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Sample records for earthquake magnitude

  1. Extreme value distribution of earthquake magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Jun Gan; Tung, C. C.

    1983-07-01

    Probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude is first derived for an unspecified probability distribution of earthquake magnitude. A model for energy release of large earthquakes, similar to that of Adler-Lomnitz and Lomnitz, is introduced from which the probability distribution of earthquake magnitude is obtained. An extensive set of world data for shallow earthquakes, covering the period from 1904 to 1980, is used to determine the parameters of the probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude. Because of the special form of probability distribution of earthquake magnitude, a simple iterative scheme is devised to facilitate the estimation of these parameters by the method of least-squares. The agreement between the empirical and derived probability distributions of maximum earthquake magnitude is excellent.

  2. Strong motion duration and earthquake magnitude relationships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salmon, M.W.; Short, S.A.; Kennedy, R.P.

    1992-06-01

    Earthquake duration is the total time of ground shaking from the arrival of seismic waves until the return to ambient conditions. Much of this time is at relatively low shaking levels which have little effect on seismic structural response and on earthquake damage potential. As a result, a parameter termed ''strong motion duration'' has been defined by a number of investigators to be used for the purpose of evaluating seismic response and assessing the potential for structural damage due to earthquakes. This report presents methods for determining strong motion duration and a time history envelope function appropriate for various evaluation purposes, for earthquake magnitude and distance, and for site soil properties. There are numerous definitions of strong motion duration. For most of these definitions, empirical studies have been completed which relate duration to earthquake magnitude and distance and to site soil properties. Each of these definitions recognizes that only the portion of an earthquake record which has sufficiently high acceleration amplitude, energy content, or some other parameters significantly affects seismic response. Studies have been performed which indicate that the portion of an earthquake record in which the power (average rate of energy input) is maximum correlates most closely with potential damage to stiff nuclear power plant structures. Hence, this report will concentrate on energy based strong motion duration definitions

  3. How fault geometry controls earthquake magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bletery, Q.; Thomas, A.; Karlstrom, L.; Rempel, A. W.; Sladen, A.; De Barros, L.

    2016-12-01

    Recent large megathrust earthquakes, such as the Mw9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in 2004 and the Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in 2011, astonished the scientific community. The first event occurred in a relatively low-convergence-rate subduction zone where events of its size were unexpected. The second event involved 60 m of shallow slip in a region thought to be aseismicaly creeping and hence incapable of hosting very large magnitude earthquakes. These earthquakes highlight gaps in our understanding of mega-earthquake rupture processes and the factors controlling their global distribution. Here we show that gradients in dip angle exert a primary control on mega-earthquake occurrence. We calculate the curvature along the major subduction zones of the world and show that past mega-earthquakes occurred on flat (low-curvature) interfaces. A simplified analytic model demonstrates that shear strength heterogeneity increases with curvature. Stress loading on flat megathrusts is more homogeneous and hence more likely to be released simultaneously over large areas than on highly-curved faults. Therefore, the absence of asperities on large faults might counter-intuitively be a source of higher hazard.

  4. EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED DEFORMATION STRUCTURES AND RELATED TO EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savaş TOPAL

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake-induced deformation structures which are called seismites may helpful to clasify the paleoseismic history of a location and to estimate the magnitudes of the potention earthquakes in the future. In this paper, seismites were investigated according to the types formed in deep and shallow lake sediments. Seismites are observed forms of sand dikes, introduced and fractured gravels and pillow structures in shallow lakes and pseudonodules, mushroom-like silts protruding laminites, mixed layers, disturbed varved lamination and loop bedding in deep lake sediments. Earthquake-induced deformation structures, by benefiting from previous studies, were ordered according to their formations and earthquake magnitudes. In this order, the lowest eartquake's record is loop bedding and the highest one is introduced and fractured gravels in lacustrine deposits.

  5. Scaling relations of moment magnitude, local magnitude, and duration magnitude for earthquakes originated in northeast India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bora, Dipok K.

    2016-06-01

    In this study, we aim to improve the scaling between the moment magnitude ( M W), local magnitude ( M L), and the duration magnitude ( M D) for 162 earthquakes in Shillong-Mikir plateau and its adjoining region of northeast India by extending the M W estimates to lower magnitude earthquakes using spectral analysis of P-waves from vertical component seismograms. The M W- M L and M W- M D relationships are determined by linear regression analysis. It is found that, M W values can be considered consistent with M L and M D, within 0.1 and 0.2 magnitude units respectively, in 90 % of the cases. The scaling relationships investigated comply well with similar relationships in other regions in the world and in other seismogenic areas in the northeast India region.

  6. Magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes in relation to seismic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, R.D.

    1989-01-01

    Estimating the frequencies of occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitudes on a regional basis is an important task in estimating seismic risk at a construction site. Analysis of global earthquake data provides an insight into the magnitudes frequency relationship in a statistical manner. It turns out that, whereas a linear relationship between the logarithm of earthquake occurrence rates and the corresponding earthquake magnitudes fits well in the magnitude range between 5 and 7, a second degree polynomial in M, the earthquake magnitude provides a better description of the frequencies of earthquakes in a much wider range of magnitudes. It may be possible to adopt magnitude frequency relation for regions, for which adequate earthquake data are not available, to carry out seismic risk calculations. (author). 32 refs., 8 tabs., 7 figs

  7. Non extensivity and frequency magnitude distribution of earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sotolongo-Costa, Oscar; Posadas, Antonio

    2003-01-01

    Starting from first principles (in this case a non-extensive formulation of the maximum entropy principle) and a phenomenological approach, an explicit formula for the magnitude distribution of earthquakes is derived, which describes earthquakes in the whole range of magnitudes. The Gutenberg-Richter law appears as a particular case of the obtained formula. Comparison with geophysical data gives a very good agreement

  8. Magnitude Estimation for Large Earthquakes from Borehole Recordings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshaghi, A.; Tiampo, K. F.; Ghofrani, H.; Atkinson, G.

    2012-12-01

    We present a simple and fast method for magnitude determination technique for earthquake and tsunami early warning systems based on strong ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in Japan. This method incorporates borehole strong motion records provided by the Kiban Kyoshin network (KiK-net) stations. We analyzed strong ground motion data from large magnitude earthquakes (5.0 ≤ M ≤ 8.1) with focal depths < 50 km and epicentral distances of up to 400 km from 1996 to 2010. Using both peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) we derived GMPEs in Japan. These GMPEs are used as the basis for regional magnitude determination. Predicted magnitudes from PGA values (Mpga) and predicted magnitudes from PGV values (Mpgv) were defined. Mpga and Mpgv strongly correlate with the moment magnitude of the event, provided sufficient records for each event are available. The results show that Mpgv has a smaller standard deviation in comparison to Mpga when compared with the estimated magnitudes and provides a more accurate early assessment of earthquake magnitude. We test this new method to estimate the magnitude of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and we present the results of this estimation. PGA and PGV from borehole recordings allow us to estimate the magnitude of this event 156 s and 105 s after the earthquake onset, respectively. We demonstrate that the incorporation of borehole strong ground-motion records immediately available after the occurrence of large earthquakes significantly increases the accuracy of earthquake magnitude estimation and the associated improvement in earthquake and tsunami early warning systems performance. Moment magnitude versus predicted magnitude (Mpga and Mpgv).

  9. On the magnitude and recurence of Vrancea earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oncescu, M.C.

    1987-07-01

    The moment-magnitude scale Msub(W) is proposed for the quantification of Vrancea earthquakes. The asperity model is found adequate to explain the observed quasi-cycles and super-cycles in the occurrence of large events. (auhtor)

  10. Iranian earthquakes, a uniform catalog with moment magnitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimiparidari, Sepideh; Zaré, Mehdi; Memarian, Hossein; Kijko, Andrzej

    2013-07-01

    A uniform earthquake catalog is an essential tool in any seismic hazard analysis. In this study, an earthquake catalog of Iran and adjacent areas was compiled, using international and national databanks. The following priorities were applied in selecting magnitude and earthquake location: (a) local catalogs were given higher priority for establishing the location of an earthquake and (b) global catalogs were preferred for determining earthquake magnitudes. Earthquakes that have occurred within the bounds between 23-42° N and 42-65° E, with a magnitude range of M W 3.5-7.9, from the third millennium BC until April 2010 were included. In an effort to avoid the "boundary effect," since the newly compiled catalog will be mainly used for seismic hazard assessment, the study area includes the areas adjacent to Iran. The standardization of the catalog in terms of magnitude was achieved by the conversion of all types of magnitude into moment magnitude, M W, by using the orthogonal regression technique. In the newly compiled catalog, all aftershocks were detected, based on the procedure described by Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64:1363-1367, 1974). The seismicity parameters were calculated for the six main tectonic seismic zones of Iran, i.e., the Zagros Mountain Range, the Alborz Mountain Range, Central Iran, Kope Dagh, Azerbaijan, and Makran.

  11. Correlating precursory declines in groundwater radon with earthquake magnitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, T

    2014-01-01

    Both studies at the Antung hot spring in eastern Taiwan and at the Paihe spring in southern Taiwan confirm that groundwater radon can be a consistent tracer for strain changes in the crust preceding an earthquake when observed in a low-porosity fractured aquifer surrounded by a ductile formation. Recurrent anomalous declines in groundwater radon were observed at the Antung D1 monitoring well in eastern Taiwan prior to the five earthquakes of magnitude (Mw ): 6.8, 6.1, 5.9, 5.4, and 5.0 that occurred on December 10, 2003; April 1, 2006; April 15, 2006; February 17, 2008; and July 12, 2011, respectively. For earthquakes occurring on the longitudinal valley fault in eastern Taiwan, the observed radon minima decrease as the earthquake magnitude increases. The above correlation has been proven to be useful for early warning local large earthquakes. In southern Taiwan, radon anomalous declines prior to the 2010 Mw 6.3 Jiasian, 2012 Mw 5.9 Wutai, and 2012 ML 5.4 Kaohsiung earthquakes were also recorded at the Paihe spring. For earthquakes occurring on different faults in southern Taiwan, the correlation between the observed radon minima and the earthquake magnitude is not yet possible. © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

  12. Determining on-fault earthquake magnitude distributions from integer programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.

    2018-01-01

    Earthquake magnitude distributions among faults within a fault system are determined from regional seismicity and fault slip rates using binary integer programming. A synthetic earthquake catalog (i.e., list of randomly sampled magnitudes) that spans millennia is first formed, assuming that regional seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter relation. Each earthquake in the synthetic catalog can occur on any fault and at any location. The objective is to minimize misfits in the target slip rate for each fault, where slip for each earthquake is scaled from its magnitude. The decision vector consists of binary variables indicating which locations are optimal among all possibilities. Uncertainty estimates in fault slip rates provide explicit upper and lower bounding constraints to the problem. An implicit constraint is that an earthquake can only be located on a fault if it is long enough to contain that earthquake. A general mixed-integer programming solver, consisting of a number of different algorithms, is used to determine the optimal decision vector. A case study is presented for the State of California, where a 4 kyr synthetic earthquake catalog is created and faults with slip ≥3 mm/yr are considered, resulting in >106  variables. The optimal magnitude distributions for each of the faults in the system span a rich diversity of shapes, ranging from characteristic to power-law distributions. 

  13. Lower bound earthquake magnitude for probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCann, M.W. Jr.; Reed, J.W.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a study that develops an engineering and seismological basis for selecting a lower-bound magnitude (LBM) for use in seismic hazard assessment. As part of a seismic hazard analysis the range of earthquake magnitudes that are included in the assessment of the probability of exceedance of ground motion must be defined. The upper-bound magnitude is established by earth science experts based on their interpretation of the maximum size of earthquakes that can be generated by a seismic source. The lower-bound or smallest earthquake that is considered in the analysis must also be specified. The LBM limits the earthquakes that are considered in assessing the probability that specified ground motion levels are exceeded. In the past there has not been a direct consideration of the appropriate LBM value that should be used in a seismic hazard assessment. This study specifically looks at the selection of a LBM for use in seismic hazard analyses that are input to the evaluation/design of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Topics addressed in the evaluation of a LBM are earthquake experience data at heavy industrial facilities, engineering characteristics of ground motions associated with small-magnitude earthquakes, probabilistic seismic risk assessments (seismic PRAs), and seismic margin evaluations. The results of this study and the recommendations concerning a LBM for use in seismic hazard assessments are discussed. (orig.)

  14. Probable Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes for the Cascadia Subduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, Y.; Jackson, D. D.; Magistrale, H.; Goldfinger, C.

    2013-12-01

    The concept of maximum earthquake magnitude (mx) is widely used in seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, absolute mx lacks a precise definition and cannot be determined from a finite earthquake history. The surprising magnitudes of the 2004 Sumatra and the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes showed that most methods for estimating mx underestimate the true maximum if it exists. Thus, we introduced the alternate concept of mp(T), probable maximum magnitude within a time interval T. The mp(T) can be solved using theoretical magnitude-frequency distributions such as Tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) distribution. The two TGR parameters, β-value (which equals 2/3 b-value in the GR distribution) and corner magnitude (mc), can be obtained by applying maximum likelihood method to earthquake catalogs with additional constraint from tectonic moment rate. Here, we integrate the paleoseismic data in the Cascadia subduction zone to estimate mp. The Cascadia subduction zone has been seismically quiescent since at least 1900. Fortunately, turbidite studies have unearthed a 10,000 year record of great earthquakes along the subduction zone. We thoroughly investigate the earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution of the region by combining instrumental and paleoseismic data, and using the tectonic moment rate information. To use the paleoseismic data, we first estimate event magnitudes, which we achieve by using the time interval between events, rupture extent of the events, and turbidite thickness. We estimate three sets of TGR parameters: for the first two sets, we consider a geographically large Cascadia region that includes the subduction zone, and the Explorer, Juan de Fuca, and Gorda plates; for the third set, we consider a narrow geographic region straddling the subduction zone. In the first set, the β-value is derived using the GCMT catalog. In the second and third sets, the β-value is derived using both the GCMT and paleoseismic data. Next, we calculate the corresponding mc

  15. The Strain Energy, Seismic Moment and Magnitudes of Large Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcaru, G.

    2004-12-01

    The strain energy Est, as potential energy, released by an earthquake and the seismic moment Mo are two fundamental physical earthquake parameters. The earthquake rupture process ``represents'' the release of the accumulated Est. The moment Mo, first obtained in 1966 by Aki, revolutioned the quantification of earthquake size and led to the elimination of the limitations of the conventional magnitudes (originally ML, Richter, 1930) mb, Ms, m, MGR. Both Mo and Est, not in a 1-to-1 correspondence, are uniform measures of the size, although Est is presently less accurate than Mo. Est is partitioned in seismic- (Es), fracture- (Eg) and frictional-energy Ef, and Ef is lost as frictional heat energy. The available Est = Es + Eg (Aki and Richards (1980), Kostrov and Das, (1988) for fundamentals on Mo and Est). Related to Mo, Est and Es, several modern magnitudes were defined under various assumptions: the moment magnitude Mw (Kanamori, 1977), strain energy magnitude ME (Purcaru and Berckhemer, 1978), tsunami magnitude Mt (Abe, 1979), mantle magnitude Mm (Okal and Talandier, 1987), seismic energy magnitude Me (Choy and Boatright, 1995, Yanovskaya et al, 1996), body-wave magnitude Mpw (Tsuboi et al, 1998). The available Est = (1/2μ )Δ σ Mo, Δ σ ~=~average stress drop, and ME is % \\[M_E = 2/3(\\log M_o + \\log(\\Delta\\sigma/\\mu)-12.1) ,\\] % and log Est = 11.8 + 1.5 ME. The estimation of Est was modified to include Mo, Δ and μ of predominant high slip zones (asperities) to account for multiple events (Purcaru, 1997): % \\[E_{st} = \\frac{1}{2} \\sum_i {\\frac{1}{\\mu_i} M_{o,i} \\Delta\\sigma_i} , \\sum_i M_{o,i} = M_o \\] % We derived the energy balance of Est, Es and Eg as: % \\[ E_{st}/M_o = (1+e(g,s)) E_s/M_o , e(g,s) = E_g/E_s \\] % We analyzed a set of about 90 large earthquakes and found that, depending on the goal these magnitudes quantify differently the rupture process, thus providing complementary means of earthquake characterization. Results for some

  16. Rapid earthquake magnitude determination for Vrancea early warning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marmureanu, Alexandru

    2009-01-01

    Due to the huge amount of recorded data, an automatic procedure was developed and used to test different methods to rapidly evaluate earthquake magnitude from the first seconds of the P wave. In order to test all the algorithms involved in detection and rapid earthquake magnitude estimation, several tests were performed, in order to avoid false alarms. A special detection algorithm was developed, that is based on the classical STA/LTA algorithm and tuned for early warning purpose. A method to rapidly estimate magnitude in 4 seconds from detection of P wave in the epicenter is proposed. The method was tested on al recorded data, and the magnitude error determination is acceptable taking into account that it is computed from only 3 stations in a very short time interval. (author)

  17. Automated Determination of Magnitude and Source Length of Large Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Kawakatsu, H.; Zhuang, J.; Mori, J. J.; Maeda, T.; Tsuruoka, H.; Zhao, X.

    2017-12-01

    Rapid determination of earthquake magnitude is of importance for estimating shaking damages, and tsunami hazards. However, due to the complexity of source process, accurately estimating magnitude for great earthquakes in minutes after origin time is still a challenge. Mw is an accurate estimate for large earthquakes. However, calculating Mw requires the whole wave trains including P, S, and surface phases, which takes tens of minutes to reach stations at tele-seismic distances. To speed up the calculation, methods using W phase and body wave are developed for fast estimating earthquake sizes. Besides these methods that involve Green's Functions and inversions, there are other approaches that use empirically simulated relations to estimate earthquake magnitudes, usually for large earthquakes. The nature of simple implementation and straightforward calculation made these approaches widely applied at many institutions such as the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the USGS. Here we developed an approach that was originated from Hara [2007], estimating magnitude by considering P-wave displacement and source duration. We introduced a back-projection technique [Wang et al., 2016] instead to estimate source duration using array data from a high-sensitive seismograph network (Hi-net). The introduction of back-projection improves the method in two ways. Firstly, the source duration could be accurately determined by seismic array. Secondly, the results can be more rapidly calculated, and data derived from farther stations are not required. We purpose to develop an automated system for determining fast and reliable source information of large shallow seismic events based on real time data of a dense regional array and global data, for earthquakes that occur at distance of roughly 30°- 85° from the array center. This system can offer fast and robust estimates of magnitudes and rupture extensions of large earthquakes in 6 to 13 min (plus

  18. Local magnitude, duration magnitude and seismic moment of Dahshour 1992 earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    M. F. Abdelwahed; E. M. Abdelrahman; H. M. Hussein; M. M. Dessokey

    2000-01-01

    Local magnitudes ML have been calculated for 56 earthquakes of the Dahshour 1992 sequence using simulated records of the KEG broadband station and the estimated calibration function of the Dahshour area. These were compared with their corresponding values of duration magnitudes obtained from the analog short period seismograms of the HLW station. The local magnitudes M L and the duration magnitudes M D for this region imply a linear relation as follows: M L = 1.2988 (± 0.04) M D – 0.9032 (± 0...

  19. Moment Magnitude ( M W) and Local Magnitude ( M L) Relationship for Earthquakes in Northeast India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruah, Santanu; Baruah, Saurabh; Bora, P. K.; Duarah, R.; Kalita, Aditya; Biswas, Rajib; Gogoi, N.; Kayal, J. R.

    2012-11-01

    An attempt has been made to examine an empirical relationship between moment magnitude ( M W) and local magnitude ( M L) for the earthquakes in the northeast Indian region. Some 364 earthquakes that were recorded during 1950-2009 are used in this study. Focal mechanism solutions of these earthquakes include 189 Harvard-CMT solutions ( M W ≥ 4.0) for the period 1976-2009, 61 published solutions and 114 solutions obtained for the local earthquakes (2.0 ≤ M L ≤ 5.0) recorded by a 27-station permanent broadband network during 2001-2009 in the region. The M W- M L relationships in seven selected zones of the region are determined by linear regression analysis. A significant variation in the M W- M L relationship and its zone specific dependence are reported here. It is found that M W is equivalent to M L with an average uncertainty of about 0.13 magnitude units. A single relationship is, however, not adequate to scale the entire northeast Indian region because of heterogeneous geologic and geotectonic environments where earthquakes occur due to collisions, subduction and complex intra-plate tectonics.

  20. Local magnitude, duration magnitude and seismic moment of Dahshour 1992 earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dessokey, M.M.; Abdelwahed, M.F. [National research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Cairo (Egypt). Dept. of Seismology; Hussein, H.M.; Abdelrahman, El. M. [Cairo Univ., Cairo (Egypt). Dept. of Geophysics

    2000-02-01

    Local magnitude M{sub L} have been calculated for 56 earthquakes of the Dahshour 1992 sequence using simulated records of the KEG broadband station and estimated calibration function of the area. The measurements, derived by the simulated Wood Anderson seismograms, are analysed and discussed.

  1. Large magnitude earthquakes on the Awatere Fault, Marlborough

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mason, D.P.M.; Little, T.A.; Van Dissen, R.J.

    2006-01-01

    The Awatere Fault is a principal active strike-slip fault within the Marlborough fault system, and last ruptured in October 1848, in the M w ∼7.5 Marlborough earthquake. The coseismic slip distribution and maximum traceable length of this rupture are calculated from the magnitude and distribution of small, metre-scale geomorphic displacements attributable to this earthquake. These data suggest this event ruptured ∼110 km of the fault, with mean horizontal surface displacement of 5.3 ± 1.6m. Based on these parameters, the moment magnitude of this earthquake would be M w ∼7.4-7.7. Paeloseismic trenching investigations along the eastern section reveal evidence for at least eight, and possibly ten, surface-rupturing paleoearthquakes in the last 8600 years, including the 1848 rupture. The coseismic slip distribution and rupture length of the 1848 earthquake, in combination with the paleoearthquake age data, suggest the eastern section of the Awatere Fault ruptures in M w ∼7.5 earthquakes, with over 5 m of surface displacement, every 860-1080 years. (author). 21 refs., 10 figs., 7 tabs

  2. Regional moment: Magnitude relations for earthquakes and explosions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patton, H.J.; Walter, W.R. (Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States))

    1993-02-19

    The authors present M[sub o]:m[sub b] relations using m[sub b](P[sub n]) and m[sub b](L[sub g]) for earthquakes and explosions occurring in tectonic and stable areas. The observations for m[sub b](P[sub n]) range from about 3 to 6 and show excellent separation between earthquakes and explosions on M[sub o]:m[sub b] plots, independent of the magnitude. The scatter in M[sub o]:M[sub b] observations for NTS explosions is small compared to the earthquake data. The M[sub o]:m[sub b](L[sub g]) data for Soviet explosions overlay the observations for US explosions. These results, and the small scatter for NTS explosions, suggest weak dependence of M[sub o]:m[sub b] relations on emplacement media. A simple theoretical model is developed which matches all these observations. The model uses scaling similarity and conservation of energy to provide a physical link between seismic moment and a broadband seismic magnitude. Three factors, radiation pattern, material property, and apparent stress, contribute to the separation between earthquakes and explosions. This theoretical separation is independent of broadband magnitude. For US explosions in different media, the material property and apparent stress contributions are shown to compensate for one another, supporting the observations that M[sub o]:M[sub b] is nearly independent of source geology. 19 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Local magnitude, duration magnitude and seismic moment of Dahshour 1992 earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Abdelwahed

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Local magnitudes ML have been calculated for 56 earthquakes of the Dahshour 1992 sequence using simulated records of the KEG broadband station and the estimated calibration function of the Dahshour area. These were compared with their corresponding values of duration magnitudes obtained from the analog short period seismograms of the HLW station. The local magnitudes M L and the duration magnitudes M D for this region imply a linear relation as follows: M L = 1.2988 (± 0.04 M D – 0.9032 (± 0.14. Seismic moment has also been estimated for these events using simple measurements from the time domain records. These measurements based on the simulated Wood Anderson seismograms are used for the local magnitude (ML estimation. The derived relationship between seismic moment (M 0 and magnitude (M L is: log (M 0 = 0.954 (± 0.019 M L + 17.258 (± 0.075.

  4. Automatic computation of moment magnitudes for small earthquakes and the scaling of local to moment magnitude

    OpenAIRE

    Edwards, Benjamin; Allmann, Bettina; Fäh, Donat; Clinton, John

    2017-01-01

    Moment magnitudes (MW) are computed for small and moderate earthquakes using a spectral fitting method. 40 of the resulting values are compared with those from broadband moment tensor solutions and found to match with negligible offset and scatter for available MW values of between 2.8 and 5.0. Using the presented method, MW are computed for 679 earthquakes in Switzerland with a minimum ML= 1.3. A combined bootstrap and orthogonal L1 minimization is then used to produce a scaling relation bet...

  5. Integration and magnitude homogenization of the Egyptian earthquake catalogue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hussein, H.M.; Abou Elenean, K.A.; Marzouk, I.A.; Abu El-Nader, E.; Peresan, A.; Korrat, I.M.; Panza, G.F.; El-Gabry, M.N.

    2008-03-01

    The aim of the present work is to compile and update a catalogue of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Egypt, with uniform and homogeneous source parameters as required for the analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment. This in turn requires a detailed analysis and comparison of the properties of different available sources, including the distribution of events with time, the magnitude completeness and the scaling relations between different kinds of magnitude reported by different agencies. The observational data cover the time interval 1900- 2004 and an area between 22--33.5 deg N and 25--3 6 deg. E. The linear regressions between various magnitude types have been evaluated for different magnitude ranges. Using the best linear relationship determined for each available pair of magnitudes, as well as those identified between the magnitudes and the seismic moment, we convert the different magnitude types into moment magnitudes M W , through a multi-step conversion process. Analysis of the catalogue completeness, based on the MW thus estimated, allows us to identify two different time intervals with homogeneous properties. The first one (1900- 1984) appears to be complete for M W ≥ 4.5, while the second one (1985-2004) can be considered complete for magnitudes M W ≥ 3. (author)

  6. Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τ c and P d method for earthquake early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xing; Zhang, Hongcai; Li, Jun; Wei, Yongxiang; Ma, Qiang

    2013-10-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τ c and P d methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The P d value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.

  7. What controls the maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, D. W. S.

    2017-12-01

    Three different approaches for estimation of maximum magnitude are considered here, along with their implications for managing risk. The first approach is based on a deterministic limit for seismic moment proposed by McGarr (1976), which was originally designed for application to mining-induced seismicity. This approach has since been reformulated for earthquakes induced by fluid injection (McGarr, 2014). In essence, this method assumes that the upper limit for seismic moment release is constrained by the pressure-induced stress change. A deterministic limit is given by the product of shear modulus and the net injected fluid volume. This method is based on the assumptions that the medium is fully saturated and in a state of incipient failure. An alternative geometrical approach was proposed by Shapiro et al. (2011), who postulated that the rupture area for an induced earthquake falls entirely within the stimulated volume. This assumption reduces the maximum-magnitude problem to one of estimating the largest potential slip surface area within a given stimulated volume. Finally, van der Elst et al. (2016) proposed that the maximum observed magnitude, statistically speaking, is the expected maximum value for a finite sample drawn from an unbounded Gutenberg-Richter distribution. These three models imply different approaches for risk management. The deterministic method proposed by McGarr (2014) implies that a ceiling on the maximum magnitude can be imposed by limiting the net injected volume, whereas the approach developed by Shapiro et al. (2011) implies that the time-dependent maximum magnitude is governed by the spatial size of the microseismic event cloud. Finally, the sample-size hypothesis of Van der Elst et al. (2016) implies that the best available estimate of the maximum magnitude is based upon observed seismicity rate. The latter two approaches suggest that real-time monitoring is essential for effective management of risk. A reliable estimate of maximum

  8. Scaling Relations of Local Magnitude versus Moment Magnitude for Sequences of Similar Earthquakes in Switzerland

    KAUST Repository

    Bethmann, F.

    2011-03-22

    Theoretical considerations and empirical regressions show that, in the magnitude range between 3 and 5, local magnitude, ML, and moment magnitude, Mw, scale 1:1. Previous studies suggest that for smaller magnitudes this 1:1 scaling breaks down. However, the scatter between ML and Mw at small magnitudes is usually large and the resulting scaling relations are therefore uncertain. In an attempt to reduce these uncertainties, we first analyze the ML versus Mw relation based on 195 events, induced by the stimulation of a geothermal reservoir below the city of Basel, Switzerland. Values of ML range from 0.7 to 3.4. From these data we derive a scaling of ML ~ 1:5Mw over the given magnitude range. We then compare peak Wood-Anderson amplitudes to the low-frequency plateau of the displacement spectra for six sequences of similar earthquakes in Switzerland in the range of 0:5 ≤ ML ≤ 4:1. Because effects due to the radiation pattern and to the propagation path between source and receiver are nearly identical at a particular station for all events in a given sequence, the scatter in the data is substantially reduced. Again we obtain a scaling equivalent to ML ~ 1:5Mw. Based on simulations using synthetic source time functions for different magnitudes and Q values estimated from spectral ratios between downhole and surface recordings, we conclude that the observed scaling can be explained by attenuation and scattering along the path. Other effects that could explain the observed magnitude scaling, such as a possible systematic increase of stress drop or rupture velocity with moment magnitude, are masked by attenuation along the path.

  9. Automatic computation of moment magnitudes for small earthquakes and the scaling of local to moment magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Benjamin; Allmann, Bettina; Fäh, Donat; Clinton, John

    2010-10-01

    Moment magnitudes (MW) are computed for small and moderate earthquakes using a spectral fitting method. 40 of the resulting values are compared with those from broadband moment tensor solutions and found to match with negligible offset and scatter for available MW values of between 2.8 and 5.0. Using the presented method, MW are computed for 679 earthquakes in Switzerland with a minimum ML = 1.3. A combined bootstrap and orthogonal L1 minimization is then used to produce a scaling relation between ML and MW. The scaling relation has a polynomial form and is shown to reduce the dependence of the predicted MW residual on magnitude relative to an existing linear scaling relation. The computation of MW using the presented spectral technique is fully automated at the Swiss Seismological Service, providing real-time solutions within 10 minutes of an event through a web-based XML database. The scaling between ML and MW is explored using synthetic data computed with a stochastic simulation method. It is shown that the scaling relation can be explained by the interaction of attenuation, the stress-drop and the Wood-Anderson filter. For instance, it is shown that the stress-drop controls the saturation of the ML scale, with low-stress drops (e.g. 0.1-1.0 MPa) leading to saturation at magnitudes as low as ML = 4.

  10. Moment Magnitudes and Local Magnitudes for Small Earthquakes: Implications for Ground-Motion Prediction and b-values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baltay, A.; Hanks, T. C.; Vernon, F.

    2016-12-01

    We illustrate two essential consequences of the systematic difference between moment magnitude and local magnitude for small earthquakes, illuminating the underlying earthquake physics. Moment magnitude, M 2/3 log M0, is uniformly valid for all earthquake sizes [Hanks and Kanamori, 1979]. However, the relationship between local magnitude ML and moment is itself magnitude dependent. For moderate events, 3> fmax. Just as importantly, if this relation is overlooked, prediction of large-magnitude ground motion from small earthquakes will be misguided. We also consider the effect of this magnitude scale difference on b-value. The oft-cited b-value of 1 should hold for small magnitudes, given M. Use of ML necessitates b=2/3 for the same data set; use of mixed, or unknown, magnitudes complicates the matter further. This is of particular import when estimating the rate of large earthquakes when one has limited data on their recurrence, as is the case for induced earthquakes in the central US.

  11. Multiple Spectral Ratio Analyses Reveal Earthquake Source Spectra of Small Earthquakes and Moment Magnitudes of Microearthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchide, T.; Imanishi, K.

    2016-12-01

    Spectral studies for macroscopic earthquake source parameters are helpful for characterizing earthquake rupture process and hence understanding earthquake source physics and fault properties. Those studies require us mute wave propagation path and site effects in spectra of seismograms to accentuate source effect. We have recently developed the multiple spectral ratio method [Uchide and Imanishi, BSSA, 2016] employing many empirical Green's function (EGF) events to reduce errors from the choice of EGF events. This method helps us estimate source spectra more accurately as well as moment ratios among reference and EGF events, which are useful to constrain the seismic moment of microearthquakes. First, we focus on earthquake source spectra. The source spectra have generally been thought to obey the omega-square model with single corner-frequency. However recent studies imply the existence of another corner frequency for some earthquakes. We analyzed small shallow inland earthquakes (3.5 multiple spectral ratio analyses. For 20000 microearthquakes in Fukushima Hamadori and northern Ibaraki prefecture area, we found that the JMA magnitudes (Mj) based on displacement or velocity amplitude are systematically below Mw. The slope of the Mj-Mw relation is 0.5 for Mj 5. We propose a fitting curve for the obtained relationship as Mw = (1/2)Mj + (1/2)(Mjγ + Mcorγ)1/γ+ c, where Mcor is a corner magnitude, γ determines the sharpness of the corner, and c denotes an offset. We obtained Mcor = 4.1, γ = 5.6, and c = -0.47 to fit the observation. The parameters are useful for characterizing the Mj-Mw relationship. This non-linear relationship affects the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Quantitative discussions on b-values are affected by the definition of magnitude to use.

  12. Conversion of Local and Surface-Wave Magnitudes to Moment Magnitude for Earthquakes in the Chinese Mainland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, X.; Gao, M.

    2017-12-01

    The magnitude of an earthquake is one of its basic parameters and is a measure of its scale. It plays a significant role in seismology and earthquake engineering research, particularly in the calculations of the seismic rate and b value in earthquake prediction and seismic hazard analysis. However, several current types of magnitudes used in seismology research, such as local magnitude (ML), surface wave magnitude (MS), and body-wave magnitude (MB), have a common limitation, which is the magnitude saturation phenomenon. Fortunately, the problem of magnitude saturation was solved by a formula for calculating the seismic moment magnitude (MW) based on the seismic moment, which describes the seismic source strength. Now the moment magnitude is very commonly used in seismology research. However, in China, the earthquake scale is primarily based on local and surface-wave magnitudes. In the present work, we studied the empirical relationships between moment magnitude (MW) and local magnitude (ML) as well as surface wave magnitude (MS) in the Chinese Mainland. The China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) ML catalog, China Seismograph Network (CSN) MS catalog, ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat), and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) are adopted to regress the relationships using the orthogonal regression method. The obtained relationships are as follows: MW=0.64+0.87MS; MW=1.16+0.75ML. Therefore, in China, if the moment magnitude of an earthquake is not reported by any agency in the world, we can use the equations mentioned above for converting ML to MW and MS to MW. These relationships are very important, because they will allow the China earthquake catalogs to be used more effectively for seismic hazard analysis, earthquake prediction, and other seismology research. We also computed the relationships of and (where Mo is the seismic moment) by linear regression using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor. The obtained relationships are as follows: logMo=18

  13. Earthquakes clustering based on the magnitude and the depths in Molluca Province

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wattimanela, H. J., E-mail: hwattimaela@yahoo.com [Pattimura University, Ambon (Indonesia); Institute of Technology Bandung, Bandung (Indonesia); Pasaribu, U. S.; Indratno, S. W.; Puspito, A. N. T. [Institute of Technology Bandung, Bandung (Indonesia)

    2015-12-22

    In this paper, we present a model to classify the earthquakes occurred in Molluca Province. We use K-Means clustering method to classify the earthquake based on the magnitude and the depth of the earthquake. The result can be used for disaster mitigation and for designing evacuation route in Molluca Province.

  14. Earthquakes clustering based on the magnitude and the depths in Molluca Province

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wattimanela, H. J.; Pasaribu, U. S.; Indratno, S. W.; Puspito, A. N. T.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we present a model to classify the earthquakes occurred in Molluca Province. We use K-Means clustering method to classify the earthquake based on the magnitude and the depth of the earthquake. The result can be used for disaster mitigation and for designing evacuation route in Molluca Province

  15. Quasi real-time estimation of the moment magnitude of large earthquake from static strain changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itaba, S.

    2016-12-01

    The 2011 Tohoku-Oki (off the Pacific coast of Tohoku) earthquake, of moment magnitude 9.0, was accompanied by large static strain changes (10-7), as measured by borehole strainmeters operated by the Geological Survey of Japan in the Tokai, Kii Peninsula, and Shikoku regions. A fault model for the earthquake on the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates, based on these borehole strainmeter data, yielded a moment magnitude of 8.7. On the other hand, based on the seismic wave, the prompt report of the magnitude which the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) announced just after earthquake occurrence was 7.9. Such geodetic moment magnitudes, derived from static strain changes, can be estimated almost as rapidly as determinations using seismic waves. I have to verify the validity of this method in some cases. In the case of this earthquake's largest aftershock, which occurred 29 minutes after the mainshock. The prompt report issued by JMA assigned this aftershock a magnitude of 7.3, whereas the moment magnitude derived from borehole strain data is 7.6, which is much closer to the actual moment magnitude of 7.7. In order to grasp the magnitude of a great earthquake earlier, several methods are now being suggested to reduce the earthquake disasters including tsunami. Our simple method of using static strain changes is one of the strong methods for rapid estimation of the magnitude of large earthquakes, and useful to improve the accuracy of Earthquake Early Warning.

  16. Scaling Relations of Local Magnitude versus Moment Magnitude for Sequences of Similar Earthquakes in Switzerland

    KAUST Repository

    Bethmann, F.; Deichmann, N.; Mai, Paul Martin

    2011-01-01

    Theoretical considerations and empirical regressions show that, in the magnitude range between 3 and 5, local magnitude, ML, and moment magnitude, Mw, scale 1:1. Previous studies suggest that for smaller magnitudes this 1:1 scaling breaks down

  17. Rapid estimation of the moment magnitude of large earthquake from static strain changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itaba, S.

    2014-12-01

    The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake, of moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0, occurred on March 11, 2011. Based on the seismic wave, the prompt report of the magnitude which the Japan Meteorological Agency announced just after earthquake occurrence was 7.9, and it was considerably smaller than an actual value. On the other hand, using nine borehole strainmeters of Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, we estimated a fault model with Mw 8.7 for the earthquake on the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates. This model can be estimated about seven minutes after the origin time, and five minute after wave arrival. In order to grasp the magnitude of a great earthquake earlier, several methods are now being suggested to reduce the earthquake disasters including tsunami (e.g., Ohta et al., 2012). Our simple method of using strain steps is one of the strong methods for rapid estimation of the magnitude of great earthquakes.

  18. Listening to the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Zhigang; Aiken, Chastity; Kilb, Debi; Shelly, David R.; Enescu, Bogdan

    2012-01-01

    The magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake on 11 March 2011 is the largest earthquake to date in Japan’s modern history and is ranked as the fourth largest earthquake in the world since 1900. This earthquake occurred within the northeast Japan subduction zone (Figure 1), where the Pacific plate is subducting beneath the Okhotsk plate at rate of ∼8–9 cm/yr (DeMets et al. 2010). This type of extremely large earthquake within a subduction zone is generally termed a “megathrust” earthquake. Strong shaking from this magnitude 9 earthquake engulfed the entire Japanese Islands, reaching a maximum acceleration ∼3 times that of gravity (3 g). Two days prior to the main event, a foreshock sequence occurred, including one earthquake of magnitude 7.2. Following the main event, numerous aftershocks occurred around the main slip region; the largest of these was magnitude 7.9. The entire foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks sequence was well recorded by thousands of sensitive seismometers and geodetic instruments across Japan, resulting in the best-recorded megathrust earthquake in history. This devastating earthquake resulted in significant damage and high death tolls caused primarily by the associated large tsunami. This tsunami reached heights of more than 30 m, and inundation propagated inland more than 5 km from the Pacific coast, which also caused a nuclear crisis that is still affecting people’s lives in certain regions of Japan.

  19. Seismic experience in power and industrial facilities as it relates to small magnitude earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swan, S.W.; Horstman, N.G.

    1987-01-01

    The data base on the performance of power and industrial facilities in small magnitude earthquakes (M = 4.0 - 5.5) is potentially very large. In California alone many earthquakes in this magnitude range occur every year, often near industrial areas. In 1986 for example, in northern California alone, there were 76 earthquakes between Richter magnitude 4.0 and 5.5. Experience has shown that the effects of small magnitude earthquakes are seldom significant to well-engineered facilities. (The term well-engineered is here defined to include most modern industrial installations, as well as power plants and substations.) Therefore detailed investigations of small magnitude earthquakes are normally not considered worthwhile. The purpose of this paper is to review the tendency toward seismic damage of equipment installations representative of nuclear power plant safety systems. Estimates are made of the thresholds of seismic damage to certain types of equipment in terms of conventional means of measuring the damage potential of an earthquake. The objective is to define thresholds of damage that can be correlated with Richter magnitude. In this manner an earthquake magnitude might be chosen below which damage to nuclear plant safety systems is not considered credible

  20. Determination of Love- and Rayleigh-Wave Magnitudes for Earthquakes and Explosions and Other Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-30

    09-C-0012 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 62601F 6. AUTHOR(S) Jessie L. Bonner, Anastasia Stroujkova, Dale Anderson, Jonathan...AND RAYLEIGH-WAVE MAGNITUDES FOR EARTHQUAKES AND EXPLOSIONS Jessie L. Bonner, Anastasia Stroujkova, and Dale Anderson INTRODUCTION Since...MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION: APPLICATION TO MIDDLE EAST EARTHQUAKE DATA Anastasia Stroujkova and Jessie Bonner Weston Geophysical Corporation

  1. Maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude of structures affecting the Ujung Lemahabang site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerjodibroto, M.

    1997-01-01

    This report analyse the geological structures in/around Muria Peninsula that might originating potential earthquake hazard toward the selected site for NPP, Ujung Lemahabang (ULA). Analysis was focused on the Lasem fault and AF-1/AF-4 offshore faults that are considered as the determinant structures affecting the seismicity of ULA (Nira, 1979, Newjec, 1994). Methods for estimating the MCE of the structures include maximum historical earthquake, and relationship between the length of the fault and the magnitude of earthquake originating from the known structure (Tocher, Iida, Matsuda, Wells and Coopersmith). The MCE magnitude estimating by these method for earthquake originating along the Lasem and AF-1/AF-4 faults vary from 2,1M to 7,0M. Comparison between the result of historical data and fault-magnitude relationship, however, suggest a MCE magnitude of Ms=7,0M for both fault zones. (author)

  2. Maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude of structures affecting the Ujung Lemahabang site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerjodibroto, M [National Atomic Energy Agency, Jakarta (Indonesia)

    1997-03-01

    This report analyse the geological structures in/around Muria Peninsula that might originating potential earthquake hazard toward the selected site for NPP, Ujung Lemahabang (ULA). Analysis was focused on the Lasem fault and AF-1/AF-4 offshore faults that are considered as the determinant structures affecting the seismicity of ULA (Nira, 1979, Newjec, 1994). Methods for estimating the MCE of the structures include maximum historical earthquake, and relationship between the length of the fault and the magnitude of earthquake originating from the known structure (Tocher, Iida, Matsuda, Wells and Coopersmith). The MCE magnitude estimating by these method for earthquake originating along the Lasem and AF-1/AF-4 faults vary from 2,1M to 7,0M. Comparison between the result of historical data and fault-magnitude relationship, however, suggest a MCE magnitude of Ms=7,0M for both fault zones. (author)

  3. Spatiotemporal evolution of the completeness magnitude of the Icelandic earthquake catalogue from 1991 to 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panzera, Francesco; Mignan, Arnaud; Vogfjörð, Kristin S.

    2017-07-01

    In 1991, a digital seismic monitoring network was installed in Iceland with a digital seismic system and automatic operation. After 20 years of operation, we explore for the first time its nationwide performance by analysing the spatiotemporal variations of the completeness magnitude. We use the Bayesian magnitude of completeness (BMC) method that combines local completeness magnitude observations with prior information based on the density of seismic stations. Additionally, we test the impact of earthquake location uncertainties on the BMC results, by filtering the catalogue using a multivariate analysis that identifies outliers in the hypocentre error distribution. We find that the entire North-to-South active rift zone shows a relatively low magnitude of completeness Mc in the range 0.5-1.0, highlighting the ability of the Icelandic network to detect small earthquakes. This work also demonstrates the influence of earthquake location uncertainties on the spatiotemporal magnitude of completeness analysis.

  4. Analyses of surface motions caused by the magnitude 9.0 2004 Sumatra earthquake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Gudmundsson, Ó.

    The Sumatra, Indonesia, earthquake on December 26th was one of the most devastating earthquakes in history. With a magnitude of Mw = 9.0 it is the forth largest earthquake recorded since 1900. It occurred about one hundred kilometers off the west coast of northern Sumatra, where the relatively thin...... of years. The result was a devastating tsunami hitting coastlines across the Indian Ocean killing more than 225,000 people in Sri Lanka, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. An earthquake of this magnitude is expected to involve a displacement on the fault on the order of 10 meters. But, what...... was the actual amplitude of the surface motions that triggered the tsunami? This can be constrained using the amplitudes of elastic waves radiated from the earthquake, or by direct measurements of deformation. Here we present estimates of the deformation based on continuous Global Positioning System (GPS...

  5. Frequency sensitive moment tensor inversion for light to moderate magnitude earthquakes in eastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barth, A.; Wenzel, F.; Giardini, D.

    2007-08-01

    We provide a procedure for the routine determination of moment tensors from earthquakes with magnitudes as low as M W 4.4 using data recorded by only a few permanent seismic stations at regional to teleseismic distances. Waveforms are inverted for automatically determined frequency pass-bands that depend on source-receiver locations as well as the earthquake magnitude. Inversion results are stable against small variations in the frequency band and provide low data variances, i.e., a good fit between observed and modelled waveform traces. The total frequency band used for our procedure ranges from 10 mHz to 29 mHz (periods of 35 s to 100 s). This enables us to determine focal mechanisms for earthquakes that were not derived previously by routine procedures of CMT or other agencies. As a case study, we determine focal mechanism solutions of 38 light to moderate magnitude earthquakes in eastern Africa between 1995 and 2002.

  6. Regional relationships among earthquake magnitude scales. Seismic safety margins research program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, D.H.; Bernreuter, D.L.

    1980-09-01

    The seismic body-wave magnitude m b of an earthquake is strongly affected by regional variations in the Q structure, composition, and physical state within the earth. Therefore, because of differences in attenuation of P-waves between the western and eastern United States, a problem arises when comparing m b 's for the two regions. A regional m b magnitude bias exists which, depending on where the earthquake occurs and where the P-waves are recorded, can lead to magnitude errors as large as one-third unit. There is also a significant difference between m b and M L values for earthquakes in the western United States. An empirical link between the m b of an eastern U.S. earthquake and the M L of an equivalent western earthquake is given y M L = 0.57 + 0.92(m b ) East . This result is important when comparing ground motion between the two regions and for choosing a set of real western U.S. earthquake records to represent eastern earthquakes. (author)

  7. Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Last, Mark; Rabinowitz, Nitzan; Leonard, Gideon

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006-2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.

  8. Listening to data from the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Z.; Aiken, C.; Kilb, D. L.; Shelly, D. R.; Enescu, B.

    2011-12-01

    It is important for seismologists to effectively convey information about catastrophic earthquakes, such as the magnitude 9.0 earthquake in Tohoku-Oki, Japan, to general audience who may not necessarily be well-versed in the language of earthquake seismology. Given recent technological advances, previous approaches of using "snapshot" static images to represent earthquake data is now becoming obsolete, and the favored venue to explain complex wave propagation inside the solid earth and interactions among earthquakes is now visualizations that include auditory information. Here, we convert seismic data into visualizations that include sounds, the latter being a term known as 'audification', or continuous 'sonification'. By combining seismic auditory and visual information, static "snapshots" of earthquake data come to life, allowing pitch and amplitude changes to be heard in sync with viewed frequency changes in the seismograms and associated spectragrams. In addition, these visual and auditory media allow the viewer to relate earthquake generated seismic signals to familiar sounds such as thunder, popcorn popping, rattlesnakes, firecrackers, etc. We present a free software package that uses simple MATLAB tools and Apple Inc's QuickTime Pro to automatically convert seismic data into auditory movies. We focus on examples of seismic data from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. These examples range from near-field strong motion recordings that demonstrate the complex source process of the mainshock and early aftershocks, to far-field broadband recordings that capture remotely triggered deep tremor and shallow earthquakes. We envision audification of seismic data, which is geared toward a broad range of audiences, will be increasingly used to convey information about notable earthquakes and research frontiers in earthquake seismology (tremor, dynamic triggering, etc). Our overarching goal is that sharing our new visualization tool will foster an interest in seismology, not

  9. Locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes in the Sierra of Ecuador (1587-1996)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauval, Céline; Yepes, Hugo; Bakun, William H.; Egred, José; Alvarado, Alexandra; Singaucho, Juan-Carlos

    2010-06-01

    The whole territory of Ecuador is exposed to seismic hazard. Great earthquakes can occur in the subduction zone (e.g. Esmeraldas, 1906, Mw 8.8), whereas lower magnitude but shallower and potentially more destructive earthquakes can occur in the highlands. This study focuses on the historical crustal earthquakes of the Andean Cordillera. Several large cities are located in the Interandean Valley, among them Quito, the capital (~2.5 millions inhabitants). A total population of ~6 millions inhabitants currently live in the highlands, raising the seismic risk. At present, precise instrumental data for the Ecuadorian territory is not available for periods earlier than 1990 (beginning date of the revised instrumental Ecuadorian seismic catalogue); therefore historical data are of utmost importance for assessing seismic hazard. In this study, the Bakun & Wentworth method is applied in order to determine magnitudes, locations, and associated uncertainties for historical earthquakes of the Sierra over the period 1587-1976. An intensity-magnitude equation is derived from the four most reliable instrumental earthquakes (Mw between 5.3 and 7.1). Intensity data available per historical earthquake vary between 10 (Quito, 1587, Intensity >=VI) and 117 (Riobamba, 1797, Intensity >=III). The bootstrap resampling technique is coupled to the B&W method for deriving geographical confidence contours for the intensity centre depending on the data set of each earthquake, as well as confidence intervals for the magnitude. The extension of the area delineating the intensity centre location at the 67 per cent confidence level (+/-1σ) depends on the amount of intensity data, on their internal coherence, on the number of intensity degrees available, and on their spatial distribution. Special attention is dedicated to the few earthquakes described by intensities reaching IX, X and XI degrees. Twenty-five events are studied, and nineteen new epicentral locations are obtained, yielding

  10. Locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes in the Sierra of Ecuador (1587–1996)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauval, Celine; Yepes, Hugo; Bakun, William H.; Egred, Jose; Alvarado, Alexandra; Singaucho, Juan-Carlos

    2010-01-01

    The whole territory of Ecuador is exposed to seismic hazard. Great earthquakes can occur in the subduction zone (e.g. Esmeraldas, 1906, Mw8.8), whereas lower magnitude but shallower and potentially more destructive earthquakes can occur in the highlands. This study focuses on the historical crustal earthquakes of the Andean Cordillera. Several large cities are located in the Interandean Valley, among them Quito, the capital (∼2.5 millions inhabitants). A total population of ∼6 millions inhabitants currently live in the highlands, raising the seismic risk. At present, precise instrumental data for the Ecuadorian territory is not available for periods earlier than 1990 (beginning date of the revised instrumental Ecuadorian seismic catalogue); therefore historical data are of utmost importance for assessing seismic hazard. In this study, the Bakun & Wentworth method is applied in order to determine magnitudes, locations, and associated uncertainties for historical earthquakes of the Sierra over the period 1587–1976. An intensity-magnitude equation is derived from the four most reliable instrumental earthquakes (Mwbetween 5.3 and 7.1). Intensity data available per historical earthquake vary between 10 (Quito, 1587, Intensity ≥VI) and 117 (Riobamba, 1797, Intensity ≥III). The bootstrap resampling technique is coupled to the B&W method for deriving geographical confidence contours for the intensity centre depending on the data set of each earthquake, as well as confidence intervals for the magnitude. The extension of the area delineating the intensity centre location at the 67 per cent confidence level (±1σ) depends on the amount of intensity data, on their internal coherence, on the number of intensity degrees available, and on their spatial distribution. Special attention is dedicated to the few earthquakes described by intensities reaching IX, X and XI degrees. Twenty-five events are studied, and nineteen new epicentral locations are obtained, yielding

  11. A General Method to Estimate Earthquake Moment and Magnitude using Regional Phase Amplitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasyanos, M E

    2009-11-19

    This paper presents a general method of estimating earthquake magnitude using regional phase amplitudes, called regional M{sub o} or regional M{sub w}. Conceptually, this method uses an earthquake source model along with an attenuation model and geometrical spreading which accounts for the propagation to utilize regional phase amplitudes of any phase and frequency. Amplitudes are corrected to yield a source term from which one can estimate the seismic moment. Moment magnitudes can then be reliably determined with sets of observed phase amplitudes rather than predetermined ones, and afterwards averaged to robustly determine this parameter. We first examine in detail several events to demonstrate the methodology. We then look at various ensembles of phases and frequencies, and compare results to existing regional methods. We find regional M{sub o} to be a stable estimator of earthquake size that has several advantages over other methods. Because of its versatility, it is applicable to many more events, particularly smaller events. We make moment estimates for earthquakes ranging from magnitude 2 to as large as 7. Even with diverse input amplitude sources, we find magnitude estimates to be more robust than typical magnitudes and existing regional methods and might be tuned further to improve upon them. The method yields a more meaningful quantity of seismic moment, which can be recast as M{sub w}. Lastly, it is applied here to the Middle East region using an existing calibration model, but it would be easy to transport to any region with suitable attenuation calibration.

  12. Application of the extreme value approaches to the apparent magnitude distribution of the earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, S.; Mulargia, F.

    1985-03-01

    The apparent magnitude of an earthquake y is defined as the observed magnitude value and differs from the true magnitude m because of the experimental noise n. If f(m) is the density distribution of the magnitude m, and if g(n) is the density distribution of the error n, then the density distribution of y is simply computed by convolving f and g, i.e. h(y)=f*g. If the distinction between y and m is not realized, any statistical analysis based on the frequency-magnitude relation of the earthquake is bound to produce questionable results. In this paper we investigate the impact of the apparent magnitude idea on the statistical methods that study the earthquake distribution by taking into account only the largest (or extremal) earthquakes. We use two approaches: the Gumbel method based on Gumbel theory ( Gumbel, 1958), and the Poisson method introduced by Epstein and Lomnitz (1966). Both methods are concerned with the asymptotic properties of the magnitude distributions. Therefore, we study and compare the asymptotic behaviour of the distributions h(y) and f(m) under suitable hypotheses on the nature of the experimental noise. We investigate in detail two dinstinct cases: first, the two-side limited symmetrical noise, i.e. the noise that is bound to assume values inside a limited region, and second, the normal noise, i.e. the noise that is distributed according to a normal symmetric distribution. We further show that disregarding the noise generally leads to biased results and that, in the framework of the apparent magnitude, the Poisson approach preserves its usefulness, while the Gumbel method gives rise to a curious paradox.

  13. Effect of slip-area scaling on the earthquake frequency-magnitude relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senatorski, Piotr

    2017-06-01

    The earthquake frequency-magnitude relationship is considered in the maximum entropy principle (MEP) perspective. The MEP suggests sampling with constraints as a simple stochastic model of seismicity. The model is based on the von Neumann's acceptance-rejection method, with b-value as the parameter that breaks symmetry between small and large earthquakes. The Gutenberg-Richter law's b-value forms a link between earthquake statistics and physics. Dependence between b-value and the rupture area vs. slip scaling exponent is derived. The relationship enables us to explain observed ranges of b-values for different types of earthquakes. Specifically, different b-value ranges for tectonic and induced, hydraulic fracturing seismicity is explained in terms of their different triggering mechanisms: by the applied stress increase and fault strength reduction, respectively.

  14. Characteristics of Gyeongju earthquake, moment magnitude 5.5 and relative relocations of aftershocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, ChangSoo; Son, Minkyung

    2017-04-01

    There is low seismicity in the korea peninsula. According historical record in the historic book, There were several strong earthquake in the korea peninsula. Especially in Gyeongju of capital city of the Silla dynasty, few strong earthquakes caused the fatalities of several hundreds people 1,300 years ago and damaged the houses and make the wall of castles collapsed. Moderate strong earthquake of moment magnitude 5.5 hit the city in September 12, 2016. Over 1000 aftershocks were detected. The numbers of occurrences of aftershock over time follows omori's law well. The distribution of relative locations of 561 events using clustering aftershocks by cross-correlation between P and S waveform of the events showed the strike NNE 25 30 o and dip 68 74o of fault plane to cause the earthquake matched with the fault plane solution of moment tensor inversion well. The depth of range of the events is from 11km to 16km. The width of distribution of event locations is about 5km length. The direction of maximum horizontal stress by inversion of stress for the moment solutions of main event and large aftershocks is similar to the known maximum horizontal stress direction of the korea peninsula. The relation curves between moment magnitude and local magnitude of aftershocks shows that the moment magnitude increases slightly more for events of size less than 2.0

  15. Magnitude and Surface Rupture Length of Prehistoric Upper Crustal Earthquakes in the Puget Lowland, Washington State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherrod, B. L.; Styron, R. H.

    2016-12-01

    Paleoseismic studies documented prehistoric earthquakes after the last glaciation ended 15 ka on 13 upper-crustal fault zones in the Cascadia fore arc. These fault zones are a consequence of north-directed fore arc block migration manifesting as a series of bedrock uplifts and intervening structural basins in the southern Salish Sea lowland between Vancouver, B.C. to the north and Olympia, WA to the south, and bounded on the east and west by the Cascade Mountains and Olympic Mountains, respectively. Our dataset uses published information and includes 27 earthquakes tabulated from observations of postglacial deformation at 63 sites. Stratigraphic offsets along faults consist of two types of measurements: 1) vertical separation of strata along faults observed in fault scarp excavations, and 2) estimates from coastal uplift and subsidence. We used probabilistic methods to estimate past rupture magnitudes and surface rupture length (SRL), applying empirical observations from modern earthquakes and point measurements from paleoseismic sites (Biasi and Weldon, 2006). Estimates of paleoearthquake magnitude ranged between M 6.5 and M 7.5. SRL estimates varied between 20 and 90 km. Paleoearthquakes on the Seattle fault zone and Saddle Mountain West fault about 1100 years ago were outliers in our analysis. Large offsets observed for these two earthquakes implies a M 7.8 and 200 km SRL, given the average observed ratio of slip/SRL in modern earthquakes. The actual mapped traces of these faults are less than 200km, implying these earthquakes had an unusually high static stress drop or, in the case of the Seattle fault, splay faults may have accentuated uplift in the hanging wall. Refined calculations incorporating fault area may change these magnitude and SRL estimates. Biasi, G.P., and Weldon, R.J., 2006, Estimating Surface Rupture Length and Magnitude of Paleoearthquakes from Point Measurements of Rupture Displacement: B. Seismol. Soc. Am., 96, 1612-1623.

  16. Earthquake of Saint-Hilaire-de-Voust (Vendee) from February 12, 2018 (3h08 TU), Magnitude = 4,8 (Local Magnitude - CEA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cushing, Edward; Provost, Ludmila

    2018-01-01

    A 3.9-4.0 magnitude superficial earthquake occurred at Saint-Hilaire-de-Voust (Vendee, France) on February 12, 2018 (3h08 TU). This brief note reviews, first, the historical and present day seismicity of the Armorican region, and then analyses the earthquake impact on the closest nuclear facilities (Pouzauges industrial irradiation facility, Chinon and Civaux NPPs)

  17. Global correlations between maximum magnitudes of subduction zone interface thrust earthquakes and physical parameters of subduction zones

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schellart, W. P.; Rawlinson, N.

