Scott

1994-01-01

The 13 May 1993 Ms 6.9 Shumagin earthquake had an aftershock sequence of 247 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than or equal to 1.5 by 1 June 1993. Of these aftershocks, 79 were located by using S-P travel times at the only two stations within 570 km of the mainshock epicenter. The rupture area inferred from the aftershocks is about 600 km2 and we estimate for the mainshock a mean fault displacement of 1.0 m and a 28 bar stress drop. The magnitude-frequency plots give a b-value for the aftershock sequence of about 0.4, which is low compared to the background value of approximately 0.8. The decay of the aftershock sequence followed the modified Omori law with a p-value of 0.79, which is also lower than the typical values of about 1.1 observed in Alaska. Both of these facts can be interpreted as indicating relatively high ambient stress in the Shumagin seismic gap and the possibility that the 13 May earthquake was a foreshock to a larger gap-filling event to occur within the next few years.

Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring with Spatio-Temporal Fields

Science.gov (United States)

Whittier, J. C.; Nittel, S.; Subasinghe, I.

2017-10-01

With live streaming sensors and sensor networks, increasingly large numbers of individual sensors are deployed in physical space. Sensor data streams are a fundamentally novel mechanism to deliver observations to information systems. They enable us to represent spatio-temporal continuous phenomena such as radiation accidents, toxic plumes, or earthquakes almost as instantaneously as they happen in the real world. Sensor data streams discretely sample an earthquake, while the earthquake is continuous over space and time. Programmers attempting to integrate many streams to analyze earthquake activity and scope need to write code to integrate potentially very large sets of asynchronously sampled, concurrent streams in tedious application code. In previous work, we proposed the field stream data model (Liang et al., 2016) for data stream engines. Abstracting the stream of an individual sensor as a temporal field, the field represents the Earth's movement at the sensor position as continuous. This simplifies analysis across many sensors significantly. In this paper, we undertake a feasibility study of using the field stream model and the open source Data Stream Engine (DSE) Apache Spark(Apache Spark, 2017) to implement a real-time earthquake event detection with a subset of the 250 GPS sensor data streams of the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN). The field-based real-time stream queries compute maximum displacement values over the latest query window of each stream, and related spatially neighboring streams to identify earthquake events and their extent. Further, we correlated the detected events with an USGS earthquake event feed. The query results are visualized in real-time.

Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the earthquake background rate

Science.gov (United States)

Van Der Elst, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Aftershocks often occur within cascades of triggered seismicity in which each generation of aftershocks triggers an additional generation, and so on. The rate of earthquakes in any particular generation follows Omori's law, going approximately as 1/t. This function decays rapidly, but is heavy-tailed, and aftershock sequences may persist for long times at a rate that is difficult to discriminate from background. It is likely that some apparently spontaneous earthquakes in the observational catalogue are orphaned aftershocks of long-past main shocks. To assess the relative proportion of orphaned aftershocks in the apparent background rate, I develop an extension of the ETAS model that explicitly includes the expected contribution of orphaned aftershocks to the apparent background rate. Applying this model to California, I find that the apparent background rate can be almost entirely attributed to orphaned aftershocks, depending on the assumed duration of an aftershock sequence. This implies an earthquake cascade with a branching ratio (the average number of directly triggered aftershocks per main shock) of nearly unity. In physical terms, this implies that very few earthquakes are completely isolated from the perturbing effects of other earthquakes within the fault system. Accounting for orphaned aftershocks in the ETAS model gives more accurate estimates of the true background rate, and more realistic expectations for long-term seismicity patterns.

Roaming earthquakes in China highlight midcontinental hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Mian; Wang, Hui

2012-11-01

Before dawn on 28 July 1976, a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake struck Tangshan, a Chinese industrial city only 150 kilometers from Beijing (Figure 1a). In a brief moment, the earthquake destroyed the entire city and killed more than 242,000 people [Chen et al., 1988]. More than 30 years have passed, and upon the ruins a new Tangshan city has been built. However, the memory of devastation remains fresh. For this reason, a sequence of recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region, including an M 4.8 event on 28 May and an M 4.0 event on 18 June 2012, has caused widespread concerns and heated debate in China. In the science community, the debate is whether the recent Tangshan earthquakes are the aftershocks of the 1976 earthquake despite the long gap in time since the main shock or harbingers of a new period of active seismicity in Tangshan and the rest of North China, where seismic activity seems to fluctuate between highs and lows over periods of a few decades [Ma, 1989].

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-07-15

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Earthquake Preparedness and Education: A Collective Impact Approach to Improving Awareness and Resiliency

Science.gov (United States)

Benthien, M. L.; Wood, M. M.; Ballmann, J. E.; DeGroot, R. M.

2017-12-01

The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), headquartered at the University of Southern California, is a collaboration of more than 1000 scientists and students from 70+ institutions. SCEC's Communication, Education, and Outreach (CEO) program translates earthquake science into products and activities in order to increase scientific literacy, develop a diverse scientific workforce, and reduce earthquake risk to life and property. SCEC CEO staff coordinate these efforts through partnership collaborations it has established to engage subject matter experts, reduce duplication of effort, and achieve greater results. Several of SCEC's collaborative networks began within Southern California and have since grown statewide (Earthquake Country Alliance, a public-private-grassroots partnership), national ("EPIcenter" Network of museums, parks, libraries, etc.), and international (Great ShakeOut Earthquake Drills with millions of participants each year). These networks have benefitted greatly from partnerships with national (FEMA), state, and local emergency managers. Other activities leverage SCEC's networks in new ways and with national earth science organizations, such as the EarthConnections Program (with IRIS, NAGT, and many others), Quake Catcher Network (with IRIS) and the GeoHazards Messaging Collaboratory (with IRIS, UNAVCO, and USGS). Each of these partnerships share a commitment to service, collaborative development, and the application of research (including social science theory for motivating preparedness behaviors). SCEC CEO is developing new evaluative structures and adapting the Collective Impact framework to better understand what has worked well or what can be improved, according to the framework's five key elements: create a common agenda; share common indicators and measurement; engage diverse stakeholders to coordinate mutually reinforcing activities; initiate continuous communication; and provide "backbone" support. This presentation will provide

A non-accelerating foreshock sequence followed by a short period of quiescence for a large inland earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Doi, I.; Kawakata, H.

2012-12-01

Laboratory experiments [e.g. Scholz, 1968; Lockner et al., 1992] and field observations [e.g. Dodge et al., 1996; Helmstetter and Sornette, 2003; Bouchon et al., 2011] have elucidated part of foreshock behavior and mechanism, but we cannot identify foreshocks while they are occurring. Recently, in Japan, a dense seismic network, Hi-net (High Sensitivity Seismograph Network), provides continuous waveform records for regional seismic events. The data from this network enable us to analyze small foreshocks which occur on long period time scales prior to a major event. We have an opportunity to grasp the more detailed pattern of foreshock generation. Using continuous waveforms recorded at a seismic station located in close proximity to the epicenter of the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi inland earthquake, we conducted a detailed investigation of its foreshocks. In addition to the two officially recognized foreshocks, calculation of cross-correlation coefficients between the continuous waveform record and one of the previously recognized foreshocks revealed that 20 micro foreshocks occurred within the same general area. Our analysis also shows that all of these foreshocks occurred within the same general area relative to the main event. Over the two week period leading up to the Iwate-Miyagi earthquake, such foreshocks only occurred during the last 45 minutes, specifically over a 35 minute period followed by a 10 minute period of quiescence just before the mainshock. We found no evidence of acceleration of this foreshock sequence. Rock fracturing experiments using a constant loading rate or creep tests have consistently shown that the occurrence rate of small fracturing events (acoustic emissions; AEs) increases before the main rupture [Scholz, 1968]. This accelerative pattern of preceding events was recognized in case of the 1999 Izmit earthquake [Bouchon et al., 2011]. Large earthquakes however need not be accompanied by acceleration of foreshocks if a given fault's host rock

Preliminary report on aftershock sequence for earthquake of January 31, 1986, near Painesville, Ohio (time period: 2/1/86-2/10/86)

Science.gov (United States)

Borcherdt, R.D.

1986-01-01

A ten-station array of broad-band digital instrumentation (GEOS) was deployed by the U. S. Geological Survey with partial support provided by Electric Power Research Institute to record the aftershock sequence of the moderate (mb ~ 4.9) earthquake that occurred on January 31, 1986 (16:46:43 UTC) near Painesville, Ohio. The occurrence of the event has raised questions concerning possible contributory factors to the occurrence of the event and questions concerning the character of earthquake-induced high-frequency ground motions in the area. To aid in the timely resolution of the implications of some of these questions, this preliminary report provides copies of the ground motion time-histories and corresponding spectra for the six identified aftershocks and two events, thought to be quarry blasts, recorded as of February 10, 1986. Recording station locations and epicenter locations based on two preliminary estimates of local seismic velocity structure are provided.

Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

OpenAIRE

Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

2016-01-01

Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

High precision relocation of earthquakes at Iliamna Volcano, Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Statz-Boyer, P.; Thurber, C.; Pesicek, J.; Prejean, S.

2009-01-01

In August 1996, a period of elevated seismicity commenced beneath Iliamna Volcano, Alaska. This activity lasted until early 1997, consisted of over 3000 earthquakes, and was accompanied by elevated emissions of volcanic gases. No eruption occurred and seismicity returned to background levels where it has remained since. We use waveform alignment with bispectrum-verified cross-correlation and double-difference methods to relocate over 2000 earthquakes from 1996 to 2005 with high precision (~ 100??m). The results of this analysis greatly clarify the distribution of seismic activity, revealing distinct features previously hidden by location scatter. A set of linear earthquake clusters diverges upward and southward from the main group of earthquakes. The events in these linear clusters show a clear southward migration with time. We suggest that these earthquakes represent either a response to degassing of the magma body, circulation of fluids due to exsolution from magma or heating of ground water, or possibly the intrusion of new dikes beneath Iliamna's southern flank. In addition, we speculate that the deeper, somewhat diffuse cluster of seismicity near and south of Iliamna's summit indicates the presence of an underlying magma body between about 2 and 4??km depth below sea level, based on similar features found previously at several other Alaskan volcanoes. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Spatial organization of foreshocks as a tool to forecast large earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Lippiello, E; Marzocchi, W; de Arcangelis, L; Godano, C

2012-01-01

An increase in the number of smaller magnitude events, retrospectively named foreshocks, is often observed before large earthquakes. We show that the linear density probability of earthquakes occurring before and after small or intermediate mainshocks displays a symmetrical behavior, indicating that the size of the area fractured during the mainshock is encoded in the foreshock spatial organization. This observation can be used to discriminate spatial clustering due to foreshocks from the one induced by aftershocks and is implemented in an alarm-based model to forecast m > 6 earthquakes. A retrospective study of the last 19 years Southern California catalog shows that the daily occurrence probability presents isolated peaks closely located in time and space to the epicenters of five of the six m > 6 earthquakes. We find daily probabilities as high as 25% (in cells of size 0.04 × 0.04deg(2)), with significant probability gains with respect to standard models.

Stratigraphic and microfossil evidence for a 4500-year history of Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes and tsunamis at Yaquina River estuary, Oregon, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Graehl, Nicholas A; Kelsey, Harvey M.; Witter, Robert C.; Hemphill-Haley, Eileen; Engelhart, Simon E.

2015-01-01

The Sallys Bend swamp and marsh area on the central Oregon coast onshore of the Cascadia subduction zone contains a sequence of buried coastal wetland soils that extends back ∼4500 yr B.P. The upper 10 of the 12 soils are represented in multiple cores. Each soil is abruptly overlain by a sandy deposit and then, in most cases, by greater than 10 cm of mud. For eight of the 10 buried soils, times of soil burial are constrained through radiocarbon ages on fine, delicate detritus from the top of the buried soil; for two of the buried soils, diatom and foraminifera data constrain paleoenvironment at the time of soil burial.We infer that each buried soil represents a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake because the soils are laterally extensive and abruptly overlain by sandy deposits and mud. Preservation of coseismically buried soils occurred from 4500 yr ago until ∼500–600 yr ago, after which preservation was compromised by cessation of gradual relative sea-level rise, which in turn precluded drowning of marsh soils during instances of coseismic subsidence. Based on grain-size and microfossil data, sandy deposits overlying buried soils accumulated immediately after a subduction zone earthquake, during tsunami incursion into Sallys Bend. The possibility that the sandy deposits were sourced directly from landslides triggered upstream in the Yaquina River basin by seismic shaking was discounted based on sedimentologic, microfossil, and depositional site characteristics of the sandy deposits, which were inconsistent with a fluvial origin. Biostratigraphic analyses of sediment above two buried soils—in the case of two earthquakes, one occurring shortly after 1541–1708 cal. yr B.P. and the other occurring shortly after 3227–3444 cal. yr B.P.—provide estimates that coseismic subsidence was a minimum of 0.4 m. The average recurrence interval of subduction zone earthquakes is 420–580 yr, based on an ∼3750–4050-yr-long record and seven to nine interearthquake

Earthquake Scenario-Based Tsunami Wave Heights in the Eastern Mediterranean and Connected Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Necmioglu, Ocal; Özel, Nurcan Meral

2015-12-01

We identified a set of tsunami scenario input parameters in a 0.5° × 0.5° uniformly gridded area in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean (both for shallow- and intermediate-depth earthquakes) and Black Seas (only shallow earthquakes) and calculated tsunami scenarios using the SWAN-Joint Research Centre (SWAN-JRC) code ( Mader 2004; Annunziato 2007) with 2-arcmin resolution bathymetry data for the range of 6.5—Mwmax with an Mw increment of 0.1 at each grid in order to realize a comprehensive analysis of tsunami wave heights from earthquakes originating in the region. We defined characteristic earthquake source parameters from a compiled set of sources such as existing moment tensor catalogues and various reference studies, together with the Mwmax assigned in the literature, where possible. Results from 2,415 scenarios show that in the Eastern Mediterranean and its connected seas (Aegean and Black Sea), shallow earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6.5 may result in coastal wave heights of 0.5 m, whereas the same wave height would be expected only from intermediate-depth earthquakes with Mw ≥ 7.0 . The distribution of maximum wave heights calculated indicate that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m could be expected in the northern Aegean, whereas in the Black Sea, Cyprus, Levantine coasts, northern Libya, eastern Sicily, southern Italy, and western Greece, up to 3-m wave height could be possible. Crete, the southern Aegean, and the area between northeast Libya and Alexandria (Egypt) is prone to maximum tsunami wave heights of >3 m. Considering that calculations are performed at a minimum bathymetry depth of 20 m, these wave heights may, according to Green's Law, be amplified by a factor of 2 at the coastline. The study can provide a basis for detailed tsunami hazard studies in the region.

Reappraisal of the seismotectonics of southern Ontario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohajer, A.A.

1987-11-01

The fundamental objectives of this study were to review and improve the seismological data base as an aid in more realistic evaluation of seismic hazard in southern Ontario. For this purpose, the following procedures have been undertaken: In the first stage, the types of errors in earthquake location files are identified, sources of uncertainties are discussed and a sensitivity analysis of the errors to different parameters is presented. In the second stage, a group location technique, Joint Hypocenter Determination (JHD), has been utilized to improve the locations of a group of 67 well-recorded events, mostly from the more active region near the Ottawa River and in western Quebec. The third stage, to relocate smaller and less reliably detected events in southern Ontario, utilized a nw algorithm, 'HYPOCENTER', which proved very efficient and flexible in the test runs for handling local explosion and natural events. A preliminary interpretation of the seismicity patterns in the study regions shows that earthquakes of magnitude 3 and larger tend to align along preferred seismic trends which may, in turn, be controlled by weakness planes in the Earth's crust. These inferred trends coincide with dominant northwesterly and northeasterly striking structural directions. For earthquakes smaller than magnitude 4 prior to 1970 and for microearthquakes (M<3) which occurred near the Lake Ontario shoreline, the detection coverage was not sufficient to conclusively discuss accurate locations and causative mechanisms

A rare moderate‐sized (Mw 4.9) earthquake in Kansas: Rupture process of the Milan, Kansas, earthquake of 12 November 2014 and its relationship to fluid injection

Science.gov (United States)

Choy, George; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Yeck, William; McNamara, Daniel E.; Mueller, Charles; Boyd, Oliver

2016-01-01

The largest recorded earthquake in Kansas occurred northeast of Milan on 12 November 2014 (Mw 4.9) in a region previously devoid of significant seismic activity. Applying multistation processing to data from local stations, we are able to detail the rupture process and rupture geometry of the mainshock, identify the causative fault plane, and delineate the expansion and extent of the subsequent seismic activity. The earthquake followed rapid increases of fluid injection by multiple wastewater injection wells in the vicinity of the fault. The source parameters and behavior of the Milan earthquake and foreshock–aftershock sequence are similar to characteristics of other earthquakes induced by wastewater injection into permeable formations overlying crystalline basement. This earthquake also provides an opportunity to test the empirical relation that uses felt area to estimate moment magnitude for historical earthquakes for Kansas.

Teleseismic analysis of the 1990 and 1991 earthquakes near Potenza

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Ekstrom

1994-06-01

Full Text Available Analysis of the available teleseismic data for two moderate earthquakes near the town of Potenza in the Southern Apennines shows that both involve strike-slip faulting on a plane oriented approximately east-west. Only the larger, 5 May 1990, earthquake is sufficiently large for analysis by conventional teleseismic waveform inversion methods, and is seen to consist of a foreshock followed 11 seconds later by the main release of moment. The focal mechanism and seismic moment of the 26 May 1991 earthquake is determined by quantitative comparison of its 15-60 s period surface waves with those generated by the 5 May 1990 event. The focal mechanisms for the two events are found to be very similar. The 1991 earthquake has a scalar moment that is approximately 18% that of the 1990 mainshock. Comparison of higher frequency P waves for the two events, recorded at regional distance, shows that the ratio of trace amplitudes is smaller than the ratio of scalar moments, suggesting that the stress drop for the 1991 event is distinctly smaller than for the 1990 mainshock.

