WorldWideScience

Sample records for earthquake risk mitigation

  1. Urban Policies and Earthquake Risk Mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarlo, Antonella

    2008-01-01

    The paper aims at proposing some considerations about some recent experiences of research carried out on the theme of earthquake risk mitigation and combining policies and actions of mitigation with urban development strategies. The objective was to go beyond the classical methodological approach aiming at defining a 'technical' evaluation of the earthquake risk through a procedure which can correlate the three 'components' of danger, exposure and vulnerability. These researches experiment, in terms of methodology and application, with a new category of interpretation and strategy: the so-called Struttura Urbana Minima (Minimum urban structure).Actually, the introduction of the Struttura Urbana Minima establishes a different approach towards the theme of safety in the field of earthquake risk, since it leads to a wider viewpoint, combining the building aspect of the issue with the purely urban one, involving not only town planning, but also social and managerial implications.In this sense the constituent logic of these researches is strengthened by two fundamental issues:- The social awareness of earthquake;- The inclusion of mitigation policies in the ordinary strategies for town and territory management. Three main aspects of the first point, that is of the 'social awareness of earthquake', characterize this issue and demand to be considered within a prevention policy:- The central role of the risk as a social production,- The central role of the local community consent,- The central role of the local community capability to planTherefore, consent, considered not only as acceptance, but above all as participation in the elaboration and implementation of choices, plays a crucial role in the wider issue of prevention policies.As far as the second point is concerned, the inclusion of preventive mitigation policies in ordinary strategies for the town and territory management demands the identification of criteria of choice and priorities of intervention and, as a

  2. Earthquake Risk Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Tsuruoka, H.

    2010-12-01

    Seismic disaster risk mitigation in urban areas constitutes a challenge through collaboration of scientific, engineering, and social-science fields. Examples of collaborative efforts include research on detailed plate structure with identification of all significant faults, developing dense seismic networks; strong ground motion prediction, which uses information on near-surface seismic site effects and fault models; earthquake resistant and proof structures; and cross-discipline infrastructure for effective risk mitigation just after catastrophic events. Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (magnitude M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that the M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. This earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2007-2011) was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. The results that are obtained in the respective fields will be integrated until project termination to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In this talk, we give an outline of our project as an example of collaborative research on earthquake risk mitigation. Discussion is extended to our effort in progress and

  3. INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR ENHANCING EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATION DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temitope Egbelakin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disasters. Various theories and empirical findings have been used to explain the adoption of protective behaviours including seismic mitigation decisions, but their application has been inadequate to enhance building owners’ protective decisions. A holistic framework that incorporates the motivational orientations of decision-making, coupled with the social, cultural, economic, regulatory, institutional and political realms of earthquake risk mitigation to enhance building owners’ decisions to voluntarily implement adequate mitigation measures, is proposed. This framework attempts to address any multi-disciplinary barriers that exist in earthquake disaster management, by ensuring that stakeholders involved in seismic mitigation decisions work together to foster seismic rehabilitation of EPBs, as well as illuminate strategies that will initiate, promote and sustain the adoption of long-term earthquake mitigation. .

  4. Vrancea earthquakes. Courses for specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2005-01-01

    Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 Km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (November 10,1940, M w = 7.7) from 90 km to 110 km (March 4, 1977, M w 7.4), from 130 km to 150 km (August 30, 1986, M w = 7.1) and from 70 km to 90 km (May 30, 1990, M w = 6.9) depth. The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, October 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be M w = 7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. While no country in the world is entirely safe, the lack of capacity to limit the impact of seismic hazards remains a major burden for all countries and while the world has witnessed an exponential increase in human and material losses due to natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses for specific actions to mitigate the seismic risk given by strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key for development actions: - Early warning system for industrial facilities. Early warning is more than a technological instrument to detect, monitor and submit warnings. It should become part of a management information system for decision-making in the context of national institutional frameworks for disaster management and part of national and local strategies and programmers for risk mitigation; - Prediction program of Vrancea strong earthquakes of short and long term; - Hazard seismic map of Romania. The wrong assessment of the seismic hazard can lead to dramatic situations as those from Bucharest or Kobe. Before the 1977 Vrancea earthquake, the city of Bucharest was designed to intensity I = VII (MMI) and the real intensity was I = IX1/2-X (MMI); - Seismic microzonation of large populated

  5. Vrancea earthquakes. Specific actions to mitigate seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2005-01-01

    natural disasters given by earthquakes, there is a need to reverse trends in seismic risk mitigation to future events. Main courses of specific action to mitigate the seismic risks from strong deep Vrancea earthquakes should be considered as key to future development projects, including: - Early warning system for industrial facilities; - Short and long term prediction program of strong Vrancea earthquakes; - Seismic hazard map of Romania; - Seismic microzonation of large populated cities; - Shake map; - Seismic tomography of dams for avoiding disasters. The quality of life and the security of infrastructure (including human services, civil and industrial structures, financial infrastructure, information transmission and processing systems) in every nation are increasingly vulnerable to disasters caused by events that have geological, atmospheric, hydrologic, and technological origins. As UN Secretary General Kofi Annan pointed out, 'Building a culture of prevention is not easy. While the costs of prevention have to be paid in the present, its benefits lie in a distant future'. In other words: Prevention pays off. This may not always become apparent immediately, but, in the long run, the benefits from prevention measures will always outweigh their costs by far. Romania is an earthquake prone area and these main specific actions are really contributing to seismic risk mitigation. These specific actions are provided for in Law nr. 372/March 18,2004 -'The National Program of Seismic Risk Management'. (authors)

  6. Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mata, Isabel; Rodrigues, Isabel; Matias, Luis

    2016-04-01

    "Earthquakes in the kindergarten educate for risk mitigation" Isabel Rodrigues, Jardim de Infância D. Dinis, Odivelas, Isabel Mata, Secondary School Adelaide Cabette, Odivelas Luis Matias (UL / IDL), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universityof Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal In Portugal Education for risk is now recognized as a child training component and young learners should develop the right skills in the first years of life. School can have an important role in this process, as a privileged actor in the mobilization of every society, providing and promoting dynamic and educational practices aimed at the wider spectrum of education for citizenship, the adoption of safety behaviours, prevention and adequate management of risk. The Group of Schools Adelaide Cabette in Odivelas is now a set of schools, from Kindergarten to Secondary. Aiming at educating for risk prevention, we developed an experiment with a pre-school class directed to the seismic risk, which was extended to Earth Sciences because it is difficult to teach this topic to the youngest learners, either from Kindergarten or from Primary School, as they haven't learned enough about planet Earth (many don't even know that it is not flat but round like a ball). This experiment involved a working project 1, which was initially developed in one of the classrooms, in kindergarten D. Dinis, and many questions have been asked by the students. The explanation for the students' questions gave origin to a set of experiences developed in the Secondary school. The same class concluded the project in their own classroom. In this project the young learners could have contact with pre-school teachers, secondary and university researchers, thus promoting the sharing of different knowledge, including the scientific linked to the educational one. We would like to share our poster summarizing our experience which we feltwas not only a great challenge, but also a rewarding way to disseminate science to the youngest learners. 1. Keywords

  7. Engineering aspects of earthquake risk mitigation: Lessons from management of recent earthquakes, and consequential mudflows and landslides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The Proceedings contain 30 selected presentations given at the Second and Third UNDRO/USSR Training Seminars: Engineering Aspects of Earthquake Risk Assessment and Mitigation of Losses, held in Dushanbe, October 1988; and Lessons from Management of Recent Earthquakes, and Consequential Mudflows and Landslides, held in Moscow, October 1989. The annexes to the document provide information on the participants, the work programme and the resolution adopted at each of the seminars. Refs, figs and tabs

  8. Risk Perception and Economic Value Of Disaster Mitigation Case of Bantul Post Earthquake May 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suryanto

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to obtain empirical evidence of disaster mitigation in Bantul, Indonesia. The expected utility theory and impact of regional characteristics on individual perceptions was used to describe the disaster risk management process. The regional mapping based on hazard level was conducted by a Geographical Information System (GIS. Data used in this research were primary and secondary data. Primary data were obtained by distributing questionnaire to some respondents. Sample amounts used were 395 respondents. The research empirical contribution was to economic valuation method used towards safety and efforts to link regional characteristics, individual perception and also their willingness to conduct mitigation. The research practical contribution was to identify some key obstacles in disaster risk management. Based on multiple regression analysis, this study found that educational level, risk aversion degree, trust towards earthquake resistant building, control ability, income level, classification of hazard area contributes to higher Willingness To Pay (WTP for mitigation. It also found that perception towards central governmental roles variable did not affect to WTP for mitigation. However, the income levels of the communities in Bantul positively correspond to WTP for mitigation suggesting that the findings were consistent with the expected utility theory.

  9. Keeping focus on earthquakes at school for seismic risk mitigation of the next generations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Peruzza, Laura

    2013-04-01

    The knowledge of the seismic history of its own territory, the understanding of physical phenomena in response to an earthquake, the changes in the cultural heritage following a strong earthquake, the learning of actions to be taken during and after an earthquake, are piece of information that contribute to keep focus on the seismic hazard and to implement strategies for seismic risk mitigation. The training of new generations, today more than ever subject to rapid forgetting of past events, becomes therefore a key element to increase the perception that earthquakes happened and can happen at anytime and that mitigation actions are the only means to ensure the safety and to reduce damages and human losses. Since several years our institute (OGS) is involved in activities to raise awareness of education on earthquake. We aim to implement education programs with the goal of addressing a critical approach to seismic hazard reduction, differentiating the types of activities according to the age of the students. However, being such kind of activity unfunded, we can act at now only on a very limited number of schools per year. To be effective, the inclusion of the seismic risk issues in school curricula requires specific time and appropriate approaches when planning activities. For this reason, we involve also the teachers as proponents of activities and we encourage them to keep alive memories and discussion on earthquake in the classes. During the past years we acted mainly in the schools of the Friuli Venezia Giulia area (NE Italy), that is an earthquake prone area struck in 1976 by a destructive seismic event (Ms=6.5). We organized short training courses for teachers, we lectured classes, and we led laboratory activities with students. Indeed, being well known that students enjoy classes more when visual and active learning are joined, we propose a program that is composed by seminars, demonstrations and hands-on activities in the classrooms; for high school students

  10. Risk Perception and Economic Value Of Disaster Mitigation Case of Bantul Post Earthquake May 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suryanto Suryanto

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false IN X-NONE AR-SA MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 This study aims to obtain empirical evidence of disaster mitigation in Bantul, Indonesia. The expected utility theory and impact of regional characteristics on individual perceptions was used to describe the disaster risk management process. The regional mapping based on hazard level was conducted by a Geographical Information System (GIS. Data used in this research were primary and secondary data. Primary data were obtained by distributing questionnaire to some respondents. Sample amounts used were 395 respondents. The research empirical contribution was to economic valuation method used towards safety and efforts to link regional characteristics, individual perception and also their willingness to conduct mitigation. The research practical contribution was to identify some key obstacles in disaster risk management. Based on multiple regression analysis, this study found that educational level, risk aversion degree, trust towards earthquake-resistant building, control ability, income level, classifi cation of hazard area contributes to higher Willingness To Pay (WTP for mitigation. It also found that perception towards central governmental roles variable did not affect to WTP for mitigation. However, the income levels of the communities in Bantul positively correspond to WTP for mitigation suggesting that the fi ndings were consistent with the expected utility theory. /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso

  11. Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

    2012-12-01

    Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

  12. Implementation of equity in resource allocation for regional earthquake risk mitigation using two-stage stochastic programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolfaghari, Mohammad R; Peyghaleh, Elnaz

    2015-03-01

    This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two-stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user-defined level to achieve the equity-efficiency tradeoff in the decision-making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk-return tradeoff, equity-reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per-capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Role of the Internet in Anticipating and Mitigating Earthquake Catastrophes, and the Emergence of Personal Risk Management (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Donnellan, A.; Graves, W.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.

    2009-12-01

    Risks from natural and financial catastrophes are currently managed by a combination of large public and private institutions. Public institutions usually are comprised of government agencies that conduct studies, formulate policies and guidelines, enforce regulations, and make “official” forecasts. Private institutions include insurance and reinsurance companies, and financial service companies that underwrite catastrophe (“cat”) bonds, and make private forecasts. Although decisions about allocating resources and developing solutions are made by large institutions, the costs of dealing with catastrophes generally fall for the most part on businesses and the general public. Information on potential risks is generally available to the public for some hazards but not others. For example, in the case of weather, private forecast services are provided by www.weather.com and www.wunderground.com. For earthquakes in California (only), the official forecast is the WGCEP-USGS forecast, but provided in a format that is difficult for the public to use. Other privately made forecasts are currently available, for example by the JPL QuakeSim and Russian groups, but these efforts are limited. As more of the world’s population moves increasingly into major seismic zones, new strategies are needed to allow individuals to manage their personal risk from large and damaging earthquakes. Examples include individual mitigation measures such as retrofitting, as well as microinsurance in both developing and developed countries, as well as other financial strategies. We argue that the “long tail” of the internet offers an ideal, and greatly underutilized mechanism to reach out to consumers and to provide them with the information and tools they need to confront and manage seismic hazard and risk on an individual, personalized basis. Information of this type includes not only global hazard forecasts, which are now possible, but also global risk estimation. Additionally

  14. Human casualties in earthquakes: Modelling and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, R.J.S.; So, E.K.M.

    2011-01-01

    Earthquake risk modelling is needed for the planning of post-event emergency operations, for the development of insurance schemes, for the planning of mitigation measures in the existing building stock, and for the development of appropriate building regulations; in all of these applications estimates of casualty numbers are essential. But there are many questions about casualty estimation which are still poorly understood. These questions relate to the causes and nature of the injuries and deaths, and the extent to which they can be quantified. This paper looks at the evidence on these questions from recent studies. It then reviews casualty estimation models available, and finally compares the performance of some casualty models in making rapid post-event casualty estimates in recent earthquakes.

  15. Playing against nature: improving earthquake hazard mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S. A.; Stein, J.

    2012-12-01

    The great 2011 Tohoku earthquake dramatically demonstrated the need to improve earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation policies. The earthquake was much larger than predicted by hazard models, and the resulting tsunami overtopped coastal defenses, causing more than 15,000 deaths and $210 billion damage. Hence if and how such defenses should be rebuilt is a challenging question, because the defences fared poorly and building ones to withstand tsunamis as large as March's is too expensive,. A similar issue arises along the Nankai Trough to the south, where new estimates warning of tsunamis 2-5 times higher than in previous models raise the question of what to do, given that the timescale on which such events may occur is unknown. Thus in the words of economist H. Hori, "What should we do in face of uncertainty? Some say we should spend our resources on present problems instead of wasting them on things whose results are uncertain. Others say we should prepare for future unknown disasters precisely because they are uncertain". Thus society needs strategies to mitigate earthquake and tsunami hazards that make economic and societal sense, given that our ability to assess these hazards is poor, as illustrated by highly destructive earthquakes that often occur in areas predicted by hazard maps to be relatively safe. Conceptually, we are playing a game against nature "of which we still don't know all the rules" (Lomnitz, 1989). Nature chooses tsunami heights or ground shaking, and society selects the strategy to minimize the total costs of damage plus mitigation costs. As in any game of chance, we maximize our expectation value by selecting the best strategy, given our limited ability to estimate the occurrence and effects of future events. We thus outline a framework to find the optimal level of mitigation by balancing its cost against the expected damages, recognizing the uncertainties in the hazard estimates. This framework illustrates the role of the

  16. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  17. The Role of Citizen Science in Risk Mitigation and Disaster Response: A Case Study of 2015 Nepalese Earthquake Using OpenStreetMap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieger, C.; Byrne, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Citizen science includes networks of ordinary people acting as sensors, observing and recording information for science. OpenStreetMap is one such sensor network which empowers citizens to collaboratively produce a global picture from free geographic information. The success of this open source software is extended by the development of freely used open databases for the user community. Participating citizens do not require a high level of skill. Final results are processed by professionals following quality assurance protocols before map information is released. OpenStreetMap is not only the cheapest source of timely maps in many cases but also often the only source. This is particularly true in developing countries. Emergency responses to the recent earthquake in Nepal illustrates the value for rapidly updated geographical information. This includes emergency management, damage assessment, post-disaster response, and future risk mitigation. Local disaster conditions (landslides, road closings, bridge failures, etc.) were documented for local aid workers by citizen scientists working remotely. Satellites and drones provide digital imagery of the disaster zone and OpenStreetMap participants shared the data from locations around the globe. For the Nepal earthquake, OpenStreetMap provided a team of volunteers on the ground through their Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team (HOT) which contribute data to the disaster response through smartphones and laptops. This, combined with global citizen science efforts, provided immediate geographically useful maps to assist aid workers, including the Red Cross and Canadian DART Team, and the Nepalese government. As of August 2014, almost 1.7 million users provided over 2.5 billion edits to the OpenStreetMap map database. Due to the increased usage of smartphones, GPS-enabled devices, and the growing participation in citizen science projects, data gathering is proving an effective way to contribute as a global citizen. This paper

  18. Making the decision to mitigate risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingrid M. Martin; Holly Wise Bender; Carol Raish

    2007-01-01

    Why individuals choose to mitigate, downplay, or ignore risk has been a topic of much research over the past 25 years for natural- and human-created risks, such as earthquakes, flooding, smoking, contraceptive use, and alcohol consumption. Wildfire has been a relatively recent focus in the natural hazard literature, perhaps a result of several years of catastrophic...

  19. Landslide-dammed lake at Tangjiashan, Sichuan province, China (triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake, May 12, 2008): Risk assessment, mitigation strategy, and lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Zhuang, J.; You, Y.; Chen, X.; Scott, K.M.

    2012-01-01

    Landslides and rock avalanches triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake produced 257 landslide dams, mainly situated along the eastern boundary of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where rivers descend approximately 3,000 m into the Sichuan Basin. The largest of these dams blocked the Tongkou River (a tributary of the Fujiang River) at Tangjiashan. The blockage, consisting of 2. 04 ?? 10 7 m 3 of landslide debris, impounded a lake with a projected maximum volume of 3. 15 ?? 10 8 m 3, potentially inundating 8. 92 km 2 of terrain. Its creation during the rainy season and the possibility of an uncontrolled release posed a serious, impending threat to at least 1. 3 million people downstream that could add substantially to the total of 69,200 individuals directly killed by the earthquake. Risk assessment of the blockage indicated that it was unlikely to collapse suddenly, and that eventual overtopping could be mitigated by notching the structure in order to create an engineered breach and achieve safe drainage of the lake. In addition to the installation of monitoring and warning instrumentation, for emergency planning we estimated several outburst scenarios equivalent to 20, 25, 33, and 50% of the dam failing suddenly, creating, respectively, 3. 35, 3. 84, 4. 22, and 4. 65 km 2 of flooded area, and overbank water depths of 4. 6, 5. 1, 5. 7, and 6. 2 m, respectively, in Mianyang, the second largest city in Sichuan Province, 48 km downstream from the blockage. Based on these scenarios, recommendations and plans for excavating a sluiceway, draining the lake, and downstream evacuation were proposed and later were implemented successfully, with the blockage breached by overtopping on June 10, less than a month after dam emplacement. The peak discharge of the release only slightly exceeded the flood of record at Mianyang City. No lives were lost, and significant property damage was avoided. Post-breaching evaluation reveals how future similar mitigation can be improved. Although

  20. Model-based mitigation of availability risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, E.; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, S.; Salvato, M.

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for risk assessment and mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  1. Model-Based Mitigation of Availability Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zambon, Emmanuele; Bolzoni, D.; Etalle, Sandro; Salvato, Marco

    2007-01-01

    The assessment and mitigation of risks related to the availability of the IT infrastructure is becoming increasingly important in modern organizations. Unfortunately, present standards for Risk Assessment and Mitigation show limitations when evaluating and mitigating availability risks. This is due

  2. Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey Part3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneda, Yoshiyuki; Ozener, Haluk; Meral Ozel, Nurcan; Kalafat, Dogan; Ozgur Citak, Seckin; Takahashi, Narumi; Hori, Takane; Hori, Muneo; Sakamoto, Mayumi; Pinar, Ali; Oguz Ozel, Asim; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Tanircan, Gulum; Demirtas, Ahmet

    2017-04-01

    There have been many destructive earthquakes and tsunamis in the world.The recent events are, 2011 East Japan Earthquake/Tsunami in Japan, 2015 Nepal Earthquake and 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake in Japan, and so on. And very recently a destructive earthquake occurred in Central Italy. In Turkey, the 1999 Izmit Earthquake as the destructive earthquake occurred along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). The NAF crosses the Sea of Marmara and the only "seismic gap" remains beneath the Sea of Marmara. Istanbul with high population similar to Tokyo in Japan, is located around the Sea of Marmara where fatal damages expected to be generated as compound damages including Tsunami and liquefaction, when the next destructive Marmara Earthquake occurs. The seismic risk of Istanbul seems to be under the similar risk condition as Tokyo in case of Nankai Trough earthquake and metropolitan earthquake. It was considered that Japanese and Turkish researchers can share their own experiences during past damaging earthquakes and can prepare for the future large earthquakes in cooperation with each other. Therefore, in 2013 the two countries, Japan and Turkey made an agreement to start a multidisciplinary research project, MarDiM SATREPS. The Project runs researches to aim to raise the preparedness for possible large-scale earthquake and Tsunami disasters in Marmara Region and it has four research groups with the following goals. 1) The first one is Marmara Earthquake Source region observational research group. This group has 4 sub-groups such as Seismicity, Geodesy, Electromagnetics and Trench analyses. Preliminary results such as seismicity and crustal deformation on the sea floor in Sea of Marmara have already achieved. 2) The second group focuses on scenario researches of earthquake occurrence along the North Anatolia Fault and precise tsunami simulation in the Marmara region. Research results from this group are to be the model of earthquake occurrence scenario in Sea of Marmara and the

  3. The Wenchuan, China M8.0 Earthquake: A Lesson and Implication for Seismic Hazard Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2008-12-01

    The Wenchuan, China M8.0 earthquake caused great damage and huge casualty. 69,197 people were killed, 374,176 people were injured, and 18,341 people are still missing. The estimated direct economic loss is about 126 billion U.S. dollar. The Wenchuan earthquake again demonstrated that earthquake does not kill people, but the built environments and induced hazards, landslides in particular, do. Therefore, it is critical to strengthen the built environments, such buildings and bridges, and to mitigate the induced hazards in order to avoid such disaster. As a part of the so-called North-South Seismic Zone in China, the Wenchuan earthquake occurred along the Longmen Shan thrust belt which forms a boundary between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Sichuan basin, and there is a long history (~4,000 years) of seismicity in the area. The historical records show that the area experienced high intensity (i.e., greater than IX) in the past several thousand years. In other words, the area is well-known to have high seismic hazard because of its tectonic setting and seismicity. However, only intensity VII (0.1 to 0.15g PGA) has been considered for seismic design for the built environments in the area. This was one of the main reasons that so many building collapses, particularly the school buildings, during the Wenchuan earthquake. It is clear that the seismic design (i.e., the design ground motion or intensity) is not adequate in the Wenchuan earthquake stricken area. A lesson can be learned from the Wenchuan earthquake on the seismic hazard and risk assessment. A lesson can also be learned from this earthquake on seismic hazard mitigation and/or seismic risk reduction.

  4. Revolutionising engineering education in the Middle East region to promote earthquake-disaster mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baytiyeh, Hoda; Naja, Mohamad K.

    2014-09-01

    Due to the high market demands for professional engineers in the Arab oil-producing countries, the appetite of Middle Eastern students for high-paying jobs and challenging careers in engineering has sharply increased. As a result, engineering programmes are providing opportunities for more students to enrol on engineering courses through lenient admission policies that do not compromise academic standards. This strategy has generated an influx of students who must be carefully educated to enhance their professional knowledge and social capital to assist in future earthquake-disaster risk-reduction efforts. However, the majority of Middle Eastern engineering students are unaware of the valuable acquired engineering skills and knowledge in building the resilience of their communities to earthquake disasters. As the majority of the countries in the Middle East are exposed to seismic hazards and are vulnerable to destructive earthquakes, engineers have become indispensable assets and the first line of defence against earthquake threats. This article highlights the contributions of some of the engineering innovations in advancing technologies and techniques for effective disaster mitigation and it calls for the incorporation of earthquake-disaster-mitigation education into academic engineering programmes in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

  5. California Earthquake Clearinghouse Crisis Information-Sharing Strategy in Support of Situational Awareness, Understanding Interdependencies of Critical Infrastructure, Regional Resilience, Preparedness, Risk Assessment/mitigation, Decision-Making and Everyday Operational Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosinski, A.; Morentz, J.; Beilin, P.

    2017-12-01

    The principal function of the California Earthquake Clearinghouse is to provide State and Federal disaster response managers, and the scientific and engineering communities, with prompt information on ground failure, structural damage, and other consequences from significant seismic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis. The overarching problem highlighted in discussions with Clearinghouse partners is the confusion and frustration of many of the Operational Area representatives, and some regional utilities throughout the state on what software applications they should be using and maintaining to meet State, Federal, and Local, requirements, and for what purposes, and how to deal with the limitations of these applications. This problem is getting in the way of making meaningful progress on developing multi-application interoperability and the necessary supporting cross-sector information-sharing procedures and dialogue on essential common operational information that entities need to share for different all hazards missions and related operational activities associated with continuity, security, and resilience. The XchangeCore based system the Clearinghouse is evolving helps deal with this problem, and does not compound it by introducing yet another end-user application; there is no end-user interface with which one views XchangeCore, all viewing of data provided through XchangeCore occurs in and on existing, third-party operational applications. The Clearinghouse efforts with XchangeCore are compatible with FEMA, which is currently using XchangeCore-provided data for regional and National Business Emergency Operations Center (source of business information sharing during emergencies) response. Also important, and should be emphasized, is that information-sharing is not just for response, but for preparedness, risk assessment/mitigation decision-making, and everyday operational needs for situational awareness. In other words, the benefits of the Clearinghouse

  6. Making the Handoff from Earthquake Hazard Assessments to Effective Mitigation Measures (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Applegate, D.

    2010-12-01

    This year has witnessed a barrage of large earthquakes worldwide with the resulting damages ranging from inconsequential to truly catastrophic. We cannot predict when earthquakes will strike, but we can build communities that are resilient to strong shaking as well as to secondary hazards such as landslides and liquefaction. The contrasting impacts of the magnitude-7 earthquake that struck Haiti in January and the magnitude-8.8 event that struck Chile in April underscore the difference that mitigation and preparedness can make. In both cases, millions of people were exposed to severe shaking, but deaths in Chile were measured in the hundreds rather than the hundreds of thousands that perished in Haiti. Numerous factors contributed to these disparate outcomes, but the most significant is the presence of strong building codes in Chile and their total absence in Haiti. The financial cost of the Chilean earthquake still represents an unacceptably high percentage of that nation’s gross domestic product, a reminder that life safety is the paramount, but not the only, goal of disaster risk reduction measures. For building codes to be effective, both in terms of lives saved and economic cost, they need to reflect the hazard as accurately as possible. As one of four federal agencies that make up the congressionally mandated National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) develops national seismic hazard maps that form the basis for seismic provisions in model building codes through the Federal Emergency Management Agency and private-sector practitioners. This cooperation is central to NEHRP, which both fosters earthquake research and establishes pathways to translate research results into implementation measures. That translation depends on the ability of hazard-focused scientists to interact and develop mutual trust with risk-focused engineers and planners. Strengthening that interaction is an opportunity for the next generation

  7. e-Science on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation by EUAsiaGrid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Eric; Lin, Simon; Chen, Hsin-Yen; Chao, Li; Huang, Bor-Shoh; Liang, Wen-Tzong

    2010-05-01

    Although earthquake is not predictable at this moment, with the aid of accurate seismic wave propagation analysis, we could simulate the potential hazards at all distances from possible fault sources by understanding the source rupture process during large earthquakes. With the integration of strong ground-motion sensor network, earthquake data center and seismic wave propagation analysis over gLite e-Science Infrastructure, we could explore much better knowledge on the impact and vulnerability of potential earthquake hazards. On the other hand, this application also demonstrated the e-Science way to investigate unknown earth structure. Regional integration of earthquake sensor networks could aid in fast event reporting and accurate event data collection. Federation of earthquake data center entails consolidation and sharing of seismology and geology knowledge. Capability building of seismic wave propagation analysis implies the predictability of potential hazard impacts. With gLite infrastructure and EUAsiaGrid collaboration framework, earth scientists from Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippine, Thailand are working together to alleviate potential seismic threats by making use of Grid technologies and also to support seismology researches by e-Science. A cross continental e-infrastructure, based on EGEE and EUAsiaGrid, is established for seismic wave forward simulation and risk estimation. Both the computing challenge on seismic wave analysis among 5 European and Asian partners, and the data challenge for data center federation had been exercised and verified. Seismogram-on-Demand service is also developed for the automatic generation of seismogram on any sensor point to a specific epicenter. To ease the access to all the services based on users workflow and retain the maximal flexibility, a Seismology Science Gateway integating data, computation, workflow, services and user communities would be implemented based on typical use cases. In the future, extension of the

  8. Disaster mitigation science for Earthquakes and Tsunamis -For resilience society against natural disasters-

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneda, Y.; Takahashi, N.; Hori, T.; Kawaguchi, K.; Isouchi, C.; Fujisawa, K.

    2017-12-01

    Destructive natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred frequently in the world. For instance, 2004 Sumatra Earthquake in Indonesia, 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake in China, 2010 Chile Earthquake and 2011 Tohoku Earthquake in Japan etc., these earthquakes generated very severe damages. For the reduction and mitigation of damages by destructive natural disasters, early detection of natural disasters and speedy and proper evacuations are indispensable. And hardware and software developments/preparations for reduction and mitigation of natural disasters are quite important. In Japan, DONET as the real time monitoring system on the ocean floor is developed and deployed around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone southwestern Japan. So, the early detection of earthquakes and tsunamis around the Nankai trough seismogenic zone will be expected by DONET. The integration of the real time data and advanced simulation researches will lead to reduce damages, however, in the resilience society, the resilience methods will be required after disasters. Actually, methods on restorations and revivals are necessary after natural disasters. We would like to propose natural disaster mitigation science for early detections, evacuations and restorations against destructive natural disasters. This means the resilience society. In natural disaster mitigation science, there are lots of research fields such as natural science, engineering, medical treatment, social science and literature/art etc. Especially, natural science, engineering and medical treatment are fundamental research fields for natural disaster mitigation, but social sciences such as sociology, geography and psychology etc. are very important research fields for restorations after natural disasters. Finally, to realize and progress disaster mitigation science, human resource cultivation is indispensable. We already carried out disaster mitigation science under `new disaster mitigation research project on Mega

  9. NRIAG's Effort to Mitigate Earthquake Disasters in Egypt Using GPS and Seismic Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, Salah

    It has been estimated that, during historical time more than 50 million people have lost their lives in earthquakes during ground shaking, such as soil amplification and/or liquefaction, landslides and tsunamis or its immediate aftereffects, as fires. The distribution of population takes generally no account of earthquake risk, at least on a large scale. An earthquake may be large but not destructive, on the other hand, an earthquake may be destructive but not large. The absence of correlation is due to the fact that, great number of other factors entering into consideration: first of all, the location of the earthquake in relation to populated areas, also soil conditions and building constructions. Soil liquefaction has been identified as the underlying phenomenon for many ground failures, settlements and lateral spreads, which are a major cause of damage to soil structures and building foundations in many events. Egypt is suffered a numerous of destructive earthquakes as well as Kalabsha earthquake (1981, Mag 5.4) near Aswan city and the High dam, Dahshour earthquake (1992, Mag 5.9) near Cairo city and Aqaba earthquake (1995, Mag 7.2). As the category of earthquake damage includes all the phenomena related to the direct and indirect damages, the Egyptian authorities do a great effort to mitigate the earthquake disasters. The seismicity especially at the zones of high activity is investigated in details in order to obtain the active source zones not only by the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) but also by the local seismic networks at, Aswan, Hurghada, Aqaba, Abu Dabbab and Dabbaa. On the other hand the soil condition, soil amplification, soil structure interaction, liquefaction and seismic hazard are carried out in particular the urbanized areas and the region near the source zones. All these parameters are integrated to obtain the Egyptian building code which is valid to construct buildings resist damages and consequently mitigate the earthquake

  10. Mitigation of wildfire risk by homeowners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah Brenkert; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

    2005-01-01

    In-depth interviews conducted with homeowners in Larimer County's Wildland-Urban Interface revealed that homeowners face difficult decisions regarding the implementation of wildfire mitigation measures. Perceptions of wildfire mitigation options may be as important as perceptions of wildfire risk in determining likelihood of implementation. These mitigation...

  11. Meeting the Challenge of Earthquake Risk Globalisation: Towards the Global Earthquake Model GEM (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zschau, J.

    2009-04-01

    Earthquake risk, like natural risks in general, has become a highly dynamic and globally interdependent phenomenon. Due to the "urban explosion" in the Third World, an increasingly complex cross linking of critical infrastructure and lifelines in the industrial nations and a growing globalisation of the world's economies, we are presently facing a dramatic increase of our society's vulnerability to earthquakes in practically all seismic regions on our globe. Such fast and global changes cannot be captured with conventional earthquake risk models anymore. The sciences in this field are, therefore, asked to come up with new solutions that are no longer exclusively aiming at the best possible quantification of the present risks but also keep an eye on their changes with time and allow to project these into the future. This does not apply to the vulnerablity component of earthquake risk alone, but also to its hazard component which has been realized to be time-dependent, too. The challenges of earthquake risk dynamics and -globalisation have recently been accepted by the Global Science Forum of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD - GSF) who initiated the "Global Earthquake Model (GEM)", a public-private partnership for establishing an independent standard to calculate, monitor and communicate earthquake risk globally, raise awareness and promote mitigation.

  12. Landslides risk mitigation along lifelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, G.; Versace, P.; Artese, G.; Costanzo, S.; Corsonello, P.; Di Massa, G.; Mendicino, G.; Maletta, D.; Leone, S.; Muto, F.; Senatore, A.; Troncone, A.; Conte, E.; Galletta, D.

    2012-04-01

    The paper describes an integrated, innovative and efficient solution to manage risk issues associated to landslides interfering with infrastructures. The research project was submitted for financial support in the framework of the Multi -regional Operational Programme 2007-13: Research and Competitiveness funded by the Ministry of Research (MIUR) and co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project is aimed to developing and demonstrating an integrated system of monitoring, early warning and mitigation of landslides risk. The final goal is to timely identify potentially dangerous landslides, and to activate all needed impact mitigation measures, including the information delivery. The essential components of the system include monitoring arrays, telecommunication networks and scenario simulation models, assisted by a data acquisition and processing centre, and a traffic control centres. Upon integration, the system will be experimentally validated and demonstrated over ca. 200 km of three highway sections, crossing the regions of Campania, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily. Progress in the state of art is represented by the developments in the field of environmental monitoring and in the mathematical modeling of landslides and by the development of services for traffic management. The approach to the problem corresponds to a "systemic logics" where each developed component foresees different interchangeable technological solutions to maximize the operational flexibility. The final system may be configured as a simple to complex structure, including different configurations to deal with different scenarios. Specifically, six different monitoring systems will be realized: three "point" systems, made up of a network of locally measuring sensors, and three "area" systems to remotely measure the displacements of large areas. Each network will be fully integrated and connected to a unique data transmission system. Standardized and shared procedures for the

  13. Incorporating human-triggered earthquake risks into energy and water policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, C. D.; Seeber, L.; Jacob, K. H.

    2010-12-01

    A comprehensive understanding of earthquake risks in urbanized regions requires an accurate assessment of both urban vulnerabilities and hazards from earthquakes, including ones whose timing might be affected by human activities. Socioeconomic risks associated with human-triggered earthquakes are often misconstrued and receive little scientific, legal, and public attention. Worldwide, more than 200 damaging earthquakes, associated with industrialization and urbanization, were documented since the 20th century. Geomechanical pollution due to large-scale geoengineering activities can advance the clock of earthquakes, trigger new seismic events or even shot down natural background seismicity. Activities include mining, hydrocarbon production, fluid injections, water reservoir impoundments and deep-well geothermal energy production. This type of geohazard has impacts on human security on a regional and national level. Some planned or considered future engineering projects raise particularly strong concerns about triggered earthquakes, such as for instance, sequestration of carbon dioxide by injecting it deep underground and large-scale natural gas production in the Marcellus shale in the Appalacian basin. Worldwide examples of earthquakes are discussed, including their associated losses of human life and monetary losses (e.g., 1989 Newcastle and Volkershausen earthquakes, 2001 Killari earthquake, 2006 Basel earthquake, 2010 Wenchuan earthquake). An overview is given on global statistics of human-triggered earthquakes, including depths and time delay of triggering. Lastly, strategies are described, including risk mitigation measures such as urban planning adaptations and seismic hazard mapping.

  14. Earthquake risk assessment of Alexandria, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Gaber, Hanan; Ibrahim, Hamza

    2015-01-01

    Throughout historical and recent times, Alexandria has suffered great damage due to earthquakes from both near- and far-field sources. Sometimes, the sources of such damages are not well known. During the twentieth century, the city was shaken by several earthquakes generated from inland dislocations (e.g., 29 Apr. 1974, 12 Oct. 1992, and 28 Dec. 1999) and the African continental margin (e.g., 12 Sept. 1955 and 28 May 1998). Therefore, this study estimates the earthquake ground shaking and the consequent impacts in Alexandria on the basis of two earthquake scenarios. The simulation results show that Alexandria affected by both earthquakes scenarios relatively in the same manner despite the number of casualties during the first scenario (inland dislocation) is twice larger than the second one (African continental margin). An expected percentage of 2.27 from Alexandria's total constructions (12.9 millions, 2006 Census) will be affected, 0.19 % injuries and 0.01 % deaths of the total population (4.1 millions, 2006 Census) estimated by running the first scenario. The earthquake risk profile reveals that three districts (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) lie in high seismic risks, two districts (Gharb and Wasat) are in moderate, and two districts (Al-Gomrok and Burg El-Arab) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Al-Montazah is the highest vulnerable district whereas 73 % of expected damages were reported there. The undertaken analysis shows that the Alexandria urban area faces high risk. Informal areas and deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated earthquake risks (buildings damages) are concentrated at the most densely populated (Al-Montazah, Al-Amriya, and Shark) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts.

  15. Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

  16. Structural Risk Assessment and Mitigation for Low- to Mid-Rise Residential Buildings in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasim A. Korkmaz

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available China has experienced major earthquakes recently. The 2014 Ludian earthquake struck Ludian County, Yunnan, (Mw = 6.1 on 3 August, 2014. On April 20th 2013, Ya’an earthquake (Mw = 6.9, on April 14th 2010, Qinghai earthquake (Mw = 7.1, on July 9th 2009, Yunnan earthquake (Mw = 6.0, and on May 12th 2008, Sichuan earthquake (Mw = 7.9 struck China. Among these disasters, the most devastating, the Sichuan earthquake, resulted in the collapse of 5 million buildings and damage to more than 21 million. Human loss was also high with over 60,000 people dead, 360,000 injured, and more than 14 million people displaced. South-west China lies in an area that is prone to earthquakes. In 1970, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Yunnan with 15,000 lost. This study presents a detailed risk assessment for a structural risk assessment and mitigation for low- to mid-rise residential buildings for China. The risk assessment, through seismic hazard assessment approaches, evaluates the impact of the disasters for integrated structural health monitoring. Among the results of the investigation, relations and links between safety and risk are defined.

  17. USGS GNSS Applications to Earthquake Disaster Response and Hazard Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudnut, K. W.; Murray, J. R.; Minson, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid characterization of earthquake rupture is important during a disaster because it establishes which fault ruptured and the extent and amount of fault slip. These key parameters, in turn, can augment in situ seismic sensors for identifying disruption to lifelines as well as localized damage along the fault break. Differential GNSS station positioning, along with imagery differencing, are important methods for augmenting seismic sensors. During response to recent earthquakes (1989 Loma Prieta, 1992 Landers, 1994 Northridge, 1999 Hector Mine, 2010 El Mayor - Cucapah, 2012 Brawley Swarm and 2014 South Napa earthquakes), GNSS co-seismic and post-seismic observations proved to be essential for rapid earthquake source characterization. Often, we find that GNSS results indicate key aspects of the earthquake source that would not have been known in the absence of GNSS data. Seismic, geologic, and imagery data alone, without GNSS, would miss important details of the earthquake source. That is, GNSS results provide important additional insight into the earthquake source properties, which in turn help understand the relationship between shaking and damage patterns. GNSS also adds to understanding of the distribution of slip along strike and with depth on a fault, which can help determine possible lifeline damage due to fault offset, as well as the vertical deformation and tilt that are vitally important for gravitationally driven water systems. The GNSS processing work flow that took more than one week 25 years ago now takes less than one second. Formerly, portable receivers needed to be set up at a site, operated for many hours, then data retrieved, processed and modeled by a series of manual steps. The establishment of continuously telemetered, continuously operating high-rate GNSS stations and the robust automation of all aspects of data retrieval and processing, has led to sub-second overall system latency. Within the past few years, the final challenges of

  18. Initiatives to Reduce Earthquake Risk of Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, B. E.

    2008-12-01

    The seventeen-year-and-counting history of the Palo Alto-based nonprofit organization GeoHazards International (GHI) is the story of many initiatives within a larger initiative to increase the societal impact of geophysics and civil engineering. GHI's mission is to reduce death and suffering due to earthquakes and other natural hazards in the world's most vulnerable communities through preparedness, mitigation and advocacy. GHI works by raising awareness in these communities about their risk and about affordable methods to manage it, identifying and strengthening institutions in these communities to manage their risk, and advocating improvement in natural disaster management. Some of GHI's successful initiatives include: (1) creating an earthquake scenario for Quito, Ecuador that describes in lay terms the consequences for that city of a probable earthquake; (2) improving the curricula of Pakistani university courses about seismic retrofitting; (3) training employees of the Public Works Department of Delhi, India on assessing the seismic vulnerability of critical facilities such as a school, a hospital, a police headquarters, and city hall; (4) assessing the vulnerability of the Library of Tibetan Works and Archives in Dharamsala, India; (5) developing a seismic hazard reduction plan for a nonprofit organization in Kathmandu, Nepal that works to manage Nepal's seismic risk; and (6) assisting in the formulation of a resolution by the Council of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to promote school earthquake safety among OECD member countries. GHI's most important resource, in addition to its staff and Board of Trustees, is its members and volunteer advisors, who include some of the world's leading earth scientists, earthquake engineers, urban planners and architects, from the academic, public, private and nonprofit sectors. GHI is planning several exciting initiatives in the near future. One would oversee the design and construction of

  19. Earthquake Culture: A Significant Element in Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment and Earthquake Disaster Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrion, Mihaela

    2018-01-01

    This book chapter brings to attention the dramatic impact of large earthquake disasters on local communities and society and highlights the necessity of building and enhancing the earthquake culture. Iran was considered as a research case study and fifteen large earthquake disasters in Iran were investigated and analyzed over more than a century-time period. It was found that the earthquake culture in Iran was and is still conditioned by many factors or parameters which are not integrated and...

  20. Expanding Horizons in Mitigating Earthquake Related Disasters in Urban Areas: Global Development of Real-Time Seismology

    OpenAIRE

    Utkucu, Murat; Küyük, Hüseyin Serdar; Demir, İsmail Hakkı

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Real-time seismology is a newly developing alternative approach in seismology to mitigate earthquake hazard. It exploits up-to-date advances in seismic instrument technology, data acquisition, digital communications and computer systems for quickly transforming data into earthquake information in real-time to reduce earthquake losses and its impact on social and economic life in the earthquake prone densely populated urban and industrial areas.  Real-time seismology systems are not o...

  1. Earthquake risk assessment of building structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    2001-01-01

    During the past two decades, probabilistic risk analysis tools have been applied to assess the performance of new and existing building structural systems. Structural design and evaluation of buildings and other facilities with regard to their ability to withstand the effects of earthquakes requires special considerations that are not normally a part of such evaluations for other occupancy, service and environmental loads. This paper reviews some of these special considerations, specifically as they pertain to probability-based codified design and reliability-based condition assessment of existing buildings. Difficulties experienced in implementing probability-based limit states design criteria for earthquake are summarized. Comparisons of predicted and observed building damage highlight the limitations of using current deterministic approaches for post-earthquake building condition assessment. The importance of inherent randomness and modeling uncertainty in forecasting building performance is examined through a building fragility assessment of a steel frame with welded connections that was damaged during the Northridge Earthquake of 1994. The prospects for future improvements in earthquake-resistant design procedures based on a more rational probability-based treatment of uncertainty are examined

  2. Mitigating tin whisker risks theory and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Handwerker, Carol A; Bath, Jasbir

    2016-01-01

    Discusses the growth mechanisms of tin whiskers and the effective mitigation strategies necessary to reduce whisker growth risks. This book covers key tin whisker topics, ranging from fundamental science to practical mitigation strategies. The text begins with a review of the characteristic properties of local microstructures around whisker and hillock grains to identify why these particular grains and locations become predisposed to forming whiskers and hillocks. The book discusses the basic properties of tin-based alloy finishes and the effects of various alloying elements on whisker formation, with a focus on potential mechanisms for whisker suppression or enhancement for each element. Tin whisker risk mitigation strategies for each tier of the supply chain for high reliability electronic systems are also described.

  3. Emerging Radiation Health-Risk Mitigation Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.W.; Cucinotta, F.A.; Schimmerling, W.

    2004-01-01

    Past space missions beyond the confines of the Earth's protective magnetic field have been of short duration and protection from the effects of solar particle events was of primary concern. The extension of operational infrastructure beyond low-Earth orbit to enable routine access to more interesting regions of space will require protection from the hazards of the accumulated exposures of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). There are significant challenges in providing protection from the long-duration exposure to GCR: the human risks to the exposures are highly uncertain and safety requirements places unreasonable demands in supplying sufficient shielding materials in the design. A vigorous approach to future radiation health-risk mitigation requires a triage of techniques (using biological and technical factors) and reduction of the uncertainty in radiation risk models. The present paper discusses the triage of factors for risk mitigation with associated materials issues and engineering design methods

  4. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  5. Mitigating mass movement caused by earthquakes and typhoons: a case study of central Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jiun-Chuan

    2013-04-01

    Typhoons caused huge damages to Taiwan at the average of 3.8 times a year in the last 100 years, according to Central Weather Bureau data. After the Chi-Chi earthquake of 1999 at the magnitude of Richard Scale 7.3, typhoons with huge rainfall would cause huge debris flow and deposits at river channels. As a result of earthquakes, loose debris falls and flows became significant hazards in central Taiwan. Analysis of rainfall data and data about the sites of slope failure show that damage from natural hazards was enhanced in the last 20 years, as a result of the Chi-Chi earthquake. There are three main types of mass movement in Central Taiwan: landslides, debris flows and gully erosion. Landslides occurred mainly along hill slopes and river channel banks. Many dams, check dams, housing structures and even river channels can be raised to as high as 60 meters as a result of stacking up floating materials of landslides. Debris flows occurred mainly through typhoon periods and activated ancient debris deposition. New gullies were thus developed from deposits loosened and shaken up by earthquakes. Extreme earthquakes and typhoon events occurred frequently in the last 20 years. This paper analyzes the geological and geomorphologic background for the precarious areas and typhoons in central Taiwan, to make a systematic understanding of mass movement harzards. The mechanism and relations of debris flows and rainfall data in central Taiwan are analyzed. Ways for mitigating mass movement threats are also proposed in this paper. Keywords: mass movement, earthquakes, typhoons, hazard mitigation, central Ta

  6. Earthquake Hazard and Risk in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black Porto, N.; Nyst, M.

    2014-12-01

    Alaska is one of the most seismically active and tectonically diverse regions in the United States. To examine risk, we have updated the seismic hazard model in Alaska. The current RMS Alaska hazard model is based on the 2007 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Alaska (Wesson et al., 2007; Boyd et al., 2007). The 2015 RMS model will update several key source parameters, including: extending the earthquake catalog, implementing a new set of crustal faults, updating the subduction zone geometry and reoccurrence rate. First, we extend the earthquake catalog to 2013; decluster the catalog, and compute new background rates. We then create a crustal fault model, based on the Alaska 2012 fault and fold database. This new model increased the number of crustal faults from ten in 2007, to 91 faults in the 2015 model. This includes the addition of: the western Denali, Cook Inlet folds near Anchorage, and thrust faults near Fairbanks. Previously the subduction zone was modeled at a uniform depth. In this update, we model the intraslab as a series of deep stepping events. We also use the best available data, such as Slab 1.0, to update the geometry of the subduction zone. The city of Anchorage represents 80% of the risk exposure in Alaska. In the 2007 model, the hazard in Alaska was dominated by the frequent rate of magnitude 7 to 8 events (Gutenberg-Richter distribution), and large magnitude 8+ events had a low reoccurrence rate (Characteristic) and therefore didn't contribute as highly to the overall risk. We will review these reoccurrence rates, and will present the results and impact to Anchorage. We will compare our hazard update to the 2007 USGS hazard map, and discuss the changes and drivers for these changes. Finally, we will examine the impact model changes have on Alaska earthquake risk. Consider risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the

  7. Perception of earthquake risk in Taiwan: effects of gender and past earthquake experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kung, Yi-Wen; Chen, Sue-Huei

    2012-09-01

    This study explored how individuals in Taiwan perceive the risk of earthquake and the relationship of past earthquake experience and gender to risk perception. Participants (n= 1,405), including earthquake survivors and those in the general population without prior direct earthquake exposure, were selected and interviewed through a computer-assisted telephone interviewing procedure using a random sampling and stratification method covering all 24 regions of Taiwan. A factor analysis of the interview data yielded a two-factor structure of risk perception in regard to earthquake. The first factor, "personal impact," encompassed perception of threat and fear related to earthquakes. The second factor, "controllability," encompassed a sense of efficacy of self-protection in regard to earthquakes. The findings indicated prior earthquake survivors and females reported higher scores on the personal impact factor than males and those with no prior direct earthquake experience, although there were no group differences on the controllability factor. The findings support that risk perception has multiple components, and suggest that past experience (survivor status) and gender (female) affect the perception of risk. Exploration of potential contributions of other demographic factors such as age, education, and marital status to personal impact, especially for females and survivors, is discussed. Future research on and intervention program with regard to risk perception are suggested accordingly. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Development of a national system for prevention and mitigation of earthquake damages to people and properties, and the reduction of costs related to earthquakes for the Italian Government

    Science.gov (United States)

    Console, R.; Greco, M.; Colangelo, A.; Cioè, A.; Trivigno, L.; Chiappini, M.; Ponzo, F.

    2015-12-01

    Recognizing that the Italian territory is prone to disasters in connection with seismic and hydro-geological risk, it has become necessary to define novel regulations and viable solutions aimed at conveying the economical resources of the Italian Government, too often utilized for the management of post-event situations, towards prevention activities. The work synthetically presents the project developed by the CGIAM together with the INGV, and open to collaboration with other Italian and International partners. This project is aimed at the development of a National System for prevention and mitigation of the earthquakes damages, through the definition of a model that achieves the mitigation of the building collapsing risk and the consequent reduction of casualties. Such a model is based on two main issues a) a correct evaluation of risk, defined as a reliable assessment of the hazard expected at a given site and of the vulnerability of civil and industrial buildings, b) setting up of novel strategies for the safety of buildings. The hazard assessment is pursued through the application of innovative multidisciplinary geophysical methodologies and the application of a physically based earthquake simulator. The structural vulnerability of buildings is estimated by means of simplified techniques based on few representative parameters (such as different structural typologies, dynamic soil-structure interaction, etc.) and, for detailed studies, standard protocols for model updating techniques. We analyze, through numerical and experimental approaches, new solutions for the use of innovative materials, and new techniques for the reduction of seismic vulnerability of structural, non-structural and accessorial elements, including low cost type. The project activities are initially implemented on a study area in Southern Italy (Calabria) selected because of its tectonic complexity. The results are expected to be applicable for other hazardous seismic areas of Italy.

