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Sample records for earthquake magnitude

  1. Extreme value distribution of earthquake magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Jun Gan; Tung, C. C.

    1983-07-01

    Probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude is first derived for an unspecified probability distribution of earthquake magnitude. A model for energy release of large earthquakes, similar to that of Adler-Lomnitz and Lomnitz, is introduced from which the probability distribution of earthquake magnitude is obtained. An extensive set of world data for shallow earthquakes, covering the period from 1904 to 1980, is used to determine the parameters of the probability distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude. Because of the special form of probability distribution of earthquake magnitude, a simple iterative scheme is devised to facilitate the estimation of these parameters by the method of least-squares. The agreement between the empirical and derived probability distributions of maximum earthquake magnitude is excellent.

  2. Strong motion duration and earthquake magnitude relationships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salmon, M.W.; Short, S.A. [EQE International, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Kennedy, R.P. [RPK Structural Mechanics Consulting, Yorba Linda, CA (United States)

    1992-06-01

    Earthquake duration is the total time of ground shaking from the arrival of seismic waves until the return to ambient conditions. Much of this time is at relatively low shaking levels which have little effect on seismic structural response and on earthquake damage potential. As a result, a parameter termed ``strong motion duration`` has been defined by a number of investigators to be used for the purpose of evaluating seismic response and assessing the potential for structural damage due to earthquakes. This report presents methods for determining strong motion duration and a time history envelope function appropriate for various evaluation purposes, for earthquake magnitude and distance, and for site soil properties. There are numerous definitions of strong motion duration. For most of these definitions, empirical studies have been completed which relate duration to earthquake magnitude and distance and to site soil properties. Each of these definitions recognizes that only the portion of an earthquake record which has sufficiently high acceleration amplitude, energy content, or some other parameters significantly affects seismic response. Studies have been performed which indicate that the portion of an earthquake record in which the power (average rate of energy input) is maximum correlates most closely with potential damage to stiff nuclear power plant structures. Hence, this report will concentrate on energy based strong motion duration definitions.

  3. Maximum magnitude earthquakes induced by fluid injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarr, Arthur F.

    2014-01-01

    Analysis of numerous case histories of earthquake sequences induced by fluid injection at depth reveals that the maximum magnitude appears to be limited according to the total volume of fluid injected. Similarly, the maximum seismic moment seems to have an upper bound proportional to the total volume of injected fluid. Activities involving fluid injection include (1) hydraulic fracturing of shale formations or coal seams to extract gas and oil, (2) disposal of wastewater from these gas and oil activities by injection into deep aquifers, and (3) the development of enhanced geothermal systems by injecting water into hot, low-permeability rock. Of these three operations, wastewater disposal is observed to be associated with the largest earthquakes, with maximum magnitudes sometimes exceeding 5. To estimate the maximum earthquake that could be induced by a given fluid injection project, the rock mass is assumed to be fully saturated, brittle, to respond to injection with a sequence of earthquakes localized to the region weakened by the pore pressure increase of the injection operation and to have a Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution with a b value of 1. If these assumptions correctly describe the circumstances of the largest earthquake, then the maximum seismic moment is limited to the volume of injected liquid times the modulus of rigidity. Observations from the available case histories of earthquakes induced by fluid injection are consistent with this bound on seismic moment. In view of the uncertainties in this analysis, however, this should not be regarded as an absolute physical limit.

  4. Maximum magnitude earthquakes induced by fluid injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarr, A.

    2014-02-01

    Analysis of numerous case histories of earthquake sequences induced by fluid injection at depth reveals that the maximum magnitude appears to be limited according to the total volume of fluid injected. Similarly, the maximum seismic moment seems to have an upper bound proportional to the total volume of injected fluid. Activities involving fluid injection include (1) hydraulic fracturing of shale formations or coal seams to extract gas and oil, (2) disposal of wastewater from these gas and oil activities by injection into deep aquifers, and (3) the development of enhanced geothermal systems by injecting water into hot, low-permeability rock. Of these three operations, wastewater disposal is observed to be associated with the largest earthquakes, with maximum magnitudes sometimes exceeding 5. To estimate the maximum earthquake that could be induced by a given fluid injection project, the rock mass is assumed to be fully saturated, brittle, to respond to injection with a sequence of earthquakes localized to the region weakened by the pore pressure increase of the injection operation and to have a Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution with a b value of 1. If these assumptions correctly describe the circumstances of the largest earthquake, then the maximum seismic moment is limited to the volume of injected liquid times the modulus of rigidity. Observations from the available case histories of earthquakes induced by fluid injection are consistent with this bound on seismic moment. In view of the uncertainties in this analysis, however, this should not be regarded as an absolute physical limit.

  5. EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED DEFORMATION STRUCTURES AND RELATED TO EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savaş TOPAL

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake-induced deformation structures which are called seismites may helpful to clasify the paleoseismic history of a location and to estimate the magnitudes of the potention earthquakes in the future. In this paper, seismites were investigated according to the types formed in deep and shallow lake sediments. Seismites are observed forms of sand dikes, introduced and fractured gravels and pillow structures in shallow lakes and pseudonodules, mushroom-like silts protruding laminites, mixed layers, disturbed varved lamination and loop bedding in deep lake sediments. Earthquake-induced deformation structures, by benefiting from previous studies, were ordered according to their formations and earthquake magnitudes. In this order, the lowest eartquake's record is loop bedding and the highest one is introduced and fractured gravels in lacustrine deposits.

  6. Local magnitude scale for earthquakes in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kılıç, T.; Ottemöller, L.; Havskov, J.; Yanık, K.; Kılıçarslan, Ö.; Alver, F.; Özyazıcıoğlu, M.

    2017-01-01

    Based on the earthquake event data accumulated by the Turkish National Seismic Network between 2007 and 2013, the local magnitude (Richter, Ml) scale is calibrated for Turkey and the close neighborhood. A total of 137 earthquakes (Mw > 3.5) are used for the Ml inversion for the whole country. Three Ml scales, whole country, East, and West Turkey, are developed, and the scales also include the station correction terms. Since the scales for the two parts of the country are very similar, it is concluded that a single Ml scale is suitable for the whole country. Available data indicate the new scale to suffer from saturation beyond magnitude 6.5. For this data set, the horizontal amplitudes are on average larger than vertical amplitudes by a factor of 1.8. The recommendation made is to measure Ml amplitudes on the vertical channels and then add the logarithm scale factor to have a measure of maximum amplitude on the horizontal. The new Ml is compared to Mw from EMSC, and there is almost a 1:1 relationship, indicating that the new scale gives reliable magnitudes for Turkey.

  7. An empirical evolutionary magnitude estimation for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yih-Min; Chen, Da-Yi

    2016-04-01

    For earthquake early warning (EEW) system, it is a difficult mission to accurately estimate earthquake magnitude in the early nucleation stage of an earthquake occurrence because only few stations are triggered and the recorded seismic waveforms are short. One of the feasible methods to measure the size of earthquakes is to extract amplitude parameters within the initial portion of waveform after P-wave arrival. However, a large-magnitude earthquake (Mw > 7.0) may take longer time to complete the whole ruptures of the causative fault. Instead of adopting amplitude contents in fixed-length time window, that may underestimate magnitude for large-magnitude events, we suppose a fast, robust and unsaturated approach to estimate earthquake magnitudes. In this new method, the EEW system can initially give a bottom-bund magnitude in a few second time window and then update magnitude without saturation by extending the time window. Here we compared two kinds of time windows for adopting amplitudes. One is pure P-wave time widow (PTW); the other is whole-wave time window after P-wave arrival (WTW). The peak displacement amplitude in vertical component were adopted from 1- to 10-s length PTW and WTW, respectively. Linear regression analysis were implemented to find the empirical relationships between peak displacement, hypocentral distances, and magnitudes using the earthquake records from 1993 to 2012 with magnitude greater than 5.5 and focal depth less than 30 km. The result shows that using WTW to estimate magnitudes accompanies with smaller standard deviation. In addition, large uncertainties exist in the 1-second time widow. Therefore, for magnitude estimations we suggest the EEW system need to progressively adopt peak displacement amplitudes form 2- to 10-s WTW.

  8. Are Earthquakes Predictable? A Study on Magnitude Correlations in Earthquake Catalog and Experimental Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrianaki, K.; Ross, G.; Sammonds, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    The clustering of earthquakes in time and space is widely accepted, however the existence of correlations in earthquake magnitudes is more questionable. In standard models of seismic activity, it is usually assumed that magnitudes are independent and therefore in principle unpredictable. Our work seeks to test this assumption by analysing magnitude correlation between earthquakes and their aftershocks. To separate mainshocks from aftershocks, we perform stochastic declustering based on the widely used Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which allows us to then compare the average magnitudes of aftershock sequences to that of their mainshock. The results of earthquake magnitude correlations were compared with acoustic emissions (AE) from laboratory analog experiments, as fracturing generates both AE at the laboratory scale and earthquakes on a crustal scale. Constant stress and constant strain rate experiments were done on Darley Dale sandstone under confining pressure to simulate depth of burial. Microcracking activity inside the rock volume was analyzed by the AE technique as a proxy for earthquakes. Applying the ETAS model to experimental data allowed us to validate our results and provide for the first time a holistic view on the correlation of earthquake magnitudes. Additionally we search the relationship between the conditional intensity estimates of the ETAS model and the earthquake magnitudes. A positive relation would suggest the existence of magnitude correlations. The aim of this study is to observe any trends of dependency between the magnitudes of aftershock earthquakes and the earthquakes that trigger them.

  9. Comparison between different earthquake magnitudes determined by China Seismograph Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Rui-feng; CHEN Yun-tai; REN Xiao; XU Zhi-guo; SUN Li; YANG Hui; LIANG Jian-hong; REN Ke-xin

    2007-01-01

    By linear regression and orthogonal regression methods, comparisons are made between different magnitudes (local magnitude ML, surface wave magnitudes MS and MS7, long-period body wave magnitude mB and short-period body wave magnitude mb) determined by Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, on the basis of observation data collected by China Seismograph Network between 1983 and 2004. Empirical relations between different magnitudes have been obtained. The result shows that: ①As different magnitude scales reflect radiated energy by seismic waves within different periods, earthquake magnitudes can be described more objectively by using different scales for earthquakes of different magnitudes. When the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, local magnitude ML can be a preferable scale; In case MMS, i.e., MS underestimates magnitudes of such events, therefore, mB can be a better choice; In case M>6.0, MS>mB>mb, both mB and mb underestimate the magnitudes, so MS is a preferable scale for determining magnitudes of such events (6.08.5, a saturation phenomenon appears in MS, which cannot give an accurate reflection of the magnitudes of such large events; ②In China, when the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, there is almost no difference between ML and MS, and thus there is no need to convert between the two magnitudes in practice; ③Although MS and MS7 are both surface wave magnitudes, MS is in general greater than MS7 by 0.2~0.3 magnitude, because different instruments and calculation formulae are used; ④mB is almost equal to mb for earthquakes around mB4.0, but mB is larger than mb for those of mB(4.5, because the periods of seismic waves used for measuring mB and mb are different though the calculation formulae are the same.

  10. Correlating precursory declines in groundwater radon with earthquake magnitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, T

    2014-01-01

    Both studies at the Antung hot spring in eastern Taiwan and at the Paihe spring in southern Taiwan confirm that groundwater radon can be a consistent tracer for strain changes in the crust preceding an earthquake when observed in a low-porosity fractured aquifer surrounded by a ductile formation. Recurrent anomalous declines in groundwater radon were observed at the Antung D1 monitoring well in eastern Taiwan prior to the five earthquakes of magnitude (Mw ): 6.8, 6.1, 5.9, 5.4, and 5.0 that occurred on December 10, 2003; April 1, 2006; April 15, 2006; February 17, 2008; and July 12, 2011, respectively. For earthquakes occurring on the longitudinal valley fault in eastern Taiwan, the observed radon minima decrease as the earthquake magnitude increases. The above correlation has been proven to be useful for early warning local large earthquakes. In southern Taiwan, radon anomalous declines prior to the 2010 Mw 6.3 Jiasian, 2012 Mw 5.9 Wutai, and 2012 ML 5.4 Kaohsiung earthquakes were also recorded at the Paihe spring. For earthquakes occurring on different faults in southern Taiwan, the correlation between the observed radon minima and the earthquake magnitude is not yet possible. © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

  11. Rapid Earthquake Magnitude Estimation for Early Warning Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Dara; Bock, Yehuda; Melgar, Diego

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake magnitude is a concise metric that provides invaluable information about the destructive potential of a seismic event. Rapid estimation of magnitude for earthquake and tsunami early warning purposes requires reliance on near-field instrumentation. For large magnitude events, ground motions can exceed the dynamic range of near-field broadband seismic instrumentation (clipping). Strong motion accelerometers are designed with low gains to better capture strong shaking. Estimating earthquake magnitude rapidly from near-source strong-motion data requires integration of acceleration waveforms to displacement. However, integration amplifies small errors, creating unphysical drift that must be eliminated with a high pass filter. The loss of the long period information due to filtering is an impediment to magnitude estimation in real-time; the relation between ground motion measured with strong-motion instrumentation and magnitude saturates, leading to underestimation of earthquake magnitude. Using station displacements from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, we can supplement the high frequency information recorded by traditional seismic systems with long-period observations to better inform rapid response. Unlike seismic-only instrumentation, ground motions measured with GNSS scale with magnitude without saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. We refine the current magnitude scaling relations using peak ground displacement (PGD) by adding a large GNSS dataset of earthquakes in Japan. Because it does not suffer from saturation, GNSS alone has significant advantages over seismic-only instrumentation for rapid magnitude estimation of large events. The earthquake's magnitude can be estimated within 2-3 minutes of earthquake onset time [Melgar et al., 2013]. We demonstrate that seismogeodesy, the optimal combination of GNSS and seismic data at collocated stations, provides the added benefit of improving the sensitivity of

  12. An empirical evolutionary magnitude estimation for early warning of earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Da-Yi; Wu, Yih-Min; Chin, Tai-Lin

    2017-03-01

    The earthquake early warning (EEW) system is difficult to provide consistent magnitude estimate in the early stage of an earthquake occurrence because only few stations are triggered and few seismic signals are recorded. One of the feasible methods to measure the size of earthquakes is to extract amplitude parameters using the initial portion of the recorded waveforms after P-wave arrival. However, for a large-magnitude earthquake (Mw > 7.0), the time to complete the whole ruptures resulted from the corresponding fault may be very long. The magnitude estimations may not be correctly predicted by the initial portion of the seismograms. To estimate the magnitude of a large earthquake in real-time, the amplitude parameters should be updated with ongoing waveforms instead of adopting amplitude contents in a predefined fixed-length time window, since it may underestimate magnitude for large-magnitude events. In this paper, we propose a fast, robust and less-saturated approach to estimate earthquake magnitudes. The EEW system will initially give a lower-bound of the magnitude in a time window with a few seconds and then update magnitude with less saturation by extending the time window. Here we compared two kinds of time windows for measuring amplitudes. One is P-wave time window (PTW) after P-wave arrival; the other is whole-wave time window after P-wave arrival (WTW), which may include both P and S wave. One to ten second time windows for both PTW and WTW are considered to measure the peak ground displacement from the vertical component of the waveforms. Linear regression analysis are run at each time step (1- to 10-s time interval) to find the empirical relationships among peak ground displacement, hypocentral distances, and magnitudes using the earthquake records from 1993 to 2012 in Taiwan with magnitude greater than 5.5 and focal depth less than 30 km. The result shows that considering WTW to estimate magnitudes has smaller standard deviation than PTW. The

  13. Earthquake rate and magnitude distributions of great earthquakes for use in global forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2016-07-01

    We have obtained new results in the statistical analysis of global earthquake catalogues with special attention to the largest earthquakes, and we examined the statistical behaviour of earthquake rate variations. These results can serve as an input for updating our recent earthquake forecast, known as the `Global Earthquake Activity Rate 1' model (GEAR1), which is based on past earthquakes and geodetic strain rates. The GEAR1 forecast is expressed as the rate density of all earthquakes above magnitude 5.8 within 70 km of sea level everywhere on earth at 0.1 × 0.1 degree resolution, and it is currently being tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability. The seismic component of the present model is based on a smoothed version of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogue from 1977 through 2013. The tectonic component is based on the Global Strain Rate Map, a `General Earthquake Model' (GEM) product. The forecast was optimized to fit the GCMT data from 2005 through 2012, but it also fit well the earthquake locations from 1918 to 1976 reported in the International Seismological Centre-Global Earthquake Model (ISC-GEM) global catalogue of instrumental and pre-instrumental magnitude determinations. We have improved the recent forecast by optimizing the treatment of larger magnitudes and including a longer duration (1918-2011) ISC-GEM catalogue of large earthquakes to estimate smoothed seismicity. We revised our estimates of upper magnitude limits, described as corner magnitudes, based on the massive earthquakes since 2004 and the seismic moment conservation principle. The new corner magnitude estimates are somewhat larger than but consistent with our previous estimates. For major subduction zones we find the best estimates of corner magnitude to be in the range 8.9 to 9.6 and consistent with a uniform average of 9.35. Statistical estimates tend to grow with time as larger earthquakes occur. However, by using the moment conservation

  14. Magnitude 8.1 Earthquake off the Solomon Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    On April 1, 2007, a magnitude 8.1 earthquake rattled the Solomon Islands, 2,145 kilometers (1,330 miles) northeast of Brisbane, Australia. Centered less than ten kilometers beneath the Earth's surface, the earthquake displaced enough water in the ocean above to trigger a small tsunami. Though officials were still assessing damage to remote island communities on April 3, Reuters reported that the earthquake and the tsunami killed an estimated 22 people and left as many as 5,409 homeless. The most serious damage occurred on the island of Gizo, northwest of the earthquake epicenter, where the tsunami damaged the hospital, schools, and hundreds of houses, said Reuters. This image, captured by the Landsat-7 satellite, shows the location of the earthquake epicenter in relation to the nearest islands in the Solomon Island group. Gizo is beyond the left edge of the image, but its triangular fringing coral reefs are shown in the upper left corner. Though dense rain forest hides volcanic features from view, the very shape of the islands testifies to the geologic activity of the region. The circular Kolombangara Island is the tip of a dormant volcano, and other circular volcanic peaks are visible in the image. The image also shows that the Solomon Islands run on a northwest-southeast axis parallel to the edge of the Pacific plate, the section of the Earth's crust that carries the Pacific Ocean and its islands. The earthquake occurred along the plate boundary, where the Australia/Woodlark/Solomon Sea plates slide beneath the denser Pacific plate. Friction between the sinking (subducting) plates and the overriding Pacific plate led to the large earthquake on April 1, said the United States Geological Survey (USGS) summary of the earthquake. Large earthquakes are common in the region, though the section of the plate that produced the April 1 earthquake had not caused any quakes of magnitude 7 or larger since the early 20th century, said the USGS.

  15. Newmark design spectra considering earthquake magnitudes and site categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bo; Xie, Wei-Chau; Pandey, M. D.

    2016-09-01

    Newmark design spectra have been implemented in many building codes, especially in building codes for critical structures. Previous studies show that Newmark design spectra exhibit lower amplitudes at high frequencies and larger amplitudes at low frequencies in comparison with spectra developed by statistical methods. To resolve this problem, this study considers three suites of ground motions recorded at three types of sites. Using these ground motions, influences of the shear-wave velocity, earthquake magnitudes, source-to-site distances on the ratios of ground motion parameters are studied, and spectrum amplification factors are statistically calculated. Spectral bounds for combinations of three site categories and two cases of earthquake magnitudes are estimated. Site design spectrum coefficients for the three site categories considering earthquake magnitudes are established. The problems of Newmark design spectra could be resolved by using the site design spectrum coefficients to modify the spectral values of Newmark design spectra in the acceleration sensitive, velocity sensitive, and displacement sensitive regions.

  16. Probable Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes for the Cascadia Subduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rong, Y.; Jackson, D. D.; Magistrale, H.; Goldfinger, C.

    2013-12-01

    The concept of maximum earthquake magnitude (mx) is widely used in seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, absolute mx lacks a precise definition and cannot be determined from a finite earthquake history. The surprising magnitudes of the 2004 Sumatra and the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes showed that most methods for estimating mx underestimate the true maximum if it exists. Thus, we introduced the alternate concept of mp(T), probable maximum magnitude within a time interval T. The mp(T) can be solved using theoretical magnitude-frequency distributions such as Tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) distribution. The two TGR parameters, β-value (which equals 2/3 b-value in the GR distribution) and corner magnitude (mc), can be obtained by applying maximum likelihood method to earthquake catalogs with additional constraint from tectonic moment rate. Here, we integrate the paleoseismic data in the Cascadia subduction zone to estimate mp. The Cascadia subduction zone has been seismically quiescent since at least 1900. Fortunately, turbidite studies have unearthed a 10,000 year record of great earthquakes along the subduction zone. We thoroughly investigate the earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution of the region by combining instrumental and paleoseismic data, and using the tectonic moment rate information. To use the paleoseismic data, we first estimate event magnitudes, which we achieve by using the time interval between events, rupture extent of the events, and turbidite thickness. We estimate three sets of TGR parameters: for the first two sets, we consider a geographically large Cascadia region that includes the subduction zone, and the Explorer, Juan de Fuca, and Gorda plates; for the third set, we consider a narrow geographic region straddling the subduction zone. In the first set, the β-value is derived using the GCMT catalog. In the second and third sets, the β-value is derived using both the GCMT and paleoseismic data. Next, we calculate the corresponding mc

  17. Earthquake Early Warning with Seismogeodesy: Detection, Location, and Magnitude Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning is critical to reducing injuries and casualties in case of a large magnitude earthquake. The system must rely on near-source data to minimize the time between event onset and issuance of a warning. Early warning systems typically use seismic instruments (seismometers and accelerometers), but these instruments experience difficulty maintaining reliable data in the near-source region and undergo magnitude saturation for large events. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instruments capture the long period motions and have been shown to produce robust estimates of the true size of the earthquake source. However, GNSS is often overlooked in this context in part because it is not precise enough to record the first seismic wave arrivals (P-wave detection), an important consideration for issuing an early warning. GNSS instruments are becoming integrated into early warning, but are not yet fully exploited. Our approach involves the combination of direct measurements from collocated GNSS and accelerometer stations to estimate broadband coseismic displacement and velocity waveforms [Bock et al., 2011], a method known as seismogeodesy. We present the prototype seismogeodetic early warning system developed at Scripps and demonstrate that the seismogeodetic dataset can be used for P-wave detection, hypocenter location, and shaking onset determination. We discuss uncertainties in each of these estimates and include discussion of the sensitivity of our estimates as a function of the azimuthal distribution of monitoring stations. The seismogeodetic combination has previously been shown to be immune to magnitude saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. Rapid magnitude estimation is an important product in earthquake early warning, and is the critical metric in current tsunami hazard warnings. Using the seismogeodetic approach, we refine earthquake magnitude scaling using P-wave amplitudes (Pd) and peak ground displacements (PGD) for a

  18. Automated Determination of Magnitude and Source Extent of Large Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dun

    2017-04-01

    Rapid determination of earthquake magnitude is of importance for estimating shaking damages, and tsunami hazards. However, due to the complexity of source process, accurately estimating magnitude for great earthquakes in minutes after origin time is still a challenge. Mw is an accurate estimate for large earthquakes. However, calculating Mw requires the whole wave trains including P, S, and surface phases, which takes tens of minutes to reach stations at tele-seismic distances. To speed up the calculation, methods using W phase and body wave are developed for fast estimating earthquake sizes. Besides these methods that involve Green's Functions and inversions, there are other approaches that use empirically simulated relations to estimate earthquake magnitudes, usually for large earthquakes. The nature of simple implementation and straightforward calculation made these approaches widely applied at many institutions such as the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the USGS. Here we developed an approach that was originated from Hara [2007], estimating magnitude by considering P-wave displacement and source duration. We introduced a back-projection technique [Wang et al., 2016] instead to estimate source duration using array data from a high-sensitive seismograph network (Hi-net). The introduction of back-projection improves the method in two ways. Firstly, the source duration could be accurately determined by seismic array. Secondly, the results can be more rapidly calculated, and data derived from farther stations are not required. We purpose to develop an automated system for determining fast and reliable source information of large shallow seismic events based on real time data of a dense regional array and global data, for earthquakes that occur at distance of roughly 30°- 85° from the array center. This system can offer fast and robust estimates of magnitudes and rupture extensions of large earthquakes in 6 to 13 min (plus

  19. The effects of earthquake measurement concepts and magnitude anchoring on individuals' perceptions of earthquake risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celsi, R.; Wolfinbarger, M.; Wald, D.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to explore earthquake risk perceptions in California. Specifically, we examine the risk beliefs, feelings, and experiences of lay, professional, and expert individuals to explore how risk is perceived and how risk perceptions are formed relative to earthquakes. Our results indicate that individuals tend to perceptually underestimate the degree that earthquake (EQ) events may affect them. This occurs in large part because individuals' personal felt experience of EQ events are generally overestimated relative to experienced magnitudes. An important finding is that individuals engage in a process of "cognitive anchoring" of their felt EQ experience towards the reported earthquake magnitude size. The anchoring effect is moderated by the degree that individuals comprehend EQ magnitude measurement and EQ attenuation. Overall, the results of this research provide us with a deeper understanding of EQ risk perceptions, especially as they relate to individuals' understanding of EQ measurement and attenuation concepts. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  20. The Road to Convergence in Earthquake Frequency-Magnitude Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, M.; Bell, A. F.; Main, I. G.

    2013-12-01

    The Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation is a fundamental empirical law of seismology, but its form remains uncertain for rare extreme events. Convergence trends can be diagnostic of the nature of an underlying distribution and its sampling even before convergence has occurred. We examine the evolution of an information criteria metric applied to earthquake magnitude time series, in order to test whether the Gutenberg-Richter law can be rejecting in various earthquake catalogues. This would imply that the catalogue is starting to sample roll-off in the tail though it cannot yet identify the form of the roll-off. We compare bootstrapped synthetic Gutenberg-Richter and synthetic modified Gutenberg-Richter catalogues with the convergence trends observed in real earthquake data e.g. the global CMT catalogue, Southern California and mining/geothermal data. Whilst convergence in the tail remains some way off, we show that the temporal evolution of model likelihoods and parameters for the frequency-magnitude distribution of the global Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue is inconsistent with an unbounded GR relation, despite it being the preferred model at the current time. Bell, A. F., M. Naylor, and I. G. Main (2013), Convergence of the frequency-size distribution of global earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2585-2589, doi:10.1002/grl.50416.

  1. Does low magnitude earthquake ground shaking cause landslides?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brain, Matthew; Rosser, Nick; Vann Jones, Emma; Tunstall, Neil

    2015-04-01

    Estimating the magnitude of coseismic landslide strain accumulation at both local and regional scales is a key goal in understanding earthquake-triggered landslide distributions and landscape evolution, and in undertaking seismic risk assessment. Research in this field has primarily been carried out using the 'Newmark sliding block method' to model landslide behaviour; downslope movement of the landslide mass occurs when seismic ground accelerations are sufficient to overcome shear resistance at the landslide shear surface. The Newmark method has the advantage of simplicity, requiring only limited information on material strength properties, landslide geometry and coseismic ground motion. However, the underlying conceptual model assumes that shear strength characteristics (friction angle and cohesion) calculated using conventional strain-controlled monotonic shear tests are valid under dynamic conditions, and that values describing shear strength do not change as landslide shear strain accumulates. Recent experimental work has begun to question these assumptions, highlighting, for example, the importance of shear strain rate and changes in shear strength properties following seismic loading. However, such studies typically focus on a single earthquake event that is of sufficient magnitude to cause permanent strain accumulation; by doing so, they do not consider the potential effects that multiple low-magnitude ground shaking events can have on material strength. Since such events are more common in nature relative to high-magnitude shaking events, it is important to constrain their geomorphic effectiveness. Using an experimental laboratory approach, we present results that address this key question. We used a bespoke geotechnical testing apparatus, the Dynamic Back-Pressured Shear Box (DynBPS), that uniquely permits more realistic simulation of earthquake ground-shaking conditions within a hillslope. We tested both cohesive and granular materials, both of which

  2. Earthquake catalog for estimation of maximum earthquake magnitude, Central and Eastern United States: Part B, historical earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Russell L.

    2014-01-01

    Computation of probabilistic earthquake hazard requires an estimate of Mmax: the moment magnitude of the largest earthquake that is thought to be possible within a specified geographic region. The region specified in this report is the Central and Eastern United States and adjacent Canada. Parts A and B of this report describe the construction of a global catalog of moderate to large earthquakes that occurred worldwide in tectonic analogs of the Central and Eastern United States. Examination of histograms of the magnitudes of these earthquakes allows estimation of Central and Eastern United States Mmax. The catalog and Mmax estimates derived from it are used in the 2014 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey national seismic-hazard maps. Part A deals with prehistoric earthquakes, and this part deals with historical events.

  3. Regression between earthquake magnitudes having errors with known variances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol, Jose

    2016-07-01

    Recent publications on the regression between earthquake magnitudes assume that both magnitudes are affected by error and that only the ratio of error variances is known. If X and Y represent observed magnitudes, and x and y represent the corresponding theoretical values, the problem is to find the a and b of the best-fit line y = a x + b. This problem has a closed solution only for homoscedastic errors (their variances are all equal for each of the two variables). The published solution was derived using a method that cannot provide a sum of squares of residuals. Therefore, it is not possible to compare the goodness of fit for different pairs of magnitudes. Furthermore, the method does not provide expressions for the x and y. The least-squares method introduced here does not have these drawbacks. The two methods of solution result in the same equations for a and b. General properties of a discussed in the literature but not proved, or proved for particular cases, are derived here. A comparison of different expressions for the variances of a and b is provided. The paper also considers the statistical aspects of the ongoing debate regarding the prediction of y given X. Analysis of actual data from the literature shows that a new approach produces an average improvement of less than 0.1 magnitude units over the standard approach when applied to Mw vs. mb and Mw vs. MS regressions. This improvement is minor, within the typical error of Mw. Moreover, a test subset of 100 predicted magnitudes shows that the new approach results in magnitudes closer to the theoretically true magnitudes for only 65 % of them. For the remaining 35 %, the standard approach produces closer values. Therefore, the new approach does not always give the most accurate magnitude estimates.

  4. Scaling Relations of Local Magnitude versus Moment Magnitude for Sequences of Similar Earthquakes in Switzerland

    KAUST Repository

    Bethmann, F.

    2011-03-22

    Theoretical considerations and empirical regressions show that, in the magnitude range between 3 and 5, local magnitude, ML, and moment magnitude, Mw, scale 1:1. Previous studies suggest that for smaller magnitudes this 1:1 scaling breaks down. However, the scatter between ML and Mw at small magnitudes is usually large and the resulting scaling relations are therefore uncertain. In an attempt to reduce these uncertainties, we first analyze the ML versus Mw relation based on 195 events, induced by the stimulation of a geothermal reservoir below the city of Basel, Switzerland. Values of ML range from 0.7 to 3.4. From these data we derive a scaling of ML ~ 1:5Mw over the given magnitude range. We then compare peak Wood-Anderson amplitudes to the low-frequency plateau of the displacement spectra for six sequences of similar earthquakes in Switzerland in the range of 0:5 ≤ ML ≤ 4:1. Because effects due to the radiation pattern and to the propagation path between source and receiver are nearly identical at a particular station for all events in a given sequence, the scatter in the data is substantially reduced. Again we obtain a scaling equivalent to ML ~ 1:5Mw. Based on simulations using synthetic source time functions for different magnitudes and Q values estimated from spectral ratios between downhole and surface recordings, we conclude that the observed scaling can be explained by attenuation and scattering along the path. Other effects that could explain the observed magnitude scaling, such as a possible systematic increase of stress drop or rupture velocity with moment magnitude, are masked by attenuation along the path.

  5. Comparison between earthquake magnitudes determined by China seismograph network and US seismograph networks (Ⅰ): Body wave magnitude

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Rui-feng; CHEN Yun-tai; Peter Bormann; REN Xiao; HOU Jian-min; ZOU Li-ye; YANG Hui

    2005-01-01

    By using orthogonal regression method, a systematic comparison is made between body wave magnitudes determined by Institute of Geophysics of China Earthquake Administration (IGCEA) and National Earthquake Information Center of US Geological Survey (USGS/NEIC) on the basis of observation data from China and US seismograph networks between 1983 and 2004. The result of orthogonal regression shows no systematic error between body wave magnitude mb determined by IGCEA and mb (NEIC). Provided that mb (NEIC) is taken as the benchmark, body wave magnitude determined by IGCEA is greater by 0.2~0.1 than the magnitude determined by NEIC for M=3.5~4.5 earthquakes; for M=5.0~5.5 earthquakes, there is no difference; and for M≥6.0 earthquakes, it is smaller by no more than 0.2. This is consistent with the result of comparison by IDC (International Data Center).

  6. The November 14, 2001 west of Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake: An earthquake with unsaturated surface wave magnitude

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Rui-feng; CHEN Yun-tai; REN Xiao; HOU Jian-min; ZOU Li-ye

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the magnitude determination of the November 14, 2001 west of Kunlun Mountain Pass (KMP) earthquake at the juncture of Xinjiang and Qinghai, northwestern China. Comparisons are made among surface wave magnitudes determined by China National Digital Seismograph Network (CNDSN),National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of US Geological Survey (USGS) and moment magnitudes determined by different institutions in China and abroad. The result shows that different institutions yield different surface wave magnitudes, as different data and calculation formulae are used in magnitude determination. The magnitude of the earthquake in China's Rapid Earthquake Information Release was given as Ms=8.1; measurement given in the formally edited and published Observation Report of China Digital Seismograph Network is Ms=8.2;and magnitude determined by USGS/NEIC is Ms=8.0. Soon after the occurrence of the KMP earthquake, Harvard University (Harvard), USGS/NEIC, Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo University (ERI), Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Earthquake Administration (APCEA) and Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration (IGCEA) gave the moment magnitude Mw as 7.8, 7.7, 7.7, 7.6 and 7.5, respectively, based on data from Global Seismograph Network (GSN), CNDSN and China Digital Seismograph Network (CDSN). These measurements, with an average value of Mw=7.7, are close to each other. As moment magnitude is a physical quantity measuring the absolute size of an earthquake and has obvious advantages over conventional magnitude scale, and is the preferred magnitude of the international seismological community. It is concluded that the KMP earthquake is an earthquake with unsaturated surface wave magnitude with moment magnitude Mw=7.7 and surface wave magnitude Ms=8.0.

  7. Magnitude and location of historical earthquakes in Japan and implications for the 1855 Ansei Edo earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakun, W.H.

    2005-01-01

    Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) intensity assignments IJMA are used to derive intensity attenuation models suitable for estimating the location and an intensity magnitude Mjma for historical earthquakes in Japan. The intensity for shallow crustal earthquakes on Honshu is equal to -1.89 + 1.42MJMA - 0.00887?? h - 1.66log??h, where MJMA is the JMA magnitude, ??h = (??2 + h2)1/2, and ?? and h are epicentral distance and focal depth (km), respectively. Four earthquakes located near the Japan Trench were used to develop a subducting plate intensity attenuation model where intensity is equal to -8.33 + 2.19MJMA -0.00550??h - 1.14 log ?? h. The IJMA assignments for the MJMA7.9 great 1923 Kanto earthquake on the Philippine Sea-Eurasian plate interface are consistent with the subducting plate model; Using the subducting plate model and 226 IJMA IV-VI assignments, the location of the intensity center is 25 km north of the epicenter, Mjma is 7.7, and MJMA is 7.3-8.0 at the 1?? confidence level. Intensity assignments and reported aftershock activity for the enigmatic 11 November 1855 Ansei Edo earthquake are consistent with an MJMA 7.2 Philippine Sea-Eurasian interplate source or Philippine Sea intraslab source at about 30 km depth. If the 1855 earthquake was a Philippine Sea-Eurasian interplate event, the intensity center was adjacent to and downdip of the rupture area of the great 1923 Kanto earthquake, suggesting that the 1855 and 1923 events ruptured adjoining sections of the Philippine Sea-Eurasian plate interface.

  8. Comparison between earthquake magnitudes determined by China seismograph network and US seismograph network (Ⅱ):Surface wave magnitude

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    By using orthogonal regression method, a systematic comparison is made between surface wave magnitudes determined by Institute of Geophysics of China Earthquake Administration (IGCEA) and National Earthquake Information Center of US Geological Survey (USGS/NEIC) on the basis of observation data collected by the two institutions between 1983 and 2004. A formula is obtained which reveals the relationship between surface wave magnitudes determined by China seismograph network and US seismograph network. The result shows that, as different calculation formulae and observational instruments are used, surface wave magnitude determined by IGCEA is generally greater by 0.2 than that determined by NEIC: for M=3.5~4.5 earthquakes, it is greater by 0.3;for M=5.0~6.5 earthquakes, it is greater by 0.2;and for M≥7.0 earthquakes, it is greater by no more than 0.1.

  9. Physics-based estimates of maximum magnitude of induced earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Galis, Martin; Mai, P. Martin

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we present new findings when integrating earthquake physics and rupture dynamics into estimates of maximum magnitude of induced seismicity (Mmax). Existing empirical relations for Mmax lack a physics-based relation between earthquake size and the characteristics of the triggering stress perturbation. To fill this gap, we extend our recent work on the nucleation and arrest of dynamic ruptures derived from fracture mechanics theory. There, we derived theoretical relations between the area and overstress of overstressed asperity and the ability of ruptures to either stop spontaneously (sub-critical ruptures) or runaway (super-critical ruptures). These relations were verified by comparison with simulation and laboratory results, namely 3D dynamic rupture simulations on faults governed by slip-weakening friction, and laboratory experiments of frictional sliding nucleated by localized stresses. Here, we apply and extend these results to situations that are representative for the induced seismicity environment. We present physics-based predictions of Mmax on a fault intersecting cylindrical reservoir. We investigate Mmax dependence on pore-pressure variations (by varying reservoir parameters), frictional parameters and stress conditions of the fault. We also derive Mmax as a function of injected volume. Our approach provides results that are consistent with observations but suggests different scaling with injected volume than that of empirical relation by McGarr, 2014.

  10. Earthquake catalog for estimation of maximum earthquake magnitude, Central and Eastern United States: Part A, Prehistoric earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Russell L.

    2014-01-01

    Computation of probabilistic earthquake hazard requires an estimate of Mmax, the maximum earthquake magnitude thought to be possible within a specified geographic region. This report is Part A of an Open-File Report that describes the construction of a global catalog of moderate to large earthquakes, from which one can estimate Mmax for most of the Central and Eastern United States and adjacent Canada. The catalog and Mmax estimates derived from it were used in the 2014 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey national seismic-hazard maps. This Part A discusses prehistoric earthquakes that occurred in eastern North America, northwestern Europe, and Australia, whereas a separate Part B deals with historical events.

  11. Singular statistics to model the distribution of large and small magnitude earthquakes

    CERN Document Server

    Maslov, Lev A

    2014-01-01

    The solution of the Generalized Logistic Equation is obtained to study earthquake statistics for large and small magnitudes. It is shown that the same solution fits the distribution of small magnitude earthquakes, m3, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The Gutenberg-Richter cumulative frequency-magnitude empirical formula is derived from the solution of this equation.

  12. Earthquakes clustering based on the magnitude and the depths in Molluca Province

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wattimanela, H. J., E-mail: hwattimaela@yahoo.com [Pattimura University, Ambon (Indonesia); Institute of Technology Bandung, Bandung (Indonesia); Pasaribu, U. S.; Indratno, S. W.; Puspito, A. N. T. [Institute of Technology Bandung, Bandung (Indonesia)

    2015-12-22

    In this paper, we present a model to classify the earthquakes occurred in Molluca Province. We use K-Means clustering method to classify the earthquake based on the magnitude and the depth of the earthquake. The result can be used for disaster mitigation and for designing evacuation route in Molluca Province.

  13. Brief communication "The magnitude 7.2 Bohol earthquake, Philippines"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. F. Lagmay

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available A devastating earthquake struck Bohol, Philippines on 15 October 2013. The earthquake originated at 12 km depth from an unmapped reverse fault, which manifested on the surface for several kilometers and with maximum vertical displacement of 3 m. The earthquake resulted in 222 fatalities with damage to infrastructure estimated at US52.06 million. Widespread landslides and sinkholes formed in the predominantly limestone region during the earthquake. These remain a significant threat to communities as destabilized hillside slopes, landslide-dammed rivers and incipient sinkholes are still vulnerable to collapse, triggered possibly by aftershocks and heavy rains in the upcoming months of November and December.

  14. Brief communication "The magnitude 7.2 Bohol earthquake, Philippines"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagmay, A. M. F.; Eco, R.

    2014-03-01

    A devastating earthquake struck Bohol, Philippines on 15 October 2013. The earthquake originated at 12 km depth from an unmapped reverse fault, which manifested on the surface for several kilometers and with maximum vertical displacement of 3 m. The earthquake resulted in 222 fatalities with damage to infrastructure estimated at US52.06 million. Widespread landslides and sinkholes formed in the predominantly limestone region during the earthquake. These remain a significant threat to communities as destabilized hillside slopes, landslide-dammed rivers and incipient sinkholes are still vulnerable to collapse, triggered possibly by aftershocks and heavy rains in the upcoming months of November and December.

  15. Discussion on the Relationship between Different Earthquake Magnitude Scales and the Effect of Seismic Station Sites on Magnitude Estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Hongzhi; Diao Guiling; Zhao Mingchun; Wang Qincai; Zhang Xiao; Huang Yuan

    2008-01-01

    Based on the earthquake catalog reported by the Chinese digital seismic network in recent years, we select the earthquakes with both surface wave magnitude and local magnitude and fit them into a relationship between the two magnitudes. The systematic difference is found from the formula which has been used for 30 years. Because of a large dynamic range and wide frequency range of the current digital observation system, in addition to a larger number of stations and earthquakes being used compared to before, the relation obtained in this paper seems more reliable. Our calculation shows that there is no significant difference before and after magnitude conversion so we suggest the abandonment of magnitude conversion. The site response of a station consists of amplification at different frequencies. The amplification is equal to about 1 and changes little with frequency at stations located on basement rock, and it is greater than 1 at low frequency ranges and less than 1 at high frequency ranges at stations located on sediment layers. The difference between magnitudes from single station located on sediment layer and the average magnitude from the whole network increases from negative to positive with period. It seems that there is no fixed station correction factor and the station correction method does not work to improve the accuracy and magnitude estimates.

  16. Do magnitudes of great subduction earthquakes depend on strength of mechanical coupling between the plates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, Stephan; Muldashev, Iskander

    2017-04-01

    The common thinking is that the magnitude of a great subduction earthquake correlates with the strength of mechanical coupling between slab and overriding plate. Based on this idea, Ruff and Kanamori (1980) suggested that maximum earthquake's magnitude is controlled by two parameters: age of subducting plate and plate convergence rate, when the youngest and the fastest slabs generate the largest earthquakes. This view was supported by many researches since then. However, since 1980 a number of great earthquakes, and particularly two largest earthquakes of the last 12 years, i.e. Great Sumatra/Andaman 2004 Earthquake and Tohoku 2011 earthquake, have violated the suggested correlation. We address the relation between strength of mechanical coupling and earthquake magnitude directly by cross-scale geodynamic modeling of seismic cycles of great subduction earthquakes. This modeling technique employs elasticity, non-linear transient viscous rheology, and rate-and-state friction at slab interface. It generates spontaneous earthquake sequences, and, by using an adaptive time-step algorithm, recreates the deformation process as observed naturally over single and multiple seismic cycles. We model seismic cycles for the great subduction earthquakes with different geometries of subducting plates, different static friction coefficients in subduction channels and different subduction velocities. Under the assumption that rupture length scales with the rupture width, our models demonstrate that maximum magnitudes of the earthquakes are exclusively controlled by the factors that increase rupture width. These factors are: low slab's dipping angle (the largest effect), low friction coefficient in subduction channel (smaller effect) and high subduction velocity (the smallest effect). Models suggest that maximum magnitudes of earthquakes do not correlate significantly with the magnitudes of normal and shear stresses at subduction interface. In agreement with observations, our models

  17. Prediction of the date, magnitude and affected area of impending strong earthquakes using integration of multi precursors earthquake parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Saradjian

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Usually a precursor alone might not be useful as an accurate, precise, and stand-alone criteria for the earthquake parameters prediction. Therefore it is more appropriate to exploit parameters extracted from a variety of individual precursors so that their simultaneous integration would reduce the parameters's uncertainty.

    In our previous studies, five strong earthquakes which happened in the Samoa Islands, Sichuan (China, L'Aquila (Italy, Borujerd (Iran and Zarand (Iran have been analyzed to locate unusual variations in the time series of the different earthquake precursors. In this study, we have attempted to estimate earthquake parameters using the detected anomalies in the mentioned case studies.

    Using remote sensing observations, this study examines variations of electron and ion density, electron temperature, total electron content (TEC, electric and magnetic fields and land surface temperature (LST several days before the studied earthquakes. Regarding the ionospheric precursors, the geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp were used to distinguish pre-earthquake disturbed states from the other anomalies related to the geomagnetic activities.

    The inter-quartile range of data was utilized to construct their upper and lower bound to detect disturbed states outsides the bounds which might be associated with impending earthquakes.

    When the disturbed state associated with an impending earthquake is detected, based on the type of precursor, the number of days relative to the earthquake day is estimated. Then regarding the deviation value of the precursor from the undisturbed state the magnitude of the impending earthquake is estimated. The radius of the affected area is calculated using the estimated magnitude and Dobrovolsky formula.

    In order to assess final earthquake parameters (i.e. date, magnitude and radius of the affected area for each case study, the earthquake

  18. The long-term geologic hazards in areas struck by large-magnitude earthquakes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wasowski, Janusz; Jibson, Randell W.; Huang, Runqiu; van Asch, Theo

    2014-01-01

    Large-magnitude earthquakes occur every year, but most hit remote and uninhabited regions and thus go unnoticed. Although populated areas are affected infrequently by large earthquakes, each time the outcomes are devastating in terms of life and property loss. The human and economic costs of natural

  19. The long-term geologic hazards in areas struck by large-magnitude earthquakes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wasowski, Janusz; Jibson, Randell W.; Huang, Runqiu; van Asch, Theo

    2014-01-01

    Large-magnitude earthquakes occur every year, but most hit remote and uninhabited regions and thus go unnoticed. Although populated areas are affected infrequently by large earthquakes, each time the outcomes are devastating in terms of life and property loss. The human and economic costs of natural

  20. Maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude of structures affecting the Ujung Lemahabang site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerjodibroto, M. [National Atomic Energy Agency, Jakarta (Indonesia)

    1997-03-01

    This report analyse the geological structures in/around Muria Peninsula that might originating potential earthquake hazard toward the selected site for NPP, Ujung Lemahabang (ULA). Analysis was focused on the Lasem fault and AF-1/AF-4 offshore faults that are considered as the determinant structures affecting the seismicity of ULA (Nira, 1979, Newjec, 1994). Methods for estimating the MCE of the structures include maximum historical earthquake, and relationship between the length of the fault and the magnitude of earthquake originating from the known structure (Tocher, Iida, Matsuda, Wells and Coopersmith). The MCE magnitude estimating by these method for earthquake originating along the Lasem and AF-1/AF-4 faults vary from 2,1M to 7,0M. Comparison between the result of historical data and fault-magnitude relationship, however, suggest a MCE magnitude of Ms=7,0M for both fault zones. (author)

  1. Earthquake probabilities and magnitude distribution (M≥6.7) along the Haiyuan fault, northwestern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    冉洪流

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recurrence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and considering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of MS≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault.

  2. Analyses of surface motions caused by the magnitude 9.0 2004 Sumatra earthquake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Gudmundsson, Ó.

    The Sumatra, Indonesia, earthquake on December 26th was one of the most devastating earthquakes in history. With a magnitude of Mw = 9.0 it is the forth largest earthquake recorded since 1900. It occurred about one hundred kilometers off the west coast of northern Sumatra, where the relatively thin...... of years. The result was a devastating tsunami hitting coastlines across the Indian Ocean killing more than 225,000 people in Sri Lanka, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. An earthquake of this magnitude is expected to involve a displacement on the fault on the order of 10 meters. But, what...... was the actual amplitude of the surface motions that triggered the tsunami? This can be constrained using the amplitudes of elastic waves radiated from the earthquake, or by direct measurements of deformation. Here we present estimates of the deformation based on continuous Global Positioning System (GPS...

  3. Occurrences of large-magnitude earthquakes in the Kachchh region, Gujarat, western India: Tectonic implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Prosanta Kumar; Mohanty, Sarada Prasad; Sinha, Sushmita; Singh, Dhananjay

    2016-06-01

    Moderate-to-large damaging earthquakes in the peninsular part of the Indian plate do not support the long-standing belief of the seismic stability of this region. The historical record shows that about 15 damaging earthquakes with magnitudes from 5.5 to ~ 8.0 occurred in the Indian peninsula. Most of these events were associated with the old rift systems. Our analysis of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake and its 12-year aftershock sequence indicates a seismic zone bound by two linear trends (NNW and NNE) that intersect an E-W-trending graben. The Bouguer gravity values near the epicentre of the Bhuj earthquake are relatively low (~ 2 mgal). The gravity anomaly maps, the distribution of earthquake epicentres, and the crustal strain-rate patterns indicate that the 2001 Bhuj earthquake occurred along a fault within strain-hardened mid-crustal rocks. The collision resistance between the Indian plate and the Eurasian plate along the Himalayas and anticlockwise rotation of the Indian plate provide the far-field stresses that concentrate within a fault-bounded block close to the western margin of the Indian plate and is periodically released during earthquakes, such as the 2001 MW 7.7 Bhuj earthquake. We propose that the moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes in the deeper crust in this area occur along faults associated with old rift systems that are reactivated in a strain-hardened environment.

  4. Magnitude Estimation for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake Based on Ground Motion Prediction Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshaghi, Attieh; Tiampo, Kristy F.; Ghofrani, Hadi; Atkinson, Gail M.

    2015-08-01

    This study investigates whether real-time strong ground motion data from seismic stations could have been used to provide an accurate estimate of the magnitude of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan. Ultimately, such an estimate could be used as input data for a tsunami forecast and would lead to more robust earthquake and tsunami early warning. We collected the strong motion accelerograms recorded by borehole and free-field (surface) Kiban Kyoshin network stations that registered this mega-thrust earthquake in order to perform an off-line test to estimate the magnitude based on ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). GMPEs for peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity (PGV) from a previous study by Eshaghi et al. in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 103. (2013) derived using events with moment magnitude ( M) ≥ 5.0, 1998-2010, were used to estimate the magnitude of this event. We developed new GMPEs using a more complete database (1998-2011), which added only 1 year but approximately twice as much data to the initial catalog (including important large events), to improve the determination of attenuation parameters and magnitude scaling. These new GMPEs were used to estimate the magnitude of the Tohoku-Oki event. The estimates obtained were compared with real time magnitude estimates provided by the existing earthquake early warning system in Japan. Unlike the current operational magnitude estimation methods, our method did not saturate and can provide robust estimates of moment magnitude within ~100 s after earthquake onset for both catalogs. It was found that correcting for average shear-wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m () improved the accuracy of magnitude estimates from surface recordings, particularly for magnitude estimates of PGV (Mpgv). The new GMPEs also were used to estimate the magnitude of all earthquakes in the new catalog with at least 20 records. Results show that the magnitude estimate from PGV values using

  5. The Magnitude Distribution of Earthquakes Near Southern California Faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-16

    Lindh , 1985; Jackson and Kagan, 2006]. We do not consider time dependence in this study, but focus instead on the magnitude distribution for this fault...90032-7. Bakun, W. H., and A. G. Lindh (1985), The Parkfield, California, earth- quake prediction experiment, Science, 229(4714), 619–624, doi:10.1126

  6. Model parameter estimation bias induced by earthquake magnitude cut-off

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harte, D. S.

    2016-02-01

    We evaluate the bias in parameter estimates of the ETAS model. We show that when a simulated catalogue is magnitude-truncated there is considerable bias, whereas when it is not truncated there is no discernible bias. We also discuss two further implied assumptions in the ETAS and other self-exciting models. First, that the triggering boundary magnitude is equivalent to the catalogue completeness magnitude. Secondly, the assumption in the Gutenberg-Richter relationship that numbers of events increase exponentially as magnitude decreases. These two assumptions are confounded with the magnitude truncation effect. We discuss the effect of these problems on analyses of real earthquake catalogues.

  7. Tectonic summaries of magnitude 7 and greater earthquakes from 2000 to 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Gavin P.; Meyers, Emma K.; Dewey, James W.; Briggs, Richard W.; Earle, Paul S.; Benz, Harley M.; Smoczyk, Gregory M.; Flamme, Hanna E.; Barnhart, William D.; Gold, Ryan D.; Furlong, Kevin P.

    2017-01-11

    This paper describes the tectonic summaries for all magnitude 7 and larger earthquakes in the period 2000–2015, as produced by the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center during their routine response operations to global earthquakes. The goal of such summaries is to provide important event-specific information to the public rapidly and concisely, such that recent earthquakes can be understood within a global and regional seismotectonic framework. We compile these summaries here to provide a long-term archive for this information, and so that the variability in tectonic setting and earthquake history from region to region, and sometimes within a given region, can be more clearly understood.

  8. Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Last

    Full Text Available This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006-2010 are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698 is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.

  9. Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Last, Mark; Rabinowitz, Nitzan; Leonard, Gideon

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006-2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.

  10. Automatic detection and rapid determination of earthquake magnitude by wavelet multiscale analysis of the primary arrival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dando, B.; Simons, F. J.; Allen, R. M.

    2006-12-01

    Earthquake early warning systems save lives. It is of great importance that networked systems of seismometers be equipped with reliable tools to make rapid determinations of earthquake magnitude in the few to tens of seconds before the damaging ground motion occurs. A new fully automated algorithm based on the discrete wavelet transform detects as well as analyzes the incoming first arrival with unmatched accuracy and precision, estimating the final magnitude to within a single unit from the first few seconds of the P wave. The curious observation that such brief segments of the seismogram may contain information about the final magnitude even of very large earthquakes, which occur on faults that may rupture over tens of seconds, is central to a debate in the seismological community which we hope to stimulate but cannot attempt to address within the scope of this paper. Wavelet coefficients of the seismogram can be determined extremely rapidly and efficiently by the fast lifting wavelet transform. Extracting amplitudes at individual scales is a very simple procedure, involving a mere handful of lines of computer code. Scale-dependent thresholded amplitudes derived from the wavelet transform of the first 3--4 seconds of an incoming seismic P arrival are predictive of earthquake magnitude, with errors of one magnitude unit for seismograms recorded up to 150 km away from the earthquake source. Our procedure is a simple yet extremely efficient tool for implementation on low-power recording stations. It provides an accurate and precise method of autonomously detecting the incoming P wave and predicting the magnitude of the source from the scale-dependent character of its amplitude well before the arrival of damaging ground motion. Provided a dense array of networked seismometers exists, our procedure should become the tool of choice for earthquake early warning systems worldwide.

  11. Locations and magnitudes of earthquakes in Central Asia from seismic intensity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindi, D.; Parolai, S.; Gómez-Capera, A.; Locati, M.; Kalmetyeva, Z.; Mikhailova, N.

    2014-01-01

    We apply the Bakun and Wentworth ( Bull Seism Soc Am 87:1502-1521, 1997) method to determine the location and magnitude of earthquakes occurred in Central Asia using MSK-64 intensity assignments. The attenuation model previously derived and validated by Bindi et al. ( Geophys J Int, 2013) is used to analyse 21 earthquakes that occurred over the period 1885-1964, and the estimated locations and magnitudes are compared to values available in literature. Bootstrap analyses are performed to estimate the confidence intervals of the intensity magnitudes, as well as to quantify the location uncertainty. The analyses of seven significant earthquakes for the hazard assessment are presented in detail, including three large historical earthquakes that struck the northern Tien-Shan between the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth centuries: the 1887, M 7.3 Verny, the 1889, M 8.3 Chilik and the 1911, M 8.2 Kemin earthquakes. Regarding the 1911, Kemin earthquake the magnitude values estimated from intensity data are lower (i.e. MILH = 7.8 and MIW = 7.6 considering surface wave and moment magnitude, respectively) than the value M = 8.2 listed in the considered catalog. These values are more in agreement with the value M S = 7.8 revised by Abe and Noguchi ( Phys Earth Planet In, 33:1-11, 1983b) for the surface wave magnitude. For the Kemin earthquake, the distribution of the bootstrap solutions for the intensity centre reveal two minima, indicating that the distribution of intensity assignments do not constrain a unique solution. This is in agreement with the complex source rupture history of the Kemin earthquake, which involved several fault segments with different strike orientations, dipping angles and focal mechanisms (e.g. Delvaux et al. in Russ Geol Geophys 42:1167-1177, 2001; Arrowsmith et al. in Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 86(52), 2005). Two possible locations for the intensity centre are obtained. The first is located on the easternmost sub-faults (i

  12. Automated determination of magnitude and source length of large earthquakes using backprojection and P wave amplitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dun; Kawakatsu, Hitoshi; Zhuang, Jiancang; Mori, Jim; Maeda, Takuto; Tsuruoka, Hiroshi; Zhao, Xu

    2017-06-01

    Fast estimates of magnitude and source extent of large earthquakes are fundamental for disaster mitigation. However, resolving these estimates within 10-20 min after origin time remains challenging. Here we propose a robust algorithm to resolve magnitude and source length of large earthquakes using seismic data recorded by regional arrays and global stations. We estimate source length and source duration by backprojecting seismic array data. Then the source duration and the maximum amplitude of the teleseismic P wave displacement waveforms are used jointly to estimate magnitude. We apply this method to 74 shallow earthquakes that occurred within epicentral distances of 30-85° to Hi-net (2004-2014). The estimated magnitudes are similar to moment magnitudes estimated from W-phase inversions (U.S. Geological Survey), with standard deviations of 0.14-0.19 depending on the global station distributions. Application of this method to multiple regional seismic arrays could benefit tsunami warning systems and emergency response to large global earthquakes.

  13. On the estimate of earthquake magnitude at a local seismic network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Grazia, G.; Langer, H.; Ursino, A.; Scarfi, L. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sez. di Catania, Priolo-Grgallo, Siracusa (Italy); Gresta, S. [Catania Univ., Catania (Italy). Dipt. di Scienze Geologiche

    2001-06-01

    It was investigated possible uncertainties and bases of magnitude estimate arising from instrument characteristics site conditions and routine data processing at a local seismic network running in Southeastern Sicily. Differences in instrument characteristics turned out to be of minor importance for small and moderate earthquakes. Magnitudes routinely calculated with the Hypoellipse program are obtained from the peak ground velocities applying a correction for the dominant period. This procedure yields slightly lower values than the standard procedure, where magnitudes are estimated from peak ground displacement. In order to provide the operators in the data center with a tool for an immediate estimate of earthquake size from drum records it was carried out a bivariate regression relating local magnitude (M{sub 1}) to the duration of the signal and the travel time difference of P- and S-waves.

  14. Application of the extreme value approaches to the apparent magnitude distribution of the earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, S.; Mulargia, F.

    1985-03-01

    The apparent magnitude of an earthquake y is defined as the observed magnitude value and differs from the true magnitude m because of the experimental noise n. If f(m) is the density distribution of the magnitude m, and if g(n) is the density distribution of the error n, then the density distribution of y is simply computed by convolving f and g, i.e. h(y)=f*g. If the distinction between y and m is not realized, any statistical analysis based on the frequency-magnitude relation of the earthquake is bound to produce questionable results. In this paper we investigate the impact of the apparent magnitude idea on the statistical methods that study the earthquake distribution by taking into account only the largest (or extremal) earthquakes. We use two approaches: the Gumbel method based on Gumbel theory ( Gumbel, 1958), and the Poisson method introduced by Epstein and Lomnitz (1966). Both methods are concerned with the asymptotic properties of the magnitude distributions. Therefore, we study and compare the asymptotic behaviour of the distributions h(y) and f(m) under suitable hypotheses on the nature of the experimental noise. We investigate in detail two dinstinct cases: first, the two-side limited symmetrical noise, i.e. the noise that is bound to assume values inside a limited region, and second, the normal noise, i.e. the noise that is distributed according to a normal symmetric distribution. We further show that disregarding the noise generally leads to biased results and that, in the framework of the apparent magnitude, the Poisson approach preserves its usefulness, while the Gumbel method gives rise to a curious paradox.

  15. Effect of slip-area scaling on the earthquake frequency-magnitude relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senatorski, Piotr

    2017-06-01

    The earthquake frequency-magnitude relationship is considered in the maximum entropy principle (MEP) perspective. The MEP suggests sampling with constraints as a simple stochastic model of seismicity. The model is based on the von Neumann's acceptance-rejection method, with b-value as the parameter that breaks symmetry between small and large earthquakes. The Gutenberg-Richter law's b-value forms a link between earthquake statistics and physics. Dependence between b-value and the rupture area vs. slip scaling exponent is derived. The relationship enables us to explain observed ranges of b-values for different types of earthquakes. Specifically, different b-value ranges for tectonic and induced, hydraulic fracturing seismicity is explained in terms of their different triggering mechanisms: by the applied stress increase and fault strength reduction, respectively.