Constraining the magnitude of the largest event in a foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequence

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Shcherbakov, Robert; Zhuang, Jiancang; Ogata, Yosihiko

2018-01-01

Extreme value statistics and Bayesian methods are used to constrain the magnitudes of the largest expected earthquakes in a sequence governed by the parametric time-dependent occurrence rate and frequency-magnitude statistics. The Bayesian predictive distribution for the magnitude of the largest event in a sequence is derived. Two types of sequences are considered, that is, the classical aftershock sequences generated by large main shocks and the aftershocks generated by large foreshocks preceding a main shock. For the former sequences, the early aftershocks during a training time interval are used to constrain the magnitude of the future extreme event during the forecasting time interval. For the latter sequences, the earthquakes preceding the main shock are used to constrain the magnitudes of the subsequent extreme events including the main shock. The analysis is applied retrospectively to past prominent earthquake sequences.

Multifractal Omori law for earthquake triggering: new tests on the California, Japan and worldwide catalogues

Science.gov (United States)

Ouillon, G.; Sornette, D.; Ribeiro, E.

2009-07-01

The Multifractal Stress-Activated model is a statistical model of triggered seismicity based on mechanical and thermodynamic principles. It predicts that, above a triggering magnitude cut-off M0, the exponent p of the Omori law for the time decay of the rate of aftershocks is a linear increasing function p(M) = a0M + b0 of the main shock magnitude M. We previously reported empirical support for this prediction, using the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) catalogue. Here, we confirm this observation using an updated, longer version of the same catalogue, as well as new methods to estimate p. One of this methods is the newly defined Scaling Function Analysis (SFA), adapted from the wavelet transform. This method is able to measure a mathematical singularity (hence a p-value), erasing the possible regular part of a time-series. The SFA also proves particularly efficient to reveal the coexistence and superposition of several types of relaxation laws (typical Omori sequences and short-lived swarms sequences) which can be mixed within the same catalogue. Another new method consists in monitoring the largest aftershock magnitude observed in successive time intervals, and thus shortcuts the problem of missing events with small magnitudes in aftershock catalogues. The same methods are used on data from the worldwide Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogue and show results compatible with those of Southern California. For the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalogue, we still observe a linear dependence of p on M, but with a smaller slope. The SFA shows however that results for this catalogue may be biased by numerous swarm sequences, despite our efforts to remove them before the analysis.

Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Babayev

2010-12-01

Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

Outline of geophysical investigations on the great earthquake in the south-west Japan on Dec. 21, 1946

Science.gov (United States)

Nagata, Takeshi

1947-01-01

In in the early morning of Dec. 21, 1946, a great destructive earthquake occurred in southern-western Japan. According to the seismogram obtained in our university, the earthquake motion began at Tokyo from 4 h 20 m 10.4 s on Dec. 21, 1946. The maximum amplitude of NS, EW, and up-down components of the earthquake motion at Tokyo was 12.0 mm, 14.0 mm and 3.0 mm respectively, while the initial motion was composed of 80 μ south, 67 μ west and 20 μ down movements.

Paleoseismology of the Southern Section of the Black Mountains and Southern Death Valley Fault Zones, Death Valley, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sohn, Marsha S.; Knott, Jeffrey R.; Mahan, Shannon

2014-01-01

The Death Valley Fault System (DVFS) is part of the southern Walker Lane–eastern California shear zone. The normal Black Mountains Fault Zone (BMFZ) and the right-lateral Southern Death Valley Fault Zone (SDVFZ) are two components of the DVFS. Estimates of late Pleistocene-Holocene slip rates and recurrence intervals for these two fault zones are uncertain owing to poor relative age control. The BMFZ southernmost section (Section 1W) steps basinward and preserves multiple scarps in the Quaternary alluvial fans. We present optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates ranging from 27 to 4 ka of fluvial and eolian sand lenses interbedded with alluvial-fan deposits offset by the BMFZ. By cross-cutting relations, we infer that there were three separate ground-rupturing earthquakes on BMFZ Section 1W with vertical displacement between 5.5 m and 2.75 m. The slip-rate estimate is ∼0.2 to 1.8 mm/yr, with an earthquake recurrence interval of 4,500 to 2,000 years. Slip-per-event measurements indicate Mw 7.0 to 7.2 earthquakes. The 27–4-ka OSL-dated alluvial fans also overlie the putative Cinder Hill tephra layer. Cinder Hill is offset ∼213 m by SDVFZ, which yields a tentative slip rate of 1 to 8 mm/yr for the SDVFZ.

The Landers earthquake; preliminary instrumental results

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, L.; Mori, J.; Hauksson, E.

1992-01-01

Early on the morning of June 28, 1992, millions of people in southern California were awakened by the largest earthquake to occur in the western United States in the past 40 yrs. At 4:58 a.m PDT (local time), faulting associated with the magnitude 7.3 earthquake broke through to earth's surface near the town of Landers, California. the surface rupture then propagated 70km (45 mi) to the north and northwest along a band of faults passing through the middle of the Mojave Desert. Fortunately, the strongest shaking occurred in uninhabited regions of the Mojave Desert. Still one child was killed in Yucca Valley, and about 400 people were injured in the surrounding area. the desert communities of Landers, Yucca Valley, and Joshua Tree in San Bernardino Country suffered considerable damage to buildings and roads. Damage to water and power lines caused problems in many areas. 

Earthquake activity along the Himalayan orogenic belt

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, L.; Mori, J. J.

2017-12-01

The collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates formed the Himalayas, the largest orogenic belt on the Earth. The entire region accommodates shallow earthquakes, while intermediate-depth earthquakes are concentrated at the eastern and western Himalayan syntaxis. Here we investigate the focal depths, fault plane solutions, and source rupture process for three earthquake sequences, which are located at the western, central and eastern regions of the Himalayan orogenic belt. The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is located at the western Himalayan syntaxis and is characterized by extreme shortening of the upper crust and strong interaction of various layers of the lithosphere. Many shallow earthquakes occur on the Main Pamir Thrust at focal depths shallower than 20 km, while intermediate-deep earthquakes are mostly located below 75 km. Large intermediate-depth earthquakes occur frequently at the western Himalayan syntaxis about every 10 years on average. The 2015 Nepal earthquake is located in the central Himalayas. It is a typical megathrust earthquake that occurred on the shallow portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). Many of the aftershocks are located above the MHT and illuminate faulting structures in the hanging wall with dip angles that are steeper than the MHT. These observations provide new constraints on the collision and uplift processes for the Himalaya orogenic belt. The Indo-Burma region is located south of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis, where the strike of the plate boundary suddenly changes from nearly east-west at the Himalayas to nearly north-south at the Burma Arc. The Burma arc subduction zone is a typical oblique plate convergence zone. The eastern boundary is the north-south striking dextral Sagaing fault, which hosts many shallow earthquakes with focal depth less than 25 km. In contrast, intermediate-depth earthquakes along the subduction zone reflect east-west trending reverse faulting.

The smart cluster method. Adaptive earthquake cluster identification and analysis in strong seismic regions

Science.gov (United States)

Schaefer, Andreas M.; Daniell, James E.; Wenzel, Friedemann

2017-07-01

Earthquake clustering is an essential part of almost any statistical analysis of spatial and temporal properties of seismic activity. The nature of earthquake clusters and subsequent declustering of earthquake catalogues plays a crucial role in determining the magnitude-dependent earthquake return period and its respective spatial variation for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. This study introduces the Smart Cluster Method (SCM), a new methodology to identify earthquake clusters, which uses an adaptive point process for spatio-temporal cluster identification. It utilises the magnitude-dependent spatio-temporal earthquake density to adjust the search properties, subsequently analyses the identified clusters to determine directional variation and adjusts its search space with respect to directional properties. In the case of rapid subsequent ruptures like the 1992 Landers sequence or the 2010-2011 Darfield-Christchurch sequence, a reclassification procedure is applied to disassemble subsequent ruptures using near-field searches, nearest neighbour classification and temporal splitting. The method is capable of identifying and classifying earthquake clusters in space and time. It has been tested and validated using earthquake data from California and New Zealand. A total of more than 1500 clusters have been found in both regions since 1980 with M m i n = 2.0. Utilising the knowledge of cluster classification, the method has been adjusted to provide an earthquake declustering algorithm, which has been compared to existing methods. Its performance is comparable to established methodologies. The analysis of earthquake clustering statistics lead to various new and updated correlation functions, e.g. for ratios between mainshock and strongest aftershock and general aftershock activity metrics.

Long-Delayed Aftershocks in New Zealand and the 2016 M7.8 Kaikoura Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Shebalin, P.; Baranov, S.

2017-10-01

We study aftershock sequences of six major earthquakes in New Zealand, including the 2016 M7.8 Kaikaoura and 2016 M7.1 North Island earthquakes. For Kaikaoura earthquake, we assess the expected number of long-delayed large aftershocks of M5+ and M5.5+ in two periods, 0.5 and 3 years after the main shocks, using 75 days of available data. We compare results with obtained for other sequences using same 75-days period. We estimate the errors by considering a set of magnitude thresholds and corresponding periods of data completeness and consistency. To avoid overestimation of the expected rates of large aftershocks, we presume a break of slope of the magnitude-frequency relation in the aftershock sequences, and compare two models, with and without the break of slope. Comparing estimations to the actual number of long-delayed large aftershocks, we observe, in general, a significant underestimation of their expected number. We can suppose that the long-delayed aftershocks may reflect larger-scale processes, including interaction of faults, that complement an isolated relaxation process. In the spirit of this hypothesis, we search for symptoms of the capacity of the aftershock zone to generate large events months after the major earthquake. We adapt an algorithm EAST, studying statistics of early aftershocks, to the case of secondary aftershocks within aftershock sequences of major earthquakes. In retrospective application to the considered cases, the algorithm demonstrates an ability to detect in advance long-delayed aftershocks both in time and space domains. Application of the EAST algorithm to the 2016 M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake zone indicates that the most likely area for a delayed aftershock of M5.5+ or M6+ is at the northern end of the zone in Cook Strait.

Geological Identification of Seismic Source at Opak Fault Based on Stratigraphic Sections of the Southern Mountains

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Hita Pandita

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Earthquake is one of the unpredicted natural disasters on our earth. Despite of the absence of high-accuracy method to precisely predict the occurrence of earthquake, numerous studies have been carried out by seismologists to find it. One of the efforts to address the vulnerability of a region to earthquakes is by recognizing the type of rock as the source of the earthquake. Opak Fault is an active fault which was thought to be the source of earthquakes in Yogyakarta and adjacent areas. This study aimed to determine the seismic source types of rocks in Yogyakarta and adjacent areas. The methods were by measuring stratigraphic sections and the layer thickness in the western part of Southern Mountains. Field study was done in 6 (six research sites. Results of stratigraphic measurement indicated the sedimentary rocks in the Southern Mountains was 3.823 km in thick, while the bedrock was more than 1.042 km in thick. Based on the result, the rock types as the seismic source were thought to originate from the continental crust rocks formed of granite and metamorphic complex.

THE MAY 23TH 2007 GULF OF MEXICO EARTHQUAKE

Science.gov (United States)

Yamamoto, J.; Jimenez, Z.

2009-12-01

On the 23th of May 2007 at 14:09 local time (19:09 UT) an insolated earthquake of local magnitude 5.2 occurred offshore northern Veracruz in the Gulf of Mexico. The seismic focus was located using local and regional data at 20.11° N, 97.38° W and 7.8 km depth at 175 km distance from Tuxpan a city of 134,394 inhabitants. The earthquake was widely felt along the costal states of southern Tamaulipas and Veracruz in which several schools and public buildings were evacuated. Neither Laguna Verde nuclear plant, located approximately 245 km from the epicenter, nor PEMEX petroleum company reported damage. First-motion data indicates that the rupture occurred as strike slip faulting along two possible planes, one oriented roughly north-south and the other east-west. In the present paper a global analysis of the earthquake is made to elucidate its origin and possible correlation with known geotectonic features of the region.

Performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems during the Major Events of the 2016-2017 Central Italy Seismic Sequence.

Science.gov (United States)

Festa, G.; Picozzi, M.; Alessandro, C.; Colombelli, S.; Cattaneo, M.; Chiaraluce, L.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.; Marzorati, S.; Supino, M.; Zollo, A.

2017-12-01

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are systems nowadays contributing to the seismic risk mitigation actions, both in terms of losses and societal resilience, by issuing an alert promptly after the earthquake origin and before the ground shaking impacts the targets to be protected. EEWS systems can be grouped in two main classes: network based and stand-alone systems. Network based EEWS make use of dense seismic networks surrounding the fault (e.g. Near Fault Observatory; NFO) generating the event. The rapid processing of the P-wave early portion allows for the location and magnitude estimation of the event then used to predict the shaking through ground motion prediction equations. Stand-alone systems instead analyze the early P-wave signal to predict the ground shaking carried by the late S or surface waves, through empirically calibrated scaling relationships, at the recording site itself. We compared the network-based (PRESTo, PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem, www.prestoews.org, Satriano et al., 2011) and the stand-alone (SAVE, on-Site-Alert-leVEl, Caruso et al., 2017) systems, by analyzing their performance during the 2016-2017 Central Italy sequence. We analyzed 9 earthquakes having magnitude 5.0 security actions. PRESTo also evaluated the accuracy of location and magnitude. Both systems well predict the ground shaking nearby the event source, with a success rate around 90% within the potential damage zone. The lead-time is significantly larger for the network based system, increasing to more than 10s at 40 km from the event epicentre. The stand-alone system better performs in the near-source region showing a positive albeit small lead-time (operational in Italy, based on the available acceleration networks, by improving the capability of reducing the lead-time related to data telemetry.

Time Separation Between Events in a Sequence: a Regional Property?

Science.gov (United States)

Muirwood, R.; Fitzenz, D. D.

2013-12-01

Earthquake sequences are loosely defined as events occurring too closely in time and space to appear unrelated. Depending on the declustering method, several, all, or no event(s) after the first large event might be recognized as independent mainshocks. It can therefore be argued that a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA, traditionally dealing with mainshocks only) might already include the ground shaking effects of such sequences. Alternatively all but the largest event could be classified as an ';aftershock' and removed from the earthquake catalog. While in PSHA the question is only whether to keep or remove the events from the catalog, for Risk Management purposes, the community response to the earthquakes, as well as insurance risk transfer mechanisms, can be profoundly affected by the actual timing of events in such a sequence. In particular the repetition of damaging earthquakes over a period of weeks to months can lead to businesses closing and families evacuating from the region (as happened in Christchurch, New Zealand in 2011). Buildings that are damaged in the first earthquake may go on to be damaged again, even while they are being repaired. Insurance also functions around a set of critical timeframes - including the definition of a single 'event loss' for reinsurance recoveries within the 192 hour ';hours clause', the 6-18 month pace at which insurance claims are settled, and the annual renewal of insurance and reinsurance contracts. We show how temporal aspects of earthquake sequences need to be taken into account within models for Risk Management, and what time separation between events are most sensitive, both in terms of the modeled disruptions to lifelines and business activity as well as in the losses to different parties (such as insureds, insurers and reinsurers). We also explore the time separation between all events and between loss causing events for a collection of sequences from across the world and we point to the need to

From Multi-Sensors Observations Towards Cross-Disciplinary Study of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What have We Learned from the Tohoku Earthquake?

Science.gov (United States)

Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Papadopoulos, G.; Kunitsyn, V.; Nesterov, I.; Hayakawa, M.; Mogi, K.; Hattori, K.; Kafatos, M.; Taylor, P.

2012-01-01

The lessons we have learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) how this knowledge will affect our future observation and analysis is the main focus of this presentation.We present multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. These observations revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to theM9.0 Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011, which indicates s new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere, as related to underlying tectonic activity. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004). For the Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows a synergy between several independent observations characterizing the state of the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes, namely: (i) Foreshock sequence change (rate, space and time); (ii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; and (iii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations. We are presenting a cross-disciplinary analysis of the observed pre-earthquake anomalies and will discuss current research in the detection of these signals in Japan. We expect that our analysis will shed light on the underlying physics of pre-earthquake signals associated with some of the largest earthquake events

Along-strike Variations in the Himalayas Illuminated by the Aftershock Sequence of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake Using the NAMASTE Local Seismic Network

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza, M.; Ghosh, A.; Karplus, M. S.; Nabelek, J.; Sapkota, S. N.; Adhikari, L. B.; Klemperer, S. L.; Velasco, A. A.

2016-12-01

As a result of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, more than 8,000 people were killed from a combination of infrastructure failure and triggered landslides. This earthquake produced 4 m of peak co-seismic slip as the fault ruptured 130 km east under densely populated cities, such as Kathmandu. To understand earthquake dynamics in this part of the Himalayas and help mitigate similar future calamities by the next destructive event, it is imperative to study earthquake activities in detail and improve our understanding of the source and structural complexities. In response to the Gorkha event, multiple institutions developed and deployed a 10-month long dense seismic network called NAMASTE. It blanketed a 27,650 km2 area, mainly covering the rupture area of the Gorkha earthquake, in order to capture the dynamic sequence of aftershock behavior. The network consisted of a mix of 45 broadband, short-period, and strong motion sensors, with an average spacing of 20 km. From the first 6 months of data, starting approximately 1.5 after the mainshock, we develop a robust catalog containing over 3,000 precise earthquake locations, and local magnitudes that range between 0.3 and 4.9. The catalog has a magnitude of completeness of 1.5, and an overall low b-value of 0.78. Using the HypoDD algorithm, we relocate earthquake hypocenters with high precision, and thus illustrate the fault geometry down to depths of 25 km where we infer the location of the gently-dipping Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). Above the MFT, the aftershocks illuminate complex structure produced by relatively steeply dipping faults. Interestingly, we observe sharp along-strike change in the seismicity pattern. The eastern part of the aftershock area is significantly more active than the western part. The change in seismicity may reflect structural and/or frictional lateral heterogeneity in this part of the Himalayan fault system. Such along-strike variations play an important role in rupture complexities and

Space-time behavior of continental intraplate earthquakes and implications for hazard assessment in China and the Central U.S.