    2013-01-01

    The maximum earthquake magnitude recorded for subduction zone plate boundaries varies considerably on Earth, with some subduction zone segments producing giant subduction zone thrust earthquakes (e.g. Chile, Alaska, Sumatra-Andaman, Japan) and others producing relatively small earthquakes (e.g.

  18. Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude from the arrival time of the peak high‐frequency amplitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, Shunta; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Ellsworth, William L.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a simple approach to measure earthquake magnitude M using the time difference (Top) between the body‐wave onset and the arrival time of the peak high‐frequency amplitude in an accelerogram. Measured in this manner, we find that Mw is proportional to 2logTop for earthquakes 5≤Mw≤7, which is the theoretical proportionality if Top is proportional to source dimension and stress drop is scale invariant. Using high‐frequency (>2  Hz) data, the root mean square (rms) residual between Mw and MTop(M estimated from Top) is approximately 0.5 magnitude units. The rms residuals of the high‐frequency data in passbands between 2 and 16 Hz are uniformly smaller than those obtained from the lower‐frequency data. Top depends weakly on epicentral distance, and this dependence can be ignored for distances earthquake produces a final magnitude estimate of M 9.0 at 120 s after the origin time. We conclude that Top of high‐frequency (>2  Hz) accelerograms has value in the context of earthquake early warning for extremely large events.

  19. Scaling relation between earthquake magnitude and the departure time from P wave similar growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, Shunta; Ellsworth, William L.

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a new scaling relation between earthquake magnitude (M) and a characteristic of initial P wave displacement. By examining Japanese K-NET data averaged in bins partitioned by Mw and hypocentral distance, we demonstrate that the P wave displacement briefly displays similar growth at the onset of rupture and that the departure time (Tdp), which is defined as the time of departure from similarity of the absolute displacement after applying a band-pass filter, correlates with the final M in a range of 4.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 7. The scaling relation between Mw and Tdp implies that useful information on the final M can be derived while the event is still in progress because Tdp occurs before the completion of rupture. We conclude that the scaling relation is important not only for earthquake early warning but also for the source physics of earthquakes.

  20. Earthquake recurrence and magnitude and seismic deformation of the northwestern Okhotsk plate, northeast Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindle, D.; Mackey, K.

    2011-02-01

    Recorded seismicity from the northwestern Okhotsk plate, northeast Asia, is currently insufficient to account for the predicted slip rates along its boundaries due to plate tectonics. However, the magnitude-frequency relationship for earthquakes from the region suggests that larger earthquakes are possible in the future and that events of ˜Mw 7.5 which should occur every ˜100-350 years would account for almost all the slip of the plate along its boundaries due to Eurasia-North America convergence. We use models for seismic slip distribution along the bounding faults of Okhotsk to conclude that relatively little aseismic strain release is occurring and that larger future earthquakes are likely in the region. Our models broadly support the idea of a single Okhotsk plate, with the large majority of tectonic strain released along its boundaries.

  1. Continuous estimates on the earthquake early warning magnitude by use of the near-field acceleration records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Zhang, Hongcai

    2013-10-01

    In this article, the seismic records of Japan's Kik-net are selected to measure the acceleration, displacement, and effective peak acceleration of each seismic record within a certain time after P wave, then a continuous estimation is given on earthquake early warning magnitude through statistical analysis method, and Wenchuan earthquake record is utilized to check the method. The results show that the reliability of earthquake early warning magnitude continuously increases with the increase of the seismic information, the biggest residual happens if the acceleration is adopted to fit earthquake magnitude, which may be caused by rich high-frequency components and large dispersion of peak value in acceleration record, the influence caused by the high-frequency components can be effectively reduced if the effective peak acceleration and peak displacement is adopted, it is estimated that the dispersion of earthquake magnitude obviously reduces, but it is easy for peak displacement to be affected by long-period drifting. In various components, the residual enlargement phenomenon at vertical direction is almost unobvious, thus it is recommended in this article that the effective peak acceleration at vertical direction is preferred to estimate earthquake early warning magnitude. Through adopting Wenchuan strong earthquake record to check the method mentioned in this article, it is found that this method can be used to quickly, stably, and accurately estimate the early warning magnitude of this earthquake, which shows that this method is completely applicable for earthquake early warning.

  2. A moment-tensor catalog for intermediate magnitude earthquakes in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Cardozo, Félix; Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala; Martínez-Peláez, Liliana; Franco, Sara; Iglesias Mendoza, Arturo

    2016-04-01

    Located among five tectonic plates, Mexico is one of the world's most seismically active regions. The earthquake focal mechanisms provide important information on the active tectonics. A widespread technique for estimating the earthquake magnitud and focal mechanism is the inversion for the moment tensor, obtained by minimizing a misfit function that estimates the difference between synthetic and observed seismograms. An important element in the estimation of the moment tensor is an appropriate velocity model, which allows for the calculation of accurate Green's Functions so that the differences between observed and synthetics seismograms are due to the source of the earthquake rather than the velocity model. However, calculating accurate synthetic seismograms gets progressively more difficult as the magnitude of the earthquakes decreases. Large earthquakes (M>5.0) excite waves of longer periods that interact weakly with lateral heterogeneities in the crust. For these events, using 1D velocity models to compute Greens functions works well and they are well characterized by seismic moment tensors reported in global catalogs (eg. USGS fast moment tensor solutions and GCMT). The opposite occurs for small and intermediate sized events, where the relatively shorter periods excited interact strongly with lateral heterogeneities in the crust and upper mantle. To accurately model the Green's functions for the smaller events in a large heterogeneous area, requires 3D or regionalized 1D models. To obtain a rapid estimate of earthquake magnitude, the National Seismological Survey in Mexico (Servicio Sismológico Nacional, SSN) automatically calculates seismic moment tensors for events in the Mexican Territory (Franco et al., 2002; Nolasco-Carteño, 2006). However, for intermediate-magnitude and small earthquakes the signal-to-noise ratio could is low for many of the seismic stations, and without careful selection and filtering of the data, obtaining a stable focal mechanism

  3. Earthquake magnitudes based on Coda-Derived Moment-Rate Spectra in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, F.; Gung, Y.; Yoo, S.; Rhie, J.

    2010-12-01

    We use the coda-derived moment-rate spectra method to estimate earthquake magnitudes in Taiwan. We extract coda-envelope at several frequency bands ranging from 0.03 to 8.0 hz using the horizontal component of broad-band waveform data recorded by BATS (Broadband Array in Taiwan for Siemology). We derived synthetic coda-envelope using various empirical frequency-dependent corrections mainly based upon Mayeda et al. (2003), which may account for all propagation, site and S-to-coda transfer function effects. After proper calibration and distance-corrections, the dimensionless coda amplitudes are used to determine the earthquake magnitude and source spectra. Selected events with magnitudes between 4 and 6 that occurred in 2009 are used to derive the empirical corrections and calibrations. We present detailed results of each procedure. Moreover, with the empirical corrections, we apply this measurement to an expanded data set and compare the derived coda-magnitude with other magnitude scales derived from conventional methods.

  4. Reevaluation of the macroseismic effects of the 1887 Sonora, Mexico earthquake and its magnitude estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suárez, Gerardo; Hough, Susan E.

    2008-01-01

    The Sonora, Mexico, earthquake of 3 May 1887 occurred a few years before the start of the instrumental era in seismology. We revisit all available accounts of the earthquake and assign Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI), interpreting and analyzing macroseismic information using the best available modern methods. We find that earlier intensity assignments for this important earthquake were unjustifiably high in many cases. High intensity values were assigned based on accounts of rock falls, soil failure or changes in the water table, which are now known to be very poor indicators of shaking severity and intensity. Nonetheless, reliable accounts reveal that light damage (intensity VI) occurred at distances of up to ~200 km in both Mexico and the United States. The resulting set of 98 reevaluated intensity values is used to draw an isoseismal map of this event. Using the attenuation relation proposed by Bakun (2006b), we estimate an optimal moment magnitude of Mw7.6. Assuming this magnitude is correct, a fact supported independently by documented rupture parameters assuming standard scaling relations, our results support the conclusion that northern Sonora as well as the Basin and Range province are characterized by lower attenuation of intensities than California. However, this appears to be at odds with recent results that Lg attenuation in the Basin and Range province is comparable to that in California.

  5. ON STRUCTURED AND DIFFUSE SEISMICITY, STIFFNESS OF EARTHQUAKE FOCI, AND NONLINEARITY OF MAGNITUDE RECURRENCE GRAPHS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgeny G. Bugaev

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Geological, geophysical and seismogeological studies are now conducted in a more detail and thus provide for determining seismic sources with higher accuracy, from the first meters to first dozens of meters [Waldhauser, Schaff, 2008]. It is now possible to consider uncertainty ellipses of earthquake hypocenters, that are recorded in the updated Earthquake Catalogue, as surfaces of earthquake focus generators. In our article, it is accepted that a maximum horizontal size of an uncertainty ellipse corresponds to an area of a focus generator, and seismic events are thus classified into two groups, earthquakes with nonstiff and stiff foci. Criteria of such a classification are two limits of elastic strain and brittle strain in case of uniaxial (3⋅10–5 or omnidirectional (10–6 compression. The criteria are established from results of analyses of parameters of seismic dislocations and earthquake foci with regard to studies of surface parameters and deformation parameters of fault zones. It is recommendable that the uniaxial compression criterion shall be applied to zones of interaction between tectonic plates, and the unilateral compression criterion shall be applied to low active (interplate areas. Sample cases demonstrate the use of data sets on nonstiff and stiff foci for separate evaluation of magnitude reoccurrence curves, analyses of structured and dissipated seismicity, review of the physical nature of nonlinearity of recurrence curves and conditions of preparation of strong earthquakes. Changes of parameters of the recurrence curves with changes of data collection square areas are considered. Reviewed are changes of parameters of the recurrence curves during preparation for the Japan major earthquake of 11 March 2011 prior to and after the major shock. It is emphasized that it is important to conduct even more detailed geological and geophysical studies and to improve precision and sensitivity of local seismological monitoring networks

  6. Rapid estimation of the moment magnitude of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake from coseismic strain steps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itaba, S.; Matsumoto, N.; Kitagawa, Y.; Koizumi, N.

    2012-12-01

    The 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake, of moment magnitude (Mw) 9.0, occurred at 14:46 Japan Standard Time (JST) on March 11, 2011. The coseismic strain steps caused by the fault slip of this earthquake were observed in the Tokai, Kii Peninsula and Shikoku by the borehole strainmeters which were carefully set by Geological Survey of Japan, AIST. Using these strain steps, we estimated a fault model for the earthquake on the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates. Our model, which is estimated only from several minutes' strain data, is largely consistent with the final fault models estimated from GPS and seismic wave data. The moment magnitude can be estimated about 6 minutes after the origin time, and 4 minutes after wave arrival. According to the fault model, the moment magnitude of the earthquake is 8.7. On the other hand, based on the seismic wave, the prompt report of the magnitude which the Japan Meteorological Agency announced just after earthquake occurrence was 7.9. Generally coseismic strain steps are considered to be less reliable than seismic waves and GPS data. However our results show that the coseismic strain steps observed by the borehole strainmeters, which were carefully set and monitored, can be relied enough to decide the earthquake magnitude precisely and rapidly. In order to grasp the magnitude of a great earthquake earlier, several methods are now being suggested to reduce the earthquake disasters including tsunami. Our simple method of using strain steps is one of the strong methods for rapid estimation of the magnitude of great earthquakes.

  7. A local earthquake coda magnitude and its relation to duration, moment M sub O, and local Richter magnitude M sub L

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suteau, A. M.; Whitcomb, J. H.

    1977-01-01

    A relationship was found between the seismic moment, M sub O, of shallow local earthquakes and the total duration of the signal, t, in seconds, measured from the earthquakes origin time, assuming that the end of the coda is composed of backscattering surface waves due to lateral heterogenity in the shallow crust following Aki. Using the linear relationship between the logarithm of M sub O and the local Richter magnitude M sub L, a relationship between M sub L and t, was found. This relationship was used to calculate a coda magnitude M sub C which was compared to M sub L for Southern California earthquakes which occurred during the period from 1972 to 1975.

  8. An Equivalent Moment Magnitude Earthquake Catalogue for Western Turkey and its Quantitative Properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leptokaropoulos, Konstantinos; Vasilios, Karakostas; Eleftheria, Papadimitriou; Aggeliki, Adamaki; Onur, Tan; Zumer, Pabuçcu

    2013-04-01

    Earthquake catalogues consist a basic product of seismology, resulting from complex procedures and suffering from natural and man-made errors. The accumulation of these problems over space and time lead to inhomogeneous catalogues which in turn lead to significant uncertainties in many kinds of analyses, such as seismicity rate evaluation and seismic hazard assessment. A major source of catalogue inhomogeneity is the variety of magnitude scales (i.e. Mw, mb, MS, ML, Md), reported from different institutions and sources. Therefore an effort is made in this study to compile a catalogue as homogenous as possible regarding the magnitude scale for the region of Western Turkey (26oE - 32oE longitude, 35oN - 43oN latitude), one of the most rapidly deforming regions worldwide with intense seismic activity, complex fault systems and frequent strong earthquakes. For this purpose we established new relationships to transform as many as possible available magnitudes into equivalent moment magnitude scale, M*w. These relations yielded by the application of the General Orthogonal Regression method and the statistical significance of the results was quantified. The final equivalent moment magnitude was evaluated by taking into consideration all the available magnitudes for which a relation was obtained and also a weight inversely proportional to their standard deviation. Once the catalogue was compiled the magnitude of completeness, Mc, was investigated in both space and time regime. The b-values and their accuracy were also calculated by the maximum likelihood estimate. The spatial and temporal constraints were selected in respect to seismicity recording level, since the state and evolution of the local and regional seismic networks are unknown. We modified and applied the Goodness of Fit test of Wiemer and Wyss (2000) in order to be more effective in datasets that are characterized by smaller sample size and higher Mcthresholds. The compiled catalogue and the Mcevaluation

  9. Magnitudes and Moment-Duration Scaling of Low-Frequency Earthquakes Beneath Southern Vancouver Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostock, M. G.; Thomas, A.; Rubin, A. M.; Savard, G.; Chuang, L. Y.

    2015-12-01

    We employ 130 low-frequency-earthquake (LFE) templates representing tremor sources on the plate boundary below southern Vancouver Island to examine LFE magnitudes. Each template is assembled from 100's to 1000's of individual LFEs, representing over 300,000 independent detections from major episodic-tremor-and- slip (ETS) events between 2003 and 2013. Template displacement waveforms for direct P- and S-waves at near epicentral distances are remarkably simple at many stations, approaching the zero-phase, single pulse expected for a point dislocation source in a homogeneous medium. High spatio-temporal precision of template match-filtered detections facilitates precise alignment of individual LFE detections and analysis of waveforms. Upon correction for 1-D geometrical spreading, attenuation, free-surface magnification and radiation pattern, we solve a large, sparse linear system for 3-D path corrections and LFE magnitudes for all detections corresponding to a single ETS template. The spatio-temporal distribution of magnitudes indicates that typically half the total moment release occurs within the first 12-24 hours of LFE activity during an ETS episode when tidal sensitity is low. The remainder is released in bursts over several days, particularly as spatially extensive RTRs, during which tidal sensitivity is high. RTR's are characterized by large magnitude LFEs, and are most strongly expressed in the updip portions of the ETS transition zone and less organized at downdip levels. LFE magnitude-frequency relations are better described by power-law than exponential distributions although they exhibit very high b-values ≥ 6. We examine LFE moment-duration scaling by generating templates using detections for limiting magnitude ranges MW<1.5, MW≥ 2.0. LFE duration displays a weaker dependence upon moment than expected for self-similarity, suggesting that LFE asperities are limited in dimension and that moment variation is dominated by slip. This behaviour implies

  10. Holocene earthquakes of magnitude 7 during westward escape of the Olympic Mountains, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Alan R.; Personius, Stephen; Wells, Ray; Schermer, Elizabeth R.; Bradley, Lee-Ann; Buck, Jason; Reitman, Nadine G.

    2017-01-01

    The Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault, previously mapped in Miocene bedrock as an oblique thrust on the north flank of the Olympic Mountains, poses a significant earthquake hazard. Mapping using 2015 light detection and ranging (lidar) confirms 2004 lidar mapping of postglacial (≥14  km along a splay fault, the Sadie Creek fault, west of Lake Crescent. Scarp morphology suggests repeated earthquake ruptures along the eastern section of the Lake Creek–Boundary Creek fault and the Sadie Creek fault since ∼13  ka">∼13  ka. Right‐lateral (∼11–28  m">∼11–28  m) and vertical (1–2 m) cumulative fault offsets suggest slip rates of ∼1–2  mm/yr">∼1–2  mm/yr Stratigraphic and age‐model data from five trenches perpendicular to scarps at four sites on the eastern section of the fault show evidence of 3–5 surface‐rupturing earthquakes. Near‐vertical fault dips and upward‐branching fault patterns in trenches, abrupt changes in the thickness of stratigraphic units across faults, and variations in vertical displacement of successive stratigraphic units along fault traces also suggest a large lateral component of slip. Age models suggest two earthquakes date from 1.3±0.8">1.3±0.8 and 2.9±0.6  ka">2.9±0.6  ka; evidence and ages for 2–3 earlier earthquakes are less certain. Assuming 3–5 postglacial earthquakes, lateral and vertical cumulative fault offsets yield average slip per earthquake of ∼4.6  m">∼4.6  m, a lateral‐to‐vertical slip ratio of ∼10:1">∼10:1, and a recurrence interval of 3.5±1.0  ka">3.5±1.0  ka. Empirical relations yield moment magnitude estimates of M 7.2–7.5 (slip per earthquake) and 7.1–7.3 (56 km maximum rupture length). An apparent left‐lateral Miocene to right‐lateral Holocene slip reversal on the faults is probably related to overprinting of east‐directed, accretion‐dominated deformation in the eastern core of the Olympic

  11. Earthquake Magnitude Relationships for the Saint Peter and Saint Paul Archipelago, Equatorial Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Melo, Guilherme W. S.; do Nascimento, Aderson F.

    2018-03-01

    We have investigated several relationships between ML, M(NEIC) and Mw for the earthquakes locally recorded in the Saint Peter and Saint Paul Archipelago (SPSPA), Equatorial Atlantic. Because we only have one station in the area, we could not derive attenuation relations for events recorded at different distances at different stations. Our approach was then to compare our ML estimates with magnitudes reported by NEIC. This approach produced acceptable results particularly for epicentral distance smaller than 100 km. For distances greater that 100 km, there is a systematic increase in the residuals probable due to the lack of station correction and our inability to accurately estimate Q. We also investigate the Mw—M(NEIC) relationship. We find that Mw estimates using S-wave produce smaller residuals when compared with both M(NEIC). Finally, we also investigate the ML—Mw relationship and observe that given the data set we have, the 1:1 holds. We believe that the use of the present methodologies provide consistent magnitude estimates between all the magnitudes investigated that could be used to better assess seismic hazard in the region.

  12. Modeling earthquake magnitudes from injection-induced seismicity on rough faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer, J.; Dunham, E. M.; Segall, P.

    2017-12-01

    It is an open question whether perturbations to the in-situ stress field due to fluid injection affect the magnitudes of induced earthquakes. It has been suggested that characteristics such as the total injected fluid volume control the size of induced events (e.g., Baisch et al., 2010; Shapiro et al., 2011). On the other hand, Van der Elst et al. (2016) argue that the size distribution of induced earthquakes follows Gutenberg-Richter, the same as tectonic events. Numerical simulations support the idea that ruptures nucleating inside regions with high shear-to-effective normal stress ratio may not propagate into regions with lower stress (Dieterich et al., 2015; Schmitt et al., 2015), however, these calculations are done on geometrically smooth faults. Fang & Dunham (2013) show that rupture length on geometrically rough faults is variable, but strongly dependent on background shear/effective normal stress. In this study, we use a 2-D elasto-dynamic rupture simulator that includes rough fault geometry and off-fault plasticity (Dunham et al., 2011) to simulate earthquake ruptures under realistic conditions. We consider aggregate results for faults with and without stress perturbations due to fluid injection. We model a uniform far-field background stress (with local perturbations around the fault due to geometry), superimpose a poroelastic stress field in the medium due to injection, and compute the effective stress on the fault as inputs to the rupture simulator. Preliminary results indicate that even minor stress perturbations on the fault due to injection can have a significant impact on the resulting distribution of rupture lengths, but individual results are highly dependent on the details of the local stress perturbations on the fault due to geometric roughness.

  13. Moment magnitude, local magnitude and corner frequency of small earthquakes nucleating along a low angle normal fault in the Upper Tiber valley (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munafo, I.; Malagnini, L.; Chiaraluce, L.; Valoroso, L.

    2015-12-01

    The relation between moment magnitude (MW) and local magnitude (ML) is still a debated issue (Bath, 1966, 1981; Ristau et al., 2003, 2005). Theoretical considerations and empirical observations show that, in the magnitude range between 3 and 5, MW and ML scale 1∶1. Whilst for smaller magnitudes this 1∶1 scaling breaks down (Bethmann et al. 2011). For accomplishing this task we analyzed the source parameters of about 1500 (30.000 waveforms) well-located small earthquakes occurred in the Upper Tiber Valley (Northern Apennines) in the range of -1.5≤ML≤3.8. In between these earthquakes there are 300 events repeatedly rupturing the same fault patch generally twice within a short time interval (less than 24 hours; Chiaraluce et al., 2007). We use high-resolution short period and broadband recordings acquired between 2010 and 2014 by 50 permanent seismic stations deployed to monitor the activity of a regional low angle normal fault (named Alto Tiberina fault, ATF) in the framework of The Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory project (TABOO; Chiaraluce et al., 2014). For this study the direct determination of MW for small earthquakes is essential but unfortunately the computation of MW for small earthquakes (MW < 3) is not a routine procedure in seismology. We apply the contributions of source, site, and crustal attenuation computed for this area in order to obtain precise spectral corrections to be used in the calculation of small earthquakes spectral plateaus. The aim of this analysis is to achieve moment magnitudes of small events through a procedure that uses our previously calibrated crustal attenuation parameters (geometrical spreading g(r), quality factor Q(f), and the residual parameter k) to correct for path effects. We determine the MW-ML relationships in two selected fault zones (on-fault and fault-hanging-wall) of the ATF by an orthogonal regression analysis providing a semi-automatic and robust procedure for moment magnitude determination within a

  14. Probabilistic model to forecast earthquakes in the Zemmouri (Algeria) seismoactive area on the basis of moment magnitude scale distribution functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baddari, Kamel; Makdeche, Said; Bellalem, Fouzi

    2013-02-01

    Based on the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was developed to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes in the seismoactive area of Zemmouri, Algeria. Firstly, the distributions of earthquake magnitudes M i were described using the distribution function F 0(m), which adjusts the magnitudes considered as independent random variables. Secondly, the obtained result, i.e., the distribution function F 0(m) of the variables M i was used to deduce the distribution functions G(x) and H(y) of the variables Y i = Log M 0,i and Z i = M 0,i , where (Y i)i and (Z i)i are independent. Thirdly, some forecast for moments of the future earthquakes in the studied area is given.

  15. A New Empirical Relation between Surface Wave Magnitude and Rupture Length for Turkey Earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serkan Ozturk

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Many practical problems encountered in quantitative oriented disciplines entail finding the best approximate solution to an over determined system of linear equations. In this study, it is investigated the usage of different regression methods as a theoretical, practical and correct estimation tool in order to obtain the best empirical relationship between surface wave magnitude and rupture length for Turkey earthquakes. For this purpose, a detailed comparison is made among four different regression norms: (1 Least Squares, (2 Least Sum of Absolute Deviations, (3 Total Least Squares or Orthogonal and, (4 Robust Regressions. In order to assess the quality of the fit in a linear regression and to select the best empirical relationship for data sets, the correlation coefficient as a quite simple and very practicable tool is used. A list of all earthquakes where the surface wave magnitude (Ms and surface rupture length (L are available is compiled. In order to estimate the empirical relationships between these parameters for Turkey earthquakes, log-linear fit is used and following equations are derived from different norms: for L2 Norm regression (R2=0.71, for L1 Norm regression (R2=0.92, for Robust regression (R2=0.75, for Orthogonal regression (R2=0.68,                            Consequently, the empirical equation given by the Least Sum of Absolute Deviations regression as  with a strong correlation coefficient (R2=0.92 can be thought as more suitable and more reliable for Turkey earthquakes. Also, local differences in rupture length for a given magnitude can be interpreted in terms of local variation in geologic and seismic efficiencies.  Furthermore, this result suggests that seismic efficiency in a region is dependent on rupture length or magnitude.    Resumen Muchos problemas prácticos encontrados en las disciplinas de orientación cuantitativa implican encontrar la mejor solución aproximada para un sistema

  16. Earthquake Magnitude and Shaking Intensity Dependent Fragility Functions for Rapid Risk Assessment of Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-José Nollet

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available An integrated web application, referred to as ER2 for rapid risk evaluator, is under development for a user-friendly seismic risk assessment by the non-expert public safety community. The assessment of likely negative consequences is based on pre-populated databases of seismic, building inventory and vulnerability parameters. To further accelerate the computation for near real-time analyses, implicit building fragility curves were developed as functions of the magnitude and the intensity of the seismic shaking defined with a single intensity measure, input spectral acceleration at 1.0 s implicitly considering the epicentral distance and local soil conditions. Damage probabilities were compared with those obtained with the standard fragility functions explicitly considering epicentral distances and local site classes in addition to the earthquake magnitudes and respective intensity of the seismic shaking. Different seismic scenarios were considered first for 53 building classes common in Eastern Canada, and then a reduced number of 24 combined building classes was proposed. Comparison of results indicate that the damage predictions with implicit fragility functions for short (M ≤ 5.5 and medium strong motion duration (5.5 < M ≤ 7.5 show low variation with distance and soil class, with average error of less than 3.6%.

  17. The efficacy of support vector machines (SVM) in robust determination of earthquake early warning magnitudes in central Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Ramakrushna; Nair, Rajesh R.

    2013-10-01

    This work deals with a methodology applied to seismic early warning systems which are designed to provide real-time estimation of the magnitude of an event. We will reappraise the work of Simons et al. (2006), who on the basis of wavelet approach predicted a magnitude error of ±1. We will verify and improve upon the methodology of Simons et al. (2006) by applying an SVM statistical learning machine on the time-scale wavelet decomposition methods. We used the data of 108 events in central Japan with magnitude ranging from 3 to 7.4 recorded at KiK-net network stations, for a source-receiver distance of up to 150 km during the period 1998-2011. We applied a wavelet transform on the seismogram data and calculating scale-dependent threshold wavelet coefficients. These coefficients were then classified into low magnitude and high magnitude events by constructing a maximum margin hyperplane between the two classes, which forms the essence of SVMs. Further, the classified events from both the classes were picked up and linear regressions were plotted to determine the relationship between wavelet coefficient magnitude and earthquake magnitude, which in turn helped us to estimate the earthquake magnitude of an event given its threshold wavelet coefficient. At wavelet scale number 7, we predicted the earthquake magnitude of an event within 2.7 seconds. This means that a magnitude determination is available within 2.7 s after the initial onset of the P-wave. These results shed light on the application of SVM as a way to choose the optimal regression function to estimate the magnitude from a few seconds of an incoming seismogram. This would improve the approaches from Simons et al. (2006) which use an average of the two regression functions to estimate the magnitude.

  18. Maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes: A criterion to assess the influence of pressure migration along faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norbeck, Jack H.; Horne, Roland N.

    2018-05-01

    The maximum expected earthquake magnitude is an important parameter in seismic hazard and risk analysis because of its strong influence on ground motion. In the context of injection-induced seismicity, the processes that control how large an earthquake will grow may be influenced by operational factors under engineering control as well as natural tectonic factors. Determining the relative influence of these effects on maximum magnitude will impact the design and implementation of induced seismicity management strategies. In this work, we apply a numerical model that considers the coupled interactions of fluid flow in faulted porous media and quasidynamic elasticity to investigate the earthquake nucleation, rupture, and arrest processes for cases of induced seismicity. We find that under certain conditions, earthquake ruptures are confined to a pressurized region along the fault with a length-scale that is set by injection operations. However, earthquakes are sometimes able to propagate as sustained ruptures outside of the zone that experienced a pressure perturbation. We propose a faulting criterion that depends primarily on the state of stress and the earthquake stress drop to characterize the transition between pressure-constrained and runaway rupture behavior.

  19. New approach of determinations of earthquake moment magnitude using near earthquake source duration and maximum displacement amplitude of high frequency energy radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunawan, H.; Puspito, N. T.; Ibrahim, G.; Harjadi, P. J. P. [ITB, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Tecnology (Indonesia); BMKG (Indonesia)

    2012-06-20

    The new approach method to determine the magnitude by using amplitude displacement relationship (A), epicenter distance ({Delta}) and duration of high frequency radiation (t) has been investigated for Tasikmalaya earthquake, on September 2, 2009, and their aftershock. Moment magnitude scale commonly used seismic surface waves with the teleseismic range of the period is greater than 200 seconds or a moment magnitude of the P wave using teleseismic seismogram data and the range of 10-60 seconds. In this research techniques have been developed a new approach to determine the displacement amplitude and duration of high frequency radiation using near earthquake. Determination of the duration of high frequency using half of period of P waves on the seismograms displacement. This is due tothe very complex rupture process in the near earthquake. Seismic data of the P wave mixing with other wave (S wave) before the duration runs out, so it is difficult to separate or determined the final of P-wave. Application of the 68 earthquakes recorded by station of CISI, Garut West Java, the following relationship is obtained: Mw = 0.78 log (A) + 0.83 log {Delta}+ 0.69 log (t) + 6.46 with: A (m), d (km) and t (second). Moment magnitude of this new approach is quite reliable, time processing faster so useful for early warning.

  20. New approach of determinations of earthquake moment magnitude using near earthquake source duration and maximum displacement amplitude of high frequency energy radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunawan, H.; Puspito, N. T.; Ibrahim, G.; Harjadi, P. J. P.

    2012-06-01

    The new approach method to determine the magnitude by using amplitude displacement relationship (A), epicenter distance (Δ) and duration of high frequency radiation (t) has been investigated for Tasikmalaya earthquake, on September 2, 2009, and their aftershock. Moment magnitude scale commonly used seismic surface waves with the teleseismic range of the period is greater than 200 seconds or a moment magnitude of the P wave using teleseismic seismogram data and the range of 10-60 seconds. In this research techniques have been developed a new approach to determine the displacement amplitude and duration of high frequency radiation using near earthquake. Determination of the duration of high frequency using half of period of P waves on the seismograms displacement. This is due tothe very complex rupture process in the near earthquake. Seismic data of the P wave mixing with other wave (S wave) before the duration runs out, so it is difficult to separate or determined the final of P-wave. Application of the 68 earthquakes recorded by station of CISI, Garut West Java, the following relationship is obtained: Mw = 0.78 log (A) + 0.83 log Δ + 0.69 log (t) + 6.46 with: A (m), d (km) and t (second). Moment magnitude of this new approach is quite reliable, time processing faster so useful for early warning.

  1. New approach of determinations of earthquake moment magnitude using near earthquake source duration and maximum displacement amplitude of high frequency energy radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gunawan, H.; Puspito, N. T.; Ibrahim, G.; Harjadi, P. J. P.

    2012-01-01

    The new approach method to determine the magnitude by using amplitude displacement relationship (A), epicenter distance (Δ) and duration of high frequency radiation (t) has been investigated for Tasikmalaya earthquake, on September 2, 2009, and their aftershock. Moment magnitude scale commonly used seismic surface waves with the teleseismic range of the period is greater than 200 seconds or a moment magnitude of the P wave using teleseismic seismogram data and the range of 10-60 seconds. In this research techniques have been developed a new approach to determine the displacement amplitude and duration of high frequency radiation using near earthquake. Determination of the duration of high frequency using half of period of P waves on the seismograms displacement. This is due tothe very complex rupture process in the near earthquake. Seismic data of the P wave mixing with other wave (S wave) before the duration runs out, so it is difficult to separate or determined the final of P-wave. Application of the 68 earthquakes recorded by station of CISI, Garut West Java, the following relationship is obtained: Mw = 0.78 log (A) + 0.83 log Δ+ 0.69 log (t) + 6.46 with: A (m), d (km) and t (second). Moment magnitude of this new approach is quite reliable, time processing faster so useful for early warning.

  2. Tohoku's earthquake of Friday March 11, 2011 (5:46 UT), magnitude 9.0, off Honshu island (Japan)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    On Friday March 11, 2011, at 5:46 UT (2:46 PM local time), a magnitude 9.0 earthquake took place at 80 km east of Honshu island (Japan). The earthquake generated a tsunami which led to the loss of the cooling systems of the Fukushima Dai-ichi and Fukushima Daini power plants. This paper describes the seismo-tectonic and historical seismic context of the Japan archipelago and the first analyses of the Tohoku earthquake impact: magnitudes of first shock and of aftershocks, impact on nuclear facilities (maximum acceleration values detected with respect to design basis values, subsidence of coastal areas and submersion of power plant platforms). (J.S.)

  3. Precursory diffuse carbon dioxide degassing signature related to a 5.1 magnitude earthquake in El Salvador, Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar, J. M. L.; Pérez, N. M.; Hernández, P. A.; Soriano, T.; Barahona, F.; Olmos, R.; Cartagena, R.; López, D. L.; Lima, R. N.; Melián, G.; Galindo, I.; Padrón, E.; Sumino, H.; Notsu, K.

    2002-12-01

    Anomalous changes in the diffuse emission of carbon dioxide have been observed before some of the aftershocks of the 13 February 2001 El Salvador earthquake (magnitude 6.6). A significant increase in soil CO 2 efflux was detected 8 days before a 5.1 magnitude earthquake on 8 May 2001 25 km away from the observation site. In addition, pre- and co-seismic CO 2 efflux variations have also been observed related to the onset of a seismic swarm beneath San Vicente volcano on May 2001. Strain changes and/or fluid pressure fluctuations prior to earthquakes in the crust are hypothesized to be responsible for the observed variations in gas efflux at the surface environment of San Vicente volcano.

  4. Underestimation of Microearthquake Size by the Magnitude Scale of the Japan Meteorological Agency: Influence on Earthquake Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchide, Takahiko; Imanishi, Kazutoshi

    2018-01-01

    Magnitude scales based on the amplitude of seismic waves, including the Japan Meteorological Agency magnitude scale (Mj), are commonly used in routine processes. The moment magnitude scale (Mw), however, is more physics based and is able to evaluate any type and size of earthquake. This paper addresses the relation between Mj and Mw for microearthquakes. The relative moment magnitudes among earthquakes are well constrained by multiple spectral ratio analyses. The results for the events in the Fukushima Hamadori and northern Ibaraki prefecture areas of Japan imply that Mj is significantly and systematically smaller than Mw for microearthquakes. The Mj-Mw curve has slopes of 1/2 and 1 for small and large values of Mj, respectively; for example, Mj = 1.0 corresponds to Mw = 2.0. A simple numerical simulation implies that this is due to anelastic attenuation and the recording using a finite sampling interval. The underestimation affects earthquake statistics. The completeness magnitude, Mc, for magnitudes lower than which the magnitude-frequency distribution deviates from the Gutenberg-Richter law, is effectively lower for Mw than that for Mj, by taking into account the systematic difference between Mj and Mw. The b values of the Gutenberg-Richter law are larger for Mw than for Mj. As the b values for Mj and Mw are well correlated, qualitative argument using b values is not affected. While the estimated b values for Mj are below 1.5, those for Mw often exceed 1.5. This may affect the physical implication of the seismicity.

  5. Preliminary Results on Earthquake Recurrence Intervals, Rupture Segmentation, and Potential Earthquake Moment Magnitudes along the Tahoe-Sierra Frontal Fault Zone, Lake Tahoe, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howle, J.; Bawden, G. W.; Schweickert, R. A.; Hunter, L. E.; Rose, R.

    2012-12-01

    Utilizing high-resolution bare-earth LiDAR topography, field observations, and earlier results of Howle et al. (2012), we estimate latest Pleistocene/Holocene earthquake-recurrence intervals, propose scenarios for earthquake-rupture segmentation, and estimate potential earthquake moment magnitudes for the Tahoe-Sierra frontal fault zone (TSFFZ), west of Lake Tahoe, California. We have developed a new technique to estimate the vertical separation for the most recent and the previous ground-rupturing earthquakes at five sites along the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments of the TSFFZ. At these sites are fault scarps with two bevels separated by an inflection point (compound fault scarps), indicating that the cumulative vertical separation (VS) across the scarp resulted from two events. This technique, modified from the modeling methods of Howle et al. (2012), uses the far-field plunge of the best-fit footwall vector and the fault-scarp morphology from high-resolution LiDAR profiles to estimate the per-event VS. From this data, we conclude that the adjacent and overlapping Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments have ruptured coseismically twice during the Holocene. The right-stepping, en echelon range-front segments of the TSFFZ show progressively greater VS rates and shorter earthquake-recurrence intervals from southeast to northwest. Our preliminary estimates suggest latest Pleistocene/ Holocene earthquake-recurrence intervals of 4.8±0.9x103 years for a coseismic rupture of the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments, located at the southeastern end of the TSFFZ. For the Rubicon Peak segment, northwest of the Echo Peak and Mt. Tallac segments, our preliminary estimate of the maximum earthquake-recurrence interval is 2.8±1.0x103 years, based on data from two sites. The correspondence between high VS rates and short recurrence intervals suggests that earthquake sequences along the TSFFZ may initiate in the northwest part of the zone and then occur to the southeast with a lower

  6. Major earthquake of Friday March 11, 2011, magnitude 8.9 at 5:46 UT, off Honshu island (Japan)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    On Friday March 11, 2011, at 5:46 UT (2:46 PM local time), a magnitude 8.9 earthquake took place at 80 km east of Honshu island (Japan). The earthquake affected a large part of the Honshu territory and led to the automatic emergency shutdown of all nuclear power plants of the east coast. This paper recalls first the seismo-tectonic and historical seismic context of the Japan archipelago and the first analyses of the Tohoku earthquake impact on nuclear facilities. At the time of publication of this information report, no radioactive release in the environment and no anomaly at the Tokai-Mura and Rokkasho-Mura sites were mentioned. However, the evacuation of populations in a 3 to 10 km area around the Fukushima-Dai-ichi power plant had been ordered by the Governor as preventive measure, which made one think that the situation at this specific site was particularly worrying. (J.S.)

  7. Dynamic triggering of low magnitude earthquakes in the Middle American Subduction Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escudero, C. R.; Velasco, A. A.

    2010-12-01

    We analyze global and Middle American Subduction Zone (MASZ) seismicity from 1998 to 2008 to quantify the transient stresses effects at teleseismic distances. We use the Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre Catalog (ISCCD) published by the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS). To identify MASZ seismicity changes due to distant, large (Mw >7) earthquakes, we first identify local earthquakes that occurred before and after the mainshocks. We then group the local earthquakes within a cluster radius between 75 to 200 km. We obtain statistics based on characteristics of both mainshocks and local earthquakes clusters, such as local cluster-mainshock azimuth, mainshock focal mechanism, and local earthquakes clusters within the MASZ. Due to lateral variations of the dip along the subducted oceanic plate, we divide the Mexican subduction zone in four segments. We then apply the Paired Samples Statistical Test (PSST) to the sorted data to identify increment, decrement or either in the local seismicity associated with distant large earthquakes. We identify dynamic triggering for all MASZ segments produced by large earthquakes emerging from specific azimuths, as well as, a decrease for some cases. We find no depend of seismicity changes due to focal mainshock mechanism.

  8. Estimation of the Demand for Hospital Care After a Possible High-Magnitude Earthquake in the City of Lima, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambarén, Celso; Uyen, Angela; Rodriguez, Miguel

    2017-02-01

    Introduction A model prepared by National Civil Defense (INDECI; Lima, Peru) estimated that an earthquake with an intensity of 8.0 Mw in front of the central coast of Peru would result in 51,019 deaths and 686,105 injured in districts of Metropolitan Lima and Callao. Using this information as a base, a study was designed to determine the characteristics of the demand for treatment in public hospitals and to estimate gaps in care in the hours immediately after such an event. A probabilistic model was designed that included the following variables: demand for hospital care; time of arrival at the hospitals; type of medical treatment; reason for hospital admission; and the need for specialized care like hemodialysis, blood transfusions, and surgical procedures. The values for these variables were obtained through a literature search of the databases of the MEDLINE medical bibliography, the Cochrane and SciELO libraries, and Google Scholar for information on earthquakes over the last 30 years of over magnitude 6.0 on the moment magnitude scale. If a high-magnitude earthquake were to occur in Lima, it was estimated that between 23,328 and 178,387 injured would go to hospitals, of which between 4,666 and 121,303 would require inpatient care, while between 18,662 and 57,084 could be treated as outpatients. It was estimated that there would be an average of 8,768 cases of crush syndrome and 54,217 cases of other health problems. Enough blood would be required for 8,761 wounded in the first 24 hours. Furthermore, it was expected that there would be a deficit of hospital beds and operating theaters due to the high demand. Sudden and violent disasters, such as earthquakes, represent significant challenges for health systems and services. This study shows the deficit of preparation and capacity to respond to a possible high-magnitude earthquake. The study also showed there are not enough resources to face mega-disasters, especially in large cities. Bambarén C , Uyen A

  9. Real-Time Magnitude Characterization of Large Earthquakes Using the Predominant Period Derived From 1 Hz GPS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Psimoulis, Panos A.; Houlié, Nicolas; Behr, Yannik

    2018-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems' performance is driven by the trade-off between the need for a rapid alert and the accuracy of each solution. A challenge for many EEW systems has been the magnitude saturation for large events (MW > 7) and the resulting underestimation of seismic moment magnitude. In this study, we test the performance of high-rate (1 Hz) GPS, based on seven seismic events, to evaluate whether long-period ground motions can be measured well enough to infer reliably earthquake predominant periods. We show that high-rate GPS data allow the computation of a GPS-based predominant period (τg) to estimate lower bounds for the magnitude of earthquakes and distinguish between large (MW > 7) and great (MW > 8) events and thus extend the capability of EEW systems for larger events. It has also identified the impact of the different values of the smoothing factor α on the τg results and how the sampling rate and the computation process differentiate τg from the commonly used τp.

  10. Electromagnetic Energy Released in the Subduction (Benioff) Zone in Weeks Previous to Earthquake Occurrence in Central Peru and the Estimation of Earthquake Magnitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heraud, J. A.; Centa, V. A.; Bleier, T.

    2017-12-01

    During the past four years, magnetometers deployed in the Peruvian coast have been providing evidence that the ULF pulses received are indeed generated at the subduction or Benioff zone and are connected with the occurrence of earthquakes within a few kilometers of the source of such pulses. This evidence was presented at the AGU 2015 Fall meeting, showing the results of triangulation of pulses from two magnetometers located in the central area of Peru, using data collected during a two-year period. Additional work has been done and the method has now been expanded to provide the instantaneous energy released at the stress areas on the Benioff zone during the precursory stage, before an earthquake occurs. Collected data from several events and in other parts of the country will be shown in a sequential animated form that illustrates the way energy is released in the ULF part of the electromagnetic spectrum. The process has been extended in time and geographical places. Only pulses associated with the occurrence of earthquakes are taken into account in an area which is highly associated with subduction-zone seismic events and several pulse parameters have been used to estimate a function relating the magnitude of the earthquake with the value of a function generated with those parameters. The results shown, including the animated data video, constitute additional work towards the estimation of the magnitude of an earthquake about to occur, based on electromagnetic pulses that originated at the subduction zone. The method is providing clearer evidence that electromagnetic precursors in effect conveys physical and useful information prior to the advent of a seismic event

  11. Relaxation of the south flank after the 7.2-magnitude Kalapana earthquake, Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvorak, John J.; Klein, Fred W.; Swanson, Donald A.

    1994-01-01

    An M = 7.2 earthquake on 29 November 1975 caused the south flank of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, to move seaward several meters: a catastrophic release of compression of the south flank caused by earlier injections of magma into the adjacent segment of a rift zone. The focal mechanisms of the mainshock, the largest foreshock, and the largest aftershock suggest seaward movement of the upper block. The rate of aftershocks decreased in a familiar hyperbolic decay, reaching the pre-1975 rate of seismicity by the mid-1980s. Repeated rift-zone intrusions and eruptions after 1975, which occurred within 25 km of the summit area, compressed the adjacent portion of the south flank, apparently masking continued seaward displacement of the south flank. This is evident along a trilateration line that continued to extend, suggesting seaward displacement, immediately after the M = 7.2 earthquake, but then was compressed during a series of intrusions and eruptions that began in September 1977. Farther to the east, trilateration measurements show that the portion of the south flank above the aftershock zone, but beyond the area of compression caused by the rift-zone intrusions and eruptions, continued to move seaward at a decreasing rate until the mid-1980s, mimicking the decay in aftershock rate. Along the same portion of the south flank, the pattern of vertical surface displacements can be explained by continued seaward movement of the south flank and development of two eruptive fissures along the east rift zone, each of which extended from a depth of ∼3 km to the surface. The aftershock rate and continued seaward movement of the south flank are reminiscent of crustal response to other large earthquakes, such as the 1966 M = 6 Parkfield earthquake and the 1983 M = 6.5 Coalinga earthquake.

  12. Discrimination of DPRK M5.1 February 12th, 2013 Earthquake as Nuclear Test Using Analysis of Magnitude, Rupture Duration and Ratio of Seismic Energy and Moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salomo Sianipar, Dimas; Subakti, Hendri; Pribadi, Sugeng

    2015-04-01

    On February 12th, 2013 morning at 02:57 UTC, there had been an earthquake with its epicenter in the region of North Korea precisely around Sungjibaegam Mountains. Monitoring stations of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) and some other seismic network detected this shallow seismic event. Analyzing seismograms recorded after this event can discriminate between a natural earthquake or an explosion. Zhao et. al. (2014) have been successfully discriminate this seismic event of North Korea nuclear test 2013 from ordinary earthquakes based on network P/S spectral ratios using broadband regional seismic data recorded in China, South Korea and Japan. The P/S-type spectral ratios were powerful discriminants to separate explosions from earthquake (Zhao et. al., 2014). Pribadi et. al. (2014) have characterized 27 earthquake-generated tsunamis (tsunamigenic earthquake or tsunami earthquake) from 1991 to 2012 in Indonesia using W-phase inversion analysis, the ratio between the seismic energy (E) and the seismic moment (Mo), the moment magnitude (Mw), the rupture duration (To) and the distance of the hypocenter to the trench. Some of this method was also used by us to characterize the nuclear test earthquake. We discriminate this DPRK M5.1 February 12th, 2013 earthquake from a natural earthquake using analysis magnitude mb, ms and mw, ratio of seismic energy and moment and rupture duration. We used the waveform data of the seismicity on the scope region in radius 5 degrees from the DPRK M5.1 February 12th, 2013 epicenter 41.29, 129.07 (Zhang and Wen, 2013) from 2006 to 2014 with magnitude M ≥ 4.0. We conclude that this earthquake was a shallow seismic event with explosion characteristics and can be discriminate from a natural or tectonic earthquake. Keywords: North Korean nuclear test, magnitude mb, ms, mw, ratio between seismic energy and moment, ruptures duration

  13. Combining Earthquake Focal Mechanism Inversion and Coulomb Friction Law to Yield Tectonic Stress Magnitudes in Strike-slip Faulting Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soh, I.; Chang, C.

    2017-12-01

    The techniques for estimating present-day stress states by inverting multiple earthquake focal mechanism solutions (FMS) provide orientations of the three principal stresses and their relative magnitudes. In order to estimate absolute magnitudes of the stresses that are generally required to analyze faulting mechanics, we combine the relative stress magnitude parameter (R-value) derived from the inversion process and the concept of frictional equilibrium of stress state defined by Coulomb friction law. The stress inversion in Korean Peninsula using 152 FMS data (magnitude≥2.5) conducted at regularly spaced grid points yields a consistent strike-slip faulting regime in which the maximum (S1) and the minimum (S3) principal stresses act in horizontal planes (with an S1 azimuth in ENE-WSW) and the intermediate principal stress (S2) close to vertical. However, R-value varies from 0.28 to 0.75 depending on locations, systematically increasing eastward. Based on the assumptions that the vertical stress is lithostatic, pore pressure is hydrostatic, and the maximum differential stress (S1-S3) is limited by Byerlee's friction of optimally oriented faults for slip, we estimate absolute magnitudes of the two horizontal principal stresses using R-value. As R-value increases, so do the magnitudes of the horizontal stresses. Our estimation of the stress magnitudes shows that the maximum horizontal principal stress (S1) normalized by vertical stress tends to increase from 1.3 in the west to 1.8 in the east. The estimated variation of stress magnitudes is compatible with distinct clustering of faulting types in different regions. Normal faulting events are densely populated in the west region where the horizontal stress is relatively low, whereas numerous reverse faulting events prevail in the east offshore where the horizontal stress is relatively high. Such a characteristic distribution of distinct faulting types in different regions can only be explained in terms of stress

  14. Determination of broadband moment magnitude (Mwp) for August 11, 2009 Suruga-Bay earthquake (MJMA=6.5)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuboi, S.; Hirshorn, B. F.

    2009-12-01

    We have determined Mwp for the August 11, 2009 Suruga-Bay earthquake (MJMA=6.5) using broadband seismograms recorded at close epicentral distance stations. We have used two broadband seismograph stations: JHJ2 (epicentral distance 1.9 degree) and FUJ (epicentral distance 0.44 degree). Because of the close epicentral distance of FUJ, the seismogram is clipped at about 10 second after the P-wave arrival. However, it was possible to use the first 10 second of this seismogram to compute Mwp. We get Mwp=6.4 for JHJ2 and 6.8 for FUJ(figure 1). After we apply Whitmore et al (2000)’s correction and average these two stations, we get Mwp=6.6 for this event. The epicentral distance of 0.44 degree for magnitude 6.5 earthquake is marginal to treat this seismogram as far-field. However, considering the aftershock distribution, the fault area seems to be limited to within the Suruga-Bay, which may confirm the fact that Mwp can be successfully computed at FUJ based on the far-field approximation. This result is significant in using Mwp from close epicentral distance seismograms to issue early tsunami warning. A large earthquake with Mw=7.5 (GCMT) occurred in Andaman Island, India, 10 minutes before this Suruga-Bay event. This made it very difficult to estimate Mwp for the Suruga-Bay event from broadband seismograms at teleseismic distances because of the large amplitude of Mw7.5 Andaman Island earthquake. In this case, it is therefore difficult to issue accurate tsunami warnings based on the teleseismic stations. We used broadband seismograms recorded by F-net operated by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention.

  15. Time series of GNSS-derived ionospheric maps to detect anomalies as possible precursors of high magnitude earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarella, M.; De Giglio, M.; Galeandro, A.; Mancini, F.

    2012-04-01

    The modification of some atmospheric physical properties prior to a high magnitude earthquake has been recently debated within the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere (LAI) Coupling model. Among this variety of phenomena the ionization of air at the higher level of the atmosphere, called ionosphere, is investigated in this work. Such a ionization occurrences could be caused by possible leaking of gases from earth crust and their presence was detected around the time of high magnitude earthquakes by several authors. However, the spatial scale and temporal domain over which such a disturbances come into evidence is still a controversial item. Even thought the ionospheric activity could be investigated by different methodologies (satellite or terrestrial measurements), we selected the production of ionospheric maps by the analysis of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Data) data as possible way to detect anomalies prior of a seismic event over a wide area around the epicentre. It is well known that, in the GNSS sciences, the ionospheric activity could be probed by the analysis of refraction phenomena occurred on the dual frequency signals along the satellite to receiver path. The analysis of refraction phenomena affecting data acquired by the GNSS permanent trackers is able to produce daily to hourly maps representing the spatial distribution of the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) as an index of the ionization degree in the upper atmosphere. The presence of large ionospheric anomalies could be therefore interpreted in the LAI Coupling model like a precursor signal of a strong earthquake, especially when the appearance of other different precursors (thermal anomalies and/or gas fluxes) could be detected. In this work, a six-month long series of ionospheric maps produced from GNSS data collected by a network of 49 GPS permanent stations distributed within an area around the city of L'Aquila (Abruzzi, Italy), where an earthquake (M = 6.3) occurred on April 6, 2009

  16. Spatial Variation of Magnitude Scaling Factors During the 2010 Darfield and 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand, Earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Carter, William Lake

    2016-01-01

    Magnitude Scaling Factors (MSF) account for the durational effects of strong ground shaking on the inducement of liquefaction within the simplified liquefaction evaluation procedure which is the most commonly used approach for assessing liquefaction potential worldwide. Within the context of the simplified procedure, the spatial variation in the seismic demand imposed on the soil traditionally has been assumed to be solely a function of the spatial variation of the peak amplitude of the groun...

  17. Crustal seismicity and the earthquake catalog maximum moment magnitudes (Mcmax) in stable continental regions (SCRs): correlation with the seismic velocity of the lithosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, Walter D.; Ritsema, Jeroen; Hwang, Yong Keun

    2012-01-01

    A joint analysis of global seismicity and seismic tomography indicates that the seismic potential of continental intraplate regions is correlated with the seismic properties of the lithosphere. Archean and Early Proterozoic cratons with cold, stable continental lithospheric roots have fewer crustal earthquakes and a lower maximum earthquake catalog moment magnitude (Mcmax). The geographic distribution of thick lithospheric roots is inferred from the global seismic model S40RTS that displays shear-velocity perturbations (δVS) relative to the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM). We compare δVS at a depth of 175 km with the locations and moment magnitudes (Mw) of intraplate earthquakes in the crust (Schulte and Mooney, 2005). Many intraplate earthquakes concentrate around the pronounced lateral gradients in lithospheric thickness that surround the cratons and few earthquakes occur within cratonic interiors. Globally, 27% of stable continental lithosphere is underlain by δVS≥3.0%, yet only 6.5% of crustal earthquakes with Mw>4.5 occur above these regions with thick lithosphere. No earthquakes in our catalog with Mw>6 have occurred above mantle lithosphere with δVS>3.5%, although such lithosphere comprises 19% of stable continental regions. Thus, for cratonic interiors with seismically determined thick lithosphere (1) there is a significant decrease in the number of crustal earthquakes, and (2) the maximum moment magnitude found in the earthquake catalog is Mcmax=6.0. We attribute these observations to higher lithospheric strength beneath cratonic interiors due to lower temperatures and dehydration in both the lower crust and the highly depleted lithospheric root.

  18. Crustal seismicity and the earthquake catalog maximum moment magnitude (Mcmax) in stable continental regions (SCRs): Correlation with the seismic velocity of the lithosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, Walter D.; Ritsema, Jeroen; Hwang, Yong Keun

    2012-12-01

    A joint analysis of global seismicity and seismic tomography indicates that the seismic potential of continental intraplate regions is correlated with the seismic properties of the lithosphere. Archean and Early Proterozoic cratons with cold, stable continental lithospheric roots have fewer crustal earthquakes and a lower maximum earthquake catalog moment magnitude (Mcmax). The geographic distribution of thick lithospheric roots is inferred from the global seismic model S40RTS that displays shear-velocity perturbations (δVS) relative to the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM). We compare δVS at a depth of 175 km with the locations and moment magnitudes (Mw) of intraplate earthquakes in the crust (Schulte and Mooney, 2005). Many intraplate earthquakes concentrate around the pronounced lateral gradients in lithospheric thickness that surround the cratons and few earthquakes occur within cratonic interiors. Globally, 27% of stable continental lithosphere is underlain by δVS≥3.0%, yet only 6.5% of crustal earthquakes with Mw>4.5 occur above these regions with thick lithosphere. No earthquakes in our catalog with Mw>6 have occurred above mantle lithosphere with δVS>3.5%, although such lithosphere comprises 19% of stable continental regions. Thus, for cratonic interiors with seismically determined thick lithosphere (1) there is a significant decrease in the number of crustal earthquakes, and (2) the maximum moment magnitude found in the earthquake catalog is Mcmax=6.0. We attribute these observations to higher lithospheric strength beneath cratonic interiors due to lower temperatures and dehydration in both the lower crust and the highly depleted lithospheric root.

  19. Seismic properties of the Longmen Shan complex: Implications for the moment magnitude of the great 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Shengsi; Ji, Shaocheng; Wang, Qian; Wang, Hongcai; Long, Changxing; Salisbury, Matthew

    2012-09-01

    The 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is the largest active tectonic event reported to date in Sichuan (China). We have experimentally calibrated, up to 800 MPa, seismic and elastic properties of 12 representative samples from the Longmen Shan complex in which this great earthquake took place and its coseismic ruptures nucleated and propagated. Most of the samples show little Vp or Vs anisotropy at pressures above the microcrack-closure pressure (Pc = 200-300 MPa), and so the variation of anisotropy with pressure provides important hints for the preferred orientation of microcracks in the nonlinear poroelastic regime below Pc. Geothermal and rheological profiles indicate that the focal depth (~ 19 km) corresponds to the base of the schizosphere, below which the Longmen Shan complex switches from the brittle to ductile behavior. The investigation reveals that the crust of the Longmen Shan range consists of 4 layers from the surface to the Moho: Layer 1: Vp < 4.88 km/s (0-3 km thick, sedimentary rocks such as limestone, sandstone, conglomerate, and mudstone); Layer 2: Vp = 5.95-6.25 km/s (25-28 km thick, felsic rocks); Layer 3: Vp = 6.55 km/s (10 km thick, 67.5% felsic and 32.5% mafic rocks); and Layer 4: Vp = 6.90 km/s (8 km thick, 20.0% felsic and 80.0% mafic rocks). The average Vp/Vs ratio of 1.71 or Poisson's ratio of 0.24 calculated for the whole crust is consistent with the results measured using teleseismic receiver function techniques. This study also offers necessary information for broadband simulations of strong ground motions in the assessment and forecast of earthquake hazards in the region. Furthermore, the study, which yields a moment magnitude of 7.9-8.0 given the variation in the dip of the coseismic ruptures and the uncertainty in the depth to which the coseismic rupture may propagate downwards below the depth of the mainshock hypocenter, presents the first accurate quantification of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake's size.

  20. Testing and comparison of three frequency-based magnitude estimating parameters for earthquake early warning based events in the Yunnan region, China in 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianjing; Li, Hongjie

    2018-06-01

    To mitigate potential seismic disasters in the Yunnan region, China, building up suitable magnitude estimation scaling laws for an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) is in high demand. In this paper, the records from the main and after-shocks of the Yingjiang earthquake (M W 5.9), the Ludian earthquake (M W 6.2) and the Jinggu earthquake (M W 6.1), which occurred in Yunnan in 2014, were used to develop three estimators, including the maximum of the predominant period ({{τ }{{p}}}\\max ), the characteristic period (τ c) and the log-average period (τ log), for estimating earthquake magnitude. The correlations between these three frequency-based parameters and catalog magnitudes were developed, compared and evaluated against previous studies. The amplitude and period of seismic waves might be amplified in the Ludian mountain-canyon area by multiple reflections and resonance, leading to excessive values of the calculated parameters, which are consistent with Sichuan’s scaling. As a result, τ log was best correlated with magnitude and τ c had the highest slope of regression equation, while {{τ }{{p}}}\\max performed worst with large scatter and less sensitivity for the change of magnitude. No evident saturation occurred in the case of M 6.1 and M 6.2 in this study. Even though both τ c and τ log performed similarly and can well reflect the size of the Earthquake, τ log has slightly fewer prediction errors for small scale earthquakes (M ≤ 4.5), which was also observed by previous research. Our work offers an insight into the feasibility of a EEWS in Yunnan, China, and this study shows that it is necessary to build up an appropriate scaling law suitable for the warning region.

