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Sample records for earthquake hazard assessment

  1. Earthquake hazard assessment and small earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, L.

    1987-01-01

    The significance of small earthquakes and their treatment in nuclear power plant seismic hazard assessment is an issue which has received increased attention over the past few years. In probabilistic studies, sensitivity studies showed that the choice of the lower bound magnitude used in hazard calculations can have a larger than expected effect on the calculated hazard. Of particular interest is the fact that some of the difference in seismic hazard calculations between the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) studies can be attributed to this choice. The LLNL study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 3.75 while the EPRI study assumed a lower bound magnitude of 5.0. The magnitudes used were assumed to be body wave magnitudes or their equivalents. In deterministic studies recent ground motion recordings of small to moderate earthquakes at or near nuclear power plants have shown that the high frequencies of design response spectra may be exceeded. These exceedances became important issues in the licensing of the Summer and Perry nuclear power plants. At various times in the past particular concerns have been raised with respect to the hazard and damage potential of small to moderate earthquakes occurring at very shallow depths. In this paper a closer look is taken at these issues. Emphasis is given to the impact of lower bound magnitude on probabilistic hazard calculations and the historical record of damage from small to moderate earthquakes. Limited recommendations are made as to how these issues should be viewed

  2. ASSESSMENT OF EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS ON WASTE LANDFILLS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zania, Varvara; Tsompanakis, Yiannis; Psarropoulos, Prodromos

    Earthquake hazards may arise as a result of: (a) transient ground deformation, which is induced due to seismic wave propagation, and (b) permanent ground deformation, which is caused by abrupt fault dislocation. Since the adequate performance of waste landfills after an earthquake is of outmost...... importance, the current study examines the impact of both types of earthquake hazards by performing efficient finite-element analyses. These took also into account the potential slip displacement development along the geosynthetic interfaces of the composite base liner. At first, the development of permanent...

  3. Earthquake Hazard Assessment: an Independent Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2016-04-01

    Seismic hazard assessment (SHA), from term-less (probabilistic PSHA or deterministic DSHA) to time-dependent (t-DASH) including short-term earthquake forecast/prediction (StEF), is not an easy task that implies a delicate application of statistics to data of limited size and different accuracy. Regretfully, in many cases of SHA, t-DASH, and StEF, the claims of a high potential and efficiency of the methodology are based on a flawed application of statistics and hardly suitable for communication to decision makers. The necessity and possibility of applying the modified tools of Earthquake Prediction Strategies, in particular, the Error Diagram, introduced by G.M. Molchan in early 1990ies for evaluation of SHA, and the Seismic Roulette null-hypothesis as a measure of the alerted space, is evident, and such a testing must be done in advance claiming hazardous areas and/or times. The set of errors, i.e. the rates of failure and of the alerted space-time volume, compared to those obtained in the same number of random guess trials permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of the parameters in regard to specified cost-benefit functions. These and other information obtained in such a testing may supply us with a realistic estimate of confidence in SHA results and related recommendations on the level of risks for decision making in regard to engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. These basics of SHA evaluation are exemplified with a few cases of misleading "seismic hazard maps", "precursors", and "forecast/prediction methods".

  4. Deterministic Earthquake Hazard Assessment by Public Agencies in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mualchin, L.

    2005-12-01

    Even in its short recorded history, California has experienced a number of damaging earthquakes that have resulted in new codes and other legislation for public safety. In particular, the 1971 San Fernando earthquake produced some of the most lasting results such as the Hospital Safety Act, the Strong Motion Instrumentation Program, the Alquist-Priolo Special Studies Zone Act, and the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans') fault-based deterministic seismic hazard (DSH) map. The latter product provides values for earthquake ground motions based on Maximum Credible Earthquakes (MCEs), defined as the largest earthquakes that can reasonably be expected on faults in the current tectonic regime. For surface fault rupture displacement hazards, detailed study of the same faults apply. Originally, hospital, dam, and other critical facilities used seismic design criteria based on deterministic seismic hazard analyses (DSHA). However, probabilistic methods grew and took hold by introducing earthquake design criteria based on time factors and quantifying "uncertainties", by procedures such as logic trees. These probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) ignored the DSH approach. Some agencies were influenced to adopt only the PSHA method. However, deficiencies in the PSHA method are becoming recognized, and the use of the method is now becoming a focus of strong debate. Caltrans is in the process of producing the fourth edition of its DSH map. The reason for preferring the DSH method is that Caltrans believes it is more realistic than the probabilistic method for assessing earthquake hazards that may affect critical facilities, and is the best available method for insuring public safety. Its time-invariant values help to produce robust design criteria that are soundly based on physical evidence. And it is the method for which there is the least opportunity for unwelcome surprises.

  5. Are seismic hazard assessment errors and earthquake surprises unavoidable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2013-04-01

    Why earthquake occurrences bring us so many surprises? The answer seems evident if we review the relationships that are commonly used to assess seismic hazard. The time-span of physically reliable Seismic History is yet a small portion of a rupture recurrence cycle at an earthquake-prone site, which makes premature any kind of reliable probabilistic statements about narrowly localized seismic hazard. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in the early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when testing statistical significance is applied. Seismic events, including mega-earthquakes, cluster displaying behaviors that are far from independent or periodic. Their distribution in space is possibly fractal, definitely, far from uniform even in a single segment of a fault zone. Such a situation contradicts generally accepted assumptions used for analytically tractable or computer simulations and complicates design of reliable methodologies for realistic earthquake hazard assessment, as well as search and definition of precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. As a result, the conclusions drawn from such simulations and analyses can MISLEAD TO SCIENTIFICALLY GROUNDLESS APPLICATION, which is unwise and extremely dangerous in assessing expected societal risks and losses. For example, a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration estimates with those related to actual strong earthquakes, unfortunately, discloses gross inadequacy of this "probabilistic" product, which appears UNACCEPTABLE FOR ANY KIND OF RESPONSIBLE SEISMIC RISK EVALUATION AND KNOWLEDGEABLE DISASTER PREVENTION. The self-evident shortcomings and failures of GSHAP appeals to all earthquake scientists and engineers for an urgent revision of the global seismic hazard maps from the first principles including background methodologies involved, such that there becomes: (a) a

  6. Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Altai-Sayan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

    2017-12-01

    We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum credible magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g. peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity etc.). After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory, etc.). This, USLE based, methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment is applied to the territory of Altai-Sayan Region, of Russia. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 15-17-30020.

  7. Stability assessment of structures under earthquake hazard through GRID technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prieto Castrillo, F.; Boton Fernandez, M.

    2009-04-01

    This work presents a GRID framework to estimate the vulnerability of structures under earthquake hazard. The tool has been designed to cover the needs of a typical earthquake engineering stability analysis; preparation of input data (pre-processing), response computation and stability analysis (post-processing). In order to validate the application over GRID, a simplified model of structure under artificially generated earthquake records has been implemented. To achieve this goal, the proposed scheme exploits the GRID technology and its main advantages (parallel intensive computing, huge storage capacity and collaboration analysis among institutions) through intensive interaction among the GRID elements (Computing Element, Storage Element, LHC File Catalogue, federated database etc.) The dynamical model is described by a set of ordinary differential equations (ODE's) and by a set of parameters. Both elements, along with the integration engine, are encapsulated into Java classes. With this high level design, subsequent improvements/changes of the model can be addressed with little effort. In the procedure, an earthquake record database is prepared and stored (pre-processing) in the GRID Storage Element (SE). The Metadata of these records is also stored in the GRID federated database. This Metadata contains both relevant information about the earthquake (as it is usual in a seismic repository) and also the Logical File Name (LFN) of the record for its later retrieval. Then, from the available set of accelerograms in the SE, the user can specify a range of earthquake parameters to carry out a dynamic analysis. This way, a GRID job is created for each selected accelerogram in the database. At the GRID Computing Element (CE), displacements are then obtained by numerical integration of the ODE's over time. The resulting response for that configuration is stored in the GRID Storage Element (SE) and the maximum structure displacement is computed. Then, the corresponding

  8. Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquakes characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepulveda, I.; Liu, P. L. F.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Pritchard, M. E.

    2017-12-01

    The uncertainty quantification of tsunami assessments due to uncertain earthquake characteristics faces important challenges. First, the generated earthquake samples must be consistent with the properties observed in past events. Second, it must adopt an uncertainty propagation method to determine tsunami uncertainties with a feasible computational cost. In this study we propose a new methodology, which improves the existing tsunami uncertainty assessment methods. The methodology considers two uncertain earthquake characteristics, the slip distribution and location. First, the methodology considers the generation of consistent earthquake slip samples by means of a Karhunen Loeve (K-L) expansion and a translation process (Grigoriu, 2012), applicable to any non-rectangular rupture area and marginal probability distribution. The K-L expansion was recently applied by Le Veque et al. (2016). We have extended the methodology by analyzing accuracy criteria in terms of the tsunami initial conditions. Furthermore, and unlike this reference, we preserve the original probability properties of the slip distribution, by avoiding post sampling treatments such as earthquake slip scaling. Our approach is analyzed and justified in the framework of the present study. Second, the methodology uses a Stochastic Reduced Order model (SROM) (Grigoriu, 2009) instead of a classic Monte Carlo simulation, which reduces the computational cost of the uncertainty propagation. The methodology is applied on a real case. We study tsunamis generated at the site of the 2014 Chilean earthquake. We generate earthquake samples with expected magnitude Mw 8. We first demonstrate that the stochastic approach of our study generates consistent earthquake samples with respect to the target probability laws. We also show that the results obtained from SROM are more accurate than classic Monte Carlo simulations. We finally validate the methodology by comparing the simulated tsunamis and the tsunami records for

  9. Assessing Lay Understanding of Common Presentations of Earthquake Hazard Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, K. J.; Krantz, D. H.

    2010-12-01

    The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) includes, in its introduction to earthquake rupture forecast maps, the assertion that "In daily living, people are used to making decisions based on probabilities -- from the flip of a coin (50% probability of heads) to weather forecasts (such as a 30% chance of rain) to the annual chance of being killed by lightning (about 0.0003%)." [3] However, psychology research identifies a large gap between lay and expert perception of risk for various hazards [2], and cognitive psychologists have shown in numerous studies [1,4-6] that people neglect, distort, misjudge, or misuse probabilities, even when given strong guidelines about the meaning of numerical or verbally stated probabilities [7]. The gap between lay and expert use of probability needs to be recognized more clearly by scientific organizations such as WGCEP. This study undertakes to determine how the lay public interprets earthquake hazard information, as presented in graphical map form by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF), compiled by the WGCEP and other bodies including the USGS and CGS. It also explores alternate ways of presenting hazard data, to determine which presentation format most effectively translates information from scientists to public. Participants both from California and from elsewhere in the United States are included, to determine whether familiarity -- either with the experience of an earthquake, or with the geography of the forecast area -- affects people's ability to interpret an earthquake hazards map. We hope that the comparisons between the interpretations by scientific experts and by different groups of laypeople will both enhance theoretical understanding of factors that affect information transmission and assist bodies such as the WGCEP in their laudable attempts to help people prepare themselves and their communities for possible natural hazards. [1] Kahneman, D & Tversky, A (1979). Prospect

  10. Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    mouloud, Hamidatou

    2016-04-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

  11. Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Babayev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

  12. Long Aftershock Sequences within Continents and Implications for Earthquake Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S. A.; Liu, M.

    2014-12-01

    Recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China has prompted concern about a repetition of the 1976 M7.8 earthquake that destroyed the city, killing more than 242,000 people. However, the decay of seismicity there implies that the recent earthquakes are probably aftershocks of the 1976 event. This 37-year sequence is an example of the phenomenon that aftershock sequences within continents are often significantly longer than the typical 10 years at plate boundaries. The long sequence of aftershocks in continents is consistent with a simple friction-based model predicting that the length of aftershock sequences varies inversely with the rate at which faults are loaded. Hence the slowly-deforming continents tend to have aftershock sequences significantly longer than at rapidly-loaded plate boundaries. This effect has two consequences for hazard assessment. First, within the heavily populated continents that are typically within plate interiors, assessments of earthquake hazards rely significantly on the assumption that the locations of small earthquakes shown by the short historical record reflect continuing deformation that will cause future large earthquakes. This assumption would lead to overestimation of the hazard in presently active areas and underestimation elsewhere, if some of these small events are aftershocks. Second, successful attempts to remove aftershocks from catalogs used for hazard assessment would underestimate the hazard, because much of the hazard is due to the aftershocks, and the declustering algorithms implicitly assume short aftershock sequences and thus do not remove long-duration ones.

  13. Assessment of earthquake hazard in the Tokyo area, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rikitake, T.

    1991-12-01

    The probability of occurrence of an inland earthquake originating beneath the Tokyo area is evaluated for a 10-year period from 1991. On the basis of an earthquake catalogue containing some 40 earthquakes, which caused some damage to Edo (now Tokyo) over a period of 400 years, the parameters of the Weibull and lognormal probability distributions applied to recurrence interval statistics are estimated. With these parameters, it is concluded that an earthquake directly beneath the capital, the magnitude of which is equal to or greater than 6.0, occurs with a probability of 0.40 for the period in question. When the magnitude threshold is assumed as 6.4 and 7.0, the probabilities become 0.17 and 0.049, respectively. These probability evaluations are extended to those for the seismic intensity at typical sites in the area, although no accurate evaluation is possible because the exact focal depths of historical earthquakes are not known. On the assumption that these earthquakes occur near the upper surface of the down-going Philippine Sea plate, however, a typical depth of 30 km or so is suggested. Should an earthquake having a mean magnitude of 6.4, say, and at a mean location of past earthquakes occur, the probability of seismic intensity at typical sites in the capital area exceeding 5 on the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) scale would amount to 0.17. The possibility of having a highly damaging earthquake of intensity 6 on the JMA scale also cannot be ruled out, judging from earthquake disasters in the past, although the probability does become lower. To summarize, it may be said that the probability of Japan's capital area being hit by a damaging earthquake in the foreseeable future is not particularly low.