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian; Luo, Gang; Wang, Hui

2014-05-01

Earthquakes in midcontinents and those at plate boundaries behave quite differently in space and time, owing to the geometry of faults and the rate at which they are loaded. Faults at plate boundaries are loaded at constant rates by steady relative plate motion. Consequently, earthquakes concentrate along the plate boundary faults, and show quasi-periodic occurrences, although the actual temporal patterns are often complicated. However, in midcontinents, the tectonic loading is shared by a complex system of interacting faults spread over a large region, such that a large earthquake on one fault could increase the loading rates on remote faults in the system. Because the low tectonic loading rate is shared by many faults in midcontinents, individual faults may remain dormant for a long time and then become active for a short period. The resulting earthquakes are therefore episodic and spatially migrating. These effects can be seen in many areas, with a prime example being a 2000-year record from North China, which shows migration of large earthquakes between fault systems spread over a large region such that no large earthquakes rupture the same fault segment twice. Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer, because aftershock sequences often last much longer in midcontinents where tectonic loading is slow, than at plate boundaries. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake. Similarly, current seismicity in the New Madrid seismic zone in central U.S. appears to be aftershocks of a cluster of M ~7.0 events in 1811-1812. These large events and similar events in the past millennium release strain

Non-Stationary Modelling and Simulation of Near-Source Earthquake Ground Motion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.

1997-01-01

This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modeling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake in California (U .S .A.). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can successfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....

Non-Stationary Modelling and Simulation of Near-Source Earthquake Ground Motion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skjærbæk, P. S.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Fouskitakis, G. N.

This paper is concerned with modelling and simulation of near-source earthquake ground motion. Recent studies have revealed that these motions show heavy non-stationary behaviour with very low frequencies dominating parts of the earthquake sequence. Modelling and simulation of this behaviour...... by an epicentral distance of 16 km and measured during the 1979 Imperial valley earthquake in California (USA). The results of the study indicate that while all three approaches can succesfully predict near-source ground motions, the Neural Network based one gives somewhat poorer simulation results....

Earthquake Tests of Reinforced Concrete Frames

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skjærbæk, P. S.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

1997-01-01

the equilibrium state. Afterwards the test structure is subjected to the three strong ground motion oscillations where the two first sequences are followed by a free decay test. No free decay test was performed after the third earthquake due to collapse of the test structure during the third strong motion...

Earthquake Tests of Reinforced Concrete Frames

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skjærbæk, P. S.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

1996-01-01

the equilibrium state. Afterwards the test structure is subjected to the three strong ground motion oscillations where the two first sequences are followed by a free decay test. No free decay test was performed after the third earthquake due to collapse of the test structure during the third strong motion...

[Comment on “Should Memphis build for California's earthquakes?”] from S.E. Hough

Science.gov (United States)

Hough, Susan E.

The recent article by Seth Stein, Joseph Tomasello, and Andrew Newman raised thought-provoking questions about one of the most vexing open issues in hazard assessment in the United States: the hazard posed by ostensibly infrequent, large, mid-continental earthquakes. Many of the technical issues raised by this article are addressed by A. D. Frankel in the accompanying comment. I concur with this, and will only address and/or elaborate on a few additional issues here: (1) Detailed paleoseismic investigations have shown that the New Madrid region experienced sequences of large earthquakes around 900 and 1450 A.D.in addition to the historic events in 1811-1812. With a repeat time on the order of 400-500 years, these cannot be considered infrequent events. Paleoseismic investigations also reveal evidence that the prehistoric “events” were also sequences of two to three large earthquakes with a similar overall distribution of liquefaction in the greater New Madrid region as produced by the 1811-1812 sequence [Tuttle et al., 2002]. And if, as evidence suggests, the zone produces characteristic earthquakes, one will not see a commensurate rate of moderate events, as would be the case if seismicity followed the Gutenburg-Richter distribution.

A simulation of Earthquake Loss Estimation in Southeastern Korea using HAZUS and the local site classification Map

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, S.; Kim, K.

2013-12-01

Regionally varying seismic hazards can be estimated using an earthquake loss estimation system (e.g. HAZUS-MH). The estimations for actual earthquakes help federal and local authorities develop rapid, effective recovery measures. Estimates for scenario earthquakes help in designing a comprehensive earthquake hazard mitigation plan. Local site characteristics influence the ground motion. Although direct measurements are desirable to construct a site-amplification map, such data are expensive and time consuming to collect. Thus we derived a site classification map of the southern Korean Peninsula using geologic and geomorphologic data, which are readily available for the entire southern Korean Peninsula. Class B sites (mainly rock) are predominant in the area, although localized areas of softer soils are found along major rivers and seashores. The site classification map is compared with independent site classification studies to confirm our site classification map effectively represents the local behavior of site amplification during an earthquake. We then estimated the losses due to a magnitude 6.7 scenario earthquake in Gyeongju, southeastern Korea, with and without the site classification map. Significant differences in loss estimates were observed. The loss without the site classification map decreased without variation with increasing epicentral distance, while the loss with the site classification map varied from region to region, due to both the epicentral distance and local site effects. The major cause of the large loss expected in Gyeongju is the short epicentral distance. Pohang Nam-Gu is located farther from the earthquake source region. Nonetheless, the loss estimates in the remote city are as large as those in Gyeongju and are attributed to the site effect of soft soil found widely in the area.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

1996-04-30

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Varenna workshop report. Operational earthquake forecasting and decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Warner Marzocchi

2015-09-01

Full Text Available A workshop on Operational earthquake forecasting and decision making was convened in Varenna, Italy, on June 8-11, 2014, under the sponsorship of the EU FP 7 REAKT (Strategies and tools for Real-time EArthquake risK reducTion project, the Seismic Hazard Center at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV, and the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC. The main goal was to survey the interdisciplinary issues of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF, including the problems that OEF raises for decision making and risk communication. The workshop was attended by 64 researchers from universities, research centers, and governmental institutions in 11 countries. Participants and the workshop agenda are listed in the appendix.The workshop comprised six topical sessions structured around three main themes: the science of operational earthquake forecasting, decision making in a low-probability environment, and communicating hazard and risk. Each topic was introduced by a moderator and surveyed by a few invited speakers, who were then empaneled for an open discussion. The presentations were followed by poster sessions. During a wrap-up session on the last day, the reporters for each topical session summarized the main points that they had gleaned from the talks and open discussions. This report attempts to distill this workshop record into a brief overview of the workshop themes and to describe the range of opinions expressed during the discussions.

Overview of the critical disaster management challenges faced during Van 2011 earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Tolon, Mert; Yazgan, Ufuk; Ural, Derin N; Goss, Kay C

2014-01-01

On October 23, 2011, a M7.2 earthquake caused damage in a widespread area in the Van province located in eastern Turkey. This strong earthquake was followed by a M5.7 earthquake on November 9, 2011. This sequence of damaging earthquakes led to 644 fatalities. The management during and after these earthquake disaster imposed many critical challenges. In this article, an overview of these challenges is presented based on the observations by the authors in the aftermath of this disaster. This article presents the characteristics of 2011 Van earthquakes. Afterward, the key information related to the four main phases (ie, preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery) of the disaster in Van is presented. The potential strategies that can be taken to improve the disaster management practice are identified, and a set of recommendations are proposed to improve the existing situation.

Recurrent slow slip events as a barrier to the northward rupture propagation of the 2016 Pedernales earthquake (Central Ecuador)

Science.gov (United States)

Vaca, Sandro; Vallée, Martin; Nocquet, Jean-Mathieu; Battaglia, Jean; Régnier, Marc

2018-01-01

The northern Ecuador segment of the Nazca/South America subduction zone shows spatially heterogeneous interseismic coupling. Two highly coupled zones (0.4° S-0.35° N and 0.8° N-4.0° N) are separated by a low coupled area, hereafter referred to as the Punta Galera-Mompiche Zone (PGMZ). Large interplate earthquakes repeatedly occurred within the coupled zones in 1958 (Mw 7.7) and 1979 (Mw 8.1) for the northern patch and in 1942 (Mw 7.8) and 2016 (Mw 7.8) for the southern patch, while the whole segment is thought to have rupture during the 1906 Mw 8.4-8.8 great earthquake. We find that during the last decade, the PGMZ has experienced regular and frequent seismic swarms. For the best documented sequence (December 2013-January 2014), a joint seismological and geodetic analysis reveals a six-week-long Slow Slip Event (SSE) associated with a seismic swarm. During this period, the microseismicity is organized into families of similar earthquakes spatially and temporally correlated with the evolution of the aseismic slip. The moment release (3.4 × 1018 Nm, Mw 6.3), over a 60 × 40 km area, is considerably larger than the moment released by earthquakes (5.8 × 1015 Nm, Mw 4.4) during the same time period. In 2007-2008, a similar seismic-aseismic episode occurred, with higher magnitudes both for the seismic and aseismic processes. Cross-correlation analyses of the seismic waveforms over a 15 years-long period further suggest a 2-year repeat time for seismic swarms, which also implies that SSEs recurrently affect this area. Such SSEs contribute to release the accumulated stress, likely explaining why the 2016 Pedernales earthquake did not propagate northward into the PGMZ.

Latur earthquake and its impact on the aseismic design of structures in India

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basu, P C [Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (India)

1995-07-01

The Latur earthquake occurred on September 30, 1995. The epicentre was located near the Killari village of Latur District which is situated in the stable continental region of Southern Peninsular India. The earthquake caused a wide range of damage though its magnitude (MS) was 6.4. Intensive damage survey was carried out and a number of geophysical and seismological studies had been undertaken. It has been concluded from the results, available so far from these studies, that the hypocentre of the earthquake was on the lineament dipping NW-SE. The rock matrix in the hypocentral region was weakened due to the presence of fluid and rupture of this weak region caused the event. The ground motion produced by the earthquake was of complex nature comprising of horizontal and vertical component. The ground acceleration in the epicentral region was estimated as 0.2 g. Latur earthquake raised several issues with respect to aseismic design of structures in India which need further deliberation. These issues are related to seismic zoning of India, determination of design basis ground motion, design/detailing of structures, etc. (author)

Latur earthquake and its impact on the aseismic design of structures in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basu, P.C.

1995-01-01

The Latur earthquake occurred on September 30, 1995. The epicentre was located near the Killari village of Latur District which is situated in the stable continental region of Southern Peninsular India. The earthquake caused a wide range of damage though its magnitude (MS) was 6.4. Intensive damage survey was carried out and a number of geophysical and seismological studies had been undertaken. It has been concluded from the results, available so far from these studies, that the hypocentre of the earthquake was on the lineament dipping NW-SE. The rock matrix in the hypocentral region was weakened due to the presence of fluid and rupture of this weak region caused the event. The ground motion produced by the earthquake was of complex nature comprising of horizontal and vertical component. The ground acceleration in the epicentral region was estimated as 0.2 g. Latur earthquake raised several issues with respect to aseismic design of structures in India which need further deliberation. These issues are related to seismic zoning of India, determination of design basis ground motion, design/detailing of structures, etc. (author)

Statistical properties of earthquakes clustering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Vecchio

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Often in nature the temporal distribution of inhomogeneous stochastic point processes can be modeled as a realization of renewal Poisson processes with a variable rate. Here we investigate one of the classical examples, namely, the temporal distribution of earthquakes. We show that this process strongly departs from a Poisson statistics for both catalogue and sequence data sets. This indicate the presence of correlations in the system probably related to the stressing perturbation characterizing the seismicity in the area under analysis. As shown by this analysis, the catalogues, at variance with sequences, show common statistical properties.

Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

Science.gov (United States)

Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

2012-01-17

The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

Isolation and 16s rdna sequence analysis of bacteria from dieback affected mango orchards in southern pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, I.A.; Khan, A.; Asif, H.; Azim, M.K.; Muhlbach, H.P.

2014-01-01

A broad range of microorganisms are involved in various mango plant diseases such as fungi, algae and bacteria. In order to study the role of bacteria in mango dieback, a survey of infected mango plants in southern Pakistan was carried out. A number of bacterial isolates were obtained from healthy looking and infected mango trees, and their characterization was undertaken by colony PCR and subsequent sequence analysis of 16S rDNA. These analyses revealed the presence of various genera including Acinetobacter, Bacillus, Burkholderia, Cronobacter, Curtobacterium, Enterobacter, Erwinia, Exiguobacterium, Halotelea, Lysinibacillus, Micrococcus, Microbacterium, Pantoea, Pseudomonas, Salmonella and Staphylococcus. It is noteworthy that several members of these genera have been reported as plant pathogens. The present study provided baseline information regarding the phytopathogenic bacteria associated with mango trees in southern Pakistan. (author)

Full Genome Sequencing Reveals New Southern African Territories Genotypes Bringing Us Closer to Understanding True Variability of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Lasecka-Dykes, Lidia; Wright, Caroline F.; Di Nardo, Antonello; Logan, Grace; Mioulet, Valerie; Jackson, Terry; Tuthill, Tobias J.; Knowles, Nick J.; King, Donald P.

2018-01-01

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes a highly contagious disease of cloven-hooved animals that poses a constant burden on farmers in endemic regions and threatens the livestock industries in disease-free countries. Despite the increased number of publicly available whole genome sequences, FMDV data are biased by the opportunistic nature of sampling. Since whole genomic sequences of Southern African Territories (SAT) are particularly underrepresented, this study sequenced 34 isolates from eastern and southern Africa. Phylogenetic analyses revealed two novel genotypes (that comprised 8/34 of these SAT isolates) which contained unusual 5′ untranslated and non-structural encoding regions. While recombination has occurred between these sequences, phylogeny violation analyses indicated that the high degree of sequence diversity for the novel SAT genotypes has not solely arisen from recombination events. Based on estimates of the timing of ancestral divergence, these data are interpreted as being representative of un-sampled FMDV isolates that have been subjected to geographical isolation within Africa by the effects of the Great African Rinderpest Pandemic (1887–1897), which caused a mass die-out of FMDV-susceptible hosts. These findings demonstrate that further sequencing of African FMDV isolates is likely to reveal more unusual genotypes and will allow for better understanding of natural variability and evolution of FMDV. PMID:29652800

The Iquique 2014 sequence: understanding its nucleation and propagation from the seismicity evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Fuenzalida, A.; Rietbrock, A.; Woollam, J.; Tavera, H.; Ruiz, S.

2017-12-01

The Northern Chile and Southern Peru region is well known for its high seismic hazard due to the lack of recent major ruptures along long segments of the subduction interface. For this reason the 2014 Iquique Mw 8.1 earthquake that occurred in the Northern Chile seismic gap was expected and high quality seismic and geodetic networks were operating at the time of the event recording the precursory phase of a mega-thrust event with unprecedented detail. In this study we used seismic data collected during the 2014 Iquique sequence to generate a detailed earthquake catalogue. This catalogue consists of more than 15,000 events identified in Northern Chile during the period between 1/3/14 and 31/5/14 and provides full coverage of the immediate foreshock sequence, the main-shock and early after-shock series. The initial catalogue was obtained by automatic data processing and only selecting events with at least two associate S phases to improve the reliability of initial locations. Subsequently, this subset of events was automatically processed again using an optimized STA/LTA triggering algorithm for both P and S-waves and constraining the detection times by estimated arrival times at each station calculated for the preliminary locations. Finally, all events were relocated using a recently developed 1D velocity model and associated station corrections. For events Mw 4 or larger that occurred between the 15/3/14 and 10/04/14, we estimated it regional moment tensor by full-waveform inversion. Our results confirm the seismic activation of the upper plate during the foreshock sequence, as well highlight a crustal activity on the fore-arc during the aftershock series. The seismicity distribution was compared to the previous inter-seismic coupling studies obtained in the region, in which we observe interplay between high and low coupling areas, which are correlated to the seismicity rate. The spatial distribution of the seismicity and the complexities on the mechanisms observed

Permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity controlled by earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Brodsky, E. E.; Fulton, P. M.; Xue, L.

2016-12-01

Earthquakes can increase permeability in fractured rocks. In the farfield, such permeability increases are attributed to seismic waves and can last for months after the initial earthquake. Laboratory studies suggest that unclogging of fractures by the transient flow driven by seismic waves is a viable mechanism. These dynamic permeability increases may contribute to permeability enhancement in the seismic clouds accompanying hydraulic fracking. Permeability enhancement by seismic waves could potentially be engineered and the experiments suggest the process will be most effective at a preferred frequency. We have recently observed similar processes inside active fault zones after major earthquakes. A borehole observatory in the fault that generated the M9.0 2011 Tohoku earthquake reveals a sequence of temperature pulses during the secondary aftershock sequence of an M7.3 aftershock. The pulses are attributed to fluid advection by a flow through a zone of transiently increased permeability. Directly after the M7.3 earthquake, the newly damaged fault zone is highly susceptible to further permeability enhancement, but ultimately heals within a month and becomes no longer as sensitive. The observation suggests that the newly damaged fault zone is more prone to fluid pulsing than would be expected based on the long-term permeability structure. Even longer term healing is seen inside the fault zone of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The competition between damage and healing (or clogging and unclogging) results in dynamically controlled permeability, storage and hydraulic diffusivity. Recent measurements of in situ fault zone architecture at the 1-10 meter scale suggest that active fault zones often have hydraulic diffusivities near 10-2 m2/s. This uniformity is true even within the damage zone of the San Andreas fault where permeability and storage increases balance each other to achieve this value of diffusivity over a 400 m wide region. We speculate that fault zones

Potentially induced earthquakes during the early twentieth century in the Los Angeles Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Hough, Susan E.; Page, Morgan T.

2016-01-01

Recent studies have presented evidence that early to mid‐twentieth‐century earthquakes in Oklahoma and Texas were likely induced by fossil fuel production and/or injection of wastewater (Hough and Page, 2015; Frohlich et al., 2016). Considering seismicity from 1935 onward, Hauksson et al. (2015) concluded that there is no evidence for significant induced activity in the greater Los Angeles region between 1935 and the present. To explore a possible association between earthquakes prior to 1935 and oil and gas production, we first revisit the historical catalog and then review contemporary oil industry activities. Although early industry activities did not induce large numbers of earthquakes, we present evidence for an association between the initial oil boom in the greater Los Angeles area and earthquakes between 1915 and 1932, including the damaging 22 June 1920 Inglewood and 8 July 1929 Whittier earthquakes. We further consider whether the 1933 Mw 6.4 Long Beach earthquake might have been induced, and show some evidence that points to a causative relationship between the earthquake and activities in the Huntington Beach oil field. The hypothesis that the Long Beach earthquake was either induced or triggered by an foreshock cannot be ruled out. Our results suggest that significant earthquakes in southern California during the early twentieth century might have been associated with industry practices that are no longer employed (i.e., production without water reinjection), and do not necessarily imply a high likelihood of induced earthquakes at the present time.

The April 2017 M6.7 Botswana Earthquake: Implications for African Intraplate Seismicity.