  1. Tectonic stress orientations and magnitudes, and friction of faults, deduced from earthquake focal mechanism inversions over the Korean Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soh, Inho; Chang, Chandong; Lee, Junhyung; Hong, Tae-Kyung; Park, Eui-Seob

    2018-05-01

    We characterize the present-day stress state in and around the Korean Peninsula using formal inversions of earthquake focal mechanisms. Two different methods are used to select preferred fault planes in the double-couple focal mechanism solutions: one that minimizes average misfit angle and the other choosing faults with higher instability. We invert selected sets of fault planes for estimating the principal stresses at regularly spaced grid points, using a circular-area data-binning method, where the bin radius is optimized to yield the best possible stress inversion results based on the World Stress Map quality ranking scheme. The inversions using the two methods yield well constrained and fairly comparable results, which indicate that the prevailing stress regime is strike-slip, and the maximum horizontal principal stress (SHmax) is oriented ENE-WSW throughout the study region. Although the orientation of the stresses is consistent across the peninsula, the relative stress magnitude parameter (R-value) varies significantly, from 0.22 in the northwest to 0.89 in the southeast. Based on our knowledge of the R-values and stress regime, and using a value for vertical stress (Sv) estimated from the overburden weight of rock, together with a value for the maximum differential stress (based on the Coulomb friction of faults optimally oriented for slip), we estimate the magnitudes of the two horizontal principal stresses. The horizontal stress magnitudes increase from west to east such that SHmax/Sv ratio rises from 1.5 to 2.4, and the Shmin/Sv ratio from 0.6 to 0.8. The variation in the magnitudes of the tectonic stresses appears to be related to differences in the rigidity of crustal rocks. Using the complete stress tensors, including both orientations and magnitudes, we assess the possible ranges of frictional coefficients for different types of faults. We show that normal and reverse faults have lower frictional coefficients than strike-slip faults, suggesting that

  2. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Labor Market Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of economic Super Sectors in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each Super Sector to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the scenario earthquake on economic sectors and provides a baseline for the indirect and interactive analysis of an input-output model of the regional economy. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by the North American Industry Classification System. According to the analysis results, nearly 225,000 business

  3. SCARDEC: a new technique for the rapid determination of seismic moment magnitude, focal mechanism and source time functions for large earthquakes using body-wave deconvolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallée, M.; Charléty, J.; Ferreira, A. M. G.; Delouis, B.; Vergoz, J.

    2011-01-01

    Accurate and fast magnitude determination for large, shallow earthquakes is of key importance for post-seismic response and tsumami alert purposes. When no local real-time data are available, which is today the case for most subduction earthquakes, the first information comes from teleseismic body waves. Standard body-wave methods give accurate magnitudes for earthquakes up to Mw= 7-7.5. For larger earthquakes, the analysis is more complex, because of the non-validity of the point-source approximation and of the interaction between direct and surface-reflected phases. The latter effect acts as a strong high-pass filter, which complicates the magnitude determination. We here propose an automated deconvolutive approach, which does not impose any simplifying assumptions about the rupture process, thus being well adapted to large earthquakes. We first determine the source duration based on the length of the high frequency (1-3 Hz) signal content. The deconvolution of synthetic double-couple point source signals—depending on the four earthquake parameters strike, dip, rake and depth—from the windowed real data body-wave signals (including P, PcP, PP, SH and ScS waves) gives the apparent source time function (STF). We search the optimal combination of these four parameters that respects the physical features of any STF: causality, positivity and stability of the seismic moment at all stations. Once this combination is retrieved, the integration of the STFs gives directly the moment magnitude. We apply this new approach, referred as the SCARDEC method, to most of the major subduction earthquakes in the period 1990-2010. Magnitude differences between the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) and the SCARDEC method may reach 0.2, but values are found consistent if we take into account that the Global CMT solutions for large, shallow earthquakes suffer from a known trade-off between dip and seismic moment. We show by modelling long-period surface waves of these events that

  4. Earthquake in La Rochelle (North of the Aquitaine Basin) on the 28 April 2016 (6h46 UT), Magnitude = 5.2 (Ml - CEA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    This publication firstly briefly recalls data regarding a moderate earthquake which occurred near La Rochelle on the 28 of April 2016, evokes the few damages, and notices that such an event is rather frequent in this region. It also recalls various recorded and historical earthquakes with a magnitude higher than 7 and which occurred in northern part of the Aquitaine Basin. It indicates the geological origin of this seismic activity. Then, it proposes an overview of the impact of the earthquake of April 2016 on nuclear installations. It outlines that, due to the distance of these installations to the epicentre and to the relatively moderate magnitude, no effect had to be expected, and that the seismic hazard taken into account for the nuclear installations is in fact much higher than that of the event

  5. Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  6. Giant seismites and megablock uplift in the East African Rift: evidence for Late Pleistocene large magnitude earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbert-Wolf, Hannah Louise; Roberts, Eric M

    2015-01-01

    In lieu of comprehensive instrumental seismic monitoring, short historical records, and limited fault trench investigations for many seismically active areas, the sedimentary record provides important archives of seismicity in the form of preserved horizons of soft-sediment deformation features, termed seismites. Here we report on extensive seismites in the Late Quaternary-Recent (≤ ~ 28,000 years BP) alluvial and lacustrine strata of the Rukwa Rift Basin, a segment of the Western Branch of the East African Rift System. We document examples of the most highly deformed sediments in shallow, subsurface strata close to the regional capital of Mbeya, Tanzania. This includes a remarkable, clastic 'megablock complex' that preserves remobilized sediment below vertically displaced blocks of intact strata (megablocks), some in excess of 20 m-wide. Documentation of these seismites expands the database of seismogenic sedimentary structures, and attests to large magnitude, Late Pleistocene-Recent earthquakes along the Western Branch of the East African Rift System. Understanding how seismicity deforms near-surface sediments is critical for predicting and preparing for modern seismic hazards, especially along the East African Rift and other tectonically active, developing regions.

  7. Spatial variations in the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, J.A.; Wyss, M.; Latchman, J.L.

    1998-01-01

    The frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes measured by the b-value is determined as a function of space beneath Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from data recorded between August 1, 1995 and March 31, 1996. A volume of anomalously high b-values (b > 3.0) with a 1.5 km radius is imaged at depths of 0 and 1.5 km beneath English's Crater and Chance's Peak. This high b-value anomaly extends southwest to Gage's Soufriere. At depths greater than 2.5 km volumes of comparatively low b-values (b-1) are found beneath St. George's Hill, Windy Hill, and below 2.5 km depth and to the south of English's Crater. We speculate the depth of high b-value anomalies under volcanoes may be a function of silica content, modified by some additional factors, with the most siliceous having these volumes that are highly fractured or contain high pore pressure at the shallowest depths. Copyright 1998 by the American Geophysical Union.

  8. Large magnitude (M > 7.5) offshore earthquakes in 2012: few examples of absent or little tsunamigenesis, with implications for tsunami early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagnoni, Gianluca; Armigliato, Alberto; Tinti, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    We take into account some examples of offshore earthquakes occurred worldwide in year 2012 that were characterised by a "large" magnitude (Mw equal or larger than 7.5) but which produced no or little tsunami effects. Here, "little" is intended as "lower than expected on the basis of the parent earthquake magnitude". The examples we analyse include three earthquakes occurred along the Pacific coasts of Central America (20 March, Mw=7.8, Mexico; 5 September, Mw=7.6, Costa Rica; 7 November, Mw=7.5, Mexico), the Mw=7.6 and Mw=7.7 earthquakes occurred respectively on 31 August and 28 October offshore Philippines and offshore Alaska, and the two Indian Ocean earthquakes registered on a single day (11 April) and characterised by Mw=8.6 and Mw=8.2. For each event, we try to face the problem related to its tsunamigenic potential from two different perspectives. The first can be considered purely scientific and coincides with the question: why was the ensuing tsunami so weak? The answer can be related partly to the particular tectonic setting in the source area, partly to the particular position of the source with respect to the coastline, and finally to the focal mechanism of the earthquake and to the slip distribution on the ruptured fault. The first two pieces of information are available soon after the earthquake occurrence, while the third requires time periods in the order of tens of minutes. The second perspective is more "operational" and coincides with the tsunami early warning perspective, for which the question is: will the earthquake generate a significant tsunami and if so, where will it strike? The Indian Ocean events of 11 April 2012 are perfect examples of the fact that the information on the earthquake magnitude and position alone may not be sufficient to produce reliable tsunami warnings. We emphasise that it is of utmost importance that the focal mechanism determination is obtained in the future much more quickly than it is at present and that this

  9. New constraints on the magnitude of the 4 January 1907 tsunami earthquake off Sumatra, Indonesia, and its Indian Ocean-wide tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, S. S.; Li, L.; Okal, E.; Kanamori, H.; Morin, J.; Sieh, K.; Switzer, A.

    2017-12-01

    On 4 January 1907, an earthquake and tsunami occurred off the west coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, causing at least 2,188 fatalities. The earthquake was given an instrumental surface-wave magnitude (MS) in the range of 7.5 to 8.0 at periods of ≈40s. The tsunami it triggered was destructive on the islands of Nias and Simeulue; on the latter, this gave rise to the legend of the S'mong. This tsunami appears in records in India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and as far as the island of La Réunion. In relation to published seismic magnitudes for the earthquake, the tsunami was anomalously large, qualifying it as a "tsunami earthquake." Relocations using reported arrival times suggest an epicentral location near the trench. However, unusually for a tsunami earthquake the reported macroseismic intensities were higher than expected on Nias (6-7 EMS). We present a new study of this event based on macroseismic and tsunami observations culled from published literature and colonial press reports, as well as existing and newly acquired digitized or print seismograms. This multidisciplinary combination of macroseismic and seismological data with tsunami modelling has yielded new insights into this poorly understood but scientifically and societally important tsunami earthquake in the Indian Ocean. With these new data, we discriminated two large earthquakes within an hour of each other with clear differences in seismological character. The first, we interpret to be a tsunami earthquake with low levels of shaking (3-4 EMS). For this event, we estimate a seismic moment (M0) between 0.8 and 1.2 x1021 Nm (≈MW 7.9 to 8.0) based on digitized Wiechert records at Göttingen in the frequency band 6-8 mHz. These records document a regular growth of moment with period and suggest possibly larger values of M0 at even longer periods. The second earthquake caused damage on Nias (6-7 EMS). We estimate MS 6 ¾ - 7 for the second event based on seismograms from Manila, Mizusawa, and Osaka. We also

  10. Variation of radon concentration in Guwahati, Assam due to six earthquakes (Magnitude >5) occurred in N.E. India: a comparative study with baseline disparity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laskar, I.; Goswami, A.K.; Chetry, G.; Roy, U.C.; Mahanta, Kashyap; Chowdhury, Jyotirmoy Das; Laskar, J.

    2013-01-01

    Six earthquakes (M>5) have occurred in N.E. India within a time span of forty two days from August 11, 2009 to September 21, 2009. The minimum and maximum values of magnitudes of these earthquakes are 5.0 and 6.3 respectively in Richter Scale (RS). The origins of these earthquakes are reported to be Indo-Myanmar border, Sonitpur dist of Assam and neighboring Bhutan (USGS report). We, in our lab in Guwahati, Assam, have observed prominent radon peaks in the continuously monitored Alpha-GUARD, which can be regarded as precursor peaks for these earthquakes except the one that has origin in Bhutan. The post -effect of this earthquake was observed as a radon peak one day later. This may be due to the fact that the Bhutan tectonic plate and the tectonic plate on which Guwahati along with Shillong shield do not lie on the same plate. The extended part of the Kopili Fault has separated the Bhutan tectonic plate and makes the region more seismic. Continuous seven years GPS data analysis has given a remarkable depiction. The baseline analysis between IISC, Bangalore and some of our campaign mode GPS stations near Guwahati have made the picture clear. An analysis of available data is reported in this paper. (author)

  11. Mass determination of moment magnitudes M w and establishing the relationship between M w and M L for moderate and small Kamchatka earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakirov, I. R.; Gusev, A. A.; Guseva, E. M.; Pavlov, V. M.; Skorkina, A. A.

    2018-01-01

    The average relationship is established between the basic magnitude for the Kamchatka regional catalog, M L , and modern moment magnitude M w. The latter is firmly tied to the value of the source seismic moment M 0 which has a direct physical meaning. M L magnitude is not self-reliant but is obtained through the conversion of the traditional Fedotov's S-wave energy class, K S1,2 F68 . Installation of the digital seismographic network in Kamchatka in 2006-2010 permitted mass estimates of M 0 and M w to be obtained from the regional data. In this paper we outline a number of techniques to estimate M 0 for the Kamchatka earthquakes using the waveforms of regional stations, and then compare the obtained M w estimates with each other and with M L , based on several hundred earthquakes that took place in 2010-2014. On the average, for M w = 3.0-6.0, M w = M L -0.40; this relationship allows obtaining M w estimates (proxy- M w) for a large part of the regional earthquake catalog with M L = 3.4-6.4 ( M w = 3.0-6.0).

  12. The Napa (California, US) earthquake of 24 August 2014 (10.24 UT) Magnitude = 6.0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scotti, Oona

    2014-01-01

    This publication briefly presents the characteristics of an earthquake which occurred in California in August 2014, indicates some data recorded by local seismic stations, and gives a brief overview of human and economic damages. It analyses the geological location of the earthquake, recalls previous events and outlines the local seismic risk. After having noticed that there was no consequence for the closest nuclear power station (300 km away), it indicates lessons learned in terms of seismic event about a crack, in order to better assess the risk of surface failure

  13. Homogenization and implementation of a 3D regional velocity model in Mexico for its application in moment tensor inversion of intermediate-magnitude earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Cardozo, Félix; Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala; Caló, Marco

    2017-04-01

    Moment tensor inversions for intermediate and small earthquakes (M. < 4.5) are challenging as they principally excite relatively short period seismic waves that interact strongly with local heterogeneities. Incorporating detailed regional 3D velocity models permits obtaining realistic synthetic seismograms and recover the seismic source parameters these smaller events. Two 3D regional velocity models have recently been developed for Mexico, using surface waves and seismic noise tomography (Spica et al., 2016; Gaite et al., 2015), which could be used to model the waveforms of intermediate magnitud earthquakes in this region. Such models are parameterized as layered velocity profiles and for some of the profiles, the velocity difference between two layers are considerable. The "jump" in velocities between two layers is inconvenient for some methods and algorithms that calculate synthetic waveforms, in particular for the method that we are using, the spectral element method (SPECFEM3D GLOBE, Komatitsch y Tromp, 2000), when the mesh does not follow the layer boundaries. In order to make the velocity models more easily implementec in SPECFEM3D GLOBE it is neccesary to apply a homogenization algorithm (Capdeville et al., 2015) such that the (now anisotropic) layer velocities are smoothly varying with depth. In this work, we apply a homogenization algorithm to the regional velocity models in México for implementing them in SPECFEM3D GLOBE, calculate synthetic waveforms for intermediate-magnitude earthquakes in México and invert them for the seismic moment tensor.

  14. Stress Interactions Between the 1976 Magnitude 7.8 Tangshan Earthquake and Adjacent Fault Systems in Northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Z.; Lin, J.; Chen, Y. J.

    2004-12-01

    The 28 July 1976 ML = 7.8 Tangshan earthquake struck a highly populated metropolitan center in northern China and was one of the most devastating earthquakes in modern history. Its occurrence has significantly changed the Coulomb stresses on a complex network of strike-slip, normal, and thrust faults in the region, potentially heightened the odds of future earthquakes on some of these fault segments. We have conducted a detailed analysis of the 3D stress effects of the Tangshan earthquake on its neighboring faults, the relationship between stress transfer and aftershock locations, and the implications for future seismic hazard in the region. Available seismic and geodetic data, although limited, indicate that the Tangshan main shock sequence is composed of complex rupture on 2-3 fault segments. The dominant rupture mode is right-lateral strike-slip on two adjoining sub-segments that strike N5¡aE and N35¡aE, respectively. We calculated that the Tangshan main shock sequence has increased the Coulomb failure stress by more than 1 bar in the vicinity of the Lunanxian district to the east, where the largest aftershock (ML = 7.1) occurred 15 hours after the Tangshan main event. The second largest aftershock (ML = 6.8) occurred on the Ninghe fault to the southwest of the main rupture, in a transitional region between the calculated Coulomb stress increase and decrease. The majority of the ML > 5.0 aftershocks also occurred in areas of calculated Coulomb stress increase. Our analyses further indicate that the Coulomb stress on portions of other fault segments, including the Leting and Lulong fault to the east and Yejito fault to the north, may also have been increased. Thus it is critical to obtain estimates of earthquake repeat times on these and other tectonic faults and to acquire continuous GPS and space geodetic measurements. Investigation of stress interaction and earthquake triggering in northern China is not only highly societal relevant but also important for

  15. Factors associated with self-concept in adolescent survivors of an 8.0-magnitude earthquake in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Dongmei; Jiang, Xiaolian; Ho, Kit-Wan; Duan, Lijuan; Zhang, Weiqing

    2014-01-01

    Experiencing a major natural disaster is a stressful event that challenges survival and sense of self. Adolescents are undergoing rapid developmental change in self-concept, and their sense of self is particularly susceptible to such stressful events. Although many studies have investigated adolescent self-concept, few have examined self-concept in relation to experiencing a natural disaster. Following the Great Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, in 2008, this study aimed to (a) describe disaster experiences; (b) describe social support, coping, and self-support; and (c) identify disaster experiences, social support, and coping factors associated with self-concept of adolescent survivors 3 months after the earthquake. This was a large-scale cross-sectional study. A total of 1,976 adolescents living where the earthquake caused the most severe damage took part. The Tennessee Self-Concept Scale; Coping Styles Scale; and Internality, Powerful Others, and Chance Scales were used to assess self-concept, coping strategy, and locus of control, respectively. Sociodemographic characteristics, earthquake experiences, and social support were also obtained by self-report. Three months after the disaster, adolescent self-concept was generally positive. Locus of control centered on powerful others was the strongest predictor of total self-concept. The negative coping strategy, "abreacting," was a positive predictor of negative self-concept (self-criticism). Close attention to adolescents who use negative coping strategies and who tend to lack a sense of control is needed after major disaster events. Studies that examine long-term relationships between earthquake and other major disaster experiences and self-concept of adolescent survivors are needed.

  16. Fluid-faulting evolution in high definition: Connecting fault structure and frequency-magnitude variations during the 2014 Long Valley Caldera, California earthquake swarm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelly, David R.; Ellsworth, William L.; Hill, David P.

    2016-01-01

    An extended earthquake swarm occurred beneath southeastern Long Valley Caldera between May and November 2014, culminating in three magnitude 3.5 earthquakes and 1145 cataloged events on 26 September alone. The swarm produced the most prolific seismicity in the caldera since a major unrest episode in 1997-1998. To gain insight into the physics controlling swarm evolution, we used large-scale cross-correlation between waveforms of cataloged earthquakes and continuous data, producing precise locations for 8494 events, more than 2.5 times the routine catalog. We also estimated magnitudes for 18,634 events (~5.5 times the routine catalog), using a principal component fit to measure waveform amplitudes relative to cataloged events. This expanded and relocated catalog reveals multiple episodes of pronounced hypocenter expansion and migration on a collection of neighboring faults. Given the rapid migration and alignment of hypocenters on narrow faults, we infer that activity was initiated and sustained by an evolving fluid pressure transient with a low-viscosity fluid, likely composed primarily of water and CO2 exsolved from underlying magma. Although both updip and downdip migration were observed within the swarm, downdip activity ceased shortly after activation, while updip activity persisted for weeks at moderate levels. Strongly migrating, single-fault episodes within the larger swarm exhibited a higher proportion of larger earthquakes (lower Gutenberg-Richter b value), which may have been facilitated by fluid pressure confined in two dimensions within the fault zone. In contrast, the later swarm activity occurred on an increasingly diffuse collection of smaller faults, with a much higher b value.

  17. Determination of focal mechanisms of intermediate-magnitude earthquakes in Mexico, based on Greens functions calculated for a 3D Earth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigo Rodríguez Cardozo, Félix; Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala

    2015-04-01

    One important ingredient in the study of the complex active tectonics in Mexico is the analysis of earthquake focal mechanisms, or the seismic moment tensor. They can be determined trough the calculation of Green functions and subsequent inversion for moment-tensor parameters. However, this calculation is gets progressively more difficult as the magnitude of the earthquakes decreases. Large earthquakes excite waves of longer periods that interact weakly with laterally heterogeneities in the crust. For these earthquakes, using 1D velocity models to compute the Greens fucntions works well. The opposite occurs for smaller and intermediate sized events, where the relatively shorter periods excited interact strongly with lateral heterogeneities in the crust and upper mantle and requires more specific or regional 3D models. In this study, we calculate Greens functions for earthquakes in Mexico using a laterally heterogeneous seismic wave speed model, comprised of mantle model S362ANI (Kustowski et al 2008) and crustal model CRUST 2.0 (Bassin et al 1990). Subsequently, we invert the observed seismograms for the seismic moment tensor using a method developed by Liu et al (2004) an implemented by Óscar de La Vega (2014) for earthquakes in Mexico. By following a brute force approach, in which we include all observed Rayleigh and Love waves of the Mexican National Seismic Network (Servicio Sismológico Naciona, SSN), we obtain reliable focal mechanisms for events that excite a considerable amount of low frequency waves (Mw > 4.8). However, we are not able to consistently estimate focal mechanisms for smaller events using this method, due to high noise levels in many of the records. Excluding the noisy records, or noisy parts of the records manually, requires interactive edition of the data, using an efficient tool for the editing. Therefore, we developed a graphical user interface (GUI), based on python and the python library ObsPy, that allows the edition of observed and

  18. 2011 Van earthquake (Mw=7.2) aftershocks using the source spectra an approach to real-time estimation of moment magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meral Ozel, N.; Kusmezer, A.

    2012-04-01

    The Converging Grid Search (CGS) algorithm was tested on broadband waveforms data from large aftershocks of the October 23, Van earthquake with the hypocentral distances within 0-300 km over a magnitude range of 4.0≤M≤5.6.Observed displacement spectra were virtually well adapted to the Brune's source model in the whole frequency range for many waveforms.The estimated Mw solutions were compared to global CMT catalogue solutions, and were seen to be in good agreement. To estimate Mw from a shear-wave displacement spectrum, an automatic routine named as CGS was applied to attempt to test and develop a method for stable moment magnitude estimation to be used as a real-time operation.The spectra were corrected for average an elastic attenuation and geometrical spreading factors and then were scaled to compute moment at the long period asymptote where the spectral plateau for 0 Hz is flat.For this aim, an automatic procedure was utilized: 1)calculating the displacement spectra for vertical components at a given station, 2)estimating corner frequency and seismic moment using CGS which is based on minimizing the differences between observed and synthetic source spectra, 3)calculating moment magnitude from seismic moment for each station separately, and then are averaged to give the mean values of each event. The best fitting iteration of these parameters was obtained after a few seconds. The noise spectrum was also computed to suggest a comparison between signals to noise ratio before performing the inversion.Weak events with low SNR were excluded from the computations. The method examined on the Van earthquake aftershock dataset proved that it is applicable to have stable and reliable estimates of magnitude for the routine processing within a few seconds from the initial P wave detection though the location estimation is necessary.This allows a fast determination of Mw magnitude and assist to measure physical quantities of the source available for the real time

  19. Deprem Magnitüdleri İçin Tekrarlanma Yıllarının Elde Edilmesi : Marmara Bölgesi Örneği = Obtaining the Return Period of Earthquake Magnitudes : As an Example Marmara Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reşat KASAP

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, statistical analysis have been done for 447 earthquake occurrences data, between north (39.500-41.500 and east (26.000-32.500 coordinates in the Marmara Region from 1900 to 2000. It has been found that the probability density and distribution functions of magnitude random variable, and then the return period of earthquakes of various magnitudes have been found.

  20. Parameters and a magnitude moment relationship from small earthquakes observed during hydraulic fracturing experiments in crystalline rocks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pearson, C.

    1982-04-01

    Using source parameters estimated from seismic spectra and magnitudes estimated from coda lengths, we demonstrate that the log-linear relationship between moment and magnitude holds for events with magnitudes as low as -6. Using, as a data set, events induced by hydraulic fracturing experiments at the Fenton Hill, New Mexico, Hot Dry Rock (HDR) geothermal site, we find that the relationship between magnitude M and seismic moment (Mo) is log (Mo) = 17.27+0.77 M Moreover, the linear relationship between seismic moment and source radius (r) holds for the Fenton Hill microearthquakes. Analyses of the Fenton Hill data yield the following relationship. log (r) = 2.28+0.19 log (Mo)

  1. Sensitivity to Regional Earthquake Triggering and Magnitude-Frequency Characteristics of Microseismicity Detected via Matched-Filter Analysis, Central Southern Alps, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boese, C. M.; Townend, J.; Chamberlain, C. J.; Warren-Smith, E.

    2016-12-01

    Microseismicity recorded since 2008 by the Southern Alps Microseismicity Borehole Array (SAMBA) and other predominantly short-period seismic networks deployed in the central Southern Alps, New Zealand, reveals distinctive patterns of triggering in response to regional seismicity (magnitudes larger than 5, epicentral distances of 100-500 km). Using matched-filter detection methods implemented in the EQcorrscan package (Chamberlain et al., in prep.), we analyze microseismicity occurring in several geographically distinct swarms in order to examine the responses of specific microearthquake sources to earthquakes of different sizes occurring at different distances and azimuths. The swarms exhibit complex responses to regional seismicity which reveal that microearthquake triggering in these cases involves a combination of extrinsic factors (related to the dynamic stresses produced by the regional earthquake) and intrinsic factors (controlled by the local state of stress and possibly by hydrogeological processes). We find also that the microearthquakes detected by individual templates have Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency characteristics. Since the detected events, by design, have very similar hypocentres and focal mechanisms, the observed scaling pertains to a restricted set of fault planes.

  2. Active stress from earthquake focal mechanisms along the Padan-Adriatic side of the Northern Apennines (Italy), with considerations on stress magnitudes and pore-fluid pressures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boncio, Paolo; Bracone, Vito

    2009-10-01

    The active tectonic regime along the outer Northern Apennines (Padan-Adriatic area) is a matter of debate. We analyse the active tectonic regime by systematically inverting earthquake focal mechanisms in terms of their driving stress field, comparing two different stress inversion methods. Earthquakes within the area often deviate from Andersonian conditions, being characterized by reverse or transpressional slip on high-angle faults even if the regime is almost purely thrust faulting (e.g. Reggio Emilia 1996 and Faenza 2000 earthquakes). We analyse the stress conditions at faulting for the Reggio Emilia and Faenza earthquakes in order to infer the stress magnitudes and the possible role of fluid pressures. The stress analysis defines a consistent pattern of sub-horizontal active deviatoric compression arranged nearly perpendicular to the eastern front of the Padan-Adriatic fold-and-thrust system, independent of the stress inversion method used. The results are consistent with active compression operating within the Padan-Adriatic belt. The stress field is thrust faulting (sub-vertical σ3), except for the Cesena-Forlì and Ancona areas, where a strike-slip regime (sub-vertical or steeply-plunging σ2) operates. The strike-slip regimes are interpreted as being caused by the superposition of local tensional stresses due to oroclinal bending (i.e. rotations of the belt about vertical axes) on the regional compressional stress field. Kinematic complexities characterize the 1996 Reggio Emilia seismic sequence. The distribution of these complexities is not random, suggesting that they are due to local variations of the regional stress field within the unfaulted rocks surrounding the coseismic rupture. The stress conditions at faulting for the Reggio Emilia 1996 and Faenza 2000 earthquakes, coupled with the observation that seismicity in the Padan-Adriatic area often occurs in swarms, suggest that high pore-fluid pressures (Pf ≥ 70% of the lithostatic load) operate

  3. Accounts of damage from historical earthquakes in the northeastern Caribbean to aid in the determination of their location and intensity magnitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Claudia H.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Bakun, William H.

    2012-01-01

    Earthquakes have been documented in the northeastern Caribbean since the arrival of Columbus to the Americas; written accounts of these felt earthquakes exist in various parts of the world. To better understand the earthquake cycle in the Caribbean, the records of earthquakes in earlier catalogs and historical documents from various archives, which are now available online, were critically examined. This report updates previous catalogs of earthquakes, in particular earthquakes in Hispaniola, to give to the public the most comprehensive documentation of earthquake damage and to further the understanding of the earthquake cycle in the northeastern Caribbean.

  4. Natural disaster management: experience of an academic institution after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordero-Reyes, A M; Palacios, I; Ramia, D; West, R; Valencia, M; Ramia, N; Egas, D; Rodas, P; Bahamonde, M; Grunauer, M

    2017-03-01

    This case study describes the implementation of an academic institution's disaster management plan. Case study. USFQ's Medical School developed a six-phase disaster relief plan consisting of: induction, establishing a base camp, crisis management and mental health aid, creation of multidisciplinary teams and multi-agency teams, and reconstruction. Each phase uses a community-oriented approach to foster survivor autonomy and recovery. Our methodology facilitated the successful implementation of multidisciplinary interventions to manage the earthquake's aftermath on the personal, community and regional levels, treated and prevented psychological and physical morbidity among survivors and promoted healthy living conditions and independence. A multidisciplinary response team that addresses medical needs, mental health, education, food, nutrition and sanitation is highly effective in contributing to timely, effective relief efforts. The short- and long-term solutions we describe could be applicable to other academic centres' interventions in future disaster scenarios around the world. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Determination of Magnitude and Location of Earthquakes With Only Five Seconds of a Three Component Broadband Sensor Signal Located Near Bogota, Colombia Using Support Vector Machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa Gutierrez, L. H.; Vargas Jiménez, C. A.; Niño Vasquez, L. F., Sr.

    2017-12-01

    Early warning generation for earthquakes that occur near the city of Bogotá-Colombia is extremely important. Using the information of a broadband and three component station, property of the Servicio Geológico Colombiano (SGC), called El Rosal, which is located very near the city, we developed a model based on support vector machines techniques (SVM), with a standardized polynomial kernel, using as descriptors or input data, seismic signal features, complemented by the hipocentral parameters calculated for each one of the reported events. The model was trained and evaluated by cross correlation and was used to predict, with only five seconds of signal, the magnitude and location of a seismic event. With the proposed model we calculated local magnitude with an accuracy of 0.19 units of magnitude, epicentral distance with an accuracy of about 11 k, depth with a precision of approximately 40 km and the azimuth of arrival with a precision of 45°. This research made a significant contribution for early warning generation for the country, in particular for the city of Bogotá. These models will be implemented in the future in the "Red Sismológica de la Sabana de Bogotá y sus Alrededores (RSSB)" which belongs to the Universidad Nacional de Colombia.

  6. Teleseismic magnitude relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Båth

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Using available sets of magnitude determinations, primarily from Uppsala seismological bulletin, various extensions are made of the Zurich magnitude recommendations of 1967. Thus, body-wave magnitude (m and surface-wave magnitudes (M are related to each other for 12 different earthquake regions as well as world-wide. Depth corrections for M are derived for all focal depths. Formulas are developed which permit calculation of M also from vertical component long-period seismographs. Body-wave magnitudes from broad-band and narrow-band short-period seismographs are compared and relations deduced. Applications are made both to underground nuclear explosions and to earthquakes. The possibilities of explosion-earthquake discrimination on the basis of magnitudes are examined, as well as the determination of explosive yield from magnitudes. For earthquakes, relations between magnitudes of main earthquakes and largest aftershocks are investigated. A world-wide station network for more homogeneous magnitude determinations is suggested in order to provide the necessary reference system.

  7. Development of a Standardized Methodology for the Use of COSI-Corr Sub-Pixel Image Correlation to Determine Surface Deformation Patterns in Large Magnitude Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milliner, C. W. D.; Dolan, J. F.; Hollingsworth, J.; Leprince, S.; Ayoub, F.

    2014-12-01

    Coseismic surface deformation is typically measured in the field by geologists and with a range of geophysical methods such as InSAR, LiDAR and GPS. Current methods, however, either fail to capture the near-field coseismic surface deformation pattern where vital information is needed, or lack pre-event data. We develop a standardized and reproducible methodology to fully constrain the surface, near-field, coseismic deformation pattern in high resolution using aerial photography. We apply our methodology using the program COSI-corr to successfully cross-correlate pairs of aerial, optical imagery before and after the 1992, Mw 7.3 Landers and 1999, Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes. This technique allows measurement of the coseismic slip distribution and magnitude and width of off-fault deformation with sub-pixel precision. This technique can be applied in a cost effective manner for recent and historic earthquakes using archive aerial imagery. We also use synthetic tests to constrain and correct for the bias imposed on the result due to use of a sliding window during correlation. Correcting for artificial smearing of the tectonic signal allows us to robustly measure the fault zone width along a surface rupture. Furthermore, the synthetic tests have constrained for the first time the measurement precision and accuracy of estimated fault displacements and fault-zone width. Our methodology provides the unique ability to robustly understand the kinematics of surface faulting while at the same time accounting for both off-fault deformation and measurement biases that typically complicates such data. For both earthquakes we find that our displacement measurements derived from cross-correlation are systematically larger than the field displacement measurements, indicating the presence of off-fault deformation. We show that the Landers and Hector Mine earthquake accommodated 46% and 38% of displacement away from the main primary rupture as off-fault deformation, over a mean

  8. New Frontiers in Characterization of Sub-Catalog Microseismicity: Utilizing Inter-Event Waveform Cross Correlation for Estimating Precise Locations, Magnitudes, and Focal Mechanisms of Tiny Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellsworth, W. L.; Shelly, D. R.; Hardebeck, J.; Hill, D. P.

    2017-12-01

    Microseismicity often conveys the most direct information about active processes in the earth's subsurface. However, routine network processing typically leaves most earthquakes uncharacterized. These "sub-catalog" events can provide critical clues to ongoing processes in the source region. To address this issue, we have developed waveform-based processing that leverages the existing routine catalog of earthquakes to detect and characterize "sub-catalog" events (those absent in routine catalogs). By correlating waveforms of cataloged events with the continuous data stream, we 1) identify events with similar waveform signatures in the continuous data across multiple stations, 2) precisely measure relative time lags across these stations for both P- and S-wave time windows, and 3) estimate the relative polarity between events by the sign of the peak absolute value correlations and its height above the secondary peak. When combined, these inter-event comparisons yield robust measurements, which enable sensitive event detection, relative relocation, and relative magnitude estimation. The most recent addition, focal mechanisms derived from correlation-based relative polarities, addresses a significant shortcoming in microseismicity analyses (see Shelly et al., JGR, 2016). Depending on the application, we can characterize 2-10 times as many events as included in the initial catalog. This technique is particularly well suited for compact zones of active seismicity such as seismic swarms. Application to a 2014 swarm in Long Valley Caldera, California, illuminates complex patterns of faulting that would have otherwise remained obscured. The prevalence of such features in other environments remains an important, as yet unresolved, question.

  9. Tohoku's earthquake of Friday March 11, 2011 (5:46 UT), magnitude 9.0, off Honshu island (Japan); Seisme de Tohoku au large de l'Ile d'Honshu (Japon) du vendredi 11 mars 2011 (5h46 TU) Magnitude = 9,0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    On Friday March 11, 2011, at 5:46 UT (2:46 PM local time), a magnitude 9.0 earthquake took place at 80 km east of Honshu island (Japan). The earthquake generated a tsunami which led to the loss of the cooling systems of the Fukushima Dai-ichi and Fukushima Daini power plants. This paper describes the seismo-tectonic and historical seismic context of the Japan archipelago and the first analyses of the Tohoku earthquake impact: magnitudes of first shock and of aftershocks, impact on nuclear facilities (maximum acceleration values detected with respect to design basis values, subsidence of coastal areas and submersion of power plant platforms). (J.S.)

  10. Change in failure stress on the southern san andreas fault system caused by the 1992 magnitude = 7.4 landers earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R S; King, G C; Lin, J

    1992-11-20

    The 28 June Landers earthquake brought the San Andreas fault significantly closer to failure near San Bernardino, a site that has not sustained a large shock since 1812. Stress also increased on the San Jacinto fault near San Bernardino and on the San Andreas fault southeast of Palm Springs. Unless creep or moderate earthquakes relieve these stress changes, the next great earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault is likely to be advanced by one to two decades. In contrast, stress on the San Andreas north of Los Angeles dropped, potentially delaying the next great earthquake there by 2 to 10 years.

  11. Frequency–magnitude distribution of -3.7 < M(subW) < 1 mining-induced earthquakes around a mining front and b value invariance with post-blast time

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naoi, M

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Geophysics Frequency–Magnitude Distribution of -3.7 B MW B 1 mining-induced earthquakes around a mining front and b value invariance with post-blast time Makoto Naoi,1 Masao Nakatani,1 Shigeki Horiuchi,2 Yasuo Yabe,3 Joachim Philipp,4 Thabang Kgarume... Ogasawara 11 1 Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0032, Japan. E-mail: naoi@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp 2 Home Seismometer Corp., 4-36, Uenohara, Shirakawa, Fukushima 961-0026, Japan. 3 Research Center...

  12. Major earthquake of Friday March 11, 2011, magnitude 8.9 at 5:46 UT, off Honshu island (Japan); Seisme majeur au large de l'Ile d'Honshu (Japon) du vendredi 11 mars 2011 Magnitude = 8,9 a 5h46 (TU)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    On Friday March 11, 2011, at 5:46 UT (2:46 PM local time), a magnitude 8.9 earthquake took place at 80 km east of Honshu island (Japan). The earthquake affected a large part of the Honshu territory and led to the automatic emergency shutdown of all nuclear power plants of the east coast. This paper recalls first the seismo-tectonic and historical seismic context of the Japan archipelago and the first analyses of the Tohoku earthquake impact on nuclear facilities. At the time of publication of this information report, no radioactive release in the environment and no anomaly at the Tokai-Mura and Rokkasho-Mura sites were mentioned. However, the evacuation of populations in a 3 to 10 km area around the Fukushima-Dai-ichi power plant had been ordered by the Governor as preventive measure, which made one think that the situation at this specific site was particularly worrying. (J.S.)

  13. Focal mechanisms and moment magnitudes of micro-earthquakes in central Brazil by waveform inversion with quality assessment and inference of the local stress field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Juraci; Barros, Lucas Vieira; Zahradník, Jiří

    2016-11-01

    This paper documents an investigation on the use of full waveform inversion to retrieve focal mechanisms of 11 micro-earthquakes (Mw 0.8 to 1.4). The events represent aftershocks of a 5.0 mb earthquake that occurred on October 8, 2010 close to the city of Mara Rosa in the state of Goiás, Brazil. The main contribution of the work lies in demonstrating the feasibility of waveform inversion of such weak events. The inversion was made possible thanks to recordings available at 8 temporary seismic stations in epicentral distances of less than 8 km, at which waveforms can be successfully modeled at relatively high frequencies (1.5-2.0 Hz). On average, the fault-plane solutions obtained are in agreement with a composite focal mechanism previously calculated from first-motion polarities. They also agree with the fault geometry inferred from precise relocation of the Mara Rosa aftershock sequence. The focal mechanisms provide an estimate of the local stress field. This paper serves as a pilot study for similar investigations in intraplate regions where the stress-field investigations are difficult due to rare earthquake occurrences, and where weak events must be studied with a detailed quality assessment.

  14. Earthquakes, November-December 1977

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    Two major earthquakes occurred in the last 2 months of the year. A magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck San Juan Province, Argentina, on November 23, causing fatalities and damage. The second major earthquake was a magnitude 7.0 in the Bonin Islands region, an unpopulated area. On December 19, Iran experienced a destructive earthquake, which killed over 500.

  15. 3D Ground-Motion Simulations for Magnitude 9 Earthquakes on the Cascadia Megathrust: Sedimentary Basin Amplification, Rupture Directivity, and Ground-Motion Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, A. D.; Wirth, E. A.; Marafi, N.; Vidale, J. E.; Stephenson, W. J.

    2017-12-01

    We have produced broadband (0-10 Hz) synthetic seismograms for Mw 9 earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone by combining synthetics from 3D finite-difference simulations at low frequencies (≤ 1 Hz) and stochastic synthetics at high frequencies (≥ 1 Hz). These synthetic ground motions are being used to evaluate building response, liquefaction, and landslides, as part of the M9 Project of the University of Washington, in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey. The kinematic rupture model is composed of high stress drop sub-events with Mw 8, similar to those observed in the Mw 9.0 Tohoku, Japan and Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquakes, superimposed on large background slip with lower slip velocities. The 3D velocity model is based on active and passive-source seismic tomography studies, seismic refraction and reflection surveys, and geologic constraints. The Seattle basin portion of the model has been validated by simulating ground motions from local earthquakes. We have completed 50 3D simulations of Mw 9 earthquakes using a variety of hypocenters, slip distributions, sub-event locations, down-dip limits of rupture, and other parameters. For sites not in deep sedimentary basins, the response spectra of the synthetics for 0.1-6.0 s are similar, on average, to the values from the BC Hydro ground motion prediction equations (GMPE). For periods of 7-10 s, the synthetic response spectra exceed these GMPE, partially due to the shallow dip of the plate interface. We find large amplification factors of 2-5 for response spectra at periods of 1-10 s for locations in the Seattle and Tacoma basins, relative to sites outside the basins. This amplification depends on the direction of incoming waves and rupture directivity. The basin amplification is caused by surface waves generated at basin edges from incoming S-waves, as well as amplification and focusing of S-waves and surface waves by the 3D basin structure. The inter-event standard deviation of response spectral

  16. Generalized Free-Surface Effect and Random Vibration Theory: a new tool for computing moment magnitudes of small earthquakes using borehole data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malagnini, Luca; Dreger, Douglas S.

    2016-07-01

    Although optimal, computing the moment tensor solution is not always a viable option for the calculation of the size of an earthquake, especially for small events (say, below Mw 2.0). Here we show an alternative approach to the calculation of the moment-rate spectra of small earthquakes, and thus of their scalar moments, that uses a network-based calibration of crustal wave propagation. The method works best when applied to a relatively small crustal volume containing both the seismic sources and the recording sites. In this study we present the calibration of the crustal volume monitored by the High-Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) at Parkfield. After the quantification of the attenuation parameters within the crustal volume under investigation, we proceed to the spectral correction of the observed Fourier amplitude spectra for the 100 largest events in our data set. Multiple estimates of seismic moment for the all events (1811 events total) are obtained by calculating the ratio of rms-averaged spectral quantities based on the peak values of the ground velocity in the time domain, as they are observed in narrowband-filtered time-series. The mathematical operations allowing the described spectral ratios are obtained from Random Vibration Theory (RVT). Due to the optimal conditions of the HRSN, in terms of signal-to-noise ratios, our network-based calibration allows the accurate calculation of seismic moments down to Mw < 0. However, because the HRSN is equipped only with borehole instruments, we define a frequency-dependent Generalized Free-Surface Effect (GFSE), to be used instead of the usual free-surface constant F = 2. Our spectral corrections at Parkfield need a different GFSE for each side of the SAF, which can be quantified by means of the analysis of synthetic seismograms. The importance of the GFSE of borehole instruments increases for decreasing earthquake's size because for smaller earthquakes the bandwidth available

  17. Understanding Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Amanda; Gray, Ron

    2018-01-01

    December 26, 2004 was one of the deadliest days in modern history, when a 9.3 magnitude earthquake--the third largest ever recorded--struck off the coast of Sumatra in Indonesia (National Centers for Environmental Information 2014). The massive quake lasted at least 10 minutes and devastated the Indian Ocean. The quake displaced an estimated…

  18. Moment Magnitude discussion in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weginger, Stefan; Jia, Yan; Hausmann, Helmut; Lenhardt, Wolfgang

    2017-04-01

    We implemented and tested the Moment Magnitude estimation „dbmw" from the University of Trieste in our Antelope near real-time System. It is used to get a fast Moment Magnitude solutions and Ground Motion Parameter (PGA, PGV, PSA 0.3, PSA 1.0 and PSA 3.0) to calculate Shake and Interactive maps. A Moment Magnitude Catalogue was generated and compared with the Austrian Earthquake Catalogue and all available Magnitude solution of the neighbouring agencies. Relations of Mw to Ml and Ground Motion to Intensity are presented.

  19. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  20. The Earth's revolution, Moon phase, Syzygy astronomy events, their effect in disturbances of the Earth's geomagnetic field, and the ``Magnetic Storm Double Time Method'' for predicting the occurrence time, magnitude and epicenter location of earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, I. W.

    2003-04-01

    An increasing number of geomagnetic observation stations were established and operated in China since 1966 to the 1980s (and until present), effectively covering a large area of the nation. Close relativity between magnetic storms and earthquakes, as well as close relativity between the regional differences of magnetic disturbance recorded by these stations and the epicenter location of earthquakes, was discovered and observed by Tie-zheng Zhang during1966 - 1969. On such basis during 1969/1970, Zhang developed the “Magnetic Storm Double Time Method” for predicting the occurrence time, magnitude and epicenter location of EQs. By this method,.Zhang successfully predicted the Yunnan Tonghai Ms7.7 EQ Jan. 5, 1970 (occurrence date only), the Bohai ML5.2 EQ, Feb. 12, 1970 and other EQs, including the Haicheng Ms7.3 EQ Feb. 4, 1975, and the Tangshan Ms7.8 EQ July 28, 1976. On the basis of this method, Z.P. Shen developed the “Geomagnetic Deflection Angle Double Time Method” in 1970, and later developed the “Magnetic Storm - Moon Phase Double Time Method” in 1990s. With this method, Shen is able to predict the occurrence dates of most of the strongest EQs Ms37.5 on the Earth since 1991. Zhang also discovered that strong EQs often correspond with a number of sets of magnetic storms. Z.Q. Ren discovered close relativity exists between Syzygy astronomy events and such sets of magnetic storm as well as the occurrence dates of strong EQs. Computerized calculation of historical magnetic storm and EQ data proves the effectiveness of this method. Over 3,000 days of geomagnetic isoline images are computer processed by the Author from over 400,000 geomagnetic field data obtained by Zhang from over 100 geomagnetic observation stations during 1966 - 1984. Clear relativity is shown between the Earth’s revolution, Moon phases, Syzygy astronomy events related to the Earth, and their disturbance effect on the Earth’s geomagnetic field and the occurrence of EQs.

  1. Earthquake at 40 feet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, G. J.

    1976-01-01

    The earthquake that struck the island of Guam on November 1, 1975, at 11:17 a.m had many unique aspects-not the least of which was the experience of an earthquake of 6.25 Richter magnitude while at 40 feet. My wife Bonnie, a fellow diver, Greg Guzman, and I were diving at Gabgab Beach in teh outer harbor of Apra Harbor, engaged in underwater phoyography when the earthquake struck. 

  2. Earthquake forecasting and warning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rikitake, T.

    1983-01-01

    This review briefly describes two other books on the same subject either written or partially written by Rikitake. In this book, the status of earthquake prediction efforts in Japan, China, the Soviet Union, and the United States are updated. An overview of some of the organizational, legal, and societal aspects of earthquake prediction in these countries is presented, and scientific findings of precursory phenomena are included. A summary of circumstances surrounding the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, the 1978 Tangshan earthquake, and the 1976 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake (all magnitudes = 7.0) in China and the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake in Japan is presented. This book fails to comprehensively summarize recent advances in earthquake prediction research.

  3. Earthquake hazard assessment and small earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, L.

    1987-01-01

    The significance of small earthquakes and their treatment in nuclear power plant seismic hazard assessment is an issue which has received increased attention over the past few years. In probabilistic studies, sensitivity studies showed that the choice of the lower bound magnitude used in hazard calculations can have a larger than expected effect on the calculated hazard. Of particular interest is the fact that some of the difference in seismic hazard calculations between the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) studies can be attributed to this choice. The LLNL study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 3.75 while the EPRI study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 5.0. The magnitudes used were assumed to be body wave magnitudes or their equivalents. In deterministic studies recent ground motion recordings of small to moderate earthquakes at or near nuclear power plants have shown that the high frequencies of design response spectra may be exceeded. These exceedances became important issues in the licensing of the Summer and Perry nuclear power plants. At various times in the past particular concerns have been raised with respect to the hazard and damage potential of small to moderate earthquakes occurring at very shallow depths. In this paper a closer look is taken at these issues. Emphasis is given to the impact of lower bound magnitude on probabilistic hazard calculations and the historical record of damage from small to moderate earthquakes. Limited recommendations are made as to how these issues should be viewed

  4. Magnitude conversion to unified moment magnitude using orthogonal regression relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Ranjit; Wason, H. R.; Sharma, M. L.

    2012-05-01

    Homogenization of earthquake catalog being a pre-requisite for seismic hazard assessment requires region based magnitude conversion relationships. Linear Standard Regression (SR) relations fail when both the magnitudes have measurement errors. To accomplish homogenization, techniques like Orthogonal Standard Regression (OSR) are thus used. In this paper a technique is proposed for using such OSR for preparation of homogenized earthquake catalog in moment magnitude Mw. For derivation of orthogonal regression relation between mb and Mw, a data set consisting of 171 events with observed body wave magnitudes (mb,obs) and moment magnitude (Mw,obs) values has been taken from ISC and GCMT databases for Northeast India and adjoining region for the period 1978-2006. Firstly, an OSR relation given below has been developed using mb,obs and Mw,obs values corresponding to 150 events from this data set. M=1.3(±0.004)m-1.4(±0.130), where mb,proxy are body wave magnitude values of the points on the OSR line given by the orthogonality criterion, for observed (mb,obs, Mw,obs) points. A linear relation is then developed between these 150 mb,obs values and corresponding mb,proxy values given by the OSR line using orthogonality criterion. The relation obtained is m=0.878(±0.03)m+0.653(±0.15). The accuracy of the above procedure has been checked with the rest of the data i.e., 21 events values. The improvement in the correlation coefficient value between mb,obs and Mw estimated using the proposed procedure compared to the correlation coefficient value between mb,obs and Mw,obs shows the advantage of OSR relationship for homogenization. The OSR procedure developed in this study can be used to homogenize any catalog containing various magnitudes (e.g., ML, mb, MS) with measurement errors, by their conversion to unified moment magnitude Mw. The proposed procedure also remains valid in case the magnitudes have measurement errors of different orders, i.e. the error variance ratio is

  5. The severity of an earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1997-01-01

    The severity of an earthquake can be expressed in terms of both intensity and magnitude. However, the two terms are quite different, and they are often confused. Intensity is based on the observed effects of ground shaking on people, buildings, and natural features. It varies from place to place within the disturbed region depending on the location of the observer with respect to the earthquake epicenter. Magnitude is related to the amount of seismic energy released at the hypocenter of the earthquake. It is based on the amplitude of the earthquake waves recorded on instruments

  6. Precisely locating the Klamath Falls, Oregon, earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qamar, A.; Meagher, K.L.

    1993-01-01

    The Klamath Falls earthquakes on September 20, 1993, were the largest earthquakes centered in Oregon in more than 50 yrs. Only the magnitude 5.75 Milton-Freewater earthquake in 1936, which was centered near the Oregon-Washington border and felt in an area of about 190,000 sq km, compares in size with the recent Klamath Falls earthquakes. Although the 1993 earthquakes surprised many local residents, geologists have long recognized that strong earthquakes may occur along potentially active faults that pass through the Klamath Falls area. These faults are geologically related to similar faults in Oregon, Idaho, and Nevada that occasionally spawn strong earthquakes

  7. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

  8. Passive seismic monitoring at the ketzin CCS site -Magnitude estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paap, B.F.; Steeghs, T.P.H.

    2014-01-01

    In order to allow quantification of the strength of local micro-seismic events recorded at the CCS pilot site in Ketzin in terms of local magnitude, earthquake data recorded by standardized seismometers were used. Earthquakes were selected that occurred in Poland and Czech Republic and that were

  9. The Pocatello Valley, Idaho, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, A. M.; Langer, C.J.; Bucknam, R.C.

    1975-01-01

    A Richter magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred at 8:31 p.m mountain daylight time on March 27, 1975, near the Utah-Idaho border in Pocatello Valley. The epicenter of the main shock was located at 42.094° N, 112.478° W, and had a focal depth of 5.5 km. This earthquake was the largest in the continental United States since the destructive San Fernando earthquake of February 1971. The main shock was preceded by a magnitude 4.5 foreshock on March 26. 

  10. Sense of Community and Depressive Symptoms among Older Earthquake Survivors Following the 2008 Earthquake in Chengdu China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yawen; Sun, Fei; He, Xusong; Chan, Kin Sun

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the impact of an earthquake as well as the role of sense of community as a protective factor against depressive symptoms among older Chinese adults who survived an 8.0 magnitude earthquake in 2008. A household survey of a random sample was conducted 3 months after the earthquake and 298 older earthquake survivors participated…

  11. Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

  12. Sun, Moon and Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolvankar, V. G.

    2013-12-01

    During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas [typically 1000km X1000km] of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun's position in terms of universal time [GMT] shows links to the sum of EMD [longitude of earthquake location - longitude of Moon's foot print on earth] and SEM [Sun-Earth-Moon angle]. This paper provides the details of this relationship after studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that over 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun's position [GMT] and [EMD+SEM]. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the factor [EMD+SEM] changes through 360 degree, and plotting these two variables for earthquakes from different small regions reveals a simple 45 degree straight-line relationship between them. This relationship was tested for all earthquakes and earthquake sequences for magnitude 2.0 and above. This study conclusively proves how Sun and the Moon govern all earthquakes. Fig. 12 [A+B]. The left-hand figure provides a 24-hour plot for forty consecutive days including the main event (00:58:23 on 26.12.2004, Lat.+3.30, Long+95.980, Mb 9.0, EQ count 376). The right-hand figure provides an earthquake plot for (EMD+SEM) vs GMT timings for the same data. All the 376 events including the main event faithfully follow the straight-line curve.

  13. Earthquake prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, P.L.

    1978-01-01

    The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

  14. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  15. The 1976 Tangshan earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Wang

    1979-01-01

    The Tangshan earthquake of 1976 was one of the largest earthquakes in recent years. It occurred on July 28 at 3:42 a.m, Beijing (Peking) local time, and had magnitude 7.8, focal depth of 15 kilometers, and an epicentral intensity of XI on the New Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale; it caused serious damage and loss of life in this densely populated industrial city. Now, with the help of people from all over China, the city of Tangshan is being rebuild. 

  16. The Klamath Falls, Oregon, earthquakes on September 20, 1993

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brantley, S.R.

    1993-01-01

    The strongest earthquake to strike Oregon in more than 50 yrs struck the southern part of the State on September 20, 1993. These shocks, a magnitude 5.9 earthquake at 8:28pm and a magnitude 6.0 earthquake at 10:45pm, were the opening salvo in a swarm of earthquakes that continued for more than three months. During this period, several thousand aftershocks, many strong enough to be felt, were recorded by seismographs.

  17. OMG Earthquake! Can Twitter improve earthquake response?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information

  18. Modeling, Forecasting and Mitigating Extreme Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Le Mouel, J.; Soloviev, A.

    2012-12-01

    Recent earthquake disasters highlighted the importance of multi- and trans-disciplinary studies of earthquake risk. A major component of earthquake disaster risk analysis is hazards research, which should cover not only a traditional assessment of ground shaking, but also studies of geodetic, paleoseismic, geomagnetic, hydrological, deep drilling and other geophysical and geological observations together with comprehensive modeling of earthquakes and forecasting extreme events. Extreme earthquakes (large magnitude and rare events) are manifestations of complex behavior of the lithosphere structured as a hierarchical system of blocks of different sizes. Understanding of physics and dynamics of the extreme events comes from observations, measurements and modeling. A quantitative approach to simulate earthquakes in models of fault dynamics will be presented. The models reproduce basic features of the observed seismicity (e.g., the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrence of extreme seismic events). They provide a link between geodynamic processes and seismicity, allow studying extreme events, influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns and seismic cycles, and assist, in a broader sense, in earthquake forecast modeling. Some aspects of predictability of large earthquakes (how well can large earthquakes be predicted today?) will be also discussed along with possibilities in mitigation of earthquake disasters (e.g., on 'inverse' forensic investigations of earthquake disasters).

  19. The moment magnitude M w and the energy magnitude M e: common roots and differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bormann, Peter; di Giacomo, Domenico

    2011-04-01

    Starting from the classical empirical magnitude-energy relationships, in this article, the derivation of the modern scales for moment magnitude M w and energy magnitude M e is outlined and critically discussed. The formulas for M w and M e calculation are presented in a way that reveals, besides the contributions of the physically defined measurement parameters seismic moment M 0 and radiated seismic energy E S, the role of the constants in the classical Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-energy relationship. Further, it is shown that M w and M e are linked via the parameter Θ = log( E S/ M 0), and the formula for M e can be written as M e = M w + (Θ + 4.7)/1.5. This relationship directly links M e with M w via their common scaling to classical magnitudes and, at the same time, highlights the reason why M w and M e can significantly differ. In fact, Θ is assumed to be constant when calculating M w. However, variations over three to four orders of magnitude in stress drop Δ σ (as well as related variations in rupture velocity V R and seismic wave radiation efficiency η R) are responsible for the large variability of actual Θ values of earthquakes. As a result, for the same earthquake, M e may sometimes differ by more than one magnitude unit from M w. Such a difference is highly relevant when assessing the actual damage potential associated with a given earthquake, because it expresses rather different static and dynamic source properties. While M w is most appropriate for estimating the earthquake size (i.e., the product of rupture area times average displacement) and thus the potential tsunami hazard posed by strong and great earthquakes in marine environs, M e is more suitable than M w for assessing the potential hazard of damage due to strong ground shaking, i.e., the earthquake strength. Therefore, whenever possible, these two magnitudes should be both independently determined and jointly considered. Usually, only M w is taken as a unified magnitude in many

  20. A Decade of Giant Earthquakes - What does it mean?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallace, Terry C. Jr. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-07-16

    On December 26, 2004 the largest earthquake since 1964 occurred near Ache, Indonesia. The magnitude 9.2 earthquake and subsequent tsunami killed a quarter of million people; it also marked the being of a period of extraordinary seismicity. Since the Ache earthquake there have been 16 magnitude 8 earthquakes globally, including 2 this last April. For the 100 years previous to 2004 there was an average of 1 magnitude 8 earthquake every 2.2 years; since 2004 there has been 2 per year. Since magnitude 8 earthquakes dominate global seismic energy release, this period of seismicity has seismologist rethinking what they understand about plate tectonics and the connectivity between giant earthquakes. This talk will explore this remarkable period of time and its possible implications.

  1. Earthquake prediction by Kina Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kianoosh, H.; Keypour, H.; Naderzadeh, A.; Motlagh, H.F.