  14. Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, Şeyda; Bayrak, Erdem; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2016-04-01

    In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

  15. Comparision of the different probability distributions for earthquake hazard assessment in the North Anatolian Fault Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr; Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com [Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı (Turkey)

    2016-04-18

    In this study we examined and compared the three different probabilistic distribution methods for determining the best suitable model in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. We analyzed a reliable homogeneous earthquake catalogue between a time period 1900-2015 for magnitude M ≥ 6.0 and estimated the probabilistic seismic hazard in the North Anatolian Fault zone (39°-41° N 30°-40° E) using three distribution methods namely Weibull distribution, Frechet distribution and three-parameter Weibull distribution. The distribution parameters suitability was evaluated Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) goodness-of-fit test. We also compared the estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probabilities of occurrence of earthquakes for different elapsed time using these three distribution methods. We used Easyfit and Matlab software to calculate these distribution parameters and plotted the conditional probability curves. We concluded that the Weibull distribution method was the most suitable than other distribution methods in this region.

  16. History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mualchin, Lalliana

    2011-03-01

    Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published

  17. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments of Sabah, east Malaysia: accounting for local earthquake activity near Ranau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Amin E.; Abir, Ismail A.; Ginsos, Hanteh; Abdel Hafiez, Hesham E.; Khan, Sohail

    2018-02-01

    Sabah state in eastern Malaysia, unlike most of the other Malaysian states, is characterized by common seismological activity; generally an earthquake of moderate magnitude is experienced at an interval of roughly every 20 years, originating mainly from two major sources, either a local source (e.g. Ranau and Lahad Dato) or a regional source (e.g. Kalimantan and South Philippines subductions). The seismicity map of Sabah shows the presence of two zones of distinctive seismicity, these zones are near Ranau (near Kota Kinabalu) and Lahad Datu in the southeast of Sabah. The seismicity record of Ranau begins in 1991, according to the international seismicity bulletins (e.g. United States Geological Survey and the International Seismological Center), and this short record is not sufficient for seismic source characterization. Fortunately, active Quaternary fault systems are delineated in the area. Henceforth, the seismicity of the area is thus determined as line sources referring to these faults. Two main fault systems are believed to be the source of such activities; namely, the Mensaban fault zone and the Crocker fault zone in addition to some other faults in their vicinity. Seismic hazard assessments became a very important and needed study for the extensive developing projects in Sabah especially with the presence of earthquake activities. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are adopted for the present work since it can provide the probability of various ground motion levels during expected from future large earthquakes. The output results are presented in terms of spectral acceleration curves and uniform hazard curves for periods of 500, 1000 and 2500 years. Since this is the first time that a complete hazard study has been done for the area, the output will be a base and standard for any future strategic plans in the area.

  18. Seismic hazard assessment and pattern recognition of earthquake prone areas in the Po Plain (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorshkov, Alexander; Peresan, Antonella; Soloviev, Alexander; Panza, Giuliano F.

    2014-05-01

    A systematic and quantitative assessment, capable of providing first-order consistent information about the sites where large earthquakes may occur, is crucial for the knowledgeable seismic hazard evaluation. The methodology for the pattern recognition of areas prone to large earthquakes is based on the morphostructural zoning method (MSZ), which employs topographic data and present-day tectonic structures for the mapping of earthquake-controlling structures (i.e. the nodes formed around lineaments intersections) and does not require the knowledge about past seismicity. The nodes are assumed to be characterized by a uniform set of topographic, geologic, and geophysical parameters; on the basis of such parameters the pattern recognition algorithm defines a classification rule to discriminate seismogenic and non-seismogenic nodes. This methodology has been successfully applied since the early 1970s in a number of regions worldwide, including California, where it permitted the identification of areas that have been subsequently struck by strong events and that previously were not considered prone to strong earthquakes. Recent studies on the Iberian Peninsula and the Rhone Valley, have demonstrated the applicability of MSZ to flat basins, with a relatively flat topography. In this study, the analysis is applied to the Po Plain (Northern Italy), an area characterized by a flat topography, to allow for the systematic identification of the nodes prone to earthquakes with magnitude larger or equal to M=5.0. The MSZ method differs from the standard morphostructural analysis where the term "lineament" is used to define the complex of alignments detectable on topographic maps or on satellite images. According to that definition the lineament is locally defined and the existence of the lineament does not depend on the surrounding areas. In MSZ, the primary element is the block - a relatively homogeneous area - while the lineament is a secondary element of the morphostructure

  19. Assessing the Utility of and Improving USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomberg, J. S.; Scott, M.; Weaver, C. S.; Sherrod, B. L.; Bailey, D.; Gibbons, D.

    2010-12-01

    A major focus of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) has been the development and implementation of products and information meant to improve earthquake hazard assessment, mitigation and response for a myriad of users. Many of these products rely on the data and efforts of the EHP and its partner scientists who are building the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS). We report on a project meant to assess the utility of many of these products and information, conducted collaboratively by EHP scientists and Pierce County Department of Emergency Management staff. We have conducted focus group listening sessions with members of the engineering, business, medical, media, risk management, and emergency response communities as well as participated in the planning and implementation of earthquake exercises in the Pacific Northwest. Thus far we have learned that EHP and ANSS products satisfy many of the needs of engineers and some planners, and information is widely used by media and the general public. However, some important communities do not use these products despite their intended application for their purposes, particularly county and local emergency management and business communities. We have learned that products need to convey more clearly the impact of earthquakes, in everyday terms. Users also want products (e.g. maps, forecasts, etc.) that can be incorporated into tools and systems they use regularly. Rather than simply building products and posting them on websites, products need to be actively marketed and training provided. We suggest that engaging users prior to and during product development will enhance their usage and effectiveness.

  20. Assessment of earthquake-induced tsunami hazard at a power plant site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, A.K.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the tsunami hazard due to submarine earthquakes at a power plant site on the east coast of India. The paper considers various sources of earthquakes from the tectonic information, and records of past earthquakes and tsunamis. Magnitude-frequency relationship for earthquake occurrence rate and a simplified model for tsunami run-up height as a function of earthquake magnitude and the distance between the source and site have been developed. Finally, considering equal likelihood of generation of earthquakes anywhere on each of the faults, the tsunami hazard has been evaluated and presented as a relationship between tsunami height and its mean recurrence interval (MRI). Probability of exceedence of a certain wave height in a given period of time is also presented. These studies will be helpful in making an estimate of the tsunami-induced flooding potential at the site

  1. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan-Tibetan Region from Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, M. Moklesur; Bai, Ling; Khan, Nangyal Ghani; Li, Guohui

    2018-02-01

    The Himalayan-Tibetan region has a long history of devastating earthquakes with wide-spread casualties and socio-economic damages. Here, we conduct the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by incorporating the incomplete historical earthquake records along with the instrumental earthquake catalogs for the Himalayan-Tibetan region. Historical earthquake records back to more than 1000 years ago and an updated, homogenized and declustered instrumental earthquake catalog since 1906 are utilized. The essential seismicity parameters, namely, the mean seismicity rate γ, the Gutenberg-Richter b value, and the maximum expected magnitude M max are estimated using the maximum likelihood algorithm assuming the incompleteness of the catalog. To compute the hazard value, three seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources) and two sets of ground motion prediction equations are combined by means of a logic tree on accounting the epistemic uncertainties. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are predicted for 2 and 10% probabilities of exceedance over 50 years assuming bedrock condition. The resulting PGA and SA maps show a significant spatio-temporal variation in the hazard values. In general, hazard value is found to be much higher than the previous studies for regions, where great earthquakes have actually occurred. The use of the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs in combination of multiple seismogenic source models provides better seismic hazard constraints for the Himalayan-Tibetan region.

  2. Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr, Sedigheh; Zamani, Ahmad; Razavipour, Fatemeh; Boostani, Reza

    2017-08-01

    Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.

  3. Historical Earthquake Records and their Application for Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment in Tianshui, Gansu Province, Northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, L.; Wang, Z.

    2009-12-01

    Tianshui, located in southeastern Gansu Province of northwestern China, was a center of early Chinese civilization and the birthplace of “Ba Gua” or “eight symbols.” It has a long history of earthquakes and many strong and large earthquakes have occurred there. Earthquakes, ancient or modern ones, have not only been well recorded, but also left marks on many historical landmarks and buildings that can still be seen today. For example, major damage by the 1654 Tianshui earthquake (M8.0) and some minor damage by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake can be seen in the Maiji Grotto. A new effort to investigate and reexamine the historical macroseismic records is under way, with the aim of better seismic hazard and risk assessment for the Tianshui area. Seismic hazard and risk will be assessed for the Tianshui area using the 2,500 years of intensity observations (records). The results will be used by local governments and communities for developing more effective mitigation policies in the aftermath of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The results will also be compared to hazard and risk assessments derived from other approaches, such as probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analyses.

  4. Earthquake risk reduction in the United States: An assessment of selected user needs and recommendations for the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    This Assessment was conducted to improve the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) by providing NEHRP agencies with information that supports their user-oriented setting of crosscutting priorities in the NEHRP strategic planning process. The primary objective of this Assessment was to take a ``snapshot`` evaluation of the needs of selected users throughout the major program elements of NEHRP. Secondary objectives were to conduct an assessment of the knowledge that exists (or is being developed by NEHRP) to support earthquake risk reduction, and to begin a process of evaluating how NEHRP is meeting user needs. An identification of NEHRP`s strengths also resulted from the effort, since those strengths demonstrate successful methods that may be useful to NEHRP in the future. These strengths are identified in the text, and many of them represent important achievements since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act was passed in 1977.

  5. Earthquake Hazard Analysis Methods: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, A. M.; Fakhrurrozi, A.

    2018-02-01

    One of natural disasters that have significantly impacted on risks and damage is an earthquake. World countries such as China, Japan, and Indonesia are countries located on the active movement of continental plates with more frequent earthquake occurrence compared to other countries. Several methods of earthquake hazard analysis have been done, for example by analyzing seismic zone and earthquake hazard micro-zonation, by using Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (N-DSHA) method, and by using Remote Sensing. In its application, it is necessary to review the effectiveness of each technique in advance. Considering the efficiency of time and the accuracy of data, remote sensing is used as a reference to the assess earthquake hazard accurately and quickly as it only takes a limited time required in the right decision-making shortly after the disaster. Exposed areas and possibly vulnerable areas due to earthquake hazards can be easily analyzed using remote sensing. Technological developments in remote sensing such as GeoEye-1 provide added value and excellence in the use of remote sensing as one of the methods in the assessment of earthquake risk and damage. Furthermore, the use of this technique is expected to be considered in designing policies for disaster management in particular and can reduce the risk of natural disasters such as earthquakes in Indonesia.

  6. Earthquake hazard evaluation for Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruettener, E.

    1995-01-01

    Earthquake hazard analysis is of considerable importance for Switzerland, a country with moderate seismic activity but high economic values at risk. The evaluation of earthquake hazard, i.e. the determination of return periods versus ground motion parameters, requires a description of earthquake occurrences in space and time. In this study the seismic hazard for major cities in Switzerland is determined. The seismic hazard analysis is based on historic earthquake records as well as instrumental data. The historic earthquake data show considerable uncertainties concerning epicenter location and epicentral intensity. A specific concept is required, therefore, which permits the description of the uncertainties of each individual earthquake. This is achieved by probability distributions for earthquake size and location. Historical considerations, which indicate changes in public earthquake awareness at various times (mainly due to large historical earthquakes), as well as statistical tests have been used to identify time periods of complete earthquake reporting as a function of intensity. As a result, the catalog is judged to be complete since 1878 for all earthquakes with epicentral intensities greater than IV, since 1750 for intensities greater than VI, since 1600 for intensities greater than VIII, and since 1300 for intensities greater than IX. Instrumental data provide accurate information about the depth distribution of earthquakes in Switzerland. In the Alps, focal depths are restricted to the uppermost 15 km of the crust, whereas below the northern Alpine foreland earthquakes are distributed throughout the entire crust (30 km). This depth distribution is considered in the final hazard analysis by probability distributions. (author) figs., tabs., refs

  7. Impact of earthquake source complexity and land elevation data resolution on tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro

    2018-03-01

    This study investigates the impact of model complexity in source characterization and digital elevation model (DEM) resolution on the accuracy of tsunami hazard assessment and fatality estimation through a case study in Padang, Indonesia. Two types of earthquake source models, i.e. complex and uniform slip models, are adopted by considering three resolutions of DEMs, i.e. 150 m, 50 m, and 10 m. For each of the three grid resolutions, 300 complex source models are generated using new statistical prediction models of earthquake source parameters developed from extensive finite-fault models of past subduction earthquakes, whilst 100 uniform slip models are constructed with variable fault geometry without slip heterogeneity. The results highlight that significant changes to tsunami hazard and fatality estimates are observed with regard to earthquake source complexity and grid resolution. Coarse resolution (i.e. 150 m) leads to inaccurate tsunami hazard prediction and fatality estimation, whilst 50-m and 10-m resolutions produce similar results. However, velocity and momentum flux are sensitive to the grid resolution and hence, at least 10-m grid resolution needs to be implemented when considering flow-based parameters for tsunami hazard and risk assessments. In addition, the results indicate that the tsunami hazard parameters and fatality number are more sensitive to the complexity of earthquake source characterization than the grid resolution. Thus, the uniform models are not recommended for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessments. Finally, the findings confirm that uncertainties of tsunami hazard level and fatality in terms of depth, velocity and momentum flux can be captured and visualized through the complex source modeling approach. From tsunami risk management perspectives, this indeed creates big data, which are useful for making effective and robust decisions.