  9. 12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

  10. Earthquake Hazard and Risk in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Fitzenz, D. D.; Molas, G.

    2014-12-01

    To quantify risk in New Zealand we examine the impact of updating the seismic hazard model. The previous RMS New Zealand hazard model is based on the 2002 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2002). The 2015 RMS model, based on Stirling et al., (2012) will update several key source parameters. These updates include: implementation a new set of crustal faults including multi-segment ruptures, updating the subduction zone geometry and reccurrence rate and implementing new background rates and a robust methodology for modeling background earthquake sources. The number of crustal faults has increased by over 200 from the 2002 model, to the 2012 model which now includes over 500 individual fault sources. This includes the additions of many offshore faults in northern, east-central, and southwest regions. We also use the recent data to update the source geometry of the Hikurangi subduction zone (Wallace, 2009; Williams et al., 2013). We compare hazard changes in our updated model with those from the previous version. Changes between the two maps are discussed as well as the drivers for these changes. We examine the impact the hazard model changes have on New Zealand earthquake risk. Considered risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the loss exceedance probability curve used by insurers to address their solvency and manage their portfolio risk. We analyze risk profile changes in areas with large population density and for structures of economic and financial importance. New Zealand is interesting in that the city with the majority of the risk exposure in the country (Auckland) lies in the region of lowest hazard, where we don't have a lot of information about the location of faults and distributed seismicity is modeled by averaged Mw-frequency relationships on area sources. Thus small changes to the background rates

  11. Earthquakes, public spaces and (the social construction of environmental disasters. The role of public space for risk mitigation and urban redevelopment and the role of environmental disasters for re­ assessing the ‘space of the Public’.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Pizzo

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper stems from long­lasting research dedicated to urban risk reduction through a planning approach. It focuses on public space, proposing an inversion of the usual perspective: instead of considering public spaces for risk mitigation and urban redevelopment, here the imperatives of environmental safety and urban resilience can be instrumental for exploring the meaning and role of the public space from a different, rather compelling point of view. One starting point is the concept of SUM, Strategic Urban Structure (or Framework, from the Italian “Struttura urbana minima”, which has been introduced in order to set out the contents of urban risk reduction in local administration agendas and particularly into ordinary planning processes. The SUM has been conceived both as an analytical and a normative/planning tool. Public spaces are the backbone of both urban structure and of the SUM. From their features, localization, distribution within thesettlement, and their systemic characters, largely depend the capacity of a town to positively react to a seismic event. Six case­studies of small and medium­size historic towns in the Umbria Region (one of the many Italian Regions with a high level of seismic risk, help to understand the complexities and problems related to seismic prevention within historical centres, and the conflicts between conservation of the heritage and the imperatives of environmental safety. In order to overcome possible criticalities identified in a SUM, it is necessary to provide alternatives to its functioning through redundant elements. The concept of redundancy, which is strictly related to that of uncertainty, is very interesting and promising in this field of research.

  12. Assessment of stone columns as a mitigation technique of liquefaction-induced effects during Italian earthquakes (May 2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forcellini, Davide; Tarantino, Angelo Marcello

    2014-01-01

    Soil liquefaction has been observed worldwide during recent major earthquakes with induced effects responsible for much of the damage, disruption of function, and considerable replacement expenses for structures. The phenomenon has not been documented in recent time with such damage in Italian context before the recent Emilia-Romagna Earthquake (May 2012). The main lateral spreading and vertical deformations affected the stability of many buildings and impacted social life inducing valuable lessons on liquefaction risk assessment and remediation. This paper aims first of all to reproduce soil response to liquefaction-induced lateral effects and thus to evaluate stone column mitigation technique effectiveness by gradually increasing the extension of remediation, in order to achieve a satisfactory lower level of permanent deformations. The study is based on the use of a FE computational interface able to analyse the earthquake-induced three-dimensional pore pressure generation adopting one of the most credited nonlinear theories in order to assess realistically the displacements connected to lateral spreading.

  13. Magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes in relation to seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, R.D.

    1989-01-01

    Estimating the frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitudes on a regional basis is an important task in estimating seismic risk at a construction site. Analysis of global earthquake data provides an insight into the magnitudes frequency relationship in a statistical manner. It turns out that, whereas a linear relationship between the logarithm of earthquake occurrence rates and the corresponding earthquake magnitudes fits well in the magnitude range between 5 and 7, a second degree polynomial in M, the earthquake magnitude provides a better description of the frequencies of earthquakes in a much wider range of magnitudes. It may be possible to adopt magnitude frequency relation for regions, for which adequate earthquake data are not available, to carry out seismic risk calculations. (author). 32 refs., 8 tabs., 7 figs

  14. Isolating social influences on vulnerability to earthquake shaking: identifying cost-effective mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhloscaidh, Mairead Nic; McCloskey, John; Pelling, Mark; Naylor, Mark

    2013-04-01

    Until expensive engineering solutions become more universally available, the objective targeting of resources at demonstrably effective, low-cost interventions might help reverse the trend of increasing mortality in earthquakes. Death tolls in earthquakes are the result of complex interactions between physical effects, such as the exposure of the population to strong shaking, and the resilience of the exposed population along with supporting critical infrastructures and institutions. The identification of socio-economic factors that contribute to earthquake mortality is crucial to identifying and developing successful risk management strategies. Here we develop a quantitative methodology more objectively to assess the ability of communities to withstand earthquake shaking, focusing on, in particular, those cases where risk management performance appears to exceed or fall below expectations based on economic status. Using only published estimates of the shaking intensity and population exposure for each earthquake, data that is available for earthquakes in countries irrespective of their level of economic development, we develop a model for mortality based on the contribution of population exposure to shaking only. This represents an attempt to remove, as far as possible, the physical causes of mortality from our analysis (where we consider earthquake engineering to reduce building collapse among the socio-economic influences). The systematic part of the variance with respect to this model can therefore be expected to be dominated by socio-economic factors. We find, as expected, that this purely physical analysis partitions countries in terms of basic socio-economic measures, for example GDP, focusing analytical attention on the power of economic measures to explain variance in observed distributions of earthquake risk. The model allows the definition of a vulnerability index which, although broadly it demonstrates the expected income-dependence of vulnerability to

  15. Value of Earth Observation for Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearlman, F.; Shapiro, C. D.; Grasso, M.; Pearlman, J.; Adkins, J. E.; Pindilli, E.; Geppi, D.

    2017-12-01

    Societal benefits flowing from Earth observation are intuitively obvious as we use the information to assess natural hazards (such as storm tracks), water resources (such as flooding and droughts in coastal and riverine systems), ecosystem vitality and other dynamics that impact the health and economic well being of our population. The most powerful confirmation of these benefits would come from quantifying the impact and showing direct quantitative links in the value chain from data to decisions. However, our ability to identify and quantify those benefits is challenging. The impact of geospatial data on these types of decisions is not well characterized and assigning a true value to the observations on a broad scale across disciplines still remains to be done in a systematic way. This presentation provides the outcomes of a workshop held in October 2017 as a side event of the GEO Plenary that addressed research on economic methodologies for quantification of impacts. To achieve practical outputs during the meeting, the workshop focused on the use and value of Earth observations in risk mitigation including: ecosystem impacts, weather events, and other natural and manmade hazards. Case studies on approaches were discussed and will be part of this presentation. The presentation will also include the exchange of lessons learned and a discussion of gaps in the current understanding of the use and value of earth observation information for risk mitigation.

  16. Earthquake Disaster Risk Index for Cities: Baku, Yerevan, Tbilisi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varazanashvili, O.; Mammadli, T.; Nazaretyan, S.

    2005-01-01

    For comparative analysis of seismic risk in the capitals of the South Caucasian States - Baku, Yerevan and Tbilisi - the methodology of determination of earthquake disaster risk index (EDRI) has been used. Earthquake disaster risk indexes have been determined for considered cities. EDRI-analysis is performed, some peculiarities of main risk factors are revealed and risk portraits are made in each city of the given sample. (author)

  17. Seismicity and earthquake risk in western Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. COSENTINO

    1978-06-01

    Full Text Available The seismicity and the earthquake risk in Western Sicily are here
    evaluated on the basis of the experimental data referring to the historical
    and instrumentally recorded earthquakes in this area (from 1248
    up to 1968, which have been thoroughly collected, analyzed, tested and
    normalized in order to assure the quasi-stationarity of the series of
    events.
    The approximated magnitude values — obtained by means of a compared
    analysis of the magnitude and epicentral intensity values of the
    latest events — have allowed to study the parameters of the frequency-
    magnitude relation with both the classical exponential model and
    the truncated exponential one previously proposed by the author.
    So, the basic parameters, including the maximum possible regional
    magnitude, have been estimated by means of different procedures, and
    their behaviours have been studied as functions of the threshold magnitude.

  18. Web-Based Real Time Earthquake Forecasting and Personal Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquake forecasts have been computed by a variety of countries and economies world-wide for over two decades. For the most part, forecasts have been computed for insurance, reinsurance and underwriters of catastrophe bonds. One example is the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities that has been responsible for the official California earthquake forecast since 1988. However, in a time of increasingly severe global financial constraints, we are now moving inexorably towards personal risk management, wherein mitigating risk is becoming the responsibility of individual members of the public. Under these circumstances, open access to a variety of web-based tools, utilities and information is a necessity. Here we describe a web-based system that has been operational since 2009 at www.openhazards.com and www.quakesim.org. Models for earthquake physics and forecasting require input data, along with model parameters. The models we consider are the Natural Time Weibull (NTW) model for regional earthquake forecasting, together with models for activation and quiescence. These models use small earthquakes ('seismicity-based models") to forecast the occurrence of large earthquakes, either through varying rates of small earthquake activity, or via an accumulation of this activity over time. These approaches use data-mining algorithms combined with the ANSS earthquake catalog. The basic idea is to compute large earthquake probabilities using the number of small earthquakes that have occurred in a region since the last large earthquake. Each of these approaches has computational challenges associated with computing forecast information in real time. Using 25 years of data from the ANSS California-Nevada catalog of earthquakes, we show that real-time forecasting is possible at a grid scale of 0.1o. We have analyzed the performance of these models using Reliability/Attributes and standard Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) tests. We show how the Reliability and

  19. Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Compendium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meinhold, A.; Greene, B.; Dussich, J.; Sorkin, A.; Olsen, W.

    2017-01-01

    The Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) Principal Center and its predecessor organization the Acquisition Pollution Prevention Program (AP2) supported the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in identifying technology solutions to risks and costs to NASA programs driven by environmental regulations and requirements. TEERM researched the commercial and government marketplace to locate viable and available technologies that met NASAs needs. TEERM focused on addressing environmentally-driven risks of direct concern to NASA programs and facilities, including hazardous materials in NASA operations and materials that became obsolescent because of environmental regulations. TEERM projects aimed to reduce cost; ensure the health and safety of people, assets, and the environment; promote efficiency; and minimize duplication. Major TEERM and AP2 projects focused on waste minimization and hazardous waste treatment, recycling, corrosion prevention and control, solvent and ozone depleting substances substitution, and aqueous based cleaners. In 2017, NASA made the decision to terminate the TEERM Principal Center. This Compendium Report documents TEERM and AP2 project successes. The Compendium Report traces the evolution of TEERM based on evolving risks and requirements for NASA and its relationship to the Space Shuttle Program, the United States Department of Defense, the European Space Agency, and other public and private stakeholders. This Compendium Report also documents project details from Project Summaries and Joint Test Plans and describes project stakeholders and collaborative effort results.

  20. Brief communication "Fast-track earthquake risk assessment for selected urban areas in Turkey"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Kepekci

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available This study is presented as a contribution to earthquake disaster mitigation studies for selected cities in Turkey. The risk evaluations must be based on earthquake hazard analysis and city information. To estimate the ground motion level, data for earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 4.5 and an epicenter location within a 100-km radius of each city were used for the period from 1900 to 2006, as recorded at the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for each city was carried out using Poisson probabilistic approaches. Ground motion level was estimated as the probability of a given degree of acceleration with a 10% exceedence rate during a 50-year time period for each city. The risk level of each city was evaluated using the number of houses, the per-capita income of city residents, population, and ground motion levels. The maximum risk level obtained for the cities was taken as a reference value for relative risk assessment, and other risk values were estimated relative to the maximum risk level. When the selected cities were classified according to their relative risk levels, the five most risky cities were found to be, in descending order of risk, Istanbul, Izmir, Ankara, Bursa, and Kocaeli.

  1. A risk-mitigation approach to the management of induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommer, Julian J.; Crowley, Helen; Pinho, Rui

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes may be induced by a wide range of anthropogenic activities such as mining, fluid injection and extraction, and hydraulic fracturing. In recent years, the increased occurrence of induced seismicity and the impact of some of these earthquakes on the built environment have heightened both public concern and regulatory scrutiny, motivating the need for a framework for the management of induced seismicity. Efforts to develop systems to enable control of seismicity have not yet resulted in solutions that can be applied with confidence in most cases. The more rational approach proposed herein is based on applying the same risk quantification and mitigation measures that are applied to the hazard from natural seismicity. This framework allows informed decision-making regarding the conduct of anthropogenic activities that may cause earthquakes. The consequent risk, if related to non-structural damage (when re-location is not an option), can be addressed by appropriate financial compensation. If the risk poses a threat to life and limb, then it may be reduced through the application of strengthening measures in the built environment—the cost of which can be balanced against the economic benefits of the activity in question—rather than attempting to ensure that some threshold on earthquake magnitude or ground-shaking amplitude is not exceeded. However, because of the specific characteristics of induced earthquakes—which may occur in regions with little or no natural seismicity—the procedures used in standard earthquake engineering need adaptation and modification for application to induced seismicity.

  2. Living in a tinderbox: wildfire risk perceptions and mitigating behaviours

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia A. Champ; Geoffrey H. Donovan; Christopher M. Barth

    2013-01-01

    The loss of homes to wildfires is an important issue in the USA and other countries. Yet many homeowners living in fire-prone areas do not undertake mitigating actions, such as clearing vegetation, to decrease the risk of losing their home. To better understand the complexity of wildfire risk-mitigation decisions and the role of perceived risk, we conducted a survey of...

  3. The earthquake/seismic risk, vulnerability and capacity profile for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was carried out to understand the risks posed by earthquakes in Karonga based on roles and perception of stakeholders. Information was collected from several stakeholders who were found responding to earthquakes impacts in Karonga Town. The study found that several stakeholders, governmental and ...

  4. Challenges to communicate risks of human-caused earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, C. D.

    2014-12-01

    The awareness of natural hazards has been up-trending in recent years. In particular, this is true for earthquakes, which increase in frequency and magnitude in regions that normally do not experience seismic activity. In fact, one of the major concerns for many communities and businesses is that humans today seem to cause earthquakes due to large-scale shale gas production, dewatering and flooding of mines and deep geothermal power production. Accordingly, without opposing any of these technologies it should be a priority of earth scientists who are researching natural hazards to communicate earthquake risks. This presentation discusses the challenges that earth scientists are facing to properly communicate earthquake risks, in light of the fact that human-caused earthquakes are an environmental change affecting only some communities and businesses. Communication channels may range from research papers, books and class room lectures to outreach events and programs, popular media events or even social media networks.

  5. JCL roundtable: Risk evaluation and mitigation strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, W Virgil; Bramlet, Dean A; Ross, Joyce L; Underberg, James A

    Many factors enter into the decision by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to approve a new drug for use by physicians and other health care providers in treating diseases. Initially, the FDA authority was restricted to issues of safety and only later did the documentation of efficacy become part of the review process required for approval. However, all drugs have the potential for causing harm at some dose level to all and at lower doses in certain patients with vulnerability to the particular pharmacology of the agent. As new drugs have been designed to manage disorders that are uncommon, but of significant consequence, they may have adverse effects that are acceptable only because they are so uniquely beneficial to these specific conditions. The risk of these adverse effects may be acceptable since the benefit can outweigh the harm in most patients and the adversity can be predicted and managed. The approval of this category of drugs has grown rapidly since definition of a mechanism of action to manage and modify the risk has been provided by a process known as known as Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy or "REMS." In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act (FDAAA) allowed the FDA to require postmarketing studies and the authority to mandate the implementation of a REMS for drugs with efficacy but documented potential for harm. Two relatively new drugs useful in the management of severe elevations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol have been approved under a requirement for a REMS. These are lomitapide, an inhibitor of microsomal triglyceride transfer protein and mipomersen, an antisense oligonucleotide which reduces the synthesis of apolipoprotein B. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Statistical aspects and risks of human-caused earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, C. D.

    2013-12-01

    The seismological community invests ample human capital and financial resources to research and predict risks associated with earthquakes. Industries such as the insurance and re-insurance sector are equally interested in using probabilistic risk models developed by the scientific community to transfer risks. These models are used to predict expected losses due to naturally occurring earthquakes. But what about the risks associated with human-caused earthquakes? Such risk models are largely absent from both industry and academic discourse. In countries around the world, informed citizens are becoming increasingly aware and concerned that this economic bias is not sustainable for long-term economic growth, environmental and human security. Ultimately, citizens look to their government officials to hold industry accountable. In the Netherlands, for example, the hydrocarbon industry is held accountable for causing earthquakes near Groningen. In Switzerland, geothermal power plants were shut down or suspended because they caused earthquakes in canton Basel and St. Gallen. The public and the private non-extractive industry needs access to information about earthquake risks in connection with sub/urban geoengineeing activities, including natural gas production through fracking, geothermal energy production, carbon sequestration, mining and water irrigation. This presentation illuminates statistical aspects of human-caused earthquakes with respect to different geologic environments. Statistical findings are based on the first catalog of human-caused earthquakes (in Klose 2013). Findings are discussed which include the odds to die during a medium-size earthquake that is set off by geomechanical pollution. Any kind of geoengineering activity causes this type of pollution and increases the likelihood of triggering nearby faults to rupture.

  7. Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katherine Dickinson; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Patricia Champ; Nicholas Flores

    2015-01-01

    Social interactions are widely recognized as a potential influence on risk-related behaviors. We present a mediation model in which social interactions (classified as formal/informal and generic-fire-specific) are associated with beliefs about wildfire risk and mitigation options, which in turn shape wildfire mitigation behaviors. We test this model using survey data...

  8. Bayesian probabilistic network approach for managing earthquake risks of cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bayraktarli, Yahya; Faber, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This paper considers the application of Bayesian probabilistic networks (BPNs) to large-scale risk based decision making in regard to earthquake risks. A recently developed risk management framework is outlined which utilises Bayesian probabilistic modelling, generic indicator based risk models...... and a fourth module on the consequences of an earthquake. Each of these modules is integrated into a BPN. Special attention is given to aggregated risk, i.e. the risk contribution from assets at multiple locations in a city subjected to the same earthquake. The application of the methodology is illustrated...... on an example considering a portfolio of reinforced concrete structures in a city located close to the western part of the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey....

  9. Earthquake insurance pricing: a risk-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jeng-Hsiang

    2018-04-01

    Flat earthquake premiums are 'uniformly' set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk-based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

  10. Time-Dependent Risk Estimation and Cost-Benefit Analysis for Mitigation Actions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Stiphout, T.; Wiemer, S.; Marzocchi, W.

    2009-04-01

    Earthquakes strongly cluster in space and time. Consequently, the most dangerous time is right after a moderate earthquake has happened, because their is a ‘high' (i.e., 2-5 percent) probability that this event will be followed by a subsequent aftershock which happens to be as large or larger than the initiating event. The seismic hazard during this time-period exceeds the background probability significantly and by several orders of magnitude. Scientists have developed increasingly accurate forecast models that model this time-dependent hazard, and such models are currently being validated in prospective testing. However, this probabilistic information in the hazard space is difficult to digest for decision makers, the media and general public. Here, we introduce a possible bridge between seismology and decision makers (authorities, civil defense) by proposing a more objective way to estimate time-dependent risk assessment. Short Term Earthquake Risk assessment (STEER) combines aftershock hazard and loss assessments. We use site-specific information on site effects and building class distribution and combine this with existing loss models to compute site specific time-dependent risk curves (probability of exceedance for fatalities, injuries, damages etc). We show the effect of uncertainties in the different components using Monte Carlo Simulations of the input parameters. This time-dependent risk curves can act as a decision support. We extend the STEER approach by introducing a Cost-Benefit approach for certain mitigation actions after a medium-sized earthquake. Such Cost-Benefit approaches have been recently developed for volcanic risk assessment to rationalize precautionary evacuations in densely inhabitated areas threatened by volcanoes. Here we extend the concept to time-dependent probabilistic seismic risk assessment. For the Cost-Benefit analysis of mitigation actions we calculate the ratio between the cost for the mitigation actions and the cost of the

  11. Earthquake and volcano hazard notices: An economic evaluation of changes in risk perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernknopf, R.L.; Brookshire, D.S.; Thayer, M.A.

    1990-01-01

    Earthquake and volcano hazard notices were issued for the Mammoth Lakes, California area by the U.S. Geological Survey under the authority granted by the Disaster Relief Act of 1974. The effects on investment, recretion visitation, and risk perceptionsare explored. The hazard notices did not affect recreation visitation, although investment was affected. A perceived loss in the market value of homes was documented. Risk perceptions were altered for property owners. Communication of the probability of an event over time would enhance hazard notices as a policy instrument and would mitigate unnecessary market perturbations. ?? 1990.

  12. Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  13. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

  14. Earthquakes: Risk, Monitoring, Notification, and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-19

    States are as much as 30% lower for certain types of ground motion, called long-period seismic waves, which affect taller , multistory buildings. Ground...jump between connected faults. Earthquakes that occur along the Sierra Madre Fault in southern California, for example, could trigger a series of

  15. Disaster risk mitigation – why human rights matter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter Kälin

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Existing human rights obligations already require states totake measures to mitigate the risks of natural or man-madedisasters – including those due to climate change – and thusto prevent displacement.

  16. Social and ethical perspectives of landslide risk mitigation measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalsnes, Bjørn; Vangelsten, Bjørn V.

    2015-04-01

    Landslide risk may be mitigated by use of a wide range of measures. Mitigation and prevention options may include (1) structural measures to reduce the frequency, severity or exposure to the hazard, (2) non-structural measures, such as land-use planning and early warning systems, to reduce the hazard frequency and consequences, and (3) measures to pool and transfer the risks. In a given situation the appropriate system of mitigation measures may be a combination of various types of measures, both structural and non-structural. In the process of choosing mitigation measures for a given landslide risk situation, the role of the geoscientist is normally to propose possible mitigation measures on basis of the risk level and technical feasibility. Social and ethical perspectives are often neglected in this process. However, awareness of the need to consider social as well as ethical issues in the design and management of mitigating landslide risk is rising. There is a growing understanding that technical experts acting alone cannot determine what will be considered the appropriate set of mitigation and prevention measures. Issues such as environment versus development, questions of acceptable risk, who bears the risks and benefits, and who makes the decisions, also need to be addressed. Policymakers and stakeholders engaged in solving environmental risk problems are increasingly recognising that traditional expert-based decision-making processes are insufficient. This paper analyse the process of choosing appropriate mitigation measures to mitigate landslide risk from a social and ethical perspective, considering technical, cultural, economical, environmental and political elements. The paper focus on stakeholder involvement in the decision making process, and shows how making strategies for risk communication is a key for a successful process. The study is supported by case study examples from Norway and Italy. In the Italian case study, three different risk mitigation

  17. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

    2012-01-17

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  18. An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

  19. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  20. Risk exposure mitigation: Approaches and recognised instruments (5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The risk management function development in banks, along with the development of tools that banks can use throughout this process, has had the strong support in international standards, not only in the recommended approaches for calculating economic capital requirements, but also in the qualitatively new treatment of risk exposure mitigation instruments (Basel Accord II. The array of eligible instruments for exposure mitigation under the recommended approaches for their treatment becomes the essential element of economic capital requirements calculation, both in relation to certain types of risk, and in relation to aggregate exposure.

  1. Risk exposure mitigation: Approaches and recognised instruments (3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The risk management function development in banks, along with the development of tools that banks can use throughout this process, has had the strong support in international standards, not only in the recommended approaches for calculating economic capital requirements, but also in the qualitatively new treatment of risk exposure mitigation instruments (Basel Accord II. The array of eligible instruments for exposure mitigation under the recommended approaches for their treatment becomes the essential element of economic capital requirements calculation, both in relation to certain types of risk, and in relation to aggregate exposure.

  2. Risk exposure mitigation: Approaches and recognised instruments (6

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The risk management function development in banks, along with the development of tools that banks can use throughout this process, has had the strong support in international standards, not only in the recommended approaches for calculating economic capital requirements, but also in the qualitatively new treatment of risk exposure mitigation instruments (Basel Accord II. The array of eligible instruments for exposure mitigation under the recommended approaches for their treatment becomes the essential element of economic capital requirements calculation, both in relation to certain types of risk, and in relation to aggregate exposure.

  3. Carbon recovery rates following different wildfire risk mitigation treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Hurteau; M. North

    2010-01-01

    Sequestered forest carbon can provide a climate change mitigation benefit, but in dry temperate forests, wildfire poses a reversal risk to carbon offset projects. Reducing wildfire risk requires a reduction in and redistribution of carbon stocks, the benefit of which is only realized when wildfire occurs. To estimate the time needed to recover carbon removed and...

  4. Uniform risk spectra of strong earthquake ground motion: NEQRISK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, V.W.; Trifunac, M.D.

    1987-01-01

    The concept of uniform risk spectra of Anderson and Trifunac (1977) has been generalized to include (1) more refined description of earthquake source zones, (2) the uncertainties in estimating seismicity parameters a and b in log 10 N = a - bM, (3) to consider uncertainties in estimation of maximum earthquake size in each source zone, and to (4) include the most recent results on empirical scaling of strong motion amplitudes at a site. Examples of using to new NEQRISK program are presented and compared with the corresponding case studies of Anderson and Trifunac (1977). The organization of the computer program NEQRISK is also briefly described

  5. Global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  6. Wildfire communication and climate risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Eric. Toman

    2017-01-01

    Throughout the late 19th century and most of the 20th century, risks associated with wildfire were addressed by suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, by the 1960s, it became clear that fire exclusion policies were having adverse effects on ecological health, as well as contributing to larger and more damaging wildfires over time. Although federal fire...

  7. From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

    2015-12-01

    Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

  8. Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2015-06-16

    Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

  9. Risk Management in Earthquakes, Financial Markets, and the Game of 21: The role of Forecasting, Nowcasting, and Timecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquakes and financial markets share surprising similarities [1]. For example, the well-known VIX index, which by definition is the implied volatility of the Standard and Poors 500 index, behaves in very similar quantitative fashion to time series for earthquake rates. Both display sudden increases at the time of an earthquake or an announcement of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee [2], and both decay as an inverse power of time. Both can be regarded as examples of first order phase transitions [1], and display fractal and scaling behavior associated with critical transitions, such as power-law magnitude-frequency relations in the tails of the distributions. Early quantitative investors such as Edward Thorpe and John Kelly invented novel methods to mitigate or manage risk in games of chance such as blackjack, and in markets using hedging techniques that are still in widespread use today. The basic idea is the concept of proportional betting, where the gambler/investor bets a fraction of the bankroll whose size is determined by the "edge" or inside knowledge of the real (and changing) odds. For earthquake systems, the "edge" over nature can only exist in the form of a forecast (probability of a future earthquake); a nowcast (knowledge of the current state of an earthquake fault system); or a timecast (statistical estimate of the waiting time until the next major earthquake). In our terminology, a forecast is a model, while the nowcast and timecast are analysis methods using observed data only (no model). We also focus on defined geographic areas rather than on faults, thereby eliminating the need to consider specific fault data or fault interactions. Data used are online earthquake catalogs, generally since 1980. Forecasts are based on the Weibull (1952) probability law, and only a handful of parameters are needed. These methods allow the development of real time hazard and risk estimation using cloud-based technologies, and permit the application of

  10. Probabilistic risk assessment of earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant and subsequent upgrade to reduce risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Day, S.A.

    1989-01-01

    An analysis to determine the risk associated with earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant was performed. Seismic analyses and structural evaluations were used to postulate building and equipment damage and radiological releases to the environment from various magnitudes of earthquakes. Dispersion modeling and dose assessment to the public were then calculated. The frequency of occurrence of various magnitudes of earthquakes were determined from the Department of Energy natural Phenomena Hazards Modeling Project. Risk to the public was probabilistically assessed for each magnitude of earthquake and for overall seismic risk. Based on the results of this Probabilistic Risk Assessment and a cost/benefit analysis, seismic upgrades are being implemented for several plutonium-handling facilities for the purpose of risk reduction

  11. MITIGATING INNOVATION RISKS CONCERNING INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY INSTRUMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea DUMITRESCU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available As protection of innovation is possible using a variety of intellectual property instruments, the current paper aims at emphasizing the vulnerabilities of these instruments in order to facilitate the right choice in terms of protection, exploitation and dissemination of innovation. Based on a review of the intellectual property instruments and their related risk factors, the study identifies and formulates specific proactive strategies which arise from the fact that an instrument alone does not allow for effective protection, exploitation and dissemination and oftentimes the owners of innovation should combine traditional and alternative instruments. Therefore, the results of this analysis represent a helpful tool for managers in the decisional process.

  12. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirsch, R.L. (SAIC); Bezdek, Roger (MISI); Wendling, Robert (MISI)

    2005-02-01

    The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.... The purpose of this analysis was to identify the critical issues surrounding the occurrence and mitigation of world oil production peaking. We simplified many of the complexities in an effort to provide a transparent analysis. Nevertheless, our study is neither simple nor brief. We recognize that when oil prices escalate dramatically, there will be demand and economic impacts that will alter our simplified assumptions. Consideration of those feedbacks will be a daunting task but one that should be undertaken. Our aim in this study is to-- • Summarize the difficulties of oil production forecasting; • Identify the fundamentals that show why world oil production peaking is such a unique challenge; • Show why mitigation will take a decade or more of intense effort; • Examine the potential economic effects of oil peaking; • Describe what might be accomplished under three example mitigation scenarios. • Stimulate serious discussion of the problem, suggest more definitive studies, and engender interest in timely action to mitigate its impacts.

  13. The impact of earthquakes on the city of Aigio in Greece. Urban planning as a factor in mitigating seismic damage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Athanasopoulou, Evanthia; Despoiniadou, Varvara; Dritsos, Stefanos

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the effects of the mortal earthquake on the city of Aigio in Greece in 1995, with particular focus on urbanization and planning policies. It is based on interviews with experts and surveys on damage to buildings following this earthquake. The analysis takes into account several factors, such as exact location, land use, construction period and the height of damaged buildings. Furthermore, the relationship between the seismic damage and the postseismic construction development of Aigio is examined and the conclusion is reached that the Greek urban planning system needs to be better organized to prepare for seismic damage. To this end, the paper recommends a five-point discussion agenda for applying local planning to seismic mitigation

  14. The impact of earthquakes on the city of Aigio in Greece. Urban planning as a factor in mitigating seismic damage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athanasopoulou, Evanthia; Despoiniadou, Varvara; Dritsos, Stefanos

    2008-07-01

    This paper examines the effects of the mortal earthquake on the city of Aigio in Greece in 1995, with particular focus on urbanization and planning policies. It is based on interviews with experts and surveys on damage to buildings following this earthquake. The analysis takes into account several factors, such as exact location, land use, construction period and the height of damaged buildings. Furthermore, the relationship between the seismic damage and the postseismic construction development of Aigio is examined and the conclusion is reached that the Greek urban planning system needs to be better organized to prepare for seismic damage. To this end, the paper recommends a five-point discussion agenda for applying local planning to seismic mitigation.

  15. MITIGATING FINANCIAL RISK BY USING HEDGING STRATEGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anca BUTNARIU

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Financial derivatives are now widely used by corporations to manage exposure to currency, interest rate, and commodity price risks. The motivation for non-financial firms to engage in corporate hedging is one of the most intensively discussed topics in corporate finance research. Recent financial theory suggests that there are several ways through which corporate hedging can increase firm value in the sense of the maximization of shareholder value. A rich body of literature consists of studies that have empirically investigated the theoretical explanations for corporate hedging, literature that presents rather mixed evidence for the drivers of corporate hedging. This paper investigates the effects of hedging activity on non-financial firm value and how operational hedging is related to and differentiated by financial hedging, by providing an extensive overview and synthesis of the existing literature.

  16. Risk Mitigation in Triadic Network Configurations within a Servitized Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Raja, Jawwad; Roehrich, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This paper examines risk mitigation for a servitizing organisation and its supply network configuration. This is an area of research that has not been adequately explored to date within a servitization context. In particular, the paper examines triadic configurations using an agency pers...

  17. Security Risks: Management and Mitigation in the Software Life Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliam, David P.

    2004-01-01

    A formal approach to managing and mitigating security risks in the software life cycle is requisite to developing software that has a higher degree of assurance that it is free of security defects which pose risk to the computing environment and the organization. Due to its criticality, security should be integrated as a formal approach in the software life cycle. Both a software security checklist and assessment tools should be incorporated into this life cycle process and integrated with a security risk assessment and mitigation tool. The current research at JPL addresses these areas through the development of a Sotfware Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) and integrating it with a Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) risk management tool.

  18. Mitigating flood exposure: Reducing disaster risk and trauma signature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city's worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods . We applied the "trauma signature analysis" (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results . Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion . In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation.

  19. Development of fire risk assessment method caused by earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitomo, Nobuo; Matsukura, Hiroshi; Matsuoka, Takeshi; Suzuki, Kazutaka

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to establish the assessment method of the risk of the multiple fires caused by earthquake, in the framework of PSA. In order to establish this method, we have settled four tasks and started a five years research project in 1999 for five years. These results will be useful for not only nuclear power plants but also chemical plants, traffic systems etc. (author)

  20. Insight into the Earthquake Risk Information Seeking Behavior of the Victims: Evidence from Songyuan, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shasha Li

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Efficient risk communication is a vital way to reduce the vulnerability of individuals when facing emergency risks, especially regarding earthquakes. Efficient risk communication aims at improving the supply of risk information and fulfilling the need for risk information by individuals. Therefore, an investigation into individual-level information seeking behavior within earthquake risk contexts is very important for improved earthquake risk communication. However, at present there are very few studies that have explored the behavior of individuals seeking earthquake risk information. Under the guidance of the Risk Information Seeking and Processing model as well as relevant practical findings using the structural equation model, this study attempts to explore the main determinants of an individual’s earthquake risk information seeking behavior, and to validate the mediator effect of information need during the seeking process. A questionnaire-based survey of 918 valid respondents in Songyuan, China, who had been hit by a small earthquake swarm, was used to provide practical evidence for this study. Results indicated that information need played a noteworthy role in the earthquake risk information seeking process, and was detected both as an immediate predictor and as a mediator. Informational subjective norms drive the seeking behavior on earthquake risk information through both direct and indirect approaches. Perceived information gathering capacity, negative affective responses and risk perception have an indirect effect on earthquake risk information seeking behavior via information need. The implications for theory and practice regarding risk communication are discussed and concluded.

  1. Uniform risk functionals for characterization of strong earthquake ground motions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, J.G.; Trifunac, M.D.

    1978-01-01

    A uniform risk functional (e.g., Fourier spectrum, response spectrum, duration, etc.) is defined so that the probability that it is exceeded by some earthquake during a selected period of time is independent of the frequency of seismic waves. Such a functional is derived by an independent calculation, at each frequency, for the probability that the quantity being considered will be exceeded. Different aspects of the seismicity can control the amplitude of a uniform risk functional in different frequency ranges, and a uniform risk functional does not necessarily describe the strong shaking from any single earthquake. To be useful for calculating uniform risk functionals, a scaling relationship must provide an independent estimate of amplitudes of the functional in several frequency bands. The scaling relationship of Trifunac (1976) for Fourier spectra satisfies this requirement and further describes the distribution of spectral amplitudes about the mean trend; here, it is applied to find uniform risk Fourier amplitude spectra. In an application to finding the uniform risk spectra at a realistic site, this method is quite sensitive to the description of seismicity. Distinct models of seismicity, all consistent with our current level of knowledge of an area, can give significantly different risk estimates

  2. Use of Ground Motion Simulations of a Historical Earthquake for the Assessment of Past and Future Urban Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kentel, E.; Çelik, A.; karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.

    2017-12-01

    Erzincan city located in the Eastern part of Turkey at the conjunction of three active faults is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. In addition to several historical events, this city has experienced one of the largest earthquakes during the last century: The 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) event. With limited knowledge of the tectonic structure by then, the city center was relocated to the North after the 1939 earthquake by almost 5km, indeed closer to the existing major strike slip fault. This decision coupled with poor construction technologies, led to severe damage during a later event that occurred on 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6). The 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms whereas the 1992 event was only recorded by 3 nearby stations. There are empirical isoseismal maps from both events indicating indirectly the spatial distribution of the damage. In this study, we focus on this region and present a multidisciplinary approach to discuss the different components of uncertainties involved in the assessment and mitigation of seismic risk in urban areas. For this initial attempt, ground motion simulation of the 1939 event is performed to obtain the anticipated ground motions and shaking intensities. Using these quantified results along with the spatial distribution of the observed damage, the relocation decision is assessed and suggestions are provided for future large earthquakes to minimize potential earthquake risks.

  3. DimeRisk Project: Development of an educational and training program for the prevention and mitigation of seismic risk in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín-González, Fidel; Martín-Velazquez, Silvia; Giner-Robles, Jorge; Martínez-Díaz, Jose Jesus; Rodríguez-Pascua, Miguel Angel; Béjar, Marta; Pérez-López, Raul; López, Jose Antonio; Morales, Javier; Barranco, Ana; Palomo, Isabel

    2014-05-01

    In Spain, due to the low recurrence of earthquakes in the last century, there is no awareness of seismic risk and prevention plans. For this reason, moderate magnitude earthquakes have generated significant damage and casualties. However, the risk is evident, in Spain during the nineteenth century there were more than five destructive earthquakes with intensities greater than VIII (e.g. Arenas del Rey IX-X, Torrevieja IX-X). A recent example was the 2011 Lorca earthquake, that with moderate magnitudes and intensities (magnitude Mw 5.2, intensity VI) it struck a populated area with old historic buildings and a population unprepared (9 victims, 324 injured, 1,200 million in reparations). In this earthquake many errors were found in the behavior of the population and in the basic self-protection measures. Many countries have educational programs that significantly reduce the damage and losses caused by earthquakes. The objective of this project (Dimerisk project) is to generate training and educational materials that help mitigate the damage and losses caused by earthquakes. This project is based on plans of experienced countries (e.g. U.S.A., Italy, Mexico, New Zealand) but having into account the mistakes made in the last earthquake in Spain, and also the characteristics of the Spanish educational system and building characteristics. This project has been founded by FUNDACION MAPFRE. The team is formed by geologist, earthquake researchers and teachers at secondary schools and universities. The ultimate goal is to generate material that can inform about the seismic and geological processes that participate in an earthquake and the basics of self-protection against earthquakes. This project has focused on scenarios (offices, factories, homes, education centers) and educational levels (schools, colleges and universities). Educational materials have been also developed for different educational levels with basic concepts related to seismicity, how to behave during an

  4. Pain management and opioid risk mitigation in the military.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpe Potter, Jennifer; Bebarta, Vikhyat S; Marino, Elise N; Ramos, Rosemarie G; Turner, Barbara J

    2014-05-01

    Opioid analgesics misuse is a significant military health concern recognized as a priority issue by military leadership. Opioids are among those most commonly prescribed medications in the military for pain management. The military has implemented opioid risk mitigation strategies, including the Sole Provider Program and the Controlled Drug Management Analysis and Reporting Tool, which are used to identify and monitor for risk and misuse. However, there are substantial opportunities to build on these existing systems to better ensure safer opioid prescribing and monitor for misuse. Opioid risk mitigation strategies implemented by the civilian sector include establishing clinical guidelines for opioid prescribing and prescription monitoring programs. These strategies may help to inform opioid risk mitigation in the military health system. Reducing the risk of opioid misuse and improving quality of care for our Warfighters is necessary. This must be done through evidence-based approaches with an investment in research to improve patient care and prevent opioid misuse as well as its sequelae. Reprint & Copyright © 2014 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

  5. Post mitigation impact risk analysis for asteroid deflection demonstration missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggl, Siegfried; Hestroffer, Daniel; Thuillot, William; Bancelin, David; Cano, Juan L.; Cichocki, Filippo

    2015-08-01

    Even though mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts, only the realization of mitigation demonstration missions can validate this claim. Such a deflection demonstration attempt has to be cost effective, easy to validate, and safe in the sense that harmless asteroids must not be turned into potentially hazardous objects. Uncertainties in an asteroid's orbital and physical parameters as well as those additionally introduced during a mitigation attempt necessitate an in depth analysis of deflection mission designs in order to dispel planetary safety concerns. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential kinetic impactor based deflection demonstration missions proposed in the framework of the NEOShield project. Our results confirm that mitigation induced uncertainties have a significant influence on the deflection outcome. Those cannot be neglected in post deflection impact risk studies. We show, furthermore, that deflection missions have to be assessed on an individual basis in order to ensure that asteroids are not inadvertently transported closer to the Earth at a later date. Finally, we present viable targets and mission designs for a kinetic impactor test to be launched between the years 2025 and 2032.

  6. Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

    2017-01-01

    The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

  7. Human Trafficking in Nepal: Post-Earthquake Risk and Response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyawali, Bishal; Keeling, June; Kallestrup, Per

    2017-04-01

    As Nepal mourns the 1-year commemoration of the April 2015 earthquake and its aftershocks that killed more than 8500 people and left thousands injured and displaced, other more hidden repercussions of the resultant chaotic environment need attention: the increased risk of human trafficking. Considering that natural disasters provide a milieu for this illicit trade, there is a need for a robust response from stakeholders such as donors, civil society organizations, and government organizations against human trafficking following disasters such as the Nepal earthquake. Responsibility to prevent and fight trafficking should be explicitly included in the mandate of relief and rehabilitation mechanisms set up at the national level to coordinate the disaster relief response, serving to support populations in both rural and urban areas. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:153-154).

  8. Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

  9. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

    2013-03-01

    To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

  10. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  11. Decision making biases in the communication of earthquake risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh, M. B.; Steacy, S.; Begg, S. H.; Navarro, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    L'Aquila, with 6 scientists convicted of manslaughter, shocked the scientific community, leading to urgent re-appraisal of communication methods for low-probability, high-impact events. Before the trial, a commission investigating the earthquake recommended risk assessment be formalised via operational earthquake forecasts and that social scientists be enlisted to assist in developing communication strategies. Psychological research has identified numerous decision biases relevant to this, including hindsight bias, where people (after the fact) overestimate an event's predictability. This affects experts as well as naïve participants as it relates to their ability to construct a plausible causal story rather than the likelihood of the event. Another problem is availability, which causes overestimation of the likelihood of observed rare events due to their greater noteworthiness. This, however, is complicated by the 'description-experience' gap, whereby people underestimate probabilities for events they have not experienced. That is, people who have experienced strong earthquakes judge them more likely while those who have not judge them less likely - relative to actual probabilities. Finally, format changes alter people's decisions. That is people treat '1 in 10,000' as different from 0.01% despite their mathematical equivalence. Such effects fall under the broad term framing, which describes how different framings of the same event alter decisions. In particular, people's attitude to risk depends significantly on how scenarios are described. We examine the effect of biases on the communication of change in risk. South Australian participants gave responses to scenarios describing familiar (bushfire) or unfamiliar (earthquake) risks. While bushfires are rare in specific locations, significant fire events occur each year and are extensively covered. By comparison, our study location (Adelaide) last had a M5 quake in 1954. Preliminary results suggest the description

  12. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ...] Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals... announcing a public workshop entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science... constructive dialogue and information-sharing among regulators, researchers, the pharmaceutical industry...

  13. Black swan risk management : The moderation effect of risk mitigation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, Q; Krikke, H.R.; Caniels, M.C.J.; Pawar, K.S.; Rogers, H.

    2013-01-01

    Many scholars have discussed supply chain risk mitigation on operational risks, but less on rare, highly influential, and retrospective predictable risks, such as natural disasters, epidemics, and socio-political crises. They are Black Swan risks (Taleb, 2007). More than disrupting supply chains,

  14. Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, Joshua A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foxall, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bachmann, Corinne [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chiaramonte, Laura [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Daley, Thomas M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-01-28

    Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO2 injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO2 injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO2 storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO2-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk

  15. Risk Aversion and Public Reporting. Part 2: Mitigation Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahian, David M; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Badhwar, Vinay; D'Agostino, Richard S; Bavaria, Joseph E; Prager, Richard L

    2017-12-01

    Part 1 of this review summarizes the consequences of risk aversion and the observational studies and surveys relevant to this phenomenon, almost all of which are derived from cardiac surgery and interventional cardiology. In Part 2, we describe the root cause of risk aversion-the belief by providers that current risk adjustment is inadequate to account for the severity of their highest-risk patients, thereby prejudicing their publicly reported performance scores. Evidence supporting the robustness of current risk adjustment is presented, as well as nine potential strategies to further mitigate risk aversion: optimization of data source, risk models, and performance measures; exclusion of high-risk patients; exclusion of non-procedure-related end points; separate reporting of high-risk patients; reporting by condition or diagnosis rather than by procedures; reporting at the hospital or program level rather than the physician level; collaborative, cross-disciplinary decision making; active surveillance for risk aversion; and improved stakeholder education. Of these, the first is most desirable, widely applicable, and resistant to gaming. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Disease management mitigates risk of pathogen transmission from maricultured salmonids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jones, Simon R. M.; Bruno, David W.; Madsen, Lone

    2015-01-01

    that increased risk of exposure to neighbouring farms is inversely related to distance from and directly related to biomass at the source of infection. Epidemiological techniques integrating data from oceanography, diagnostics and pathogen shedding rates and viability contribute to improved understanding...... management thresholds. For wild populations, risk of pathogen spillback is estimated from farm-based epidemiological data; however, validation, particularly for ISAV and SAV, is required using direct surveillance....... of pathogen transmission pathways among farms and permit the designation of areas of risk associated with sources of infection. Occupation of an area of risk may increase the likelihood of exposure, infection and disease among susceptible fish. Disease mitigation in mariculture occurs at 2 scales: area...

  17. Environmental risk evaluation to minimize impacts within the area affected by the Wenchuan earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du, Pengfei; Chen, Jining; Chen, Chao; Liu, Yi; Liu, Jianguo; Wang, Hongtao; Zhang, Xiaojian

    2012-01-01

    Earthquakes can be devastating to built infrastructure and the natural environment, as evidenced by the March 2011, M = 9.0 earthquake, and subsequent tsunami, in Japan. As seen in the Japanese event, environmental damage caused by secondary disasters (tsunami, leakage from a nuclear reactor) can equal or exceed the impacts of the primary event. In order to develop an environmental assessment system to examine secondary disasters, a comprehensive environmental impact evaluation was conducted after the Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on 12 May 2008 in the Sichuan Province, China. This evaluation focused on several key environmental elements such as wastewater, drinking water, soil, solid waste, radiation, and ecosystem-level effects. As part of this assessment, an analysis of root causes and potential solutions was conducted for key issues such as population relocation and resettlement in temporary dwellings, recovery of environmental protection functions, industrial development strategies and production recovery. Methods for post-quake environmental assessment were developed, utilizing GIS-based techniques for spatial evaluation of primary and secondary disaster patterns. The goal of this exercise was the development of effective assessment methods that can be rapidly applied in a post-disaster situation to reduce and mitigate damage caused by secondary disasters, and facilitate the recovery of impaired environmental management structure and function. - Highlights: ► A comprehensive post-quake environmental risk evaluation system was developed. ► The research identifies potential long-term environmental risks in many aspects. ► The research analyzes potential solutions for many typical post-disaster issues. ► Effective assessment methods can be applied in a post-disaster situation to reduce damage caused by secondary disasters.

  18. Environmental risk evaluation to minimize impacts within the area affected by the Wenchuan earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du, Pengfei, E-mail: dupf@tsinghua.edu.cn; Chen, Jining, E-mail: jchen1@tsinghua.edu.cn; Chen, Chao, E-mail: chen_water@tsinghua.edu.cn; Liu, Yi, E-mail: yi.liu@tsinghua.edu.cn; Liu, Jianguo, E-mail: jgliu@tsinghua.edu.cn; Wang, Hongtao, E-mail: htwang@tsinghua.edu.cn; Zhang, Xiaojian, E-mail: zhangxj@tsinghua.edu.cn

    2012-03-01

    Earthquakes can be devastating to built infrastructure and the natural environment, as evidenced by the March 2011, M = 9.0 earthquake, and subsequent tsunami, in Japan. As seen in the Japanese event, environmental damage caused by secondary disasters (tsunami, leakage from a nuclear reactor) can equal or exceed the impacts of the primary event. In order to develop an environmental assessment system to examine secondary disasters, a comprehensive environmental impact evaluation was conducted after the Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on 12 May 2008 in the Sichuan Province, China. This evaluation focused on several key environmental elements such as wastewater, drinking water, soil, solid waste, radiation, and ecosystem-level effects. As part of this assessment, an analysis of root causes and potential solutions was conducted for key issues such as population relocation and resettlement in temporary dwellings, recovery of environmental protection functions, industrial development strategies and production recovery. Methods for post-quake environmental assessment were developed, utilizing GIS-based techniques for spatial evaluation of primary and secondary disaster patterns. The goal of this exercise was the development of effective assessment methods that can be rapidly applied in a post-disaster situation to reduce and mitigate damage caused by secondary disasters, and facilitate the recovery of impaired environmental management structure and function. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A comprehensive post-quake environmental risk evaluation system was developed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The research identifies potential long-term environmental risks in many aspects. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The research analyzes potential solutions for many typical post-disaster issues. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Effective assessment methods can be applied in a post-disaster situation to reduce damage caused by secondary disasters.

  19. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M. M J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364248149; Raben, I. M E; Ramírez, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/284852414; Spruijt, M. P N; Faaij, A. P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2 pipeline transport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures

  20. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO 2pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M.M.J.; Raben. I.M.E.; Ramírez, A.; Spruijt, M.P.N.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design,costs and routing of CO2pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2pipelinetransport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures is

  1. Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

    2010-11-01

    Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

  2. Mitigating construction safety risks using prevention through design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangolells, Marta; Casals, Miquel; Forcada, Núria; Roca, Xavier; Fuertes, Alba

    2010-04-01

    Research and practice have demonstrated that decisions made prior to work at construction sites can influence construction worker safety. However, it has also been argued that most architects and design engineers possess neither the knowledge of construction safety nor the knowledge of construction processes necessary to effectively perform Construction Hazards Prevention through Design (CHPtD). This paper introduces a quantitative methodology that supports designers by providing a way to evaluate the safety-related performance of residential construction designs using a risk analysis-based approach. The methodology compares the overall safety risk level of various construction designs and ranks the significance of the various safety risks of each of these designs. The methodology also compares the absolute importance of a particular safety risk in various construction designs. Because the methodology identifies the relevance of each safety risk at a particular site prior to the construction stage, significant risks are highlighted in advance. Thus, a range of measures for mitigating safety risks can then be implemented during on-site construction. The methodology is specially worthwhile for designers, who can compare construction techniques and systems during the design phase and determine the corresponding level of safety risk without their creative talents being restricted. By using this methodology, construction companies can improve their on-site safety performance. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Predicting Risk-Mitigating Behaviors From Indecisiveness and Trait Anxiety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Skinner, Timothy C.

    2016-01-01

    Past research suggests that indecisiveness and trait anxiety may both decrease the likelihood of performing risk-mitigating preparatory behaviors (e.g., preparing for natural hazards) and suggests two cognitive processes (perceived control and worrying) as potential mediators. However, no single...... control over wildfire-related outcomes. Trait anxiety did not uniquely predict preparedness or perceived control, but it did uniquely predict worry, with higher trait anxiety predicting more worrying. Also, worry trended toward uniquely predicting preparedness, albeit in an unpredicted positive direction...