    2005-01-01

    Earthquake prediction has been one of the earliest desires of the man. Scientists have worked hard to predict earthquakes for a long time. The results of these efforts can generally be divided into two methods of prediction: 1) Statistical Method, and 2) Empirical Method. In the first method, earthquakes are predicted using statistics and probabilities, while the second method utilizes variety of precursors for earthquake prediction. The latter method is time consuming and more costly. However, the result of neither method has fully satisfied the man up to now. In this paper a new method entitled 'Kiana Method' is introduced for earthquake prediction. This method offers more accurate results yet lower cost comparing to other conventional methods. In Kiana method the electrical and magnetic precursors are measured in an area. Then, the time and the magnitude of an earthquake in the future is calculated using electrical, and in particular, electrical capacitors formulas. In this method, by daily measurement of electrical resistance in an area we make clear that the area is capable of earthquake occurrence in the future or not. If the result shows a positive sign, then the occurrence time and the magnitude can be estimated by the measured quantities. This paper explains the procedure and details of this prediction method. (authors)

  2. Nowcasting Earthquakes and Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The term "nowcasting" refers to the estimation of the current uncertain state of a dynamical system, whereas "forecasting" is a calculation of probabilities of future state(s). Nowcasting is a term that originated in economics and finance, referring to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or market indicators such as GDP at the current time by indirect means. We have applied this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of a system of faults, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EA000185/full). Advantages of our nowcasting method over forecasting models include: 1) Nowcasting is simply data analysis and does not involve a model having parameters that must be fit to data; 2) We use only earthquake catalog data which generally has known errors and characteristics; and 3) We use area-based analysis rather than fault-based analysis, meaning that the methods work equally well on land and in subduction zones. To use the nowcast method to estimate how far the fault system has progressed through the "cycle" of large recurring earthquakes, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. We select a "small" region in which the nowcast is to be made, and compute the statistics of a much larger region around the small region. The statistics of the large region are then applied to the small region. For an application, we can define a small region around major global cities, for example a "small" circle of radius 150 km and a depth of 100 km, as well as a "large" earthquake magnitude, for example M6.0. The region of influence of such earthquakes is roughly 150 km radius x 100 km depth, which is the reason these values were selected. We can then compute and rank the seismic risk of the world's major cities in terms of their relative seismic risk

  3. Empirical Global Relations Converting M S and m b to Moment Magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scordilis, E. M.

    2006-04-01

    The existence of several magnitude scales used by seismological centers all over the world and the compilation of earthquake catalogs by many authors have rendered globally valid relations connecting magnitude scales a necessity. This would allow the creation of a homogeneous global earthquake catalog, a useful tool for earthquake research. Of special interest is the definition of global relations converting different magnitude scales to the most reliable and useful scale of magnitude, the moment magnitude, M W. In order to accomplish this, a very large sample of data from international seismological sources (ISC, NEIC, HRVD, etc.) has been collected and processed. The magnitude scales tested against M W are the surface wave magnitude, M S, the body wave magnitude, m b, and the local magnitude, M L. The moment magnitudes adopted have been taken from the CMT solutions of HRVD and USGS. The data set used in this study contains 20,407 earthquakes, which occurred all over the world during the time period 1.1.1976-31.5.2003, for which moment magnitudes are available. It is shown that well-defined relations hold between M W and m b and M S and that these relations can be reliably used for compiling homogeneous, with respect to magnitude, earthquake catalogs.

  4. Earthquake Catalogue of the Caucasus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoladze, T.; Gok, R.; Tvaradze, N.; Tumanova, N.; Gunia, I.; Onur, T.

    2016-12-01

    The Caucasus has a documented historical catalog stretching back to the beginning of the Christian era. Most of the largest historical earthquakes prior to the 19th century are assumed to have occurred on active faults of the Greater Caucasus. Important earthquakes include the Samtskhe earthquake of 1283 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); Lechkhumi-Svaneti earthquake of 1350 (Ms˜7.0, Io=9); and the Alaverdi earthquake of 1742 (Ms˜6.8, Io=9). Two significant historical earthquakes that may have occurred within the Javakheti plateau in the Lesser Caucasus are the Tmogvi earthquake of 1088 (Ms˜6.5, Io=9) and the Akhalkalaki earthquake of 1899 (Ms˜6.3, Io =8-9). Large earthquakes that occurred in the Caucasus within the period of instrumental observation are: Gori 1920; Tabatskuri 1940; Chkhalta 1963; Racha earthquake of 1991 (Ms=7.0), is the largest event ever recorded in the region; Barisakho earthquake of 1992 (M=6.5); Spitak earthquake of 1988 (Ms=6.9, 100 km south of Tbilisi), which killed over 50,000 people in Armenia. Recently, permanent broadband stations have been deployed across the region as part of the various national networks (Georgia (˜25 stations), Azerbaijan (˜35 stations), Armenia (˜14 stations)). The data from the last 10 years of observation provides an opportunity to perform modern, fundamental scientific investigations. In order to improve seismic data quality a catalog of all instrumentally recorded earthquakes has been compiled by the IES (Institute of Earth Sciences/NSMC, Ilia State University) in the framework of regional joint project (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, USA) "Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) in the Caucasus. The catalogue consists of more then 80,000 events. First arrivals of each earthquake of Mw>=4.0 have been carefully examined. To reduce calculation errors, we corrected arrivals from the seismic records. We improved locations of the events and recalculate Moment magnitudes in order to obtain unified magnitude

  5. Earthquake forecast for the Wasatch Front region of the Intermountain West

    Science.gov (United States)

    DuRoss, Christopher B.

    2016-04-18

    The Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities has assessed the probability of large earthquakes in the Wasatch Front region. There is a 43 percent probability of one or more magnitude 6.75 or greater earthquakes and a 57 percent probability of one or more magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquakes in the region in the next 50 years. These results highlight the threat of large earthquakes in the region.

  6. Earthquake-triggered landslides in southwest China

    OpenAIRE

    X. L. Chen; Q. Zhou; H. Ran; R. Dong

    2012-01-01

    Southwest China is located in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and it is a region of high seismic activity. Historically, strong earthquakes that occurred here usually generated lots of landslides and brought destructive damages. This paper introduces several earthquake-triggered landslide events in this region and describes their characteristics. Also, the historical data of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater, having occurred in this region, is col...

  7. Moment magnitude scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanks, T.C.; Kanamori, H.

    1979-05-10

    The nearly conincident forms of the relations between seismic moment M/sub o/ and the magnitudes M/sub L/, M/sub s/, and M/sub w/ imply a moment magnitude scale M=2/3 log M/sub o/-10.7 which is uniformly valid for 3< or approx. =M/sub L/< or approx. = 7, 5 < or approx. =M/sub s/< or approx. =7 1/2 and M/sub w/> or approx. = 7 1/2.

  8. Radon as an earthquake precursor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planinic, J.; Radolic, V.; Vukovic, B.

    2004-01-01

    Radon concentrations in soil gas were continuously measured by the LR-115 nuclear track detectors during a four-year period. Seismic activities, as well as barometric pressure, rainfall and air temperature were also observed. The influence of meteorological parameters on temporal radon variations was investigated, and a respective equation of the multiple regression was derived. The earthquakes with magnitude ≥3 at epicentral distances ≤200 km were recognized by means of radon anomaly. Empirical equations between earthquake magnitude, epicentral distance and precursor time were examined, and respective constants were determined

  9. Radon as an earthquake precursor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Planinic, J. E-mail: planinic@pedos.hr; Radolic, V.; Vukovic, B

    2004-09-11

    Radon concentrations in soil gas were continuously measured by the LR-115 nuclear track detectors during a four-year period. Seismic activities, as well as barometric pressure, rainfall and air temperature were also observed. The influence of meteorological parameters on temporal radon variations was investigated, and a respective equation of the multiple regression was derived. The earthquakes with magnitude {>=}3 at epicentral distances {<=}200 km were recognized by means of radon anomaly. Empirical equations between earthquake magnitude, epicentral distance and precursor time were examined, and respective constants were determined.

  10. Analog earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofmann, R.B.

    1995-01-01

    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository

  11. Induced seismicity provides insight into why earthquake ruptures stop

    KAUST Repository

    Galis, Martin; Ampuero, Jean Paul; Mai, Paul Martin; Cappa, Fré dé ric

    2017-01-01

    the perturbed area and distinguishes self-arrested from runaway ruptures. We develop a theoretical scaling relation between the largest magnitude of self-arrested earthquakes and the injected volume and find it consistent with observed maximum magnitudes

  12. The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Minson, Sarah E.; Meier, Men-Andrin; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2018-01-01

    The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions aroun...

  13. Earthquake likelihood model testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    INTRODUCTIONThe Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) project aims to produce and evaluate alternate models of earthquake potential (probability per unit volume, magnitude, and time) for California. Based on differing assumptions, these models are produced to test the validity of their assumptions and to explore which models should be incorporated in seismic hazard and risk evaluation. Tests based on physical and geological criteria are useful but we focus on statistical methods using future earthquake catalog data only. We envision two evaluations: a test of consistency with observed data and a comparison of all pairs of models for relative consistency. Both tests are based on the likelihood method, and both are fully prospective (i.e., the models are not adjusted to fit the test data). To be tested, each model must assign a probability to any possible event within a specified region of space, time, and magnitude. For our tests the models must use a common format: earthquake rates in specified “bins” with location, magnitude, time, and focal mechanism limits.Seismology cannot yet deterministically predict individual earthquakes; however, it should seek the best possible models for forecasting earthquake occurrence. This paper describes the statistical rules of an experiment to examine and test earthquake forecasts. The primary purposes of the tests described below are to evaluate physical models for earthquakes, assure that source models used in seismic hazard and risk studies are consistent with earthquake data, and provide quantitative measures by which models can be assigned weights in a consensus model or be judged as suitable for particular regions.In this paper we develop a statistical method for testing earthquake likelihood models. A companion paper (Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger 2007, this issue) discusses the actual implementation of these tests in the framework of the RELM initiative.Statistical testing of hypotheses is a common task and a

  14. Large earthquakes and creeping faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Ruth A.

    2017-01-01

    Faults are ubiquitous throughout the Earth's crust. The majority are silent for decades to centuries, until they suddenly rupture and produce earthquakes. With a focus on shallow continental active-tectonic regions, this paper reviews a subset of faults that have a different behavior. These unusual faults slowly creep for long periods of time and produce many small earthquakes. The presence of fault creep and the related microseismicity helps illuminate faults that might not otherwise be located in fine detail, but there is also the question of how creeping faults contribute to seismic hazard. It appears that well-recorded creeping fault earthquakes of up to magnitude 6.6 that have occurred in shallow continental regions produce similar fault-surface rupture areas and similar peak ground shaking as their locked fault counterparts of the same earthquake magnitude. The behavior of much larger earthquakes on shallow creeping continental faults is less well known, because there is a dearth of comprehensive observations. Computational simulations provide an opportunity to fill the gaps in our understanding, particularly of the dynamic processes that occur during large earthquake rupture and arrest.

  15. The EM Earthquake Precursor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, K. B., II; Saxton, P. T.

    2013-12-01

    Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake, American earthquake investigators predetermined magnetometer use and a minimum earthquake magnitude necessary for EM detection. This action was set in motion, due to the extensive damage incurred and public outrage concerning earthquake forecasting; however, the magnetometers employed, grounded or buried, are completely subject to static and electric fields and have yet to correlate to an identifiable precursor. Secondly, there is neither a networked array for finding any epicentral locations, nor have there been any attempts to find even one. This methodology needs dismissal, because it is overly complicated, subject to continuous change, and provides no response time. As for the minimum magnitude threshold, which was set at M5, this is simply higher than what modern technological advances have gained. Detection can now be achieved at approximately M1, which greatly improves forecasting chances. A propagating precursor has now been detected in both the field and laboratory. Field antenna testing conducted outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013, detected three strong EM sources along with numerous weaker signals. The antenna had mobility, and observations were noted for recurrence, duration, and frequency response. Next, two

  16. Earthquakes - a danger to deep-lying repositories?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-03-01

    This booklet issued by the Swiss National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste NAGRA takes a look at geological factors concerning earthquakes and the safety of deep-lying repositories for nuclear waste. The geological processes involved in the occurrence of earthquakes are briefly looked at and the definitions for magnitude and intensity of earthquakes are discussed. Examples of damage caused by earthquakes are given. The earthquake situation in Switzerland is looked at and the effects of earthquakes on sub-surface structures and deep-lying repositories are discussed. Finally, the ideas proposed for deep-lying geological repositories for nuclear wastes are discussed

  17. Real time monitoring of moment magnitude by waveform inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J.; Friederich, W.; Meier, T.

    2012-01-01

    An instantaneous measure of the moment magnitude (Mw) of an ongoing earthquake is estimated from the moment rate function (MRF) determined in real-time from available seismic data using waveform inversion. Integration of the MRF gives the moment function from which an instantaneous Mw is derived. By repeating the inversion procedure at regular intervals while seismic data are coming in we can monitor the evolution of seismic moment and Mw with time. The final size and duration of a strong earthquake can be obtained within 12 to 15 minutes after the origin time. We show examples of Mw monitoring for three large earthquakes at regional distances. The estimated Mw is only weakly sensitive to changes in the assumed source parameters. Depending on the availability of seismic stations close to the epicenter, a rapid estimation of the Mw as a prerequisite for the assessment of earthquake damage potential appears to be feasible.

  18. Southern San Andreas Fault seismicity is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Morgan T.; Felzer, Karen

    2015-01-01

    The magnitudes of any collection of earthquakes nucleating in a region are generally observed to follow the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. On some major faults, however, paleoseismic rates are higher than a G-R extrapolation from the modern rate of small earthquakes would predict. This, along with other observations, led to formulation of the characteristic earthquake hypothesis, which holds that the rate of small to moderate earthquakes is permanently low on large faults relative to the large-earthquake rate (Wesnousky et al., 1983; Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984). We examine the rate difference between recent small to moderate earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) and the paleoseismic record, hypothesizing that the discrepancy can be explained as a rate change in time rather than a deviation from G-R statistics. We find that with reasonable assumptions, the rate changes necessary to bring the small and large earthquake rates into alignment agree with the size of rate changes seen in epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) modeling, where aftershock triggering of large earthquakes drives strong fluctuations in the seismicity rates for earthquakes of all magnitudes. The necessary rate changes are also comparable to rate changes observed for other faults worldwide. These results are consistent with paleoseismic observations of temporally clustered bursts of large earthquakes on the SSAF and the absence of M greater than or equal to 7 earthquakes on the SSAF since 1857.

  19. The 2010 Chile Earthquake: Rapid Assessments of Tsunami

    OpenAIRE

    Michelini, A.; Lauciani, V.; Selvaggi, G.; Lomax, A.

    2010-01-01

    After an earthquake underwater, rapid real-time assessment of earthquake parameters is important for emergency response related to infrastructure damage and, perhaps more exigently, for issuing warnings of the possibility of an impending tsunami. Since 2005, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) has worked on the rapid quantification of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential, especially for the Mediterranean area. This work includes quantification of earthquake size fr...

  20. A first-order second-moment calculation for seismic hazard assessment with the consideration of uncertain magnitude conversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Wang

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake size can be described with different magnitudes for different purposes. For example, local magnitude ML is usually adopted to compile an earthquake catalog, and moment magnitude Mw is often prescribed by a ground motion model. Understandably, when inconsistent units are encountered in an earthquake analysis, magnitude conversion needs to be performed beforehand. However, the conversion is not expected at full certainty owing to the model error of empirical relationships. This paper introduces a novel first-order second-moment (FOSM calculation to estimate the annual rate of earthquake motion (or seismic hazard on a probabilistic basis, including the consideration of the uncertain magnitude conversion and three other sources of earthquake uncertainties. In addition to the methodology, this novel FOSM application to engineering seismology is demonstrated in this paper with a case study. With a local ground motion model, magnitude conversion relationship and earthquake catalog, the analysis shows that the best-estimate annual rate of peak ground acceleration (PGA greater than 0.18 g (induced by earthquakes is 0.002 per year at a site in Taipei, given the uncertainties of magnitude conversion, earthquake size, earthquake location, and motion attenuation.

  1. A first-order second-moment calculation for seismic hazard assessment with the consideration of uncertain magnitude conversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J. P.; Yun, X.; Wu, Y.-M.

    2013-10-01

    Earthquake size can be described with different magnitudes for different purposes. For example, local magnitude ML is usually adopted to compile an earthquake catalog, and moment magnitude Mw is often prescribed by a ground motion model. Understandably, when inconsistent units are encountered in an earthquake analysis, magnitude conversion needs to be performed beforehand. However, the conversion is not expected at full certainty owing to the model error of empirical relationships. This paper introduces a novel first-order second-moment (FOSM) calculation to estimate the annual rate of earthquake motion (or seismic hazard) on a probabilistic basis, including the consideration of the uncertain magnitude conversion and three other sources of earthquake uncertainties. In addition to the methodology, this novel FOSM application to engineering seismology is demonstrated in this paper with a case study. With a local ground motion model, magnitude conversion relationship and earthquake catalog, the analysis shows that the best-estimate annual rate of peak ground acceleration (PGA) greater than 0.18 g (induced by earthquakes) is 0.002 per year at a site in Taipei, given the uncertainties of magnitude conversion, earthquake size, earthquake location, and motion attenuation.

  2. A smartphone application for earthquakes that matter!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, Rémy; Etivant, Caroline; Roussel, Fréderic; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Steed, Robert

    2014-05-01

    Smartphone applications have swiftly become one of the most popular tools for rapid reception of earthquake information for the public, some of them having been downloaded more than 1 million times! The advantages are obvious: wherever someone's own location is, they can be automatically informed when an earthquake has struck. Just by setting a magnitude threshold and an area of interest, there is no longer the need to browse the internet as the information reaches you automatically and instantaneously! One question remains: are the provided earthquake notifications always relevant for the public? What are the earthquakes that really matters to laypeople? One clue may be derived from some newspaper reports that show that a while after damaging earthquakes many eyewitnesses scrap the application they installed just after the mainshock. Why? Because either the magnitude threshold is set too high and many felt earthquakes are missed, or it is set too low and the majority of the notifications are related to unfelt earthquakes thereby only increasing anxiety among the population at each new update. Felt and damaging earthquakes are the ones that matter the most for the public (and authorities). They are the ones of societal importance even when of small magnitude. A smartphone application developed by EMSC (Euro-Med Seismological Centre) with the financial support of the Fondation MAIF aims at providing suitable notifications for earthquakes by collating different information threads covering tsunamigenic, potentially damaging and felt earthquakes. Tsunamigenic earthquakes are considered here to be those ones that are the subject of alert or information messages from the PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre). While potentially damaging earthquakes are identified through an automated system called EQIA (Earthquake Qualitative Impact Assessment) developed and operated at EMSC. This rapidly assesses earthquake impact by comparing the population exposed to each expected

  3. The October 1992 Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langbein, J.

    1992-01-01

    A magnitude 4.7 earthquake occurred near Parkfield, California, on October 20, 992, at 05:28 UTC (October 19 at 10:28 p.m. local or Pacific Daylight Time).This moderate shock, interpreted as the potential foreshock of a damaging earthquake on the San Andreas fault, triggered long-standing federal, state and local government plans to issue a public warning of an imminent magnitude 6 earthquake near Parkfield. Although the predicted earthquake did not take place, sophisticated suites of instruments deployed as part of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment recorded valuable data associated with an unusual series of events. this article describes the geological aspects of these events, which occurred near Parkfield in October 1992. The accompnaying article, an edited version of a press conference b Richard Andrews, the Director of the California Office of Emergency Service (OES), describes governmental response to the prediction.   

  4. Modified Mercalli intensities for some recent California earthquakes and historic San Francisco Bay Region earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakun, William H.

    1998-01-01

    Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) data for recent California earthquakes were used by Bakun and Wentworth (1997) to develop a strategy for bounding the location and moment magnitude M of earthquakes from MMI observations only. Bakun (Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., submitted) used the Bakun and Wentworth (1997) strategy to analyze 19th century and early 20th century San Francisco Bay Region earthquakes. The MMI data and site corrections used in these studies are listed in this Open-file Report. 

  5. Thermal infrared anomalies of several strong earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Congxin; Zhang, Yuansheng; Guo, Xiao; Hui, Shaoxing; Qin, Manzhong; Zhang, Ying

    2013-01-01

    In the history of earthquake thermal infrared research, it is undeniable that before and after strong earthquakes there are significant thermal infrared anomalies which have been interpreted as preseismic precursor in earthquake prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we studied the characteristics of thermal radiation observed before and after the 8 great earthquakes with magnitude up to Ms7.0 by using the satellite infrared remote sensing information. We used new types of data and method to extract the useful anomaly information. Based on the analyses of 8 earthquakes, we got the results as follows. (1) There are significant thermal radiation anomalies before and after earthquakes for all cases. The overall performance of anomalies includes two main stages: expanding first and narrowing later. We easily extracted and identified such seismic anomalies by method of "time-frequency relative power spectrum." (2) There exist evident and different characteristic periods and magnitudes of thermal abnormal radiation for each case. (3) Thermal radiation anomalies are closely related to the geological structure. (4) Thermal radiation has obvious characteristics in abnormal duration, range, and morphology. In summary, we should be sure that earthquake thermal infrared anomalies as useful earthquake precursor can be used in earthquake prediction and forecasting.

  6. Seismicity map tools for earthquake studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucouvalas, Anthony; Kaskebes, Athanasios; Tselikas, Nikos

    2014-05-01

    We report on the development of new and online set of tools for use within Google Maps, for earthquake research. We demonstrate this server based and online platform (developped with PHP, Javascript, MySQL) with the new tools using a database system with earthquake data. The platform allows us to carry out statistical and deterministic analysis on earthquake data use of Google Maps and plot various seismicity graphs. The tool box has been extended to draw on the map line segments, multiple straight lines horizontally and vertically as well as multiple circles, including geodesic lines. The application is demonstrated using localized seismic data from the geographic region of Greece as well as other global earthquake data. The application also offers regional segmentation (NxN) which allows the studying earthquake clustering, and earthquake cluster shift within the segments in space. The platform offers many filters such for plotting selected magnitude ranges or time periods. The plotting facility allows statistically based plots such as cumulative earthquake magnitude plots and earthquake magnitude histograms, calculation of 'b' etc. What is novel for the platform is the additional deterministic tools. Using the newly developed horizontal and vertical line and circle tools we have studied the spatial distribution trends of many earthquakes and we here show for the first time the link between Fibonacci Numbers and spatiotemporal location of some earthquakes. The new tools are valuable for examining visualizing trends in earthquake research as it allows calculation of statistics as well as deterministic precursors. We plan to show many new results based on our newly developed platform.

  7. Ionospheric phenomena before strong earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Silina

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A statistical analysis of several ionospheric parameters before earthquakes with magnitude M > 5.5 located less than 500 km from an ionospheric vertical sounding station is performed. Ionospheric effects preceding "deep" (depth h > 33 km and "crust" (h 33 km earthquakes were analysed separately. Data of nighttime measurements of the critical frequencies foF2 and foEs, the frequency fbEs and Es-spread at the middle latitude station Dushanbe were used. The frequencies foF2 and fbEs are proportional to the square root of the ionization density at heights of 300 km and 100 km, respectively. It is shown that two days before the earthquakes the values of foF2 averaged over the morning hours (00:00 LT–06:00 LT and of fbEs averaged over the nighttime hours (18:00 LT–06:00 LT decrease; the effect is stronger for the "deep" earthquakes. Analysing the coefficient of semitransparency which characterizes the degree of small-scale turbulence, it was shown that this value increases 1–4 days before "crust" earthquakes, and it does not change before "deep" earthquakes. Studying Es-spread which manifests itself as diffuse Es track on ionograms and characterizes the degree of large-scale turbulence, it was found that the number of Es-spread observations increases 1–3 days before the earthquakes; for "deep" earthquakes the effect is more intensive. Thus it may be concluded that different mechanisms of energy transfer from the region of earthquake preparation to the ionosphere occur for "deep" and "crust" events.

  8. Real Time Earthquake Information System in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doi, K.; Kato, T.

    2003-12-01

    An early earthquake notification system in Japan had been developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a governmental organization responsible for issuing earthquake information and tsunami forecasts. The system was primarily developed for prompt provision of a tsunami forecast to the public with locating an earthquake and estimating its magnitude as quickly as possible. Years after, a system for a prompt provision of seismic intensity information as indices of degrees of disasters caused by strong ground motion was also developed so that concerned governmental organizations can decide whether it was necessary for them to launch emergency response or not. At present, JMA issues the following kinds of information successively when a large earthquake occurs. 1) Prompt report of occurrence of a large earthquake and major seismic intensities caused by the earthquake in about two minutes after the earthquake occurrence. 2) Tsunami forecast in around three minutes. 3) Information on expected arrival times and maximum heights of tsunami waves in around five minutes. 4) Information on a hypocenter and a magnitude of the earthquake, the seismic intensity at each observation station, the times of high tides in addition to the expected tsunami arrival times in 5-7 minutes. To issue information above, JMA has established; - An advanced nationwide seismic network with about 180 stations for seismic wave observation and about 3,400 stations for instrumental seismic intensity observation including about 2,800 seismic intensity stations maintained by local governments, - Data telemetry networks via landlines and partly via a satellite communication link, - Real-time data processing techniques, for example, the automatic calculation of earthquake location and magnitude, the database driven method for quantitative tsunami estimation, and - Dissemination networks, via computer-to-computer communications and facsimile through dedicated telephone lines. JMA operationally

  9. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-01-01

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

  10. Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes. Large earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavenda, B. [Camerino Univ., Camerino, MC (Italy); Cipollone, E. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, RM (Italy). National Centre for Research on Thermodynamics

    2000-06-01

    A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershocks sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Frechet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions show that self-similar power laws are transformed into non scaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Frechet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same catalogue of Chinese earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Frechet distribution. Earthquake temperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

  11. Countermeasures to earthquakes in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Kazuhide

    1979-01-01

    The contribution of atomic energy to mankind is unmeasured, but the danger of radioactivity is a special thing. Therefore in the design of nuclear power plants, the safety has been regarded as important, and in Japan where earthquakes occur frequently, the countermeasures to earthquakes have been incorporated in the examination of safety naturally. The radioactive substances handled in nuclear power stations and spent fuel reprocessing plants are briefly explained. The occurrence of earthquakes cannot be predicted effectively, and the disaster due to earthquakes is apt to be remarkably large. In nuclear plants, the prevention of damage in the facilities and the maintenance of the functions are required at the time of earthquakes. Regarding the location of nuclear plants, the history of earthquakes, the possible magnitude of earthquakes, the properties of ground and the position of nuclear plants should be examined. After the place of installation has been decided, the earthquake used for design is selected, evaluating live faults and determining the standard earthquakes. As the fundamentals of aseismatic design, the classification according to importance, the earthquakes for design corresponding to the classes of importance, the combination of loads and allowable stress are explained. (Kako, I.)

  12. Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  13. The mechanism of earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Kunquan; Cao, Zexian; Hou, Meiying; Jiang, Zehui; Shen, Rong; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Gang; Liu, Jixing

    2018-03-01

    strength of crust rocks: The gravitational pressure can initiate the elasticity-plasticity transition in crust rocks. By calculating the depth dependence of elasticity-plasticity transition and according to the actual situation analysis, the behaviors of crust rocks can be categorized in three typical zones: elastic, partially plastic and fully plastic. As the proportion of plastic portion reaches about 10% in the partially plastic zone, plastic interconnection may occur and the variation of shear strength in rocks is mainly characterized by plastic behavior. The equivalent coefficient of friction for the plastic slip is smaller by an order of magnitude, or even less than that for brittle fracture, thus the shear strength of rocks by plastic sliding is much less than that by brittle breaking. Moreover, with increasing depth a number of other factors can further reduce the shear yield strength of rocks. On the other hand, since earthquake is a large-scale damage, the rock breaking must occur along the weakest path. Therefore, the actual fracture strength of rocks in a shallow earthquake is assuredly lower than the average shear strength of rocks as generally observed. The typical distributions of the average strength and actual fracture strength in crustal rocks varying with depth are schematically illustrated. (3) The conditions for earthquake occurrence and mechanisms of earthquake: An earthquake will lead to volume expansion, and volume expansion must break through the obstacle. The condition for an earthquake to occur is as follows: the tectonic force exceeds the sum of the fracture strength of rock, the friction force of fault boundary and the resistance from obstacles. Therefore, the shallow earthquake is characterized by plastic sliding of rocks that break through the obstacles. Accordingly, four possible patterns for shallow earthquakes are put forward. Deep-focus earthquakes are believed to result from a wide-range rock flow that breaks the jam. Both shallow

  14. Fault lubrication during earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Toro, G; Han, R; Hirose, T; De Paola, N; Nielsen, S; Mizoguchi, K; Ferri, F; Cocco, M; Shimamoto, T

    2011-03-24

    The determination of rock friction at seismic slip rates (about 1 m s(-1)) is of paramount importance in earthquake mechanics, as fault friction controls the stress drop, the mechanical work and the frictional heat generated during slip. Given the difficulty in determining friction by seismological methods, elucidating constraints are derived from experimental studies. Here we review a large set of published and unpublished experiments (∼300) performed in rotary shear apparatus at slip rates of 0.1-2.6 m s(-1). The experiments indicate a significant decrease in friction (of up to one order of magnitude), which we term fault lubrication, both for cohesive (silicate-built, quartz-built and carbonate-built) rocks and non-cohesive rocks (clay-rich, anhydrite, gypsum and dolomite gouges) typical of crustal seismogenic sources. The available mechanical work and the associated temperature rise in the slipping zone trigger a number of physicochemical processes (gelification, decarbonation and dehydration reactions, melting and so on) whose products are responsible for fault lubrication. The similarity between (1) experimental and natural fault products and (2) mechanical work measures resulting from these laboratory experiments and seismological estimates suggests that it is reasonable to extrapolate experimental data to conditions typical of earthquake nucleation depths (7-15 km). It seems that faults are lubricated during earthquakes, irrespective of the fault rock composition and of the specific weakening mechanism involved.

  15. Earthquake Facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... North Dakota, and Wisconsin. The core of the earth was the first internal structural element to be identified. In 1906 R.D. Oldham discovered it from his studies of earthquake records. The inner core is solid, and the outer core is liquid and so does not transmit ...

  16. Moment Magnitude Determination for Marmara Region-Turkey Using Displacement Spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köseoǧlu Küsmezer, Ayşegül; Meral Özel, Nurcan; Barış, Å.žErif; Üçer, S. Balamir; Ottemöller, Lars

    2010-05-01

    The main purpose of the study is to determine moment magnitude Mω using displacement source spectra of earthquakes occurred in Marmara Region. The region is the most densely populated and fast-developing part of Turkey, bounded by 39.0°N to 42.0°N and 26.0°E to 32.0°E, and have experienced major earthquake disasters during the last four centuries with destructive earthquakes and probabilistic seismic hazard studies shows that the region have significant probability of producing M>7 earthquake within the next years. Seismic moment is a direct measurement of earthquake size (rupture area and static displacement) and does not saturate, spectral analysis at local distances is a very useful method which allows the reliable determination of seismic moment and moment magnitude. We have used converging grid search method developed by L. Ottemöller, and J. Havskov, 2008 for the automatic determination of moment magnitude for local distances. For data preperation; the time domain signal of S waves were extracted from the vertical component seismograms.Data was transformed from time to frequency domain by applying the standart fast fourier transform (fft). Source parameters and moment magnitudes of earthquakes are determined by applying spectral fitting procedure to classical Brune's model. The method is first manually and then automatically performed on the source spectrum of S waves within 20 sec. Mo and fc (Aki;1967, and Brune;1970) were determined by using the method which the model space is divided into a grid and the error function detected for all grid points. A smaller grid with denser spacing around the best solution is generated with an iterative procedure. The moment magnitudes of the earthquakes have been calculated according to the scale of Kanamori (1977) and Hanks and Kanamori (1979). A data set of 279 events recorded on broadband velocity seismograms extracted from KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) seismic network were

  17. Constraining the magnitude of the largest event in a foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shcherbakov, Robert; Zhuang, Jiancang; Ogata, Yosihiko

    2018-01-01

    Extreme value statistics and Bayesian methods are used to constrain the magnitudes of the largest expected earthquakes in a sequence governed by the parametric time-dependent occurrence rate and frequency-magnitude statistics. The Bayesian predictive distribution for the magnitude of the largest event in a sequence is derived. Two types of sequences are considered, that is, the classical aftershock sequences generated by large main shocks and the aftershocks generated by large foreshocks preceding a main shock. For the former sequences, the early aftershocks during a training time interval are used to constrain the magnitude of the future extreme event during the forecasting time interval. For the latter sequences, the earthquakes preceding the main shock are used to constrain the magnitudes of the subsequent extreme events including the main shock. The analysis is applied retrospectively to past prominent earthquake sequences.

  18. Smoking prevalence increases following Canterbury earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erskine, Nick; Daley, Vivien; Stevenson, Sue; Rhodes, Bronwen; Beckert, Lutz

    2013-01-01

    A magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit Canterbury in September 2010. This earthquake and associated aftershocks took the lives of 185 people and drastically changed residents' living, working, and social conditions. To explore the impact of the earthquakes on smoking status and levels of tobacco consumption in the residents of Christchurch. Semistructured interviews were carried out in two city malls and the central bus exchange 15 months after the first earthquake. A total of 1001 people were interviewed. In August 2010, prior to any earthquake, 409 (41%) participants had never smoked, 273 (27%) were currently smoking, and 316 (32%) were ex-smokers. Since the September 2010 earthquake, 76 (24%) of the 316 ex-smokers had smoked at least one cigarette and 29 (38.2%) had smoked more than 100 cigarettes. Of the 273 participants who were current smokers in August 2010, 93 (34.1%) had increased consumption following the earthquake, 94 (34.4%) had not changed, and 86 (31.5%) had decreased their consumption. 53 (57%) of the 93 people whose consumption increased reported that the earthquake and subsequent lifestyle changes as a reason to increase smoking. 24% of ex-smokers resumed smoking following the earthquake, resulting in increased smoking prevalence. Tobacco consumption levels increased in around one-third of current smokers.

  19. Right idea, wrong magnitude system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lourenco, Stella F; Aulet, Lauren S; Ayzenberg, Vladislav; Cheung, Chi-Ngai; Holmes, Kevin J

    2017-01-01

    Leibovich et al. claim that number representations are non-existent early in life and that the associations between number and continuous magnitudes reside in stimulus confounds. We challenge both claims - positing, instead, that number is represented independently of continuous magnitudes already in infancy, but is nonetheless more deeply connected to other magnitudes through adulthood than acknowledged by the "sense of magnitude" theory.

  20. New moment magnitude scale, evidence of stress drop magnitude scaling and stochastic ground motion model for the French West Indies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drouet, Stéphane; Bouin, Marie-Paule; Cotton, Fabrice

    2011-12-01

    In this study we analyse records from the 'Les Saintes' seismic sequence following the Mw= 6.3 earthquake of 2004 November 11, which occurred close to Guadeloupe (French West Indies). 485 earthquakes with magnitudes from 2 to 6, recorded at distances between 5 and 150 km are used. S-waves Fourier spectra are analysed to simultaneously determine source, path and site terms. The results show that the duration magnitude routinely estimated for the events that occurred in the region underestimate moment magnitude by 0.5 magnitude units over the whole magnitude range. From the inverted seismic moments and corner frequencies, we compute Brune's stress drops. We show that stress drops increase with increasing magnitude. The same pattern is observed on apparent stresses (i.e. the seismic energy-to-moment ratio). However, the rate of increase diminishes at high magnitudes, which is consistent with a constant stress drop model for large events. Using the results of the inversions, we perform ground motion simulations for the entire data set using the SMSIM stochastic simulation tool. The results show that a good fit (σ= 0.25) with observed data is achieved when the source is properly described by its moment magnitude and stress drop, and when site effects are taken into account. Although the magnitude-dependent stress drop model is giving better results than the constant stress drop model, the interevent variability remains high, which could suggest that stress drop depends on other parameters such as the depth of the hypocentre. In any case, the overall variability is of the same order of magnitude as usually observed in empirical ground motion prediction equations.

  1. Fault failure with moderate earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, M. J. S.; Linde, A. T.; Gladwin, M. T.; Borcherdt, R. D.

    1987-12-01

    High resolution strain and tilt recordings were made in the near-field of, and prior to, the May 1983 Coalinga earthquake ( ML = 6.7, Δ = 51 km), the August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills earthquake ( ML = 5.5, Δ = 34 km), the April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake ( ML = 6.1, Δ = 55 km), the November 1984 Round Valley earthquake ( ML = 5.8, Δ = 54 km), the January 14, 1978, Izu, Japan earthquake ( ML = 7.0, Δ = 28 km), and several other smaller magnitude earthquakes. These recordings were made with near-surface instruments (resolution 10 -8), with borehole dilatometers (resolution 10 -10) and a 3-component borehole strainmeter (resolution 10 -9). While observed coseismic offsets are generally in good agreement with expectations from elastic dislocation theory, and while post-seismic deformation continued, in some cases, with a moment comparable to that of the main shock, preseismic strain or tilt perturbations from hours to seconds (or less) before the main shock are not apparent above the present resolution. Precursory slip for these events, if any occurred, must have had a moment less than a few percent of that of the main event. To the extent that these records reflect general fault behavior, the strong constraint on the size and amount of slip triggering major rupture makes prediction of the onset times and final magnitudes of the rupture zones a difficult task unless the instruments are fortuitously installed near the rupture initiation point. These data are best explained by an inhomogeneous failure model for which various areas of the fault plane have either different stress-slip constitutive laws or spatially varying constitutive parameters. Other work on seismic waveform analysis and synthetic waveforms indicates that the rupturing process is inhomogeneous and controlled by points of higher strength. These models indicate that rupture initiation occurs at smaller regions of higher strength which, when broken, allow runaway catastrophic failure.

  2. Twitter earthquake detection: earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel C. Bowden

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word “earthquake” clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  3. Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes: large earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. H. Lavenda

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershock sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Fréchet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions shows that self-similar power laws are transformed into nonscaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Fréchet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same Catalogue of Chinese Earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Fréchet distribution. Earthquaketemperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

  4. Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aagaard, Brad T.; Blair, James Luke; Boatwright, John; Garcia, Susan H.; Harris, Ruth A.; Michael, Andrew J.; Schwartz, David P.; DiLeo, Jeanne S.; Jacques, Kate; Donlin, Carolyn

    2016-06-13

    Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043. Earthquakes this large are capable of causing widespread damage; therefore, communities in the region should take simple steps to help reduce injuries, damage, and disruption, as well as accelerate recovery from these earthquakes.

  5. Catalog of Hawaiian earthquakes, 1823-1959

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Fred W.; Wright, Thomas L.

    2000-01-01

    This catalog of more than 17,000 Hawaiian earthquakes (of magnitude greater than or equal to 5), principally located on the Island of Hawaii, from 1823 through the third quarter of 1959 is designed to expand our ability to evaluate seismic hazard in Hawaii, as well as our knowledge of Hawaiian seismic rhythms as they relate to eruption cycles at Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes and to subcrustal earthquake patterns related to the tectonic evolution of the Hawaiian chain.

  6. An instrumental earthquake catalogue for northeastern Italy since 1900

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margottini, C.; Martini, G.; Slejko, D.

    1991-01-01

    An earthquake catalogue of instrumental data for northeastern Italy since 1900 is presented. The different types of magnitude, which are the main parameters of the present study, have been evaluated so as to be as homogeneous as possible. Comparisons of the different magnitude values show linear dependence, at least in the medium magnitude range represented by the available data set. Correlations between the magnitude most significant for this region and chosen macroseismic data indicate a methodology for assessing the macroseismic magnitude of historical earthquakes which seems to be stable. (author)

  7. Defining Tsunami Magnitude as Measure of Potential Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titov, V. V.; Tang, L.

    2016-12-01

    The goal of tsunami forecast, as a system for predicting potential impact of a tsunami at coastlines, requires quick estimate of a tsunami magnitude. This goal has been recognized since the beginning of tsunami research. The work of Kajiura, Soloviev, Abe, Murty, and many others discussed several scales for tsunami magnitude based on estimates of tsunami energy. However, difficulties of estimating tsunami energy based on available tsunami measurements at coastal sea-level stations has carried significant uncertainties and has been virtually impossible in real time, before tsunami impacts coastlines. The slow process of tsunami magnitude estimates, including collection of vast amount of available coastal sea-level data from affected coastlines, made it impractical to use any tsunami magnitude scales in tsunami warning operations. Uncertainties of estimates made tsunami magnitudes difficult to use as universal scale for tsunami analysis. Historically, the earthquake magnitude has been used as a proxy of tsunami impact estimates, since real-time seismic data is available of real-time processing and ample amount of seismic data is available for an elaborate post event analysis. This measure of tsunami impact carries significant uncertainties in quantitative tsunami impact estimates, since the relation between the earthquake and generated tsunami energy varies from case to case. In this work, we argue that current tsunami measurement capabilities and real-time modeling tools allow for establishing robust tsunami magnitude that will be useful for tsunami warning as a quick estimate for tsunami impact and for post-event analysis as a universal scale for tsunamis inter-comparison. We present a method for estimating the tsunami magnitude based on tsunami energy and present application of the magnitude analysis for several historical events for inter-comparison with existing methods.

  8. Parallel Earthquake Simulations on Large-Scale Multicore Supercomputers

    KAUST Repository

    Wu, Xingfu

    2011-01-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural hazards on our planet Earth. Hugh earthquakes striking offshore may cause devastating tsunamis, as evidenced by the 11 March 2011 Japan (moment magnitude Mw9.0) and the 26 December 2004 Sumatra (Mw9.1) earthquakes. Earthquake prediction (in terms of the precise time, place, and magnitude of a coming earthquake) is arguably unfeasible in the foreseeable future. To mitigate seismic hazards from future earthquakes in earthquake-prone areas, such as California and Japan, scientists have been using numerical simulations to study earthquake rupture propagation along faults and seismic wave propagation in the surrounding media on ever-advancing modern computers over past several decades. In particular, ground motion simulations for past and future (possible) significant earthquakes have been performed to understand factors that affect ground shaking in populated areas, and to provide ground shaking characteristics and synthetic seismograms for emergency preparation and design of earthquake-resistant structures. These simulation results can guide the development of more rational seismic provisions for leading to safer, more efficient, and economical50pt]Please provide V. Taylor author e-mail ID. structures in earthquake-prone regions.

  9. Relationship of heat and cold to earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Y.

    1980-06-26

    An analysis of 54 earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above, including 13 of magnitude 8 and above, between 780 BC and the present, shows that the vast majority of them fell in the four major cool periods during this time span, or on the boundaries of these periods. Between 1800 and 1876, four periods of earthquake activity in China can be recognized, and these tend to correspond to relatively cold periods over that time span. An analysis of earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above over the period 1951 to 1965 gives the following results: earthquakes in north and southwest China tended to occur when the preceding year had an above-average annual temperature and winter temperature; in the northeast they tended to occur in a year after a year with an above-average winter temperature; in the northwest there was also a connection with a preceding warm winter, but to a less pronounced degree. The few earthquakes in South China seemed to follow cold winters. Both the Tangshan and Yongshan Pass earthquakes were preceded by unusually warm years and relatively high winter temperatures.

  10. Ionospheric precursors for crustal earthquakes in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Perrone

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Crustal earthquakes with magnitude 6.0>M≥5.5 observed in Italy for the period 1979–2009 including the last one at L'Aquila on 6 April 2009 were considered to check if the earlier obtained relationships for ionospheric precursors for strong Japanese earthquakes are valid for the Italian moderate earthquakes. The ionospheric precursors are based on the observed variations of the sporadic E-layer parameters (h'Es, fbEs and foF2 at the ionospheric station Rome. Empirical dependencies for the seismo-ionospheric disturbances relating the earthquake magnitude and the epicenter distance are obtained and they have been shown to be similar to those obtained earlier for Japanese earthquakes. The dependences indicate the process of spreading the disturbance from the epicenter towards periphery during the earthquake preparation process. Large lead times for the precursor occurrence (up to 34 days for M=5.8–5.9 tells about a prolong preparation period. A possibility of using the obtained relationships for the earthquakes prediction is discussed.

  11. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-15

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  12. Overestimation of the earthquake hazard along the Himalaya: constraints in bracketing of medieval earthquakes from paleoseismic studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Shreya; Malik, Javed N.

    2017-12-01

    The Himalaya is one of the most seismically active regions of the world. The occurrence of several large magnitude earthquakes viz. 1905 Kangra earthquake (Mw 7.8), 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.2), 1950 Assam earthquake (Mw 8.4), 2005 Kashmir (Mw 7.6), and 2015 Gorkha (Mw 7.8) are the testimony to ongoing tectonic activity. In the last few decades, tremendous efforts have been made along the Himalayan arc to understand the patterns of earthquake occurrences, size, extent, and return periods. Some of the large magnitude earthquakes produced surface rupture, while some remained blind. Furthermore, due to the incompleteness of the earthquake catalogue, a very few events can be correlated with medieval earthquakes. Based on the existing paleoseismic data certainly, there exists a complexity to precisely determine the extent of surface rupture of these earthquakes and also for those events, which occurred during historic times. In this paper, we have compiled the paleo-seismological data and recalibrated the radiocarbon ages from the trenches excavated by previous workers along the entire Himalaya and compared earthquake scenario with the past. Our studies suggest that there were multiple earthquake events with overlapping surface ruptures in small patches with an average rupture length of 300 km limiting Mw 7.8-8.0 for the Himalayan arc, rather than two or three giant earthquakes rupturing the whole front. It has been identified that the large magnitude Himalayan earthquakes, such as 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, and 1950 Assam, that have occurred within a time frame of 45 years. Now, if these events are dated, there is a high possibility that within the range of ±50 years, they may be considered as the remnant of one giant earthquake rupturing the entire Himalayan arc. Therefore, leading to an overestimation of seismic hazard scenario in Himalaya.

  13. Effects of magnitude, depth, and time on cellular seismology forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Steven Wolf

    This study finds that, in most cases analyzed to date, past seismicity tends to delineate zones where future earthquakes are likely to occur. Network seismicity catalogs for the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), Australia (AUS), California (CA), and Alaska (AK) are analyzed using modified versions of the Cellular Seismology (CS) method of Kafka (2002, 2007). The percentage of later occurring earthquakes located near earlier occurring earthquakes typically exceeds the expected percentage for randomly distributed later occurring earthquakes, and the specific percentage is influenced by several variables, including magnitude, depth, time, and tectonic setting. At 33% map area coverage, hit percents are typically 85-95% in the NMSZ, 50-60% in AUS, 75-85% in CA, and 75-85% in AK. Statistical significance testing is performed on trials analyzing the same variables so that the overall regions can be compared, although some tests are inconclusive due to the small number of earthquake sample sizes. These results offer useful insights into understanding the capabilities and limits of CS studies, which can provide guidance for improving the seismicity-based components of seismic hazard assessments.

  14. Method for forecasting an earthquake from precursor signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farnworth, D.F.

    1996-01-01

    A method for forecasting an earthquake from precursor signals by employing characteristic first electromagnetic signals, second, seismically induced electromagnetic signals, seismically induced mechanical signals, and infrasonic acoustic signals which have been observed to precede an earthquake. From a first electromagnetic signal, a magnitude, depth beneath the surface of the earth, distance, latitude, longitude, and first and second forecasts of the time of occurrence of the impending earthquake may be derived. From a second, seismically induced electromagnetic signal and the mechanical signal, third and fourth forecasts of the time of occurrence of an impending earthquake determined from the analysis above, a magnitude, depth beneath the surface of the earth and fourth and fifth forecasts of the time of occurrence of the impending earthquake may be derived. The forecasts of time available from the above analyses range from up to five weeks to substantially within one hour in advance of the earthquake. (author)

  15. Threat of an earthquake right under the capital in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rikitake, T.

    1990-01-01

    Tokyo, Japan's capital, has been enjoying a seismically quiet period following the 1923 Kanto earthquake of magnitude 7.9 that killed more than 140,000 people. Such a quiet period seems likely to be a repetition of the 80-year quiescence after the great 1703 Genroku earthquake of magntidue 8.2 that occurred in an epicentral area adjacent to that of the 1923 Kanto earthquake. In 1784, seismic activity immediately under the capital area revived with occasional occurrence of magnitude 6 to 7 shocks. Earthquakes of this class tended to occur more frequently as time went on and they eventually culminated in the 1923 Kanto earthquake. As more than 60 years have passed since the Kanto earthquake, we may well expect another revival of activity immediately under the capital area. 

  16. Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

    2014-12-04

    When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake's parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data.

  17. Prediction of site specific ground motion for large earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamae, Katsuhiro; Irikura, Kojiro; Fukuchi, Yasunaga.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, we apply the semi-empirical synthesis method by IRIKURA (1983, 1986) to the estimation of site specific ground motion using accelerograms observed at Kumatori in Osaka prefecture. Target earthquakes used here are a comparatively distant earthquake (Δ=95 km, M=5.6) caused by the YAMASAKI fault and a near earthquake (Δ=27 km, M=5.6). The results obtained are as follows. 1) The accelerograms from the distant earthquake (M=5.6) are synthesized using the aftershock records (M=4.3) for 1983 YAMASAKI fault earthquake whose source parameters have been obtained by other authors from the hypocentral distribution of the aftershocks. The resultant synthetic motions show a good agreement with the observed ones. 2) The synthesis for a near earthquake (M=5.6, we call this target earthquake) are made using a small earthquake which occurred in the neighborhood of the target earthquake. Here, we apply two methods for giving the parameters for synthesis. One method is to use the parameters of YAMASAKI fault earthquake which has the same magnitude as the target earthquake, and the other is to use the parameters obtained from several existing empirical formulas. The resultant synthetic motion with the former parameters shows a good agreement with the observed one, but that with the latter does not. 3) We estimate the source parameters from the source spectra of several earthquakes which have been observed in this site. Consequently we find that the small earthquakes (M<4) as Green's functions should be carefully used because the stress drops are not constant. 4) We propose that we should designate not only the magnitudes but also seismic moments of the target earthquake and the small earthquake. (J.P.N.)

  18. 1/f and the Earthquake Problem: Scaling constraints that facilitate operational earthquake forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2012-12-01

    The difficulty of forecasting earthquakes can fundamentally be attributed to the self-similar, or "1/f", nature of seismic sequences. Specifically, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their magnitude m, or more accurately to their scalar moment M. With respect to this "1/f problem," it can be argued that catalog selection (or equivalently, determining catalog constraints) constitutes the most significant challenge to seismicity based earthquake forecasting. Here, we address and introduce a potential solution to this most daunting problem. Specifically, we introduce a framework to constrain, or partition, an earthquake catalog (a study region) in order to resolve local seismicity. In particular, we combine Gutenberg-Richter (GR), rupture length, and Omori scaling with various empirical measurements to relate the size (spatial and temporal extents) of a study area (or bins within a study area) to the local earthquake magnitude potential - the magnitude of earthquake the region is expected to experience. From this, we introduce a new type of time dependent hazard map for which the tuning parameter space is nearly fully constrained. In a similar fashion, by combining various scaling relations and also by incorporating finite extents (rupture length, area, and duration) as constraints, we develop a method to estimate the Omori (temporal) and spatial aftershock decay parameters as a function of the parent earthquake's magnitude m. From this formulation, we develop an ETAS type model that overcomes many point-source limitations of contemporary ETAS. These models demonstrate promise with respect to earthquake forecasting applications. Moreover, the methods employed suggest a general framework whereby earthquake and other complex-system, 1/f type, problems can be constrained from scaling relations and finite extents.; Record-breaking hazard map of southern California, 2012-08-06. "Warm" colors indicate local acceleration (elevated hazard

  19. Defeating Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

  20. Induced seismicity provides insight into why earthquake ruptures stop

    KAUST Repository

    Galis, Martin

    2017-12-21

    Injection-induced earthquakes pose a serious seismic hazard but also offer an opportunity to gain insight into earthquake physics. Currently used models relating the maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes to injection parameters do not incorporate rupture physics. We develop theoretical estimates, validated by simulations, of the size of ruptures induced by localized pore-pressure perturbations and propagating on prestressed faults. Our model accounts for ruptures growing beyond the perturbed area and distinguishes self-arrested from runaway ruptures. We develop a theoretical scaling relation between the largest magnitude of self-arrested earthquakes and the injected volume and find it consistent with observed maximum magnitudes of injection-induced earthquakes over a broad range of injected volumes, suggesting that, although runaway ruptures are possible, most injection-induced events so far have been self-arrested ruptures.

  1. Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Pei-Yang Lin

    2011-01-01

    Because of Taiwan’s unique geographical environment, earthquake disasters occur frequently in Taiwan. The Central Weather Bureau collated earthquake data from between 1901 and 2006 (Central Weather Bureau, 2007) and found that 97 earthquakes had occurred, of which, 52 resulted in casualties. The 921 Chichi Earthquake had the most profound impact. Because earthquakes have instant destructive power and current scientific technologies cannot provide precise early warnings in advance, earthquake ...

  2. Prediction of earthquakes: a data evaluation and exchange problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melchior, Paul

    1978-11-15

    Recent experiences in earthquake prediction are recalled. Precursor information seems to be available from geodetic measurements, hydrological and geochemical measurements, electric and magnetic measurements, purely seismic phenomena, and zoological phenomena; some new methods are proposed. A list of possible earthquake triggers is given. The dilatancy model is contrasted with a dry model; they seem to be equally successful. In conclusion, the space and time range of the precursors is discussed in relation to the magnitude of earthquakes. (RWR)

  3. Napa Earthquake impact on water systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.

    2014-12-01

    South Napa earthquake occurred in Napa, California on August 24 at 3am, local time, and the magnitude is 6.0. The earthquake was the largest in SF Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Economic loss topped $ 1 billion. Wine makers cleaning up and estimated the damage on tourism. Around 15,000 cases of lovely cabernet were pouring into the garden at the Hess Collection. Earthquake potentially raise water pollution risks, could cause water crisis. CA suffered water shortage recent years, and it could be helpful on how to prevent underground/surface water pollution from earthquake. This research gives a clear view on drinking water system in CA, pollution on river systems, as well as estimation on earthquake impact on water supply. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta (close to Napa), is the center of the state's water distribution system, delivering fresh water to more than 25 million residents and 3 million acres of farmland. Delta water conveyed through a network of levees is crucial to Southern California. The drought has significantly curtailed water export, and salt water intrusion reduced fresh water outflows. Strong shaking from a nearby earthquake can cause saturated, loose, sandy soils liquefaction, and could potentially damage major delta levee systems near Napa. Napa earthquake is a wake-up call for Southern California. It could potentially damage freshwater supply system.

  4. Plant state display device after occurrence of earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitada, Yoshio; Yonekura, Kazuyoshi.

    1992-01-01

    If a nuclear power plant should encounter earthquakes, an earthquake response analysis value previously stored and the earthquakes observed are compared to judge the magnitude of the earthquakes. From the result of the judgement, a possibility that an abnormality is recognized in plant equipment systems after the earthquakes is evaluated, in comparison with a previously stored earthquake fragility data base of each of equipment/systems. The result of the evaluation is displayed in a central control chamber. The plant equipment system is judged such that abnormalities are recognized at a high probability is evaluated by a previously stored earthquake PSA method for the influence of the abnormality on plant safety, and the result is displayed in the central control chamber. (I.S.)

  5. "Peking Review's" Coverage of the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaohong

    Triggered by inconsistencies and omissions in the reporting of casualty statistics and earthquake magnitude of the 1976 Tangshen (China) earthquake, this paper examines coverage of the natural disaster by "Peking Review," China's only foreign language news weekly. The paper's main section analyzes in detail "Peking Review's"…

  6. Integrated Circuit Stellar Magnitude Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackburn, James A.

    1978-01-01

    Describes an electronic circuit which can be used to demonstrate the stellar magnitude scale. Six rectangular light-emitting diodes with independently adjustable duty cycles represent stars of magnitudes 1 through 6. Experimentally verifies the logarithmic response of the eye. (Author/GA)

  7. Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation of Taiwan earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Liu, Q.; Tromp, J.; Komatitsch, D.; Liang, W.; Huang, B.

    2013-12-01

    We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 minutes after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 minutes for a 70 sec ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

  8. Apparatus for isolating electric generators or like other facilities upon occurrence of earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toshimitsu, Satoru.

    1983-01-01

    Purpose: To prevent, upon occurrence of failures in a facility with poor earthquake-proof performance, undesired secondary effects caused by the above failures from prevailing on other facilities with excellent earthquake-proof performance. Constitution: An isolation valve is disposed at the midway of pipeways communicating facilities of different earthquake-proof performances. When the occurrence of earthquake and the magnitude thereof are detected and judged by an earthquake detection and control device, the isolation valve between the facility of excellent earthquake-proof performance and the facility of poor earthquake-proof performance is opened. Consequently, if the facility of poor earthquake-proof performance is failed, no fluid is issued from the facility of the excellent earthquake-proof performance to thereby improve the earthquake safety. (Kawakami, Y.)

  9. Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami: Humanitarian Assistance and Relief Operations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Margesson, Rhoda

    2005-01-01

    On December 26, 2004, a magnitude 9.0 undersea earthquake off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, unleashed a tsunami that affected more than 12 countries throughout south and southeast Asia and stretched as far...

  10. The 1985 central chile earthquake: a repeat of previous great earthquakes in the region?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comte, D; Eisenberg, A; Lorca, E; Pardo, M; Ponce, L; Saragoni, R; Singh, S K; Suárez, G

    1986-07-25

    A great earthquake (surface-wave magnitude, 7.8) occurred along the coast of central Chile on 3 March 1985, causing heavy damage to coastal towns. Intense foreshock activity near the epicenter of the main shock occurred for 11 days before the earthquake. The aftershocks of the 1985 earthquake define a rupture area of 170 by 110 square kilometers. The earthquake was forecast on the basis of the nearly constant repeat time (83 +/- 9 years) of great earthquakes in this region. An analysis of previous earthquakes suggests that the rupture lengths of great shocks in the region vary by a factor of about 3. The nearly constant repeat time and variable rupture lengths cannot be reconciled with time- or slip-predictable models of earthquake recurrence. The great earthquakes in the region seem to involve a variable rupture mode and yet, for unknown reasons, remain periodic. Historical data suggest that the region south of the 1985 rupture zone should now be considered a gap of high seismic potential that may rupture in a great earthquake in the next few tens of years.

  11. Earthquake Swarm Along the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, K C; Kanamori, H; Pechmann, J C; Fuis, G

    1978-09-01

    Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude foreshock sequences, such as tight clustering of hypocenters and time-dependent rotations of stress axes inferred from focal mechanisms. However, because of our present lack of understanding of the processes that precede earthquake faulting, the implications of the swarm for future large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault are unknown.

  12. Revisiting the Canterbury earthquake sequence after the 14 February 2016 Mw 5.7 event

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herman, Matthew W.; Furlong, Kevin P.

    2016-01-01

    On 14 February 2016, an Mw 5.7 (GNS Science moment magnitude) earthquake ruptured offshore east of Christchurch, New Zealand. This earthquake occurred in an area that had previously experienced significant seismicity from 2010 to 2012 during the Canterbury earthquake sequence, starting with the 2010

  13. The cause of larger local magnitude (Mj) in western Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawamoto, H.; Furumura, T.

    2017-12-01

    The local magnitude of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) scale (Mj) in Japan sometimes show a significant discrepancy between Mw. The Mj is calculated using the amplitude of the horizontal component of ground displacement recorded by seismometers with the natural period of T0=5 s using Katsumata et al. (2004). A typical example of such a discrepancy in estimating Mj was an overestimation of the 2000 Western Tottori earthquake (Mj=7.3, Mw=6.7; hereafter referred to as event T). In this study, we examined the discrepancy between Mj and Mw for recent large earthquakes occurring in Japan.We found that the most earthquakes with larger Mj (>Mw) occur in western Japan while the earthquakes in northern Japan show reasonable Mj (=Mw). To understand the cause of such larger Mj for western Japan earthquakes we examined the strong motion record from the K-NET and KiK-net network for the event T and other earthquakes for reference. The observed ground displacement record from the event T shows a distinctive Love wave packet in tangential motion with a dominant period of about T=5 s which propagates long distances without showing strong dispersions. On the other hand, the ground motions from the earthquakes in northeastern Japan do not have such surface wave packet, and attenuation of ground motion is significant. Therefore, the overestimation of the Mj for earthquakes in western Japan may be attributed to efficient generation and propagation properties of Love wave probably relating to the crustal structure of western Japan. To explain this, we then conducted a numerical simulation of seismic wave propagation using 3D sedimentary layer model (JIVSM; Koketsu et al., 2012) and the source model of the event T. The result demonstrated the efficient generation of Love wave from the shallow strike-slip source which propagates long distances in western Japan without significant dispersions. On the other hand, the generation of surface wave was not so efficient when using a

  14. Geomagnetic anomalies - possible earthquake precursors - linked with 2004 significant seismic activity in Vrancea, Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enescu, D.