  8. Assessment of the 1988 Saguenay earthquake: Implications on attenuation functions for seismic hazard analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K. (Risk Engineering, Inc., Golden, CO (United States))

    1991-09-01

    This study investigates the earthquake records from the 1988 Saguenay earthquake and examines the implications of these records with respect to ground-motion models used in seismic-hazard studies in eastern North America (ENA), specifically, to what extent the ground motions from this earthquake support or reject the various attenuation functions used in the EPRI and LLNL seismic-hazard calculations. Section 2 provides a brief description of the EPRI and LLNL attenuation functions for peak acceleration and for spectral velocities. Section 2 compares these attenuation functions the ground motions from the Saguenay earthquake and from other relevant earthquakes. Section 4 reviews available seismological studies about the Saguenay earthquake, in order to understand its seismological characteristics and why some observations may differ from predictions. Section 5 examines the assumptions and methodology used in the development of the attenuation functions selected by LLNL ground-motion expert 5. Finally, Section 6 draws conclusions about the validity of the various sets of attenuation functions, in light of the Saguenay data and of other evidence presented here. 50 refs., 37 figs., 7 tabs.

  9. Assessment of Earthquake Hazard Parameters with Bayesian Approach Method Around Karliova Triple Junction, Eastern Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Türker, Tugba; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2017-12-01

    In this study, the Bayesian Approach method is used to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters of maximum regional magnitude (Mmax), β value, and seismic activity rate or intensity (λ) and their uncertainties for next 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 years around Karlıova Triple Junction (KTJ). A compiled earthquake catalog that is homogenous for Ms ≥ 3.0 was completed during the period from 1900 to 2017. We are divided into four different seismic source regions based on epicenter distribution, tectonic, seismicity, faults around KTJ. We two historical earthquakes (1866, Ms=7.2 for Region 3 (Between Bingöl-Karlıova-Muş-Bitlis (Bahçeköy Fault Zone-Uzunpınar Fault Zone-Karakoçan Fault-Muę Fault Zones -Kavakbaşı Fault)) and 1874, Ms=7.1 for Region 4 (Between Malatya-Elaziğ-Tunceli (Palu Basin-Pütürge Basin-Erkenek Fault-Malatya Fault)) are included around KTJ. The computed Mmax values are between 7.71 and 8.17. The quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitude on a given time interval [0, T] are evaluated. The quantiles of functions of distributions of apparent and true magnitudes for next time intervals of 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years are calculated for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70, and 90 % around KTJ. According to the computed earthquake hazard parameters, Erzincan Basin-Ovacık Fault-Pülümur Fault-Yedisu Basin region was the most seismic active regions of KTJ. Erzincan Basin-Ovacik Fault-Pulumur Fault-Yedisu Basin region is estimated the highest earthquake magnitude 7.16 with a 90 % probability level in the next 100 years which the most dangerous region compared to other regions. The results of this study can be used in earthquake hazard studies of the East Anatolian region.

  10. Global Earthquake Hazard Distribution - Peak Ground Acceleration

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Distribution-Peak Ground Acceleration is a 2.5 by 2.5 minute grid of global earthquake hazards developed using Global Seismic Hazard Program...

  11. Global Earthquake Hazard Distribution - Peak Ground Acceleration

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Distribution-peak ground acceleration is a 2.5 minute grid of global earthquake hazards developed using Global Seismic Hazard Program...

  12. New seafloor map of the Puerto Rico Trench helps assess earthquake and tsunami hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Brink, Uri S.; Danforth, William; Polloni, Christopher; Andrews, Brian D.; Llanes Estrada, Pilar; Smith, Shepard; Parker, Eugene; Uozumi, Toshihiko

    2004-01-01

    The Puerto Rico Trench, the deepest part of the Atlantic Ocean, is located where the North American (NOAM) plate is subducting under the Caribbean plate (Figure l). The trench region may pose significant seismic and tsunami hazards to Puerto Rico and the U.S.Virgin Islands, where 4 million U.S. citizens reside. Widespread damage in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from an earthquake in 1787 was estimated to be the result of a magnitude 8 earthquake north of the islands [McCann et al., 2004]. A tsunami killed 40 people in NW Puerto Rico following a magnitude 7.3 earthquake in 1918 [Mercado and McCann, 1998]. Large landslide escarpments have been mapped on the seafloor north of Puerto Rico [Mercado et al., 2002; Schwab et al., 1991],although their ages are unknown.

  13. Geophysical surveying in the Sacramento Delta for earthquake hazard assessment and measurement of peat thickness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, M. S.; Kundariya, N.; Hayashi, K.; Srinivas, A.; Burnham, M.; Oikawa, P.

    2017-12-01

    Near surface geophysical surveys were conducted in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta for earthquake hazard assessment and to provide estimates of peat thickness for use in carbon models. Delta islands have experienced 3-8 meters of subsidence during the past century due to oxidation and compaction of peat. Projected sea level rise over the next century will contribute to an ongoing landward shift of the freshwater-saltwater interface, and increase the risk of flooding due to levee failure or overtopping. Seismic shear wave velocity (VS) was measured in the upper 30 meters to determine Uniform Building Code (UBC)/ National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) site class. Both seismic and ground penetrating radar (GPR) methods were employed to estimate peat thickness. Seismic surface wave surveys were conducted at eight sites on three islands and GPR surveys were conducted at two of the sites. Combined with sites surveyed in 2015, the new work brings the total number of sites surveyed in the Delta to twenty.Soil boreholes were made at several locations using a hand auger, and peat thickness ranged from 2.1 to 5.5 meters. Seismic surveys were conducted using the multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) method and the microtremor array method (MAM). On Bouldin Island, VS of the surficial peat layer was 32 m/s at a site with pure peat and 63 m/s at a site peat with higher clay and silt content. Velocities at these sites reached a similar value, about 125 m/s, at a depth of 10 m. GPR surveys were performed at two sites on Sherman Island using 100 MHz antennas, and indicated the base of the peat layer at a depth of about 4 meters, consistent with nearby auger holes.The results of this work include VS depth profiles and UBC/NEHRP site classifications. Seismic and GPR methods may be used in a complementary fashion to estimate peat thickness. The seismic surface wave method is a relatively robust method and more effective than GPR in many areas with high clay

  14. Rapid field-based landslide hazard assessment in response to post-earthquake emergency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frattini, Paolo; Gambini, Stefano; Cancelliere, Giorgio

    2016-04-01

    On April 25, 2015 a Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred 80 km to the northwest of Kathmandu (Nepal). The largest aftershock, occurred on May 12, 2015, was the Mw 7.3 Nepal earthquake (SE of Zham, China), 80 km to the east of Kathmandu. . The earthquakes killed ~9000 people and severely damaged a 10,000 sqkm region in Nepal and neighboring countries. Several thousands of landslides have been triggered during the event, causing widespread damages to mountain villages and the evacuation of thousands of people. Rasuwa was one of the most damaged districts. This contribution describes landslide hazard analysis of the Saramthali, Yarsa and Bhorle VDCs (122 km2, Rasuwa district). Hazard is expressed in terms of qualitative classes (low, medium, high), through a simple matrix approach that combines frequency classes and magnitude classes. The hazard analysis is based primarily on the experience gained during a field survey conducted in September 2014. During the survey, local knowledge has been systematically exploited through interviews with local people that have experienced the earthquake and the coseismic landslides. People helped us to recognize fractures and active deformations, and allowed to reconstruct a correct chronicle of landslide events, in order to assign the landslide events to the first shock, the second shock, or the post-earthquake 2015 monsoon. The field experience was complemented with a standard analysis of the relationship between potential controlling factors and the distribution of landslides reported in Kargel et al (2016). This analysis allowed recognizing the most important controlling factor. This information was integrated with the field observations to verify the mapped units and to complete the mapping in area not accessible for field activity. Finally, the work was completed with the analysis and the use of a detailed landslide inventory produced by the University of Milano Bicocca that covers most of the area affected by coseismic landslides in

  15. The 1945 Balochistan earthquake and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höchner, Andreas; Babeyko, Andrey; Zamora, Natalia

    2014-05-01

    Iran and Pakistan are countries quite frequently affected by destructive earthquakes. For instance, the magnitude 6.6 Bam earthquake in 2003 in Iran with about 30'000 casualties, or the magnitude 7.6 Kashmir earthquake 2005 in Pakistan with about 80'000 casualties. Both events took place inland, but in terms of magnitude, even significantly larger events can be expected to happen offshore, at the Makran subduction zone. This small subduction zone is seismically rather quiescent, but a tsunami caused by a thrust event in 1945 (Balochistan earthquake) led to about 4000 casualties. Nowadays, the coastal regions are more densely populated and vulnerable to similar events. Additionally, some recent publications raise the question of the possiblity of rare but huge magnitude 9 events at the Makran subduction zone. We first model the historic Balochistan event and its effect in terms of coastal wave heights, and then generate various synthetic earthquake and tsunami catalogs including the possibility of large events in order to asses the tsunami hazard at the affected coastal regions. Finally, we show how an effective tsunami early warning could be achieved by the use of an array of high-precision real-time GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) receivers along the coast.

  16. A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Türker, Tuğba, E-mail: tturker@ktu.edu.tr [Karadeniz Technical University, Department of Geophysics, Trabzon/Turkey (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: ybayrak@agri.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı/Turkey (Turkey)

    2016-04-18

    North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson method the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M{sub S}=7.3 and 1897, M{sub S}=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M{sub S} magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9) %99

  17. A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Türker, Tuğba; Bayrak, Yusuf

    2016-01-01

    North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson method the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M S =7.3 and 1897, M S =7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M S magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9) %99 with an

  18. Physics-Based Hazard Assessment for Critical Structures Near Large Earthquake Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchings, L.; Mert, A.; Fahjan, Y.; Novikova, T.; Golara, A.; Miah, M.; Fergany, E.; Foxall, W.

    2017-09-01

    We argue that for critical structures near large earthquake sources: (1) the ergodic assumption, recent history, and simplified descriptions of the hazard are not appropriate to rely on for earthquake ground motion prediction and can lead to a mis-estimation of the hazard and risk to structures; (2) a physics-based approach can address these issues; (3) a physics-based source model must be provided to generate realistic phasing effects from finite rupture and model near-source ground motion correctly; (4) wave propagations and site response should be site specific; (5) a much wider search of possible sources of ground motion can be achieved computationally with a physics-based approach; (6) unless one utilizes a physics-based approach, the hazard and risk to structures has unknown uncertainties; (7) uncertainties can be reduced with a physics-based approach, but not with an ergodic approach; (8) computational power and computer codes have advanced to the point that risk to structures can be calculated directly from source and site-specific ground motions. Spanning the variability of potential ground motion in a predictive situation is especially difficult for near-source areas, but that is the distance at which the hazard is the greatest. The basis of a "physical-based" approach is ground-motion syntheses derived from physics and an understanding of the earthquake process. This is an overview paper and results from previous studies are used to make the case for these conclusions. Our premise is that 50 years of strong motion records is insufficient to capture all possible ranges of site and propagation path conditions, rupture processes, and spatial geometric relationships between source and site. Predicting future earthquake scenarios is necessary; models that have little or no physical basis but have been tested and adjusted to fit available observations can only "predict" what happened in the past, which should be considered description as opposed to prediction

  19. Assessment of seismic hazard for NPP sites in France analysis of several aftershocks of November 8, 1983, Liege earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadioun, B.; Mohammadioun, G.; Bresson, A.

    1984-03-01

    Current French practice for assessing seismic hazard on the sites of nuclear facilities is outlined. The procedure calls for as rich and varied an assortment of actual earthquake recordings as can be procured, including earthquakes in France itself and in nearby countries, recorded by the CEA/IPSN's own staff. Following the November 8, 1983, Liege earthquake, suitably equipped, temporary recording stations were set up in the epicentral area in order to record its aftershocks. Ground motion time histories and response spectra were computed for several of these, and a quality factor Q was derived from these data for the most superficial sedimentary layers of the area. The values obtained show reasonable agreement with ones found for similar materials in other regions

  20. Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Coastal South Africa Based on Mega-Earthquakes of Remote Subduction Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kijko, Andrzej; Smit, Ansie; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Novikova, Tatyana

    2017-11-01

    After the mega-earthquakes and concomitant devastating tsunamis in Sumatra (2004) and Japan (2011), we launched an investigation into the potential risk of tsunami hazard to the coastal cities of South Africa. This paper presents the analysis of the seismic hazard of seismogenic sources that could potentially generate tsunamis, as well as the analysis of the tsunami hazard to coastal areas of South Africa. The subduction zones of Makran, South Sandwich Island, Sumatra, and the Andaman Islands were identified as possible sources of mega-earthquakes and tsunamis that could affect the African coast. Numerical tsunami simulations were used to investigate the realistic and worst-case scenarios that could be generated by these subduction zones. The simulated tsunami amplitudes and run-up heights calculated for the coastal cities of Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth are relatively small and therefore pose no real risk to the South African coast. However, only distant tsunamigenic sources were considered and the results should therefore be viewed as preliminary.