  4. Innovations in optimizing mitigation and pipeline risk management for natural gas and hazardous liquid systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gloven, Michael P; Hendren, Elaine S; Zeller, Sherri A; Ramirez, Pete V [Bass-Trigon (United States)

    2003-07-01

    Pipeline risk management has been stimulated by pipeline ruptures throughout the world. This paper explores risk management and mitigation strategies for minimizing consequences from pipeline releases, and optimizing financial resources in response or in prevention of these events. More specifically, it examines private sector innovations which optimize mitigation activities in combination with public sector programs such as regulations and standards (i.e., ASME B31.S, API 1160). The mitigation of risk involves the implementation of measures to reduce the frequency of failure, the severity of consequences, or both these attributes of risk. A wide variety of risk mitigation measures are available to pipeline operators. Given the diversity of mitigation measures available, this paper proposes a framework that can assist operating companies in selecting risk mitigation strategies based on risk results, mitigation costs and benefits. (author)

  5. Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

  6. Health care worker decompression sickness: incidence, risk and mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Richard

    2017-01-01

    Inadvertent exposure to radiation, chemical agents and biological factors are well recognized hazards associated with the health care delivery system. Less well appreciated yet no less harmful is risk of decompression sickness in those who accompany patients as inside attendants (IAs) during provision of hyperbaric oxygen therapy. Unlike the above hazards where avoidance is practiced, IA exposure to decompression sickness risk is unavoidable. While overall incidence is low, when calculated as number of cases over number of exposures or potential for a case during any given exposure, employee cumulative risk, defined here as number of cases over number of IAs, or risk that an IA may suffer a case, is not. Commonly, this unique occupational environmental injury responds favorably to therapeutic recompression and a period of recuperation. There are, however, permanent and career-ending consequences, and at least two nurses have succumbed to their decompression insults. The intent of this paper is to heighten awareness of hyperbaric attendant decompression sickness. It will serve as a review of reported cases and reconcile incidence against largely ignored individual worker risk. Mitigation strategies are summarized and an approach to more precisely identify risk factors that might prompt development of consensus screening standards is proposed. Copyright© Undersea and Hyperbaric Medical Society.

  7. Risk Assessment of Arsenic Mitigation Options in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M. Feroze; Shamsuddin, Abu Jafar; Mahmud, Shamsul Gafur; Deere, Daniel

    2006-01-01

    The provision of alternative water sources is the principal arsenic mitigation strategy in Bangladesh, but can lead to risk substitution. A study of arsenic mitigation options was undertaken to assess water quality and sanitary condition and to estimate the burden of disease associated with each technology in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Dugwells and pond-sand filters showed heavy microbial contamination in both dry and monsoon seasons, and the estimated burden of disease was high. Rainwater was of good quality in the monsoon but deteriorated in the dry season. Deep tubewells showed microbial contamination in the monsoon but not in the dry season and was the only technology to approach the World Health Organization's reference level of risk of 10-6 DALYs. A few dugwells and one pond-sand filter showed arsenic in excess of 50 μg/L. The findings suggest that deep tubewells and rainwater harvesting provide safer water than dugwells and pond-sand filters and should be the preferred options. PMID:17366776

  8. Mitigation of Volcanic Risk: The COSMO-SkyMed Contribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacco, Patrizia; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Battagliere, Maria Libera; Coletta, Alessandro

    2015-05-01

    The Italian Space Agency (ASI) promotes Earth Observation (EO) applications related to themes such as the prediction, monitoring, management and mitigation of natural and anthropogenic hazards. The approach generally followed is the development and demonstration of prototype services, using currently available data from space missions, in particular the COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean basin observation) mission, which represents the largest Italian investment in Space System for EO and thanks to which Italy plays a key role worldwide. Projects funded by ASI provide the convergence of various national industry expertise, research and institutional reference users. In this context a significant example is represented by the ASI Pilot Projects, recently concluded, dealing with various thematic, such as volcanoes. In this paper a special focus will be addressed to the volcanic risk management and the contribution provided in this field by COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation during the last years. A comprehensive overview of the various national and international projects using COSMO-SkyMed data for the volcanic risk mitigation will be given, highlighting the Italian contribution provided worldwide in this operational framework.

  9. Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

    2014-07-01

    The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

  10. Reservoir souring: it is all about risk mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuijvenhoven, Cor [Shell (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    The presence of H2S in produced fluid can be due to various sources, among which are heat/rock interaction and leaks from other reservoirs. This paper discusses the reasons, risk assessment and tools for mitigating reservoir souring. Uncontrolled microorganism activity can cause a sweet reservoir (without H2S) to become sour (production of H2S). The development of bacteria is one of the main causes of reservoir souring in unconventional gas fields. It is difficult to predict souring in seawater due to produced water re-injection (PWRI). Risk assessment and modeling techniques for reservoir souring are discussed. Some of the factors controlling H2S production include injection location, presence of scavenging minerals and biogenic souring. Mitigation methods such as biocide treatment of injection water, sulphate removal from seawater, microbial monitoring techniques such as the molecular microbiology method (MMM), and enumeration by serial dilution are explained. In summary, it can be concluded that reservoir souring is a long-term problem and should be assessed at the beginning of operations.

  11. Data base pertinent to earthquake design basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, R.D.

    1988-01-01

    Mitigation of earthquake risk from impending strong earthquakes is possible provided the hazard can be assessed, and translated into appropriate design inputs. This requires defining the seismic risk problem, isolating the risk factors and quantifying risk in terms of physical parameters, which are suitable for application in design. Like all other geological phenomena, past earthquakes hold the key to the understanding of future ones. Quantificatio n of seismic risk at a site calls for investigating the earthquake aspects of the site region and building a data base. The scope of such investigations is il lustrated in Figure 1 and 2. A more detailed definition of the earthquake problem in engineering design is given elsewhere (Sharma, 1987). The present document discusses the earthquake data base, which is required to support a seismic risk evaluation programme in the context of the existing state of the art. (author). 8 tables, 10 figs., 54 refs

  12. Earthquake disaster mitigation of Lembang Fault West Java with electromagnetic method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widodo

    2015-01-01

    The Lembang fault is located around eight kilometers from Bandung City, West Java, Indonesia. The existence of this fault runs through densely populated settlement and tourism area. It is an active fault structure with increasing seismic activity where the 28 August 2011 earthquake occurred. The seismic response at the site is strongly influenced by local geological conditions. The ambient noise measurements from the western part of this fault give strong implication for a complex 3-D tectonic setting. Hence, near surface Electromagnetic (EM) measurements are carried out to understand the location of the local active fault of the research area. Hence, near surface EM measurements are carried out to understand the location of the local active fault and the top of the basement structure of the research area. The Transientelectromagnetic (TEM) measurements are carried out along three profiles, which include 35 TEM soundings. The results indicate that TEM data give detailed conductivity distribution of fault structure in the study area

  13. Earthquake disaster mitigation of Lembang Fault West Java with electromagnetic method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Widodo, E-mail: widodo@gf.itb.ac.id [Geophysical Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, 40132, Bandung (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    The Lembang fault is located around eight kilometers from Bandung City, West Java, Indonesia. The existence of this fault runs through densely populated settlement and tourism area. It is an active fault structure with increasing seismic activity where the 28 August 2011 earthquake occurred. The seismic response at the site is strongly influenced by local geological conditions. The ambient noise measurements from the western part of this fault give strong implication for a complex 3-D tectonic setting. Hence, near surface Electromagnetic (EM) measurements are carried out to understand the location of the local active fault of the research area. Hence, near surface EM measurements are carried out to understand the location of the local active fault and the top of the basement structure of the research area. The Transientelectromagnetic (TEM) measurements are carried out along three profiles, which include 35 TEM soundings. The results indicate that TEM data give detailed conductivity distribution of fault structure in the study area.

  14. The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade E. Martin; Ingrid M. Martin; Brian Kent

    2009-01-01

    An important policy question receiving considerable attention concerns the risk perception-risk mitigation process that guides how individuals choose to address natural hazard risks. This question is considered in the context of wildfire. We analyze the factors that influence risk reduction behaviors by homeowners living in the wildland-urban interface. The factors...

  15. Mycophenolate fetal toxicity and risk evaluation and mitigation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, M; Rostas, S; Gabardi, S

    2013-06-01

    The mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations are one of the most commonly used immunosuppressants in the United States. However, these agents carry a black box warning regarding their use during pregnancy due to an association with increased risk of miscarriage and congenital defects. To ensure that the benefits of MPA outweigh the risks, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) required all manufacturers of MPA products to propose risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS). Four years after initially calling for proposals, the FDA approved a single shared REMS system in September 2012. The elements of the MPA REMS include a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guide, which was previously FDA-approved in 2008, should continue to be distributed to patients, and the ETASU requires physicians to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the "Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgement Form." A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry is available, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA products among patients and possibly practitioners. © Copyright 2013 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  16. Building Inventory Database on the Urban Scale Using GIS for Earthquake Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, O.; Avdan, U.; Guney, Y.; Helvaci, C.

    2016-12-01

    The majority of the existing buildings are not safe against earthquakes in most of the developing countries. Before a devastating earthquake, existing buildings need to be assessed and the vulnerable ones must be determined. Determining the seismic performance of existing buildings which is usually made with collecting the attributes of existing buildings, making the analysis and the necessary queries, and producing the result maps is very hard and complicated procedure that can be simplified with Geographic Information System (GIS). The aim of this study is to produce a building inventory database using GIS for assessing the earthquake risk of existing buildings. In this paper, a building inventory database for 310 buildings, located in Eskisehir, Turkey, was produced in order to assess the earthquake risk of the buildings. The results from this study show that 26% of the buildings have high earthquake risk, 33% of the buildings have medium earthquake risk and the 41% of the buildings have low earthquake risk. The produced building inventory database can be very useful especially for governments in dealing with the problem of determining seismically vulnerable buildings in the large existing building stocks. With the help of this kind of methods, determination of the buildings, which may collapse and cause life and property loss during a possible future earthquake, will be very quick, cheap and reliable.

  17. Mitigating Thermal Runaway Risk in Lithium Ion Batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darcy, Eric; Jeevarajan, Judy; Russell, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    The JSC/NESC team has successfully demonstrated Thermal Runaway (TR) risk reduction in a lithium ion battery for human space flight by developing and implementing verifiable design features which interrupt energy transfer between adjacent electrochemical cells. Conventional lithium ion (li-Ion) batteries can fail catastrophically as a result of a single cell going into thermal runaway. Thermal runaway results when an internal component fails to separate electrode materials leading to localized heating and complete combustion of the lithium ion cell. Previously, the greatest control to minimize the probability of cell failure was individual cell screening. Combining thermal runaway propagation mitigation design features with a comprehensive screening program reduces both the probability, and the severity, of a single cell failure.

  18. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS): educating the prescriber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Susan C; Peterson, Janet; Yektashenas, Behin

    2012-02-01

    The US FDA Amendments Act of 2007 was signed into law on 27 September 2007. A provision of this law granted the FDA new powers to enhance drug safety by requiring the pharmaceutical industry to develop Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). REMS are deemed necessary when a question exists as to whether the benefits of a drug outweigh its risks. REMS constitute a safety plan with several potential components, including a medication guide, a communication plan, elements to ensure safe use and an implementation system to help guide the prescribers, pharmacists and patients. This applies to existing drugs on the market, new drug applications (NDAs), abbreviated NDAs (generics) and biologics licence applications. REMS represent an 'upgrade' from previously required risk minimization action plans, based on the strengthening of FDA powers of authority and enforceability to incur monetary penalties against individuals representing the pharmaceutical industry who fail to comply. For illustrative purposes, we chose the drug romiplostim (Nplate®) to present an REMS, as all components were utilized to help assuage risks associated with the drug. Romiplostim is an FDA-approved drug used to treat thrombocytopenia in patients with chronic immune (idiopathic) thrombocytopenic purpura that has a significant adverse safety profile based on the risk of changes in bone marrow reticulin formation and bone marrow fibroses, and other associated risks. This review of current REMS policy is intended to provide the prescriber with a better understanding of current modalities in FDA-mandated drug safety programmes, which will impact day-to-day healthcare provider practices.

  19. Women, mercury and artisanal gold mining : Risk communication and mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinton, J. J.; Veiga, M. M.; Beinhoff, C.

    2003-05-01

    Artisanal miners employ rudimentary techniques for minéral extraction and often operate under hazardous, labour intensive, highly disorganized and illegal conditions. Gold is the main mineral extracted by artisanal miners, and the ecological and human health impacts resulting from mercury (Hg) use in gold extraction warrant special consideration. More than 30% of world's 13 million artisanal miners are women and, as they are often perceived to be less suited for labour intensive mining methods, the majority of women work in the processing aspect of artisanal mining, including amalgamation with Hg. As women are also predominantly responsible for food preparation, they are in an excellent position to respond to health risks associated with consumption of Hg-contaminated foods in impacted areas. In addition to their influence on consumption habits, women in artisanal mining communities may be in a position to effect positive change with respect to the technologies employed. Thus, gender sensitive approaches are necessary to reduce exposure risks to women and their families, promote clean technologies and support the development of stronger, healthier artisanal mining communities. This paper describes the roles of women in artisanal gold mining, highlights their importance in reducing the Hg exposure in these communities, and provides insight into how risks from Hg pollution can effectively be communicated and mitigated.

  20. Assessment of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies in Oncology: Summary of the Oncology Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frame, James N.; Jacobson, Joseph O.; Vogel, Wendy H.; Griffith, Niesha; Wariabharaj, Darshan; Garg, Rekha; Zon, Robin; Stephens, Cyntha L.; Bialecki, Alison M.; Bruinooge, Suanna S.; Allen, Steven L.

    2013-01-01

    To address oncology community stakeholder concerns regarding implementation of the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) program, ASCO sponsored a workshop to gather REMS experiences from representatives of professional societies, patient organizations, pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Stakeholder presentations and topical panel discussions addressed REMS program development, implementation processes, and practice experiences, as well as oncology drug safety processes. A draft REMS decision tool prepared by the ASCO REMS Steering Committee was presented for group discussion with facilitated, goal-oriented feedback. The workshop identified several unintended consequences resulting from current oncology REMS: (1) the release of personal health information to drug sponsors as a condition for gaining access to a needed drug; (2) risk information that is not tailored—and therefore not accessible—to all literacy levels; (3) exclusive focus on drug risk, thereby affecting patient-provider treatment discussion; (4) REMS elements that do not consider existing, widely practiced oncology safety standards, professional training, and experience; and (5) administrative burdens that divert the health care team from direct patient care activities and, in some cases, could limit patient access to important therapies. Increased provider and professional society participation should form the basis of ongoing and future REMS standardization discussions with the FDA to work toward overall improvement of risk communication. PMID:23814522

  1. Change of Japanese risk perception after Tohoku earthquake March 11, 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Reiko

    2011-01-01

    The present study reports change of Japanese risk perception based on the results of national surveys carried out in 2010 and 2011. Major earthquake and nuclear power plant risk items were perceived much more serious, while other risks such as global warming, illicit drugs, terrorism were perceiver less serious, after Tohoku earthquake. Anxiety about radiological material was differently according to the distance from the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant. (author)

  2. Risk assessment study of fire following earthquake: a case study of petrochemical enterprises in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Wang, Y.; Chen, H.; Lin, L.

    2013-04-01

    After an earthquake, the fire risk of petrochemistry enterprises is higher than that of other enterprises as it involves production processes with inflammable and explosive characteristics. Using Chinese petrochemical enterprises as the research object, this paper uses a literature review and case summaries to study, amongst others, the classification of petrochemical enterprises, the proportion of daily fires, and fire loss ratio. This paper builds a fire following earthquake risk assessment model of petrochemical enterprises based on a previous earthquake fire hazard model, and the earthquake loss prediction assessment method, calculates the expected loss of the fire following earthquake in various counties and draws a risk map. Moreover, this research identifies high-risk areas, concentrating on the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, and Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Differences in enterprise type produce different levels and distribution of petrochemical enterprises earthquake fire risk. Furthermore, areas at high risk of post-earthquake fires and with low levels of seismic fortification require extra attention to ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place.

  3. Risk assessment study of fire following an earthquake: a case study of petrochemical enterprises in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Wang, Y.; Chen, H.; Lin, L.

    2014-04-01

    After an earthquake, the fire risk of petrochemical enterprises is higher than that of other enterprises as it involves production processes with inflammable and explosive characteristics. Using Chinese petrochemical enterprises as the research object, this paper uses a literature review and case summaries to study, amongst others, the classification of petrochemical enterprises, the proportion of daily fires, and fire loss ratio. This paper builds a fire following an earthquake risk assessment model of petrochemical enterprises based on a previous earthquake fire hazard model, and the earthquake loss prediction assessment method, calculates the expected loss of the fire following an earthquake in various counties and draws a risk map. Moreover, this research identifies high-risk areas, concentrating on the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, and Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Differences in enterprise type produce different levels and distribution of petrochemical enterprise earthquake fire risk. Furthermore, areas at high risk of post-earthquake fires and with low levels of seismic fortification require extra attention to ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place.

  4. Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven

    2011-07-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area

  5. Cost control and risk mitigation of major projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caddy, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    In this paper and presentation, the four major types of estimates will be discussed, i.e., capacity factored, equipment factored, semi-detailed and detailed. Key relationships between particular portions of estimates will be discussed such as the relationship between direct field labor and indirect field costs. Having set the basis for developing a project's cost through estimating, the paper will then list and discuss the fifteen key steps which must be followed to control the costs of a project. Next, the subject of allowances and contingency will be discussed and defined and the differences between the two will be highlighted. Having established exactly what contingency is, the subject of risk analysis through RANGE estimating will be discussed. The methods used to establish a precise contingency and probability of an over/under run will be discussed. Finally, the paper will discuss the methods by which a project manager, owner or contractor can mitigate risks; that is to eliminate, transfer or minimize their effect

  6. Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment as a tool to improve safety and explanatory adequacy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoi, Tatsuya

    2015-01-01

    This paper explains the concept of probabilistic earthquake risk assessment, mainly from the viewpoint as a tool to improve safety and explanatory adequacy. The definition of risk is the expected value of undesirable effect in an engineering meaning that is likely to occur in the future, and it is defined in risk management as the triplet of scenario (what can happen), frequency, and impact. As for the earthquake risk assessment of a nuclear power plant, the fragility of structure / system / component (SSC) against earthquake (so-called earthquake fragility) is assessed, and by combining with the earthquake hazard that has been separately obtained, the occurrence frequency and impact of the accident are obtained. From the view of the authors, earthquake risk assessment is for the purpose of decision-making, and is not intended to calculate the probability in a scientifically rigorous manner. For ensuring the quality of risk assessment, the table of 'Expert utilization standards for the evaluation of epistemological uncertainty' is used. Sole quantitative risk assessment is not necessarily sufficient for risk management. It would be important to find how to build the 'framework for comprehensive decision-making.' (A.O.)

  7. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

  8. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, John W.

    2011-01-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

  9. Psychological Vulnerability and Earthquake Risk Perception in Bucharest/Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romeo Cretu, Zeno; Armas, Iuliana; Stanciugelu, Irina

    2010-05-01

    The importance of studying the relationship with the natural hazard events from a psycho-social perspective is fundamental by the experience with past disasters as much as by the research in the field that proved that the people's psychologic structures may constitute a starting point for risk reduction. People's psycho-behavioural patterns contain conscious or unconscious references to the environmental risk, thus creating certain adjustment strategies and mechanisms, with a certain degree of psychological vulnerability. In modern man's case, the high level of awareness in front of natural dangers, doubled by the perception of the environment's unsafety, experienced as a lack of control, brings to attention nowadays the problematic of the analysis of natural risk perception, as a main factor in the adjustment of human communities' capacity of adapting to the natural environment's dynamics. The major objective of this present work is, based on the development of an efficient evaluation methodology, to identify specific relational patterns to seismic risk in Bucharest, function the characteristics of the urban environment, the social, economical and psychological vulnerability, with results that can be applied for disaster management. For explaining human reactions and the way in which they perceive and evaluate the psychological resources, on a daily basis, but also in risk situations (earthquakes), a multi-modal questionnaire was conceived through qualitative methods (a focus group, along with experts from the Public and Administrative Sciences National School, Risk Communication Center). The questionnaire was structured on a 49 items sequence, in which were included different type of questions (with single or multiple answers, open questions etc), and also questions using different scaling methods. The items caught cognitive elements (expectations, anticipations and negative or positive judgments regarding risk element), affective (feelings) and behavioral

  10. Risk Mitigation of Emerging Zoonoses: Hendra Virus and Non-Vaccinating Horse Owners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manyweathers, J; Field, H; Jordan, D; Longnecker, N; Agho, K; Smith, C; Taylor, M

    2017-12-01

    Hendra virus was identified in horses and humans in 1994, in Queensland, Australia. Flying foxes are the natural host. Horses are thought to acquire infection by direct or indirect contact with infected flying fox urine. Humans are infected from close contact with infected horses. To reduce risk of infection in horses and humans, Australian horse owners are encouraged to vaccinate horses against the virus and adopt property risk mitigation practices that focus on reducing flying fox horse contact and contamination of horses' environment with flying fox bodily fluids. This study investigates uptake of four Hendra virus risk mitigation practices in a sample of non- and partially vaccinating horse owners living close to previous Hendra virus cases. Protection motivation theory was used to develop a conceptual model to investigate risk perception and coping factors associated with uptake of risk mitigation practices. An online survey was administered via Facebook pages of veterinary clinics close to previous Hendra virus cases. Factors associated with uptake of risk mitigation practices were investigated using univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression. Belief that a risk mitigation practice would be effective in reducing Hendra virus risk was significantly associated with the uptake of that practice. Issues around the practicality of implementing risk mitigation practices were found to be the greatest barrier to uptake. Factors that relate to risk immediacy, such as nearby infection, were identified as more likely to trigger uptake of risk mitigation practices. The role of veterinarians in supporting Hendra risk mitigation was identified as more influential than that of respected others or friends. Findings from this study are being used to assist stakeholders in Australia responsible for promotion of risk mitigation practice in identifying additional pathways and reliable influencing factors that could be utilized for engaging and communicating with horse

  11. The mitigation of volcanic risk as opportunity for an ecological and resilient city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulio Zuccaro

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper outlines some of the results of SPeeD project, funded by EU, Campania Region and National Department of Civil Protection. The research is aimed at the definition of impact scenarios resulting from the eruption of Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei and the development of strategies to reduce the damage on the built environment. The issues related to the identification of technical solutions for mitigating the impact on buildings and infrastructure, to the socio-economic benefits arising from widespread interventions on the territory, as well as to the drafting of preparatory guidelines for the implementation of regional regulations and local building codes for volcanic risk-prone areas, have been developed at PLINIVS Study Centre of University of Naples Federico II. The methodological approach for the definition of appropriate technologies aimed at reducing the impact in relation to eruptive phenomena and construction types in the area is based on PLINIVS Volcanic Impact Simulation Model, a unique tool to define impact scenarios consequent to a volcanic eruption in the region, able to evaluate the cumulative effects given by the action of volcanic phenomena, such as earthquake, ash fall, pyroclastic flows and landslides. The study aims to demonstrate how the application of appropriate technologies for retrofit interventions or new constructions, aimed at reducing the vulnerability of building components, represents at the same time an opportunity to encourage a diffuse redevelopment of the territory driven by energy and environmental efficiency issues.

  12. The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes: Cascading Geological Hazards and Compounding Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katsuichiro Goda

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A sequence of two strike-slip earthquakes occurred on 14 and 16 April 2016 in the intraplate region of Kyushu Island, Japan, apart from subduction zones, and caused significant damage and disruption to the Kumamoto region. The analyses of regional seismic catalog and available strong motion recordings reveal striking characteristics of the events, such as migrating seismicity, earthquake surface rupture, and major foreshock-mainshock earthquake sequences. To gain valuable lessons from the events, a UK Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT was dispatched to Kumamoto, and earthquake damage surveys were conducted to relate observed earthquake characteristics to building and infrastructure damage caused by the earthquakes. The lessons learnt from the reconnaissance mission have important implications on current seismic design practice regarding the required seismic resistance of structures under multiple shocks and the seismic design of infrastructure subject to large ground deformation. The observations also highlight the consequences of cascading geological hazards on community resilience. To share the gathered damage data widely, geo-tagged photos are organized using Google Earth and the kmz file is made publicly available.

  13. Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART in earthquake risk assessment: a case study of Delhi region, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishant Sinha

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This article is aimed at earthquake hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART, which is based on Saaty's multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique. The three specific study sites of Delhi were chosen for research as it corresponds to a typical patch of the urban environs, completely engrossed with residential, commercial and industrial units. The earthquake hazard affecting components are established in the form of geographic information system data-set layers including seismic zone, peak ground acceleration (PGA, soil characteristics, liquefaction potential, geological characteristics, land use, proximity to fault and epicentre. The physical vulnerability layers comprising building information, namely number of stories, year-built range, area, occupancy and construction type, derived from remote sensing imagery, were only considered for the current research. SMART was developed for earthquake risk assessment, and weights were derived both at component and its element level. Based on weighted overlay techniques, the earthquake hazard and vulnerability layers were created from which the risk maps were derived through multiplicative analysis. The developed risk maps may prove useful in decision-making process and formulating risk mitigation measures.

  14. Risk Mitigation Testing with the BepiColombo MPO SADA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemann, J.; Heinrich, B.; Skulicz, A.; Madsen, M.; Weisenstein, W.; Modugno, F.; Althaus, F.; Panhofer, T.; Osterseher, G.

    2013-09-01

    A Solar Array (SA) Drive Assembly (SADA) for the BepiColombo mission is being developed and qualified at RUAG Space Zürich (RSSZ). The system is consisting of the Solar Array Drive Mechanism (SADM) and the Solar Array Drive Electronics (SADE) which is subcontracted to RUAG Space Austria (RSA).This paper deals with the risk mitigation activities and the lesson learnt from this development. In specific following topics substantiated by bread board (BB) test results will be addressed in detail:Slipring Bread Board Test: Verification of lifetime and electrical performance of carbon brush technology Potentiometer BB Tests: Focus on lifetime verification (> 650000 revolution) and accuracy requirement SADM EM BB Test: Subcomponent (front-bearing and gearbox) characterization; complete test campaign equivalent to QM test.EM SADM/ SADE Combined Test: Verification of combined performance (accuracy, torque margin) and micro-vibration testing of SADA systemSADE Bread Board Test: Parameter optimization; Test campaign equivalent to QM testThe main improvements identified in frame of BB testing and already implemented in the SADM EM/QM and SADE EQM are:• Improved preload device for gearbox• Improved motor ball-bearing assembly• Position sensor improvements• Calibration process for potentiometer• SADE motor controller optimization toachieve required running smoothness• Overall improvement of test equipment.

  15. Earth sciences, GIS and geomatics for natural hazards assessment and risks mitigation: a civil protection perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perotti, Luigi; Conte, Riccardo; Lanfranco, Massimo; Perrone, Gianluigi; Giardino, Marco; Ratto, Sara

    2010-05-01

    Geo-information and remote sensing are proper tools to enhance functional strategies for increasing awareness on natural hazards and risks and for supporting research and operational activities devoted to disaster reduction. An improved Earth Sciences knowledge coupled with Geomatics advanced technologies has been developed by the joint research group and applied by the ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action) centre, within its partnership with the UN World Food Programme (WFP) with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related disasters. By cooperating with local and regional authorities (Municipalities, Centro Funzionale of the Aosta Valley, Civil Protection Agency of Regione Piemonte), data on natural hazards and risks have been collected, compared to national and global data, then interpreted for helping communities and civil protection agencies of sensitive mountain regions to make strategic choices and decisions to better mitigation and adaption measures. To enhance the application of GIS and Remote-sensing technologies for geothematic mapping of geological and geomorphological risks of mountain territories of Europe and Developing Countries, research activities led to the collection and evaluation of data from scientific literature and historical technical archives, for the definition of predisposing/triggering factors and evolutionary processes of natural instability phenomena (landslides, floods, storms, …) and for the design and implementation of early-warning and early-impact systems. Geodatabases, Remote Sensing and Mobile-GIS applications were developed to perform analysis of : 1) large climate-related disaster (Hurricane Mitch, Central America), by the application of remote sensing techniques, either for early warning or mitigation measures at the national and international scale; 2) distribution of slope instabilities at the regional scale (Aosta

  16. Proactive vs. reactive learning on buildings response and earthquake risks, in schools of Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela DOBRE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available During the last 20 years, many specific activities of earthquake education and preparedness were initiated and supported in Romania by drafting materials for citizens, students, professors etc. (Georgescu et al., 2004, 2006. The education, training and information on earthquake disaster potential are important factors to mitigate the earthquake effects. Such activities, however, need time to be developed and may take different forms of presentation in order to capture the attention, to increase interest, to develop skills and attitudes in order to induce a proper behavior towards safety preparedness. It shall also be based on the accumulation of concerns and knowledge, which are, in principle, a consequence of the motivation, but which depend on the methods applied and actions taken for efficient earthquake preparedness, assessed and updated following actual earthquakes (Masuda, Midorikawa, Miki and Ohmachi, 1988. We are now at a crossroad and the proactive attitude and behavior (anticipative and participative needs to be extended in learning, within institutional framework, but correlated with the usual targets of schools and teenagers proactive issue (ROEDUSEIS-NET; Page and Page, 2003, by encouraging students in activities closer to earthquake engineering.

  17. Applications of research from the U.S. Geological Survey program, assessment of regional earthquake hazards and risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gori, Paula L.

    1993-01-01

    engineering studies. Translated earthquake hazard maps have also been developed to identify areas that are particularly vulnerable to various causes of damage such as ground shaking, surface rupturing, and liquefaction. The implementation of earthquake hazard reduction plans are now under way in various communities in Utah. The results of a survey presented in this paper indicate that technical public officials (planners and building officials) have an understanding of the earthquake hazards and how to mitigate the risks. Although the survey shows that the general public has a slightly lower concern about the potential for economic losses, they recognize the potential problems and can support a number of earthquake mitigation measures. The study suggests that many community groups along the Wasatch Front, including volunteer groups, business groups, and elected and appointed officials, are ready for action-oriented educational programs. These programs could lead to a significant reduction in the risks associated with earthquake hazards. A DATA BASE DESIGNED FOR URBAN SEISMIC HAZARDS STUDIES: A computerized data base has been designed for use in urban seismic hazards studies conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. The design includes file structures for 16 linked data sets, which contain geological, geophysical, and seismological data used in preparing relative ground response maps of large urban areas. The data base is organized along relational data base principles. A prototype urban hazards data base has been created for evaluation in two urban areas currently under investigation: the Wasatch Front region of Utah and the Puget Sound area of Washington. The initial implementation of the urban hazards data base was accomplished on a microcomputer using dBASE III Plus software and transferred to minicomputers and a work station. A MAPPING OF GROUND-SHAKING INTENSITIES FOR SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH: This paper documents the development of maps showing a

  18. New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

    2011-12-01

    Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

  19. The risk communication using the special website of the society of risk analysis for the Great East Japan Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsubokawa, Hiroaki; Nagasaka, Toshinari; Sunaga, Yohei; Lee, Taiyoung; Taguchi, Hitoshi; Usuda, Yuichiro

    2011-01-01

    The Society for Risk Analysis Japan built the special website that reply to the people who are concerning the risk related to the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011. Although, there were many risk communication activities between the specialists of the risk research and citizens on the website, there are some significant problems for the risk communication using the website. This report summarizes the result of our activity. (author)

  20. Developing Effective Earthquake Risk Reduction Strategies: The Potential Role of Academic Institutions in Lebanon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baytiyeh, Hoda

    2015-01-01

    Lebanon faces the risk of powerful earthquakes with potentially devastating effects. However, the Lebanese people in general have not yet recognized this risk, as current educational programs and government officials have failed to inform them about it. This article discusses the essential role that Lebanese institutions of higher education should…

  1. Suicide risk among young children after the Great East Japan Earthquake: A follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiwara, Takeo; Yagi, Junko; Homma, Hiroaki; Mashiko, Hirobumi; Nagao, Keizo; Okuyama, Makiko

    2017-07-01

    On 11 March 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent tsunami hit East Japan. We aim to investigate the impact of trauma experiences related to the earthquake on suicide risk among young children, stratified by child sex. Participants at baseline were children who were exposed to the 2011 disaster at preschool age (affected area, n=198; unaffected area, n=82, total n=280). From July 2013 to May 2014, suicide risk was assessed using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview for Children and Adolescents (MINI-KID) in a follow-up interview conducted by a child psychiatrist or psychologist (N=210, follow-up rate: 75%). Among young girls in the affected area, 12 out of 65 (18.5%) showed suicidal ideation, which is significantly higher than girls in the unaffected area (4.7%, p for chi-square=0.036). In the multivariate model adjusted for potential confounders and mediators, the odds ratio for 4 or more trauma experiences related to the earthquake was 5.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-39.6, p=0.076) compared to no trauma experience related to the earthquake. Among young boys, trauma exposure was not associated with suicidal ideation. Our findings showed that young girls who experienced earthquake-related trauma at preschool age had a higher suicidal ideation 3 years after the earthquake. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  2. Risk factors of suicidal ideation among adolescents after Wenchuan earthquake in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ran, Mao-Sheng; Zhang, Zhen; Fan, Mei; Li, Rong-Hui; Li, Yuan-Hao; Ou, Guo Jing; Jiang, Zhe; Tong, Yu-Zhen; Fang, Ding-Zhi

    2015-02-01

    Suicidal ideation is a common phenomenon in survivors after disaster event. To identify the change of suicidal ideation, and to test hypotheses concerning the suicidal ideation, depression and PTSD symptoms among adolescent survivors after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. The suicidal ideation among high school students at 6, 12 and 18 months after the Wenchuan earthquake were investigated. Subjects included 737 student survivors in an affected high school. The PTSD Checklist-Civilian Version (PCL-C) and the Chinese Beck Depression Inventory (C-BDI) were used to measure the symptoms of PTSD and depression. The rates of suicidal ideation among the adolescent survivors at 6-, 12- and 18-month after the earthquake were 35.6%, 35.6% and 30.7% respectively. Depression symptoms in the 18-month follow-up, suicidal ideations at 6 and 12 months after the earthquake were the independent risk factors of suicidal ideation in the 18-month follow-up. Depression symptoms were the strongest predictor of suicidal ideation after earthquake. An increased rate of suicidal ideation after the earthquake may be mainly due to depression but not to PTSD symptoms. The disaster-related psychological sequelae and the risk factors of suicidal ideation, especially depression symptoms, should be considered in the mental health services and suicide prevention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  4. Collapse risk of buildings in the Pacific Northwest region due to subduction earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghunandan, Meera; Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    Subduction earthquakes similar to the 2011 Japan and 2010 Chile events will occur in the future in the Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest. In this paper, nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out on 24 buildings designed according to outdated and modern building codes for the cities of Seattle, Washington, and Portland, Oregon. The results indicate that the median collapse capacity of the ductile (post-1970) buildings is approximately 40% less when subjected to ground motions from subduction, as compared to crustal earthquakes. Buildings are more susceptible to earthquake-induced collapse when shaken by subduction records (as compared to crustal records of the same intensity) because the subduction motions tend to be longer in duration due to their larger magnitude and the greater source-to-site distance. As a result, subduction earthquakes are shown to contribute to the majority of the collapse risk of the buildings analyzed.

  5. Communicating Earthquake Preparedness: The Influence of Induced Mood, Perceived Risk, and Gain or Loss Frames on Homeowners' Attitudes Toward General Precautionary Measures for Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marti, Michèle; Stauffacher, Michael; Matthes, Jörg; Wiemer, Stefan

    2018-04-01

    Despite global efforts to reduce seismic risk, actual preparedness levels remain universally low. Although earthquake-resistant building design is the most efficient way to decrease potential losses, its application is not a legal requirement across all earthquake-prone countries and even if, often not strictly enforced. Risk communication encouraging homeowners to take precautionary measures is therefore an important means to enhance a country's earthquake resilience. Our study illustrates that specific interactions of mood, perceived risk, and frame type significantly affect homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The interdependencies of the variables mood, risk information, and frame type were tested in an experimental 2 × 2 × 2 design (N = 156). Only in combination and not on their own, these variables effectively influence attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. The control variables gender, "trait anxiety" index, and alteration of perceived risk adjust the effect. Overall, the group with the strongest attitudes toward general precautionary actions for earthquakes are homeowners with induced negative mood who process high-risk information and gain-framed messages. However, the conditions comprising induced negative mood, low-risk information and loss-frame and induced positive mood, low-risk information and gain-framed messages both also significantly influence homeowners' attitudes toward general precautionary measures for earthquakes. These results mostly confirm previous findings in the field of health communication. For practitioners, our study emphasizes that carefully compiled communication measures are a powerful means to encourage precautionary attitudes among homeowners, especially for those with an elevated perceived risk. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Strategies for Mitigation of Flood Risk in the Niger Delta, Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Strategies for Mitigation of Flood Risk in the Niger Delta, Nigeria. ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management ... a false sense of security to flood plain dwellers and thereby encouraging investments in flood prone areas.

  7. Japanese-South African collaboration to mitigate seismic risks in deep gold mines

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ogasawara, H

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Japanese-South African collaborative project entitled "Observational study to mitigate seismic risks in mines". The project will build on previous studies carried out by Japanese seismologists in South African mines, and will develop human and instrumental...

  8. Using the Steel Vessel Material-Cost Index to Mitigate Shipbuilder Risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Keating, Edward G; Murphy, Robert; Schank, John F; Birkler, John

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes how the US Navy structures fixed-price and fixed-price, incentive-fee shipbuilding contracts and how labor- and material-cost indexes can mitigate shipbuilder risk in either type of contract...

  9. Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NASA Academy of Program/Project & Engineering Leadership (APPEL) is excited to announce the public release of Orbital Debris Management and Risk Mitigation,...

  10. Change of risk information disclosure in annual report. Before and after earthquake disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ueno, Takefumi

    2011-01-01

    This research examines how risk information disclosure is changing in annual report before and after East Japan Great Earthquake Disaster. Company voluntary disclose risk information in annual report. Manager can decide a style and items of risk information. This paper explores risk information disclosures of Tokyo Electric Power Company, Chubu Power Electric Company, Kansai Electric Power Company and Toyota Motor Corporation. The managers except Tokyo Electric Company are likely to disclose own catastrophe risk before the disaster. However, they do not try to reduce their risk. Corporations' risk information do not link with own risk management. (author)

  11. Rural Households’ Livelihood Capital, Risk Perception, and Willingness to Purchase Earthquake Disaster Insurance: Evidence from Southwestern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dingde Xu

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake disaster insurance can effectively reduce the impact of earthquake disasters on rural households. Exploring rural households’ willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance in earthquake disaster areas provides an understanding of the motivations underlying the implementation of an insurance policy. However, few studies have examined the perspectives of rural households, in order to explore the correlations between the rural households’ livelihood capital, their disaster risk perception, and their willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance. A cross-sectional survey data including 241 rural households from the most severe disaster counties (cities during the 5 • 12 Wenchuan earthquake was examined with regard to rural households’ livelihood and disaster risk perception, and ordinal logistic regression models were constructed to explore rural households’ willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance, as well as the driving mechanism behind this willingness. The results showed that 34.44% of rural households were very willing to purchase earthquake disaster insurance, and 7.05% of rural households were very reluctant to purchase earthquake insurance. Rural households’ livelihood capital and risk perceptions were the most important factors affecting their willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance. Rural households with higher scores on natural capital, physical capital, possibility, and worry were more likely to purchase earthquake disaster insurance. Specifically, keeping all other variables constant, every one unit increase in nature capital and physical capital corresponded to an increase in the odds of willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance by a factor of 0.14 and 0.06, respectively; every one unit increase in possibility and worry corresponded to an increase in the odds of willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance by a factor of 0.03 and 0.04, respectively

  12. Tsunami prevention and mitigation necessities and options derived from tsunami risk assessment in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Wegscheider, S.; Steinmetz, T.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Anwar, H. Z.; Birkmann, J.; Gebert, N.

    2009-04-01

    information and other GIS products will be presented. The focus of the products is on the one hand to provide relevant risk assessment products as decision support to issue a tsunami warning within the early warning stage. On the other hand the maps and GIS products shall provide relevant information to enable local decision makers to act adequately concerning their local risks. It is shown that effective prevention and mitigation measures can be designed based on risk assessment results and information especially when used pro-active and beforehand a disaster strikes. The conducted hazard assessment provides the probability of an area to be affected by a tsunami threat divided into two ranked impact zones. The two divided impact zones directly relate to tsunami warning levels issued by the Early Warning Center and consequently enable the local decision maker to base their planning (e.g. evacuation) accordingly. Within the tsunami hazard assessment several hundred pre-computed tsunami scenarios are analysed. This is combined with statistical analysis of historical event data. Probabilities of tsunami occurrence considering probabilities of different earthquake magnitudes, occurrences of specific wave heights at coast and spatial inundation probability are computed. Hazard assessment is then combined with a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. Here deficits in e.g. people's ability to receive and understand a tsunami warning and deficits in their ability to respond adequately (evacuate on time) are quantified and are visualized for the respective coastal areas. Hereby socio-economic properties (determining peoples ability to understand a warning and to react) are combined with environmental conditions (land cover, slope, population density) to calculate the time needed to evacuate (reach a tsunami safe area derived through the hazard assessment). This is implemented using a newly developed GIS cost-distance weighting approach. For example, the amount of people affected in a

  13. Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Brilly

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was often exposed to floods, the most recent serious floods being in 1990 and in 1998, with a hundred and fifty return period and more than ten year return period, respectively. Two surveys were conducted in 1997 and 2003, with 157 participants from different areas of the town in the first, and 208 in the second study, aiming at finding the general attitude toward the floods. The surveys revealed that floods present a serious threat in the eyes of the inhabitants, and that the perception of threat depends, to a certain degree, on the place of residence. The surveys also highlighted, among the other measures, solidarity and the importance of insurance against floods.

  14. CONTRACTUAL RISKS IN THE NEW ZEALAND CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasper Mbachu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While tendering for jobs, a contractor is expected to analyse the various risks in each prospective project and price them appropriately. Contingencies are included in the tender price to cater for the various risks based on their impacts on the project targets and profit margin. Currently in New Zealand (NZ, there is little or no information on the various contractual risks and their mitigation measures. This has led to contractors over compensating or under compensating for risks with costly consequences. This study aimed to establish priority contractual risks in the NZ construction industry, and their mitigation measures. The research was based on a questionnaire survey of consultants and contractors. Descriptive statistics and multi-attribute techniques were used in the data analysis. Results showed 21 risk factors which were segregated into 6 broad categories in diminishing levels of significance as follows: Site conditions, main contractor, pricing, subcontractor, external and client- related risks. Putting tags and conditions to risky price items in the tender bids, and transferring the risks onto other parties were analysed as the 2 most effective out of the 5 key risk mitigation measures identified. Being cautious of the priority risks and application of the identified effective risk mitigation measures could guide contractors and the project team to more appropriately budget for and respond to risks, thereby ensuring more satisfactory project outcomes.

  15. Understanding household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information: evidence from survey responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Chiradip; Mozumder, Pallab

    2014-06-01

    Risk information is critical to adopting mitigation measures, and seeking risk information is influenced by a variety of factors. An essential component of the recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida is to provide homeowners with pertinent risk information to facilitate hurricane risk mitigation activities. We develop an analytical framework to understand household preferences for hurricane risk mitigation information through allowing an intensive home inspection. An empirical analysis is used to identify major drivers of household preferences to receive personalized information regarding recommended hurricane risk mitigation measures. A variety of empirical specifications show that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow inspection to seek information. However, households with more members living in the home and households who live in manufactured/mobile homes are less likely to allow inspection. While findings imply MSFH program's ability to link incentives offered by private and public agencies in promoting mitigation, households that face a disproportionately higher level of risk can get priority to make the program more effective. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Coupling the Biophysical and Social Dimensions of Wildfire Risk to Improve Wildfire Mitigation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ager, Alan A; Kline, Jeffrey D; Fischer, A Paige

    2015-08-01

    We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social science to improve understanding of community-wide risk perceptions and to predict property owners' capacities and willingness to mitigate risk by treating hazardous fuels and reducing the susceptibility of dwellings. In particular, we identify spatial scale mismatches in wildfire mitigation planning and their potential adverse impact on risk mitigation goals. Studies in other fire-prone regions suggest that these scale mismatches are widespread and contribute to continued wildfire dwelling losses. We discuss how risk perceptions and behavior contribute to scale mismatches and how they can be minimized through integrated analyses of landscape wildfire transmission and social factors that describe the potential for collaboration among landowners and land management agencies. These concepts are then used to outline an integrated socioecological planning framework to identify optimal strategies for local community risk mitigation and improve landscape-scale prioritization of fuel management investments by government entities. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Polo pony injuries: player-owner reported risk, perception, mitigation and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inness, C M; Morgan, K L

    2015-07-01

    Polo, one of the world's oldest sports, is unique in merging human skill and balance with animal agility and performance in a contact sport. These modern-day 'centaurs' offer medical, dental and veterinary scientists an unrivalled, if quirky, opportunity to collaborate. Collection of epidemiological data on injuries to UK polo riders and ponies is the first step. To measure the reported risk and risk factors for injuries to UK polo ponies, their perception and mitigation by player-owners. A retrospective cohort design and telephone interviews were used. Data on equine injuries, preseason training and risk perception were collected from a random sample of player-owners using a structured questionnaire. Injuries were defined as requiring veterinary treatment. Frequencies were represented as percentages and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Risk factors for injuries were identified by univariable and multivariable analyses. The cumulative incidence of player-owner-reported injury was 10.6% (95% CI 8.4-12.7). Tendon injuries were most common (4.3%; 95% CI 2.9-5.7), followed by wounds and splints. The only risk factor was stabling all season (odds ratio 4.79; 95% CI 1.46-15.73). Tendon injuries were perceived as the major risk and hard ground the most important risk factor. Risk mitigation practices were bandaging before exercise (45.7%; 95% CI 34.8-56.5), checking tendons (84.0%; 95% CI 76.0-91.9), cold hosing (40.7%; 95% CI 30.0-51.4), bandaging (38.3%; 95% CI 27.7-48.9) and using clays and coolants after exercise (24.7%; 15.3-34.1). Cuts and wounds were considered most frequent by only 2.5% (95% CI 0.0-3.6) of players but were the second most common injury, accounting for 21.6% of veterinary treatments. Splints accounted for 12.5% of injuries. The risk of injury to polo ponies is similar to that in the general horse population; musculoskeletal injuries, particularly tendon injuries, are most common, followed by wounds and splints. The association between stabling and

  18. The MCE (Maximum Credible Earthquake) - an approach to reduction of seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asmis, G.J.K.; Atchison, R.J.

    1979-01-01

    It is the responsibility of the Regulatory Body (in Canada, the AECB) to ensure that radiological risks resulting from the effects of earthquakes on nuclear facilities, do not exceed acceptable levels. In simplified numerical terms this means that the frequency of an unacceptable radiation dose must be kept below 10 -6 per annum. Unfortunately, seismic events fall into the class of external events which are not well defined at these low frequency levels. Thus, design earthquakes have been chosen, at the 10 -3 - 10 -4 frequency level, a level commensurate with the limits of statistical data. There exists, therefore, a need to define an additional level of earthquake. A seismic design explicitly and implicitly recognizes three levels of earthquake loading; one comfortably below yield, one at or about yield, and one at ultimate. The ultimate level earthquake, contrary to the first two, has been implicitly addressed by conscientious designers by choosing systems, materials and details compatible with postulated dynamic forces. It is the purpose of this paper to discuss the regulatory specifications required to quantify this third level, or Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE). (orig.)

  19. Defeating Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    our actions. Using these global datasets will help to make the model as uniform as possible. The model must be built by scientists in the affected countries with GEM's support, augmented by their insights and data. The model will launch in 2014; to succeed it must be open, international, independent, and continuously tested. But the mission of GEM is not just the likelihood of ground shaking, but also gaging the economic and social consequences of earthquakes, which greatly amplify the losses. For example, should the municipality of Istanbul retrofit schools, or increase its insurance reserves and recovery capacity? Should a homeowner in a high-risk area move or strengthen her building? This is why GEM is a public-private partnership. GEM's fourteen public sponsors and eight non-governmental organization members are standing for the developing world. To extend GEM into the financial world, we draw upon the expertise of companies. GEM's ten private sponsors have endorsed the acquisition of public knowledge over private gain. In a competitive world, this is a courageous act. GEM is but one link in a chain of preparedness: from earth science and engineering research, through groups like GEM, to mitigation, retrofit or relocate decisions, building codes and insurance, and finally to prepared hospitals, schools, and homes. But it is a link that our community can make strong.

  20. A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubeck, P; Botzen, W J W; Aerts, J C J H

    2012-09-01

    In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical studies. Two arguments are provided as an explanation. First, on the basis of protection motivation theory, a theoretical framework is discussed suggesting that individuals' high-risk perceptions need to be accompanied by coping appraisal to result in a protective response. Second, it is pointed out that possible feedback from already-adopted mitigation measures on risk perceptions has hardly been considered by current studies. In addition, we also provide a review of factors that drive precautionary behavior other than risk perceptions. It is found that factors such as coping appraisal are consistently related to mitigation behavior. We conclude, therefore, that the current focus on risk perceptions as a means to explain and promote private flood mitigation behavior is not supported on either theoretical or empirical grounds. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. A review on disaster risk mitigation in the oil and gas project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodhi, N. N.; Anwar, N.; Wiguna, I. P. A.

    2018-01-01

    In addition to the very complex risks, hazards potentially lead to disasters in the oil and gas projects. These risks can certainly be anticipated with the application of risk management, but an unsystematic and ineffective implementation of risk management will still bring adverse impacts. According to the eleven risk management principles in ISO 31000:2009, the application of risk management must pay attention to all aspects, both internal and external factors. Thus, this paper aims to identify variables that could affect the disaster mitigation efforts of oil and gas projects. This research began with literature study to determine the problems of risk management in oil and gas projects, so the affecting variables as the study objectives can be specified subsequently based on the literature review as well. The variables that must be considered in the efforts of disaster risk mitigation of oil and gas project are the risk factors and sustainability aspect.

  2. It's Our Fault: better defining earthquake risk in Wellington, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Dissen, R.; Brackley, H. L.; Francois-Holden, C.

    2012-12-01

    The Wellington region, home of New Zealand's capital city, is cut by a number of major right-lateral strike slip faults, and is underlain by the currently locked west-dipping subduction interface between the down going Pacific Plate, and the over-riding Australian Plate. In its short historic period (ca. 160 years), the region has been impacted by large earthquakes on the strike-slip faults, but has yet to bear the brunt of a subduction interface rupture directly beneath the capital city. It's Our Fault is a comprehensive study of Wellington's earthquake risk. Its objective is to position the capital city of New Zealand to become more resilient through an encompassing study of the likelihood of large earthquakes, and the effects and impacts of these earthquakes on humans and the built environment. It's Our Fault is jointly funded by New Zealand's Earthquake Commission, Accident Compensation Corporation, Wellington City Council, Wellington Region Emergency Management Group, Greater Wellington Regional Council, and Natural Hazards Research Platform. The programme has been running for six years, and key results to date include better definition and constraints on: 1) location, size, timing, and likelihood of large earthquakes on the active faults closest to Wellington; 2) earthquake size and ground shaking characterization of a representative suite of subduction interface rupture scenarios under Wellington; 3) stress interactions between these faults; 4) geological, geotechnical, and geophysical parameterisation of the near-surface sediments and basin geometry in Wellington City and the Hutt Valley; and 5) characterisation of earthquake ground shaking behaviour in these two urban areas in terms of subsoil classes specified in the NZ Structural Design Standard. The above investigations are already supporting measures aimed at risk reduction, and collectively they will facilitate identification of additional actions that will have the greatest benefit towards further

  3. Economics and management of climate change: risks, mitigation and adaptation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Antes, Ralf

    2008-01-01

    ... climate change poses risks to societies and companies, nor about adequate strategies to cope with these risks. Bringing together scholars from environmental economics, political science, and business management, this book describes, analyses and evaluates climate change risks and responses of societies and companies. The book c...

  4. Best practices for mitigating soiling risk on PV power plants

    KAUST Repository

    AlDowsari, A.