    2005-01-01

    The association between a precursory geomagnetic anomaly and a Vrancea earthquake of moderate-to-high magnitude (M W = 6.3) followed by weaker earthquakes (M W W ≤ 6.3 the conclusion of our earlier papers, i.e., that the great majority of Vrancea earthquakes of magnitudes 3.7 ≤ M W ≤5.0 were accompanied by observable precursory electromagnetic anomalies. Our works show that neither the precursor time nor the amplitude of the precursory magnetic anomaly can be linked reliably with the magnitude of the anticipated earthquake. Knowing the way electric resistivity varies ahead of an earthquake, we can assert that the earthquake-precursory growth in geomagnetic impedance is matched by an earthquake-precursory decrease of electric resistivity. (authors)

  15. Memory effect in M ≥ 6 earthquakes of South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jeen-Hwa

    2013-07-01

    The M ≥ 6 earthquakes occurred in the South-North Seismic Belt, Mainland China, during 1901-2008 are taken to study the possible existence of memory effect in large earthquakes. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time. The migration of earthquakes in study is taken to discuss the possible correlation between events. The phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Together with all kinds of given information, we conclude that the earthquakes in study is short-term correlated and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.

  16. Remote Triggering of the Mw 6.9 Hokkaido Earthquake as a Result of the Mw 6.6 Indonesian Earthquake on September 11, 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Horng Lin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Only just recently, the phenomenon of earthquakes being triggered by a distant earthquake has been well established. Yet, most of the triggered earthquakes have been limited to small earthquakes (M < 3. Also, the exact triggering mechanism for earthquakes is still not clear. Here I show how one strong earthquake (Mw = 6.6 is capable of triggering another (Mw = 6.9 at a remote distance (~4750 km. On September 11, 2008, two strong earthquakes with magnitudes (Mw of 6.6 and 6.9 hit respectively in Indonesia and Japan within a short interval of ~21 minutes time. Careful examination of broadband seismograms recorded in Japan shows that the Hokkaido earthquake occurred just as the surface waves generated by the Indonesia earthquake arrived. Although the peak dynamic stress estimated at the focus of the Hokkaido earthquake was just reaching the lower bound for the capability of triggering earthquakes in general, a more plausible mechanism for triggering an earthquake might be attributed to the change of a fault property by fluid infiltration. These observations suggest that the Hokkaido earthquake was likely triggered from a remote distance by the surface waves generated from the Indonesia earthquake. If some more cases can be observed, a temporal warning of possible interaction between strong earthquakes might be concerned in the future.

  17. Short presentation on some researches activities about near field earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donald, John

    2002-01-01

    The major hazard posed by earthquakes is often thought to be due to moderate to large magnitude events. However, there have been many cases where earthquakes of moderate and even small magnitude have caused very significant destruction when they have coincided with population centres. Even though the area of intense ground shaking caused by such events is generally small, the epicentral motions can be severe enough to cause damage even in well-engineered structures. Two issues are addressed here, the first being the identification of the minimum earthquake magnitude likely to cause damage to engineered structures and the limits of the near-field for small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes. The second issue addressed is whether features of near-field ground motions such as directivity, which can significantly enhance the destructive potential, occur in small-to-moderate magnitude events. The accelerograms from the 1986 San Salvador (El Salvador) earthquake indicate that it may be non conservative to assume that near-field directivity effects only need to be considered for earthquakes of moment magnitude M 6.5 and greater. (author)

  18. EOP Current Magnitude and Direction

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data contain shipboard current magnitudes and directions collected in the Pacific, both pelagic and near shore environments. Data is collected using an RD...

  19. Fast Moment Magnitude Determination from P-wave Trains for Bucharest Rapid Early Warning System (BREWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizurek, Grzegorz; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Wiszniowski, Jan

    2017-03-01

    Bucharest, with a population of approximately 2 million people, has suffered damage from earthquakes in the Vrancea seismic zone, which is located about 170 km from Bucharest, at a depth of 80-200 km. Consequently, an earthquake early warning system (Bucharest Rapid earthquake Early Warning System or BREWS) was constructed to provide some warning about impending shaking from large earthquakes in the Vrancea zone. In order to provide quick estimates of magnitude, seismic moment was first determined from P-waves and then a moment magnitude was determined from the moment. However, this magnitude may not be consistent with previous estimates of magnitude from the Romanian Seismic Network. This paper introduces the algorithm using P-wave spectral levels and compares them with catalog estimates. The testing procedure used waveforms from about 90 events with catalog magnitudes from 3.5 to 5.4. Corrections to the P-wave determined magnitudes according to dominant intermediate depth events mechanism were tested for November 22, 2014, M5.6 and October 17, M6 events. The corrections worked well, but unveiled overestimation of the average magnitude result of about 0.2 magnitude unit in the case of shallow depth event ( H < 60 km). The P-wave spectral approach allows for the relatively fast estimates of magnitude for use in BREWS. The average correction taking into account the most common focal mechanism for radiation pattern coefficient may lead to overestimation of the magnitude for shallow events of about 0.2 magnitude unit. However, in case of events of intermediate depth of M6 the resulting M w is underestimated at about 0.1-0.2. We conclude that our P-wave spectral approach is sufficiently robust for the needs of BREWS for both shallow and intermediate depth events.

  20. Coping with earthquakes induced by fluid injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarr, Arthur F.; Bekins, Barbara; Burkardt, Nina; Dewey, James W.; Earle, Paul S.; Ellsworth, William L.; Ge, Shemin; Hickman, Stephen H.; Holland, Austin F.; Majer, Ernest; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Sheehan, Anne

    2015-01-01

    Large areas of the United States long considered geologically stable with little or no detected seismicity have recently become seismically active. The increase in earthquake activity began in the mid-continent starting in 2001 (1) and has continued to rise. In 2014, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes with magnitudes (M) of 3 and greater in Oklahoma exceeded that in California (see the figure). This elevated activity includes larger earthquakes, several with M > 5, that have caused significant damage (2, 3). To a large extent, the increasing rate of earthquakes in the mid-continent is due to fluid-injection activities used in modern energy production (1, 4, 5). We explore potential avenues for mitigating effects of induced seismicity. Although the United States is our focus here, Canada, China, the UK, and others confront similar problems associated with oil and gas production, whereas quakes induced by geothermal activities affect Switzerland, Germany, and others.

  1. Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

    2014-01-24

    Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.

  2. Earthquakes - a danger to deep-lying repositories?; erdbeben: eine gefahr fuer tiefenlager?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-03-15

    This booklet issued by the Swiss National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste NAGRA takes a look at geological factors concerning earthquakes and the safety of deep-lying repositories for nuclear waste. The geological processes involved in the occurrence of earthquakes are briefly looked at and the definitions for magnitude and intensity of earthquakes are discussed. Examples of damage caused by earthquakes are given. The earthquake situation in Switzerland is looked at and the effects of earthquakes on sub-surface structures and deep-lying repositories are discussed. Finally, the ideas proposed for deep-lying geological repositories for nuclear wastes are discussed.

  3. The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: effects on communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Wallace R.; Kachadoorian, Reuben; Coulter, Henry W.; Migliaccio, Ralph R.; Waller, Roger M.; Stanley, Kirk W.; Lemke, Richard W.; Plafker, George; Eckel, Edwin B.; Mayo, Lawrence R.

    1969-01-01

    This is the second in a series of six reports that the U.S. Geological Survey published on the results of a comprehensive geologic study that began, as a reconnaissance survey, within 24 hours after the March 27, 1964, Magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake and extended, as detailed investigations, through several field seasons. The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was the largest earthquake in the U.S. since 1700. Professional Paper 542, in 7 parts, describes the effects of the earthquake on Alaskan communities.

  4. Statistical Approaches Regarding the Evolution of the Earthquakes in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling of the values regarding the magnitudes of the earthquakes in Romania, respectively the depth of the earthquakes, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”, which is a method through we can to reflect the trend line of the best fit concerning a model. If we achieve in time and space an analysis concerning the earthquakes, we can to say that any earthquake has an unexpected character and the fortuitous factor playes the principal role.

  5. Land-Ocean-Atmospheric Coupling Associated with Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, A. K.; Singh, R. P.; Kumar, S.; Cervone, G.; Kafatos, M.; Zlotnicki, J.

    2007-12-01

    Earthquakes are well known to occur along the plate boundaries and also on the stable shield. The recent studies have shown existence of strong coupling between land-ocean-atmospheric parameters associated with the earthquakes. We have carried out detailed analysis of multi sensor data (optical and microwave remote) to show existence of strong coupling between land-ocean-atmospheric parameters associated with the earthquakes with focal depth up to 30 km and magnitude greater than 5.5. Complimentary nature of various land, ocean and atmospheric parameters will be demonstrated in getting an early warning information about an impending earthquake.

  6. New geological perspectives on earthquake recurrence models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, D.P.

    1997-01-01

    In most areas of the world the record of historical seismicity is too short or uncertain to accurately characterize the future distribution of earthquakes of different sizes in time and space. Most faults have not ruptured once, let alone repeatedly. Ultimately, the ability to correctly forecast the magnitude, location, and probability of future earthquakes depends on how well one can quantify the past behavior of earthquake sources. Paleoseismological trenching of active faults, historical surface ruptures, liquefaction features, and shaking-induced ground deformation structures provides fundamental information on the past behavior of earthquake sources. These studies quantify (a) the timing of individual past earthquakes and fault slip rates, which lead to estimates of recurrence intervals and the development of recurrence models and (b) the amount of displacement during individual events, which allows estimates of the sizes of past earthquakes on a fault. When timing and slip per event are combined with information on fault zone geometry and structure, models that define individual rupture segments can be developed. Paleoseismicity data, in the form of timing and size of past events, provide a window into the driving mechanism of the earthquake engine--the cycle of stress build-up and release

  7. Earthquake location in island arcs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engdahl, E.R.; Dewey, J.W.; Fujita, K.

    1982-01-01

    A comprehensive data set of selected teleseismic P-wave arrivals and local-network P- and S-wave arrivals from large earthquakes occurring at all depths within a small section of the central Aleutians is used to examine the general problem of earthquake location in island arcs. Reference hypocenters for this special data set are determined for shallow earthquakes from local-network data and for deep earthquakes from combined local and teleseismic data by joint inversion for structure and location. The high-velocity lithospheric slab beneath the central Aleutians may displace hypocenters that are located using spherically symmetric Earth models; the amount of displacement depends on the position of the earthquakes with respect to the slab and on whether local or teleseismic data are used to locate the earthquakes. Hypocenters for trench and intermediate-depth events appear to be minimally biased by the effects of slab structure on rays to teleseismic stations. However, locations of intermediate-depth events based on only local data are systematically displaced southwards, the magnitude of the displacement being proportional to depth. Shallow-focus events along the main thrust zone, although well located using only local-network data, are severely shifted northwards and deeper, with displacements as large as 50 km, by slab effects on teleseismic travel times. Hypocenters determined by a method that utilizes seismic ray tracing through a three-dimensional velocity model of the subduction zone, derived by thermal modeling, are compared to results obtained by the method of joint hypocenter determination (JHD) that formally assumes a laterally homogeneous velocity model over the source region and treats all raypath anomalies as constant station corrections to the travel-time curve. The ray-tracing method has the theoretical advantage that it accounts for variations in travel-time anomalies within a group of events distributed over a sizable region of a dipping, high

  8. Central Asia earthquake catalogue from ancient time to 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya N. Mikhailova

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we present the seismic catalogue compiled for Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in the framework of the Earthquake Model Central Asia (EMCA project. The catalogue from 2000 B.C. to 2009 A.D. is composed by 33,034 earthquakes in the MLH magnitude (magnitude by surface waves on horizontal components widely used in practice of the former USSR countries range from 1.5 to 8.3. The catalogue includes both macroseimic and instrumental constrained data, with about 32,793 earthquake after 1900 A.D. The main sources and procedure used to compile the catalogues are discussed, and the comparison with the ISC-GEM catalogue presented. Magnitude of completeness analysis shows that the catalogue is complete down to magnitude 4 from 1959 and to magnitude 7 from 1873, whereas the obtained regional b value is 0.805.

  9. Seismicity Controlled by a Frictional Afterslip During a Small-Magnitude Seismic Sequence (ML Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canitano, Alexandre; Godano, Maxime; Hsu, Ya-Ju; Lee, Hsin-Ming; Linde, Alan T.; Sacks, Selwyn

    2018-02-01

    We report evidence for frictional afterslip at shallow depths (about 5 to 7 km) during a small-magnitude seismic sequence (with MLTaiwan. The afterslip, which was recorded by a nearby borehole dilatometer, lasted about a month with a cumulative geodetic moment magnitude of 4.8 ± 0.2. The afterslip comprised two stages and controlled the aftershock sequence. The first postseismic stage, which followed a ML 4.6 earthquake, lasted about 6 h and mostly controlled the ruptures of neighboring asperities (e.g., multiplets) near the hypocenter. Then, a 4 week duration large afterslip event following a ML 4.9 earthquake controlled the rate of aftershocks during its first 2 days through brittle creep. The study presents a rare case of simultaneous seismological and geodetic observations for afterslip following earthquakes with magnitude lower than 5. Furthermore, the geodetic moment of the postseismic phase is at least equivalent to the coseismic moment of the sequence.

  10. Exploring Earthquakes in Real-Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, T. K.; Kafka, A. L.; Coleman, B.; Taber, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquakes capture the attention of students and inspire them to explore the Earth. Adding the ability to view and explore recordings of significant and newsworthy earthquakes in real-time makes the subject even more compelling. To address this opportunity, the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), in collaboration with Moravian College, developed ';jAmaSeis', a cross-platform application that enables students to access real-time earthquake waveform data. Students can watch as the seismic waves are recorded on their computer, and can be among the first to analyze the data from an earthquake. jAmaSeis facilitates student centered investigations of seismological concepts using either a low-cost educational seismograph or streamed data from other educational seismographs or from any seismic station that sends data to the IRIS Data Management System. After an earthquake, students can analyze the seismograms to determine characteristics of earthquakes such as time of occurrence, distance from the epicenter to the station, magnitude, and location. The software has been designed to provide graphical clues to guide students in the analysis and assist in their interpretations. Since jAmaSeis can simultaneously record up to three stations from anywhere on the planet, there are numerous opportunities for student driven investigations. For example, students can explore differences in the seismograms from different distances from an earthquake and compare waveforms from different azimuthal directions. Students can simultaneously monitor seismicity at a tectonic plate boundary and in the middle of the plate regardless of their school location. This can help students discover for themselves the ideas underlying seismic wave propagation, regional earthquake hazards, magnitude-frequency relationships, and the details of plate tectonics. The real-time nature of the data keeps the investigations dynamic, and offers students countless opportunities to explore.

  11. State of damage of radiation facilities in great Hanshin earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The southern Hyogo Prefecture earthquake of magnitude 7.2 occurred in the early morning of January 17, 1995. The outline of the earthquake and dead and injured, the damages of buildings, life lines, roads, railways and harbors, liquefaction phenomena, the state of occurrence of fires and so on are reported. The districts where the earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger occurred, and the radiation facilities in those districts are shown. The state of damage of radiation facilities in past earthquakes is summarized. From January 17 to 19 after the earthquake, Science and Technology Agency gave necessary instruction to and heard the state of damage from 79 permitted facilities in the areas of magnitude 7 or 6 by telephone, and received the report that there was not the fear of radiation damage in all facilities. Also the state of damage of radiation facilities was investigated at the actual places, and the questionnaires on the state of radiation facilities and the action at the time of the earthquake were performed. The state of radiation facilities accompanying the earthquake is reported. The matters to be reflected to the countermeasures to earthquakes anew for the protection of facilities, communication system, facility checkup system and the resumption of use are pointed out. (K.I.)

  12. Adaptively smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Y. Kagan

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available We present a model for estimation of the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m ≥ 4.95 in Italy. This model is a modified version of that proposed for California, USA, by Helmstetter et al. [2007] and Werner et al. [2010a], and it approximates seismicity using a spatially heterogeneous, temporally homogeneous Poisson point process. The temporal, spatial and magnitude dimensions are entirely decoupled. Magnitudes are independently and identically distributed according to a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We have estimated the spatial distribution of future seismicity by smoothing the locations of past earthquakes listed in two Italian catalogs: a short instrumental catalog, and a longer instrumental and historic catalog. The bandwidth of the adaptive spatial kernel is estimated by optimizing the predictive power of the kernel estimate of the spatial earthquake density in retrospective forecasts. When available and reliable, we used small earthquakes of m ≥ 2.95 to reveal active fault structures and 29 probable future epicenters. By calibrating the model with these two catalogs of different durations to create two forecasts, we intend to quantify the loss (or gain of predictability incurred when only a short, but recent, data record is available. Both forecasts were scaled to five and ten years, and have been submitted to the Italian prospective forecasting experiment of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP. An earlier forecast from the model was submitted by Helmstetter et al. [2007] to the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM experiment in California, and with more than half of the five-year experimental period over, the forecast has performed better than the others.

  13. Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

    1996-04-30

    The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

  14. Acute myocardial infarction and stress cardiomyopathy following the Christchurch earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Christina; Elliott, John; Troughton, Richard; Frampton, Christopher; Smyth, David; Crozier, Ian; Bridgman, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Christchurch, New Zealand, was struck by 2 major earthquakes at 4:36 am on 4 September 2010, magnitude 7.1 and at 12:51 pm on 22 February 2011, magnitude 6.3. Both events caused widespread destruction. Christchurch Hospital was the region's only acute care hospital. It remained functional following both earthquakes. We were able to examine the effects of the 2 earthquakes on acute cardiac presentations. Patients admitted under Cardiology in Christchurch Hospital 3 week prior to and 5 weeks following both earthquakes were analysed, with corresponding control periods in September 2009 and February 2010. Patients were categorised based on diagnosis: ST elevation myocardial infarction, Non ST elevation myocardial infarction, stress cardiomyopathy, unstable angina, stable angina, non cardiac chest pain, arrhythmia and others. There was a significant increase in overall admissions (pearthquake. This pattern was not seen after the early afternoon February earthquake. Instead, there was a very large number of stress cardiomyopathy admissions with 21 cases (95% CI 2.6-6.4) in 4 days. There had been 6 stress cardiomyopathy cases after the first earthquake (95% CI 0.44-2.62). Statistical analysis showed this to be a significant difference between the earthquakes (pearthquake triggered a large increase in ST elevation myocardial infarction and a few stress cardiomyopathy cases. The early afternoon February earthquake caused significantly more stress cardiomyopathy. Two major earthquakes occurring at different times of day differed in their effect on acute cardiac events.

  15. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  16. Numerical Analyses of Earthquake Induced Liquefaction and Deformation Behaviour of an Upstream Tailings Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Auchar Zardari

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Much of the seismic activity of northern Sweden consists of micro-earthquakes occurring near postglacial faults. However, larger magnitude earthquakes do occur in Sweden, and earthquake statistics indicate that a magnitude 5 event is likely to occur once every century. This paper presents dynamic analyses of the effects of larger earthquakes on an upstream tailings dam at the Aitik copper mine in northern Sweden. The analyses were performed to evaluate the potential for liquefaction and to assess stability of the dam under two specific earthquakes: a commonly occurring magnitude 3.6 event and a more extreme earthquake of magnitude 5.8. The dynamic analyses were carried out with the finite element program PLAXIS using a recently implemented constitutive model called UBCSAND. The results indicate that the magnitude 5.8 earthquake would likely induce liquefaction in a limited zone located below the ground surface near the embankment dikes. It is interpreted that stability of the dam may not be affected due to the limited extent of the liquefied zone. Both types of earthquakes are predicted to induce tolerable magnitudes of displacements. The results of the postseismic slope stability analysis, performed for a state after a seismic event, suggest that the dam is stable during both the earthquakes.

  17. Absolute magnitudes by statistical parallaxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heck, A.

    1978-01-01

    The author describes an algorithm for stellar luminosity calibrations (based on the principle of maximum likelihood) which allows the calibration of relations of the type: Msub(i)=sup(N)sub(j=1)Σqsub(j)Csub(ij), i=1,...,n, where n is the size of the sample at hand, Msub(i) are the individual absolute magnitudes, Csub(ij) are observational quantities (j=1,...,N), and qsub(j) are the coefficients to be determined. If one puts N=1 and Csub(iN)=1, one has q 1 =M(mean), the mean absolute magnitude of the sample. As additional output, the algorithm provides one also with the dispersion in magnitude of the sample sigmasub(M), the mean solar motion (U,V,W) and the corresponding velocity ellipsoid (sigmasub(u), sigmasub(v), sigmasub(w). The use of this algorithm is illustrated. (Auth.)

  18. Stress drops of induced and tectonic earthquakes in the central United States are indistinguishable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yihe; Ellsworth, William L; Beroza, Gregory C

    2017-08-01

    Induced earthquakes currently pose a significant hazard in the central United States, but there is considerable uncertainty about the severity of their ground motions. We measure stress drops of 39 moderate-magnitude induced and tectonic earthquakes in the central United States and eastern North America. Induced earthquakes, more than half of which are shallower than 5 km, show a comparable median stress drop to tectonic earthquakes in the central United States that are dominantly strike-slip but a lower median stress drop than that of tectonic earthquakes in the eastern North America that are dominantly reverse-faulting. This suggests that ground motion prediction equations developed for tectonic earthquakes can be applied to induced earthquakes if the effects of depth and faulting style are properly considered. Our observation leads to the notion that, similar to tectonic earthquakes, induced earthquakes are driven by tectonic stresses.

  19. Evaluating spatial and temporal relationships between an earthquake cluster near Entiat, central Washington, and the large December 1872 Entiat earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocher, Thomas M.; Blakely, Richard J.; Sherrod, Brian

    2017-01-01

    We investigate spatial and temporal relations between an ongoing and prolific seismicity cluster in central Washington, near Entiat, and the 14 December 1872 Entiat earthquake, the largest historic crustal earthquake in Washington. A fault scarp produced by the 1872 earthquake lies within the Entiat cluster; the locations and areas of both the cluster and the estimated 1872 rupture surface are comparable. Seismic intensities and the 1–2 m of coseismic displacement suggest a magnitude range between 6.5 and 7.0 for the 1872 earthquake. Aftershock forecast models for (1) the first several hours following the 1872 earthquake, (2) the largest felt earthquakes from 1900 to 1974, and (3) the seismicity within the Entiat cluster from 1976 through 2016 are also consistent with this magnitude range. Based on this aftershock modeling, most of the current seismicity in the Entiat cluster could represent aftershocks of the 1872 earthquake. Other earthquakes, especially those with long recurrence intervals, have long‐lived aftershock sequences, including the Mw">MwMw 7.5 1891 Nobi earthquake in Japan, with aftershocks continuing 100 yrs after the mainshock. Although we do not rule out ongoing tectonic deformation in this region, a long‐lived aftershock sequence can account for these observations.

  20. Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sarfraz; Waseem, Muhammad; Khan, Muhammad Asif; Ahmed, Waqas

    2018-03-01

    A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40-83° N and 20-40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0-8.3 moment magnitude (M W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.

  1. Modelling the elements of country vulnerability to earthquake disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asef, M R

    2008-09-01

    Earthquakes have probably been the most deadly form of natural disaster in the past century. Diversity of earthquake specifications in terms of magnitude, intensity and frequency at the semicontinental scale has initiated various kinds of disasters at a regional scale. Additionally, diverse characteristics of countries in terms of population size, disaster preparedness, economic strength and building construction development often causes an earthquake of a certain characteristic to have different impacts on the affected region. This research focuses on the appropriate criteria for identifying the severity of major earthquake disasters based on some key observed symptoms. Accordingly, the article presents a methodology for identification and relative quantification of severity of earthquake disasters. This has led to an earthquake disaster vulnerability model at the country scale. Data analysis based on this model suggested a quantitative, comparative and meaningful interpretation of the vulnerability of concerned countries, and successfully explained which countries are more vulnerable to major disasters.

  2. Seismic-electromagnetic precursors of Romania's Vrancea earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enescu, B.D.; Enescu, C.; Constantin, A. P.

    1999-01-01

    Diagrams were plotted from electromagnetic data that were recorded at Muntele Rosu Observatory during December 1996 to January 1997, and December 1997 to September 1998. The times when Vrancea earthquakes of magnitudes M ≥ 3.9 occurred within these periods are marked on the diagrams.The parameters of the earthquakes are given in a table which also includes information on the magnetic and electric anomalies (perturbations) preceding these earthquakes. The magnetic data prove that Vrancea earthquakes are preceded by magnetic perturbations that may be regarded as their short-term precursors. Perturbations, which could likewise be seen as short-term precursors of Vrancea earthquakes, are also noticed in the electric records. Still, a number of electric data do cast a doubt on their forerunning nature. Some suggestions are made in the end of the paper on how electromagnetic research should go ahead to be of use for Vrancea earthquake prediction. (authors)

  3. Understanding Magnitudes to Understand Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Florence

    2016-01-01

    Fractions are known to be difficult to learn and difficult to teach, yet they are vital for students to have access to further mathematical concepts. This article uses evidence to support teachers employing teaching methods that focus on the conceptual understanding of the magnitude of fractions.

  4. Megathrust earthquakes in Central Chile: What is next after the Maule 2010 earthquake?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madariaga, R.

    2013-05-01

    The 27 February 2010 Maule earthquake occurred in a well identified gap in the Chilean subduction zone. The event has now been studied in detail using both far-field, near field seismic and geodetic data, we will review this information gathered so far. The event broke a region that was much longer along strike than the gap left over from the 1835 Concepcion earthquake, sometimes called the Darwin earthquake because he was in the area when the earthquake occurred and made many observations. Recent studies of contemporary documents by Udias et al indicate that the area broken by the Maule earthquake in 2010 had previously broken by a similar earthquake in 1751, but several events in the magnitude 8 range occurred in the area principally in 1835 already mentioned and, more recently on 1 December 1928 to the North and on 21 May 1960 (1 1/2 days before the big Chilean earthquake of 1960). Currently the area of the 2010 earthquake and the region immediately to the North is undergoing a very large increase in seismicity with numerous clusters of seismicity that move along the plate interface. Examination of the seismicity of Chile of the 18th and 19th century show that the region immediately to the North of the 2010 earthquake broke in a very large megathrust event in July 1730. this is the largest known earthquake in central Chile. The region where this event occurred has broken in many occasions with M 8 range earthquakes in 1822, 1880, 1906, 1971 and 1985. Is it preparing for a new very large megathrust event? The 1906 earthquake of Mw 8.3 filled the central part of the gap but it has broken again on several occasions in 1971, 1973 and 1985. The main question is whether the 1906 earthquake relieved enough stresses from the 1730 rupture zone. Geodetic data shows that most of the region that broke in 1730 is currently almost fully locked from the northern end of the Maule earthquake at 34.5°S to 30°S, near the southern end of the of the Mw 8.5 Atacama earthquake of 11

  5. Where was the 1898 Mare Island Earthquake? Insights from the 2014 South Napa Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hough, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 South Napa earthquake provides an opportunity to reconsider the Mare Island earthquake of 31 March 1898, which caused severe damage to buildings at a Navy yard on the island. Revising archival accounts of the 1898 earthquake, I estimate a lower intensity magnitude, 5.8, than the value in the current Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) catalog (6.4). However, I note that intensity magnitude can differ from Mw by upwards of half a unit depending on stress drop, which for a historical earthquake is unknowable. In the aftermath of the 2014 earthquake, there has been speculation that apparently severe effects on Mare Island in 1898 were due to the vulnerability of local structures. No surface rupture has ever been identified from the 1898 event, which is commonly associated with the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault system, some 10 km west of Mare Island (e.g., Parsons et al., 2003). Reconsideration of detailed archival accounts of the 1898 earthquake, together with a comparison of the intensity distributions for the two earthquakes, points to genuinely severe, likely near-field ground motions on Mare Island. The 2014 earthquake did cause significant damage to older brick buildings on Mare Island, but the level of damage does not match the severity of documented damage in 1898. The high intensity files for the two earthquakes are more over spatially shifted, with the centroid of the 2014 distribution near the town of Napa and that of the 1898 distribution near Mare Island, east of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek system. I conclude that the 1898 Mare Island earthquake was centered on or near Mare Island, possibly involving rupture of one or both strands of the Franklin fault, a low-slip-rate fault sub-parallel to the Rodgers Creek fault to the west and the West Napa fault to the east. I estimate Mw5.8 assuming an average stress drop; data are also consistent with Mw6.4 if stress drop was a factor of ≈3 lower than average for California earthquakes. I

  6. Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of

  7. Scaling A Moment-Rate Function For Small To Large Magnitude Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archuleta, Ralph; Ji, Chen

    2017-04-01

    Since the 1980's seismologists have recognized that peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) scale differently with magnitude for large and moderate earthquakes. In a recent paper (Archuleta and Ji, GRL 2016) we introduced an apparent moment-rate function (aMRF) that accurately predicts the scaling with magnitude of PGA, PGV, PWA (Wood-Anderson Displacement) and the ratio PGA/2πPGV (dominant frequency) for earthquakes 3.3 ≤ M ≤ 5.3. This apparent moment-rate function is controlled by two temporal parameters, tp and td, which are related to the time for the moment-rate function to reach its peak amplitude and the total duration of the earthquake, respectively. These two temporal parameters lead to a Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) of displacement that has two corners in between which the spectral amplitudes decay as 1/f, f denotes frequency. At higher or lower frequencies, the FAS of the aMRF looks like a single-corner Aki-Brune omega squared spectrum. However, in the presence of attenuation the higher corner is almost certainly masked. Attempting to correct the spectrum to an Aki-Brune omega-squared spectrum will produce an "apparent" corner frequency that falls between the double corner frequency of the aMRF. We reason that the two corners of the aMRF are the reason that seismologists deduce a stress drop (e.g., Allmann and Shearer, JGR 2009) that is generally much smaller than the stress parameter used to produce ground motions from stochastic simulations (e.g., Boore, 2003 Pageoph.). The presence of two corners for the smaller magnitude earthquakes leads to several questions. Can deconvolution be successfully used to determine scaling from small to large earthquakes? Equivalently will large earthquakes have a double corner? If large earthquakes are the sum of many smaller magnitude earthquakes, what should the displacement FAS look like for a large magnitude earthquake? Can a combination of such a double-corner spectrum and random

  8. The USGS Earthquake Notification Service (ENS): Customizable notifications of earthquakes around the globe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, Lisa A.; Wald, David J.; Schwarz, Stan; Presgrave, Bruce; Earle, Paul S.; Martinez, Eric; Oppenheimer, David

    2008-01-01

    At the beginning of 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) introduced a new automated Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) to take the place of the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) "Bigquake" system and the various other individual EHP e-mail list-servers for separate regions in the United States. These included northern California, southern California, and the central and eastern United States. ENS is a "one-stop shopping" system that allows Internet users to subscribe to flexible and customizable notifications for earthquakes anywhere in the world. The customization capability allows users to define the what (magnitude threshold), the when (day and night thresholds), and the where (specific regions) for their notifications. Customization is achieved by employing a per-user based request profile, allowing the notifications to be tailored for each individual's requirements. Such earthquake-parameter-specific custom delivery was not possible with simple e-mail list-servers. Now that event and user profiles are in a structured query language (SQL) database, additional flexibility is possible. At the time of this writing, ENS had more than 114,000 subscribers, with more than 200,000 separate user profiles. On a typical day, more than 188,000 messages get sent to a variety of widely distributed users for a wide range of earthquake locations and magnitudes. The purpose of this article is to describe how ENS works, highlight the features it offers, and summarize plans for future developments.

  9. Earthquakes: hydrogeochemical precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.

  10. Ground water and earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ts' ai, T H

    1977-11-01

    Chinese folk wisdom has long seen a relationship between ground water and earthquakes. Before an earthquake there is often an unusual change in the ground water level and volume of flow. Changes in the amount of particulate matter in ground water as well as changes in color, bubbling, gas emission, and noises and geysers are also often observed before earthquakes. Analysis of these features can help predict earthquakes. Other factors unrelated to earthquakes can cause some of these changes, too. As a first step it is necessary to find sites which are sensitive to changes in ground stress to be used as sensor points for predicting earthquakes. The necessary features are described. Recording of seismic waves of earthquake aftershocks is also an important part of earthquake predictions.

  11. Retrospective stress-forecasting of earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yuan; Crampin, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    Observations of changes in azimuthally varying shear-wave splitting (SWS) above swarms of small earthquakes monitor stress-induced changes to the stress-aligned vertical microcracks pervading the upper crust, lower crust, and uppermost ~400km of the mantle. (The microcracks are intergranular films of hydrolysed melt in the mantle.) Earthquakes release stress, and an appropriate amount of stress for the relevant magnitude must accumulate before each event. Iceland is on an extension of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where two transform zones, uniquely run onshore. These onshore transform zones provide semi-continuous swarms of small earthquakes, which are the only place worldwide where SWS can be routinely monitored. Elsewhere SWS must be monitored above temporally-active occasional swarms of small earthquakes, or in infrequent SKS and other teleseismic reflections from the mantle. Observations of changes in SWS time-delays are attributed to stress-induced changes in crack aspect-ratios allowing stress-accumulation and stress-relaxation to be identified. Monitoring SWS in SW Iceland in 1988, stress-accumulation before an impending earthquake was recognised and emails were exchanged between the University of Edinburgh (EU) and the Iceland Meteorological Office (IMO). On 10th November 1988, EU emailed IMO that a M5 earthquake could occur soon on a seismically-active fault plane where seismicity was still continuing following a M5.1 earthquake six-months earlier. Three-days later, IMO emailed EU that a M5 earthquake had just occurred on the specified fault-plane. We suggest this is a successful earthquake stress-forecast, where we refer to the procedure as stress-forecasting earthquakes as opposed to predicting or forecasting to emphasise the different formalism. Lack of funds has prevented us monitoring SWS on Iceland seismograms, however, we have identified similar characteristic behaviour of SWS time-delays above swarms of small earthquakes which have enabled us to

  12. Impact of magnitude uncertainties on seismic catalogue properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leptokaropoulos, K. M.; Adamaki, A. K.; Roberts, R. G.; Gkarlaouni, C. G.; Paradisopoulou, P. M.

    2018-05-01

    Catalogue-based studies are of central importance in seismological research, to investigate the temporal, spatial and size distribution of earthquakes in specified study areas. Methods for estimating the fundamental catalogue parameters like the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b-value and the completeness magnitude (Mc) are well established and routinely applied. However, the magnitudes reported in seismicity catalogues contain measurement uncertainties which may significantly distort the estimation of the derived parameters. In this study, we use numerical simulations of synthetic data sets to assess the reliability of different methods for determining b-value and Mc, assuming the G-R law validity. After contaminating the synthetic catalogues with Gaussian noise (with selected standard deviations), the analysis is performed for numerous data sets of different sample size (N). The noise introduced to the data generally leads to a systematic overestimation of magnitudes close to and above Mc. This fact causes an increase of the average number of events above Mc, which in turn leads to an apparent decrease of the b-value. This may result to a significant overestimation of seismicity rate even well above the actual completeness level. The b-value can in general be reliably estimated even for relatively small data sets (N < 1000) when only magnitudes higher than the actual completeness level are used. Nevertheless, a correction of the total number of events belonging in each magnitude class (i.e. 0.1 unit) should be considered, to deal with the magnitude uncertainty effect. Because magnitude uncertainties (here with the form of Gaussian noise) are inevitable in all instrumental catalogues, this finding is fundamental for seismicity rate and seismic hazard assessment analyses. Also important is that for some data analyses significant bias cannot necessarily be avoided by choosing a high Mc value for analysis. In such cases, there may be a risk of severe miscalculation of

  13. Multivariate statistical analysis to investigate the subduction zone parameters favoring the occurrence of giant megathrust earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brizzi, S.; Sandri, L.; Funiciello, F.; Corbi, F.; Piromallo, C.; Heuret, A.

    2018-03-01

    The observed maximum magnitude of subduction megathrust earthquakes is highly variable worldwide. One key question is which conditions, if any, favor the occurrence of giant earthquakes (Mw ≥ 8.5). Here we carry out a multivariate statistical study in order to investigate the factors affecting the maximum magnitude of subduction megathrust earthquakes. We find that the trench-parallel extent of subduction zones and the thickness of trench sediments provide the largest discriminating capability between subduction zones that have experienced giant earthquakes and those having significantly lower maximum magnitude. Monte Carlo simulations show that the observed spatial distribution of giant earthquakes cannot be explained by pure chance to a statistically significant level. We suggest that the combination of a long subduction zone with thick trench sediments likely promotes a great lateral rupture propagation, characteristic of almost all giant earthquakes.

  14. Natural time analysis of the Centennial Earthquake Catalog

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarlis, N. V.; Christopoulos, S.-R. G.

    2012-01-01

    By using the most recent version (1900–2007) of the Centennial Earthquake Catalog, we examine the properties of the global seismicity. Natural time analysis reveals that the fluctuations of the order parameter κ 1 of seismicity exhibit for at least three orders of magnitude a characteristic feature similar to that of the order parameter for other equilibrium or non-equilibrium critical systems—including self-organized critical systems. Moreover, we find non-trivial magnitude correlations for earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 7.

  15. Evaluating real-time air-quality data as earthquake indicator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Huang, Yi-Tang; Huang, Jr-Chung; Tu, Jien-Yi; Engling, Guenter; Lin, Chuan-Yao; Lin, Fei-Jan; Huang, Chao-Hao

    2010-01-01

    A catastrophic earthquake, namely the 921-earthquake, occurred with a magnitude of M L = 7.3 in Taiwan on September 21, 1999, causing severe disaster. The evaluation of real-time air-quality data, obtained by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (EPA), revealed a staggering increase in ambient SO 2 concentrations by more than one order of magnitude across the island several hours prior to the earthquake, particularly at background stations. The abrupt increase in SO 2 concentrations likely resulted from seismic-triggered degassing instead of air pollution. An additional case of a large earthquake (M L = 6.8), occurring on March 31, 2002, was examined to confirm our observations of significantly enhanced SO 2 concentrations in ambient air prior to large earthquakes. The coincidence between large earthquakes and increases in trace gases during the pre-quake period (several hours) indicates the potential of employing air-quality monitoring data to forecast catastrophic earthquakes.

  16. The relationship between local and moment magnitude in Greece during the period 2008-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konstantinou, K. I.; Melis, N. S.

    2018-03-01

    We perform a systematic comparison between local and moment magnitudes in Greece for the period 2008-2016 when both magnitudes have been determined using waveform data recorded by the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network (HUSN). Differences between the two magnitudes scales on average do not exceed ± 0.2 units as has been found in other regions worldwide. A recalculation of local magnitude using magnitude residuals for each HUSN station shows that station site conditions have very little influence on the difference between local and moment magnitude. It is therefore more likely that wave propagation effects and in rare cases, anomalous source properties are dominant factors in shaping this difference. General orthogonal regression is applied to the whole dataset and also to subsets covering different areas of Greece or different time period to calibrate the one magnitude scale against the other using a linear model. The resulting relationships differ very little, suggesting that there is no significant regional/temporal variation between local and moment magnitudes. While these relationships predict that local magnitude is very close to moment magnitude if both are determined using HUSN data, the comparison with Global CMT moment magnitude (with M w in the range 4.5-6.2) shows that it is larger than local magnitude by 0.18 units. These results are particularly important for converting local magnitudes to equivalent moment magnitudes and thus homogenize the Greek earthquake catalog.

  17. The language of magnitude comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Matthews, William John; Dylman, Alexandra S

    2014-01-01

    When two objects differ in magnitude, their relation can be described with a "smaller" comparative (e.g., "less", "shorter", "lower") or a "larger" comparative (e.g., "more", "taller", "higher"). We show that, across multiple dimensions and tasks, English speakers preferentially use the latter. In sentence-completion tasks, this higher use of larger comparatives (HULC) effect is more pronounced when the larger item is presented on the left (for simultaneous presentation) or second (for sequen...

  18. Radiation doses - maps and magnitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    A NRPB leaflet in the 'At-a-Glance' Series presents information on the numerous sources and magnitude of exposure of man to radiation. These include the medical use of radiation, radioactive discharges to the environment, cosmic rays, gamma rays from the ground and buildings, radon gas and food and drink. A Pie chart represents the percentage contribution of each of those sources. Finally, the terms becquerel, microsievert and millisievert are explained. (U.K.)

  19. Ionospheric earthquake precursors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulachenko, A.L.; Oraevskij, V.N.; Pokhotelov, O.A.; Sorokin, V.N.; Strakhov, V.N.; Chmyrev, V.M.

    1996-01-01

    Results of experimental study on ionospheric earthquake precursors, program development on processes in the earthquake focus and physical mechanisms of formation of various type precursors are considered. Composition of experimental cosmic system for earthquake precursors monitoring is determined. 36 refs., 5 figs

  20. Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, Canan Lacin

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

  1. The Great Tangshan Earthquake of 1976

    OpenAIRE

    Huixian, Liu; Housner, George W.; Lili, Xie; Duxin, He

    2002-01-01

    At 4:00 a.m. on July 28, 1976 the city of Tangshan, China ceased to exist. A magnitude 7.8 earthquake was generated by a fault that passed through the city and caused 85% of the buildings to collapse or to be so seriously damaged as to be unusable, and the death toll was enormous. The earthquake caused the failures of the electric power system, the water supply system, the sewer system, the telephone and telegraph systems, and radio communications; and the large coal mines and the industries ...

  2. Smartphone-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, B. A.; Baez, J. C.; Ericksen, T.; Barrientos, S. E.; Minson, S. E.; Duncan, C.; Guillemot, C.; Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Cochran, E. S.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Glennie, C. L.; Dueitt, J.; Parra, H.

    2016-12-01

    Many locations around the world face high seismic hazard, but do not have the resources required to establish traditional earthquake and tsunami warning systems (E/TEW) that utilize scientific grade seismological sensors. MEMs accelerometers and GPS chips embedded in, or added inexpensively to, smartphones are sensitive enough to provide robust E/TEW if they are deployed in sufficient numbers. We report on a pilot project in Chile, one of the most productive earthquake regions world-wide. There, magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes occurring roughly every 1.5 years and larger tsunamigenic events pose significant local and trans-Pacific hazard. The smartphone-based network described here is being deployed in parallel to the build-out of a scientific-grade network for E/TEW. Our sensor package comprises a smartphone with internal MEMS and an external GPS chipset that provides satellite-based augmented positioning and phase-smoothing. Each station is independent of local infrastructure, they are solar-powered and rely on cellular SIM cards for communications. An Android app performs initial onboard processing and transmits both accelerometer and GPS data to a server employing the FinDer-BEFORES algorithm to detect earthquakes, producing an acceleration-based line source model for smaller magnitude earthquakes or a joint seismic-geodetic finite-fault distributed slip model for sufficiently large magnitude earthquakes. Either source model provides accurate ground shaking forecasts, while distributed slip models for larger offshore earthquakes can be used to infer seafloor deformation for local tsunami warning. The network will comprise 50 stations by Sept. 2016 and 100 stations by Dec. 2016. Since Nov. 2015, batch processing has detected, located, and estimated the magnitude for Mw>5 earthquakes. Operational since June, 2016, we have successfully detected two earthquakes > M5 (M5.5, M5.1) that occurred within 100km of our network while producing zero false alarms.

  3. Extending the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Instrumental Catalogue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Giacomo, Domenico; Engdhal, Bob; Storchak, Dmitry; Villaseñor, Antonio; Harris, James

    2015-04-01

    After a 27-month project funded by the GEM Foundation (www.globalquakemodel.org), in January 2013 we released the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900 2009) (www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/index.php) as a special product to use for seismic hazard studies. The new catalogue was necessary as improved seismic hazard studies necessitate that earthquake catalogues are homogeneous (to the largest extent possible) over time in their fundamental parameters, such as location and magnitude. Due to time and resource limitation, the ISC-GEM catalogue (1900-2009) included earthquakes selected according to the following time-variable cut-off magnitudes: Ms=7.5 for earthquakes occurring before 1918; Ms=6.25 between 1918 and 1963; and Ms=5.5 from 1964 onwards. Because of the importance of having a reliable seismic input for seismic hazard studies, funding from GEM and two commercial companies in the US and UK allowed us to start working on the extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue both for earthquakes that occurred beyond 2009 and for earthquakes listed in the International Seismological Summary (ISS) which fell below the cut-off magnitude of 6.25. This extension is part of a four-year program that aims at including in the ISC-GEM catalogue large global earthquakes that occurred before the beginning of the ISC Bulletin in 1964. In this contribution we present the updated ISC GEM catalogue, which will include over 1000 more earthquakes that occurred in 2010 2011 and several hundreds more between 1950 and 1959. The catalogue extension between 1935 and 1949 is currently underway. The extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue will also be helpful for regional cross border seismic hazard studies as the ISC-GEM catalogue should be used as basis for cross-checking the consistency in location and magnitude of those earthquakes listed both in the ISC GEM global catalogue and regional catalogues.

  4. Theatre as Therapy, Therapy as Theatre Transforming the Memories and Trauma of the 21 September 1999 Earthquake in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ivy I-Chu

    2005-01-01

    On 21 September 1999, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake in Taiwan destroyed more than 100,000 houses, causing 2,294 deaths and 8,737 injuries. In the aftermath of the earthquake, a great number of social workers and cultural workers were thrust into Nantou County and Taichung County of central Taiwan, the epicentre of the earthquake, to assist the…

  5. Prospective testing of Coulomb short-term earthquake forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Schorlemmer, D.; Zechar, J. D.; Wang, Q.; Wong, K.

    2009-12-01

    Earthquake induced Coulomb stresses, whether static or dynamic, suddenly change the probability of future earthquakes. Models to estimate stress and the resulting seismicity changes could help to illuminate earthquake physics and guide appropriate precautionary response. But do these models have improved forecasting power compared to empirical statistical models? The best answer lies in prospective testing in which a fully specified model, with no subsequent parameter adjustments, is evaluated against future earthquakes. The Center of Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) facilitates such prospective testing of earthquake forecasts, including several short term forecasts. Formulating Coulomb stress models for formal testing involves several practical problems, mostly shared with other short-term models. First, earthquake probabilities must be calculated after each “perpetrator” earthquake but before the triggered earthquakes, or “victims”. The time interval between a perpetrator and its victims may be very short, as characterized by the Omori law for aftershocks. CSEP evaluates short term models daily, and allows daily updates of the models. However, lots can happen in a day. An alternative is to test and update models on the occurrence of each earthquake over a certain magnitude. To make such updates rapidly enough and to qualify as prospective, earthquake focal mechanisms, slip distributions, stress patterns, and earthquake probabilities would have to be made by computer without human intervention. This scheme would be more appropriate for evaluating scientific ideas, but it may be less useful for practical applications than daily updates. Second, triggered earthquakes are imperfectly recorded following larger events because their seismic waves are buried in the coda of the earlier event. To solve this problem, testing methods need to allow for “censoring” of early aftershock data, and a quantitative model for detection threshold as a function of

  6. The Lushan earthquake and the giant panda: impacts and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zejun; Yuan, Shibin; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Mingchun

    2014-06-01

    Earthquakes not only result in a great loss of human life and property, but also have profound effects on the Earth's biodiversity. The Lushan earthquake occurred on 20 Apr 2013, with a magnitude of 7.0 and an intensity of 9.0 degrees. A distance of 17.0 km from its epicenter to the nearest distribution site of giant pandas recorded in the Third National Survey was determined. Making use of research on the Wenchuan earthquake (with a magnitude of 8.0), which occurred approximately 5 years ago, we briefly analyze the impacts of the Lushan earthquake on giant pandas and their habitat. An earthquake may interrupt ongoing behaviors of giant pandas and may also cause injury or death. In addition, an earthquake can damage conservation facilities for pandas, and result in further habitat fragmentation and degradation. However, from a historical point of view, the impacts of human activities on giant pandas and their habitat may, in fact, far outweigh those of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Measures taken to promote habitat restoration and conservation network reconstruction in earthquake-affected areas should be based on requirements of giant pandas, not those of humans. © 2013 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  7. Real-time earthquake source imaging: An offline test for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yong; Wang, Rongjiang; Zschau, Jochen; Parolai, Stefano; Dahm, Torsten

    2014-05-01

    In recent decades, great efforts have been expended in real-time seismology aiming at earthquake and tsunami early warning. One of the most important issues is the real-time assessment of earthquake rupture processes using near-field seismogeodetic networks. Currently, earthquake early warning systems are mostly based on the rapid estimate of P-wave magnitude, which contains generally large uncertainties and the known saturation problem. In the case of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake, JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) released the first warning of the event with M7.2 after 25 s. The following updates of the magnitude even decreased to M6.3-6.6. Finally, the magnitude estimate stabilized at M8.1 after about two minutes. This led consequently to the underestimated tsunami heights. By using the newly developed Iterative Deconvolution and Stacking (IDS) method for automatic source imaging, we demonstrate an offline test for the real-time analysis of the strong-motion and GPS seismograms of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The results show that we had been theoretically able to image the complex rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake automatically soon after or even during the rupture process. In general, what had happened on the fault could be robustly imaged with a time delay of about 30 s by using either the strong-motion (KiK-net) or the GPS (GEONET) real-time data. This implies that the new real-time source imaging technique is helpful to reduce false and missing warnings, and therefore should play an important role in future tsunami early warning and earthquake rapid response systems.

  8. An Application of the Coherent Noise Model for the Prediction of Aftershock Magnitude Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stavros-Richard G. Christopoulos

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the study of the coherent noise model has led to a simple (binary prediction algorithm for the forthcoming earthquake magnitude in aftershock sequences. This algorithm is based on the concept of natural time and exploits the complexity exhibited by the coherent noise model. Here, using the relocated catalogue from Southern California Seismic Network for 1981 to June 2011, we evaluate the application of this algorithm for the aftershocks of strong earthquakes of magnitude M≥6. The study is also extended by using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Project catalogue to the case of the six strongest earthquakes in the Earth during the last almost forty years. The predictor time series exhibits the ubiquitous 1/f noise behavior.

  9. Determining on-fault magnitude distributions for a connected, multi-fault system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.

    2017-12-01

    A new method is developed to determine on-fault magnitude distributions within a complex and connected multi-fault system. A binary integer programming (BIP) method is used to distribute earthquakes from a 10 kyr synthetic regional catalog, with a minimum magnitude threshold of 6.0 and Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) parameters (a- and b-values) estimated from historical data. Each earthquake in the synthetic catalog can occur on any fault and at any location. In the multi-fault system, earthquake ruptures are allowed to branch or jump from one fault to another. The objective is to minimize the slip-rate misfit relative to target slip rates for each of the faults in the system. Maximum and minimum slip-rate estimates around the target slip rate are used as explicit constraints. An implicit constraint is that an earthquake can only be located on a fault (or series of connected faults) if it is long enough to contain that earthquake. The method is demonstrated in the San Francisco Bay area, using UCERF3 faults and slip-rates. We also invoke the same assumptions regarding background seismicity, coupling, and fault connectivity as in UCERF3. Using the preferred regional G-R a-value, which may be suppressed by the 1906 earthquake, the BIP problem is deemed infeasible when faults are not connected. Using connected faults, however, a solution is found in which there is a surprising diversity of magnitude distributions among faults. In particular, the optimal magnitude distribution for earthquakes that participate along the Peninsula section of the San Andreas fault indicates a deficit of magnitudes in the M6.0- 7.0 range. For the Rodgers Creek-Hayward fault combination, there is a deficit in the M6.0- 6.6 range. Rather than solving this as an optimization problem, we can set the objective function to zero and solve this as a constraint problem. Among the solutions to the constraint problem is one that admits many more earthquakes in the deficit magnitude ranges for both faults

  10. Large earthquake rates from geologic, geodetic, and seismological perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquake rate and recurrence information comes primarily from geology, geodesy, and seismology. Geology gives the longest temporal perspective, but it reveals only surface deformation, relatable to earthquakes only with many assumptions. Geodesy is also limited to surface observations, but it detects evidence of the processes leading to earthquakes, again subject to important assumptions. Seismology reveals actual earthquakes, but its history is too short to capture important properties of very large ones. Unfortunately, the ranges of these observation types barely overlap, so that integrating them into a consistent picture adequate to infer future prospects requires a great deal of trust. Perhaps the most important boundary is the temporal one at the beginning of the instrumental seismic era, about a century ago. We have virtually no seismological or geodetic information on large earthquakes before then, and little geological information after. Virtually all-modern forecasts of large earthquakes assume some form of equivalence between tectonic- and seismic moment rates as functions of location, time, and magnitude threshold. That assumption links geology, geodesy, and seismology, but it invokes a host of other assumptions and incurs very significant uncertainties. Questions include temporal behavior of seismic and tectonic moment rates; shape of the earthquake magnitude distribution; upper magnitude limit; scaling between rupture length, width, and displacement; depth dependence of stress coupling; value of crustal rigidity; and relation between faults at depth and their surface fault traces, to name just a few. In this report I'll estimate the quantitative implications for estimating large earthquake rate. Global studies like the GEAR1 project suggest that surface deformation from geology and geodesy best show the geography of very large, rare earthquakes in the long term, while seismological observations of small earthquakes best forecasts moderate earthquakes

  11. Prediction of strong earthquake motions on rock surface using evolutionary process models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kameda, H.; Sugito, M.

    1984-01-01

    Stochastic process models are developed for prediction of strong earthquake motions for engineering design purposes. Earthquake motions with nonstationary frequency content are modeled by using the concept of evolutionary processes. Discussion is focused on the earthquake motions on bed rocks which are important for construction of nuclear power plants in seismic regions. On this basis, two earthquake motion prediction models are developed, one (EMP-IB Model) for prediction with given magnitude and epicentral distance, and the other (EMP-IIB Model) to account for the successive fault ruptures and the site location relative to the fault of great earthquakes. (Author) [pt

  12. Foreshock occurrence before large earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reasenberg, P.A.

    1999-01-01

    Rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured in two worldwide catalogs over ???20-year intervals. The overall rates observed are similar to ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California. The aftershock model was extended to the case of moderate foreshocks preceding large mainshocks. Overall, the observed worldwide foreshock rates exceed the extended California generic model by a factor of ???2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events, a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, had a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, had a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have found low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggests the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich. If this is so, then the California generic model may significantly underestimate the conditional probability for a very large (M ??? 8) earthquake following a potential (M ??? 7) foreshock in Cascadia. The magnitude differences among the identified foreshock-mainshock pairs in the Harvard catalog are consistent with a uniform

  13. Earthquake stand-by instruction device for nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakagawa, Masaki; Ijima, Tadashi

    1998-01-01

    The magnitude of earthquakes is forecast at a high accuracy by disposing seismic detectors to a plurality of points distant from an object plant. The accuracy of the judgement for the magnitude of earthquakes can be improved by processing seismic movements by using seismic movements observed along with elapse of time. The measured seismic waveforms are always stored even during the processing time. With such procedures, when one processing is completed, processing can be conducted successively by using stored data, by which processing can be conducted by using all the data from the occurrence of the earthquakes. Then, the seismic movements can be estimated from an early stage of the occurrence of the earthquakes, and since the seismic movement can be judged based on a great amount of data with lapse of time, an appropriate stand-by instruction can be provided. (N.H.)

  14. Possible association between some geomagnetic anomalies and Vrancea (Romania) significant earthquakes occurred in the year 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Enescu, D.

    2006-01-01

    The association between geoelectromagnetic anomalies and Vrancea earthquakes of moment magnitudes 3.7 ≤ M W ≤ 5 was first proved by Enescu et al. in some earlier papers. This finding was extended by Enescu to a broader magnitude range 3.7 ≤ M W ≤ 6.3. That study proved that observable precursory anomalies in the geomagnetic impedance have preceded all Vrancea earthquakes of moment magnitudes M W ≥ 4.0 occurring in 2004 year. A similar study is made in the present paper for data recorded in 2005 year. This study confirms the main result obtained in the earlier papers, namely that the great majority of Vrancea earthquakes of magnitudes higher than 4 are associated with precursory anomalies in the geomagnetic impedance. It also seems that neither the precursor time or the amplitude of the precursory magnetic anomaly can be linked reliably with the magnitude of the anticipated earthquake. (author)

  15. Earthquake-induced water-level fluctuations at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, June 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Brien, G.M.

    1993-01-01

    This report presents earthquake-induced water-level and fluid-pressure data for wells in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, during June 1992. Three earthquakes occurred which caused significant water-level and fluid-pressure responses in wells. Wells USW H-5 and USW H-6 are continuously monitored to detect short-term responses caused by earthquakes. Two wells, monitored hourly, had significant, longer-term responses in water level following the earthquakes. On June 28, 1992, a 7.5-magnitude earthquake occurred near Landers, California causing an estimated maximum water-level change of 90 centimeters in well USW H-5. Three hours later a 6.6-magnitude earthquake occurred near Big Bear Lake, California; the maximum water-level fluctuation was 20 centimeters in well USW H-5. A 5.6-magnitude earthquake occurred at Little Skull Mountain, Nevada, on June 29, approximately 23 kilometers from Yucca Mountain. The maximum estimated short-term water-level fluctuation from the Little Skull Mountain earthquake was 40 centimeters in well USW H-5. The water level in well UE-25p number-sign 1, monitored hourly, decreased approximately 50 centimeters over 3 days following the Little Skull Mountain earthquake. The water level in UE-25p number-sign 1 returned to pre-earthquake levels in approximately 6 months. The water level in the lower interval of well USW H-3 increased 28 centimeters following the Little Skull Mountain earthquake. The Landers and Little Skull Mountain earthquakes caused responses in 17 intervals of 14 hourly monitored wells, however, most responses were small and of short duration. For several days following the major earthquakes, many smaller magnitude aftershocks occurred causing measurable responses in the continuously monitored wells

  16. Earthquake correlations and networks: A comparative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna Mohan, T. R.; Revathi, P. G.

    2011-04-01

    We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to extract causally connected earthquake pairs. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski [M. Baiesi and M. Paczuski, Phys. Rev. E EULEEJ1539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.69.06610669, 066106 (2004)]. A network of earthquakes is then constructed from the time-ordered catalog and with links between the more correlated ones. A list of recurrences to each of the earthquakes is identified employing correlation thresholds to demarcate the most meaningful ones in each cluster. Data pertaining to three different seismic regions (viz., California, Japan, and the Himalayas) are comparatively analyzed using such a network model. The distribution of recurrence lengths and recurrence times are two of the key features analyzed to draw conclusions about the universal aspects of such a network model. We find that the unimodal feature of recurrence length distribution, which helps to associate typical rupture lengths with different magnitude earthquakes, is robust across the different seismic regions. The out-degree of the networks shows a hub structure rooted on the large magnitude earthquakes. In-degree distribution is seen to be dependent on the density of events in the neighborhood. Power laws, with two regimes having different exponents, are obtained with recurrence time distribution. The first regime confirms the Omori law for aftershocks while the second regime, with a faster falloff for the larger recurrence times, establishes that pure spatial recurrences also follow a power-law distribution. The crossover to the second power-law regime can be taken to be signaling the end of the aftershock regime in an objective fashion.

  17. Earthquake correlations and networks: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krishna Mohan, T. R.; Revathi, P. G.