Science.gov (United States)

Gardonio, B.; Calais, E.; Jolivet, R.

2017-12-01

The last decades have seen a rapidly increasing number of studies of interplate seismicity, revealing for instance the fundamental relationship between seismic and aseismic slip along plate boundary faults. To the contrary, intraplate earthquakes, occurring far from plate boundaries are still misunderstood and by far less studied. Key questions are the mechanisms through which elastic strain builds up and is released in the seismogenic crust in such contexts, in the absence of (yet) measurable intraplate strain rates. The April 2017 M6.7 Botswana earthquake was a surprise in many ways. This is the largest recorded event that struck this ordinarily seismically quiet region, West to the East-African Rift system where most of the usual southern seismicity occurs. It may also be the largest intraplate event recorded since the 1988 Tennant Creek earthquake in central Australia. No active structure can be mapped at the surface. Active extension related to the east African rifting may occur several hundreds of kilometers to the north-east with low rates of a few mm per year. Closer to the event, the Okavango delta, located at 20° of latitude and 23° of longitude is considered by some as an incipient rift with very low deformation rates, similar to a large part of the southern African continent. Interestingly, seismic activity in the area of the recent Botswana earthquake is more important than the world average intraplate activity, potentially due to rifting to the east and/or large stresses induced by lateral gradients in gravitational potential energy (this part of the world has an altitude of 1000 to 2000 m.). The aim of this study is to better constrain the tectonic setting and the dynamics of the Botswana earthquake area. To do so, we analyze a Sentinel 1 interferogram of the event to constrain the strike, dip, depth, magnitude and location of the earthquake. We also analyze continuous teleseismic signals during two months centered on the mainshock using a template

A Virtual Tour of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake in Google EarthTM

Science.gov (United States)

Lackey, H. G.; Blair, J. L.; Boatwright, J.; Brocher, T.

2007-12-01

The 1868 Hayward earthquake has been overshadowed by the subsequent 1906 San Francisco earthquake that destroyed much of San Francisco. Nonetheless, a modern recurrence of the 1868 earthquake would cause widespread damage to the densely populated Bay Area, particularly in the east Bay communities that have grown up virtually on top of the Hayward fault. Our concern is heightened by paleoseismic studies suggesting that the recurrence interval for the past five earthquakes on the southern Hayward fault is 140 to 170 years. Our objective is to build an educational web site that illustrates the cause and effect of the 1868 earthquake drawing on scientific and historic information. We will use Google EarthTM software to visually illustrate complex scientific concepts in a way that is understandable to a non-scientific audience. This web site will lead the viewer from a regional summary of the plate tectonics and faulting system of western North America, to more specific information about the 1868 Hayward earthquake itself. Text and Google EarthTM layers will include modeled shaking of the earthquake, relocations of historic photographs, reconstruction of damaged buildings as 3-D models, and additional scientific data that may come from the many scientific studies conducted for the 140th anniversary of the event. Earthquake engineering concerns will be stressed, including population density, vulnerable infrastructure, and lifelines. We will also present detailed maps of the Hayward fault, measurements of fault creep, and geologic evidence of its recurrence. Understanding the science behind earthquake hazards is an important step in preparing for the next significant earthquake. We hope to communicate to the public and students of all ages, through visualizations, not only the cause and effect of the 1868 earthquake, but also modern seismic hazards of the San Francisco Bay region.

Do I Really Sound Like That? Communicating Earthquake Science Following Significant Earthquakes at the NEIC

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, G. P.; Earle, P. S.; Benz, H.; Wald, D. J.; Yeck, W. L.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) responds to about 160 magnitude 6.0 and larger earthquakes every year and is regularly inundated with information requests following earthquakes that cause significant impact. These requests often start within minutes after the shaking occurs and come from a wide user base including the general public, media, emergency managers, and government officials. Over the past several years, the NEIC's earthquake response has evolved its communications strategy to meet the changing needs of users and the evolving media landscape. The NEIC produces a cascade of products starting with basic hypocentral parameters and culminating with estimates of fatalities and economic loss. We speed the delivery of content by prepositioning and automatically generating products such as, aftershock plots, regional tectonic summaries, maps of historical seismicity, and event summary posters. Our goal is to have information immediately available so we can quickly address the response needs of a particular event or sequence. This information is distributed to hundreds of thousands of users through social media, email alerts, programmatic data feeds, and webpages. Many of our products are included in event summary posters that can be downloaded and printed for local display. After significant earthquakes, keeping up with direct inquiries and interview requests from TV, radio, and print reports is always challenging. The NEIC works with the USGS Office of Communications and the USGS Science Information Services to organize and respond to these requests. Written executive summaries reports are produced and distributed to USGS personnel and collaborators throughout the country. These reports are updated during the response to keep our message consistent and information up to date. This presentation will focus on communications during NEIC's rapid earthquake response but will also touch on the broader USGS traditional and

Rupture directivity and slip distribution of the M 4.3 foreshock to the 1992 Joshua Tree earthquake, Southern California

Science.gov (United States)

Mori, J.

1996-01-01

Details of the M 4.3 foreshock to the Joshua Tree earthquake were studied using P waves recorded on the Southern California Seismic Network and the Anza network. Deconvolution, using an M 2.4 event as an empirical Green's function, corrected for complicated path and site effects in the seismograms and produced simple far-field displacement pulses that were inverted for a slip distribution. Both possible fault planes, north-south and east-west, for the focal mechanism were tested by a least-squares inversion procedure with a range of rupture velocities. The results showed that the foreshock ruptured the north-south plane, similar to the mainshock. The foreshock initiated a few hundred meters south of the mainshock and ruptured to the north, toward the mainshock hypocenter. The mainshock (M 6.1) initiated near the northern edge of the foreshock rupture 2 hr later. The foreshock had a high stress drop (320 to 800 bars) and broke a small portion of the fault adjacent to the mainshock but was not able to immediately initiate the mainshock rupture.

Identifying Faults Associated with the 2001 Avoca Induced(?) Seismicity Sequence of Western New York State Using Potential Field Wavelets.

Science.gov (United States)

Horowitz, F. G.; Ebinger, C.; Jordan, T. E.

2017-12-01

Results from recent DOE and USGS sponsored projects in the (intraplate) northeastern portions of the US and southeastern portions of Canada have identified locations of steeply dipping structures - many previously unknown - from a Poisson wavelet multiscale edge ('worm') analysis of gravity and magnetic fields. The Avoca sequence of induced(?) seismicity in western New York state occurred during January and February of 2001. The Avoca earthquake sequence is associated with industrial hydraulic fracturing activity "related to a proposed natural gas storage facility near Avoca to be constructed by solution mining" (Kim, 2001). The main Avoca event was a felt Mb = 3.2 earthquake on Feb. 3, 2001 recorded by the Lamont Cooperative Seismic Network. Earlier, smaller events were located by the Canadian Geological Survey's seismic network north of the Canadian border - implying that the event locations might be biased because they occurred off the southern edge of the array. Some of these events were also felt locally, according to local newspaper reports. By plotting the location of the seismic events and that of the injection well - reported via it's API number - we find a strong correlation with structures detected via our potential field worms. The injection occurred near a NE-SW striking structure that was not activated. All but one of the earthquakes occurred about 5 km north of the injection well on or nearby to an E-W striking structure that appears to intersect the NE-SW structure. The final, small (MN=2.2) earthquake was located on a different complex structure about 10 km north of the other events. We suggest that potential field methods such as ours might be appropriate to locating structures of concern for induced seismic activity in association with industrial activity. Reference: Kim, W.-Y. (2001). The Lamont cooperative seismic network and the national seismic system: Earthquake hazard studies in the northeastern United States. Tech. Rep. 98-01, Lamont

Earthquake swarms and the semidiurnal solid earth tide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klein, F W

1976-01-01

Several correlations between peak earthquake activity during swarms and the phase and stress orientation of the calculated solid earth tide are described. The events correlating with the tide are clusters of swarm earthquakes. Swarm clusters from many sequences recorded over several years are used. Significant tidal correlations (which have less than a 5% chance of being observed if earthquakes were random) are found in the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland, the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Imperial Valley and northern Gulf of California, and larger (m/sub b/ greater than or equal to 5.0) aftershocks of the 1965 Rat Islands earthquake. In addition, sets of larger single earthquakes on Atlantic and north-east Pacific fracture zones are significantly correlated with the calculated solid tide. No tidal correlation, however, could be found for the Matsushiro Japan swarm of 1965 to 1967. The earthquake-tide correlations other than those of the Reykjanes Peninsula and Mid-Atlantic Ridge can be interpreted as triggering caused by enhancement of the tectonic stress by tidal stress, i.e. the alignment of fault and tidal principal stresses. All tidal correlations except in the Aleutians are associated with oceanic rifts or their landward extensions. If lithospheric plates are decoupled at active rifts, then tidal stresses channeled along the lithospheric stress guide may be concentrated at ridge-type plate boundaries. Tidal triggering of earthquakes at rifts may reflect this possible amplification of tidal strains in the weakened lithosphere at ridges. 25 figures, 2 tables.

Late Holocene earthquake history of the Brigham City segment of the Wasatch fault zone at the Hansen Canyon, Kotter Canyon, and Pearsons Canyon trench sites, Box Elder County, Utah

Science.gov (United States)

DuRoss, Christopher B.; Personius, Stephen F.; Crone, Anthony J.; McDonald, Greg N.; Briggs, Richard W.

2012-01-01

Of the five central segments of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) having evidence of recurrent Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes, the Brigham City segment (BCS) has the longest elapsed time since its most recent surface-faulting event (~2.1 kyr) compared to its mean recurrence time between events (~1.3 kyr). Thus, the BCS has the highest time-dependent earthquake probability of the central WFZ. We excavated trenches at three sites––the Kotter Canyon and Hansen Canyon sites on the north-central BCS and Pearsons Canyon site on the southern BCS––to determine whether a surface-faulting earthquake younger than 2.1 ka occurred on the BCS. Paleoseismic data for Hansen Canyon and Kotter Canyon confirm that the youngest earthquake on the north-central BCS occurred before 2 ka, consistent with previous north-central BCS investigations at Bowden Canyon and Box Elder Canyon. At Hansen Canyon, the most recent earthquake is constrained to 2.1–4.2 ka and had 0.6–2.5 m of vertical displacement. At Kotter Canyon, we found evidence for two events at 2.5 ± 0.3 ka and 3.5 ± 0.3 ka, with an average displacement per event of 1.9–2.3 m. Paleoseismic data from Pearsons Canyon, on the previously unstudied southern BCS, indicate that a post-2 ka earthquake ruptured this part of the segment. The Pearsons Canyon earthquake occurred at 1.2 ± 0.04 ka and had 0.1–0.8 m of vertical displacement, consistent with our observation of continuous, youthful scarps on the southern 9 km of the BCS having 1–2 m of late Holocene(?) surface offset. The 1.2-ka earthquake on the southern BCS likely represents rupture across the Weber–Brigham City segment boundary from the penultimate Weber-segment earthquake at about 1.1 ka. The Pearsons Canyon data result in a revised length of the BCS that has not ruptured since 2 ka (with time-dependent probability implications), and provide compelling evidence of at least one segment-boundary failure and multi-segment rupture on the central WFZ. Our

Rupture distribution of the 1977 western Argentina earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Langer, C.J.; Hartzell, S.

1996-01-01

Teleseismic P and SH body waves are used in a finite-fault, waveform inversion for the rupture history of the 23 November 1977 western Argentina earthquake. This double event consists of a smaller foreshock (M0 = 5.3 ?? 1026 dyn-cm) followed about 20 s later by a larger main shock (M0 = 1.5 ?? 1027 dyn-cm). Our analysis indicates that these two events occurred on different fault segments: with the foreshock having a strike, dip, and average rake of 345??, 45??E, and 50??, and the main shock 10??, 45??E, and 80??, respectively. The foreshock initiated at a depth of 17 km and propagated updip and to the north. The main shock initiated at the southern end of the foreshock zone at a depth of 25 to 30 km, and propagated updip and unilaterally to the south. The north-south separation of the centroids of the moment release for the foreshock and main shock is about 60 km. The apparent triggering of the main shock by the foreshock is similar to other earthquakes that have involved the failure of multiple fault segments, such as the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake. Such occurrences argue against the use of individual, mapped, surface fault or fault-segment lengths in the determination of the size and frequency of future earthquakes.

Using Earthquake Analysis to Expand the Oklahoma Fault Database

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, J. C.; Evans, S. C.; Walter, J. I.

2017-12-01

The Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS) is compiling a comprehensive Oklahoma Fault Database (OFD), which includes faults mapped in OGS publications, university thesis maps, and industry-contributed shapefiles. The OFD includes nearly 20,000 fault segments, but the work is far from complete. The OGS plans on incorporating other sources of data into the OFD, such as new faults from earthquake sequence analyses, geologic field mapping, active-source seismic surveys, and potential fields modeling. A comparison of Oklahoma seismicity and the OFD reveals that earthquakes in the state appear to nucleate on mostly unmapped or unknown faults. Here, we present faults derived from earthquake sequence analyses. From 2015 to present, there has been a five-fold increase in realtime seismic stations in Oklahoma, which has greatly expanded and densified the state's seismic network. The current seismic network not only improves our threshold for locating weaker earthquakes, but also allows us to better constrain focal plane solutions (FPS) from first motion analyses. Using nodal planes from the FPS, HypoDD relocation, and historic seismic data, we can elucidate these previously unmapped seismogenic faults. As the OFD is a primary resource for various scientific investigations, the inclusion of seismogenic faults improves further derivative studies, particularly with respect to seismic hazards. Our primal focus is on four areas of interest, which have had M5+ earthquakes in recent Oklahoma history: Pawnee (M5.8), Prague (M5.7), Fairview (M5.1), and Cushing (M5.0). Subsequent areas of interest will include seismically active data-rich areas, such as the central and northcentral parts of the state.

New paleomagnetic and paleointensity results from late pliocene volcanic sequences from southern Georgia (Caucasus)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Calvo-Rathert, Manuel; Bogalo, Maria-Felicidad; Carrancho, Angel; Villalain, Juan Jose [Universidad de Burgos, Burgos (Spain). Departamento de Fisica, EPS; Goguichaichvili, Avto [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Morelia (Mexico). Laboratorio de Magnetismo Natural, Instituto de Geofisica; Vegas-Tubia, Nestor [Universidad del Pais Vasco, Bilbao (Spain). Departamento de Geodinamica; Sologashvili, Jemal [Ivane Javakhishvili State University of Tbilisi, Tbilisi (Georgia). Department of Geophysics

2009-07-01

Complete text of publication follows. Paleomagnetic and rock-magnetic experiments were carried out on 21 basaltic lava flows belonging to four different sequences of late Pliocene age from southern Georgia (Caucasus): Dmanisi (11 flows), Diliska (5 flows), Kvemo Orozmani (5 flows), and Zemo Karabulaki (3 flows). Paleomagnetic analysis generally showed the presence of a single component (mainly in the Dmanisi sequence) but also two more or less superimposed components in several other cases. All sites except one clearly displayed a normal-polarity characteristic component. Rock-magnetic experiments included measurement of thermomagnetic curves and hysteresis parameters. Susceptibility-versus-temperature curves measured in argon atmosphere on whole-rock powdered samples yielded low-Ti titanomagnetite as main carrier of remanence, although a lower T{sub C}-component was also observed in several cases. Both reversible and non-reversible k-T curves were measured. A pilot paleointensity study was performed with the Coe (1967) method on two samples of each of those sites considered suitable after interpretation of rock-magnetic and paleomagnetic data from all sites. The pilot study showed that reliable paleointensity results were mainly obtained from sites of the Dmanisi sequence. This thick sequence of basaltic lava flows records the upper end of the normal-polarity Olduvai subchron, a fact confirmed by {sup 40}Ar/{sup 39}Ar dating of the uppermost lava flow and overlying volcanogenic ashes, which yields ages of 1.8 to 1.85 My. A second paleointensity experiment was carried out only on samples belonging to the Dmanisi sequence. Preliminary results show that paleointensities often are low, their values lying between 10 and 20 muT in many cases. For comparison, present day field is 47 muT. The Dmanisi sequence of lava flows directly underlies the Dmanisi paleoanthropologic site, in which the end of the Olduvai subchron is recorded.

Correlations between solid tides and worldwide earthquakes MS ≥ 7.0 since 1900

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Q. H. Xu

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Most studies on the correlations between earthquakes and solid tides mainly concluded the syzygies (i.e. new or full moons of each lunar cycle have more earthquakes than other days in the month. We show a correlation between the aftershock sequence of the ML = 6.3 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquake and the diurnal solid tide. Ms ≥ 7 earthquakes worldwide since 1900 are more likely to occur during the 0°, 90°, 180° or 270° phases (i.e. earthquake-prone phases of the semidiurnal solid earth tidal curve (M2. Thus, the semidiurnal solid tides triggers earthquakes. However, the long-term triggering effect of the lunar periodicity is uncertain. This proposal is helpful in defining possible origin times of aftershocks several days after a mainshock and can be used for warning of subsequent larger shocks.

Observations of static Coulomb stress triggering of the November 2011 M5.7 Oklahoma earthquake sequence

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Sumy, Danielle F.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Keranen, Katie M.; Wei, Maya; Abers, Geoffrey A.

2014-01-01

In November 2011, a M5.0 earthquake occurred less than a day before a M5.7 earthquake near Prague, Oklahoma, which may have promoted failure of the mainshock and thousands of aftershocks along the Wilzetta fault, including a M5.0 aftershock. The M5.0 foreshock occurred in close proximity to active fluid injection wells; fluid injection can cause a buildup of pore fluid pressure, decrease the fault strength, and may induce earthquakes. Keranen et al. [2013] links the M5.0 foreshock with fluid injection, but the relationship between the foreshock and successive events has not been investigated. Here we examine the role of coseismic Coulomb stress transfer on earthquakes that follow the M5.0 foreshock, including the M5.7 mainshock. We resolve the static Coulomb stress change onto the focal mechanism nodal plane that is most consistent with the rupture geometry of the three M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, as well as specified receiver fault planes that reflect the regional stress orientation. We find that Coulomb stress is increased, e.g., fault failure is promoted, on the nodal planes of ~60% of the events that have focal mechanism solutions, and more specifically, that the M5.0 foreshock promoted failure on the rupture plane of the M5.7 mainshock. We test our results over a range of effective coefficient of friction values. Hence, we argue that the M5.0 foreshock, induced by fluid injection, potentially triggered a cascading failure of earthquakes along the complex Wilzetta fault system.