    2015-09-24

    Solar power generates proven, predictable and economical energy and new innovations have made solar PV power plants easy to deploy, integrate and maintain. Areas with large solar energy potential are among the dustiest in the world. At first glance, solar would be a natural fit in many of these environments but humidity, airborne dust, and wind of these regions often bring high soiling rates that can accumulate to reduce performance by up to 10% per month on average, where soiling can be a major loss factor that affects the energy yield for PV plants especially in humid and dusty climates. Therefore, to achieve the desired performance ratio and obtain stable generation, mitigation solutions are proposed to overcome dust issues that affect the performance of PV plants. This makes PV module cleaning a key component for long-term plant performance and sustainable profitability. In this paper, a review of the mechanisms and mitigation solutions to overcome soiling on solar installations using real-world testing and verification is investigated with emphasis on dry type cleaning methods. © 2014 IEEE.

  5. Mitigating the consequences of future earthquakes in historical centres: what perspectives from the joined use of past information and geological-geophysical surveys?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terenzio Gizzi, Fabrizio; Moscatelli, Massimiliano; Potenza, Maria Rosaria; Zotta, Cinzia; Simionato, Maurizio; Pileggi, Domenico; Castenetto, Sergio

    2015-04-01

    To mitigate the damage effects of earthquakes in urban areas and particularly in historical centres prone to high seismic hazard is an important task to be pursued. As a matter of fact, seismic history throughout the world informs us that earthquakes have caused deep changes in the ancient urban conglomerations due to their high building vulnerability. Furthermore, some quarters can be exposed to an increase of seismic actions if compared with adjacent areas due to the geological and/or topographical features of the site on which the historical centres lie. Usually, the strategies aimed to estimate the local seismic hazard make only use of the geological-geophysical surveys. Thorough this approach we do not draw any lesson from what happened as a consequences of past earthquakes. With this in mind, we present the results of a joined use of historical data and traditional geological-geophysical approach to analyse the effects of possible future earthquakes in historical centres. The research activity discussed here is arranged into a joint collaboration between the Department of Civil Protection of the Presidency of Council of Ministers, the Institute of Environmental Geology and Geoengineering and the Institute of Archaeological and Monumental Heritage of the National (Italian) Research Council. In order to show the results, we discuss the preliminary achievements of the integrated study carried out on two historical towns located in Southern Apennines, a portion of the Italian peninsula exposed to high seismic hazard. Taking advantage from these two test sites, we also discuss some methodological implications that could be taken as a reference in the seismic microzonation studies.

  6. Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargeant, S.

    2012-04-01

    Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the

  7. Long-term effects of earthquake experience of young persons on cardiovascular disease risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Na; Wang, Yumei; Yu, Lulu; Song, Mei; Wang, Lan; Ji, Chunpeng

    2016-01-01

    Introduction The aim of the study was to study the long-term effect on cardiovascular disease risk factors of stress from direct experience of an earthquake as a young person. Material and methods We selected workers born between July 1, 1958 and July 1, 1976 who were examined at Kailuan General Hospital between May and October of 2013. Data on cardiovascular events were taken during the workers’ annual health examination conducted between 2006 and 2007. All subjects were divided into three groups according to their experience of the Tangshan earthquake of July 28, 1976, as follows: control group; exposed group 1 and exposed group 2. We compared cardiovascular disease risk factors between the three groups as well as by gender and age. Results One thousand one hundred and ninety-six workers were included in the final statistical analysis. Among all subjects, resting heart rate (p = 0.003), total cholesterol (p earthquake compared with unexposed controls, but were unrelated to loss of relatives. No significant difference in triglyceride levels was observed between the three groups (p = 0.900). Further refinement showed that the effects were restricted to males 40 years of age or older at the time of analysis, but were due primarily to age at the time of earthquake exposure (p = 0.002, p Earthquake experience in the early years of life has long-term effects on adult resting heart rate, total cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose, especially among men. PMID:28144258

  8. Public perceptions and acceptance of induced earthquakes related to energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McComas, Katherine A.; Lu, Hang; Keranen, Katie M.; Furtney, Maria A.; Song, Hwansuck

    2016-01-01

    Growing awareness of the potential for some energy-related activities to induce earthquakes has created a need to understand how the public evaluates the risks of induced earthquakes versus the benefits of energy development. To address this need, this study presents a web survey that used a between-subjects factorial experimental design to explore the views of 325 U.S. adults, who were asked about their experiences with earthquakes; risk perceptions related to different causes of earthquakes (e.g., natural versus induced); and acceptability of earthquakes depending on the benefits, beneficiaries, and decision making process. The results found that participants had more negative feelings toward induced versus naturally occurring earthquakes. Although they judged no earthquake as “acceptable,” participants rated induced earthquakes significantly less acceptable than naturally occurring ones. Attributing the benefits to the provision of renewable energy or climate change mitigation did not increase induced earthquake acceptability, and no particular beneficiary made earthquakes more acceptable, although private companies as beneficiaries made earthquakes less acceptable. Finally, induced earthquake acceptability was significantly higher when people believed that people like them had a voice in the decision to implement the technology that caused the earthquake, underscoring the importance of public engagement in the development of energy technologies. - Highlights: • Human induced earthquakes were perceived as more negative than natural earthquakes. • Attributing benefits to renewable energy did not increase earthquake acceptability. • Acceptability was highest after a procedurally fair decision making process. • Acceptability was lowest following an expert-driven decision.

  9. Mitigating fall risk: A community fall reduction program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinoso, Humberto; McCaffrey, Ruth G; Taylor, David W M

    One fourth of all American's over 65 years of age fall each year. Falls are a common and often devastating event that can pose a serious health risk for older adults. Healthcare providers are often unable to spend the time required to assist older adults with fall risk issues. Without a team approach to fall prevention the system remains focused on fragmented levels of health promotion and risk prevention. The specific aim of this project was to engage older adults from the community in a fall risk assessment program, using the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths & Injuries (STEADI) program, and provide feedback on individual participants' risks that participants could share with their primary care physician. Older adults who attended the risk screening were taking medications that are known to increase falls. They mentioned that their health care providers do not screen for falls and appreciated a community based screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. The use of management controls to mitigate risk in strategic alliances: Field and survey evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anderson, S.W.; Christ, M.; Dekker, H.C.; Sedatole, K.L.

    2014-01-01

    Transaction cost economics (TCE) theory is widely used to study the governance and management control practices used to mitigate interfirm alliance risk. Following Williamson (1985, 1991), empirical studies typically measure transaction characteristics that proxy for risk in alliances (e.g., asset

  11. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goede, A. P. H.; Bongers, W. A.; Elzendoorn, B. S. Q.; M. F. Graswinckel,; M.R. de Baar,

    2010-01-01

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This

  12. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goede, A.P.H.; Bongers, W.A.; Elzendoorn, B.S.Q.; Graswinckel, M.F.; Baar, M.R. de

    2010-01-01

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

  13. Coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire risk to improve wildfire mitigation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan A. Ager; Jeffrey D. Kline; A. Paige Fisher

    2015-01-01

    We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social...

  14. Risks mitigation in the poulty sub-sector in Oyo state: A case study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risks and uncertainties associated with agricultural business have to a great extent undermined the productivity and sustainability of the agricultural sector by reducing the availability of institutional credit for investment in agriculture. Hence, this article examined the risks mitigating functions of the Nigerian Agricultural ...

  15. Definition of a short-cut methodology for assessing earthquake-related Na-Tech risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busini, Valentina; Marzo, Enrico; Callioni, Andrea; Rota, Renato

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → In industrial sites located in natural hazard-prone areas technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating the so-called Na-Tech accidents. → In this paper, a qualitative screening methodology for assessing the earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed with the aim of identifying which situations deserve a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis. → The simple procedure developed, which summarizes in a suitable Key Hazard Indicator the Na-Tech risk level, has been validated by comparing its results with those of some Quantitative Risk Analyses involving also Na-Tech events and previously presented in the literature. - Abstract: Na-Tech (Natural and Technological) refers to industrial accidents triggered by natural events such as storms, earthquakes, flooding, and lightning. Herein, a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). The proposed methodology, through suitable Key Hazard Indicators (KHIs), identifies the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation (i.e., a process plant located in a given territory), using the Analytical Hierarchy Process as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such KHIs. The developed methodology was validated by comparing its computational results with QRA results that involved Na-Tech events previously presented in literature.

  16. Risk mitigation strategies for operations and maintenance activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-01

    The objective of this research was to investigate the application of integrated risk modeling to operations and maintenance activities, specifically moving operations, such as pavement testing, pavement marking, painting, snow removal, shoulder work,...

  17. Wastewater Irrigation and Health: Assessing and Mitigating Risk in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2009-12-18

    Dec 18, 2009 ... In most developing countries wastewater treatment systems have very low ... from a practical and realistic perspective, addressing the issues of health risk ... at the International Water Management Institute ( IWMI ), Sri Lanka.

  18. TAMING TROJAN HORSES: IDENTIFYING AND MITIGATING CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY RISKS

    OpenAIRE

    P. P. M. A. R. HEUGENS; N. A. DENTCHEV

    2007-01-01

    textabstractOrganizations are exposed to increasing pressures from their constituents to integrate corporate social responsibility (CSR) principles into their ongoing business practices. But accepting new and potentially open-ended commitments is not a harmless exercise, and companies may well expose themselves to serious risks when embracing such principles. To identify these risks, we conducted two naturalistic studies: one exploratory, the other corroborative. The results show that CSR ado...

  19. Overview of Risk Mitigation for Safety-Critical Computer-Based Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2015-01-01

    This report presents a high-level overview of a general strategy to mitigate the risks from threats to safety-critical computer-based systems. In this context, a safety threat is a process or phenomenon that can cause operational safety hazards in the form of computational system failures. This report is intended to provide insight into the safety-risk mitigation problem and the characteristics of potential solutions. The limitations of the general risk mitigation strategy are discussed and some options to overcome these limitations are provided. This work is part of an ongoing effort to enable well-founded assurance of safety-related properties of complex safety-critical computer-based aircraft systems by developing an effective capability to model and reason about the safety implications of system requirements and design.

  20. Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Liebig

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

  1. Impact of connected vehicles on mitigating secondary crash risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Reducing the risk of secondary crashes is a key goal for effective traffic incident management. However, only few countermeasures have been established in practices to achieve the goal. This is mainly due to the stochastic nature of both primary and secondary crashes. Given the emerging connected vehicle (CV technologies, it is highly likely that CVs will soon be able to communicate with each other through the ad-hoc wireless vehicular network. Information sharing among vehicles is deemed to change traffic operations and allow motorists for more proactive actions. Motorists who receive safety messages can be motivated to approach queues and incident sites with more caution. As a result of the improved situational awareness, the risk of secondary crashes is expected to be reduced. To examine whether this expectation is achievable or not, this study aims to assess the impact of connectivity on the risk of secondary crashes. A simulation-based modeling framework that enables vehicle-to-vehicle communication module was developed. Since crashes cannot be directly simulated in micro-simulation, the use of surrogate safety measures was proposed to capture vehicular conflicts as a proxy for secondary crash risk upstream of a primary crash site. An experimental study was conducted based on the developed simulation modeling framework. The results show that the use of connected vehicles can be a viable way to reduce the risk of secondary crashes. Their impact is expected to change with an increasing market penetration of connected vehicles.

  2. Human perception of radon risk and radon mitigation: Some remarks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neznal, M.; Neznal, M.

    2008-01-01

    The Radon program in the Czech Republic has a relatively long and rich history. Procedures, which enable to evaluate the risk of radon penetration from the ground, to protect new buildings, to find existing buildings with elevated indoor radon levels and to realise remedial measures in such buildings, have been developed, published and tested. In some cases, the whole system may fail due to psychological or sociological reasons. Three types of problems (conflicts) will be presented: human behaviour affecting measurement results, conflict between individual and 'all-society' points of view, interpretation of radon risk itself. (authors)

  3. Agent of opportunity risk mitigation: people, engineering, and security efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Margaret E; Tunik, Michael G; Farmer, Brenna M; Bendzans, Carly; McCrillis, Aileen M; Nelson, Lewis S; Portelli, Ian; Smith, Silas; Goldberg, Judith D; Zhang, Meng; Rosenberg, Sheldon D; Goldfrank, Lewis R

    2010-12-01

    Agents of opportunity (AO) are potentially harmful biological, chemical, radiological, and pharmaceutical substances commonly used for health care delivery and research. AOs are present in all academic medical centers (AMC), creating vulnerability in the health care sector; AO attributes and dissemination methods likely predict risk; and AMCs are inadequately secured against a purposeful AO dissemination, with limited budgets and competing priorities. We explored health care workers' perceptions of AMC security and the impact of those perceptions on AO risk. Qualitative methods (survey, interviews, and workshops) were used to collect opinions from staff working in a medical school and 4 AMC-affiliated hospitals concerning AOs and the risk to hospital infrastructure associated with their uncontrolled presence. Secondary to this goal, staff perception concerning security, or opinions about security behaviors of others, were extracted, analyzed, and grouped into themes. We provide a framework for depicting the interaction of staff behavior and access control engineering, including the tendency of staff to "defeat" inconvenient access controls. In addition, 8 security themes emerged: staff security behavior is a significant source of AO risk; the wide range of opinions about "open" front-door policies among AMC staff illustrates a disparity of perceptions about the need for security; interviewees expressed profound skepticism concerning the effectiveness of front-door access controls; an AO risk assessment requires reconsideration of the security levels historically assigned to areas such as the loading dock and central distribution sites, where many AOs are delivered and may remain unattended for substantial periods of time; researchers' view of AMC security is influenced by the ongoing debate within the scientific community about the wisdom of engaging in bioterrorism research; there was no agreement about which areas of the AMC should be subject to stronger access

  4. A bridge column with superelastic NiTi SMA and replaceable rubber hinge for earthquake damage mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varela, Sebastian; ‘Saiid' Saiidi, M.

    2016-07-01

    This paper reports a unique concept for resilient bridge columns that can undergo intense earthquake loading and remain functional with minimal damage and residual drift. In this concept, the column is designed so that its components can be easily disassembled and reassembled to facilitate material recycling and component reuse. This is meant to foster sustainability of bridge systems while minimizing monetary losses from earthquakes. Self-centering and energy dissipation in the column were provided by unbonded superelastic nickel-titanium (NiTi) shape memory alloy bars placed inside a plastic hinge element made of rubber. This replaceable plastic hinge was in turn attached to a concrete-filled carbon fiber-reinforced polymer tube and a precast concrete footing that were designed to behave elastically. The proposed concept was evaluated experimentally by testing a ¼-scale column model under simulated near-fault earthquake motions on a shake table. After testing, the model was disassembled, reassembled and tested again. The seismic performance of the reassembled model was found to be comparable to that of the ‘virgin’ model. A relatively simple computational model of the column tested that was developed in OpenSees was able to match some of the key experimental response parameters.

  5. Land Use Measures are Underused in Flood Risk Mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brink, van den A.; Neuvel, J.J.M. (Jeroen)

    2010-01-01

    New research in the Netherlands indicates that spatial planning to manage flood risk, such as the elevation of residential areas and the exclusion of vulnerable land uses from flood-prone areas, is underused. Its use appears to depend on governmental requirements, previous experience of flooding and

  6. Mitigating artifacts in back-projection source imaging with implications for frequency-dependent properties of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Lingsen; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Luo, Yingdi; Wu, Wenbo; Ni, Sidao

    2012-12-01

    Comparing teleseismic array back-projection source images of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake with results from static and kinematic finite source inversions has revealed little overlap between the regions of high- and low-frequency slip. Motivated by this interesting observation, back-projection studies extended to intermediate frequencies, down to about 0.1 Hz, have suggested that a progressive transition of rupture properties as a function of frequency is observable. Here, by adapting the concept of array response function to non-stationary signals, we demonstrate that the "swimming artifact", a systematic drift resulting from signal non-stationarity, induces significant bias on beamforming back-projection at low frequencies. We introduce a "reference window strategy" into the multitaper-MUSIC back-projection technique and significantly mitigate the "swimming artifact" at high frequencies (1 s to 4 s). At lower frequencies, this modification yields notable, but significantly smaller, artifacts than time-domain stacking. We perform extensive synthetic tests that include a 3D regional velocity model for Japan. We analyze the recordings of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake at the USArray and at the European array at periods from 1 s to 16 s. The migration of the source location as a function of period, regardless of the back-projection methods, has characteristics that are consistent with the expected effect of the "swimming artifact". In particular, the apparent up-dip migration as a function of frequency obtained with the USArray can be explained by the "swimming artifact". This indicates that the most substantial frequency-dependence of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake source occurs at periods longer than 16 s. Thus, low-frequency back-projection needs to be further tested and validated in order to contribute to the characterization of frequency-dependent rupture properties.

  7. Prospect of future housing and risk of psychological distress at 1 year after an earthquake disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakaya, Naoki; Nakamura, Tomohiro; Tsuchiya, Naho; Narita, Akira; Tsuji, Ichiro; Hozawa, Atsushi; Tomita, Hiroaki

    2016-04-01

    Since the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, many of the affected have been forced to live in temporary housing or at a relative's house. Special attention needs to be paid to the negative health impacts resulting from such changes in living conditions. This study examined the association between future housing prospects and the risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake. In 2012, a questionnaire was completed by a cross-sectional study of people aged 20 years or older living in Shichigahama Town, Miyagi, northeastern Japan, an area that had been severely inundated by the tsunami. Future housing prospects post-earthquake were classified into four categories: already settled in permanent housing, moving to new housing, under consideration, or unable to make any plans. Psychological distress was evaluated using the Kessler 6 scale, defined as ≥5 points out of 24. We performed multiple logistic regression analyses adjusted for potential confounding factors. Of the 3614 individuals studied, subjects whose future housing was under consideration (odds ratio [OR] = 2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6-2.7, P prospects were under consideration and those who were unable to make any future housing plans were at a higher risk of psychological distress 1 year after the earthquake disaster. © 2015 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2015 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

  8. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Comparative risk assessments for Guadeloupe: earthquakes and storm surge

    OpenAIRE

    Réveillère , Arnaud; Monfort , Daniel; Lecacheux , Sophie; Grisanti , Ludovic; Muller , Héloise; Bertil , Didier; Rohmer , Jérémy; Sedan , Olivier; Douglas , John; Baills , Audrey; Modaressi , Hormoz

    2012-01-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exi...

  10. Meteorological Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Bugnon, Pierre-Charles; Nsengiyumva, Jean-Baptiste; Horton, Pascal; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2015-04-01

    used in identifying the most risky areas. Finally, based on practical experiences in this kind of field and produced documents some recommendations for low-cost mitigation measures will be proposed. Reference: MIDIMAR, Impacts of floods and landslides on socio-economic development profile. Case study: Musanze District. Kigali, June 2012.

  11. Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

    2016-12-01

    We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

  12. Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches

  13. Mitigating the Risk of Environmental Hazards in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-28

    wildfires.9 Infectious hazards in Mexico pose an intermediate risk of disease and include food or waterborne illness, hepatitis, dengue fever , Valley Fever ...the type of health threat that is posed. 12 Nanotechnology: Within the Latin American region , Brazil , Argentina and Mexico are leaders in...07/25/ dengue -on-the-loose/ (accessed 11 October 2011). 41. Environmental Protection Agency, State of the Border Region Indicators Report 2005, EPA

  14. Risks evaluation and mitigation in the new energetic markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Afonso Henriques Moreira; Vieira, Daniela Calazans; Krause, Gilson Galvao

    1999-01-01

    The central issue of debate was the need to align the energy sector's options and organization with changing global patterns of economic and social development, characterized by the increasing role played by the private sector, greater integration in the world economy, and new economic and social priorities such as efficiency, decentralization, deregulation, and a closer attention to environmental issues. The aim of the work was to evaluate the Brazilian electric power market risks and the their agents' relationship after the privatization advent

  15. Operation Risk Mitigation On Halal Meat Supply Chain Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansur, Agus; Farida, Ayu; Ulil Albab, Muhammad

    2017-06-01

    Business owner of perishable goods such as meats has barriers to meet the demand of worldwide shipping. One of potential risk is damage resulting in decreased quality product, while the product selection criteria not only focus on quality. As the development of health issues and needs, halal meats is not only considered by the Muslim consumer but also consumer globally. In addition, they have to pay attention to the possible risk that might occur during the logistic operations so as they prevent loss if they fail to deal with the problem and risk properly. Quality Function Development proposed to identify what consumer’s need as well as to analyse the condition of market in the future. The study is conducted in the context of business owner’s feelings based on their obstacles. It also aims to unravel the expectations and perceptions of owners with interrelated issues such as halal meats with each affecting on the other multidirectional ways. This study has revealed new insights for policy makers, logistics service providers, and practitioners whose decisions might impact the industry.

  16. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  17. Geoethical suggestions for reducing risk of next (not only strong) earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemec, Vaclav

    2013-04-01

    Three relatively recent examples of earthquakes can be used as a background for suggesting geoethical views into any prediction accompanied by a risk analysis. ĹAquila earthquake (Italy - 2009): ĹAquila was largely destroyed by earthquakes in 1315, 1319, 1452, 1461, 1501, 1646, 1703 (until that time altogether about 3000 victims) and 1786 (about 6000 victims of this event only). The city was rebuilt and remained stable until October 2008, when tremors began again. From January 1 through April 5, 2009, additional 304 tremors were reported. When after measuring increased levels of radon emitted from the ground a local citizen (for many years working for the Italian National Institute of Astrophysics) predicted a major earthquake on Italian television, he was accused of being alarmist. Italy's National Commission for Prediction and Prevention of Major Risks met in L'Aquila for one hour on March 31, 2009, without really evaluating and characterising the risks that were present. On April 6 a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck Aquila and nearby towns, killing 309 people and injuring more than 1,500. The quake also destroyed roughly 20,000 buildings, temporarily displacing another 65,000 people. In July 2010, prosecutor Fabio Picuti charged the Commission members with manslaughter and negligence for failing to warn the public of the impending risk. Many international organizations joined the chorus of criticism wrongly interpreting the accusation and sentence at the first stage as a problem of impossibility to predict earthquakes. - The Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption (Iceland - 2010) is a reminder that in our globalized, interconnected world because of the increased sensibility of the new technology even a relatively small natural disaster may cause unexpected range of problems. - Earthquake and tsunami (Japan - 2011) - the most powerful known earthquake ever to have hit Japan on March 11. Whereas the proper earthquake with the magnitude of 9.0 has caused minimum of

  18. Hypnotic Medications and Suicide: Risk, Mechanisms, Mitigation, and the FDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, W Vaughn; Benca, Ruth M; Rosenquist, Peter B; Riley, Mary Anne; McCloud, Laryssa; Newman, Jill C; Case, Doug; Rumble, Meredith; Krystal, Andrew D

    2017-01-01

    Insomnia is associated with increased risk for suicide. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has mandated that warnings regarding suicide be included in the prescribing information for hypnotic medications. The authors conducted a review of the evidence for and against the claim that hypnotics increase the risk of suicide. This review focused on modern, FDA-approved hypnotics, beginning with the introduction of benzodiazepines, limiting its findings to adults. PubMed and Web of Science were searched, crossing the terms "suicide" and "suicidal" with each of the modern FDA-approved hypnotics. The FDA web site was searched for postmarketing safety reviews, and the FDA was contacted with requests to provide detailed case reports for hypnotic-related suicide deaths reported through its Adverse Event Reporting System. Epidemiological studies show that hypnotics are associated with an increased risk for suicide. However, none of these studies adequately controlled for depression or other psychiatric disorders that may be linked with insomnia. Suicide deaths have been reported from single-agent hypnotic overdoses. A separate concern is that benzodiazepine receptor agonist hypnotics can cause parasomnias, which in rare cases may lead to suicidal ideation or suicidal behavior in persons who were not known to be suicidal. On the other hand, ongoing research is testing whether treatment of insomnia may reduce suicidality in adults with depression. The review findings indicate that hypnotic medications are associated with suicidal ideation. Future studies should be designed to assess whether increases in suicidality result from CNS impairments from a given hypnotic medication or whether such medication decreases suicidality because of improvements in insomnia.

  19. Oxygen deficiency at CERN: Hazards, risks & mitigation measures

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    Compressed and liquified gases are used at many places at CERN. If they are introduced to the atmosphere, they can present an oxygen deficiency hazard (ODH) and lead to reduced abilities, unconsciousness or even death. The CERN method for ODH risk assessments is done on a case-by-case basis as each situation is unique. It is crucial to make sure the personnel can evacuate safely in case of an ODH situation. My talk will explain human reactions to reduced oxygen levels and I will give some practical examples on how one can assess and control the hazards from a possible oxygen deficient atmosphere. Some real accidents involving oxygen deficiency will also be mentioned.

  20. Sandstone Relief Geohazards and their Mitigation: Rock Fall Risk Management in the Bohemian Switzerland National Park

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vařilová, Zuzana; Zvelebil, J.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 44, - (2005), s. 53-58 ISSN 1682-5519. [Sandstone Landscapes in Europe. Past, Present and Future. International Conference on Sandstone Landscapes /2./. Vianden, 25.05.2005-28.05.2005] Keywords : sandstones * rock-slope instability * rock fall * risk evalution and mitigation * monitoring net * remedial works Subject RIV: DO - Wilderness Conservation

  1. A Review of Risk Perceptions and Other Factors that Influence Flood Mitigation Behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bubeck, P.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2012-01-01

    In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual

  2. Strategies for Mitigation of Flood Risk in the Niger Delta, Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    jen

    ABSTRACT: The study has the major objective of evaluating flood risk mitigation strategies in the Niger. Delta, a coastal region of Nigeria that suffers from perennial flooding. The Raper argues that the structural methods of flood control tends to give a false sense of security to flood plain dwellers and thereby encouraging.

  3. [Trust in organizations concerned with risks of the Great East Japan Earthquake].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayachi, Kazuya; Kudo, Daisuke; Ozaki, Taku

    2014-06-01

    This study investigated the levels of public trust in organizations associated with the Great East Japan Earthquake. In Study 1 (N = 639), the levels of trust in eight organizations as well as the determinants of trust--perceived salient value similarity (SVS), ability, and motivation--were measured twice, first immediately after the earthquake and then a year later. The results indicated that the trust levels for six of the eight organizations had been preserved, supporting the double asymmetric effect of trust. The results of structural equation modeling (SEM) revealed that SVS explained trust more when the organization had been less trusted. Trust in the organization explains well the perceived reduction of the target risk. The results of SEM in Study 2 (N = 1,030) replicated those of Study 1, suggesting the stability of the explanatory power of the determinants of trust. Implications of the study for risk management practices are discussed.

  4. Cloud computing in pharmaceutical R&D: business risks and mitigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Karl

    2010-05-01

    Cloud computing provides information processing power and business services, delivering these services over the Internet from centrally hosted locations. Major technology corporations aim to supply these services to every sector of the economy. Deploying business processes 'in the cloud' requires special attention to the regulatory and business risks assumed when running on both hardware and software that are outside the direct control of a company. The identification of risks at the correct service level allows a good mitigation strategy to be selected. The pharmaceutical industry can take advantage of existing risk management strategies that have already been tested in the finance and electronic commerce sectors. In this review, the business risks associated with the use of cloud computing are discussed, and mitigations achieved through knowledge from securing services for electronic commerce and from good IT practice are highlighted.

  5. Nurses' Perceptions of Implementing Fall Prevention Interventions to Mitigate Patient-Specific Fall Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Deleise S; Montie, Mary; Conlon, Paul; Reynolds, Margaret; Ripley, Robert; Titler, Marita G

    2016-08-01

    Evidence-based (EB) fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risk factors are readily available but not routinely used in practice. Few studies have examined nurses' perceptions about both the use of these EB interventions and implementation strategies designed to promote their adoption. This article reports qualitative findings of nurses' perceptions about use of EB fall prevention interventions to mitigate patient-specific fall risks, and implementation strategies to promote use of these interventions. The findings revealed five major themes: before-study fall prevention practices, use of EB fall prevention interventions tailored to patient-specific fall risk factors, beneficial implementation strategies, overall impact on approach to fall prevention, and challenges These findings are useful to guide nurses' engagement and use of EB fall prevention practices tailored to patient-specific fall risk factors. © The Author(s) 2016.

  6. Nanopesticides and nanofertilizers: emerging contaminants or opportunities for risk mitigation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie eKah

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Research into nanotechnology applications for use in agriculture has become increasingly popular over the past decade, with a particular interest in developing novel nanoagrochemicals in the form of so-called nanopesticides and nanofertilizers. In view of the extensive body of scientific literature available on the topic, many authors have foreseen a revolution in current agricultural practices.This perspective integrates scientific, regulatory, public and commercial viewpoints, and aims at critically evaluating progress made over the last decade. A number of key (and sometimes controversial questions are addressed with the aim of identifying the products that will soon emerge on the market and analyzing how they can fit into current regulatory and commercial frameworks. Issues related to the differences in definitions and perceptions within different sectors are discussed, as well as our current ability to assess new risks and benefits relative to conventional products. Many nanoagrochemicals resemble products used currently, which raises the question whether the effect of formulation has been sufficiently taken into account when evaluating agrochemicals. This analysis identifies directions for future research and regulatory needs in order to encourage intelligent design and promote the development of more sustainable agrochemicals.

  7. Intelligent seismic risk mitigation system on structure building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryanita, R.; Maizir, H.; Yuniorto, E.; Jingga, H.

    2018-01-01

    Indonesia located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, is one of the highest-risk seismic zone in the world. The strong ground motion might cause catastrophic collapse of the building which leads to casualties and property damages. Therefore, it is imperative to properly design the structural response of building against seismic hazard. Seismic-resistant building design process requires structural analysis to be performed to obtain the necessary building responses. However, the structural analysis could be very difficult and time consuming. This study aims to predict the structural response includes displacement, velocity, and acceleration of multi-storey building with the fixed floor plan using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method based on the 2010 Indonesian seismic hazard map. By varying the building height, soil condition, and seismic location in 47 cities in Indonesia, 6345 data sets were obtained and fed into the ANN model for the learning process. The trained ANN can predict the displacement, velocity, and acceleration responses with up to 96% of predicted rate. The trained ANN architecture and weight factors were later used to build a simple tool in Visual Basic program which possesses the features for prediction of structural response as mentioned previously.

  8. Risk assessment and mitigation at the information technology companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Marx

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Developing computer software that is free from material defects is the ultimate goal for software developers; however, due to the cost and complexity of software development, it is a goal that is unlikely to be achieved. As a consequence of the inevitable defects that manifest within computer software, the task of software patch management becomes a key focus area for software companies, IT departments, and even end users. Audit departments, as part of their responsibilities, are required to provide assurance on the patching process and therefore need to understand the various decision-making factors. Software flaws that exist within computer systems may put confidential information at risk and may also compromise the availability of such systems. The study investigated the recommended approaches for the task of software patching, with a view to balancing the sometimes conflicting requirements of security and system availability. The study found that there are a number of key aspects that are required to ensure a successful patching process and that the internal auditors of the ‘big four’ South African banks considered most of these factors to be important

  9. To Risk or Not to Risk: Anxiety and the Calibration between Risk Perception and Danger Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Notebaert, Lies; Masschelein, Stijn; Wright, Bridget; MacLeod, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Anxiety prepares an organism for dealing with threats by recruiting cognitive resources to process information about the threat, and by engaging physiological systems to prepare a response. Heightened trait anxiety is associated with biases in both these processes: high trait-anxious individuals tend to report heightened risk perceptions, and…

  10. Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: a mid-project progress report

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available such as Japan. A 5-year collaborative project entitled "Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks" was launched in 2010 to address these risks, drawing on over a century of South African and Japanese research experience... network in the mining districts. Figure 1. Schematic illustration of the research design. Jpn - Japanese researchers; CSIR - Council for Scientific and Industrial Research; CGS - Council for Geoscience The knowledge gained during the course...

  11. Identifying and mitigating risks for agricultural injury associated with obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan King

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In some occupational contexts overweight and obesity have been identified as risk factors for injury. The purpose of this study was to examine this hypothesis within farm work environments and then to identify specific opportunities for environmental modification as a preventive strategy. Data on farm-related injuries, height and weight used to calculate body mass index (BMI, and demographic characteristics were from the Phase 2 baseline survey of the Saskatchewan Farm Injury Cohort; a large cross-sectional mail-based survey conducted in Saskatchewan, Canada from January through May 2013. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associations between BMI and injury. Injury narratives were explored qualitatively. Findings were inconsistent and differed according to gender. Among women (n = 927, having overweight (adjusted OR: 2.94; 95% CI: 1.29 to 6.70 but not obesity (1.10; 95% CI: 0.35 to 3.43 was associated with an increased odds of incurring a farm-related injury. No strong or statistically significant effects were observed for men (n = 1406 with overweight or obesity. While injury-related challenges associated with obesity have been addressed in other occupational settings via modification of the worksite, such strategies are challenging to implement in farm settings because of the diversity of work tasks and associated hazards. We conclude that the acute effects of overweight in terms of injury do require consideration in agricultural populations, but these should also be viewed with a differentiation based on gender.

  12. Risk factors for malnutrition in under-five children: one year after the Yogyakarta earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neti Nurani

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Background Malnutrition in children under the age of five remains a major health problem, since half of mortality cases in this age group involve malnutrition. The 2006 earthquake caused destruction of physical, biological and socio-economic environments, potentially leading to malnutrition in Yogyakarta children. Objective To identify the prevalence and risk factors of malnutrition in Yogyakarta children under five years of age, one year after the 2006 earthquake. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study among children aged 0 to 60 months in the Bambanglipuro Subdistrict, Bantul Regency, Yogyakarta from September to October 2007. Nutritional status was determined using weight for height Z-scores, according to the WHO 2006 Child Growth Standards. Results Out of 666 subjects, we found severe malnutrition, undernutrition, normal weight, and overweight status in 1.7%, 4.8%, 88.6% and 4.8%, respectively. By multivariate analysis, risk factors for malnutrition were not having been weighed during the previous three months (OR 0.35; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.8 and having acute respiratory infection in the previous two weeks (OR 1.99; 95% CI 1.1 to 3.8 Conclusion One year following the 2006 earthquake, acute respiratory infection in the previous two weeks and unmonitored growth in the previous three months were risk factors for malnutrition in children under five years.

  13. Minimization of Basis Risk in Parametric Earthquake Cat Bonds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.

    2009-12-01

    A catastrophe -cat- bond is an instrument used by insurance and reinsurance companies, by governments or by groups of nations to cede catastrophic risk to the financial markets, which are capable of supplying cover for highly destructive events, surpassing the typical capacity of traditional reinsurance contracts. Parametric cat bonds, a specific type of cat bonds, use trigger mechanisms or indices that depend on physical event parameters published by respected third parties in order to determine whether a part or the entire bond principal is to be paid for a certain event. First generation cat bonds, or cat-in-a-box bonds, display a trigger mechanism that consists of a set of geographic zones in which certain conditions need to be met by an earthquake’s magnitude and depth in order to trigger payment of the bond principal. Second generation cat bonds use an index formulation that typically consists of a sum of products of a set of weights by a polynomial function of the ground motion variables reported by a geographically distributed seismic network. These instruments are especially appealing to developing countries with incipient insurance industries wishing to cede catastrophic losses to the financial markets because the payment trigger mechanism is transparent and does not involve the parties ceding or accepting the risk, significantly reducing moral hazard. In order to be successful in the market, however, parametric cat bonds have typically been required to specify relatively simple trigger conditions. The consequence of such simplifications is the increase of basis risk. This risk represents the possibility that the trigger mechanism fails to accurately capture the actual losses of a catastrophic event, namely that it does not trigger for a highly destructive event or vice versa, that a payment of the bond principal is caused by an event that produced insignificant losses. The first case disfavors the sponsor who was seeking cover for its losses while the

  14. Earthquake risk reduction in the United States: An assessment of selected user needs and recommendations for the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    This Assessment was conducted to improve the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) by providing NEHRP agencies with information that supports their user-oriented setting of crosscutting priorities in the NEHRP strategic planning process. The primary objective of this Assessment was to take a ``snapshot`` evaluation of the needs of selected users throughout the major program elements of NEHRP. Secondary objectives were to conduct an assessment of the knowledge that exists (or is being developed by NEHRP) to support earthquake risk reduction, and to begin a process of evaluating how NEHRP is meeting user needs. An identification of NEHRP`s strengths also resulted from the effort, since those strengths demonstrate successful methods that may be useful to NEHRP in the future. These strengths are identified in the text, and many of them represent important achievements since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act was passed in 1977.

  15. Construction Project Administration and Management for Mitigating Work Zone Accidents and Fatalities: An Integrated Risk Management Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    The goal of this research is to mitigate the risk of highway accidents (crashes) and fatalities in work zones. The approach of this research has been to address the mitigation of work zone crashes through the creation of a formal risk management mode...

  16. Cost shared wildfire risk mitigation in Log Hill Mesa, Colorado: Survey evidence on participation and willingness to pay

    Science.gov (United States)

    James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ; Travis Warziniack; Hannah Brenkert-Smith; Christopher M. Barth; Lilia C. Falk

    2014-01-01

    Wildland-urban interface (WUI) homeowners who do not mitigate the wildfire risk on their properties impose a negative externality on society. To reduce the social costs of wildfire and incentivise homeowners to take action, cost sharing programs seek to reduce the barriers that impede wildfire risk mitigation. Using survey data from a WUI community in western Colorado...

  17. Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyst, M.

    2012-12-01

    The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses

  18. Optimum cooling of data centers application of risk assessment and mitigation techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Dai, Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael G

    2014-01-01

    This book provides data center designers and operators with methods by which to assess and mitigate the risks associated with utilization of optimum cooling solutions. The goal is to provide readers with sufficient knowledge to implement measures such as free air cooling or direct liquid immersion cooling properly, or combination of existing and emerging cooling technologies in data centers, base stations, and server farms. This book also: Discusses various telecommunication infrastructures, with an emphasis on data centers and base stations Covers the most commonly known energy and power management techniques, as well as emerging cooling solutions for data centers Describes the risks to the electronic equipment fitted in these installations and the methods of risk mitigation Devotes  a particular focus to an up-to-date review of the emerging cooling methods (such as free air cooling and direct liquid immersion cooling) and tools and best practices for designers, technology developers, installation operators...

  19. Storm surges-An option for Hamburg, Germany, to mitigate expected future aggravation of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, Hans von; Goennert, Gabriele; Meine, Manfred

    2008-01-01

    Summary: Rising sea level together with regionally increased storm activity, caused by elevated and increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will in many parts of the world increase the risk of storm surges significantly. Reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere may mitigate the increasing risks somewhat, but the major task for regional and local stakeholders will be to prepare for appropriate adaptation. In most cases, possible strategies include intensification of coastal defense measures, in particular strengthening dykes, and adaptation to intermittent flooding. In case of Hamburg and the tidal Elbe river a third option seems to be available, which aims at mitigating storm surge risks by applying estuary engineering constructions. This option is sketched in this paper. The option has the potential to significantly reduce the expected future increases of local surge heights

  20. Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, E.R. Sr.

    1991-01-01

    Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

  1. Risk mitigation strategies for viral contamination of biotechnology products: consideration of best practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, Amy S; Cherney, Barry; Brorson, Kurt; Clouse, Kathleen; Kozlowski, Steven; Hughes, Patricia; Friedman, Rick

    2011-01-01

    CONFERENCE PROCEEDING Proceedings of the PDA/FDA Adventitious Viruses in Biologics: Detection and Mitigation Strategies Workshop in Bethesda, MD, USA; December 1-3, 2010 Guest Editors: Arifa Khan (Bethesda, MD), Patricia Hughes (Bethesda, MD) and Michael Wiebe (San Francisco, CA) Viral contamination of biotech product facilities is a potentially devastating manufacturing risk and, unfortunately, is more common than is generally reported or previously appreciated. Although viral contaminants of biotech products are thought to originate principally from biological raw materials, all potential process risks merit evaluation. Limitations to existing methods for virus detection are becoming evident as emerging viruses have contaminated facilities and disrupted supplies of critical products. New technologies, such as broad-based polymerase chain reaction screens for multiple virus types, are increasingly becoming available to detect adventitious viral contamination and thus, mitigate risks to biotech products and processes. Further, the industry embrace of quality risk management that promotes improvements in testing stratagems, enhanced viral inactivation methods for raw materials, implementation and standardization of robust viral clearance procedures, and efforts to learn from both epidemiologic screening of raw material sources and from the experience of other manufacturers with regard to this problem will serve to enhance the safety of biotech products available to patients. Based on this evolving landscape, we propose a set of principles for manufacturers of biotech products: Pillars of Risk Mitigation for Viral Contamination of Biotech Products.

  2. Organic amendments for risk mitigation of organochlorine pesticide residues in old orchard soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Centofanti, Tiziana; McConnell, Laura L.; Chaney, Rufus L.; Beyer, W. Nelson; Andrade, Natasha A.; Hapeman, Cathleen J.; Torrents, Alba; Nguyen, Anh; Anderson, Marya O.; Novak, Jeffrey M.

    2016-01-01

    Performance of compost and biochar amendments for in situ risk mitigation of aged DDT, DDE and dieldrin residues in an old orchard soil was examined. The change in bioavailability of pesticide residues to Lumbricus terrestris L. relative to the unamended control soil was assessed using 4-L soil microcosms with and without plant cover in a 48-day experiment. The use of aged dairy manure compost and biosolids compost was found to be effective, especially in the planted treatments, at lowering the bioavailability factor (BAF) by 18–39%; however, BAF results for DDT in the unplanted soil treatments were unaffected or increased. The pine chip biochar utilized in this experiment was ineffective at lower the BAF of pesticides in the soil. The US EPA Soil Screening Level approach was used with our measured values. Addition of 10% of the aged dairy manure compost reduced the average hazard quotient values to below 1.0 for DDT + DDE and dieldrin. Results indicate this sustainable approach is appropriate to minimize risks to wildlife in areas of marginal organochlorine pesticide contamination. Application of this remediation approach has potential for use internationally in areas where historical pesticide contamination of soils remains a threat to wildlife populations. - Highlights: • Historical applications of organochlorine pesticides are a risk to local ecosystems. • Low cost and sustainable mitigation measures are needed to reduce risks. • Organic matter rich amendments were added to contaminated soil. • Earthworms microcosms were used to measure bioaccumulation factors. • Aged composts were most effective at mitigating risks to ecosystems. - Incorporation of aged dairy manure and biosolids compost amendments is an effective, low cost approach to mitigate risks to terrestrial wildlife from organochlorine pesticides in soils.

  3. [Guidance of FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy and enlightenment to drug risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming

    2011-10-01

    The FDA risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) aims to drugs or biological products known or potential serious risk management. Analysis with the example of the content of the Onsolis REMS named FOCOS. Our country can be reference for the analysis of relevant experience and establish a scientific evaluation mechanism, strengthen the drug risk consciousness, promote the rational drug use, organic combined with the before-marketing and post-marketing evaluation of traditional Chinese medicine, and promote the evaluation of risk management of the drug development and improvement.

  4. Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall: Dam Mitigate Flood Risk in Mekong

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Wei [Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Wuhan China; Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Lu, Hui [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Li, Hong-Yi [Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences and Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman MT USA; Zhao, Jianshi [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Tian, Fuqiang [State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Yang, Kun [Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing China; Sothea, Khem [Mekong Institute of Cambodia, Phnom Penh Cambodia

    2017-10-25

    Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. A large scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-MK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the MRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, dam construction and stream regulation reduce flood risk consistently throughout this century, with more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.

  5. Influence of behavioral biases on the assessment of multi-hazard risks and the implementation of multi-hazard risks mitigation measures: case study of multi-hazard cyclone shelters in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komendantova, Nadejda; Patt, Anthony

    2013-04-01

    construction of cyclone shelters was being undertaken. The availability heuristics caused a perception of low probability of tsunami following an earthquake, as the last large similar event happened over a hundred years ago. Another led to a situation when decisions were taken on the basis of experience and not statistical evidence, namely, experience showed that the so-called "Ring of Fire" generates underground earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Ocean. This knowledge made decision-makers to neglect the numerical estimations about probability of underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean even though seismologists were warning about probability of a large underground earthquake in the Indian Ocean. The bounded rationality bias led to misperception of signals from the early warning center in the Pacific Ocean. The resulting limited concern resulted in risk mitigation measures that considered cyclone risks, but much less about tsunami. Under loss aversion considerations, the decision-makers perceived the losses connected with the necessary additional investment as being greater than benefits from mitigating a less probable hazard.

  6. [Socio-psychological and ecological aspects within the system of nuclear radiation risk mitigation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davydov, B I; Ushakov, I B; Zuev, V G

    2004-01-01

    The authors bring into light several aspects of nuclear radiation risks, i.e. physical safety of nuclear technologies and ecology, place of operator within the nuclear radiation safety system (proficiency, protective culture, safety guides) and consider approaches to the human factor quantification within the system of mitigation of risks from nuclear technologies, and IAEA recommendations on probable risk estimation. Future investigations should be aimed at extension of the radiation sensitivity threshold, personnel selection as by psychological so genetic testing for immunity to ionizing radiation, development of pharmachemical and physical protectors and methods of enhancing nonspecific resistance to extreme, including radiation, environments, and building of radiation event simulators for training.

  7. “Shake, Rattle and Roll”: risk assessment and management for food safety during two Christchurch earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sally Johnston

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Problem: Two earthquakes recently struck the Christchurch region. The 2010 earthquake in Canterbury was strong yet sustained less damage than the 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, which although not as strong, was more damaging and resulted in 185 deaths. Both required activation of a food safety response.Context: The food safety response for both earthquakes was focused on reducing the risk of gastroenteritis by limiting the use of contaminated water and food, both in households and food businesses. Additional food safety risks were identified in the 2011 Christchurch earthquake due the use of large-scale catering for rescue workers, volunteers and residents unable to return home.Action: Using a risk assessment framework, the food safety response involved providing water and food safety advice, issuing a boil water notice for the region and initiating water testing on reticulation systems. Food businesses were contacted to ensure the necessary measures were being taken. Additional action during the 2011 Christchurch earthquake response included making contact with food businesses using checklists and principles developed in the first response and having regular contact with those providing catering for large numbers.Outcome: In the 2010 earthquake in Canterbury, several cases of gastroenteritis were reported, although most resulted from person-to-person contact rather than contamination of food. There was a small increase in gastroenteritis cases following the 2011 Christchurch earthquake.Discussion: The food safety response for both earthquakes was successful in meeting the goal of ensuring that foodborne illness did not put additional pressure on hospitals or affect search and rescue efforts.

  8. Risk-based cost-benefit analysis for evaluating microbial risk mitigation in a drinking water system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergion, Viktor; Lindhe, Andreas; Sokolova, Ekaterina; Rosén, Lars

    2018-04-01

    Waterborne outbreaks of gastrointestinal diseases can cause large costs to society. Risk management needs to be holistic and transparent in order to reduce these risks in an effective manner. Microbial risk mitigation measures in a drinking water system were investigated using a novel approach combining probabilistic risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Lake Vomb in Sweden was used to exemplify and illustrate the risk-based decision model. Four mitigation alternatives were compared, where the first three alternatives, A1-A3, represented connecting 25, 50 and 75%, respectively, of on-site wastewater treatment systems in the catchment to the municipal wastewater treatment plant. The fourth alternative, A4, represented installing a UV-disinfection unit in the drinking water treatment plant. Quantitative microbial risk assessment was used to estimate the positive health effects in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALYs), resulting from the four mitigation alternatives. The health benefits were monetised using a unit cost per QALY. For each mitigation alternative, the net present value of health and environmental benefits and investment, maintenance and running costs was calculated. The results showed that only A4 can reduce the risk (probability of infection) below the World Health Organization guidelines of 10 -4 infections per person per year (looking at the 95th percentile). Furthermore, all alternatives resulted in a negative net present value. However, the net present value would be positive (looking at the 50 th percentile using a 1% discount rate) if non-monetised benefits (e.g. increased property value divided evenly over the studied time horizon and reduced microbial risks posed to animals), estimated at 800-1200 SEK (€100-150) per connected on-site wastewater treatment system per year, were included. This risk-based decision model creates a robust and transparent decision support tool. It is flexible enough to be tailored and applied to local

  9. Time-explicit methods for joint economical and geological risk mitigation in production optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Capolei, Andrea; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    Real-life applications of production optimization face challenges of risks related to unpredictable fluctuations in oil prices and sparse geological data. Consequently, operating companies are reluctant to adopt model-based production optimization into their operations. Conventional production...... of mitigating economical and geological risks. As opposed to conventional strategies that focus on a single long-term objective, TE methods seek to reduce risks and promote returns over the entire reservoir life by optimization of a given ensemble-based geological risk measure over time. By explicit involvement...... of time, economical risks are implicitly addressed by balancing short-term and long-term objectives throughout the reservoir life. Open-loop simulations of a two-phase synthetic reservoir demonstrate that TE methods may significantly improve short-term risk measures such as expected return, standard...

  10. Earthquake and volcanic risks: issues for the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solidum, Dr. Renato U.

    2009-01-01

    The proposed re-commissioning of the mothballed Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) has raised objections that include the perceived unsafe siting of the BNPP on Mt. Natib, a potentially active volcano, in an earthquake-prone region. This concern must be evaluated through thorough seismological, paleo-seismic, volcanological and engineering studies. The BNPP sits on Napot Point on the southwest foot slope of Mt. Natib, an andesitic to dacitic stratovolcano just 30 kms south of Mt. Pinatubo. Natib's evolution is poorly known, but involved at least 3 explosive summit eruptions that formed a 6 km-diameter coalescent caldera and a younger 2-km diameter caldera. Pyroclastic flows define the cone surface, and available age dating includes a ±27 ka 14C age for a deposit on the eastern flanks and an 11-18 ka relative dating for suspected pyroclastic deposits in Subic Bay (1). Whether these represent the most recent eruptions is uncertain. A detailed magmatic/eruptive history defining magmatic recharge and eruption recurrence rates, from which probabilities for future eruptive activity can be analyzed, will be necessary for quantifying volcanic risk. Furthermore, Natib,Pinatubo and adjacent Mariveles are part of the Luzon Arc and associated with ongoing subduction along the Manila Trench. Subduction earthquakes are common, but apart from these, seismic risk is also being attributted to tectonic structures inland that include reported on site faults inferred from drilling, basin faults seen in reflection profiles (1), the Subic Bay Fault Zone delineated by magmatic studies (2) and various lineaments inferred from satellite imageries. These, plus seismicity in the region are being argued as indicators of earthquake threat. However, much emphasis is given maximum seismic magnitudes rather than peak ground accelerations (PGAs), epicentral rather than focal sources,and the inference of faults/lineaments rather than paleoseismic evidence of recent faulting. Paleoseismic studies of

  11. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on the mycophenolic acid preparations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostas, Sara; Kim, Miae; Gabardi, Steven

    2014-03-01

    To review risks associated with mycophenolic acid (MPA) preparations and evaluate their required risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) elements. Articles were identified through a non-date-limited MEDLINE and EMBASE search using the terms fetal toxicity, teratogenicity, risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, MPA, mycophenolate mofetil, entericcoated MPA, and organ transplant. Information from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the manufacturers of the MPA preparations was also evaluated. The MPA preparations are associated with several potential risks, including gastrointestinal disturbances and myelosuppression; however, their impact on the fetus in pregnant patients taking 1 of these agents poses the greatest risk. The FDA approved REMS programs for all MPA products, both innovator and generic preparations, in September 2012. With evidence of increased risk of miscarriage and birth defects associated with MPA use, the FDA instituted a REMS program that contains both a medication guide and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). The medication guides for the MPA products, which were previously FDA approved, should continue to be distributed to patients who get either an initial prescription filled or a refill. The ETASU requires prescribers to complete training and obtain patient signatures on the Patient-Prescriber Acknowledgment Form. A single, national, voluntary pregnancy registry specific to this medication has been established, and pregnant patients should be encouraged to participate. Although the impact of the MPA REMS on clinical practice is not clear, it is a step toward increasing the understanding of fetal risks with MPA.