    2011-01-01

    We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to extract causally connected earthquake pairs. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski [M. Baiesi and M. Paczuski, Phys. Rev. E 69, 066106 (2004)]. A network of earthquakes is then constructed from the time-ordered catalog and with links between the more correlated ones. A list of recurrences to each of the earthquakes is identified employing correlation thresholds to demarcate the most meaningful ones in each cluster. Data pertaining to three different seismic regions (viz., California, Japan, and the Himalayas) are comparatively analyzed using such a network model. The distribution of recurrence lengths and recurrence times are two of the key features analyzed to draw conclusions about the universal aspects of such a network model. We find that the unimodal feature of recurrence length distribution, which helps to associate typical rupture lengths with different magnitude earthquakes, is robust across the different seismic regions. The out-degree of the networks shows a hub structure rooted on the large magnitude earthquakes. In-degree distribution is seen to be dependent on the density of events in the neighborhood. Power laws, with two regimes having different exponents, are obtained with recurrence time distribution. The first regime confirms the Omori law for aftershocks while the second regime, with a faster falloff for the larger recurrence times, establishes that pure spatial recurrences also follow a power-law distribution. The crossover to the second power-law regime can be taken to be signaling the end of the aftershock regime in an objective fashion.

  18. Is earthquake rate in south Iceland modified by seasonal loading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonsson, S.; Aoki, Y.; Drouin, V.

    2017-12-01

    Several temporarily varying processes have the potential of modifying the rate of earthquakes in the south Iceland seismic zone, one of the two most active seismic zones in Iceland. These include solid earth tides, seasonal meteorological effects and influence from passing weather systems, and variations in snow and glacier loads. In this study we investigate the influence these processes may have on crustal stresses and stressing rates in the seismic zone and assess whether they appear to be influencing the earthquake rate. While historical earthquakes in the south Iceland have preferentially occurred in early summer, this tendency is less clear for small earthquakes. The local earthquake catalogue (going back to 1991, magnitude of completeness M6+ earthquakes, which occurred in June 2000 and May 2008. Standard Reasenberg earthquake declustering or more involved model independent stochastic declustering algorithms are not capable of fully eliminating the aftershocks from the catalogue. We therefore inspected the catalogue for the time period before 2000 and it shows limited seasonal tendency in earthquake occurrence. Our preliminary results show no clear correlation between earthquake rates and short-term stressing variations induced from solid earth tides or passing storms. Seasonal meteorological effects also appear to be too small to influence the earthquake activity. Snow and glacier load variations induce significant vertical motions in the area with peak loading occurring in Spring (April-May) and maximum unloading in Fall (Sept.-Oct.). Early summer occurrence of historical earthquakes therefore correlates with early unloading rather than with the peak unloading or unloading rate, which appears to indicate limited influence of this seasonal process on the earthquake activity.

  19. Magnitude and Rupture Area Scaling Relationships of Seismicity at The Northwest Geysers EGS Demonstration Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dreger, D. S.; Boyd, O. S.; Taira, T.; Gritto, R.

    2017-12-01

    Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) resource development requires knowledge of subsurface physical parameters to quantify the evolution of fracture networks. Spatio-temporal source properties, including source dimension, rupture area, slip, rupture speed, and slip velocity of induced seismicity are of interest at The Geysers geothermal field, northern California to map the coseismic facture density of the EGS swarm. In this investigation we extend our previous finite-source analysis of selected M>4 earthquakes to examine source properties of smaller magnitude seismicity located in the Northwest Geysers Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) demonstration project. Moment rate time histories of the source are found using empirical Green's function (eGf) deconvolution using the method of Mori (1993) as implemented by Dreger et al. (2007). The moment rate functions (MRFs) from data recorded using the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) short-period geophone network are inverted for finite-source parameters including the spatial distribution of fault slip, rupture velocity, and the orientation of the causative fault plane. The results show complexity in the MRF for the studied earthquakes. Thus far the estimated rupture area and the magnitude-area trend of the smaller magnitude Geysers seismicity is found to agree with the empirical relationships of Wells and Coppersmith (1994) and Leonard (2010), which were developed for much larger M>5.5 earthquakes worldwide indicating self-similar behavior extending to M2 earthquakes. We will present finite-source inversion results of the micro-earthquakes, attempting to extend the analysis to sub Mw, and demonstrate their magnitude-area scaling. The extension of the scaling laws will then enable the mapping of coseismic fracture density of the EGS swarm in the Northwest Geysers based on catalog moment magnitude estimates.

  20. New fault picture points toward San Francisco Bay area earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, R. A.

    1989-01-01

    Recent earthquakes and a new way of looking at faults suggest that damaging earthquakes are closing in on the San Francisco area. Earthquakes Awareness Week 1989 in northern California started off with a bang on Monday, 3 April, when a magnitude 4.8 earthquake struck 15 kilometers northeast of San Jose. The relatively small shock-its primary damage was the shattering of an air-control tower window-got the immediate attention of three U.S Geological Survey seismologists in Menlo Park near San Francisco. David Oppenheimer, William Bakun, and Allan Lindh had forecast a nearby earthquake in a just completed report, and this, they thought, might be it. 

  1. Challenges to communicate risks of human-caused earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, C. D.

    2014-12-01

    The awareness of natural hazards has been up-trending in recent years. In particular, this is true for earthquakes, which increase in frequency and magnitude in regions that normally do not experience seismic activity. In fact, one of the major concerns for many communities and businesses is that humans today seem to cause earthquakes due to large-scale shale gas production, dewatering and flooding of mines and deep geothermal power production. Accordingly, without opposing any of these technologies it should be a priority of earth scientists who are researching natural hazards to communicate earthquake risks. This presentation discusses the challenges that earth scientists are facing to properly communicate earthquake risks, in light of the fact that human-caused earthquakes are an environmental change affecting only some communities and businesses. Communication channels may range from research papers, books and class room lectures to outreach events and programs, popular media events or even social media networks.

  2. Solar Variability Magnitudes and Timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Greg

    2015-08-01

    The Sun’s net radiative output varies on timescales of minutes to many millennia. The former are directly observed as part of the on-going 37-year long total solar irradiance climate data record, while the latter are inferred from solar proxy and stellar evolution models. Since the Sun provides nearly all the energy driving the Earth’s climate system, changes in the sunlight reaching our planet can have - and have had - significant impacts on life and civilizations.Total solar irradiance has been measured from space since 1978 by a series of overlapping instruments. These have shown changes in the spatially- and spectrally-integrated radiant energy at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere from timescales as short as minutes to as long as a solar cycle. The Sun’s ~0.01% variations over a few minutes are caused by the superposition of convection and oscillations, and even occasionally by a large flare. Over days to weeks, changing surface activity affects solar brightness at the ~0.1% level. The 11-year solar cycle has comparable irradiance variations with peaks near solar maxima.Secular variations are harder to discern, being limited by instrument stability and the relatively short duration of the space-borne record. Proxy models of the Sun based on cosmogenic isotope records and inferred from Earth climate signatures indicate solar brightness changes over decades to millennia, although the magnitude of these variations depends on many assumptions. Stellar evolution affects yet longer timescales and is responsible for the greatest solar variabilities.In this talk I will summarize the Sun’s variability magnitudes over different temporal ranges, showing examples relevant for climate studies as well as detections of exo-solar planets transiting Sun-like stars.

  3. Dynamic strains for earthquake source characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbour, Andrew J.; Crowell, Brendan W

    2017-01-01

    Strainmeters measure elastodynamic deformation associated with earthquakes over a broad frequency band, with detection characteristics that complement traditional instrumentation, but they are commonly used to study slow transient deformation along active faults and at subduction zones, for example. Here, we analyze dynamic strains at Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) borehole strainmeters (BSM) associated with 146 local and regional earthquakes from 2004–2014, with magnitudes from M 4.5 to 7.2. We find that peak values in seismic strain can be predicted from a general regression against distance and magnitude, with improvements in accuracy gained by accounting for biases associated with site–station effects and source–path effects, the latter exhibiting the strongest influence on the regression coefficients. To account for the influence of these biases in a general way, we include crustal‐type classifications from the CRUST1.0 global velocity model, which demonstrates that high‐frequency strain data from the PBO BSM network carry information on crustal structure and fault mechanics: earthquakes nucleating offshore on the Blanco fracture zone, for example, generate consistently lower dynamic strains than earthquakes around the Sierra Nevada microplate and in the Salton trough. Finally, we test our dynamic strain prediction equations on the 2011 M 9 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake, specifically continuous strain records derived from triangulation of 137 high‐rate Global Navigation Satellite System Earth Observation Network stations in Japan. Moment magnitudes inferred from these data and the strain model are in agreement when Global Positioning System subnetworks are unaffected by spatial aliasing.

  4. Earthquakes and faults in southern California (1970-2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Calzia, James P.; Walter, Stephen R.

    2012-01-01

    The map depicts both active and inactive faults and earthquakes magnitude 1.5 to 7.3 in southern California (1970–2010). The bathymetry was generated from digital files from the California Department of Fish And Game, Marine Region, Coastal Bathymetry Project. Elevation data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Database. Landsat satellite image is from fourteen Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper scenes collected between 2009 and 2010. Fault data are reproduced with permission from 2006 California Geological Survey and U.S. Geological Survey data. The earthquake data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center.

  5. GPS Analyses of the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Gudmundsson, Ólafur

    2005-01-01

    The Sumatra, Indonesia, earthquake on 26 December 2004 was one of the most devastating earthquakes in history. With a magnitude of M w = 9.3 (revised based on normal-mode amplitudes by Stein and Okal, http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/seth/research/sumatra.html), it is the second largest...... earthquake recorded since 1900. It occurred about 100 km off the west coast of northern Sumatra, where the relatively dense Indo-Australian plate moves beneath the lighter Burma plate, resulting in stress accumulation. The average relative velocity of the two plates is about 6 cm/yr. On 26 December 2004...

  6. Discrimination between earthquakes and chemical explosions using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kundu, Ajit; Bhadauria, Y.S.; Roy, Falguni

    2012-05-01

    An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for discriminating between earthquakes and chemical explosions located at epicentral distances, Δ <5 deg from Gauribidanur Array (GBA) has been developed using the short period digital seismograms recorded at GBA. For training the ANN spectral amplitude ratios between P and Lg phases computed at 13 different frequencies in the frequency range of 2-8 Hz, corresponding to 20 earthquakes and 23 chemical explosions were used along with other parameters like magnitude, epicentral distance and amplitude ratios Rg/P and Rg/Lg. After training and development, the ANN has correctly identified a set of 21 test events, comprising 6 earthquakes and 15 chemical explosions. (author)

  7. The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: effects on hydrologic regimen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waller, Roger M.; Coble, R.W.; Post, Austin; McGarr, Arthur; Vorhis, Robert C.

    1966-01-01

    This is the fourth in a series of six reports that the U.S. Geological Survey published on the results of a comprehensive geologic study that began, as a reconnaissance survey, within 24 hours after the March 27, 1964, Magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake and extended, as detailed investigations, through several field seasons. The 1964 Great Alaska earthquake was the largest earthquake in the U.S. since 1700. Professional Paper 544, in 5 parts, describes the effects on hydrologic regimen.

  8. Ionospheric earthquake effects detection based on Total Electron Content (TEC) GPS Correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunardi, Bambang; Muslim, Buldan; Eka Sakya, Andi; Rohadi, Supriyanto; Sulastri; Murjaya, Jaya

    2018-03-01

    Advances in science and technology showed that ground-based GPS receiver was able to detect ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) disturbances caused by various natural phenomena such as earthquakes. One study of Tohoku (Japan) earthquake, March 11, 2011, magnitude M 9.0 showed TEC fluctuations observed from GPS observation network spread around the disaster area. This paper discussed the ionospheric earthquake effects detection using TEC GPS data. The case studies taken were Kebumen earthquake, January 25, 2014, magnitude M 6.2, Sumba earthquake, February 12, 2016, M 6.2 and Halmahera earthquake, February 17, 2016, M 6.1. TEC-GIM (Global Ionosphere Map) correlation methods for 31 days were used to monitor TEC anomaly in ionosphere. To ensure the geomagnetic disturbances due to solar activity, we also compare with Dst index in the same time window. The results showed anomalous ratio of correlation coefficient deviation to its standard deviation upon occurrences of Kebumen and Sumba earthquake, but not detected a similar anomaly for the Halmahera earthquake. It was needed a continous monitoring of TEC GPS data to detect the earthquake effects in ionosphere. This study giving hope in strengthening the earthquake effect early warning system using TEC GPS data. The method development of continuous TEC GPS observation derived from GPS observation network that already exists in Indonesia is needed to support earthquake effects early warning systems.

  9. Experimental evidence that thrust earthquake ruptures might open faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabuchian, Vahe; Rosakis, Ares J; Bhat, Harsha S; Madariaga, Raúl; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2017-05-18

    Many of Earth's great earthquakes occur on thrust faults. These earthquakes predominantly occur within subduction zones, such as the 2011 moment magnitude 9.0 eathquake in Tohoku-Oki, Japan, or along large collision zones, such as the 1999 moment magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Chi-Chi, Taiwan. Notably, these two earthquakes had a maximum slip that was very close to the surface. This contributed to the destructive tsunami that occurred during the Tohoku-Oki event and to the large amount of structural damage caused by the Chi-Chi event. The mechanism that results in such large slip near the surface is poorly understood as shallow parts of thrust faults are considered to be frictionally stable. Here we use earthquake rupture experiments to reveal the existence of a torquing mechanism of thrust fault ruptures near the free surface that causes them to unclamp and slip large distances. Complementary numerical modelling of the experiments confirms that the hanging-wall wedge undergoes pronounced rotation in one direction as the earthquake rupture approaches the free surface, and this torque is released as soon as the rupture breaks the free surface, resulting in the unclamping and violent 'flapping' of the hanging-wall wedge. Our results imply that the shallow extent of the seismogenic zone of a subducting interface is not fixed and can extend up to the trench during great earthquakes through a torquing mechanism.

  10. Earthquake safety program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freeland, G.E.

    1985-01-01

    Within three minutes on the morning of January 24, 1980, an earthquake and three aftershocks, with Richter magnitudes of 5.8, 5.1, 4.0, and 4.2, respectively, struck the Livermore Valley. Two days later, a Richter magnitude 5.4 earthquake occurred, which had its epicenter about 4 miles northwest of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Although no one at the Lab was seriously injured, these earthquakes caused considerable damage and disruption. Masonry and concrete structures cracked and broke, trailers shifted and fell off their pedestals, office ceilings and overhead lighting fell, and bookcases overturned. The Laboratory was suddenly immersed in a site-wide program of repairing earthquake-damaged facilities, and protecting our many employees and the surrounding community from future earthquakes. Over the past five years, LLNL has spent approximately $10 million on its earthquake restoration effort for repairs and upgrades. The discussion in this paper centers upon the earthquake damage that occurred, the clean-up and restoration efforts, the seismic review of LLNL facilities, our site-specific seismic design criteria, computer-floor upgrades, ceiling-system upgrades, unique building seismic upgrades, geologic and seismologic studies, and seismic instrumentation. 10 references

  11. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  12. Fractals and Forecasting in Earthquakes and Finance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2011-12-01

    It is now recognized that Benoit Mandelbrot's fractals play a critical role in describing a vast range of physical and social phenomena. Here we focus on two systems, earthquakes and finance. Since 1942, earthquakes have been characterized by the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relation, which in more recent times is often written as a moment-frequency power law. A similar relation can be shown to hold for financial markets. Moreover, a recent New York Times article, titled "A Richter Scale for the Markets" [1] summarized the emerging viewpoint that stock market crashes can be described with similar ideas as large and great earthquakes. The idea that stock market crashes can be related in any way to earthquake phenomena has its roots in Mandelbrot's 1963 work on speculative prices in commodities markets such as cotton [2]. He pointed out that Gaussian statistics did not account for the excessive number of booms and busts that characterize such markets. Here we show that both earthquakes and financial crashes can both be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model, involving the presence of a classical limit of stability, or spinodal. These metastable systems are characterized by fractal statistics near the spinodal. For earthquakes, the independent ("order") parameter is the slip deficit along a fault, whereas for the financial markets, it is financial leverage in place. For financial markets, asset values play the role of a free energy. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In the case of financial models, the probabilities are closely related to implied volatility, an important component of Black-Scholes models for stock valuations. [2] B. Mandelbrot, The variation of certain speculative prices, J. Business, 36, 294 (1963)

  13. Real-time earthquake data feasible

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Susan

    Scientists agree that early warning devices and monitoring of both Hurricane Hugo and the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption saved thousands of lives. What would it take to develop this sort of early warning and monitoring system for earthquake activity?Not all that much, claims a panel assigned to study the feasibility, costs, and technology needed to establish a real-time earthquake monitoring (RTEM) system. The panel, drafted by the National Academy of Science's Committee on Seismology, has presented its findings in Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring. The recently released report states that “present technology is entirely capable of recording and processing data so as to provide real-time information, enabling people to mitigate somewhat the earthquake disaster.” RTEM systems would consist of two parts—an early warning system that would give a few seconds warning before severe shaking, and immediate postquake information within minutes of the quake that would give actual measurements of the magnitude. At this time, however, this type of warning system has not been addressed at the national level for the United States and is not included in the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program, according to the report.

  14. Roaming earthquakes in China highlight midcontinental hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Mian; Wang, Hui

    2012-11-01

    Before dawn on 28 July 1976, a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake struck Tangshan, a Chinese industrial city only 150 kilometers from Beijing (Figure 1a). In a brief moment, the earthquake destroyed the entire city and killed more than 242,000 people [Chen et al., 1988]. More than 30 years have passed, and upon the ruins a new Tangshan city has been built. However, the memory of devastation remains fresh. For this reason, a sequence of recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region, including an M 4.8 event on 28 May and an M 4.0 event on 18 June 2012, has caused widespread concerns and heated debate in China. In the science community, the debate is whether the recent Tangshan earthquakes are the aftershocks of the 1976 earthquake despite the long gap in time since the main shock or harbingers of a new period of active seismicity in Tangshan and the rest of North China, where seismic activity seems to fluctuate between highs and lows over periods of a few decades [Ma, 1989].

  15. Encyclopedia of earthquake engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis; Patelli, Edoardo; Au, Siu-Kui

    2015-01-01

    The Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering is designed to be the authoritative and comprehensive reference covering all major aspects of the science of earthquake engineering, specifically focusing on the interaction between earthquakes and infrastructure. The encyclopedia comprises approximately 265 contributions. Since earthquake engineering deals with the interaction between earthquake disturbances and the built infrastructure, the emphasis is on basic design processes important to both non-specialists and engineers so that readers become suitably well-informed without needing to deal with the details of specialist understanding. The content of this encyclopedia provides technically inclined and informed readers about the ways in which earthquakes can affect our infrastructure and how engineers would go about designing against, mitigating and remediating these effects. The coverage ranges from buildings, foundations, underground construction, lifelines and bridges, roads, embankments and slopes. The encycl...

  16. Limitation of the Predominant-Period Estimator for Earthquake Early Warning and the Initial Rupture of Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, T.; Ide, S.

    2007-12-01

    Earthquake early warning is an important and challenging issue for the reduction of the seismic damage, especially for the mitigation of human suffering. One of the most important problems in earthquake early warning systems is how immediately we can estimate the final size of an earthquake after we observe the ground motion. It is relevant to the problem whether the initial rupture of an earthquake has some information associated with its final size. Nakamura (1988) developed the Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System (UrEDAS). It calculates the predominant period of the P wave (τp) and estimates the magnitude of an earthquake immediately after the P wave arrival from the value of τpmax, or the maximum value of τp. The similar approach has been adapted by other earthquake alarm systems (e.g., Allen and Kanamori (2003)). To investigate the characteristic of the parameter τp and the effect of the length of the time window (TW) in the τpmax calculation, we analyze the high-frequency recordings of earthquakes at very close distances in the Mponeng mine in South Africa. We find that values of τpmax have upper and lower limits. For larger earthquakes whose source durations are longer than TW, the values of τpmax have an upper limit which depends on TW. On the other hand, the values for smaller earthquakes have a lower limit which is proportional to the sampling interval. For intermediate earthquakes, the values of τpmax are close to their typical source durations. These two limits and the slope for intermediate earthquakes yield an artificial final size dependence of τpmax in a wide size range. The parameter τpmax is useful for detecting large earthquakes and broadcasting earthquake early warnings. However, its dependence on the final size of earthquakes does not suggest that the earthquake rupture is deterministic. This is because τpmax does not always have a direct relation to the physical quantities of an earthquake.

  17. Earthquake Swarm in Armutlu Peninsula, Eastern Marmara Region, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yavuz, Evrim; Çaka, Deniz; Tunç, Berna; Serkan Irmak, T.; Woith, Heiko; Cesca, Simone; Lühr, Birger-Gottfried; Barış, Şerif

    2015-04-01

    The most active fault system of Turkey is North Anatolian Fault Zone and caused two large earthquakes in 1999. These two earthquakes affected the eastern Marmara region destructively. Unbroken part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone crosses north of Armutlu Peninsula on east-west direction. This branch has been also located quite close to Istanbul known as a megacity with its high population, economic and social aspects. A new cluster of microseismic activity occurred in the direct vicinity southeastern of the Yalova Termal area. Activity started on August 2, 2014 with a series of micro events, and then on August 3, 2014 a local magnitude is 4.1 event occurred, more than 1000 in the followed until August 31, 2014. Thus we call this tentatively a swarm-like activity. Therefore, investigation of the micro-earthquake activity of the Armutlu Peninsula has become important to understand the relationship between the occurrence of micro-earthquakes and the tectonic structure of the region. For these reasons, Armutlu Network (ARNET), installed end of 2005 and equipped with currently 27 active seismic stations operating by Kocaeli University Earth and Space Sciences Research Center (ESSRC) and Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), is a very dense network tool able to record even micro-earthquakes in this region. In the 30 days period of August 02 to 31, 2014 Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) announced 120 local earthquakes ranging magnitudes between 0.7 and 4.1, but ARNET provided more than 1000 earthquakes for analyzes at the same time period. In this study, earthquakes of the swarm area and vicinity regions determined by ARNET were investigated. The focal mechanism of the August 03, 2014 22:22:42 (GMT) earthquake with local magnitude (Ml) 4.0 is obtained by the moment tensor solution. According to the solution, it discriminates a normal faulting with dextral component. The obtained focal mechanism solution is

  18. Simulating Earthquakes for Science and Society: Earthquake Visualizations Ideal for use in Science Communication and Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Groot, R.

    2008-12-01

    The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has been developing groundbreaking computer modeling capabilities for studying earthquakes. These visualizations were initially shared within the scientific community but have recently gained visibility via television news coverage in Southern California. Computers have opened up a whole new world for scientists working with large data sets, and students can benefit from the same opportunities (Libarkin & Brick, 2002). For example, The Great Southern California ShakeOut was based on a potential magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault. The visualization created for the ShakeOut was a key scientific and communication tool for the earthquake drill. This presentation will also feature SCEC Virtual Display of Objects visualization software developed by SCEC Undergraduate Studies in Earthquake Information Technology interns. According to Gordin and Pea (1995), theoretically visualization should make science accessible, provide means for authentic inquiry, and lay the groundwork to understand and critique scientific issues. This presentation will discuss how the new SCEC visualizations and other earthquake imagery achieve these results, how they fit within the context of major themes and study areas in science communication, and how the efficacy of these tools can be improved.

  19. Earthquakes and economic growth

    OpenAIRE

    Fisker, Peter Simonsen

    2012-01-01

    This study explores the economic consequences of earthquakes. In particular, it is investigated how exposure to earthquakes affects economic growth both across and within countries. The key result of the empirical analysis is that while there are no observable effects at the country level, earthquake exposure significantly decreases 5-year economic growth at the local level. Areas at lower stages of economic development suffer harder in terms of economic growth than richer areas. In addition,...

  20. Assessment of earthquake-induced tsunami hazard at a power plant site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, A.K.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the tsunami hazard due to submarine earthquakes at a power plant site on the east coast of India. The paper considers various sources of earthquakes from the tectonic information, and records of past earthquakes and tsunamis. Magnitude-frequency relationship for earthquake occurrence rate and a simplified model for tsunami run-up height as a function of earthquake magnitude and the distance between the source and site have been developed. Finally, considering equal likelihood of generation of earthquakes anywhere on each of the faults, the tsunami hazard has been evaluated and presented as a relationship between tsunami height and its mean recurrence interval (MRI). Probability of exceedence of a certain wave height in a given period of time is also presented. These studies will be helpful in making an estimate of the tsunami-induced flooding potential at the site

  1. Ionospheric anomalies detected by ionosonde and possibly related to crustal earthquakes in Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrone, Loredana; De Santis, Angelo; Abbattista, Cristoforo; Alfonsi, Lucilla; Amoruso, Leonardo; Carbone, Marianna; Cesaroni, Claudio; Cianchini, Gianfranco; De Franceschi, Giorgiana; De Santis, Anna; Di Giovambattista, Rita; Marchetti, Dedalo; Pavòn-Carrasco, Francisco J.; Piscini, Alessandro; Spogli, Luca; Santoro, Francesca

    2018-03-01

    Ionosonde data and crustal earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 6.0 observed in Greece during the 2003-2015 period were examined to check if the relationships obtained earlier between precursory ionospheric anomalies and earthquakes in Japan and central Italy are also valid for Greek earthquakes. The ionospheric anomalies are identified on the observed variations of the sporadic E-layer parameters (h'Es, foEs) and foF2 at the ionospheric station of Athens. The corresponding empirical relationships between the seismo-ionospheric disturbances and the earthquake magnitude and the epicentral distance are obtained and found to be similar to those previously published for other case studies. The large lead times found for the ionospheric anomalies occurrence may confirm a rather long earthquake preparation period. The possibility of using the relationships obtained for earthquake prediction is finally discussed.

  2. Ionospheric anomalies detected by ionosonde and possibly related to crustal earthquakes in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Perrone

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Ionosonde data and crustal earthquakes with magnitude M ≥ 6.0 observed in Greece during the 2003–2015 period were examined to check if the relationships obtained earlier between precursory ionospheric anomalies and earthquakes in Japan and central Italy are also valid for Greek earthquakes. The ionospheric anomalies are identified on the observed variations of the sporadic E-layer parameters (h′Es, foEs and foF2 at the ionospheric station of Athens. The corresponding empirical relationships between the seismo-ionospheric disturbances and the earthquake magnitude and the epicentral distance are obtained and found to be similar to those previously published for other case studies. The large lead times found for the ionospheric anomalies occurrence may confirm a rather long earthquake preparation period. The possibility of using the relationships obtained for earthquake prediction is finally discussed.

  3. Rapid earthquake characterization using MEMS accelerometers and volunteer hosts following the M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, J. F.; Cochran, E.S.; Chung, A.; Kaiser, A.; Christensen, C. M.; Allen, R.; Baker, J.W.; Fry, B.; Heaton, T.; Kilb, Debi; Kohler, M.D.; Taufer, M.

    2014-01-01

    We test the feasibility of rapidly detecting and characterizing earthquakes with the Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) that connects low‐cost microelectromechanical systems accelerometers to a network of volunteer‐owned, Internet‐connected computers. Following the 3 September 2010 M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake we installed over 180 QCN sensors in the Christchurch region to record the aftershock sequence. The sensors are monitored continuously by the host computer and send trigger reports to the central server. The central server correlates incoming triggers to detect when an earthquake has occurred. The location and magnitude are then rapidly estimated from a minimal set of received ground‐motion parameters. Full seismic time series are typically not retrieved for tens of minutes or even hours after an event. We benchmark the QCN real‐time detection performance against the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog. Under normal network operations, QCN detects and characterizes earthquakes within 9.1 s of the earthquake rupture and determines the magnitude within 1 magnitude unit of that reported in the GNS catalog for 90% of the detections.

  4. Assessment of precast beam-column using capacity demand response spectrum subject to design basis earthquake and maximum considered earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghani, Kay Dora Abd.; Tukiar, Mohd Azuan; Hamid, Nor Hayati Abdul

    2017-08-01

    Malaysia is surrounded by the tectonic feature of the Sumatera area which consists of two seismically active inter-plate boundaries, namely the Indo-Australian and the Eurasian Plates on the west and the Philippine Plates on the east. Hence, Malaysia experiences tremors from far distant earthquake occurring in Banda Aceh, Nias Island, Padang and other parts of Sumatera Indonesia. In order to predict the safety of precast buildings in Malaysia under near field ground motion the response spectrum analysis could be used for dealing with future earthquake whose specific nature is unknown. This paper aimed to develop of capacity demand response spectrum subject to Design Basis Earthquake (DBE) and Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) in order to assess the performance of precast beam column joint. From the capacity-demand response spectrum analysis, it can be concluded that the precast beam-column joints would not survive when subjected to earthquake excitation with surface-wave magnitude, Mw, of more than 5.5 Scale Richter (Type 1 spectra). This means that the beam-column joint which was designed using the current code of practice (BS8110) would be severely damaged when subjected to high earthquake excitation. The capacity-demand response spectrum analysis also shows that the precast beam-column joints in the prototype studied would be severely damaged when subjected to Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) with PGA=0.22g having a surface-wave magnitude of more than 5.5 Scale Richter, or Type 1 spectra.

  5. Memory effect in M ≥ 7 earthquakes of Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jeen-Hwa

    2014-07-01

    The M ≥ 7 earthquakes that occurred in the Taiwan region during 1906-2006 are taken to study the possibility of memory effect existing in the sequence of those large earthquakes. Those events are all mainshocks. The fluctuation analysis technique is applied to analyze two sequences in terms of earthquake magnitude and inter-event time represented in the natural time domain. For both magnitude and inter-event time, the calculations are made for three data sets, i.e., the original order data, the reverse-order data, and that of the mean values. Calculated results show that the exponents of scaling law of fluctuation versus window length are less than 0.5 for the sequences of both magnitude and inter-event time data. In addition, the phase portraits of two sequent magnitudes and two sequent inter-event times are also applied to explore if large (or small) earthquakes are followed by large (or small) events. Results lead to a negative answer. Together with all types of information in study, we make a conclusion that the earthquake sequence in study is short-term corrected and thus the short-term memory effect would be operative.

  6. Future Developments for the Earthquake Early Warning System following the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, M.; Mori, J. J.

    2011-12-01

    The 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake (Mw9.0) caused significant damage over a large area of northeastern Honshu. An earthquake early warning was issued to the public in the Tohoku region about 8 seconds after the first P-arrival, which is 31 seconds after the origin time. There was no 'blind zone', and warnings were received at all locations before S-wave arrivals, since the earthquake was fairly far offshore. Although the early warning message was properly reported in Tohoku region which was the most severely affected area, a message was not sent to the more distant Tokyo region because the intensity was underestimated. . This underestimation was because the magnitude determination in the first few seconds was relatively small (Mj8.1)., and there was no consideration of a finite fault with a long length. Another significant issue is that warnings were sometimes not properly provided for aftershocks. Immediately following the earthquake, the waveforms of some large aftershocks were contaminated by long-period surface waves from the mainshock, which made it difficult to pick P-wave arrivals. Also, correctly distinguishing and locating later aftershocks was sometimes difficult, when multiple events occurred within a short period of time. This masinhock begins with relatively small moment release for the first 10 s . Since the amplitude of the initial waveforms is small, most methods that use amplitudes and periods of the P-wave (e.g. Wu and Kanamori, 2005) cannot correctly determine the size of the4 earthquake in the first several seconds. The current JMA system uses the peak displacement amplitude for the magnitude estimation, and the magnitude saturated at about M8 1 minute after the first P-wave arrival. . Magnitudes of smaller earthquakes can be correctly identified from the first few seconds of P- or S-wave arrivals, but this M9 event cannot be characterized in such a short time. The only way to correctly characterize the size of the Tohoku

  7. Seismicity and earthquake risk in western Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. COSENTINO

    1978-06-01

    Full Text Available The seismicity and the earthquake risk in Western Sicily are here
    evaluated on the basis of the experimental data referring to the historical
    and instrumentally recorded earthquakes in this area (from 1248
    up to 1968, which have been thoroughly collected, analyzed, tested and
    normalized in order to assure the quasi-stationarity of the series of
    events.
    The approximated magnitude values — obtained by means of a compared
    analysis of the magnitude and epicentral intensity values of the
    latest events — have allowed to study the parameters of the frequency-
    magnitude relation with both the classical exponential model and
    the truncated exponential one previously proposed by the author.
    So, the basic parameters, including the maximum possible regional
    magnitude, have been estimated by means of different procedures, and
    their behaviours have been studied as functions of the threshold magnitude.

  8. An evolutionary approach to real-time moment magnitude estimation via inversion of displacement spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caprio, M.; Lancieri, M.; Cua, G. B.; Zollo, A.; Wiemer, S.

    2011-01-01

    We present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. The method consists of two components: 1) estimating seismic moment by finding the low frequency plateau Ω0, the corner frequency fc and attenuation factor (Q) that best fit the observed displacement spectra assuming a Brune ω2 model, and 2) estimating magnitude and its uncertainty based on the estimate of seismic moment. A novel characteristic of this method is that is does not rely on empirically derived relationships, but rather involves direct estimation of quantities related to the moment magnitude. SI magnitude and uncertainty estimates are updated each second following the initial P detection. We tested the SI approach on broadband and strong motion waveforms data from 158 Southern California events, and 25 Japanese events for a combined magnitude range of 3 ≤ M ≤ 7. Based on the performance evaluated on this dataset, the SI approach can potentially provide stable estimates of magnitude within 10 seconds from the initial earthquake detection.

  9. Harnessing the Collective Power of Eyewitnesses for Improved Earthquake Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Lefebvre, S.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.

    2013-12-01

    earthquakes within, as an average 90s of their occurrence, and can map, in certain cases, the damaged areas. Thanks to the flashsourced and crowdsourced information, we developed an innovative Twitter earthquake information service (currently under test and to be open by November) which intends to offer notifications for earthquakes that matter for the public only. It provides timely information for felt and damaging earthquakes regardless their magnitude and heads-up for seismologists. In conclusion, the experience developed at the EMSC demonstrates the benefit of involving eyewitnesses in earthquake surveillance. The data collected directly and indirectly from eyewitnesses complement information derived from monitoring networks and contribute to improved services. By increasing interaction between science and society, it opens new opportunities for raising awareness on seismic hazard.

  10. Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucouvalas, A. C.; Gkasios, M.; Tselikas, N. T.; Drakatos, G.

    2015-06-01

    The FDL method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. In order to test improvement of the method we used all +8R earthquakes recorded since 1900, (86 earthquakes from USGS data). We have developed the FDL numbers for each of those seeds, and examined the earthquake hit rates (for a window of 3, i.e. +-1 day of target date) and for <6.5R. The successes are counted for each one of the 86 earthquake seeds and we compare the MFDL method with the FDL method. In every case we find improvement when the starting seed date is on the planetary trigger date prior to the earthquake. We observe no improvement only when a planetary trigger coincided with the earthquake date and in this case the FDL method coincides with the MFDL. Based on the MDFL method we present the prediction method capable of predicting global events or localized earthquakes and we will discuss the accuracy of the method in as far as the prediction and location parts of the method. We show example calendar style predictions for global events as well as for the Greek region using

  11. Electrical resistivity variations associated with earthquakes on the san andreas fault.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzella, A; Morrison, H F

    1974-09-06

    A 24 percent precursory change in apparent electrical resistivity was observed before a magnitude 3.9 earthquake of strike-slip nature on the San Andreas fault in central California. The experimental configuration and numerical calculations suggest that the change is associated with a volume at depth rather than some near-surface phenomenon. The character and duration of the precursor period agree well with those of other earthquake studies and support a dilatant earthquake mechanism model.

  12. Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    Estimates of the probability that an ML 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the ML 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.

  13. Chilean megathrust earthquake recurrence linked to frictional contrast at depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, M.; Li, S.; Melnick, D.; Bedford, J. R.; Baez, J. C.; Motagh, M.; Metzger, S.; Vajedian, S.; Sippl, C.; Gutknecht, B. D.; Contreras-Reyes, E.; Deng, Z.; Tassara, A.; Oncken, O.

    2018-04-01

    Fundamental processes of the seismic cycle in subduction zones, including those controlling the recurrence and size of great earthquakes, are still poorly understood. Here, by studying the 2016 earthquake in southern Chile—the first large event within the rupture zone of the 1960 earthquake (moment magnitude (Mw) = 9.5)—we show that the frictional zonation of the plate interface fault at depth mechanically controls the timing of more frequent, moderate-size deep events (Mw shallow earthquakes (Mw > 8.5). We model the evolution of stress build-up for a seismogenic zone with heterogeneous friction to examine the link between the 2016 and 1960 earthquakes. Our results suggest that the deeper segments of the seismogenic megathrust are weaker and interseismically loaded by a more strongly coupled, shallower asperity. Deeper segments fail earlier ( 60 yr recurrence), producing moderate-size events that precede the failure of the shallower region, which fails in a great earthquake (recurrence >110 yr). We interpret the contrasting frictional strength and lag time between deeper and shallower earthquakes to be controlled by variations in pore fluid pressure. Our integrated analysis strengthens understanding of the mechanics and timing of great megathrust earthquakes, and therefore could aid in the seismic hazard assessment of other subduction zones.

  14. a Collaborative Cyberinfrastructure for Earthquake Seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Roussel, F.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Lefebvre, S.; Steed, R.

    2013-12-01

    One of the challenges in real time seismology is the prediction of earthquake's impact. It is particularly true for moderate earthquake (around magnitude 6) located close to urbanised areas, where the slightest uncertainty in event location, depth, magnitude estimates, and/or misevaluation of propagation characteristics, site effects and buildings vulnerability can dramatically change impact scenario. The Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) has developed a cyberinfrastructure to collect observations from eyewitnesses in order to provide in-situ constraints on actual damages. This cyberinfrastructure takes benefit of the natural convergence of earthquake's eyewitnesses on EMSC website (www.emsc-csem.org), the second global earthquake information website within tens of seconds of the occurrence of a felt event. It includes classical crowdsourcing tools such as online questionnaires available in 39 languages, and tools to collect geolocated pics. It also comprises information derived from the real time analysis of the traffic on EMSC website, a method named flashsourcing; In case of a felt earthquake, eyewitnesses reach EMSC website within tens of seconds to find out the cause of the shaking they have just been through. By analysing their geographical origin through their IP address, we automatically detect felt earthquakes and in some cases map the damaged areas through the loss of Internet visitors. We recently implemented a Quake Catcher Network (QCN) server in collaboration with Stanford University and the USGS, to collect ground motion records performed by volunteers and are also involved in a project to detect earthquakes from ground motions sensors from smartphones. Strategies have been developed for several social media (Facebook, Twitter...) not only to distribute earthquake information, but also to engage with the Citizens and optimise data collection. A smartphone application is currently under development. We will present an overview of this

  15. Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Paul S.; Wald, David J.; Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Allen, Trevor I.; Hearne, Michael G.; Marano, Kristin D.; Hotovec, Alicia J.; Fee, Jeremy

    2009-01-01

    Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population.

  16. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-02-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are much more prevalent than traditional networks and contain accelerometers that can also be used to detect earthquakes. We report on the development of a new type of seismic system, MyShake, that harnesses personal/private smartphone sensors to collect data and analyze earthquakes. We show that smartphones can record magnitude 5 earthquakes at distances of 10 km or less and develop an on-phone detection capability to separate earthquakes from other everyday shakes. Our proof-of-concept system then collects earthquake data at a central site where a network detection algorithm confirms that an earthquake is under way and estimates the location and magnitude in real time. This information can then be used to issue an alert of forthcoming ground shaking. MyShake could be used to enhance EEW in regions with traditional networks and could provide the only EEW capability in regions without. In addition, the seismic waveforms recorded could be used to deliver rapid microseism maps, study impacts on buildings, and possibly image shallow earth structure and earthquake rupture kinematics.

  17. Earthquake modelling at the country level using aggregated spatio-temporal point processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lieshout, van M.N.M.; Stein, A.

    2011-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to derive a risk map for earthquake occurrences in Pakistan from a catalogue that contains spatial coordinates of shallow earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or larger aggregated over calendar years. We test relative temporal stationarity and use the inhomogeneous J–function to

  18. Earthquakes and Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2008

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes are low-probability, high-consequence events. Though they may occur only once in the life of a school, they can have devastating, irreversible consequences. Moderate earthquakes can cause serious damage to building contents and non-structural building systems, serious injury to students and staff, and disruption of building operations.…

  19. Bam Earthquake in Iran

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    Following their request for help from members of international organisations, the permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran has given the following bank account number, where you can donate money to help the victims of the Bam earthquake. Re: Bam earthquake 235 - UBS 311264.35L Bubenberg Platz 3001 BERN

  20. Tradable Earthquake Certificates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woerdman, Edwin; Dulleman, Minne

    2018-01-01

    This article presents a market-based idea to compensate for earthquake damage caused by the extraction of natural gas and applies it to the case of Groningen in the Netherlands. Earthquake certificates give homeowners a right to yearly compensation for both property damage and degradation of living

  1. Geodetic constraints on afterslip characteristics following the March 9, 2011, Sanriku-oki earthquake, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohta, Yusaku; Hino, Ryota; Inazu, Daisuke; Ohzono, Mako; Ito, Yoshihiro; Mishina, Masaaki; Iinuma, Takeshi; Nakajima, Junichi; Osada, Yukihito; Suzuki, Kensuke; Fujimoto, Hiromi; Tachibana, Kenji; Demachi, Tomotsugu; Miura, Satoshi

    2012-08-01

    A magnitude 7.3 foreshock occurred at the subducting Pacific plate interface on March 9, 2011, 51 h before the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku earthquake off the Pacific coast of Japan. We propose a coseismic and postseismic afterslip model of the magnitude 7.3 event based on a global positioning system network and ocean bottom pressure gauge sites. The estimated coseismic slip and afterslip areas show complementary spatial distributions; the afterslip distribution is located up-dip of the coseismic slip for the foreshock and northward of hypocenter of the Tohoku earthquake. The slip amount for the afterslip is roughly consistent with that determined by repeating earthquake analysis carried out in a previous study. The estimated moment release for the afterslip reached magnitude 6.8, even within a short time period of 51h. A volumetric strainmeter time series also suggests that this event advanced with a rapid decay time constant compared with other typical large earthquakes.

  2. Toward real-time regional earthquake simulation II: Real-time Online earthquake Simulation (ROS) of Taiwan earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Shiann-Jong; Liu, Qinya; Tromp, Jeroen; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Liang, Wen-Tzong; Huang, Bor-Shouh

    2014-06-01

    We developed a Real-time Online earthquake Simulation system (ROS) to simulate regional earthquakes in Taiwan. The ROS uses a centroid moment tensor solution of seismic events from a Real-time Moment Tensor monitoring system (RMT), which provides all the point source parameters including the event origin time, hypocentral location, moment magnitude and focal mechanism within 2 min after the occurrence of an earthquake. Then, all of the source parameters are automatically forwarded to the ROS to perform an earthquake simulation, which is based on a spectral-element method (SEM). A new island-wide, high resolution SEM mesh model is developed for the whole Taiwan in this study. We have improved SEM mesh quality by introducing a thin high-resolution mesh layer near the surface to accommodate steep and rapidly varying topography. The mesh for the shallow sedimentary basin is adjusted to reflect its complex geometry and sharp lateral velocity contrasts. The grid resolution at the surface is about 545 m, which is sufficient to resolve topography and tomography data for simulations accurate up to 1.0 Hz. The ROS is also an infrastructural service, making online earthquake simulation feasible. Users can conduct their own earthquake simulation by providing a set of source parameters through the ROS webpage. For visualization, a ShakeMovie and ShakeMap are produced during the simulation. The time needed for one event is roughly 3 min for a 70 s ground motion simulation. The ROS is operated online at the Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica (http://ros.earth.sinica.edu.tw/). Our long-term goal for the ROS system is to contribute to public earth science outreach and to realize seismic ground motion prediction in real-time.

  3. Historic Eastern Canadian earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asmis, G.J.K.; Atchinson, R.J.

    1981-01-01

    Nuclear power plants licensed in Canada have been designed to resist earthquakes: not all plants, however, have been explicitly designed to the same level of earthquake induced forces. Understanding the nature of strong ground motion near the source of the earthquake is still very tentative. This paper reviews historical and scientific accounts of the three strongest earthquakes - St. Lawrence (1925), Temiskaming (1935), Cornwall (1944) - that have occurred in Canada in 'modern' times, field studies of near-field strong ground motion records and their resultant damage or non-damage to industrial facilities, and numerical modelling of earthquake sources and resultant wave propagation to produce accelerograms consistent with the above historical record and field studies. It is concluded that for future construction of NPP's near-field strong motion must be explicitly considered in design

  4. Simulation analysis of earthquake response of nuclear power plant to the 2003 Miyagi-Oki earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshihiro Ogata; Kiyoshi Hirotani; Masayuki Higuchi; Shingo Nakayama

    2005-01-01

    On May 26, 2003 an earthquake of magnitude scale 7.1 (Japan Meteorological Agency) occurred just offshore of Miyagi Prefecture. This was the largest earthquake ever experienced by the nuclear power plant of Tohoku Electric Power Co. in Onagawa (hereafter the Onagawa Nuclear Power Plant) during the 19 years since it had started operations in 1984. In this report, we review the vibration characteristics of the reactor building of the Onagawa Nuclear Power Plant Unit 1 based on acceleration records observed at the building, and give an account of a simulation analysis of the earthquake response carried out to ascertain the appropriateness of design procedure and a seismic safety of the building. (authors)

  5. Performance of HEPA filters at LLNL following the 1980 and 1989 earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergman, W.; Elliott, J.; Wilson, K.

    1995-01-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has experienced two significant earthquakes for which data is available to assess the ability of HEPA filters to withstand seismic conditions. A 5.9 magnitude earthquake with an epicenter 10 miles from LLNL struck on January 24, l980. Estimates of the peak ground accelerations ranged from 0.2 to 0.3 g. A 7.0 magnitude earthquake with an epicenter about 50 miles from LLNL struck on October 17, 1989. Measurements of the ground accelerations at LLNL averaged 0.1 g. The results from the in-place filter tests obtained after each of the earthquakes were compiled and studied to determine if the earthquakes had caused filter leakage. Our study showed that only the 1980 earthquake resulted in a small increase in the number of HEPA filters developing leaks. In the 12 months following the 1980 and 1989 earthquakes, the in-place filter tests showed 8.0% and 4.1% of all filters respectively developed leaks. The average percentage of filters developing leaks from 1980 to 1993 was 3.3%+/-1.7%. The increase in the filter leaks is significant for the 1980 earthquake, but not for the 1989 earthquake. No contamination was detected following the earthquakes that would suggest transient releases from the filtration system

  6. Standard concerning the design of nuclear power stations in earthquake-prone districts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirillov, A.P.; Anbriashivili, Y.K.; Suvilova, A.V.

    1980-01-01

    The measures of security assurance against the effect of radioactive contamination has become more and more complex due to the construction of nuclear power stations of diverse types. The aseismatic measures for the nuclear power stations built in the districts where earthquakes of different intensity occur are important problems. All main machinery and equipments and emergency systems in power stations must be protected from earthquakes, and this makes the solution of problems difficult. At present in USSR, the provisional standard concerning the design of atomic energy facilities built in earthquake-prone districts is completed. The basic philosophy of the standard is to decide the general requirements as the conditions for the design of nuclear power stations built in earthquake-prone districts. The lowest earthquake activity in the construction districts is considered as magnitude 4, and in the districts where earthquake activity is magnitude 9 or more, the construction of nuclear power stations is prohibited. Two levels of earthquake action are specified for the design: design earthquake and the largest design earthquake. The construction sites of nuclear power stations must be 15 to 150 km distant from the potential sources of earthquakes. Nuclear power stations are regarded as the aseismatically guaranteed type when the safety of reactors is secured under the application of the standard. The buildings and installations are classified into three classes regarding the aseismatic properties. (Kako, I.)

  7. Investigation of the relationship between earthquakes and indoor radon concentrations at a building in Gyeongju, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Wook Kim

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This article measured and analyzed the indoor radon concentrations at one university building in Gyeongju, Republic of Korea, to investigate if there is any relationship between earthquakes and indoor radon concentration. Since 12 September 2016, when two 5.1 and 5.8 magnitude earthquakes occurred, hundreds of aftershocks affected Gyeongju until January 2017. The measurements were made at the ground floor of the Energy Engineering Hall of Dongguk University in Gyeongju over a period between February 2016 and January 2017. The measurements were made with an RAD7 detector on the basis of the US Environmental Protection Agency measurement protocol. Each measurement was continuously made every 30 minutes over the measurement period every month. Among earthquakes with 2.0 or greater magnitude, the earthquakes whose occurrence timings fell into the measurement periods were screened for further analysis. We observed similar spike-like patterns between the indoor radon concentration distributions and earthquakes: a sudden increase in the peak indoor radon concentration 1–4 days before an earthquake, gradual decrease before the earthquake, and sudden drop on the day of the earthquake if the interval between successive earthquakes was moderately longer, for example, 3 days in this article. Keywords: Earthquakes, Gyeongju, Indoor Radon Concentration, RAD7, Radon Anomaly

  8. Performance of HEPA filters at LLNL following the 1980 and 1989 earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergman, W.; Elliott, J.; Wilson, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, CA (United States)

    1995-02-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has experienced two significant earthquakes for which data is available to assess the ability of HEPA filters to withstand seismic conditions. A 5.9 magnitude earthquake with an epicenter 10 miles from LLNL struck on January 24, l980. Estimates of the peak ground accelerations ranged from 0.2 to 0.3 g. A 7.0 magnitude earthquake with an epicenter about 50 miles from LLNL struck on October 17, 1989. Measurements of the ground accelerations at LLNL averaged 0.1 g. The results from the in-place filter tests obtained after each of the earthquakes were compiled and studied to determine if the earthquakes had caused filter leakage. Our study showed that only the 1980 earthquake resulted in a small increase in the number of HEPA filters developing leaks. In the 12 months following the 1980 and 1989 earthquakes, the in-place filter tests showed 8.0% and 4.1% of all filters respectively developed leaks. The average percentage of filters developing leaks from 1980 to 1993 was 3.3%+/-1.7%. The increase in the filter leaks is significant for the 1980 earthquake, but not for the 1989 earthquake. No contamination was detected following the earthquakes that would suggest transient releases from the filtration system.

  9. Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance and "Istanbul Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.

    2009-04-01

    The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) earthquake with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly earthquake prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory earthquake insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large earthquake. The annualized earthquake losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the earthquake losses that need to be paid after a large earthquake in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible rates, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration rates elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing

  10. Magnitude scaling relationship from the first P-wave arrivals on Canada's west coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshaghi, A.; Tiampo, K. F.

    2011-12-01

    The empirical magnitude scaling relationship from ground-motion period parameter τc is derived using vertical waveforms recorded in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) along Canada's west coast. A high-pass filtered displacement amplitude parameter, Pd, is calculated from the initial 3 s of the P waveforms and the empirical relationship between Pd and peak ground velocity, PGV, is derived using the same data set. We selected earthquakes of M >3.0 recorded during 1996-2009 by the seismic network stations in the region operated by National Resources Canada (NRCan). In total, 90 events were selected and the vertical components of the earthquakes signals were converted to ground velocity and displacement. The displacements were filtered with a one-way Butterworth high-pass filter with a cut-off frequency of 0.075 Hz. Pd and τc are computed from the vertical seismogram components. While the average magnitude error was approximately 0.70 magnitude units when using the individual record, the error dropped to approximately 0.5 magnitude units when using the average τc for each event. In case of PGV, the average error is approximately 0.3. These relationships may be used for initial steps in establishing an earthquake early warning system for the CSZ.

  11. Leadership in a Time of Adversity: A Story from the New Zealand Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Juliette

    2011-01-01

    At 12.51 p.m. on Tuesday, 22 February, Christchurch and the Canterbury region were hit with a 6.4 magnitude earthquake. While not as strong as the 7.1 magnitude earthquake experienced in September, this one was much more violent in its intensity and also occurred in the middle of a busy working and school day. A hundred and eighty people died in…

  12. Statistical characteristics of seismo-ionospheric GPS TEC disturbances prior to global Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes (1998-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Munawar; Jin, Shuanggen

    2015-12-01

    Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies are still challenging and unclear to obtain and understand, particularly for different earthquake magnitudes and focal depths as well as types of fault. In this paper, the seismo-ionospheric disturbances (SID) related to global earthquakes with 1492 Mw ≥ 5.0 from 1998 to 2014 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC) of GPS global ionosphere maps (GIM). Statistical analysis of 10-day TEC data before global Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes shows significant enhancement 5 days before an earthquake of Mw ≥ 6.0 at a 95% confidence level. Earthquakes with a focal depth of less than 60 km and Mw ≥ 6.0 are presumably the root of deviation in the ionospheric TEC because earthquake breeding zones have gigantic quantities of energy at shallower focal depths. Increased anomalous TEC is recorded in cumulative percentages beyond Mw = 5.5. Sharpness in cumulative percentages is evident in seismo-ionospheric disturbance prior to Mw ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Seismo-ionospheric disturbances related to strike slip and thrust earthquakes are noticeable for magnitude Mw6.0-7.0 earthquakes. The relative values reveal high ratios (up to 2) and low ratios (up to -0.5) within 5 days prior to global earthquakes for positive and negative anomalies. The anomalous patterns in TEC related to earthquakes are possibly due to the coupling of high amounts of energy from earthquake breeding zones of higher magnitude and shallower focal depth.

  13. Magnitude, moment, and measurement: The seismic mechanism controversy and its resolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyake, Teru

    This paper examines the history of two related problems concerning earthquakes, and the way in which a theoretical advance was involved in their resolution. The first problem is the development of a physical, as opposed to empirical, scale for measuring the size of earthquakes. The second problem is that of understanding what happens at the source of an earthquake. There was a controversy about what the proper model for the seismic source mechanism is, which was finally resolved through advances in the theory of elastic dislocations. These two problems are linked, because the development of a physically-based magnitude scale requires an understanding of what goes on at the seismic source. I will show how the theoretical advances allowed seismologists to re-frame the questions they were trying to answer, so that the data they gathered could be brought to bear on the problem of seismic sources in new ways. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

    2012-01-17

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  15. Test of Poisson Process for Earthquakes in and around Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noh, Myunghyun; Choi, Hoseon

    2015-01-01

    Since Cornell's work on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (hereafter, PSHA), majority of PSHA computer codes are assuming that the earthquake occurrence is Poissonian. To the author's knowledge, it is uncertain who first opened the issue of the Poisson process for the earthquake occurrence. The systematic PSHA in Korea, led by the nuclear industry, were carried out for more than 25 year with the assumption of the Poisson process. However, the assumption of the Poisson process has never been tested. Therefore, the test is of significance. We tested whether the Korean earthquakes follow the Poisson process or not. The Chi-square test with the significance level of 5% was applied. The test turned out that the Poisson process could not be rejected for the earthquakes of magnitude 2.9 or larger. However, it was still observed in the graphical comparison that some portion of the observed distribution significantly deviated from the Poisson distribution. We think this is due to the small earthquake data. The earthquakes of magnitude 2.9 or larger occurred only 376 times during 34 years. Therefore, the judgment on the Poisson process derived in the present study is not conclusive

  16. Tsunamigenic Ratio of the Pacific Ocean earthquakes and a proposal for a Tsunami Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Suppasri

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Pacific Ocean is the location where two-thirds of tsunamis have occurred, resulting in a great number of casualties. Once information on an earthquake has been issued, it is important to understand if there is a tsunami generation risk in relation with a specific earthquake magnitude or focal depth. This study proposes a Tsunamigenic Ratio (TR that is defined as the ratio between the number of earthquake-generated tsunamis and the total number of earthquakes. Earthquake and tsunami data used in this study were selected from a database containing tsunamigenic earthquakes from prior 1900 to 2011. The TR is calculated from earthquake events with a magnitude greater than 5.0, a focal depth shallower than 200 km and a sea depth less than 7 km. The results suggest that a great earthquake magnitude and a shallow focal depth have a high potential to generate tsunamis with a large tsunami height. The average TR in the Pacific Ocean is 0.4, whereas the TR for specific regions of the Pacific Ocean varies from 0.3 to 0.7. The TR calculated for each region shows the relationship between three influential parameters: earthquake magnitude, focal depth and sea depth. The three parameters were combined and proposed as a dimensionless parameter called the Tsunami Index (TI. TI can express better relationship with the TR and with maximum tsunami height, while the three parameters mentioned above cannot. The results show that recent submarine earthquakes had a higher potential to generate a tsunami with a larger tsunami height than during the last century. A tsunami is definitely generated if the TI is larger than 7.0. The proposed TR and TI will help ascertain the tsunami generation risk of each earthquake event based on a statistical analysis of the historical data and could be an important decision support tool during the early tsunami warning stage.

  17. Comparison of earthquake source parameters and interseismic plate coupling variations in global subduction zones (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilek, S. L.; Moyer, P. A.; Stankova-Pursley, J.

    2010-12-01

    Geodetically determined interseismic coupling variations have been found in subduction zones worldwide. These coupling variations have been linked to heterogeneities in interplate fault frictional conditions. These connections to fault friction imply that observed coupling variations are also important in influencing details in earthquake rupture behavior. Because of the wealth of newly available geodetic models along many subduction zones, it is now possible to examine detailed variations in coupling and compare to seismicity characteristics. Here we use a large catalog of earthquake source time functions and slip models for moderate to large magnitude earthquakes to explore these connections, comparing earthquake source parameters with available models of geodetic coupling along segments of the Japan, Kurile, Kamchatka, Peru, Chile, and Alaska subduction zones. In addition, we use published geodetic results along the Costa Rica margin to compare with source parameters of small magnitude earthquakes recorded with an onshore-offshore network of seismometers. For the moderate to large magnitude earthquakes, preliminary results suggest a complex relationship between earthquake parameters and estimates of strongly and weakly coupled segments of the plate interface. For example, along the Kamchatka subduction zone, these earthquakes occur primarily along the transition between strong and weak coupling, with significant heterogeneity in the pattern of moment scaled duration with respect to the coupling estimates. The longest scaled duration event in this catalog occurred in a region of strong coupling. Earthquakes along the transition between strong and weakly coupled exhibited the most complexity in the source time functions. Use of small magnitude (0.5 earthquake spectra, with higher corner frequencies and higher mean apparent stress for earthquakes that occur in along the Osa Peninsula relative to the Nicoya Peninsula, mimicking the along-strike variations in

  18. Earthquakes, September-October 1986

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1987-01-01

    There was one great earthquake (8.0 and above) during this reporting period in the South Pacific in the Kermadec Islands. There were no major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) but earthquake-related deaths were reported in Greece and in El Salvador. There were no destrcutive earthquakes in the United States.

  19. Geodetic Finite-Fault-based Earthquake Early Warning Performance for Great Earthquakes Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhl, C. J.; Melgar, D.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    GNSS-based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms estimate fault-finiteness and unsaturated moment magnitude for the largest, most damaging earthquakes. Because large events are infrequent, algorithms are not regularly exercised and insufficiently tested on few available datasets. The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) is a GNSS-based finite-fault algorithm developed as part of the ShakeAlert EEW system in the western US. Performance evaluations using synthetic earthquakes offshore Cascadia showed that G-larmS satisfactorily recovers magnitude and fault length, providing useful alerts 30-40 s after origin time and timely warnings of ground motion for onshore urban areas. An end-to-end test of the ShakeAlert system demonstrated the need for GNSS data to accurately estimate ground motions in real-time. We replay real data from several subduction-zone earthquakes worldwide to demonstrate the value of GNSS-based EEW for the largest, most damaging events. We compare predicted ground acceleration (PGA) from first-alert-solutions with those recorded in major urban areas. In addition, where applicable, we compare observed tsunami heights to those predicted from the G-larmS solutions. We show that finite-fault inversion based on GNSS-data is essential to achieving the goals of EEW.