The 2014 Greeley, Colorado Earthquakes: Science, Industry, Regulation, and Media

Science.gov (United States)

Yeck, W. L.; Sheehan, A. F.; Weingarten, M.; Nakai, J.; Ge, S.

2014-12-01

On June 1, 2014 (UTC) a magnitude 3.2 earthquake occurred east of the town of Greeley, Colorado. The earthquake was widely felt, with reports from Boulder and Golden, over 60 miles away from the epicenter. The location of the earthquake in a region long considered aseismic but now the locus of active oil and gas production prompted the question of whether this was a natural or induced earthquake. Several classic induced seismicity cases hail from Colorado, including the Rocky Mountain Arsenal earthquakes in the 1960s and the Paradox Valley earthquakes in western Colorado. In both cases the earthquakes were linked to wastewater injection. The Greeley earthquake epicenter was close to a Class II well that had been injecting waste fluid into the deepest sedimentary formation of the Denver Basin at rates as high as 350,000 barrels/month for less than a year. The closest seismometers to the June 1 event were more than 100 km away, necessitating deployment of a local seismic network for detailed study. IRIS provided six seismometers to the University of Colorado which were deployed starting within 3 days of the mainshock. Telemetry at one site allowed for real time monitoring of the ongoing seismic sequence. Local media interest was extremely high with speculation that the earthquake was linked to the oil and gas industry. The timetable of media demand for information provided some challenges given the time needed for data collection and analysis. We adopted a policy of open data and open communication with all interested parties, and made proactive attempts to provide information to industry and regulators. After 3 weeks of data collection and analysis, the proximity and timing of the mainshock and aftershocks to the C4A injection well, along with a sharp increase in seismicity culminating in an M 2.6 aftershock, led to a decision by the Colorado Oil and Gas Corporation Commission (COGCC) to recommend a temporary halt to injection at the C4A injection well. This was the

On the problem of earthquake correlation in space and time over large distances

Science.gov (United States)

Georgoulas, G.; Konstantaras, A.; Maravelakis, E.; Katsifarakis, E.; Stylios, C. D.

2012-04-01

A quick examination of geographical maps with the epicenters of earthquakes marked on them reveals a strong tendency of these points to form compact clusters of irregular shapes and various sizes often traversing with other clusters. According to [Saleur et al. 1996] "earthquakes are correlated in space and time over large distances". This implies that seismic sequences are not formatted randomly but they follow a spatial pattern with consequent triggering of events. Seismic cluster formation is believed to be due to underlying geological natural hazards, which: a) act as the energy storage elements of the phenomenon, and b) tend to form a complex network of numerous interacting faults [Vallianatos and Tzanis, 1998]. Therefore it is imperative to "isolate" meaningful structures (clusters) in order to mine information regarding the underlying mechanism and at a second stage to test the causality effect implied by what is known as the Domino theory [Burgman, 2009]. Ongoing work by Konstantaras et al. 2011 and Katsifarakis et al. 2011 on clustering seismic sequences in the area of the Southern Hellenic Arc and progressively throughout the Greek vicinity and the entire Mediterranean region based on an explicit segmentation of the data based both on their temporal and spatial stamp, following modelling assumptions proposed by Dobrovolsky et al. 1989 and Drakatos et al. 2001, managed to identify geologically validated seismic clusters. These results suggest that that the time component should be included as a dimension during the clustering process as seismic cluster formation is dynamic and the emerging clusters propagate in time. Another issue that has not been investigated yet explicitly is the role of the magnitude of each seismic event. In other words the major seismic event should be treated differently compared to pre or post seismic sequences. Moreover the sometimes irregular and elongated shapes that appear on geophysical maps means that clustering algorithms

Strong-motion observations of the M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence and development of the N-shake strong-motion network

Science.gov (United States)

Dixit, Amod; Ringler, Adam; Sumy, Danielle F.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey; Gibbons, Steven; Luetgert, James H.; Galetzka, John; Shrestha, Surya; Rajaure, Sudhir; McNamara, Daniel E.

2015-01-01

We present and describe strong-motion data observations from the 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake sequence collected using existing and new Quake-Catcher Network (QCN) and U.S. Geological Survey NetQuakes sensors located in the Kathmandu Valley. A comparison of QCN data with waveforms recorded by a conventional strong-motion (NetQuakes) instrument validates the QCN data. We present preliminary analysis of spectral accelerations, and peak ground acceleration and velocity for earthquakes up to M 7.3 from the QCN stations, as well as preliminary analysis of the mainshock recording from the NetQuakes station. We show that mainshock peak accelerations were lower than expected and conclude the Kathmandu Valley experienced a pervasively nonlinear response during the mainshock. Phase picks from the QCN and NetQuakes data are also used to improve aftershock locations. This study confirms the utility of QCN instruments to contribute to ground-motion investigations and aftershock response in regions where conventional instrumentation and open-access seismic data are limited. Initial pilot installations of QCN instruments in 2014 are now being expanded to create the Nepal–Shaking Hazard Assessment for Kathmandu and its Environment (N-SHAKE) network.

Earthquake and nuclear explosion location using the global seismic network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez, L.M.

1983-01-01

The relocation of nuclear explosions, aftershock sequence and regional seismicity is addressed by using joint hypocenter determination, Lomnitz' distance domain location, and origin time and earthquake depth determination with local observations. Distance domain and joint hypocenter location are used for a stepwise relocation of nuclear explosions in the USSR. The resulting origin times are 2.5 seconds earlier than those obtained by ISC. Local travel times from the relocated explosions are compared to Jeffreys-Bullen tables. P times are found to be faster at 9-30 0 distances, the largest deviation being around 10 seconds at 13-18 0 . At these distances S travel times also are faster by approximately 20 seconds. The 1977 Sumba earthquake sequence is relocated by iterative joint hypocenter determination of events with most station reports. Simultaneously determined station corrections are utilized for the relocation of smaller aftershocks. The relocated hypocenters indicate that the aftershocks were initially concentrated along the deep trench. Origin times and depths are recalculated for intermediate depth and deep earthquakes using local observations in and around the Japanese Islands. It is found that origin time and depth differ systematically from ISC values for intermediate depth events. Origin times obtained for events below the crust down to 100 km depth are earlier, whereas no general bias seem to exist for origin times of events in the 100-400 km depth range. The recalculated depths for earthquakes shallower than 100 km are shallower than ISC depths. The depth estimates for earthquakes deeper than 100 km were increased by the recalculations

Earthquake and nuclear explosion location using the global seismic network

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopez, L.M.

1983-01-01

The relocation of nuclear explosions, aftershock sequence and regional seismicity is addressed by using joint hypocenter determination, Lomnitz' distance domain location, and origin time and earthquake depth determination with local observations. Distance domain and joint hypocenter location are used for a stepwise relocation of nuclear explosions in the USSR. The resulting origin times are 2.5 seconds earlier than those obtained by ISC. Local travel times from the relocated explosions are compared to Jeffreys-Bullen tables. P times are found to be faster at 9-30/sup 0/ distances, the largest deviation being around 10 seconds at 13-18/sup 0/. At these distances S travel times also are faster by approximately 20 seconds. The 1977 Sumba earthquake sequence is relocated by iterative joint hypocenter determination of events with most station reports. Simultaneously determined station corrections are utilized for the relocation of smaller aftershocks. The relocated hypocenters indicate that the aftershocks were initially concentrated along the deep trench. Origin times and depths are recalculated for intermediate depth and deep earthquakes using local observations in and around the Japanese Islands. It is found that origin time and depth differ systematically from ISC values for intermediate depth events. Origin times obtained for events below the crust down to 100 km depth are earlier, whereas no general bias seem to exist for origin times of events in the 100-400 km depth range. The recalculated depths for earthquakes shallower than 100 km are shallower than ISC depths. The depth estimates for earthquakes deeper than 100 km were increased by the recalculations.

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the Microseismicity Preceding the 2016 M L 6.6 Meinong Earthquake in Southern Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Pu, Hsin-Chieh

2018-02-01

Before the M L 6.6 Meinong earthquake in 2016, intermediate-term quiescence (Q i), foreshocks, and short-term quiescence (Q s) were extracted from a comprehensive earthquake catalog. In practice, these behaviors are thought to be the seismic indicators of an earthquake precursor, and their spatiotemporal characteristics may be associated with location, magnitude, and occurrence time of the following main shock. Hence, detailed examinations were carried out to derive the spatiotemporal characteristics of these meaningful seismic behaviors. First, the spatial range of the Q i that occurred for 96 days was revealed in and around the Meinong earthquake. Second, a series of foreshocks was present for 1 day, clustered at the southeastern end of the Meinong earthquake. Third, Q s was present for 3 days and was pronounced after the foreshocks. Although these behaviors were recorded difficultly because the Q i was characterized by microseismicity at the lower cut-off magnitude, between M L 1.2 and 1.6, and most of the foreshocks were comprised of earthquakes with a magnitude lower than 1.8, they carried meaningful precursory indicators preceding the Meinong earthquake. These indicators provide the information of (1) the hypocenter, which was indicated by the area including the Q i, foreshocks, and Q s; (2) the magnitude, which could be associated to the spatial range of the Q i; (3) the asperity locations, which might be related to the areas of extraordinary low seismicity; and (4) a short-term warning leading of 3 days, which could have been announced based on the occurrence of the Q s. Particularly, Q i also appeared before strong inland earthquakes so that Q i might be an anticipative phenomenon before a strong earthquake in Taiwan.

Defence against earthquakes: a red thread of history

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guidoboni, Emanuela

2015-01-01

This note gives a short overview from the ancient world down to the end of the eighteenth century (before engineering began as a science, that is) on the idea of “housing safety” and earthquakes. The idea varies, but persists throughout the cultural and economic contexts of history’s changing societies, and in relation to class and lifestyle. Historical research into earthquakes in Italy from the ancient world to the twentieth century has shown how variable the idea actually is, as emerges from theoretical treatises, practical wisdom and projects drawn up in the wake of destructive events. In the seventeenth century the theoretical interpretation of earthquakes began to swing towards a mechanistic view of the Earth, affecting how the effects and propagation of earthquakes were observed. Strong earthquakes continued to occur and cause damage, and after yet another seismic disaster – Umbria 1751 – new building techniques were advocated. The attempt was to make house walls bind more solidly by special linking of the wooden structure of floors and roof beams. Following the massive seismic crisis of February-March 1783, which left central and southern Calabria in ruins, a new house was proposed, called 'baraccata': it was a wooden structure filled in with light materials. This was actually already to be founding the ancient Mediterranean basin (including Pompei); but only at that time was it perfected, proposed by engineers and circulated as an important building innovation. At the end of the eighteenth century town planners came to the fore in the search for safe housing. They suggested new regular shapes, broad grid-plan streets with a specific view to achieving housing safety and ensuring an escape route in case of earthquake. Such rules and regulations were then abandoned or lost, proving that it is not enough to try out [it

Earthquake Activities Along the Strike-Slip Fault System on the Thailand-Myanmar Border

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Santi Pailoplee

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the present-day seismicity along the strike-slip fault system on the Thailand-Myanmar border. Using the earthquake catalogue the earthquake parameters representing seismic activities were evaluated in terms of the possible maximum magnitude, return period and earthquake occurrence probabilities. Three different hazardous areas could be distinguished from the obtained results. The most seismic-prone area was located along the northern segment of the fault system and can generate earthquakes of magnitude 5.0, 5.8, and 6.8 mb in the next 5, 10, and 50 years, respectively. The second most-prone area was the southern segment where earthquakes of magnitude 5.0, 6.0, and 7.0 mb might be generated every 18, 60, and 300 years, respectively. For the central segment, there was less than 30 and 10% probability that 6.0- and 7.0-mb earthquakes will be generated in the next 50 years. With regards to the significant infrastructures (dams in the vicinity, the operational Wachiralongkorn dam is situated in a low seismic hazard area with a return period of around 30 - 3000 years for a 5.0 - 7.0 mb earthquake. In contrast, the Hut Gyi, Srinakarin and Tha Thung Na dams are seismically at risk for earthquakes of mb 6.4 - 6.5 being generated in the next 50 years. Plans for a seismic-retrofit should therefore be completed and implemented while seismic monitoring in this region is indispensable.

Broadband Ground Motion Reconstruction for the Kanto Basin during the 1923 Kanto Earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Sekiguchi, Haruko; Yoshimi, Masayuki

2011-03-01

Ground motions of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake inside the Kanto Basin are numerically simulated in a wide frequency range (0-10 Hz) based on new knowledge of the earthquake's source processes, the sedimentary structure of the basin, and techniques for generating broadband source models of great earthquakes. The Kanto Earthquake remains one of the most important exemplars for ground motion prediction in Japan due to its size, faulting geometry, and location beneath the densely populated Kanto sedimentary basin. We reconstruct a broadband source model of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake from inversion results by introducing small-scale heterogeneities. The corresponding ground motions are simulated using a hybrid technique comprising the following four calculations: (1) low-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a finite difference method; (2) high-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a stochastic Green's function method; (3) total ground motion of the engineering basement (i.e. 1 + 2); and (4) ground motion at the surface in response to the total basement ground motion. We employ a recently developed three-dimensional (3D) velocity structure model of the Kanto Basin that incorporates prospecting data, microtremor observations and measurements derived from strong ground motion records. Our calculations reveal peak ground velocities (PGV) exceeding 50 cm/s in the area above the fault plane: to the south, where the fault plane is shallowest, PGV reaches 150-200 cm/s at the engineering basement and 200-250 cm/s at the surface. Intensity 7, the maximum value in the Japan Meteorological Agency's intensity scale, is calculated to have occurred widely in Sagami Bay, which corresponds well with observed house-collapse rates due to the 1923 event. The modeling reveals a pronounced forward directivity effect for the area lying above the southern, shallow part of the fault plane. The high PGV and intensity seen above the

A new strategy for earthquake focal mechanisms using waveform-correlation-derived relative polarities and cluster analysis: Application to the 2014 Long Valley Caldera earthquake swarm

Science.gov (United States)

Shelly, David R.; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Hill, David P.

2016-01-01

In microseismicity analyses, reliable focal mechanisms can typically be obtained for only a small subset of located events. We address this limitation here, presenting a framework for determining robust focal mechanisms for entire populations of very small events. To achieve this, we resolve relative P and S wave polarities between pairs of waveforms by using their signed correlation coefficients—a by-product of previously performed precise earthquake relocation. We then use cluster analysis to group events with similar patterns of polarities across the network. Finally, we apply a standard mechanism inversion to the grouped data, using either catalog or correlation-derived P wave polarity data sets. This approach has great potential for enhancing analyses of spatially concentrated microseismicity such as earthquake swarms, mainshock-aftershock sequences, and industrial reservoir stimulation or injection-induced seismic sequences. To demonstrate its utility, we apply this technique to the 2014 Long Valley Caldera earthquake swarm. In our analysis, 85% of the events (7212 out of 8494 located by Shelly et al. [2016]) fall within five well-constrained mechanism clusters, more than 12 times the number with network-determined mechanisms. Of the earthquakes we characterize, 3023 (42%) have magnitudes smaller than 0.0. We find that mechanism variations are strongly associated with corresponding hypocentral structure, yet mechanism heterogeneity also occurs where it cannot be resolved by hypocentral patterns, often confined to small-magnitude events. Small (5–20°) rotations between mechanism orientations and earthquake location trends persist when we apply 3-D velocity models and might reflect a geometry of en echelon, interlinked shear, and dilational faulting.

Birth of two volcanic islands in the southern Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Xu, Wenbin

2015-05-26

Submarine eruptions that lead to the formation of new volcanic islands are rare and far from being fully understood; only a few such eruptions have been witnessed since Surtsey Island emerged to the south of Iceland in the 1960s. Here we report on two new volcanic islands that were formed in the Zubair archipelago of the southern Red Sea in 2011–2013. Using high-resolution optical satellite images, we find that the new islands grew rapidly during their initial eruptive phases and that coastal erosion significantly modified their shapes within months. Satellite radar data indicate that two north–south-oriented dykes, much longer than the small islands might suggest, fed the eruptions. These events occurred contemporaneously with several local earthquake swarms of the type that typically accompany magma intrusions. Earthquake activity has been affecting the southern Red Sea for decades, suggesting the presence of a magmatically active zone that has previously escaped notice.

Correlation between Earthquakes and AE Monitoring of Historical Buildings in Seismic Areas

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Giuseppe Lacidogna

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this contribution a new method for evaluating seismic risk in regional areas based on the acoustic emission (AE technique is proposed. Most earthquakes have precursors, i.e., phenomena of changes in the Earth’s physical-chemical properties that take place prior to an earthquake. Acoustic emissions in materials and earthquakes in the Earth’s crust, despite the fact that they take place on very different scales, are very similar phenomena; both are caused by a release of elastic energy from a source located in a medium. For the AE monitoring, two important constructions of Italian cultural heritage are considered: the chapel of the “Sacred Mountain of Varallo” and the “Asinelli Tower” of Bologna. They were monitored during earthquake sequences in their relative areas. By using the Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm, a statistical method of analysis was developed that detects AEs as earthquake precursors or aftershocks. Under certain conditions it was observed that AEs precede earthquakes. These considerations reinforce the idea that the AE monitoring can be considered an effective tool for earthquake risk evaluation.

Statistics and Analysis of the Relations between Rainstorm Floods and Earthquakes

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Baodeng Hou

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The frequent occurrence of geophysical disasters under climate change has drawn Chinese scholars to pay their attention to disaster relations. If the occurrence sequence of disasters could be identified, long-term disaster forecast could be realized. Based on the Earth Degassing Effect (EDE which is valid, this paper took the magnitude, epicenter, and occurrence time of the earthquake, as well as the epicenter and occurrence time of the rainstorm floods as basic factors to establish an integrated model to study the correlation between rainstorm floods and earthquakes. 2461 severe earthquakes occurred in China or within 3000 km from China and the 169 heavy rainstorm floods occurred in China over the past 200+ years as the input data of the model. The computational results showed that although most of the rainstorm floods have nothing to do with the severe earthquakes from a statistical perspective, some floods might relate to earthquakes. This is especially true when the earthquakes happen in the vapor transmission zone where rainstorms lead to abundant water vapors. In this regard, earthquakes are more likely to cause big rainstorm floods. However, many cases of rainstorm floods could be found after severe earthquakes with a large extent of uncertainty.