  16. Systematic Underestimation of Earthquake Magnitudes from Large Intracontinental Reverse Faults: Historical Ruptures Break Across Segment Boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, C. M.

    1996-01-01

    Because most large-magnitude earthquakes along reverse faults have such irregular and complicated rupture patterns, reverse-fault segments defined on the basis of geometry alone may not be very useful for estimating sizes of future seismic sources. Most modern large ruptures of historical earthquakes generated by intracontinental reverse faults have involved geometrically complex rupture patterns. Ruptures across surficial discontinuities and complexities such as stepovers and cross-faults are common. Specifically, segment boundaries defined on the basis of discontinuities in surficial fault traces, pronounced changes in the geomorphology along strike, or the intersection of active faults commonly have not proven to be major impediments to rupture. Assuming that the seismic rupture will initiate and terminate at adjacent major geometric irregularities will commonly lead to underestimation of magnitudes of future large earthquakes.

  17. Analyses of surface motions caused by the magnitude 9.0 2004 Sumatra earthquake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Gudmundsson, Ó.

    of years. The result was a devastating tsunami hitting coastlines across the Indian Ocean killing more than 225,000 people in Sri Lanka, India, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. An earthquake of this magnitude is expected to involve a displacement on the fault on the order of 10 meters. But, what...

  18. Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

    2017-03-01

    The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

  19. Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

    2016-10-01

    The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

  20. Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude from the arrival time of the peak high‐frequency amplitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, Shunta; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Ellsworth, William L.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a simple approach to measure earthquake magnitude M using the time difference (Top) between the body‐wave onset and the arrival time of the peak high‐frequency amplitude in an accelerogram. Measured in this manner, we find that Mw is proportional to 2logTop for earthquakes 5≤Mw≤7, which is the theoretical proportionality if Top is proportional to source dimension and stress drop is scale invariant. Using high‐frequency (>2  Hz) data, the root mean square (rms) residual between Mw and MTop(M estimated from Top) is approximately 0.5 magnitude units. The rms residuals of the high‐frequency data in passbands between 2 and 16 Hz are uniformly smaller than those obtained from the lower‐frequency data. Top depends weakly on epicentral distance, and this dependence can be ignored for distances earthquake produces a final magnitude estimate of M 9.0 at 120 s after the origin time. We conclude that Top of high‐frequency (>2  Hz) accelerograms has value in the context of earthquake early warning for extremely large events.

  1. Earthquake Declustering via a Nearest-Neighbor Approach in Space-Time-Magnitude Domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaliapin, I. V.; Ben-Zion, Y.

    2016-12-01

    We propose a new method for earthquake declustering based on nearest-neighbor analysis of earthquakes in space-time-magnitude domain. The nearest-neighbor approach was recently applied to a variety of seismological problems that validate the general utility of the technique and reveal the existence of several different robust types of earthquake clusters. Notably, it was demonstrated that clustering associated with the largest earthquakes is statistically different from that of small-to-medium events. In particular, the characteristic bimodality of the nearest-neighbor distances that helps separating clustered and background events is often violated after the largest earthquakes in their vicinity, which is dominated by triggered events. This prevents using a simple threshold between the two modes of the nearest-neighbor distance distribution for declustering. The current study resolves this problem hence extending the nearest-neighbor approach to the problem of earthquake declustering. The proposed technique is applied to seismicity of different areas in California (San Jacinto, Coso, Salton Sea, Parkfield, Ventura, Mojave, etc.), as well as to the global seismicity, to demonstrate its stability and efficiency in treating various clustering types. The results are compared with those of alternative declustering methods.

  2. Scaling relation between earthquake magnitude and the departure time from P wave similar growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, Shunta; Ellsworth, William L.

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a new scaling relation between earthquake magnitude (M) and a characteristic of initial P wave displacement. By examining Japanese K-NET data averaged in bins partitioned by Mw and hypocentral distance, we demonstrate that the P wave displacement briefly displays similar growth at the onset of rupture and that the departure time (Tdp), which is defined as the time of departure from similarity of the absolute displacement after applying a band-pass filter, correlates with the final M in a range of 4.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 7. The scaling relation between Mw and Tdp implies that useful information on the final M can be derived while the event is still in progress because Tdp occurs before the completion of rupture. We conclude that the scaling relation is important not only for earthquake early warning but also for the source physics of earthquakes.

  3. A moment-tensor catalog for intermediate magnitude earthquakes in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Cardozo, Félix; Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala; Martínez-Peláez, Liliana; Franco, Sara; Iglesias Mendoza, Arturo

    2016-04-01

    Located among five tectonic plates, Mexico is one of the world's most seismically active regions. The earthquake focal mechanisms provide important information on the active tectonics. A widespread technique for estimating the earthquake magnitud and focal mechanism is the inversion for the moment tensor, obtained by minimizing a misfit function that estimates the difference between synthetic and observed seismograms. An important element in the estimation of the moment tensor is an appropriate velocity model, which allows for the calculation of accurate Green's Functions so that the differences between observed and synthetics seismograms are due to the source of the earthquake rather than the velocity model. However, calculating accurate synthetic seismograms gets progressively more difficult as the magnitude of the earthquakes decreases. Large earthquakes (M>5.0) excite waves of longer periods that interact weakly with lateral heterogeneities in the crust. For these events, using 1D velocity models to compute Greens functions works well and they are well characterized by seismic moment tensors reported in global catalogs (eg. USGS fast moment tensor solutions and GCMT). The opposite occurs for small and intermediate sized events, where the relatively shorter periods excited interact strongly with lateral heterogeneities in the crust and upper mantle. To accurately model the Green's functions for the smaller events in a large heterogeneous area, requires 3D or regionalized 1D models. To obtain a rapid estimate of earthquake magnitude, the National Seismological Survey in Mexico (Servicio Sismológico Nacional, SSN) automatically calculates seismic moment tensors for events in the Mexican Territory (Franco et al., 2002; Nolasco-Carteño, 2006). However, for intermediate-magnitude and small earthquakes the signal-to-noise ratio could is low for many of the seismic stations, and without careful selection and filtering of the data, obtaining a stable focal mechanism

  4. The October 4th, 1983 — Magnitude 4 earthquake in Phlegraean Fields: Macroseismic survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branno, A.; Esposito, E. G. I.; Luongo, G.; Marturano, A.; Porfido, S.; Rinaldis, V.

    1984-06-01

    On Oct. 4th, 1983 the area of Phlegraean Fields, near Naples (Southern Italy) was shaked by an earthquake of magnitude ( M L) 4.0 that caused some damage in the town of Pozzuoli and its surroundings. This seismic event was the largest one recorded during the recent (1982 84) inflation episode occurred in the Phlegraean volcanic area, and a detailed macroseismic reconstruction of the event was carried out. Failing macroseismic data on other earthquakes occurred in Phlegraean Fields, the attenuation law of the intensity as a function of the distance as obtained for the Oct. 4th earthquake was compared with those obtained for other volcanic areas in central Italy — i.e., Tolfa, Monte Amiata — in order to check the reliability of the results obtained for Phlegraean Fields. The Blake's model of the earthquake of Oct. 4th, 1983 does not agree with the experimental data because isoseismals contain areas larger than those shown by the model. This result has been interpreted as an effect of energy focusing due to a reflecting layer 6 8 km deep.

  5. Reevaluation of the macroseismic effects of the 1887 Sonora, Mexico earthquake and its magnitude estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suárez, Gerardo; Hough, Susan E.

    2008-01-01

    The Sonora, Mexico, earthquake of 3 May 1887 occurred a few years before the start of the instrumental era in seismology. We revisit all available accounts of the earthquake and assign Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI), interpreting and analyzing macroseismic information using the best available modern methods. We find that earlier intensity assignments for this important earthquake were unjustifiably high in many cases. High intensity values were assigned based on accounts of rock falls, soil failure or changes in the water table, which are now known to be very poor indicators of shaking severity and intensity. Nonetheless, reliable accounts reveal that light damage (intensity VI) occurred at distances of up to ~200 km in both Mexico and the United States. The resulting set of 98 reevaluated intensity values is used to draw an isoseismal map of this event. Using the attenuation relation proposed by Bakun (2006b), we estimate an optimal moment magnitude of Mw7.6. Assuming this magnitude is correct, a fact supported independently by documented rupture parameters assuming standard scaling relations, our results support the conclusion that northern Sonora as well as the Basin and Range province are characterized by lower attenuation of intensities than California. However, this appears to be at odds with recent results that Lg attenuation in the Basin and Range province is comparable to that in California.

  6. Empirical relations to convert magnitudes of the earthquake catalogue for the north western of Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belayadi, Ilyes; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Fontiela, João; Nadji, Amansour

    2017-04-01

    North Algeria is one of the most seismically active regions on the western Mediterranean basin and it is related with the boundaries of the Eurasian and Nubian plates. We compiled an earthquake catalogue for the north western of Algeria, within the area -2°W-1°E and 34°N-37°N for the time span 1790 - 2016. To compile the earthquake catalogue we merge all available catalogues either national and international. Then we remove all duplicates and fake earthquakes. The lower level of the catalogue entries is set at M = 2.5. Nevertheless, the magnitudes reported on the catalogue are ML, Ms, Mb, Mw and macroseismic intensity. Thus, we develop new empirical relations to calculate the Mw from the different magnitudes and intensity suitable to the seismic hazard and geodynamic context of North Algeria. Acknowledgements: Ilyes Belayadi is funded entirely by the University of Oran 2 Mohamed Ben Ahmed (Algeria). This work is co-financed by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund under COMPETE 2020 (Operational Program for Competitiveness and Internationalization) through the ICT project (UID / GEO / 04683/2013) under the reference POCI-01-0145 -FEDER-007690.

  7. Earthquake Magnitude: A Teaching Module for the Spreadsheets Across the Curriculum Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetzel, L. R.; Vacher, H. L.

    2006-12-01

    Spreadsheets Across the Curriculum (SSAC) is a library of computer-based activities designed to reinforce or teach quantitative-literacy or mathematics concepts and skills in context. Each activity (called a "module" in the SSAC project) consists of a PowerPoint presentation with embedded Excel spreadsheets. Each module focuses on one or more problems for students to solve. Each student works through a presentation, thinks about the in-context problem, figures out how to solve it mathematically, and builds the spreadsheets to calculate and examine answers. The emphasis is on mathematical problem solving. The intention is for the in- context problems to span the entire range of subjects where quantitative thinking, number sense, and math non-anxiety are relevant. The self-contained modules aim to teach quantitative concepts and skills in a wide variety of disciplines (e.g., health care, finance, biology, and geology). For example, in the Earthquake Magnitude module students create spreadsheets and graphs to explore earthquake magnitude scales, wave amplitude, and energy release. In particular, students realize that earthquake magnitude scales are logarithmic. Because each step in magnitude represents a 10-fold increase in wave amplitude and approximately a 30-fold increase in energy release, large earthquakes are much more powerful than small earthquakes. The module has been used as laboratory and take-home exercises in small structural geology and solid earth geophysics courses with upper level undergraduates. Anonymous pre- and post-tests assessed students' familiarity with Excel as well as other quantitative skills. The SSAC library consists of 27 modules created by a community of educators who met for one-week "module-making workshops" in Olympia, Washington, in July of 2005 and 2006. The educators designed the modules at the workshops both to use in their own classrooms and to make available for others to adopt and adapt at other locations and in other classes

  8. ON STRUCTURED AND DIFFUSE SEISMICITY, STIFFNESS OF EARTHQUAKE FOCI, AND NONLINEARITY OF MAGNITUDE RECURRENCE GRAPHS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgeny G. Bugaev

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Geological, geophysical and seismogeological studies are now conducted in a more detail and thus provide for determining seismic sources with higher accuracy, from the first meters to first dozens of meters [Waldhauser, Schaff, 2008]. It is now possible to consider uncertainty ellipses of earthquake hypocenters, that are recorded in the updated Earthquake Catalogue, as surfaces of earthquake focus generators. In our article, it is accepted that a maximum horizontal size of an uncertainty ellipse corresponds to an area of a focus generator, and seismic events are thus classified into two groups, earthquakes with nonstiff and stiff foci. Criteria of such a classification are two limits of elastic strain and brittle strain in case of uniaxial (3⋅10–5 or omnidirectional (10–6 compression. The criteria are established from results of analyses of parameters of seismic dislocations and earthquake foci with regard to studies of surface parameters and deformation parameters of fault zones. It is recommendable that the uniaxial compression criterion shall be applied to zones of interaction between tectonic plates, and the unilateral compression criterion shall be applied to low active (interplate areas. Sample cases demonstrate the use of data sets on nonstiff and stiff foci for separate evaluation of magnitude reoccurrence curves, analyses of structured and dissipated seismicity, review of the physical nature of nonlinearity of recurrence curves and conditions of preparation of strong earthquakes. Changes of parameters of the recurrence curves with changes of data collection square areas are considered. Reviewed are changes of parameters of the recurrence curves during preparation for the Japan major earthquake of 11 March 2011 prior to and after the major shock. It is emphasized that it is important to conduct even more detailed geological and geophysical studies and to improve precision and sensitivity of local seismological monitoring networks

  9. Multiscale multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of earthquake magnitude series of Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Xingxing; Lin, Min

    2017-08-01

    The multifractal characteristics of magnitude time series of earthquakes that occurred in Southern California from 1990 to 2010 are studied in this work. A method for the scale division of the magnitude of these earthquakes based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and multifractal analysis is proposed. This method gains a new insight into measuring multifractal properties of the magnitude time series at multiple scales, and it reveals further information about the dynamic seismic behavior. By using EMD, a time series can be decomposed into mode time series that represent different time-frequency components. We find that time-frequency components show long-range correlation with different Hurst exponents by using R / S analysis. Based on the different fractal structures of components, we consider three different scale series: Micro-, Mid- and Macro-scale subsequences, which are superposed and reconstructed by the components. The multifractal properties of the three scale subsequences are analyzed by using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The results show that the three different scale subsequences have various shapes of multifractal spectra and corresponding distinct properties. The Micro-scale subsequence singularity spectrum shows left-skewed, indicating a relative dominance of the lower Hurst exponent; the Mid-scale subsequence has a right-skewed singularity spectrum; the Macro-scale subsequence exhibits the most significant persistence and shows the strongest multifractality.

  10. Investigation of the Calibration Function of Local Earthquake Magnitude (ML) in the Fujian-Taiwan Region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lin Xiankan

    2007-01-01

    The author carefully selected earthquakes with ML =4.0~5.0, 215 occurring in the crust in the Taiwan region. The attenuation characteristics of maximum displacement recorded by the Fujian digital network have been obtained by multi-analysis as follows:logA = 2.07 + 231 /△ (150km ≤⊿ 650km) And the corresponding expression of calibration function is,R(⊿) = 3.45 - 231.1(1/⊿-0.01) (150km ≤⊿≤650km) Then, the author determined the magnitude and its error with the data from the Fujian network using the calibration function brought forward in 1997 and the above formula for 790 earthquakes occurring in the crust in the Taiwan region from September 1997 ~ August 2005. The result indicates that the average error of the network is 0.20 with the former and 0.18 with the latter. The average error is 0.13 with the latter with station correction. Compared with the magnitude determined by Taiwan seismologists, the magnitude value with the former is lower by 0.50 on average and that with the latter is higher by 0.08 on average.

  11. Distribution of Earthquakes as Described by the Generalized Logistic Equation and the Gutenberg-Richter Magnitude-Frequency Formula

    CERN Document Server

    Maslov, Lev A

    2012-01-01

    In this work we developed a new differential equation to study the statistics of earthquake distributions. We call this equation the generalized logistic equation. We used the solution of this equation to analyze earthquake data from the following regions: the Central Atlantic, the Canary Islands, the Magellan Mountains, and the Sea of Japan. Our solution showed excellent correspondence with the observed cumulative distribution of earthquakes for all magnitudes. Historically, the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude formula has been used to study the distribution of earthquakes. However, the Gutenberg-Richter formula is only accurate for large magnitudes. As shown in our analysis, the Gutenberg-Richter formula is a special case of the solution to our generalized logistic equation for large magnitudes.

  12. Morphometric measurement of the faults in Kerman province and its relation with earthquake magnitude in Richter scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa khabazi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Iran is geographically one of the most prone regions to natural disasters especially earthquake in the world such that it is in the seventh place in Asia and the 13th place in the world regarding annual mean of the highest number of population at risk of earthquake. On the other hand, 32% of the area, 70% of the population, and 67% of the gross production of the country are located in regions prone to earthquake. Iran with its several faults is always prone to this terrible natural disaster and it is one of high risk regions regarding the earthquake. There is a mutual relation between fault and earthquake. It means that the number of faults in the region is effective on earthquake occurrence. On the other hand, every earthquake will cause creation of new faults. In present research, the faults in the region will be positioned using satellite images and their dimensions have been measured by GIS advanced techniques. Then, the relationship between fault length and earthquake magnitude will be studied and the amount of human and inhuman losses of earthquake have been estimated. Therefore, the potential and allometric power of a fault such as length, width, and depth of a fault has been estimated in occurrence of earthquake. Then the extension of ruptures resulted from earthquake has been determined in the area of fault and finally the region has been zoned into non-risky, low risk and high risk categories. Results show that there is a direct relationship between fault length and its magnitude in Richter scale. The longer the length of the fault, the earthquake will be more intensive. The highest frequency of earthquake associates to the west and northwest of the region under study meaning where faults are longer and denser.

  13. The 2009 earthquake, magnitude mb 4.8, in the Pantanal Wetlands, west-central Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Fábio L; Assumpção, Marcelo; Facincani, Edna M; França, George S; Assine, Mario L; Paranhos, Antônio C; Gamarra, Roberto M

    2016-09-01

    The main goal of this paper is to characterize the Coxim earthquake occurred in June 15th, 2009 in the Pantanal Basin and to discuss the relationship between its faulting mechanism with the Transbrasiliano Lineament. The earthquake had maximum intensity MM V causing damage in farm houses and was felt in several cities located around, including Campo Grande and Goiânia. The event had an mb 4.8 magnitude and depth was 6 km, i.e., it occurred in the upper crust, within the basement and 5 km below the Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The mechanism, a thrust fault mechanism with lateral motion, was obtained by P-wave first-motion polarities and confirmed by regional waveform modelling. The two nodal planes have orientations (strike/dip) of 300°/55° and 180°/55° and the orientation of the P-axis is approximately NE-SW. The results are similar to the Pantanal earthquake of 1964 with mb 5.4 and NE-SW compressional axis. Both events show that Pantanal Basin is a seismically active area, under compressional stress. The focal mechanism of the 1964 and 2009 events have no nodal plane that could be directly associated with the main SW-NE trending Transbrasiliano system indicating that a direct link of the Transbrasiliano with the seismicity in the Pantanal Basin is improbable.

  14. Scenarios Susceptible to Induced Liquefaction Caused by High Magnitude Earthquakes in Santiago de Cuba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liuska Fernández-Diéguez

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this investigation was to define the zoning of soil liquefaction potential for the Guillermón Moncada Popular Council in the municipality of Santiago de Cuba. The engineering and geological conditions and seismic peculiarities favoring a seism to take place were assessed. The safety factor was re-calculated after determining possible maximum intensity values based on seismic magnitudes that can trigger the soil of the investigated area to liquefy. A scheme of the area´s soil susceptibility to liquefaction was obtained. Based on this result, it was concluded that the sectors that are most likely to experience soil liquefaction if an earthquake of magnitudes ranging between 7,75 and 8 occurs are located towards the center-east of the Popular Council with sandy-clayey soils being predominant. This information is very useful for the location and planning of engineering construction works in the area.

  15. Recurrence quantification analysis for detecting dynamical changes in earthquake magnitude time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Min; Zhao, Gang; Wang, Gang

    2015-12-01

    In this study, recurrence plot (RP) and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) techniques are applied to a magnitude time series composed of seismic events occurred in California region. Using bootstrapping techniques, we give the statistical test of the RQA for detecting dynamical transitions. From our results, we find the different patterns of RPs for magnitude time series before and after the M6.1 Joshua Tree Earthquake. RQA measurements of determinism (DET) and laminarity (LAM) quantifying the order with confidence levels also show peculiar behaviors. It is found that DET and LAM values of the recurrence-based complexity measure significantly increase to a large value at the main shock, and then gradually recovers to a small values after it. The main shock and its aftershock sequences trigger a temporary growth in order and complexity of the deterministic structure in the RP of seismic activity. It implies that the onset of the strong earthquake event is reflected in a sharp and great simultaneous change in RQA measures.

  16. Seismotectonic Condition of Reservoirs Inferred from Magnitudes of Injection-Induced Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinske, C.; Shapiro, S. A.

    2011-12-01

    Hydraulic stimulation operations aimed to enhance the permeability of reservoirs induce fracture shear slippage and fracture dilatation. A potential hazard of the injection-induced seismic activity has so far received less consideration. The hydraulic stimulation of the Basel geothermal reservoir in 2006, however, caused several significant events which were felt by the population (Majer et al., 2007, Häring et al., 2008) leading to the suspension of the project. It had revealed that a more in-depth knowledge regarding the seismic hazard associated with fluid injections is required. A key point for evaluating the seismic hazard is to identify the parameters which define the earthquake magnitude and its frequency. Recently, it was shown that under rather general conditions the probability of a seismic event having a magnitude larger than a given one increases proportionally to the injected fluid mass (Shapiro et al., 2007, Shapiro and Dinske, 2009). The number of earthquakes larger than a given magnitude also depends on the seismotectonic conditions of an injection site. A convenient parameter for the characterization of these conditions is the seismogenic index Σ (Shapiro et al., 2010). It combines four, generally unknown, site-specific seismotectonic quantities. In this study, we continue to comparatively analyze the seismotectonic state of several geothermal as well as non-geothermal reservoir locations using this index. Here we compute the seismogenic index at 8 different reservoir locations (and 15 different injection experiments). We show that the seismogenic index is nearly time-independent. It is clear from our analysis that the seismogenic index has a characteristic range of values for geothermal reservoirs on the one hand, [-4 law are known for a specific location (for instance, from a preceding, short-term injection), then our formalism allows to compute the expected number of induced earthquakes having a magnitude larger than a given one for a known

  17. Maximum Magnitude and Probabilities of Induced Earthquakes in California Geothermal Fields: Applications for a Science-Based Decision Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiser, Deborah Anne

    Induced seismicity is occurring at increasing rates around the country. Brodsky and Lajoie (2013) and others have recognized anthropogenic quakes at a few geothermal fields in California. I use three techniques to assess if there are induced earthquakes in California geothermal fields; there are three sites with clear induced seismicity: Brawley, The Geysers, and Salton Sea. Moderate to strong evidence is found at Casa Diablo, Coso, East Mesa, and Susanville. Little to no evidence is found for Heber and Wendel. I develop a set of tools to reduce or cope with the risk imposed by these earthquakes, and also to address uncertainties through simulations. I test if an earthquake catalog may be bounded by an upper magnitude limit. I address whether the earthquake record during pumping time is consistent with the past earthquake record, or if injection can explain all or some of the earthquakes. I also present ways to assess the probability of future earthquake occurrence based on past records. I summarize current legislation for eight states where induced earthquakes are of concern. Unlike tectonic earthquakes, the hazard from induced earthquakes has the potential to be modified. I discuss direct and indirect mitigation practices. I present a framework with scientific and communication techniques for assessing uncertainty, ultimately allowing more informed decisions to be made.

  18. Active fault slip and potential large magnitude earthquakes within the stable Kazakh Platform (Central Kazakhstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, J.; Walker, R. T.; Abdrakhmatov, K.; Campbell, G.; Mukambayev, A.; Rhodes, E.; Rood, D. H.

    2016-12-01

    The Tien Shan mountains of Central Asia are characterized at the present day by abundant range-bounding E-W thrust faults, and several major NW-SE striking right-lateral faults, which cut across the stable Kazakh Platform terminating at (or within) the Tien Shan. The various E-W thrust faults are associated with significant seismicity over the last few hundred years. In sharp contrast, the NW-SE right-lateral faults are not associated with any major historical earthquakes, and thus it remains unclear if these Paleozoic structures have been reactivated during the Late Cenozoic. The Dzhalair-Naiman fault (DNF) is one such fault, and is comprised of several fault segments striking NW-SE across the Central Kazakh Platform over a distance of 600+ km. Unlike similar NW-SE right-lateral faults in the region (e.g. Talas-Fergana and Dzhungarian faults), the DNF is confined to the Kazakh Platform and does not penetrate into the Tien Shan. Regional GPS velocities indicate slow (Platform suggest that Platform-interior faults, such as the DNF, may have the potential to generate infrequent very large magnitude earthquakes. We investigate the Chokpar segment of the DNF (60+ km long), which lies 60 km north of Bishkek. We use Quaternary dating techniques (IRSL and 10Be exposure dating) to date several abandoned and incised alluvial fans which are now right-laterally displaced across the fault. Stream channels are offset by 30+ m (measured from a stereo Pleiades DEM and GPS survey data), while the terraces through which they cut were abandoned in the Mid-to-Late Holocene, suggesting a relatively high slip rate over the Late Quaternary (higher than expected from regional GPS velocities). However, given the potential for the DNF to slip in very large infrequent earthquakes (with 10+ m coseismic displacements), our slip-rate calculations may also be subject to additional errors related to the low sampling of earthquakes preserved in the young geomorphology. Nevertheless, our results

  19. Earthquake forecasting in Italy, before and after Umbria-Marche seismic sequence 1997. A review of the earthquake occurrence modeling at different spatio-temporal-magnitude scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Marzocchi

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this work is to review the scientific researches carried out before and after the Umbria-Marche sequence related to the earthquake forecasting/prediction in Italy. In particular, I focus the attention on models that aim addressing three main practical questions: was (is Umbria-Marche a region with high probability of occurrence of a destructive earthquake? Was a precursory activity recorded before the mainshock(s? What was our capability to model the spatio-temporal-magnitude evolution of that seismic sequence? The models are reviewed pointing out what we have learned after the Umbria-Marche earthquakes, in terms of physical understanding of earthquake occurrence process, and of improving our capability to forecast earthquakes and to track in real-time seismic sequences.

  20. Field survey of earthquake effects from the magnitude 4.0 southern Maine earthquake of October 16, 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy L. Radakovich,; Alex J. Fergusen,; Boatwright, John

    2016-06-02

    The magnitude 4.0 earthquake that occurred on October 16, 2012, near Hollis Center and Waterboro in southwestern Maine surprised and startled local residents but caused only minor damage. A two-person U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) team was sent to Maine to conduct an intensity survey and document the damage. The only damage we observed was the failure of a chimney and plaster cracks in two buildings in East and North Waterboro, 6 kilometers (km) west of the epicenter. We photographed the damage and interviewed residents to determine the intensity distribution in the epicentral area. The damage and shaking reports are consistent with a maximum Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) of 5–6 for an area 1–8 km west of the epicenter, slightly higher than the maximum Community Decimal Intensity (CDI) of 5 determined by the USGS “Did You Feel It?” Web site. The area of strong shaking in East Waterboro corresponds to updip rupture on a fault plane that dips steeply east. 

  1. The efficacy of support vector machines (SVM) in robust determination of earthquake early warning magnitudes in central Japan

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ramakrushna Reddy; Rajesh R Nair

    2013-10-01

    This work deals with a methodology applied to seismic early warning systems which are designed to provide real-time estimation of the magnitude of an event. We will reappraise the work of Simons et al. (2006), who on the basis of wavelet approach predicted a magnitude error of ±1. We will verify and improve upon the methodology of Simons et al. (2006) by applying an SVM statistical learning machine on the time-scale wavelet decomposition methods. We used the data of 108 events in central Japan with magnitude ranging from 3 to 7.4 recorded at KiK-net network stations, for a source–receiver distance of up to 150 km during the period 1998–2011. We applied a wavelet transform on the seismogram data and calculating scale-dependent threshold wavelet coefficients. These coefficients were then classified into low magnitude and high magnitude events by constructing a maximum margin hyperplane between the two classes, which forms the essence of SVMs. Further, the classified events from both the classes were picked up and linear regressions were plotted to determine the relationship between wavelet coefficient magnitude and earthquake magnitude, which in turn helped us to estimate the earthquake magnitude of an event given its threshold wavelet coefficient. At wavelet scale number 7, we predicted the earthquake magnitude of an event within 2.7 seconds. This means that a magnitude determination is available within 2.7 s after the initial onset of the P-wave. These results shed light on the application of SVM as a way to choose the optimal regression function to estimate the magnitude from a few seconds of an incoming seismogram. This would improve the approaches from Simons et al. (2006) which use an average of the two regression functions to estimate the magnitude.

  2. Exploring earthquake databases for the creation of magnitude-homogeneous catalogues: tools for application on a regional and global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherill, G. A.; Pagani, M.; Garcia, J.

    2016-09-01

    The creation of a magnitude-homogenized catalogue is often one of the most fundamental steps in seismic hazard analysis. The process of homogenizing multiple catalogues of earthquakes into a single unified catalogue typically requires careful appraisal of available bulletins, identification of common events within multiple bulletins and the development and application of empirical models to convert from each catalogue's native scale into the required target. The database of the International Seismological Center (ISC) provides the most exhaustive compilation of records from local bulletins, in addition to its reviewed global bulletin. New open-source tools are developed that can utilize this, or any other compiled database, to explore the relations between earthquake solutions provided by different recording networks, and to build and apply empirical models in order to harmonize magnitude scales for the purpose of creating magnitude-homogeneous earthquake catalogues. These tools are described and their application illustrated in two different contexts. The first is a simple application in the Sub-Saharan Africa region where the spatial coverage and magnitude scales for different local recording networks are compared, and their relation to global magnitude scales explored. In the second application the tools are used on a global scale for the purpose of creating an extended magnitude-homogeneous global earthquake catalogue. Several existing high-quality earthquake databases, such as the ISC-GEM and the ISC Reviewed Bulletins, are harmonized into moment magnitude to form a catalogue of more than 562 840 events. This extended catalogue, while not an appropriate substitute for a locally calibrated analysis, can help in studying global patterns in seismicity and hazard, and is therefore released with the accompanying software.

  3. New approach of determinations of earthquake moment magnitude using near earthquake source duration and maximum displacement amplitude of high frequency energy radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunawan, H.; Puspito, N. T.; Ibrahim, G.; Harjadi, P. J. P. [ITB, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Tecnology (Indonesia); BMKG (Indonesia)

    2012-06-20

    The new approach method to determine the magnitude by using amplitude displacement relationship (A), epicenter distance ({Delta}) and duration of high frequency radiation (t) has been investigated for Tasikmalaya earthquake, on September 2, 2009, and their aftershock. Moment magnitude scale commonly used seismic surface waves with the teleseismic range of the period is greater than 200 seconds or a moment magnitude of the P wave using teleseismic seismogram data and the range of 10-60 seconds. In this research techniques have been developed a new approach to determine the displacement amplitude and duration of high frequency radiation using near earthquake. Determination of the duration of high frequency using half of period of P waves on the seismograms displacement. This is due tothe very complex rupture process in the near earthquake. Seismic data of the P wave mixing with other wave (S wave) before the duration runs out, so it is difficult to separate or determined the final of P-wave. Application of the 68 earthquakes recorded by station of CISI, Garut West Java, the following relationship is obtained: Mw = 0.78 log (A) + 0.83 log {Delta}+ 0.69 log (t) + 6.46 with: A (m), d (km) and t (second). Moment magnitude of this new approach is quite reliable, time processing faster so useful for early warning.

  4. The magnitude of events following a strong earthquake: and a pattern recognition approach applied to Italian seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentili, Stefania; Di Giovambattista, Rita

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we propose an analysis of the earthquake clusters occurred in Italy from 1980 to 2015. In particular, given a strong earthquake, we are interested to identify statistical clues to forecast whether a subsequent strong earthquake will follow. We apply a pattern recognition approach to verify the possible precursors of a following strong earthquake. Part of the analysis is based on the observation of the cluster during the first hours/days after the first large event. The features adopted are, among the others, the number of earthquakes, the radiated energy and the equivalent source area. The other part of the analysis is based on the characteristics of the first strong earthquake, like its magnitude, depth, focal mechanism, the tectonic position of the source zone. The location of the cluster inside the Italia territory is of particular interest. In order to characterize the precursors depending on the cluster type, we used decision trees as classifiers on single precursor separately. The performances of the classification are tested by leave-one-out method. The analysis is done using different time-spans after the first strong earthquake, in order to simulate the increase of information available as time passes during the seismic clusters. The performances are assessed in terms of precision, recall and goodness of the single classifiers and the ROC graph is shown.

  5. Relationship between isoseismal area and magnitude of historical earthquakes in Greece by a hybrid fuzzy neural network method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tselentis, G.-A.; Sokos, E.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we suggest the use of diffusion-neural-networks, (neural networks with intrinsic fuzzy logic abilities) to assess the relationship between isoseismal area and earthquake magnitude for the region of Greece. It is of particular importance to study historical earthquakes for which we often have macroseismic information in the form of isoseisms but it is statistically incomplete to assess magnitudes from an isoseismal area or to train conventional artificial neural networks for magnitude estimation. Fuzzy relationships are developed and used to train a feed forward neural network with a back propagation algorithm to obtain the final relationships. Seismic intensity data from 24 earthquakes in Greece have been used. Special attention is being paid to the incompleteness and contradictory patterns in scanty historical earthquake records. The results show that the proposed processing model is very effective, better than applying classical artificial neural networks since the magnitude macroseismic intensity target function has a strong nonlinearity and in most cases the macroseismic datasets are very small.

  6. Low frequency (<1Hz) Large Magnitude Earthquake Simulations in Central Mexico: the 1985 Michoacan Earthquake and Hypothetical Rupture in the Guerrero Gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez Guzman, L.; Contreras Ruíz Esparza, M.; Aguirre Gonzalez, J. J.; Alcántara Noasco, L.; Quiroz Ramírez, A.

    2012-12-01

    We present the analysis of simulations at low frequency (Valley of Mexico. Mexico's destructive earthquake history bolsters the need for a better understanding regarding the seismic hazard and risk of the region. The Mw=8.0 1985 Michoacan earthquake is among the largest natural disasters that Mexico has faced in the last decades; more than 5000 people died and thousands of structures were damaged (Reinoso and Ordaz, 1999). Thus, estimates on the effects of similar or larger magnitude earthquakes on today's population and infrastructure are important. Moreover, Singh and Mortera (1991) suggest that earthquakes of magnitude 8.1 to 8.4 could take place in the so-called Guerrero Gap, an area adjacent to the region responsible for the 1985 earthquake. In order to improve previous estimations of the ground motion (e.g. Furumura and Singh, 2002) and lay the groundwork for a numerical simulation of a hypothetical Guerrero Gap scenario, we recast the 1985 Michoacan earthquake. We used the inversion by Mendoza and Hartzell (1989) and a 3D velocity model built on the basis of recent investigations in the area, which include a velocity structure of the Valley of Mexico constrained by geotechnical and reflection experiments, and noise tomography, receiver functions, and gravity-based regional models. Our synthetic seismograms were computed using the octree-based finite element tool-chain Hercules (Tu et al., 2006), and are valid up to a frequency of 1 Hz, considering realistic velocities in the Valley of Mexico ( >60 m/s in the very shallow subsurface). We evaluated the model's ability to reproduce the available records using the goodness-of-fit analysis proposed by Mayhew and Olsen (2010). Once the reliablilty of the model was established, we estimated the effects of a large magnitude earthquake in Central Mexico. We built a kinematic rupture for a Mw=8.4 earthquake with the method of Liu et al. (2006) for the Guerrero Gap and computed the ground motion. We summarized our

  7. Statistical Properties of the Immediate Aftershocks of the 15 October 2013 Magnitude 7.1 Earthquake in Bohol, Philippines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Batac Rene C.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The aftershock records of the magnitude 7.1 earthquake that hit the island of Bohol in central Philippines on 15 October 2013 is investigated in the light of previous results for the Philippines using historical earthquakes. Statistics of interevent distances and interevent times between successive aftershocks recorded for the whole month of October 2013 show marked differences from those of historical earthquakes from two Philippine catalogues of varying periods and completeness levels. In particular, the distributions closely follow only the regimes of the historical distributions that were previously attributed to the strong spatio-temporal correlations. The results therefore suggest that these correlated regimes which emerged naturally from the analyses are strongly dominated by the clustering of aftershock events.

  8. Magnitude-based discrimination of man-made seismic events from naturally occurring earthquakes in Utah, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koper, Keith D.; Pechmann, James C.; Burlacu, Relu; Pankow, Kristine L.; Stein, Jared; Hale, J. Mark; Roberson, Paul; McCarter, Michael K.

    2016-10-01

    We investigate using the difference between local (ML) and coda/duration (MC) magnitude to discriminate man-made seismic events from naturally occurring tectonic earthquakes in and around Utah. For 6846 well-located earthquakes in the Utah region, we find that ML-MC is on average 0.44 magnitude units smaller for mining-induced seismicity (MIS) than for tectonic seismicity (TS). Our interpretation of this observation is that MIS occurs within near-surface low-velocity layers that act as a waveguide and preferentially increase coda duration relative to peak amplitude, while the vast majority of TS occurs beneath the near-surface waveguide. A second data set of 3723 confirmed or probable explosions in the Utah region also has significantly lower ML-MC values than TS, likely for the same reason as the MIS. These observations suggest that ML-MC is useful as a depth indicator and could discriminate small explosions and mining-induced earthquakes from deeper, naturally occurring earthquakes at local-to-regional distances.

  9. Estimation of the Demand for Hospital Care After a Possible High-Magnitude Earthquake in the City of Lima, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambarén, Celso; Uyen, Angela; Rodriguez, Miguel

    2017-02-01

    Introduction A model prepared by National Civil Defense (INDECI; Lima, Peru) estimated that an earthquake with an intensity of 8.0 Mw in front of the central coast of Peru would result in 51,019 deaths and 686,105 injured in districts of Metropolitan Lima and Callao. Using this information as a base, a study was designed to determine the characteristics of the demand for treatment in public hospitals and to estimate gaps in care in the hours immediately after such an event. A probabilistic model was designed that included the following variables: demand for hospital care; time of arrival at the hospitals; type of medical treatment; reason for hospital admission; and the need for specialized care like hemodialysis, blood transfusions, and surgical procedures. The values for these variables were obtained through a literature search of the databases of the MEDLINE medical bibliography, the Cochrane and SciELO libraries, and Google Scholar for information on earthquakes over the last 30 years of over magnitude 6.0 on the moment magnitude scale. If a high-magnitude earthquake were to occur in Lima, it was estimated that between 23,328 and 178,387 injured would go to hospitals, of which between 4,666 and 121,303 would require inpatient care, while between 18,662 and 57,084 could be treated as outpatients. It was estimated that there would be an average of 8,768 cases of crush syndrome and 54,217 cases of other health problems. Enough blood would be required for 8,761 wounded in the first 24 hours. Furthermore, it was expected that there would be a deficit of hospital beds and operating theaters due to the high demand. Sudden and violent disasters, such as earthquakes, represent significant challenges for health systems and services. This study shows the deficit of preparation and capacity to respond to a possible high-magnitude earthquake. The study also showed there are not enough resources to face mega-disasters, especially in large cities. Bambarén C , Uyen A

  10. Geotechnical effects of the 2015 magnitude 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake and aftershocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moss, Robb E S; Thompson, Eric; Kieffer, D Scott; Tiwari, Binod; Hashash, Youssef M A; Acharya, Indra; Adhikari, Basanta; Asimaki, Domniki; Clahan, Kevin B.; Collins, Brian D.; Dahal, Sachindra; Jibson, Randall W.; Khadka, Diwakar; Macdonald, Amy; Madugo, Chris L M; Mason, H Benjamin; Pehlivan, Menzer; Rayamajhi, Deepak; Uprety, Sital

    2015-01-01

    This article summarizes the geotechnical effects of the 25 April 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake and aftershocks, as documented by a reconnaissance team that undertook a broad engineering and scientific assessment of the damage and collected perishable data for future analysis. Brief descriptions are provided of ground shaking, surface fault rupture, landsliding, soil failure, and infrastructure performance. The goal of this reconnaissance effort, led by Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance, is to learn from earthquakes and mitigate hazards in future earthquakes.

  11. Improving Earthquake and Explosion Discrimination by Using Love and Rayleigh Wave Magnitudes (Postprint) Annual Report 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-22

    Seismology Data Management Center (DMC), corrected for the instrument response to displacement in nanometers, and rotated to transverse, radial, and...estimated in the a) Middle East, b) Korean Peninsula region, and in c) central Italy . Figure 3. Ms(VMAX)-Love versus Ms (VMAX)- Rayleigh for...earthquakes in the a) Middle East, b) Korean Peninsula region, and in c) central Italy . The third dataset focused on the damaging L’Aquila earthquake (6

  12. Moderate-magnitude earthquakes induced by magma reservoir inflation at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wauthier, Christelle; Roman, Diana C.; Poland, Michael P.

    2013-01-01

    Although volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes often occur in response to magma intrusion, it is rare for them to have magnitudes larger than ~M4. On 24 May 2007, two shallow M4+ earthquakes occurred beneath the upper part of the east rift zone of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i. An integrated analysis of geodetic, seismic, and field data, together with Coulomb stress modeling, demonstrates that the earthquakes occurred due to strike-slip motion on pre-existing faults that bound Kīlauea Caldera to the southeast and that the pressurization of Kīlauea's summit magma system may have been sufficient to promote faulting. For the first time, we infer a plausible origin to generate rare moderate-magnitude VTs at Kīlauea by reactivation of suitably oriented pre-existing caldera-bounding faults. Rare moderate- to large-magnitude VTs at Kīlauea and other volcanoes can therefore result from reactivation of existing fault planes due to stresses induced by magmatic processes.

  13. Incorporating Love- and Rayleigh-wave magnitudes, unequal earthquake and explosion variance assumptions and interstation complexity for improved event screening

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Dale N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bonner, Jessie L [WESTON GEOPHYSICAL; Stroujkova, Anastasia [WESTON GEOPHYSICAL; Shumway, Robert [UC/DAVIS; Russell, David R [AFTAC

    2009-01-01

    Our objective is to improve seismic event screening using the properties of surface waves, We are accomplishing this through (1) the development of a Love-wave magnitude formula that is complementary to the Russell (2006) formula for Rayleigh waves and (2) quantifying differences in complexities and magnitude variances for earthquake and explosion-generated surface waves. We have applied the M{sub s} (VMAX) analysis (Bonner et al., 2006) using both Love and Rayleigh waves to events in the Middle East and Korean Peninsula, For the Middle East dataset consisting of approximately 100 events, the Love M{sub s} (VMAX) is greater than the Rayleigh M{sub s} (VMAX) estimated for individual stations for the majority of the events and azimuths, with the exception of the measurements for the smaller events from European stations to the northeast. It is unclear whether these smaller events suffer from magnitude bias for the Love waves or whether the paths, which include the Caspian and Mediterranean, have variable attenuation for Love and Rayleigh waves. For the Korean Peninsula, we have estimated Rayleigh- and Love-wave magnitudes for 31 earthquakes and two nuclear explosions, including the 25 May 2009 event. For 25 of the earthquakes, the network-averaged Love-wave magnitude is larger than the Rayleigh-wave estimate. For the 2009 nuclear explosion, the Love-wave M{sub s} (VMAX) was 3.1 while the Rayleigh-wave magnitude was 3.6. We are also utilizing the potential of observed variances in M{sub s} estimates that differ significantly in earthquake and explosion populations. We have considered two possible methods for incorporating unequal variances into the discrimination problem and compared the performance of various approaches on a population of 73 western United States earthquakes and 131 Nevada Test Site explosions. The approach proposes replacing the M{sub s} component by M{sub s} + a* {sigma}, where {sigma} denotes the interstation standard deviation obtained from the

  14. Database of potential sources for earthquakes larger than magnitude 6 in Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1996-01-01

    The Northern California Earthquake Potential (NCEP) working group, composed of many contributors and reviewers in industry, academia and government, has pooled its collective expertise and knowledge of regional tectonics to identify potential sources of large earthquakes in northern California. We have created a map and database of active faults, both surficial and buried, that forms the basis for the northern California portion of the national map of probabilistic seismic hazard. The database contains 62 potential sources, including fault segments and areally distributed zones. The working group has integrated constraints from broadly based plate tectonic and VLBI models with local geologic slip rates, geodetic strain rate, and microseismicity. Our earthquake source database derives from a scientific consensus that accounts for conflict in the diverse data. Our preliminary product, as described in this report brings to light many gaps in the data, including a need for better information on the proportion of deformation in fault systems that is aseismic.

  15. New Approach to the Characterization of Mmax and of the Tail of the Distribution of Earthquake Magnitudes

    CERN Document Server

    Pisarenko, V F; Sornette, A; Sornette, D

    2007-01-01

    We develop a new method for the statistical esitmation of the tail of the distribution of earthquake sizes recorded in the Worldwide Harvard catalog of seismic moments converted to mW-magnitudes (1977-2004 and 1977-2006). We show that using the set of maximum magnitudes (the set of T-maxima) in windows of duration T days provides a significant improvement over existing methods, in particular (i) by minimizing the negative impact of time-clustering of foreshock / main shock /aftershock sequences in the estimation of the tail of the magnitude distribution, and (ii) by providing via a simulation method reliable estimates of the biases in the Moment estimation procedure (which turns out to be more efficient than the Maximum Likelihood estimation). Using a simulation method, we have determined the optimal window size of the T-maxima to be T=500 days. We have estimated the following quantiles of the distribution of T-maxima of earthquake magnitudes for the whole period 1977-2006: Q_{0.16}(Mmax)=9.3, Q_{0.5}(Mmax)=9...

  16. Slip rate and slip magnitudes of past earthquakes along the Bogd left-lateral strike-slip fault (Mongolia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prentice, Carol S.; Rizza, M.; Ritz, J.F.; Baucher, R.; Vassallo, R.; Mahan, S.

    2011-01-01

    We carried out morphotectonic studies along the left-lateral strike-slip Bogd Fault, the principal structure involved in the Gobi-Altay earthquake of 1957 December 4 (published magnitudes range from 7.8 to 8.3). The Bogd Fault is 260 km long and can be subdivided into five main geometric segments, based on variation in strike direction. West to East these segments are, respectively: the West Ih Bogd (WIB), The North Ih Bogd (NIB), the West Ih Bogd (WIB), the West Baga Bogd (WBB) and the East Baga Bogd (EBB) segments. Morphological analysis of offset streams, ridges and alluvial fans—particularly well preserved in the arid environment of the Gobi region—allows evaluation of late Quaternary slip rates along the different faults segments. In this paper, we measure slip rates over the past 200 ka at four sites distributed across the three western segments of the Bogd Fault. Our results show that the left-lateral slip rate is∼1 mm yr–1 along the WIB and EIB segments and∼0.5 mm yr–1 along the NIB segment. These variations are consistent with the restraining bend geometry of the Bogd Fault. Our study also provides additional estimates of the horizontal offset associated with the 1957 earthquake along the western part of the Bogd rupture, complementing previously published studies. We show that the mean horizontal offset associated with the 1957 earthquake decreases progressively from 5.2 m in the west to 2.0 m in the east, reflecting the progressive change of kinematic style from pure left-lateral strike-slip faulting to left-lateral-reverse faulting. Along the three western segments, we measure cumulative displacements that are multiples of the 1957 coseismic offset, which may be consistent with a characteristic slip. Moreover, using these data, we re-estimate the moment magnitude of the Gobi-Altay earthquake at Mw 7.78–7.95. Combining our slip rate estimates and the slip distribution per event we also determined a mean recurrence interval of∼2500

  17. Source Parameters of Large Magnitude Subduction Zone Earthquakes Along Oaxaca, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fannon, M. L.; Bilek, S. L.

    2014-12-01

    Subduction zones are host to temporally and spatially varying seismogenic activity including, megathrust earthquakes, slow slip events (SSE), nonvolcanic tremor (NVT), and ultra-slow velocity layers (USL). We explore these variations by determining source parameters for large earthquakes (M > 5.5) along the Oaxaca segment of the Mexico subduction zone, an area encompasses the wide range of activity noted above. We use waveform data for 36 earthquakes that occurred between January 1, 1990 to June 1, 2014, obtained from the IRIS DMC, generate synthetic Green's functions for the available stations, and deconvolve these from the ­­­observed records to determine a source time function for each event. From these source time functions, we measured rupture durations and scaled these by the cube root to calculate the normalized duration for each event. Within our dataset, four events located updip from the SSE, USL, and NVT areas have longer rupture durations than the other events in this analysis. Two of these four events, along with one other event, are located within the SSE and NVT areas. The results in this study show that large earthquakes just updip from SSE and NVT have slower rupture characteristics than other events along the subduction zone not adjacent to SSE, USL, and NVT zones. Based on our results, we suggest a transitional zone for the seismic behavior rather than a distinct change at a particular depth. This study will help aid in understanding seismogenic behavior that occurs along subduction zones and the rupture characteristics of earthquakes near areas of slow slip processes.

  18. Non-extensive statistical physics analysis of earthquake magnitude sequences in North Aegean Trough, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadakis, Giorgos; Vallianatos, Filippos

    2017-06-01

    In a recent study, Papadakis et al. (Physica A 456: 135-144, 2016) investigate seismicity in Greece, using the non-extensive statistical physics formalism. Moreover, these authors examine the spatial distribution of the non-extensive parameter q M and show that for shallow seismicity, increase of q M coincides with strong events. However, their study also reveals low q M values along the North Aegean Trough, despite the presence of strong events during 1976-2009. Consequently, the present study further examines the temporal behaviour of parameters q M and A, to reveal their relation with the evolution of the earthquake sequence. Through temporal examination of these parameters, we aim to show that the seismogenic system of the North Aegean Trough presents high degree of interactions after strong earthquakes during the studied period. Our findings indicate that increase of q M signifies the existence of long-range correlations. If its value does not significantly decrease after a strong earthquake (i.e. M ≥ 5) then the studied area has not reached the state of equilibrium.

  19. Do moderate magnitude earthquake generate seismically induced ground effects? The case study of the M w = 5.16, 29th December 2013 Matese earthquake (southern Apennines, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valente, Ettore; Ascione, A.; Ciotoli, G.; Cozzolino, M.; Porfido, S.; Sciarra, A.

    2017-06-01

    Seismically induced ground effects characterize moderate to high magnitude seismic events, whereas they are not so common during seismic sequences of low to moderate magnitude. A low to moderate magnitude seismic sequence with a M w = 5.16 ± 0.07 main event occurred from December 2013 to February 2014 in the Matese ridge area, in the southern Apennines mountain chain. In the epicentral area of the M w = 5.16 main event, which happened on December 29th 2013 in the southeastern part of the Matese ridge, field surveys combined with information from local people and reports allowed the recognition of several earthquake-induced ground effects. Such ground effects include landslides, hydrological variations in local springs, gas flux, and a flame that was observed around the main shock epicentre. A coseismic rupture was identified in the SW fault scarp of a small-sized intermontane basin (Mt. Airola basin). To detect the nature of the coseismic rupture, detail scale geological and geomorphological investigations, combined with geoelectrical and soil gas prospections, were carried out. Such a multidisciplinary study, besides allowing reconstruction of the surface and subsurface architecture of the Mt. Airola basin, and suggesting the occurrence of an active fault at the SW boundary of such basin, points to the gravitational nature of the coseismic ground rupture. Based on typology and spatial distribution of the ground effects, an intensity I = VII-VIII is estimated for the M w = 5.16 earthquake according to the ESI-07 scale, which affected an area of at least 90 km2.

  20. Magnitude-dependent epidemic-type aftershock sequences model for earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spassiani, Ilaria; Sebastiani, Giovanni

    2016-04-01

    We propose a version of the pure temporal epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) model: the ETAS model with correlated magnitudes. As for the standard case, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law to be the probability density for the magnitudes of the background events. Instead, the magnitude of the triggered shocks is assumed to be probabilistically dependent on that of the relative mother events. This probabilistic dependence is motivated by some recent works in the literature and by the results of a statistical analysis made on some seismic catalogs [Spassiani and Sebastiani, J. Geophys. Res. 121, 903 (2016), 10.1002/2015JB012398]. On the basis of the experimental evidences obtained in the latter paper for the real catalogs, we theoretically derive the probability density function for the magnitudes of the triggered shocks proposed in Spassiani and Sebastiani and there used for the analysis of two simulated catalogs. To this aim, we impose a fundamental condition: averaging over all the magnitudes of the mother events, we must obtain again the Gutenberg-Richter law. This ensures the validity of this law at any event's generation when ignoring past seismicity. The ETAS model with correlated magnitudes is then theoretically analyzed here. In particular, we use the tool of the probability generating function and the Palm theory, in order to derive an approximation of the probability of zero events in a small time interval and to interpret the results in terms of the interevent time between consecutive shocks, the latter being a very useful random variable in the assessment of seismic hazard.

  1. Global Correlation between the Size of Subduction Earthquakes and the Magnitude of Crustal Normal Fault Aftershocks in the Forearc

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aron, F.; Allmendinger, R. W.; Jensen Siles, E.

    2013-12-01

    subduction event. Given the relatively large magnitude and shallow depth of these triggered earthquakes, understanding their behavior in the context of the subduction seismic cycle becomes important for seismic hazards evaluation. In general, the Mw 7.0 crustal events in both Chile and Japan struck in sparsely populated areas with relatively good building codes and basic infrastructure, though there was a triggered normal fault with surface rupture just 60 km south from the Fukushima nuclear plant. However, as population increases with concomitant land use and development, large crustal aftershocks pose a significant hazard to critical infrastructure. This documented correlation between size of the main shock and that of the intraplate aftershocks, along with field studies of these faults, suggests that the forearc structures should be incorporated in any seismic hazard assessment of subduction zones regions.

  2. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Small Business Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of small businesses in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each business establishment size category to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the earthquake on small businesses. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by business establishment size.

  3. Variability of sporadic E-layer semi transparency (foEs-fbEswith magnitude and distance from earthquake epicenters to vertical sounding stations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Liperovskaya

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Variations of the Es-layer semi transparency co-efficient were analyzed for more than 100 earthquakes with magnitudes M > 4 and depths h Es-layer X = (foEs – fbEs/fbEs can characterize, for thin layers, the presence of small scale plasma turbulence. It is shown that the turbulence level decreases by ~ 10% during three days before earthquakes probably due to the heating of the atmosphere. On the contrary, the turbulence level increases by the same value from one to three days after the shocks. For earthquakes with magnitudes M > 5 the effect exists at distances up to 300 km from the epicenters. The effect could also exist for weak (M ~ 4 and shallow (depth < 50 km earthquakes at a distance smaller than 200 km from the epicenters.

  4. Joint approach combining damage and paleoseismology observations constrains the 1714 A.D. Bhutan earthquake at magnitude 8 ± 0.5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetényi, György; Le Roux-Mallouf, Romain; Berthet, Théo.; Cattin, Rodolphe; Cauzzi, Carlo; Phuntsho, Karma; Grolimund, Remo

    2016-10-01

    The region of Bhutan is thought to be the only segment of the Himalayas not having experienced a major earthquake over the past half millennium. A proposed explanation for this apparent seismic gap is partial accommodation of the India-Asia convergence further south across the Shillong Plateau, yet the seismic behavior of the Himalayan megathrust in Bhutan is unknown. Here we present historical documents from the region reporting on an earthquake in 1714 A.D. and geological evidence of surface rupture to constrain the latest large event in this area. We compute various earthquake scenarios using empirical scaling relationships relating magnitude with intensity, source location and rupture geometry. Our results constrain the 1714 A.D. earthquake to have ruptured the megathrust in Bhutan, most likely during a M7.5-8.5 event. This finding reclassifies the apparent seismic gap to a former information gap and implies that the entire Himalayan arc has a high level of earthquake potential.

  5. Rapid determination of P wave-based energy magnitude: Insights on source parameter scaling of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picozzi, Matteo; Bindi, Dino; Brondi, Piero; Di Giacomo, Domenico; Parolai, Stefano; Zollo, Aldo

    2017-05-01

    We propose a P wave based procedure for the rapid estimation of the radiated seismic energy, and a novel relationship for obtaining an energy-based local magnitude (MLe) measure of the earthquake size. We apply the new procedure to the seismic sequence that struck Central Italy in 2016. Scaling relationships involving seismic moment and radiated energy are discussed for the Mw 6.0 Amatrice, Mw 5.9 Ussita, and Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquakes, including 35 ML > 4 aftershocks. The Mw 6.0 Amatrice earthquake shows the highest apparent stress, and the observed differences among the three main events highlight the dynamic heterogeneity with which large earthquakes can occur in Central Italy. Differences between estimates of MLe and Mw allows identification of events which are characterized by a higher proportion of energy being transferred to seismic waves, providing important real-time indications of earthquakes shaking potential.

  6. Crustal seismicity and the earthquake catalog maximum moment magnitudes (Mcmax) in stable continental regions (SCRs): correlation with the seismic velocity of the lithosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, Walter D.; Ritsema, Jeroen; Hwang, Yong Keun

    2012-01-01

    A joint analysis of global seismicity and seismic tomography indicates that the seismic potential of continental intraplate regions is correlated with the seismic properties of the lithosphere. Archean and Early Proterozoic cratons with cold, stable continental lithospheric roots have fewer crustal earthquakes and a lower maximum earthquake catalog moment magnitude (Mcmax). The geographic distribution of thick lithospheric roots is inferred from the global seismic model S40RTS that displays shear-velocity perturbations (δVS) relative to the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM). We compare δVS at a depth of 175 km with the locations and moment magnitudes (Mw) of intraplate earthquakes in the crust (Schulte and Mooney, 2005). Many intraplate earthquakes concentrate around the pronounced lateral gradients in lithospheric thickness that surround the cratons and few earthquakes occur within cratonic interiors. Globally, 27% of stable continental lithosphere is underlain by δVS≥3.0%, yet only 6.5% of crustal earthquakes with Mw>4.5 occur above these regions with thick lithosphere. No earthquakes in our catalog with Mw>6 have occurred above mantle lithosphere with δVS>3.5%, although such lithosphere comprises 19% of stable continental regions. Thus, for cratonic interiors with seismically determined thick lithosphere (1) there is a significant decrease in the number of crustal earthquakes, and (2) the maximum moment magnitude found in the earthquake catalog is Mcmax=6.0. We attribute these observations to higher lithospheric strength beneath cratonic interiors due to lower temperatures and dehydration in both the lower crust and the highly depleted lithospheric root.

  7. Rapid determination of P-wave-based Energy Magnitude: Insights on source parameter scaling of the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picozzi, Matteo; Bindi, Dino; Brondi, Piero; Di Giacomo, Domenico; Parolai, Stefano; Zollo, Aldo

    2017-04-01

    In this study, we proposed a novel methodology for the rapid estimation of the earthquake size from the seismic radiated energy. Two relationships have been calibrated using recordings from 29 earthquakes of the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Emilia seismic sequences in Italy. The first relation allows obtaining seismic radiated energy ER estimates using as proxy the time integral of squared P-waves velocities measured over vertical components, including regional attributes for describing the attenuation with distance. The second relation is a regression between the local magnitude and the radiated energy, which allows defining an energy-based local magnitude (MLe) compatible with ML for small earthquakes. We have applied the new procedure to the seismic sequence that struck central Italy in 2016. Scaling relationships involving seismic moment and radiated energy are discussed considering the Mw 6.0 Amatrice, Mw 5.9 Ussita and Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquakes and their ML >4 aftershocks, in total 38 events. The Mw 6.0 Amatrice earthquake presents the highest apparent stress, and the observed differences among the three larger shocks highlight the dynamic heterogeneity with which large earthquakes can occur in central Italy. Differences between MLe and Mw measures allows to identify events characterized by a higher amount of energy transferred to seismic waves, providing important constraints for the real-time evaluation of an earthquake shaking potential.

  8. Nucleation process of magnitude 2 repeating earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault predicted by rate-and-state fault models with SAFOD drill core data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Carpenter, Brett M.; Nielsen, Stefan B.

    2017-01-01

    Recent laboratory shear-slip experiments conducted on a nominally flat frictional interface reported the intriguing details of a two-phase nucleation of stick-slip motion that precedes the dynamic rupture propagation. This behavior was subsequently reproduced by a physics-based model incorporating laboratory-derived rate-and-state friction laws. However, applying the laboratory and theoretical results to the nucleation of crustal earthquakes remains challenging due to poorly constrained physical and friction properties of fault zone rocks at seismogenic depths. Here we apply the same physics-based model to simulate the nucleation process of crustal earthquakes using unique data acquired during the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) experiment and new and existing measurements of friction properties of SAFOD drill core samples. Using this well-constrained model, we predict what the nucleation phase will look like for magnitude ˜2 repeating earthquakes on segments of the San Andreas Fault at a 2.8 km depth. We find that despite up to 3 orders of magnitude difference in the physical and friction parameters and stress conditions, the behavior of the modeled nucleation is qualitatively similar to that of laboratory earthquakes, with the nucleation consisting of two distinct phases. Our results further suggest that precursory slow slip associated with the earthquake nucleation phase may be observable in the hours before the occurrence of the magnitude ˜2 earthquakes by strain measurements close (a few hundred meters) to the hypocenter, in a position reached by the existing borehole.