  20. Nucleation speed limit on remote fluid induced earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Thomas E.; Akinci, Aybige; Malignini, Luca

    2017-01-01

    Earthquakes triggered by other remote seismic events are explained as a response to long-traveling seismic waves that temporarily stress the crust. However, delays of hours or days after seismic waves pass through are reported by several studies, which are difficult to reconcile with the transient stresses imparted by seismic waves. We show that these delays are proportional to magnitude and that nucleation times are best fit to a fluid diffusion process if the governing rupture process involves unlocking a magnitude-dependent critical nucleation zone. It is well established that distant earthquakes can strongly affect the pressure and distribution of crustal pore fluids. Earth’s crust contains hydraulically isolated, pressurized compartments in which fluids are contained within low-permeability walls. We know that strong shaking induced by seismic waves from large earthquakes can change the permeability of rocks. Thus, the boundary of a pressurized compartment may see its permeability rise. Previously confined, overpressurized pore fluids may then diffuse away, infiltrate faults, decrease their strength, and induce earthquakes. Magnitude-dependent delays and critical nucleation zone conclusions can also be applied to human-induced earthquakes.

  1. Nucleation speed limit on remote fluid-induced earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Tom; Malagnini, Luca; Akinci, Aybige

    2017-01-01

    Earthquakes triggered by other remote seismic events are explained as a response to long-traveling seismic waves that temporarily stress the crust. However, delays of hours or days after seismic waves pass through are reported by several studies, which are difficult to reconcile with the transient stresses imparted by seismic waves. We show that these delays are proportional to magnitude and that nucleation times are best fit to a fluid diffusion process if the governing rupture process involves unlocking a magnitude-dependent critical nucleation zone. It is well established that distant earthquakes can strongly affect the pressure and distribution of crustal pore fluids. Earth’s crust contains hydraulically isolated, pressurized compartments in which fluids are contained within low-permeability walls. We know that strong shaking induced by seismic waves from large earthquakes can change the permeability of rocks. Thus, the boundary of a pressurized compartment may see its permeability rise. Previously confined, overpressurized pore fluids may then diffuse away, infiltrate faults, decrease their strength, and induce earthquakes. Magnitude-dependent delays and critical nucleation zone conclusions can also be applied to human-induced earthquakes. PMID:28845448

  2. The Challenge of Centennial Earthquakes to Improve Modern Earthquake Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saragoni, G. Rodolfo

    2008-01-01

    The recent commemoration of the centennial of the San Francisco and Valparaiso 1906 earthquakes has given the opportunity to reanalyze their damages from modern earthquake engineering perspective. These two earthquakes plus Messina Reggio Calabria 1908 had a strong impact in the birth and developing of earthquake engineering. The study of the seismic performance of some up today existing buildings, that survive centennial earthquakes, represent a challenge to better understand the limitations of our in use earthquake design methods. Only Valparaiso 1906 earthquake, of the three considered centennial earthquakes, has been repeated again as the Central Chile, 1985, Ms = 7.8 earthquake. In this paper a comparative study of the damage produced by 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes is done in the neighborhood of Valparaiso harbor. In this study the only three centennial buildings of 3 stories that survived both earthquakes almost undamaged were identified. Since for 1985 earthquake accelerogram at El Almendral soil conditions as well as in rock were recoded, the vulnerability analysis of these building is done considering instrumental measurements of the demand. The study concludes that good performance of these buildings in the epicentral zone of large earthquakes can not be well explained by modern earthquake engineering methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use in the future of more suitable instrumental parameters, such as the destructiveness potential factor, to describe earthquake demand

  3. Seismic swarm associated with the 2008 eruption of Kasatochi Volcano, Alaska: earthquake locations and source parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruppert, Natalia G.; Prejean, Stephanie G.; Hansen, Roger A.

    2011-01-01

    An energetic seismic swarm accompanied an eruption of Kasatochi Volcano in the central Aleutian volcanic arc in August of 2008. In retrospect, the first earthquakes in the swarm were detected about 1 month prior to the eruption onset. Activity in the swarm quickly intensified less than 48 h prior to the first large explosion and subsequently subsided with decline of eruptive activity. The largest earthquake measured as moment magnitude 5.8, and a dozen additional earthquakes were larger than magnitude 4. The swarm exhibited both tectonic and volcanic characteristics. Its shear failure earthquake features were b value = 0.9, most earthquakes with impulsive P and S arrivals and higher-frequency content, and earthquake faulting parameters consistent with regional tectonic stresses. Its volcanic or fluid-influenced seismicity features were volcanic tremor, large CLVD components in moment tensor solutions, and increasing magnitudes with time. Earthquake location tests suggest that the earthquakes occurred in a distributed volume elongated in the NS direction either directly under the volcano or within 5-10 km south of it. Following the MW 5.8 event, earthquakes occurred in a new crustal volume slightly east and north of the previous earthquakes. The central Aleutian Arc is a tectonically active region with seismicity occurring in the crusts of the Pacific and North American plates in addition to interplate events. We postulate that the Kasatochi seismic swarm was a manifestation of the complex interaction of tectonic and magmatic processes in the Earth's crust. Although magmatic intrusion triggered the earthquakes in the swarm, the earthquakes failed in context of the regional stress field.

  4. A new reference global instrumental earthquake catalogue (1900-2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Giacomo, D.; Engdahl, B.; Bondar, I.; Storchak, D. A.; Villasenor, A.; Bormann, P.; Lee, W.; Dando, B.; Harris, J.

    2011-12-01

    For seismic hazard studies on a global and/or regional scale, accurate knowledge of the spatial distribution of seismicity, the magnitude-frequency relation and the maximum magnitudes is of fundamental importance. However, such information is normally not homogeneous (or not available) for the various seismically active regions of the Earth. To achieve the GEM objectives (www.globalquakemodel.org) of calculating and communicating earthquake risk worldwide, an improved reference global instrumental catalogue for large earthquakes spanning the entire 100+ years period of instrumental seismology is an absolute necessity. To accomplish this task, we apply the most up-to-date techniques and standard observatory practices for computing the earthquake location and magnitude. In particular, the re-location procedure benefits both from the depth determination according to Engdahl and Villaseñor (2002), and the advanced technique recently implemented at the ISC (Bondár and Storchak, 2011) to account for correlated error structure. With regard to magnitude, starting from the re-located hypocenters, the classical surface and body-wave magnitudes are determined following the new IASPEI standards and by using amplitude-period data of phases collected from historical station bulletins (up to 1970), which were not available in digital format before the beginning of this work. Finally, the catalogue will provide moment magnitude values (including uncertainty) for each seismic event via seismic moment, via surface wave magnitude or via other magnitude types using empirical relationships. References Engdahl, E.R., and A. Villaseñor (2002). Global seismicity: 1900-1999. In: International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, eds. W.H.K. Lee, H. Kanamori, J.C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger, Part A, 665-690, Academic Press, San Diego. Bondár, I., and D. Storchak (2011). Improved location procedures at the International Seismological Centre, Geophys. J. Int., doi:10.1111/j

  5. Has El Salvador Fault Zone produced M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes? The 1719 El Salvador earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canora, C.; Martínez-Díaz, J.; Álvarez-Gómez, J.; Villamor, P.; Ínsua-Arévalo, J.; Alonso-Henar, J.; Capote, R.

    2013-05-01

    Historically, large earthquakes, Mw ≥ 7.0, in the Εl Salvador area have been attributed to activity in the Cocos-Caribbean subduction zone. Τhis is correct for most of the earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.5. However, recent paleoseismic evidence points to the existence of large earthquakes associated with rupture of the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, an Ε-W oriented strike slip fault system that extends for 150 km through central Εl Salvador. Τo calibrate our results from paleoseismic studies, we have analyzed the historical seismicity of the area. In particular, we suggest that the 1719 earthquake can be associated with paleoseismic activity evidenced in the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone. Α reinterpreted isoseismal map for this event suggests that the damage reported could have been a consequence of the rupture of Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, rather than rupture of the subduction zone. Τhe isoseismal is not different to other upper crustal earthquakes in similar tectonovolcanic environments. We thus challenge the traditional assumption that only the subduction zone is capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 in this region. Τhis result has broad implications for future risk management in the region. Τhe potential occurrence of strong ground motion, significantly higher and closer to the Salvadorian populations that those assumed to date, must be considered in seismic hazard assessment studies in this area.

  6. Romanian earthquakes analysis using BURAR seismic array

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borleanu, Felix; Rogozea, Maria; Nica, Daniela; Popescu, Emilia; Popa, Mihaela; Radulian, Mircea

    2008-01-01

    Bucovina seismic array (BURAR) is a medium-aperture array, installed in 2002 in the northern part of Romania (47.61480 N latitude, 25.21680 E longitude, 1150 m altitude), as a result of the cooperation between Air Force Technical Applications Center, USA and National Institute for Earth Physics, Romania. The array consists of ten elements, located in boreholes and distributed over a 5 x 5 km 2 area; nine with short-period vertical sensors and one with a broadband three-component sensor. Since the new station has been operating the earthquake survey of Romania's territory has been significantly improved. Data recorded by BURAR during 01.01.2005 - 12.31.2005 time interval are first processed and analyzed, in order to establish the array detection capability of the local earthquakes, occurred in different Romanian seismic zones. Subsequently a spectral ratios technique was applied in order to determine the calibration relationships for magnitude, using only the information gathered by BURAR station. The spectral ratios are computed relatively to a reference event, considered as representative for each seismic zone. This method has the advantage to eliminate the path effects. The new calibration procedure is tested for the case of Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes and proved to be very efficient in constraining the size of these earthquakes. (authors)

  7. Relaxation creep model of impending earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morgounov, V. A. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Physics of the Earth, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2001-04-01

    The alternative view of the current status and perspective of seismic prediction studies is discussed. In the problem of the ascertainment of the uncertainty relation Cognoscibility-Unpredictability of Earthquakes, priorities of works on short-term earthquake prediction are defined due to the advantage that the final stage of nucleation of earthquake is characterized by a substantial activation of the process while its strain rate increases by the orders of magnitude and considerably increased signal-to-noise ratio. Based on the creep phenomenon under stress relaxation conditions, a model is proposed to explain different images of precursors of impending tectonic earthquakes. The onset of tertiary creep appears to correspond to the onset of instability and inevitably fails unless it unloaded. At this stage, the process acquires the self-regulating character to the greatest extent the property of irreversibility, one of the important components of prediction reliability. Data in situ suggest a principal possibility to diagnose the process of preparation by ground measurements of acoustic and electromagnetic emission in the rocks under constant strain in the condition of self-relaxed stress until the moment of fracture are discussed in context. It was obtained that electromagnetic emission precedes but does not accompany the phase of macrocrak development.

  8. The Kresna earthquake of 1904 in Bulgaria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ambraseys, N. [Imperial College of Science, London (United Kingdom). Technology and Medicine, Dept. of Civil Engineering

    2001-02-01

    The Kresna earthquake in 1904 in Bulgaria is one of the largest shallow 20th century events on land in the Balkans. This event, which was preceded by a large foreshock, has hitherto been assigned a range of magnitudes up to M{sub s} = 7.8 but the reappraisal of instrumental data yields as much smaller value of M{sub s} = 7.2 and a re-assesment of the intensity distribution suggests 7.1. Thus both instrumental and macroseismic data appear consistent with a magnitude which is also compatible with the fault segmentation and local morphology of the region which cannot accommodate shallow events much larger than about 7.0. The relatively large size of the main shock suggests surface faulting but the available field evidence is insufficient to establish the dimensions, attitude and amount of dislocation, except perhaps in the vicinity of Krupnik. This down sizing of the Kresna earthquake has important consequences for tectonics and earthquake hazard estimates in the Balkans.

  9. The Kresna earthquake of 1904 in Bulgaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. N. Ambraseys

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available The Kresna earthquake in 1904 in Bulgaria is one of the largest shallow 20th century events on land in the Balkans. This event, which was preceded by a large foreshock, has hitherto been assigned a range of magnitudes up to M S = 7.8 but the reappraisal of instrumental data yields a much smaller value of M S = 7.2 and a re-assement of the intensity distribution suggests 7.1. Thus both instrumental and macroseismic data appear consistent with a magnitude which is also compatible with the fault segmentation and local morphology of the region which cannot accommodate shallow events much larger than about 7.0. The relatively large size of the main shock suggests surface faulting but the available field evidence is insufficient to establish the dimensions, attitude andamount of dislocation, except perhaps in the vicinity of Krupnik. This downsizing of the Kresna earthquake has important consequences for tectonics and earthquake hazard estimates in the Balkans.

  10. Spine surgery in Nepal: the 2015 earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutterlin, Chester E

    2015-12-01

    At noon on Saturday, 25 April 2015, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck Nepal. It was centered in the Himalaya northwest of Kathmandu, the capital of over 1 million people. The violent tremors were felt as far away as New Delhi, India 1,000 km from the epicenter, but the worst of its destructive force was experienced in the heavily populated Kathmandu valley and in the remote mountainous villages of the Himalaya. Ancient temples crumbled; poorly constructed buildings collapsed; men, women, and children were trapped and injured, sometimes fatally. Avalanches killed mountain climbers, Sherpa guides, and porters at Everest base camp (EBC). The death toll to date exceeds 8,600 with as many as 20,000 injured. Spinal Health International (SHI), a nonprofit volunteer organization, has been active in Nepal in past years and responded to requests by Nepali spine surgeons for assistance with traumatic spine injury victims following the earthquake. SHI volunteers were present during the 2(nd) major earthquake of magnitude 7.3 on 12 May 2015. Past and current experiences in Nepal will be presented.

  11. Physics of Earthquake Disaster: From Crustal Rupture to Building Collapse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uenishi, Koji

    2018-05-01

    Earthquakes of relatively greater magnitude may cause serious, sometimes unexpected failures of natural and human-made structures, either on the surface, underground, or even at sea. In this review, by treating several examples of extraordinary earthquake-related failures that range from the collapse of every second building in a commune to the initiation of spontaneous crustal rupture at depth, we consider the physical background behind the apparently abnormal earthquake disaster. Simple but rigorous dynamic analyses reveal that such seemingly unusual failures actually occurred for obvious reasons, which may remain unrecognized in part because in conventional seismic analyses only kinematic aspects of the effects of lower-frequency seismic waves below 1 Hz are normally considered. Instead of kinematics, some dynamic approach that takes into account the influence of higher-frequency components of waves over 1 Hz will be needed to anticipate and explain such extraordinary phenomena and mitigate the impact of earthquake disaster in the future.

  12. Basic earthquake engineering from seismology to analysis and design

    CERN Document Server

    Sucuoğlu, Halûk

    2014-01-01

    This book provides senior undergraduate students, master students and structural engineers who do not have a background in the field with core knowledge of structural earthquake engineering that will be invaluable in their professional lives. The basics of seismotectonics, including the causes, magnitude, and intensity of earthquakes, are first explained. Then the book introduces basic elements of seismic hazard analysis and presents the concept of a seismic hazard map for use in seismic design. Subsequent chapters cover key aspects of the response analysis of simple systems and building struc­tures to earthquake ground motions, design spectrum, the adoption of seismic analysis procedures in seismic design codes, seismic design principles and seismic design of reinforced concrete structures. Helpful worked examples on seismic analysis of linear, nonlinear and base isolated buildings, earthquake-resistant design of frame and frame-shear wall systems are included, most of which can be solved using a hand calcu...

  13. Preliminary quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties and damages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badal, J.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; González, Á.

    2005-01-01

    Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence...... of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number...... the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out...

  14. Triggering Earthquakes in Science, Politics and Chinese Hydropower

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gorm Hansen, Louise Lyngfeldt

    This thesis conducts a controversy study focusing on the intermingling of political considerations and emerging science in a controversy over whether or not the Zipingpu dam in China’s Sichuan Province caused the magnitude 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th 2008. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake...... was one of the deadliest, costliest and biggest earthquakes in China in three decades. Over 90,000 people died, went missing or were presumed dead, and economic damage was estimated at over 100 billion US dollars in 2013. For scientists to suggest that such an unfathomable disaster could have been man......-made was controversial to say the least. Not only because the root cause of the earthquake pointed to was a dam, and dam projects are inherently rife with conflict, but also because the Zipingpu dam was itself a high priority project for the Chinese central government and the Sichuan Province....

  15. Understanding the magnitude dependence of PGA and PGV in NGA-West 2 data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.

    2014-01-01

    The Next Generation Attenuation‐West 2 (NGA‐West 2) 2014 ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) model ground motions as a function of magnitude and distance, using empirically derived coefficients (e.g., Bozorgniaet al., 2014); as such, these GMPEs do not clearly employ earthquake source parameters beyond moment magnitude (M) and focal mechanism. To better understand the magnitude‐dependent trends in the GMPEs, we build a comprehensive earthquake source‐based model to explain the magnitude dependence of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity in the NGA‐West 2 ground‐motion databases and GMPEs. Our model employs existing models (Hanks and McGuire, 1981; Boore, 1983, 1986; Anderson and Hough, 1984) that incorporate a point‐source Brune model, including a constant stress drop and the high‐frequency attenuation parameter κ0, random vibration theory, and a finite‐fault assumption at the large magnitudes to describe the data from magnitudes 3 to 8. We partition this range into four different magnitude regions, each of which has different functional dependences on M. Use of the four magnitude partitions separately allows greater understanding of what happens in any one subrange, as well as the limiting conditions between the subranges. This model provides a remarkably good fit to the NGA data for magnitudes from 3magnitude data, for which the corner frequency is masked by the attenuation of high frequencies. That this simple, source‐based model matches the NGA‐West 2 GMPEs and data so well suggests that considerable simplicity underlies the parametrically complex NGA GMPEs.

  16. Statistical short-term earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Y Y; Knopoff, L

    1987-06-19

    A statistical procedure, derived from a theoretical model of fracture growth, is used to identify a foreshock sequence while it is in progress. As a predictor, the procedure reduces the average uncertainty in the rate of occurrence for a future strong earthquake by a factor of more than 1000 when compared with the Poisson rate of occurrence. About one-third of all main shocks with local magnitude greater than or equal to 4.0 in central California can be predicted in this way, starting from a 7-year database that has a lower magnitude cut off of 1.5. The time scale of such predictions is of the order of a few hours to a few days for foreshocks in the magnitude range from 2.0 to 5.0.

  17. Structural performance of the DOE's Idaho National Engineering Laboratory during the 1983 Borah Peak Earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guenzler, R.C.; Gorman, V.W.

    1985-01-01

    The 1983 Borah Peak Earthquake (7.3 Richter magnitude) was the largest earthquake ever experienced by the DOE's Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Reactor and plant facilities are generally located about 90 to 110 km (60 miles) from the epicenter. Several reactors were operating normally at the time of the earthquake. Based on detailed inspections, comparisons of measured accelerations with design levels, and instrumental seismograph information, it was concluded that the 1983 Borah Peak Earthquake created no safety problems for INEL reactors or other facilities. 10 references, 16 figures, 2 tables

  18. Source study of the Jan Mayen transform fault strike-slip earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Pérez, Q.; Ottemöller, L.

    2014-07-01

    Seismic source parameters of oceanic transform zone earthquakes have been relatively poorly studied. Previous studies showed that this type of earthquakes has unique characteristics such as not only the relatively common occurrence of slow events with weak seismic radiation at high frequencies but also the occurrence of some events that have high apparent stress indicating strong high frequency radiation. We studied 5 strike-slip earthquakes in the Jan Mayen fracture zone with magnitudes in the range of 5.9 centroid time delay compared to other oceanic transform fault earthquakes.

  19. Scale-free networks of earthquakes and aftershocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baiesi, Marco; Paczuski, Maya

    2004-01-01

    We propose a metric to quantify correlations between earthquakes. The metric consists of a product involving the time interval and spatial distance between two events, as well as the magnitude of the first one. According to this metric, events typically are strongly correlated to only one or a few preceding ones. Thus a classification of events as foreshocks, main shocks, or aftershocks emerges automatically without imposing predetermined space-time windows. In the simplest network construction, each earthquake receives an incoming link from its most correlated predecessor. The number of aftershocks for any event, identified by its outgoing links, is found to be scale free with exponent γ=2.0(1). The original Omori law with p=1 emerges as a robust feature of seismicity, holding up to years even for aftershock sequences initiated by intermediate magnitude events. The broad distribution of distances between earthquakes and their linked aftershocks suggests that aftershock collection with fixed space windows is not appropriate

  20. Changes in groundwater chemistry before two consecutive earthquakes in Iceland

    KAUST Repository

    Skelton, Alasdair

    2014-09-21

    Groundwater chemistry has been observed to change before earthquakes and is proposed as a precursor signal. Such changes include variations in radon count rates1, 2, concentrations of dissolved elements3, 4, 5 and stable isotope ratios4, 5. Changes in seismic wave velocities6, water levels in boreholes7, micro-seismicity8 and shear wave splitting9 are also thought to precede earthquakes. Precursor activity has been attributed to expansion of rock volume7, 10, 11. However, most studies of precursory phenomena lack sufficient data to rule out other explanations unrelated to earthquakes12. For example, reproducibility of a precursor signal has seldom been shown and few precursors have been evaluated statistically. Here we analyse the stable isotope ratios and dissolved element concentrations of groundwater taken from a borehole in northern Iceland between 2008 and 2013. We find that the chemistry of the groundwater changed four to six months before two greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred in October 2012 and April 2013. Statistical analyses indicate that the changes in groundwater chemistry were associated with the earthquakes. We suggest that the changes were caused by crustal dilation associated with stress build-up before each earthquake, which caused different groundwater components to mix. Although the changes we detect are specific for the site in Iceland, we infer that similar processes may be active elsewhere, and that groundwater chemistry is a promising target for future studies on the predictability of earthquakes.

  1. An interdisciplinary approach to study Pre-Earthquake processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S. A.; Hattori, K.; Taylor, P. T.

    2017-12-01

    We will summarize a multi-year research effort on wide-ranging observations of pre-earthquake processes. Based on space and ground data we present some new results relevant to the existence of pre-earthquake signals. Over the past 15-20 years there has been a major revival of interest in pre-earthquake studies in Japan, Russia, China, EU, Taiwan and elsewhere. Recent large magnitude earthquakes in Asia and Europe have shown the importance of these various studies in the search for earthquake precursors either for forecasting or predictions. Some new results were obtained from modeling of the atmosphere-ionosphere connection and analyses of seismic records (foreshocks /aftershocks), geochemical, electromagnetic, and thermodynamic processes related to stress changes in the lithosphere, along with their statistical and physical validation. This cross - disciplinary approach could make an impact on our further understanding of the physics of earthquakes and the phenomena that precedes their energy release. We also present the potential impact of these interdisciplinary studies to earthquake predictability. A detail summary of our approach and that of several international researchers will be part of this session and will be subsequently published in a new AGU/Wiley volume. This book is part of the Geophysical Monograph series and is intended to show the variety of parameters seismic, atmospheric, geochemical and historical involved is this important field of research and will bring this knowledge and awareness to a broader geosciences community.

  2. What Googling Trends Tell Us About Public Interest in Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Y. J.; Maharjan, R.

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have shown that immediately after large earthquakes, there is a period of increased public interest. This represents a window of opportunity for science communication and disaster relief fundraising efforts to reach more people. However, how public interest varies for different earthquakes has not been quantified systematically on a global scale. We analyze how global search interest for the term "earthquake" on Google varies following earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 5.5 from 2004 to 2016. We find that there is a spike in search interest after large earthquakes followed by an exponential temporal decay. Preliminary results suggest that the period of increased search interest scales with death toll and correlates with the period of increased media coverage. This suggests that the relationship between the period of increased public interest in earthquakes and death toll might be an effect of differences in media coverage. However, public interest never remains elevated for more than three weeks. Therefore, to take advantage of this short period of increased public interest, science communication and disaster relief fundraising efforts have to act promptly following devastating earthquakes.

  3. Changes in groundwater chemistry before two consecutive earthquakes in Iceland

    KAUST Repository

    Skelton, Alasdair; André n, Margareta; Kristmannsdó ttir, Hrefna; Stockmann, Gabrielle; Mö rth, Carl-Magnus; Sveinbjö rnsdó ttir, Á rny; Jonsson, Sigurjon; Sturkell, Erik; Guð rú nardó ttir, Helga Rakel; Hjartarson, Hreinn; Siegmund, Heike; Kockum, Ingrid

    2014-01-01

    Groundwater chemistry has been observed to change before earthquakes and is proposed as a precursor signal. Such changes include variations in radon count rates1, 2, concentrations of dissolved elements3, 4, 5 and stable isotope ratios4, 5. Changes in seismic wave velocities6, water levels in boreholes7, micro-seismicity8 and shear wave splitting9 are also thought to precede earthquakes. Precursor activity has been attributed to expansion of rock volume7, 10, 11. However, most studies of precursory phenomena lack sufficient data to rule out other explanations unrelated to earthquakes12. For example, reproducibility of a precursor signal has seldom been shown and few precursors have been evaluated statistically. Here we analyse the stable isotope ratios and dissolved element concentrations of groundwater taken from a borehole in northern Iceland between 2008 and 2013. We find that the chemistry of the groundwater changed four to six months before two greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred in October 2012 and April 2013. Statistical analyses indicate that the changes in groundwater chemistry were associated with the earthquakes. We suggest that the changes were caused by crustal dilation associated with stress build-up before each earthquake, which caused different groundwater components to mix. Although the changes we detect are specific for the site in Iceland, we infer that similar processes may be active elsewhere, and that groundwater chemistry is a promising target for future studies on the predictability of earthquakes.

  4. Regional dependence in earthquake early warning and real time seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caprio, M.

    2013-01-01

    An effective earthquake prediction method is still a Chimera. What we can do at the moment, after the occurrence of a seismic event, is to provide the maximum available information as soon as possible. This can help in reducing the impact of the quake on population or and better organize the rescue operations in case of post-event actions. This study strives to improve the evaluation of earthquake parameters shortly after the occurrence of a major earthquake, and the characterization of regional dependencies in Real-Time Seismology. The recent earthquake experience from Tohoku (M 9.0, 11.03.2011) showed how an efficient EEW systems can inform numerous people and thus potentially reduce the economic and human losses by distributing warning messages several seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the case of devastating earthquakes, usually, in the first minutes to days after the main shock, the common communications channels can be overloaded or broken. In such cases, a precise knowledge of the macroseismic intensity distribution will represent a decisive contribution in help management and in the valuation of losses. In this work, I focused on improving the adaptability of EEW systems (chapters 1 and 2) and in deriving a global relationship for converting peak ground motion into macroseismic intensity and vice versa (chapter 3). For EEW applications, in chapter 1 we present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. Our method can be applied in any region without the need for calibration. SI magnitude and uncertainty estimates are updated each second following the initial P detection and potentially stabilize within 10 seconds from the initial earthquake detection

  5. Regional dependence in earthquake early warning and real time seismology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caprio, M.

    2013-07-01

    An effective earthquake prediction method is still a Chimera. What we can do at the moment, after the occurrence of a seismic event, is to provide the maximum available information as soon as possible. This can help in reducing the impact of the quake on population or and better organize the rescue operations in case of post-event actions. This study strives to improve the evaluation of earthquake parameters shortly after the occurrence of a major earthquake, and the characterization of regional dependencies in Real-Time Seismology. The recent earthquake experience from Tohoku (M 9.0, 11.03.2011) showed how an efficient EEW systems can inform numerous people and thus potentially reduce the economic and human losses by distributing warning messages several seconds before the arrival of seismic waves. In the case of devastating earthquakes, usually, in the first minutes to days after the main shock, the common communications channels can be overloaded or broken. In such cases, a precise knowledge of the macroseismic intensity distribution will represent a decisive contribution in help management and in the valuation of losses. In this work, I focused on improving the adaptability of EEW systems (chapters 1 and 2) and in deriving a global relationship for converting peak ground motion into macroseismic intensity and vice versa (chapter 3). For EEW applications, in chapter 1 we present an evolutionary approach for magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning based on real-time inversion of displacement spectra. The Spectrum Inversion (SI) method estimates magnitude and its uncertainty by inferring the shape of the entire displacement spectral curve based on the part of the spectra constrained by available data. Our method can be applied in any region without the need for calibration. SI magnitude and uncertainty estimates are updated each second following the initial P detection and potentially stabilize within 10 seconds from the initial earthquake detection

  6. Earthquake Loss Scenarios in the Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, M.; Gupta, S.; Rosset, P.; Chamlagain, D.

    2017-12-01

    are subject to errors due to the many unknowns. Nevertheless, the order of magnitude of the disasters we estimate is correct as has been shown by the fact that 2 out of 7 Himalayan disaster scenarios published in March 2005 came true within factors of about 2.5 (the consequences of the 2005 Kashmir and the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes.)

  7. Exceptional Ground Accelerations and Velocities Caused by Earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, John

    2008-01-17

    This project aims to understand the characteristics of the free-field strong-motion records that have yielded the 100 largest peak accelerations and the 100 largest peak velocities recorded to date. The peak is defined as the maximum magnitude of the acceleration or velocity vector during the strong shaking. This compilation includes 35 records with peak acceleration greater than gravity, and 41 records with peak velocities greater than 100 cm/s. The results represent an estimated 150,000 instrument-years of strong-motion recordings. The mean horizontal acceleration or velocity, as used for the NGA ground motion models, is typically 0.76 times the magnitude of this vector peak. Accelerations in the top 100 come from earthquakes as small as magnitude 5, while velocities in the top 100 all come from earthquakes with magnitude 6 or larger. Records are dominated by crustal earthquakes with thrust, oblique-thrust, or strike-slip mechanisms. Normal faulting mechanisms in crustal earthquakes constitute under 5% of the records in the databases searched, and an even smaller percentage of the exceptional records. All NEHRP site categories have contributed exceptional records, in proportions similar to the extent that they are represented in the larger database.

  8. Relations between source parameters for large Persian earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Nemati

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Empirical relationships for magnitude scales and fault parameters were produced using 436 Iranian intraplate earthquakes of recently regional databases since the continental events represent a large portion of total seismicity of Iran. The relations between different source parameters of the earthquakes were derived using input information which has usefully been provided from the databases after 1900. Suggested equations for magnitude scales relate the body-wave, surface-wave as well as local magnitude scales to scalar moment of the earthquakes. Also, dependence of source parameters as surface and subsurface rupture length and maximum surface displacement on the moment magnitude for some well documented earthquakes was investigated. For meeting this aim, ordinary linear regression procedures were employed for all relations. Our evaluations reveal a fair agreement between obtained relations and equations described in other worldwide and regional works in literature. The M0-mb and M0-MS equations are correlated well to the worldwide relations. Also, both M0-MS and M0-ML relations have a good agreement with regional studies in Taiwan. The equations derived from this study mainly confirm the results of the global investigations about rupture length of historical and instrumental events. However, some relations like MW-MN and MN-ML which are remarkably unlike to available regional works (e.g., American and Canadian were also found.

  9. 1 Comparison of Earthquake Source Characteristics in the Kachchh ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    42

    Empirical relations for Mo versus fc, Mo versus r, and Mo versus ∆σ, for both KRB and SH regions, were obtained by least square fitting (Figures 9a-d, Equations 13–21). For the KRB, these relationships are obtained for different sets of magnitude ranges viz., for Mw 1.5-3.8 and ...... International Handbook of Earthquake.

  10. The 2009 Samoa-Tonga great earthquake triggered doublet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lay, T.; Ammon, C.J.; Kanamori, H.; Rivera, L.; Koper, K.D.; Hutko, Alexander R.

    2010-01-01

    Great earthquakes (having seismic magnitudes of at least 8) usually involve abrupt sliding of rock masses at a boundary between tectonic plates. Such interplate ruptures produce dynamic and static stress changes that can activate nearby intraplate aftershocks, as is commonly observed in the trench-slope region seaward of a great subduction zone thrust event1-4. The earthquake sequence addressed here involves a rare instance in which a great trench-slope intraplate earthquake triggered extensive interplate faulting, reversing the typical pattern and broadly expanding the seismic and tsunami hazard. On 29 September 2009, within two minutes of the initiation of a normal faulting event with moment magnitude 8.1 in the outer trench-slope at the northern end of the Tonga subduction zone, two major interplate underthrusting subevents (both with moment magnitude 7.8), with total moment equal to a second great earthquake of moment magnitude 8.0, ruptured the nearby subduction zone megathrust. The collective faulting produced tsunami waves with localized regions of about 12metres run-up that claimed 192 lives in Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga. Overlap of the seismic signals obscured the fact that distinct faults separated by more than 50km had ruptured with different geometries, with the triggered thrust faulting only being revealed by detailed seismic wave analyses. Extensive interplate and intraplate aftershock activity was activated over a large region of the northern Tonga subduction zone. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

  11. Generation of artificial earthquake time histories for seismic design at Hanford, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salmon, M.W.; Kuilanoff, G.

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the development of artificial time-histories is to provide the designer with ground motion estimates which will meet the requirements of the design guidelines at the Hanford site. In particular, the artificial time histories presented in this paper were prepared to assist designers of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant (HWVP) with time histories that envelop the requirements for both a large magnitude earthquake (MI > 6.0) and a small magnitude, near-field earthquake (MI < 5. 0). A background of the requirements for both the large magnitude and small magnitude events is presented in this paper. The work done in generating time histories which produce response spectra matching those of the design seismic events is also presented. Finally, some preliminary results from studies performed using the small-magnitude near-filed earthquake time-history are presented

  12. Data base and seismicity studies for Fagaras, Romania crustal earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moldovan, I.-A.; Enescu, B. D.; Pantea, A.; Constantin, A.; Bazacliu, O.; Malita, Z.; Moldoveanu, T.

    2002-01-01

    Besides the major impact of the Vrancea seismic region, one of the most important intermediate earthquake sources of Europe, the Romanian crustal earthquake sources, from Fagaras, Banat, Crisana, Bucovina or Dobrogea regions, have to be taken into consideration for seismicity studies or seismic hazard assessment. To determine the characteristics of the seismicity for Fagaras seismogenic region, a revised and updated catalogue of the Romanian earthquakes, recently compiled by Oncescu et al. (1999) is used. The catalogue contains 471 tectonic earthquakes and 338 induced earthquakes and is homogenous starting with 1471 for I>VIII and for I>VII starting with 1801. The catalogue is complete for magnitudes larger than 3 starting with 1982. In the studied zone only normal earthquakes occur, related to intracrustal fractures situated from 5 to 30 km depth. Most of them are of low energy, but once in a century a large destructive event occurs with epicentral intensity larger than VIII. The maximum expected magnitude is M GR = 6.5 and the epicenter distribution outlines significant clustering in the zones and on the lines mentioned in the tectonic studies. Taking into account the date of the last major earthquake (1916) and the return periods of severe damaging shocks of over 85 years it is to be expected very soon a large shock in the area. That's why a seismicity and hazard study for this zone is necessary. In the paper there are studied the b parameter variation (the mean value is 0.69), the activity value, the return periods, and seismicity maps and different histograms are plotted. At the same time there are excluded from the catalogue the explosions due to Campulung quarry. Because the catalogue contains the aftershocks for the 1916 earthquake for the seismicity studies we have excluded these shocks. (authors)

  13. Global variations of large megathrust earthquake rupture characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamori, Hiroo

    2018-01-01

    Despite the surge of great earthquakes along subduction zones over the last decade and advances in observations and analysis techniques, it remains unclear whether earthquake complexity is primarily controlled by persistent fault properties or by dynamics of the failure process. We introduce the radiated energy enhancement factor (REEF), given by the ratio of an event’s directly measured radiated energy to the calculated minimum radiated energy for a source with the same seismic moment and duration, to quantify the rupture complexity. The REEF measurements for 119 large [moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 to 9.2] megathrust earthquakes distributed globally show marked systematic regional patterns, suggesting that the rupture complexity is strongly influenced by persistent geological factors. We characterize this as the existence of smooth and rough rupture patches with varying interpatch separation, along with failure dynamics producing triggering interactions that augment the regional influences on large events. We present an improved asperity scenario incorporating both effects and categorize global subduction zones and great earthquakes based on their REEF values and slip patterns. Giant earthquakes rupturing over several hundred kilometers can occur in regions with low-REEF patches and small interpatch spacing, such as for the 1960 Chile, 1964 Alaska, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, or in regions with high-REEF patches and large interpatch spacing as in the case for the 2004 Sumatra and 1906 Ecuador-Colombia earthquakes. Thus, combining seismic magnitude Mw and REEF, we provide a quantitative framework to better represent the span of rupture characteristics of great earthquakes and to understand global seismicity. PMID:29750186

  14. From Tornadoes to Earthquakes: Forecast Verification for Binary Events Applied to the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan,Earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Chih Chen

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecast verification procedures for statistical events with binary outcomes typically rely on the use of contingency tables and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC diagrams. Originally developed for the statistical evaluation of tornado forecasts on a county-by-county basis, these methods can be adapted to the evaluation of competing earthquake forecasts. Here we apply these methods retrospectively to two forecasts for the M 7.3 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake. We show that a previously proposed forecast method that is based on evaluating changes in seismic intensity on a regional basis is superior to a forecast based only on the magnitude of seismic intensity in the same region. Our results confirm earlier suggestions that the earthquake preparation process for events such as the Chi-Chi earthquake involves anomalous activation or quiescence, and that signatures of these processes can be detected in seismicity data using appropriate methods.

  15. Comparison of hypocentre parameters of earthquakes in the Aegean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özel, Nurcan M.; Shapira, Avi; Harris, James

    2007-06-01

    The Aegean Sea is one of the more seismically active areas in the Euro-Mediterranean region. The seismic activity in the Aegean Sea is monitored by a number of local agencies that contribute their data to the International Seismological Centre (ISC). Consequently, the ISC Bulletin may serve as a reliable reference for assessing the capabilities of local agencies to monitor moderate and low magnitude earthquakes. We have compared bulletins of the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) and the ISC, for the period 1976-2003 that comprises the most complete data sets for both KOERI and ISC. The selected study area is the East Aegean Sea and West Turkey, bounded by latitude 35-41°N and by longitude 24-29°E. The total number of events known to occur in this area, during 1976-2003 is about 41,638. Seventy-two percent of those earthquakes were located by ISC and 75% were located by KOERI. As expected, epicentre location discrepancy between ISC and KOERI solutions are larger as we move away from the KOERI seismic network. Out of the 22,066 earthquakes located by both ISC and KOERI, only 4% show a difference of 50 km or more. About 140 earthquakes show a discrepancy of more than 100 km. Focal Depth determinations differ mainly in the subduction zone along the Hellenic arc. Less than 2% of the events differ in their focal depth by more than 25 km. Yet, the location solutions of about 30 events differ by more than 100 km. Almost a quarter of the events listed in the ISC Bulletin are missed by KOERI, most of them occurring off the coast of Turkey, in the East Aegean. Based on the frequency-magnitude distributions, the KOERI Bulletin is complete for earthquakes with duration magnitudes Md > 2.7 (both located and assigned magnitudes) where as the threshold magnitude for events with location and magnitude determinations by ISC is mb > 4.0. KOERI magnitudes seem to be poorly correlated with ISC magnitudes suggesting relatively high uncertainty in the

  16. Earthquake Ground Motion Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Nonlinear analyses of soils, structures, and soil-structure systems offer the potential for more accurate characterization of geotechnical and structural response under strong earthquake shaking. The increasing use of advanced performance-based desig...

  17. 1988 Spitak Earthquake Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 1988 Spitak Earthquake database is an extensive collection of geophysical and geological data, maps, charts, images and descriptive text pertaining to the...

  18. Identification of earthquakes that generate tsunamis in Java and Nusa Tenggara using rupture duration analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pribadi, S., E-mail: sugengpribadimsc@gmail.com [Tsunami Warning Information Division, Indonesian Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Jalan Angkasa I No. 2, Jakarta13920 and Graduate Student of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of T (Indonesia); Puspito, N. T.; Yudistira, T.; Afnimar,; Ibrahim, G. [Global Geophysics Research Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Laksono, B. I. [Database Maintenance Division, Indonesian Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Jalan Angkasa I No.2, Jakarta 13920 (Indonesia); Adnan, Z. [Database Maintenance Division, Indonesian Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Jalan Angkasa I No. 2, Jakarta 13920 and Graduate Student of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of Technol (Indonesia)

    2014-09-25

    Java and Nusa Tenggara are the tectonically active of Sunda arc. This study discuss the rupture duration as a manifestation of the power of earthquake-generated tsunami. We use the teleseismic (30° - 90°) body waves with high-frequency energy Seismometer is from IRIS network as amount 206 broadband units. We applied the Butterworth high bandpass (1 - 2 Hz) filtered. The arrival and travel times started from wave phase of P - PP which based on Jeffrey Bullens table with TauP program. The results are that the June 2, 1994 Banyuwangi and the July 17, 2006 Pangandaran earthquakes identified as tsunami earthquakes with long rupture duration (To > 100 second), medium magnitude (7.6 < Mw < 7.9) and located near the trench. The others are 4 tsunamigenic earthquakes and 3 inland earthquakes with short rupture duration start from To > 50 second which depend on its magnitude. Those events are located far from the trench.

  19. Electromagnetic Manifestation of Earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Uvarov Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    In a joint analysis of the results of recording the electrical component of the natural electromagnetic field of the Earth and the catalog of earthquakes in Kamchatka in 2013, unipolar pulses of constant amplitude associated with earthquakes were identified, whose activity is closely correlated with the energy of the electromagnetic field. For the explanation, a hypothesis about the cooperative character of these impulses is proposed.

  20. Electromagnetic Manifestation of Earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uvarov Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In a joint analysis of the results of recording the electrical component of the natural electromagnetic field of the Earth and the catalog of earthquakes in Kamchatka in 2013, unipolar pulses of constant amplitude associated with earthquakes were identified, whose activity is closely correlated with the energy of the electromagnetic field. For the explanation, a hypothesis about the cooperative character of these impulses is proposed.

  1. The Northern Rupture of the 1762 Arakan Meghathrust Earthquake and other Potential Earthquake Sources in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akhter, S. H.; Seeber, L.; Steckler, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. It occupies a major part of the Bengal Basin, which contains the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (GBD), the largest and one of the most active of world deltas, and is located along the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt. As such it is vulnerable to many natural hazards, especially earthquakes. The country sits at the junction of three tectonic plates - Indian, Eurasian, and the Burma 'sliver' of the Sunda plate. These form two boundaries where plates converge- the India-Eurasia plate boundary to the north forming the Himalaya Arc and the India-Burma plate boundary to the east forming the Indo-Burma Arc. The India-Burma plate boundary is exceptionally wide because collision with the GBD feeds an exception amount of sediment into the subduction zone. Thus the Himalayan continent collision orogeny along with its syntaxes to the N and NE of Bangladesh and the Burma Arc subduction boundary surround Bangladesh on two sides with active faults of regional scale, raising the potential for high-magnitude earthquakes. In recent years Bangladesh has experienced minor to moderate earthquakes. Historical records show that major and great earthquakes have ravaged the country and the neighboring region several times over the last 450 years. Field observations of Tertiary structures along the Chittagong-Teknaf coast reveal that the rupture of 1762 Arakan megathrust earthquake extended as far north as the Sitakund anticline to the north of the city of Chittagong. This earthquake brought changes to the landscape, uplifting the Teknaf peninsula and St. Martin's Island by about 2-2.5 m, and activated two mud volcanos along the axis of the Sitakund anticline, where large tabular blocks of exotic crystalline limestone, were tectonically transported from a deep-seated formation along with the eruptive mud. Vast area of the coast including inland areas east of the lower Meghna River were inundated. More than 500 peoples died near

  2. UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Edward H.; ,

    2015-01-01

    With innovations, fresh data, and lessons learned from recent earthquakes, scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, a region under constant threat from potentially damaging events. The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF" (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Overall the results confirm previous findings, but with some significant changes because of model improvements. For example, compared to the previous forecast (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2), the likelihood of moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.5) is lower, whereas that of larger events is higher. This is because of the inclusion of multifault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously. The public-safety implications of this and other model improvements depend on several factors, including site location and type of structure (for example, family dwelling compared to a long-span bridge). Building codes, earthquake insurance products, emergency plans, and other risk-mitigation efforts will be updated accordingly. This model also serves as a reminder that damaging earthquakes are inevitable for California. Fortunately, there are many simple steps residents can take to protect lives and property.

  3. Estimation of Surface Deformation due to Pasni Earthquake Using SAR Interferometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, M.; Shahzad, M. I.; Nazeer, M.; Kazmi, J. H.

    2018-04-01

    Earthquake cause ground deformation in sedimented surface areas like Pasni and that is a hazard. Such earthquake induced ground displacements can seriously damage building structures. On 7 February 2017, an earthquake with 6.3 magnitudes strike near to Pasni. We have successfully distinguished widely spread ground displacements for the Pasni earthquake by using InSAR-based analysis with Sentinel-1 satellite C-band data. The maps of surface displacement field resulting from the earthquake are generated. Sentinel-1 Wide Swath data acquired from 9 December 2016 to 28 February 2017 was used to generate displacement map. The interferogram revealed the area of deformation. The comparison map of interferometric vertical displacement in different time period was treated as an evidence of deformation caused by earthquake. Profile graphs of interferogram were created to estimate the vertical displacement range and trend. Pasni lies in strong earthquake magnitude effected area. The major surface deformation areas are divided into different zones based on significance of deformation. The average displacement in Pasni is estimated about 250 mm. Maximum pasni area is uplifted by earthquake and maximum uplifting occurs was about 1200 mm. Some of areas was subsidized like the areas near to shoreline and maximum subsidence was estimated about 1500 mm. Pasni is facing many problems due to increasing sea water intrusion under prevailing climatic change where land deformation due to a strong earthquake can augment its vulnerability.

  4. Magnitude determination for large underground nuclear explosions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, Lawrence D [Lawrence Radiation Laboratory, University of California, Livermore, CA (United States)

    1970-05-15

    A method is presented for determining the local magnitudes for large underground nuclear explosions. The Gutenberg-Richter nomograph is applied to the peak amplitudes for 24 large underground nuclear explosions that took place in Nevada. The amplitudes were measured at 18 California Wood-Anderson stations located 150-810 km from the explosion epicenter. The variation of the individual station magnitudes and magnitude corrections and the variation of the average and rms error estimates in the magnitude determinations are examined with respect to distance, azimuth, and event location. The magnitude prediction capability of the Gutenberg-Richter nomograph is examined on the basis of these two criteria, and certain corrections are suggested. The azimuthal dependence of the individual station magnitudes is investigated, and corrections for the California stations are calculated. Statistical weighting schemes for two-component data are employed, and the assumptions and limitations in the use of peak amplitudes are discussed. (author)

  5. The Landers earthquake; preliminary instrumental results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, L.; Mori, J.; Hauksson, E.

    1992-01-01

    Early on the morning of June 28, 1992, millions of people in southern California were awakened by the largest earthquake to occur in the western United States in the past 40 yrs. At 4:58 a.m PDT (local time), faulting associated with the magnitude 7.3 earthquake broke through to earth's surface near the town of Landers, California. the surface rupture then propagated 70km (45 mi) to the north and northwest along a band of faults passing through the middle of the Mojave Desert. Fortunately, the strongest shaking occurred in uninhabited regions of the Mojave Desert. Still one child was killed in Yucca Valley, and about 400 people were injured in the surrounding area. the desert communities of Landers, Yucca Valley, and Joshua Tree in San Bernardino Country suffered considerable damage to buildings and roads. Damage to water and power lines caused problems in many areas. 

  6. Statistical analysis of earthquake ground motion parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-12-01

    Several earthquake ground response parameters that define the strength, duration, and frequency content of the motions are investigated using regression analyses techniques; these techniques incorporate statistical significance testing to establish the terms in the regression equations. The parameters investigated are the peak acceleration, velocity, and displacement; Arias intensity; spectrum intensity; bracketed duration; Trifunac-Brady duration; and response spectral amplitudes. The study provides insight into how these parameters are affected by magnitude, epicentral distance, local site conditions, direction of motion (i.e., whether horizontal or vertical), and earthquake event type. The results are presented in a form so as to facilitate their use in the development of seismic input criteria for nuclear plants and other major structures. They are also compared with results from prior investigations that have been used in the past in the criteria development for such facilities

  7. Local magnitude scale for Valle Medio del Magdalena region, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Londoño, John Makario; Romero, Jaime A.

    2017-12-01

    A local Magnitude (ML) scale for Valle Medio del Magdalena (VMM) region was defined by using 514 high quality earthquakes located at VMM area and inversion of 2797 amplitude values of horizontal components of 17 stations seismic broad band stations, simulated in a Wood-Anderson seismograph. The derived local magnitude scale for VMM region was: ML =log(A) + 1.3744 ∗ log(r) + 0.0014776 ∗ r - 2.397 + S Where A is the zero-to-peak amplitude in nm in horizontal components, r is the hypocentral distance in km, and S is the station correction. Higher values of ML were obtained for VMM region compared with those obtained with the current formula used for ML determination, and with California formula. With this new scale ML values are adjusted to local conditions beneath VMM region leading to more realistic ML values. Moreover, with this new ML scale the seismicity caused by tectonic or fracking activity at VMM region can be monitored more accurately.

  8. Numerical experiments to investigate the accuracy of broad-band moment magnitude, Mwp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hara, Tatsuhiko; Nishimura, Naoki

    2011-12-01

    We perform numerical experiments to investigate the accuracy of broad-band moment magnitude, Mwp. We conduct these experiments by measuring Mwp from synthetic seismograms and comparing the resulting values to the moment magnitudes used in the calculation of synthetic seismograms. In the numerical experiments using point sources, we have found that there is a significant dependence of Mwp on focal mechanisms, and that depths phases have a large impact on Mwp estimates, especially for large shallow earthquakes. Numerical experiments using line sources suggest that the effects of source finiteness and rupture propagation on Mwp estimates are on the order of 0.2 magnitude units for vertical fault planes with pure dip-slip mechanisms and 45° dipping fault planes with pure dip-slip (thrust) mechanisms, but that the dependence is small for strike-slip events on a vertical fault plane. Numerical experiments for huge thrust faulting earthquakes on a fault plane with a shallow dip angle suggest that the Mwp estimates do not saturate in the moment magnitude range between 8 and 9, although they are underestimates. Our results are consistent with previous studies that compared Mwp estimates to moment magnitudes calculated from seismic moment tensors obtained by analyses of observed data.

  9. Charles Darwin's earthquake reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    As it is the 200th anniversary of Darwin's birth, 2009 has also been marked as 170 years since the publication of his book Journal of Researches. During the voyage Darwin landed at Valdivia and Concepcion, Chile, just before, during, and after a great earthquake, which demolished hundreds of buildings, killing and injuring many people. Land was waved, lifted, and cracked, volcanoes awoke and giant ocean waves attacked the coast. Darwin was the first geologist to observe and describe the effects of the great earthquake during and immediately after. These effects sometimes repeated during severe earthquakes; but great earthquakes, like Chile 1835, and giant earthquakes, like Chile 1960, are rare and remain completely unpredictable. This is one of the few areas of science, where experts remain largely in the dark. Darwin suggested that the effects were a result of ‘ …the rending of strata, at a point not very deep below the surface of the earth…' and ‘…when the crust yields to the tension, caused by its gradual elevation, there is a jar at the moment of rupture, and a greater movement...'. Darwin formulated big ideas about the earth evolution and its dynamics. These ideas set the tone for the tectonic plate theory to come. However, the plate tectonics does not completely explain why earthquakes occur within plates. Darwin emphasised that there are different kinds of earthquakes ‘...I confine the foregoing observations to the earthquakes on the coast of South America, or to similar ones, which seem generally to have been accompanied by elevation of the land. But, as we know that subsidence has gone on in other quarters of the world, fissures must there have been formed, and therefore earthquakes...' (we cite the Darwin's sentences following researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). These thoughts agree with results of the last publications (see Nature 461, 870-872; 636-639 and 462, 42-43; 87-89). About 200 years ago Darwin gave oneself airs by the

  10. Engineering geological aspect of Gorkha Earthquake 2015, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Basanta Raj; Andermann, Christoff; Cook, Kristen

    2016-04-01

    Strong shaking by earthquake causes massif landsliding with severe effects on infrastructure and human lives. The distribution of landslides and other hazards are depending on the combination of earthquake and local characteristics which influence the dynamic response of hillslopes. The Himalayas are one of the most active mountain belts with several kilometers of relief and is very prone to catastrophic mass failure. Strong and shallow earthquakes are very common and cause wide spread collapse of hillslopes, increasing the background landslide rate by several magnitude. The Himalaya is facing many small and large earthquakes in the past i.e. earthquakes i.e. Bihar-Nepal earthquake 1934 (Ms 8.2); Large Kangra earthquake of 1905 (Ms 7.8); Gorkha earthquake 2015 (Mw 7.8). The Mw 7.9 Gorkha earthquake has occurred on and around the main Himalayan Thrust with a hypocentral depth of 15 km (GEER 2015) followed by Mw 7.3 aftershock in Kodari causing 8700+ deaths and leaving hundreds of thousands of homeless. Most of the 3000 aftershocks located by National Seismological Center (NSC) within the first 45 days following the Gorkha Earthquake are concentrated in a narrow 40 km-wide band at midcrustal to shallow depth along the strike of the southern slope of the high Himalaya (Adhikari et al. 2015) and the ground shaking was substantially lower in the short-period range than would be expected for and earthquake of this magnitude (Moss et al. 2015). The effect of this earthquake is very unique in affected areas by showing topographic effect, liquefaction and land subsidence. More than 5000 landslides were triggered by this earthquake (Earthquake without Frontiers, 2015). Most of the landslides are shallow and occurred in weathered bedrock and appear to have mobilized primarily as raveling failures, rock slides and rock falls. Majority of landslides are limited to a zone which runs east-west, approximately parallel the lesser and higher Himalaya. There are numerous cracks in

  11. Probabilistic risk assessment of earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant and subsequent upgrade to reduce risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Day, S.A.

    1989-01-01

    An analysis to determine the risk associated with earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant was performed. Seismic analyses and structural evaluations were used to postulate building and equipment damage and radiological releases to the environment from various magnitudes of earthquakes. Dispersion modeling and dose assessment to the public were then calculated. The frequency of occurrence of various magnitudes of earthquakes were determined from the Department of Energy natural Phenomena Hazards Modeling Project. Risk to the public was probabilistically assessed for each magnitude of earthquake and for overall seismic risk. Based on the results of this Probabilistic Risk Assessment and a cost/benefit analysis, seismic upgrades are being implemented for several plutonium-handling facilities for the purpose of risk reduction

  12. Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-02-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1. For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β, of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08. We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01. The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog and

  13. Mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties and damage cost through regression analysis using matrices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urrutia, J D; Bautista, L A; Baccay, E B

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties such as death, number of injured persons, affected families and total cost of damage. To quantify the direct damages from earthquakes to human beings and properties given the magnitude, intensity, depth of focus, location of epicentre and time duration, the regression models were made. The researchers formulated models through regression analysis using matrices and used α = 0.01. The study considered thirty destructive earthquakes that hit the Philippines from the inclusive years 1968 to 2012. Relevant data about these said earthquakes were obtained from Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. Data on damages and casualties were gathered from the records of National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. This study will be of great value in emergency planning, initiating and updating programs for earthquake hazard reduction in the Philippines, which is an earthquake-prone country.

  14. Testing for the ‘predictability’ of dynamically triggered earthquakes in Geysers Geothermal Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, Chastity; Meng, Xiaofeng; Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

    2018-01-01

    The Geysers geothermal field is well known for being susceptible to dynamic triggering of earthquakes by large distant earthquakes, owing to the introduction of fluids for energy production. Yet, it is unknown if dynamic triggering of earthquakes is ‘predictable’ or whether dynamic triggering could lead to a potential hazard for energy production. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the characteristics of triggering and the physical conditions that promote triggering to determine whether or not triggering is in anyway foreseeable. We find that, at present, triggering in The Geysers is not easily ‘predictable’ in terms of when and where based on observable physical conditions. However, triggered earthquake magnitude positively correlates with peak imparted dynamic stress, and larger dynamic stresses tend to trigger sequences similar to mainshock–aftershock sequences. Thus, we may be able to ‘predict’ what size earthquakes to expect at The Geysers following a large distant earthquake.

  15. Testing for the 'predictability' of dynamically triggered earthquakes in The Geysers geothermal field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, Chastity; Meng, Xiaofeng; Hardebeck, Jeanne

    2018-03-01

    The Geysers geothermal field is well known for being susceptible to dynamic triggering of earthquakes by large distant earthquakes, owing to the introduction of fluids for energy production. Yet, it is unknown if dynamic triggering of earthquakes is 'predictable' or whether dynamic triggering could lead to a potential hazard for energy production. In this paper, our goal is to investigate the characteristics of triggering and the physical conditions that promote triggering to determine whether or not triggering is in anyway foreseeable. We find that, at present, triggering in The Geysers is not easily 'predictable' in terms of when and where based on observable physical conditions. However, triggered earthquake magnitude positively correlates with peak imparted dynamic stress, and larger dynamic stresses tend to trigger sequences similar to mainshock-aftershock sequences. Thus, we may be able to 'predict' what size earthquakes to expect at The Geysers following a large distant earthquake.

  16. Short-Term Forecasting of Taiwanese Earthquakes Using a Universal Model of Fusion-Fission Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Siew Ann; Tan, Teck Liang; Chen, Chien-Chih; Chang, Wu-Lung; Liu, Zheng; Chew, Lock Yue; Sloot, Peter M. A.; Johnson, Neil F.

    2014-01-01

    Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow. PMID:24406467

  17. Slip in the 1857 and earlier large earthquakes along the Carrizo Plain, San Andreas Fault.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zielke, Olaf; Arrowsmith, J Ramón; Grant Ludwig, Lisa; Akçiz, Sinan O

    2010-02-26

    The moment magnitude (Mw) 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857, with a approximately 350-kilometer-long surface rupture, was the most recent major earthquake along the south-central San Andreas Fault, California. Based on previous measurements of its surface slip distribution, rupture along the approximately 60-kilometer-long Carrizo segment was thought to control the recurrence of 1857-like earthquakes. New high-resolution topographic data show that the average slip along the Carrizo segment during the 1857 event was 5.3 +/- 1.4 meters, eliminating the core assumption for a linkage between Carrizo segment rupture and recurrence of major earthquakes along the south-central San Andreas Fault. Earthquake slip along the Carrizo segment may recur in earthquake clusters with cumulative slip of approximately 5 meters.