  1. Vulnerability assessment of archaeological sites to earthquake hazard: An indicator based method integrating spatial and temporal aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Despina Minos-Minopoulos

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Across the world, numerous sites of cultural heritage value are at risk from a variety of human-induced and natural hazards such as war and earthquakes. Here we present and test a novel indicator-based method for assessing the vulnerability of archaeological sites to earthquakes. Vulnerability is approached as a dynamic element assessed through a combination of spatial and temporal parameters. The spatial parameters examine the susceptibility of the sites to the secondary Earthquake Environmental Effects of ground liquefaction, landslides and tsunami and are expressed through the Spatial Susceptibility Index (SSi. Parameters of physical vulnerability, economic importance and visitors density examine the temporal vulnerability of the sites expressed through the Temporal Vulnerability Index (TVi. The equally weighted sum of the spatial and temporal indexes represents the total Archaeological Site Vulnerability Index (A.S.V.I.. The A.S.V.I method is applied at 16 archaeological sites across Greece, allowing an assessment of their vulnerability. This then allows the establishment of a regional and national priority list for considering future risk mitigation. Results indicate that i the majority of the sites have low to moderate vulnerability to earthquake hazard, ii Neratzia Fortress on Kos and Heraion on Samos are characterised as highly vulnerable and should be prioritised for further studies and mitigation measures, and iii the majority of the sites are susceptible to at least one Earthquake Environmental Effect and present relatively high physical vulnerability attributed to the existing limited conservation works. This approach highlights the necessity for an effective vulnerability assessment methodology within the existing framework of disaster risk management for cultural heritage.

  2. Lessons from the conviction of the L'Aquila seven: The standard probabilistic earthquake hazard and risk assessment is ineffective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, Max

    2013-04-01

    An earthquake of M6.3 killed 309 people in L'Aquila, Italy, on 6 April 2011. Subsequently, a judge in L'Aquila convicted seven who had participated in an emergency meeting on March 30, assessing the probability of a major event to follow the ongoing earthquake swarm. The sentence was six years in prison, a combine fine of 2 million Euros, loss of job, loss of retirement rent, and lawyer's costs. The judge followed the prosecution's accusation that the review by the Commission of Great Risks had conveyed a false sense of security to the population, which consequently did not take their usual precautionary measures before the deadly earthquake. He did not consider the facts that (1) one of the convicted was not a member of the commission and had merrily obeyed orders to bring the latest seismological facts to the discussion, (2) another was an engineer who was not required to have any expertise regarding the probability of earthquakes, (3) and two others were seismologists not invited to speak to the public at a TV interview and a press conference. This exaggerated judgment was the consequence of an uproar in the population, who felt misinformed and even mislead. Faced with a population worried by an earthquake swarm, the head of the Italian Civil Defense is on record ordering that the population be calmed, and the vice head executed this order in a TV interview one hour before the meeting of the Commission by stating "the scientific community continues to tell me that the situation is favorable and that there is a discharge of energy." The first lesson to be learned is that communications to the public about earthquake hazard and risk must not be left in the hands of someone who has gross misunderstandings about seismology. They must be carefully prepared by experts. The more significant lesson is that the approach to calm the population and the standard probabilistic hazard and risk assessment, as practiced by GSHAP, are misleading. The later has been criticized as

  3. Earthquake induced liquefaction hazard, probability and risk assessment in the city of Kolkata, India: its historical perspective and deterministic scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Sankar Kumar; Srivastava, Nishtha; Ghatak, Chitralekha; Adhikari, Manik Das; Ghosh, Ambarish; Sinha Ray, S. P.

    2018-01-01

    Liquefaction-induced ground failure is one amongst the leading causes of infrastructure damage due to the impact of large earthquakes in unconsolidated, non-cohesive, water saturated alluvial terrains. The city of Kolkata is located on the potentially liquefiable alluvial fan deposits of Ganga-Bramhaputra-Meghna Delta system with subsurface litho-stratigraphic sequence comprising of varying percentages of clay, cohesionless silt, sand, and gravel interbedded with decomposed wood and peat. Additionally, the region has moderately shallow groundwater condition especially in the post-monsoon seasons. In view of burgeoning population, there had been unplanned expansion of settlements in the hazardous geological, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions exposing the city to severe liquefaction hazard. The 1897 Shillong and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes both of M w 8.1 reportedly induced Modified Mercalli Intensity of IV-V and VI-VII respectively in the city reportedly triggering widespread to sporadic liquefaction condition with surface manifestation of sand boils, lateral spreading, ground subsidence, etc., thus posing a strong case for liquefaction potential analysis in the terrain. With the motivation of assessing seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk of the city of Kolkata through a consorted federal funding stipulated for all the metros and upstart urban centers in India located in BIS seismic zones III, IV, and V with population more than one million, an attempt has been made here to understand the liquefaction susceptibility condition of Kolkata under the impact of earthquake loading employing modern multivariate techniques and also to predict deterministic liquefaction scenario of the city in the event of a probabilistic seismic hazard condition with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and a return period of 475 years. We conducted in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations in the city encompassing 435 km2 area. The stochastically

  4. Earthquake induced liquefaction hazard, probability and risk assessment in the city of Kolkata, India: its historical perspective and deterministic scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, Sankar Kumar; Srivastava, Nishtha; Ghatak, Chitralekha; Adhikari, Manik Das; Ghosh, Ambarish; Sinha Ray, S. P.

    2017-09-01

    Liquefaction-induced ground failure is one amongst the leading causes of infrastructure damage due to the impact of large earthquakes in unconsolidated, non-cohesive, water saturated alluvial terrains. The city of Kolkata is located on the potentially liquefiable alluvial fan deposits of Ganga-Bramhaputra-Meghna Delta system with subsurface litho-stratigraphic sequence comprising of varying percentages of clay, cohesionless silt, sand, and gravel interbedded with decomposed wood and peat. Additionally, the region has moderately shallow groundwater condition especially in the post-monsoon seasons. In view of burgeoning population, there had been unplanned expansion of settlements in the hazardous geological, geomorphological, and hydrological conditions exposing the city to severe liquefaction hazard. The 1897 Shillong and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes both of M w 8.1 reportedly induced Modified Mercalli Intensity of IV-V and VI-VII respectively in the city reportedly triggering widespread to sporadic liquefaction condition with surface manifestation of sand boils, lateral spreading, ground subsidence, etc., thus posing a strong case for liquefaction potential analysis in the terrain. With the motivation of assessing seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk of the city of Kolkata through a consorted federal funding stipulated for all the metros and upstart urban centers in India located in BIS seismic zones III, IV, and V with population more than one million, an attempt has been made here to understand the liquefaction susceptibility condition of Kolkata under the impact of earthquake loading employing modern multivariate techniques and also to predict deterministic liquefaction scenario of the city in the event of a probabilistic seismic hazard condition with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years and a return period of 475 years. We conducted in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations in the city encompassing 435 km2 area. The stochastically

  5. Playing against nature: improving earthquake hazard mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S. A.; Stein, J.

    2012-12-01

    The great 2011 Tohoku earthquake dramatically demonstrated the need to improve earthquake and tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation policies. The earthquake was much larger than predicted by hazard models, and the resulting tsunami overtopped coastal defenses, causing more than 15,000 deaths and $210 billion damage. Hence if and how such defenses should be rebuilt is a challenging question, because the defences fared poorly and building ones to withstand tsunamis as large as March's is too expensive,. A similar issue arises along the Nankai Trough to the south, where new estimates warning of tsunamis 2-5 times higher than in previous models raise the question of what to do, given that the timescale on which such events may occur is unknown. Thus in the words of economist H. Hori, "What should we do in face of uncertainty? Some say we should spend our resources on present problems instead of wasting them on things whose results are uncertain. Others say we should prepare for future unknown disasters precisely because they are uncertain". Thus society needs strategies to mitigate earthquake and tsunami hazards that make economic and societal sense, given that our ability to assess these hazards is poor, as illustrated by highly destructive earthquakes that often occur in areas predicted by hazard maps to be relatively safe. Conceptually, we are playing a game against nature "of which we still don't know all the rules" (Lomnitz, 1989). Nature chooses tsunami heights or ground shaking, and society selects the strategy to minimize the total costs of damage plus mitigation costs. As in any game of chance, we maximize our expectation value by selecting the best strategy, given our limited ability to estimate the occurrence and effects of future events. We thus outline a framework to find the optimal level of mitigation by balancing its cost against the expected damages, recognizing the uncertainties in the hazard estimates. This framework illustrates the role of the

  6. 13 CFR 120.174 - Earthquake hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Earthquake hazards. 120.174... Applying to All Business Loans Requirements Imposed Under Other Laws and Orders § 120.174 Earthquake..., the construction must conform with the “National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (“NEHRP...

  7. Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 by 2.5 minute global utilizing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Earthquake Catalog data of actual...

  8. Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Earthquake Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid utilizing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Earthquake Catalog data of actual...

  9. Development of direct multi-hazard susceptibility assessment method for post-earthquake reconstruction planning in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavrouli, Olga; Rana, Sohel; van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Jianqiang

    2017-04-01

    After the devastating 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, reconstruction activities have been delayed considerably, due to many reasons, of a political, organizational and technical nature. Due to the widespread occurrence of co-seismic landslides, and the expectation that these may be aggravated or re-activated in future years during the intense monsoon periods, there is a need to evaluate for thousands of sites whether these are suited for reconstruction. In this evaluation multi-hazards, such as rockfall, landslides, debris flow, and flashfloods should be taken into account. The application of indirect knowledge-based, data-driven or physically-based approaches is not suitable due to several reasons. Physically-based models generally require a large number of parameters, for which data is not available. Data-driven, statistical methods, depend on historical information, which is less useful after the occurrence of a major event, such as an earthquake. Besides, they would lead to unacceptable levels of generalization, as the analysis is done based on rather general causal factor maps. The same holds for indirect knowledge-driven methods. However, location-specific hazards analysis is required using a simple method that can be used by many people at the local level. In this research, a direct scientific method was developed where local level technical people can easily and quickly assess the post-earthquake multi hazards following a decision tree approach, using an app on a smartphone or tablet. The methods assumes that a central organization, such as the Department of Soil Conservation and Watershed Management, generates spatial information beforehand that is used in the direct assessment at a certain location. Pre-earthquake, co-seismic and post-seismic landslide inventories are generated through the interpretation of Google Earth multi-temporal images, using anaglyph methods. Spatial data, such as Digital Elevation Models, land cover maps, and geological maps are

  10. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment based on the long-term evaluation of subduction-zone earthquakes along the Sagami Trough, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Ohsumi, T.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Maeda, T.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murata, Y.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.; Hakamata, T.

    2017-12-01

    For the forthcoming large earthquakes along the Sagami Trough where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting beneath the northeast Japan arc, the Earthquake Research Committee(ERC) /Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Japanese government (2014a) assessed that M7 and M8 class earthquakes will occur there and defined the possible extent of the earthquake source areas. They assessed 70% and 0% 5% of the occurrence probability within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2014), respectively, for the M7 and M8 class earthquakes. First, we set possible 10 earthquake source areas(ESAs) and 920 ESAs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes. Next, we constructed 125 characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) and 938 CEFMs, respectively, for M8 and M7 class earthquakes, based on "tsunami receipt" of ERC (2017) (Kitoh et al., 2016, JpGU). All the CEFMs are allowed to have a large slip area for expression of fault slip heterogeneity. For all the CEFMs, we calculate tsunamis by solving a nonlinear long wave equation, using FDM, including runup calculation, over a nesting grid system with a minimum grid size of 50 meters. Finally, we re-distributed the occurrence probability to all CEFMs (Abe et al., 2014, JpGU) and gathered excess probabilities for variable tsunami heights, calculated from all the CEFMs, at every observation point along Pacific coast to get PTHA. We incorporated aleatory uncertainties inherent in tsunami calculation and earthquake fault slip heterogeneity. We considered two kinds of probabilistic hazard models; one is "Present-time hazard model" under an assumption that the earthquake occurrence basically follows a renewal process based on BPT distribution if the latest faulting time was known. The other is "Long-time averaged hazard model" under an assumption that earthquake occurrence follows a stationary Poisson process. We fixed our viewpoint, for example, on the probability that the tsunami height will exceed 3 meters at coastal points in next

  11. Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Strategy in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnawati, D.; Anderson, R.; Pramumijoyo, S.

    2008-05-01

    Because of the active tectonic setting of the region, the risks of geological hazards inevitably increase in Indonesian Archipelagoes and other ASIAN countries. Encouraging community living in the vulnerable area to adapt with the nature of geology will be the most appropriate strategy for earthquake risk reduction. Updating the Earthquake Hazard Maps, enhancement ofthe existing landuse management , establishment of public education strategy and method, strengthening linkages among stake holders of disaster mitigation institutions as well as establishement of continues public consultation are the main strategic programs for community resilience in earthquake vulnerable areas. This paper highlights some important achievements of Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Programs in Indonesia, together with the difficulties in implementing such programs. Case examples of Yogyakarta and Bengkulu Earthquake Mitigation efforts will also be discussed as the lesson learned. The new approach for developing earthquake hazard map which is innitiating by mapping the psychological aspect of the people living in vulnerable area will be addressed as well.

  12. Multicomponent Body and Surface Wave Seismic Analysis using an Urban Land Streamer System: An Integrative Earthquake Hazards Assessment Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gribler, G.; Liberty, L. M.