  12. Greenhouse cultivation mitigates metal-ingestion-associated health risks from vegetables in wastewater-irrigated agroecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cao, Chun [College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu (China); College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu (China); Chen, Xing-Peng; Ma, Zhen-Bang [College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu (China); Jia, Hui-Hui [State High-Tech Industrial Innovation Center, Shenzhen 518057, Guangdong (China); Wang, Jun-Jian, E-mail: junjian.wang@utoronto.ca [Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto M1C 1A4 (Canada)

    2016-08-01

    Wastewater irrigation can elevate metal concentrations in soils and crops and increase the metal-associated health risks via vegetable ingestion in arid and semiarid northwestern China. Here, we investigated the As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations in four vegetable species from Dongdagou and Xidagou farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China. We evaluated the effects of irrigation type (Dongdagou: industrial wastewater; Xidagou: domestic wastewater) and cultivation mode (open field and greenhouse) on the vegetable metal concentration, metal partitioning, soil-to-plant bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the health risk index. All stream waters, soils, and vegetables were found most severely polluted by As and Cd, with higher severity in the industrial-wastewater-irrigated Dongdagou than the domestic-wastewater-irrigated Xidagou. All vegetables had higher or, at least, comparable metal mass allocated in the shoot than in the root. Greenhouse cultivation could reduce metal-ingestion-associated health risks from edible vegetable biomass by decreasing the soil to plant bioaccumulation (BCF) and the metal concentration. This effect was always significant for all vegetables within Xidagou, and for carrot within Dongdagou. This mitigation effect of greenhouse cultivation could be attributed to the metal sorption by a higher level of soil organic matter and faster growth rate over metal uptake rate in greenhouses compared to open fields. Such mitigation effect was, however, insignificant for leafy vegetables within Dongdagou, when much more severely polluted water for irrigation was applied in greenhouses compared to open fields within Dongdagou. The present study highlights greenhouse cultivation as a potential mitigating approach to providing less-polluted vegetables for residents in the severely polluted area in addition to the source pollution control. - Highlights: • Vegetable farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China were severely polluted by As and Cd. • Greenhouses had

  13. Greenhouse cultivation mitigates metal-ingestion-associated health risks from vegetables in wastewater-irrigated agroecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Chun; Chen, Xing-Peng; Ma, Zhen-Bang; Jia, Hui-Hui; Wang, Jun-Jian

    2016-01-01

    Wastewater irrigation can elevate metal concentrations in soils and crops and increase the metal-associated health risks via vegetable ingestion in arid and semiarid northwestern China. Here, we investigated the As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn concentrations in four vegetable species from Dongdagou and Xidagou farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China. We evaluated the effects of irrigation type (Dongdagou: industrial wastewater; Xidagou: domestic wastewater) and cultivation mode (open field and greenhouse) on the vegetable metal concentration, metal partitioning, soil-to-plant bioconcentration factor (BCF), and the health risk index. All stream waters, soils, and vegetables were found most severely polluted by As and Cd, with higher severity in the industrial-wastewater-irrigated Dongdagou than the domestic-wastewater-irrigated Xidagou. All vegetables had higher or, at least, comparable metal mass allocated in the shoot than in the root. Greenhouse cultivation could reduce metal-ingestion-associated health risks from edible vegetable biomass by decreasing the soil to plant bioaccumulation (BCF) and the metal concentration. This effect was always significant for all vegetables within Xidagou, and for carrot within Dongdagou. This mitigation effect of greenhouse cultivation could be attributed to the metal sorption by a higher level of soil organic matter and faster growth rate over metal uptake rate in greenhouses compared to open fields. Such mitigation effect was, however, insignificant for leafy vegetables within Dongdagou, when much more severely polluted water for irrigation was applied in greenhouses compared to open fields within Dongdagou. The present study highlights greenhouse cultivation as a potential mitigating approach to providing less-polluted vegetables for residents in the severely polluted area in addition to the source pollution control. - Highlights: • Vegetable farmlands in Baiyin, Gansu, China were severely polluted by As and Cd. • Greenhouses had

  14. Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlock, Kate M.

    2011-01-01

    Lessons Learne: 1. Design-out unnecessary risk to prevent excessive mitigation management during flight. 2. Consider iterative checkouts to confirm or improve human factor characteristics. 3. Consider the total flight test profile to uncover unanticipated human-algorithm interactions. 4. Consider test card cadence as a metric to assess test readiness. 5. Full-scale flight test is critical to development, maturation, and acceptance of adaptive control laws for operational use.

  15. Project management best practices: forging win-win partnerships and mitigating power project risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trowsdale, R.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses aspects of project management to mitigate power project risk. end-to-end project development involves development phase, permitting phase, implementation phase, and operational phase. Each phase involves a number of different elements. In renewable energy project good management requires maintaining project discipline and schedule throughout all phases. Project success requires commercial competitiveness, fuel availability, power sales contracts, stake holder support, permitting, effective execution, construction and good technical performance

  16. LOD BIM Element specification for Railway Turnout Systems Risk Mitigation using the Information Delivery Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigante-Barrera, Ángel; Dindar, Serdar; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat; Ruikar, Darshan

    2017-10-01

    Railway turnouts are complex systems designed using complex geometries and grades which makes them difficult to be managed in terms of risk prevention. This feature poses a substantial peril to rail users as it is considered a cause of derailment. In addition, derailment deals to financial losses due to operational downtimes and monetary compensations in case of death or injure. These are fundamental drivers to consider mitigating risks arising from poor risk management during design. Prevention through design (PtD) is a process that introduces tacit knowledge from industry professionals during the design process. There is evidence that Building Information Modelling (BIM) can help to mitigate risk since the inception of the project. BIM is considered an Information System (IS) were tacit knowledge can be stored and retrieved from a digital database making easy to take promptly decisions as information is ready to be analysed. BIM at the model element level entails working with 3D elements and embedded data, therefore adding a layer of complexity to the management of information along the different stages of the project and across different disciplines. In order to overcome this problem, the industry has created a framework for model progression specification named Level of Development (LOD). The paper presents an IDM based framework for design risk mitigation through code validation using the LOD. This effort resulted on risk datasets which describe graphically and non-graphically a rail turnout as the model progresses. Thus, permitting its inclusion within risk information systems. The assignment of an LOD construct to a set of data, requires specialised management and process related expertise. Furthermore, the selection of a set of LOD constructs requires a purpose based analysis. Therefore, a framework for LOD constructs implementation within the IDM for code checking is required for the industry to progress in this particular field.

  17. Public perception of risks from nuclear power plants in Japan, before the Great East Japan Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murayama, Rumiko; Nakaune, Naoko; Kishikawa, Hiroki; Uchiyama, Iwao

    2011-01-01

    On this research we aim to clarify public perception of risks from nuclear power plants before the Great East Japan Earthquake. The findings of the questionnaire survey conducted in 2010 showed that 1) about 70% of the people felt that they gained benefit from nuclear power plants and these were needed for their daily life. 2) Fifty percent respondents recognized there was danger to themselves and their family members with regards to nuclear power plants. The risks of nuclear power plants to Japanese society ware estimated higher than that risk to individuals of Japanese public. 3) Perception of risks from nuclear power plants to individual Japanese tended to be slightly lower between 1999 and 2010. (author)

  18. Outreach Programs, Peer Pressure, and Common Sense: What Motivates Homeowners to Mitigate Wildfire Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Stidham, Melanie; Toman, Eric; Shindler, Bruce

    2011-09-01

    In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes homeowners more or less willing to take action. The research presented here comes from a study that interviewed a total of 198 homeowners in six communities in the western United States about the activities they had undertaken to mitigate their fire risk, the factors that contributed to their decisions, and their future intentions. The current paper reports on findings from the first half of the longitudinal study, after 3 years we will return to interview the current homeowner on the same properties to assess maintenance actions and facilitating and limiting factors. Overall we found a body of individuals who understand the fire risk, are taking numerous mitigation actions, and think that these actions have reduced their risk. These homeowners typically did not expect the government to do it for them: they wanted information about what to do and, in some cases, assistance with the work, but saw taking care of their property primarily as their responsibility. Responses also show that key information sources and motivating factors vary by location and that it is not inherently necessary to have relationships between community members to create defensible space.

  19. A multiple stage approach to mitigate the risks of telecommunication equipment under free air cooling conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dai Jun; Das, Diganta; Pecht, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Analyze the challenges posed by free air cooling (FAC). ► Present a multi-stage process to mitigate the risks of FAC. ► Propose a prognostics-based method to mitigate risks in data centers in operation. ► Present a case study to show the prognostics-based method implementation. - Abstract: The telecommunication industry is concerned about the energy costs of its operating infrastructure and the associated greenhouse gas emissions. At present, more than half of the total energy consumption of data centers is devoted to the power and cooling infrastructure that supports electronic equipment. One method of reducing energy consumption is an approach called “free air cooling,” where ambient air is used to cool the equipment directly, thereby reducing the energy consumed in cooling and conditioning the air. For example, Intel demonstrated free air cooling in a 10-megawatt (MW) data center, showing a reduction in energy use and savings of US$2.87 million annually. However, the impacts of this approach on the performance and reliability of telecommunication equipment need to be identified. The implementation of free air cooling changes the operating environment, including temperature and humidity, which may have a significant impact on the performance and reliability of telecom equipment. This paper discusses the challenges posed by free air cooling and presents a multi-stage process for evaluating and mitigating the potential risks arising from this new operating environment.

  20. High Center Volume Does Not Mitigate Risk Associated with Using High Donor Risk Organs in Liver Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beal, Eliza W; Black, Sylvester M; Mumtaz, Khalid; Hayes, Don; El-Hinnawi, Ashraf; Washburn, Kenneth; Tumin, Dmitry

    2017-09-01

    High-risk donor allografts increase access to liver transplant, but potentially reduce patient and graft survival. It is unclear whether the risk associated with using marginal donor livers is mitigated by increasing center experience. The United Network for Organ Sharing registry was queried for adult first-time liver transplant recipients between 2/2002 and 12/2015. High donor risk was defined as donor risk index >1.9, and 1-year patient and graft survival were compared according to donor risk index in small and large centers. Multivariable Cox regression estimated the hazard ratio (HR) associated with using high-risk donor organs, according to a continuous measure of annual center volume. The analysis included 51,770 patients. In 67 small and 67 large centers, high donor risk index predicted increased mortality (p = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, high-donor risk index allografts predicted greater mortality hazard at centers performing 20 liver transplants per year (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.22, 1.49; p donor risk index and center volume was not statistically significant (p = 0.747), confirming that the risk associated with using marginal donor livers was comparable between smaller and larger centers. Results were consistent when examining graft loss. At both small and large centers, high-risk donor allografts were associated with reduced patient and graft survival after liver transplant. Specific strategies to mitigate the risk of liver transplant involving high-risk donors are needed, in addition to accumulation of center expertise.

  1. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  2. Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kok, Jean-Luc; Grossmann, M.

    2010-01-01

    The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river. We present an example of a rapid flood risk

  3. Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

    2010-05-01

    population in the daily cycle to re-assess exposure to earthquake hazard in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, home to almost three million people. New high-resolution (50 m grids) daytime and nighttime population distribution maps are developed using dasymetric mapping. The modeling approach uses areal interpolation to combine best-available census data and statistics with land use and land cover data. Mobility statistics are considered for mapping daytime distribution, and empirical parameters used for interpolation are obtained from a previous effort in high resolution population mapping of part of the study area. Finally, the population distribution maps are combined with the Seismic Hazard Intensity map to: (1) quantify and compare human exposure to seismic intensity levels in the daytime and nighttime periods, and (2) derive nighttime and daytime overall Earthquake Risk maps. This novel approach yields previously unavailable spatio-temporal population distribution information for the study area, enabling refined and more accurate earthquake risk mapping and assessment. Additionally, such population exposure datasets can be combined with different hazard maps to improve spatio-temporal assessment and risk mapping for any type of hazard, natural or man-made. We believe this improved characterization of vulnerability and risk can benefit all phases of the disaster management process where human exposure has to be considered, namely in emergency planning, risk mitigation, preparedness, and response to an event.

  4. Considerations on comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation planning of volcanic ash-fall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toshida, Kiyoshi

    2010-01-01

    Volcanic ash-fall is inevitable hazard throughout Japan, and causes wide range of effects due to its physical and chemical properties. Nuclear power plants in Japan face the necessity to assess the risk from volcanic ash-fall. Risk assessment of the volcanic ash-fall should include engineering solution and mitigation planning as well as the ash-fall hazard. This report points out the characteristics for reducing the various effects of volcanic ash-fall as follows. Large-scale eruptions produce prominent volcanic ash-falls that can approach power plants at a great distance. Aftermath hazards of ash-fall events, such as remobilization of fine ash particles and generation of lahars, require further assessments. The kind and extent of damages becomes greater whenever ash is wet. Wet ash requires separate assessments in contrast to dry ash. The mitigation and recovery measures at power plants involve quick cleanup operations of volcanic ash. Those operations should be prepared through comprehensive risk assessment, and by cooperation with authorities, during pre-eruption repose period. The comprehensive assessment for volcanic ash-fall hazards, however, has yet to be conducted. Development of risk communication method may result in increased implementation mitigation planning. Numerical analysis of the ash-fall hazards provides quantitative data on particle motions that can be used in the risk assessment. In order to implement the quantitative assessment method, the verification on the effect of ambient air condition to the altitude of volcanic ash cloud is necessary. We need to develop a three-dimensional model of volcanic ash cloud, and calculate motions of ash clouds under multiple conditions of ambient air. (author)

  5. Quantification of flood risk mitigation benefits: A building-scale damage assessment through the RASOR platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrighi, Chiara; Rossi, Lauro; Trasforini, Eva; Rudari, Roberto; Ferraris, Luca; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Castelli, Fabio

    2018-02-01

    Flood risk mitigation usually requires a significant investment of public resources and cost-effectiveness should be ensured. The assessment of the benefits of hydraulic works requires the quantification of (i) flood risk in absence of measures, (ii) risk in presence of mitigation works, (iii) investments to achieve acceptable residual risk. In this work a building-scale is adopted to estimate direct tangible flood losses to several building classes (e.g. residential, industrial, commercial, etc.) and respective contents, exploiting various sources of public open data in a GIS environment. The impact simulations for assigned flood hazard scenarios are computed through the RASOR platform which allows for an extensive characterization of the properties and their vulnerability through libraries of stage-damage curves. Recovery and replacement costs are estimated based on insurance data, market values and socio-economic proxies. The methodology is applied to the case study of Florence (Italy) where a system of retention basins upstream of the city is under construction to reduce flood risk. Current flood risk in the study area (70 km 2 ) is about 170 Mio euros per year without accounting for people, infrastructures, cultural heritage and vehicles at risk. The monetary investment in the retention basins is paid off in about 5 years. However, the results show that although hydraulic works are cost-effective, a significant residual risk has to be managed and the achievement of the desired level of acceptable risk would require about 1 billion euros of investments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Patient-stated preferences regarding volume-related risk mitigation strategies for hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flythe, Jennifer E; Mangione, Thomas W; Brunelli, Steven M; Curhan, Gary C

    2014-08-07

    Larger weight gain and higher ultrafiltration rates have been associated with poorer outcomes among patients on dialysis. Dietary restrictions reduce fluid-related risk; however, adherence is challenging. Alternative fluid mitigation strategies include treatment time extension, more frequent dialysis, adjunct peritoneal dialysis, and wearable ultrafiltration devices. No data regarding patient preferences for fluid management exist. A survey was designed, tested, and administered to assess patient-stated preferences regarding fluid mitigation. A written survey concerning fluid-related symptoms, patient and treatment characteristics, and fluid management preferences was developed. The cross-sectional survey was completed by 600 patients on hemodialysis at 18 geographically diverse ambulatory facilities. Comparisons of patient willingness to engage in volume mitigation strategies across fluid symptom burden, dietary restriction experience, and patient characteristics were performed. Final analyses included 588 surveys. Overall, if allowed to liberalize fluid intake, 44.6% of patients were willing to extend treatment time by 15 minutes. Willingness to extend treatment time was incrementally less for longer treatment extensions; 12.2% of patients were willing to add a fourth weekly treatment session, and 13.5% of patients were willing to participate in nocturnal dialysis three nights per week. Patients more bothered by their fluid restrictions (versus less bothered) were more willing to engage in fluid mitigation strategies. Demographic characteristics and symptoms, such as cramping and dyspnea, were not consistently associated with willingness to engage in the proposed strategies. More than 25% of patients were unsure of their dry weights and typical interdialytic weight gains. Patients were generally averse to treatment time extension>15 minutes. Patients more bothered (versus less bothered) by their prescribed fluid restrictions were more willing to engage in volume

  7. An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bokan, S.

    2009-01-01

    CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

  8. Design and implementation of a voluntary collective earthquake insurance policy to cover low-income homeowners in a developing country

    OpenAIRE

    Marulanda, M.; Cardona, O.; Mora, Miguel; Barbat, Alex

    2018-01-01

    Understanding and evaluating disaster risk due to natural hazard events such as earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. The use of models for earthquake risk evaluation allows obtaining outputs such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, which are probabilistic metrics useful for risk analyses, for designing strategies for risk reduction and mitigation, for emergency...

  9. Stigma in science: the case of earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joffe, Helene; Rossetto, Tiziana; Bradley, Caroline; O'Connor, Cliodhna

    2018-01-01

    This paper explores how earthquake scientists conceptualise earthquake prediction, particularly given the conviction of six earthquake scientists for manslaughter (subsequently overturned) on 22 October 2012 for having given inappropriate advice to the public prior to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009. In the first study of its kind, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 earthquake scientists and the transcribed interviews were analysed thematically. The scientists primarily denigrated earthquake prediction, showing strong emotive responses and distancing themselves from earthquake 'prediction' in favour of 'forecasting'. Earthquake prediction was regarded as impossible and harmful. The stigmatisation of the subject is discussed in the light of research on boundary work and stigma in science. The evaluation reveals how mitigation becomes the more favoured endeavour, creating a normative environment that disadvantages those who continue to pursue earthquake prediction research. Recommendations are made for communication with the public on earthquake risk, with a focus on how scientists portray uncertainty. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

  10. Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical Settings: Disease Transmission Risk and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    INVITED ARTICLE James M. Hughes and Mary E. Wilson, Section Editors Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical...for risk mitigation. Few data on the epidemiology of infectious diseases occurring among traveling health care workers (HCWs) exist. Surveillance... Health Care Workers and Researchers Traveling to Developing-World Clinical Settings: Disease Transmission Risk and Mitigation 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b

  11. Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

  12. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on the mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven

    2013-03-01

    To review the history of risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) with the mammalian target of rapamycin (mToR) inhibitors, evaluate their required REMS elements, and delineate the reasons for them being released from their REMS requirements. Articles were identified through a literature search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007-July 2012) using the search terms: risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, everolimus, sirolimus and organ transplant (individual organs also were searched). Information from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturers of the mToR inhibitors was also evaluated. REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product. The mToR inhibitors have been associated with several potential risks, including proteinuria, graft thrombosis, and wound-healing complications. The Food and Drug Administration approved REMS programs for both sirolimus and everolimus. The manufacturers of both medications complied with the components of their approved REMS, but after less than 2 years, both medications have been relieved of their REMS obligations. The only element of the sirolimus REMS was a medication guide, whereas the everolimus REMS consisted of a medication guide and a communication plan. The sirolimus REMS was implemented more than 10 years after its initial approval by the Food and Drug Administration, but was released from its REMS requirement within 7 months of its implementation. The everolimus REMS was instituted upon initial approval and was removed approximately 2 years later. Both medications' REMS were always intended to educate health care providers and patients about the potential risks associated with this transplant immunosuppressant. Transplant practitioners should be familiar with the mToR inhibitors' associated risks and properly educate patients regarding the

  13. Assessment of risks of loose landslide deposits formed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, S.; Zhang, L. M.; Peng, M.; Zhang, L. L.; Zhao, H. F.; Chen, H. X.

    2012-05-01

    A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based quantitative risk assessment methodology was adopted to evaluate the risks of loose deposits formed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake along a highway near the epicenter. A total of 305 loose deposits with a total volume of 4.0 × 107 m3 has been identified. A physical model was used to determine the failure probability of these loose deposits under six rainfall scenarios, assuming the loose deposits as infinite slopes. The calculated probability of rain-induced slope failures is verified by the recorded landslides at the same site during a storm in 2010. Seventy-nine out of the 112 rain-induced loose deposit failures are predicted by the reliability analysis, with an accuracy of 71%. The results of reliability analysis and information on the consequence of these rain-induced landslides enable the estimation of the annual societal and individual risks of the loose deposits. Under the rainfall scenarios of 30 mm/12 h and 70 mm/12 h, the estimated annual societal risks reach 8.8 and 7.5, respectively, and the individual risks reach 0.05 and 0.04, respectively, which are very high compared with present risk acceptance criteria. The preliminary assessment provides a benchmark for studying the long-term risks of these loose deposits and engineering decision.

  14. Earthquake and Tsunami: a movie and a book for seismic and tsunami risk reduction in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nostro, C.; Baroux, E.; Maramai, A.; Graziani, L.; Tertulliani, A.; Castellano, C.; Arcoraci, L.; Casale, P.; Ciaccio, M. G.; Frepoli, A.

    2009-04-01

    Italy is a country well known for the seismic and volcanic hazard. However, a similarly great hazard, although not well recognized, is posed by the occurrence of tsunami waves along the Italian coastline. This is testified by a rich catalogue and by field evidence of deposits left over by pre- and historical tsunamis, even in places today considered safe. This observation is of great importance since many of the areas affected by tsunamis in the past are today touristic places. The Italian tsunamis can be caused by different sources: 1- off-shore or near coast in-land earthquakes; 2- very large earthquakes on distant sources in the Mediterranean; 3- submarine volcanic explosion in the Tyrrhenian sea; 4- submarine landslides triggered by earthquakes and volcanic activity. The consequence of such a wide spectrum of sources is that an important part of the more than 7000 km long Italian coast line is exposed to the tsunami risk, and thousands of inhabitants (with numbers increasing during summer) live near hazardous coasts. The main historical tsunamis are the 1783 and 1908 events that hit Calabrian and Sicilian coasts. The recent tsunami is that caused by the 2002 Stromboli landslide. In order to reduce this risk and following the emotional impact of the December 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami, we developed an outreach program consisting in talks given by scientists and in a movie and a book, both exploring the causes of the tsunami waves, how do they propagate in deep and shallow waters, and what are the effects on the coasts. Hints are also given on the most dangerous Italian coasts (as deduced by scientific studies), and how to behave in the case of a tsunami approaching the coast. These seminars are open to the general public, but special programs are developed with schools of all grades. In this talk we want to present the book and the movie used during the seminars and scientific expositions, that was realized from a previous 3D version originally

  15. Incentives for Ex Ante wildfire risk mitigation in the wildland-urban interface: The relationship between contingent wildfire insurance and fuel management subsidies

    OpenAIRE

    Lankoande, Mariam D.; Yoder, Jonathan K.; Wandschneider, Philip R.

    2006-01-01

    Contingent wildfire insurance and fuel management cost-sharing programs are becoming more prevalent in western states. This paper develops a model to examine the incentive effects of these two mechanisms for private investment in wildfire risk mitigation. The model shows that contingent insurance contracts strengthen incentives for risk mitigation relative to pooled contracts and subsidies induce more risk mitigation effort by reducing margin private costs of mitigation. With pooled insurance...

  16. Posttraumatic stress disorder and posttraumatic growth coexistence and the risk factors in Wenchuan earthquake survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhibin; Xu, Jiuping; Sui, Yan

    2016-03-30

    Various studies have assessed the negative and/or positive changes in the aftermath of traumatic events. Yet few of these have addressed the factors associated with the coexistence of both negative and positive changes after a devastating earthquake. The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between the negative and positive changes and elucidate the risk factors of such changes one year after Wenchuan earthquake. A total of 2080 survivors from 19 counties participated in a self-report questionnaire survey which included the posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) Check list-Civilian, the posttraumatic growth PTG Inventory (PTGI). The prevalence of PTSD and moderate PTG was found to be 40.1% (95% CI [37.9% 42.3%]) and 51.1% (95% CI [48.9% 53.3%]). The PTSD and moderate PTG coexistence was 19.6% (95% CI [17.8% 21.4%]). PTSD symptom severity was significantly positively associated with the PTG score. Middle aged groups (31-40 and 41-50 years old, OR=2.323, 95% CI [1.059, 5.095] and OR=2.410, 95% CI [1.090, 5.329] respectively), those with lower income levels (OR=8.019, 95% CI [2.421, 26.558]), those living in temporary house (OR=1.946, 95% CI [1.280, 2.956]), and those who had had less social support (OR=1.109, 95% CI [1.076, 1.143]) had a significantly higher possibility for the presence of PTSD and moderate PTG coexistence. The results indicated the widespread positive changes in earthquake survivors. Better income levels and living conditions and higher social support were suggested to promote PTG in those with PTSD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

  18. Maneuver Planning for Conjunction Risk Mitigation with Ground-track Control Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinley, David

    2008-01-01

    The planning of conjunction Risk Mitigation Maneuvers (RMM) in the presence of ground-track control requirements is analyzed. Past RMM planning efforts on the Aqua, Aura, and Terra spacecraft have demonstrated that only small maneuvers are available when ground-track control requirements are maintained. Assuming small maneuvers, analytical expressions for the effect of a given maneuver on conjunction geometry are derived. The analytical expressions are used to generate a large trade space for initial RMM design. This trade space represents a significant improvement in initial maneuver planning over existing methods that employ high fidelity maneuver models and propagation.

  19. Risk mitigation of shared electronic records system in campus institutions: medical social work practice in singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ow Yong, Lai Meng; Tan, Amanda Wei Li; Loo, Cecilia Lay Keng; Lim, Esther Li Ping

    2014-10-01

    In 2013, the Singapore General Hospital (SGH) Campus initiated a shared electronic system where patient records and documentations were standardized and shared across institutions within the Campus. The project was initiated to enhance quality of health care, improve accessibility, and ensure integrated (as opposed to fragmented) care for best outcomes in our patients. In mitigating the risks of ICT, it was found that familiarity with guiding ethical principles, and ensuring adherence to regulatory and technical competencies in medical social work were important. The need to negotiate and maneuver in a large environment within the Campus to ensure proactive integrative process helped.

  20. Trajectory Design to Mitigate Risk on the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dichmann, Donald

    2016-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several orbit constraints. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and to optimize nominal trajectories, check constraint satisfaction, and finally model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

  1. Preventable and mitigable adverse events in cancer care: Measuring risk and harm across the continuum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipitz-Snyderman, Allison; Pfister, David; Classen, David; Atoria, Coral L; Killen, Aileen; Epstein, Andrew S; Anderson, Christopher; Fortier, Elizabeth; Weingart, Saul N

    2017-12-01

    Patient safety is a critical concern in clinical oncology, but the ability to measure adverse events (AEs) across cancer care is limited by a narrow focus on treatment-related toxicities. The objective of this study was to assess the nature and extent of AEs among cancer patients across inpatient and outpatient settings. This was a retrospective cohort study of 400 adult patients selected by stratified random sampling who had breast (n = 128), colorectal (n = 136), or lung cancer (n = 136) treated at a comprehensive cancer center in 2012. Candidate AEs, or injuries due to medical care, were identified by trained nurse reviewers over the course of 1 year from medical records and safety-reporting databases. Physicians determined the AE harm severity and the likelihood of preventability and harm mitigation. The 400-patient sample represented 133,358 days of follow-up. Three hundred four AEs were identified for an overall rate of 2.3 events per 1000 patient days (91.2 per 1000 inpatient days and 0.9 per 1000 outpatient days). Thirty-four percent of the patients had 1 or more AEs (95% confidence interval, 29%-39%), and 16% of the patients had 1 or more preventable or mitigable AEs (95% confidence interval, 13%-20%). The AE rate for patients with breast cancer was lower than the rate for patients with colorectal or lung cancer (P ≤ .001). The preventable or mitigable AE rate was 0.9 per 1000 patient days. Six percent of AEs and 4% of preventable AEs resulted in serious harm. Examples included lymphedema, abscess, and renal failure. A heavy burden of AEs, including preventable or mitigable events, has been identified. Future research should examine risk factors and improvement strategies for reducing their burden. Cancer 2017;123:4728-4736. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  2. Report by the 'Mega-earthquakes and mega-tsunamis' subgroup

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friedel, Jacques; Courtillot, Vincent; Dercourt, Jean; Jaupart, Claude; Le Pichon, Xavier; Poirier, Jean-Paul; Salencon, Jean; Tapponnier, Paul; Dautray, Robert; Carpentier, Alain; Taquet, Philippe; Blanchet, Rene; Le Mouel, Jean-Louis; BARD, Pierre-Yves; Bernard, Pascal; Montagner, Jean-Paul; Armijo, Rolando; Shapiro, Nikolai; Tait, Steve; Cara, Michel; Madariaga, Raul; Pecker, Alain; Schindele, Francois; Douglas, John

    2011-06-01

    This report comprises a presentation of scientific data on subduction earthquakes, on tsunamis and on the Tohoku earthquake. It proposes a detailed description of the French situation (in the West Indies, in metropolitan France, and in terms of soil response), and a discussion of social and economic issues (governance, seismic regulation and nuclear safety, para-seismic protection of constructions). The report is completed by other large documents: presentation of data on the Japanese earthquake, discussion on prediction and governance errors in the management of earthquake mitigation in Japan, discussions on tsunami prevention, on needs of research on accelerometers, and on the seismic risk in France

  3. Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisner, B

    2001-09-01

    Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.

  4. HOW MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS USE LOBBYING AND ADVOCACY TO MITIGATE POLITICAL RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Iftinchi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In their international activities multinational corporations (MNCs face various risks. Political risk is one of them. Expropriations, transfer and convertibility restrictions, breach of contracts, acts of terrorism, domestic political violence or other adverse regulatory changes and/or negative government action represent forms of political risks. Incorporating political risk in their risk management strategies becomes a necessity for MNCs in their search for profits and new markets. This article presents how MNCs use lobbying and advocacy as means to engage with governments and politicians in the country of origin (home country, in the country where a MNC has operations (host country or at international level (by creating ties with international organisations in order to mitigate political risks. The case of Repsol and its investment in Argentina is used to demonstrate the application of such tools. The article presents two limitations that might determine the success or failure of MNCs’ lobbying and advocacy activities: governments' unpredictable views towards MNCs and reputational risks. The article has also identified a main difficulty in identifying and examining MNCs way of using lobbying and advocacy to engage with government officials and politicians. This difficulty comes from the informal character of such contacts which makes lobbying and advocacy almost impossible to identify.

  5. Mitigating risks associated with Lockout/Tagout (LOTO) of hazardous energy in Nigeria : a tracker approach / E.A. Aghenta.

    OpenAIRE

    Aghenta, Emmanuel Aigbokhaibho

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of the study was to determine the risk(s) associated with lockout/tagout of hazardous energy and propose a new LOTO procedure which tracks the implementation of LOTO to mitigate against identified risks as a basis for promotion of safety. The study focuses on electrical personnel working in PHCN. Only electrical accident risks are examined, not other types of risk e.g. mechanical, chemical, and nuclear. To gather material for this study, a questionnaire was distributed ...

  6. A guide to understanding and implementing risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

    2013-03-01

    To review the components of the Congressional mandate for risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) managed by the Food and Drug Administration and assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplant arena. A non-date-limited search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007-June 2012) was conducted by using the following search terms: risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, and organ transplant, including a query of the individual organs. Information from the Federal Register and the Food and Drug Administration was also evaluated. REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product. Elements of REMS programs may consist of 3 levels: a medication guide, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use. A medication guide is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patients' decision making, and enhance medication adherence. Communication plans help educate health care providers and encourage adherence with REMS. The elements to assure safe use is a restrictive process implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure safe access for patients to products with known serious risks. In transplant medicine, REMS currently exist for belatacept (medication guide and communication plan) and the mycophenolic acid derivatives (medication guide and elements to assure safe use). REMS are another step in the evolution of the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents. Use of REMS in solid-organ transplant is becoming common. Transplant clinicians must provide required patient education and become involved with other aspects of REMS implementation to reduce the serious risks of pharmaceuticals and to improve patients' outcomes.

  7. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Limits on the potential accuracy of earthquake risk evaluations using the L’Aquila (Italy earthquake as an example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Douglas

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article is concerned with attempting to ‘predict’ (hindcast the damage caused by the L’Aquila 2009 earthquake (Mw 6.3 and, more generally, with the question of how close predicted damage can ever be to observations. Damage is hindcast using a well-established empirical-based approach based on vulnerability indices and macroseismic intensities, adjusted for local site effects. Using information that was available before the earthquake and assuming the same event characteristics as the L’Aquila mainshock, the overall damage is reasonably well predicted but there are considerable differences in the damage pattern. To understand the reasons for these differences, information that was only available after the event were include within the calculation. Despite some improvement in the predicted damage, in particularly by the modification of the vulnerability indices and the parameter influencing the width of the damage distribution, these hindcasts do not match all the details of the observations. This is because of local effects: both in terms of the ground shaking, which is only detectable by the installation of a much denser strong-motion network and a detailed microzonation, and in terms of the building vulnerability, which cannot be modeled using a statistical approach but would require detailed analytical modeling for which calibration data are likely to be lacking. Future studies should concentrate on adjusting the generic components of the approach to make them more applicable to their location of interest. To increase the number of observations available to make these adjustments, we encourage the collection of damage states (and not just habitability classes following earthquakes and also the installation of dense strong-motion networks in built-up areas.

  9. Mitigating Corporate Water Risk: Financial Market Tools and Supply Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy M. Larson

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A decision framework for business water-risk response is proposed that considers financial instruments and supply management strategies. Based on available and emergent programmes, companies in the agricultural, commodities, and energy sectors may choose to hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts or insurance products. These strategies address financial impacts such as revenue protection due to scarcity and disruption of direct operations or in the supply chain, but they do not directly serve to maintain available supplies to continue production. In contrast, companies can undertake actions in the watershed to enhance supply reliability and/or they can reduce demand to mitigate risk. Intermediate strategies such as purchasing of water rights or water trading involving financial transactions change the allocation of water but do not reduce overall watershed demand or increase water supply. The financial services industry is playing an increasingly important role, by considering how water risks impact decision making on corporate growth and market valuation, corporate creditworthiness, and bond rating. Risk assessment informed by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR measures is described, and the role of the financial services industry is characterised. A corporate decision framework is discussed in the context of water resources management strategies under complex uncertainties.

  10. Risk Mitigation for the Development of the New Ariane 5 On-Board Computer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stransky, Arnaud; Chevalier, Laurent; Dubuc, Francois; Conde-Reis, Alain; Ledoux, Alain; Miramont, Philippe; Johansson, Leif

    2010-08-01

    In the frame of the Ariane 5 production, some equipment will become obsolete and need to be redesigned and redeveloped. This is the case for the On-Board Computer, which has to be completely redesigned and re-qualified by RUAG Space, as well as all its on-board software and associated development tools by ASTRIUM ST. This paper presents this obsolescence treatment, which has started in 2007 under an ESA contract, in the frame of ACEP and ARTA accompaniment programmes, and is very critical in technical term but also from schedule point of view: it gives the context and overall development plan, and details the risk mitigation actions agreed with ESA, especially those related to the development of the input/output ASIC, and also the on-board software porting and revalidation strategy. The efficiency of these risk mitigation actions has been proven by the outcome schedule; this development constitutes an up-to-date case for good practices, including some experience report and feedback for future other developments.

  11. Proceedings of third Indo-German workshop and theme meeting on seismic safety of structures, risk assessment and disaster mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, G.R.; Parulekar, Y.M.

    2007-01-01

    This Indo-German workshop focuses and emphasises the current research and development activities in both the countries. Themes of this meeting are Earthquake Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Assessment Techniques, Seismic Risk to Mega Cities, Testing and Evaluation of Structures and Components, Base Isolation and other Control Techniques, Seismic Strengthening of Structures, Design Practices and Specifications, Remote Sensing and GIS Applications, Structural Materials and Composites, Containment and Other Special Structures. Papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately

  12. Individual risk evaluation and interventions for mitigation in the transportation of hazardous goods: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rada Elena Cristina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The transport of hazardous substances is an economic activity essential for goods’ transference chain. However, the risk in transporting hazardous materials is related to the occur of accidents causing environmental damages and public health dangerous consequences. A quite recent Italian example is the Viareggio accident (2010, which involved a train with tank cars containing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG which caused more than thirty deaths. This paper describes the safety state in the Varese district (an area of northern Italy with a very high population density and industrial activities, with the aim at comparing the current situation (considering the risks due to the transportation of hazardous materials on the main motorways and main national roads with a potential scenario that introduces a few mitigating interventions, such as a partial conversion from road haulage to rail transport. This comparison can be accomplished by developing the existing intermodal platforms and implementing new ones in strategic areas.

  13. Flood prediction, its risk and mitigation for the Babura River with GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarigan, A. P. M.; Hanie, M. Z.; Khair, H.; Iskandar, R.

    2018-03-01

    This paper describes the flood prediction along the Babura River, the catchment of which is within the comparatively larger watershed of the Deli River which crosses the centre part of Medan City. The flood plain and ensuing inundation area were simulated using HECRAS based on the available data of rainfall, catchment, and river cross-sections. The results were shown in a GIS format in which the city map of Medan and other infrastructure layers were stacked for spatial analysis. From the resulting GIS, it can be seen that 13 sub-districts were likely affected by the flood, and then the risk calculation of the flood damage could be estimated. In the spirit of flood mitigation thoughts, 6 locations of evacuation centres were identified and 15 evacuation routes were recommended to reach the centres. It is hoped that the flood prediction and its risk estimation in this study will inspire the preparedness of the stakeholders for the probable threat of flood disaster.

  14. Development at the wildland-urban interface and the mitigation of forest-fire risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spyratos, Vassilis; Bourgeron, Patrick S; Ghil, Michael

    2007-09-04

    This work addresses the impacts of development at the wildland-urban interface on forest fires that spread to human habitats. Catastrophic fires in the western United States and elsewhere make these impacts a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists, and the general public. Using a simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, we show that fire size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability and house density. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition. Thus, the density and flammability of buildings should be taken into account when assessing fire risk at the wildland-urban interface. Moreover, our results highlight ways for regulation at this interface to help mitigate fire risk.

  15. Mitigation of fire damage and escalation by fireproofing: A risk-based strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tugnoli, Alessandro; Cozzani, Valerio; Di Padova, Annamaria; Barbaresi, Tiziana; Tallone, Fabrizio

    2012-01-01

    Passive fire protection by the application of fireproofing materials is a crucial safety barrier in the prevention of the escalation of fire scenarios. Fireproofing improves the capacity of process items and of support structures to maintain their structural integrity during a fire, preventing or at least delaying the collapse of structural elements. Maintenance and cost issues require, however, to apply such protection only where an actual risk of severe fire scenarios is present. Available methodologies for fireproofing application in on-shore installation do not consider the effect of jet-fires. In the present study, a risk-based methodology aimed at the protection from both pool fire and jet fire escalation was developed. The procedure addresses both the prevention of domino effect and the mitigation of asset damage due to the primary fire scenario. The method is mainly oriented to early design application, allowing the identification of fireproofing zones in the initial phases of lay-out definition.

  16. Modelling global distribution, risk and mitigation strategies of floating plastic pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Sherman, Peter; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Lavender Law, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Pacific and North Atlantic accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardise a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and couple this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons. A large fraction of the uncertainty in these estimates comes from sparse sampling in coastal and Southern Hemisphere regions. We then use this global distribution of small floating plastic debris to map out where in the ocean the risk to marine life (in particular seabirds and plankton growth) is greatest, using a quantitative risk framework. We show that the largest risk occurs not necessarily in regions of high plastic concentration, but rather in regions of extensive foraging with medium-high plastic concentrations such as coastal upwelling regions and the Southern Ocean. Finally, we use the estimates of distribution to investigate where in the ocean plastic can most optimally be removed, assuming hypothetical clean-up booms following the ideas from The Ocean Cleanup project. We show that mitigation of the plastic problem can most aptly be done near coastlines, particularly in Asia, rather than in the centres of the gyres. Based on these results, we propose more focus on the coastal zones when

  17. Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

    2013-04-01

    Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data

  18. Determining Coastal Hazards Risk Perception to Enhance Local Mitigation Planning through a Participatory Mapping Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bethel, M.; Braud, D.; Lambeth, T.; Biber, P.; Wu, W.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal community leaders, government officials, and natural resource managers must be able to accurately assess and predict a given coastal landscape's sustainability and/or vulnerability as coastal habitat continues to undergo rapid and dramatic changes associated with natural and anthropogenic activities such as accelerated relative sea level rise (SLR). To help address this information need, a multi-disciplinary project team conducted Sea Grant sponsored research in Louisiana and Mississippi with traditional ecosystem users and natural resource managers to determine a method for producing localized vulnerability and sustainability maps for projected SLR and storm surge impacts, and determine how and whether the results of such an approach can provide more useful information to enhance hazard mitigation planning. The goals of the project are to develop and refine SLR visualization tools for local implementation in areas experiencing subsidence and erosion, and discover the different ways stakeholder groups evaluate risk and plan mitigation strategies associated with projected SLR and storm surge. Results from physical information derived from data and modeling of subsidence, erosion, engineered restoration and coastal protection features, historical land loss, and future land projections under SLR are integrated with complimentary traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) offered by the collaborating local ecosystem users for these assessments. The data analysis involves interviewing stakeholders, coding the interviews for themes, and then converting the themes into vulnerability and sustainability factors. Each factor is weighted according to emphasis by the TEK experts and number of experts who mention it to determine which factors are the highest priority. The priority factors are then mapped with emphasis on the perception of contributing to local community vulnerability or sustainability to SLR and storm surge. The maps are used by the collaborators to benefit

  19. Prevalence and mitigation strategies of HIV/AIDS infection risks in Namibian tertiary education institutional hostels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimba, Roderick F; Likando, Gilbert N

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors that could promote HIV infection amongst adolescents and young adults living in tertiary educational institutional hostels in Namibia. Employing structured questionnaires and focus group discussions, we sought to answer questions pertaining to factors, beliefs systems, values, traditions and sexual relations that could promote HIV infection in the student hostels. The data on these issues were gathered from 306 male and 314 female students aged 18-35 years living in eight hostels. Amongst other results, the data revealed that sexual promiscuity in the hostels was treated as the norm in the majority of cases, unauthorized access to hostel rooms by non-hostel dwellers was rampant, sexual harassment of female students by men who were under the influence of alcohol was reported to be common and there was general lack of support for victims of sexual abuse in the hostels. In addition, there was a general sense of insecurity in the hostels where more than 50% of the participants were afraid of being sexually attacked, some female hostel residents engaged in sexual activities for monetary and material gain and there was a general practice of older men from the community having sexual relations with young female hostel dwellers. To mitigate these and other risks it is recommended that there be provision of more HIV/AIDS prevention services, enhanced security, non-toxic entertainment (e.g. participation in sport and social clubs) and the banning of the sale of alcohol in student residences and on tertiary institution campuses. These and other results are discussed in the article and ways of mitigating the risks are proposed.

  20. Applications of nuclear safety probabilistic risk assessment to nuclear security for optimized risk mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donnelly, S.K.; Harvey, S.B. [Amec Foster Wheeler, Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

    2016-06-15

    Critical infrastructure assets such as nuclear power generating stations are potential targets for malevolent acts. Probabilistic methodologies can be applied to evaluate the real-time security risk based upon intelligence and threat levels. By employing this approach, the application of security forces and other protective measures can be optimized. Existing probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) methodologies and tools employed. in the nuclear industry can be adapted to security applications for this purpose. Existing PSA models can also be adapted and enhanced to consider total plant risk, due to nuclear safety risks as well as security risks. By creating a Probabilistic Security Model (PSM), safety and security practitioners can maximize the safety and security of the plant while minimizing the significant costs associated with security upgrades and security forces. (author)

  1. The Pros and Cons of Using Joint Ventures as a Tool to Mitigate Political Risks in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Iftinchi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As part of their political risk management strategy, multinational corporations (MNCs can use joint ventures as a tool to reduce their exposure to political risks in international activities. The aim of this article is to present the main benefits for MNCs in using joint ventures with a local partner to mitigate political risks in developing countries and to put forward three risks that MNCs have to consider when choosing the local partner (the risk of opportunistic expropriation, the risk associated with transferring of intellectual property rights and reputational risk.

  2. The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottsmann, J.

    2012-04-01

    Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short

  3. Trait acclimation mitigates mortality risks of tropical canopy trees under global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank eSterck

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25-35ºC and ambient CO2 concentrations (390-800 ppm predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10-20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2ºC, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change.

  4. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P. R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided a first quantification of the potential of trait acclimation to mitigate the negative effects of warming on tropical canopy tree growth and survival. We applied a physiological tree growth model that incorporates trait acclimation through an optimization approach. Our model estimated the maximum effect of acclimation when trees optimize traits that are strongly plastic on a week to annual time scale (leaf photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area, stem sapwood area) to maximize carbon gain. We simulated tree carbon gain for temperatures (25–35°C) and ambient CO2 concentrations (390–800 ppm) predicted for the 21st century. Full trait acclimation increased simulated carbon gain by up to 10–20% and the maximum tolerated temperature by up to 2°C, thus reducing risks of tree death under predicted warming. Functional trait acclimation may thus increase the resilience of tropical trees to warming, but cannot prevent tree death during extremely hot and dry years at current CO2 levels. We call for incorporating trait acclimation in field and experimental studies of plant functional traits, and in models that predict responses of tropical forests to climate change. PMID:27242814

  5. Observational study to mitigate seismic risks in mines: a new Japanese-South African collaborative project

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Mining-induced earthquakes pose a hazard to workers in deep South African mines, while natural earthquakes pose a hazard to people living close to plate boundaries. Researchers introduce a 5-year Japanese-South African collaborative project entitled...

  6. A 3-Factor Model Relating Communication to Risk Mitigation of Extended Information System Failover

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Podaras

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse the relation between timely and effective communication and risk mitigation of late recovery after an unexpected information system outage in enterprises. An unforeseen information system failure in modern enterprise units, may result to significant operational and financial damage. In such a critical incident, effective communication between the team leaders and the recovery team involved, can minimize or even eliminate this negative impact. An extended information system outage can be perceived as a time deviation from the Maximum Accepted Outage (ΜΑΟ timeframe, proposed by the business continuity management, according to the value of which dependent business functions may be interrupted without any serious effects to the company. The paper examines the relation between 3 basic factors and the efficient communication between team members. The factors are: timely information distribution, staff availability and network availability. Through the current paper, the author proposes a risk analysis model, based on the Composite Risk Index theory of Risk Management, which can significantly diminish the possibility of an extended information system outage, as well as calculate the extended time required to recover a system when the aforementioned factors emerge in their worst form. The precise calculation of recovery time can be achieved via the execution of business continuity tests which include scenarios, according to which an unexpected system outage coexists with delayed information distribution as well as low staff and network availability.

  7. Earthquake Loss Assessment for the Evaluation of the Sovereign Risk and Financial Sustainability of Countries and Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardona, O. D.

    2013-05-01

    Recently earthquakes have struck cities both from developing as well as developed countries, revealing significant knowledge gaps and the need to improve the quality of input data and of the assumptions of the risk models. The quake and tsunami in Japan (2011) and the disasters due to earthquakes in Haiti (2010), Chile (2010), New Zealand (2011) and Spain (2011), only to mention some unexpected impacts in different regions, have left several concerns regarding hazard assessment as well as regarding the associated uncertainties to the estimation of the future losses. Understanding probable losses and reconstruction costs due to earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to cope with sovereign risk, including allocating the sustained budgetary resources necessary to reduce those potential damages and safeguard development. Therefore the use of robust risk models is a need to assess the future economic impacts, the country's fiscal responsibilities and the contingent liabilities for governments and to formulate, justify and implement risk reduction measures and optimal financial strategies of risk retention and transfer. Special attention should be paid to the understanding of risk metrics such as the Loss Exceedance Curve (empiric and analytical) and the Expected Annual Loss in the context of conjoint and cascading hazards.

  8. Encyclopedia of earthquake engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis; Patelli, Edoardo; Au, Siu-Kui

    2015-01-01

    The Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering is designed to be the authoritative and comprehensive reference covering all major aspects of the science of earthquake engineering, specifically focusing on the interaction between earthquakes and infrastructure. The encyclopedia comprises approximately 265 contributions. Since earthquake engineering deals with the interaction between earthquake disturbances and the built infrastructure, the emphasis is on basic design processes important to both non-specialists and engineers so that readers become suitably well-informed without needing to deal with the details of specialist understanding. The content of this encyclopedia provides technically inclined and informed readers about the ways in which earthquakes can affect our infrastructure and how engineers would go about designing against, mitigating and remediating these effects. The coverage ranges from buildings, foundations, underground construction, lifelines and bridges, roads, embankments and slopes. The encycl...

  9. Incentives for mitigation investment and more effective risk management: the need for public-private partnerships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunreuther, H

    2001-09-14

    A key question facing both well-developed industrial countries and emerging economies is how to reduce future disaster losses while still providing financial protection to victims from these events. This paper proposes a strategy for the use of cost-effective risk mitigation measures coupled with insurance and/or new capital market instruments to achieve these objectives. The mix of these measures will depend on the governance structure and the institutional arrangements in the particular country. There will always be a need for a combination of policy tools and the interaction among key interested parties from both the private and public sectors in developing a disaster management strategy. Two examples, one from US and the other from Honduras, illustrate differences between strategies that countries can adopt.

  10. Comparison of PAM Systems for Acoustic Monitoring and Further Risk Mitigation Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Stefan; Kreimeyer, Roman; Knoll, Michaela

    2016-01-01

    We present results of the SIRENA 2011 research cruises conducted by the NATO Undersea Research Centre (NURC) and joined by the Research Department for Underwater Acoustics and Geophysics (FWG), Bundeswehr Technical Centre (WTD 71) and the Universities of Kiel and Pavia. The cruises were carried out in the Ligurian Sea. The main aim of the FWG was to test and evaluate the newly developed towed hydrophone array as a passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) tool for risk mitigation applications. The system was compared with the PAM equipment used by the other participating institutions. Recorded sounds were used to improve an automatic acoustic classifier for marine mammals, and validated acoustic detections by observers were compared with the results of the classifier.

  11. Trajectory Design Enhancements to Mitigate Risk for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dichmann, Donald; Parker, Joel; Nickel, Craig; Lutz, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, which will be reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several constraints on the science orbit and on the phasing loops. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V (DV) and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and optimal nominal trajectories; to check constraint satisfaction; and finally to model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

  12. Mitigating Zika Risk: Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus Risk Mapping in Brownsville, TX

    Science.gov (United States)

    The presentation is intended to (1) engage audiences on a “System’s” approach to model Aedes species risks at a community level, (2) highlight US EPA EnviroAtlas ecosystem services and data rich capacity, and (3) present ORD research that is directly support EPA...

  13. Integrating household risk mitigation behaviour in flood risk analysis : An agent-based model approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W.J.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/297620584; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect

  14. Destructive Interactions Between Mitigation Strategies and the Causes of Unexpected Failures in Natural Hazard Mitigation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, S. J.; Fearnley, C. J.