  18. Composite Earthquake Catalog of the Yellow Sea for Seismic Hazard Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, S. Y.; Kim, K. H.; LI, Z.; Hao, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Yellow Sea (a.k.a West Sea in Korea) is an epicontinental and semi-closed sea located between Korea and China. Recent earthquakes in the Yellow Sea including, but not limited to, the Seogyuckryulbi-do (1 April 2014, magnitude 5.1), Heuksan-do (21 April 2013, magnitude 4.9), Baekryung-do (18 May 2013, magnitude 4.9) earthquakes, and the earthquake swarm in the Boryung offshore region in 2013, remind us of the seismic hazards affecting east Asia. This series of earthquakes in the Yellow Sea raised numerous questions. Unfortunately, both governments have trouble in monitoring seismicity in the Yellow Sea because earthquakes occur beyond their seismic networks. For example, the epicenters of the magnitude 5.1 earthquake in the Seogyuckryulbi-do region in 2014 reported by the Korea Meteorological Administration and China Earthquake Administration differed by approximately 20 km. This illustrates the difficulty with seismic monitoring and locating earthquakes in the region, despite the huge effort made by both governments. Joint effort is required not only to overcome the limits posed by political boundaries and geographical location but also to study seismicity and the underground structures responsible. Although the well-established and developing seismic networks in Korea and China have provided unprecedented amount and quality of seismic data, high quality catalog is limited to the recent 10s of years, which is far from major earthquake cycle. It is also noticed the earthquake catalog from either country is biased to its own and cannot provide complete picture of seismicity in the Yellow Sea. In order to understand seismic hazard and tectonics in the Yellow Sea, a composite earthquake catalog has been developed. We gathered earthquake information during last 5,000 years from various sources. There are good reasons to believe that some listings account for same earthquake, but in different source parameters. We established criteria in order to provide consistent

  19. An interdisciplinary approach for earthquake modelling and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, P.; Zhuang, J.; Hattori, K.; Ogata, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake is one of the most serious disasters, which may cause heavy casualties and economic losses. Especially in the past two decades, huge/mega earthquakes have hit many countries. Effective earthquake forecasting (including time, location, and magnitude) becomes extremely important and urgent. To date, various heuristically derived algorithms have been developed for forecasting earthquakes. Generally, they can be classified into two types: catalog-based approaches and non-catalog-based approaches. Thanks to the rapid development of statistical seismology in the past 30 years, now we are able to evaluate the performances of these earthquake forecast approaches quantitatively. Although a certain amount of precursory information is available in both earthquake catalogs and non-catalog observations, the earthquake forecast is still far from satisfactory. In most case, the precursory phenomena were studied individually. An earthquake model that combines self-exciting and mutually exciting elements was developed by Ogata and Utsu from the Hawkes process. The core idea of this combined model is that the status of the event at present is controlled by the event itself (self-exciting) and all the external factors (mutually exciting) in the past. In essence, the conditional intensity function is a time-varying Poisson process with rate λ(t), which is composed of the background rate, the self-exciting term (the information from past seismic events), and the external excitation term (the information from past non-seismic observations). This model shows us a way to integrate the catalog-based forecast and non-catalog-based forecast. Against this background, we are trying to develop a new earthquake forecast model which combines catalog-based and non-catalog-based approaches.

  20. The Manchester earthquake swarm of October 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baptie, B.; Ottemoeller, L.

    2003-04-01

    An earthquake sequence started in the Greater Manchester area of the United Kingdom on October 19, 2002. This has continued to the time of writing and has consisted of more than 100 discrete earthquakes. Three temporary seismograph stations were installed to supplement existing permanent stations and to better understand the relationship between the seismicity and local geology. Due to the urban location, these were experienced by a large number of people. The largest event on October 21 had a magnitude ML 3.9. The activity appears to be an earthquake swarm, since there is no clear distinction between a main shock and aftershocks. However, most of the energy during the sequence was actually released in two earthquakes separated by a few seconds in time, on October 21 at 11:42. Other examples of swarm activity in the UK include Comrie (1788-1801, 1839-46), Glenalmond (1970-72), Doune (1997) and Blackford (1997-98, 2000-01) in central Scotland, Constantine (1981, 1986, 1992-4) in Cornwall, and Johnstonbridge (mid1980s) and Dumfries (1991,1999). The clustering of these events in time and space does suggest that there is a causal relationship between the events of the sequence. Joint hypocenter determination was used to simultaneously locate the swarm earthquakes, determine station corrections and improve the relative locations. It seems likely that all events in the sequence originate from a relatively small source volume. This is supported by the similarities in source mechanism and waveform signals between the various events. Focal depths were found to be very shallow and of the order of about 2-3 km. Source mechanisms determined for the largest of the events show strike-slip solutions along either northeast-southwest or northwest-southeast striking fault planes. The surface expression of faults in the epicentral area is generally northwest-southeast, suggesting that this is the more likely fault plane.

  1. Temporal and spatial variations in the magnitude of completeness for homogenized moment magnitude catalogue for northeast India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Ranjit; Wason, H. R.; Sharma, M. L.

    2012-02-01

    Northeast India region is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. Events data for the period 1897-2010, used in this study has been largely compiled from global ISC, NEIC and GCMT databases. Historical seismicity catalogue of Gupta et al (1986) and some events data from the bulletins of India Meteorological Department are also used. Orthogonal regression relations for conversion of body and surface wave magnitudes to M w,HRVD based on events data for the period 1978-2006 have been derived. An Orthogonal Standard Regression (OSR) relationship has also been obtained for scaling of intensity estimates to M w,NEIC using 126 global intensity events with intensity VI or greater during the period 1975-2010. Magnitude of completeness and Gutenberg-Richter (GR) recurrence parameter values have been determined for the declustered homogenized catalogue pertaining to four different time periods namely, 1897-1963, 1964-1990, 1964-2000 and 1964-2010. The M c and ` b' values are observed to decrease and increase, respectively, with addition of newer data with time. The study region has been subdivided into nine seismogenic zones keeping in view the spatial variations in earthquake occurrence and prevalent tectonics. M c, ` b' and ` a' values have been estimated with respect to each zone, and the variations in the values of these parameters have been analysed.

  2. Earthquake forecasting test for Kanto district to reduce vulnerability of urban mega earthquake disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoi, S.; Tsuruoka, H.; Nanjo, K.; Hirata, N.

    2012-12-01

    Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global project on earthquake predictability research. The final goal of this project is to search for the intrinsic predictability of the earthquake rupture process through forecast testing experiments. The Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo joined CSEP and started the Japanese testing center called as CSEP-Japan. This testing center provides an open access to researchers contributing earthquake forecast models applied to Japan. Now more than 100 earthquake forecast models were submitted on the prospective experiment. The models are separated into 4 testing classes (1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years) and 3 testing regions covering an area of Japan including sea area, Japanese mainland and Kanto district. We evaluate the performance of the models in the official suite of tests defined by CSEP. The total number of experiments was implemented for approximately 300 rounds. These results provide new knowledge concerning statistical forecasting models. We started a study for constructing a 3-dimensional earthquake forecasting model for Kanto district in Japan based on CSEP experiments under the Special Project for Reducing Vulnerability for Urban Mega Earthquake Disasters. Because seismicity of the area ranges from shallower part to a depth of 80 km due to subducting Philippine Sea plate and Pacific plate, we need to study effect of depth distribution. We will develop models for forecasting based on the results of 2-D modeling. We defined the 3D - forecasting area in the Kanto region with test classes of 1 day, 3 months, 1 year and 3 years, and magnitudes from 4.0 to 9.0 as in CSEP-Japan. In the first step of the study, we will install RI10K model (Nanjo, 2011) and the HISTETAS models (Ogata, 2011) to know if those models have good performance as in the 3 months 2-D CSEP-Japan experiments in the Kanto region before the 2011 Tohoku event (Yokoi et al., in preparation). We use CSEP

  3. Earthquake Drill using the Earthquake Early Warning System at an Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, Satoko; Yazaki, Yoshiaki; Koketsu, Kazuki

    2010-05-01

    Japan frequently suffers from many kinds of disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons, floods, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. On average, we lose about 120 people a year due to natural hazards in this decade. Above all, earthquakes are noteworthy, since it may kill thousands of people in a moment like in Kobe in 1995. People know that we may have "a big one" some day as long as we live on this land and that what to do; retrofit houses, appliance heavy furniture to walls, add latches to kitchen cabinets, and prepare emergency packs. Yet most of them do not take the action, and result in the loss of many lives. It is only the victims that learn something from the earthquake, and it has never become the lore of the nations. One of the most essential ways to reduce the damage is to educate the general public to be able to make the sound decision on what to do at the moment when an earthquake hits. This will require the knowledge of the backgrounds of the on-going phenomenon. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), therefore, offered for public subscription to choose several model areas to adopt scientific education to the local elementary schools. This presentation is the report of a year and half courses that we had at the model elementary school in Tokyo Metropolitan Area. The tectonic setting of this area is very complicated; there are the Pacific and Philippine Sea plates subducting beneath the North America and the Eurasia plates. The subduction of the Philippine Sea plate causes mega-thrust earthquakes such as the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M 7.9) making 105,000 fatalities. A magnitude 7 or greater earthquake beneath this area is recently evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years. This is of immediate concern for the devastating loss of life and property because the Tokyo urban region now has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40 % of the nation's activities, which may cause great global

  4. Necessity of management for minor earthquake to improve public acceptance of nuclear energy in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-Tae Choi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available As public acceptance of nuclear energy in Korea worsens due to the Fukushima accident and the earthquakes that occurred in the Gyeongju area near the Wolsong nuclear power plant (NPP, estimating the effects of earthquakes has become more essential for the nuclear industry. Currently, most countermeasures against earthquakes are limited to large-scale disasters. Minor-scale earthquakes used to be ignored. Even though people do not feel the shaking due to minor earthquakes and minor earthquakes incur little damage to NPPs, they can change the environmental conditions, for instance, underground water level and the conductivity of the groundwater. This study conducted a questionnaire survey of residents living in the vicinity of an NPP to determine their perception and acceptance of plant safety against minor earthquakes. The results show that the residents feel earthquakes at levels that can be felt by people, but incur little damage to NPPs, as minor earthquakes (magnitude of 2.0–3.9 and set this level as a standard for countermeasures. Even if a minor earthquake has little impact on the safety of an NPP, there is still a possibility that public opinion will get worse. This study provides analysis results about problems of earthquake measures of Korean NPPs and specific things that can bring about an effect of deterioration of public acceptance. Based on these data, this article suggests that active management of minor earthquakes is necessary for the sustainability of nuclear energy. Keywords: Earthquake Measures, Management, Minor Earthquake, Nuclear Energy, Public Acceptance

  5. Indoor radon and earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saghatelyan, E.; Petrosyan, L.; Aghbalyan, Yu.; Baburyan, M.; Araratyan, L.

    2004-01-01

    For the first time on the basis of the Spitak earthquake of December 1988 (Armenia, December 1988) experience it is found out that the earthquake causes intensive and prolonged radon splashes which, rapidly dispersing in the open space of close-to-earth atmosphere, are contrastingly displayed in covered premises (dwellings, schools, kindergartens) even if they are at considerable distance from the earthquake epicenter, and this multiplies the radiation influence on the population. The interval of splashes includes the period from the first fore-shock to the last after-shock, i.e. several months. The area affected by radiation is larger vs. Armenia's territory. The scale of this impact on population is 12 times higher than the number of people injured in Spitak, Leninakan and other settlements (toll of injured - 25 000 people, radiation-induced diseases in people - over 300 000). The influence of radiation directly correlates with the earthquake force. Such a conclusion is underpinned by indoor radon monitoring data for Yerevan since 1987 (120 km from epicenter) 5450 measurements and multivariate analysis with identification of cause-and-effect linkages between geo dynamics of indoor radon under stable and conditions of Earth crust, behavior of radon in different geological mediums during earthquakes, levels of room radon concentrations and effective equivalent dose of radiation impact of radiation dose on health and statistical data on public health provided by the Ministry of Health. The following hitherto unexplained facts can be considered as consequences of prolonged radiation influence on human organism: long-lasting state of apathy and indifference typical of the population of Armenia during the period of more than a year after the earthquake, prevalence of malignant cancer forms in disaster zones, dominating lung cancer and so on. All urban territories of seismically active regions are exposed to the threat of natural earthquake-provoked radiation influence

  6. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-01-01

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  7. Quantitative Earthquake Prediction on Global and Regional Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir G.

    2006-03-01

    The Earth is a hierarchy of volumes of different size. Driven by planetary convection these volumes are involved into joint and relative movement. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of processes on and around the fractal mesh of boundary zones, and does produce earthquakes. This hierarchy of movable volumes composes a large non-linear dynamical system. Prediction of such a system in a sense of extrapolation of trajectory into the future is futile. However, upon coarse-graining the integral empirical regularities emerge opening possibilities of prediction in a sense of the commonly accepted consensus definition worked out in 1976 by the US National Research Council. Implications of the understanding hierarchical nature of lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its unified space-energy similarity at different scales help avoiding basic errors in earthquake prediction claims. They suggest rules and recipes of adequate earthquake prediction classification, comparison and optimization. The approach has already led to the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. Its real-time testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes worldwide has proved beyond any reasonable doubt the effectiveness of practical earthquake forecasting. In the first approximation, the accuracy is about 1-5 years and 5-10 times the anticipated source dimension. Further analysis allows reducing spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at a cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean Disaster seems to be the first indication that the methodology, designed for prediction of M8.0+ earthquakes can be rescaled for prediction of both smaller magnitude earthquakes (e.g., down to M5.5+ in Italy) and

  8. Numerical Magnitude Representations Influence Arithmetic Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Julie L.; Siegler, Robert S.

    2008-01-01

    This study examined whether the quality of first graders' (mean age = 7.2 years) numerical magnitude representations is correlated with, predictive of, and causally related to their arithmetic learning. The children's pretest numerical magnitude representations were found to be correlated with their pretest arithmetic knowledge and to be…

  9. Representations of the Magnitudes of Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Michael; Siegler, Robert S.

    2010-01-01

    We tested whether adults can use integrated, analog, magnitude representations to compare the values of fractions. The only previous study on this question concluded that even college students cannot form such representations and instead compare fraction magnitudes by representing numerators and denominators as separate whole numbers. However,…

  10. Magnitude of localized magnetic moments in metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiwi, M.; Pestana, E.; Ramirez, R.

    1979-01-01

    The magnitude of the localized magnetic moment of a transition or rare earth element impurity in a metal is evaluated within the framework of the Anderson model. Rotational invariance is preserved throughout. Graphs of the magnitude of the magnetization as a function of the relevant parameters of the model are provided and discussed. (author)

  11. Lessons learned from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: Building damages and behavior of seismically isolated buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Keiko; Takayama, Mineo

    2017-10-01

    Powerful earthquakes stuck Kumamoto and Oita Prefectures in Kyushu, Japan. It began with the Magnitude 6.5 foreshock at 21:26 JST 14 April, followed by the Magnitude 7.3 mainshock at 1:25 JST 16 April, 2016. The sequence earthquakes also involved more than 1700 perceptible earthquakes as of 13 June. The entire sequence was named the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Thousands of buildings and many roads were damaged, and landslides occurred. The Japanese building standard law is revised in 1981. Structural damages were concentrated on buildings constructed prior to 1981. The area of Mashiki and Southern Aso were most badly affected, especially wooden houses extremely damaged. In Japan, Prof. Hideyuki Tada (title at the time) undertook research on laminated rubber bearings in 1978, and put it into practical use in 1981. The single family house at Yachiyodai, Chiba Prefecture is completed in 1983, it's the first seismically isolated building which is installed laminated rubber bearings in Japan. Afterward, this system is gradually adopted to mainly office buildings, like a research laboratory, a hospital, a computer center and other offices. In the 1994 Northridge earthquake, the 1995 Kobe earthquake and 2011 Tohoku earthquake, seismically isolated buildings improve these good performances, and recently number of the buildings have increased, mainly high risk area of earthquakes. Many people believed that Kumamoto was a low risk area. But there were 24 seismically isolated buildings in Kumamoto Prefecture at the time. The seismically isolated buildings indicated excellent performances during the earthquakes. They protected people, buildings and other important facilities from damages caused by the earthquake. The purpose of this paper is to discuss lessons learned from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and behavior of seismically isolated buildings in the earthquake.

  12. Local magnitudes of small contained explosions.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chael, Eric Paul

    2009-12-01

    The relationship between explosive yield and seismic magnitude has been extensively studied for underground nuclear tests larger than about 1 kt. For monitoring smaller tests over local ranges (within 200 km), we need to know whether the available formulas can be extrapolated to much lower yields. Here, we review published information on amplitude decay with distance, and on the seismic magnitudes of industrial blasts and refraction explosions in the western U. S. Next we measure the magnitudes of some similar shots in the northeast. We find that local magnitudes ML of small, contained explosions are reasonably consistent with the magnitude-yield formulas developed for nuclear tests. These results are useful for estimating the detection performance of proposed local seismic networks.

  13. Earthquake clustering in modern seismicity and its relationship with strong historical earthquakes around Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jian; Main, Ian G.; Musson, Roger M. W.

    2017-11-01

    Beijing, China's capital city, is located in a typical intraplate seismic belt, with relatively high-quality instrumental catalogue data available since 1970. The Chinese historical earthquake catalogue contains six strong historical earthquakes of Ms ≥ 6 around Beijing, the earliest in 294 AD. This poses a significant potential hazard to one of the most densely populated and economically active parts of China. In some intraplate areas, persistent clusters of events associated with historical events can occur over centuries, for example, the ongoing sequence in the New Madrid zone of the eastern US. Here we will examine the evidence for such persistent clusters around Beijing. We introduce a metric known as the `seismic density index' that quantifies the degree of clustering of seismic energy release. For a given map location, this multi-dimensional index depends on the number of events, their magnitudes, and the distances to the locations of the surrounding population of earthquakes. We apply the index to modern instrumental catalogue data between 1970 and 2014, and identify six clear candidate zones. We then compare these locations to earthquake epicentre and seismic intensity data for the six largest historical earthquakes. Each candidate zone contains one of the six historical events, and the location of peak intensity is within 5 km or so of the reported epicentre in five of these cases. In one case—the great Ms 8 earthquake of 1679—the peak is closer to the area of strongest shaking (Intensity XI or more) than the reported epicentre. The present-day event rates are similar to those predicted by the modified Omori law but there is no evidence of ongoing decay in event rates. Accordingly, the index is more likely to be picking out the location of persistent weaknesses in the lithosphere. Our results imply zones of high seismic density index could be used in principle to indicate the location of unrecorded historical of palaeoseismic events, in China and

  14. Do I Really Sound Like That? Communicating Earthquake Science Following Significant Earthquakes at the NEIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, G. P.; Earle, P. S.; Benz, H.; Wald, D. J.; Yeck, W. L.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) responds to about 160 magnitude 6.0 and larger earthquakes every year and is regularly inundated with information requests following earthquakes that cause significant impact. These requests often start within minutes after the shaking occurs and come from a wide user base including the general public, media, emergency managers, and government officials. Over the past several years, the NEIC's earthquake response has evolved its communications strategy to meet the changing needs of users and the evolving media landscape. The NEIC produces a cascade of products starting with basic hypocentral parameters and culminating with estimates of fatalities and economic loss. We speed the delivery of content by prepositioning and automatically generating products such as, aftershock plots, regional tectonic summaries, maps of historical seismicity, and event summary posters. Our goal is to have information immediately available so we can quickly address the response needs of a particular event or sequence. This information is distributed to hundreds of thousands of users through social media, email alerts, programmatic data feeds, and webpages. Many of our products are included in event summary posters that can be downloaded and printed for local display. After significant earthquakes, keeping up with direct inquiries and interview requests from TV, radio, and print reports is always challenging. The NEIC works with the USGS Office of Communications and the USGS Science Information Services to organize and respond to these requests. Written executive summaries reports are produced and distributed to USGS personnel and collaborators throughout the country. These reports are updated during the response to keep our message consistent and information up to date. This presentation will focus on communications during NEIC's rapid earthquake response but will also touch on the broader USGS traditional and

  15. Assessment of earthquake effects - contribution from online communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Amico, Sebastiano; Agius, Matthew; Galea, Pauline

    2014-05-01

    The rapid increase of social media and online newspapers in the last years have given the opportunity to make a national investigation on macroseismic effects on the Maltese Islands based on felt earthquake reports. A magnitude 4.1 earthquake struck close to Malta on Sunday 24th April 2011 at 13:02 GMT. The earthquake was preceded and followed by a series of smaller magnitude quakes throughout the day, most of which were felt by the locals on the island. The continuous news media coverage during the day and the extensive sharing of the news item on social media resulted in a strong public response to fill in the 'Did you feel it?' online form on the website of the Seismic Monitoring and Research Unit (SMRU) at the University of Malta (http://seismic.research.um.edu.mt/). The results yield interesting information about the demographics of the island, and the different felt experiences possibly relating to geological settings and diverse structural and age-classified buildings. Based on this case study, the SMRU is in the process of developing a mobile phone application dedicated to share earthquake information to the local community. The application will automatically prompt users to fill in a simplified 'Did you feel it?' report to potentially felt earthquakes. Automatic location using Global Positioning Systems can be incorporated to provide a 'real time' intensity map that can be used by the Civil Protection Department.

  16. Food, water, and fault lines: Remote sensing opportunities for earthquake-response management of agricultural water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, Jenna; Ustin, Susan; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; O'Geen, Anthony Toby

    2016-01-01

    Earthquakes often cause destructive and unpredictable changes that can affect local hydrology (e.g. groundwater elevation or reduction) and thus disrupt land uses and human activities. Prolific agricultural regions overlie seismically active areas, emphasizing the importance to improve our understanding and monitoring of hydrologic and agricultural systems following a seismic event. A thorough data collection is necessary for adequate post-earthquake crop management response; however, the large spatial extent of earthquake's impact makes challenging the collection of robust data sets for identifying locations and magnitude of these impacts. Observing hydrologic responses to earthquakes is not a novel concept, yet there is a lack of methods and tools for assessing earthquake's impacts upon the regional hydrology and agricultural systems. The objective of this paper is to describe how remote sensing imagery, methods and tools allow detecting crop responses and damage incurred after earthquakes because a change in the regional hydrology. Many remote sensing datasets are long archived with extensive coverage and with well-documented methods to assess plant-water relations. We thus connect remote sensing of plant water relations to its utility in agriculture using a post-earthquake agrohydrologic remote sensing (PEARS) framework; specifically in agro-hydrologic relationships associated with recent earthquake events that will lead to improved water management. - Highlights: • Remote sensing to improve agricultural disaster management • Introduce post-earthquake agrohydrologic remote sensing (PEARS) framework • Apply PEARS framework to 2010 Maule Earthquake in Central Chile

  17. Food, water, and fault lines: Remote sensing opportunities for earthquake-response management of agricultural water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez, Jenna, E-mail: jmmartin@ucdavis.edu; Ustin, Susan; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; O' Geen, Anthony Toby

    2016-09-15

    Earthquakes often cause destructive and unpredictable changes that can affect local hydrology (e.g. groundwater elevation or reduction) and thus disrupt land uses and human activities. Prolific agricultural regions overlie seismically active areas, emphasizing the importance to improve our understanding and monitoring of hydrologic and agricultural systems following a seismic event. A thorough data collection is necessary for adequate post-earthquake crop management response; however, the large spatial extent of earthquake's impact makes challenging the collection of robust data sets for identifying locations and magnitude of these impacts. Observing hydrologic responses to earthquakes is not a novel concept, yet there is a lack of methods and tools for assessing earthquake's impacts upon the regional hydrology and agricultural systems. The objective of this paper is to describe how remote sensing imagery, methods and tools allow detecting crop responses and damage incurred after earthquakes because a change in the regional hydrology. Many remote sensing datasets are long archived with extensive coverage and with well-documented methods to assess plant-water relations. We thus connect remote sensing of plant water relations to its utility in agriculture using a post-earthquake agrohydrologic remote sensing (PEARS) framework; specifically in agro-hydrologic relationships associated with recent earthquake events that will lead to improved water management. - Highlights: • Remote sensing to improve agricultural disaster management • Introduce post-earthquake agrohydrologic remote sensing (PEARS) framework • Apply PEARS framework to 2010 Maule Earthquake in Central Chile.

  18. Probabilistic approach to earthquake prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. D'Addezio

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of any earthquake forecast hypothesis requires the application of rigorous statistical methods. It implies a univocal definition of the model characterising the concerned anomaly or precursor, so as it can be objectively recognised in any circumstance and by any observer.A valid forecast hypothesis is expected to maximise successes and minimise false alarms. The probability gain associated to a precursor is also a popular way to estimate the quality of the predictions based on such precursor. Some scientists make use of a statistical approach based on the computation of the likelihood of an observed realisation of seismic events, and on the comparison of the likelihood obtained under different hypotheses. This method can be extended to algorithms that allow the computation of the density distribution of the conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in space, time and magnitude. Whatever method is chosen for building up a new hypothesis, the final assessment of its validity should be carried out by a test on a new and independent set of observations. The implementation of this test could, however, be problematic for seismicity characterised by long-term recurrence intervals. Even using the historical record, that may span time windows extremely variable between a few centuries to a few millennia, we have a low probability to catch more than one or two events on the same fault. Extending the record of earthquakes of the past back in time up to several millennia, paleoseismology represents a great opportunity to study how earthquakes recur through time and thus provide innovative contributions to time-dependent seismic hazard assessment. Sets of paleoseimologically dated earthquakes have been established for some faults in the Mediterranean area: the Irpinia fault in Southern Italy, the Fucino fault in Central Italy, the El Asnam fault in Algeria and the Skinos fault in Central Greece. By using the age of the

  19. The 2016 Central Italy Earthquake: an Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, A.

    2016-12-01

    The M6 central Italy earthquake occurred on the seismic backbone of the Italy, just in the middle of the highest hazard belt. The shock hit suddenly during the night of August 24, when people were asleep; no foreshocks occurred before the main event. The earthquake ruptured from 10 km to the surface, and produced a more than 17,000 aftershocks (Oct. 19) spread on a 40x20 km2 area elongated NW-SE. It is geologically very similar to previous recent events of the Apennines. Both the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake to the south and the 1997 Colfiorito to the north, were characterized by the activation of adjacent fault segments. Despite its magnitude and the well known seismic hazard of the region, the earthquake produced extensive damage and 297 fatalities. The town of Amatrice, that paid the highest toll, was classified in zone 1 (the highest) since 1915, but the buildings in this and other villages revealed highly vulnerable. In contrast, in the town of Norcia, that also experienced strong ground shaking, no collapses occurred, most likely due to the retrofitting carried out after an earthquake in 1979. Soon after the quake, the INGV Crisis Unit convened at night in the Rome headquarters, in order to coordinate the activities. The first field teams reached the epicentral area at 7 am with the portable seismic stations installed to monitor the aftershocks; other teams followed to map surface faults, damage, to measure GPS sites, to install instruments for site response studies, and so on. The INGV Crisis Unit includes the Press office and the INGVterremoti team, in order to manage and coordinate the communication towards the Civil Protection Dept. (DPC), the media and the web. Several tens of reports and updates have been delivered in the first month of the sequence to DPC. Also due to the controversial situation arisen from the L'Aquila earthquake and trials, particular attention was given to the communication: continuous and timely information has been released to

  20. Rupture, waves and earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uenishi, Koji

    2017-01-01

    Normally, an earthquake is considered as a phenomenon of wave energy radiation by rupture (fracture) of solid Earth. However, the physics of dynamic process around seismic sources, which may play a crucial role in the occurrence of earthquakes and generation of strong waves, has not been fully understood yet. Instead, much of former investigation in seismology evaluated earthquake characteristics in terms of kinematics that does not directly treat such dynamic aspects and usually excludes the influence of high-frequency wave components over 1 Hz. There are countless valuable research outcomes obtained through this kinematics-based approach, but "extraordinary" phenomena that are difficult to be explained by this conventional description have been found, for instance, on the occasion of the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake, and more detailed study on rupture and wave dynamics, namely, possible mechanical characteristics of (1) rupture development around seismic sources, (2) earthquake-induced structural failures and (3) wave interaction that connects rupture (1) and failures (2), would be indispensable.

  1. Earthquakes and Earthquake Engineering. LC Science Tracer Bullet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buydos, John F., Comp.

    An earthquake is a shaking of the ground resulting from a disturbance in the earth's interior. Seismology is the (1) study of earthquakes; (2) origin, propagation, and energy of seismic phenomena; (3) prediction of these phenomena; and (4) investigation of the structure of the earth. Earthquake engineering or engineering seismology includes the…

  2. Testing earthquake source inversion methodologies

    KAUST Repository

    Page, Morgan T.; Mai, Paul Martin; Schorlemmer, Danijel

    2011-01-01

    Source Inversion Validation Workshop; Palm Springs, California, 11-12 September 2010; Nowadays earthquake source inversions are routinely performed after large earthquakes and represent a key connection between recorded seismic and geodetic data

  3. Earthquakes; May-June 1982

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    There were four major earthquakes (7.0-7.9) during this reporting period: two struck in Mexico, one in El Salvador, and one in teh Kuril Islands. Mexico, El Salvador, and China experienced fatalities from earthquakes.

  4. The evaluation of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic source regions in and around Ağrı

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı/Turkey (Turkey); Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr [Karadeniz Technical University, Department of Geophysics, Trabzon/Turkey (Turkey)

    2016-04-18

    The aim of this study; were determined of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic sources of the Ağrı and vicinity. A homogeneous earthquake catalog has been examined for 1900-2015 (the instrumental period) with 456 earthquake data for Ağrı and vicinity. Catalog; Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (Burke), National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC), TUBITAK, TURKNET the International Seismological Center (ISC), Seismological Research Institute (IRIS) has been created using different catalogs like. Ağrı and vicinity are divided into 7 different seismic source regions with epicenter distribution of formed earthquakes in the instrumental period, focal mechanism solutions, and existing tectonic structures. In the study, the average magnitude value are calculated according to the specified magnitude ranges for 7 different seismic source region. According to the estimated calculations for 7 different seismic source regions, the biggest difference corresponding with the classes of determined magnitudes between observed and expected cumulative probabilities are determined. The recurrence period and earthquake occurrence number per year are estimated of occurring earthquakes in the Ağrı and vicinity. As a result, 7 different seismic source regions are determined occurrence probabilities of an earthquake 3.2 magnitude, Region 1 was greater than 6.7 magnitude, Region 2 was greater than than 4.7 magnitude, Region 3 was greater than 5.2 magnitude, Region 4 was greater than 6.2 magnitude, Region 5 was greater than 5.7 magnitude, Region 6 was greater than 7.2 magnitude, Region 7 was greater than 6.2 magnitude. The highest observed magnitude 7 different seismic source regions of Ağrı and vicinity are estimated 7 magnitude in Region 6. Region 6 are determined according to determining magnitudes, occurrence years of earthquakes in the future years, respectively, 7.2 magnitude was in 158

  5. Anomalous variations of lithosphere magnetic field before several earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Z.; Chen, B.

    2015-12-01

    Based on the geomagnetic vector data measured each year since 2011 at more than 500 sites with a mean spatial interval of ~70km.we observed anomalous variations of lithospheric magnetic field before and after over 15 earthquakes having magnitude > 5. We find that the field in near proximity (about 50km) to the epicenter of large earthquakes shows high spatial and temporal gradients before the earthquake. Due to the low frequency of repeat measurements it is unclear when these variations occurred and how do them evolve. We point out anomalous magnetic filed using some circles with radius of 50km usually in June of each year, and then we would check whether quake will locat in our circles during one year after that time (June to next June). Now we caught 10 earthquakes of 15 main shocks having magnitude > 5, most of them located at less than10km away from our circles and some of them were in our circles. Most results show that the variations of lithosphere magnetic filed at the epicenter are different with surrending backgroud usually. When we figure out horizontal variations (vector) of lithosphere magnetic field and epicenter during one year after each June, we found half of them show that the earthquakes will locat at "the inlands in a flowing river", that means earthquakes may occur at "quiet"regions while the backgroud show character as"flow" as liquid. When we compared with GPS results, it appears that these variations of lithospere magnetic field may also correlate with displacement of earth's surface. However we do not compared with GPS results for each earthquake, we are not clear whether these anomalous variations of lithospere magnetic field may also correlate with anomalous displacement of earth's surface. Future work will include developing an automated method for identifying this type of anomalous field behavior and trying to short repeat measurement period to 6 month to try to find when these variations occur.

  6. A moment in time: emergency nurses and the Canterbury earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, S; Ardagh, M; Grainger, P; Robinson, V

    2013-06-01

    To outline the impact of the Canterbury, New Zealand (NZ) earthquakes on Christchurch Hospital, and the experiences of emergency nurses during this time. NZ has experienced earthquakes and aftershocks centred in the Canterbury region of the South Island. The location of these, around and within the major city of Christchurch, was unexpected and associated with previously unknown fault lines. While the highest magnitude quake occurred in September 2010, registering 7.1 on the Richter scale, it was the magnitude 6.3 event on 22 February 2011 which was associated with the greatest injury burden and loss of life. Staff working in the only emergency department in the city were faced with an external emergency while also being directly affected as part of the disaster. SOURCES OF EVIDENCE: This paper developed following interviews with nurses who worked during this period, and draws on literature related to healthcare responses to earthquakes and natural disasters. The establishment of an injury database allowed for an accurate picture to emerge of the injury burden, and each of the authors was present and worked in a clinical capacity during the earthquake. Nurses played a significant role in the response to the earthquakes and its aftermath. However, little is known regarding the impact of this, either in personal or professional terms. This paper presents an overview of the earthquakes and experiences of nurses working during this time, identifying a range of issues that will benefit from further exploration and research. It seeks to provide a sense of the experiences and the potential meanings that were derived from being part of this 'moment in time'. Examples of innovations in practice emerged during the earthquake response and a number of recommendations for nursing practice are identified. © 2013 The Authors. International Nursing Review © 2013 International Council of Nurses.

  7. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  8. Discounting Behaviour and the Magnitude Effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel

    2013-01-01

    We evaluate the claim that individuals exhibit a magnitude effect in their discounting behaviour, where higher discount rates are inferred from choices made with lower principals, all else being equal. If the magnitude effect is quantitatively significant, it is not appropriate to use one discount...... rate that is independent of the scale of the project for cost–benefit analysis and capital budgeting. Using data from a field experiment in Denmark, we find statistically significant evidence of a magnitude effect that is much smaller than is claimed. This evidence surfaces only if one controls...

  9. Sensing the earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bichisao, Marta; Stallone, Angela

    2017-04-01

    Making science visual plays a crucial role in the process of building knowledge. In this view, art can considerably facilitate the representation of the scientific content, by offering a different perspective on how a specific problem could be approached. Here we explore the possibility of presenting the earthquake process through visual dance. From a choreographer's point of view, the focus is always on the dynamic relationships between moving objects. The observed spatial patterns (coincidences, repetitions, double and rhythmic configurations) suggest how objects organize themselves in the environment and what are the principles underlying that organization. The identified set of rules is then implemented as a basis for the creation of a complex rhythmic and visual dance system. Recently, scientists have turned seismic waves into sound and animations, introducing the possibility of "feeling" the earthquakes. We try to implement these results into a choreographic model with the aim to convert earthquake sound to a visual dance system, which could return a transmedia representation of the earthquake process. In particular, we focus on a possible method to translate and transfer the metric language of seismic sound and animations into body language. The objective is to involve the audience into a multisensory exploration of the earthquake phenomenon, through the stimulation of the hearing, eyesight and perception of the movements (neuromotor system). In essence, the main goal of this work is to develop a method for a simultaneous visual and auditory representation of a seismic event by means of a structured choreographic model. This artistic representation could provide an original entryway into the physics of earthquakes.

  10. Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS model for short-term clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiancang Zhuang

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, which is used for describing the features of short-term clustering of earthquake occurrence, this paper presents some theories and techniques related to evaluating the probability distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time window, where the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitude distribution cannot be directly applied. It is seen that the distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time volume is determined in the longterm by the background seismicity rate and the magnitude distribution of the largest events in each earthquake cluster. The techniques introduced were applied to the seismicity in the Japan region in the period from 1926 to 2009. It was found that the regions most likely to have big earthquakes are along the Tohoku (northeastern Japan Arc and the Kuril Arc, both with much higher probabilities than the offshore Nankai and Tokai regions.

  11. Earthquake Risk Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Tsuruoka, H.

    2010-12-01

    Seismic disaster risk mitigation in urban areas constitutes a challenge through collaboration of scientific, engineering, and social-science fields. Examples of collaborative efforts include research on detailed plate structure with identification of all significant faults, developing dense seismic networks; strong ground motion prediction, which uses information on near-surface seismic site effects and fault models; earthquake resistant and proof structures; and cross-discipline infrastructure for effective risk mitigation just after catastrophic events. Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (magnitude M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that the M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. This earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2007-2011) was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. The results that are obtained in the respective fields will be integrated until project termination to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In this talk, we give an outline of our project as an example of collaborative research on earthquake risk mitigation. Discussion is extended to our effort in progress and

  12. Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Muhammad

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0 that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

  13. Application of τc*Pd for identifying damaging earthquakes for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, P. L.; Lin, T. L.; Wu, Y. M.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) is an effective approach to mitigate earthquake damage. In this study, we used the seismic record by the Kiban Kyoshin network (KiK-net), because it has dense station coverage and co-located borehole strong-motion seismometers along with the free-surface strong-motion seismometers. We used inland earthquakes with moment magnitude (Mw) from 5.0 to 7.3 between 1998 and 2012. We choose 135 events and 10950 strong ground accelerograms recorded by the 696 strong ground accelerographs. Both the free-surface and the borehole data are used to calculate τc and Pd, respectively. The results show that τc*Pd has a good correlation with PGV and is a robust parameter for assessing the potential of damaging earthquake. We propose the value of τc*Pd determined from seconds after the arrival of P wave could be a threshold for the on-site type of EEW.

  14. Transmission of low-magnitude seismic excitation into Hanford Site structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiner, E.O.

    1989-01-01

    Several Hanford Site buildings were analyzed using simplified models to gain insight as to what extent the free field motion of a small-magnitude earthquake is transmitted into building structures as a result of soil-structure interaction effects. Building selection included the Plutonium Processing Plant, B-Plant and the Fast Flux Test Facility containment which represented a variety of stiffnesses, weights, and embedments. An artificial time history for the free field has a peak response at 13 Hz. This motion represents a median for magnitude 4 and 4.5 earthquakes, respectively. Floor response spectra were compared with results from analyses to design basis ground motions using the same structural models. Considerable attenuation of the small-magnitude free-field motion was found in the case of stiff, deeply embedded structures. This attenuation is attributed to kinematic interaction in addition to attenuation with depth in the free field. Even with such attenuation, there are exceptions where small magnitude responses exceed design basis responses. They are generally associated with 10 to 20 Hz modes with vertical motion

  15. Preliminary Magnitude of Completeness Quantification of Improved BMKG Catalog (2008-2016) in Indonesian Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diantari, H. C.; Suryanto, W.; Anggraini, A.; Irnaka, T. M.; Susilanto, P.; Ngadmanto, D.

    2018-03-01

    We present a magnitude of completeness (Mc) quantification based on BMKG improved earthquake catalog which generated from Ina-TEWS seismograph network. The Mc quantification can help us determine the lowest magnitude which can be recorded perfectly as a function of space and time. We use the BMKG improved earthquake catalog from 2008 to 2016 which has been converted to moment magnitude (Mw) and declustered. The value of Mc is computed by determining the initial point of deviation patterns in Frequency Magnitude Distribution (FMD) chart following the Gutenberg-Richter equations. In the next step, we calculate the temporal variation of Mc and b-value using maximum likelihood method annually. We found that the Mc value is decreasing and produced a varying b-value. It indicates that the development of seismograph network from 2008 to 2016 can affect the value of Mc although it is not significant. We analyze temporal variation of Mc value, and correlate it with the spatial distribution of seismograph in Indonesia. The spatial distribution of seismograph installation shows that the western part of Indonesia has more dense seismograph compared to the eastern region. However, the eastern part of Indonesia has a high level of seismicity compared to the western region. Based upon the results, additional seismograph installation in the eastern part of Indonesia should be taken into consideration.

  16. Turkish Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, Canan Lacin

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

  17. Earthquakes, May-June 1991

    Science.gov (United States)

    Person, W.J.

    1992-01-01

    One major earthquake occurred during this reporting period. This was a magntidue 7.1 in Indonesia (Minahassa Peninsula) on June 20. Earthquake-related deaths were reported in the Western Caucasus (Georgia, USSR) on May 3 and June 15. One earthquake-related death was also reported El Salvador on June 21. 

  18. Organizational changes at Earthquakes & Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, David W.

    1992-01-01

    Primary responsibility for the preparation of Earthquakes & Volcanoes within the Geological Survey has shifted from the Office of Scientific Publications to the Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes, and Engineering (OEVE). As a consequence of this reorganization, Henry Spall has stepepd down as Science Editor for Earthquakes & Volcanoes(E&V).

  19. Self-exciting point process in modeling earthquake occurrences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratiwi, H.; Slamet, I.; Respatiwulan; Saputro, D. R. S.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present a procedure for modeling earthquake based on spatial-temporal point process. The magnitude distribution is expressed as truncated exponential and the event frequency is modeled with a spatial-temporal point process that is characterized uniquely by its associated conditional intensity process. The earthquakes can be regarded as point patterns that have a temporal clustering feature so we use self-exciting point process for modeling the conditional intensity function. The choice of main shocks is conducted via window algorithm by Gardner and Knopoff and the model can be fitted by maximum likelihood method for three random variables. (paper)

  20. [Earthquakes in El Salvador].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Ville de Goyet, C

    2001-02-01

    The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has 25 years of experience dealing with major natural disasters. This piece provides a preliminary review of the events taking place in the weeks following the major earthquakes in El Salvador on 13 January and 13 February 2001. It also describes the lessons that have been learned over the last 25 years and the impact that the El Salvador earthquakes and other disasters have had on the health of the affected populations. Topics covered include mass-casualties management, communicable diseases, water supply, managing donations and international assistance, damages to the health-facilities infrastructure, mental health, and PAHO's role in disasters.

  1. Aftershock Characteristics as a Means of Discriminating Explosions from Earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ford, S R; Walter, W R

    2009-05-20

    The behavior of aftershock sequences around the Nevada Test Site in the southern Great Basin is characterized as a potential discriminant between explosions and earthquakes. The aftershock model designed by Reasenberg and Jones (1989, 1994) allows for a probabilistic statement of earthquake-like aftershock behavior at any time after the mainshock. We use this model to define two types of aftershock discriminants. The first defines M{sub X}, or the minimum magnitude of an aftershock expected within a given duration after the mainshock with probability X. Of the 67 earthquakes with M > 4 in the study region, 63 of them produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 99} within the first seven days after a mainshock. This is contrasted with only six of 93 explosions with M > 4 that produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 99} for the same period. If the aftershock magnitude threshold is lowered and the M{sub 90} criteria is used, then no explosions produce an aftershock greater than M{sub 90} for durations that end more than 17 days after the mainshock. The other discriminant defines N{sub X}, or the minimum cumulative number of aftershocks expected for given time after the mainshock with probability X. Similar to the aftershock magnitude discriminant, five earthquakes do not produce more aftershocks than N{sub 99} within 7 days after the mainshock. However, within the same period all but one explosion produce less aftershocks then N{sub 99}. One explosion is added if the duration is shortened to two days after than mainshock. The cumulative number aftershock discriminant is more reliable, especially at short durations, but requires a low magnitude of completeness for the given earthquake catalog. These results at NTS are quite promising and should be evaluated at other nuclear test sites to understand the effects of differences in the geologic setting and nuclear testing practices on its performance.

  2. Relocation and Seismogenic Structure of the 1998 Zhangbei-Shangyi Earthquake Sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.

    2002-05-01

    An earthquake of magnitude 6.2 occurred in the Zhangbei-Shangyi region in the northern China on January 10, 1998. The earthquake was about 180km to the northwest of the Beijing City and was felt at Beijing. This earthquake is the largest event since the 1976 great Tangshan earthquake of magnitude 7.8 in the northern China. Historically seismicity in the Zhangbei-Shangyi region was very low. In the epicentral area no active fault constituting the seismogenic geological features capable of generating moderate earthquakes like this earthquake has been found before the earthquake. Nor surface faulting has been observed after the earthquake. Field geological investigation after the earthquake found two conjugate surface features trending NNE-NE and NNW-WNW. Because of the geometry of the seismic network the hypocentral distribution of the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake sequence given by routine location exhibited no any preferable orientation feature. In this study the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake and its aftershocks with magnitude equal or lager than 3.0 were relocated using both the master event relative relocation algorithm and the double-difference earthquake relocation algorithm (Waldhauser, 2000). Both algorithms gave consistent results within accuracy limits. The epicenter of the main shock was 41.15­aN and 114.46­aE, which was located 4km apart from the macro-epicenter of this event. The focal depth of the main shock was 15 km. The epicenters of aftershocks of this earthquake sequence distribute in a nearly vertical plane and its vicinity with orientation N20­aE. The results of relocation for the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake sequence clearly indicate that the seismogenic structure of this event is a N20­aE striking fault with right-lateral reverse slip, and that the occurrence of the Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake is tectonically driven by the horizontal and oriented ENE compression stress, same as that of the stress field in northern China.

  3. Gas injection may have triggered earthquakes in the Cogdell oil field, Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Wei; Frohlich, Cliff

    2013-11-19

    Between 1957 and 1982, water flooding was conducted to improve petroleum production in the Cogdell oil field north of Snyder, TX, and a contemporary analysis concluded this induced earthquakes that occurred between 1975 and 1982. The National Earthquake Information Center detected no further activity between 1983 and 2005, but between 2006 and 2011 reported 18 earthquakes having magnitudes 3 and greater. To investigate these earthquakes, we analyzed data recorded by six temporary seismograph stations deployed by the USArray program, and identified 93 well-recorded earthquakes occurring between March 2009 and December 2010. Relocation with a double-difference method shows that most earthquakes occurred within several northeast-southwest-trending linear clusters, with trends corresponding to nodal planes of regional focal mechanisms, possibly indicating the presence of previously unidentified faults. We have evaluated data concerning injection and extraction of oil, water, and gas in the Cogdell field. Water injection cannot explain the 2006-2011 earthquakes, especially as net volumes (injection minus extraction) are significantly less than in the 1957-1982 period. However, since 2004 significant volumes of gases including supercritical CO2 have been injected into the Cogdell field. The timing of gas injection suggests it may have contributed to triggering the recent seismic activity. If so, this represents an instance where gas injection has triggered earthquakes having magnitudes 3 and larger. Further modeling studies may help evaluate recent assertions suggesting significant risks accompany large-scale carbon capture and storage as a strategy for managing climate change.

  4. On the Diurnal Periodicity of Representative Earthquakes in Greece: Comparison of Data from Different Observation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desherevskii, A. V.; Sidorin, A. Ya.

    2017-12-01

    Due to the initiation of the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network (HUSN) in late 2007, the quality of observation significantly improved by 2011. For example, the representative magnitude level considerably has decreased and the number of annually recorded events has increased. The new observational system highly expanded the possibilities for studying regularities in seismicity. In view of this, the authors revisited their studies of the diurnal periodicity of representative earthquakes in Greece that was revealed earlier in the earthquake catalog before 2011. We use 18 samples of earthquakes of different magnitudes taken from the catalog of Greek earthquakes from 2011 to June 2016 to derive a series of the number of earthquakes for each of them and calculate its average diurnal course. To increase the reliability of the results, we compared the data for two regions. With a high degree of statistical significance, we have obtained that no diurnal periodicity can be found for strongly representative earthquakes. This finding differs from the estimates obtained earlier from an analysis of the catalog of earthquakes at the same area for 1995-2004 and 2005-2010, i.e., before the initiation of the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network. The new results are consistent with the hypothesis of noise discrimination (observational selection) explaining the cause of the diurnal variation of earthquakes with different sensitivity of the seismic network in daytime and nighttime periods.

  5. Modeling Seismic Cycles of Great Megathrust Earthquakes Across the Scales With Focus at Postseismic Phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, Stephan V.; Muldashev, Iskander A.

    2017-12-01

    Subduction is substantially multiscale process where the stresses are built by long-term tectonic motions, modified by sudden jerky deformations during earthquakes, and then restored by following multiple relaxation processes. Here we develop a cross-scale thermomechanical model aimed to simulate the subduction process from 1 min to million years' time scale. The model employs elasticity, nonlinear transient viscous rheology, and rate-and-state friction. It generates spontaneous earthquake sequences and by using an adaptive time step algorithm, recreates the deformation process as observed naturally during the seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. The model predicts that viscosity in the mantle wedge drops by more than three orders of magnitude during the great earthquake with a magnitude above 9. As a result, the surface velocities just an hour or day after the earthquake are controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the several hundred km of mantle landward of the trench and not by the afterslip localized at the fault as is currently believed. Our model replicates centuries-long seismic cycles exhibited by the greatest earthquakes and is consistent with the postseismic surface displacements recorded after the Great Tohoku Earthquake. We demonstrate that there is no contradiction between extremely low mechanical coupling at the subduction megathrust in South Chile inferred from long-term geodynamic models and appearance of the largest earthquakes, like the Great Chile 1960 Earthquake.

  6. Fault parameters and macroseismic observations of the May 10, 1997 Ardekul-Ghaen earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amini, H.; Zare, M.; Ansari, A.

    2018-01-01

    The Ardekul (Zirkuh) earthquake (May 10, 1997) is the largest recent earthquake that occurred in the Ardekul-Ghaen region of Eastern Iran. The greatest destruction was concentrated around Ardekul, Haji-Abad, Esfargh, Pishbar, Bashiran, Abiz-Qadim, and Fakhr-Abad (completely destroyed). The total surface fault rupture was about 125 km with the longest un-interrupted segment in the south of the region. The maximum horizontal and vertical displacements were reported in Korizan and Bohn-Abad with about 210 and 70 cm, respectively; moreover, other building damages and environmental effects were also reported for this earthquake. In this study, the intensity value XI on the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS) and Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI) scale was selected for this earthquake according to the maximum effects on macroseismic data points affected by this earthquake. Then, according to its macroseismic data points of this earthquake and Boxer code, some macroseismic parameters including magnitude, location, source dimension, and orientation of this earthquake were also estimated at 7.3, 33.52° N-59.99° E, 75 km long and 21 km wide, and 152°, respectively. As the estimated macroseismic parameters are consistent with the instrumental ones (Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) location and magnitude equal 33.58° N-60.02° E, and 7.2, respectively), this method and dataset are suggested not only for other instrumental earthquakes, but also for historical events.

  7. Seismic-resistant design of nuclear power stations in Japan, earthquake country. Lessons learned from Chuetsu-oki earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irikura, Kojiro

    2008-01-01

    The new assessment (back-check) of earthquake-proof safety was being conducted at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plants, Tokyo Electric Co. in response to a request based on the guideline for reactor evaluation for seismic-resistant design code, revised in 2006, when the 2007 Chuetsu-oki Earthquake occurred and brought about an unexpectedly huge tremor in this area, although the magnitude of the earthquake was only 6.8 but the intensity of earthquake motion exceeded 2.5-fold more than supposed. This paper introduces how and why the guideline for seismic-resistant design of nuclear facilities was revised in 2006, the outline of the Chuetsu-oki Earthquake, and preliminary findings and lessons learned from the Earthquake. The paper specifically discusses on (1) how we may specify in advance geologic active faults as has been overlooked this time, (2) how we can make adequate models for seismic origin from which we can extract its characteristics, and (3) how the estimation of strong ground motion simulation may be possible for ground vibration level of a possibly overlooked fault. (S. Ohno)

  8. Determination of the Meteor Limiting Magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingery, A.; Blaauw, R.; Cooke, W. J.

    2016-01-01

    The limiting meteor magnitude of a meteor camera system will depend on the camera hardware and software, sky conditions, and the location of the meteor radiant. Some of these factors are constants for a given meteor camera system, but many change between meteor shower or sporadic source and on both long and short timescales. Since the limiting meteor magnitude ultimately gets used to calculate the limiting meteor mass for a given data set, it is important to have an understanding of these factors and to monitor how they change throughout the night, as a 0.5 magnitude uncertainty in limiting magnitude translates to a uncertainty in limiting mass by a factor of two.

  9. The Magnitude of Atherogenic Dyslipidaemia among Geriatric ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Magnitude of Atherogenic Dyslipidaemia among Geriatric Nigerians with ... June 2011 on 122 consecutive geriatric patients with systemic hypertension ... of dyslipidaemia and a marker of dyslipidaemic cardiometabolic risk among them.

  10. Measuring radon source magnitude in residential buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazaroff, W.W.; Boegel, M.L.; Nero, A.V.

    1981-08-01

    A description is given of procedures used in residences for rapid grab-sample and time-dependent measurements of the air-exchange rate and radon concentration. The radon source magnitude is calculated from the results of simultaneous measurements of these parameters. Grab-sample measurements in three survey groups comprising 101 US houses showed the radon source magnitude to vary approximately log-normally with a geometric mean of 0.37 and a range of 0.01 to 6.0 pCi 1 -1 h -1 . Successive measurements in six houses in the northeastern United States showed considerable variability in source magnitude within a given house. In two of these houses the source magnitude showed a strong correlation with the air-exchange rate, suggesting that soil gas influx can be an important transport process for indoor radon

  11. How citizen seismology is transforming rapid public earthquake information: the example of LastQuake smartphone application and Twitter QuakeBot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Etivant, C.; Roussel, F.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.

    2014-12-01

    Smartphone applications have swiftly become one of the most popular tools for rapid reception of earthquake information for the public. Wherever someone's own location is, they can be automatically informed when an earthquake has struck just by setting a magnitude threshold and an area of interest. No need to browse the internet: the information reaches you automatically and instantaneously! One question remains: are the provided earthquake notifications always relevant for the public? A while after damaging earthquakes many eyewitnesses scrap the application they installed just after the mainshock. Why? Because either the magnitude threshold is set too high and many felt earthquakes are missed, or it is set too low and the majority of the notifications are related to unfelt earthquakes thereby only increasing anxiety among the population at each new update. Felt and damaging earthquakes are the ones of societal importance even when of small magnitude. LastQuake app and Twitter feed (QuakeBot) focuses on these earthquakes that matter for the public by collating different information threads covering tsunamigenic, damaging and felt earthquakes. Non-seismic detections and macroseismic questionnaires collected online are combined to identify felt earthquakes regardless their magnitude. Non seismic detections include Twitter earthquake detections, developed by the USGS, where the number of tweets containing the keyword "earthquake" is monitored in real time and flashsourcing, developed by the EMSC, which detect traffic surges on its rapid earthquake information website caused by the natural convergence of eyewitnesses who rush to the Internet to investigate the cause of the shaking that they have just felt. We will present the identification process of the felt earthquakes, the smartphone application and the 27 automatically generated tweets and how, by providing better public services, we collect more data from citizens.

  12. A contrast study of the traumatic condition between the wounded in 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake and 4.25 Nepal earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Sheng; Hu, Yonghe; Zhang, Zhongkui; Wang, Ting

    2015-01-01

    5.12 Wenchuan earthquake and 4.25 Nepal earthquake are of the similar magnitude, but the climate and geographic environment are totally different. Our team carried out medical rescue in both disasters, so we would like to compare the different traumatic conditions of the wounded in two earthquakes. The clinical data of the wounded respectively in 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake and 4.25 Nepal earthquake rescued by Chengdu Military General Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Then a contrast study between the wounded was conducted in terms of age, sex, injury mechanisms, traumatic conditions, complications and prognosis. Three days after 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake, 465 cases of the wounded were hospitalized in Chengdu Military General Hospital, including 245 males (52.7%) and 220 females (47.3%) with the average age of (47.6±22.7) years. Our team carried out humanitarian relief in Katmandu after 4.25 Nepal earthquake. Three days after this disaster, 71 cases were treated in our field hospital, including 37 males (52.1%) and 34 females (47.9%) with the mean age of (44.8±22.9) years. There was no obvious difference in sex and mean age between two groups, but the age distribution was a little different: there were more wounded people at the age over 60 years in 4.25 Nepal earthquake (pearthquake (pearthquake had a higher rate of bruise injury and crush injury (pearthquake had a higher rate of falling injury (pearthquake, 4.25 Nepal earthquake has a much higher incidence of limb fractures (pearthquakes of the similar magnitude can cause different injury mechanisms, traumatic conditions and complications in the wounded under different climate and geographic environment.When an earthquake occurs in a poor traffic area of high altitude and large temperature difference, early medical rescue, injury control and wounded evacuation as well as sufficient warmth retention and food supply are of vital significance.

  13. Earthquake Culture: A Significant Element in Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment and Earthquake Disaster Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrion, Mihaela

    2018-01-01

    This book chapter brings to attention the dramatic impact of large earthquake disasters on local communities and society and highlights the necessity of building and enhancing the earthquake culture. Iran was considered as a research case study and fifteen large earthquake disasters in Iran were investigated and analyzed over more than a century-time period. It was found that the earthquake culture in Iran was and is still conditioned by many factors or parameters which are not integrated and...

  14. Earthquake Complex Network Analysis Before and After the Mw 8.2 Earthquake in Iquique, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasten, D.

    2017-12-01

    The earthquake complex networks have shown that they are abble to find specific features in seismic data set. In space, this networkshave shown a scale-free behavior for the probability distribution of connectivity, in directed networks and theyhave shown a small-world behavior, for the undirected networks.In this work, we present an earthquake complex network analysis for the large earthquake Mw 8.2 in the north ofChile (near to Iquique) in April, 2014. An earthquake complex network is made dividing the three dimensional space intocubic cells, if one of this cells contain an hypocenter, we name this cell like a node. The connections between nodes aregenerated in time. We follow the time sequence of seismic events and we are making the connections betweennodes. Now, we have two different networks: a directed and an undirected network. Thedirected network takes in consideration the time-direction of the connections, that is very important for the connectivityof the network: we are considering the connectivity, ki of the i-th node, like the number of connections going out ofthe node i plus the self-connections (if two seismic events occurred successive in time in the same cubic cell, we havea self-connection). The undirected network is made removing the direction of the connections and the self-connectionsfrom the directed network. For undirected networks, we are considering only if two nodes are or not connected.We have built a directed complex network and an undirected complex network, before and after the large earthquake in Iquique. We have used magnitudes greater than Mw = 1.0 and Mw = 3.0. We found that this method can recognize the influence of thissmall seismic events in the behavior of the network and we found that the size of the cell used to build the network isanother important factor to recognize the influence of the large earthquake in this complex system. This method alsoshows a difference in the values of the critical exponent γ (for the probability

  15. Foreshock occurrence rates before large earthquakes worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reasenberg, P.A.

    1999-01-01

    Global rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured, using earthquakes listed in the Harvard CMT catalog for the period 1978-1996. These rates are similar to rates ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering, which is based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California, and were found to exceed the California model by a factor of approximately 2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, registered a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, measured a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have revealed low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggest the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich.

  16. Present-day stress magnitude at depth from leak-off tests in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariucci, M. T.; Montone, P.; Pierdominici, S.

    2012-04-01

    We present new results from the analysis of leak-off tests, performed in deep oil wells in Italy, to characterize the present-day stress magnitude and regime in the crust. In the last years we have collected a large number of data (more than 500) from different stress indicators, mainly borehole breakouts, earthquake focal mechanisms and fault data, which provided information on the present-day stress orientations. In some areas the tectonic regime has been inferred either from fault plane solutions of M≥4 earthquakes or from stress inversions of smaller earthquakes. Where seismicity lacks, the regime is not well constrained and little or no information on the magnitude of the crustal stresses is available. In order to improve our knowledge in stress regime and its magnitude in Italy, in this work we use the leak-off test technique. Each test is performed at the bottom of an open hole by sealing off a section and then slowly pressurizing with a fluid until hydraulic tensile fractures develop. The minimum horizontal stress is inferred by leak-off pressure record, the vertical stress is computed by rock density data and the maximum horizontal stress is estimated applying a specific formula from the literature. Thanks to ENI S.p.A. (Italian oil company), that kindly provided new well data, we have been able to perform a critical review of our preliminary calculations and to enhance our previous results concerning stress magnitudes. Totally, we have analyzed 192 leak-off tests at depth between 200 and 5400m (average 1800m). In particular, wells are located along the Italian peninsula and in Sicily: most of them are in the Po Plain and along the Apenninic foredeep; few are in southern Apenninic belt and a few tens are in Sicily. After an accurate selection of the most robust results, we better characterize the Italian stress regime at depth.