    2014-12-01

    We present earthquake site response results from a 48-channel multicomponent seismic land streamer and large weight drop system. We acquired data along a grid of city streets in western Idaho at a rate of a few km per day where we derived shear wave velocity profiles to a depth of 40-50 m by incorporating vertical and radial geophone signals to capture the complete elliptical Rayleigh wave motion. We also obtained robust p-wave reflection and refraction results by capturing the returned signals that arrive at non-vertical incidence angles that result from the high-velocity road surface layer. By integrating the derived shear wave velocity profiles with p-wave reflection results, we include depositional and tectonic boundaries from the upper few hundred meters into our analysis to help assess whether ground motions may be amplified by shallow bedrock. By including p-wave refraction information into the analysis, we can identify zones of high liquefaction potential by comparing shear wave and p-wave velocity (Vp/Vs) measurements relative to refraction-derived water table depths. The utilization of multicomponent land streamer data improves signal-noise levels over single component data with no additional field effort. The added multicomponent data processing step can be as simple as calculating the magnitude of the vector for surface wave and refraction arrivals or rotating the reflected signals to the maximum emergence angle based on near surface p-wave velocity information. We show example data from a number of Idaho communities where historical earthquakes have been recorded. We also present numerical models and systematic field tests that show the effects of a high velocity road surface layer in surface and body wave measurements. We conclude that multicomponent seismic information derived from seismic land streamers can provide a significant improvement in earthquake hazard assessment over a standard single component approach with only a small addition in

  13. Historical Earthquakes As Examples To Assess The Seismic Hazard In The Eastern Region of Venezuela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, J.; Posadas, A.; Avendaño, J.; Sierra, R.; Bonive, F.

    The North-East region of Venezuela lies on the border of the friction zone between the Caribbean and South-American tectonic plates, a source of great seismicity. The first written news of an earthquake in the American Continent were those of the earth- quake of september 1530 which caused damage to Cumaná, the first town of that Continent. Since then a continuous series of earthquakes have been reported, many of them with damaging effects on Cumaná; those caused in the 1929 earthquake (17-01- 1929; with IX Mercalli degrees) were well described by Sidney Paige in the Vo. 20 of the B.S.S.A., March, 1930. An earthquake of magnitude 5.9 {11-06-1986; 10.26z N,63.29z W} was the trigger for the Unesco`s intention to declare the Estado Sucre as a pilot zone for seismological studies. In 1991 a report issued by the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Matematical Geophysics (Academy of Sciences, U.R.S.S.) stated that the ocurrence of an earthquake of great magnitude which could affect the North-East region of Venezuela was possible. Other studies of the seismicity of the region have been carried out. The interest of the authorities and of the seismologists reached a peak with the earthquake of july 1997 (10.456z N, 63.555z W), with a magnitude of 6.9; there was a death toll of 73, around 528 people injured and more than 2000 houses needed to be completely rebuilt. A study of micro- zonification of the city of Cumaná has been carried out recently and the results of this study will be presented also to this Congress.

  14. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of Natural External Hazards Including Earthquakes. Workshop Proceedings, Prague, Czech Republic, 17-20 June 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    The Fukushima Dai-ichi accident triggered discussions about the significance of external hazards and their treatment in safety analyses. In addition, stress tests results have shown vulnerabilities and potential of cliff-edge effects in plant responses to external hazards and have identified possibilities and priorities for improvements and safety measures' implementation at specific sites and designs. In order to address these issues and provide relevant conclusions and recommendations to CSNI and CNRA, the CSNI Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRISK) directed, in cooperation with the CSNI Working Group on Integrity and Ageing of Components and Structures (WGIAGE), a workshop hosted by UJV Rez. The key objectives of the workshop were to collect information from the OECD member states on methods and approaches being used, and experience gained in probabilistic safety assessment of natural external hazards, as well as to support the fulfillment of the CSNI task on 'PSA of natural external hazards including earthquakes'. These objectives are described more in detail in the introduction in Chapter 1 of this report. The WGRISK activities preceding the workshop and leading to the decision to organize it are described in Chapter 2 of this report. The focus of the workshop was on external events PSA for nuclear power plants, including all modes of operation. The workshop scope was generally limited to external, natural hazards, including those hazards where the distinction between natural and man-made hazards is not sharp. The detailed information about the presentations, discussions, and results of the workshop is presented in Chapter 3 of this report. Some general conclusions were agreed on during the workshop, which are presented in the following paragraphs. - The lessons learned from the Fukushima Dai-ichi reactor accidents and related actions at the national, regional, and global level have emphasized the importance to assess risks associated (authors) with

  15. A preliminary assessment of earthquake ground shaking hazard at Yucca Mountain, Nevada and implications to the Las Vegas region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, I.G.; Green, R.K.; Sun, J.I.; Pezzopane, S.K.; Abrahamson, N.A.; Quittmeyer, R.C.

    1996-01-01

    As part of early design studies for the potential Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, the authors have performed a preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of ground shaking. A total of 88 Quaternary faults within 100 km of the site were considered in the hazard analysis. They were characterized in terms of their probability o being seismogenic, and their geometry, maximum earthquake magnitude, recurrence model, and slip rate. Individual faults were characterized by maximum earthquakes that ranged from moment magnitude (M w ) 5.1 to 7.6. Fault slip rates ranged from a very low 0.00001 mm/yr to as much as 4 mm/yr. An areal source zone representing background earthquakes up to M w 6 1/4 = 1/4 was also included in the analysis. Recurrence for these background events was based on the 1904--1994 historical record, which contains events up to M w 5.6. Based on this analysis, the peak horizontal rock accelerations are 0.16, 0.21, 0.28, and 0.50 g for return periods of 500, 1,000, 2,000, and 10,000 years, respectively. In general, the dominant contributor to the ground shaking hazard at Yucca Mountain are background earthquakes because of the low slip rates of the Basin and Range faults. A significant effect on the probabilistic ground motions is due to the inclusion of a new attenuation relation developed specifically for earthquakes in extensional tectonic regimes. This relation gives significantly lower peak accelerations than five other predominantly California-based relations used in the analysis, possibly due to the lower stress drops of extensional earthquakes compared to California events. Because Las Vegas is located within the same tectonic regime as Yucca Mountain, the seismic sources and path and site factors affecting the seismic hazard at Yucca Mountain also have implications to Las Vegas. These implications are discussed in this paper

  16. The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

  17. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

  18. Preliminary Earthquake Hazard Map of Afghanistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Oliver S.; Mueller, Charles S.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

    2007-01-01

    Introduction Earthquakes represent a serious threat to the people and institutions of Afghanistan. As part of a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) effort to assess the resource potential and seismic hazards of Afghanistan, the Seismic Hazard Mapping group of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) has prepared a series of probabilistic seismic hazard maps that help quantify the expected frequency and strength of ground shaking nationwide. To construct the maps, we do a complete hazard analysis for each of ~35,000 sites in the study area. We use a probabilistic methodology that accounts for all potential seismic sources and their rates of earthquake activity, and we incorporate modeling uncertainty by using logic trees for source and ground-motion parameters. See the Appendix for an explanation of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and discussion of seismic risk. Afghanistan occupies a southward-projecting, relatively stable promontory of the Eurasian tectonic plate (Ambraseys and Bilham, 2003; Wheeler and others, 2005). Active plate boundaries, however, surround Afghanistan on the west, south, and east. To the west, the Arabian plate moves northward relative to Eurasia at about 3 cm/yr. The active plate boundary trends northwestward through the Zagros region of southwestern Iran. Deformation is accommodated throughout the territory of Iran; major structures include several north-south-trending, right-lateral strike-slip fault systems in the east and, farther to the north, a series of east-west-trending reverse- and strike-slip faults. This deformation apparently does not cross the border into relatively stable western Afghanistan. In the east, the Indian plate moves northward relative to Eurasia at a rate of about 4 cm/yr. A broad, transpressional plate-boundary zone extends into eastern Afghanistan, trending southwestward from the Hindu Kush in northeast Afghanistan, through Kabul, and along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border

  19. Space-time behavior of continental intraplate earthquakes and implications for hazard assessment in China and the Central U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian; Luo, Gang; Wang, Hui

    2014-05-01

    much faster than it accumulates today, suggesting that they result from recent fault activation that releases prestored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current New Madrid earthquake sequence is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences is critical to improve hazard assessments

  20. Review of earthquake hazard assessments of plant sites at Paducah, Kentucky and Portsmouth, Ohio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    Members of the US Geological Survey staff in Golden, Colorado, have reviewed the submissions of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) staff and of Risk Engineering, Inc. (REI) (Golden, Colorado) for seismic hazard estimates for Department of Energy facilities at Portsmouth, Ohio, and Paducah, Kentucky. We reviewed the historical seismicity and seismotectonics near the two sites, and general features of the LLNL and EPRI/SOG methodologies used by LLNL and Risk Engineering respectively, and also the separate Risk Engineering methodology used at Paducah. We discussed generic issues that affect the modeling of both sites, and performed alternative calculations to determine sensitivities of seismic hazard results to various assumptions and models in an attempt to assign reasonable bounding values of the hazard. In our studies we find that peak acceleration values of 0.08 g for Portsmouth and 0.32 g for Paducah represent central values of the, ground motions obtained at 1000-year return periods. Peak accelerations obtained in the LLNL and Risk Engineering studies have medians near these values (results obtained using the EPRI/SOG methodology appear low at both sites), and we believe that these medians are appropriate values for use in the evaluation of systems, structures, and components for seismic structural integrity and for the seismic design of new and improved systems, structures, and components at Portsmouth and Paducah.

  1. Review of earthquake hazard assessments of plant sites at Paducah, Kentucky and Portsmouth, Ohio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    Members of the US Geological Survey staff in Golden, Colorado, have reviewed the submissions of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) staff and of Risk Engineering, Inc. (REI) (Golden, Colorado) for seismic hazard estimates for Department of Energy facilities at Portsmouth, Ohio, and Paducah, Kentucky. We reviewed the historical seismicity and seismotectonics near the two sites, and general features of the LLNL and EPRI/SOG methodologies used by LLNL and Risk Engineering respectively, and also the separate Risk Engineering methodology used at Paducah. We discussed generic issues that affect the modeling of both sites, and performed alternative calculations to determine sensitivities of seismic hazard results to various assumptions and models in an attempt to assign reasonable bounding values of the hazard. In our studies we find that peak acceleration values of 0.08 g for Portsmouth and 0.32 g for Paducah represent central values of the, ground motions obtained at 1000-year return periods. Peak accelerations obtained in the LLNL and Risk Engineering studies have medians near these values (results obtained using the EPRI/SOG methodology appear low at both sites), and we believe that these medians are appropriate values for use in the evaluation of systems, structures, and components for seismic structural integrity and for the seismic design of new and improved systems, structures, and components at Portsmouth and Paducah

  2. Understanding earthquake hazards in urban areas - Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Oliver S.

    2012-01-01

    The region surrounding Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the proximity of Evansville to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern among nearby communities about hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake and are able to design structures to withstand this estimated ground shaking. Earthquake-hazard maps provide one way of conveying such information and can help the region of Evansville prepare for future earthquakes and reduce earthquake-caused loss of life and financial and structural loss. The Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) has produced three types of hazard maps for the Evansville area: (1) probabilistic seismic-hazard maps show the ground motion that is expected to be exceeded with a given probability within a given period of time; (2) scenario ground-shaking maps show the expected shaking from two specific scenario earthquakes; (3) liquefaction-potential maps show how likely the strong ground shaking from the scenario earthquakes is to produce liquefaction. These maps complement the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Maps but are more detailed regionally and take into account surficial geology, soil thickness, and soil stiffness; these elements greatly affect ground shaking.

  3. Fragility analysis of flood protection structures in earthquake and flood prone areas around Cologne, Germany for multi-hazard risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyagunov, Sergey; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Munoz Jimenez, Cristina; Parolai, Stefano; Fleming, Kevin; Merz, Bruno; Zschau, Jochen

    2013-04-01

    The work presents a methodology for fragility analyses of fluvial earthen dikes in earthquake and flood prone areas. Fragility estimates are being integrated into the multi-hazard (earthquake-flood) risk analysis being undertaken within the framework of the EU FP7 project MATRIX (New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment Methods for Europe) for the city of Cologne, Germany. Scenarios of probable cascading events due to the earthquake-triggered failure of flood protection dikes and the subsequent inundation of surroundings are analyzed for the area between the gauges Andernach and Düsseldorf along the Rhine River. Along this river stretch, urban areas are partly protected by earthen dikes, which may be prone to failure during exceptional floods and/or earthquakes. The seismic fragility of the dikes is considered in terms of liquefaction potential (factor of safety), estimated by the use of the simplified procedure of Seed and Idriss. It is assumed that initiation of liquefaction at any point throughout the earthen dikes' body corresponds to the failure of the dike and, therefore, this should be taken into account for the flood risk calculations. The estimated damage potential of such structures is presented as a two-dimensional surface (as a function of seismic hazard and water level). Uncertainties in geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters are considered within the framework of Monte Carlo simulations. Taking into consideration the spatial configuration of the existing flood protection system within the area under consideration, seismic hazard curves (in terms of PGA) are calculated for sites along the river segment of interest at intervals of 1 km. The obtained estimates are used to calculate the flood risk when considering the temporal coincidence of seismic and flood events. Changes in flood risk for the considered hazard cascade scenarios are quantified and compared to the single-hazard scenarios.

  4. Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Sarfraz; Waseem, Muhammad; Khan, Muhammad Asif; Ahmed, Waqas

    2018-03-01

    A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40-83° N and 20-40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0-8.3 moment magnitude (M W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.