Frictional melt generated by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake and its faulting mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, H.; Li, H.; Si, J.; Sun, Z.; Zhang, L.; He, X.

2017-12-01

Fault-related pseudotachylytes are considered as fossil earthquakes, conveying significant information that provide improved insight into fault behaviors and their mechanical properties. The WFSD project was carried out right after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, detailed research was conducted in the drilling cores. 2 mm rigid black layer with fresh slickenlines was observed at 732.6 m in WFSD-1 cores drilled at the southern Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF). Evidence of optical microscopy, FESEM and FIB-TEM show it's frictional melt (pseudotachylyte). In the northern part of YBF, 4 mm fresh melt was found at 1084 m with similar structures in WFSD-4S cores. The melts contain numerous microcracks. Considering that (1) the highly unstable property of the frictional melt (easily be altered or devitrified) under geological conditions; (2) the unfilled microcracks; (3) fresh slickenlines and (4) recent large earthquake in this area, we believe that 2-4 mm melt was produced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. This is the first report of fresh pseudotachylyte with slickenlines in natural fault that generated by modern earthquake. Geochemical analyses show that fault rocks at 732.6 m are enriched in CaO, Fe2O3, FeO, H2O+ and LOI, whereas depleted in SiO2. XRF results show that Ca and Fe are enriched obviously in the 2.5 cm fine-grained fault rocks and Ba enriched in the slip surface. The melt has a higher magnetic susceptibility value, which may due to neoformed magnetite and metallic iron formed in fault frictional melt. Frictional melt visible in both southern and northern part of YBF reveals that frictional melt lubrication played a major role in the Wenchuan earthquake. Instead of vesicles and microlites, numerous randomly oriented microcracks in the melt, exhibiting a quenching texture. The quenching texture suggests the frictional melt was generated under rapid heat-dissipation condition, implying vigorous fluid circulation during the earthquake. We surmise that during

Isolating active orogenic wedge deformation in the southern Subandes of Bolivia

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, Jonathan R.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Foster, James H.; Bevis, Michael; Echalar, Arturo; Caccamise, Dana; Heck, Jacob; Kendrick, Eric; Ahlgren, Kevin; Raleigh, David; Smalley, Robert; Vergani, Gustavo

2016-08-01

A new GPS-derived surface velocity field for the central Andean backarc permits an assessment of orogenic wedge deformation across the southern Subandes of Bolivia, where recent studies suggest that great earthquakes (>Mw 8) are possible. We find that the backarc is not isolated from the main plate boundary seismic cycle. Rather, signals from subduction zone earthquakes contaminate the velocity field at distances greater than 800 km from the Chile trench. Two new wedge-crossing velocity profiles, corrected for seasonal and earthquake affects, reveal distinct regions that reflect (1) locking of the main plate boundary across the high Andes, (2) the location of and loading rate at the back of orogenic wedge, and (3) an east flank velocity gradient indicative of décollement locking beneath the Subandes. Modeling of the Subandean portions of the profiles indicates along-strike variations in the décollement locked width (WL) and wedge loading rate; the northern wedge décollement has a WL of ~100 km while accumulating slip at a rate of ~14 mm/yr, whereas the southern wedge has a WL of ~61 km and a slip rate of ~7 mm/yr. When compared to Quaternary estimates of geologic shortening and evidence for Holocene internal wedge deformation, the new GPS-derived wedge loading rates may indicate that the southern wedge is experiencing a phase of thickening via reactivation of preexisting internal structures. In contrast, we suspect that the northern wedge is undergoing an accretion or widening phase primarily via slip on relatively young thrust-front faults.

Clustering and interpretation of local earthquake tomography models in the southern Dead Sea basin

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Klaus; Braeuer, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The Dead Sea transform (DST) marks the boundary between the Arabian and the African plates. Ongoing left-lateral relative plate motion and strike-slip deformation started in the Early Miocene (20 MA) and produced a total shift of 107 km until presence. The Dead Sea basin (DSB) located in the central part of the DST is one of the largest pull-apart basins in the world. It was formed from step-over of different fault strands at a major segment boundary of the transform fault system. The basin development was accompanied by deposition of clastics and evaporites and subsequent salt diapirism. Ongoing deformation within the basin and activity of the boundary faults are indicated by increased seismicity. The internal architecture of the DSB and the crustal structure around the DST were subject of several large scientific projects carried out since 2000. Here we report on a local earthquake tomography study from the southern DSB. In 2006-2008, a dense seismic network consisting of 65 stations was operated for 18 months in the southern part of the DSB and surrounding regions. Altogether 530 well-constrained seismic events with 13,970 P- and 12,760 S-wave arrival times were used for a travel time inversion for Vp, Vp/Vs velocity structure and seismicity distribution. The work flow included 1D inversion, 2.5D and 3D tomography, and resolution analysis. We demonstrate a possible strategy how several tomographic models such as Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs can be integrated for a combined lithological interpretation. We analyzed the tomographic models derived by 2.5D inversion using neural network clustering techniques. The method allows us to identify major lithologies by their petrophysical signatures. Remapping the clusters into the subsurface reveals the distribution of basin sediments, prebasin sedimentary rocks, and crystalline basement. The DSB shows an asymmetric structure with thickness variation from 5 km in the west to 13 km in the east. Most importantly, a well-defined body

Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

2015-01-01

The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (tsunami (>10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

Coastal evidence for Holocene subduction-zone earthquakes and tsunamis in central Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Dure, Tina; Cisternas, Marco; Horton, Benjamin; Ely, Lisa; Nelson, Alan R.; Wesson, Robert L.; Pilarczyk, Jessica

2015-01-01

The ∼500-year historical record of seismicity along the central Chile coast (30–34°S) is characterized by a series of ∼M 8.0–8.5 earthquakes followed by low tsunamis (10 m), but the frequency of such large events is unknown. We extend the seismic history of central Chile through a study of a lowland stratigraphic sequence along the metropolitan coast north of Valparaíso (33°S). At this site, higher relative sea level during the mid Holocene created a tidal marsh and the accommodation space necessary for sediment that preserves earthquake and tsunami evidence. Within this 2600-yr-long sequence, we traced six laterally continuous sand beds probably deposited by high tsunamis. Plant remains that underlie the sand beds were radiocarbon dated to 6200, 5600, 5000, 4400, 3800, and 3700 cal yr BP. Sediment properties and diatom assemblages of the sand beds—for example, anomalous marine planktonic diatoms and upward fining of silt-sized diatom valves—point to a marine sediment source and high-energy deposition. Grain-size analysis shows a strong similarity between inferred tsunami deposits and modern coastal sediment. Upward fining sequences characteristic of suspension deposition are present in five of the six sand beds. Despite the lack of significant lithologic changes between the sedimentary units under- and overlying tsunami deposits, we infer that the increase in freshwater siliceous microfossils in overlying units records coseismic uplift concurrent with the deposition of five of the sand beds. During our mid-Holocene window of evidence preservation, the mean recurrence interval of earthquakes and tsunamis is ∼500 years. Our findings imply that the frequency of historical earthquakes in central Chile is not representative of the greatest earthquakes and tsunamis that the central Chilean subduction zone has produced.

The analysis of historical seismograms: an important tool for seismic hazard assessment. Case histories from French and Italian earthquakes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pino, N.A.

2011-01-01

Seismic hazard assessment relies on the knowledge of the source characteristics of past earthquakes. Unfortunately, seismic waveform analysis, representing the most powerful tool for the investigation of earthquake source parameters, is only possible for events occurred in the last 100-120 years, i.e., since seismographs with known response function were developed. Nevertheless, during this time significant earthquakes have been recorded by such instruments and today, also thanks to technological progress, these data can be recovered and analysed by means of modern techniques. In this paper, aiming at giving a general sketch of possible analyses and attainable results in historical seismogram studies, I briefly describe the major difficulties in processing the original waveforms and present a review of the results that I obtained from previous seismogram analysis of selected significant historical earthquakes occurred during the first decades of the 20. century, including (A) the December 28, 1908, Messina straits (southern Italy), (B) the June 11, 1909, Lambesc (southern France) - both of which are the strongest ever recorded instrumentally in their respective countries - and (C) the July 13, 1930, Irpinia (southern Italy) events. For these earthquakes, the major achievements are represented by the assessment of the seismic moment (A, B, C), the geometry and kinematics of faulting (B, C), the fault length and an approximate slip distribution (A, C). The source characteristics of the studied events have also been interpreted in the frame of the tectonic environment active in the respective region of interest. In spite of the difficulties inherent to the investigation of old seismic data, these results demonstrate the invaluable and irreplaceable role of historical seismogram analysis in defining the local seismo-genic potential and, ultimately, for assessing the seismic hazard. The retrieved information is crucial in areas where important civil engineering works

Frictional properties and slip stability of active faults within carbonate-evaporite sequences: The role of dolomite and anhydrite

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scuderi, M.M.; Niemeijer, A.R.; Collettini, C.; Marone, C.

2013-01-01

Seismological observations show that many destructive earthquakes nucleate within, or propagate through, thick sequences of carbonates and evaporites. For example, along the Apennines range (Italy) carbonate and evaporite sequences are present at hypocentral depths for recent major earthquakes

Scale-free networks of earthquakes and aftershocks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baiesi, Marco; Paczuski, Maya

2004-01-01

We propose a metric to quantify correlations between earthquakes. The metric consists of a product involving the time interval and spatial distance between two events, as well as the magnitude of the first one. According to this metric, events typically are strongly correlated to only one or a few preceding ones. Thus a classification of events as foreshocks, main shocks, or aftershocks emerges automatically without imposing predetermined space-time windows. In the simplest network construction, each earthquake receives an incoming link from its most correlated predecessor. The number of aftershocks for any event, identified by its outgoing links, is found to be scale free with exponent γ=2.0(1). The original Omori law with p=1 emerges as a robust feature of seismicity, holding up to years even for aftershock sequences initiated by intermediate magnitude events. The broad distribution of distances between earthquakes and their linked aftershocks suggests that aftershock collection with fixed space windows is not appropriate

Earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

Identifying Fault Connections of the Southern Pacific-North American Plate Boundary Using Triggered Slip and Crustal Velocities

Science.gov (United States)

Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Rundle, J. B.; Parker, J. W.; Granat, R.; Heflin, M. B.; Pierce, M. E.; Wang, J.; Gunson, M.; Lyzenga, G. A.

2017-12-01

The 2010 M7.2 El Mayor - Cucapah earthquake caused extensive triggering of slip on faults proximal to the Salton Trough in southern California. Triggered slip and postseismic motions that have continued for over five years following the earthquake highlight connections between the El Mayor - Cucapah rupture and the network of faults that branch out along the southern Pacific - North American Plate Boundary. Coseismic triggering follows a network of conjugate faults from the northern end of the rupture to the Coachella segment of the southernmost San Andreas fault. Larger aftershocks and postseismic motions favor connections to the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults further west. The 2012 Brawley Swarm can be considered part of the branching on the Imperial Valley or east side of the plate boundary. Cluster analysis of long-term GPS velocities using Lloyds Algorithm, identifies bifurcation of the Pacific - North American plate boundary; The San Jacinto fault joins with the southern San Andreas fault, and the Salton Trough and Coachella segment of the San Andreas fault join with the Eastern California Shear Zone. The clustering analysis does not identify throughgoing deformation connecting the Coachella segment of the San Andreas fault with the rest of the San Andreas fault system through the San Gorgonio Pass. This observation is consistent with triggered slip from both the 1992 Landers and 2010 El Mayor - Cucapah earthquakes that follows the plate boundary bifurcation and with paleoseismic evidence of smaller earthquakes in the San Gorgonio Pass.

Relocation of the 2010-2013 near the north coast of Papua earthquake sequence using Modified Joint Hypocenter Determination (MJHD) method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomo, Dimas; Daryono,; Subakti, Hendri

2015-01-01

The accuracy of earthquake hypocenter position is necessary to analyze the tectonic conditions. This study aims to: (1) relocate the mainshock and aftershocks of the large earthquakes in Papua region i.e. June 16, 2010, April 21, 2012 and April 06, 2013 earthquake (2) determine the true fault plane, (3) estimate the area of the fracture, and (4) analyze the advantages and disadvantages of relocation with MJHD method in benefits for tectonic studies. This study used Modified Joint Hypocenter Determination (MJHD) method. Using P arrival phase data reported by the BMKG and openly available from website repogempa.bmkg.go.id, we relocated the mainshock of this large significant earthquake and its aftershocks. Then we identified the prefered fault planes from the candidate fault planes provided by the global CMT catalogue. The position of earthquakes was successfully relocated. The earthquakes mostly were clustered around the mainshock. Earthquakes that not clustered around mainshock are considered to be different mechanism from the mainshock. Relocation results indicate that the mainshock fault plane of June 16, 2010 earthquake is a field with strike 332o, dip 80o and −172o slip, the mainshock fault plane of April 21, 2012 earthquake is a field with strike 82o, dip 84o and 2o slip, the mainshock fault plane of April 06, 2013 earthquake is a field with strike 339o, dip 56o and −137o slip. Fault plane area estimated by cross section graphical method is an area of 2816.0 km2 (June 16, 2010), 906.2 km2 (April 21, 2012) and 1984.3 km2 (April 06, 2013). MJHD method has the advantage that it can calculate a lot of earthquakes simultaneously and has a station correction to account for lateral heterogeneity of the earth. This method successfully provides significant changes to improve the position of the depth of earthquakes that most of the hypocenter depth manually specified as a fixed depth (± 10 km). But this method cannot be sure that the hypocenters derived from the

From Data-Sharing to Model-Sharing: SCEC and the Development of Earthquake System Science (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, T. H.

2009-12-01

Earthquake system science seeks to construct system-level models of earthquake phenomena and use them to predict emergent seismic behavior—an ambitious enterprise that requires high degree of interdisciplinary, multi-institutional collaboration. This presentation will explore model-sharing structures that have been successful in promoting earthquake system science within the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). These include disciplinary working groups to aggregate data into community models; numerical-simulation working groups to investigate system-specific phenomena (process modeling) and further improve the data models (inverse modeling); and interdisciplinary working groups to synthesize predictive system-level models. SCEC has developed a cyberinfrastructure, called the Community Modeling Environment, that can distribute the community models; manage large suites of numerical simulations; vertically integrate the hardware, software, and wetware needed for system-level modeling; and promote the interactions among working groups needed for model validation and refinement. Various socio-scientific structures contribute to successful model-sharing. Two of the most important are “communities of trust” and collaborations between government and academic scientists on mission-oriented objectives. The latter include improvements of earthquake forecasts and seismic hazard models and the use of earthquake scenarios in promoting public awareness and disaster management.

The Challenge of Centennial Earthquakes to Improve Modern Earthquake Engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saragoni, G. Rodolfo

2008-01-01

The recent commemoration of the centennial of the San Francisco and Valparaiso 1906 earthquakes has given the opportunity to reanalyze their damages from modern earthquake engineering perspective. These two earthquakes plus Messina Reggio Calabria 1908 had a strong impact in the birth and developing of earthquake engineering. The study of the seismic performance of some up today existing buildings, that survive centennial earthquakes, represent a challenge to better understand the limitations of our in use earthquake design methods. Only Valparaiso 1906 earthquake, of the three considered centennial earthquakes, has been repeated again as the Central Chile, 1985, Ms = 7.8 earthquake. In this paper a comparative study of the damage produced by 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes is done in the neighborhood of Valparaiso harbor. In this study the only three centennial buildings of 3 stories that survived both earthquakes almost undamaged were identified. Since for 1985 earthquake accelerogram at El Almendral soil conditions as well as in rock were recoded, the vulnerability analysis of these building is done considering instrumental measurements of the demand. The study concludes that good performance of these buildings in the epicentral zone of large earthquakes can not be well explained by modern earthquake engineering methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use in the future of more suitable instrumental parameters, such as the destructiveness potential factor, to describe earthquake demand

The SCEC/USGS dynamic earthquake rupture code verification exercise

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, R.A.; Barall, M.; Archuleta, R.; Dunham, E.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Ampuero, J.-P.; Bhat, H.; Cruz-Atienza, Victor M.; Dalguer, L.; Dawson, P.; Day, S.; Duan, B.; Ely, G.; Kaneko, Y.; Kase, Y.; Lapusta, N.; Liu, Yajing; Ma, S.; Oglesby, D.; Olsen, K.; Pitarka, A.; Song, S.; Templeton, E.

2009-01-01

Numerical simulations of earthquake rupture dynamics are now common, yet it has been difficult to test the validity of these simulations because there have been few field observations and no analytic solutions with which to compare the results. This paper describes the Southern California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey (SCEC/USGS) Dynamic Earthquake Rupture Code Verification Exercise, where codes that simulate spontaneous rupture dynamics in three dimensions are evaluated and the results produced by these codes are compared using Web-based tools. This is the first time that a broad and rigorous examination of numerous spontaneous rupture codes has been performed—a significant advance in this science. The automated process developed to attain this achievement provides for a future where testing of codes is easily accomplished.Scientists who use computer simulations to understand earthquakes utilize a range of techniques. Most of these assume that earthquakes are caused by slip at depth on faults in the Earth, but hereafter the strategies vary. Among the methods used in earthquake mechanics studies are kinematic approaches and dynamic approaches.The kinematic approach uses a computer code that prescribes the spatial and temporal evolution of slip on the causative fault (or faults). These types of simulations are very helpful, especially since they can be used in seismic data inversions to relate the ground motions recorded in the field to slip on the fault(s) at depth. However, these kinematic solutions generally provide no insight into the physics driving the fault slip or information about why the involved fault(s) slipped that much (or that little). In other words, these kinematic solutions may lack information about the physical dynamics of earthquake rupture that will be most helpful in forecasting future events.To help address this issue, some researchers use computer codes to numerically simulate earthquakes and construct dynamic, spontaneous

Temporal characteristics of some aftershock sequences in Bulgaria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Solakov

1999-06-01

Full Text Available We apply statistical analysis to study the temporal distribution of aftershocks in aftershock sequences of five earthquakes which occurred in Bulgaria. We use the maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters of the modified Omori formula for aftershock sequences which is directly based on a time series. We find that: the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameter p show a regional variation, with lower values of the decay rate in North Bulgaria; the modified Omori formula provides an appropriate representation of temporal variation of the aftershock activity in North Bulgaria; the aftershock sequences in South Bulgaria are best modeled by the combination of an ordinary aftershock sequence with secondary aftershock activity. A plot of the cumulative number of events versus the frequency-linearized time t clearly demonstrates a transition from aftershock to foreshock activity prior to the second 1986 Strazhitsa (North Bulgaria earthquake.