    2013-12-01

    Large investments in the mitigation of natural hazards, using a variety of technology-based mitigation strategies, have proven to be surprisingly ineffective in some recent natural disasters. These failures reveal a need for a systematic classification of mitigation strategies; an understanding of the scientific uncertainties that affect the effectiveness of such strategies; and an understanding of how the different types of strategy within an overall mitigation system interact destructively to reduce the effectiveness of the overall mitigation system. We classify mitigation strategies into permanent, responsive and anticipatory. Permanent mitigation strategies such as flood and tsunami defenses or land use restrictions, are both costly and 'brittle': when they malfunction they can increase mortality. Such strategies critically depend on the accuracy of the estimates of expected hazard intensity in the hazard assessments that underpin their design. Responsive mitigation strategies such as tsunami and lahar warning systems rely on capacities to detect and quantify the hazard source events and to transmit warnings fast enough to enable at risk populations to decide and act effectively. Self-warning and voluntary evacuation is also usually a responsive mitigation strategy. Uncertainty in the nature and magnitude of the detected hazard source event is often the key scientific obstacle to responsive mitigation; public understanding of both the hazard and the warnings, to enable decision making, can also be a critical obstacle. Anticipatory mitigation strategies use interpretation of precursors to hazard source events and are used widely in mitigation of volcanic hazards. Their critical limitations are due to uncertainties in time, space and magnitude relationships between precursors and hazard events. Examples of destructive interaction between different mitigation strategies are provided by the Tohoku 2011 earthquake and tsunami; recent earthquakes that have impacted

  15. Enhancing sediment flux control and natural hazard risk mitigation through a structured conceptual planning approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoni, S.; Vignoli, G.; Mazzorana, B.

    2017-08-01

    Sediment fluxes from mountain rivers contribute to shape the geomorphologic features of lowland rivers and to establish the physical basis for an optimal set of ecosystem functions and related services to people. Through significant public funding, the hydro-morphological regimes of mountain rivers in the European Alps have been progressively altered over the last century, with the aim to provide a safe dwelling space, to boost transport, mobility and to support economic growth. We claim that the underlying planning weaknesses contribute to determine these inefficient resource allocations, since flood risk is still high and the ecosystem services are far from being optimal. Hence, with the overall aim to enhance sediment flux control and hazard risk mitigation in such heavily modified alpine streams, we propose a structured design workflow which guides the planner through system analysis and synthesis. As a first step the proposed workflow sets the relevant planning goals and assesses the protection structure functionality. Then a methodology is proposed to achieve the goals. This methodology consists in characterising the hydrologic basin of interest and the sediment availability and determining the sediment connectivity to channels. The focus is set on the detailed analysis of existing river cross sections where the sediment continuity is interrupted (e.g. slit and check dams). By retaining relevant sediment volumes these structures prevent the reactivation of hydro-morphological and associated ecological functionalities. Since their actual performance can be unsatisfying with respect to flood risk mitigation (e.g. mainly old structures), we introduce specific efficiency indicators as a support for the conceptual design stage to quantify effects related to sediment flux control and risk management. The proposed planning approach is then applied to the Gadria system (stream, slit dam, retention basin and culvert), located in South Tyrol, Italy. This case study

  16. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karakitsios, Spyros P.; Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A.; Gotti, Alberto; Kassomenos, Pavlos A.; Pilidis, Georgios A.

    2013-01-01

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10 −5 compared to 23.4 · 10 −5 for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support. - Highlights

  17. A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karakitsios, Spyros P. [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Sarigiannis, Dimosthenis A., E-mail: denis@eng.auth.gr [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Chemical Engineering, 54124 Thessaloniki (Greece); Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Gotti, Alberto [Centre for Research and Technology Hellas (CE.R.T.H.), 57001, Thessaloniki (Greece); Kassomenos, Pavlos A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Physics, Laboratory of Meteorology, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece); Pilidis, Georgios A. [University of Ioannina, Department of Biological Appl. and Technologies, GR-45110 Ioannina (Greece)

    2013-01-15

    The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki. Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1 · 10{sup −5} compared to 23.4 · 10{sup −5} for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not. From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal. The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support

  18. Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk in Nepal and Their Mitigation Practices in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurung, S.

    2017-12-01

    Glacial lakes in Nepal face a huge risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) due to the ongoing effects of climate change leading to considerable amount of snow and glacier melt thus weakening the natural barriers holding these high altitude glacial lakes. Nepal is at an ever growing risk every year and always waiting for an inevitable natural disaster. Since GLOF can cause extreme huge loss of human lives and physical properties, it has now become very important to design a proper mechanism which helps in reducing hazards from such events. There is little we can do to stop natural disasters, but we can implement pro-active control measures to minimize the loss. Early Warning System is the provision of timely and effective information, which allows individuals exposed to hazards to take action, avoid or reduce risk to life and property and prepare for effective response. The basic idea behind Early Warning System is that, the earlier and more accurately we are able to predict potential risks associated with natural hazards especially flood, the more likely we will be able to manage and mitigate the disasters' impact on society, economies and environment. We are currently focused on the development of early warning system for Imja Glacial Lake. The objective of developing early warning system for Imja GLOF is to help reduce economic losses and mitigate the number of injuries or deaths by providing information that allows individuals and communities downstream of Imja Lake to protect their lives and properties by using the latest and most advanced technology available. We have installed one Automatic Weather Station near the left lateral moraine of Imja Lake to study the effects of different meteorological parameters so as to predict occurrence of any GLOF event. The sensor includes pluviometer, pyranometer, temperature and humidity sensor, wind sensor, Snowdepth sensor. Two radar level sensors are installed at the outlet of Imja Lake and downstream of Imja river

  19. Earthquake Magnitude and Shaking Intensity Dependent Fragility Functions for Rapid Risk Assessment of Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-José Nollet

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated web application, referred to as ER2 for rapid risk evaluator, is under development for a user-friendly seismic risk assessment by the non-expert public safety community. The assessment of likely negative consequences is based on pre-populated databases of seismic, building inventory and vulnerability parameters. To further accelerate the computation for near real-time analyses, implicit building fragility curves were developed as functions of the magnitude and the intensity of the seismic shaking defined with a single intensity measure, input spectral acceleration at 1.0 s implicitly considering the epicentral distance and local soil conditions. Damage probabilities were compared with those obtained with the standard fragility functions explicitly considering epicentral distances and local site classes in addition to the earthquake magnitudes and respective intensity of the seismic shaking. Different seismic scenarios were considered first for 53 building classes common in Eastern Canada, and then a reduced number of 24 combined building classes was proposed. Comparison of results indicate that the damage predictions with implicit fragility functions for short (M ≤ 5.5 and medium strong motion duration (5.5 < M ≤ 7.5 show low variation with distance and soil class, with average error of less than 3.6%.

  20. Flood risk mitigation in Europe: how far away are we from the aspired forms of adaptive governance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Fournier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Flood mitigation is a strategy that is growing in importance across Europe. This growth corresponds with an increasing emphasis on the need to learn to live with floods and make space for water. Flood mitigation measures aim at reducing the likelihood and magnitude of flooding and complement flood defenses. They are being put in place through the implementation of actions that accommodate (rather than resist water, such as natural flood management or adapted housing. The strategy has gained momentum over the past 20 years in an effort to improve the sustainability of flood risk management (FRM and facilitate the diversification of FRM in the pursuit of societal resilience to flooding. Simultaneously, it is increasingly argued that adaptive forms of governance are best placed to address the uncertainty and complexity associated with social-ecological systems responding to environmental challenges, such as flooding. However, there have been few attempts to examine the extent to which current flood risk governance, and flood mitigation specifically, reflect these aspired forms of adaptive governance. Drawing from EU research into flood risk governance, conducted within the STAR-FLOOD project, we examine the governance of flood mitigation in six European countries: Belgium, England, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden. Using in-depth policy and legal analysis, as well as interviews with key actors, the governance and implementation of flood mitigation in these countries is evaluated from the normative viewpoint of whether, and to what extent, it can be characterized as adaptive governance. We identify five criteria of adaptive governance based on a comprehensive literature review and apply these to each country to determine the "distance" between current governance arrangements and adaptive governance. In conclusion, the flood mitigation strategy provides various opportunities for actors to further pursue forms of adaptive governance. The

  1. Stochastic optimized life cycle models for risk mitigation in power system applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sageder, A.

    1998-01-01

    This ork shows the relevance of stochastic optimization in complex power system applications. It was proven that usual deterministic mean value models not only predict inaccurate results but are also most often on the risky side. The change in the market effects all kind of evaluation processes (e.g. fuel type and technology but especially financial engineering evaluations) in the endeavor of a strict risk mitigation comparison. But not only IPPs also traditional Utilities dash for risk/return optimized investment opportunities. In this study I developed a 2-phase model which can support a decision-maker in finding optimal solutions on investment and profitability. It has to be stated, that in this study no objective function will be optimized in an algorithmically way. On the one hand focus is laid on finding optimal solutions out of different choices (highest return at lowest possible risk); on the other hand the endeavor was to provide a decision makers with a better assessment of the likelihood of outcomes on investment considerations. The first (deterministic) phase computes in a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) approach (Life cycle Calculation; DCF method). Most of the causal relations (day of operation, escalation of personal expanses, inflation, depreciation period, etc.) are defined within this phase. The second (stochastic) phase is a total new way in optimizing risk/return relations. With the some decision theory mathematics an expected value of stochastic solutions can be calculated. Furthermore probability function have to be defined out of historical data. The model not only supports profitability analysis (including regress and sensitivity analysis) but also supports a decision-maker in a decision process. Emphasis was laid on risk-return analysis, which can give the decision-maker first hand informations of the type of risk return problem (risk concave, averse or linear). Five important parameters were chosen which have the characteristics of typical

  2. Observational studies in South African mines to mitigate seismic risks: a mid-project progress report

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available -322. Utsu, T., 2003, Centennial Report of Japan. Part 2. Historical development of Seismology in Japan. International Handbook of Earthquake & Engineering Seismology, Part B, W. Lee, P. Jennings, C. Kisslinger and H. Kanamori (eds), Academic Press...

  3. Lessons from the conviction of the L'Aquila seven: The standard probabilistic earthquake hazard and risk assessment is ineffective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, Max

    2013-04-01

    An earthquake of M6.3 killed 309 people in L'Aquila, Italy, on 6 April 2011. Subsequently, a judge in L'Aquila convicted seven who had participated in an emergency meeting on March 30, assessing the probability of a major event to follow the ongoing earthquake swarm. The sentence was six years in prison, a combine fine of 2 million Euros, loss of job, loss of retirement rent, and lawyer's costs. The judge followed the prosecution's accusation that the review by the Commission of Great Risks had conveyed a false sense of security to the population, which consequently did not take their usual precautionary measures before the deadly earthquake. He did not consider the facts that (1) one of the convicted was not a member of the commission and had merrily obeyed orders to bring the latest seismological facts to the discussion, (2) another was an engineer who was not required to have any expertise regarding the probability of earthquakes, (3) and two others were seismologists not invited to speak to the public at a TV interview and a press conference. This exaggerated judgment was the consequence of an uproar in the population, who felt misinformed and even mislead. Faced with a population worried by an earthquake swarm, the head of the Italian Civil Defense is on record ordering that the population be calmed, and the vice head executed this order in a TV interview one hour before the meeting of the Commission by stating "the scientific community continues to tell me that the situation is favorable and that there is a discharge of energy." The first lesson to be learned is that communications to the public about earthquake hazard and risk must not be left in the hands of someone who has gross misunderstandings about seismology. They must be carefully prepared by experts. The more significant lesson is that the approach to calm the population and the standard probabilistic hazard and risk assessment, as practiced by GSHAP, are misleading. The later has been criticized as

  4. CFD evaluation of hydrogen risk mitigation measures in a VVER-440/213 containment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heitsch, Matthias, E-mail: Matthias.Heitsch@ec.europa.e [Institute for Energy, Joint Research Centre, PO Box 2, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Huhtanen, Risto [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, PO Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Techy, Zsolt [VEIKI Institute for Electric Power Research Co., PO Box 80, H-1251 Budapest (Hungary); Fry, Chris [Serco, Winfrith Technology Centre, Dorchester, Dorset DT2 8DH (United Kingdom); Kostka, Pal [VEIKI Institute for Electric Power Research Co., PO Box 80, H-1251 Budapest (Hungary); Niemi, Jarto [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, PO Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland); Schramm, Berthold [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit, GRS mbH, Schwertnergasse 1, 50667 Koeln (Germany)

    2010-02-15

    In the PHARE project 'Hydrogen Management for the VVER440/213' (HU2002/000-632-04-01), CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) calculations using GASFLOW, FLUENT and CFX were performed for the Paks NPP (Nuclear Power Plant), modelling a defined severe accident scenario which involves the release of hydrogen. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate that CFD codes can be used to model gas movement inside a containment during a severe accident. With growing experience in performing such analyses, the results encourage the use of CFD in assessing the risk of losing containment integrity as a result of hydrogen deflagrations. As an effective mitigation measure in such a situation, the implementation of catalytic recombiners is planned in the Paks NPP. In order to support these plans both unmitigated and recombiner-mitigated simulations were performed. These are described and selected results are compared. The codes CFX and FLUENT needed refinement to their models of wall and bulk steam condensation in order to be able to fully simulate the severe accident under consideration. Several CFD codes were used in parallel to model the same accident scenario in order to reduce uncertainties in the results. Previously it was considered impractical to use CFD codes to simulate a full containment subject to a severe accident extending over many hours. This was because of the expected prohibitive computing times and missing physical capabilities of the codes. This work demonstrates that, because of developments in the capabilities of CFD codes and improvements in computer power, these calculations have now become feasible.

  5. Hard sludge formation in modern steam generators of nuclear power plants. Formation, risks and mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strohmer, F.

    2014-01-01

    In recent years modern steam generators with triangular pitch tube bundle geometry have experienced damage caused by hard sludge formation on top of the tube sheet and denting. The effect can lead to a limitation of the modern steam generators’ lifetime. The current publication shows reasons for the generation of hard sludge formation. Moreover, it describes the risk arising from hard sludge formation for the concerned steam generators and the mitigation of the problem. The main factors contributing to the formation of hard sludge are: the amount of corrosion product ingress into the steam generators, hard sludge formation favouring impurities and, skipped maintenance applications during outages. The main damaging mechanism of denting that can arise under certain secondary side conditions from hard sludge is explained. For steam generator tube denting, aggressive, oxidizing conditions have to be established in crevices beneath the hard sludge piles. Severely dented tubes are sensitive toward outer diameter stress corrosion cracking (ODSCC). The denting and ODSCC mechanism is explained. In addition, a proactive long-term maintenance strategy to avoid the formation of hard sludge piles will be shown. The strategy is based on a reduction of the corrosion product ingress into the steam generator's secondary side, and on the regular removal of deposits from the tube sheet and from the entire upper bundle area by latest mechanical cleaning methods. For hard deposits - formed either by silicates or long term hardened corrosion products, which, in the past, could not be removed by chemical or mechanical means - a new, simple, mechanical cleaning method is presented. This method can be used during the normal time frame of an outage and allows the restart of the unit with clean steam generator tube sheets. This mitigates the tendency to form hard sludge and denting in the long term. (author)

  6. Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.

    2014-12-01

    A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.

  7. Arsenic Contamination of Groundwater: A Review of Sources, Prevalence, Health Risks, and Strategies for Mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiv Shankar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater.

  8. Mitigating the Risk of Extreme Water Scarcity and Dependency: The Case of Jordan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joep F. Schyns

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on estimates of water footprint, water availability, and virtual water trade, we find that groundwater consumption is nearly double the groundwater availability, water pollution aggravates blue water scarcity, and Jordan’s external virtual water import dependency is 86%. The review of response options yields 10 ingredients for a strategy for Jordan to mitigate the risks of extreme water scarcity and dependency. With respect to these ingredients, Jordan’s current water policy requires a strong redirection towards water demand management. Actual implementation of the plans in the national water strategy (against existing oppositions would be a first step. However, more attention should be paid to reducing water demand by changing the consumption pattern of Jordanian consumers. Moreover, unsustainable exploitation of the fossil Disi aquifer should soon be halted and planned desalination projects require careful consideration regarding the sustainability of their energy supply.

  9. Arsenic contamination of groundwater: a review of sources, prevalence, health risks, and strategies for mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shankar, Shiv; Shanker, Uma; Shikha

    2014-01-01

    Arsenic contamination of groundwater in different parts of the world is an outcome of natural and/or anthropogenic sources, leading to adverse effects on human health and ecosystem. Millions of people from different countries are heavily dependent on groundwater containing elevated level of As for drinking purposes. As contamination of groundwater, poses a serious risk to human health. Excessive and prolonged exposure of inorganic As with drinking water is causing arsenicosis, a deteriorating and disabling disease characterized by skin lesions and pigmentation of the skin, patches on palm of the hands and soles of the feet. Arsenic poisoning culminates into potentially fatal diseases like skin and internal cancers. This paper reviews sources, speciation, and mobility of As and global overview of groundwater As contamination. The paper also critically reviews the As led human health risks, its uptake, metabolism, and toxicity mechanisms. The paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge on the alternative As free drinking water and various technologies (oxidation, coagulation flocculation, adsorption, and microbial) for mitigation of the problem of As contamination of groundwater.

  10. Unconventional Oil and Gas Spills: Risks, Mitigation Priorities, and State Reporting Requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Lauren A; Konschnik, Katherine E; Wiseman, Hannah; Fargione, Joseph; Maloney, Kelly O; Kiesecker, Joseph; Nicot, Jean-Philippe; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; Entrekin, Sally; Trainor, Anne; Saiers, James E

    2017-03-07

    Rapid growth in unconventional oil and gas (UOG) has produced jobs, revenue, and energy, but also concerns over spills and environmental risks. We assessed spill data from 2005 to 2014 at 31 481 UOG wells in Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, and Pennsylvania. We found 2-16% of wells reported a spill each year. Median spill volumes ranged from 0.5 m 3 in Pennsylvania to 4.9 m 3 in New Mexico; the largest spills exceeded 100 m 3 . Seventy-five to 94% of spills occurred within the first three years of well life when wells were drilled, completed, and had their largest production volumes. Across all four states, 50% of spills were related to storage and moving fluids via flowlines. Reporting rates varied by state, affecting spill rates and requiring extensive time and effort getting data into a usable format. Enhanced and standardized regulatory requirements for reporting spills could improve the accuracy and speed of analyses to identify and prevent spill risks and mitigate potential environmental damage. Transparency for data sharing and analysis will be increasingly important as UOG development expands. We designed an interactive spills data visualization tool ( http://snappartnership.net/groups/hydraulic-fracturing/webapp/spills.html ) to illustrate the value of having standardized, public data.

  11. Creating Stakeholder Value through Risk Mitigation Measures in the Context of Disaster Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minna Räikkönen

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The resilience of critical infrastructure (CI to extreme weather events (EWE is one of the most demanding challenges for all stakeholders in modern society. Although partial risk reduction is feasible through the introduction and implementation of various risk mitigation measures (RMM, decision-makers at all decision-making levels are pressured to find ways to cope with the impending extreme weather and to have a thorough understanding of the EWE impacts on CI. This paper discusses how the value of RMMs can be created and assessed in a stakeholder network. Qualitative research methods, namely literature review and AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process, were applied as research methods. The paper examines how disaster management and value creation both converge and differ from each other. It also presents a case study on the value of various RMM and the impacts of extreme winter conditions on electricity distribution in Finland. Based on the case study, the most important value criterion was the benefits of the RMM in economic, social, and environmental terms. At a fundamental level, the value of RMM should be expressed not only in terms of money but also in regard to safety, security, societal acceptability, CI dependability, and other typically intangible criteria. Moreover, the results reveal that the interrelationship of value creation and disaster management offers new insights to both approaches.

  12. Organic amendments for risk mitigation of organochlorine pesticide residues in old orchard soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Centofantia, Tiziana; McConnell, Laura L.; Chaney, Rufus L.; Beyer, W. Nelson; Andradea, Natasha A.; Hapeman, Cathleen J.; Torrents, Alba; Nguyen, Anh; Anderson, Marya O.; Novak, J. M.; Jackson, Dana

    2015-01-01

    Performance of compost and biochar amendments for in situ risk mitigation of aged DDT, DDE and dieldrin residues in an old orchard soil was examined. The change in bioavailability of pesticide residues to Lumbricus terrestris L. relative to the unamended control soil was assessed using 4-L soil microcosms with and without plant cover in a 48-day experiment. The use of aged dairy manure compost and biosolids compost was found to be effective, especially in the planted treatments, at lowering the bioavailability factor (BAF) by 18–39%; however, BAF results for DDT in the unplanted soil treatments were unaffected or increased. The pine chip biochar utilized in this experiment was ineffective at lower the BAF of pesticides in the soil. The US EPA Soil Screening Level approach was used with our measured values. Addition of 10% of the aged dairy manure compost reduced the average hazard quotient values to below 1.0 for DDT + DDE and dieldrin. Results indicate this sustainable approach is appropriate to minimize risks to wildlife in areas of marginal organochlorine pesticide contamination. Application of this remediation approach has potential for use internationally in areas where historical pesticide contamination of soils remains a threat to wildlife populations.

  13. LastQuake: a comprehensive strategy for rapid engagement of earthquake eyewitnesses, massive crowdsourcing and risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Roussel, F.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.; Frobert, L.

    2015-12-01

    LastQuake is a smartphone app, browser add-on and the most sophisticated Twitter robot (quakebot) for earthquakes currently in operation. It fulfills eyewitnesses' needs by offering information on felt earthquakes and their effects within tens of seconds of their occurrence. Associated with an active presence on Facebook, Pinterest and on websites, this proves a very efficient engagement strategy. For example, the app was installed thousands of times after the Ghorka earthquake in Nepal. Language barriers have been erased by using visual communication; for example, felt reports are collected through a set of cartoons representing different shaking levels. Within 3 weeks of the magnitude 7.8 Ghorka earthquakes, 7,000 felt reports with thousands of comments were collected related to the mainshock and tens of its aftershocks as well as 100 informative geo-located pics. The QuakeBot was essential in allowing us to be identified so well and interact with those affected. LastQuake is also a risk reduction tool since it provides rapid information. Rapid information is similar to prevention since when it does not exist, disasters can happen. When no information is available after a felt earthquake, the public block emergency lines by trying to find out the cause of the shaking, crowds form potentially leading to unpredictable crowd movement, rumors spread. In its next release LastQuake will also provide people with guidance immediately after a shaking through a number of pop-up cartoons illustrating "do/don't do" items (go to open places, do not phone emergency services except if people are injured…). LastQuake's app design is simple and intuitive and has a global audience. It benefited from a crowdfunding campaign (and the support of the Fondation MAIF) and more improvements have been planned after an online feedback campaign organized in early June with the Ghorka earthquake eyewitnesses. LastQuake is also a seismic risk reduction tools thanks to its very rapid

  14. Information and education as a basis of risk mitigation for the citizens of Catalonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guamis, J.; Burckhart, K.; Grau, A.

    2009-09-01

    The General Directorate for Civil Protection of the Catalan Government is in charge of the drawing up and validation of plans that identify risk and establish a joint system of response actions to minimize the consequences of damages caused by emergencies. The risks covered are natural (fire, snow, flooding, heat,...) and human (chemical industry, transport of dangerous goods,...) ones. In the special case of flooding, an Emergency Flood Plan for Catalonia (INUNCAT) exists. Its aim is to minimize the effects and damages to people, property or the environment due to floods within the region of Catalonia. In the following, the actions on active prevention currently realized by Civil Protection in this Mediterranean region regarding risk mitigation of flooding are described. Special emphasis is laid on the prevention of risk situations through advanced information and education which aim at diminishing the vulnerability of the population. The preparedness of the population to face a serious flooding depends highly on the level of the citizens’ self-protection. Therefore the collection and dissemination of recommendations on adequate behaviour is crucial. The Catalan Government realizes different activities to foster the understanding and the correct behaviour of the citizens in case of flooding. Informative sessions to target groups, opinion studies, mass media communication and itinerant exhibitions are some of the elements applied to increase social consciousness and mitigate the vulnerability of the population. Among these, sensitization campaigns play a crucial role. A coherent system of information and education is adhered to these campaigns. Informative material (posters, leaflets, web sites) and sessions are part of the activities which are addressed to different social group and aim at rising the population’s awareness on the risk of flooding. Multidisciplinary presentations and expert speeches on adequate behaviour are given to stakeholders in those areas

  15. Prevalence and psychosocial risk factors of PTSD: 18 months after Kashmir earthquake in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naeem, Farooq; Ayub, Muhammad; Masood, Khadija; Gul, Huma; Khalid, Mahwish; Farrukh, Ammara; Shaheen, Aisha; Waheed, Waquas; Chaudhry, Haroon Rasheed

    2011-04-01

    On average in a year 939 earthquakes of a magnitude between 5 and 8 on the Richter scale occur around the world. In earthquakes developing countries are prone to large-scale destruction because of poor structural quality of buildings, and preparedness for earthquakes. On 8th October 2005, a major earthquake hit the remote and mountainous region of northern Pakistan and Kashmir. We wanted to find out the rate of PTSD in a randomly selected sample of participants living in earthquake area and the correlates of the PTSD. The study was conducted 18 months after the earthquake. We selected a sample of men and women living in the houses and tents for interviews. Using well established instruments for PTSD and general psychiatric morbidity we gathered information from over 1200 people in face to face interviews. We gathered information about trauma exposure and loss as well. 55.2% women and 33.4% men suffered from PTSD. Living in a joint family was protective against the symptoms of PTSD. Dose of exposure to trauma was associated with the symptoms of PTSD. Living in a tent was associated with general psychiatric morbidity but not with PTSD. We used questionnaire instead of interviews to detect the symptoms of psychiatric disorders. The symptoms of PTSD are common 18 months after the earthquake and they are specifically associated with the dose of trauma exposure. This may have implications for rehabilitation of this population. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  17. Educational Approach to Seismic Risk Mitigation in Indian Himalayas -Hazard Map Making Workshops at High Schools-

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koketsu, K.; Oki, S.; Kimura, M.; Chadha, R. K.; Davuluri, S.

    2014-12-01

    How can we encourage people to take preventive measures against damage risks and empower them to take the right actions in emergencies to save their lives? The conventional approach taken by scientists had been disseminating intelligible information on up-to-date seismological knowledge. However, it has been proven that knowledge alone does not have enough impact to modify people's behaviors in emergencies (Oki and Nakayachi, 2012). On the other hand, the conventional approach taken by practitioners had been to conduct emergency drills at schools or workplaces. The loss of many lives from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake has proven that these emergency drills were not enough to save people's lives, unless they were empowered to assess the given situation on their own and react flexibly. Our challenge is to bridge the gap between knowledge and practice. With reference to best practices observed in Tohoku, such as The Miracles of Kamaishi, our endeavor is to design an effective Disaster Preparedness Education Program that is applicable to other disaster-prone regions in the world, even with different geological, socio-economical and cultural backgrounds. The key concepts for this new approach are 1) empowering individuals to take preventive actions to save their lives, 2) granting community-based understanding of disaster risks and 3) building a sense of reality and relevancy to disasters. With these in mind, we held workshops at some high schools in the Lesser Himalayan Region, combining lectures with an activity called "Hazard Map Making" where students proactively identify and assess the hazards around their living areas and learn practical strategies on how to manage risks. We observed the change of awareness of the students by conducting a preliminary questionnaire survey and interviews after each session. Results strongly implied that the significant change of students' attitudes towards disaster preparedness occurred not by the lectures of scientific knowledge, but

  18. Implementation of secondary bacterial culture testing of platelets to mitigate residual risk of septic transfusion reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloch, Evan M; Marshall, Christi E; Boyd, Joan S; Shifflett, Lisa; Tobian, Aaron A R; Gehrie, Eric A; Ness, Paul M

    2018-04-01

    Bacterial contamination of platelets remains a major transfusion-associated risk despite long-standing safety measures in the United States. We evaluated an approach using secondary bacterial culture (SBC) to contend with residual risk of bacterial contamination. Phased implementation of SBC was initiated in October 2016 for platelets (all apheresis collected) received at our institution from the blood donor center (Day 3 post collection). Platelet products were sampled aseptically (5 mL inoculated into an aerobic bottle [BacT/ALERT BPA, BioMerieux, Inc.]) by the blood bank staff upon receipt, using a sterile connection device and sampling kit. The platelet sample was inoculated into an aerobic blood culture bottle and incubated at 35°C for 3 days. The cost of SBC was calculated on the basis of consumables and labor costs at time of implementation. In the 13 months following implementation (October 6, 2016, to November 30, 2017), 23,044/24,653 (93.47%) platelet products underwent SBC. A total of eight positive cultures were detected (incidence 1 in 2881 platelet products), seven of which were positive within 24 hours of SBC. Coagulase negative Staphyloccus spp. were identified in four cases. Five of the eight cases were probable true positive (repeat reactive) and interdicted (cost per averted case was US$77,935). The remaining three cases were indeterminate. No septic transfusion reactions were reported during the observation period. We demonstrate the feasibility of SBC of apheresis platelets to mitigate bacterial risk. SBC is lower cost than alternative measures (e.g., pathogen reduction and point-of-release testing) and can be integrated into workflow at hospital transfusion services. © 2018 AABB.

  19. Assessing the Effects of Information About Global Population Growth on Risk Perceptions and Support for Mitigation and Prevention Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Ian G J

    2018-05-16

    The human population is forecast to increase by 3-4 billion people during this century and many scientists have expressed concerns that this could increase the likelihood of certain adverse events (e.g., climate change and resource shortages). Recent research shows that these concerns are mirrored in public risk perceptions and that these perceptions correlate with a willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support actions to limit growth). However, little research has assessed the factors that influence risk perceptions of global population growth (GPG). To contribute to this important goal, this article presents three studies that examined how risk perceptions of GPG might be influenced by textual-visual representations (like those in media and Internet articles) of the potential effects of GPG. Study 1 found that a textual narrative that highlighted the potential negative (cf. positive) consequences of GPG led to higher perceived risk and greater willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors, but not to support preventative actions. Notably, the influence of the narratives on perceived risk was largely moderated by the participant's prior knowledge and perceptions of GPG. Contrary to expectations, studies 2 and 3 revealed, respectively, that photographs depicting GPG-related imagery and graphs depicting GPG rates had no significant effect on the perceived risk of GPG or the willingness to embrace mitigation or preventative actions. However, study 3 found that individuals with higher "graph literacy" perceived GPG as a higher risk and were more willing to adopt mitigation behaviors and support preventative actions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Mitigating the Risk of Stress Corrosion of Austenitic Stainless Steels in Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor Boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bull, A.; Owen, J.; Quirk, G.; G, Lewis; Rudge, A.; Woolsey, I.S.

    2012-09-01

    corrosion damage to the Type 316 superheater sections in the affected units an extensive programme of test work and plant modelling has been undertaken over a number of years. This has involved stress corrosion test work using full scale plant boiler simulations under a variety of feedwater chemistry conditions for both helical and serpentine boilers. Data from these investigations has then been used to construct models of the damage process that allow the risk of tube leaks due to stress corrosion cracking to be assessed. These models use plant feedwater chemistry and thermal-hydraulic data as inputs. The paper describes investigations of the risk of stress corrosion cracking in AGR boilers and the improvements in feedwater quality of the affected units to help mitigate the risk. (authors)

  1. Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

    2010-12-01

    Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

  2. Therapeutic outcomes, assessments, risk factors and mitigation efforts of immunogenicity of therapeutic protein products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Liusong; Chen, Xiaoying; Vicini, Paolo; Rup, Bonita; Hickling, Timothy P

    2015-06-01

    Therapeutic protein products (TPPs) are of considerable value in the treatment of a variety of diseases, including cancer, hemophilia, and autoimmune diseases. The success of TPP mainly results from prolonged half-life, increased target specificity and decreased intrinsic toxicity compared with small molecule drugs. However, unwanted immune responses against TPP, such as generation of anti-drug antibody, can impact both drug efficacy and patient safety, which has led to requirements for increased monitoring in regulatory studies and clinical practice, termination of drug development, or even withdrawal of marketed products. We present an overview of current knowledge on immunogenicity of TPP and its impact on efficacy and safety. We also discuss methods for measurement and prediction of immunogenicity and review both product-related and patient-related risk factors that affect its development, and efforts that may be taken to mitigate it. Lastly, we discuss gaps in knowledge and technology and what is needed to fill these. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. International approaches to the hydraulic control of surface water runoff in mitigating flood and environmental risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ballard Bridget Woods

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares and contrasts a number of international approaches to the hydraulic control of surface water runoff from new development and redevelopment, known as sustainable drainage systems (SuDS or low impact development (LID. The paper provides a commentary on the progress and current status of national standards for SuDS in the UK to control the frequency, flow rate and volume of runoff from both frequent and extreme rainfall events, and the best practice design criteria presented in the revised UK CIRIA SuDS Manual, published in November 2015. The paper then compares these design criteria and standards with those developed and applied in China, USA, France and Germany and also looks at the drivers behind their development. The benefits of these different approaches are assessed in the context of flood risk mitigation, climate resilience and wider environmental protection objectives, including water quality, morphology and ecology. The paper also reviews the design approaches promoted by the new SuDS Manual and internationally for delivering additional benefits for urban spaces (such as recreation, visual character, education and economic growth through multi-functional urban design.

  4. Knowledge management system for risk mitigation in supply chain uncertainty: case from automotive battery supply chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marie, I. A.; Sugiarto, D.; Surjasa, D.; Witonohadi, A.

    2018-01-01

    Automotive battery supply chain include battery manufacturer, sulphuric acid suppliers, polypropylene suppliers, lead suppliers, transportation service providers, warehouses, retailers and even customers. Due to the increasingly dynamic condition of the environment, supply chain actors were required to improve their ability to overcome various uncertainty issues in the environment. This paper aims to describe the process of designing a knowledge management system for risk mitigation in supply chain uncertainty. The design methodology began with the identification of the knowledge needed to solve the problems associated with uncertainty and analysis of system requirements. The design of the knowledge management system was described in the form of a data flow diagram. The results of the study indicated that key knowledge area that needs to be managed were the knowledge to maintain the stability of process in sulphuric acid process and knowledge to overcome the wastes in battery manufacturing process. The system was expected to be a media acquisition, dissemination and storage of knowledge associated with the uncertainty in the battery supply chain and increase the supply chain performance.

  5. Does Media Literacy Mitigate Risk for Reduced Body Satisfaction Following Exposure to Thin-Ideal Media?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Siân A; Paxton, Susan J; Wertheim, Eleanor H

    2016-08-01

    Exposure to thin-ideal media can contribute to increased body dissatisfaction in adolescent girls. Understanding the factors that may prevent or exacerbate the negative effects of media exposure on body dissatisfaction is important to facilitate prevention of these problems. This study evaluated the effects of exposure to thin-ideal media images on body image in three instructional set experimental conditions: appearance comparison, peer norms, and control. An important aim was to examine baseline levels of media literacy as a protective factor and trait thin-ideal internalization and trait upward appearance comparison as risk factors. Early adolescent girls (N = 246) completed baseline measures and 1 week later viewed thin-ideal media images, before and after which they rated their state body satisfaction. Participants in the appearance comparison instruction but not peer norms instruction condition had significantly reduced body satisfaction. Media literacy, particularly high levels of critical thinking, mitigated the negative effects of trait thin-ideal internalization and trait upward appearance comparison on body satisfaction outcomes. These findings provide evidence for the role of media literacy as a protective factor against the negative effects on body satisfaction of exposure to thin-ideal media images, and also provide evidence to support the development and implementation of media literacy-based body image interventions.

  6. The Temblor mobile seismic risk app, v2: Rapid and seamless earthquake information to inspire individuals to recognize and reduce their risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.; Sevilgen, V.; Sevilgen, S.; Kim, A.; Jacobson, D. S.; Lotto, G. C.; Ely, G.; Bhattacharjee, G.; O'Sullivan, J.

    2017-12-01

    Temblor quantifies and personalizes earthquake risk and offers solutions by connecting users with qualified retrofit and insurance providers. Temblor's daily blog on current earthquakes, seismic swarms, eruptions, floods, and landslides makes the science accessible to the public. Temblor is available on iPhone, Android, and mobile web app platforms (http://temblor.net). The app presents both scenario (worst case) and probabilistic (most likely) financial losses for homes and commercial buildings, and estimates the impact of seismic retrofit and insurance on the losses and safety. Temblor's map interface has clickable earthquakes (with source parameters and links) and active faults (name, type, and slip rate) around the world, and layers for liquefaction, landslides, tsunami inundation, and flood zones in the U.S. The app draws from the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model and the 2014 USGS Building Seismic Safety Council ShakeMap scenari0 database. The Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) model is used worldwide, with active faults displayed in 75 countries. The Temblor real-time global catalog is merged from global and national catalogs, with aftershocks discriminated from mainshocks. Earthquake notifications are issued to Temblor users within 30 seconds of their occurrence, with approximate locations and magnitudes that are rapidly refined in the ensuing minutes. Launched in 2015, Temblor has 650,000 unique users, including 250,000 in the U.S. and 110,000 in Chile, as well as 52,000 Facebook followers. All data shown in Temblor is gathered from authoritative or published sources and is synthesized to be intuitive and actionable to the public. Principal data sources include USGS, FEMA, EMSC, GEM Foundation, NOAA, GNS Science (New Zealand), INGV (Italy), PHIVOLCS (Philippines), GSJ (Japan), Taiwan Earthquake Model, EOS Singapore (Southeast Asia), MTA (Turkey), PB2003 (plate boundaries), CICESE (Baja California), California Geological Survey, and 20 other state

  7. [Socio-environmental vulnerability, disaster risk-reduction and resilience-building: lessons from the earthquake in Haiti and torrential rains in the mountain range close to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Freitas, Carlos Machado; de Carvalho, Mauren Lopes; Ximenes, Elisa Francioli; Arraes, Eduardo Fonseca; Gomes, José Orlando

    2012-06-01

    Data on disasters around the world reveal greater seriousness in countries with lower social and economic development levels. In this context, disaster risk-reduction and resilience-building policies are priorities in the sustainable development agenda, featuring among the topics selected for the Rio+20 Summit. By means of a contribution of a conceptual nature and from examples of disasters in countries with different development levels, namely the Haiti earthquake and the torrential rains in the mountain range close to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, the scope of this article is to demonstrate how socio-environmental vulnerability creates conditions for disasters, while at the same time limiting strategies for their prevention and mitigation. Lastly, some of the measures that disaster risk reduction and resilience-building demand in a socio-environmental vulnerability context are highlighted. These involve changes in the current patterns of social, economic and environmental development geared toward ecological sustainability and social justice as pillars of sustainable development.

  8. Determination of Road Functionality for Küçükçekmece District Following a Scenario Earthquake for Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Betül Ergün Konukcu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Istanbul has been affected by earthquakes throughout its history. The most recent earthquake to shake Istanbul was on August 17 1999, along the North Anatolian Fault, 12 km southeast of the Izmit Province, with a magnitude of 7.4. Following the 1999 Izmit earthquake, the earthquake risk in Istanbul started to draw attention and many scientific studies were conducted on the potential earthquake risk in this city. Based on these studies, predictions are that Istanbul is going to face a major earthquake in the near future and this will cause severe damage to the built environment. It is estimated that the damage caused by the anticipated earthquake will be extensive as a consequence of Istanbul’s low quality building stock of Istanbul. The buildings that have the possibility of being damaged cause debris around them. If roadside buildings collapsed during the earthquake, the scattered parts of the buildings could cause roads to lose their functionality. Not only building damage but also transportation damage analysis is necessary to use risk mitigation studies and decisions, being that experiences showed that the functionality of transportation structure effects post-earthquake emergency response and recovery operation seriously. This study aims to reveal a method for road functionality in Küçükçekçekmece following a potential Istanbul Earthquake by using building collapse direction and bridge damage.

  9. Soil bio-engineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2009-07-01

    The use of soil bio-engineering techniques in developing countries is a relevant issue for disaster mitigation, environmental restoration and poverty reduction. Research on authochtonal plants suitable for this kind of works and on economic efficiency is essential for the divulgation of such techniques. The present paper is focused on this two issues related to the realization of various typologies of soil bio-engineering works in the humid tropic of Nicaragua. In the area of Río Blanco, located in the Department of Matagalpa, soil bio-engineering installations were built in several sites. The particular structures built were: drainages with live fascine mattress, a live palisade, a vegetated live crib wall for riverbank protection, a vegetative covering made of a metallic net and biotextile coupled with a live palisade made of bamboo. In order to evaluate the suitability of the various plants used in the works, monitorings were performed, one in the live palisade alongside an unpaved road and the other on the live crib wall along a riverbank, collecting survival rate and morphological parameters data. Concerning the economic efficiency we proceed to a financial analysis of the works and once the unit price was obtained, we converted the amount in EPP Dollars (Equal Purchasing Power) in order to compare the Nicaraguan context with the Italian one. Among the used species we found that Madero negro (Gliricidia sepium) and Roble macuelizo (Tabebuia rosea) are adequate for soil-bioengineering measure on slopes while Helequeme (Erythrina fusca) reported a successful behaviour only in the crib wall for riverbank protection. In the comparison of the costs in Nicaragua and in Italy, the unit price reduction for the Central American country ranges between 1.5 times (for the vegetative covering) and almost 4 times (for the fascine mattress) if it's used the EPP dollar exchange rate. Conclusions are reached with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a

  10. Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrone, A.; Preti, F.

    2010-02-01

    regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live) interventions are that they are not only socially and technically possible, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labour force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment), but also economically sustainable.

  11. Developing a scientific procedure for community based hazard mapping and risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrier, M.

    2011-12-01

    As an international exchange student from the Geological Sciences Department at San Diego State University (SDSU), I joined the KKN-PPM program at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in July 2011 for 12 days (July 4th to July 16th) of its two month duration (July 4th to August 25th). The KKN-PPM group I was attached was designated 154 and was focused in Plosorejo Village, Karanganyar, Kerjo, Central Java, Indonesia. The mission of KKN-PPM 154 was to survey Plosorejo village for existing landslides, to generate a simple hazard susceptibility map that can be understood by local villagers, and then to begin dissemination of that map into the community. To generate our susceptibility map we first conducted a geological survey of the existing landslides in the field study area, with a focus on determining landslide triggers and gauging areas for susceptibility for future landslides. The methods for gauging susceptibility included lithological observation, the presence of linear cracking, visible loss of structural integrity in structures such as villager homes, as well as collaboration with local residents and with the local rescue and response team. There were three color distinctions used in representing susceptibility which were green, where there is no immediate danger of landslide damage; orange, where transportation routes are at risk of being disrupted by landslides; and red, where imminent landslide potential puts a home in direct danger. The landslide inventory and susceptibility data was compiled into digital mediums such as CorelDraw, ArcGIS and Google Earth. Once a technical map was generated, we presented it to the village leadership for confirmation and modification based on their experience. Finally, we began to use the technical susceptibility map to draft evacuation routes and meeting points in the event of landslides, as well as simple susceptibility maps that can be understood and utilized by local villagers. Landslide mitigation

  12. Soil bioengineering for risk mitigation and environmental restoration in a humid tropical area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Petrone

    2010-02-01

    , using the EPP dollar exchange rate.

    Our conclusions with regard to hydrological-risk mitigating actions performed on a basin scale and through naturalistic (live interventions are that they are not only socially and technically possible, even in hardship areas (by maximizing the contribution of the local labour force and minimizing the use of mechanical equipment, but also economically sustainable.

  13. Offshore Earthquakes Do Not Influence Marine Mammal Stranding Risk on the Washington and Oregon Coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Rachel A.; Savirina, Anna

    2018-01-01

    Simple Summary Marine mammals stranding on coastal beaches is not unusual. However, there appears to be no single cause for this, with several causes being probable, such as starvation, contact with humans (for example boat strike or entanglement with fishing gear), disease, and parasitism. We evaluated marine mammal stranding off the Washington and Oregon coasts and looked at offshore earthquakes as a possible contributing factor. Our analysis showed that offshore earthquakes did not make marine mammals more likely to strand. We also analysed a subset of data from the north of Washington State and found that non-adult animals made up a large proportion of stranded animals, and for dead animals the commonest cause of death was disease, traumatic injury, or starvation. Abstract The causes of marine mammals stranding on coastal beaches are not well understood, but may relate to topography, currents, wind, water temperature, disease, toxic algal blooms, and anthropogenic activity. Offshore earthquakes are a source of intense sound and disturbance and could be a contributing factor to stranding probability. We tested the hypothesis that the probability of marine mammal stranding events on the coasts of Washington and Oregon, USA is increased by the occurrence of offshore earthquakes in the nearby Cascadia subduction zone. The analysis carried out here indicated that earthquakes are at most, a very minor predictor of either single, or large (six or more animals) stranding events, at least for the study period and location. We also tested whether earthquakes inhibit stranding and again, there was no link. Although we did not find a substantial association of earthquakes with strandings in this study, it is likely that there are many factors influencing stranding of marine mammals and a single cause is unlikely to be responsible. Analysis of a subset of data for which detailed descriptions were available showed that most live stranded animals were pups, calves, or

  14. Knowledge Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia: A Participative Workshop to Reduce Volcanic Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, M. F.; Cordoba, G. A.

    2009-12-01

    Galeras has been in nearly constant activity during modern historic times (roughly the past 500 years). Approximately 10,000 people live within an area designated as the highest-hazard and nearly 400,000 people are within areas of potential harmful effects. A wide variety of stakeholders are affected by the hazards, including: farmers, indigenous villagers, and people in urban environments. Hazards assessment and volcano monitoring are the responsibility of the Colombian Geological Survey (INGEOMINAS), whereas decisions regarding mitigation and response procedures are the responsibility of various governmental offices and the national emergency system (SNPAD). According to the current plan, when the risk level rises to a high level the people in the highest risk zone are required to evacuate. The volcano currently is in a very active, but fluctuating, condition and a future large eruption in a medium time frame (years to decades) is possible. There is a growing level of discomfort among many of the affected groups, including indigenous communities, farmers, and urban dwellers, related to the risk assessment. The general opinion prior to July 2009 was quite polarized as the decision makers saw the people of the region as poorly prepared to understand this hazard, whereas the population felt that their views were not being heard. The result was that the people in the hazardous areas decided not to evacuate, even during the current period of explosive activity. To resolve this situation the University of Nariño (Colombia) and the State University of New York at Buffalo organized a workshop named "Knowledge, Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Colombia" that was held in Pasto (Colombia), between 6 and 11 July, 2009. The general objective of this workshop was to analyze the existing hazard maps and safety plans for Galeras and form a bridge connecting scientists, decision makers, and other stake holders to promote a better

  15. Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Probabilistic Information on Climate Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi; Roshan, Elnaz; Held, Hermann

    2017-04-01

    In principle solar radiation management (SRM) offers an option to ameliorate anthropogenic temperature rise. However we cannot expect it to simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we ask to what extent a proponent of the 2°C-temperature target would apply SRM in conjunction with mitigation in view of global or regional disparities in precipitation changes. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that makes a trade-off between the expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and the climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in both global-scale and 'Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mixture of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including not only temperature risk, but also globally aggregated and regionally disaggregated precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized for the following three valuation scenarios: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. For now, the Giorgi regions are treated by equal weight. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SRM will be comparably more restricted. In the course of time, a cooling of up to 1.3°C can be attributed to SRM for the latter scenario and for a median climate sensitivity of 3°C (for a global target only, this number reduces by 0.5°C). Our results indicate that although SRM would almost completely substitute for mitigation in the globally aggregated analysis, it only saves 70% to 75% of the welfare-loss compared to a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, approximately 4% in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks in precipitation-risk-only and both-risks scenarios. It remains to be shown how the inclusion of further risks or different regional weights would

  16. Health care workers and researchers traveling to developing-world clinical settings: disease transmission risk and mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kortepeter, Mark G; Seaworth, Barbara J; Tasker, Sybil A; Burgess, Timothy H; Coldren, Rodney L; Aronson, Naomi E

    2010-12-01

    With the recent emphasis on funding and training opportunities for global health and humanitarian aid and the increased interest in the field, many health care workers and medical researchers are traveling from resource-replete to resource-limited settings. This type of travel brings unique disease risks not routinely considered for the business or vacationing traveler. This review provides practical advice for this special population of travelers, targeted to specific health care-related risks (needlestick, hemorrhagic fever viruses, severe viral respiratory disease, and tuberculosis), with suggestions for risk mitigation.

  17. Development of a harmonized risk mitigation toolbox dedicated to environmental risks of pesticides in farmland in Europe: outcome of the MAgPIE workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alix, A.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk mitigation measures are a key component in designing conditions of use of pesticides in crop protection. A 2-step workshop was organized under the auspices of SETAC and the European Commission and gathered risk assessors and risk managers of 21 European countries, industry, academia and agronomical advisors/extension services, in order to provide European regulatory authorities with a toolbox of risk mitigation measures designed to reduce environmental risks of pesticides used in agriculture, and thus contribute to a better harmonization within Europe in the area. The workshop gathered an inventory of the risk mitigation tools for pesticides being implemented or in development in European countries. The inventory was discussed in order to identify the most promising tools for a harmonized toolbox in the European area. The discussions concerned the level of confidence in the technical data on which the tools identified rely, possible regulatory hurdles, expectations as regards the implementation of these tools by farmers and links with risk assessment. Finally, this workshop was a first step towards a network gathering all stakeholders, i.e. experts from national authorities, research sector, industry and farmers, to share information and further develop this toolbox. This paper presents an outline of the content of the toolbox with an emphasis on spray drift reducing techniques, in line with the discussions ongoing in the SPISE workshop.

  18. Health Status and Risk Factors among Adolescent Survivors One Month after the 2014 Ludian Earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bihan Tang

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: An earthquake struck Ludian in Yunnan Province (China on 3 August 2014, resulting in 3143 injuries, 617 deaths, and 112 missing persons. Our study aimed at estimating the health status and associated determinants among adolescent survivors after the Ludian earthquake. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 845 was conducted at the Ludian No. 1 Middle School. Descriptive statistics, t-tests, ANOVA and stepwise linear regression analysis were used for data analysis. Results: The mean scores on the physical component summary (PCS and mental component summary (MCS were 46.23 (SD = 7.10 and 36.34 (SD = 7.09, respectively. Lower PCS scores in the aftermath of an earthquake were associated with being trapped or in danger, being female, being an ethnic minority, injury to self and house damage, while lower MSC scores were associated with fear during the earthquake, Han ethnicity, death in the family, not being involved in the rescue and low household income. Conclusions: In our study, significant associations between demographic, socio-economic, and trauma-related experiences variables and overall physical and mental health of adolescent survivors were presented. The results of this study help expand our knowledge of health status among adolescent survivors after the Ludian earthquake.

  19. Report by the 'Mega-earthquakes and mega-tsunamis' subgroup; Rapport du sous-groupe Sismique 'Megaseismes et megatsunamis'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedel, Jacques; Courtillot, Vincent; Dercourt, Jean; Jaupart, Claude; Le Pichon, Xavier; Poirier, Jean-Paul; Salencon, Jean; Tapponnier, Paul; Dautray, Robert; Carpentier, Alain; Taquet, Philippe; Blanchet, Rene; Le Mouel, Jean-Louis [Academie des sciences, 23, quai de Conti, 75006 Paris (France); BARD, Pierre-Yves [Observatoire des sciences de l' Univers de l' universite de Grenoble - OSUG, Universite Joseph Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9 (France); Bernard, Pascal; Montagner, Jean-Paul; Armijo, Rolando; Shapiro, Nikolai; Tait, Steve [Institut de physique du globe de Paris, 1, rue Jussieu - 75238 Paris cedex 05 (France); Cara, Michel [Ecole et Observatoire des sciences de la Terre de l' universite de Strasbourg - EOST, F-67084 Strasbourg cedex (France); Madariaga, Raul [Ecole normale superieure, 45, rue d' Ulm / 29, rue d' Ulm, F-75230 Paris cedex 05 (France); Pecker, Alain [Academie des technologies, Grand Palais des Champs Elysees - Porte C - Avenue Franklin D. Roosevelt - 75008 Paris (France); Schindele, Francois [CEA/DAM, DIF/DASE/SLDG, 91297 ARPAJON Cedex (France); Douglas, John [BRGM, 3 avenue Claude-Guillemin - BP 36009 - 45060 Orleans Cedex 2 (France)

    2011-06-15

    This report comprises a presentation of scientific data on subduction earthquakes, on tsunamis and on the Tohoku earthquake. It proposes a detailed description of the French situation (in the West Indies, in metropolitan France, and in terms of soil response), and a discussion of social and economic issues (governance, seismic regulation and nuclear safety, para-seismic protection of constructions). The report is completed by other large documents: presentation of data on the Japanese earthquake, discussion on prediction and governance errors in the management of earthquake mitigation in Japan, discussions on tsunami prevention, on needs of research on accelerometers, and on the seismic risk in France

  20. Evaluation of innovative means of hydrogen risk mitigation in thermonuclear fusion reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maruejouls, C.