  5. The revaluation of the macroseismic effects of March 4, 1977 earthquake in the frame of the new seismic hazard assessment methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pantea, A.; Constantin, Angela; Anghel, M.

    2002-01-01

    To increase the earthquakes resistance of structure the design norms and construction require the best knowledge of seismic hazard parameters and using the new methodologies of seismic hazard assessment. One of these parameters is seismic intensity of the earthquakes occurred on the whole territory analyzed during as long as possible time interval for which data are available, especially for the strongest of them. For Romanian territory the strongest and the best known from the point of view of the macroseismic effects is the March 4, 1977 earthquake. Seismology by itself, without geophysics (solid earth physics), geology, geography, and geodesy, cannot fully, comprehensively, validly assess seismic hazards. Among those who have understood seismic hazard assessment as the result of cooperation between geosciences as a whole and seismology, one may quote Bune, 1978; Pantea et al., 2002, etc. Assessing seismic hazards is a complex undertaking, for it draws on a vast amount of knowledge in numerous sectors of geosciences, particularly solid earth physics as a branch of geophysics that also includes seismology, tectonic physics, gravimetry, geomagnetism, geochronology, etc.. It involves processing the results of complex geophysical, seismologic, tectonic, and geologic studies. To get a picture of, and understand, the laws that govern seismogenesis, one has to know what the relations are among the measured physical quantities indicating the properties of the rocks (whether gravimetric, magnetometric, electrometric, seismometric, or others), the dynamics of tectonic structures, as well as the nature and geological characteristics. Geophysics can be relied upon to determine the deep internal structure of the earth that geological methods are unable to reveal. Geophysics, and implicitly seismology, can help resolve the problem by: 1. Identifying the areas of the seismic sources and their characteristics, including focal depth, M max [Bune, 1978], and the recurrence chart

  6. 77 FR 18792 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-28

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... should be sent to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of Standards...

  7. 77 FR 75610 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-21

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... meeting on the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) Web site at http://nehrp.gov...

  8. 76 FR 72905 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-28

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction.... ADDRESSES: Questions regarding the meeting should be sent to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program...

  9. 77 FR 27439 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-10

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... should be sent to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of Standards...

  10. 76 FR 64325 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-18

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... relationship of Presidential Policy Directive/PPD-8: National Preparedness to National Earthquake Hazards...

  11. 77 FR 19224 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-30

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... should be sent to National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program Director, National Institute of Standards...

  12. 77 FR 64314 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-19

    ... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction... is to discuss engineering needs for existing buildings, to review the National Earthquake Hazards...

  13. The 1909 Taipei earthquake: implication for seismic hazard in Taipei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamori, Hiroo; Lee, William H.K.; Ma, Kuo-Fong

    2012-01-01

    The 1909 April 14 Taiwan earthquake caused significant damage in Taipei. Most of the information on this earthquake available until now is from the written reports on its macro-seismic effects and from seismic station bulletins. In view of the importance of this event for assessing the shaking hazard in the present-day Taipei, we collected historical seismograms and station bulletins of this event and investigated them in conjunction with other seismological data. We compared the observed seismograms with those from recent earthquakes in similar tectonic environments to characterize the 1909 earthquake. Despite the inevitably large uncertainties associated with old data, we conclude that the 1909 Taipei earthquake is a relatively deep (50–100 km) intraplate earthquake that occurred within the subducting Philippine Sea Plate beneath Taipei with an estimated M_W of 7 ± 0.3. Some intraplate events elsewhere in the world are enriched in high-frequency energy and the resulting ground motions can be very strong. Thus, despite its relatively large depth and a moderately large magnitude, it would be prudent to review the safety of the existing structures in Taipei against large intraplate earthquakes like the 1909 Taipei earthquake.

  14. An innovative assessment of the seismic hazard from Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes: Case studies in Romania and Bulgaria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Cioflan, C.; Marmureanu, G.; Kouteva, M.; Paskaleva, I.; Romanelli, F.

    2002-02-01

    An advanced procedure for ground motion, capable of synthesizing the seismic ground motion from basic understanding of fault mechanism and seismic wave propagation, is applied to the case studies of Bucharest (Romania) and Russe, NE Bulgaria, exposed to the seismic hazard from Vrancea events. Synthetic seismic signals along representative geological cross sections in Bucharest and Russe and been computed and the energetic input spectra have been derived both from the synthetic signals and the few existing records. The theoretical signals are successfully compared with the available observations. The site response has been calculated for three recent, strong and intermediate-depth, Vrancea earthquakes: August 30, 1986 and May 30 and 31, 1990. The used approach differs significantly from today's engineering practice that relays upon rock-site hazard maps and applies the site correction at a later stage. The obtained results show that it is very useful to estimate the site effect via waveform modelling, considering simultaneously the geotechnical properties of the site, the position and geometry of the seismic source and the mechanical properties of the propagation medium. (author)

  15. A Short Term Seismic Hazard Assessment in Christchurch, New Zealand, After the M 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield Earthquake: An Application of a Smoothing Kernel and Rate-and-State Friction Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Han Chan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Mw 6.3, 21 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquake is regarded as an aftershock of the M 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield earthquake. However, it caused severe damage in the downtown Christchurch. Such a circumstance points out the importance of an aftershock sequence in seismic hazard evaluation and suggests the re-evaluation of a seismic hazard immediately after a large earthquake occurrence. For this purpose, we propose a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA, which takes the disturbance of a short-term seismicity rate into account and can be easily applied in comparison with the classical PSHA. In our approach, the treatment of the background seismicity rate is the same as in the zoneless approach, which considers a bandwidth function as a smoothing Kernel in neighboring region of earthquakes. The rate-and-state friction model imparted by the Coulomb stress change of large earthquakes is used to calculate the fault-interaction-based disturbance in seismicity rate for PSHA. We apply this approach to evaluate the seismic hazard in Christchurch after the occurrence of the M 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield earthquake. Results show an increase of seismic hazards due to the stress increase in the region around the rupture plane, which extended to Christchurch. This provides a suitable basis for the application of a time-dependent PSHA using updating earthquake information.

  16. National Earthquake Hazards Program at a Crossroads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    The U.S.National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, which turns 25 years old on 1 October 2003, is passing through two major transitions, which experts said either could weaken or strengthen the program. On 1 March, a federal government reorganization placed NEHRP's lead agency,the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA),within the new Department of Homeland Security (DHS). A number of earthquake scientists and engineers expressed concern that NEHRP, which already faces budgetary and organizational challenges, and lacks visibility,could end up being marginalized in the bureaucratic shuffle. Some experts, though,as well as agency officials, said they hope DHS will recognize synergies between dealing with earthquakes and terrorist attacks.

  17. Coseismic Stress Changes of the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, Earthquake and Its Implication for Seismic Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, B.; LIU, C.; Xiong, X.

    2017-12-01

    On 13 November 2016, an earthquake with moment magnitude Mw 7.8 stroke North Canterbury, New Zealand as result of shallow oblique-reverse faulting close to boundary between the Pacific and Australian plates in the South Island, collapsing buildings and resulting in significant economic losses. The distribution of early aftershocks extended about 150 km to the north-northeast of the mainshock, suggesting the potential of earthquake triggering in this complex fault system. Strong aftershocks following major earthquakes present significant challenges for locals' reconstruction and rehabilitation. The regions around the mainshock may also suffer from earthquakes triggered by the Kaikoura earthquake. Therefore, it is significantly important to outline the regions with potential aftershocks and high seismic hazard to mitigate future disasters. Moreover, this earthquake ruptured at least 13 separate faults, and provided an opportunity to test the theory of earthquake stress triggering for a complex fault system. In this study, we calculated the coseismic Coulomb Failure Stress changes (ΔCFS) caused by the Kaikoura earthquake on the hypocenters of both historical earthquakes and aftershocks of this event with focal mechanisms. Our results show that the percentage of earthquake with positive ΔCFS within the aftershocks is higher than that of historical earthquakes. It means that the Kaikoura earthquake effectively influence the seismicity in this region. The aftershocks of Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake are mainly located in the regions with positive ΔCFS. The aftershock distributions can be well explained by the coseismic ΔCFS. Furthermore, earthquake-induced ΔCFS on the surrounding active faults was further discussed. The northeastern Alpine fault, the southwest part of North Canterbury Fault, parts of the Marlborough fault system and the southwest ends of the Kapiti-Manawatu faults are significantly stressed by the Kaikoura earthquake. The earthquake-induced stress

  18. 78 FR 8109 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-05

    ....S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Earthquake Studies Advisory Committee (SESAC) serves in an ex... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction...

  19. 75 FR 50749 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-17

    .... In addition, the Chairperson of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Earthquake Studies... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction...

  20. 76 FR 8712 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-15

    ... (USGS) Scientific Earthquake Studies Advisory Committee (SESAC) serves in an ex officio capacity on the... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction...

  1. 75 FR 18787 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-13

    ... (USGS) Scientific Earthquake Studies Advisory Committee (SESAC) serves in an ex-officio capacity on the... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction...

  2. 75 FR 75457 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-03

    ... (USGS) Scientific Earthquake Studies Advisory Committee (SESAC) serves in an ex-officio capacity on the... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction...

  3. 75 FR 8042 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-23

    ... (USGS) Scientific Earthquake Studies Advisory Committee (SESAC) serves in an ex officio capacity on the... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. SUMMARY: The Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction...

  4. Applications of research from the U.S. Geological Survey program, assessment of regional earthquake hazards and risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gori, Paula L.

    1993-01-01

    INTERACTIVE WORKSHOPS: ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF THE EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS RESEARCH AND REDUCTION PROGRAM IN THE WASATCH FRONT, UTAH: Interactive workshops provided the forum and stimulus necessary to foster collaboration among the participants in the multidisciplinary, 5-yr program of earthquake hazards reduction in the Wasatch Front, Utah. The workshop process validated well-documented social science theories on the importance of interpersonal interaction, including interaction between researchers and users of research to increase the probability that research will be relevant to the user's needs and, therefore, more readily used. REDUCING EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS IN UTAH: THE CRUCIAL CONNECTION BETWEEN RESEARCHERS AND PRACTITIONERS: Complex scientific and engineering studies must be translated for and transferred to nontechnical personnel for use in reducing earthquake hazards in Utah. The three elements needed for effective translation, likelihood of occurrence, location, and severity of potential hazards, and the three elements needed for effective transfer, delivery, assistance, and encouragement, are described and illustrated for Utah. The importance of evaluating and revising earthquake hazard reduction programs and their components is emphasized. More than 30 evaluations of various natural hazard reduction programs and techniques are introduced. This report was prepared for research managers, funding sources, and evaluators of the Utah earthquake hazard reduction program who are concerned about effectiveness. An overview of the Utah program is provided for those researchers, engineers, planners, and decisionmakers, both public and private, who are committed to reducing human casualties, property damage, and interruptions of socioeconomic systems. PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EARTHQUAKE MITIGATION POLICIES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT IN UTAH: The earthquake hazard potential along the Wasatch Front in Utah has been well defined by a number of scientific and

  5. Electromagnetic ground-based measuring system used for the near real-time hazard level assessment of the earthquake-induced landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanica, D. A.

    2012-04-01

    In the last decade, the Alpine - Carpathian area was affected by a lot of natural hazard events such as floods and landslides, as a primary consequence of the important climatic changes. The Romanian segment of the Sub-Carpathian chain, these two types of natural events many times got a dramatic character, endangering till now large human communities and also the environment. In the Southern Sub-Carpathian area, the main causes for these phenomena are: the nature of material (flyschoid deposits containing rather soft materials with low mechanic properties), geodynamic context (the existence of Vrancea seismogenic active zone with earthquakes and active tectonics), climate effects leading to huge and irregular precipitation quantity, as well as the anthropic activity. The aim of this paper consists in the implementation of the near-real time electromagnetic ground-based measuring system (EGBMS) and methodology destined to monitor the intermediate Vrancea's earthquakes and associated landslide in a test site placed near by the Provita de Sus locality, Prahova District. Owing to an increasing threat of the landslide in this test site, pre and post seismic landslide models for disaster forecasting are imposed. In this context, the following specific activity stages were accomplished: (i) optimisation of the specific sensor structure in laboratory and field conditions; (ii) experiment and continuous improvement of the EGBMS at the peculiar conditions of the monitored area for pattern recognition; (iii) assessment of the short-term electromagnetic precursory parameters related to both the earthquakes (EQ) occurred at intermediate depth interval, characteristic to the seismic-active Vrancea zone, and the landslides associated, mainly, due to the reactivated faults developed in the Sub-Carpathian area; (iv) elaboration and managing of the datasets available to produce pre and post seismic 2D geophysical models and tomographic images as a first step for the hazard level

  6. 76 FR 18165 - Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-01

    ....S. Geological Survey (USGS) Scientific Earthquake Studies Advisory Committee (SESAC) serves in an ex... Earthquake Hazards Reduction Meeting AGENCY: National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce. ACTION: Notice of open meeting. [[Page 18166

  7. Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast using relationships between submarine landslides and earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Brink, Uri S.; Lee, H.J.; Geist, E.L.; Twichell, D.