  9. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Labor Market Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of economic Super Sectors in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each Super Sector to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the scenario earthquake on economic sectors and provides a baseline for the indirect and interactive analysis of an input-output model of the regional economy. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by the North American Industry Classification System. According to the analysis results, nearly 225,000 business

  10. Characterization of the tail of the distribution of earthquake magnitudes by combining the GEV and GPD descriptions of Extreme Value Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Pisarenko, V F; Sornette, D; Rodkin, M V

    2008-01-01

    We present a generic and powerful approach to study the statistics of extreme phenomena (meteorology, finance, biology...) that we apply to the statistical estimation of the tail of the distribution of earthquake sizes. The chief innovation is to combine the two main limit theorems of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) that allow us to derive the distribution of T-maxima (maximum magnitude occurring in sequential time intervals of duration T) for arbitrary T. We propose a method for the estimation of the unknown parameters involved in the two limit theorems corresponding to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) and to the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). We establish the direct relations between the parameters of these distributions, which permit to evaluate the distribution of the T-maxima for arbitrary T. The duality between the GEV and GPD provides a new way to check the consistency of the estimation of the tail characteristics of the distribution of earthquake magnitudes for earthquake occurring ...

  11. Giant seismites and megablock uplift in the East African Rift: evidence for Late Pleistocene large magnitude earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbert-Wolf, Hannah Louise; Roberts, Eric M

    2015-01-01

    In lieu of comprehensive instrumental seismic monitoring, short historical records, and limited fault trench investigations for many seismically active areas, the sedimentary record provides important archives of seismicity in the form of preserved horizons of soft-sediment deformation features, termed seismites. Here we report on extensive seismites in the Late Quaternary-Recent (≤ ~ 28,000 years BP) alluvial and lacustrine strata of the Rukwa Rift Basin, a segment of the Western Branch of the East African Rift System. We document examples of the most highly deformed sediments in shallow, subsurface strata close to the regional capital of Mbeya, Tanzania. This includes a remarkable, clastic 'megablock complex' that preserves remobilized sediment below vertically displaced blocks of intact strata (megablocks), some in excess of 20 m-wide. Documentation of these seismites expands the database of seismogenic sedimentary structures, and attests to large magnitude, Late Pleistocene-Recent earthquakes along the Western Branch of the East African Rift System. Understanding how seismicity deforms near-surface sediments is critical for predicting and preparing for modern seismic hazards, especially along the East African Rift and other tectonically active, developing regions.

  12. Comment on Pisarenko et al. "Characterization of the Tail of the Distribution of Earthquake Magnitudes by Combining the GEV and GPD Descriptions of Extreme Value Theory"

    CERN Document Server

    Raschke, Mathias

    2015-01-01

    In this short note, I comment on the research of Pisarenko et al. (2014) regarding the extreme value theory and statistics in case of earthquake magnitudes. The link between the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as an asymptotic model for the block maxima of a random variable and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) as a model for the peak over thresholds (POT) of the same random variable is presented more clearly. Pisarenko et al. (2014) have inappropriately neglected that the approximations by GEVD and GPD work only asymptotically in most cases. This applies particularly for the truncated exponential distribution (TED), being a popular distribution model for earthquake magnitudes. I explain why the classical models and methods of the extreme value theory and statistics do not work well for truncated exponential distributions. As a consequence, the classical methods should be used for the estimation of the upper bound magnitude and corresponding parameters. Furthermore, different issues of s...

  13. Generalized multidimensional earthquake frequency distributions consistent with Non-Extensive Statistical Physics: An appraisal of the universality in the interdependence of magnitude, interevent time and interevent distance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzanis, Andreas; Vallianatos, Philippos; Efstathiou, Angeliki

    2013-04-01

    It is well known that earthquake frequency is related to earthquake magnitude via a simple linear relationship of the form logN = a - bM, where N is the number of earthquakes in a specified time interval; this is the famous Gutenberg - Richter (G-R) law. The generally accepted interpretation of the G-R law is that it expresses the statistical behaviour of a fractal active tectonic grain (active faulting). The relationship between the constant b and the fractal dimension of the tectonic grain has been demonstrated in various ways. The story told by the G-R law is, nevertheless, incomplete. It is now accepted that the active tectonic grain comprises a critical complex system, although it hasn't yet been established whether it is stationary (Self-Organized Critical), evolutionary (Self-Organizing Critical), or a time-varying blend of both. At any rate, critical systems are characterized by complexity and strong interactions between near and distant neighbours. This, in turn, implies that the self-organization of earthquake occurrence should be manifested by certain statistical behaviour of its temporal and spatial dependence. A strong line of evidence suggests that G-R law is a limiting case of a more general frequency-magnitude distribution, which is properly expressed in terms of Non-Extensive Statistical Physics (NESP) on the basis of the Tsallis entropy; this is a context natural and particularly suitable for the description of complex systems. A measure of temporal dependence in earthquake occurrence is the time lapsed between consecutive events above a magnitude threshold over a given area (interevent time). A corresponding measure of spatial dependence is the hypocentral distance between consecutive events above a magnitude threshold over a given area (interevent distance). The statistics of earthquake frequency vs. interevent time have been studied by several researchers and have been shown to comply with the predictions of the NESP formalism. There's also

  14. Micro-seismicity in the Gulf of Cadiz: Is there a link between micro-seismicity, high magnitude earthquakes and active faults?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Sónia; Terrinha, Pedro; Matias, Luis; Duarte, João C.; Roque, Cristina; Ranero, César R.; Geissler, Wolfram H.; Zitellini, Nevio

    2017-10-01

    The Gulf of Cadiz seismicity is characterized by persistent low to intermediate magnitude earthquakes, occasionally punctuated by high magnitude events such as the M 8.7 1755 Great Lisbon earthquake and the M = 7.9 event of February 28th, 1969. Micro-seismicity was recorded during 11 months by a temporary network of 25 ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) in an area of high seismic activity, encompassing the potential source areas of the mentioned large magnitude earthquakes. We combined micro-seismicity analysis with processing and interpretation of deep crustal seismic reflection profiles and available refraction data to investigate the possible tectonic control of the seismicity in the Gulf of Cadiz area. Three controlling mechanisms are explored: i) active tectonic structures, ii) transitions between different lithospheric domains and inherited Mesozoic structures, and iii) fault weakening mechanisms. Our results show that micro-seismicity is mostly located in the upper mantle and is associated with tectonic inversion of extensional rift structures and to the transition between different lithospheric/rheological domains. Even though the crustal structure is well imaged in the seismic profiles and in the bathymetry, crustal faults show low to negligible seismic activity. A possible explanation for this is that the crustal thrusts are thin-skinned structures rooting in relatively shallow sub-horizontal décollements associated with (aseismic) serpentinization levels at the top of the lithospheric mantle. Therefore, co-seismic slip along crustal thrusts may only occur during large magnitude events, while for most of the inter-seismic cycle these thrusts remain locked, or slip aseismically. We further speculate that high magnitude earthquake's ruptures may only nucleate in the lithospheric mantle and then propagate into the crust across the serpentinized layers.

  15. Diking-induced moderate-magnitude earthquakes on a youthful rift border fault: The 2002 Nyiragongo-Kalehe sequence, D.R. Congo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wauthier, C.; Smets, B.; Keir, D.

    2015-12-01

    On 24 October 2002, Mw 6.2 earthquake occurred in the central part of the Lake Kivu basin, Western Branch of the East African Rift. This is the largest event recorded in the Lake Kivu area since 1900. An integrated analysis of radar interferometry (InSAR), seismic and geological data, demonstrates that the earthquake occurred due to normal-slip motion on a major preexisting east-dipping rift border fault. A Coulomb stress analysis suggests that diking events, such as the January 2002 dike intrusion, could promote faulting on the western border faults of the rift in the central part of Lake Kivu. We thus interpret that dike-induced stress changes can cause moderate to large-magnitude earthquakes on major border faults during continental rifting. Continental extension processes appear complex in the Lake Kivu basin, requiring the use of a hybrid model of strain accommodation and partitioning in the East African Rift.

  16. The 1170 and 1202 CE Dead Sea Rift earthquakes and long-term magnitude distribution of the Dead Sea Fault zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hough, S.E.; Avni, R.

    2009-01-01

    In combination with the historical record, paleoseismic investigations have provided a record of large earthquakes in the Dead Sea Rift that extends back over 1500 years. Analysis of macroseismic effects can help refine magnitude estimates for large historical events. In this study we consider the detailed intensity distributions for two large events, in 1170 CE and 1202 CE, as determined from careful reinterpretation of available historical accounts, using the 1927 Jericho earthquake as a guide in their interpretation. In the absence of an intensity attenuation relationship for the Dead Sea region, we use the 1927 Jericho earthquake to develop a preliminary relationship based on a modification of the relationships developed in other regions. Using this relation, we estimate M7.6 for the 1202 earthquake and M6.6 for the 1170 earthquake. The uncertainties for both estimates are large and difficult to quantify with precision. The large uncertainties illustrate the critical need to develop a regional intensity attenuation relation. We further consider the distribution of magnitudes in the historic record and show that it is consistent with a b-value distribution with a b-value of 1. Considering the entire Dead Sea Rift zone, we show that the seismic moment release rate over the past 1500 years is sufficient, within the uncertainties of the data, to account for the plate tectonic strain rate along the plate boundary. The results reveal that an earthquake of M7.8 is expected within the zone on average every 1000 years. ?? 2011 Science From Israel/LPPLtd.

  17. Estimation of seismic moments from local magnitudes and coda durations for the Cairo earthquake aftershocks recorded at Kottamyia (KEG Broadband station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Abdelwahed

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available The spectral analysis of fifty-five KEG VBB records from the October 12, 1992 Cairo earthquake source region was performed to obtain the seismic moment. We obtained this parameter in turn to develop empirical local magnitude (ML, seismic moment (Mo, coda duration (D relations for that region. In this study the data consist of Lg-waves on the vertical component seismograms for the recorded earthquakes with ML ranging from 1.7 to 4.7. The derived empirical relation between the seismic moment (Mo and magnitude ML for the aftershocks sequence with 1.7 = ML < 3.5 is Log (Mo = (0.96 ± 0.05 ML + (17.88 ± 0.13. We found a correlation between the coda duration (D and Log of the moment (Log (Mo as follows: Log (Mo = (2.35 ± 0.27 Log (D + (16.33 ± 0.48.

  18. Synthesis of magnitude and focal mechanism computations for the M ≥ 4.5 earthquakes in France for the period 1995 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dufumier, Hugues

    This paper proposes a synthesis of thestudies made in terms of source parametersevaluation for the last earthquakes oflocal magnitude greater than 4.5 whichoccurred in or nearby France during thelast five years. Focal mechanisms andseismic moments have been computed for thethree most important events, largely feltby the population: St Paul de Fenouillet(February 18th 1996, ML 5.6),Annecy-Epagny (July 15th 1996, ML5.2) and St-Béat (October 4th1999, ML 4.8). These focal mechanismshave been obtained either by regionalmoment tensor inversion or from firstmotion polarities and are compared withcomplementary studies made on theseearthquakes. In addition, for the otherearthquakes of local magnitude greater than4.5 which occurred nearby French borderssince the beginning of the recording ofbroadband data by the RéNaSS(Réseau National de SurveillanceSismique, French Seismological Survey) inmid-1995, several magnitude calculationsconcerning the following earthquakes arepresented: Pamplona (25/2/1996, ML4.7), Aoste (31/03/1996, ML 4.6),Imperia (24/2/1997, ML 4.5),Barcelonette (31/10/1997, ML 4.8),Pamplona (27/10/1998, ML 4.9), andBonifacio (26/4/2000, ML 4.5). Localmagnitudes are usually higher thanthe Mb magnitudes reported by the PDE(Preliminary Determination of Epicenters),while the extension of the Msz scale toregional magnitudes and the Mw magnitudesderived from seismic moments give smallervalues. The relative importance of thevarious earthquakes in terms of surfacewave magnitude or seismic moment does notalways agree with that implied by localmagnitudes.

  19. Do submarine landslides and turbidites provide a faithful record of large magnitude earthquakes in the Western Mediterranean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clare, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Large earthquakes and associated tsunamis pose a potential risk to coastal communities. Earthquakes may trigger submarine landslides that mix with surrounding water to produce turbidity currents. Recent studies offshore Algeria have shown that earthquake-triggered turbidity currents can break important communication cables. If large earthquakes reliably trigger landslides and turbidity currents, then their deposits can be used as a long-term record to understand temporal trends in earthquake activity. It is important to understand in which settings this approach can be applied. We provide some suggestions for future Mediterranean palaeoseismic studies, based on learnings from three sites. Two long piston cores from the Balearic Abyssal Plain provide long-term (sensitive to earthquake-triggered slope failures and is less suitable for future palaeoseismology investigations. Landslide events identified from contourite drift and mound sequences in the Tyrrhenian Sea indicate a regular temporal spacing. No landslides are identified over the last 10,000 years, however, and the inferred recurrence between events is in the order of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. The preconditioning agents and triggers for failures are interpreted to be related to oversteepening of depositional mounds, current-related erosion and geotechnical properties of contourite sediments, rather than earthquake effects. Major hiatuses (up to 2 Myr) result in local incompleteness of the depositional record. Therefore this setting is also unlikely to yield useful palaeoseismological records. This is not intended as a pessimistic tale, however, but instead aims to provide guidance for the future. Efforts should focus on sites that ideally feature: sediments that can be dated accurately from proximal to distal sites; near-constant sediment accumulation rates through time, that provide high enough sensitivities to failure; limited modification by bottom-currents; and, known historical earthquake

  20. Brief Communication: On the source characteristics and impacts of the magnitude 7.2 Bohol earthquake, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagmay, A. M. F.; Eco, R.

    2014-10-01

    A devastating earthquake struck Bohol, Philippines, on 15 October 2013. The earthquake originated at 12 km depth from an unmapped reverse fault, which manifested on the surface for several kilometers and with maximum vertical displacement of 3 m. The earthquake resulted in 222 fatalities with damage to infrastructure estimated at USD 52.06 million. Widespread landslides and sinkholes formed in the predominantly limestone region during the earthquake. These remain a significant threat to communities as destabilized hillside slopes, landslide-dammed rivers and incipient sinkholes are still vulnerable to collapse, triggered possibly by aftershocks and heavy rains in the upcoming months of November and December. The most recent fatal temblor originated from a previously unmapped fault, herein referred to as the Inabanga Fault. Like the hidden or previously unmapped faults responsible for the 2012 Negros and 2013 Bohol earthquakes, there may be more unidentified faults that need to be mapped through field and geophysical methods. This is necessary to mitigate the possible damaging effects of future earthquakes in the Philippines.

  1. Homogenization and implementation of a 3D regional velocity model in Mexico for its application in moment tensor inversion of intermediate-magnitude earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Cardozo, Félix; Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala; Caló, Marco

    2017-04-01

    Moment tensor inversions for intermediate and small earthquakes (M. Mexico, using surface waves and seismic noise tomography (Spica et al., 2016; Gaite et al., 2015), which could be used to model the waveforms of intermediate magnitud earthquakes in this region. Such models are parameterized as layered velocity profiles and for some of the profiles, the velocity difference between two layers are considerable. The "jump" in velocities between two layers is inconvenient for some methods and algorithms that calculate synthetic waveforms, in particular for the method that we are using, the spectral element method (SPECFEM3D GLOBE, Komatitsch y Tromp, 2000), when the mesh does not follow the layer boundaries. In order to make the velocity models more easily implementec in SPECFEM3D GLOBE it is neccesary to apply a homogenization algorithm (Capdeville et al., 2015) such that the (now anisotropic) layer velocities are smoothly varying with depth. In this work, we apply a homogenization algorithm to the regional velocity models in México for implementing them in SPECFEM3D GLOBE, calculate synthetic waveforms for intermediate-magnitude earthquakes in México and invert them for the seismic moment tensor.

  2. Isoseismal map of the 2015 Nepal earthquake and its relationships with ground-motion parameters, distance and magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prajapati, Sanjay K.; Dadhich, Harendra K.; Chopra, Sumer

    2017-01-01

    A devastating earthquake of Mw 7.8 struck central Nepal on 25th April, 2015 (6:11:25 UT) which resulted in more than ∼9000 deaths, and destroyed millions of houses. Standing buildings, roads and electrical installations worth 25-30 billions of dollars are reduced to rubbles. The earthquake was widely felt in the northern parts of India and moderate damage have been observed in the northern part of UP and Bihar region of India. Maximum intensity IX, according to the USGS report, was observed in the meizoseismal zone, surrounding the Kathmandu region. In the present study, we have compiled available information from the print, electronic media and various reports of damages and other effects caused by the event, and interpreted them to obtain Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI) at over 175 locations spread over Nepal and surrounding Indian and Tibet region. We have also obtained a number of strong motion recordings from India and Nepal seismic network and developed an empirical relationship between the MMI and peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV). We have used least square regression technique to derive the empirical relation between the MMI and ground motion parameters and compared them with the empirical relationships available for other regions of the world. Further, seismic intensity information available for historical earthquakes, which have occurred in the Nepal Himalaya along with the present intensity data has been utilized for developing an attenuation relationship for the studied region using two step regression analyses. The derived attenuation relationship is useful for assessing damage of a potential future large earthquake (earthquake scenario-based planning purposes) in the region.

  3. The earthquakes on 12 April 1998 and 12 July 2004 in Krn Mountains (NW Slovenia – time distribution of aftershocks and magnitude-frequency relation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Gosar

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Earthquakes on 12 April 1998 (ML=5.6 and 12. July 2004 (ML=4.9 in Krn Mountains were followed by extensive after shock sequences with several thousand of shocks which lasted for more than one year. In 400 days the first earthquake was followed by 104 and the second one by 89 aftershocks with ML≥2,0. Both strongest aftershocks had magnitudes smaller for 1.4 and 1.3 with respect to the mainshocks, which is slightly more than published values (1.2. Analysis of time distribution of aftershocks with maximum likelihood estimate has shown that the parameters of modified Omori’s law,which describes the hyperbolic decay of aftershock activity with time,arevery similar. This corresponds to the fact that both earthquakes occurred in the same hypocentral area. The value of p parameter is around 1.02. Aftershocks in 1998 clearly show secondary aftershock sequence which started with strongest aftershock on 6 May 1998 (ML=4.2, but there was no secondary sequence in 2004. Analysis of magnitude-frequency (Gutenberg-Richter’s relation with least squares and maximum likelihood estimate has given the value of b parameter for 1998 aftershock sequence between 0.77 and 0.83 and for 2004 sequence between 0.97 and 0.98. This means that the first earthquake was followed by more stronger after shocks.Obtained parameters of modified Omori’s law and Gutenberg-Richter’s relation are in good agreement with values published for similar aftershock sequences.

  4. Fluid-faulting evolution in high definition: Connecting fault structure and frequency-magnitude variations during the 2014 Long Valley Caldera, California earthquake swarm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelly, David R.; Ellsworth, William L.; Hill, David P.

    2016-01-01

    An extended earthquake swarm occurred beneath southeastern Long Valley Caldera between May and November 2014, culminating in three magnitude 3.5 earthquakes and 1145 cataloged events on 26 September alone. The swarm produced the most prolific seismicity in the caldera since a major unrest episode in 1997-1998. To gain insight into the physics controlling swarm evolution, we used large-scale cross-correlation between waveforms of cataloged earthquakes and continuous data, producing precise locations for 8494 events, more than 2.5 times the routine catalog. We also estimated magnitudes for 18,634 events (~5.5 times the routine catalog), using a principal component fit to measure waveform amplitudes relative to cataloged events. This expanded and relocated catalog reveals multiple episodes of pronounced hypocenter expansion and migration on a collection of neighboring faults. Given the rapid migration and alignment of hypocenters on narrow faults, we infer that activity was initiated and sustained by an evolving fluid pressure transient with a low-viscosity fluid, likely composed primarily of water and CO2 exsolved from underlying magma. Although both updip and downdip migration were observed within the swarm, downdip activity ceased shortly after activation, while updip activity persisted for weeks at moderate levels. Strongly migrating, single-fault episodes within the larger swarm exhibited a higher proportion of larger earthquakes (lower Gutenberg-Richter b value), which may have been facilitated by fluid pressure confined in two dimensions within the fault zone. In contrast, the later swarm activity occurred on an increasingly diffuse collection of smaller faults, with a much higher b value.

  5. Fluid-faulting evolution in high definition: Connecting fault structure and frequency-magnitude variations during the 2014 Long Valley Caldera, California, earthquake swarm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelly, David R.; Ellsworth, William L.; Hill, David P.

    2016-03-01

    An extended earthquake swarm occurred beneath southeastern Long Valley Caldera between May and November 2014, culminating in three magnitude 3.5 earthquakes and 1145 cataloged events on 26 September alone. The swarm produced the most prolific seismicity in the caldera since a major unrest episode in 1997-1998. To gain insight into the physics controlling swarm evolution, we used large-scale cross correlation between waveforms of cataloged earthquakes and continuous data, producing precise locations for 8494 events, more than 2.5 times the routine catalog. We also estimated magnitudes for 18,634 events (~5.5 times the routine catalog), using a principal component fit to measure waveform amplitudes relative to cataloged events. This expanded and relocated catalog reveals multiple episodes of pronounced hypocenter expansion and migration on a collection of neighboring faults. Given the rapid migration and alignment of hypocenters on narrow faults, we infer that activity was initiated and sustained by an evolving fluid pressure transient with a low-viscosity fluid, likely composed primarily of water and CO2 exsolved from underlying magma. Although both updip and downdip migration were observed within the swarm, downdip activity ceased shortly after activation, while updip activity persisted for weeks at moderate levels. Strongly migrating, single-fault episodes within the larger swarm exhibited a higher proportion of larger earthquakes (lower Gutenberg-Richter b value), which may have been facilitated by fluid pressure confined in two dimensions within the fault zone. In contrast, the later swarm activity occurred on an increasingly diffuse collection of smaller faults, with a much higher b value.

  6. Neotectonics and Paleoseismology of a Previously Unmapped Reverse Fault in Central Philippines―Insights from the Magnitude Mw 7.2 Bohol Earthquake of 15 October 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimando, J. M.; Aurelio, M.; Dianala, J. D. B.; Taguibao, K.

    2015-12-01

    The 2013 Mw 7.2 Bohol earthquake is considered, historically, the strongest to hit the island of Bohol. It is also very significant because it is associated with a previously unmapped fault and because there is a rarity in documented ground rupture associated with earthquakes generated by reverse faulting mechanism in the Philippines. The tentatively 6 km-long ground rupture, now known as the North Bohol Fault (NBF), is situated on the northern sector of the island. The NBF, which trends N40°-60°E and dips approximately 45°SE, is a reverse fault which is is aligned to the ENE-trending foothills in the municipalities of Inabanga and Buenavista, Bohol. The geometry and kinematics of the NBF was examined through documentation of fault trace patterns, analysis of along-strike variations in scarp morphologies and heights, and through observations of fault characteristics from natural exposures. Paleoseismic trenching in Inabanga reveals that at least three large-magnitude earthquakes occurred in the past ~12,000 years. The long return period seems to be consistent with the subtleness of the pre-existing morphotectonic features that are associated with the 2013 ground rupture. Transects constructed from onshore structural readings and analysis of offshore seismic reflection profiles reveal the structural setting of the island and the possible relation of pre-existing offshore fault-fold structures in the western portion of Bohol Island to the still-unmapped SW extent of the NBF. The long return period for earthquakes can be explained by accommodation of slip in the Visayan Sea Basin partially along NE-SW trending folds in Bohol. Several other possibilities are also discussed to explain why the earthquake return period could be even shorter than estimated. Lastly, this study emphasizes the importance of using a wide-array of methods in mapping of tectonic structures to the effective evaluation of seismic hazards in the region.

  7. Determination of focal mechanisms of intermediate-magnitude earthquakes in Mexico, based on Greens functions calculated for a 3D Earth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigo Rodríguez Cardozo, Félix; Hjörleifsdóttir, Vala

    2015-04-01

    One important ingredient in the study of the complex active tectonics in Mexico is the analysis of earthquake focal mechanisms, or the seismic moment tensor. They can be determined trough the calculation of Green functions and subsequent inversion for moment-tensor parameters. However, this calculation is gets progressively more difficult as the magnitude of the earthquakes decreases. Large earthquakes excite waves of longer periods that interact weakly with laterally heterogeneities in the crust. For these earthquakes, using 1D velocity models to compute the Greens fucntions works well. The opposite occurs for smaller and intermediate sized events, where the relatively shorter periods excited interact strongly with lateral heterogeneities in the crust and upper mantle and requires more specific or regional 3D models. In this study, we calculate Greens functions for earthquakes in Mexico using a laterally heterogeneous seismic wave speed model, comprised of mantle model S362ANI (Kustowski et al 2008) and crustal model CRUST 2.0 (Bassin et al 1990). Subsequently, we invert the observed seismograms for the seismic moment tensor using a method developed by Liu et al (2004) an implemented by Óscar de La Vega (2014) for earthquakes in Mexico. By following a brute force approach, in which we include all observed Rayleigh and Love waves of the Mexican National Seismic Network (Servicio Sismológico Naciona, SSN), we obtain reliable focal mechanisms for events that excite a considerable amount of low frequency waves (Mw > 4.8). However, we are not able to consistently estimate focal mechanisms for smaller events using this method, due to high noise levels in many of the records. Excluding the noisy records, or noisy parts of the records manually, requires interactive edition of the data, using an efficient tool for the editing. Therefore, we developed a graphical user interface (GUI), based on python and the python library ObsPy, that allows the edition of observed and

  8. Earthquake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    正A serious earthquake happened in Wenchuan, Sichuan. Over 60,000 people died in the earhtquake, millins of people lost their homes. After the earthquake, people showed their love in different ways. Some gave food, medicine and everything necessary, some gave money,

  9. Repeated large-magnitude earthquakes in a tectonically active, low-strain continental interior: The northern Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landgraf, A.; Dzhumabaeva, A.; Abdrakhmatov, K. E.; Strecker, M. R.; Macaulay, E. A.; Arrowsmith, Jr.; Sudhaus, H.; Preusser, F.; Rugel, G.; Merchel, S.

    2016-05-01

    The northern Tien Shan of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan has been affected by a series of major earthquakes in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. To assess the significance of such a pulse of strain release in a continental interior, it is important to analyze and quantify strain release over multiple time scales. We have undertaken paleoseismological investigations at two geomorphically distinct sites (Panfilovkoe and Rot Front) near the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek. Although located near the historic epicenters, both sites were not affected by these earthquakes. Trenching was accompanied by dating stratigraphy and offset surfaces using luminescence, radiocarbon, and 10Be terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide methods. At Rot Front, trenching of a small scarp did not reveal evidence for surface rupture during the last 5000 years. The scarp rather resembles an extensive debris-flow lobe. At Panfilovkoe, we estimate a Late Pleistocene minimum slip rate of 0.2 ± 0.1 mm/a, averaged over at least two, probably three earthquake cycles. Dip-slip reverse motion along segmented, moderately steep faults resulted in hanging wall collapse scarps during different events. The most recent earthquake occurred around 3.6 ± 1.3 kyr ago (1σ), with dip-slip offsets between 1.2 and 1.4 m. We calculate a probabilistic paleomagnitude to be between 6.7 and 7.2, which is in agreement with regional data from the Kyrgyz range. The morphotectonic signals in the northern Tien Shan are a prime example of deformation in a tectonically active intracontinental mountain belt and as such can help understand the longer-term coevolution of topography and seismogenic processes in similar structural settings worldwide.

  10. 地震预警震级计算方法研究综述%Review on magnitude estimation methods applied to earthquake early warning systems

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张红才; 金星; 李军; 韦永祥; 马强

    2012-01-01

    地震预警系统是减轻地震灾害的有效手段之一,世界上多个国家和地区都已经建立了地震预警系统,并在实际应用中取得了显著的减灾实效.由于地震预警系统应用中的高度时效性要求,预警震级计算是整个地震预警系统中最重要也是最困难的一部分.本文回顾总结了地震预警研究中采用的一些震级计算方法,并将其归纳为三大类算法:与初始周期相关的算法、与初始幅值相关的算法和与初始强度相关的算法.对每种算法都做了详尽介绍和仔细分析,同时列举出与该算法相关的研究成果,通过对这些算法的分析总结并结合我国地震观测台网的实际情况,作者推荐τc、Pd两种方法作为我国地震预警系统建设中优先采用的两种预警震级算法.%Earthquake early warning (EEW) system is one of the effective ways to mitigate earthquake hazards. Several countries and regions in the world have been built their EEW systems and achieved significant mitigation practical effectiveness during operations. Due to the high degree of timeliness requirements of EEW system, earthquake magnitude estimation is the most important also the most difficult part in the whole system. In this paper, we reviewed and summarized earthquake magnitude estimation methods that applied to EEW systems, and grouped them into three categoriesi those are methods associated with initial periods, methods associated with initial amplitudes and methods associated with initial intensities. We made detailed introduction of each method and analyzed them carefully, also we enumerate related research results of each method. Through these analyses and considering the actual situation of seismic networks in our country, the author recommends τc and Pd methods as the two priority magnitude estimation methods when we build the EEW system in our country.

  11. Characterization of the Tail of the Distribution of Earthquake Magnitudes by Combining the GEV and GPD Descriptions of Extreme Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisarenko, V. F.; Sornette, A.; Sornette, D.; Rodkin, M. V.

    2014-08-01

    The present work is a continuation and improvement of the method suggested in P isarenko et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 165:1-42, 2008) for the statistical estimation of the tail of the distribution of earthquake sizes. The chief innovation is to combine the two main limit theorems of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) that allow us to derive the distribution of T-maxima (maximum magnitude occurring in sequential time intervals of duration T) for arbitrary T. This distribution enables one to derive any desired statistical characteristic of the future T-maximum. We propose a method for the estimation of the unknown parameters involved in the two limit theorems corresponding to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) and to the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). We establish the direct relations between the parameters of these distributions, which permit to evaluate the distribution of the T-maxima for arbitrary T. The duality between the GEV and GPD provides a new way to check the consistency of the estimation of the tail characteristics of the distribution of earthquake magnitudes for earthquake occurring over an arbitrary time interval. We develop several procedures and check points to decrease the scatter of the estimates and to verify their consistency. We test our full procedure on the global Harvard catalog (1977-2006) and on the Fennoscandia catalog (1900-2005). For the global catalog, we obtain the following estimates: = 9.53 ± 0.52 and = 9.21 ± 0.20. For Fennoscandia, we obtain = 5.76 ± 0.165 and = 5.44 ± 0.073. The estimates of all related parameters for the GEV and GPD, including the most important form parameter, are also provided. We demonstrate again the absence of robustness of the generally accepted parameter characterizing the tail of the magnitude-frequency law, the maximum possible magnitude M max, and study the more stable parameter Q T ( q), defined as the q-quantile of the distribution of T-maxima on a future interval of duration T.

  12. Incorporating Love- and Rayleigh-Wave Magnitudes, Unequal Earthquake and Explosion Variance Assumptions, and Intrastation Complexity for Improved Event Screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-09-30

    formulation of the teleseismic explosion identification problem with multiple discriminants, Bull. Seism . Soc.Am.9T. 1730-1741. Bonner, J.L., D...Application at Regional and Teleseismic Distances, Part II: Application and Ms-mh Performance. Bull. Seism . Soc. Am. 96: 678-696 Bonner, J. L., R. B...Herrmann, D. Harkrider, and M. Pasyanos (2008). The surface wave magnitude for the 9 October 2006 North Korean nuclear explosion. Bull. Seism . Soc

  13. Natural disaster management: experience of an academic institution after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordero-Reyes, A M; Palacios, I; Ramia, D; West, R; Valencia, M; Ramia, N; Egas, D; Rodas, P; Bahamonde, M; Grunauer, M

    2017-03-01

    This case study describes the implementation of an academic institution's disaster management plan. Case study. USFQ's Medical School developed a six-phase disaster relief plan consisting of: induction, establishing a base camp, crisis management and mental health aid, creation of multidisciplinary teams and multi-agency teams, and reconstruction. Each phase uses a community-oriented approach to foster survivor autonomy and recovery. Our methodology facilitated the successful implementation of multidisciplinary interventions to manage the earthquake's aftermath on the personal, community and regional levels, treated and prevented psychological and physical morbidity among survivors and promoted healthy living conditions and independence. A multidisciplinary response team that addresses medical needs, mental health, education, food, nutrition and sanitation is highly effective in contributing to timely, effective relief efforts. The short- and long-term solutions we describe could be applicable to other academic centres' interventions in future disaster scenarios around the world. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Spatial variation in the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes under the tectonic framework in the Middle East

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousavi, S. Mostafa

    2017-10-01

    Spatial variations of seismic energy released and b-value over the Middle East region are investigated based on a seismicity catalog from 1995 to 2007. The goal is to use these seismic parameters and based on other geodetic and geophysical observations, such as GPS measurements, strain rate model, fault distribution, focal mechanism, crustal model, Q model, and gravity measurements, etc., to uncover spatial patterns that seem anomalous. Areas of high energy released (cumulative) seem to correspond to the areas of relatively high b-values. Areas of high energy released and high b-values seem to correspond very well with the location of continental collision where earthquake activities are high. The divergent boundary between Arabia and African plates and subduction zone at Makran seem to correspond to low to moderate energy release. Northern Pamir, Azerbaijan-Caucasus, the lower part of Zagros Mountains, eastern Turkey, Owen Fracture Zone, Strait of Bob-el-Mandeb, and south of the Sulaiman Shear Zone seem to correspond to high cumulative energy-released, high strain rate, high b-values, and high fault density. While, the central and eastern Iran, southern Zagros, northern Pakistan, Gulf of Aden, Alborz, southwest of the Caspian Sea, western Caucasus and Kopeh-Dagh seem to correspond with lower b-values. The cross-section map for Hindu-Kush shows general decreasing of the b-values with depth, however, a region of high b-value is observed underneath Pamir at depths from 170 to 230 km. This anomaly region can be due to dehydration of Pamir crustal slab at depth.

  15. Teleseismic magnitude relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Båth

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Using available sets of magnitude determinations, primarily from Uppsala seismological bulletin, various extensions are made of the Zurich magnitude recommendations of 1967. Thus, body-wave magnitude (m and surface-wave magnitudes (M are related to each other for 12 different earthquake regions as well as world-wide. Depth corrections for M are derived for all focal depths. Formulas are developed which permit calculation of M also from vertical component long-period seismographs. Body-wave magnitudes from broad-band and narrow-band short-period seismographs are compared and relations deduced. Applications are made both to underground nuclear explosions and to earthquakes. The possibilities of explosion-earthquake discrimination on the basis of magnitudes are examined, as well as the determination of explosive yield from magnitudes. For earthquakes, relations between magnitudes of main earthquakes and largest aftershocks are investigated. A world-wide station network for more homogeneous magnitude determinations is suggested in order to provide the necessary reference system.

  16. Development of a Standardized Methodology for the Use of COSI-Corr Sub-Pixel Image Correlation to Determine Surface Deformation Patterns in Large Magnitude Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milliner, C. W. D.; Dolan, J. F.; Hollingsworth, J.; Leprince, S.; Ayoub, F.

    2014-12-01

    Coseismic surface deformation is typically measured in the field by geologists and with a range of geophysical methods such as InSAR, LiDAR and GPS. Current methods, however, either fail to capture the near-field coseismic surface deformation pattern where vital information is needed, or lack pre-event data. We develop a standardized and reproducible methodology to fully constrain the surface, near-field, coseismic deformation pattern in high resolution using aerial photography. We apply our methodology using the program COSI-corr to successfully cross-correlate pairs of aerial, optical imagery before and after the 1992, Mw 7.3 Landers and 1999, Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes. This technique allows measurement of the coseismic slip distribution and magnitude and width of off-fault deformation with sub-pixel precision. This technique can be applied in a cost effective manner for recent and historic earthquakes using archive aerial imagery. We also use synthetic tests to constrain and correct for the bias imposed on the result due to use of a sliding window during correlation. Correcting for artificial smearing of the tectonic signal allows us to robustly measure the fault zone width along a surface rupture. Furthermore, the synthetic tests have constrained for the first time the measurement precision and accuracy of estimated fault displacements and fault-zone width. Our methodology provides the unique ability to robustly understand the kinematics of surface faulting while at the same time accounting for both off-fault deformation and measurement biases that typically complicates such data. For both earthquakes we find that our displacement measurements derived from cross-correlation are systematically larger than the field displacement measurements, indicating the presence of off-fault deformation. We show that the Landers and Hector Mine earthquake accommodated 46% and 38% of displacement away from the main primary rupture as off-fault deformation, over a mean

  17. Earthquake Facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jump to Navigation Earthquake Facts The largest recorded earthquake in the United States was a magnitude 9.2 that struck Prince William Sound, ... we know, there is no such thing as "earthquake weather" . Statistically, there is an equal distribution of ...

  18. The Manosque earthquake (Alpes de Haute-Provence) of thursday July 8, 2010 (20h20 UT) Magnitude = 3.0 (Ml); Seisme a Manosque (Alpes de Haute-Provence) du jeudi 8 juillet 2010 (20h20 TU) Magnitude = 3,0 (Ml)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The Provence Alpes Cote d'Azur (PACA) region is one of the most exposed to the seismic risk in continental France. The 'Moyenne Durance' fault system (FMD), in particular, is active with weak to moderate earthquakes regularly recorded since the 16. century. The French institute of radiation protection and nuclear safety (IRSN) has recorded the activity of this fault system for 15 years thanks to a seismic monitoring network. On July 8, 2010, a low magnitude earthquake took place near the city of Manosque and at about 15 km of the CEA-Cadarache nuclear facility. The earthquake, which is linked to the FMD activity, has not caused any damage to the facility buildings. The data gathered about historical earthquakes are taken into consideration for the safety re-examination of existing facilities and for the dimensioning of new buildings. (J.S.)

  19. Tohoku's earthquake of Friday March 11, 2011 (5:46 UT), magnitude 9.0, off Honshu island (Japan); Seisme de Tohoku au large de l'Ile d'Honshu (Japon) du vendredi 11 mars 2011 (5h46 TU) Magnitude = 9,0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    On Friday March 11, 2011, at 5:46 UT (2:46 PM local time), a magnitude 9.0 earthquake took place at 80 km east of Honshu island (Japan). The earthquake generated a tsunami which led to the loss of the cooling systems of the Fukushima Dai-ichi and Fukushima Daini power plants. This paper describes the seismo-tectonic and historical seismic context of the Japan archipelago and the first analyses of the Tohoku earthquake impact: magnitudes of first shock and of aftershocks, impact on nuclear facilities (maximum acceleration values detected with respect to design basis values, subsidence of coastal areas and submersion of power plant platforms). (J.S.)

  20. Research in Seismology: Earthquake Magnitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-07-18

    for 1 January 1972 through 30 June 1972 are: no. 21 (Central Italy), 43 (Tibet), ^ (Yugoslavia), ^ (S. SinKiang ), 91 (N... Sinkiang ), 129 (Greece-Bulgaria), ISO (E. Honshu) and 145 (Caspian Sea). This is about 6% of the total number of events

  1. Major earthquake of Friday March 11, 2011, magnitude 8.9 at 5:46 UT, off Honshu island (Japan); Seisme majeur au large de l'Ile d'Honshu (Japon) du vendredi 11 mars 2011 Magnitude = 8,9 a 5h46 (TU)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    On Friday March 11, 2011, at 5:46 UT (2:46 PM local time), a magnitude 8.9 earthquake took place at 80 km east of Honshu island (Japan). The earthquake affected a large part of the Honshu territory and led to the automatic emergency shutdown of all nuclear power plants of the east coast. This paper recalls first the seismo-tectonic and historical seismic context of the Japan archipelago and the first analyses of the Tohoku earthquake impact on nuclear facilities. At the time of publication of this information report, no radioactive release in the environment and no anomaly at the Tokai-Mura and Rokkasho-Mura sites were mentioned. However, the evacuation of populations in a 3 to 10 km area around the Fukushima-Dai-ichi power plant had been ordered by the Governor as preventive measure, which made one think that the situation at this specific site was particularly worrying. (J.S.)

  2. Nowcasting Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Turcotte, D. L.; Luginbuhl, M.; Gail, G.

    2016-12-01

    Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least 20 or more large earthquake cycles in the region. We then compute the earthquake potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(nearthquakes in the region. From the count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, we determine the value of EPS = P(nearthquake cycle in the defined region at the current time.

  3. Nowcasting earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Luginbuhl, M.; Gong, G.

    2016-11-01

    Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least 20 or more large earthquake cycles in the region. We then compute the earthquake potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(n < n(t)) for the current count n(t) for the small earthquakes in the region. From the count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, we determine the value of EPS = P(n < n(t)). EPS is therefore the current level of hazard and assigns a number between 0% and 100% to every region so defined, thus providing a unique measure. Physically, the EPS corresponds to an estimate of the level of progress through the earthquake cycle in the defined region at the current time.

  4. Recognition of sites of possible development of strong earthquakes, X sites of earthquakes of magnitude M greater than or equal to 7. 75 on the Pacific Ocean coast of South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gvishiani, A.D.; Solv' yev, A.A.; Zhidkov, M.P.

    1982-01-01

    The article continues the cycle of work to determine the sites of possible development of strong earthquakes. Part of the mountain zone of the Andes adjoining the deep-sea trough is examined. The purpose of the work is to isolate by methods of recognition places where earthquakes are possible with Mgreater than or equal to 7.75.

  5. Is Earthquake Triggering Driven by Small Earthquakes?

    CERN Document Server

    Helmstetter, A

    2002-01-01

    Using a catalog of seismicity for Southern California, we measure how the number of triggered earthquakes increases with the earthquake magnitude. The trade-off between this scaling and the distribution of earthquake magnitudes controls the relative role of small compared to large earthquakes. We show that seismicity triggering is driven by the smallest earthquakes, which trigger fewer aftershocks than larger earthquakes, but which are much more numerous. We propose that the non-trivial scaling of the number of aftershocks emerges from the fractal spatial distribution of aftershocks.

  6. Earthquake Hazards Program: Earthquake Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A scenario represents one realization of a potential future earthquake by assuming a particular magnitude, location, and fault-rupture geometry and estimating...

  7. [Personal resilience and post-traumatic stress symptoms of local government employees: six months after the 2011 magnitude 9.0 East Japan Earthquake].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuno, Kanami; Oshima, Kazuki; Kubota, Kazumi; Kawakami, Norito

    2014-01-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake caused severe infrastructure damage in the Kanto and Tohoku regions, but the psychological stress of public sector employees in the Kanto region where tsunami damage was small has received little attention. This study examined the association between personal resilience and post-traumatic stress symptoms of local government employees in the Kanto region. In this cross-sectional study, all employees (N=2,069) of a single municipality in the Kanto region were recruited in September 2011, six months after the earthquake, and 991 completed the questionnaire (response rate, 47.9%). After excluding respondents who had missing values, the data from 825 respondents (607 males and 218 females) were analyzed. Post-traumatic stress symptoms were measured using the Impact Event Scale-Revised. Resilience was measured using the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale and divided into three groups on the basis of scores; low, moderate, and high. House damage and respondents or their families' experience of injury that were caused by the earthquake were assessed using single-item questions. Participants who reported house damage or injury were defined as being affected. Using multiple logistic regression analysis, the odds ratio of post-traumatic stress symptoms (IES-R score ≥25) was calculated for the upper, middle, and low resilience score groups. Among the respondents, 4.6% experienced injuries within their families, 82.3% reported house damage, and thus 83.3% were affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake. Post-traumatic stress symptoms were significantly higher among the affected group and those with chronic diseases. After adjusting for the demographic and occupational characteristics, the likelihood of post-traumatic stress symptoms was greater in the low resilience group (Odds ratio: 2.10 [95% confidence interval = 1.31-3.37]). A significant negative relationship was observed between resilience and post-traumatic stress symptoms particularly in

  8. Focal mechanisms and moment magnitudes of micro-earthquakes in central Brazil by waveform inversion with quality assessment and inference of the local stress field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, Juraci; Barros, Lucas Vieira; Zahradník, Jiří

    2016-11-01

    This paper documents an investigation on the use of full waveform inversion to retrieve focal mechanisms of 11 micro-earthquakes (Mw 0.8 to 1.4). The events represent aftershocks of a 5.0 mb earthquake that occurred on October 8, 2010 close to the city of Mara Rosa in the state of Goiás, Brazil. The main contribution of the work lies in demonstrating the feasibility of waveform inversion of such weak events. The inversion was made possible thanks to recordings available at 8 temporary seismic stations in epicentral distances of less than 8 km, at which waveforms can be successfully modeled at relatively high frequencies (1.5-2.0 Hz). On average, the fault-plane solutions obtained are in agreement with a composite focal mechanism previously calculated from first-motion polarities. They also agree with the fault geometry inferred from precise relocation of the Mara Rosa aftershock sequence. The focal mechanisms provide an estimate of the local stress field. This paper serves as a pilot study for similar investigations in intraplate regions where the stress-field investigations are difficult due to rare earthquake occurrences, and where weak events must be studied with a detailed quality assessment.

  9. Paleoseismic investigations in the Santa Cruz mountains, California: Implications for recurrence of large-magnitude earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, D. P.; Pantosti, D.; Okumura, K.; Powers, T. J.; Hamilton, J. C.

    1998-08-01

    Trenching, microgeomorphic mapping, and tree ring analysis provide information on timing of paleoearthquakes and behavior of the San Andreas fault in the Santa Cruz mountains. At the Grizzly Flat site alluvial units dated at 1640-1659 A.D., 1679-1894 A.D., 1668-1893 A.D., and the present ground surface are displaced by a single event. This was the 1906 surface rupture. Combined trench dates and tree ring analysis suggest that the penultimate event occurred in the mid-1600 s, possibly in an interval as narrow as 1632-1659 A.D. There is no direct evidence in the trenches for the 1838 or 1865 earthquakes, which have been proposed as occurring on this part of the fault zone. In a minimum time of about 340 years only one large surface faulting event (1906) occurred at Grizzly Flat, in contrast to previous recurrence estimates of 95-110 years for the Santa Cruz mountains segment. Comparison with dates of the penultimate San Andreas earthquake at sites north of San Francisco suggests that the San Andreas fault between Point Arena and the Santa Cruz mountains may have failed either as a sequence of closely timed earthquakes on adjacent segments or as a single long rupture similar in length to the 1906 rupture around the mid-1600 s. The 1906 coseismic geodetic slip and the late Holocene geologic slip rate on the San Francisco peninsula and southward are about 50-70% and 70% of their values north of San Francisco, respectively. The slip gradient along the 1906 rupture section of the San Andreas reflects partitioning of plate boundary slip onto the San Gregorio, Sargent, and other faults south of the Golden Gate. If a mid-1600 s event ruptured the same section of the fault that failed in 1906, it supports the concept that long strike-slip faults can contain master rupture segments that repeat in both length and slip distribution. Recognition of a persistent slip rate gradient along the northern San Andreas fault and the concept of a master segment remove the requirement that

  10. Generalized Free-Surface Effect and Random Vibration Theory: a new tool for computing moment magnitudes of small earthquakes using borehole data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malagnini, Luca; Dreger, Douglas S.

    2016-07-01

    Although optimal, computing the moment tensor solution is not always a viable option for the calculation of the size of an earthquake, especially for small events (say, below Mw 2.0). Here we show an alternative approach to the calculation of the moment-rate spectra of small earthquakes, and thus of their scalar moments, that uses a network-based calibration of crustal wave propagation. The method works best when applied to a relatively small crustal volume containing both the seismic sources and the recording sites. In this study we present the calibration of the crustal volume monitored by the High-Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), along the San Andreas Fault (SAF) at Parkfield. After the quantification of the attenuation parameters within the crustal volume under investigation, we proceed to the spectral correction of the observed Fourier amplitude spectra for the 100 largest events in our data set. Multiple estimates of seismic moment for the all events (1811 events total) are obtained by calculating the ratio of rms-averaged spectral quantities based on the peak values of the ground velocity in the time domain, as they are observed in narrowband-filtered time-series. The mathematical operations allowing the described spectral ratios are obtained from Random Vibration Theory (RVT). Due to the optimal conditions of the HRSN, in terms of signal-to-noise ratios, our network-based calibration allows the accurate calculation of seismic moments down to Mw < 0. However, because the HRSN is equipped only with borehole instruments, we define a frequency-dependent Generalized Free-Surface Effect (GFSE), to be used instead of the usual free-surface constant F = 2. Our spectral corrections at Parkfield need a different GFSE for each side of the SAF, which can be quantified by means of the analysis of synthetic seismograms. The importance of the GFSE of borehole instruments increases for decreasing earthquake's size because for smaller earthquakes the bandwidth available

  11. Was the magnitude (M = 9.0R) of the mega-earthquake of Japan (11th of March, 2011) predictable? An analysis based on the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM)

    CERN Document Server

    Thanassoulas, C; Verveniotis, G

    2012-01-01

    The Tohoku EQ (11th of March, 2011, M = 9.0) in Japan falsified the proposed EQ magnitude range (M = 7.0 - 8.5) of the same seismogenic regional area that had been determined by the compiled hazard maps, study of historical data, or other probabilistic methods while a larger magnitude (M > 9.0) had been proposed for all subduction zones. The observed discrepancy between the proposed EQ magnitude range and the actual one of the Tohoku EQ is studied in this work in terms of the cumulative seismic energy release of the study area and by the use of the Lithospheric Seismic Energy Flow Model (LSEFM). The results indicate that the Tohoku mega-earthquake magnitude could be predicted quite accurately provided that a long past seismic history had been available for use by the LSEFM procedure. Moreover, the presence, of the missing historic 1855 EQ (7.0 < M < 8.0) from seismic catalogs, was predicted backwards by the LSEFM method and its existence was verified by the Ishibashi (2004) work on Japanese historic sei...

  12. Heart rate and heart rate variability assessment identifies individual differences in fear response magnitudes to earthquake, free fall, and air puff in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jun; Wei, Wei; Kuang, Hui; Tsien, Joe Z; Zhao, Fang

    2014-01-01

    Fear behaviors and fear memories in rodents have been traditionally assessed by the amount of freezing upon the presentation of conditioned cues or unconditioned stimuli. However, many experiences, such as encountering earthquakes or accidental fall from tree branches, may produce long-lasting fear memories but are behaviorally difficult to measure using freezing parameters. Here, we have examined changes in heartbeat interval dynamics as physiological readout for assessing fearful reactions as mice were subjected to sudden air puff, free-fall drop inside a small elevator, and a laboratory-version earthquake. We showed that these fearful events rapidly increased heart rate (HR) with simultaneous reduction of heart rate variability (HRV). Cardiac changes can be further analyzed in details by measuring three distinct phases: namely, the rapid rising phase in HR, the maximum plateau phase during which HRV is greatly decreased, and the recovery phase during which HR gradually recovers to baseline values. We showed that durations of the maximum plateau phase and HR recovery speed were quite sensitive to habituation over repeated trials. Moreover, we have developed the fear resistance index based on specific cardiac response features. We demonstrated that the fear resistance index remained largely consistent across distinct fearful events in a given animal, thereby enabling us to compare and rank individual mouse's fear responsiveness among the group. Therefore, the fear resistance index described here can represent a useful parameter for measuring personality traits or individual differences in stress-susceptibility in both wild-type mice and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) models.

  13. Heart rate and heart rate variability assessment identifies individual differences in fear response magnitudes to earthquake, free fall, and air puff in mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Liu

    Full Text Available Fear behaviors and fear memories in rodents have been traditionally assessed by the amount of freezing upon the presentation of conditioned cues or unconditioned stimuli. However, many experiences, such as encountering earthquakes or accidental fall from tree branches, may produce long-lasting fear memories but are behaviorally difficult to measure using freezing parameters. Here, we have examined changes in heartbeat interval dynamics as physiological readout for assessing fearful reactions as mice were subjected to sudden air puff, free-fall drop inside a small elevator, and a laboratory-version earthquake. We showed that these fearful events rapidly increased heart rate (HR with simultaneous reduction of heart rate variability (HRV. Cardiac changes can be further analyzed in details by measuring three distinct phases: namely, the rapid rising phase in HR, the maximum plateau phase during which HRV is greatly decreased, and the recovery phase during which HR gradually recovers to baseline values. We showed that durations of the maximum plateau phase and HR recovery speed were quite sensitive to habituation over repeated trials. Moreover, we have developed the fear resistance index based on specific cardiac response features. We demonstrated that the fear resistance index remained largely consistent across distinct fearful events in a given animal, thereby enabling us to compare and rank individual mouse's fear responsiveness among the group. Therefore, the fear resistance index described here can represent a useful parameter for measuring personality traits or individual differences in stress-susceptibility in both wild-type mice and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD models.

  14. Discussion on the Aftershock Magnitude of Nantou 7.6 Earthquake in the Taiwan Island%用Corioli力讨论台湾南投7.6级大震的余震强度

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭增建; 吴瑾冰

    2001-01-01

    The Natou great earthquake in the Taiwan island is caused by a dis location of thrust in the source region with its upper wall slipping toward the west. The Corioli force of this type of dislocation makes both of fault walls c o mpress each other. Therefore, the total energy does not release completely duri n g the mainshock and the magnitudes of the aftershocks are very large. An attemp t to analyze the effect of Corioli force on the aftershock intentisity of the Nat ou great earthquake is made in this paper.%台湾南投大震是震源地方一个逆掩断层错动引起的,上盘向西错动,这种断层错 动的形式其Corioli力效应是使两断层盘相互挤压,因之主震发生时能量释放不彻底,余震 强度较大。 本文试图用Corioli力效应具体讨论台湾南投大震的余震强度。

  15. Tohoku earthquake: a surprise?

    CERN Document Server

    Kagan, Yan Y

    2011-01-01

    We consider three issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) how to evaluate the earthquake maximum size in subduction zones, (2) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in Tohoku area, and (3) what are the possibilities of short-term forecasts during the 2011 sequence. There are two quantitative methods which can be applied to estimate the maximum earthquake size: a statistical analysis of the available earthquake record and the moment conservation principle. The latter technique studies how much of the tectonic deformation rate is released by earthquakes. For the subduction zones, the seismic or historical record is not sufficient to provide a reliable statistical measure of the maximum earthquake. The moment conservation principle yields consistent estimates of maximum earthquake size: for all the subduction zones the magnitude is of the order 9.0--9.7, and for major subduction zones the maximum earthquake size is statistically indistinguishable. Starting in 1999 we have carried out...

  16. Earthquake Damage to Transportation Systems

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Earthquakes represent one of the most destructive natural hazards known to man. A serious result of large-magnitude earthquakes is the disruption of transportation...

  17. Modeling earthquake dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Arthur; Durand, Marilou

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate questions arising in Parsons and Geist (Bull Seismol Soc Am 102:1-11, 2012). Pseudo causal models connecting magnitudes and waiting times are considered, through generalized regression. We do use conditional model (magnitude given previous waiting time, and conversely) as an extension to joint distribution model described in Nikoloulopoulos and Karlis (Environmetrics 19: 251-269, 2008). On the one hand, we fit a Pareto distribution for earthquake magnitudes, where the tail index is a function of waiting time following previous earthquake; on the other hand, waiting times are modeled using a Gamma or a Weibull distribution, where parameters are functions of the magnitude of the previous earthquake. We use those two models, alternatively, to generate the dynamics of earthquake occurrence, and to estimate the probability of occurrence of several earthquakes within a year or a decade.

  18. Recurrence Statistics of Great Earthquakes

    CERN Document Server

    Ben-Naim, E; Johnson, P A

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time, defined as the time between two consecutive earthquakes. We study the variance in the recurrence time and the maximal recurrence time. Using these quantities, we compare the earthquake record with sequences of random events, generated by numerical simulations, while systematically varying the minimal earthquake magnitude Mmin. Our analysis shows that the earthquake record is consistent with a random process for magnitude thresholds 7.0<=Mmin<=8.3, where the number of events is larger. Interestingly, the earthquake record deviates from a random process at magnitude threshold 8.4<=Mmin<= 8.5, where the number of events is smaller; however, this deviation is not strong enough to conclude that great earthquakes are clustered. Overall, the findings are robust both qualitat...

  19. More Earthquake Misery

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Less than four months after the devastation of the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, another quake brings further death and destruction to southwest China on August 30, a 6.1-magnitude earthquake hit southwest China, the border of Sichuan Province and Yunnan Province. Panzhihua City, Huili County in Sichuan and Yuanmou County and Yongren County in Yunnan were worst hit.

  20. Landslide seismic magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, C. H.; Jan, J. C.; Pu, H. C.; Tu, Y.; Chen, C. C.; Wu, Y. M.

    2015-11-01

    Landslides have become one of the most deadly natural disasters on earth, not only due to a significant increase in extreme climate change caused by global warming, but also rapid economic development in topographic relief areas. How to detect landslides using a real-time system has become an important question for reducing possible landslide impacts on human society. However, traditional detection of landslides, either through direct surveys in the field or remote sensing images obtained via aircraft or satellites, is highly time consuming. Here we analyze very long period seismic signals (20-50 s) generated by large landslides such as Typhoon Morakot, which passed though Taiwan in August 2009. In addition to successfully locating 109 large landslides, we define landslide seismic magnitude based on an empirical formula: Lm = log ⁡ (A) + 0.55 log ⁡ (Δ) + 2.44, where A is the maximum displacement (μm) recorded at one seismic station and Δ is its distance (km) from the landslide. We conclude that both the location and seismic magnitude of large landslides can be rapidly estimated from broadband seismic networks for both academic and applied purposes, similar to earthquake monitoring. We suggest a real-time algorithm be set up for routine monitoring of landslides in places where they pose a frequent threat.

  1. The Characteristics of Earthquake Swarms in and around Jiangsu Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huang Yun; Tian Jianming; Miao Ali

    2011-01-01

    This paper systematically analyzed 36 earthquake swarms in and around Jiangsu Province, summarized their characteristics and discussed the relationship between earthquske swarms and subsequent strong earthquakes. It also analyzed the judgment criteria for precursory earthquake swarms. Earthquake swarms in Jiangsu Province are concentrated in several areas. Most of them were of magnitude ML2. 0 ~ 3. 9. For most earthquake swarms, the number of earthquakes was less than 30. Time duration for about 55% of earthquake swarms was less than 15 days. The biggest magnitude of one earthquake swarm was not proportional to the number of earthquakes and time duration. There are 78% of earthquake swarms corresponded to the forthcoming earthquakes of M 〉 4. 6 in which there're 57% occured in one year, This shows a medium- and short-term criterion. Distance between earthquake swarm and future earthquake was distributed dispersedly. There were no earthquakes occurring in the same location as earthquake swarms. There was no good correlation between the magnitude and the corresponding rate of future earthquakes and the intensity of earthquake swarms. There was also no good correlation between the number of earthquakes in an earthquake swarm and the corresponding rate. The study also shows that it's better to use U-p or whole-combination to determine the type of earthquake swarm.

  2. OCEAN-WIDE TSUNAMIS, MAGNITUDE THRESHOLDS, AND 1946 TYPE EVENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel A. Walker

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available An analysis of magnitudes and runups in Hawaii for more than 200 tsunamigenic earthquakes along the margins of the Pacific reveals that all of the earthquakes with moment magnitudes of 8.6 or greater produced significant Pacific-wide tsunamis. Such findings can be used as a basis for early warnings of significant ocean-wide tsunamis as a supplement to, or in the absence of, more comprehensive data from other sources. Additional analysis of magnitude and runup data suggests that 1946 type earthquakes and tsunamis may be more common than previously believed.

  3. The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-01-01

    The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

  4. An Overview of the Study on Stress Magnitude

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sheng Shuzhong; Wan Yongge

    2009-01-01

    Crustal stress field holds an important position in geodynamics research, such as in plate motion simulations, uplift of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and earthquake preparation and occurrence. However, most of the crustal stress studies emphasize particularly on the determination of stress direction, with little study being done on stress magnitude at present. After reviewing ideas on a stress magnitude study from geological, geophysical and various other aspects, a method to estimate the stress magnitude in the source region according to the deflection of stress direction before and after large earthquakes and the stress drop tensor of earthquake rupture has been developed. The proposed method can also be supplemented by the average apparent stress before and after large earthquakes. The stress direction deflection before and after large earthquakes can be inverted by massive focal mechanisms of foreshocks and aftershocks and the stress drop field generated by the seismic source can be calculated by the detailed distribution of the earthquake's rupture. The mathematical relationship can then be constructed between the stress drop field, where its magnitude and direction are known and the stress tensor before and after large earthquakes, where its direction is known but magnitude is unknown, thereby obtaining the stress magnitude. The average apparent stress before and after large earthquakes can be obtained by using the catalog of broadband radiated energy and seismic moment tensor of foreshocks and aftershocks and the different responses to stress drops. This relationship leads to another estimation of stress magnitude before a large earthquake. The stress magnitude and its error are constrained by combining the two methods, which provide new constraints for the geodyuamics study.