    2003-01-01

    One of the main accidents in ITER-type thermonuclear fusion reactors is the loss of coolant leading to hydrogen production. Within the framework of the studies on the ITER fusion reactor, a mitigation strategy for this risk must be devised by focusing on a system, which can be placed near the hydrogen source. The uncertainty as to the air content during such a scenario forbids the use of classic methods based on the hydrogen/oxygen reaction such as passive catalytic recombiners. Former studies have proposed a process based on the reduction of metallic oxides and more particularly that of the manganese dioxide enhanced by silver oxide mixture. The reaction studied is H 2 + MnO 2 → MnO + H 2 O (reaction enhanced by Ag 2 O). The purpose is to study the kinetic. The method used consists in comparing the experimental results obtained on the pilot facility CIGNE with those provided by a model. The experimental results were obtained from tests made on a pilot facility with a solid/gas reaction in a fixed bed. These underlined the importance of favoring the solid/gas contact surface. The modeling used in the MITRHY simulation program, coupled to an optimizer helped determine the kinetic parameters and the data on the material and temperature transfers. The kinetic is of first order rate for hydrogen with an activation energy of 29428 J/mol and a kinetic coefficient of 142 m.s -1 . Integrated in the MITRHY program, the kinetic parameters were used to simulate the hydrogen elimination in the accident conditions on the ITER experimental reactor. This study achieved a pre-design basis of the device (bed of about 30 cm with grains of a diameter of less than 5 mm) to be implemented. It also underlined the need to favor the specific surface to improved process efficiency. (author)

  1. Ethical Concerns of and Risk Mitigation Strategies for Crowdsourcing Contests and Innovation Challenges: Scoping Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Stephen W; Mathews, Allison; Stein, Gabriella; Bayus, Barry; Rennie, Stuart

    2018-01-01

    Background Crowdsourcing contests (also called innovation challenges, innovation contests, and inducement prize contests) can be used to solicit multisectoral feedback on health programs and design public health campaigns. They consist of organizing a steering committee, soliciting contributions, engaging the community, judging contributions, recognizing a subset of contributors, and sharing with the community. Objective This scoping review describes crowdsourcing contests by stage, examines ethical problems at each stage, and proposes potential ways of mitigating risk. Methods Our analysis was anchored in the specific example of a crowdsourcing contest that our team organized to solicit videos promoting condom use in China. The purpose of this contest was to create compelling 1-min videos to promote condom use. We used a scoping review to examine the existing ethical literature on crowdsourcing to help identify and frame ethical concerns at each stage. Results Crowdsourcing has a group of individuals solve a problem and then share the solution with the public. Crowdsourcing contests provide an opportunity for community engagement at each stage: organizing, soliciting, promoting, judging, recognizing, and sharing. Crowdsourcing poses several ethical concerns: organizing—potential for excluding community voices; soliciting—potential for overly narrow participation; promoting—potential for divulging confidential information; judging—potential for biased evaluation; recognizing—potential for insufficient recognition of the finalist; and sharing—potential for the solution to not be implemented or widely disseminated. Conclusions Crowdsourcing contests can be effective and engaging public health tools but also introduce potential ethical problems. We present methods for the responsible conduct of crowdsourcing contests. PMID:29523500

  2. RAMSES: a nowcasting system for mitigating geo-hydrological risk along the railway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriele, Salvatore; Terranova, Oreste G.; Pascale, Stefania; Rago, Valeria; Chiaravalloti, Francesco; Sabatino, Pietro; Brocca, Luca; Laviola, Sante; Baldini, Luca; Federico, Stefano; Miglietta, Mario M.; Marra, Gian Paolo; Niccoli, Raffaele; Arcuri, Salvatore; Catalano, Filippo; Stassi, Sergio; Baccillieri, Maurizio; Agostino, Mario; Iovine, Giulio G. R.

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, a number of exceptional rainfall events of short / very short duration (from 15 minutes to about 2 hours) caused incidents and service interruptions due to landslides, collapses of bridges, and erosion of the ballast, along the Calabrian railway. RAMSES (RAilway Meteorological SEcurity System) is a pilot CNR project, recently co-funded by RFI S.p.A. and aimed at mitigating the risk along the railway. Forecasting of weather events responsible of heavy convective rainfall, even when provided with some advance, is not generally performed with reliable localization. In fact, objective limits of the numerical weather prediction derive from grid resolution, often exceeding the size of convective cells. These phenomena, whose recurrence periods seem to show a reduction due to climate changes, affect limited areas and are characterized by a very short life cycle. As a consequence, failures of hydraulic crossings are increasingly being recorded together with landslide-related debris invasion along the drainage network and slopes. RAMSES aims at improving short term (3-6 hours) weather forecasts and ground effects at local scale. The employed approach is base on synergistic and integrated operational tools to provide weather information on small-size basins. The system will also allow to promptly identify and track the short-term evolution (15-60 min) of convective cells, by means of imaging techniques based on quasi-real time radar and Meteosat data. The extension of the temporal horizon of the forecast up to three hours will be performed by using the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) model. This latter employs, as a "first guess", the output of the WRF numerical model: such analyses are updated and improved by means of observational data from different instruments (e.g. on land weather stations, radar, satellites, etc.). Finally, the assessment of ground effects will be accomplished for selected study areas, by means of landslide susceptibility

  3. SCOPE of Pain: An Evaluation of an Opioid Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Continuing Education Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alford, Daniel P; Zisblatt, Lara; Ng, Pamela; Hayes, Sean M; Peloquin, Sophie; Hardesty, Ilana; White, Julie L

    2016-01-01

    Due to the high prevalence of prescription opioid misuse, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) mandated a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) requiring manufacturers of extended-release/long-acting (ER/LA) opioid analgesics to fund continuing education based on a FDA Blueprint. This article describes the Safe and Competent Opioid Prescribing Education (SCOPE of Pain) program, an ER/LA opioid analgesic REMS program, and its impact on clinician knowledge, confidence, attitudes, and self-reported clinical practice. Participants of the 3-h SCOPE of Pain training completed pre-, immediate post- and 2-month post-assessments. The primary target group (n = 2,850), and a subset (n = 476) who completed a 2-month post-assessment, consisted of clinicians licensed to prescribe ER/LA opioid analgesics, who care for patients with chronic pain and who completed the 3-h training between February 28, 2013 and June 13, 2014. Immediately post-program, there was a significant increase in correct responses to knowledge questions (60% to 84%, P ≤ 0.02) and 87% of participants planned to make practice changes. At 2-months post-program, there continued to be a significant increase in correct responses to knowledge questions (60% to 69%, P ≤ 0.03) and 67% reported increased confidence in applying safe opioid prescribing care and 86% reported implementing practice changes. There was also an improvement in alignment of desired attitudes toward safe opioid prescribing. The SCOPE of Pain program improved knowledge, attitudes, confidence, and self-reported clinical practice in safe opioid prescribing. This national REMS program holds potential to improve the safe use of opioids for the treatment of chronic pain. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Academy of Pain Medicine. 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

  4. Alaska earthquake source for the SAFRR tsunami scenario: Chapter B in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Stephen; Scholl, David; von Huene, Roland E.; Wells, Ray

    2013-01-01

    Tsunami modeling has shown that tsunami sources located along the Alaska Peninsula segment of the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone have the greatest impacts on southern California shorelines by raising the highest tsunami waves for a given source seismic moment. The most probable sector for a Mw ~ 9 source within this subduction segment is between Kodiak Island and the Shumagin Islands in what we call the Semidi subduction sector; these bounds represent the southwestern limit of the 1964 Mw 9.2 Alaska earthquake rupture and the northeastern edge of the Shumagin sector that recent Global Positioning System (GPS) observations indicate is currently creeping. Geological and geophysical features in the Semidi sector that are thought to be relevant to the potential for large magnitude, long-rupture-runout interplate thrust earthquakes are remarkably similar to those in northeastern Japan, where the destructive Mw 9.1 tsunamigenic earthquake of 11 March 2011 occurred. In this report we propose and justify the selection of a tsunami source seaward of the Alaska Peninsula for use in the Tsunami Scenario that is part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Project. This tsunami source should have the potential to raise damaging tsunami waves on the California coast, especially at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Accordingly, we have summarized and abstracted slip distribution from the source literature on the 2011 event, the best characterized for any subduction earthquake, and applied this synoptic slip distribution to the similar megathrust geometry of the Semidi sector. The resulting slip model has an average slip of 18.6 m and a moment magnitude of Mw = 9.1. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake was not anticipated, despite Japan having the best seismic and geodetic networks in the world and the best historical record in the world over the past 1,500 years. What was lacking was adequate paleogeologic data on prehistoric earthquakes

  5. Earthquake Risk Management of Underground Lifelines in the Urban Area of Catania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grasso, S.; Maugeri, M.

    2008-01-01

    Lifelines typically include the following five utility networks: potable water, sewage natural gas, electric power, telecommunication and transportation system. The response of lifeline systems, like gas and water networks, during a strong earthquake, can be conveniently evaluated with the estimated average number of ruptures per km of pipe. These ruptures may be caused either by fault ruptures crossing, or by permanent deformations of the soil mass (landslides, liquefaction), or by transient soil deformations caused by seismic wave propagation. The possible consequences of damaging earthquakes on transportation systems may be the reduction or the interruption of traffic flow, as well as the impact on the emergency response and on the recovery assistance. A critical element in the emergency management is the closure of roads due to fallen obstacles and debris of collapsed buildings.The earthquake-induced damage to buried pipes is expressed in terms of repair rate (RR), defined as the number of repairs divided by the pipe length (km) exposed to a particular level of seismic demand; this number is a function of the pipe material (and joint type), of the pipe diameter and of the ground shaking level, measured in terms of peak horizontal ground velocity (PGV) or permanent ground displacement (PGD). The development of damage algorithms for buried pipelines is primarily based on empirical evidence, tempered with engineering judgment and sometimes by analytical formulations.For the city of Catania, in the present work use has been made of the correlation between RR and peak horizontal ground velocity by American Lifelines Alliance (ALA, 2001), for the verifications of main buried pipelines. The performance of the main buried distribution networks has been evaluated for the Level I earthquake scenario (January 11, 1693 event I = XI, M 7.3) and for the Level II earthquake scenario (February 20, 1818 event I = IX, M 6.2).Seismic damage scenario of main gas pipelines and

  6. Communicating risk and promoting disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiavo, Renata; May Leung, May; Brown, Mason

    2014-03-01

    This review aims to identify and assess evidence on interventions to communicate risk and promote disease mitigation measures in epidemics and emerging disease outbreak settings. The study focuses on data that are relevant to low and middle-income country (LMIC) settings. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using five major electronic databases (Pubmed Medline, Biomed Central, EMBASE, Science of Citation Index, and Cochrane Library) and other sources to identify relevant studies published from January 2002 to July 2013. The review was guided by the socio-ecological model/perspective of public health and the ideation theory and focused on interventions at the community, healthcare, and multi-sectoral settings, which also reflect key intervention levels of the Ottawa Charter for Health Promotion. Eligible quantitative studies were selected according to specific study criteria and assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Program (CASP) framework. Conversely, qualitative studies, reviews, case studies, and editorials were not included. Studies were selected by two independent reviewers. Twenty-nine relevant studies from 16 countries were included. Most studies focused on a single intervention or intervention level, rather than multi-sectoral interventions. The majority of the evidence relates to programs aimed at behavioral and social results (or relevant intermediate steps) within a specific population group. Two studies included implications for improvements in health service delivery, two studies examined the intervention's impact on health systems-related outcomes, and three had also implications for environmental health outcomes. Cost- and health equity-related implications for select evidence were also discussed. The paucity of well-designed quantitative evaluations of interventions to communicate health risk and promote disease control measures in LMICs does not allow for any definitive conclusions. Yet, the review identified several promising

  7. Earthquake induced liquefaction hazard, probability and risk assessment in the city of Kolkata, India: its historical perspective and deterministic scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Sankar Kumar; Srivastava, Nishtha; Ghatak, Chitralekha; Adhikari, Manik Das; Ghosh, Ambarish; Sinha Ray, S. P.

    2018-01-01

    Liquefaction-induced ground failure is one amongst the leading causes of infrastructure damage due to the impact of large earthquakes in unconsolidated, non-cohesive, water saturated alluvial terrains. The city of Kolkata is located on the potentially liquefiable alluvial fan deposits of Ganga-Bramhaputra-Meghna Delta system with subsurface litho-stratigraphic sequence comprising of varying percentages of clay, cohesionless silt, sand, and gravel interbedded with decomposed wood and peat. Additionally, the region has moderately shallow groundwater condition especially in the post-monsoon seasons. In view of burgeoning population, there had been unplanned expansion of settlements in the hazardous geological, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions exposing the city to severe liquefaction hazard. The 1897 Shillong and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes both of M w 8.1 reportedly induced Modified Mercalli Intensity of IV-V and VI-VII respectively in the city reportedly triggering widespread to sporadic liquefaction condition with surface manifestation of sand boils, lateral spreading, ground subsidence, etc., thus posing a strong case for liquefaction potential analysis in the terrain. With the motivation of assessing seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk of the city of Kolkata through a consorted federal funding stipulated for all the metros and upstart urban centers in India located in BIS seismic zones III, IV, and V with population more than one million, an attempt has been made here to understand the liquefaction susceptibility condition of Kolkata under the impact of earthquake loading employing modern multivariate techniques and also to predict deterministic liquefaction scenario of the city in the event of a probabilistic seismic hazard condition with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and a return period of 475 years. We conducted in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations in the city encompassing 435 km2 area. The stochastically

  8. Intensity ramp-up: 2011 experience - Limitations, mitigation, risks, strategy, pushing it in 2012, 1380 in 3 weeks?

    CERN Document Server

    Zerlauth, M; Wenninger, J

    2012-01-01

    This paper will discuss the experience with ramping up the beam intensities in the early days of the 2011 run and after the subsequent technical stops. Weak points and limitations are being identified and their possible mitigations evaluated. In view of the risks and drawbacks of a too aggressive approach, possible improvements of the applied strategy whilst maintaining the required validation points for the various equipment and machine protection systems (MPS) are being discussed.

  9. Observational studies to mitigate seismic risks in mines: a new Japanese-South African collaborative research project

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Durrheim, RJ

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available and High Stress Mining, 6-8 October 2010, Santiago CHILE 1 Observational studies to mitigate seismic risks in mines: a new Japanese - South African collaborative research project R.J. Durrheim SATREPS*, CSIR Centre for Mining Innovation.... 3. To upgrade the South African national seismic network. The project is carried out under the auspices of the SATREPS (Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development) program "Countermeasures towards Global Issues through...

  10. FIELD NOTES: PEOPLE, PROGRAMS, & POLICIES Farmers' Market Produce Delivery Program for Mitigating Nutritional Risk in Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dover, Sally E; Buys, David R; Allocca, Sally; Locher, Julie L

    2013-01-01

    Community-dwelling older adults in disadvantaged neighborhoods may face nutritional risks not mitigated by existing programs. The Senior Market Basket Program, administered by nonprofit organization P.E.E.R., Inc., is a unique approach to serving community-dwelling senior adults and a valuable model for integrating targeted social services into local food systems. The program ensures access to fresh produce during the growing season for a defined target population.

  11. Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

    2015-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this project aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. This proposal assesses societal transformations from the perspective of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. Yet each risk mitigation measure is built on a narrative of exchanges and relations between people and therefore may condition the outputs. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this project will focus on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. The policy dimension of adaptation, predominantly decisions on the societal admissible level of vulnerability and risk, will be evaluated by a human-environment interaction approach using multiple methods and the assessment of social capacities of stakeholders across scales. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. In addressing the relationship between these dimensions of adaptation on different temporal and spatial scales, this

  12. Flood risk and mitigation strategies in the southeastern suburbs of Fez City (Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akdim, Brahim

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The risk of flooding in the south-eastern suburbs of Fez (Morocco was engendered by multiple factors (topographic, hydro-climatic, land use, social, technical. This study focuses on the Aouinate El Hajjaj district and shows that the district’s evolution, characterized by informal transactions (speculation, land squatting, construction without respect of norms and regulations was a major factor in the genesis of flood risk as the district extended into vulnerable sectors. Public efforts to resolve the district’s crisis and reinforce its environmental safety began in 1993 (2 dams and channels were constructed, street were paved and basic facilities were provided, such as drinking water, sanitation and electricity, but the risk factors persist. Technical solutions are locally recognized to be useful, but they are not sufficient. Other mitigating actions including the reduction of physical and socioeconomic vulnerability and the strengthening of the social structure of the community should be considered in a systemic point of view. They constitute elements of an alternative strategy in urban planning and development and must be framed by laws and regulations. Their use could be undertaken at individual, community and State levels depending on the specific dimension of each measure. A vision which integrates local and regional scales is essential in risk studies, in order to design a more sustainable action. The role of non-governmental organisations is important in flood mitigation and urban environmental policy. The incorporation of flood prevention as a parameter of urban planning should be considered by planners and the local population.En los suburbios del sudeste de Fez (Marruecos el riesgo de inundaciones responde a fenómenos de diversa naturaleza física y humana (topográficos, hidrológicos, climáticos, utilización del suelo, factores sociales y técnicos. En este trabajo se analiza la situación del distrito de Aouinate El Hajjaj

  13. NASA Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation Remediation Technology Collaboration Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romeo, James

    2013-01-01

    NASA is committed to finding solutions to agency cleanup problems that are better, cheaper, and more effective than the status quo. Unfortunately, some potential solutions involve innovative technologies for which NASA remediation managers may not have a high level of understanding or confidence. Since 2004, NASA's Stennis Space Center (SSC) in Mississippi has been pumping groundwater contaminated with trichloroethylene (TCE) and other halogenated volatile organic compounds (HVOC) from their cleanup location designated "Area G" through extraction wells to an aboveground treatment system. Over time, however, the effectiveness of this treatment strategy has diminished and an alternative approach is needed. In 2012, professionals from NASA's Principal Center for Technology Evaluation for Environmental Risk Mitigation (TEERM) introduced SSC managers to an innovative technology for enhancing the performance of SSC's existing pump and treat system. The technology, generally referred to as in situ chemical oxidation (ISCO), involves slowly and continuously injecting a strong but safe chemical oxidant into the groundwater. Treatment is enhanced by a "surfactant-type effect" which causes residual contamination from saturated soil to be released into the dissolved-phase where it can be readily oxidized. Any dissolved-phase contamination that was not oxidized can be collected by the extraction well network and treated aboveground. SSC was not familiar with the technology so to increase their confidence, TEERM identified a contractor who was willing to demonstrate their product and process at a significantly reduced price. An initial, small-scale demonstration of ISCO began at sse in March 2012 and completed in August 2012. This successful demonstration was followed by three larger-scale ISCO demonstrations between August and December 2012. The contractor's innovative Continuous Injection System (CIS) incorporated "green" and sustainable technologies and practices. A slow

  14. UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Edward H.; ,

    2015-01-01

    With innovations, fresh data, and lessons learned from recent earthquakes, scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, a region under constant threat from potentially damaging events. The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF" (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Overall the results confirm previous findings, but with some significant changes because of model improvements. For example, compared to the previous forecast (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2), the likelihood of moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.5) is lower, whereas that of larger events is higher. This is because of the inclusion of multifault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously. The public-safety implications of this and other model improvements depend on several factors, including site location and type of structure (for example, family dwelling compared to a long-span bridge). Building codes, earthquake insurance products, emergency plans, and other risk-mitigation efforts will be updated accordingly. This model also serves as a reminder that damaging earthquakes are inevitable for California. Fortunately, there are many simple steps residents can take to protect lives and property.

  15. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  16. A Combined Methodology for Landslide Risk Mitigation in Basilicata Region by Using LIDAR Technique and Rockfall Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Colangelo

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Rockfalls represent a significant geohazards along the SS18 road of Basilicata Region, Italy. The management of these rockfall hazards and the mitigation of the risk require innovative approaches and technologies. This paper discusses a hazard assessment strategy and risk mitigation for rockfalls in a section of SS118, along the coast of Maratea, using LIDAR technique and spatial modelling. Historical rockfall records were used to calibrate the physical characteristics of the rockfall processes. The results of the simulations were used to define the intervention actions and engineering strategy for the mitigation of the phenomena. Within two months, 260 linear meters of high-energy rockfall barriers for impact energies up to 3000 kJ were installed. After that, according to road authority, the SS18 road was opened in a safe condition. The results represent a valid cognitive support to choose the most appropriate technical solution for topography strengthening and an example of good practice for the cooperation between innovative technologies and field emergency management.

  17. Reproductive health and access to healthcare facilities: risk factors for depression and anxiety in women with an earthquake experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Jasim; Mpofu, Elias; Matthews, Lynda R; Shadoul, Ahmed Farah; Brock, Kaye E

    2011-06-30

    The reproductive and mental health of women contributes significantly to their overall well-being. Three of the eight Millennium Development Goals are directly related to reproductive and sexual health while mental disorders make up three of the ten leading causes of disease burden in low and middle-income countries. Among mental disorders, depression and anxiety are two of the most prevalent. In the context of slower progress in achieving Millennium Development Goals in developing countries and the ever-increasing man-made and natural disasters in these areas, it is important to understand the association between reproductive health and mental health among women with post-disaster experiences. This was a cross-sectional study with a sample of 387 women of reproductive age (15-49 years) randomly selected from the October 2005 earthquake affected areas of Pakistan. Data on reproductive health was collected using the Centers for Disease Control reproductive health assessment toolkit. Depression and anxiety were measured using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25, while earthquake experiences were captured using the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire. The association of either depression or anxiety with socio-demographic variables, earthquake experiences, reproductive health and access to health facilities was estimated using multivariate logistic regression. Post-earthquake reproductive health events together with economic deprivation, lower family support and poorer access to health care facilities explained a significant proportion of differences in the experiencing of clinical levels of depression and anxiety. For instance, women losing resources for subsistence, separation from family and experiencing reproductive health events such as having a stillbirth, having had an abortion, having had abnormal vaginal discharge or having had genital ulcers, were at significant risk of depression and anxiety. The relationship between women's post-earthquake mental health and

  18. Geoethics and decision science issues in Japan's disaster management system: case study in the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugimoto, Megumi

    2015-04-01

    The March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and its tsunami killed 18,508 people, including the missing (National Police Agency report as of April 2014) and raise the Level 7 accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station in Japan. The problems revealed can be viewed as due to a combination of risk-management, risk-communication, and geoethics issues. Japan's preparations for earthquakes and tsunamis are based on the magnitude of the anticipated earthquake for each region. The government organization coordinating the estimation of anticipated earthquakes is the "Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion" (HERP), which is under the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). Japan's disaster mitigation system is depicted schematically as consisting of three layers: seismology, civil engineering, and disaster mitigation planning. This research explains students in geoscience should study geoethics as part of their education related Tohoku earthquake and the Level 7 accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station. Only when they become practicing professionals, they will be faced with real geoethical dilemmas. A crisis such as the 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident, will force many geoscientists to suddenly confront previously unanticipated geoethics and risk-communication issues. One hopes that previous training will help them to make appropriate decisions under stress. We name it "decision science".

  19. Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

    2012-04-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of

  20. US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari; Mundra, Anupriya

    2015-01-01

    We estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops’ yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming’s economic effects on major crops are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B). (letter)

  1. A burning problem: social dynamics of disaster risk reduction through wildfire mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan Charnley; Melissa R. Poe; Alan A. Ager; Thomas A. Spies; Emily K. Platt; Keith A. Olsen

    2015-01-01

    Disasters result from hazards affecting vulnerable people. Most disasters research by anthropologists focuses on vulnerability; this article focuses on natural hazards. We use the case of wildfire mitigation on United States Forest Service lands in the northwestern United States to examine social, political, and economic variables at multiple scales that influence fire...

  2. Avoiding an uncertain catastrophe: Climate change mitigation under risk and wealth heterogeneity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Brown; Stephan Kroll

    2017-01-01

    For environmental problems such as climate change, uncertainty about future conditions makes it difficult to know what the goal of mitigation efforts should be, and inequality among the affected parties makes it hard for them to know how much they each should do toward reaching the goal. We examine the effects of scientific uncertainty and wealth inequality in...

  3. Outreach programs, peer pressure, and common sense: What motivates homeowners to mitigate wildfire risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah M. McCaffrey; Melanie Stidham; Eric Toman; Bruce. Shindler

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, altered forest conditions, climate change, and the increasing numbers of homes built in fire prone areas has meant that wildfires are affecting more people. An important part of minimizing the potential negative impacts of wildfire is engaging homeowners in mitigating the fire hazard on their land. It is therefore important to understand what makes...

  4. Trait Acclimation Mitigates Mortality Risks of Tropical Canopy Trees under Global Warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterck, Frank; Anten, Niels P.R.; Schieving, Feike; Zuidema, Pieter A.

    2016-01-01

    There is a heated debate about the effect of global change on tropical forests. Many scientists predict large-scale tree mortality while others point to mitigating roles of CO2 fertilization and – the notoriously unknown – physiological trait acclimation of trees. In this opinion article we provided

  5. The association between exposure and psychological health in earthquake survivors from the Longmen Shan Fault area: the mediating effect of risk perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiuping Xu

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In this study, exposure refers to survivors who suffered from life-changing situations, such as personal injuries, the deaths or injury of family members, relatives or friends or the loss of or damage to personal or family property, as a result of the earthquake. The mediating effect of risk perception on the exposure and psychological health in survivors from the Longmen Shan Fault area and the moderating effect of social support on the relationship between risk perception and psychological health were both examined. Method A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a local Longmen Shan Fault area near the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV, the standard Chinese 12-item Short Form (SF-12v2, and the Social Support Rating Scale (SSRS were used to interview 2,080 earthquake survivors in the period one-year after the earthquake. Based on the environment and the characteristics of the Longmen Shan Fault area, a risk perception questionnaire was developed to evaluate survivor risk perception. Factor and regression analyses were conducted to determine the hypothetical relations. Results The analyses provided effective support for the hypothesized model. Survivor risk perception was classified into direct risk perception and indirect risk perception. Survivor direct risk perception was found to play a partial mediating role in the relationship between exposure and the two domains (Physical component summary (PCS and the Mental component summary (MCS of psychological health. Survivor indirect risk perception was found to have a only partial mediating effect on the association between exposure and MCS. Social support was found to moderate the influence of risk perception on psychological health. Conclusion Risk communication should be considered in future post-earthquake psychological assistance programs and social support strategies could also be

  6. Evaluation of strategies for promoting effective radon mitigation. Risk communication and economic research series. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doyle, J.K.; McClelland, G.H.; Schulze, W.D.; Locke, P.A.; Elliott, S.R.

    1990-03-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency has estimated that as many as 20,000 lung cancer deaths per year in the United States can be attributed to exposure to radon gas. The report evaluates alternative strategies for motivating people to test for radon gas in their homes and to mitigate if necessary. Specifically, two separate radon information and awareness programs were evaluated, one targeted to the general population in the Washington, D.C. area and the other to home buyers in the Boulder, Colorado area. The results suggest that a home buyer program is likely to be far more effective in terms of effective remediation to reduce home radon levels than a program aimed at the general population. The report discusses the empirical findings and develops a recommendation for increasing the effectiveness of radon awareness and mitigation programs

  7. [The hazards of reconstruction: anthropology of dwelling and social health risk in the L'Aquila (Central Italy) post-earthquake].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciccozzi, Antonello

    2016-01-01

    Even starting from the purpose of restoring the damage caused by a natural disaster, the post-earthquake reconstructions imply the risk of triggering a set of social disasters that may affect the public health sphere. In the case of the L'Aquila earthquake this risk seems to emerge within the urban planning on two levels of dwelling: at a landscape level, where there has been a change in the shape of the city towards a sprawling-sprinkling process; at an architectural level, on the problematic relationship between the politics and the poetics of cultural heritage protection and the goal to get restoration works capable to ensure the citizens seismic safety.

  8. Money Matters: Mitigating risk to spark private investments in energy efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Scaling-up investment in energy efficiency is essential to achieving a sustainable energy future. Despite energy efficiency's recognised advantages as a bankable investment with immense climate change mitigation benefits, most of the energy efficiency potential remains untapped and the investment gap to achieve climate goals is tremendous. This report seeks to improve understanding as to why this is so, and what can be done about it.

  9. Money Matters: Mitigating risk to spark private investments in energy efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Scaling-up investment in energy efficiency is essential to achieving a sustainable energy future. Despite energy efficiency's recognised advantages as a bankable investment with immense climate change mitigation benefits, most of the energy efficiency potential remains untapped and the investment gap to achieve climate goals is tremendous. This report seeks to improve understanding as to why this is so, and what can be done about it.

  10. International study of risk-mitigating factors and in-flight allergic reactions to peanut and tree nut.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhawt, Matthew; MacGillivray, Fiona; Batty, Geraldine; Said, Maria; Weiss, Christopher

    2013-03-01

    Three studies have analyzed in-flight peanut/tree nut reactions, although the studies were conducted exclusively among Americans. We studied the international in-flight experience and determined the efficacy of certain risk-mitigation strategies. A 47-question on-line survey was distributed through the websites and social media outlets of the member organizations of the Food Allergy & Anaphylaxis Alliance. Both persons reporting an in-flight reaction and nonreactors were surveyed to assess details of air travel preparation and any reported reaction. Data were analyzed to determine the association among flying behaviors, reported reactions, and nationality. We found that 349 reactions were reported among 3273 respondents from 11 countries; 13.3% received epinephrine as treatment. Flight crews were notified about 50.1% of reactions. Sixty-nine percent of all respondents reported making a preflight accommodation request, although just 55% of reactors did so compared with 71.6% of nonreactors (P airline pillows or blankets, requested a buffer zone, requested other passengers not consume peanut/tree nut-containing products, or reported not consuming airline-provided food had significantly lower adjusted odds of reporting a reaction. In-flight peanut and tree nut reactions occur internationally. Epinephrine was sparsely used to treat reactions. We identified 8 risk-mitigating behaviors associated with lower odds of a reported reaction. Future study is necessary to further validate the effectiveness of these passenger-initiated risk-mitigating behaviors. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) by Multi-parametric Observations: Preliminary Results of PRIME experiment within the PRE-EARTHQUAKES EU-FP7 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tramutoli, V.; Inan, S.; Jakowski, N.; Pulinets, S. A.; Romanov, A.; Filizzola, C.; Shagimuratov, I.; Pergola, N.; Ouzounov, D. P.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Parrot, M.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Alparlsan, E.; Wilken, V.; Tsybukia, K.; Romanov, A.; Paciello, R.; Zakharenkova, I.; Romano, G.

    2012-12-01

    The integration of different observations together with the refinement of data analysis methods, is generally expected to improve our present knowledge of preparatory phases of earthquakes and of their possible precursors. This is also the main goal of PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) the FP7 Project which, to this aim, committed together, different international expertise and observational capabilities, in the last 2 years. In the learning phase of the project, different parameters (e.g. thermal anomalies, total electron content, radon concentration, etc.), measured from ground and satellite systems and analyzed by using different data analysis approaches, have been studied for selected geographic areas and specific seismic events in the past. Since July 2012 the PRIME (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Real-time Integration and Monitoring Experiment) started attempting to perform, on the base of independent observations collected and integrated in real-time through the PEG (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Geo-portal), a Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) on selected geographic areas of Europe (Italy-Greece-Turkey) and Asia (Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Japan). In this paper, results so far achieved as well as the potential and opportunities they open for a worldwide Earthquake Observation System (EQuOS) - as a dedicated component of GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) - will be presented.

  12. Attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and mitigation and adaptation behavior in Yunlin County, Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yung-Jaan; Tung, Chuan-Ming; Lin, Shih-Chien

    2018-02-08

    Issues that are associated with climate change have global importance. Most related studies take a national or regional perspective on the impact of climate change. Taiwan is constrained by its geographical conditions, which increase its vulnerability to climate change, especially in its western coastal areas. The county that is most affected by climate change is Yunlin. In 2013-2014, projects that were sponsored by Taiwan's government analyzed the relationship among synthesized vulnerability, ecological footprint (EF) and adaptation to climate change and proposed 15 categories of synthesized vulnerability and EF values. This study further examines the relationship between vulnerability and EF values and examines how residents of four townships-Linnei, Sihu, Mailiao, and Huwei-cope with the effects of climate change. This study investigates whether the residents of the four townships vary in their attitudes to climate change, their perceptions of disaster risk, and their behavioral intentions with respect to coping with climate change. The structural equation model (SEM) is used to examine the relationships among attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and the behavioral intentions of residents in townships with various vulnerabilities to climate change. The results that are obtained using the SEM reveal that climate change mitigation/adaptation behavior is affected by attitudes to climate change and perceptions of disaster risk. However, the effects of attitudes and perceptions on mitigation and adaptation that are mediated by place attachment are not statistically significant.

  13. Comparative Analysis of Supply Risk-Mitigation Strategies for Critical Byproduct Minerals: A Case Study of Tellurium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustamante, Michele L; Gaustad, Gabrielle; Alonso, Elisa

    2018-01-02

    Materials criticality assessment is a screening framework increasingly applied to identify materials of importance that face scarcity risks. Although these assessments highlight materials for the implicit purpose of informing future action, the aggregated nature of their findings make them difficult to use for guidance in developing nuanced mitigation strategy and policy response. As a first step in the selection of mitigation strategies, the present work proposes a modeling framework and accompanying set of metrics to directly compare strategies by measuring effectiveness of risk reduction as a function of the features of projected supply demand balance over time. The work focuses on byproduct materials, whose criticality is particularly important to understand because their supplies are inherently less responsive to market balancing forces, i.e., price feedbacks. Tellurium, a byproduct of copper refining, which is critical to solar photovoltaics, is chosen as a case study, and three commonly discussed byproduct-relevant strategies are selected: dematerialization of end-use product, byproduct yield improvement, and end-of-life recycling rate improvement. Results suggest that dematerialization will be nearly twice as effective at reducing supply risk as the next best option, yield improvement. Finally, due to its infrequent use at present and its dependence upon long product lifespans, recycling end-of-life products is expected to be the least effective option despite potentially offering other benefits (e.g., cost savings and environmental impact reduction).

  14. Economic aspects of hydro geological risk mitigation measures management in Italy: the ReNDiS project experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spizzichino, D.; Campobasso, C.; Gallozzi, P. L.; Dessi', B.; Traversa, F.

    2009-04-01

    ReNDiS project is a useful tool for monitoring, analysis and management of information data on mitigation measures and restoration works of soil protection at national scale. The main scope of the project, and related monitoring activities, is to improve the knowledge about the use of national funds and efforts against floods and landslides risk and, as a consequence, to better address the preventive policies in future. Since 1999 after the disastrous mudflow event occurred in Sarno in 1998, which caused the loss of 160 human lives, an extraordinary effort was conducted by the Italian Government in order to promote preventive measures against the hydro geological risk over the entire Italian territory. The Italian Ministry for the Environment promoted several and annual soil protection programmes. The ReNDiS project (Repertory of mitigation measures for National Soil Protection) is carried out by ISPRA - Institute for Environmental protection and Research, with the aim of improving the knowledge about the results of preventive policies against floods and landslides in order to better address national funds as requested by the Minister itself. The repertory is composed by a main archive and two secondary interface, the first for direct data management (ReNDiS-ist) and the latter (ReNDiS-web) for the on-line access and public consultation. At present, ReNDiS database contains about 3000 records concerning those programmes, focused on restoration works but including also information on landslide typologies and processes. The monitoring project is developed taking into account all the information about each step of every mitigation measure from the initial funding phase until the end of the work. During present work, we have statistically analyzed the ReNDiS database in order to highlight the conformity between the characteristic and type of the hazard (identified in a specific area) and the corresponding mitigation measures adopted for risk reduction. Through specific

  15. How to provide risk information. Based on citizen's evaluation of messages concerning radiation protection and anti-earthquake measures of nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuchiya, Tomoko; Kosugi, Motoko; Nakamura, Yasushi; Takahashi, Shigeaki; Harayama, Satoko

    2009-01-01

    The Framework for Nuclear Energy Policy in Japan, decided in 2005, requests implementation of risk communication to regain social trust on nuclear industry. Electric power companies, however, have few experiences of providing risk information as the first step of risk communication. This report analyzes which message is understandable, useful and trustworthy, by comparing two sets of different messages concerning radiation protection and anti-earthquake measures of nuclear power plant, respectively, based on interview survey for 30 people live in Tokyo metropolitan area. Participants in our survey evaluate the message about radiation protection including risk information is more reliable than one without risk information, but the former is less understandable and more anxious than the latter. In the case of messages regarding seismic measures of nuclear power plant, people are not satisfied with the argument which anti-earthquake measures are implemented, but want to know adequate grounds on which to admit that those measures are thorough. Another message of seismic measures we drafted contains basic knowledge about scales of earthquake, and shows that nuclear industry will consider bigger earthquake than ones in the past records, learn from past experience and improve their measures. 70% of participants assess this message more understandable, useful and trustworthy than the other to explain only seismic measures implemented. (author)

  16. System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Adam David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mohagheghi, Amir H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cohn, Brian [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Osborn, Douglas M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Katherine A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); DeMenno, Mercy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Thomas, Maikael A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Parks, Ethan Rutledge [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Parks, Mancel Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jeantete, Brian A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-09-01

    In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) and system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.

  17. Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis : an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krywkow, J.; Raaijmakers, Ruud; Krywkow, Jörg; van der Veen, A.

    2007-01-01

    The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the

  18. Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi - criteria analysis : an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raaijmakers, R.; Raaijmakers, Ruud; Krywkow, Jorg; van der Veen, A.

    2008-01-01

    The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the

  19. Flood risk perceptions and spatial multi-criteria analysis: an exploratory research for hazard mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raaijmakers, R.; Raaijmakers, Ruud; Krywkow, Jorg; van der Veen, A.

    2008-01-01

    The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the

  20. The wicked problem of earthquake hazard in developing countries: the example of Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steckler, M. S.; Akhter, S. H.; Stein, S.; Seeber, L.

    2017-12-01

    Many developing nations in earthquake-prone areas confront a tough problem: how much of their limited resources to use mitigating earthquake hazards? This decision is difficult because it is unclear when an infrequent major earthquake may happen, how big it could be, and how much harm it may cause. This issue faces nations with profound immediate needs and ongoing rapid urbanization. Earthquake hazard mitigation in Bangladesh is a wicked problem. It is the world's most densely populated nation, with 160 million people in an area the size of Iowa. Complex geology and sparse data make assessing a possibly-large earthquake hazard difficult. Hence it is hard to decide how much of the limited resources available should be used for earthquake hazard mitigation, given other more immediate needs. Per capita GDP is $1200, so Bangladesh is committed to economic growth and resources are needed to address many critical challenges and hazards. In their subtropical environment, rural Bangladeshis traditionally relied on modest mud or bamboo homes. Their rapidly growing, crowded capital, Dhaka, is filled with multistory concrete buildings likely to be vulnerable to earthquakes. The risk is compounded by the potential collapse of services and accessibility after a major temblor. However, extensive construction as the population shifts from rural to urban provides opportunity for earthquake-risk reduction. While this situation seems daunting, it is not hopeless. Robust risk management is practical, even for developing nations. It involves recognizing uncertainties and developing policies that should give a reasonable outcome for a range of the possible hazard and loss scenarios. Over decades, Bangladesh has achieved a thousandfold reduction in risk from tropical cyclones by building shelters and setting up a warning system. Similar efforts are underway for earthquakes. Smart investments can be very effective, even if modest. Hence, we suggest strategies consistent with high

  1. Sector model analysis of risk on cross-jurisdictional treatment of disaster waste related to the Great East Japan Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagashima, Miori; Itokawa, Etsuko; Ozuka, Yohei

    2012-01-01

    This study addressed the controversial issue of disaster waste treatment in the reconstruction efforts following the Great East Japan Earthquake. Using the Sector Model (Matsumoto 2009), we categorized a range of actions taken in relation to the cross-jurisdictional treatment into the four sectors, government, industry, academia, and private. The analysis through this Sector Model made it possible to map the entire layout of waste treatment, inclusive of less-visible industry and academia sectors. Accordingly, we have argued that differences of risk awareness are not necessarily due to sector differences but rather depend on two aspects of the disaster waste treatment; the safety levels and the nationwide treatment of waste in Japan. We further suggest that the discrepancy in the arguments on safety levels emerged as a result of scientific under-determination and cross-jurisdictional treatment from social and/or political under-determination. (author)

  2. Wicked Problems in Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S.; Steckler, M. S.; Rundle, J. B.; Dixon, T. H.

    2017-12-01

    Social scientists have defined "wicked" problems that are "messy, ill-defined, more complex than we fully grasp, and open to multiple interpretations based on one's point of view... No solution to a wicked problem is permanent or wholly satisfying, which leaves every solution open to easy polemical attack." These contrast with "tame" problems in which necessary information is available and solutions - even if difficult and expensive - are straightforward to identify and execute. Updating the U.S.'s aging infrastructure is a tame problem, because what is wrong and how to fix it are clear. In contrast, addressing climate change is a wicked problem because its effects are uncertain and the best strategies to address them are unclear. An analogous approach can be taken to natural hazard problems. In tame problems, we have a good model of the process, good information about past events, and data implying that the model should predict future events. In such cases, we can make a reasonable assessment of the hazard that can be used to develop mitigation strategies. Earthquake hazard mitigation for San Francisco is a relatively tame problem. We understand how the earthquakes result from known plate motions, have information about past earthquakes, and have geodetic data implying that future similar earthquakes will occur. As a result, it is straightforward to develop and implement mitigation strategies. However, in many cases, hazard assessment and mitigation is a wicked problem. How should we prepare for a great earthquake on plate boundaries where tectonics favor such events but we have no evidence that they have occurred and hence how large they may be or how often to expect them? How should we assess the hazard within plates, for example in the New Madrid seismic zone, where large earthquakes have occurred but we do not understand their causes and geodetic data show no strain accumulating? How can we assess the hazard and make sensible policy when the recurrence of

  3. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  4. From Colfiorito to L'Aquila Earthquake: learning from the past to communicating the risk of the present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanza, T.; Crescimbene, M.; La Longa, F.

    2012-04-01

    Italy is a country at risk of impending earthquake in the near future. Very probably, as it has already happened in the 13 years between the last two important seismic events (Colfiorito 1997- L'Aquila 2009), there won't be enough time to solve all the problems connected to seismic risk: first of all the corruption related to politics concerning buildings; the lack of the money necessary to strengthen the already existing ones, historical centres, monuments and the masterpieces of Art; the difficult relations of the Institutions with the traditional media (newspapers, radio and TV) and, at the same time, the new media (web); the difficulties for scientists to reach important results in the immediate future due to the lack of funding and, last but not least, to the conflicting relationships inside the scientific community itself. In this scenario, communication and education play a crucial role in minimizing the risk of the population. In the present work we reconsider the past with the intent of starting to trace a path for a future strategy of risk communication where everybody involved, included the population, should do his best in order to face the next emergency.

  5. Risks and mitigation options for on-site storage of wastewater from shale gas and tight oil development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuwayama, Yusuke; Roeshot, Skyler; Krupnick, Alan; Richardson, Nathan; Mares, Jan

    2017-01-01

    We provide a critical review of existing research and information regarding the sources of risk associated with on-site shale gas and tight oil wastewater storage in the United States, the gaps that exist in knowledge regarding these risks, policy and technology options for addressing the risks, and the relative merits of those options. Specifically, we (a) identify the potential risks to human and ecological health associated with on-site storage of shale gas and tight oil wastewater via a literature survey and analysis of data on wastewater spills and regulatory violations, (b) provide a detailed description of government regulations or industry actions that may mitigate these risks to human and ecological health, and (c) provide a critical review of this information to help generate progress toward concrete action to make shale gas and tight oil development more sustainable and more acceptable to a skeptical public, while keeping costs down. - Highlights: • We review current research/information on shale gas and tight oil wastewater storage. • Pit overflows, tank overfills, and liner malfunctions are common spill causes. • Tanks lead to smaller and less frequent spills than pits, but are not a magic bullet. • State regulations for on-site oil and gas wastewater storage are very heterogeneous.

  6. Power grid operation in a market environment economic efficiency and risk mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book examines both system operation and market operation perspectives, focusing on the interaction between the two. It incorporates up-to-date field experiences, presents challenges, and summarizes the latest theoretic advancements to address those challenges. The book is divided into four parts. The first part deals with the fundamentals of integrated system and market operations, including market power mitigation, market efficiency evaluation, and the implications of operation practices in energy markets. The second part discusses developing technologies to strengthen the use of the grid in energy markets. System volatility and economic impact introduced by the intermittency of wind and solar generation are also addressed. The third part focuses on stochastic applications, exploring new approaches of handling uncerta nty in Security Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) as well as the reserves needed for power system operation. The fourth part provides ongoing efforts of utilizing transmission facilities ...

  7. REIMR: A Process for Utilizing Propulsion-Oriented 'Lessons-Learned' to Mitigate Development Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Richard O.; Brown, Kendall K.

    2005-01-01

    This paper is a summary overview of a study conducted a t the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) during the initial phases of the Space Launch Initiative (SLI) program to evaluate a large number of technical problems associated with the design, development, test, evaluation and operation of several major liquid propellant rocket engine systems (i.e., SSME, Fastrac, J-2, F-1). The results of this study was the identification of the "Fundamental Root Causes" that enabled the technical problems to manifest, and practices that can be implemented to prevent them from recurring in future engine development efforts. This paper will discus the Fundamental Root Causes, cite some examples of how the technical problems arose from them, and provide a discussion of how they can be mitigated or avoided.

  8. The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario - A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Suzanne; Cox, Dale; Jones, Lucile; Bernknopf, Richard; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    resulting losses are one realistic outcome, deliberately not a worst-case scenario, rather one worth preparing for and mitigating against. Decades of improving the life-safety requirements in building codes have greatly reduced the risk of death in earthquakes, yet southern California's economic and social systems are still vulnerable to large-scale disruptions. Because of this, the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake would dramatically alter the nature of the southern California community. Fortunately, steps can be taken now that can change that outcome and repay any costs many times over. The ShakeOut Scenario is the first public product of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, created to show how hazards science can increase a community's resiliency to natural disasters through improved planning, mitigation, and response.

  9. Seismic hazard and seismic risk assessment based on the unified scaling law for earthquakes: Himalayas and adjacent regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekrasova, A. K.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Parvez, I. A.

    2015-03-01

    For the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the maps of seismic hazard and seismic risk are constructed with the use of the estimates for the parameters of the unified scaling law for earthquakes (USLE), in which the Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitude distribution of seismic events within a given area is applied in the modified version with allowance for linear dimensions of the area, namely, log N( M, L) = A + B (5 - M) + C log L, where N( M, L) is the expected annual number of the earthquakes with magnitude M in the area with linear dimension L. The spatial variations in the parameters A, B, and C for the Himalayas and adjacent regions are studied on two time intervals from 1965 to 2011 and from 1980 to 2011. The difference in A, B, and C between these two time intervals indicates that seismic activity experiences significant variations on a scale of a few decades. With a global consideration of the seismic belts of the Earth overall, the estimates of coefficient A, which determines the logarithm of the annual average frequency of the earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.0 and higher in the zone with a linear dimension of 1 degree of the Earth's meridian, differ by a factor of 30 and more and mainly fall in the interval from -1.1 to 0.5. The values of coefficient B, which describes the balance between the number of earthquakes with different magnitudes, gravitate to 0.9 and range from less than 0.6 to 1.1 and higher. The values of coefficient C, which estimates the fractal dimension of the local distribution of epicenters, vary from 0.5 to 1.4 and higher. In the Himalayas and neighboring regions, the USLE coefficients mainly fall in the intervals of -1.1 to 0.3 for A, 0.8 to 1.3 for B, and 1.0 to 1.4 for C. The calculations of the local value of the expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) from the maximal expected magnitude provided the necessary basis for mapping the seismic hazards in the studied region. When doing this, we used the local estimates of the

  10. Developing an Internet Oriented Platform for Earthquake Engineering Application and Web-based Virtual Reality Simulation System for Seismic hazards: Towards Disaster Mitigation in Metropolises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Alaghehbandian

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the state of the art on risk communication to the public, with an emphasis on simulation of seismic hazards using VRML. Rapid growth computer technologies, especially the Internet provide human beings new measures to deal with engineering and social problems which were hard to solve in traditional ways. This paper presents a prototype of an application platform based on the Internet using VR (Virtual Reality for civil engineering considering building an information system of risk communication for seismic hazards and at the moment in the case of bridge structure.

  11. The Volcanic Hazards Assessment Support System for the Online Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation of Quaternary Volcanoes in the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shinji Takarada

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic hazards assessment tools are essential for risk mitigation of volcanic activities. A number of offline volcanic hazard assessment tools have been provided, but in most cases, they require relatively complex installation procedure and usage. This situation causes limited usage of volcanic hazard assessment tools among volcanologists and volcanic hazards communities. In addition, volcanic eruption chronology and detailed database of each volcano in the world are essential key information for volcanic hazard assessment, but most of them are isolated and not connected to and with each other. The Volcanic Hazard Assessment Support System aims to implement a user-friendly, WebGIS-based, open-access online system for potential hazards assessment and risk-mitigation of Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The users can get up-to-date information such as eruption chronology and geophysical monitoring data of a specific volcano using the direct link system to major volcano databases on the system. Currently, the system provides 3 simple, powerful and notable deterministic modeling simulation codes of volcanic processes, such as Energy Cone, Titan2D and Tephra2. The system provides deterministic tools because probabilistic assessment tools are normally much more computationally demanding. By using the volcano hazard assessment system, the area that would be affected by volcanic eruptions in any location near the volcano can be estimated using numerical simulations. The system is being implemented using the ASTER Global DEM covering 2790 Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The system can be used to evaluate volcanic hazards and move this toward risk-potential by overlaying the estimated distribution of volcanic gravity flows or tephra falls on major roads, houses and evacuation areas using the GIS-enabled systems. The system is developed for all users in the world who need volcanic hazards assessment tools.

  12. Crime, violence, and behavioral health: collaborative community strategies for risk mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinals, Debra A

    2015-06-01

    Criminal conduct is not always violent, and violence does not always lead to criminal charges. Moreover, crime and violence have multifaceted etiologies. Most violence in society is not attributable to mental illness. Where there is a small relationship between violence and mental illness, the risk of violence increases for individuals with substance use histories. Underlying trauma can also play a role. Antisocial attitudes, behaviors, and peer groups further increase the risk that individuals, including those with mental illness, will find themselves at risk of criminal recidivism. Criminal histories among public mental health populations, and mental health and substance use disorders among criminal populations are each higher than general population comparisons. Care within behavioral health settings should therefore target decreased criminal recidivism and decreased violence as part of recovery for those individuals at risk, using trauma-informed approaches and peer supports. Interventions that show promise bring criminal justice and behavioral health systems together, and include police-based diversion, specialty courts, court-based alternatives to incarceration, and coordinated re-entry programs. This article reviews these options along with specific risk management strategies, such as using risk, needs, and responsivity factors as a means of improving overall outcomes for persons with mental illness, while minimizing their risk of further criminalization and victimization.

  13. Non-Invasive Brain Stimulation in Children With Unilateral Cerebral Palsy: A Protocol and Risk Mitigation Guide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernadette T. Gillick

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Non-invasive brain stimulation has been increasingly investigated, mainly in adults, with the aims of influencing motor recovery after stroke. However, a consensus on safety and optimal study design has not been established in pediatrics. The low incidence of reported major adverse events in adults with and without clinical conditions has expedited the exploration of NIBS in children with paralleled purposes to influence motor skill development after neurological injury. Considering developmental variability in children, with or without a neurologic diagnosis, adult dosing and protocols may not be appropriate. The purpose of this paper is to present recommendations and tools for the prevention and mitigation of adverse events (AEs during NIBS in children with unilateral cerebral palsy (UCP. Our recommendations provide a framework for pediatric NIBS study design. The key components of this report on NIBS AEs are (a a summary of related literature to provide the background evidence and (b tools for anticipating and managing AEs from four international pediatric laboratories. These recommendations provide a preliminary guide for the assessment of safety and risk mitigation of NIBS in children with UCP. Consistent reporting of safety, feasibility, and tolerability will refine NIBS practice guidelines contributing to future clinical translations of NIBS.