    2009-01-01

    Submarine landslides along the continental slope of the U.S. Atlantic margin are potential sources for tsunamis along the U.S. East coast. The magnitude of potential tsunamis depends on the volume and location of the landslides, and tsunami frequency depends on their recurrence interval. However, the size and recurrence interval of submarine landslides along the U.S. Atlantic margin is poorly known. Well-studied landslide-generated tsunamis in other parts of the world have been shown to be associated with earthquakes. Because the size distribution and recurrence interval of earthquakes is generally better known than those for submarine landslides, we propose here to estimate the size and recurrence interval of submarine landslides from the size and recurrence interval of earthquakes in the near vicinity of the said landslides. To do so, we calculate maximum expected landslide size for a given earthquake magnitude, use recurrence interval of earthquakes to estimate recurrence interval of landslide, and assume a threshold landslide size that can generate a destructive tsunami. The maximum expected landslide size for a given earthquake magnitude is calculated in 3 ways: by slope stability analysis for catastrophic slope failure on the Atlantic continental margin, by using land-based compilation of maximum observed distance from earthquake to liquefaction, and by using land-based compilation of maximum observed area of earthquake-induced landslides. We find that the calculated distances and failure areas from the slope stability analysis is similar or slightly smaller than the maximum triggering distances and failure areas in subaerial observations. The results from all three methods compare well with the slope failure observations of the Mw = 7.2, 1929 Grand Banks earthquake, the only historical tsunamigenic earthquake along the North American Atlantic margin. The results further suggest that a Mw = 7.5 earthquake (the largest expected earthquake in the eastern U

  8. Earthquake Hazard and Risk in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apel, E. V.; Nyst, M.; Fitzenz, D. D.; Molas, G.

    2014-12-01

    To quantify risk in New Zealand we examine the impact of updating the seismic hazard model. The previous RMS New Zealand hazard model is based on the 2002 probabilistic seismic hazard maps for New Zealand (Stirling et al., 2002). The 2015 RMS model, based on Stirling et al., (2012) will update several key source parameters. These updates include: implementation a new set of crustal faults including multi-segment ruptures, updating the subduction zone geometry and reccurrence rate and implementing new background rates and a robust methodology for modeling background earthquake sources. The number of crustal faults has increased by over 200 from the 2002 model, to the 2012 model which now includes over 500 individual fault sources. This includes the additions of many offshore faults in northern, east-central, and southwest regions. We also use the recent data to update the source geometry of the Hikurangi subduction zone (Wallace, 2009; Williams et al., 2013). We compare hazard changes in our updated model with those from the previous version. Changes between the two maps are discussed as well as the drivers for these changes. We examine the impact the hazard model changes have on New Zealand earthquake risk. Considered risk metrics include average annual loss, an annualized expected loss level used by insurers to determine the costs of earthquake insurance (and premium levels), and the loss exceedance probability curve used by insurers to address their solvency and manage their portfolio risk. We analyze risk profile changes in areas with large population density and for structures of economic and financial importance. New Zealand is interesting in that the city with the majority of the risk exposure in the country (Auckland) lies in the region of lowest hazard, where we don't have a lot of information about the location of faults and distributed seismicity is modeled by averaged Mw-frequency relationships on area sources. Thus small changes to the background rates

  9. HAZARD RATE ESTIMATION OF TEMPORAL POINT PROCESS CASE STUDY: EARTHQUAKE HAZARD RATE IN NUSATENGGARA REGION

    OpenAIRE

    Sunusi, Nurtiti

    2008-01-01

    Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research, we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estim...

  10. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  11. Seismic hazard assessment: Issues and alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic hazard and risk are two very important concepts in engineering design and other policy considerations. Although seismic hazard and risk have often been used inter-changeably, they are fundamentally different. Furthermore, seismic risk is more important in engineering design and other policy considerations. Seismic hazard assessment is an effort by earth scientists to quantify seismic hazard and its associated uncertainty in time and space and to provide seismic hazard estimates for seismic risk assessment and other applications. Although seismic hazard assessment is more a scientific issue, it deserves special attention because of its significant implication to society. Two approaches, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Although PSHA has been pro-claimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe or overly conservative engineering design or public policy, each of which has dire consequences to society. On the other hand, DSHA is a viable approach for seismic hazard assessment even though it has been labeled as unreliable. The biggest drawback of DSHA is that the temporal characteristics (i.e., earthquake frequency of occurrence and the associated uncertainty) are often neglected. An alternative, seismic hazard analysis (SHA), utilizes earthquake science and statistics directly and provides a seismic hazard estimate that can be readily used for seismic risk assessment and other applications. ?? 2010 Springer Basel AG.

  12. Seismic Hazard characterization study using an earthquake source with Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) method in the Northern of Sumatra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yahya, A.; Palupi, M. I. R.; Suharsono

    2016-01-01

    Sumatra region is one of the earthquake-prone areas in Indonesia because it is lie on an active tectonic zone. In 2004 there is earthquake with a moment magnitude of 9.2 located on the coast with the distance 160 km in the west of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam and triggering a tsunami. These events take a lot of casualties and material losses, especially in the Province of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam and North Sumatra. To minimize the impact of the earthquake disaster, a fundamental assessment of the earthquake hazard in the region is needed. Stages of research include the study of literature, collection and processing of seismic data, seismic source characterization and analysis of earthquake hazard by probabilistic methods (PSHA) used earthquake catalog from 1907 through 2014. The earthquake hazard represented by the value of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) in the period of 0.2 and 1 second on bedrock that is presented in the form of a map with a return period of 2475 years and the earthquake hazard curves for the city of Medan and Banda Aceh. (paper)

  13. Why earthquake hazard maps often fail and what to do about it

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Seth; Geller, Robert J.; Liu, Mian

    2012-08-01

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake is another striking example - after the 2008 Wenchuan and 2010 Haiti earthquakes - of highly destructive earthquakes that occurred in areas predicted by earthquake hazard maps to be relatively safe. Here, we examine what went wrong for Tohoku, and how this failure illustrates limitations of earthquake hazard mapping. We use examples from several seismic regions to show that earthquake occurrence is typically more complicated than the models on which hazard maps are based, and that the available history of seismicity is almost always too short to reliably establish the spatiotemporal pattern of large earthquake occurrence. As a result, key aspects of hazard maps often depend on poorly constrained parameters, whose values are chosen based on the mapmakers' preconceptions. When these are incorrect, maps do poorly. This situation will improve at best slowly, owing to our limited understanding of earthquake processes. However, because hazard mapping has become widely accepted and used to make major decisions, we suggest two changes to improve current practices. First, the uncertainties in hazard map predictions should be assessed and clearly communicated to potential users. Recognizing the uncertainties would enable users to decide how much credence to place in the maps and make them more useful in formulating cost-effective hazard mitigation policies. Second, hazard maps should undergo rigorous and objective testing to compare their predictions to those of null hypotheses, including ones based on uniform regional seismicity or hazard. Such testing, which is common and useful in similar fields, will show how well maps actually work and hopefully help produce measurable improvements. There are likely, however, limits on how well hazard maps can ever be made because of the intrinsic variability of earthquake processes.

  14. Amplification of Earthquake Ground Motions in Washington, DC, and Implications for Hazard Assessments in Central and Eastern North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt, Thomas L.; Horton, J. Wright; Muñoz, Jessica; Hough, Susan E.; Chapman, Martin C.; Olgun, C. Guney

    2017-12-01

    The extent of damage in Washington, DC, from the 2011 Mw 5.8 Mineral, VA, earthquake was surprising for an epicenter 130 km away; U.S. Geological Survey "Did-You-Feel-It" reports suggest that Atlantic Coastal Plain and other unconsolidated sediments amplified ground motions in the city. We measure this amplification relative to bedrock sites using earthquake signals recorded on a temporary seismometer array. The spectral ratios show strong amplification in the 0.7 to 4 Hz frequency range for sites on sediments. This range overlaps with resonant frequencies of buildings in the city as inferred from their heights, suggesting amplification at frequencies to which many buildings are vulnerable to damage. Our results emphasize that local amplification can raise moderate ground motions to damaging levels in stable continental regions, where low attenuation extends shaking levels over wide areas and unconsolidated deposits on crystalline metamorphic or igneous bedrock can result in strong contrasts in near-surface material properties.

  15. The Great 1787 Earthquake (M 8.6) and Tsunami along The Mexican Subduction Zone - History, Geology and Tsunami Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Lagos, M.; Goguitchaichvili, A.; Machain-Castillo, M. L.; Caballero, M.; Ruiz-Fernandez, A. C.; Suarez, G.; Ortuño, M.

    2017-12-01

    The 1787 great earthquake (M 8.6) triggered a deadly tsunami that poured over the coast of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Chiapas, along more than 500 km of the Mexican Pacific coast and up to 6 km inland. This tsunami, according with historical documents, destroyed mostly farmlands and livestock, and damaged few villages since the density of population was sparse at the time. We report first on geological evidence from the Corralero lagoon and adjacent coastal plain that seem in agreement with historical accounts. The deposit left by the 1787 tsunami can be traced along a transect of cores and test pits from the coastline and up to 1.6 km inland. The test pits showed an anomalous sand layer that was deposited in a single event in the swales of a series of beach ridges. The anomalous layer is almost continuous along the transect, about a 1000 m-long, and is formed of coarse to medium sand, at variable depths, with variable thickness, and pinching up with the distance from the coastline. We used stratigraphy, grain size, microfossils (foraminifera and diatoms), magnetic susceptibility and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility proxies to reveal the nature of this anomalous sand layer. Stratigraphy, abrupt contacts, and magnetic properties support a sudden and rapid event, consisting of sands transported most probably by an extreme sea-wave far inland. Furthermore, based on the accounts of the 1787 earthquake (M 8.6) and tsunami, and estimates from 210Pb sedimentation rates, we suggest that this is the tsunami deposit left by the 1787 event. Tsunami modeling will further enhance the hazard and risk assessment of this area in Mexico.

  16. Deviant Earthquakes: Data-driven Constraints on the Variability in Earthquake Source Properties and Seismic Hazard

    OpenAIRE

    Trugman, Daniel T

    2017-01-01

    The complexity of the earthquake rupture process makes earthquakes inherently unpredictable. Seismic hazard forecasts often presume that the rate of earthquake occurrence can be adequately modeled as a space-time homogenenous or stationary Poisson process and that the relation between the dynamical source properties of small and large earthquakes obey self-similar scaling relations. While these simplified models provide useful approximations and encapsulate the first-order statistical feature...

  17. Offsite transportation hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burnside, M.E.

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the emergency preparedness Hazards Assessment for the offsite transportation of hazardous material from the Hanford Site. The assessment is required by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 151.1. Offsite transportation accidents are categorized using the DOE system to assist communication within the DOE and assure that appropriate assistance is provided to the people in charge at the scene. The assistance will initially include information about the load and the potential hazards. Local authorities will use the information to protect the public following a transportation accident. This Hazards Assessment will focus on the material being transported from the Hanford Site. Shipments coming to Hanford are the responsibility of the shipper and the carrier and, therefore, are not included in this Hazards Assessment, unless the DOE elects to be the shipper of record

  18. Geotechnical hazards from large earthquakes and heavy rainfalls

    CERN Document Server

    Kazama, Motoki; Lee, Wei

    2017-01-01

    This book is a collection of papers presented at the International Workshop on Geotechnical Natural Hazards held July 12–15, 2014, in Kitakyushu, Japan. The workshop was the sixth in the series of Japan–Taiwan Joint Workshops on Geotechnical Hazards from Large Earthquakes and Heavy Rainfalls, held under the auspices of the Asian Technical Committee No. 3 on Geotechnology for Natural Hazards of the International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering. It was co-organized by the Japanese Geotechnical Society and the Taiwanese Geotechnical Society. The contents of this book focus on geotechnical and natural hazard-related issues in Asia such as earthquakes, tsunami, rainfall-induced debris flows, slope failures, and landslides. The book contains the latest information and mitigation technology on earthquake- and rainfall-induced geotechnical natural hazards. By dissemination of the latest state-of-the-art research in the area, the information contained in this book will help researchers, des...

  19. Slope instabilities triggered by the 2011 Lorca earthquake (M{sub w} 5.1): a comparison and revision of hazard assessments of earthquake-triggered landslides in Murcia; Inestabilidades de ladera provocadas por el terremoto de Lorca de 2011 (Mw 5,1): comparacion y revision de estudios de peligrosidad de movimientos de ladera por efecto sismico en Murcia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez-Peces, M. J.; Garcia-Mayordomo, J.; Martinez-Diaz, J. J.; Tsige, M.

    2012-11-01

    The Lorca basin has been the object of recent research aimed at studying the phenomenon of earthquake induced landslides and their assessment within the context of different seismic scenarios, bearing in mind the influence of soil and topographical amplification effects. Nevertheless, it was not until the Lorca earthquakes of 11 May 2011 that it became possible to adopt a systematic approach to the problem. We provide here an inventory of slope instabilities triggered by the Lorca earthquakes comprising 100 cases, mainly small rock and soil falls (1 to 100 m{sup 3}). The distribution of these instabilities is compared to two different earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps: one considering the occurrence of the most probable earthquake for a 475-yr return period in the Lorca basin (M{sub w} = 5.0), which was previously published on the basis of a low-resolution digital elevation model (DEM), and a second one matching the occurrence of the M{sub w} = 5.1 2011 Lorca earthquake, which was undertaken using a higher resolution DEM. The most frequent Newmark displacement values related to the slope failures triggered by the 2011 Lorca earthquakes are smaller than 2 cm in both hazard scenarios and coincide with areas where significant soil and topographical seismic amplification effects have occurred.

  20. Seismic hazard assessment of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ghafory-Ashtiany

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the historical earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity and seismic source models in Iran. These maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Iran in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines, and seismic hazard zoning, by using current probabilistic procedures. They display the probabilistic estimates of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA for the return periods of 75 and 475 years. The maps have been divided into intervals of 0.25 degrees in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions to calculate the peak ground acceleration values at each grid point and draw the seismic hazard curves. The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of seismic risk maps, the estimation of earthquake insurance premiums, and the preliminary site evaluation of critical facilities.