  5. Fast Regional Magnitude Determination at INGV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelini, A.; Lomax, A.; Bono, A.; Amato, A.

    2006-12-01

    The recent, very large earthquakes in the Indian Ocean and Indonesia have shown the importance of rapid magnitude determination for tsunami warning. In the Mediterranean region, destructive tsunamis have occurred repeatedly in the past; however, because of the proximity of the tsunami sources to populated coasts, very rapid analysis is necessary for effective warning. Reliable estimates of the earthquake location and size should be available within tens of seconds after the first arriving P-waves are recorded at local and regional distances. Currently in Europe there is no centralized agency such as the PTWC for the Pacific Ocean dedicated to issue tsunami warnings, though, recent initiatives, such as the NEAMTWS (North-East Atlantic and Mediterranean Tsunami Warning System), aim toward the establishment of such an agency. Thus established seismic monitoring centers, such as INGV, Rome, are currently relied upon for rapid earthquake analysis and information dissemination. In this study, we describe the recent, experimental implementation at the INGV seismic center of a procedure for rapid magnitude determination at regional distances based on the Mwp methodology (Tsuboi et al., 1995), which exploits information in the P-wave train. For our Mwp determinations, we have implemented an automatic procedure that windows the relevant part of the seismograms and picks the amplitudes of the first two largest peaks, providing within seconds after each P arrival an estimate of earthquake size. Manual revision is completed using interactive software that presents an analysis with the seismograms, amplitude picks and magnitude estimates. We have compared our Mwp magnitudes for recent earthquakes within the Mediterranean region with Mw determined through the Harvard CMT procedure. For the majority of the events, the Mwp and Mw magnitudes agree closely, indicating that the rapid Mwp estimates forms a useful tool for effective tsunami warning on a regional scale.

  6. Passive seismic monitoring at the ketzin CCS site -Magnitude estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paap, B.F.; Steeghs, T.P.H.

    2014-01-01

    In order to allow quantification of the strength of local micro-seismic events recorded at the CCS pilot site in Ketzin in terms of local magnitude, earthquake data recorded by standardized seismometers were used. Earthquakes were selected that occurred in Poland and Czech Republic and that were det

  7. The Testability of Maximum Magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clements, R.; Schorlemmer, D.; Gonzalez, A.; Zoeller, G.; Schneider, M.

    2012-12-01

    Recent disasters caused by earthquakes of unexpectedly large magnitude (such as Tohoku) illustrate the need for reliable assessments of the seismic hazard. Estimates of the maximum possible magnitude M at a given fault or in a particular zone are essential parameters in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), but their accuracy remains untested. In this study, we discuss the testability of long-term and short-term M estimates and the limitations that arise from testing such rare events. Of considerable importance is whether or not those limitations imply a lack of testability of a useful maximum magnitude estimate, and whether this should have any influence on current PSHA methodology. We use a simple extreme value theory approach to derive a probability distribution for the expected maximum magnitude in a future time interval, and we perform a sensitivity analysis on this distribution to determine if there is a reasonable avenue available for testing M estimates as they are commonly reported today: devoid of an appropriate probability distribution of their own and estimated only for infinite time (or relatively large untestable periods). Our results imply that any attempt at testing such estimates is futile, and that the distribution is highly sensitive to M estimates only under certain optimal conditions that are rarely observed in practice. In the future we suggest that PSHA modelers be brutally honest about the uncertainty of M estimates, or must find a way to decrease its influence on the estimated hazard.

  8. Local magnitude estimate at Mt. Etna

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Maiolino

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to verify the duration magnitude MD we calculated local magnitude ML values of 288 earthquakes occurring from October 2002 to April 2003 at Mt. Etna. The analysis was computed at three digital stations of the permanent seismic network of Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia of Catania, using the relationship ML = logA+alog?-b, where A is maximum half-amplitude of the horizontal component of the seismic recording measured in mm and the term «+alog?-b» takes the place of the term «-logA0» of Richter relationship. In particular, a = 0.15 for ?<200 km, b=0.16 for ?<200 km. Duration magnitude MD values, moment magnitude MW values and other local magnitude values were compared. Differences between ML and MD were obtained for the strong seismic swarms occurring on October 27, during the onset of 2002-2003 Mt. Etna eruption, characterized by a high earthquake rate, with very strong events (seismogram results clipped in amplitude on drum recorder trace and high level of volcanic tremor, which not permit us to estimate the duration of the earthquakes correctly. ML and MD relationships were related and therefore a new relationship for MD is proposed. Cumulative strain release calculated after the eruption using ML values is about 1.75E+06 J1/2 higher than the one calculated using MD values.

  9. Independent seismic evaluation of the 24-580-980 south connector ramps response to the south connector ramps to a magnitude 7.25 Hayward Fault earthquake. Volume 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCallen, D. B.; Gerhard, M. A.; Trummer, D. J.; Murray, R. C.

    1996-11-01

    The 24/580/980 interchange is located near Oakland California on the Eastern perimeter of the San Francisco Bay (Fig. 1 and Fig. 2). This interchange is a major artery in the Eastern San Francisco Bay area and provides a critical link between major bay area highways. The main Concord line of the Bay Area Rapid Transit System (BART), with ridership of approximately 270,000 per day, runs underneath the interchange. The interchange site is approximately 4 Km from the Hayward fault and 16 Km from the San Andreas fault. The reinforced concrete interchange was designed and constructed in the mid 1960`s and thus the asphalt structure has many of the vulnerabilities associated with typical pre-1970`s concrete structures (Roberts [1], Zefinski [2], Chai et. al. [3], Priestly and Seible [4]). In 1980 some of the seismic vulnerabilities were addressed as the interchange was retrofit with deck hinge restrainers as part of the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) state-wide seismic retrofit of bridge expansion joints. The interchange was subjected to earthquake motion during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and sustained minor damage in some of the concrete diaphragms which support the hinge restrainer forces [5]. Caltrans engineers, working together with their external consultants Imbsen and Associates, have recently completed a seismic retrofit design for portions of the interchange. The retrofit is primarily intended to fix inadequacies in many of the 1960`s vintage reinforced concrete elements which constitute the bridge superstructure and foundations.

  10. Seismic hazard in Greece. I. Magnitude recurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makropoulos, Kostas C.; Burton, Paul W.

    1985-08-01

    Two different methods are applied to the earthquake catalogue for Greece (Makropoulos and Burton, 1981), MB catalogue, to evaluate Greek seismic hazard in terms of magnitude: earthquake strain energy release and Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution of extreme values. It is found that there is a close relationship between results from the two methods. In places where the cumulative strain energy release graphs include at least one well defined cycle of periodicity of strain release, then the parameters of the third type asymptote are well defined with small uncertainties. In almost all cases the magnitude distribution shows a remarkably good third type asymptotic behaviour. The results are presented in the form of graphs and contour maps of annual and 80-year modes, and magnitudes with 70% probability of not being exceeded in the next 50 and 100 years. For six of the most heavily industrial and highly populated centres of Greece magnitude hazard parameters are also derived and examined in more detail, thereby illustrating the direct applicability of the methods in terms of zoning. The close agreement between observed and predicted extreme magnitudes shows that the sample period considered (1900-1978), is long enough to obtain statistically stable estimates. For Athens the upper bound magnitude is found to be 6.7 ± 0.3 (within 100 km) and 6.8 ± 0.4 (100 km) from the two methods respectively, whereas for Corinth an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 has a mean return period of 43 years. Greece as a whole has an upper bound magnitude 8.7 ± 0.6 and earthquakes of a size similar to the 1903 Kithira event ( M ≈ 8.0) have a mean return period of about 200 years. The significantly different maps contouring magnitudes of the annual and 80-year modes result from the fact that each place has its own distribution curvature for magnitude occurrence, and thus they are not a linear extrapolation of each other. However, as longer return periods are considered, these differences

  11. Nonstationary ETAS models for nonstandard earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Kumazawa, Takao; Ogata, Yosihiko

    2014-01-01

    The conditional intensity function of a point process is a useful tool for generating probability forecasts of earthquakes. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is defined by a conditional intensity function, and the corresponding point process is equivalent to a branching process, assuming that an earthquake generates a cluster of offspring earthquakes (triggered earthquakes or so-called aftershocks). Further, the size of the first-generation cluster depends on the magnitude of...

  12. The October 12, 1992, Dahshur, Egypt, Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thenhaus, P.C.; Celebi, M.; Sharp, R.V.

    1993-01-01

    Cairo and northeastern Egypt experienced a rare, damaging earthquake on October 12, 1992. The earthquake, which measured 5.9 on the Richter magnitude scale, was centered near the village of Dahshur, about 18 km south of Cairo. The computed hypocentral depth of the earthquake, about 25 km, is consistent with the fact that fault rupture associated with the earthquake did not reach the surface. 

  13. Australia: historical earthquake studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. McCue

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Historical studies of earthquakes in Australia using information dating back to 1788 have been comprehensive, if not exhaustive. Newspapers have been the main source of historical earthquake studies. A brief review is given here with an introduction to the pre-European aboriginal dreamtime information. Some of the anecdotal information of the last two centuries has been compiled as isoseismal maps. Relationships between isoseismal radii and magnitude have been established using post-instrumental data allowing magnitudes to be assigned to the pre-instrumental data, which can then be incorporated into the national earthquake database. The studies have contributed to hazard analyses for the building codes and stimulated research into microzonation and paleo-seismology.

  14. Sense of Community and Depressive Symptoms among Older Earthquake Survivors Following the 2008 Earthquake in Chengdu China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yawen; Sun, Fei; He, Xusong; Chan, Kin Sun

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the impact of an earthquake as well as the role of sense of community as a protective factor against depressive symptoms among older Chinese adults who survived an 8.0 magnitude earthquake in 2008. A household survey of a random sample was conducted 3 months after the earthquake and 298 older earthquake survivors participated…

  15. Sense of Community and Depressive Symptoms among Older Earthquake Survivors Following the 2008 Earthquake in Chengdu China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yawen; Sun, Fei; He, Xusong; Chan, Kin Sun

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the impact of an earthquake as well as the role of sense of community as a protective factor against depressive symptoms among older Chinese adults who survived an 8.0 magnitude earthquake in 2008. A household survey of a random sample was conducted 3 months after the earthquake and 298 older earthquake survivors participated…

  16. ALMA measures Calama earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, R.; Shillue, B.

    2010-04-01

    On 4 March 2010, the ALMA system response to an extraordinarily large disturbance was measured when a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck near Calama, Chile, relatively close to the ALMA site. Figures 1 through 4 demonstrate the remarkable performance of the ALMA system to a huge disturbance that was more than 100 times the specification for correction accuracy.

  17. Co-seismic stress transfer and magnitude-frequency distribution due to the 2012 Varzaqan-Ahar earthquake doublets (Mw 6.5 and 6.4), NW Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansari, Shoja

    2016-12-01

    The Coulomb stress changes imparted by the 2012 Varzaqan-Ahar earthquake doublets to the surrounding area have been examined and correlated with the spatial distribution of the aftershocks. The stress changes due to the first main shock show that the western half of the South Ahar Fault, the southeastern half of the magnetic lineament ML1, the northeastern end of the ML2, the entire length of the ML3, a large part of the ML4 and the northeastern half of the ML5 were brought closer to failure. Whereas the entire length of the Khajeh Fault, a part of the North Tabriz Fault, the western half of the ML1, a large part of the ML2, the northwestern end of the ML4 and the southwestern half of the ML5 were moved away from failure. Along the length of the ML1, some aftershocks were clustered in the southeastern and central sections, while around the western section there is no earthquake clustering. The epicentral distributions of the aftershocks exhibit that most of the events were concentrated in the increased Coulomb stress zones. The b-value distributions in the map view and in the cross-sectional view have been investigated. The map view shows that the low b-value regions (e.g., the north-northwest, east-northeast and southeast of the main shock) are in good agreement with the positive Coulomb stress change zones. The cross-sectional view indicates that the high b-value regions correlate with the areas of high co-seismic slip release. Therefore, surrounding the hypocenter and the western end of the first main shock fault have high b-values, more slip and positive stress drop, while the central sections of the fault have low b-values, less slip and negative stress drop.

  18. Frequency–magnitude distribution of -3.7 < M(subW) < 1 mining-induced earthquakes around a mining front and b value invariance with post-blast time

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naoi, M

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The authors investigated frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD) of acoustic emissions (AE) occurring near an active mining front in a South African gold mine, using a catalog developed from an AE network, which is capable of detecting AEs down to M...

  19. Triggering of volcanic eruptions by large earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishimura, Takeshi

    2017-08-01

    When a large earthquake occurs near an active volcano, there is often concern that volcanic eruptions may be triggered by the earthquake. In this study, recently accumulated, reliable data were analyzed to quantitatively evaluate the probability of the occurrence of new eruptions of volcanoes located near the epicenters of large earthquakes. For volcanoes located within 200 km of large earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 or greater, the eruption occurrence probability increases by approximately 50% for 5 years after the earthquake origin time. However, no significant increase in the occurrence probability of new eruptions was observed at distant volcanoes or for smaller earthquakes. The present results strongly suggest that new eruptions are likely triggered by static stress changes and/or strong ground motions caused by nearby large earthquakes. This is not similar to the previously presented evidence that volcanic earthquakes at distant volcanoes are remotely triggered by surface waves generated by large earthquakes.

  20. Discussion on Earthquake Forecasting and Early Warning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Xiaodong; Jiang Haikun; Li Mingxiao

    2008-01-01

    Through analysis of natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting,the relationship between the natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting (early warning) has been discussed.Regarding the natural attributes of earthquake forecasting,it only attempts to forecast the magnitude,location and occurrence time of future earthquake based on the aualysis of observational data and relevant theories and taking into consideration the present understanding of seismogeny and earthquake generation.It need not consider the consequences an earthquake forecast involves,and its purpose is to check out the level of scientific understanding of earthquakes.In respect of the social aspect of earthquake forecasting,people also focus on the consequence that the forecasting involves,in addition to its natural aspect,such as the uncertainty of earthquake prediction itself,the impact of earthquake prediction,and the earthquake resistant capability of structures (buildings),lifeline works,etc.In a word,it highlights the risk of earthquake forecasting and tries to mitigate the earthquake hazard as much as possible.In this paper,the authors also discuss the scientific and social challenges faced in earthquake prediction and analyze preliminarily the meanings and content of earthquake early warning.

  1. Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

  2. Loma Prieta Earthquake, October 18, 1989, Part 2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — On October 17, 1989, a 7.1 magnitude earthquake occurred near Loma Prieta in the Santa Cruz Mountains. This earthquake is also known as the "San Francisco World...

  3. Suitability of rapid energy magnitude determinations for emergency response purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Giacomo, Domenico; Parolai, Stefano; Bormann, Peter; Grosser, Helmut; Saul, Joachim; Wang, Rongjiang; Zschau, Jochen

    2010-01-01

    It is common practice in the seismological community to use, especially for large earthquakes, the moment magnitude Mw as a unique magnitude parameter to evaluate the earthquake's damage potential. However, as a static measure of earthquake size, Mw does not provide direct information about the released seismic wave energy and its high frequency content, which is the more interesting information both for engineering purposes and for a rapid assessment of the earthquake's shaking potential. Therefore, we recommend to provide to disaster management organizations besides Mw also sufficiently accurate energy magnitude determinations as soon as possible after large earthquakes. We developed and extensively tested a rapid method for calculating the energy magnitude Me within about 10-15 min after an earthquake's occurrence. The method is based on pre-calculated spectral amplitude decay functions obtained from numerical simulations of Green's functions. After empirical validation, the procedure has been applied offline to a large data set of 767 shallow earthquakes that have been grouped according to their type of mechanism (strike-slip, normal faulting, thrust faulting, etc.). The suitability of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing our rapid Me estimates with Mw published by GCMT as well as with Mw and Me reported by the USGS. Mw is on average slightly larger than our Me for all types of mechanisms. No clear dependence on source mechanism is observed for our Me estimates. In contrast, Me from the USGS is generally larger than Mw for strike-slip earthquakes and generally smaller for the other source types. For ~67 per cent of the event data set our Me differs events. A reason of that may be the overcorrection of the energy flux applied by the USGS for this type of earthquakes. We follow the original definition of magnitude scales, which does not apply a priori mechanism corrections to measured amplitudes, also since reliable fault-plane solutions are hardly

  4. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  5. 考虑震级影响的规范阻尼修正系数评估%Evaluation of Damping Modification Factors in Codes with a Consideration of Effect of Earthquake Magnitude

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郝安民; 周德源; 李亚明; 张晖

    2012-01-01

    Damping modification factors (DMF) are used in current codes to adjust elastic response spectral values corresponding to 5% of viscous damping to other damping levels- However, the impact of moment magnitude (Mw) is not considered in codes. The DMF in the NEHRP 2003 and Eurocode 8 are derived from displacement response spectra while those in the China 2010 are obtained from absolute acceleration response spectra. Based on the DMF for different moment magnitude ranges computed from seismic records located at the same site class, except for site Class E, statistical analysis of results shows that the median DMF for M?6. 5 derived from displacement response spectra are close to those values in NEHRP 2003 and Eurocode 8 while those derived from absolute acceleration response spectra are similar to those values in China 2010. However, the DMF far M.=5. 5~S. 5 are obviously different from those values in codes, further, the DMF in codes are probably unsafe. Besides, for site Class E, the DMF in codes are in most cases slightly conservative. Finally, nonlinear regression analyses are used to develop expressions for DMF corresponding to various site classes and moment magnitude ranges.%规范采用阻尼修正系数(DMF)调整阻尼比不同于5%时的弹性反应谱,然而未考虑矩震级的影响.美欧规范DMF是基于位移反应谱,而中国规范DMF是基于绝对加速度反应谱.对同类场地不同矩震级范围内DMF的统计分析表明,除E类场地外,矩震级Mw>6.5时,基于位移反应谱的中值DMF与美欧规范值比较接近,基于绝对加速度反应谱的中值DMF与中国规范值比较接近;而矩震级Mw=5.5~6.5时,中值DMF与各规范值有明显差异,采用规范DMF是偏于不安全的.对E类场地,规范DMF多数情况下稍偏于保守.最后,利用非线性回归分析,提出了不同矩震级范围时各类场地DMF表达式.

  6. Aftershock Hazard Magnitude, Time, and Location Probability Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuei-Pao Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study combines branching aftershock sequence (BASS and modified _ law to develop a predictive model for forecasting the magnitude, time, and location of aftershocks of magnitude Mw ≥ 5.00 in large earthquakes. The developed model is presented and applied to the 17:47 20 September 1999 Mw 7.45 Chi-Chi earthquake Taiwan, 09:32 5 November 2009 (UTC Nantou Mw 6.19, 00:18 4 March 2010 (UTC Jiashian Mw 6.49 earthquake sequences, Taiwan, and 05:46 11 March 2011 (UTC Tohoku Mw 9.00 earthquake, Japan. The estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA results are remarkably similar to calculations from the recorded magnitudes in both trend and level. This study proposes an empirical equation to improve the aftershock occurrence forecast time. The forecast time results were greatly improved. The magnitude of aftershocks generally decreases with time. It was found that the aftershock forecast probability of Mw ≥ 5.00 is high in the first six days after the main shock. The results will be of interest to seismic mitigation specialists. Spatial and temporal seismicity parameters to the aftershock sequence investigation into the 17:47 20 September 1999 (UTC Mw 7.45 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan found that immediately after the earthquake the area closest to the epicenter had a lower b value. This pattern suggests that at the time of the Chi-Chi earthquake, the area closest to the epicenter remained prone to large magnitude aftershocks and strong shaking. With time, however, the b value increased, indicating a reduced likelihood for large magnitude aftershocks.

  7. Calculation of Calibration Functions and Explosive Aftershock Magnitudes in the Near Field

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Xuezheng; Wang Haijun; Lei Jun

    2003-01-01

    The current calibration function used in calculating the magnitude of natural earthquakes within 5km is a constant; a fact that causes several serious difficulties for the calculation of the magnitude of small and shallow-focus earthquakes. According to the attenuation law of explosions and the propagation theory of elastic waves, the calibration function is calculated for near field quakes from 0km to 5km. Magnitudes of two aftershock sequences are calculated.The magnitudes of most explosion earthquakes are small, ranging mainly from magnitude 0.5 to 1.0. The M-t chart of the explosive aftershocks is completely different from that of strong earthquake aftershocks. It not only shows positive columnar lines indicating large magnitudes but also short negative columnar lines indicating small magnitudes.

  8. 2010 Chile Earthquake Aftershock Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barientos, Sergio

    2010-05-01

    The Mw=8.8 earthquake off the coast of Chile on 27 February 2010 is the 5th largest megathrust earthquake ever to be recorded and provides an unprecedented opportunity to advance our understanding of megathrust earthquakes and associated phenomena. The 2010 Chile earthquake ruptured the Concepcion-Constitucion segment of the Nazca/South America plate boundary, south of the Central Chile region and triggered a tsunami along the coast. Following the 2010 earthquake, a very energetic aftershock sequence is being observed in an area that is 600 km along strike from Valparaiso to 150 km south of Concepcion. Within the first three weeks there were over 260 aftershocks with magnitude 5.0 or greater and 18 with magnitude 6.0 or greater (NEIC, USGS). The Concepcion-Constitucion segment lies immediately north of the rupture zone associated with the great magnitude 9.5 Chile earthquake, and south of the 1906 and the 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes. The last great subduction earthquake in the region dates back to the February 1835 event described by Darwin (1871). Since 1835, part of the region was affected in the north by the Talca earthquake in December 1928, interpreted as a shallow dipping thrust event, and by the Chillan earthquake (Mw 7.9, January 1939), a slab-pull intermediate depth earthquake. For the last 30 years, geodetic studies in this area were consistent with a fully coupled elastic loading of the subduction interface at depth; this led to identify the area as a mature seismic gap with potential for an earthquake of magnitude of the order 8.5 or several earthquakes of lesser magnitude. What was less expected was the partial rupturing of the 1985 segment toward north. Today, the 2010 earthquake raises some disturbing questions: Why and how the rupture terminated where it did at the northern end? How did the 2010 earthquake load the adjacent segment to the north and did the 1985 earthquake only partially ruptured the plate interface leaving loaded asperities since

  9. Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Kagan, Yan Y

    2013-01-01

    Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density as a function of location, magnitude, and focal mechanism. In previous publications we reported forecasts of 0.5 degree spatial resolution, covering the latitude range magnitude, and focal mechanism. In previous publications we reported forecasts of 0.5 degree spatial resolution, covering the latitude range from -75 to +75 degrees, based on the Global Central Moment Tensor earthquake catalog. In the new forecasts we've improved the spatial resolution to 0.1 degree and the latitude range from pole to pole. Our focal mechanism estimates require distance-weighted combinations of observed focal mechanisms within 1000 km of each grid point. Simultaneously we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms, using the method ...

  10. A Decade of Giant Earthquakes - What does it mean?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallace, Terry C. Jr. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-07-16

    On December 26, 2004 the largest earthquake since 1964 occurred near Ache, Indonesia. The magnitude 9.2 earthquake and subsequent tsunami killed a quarter of million people; it also marked the being of a period of extraordinary seismicity. Since the Ache earthquake there have been 16 magnitude 8 earthquakes globally, including 2 this last April. For the 100 years previous to 2004 there was an average of 1 magnitude 8 earthquake every 2.2 years; since 2004 there has been 2 per year. Since magnitude 8 earthquakes dominate global seismic energy release, this period of seismicity has seismologist rethinking what they understand about plate tectonics and the connectivity between giant earthquakes. This talk will explore this remarkable period of time and its possible implications.

  11. The moment magnitude M w and the energy magnitude M e: common roots and differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bormann, Peter; di Giacomo, Domenico

    2011-04-01

    Starting from the classical empirical magnitude-energy relationships, in this article, the derivation of the modern scales for moment magnitude M w and energy magnitude M e is outlined and critically discussed. The formulas for M w and M e calculation are presented in a way that reveals, besides the contributions of the physically defined measurement parameters seismic moment M 0 and radiated seismic energy E S, the role of the constants in the classical Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-energy relationship. Further, it is shown that M w and M e are linked via the parameter Θ = log( E S/ M 0), and the formula for M e can be written as M e = M w + (Θ + 4.7)/1.5. This relationship directly links M e with M w via their common scaling to classical magnitudes and, at the same time, highlights the reason why M w and M e can significantly differ. In fact, Θ is assumed to be constant when calculating M w. However, variations over three to four orders of magnitude in stress drop Δ σ (as well as related variations in rupture velocity V R and seismic wave radiation efficiency η R) are responsible for the large variability of actual Θ values of earthquakes. As a result, for the same earthquake, M e may sometimes differ by more than one magnitude unit from M w. Such a difference is highly relevant when assessing the actual damage potential associated with a given earthquake, because it expresses rather different static and dynamic source properties. While M w is most appropriate for estimating the earthquake size (i.e., the product of rupture area times average displacement) and thus the potential tsunami hazard posed by strong and great earthquakes in marine environs, M e is more suitable than M w for assessing the potential hazard of damage due to strong ground shaking, i.e., the earthquake strength. Therefore, whenever possible, these two magnitudes should be both independently determined and jointly considered. Usually, only M w is taken as a unified magnitude in many

  12. Earthquake forecast for the Wasatch Front region of the Intermountain West

    Science.gov (United States)

    DuRoss, Christopher B.

    2016-04-18

    The Working Group on Utah Earthquake Probabilities has assessed the probability of large earthquakes in the Wasatch Front region. There is a 43 percent probability of one or more magnitude 6.75 or greater earthquakes and a 57 percent probability of one or more magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquakes in the region in the next 50 years. These results highlight the threat of large earthquakes in the region.

  13. Whether solar flares can trigger earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, R.

    2007-05-01

    We present the study of 682 earthquakes of ¡Ý4.0 magnitude observed during January 1991 to January 2007 in the light of solar flares observed by GOES and SOXS missions in order to explore the possibility of any association between solar flares and earthquakes. Our investigation preliminarily shows that each earthquake under study was preceded by a solar flare of GOES importance B to X class by 10-100 hrs. However, each flare was not found followed by earthquake of magnitude ¡Ý4.0. We classified the earthquake events with respect to their magnitude and further attempted to look for their correlation with GOES importance class and delay time. We found that with the increasing importance of flares the delay in the onset of earthquake reduces. The critical X-ray intensity of the flare to be associated with earthquake is found to be ~10-6 Watts/m2. On the other hand no clear evidence could be established that higher importance flares precede high magnitude earthquakes. Our detailed study of 50 earthquakes associated with solar flares observed by SOXS mission and other wavebands revealed many interesting results such as the location of the flare on the Sun and the delay time in the earthquake and its magnitude. We propose a model explaining the charged particles accelerated during the solar flare and released in the space that undergone further acceleration by interplanetary shocks and produce the ring current in the earth's magnetosphere, which may enhance the process of tectonics plates motion abruptly at fault zones. It is further proposed that such sudden enhancement in the process of tectonic motion of plates in fault zones may increase abruptly the heat gradients on spatial (dT/dx) and temporal (dT/dt) scales responsible for earthquakes.

  14. Telescopic limiting magnitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Bradley E.

    1990-01-01

    The prediction of the magnitude of the faintest star visible through a telescope by a visual observer is a difficult problem in physiology. Many prediction formulas have been advanced over the years, but most do not even consider the magnification used. Here, the prediction algorithm problem is attacked with two complimentary approaches: (1) First, a theoretical algorithm was developed based on physiological data for the sensitivity of the eye. This algorithm also accounts for the transmission of the atmosphere and the telescope, the brightness of the sky, the color of the star, the age of the observer, the aperture, and the magnification. (2) Second, 314 observed values for the limiting magnitude were collected as a test of the formula. It is found that the formula does accurately predict the average observed limiting magnitudes under all conditions.

  15. Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake, January 17, 1995

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Earthquake - At 5:46 A.M. local time on January 17, 1995, a major earthquake occurred near the City of Kobe, Japan. The 6.9 magnitude earthquake had 40 km of...

  16. Earthquake Damage, Northern Iran, June 21, 1990

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurred in the Gilan Province between the towns of Rudbar and Manjil in northern Iran on Thursday, June 21, 1990. The event, the largest...

  17. Adaptively Smoothed Seismicity Earthquake Forecasts for Italy

    CERN Document Server

    Werner, M J; Jackson, D D; Kagan, Y Y; Wiemer, S

    2010-01-01

    We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California by Helmstetter et al. (2007) and Werner et al. (2010), approximates seismicity by a spatially heterogeneous, temporally homogeneous Poisson point process. The temporal, spatial and magnitude dimensions are entirely decoupled. Magnitudes are independently and identically distributed according to a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We estimated the spatial distribution of future seismicity by smoothing the locations of past earthquakes listed in two Italian catalogs: a short instrumental catalog and a longer instrumental and historical catalog. The bandwidth of the adaptive spatial kernel is estimated by optimizing the predictive power of the kernel estimate of the spatial earthquake density in retrospective forecasts. When available and trustworthy, we used small earthquakes m>2.95 to illuminate active fault structur...

  18. Landers and Big Bear California Earthquakes, June 28, 1992

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — California residents were rudely awakened early Sunday morning June 28, 1992, by an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 (Ms) followed by a smaller 6.7 (s) magnitude...

  19. Analog earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hofmann, R.B. [Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses, San Antonio, TX (United States)

    1995-09-01

    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository.

  20. Large earthquakes and creeping faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Ruth A.

    2017-01-01

    Faults are ubiquitous throughout the Earth's crust. The majority are silent for decades to centuries, until they suddenly rupture and produce earthquakes. With a focus on shallow continental active-tectonic regions, this paper reviews a subset of faults that have a different behavior. These unusual faults slowly creep for long periods of time and produce many small earthquakes. The presence of fault creep and the related microseismicity helps illuminate faults that might not otherwise be located in fine detail, but there is also the question of how creeping faults contribute to seismic hazard. It appears that well-recorded creeping fault earthquakes of up to magnitude 6.6 that have occurred in shallow continental regions produce similar fault-surface rupture areas and similar peak ground shaking as their locked fault counterparts of the same earthquake magnitude. The behavior of much larger earthquakes on shallow creeping continental faults is less well known, because there is a dearth of comprehensive observations. Computational simulations provide an opportunity to fill the gaps in our understanding, particularly of the dynamic processes that occur during large earthquake rupture and arrest.

  1. Physically-based modelling of the competition between surface uplift and erosion caused by earthquakes and earthquake sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hovius, Niels; Marc, Odin; Meunier, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    Large earthquakes deform Earth's surface and drive topographic growth in the frontal zones of mountain belts. They also induce widespread mass wasting, reducing relief. Preliminary studies have proposed that above a critical magnitude earthquake would induce more erosion than uplift. Other parameters such as fault geometry or earthquake depth were not considered yet. A new seismologically consistent model of earthquake induced landsliding allow us to explore the importance of parameters such as earthquake depth and landscape steepness. We have compared these eroded volume prediction with co-seismic surface uplift computed with Okada's deformation theory. We found that the earthquake depth and landscape steepness to be the most important parameters compared to the fault geometry (dip and rake). In contrast with previous studies we found that largest earthquakes will always be constructive and that only intermediate size earthquake (Mw ~7) may be destructive. Moreover, with landscapes insufficiently steep or earthquake sources sufficiently deep earthquakes are predicted to be always constructive, whatever their magnitude. We have explored the long term topographic contribution of earthquake sequences, with a Gutenberg Richter distribution or with a repeating, characteristic earthquake magnitude. In these models, the seismogenic layer thickness, that sets the depth range over which the series of earthquakes will distribute, replaces the individual earthquake source depth.We found that in the case of Gutenberg-Richter behavior, relevant for the Himalayan collision for example, the mass balance could remain negative up to Mw~8 for earthquakes with a sub-optimal uplift contribution (e.g., transpressive or gently-dipping earthquakes). Our results indicate that earthquakes have probably a more ambivalent role in topographic building than previously anticipated, and suggest that some fault systems may not induce average topographic growth over their locked zone during a

  2. Earthquakes in Arkansas and vicinity 1699-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dart, Richard L.; Ausbrooks, Scott M.

    2011-01-01

    This map summarizes approximately 300 years of earthquake activity in Arkansas. It is one in a series of similar State earthquake history maps. Work on the Arkansas map was done in collaboration with the Arkansas Geological Survey. The earthquake data plotted on the map are from several sources: the Arkansas Geological Survey, the Center for Earthquake Research and Information, the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, and the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality. In addition to earthquake locations, other materials presented include seismic hazard and isoseismal maps and related text. Earthquakes are a legitimate concern in Arkansas and parts of adjacent states. Arkansas has undergone a number of significant felt earthquakes since 1811. At least two of these events caused property damage: a magnitude 4.7 earthquake in 1931, and a magnitude 4.3 earthquake in 1967. The map shows all historical and instrumentally located earthquakes in Arkansas and vicinity between 1811 and 2010. The largest historic earthquake in the vicinity of the State was an intensity XI event, on December 16, 1811; the first earthquake in the New Madrid sequence. This violent event and the earthquakes that followed caused considerable damage to the then sparsely settled region.

  3. Southern San Andreas Fault seismicity is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, Morgan T.; Felzer, Karen

    2015-01-01

    The magnitudes of any collection of earthquakes nucleating in a region are generally observed to follow the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. On some major faults, however, paleoseismic rates are higher than a G-R extrapolation from the modern rate of small earthquakes would predict. This, along with other observations, led to formulation of the characteristic earthquake hypothesis, which holds that the rate of small to moderate earthquakes is permanently low on large faults relative to the large-earthquake rate (Wesnousky et al., 1983; Schwartz and Coppersmith, 1984). We examine the rate difference between recent small to moderate earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault (SSAF) and the paleoseismic record, hypothesizing that the discrepancy can be explained as a rate change in time rather than a deviation from G-R statistics. We find that with reasonable assumptions, the rate changes necessary to bring the small and large earthquake rates into alignment agree with the size of rate changes seen in epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) modeling, where aftershock triggering of large earthquakes drives strong fluctuations in the seismicity rates for earthquakes of all magnitudes. The necessary rate changes are also comparable to rate changes observed for other faults worldwide. These results are consistent with paleoseismic observations of temporally clustered bursts of large earthquakes on the SSAF and the absence of M greater than or equal to 7 earthquakes on the SSAF since 1857.

  4. Cape Mendocino, CA Earthquakes, April 25 & 26, 1992

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — On April 25, 1992, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred in the Cape Mendocino area. Two additional earthquakes, magnitudes 6.6 and 6.7 occurred the next morning. The...

  5. On the frequency-magnitude distribution of converging boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, W.; Laura, S.; Heuret, A.; Funiciello, F.

    2011-12-01

    The occurrence of the last mega-thrust earthquake in Japan has clearly remarked the high risk posed to society by such events in terms of social and economic losses even at large spatial scale. The primary component for a balanced and objective mitigation of the impact of these earthquakes is the correct forecast of where such kind of events may occur in the future. To date, there is a wide range of opinions about where mega-thrust earthquakes can occur. Here, we aim at presenting some detailed statistical analysis of a database of worldwide interplate earthquakes occurring at current subduction zones. The database has been recently published in the framework of the EURYI Project 'Convergent margins and seismogenesis: defining the risk of great earthquakes by using statistical data and modelling', and it provides a unique opportunity to explore in detail the seismogenic process in subducting lithosphere. In particular, the statistical analysis of this database allows us to explore many interesting scientific issues such as the existence of different frequency-magnitude distributions across the trenches, the quantitative characterization of subduction zones that are able to produce more likely mega-thrust earthquakes, the prominent features that characterize converging boundaries with different seismic activity and so on. Besides the scientific importance, such issues may lead to improve our mega-thrust earthquake forecasting capability.

  6. A first-order second-moment calculation for seismic hazard assessment with the consideration of uncertain magnitude conversion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Wang

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake size can be described with different magnitudes for different purposes. For example, local magnitude ML is usually adopted to compile an earthquake catalog, and moment magnitude Mw is often prescribed by a ground motion model. Understandably, when inconsistent units are encountered in an earthquake analysis, magnitude conversion needs to be performed beforehand. However, the conversion is not expected at full certainty owing to the model error of empirical relationships. This paper introduces a novel first-order second-moment (FOSM calculation to estimate the annual rate of earthquake motion (or seismic hazard on a probabilistic basis, including the consideration of the uncertain magnitude conversion and three other sources of earthquake uncertainties. In addition to the methodology, this novel FOSM application to engineering seismology is demonstrated in this paper with a case study. With a local ground motion model, magnitude conversion relationship and earthquake catalog, the analysis shows that the best-estimate annual rate of peak ground acceleration (PGA greater than 0.18 g (induced by earthquakes is 0.002 per year at a site in Taipei, given the uncertainties of magnitude conversion, earthquake size, earthquake location, and motion attenuation.

  7. A smartphone application for earthquakes that matter!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, Rémy; Etivant, Caroline; Roussel, Fréderic; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Steed, Robert

    2014-05-01

    Smartphone applications have swiftly become one of the most popular tools for rapid reception of earthquake information for the public, some of them having been downloaded more than 1 million times! The advantages are obvious: wherever someone's own location is, they can be automatically informed when an earthquake has struck. Just by setting a magnitude threshold and an area of interest, there is no longer the need to browse the internet as the information reaches you automatically and instantaneously! One question remains: are the provided earthquake notifications always relevant for the public? What are the earthquakes that really matters to laypeople? One clue may be derived from some newspaper reports that show that a while after damaging earthquakes many eyewitnesses scrap the application they installed just after the mainshock. Why? Because either the magnitude threshold is set too high and many felt earthquakes are missed, or it is set too low and the majority of the notifications are related to unfelt earthquakes thereby only increasing anxiety among the population at each new update. Felt and damaging earthquakes are the ones that matter the most for the public (and authorities). They are the ones of societal importance even when of small magnitude. A smartphone application developed by EMSC (Euro-Med Seismological Centre) with the financial support of the Fondation MAIF aims at providing suitable notifications for earthquakes by collating different information threads covering tsunamigenic, potentially damaging and felt earthquakes. Tsunamigenic earthquakes are considered here to be those ones that are the subject of alert or information messages from the PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre). While potentially damaging earthquakes are identified through an automated system called EQIA (Earthquake Qualitative Impact Assessment) developed and operated at EMSC. This rapidly assesses earthquake impact by comparing the population exposed to each expected

  8. Thermal infrared anomalies of several strong earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Congxin; Zhang, Yuansheng; Guo, Xiao; Hui, Shaoxing; Qin, Manzhong; Zhang, Ying

    2013-01-01

    In the history of earthquake thermal infrared research, it is undeniable that before and after strong earthquakes there are significant thermal infrared anomalies which have been interpreted as preseismic precursor in earthquake prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we studied the characteristics of thermal radiation observed before and after the 8 great earthquakes with magnitude up to Ms7.0 by using the satellite infrared remote sensing information. We used new types of data and method to extract the useful anomaly information. Based on the analyses of 8 earthquakes, we got the results as follows. (1) There are significant thermal radiation anomalies before and after earthquakes for all cases. The overall performance of anomalies includes two main stages: expanding first and narrowing later. We easily extracted and identified such seismic anomalies by method of "time-frequency relative power spectrum." (2) There exist evident and different characteristic periods and magnitudes of thermal abnormal radiation for each case. (3) Thermal radiation anomalies are closely related to the geological structure. (4) Thermal radiation has obvious characteristics in abnormal duration, range, and morphology. In summary, we should be sure that earthquake thermal infrared anomalies as useful earthquake precursor can be used in earthquake prediction and forecasting.

  9. Revisiting the global detection capability of earthquakes during the period immediately after a large earthquake: considering the influence of intermediate-depth and deep earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takaki Iwata

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the global earthquake detection capability of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT catalogue during the periods immediately following large earthquakes, including intermediate-depth (70 ≤ depth < 300 km and deep (300 km ≤ depth events. We have already shown that the detection capability beyond an aftershock zone degrades remarkably and that this condition persists for several hours after the occurrence of large shallow (depth < 70 km earthquakes. Because an intermediate-depth or deep earthquake occasionally generates seismic waves with significant amplitudes, it is necessary to investigate the change in the detection capability caused by such events. To this end, from the GCMT catalogue, we constructed the time sequences of the earthquakes that occurred immediately after the large earthquakes, and stacked these time sequences. To these stacked sequences, we then applied a statistical model representing the magnitude-frequency distribution of all observed earthquakes. This model has a parameter that characterizes the detection capability, and the temporal variation of the parameter is estimated by means of a Bayesian approach with a piecewise linear function. Consequently, we find that the global detection capability is lower after the occurrence of shallow earthquakes with magnitudes ≥ 5.45, intermediate-depth earthquakes with magnitudes ≥ 5.95, and deep earthquakes with magnitudes ≥ 6.95.

  10. Tsunami earthquake can occur elsewhere along the Japan Trench—Historical and geological evidence for the 1677 earthquake and tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagisawa, H.; Goto, K.; Sugawara, D.; Kanamaru, K.; Iwamoto, N.; Takamori, Y.

    2016-05-01

    Since the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the mechanisms of large earthquakes along the Japan Trench have been intensely investigated. However, characteristics of tsunami earthquakes, which trigger unusually large tsunami, remain unknown. The earthquake of 4 November 1677 was a tsunami earthquake striking the southern part of the Japan Trench. Its source mechanism remains unclear. This study elucidates the fault slip and moment magnitude of the 1677 earthquake and tsunami based on integrated analyses of historical documents, tsunami deposits, and numerical simulation. Geological survey results, the analytical results of thickness and grain size distributions and diatoms, revealed that tsunami deposits in a small pond at 11 m elevation were probably formed by the 1677 event. This finding and historical descriptions are useful as important constraint conditions to estimate unusually large fault slips and moment magnitude of the 1677 earthquake. Numerical simulation results reveal that 8.34-8.63 moment magnitude with the large 11-16 m slip area is necessary to satisfy the constraint conditions. This fault slip and magnitude are equivalent to those of the 1896 Sanriku earthquake: a well-known tsunami earthquake in the northern part of the Japan Trench. We therefore conclude that a tsunami earthquake of moment magnitude 8.3-8.6 with unusually large slip can occur elsewhere along the Japan Trench. This point should be considered for future tsunami risk assessment along the Japan Trench and along any trench having similar tectonic settings to those of the Japan Trench.

  11. Earthquakes in Mississippi and vicinity 1811-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dart, Richard L.; Bograd, Michael B.E.

    2011-01-01

    This map summarizes two centuries of earthquake activity in Mississippi. Work on the Mississippi map was done in collaboration with the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality, Office of Geology. The earthquake data plotted on the map are from several sources: the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality, the Center for Earthquake Research and Information, the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, and the Arkansas Geological Survey. In addition to earthquake locations, other materials include seismic hazard and isoseismal maps and related text. Earthquakes are a legitimate concern in Mississippi and parts of adjacent States. Mississippi has undergone a number of felt earthquakes since 1811. At least two of these events caused property damage: a magnitude 4.7 earthquake in 1931, and a magnitude 4.3 earthquake in 1967. The map shows all historical and instrumentally located earthquakes in Mississippi and vicinity between 1811 and 2010. The largest historic earthquake in the vicinity of the State was an intensity XI event, on December 16, 1811; the first earthquake in the New Madrid sequence. This violent event and the earthquakes that followed caused considerable damage to the then sparsely settled region.

  12. Fracking, wastewater disposal, and earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarr, Arthur

    2016-03-01

    In the modern oil and gas industry, fracking of low-permeability reservoirs has resulted in a considerable increase in the production of oil and natural gas, but these fluid-injection activities also can induce earthquakes. Earthquakes induced by fracking are an inevitable consequence of the injection of fluid at high pressure, where the intent is to enhance permeability by creating a system of cracks and fissures that allow hydrocarbons to flow to the borehole. The micro-earthquakes induced during these highly-controlled procedures are generally much too small to be felt at the surface; indeed, the creation or reactivation of a large fault would be contrary to the goal of enhancing permeability evenly throughout the formation. Accordingly, the few case histories for which fracking has resulted in felt earthquakes have been due to unintended fault reactivation. Of greater consequence for inducing earthquakes, modern techniques for producing hydrocarbons, including fracking, have resulted in considerable quantities of coproduced wastewater, primarily formation brines. This wastewater is commonly disposed by injection into deep aquifers having high permeability and porosity. As reported in many case histories, pore pressure increases due to wastewater injection were channeled from the target aquifers into fault zones that were, in effect, lubricated, resulting in earthquake slip. These fault zones are often located in the brittle crystalline rocks in the basement. Magnitudes of earthquakes induced by wastewater disposal often exceed 4, the threshold for structural damage. Even though only a small fraction of disposal wells induce earthquakes large enough to be of concern to the public, there are so many of these wells that this source of seismicity contributes significantly to the seismic hazard in the United States, especially east of the Rocky Mountains where standards of building construction are generally not designed to resist shaking from large earthquakes.

  13. Ionospheric phenomena before strong earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Silina

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A statistical analysis of several ionospheric parameters before earthquakes with magnitude M > 5.5 located less than 500 km from an ionospheric vertical sounding station is performed. Ionospheric effects preceding "deep" (depth h > 33 km and "crust" (h 33 km earthquakes were analysed separately. Data of nighttime measurements of the critical frequencies foF2 and foEs, the frequency fbEs and Es-spread at the middle latitude station Dushanbe were used. The frequencies foF2 and fbEs are proportional to the square root of the ionization density at heights of 300 km and 100 km, respectively. It is shown that two days before the earthquakes the values of foF2 averaged over the morning hours (00:00 LT–06:00 LT and of fbEs averaged over the nighttime hours (18:00 LT–06:00 LT decrease; the effect is stronger for the "deep" earthquakes. Analysing the coefficient of semitransparency which characterizes the degree of small-scale turbulence, it was shown that this value increases 1–4 days before "crust" earthquakes, and it does not change before "deep" earthquakes. Studying Es-spread which manifests itself as diffuse Es track on ionograms and characterizes the degree of large-scale turbulence, it was found that the number of Es-spread observations increases 1–3 days before the earthquakes; for "deep" earthquakes the effect is more intensive. Thus it may be concluded that different mechanisms of energy transfer from the region of earthquake preparation to the ionosphere occur for "deep" and "crust" events.

  14. A possible scenario for earlier occurrence of the next Nankai earthquake due to triggering by an earthquake at Hyuga-nada, off southwest Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyodo, Mamoru; Hori, Takane; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

    2016-01-01

    Several recent large-scale earthquakes including the 2011 Tohoku earthquake ( M w 9.0) in northeastern Japan and the 2014 Iquique earthquake ( M w 8.1) in northern Chile were associated with foreshock activities ( M w > 6). The detailed mechanisms between these large earthquakes and the preceding smaller earthquakes are still unknown; however, to plan for disaster mitigation against the anticipated great Nankai Trough earthquakes, in this study, possible scenarios after M w 7-class earthquakes that frequently occur near the focal region of the Nankai Trough are examined through quasi-dynamic modeling of seismic cycles. By assuming that simulated Nankai Trough earthquakes recur as two alternative earthquakes with variations in magnitudes ( M w 8.7-8.4) and recurrence intervals (178-143 years), we systematically examine the effect of the occurrence timing of the M w 7 Hyuga-nada earthquake on the western extension of the source region of Nankai Trough earthquakes on the assumed Nankai Trough seismic cycles. We find that in the latter half of a seismic cycle preceding a large Nankai Trough earthquake, an immature Nankai earthquake tends to be triggered within several years after the occurrence of a Hyuga-nada earthquake, then Tokai (Tonankai) earthquakes occur with maximum time lags of several years. The combined magnitudes of the triggered Nankai and subsequent Tokai (Tonankai) earthquakes become gradually larger with later occurrence of the Hyuga-nada earthquake, while the rupture timings between the Nankai and Tokai (Tonankai) earthquakes become smaller. The triggered occurrence of an immature Nankai Trough earthquake could delay the expected larger Nankai Trough earthquake to the next seismic cycle. Our results indicate that triggering can explain the variety and complexity of historical Nankai Trough earthquakes. Moreover, for the next anticipated event, countermeasures should include the possibility of a triggered occurrence of a Nankai Trough earthquake by an M

  15. Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes. Large earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavenda, B. [Camerino Univ., Camerino, MC (Italy); Cipollone, E. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, S. Maria di Galeria, RM (Italy). National Centre for Research on Thermodynamics

    2000-06-01

    A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershocks sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Frechet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions show that self-similar power laws are transformed into non scaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Frechet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same catalogue of Chinese earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Frechet distribution. Earthquake temperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

  16. The Construction of Emergency Logistics System in China---Based on the Ludian 6.5 Magnitude Earthquake in Yunnan Province%浅谈中国灾害应急物流体系建设--以云南省鲁甸县6.5级地震为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵泽旭; 鲁晓丽; 白杨

    2014-01-01

    在云南省鲁甸县6.5级地震应急中,中国政府及时采取了许多紧急方案来进行救灾,但是由于应急管理体系建设不完善、应急物流管理信息平台的缺乏,应急物资的运输与配送的协调性和计划性的缺乏,在营救过程当中,还是暴露出我国一些应急物流能力的不足。通过对我国应急物流的反思,结合国外应急管理和应急物流的先进经验,系统分析我国应急物流存在的问题,并从应急物流设备、交通网络、信息技术以及应急中的回收物流等方面对中国的应急物流提出建设性的意见。%The Chinese government has taken a number of emergency measures to respond to the 6.5-magnitude earthquake in Ludian country of Yunnan province. However, as the emergency management system is not perfect, lack of emergency logistics management information platform, and is short of the coordination of the transport and distribution of emergency supplies, the Chi-nese government still expose some shortcomings of emergency logistics capability. Combined with the foreign advanced experiences in emergency logistics management, this article systematically analysis the problems of emergency logistics in China; and put for-ward some suggestions of developing emergency logistics, like improving the logistics equipment, transportation network, information technology, and the reverse logistics and so on.

  17. Earthquake Damage, Armenian SSR, December 7, 1988

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — On December 7, 1988, at 11:41 A.M. local time a magnitude 6.9 earthquake shook northwestern Armenia and was followed four minutes later by a magnitude 5.8...

  18. Zero Magnitude Effect for the Productivity of Triggered Tsunami Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, E. L.

    2013-12-01

    The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is applied to tsunami events to explain previously observed temporal clustering of tsunami sources. Tsunami events are defined by National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) tsunami database. For the ETAS analysis, the earthquake magnitude associated with each tsunami event in the NGDC database is replaced by the primary magnitude listed in the Centennial catalog up until 1976 and in the Global CMT catalog from 1976 through 2010. Tsunamis with a submarine landslide or volcanic component are included if they are accompanied by an earthquake, which is most often the case. Tsunami size is used as a mark for determining a tsunami-generating event, according to a minimum completeness level. The tsunami catalog is estimated to be complete for tsunami sizes greater than 1 m since 1900 and greater than 0.1 m since 1960. Of the five parameters in the temporal ETAS model (Ogata, 1988), the parameter that scales the magnitude dependence in the productivity of triggered events is the one that is most different from ETAS parameters derived from similar earthquake catalogs. Maximum likelihood estimates of this magnitude effect parameter is essentially zero, within 95% confidence, for both the 0.1 m and 1.0 m tsunami completeness levels. To explain this result, parameter estimates are determined for the Global CMT catalog under three tsunamigenic conditions: (1) M≥7 and focal depth ≤50 km, (2) submarine location, and (3) dominant component of dip slip. Successive subcatalogs are formed from the Global CMT catalog according to each of these conditions. The high magnitude threshold for tsunamigenesis alone (subcatalog 1) does not explain the zero magnitude effect. The zero magnitude effect also does not appear to be caused the smaller number of tsunamigenic events analyzed in comparison to earthquake catalogs with a similar magnitude threshold. ETAS parameter estimates from the subcatalog (3) with all three tsunamigenic conditions

  19. Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  20. Differentiating induced and natural seismicity using space-time-magnitude statistics applied to the Coso Geothermal field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoenball, Martin; Davatzes, Nicholas C.; Glen, Jonathan M. G.

    2015-01-01

    A remarkable characteristic of earthquakes is their clustering in time and space, displaying their self-similarity. It remains to be tested if natural and induced earthquakes share the same behavior. We study natural and induced earthquakes comparatively in the same tectonic setting at the Coso Geothermal Field. Covering the preproduction and coproduction periods from 1981 to 2013, we analyze interevent times, spatial dimension, and frequency-size distributions for natural and induced earthquakes. Individually, these distributions are statistically indistinguishable. Determining the distribution of nearest neighbor distances in a combined space-time-magnitude metric, lets us identify clear differences between both kinds of seismicity. Compared to natural earthquakes, induced earthquakes feature a larger population of background seismicity and nearest neighbors at large magnitude rescaled times and small magnitude rescaled distances. Local stress perturbations induced by field operations appear to be strong enough to drive local faults through several seismic cycles and reactivate them after time periods on the order of a year.

  1. Earthquake engineering research: 1982

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Committee on Earthquake Engineering Research addressed two questions: What progress has research produced in earthquake engineering and which elements of the problem should future earthquake engineering pursue. It examined and reported in separate chapters of the report: Applications of Past Research, Assessment of Earthquake Hazard, Earthquake Ground Motion, Soil Mechanics and Earth Structures, Analytical and Experimental Structural Dynamics, Earthquake Design of Structures, Seismic Interaction of Structures and Fluids, Social and Economic Aspects, Earthquake Engineering Education, Research in Japan.

  2. Smoking prevalence increases following Canterbury earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erskine, Nick; Daley, Vivien; Stevenson, Sue; Rhodes, Bronwen; Beckert, Lutz

    2013-01-01

    A magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit Canterbury in September 2010. This earthquake and associated aftershocks took the lives of 185 people and drastically changed residents' living, working, and social conditions. To explore the impact of the earthquakes on smoking status and levels of tobacco consumption in the residents of Christchurch. Semistructured interviews were carried out in two city malls and the central bus exchange 15 months after the first earthquake. A total of 1001 people were interviewed. In August 2010, prior to any earthquake, 409 (41%) participants had never smoked, 273 (27%) were currently smoking, and 316 (32%) were ex-smokers. Since the September 2010 earthquake, 76 (24%) of the 316 ex-smokers had smoked at least one cigarette and 29 (38.2%) had smoked more than 100 cigarettes. Of the 273 participants who were current smokers in August 2010, 93 (34.1%) had increased consumption following the earthquake, 94 (34.4%) had not changed, and 86 (31.5%) had decreased their consumption. 53 (57%) of the 93 people whose consumption increased reported that the earthquake and subsequent lifestyle changes as a reason to increase smoking. 24% of ex-smokers resumed smoking following the earthquake, resulting in increased smoking prevalence. Tobacco consumption levels increased in around one-third of current smokers.

  3. The 15 April 1909 Taipei Earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeen-Hwa Wang

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the very early morning at 03 h 53.7 m on 15 April 1909 (local time, a large earthquake occurred in northern Taiwan. In all, 9 persons were killed and 51 injured; 122 houses collapsed along with damage to another 1050 houses. This earthquake was one of the largest and most damaging events of the 20th century for the Taipei Metropolitan Area. The epicenter estimated by Hsu (1971 was determined to be 25¢XN, 121.53¢XE and its focal depth and earthquake magnitude evaluated by Gutenberg and Richter (1954 were ~80 km and MGR = 7.3, respectively. The event took place underneath the Taipei Metropolitan Area and might be located at the western edge of the subduction zone of the Philippine Sea plate. In this study, the magnitudes of the earthquakes determined by others will also be described.

  4. Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aagaard, Brad T.; Blair, James Luke; Boatwright, John; Garcia, Susan H.; Harris, Ruth A.; Michael, Andrew J.; Schwartz, David P.; DiLeo, Jeanne S.; Jacques, Kate; Donlin, Carolyn

    2016-06-13

    Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043. Earthquakes this large are capable of causing widespread damage; therefore, communities in the region should take simple steps to help reduce injuries, damage, and disruption, as well as accelerate recovery from these earthquakes.

  5. Stochastic Differential Equation of Earthquakes Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariani, Maria C.; Tweneboah, Osei K.; Gonzalez-Huizar, Hector; Serpa, Laura

    2016-07-01

    This work is devoted to modeling earthquake time series. We propose a stochastic differential equation based on the superposition of independent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes driven by a Γ (α, β ) process. Superposition of independent Γ (α, β ) Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes offer analytic flexibility and provides a class of continuous time processes capable of exhibiting long memory behavior. The stochastic differential equation is applied to the study of earthquakes by fitting the superposed Γ (α, β ) Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model to earthquake sequences in South America containing very large events (Mw ≥ 8). We obtained very good fit of the observed magnitudes of the earthquakes with the stochastic differential equations, which supports the use of this methodology for the study of earthquakes sequence.

  6. Earthquake Correlations and Networks- A Comparative Study

    CERN Document Server

    G., T R Krishna Mohan P

    2010-01-01

    We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of earthquakes is constructed, which is time ordered and with links between the more correlated ones. Recurrences to earthquakes are identified employing correlation thresholds to demarcate the most meaningful ones in each cluster. Data pertaining to three different seismic regions, viz. California, Japan and Himalayas, are comparatively analyzed using such a network model. The distribution of recurrence lengths and recurrence times are two of the key features analyzed to draw conclusions about the universal aspects of such a network model. We find that the unimodal feature of recurrence length distribution, which helps to associate typical rupture lengths with different magnitude earthquakes, is robust across the different seismic regions. The out-degree of the networks shows a hub ...

  7. Influence of Japan Earthquake Upon Shipbuilding Industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sun Jianmiao

    2011-01-01

    On March 11,the strong earthquake of 9.0 magnitude and the tsunami in Japan made its entire social life,production and communication systems into chaos.As the world third largest economy.Japan is also a large trade,shipbuilding and marine equipment manufacturing country.The earthquake has not only greatly affected the Japanese shipbuilding industry,but also the international shipping industry and Chinese shipbuilding industry.

  8. Twitter earthquake detection: earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel C. Bowden

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word “earthquake” clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  9. Extreme value statistics and thermodynamics of earthquakes: large earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. H. Lavenda

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available A compound Poisson process is used to derive a new shape parameter which can be used to discriminate between large earthquakes and aftershock sequences. Sample exceedance distributions of large earthquakes are fitted to the Pareto tail and the actual distribution of the maximum to the Fréchet distribution, while the sample distribution of aftershocks are fitted to a Beta distribution and the distribution of the minimum to the Weibull distribution for the smallest value. The transition between initial sample distributions and asymptotic extreme value distributions shows that self-similar power laws are transformed into nonscaling exponential distributions so that neither self-similarity nor the Gutenberg-Richter law can be considered universal. The energy-magnitude transformation converts the Fréchet distribution into the Gumbel distribution, originally proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, and not the Gompertz distribution as in the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz generalization of the Gutenberg-Richter law. Numerical comparison is made with the Lomnitz-Adler and Lomnitz analysis using the same Catalogue of Chinese Earthquakes. An analogy is drawn between large earthquakes and high energy particle physics. A generalized equation of state is used to transform the Gamma density into the order-statistic Fréchet distribution. Earthquaketemperature and volume are determined as functions of the energy. Large insurance claims based on the Pareto distribution, which does not have a right endpoint, show why there cannot be a maximum earthquake energy.

  10. The Quantitative Identification of Regional Mine and Natural Earthquakes and Its Application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Xiqiang; Du Yihe; Xu Bo; Li Hong; Shen Ping; Zhang Ping

    2005-01-01

    Based on the Morlet wavelet transform and digital data from the Fushun and Beizhen seismic stations, Liaoning Province, we put forward a new method in the paper, called time-frequency energy attenuation factor (α-value). The characteristics of the α-value and its variation with magnitude of natural and mine earthquakes are studied, and the statistic relations between the α-value and specific earthquake magnitude are obtained. From the results, some conclusions can be drawn as follows: ( 1 ) in general, the α-values of mine and natural earthquakes of the same intensity have obvious difference and the ranges of their variation do not overlap each other; (2) the α-value decreases with the increase of earthquake magnitude, and the α-value of mine earthquake decreases faster than that of natural earthquake; (3) based on the earthquake magnitude and on the relations between the α-value and earthquake magnitude, we can distinguish the mine earthquakes from the natural ones; (4) the difference in focal mechanism of mine and natural earthquakes would be the main cause for obvious difference of the α-value; (5) the α-value variation is relatively steady for mine and natural earthquakes that occur in the same region, but it has obvious regional difference. The above results are of inspirational meaning for the study of abnormal change of the α-value before strong earthquakes.