  14. Risk mitigation process for utilization of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) parts in CCD camera for military applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Anees; Batcheldor, Scott; Cannon, Steven C.; Roberts, Thomas E.

    2002-09-01

    This paper presents the lessons learned during the design and development of a high performance cooled CCD camera for military applications utilizing common commercial off the shelf (COTS) parts. Our experience showed that concurrent evaluation and testing of high risk COTS must be performed to assess their performance over the required temperature range and other special product requirements such as fuel vapor compatibility, EMI and shock susceptibility, etc. Technical, cost and schedule risks for COTS parts must also be carefully evaluated. The customer must be involved in the selection and evaluation of such parts so that the performance limitations of the selected parts are clearly understood. It is equally important to check with vendors on the availability and obsolescence of the COTS parts being considered since the electronic components are often replaced by newer, better and cheaper models in a couple of years. In summary, this paper addresses the major benefits and risks associated with using commercial and industrial parts in military products, and suggests a risk mitigation approach to ensure a smooth development phase, and predictable performance from the end product.

  15. Fleeing to Fault Zones: Incorporating Syrian Refugees into Earthquake Risk Analysis along the East Anatolian and Dead Sea Rift Fault Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, B.; Paradise, T. R.

    2016-12-01

    The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian Fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into cities, towns, and villages—placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong shaking. Yet, displaced populations are not traditionally captured in data sources used in earthquake risk analysis or loss estimations. Accordingly, we present a district-level analysis assessing the spatial overlap of earthquake hazards and refugee locations in southeastern Turkey to determine how migration patterns are altering seismic risk in the region. Using migration estimates from the U.S. Humanitarian Information Unit, we create three district-level population scenarios that combine official population statistics, refugee camp populations, and low, median, and high bounds for integrated refugee populations. We perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis alongside these population scenarios to map spatial variations in seismic risk between 2011 and late 2015. Our results show a significant relative southward increase of seismic risk for this period due to refugee migration. Additionally, we calculate earthquake fatalities for simulated earthquakes using a semi-empirical loss estimation technique to determine degree of under-estimation resulting from forgoing migration data in loss modeling. We find that including refugee populations increased casualties by 11-12% using median population estimates, and upwards of 20% using high population estimates. These results communicate the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context which unites physical, political, cultural, and socio-economic landscapes. Keywords: Earthquakes, Hazards, Loss-Estimation, Syrian Crisis, Migration

  16. Infections in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia: Mitigating risk in the era of targeted therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Benjamin W; Tam, Constantine S; Handunnetti, Sasanka; Worth, Leon J; Slavin, Monica A

    2018-04-23

    Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) is the most common leukaemia with infections a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Recently there has been a paradigm shift from the use of chemo-immunotherapies to agents targeting specific B-lymphocyte pathways. These agents include ibrutinib, idelalisib and venetoclax. In this review, the risks and timing of infections associated with these agents are described, taking into account disease and treatment status. Treatment with ibrutinib as monotherapy or in combination with chemo-immunotherapies is not associated with additional risk for infection. In contrast, the use of idelalisib is associated with a 2-fold risk for severe infection and opportunistic infections. Venetoclax does not appear to be associated with additional infection risk. The evolving spectrum of pathogens responsible infections in CLL patients, especially those with relapsed and refractory disease are described, and prevention strategies (prophylaxis, monitoring and vaccination) are proposed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Anticoagulant Prairie Dog Bait Risk Mitigation Measures to Protect Endangered Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    This Web page contains information on how certified pesticide applicators can use anticoagulant prairie dog bait products such as Rozol and Kaput-D while minimizing exposure risks to listed and non-target species.

  18. Low Vertical Clearance Truss Bridges : Risk Assessment and Retrofit Mitigation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-10

    The Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) has over 60 steel truss bridges in its inventory with vertical clearances less than the minimum 16-6 required for new bridges. This study evaluates the risks of oversized vehicle impacts...

  19. Deliberating A Contract Type Based Risk Mitigation Strategy For South African Defense Acquisitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    cash flow may lead to cost overruns and schedule slippage. Table 1 shows the description, schedule and cost performance status for two SA DOD...possibility of applying a contract-type based strategy to manage acquisition program costs and schedule risks for the South African (SA) Department of...deviations between technical, cost and schedule performance. 14. SUBJECT TERMS acquisition process, defense acquisition, contract-type, risk

  20. A Complex Systems Perspective of Risk Mitigation and Modeling in Development and Acquisition Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    current methodologies used in risk assessment are heavily subjective and inaccurate in various life cycle phases of complex engineered systems. The...complexity content of the system. Many of the system’s life cycle risks are currently assessed subjectively by imprecise methodologies such as color...evaluated for multiple entities such as galaxies, stars, planets , plants, animals, societies, and technological systems, and also has been mapped

  1. Strategic crisis and risk communication during a prolonged natural hazard event: lessons learned from the Canterbury earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A. M.; Potter, S.; Becker, J.; Doyle, E. E.; Jones, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    While communication products are developed for monitoring and forecasting hazard events, less thought may have been given to crisis and risk communication plans. During larger (and rarer) events responsible science agencies may find themselves facing new and intensified demands for information and unprepared for effectively resourcing communications. In a study of the communication of aftershock information during the 2010-12 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (New Zealand), issues are identified and implications for communication strategy noted. Communication issues during the responses included reliability and timeliness of communication channels for immediate and short decision time frames; access to scientists by those who needed information; unfamiliar emergency management frameworks; information needs of multiple audiences, audience readiness to use the information; and how best to convey empathy during traumatic events and refer to other information sources about what to do and how to cope. Other science communication challenges included meeting an increased demand for earthquake education, getting attention on aftershock forecasts; responding to rumor management; supporting uptake of information by critical infrastructure and government and for the application of scientific information in complex societal decisions; dealing with repetitive information requests; addressing diverse needs of multiple audiences for scientific information; and coordinating communications within and outside the science domain. For a science agency, a communication strategy would consider training scientists in communication, establishing relationships with university scientists and other disaster communication roles, coordinating messages, prioritizing audiences, deliberating forecasts with community leaders, identifying user needs and familiarizing them with the products ahead of time, and practicing the delivery and use of information via scenario planning and exercises.

  2. GEOS seismograms recorded for aftershocks of the earthquakes of December 7, 1988, near Spitak, Armenia SSR, during the time period 3 January 1989 through 2 February 1988 (UTC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcherdt, R.D.; Glassmoyer, Gary; Cranswick, Edward

    1989-01-01

    The earthquakes of December 7, 1988, near Spitak, Armenia SSR, serve as another grim reminder of the serious hazard that earthquakes pose throughout the world. We extend our heartfelt sympathies to the families of the earthquake victims and intend that our cooperative scientific endeavours will help reduce losses in future earthquakes. Only through a better understanding of earthquake hazards can earthquake losses be reduced for all peoples in seismically active regions of the world.The tragic consequences of these earthquakes remind scientists and public officials alike of their urgent responsibilities to understand and mitigate the effects of earthquakes. On behalf of the U.S. Geological Survey, I would like to express appreciation to our Soviet colleagues for their kind invitation to participate in joint scientific and engineering studies. Without their cooperation and generous assistance, the conduct of these studies would not have been possible.This report provides seismologic and geologic data collected during the time period December 21, 1988, through February 2, 1989. These data are presented in their entirety to expedite analysis of the data set for inferences regarding hazard mitigation actions, applicable not only in Armenia but other regions of the world exposed to high seismic risk

  3. Risk Factors of Post-traumatic Stress and Depressive Disorders in Longmenshan Adolescents After the 2013 Lushan Earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jiuping; Wang, Yan; Tang, Wanjie

    2018-03-06

    This study examined the severity of post-traumatic stress and depressive disorders in Longmenshan adolescents after the 2013 Lushan earthquake, as well as relationships among earthquake-related exposure, post-earthquake negative factors, previous exposure to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and level of earthquake impact (city). A cross-sectional survey was conducted among adolescents in Lushan (n = 1416), Baoxing (n = 1102) and Tianquan (n = 1265) at 3 years after the Lushan earthquake. Respondents were evaluated using the Earthquake Experience Scale, the Adolescent Self-rating Life Events Checklist (ASLEC), the Children's Revised Impact of Event Scale (CRIES-13), and the Depression Self-Rating Scale (KADS-6). High levels of post-traumatic stress and depression symptoms were found among adolescents in the most heavily affected cities, and these symptoms were more severe in respondents exposed to the 2008 earthquake. PTSD correlated most strongly with earthquake exposure, whereas depression correlated most strongly with psychosocial stressors following the event.

  4. Debris flow risk mitigation by the means of rigid and flexible barriers – experimental tests and impact analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Canelli

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The impact of a debris flow on a structure can have disastrous effects because of the enormous destructive potential of this type of phenomenon. Although the introduction of risk mitigation structures such as the Sabo Dam, the filter dam and more recently flexible barriers is usual, there are very few methods that are universally recognized for the safe design of such structures. This study presents the results of experimental tests, conducted with the use of a specifically created flume, in order to obtain detailed knowledge of the mechanical aspects, and to analyze the dynamics of the impact of a debris flow on different types of structures. The analyses of the tests, together with the calculation of the thrust caused by the flow, have made it possible to analyze the dynamics of the impact, which has shown differing effects, on the basis of the type of barrier that has been installed.

  5. Risk and mitigation in the privately financed hydropower project Birecik, Turkey; Privat finanzierte Wasserkraft, Birecik, Tuerkei - Risiken und Risikoverteilung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koselleck, F.; Ishay, D. [PH Ventures GmbH, Neu-Isenburg (Germany)

    2003-07-01

    The 627 MW Hydroelectric Power Plant Birecik, Turkey, is the largest privately financed hydropower project realized wordwide under a BOT (Build Operate Transfer) scheme. The total investment volume adds up to almost 1 Bll Euro. Ther financial structure of the project mostly relies on export credits, which have been arranged under an international consortium of 50 banks. A complex contractual structure between the government, the investors and the contractors succeeded in establishing a fair risk mitigation mechanism, which was a central factor for the overall success of the project. [German] Das 672 MW Wasserkraftwerk Birecik, Tuerkei, ist mit einem Investitionsvolumen von rund Euro 1 Mrd. das bisher weltweit groesste Wasserkraftprojekt, das nach dem BOT-Modell realisiert wurde. Die auf Exportkredite basierende Finanzierung wurde ueber ein internationales Konsortium von 50 Banken dargestellt. Eine komplexe Vertragsstruktur zwischen dem Staat, den Investoren und den Auftragsnehmern fuehrte zu einem ausgeglichenen Risikoverteilungsmechanismus, der ausschlaggebend fuer den Erfolg des Projektes war. (orig.)

  6. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Kunugita, Naoki; Svendsen, Erik Robert

    2015-01-01

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. (author)

  7. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  8. Risk Mitigation in Preventing Adventitious Agent Contamination of Mammalian Cell Cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiratori, Masaru; Kiss, Robert

    2017-11-14

    Industrial-scale mammalian cell culture processes have been contaminated by viruses during the culturing phase. Although the historical frequency of such events has been quite low, the impact of contamination can be significant for the manufacturing company and for the supply of the product to patients. This chapter discusses sources of adventitious agent contamination risk in a cell culture process, provides a semiquantitative assessment of such risks, and describes potential process barriers that can be used to reduce contamination risk. High-temperature, short-time (HTST) heat treatment is recommended as the process barrier of choice, when compatible with the process. A case study assessing the compatibility of HTST heat treatment with a cell culture medium is presented, and lessons learned are shared from our experiences over many years of developing and implementing virus barriers in mammalian cell culture processes. Graphical Abstract.

  9. Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Bruce P. Hallbert

    2006-08-01

    The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on human performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.

  10. Mitigating Sports Injury Risks Using Internet of Things and Analytics Approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkerson, Gary B; Gupta, Ashish; Colston, Marisa A

    2018-03-12

    Sport injuries restrict participation, impose a substantial economic burden, and can have persisting adverse effects on health-related quality of life. The effective use of Internet of Things (IoT), when combined with analytics approaches, can improve player safety through identification of injury risk factors that can be addressed by targeted risk reduction training activities. Use of IoT devices can facilitate highly efficient quantification of relevant functional capabilities prior to sport participation, which could substantially advance the prevailing sport injury management paradigm. This study introduces a framework for using sensor-derived IoT data to supplement other data for objective estimation of each individual college football player's level of injury risk, which is an approach to injury prevention that has not been previously reported. A cohort of 45 NCAA Division I-FCS college players provided data in the form of self-ratings of persisting effects of previous injuries and single-leg postural stability test. Instantaneous change in body mass acceleration (jerk) during the test was quantified by a smartphone accelerometer, with data wirelessly transmitted to a secure cloud server. Injuries sustained from the beginning of practice sessions until the end of the 13-game season were documented, along with the number of games played by each athlete over the course of a 13-game season. Results demonstrate a strong prediction model. Our approach may have strong relevance to the estimation of injury risk for other physically demanding activities. Clearly, there is great potential for improvement of injury prevention initiatives through identification of individual athletes who possess elevated injury risk and targeted interventions. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Perceived risks, emotions, and policy preferences : A longitudinal survey among the local population on gas quakes in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perlaviciute, Goda; Steg, Linda; Hoekstra, Elisabeth J.; Vrieling, Leonie

    Energy production can pose risks, such as nuclear accidents, oil spills, and earthquakes caused by gas production. Besides experts’ evaluations of risks, appropriate risk assessment and management require knowledge about how people experience these risks and which mitigation measures they prefer.

  12. Risk evaluation and mitigation in domestic photovoltaic projects: According to the UK climate polcy

    OpenAIRE

    Atigeh Chian, Milan

    2013-01-01

    2013 dissertation for MSc in Project Management. Selected by academic staff as a good example of a masters level dissertation. \\ud \\ud In the wake of financial crisis, many investors are faced with the uncertainty\\ud in investment decision as a result of the volatility in the market. In an\\ud attempt to reduce this risk of uncertainties, investors have therefore\\ud provided different method of risk management.\\ud Past studies has shown the importance of fund managers in the management\\ud of f...

  13. Mitigating the Health Risks of Stone Quarrying and Crushing in India ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Safety and health in the stone crushing industry : a practical manual for preventing accidents preserving health and keeping a company profitable. Études. Abstract for oral presentation : addressing health risk of communities residing close to stone quarrying and crushing unit using ecohealth framework in Central India.

  14. RISK MITIGATION IN THE BANKING SYSTEM IN THE CONTEXT OF INTEGRATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura – Maria POPESCU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The article aims to highlight the measures adopted in the financial-banking system in the context of the European integration, according to risk analysis perspectives. The first part provides details on the vulnerability sources in terms of banking risks and their approach from various perspectives. Subsequently, based on the identified risks, a series of measures are proposed to limit them within the banking system. In terms of the work hypotheses, they are confirmed, thus increasing the harmonization level of theories throughout the European Union. Research was based on methods such as analysis, synthesis and induction, used to select the opinion of specialists in the field on the studied matter, and deduction, through the cross-section method, thus following the evolution and measures adopted in time. Following the analysis, a need was noticed for the implementation of an efficient banking risk management system, together with drafting additional regulations, so that the banking system is better prepared to handle new challenges generated by the crisis. The term afferent to the accession and integration in the European Union implied a stage requiring a radical change of the Romanian banking system, considering issues such as Romania’s economic development, leading to an increase of the banking mediation process.

  15. A Human Factor Analysis to Mitigate Fall Risk Factors in an Aerospace Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, Joylene H.

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the study done to quanitfy the risks from falls from three locations (i.e., Shuttle Landing Facility Launch Complex Payloads and Vehicle Assembly Building) at the Kennedy Space Center. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is reviewed and the mathematical model developed is detailed.

  16. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

  17. Risk Mitigation and Leadership in Tactical U.S. Army Infantry Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    required for this war must simulate the expected conditions, those of high-intensity conflict, as closely as possible. As U.S. strategic leaders look...doctrine, cognitive and perceptual biases, and historical case studies, this thesis suggests that U.S. Army risk management practices neither hinder nor

  18. Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zagonjolli, M.

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events,

  19. A broad scale analysis of tree risk, mitigation and potential habitat for cavity-nesting birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian Kane; Paige S. Warren; Susannah B. Lerman

    2015-01-01

    Trees in towns and cities provide habitat for wildlife. In particular, cavity-nesting birds nest in the deadand decayed stems and branches of these trees. The same dead and decayed stems and branches alsohave a greater likelihood of failure, which, in some circumstances, increases risk. We examined 1760trees in Baltimore, MD, USA and western MA, USA, assessing tree...

  20. 78 FR 30313 - Standardizing and Evaluating Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies; Notice of Public Meeting...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-22

    ... them apply what they have learned; and how REMS training could be incorporated into continuing medical... patient information needs and learning styles? 4. In many REMS, patients receive counseling that may... identify priority projects in four areas (pharmacy systems, prescriber education, providing benefit/risk...

  1. Mitigating the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency: the case of Jordan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schyns, Joseph Franciscus; Hamaideh, A.; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Mekonnen, Mesfin; Schyns, M.

    2015-01-01

    Jordan faces great internal water scarcity and pollution, conflict over trans-boundary waters, and strong dependency on external water resources through trade. This paper analyzes these issues and subsequently reviews options to reduce the risk of extreme water scarcity and dependency. Based on

  2. The role of food chain traceability in food risk mitigation: expert and consumer outlook

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frewer, L.J.; Kher, S.V.

    2009-01-01

    The European Union has enforced mandatory traceability for food business operators for effective monitoring and management of risks associated with food and feed chains. The implementation of such a system needs to take account of stakeholder priorities and expectations. Expert stakeholders (such as

  3. Hazus® estimated annualized earthquake losses for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Bausch, Doug; Rozelle, Jesse; Holub, John; McGowan, Sean

    2017-01-01

    Large earthquakes can cause social and economic disruption that can be unprecedented to any given community, and the full recovery from these impacts may or may not always be achievable. In the United States (U.S.), the 1994 M6.7 Northridge earthquake in California remains the third costliest disaster in U.S. history; and it was one of the most expensive disasters for the federal government. Internationally, earthquakes in the last decade alone have claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused hundreds of billions of dollars of economic impact throughout the globe (~90 billion U.S. dollars (USD) from 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan China, ~20 billion USD from 2010 M8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, ~220 billion USD from 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Japan earthquake, ~25 billion USD from 2011 M6.3 Christchurch New Zealand, and ~22 billion USD from 2016 M7.0 Kumamoto Japan). Recent earthquakes show a pattern of steadily increasing damages and losses that are primarily due to three key factors: (1) significant growth in earthquake-prone urban areas, (2) vulnerability of the older building stock, including poorly engineered non-ductile concrete buildings, and (3) an increased interdependency in terms of supply and demand for the businesses that operate among different parts of the world. In the United States, earthquake risk continues to grow with increased exposure of population and development even though the earthquake hazard has remained relatively stable except for the regions of induced seismic activity. Understanding the seismic hazard requires studying earthquake characteristics and locales in which they occur, while understanding the risk requires an assessment of the potential damage from earthquake shaking to the built environment and to the welfare of people—especially in high-risk areas. Estimating the varying degree of earthquake risk throughout the United States is critical for informed decision-making on mitigation policies, priorities, strategies, and funding levels in the

  4. Addressing Beacon re-identification attacks: quantification and mitigation of privacy risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raisaro, Jean Louis; Tramèr, Florian; Ji, Zhanglong; Bu, Diyue; Zhao, Yongan; Carey, Knox; Lloyd, David; Sofia, Heidi; Baker, Dixie; Flicek, Paul; Shringarpure, Suyash; Bustamante, Carlos; Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Ohno-Machado, Lucila; Tang, Haixu; Wang, XiaoFeng; Hubaux, Jean-Pierre

    2017-07-01

    The Global Alliance for Genomics and Health (GA4GH) created the Beacon Project as a means of testing the willingness of data holders to share genetic data in the simplest technical context-a query for the presence of a specified nucleotide at a given position within a chromosome. Each participating site (or "beacon") is responsible for assuring that genomic data are exposed through the Beacon service only with the permission of the individual to whom the data pertains and in accordance with the GA4GH policy and standards.While recognizing the inference risks associated with large-scale data aggregation, and the fact that some beacons contain sensitive phenotypic associations that increase privacy risk, the GA4GH adjudged the risk of re-identification based on the binary yes/no allele-presence query responses as acceptable. However, recent work demonstrated that, given a beacon with specific characteristics (including relatively small sample size and an adversary who possesses an individual's whole genome sequence), the individual's membership in a beacon can be inferred through repeated queries for variants present in the individual's genome.In this paper, we propose three practical strategies for reducing re-identification risks in beacons. The first two strategies manipulate the beacon such that the presence of rare alleles is obscured; the third strategy budgets the number of accesses per user for each individual genome. Using a beacon containing data from the 1000 Genomes Project, we demonstrate that the proposed strategies can effectively reduce re-identification risk in beacon-like datasets. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

  5. Environmental benefits and risks of zero-valent iron nanoparticles (nZVI): risk mitigation or trade-off?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Fjordbøge, Annika Sidelmann; Hartmann, Nanna Isabella Bloch

    2009-01-01

    nanoparticles, in part due to extensive and fundamental uncertainties. These data may provide a starting point to more thoroughly investigate the potential risks of nZVI and ultimately help scientists, engineers, and decision makers make better informed decisions regarding the use of nZVI for environmental...... dimensions. While the use and further development of nZVI is understandably heralded as an environmentally-beneficial technology, the potentials risks of introducing these nanoparticles into the environment also needs to be considered. To date most research has focused on the potential benefits of n...... of substantial concentrations. In this study, we provide a brief synopsis of the expected environmental benefits and potential risks of nZVI, particularly focusing on its environmental fate and behavior and potential role as contaminant carrier. These are some areas of primary concern for risk assessors...

  6. Middle Man Concept for In-Orbit Collision Risks Mitigation, CAESAR and CARA Examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moury, Monique; Newman, Lauri K.; Laporte, Francois

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the conjunction analysis which has to be performed using data provided by JSpOC. This description not only demonstrates that Collision Avoidance is a 2- step process (close approach detection followed by risk evaluation for collision avoidance decision) but also leads to the conclusion that there is a need for a Middle Man role. After describing the Middle Man concept, this paper introduces two examples with their similarities and particularities: the American civil space effort delivered by the NASA CARA team (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) and the French response CAESAR (Conjunction Assessment and Evaluation Service: Alerts and Recommendations). For both, statistics are presented and feedbacks discussed. All together, around 80 satellites are served by CARA and/or CAESAR. Both processes regularly evolve in order either to follow JSpOC upgrades or to improve analysis according to experience acquired during the past years.

  7. Risk informed analysis of training effectiveness for mitigating accidents of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chang Ju

    2012-01-01

    A critical area for deriving expected benefits from training and exercise is the measurement of 'training effectiveness'-how well the training inputs are serving the intended purpose. This aspect is often neglected by nuclear organizations, saying that measurement is difficult. However, I believe that a technique in nuclear society has developed sufficiently to measure most important aspects of training by way of human reliability analysis (HRA) used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The consequences of errors caused by lack of training can be evaluated in terms of the overall vulnerability to human error of the facility under consideration. This study presents current situation and considerations for measures of robustness on nuclear accidents and HRA technique on the training effectiveness. In view of risk informed approach with this consideration and an example case, I'd like to identify appropriate relationship between risk measures of robustness and training effectiveness

  8. Does mitigation save? Reviewing cost-benefit analyses of disaster risk reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Shreve, Cheney M.; Kelman, Ilan

    2014-01-01

    The benefit-cost-ratio (BCR), used in cost-benefit analysis (CBA), is an indicator that attempts to summarize the overall value for money of a project. Disaster costs continue to rise and the demand has increased to demonstrate the economic benefit of disaster risk reduction (DRR) to policy makers. This study compiles and compares original CBA case studies reporting DRR BCRs, without restrictions as to hazard type, location, scale, or other parameters. Many results were identified supporting ...

  9. Metals Additive Manufacturing. Great Promise in Mitigating Shortages but Some Risks Remain

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-01

    risks for obsolescence man- agement. As we leverage the growth of this new technol- 39 Defense AT&L: November-December 2016 ogy, it will be...such as re- placing a few obsolescent parts or castings and building prototypes. In addition, AM is used to create special tooling in lieu of...improvements in cost and schedule . Similar successes were obtained by the America Makes- funded project led by the Youngstown Business Incubator (YBI) that

  10. Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

  11. The role of supply chain collaboration in supply chain risk mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Jie

    2017-01-01

    In the last two decades, supply chain operations have changed drastically. Globalization of the market, shortened product life cycle, global outsourcing and offshoring, and increasing complexity of the supply base has resulted in modern supply chains becoming more vulnerable than ever. There are also more frequent natural or man-made disasters which disrupt the supply chain operations. All these have led to higher exposure of risks of supply chains and the failure to manage the...

  12. Physiological Implications, Performance Assessment and Risk Mitigation Strategies of Women in Combat-Centric Occupations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greeves, Julie P

    2015-11-01

    Women have historically featured in military conflicts, but were not formally integrated into the military until the 20th century; occupations were mainly restricted to clerical or support roles. An increasing number of occupations have been opened to women and the higher physical demands of combat roles present new challenges. Inherent biological differences between sexes require women to work harder when undertaking the same tasks as men. This is reflected, in part, by the greater risk of musculoskeletal injuries of women observed notably during integrated military training. Gender "neutral" occupational standards, based on the physical requirements of the role, will ensure that women are suitably selected to cope with the demands of military tasks with a minimal risk of injury and to operational effectiveness. Initiatives such as reduced running mileage and single-sex training have contributed to a reduction in lower-limb musculoskeletal injuries, but the risk of injury remains higher in women. Nevertheless, women experience substantial gains in aerobic power and strength with appropriate and targeted training, narrowing the gap in physical performance between the sexes. Evidence-based occupational standards and optimal training programs provide short-term solutions for integrating women in support combat, and indeed direct combat roles.

  13. Development of a Meteorological Risk Map for Disaster Mitigation and Management in the Chishan Basin, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tai-Li Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study involved developing a natural disaster risk assessment framework based on the consideration of three phases: a pre-disaster phase, disaster impact phase, and post-disaster recovery phase. The exposure of natural disasters exhibits unique characteristics. The interactions of numerous factors should be considered in risk assessment as well as in monitoring environment to provide natural disaster warnings. In each phase, specific factors indicate the relative status in the area subjected to risk assessment. Three types of natural disaster were assessed, namely debris flows, floods, and droughts. The Chishan basin in Taiwan was used as a case study and the adequacy of the relocation of Xiaolin village was evaluated. Incorporating resilience into the assessment revealed that the higher the exposure is, the higher the resilience becomes. This is because highly populated areas are typically allocated enough resources to respond to disasters. In addition, highly populated areas typically exhibit high resilience. The application of this analysis in the policy of relocation of damaged village after disaster provides valuable information for decision makers to achieve the sustainability of land use planning.

  14. Fragility analysis of flood protection structures in earthquake and flood prone areas around Cologne, Germany for multi-hazard risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyagunov, Sergey; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Munoz Jimenez, Cristina; Parolai, Stefano; Fleming, Kevin; Merz, Bruno; Zschau, Jochen

    2013-04-01

    The work presents a methodology for fragility analyses of fluvial earthen dikes in earthquake and flood prone areas. Fragility estimates are being integrated into the multi-hazard (earthquake-flood) risk analysis being undertaken within the framework of the EU FP7 project MATRIX (New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment Methods for Europe) for the city of Cologne, Germany. Scenarios of probable cascading events due to the earthquake-triggered failure of flood protection dikes and the subsequent inundation of surroundings are analyzed for the area between the gauges Andernach and Düsseldorf along the Rhine River. Along this river stretch, urban areas are partly protected by earthen dikes, which may be prone to failure during exceptional floods and/or earthquakes. The seismic fragility of the dikes is considered in terms of liquefaction potential (factor of safety), estimated by the use of the simplified procedure of Seed and Idriss. It is assumed that initiation of liquefaction at any point throughout the earthen dikes' body corresponds to the failure of the dike and, therefore, this should be taken into account for the flood risk calculations. The estimated damage potential of such structures is presented as a two-dimensional surface (as a function of seismic hazard and water level). Uncertainties in geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters are considered within the framework of Monte Carlo simulations. Taking into consideration the spatial configuration of the existing flood protection system within the area under consideration, seismic hazard curves (in terms of PGA) are calculated for sites along the river segment of interest at intervals of 1 km. The obtained estimates are used to calculate the flood risk when considering the temporal coincidence of seismic and flood events. Changes in flood risk for the considered hazard cascade scenarios are quantified and compared to the single-hazard scenarios.

  15. The changing health priorities of earthquake response and implications for preparedness: a scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, C; Hall, M; Lee, A C K

    2017-09-01

    Earthquakes have substantial impacts on mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The academic evidence base to support Disaster Risk Reduction activities in LMIC settings is, however, limited. We sought to address this gap by identifying the health and healthcare impacts of earthquakes in LMICs and to identify the implications of these findings for future earthquake preparedness. Scoping review. A scoping review was undertaken with systematic searches of indexed databases to identify relevant literature. Key study details, findings, recommendations or lessons learnt were extracted and analysed across individual earthquake events. Findings were categorised by time frame relative to earthquakes and linked to the disaster preparedness cycle, enabling a profile of health and healthcare impacts and implications for future preparedness to be established. Health services need to prepare for changing health priorities with a shift from initial treatment of earthquake-related injuries to more general health needs occurring within the first few weeks. Preparedness is required to address mental health and rehabilitation needs in the medium to longer term. Inequalities of the impact of earthquakes on health were noted in particular for women, children, the elderly, disabled and rural communities. The need to maintain access to essential services such as reproductive health and preventative health services were identified. Key preparedness actions include identification of appropriate leaders, planning and training of staff. Testing of plans was advocated within the literature with evidence that this is possible in LMIC settings. Whilst there are a range of health and healthcare impacts of earthquakes, common themes emerged in different settings and from different earthquake events. Preparedness of healthcare systems is essential and possible, in order to mitigate the adverse health impacts of earthquakes in LMIC settings. Preparedness is needed at the community

  16. Pesticide mixtures in the Swedish streams: Environmental risks, contributions of individual compounds and consequences of single-substance oriented risk mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustavsson, Mikael; Kreuger, Jenny; Bundschuh, Mirco; Backhaus, Thomas

    2017-11-15

    This paper presents the ecotoxicological assessment and environmental risk evaluation of complex pesticide mixtures occurring in freshwater ecosystems in southern Sweden. The evaluation is based on exposure data collected between 2002 and 2013 by the Swedish pesticide monitoring program and includes 1308 individual samples, detecting mixtures of up to 53 pesticides (modal=8). Pesticide mixture risks were evaluated using three different scenarios for non-detects (best-case, worst-case and using the Kaplan-Meier method). The risk of each scenario was analyzed using Swedish Water Quality Objectives (WQO) and trophic-level specific environmental thresholds. Using the Kaplan-Meier method the environmental risk of 73% of the samples exceeded acceptable levels, based on an assessment using Concentration-Addition and WQOs for the individual pesticides. Algae were the most sensitive organism group. However, analytical detection limits, especially for insecticides, were insufficient to analyze concentrations at or near their WQO's. Thus, the risk of the analyzed pesticide mixtures to crustaceans and fish is systematically underestimated. Treating non-detects as being present at their individual limit of detection increased the estimated risk by a factor 100 or more, compared to the best-case or the Kaplan-Meier scenario. Pesticide mixture risks are often driven by only 1-3 compounds. However, the risk-drivers (i.e., individual pesticides explaining the largest share of potential effects) differ substantially between sites and samples, and 83 of the 141 monitored pesticides need to be included in the assessment to account for 95% of the risk at all sites and years. Single-substance oriented risk mitigation measures that would ensure that each individual pesticide is present at a maximum of 95% of its individual WQO, would also reduce the mixture risk, but only from a median risk quotient of 2.1 to a median risk quotient of 1.8. Also, acceptable total risk levels would still

  17. GEOS seismograms for aftershocks of the earthquakes of December 7, 1988, near Spitak, Armenia SSR, during the time period 30 December 1988 14:00 through 2 January 1989 (UTC): Chapter D in Results and data from seismologic and geologic studies following earthquakes of December 7, 1988, near Spitak, Armenia SSR (Open-File Report 89-163)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcherdt, R.D.; Glassmoyer, Gary; Cranswick, Edward

    1989-01-01

    The earthquakes of December 7, 1988, near Spitak, Armenia SSR, serve as another grim reminder of the serious hazard that earthquakes pose throughout the world. We extend our heartfelt sympathies to the families of the earthquake victims and intend that our cooperative scientific endeavours will help reduce losses in future earthquakes. Only through a better understanding of earthquake hazards can earthquake losses be reduced for all peoples in seismically active regions of the world.The tragic consequences of these earthquakes remind scientists and public officials alike of their urgent responsibilities to understand and mitigate the effects of earthquakes. On behalf of the U.S. Geological Survey, I would like to express appreciation to our Soviet colleagues for their kind invitation to participate in joint scientific and engineering studies. Without their cooperation and generous assistance, the conduct of these studies would not have been possible.This report provides seismologic and geologic data collected during the time period December 21, 1988, through February 2, 1989. These data are presented in their entirety to expedite analysis of the data set for inferences regarding hazard mitigation actions, applicable not only in Armenia but other regions of the world exposed to high seismic risk

  18. The Effect of Risk Reduction Intervention on Earthquake Disaster Preparedness of the Elderly People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kian Nourozi

    2016-01-01

    Conclusion: Preparedness programs for disaster risk reduction has a positive effect on the elders’ preparedness. Thus, similar multimodal preparedness programs should be used more frequently for this vulnerable community citizens.

  19. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

  20. Desiccation as a mitigation tool to manage biofouling risks: trials on temperate taxa to elucidate factors influencing mortality rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Grant A; Prince, Madeleine; Cahill, Patrick L; Fletcher, Lauren M; Atalah, Javier

    2016-01-01

    The desiccation tolerance of biofouling taxa (adults and early life-stages) was determined under both controlled and 'realistic' field conditions. Adults of the ascidian Ciona spp. died within 24 h. Mortality in the adult blue mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis occurred within 11 d under controlled conditions, compared with 7 d when held outside. The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas was the most desiccation-tolerant taxon tested (up to 34 d under controlled conditions). Biofouling orientated to direct sunlight showed faster mortality rates for all the taxa tested. Mortality in Mytilus juveniles took up to 24 h, compared with 8 h for Ciona, with greater survival at the higher temperature (18.5°C) and humidity (~95% RH) treatment combination. This study demonstrated that desiccation can be an effective mitigation method for a broad range of fouling taxa, especially their early life-stages. Further work is necessary to assess risks from other high-risk species such as algae and cyst forming species.

  1. Choosing organic pesticides over synthetic pesticides may not effectively mitigate environmental risk in soybeans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine A Bahlai

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Selection of pesticides with small ecological footprints is a key factor in developing sustainable agricultural systems. Policy guiding the selection of pesticides often emphasizes natural products and organic-certified pesticides to increase sustainability, because of the prevailing public opinion that natural products are uniformly safer, and thus more environmentally friendly, than synthetic chemicals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We report the results of a study examining the environmental impact of several new synthetic and certified organic insecticides under consideration as reduced-risk insecticides for soybean aphid (Aphis glycines control, using established and novel methodologies to directly quantify pesticide impact in terms of biocontrol services. We found that in addition to reduced efficacy against aphids compared to novel synthetic insecticides, organic approved insecticides had a similar or even greater negative impact on several natural enemy species in lab studies, were more detrimental to biological control organisms in field experiments, and had higher Environmental Impact Quotients at field use rates. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These data bring into caution the widely held assumption that organic pesticides are more environmentally benign than synthetic ones. All pesticides must be evaluated using an empirically-based risk assessment, because generalizations based on chemical origin do not hold true in all cases.

  2. Controls Mitigating the Risk of Confidential Information Disclosure by Facebook: Essential Concern in Auditing Information Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Ognyanov Kuyumdzhiev

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Facebook allows people to easily share information about themselves which in some cases could be classified as confidential or sensitive in the organisation they’re working for. In this paper we discuss the type of data stored by Facebook and the scope of the terms “confidential” and “sensitive data”. The intersection of these areas shows that there is high possibility for confidential data disclosure in organisations with none or ineffective security policy. This paper proposes a strategy for managing the risks of information leakage. We define five levels of controls against posting non-public data on Facebook - security policy, applications installed on employees’ workstations, specific router software or firmware, software in the cloud, Facebook itself. Advantages and disadvantages of every level are evaluated. As a result we propose developing of new control integrated in the social media.

  3. HOW TO MITIGATE THE RISKS OF MANAGING ONLINE ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS BY TRAINING WITH SIMBOUND SIMULATION GAME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Doru Havriliuc

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to describe how a digital marketing simulation system improve the knowledge and skills of students, as well as their status as members of a virtual community, which gradually evolve from novice to expert in managing online advertising campaigns. The body of the article encompasses three contributions: the know-how of the Simbound Game author, the practical experiences of an instructor, who coordinated students’ activities during three courses and of a Master student – the leader of a team which got the first position after the completion of a game. The advantages of managing no-risk online advertising campaigns are revealed and the students are able to understand how various online marketing tools become useful while a firm expands its operations in e-commerce and must fulfill new tasks and responsibilities. The paper concludes with the practical implications of the Simbound simulation-based learning and the ideas included in the future research agenda.

  4. Risky business. Fossil risk mitigation and enhanced energy security from renewables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Awerbuch, S.

    2006-01-01

    It is argued that the cost estimates associated with the development and diversification of energy policies may be flawed. The document points out that renewables such as wind can be used as a hedge against risk in a balanced portfolio. The calculation of future generating costs is a crucial factor to be taken into account but the figures for the future are highly uncertain. It is argued that traditional electricity costs, in terms of kWh, are unreliable and should be given little weight in energy policy deliberations. It is suggested that investor groups should be asked to submit firm fixed-price bids for providing wind, coal and gas-base electricity over the next 25-30 years. Wind and other fixed-cost energy sources can help nations avoid costly economic consequences stemming from fluctuation in the price of oil

  5. Factors Influencing the Decision to Proceed to Firmware Upgrades to Implanted Pacemakers for Cybersecurity Risk Mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxon, Leslie A; Varma, Niraj; Epstein, Laurence M; Ganz, Leonard I; Epstein, Andrew E

    2018-05-10

    In August 2017, the first major recall for cybersecurity vulnerabilities in pacemakers capable of remote connectivity was released that impacted 465,000 United States patients. 1,2 The FDA approved a firmware update designed by the manufacturer of the devices as a remediation (Abbott , formally St. Jude Medical). The recall was in response to the public disclosure of vulnerability by an investment firm and produced in a lab environment that could allow an unauthorized party in close proximity to a patient to impact the performance of the device or modify device settings via radio frequency communication. 3 While an exploit has not occurred in a patient and requires a high degree of resources and skill to execute, if accomplished, it could pose a significant risk to device safety and essential performance and cause patient harm. The FDA defines this as an uncontrolled vulnerability. 2 The recall recommendations were coordinated between the FDA, the Industrial Control Systems Cyber Emergency Response Team (ICS-CERT), a division of Homeland Security that responds to and coordinates disclosure of critical infrastructure cybersecurity vulnerabilities and Abbott. 1 All parties urged caution and shared decision making between patient and clinician as to whether to have the device firmware update, a process that requires a clinic visit to implement with a device programmer. The manufacturer bench tested the firmware update but the only prior experience with an implanted device firmware updates was a 2012 ICD firmware update that demonstrated a 0.197% risk of device back-up mode pacing after the upgrade was performed.

  6. Glacial Hazards in Chile: Processes, Assessment, Mitigation and Risk Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasser, N. F.; Wilson, R.; Casassa, G., Sr.; Reynolds, J.; Harrison, S.; Shannon, S. R.; Schaefer, M.; Iribarran, P.

    2017-12-01

    Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are capable of travelling considerable distances from their source and they represent one of the most important glacial hazards. In line with observations in other parts of the world, the frequency of GLOF events in Chile has increased in recent decades highlighting the need to quantify the flood risk posed to downstream areas. This poster presents the work of the `Glacial Hazards in Chile' project which aims to (1) better understand the processes that govern the development of GLOFs in Chile, (2) estimate the socio-economic effects of GLOFs in Chile, and (3) provide a GLOF risk assessment framework that can be applied to Chile and other lower income countries globally. As an initial step towards the completion of these aims, we have recently compiled the first glacial lake inventory for the central and Patagonian Andes, which details the temporal development of glacial lakes in this region over the past three decades. This analysis was used to identify two lakes of interest that were visited during a fieldwork expedition in February 2017. The first of these, Lago Chileno in Patagonia, has recently produced a large GLOF causing significant damage to the downstream floodplain, whilst the second was identified as one of the fastest growing lakes in the central Andes. Both these lakes were surveyed using aerial imagery acquired with a drone and a custom-built bathymetry boat, data from which will help to improve our understanding of the physical processes associated with glacial lake development and failure within the Chilean Andes.

  7. Mitigating the risk of opioid abuse through a balanced undergraduate pain medicine curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morley-Forster PK

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Patricia K Morley-Forster,1,2 Joseph V Pergolizzi,3–5 Robert Taylor Jr,5 Robert A Axford-Gatley,6 Edward M Sellers71Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Medicine, University of Western Ontario, London, ON, Canada; 2Outpatient Pain Clinic, St Joseph’s Hospital, London, ON, Canada; 3Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA; 4Department of Pharmacology, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, PA, USA; 5NEMA Research Inc, Naples, FL, USA; 6Clinical Content and Editorial Services, Complete Healthcare Communications, Inc, Chadds Ford, PA, USA; 7DL Global Partners Inc, Toronto, ON, CanadaAbstract: Chronic pain is highly prevalent in the United States and Canada, occurring in an estimated 30% of the adult population. Despite its high prevalence, US and Canadian medical schools provide very little training in pain management, including training in the safe and effective use of potent analgesics, most notably opioids. In 2005, the International Association for the Study of Pain published recommendations for a core undergraduate pain management curriculum, and several universities have implemented pilot programs based on this curriculum. However, when outcomes have been formally assessed, these initiatives have resulted in only modest improvements in physician knowledge about chronic pain and its treatment. This article discusses strategies to improve undergraduate pain management curricula and proposes areas in which those efforts can be augmented. Emphasis is placed on opioids, which have great potency as analgesics but also substantial risks in terms of adverse events and the risk of abuse and addiction. The authors conclude that the most important element of an undergraduate pain curriculum is clinical experience under mentors who are capable of reinforcing didactic learning by modeling best practices.Keywords: chronic pain, curricular content, medical education, opioids, pain

  8. Simvastatin mitigates increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease following 10 Gy total body irradiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenarczyk, Marek; Su, Jidong; Haworth, Steven T; Komorowski, Richard; Fish, Brian L; Migrino, Raymond Q; Harmann, Leanne; Hopewell, John W; Kronenberg, Amy; Patel, Shailendra; Moulder, John E; Baker, John E

    2015-06-01

    The ability of simvastatin to mitigate the increases in risk factors for and the occurrence of cardiac disease after 10 Gy total body irradiation (TBI) was determined. This radiation dose is relevant to conditioning for stem cell transplantation and threats from radiological terrorism. Male rats received single dose TBI of 10 Gy. Age-matched, sham-irradiated rats served as controls. Lipid profile, heart and liver morphology and cardiac mechanical function were determined for up to 120 days after irradiation. TBI resulted in a sustained increase in total- and LDL-cholesterol (low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol), and triglycerides. Simvastatin (10 mg/kg body weight/day) administered continuously from 9 days after irradiation mitigated TBI-induced increases in total- and LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides, as well as liver injury. TBI resulted in cellular peri-arterial fibrosis, whereas control hearts had less collagen and fibrosis. Simvastatin mitigated these morphological injuries. TBI resulted in cardiac mechanical dysfunction. Simvastatin mitigated cardiac mechanical dysfunction 20-120 days following TBI. To determine whether simvastatin affects the ability of the heart to withstand stress after TBI, injury from myocardial ischemia/reperfusion was determined in vitro. TBI increased the severity of an induced myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days after irradiation. Simvastatin mitigated the severity of this myocardial infarction at 20 and 80 days following TBI. It is concluded simvastatin mitigated the increases in risk factors for cardiac disease and the extent of cardiac disease following TBI. This statin may be developed as a medical countermeasure for the mitigation of radiation-induced cardiac disease.

  9. Ridge and furrow systems with film cover increase maize yields and mitigate climate risks of cold and drought stress in continental climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dong, Wanlin; Zhang, Lizhen; Duan, Yu; Sun, Li; Zhao, Peiyi; Werf, van der Wopke; Evers, Jochem B.; Wang, Qi; Wang, Ruonan; Sun, Zhigang

    2017-01-01

    Ridge-furrow tillage and plastic film cover are widely applied in China to mitigate climate risks, e.g. cool temperature and low rainfall. This study aimed to quantify the effects of ridge-furrow tillage and film cover on maize growth and yield in an environment with frequent seasonal drought and

  10. Resilience of an Earthquake-Stricken Rural Community in Southwest China: Correlation with Disaster Risk Reduction Efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Ke; Han, Ziqiang; Wang, Dongming

    2018-02-27

    Disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities have given growing attention to building community resilience, but the effects of such efforts on community resilience are still under-investigated, especially in China where the concept of community resilience has only just emerged. Using the Communities Advancing Resilience Toolkit Assessment Survey, data on self-perceived community resilience were collected in 2017 from a post-disaster Chinese rural community in Yingxiu Town, which was the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake (Magnitude = 8.0) in the year 2008. Linear regression analyses were conducted to explore the correlations between residents' DRR behaviors and perceived community resilience with the control of their socio-demographic characteristics including age, ethnicity, gender, education, income level, employment status and marital status. Results indicate that residents who volunteered for DRR activities received geological disaster education, participated in evacuation drills, and reported higher income levels had a perception of higher community resilience. Practice research is suggested to help clarify the cause and effect of DRR work on the enhancement of community resilience to disasters in China and abroad. Attention is also called to the development of a Chinese indigenous community resilience concept and assessment instrument.

  11. What is the best use of 100 Euros to reduce the earthquake risk of a residential masonry building in a developed nation? Optimisation and Quantification of the benefits of risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Schaefer, Andreas; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2015-04-01

    The average loss per building in developed countries like Australia or Switzerland due to earthquakes will be far in excess of 100€ over a political lifetime of 4 years (via a stochastic risk assessment). So a good question is, what can be done for 100€ and a bit of hard work, to strengthen and retrofit a URM (unreinforced masonry house). Of course much of the loss occurs in a few large events, but significant damage also occurs from more frequent smaller events. Using the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database (Daniell et al., 2011), 57% of deaths from earthquakes have occurred in masonry buildings since 1900 globally. Thus, with a view towards life safety and the maximum return on investment, different options are tested and discussed for retrofitting the average brick house for earthquake resistance. Bolting and bracketing furniture, electrical equipment and valuables to walls, the removal or tying in of certain non-structural elements, as well as adjustments such as seismic wallpaper and reinforcement are tested from empirical and analytical experience from around the world. Of course, earthquakes are not the only main concern for developed nation populations, so a view as to the best use of the 100€ is looked at in combination with other disaster types. Insurance takeout and its implications are also discussed. The process is repeated for the D-A-CH (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) region in order to see the regional economic implications for widespread awareness of earthquake risks and losses. The risk reduction is quantified and is seen to be significant for nearly all of the D-A-CH region. This analysis has implications for developed and developing nations alike.

  12. NSR&D Program Fiscal Year (FY) 2015 Call for Proposals Mitigation of Seismic Risk at Nuclear Facilities using Seismic Isolation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-02-01

    Seismic isolation (SI) has the potential to drastically reduce seismic response of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) and therefore the risk associated with large seismic events (large seismic event could be defined as the design basis earthquake (DBE) and/or the beyond design basis earthquake (BDBE) depending on the site location). This would correspond to a potential increase in nuclear safety by minimizing the structural response and thus minimizing the risk of material release during large seismic events that have uncertainty associated with their magnitude and frequency. The national consensus standard America Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Standard 4, Seismic Analysis of Safety Related Nuclear Structures recently incorporated language and commentary for seismically isolating a large light water reactor or similar large nuclear structure. Some potential benefits of SI are: 1) substantially decoupling the SSC from the earthquake hazard thus decreasing risk of material release during large earthquakes, 2) cost savings for the facility and/or equipment, and 3) applicability to both nuclear (current and next generation) and high hazard non-nuclear facilities. Issue: To date no one has evaluated how the benefit of seismic risk reduction reduces cost to construct a nuclear facility. Objective: Use seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) to evaluate the reduction in seismic risk and estimate potential cost savings of seismic isolation of a generic nuclear facility. This project would leverage ongoing Idaho National Laboratory (INL) activities that are developing advanced (SPRA) methods using Nonlinear Soil-Structure Interaction (NLSSI) analysis. Technical Approach: The proposed study is intended to obtain an estimate on the reduction in seismic risk and construction cost that might be achieved by seismically isolating a nuclear facility. The nuclear facility is a representative pressurized water reactor building nuclear power plant (NPP) structure

  13. The role of floodplain restoration in mitigating flood risk, Lower Missouri River, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Robert B.; Lindner, Garth; Bitner, Chance; Hudson, Paul F.; Middelkoop, Hans

    2015-01-01

    Recent extreme floods on the Lower Missouri River have reinvigorated public policy debate about the potential role of floodplain restoration in decreasing costs of floods and possibly increasing other ecosystem service benefits. The first step to addressing the benefits of floodplain restoration is to understand the interactions of flow, floodplain morphology, and land cover that together determine the biophysical capacity of the floodplain. In this article we address interactions between ecological restoration of floodplains and flood-risk reduction at 3 scales. At the scale of the Lower Missouri River corridor (1300 km) floodplain elevation datasets and flow models provide first-order calculations of the potential for Missouri River floodplains to store floods of varying magnitude and duration. At this same scale assessment of floodplain sand deposition from the 2011 Missouri River flood indicates the magnitude of flood damage that could potentially be limited by floodplain restoration. At the segment scale (85 km), 1-dimensional hydraulic modeling predicts substantial stage reductions with increasing area of floodplain restoration; mean stage reductions range from 0.12 to 0.66 m. This analysis also indicates that channel widening may contribute substantially to stage reductions as part of a comprehensive strategy to restore floodplain and channel habitats. Unsteady 1-dimensional flow modeling of restoration scenarios at this scale indicates that attenuation of peak discharges of an observed hydrograph from May 2007, of similar magnitude to a 10 % annual exceedance probability flood, would be minimal, ranging from 0.04 % (with 16 % floodplain restoration) to 0.13 % (with 100 % restoration). At the reach scale (15–20 km) 2-dimensional hydraulic models of alternative levee setbacks and floodplain roughness indicate complex processes and patterns of flooding including substantial variation in stage reductions across floodplains depending on

  14. Improving cost-effectiveness and mitigating risks of renewable energy requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, James P.

    Policy makers at the federal and state levels of government are debating actions to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on oil as an energy source. Several concerns drive this debate: sharp rises in energy prices, increasing unease about the risks of climate change, energy security, and interest in expanding the domestic renewable energy industry. Renewable energy requirements are frequently proposed to address these concerns, and are currently in place, in various forms, at the federal and state levels of government. These policies specify that a certain portion of the energy supply come from renewable energy sources. This dissertation focuses on a specific proposal, known as 25 X 25, which requires 25% of electricity and motor vehicle transportation fuels supplied to U.S. consumers to come from renewable energy sources, such as wind power and ethanol, by 2025. This dissertation builds on prior energy policy analysis, and more specifically analyses of renewable energy requirements, by assessing the social welfare implications of a 25 x 25 policy and applying new methods of uncertainty analysis to multiple policy options decision makers can use to implement the policy. These methods identify policy options that can improve the cost-effectiveness an