A Seismo-Tectonic Signal From Offshore Sedimentation: The 2010 Haiti Earthquake and Prior Events

Science.gov (United States)

McHugh, C. M.; Seeber, L.; Cormier, M.; Hornbach, M.; Momplaisir, R.; Waldhauser, F.; Sorlien, C. C.; Steckler, M. S.; Gulick, S.

2011-12-01

The Mw 7.0 January 2010 earthquake in Haiti was one of the deadliest in history. It involved multiple faults along or near the main Enriquillo-Plantain Garden Fault (EPGF). This left-lateral transform is a branch of the northern Caribbean plate boundary across southern Hispaniola. The main rupture was strike-slip but almost all aftershocks had thrust mechanisms, and surface deformation may have been concentrated on anticline forelimbs driven by blind thrust faults. Earthquake generated mass-wasting and turbidity currents were sampled from the Canal du Sud slope (~1000 m water depth), a basin at 1500 m, and the deepest part of the strait at 1700 m. The turbidites were strongly correlated by 234Th with a half-life of 24 days. In the deepest area, a turbidite-homogenite unit (T-H) extends over 50 km2 and is composed of basal sand beds 5 cm thick and 50 cm of mud above. The sedimentary structures in the sand were linked to oscillatory motions by internal seiches. The T-H units recovered from the slope and deep basin are similar in composition. The Leogane Delta, upslope from the sampling sites, is rich in this lithology that has been linked to oceanic basement rocks exposed on the southern Haitian peninsula. In contrast, the T-H unit recovered from the basin at 1500 m is perched behind a thrust anticline and has a greater concentration of Ca derived from Ca rich sources such as the Tapion Ridge on the southern peninsula. The Tapion Ridge is a compressional structure associated with a restraining bend along the EPGF. The T-H unit beneath the 2010 deposit has a 14C age of 2400 cal yrs BP, and interpreted as an earthquake triggered deposit. It is nearly identical in thickness, composition and fine structures to the 2010 T-H. Notably absent from the record are younger turbidites that could have been linked to the historic 1770 AD and other similar earthquakes expected from GPS rates across the EPGF. Two hypotheses are being considered for this long gap in T-H sedimentation

Proposal of methodology of tsunami accident sequence analysis induced by earthquake using DQFM methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muta, Hitoshi; Muramatsu, Ken

2017-01-01

Since the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power station accident, the Japanese regulatory body has improved and upgraded the regulation of nuclear power plants, and continuous effort is required to enhance risk management in the mid- to long term. Earthquakes and tsunamis are considered as the most important risks, and the establishment of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies for these events is a major issue of current PRA. The Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) addressed the PRA methodology for tsunamis induced by earthquakes, which is one of the methodologies that should be enhanced step by step for the improvement and maturity of PRA techniques. The AESJ standard for the procedure of seismic PRA for nuclear power plants in 2015 provides the basic concept of the methodology; however, details of the application to the actual plant PRA model have not been sufficiently provided. This study proposes a detailed PRA methodology for tsunamis induced by earthquakes using the DQFM methodology, which contributes to improving the safety of nuclear power plants. Furthermore, this study also states the issues which need more research. (author)

Kinds of damage that could result from a great earthquake in the central United States

Science.gov (United States)

Hooper, M.G.; Algermissen, S.T.

1985-01-01

In the winter of 1811-12 a series of three great earthquakes occurred in the New Madrid, Missouri seismic zone in the central United States. In addition to the three principal shocks, at least 15 other earthquakes of intensity VIII or more occurred within a year of the first large earthquake on December 16, 1811. The three main shocks were felt over the entire eastern United States. They were strong enough to cause minor damage cause minor damage as far away as Indiana and Ohio on the north, the Carolinas on the east, and southern Mississippi to the south. They were strong enough to cause severe or structural damage in parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Arkansas. A later section in this article describes what happened in the epicentral region. Fortunately, few people lived in the severely shaken area in 1811; that is not the case today. What would happen if a series of earthquakes as large and numerous as the "New Madrid" earthquakes were to occur in the New Madrid seismic zone today?

Spatially limited mud turbidites on the Cascadia margin: segmented earthquake ruptures?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Goldfinger

2013-08-01

Full Text Available A series of 23 thin, mostly mud-silt turbidites are found interspersed between larger, well-dated and regionally correlated paleoseismic sandy turbidites that extend along most of the Cascadia margin, northwestern United States. Investigation of the structure, distribution, and sedimentology of these thin mud-silt units supports the interpretation of these units as turbidites originating on the continental slope. Interpretation of mud turbidites is inhibited by bioturbation and lower response to analytical and imaging techniques; nevertheless most of the 23 interpreted beds exhibit most of the characteristics of coarser turbidites. These characteristics include sharp bases, fining upward sequences, darker color, increased gamma and CT density and magnetic susceptibility relative to the hemipelagic background, sparse microfossils, high lithic content, and evidence of transport from marine sources on the continental slope. New core data from sites south of Rogue Apron indicate that sandy and muddy turbidites may be correlated at least 150 km south to Trinidad Plunge Pool for the period ~ 4800 yr BP to present. Many of the mud turbidites initially described at Rogue Apron coarsen southward, becoming sandy turbidites. High-resolution Chirp seismic profiles reveal that turbidite stratigraphy along the base of the southern Cascadia continental slope is continuous, with little variation for at least 240 km along strike. The Chirp data show that turbidites along the Cascadia base of slope are ubiquitous, and likely not sourced solely from submarine canyon mouths, but may also have been delivered to the proximal abyssal plain as sheet flows from the open continental slope and coalescing local sources. Regional stratigraphy reveals that hemipelagic sedimentation rates and total Holocene turbidite thickness and mass are similar at widely separated sites, yet the total thickness of the Holocene section is greater by a factor of two in southern Cascadia

Pakistan’s Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards Potential Impact on Infrastructure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GEORGE PARARAS-CARAYANNIS

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Interaction of the Indian, Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates has resulted in the formation of major active fault systems in South Asia. Compression along the tectonic boundaries results in thrust or reverse type of faulting and zones of crustal deformation characterized by high seismic activity and continuing Orogenesis. The more intense seismic activity occurs near regions of thrust faulting which is developing at the Himalayan foothills. In northern Pakistan, the Hindu Kush Mountains converge with the Karakoram Range to form a part of the Himalayan mountain system. Northern, western as well as southern Pakistan, Kashmir and northern India and Afghanistan are along such zones of high seismic activity. In Pakistan, most of the earthquakes occur in the north and western regions along the boundary of the Indian tectonic plate with the Iranian and Afghan micro-plates. The active zone extends from the Makran region in the southwest to the Hazara-Kashmir syntaxial bend in the north. Southwest Pakistan is vulnerable to both earthquake and tsunami hazards. In 2005, earthquakes devastated northern Pakistan and Kashmir and severely affected the cities of Muzaffarabad, Islamadad and Rawalpindi, causing severe destruction to the infrastructure of the northern region. A major earthquake along an extensive transform fault system in 1935 destroyed the city Quetta and the adjoining region. A major earthquake along the northern Arabian sea in 1945 generated a very destructive tsunami along the coasts of Baluchistan and Sindh Provinces. The region near Karachi is vulnerable as it is located near four major faults where destructive earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred in the past. Given Pakistan’s vulnerability and extensive infrastructure development in recent years, the present study reviews briefly the earthquake and tsunami risk factors and assesses the impact that such disasters can have on the country’s critical infrastructure - which includes

On southern Hyogo-prefecture earthquake and some related activities in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shibata, H.

1995-01-01

This paper consists of three parts. At first the reporter discusses on the earthquake event on January 17, 1995, and then on the summary of the report of examining the adequacy of the guideline of seismic design of nuclear power plants in Japan by the task group, Nuclear Safety Commission. And also on the activity of 'the sub-committee on the research of seismic safety' for the future research subjects during 1996-2000 F.Y. (author)

Expanding the Delivery of Rapid Earthquake Information and Warnings for Response and Recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Blanpied, M. L.; McBride, S.; Hardebeck, J.; Michael, A. J.; van der Elst, N.

2017-12-01

Scientific organizations like the United States Geological Survey (USGS) release information to support effective responses during an earthquake crisis. Information is delivered to the White House, the National Command Center, the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security (including FEMA), Transportation, Energy, and Interior. Other crucial stakeholders include state officials and decision makers, emergency responders, numerous public and private infrastructure management centers (e.g., highways, railroads and pipelines), the media, and the public. To meet the diverse information requirements of these users, rapid earthquake notifications have been developed to be delivered by e-mail and text message, as well as a suite of earthquake information resources such as ShakeMaps, Did You Feel It?, PAGER impact estimates, and data are delivered via the web. The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system being developed for the U.S. West Coast will identify and characterize an earthquake a few seconds after it begins, estimate the likely intensity of ground shaking, and deliver brief but critically important warnings to people and infrastructure in harm's way. Currently the USGS is also developing a capability to deliver Operational Earthquake Forecasts (OEF). These provide estimates of potential seismic behavior after large earthquakes and during evolving aftershock sequences. Similar work is underway in New Zealand, Japan, and Italy. In the development of OEF forecasts, social science research conducted during these sequences indicates that aftershock forecasts are valued for a variety of reasons, from informing critical response and recovery decisions to psychologically preparing for more earthquakes. New tools will allow users to customize map-based, spatiotemporal forecasts to their specific needs. Hazard curves and other advanced information will also be available. For such authoritative information to be understood and used during the pressures of an earthquake

Earthquake prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, P.L.

1978-01-01

The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

Far-field triggering of foreshocks near the nucleation zone of the 5 September 2012 (MW 7.6) Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Walter, Jacob I.; Meng, Xiaofeng; Peng, Zhigang; Schwartz, Susan Y.; Newman, Andrew V.; Protti, Marino

2015-12-01

On 5 September 2012, a moment magnitude (MW) 7.6 earthquake occurred directly beneath the Nicoya Peninsula, an area with dense seismic and geodetic network coverage. The mainshock ruptured a portion of a previously identified locked patch that was recognized due to a decade-long effort to delineate the megathrust seismic and aseismic processes in this area. Here we conduct a comprehensive study of the seismicity prior to this event utilizing a matched-filter analysis that allows us to decrease the magnitude of catalog completeness by 1 unit. We observe a statistically significant increase in seismicity rate below the Nicoya Peninsula following the 27 August 2012 (MW 7.3) El Salvador earthquake (about 450 km to the northwest and 9 days prior to the Nicoya earthquake). Additionally, we identify a cluster of small-magnitude (earthquakes preceding the mainshock by about 35 min and within 15 km of its hypocenter. The immediate foreshock sequence occurred in the same area as those earthquakes triggered shortly after the El Salvador event; though it is not clear whether the effect of triggering from the El Salvador event persisted until the foreshock sequence given the uncertainties in seismicity rates from a relatively small number of earthquakes. If megathrust earthquakes at such distances can induce significant increases in seismicity during the days before another larger event, this sequence strengthens the need for real-time seismicity monitoring for large earthquake forecasting.

Earthquake Complex Network Analysis Before and After the Mw 8.2 Earthquake in Iquique, Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Pasten, D.

2017-12-01

The earthquake complex networks have shown that they are abble to find specific features in seismic data set. In space, this networkshave shown a scale-free behavior for the probability distribution of connectivity, in directed networks and theyhave shown a small-world behavior, for the undirected networks.In this work, we present an earthquake complex network analysis for the large earthquake Mw 8.2 in the north ofChile (near to Iquique) in April, 2014. An earthquake complex network is made dividing the three dimensional space intocubic cells, if one of this cells contain an hypocenter, we name this cell like a node. The connections between nodes aregenerated in time. We follow the time sequence of seismic events and we are making the connections betweennodes. Now, we have two different networks: a directed and an undirected network. Thedirected network takes in consideration the time-direction of the connections, that is very important for the connectivityof the network: we are considering the connectivity, ki of the i-th node, like the number of connections going out ofthe node i plus the self-connections (if two seismic events occurred successive in time in the same cubic cell, we havea self-connection). The undirected network is made removing the direction of the connections and the self-connectionsfrom the directed network. For undirected networks, we are considering only if two nodes are or not connected.We have built a directed complex network and an undirected complex network, before and after the large earthquake in Iquique. We have used magnitudes greater than Mw = 1.0 and Mw = 3.0. We found that this method can recognize the influence of thissmall seismic events in the behavior of the network and we found that the size of the cell used to build the network isanother important factor to recognize the influence of the large earthquake in this complex system. This method alsoshows a difference in the values of the critical exponent γ (for the probability

Earthquake early warning system using real-time signal processing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leach, R.R. Jr.; Dowla, F.U.

1996-02-01

An earthquake warning system has been developed to provide a time series profile from which vital parameters such as the time until strong shaking begins, the intensity of the shaking, and the duration of the shaking, can be derived. Interaction of different types of ground motion and changes in the elastic properties of geological media throughout the propagation path result in a highly nonlinear function. We use neural networks to model these nonlinearities and develop learning techniques for the analysis of temporal precursors occurring in the emerging earthquake seismic signal. The warning system is designed to analyze the first-arrival from the three components of an earthquake signal and instantaneously provide a profile of impending ground motion, in as little as 0.3 sec after first ground motion is felt at the sensors. For each new data sample, at a rate of 25 samples per second, the complete profile of the earthquake is updated. The profile consists of a magnitude-related estimate as well as an estimate of the envelope of the complete earthquake signal. The envelope provides estimates of damage parameters, such as time until peak ground acceleration (PGA) and duration. The neural network based system is trained using seismogram data from more than 400 earthquakes recorded in southern California. The system has been implemented in hardware using silicon accelerometers and a standard microprocessor. The proposed warning units can be used for site-specific applications, distributed networks, or to enhance existing distributed networks. By producing accurate, and informative warnings, the system has the potential to significantly minimize the hazards of catastrophic ground motion. Detailed system design and performance issues, including error measurement in a simple warning scenario are discussed in detail.

Earthquake clustering in modern seismicity and its relationship with strong historical earthquakes around Beijing, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jian; Main, Ian G.; Musson, Roger M. W.

2017-11-01

Beijing, China's capital city, is located in a typical intraplate seismic belt, with relatively high-quality instrumental catalogue data available since 1970. The Chinese historical earthquake catalogue contains six strong historical earthquakes of Ms ≥ 6 around Beijing, the earliest in 294 AD. This poses a significant potential hazard to one of the most densely populated and economically active parts of China. In some intraplate areas, persistent clusters of events associated with historical events can occur over centuries, for example, the ongoing sequence in the New Madrid zone of the eastern US. Here we will examine the evidence for such persistent clusters around Beijing. We introduce a metric known as the `seismic density index' that quantifies the degree of clustering of seismic energy release. For a given map location, this multi-dimensional index depends on the number of events, their magnitudes, and the distances to the locations of the surrounding population of earthquakes. We apply the index to modern instrumental catalogue data between 1970 and 2014, and identify six clear candidate zones. We then compare these locations to earthquake epicentre and seismic intensity data for the six largest historical earthquakes. Each candidate zone contains one of the six historical events, and the location of peak intensity is within 5 km or so of the reported epicentre in five of these cases. In one case—the great Ms 8 earthquake of 1679—the peak is closer to the area of strongest shaking (Intensity XI or more) than the reported epicentre. The present-day event rates are similar to those predicted by the modified Omori law but there is no evidence of ongoing decay in event rates. Accordingly, the index is more likely to be picking out the location of persistent weaknesses in the lithosphere. Our results imply zones of high seismic density index could be used in principle to indicate the location of unrecorded historical of palaeoseismic events, in China and

Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network: Recent Developments

Science.gov (United States)

Bhadha, R.; Chen, S.; Crummey, J.; Hauksson, E.; Solanki, K.; Thomas, V. I.; Watkins, M.; Yip, R.; Yu, E.; Given, D.; Peats, R.; Schwarz, S.

2010-12-01

The SCSN is the modern digital ground motion seismic network in Southern California and performs the following tasks: 1) Operates remote seismic stations and the central data processing systems in Pasadena; 2) Generates and reports real-time products including location, magnitude, ShakeMap, and others; 3) Responds to FEMA, CalEMA, media, and public inquiries about earthquakes; 4) Manages the production, archival, and distribution of waveforms, phase picks, and other data at the SCEDC; 5) Contributes to development and maintenance of the ANSS Quake Monitoring System (AQMS) software to add new features and improve robustness; 6) Supports the deployment of AQMS to other ANSS member regional seismic networks. The public regularly accesses the CISN, SCSN, and SCEDC web pages for up-to-date quake info and more than 230,000 users subscribe to the Electronic Notification System (ENS) which sends rapid notifications via email and cell phones. We distribute our products via Internet (EIDS), email, and paging, to USGS in Reston and Golden, FEMA, CalEMA, local governments, partner members, and other subscribers. We have developed CISN Display and provide ShakeCast for customers who require real-time earthquake information. The SCSN also exchanges waveform, phase pick, and amplitude data in real-time with several other partner networks, including Menlo Park, UCB, UNR, Anza network, the Tsunami Warning Centers, IRIS, and the NEIC. We operate a number of 24/7 on-call rotations to provide quick response to verify seismic events as well as addressing systems and telemetry issues. As part of our goals to improve quality, robustness, and coverage, some of our recent efforts include: 1) Converting the digital stations in the network to Q330 dataloggers; 2) Developing command and control capabilities such as automated mass re-centering; 3) Migration from serial to Ethernet communications; 4) Clustering of data acquisition servers for fail-over to improve data availability; 5) Use of

Earthquake sequence simulations of a fault in a viscoelastic material with a spectral boundary integral equation method: The effect of interseismic stress relaxation on a behavior of a rate-weakening patch

Science.gov (United States)

Miyake, Y.; Noda, H.