  11. Parallel Earthquake Simulations on Large-Scale Multicore Supercomputers

    KAUST Repository

    Wu, Xingfu

    2011-01-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural hazards on our planet Earth. Hugh earthquakes striking offshore may cause devastating tsunamis, as evidenced by the 11 March 2011 Japan (moment magnitude Mw9.0) and the 26 December 2004 Sumatra (Mw9.1) earthquakes. Earthquake prediction (in terms of the precise time, place, and magnitude of a coming earthquake) is arguably unfeasible in the foreseeable future. To mitigate seismic hazards from future earthquakes in earthquake-prone areas, such as California and Japan, scientists have been using numerical simulations to study earthquake rupture propagation along faults and seismic wave propagation in the surrounding media on ever-advancing modern computers over past several decades. In particular, ground motion simulations for past and future (possible) significant earthquakes have been performed to understand factors that affect ground shaking in populated areas, and to provide ground shaking characteristics and synthetic seismograms for emergency preparation and design of earthquake-resistant structures. These simulation results can guide the development of more rational seismic provisions for leading to safer, more efficient, and economical50pt]Please provide V. Taylor author e-mail ID. structures in earthquake-prone regions.

  12. Analysis of the seismicity preceding large earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stallone, Angela; Marzocchi, Warner

    2017-04-01

    The most common earthquake forecasting models assume that the magnitude of the next earthquake is independent from the past. This feature is probably one of the most severe limitations of the capability to forecast large earthquakes. In this work, we investigate empirically on this specific aspect, exploring whether variations in seismicity in the space-time-magnitude domain encode some information on the size of the future earthquakes. For this purpose, and to verify the stability of the findings, we consider seismic catalogs covering quite different space-time-magnitude windows, such as the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory (TABOO) catalogue, the California and Japanese seismic catalog. Our method is inspired by the statistical methodology proposed by Baiesi & Paczuski (2004) and elaborated by Zaliapin et al. (2008) to distinguish between triggered and background earthquakes, based on a pairwise nearest-neighbor metric defined by properly rescaled temporal and spatial distances. We generalize the method to a metric based on the k-nearest-neighbors that allows us to consider the overall space-time-magnitude distribution of k-earthquakes, which are the strongly correlated ancestors of a target event. Finally, we analyze the statistical properties of the clusters composed by the target event and its k-nearest-neighbors. In essence, the main goal of this study is to verify if different classes of target event magnitudes are characterized by distinctive "k-foreshocks" distributions. The final step is to show how the findings of this work may (or not) improve the skill of existing earthquake forecasting models.

  13. Ionospheric precursors for crustal earthquakes in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Perrone

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Crustal earthquakes with magnitude 6.0>M≥5.5 observed in Italy for the period 1979–2009 including the last one at L'Aquila on 6 April 2009 were considered to check if the earlier obtained relationships for ionospheric precursors for strong Japanese earthquakes are valid for the Italian moderate earthquakes. The ionospheric precursors are based on the observed variations of the sporadic E-layer parameters (h'Es, fbEs and foF2 at the ionospheric station Rome. Empirical dependencies for the seismo-ionospheric disturbances relating the earthquake magnitude and the epicenter distance are obtained and they have been shown to be similar to those obtained earlier for Japanese earthquakes. The dependences indicate the process of spreading the disturbance from the epicenter towards periphery during the earthquake preparation process. Large lead times for the precursor occurrence (up to 34 days for M=5.8–5.9 tells about a prolong preparation period. A possibility of using the obtained relationships for the earthquakes prediction is discussed.

  14. Effects of magnitude, depth, and time on cellular seismology forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Steven Wolf

    This study finds that, in most cases analyzed to date, past seismicity tends to delineate zones where future earthquakes are likely to occur. Network seismicity catalogs for the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), Australia (AUS), California (CA), and Alaska (AK) are analyzed using modified versions of the Cellular Seismology (CS) method of Kafka (2002, 2007). The percentage of later occurring earthquakes located near earlier occurring earthquakes typically exceeds the expected percentage for randomly distributed later occurring earthquakes, and the specific percentage is influenced by several variables, including magnitude, depth, time, and tectonic setting. At 33% map area coverage, hit percents are typically 85-95% in the NMSZ, 50-60% in AUS, 75-85% in CA, and 75-85% in AK. Statistical significance testing is performed on trials analyzing the same variables so that the overall regions can be compared, although some tests are inconclusive due to the small number of earthquake sample sizes. These results offer useful insights into understanding the capabilities and limits of CS studies, which can provide guidance for improving the seismicity-based components of seismic hazard assessments.

  15. Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

    2014-12-04

    When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake's parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data.

  16. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-15

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes.

  17. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-01

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes.

  18. 1/f and the Earthquake Problem: Scaling constraints to facilitate operational earthquake forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.; Glasscoe, M. T.

    2013-12-01

    The difficulty of forecasting earthquakes can fundamentally be attributed to the self-similar, or '1/f', nature of seismic sequences. Specifically, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their magnitude m, or more accurately to their scalar moment M. With respect to this '1/f problem,' it can be argued that catalog selection (or equivalently, determining catalog constraints) constitutes the most significant challenge to seismicity based earthquake forecasting. Here, we address and introduce a potential solution to this most daunting problem. Specifically, we introduce a framework to constrain, or partition, an earthquake catalog (a study region) in order to resolve local seismicity. In particular, we combine Gutenberg-Richter (GR), rupture length, and Omori scaling with various empirical measurements to relate the size (spatial and temporal extents) of a study area (or bins within a study area), in combination with a metric to quantify rate trends in local seismicity, to the local earthquake magnitude potential - the magnitudes of earthquakes the region is expected to experience. From this, we introduce a new type of time dependent hazard map for which the tuning parameter space is nearly fully constrained. In a similar fashion, by combining various scaling relations and also by incorporating finite extents (rupture length, area, and duration) as constraints, we develop a method to estimate the Omori (temporal) and spatial aftershock decay parameters as a function of the parent earthquake's magnitude m. From this formulation, we develop an ETAS type model that overcomes many point-source limitations of contemporary ETAS. These models demonstrate promise with respect to earthquake forecasting applications. Moreover, the methods employed suggest a general framework whereby earthquake and other complex-system, 1/f type, problems can be constrained from scaling relations and finite extents.

  19. Prediction of earthquakes: a data evaluation and exchange problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melchior, Paul

    1978-11-15

    Recent experiences in earthquake prediction are recalled. Precursor information seems to be available from geodetic measurements, hydrological and geochemical measurements, electric and magnetic measurements, purely seismic phenomena, and zoological phenomena; some new methods are proposed. A list of possible earthquake triggers is given. The dilatancy model is contrasted with a dry model; they seem to be equally successful. In conclusion, the space and time range of the precursors is discussed in relation to the magnitude of earthquakes. (RWR)

  20. Strong ground motion from the michoacan, Mexico, earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J G; Bodin, P; Brune, J N; Prince, J; Singh, S K; Quaas, R; Onate, M

    1986-09-05

    The network of strong motion accelerographs in Mexico includes instruments that were installed, under an international cooperative research program, in sites selected for the high potenial of a large earthquake. The 19 September 1985 earthquake (magnitude 8.1) occurred in a seismic gap where an earthquake was expected. As a result, there is an excellent descripton of the ground motions that caused the disaster.

  1. Magnitude Uncertainties Impact Seismic Rate Estimates, Forecasts and Predictability Experiments

    CERN Document Server

    Werner, M J

    2007-01-01

    The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aims to prospectively test time-dependent earthquake probability forecasts on their consistency with observations. To compete, time-dependent seismicity models are calibrated on earthquake catalog data. But catalogs contain much observational uncertainty. We study the impact of magnitude uncertainties on rate estimates in clustering models, on their forecasts and on their evaluation by CSEP's consistency tests. First, we quantify magnitude uncertainties. We find that magnitude uncertainty is more heavy-tailed than a Gaussian, such as a double-sided exponential distribution, with scale parameter nu_c=0.1 - 0.3. Second, we study the impact of such noise on the forecasts of a simple clustering model which captures the main ingredients of popular short term models. We prove that the deviations of noisy forecasts from an exact forecast are power law distributed in the tail with exponent alpha=1/(a*nu_c), where a is the exponent of the productivity...

  2. Determination of the Limiting Magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingery, Aaron; Blaauw, Rhiannon

    2017-01-01

    The limiting magnitude of an optical camera system is an important property to understand since it is used to find the completeness limit of observations. Limiting magnitude depends on the hardware and software of the system, current weather conditions, and the angular speed of the objects observed. If an object exhibits a substantial angular rate during the exposure, its light spreads out over more pixels than the stationary stars. This spreading causes the limiting magnitude to be brighter when compared to the stellar limiting magnitude. The effect, which begins to become important when the object moves a full width at half max during a single exposure or video frame. For targets with high angular speeds or camera systems with narrow field of view or long exposures, this correction can be significant, up to several magnitudes. The stars in an image are often used to measure the limiting magnitude since they are stationary, have known brightness, and are present in large numbers, making the determination of the limiting magnitude fairly simple. In order to transform stellar limiting magnitude to object limiting magnitude, a correction must be applied accounting for the angular velocity. This technique is adopted in meteor and other fast-moving object observations, as the lack of a statistically significant sample of targets makes it virtually impossible to determine the limiting magnitude before the weather conditions change. While the weather is the dominant factor in observing satellites, the limiting magnitude for meteors also changes throughout the night due to the motion of a meteor shower or sporadic source radiant across the sky. This paper presents methods for determining the limiting stellar magnitude and the conversion to the target limiting magnitude.

  3. Numerical earthquake simulations for seismic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail-Zadeh, Alik; Sokolov, Vladimir; Soloviev, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    A comprehensive seismic hazard assessment can contribute to earthquake preparedness and preventive measures aimed to reduce impacts of earthquakes, especially in the view of growing population and increasing vulnerability and exposure. Realistic earthquake simulations coupled with a seismic hazard analysis can provide better assessments of potential ground shaking due to large earthquakes. We present a model of block-and-fault dynamics, which simulates earthquakes in response to lithosphere movements and allows for studying the influence of fault network properties on seismic patterns. Using case studies (e.g., the Tibet-Himalayan region and the Caucasian region), we analyse the model's performance in terms of reproduction of basic features of the observed seismicity, such as the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrences of large events, fault slip rates, and earthquake mechanisms. We examine a new approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, which is based on instrumentally recorded, historical and simulated earthquakes. Based on predicted and observed peak ground acceleration values, we show that the hazard level associated with large events significantly increases if the long record of simulated seismicity is considered in the hazard assessment.

  4. Napa Earthquake impact on water systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.

    2014-12-01

    South Napa earthquake occurred in Napa, California on August 24 at 3am, local time, and the magnitude is 6.0. The earthquake was the largest in SF Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Economic loss topped $ 1 billion. Wine makers cleaning up and estimated the damage on tourism. Around 15,000 cases of lovely cabernet were pouring into the garden at the Hess Collection. Earthquake potentially raise water pollution risks, could cause water crisis. CA suffered water shortage recent years, and it could be helpful on how to prevent underground/surface water pollution from earthquake. This research gives a clear view on drinking water system in CA, pollution on river systems, as well as estimation on earthquake impact on water supply. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta (close to Napa), is the center of the state's water distribution system, delivering fresh water to more than 25 million residents and 3 million acres of farmland. Delta water conveyed through a network of levees is crucial to Southern California. The drought has significantly curtailed water export, and salt water intrusion reduced fresh water outflows. Strong shaking from a nearby earthquake can cause saturated, loose, sandy soils liquefaction, and could potentially damage major delta levee systems near Napa. Napa earthquake is a wake-up call for Southern California. It could potentially damage freshwater supply system.

  5. Earthquake swarms in South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtkamp, S. G.; Pritchard, M. E.; Lohman, R. B.

    2011-10-01

    We searched for earthquake swarms in South America between 1973 and 2009 using the global Preliminary Determination of Epicenters (PDE) catalogue. Seismicity rates vary greatly over the South American continent, so we employ a manual search approach that aims to be insensitive to spatial and temporal scales or to the number of earthquakes in a potential swarm. We identify 29 possible swarms involving 5-180 earthquakes each (with total swarm moment magnitudes between 4.7 and 6.9) within a range of tectonic and volcanic locations. Some of the earthquake swarms on the subduction megathrust occur as foreshocks and delineate the limits of main shock rupture propagation for large earthquakes, including the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile and 2007 Mw 8.1 Pisco, Peru earthquakes. Also, subduction megathrust swarms commonly occur at the location of subduction of aseismic ridges, including areas of long-standing seismic gaps in Peru and Ecuador. The magnitude-frequency relationship of swarms we observe appears to agree with previously determined magnitude-frequency scaling for swarms in Japan. We examine geodetic data covering five of the swarms to search for an aseismic component. Only two of these swarms (at Copiapó, Chile, in 2006 and near Ticsani Volcano, Peru, in 2005) have suitable satellite-based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations. We invert the InSAR geodetic signal and find that the ground deformation associated with these swarms does not require a significant component of aseismic fault slip or magmatic intrusion. Three swarms in the vicinity of the volcanic arc in southern Peru appear to be triggered by the Mw= 8.5 2001 Peru earthquake, but predicted static Coulomb stress changes due to the main shock were very small at the swarm locations, suggesting that dynamic triggering processes may have had a role in their occurrence. Although we identified few swarms in volcanic regions, we suggest that particularly large volcanic swarms (those that

  6. Predictable earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martini, D.

    2002-12-01

    acceleration) and global number of earthquake for this period from published literature which give us a great picture about the dynamical geophysical phenomena. Methodology: The computing of linear correlation coefficients gives us a chance to quantitatively characterise the relation among the data series, if we suppose a linear dependence in the first step. The correlation coefficients among the Earth's rotational acceleration and Z-orbit acceleration (perpendicular to the ecliptic plane) and the global number of the earthquakes were compared. The results clearly demonstrate the common feature of both the Earth's rotation and Earth's Z-acceleration around the Sun and also between the Earth's rotational acceleration and the earthquake number. This fact might means a strong relation among these phenomena. The mentioned rather strong correlation (r = 0.75) and the 29 year period (Saturn's synodic period) was clearly shown in the counted cross correlation function, which gives the dynamical characteristic of correlation, of Earth's orbital- (Z-direction) and rotational acceleration. This basic period (29 year) was also obvious in the earthquake number data sets with clear common features in time. Conclusion: The Core, which involves the secular variation of the Earth's magnetic field, is the only sufficiently mobile part of the Earth with a sufficient mass to modify the rotation which probably effects on the global time distribution of the earthquakes. Therefore it might means that the secular variation of the earthquakes is inseparable from the changes in Earth's magnetic field, i.e. the interior process of the Earth's core belongs to the dynamical state of the solar system. Therefore if the described idea is real the global distribution of the earthquakes in time is predictable.

  7. Defeating Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

  8. Seismic databases and earthquake catalogue of the Caucasus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godoladze, Tea; Javakhishvili, Zurab; Tvaradze, Nino; Tumanova, Nino; Jorjiashvili, Nato; Gok, Rengen

    2016-04-01

    The Caucasus has a documented historical catalog stretching back to the beginning of the Christian era. Most of the largest historical earthquakes prior to the 19th century are assumed to have occurred on active faults of the Greater Caucasus. Important earthquakes include the Samtskhe earthquake of 1283, Ms~7.0, Io=9; Lechkhumi-Svaneti earthquake of 1350, Ms~7.0, Io=9; and the Alaverdi(earthquake of 1742, Ms~6.8, Io=9. Two significant historical earthquakes that may have occurred within the Javakheti plateau in the Lesser Caucasus are the Tmogvi earthquake of 1088, Ms~6.5, Io=9 and the Akhalkalaki earthquake of 1899, Ms~6.3, Io =8-9. Large earthquakes that occurred in the Caucasus within the period of instrumental observation are: Gori 1920; Tabatskuri 1940; Chkhalta 1963; 1991 Ms=7.0 Racha earthquake, the largest event ever recorded in the region; the 1992 M=6.5 Barisakho earthquake; Ms=6.9 Spitak, Armenia earthquake (100 km south of Tbilisi), which killed over 50,000 people in Armenia. Recently, permanent broadband stations have been deployed across the region as part of various national networks (Georgia (~25 stations), Azerbaijan (~35 stations), Armenia (~14 stations)). The data from the last 10 years of observation provides an opportunity to perform modern, fundamental scientific investigations. A catalog of all instrumentally recorded earthquakes has been compiled by the IES (Institute of Earth Sciences, Ilia State University). The catalog consists of more then 80,000 events. Together with our colleagues from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey the database for the Caucasus seismic events was compiled. We tried to improve locations of the events and calculate Moment magnitudes for the events more than magnitude 4 estimate in order to obtain unified magnitude catalogue of the region. The results will serve as the input for the Seismic hazard assessment for the region.

  9. Improved rapid magnitude estimation for a community-based, low-cost MEMS accelerometer network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Angela I.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Kaiser, Anna E.; Christensen, Carl M.; Yildirim, Battalgazi; Lawrence, Jesse F.

    2015-01-01

    Immediately following the Mw 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake, over 180 Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) low‐cost micro‐electro‐mechanical systems accelerometers were deployed in the Canterbury region. Using data recorded by this dense network from 2010 to 2013, we significantly improved the QCN rapid magnitude estimation relationship. The previous scaling relationship (Lawrence et al., 2014) did not accurately estimate the magnitudes of nearby (estimates earthquake magnitudes within 1 magnitude unit of the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog magnitudes for 99% of the events tested, within 0.5 magnitude units for 90% of the events, and within 0.25 magnitude units for 57% of the events. These magnitudes are reliably estimated within 3 s of the initial trigger recorded on at least seven stations. In this report, we present the methods used to calculate a new scaling relationship and demonstrate the accuracy of the revised magnitude estimates using a program that is able to retrospectively estimate event magnitudes using archived data.

  10. GPS Analyses of the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Gudmundsson, Ólafur

    2005-01-01

    The Sumatra, Indonesia, earthquake on 26 December 2004 was one of the most devastating earthquakes in history. With a magnitude of M w = 9.3 (revised based on normal-mode amplitudes by Stein and Okal, http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/seth/research/sumatra.html), it is the second largest e...

  11. HAZGRIDX: earthquake forecasting model for ML≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Italy based on spatially smoothed seismicity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aybige Akinci

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available We present a five-year, time-independent, earthquake-forecast model for earthquake magnitudes of 5.0 and greater in Italy using spatially smoothed seismicity data. The model is called HAZGRIDX, and it was developed based on the assumption that future earthquakes will occur near locations of historical earthquakes; it does not take into account any information from tectonic, geological, or geodetic data. Thus HAZGRIDX is based on observed earthquake occurrence from seismicity data, without considering any physical model. In the present study, we calculate earthquake rates on a spatial grid platform using two declustered catalogs: 1 the Parametric catalog of Italian earthquakes (Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, CPTI04 that contains the larger earthquakes from MW 7.0 since 1100; and 2 the Italian seismicity catalogue (Catalogo della Sismicità Italiana, CSI 1.1 that contains the small earthquakes down to ML 1.0, with a maximum of ML 5.9, over the past 22 years (1981-2003. The model assumes that earthquake magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter law, with a uniform b-value. The forecast rates are presented in terms of the expected numbers of ML>5.0 events per year for each grid cell of about 10 km × 10 km. The final map is derived by averaging the earthquake potentials that come from these two different catalogs: CPTI04 and CSI 1.1. We also describe the earthquake occurrences in terms of probabilities of occurrence of one event within a specified magnitude bin, DM0.1, in a five year time period. HAZGRIDX is one of several forecasting models, scaled to five and ten years, that have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Probability (CSEP forecasting center in ETH, Zurich, to be tested for Italy.

  12. Earthquake dynamics. Supershear rupture in a M(w) 6.7 aftershock of the 2013 Sea of Okhotsk earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Zhongwen; Helmberger, Donald V; Kanamori, Hiroo; Shearer, Peter M

    2014-07-11

    Earthquake rupture speeds exceeding the shear-wave velocity have been reported for several shallow strike-slip events. Whether supershear rupture also can occur in deep earthquakes is unclear, because of their enigmatic faulting mechanism. Using empirical Green's functions in both regional and teleseismic waveforms, we observed supershear rupture during the 2013 moment magnitude (M(w)) 6.7 deep earthquake beneath the Sea of Okhotsk, an aftershock of the large deep earthquake (M(w) 8.3). The M(w) 6.7 event ruptured downward along a steeply dipping fault plane at an average speed of 8 kilometers per second, suggesting efficient seismic energy generation. Comparing it to the highly dissipative 1994 M(w) 8.3 Bolivia earthquake, the two events represent end members of deep earthquakes in terms of energy partitioning and imply that there is more than one rupture mechanism for deep earthquakes.

  13. Revisiting the Canterbury earthquake sequence after the 14 February 2016 Mw 5.7 event

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herman, Matthew W.; Furlong, Kevin P.

    2016-01-01

    On 14 February 2016, an Mw 5.7 (GNS Science moment magnitude) earthquake ruptured offshore east of Christchurch, New Zealand. This earthquake occurred in an area that had previously experienced significant seismicity from 2010 to 2012 during the Canterbury earthquake sequence, starting with the 2010

  14. Loma Prieta Earthquake, October 18, 1989, Part 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — On October 17, 1989, a 7.1 magnitude earthquake occurred near Loma Prieta in the Santa Cruz Mountains. Movement occurred along a 40-km segment of the San Andreas...

  15. The sinusoidal periodicity nature for M>=5 global earthquakes

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Z X

    2016-01-01

    By using the M>=5 global earthquake data for Jan. 1950 to Dec. 2015, we performed statistical analyses for the parameters magnitude, time, and depth on a yearly scale. The magnitude spectrum, which is the earthquake number accumulated at different magnitudes, had an exponential distribution. For the first time, we report a very significant characteristic of the sinusoidal periodic variation in the spectral index. The cycle of the sine function fitting was 30.98 years. The concept of annual equivalent total magnitude (AETM) of total released energy for each year was introduced and the trend variation of AETM year by year was studied. Overall, the global AETM of earthquakes with M>=5 displayed a certain upward trend as the years elapsed. At the same time, the change of the average epicenter depth of the global earthquakes (M>=5) in each year was analyzed.

  16. Application of real-time GPS to earthquake early warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Richard M. Allen; Alon Ziv

    2011-01-01

      Real-time GPS can provide static-offset observations during an earthquake Real-time GPS provides a robust constrain on magnitude for warnings GPS networks should be used as a companion to seismic...

  17. Earthquake Damage in San Francisco, CA, April 18, 1906

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 1906 San Francisco earthquake was the largest event (magnitude 8.3) to occur in the conterminous United States in the 20th Century. Recent estimates indicate...

  18. Integrated Circuit Stellar Magnitude Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackburn, James A.

    1978-01-01

    Describes an electronic circuit which can be used to demonstrate the stellar magnitude scale. Six rectangular light-emitting diodes with independently adjustable duty cycles represent stars of magnitudes 1 through 6. Experimentally verifies the logarithmic response of the eye. (Author/GA)

  19. Earthquake Scenarios and Comparison with Historical Earthquakes, Hatay Region, SE Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uskuplu, S.; Tuysuz, O.

    2012-04-01

    Hatay Province (Antioch on Orontes) and its surroundings, SE Turkey, have been studied in this research. Tectonically, the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), Dead Sea Fault Zone (DAFZ) and Cyprus Arc juxtapose in this region and form a triple junction. Historical records, which extend back to 300 BC, indicate that repeated destructive earthquakes affected this historical region for many times. It is still a matter of debate in this region that which fault produced these earthquakes. It is indisputable for this region that the probability of occurrence of future big and destructive earthquakes are quite high. For that purpose, the damage distributions of the historical earthquakes of this region, which are compiled from various catalogues, have been investigated in this study. The active faults in the region are determined by field studies and the maximum magnitudes of the earthquakes that can be produced by those faults are calculated by using empirical formulas. In the next step we produced synthetic earthquake scenarios by using Geographical Information System (GIS) analysis techniques to estimate the damage distribution of earthquakes that would possibly be produced by different fault segments. In the last step we compared results of damage distribution of synthetic earthquake scenarios with the damage distribution from historical records. Based on these results we tried to estimate which fault segment produced which historical earthquake. Results of our study indicate that the historical earthquakes in the Hatay Province were mainly produced by different segments of the Dead Sea Fault, and the Antakya-Samandag Fault. Keywords; Earthquake scenarios, GIS, historical earthquakes, Hatay, intensity

  20. Induced earthquake during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw7.0): Importance of real-time shake monitoring for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshiba, M.; Ogiso, M.

    2016-12-01

    Sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes (Mw6.2 on April 14, Mw7.0 on April 16, and many aftershocks) caused a devastating damage at Kumamoto and Oita prefectures, Japan. During the Mw7.0 event, just after the direct S waves passing the central Oita, another M6 class event occurred there more than 80 km apart from the Mw7.0 event. The M6 event is interpreted as an induced earthquake; but it brought stronger shaking at the central Oita than that from the Mw7.0 event. We will discuss the induced earthquake from viewpoint of Earthquake Early Warning. In terms of ground shaking such as PGA and PGV, the Mw7.0 event is much smaller than those of the M6 induced earthquake at the central Oita (for example, 1/8 smaller at OIT009 station for PGA), and then it is easy to discriminate two events. However, PGD of the Mw7.0 is larger than that of the induced earthquake, and its appearance is just before the occurrence of the induced earthquake. It is quite difficult to recognize the induced earthquake from displacement waveforms only, because the displacement is strongly contaminated by that of the preceding Mw7.0 event. In many methods of EEW (including current JMA EEW system), magnitude is used for prediction of ground shaking through Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) and the magnitude is often estimated from displacement. However, displacement magnitude does not necessarily mean the best one for prediction of ground shaking, such as PGA and PGV. In case of the induced earthquake during the Kumamoto earthquake, displacement magnitude could not be estimated because of the strong contamination. Actually JMA EEW system could not recognize the induced earthquake. One of the important lessons we learned from eight years' operation of EEW is an issue of the multiple simultaneous earthquakes, such as aftershocks of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake. Based on this lesson, we have proposed enhancement of real-time monitor of ground shaking itself instead of rapid estimation of

  1. Hurricane Sandy and earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    MAVASHEV BORIS; MAVASHEV IGOR

    2013-01-01

    Submit for consideration the connection between formation of a hurricane Sandy and earthquakes. As a rule, weather anomalies precede and accompany earthquakes. The hurricane Sandy emerged 2 days prior to strong earthquakes that occurred in the area. And the trajectory of the hurricane Sandy matched the epicenter of the earthquakes. Possibility of early prediction of natural disasters will minimize the moral and material damage.

  2. Implications of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models test of earthquake forecasts in California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Karl Sachs

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM test was the first competitive comparison of prospective earthquake forecasts. The test was carried out over 5 years from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2010 over a region that included all of California. The test area was divided into 7682 0.1°x0.1° spatial cells. Each submitted forecast gave the predicted numbers of earthquakes Nemi larger than M=4.95 in 0.1 magnitude bins for each cell. In this paper we present a method that separates the forecast of the number of test earthquakes from the forecast of their locations. We first obtain the number Nem of forecast earthquakes in magnitude bin m. We then determine the conditional probability λemi=Nemi/Nem that an earthquake in magnitude bin m will occur in cell i. The summation of λemi over all 7682 cells is unity. A random (no skill forecast gives equal values of λemi for all spatial cells and magnitude bins. The skill of a forecast, in terms of the location of the earthquakes, is measured by the success in assigning large values of λemi to the cells in which earthquakes occur and low values of λemi to the cells where earthquakes do not occur. Thirty-one test earthquakes occurred in 27 different combinations of spatial cells i and magnitude bins m, we had the highest value of λemi for that mi cell. We evaluate the performance of eleven submitted forecasts in two ways. First, we determine the number of mi cells for which the forecast λemi was the largest, the best forecast is the one with the highest number. Second, we determine the mean value of λemi for the 27 mi cells for each forecast. The best forecast has the highest mean value of λemi. The success of a forecast during the test period is dependent on the allocation of the probabilities λemi between the mi cells, since the sum over the mi cells is unity. We illustrate the forecast distributions of λemi and discuss their differences. We conclude that the RELM test was successful in

  3. Analysis on Depth Distribution and Precursor Mechanism of Small and Moderate Earthquakes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Jian

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, the focus depth distribution of earthquakes with each magnitude has been ana lyzed. Statistic data show that the lower magnitude is, the wider focus depth distributes. With larger magnitude, the focus tends to be concentrated in upper or middle crustal layers. We an alyzed the cause of focus depth distribution and explained the precursor mechanism of small and moderate earthquakes with occurring condition and characteristics of strong earthquakes.The results of this paper may be applied to determine risk sites of strong earthquakes.

  4. Associating an ionospheric parameter with major earthquake occurrence throughout the world

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    D Ghosh; S K Midya

    2014-02-01

    With time, ionospheric variation analysis is gaining over lithospheric monitoring in serving precursors for earthquake forecast. The current paper highlights the association of major (Ms ≥ 6.0) and medium (4.0 ≤ Ms > 6.0) earthquake occurrences throughout the world in different ranges of the Ionospheric Earthquake Parameter (IEP) where ‘Ms’ is earthquake magnitude on the Richter scale. From statistical and graphical analyses, it is concluded that the probability of earthquake occurrence is maximum when the defined parameter lies within the range of 0–75 (lower range). In the higher ranges, earthquake occurrence probability gradually decreases. A probable explanation is also suggested.

  5. Characteristics and Implication of the Earthquake Swarm Occurred in Fuzhou in September 1999

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yuan Dingqiang; Wang Jian

    2001-01-01

    On September 23, 1999, an earthquake swarm occurred in Fuzhou. Because the swarm occurred in the region where earthquakes occurred scarcely before and very close to the center of the city as well as shortly after the Jiji earthquake with Ms7.6 in Taiwan, September 21, 1999, has aroused interest broadly. In this paper, we analyzed the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of the earthquake swarm and validated magnitude-number constituent of the swarm is special. In present theory, the earthquake swarm means that a small scale macro original rupture has formed in the layer of the crust in Fuzhou region where moderately strong earthquake risk exists.

  6. Earthquakes - a danger to deep-lying repositories?; erdbeben: eine gefahr fuer tiefenlager?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-03-15

    This booklet issued by the Swiss National Cooperative for the Disposal of Radioactive Waste NAGRA takes a look at geological factors concerning earthquakes and the safety of deep-lying repositories for nuclear waste. The geological processes involved in the occurrence of earthquakes are briefly looked at and the definitions for magnitude and intensity of earthquakes are discussed. Examples of damage caused by earthquakes are given. The earthquake situation in Switzerland is looked at and the effects of earthquakes on sub-surface structures and deep-lying repositories are discussed. Finally, the ideas proposed for deep-lying geological repositories for nuclear wastes are discussed.

  7. Discrimination between nuclear explosions and earthquakes based on consideration of tectonic ambient shear stress values

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    On the basis of fracture mechanics earthquake rupture model, the relations between source parameters and t0, the value of tectonic ambient shear stress in the place where the earthquake occurs, have been derived. Thus, we can calculate a large number of values of tectonic ambient shear stress or values of background stress in the place where the earthquake occurs. If nuclear explosions are treated as earthquakes in the calculation, we find that t0 values of nuclear explosions have about 20 MPa, which is obviously higher than average t0 values of earthquakes with the same magnitude. This result can be used to discriminate nuclear explosions from earthquakes.

  8. Intersite Magnitude-Yield Bias Exemplified by the Underground Nuclear Explosions MILROW, BOXCAR and HANDLEY

    Science.gov (United States)

    1978-05-05

    flux in the immediate area of Amchitka Island was two to three orders of magnitude higher than that around the Nevada Test Site ( Lomnitz , 1974). This...upper mantle behind island arcs using pP waves, J. Geophys. Res., 80, 1079-1092. Lomnitz , C., 1974. Global Tectonics and Earthquake Risk, Elsevier...1575-1590. Lomnitz , C., 1974, Global Tectonics and Earthquake Risk, Elsevier Scientific Pub1. Co., New York, NY. Love, A. F. 11., 1944, A Treatise on

  9. Magnitude Sensitive Competitive Neural Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pelayo Campillos, Enrique; Buldain Pérez, David; Orrite Uruñuela, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    En esta Tesis se presentan un conjunto de redes neuronales llamadas Magnitude Sensitive Competitive Neural Networks (MSCNNs). Se trata de un conjunto de algoritmos de Competitive Learning que incluyen un término de magnitud como un factor de modulación de la distancia usada en la competición. Al igual que otros métodos competitivos, MSCNNs realizan la cuantización vectorial de los datos, pero el término de magnitud guía el entrenamiento de los centroides de modo que se representan con alto de...

  10. Fast Moment Magnitude Determination from P-wave Trains for Bucharest Rapid Early Warning System (BREWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizurek, Grzegorz; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Wiszniowski, Jan

    2017-03-01

    Bucharest, with a population of approximately 2 million people, has suffered damage from earthquakes in the Vrancea seismic zone, which is located about 170 km from Bucharest, at a depth of 80-200 km. Consequently, an earthquake early warning system (Bucharest Rapid earthquake Early Warning System or BREWS) was constructed to provide some warning about impending shaking from large earthquakes in the Vrancea zone. In order to provide quick estimates of magnitude, seismic moment was first determined from P-waves and then a moment magnitude was determined from the moment. However, this magnitude may not be consistent with previous estimates of magnitude from the Romanian Seismic Network. This paper introduces the algorithm using P-wave spectral levels and compares them with catalog estimates. The testing procedure used waveforms from about 90 events with catalog magnitudes from 3.5 to 5.4. Corrections to the P-wave determined magnitudes according to dominant intermediate depth events mechanism were tested for November 22, 2014, M5.6 and October 17, M6 events. The corrections worked well, but unveiled overestimation of the average magnitude result of about 0.2 magnitude unit in the case of shallow depth event ( H < 60 km). The P-wave spectral approach allows for the relatively fast estimates of magnitude for use in BREWS. The average correction taking into account the most common focal mechanism for radiation pattern coefficient may lead to overestimation of the magnitude for shallow events of about 0.2 magnitude unit. However, in case of events of intermediate depth of M6 the resulting M w is underestimated at about 0.1-0.2. We conclude that our P-wave spectral approach is sufficiently robust for the needs of BREWS for both shallow and intermediate depth events.

  11. Source Parameters for Repeating Earthquakes along the Middle America Trench

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilek, S. L.; Phillips, W. S.; Walter, J. I.; Peng, Z.; Schwartz, S. Y.; Brudzinski, M. R.; Yao, D.

    2015-12-01

    Repeating earthquakes, with their similar locations and similar waveforms, are often thought to represent slip along the same patch of fault. Analysis of these earthquake clusters can provide useful information about the nature of the fault and earthquake interaction. Here we focus on sequences of repeating earthquakes along both the Nicoya Peninsula, Costa Rica and along the Oaxaca segment of Mexico, as both megathrust faults have been well instrumented in recent years with local seismic networks able to record the small magnitude earthquakes. These regions have also experienced large megathrust earthquakes as well as non-volcanic tremor and slow slip, suggesting a complex fault system that allows a wide spectrum of slip. We can use source characteristics of the repeating earthquakes to probe this fault complexity. Along the Nicoya Peninsula, there are over 370 repeating earthquakes (M 0.5-3.3) in the 3 months following the 2012 Mw 7.6 megathrust earthquake grouped into 55 distinct clusters. Along Oaxaca, the earthquake clusters or swarms (M 1.5-5.5) span a wider spatial and temporal range. For our source parameter calculations, we form narrow-frequency band envelopes for pairs of earthquakes within the earthquake clusters to compute spectral ratios for each pair. We determine seismic moment, corner frequency, and earthquake stress drop for each earthquake from these spectral ratios. We compare the source parameters for events within the clusters to examine temporal variations and compare between clusters to explore spatial variations that could be linked to other slip heterogeneity. Preliminary results for the Nicoya region suggest nearly identical stress drop for repeating events within clusters located near the 2012 mainshock, and more variability in stress drops for earthquakes in clusters located updip and to the northwest of the mainshock.

  12. Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

    2014-01-24

    Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.

  13. Coping with earthquakes induced by fluid injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarr, Arthur F.; Bekins, Barbara; Burkardt, Nina; Dewey, James W.; Earle, Paul S.; Ellsworth, William L.; Ge, Shemin; Hickman, Stephen H.; Holland, Austin F.; Majer, Ernest; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Sheehan, Anne

    2015-01-01

    Large areas of the United States long considered geologically stable with little or no detected seismicity have recently become seismically active. The increase in earthquake activity began in the mid-continent starting in 2001 (1) and has continued to rise. In 2014, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes with magnitudes (M) of 3 and greater in Oklahoma exceeded that in California (see the figure). This elevated activity includes larger earthquakes, several with M > 5, that have caused significant damage (2, 3). To a large extent, the increasing rate of earthquakes in the mid-continent is due to fluid-injection activities used in modern energy production (1, 4, 5). We explore potential avenues for mitigating effects of induced seismicity. Although the United States is our focus here, Canada, China, the UK, and others confront similar problems associated with oil and gas production, whereas quakes induced by geothermal activities affect Switzerland, Germany, and others.

  14. New geological perspectives on earthquake recurrence models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwartz, D.P. [Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States)

    1997-02-01

    In most areas of the world the record of historical seismicity is too short or uncertain to accurately characterize the future distribution of earthquakes of different sizes in time and space. Most faults have not ruptured once, let alone repeatedly. Ultimately, the ability to correctly forecast the magnitude, location, and probability of future earthquakes depends on how well one can quantify the past behavior of earthquake sources. Paleoseismological trenching of active faults, historical surface ruptures, liquefaction features, and shaking-induced ground deformation structures provides fundamental information on the past behavior of earthquake sources. These studies quantify (a) the timing of individual past earthquakes and fault slip rates, which lead to estimates of recurrence intervals and the development of recurrence models and (b) the amount of displacement during individual events, which allows estimates of the sizes of past earthquakes on a fault. When timing and slip per event are combined with information on fault zone geometry and structure, models that define individual rupture segments can be developed. Paleoseismicity data, in the form of timing and size of past events, provide a window into the driving mechanism of the earthquake engine--the cycle of stress build-up and release.

  15. Evolution of induced earthquakes from dimensionless scaling

    CERN Document Server

    van Putten, Maurice H P M; van Putten, Michel J A M

    2014-01-01

    Event counts are a powerful diagnostic for earthquake analysis. We report on a bimodal distribution of earthquake event counts in the U.S. since 2013. The new peak is about a magnitude M1 with a distribution very similar to that of induced earthquakes in Groningen, The Netherlands, characterized by exponential growth in event count since 2001. The latter shows a doubling time of 6.24 years with a relatively constant rate of land subsidence. We model its internal shear stresses as a function of dimensionless curvature and illustrate the resulting exponential growth in a tabletop crack formation experiment. Our study proposes a new method of parameter-free statistical forecasting of induced events, that circumvents the need for a magnitude cut-off in the Gutenberg-Richter relationship.

  16. Dependence of the aftershock flow on the main shock magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guglielmi, A. V.; Zavyalov, A. D.; Zotov, O. D.; Lavrov, I. P.

    2017-01-01

    Previously, we predicted and then observed in practice the property of aftershocks which consists in the statistically regular clustering of events in time during the first hours after the main shock. The characteristic quasi-period of clustering is three hours. This property is associated with the cumulative action of the surface waves converging to the epicenter, whereas the quasi-period is mainly determined by the time delay of the round-the-world seismic echo. The quasi-period varies from case to case. In the attempt to find the cause of this variability, we have statistically explored the probable dependence of quasi-period on the magnitude of the main shock. In this paper, we present the corresponding result of analyzing global seismicity from the USGS/NEIC earthquake catalog. We succeeded in finding a significant reduction in the quasiperiod of the strong earthquakes clustering with growth in the magnitude of the main shock. We suggest the interpretation of this regularity from the standpoint of the phenomenological theory of explosive instability. It is noted that the phenomenon of explosive instability is fairly common in the geophysical media. The examples of explosive instability in the radiation belt and magnetospheric tail are presented. The search for the parallels in the evolution of explosive instability in the lithosphere and magnetosphere of the Earth will enrich both the physics of the earthquakes and physics of the magnetospheric pulsations.

  17. Analysis of rupture area of aftershocks caused by twin earthquakes (Case study: 11 April 2012 earthquakes of Aceh-North Sumatra)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diansari, Angga Vertika, E-mail: anggav.bmkg@gmail.com; Purwana, Ibnu; Subakti, Hendri [Academy of Meteorology and Geophysics, Jalan Perhubungan I no.5 Tangerang 15221 (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    The 11 April 2012 earthquakes off-shore Aceh-North Sumatra are unique events for the history of Indonesian earthquake. It is unique because that they have similar magnitude, 8.5 Mw and 8.1 Mw; close to epicenter distance, similar strike-slip focal mechanism, and occuring in outer rise area. The purposes of this research are: (1) comparing area of earthquakes base on models and that of calculation, (2) fitting the shape and the area of earthquake rupture zones, (3) analyzing the relationship between rupture area and magnitude of the earthquakes. Rupture area of the earthquake fault are determined by using 4 different formulas, i.e. Utsu and Seki (1954), Wells and Coppersmith (1994), Ellsworth (2003), and Christophersen and Smith (2000). The earthquakes aftershock parameters are taken from PGN (PusatGempabumiNasional or National Earthquake Information Center) of BMKG (Indonesia Agency Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics). The aftershock epicenters are plotted by GMT’s software. After that, ellipse and rectangular models of aftershock spreading are made. The results show that: (1) rupture areas were calculated using magnitude relationship which are larger than the the aftershock distributions model, (2) the best fitting model for that earthquake aftershock distribution is rectangular associated with Utsu and Seki (1954) formula, (3) the larger the magnitude of the earthquake, the larger area of the fault.

  18. EOP Current Magnitude and Direction

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data contain shipboard current magnitudes and directions collected in the Pacific, both pelagic and near shore environments. Data is collected using an RD...

  19. Abnormally large short-term and impending earthquake geomagnetic anomaly implies a possibility of earthquake pre-warning%Abnormally large short-term and impending earthquake geomagnetic anomaly implies a possibility of earthquake pre-warning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zeng Xiaoping; Zheng Ji'ang; Wang Zhaoyi; Zhang Suqin; Lin Yunfang

    2011-01-01

    The study found that strong magnetic anomalies repeatedly took place before big earthquakes. Based on geomagnetic record analysis results, we discussed a possible pattern of the magnetic anomalies prior to earthquake. In meizoseismal area or epicenter, in a time period of 36 h to about 10 min before earthquake, the exceptional big geomagnetic change increases with the magnitude of earthquake. We calculated that, in a place of 1 km from the epicenter, the magnetic anomaly before destructive earthquakes of Ms 6 - 9 can reach to 10^2 - 10^4 nT(the magnitude of earth magnetic field is 104 nT), rather than the magnitude of 10 nT from seismomagnetic effect theories since 1960s. From this we speculated the abnormal magnetic ULF near epicenter before earthquake seems to be an "intermittent magnetic eruption". Accordingly, we proposed that geomagnetic induction earthquake alarm can be a new pre-warning method to surmount hardship in solving the puzzledom of earthquake imminent prediction.

  20. Compiling the 'Global Earthquake History' (1000-1903)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albini, P.; Musson, R.; Locati, M.; Rovida, A.

    2013-12-01

    The study of historical earthquakes from historical sources, or historical seismology, is of wider interest than just the seismic hazard and risk community. In the scope of the two-year project (October 2010-March 2013) "Global Earthquake History", developed in the framework of GEM, a reassessment of world historical seismicity was made, from available published studies. The scope of the project is the time window 1000-1903, with magnitudes 7.0 and above. Events with lower magnitudes are included on a case by case, or region by region, basis. The Global Historical Earthquake Archive (GHEA) provides a complete account of the global situation in historical seismology. From GHEA, the Global Historical Earthquake Catalogue (GHEC, v1, available at http://www.emidius.eu/GEH/, under Creative Commons licence) was derived, i.e. a world catalogue of earthquakes for the period 1000-1903, with magnitude 7 and over, using publically-available materials, as for the Archive. This is intended to be the best global historical catalogue of large earthquakes presently available, with the best parameters selected, duplications and fakes removed, and in some cases, new earthquakes discovered. GHEA and GHEC are conceived as providing a basis for co-ordinating future research into historical seismology in any part of the world, and hopefully, encouraging new historical earthquake research initiatives that will continue to improve the information available.

  1. Exploring Earthquakes in Real-Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, T. K.; Kafka, A. L.; Coleman, B.; Taber, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquakes capture the attention of students and inspire them to explore the Earth. Adding the ability to view and explore recordings of significant and newsworthy earthquakes in real-time makes the subject even more compelling. To address this opportunity, the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), in collaboration with Moravian College, developed ';jAmaSeis', a cross-platform application that enables students to access real-time earthquake waveform data. Students can watch as the seismic waves are recorded on their computer, and can be among the first to analyze the data from an earthquake. jAmaSeis facilitates student centered investigations of seismological concepts using either a low-cost educational seismograph or streamed data from other educational seismographs or from any seismic station that sends data to the IRIS Data Management System. After an earthquake, students can analyze the seismograms to determine characteristics of earthquakes such as time of occurrence, distance from the epicenter to the station, magnitude, and location. The software has been designed to provide graphical clues to guide students in the analysis and assist in their interpretations. Since jAmaSeis can simultaneously record up to three stations from anywhere on the planet, there are numerous opportunities for student driven investigations. For example, students can explore differences in the seismograms from different distances from an earthquake and compare waveforms from different azimuthal directions. Students can simultaneously monitor seismicity at a tectonic plate boundary and in the middle of the plate regardless of their school location. This can help students discover for themselves the ideas underlying seismic wave propagation, regional earthquake hazards, magnitude-frequency relationships, and the details of plate tectonics. The real-time nature of the data keeps the investigations dynamic, and offers students countless opportunities to explore.

  2. Central Asia earthquake catalogue from ancient time to 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya N. Mikhailova

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we present the seismic catalogue compiled for Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in the framework of the Earthquake Model Central Asia (EMCA project. The catalogue from 2000 B.C. to 2009 A.D. is composed by 33,034 earthquakes in the MLH magnitude (magnitude by surface waves on horizontal components widely used in practice of the former USSR countries range from 1.5 to 8.3. The catalogue includes both macroseimic and instrumental constrained data, with about 32,793 earthquake after 1900 A.D. The main sources and procedure used to compile the catalogues are discussed, and the comparison with the ISC-GEM catalogue presented. Magnitude of completeness analysis shows that the catalogue is complete down to magnitude 4 from 1959 and to magnitude 7 from 1873, whereas the obtained regional b value is 0.805.

  3. Statistical properties and universality in earthquake and solar flare occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Arcangelis, L.; Lippiello, E.; Godano, C.; Nicodemi, M.

    2008-08-01

    Earthquakes are phenomena of great complexity, however some simple general laws govern the statistics of their occurrence. Some of these most important laws exhibit scale invariance, as the Gutenberg-Richter law and the Omori law. The origin of these scaling behaviours is not yet fully understood and a natural fondamental question concerns the existence of these features also in other complex phenomena. A direct inspection of experimental catalogues has shown that the stochastic processes underlying solar flare and earthquake occurrence have universal properties. Another intensively debated question is the existence of correlations between magnitudes of subsequent earthquakes. Our recent analysis of the Southern California Catalogue has shown that non-zero magnitude correlations exist. A branching model based on a dynamical scaling hypothesis, relating magnitude to time, reproduces the hierarchical organization in time and magnitude of events and the observed magnitude correlations.

  4. No evidence of magnitude clustering in an aftershock sequence of nano- and picoseismicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidsen, Jörn; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Dresen, Georg

    2012-01-20

    One of the hallmarks of our current understanding of seismicity as highlighted by the epidemic-type-aftershock sequence model is that the magnitudes of earthquakes are independent of one another and can be considered as randomly drawn from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. This assumption forms the basis of many approaches for forecasting seismicity rates and hazard assessment. Recently, it has been suggested that the assumption of independent magnitudes is not valid. It was subsequently argued that this conclusion was not supported by the original earthquake data from California. One of the main challenges is the lack of completeness of earthquake catalogs. Here, we study an aftershock sequence of nano- and picoseismicity as observed at the Mponeng mine, for which the issue of incompleteness is much less pronounced. We show that this sequence does not exhibit any significant evidence of magnitude correlations.

  5. Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

    2014-12-01

    When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake’s parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data.

  6. Differential energy radiation from two earthquakes in Japan with identical Mw: The Kyushu 1996 and Tottori 2000 earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choy, G.L.; Boatwright, J.

    2009-01-01

    We examine two closely located earthquakes in Japan that had identical moment magnitudes Mw but significantly different energy magnitudes Me. We use teleseismic data from the Global Seismograph Network and strong-motion data from the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention's K-Net to analyze the 19 October 1996 Kyushu earthquake (Mw 6.7, Me 6.6) and the 6 October 2000 Tottori earthquake (Mw 6.7, Me 7.4). To obtain regional estimates of radiated energy ES we apply a spectral technique to regional (earthquake, we estimate an average regional attenuation Q(f) 230f0:65. For the strike-slip Tottori earthquake, the average regional attenuation is Q(f) 180f0:6. These attenuation functions are similar to those derived from studies of both California and Japan earthquakes. The regional estimate of ES for the Kyushu earthquake, 3:8 ?? 1014 J, is significantly smaller than that for the Tottori earthquake, ES 1:3 ?? 1015 J. These estimates correspond well with the teleseismic estimates of 3:9 ?? 1014 J and 1:8 ?? 1015 J, respectively. The apparent stress (Ta = ??Es/M0 with ?? equal to rigidity) for the Kyushu earthquake is 4 times smaller than the apparent stress for the Tottori earthquake. In terms of the fault maturity model, the significantly greater release of energy by the strike-slip Tottori earthquake can be related to strong deformation in an immature intraplate setting. The relatively lower energy release of the thrust-fault Kyushu earthquake can be related to rupture on mature faults at a subduction environment. The consistence between teleseismic and regional estimates of ES is particularly significant as teleseismic data for computing ES are routinely available for all large earthquakes whereas often there are no near-field data.

  7. Bidirectional Modulation of Numerical Magnitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arshad, Qadeer; Nigmatullina, Yuliya; Nigmatullin, Ramil; Asavarut, Paladd; Goga, Usman; Khan, Sarah; Sander, Kaija; Siddiqui, Shuaib; Roberts, R E; Cohen Kadosh, Roi; Bronstein, Adolfo M; Malhotra, Paresh A

    2016-05-01

    Numerical cognition is critical for modern life; however, the precise neural mechanisms underpinning numerical magnitude allocation in humans remain obscure. Based upon previous reports demonstrating the close behavioral and neuro-anatomical relationship between number allocation and spatial attention, we hypothesized that these systems would be subject to similar control mechanisms, namely dynamic interhemispheric competition. We employed a physiological paradigm, combining visual and vestibular stimulation, to induce interhemispheric conflict and subsequent unihemispheric inhibition, as confirmed by transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS). This allowed us to demonstrate the first systematic bidirectional modulation of numerical magnitude toward either higher or lower numbers, independently of either eye movements or spatial attention mediated biases. We incorporated both our findings and those from the most widely accepted theoretical framework for numerical cognition to present a novel unifying computational model that describes how numerical magnitude allocation is subject to dynamic interhemispheric competition. That is, numerical allocation is continually updated in a contextual manner based upon relative magnitude, with the right hemisphere responsible for smaller magnitudes and the left hemisphere for larger magnitudes.

  8. Adaptively smoothed seismicity earthquake forecasts for Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Y. Kagan

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available We present a model for estimation of the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m ≥ 4.95 in Italy. This model is a modified version of that proposed for California, USA, by Helmstetter et al. [2007] and Werner et al. [2010a], and it approximates seismicity using a spatially heterogeneous, temporally homogeneous Poisson point process. The temporal, spatial and magnitude dimensions are entirely decoupled. Magnitudes are independently and identically distributed according to a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We have estimated the spatial distribution of future seismicity by smoothing the locations of past earthquakes listed in two Italian catalogs: a short instrumental catalog, and a longer instrumental and historic catalog. The bandwidth of the adaptive spatial kernel is estimated by optimizing the predictive power of the kernel estimate of the spatial earthquake density in retrospective forecasts. When available and reliable, we used small earthquakes of m ≥ 2.95 to reveal active fault structures and 29 probable future epicenters. By calibrating the model with these two catalogs of different durations to create two forecasts, we intend to quantify the loss (or gain of predictability incurred when only a short, but recent, data record is available. Both forecasts were scaled to five and ten years, and have been submitted to the Italian prospective forecasting experiment of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP. An earlier forecast from the model was submitted by Helmstetter et al. [2007] to the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM experiment in California, and with more than half of the five-year experimental period over, the forecast has performed better than the others.

  9. Small Stress Change Triggering a Big Earthquake: a Test of the Critical Point Hypothesis for Earthquakes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    万永革; 吴忠良; 周公威

    2003-01-01

    Whether or not a small stress change can trigger a big earthquake is one of the most important problems related to the critical point hypothesis for earthquakes. We investigate global earthquakes with different focal mechanisms which have different levels of ambient shear stress. This ambient stress level is the stress level required by the earthquakes for their occurrence. Earthquake pairs are studied to see whether the occurrence of the preceding event encourages the occurrence of the succeeding one in terms of the Coulomb stress triggering. It is observed that the stress triggering effect produced by the change of Coulomb failure stress in the same order of magnitudes,about 10-2 MPa, is distinctly different for different focal mechanisms, and thus for different ambient stress levels.For non-strike-slip earthquakes with a relatively low ambient stress level, the triggering effect is more evident,while for strike-slip earthquakes with a relatively high ambient stress level, there is no evident triggering effect.This water level test provides an observational support to the critical point hypothesis for earthquakes.

  10. Accurate Location of the Yao'an Earthquake Sequence and the Yongsheng Earthquake Sequence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Xinling; Liu Jie; Zhang Guomin; Zhao Cuiping

    2006-01-01

    The Yao'an Ms6.5 earthquake occurred on Jan. 15, 2000 and the Yongsheng Ms6.0 earthquake occurred on Oct. 27, 2001 in Yunnan Province, China. They are both located in the middle of the Dian block. Their epicenters are close to each other, the tectonic and strain characters of the earthquakes were similar, and there were many aftershocks after the two main shocks. In order to further study the spatial-temporal distributions and fault rupture characters of the main shocks and aftershocks, the latter are located using the Geiger earthquake location algorithm (Geiger) and the double difference earthquake location algorithm (DD) based on the seismic phase data of the two earthquake sequences. They were recorded by two Near Source Digital Seismic Networks (YNSSN and YSNSSN) deployed by the Yunnan Seismological Bureau (YNSB). Then, two main shock parameters were relocated using DD based on the data of larger magnitude aftershocks and the two main shocks that were recorded by the Kunming Regional Digital Seismic Network (KMSN). Combining the spatialtemporal distributions of the two earthquake sequences, the tectonic and strain characters of earthquakes, the rupture processes of the two aftershock sequences along faults are analyzed and discussed contrastively.

  11. Monitoring the Earthquake source process in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann, Robert B.; Benz, H.; Ammon, C.J.

    2011-01-01

    With the implementation of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response system (PAGER), rapid determination of earthquake moment magnitude is essential, especially for earthquakes that are felt within the contiguous United States. We report an implementation of moment tensor processing for application to broad, seismically active areas of North America. This effort focuses on the selection of regional crustal velocity models, codification of data quality tests, and the development of procedures for rapid computation of the seismic moment tensor. We systematically apply these techniques to earthquakes with reported magnitude greater than 3.5 in continental North America that are not associated with a tectonic plate boundary. Using the 0.02-0.10 Hz passband, we can usually determine, with few exceptions, moment tensor solutions for earthquakes with M w as small as 3.7. The threshold is significantly influenced by the density of stations, the location of the earthquake relative to the seismic stations and, of course, the signal-to-noise ratio. With the existing permanent broadband stations in North America operated for rapid earthquake response, the seismic moment tensor of most earthquakes that are M w 4 or larger can be routinely computed. As expected the nonuniform spatial pattern of these solutions reflects the seismicity pattern. However, the orientation of the direction of maximum compressive stress and the predominant style of faulting is spatially coherent across large regions of the continent.

  12. Populating the Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, P. S.; Perry, M. R.; Andrews, J. R.; Withers, M. M.; Hellweg, M.; Kim, W. Y.; Shiro, B.; West, M. E.; Storchak, D. A.; Pankow, K. L.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Gee, L. S.; Wolfe, C. J.

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey maintains a repository of earthquake information produced by networks in the Advanced National Seismic System with additional data from the ISC-GEM catalog and many non-U.S. networks through their contributions to the National Earthquake Information Center PDE bulletin. This Comprehensive Catalog (ComCat) provides a unified earthquake product while preserving attribution and contributor information. ComCat contains hypocenter and magnitude information with supporting phase arrival-time and amplitude measurements (when available). Higher-level products such as focal mechanisms, earthquake slip models, "Did You Feel It?" reports, ShakeMaps, PAGER impact estimates, earthquake summary posters, and tectonic summaries are also included. ComCat is updated as new events are processed and the catalog can be accesed at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/. Throughout the past few years, a concentrated effort has been underway to expand ComCat by integrating global and regional historic catalogs. The number of earthquakes in ComCat has more than doubled in the past year and it presently contains over 1.6 million earthquake hypocenters. We will provide an overview of catalog contents and a detailed description of numerous tools and semi-automated quality-control procedures developed to uncover errors including systematic magnitude biases, missing time periods, duplicate postings for the same events, and incorrectly associated events.

  13. Acute myocardial infarction and stress cardiomyopathy following the Christchurch earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Christina; Elliott, John; Troughton, Richard; Frampton, Christopher; Smyth, David; Crozier, Ian; Bridgman, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Christchurch, New Zealand, was struck by 2 major earthquakes at 4:36 am on 4 September 2010, magnitude 7.1 and at 12:51 pm on 22 February 2011, magnitude 6.3. Both events caused widespread destruction. Christchurch Hospital was the region's only acute care hospital. It remained functional following both earthquakes. We were able to examine the effects of the 2 earthquakes on acute cardiac presentations. Patients admitted under Cardiology in Christchurch Hospital 3 week prior to and 5 weeks following both earthquakes were analysed, with corresponding control periods in September 2009 and February 2010. Patients were categorised based on diagnosis: ST elevation myocardial infarction, Non ST elevation myocardial infarction, stress cardiomyopathy, unstable angina, stable angina, non cardiac chest pain, arrhythmia and others. There was a significant increase in overall admissions (pearthquake. This pattern was not seen after the early afternoon February earthquake. Instead, there was a very large number of stress cardiomyopathy admissions with 21 cases (95% CI 2.6-6.4) in 4 days. There had been 6 stress cardiomyopathy cases after the first earthquake (95% CI 0.44-2.62). Statistical analysis showed this to be a significant difference between the earthquakes (pearthquake triggered a large increase in ST elevation myocardial infarction and a few stress cardiomyopathy cases. The early afternoon February earthquake caused significantly more stress cardiomyopathy. Two major earthquakes occurring at different times of day differed in their effect on acute cardiac events.

  14. Constraints on the Size of the Smallest Triggering Earthquake from the ETAS Model, Baath's Law, and Observed Aftershock Sequences

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, D

    2004-01-01

    The physics of earthquake triggering together with simple assumptions of self-similarity impose the existence of a minimum magnitude m0 below which earthquakes do not trigger other earthquakes. Noting that the magnitude md of completeness of seismic catalogs has no reason to be the same as the magnitude m0 of the smallest triggering earthquake, we use quantitative fits and maximum likelihood inversions of observed aftershock sequences as well as Baath's law, compare with ETAS model predictions and thereby constrain the value of m0. We show that the branching ratio $n$ (average number of triggered earthquake per earthquake also equal to the fraction of aftershocks in seismic catalogs) is the key parameter controlling the minimum triggering magnitude m0. Conversely, physical upper bounds for m0 derived from state- and velocity-weakening friction indicate that at least 60 to 70 percent of all earthquakes are aftershocks.

  15. Earthquake Risk Management Strategy Plan Using Nonparametric Estimation of Hazard Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aflaton Amiri

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake risk is defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability studies. The main aims of earthquake risk management are to make plans and apply those for reducing human losses and protect properties from earthquake hazards. Natural risk managers are studying to identify and manage the risk from an earthquake for highly populated urban areas. They want to put some strategic plans for this purpose. Risk managers need some input about these kinds of studies. The prediction of earthquake events such as a input for preparation of earthquake risk management strategy plans were tried to find in this study. A Bayesian approach to earthquake hazard rate estimation is studied and magnitudes of historical earthquakes is used to predict the probability of occurrence of major earthquakes.

  16. Stress drops of induced and tectonic earthquakes in the central United States are indistinguishable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yihe; Ellsworth, William L; Beroza, Gregory C

    2017-08-01

    Induced earthquakes currently pose a significant hazard in the central United States, but there is considerable uncertainty about the severity of their ground motions. We measure stress drops of 39 moderate-magnitude induced and tectonic earthquakes in the central United States and eastern North America. Induced earthquakes, more than half of which are shallower than 5 km, show a comparable median stress drop to tectonic earthquakes in the central United States that are dominantly strike-slip but a lower median stress drop than that of tectonic earthquakes in the eastern North America that are dominantly reverse-faulting. This suggests that ground motion prediction equations developed for tectonic earthquakes can be applied to induced earthquakes if the effects of depth and faulting style are properly considered. Our observation leads to the notion that, similar to tectonic earthquakes, induced earthquakes are driven by tectonic stresses.