2017-12-01

Earthquake sequences involve many processes in a wide range of time scales, from quasistatic loading to dynamic rupture. At a depth of brittle-plastic transitional and deeper, rock behaves as a viscous fluid in a long timescale, but as an elastic material in a short timescale. Viscoelastic stress relaxation may be important in the interseismic periods at the depth, near the deeper limit of the seismogenic layer or the region of slow slip events (SSEs) [Namiki et al., 2014 and references therein]. In the present study, we implemented the viscoelastic effect (Maxwell material) in fully-dynamic earthquake sequence simulations using a spectral boundary integral equation method (SBIEM) [e.g., Lapusta et al., 2000]. SBIEM is efficient in calculation of convolutional terms for dynamic stress transfer, and the problem size is limited by the amount of memory available. Linear viscoelasticity could be implemented by convolution of slip rate history and Green's function, but this method requires additional memory and thus not suitable for the implementation to the present code. Instead, we integrated the evolution of "effective slip" distribution, which gives static stress distribution when convolved with static elastic Green's function. This method works only for simple viscoelastic property distributions, but such models are suitable for numerical experiments aiming basic understanding of the system behavior because of the virtue of SBIEM, the ability of fine on-fault spatial resolution and efficient computation utilizing the fast Fourier transformation. In the present study, we examined the effect of viscoelasticity on earthquake sequences of a fault with a rate-weakening patch. A series of simulations with various relaxation time tc revealed that as decreasing tc, recurrence intervals of earthquakes increases and seismicity ultimately disappears. As long as studied, this transition to aseismic behavior is NOT associated with SSEs. In a case where the rate-weakening patch

History of ancient megathrust earthquakes beneath metropolitan Tokyo inferred from coastal lowland deposits

Science.gov (United States)

Mannen, Kazutaka; Yoong, Kim Haeng; Suzuki, Shigeru; Matsushima, Yoshiaki; Ota, Yuki; Kain, Claire L.; Goff, James

2018-02-01

Metropolitan Tokyo is located directly above a subduction zone that has generated two megathrust earthquakes in the past 300 years. However, the timing of older megathrusts on this margin is poorly understood. In this study, we aim to constrain the timings of past megathrust earthquakes, using coastal stratigraphy, paleoecology, radiocarbon dating and archaeological records from coastal lowlands. An investigation of 13 boreholes in the southern coastal area of metropolitan Tokyo found evidence for 4 m of uplift in a 6000-year period. However, we found that net vertical displacement in the last 1000 years is approximately zero. Results suggest that preservation of usually ephemeral lagoon sediments occurred on three occasions in the past 1000 years, and radiocarbon dating results show that the timings of these preservation episodes are close to that of major historical earthquakes. We thus attribute the intermittent preservation of the ephemeral lagoon deposits to coseismic uplift caused by the megathrust earthquakes. The candidates of the megathrust earthquakes are events that took place in 1703 CE, the 13th century, and 878 CE. Since these events produced no net vertical displacement due to inter-seismic subsidence, we propose that earthquakes responsible for long-term uplift of this region took place prior to the 9th century. This research also demonstrates the value of preserved intertidal sediments as paleoseismological archives where net tectonic displacement is neutral.

Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

Science.gov (United States)

Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr, Sedigheh; Zamani, Ahmad; Razavipour, Fatemeh; Boostani, Reza

2017-08-01

Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.

Great earthquake potential in Oregon and Washington: An overview of recent coastal geologic studies and possible segmentation of the central Cascadia subduction zone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, A.R.; Personius, S.F.

1990-01-01

Fundamental questions in earthquake hazards research in the Pacific Northwest concern the magnitude and recurrence of great earthquakes in the Cascadia subduction zone in Oregon and Washington. Geologic work of the last few years has produced convincing evidence for coseismic subsidence along the Washington and Oregon coasts. Regional subsidence recorded by estuarine deposits suggests that plate-interface earthquakes of at least M w 8 (>100-km-long ruptures) occurred during the late Holocene in northern Oregon and southern Washington. Differences in the types of coastal marsh sequences between northern and south-central Oregon, however, suggest that regional coastal subsidence does not extend south of about 45.5 degrees N along the Oregon coast. North of this latitude, the coast may intersect the seaward edge of a zone of coseismic subsidence that continues southward onshore. Alternatively, the Cascadia subduction zone is segmented near 44-45 degrees N; a segment boundary at this location would suggest that plate-interface events near M w 8 along the central CSZ would be more frequent than larger (M w 9) events. South of this boundary in the Coos Bay region, the tectonic framework developed through mapping and dating of marine and fluvial terraces indicates that many episodes of abrupt marsh burial in south-central Oregon are best interpreted as the product of deformation on local structures. Some of the local deformation could be associated with moderate earthquakes (M s <6). At most sites in south-central Oregon, however, it is still unclear whether coseismic events were responses to local faulting or folding, to regional deformation during great plate-interface earthquakes, or to both. This study has potential implications for risk assessments for light water reactors in North America

The TeraShake Computational Platform for Large-Scale Earthquake Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Yifeng; Olsen, Kim; Chourasia, Amit; Moore, Reagan; Maechling, Philip; Jordan, Thomas

Geoscientific and computer science researchers with the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) are conducting a large-scale, physics-based, computationally demanding earthquake system science research program with the goal of developing predictive models of earthquake processes. The computational demands of this program continue to increase rapidly as these researchers seek to perform physics-based numerical simulations of earthquake processes for larger meet the needs of this research program, a multiple-institution team coordinated by SCEC has integrated several scientific codes into a numerical modeling-based research tool we call the TeraShake computational platform (TSCP). A central component in the TSCP is a highly scalable earthquake wave propagation simulation program called the TeraShake anelastic wave propagation (TS-AWP) code. In this chapter, we describe how we extended an existing, stand-alone, wellvalidated, finite-difference, anelastic wave propagation modeling code into the highly scalable and widely used TS-AWP and then integrated this code into the TeraShake computational platform that provides end-to-end (initialization to analysis) research capabilities. We also describe the techniques used to enhance the TS-AWP parallel performance on TeraGrid supercomputers, as well as the TeraShake simulations phases including input preparation, run time, data archive management, and visualization. As a result of our efforts to improve its parallel efficiency, the TS-AWP has now shown highly efficient strong scaling on over 40K processors on IBM’s BlueGene/L Watson computer. In addition, the TSCP has developed into a computational system that is useful to many members of the SCEC community for performing large-scale earthquake simulations.

Transpressional rupture of an unmapped fault during the 2010 Haiti earthquake

KAUST Repository

Calais, Éric

2010-10-24

On 12 January 2010, a Mw7.0 earthquake struck the Port-au-Prince region of Haiti. The disaster killed more than 200,000 people and caused an estimated $8 billion in damages, about 100% of the country?s gross domestic product. The earthquake was initially thought to have ruptured the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault of the southern peninsula of Haiti, which is one of two main strike-slip faults inferred to accommodate the 2cmyr -1 relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates. Here we use global positioning system and radar interferometry measurements of ground motion to show that the earthquake involved a combination of horizontal and contractional slip, causing transpressional motion. This result is consistent with the long-term pattern of strain accumulation in Hispaniola. The unexpected contractional deformation caused by the earthquake and by the pattern of strain accumulation indicates present activity on faults other than the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. We show that the earthquake instead ruptured an unmapped north-dipping fault, called the Léogâne fault. The Léogâne fault lies subparallel tog-but is different fromg-the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. We suggest that the 2010 earthquake may have activated the southernmost front of the Haitian fold-and-thrust belt as it abuts against the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. As the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault did not release any significant accumulated elastic strain, it remains a significant seismic threat for Haiti and for Port-au-Prince in particular. © 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Transpressional rupture of an unmapped fault during the 2010 Haiti earthquake

KAUST Repository

Calais, É ric; Freed, Andrew M.; Mattioli, Glen S.; Amelung, Falk; Jonsson, Sigurjon; Jansma, Pamela E.; Hong, Sanghoon; Dixon, Timothy H.; Pré petit, Claude; Momplaisir, Roberte

2010-01-01

On 12 January 2010, a Mw7.0 earthquake struck the Port-au-Prince region of Haiti. The disaster killed more than 200,000 people and caused an estimated $8 billion in damages, about 100% of the country?s gross domestic product. The earthquake was initially thought to have ruptured the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault of the southern peninsula of Haiti, which is one of two main strike-slip faults inferred to accommodate the 2cmyr -1 relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates. Here we use global positioning system and radar interferometry measurements of ground motion to show that the earthquake involved a combination of horizontal and contractional slip, causing transpressional motion. This result is consistent with the long-term pattern of strain accumulation in Hispaniola. The unexpected contractional deformation caused by the earthquake and by the pattern of strain accumulation indicates present activity on faults other than the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. We show that the earthquake instead ruptured an unmapped north-dipping fault, called the Léogâne fault. The Léogâne fault lies subparallel tog-but is different fromg-the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. We suggest that the 2010 earthquake may have activated the southernmost front of the Haitian fold-and-thrust belt as it abuts against the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault. As the Enriquillog-Plantain Garden fault did not release any significant accumulated elastic strain, it remains a significant seismic threat for Haiti and for Port-au-Prince in particular. © 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Strategic crisis and risk communication during a prolonged natural hazard event: lessons learned from the Canterbury earthquake sequence

Science.gov (United States)

Wein, A. M.; Potter, S.; Becker, J.; Doyle, E. E.; Jones, J. L.

2015-12-01

While communication products are developed for monitoring and forecasting hazard events, less thought may have been given to crisis and risk communication plans. During larger (and rarer) events responsible science agencies may find themselves facing new and intensified demands for information and unprepared for effectively resourcing communications. In a study of the communication of aftershock information during the 2010-12 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (New Zealand), issues are identified and implications for communication strategy noted. Communication issues during the responses included reliability and timeliness of communication channels for immediate and short decision time frames; access to scientists by those who needed information; unfamiliar emergency management frameworks; information needs of multiple audiences, audience readiness to use the information; and how best to convey empathy during traumatic events and refer to other information sources about what to do and how to cope. Other science communication challenges included meeting an increased demand for earthquake education, getting attention on aftershock forecasts; responding to rumor management; supporting uptake of information by critical infrastructure and government and for the application of scientific information in complex societal decisions; dealing with repetitive information requests; addressing diverse needs of multiple audiences for scientific information; and coordinating communications within and outside the science domain. For a science agency, a communication strategy would consider training scientists in communication, establishing relationships with university scientists and other disaster communication roles, coordinating messages, prioritizing audiences, deliberating forecasts with community leaders, identifying user needs and familiarizing them with the products ahead of time, and practicing the delivery and use of information via scenario planning and exercises.

Long-term predictability of regions and dates of strong earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Kubyshen, Alexander; Doda, Leonid; Shopin, Sergey

2016-04-01

Results on the long-term predictability of strong earthquakes are discussed. It is shown that dates of earthquakes with M>5.5 could be determined in advance of several months before the event. The magnitude and the region of approaching earthquake could be specified in the time-frame of a month before the event. Determination of number of M6+ earthquakes, which are expected to occur during the analyzed year, is performed using the special sequence diagram of seismic activity for the century time frame. Date analysis could be performed with advance of 15-20 years. Data is verified by a monthly sequence diagram of seismic activity. The number of strong earthquakes expected to occur in the analyzed month is determined by several methods having a different prediction horizon. Determination of days of potential earthquakes with M5.5+ is performed using astronomical data. Earthquakes occur on days of oppositions of Solar System planets (arranged in a single line). At that, the strongest earthquakes occur under the location of vector "Sun-Solar System barycenter" in the ecliptic plane. Details of this astronomical multivariate indicator still require further research, but it's practical significant is confirmed by practice. Another one empirical indicator of approaching earthquake M6+ is a synchronous variation of meteorological parameters: abrupt decreasing of minimal daily temperature, increasing of relative humidity, abrupt change of atmospheric pressure (RAMES method). Time difference of predicted and actual date is no more than one day. This indicator is registered 104 days before the earthquake, so it was called as Harmonic 104 or H-104. This fact looks paradoxical, but the works of A. Sytinskiy and V. Bokov on the correlation of global atmospheric circulation and seismic events give a physical basis for this empirical fact. Also, 104 days is a quarter of a Chandler period so this fact gives insight on the correlation between the anomalies of Earth orientation

An information infrastructure for earthquake science

Science.gov (United States)

Jordan, T. H.; Scec/Itr Collaboration

2003-04-01

The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), in collaboration with the San Diego Supercomputer Center, the USC Information Sciences Institute,IRIS, and the USGS, has received a large five-year grant from the NSF's ITR Program and its Geosciences Directorate to build a new information infrastructure for earthquake science. In many respects, the SCEC/ITR Project presents a microcosm of the IT efforts now being organized across the geoscience community, including the EarthScope initiative. The purpose of this presentation is to discuss the experience gained by the project thus far and lay out the challenges that lie ahead; our hope is to encourage cross-discipline collaboration in future IT advancements. Project goals have been formulated in terms of four "computational pathways" related to seismic hazard analysis (SHA). For example, Pathway 1 involves the construction of an open-source, object-oriented, and web-enabled framework for SHA computations that can incorporate a variety of earthquake forecast models, intensity-measure relationships, and site-response models, while Pathway 2 aims to utilize the predictive power of wavefield simulation in modeling time-dependent ground motion for scenario earthquakes and constructing intensity-measure relationships. The overall goal is to create a SCEC "community modeling environment" or collaboratory that will comprise the curated (on-line, documented, maintained) resources needed by researchers to develop and use these four computational pathways. Current activities include (1) the development and verification of the computational modules, (2) the standardization of data structures and interfaces needed for syntactic interoperability, (3) the development of knowledge representation and management tools, (4) the construction SCEC computational and data grid testbeds, and (5) the creation of user interfaces for knowledge-acquisition, code execution, and visualization. I will emphasize the increasing role of standardized

Using Dynamic Fourier Analysis to Discriminate Between Seismic Signals from Natural Earthquakes and Mining Explosions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria C. Mariani

2017-08-01

Full Text Available A sequence of intraplate earthquakes occurred in Arizona at the same location where miningexplosions were carried out in previous years. The explosions and some of the earthquakes generatedvery similar seismic signals. In this study Dynamic Fourier Analysis is used for discriminating signalsoriginating from natural earthquakes and mining explosions. Frequency analysis of seismogramsrecorded at regional distances shows that compared with the mining explosions the earthquake signalshave larger amplitudes in the frequency interval ~ 6 to 8 Hz and significantly smaller amplitudes inthe frequency interval ~ 2 to 4 Hz. This type of analysis permits identifying characteristics in theseismograms frequency yielding to detect potentially risky seismic events.

High resolution measurement of earthquake impacts on rock slope stability and damage using pre- and post-earthquake terrestrial laser scans

Science.gov (United States)

Hutchinson, Lauren; Stead, Doug; Rosser, Nick

2017-04-01

Understanding the behaviour of rock slopes in response to earthquake shaking is instrumental in response and relief efforts following large earthquakes as well as to ongoing risk management in earthquake affected areas. Assessment of the effects of seismic shaking on rock slope kinematics requires detailed surveys of the pre- and post-earthquake condition of the slope; however, at present, there is a lack of high resolution monitoring data from pre- and post-earthquake to facilitate characterization of seismically induced slope damage and validate models used to back-analyze rock slope behaviour during and following earthquake shaking. Therefore, there is a need for additional research where pre- and post- earthquake monitoring data is available. This paper presents the results of a direct comparison between terrestrial laser scans (TLS) collected in 2014, the year prior to the 2015 earthquake sequence, with that collected 18 months after the earthquakes and two monsoon cycles. The two datasets were collected using Riegl VZ-1000 and VZ-4000 full waveform laser scanners with high resolution (c. 0.1 m point spacing as a minimum). The scans cover the full landslide affected slope from the toe to the crest. The slope is located in Sindhupalchok District, Central Nepal which experienced some of the highest co-seismic and post-seismic landslide intensities across Nepal due to the proximity to the epicenters (<20 km) of both of the main aftershocks on April 26, 2015 (M 6.7) and May 12, 2015 (M7.3). During the 2015 earthquakes and subsequent 2015 and 2016 monsoons, the slope experienced rockfall and debris flows which are evident in satellite imagery and field photographs. Fracturing of the rock mass associated with the seismic shaking is also evident at scales not accessible through satellite and field observations. The results of change detection between the TLS datasets with an emphasis on quantification of seismically-induced slope damage is presented. Patterns in the

Studies of earthquakes stress drops, seismic scattering, and dynamic triggering in North America

Science.gov (United States)

Escudero Ayala, Christian Rene

I use the Relative Source Time Function (RSTF) method to determine the source properties of earthquakes within southeastern Alaska-northwestern Canada in a first part of the project, and earthquakes within the Denali fault in a second part. I deconvolve a small event P-arrival signal from a larger event by the following method: select arrivals with a tapered cosine window, fast fourier transform to obtain the spectrum, apply water level deconvolution technique, and bandpass filter before inverse transforming the result to obtain the RSTF. I compare the source processes of earthquakes within the area to determine stress drop differences to determine their relation with the tectonic setting of the earthquakes location. Results show an consistency with previous results, stress drop independent of moment implying self-similarity, correlation of stress drop with tectonic regime, stress drop independent of depth, stress drop depends of focal mechanism where strike-slip present larger stress drops, and decreasing stress drop as function of time. I determine seismic wave attenuation in the central western United States using coda waves. I select approximately 40 moderate earthquakes (magnitude between 5.5 and 6.5) located alocated along the California-Baja California, California-Nevada, Eastern Idaho, Gulf of California, Hebgen Lake, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, off coast of Northern California, off coast of Oregon, southern California, southern Illinois, Vancouver Island, Washington, and Wyoming regions. These events were recorded by the EarthScope transportable array (TA) network from 2005 to 2009. We obtain the data from the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS). In this study we implement a method based on the assumption that coda waves are single backscattered waves from randomly distributed heterogeneities to calculate the coda Q. The frequencies studied lie between 1 and 15 Hz. The scattering attenuation is calculated for frequency bands centered

An investigation of the structure beneath Magadi area in southern ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Magadi area is located in the southern part of the Kenyan rift, an active continental rift that is part of the East African Rift system. Local seismic activity monitored previously around Lake Magadi revealed an earthquake cluster caused by swarm activity in the rift centre at shallow depths, which was probably triggered by ...