  17. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  18. Numerical Analyses of Earthquake Induced Liquefaction and Deformation Behaviour of an Upstream Tailings Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Auchar Zardari

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Much of the seismic activity of northern Sweden consists of micro-earthquakes occurring near postglacial faults. However, larger magnitude earthquakes do occur in Sweden, and earthquake statistics indicate that a magnitude 5 event is likely to occur once every century. This paper presents dynamic analyses of the effects of larger earthquakes on an upstream tailings dam at the Aitik copper mine in northern Sweden. The analyses were performed to evaluate the potential for liquefaction and to assess stability of the dam under two specific earthquakes: a commonly occurring magnitude 3.6 event and a more extreme earthquake of magnitude 5.8. The dynamic analyses were carried out with the finite element program PLAXIS using a recently implemented constitutive model called UBCSAND. The results indicate that the magnitude 5.8 earthquake would likely induce liquefaction in a limited zone located below the ground surface near the embankment dikes. It is interpreted that stability of the dam may not be affected due to the limited extent of the liquefied zone. Both types of earthquakes are predicted to induce tolerable magnitudes of displacements. The results of the postseismic slope stability analysis, performed for a state after a seismic event, suggest that the dam is stable during both the earthquakes.

  19. Evaluating spatial and temporal relationships between an earthquake cluster near Entiat, central Washington, and the large December 1872 Entiat earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocher, Thomas M.; Blakely, Richard J.; Sherrod, Brian

    2017-01-01

    We investigate spatial and temporal relations between an ongoing and prolific seismicity cluster in central Washington, near Entiat, and the 14 December 1872 Entiat earthquake, the largest historic crustal earthquake in Washington. A fault scarp produced by the 1872 earthquake lies within the Entiat cluster; the locations and areas of both the cluster and the estimated 1872 rupture surface are comparable. Seismic intensities and the 1–2 m of coseismic displacement suggest a magnitude range between 6.5 and 7.0 for the 1872 earthquake. Aftershock forecast models for (1) the first several hours following the 1872 earthquake, (2) the largest felt earthquakes from 1900 to 1974, and (3) the seismicity within the Entiat cluster from 1976 through 2016 are also consistent with this magnitude range. Based on this aftershock modeling, most of the current seismicity in the Entiat cluster could represent aftershocks of the 1872 earthquake. Other earthquakes, especially those with long recurrence intervals, have long‐lived aftershock sequences, including the Mw">MwMw 7.5 1891 Nobi earthquake in Japan, with aftershocks continuing 100 yrs after the mainshock. Although we do not rule out ongoing tectonic deformation in this region, a long‐lived aftershock sequence can account for these observations.

  20. Quasi-real time inversion method of three-dimensional epicenter coordinate, trigger time, and magnitude based on CORS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Dongsheng; Chang, Ming; Su, Yong; Hu, Qijun; Yu, Bing

    2016-09-01

    This study explores the quasi-real time inversion principle and precision estimation of three-dimensional coordinates of the epicenter, trigger time and magnitude of earthquakes with the aim to improve traditional methods, which are flawed due to missing information or distortion in the seismograph records. The epicenter, trigger time and magnitude from the Lushan earthquake are inverted and analyzed based on high-frequency GNSS data. The inversion results achieved a high precision, which are consistent with the data published by the China Earthquake Administration. Moreover, it has been proven that the inversion method has good theoretical value and excellent application prospects.

  1. Earthquake mechanism and seafloor deformation for tsunami generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Oglesby, David D.; Beer, Michael; Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis A.; Patelli, Edoardo; Siu-Kui Au, Ivan

    2014-01-01

    Tsunamis are generated in the ocean by rapidly displacing the entire water column over a significant area. The potential energy resulting from this disturbance is balanced with the kinetic energy of the waves during propagation. Only a handful of submarine geologic phenomena can generate tsunamis: large-magnitude earthquakes, large landslides, and volcanic processes. Asteroid and subaerial landslide impacts can generate tsunami waves from above the water. Earthquakes are by far the most common generator of tsunamis. Generally, earthquakes greater than magnitude (M) 6.5–7 can generate tsunamis if they occur beneath an ocean and if they result in predominantly vertical displacement. One of the greatest uncertainties in both deterministic and probabilistic hazard assessments of tsunamis is computing seafloor deformation for earthquakes of a given magnitude.

  2. Earthquake forecasting during the complex Amatrice-Norcia seismic sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, Warner; Taroni, Matteo; Falcone, Giuseppe

    2017-01-01

    Earthquake forecasting is the ultimate challenge for seismologists, because it condenses the scientific knowledge about the earthquake occurrence process, and it is an essential component of any sound risk mitigation planning. It is commonly assumed that, in the short term, trustworthy earthquake forecasts are possible only for typical aftershock sequences, where the largest shock is followed by many smaller earthquakes that decay with time according to the Omori power law. We show that the current Italian operational earthquake forecasting system issued statistically reliable and skillful space-time-magnitude forecasts of the largest earthquakes during the complex 2016–2017 Amatrice-Norcia sequence, which is characterized by several bursts of seismicity and a significant deviation from the Omori law. This capability to deliver statistically reliable forecasts is an essential component of any program to assist public decision-makers and citizens in the challenging risk management of complex seismic sequences.

  3. Mechanics of Multifault Earthquake Ruptures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, J. M.; Oskin, M. E.; Teran, O.

    2015-12-01

    The 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake of magnitude Mw 7.2 produced the most complex rupture ever documented on the Pacific-North American plate margin, and the network of high- and low-angle faults activated in the event record systematic changes in kinematics with fault orientation. Individual faults have a broad and continuous spectrum of slip sense ranging from endmember dextral strike slip to normal slip, and even faults with thrust sense of dip slip were commonly observed in the aftershock sequence. Patterns of coseismic slip are consistent with three-dimensional constrictional strain and show that integrated transtensional shearing can be accommodated in a single earthquake. Stress inversions of coseismic surface rupture and aftershock focal mechanisms define two coaxial, but permuted stress states. The maximum (σ1) and intermediate (σ2) principal stresses are close in magnitude, but flip orientations due to topography- and density-controlled gradients in lithostatic load along the length of the rupture. Although most large earthquakes throughout the world activate slip on multiple faults, the mechanical conditions of their genesis remain poorly understood. Our work attempts to answer several key questions. 1) Why do complex fault systems exist? They must do something that simple, optimally-oriented fault systems cannot because the two types of faults are commonly located in close proximity. 2) How are faults with diverse orientations and slip senses prepared throughout the interseismic period to fail spontaneously together in a single earthquake? 3) Can a single stress state produce multi-fault failure? 4) Are variations in pore pressure, friction and cohesion required to produce simultaneous rupture? 5) How is the fabric of surface rupture affected by variations in orientation, kinematics, total geologic slip and fault zone architecture?

  4. Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of MS=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘蒲雄; 郑大林; 车时; 潘怀文; 刘桂萍; 杨立明

    2003-01-01

    A great earthquake of MS=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2(N and 90.90E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of MS=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with MS≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of MS=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.

  5. Calibration de la magnitude absolue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, A. E.; Mennessier, M. O.

    Les parallaxes mesurées par Hipparcos permettront d'obtenir des magnitudes absolues individuelles meilleures que ±0m4 pour les étoiles placées dans un volume de rayon inférieur à 150 pc environ autour du soleil. Les algorithmes développés dans le cadre de l'exploitation des données d'Hipparcos, basés sur la méthode de maximum de vraisemblance, permettent non seulement de faire une estimation de la magnitude absolue moyenne d'un groupe physiquement homogène d'étoiles, de son comportement cinématique et de sa distribution spatiale mais aussi d'estimer une magnitude absolue individuelle pour chaque étoile de l'échantillon considéré.

  6. The 1868 Hayward fault, California, earthquake: Implications for earthquake scaling relations on partially creeping faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hough, Susan E.; Martin, Stacey

    2015-01-01

    The 21 October 1868 Hayward, California, earthquake is among the best-characterized historical earthquakes in California. In contrast to many other moderate-to-large historical events, the causative fault is clearly established. Published magnitude estimates have been fairly consistent, ranging from 6.8 to 7.2, with 95% confidence limits including values as low as 6.5. The magnitude is of particular importance for assessment of seismic hazard associated with the Hayward fault and, more generally, to develop appropriate magnitude–rupture length scaling relations for partially creeping faults. The recent reevaluation of archival accounts by Boatwright and Bundock (2008), together with the growing volume of well-calibrated intensity data from the U.S. Geological Survey “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system, provide an opportunity to revisit and refine the magnitude estimate. In this study, we estimate the magnitude using two different methods that use DYFI data as calibration. Both approaches yield preferred magnitude estimates of 6.3–6.6, assuming an average stress drop. A consideration of data limitations associated with settlement patterns increases the range to 6.3–6.7, with a preferred estimate of 6.5. Although magnitude estimates for historical earthquakes are inevitably uncertain, we conclude that, at a minimum, a lower-magnitude estimate represents a credible alternative interpretation of available data. We further discuss implications of our results for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment from partially creeping faults.

  7. Normal fault earthquakes or graviquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doglioni, C.; Carminati, E.; Petricca, P.; Riguzzi, F.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquakes are dissipation of energy throughout elastic waves. Canonically is the elastic energy accumulated during the interseismic period. However, in crustal extensional settings, gravity is the main energy source for hangingwall fault collapsing. Gravitational potential is about 100 times larger than the observed magnitude, far more than enough to explain the earthquake. Therefore, normal faults have a different mechanism of energy accumulation and dissipation (graviquakes) with respect to other tectonic settings (strike-slip and contractional), where elastic energy allows motion even against gravity. The bigger the involved volume, the larger is their magnitude. The steeper the normal fault, the larger is the vertical displacement and the larger is the seismic energy released. Normal faults activate preferentially at about 60° but they can be shallower in low friction rocks. In low static friction rocks, the fault may partly creep dissipating gravitational energy without releasing great amount of seismic energy. The maximum volume involved by graviquakes is smaller than the other tectonic settings, being the activated fault at most about three times the hypocentre depth, explaining their higher b-value and the lower magnitude of the largest recorded events. Having different phenomenology, graviquakes show peculiar precursors. PMID:26169163

  8. Where was the 1898 Mare Island Earthquake? Insights from the 2014 South Napa Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hough, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 South Napa earthquake provides an opportunity to reconsider the Mare Island earthquake of 31 March 1898, which caused severe damage to buildings at a Navy yard on the island. Revising archival accounts of the 1898 earthquake, I estimate a lower intensity magnitude, 5.8, than the value in the current Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) catalog (6.4). However, I note that intensity magnitude can differ from Mw by upwards of half a unit depending on stress drop, which for a historical earthquake is unknowable. In the aftermath of the 2014 earthquake, there has been speculation that apparently severe effects on Mare Island in 1898 were due to the vulnerability of local structures. No surface rupture has ever been identified from the 1898 event, which is commonly associated with the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault system, some 10 km west of Mare Island (e.g., Parsons et al., 2003). Reconsideration of detailed archival accounts of the 1898 earthquake, together with a comparison of the intensity distributions for the two earthquakes, points to genuinely severe, likely near-field ground motions on Mare Island. The 2014 earthquake did cause significant damage to older brick buildings on Mare Island, but the level of damage does not match the severity of documented damage in 1898. The high intensity files for the two earthquakes are more over spatially shifted, with the centroid of the 2014 distribution near the town of Napa and that of the 1898 distribution near Mare Island, east of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek system. I conclude that the 1898 Mare Island earthquake was centered on or near Mare Island, possibly involving rupture of one or both strands of the Franklin fault, a low-slip-rate fault sub-parallel to the Rodgers Creek fault to the west and the West Napa fault to the east. I estimate Mw5.8 assuming an average stress drop; data are also consistent with Mw6.4 if stress drop was a factor of ≈3 lower than average for California earthquakes. I

  9. Scaling A Moment-Rate Function For Small To Large Magnitude Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archuleta, Ralph; Ji, Chen

    2017-04-01

    Since the 1980's seismologists have recognized that peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) scale differently with magnitude for large and moderate earthquakes. In a recent paper (Archuleta and Ji, GRL 2016) we introduced an apparent moment-rate function (aMRF) that accurately predicts the scaling with magnitude of PGA, PGV, PWA (Wood-Anderson Displacement) and the ratio PGA/2πPGV (dominant frequency) for earthquakes 3.3 ≤ M ≤ 5.3. This apparent moment-rate function is controlled by two temporal parameters, tp and td, which are related to the time for the moment-rate function to reach its peak amplitude and the total duration of the earthquake, respectively. These two temporal parameters lead to a Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) of displacement that has two corners in between which the spectral amplitudes decay as 1/f, f denotes frequency. At higher or lower frequencies, the FAS of the aMRF looks like a single-corner Aki-Brune omega squared spectrum. However, in the presence of attenuation the higher corner is almost certainly masked. Attempting to correct the spectrum to an Aki-Brune omega-squared spectrum will produce an "apparent" corner frequency that falls between the double corner frequency of the aMRF. We reason that the two corners of the aMRF are the reason that seismologists deduce a stress drop (e.g., Allmann and Shearer, JGR 2009) that is generally much smaller than the stress parameter used to produce ground motions from stochastic simulations (e.g., Boore, 2003 Pageoph.). The presence of two corners for the smaller magnitude earthquakes leads to several questions. Can deconvolution be successfully used to determine scaling from small to large earthquakes? Equivalently will large earthquakes have a double corner? If large earthquakes are the sum of many smaller magnitude earthquakes, what should the displacement FAS look like for a large magnitude earthquake? Can a combination of such a double-corner spectrum and random

  10. Liquefaction potential as a result of HayWired earthquake scenario mainshock (April 18, 2018) shaking in Alameda and Santa Clara Counties, San Francisco Bay area, California

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — These data are a geospatial representation of liquefaction potential for the HayWired earthquake scenario, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault...

  11. Short-Term Foreshocks and Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadopoulos, G. A.; Minadakis, G.; Orfanogiannaki, K.

    2016-12-01

    Foreshock recognition before main shocks depends on various factors, e.g. geophysical, catalogue completeness, foreshock definition, spatiotemporal windows. Foreshocks move towards the main shock epicenter, their number increases with the inverse of time, their b-value drops. However, only in very few single foreshock sequences these 3-D patterns were recognized at the same time, e.g. before the 2009 L' Aquila (Italy) earthquake (Mw6.3) and the 2010, 2014 and 2015 major earthquakes (Mw8+) that ruptured at the subduction zone of Chile. For the first time we found statistically significant 3-D foreshock patterns before small-to-moderate earthquakes. We present two good examples of earthquakes occurring on 4 March 2012 (Mw5.2) and 3 July 2013 (Mw4.8) in Athos and Polyphyto, both in North Greece. The great similarity with the patterns found before strong and major earthquakes indicates that the foreshock process is scale invariant in a wide magnitude range. It is likely that the process is independent of the faulting type at least for dip-slip faulting. There is also a trend of the main shock magnitude to scale with the foreshock area. These findings imply that foreshock activity is likely governed by pattern universality which may also reflect universality in the deformation process thus opening new ways for the foreshock utilization in the prediction of the main shock.

  12. The USGS Earthquake Notification Service (ENS): Customizable notifications of earthquakes around the globe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, Lisa A.; Wald, David J.; Schwarz, Stan; Presgrave, Bruce; Earle, Paul S.; Martinez, Eric; Oppenheimer, David

    2008-01-01

    At the beginning of 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) introduced a new automated Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) to take the place of the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) "Bigquake" system and the various other individual EHP e-mail list-servers for separate regions in the United States. These included northern California, southern California, and the central and eastern United States. ENS is a "one-stop shopping" system that allows Internet users to subscribe to flexible and customizable notifications for earthquakes anywhere in the world. The customization capability allows users to define the what (magnitude threshold), the when (day and night thresholds), and the where (specific regions) for their notifications. Customization is achieved by employing a per-user based request profile, allowing the notifications to be tailored for each individual's requirements. Such earthquake-parameter-specific custom delivery was not possible with simple e-mail list-servers. Now that event and user profiles are in a structured query language (SQL) database, additional flexibility is possible. At the time of this writing, ENS had more than 114,000 subscribers, with more than 200,000 separate user profiles. On a typical day, more than 188,000 messages get sent to a variety of widely distributed users for a wide range of earthquake locations and magnitudes. The purpose of this article is to describe how ENS works, highlight the features it offers, and summarize plans for future developments.

  13. Understanding Magnitudes to Understand Fractions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Florence

    2016-01-01

    Fractions are known to be difficult to learn and difficult to teach, yet they are vital for students to have access to further mathematical concepts. This article uses evidence to support teachers employing teaching methods that focus on the conceptual understanding of the magnitude of fractions.

  14. Measuring the size of mining-induced earthquakes: a proposal

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ebrahim-Trollope, R

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Seismology. Academic Press, New York Gutenberg, B. and Richter C.F. (1956). Magnitude and energy of earthquakes, Annali di geofisica, IX, pp. 1 - 15. Hanks, T.C. and Kanamori, H., (1970). A moment magnitude scale, J Geophys. Res., 84, 2348...

  15. Induced Seismicity: What is the Size of the Largest Expected Earthquake?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoeller, G.; Holschneider, M.

    2014-12-01

    The injections of fluids is a well-known origin for the triggering of earthquake sequences. The growing number of projects related to enhanced geothermal systems, fracking and others has led to the question, which maximum earthquake magnitude can be expected as a consequence of fluid injection. This question is addressed from the perspective of statistical analysis. Using basic empirical laws of earthquake statistics, we estimate the magnitude MT of the maximum expected earthquake in a pre-defined future time window T. A case study of the fluid injection site at Paradox Valley, Colorado, USA, demonstrates that the magnitude m=4.3 of the largest observed earthquake on 27 May 2000 is lying very well within the expectation from past seismicity without adjusting any parameters. Vice versa, for a given maximum tolerable earthquake at an injection site, we can constrain the corresponding amount of injected fluids that must not be exceeded within pre-defined confidence bounds.

  16. A Stochastical Model for the Earthquake Occurences in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gamze ÖZEL

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The fields of seismology and earthquake engineering deal with the studies for earthquake predictions, hazard assessments and the prevention of possible damage due to destructive earthquakes. Various kind of statistical models are used for the earthquake occurences. The most familiar model is a Poisson process for random series of events. However, the Poisson process is insufficient if the incorporation of more information about the seismic process is required. Recently, a compound Poisson process has been proposed an alternative to the Poisson process for the earthquake analysis. In this study, the compound Poisson process is introduced and the probabilities of earthquake numbers with magnitude M ³ 5.0 which will occur within 3 and 6 months; 5 and 10 years have been obtained for Turkey from the Poisson process. Then, it is shown that the aftershock sequences follow a geometric distribution. By this way, the probabilities of total number of aftershocks which will occur within one year and two years with magnitude M ³ 4.0 in Turkey are obtained from the compound Poisson process. Finally, the expected values of main shocks and total number of aftershocks which will occur within one year and two years are computed. The results show that the earthquake occurrence probability with magnitude M ³ 5.0 increases, whereas the probability of total number of aftershocks with magnitude M ³ 4.0 decreases in Turkey as the time increases. Besides, the total aftershock number with magnitude M ³ 4.0 , after a main shock with magnitude M ³ 5.0, equals to zero with the probability 0.48 within one year. The findings also indicate that approximately 130 main shocks with M ³ 5.0 , 28 aftershocks with magnitude M ³ 4.0 are expected within 30 years in Turkey.

  17. Retrospective stress-forecasting of earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yuan; Crampin, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    Observations of changes in azimuthally varying shear-wave splitting (SWS) above swarms of small earthquakes monitor stress-induced changes to the stress-aligned vertical microcracks pervading the upper crust, lower crust, and uppermost ~400km of the mantle. (The microcracks are intergranular films of hydrolysed melt in the mantle.) Earthquakes release stress, and an appropriate amount of stress for the relevant magnitude must accumulate before each event. Iceland is on an extension of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where two transform zones, uniquely run onshore. These onshore transform zones provide semi-continuous swarms of small earthquakes, which are the only place worldwide where SWS can be routinely monitored. Elsewhere SWS must be monitored above temporally-active occasional swarms of small earthquakes, or in infrequent SKS and other teleseismic reflections from the mantle. Observations of changes in SWS time-delays are attributed to stress-induced changes in crack aspect-ratios allowing stress-accumulation and stress-relaxation to be identified. Monitoring SWS in SW Iceland in 1988, stress-accumulation before an impending earthquake was recognised and emails were exchanged between the University of Edinburgh (EU) and the Iceland Meteorological Office (IMO). On 10th November 1988, EU emailed IMO that a M5 earthquake could occur soon on a seismically-active fault plane where seismicity was still continuing following a M5.1 earthquake six-months earlier. Three-days later, IMO emailed EU that a M5 earthquake had just occurred on the specified fault-plane. We suggest this is a successful earthquake stress-forecast, where we refer to the procedure as stress-forecasting earthquakes as opposed to predicting or forecasting to emphasise the different formalism. Lack of funds has prevented us monitoring SWS on Iceland seismograms, however, we have identified similar characteristic behaviour of SWS time-delays above swarms of small earthquakes which have enabled us to

  18. Earthquake Damage - General

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — An earthquake is the motion or trembling of the ground produced by sudden displacement of rock in the Earth's crust. Earthquakes result from crustal strain,...

  19. Earthquake Notification Service

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) is a free service that sends you automated notifications to your email or cell phone when earthquakes happen.

  20. Earthquakes: hydrogeochemical precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.

  1. Earthquakes in Southern California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — There have been many earthquake occurrences in Southern California. This set of slides shows earthquake damage from the following events: Imperial Valley, 1979,...

  2. The Upper Limit Size of Reservoir-Induced Earthquakes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Huang Fuqiong; Zhang Yan; Wu Zhongliang; Ma Lijie

    2008-01-01

    We showed the relation between the magnitude of induced earthquake and the reservoir storage and dam height based on the global catalog from 1967 to 1989 compiled by Ding Yuanzhang (1989). By multiplying reservoir storage with dam height, we introduced a new parameter named EE. We found that the cases with specific EE and magnitude do not exceed a limit. Based on the discussion of its physics, we called EE the equivalent energy. We considered this limit as the upper limit of magnitude for reservoir-induced earthquakes. The result was proved by the recent cases occurring in China. This size limitation can be used as a helpful consideration for reservoir design.

  3. Natural time analysis of the Centennial Earthquake Catalog

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sarlis, N. V.; Christopoulos, S.-R. G. [Physics Department, Solid State Section and Solid Earth Physics Institute, University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos 157 84, Athens (Greece)

    2012-06-15

    By using the most recent version (1900-2007) of the Centennial Earthquake Catalog, we examine the properties of the global seismicity. Natural time analysis reveals that the fluctuations of the order parameter {kappa}{sub 1} of seismicity exhibit for at least three orders of magnitude a characteristic feature similar to that of the order parameter for other equilibrium or non-equilibrium critical systems-including self-organized critical systems. Moreover, we find non-trivial magnitude correlations for earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 7.

  4. Natural time analysis of the Centennial Earthquake Catalog.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarlis, N V; Christopoulos, S-R G

    2012-06-01

    By using the most recent version (1900-2007) of the Centennial Earthquake Catalog, we examine the properties of the global seismicity. Natural time analysis reveals that the fluctuations of the order parameter κ(1) of seismicity exhibit for at least three orders of magnitude a characteristic feature similar to that of the order parameter for other equilibrium or non-equilibrium critical systems-including self-organized critical systems. Moreover, we find non-trivial magnitude correlations for earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 7.

  5. New earthquake catalog reexamines Hawaii's seismic history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Thomas L.; Klein, Fred W.

    2000-01-01

    On April 2,1868, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 occurred beneath the southern part of the island of Hawaii. The quake, which was felt throughout all of the Hawaiian Islands, had a Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity of XII near its source.The destruction caused by a quake that large is nearly complete. A landslide triggered by the quake buried a small village, killing 31 people, and a tsunami that swept over coastal settlements added to the death toll. We know as much as we do about this and other early earthquakes thanks to detailed records kept by Hawaiian missionaries, including the remarkable diary maintained by the Lyman family that documented every earthquake felt at their home in Hilo between 1833 and 1917 [Wyss et al., 1992].Our analysis of these and other historical records indicates that Hawaii was at least as intensely seismic in the 19th century and first half of the 20th century as in its more recent past, with 26 M ≥6.0 earthquakes occurring from 1823 to 1903 and 20 M ≥6.0 earthquakes from 1904 to 1959. Just five M ≥6.0 earthquakes occurred from 1960 to 1999. The potential damage caused by a repeat of some of the larger historic events could be catastrophic today.

  6. EARTHQUAKE SCALING PARADOX

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU ZHONG-LIANG

    2001-01-01

    Two measures of earthquakes, the seismic moment and the broadband radiated energy, show completely different scaling relations. For shallow earthquakes worldwide from January 1987 to December 1998, the frequency distribution of the seismic moment shows a clear kink between moderate and large earthquakes, as revealed by previous works. But the frequency distribution of the broadband radiated energy shows a single power law, a classical Gutenberg-Richter relation. This inconsistency raises a paradox in the self-organized criticality model of earthquakes.

  7. Smartphone-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, B. A.; Baez, J. C.; Ericksen, T.; Barrientos, S. E.; Minson, S. E.; Duncan, C.; Guillemot, C.; Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Cochran, E. S.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Glennie, C. L.; Dueitt, J.; Parra, H.

    2016-12-01

    Many locations around the world face high seismic hazard, but do not have the resources required to establish traditional earthquake and tsunami warning systems (E/TEW) that utilize scientific grade seismological sensors. MEMs accelerometers and GPS chips embedded in, or added inexpensively to, smartphones are sensitive enough to provide robust E/TEW if they are deployed in sufficient numbers. We report on a pilot project in Chile, one of the most productive earthquake regions world-wide. There, magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes occurring roughly every 1.5 years and larger tsunamigenic events pose significant local and trans-Pacific hazard. The smartphone-based network described here is being deployed in parallel to the build-out of a scientific-grade network for E/TEW. Our sensor package comprises a smartphone with internal MEMS and an external GPS chipset that provides satellite-based augmented positioning and phase-smoothing. Each station is independent of local infrastructure, they are solar-powered and rely on cellular SIM cards for communications. An Android app performs initial onboard processing and transmits both accelerometer and GPS data to a server employing the FinDer-BEFORES algorithm to detect earthquakes, producing an acceleration-based line source model for smaller magnitude earthquakes or a joint seismic-geodetic finite-fault distributed slip model for sufficiently large magnitude earthquakes. Either source model provides accurate ground shaking forecasts, while distributed slip models for larger offshore earthquakes can be used to infer seafloor deformation for local tsunami warning. The network will comprise 50 stations by Sept. 2016 and 100 stations by Dec. 2016. Since Nov. 2015, batch processing has detected, located, and estimated the magnitude for Mw>5 earthquakes. Operational since June, 2016, we have successfully detected two earthquakes > M5 (M5.5, M5.1) that occurred within 100km of our network while producing zero false alarms.

  8. The Lushan earthquake and the giant panda: impacts and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zejun; Yuan, Shibin; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Mingchun

    2014-06-01

    Earthquakes not only result in a great loss of human life and property, but also have profound effects on the Earth's biodiversity. The Lushan earthquake occurred on 20 Apr 2013, with a magnitude of 7.0 and an intensity of 9.0 degrees. A distance of 17.0 km from its epicenter to the nearest distribution site of giant pandas recorded in the Third National Survey was determined. Making use of research on the Wenchuan earthquake (with a magnitude of 8.0), which occurred approximately 5 years ago, we briefly analyze the impacts of the Lushan earthquake on giant pandas and their habitat. An earthquake may interrupt ongoing behaviors of giant pandas and may also cause injury or death. In addition, an earthquake can damage conservation facilities for pandas, and result in further habitat fragmentation and degradation. However, from a historical point of view, the impacts of human activities on giant pandas and their habitat may, in fact, far outweigh those of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Measures taken to promote habitat restoration and conservation network reconstruction in earthquake-affected areas should be based on requirements of giant pandas, not those of humans. © 2013 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  9. Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, Canan Lacin

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

  10. Earthquake and Schools. [Videotape].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DC.

    Designing schools to make them more earthquake resistant and protect children from the catastrophic collapse of the school building is discussed in this videotape. It reveals that 44 of the 50 U.S. states are vulnerable to earthquake, but most schools are structurally unprepared to take on the stresses that earthquakes exert. The cost to the…

  11. School Safety and Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwelley, Laura; Tucker, Brian; Fernandez, Jeanette

    1997-01-01

    A recent assessment of earthquake risk to Quito, Ecuador, concluded that many of its public schools are vulnerable to collapse during major earthquakes. A subsequent examination of 60 buildings identified 15 high-risk buildings. These schools were retrofitted to meet standards that would prevent injury even during Quito's largest earthquakes. US…

  12. Redefining Earthquakes and the Earthquake Machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubenthal, Michael; Braile, Larry; Taber, John

    2008-01-01

    The Earthquake Machine (EML), a mechanical model of stick-slip fault systems, can increase student engagement and facilitate opportunities to participate in the scientific process. This article introduces the EML model and an activity that challenges ninth-grade students' misconceptions about earthquakes. The activity emphasizes the role of models…

  13. Redefining Earthquakes and the Earthquake Machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubenthal, Michael; Braile, Larry; Taber, John

    2008-01-01

    The Earthquake Machine (EML), a mechanical model of stick-slip fault systems, can increase student engagement and facilitate opportunities to participate in the scientific process. This article introduces the EML model and an activity that challenges ninth-grade students' misconceptions about earthquakes. The activity emphasizes the role of models…

  14. Tectonic stress - Models and magnitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, S. C.; Bergman, E. A.; Richardson, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    It is shown that global data on directions of principal stresses in plate interiors can serve as a test of possible plate tectonic force models. Such tests performed to date favor force models in which ridge pushing forces play a significant role. For such models the general magnitude of regional deviatoric stresses is comparable to the 200-300 bar compressive stress exerted by spreading ridges. An alternative approach to estimating magnitudes of regional deviatoric stresses from stress orientations is to seek regions of local stress either demonstrably smaller than or larger than the regional stresses. The regional stresses in oceanic intraplate regions are larger than the 100-bar compression exerted by the Ninetyeast Ridge and less than the bending stresses (not less than 1 kbar) beneath Hawaii.

  15. Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

  16. Subject position affects EEG magnitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rice, Justin K; Rorden, Christopher; Little, Jessica S; Parra, Lucas C

    2013-01-01

    EEG (electroencephalography) has been used for decades in thousands of research studies and is today a routine clinical tool despite the small magnitude of measured scalp potentials. It is widely accepted that the currents originating in the brain are strongly influenced by the high resistivity of skull bone, but it is less well known that the thin layer of CSF (cerebrospinal fluid) has perhaps an even more important effect on EEG scalp magnitude by spatially blurring the signals. Here it is shown that brain shift and the resulting small changes in CSF layer thickness, induced by changing the subject's position, have a significant effect on EEG signal magnitudes in several standard visual paradigms. For spatially incoherent high-frequency activity the effect produced by switching from prone to supine can be dramatic, increasing occipital signal power by several times for some subjects (on average 80%). MRI measurements showed that the occipital CSF layer between the brain and skull decreases by approximately 30% in thickness when a subject moves from prone to supine position. A multiple dipole model demonstrated that this can indeed lead to occipital EEG signal power increases in the same direction and order of magnitude as those observed here. These results suggest that future EEG studies should control for subjects' posture, and that some studies may consider placing their subjects into the most favorable position for the experiment. These findings also imply that special consideration should be given to EEG measurements from subjects with brain atrophy due to normal aging or neurodegenerative diseases, since the resulting increase in CSF layer thickness could profoundly decrease scalp potential measurements.

  17. Acute myocardial infarction and stress cardiomyopathy following the Christchurch earthquakes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Chan

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Christchurch, New Zealand, was struck by 2 major earthquakes at 4:36 am on 4 September 2010, magnitude 7.1 and at 12:51 pm on 22 February 2011, magnitude 6.3. Both events caused widespread destruction. Christchurch Hospital was the region's only acute care hospital. It remained functional following both earthquakes. We were able to examine the effects of the 2 earthquakes on acute cardiac presentations. METHODS: Patients admitted under Cardiology in Christchurch Hospital 3 week prior to and 5 weeks following both earthquakes were analysed, with corresponding control periods in September 2009 and February 2010. Patients were categorised based on diagnosis: ST elevation myocardial infarction, Non ST elevation myocardial infarction, stress cardiomyopathy, unstable angina, stable angina, non cardiac chest pain, arrhythmia and others. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in overall admissions (p<0.003, ST elevation myocardial infarction (p<0.016, and non cardiac chest pain (p<0.022 in the first 2 weeks following the early morning September earthquake. This pattern was not seen after the early afternoon February earthquake. Instead, there was a very large number of stress cardiomyopathy admissions with 21 cases (95% CI 2.6-6.4 in 4 days. There had been 6 stress cardiomyopathy cases after the first earthquake (95% CI 0.44-2.62. Statistical analysis showed this to be a significant difference between the earthquakes (p<0.05. CONCLUSION: The early morning September earthquake triggered a large increase in ST elevation myocardial infarction and a few stress cardiomyopathy cases. The early afternoon February earthquake caused significantly more stress cardiomyopathy. Two major earthquakes occurring at different times of day differed in their effect on acute cardiac events.

  18. Formulation and Application of a Physically-Based Rupture Probability Model for Large Earthquakes on Subduction Zones: A Case Study of Earthquakes on Nazca Plate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahdyiar, M.; Galgana, G.; Shen-Tu, B.; Klein, E.; Pontbriand, C. W.

    2014-12-01

    Most time dependent rupture probability (TDRP) models are basically designed for a single-mode rupture, i.e. a single characteristic earthquake on a fault. However, most subduction zones rupture in complex patterns that create overlapping earthquakes of different magnitudes. Additionally, the limited historic earthquake data does not provide sufficient information to estimate reliable mean recurrence intervals for earthquakes. This makes it difficult to identify a single characteristic earthquake for TDRP analysis. Physical models based on geodetic data have been successfully used to obtain information on the state of coupling and slip deficit rates for subduction zones. Coupling information provides valuable insight into the complexity of subduction zone rupture processes. In this study we present a TDRP model that is formulated based on subduction zone slip deficit rate distribution. A subduction zone is represented by an integrated network of cells. Each cell ruptures multiple times from numerous earthquakes that have overlapping rupture areas. The rate of rupture for each cell is calculated using a moment balance concept that is calibrated based on historic earthquake data. The information in conjunction with estimates of coseismic slip from past earthquakes is used to formulate time dependent rupture probability models for cells. Earthquakes on the subduction zone and their rupture probabilities are calculated by integrating different combinations of cells. The resulting rupture probability estimates are fully consistent with the state of coupling of the subduction zone and the regional and local earthquake history as the model takes into account the impact of all large (M>7.5) earthquakes on the subduction zone. The granular rupture model as developed in this study allows estimating rupture probabilities for large earthquakes other than just a single characteristic magnitude earthquake. This provides a general framework for formulating physically

  19. Storm sudden commencements and earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavrov, Ivan; Sobisevich, Aleksey; Guglielmi, Anatol

    2015-03-01

    We have investigated statistically the problem of possible impact of the geomagnetic storm sudden com-mencement (SSC) on the global seismic activity. SSC are used as reference points for comparative analysis of seismicity by the method of superposed epoch. We selected 405 earthquakes from 1973 to 2010 with M˜5 magnitudes from a representative part of USGS Catalog. The comparative analysis of seismicity was carried out at the intervals of ˜60 min relative to the reference point. With a high degree of reliability, it was found that before the reference point the number of earthquakes is noticeably greater than after it. In other words, the global seismicity is suppressed by SSC. We refer to some studies in which the chemical, thermal and force mechanisms of the electromagnetic field action on rocks are discussed. We emphasize the incompleteness of the study concerning the correlation between SSC and earthquakes because we still do not succeed in understanding and interpreting the relationship in terms of physics and mathematics. The study need to be continued to solve this problem of interest and importance.

  20. Revisiting the Canterbury earthquake sequence after the 14 February 2016 Mw 5.7 event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Matthew W.; Furlong, Kevin P.

    2016-07-01

    On 14 February 2016, an Mw 5.7 (GNS Science moment magnitude) earthquake ruptured offshore east of Christchurch, New Zealand. This earthquake occurred in an area that had previously experienced significant seismicity from 2010 to 2012 during the Canterbury earthquake sequence, starting with the 2010 Mw 7.0 Darfield earthquake and including four Mw ~6.0 earthquakes near Christchurch. We determine source parameters for the February 2016 event and its aftershocks, relocate the recent events along with the Canterbury earthquakes, and compute Coulomb stress changes resolved onto the recent events and throughout the greater Christchurch region. Because the February 2016 earthquake occurred close to previous seismicity, the Coulomb stress changes resolved onto its nodal planes are uncertain. However, in the greater Christchurch region, there are areas that remain positively loaded, including beneath the city of Christchurch. The recent earthquake and regional stress changes suggest that faults in these regions may pose a continuing seismic hazard.

  1. Prediction of earthquake-triggered landslide event sizes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Anika; Havenith, Hans-Balder; Schlögel, Romy

    2016-04-01

    Seismically induced landslides are a major environmental effect of earthquakes, which may significantly contribute to related losses. Moreover, in paleoseismology landslide event sizes are an important proxy for the estimation of the intensity and magnitude of past earthquakes and thus allowing us to improve seismic hazard assessment over longer terms. Not only earthquake intensity, but also factors such as the fault characteristics, topography, climatic conditions and the geological environment have a major impact on the intensity and spatial distribution of earthquake induced landslides. We present here a review of factors contributing to earthquake triggered slope failures based on an "event-by-event" classification approach. The objective of this analysis is to enable the short-term prediction of earthquake triggered landslide event sizes in terms of numbers and size of the affected area right after an earthquake event occurred. Five main factors, 'Intensity', 'Fault', 'Topographic energy', 'Climatic conditions' and 'Surface geology' were used to establish a relationship to the number and spatial extend of landslides triggered by an earthquake. The relative weight of these factors was extracted from published data for numerous past earthquakes; topographic inputs were checked in Google Earth and through geographic information systems. Based on well-documented recent earthquakes (e.g. Haiti 2010, Wenchuan 2008) and on older events for which reliable extensive information was available (e.g. Northridge 1994, Loma Prieta 1989, Guatemala 1976, Peru 1970) the combination and relative weight of the factors was calibrated. The calibrated factor combination was then applied to more than 20 earthquake events for which landslide distribution characteristics could be cross-checked. One of our main findings is that the 'Fault' factor, which is based on characteristics of the fault, the surface rupture and its location with respect to mountain areas, has the most important

  2. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran region with focus on maximum magnitude assumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoechner, Andreas; Babeyko, Andrey Y.; Zamora, Natalia

    2016-06-01

    Despite having been rather seismically quiescent for the last decades, the Makran subduction zone is capable of hosting destructive earthquakes and tsunami. In particular, the well-known thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Furthermore, some recent publications discuss rare but significantly larger events at the Makran subduction zone as possible scenarios. We analyze the instrumental and historical seismicity at the subduction plate interface and generate various synthetic earthquake catalogs spanning 300 000 years with varying magnitude-frequency relations. For every event in the catalogs we compute estimated tsunami heights and present the resulting tsunami hazard along the coasts of Pakistan, Iran and Oman in the form of probabilistic tsunami hazard curves. We show how the hazard results depend on variation of the Gutenberg-Richter parameters and especially maximum magnitude assumption.

  3. Anomalous variations in ionospheric TEC prior to the 2011 Japan Ms9. 0 earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu Fuying

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The ionospheric total-electron-content (TEC data provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS network and the VTEC data from the GPS reference stations of Crustal Movement Observational Network of China(CMONC were processed and statistically analyzed to search for earthquake-related TEC anomalies prior to the 2011 magnitude 9.0 earthquake in Japan. Preliminary results showed that anomalous variations occurred 6 – 11 days and 0 – 4 days prior to the earthquake. After considering solar activity, geomagnetic conditions, and proximity in space and time to the earthquake, we tentatively concluded that the anomalous increase on March 5 may be related to the earthquake.

  4. Don't forget about the Christchurch earthquake: Lessons learned from this disaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamburger, Michael W.; Mooney, Walter D.

    2011-01-01

    In the aftermath of the devastating magnitude-9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck the Tohoku region of Japan on March 11, attention quickly turned away from a much smaller, but also highly destructive earthquake that struck the city of Christchurch, New Zealand, just a few weeks earlier, on Feb. 22. Both events are stark reminders of human vulnerability to natural disasters and provide a harsh reality check: Even technologically advanced countries with modern building codes are not immune from earthquake disasters. The Christchurch earthquake carried an additional message: Urban devastation can be triggered even by moderate-sized earthquakes.

  5. How did the earthquake early warning perform for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, M.; Nishimae, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes are the sequence of two major earthquakes occurred in the Kumamoto, South part of Japan, in April 2016. The first earthquake occurred on April, 14 9:26pm with Mj6.5. The second and larger earthquake occurred 27 hours later, on April 16 1:25am with Mj 7.3. About 50 people were killed due to the collapse of housings and landslides. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) properly provided earthquake early warnings (EEW) for both earthquakes: the warning for the April 14 earthquake was issued at 4 seconds after the first P-wave detection, which is 8 seconds after the origin time. The warning for the April 16 earthquake was issued at 4 seconds after the first P-arrival, and 8.5 seconds after the origin time. The blind zone where EEW was not provided before S-wave arrival is about 25km from the epicenter. This range of blind zone is expected for inland earthquakes whose S-P time is relatively short, so the EEW system worked properly as it was designed. The estimated magnitude was 6.5 and 6.9, respectively, when the warning was reported to public, so the performance of the accuracy and speed was satisfactory. The EEW provided other 17 warnings for smaller earthquakes in Kumamoto prefecture in April 2016. 80% of the warnings (14/17) predicted the seismic intensity within plus-minus 1. However, three events overestimated the seismic intensity by more than 1 unit, and two events underestimated the intensity by more than 1 unit. For the underestimated cases, the magnitude was estimated reasonably well with the error less than 0.3, which suggests this underestimation was due to the error in either attenuation relationship or subsurface soil amplification. For the overestimated cases, the magnitude was also overestimated, which suggests the source estimation had a significant error due to multiple aftershocks. We try to improve this performance to the aftershocks by applying the integrated particle filter approach to the JMA strong motion and Hi

  6. Earthquakes of the Central United States, 1795-2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Russell L.

    2003-01-01

    This report describes construction of a list of Central U.S. earthquakes to be shown on a large-format map that is targeted for a non-technical audience. The map shows the locations and sizes of historical earthquakes of magnitude 3.0 or larger over the most seismically active part of the central U.S., including the New Madrid seismic zone. The map shows more than one-half million square kilometers and parts or all of ten States. No existing earthquake catalog had provided current, uniform coverage down to magnitude 3.0, so one had to be made. Consultation with State geological surveys insured compatibility with earthquake lists maintained by them, thereby allowing the surveys and the map to present consistent information to the public.

  7. Bayesian Predictive Distribution for the Magnitude of the Largest Aftershock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shcherbakov, R.

    2014-12-01

    Aftershock sequences, which follow large earthquakes, last hundreds of days and are characterized by well defined frequency-magnitude and spatio-temporal distributions. The largest aftershocks in a sequence constitute significant hazard and can inflict additional damage to infrastructure. Therefore, the estimation of the magnitude of possible largest aftershocks in a sequence is of high importance. In this work, we propose a statistical model based on Bayesian analysis and extreme value statistics to describe the distribution of magnitudes of the largest aftershocks in a sequence. We derive an analytical expression for a Bayesian predictive distribution function for the magnitude of the largest expected aftershock and compute the corresponding confidence intervals. We assume that the occurrence of aftershocks can be modeled, to a good approximation, by a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a temporal event rate given by the modified Omori law. We also assume that the frequency-magnitude statistics of aftershocks can be approximated by Gutenberg-Richter scaling. We apply our analysis to 19 prominent aftershock sequences, which occurred in the last 30 years, in order to compute the Bayesian predictive distributions and the corresponding confidence intervals. In the analysis, we use the information of the early aftershocks in the sequences (in the first 1, 10, and 30 days after the main shock) to estimate retrospectively the confidence intervals for the magnitude of the expected largest aftershocks. We demonstrate by analysing 19 past sequences that in many cases we are able to constrain the magnitudes of the largest aftershocks. For example, this includes the analysis of the Darfield (Christchurch) aftershock sequence. The proposed analysis can be used for the earthquake hazard assessment and forecasting associated with the occurrence of large aftershocks. The improvement in instrumental data associated with early aftershocks can greatly enhance the analysis and

  8. Historical earthquakes and a tsunami in Bohai Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jian

    2007-01-01

    Quantitative analysis on seismicity showed that there are several seismic dense zones in Bohai Sea. These seismic dense zones of modern small earthquakes behave prominent NE orientation, although a seismic dense zone with NW direction exists actually. Taking 39°N as a boundary, seismicity in the south is different from that in north of Bohai Sea. Almost all strong earthquakes and seismic dense zones are concentrated in the southern part. Based on archives and seismic dense characteristics, we amended the epicenter of strong earthquakes in 1548 and discussed about magnitude of the earthquake in 1888. Possibility of the event in 173 as a tsunami was discussed. The event in 1597 was doubted as a strong earthquake in Bohai Sea.

  9. Characteristics of seismic activity before several large Sumatra, Indonesia, earthquakes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XUE Yan; SONG Zh-ping; MEI Shi-rong; MA Hong-sheng

    2008-01-01

    @@ Two great earthquakes of MS8.5 and MS8.3 determined by the China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)occurred successively on September 12 and 13,2007 in the sea area to the South of Sumatra,Which is another group of large earthquakes after MS8.7 event on December 26,2004 and MS8.5 event on March 29,2005.The magnitudes of these earthquakes determined by the National Earthquake Information Center of USA(NEIC)are MW9.0(26 December 2004),MW8.7(29 March 2005),MW8.4(12 September 2007)and MW8.1(13 September 2007),respectively.

  10. Challenges to communicate risks of human-caused earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, C. D.

    2014-12-01

    The awareness of natural hazards has been up-trending in recent years. In particular, this is true for earthquakes, which increase in frequency and magnitude in regions that normally do not experience seismic activity. In fact, one of the major concerns for many communities and businesses is that humans today seem to cause earthquakes due to large-scale shale gas production, dewatering and flooding of mines and deep geothermal power production. Accordingly, without opposing any of these technologies it should be a priority of earth scientists who are researching natural hazards to communicate earthquake risks. This presentation discusses the challenges that earth scientists are facing to properly communicate earthquake risks, in light of the fact that human-caused earthquakes are an environmental change affecting only some communities and businesses. Communication channels may range from research papers, books and class room lectures to outreach events and programs, popular media events or even social media networks.

  11. Earthquake Science: a New Start

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Yun-tai

    2009-01-01

    @@ Understanding the mechanisms which cause earthquakes and thus earthquake prediction, is inher-ently difficult in comparison to other physical phenom-ena. This is due to the inaccessibility of the Earth's inte-rior, the infrequency of large earthquakes, and the com-plexities of the physical processes involved. Conse-quently, in its broadest sense, earthquake science--the science of studying earthquake phenomena, is a com-prehensive and inter-disciplinary field. The disciplines involved in earthquake science include: traditional seismology, earthquake geodesy, earthquake geology, rock mechanics, complex system theory, and informa-tion and communication technologies related to earth-quake studies.

  12. Investigating the mechanics of earthquakes using macroscopic seismic parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkataraman, Anupama

    2002-09-01

    To understand the physics of earthquake rupture mechanics, we have to relate seismologically observable parameters to the dynamics of faulting. One of the key seismological parameters that will help us achieve this objective is the energy radiated by seismic waves. In this work, we develop a new method of estimating radiated energy from regional data using an empirical Green's function method; we also modify existing methods of estimating radiated energy from teleseismic data by improving the corrections applied to the observed seismic data for attenuation and directivity effects. We compute teleseismic estimates of radiated energy for 23 large subduction zone earthquakes recorded between 1992 and 2001; most of these earthquakes have a magnitude Mw > 7.5, but we also include some smaller (Mw ˜ 6.7) well-studied subduction zone earthquakes and 6 crustal earthquakes. We compile the static stress drop estimates for these 29 earthquakes from published literature. We then determine radiation efficiency of these earthquakes using a stress relaxation model that relates measurable and macroscopic seismological parameters to the physical processes on the fault zone via fracture energy. We also determine the rupture velocity of these earthquakes from published literature. A comparison of radiation efficiencies and rupture velocities of these earthquakes with the expected theoretical values for different modes crack propagation validates the use of the stress relaxation model to understand earthquake rupture mechanics. From our calculations, we observe that most earthquakes have radiation efficiencies between 0.25 and 1 and are hence efficient in generating seismic waves, but tsunami earthquakes and two deep earthquakes, the 1994 deep earthquake that occurred in Bolivia and the 1999 Russia-China border earthquake, have very small radiation efficiencies (<0.25) and hence dissipate a large amount of energy on the fault plane. We suggest that the difference in the radiation

  13. Marcellus Shale fracking waste caused earthquakes in Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Colin

    2013-08-01

    Before January 2011, Youngstown, Ohio, had never had an earthquake since observations began in 1776. In December 2010 the Northstar 1 injection well came online; this well was built to pump wastewater produced by hydraulic fracturing projects in Pennsylvania into storage deep underground. In the year that followed, seismometers in and around Youngstown recorded 109 earthquakes—the strongest of the set being a magnitude 3.9 earthquake on 31 December 2011.

  14. Dynamic strains for earthquake source characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbour, Andrew J.; Crowell, Brendan W

    2017-01-01

    Strainmeters measure elastodynamic deformation associated with earthquakes over a broad frequency band, with detection characteristics that complement traditional instrumentation, but they are commonly used to study slow transient deformation along active faults and at subduction zones, for example. Here, we analyze dynamic strains at Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) borehole strainmeters (BSM) associated with 146 local and regional earthquakes from 2004–2014, with magnitudes from M 4.5 to 7.2. We find that peak values in seismic strain can be predicted from a general regression against distance and magnitude, with improvements in accuracy gained by accounting for biases associated with site–station effects and source–path effects, the latter exhibiting the strongest influence on the regression coefficients. To account for the influence of these biases in a general way, we include crustal‐type classifications from the CRUST1.0 global velocity model, which demonstrates that high‐frequency strain data from the PBO BSM network carry information on crustal structure and fault mechanics: earthquakes nucleating offshore on the Blanco fracture zone, for example, generate consistently lower dynamic strains than earthquakes around the Sierra Nevada microplate and in the Salton trough. Finally, we test our dynamic strain prediction equations on the 2011 M 9 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake, specifically continuous strain records derived from triangulation of 137 high‐rate Global Navigation Satellite System Earth Observation Network stations in Japan. Moment magnitudes inferred from these data and the strain model are in agreement when Global Positioning System subnetworks are unaffected by spatial aliasing.

  15. Strike-slip earthquakes can also be detected in the ionosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astafyeva, Elvira; Rolland, Lucie M.; Sladen, Anthony

    2014-11-01

    It is generally assumed that co-seismic ionospheric disturbances are generated by large vertical static displacements of the ground during an earthquake. Consequently, it is expected that co-seismic ionospheric disturbances are only observable after earthquakes with a significant dip-slip component. Therefore, earthquakes dominated by strike-slip motion, i.e. with very little vertical co-seismic component, are not expected to generate ionospheric perturbations. In this work, we use total electron content (TEC) measurements from ground-based GNSS-receivers to study ionospheric response to six recent largest strike-slip earthquakes: the Mw7.8 Kunlun earthquake of 14 November 2001, the Mw8.1 Macquarie earthquake of 23 December 2004, the Sumatra earthquake doublet, Mw8.6 and Mw8.2, of 11 April 2012, the Mw7.7 Balochistan earthquake of 24 September 2013 and the Mw 7.7 Scotia Sea earthquake of 17 November 2013. We show that large strike-slip earthquakes generate large ionospheric perturbations of amplitude comparable with those induced by dip-slip earthquakes of equivalent magnitude. We consider that in the absence of significant vertical static co-seismic displacements of the ground, other seismological parameters (primarily the magnitude of co-seismic horizontal displacements, seismic fault dimensions, seismic slip) may contribute in generation of large-amplitude ionospheric perturbations.

  16. Source area of the 1858 earthquake swarm in the central Ryukyu Islands revealed by the observations of Father Louis Furet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oda, Takuma; Nakamura, Mamoru

    2017-09-01

    We estimated the location and magnitude of earthquakes constituting the 1858 earthquake swarm in the central Ryukyu Islands using the felt earthquakes recorded by Father Louis Furet who lived in Naha, Okinawa Island, in the middle of the nineteenth century. First, we estimated the JMA seismic intensity of the earthquakes by interpreting the words used to describe the shaking. Next, using the seismic intensity and shaking duration of the felt earthquakes, we estimated the epicentral distance and magnitude range of three earthquakes in the swarm. The results showed that the epicentral distances of the earthquakes were 20-250 km and that magnitudes ranged between 4.5 and 6.5, with a strong correlation between epicentral distance and magnitude. Since the rumblings accompanying some earthquakes in the swarm were heard from a northward direction, the swarm probably occurred to the north of Naha. The most likely source area for the 1858 swarm is the central Okinawa Trough, where a similar swarm event occurred in 1980. If the 1858 swarm occurred in the central Okinawa Trough, the estimated maximum magnitude would have reached 6-7. In contrast, if the 1858 swarm occurred in the vicinity of Amami Island, which is the second most likely candidate area, it would have produced a cluster of magnitude 7-8 earthquakes.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  17. Applicability of P/S amplitude ratios for the discrimination of low magnitude seismic events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PAN Chang-zhou; JIN Ping; WANG Hong-chun

    2007-01-01

    Applicability of regional P/S amplitude ratios for the discrimination of low-magnitude seismic events was tested and proved using earthquakes and explosions in Central Asia. Results obtained show that regional P/S amplitude ratios which may discriminate medium or large magnitude events well, are also applicable to low magnitude events. Their performances for low magnitude events are almost as good as that for medium or large events. Statistical comparisons based on 25 P/S discriminate from the four seismic stations WMQ, BLK, MUL and MAK showed that the average misclassification rate for low-magnitude seismic events averagely was only 2 percent higher than that for medium and large magnitude seismic events.

  18. Earthquakes and faults in southern California (1970-2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Calzia, James P.; Walter, Stephen R.

    2012-01-01

    The map depicts both active and inactive faults and earthquakes magnitude 1.5 to 7.3 in southern California (1970–2010). The bathymetry was generated from digital files from the California Department of Fish And Game, Marine Region, Coastal Bathymetry Project. Elevation data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Database. Landsat satellite image is from fourteen Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper scenes collected between 2009 and 2010. Fault data are reproduced with permission from 2006 California Geological Survey and U.S. Geological Survey data. The earthquake data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center.

  19. Experimental evidence that thrust earthquake ruptures might open faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabuchian, Vahe; Rosakis, Ares J; Bhat, Harsha S; Madariaga, Raúl; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2017-05-18

    Many of Earth's great earthquakes occur on thrust faults. These earthquakes predominantly occur within subduction zones, such as the 2011 moment magnitude 9.0 eathquake in Tohoku-Oki, Japan, or along large collision zones, such as the 1999 moment magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Chi-Chi, Taiwan. Notably, these two earthquakes had a maximum slip that was very close to the surface. This contributed to the destructive tsunami that occurred during the Tohoku-Oki event and to the large amount of structural damage caused by the Chi-Chi event. The mechanism that results in such large slip near the surface is poorly understood as shallow parts of thrust faults are considered to be frictionally stable. Here we use earthquake rupture experiments to reveal the existence of a torquing mechanism of thrust fault ruptures near the free surface that causes them to unclamp and slip large distances. Complementary numerical modelling of the experiments confirms that the hanging-wall wedge undergoes pronounced rotation in one direction as the earthquake rupture approaches the free surface, and this torque is released as soon as the rupture breaks the free surface, resulting in the unclamping and violent 'flapping' of the hanging-wall wedge. Our results imply that the shallow extent of the seismogenic zone of a subducting interface is not fixed and can extend up to the trench during great earthquakes through a torquing mechanism.

  20. Experimental evidence that thrust earthquake ruptures might open faults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabuchian, Vahe; Rosakis, Ares J.; Bhat, Harsha S.; Madariaga, Raúl; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2017-05-01

    Many of Earth’s great earthquakes occur on thrust faults. These earthquakes predominantly occur within subduction zones, such as the 2011 moment magnitude 9.0 eathquake in Tohoku-Oki, Japan, or along large collision zones, such as the 1999 moment magnitude 7.7 earthquake in Chi-Chi, Taiwan. Notably, these two earthquakes had a maximum slip that was very close to the surface. This contributed to the destructive tsunami that occurred during the Tohoku-Oki event and to the large amount of structural damage caused by the Chi-Chi event. The mechanism that results in such large slip near the surface is poorly understood as shallow parts of thrust faults are considered to be frictionally stable. Here we use earthquake rupture experiments to reveal the existence of a torquing mechanism of thrust fault ruptures near the free surface that causes them to unclamp and slip large distances. Complementary numerical modelling of the experiments confirms that the hanging-wall wedge undergoes pronounced rotation in one direction as the earthquake rupture approaches the free surface, and this torque is released as soon as the rupture breaks the free surface, resulting in the unclamping and violent ‘flapping’ of the hanging-wall wedge. Our results imply that the shallow extent of the seismogenic zone of a subducting interface is not fixed and can extend up to the trench during great earthquakes through a torquing mechanism.

  1. Impending HRT wave precursors to the Wenchuan M_s8.0 earthquake and methods of earthquake impending prediction by using HRT wave

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    We deployed four geo-electric monitoring stations in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 2004, using the new generation of equipment (PS-100) and technologies to capture the HRT wave earthquake precursor. Before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, we recorded the HRT wave precursor at the only operating station in Hongge (HG, Δ=465 km) and found that significant impending signal had been recorded at the station in the early morning ( 0―5 am) of 12th of May, 2008. The precursor for this earthquake is consistent with precursors recorded for other strong earthquakes. The measured physical properties (geo-resistivity and telluric-current) show tidal wave period oscillations from several days to several months before the earthquakes and the amplitude of such HT oscillation increases significantly towards the occurrence of an earthquake. These HT and RT waves from the epicenter have a causal relationship with the earthquakes that happened several days later. The arrival time of two RT waves is proportional to the distance from the station to the epicenter. The estimated natural decay of the amplitude is correlated with the natural period (T0) of the earthquake fault, which is proportional to the fault length. From this relationship, we can predict the earthquake magnitude. For magnitude 6―9 earthquakes, the natural period is about 1―6 hours. Such oscillation comes from the epicenter area and they can propagate several thousand kilometers in the Earth’s crust. Before a strong earthquake in the shallow crust, the conductive pore fluid will experience major changes before the fault rapture. Such fluid change will emit an oscillation in the pore fluid pressure. This is the mechanism for the HRT wave generation. Since the China Earthquake Administration funded the HRT wave short-term earth-quake prediction project in 2003, the first record of HRT precursor wave has been recorded from the 2004-12-26 Sumatra Mw9.0 earthquake with the largest epicentre distance Δ=2900 km

  2. Solar Variability Magnitudes and Timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Greg

    2015-08-01

    The Sun’s net radiative output varies on timescales of minutes to many millennia. The former are directly observed as part of the on-going 37-year long total solar irradiance climate data record, while the latter are inferred from solar proxy and stellar evolution models. Since the Sun provides nearly all the energy driving the Earth’s climate system, changes in the sunlight reaching our planet can have - and have had - significant impacts on life and civilizations.Total solar irradiance has been measured from space since 1978 by a series of overlapping instruments. These have shown changes in the spatially- and spectrally-integrated radiant energy at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere from timescales as short as minutes to as long as a solar cycle. The Sun’s ~0.01% variations over a few minutes are caused by the superposition of convection and oscillations, and even occasionally by a large flare. Over days to weeks, changing surface activity affects solar brightness at the ~0.1% level. The 11-year solar cycle has comparable irradiance variations with peaks near solar maxima.Secular variations are harder to discern, being limited by instrument stability and the relatively short duration of the space-borne record. Proxy models of the Sun based on cosmogenic isotope records and inferred from Earth climate signatures indicate solar brightness changes over decades to millennia, although the magnitude of these variations depends on many assumptions. Stellar evolution affects yet longer timescales and is responsible for the greatest solar variabilities.In this talk I will summarize the Sun’s variability magnitudes over different temporal ranges, showing examples relevant for climate studies as well as detections of exo-solar planets transiting Sun-like stars.

  3. Fractals and Forecasting in Earthquakes and Finance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2011-12-01

    It is now recognized that Benoit Mandelbrot's fractals play a critical role in describing a vast range of physical and social phenomena. Here we focus on two systems, earthquakes and finance. Since 1942, earthquakes have been characterized by the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relation, which in more recent times is often written as a moment-frequency power law. A similar relation can be shown to hold for financial markets. Moreover, a recent New York Times article, titled "A Richter Scale for the Markets" [1] summarized the emerging viewpoint that stock market crashes can be described with similar ideas as large and great earthquakes. The idea that stock market crashes can be related in any way to earthquake phenomena has its roots in Mandelbrot's 1963 work on speculative prices in commodities markets such as cotton [2]. He pointed out that Gaussian statistics did not account for the excessive number of booms and busts that characterize such markets. Here we show that both earthquakes and financial crashes can both be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model, involving the presence of a classical limit of stability, or spinodal. These metastable systems are characterized by fractal statistics near the spinodal. For earthquakes, the independent ("order") parameter is the slip deficit along a fault, whereas for the financial markets, it is financial leverage in place. For financial markets, asset values play the role of a free energy. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In the case of financial models, the probabilities are closely related to implied volatility, an important component of Black-Scholes models for stock valuations. [2] B. Mandelbrot, The variation of certain speculative prices, J. Business, 36, 294 (1963)

  4. On near-source earthquake triggering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, T.; Velasco, A.A.

    2009-01-01

    When one earthquake triggers others nearby, what connects them? Two processes are observed: static stress change from fault offset and dynamic stress changes from passing seismic waves. In the near-source region (r ??? 50 km for M ??? 5 sources) both processes may be operating, and since both mechanisms are expected to raise earthquake rates, it is difficult to isolate them. We thus compare explosions with earthquakes because only earthquakes cause significant static stress changes. We find that large explosions at the Nevada Test Site do not trigger earthquakes at rates comparable to similar magnitude earthquakes. Surface waves are associated with regional and long-range dynamic triggering, but we note that surface waves with low enough frequency to penetrate to depths where most aftershocks of the 1992 M = 5.7 Little Skull Mountain main shock occurred (???12 km) would not have developed significant amplitude within a 50-km radius. We therefore focus on the best candidate phases to cause local dynamic triggering, direct waves that pass through observed near-source aftershock clusters. We examine these phases, which arrived at the nearest (200-270 km) broadband station before the surface wave train and could thus be isolated for study. Direct comparison of spectral amplitudes of presurface wave arrivals shows that M ??? 5 explosions and earthquakes deliver the same peak dynamic stresses into the near-source crust. We conclude that a static stress change model can readily explain observed aftershock patterns, whereas it is difficult to attribute near-source triggering to a dynamic process because of the dearth of aftershocks near large explosions.

  5. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  6. Roaming earthquakes in China highlight midcontinental hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Mian; Wang, Hui

    2012-11-01

    Before dawn on 28 July 1976, a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake struck Tangshan, a Chinese industrial city only 150 kilometers from Beijing (Figure 1a). In a brief moment, the earthquake destroyed the entire city and killed more than 242,000 people [Chen et al., 1988]. More than 30 years have passed, and upon the ruins a new Tangshan city has been built. However, the memory of devastation remains fresh. For this reason, a sequence of recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region, including an M 4.8 event on 28 May and an M 4.0 event on 18 June 2012, has caused widespread concerns and heated debate in China. In the science community, the debate is whether the recent Tangshan earthquakes are the aftershocks of the 1976 earthquake despite the long gap in time since the main shock or harbingers of a new period of active seismicity in Tangshan and the rest of North China, where seismic activity seems to fluctuate between highs and lows over periods of a few decades [Ma, 1989].

  7. Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holliday, James R.; Graves, William R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2016-03-01

    Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating. Events in many of these systems display frequency-size statistics that are power laws. Previously, we presented a new method for calculating probabilities for large events in systems such as these. This method counts the number of small events since the last large event and then converts this count into a probability by using a Weibull probability law. We applied this method to the calculation of large earthquake probabilities in California-Nevada, USA. In that study, we considered a fixed geographic region and assumed that all earthquakes within that region, large magnitudes as well as small, were perfectly correlated. In the present article, we extend this model to systems in which the events have a finite correlation length. We modify our previous results by employing the correlation function for near mean field systems having long-range interactions, an example of which is earthquakes and elastic interactions. We then construct an application of the method and show examples of computed earthquake probabilities.

  8. Long aseismic slip duration of the 2006 Java tsunami earthquake based on GPS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raharja, Rio; Gunawan, Endra; Meilano, Irwan; Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.; Efendi, Joni

    2016-10-01

    The Java earthquake occurred on July 17, 2006 with magnitude 7.8 associated to the subduction process of Indo-Australian plate and Sundaland block off southwestern coast of Java. We present postseismic deformation parameters of the 2006 Java earthquake analyzed using campaign GPS observation from 2006 to 2008 and continuous observation from 2007 to 2014. We use an analytical approach of logarithmic and exponential functions to model these GPS data. We find that the decay time in the order of hundreds of days after the mainshock as observed by 8 years' data after the mainshock for magnitude 7 earthquake is longer than a general megathrust earthquake event. Our findings suggest that the 2006 Java earthquake which is considered as "tsunami earthquake" most probably occurred in the region that has low rigidity and tends to continuously slip for long time periods.

  9. Potential for a large earthquake near Los Angeles inferred from the 2014 La Habra earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant Ludwig, Lisa; Parker, Jay W.; Rundle, John B.; Wang, Jun; Pierce, Marlon; Blewitt, Geoffrey; Hensley, Scott

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Tectonic motion across the Los Angeles region is distributed across an intricate network of strike‐slip and thrust faults that will be released in destructive earthquakes similar to or larger than the 1933 M6.4 Long Beach and 1994 M6.7 Northridge events. Here we show that Los Angeles regional thrust, strike‐slip, and oblique faults are connected and move concurrently with measurable surface deformation, even in moderate magnitude earthquakes, as part of a fault system that accommodates north‐south shortening and westerly tectonic escape of northern Los Angeles. The 28 March 2014 M5.1 La Habra earthquake occurred on a northeast striking, northwest dipping left‐lateral oblique thrust fault northeast of Los Angeles. We present crustal deformation observation spanning the earthquake showing that concurrent deformation occurred on several structures in the shallow crust. The seismic moment of the earthquake is 82% of the total geodetic moment released. Slip within the unconsolidated upper sedimentary layer may reflect shallow release of accumulated strain on still‐locked deeper structures. A future M6.1–6.3 earthquake would account for the accumulated strain. Such an event could occur on any one or several of these faults, which may not have been identified by geologic surface mapping. PMID:27981074

  10. Reported geomagnetic and ionospheric precursors to earthquakes: Summary, reanalysis, and implications for short-term prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, J. N.; Masci, F.; Love, J. J.; Johnston, M. J.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural phenomena on earth, causing high deaths tolls and large financial losses each year. If precursory signals could be regularly and reliably identified, then the hazardous effects of earthquakes might be mitigated. Unfortunately, it is not at all clear that short-term earthquake prediction is either possible or practical, and the entire subject remains controversial. Still, many claims of successful earthquake precursor observations have been published, and among these are reports of geomagnetic and ionospheric anomalies prior to earthquake occurrence. Given the importance of earthquake prediction, reports of earthquake precursors need to be analyzed and checked for reliability and reproducibility. We have done this for numerous such reports, including the Loma Prieta, Guam, Hector Mine, Tohoku, and L'Aquila earthquakes. We have found that these reported earthquake precursors: 1) often lack time series observations from long before and long after the earthquakes and near and far from the earthquakes, 2) are not statistically correlated with the earthquakes and do not relate to the earthquake source mechanisms, 3) are not followed by similar, but much larger, signals during the subsequent earthquake when the primary energy release occurs, 4) are nonuniform in that they occur at different spatial and temporal regimes relative to the earthquakes and with different magnitudes and frequencies, and 5) can often be explained by other non-earthquake related mechanisms or normal geomagnetic activity. Thus we conclude that these reported precursors could not be used to predict the time or location of the earthquakes. Based on our findings, we suggest a protocol for examining precursory reports, something that will help guide future research in this area.

  11. Magnitude and distance distribution of strong aftershocks in Sichuan-Yunnan region

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lü Xiao-jian; GAO Meng-tan; GAO Zhan-wu; MI Su-ting

    2008-01-01

    Using the earthquake sequences data with Ms≥6.5 since 1966 in Sichuan-Yunnan region, we research the charac- teristic of the magnitude difference distribution between main shocks and their strong aftershocks; and then study the spatial distribution characteristic of the strong aftershocks away from their main shocks. The result shows that the magnitude difference distribution obeys intercepted exponential distribution, while the spatial distribution of strong aftershocks obeys normal distribution and the dominated distribution area of strong shocks is 10~39 krn away from main shock. Finally the probability density function of the magnitude difference distribution and the spatial distribution of strong aftershocks is deduced.

  12. Encyclopedia of earthquake engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Kougioumtzoglou, Ioannis; Patelli, Edoardo; Au, Siu-Kui

    2015-01-01

    The Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering is designed to be the authoritative and comprehensive reference covering all major aspects of the science of earthquake engineering, specifically focusing on the interaction between earthquakes and infrastructure. The encyclopedia comprises approximately 265 contributions. Since earthquake engineering deals with the interaction between earthquake disturbances and the built infrastructure, the emphasis is on basic design processes important to both non-specialists and engineers so that readers become suitably well-informed without needing to deal with the details of specialist understanding. The content of this encyclopedia provides technically inclined and informed readers about the ways in which earthquakes can affect our infrastructure and how engineers would go about designing against, mitigating and remediating these effects. The coverage ranges from buildings, foundations, underground construction, lifelines and bridges, roads, embankments and slopes. The encycl...

  13. Assessment of precast beam-column using capacity demand response spectrum subject to design basis earthquake and maximum considered earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghani, Kay Dora Abd.; Tukiar, Mohd Azuan; Hamid, Nor Hayati Abdul

    2017-08-01

    Malaysia is surrounded by the tectonic feature of the Sumatera area which consists of two seismically active inter-plate boundaries, namely the Indo-Australian and the Eurasian Plates on the west and the Philippine Plates on the east. Hence, Malaysia experiences tremors from far distant earthquake occurring in Banda Aceh, Nias Island, Padang and other parts of Sumatera Indonesia. In order to predict the safety of precast buildings in Malaysia under near field ground motion the response spectrum analysis could be used for dealing with future earthquake whose specific nature is unknown. This paper aimed to develop of capacity demand response spectrum subject to Design Basis Earthquake (DBE) and Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) in order to assess the performance of precast beam column joint. From the capacity-demand response spectrum analysis, it can be concluded that the precast beam-column joints would not survive when subjected to earthquake excitation with surface-wave magnitude, Mw, of more than 5.5 Scale Richter (Type 1 spectra). This means that the beam-column joint which was designed using the current code of practice (BS8110) would be severely damaged when subjected to high earthquake excitation. The capacity-demand response spectrum analysis also shows that the precast beam-column joints in the prototype studied would be severely damaged when subjected to Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) with PGA=0.22g having a surface-wave magnitude of more than 5.5 Scale Richter, or Type 1 spectra.

  14. Rapid earthquake characterization using MEMS accelerometers and volunteer hosts following the M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, J. F.; Cochran, E.S.; Chung, A.; Kaiser, A.; Christensen, C. M.; Allen, R.; Baker, J.W.; Fry, B.; Heaton, T.; Kilb, Debi; Kohler, M.D.; Taufer, M.

    2014-01-01

    We test the feasibility of rapidly detecting and characterizing earthquakes with the Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) that connects low‐cost microelectromechanical systems accelerometers to a network of volunteer‐owned, Internet‐connected computers. Following the 3 September 2010 M 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake we installed over 180 QCN sensors in the Christchurch region to record the aftershock sequence. The sensors are monitored continuously by the host computer and send trigger reports to the central server. The central server correlates incoming triggers to detect when an earthquake has occurred. The location and magnitude are then rapidly estimated from a minimal set of received ground‐motion parameters. Full seismic time series are typically not retrieved for tens of minutes or even hours after an event. We benchmark the QCN real‐time detection performance against the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog. Under normal network operations, QCN detects and characterizes earthquakes within 9.1 s of the earthquake rupture and determines the magnitude within 1 magnitude unit of that reported in the GNS catalog for 90% of the detections.

  15. Earthquake and bay: Response of Monterey Bay to the Loma Prieta Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwing, Franklin B.; Norton, Jerrold G.; Pilskaln, Cynthia H.

    The magnitude-7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake, which ruptured a segment of the San Andreas fault on October 17, 1989, and caused extensive damage over a large area of central California, also produced substantial motions in nearby Monterey Bay (Figure 1). Earthquake effects included a tsunami, or seismic sea wave, and subsequent surface water oscillations that were detected for about 24 hours following the main shock and widespread, substantial slumping of sediments on the Monterey Bay continental shelf and along the walls of Monterey Submarine Canyon.

  16. Reduction of earthquake disasters

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈顒; 陈祺福; 黄静; 徐文立

    2003-01-01

    The article summarizes the researches on mitigating earthquake disasters of the past four years in China. The studyof earthquake disasters′ quantification shows that the losses increase remarkably when population concentrates inurban area and social wealth increase. The article also summarizes some new trends of studying earthquake disas-ters′ mitigation, which are from seismic hazard to seismic risk, from engineering disaster to social disaster andintroduces the community-centered approach.

  17. THE TROBRIAND ISLANDS EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI, 6 MARCH 1895

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horst Letz

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available An earthquake and tsunami struck the Trobriand Islands in March 1895 causing at least 30 deaths but until now the location and magnitude of the earthquake were quite uncertain. We have searched British and German colonial literature of the time to refine both parameters of Everingham’s original estimates. Our magnitude of 7.3±0.3 and location at (8.4°S, 150.1°E compare well with Everingham’s magnitude 7-8 and (9°S, 151°E. Whilst the earthquake seems to be associated with the Trobriand Trench, very few others have occurred there since modern seismographs were deployed in the mid-1960s, certainly none of magnitude 7 or more, none with a thrust mechanism and none that have generated a destructive tsunami. We compare this earthquake and tsunami with the 1998 Sissano Lagoon earthquake, for which we have drawn an isoseismal map, and briefly discuss the implications for tectonic interpretation and hazard assessment.

  18. The autumn 1919 Torremendo (Jacarilla earthquake series (SE Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josep Batlló

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available On 10th September 1919 several slightly damaging earthquakes struck the towns of Torremendo, Jacarilla (near Alicante, SE-Spain and others nearby. Available magnitude estimations for the largest two events of the series are M = 5 approx. They were earthquakes of moderate size and they occurred in a region where similar magnitude earthquakes, thoroughly studied, occurred recently (1999 Mula; 2002 Bullas; 2005 La Paca; 2011 Lorca. This makes these events of interest for a better definition of the regional seismicity. We study their sources from the analysis of the available contemporary seismograms and related documents. A total of 23 seismograms from 9 seismic stations have been collected and digitized. These seismograms contain records for the two main events and several aftershocks of the earthquake series. Finally 44 files, corresponding to 44 recorded single component records from the different events have been processed. The events have been relocated and their magnitudes recalculated. Also, original macroseismic information for these events was recovered. A macroseismic evaluation of the series has been performed. Intensity data points have been recalculated and macroseismic location and magnitude obtained. We conclude that these are the largest earthquakes occurred in the region since the beginning of instrumental recording, with Mw = 5.5 for the largest shock, and that the available data could be compatible with a thrust mechanism related to blind faults in the Bajo Segura region.

  19. Short-term earthquake probabilities during the L'Aquila earthquake sequence in central Italy, 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, G.; Murru, M.; Zhuang, J.; Console, R.

    2014-12-01

    We compare the forecasting performance of several statistical models, which are used to describe the occurrence process of earthquakes, in forecasting the short-term earthquake probabilities during the occurrence of the L'Aquila earthquake sequence in central Italy, 2009. These models include the Proximity to Past Earthquakes (PPE) model and different versions of the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. We used the information gains corresponding to the Poisson and binomial scores to evaluate the performance of these models. It is shown that all ETAS models work better than the PPE model. However, when comparing the different types of the ETAS models, the one with the same fixed exponent coefficient α = 2.3 for both the productivity function and the scaling factor in the spatial response function, performs better in forecasting the active aftershock sequence than the other models with different exponent coefficients when the Poisson score is adopted. These latter models perform only better when a lower magnitude threshold of 2.0 and the binomial score are used. The reason is likely due to the fact that the catalog does not contain an event of magnitude similar to the L'Aquila main shock (Mw 6.3) in the training period (April 16, 2005 to March 15, 2009). In this case the a-value is under-estimated and thus also the forecasted seismicity is underestimated when the productivity function is extrapolated to high magnitudes. These results suggest that the training catalog used for estimating the model parameters should include earthquakes of similar magnitudes as the main shock when forecasting seismicity is during an aftershock sequences.

  20. Earthquake scenarios based on lessons from the past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stella; Aleksandrova, Irena; Popova, Iliana

    2010-05-01

    Earthquakes are the most deadly of the natural disasters affecting the human environment; indeed catastrophic earthquakes have marked the whole human history. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The implementation of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on intervention following the disasters. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. At the beginning of the 20-the century (from 1901 to 1928) five earthquakes with magnitude larger than or equal to MS=7.0 occurred in Bulgaria. However, no such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928, which may induce non-professionals to underestimate the earthquake risk. The 1986 earthquake of magnitude MS=5.7 occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitsa) is the strongest quake after 1928. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study deterministic scenarios (expressed in seismic intensity) for two Bulgarian cities (Rouse and Plovdiv) are presented. The work on

  1. Harnessing the Collective Power of Eyewitnesses for Improved Earthquake Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Lefebvre, S.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.

    2013-12-01

    earthquakes within, as an average 90s of their occurrence, and can map, in certain cases, the damaged areas. Thanks to the flashsourced and crowdsourced information, we developed an innovative Twitter earthquake information service (currently under test and to be open by November) which intends to offer notifications for earthquakes that matter for the public only. It provides timely information for felt and damaging earthquakes regardless their magnitude and heads-up for seismologists. In conclusion, the experience developed at the EMSC demonstrates the benefit of involving eyewitnesses in earthquake surveillance. The data collected directly and indirectly from eyewitnesses complement information derived from monitoring networks and contribute to improved services. By increasing interaction between science and society, it opens new opportunities for raising awareness on seismic hazard.

  2. Catalog of earthquake hypocenters at Alaskan volcanoes: January 1 through December 31, 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, James P.; Stihler, Scott D.; Power, John A.; Searcy, Cheryl K.

    2012-01-01

    Between January 1 and December 31, 2011, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) located 4,364 earthquakes, of which 3,651 occurred within 20 kilometers of the 33 volcanoes with seismograph subnetworks. There was no significant seismic activity above background levels in 2011 at these instrumented volcanic centers. This catalog includes locations, magnitudes, and statistics of the earthquakes located in 2011 with the station parameters, velocity models, and other files used to locate these earthquakes.

  3. The Elmore Ranch and Superstition Hills earthquakes of 24 November 1987: Introduction to the special issue

    OpenAIRE

    Hanks, Thomas C.; Allen, Clarence R.

    1989-01-01

    On 24 November 1987, two significant earthquakes occurred along the southern San Jacinto fault zone and related structural elements in southern California, not far from the International Border. These two events, the Elmore Ranch earthquake (M = 6.2 at 0154 GMT) and the Superstition Hills earthquake (M = 6.6 at 1315 GMT, both moment magnitudes from Sipkin, 1989), and their aftershocks have yielded a rich harvest of geological, seismological, and engineering data pertinent to the cause and ...

  4. Seismicity and earthquake risk in western Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. COSENTINO

    1978-06-01

    Full Text Available The seismicity and the earthquake risk in Western Sicily are here
    evaluated on the basis of the experimental data referring to the historical
    and instrumentally recorded earthquakes in this area (from 1248
    up to 1968, which have been thoroughly collected, analyzed, tested and
    normalized in order to assure the quasi-stationarity of the series of
    events.
    The approximated magnitude values — obtained by means of a compared
    analysis of the magnitude and epicentral intensity values of the
    latest events — have allowed to study the parameters of the frequency-
    magnitude relation with both the classical exponential model and
    the truncated exponential one previously proposed by the author.
    So, the basic parameters, including the maximum possible regional
    magnitude, have been estimated by means of different procedures, and
    their behaviours have been studied as functions of the threshold magnitude.

  5. Application of optical remote sensing in the Wenchuan earthquake assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bing; Lei, Liping; Zhang, Li; Liu, Liangyun; Zhu, Boqin; Zuo, Zhengli

    2009-06-01

    A mega-earthquake of magnitude 8 of Richter scale occurred in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, China on May 12, 2008. The earthquake inflicted heavy loss of human lives and properties. The Wenchuan earthquake induced geological disasters, house collapse, and road blockage. In this paper, we demonstrate an application of optical remote sensing images acquired from airborne and satellite platforms in assessing the earthquake damages. The high-resolution airborne images were acquired by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). The pre- and post-earthquake satellite images of QuickBird, IKONOS, Landsat TM, ALOS, and SPOT were collected by the Center for Earth Observation & Digital Earth (CEODE), CAS, and some of the satellite data were provided by the United States, Japan, and the European Space Agency. The pre- and post-earthquake remote sensing images integrated with DEM and GIS data were adopted to monitor and analyze various earthquake disasters, such as road blockage, house collapse, landslides, avalanches, rock debris flows, and barrier lakes. The results showed that airborne optical images provide a convenient tool for quick and timely monitoring and assessing of the distribution and dynamic changes of the disasters over the earthquake-struck regions. In addition, our study showed that the optical remote sensing data integrated with GIS data can be used to assess disaster conditions such as damaged farmlands, soil erosion, etc, which in turn provides useful information for the postdisaster reconstruction.

  6. The 1909 Taipei earthquake: implication for seismic hazard in Taipei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamori, Hiroo; Lee, William H.K.; Ma, Kuo-Fong

    2012-01-01

    The 1909 April 14 Taiwan earthquake caused significant damage in Taipei. Most of the information on this earthquake available until now is from the written reports on its macro-seismic effects and from seismic station bulletins. In view of the importance of this event for assessing the shaking hazard in the present-day Taipei, we collected historical seismograms and station bulletins of this event and investigated them in conjunction with other seismological data. We compared the observed seismograms with those from recent earthquakes in similar tectonic environments to characterize the 1909 earthquake. Despite the inevitably large uncertainties associated with old data, we conclude that the 1909 Taipei earthquake is a relatively deep (50–100 km) intraplate earthquake that occurred within the subducting Philippine Sea Plate beneath Taipei with an estimated M_W of 7 ± 0.3. Some intraplate events elsewhere in the world are enriched in high-frequency energy and the resulting ground motions can be very strong. Thus, despite its relatively large depth and a moderately large magnitude, it would be prudent to review the safety of the existing structures in Taipei against large intraplate earthquakes like the 1909 Taipei earthquake.

  7. Tracking a closing volcanic system using repeating earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buurman, H.; West, M. E.; Grapenthin, R.

    2011-12-01

    Repeating, volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes were recorded at the end of the explosive phase of the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska. The events cluster into several families which exhibit cross-correlation values greater than 0.8 and are distributed between 0-10 km below the edifice. The earthquake magnitudes decline gradually with time, and the events also appear to shallow as the sequence progresses. This activity continued for over 2 months and accompanied steady dome growth, which halted around the same time that the last of the repeating VTs were recorded. The repetitive nature of these earthquakes, their relatively deep locations and their occurrence following 3 weeks of major explosive eruptions suggest that they are related to changes around the conduit system and/or the magma storage area as the last of the magma was removed from the mid-crustal storage area. Geodetic data indicate that the deflation of the edifice, which had been continuous throughout the explosive activity, ceased coincident with the onset of the repeating VT earthquakes. We use evidence from earthquake relocations and earthquake focal mechanisms to investigate the source for the repeating VT earthquakes. We propose a model in which the repeating earthquakes are closely related to the adjustment of the conduit system and mid crustal storage area in response to the last of the ascending magma.

  8. An efficient repeating signal detector to investigate earthquake swarms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skoumal, Robert J.; Brudzinski, Michael R.; Currie, Brian S.

    2016-08-01

    Repetitive earthquake swarms have been recognized as key signatures in fluid injection induced seismicity, precursors to volcanic eruptions, and slow slip events preceding megathrust earthquakes. We investigate earthquake swarms by developing a Repeating Signal Detector (RSD), a computationally efficient algorithm utilizing agglomerative clustering to identify similar waveforms buried in years of seismic recordings using a single seismometer. Instead of relying on existing earthquake catalogs of larger earthquakes, RSD identifies characteristic repetitive waveforms by rapidly identifying signals of interest above a low signal-to-noise ratio and then grouping based on spectral and time domain characteristics, resulting in dramatically shorter processing time than more exhaustive autocorrelation approaches. We investigate seismicity in four regions using RSD: (1) volcanic seismicity at Mammoth Mountain, California, (2) subduction-related seismicity in Oaxaca, Mexico, (3) induced seismicity in Central Alberta, Canada, and (4) induced seismicity in Harrison County, Ohio. In each case, RSD detects a similar or larger number of earthquakes than existing catalogs created using more time intensive methods. In Harrison County, RSD identifies 18 seismic sequences that correlate temporally and spatially to separate hydraulic fracturing operations, 15 of which were previously unreported. RSD utilizes a single seismometer for earthquake detection which enables seismicity to be quickly identified in poorly instrumented regions at the expense of relying on another method to locate the new detections. Due to the smaller computation overhead and success at distances up to ~50 km, RSD is well suited for real-time detection of low-magnitude earthquake swarms with permanent regional networks.

  9. Simulating Earthquakes for Science and Society: New Earthquake Visualizations Ideal for Use in Science Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Groot, R. M.; Benthien, M. L.

    2006-12-01

    The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has been developing groundbreaking computer modeling capabilities for studying earthquakes. These visualizations were initially shared within the scientific community but have recently have gained visibility via television news coverage in Southern California. These types of visualizations are becoming pervasive in the teaching and learning of concepts related to earth science. Computers have opened up a whole new world for scientists working with large data sets, and students can benefit from the same opportunities (Libarkin &Brick, 2002). Earthquakes are ideal candidates for visualization products: they cannot be predicted, are completed in a matter of seconds, occur deep in the earth, and the time between events can be on a geologic time scale. For example, the southern part of the San Andreas fault has not seen a major earthquake since about 1690, setting the stage for an earthquake as large as magnitude 7.7 -- the "big one." Since no one has experienced such an earthquake, visualizations can help people understand the scale of such an event. Accordingly, SCEC has developed a revolutionary simulation of this earthquake, with breathtaking visualizations that are now being distributed. According to Gordin and Pea (1995), theoretically visualization should make science accessible, provide means for authentic inquiry, and lay the groundwork to understand and critique scientific issues. This presentation will discuss how the new SCEC visualizations and other earthquake imagery achieve these results, how they fit within the context of major themes and study areas in science communication, and how the efficacy of these tools can be improved.

  10. An earthquake strength scale for the media and the public

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, A.C.

    1990-01-01

    Let's face it: seismologists do a pretty poor job of communicating the facts about our science to the public. Earthquake magnitude is the classic example. How many of us have struggled to explain the Richter scale? We explain that it is logarithmic, with each unit indicating a factor of 10 increase, but this really represents a factor of 32 increase in intrinsic earthquake size, and in any case we don't use the Richter scale anymore. By then the unfortunate listener is reeling and can be dispatched quietly by mentioning negative magnitudes or saturation. We even wonder why the audience or the reporter has this glazed look when we we finish.

  11. a Collaborative Cyberinfrastructure for Earthquake Seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Roussel, F.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Lefebvre, S.; Steed, R.

    2013-12-01

    One of the challenges in real time seismology is the prediction of earthquake's impact. It is particularly true for moderate earthquake (around magnitude 6) located close to urbanised areas, where the slightest uncertainty in event location, depth, magnitude estimates, and/or misevaluation of propagation characteristics, site effects and buildings vulnerability can dramatically change impact scenario. The Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) has developed a cyberinfrastructure to collect observations from eyewitnesses in order to provide in-situ constraints on actual damages. This cyberinfrastructure takes benefit of the natural convergence of earthquake's eyewitnesses on EMSC website (www.emsc-csem.org), the second global earthquake information website within tens of seconds of the occurrence of a felt event. It includes classical crowdsourcing tools such as online questionnaires available in 39 languages, and tools to collect geolocated pics. It also comprises information derived from the real time analysis of the traffic on EMSC website, a method named flashsourcing; In case of a felt earthquake, eyewitnesses reach EMSC website within tens of seconds to find out the cause of the shaking they have just been through. By analysing their geographical origin through their IP address, we automatically detect felt earthquakes and in some cases map the damaged areas through the loss of Internet visitors. We recently implemented a Quake Catcher Network (QCN) server in collaboration with Stanford University and the USGS, to collect ground motion records performed by volunteers and are also involved in a project to detect earthquakes from ground motions sensors from smartphones. Strategies have been developed for several social media (Facebook, Twitter...) not only to distribute earthquake information, but also to engage with the Citizens and optimise data collection. A smartphone application is currently under development. We will present an overview of this

  12. Earthquake hazards to domestic water distribution systems in Salt Lake County, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Highland, Lynn M.

    1985-01-01

    A magnitude-7. 5 earthquake occurring along the central portion of the Wasatch Fault, Utah, may cause significant damage to Salt Lake County's domestic water system. This system is composed of water treatment plants, aqueducts, distribution mains, and other facilities that are vulnerable to ground shaking, liquefaction, fault movement, and slope failures. Recent investigations into surface faulting, landslide potential, and earthquake intensity provide basic data for evaluating the potential earthquake hazards to water-distribution systems in the event of a large earthquake. Water supply system components may be vulnerable to one or more earthquake-related effects, depending on site geology and topography. Case studies of water-system damage by recent large earthquakes in Utah and in other regions of the United States offer valuable insights in evaluating water system vulnerability to earthquakes.

  13. Anomalies in Water Level Records in Yunnan Caused by the Great Indonesian Earthquakes and Their Significance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fu Hong; Wu Chengdong; Liu Qiang; Wang Shiqin; Chen Yan

    2008-01-01

    Two great earthquakes occurred in the sea northwest of Sumatra,Indonesia,on December 26,2004 and March 29,2005.The observation of water levels in Yunnan yielded abundant information about the two earthquakes.This paper presents the water level response to the two earthquakes in Yunnan and makes a preliminary analysis.It is observed that the large earthquake-induced abnormal water level change could be better recorded by analog recording than by digital recording.The large earthquake-caused water level rise or decline may be attributed to the effect of seismic waves that change the stress in tectonic units,and is correlated with the geological structure where the well is located.The water level response mode in a well is totally the same for earthquakes occurring on the same fault and with the same fracture mode.The only difference is that the response amplitude increases with the growth of the earthquake magnitude.

  14. The magnitude-frequency relationship of Andalusian region; La relacion magnitud-frecuencia para los estudios de riesgo sismico en Andalucia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Justo Alpanes, J. L. de; Carrasco Romero, R.; Martin Martin, A. J.

    1999-08-01

    An usual procedure in seismic hazard studies is to associate the potential sources of earthquakes with relatively broad zones, called seismogenetic zones, with homogeneous seismic and tectonic characteristics. The process of tremors generation is, in each zone, homogeneous in space and time. Seventeen zones are supposed to affect the Andalusian region, associated with the main tectonic structures of the Ibero-Maghrebian region. Both log-linear and log-quadratic magnitude-frequency laws have been considered. This last relationship has usually a better fit with the magnitude data, although in some zones a linear relationship is clearly established. (Author) 9 refs.

  15. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-02-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are much more prevalent than traditional networks and contain accelerometers that can also be used to detect earthquakes. We report on the development of a new type of seismic system, MyShake, that harnesses personal/private smartphone sensors to collect data and analyze earthquakes. We show that smartphones can record magnitude 5 earthquakes at distances of 10 km or less and develop an on-phone detection capability to separate earthquakes from other everyday shakes. Our proof-of-concept system then collects earthquake data at a central site where a network detection algorithm confirms that an earthquake is under way and estimates the location and magnitude in real time. This information can then be used to issue an alert of forthcoming ground shaking. MyShake could be used to enhance EEW in regions with traditional networks and could provide the only EEW capability in regions without. In addition, the seismic waveforms recorded could be used to deliver rapid microseism maps, study impacts on buildings, and possibly image shallow earth structure and earthquake rupture kinematics.

  16. Izmit (Kocaeli) Turkey Earthquake, August 17 1999, Set 2, Structural Damage

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — On August 17, 1999, at 3:01 A.M. local time (00:01:39.8 UTC) a magnitude (Mw) 7.4 earthquake occurred along the westernmost North Anatolian fault. The earthquake...

  17. Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal's 2015 Gorkha earthquake

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kargel, J. S.; Leonard, G. J.; Shugar, D. H.; Haritashya, U. K.; Bevington, A.; Fielding, E. J.; Fujita, K.; Geertsema, M.; Miles, E. S.; Steiner, J.; Anderson, E.; Bajracharya, S.; Bawden, G. W.; Breashears, D. F.; Byers, A.; Collins, B.; Dhital, M. R.; Donnellan, A.; Evans, T. L.; Geai, M. L.; Glasscoe, M. T.; Green, D.; Gurung, D. R.; Heijenk, R.; Hilborn, A.; Hudnut, K.; Huyck, C.; Immerzeel, W. W.; Liming, Jiang; Jibson, R.; Kääb, A.; Khanal, N. R.; Kirschbaum, D.; Kraaijenbrink, P. D A; Lamsal, D.; Shiyin, Liu; Mingyang, Lv; McKinney, D.; Nahirnick, N. K.; Zhuotong, Nan; Ojha, S.; Olsenholler, J.; Painter, T. H.; Pleasants, M.; Pratima, K. C.; Yuan, Q. I.; Raup, B. H.; Regmi, D.; Rounce, D. R.; Sakai, A.; Donghui, Shangguan; Shea, J. M.; Shrestha, A. B.; Shukla, A.; Stumm, D.; van der Kooij, M.; Voss, K.; Xin, Wang; Weihs, B.; Wolfe, D.; Lizong, Wu; Xiaojun, Yao; Yoder, M. R.; Young, N.

    2016-01-01

    The Gorkha earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9000 people and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of

  18. Earthquake modelling at the country level using aggregated spatio-temporal point processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Lieshout, Maria Nicolette Margaretha; Lieshout, M.N.M.; Stein, A.

    2012-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to derive a hazard map for earthquake occurrences in Pakistan from a catalogue that contains spatial coordinates of shallow earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or larger aggregated over calendar years. We test relative temporal stationarity by the KPSS statistic and use the

  19. Earthquake modelling at the country level using aggregated spatio-temporal point processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.N.M. van Lieshout (Marie-Colette); A. Stein (Alfred)

    2012-01-01

    htmlabstractThe goal of this paper is to derive a hazard map for earthquake occurrences in Pakistan from a catalogue that contains spatial coordinates of shallow earthquakes of magnitude $4.5$ or larger aggregated over calendar years. We test relative temporal stationarity by the KPSS statistic

  20. Geomorphic and geologic controls of geohazards induced by Nepal's 2015 Gorkha earthquake

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kargel, J. S.; Leonard, G. J.; Shugar, D. H.; Haritashya, U. K.; Bevington, A.; Fielding, E. J.; Fujita, K.; Geertsema, M.; Miles, E. S.; Steiner, J.; Anderson, E.; Bajracharya, S.; Bawden, G. W.; Breashears, D. F.; Byers, A.; Collins, B.; Dhital, M. R.; Donnellan, A.; Evans, T. L.; Geai, M. L.; Glasscoe, M. T.; Green, D.; Gurung, D. R.; Heijenk, R.; Hilborn, A.; Hudnut, K.; Huyck, C.; Immerzeel, W. W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113; Liming, Jiang; Jibson, R.; Kääb, A.; Khanal, N. R.; Kirschbaum, D.; Kraaijenbrink, P. D A; Lamsal, D.; Shiyin, Liu; Mingyang, Lv; McKinney, D.; Nahirnick, N. K.; Zhuotong, Nan; Ojha, S.; Olsenholler, J.; Painter, T. H.; Pleasants, M.; Pratima, K. C.; Yuan, Q. I.; Raup, B. H.; Regmi, D.; Rounce, D. R.; Sakai, A.; Donghui, Shangguan; Shea, J. M.; Shrestha, A. B.; Shukla, A.; Stumm, D.; van der Kooij, M.; Voss, K.; Xin, Wang; Weihs, B.; Wolfe, D.; Lizong, Wu; Xiaojun, Yao; Yoder, M. R.; Young, N.

    2016-01-01

    The Gorkha earthquake (magnitude 7.8) on 25 April 2015 and later aftershocks struck South Asia, killing ~9000 people and damaging a large region. Supported by a large campaign of responsive satellite data acquisitions over the earthquake disaster zone, our team undertook a satellite image survey of

  1. Experiment on Hydraulic Fracturing in Rock and Induced Earthquake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Yuding; Li Yalin; Zhang Zhuan; Ouyang Lisheng; Xie Mingfu

    2005-01-01

    Experiment on rock hydraulic fracturing strength under different confining pressures was conducted on a series of test specimens with various pre-cracks prepared from 7 types of rock.Combining the data of an actual reservoir-induced earthquake with the experimental results of the contemporary tectonic stress field according to the theory of rock strength and the principle and method of rock fracture mechanics, the authors tentatively investigated the earthquakes induced by pore-water pressure in rock and obtained the initial results as follows: ( 1 ) One type of induced earthquake may occur in the case of larger tectonic stress on such weak planes that strike in similar orientation of principle tectonic compressional stress in the shallows of the rock mass; the pore-water pressure σp may generate tensile fracture on them and induce small earthquakes; (2) Two types of induced earthquake may occur in the case of larger tectonic stress, i.e., ① on such weakness planes that strike in similar orientation of principle tectonic compressioual stress, σ1, in the shallows of the rockmass, the pore-water pressure, σp, may generate tensile fracture on them and induce small earthquakes; ② When the tectonic stress approximates the shear strength of the fracture, the pore-water pressure σp may reduce the normal stress, σn, on the fracture face causing failure of the originally stable fracture,producing gliding fracture and thus inducing an earthquake. σp may also increase the fracture depth, leading to an induced earthquake with the magnitude larger than the previous potential magnitude; (3) There is a depth limit for each type of rock mass, and no induced earthquake will occur beyond this limit.

  2. Earthquakes and Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2008

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes are low-probability, high-consequence events. Though they may occur only once in the life of a school, they can have devastating, irreversible consequences. Moderate earthquakes can cause serious damage to building contents and non-structural building systems, serious injury to students and staff, and disruption of building operations.…

  3. Bam Earthquake in Iran

    CERN Multimedia

    2004-01-01

    Following their request for help from members of international organisations, the permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran has given the following bank account number, where you can donate money to help the victims of the Bam earthquake. Re: Bam earthquake 235 - UBS 311264.35L Bubenberg Platz 3001 BERN

  4. Statistical characteristics of seismo-ionospheric GPS TEC disturbances prior to global Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes (1998-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Munawar; Jin, Shuanggen

    2015-12-01

    Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies are still challenging and unclear to obtain and understand, particularly for different earthquake magnitudes and focal depths as well as types of fault. In this paper, the seismo-ionospheric disturbances (SID) related to global earthquakes with 1492 Mw ≥ 5.0 from 1998 to 2014 are investigated using the total electron content (TEC) of GPS global ionosphere maps (GIM). Statistical analysis of 10-day TEC data before global Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes shows significant enhancement 5 days before an earthquake of Mw ≥ 6.0 at a 95% confidence level. Earthquakes with a focal depth of less than 60 km and Mw ≥ 6.0 are presumably the root of deviation in the ionospheric TEC because earthquake breeding zones have gigantic quantities of energy at shallower focal depths. Increased anomalous TEC is recorded in cumulative percentages beyond Mw = 5.5. Sharpness in cumulative percentages is evident in seismo-ionospheric disturbance prior to Mw ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Seismo-ionospheric disturbances related to strike slip and thrust earthquakes are noticeable for magnitude Mw6.0-7.0 earthquakes. The relative values reveal high ratios (up to 2) and low ratios (up to -0.5) within 5 days prior to global earthquakes for positive and negative anomalies. The anomalous patterns in TEC related to earthquakes are possibly due to the coupling of high amounts of energy from earthquake breeding zones of higher magnitude and shallower focal depth.

  5. The SMART CLUSTER METHOD - adaptive earthquake cluster analysis and declustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Andreas; Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2016-04-01

    Earthquake declustering is an essential part of almost any statistical analysis of spatial and temporal properties of seismic activity with usual applications comprising of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs) and earthquake prediction methods. The nature of earthquake clusters and subsequent declustering of earthquake catalogues plays a crucial role in determining the magnitude-dependent earthquake return period and its respective spatial variation. Various methods have been developed to address this issue from other researchers. These have differing ranges of complexity ranging from rather simple statistical window methods to complex epidemic models. This study introduces the smart cluster method (SCM), a new methodology to identify earthquake clusters, which uses an adaptive point process for spatio-temporal identification. Hereby, an adaptive search algorithm for data point clusters is adopted. It uses the earthquake density in the spatio-temporal neighbourhood of each event to adjust the search properties. The identified clusters are subsequently analysed to determine directional anisotropy, focussing on a strong correlation along the rupture plane and adjusts its search space with respect to directional properties. In the case of rapid subsequent ruptures like the 1992 Landers sequence or the 2010/2011 Darfield-Christchurch events, an adaptive classification procedure is applied to disassemble subsequent ruptures which may have been grouped into an individual cluster using near-field searches, support vector machines and temporal splitting. The steering parameters of the search behaviour are linked to local earthquake properties like magnitude of completeness, earthquake density and Gutenberg-Richter parameters. The method is capable of identifying and classifying earthquake clusters in space and time. It is tested and validated using earthquake data from California and New Zealand. As a result of the cluster identification process, each event in

  6. Demand surge following earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Anna H.

    2012-01-01

    Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon where repair costs for the same damage are higher after large- versus small-scale natural disasters. It has reportedly increased monetary losses by 20 to 50%. In previous work, a model for the increased costs of reconstruction labor and materials was developed for hurricanes in the Southeast United States. The model showed that labor cost increases, rather than the material component, drove the total repair cost increases, and this finding could be extended to earthquakes. A study of past large-scale disasters suggested that there may be additional explanations for demand surge. Two such explanations specific to earthquakes are the exclusion of insurance coverage for earthquake damage and possible concurrent causation of damage from an earthquake followed by fire or tsunami. Additional research into these aspects might provide a better explanation for increased monetary losses after large- vs. small-scale earthquakes.

  7. Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN). A short report on recorded earthquakes during the fourth quarter of the year 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boedvarsson, Reynir (Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences (Sweden))

    2012-01-15

    According to an agreement with the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) and Uppsala University, the Department of Earth Sciences has continued to carry out observation and additional construction of new seismic stations within the Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN). This short report gives brief information about the recorded seismicity during October through December 2011. The Swedish National Seismic Network now consists of 65 stations. During October through December, 2,682 events were located whereof 165 are estimated as real earthquakes, 1,628 are estimated as explosions, 660 are induced earthquakes in the vicinity of the mines in Kiruna and Malmberget and 229 events are still considered as uncertain but these are most likely explosions and are mainly located outside the network. Seven earthquakes had magnitudes above M{sub L} = 2.0 during the period. In October two earthquakes had magnitudes above M{sub L} = 2.0. One with magnitude M{sub L} = 2.2 was located 24 km SE of Nikkaluokta and one earthquake with magnitude M{sub L} = 2.1 was located 28 km SW of Ludvika. In November an earthquake with magnitude M{sub L} = 2.2 was located 55 km north of Oevertorneaa and one with magnitude M{sub L} = 2.0 was located 6 km east of Grantraesk and 101 km NW of Umeaa. In December three earthquakes had magnitudes above M{sub L} = 2.0. One had a magnitude of M{sub L} = 2.8 and was located 22 km NW of Robertsfors and one earthquake with a magnitude of M{sub L} = 2.4 was located 25 km north of Robertsfors. One earthquake with magnitude M{sub L} = 2.2 was located 8 km west of Hudiksvall

  8. Astronomical Limiting Magnitude at Langkawi Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zainuddin, Mohd. Zambri; Loon, Chin Wei; Harun, Saedah

    2010-07-01

    Astronomical limiting magnitude is an indicator for astronomer to conduct astronomical measurement at a particular site. It gives an idea to astronomer of that site what magnitude of celestial object can be measured. Langkawi National Observatory (LNO) is situated at Bukit Malut with latitude 6°18' 25'' North and longitude 99°46' 52'' East in Langkawi Island. Sky brightness measurement has been performed at this site using the standard astronomical technique. The value of the limiting magnitude measured is V = 18.6+/-1.0 magnitude. This will indicate that astronomical measurement at Langkawi observatory can only be done for celestial objects having magnitude less than V = 18.6 magnitudes.

  9. Leadership in a Time of Adversity: A Story from the New Zealand Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Juliette

    2011-01-01

    At 12.51 p.m. on Tuesday, 22 February, Christchurch and the Canterbury region were hit with a 6.4 magnitude earthquake. While not as strong as the 7.1 magnitude earthquake experienced in September, this one was much more violent in its intensity and also occurred in the middle of a busy working and school day. A hundred and eighty people died in…

  10. Leadership in a Time of Adversity: A Story from the New Zealand Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Juliette

    2011-01-01

    At 12.51 p.m. on Tuesday, 22 February, Christchurch and the Canterbury region were hit with a 6.4 magnitude earthquake. While not as strong as the 7.1 magnitude earthquake experienced in September, this one was much more violent in its intensity and also occurred in the middle of a busy working and school day. A hundred and eighty people died in…

  11. Probability estimates of seismic event occurrence compared to health hazards - Forecasting Taipei's Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fung, D. C. N.; Wang, J. P.; Chang, S. H.; Chang, S. C.

    2014-12-01

    Using a revised statistical model built on past seismic probability models, the probability of different magnitude earthquakes occurring within variable timespans can be estimated. The revised model is based on Poisson distribution and includes the use of best-estimate values of the probability distribution of different magnitude earthquakes recurring from a fault from literature sources. Our study aims to apply this model to the Taipei metropolitan area with a population of 7 million, which lies in the Taipei Basin and is bounded by two normal faults: the Sanchaio and Taipei faults. The Sanchaio fault is suggested to be responsible for previous large magnitude earthquakes, such as the 1694 magnitude 7 earthquake in northwestern Taipei (Cheng et. al., 2010). Based on a magnitude 7 earthquake return period of 543 years, the model predicts the occurrence of a magnitude 7 earthquake within 20 years at 1.81%, within 79 years at 6.77% and within 300 years at 21.22%. These estimates increase significantly when considering a magnitude 6 earthquake; the chance of one occurring within the next 20 years is estimated to be 3.61%, 79 years at 13.54% and 300 years at 42.45%. The 79 year period represents the average lifespan of the Taiwan population. In contrast, based on data from 2013, the probability of Taiwan residents experiencing heart disease or malignant neoplasm is 11.5% and 29%. The inference of this study is that the calculated risk that the Taipei population is at from a potentially damaging magnitude 6 or greater earthquake occurring within their lifetime is just as great as of suffering from a heart attack or other health ailments.

  12. Comparing methods for Earthquake Location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkaya, Semih; Bodin, Thomas; Sylvander, Matthieu; Parroucau, Pierre; Manchuel, Kevin

    2017-04-01

    There are plenty of methods available for locating small magnitude point source earthquakes. However, it is known that these different approaches produce different results. For each approach, results also depend on a number of parameters which can be separated into two main branches: (1) parameters related to observations (number and distribution of for example) and (2) parameters related to the inversion process (velocity model, weighting parameters, initial location etc.). Currently, the results obtained from most of the location methods do not systematically include quantitative uncertainties. The effect of the selected parameters on location uncertainties is also poorly known. Understanding the importance of these different parameters and their effect on uncertainties is clearly required to better constrained knowledge on fault geometry, seismotectonic processes and at the end to improve seismic hazard assessment. In this work, realized in the frame of the SINAPS@ research program (http://www.institut-seism.fr/projets/sinaps/), we analyse the effect of different parameters on earthquakes location (e.g. type of phase, max. hypocentral separation etc.). We compare several codes available (Hypo71, HypoDD, NonLinLoc etc.) and determine their strengths and weaknesses in different cases by means of synthetic tests. The work, performed for the moment on synthetic data, is planned to be applied, in a second step, on data collected by the Midi-Pyrénées Observatory (OMP).

  13. Tsunamigenic Ratio of the Pacific Ocean earthquakes and a proposal for a Tsunami Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Suppasri

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Pacific Ocean is the location where two-thirds of tsunamis have occurred, resulting in a great number of casualties. Once information on an earthquake has been issued, it is important to understand if there is a tsunami generation risk in relation with a specific earthquake magnitude or focal depth. This study proposes a Tsunamigenic Ratio (TR that is defined as the ratio between the number of earthquake-generated tsunamis and the total number of earthquakes. Earthquake and tsunami data used in this study were selected from a database containing tsunamigenic earthquakes from prior 1900 to 2011. The TR is calculated from earthquake events with a magnitude greater than 5.0, a focal depth shallower than 200 km and a sea depth less than 7 km. The results suggest that a great earthquake magnitude and a shallow focal depth have a high potential to generate tsunamis with a large tsunami height. The average TR in the Pacific Ocean is 0.4, whereas the TR for specific regions of the Pacific Ocean varies from 0.3 to 0.7. The TR calculated for each region shows the relationship between three influential parameters: earthquake magnitude, focal depth and sea depth. The three parameters were combined and proposed as a dimensionless parameter called the Tsunami Index (TI. TI can express better relationship with the TR and with maximum tsunami height, while the three parameters mentioned above cannot. The results show that recent submarine earthquakes had a higher potential to generate a tsunami with a larger tsunami height than during the last century. A tsunami is definitely generated if the TI is larger than 7.0. The proposed TR and TI will help ascertain the tsunami generation risk of each earthquake event based on a statistical analysis of the historical data and could be an important decision support tool during the early tsunami warning stage.

  14. Identification of ionospheric GPS TEC anomalies prior to earthquake in Sumatra between 2007-2012 using correlation technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vita, Aprilia Nur; Putra, Shandy Yogaswara Surya; Subakti, Hendri; Muslim, Buldan

    2017-07-01

    The occurrence of great earthquake as natural disaster is unavoidable and resulting a great loss in economy and human lives. So earthquake mitigation is a must to avoid greater loss in future. Past studies showed that there was ionospheric perturbation due to earthquake occurrence. This study analyzed the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) before earthquake using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAR) within 27 days using correlation technique. Correlation technique with anomaly threshold value was conducted to identify ionospheric variation related with earthquake preparation. From September 2007 until September 2012, 12 earthquakes occurred with magnitude > 6.0 over Sumatra, Indonesia. In result, ten of them preceded by TEC anomaly 1 to 24 days before earthquakes hit. The anomaly of TEC value is considered as effect of earthquake preparation activity after geomagnetic data validation.

  15. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Peter M; Stark, Philip B

    2012-01-17

    The recent elevated rate of large earthquakes has fueled concern that the underlying global rate of earthquake activity has increased, which would have important implications for assessments of seismic hazard and our understanding of how faults interact. We examine the timing of large (magnitude M≥7) earthquakes from 1900 to the present, after removing local clustering related to aftershocks. The global rate of M≥8 earthquakes has been at a record high roughly since 2004, but rates have been almost as high before, and the rate of smaller earthquakes is close to its historical average. Some features of the global catalog are improbable in retrospect, but so are some features of most random sequences--if the features are selected after looking at the data. For a variety of magnitude cutoffs and three statistical tests, the global catalog, with local clusters removed, is not distinguishable from a homogeneous Poisson process. Moreover, no plausible physical mechanism predicts real changes in the underlying global rate of large events. Together these facts suggest that the global risk of large earthquakes is no higher today than it has been in the past.

  16. Regional Variations of the ω-upper Bound Magnitude of GIII Distribution in the Iranian Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Hiwa; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2016-08-01

    The Iranian Plateau does not appear to be a single crustal block, but an assemblage of zones comprising the Alborz—Azerbaijan, Zagros, Kopeh—Dagh, Makran, and Central and East Iran. The Gumbel's III asymptotic distribution method (GIII) and maximum magnitude expected by Kijko—Sellevoll method is applied in order to check the potentiality of the each seismogenic zone in the Iranian Plateau for the future occurrence of maximum magnitude ( M max). For this purpose, a homogeneous and complete seismicity database of the instrumental period during 1900-2012 is used in 29 seismogenic zones of the examined region. The spatial mapping of hazard parameters (upper bound magnitude ( ω), most probable earthquake magnitude in next 100 years ( M 100) and maximum magnitude expected by maximum magnitude estimated by Kijko—Sellevoll method (max M K - S max) reveals that Central and East Iran, Alborz and Azerbaijan, Kopeh—Dagh and SE Zagros are a dangerous place for the next occurrence of a large earthquake.

  17. Seismic swarm associated with the 2008 eruption of Kasatochi Volcano, Alaska: earthquake locations and source parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruppert, Natalia G.; Prejean, Stephanie G.; Hansen, Roger A.

    2011-01-01

    An energetic seismic swarm accompanied an eruption of Kasatochi Volcano in the central Aleutian volcanic arc in August of 2008. In retrospect, the first earthquakes in the swarm were detected about 1 month prior to the eruption onset. Activity in the swarm quickly intensified less than 48 h prior to the first large explosion and subsequently subsided with decline of eruptive activity. The largest earthquake measured as moment magnitude 5.8, and a dozen additional earthquakes were larger than magnitude 4. The swarm exhibited both tectonic and volcanic characteristics. Its shear failure earthquake features were b value = 0.9, most earthquakes with impulsive P and S arrivals and higher-frequency content, and earthquake faulting parameters consistent with regional tectonic stresses. Its volcanic or fluid-influenced seismicity features were volcanic tremor, large CLVD components in moment tensor solutions, and increasing magnitudes with time. Earthquake location tests suggest that the earthquakes occurred in a distributed volume elongated in the NS direction either directly under the volcano or within 5-10 km south of it. Following the MW 5.8 event, earthquakes occurred in a new crustal volume slightly east and north of the previous earthquakes. The central Aleutian Arc is a tectonically active region with seismicity occurring in the crusts of the Pacific and North American plates in addition to interplate events. We postulate that the Kasatochi seismic swarm was a manifestation of the complex interaction of tectonic and magmatic processes in the Earth's crust. Although magmatic intrusion triggered the earthquakes in the swarm, the earthquakes failed in context of the regional stress field.

  18. Characteristics of the Central Mexico Intermediate-Depth Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, J.; Quintanar, L.; Jimenez, Z.

    2001-12-01

    Moderate magnitude but damaging earthquakes occur frequently in the central part (18o N) of Mexico along an east-west limited (96o to 99o W) narrow belt. From 1928 through 2000 this region of western Guerrero and Puebla-Oaxaca has been the site of nine intermediate depth earthquakes of similar characteristics, normal faulting and a notable extent of felt area and damage northwestern of the epicenters. Earthquakes in this area are very important since they occur in the most populated region of Mexico and they are used frequently in the discussion of the feasibility of the seismic cycle hypothesis. In the present paper we made an overall analysis of the earthquakes to find out common features in an attempt to characterize the earthquakes of the region. Special emphasis is place on the 1980, 1999 and 2000 earthquakes since they are best documented. Recorded acceleration amplitudes of the Puebla earthquake of June 15, 1999 a typical earthquake of this region, show a clear enhancement in the frequency range of 0.06 Hz to 6.0 Hz that can be up to eight times higher toward the northwest of the epicenter as compared to the opposite direction. This feature, that seems common to earthquakes in the region can not be fully explained by the involved rupture processes. Therefore, we investigate the possibility that the apparent directivity could be due to a regional propagation effect by analyzing the Lg coda decay. Our result explains however, only partially the observed feature. We especulate that probably the presence to the north of the Transmexican Volcanic Belt plays an important role in controlling the enhancement of low frequency seismic signals and other features of the Central Mexico earthquakes.

  19. Nucleation speed limit on remote fluid-induced earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Tom; Malagnini, Luca; Akinci, Aybige

    2017-01-01

    Earthquakes triggered by other remote seismic events are explained as a response to long-traveling seismic waves that temporarily stress the crust. However, delays of hours or days after seismic waves pass through are reported by several studies, which are difficult to reconcile with the transient stresses imparted by seismic waves. We show that these delays are proportional to magnitude and that nucleation times are best fit to a fluid diffusion process if the governing rupture process involves unlocking a magnitude-dependent critical nucleation zone. It is well established that distant earthquakes can strongly affect the pressure and distribution of crustal pore fluids. Earth’s crust contains hydraulically isolated, pressurized compartments in which fluids are contained within low-permeability walls. We know that strong shaking induced by seismic waves from large earthquakes can change the permeability of rocks. Thus, the boundary of a pressurized compartment may see its permeability rise. Previously confined, overpressurized pore fluids may then diffuse away, infiltrate faults, decrease their strength, and induce earthquakes. Magnitude-dependent delays and critical nucleation zone conclusions can also be applied to human-induced earthquakes. PMID:28845448

  20. Nucleation speed limit on remote fluid induced earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Thomas E.; Akinci, Aybige; Malignini, Luca

    2017-01-01

    Earthquakes triggered by other remote seismic events are explained as a response to long-traveling seismic waves that temporarily stress the crust. However, delays of hours or days after seismic waves pass through are reported by several studies, which are difficult to reconcile with the transient stresses imparted by seismic waves. We show that these delays are proportional to magnitude and that nucleation times are best fit to a fluid diffusion process if the governing rupture process involves unlocking a magnitude-dependent critical nucleation zone. It is well established that distant earthquakes can strongly affect the pressure and distribution of crustal pore fluids. Earth’s crust contains hydraulically isolated, pressurized compartments in which fluids are contained within low-permeability walls. We know that strong shaking induced by seismic waves from large earthquakes can change the permeability of rocks. Thus, the boundary of a pressurized compartment may see its permeability rise. Previously confined, overpressurized pore fluids may then diffuse away, infiltrate faults, decrease their strength, and induce earthquakes. Magnitude-dependent delays and critical nucleation zone conclusions can also be applied to human-induced earthquakes.

  1. Has El Salvador Fault Zone produced M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes? The 1719 El Salvador earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canora, C.; Martínez-Díaz, J.; Álvarez-Gómez, J.; Villamor, P.; Ínsua-Arévalo, J.; Alonso-Henar, J.; Capote, R.

    2013-05-01

    Historically, large earthquakes, Mw ≥ 7.0, in the Εl Salvador area have been attributed to activity in the Cocos-Caribbean subduction zone. Τhis is correct for most of the earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.5. However, recent paleoseismic evidence points to the existence of large earthquakes associated with rupture of the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, an Ε-W oriented strike slip fault system that extends for 150 km through central Εl Salvador. Τo calibrate our results from paleoseismic studies, we have analyzed the historical seismicity of the area. In particular, we suggest that the 1719 earthquake can be associated with paleoseismic activity evidenced in the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone. Α reinterpreted isoseismal map for this event suggests that the damage reported could have been a consequence of the rupture of Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, rather than rupture of the subduction zone. Τhe isoseismal is not different to other upper crustal earthquakes in similar tectonovolcanic environments. We thus challenge the traditional assumption that only the subduction zone is capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 in this region. Τhis result has broad implications for future risk management in the region. Τhe potential occurrence of strong ground motion, significantly higher and closer to the Salvadorian populations that those assumed to date, must be considered in seismic hazard assessment studies in this area.

  2. Earthquake forecast enrichment scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Smyth

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP is a global project aimed at testing earthquake forecast models in a fair environment. Various metrics are currently used to evaluate the submitted forecasts. However, the CSEP still lacks easily understandable metrics with which to rank the universal performance of the forecast models. In this research, we modify a well-known and respected metric from another statistical field, bioinformatics, to make it suitable for evaluating earthquake forecasts, such as those submitted to the CSEP initiative. The metric, originally called a gene-set enrichment score, is based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. Our modified metric assesses if, over a certain time period, the forecast values at locations where earthquakes have occurred are significantly increased compared to the values for all locations where earthquakes did not occur. Permutation testing allows for a significance value to be placed upon the score. Unlike the metrics currently employed by the CSEP, the score places no assumption on the distribution of earthquake occurrence nor requires an arbitrary reference forecast. In this research, we apply the modified metric to simulated data and real forecast data to show it is a powerful and robust technique, capable of ranking competing earthquake forecasts.

  3. Phase Transformations and Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, H. W.

    2011-12-01

    Phase transformations have been cited as responsible for, or at least involved in, "deep" earthquakes for many decades (although the concept of "deep" has varied). In 1945, PW Bridgman laid out in detail the string of events/conditions that would have to be achieved for a solid/solid transformation to lead to a faulting instability, although he expressed pessimism that the full set of requirements would be simultaneously achieved in nature. Raleigh and Paterson (1965) demonstrated faulting during dehydration of serpentine under stress and suggested dehydration embrittlement as the cause of intermediate depth earthquakes. Griggs and Baker (1969) produced a thermal runaway model of a shear zone under constant stress, culminating in melting, and proposed such a runaway as the origin of deep earthquakes. The discovery of Plate Tectonics in the late 1960s established the conditions (subduction) under which Bridgman's requirements for earthquake runaway in a polymorphic transformation could be possible in nature and Green and Burnley (1989) found that instability during the transformation of metastable olivine to spinel. Recent seismic correlation of intermediate-depth-earthquake hypocenters with predicted conditions of dehydration of antigorite serpentine and discovery of metastable olivine in 4 subduction zones, suggests strongly that dehydration embrittlement and transformation-induced faulting are the underlying mechanisms of intermediate and deep earthquakes, respectively. The results of recent high-speed friction experiments and analysis of natural fault zones suggest that it is likely that similar processes occur commonly during many shallow earthquakes after initiation by frictional failure.

  4. A study on the temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts following earthquakes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Kai; Tang Mao-Cang; Gao Xiao-Qing

    2013-01-01

    According to the“jacking-up”theory, which relates the cause of earthquakes to outer core convection ascension bodies, the crust will gradually recover after an earthquake. In such cases, the crust is stretched, the underground temperature is reduced, precipitation decreases, and drought occurs. In this paper, precipitation is compared with ground temperature and seismic data to determine the spatial and temporal relationship between earthquakes and subsequent droughts. Our objective is to develop a new method of drought prediction. With a few exceptions in location, the analysis of the first drought to occur after the Ms ≥ 7 earthquakes in mainland China and the adjacent areas since 1950 shows that droughts tended to occur in regions near earthquake epicenters and in the eastern regions of the epicenters at the same latitude within six months after the earthquakes. In addition, and the differences between the starting time of the earthquakes and the droughts nearly share the same probability of 0 to 6 months. After careful analysis of 34 Ms ≥ 6.5 earthquakes occurring in western China from 1980 to 2011, we determined that a second drought tends to occur approximately six months following the first drought, indicating a quasi-half-year period. Moreover, the duration of the quasi-half-year fluctuation increases with the magnitude of earthquake, at approximately 2.5 years for Ms 6.5 earthquake and approximately 5 years for Ms 8 earthquake.

  5. A new reference global instrumental earthquake catalogue (1900-2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Giacomo, D.; Engdahl, B.; Bondar, I.; Storchak, D. A.; Villasenor, A.; Bormann, P.; Lee, W.; Dando, B.; Harris, J.

    2011-12-01

    For seismic hazard studies on a global and/or regional scale, accurate knowledge of the spatial distribution of seismicity, the magnitude-frequency relation and the maximum magnitudes is of fundamental importance. However, such information is normally not homogeneous (or not available) for the various seismically active regions of the Earth. To achieve the GEM objectives (www.globalquakemodel.org) of calculating and communicating earthquake risk worldwide, an improved reference global instrumental catalogue for large earthquakes spanning the entire 100+ years period of instrumental seismology is an absolute necessity. To accomplish this task, we apply the most up-to-date techniques and standard observatory practices for computing the earthquake location and magnitude. In particular, the re-location procedure benefits both from the depth determination according to Engdahl and Villaseñor (2002), and the advanced technique recently implemented at the ISC (Bondár and Storchak, 2011) to account for correlated error structure. With regard to magnitude, starting from the re-located hypocenters, the classical surface and body-wave magnitudes are determined following the new IASPEI standards and by using amplitude-period data of phases collected from historical station bulletins (up to 1970), which were not available in digital format before the beginning of this work. Finally, the catalogue will provide moment magnitude values (including uncertainty) for each seismic event via seismic moment, via surface wave magnitude or via other magnitude types using empirical relationships. References Engdahl, E.R., and A. Villaseñor (2002). Global seismicity: 1900-1999. In: International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology, eds. W.H.K. Lee, H. Kanamori, J.C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger, Part A, 665-690, Academic Press, San Diego. Bondár, I., and D. Storchak (2011). Improved location procedures at the International Seismological Centre, Geophys. J. Int., doi:10.1111/j

  6. Except in Highly Idealized Cases, Repeating Earthquakes and Laboratory Earthquakes are Neither Time- nor Slip-Predictable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubinstein, J. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Beeler, N. M.; Chen, K. H.; Lockner, D. A.; Uchida, N.

    2010-12-01

    Sequences of repeating earthquakes in California, Taiwan and Japan are characterized by interevent times that are more regular than expected from a Poisson process, and are better described by a 2-parameter renewal model (mean rate and variability) of independent and identically distributed intervals that only depends on the time of the last event. Using precise measurements of the relative size of earthquakes in each repeating earthquake family we examine the additional predictive power of the time- and slip-predictable models. We find that neither model offers statistically significant predictive power over a renewal model. In a highly idealized laboratory system, we find that earthquakes are both time- and slip-predictable, but with the addition of a small amount of the complexity (e.g., an uneven fault surface) the time- and slip-predictable models offer little or no advantage over a much simpler renewal model that has constant slip or constant recurrence intervals. Given that repeating natural and laboratory earthquakes are not well explained by either time- or slip-predictability, we conclude that these models are too idealized to explain the recurrence behavior of natural earthquakes. These models likely fail because their key assumptions (1 -- constant loading rate, 2 -- constant failure threshold OR constant final stress, and 3 - the fault is locked throughout the loading cycle) are too idealized to apply in a complex, natural system. While the time- and slip-predictable models do not appear to work for natural earthquakes, we do note that moment (slip) scales with recurrence time according to the mean magnitude of each repeating earthquake family in Parkfield, CA, but not in the other locations. While earthquake size and recurrence time are related in Parkfield, the simplest slip-predictable model still doesn’t work because fitting a linear trend to the data predicts a non-zero earthquake size at instantaneous recurrence time. This scaling, its presence

  7. The middle-long term prediction of the February 3, 1996 Lijiang earthquake (M S=7) by the ``criterion of activity in quiescence''

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng-Jian, Guo; Bao-Yan, Qin

    2000-07-01

    Earthquake activities in history are characterized by active and quiet periods. In the quiet period, the place where earthquake M S≥6 occurred means more elastic energy store and speedy energy accumulation there. When an active period of big earthquake activity appeared in wide region, in the place where earthquake (M S≥6) occurred in the past quiet period, the big earthquake with magnitude of 7 or more often occur there. We call the above-mentioned judgement for predicting big earthquake the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The criterion is relatively effective for predicting location of big earthquake. In general, error of predicting epicenter is no more than 100 km. According to the criterion, we made successfully a middle-term prediction on the 1996 Lijiang earthquake in Yunnan Province, the error of predicted location is about 50 km. Besides, the 1994 Taiwan strait earthquake (M S=7.3), the 1995 Yunnan-Myanmar boundary earthquake (M S=7.2) and the Mani earthquake (M S=7.9) in north Tibet are accordant with the retrospective predictions by the “criterion of activity in quiescence”. The windows of “activity in quiescence” identified statistically by us are 1940 1945, 1958 1961 and 1979 1986. Using the “criterion of activity in quiescence” to predict big earthquake in the mainland of China, the earthquake defined by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 6 or more; For the Himalayas seismic belt, the Pacific seismic belt and the north-west boundary seismic belt of Xinjiang, the earthquake defined by “activity in quiescence” has magnitude of 7, which is corresponding to earthquake with magnitude of much more than 7 in future. For the regions where there are not tectonically and historically a possibility of occurring big earthquake (M S=7), the criterion of activity in quiescence is not effective.

  8. A search for long-term periodicities in large earthquakes of southern and coastal central California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stothers, Richard B.

    1990-01-01

    It has been occasionally suggested that large earthquakes may follow the 8.85-year and 18.6-year lunar-solar tidal cycles and possibly the approximately 11-year solar activity cycle. From a new study of earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5.5 in southern and coastal central California during the years 1855-1983, it is concluded that, at least in this selected area of the world, no statistically significant long-term periodicities in earthquake frequency occur. The sample size used is about twice that used in comparable earlier studies of this region, which concentrated on large earthquakes.

  9. Southern Perú coseismic subsidence: 23 June 2001 8.4-Mw earthquake

    OpenAIRE

    Ocola, L.

    2008-01-01

    International audience; The 23-June-2001 8.4-Mw magnitude earthquake partially filled the 1868-seismic-gap in southern Perú. This earthquake produced a thrust faulting dislocation with a rupture that started at about ~200 km SE from the 1996's Nazca earthquake epicenter, and stopped near Ilo, at about 300 km from the epicenter, near a positive gravity anomaly offshore Ilo. The 23-June-2001-earthquake dislocation zone is under the Arequipa sedimentary Basin. Pre- and post-seismic GPS measureme...

  10. Basic earthquake engineering from seismology to analysis and design

    CERN Document Server

    Sucuoğlu, Halûk

    2014-01-01

    This book provides senior undergraduate students, master students and structural engineers who do not have a background in the field with core knowledge of structural earthquake engineering that will be invaluable in their professional lives. The basics of seismotectonics, including the causes, magnitude, and intensity of earthquakes, are first explained. Then the book introduces basic elements of seismic hazard analysis and presents the concept of a seismic hazard map for use in seismic design. Subsequent chapters cover key aspects of the response analysis of simple systems and building struc­tures to earthquake ground motions, design spectrum, the adoption of seismic analysis procedures in seismic design codes, seismic design principles and seismic design of reinforced concrete structures. Helpful worked examples on seismic analysis of linear, nonlinear and base isolated buildings, earthquake-resistant design of frame and frame-shear wall systems are included, most of which can be solved using a hand calcu...

  11. Google Mapplets for Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haefner, S. A.; Venezky, D. Y.

    2007-12-01

    The USGS Earthquake and Volcano Hazards Programs monitor, assess, and issue warnings of natural hazards. Users can access our hazards information through our web pages, RSS feeds, and now through USGS Mapplets. Mapplets allow third party data layers to be added on top of Google Maps (http://maps.google.com - My Maps tab). Mapplets are created by parsing a GeoRSS feed, which involves searching through an XML file for location data and plotting the associated information on a map. The new Mapplets allow users to view both real-time earthquakes and current volcanic activity on the same map for the first time. In addition, the USGS Mapplets have been added to Google's extensive collection of Mapplets, allowing users to add the types of information they want to see on their own customized maps. The Earthquake Mapplet plots the past week of earthquakes around the world, showing the location, time and magnitude. The Volcano Mapplet displays the latest U.S. volcano updates, including the current level of both ground-based and aviation hazards. Join us to discuss how Mapplets are made and how they can be used to create your own customized map.

  12. Changes in groundwater chemistry before two consecutive earthquakes in Iceland

    KAUST Repository

    Skelton, Alasdair

    2014-09-21

    Groundwater chemistry has been observed to change before earthquakes and is proposed as a precursor signal. Such changes include variations in radon count rates1, 2, concentrations of dissolved elements3, 4, 5 and stable isotope ratios4, 5. Changes in seismic wave velocities6, water levels in boreholes7, micro-seismicity8 and shear wave splitting9 are also thought to precede earthquakes. Precursor activity has been attributed to expansion of rock volume7, 10, 11. However, most studies of precursory phenomena lack sufficient data to rule out other explanations unrelated to earthquakes12. For example, reproducibility of a precursor signal has seldom been shown and few precursors have been evaluated statistically. Here we analyse the stable isotope ratios and dissolved element concentrations of groundwater taken from a borehole in northern Iceland between 2008 and 2013. We find that the chemistry of the groundwater changed four to six months before two greater than magnitude 5 earthquakes that occurred in October 2012 and April 2013. Statistical analyses indicate that the changes in groundwater chemistry were associated with the earthquakes. We suggest that the changes were caused by crustal dilation associated with stress build-up before each earthquake, which caused different groundwater components to mix. Although the changes we detect are specific for the site in Iceland, we infer that similar processes may be active elsewhere, and that groundwater chemistry is a promising target for future studies on the predictability of earthquakes.

  13. Application of Astronomic Time-latitude Residuals in Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanben, Han; Lihua, Ma; Hui, Hu; Rui, Wang; Youjin, Su

    2007-04-01

    After the earthquake (Ms = 6.1) occurred in Luquan county of Yunnan province on April 18, 1985, the relationship between major earthquakes and astronomical time-latitude residuals (ATLR) of a photoelectric astrolabe in Yunnan Observatory was analyzed. ATLR are the rest after deducting the effects of Earth’s whole motion from the observations of time and latitude. It was found that there appeared the anomalies of the ATLR before earthquakes which happened in and around Yunnan, a seismic active region. The reason of the anomalies is possibly from change of the plumb line due to the motion of the groundmass before earthquakes. Afterwards, using studies of the anomalous characters and laws of ATLR, we tried to provide the warning information prior to the occurrence of a few major earthquakes in the region. The significant synchronous anomalies of ATLR of the observatory appeared before the earthquake of magnitude 6.2 in Dayao county of Yunnan province, on July 21, 2003. It has been again verified that the anomalies possibly provide the prediction information for strong earthquakes around the observatory.

  14. Earthquake Disaster Management and Insurance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2004-01-01

    As one of the most powerful tools to reduce the earthquake loss, the Earthquake Disaster Management [EDM] and Insurance [EI] have been highlighted and have had a great progress in many countries in recent years. Earthquake disaster management includes a series of contents, such as earthquake hazard and risk analysis, vulnerability analysis of building and infrastructure, earthquake aware training, and building the emergency response system. EI, which has been included in EDM after this practice has been...

  15. Earthquakes and emergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earthquakes and emerging infections may not have a direct cause and effect relationship like tax evasion and jail, but new evidence suggests that there may be a link between the two human health hazards. Various media accounts have cited a massive 1993 earthquake in Maharashtra as a potential catalyst of the recent outbreak of plague in India that has claimed more than 50 lives and alarmed the world. The hypothesis is that the earthquake may have uprooted underground rat populations that carry the fleas infected with the bacterium that causes bubonic plague and can lead to the pneumonic form of the disease that is spread through the air.

  16. Earthquake engineering in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, N.J

    1983-01-01

    During the last decade, earthquake engineering research in Peru has been carried out at the Catholic University of Peru and at the Universidad Nacional de Ingeniera (UNI). The Geophysical Institute (IGP) under the auspices of the Organization of American States (OAS) has initiated in Peru other efforts in regional seismic hazard assessment programs with direct impact to the earthquake engineering program. Further details on these programs have been reported by L. Ocola in the Earthquake Information Bulletin, January-February 1982, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 33-38. 

  17. The Kresna earthquake of 1904 in Bulgaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. N. Ambraseys

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available The Kresna earthquake in 1904 in Bulgaria is one of the largest shallow 20th century events on land in the Balkans. This event, which was preceded by a large foreshock, has hitherto been assigned a range of magnitudes up to M S = 7.8 but the reappraisal of instrumental data yields a much smaller value of M S = 7.2 and a re-assement of the intensity distribution suggests 7.1. Thus both instrumental and macroseismic data appear consistent with a magnitude which is also compatible with the fault segmentation and local morphology of the region which cannot accommodate shallow events much larger than about 7.0. The relatively large size of the main shock suggests surface faulting but the available field evidence is insufficient to establish the dimensions, attitude andamount of dislocation, except perhaps in the vicinity of Krupnik. This downsizing of the Kresna earthquake has important consequences for tectonics and earthquake hazard estimates in the Balkans.

  18. Scientific goals of the Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thatcher, W.

    1988-01-01

    Several unique circumstances of the Parkfield experiment provide unprecedented opportunities for significant advances in understanding the mechanics of earthquakes. to our knowledge, there is no other seismic zone anywhere where the time, place, and magnitude of an impending earthquake are specified as precisely. Moreover, the epicentral region is located on continental crust, is readily accessible, and can support a range of dense monitoring networks that are sited either on or very close to the expected rupture surface. As a result, the networks located at Parkfield are several orders of magnitude more sensitive than any previously deployed for monitoring earthquake precursors (a preearthquake change in strain, seismicity, and other geophysical parameters). In this respect the design of the Parkfield experiment resembles the rationale for constructing a new, more powerful nuclear particle accelerator:in both cases increased capabilities will test existing theories, reveal new phenomena, and suggest new research directions. 

  19. Delineating Concealed Faults within Cogdell Oil Field via Earthquake Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, C.; Walter, J. I.; Brudzinski, M.; Skoumal, R.; Savvaidis, A.; Frohlich, C.; Borgfeldt, T.; Dotray, P.

    2016-12-01

    Cogdell oil field, located within the Permian Basin of western Texas, has experienced several earthquakes ranging from magnitude 1.7 to 4.6, most of which were recorded since 2006. Using the Earthscope USArray, Gan and Frohlich [2013] relocated some of these events and found a positive correlation in the timing of increased earthquake activity and increased CO2 injection volume. However, focal depths of these earthquakes are unknown due to 70 km station spacing of the USArray. Accurate focal depths as well as new detections can delineate subsurface faults and establish whether earthquakes are occurring in the shallow sediments or in the deeper basement. To delineate subsurface fault(s) in this region, we first detect earthquakes not currently listed in the USGS catalog by applying continuous waveform-template matching algorithms to multiple seismic data sets. We utilize seismic data spanning the time frame of 2006 to 2016 - which includes data from the U.S. Geological Survey Global Seismographic Network, the USArray, and the Sweetwater, TX broadband and nodal array located 20-40 km away. The catalog of earthquakes enhanced by template matching reveals events that were well recorded by the large-N Sweetwater array, so we are experimenting with strategies for optimizing template matching using different configurations of many stations. Since earthquake activity in the Cogdell oil field is on-going (a magnitude 2.6 occurred on May 29, 2016), a temporary deployment of TexNet seismometers has been planned for the immediate vicinity of Cogdell oil field in August 2016. Results on focal depths and detection of small magnitude events are pending this small local network deployment.

  20. Understanding the magnitude dependence of PGA and PGV in NGA-West 2 data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baltay, Annemarie S.; Hanks, Thomas C.

    2014-01-01

    The Next Generation Attenuation‐West 2 (NGA‐West 2) 2014 ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) model ground motions as a function of magnitude and distance, using empirically derived coefficients (e.g., Bozorgniaet al., 2014); as such, these GMPEs do not clearly employ earthquake source parameters beyond moment magnitude (M) and focal mechanism. To better understand the magnitude‐dependent trends in the GMPEs, we build a comprehensive earthquake source‐based model to explain the magnitude dependence of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity in the NGA‐West 2 ground‐motion databases and GMPEs. Our model employs existing models (Hanks and McGuire, 1981; Boore, 1983, 1986; Anderson and Hough, 1984) that incorporate a point‐source Brune model, including a constant stress drop and the high‐frequency attenuation parameter κ0, random vibration theory, and a finite‐fault assumption at the large magnitudes to describe the data from magnitudes 3 to 8. We partition this range into four different magnitude regions, each of which has different functional dependences on M. Use of the four magnitude partitions separately allows greater understanding of what happens in any one subrange, as well as the limiting conditions between the subranges. This model provides a remarkably good fit to the NGA data for magnitudes from 3ground‐motion models and data, which play an important role in understanding small‐magnitude data, for which the corner frequency is masked by the attenuation of high frequencies. That this simple, source‐based model matches the NGA‐West 2 GMPEs and data so well suggests that considerable simplicity underlies the parametrically complex NGA GMPEs.

  1. Morlet Wavelet Analysis of ML >= 3 Earthquakes in the Taipei Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kou-Cheng Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available ML >= 3 earthquakes (ML = local magnitude that occurred in the Taipei Metropolitan Area (TMA from 1973 - 2013 are selected to study the dominant seismicity period of this area. The epicentral distribution and temporal sequences of earthquake magnitudes are simply described. These earthquakes can be divided into two groups: one for events shallower than 40 km and one for events deeper than 60 km. Shallow earthquakes are located mainly in the 0 - 10 km depth range north of 25.1°N,25.1°N, and down to 35 km for those south of 25.1°N.25.1°N. Deep events are located in the subduction zone, with a dip angle of about 70°.70°. The Morlet wavelet technique is applied to analyze the dominant periods of temporal variations in numbers of monthly earthquakes in the shallow and deep ranges for three magnitude ranges, i.e., ML >= 3, 4, and 5. The results show that for shallow earthquakes the dominant periods are 15.4, 30.8, 66.1, and 132.2 months when ML >= 3 and 30.8 months when ML >= 4; while for deep earthquakes, the dominant periods are 16.5 and 141.7 months when ML >= 3 and 141.7 months when ML >= 4. The dominant period cannot be obtained for both shallow and deep ML >= 5 earthquakes.

  2. The discovery and comparison of symbolic magnitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dawn; Lu, Hongjing; Holyoak, Keith J

    2014-06-01

    Humans and other primates are able to make relative magnitude comparisons, both with perceptual stimuli and with symbolic inputs that convey magnitude information. Although numerous models of magnitude comparison have been proposed, the basic question of how symbolic magnitudes (e.g., size or intelligence of animals) are derived and represented in memory has received little attention. We argue that symbolic magnitudes often will not correspond directly to elementary features of individual concepts. Rather, magnitudes may be formed in working memory based on computations over more basic features stored in long-term memory. We present a model of how magnitudes can be acquired and compared based on BARTlet, a representationally simpler version of Bayesian Analogy with Relational Transformations (BART; Lu, Chen, & Holyoak, 2012). BARTlet operates on distributions of magnitude variables created by applying dimension-specific weights (learned with the aid of empirical priors derived from pre-categorical comparisons) to more primitive features of objects. The resulting magnitude distributions, formed and maintained in working memory, are sensitive to contextual influences such as the range of stimuli and polarity of the question. By incorporating psychological reference points that control the precision of magnitudes in working memory and applying the tools of signal detection theory, BARTlet is able to account for a wide range of empirical phenomena involving magnitude comparisons, including the symbolic distance effect and the semantic congruity effect. We discuss the role of reference points in cognitive and social decision-making, and implications for the evolution of relational representations.

  3. Determination of the meteor limiting magnitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingery, A.; Blaauw, R. C.

    2017-09-01

    We present our method to calculate the meteor limiting magnitude. The limiting meteor magnitude defines the faintest magnitude at which all meteors are still detected by a given system. An accurate measurement of the limiting magnitude is important in order to calculate the meteoroid flux from a meteor shower or sporadic source. Since meteor brightness is linked to meteor mass, the limiting magnitude is needed to calculate the limiting mass of the meteor flux measurement. The mass distribution of meteoroids is thought to follow a power law, thus being slightly off in the limiting magnitude can have a significant effect on the measured flux. Sky conditions can change on fairly short timescales; therefore one must monitor the meteor limiting magnitude at regular intervals throughout the night, rather than just measuring it once. We use the stellar limiting magnitude as a proxy of the meteor limiting magnitude. Our method for determining the stellar limiting magnitude and how we transform it into the meteor limiting magnitude is presented. These methods are currently applied to NASA's wide-field meteor camera network to determine nightly fluxes, but are applicable to other camera networks.

  4. Exceptional Ground Accelerations and Velocities Caused by Earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, John

    2008-01-17

    This project aims to understand the characteristics of the free-field strong-motion records that have yielded the 100 largest peak accelerations and the 100 largest peak velocities recorded to date. The peak is defined as the maximum magnitude of the acceleration or velocity vector during the strong shaking. This compilation includes 35 records with peak acceleration greater than gravity, and 41 records with peak velocities greater than 100 cm/s. The results represent an estimated 150,000 instrument-years of strong-motion recordings. The mean horizontal acceleration or velocity, as used for the NGA ground motion models, is typically 0.76 times the magnitude of this vector peak. Accelerations in the top 100 come from earthquakes as small as magnitude 5, while velocities in the top 100 all come from earthquakes with magnitude 6 or larger. Records are dominated by crustal earthquakes with thrust, oblique-thrust, or strike-slip mechanisms. Normal faulting mechanisms in crustal earthquakes constitute under 5% of the records in the databases searched, and an even smaller percentage of the exceptional records. All NEHRP site categories have contributed exceptional records, in proportions similar to the extent that they are represented in the larger database.

  5. Shikotan, Kuril Islands Earthquake, October 4, 1994, Set 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A magnitude 8.1 earthquake occurred in the southern Kurils and on northern Hokkaido on Tuesday, October 5, 1994, (October 4 at 13:23 GMT). It was a sudden event,...

  6. Northridge, California Earthquake, January 17, 1994, Set 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — At 4:31 A.M. (Local time) on Monday, January 17, 1994, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake twenty miles west northwest of downtown Los Angeles awoke nearly everyone in...

  7. Earthquakes, Accounting Theory and the Art of Flexibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosslamber, Rob

    2011-01-01

    Tuesday, 22 February was the second day of the University of Canterbury (UC) in Christchurch, New Zealand 2011 academic year and the author was preparing lectures for Accounting Theory (ACCT311) in his sixth-floor office of the Commerce building when a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck. Although no university buildings collapsed, it soon became…

  8. Earthquake Damage in Mexico City, Mexico, September 19, 1985

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — On September 19, 1985, a magnitude 8.1 earthquake occurred off the Pacific coast of Mexico. The damage was concentrated in a 25 km2 area of Mexico City, 350 km from...

  9. Relations between source parameters for large Persian earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Nemati

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Empirical relationships for magnitude scales and fault parameters were produced using 436 Iranian intraplate earthquakes of recently regional databases since the continental events represent a large portion of total seismicity of Iran. The relations between different source parameters of the earthquakes were derived using input information which has usefully been provided from the databases after 1900. Suggested equations for magnitude scales relate the body-wave, surface-wave as well as local magnitude scales to scalar moment of the earthquakes. Also, dependence of source parameters as surface and subsurface rupture length and maximum surface displacement on the moment magnitude for some well documented earthquakes was investigated. For meeting this aim, ordinary linear regression procedures were employed for all relations. Our evaluations reveal a fair agreement between obtained relations and equations described in other worldwide and regional works in literature. The M0-mb and M0-MS equations are correlated well to the worldwide relations. Also, both M0-MS and M0-ML relations have a good agreement with regional studies in Taiwan. The equations derived from this study mainly confirm the results of the global investigations about rupture length of historical and instrumental events. However, some relations like MW-MN and MN-ML which are remarkably unlike to available regional works (e.g., American and Canadian were also found.

  10. Earthquakes, Accounting Theory and the Art of Flexibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosslamber, Rob

    2011-01-01

    Tuesday, 22 February was the second day of the University of Canterbury (UC) in Christchurch, New Zealand 2011 academic year and the author was preparing lectures for Accounting Theory (ACCT311) in his sixth-floor office of the Commerce building when a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck. Although no university buildings collapsed, it soon became…

  11. Great Alaska Earthquake, Prince William Sound, March 28, 1964

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Prince William Sound magnitude 8.4 earthquake at 03:36 UT on March 28, 1964, was one of the largest shocks ever recorded on the North American Continent. The...

  12. Chi-Chi, Taiwan Earthquake, September 21, 1999

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — On September 21, 1999, at 1:47 AM local time, a magnitude MW 7.6 earthquake was felt throughout the island of Taiwan. A five county area, including the city of...

  13. Increased stream discharge after the 3 September 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manga, Michael; Wang, Chi-Yuen; Shirzaei, Manoochehr

    2016-11-01

    Earthquakes influence hydrogeological processes and properties in Earth's crust, some of which affect surface waters. We document increased discharge in a stream after the 3 September 2016 Mw 5.8 earthquake near Pawnee, Oklahoma, an event likely induced by underground wastewater disposal. Discharge increased by an order of magnitude and remained elevated until the change was obscured by rain 1 week later. Given the earthquake magnitude and distance from the stream, by comparison with previous examples of responses to earthquakes, increased discharge after this earthquake is expected. While the mechanism increasing discharge cannot be confirmed, the observations require changes in physical properties of the subsurface. Fluid injection may thus influence hydrogeological properties of shallow groundwater systems and aquifers indirectly by inducing seismicity, if the induced seismic events are large enough.

  14. Long aseismic slip duration of the 2006 Java tsunami earthquake based on GPS data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rio Raharja

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The Java earthquake occurred on July 17, 2006 with magnitude 7.8 associated to the subduction process of Indo-Australian plate and Sundaland block off southwestern coast of Java. We present postseismic deformation parameters of the 2006 Java earthquake analyzed using campaign GPS observation from 2006 to 2008 and continuous observation from 2007 to 2014. We use an analytical approach of logarithmic and exponential functions to model these GPS data. We find that the decay time in the order of hundreds of days after the mainshock as observed by 8 years’ data after the mainshock for magnitude 7 earthquake is longer than a general megathrust earthquake event. Our findings suggest that the 2006 Java earthquake which is considered as “tsunami earthquake” most probably occurred in the region that has low rigidity and tends to continuously slip for long time periods.

  15. Identification of earthquakes that generate tsunamis in Java and Nusa Tenggara using rupture duration analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pribadi, S., E-mail: sugengpribadimsc@gmail.com [Tsunami Warning Information Division, Indonesian Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Jalan Angkasa I No. 2, Jakarta13920 and Graduate Student of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of T (Indonesia); Puspito, N. T.; Yudistira, T.; Afnimar,; Ibrahim, G. [Global Geophysics Research Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Laksono, B. I. [Database Maintenance Division, Indonesian Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Jalan Angkasa I No.2, Jakarta 13920 (Indonesia); Adnan, Z. [Database Maintenance Division, Indonesian Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Jalan Angkasa I No. 2, Jakarta 13920 and Graduate Student of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of Technol (Indonesia)

    2014-09-25

    Java and Nusa Tenggara are the tectonically active of Sunda arc. This study discuss the rupture duration as a manifestation of the power of earthquake-generated tsunami. We use the teleseismic (30° - 90°) body waves with high-frequency energy Seismometer is from IRIS network as amount 206 broadband units. We applied the Butterworth high bandpass (1 - 2 Hz) filtered. The arrival and travel times started from wave phase of P - PP which based on Jeffrey Bullens table with TauP program. The results are that the June 2, 1994 Banyuwangi and the July 17, 2006 Pangandaran earthquakes identified as tsunami earthquakes with long rupture duration (To > 100 second), medium magnitude (7.6 < Mw < 7.9) and located near the trench. The others are 4 tsunamigenic earthquakes and 3 inland earthquakes with short rupture duration start from To > 50 second which depend on its magnitude. Those events are located far from the trench.

  16. A Robust Scheme for the Global Earthquake Early Warning Based on Characteristic Frequency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yu-Chang; Chiao, Ling-Yun; Wu, Cheng-Ju

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake hazards mitigation have always been an important issue. Prompt and rapid high precision magnitude estimation is essential to achieve the goal of effective early warning. However, the current state of the method including the maximum predominant period (τpmax), the vertical displacement of P-wave (Pd), and the τc × Pdmethod has reached a standstill for nearly a decade. The major shortcoming is that these methods are not quite applicable for large earthquakes (M>7). Therefore, a new magnitude estimation method for earthquake early warning is crucial and is needed for human preventing loss and casualties in the large earthquakes. Here we demonstrate a robust scheme based on the characteristic frequency. Our result shows a linear relation between the momentum magnitude and the characteristic frequency of P-wave which appears within the first few seconds. This method requires fewer calculations and doesn't need to apply any filter to obtain better results, so the data processing time needed for the real-time earthquake early warning system is greatly reduced. This method also indicates strong applicability for estimating earthquakes with magnitude larger than 7. We demonstrate a robust scheme of global earthquake early warning.

  17. Regional long-period magnitude scales and their capabilities for tsunami warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusev, A. A.; Chubarova, O. S.

    2016-12-01

    The tsunami warning system in the Russian Far East employs the medium-period magnitude MS (BB) by Vaniek-Soloviev. However, its use may lead to inadequacies and underestimates for the tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake. Specifically, this can happen in the case of a so-called tsunami-earthquake. This kind of earthquakes with a nonstandard spectrum was revealed by H. Kanamori in 1972. This problem can be overcome by using a magnitude scale that deals with longer period seismic waves. This study develops a technique for determining the magnitudes at regional distances (from 70 to 4500 km) using the amplitudes of surface seismic waves of periods of 40 and 80 s. At distances of 70-250 km, the amplitude of the joint group of shear and surface waves is used. For the new magnitudes designated M S(40) and M S(80), experimental calibration curves are constructed using more than 1250 three-component records at 12 stations of the region. The magnitudes are calibrated so as to produce an unbiased estimate of the moment magnitude M w in the critical range 7.5-8.8. The rms error of the single-station estimate M w is around 0.27. At distances below 250 km and M w ≥ 8.3, the estimate of M w obtained by the proposed technique becomes saturated at the level of M w 8.3, which is acceptable for operative analysis because no missed alarms arise. The technique can be used in operational tsunami warning based on seismological data. This can markedly decrease the number of false alarms.

  18. UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Edward H.; ,

    2015-01-01

    With innovations, fresh data, and lessons learned from recent earthquakes, scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, a region under constant threat from potentially damaging events. The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF" (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Overall the results confirm previous findings, but with some significant changes because of model improvements. For example, compared to the previous forecast (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2), the likelihood of moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.5) is lower, whereas that of larger events is higher. This is because of the inclusion of multifault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously. The public-safety implications of this and other model improvements depend on several factors, including site location and type of structure (for example, family dwelling compared to a long-span bridge). Building codes, earthquake insurance products, emergency plans, and other risk-mitigation efforts will be updated accordingly. This model also serves as a reminder that damaging earthquakes are inevitable for California. Fortunately, there are many simple steps residents can take to protect lives and property.

  19. Tweet Earthquake Dispatch (TED)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The USGS is offering earthquake alerts via two twitter accounts: @USGSted and @USGSBigQuakes. On average, @USGSted and @USGSBigQuakes will produce about one tweet...

  20. 1988 Spitak Earthquake Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 1988 Spitak Earthquake database is an extensive collection of geophysical and geological data, maps, charts, images and descriptive text pertaining to the...

  1. Earthquake Damage to Schools

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This set of slides graphically illustrates the potential danger that major earthquakes pose to school structures and to the children and adults who happen to be...

  2. An application of earthquake prediction algorithm M8 in eastern Anatolia at the approach of the 2011 Van earthquake

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Masoud Mojarab; Vladimir Kossobokov; Hossein Memarian; Mehdi Zare

    2015-07-01

    On 23rd October 2011, an M7.3 earthquake near the Turkish city of Van, killed more than 600 people, injured over 4000, and left about 60,000 homeless. It demolished hundreds of buildings and caused great damages to thousand others in Van, Ercis, Muradiye, and Çaldıran. The earthquake’s epicenter is located about 70 km from a preceding M7.3 earthquake that occurred in November 1976 and destroyed several villages near the Turkey–Iran border and killed thousands of people. This study, by means of retrospective application of the M8 algorithm, checks to see if the 2011 Van earthquake could have been predicted. The algorithm is based on pattern recognition of Times of Increased Probability (TIP) of a target earthquake from the transient seismic sequence at lower magnitude ranges in a Circle of Investigation (CI). Specifically, we applied a modified M8 algorithm adjusted to a rather low level of earthquake detection in the region following three different approaches to determine seismic transients. In the first approach, CI centers are distributed on intersections of morphostructural lineaments recognized as prone to magnitude 7+ earthquakes. In the second approach, centers of CIs are distributed on local extremes of the seismic density distribution, and in the third approach, CI centers were distributed uniformly on the nodes of a 1°×1° grid. According to the results of the M8 algorithm application, the 2011 Van earthquake could have been predicted in any of the three approaches. We noted that it is possible to consider the intersection of TIPs instead of their union to improve the certainty of the prediction results. Our study confirms the applicability of a modified version of the M8 algorithm for predicting earthquakes at the Iranian–Turkish plateau, as well as for mitigation of damages in seismic events in which pattern recognition algorithms may play an important role.

  3. Volcanotectonic earthquakes induced by propagating dikes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gudmundsson, Agust

    2016-04-01

    Volcanotectonic earthquakes are of high frequency and mostly generated by slip on faults. During chamber expansion/contraction earthquakes are distribution in the chamber roof. Following magma-chamber rupture and dike injection, however, earthquakes tend to concentrate around the dike and follow its propagation path, resulting in an earthquake swarm characterised by a number of earthquakes of similar magnitudes. I distinguish between two basic processes by which propagating dikes induce earthquakes. One is due to stress concentration in the process zone at the tip of the dike, the other relates to stresses induced in the walls and surrounding rocks on either side of the dike. As to the first process, some earthquakes generated at the dike tip are related to pure extension fracturing as the tip advances and the dike-path forms. Formation of pure extension fractures normally induces non-double couple earthquakes. There is also shear fracturing in the process zone, however, particularly normal faulting, which produces double-couple earthquakes. The second process relates primarily to slip on existing fractures in the host rock induced by the driving pressure of the propagating dike. Such pressures easily reach 5-20 MPa and induce compressive and shear stresses in the adjacent host rock, which already contains numerous fractures (mainly joints) of different attitudes. In piles of lava flows or sedimentary beds the original joints are primarily vertical and horizontal. Similarly, the contacts between the layers/beds are originally horizontal. As the layers/beds become buried, the joints and contacts become gradually tilted so that the joints and contacts become oblique to the horizontal compressive stress induced by a driving pressure of the (vertical) dike. Also, most of the hexagonal (or pentagonal) columnar joints in the lava flows are, from the beginning, oblique to an intrusive sheet of any attitude. Consequently, the joints and contacts function as potential shear

  4. Multi-regional foreshock statistics and the role of small magnitude events in foreshock occurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seif, Stefanie; Mignan, Arnaud; Wiemer, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    In the previous years, there has been growing skepticism regarding the potential of using foreshock occurrence as a mean to predict large earthquakes, since foreshocks generally do not show systematic patterns and/or are often indistinguishable from the normal behavior of seismicity. At the same time, existing studies are limited by the amount of available data: by the number of mainshocks in regional catalogues and by the number of foreshocks (high magnitude of completeness Mc) in global catalogues. In this sense detailed statistics are desirable. We therefore reinvestigate foreshock statistics by systematically examining a large set of foreshock sequences using the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model - which assumes a uniform triggering mechanism of earthquake generation - as a null hypothesis and compare ETAS predictions against observed foreshock data in various regions. Our statistical parameter of interest is the number of foreshocks, which we define as the quantity of earthquakes preceding a mainshock. The analysis for varying cut-off magnitudes (range from 2.0 to 4.0 with 0.5 bins) and mainshock magnitudes (range from 4.5+ to 6+ with 0.5 bins) allows us to detect possible changes in foreshock statistics compared to the null hypothesis. We apply our testing procedure to a large number of regional catalogues (Southern California, Northern California, Italy and many others) and compare against equivalent synthetic catalogs from ETAS, using region-specific parameterizations. We obtain probability distributions for our parameter of interest by combining foreshock counts of various mainshocks and different regions. The comparison of preliminary foreshock statistics suggests a significant difference between the probability distributions for observed and ETAS-generated foreshock seismicity in case of high mainshock magnitudes and low cut-off magnitudes. This result is reinforced when results from multiple regions are combined. The rejection of the null

  5. Engineering geological aspect of Gorkha Earthquake 2015, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Basanta Raj; Andermann, Christoff; Cook, Kristen

    2016-04-01

    Strong shaking by earthquake causes massif landsliding with severe effects on infrastructure and human lives. The distribution of landslides and other hazards are depending on the combination of earthquake and local characteristics which influence the dynamic response of hillslopes. The Himalayas are one of the most active mountain belts with several kilometers of relief and is very prone to catastrophic mass failure. Strong and shallow earthquakes are very common and cause wide spread collapse of hillslopes, increasing the background landslide rate by several magnitude. The Himalaya is facing many small and large earthquakes in the past i.e. earthquakes i.e. Bihar-Nepal earthquake 1934 (Ms 8.2); Large Kangra earthquake of 1905 (Ms 7.8); Gorkha earthquake 2015 (Mw 7.8). The Mw 7.9 Gorkha earthquake has occurred on and around the main Himalayan Thrust with a hypocentral depth of 15 km (GEER 2015) followed by Mw 7.3 aftershock in Kodari causing 8700+ deaths and leaving hundreds of thousands of homeless. Most of the 3000 aftershocks located by National Seismological Center (NSC) within the first 45 days following the Gorkha Earthquake are concentrated in a narrow 40 km-wide band at midcrustal to shallow depth along the strike of the southern slope of the high Himalaya (Adhikari et al. 2015) and the ground shaking was substantially lower in the short-period range than would be expected for and earthquake of this magnitude (Moss et al. 2015). The effect of this earthquake is very unique in affected areas by showing topographic effect, liquefaction and land subsidence. More than 5000 landslides were triggered by this earthquake (Earthquake without Frontiers, 2015). Most of the landslides are shallow and occurred in weathered bedrock and appear to have mobilized primarily as raveling failures, rock slides and rock falls. Majority of landslides are limited to a zone which runs east-west, approximately parallel the lesser and higher Himalaya. There are numerous cracks in

  6. Organization and implementation of medical rescue of mass casualties during earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan-ling ZHANG

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the past century, there were more than 40 earthquakes greater than 7 magnitude occurred worldwide, 10 of which in China, which killed 600 thousand people accounting for 53% of global earthquake deaths. On May 12, 2008, an 8.0-magnitude earthquake occurred in Wenchuan, Sichuan Province, causing 69000 deaths, 18000 missings, and 370000 injuries. Among 10 thousand severe injuries, most were traumatic injuries, 74% of which were fracture. On April 14, 2010, a 7.1-magnitude earthquake occurred in Yushu, Qinghai Province. There were 2698 deaths, 270 missings and 11000 injuries. Among 3100 severe injuries, fracture accounted for 58.4%. After each earthquake, the Chinese Army Medical Services took actions and made quick response according to the law. They sent out elites with efficient command and scientific organization, fully participating in the medical rescue operations. After Wenchuan earthquake, 397 mobile medical service units and 7061 health workers were sent out. A total of 69000 people were treated, and 22000 cases of surgeries were performed. After Yushu earthquake, a total of 25 mobile medical service units and 2025 health workers were sent. They performed 1635 cases of surgeries with a miracle of "zero death" in mass earthquake casualties and altitude diseases in cold highlands. After each earthquake, injuries cured within 1 week accounted for 60% of the total, and patients evacuated accounted for 80% of the total, which owed to the effective first aid in site of Chinese Army Medical Service. They effectively played the role as the main force, making significant contributions for the final victory of earthquake relief. From the practice of medical rescue revelation after the two earthquakes, what Chinese Army Medical Services Services learned are: firstly, the theory of medical relief should be innovated; secondly, military and civilian organizations should be coordinated; thirdly, professional rescue force should be strengthened

  7. Injection-induced earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellsworth, William L

    2013-07-12

    Earthquakes in unusual locations have become an important topic of discussion in both North America and Europe, owing to the concern that industrial activity could cause damaging earthquakes. It has long been understood that earthquakes can be induced by impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations. Injection-induced earthquakes have, in particular, become a focus of discussion as the application of hydraulic fracturing to tight shale formations is enabling the production of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes can be induced as part of the process to stimulate the production from tight shale formations, or by disposal of wastewater associated with stimulation and production. Here, I review recent seismic activity that may be associated with industrial activity, with a focus on the disposal of wastewater by injection in deep wells; assess the scientific understanding of induced earthquakes; and discuss the key scientific challenges to be met for assessing this hazard.

  8. Injection-induced earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellsworth, William L.

    2013-01-01

    Earthquakes in unusual locations have become an important topic of discussion in both North America and Europe, owing to the concern that industrial activity could cause damaging earthquakes. It has long been understood that earthquakes can be induced by impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations. Injection-induced earthquakes have, in particular, become a focus of discussion as the application of hydraulic fracturing to tight shale formations is enabling the production of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes can be induced as part of the process to stimulate the production from tight shale formations, or by disposal of wastewater associated with stimulation and production. Here, I review recent seismic activity that may be associated with industrial activity, with a focus on the disposal of wastewater by injection in deep wells; assess the scientific understanding of induced earthquakes; and discuss the key scientific challenges to be met for assessing this hazard.

  9. Source process of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohuko Japan earthquake

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAO JinLai; WANG WeiMin; YAO ZhenXing

    2011-01-01

    On March 11,2011,a magnitude Mw9.0 earthquake occurred near the east coast of Honshu,Japan,at 13:46 (Beijing time),with an epicenter at 38.321°N,142.369°E and a source depth of 24 km,as determined by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/).A great tsunami then battered the northeast coast of Japan after the earthquake.The wave reached a maximum height of 23.6 m in some areas (http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2011-03-24/082322172726.shtml).The earthquake also resulted in damage to a nuclear power plant in Fukushima that generated nuclear leakage.The earthquake,tsunami and nuclear leakage have brought about huge economic losses and casualties.

  10. Short-Term Forecasting of Taiwanese Earthquakes Using a Universal Model of Fusion-Fission Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Siew Ann; Tan, Teck Liang; Chen, Chien-Chih; Chang, Wu-Lung; Liu, Zheng; Chew, Lock Yue; Sloot, Peter M. A.; Johnson, Neil F.

    2014-01-01

    Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow. PMID:24406467

  11. Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheong, Siew Ann; Tan, Teck Liang; Chen, Chien-Chih; Chang, Wu-Lung; Liu, Zheng; Chew, Lock Yue; Sloot, Peter M A; Johnson, Neil F

    2014-01-10

    Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.

  12. A Study of LFE Magnitudes in Northern Cascadia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostock, M. G.

    2014-12-01

    We have compiled a comprehensive suite of ~250 low-frequency-earthquake (LFE) templates representing spatially distinct tremor sources on or near the plate boundary in northern Cascadia from northern Vancouver Island to southern Washington. Each template is assembled from 100's to 1000's of individual LFEs, representing a total of over 200,000 independent detections spanning a selection of episodic-tremor-and-slip (ETS) events between 2003 and 2013. On the basis of empirical evidence and analytical arguments, these templates can be considered as band-limited, empirical Green's functions excited from shallow-thrust point sources to station locations corresponding to a collection of temporary and permanent network sites. The high fidelity of template match-filtered detections enables precise alignment of individual LFE time series and analysis of LFE amplitudes. Upon correction for geometrical spreading, attenuation, free-surface magnification and radiation pattern, we solve for station-channel amplification factors and LFE magnitudes for all detections corresponding to a given ETS episode. We will present a spatio-temporal analysis of LFE magnitudes including their variability across different ETS events, their dependence in along-dip location, and their expression in different rupture modes, i.e. main front versus rapid tremor reversals of Houston [2011] versus small scale reversals of Rubin and Armbruster [2013].

  13. Earthquake-induced Landslidingand Ground Damage In New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancox, G. T.; Perrin, N. D.; Dellow, G. D.

    A study of landsliding caused by 22 historical earthquakes in New Zealand was completed at the end of 1997 (Hancox et al., 1997). The main aims of that study were to determine: (a) the nature and extent of landsliding and other ground damage (sand boils, subsidence and lateral spreading due to soil liquefaction) caused by historical earthquakes; (b) relationships between landsliding and earthquake magnitude, epicentre, faulting, geology and topography; (c) improved environmental criteria and ground classes for assigning MM intensities and seismic hazard assessments in N.Z. The data and results of the 1997 study have recently been summarised and expanded (Hancox et al., in press), and are described in this paper. Relationships developed from these studies indicate that the minimum magnitude for earthquake-induced landsliding (EIL) in N.Z. is about M 5, with significant landsliding occurring at M 6 or greater. The minimum MM intensity for landsliding is MM6, while the most common intensities for significant landsliding are MM7-8. The intensity threshold for soil liquefaction in New Zealand was found to be MM7 for sand boils, and MM8 for lateral spreading, although such effects may also occur at one intensity level lower in highly susceptible materials. The minimum magnitude for liquefaction phenomena in N.Z. is about M 6, compared to M 5 overseas where highly susceptible soils are probably more widespread. Revised environmental response criteria (landsliding, subsidence, liquefaction-induced sand boils and lateral spreading) have also been established for the New Zealand MM Intensity Scale, and provisional landslide susceptibility Ground Classes developed for assigning MM intensities in areas where there are few buildings. Other new data presented include a size/frequency distribution model for earthquake-induced landslides over the last 150 years and a preliminary EIL Opportunity model for N.Z. The application of EIL data and relationships for seismic hazard

  14. A statistical feature of anomalous seismic activities prior to large shallow earthquakes in Japan revealed by the Pattern Informatics method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Kawamura

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available For revealing the preparatory processes of large inland earthquakes, we systematically applied the Pattern Informatics method (PI method to the earthquake data of Japan. We focused on 12 large earthquakes with magnitudes larger than M = 6.4 (an official magnitude of the Japan Meteorological Agency that occurred at depths shallower than 30 km between 2000 and 2010. We examined the relation between the spatiotemporal locations of such large shallow earthquakes and those of PI hotspots, which correspond to the grid cells of anomalous seismic activities in a designated time span. Based on a statistical test using Molchan's error diagram, we inquired into the existence of precursory anomalous seismic activities of the large earthquakes and, if any, their characteristic time span. The test indicated that the Japanese M ≧ 6.4 inland earthquakes tend to be preceded by anomalous seismic activities of 8-to-10-yr time scales.

  15. Charles Darwin's earthquake reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    As it is the 200th anniversary of Darwin's birth, 2009 has also been marked as 170 years since the publication of his book Journal of Researches. During the voyage Darwin landed at Valdivia and Concepcion, Chile, just before, during, and after a great earthquake, which demolished hundreds of buildings, killing and injuring many people. Land was waved, lifted, and cracked, volcanoes awoke and giant ocean waves attacked the coast. Darwin was the first geologist to observe and describe the effects of the great earthquake during and immediately after. These effects sometimes repeated during severe earthquakes; but great earthquakes, like Chile 1835, and giant earthquakes, like Chile 1960, are rare and remain completely unpredictable. This is one of the few areas of science, where experts remain largely in the dark. Darwin suggested that the effects were a result of ‘ …the rending of strata, at a point not very deep below the surface of the earth…' and ‘…when the crust yields to the tension, caused by its gradual elevation, there is a jar at the moment of rupture, and a greater movement...'. Darwin formulated big ideas about the earth evolution and its dynamics. These ideas set the tone for the tectonic plate theory to come. However, the plate tectonics does not completely explain why earthquakes occur within plates. Darwin emphasised that there are different kinds of earthquakes ‘...I confine the foregoing observations to the earthquakes on the coast of South America, or to similar ones, which seem generally to have been accompanied by elevation of the land. But, as we know that subsidence has gone on in other quarters of the world, fissures must there have been formed, and therefore earthquakes...' (we cite the Darwin's sentences following researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). These thoughts agree with results of the last publications (see Nature 461, 870-872; 636-639 and 462, 42-43; 87-89). About 200 years ago Darwin gave oneself airs by the

  16. Complex networks of earthquakes and aftershocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Baiesi

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We invoke a metric to quantify the correlation between any two earthquakes. This provides a simple and straightforward alternative to using space-time windows to detect aftershock sequences and obviates the need to distinguish main shocks from aftershocks. Directed networks of earthquakes are constructed by placing a link, directed from the past to the future, between pairs of events that are strongly correlated. Each link has a weight giving the relative strength of correlation such that the sum over the incoming links to any node equals unity for aftershocks, or zero if the event had no correlated predecessors. A correlation threshold is set to drastically reduce the size of the data set without losing significant information. Events can be aftershocks of many previous events, and also generate many aftershocks. The probability distribution for the number of incoming and outgoing links are both scale free, and the networks are highly clustered. The Omori law holds for aftershock rates up to a decorrelation time that scales with the magnitude, m, of the initiating shock as tcutoff~10β m with β~-3/4. Another scaling law relates distances between earthquakes and their aftershocks to the magnitude of the initiating shock. Our results are inconsistent with the hypothesis of finite aftershock zones. We also find evidence that seismicity is dominantly triggered by small earthquakes. Our approach, using concepts from the modern theory of complex networks, together with a metric to estimate correlations, opens up new avenues of research, as well as new tools to understand seismicity.

  17. An interdisciplinary approach for earthquake modelling and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, P.; Zhuang, J.; Hattori, K.; Ogata, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake is one of the most serious disasters, which may cause heavy casualties and economic losses. Especially in the past two decades, huge/mega earthquakes have hit many countries. Effective earthquake forecasting (including time, location, and magnitude) becomes extremely important and urgent. To date, various heuristically derived algorithms have been developed for forecasting earthquakes. Generally, they can be classified into two types: catalog-based approaches and non-catalog-based approaches. Thanks to the rapid development of statistical seismology in the past 30 years, now we are able to evaluate the performances of these earthquake forecast approaches quantitatively. Although a certain amount of precursory information is available in both earthquake catalogs and non-catalog observations, the earthquake forecast is still far from satisfactory. In most case, the precursory phenomena were studied individually. An earthquake model that combines self-exciting and mutually exciting elements was developed by Ogata and Utsu from the Hawkes process. The core idea of this combined model is that the status of the event at present is controlled by the event itself (self-exciting) and all the external factors (mutually exciting) in the past. In essence, the conditional intensity function is a time-varying Poisson process with rate λ(t), which is composed of the background rate, the self-exciting term (the information from past seismic events), and the external excitation term (the information from past non-seismic observations). This model shows us a way to integrate the catalog-based forecast and non-catalog-based forecast. Against this background, we are trying to develop a new earthquake forecast model which combines catalog-based and non-catalog-based approaches.

  18. Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, E.H.; Dawson, T.E.; Felzer, K.R.; Frankel, A.D.; Gupta, V.; Jordan, T.H.; Parsons, T.; Petersen, M.D.; Stein, R.S.; Weldon, R.J.; Wills, C.J.

    2009-01-01

    The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007) presents the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2). This model comprises a time-independent (Poisson-process) earthquake rate model, developed jointly with the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program and a time-dependent earthquake-probability model, based on recent earthquake rates and stress-renewal statistics conditioned on the date of last event. The models were developed from updated statewide earthquake catalogs and fault deformation databases using a uniform methodology across all regions and implemented in the modular, extensible Open Seismic Hazard Analysis framework. The rate model satisfies integrating measures of deformation across the plate-boundary zone and is consistent with historical seismicity data. An overprediction of earthquake rates found at intermediate magnitudes (6.5 ??? M ???7.0) in previous models has been reduced to within the 95% confidence bounds of the historical earthquake catalog. A logic tree with 480 branches represents the epistemic uncertainties of the full time-dependent model. The mean UCERF 2 time-dependent probability of one or more M ???6.7 earthquakes in the California region during the next 30 yr is 99.7%; this probability decreases to 46% for M ???7.5 and to 4.5% for M ???8.0. These probabilities do not include the Cascadia subduction zone, largely north of California, for which the estimated 30 yr, M ???8.0 time-dependent probability is 10%. The M ???6.7 probabilities on major strike-slip faults are consistent with the WGCEP (2003) study in the San Francisco Bay Area and the WGCEP (1995) study in southern California, except for significantly lower estimates along the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, owing to provisions for larger multisegment ruptures. Important model limitations are discussed.

  19. Calculation of the Rate of M>6.5 Earthquakes for California and Adjacent Portions of Nevada and Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, Arthur; Mueller, Charles

    2008-01-01

    One of the key issues in the development of an earthquake recurrence model for California and adjacent portions of Nevada and Mexico is the comparison of the predicted rates of earthquakes with the observed rates. Therefore, it is important to make an accurate determination of the observed rate of M>6.5 earthquakes in California and the adjacent region. We have developed a procedure to calculate observed earthquake rates from an earthquake catalog, accounting for magnitude uncertainty and magnitude rounding. We present a Bayesian method that corrects for the effect of the magnitude uncertainty in calculating the observed rates. Our recommended determination of the observed rate of M>6.5 in this region is 0.246 ? 0.085 (for two sigma) per year, although this rate is likely to be underestimated because of catalog incompleteness and this uncertainty estimate does not include all sources of uncertainty.

  20. From earthquake intensities to earthquake sources: extending the contribution of historical seismology to seismotectonic studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Valensise

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The epicentral locations and magnitudes of the events reported in the Catalogue of Strong Italian Earthquakes are obtained from intensity data through a standardized and established algorithm. However, we contend that the dense and homogeneously collected data sets presented in this catalogue can also be used to assess the location, physical dimensions and orientation of the earthquake source on purely historical grounds. The method we describe is of special value for older earthquakes and for all events that fall in areas where the understanding of faulting and tectonics is limited. At the end of the calculations the seismic source is represented as an oriented "rectangle", the length and width of which are obtained from moment magnitude through empirical relationships. This rectangle is meant to represent the actual surface projection of the seismogenic fault or, at least, the projection of the portion of the Earth crust where a given seismic source is likely to be located. Sources derived through this procedure can then be juxtaposed to sources derived from instrumental and geological data for constructing fault segmentation and earthquake recurrence models and for highlighting linear gaps in the global seismic release. To test the method we applied it systematically to all M > 5.5 earthquakes that occurred in the Central and Southern Apennines in the past four centuries. The results are encouraging and compare well with existing instrumental, direct geological and geodynamic evidence. The method is quite stable for different choices of the algorithm parameters and provides elongation directions which in most cases can be shown to be statistically significant. The resulting pattern of source locations and orientations is homogeneous, showing a consistent Apennines-parallel trend that agrees well with the NE-SW tectonic extension style of the central and southern portions of the Italian peninsula.

  1. Earthquake Drill using the Earthquake Early Warning System at an Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, Satoko; Yazaki, Yoshiaki; Koketsu, Kazuki

    2010-05-01

    Japan frequently suffers from many kinds of disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons, floods, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. On average, we lose about 120 people a year due to natural hazards in this decade. Above all, earthquakes are noteworthy, since it may kill thousands of people in a moment like in Kobe in 1995. People know that we may have "a big one" some day as long as we live on this land and that what to do; retrofit houses, appliance heavy furniture to walls, add latches to kitchen cabinets, and prepare emergency packs. Yet most of them do not take the action, and result in the loss of many lives. It is only the victims that learn something from the earthquake, and it has never become the lore of the nations. One of the most essential ways to reduce the damage is to educate the general public to be able to make the sound decision on what to do at the moment when an earthquake hits. This will require the knowledge of the backgrounds of the on-going phenomenon. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), therefore, offered for public subscription to choose several model areas to adopt scientific education to the local elementary schools. This presentation is the report of a year and half courses that we had at the model elementary school in Tokyo Metropolitan Area. The tectonic setting of this area is very complicated; there are the Pacific and Philippine Sea plates subducting beneath the North America and the Eurasia plates. The subduction of the Philippine Sea plate causes mega-thrust earthquakes such as the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M 7.9) making 105,000 fatalities. A magnitude 7 or greater earthquake beneath this area is recently evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years. This is of immediate concern for the devastating loss of life and property because the Tokyo urban region now has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40 % of the nation's activities, which may cause great global

  2. Temporal and spatial variations in the magnitude of completeness for homogenized moment magnitude catalogue for northeast India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ranjit Das; H R Wason; M L Sharma

    2012-02-01

    Northeast India region is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. Events data for the period 1897–2010, used in this study has been largely compiled from global ISC, NEIC and GCMT databases. Historical seismicity catalogue of Gupta et al (1986) and some events data from the bulletins of India Meteorological Department are also used. Orthogonal regression relations for conversion of body and surface wave magnitudes to w,HRVD based on events data for the period 1978–2006 have been derived. An Orthogonal Standard Regression (OSR) relationship has also been obtained for scaling of intensity estimates to w,NEIC using 126 global intensity events with intensity VI or greater during the period 1975–2010. Magnitude of completeness and Gutenberg–Richter (GR) recurrence parameter values have been determined for the declustered homogenized catalogue pertaining to four different time periods namely, 1897–1963, 1964–1990, 1964–2000 and 1964–2010. The c and `' values are observed to decrease and increase, respectively, with addition of newer data with time. The study region has been subdivided into nine seismogenic zones keeping in view the spatial variations in earthquake occurrence and prevalent tectonics. c, `' and `' values have been estimated with respect to each zone, and the variations in the values of these parameters have been analysed.

  3. Food, water, and fault lines: Remote sensing opportunities for earthquake-response management of agricultural water

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez, Jenna, E-mail: jmmartin@ucdavis.edu; Ustin, Susan; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel; O' Geen, Anthony Toby

    2016-09-15

    Earthquakes often cause destructive and unpredictable changes that can affect local hydrology (e.g. groundwater elevation or reduction) and thus disrupt land uses and human activities. Prolific agricultural regions overlie seismically active areas, emphasizing the importance to improve our understanding and monitoring of hydrologic and agricultural systems following a seismic event. A thorough data collection is necessary for adequate post-earthquake crop management response; however, the large spatial extent of earthquake's impact makes challenging the collection of robust data sets for identifying locations and magnitude of these impacts. Observing hydrologic responses to earthquakes is not a novel concept, yet there is a lack of methods and tools for assessing earthquake's impacts upon the regional hydrology and agricultural systems. The objective of this paper is to describe how remote sensing imagery, methods and tools allow detecting crop responses and damage incurred after earthquakes because a change in the regional hydrology. Many remote sensing datasets are long archived with extensive coverage and with well-documented methods to assess plant-water relations. We thus connect remote sensing of