  1. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-01-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  2. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Ju Wang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM was established to assess the seismic hazard and risk for Taiwan by considering the social and economic impacts of various components from geology, seismology, and engineering. This paper gives the first version of TEM probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Taiwan in these aspects. We named it TEM PSHA2015. The model adopts the source parameters of 38 seismogenic structures identified by TEM geologists. In addition to specific fault source-based categorization, seismic activities are categorized as shallow, subduction intraplate, and subduction interplate events. To evaluate the potential ground-shaking resulting from each seismic source, the corresponding ground-motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes are adopted. The highest hazard probability is evaluated to be in Southwestern Taiwan and the Longitudinal Valley of Eastern Taiwan. Among the special municipalities in the highly populated Western Taiwan region, Taichung, Tainan, and New Taipei City are evaluated to have the highest hazard. Tainan has the highest seismic hazard for peak ground acceleration in the model based on TEM fault parameters. In terms of pseudo-spectral acceleration, Tainan has higher hazard over short spectral periods, whereas Taichung has higher hazard over long spectral periods. The analysis indicates the importance of earthquake-resistant designs for low-rise buildings in Tainan and high-rise buildings in Taichung.

  3. The earthquake of January 13, 1915 and the seismic hazard of the area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarascia Mugnozza, Gabriele; Hailemikael, Salomon; Martini, Guido

    2015-01-01

    The January 13, 1915, magnitude 7.0 Marsica Earthquake devastated the Fucino basin and surroundings, causing about 30,000 casualties and entirely destroying several towns, among which the major municipality of the area, the town of Avezzano. In this paper, we briefly review the main characteristics of the earthquake and its effects on the environment. Furthermore, based on the Italian building code and ongoing seismic microzonation investigations, we describe the seismic hazard of the area struck by the earthquake in terms of both probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and contribution of site effects on the seismic hazard estimate. All the studies confirm the very high level of seismic hazard of the Fucino territory [it

  4. Roaming earthquakes in China highlight midcontinental hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Mian; Wang, Hui

    2012-11-01

    Before dawn on 28 July 1976, a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake struck Tangshan, a Chinese industrial city only 150 kilometers from Beijing (Figure 1a). In a brief moment, the earthquake destroyed the entire city and killed more than 242,000 people [Chen et al., 1988]. More than 30 years have passed, and upon the ruins a new Tangshan city has been built. However, the memory of devastation remains fresh. For this reason, a sequence of recent small earthquakes in the Tangshan region, including an M 4.8 event on 28 May and an M 4.0 event on 18 June 2012, has caused widespread concerns and heated debate in China. In the science community, the debate is whether the recent Tangshan earthquakes are the aftershocks of the 1976 earthquake despite the long gap in time since the main shock or harbingers of a new period of active seismicity in Tangshan and the rest of North China, where seismic activity seems to fluctuate between highs and lows over periods of a few decades [Ma, 1989].

  5. Mitigation of earthquake hazards using seismic isolation systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, C.-Y.

    1996-06-01

    This paper describes mitigation of earthquake hazards using seismic base isolation systems. A numerical algorithm for analyzing system response of base-isolated structures with laminated elastomer bearings is briefly described. Seismic response analyses of both base- isolated and unisolated buildings under earthquakes {number_sign}42 and {number_sign}44 are performed and the results are compared to illustrate the mitigating effect of base-isolated systems.

  6. Composite Earthquake Catalog of the Yellow Sea for Seismic Hazard Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, S. Y.; Kim, K. H.; LI, Z.; Hao, T.

    2017-12-01

    information in the Yellow Sea composite earthquake catalog (YComCat). Since earthquake catalog plays critical role in the seismic hazard assessment, YComCat provides improved input to reduce uncertainties in the seismic hazard estimations.

  7. Onsite transportation hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burnside, M.E.

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the emergency preparedness Hazards Assessment for the onsite transportation of hazardous material at the Hanford Site. The assessment is required by US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 5500.3A and provides the technical basis for the emergency classification and response procedures. A distinction is made between onsite for the purpose of emergency preparedness and onsite for the purpose of applying US Department of Transportation (DOT) regulations. Onsite for the purpose of emergency preparedness is considered to be within the physical boundary of the entire Hanford Site. Onsite for the purpose of applying DOT regulations is north of the Wye Barricade

  8. Hazard assessment for Romania–Bulgaria crossborder region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stela; Alexandrova, Irena; Trifonova, Petya; Ardeleanu, Luminita; Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-01-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are steadily increasing as urbanisation and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The assessment of the seismic hazard is particularly important, because it provides valuable information for seismic safety and disaster mitigation, and it supports decision making for the benefit of society. The main objective of this study is to assess the seismic hazard for Romania-Bulgaria cross-border region on the basis of integrated basic geo-datasets

  9. Probabilistic Earthquake-Tsunami Multi-Hazard Analysis: Application to the Tohoku Region, Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele De Risi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a novel simulation-based procedure for the estimation of the likelihood that seismic intensity (in terms of spectral acceleration and tsunami inundation (in terms of wave height, at a particular location, will exceed given hazard levels. The procedure accounts for a common physical rupture process for shaking and tsunami. Numerous realizations of stochastic slip distributions of earthquakes having different magnitudes are generated using scaling relationships of source parameters for subduction zones and then using a stochastic synthesis method of earthquake slip distribution. Probabilistic characterization of earthquake and tsunami intensity parameters is carried out by evaluating spatially correlated strong motion intensity through the adoption of ground motion prediction equations as a function of magnitude and shortest distance from the rupture plane and by solving nonlinear shallow water equations for tsunami wave propagation and inundation. The minimum number of simulations required to obtain stable estimates of seismic and tsunami intensity measures is investigated through a statistical bootstrap analysis. The main output of the proposed procedure is the earthquake-tsunami hazard curves representing, for each mean annual rate of occurrence, the corresponding seismic and inundation tsunami intensity measures. This simulation-based procedure facilitates the earthquake-tsunami hazard deaggregation with respect to magnitude and distance. Results are particularly useful for multi-hazard mapping purposes and the developed framework can be further extended to probabilistic earthquake-tsunami risk assessment.

  10. Assessing storm erosion hazards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Callaghan, D.; Ciavola, Paolo; Coco, Giovanni

    2017-01-01

    The storm erosion hazard on coasts is usually expressed as an erosion volume and/or associated episodic coastline retreat. The accurate assessment of present-day and future storm erosion volumes is a key task for coastal zone managers, planners and engineers. There are four main approaches that can

  11. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahid Ullah

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Central Asia is one of the seismically most active regions in the world. Its complex seismicity due to the collision of the Eurasian and Indian plates has resulted in some of the world’s largest intra-plate events over history. The region is dominated by reverse faulting over strike slip and normal faulting events. The GSHAP project (1999, aiming at a hazard assessment on a global scale, indicated that the region of Central Asia is characterized by peak ground accelerations for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years as high as 9 m/s2. In this study, carried out within the framework of the EMCA project (Earthquake Model Central Asia, the area source model and different kernel approaches are used for a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA for Central Asia. The seismic hazard is assessed considering shallow (depth < 50 km seismicity only and employs an updated (with respect to previous projects earthquake catalog for the region. The seismic hazard is calculated in terms of macroseismic intensity (MSK-64, intended to be used for the seismic risk maps of the region. The hazard maps, shown in terms of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, are derived by using the OpenQuake software [Pagani et al. 2014], which is an open source software tool developed by the GEM (Global Earthquake Model foundation. The maximum hazard observed in the region reaches an intensity of around 8 in southern Tien Shan for 475 years mean return period. The maximum hazard estimated for some of the cities in the region, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Tashkent and Almaty, is between 7 and 8 (7-8, 8.0, 7.0 and 8.0 macroseismic Intensity, respectively, for 475 years mean return period, using different approaches. The results of different methods for assessing the level of seismic hazard are compared and their underlying methodologies are discussed.

  12. PAGER--Rapid assessment of an earthquake?s impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, D.J.; Jaiswal, K.; Marano, K.D.; Bausch, D.; Hearne, M.

    2010-01-01

    PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system that produces content concerning the impact of significant earthquakes around the world, informing emergency responders, government and aid agencies, and the media of the scope of the potential disaster. PAGER rapidly assesses earthquake impacts by comparing the population exposed to each level of shaking intensity with models of economic and fatality losses based on past earthquakes in each country or region of the world. Earthquake alerts--which were formerly sent based only on event magnitude and location, or population exposure to shaking--now will also be generated based on the estimated range of fatalities and economic losses.

  13. Earthquake Hazard Analysis Use Vs30 Data In Palu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusydi, Muhammad; Efendi, Rustan; Sandra; Rahmawati

    2018-03-01

    Palu City is an area passed by Palu-Koro fault and some small faults around it, causing the Palu of city often hit by earthquake. Therefore, this study is intended to mapped the earthquake hazard zones. Determination of this zone is one of aspect that can be used to reducing risk of earthquake disaster. This research was conducted by integrating Vs30 data from USGS with Vs30 from mikrotremor data. Vs30 data from microtremor used to correction Vs30 from USGS. This Results are then used to determine PeakGround Acceleration (PGA) can be used to calculate the impact of earthquake disaster. Results of the study shows that Palu City is in high danger class. Eight sub-districts in Palu City, there are 7 sub-districts that have high danger level, namely Palu Barat, PaluTimur, Palu Selatan, Palu Utara, Tatanga, Mantikulore and Tawaeli.

  14. Tank farms hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broz, R.E.

    1994-01-01

    Hanford contractors are writing new facility specific emergency procedures in response to new and revised US Department of Energy (DOE) Orders on emergency preparedness. Emergency procedures are required for each Hanford facility that has the potential to exceed the criteria for the lowest level emergency, an Alert. The set includes: (1) a facility specific procedure on Recognition and Classification of Emergencies, (2) area procedures on Initial Emergency Response and, (3) an area procedure on Protective Action Guidance. The first steps in developing these procedures are to identify the hazards at each facility, identify the conditions that could release the hazardous material, and calculate the consequences of the releases. These steps are called a Hazards Assessment. The final product is a document that is similar in some respects to a Safety Analysis Report (SAR). The document could br produced in a month for a simple facility but could take much longer for a complex facility. Hanford has both types of facilities. A strategy has been adopted to permit completion of the first version of the new emergency procedures before all the facility hazards Assessments are complete. The procedures will initially be based on input from a task group for each facility. This strategy will but improved emergency procedures in place sooner and therefore enhance Hanford emergency preparedness. The purpose of this document is to summarize the applicable information contained within the Waste Tank Facility ''Interim Safety Basis Document, WHC-SD-WM-ISB-001'' as a resource, since the SARs covering Waste Tank Operations are not current in all cases. This hazards assessment serves to collect, organize, document and present the information utilized during the determination process

  15. PUREX facility hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutton, L.N.

    1994-01-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Plutonium Uranium Extraction Plant (PUREX) located on the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site. Operation of PUREX is the responsibility of Westinghouse Hanford Company (WHC). This hazards assessment was conducted to provide the emergency planning technical basis for PUREX. DOE Order 5500.3A requires an emergency planning hazards assessment for each facility that has the potential to reach or exceed the lowest level emergency classification. In October of 1990, WHC was directed to place PUREX in standby. In December of 1992 the DOE Assistant Secretary for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management authorized the termination of PUREX and directed DOE-RL to proceed with shutdown planning and terminal clean out activities. Prior to this action, its mission was to reprocess irradiated fuels for the recovery of uranium and plutonium. The present mission is to establish a passively safe and environmentally secure configuration at the PUREX facility and to preserve that condition for 10 years. The ten year time frame represents the typical duration expended to define, authorize and initiate follow-on decommissioning and decontamination activities

  16. The wicked problem of earthquake hazard in developing countries: the example of Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steckler, M. S.; Akhter, S. H.; Stein, S.; Seeber, L.

    2017-12-01

    Many developing nations in earthquake-prone areas confront a tough problem: how much of their limited resources to use mitigating earthquake hazards? This decision is difficult because it is unclear when an infrequent major earthquake may happen, how big it could be, and how much harm it may cause. This issue faces nations with profound immediate needs and ongoing rapid urbanization. Earthquake hazard mitigation in Bangladesh is a wicked problem. It is the world's most densely populated nation, with 160 million people in an area the size of Iowa. Complex geology and sparse data make assessing a possibly-large earthquake hazard difficult. Hence it is hard to decide how much of the limited resources available should be used for earthquake hazard mitigation, given other more immediate needs. Per capita GDP is $1200, so Bangladesh is committed to economic growth and resources are needed to address many critical challenges and hazards. In their subtropical environment, rural Bangladeshis traditionally relied on modest mud or bamboo homes. Their rapidly growing, crowded capital, Dhaka, is filled with multistory concrete buildings likely to be vulnerable to earthquakes. The risk is compounded by the potential collapse of services and accessibility after a major temblor. However, extensive construction as the population shifts from rural to urban provides opportunity for earthquake-risk reduction. While this situation seems daunting, it is not hopeless. Robust risk management is practical, even for developing nations. It involves recognizing uncertainties and developing policies that should give a reasonable outcome for a range of the possible hazard and loss scenarios. Over decades, Bangladesh has achieved a thousandfold reduction in risk from tropical cyclones by building shelters and setting up a warning system. Similar efforts are underway for earthquakes. Smart investments can be very effective, even if modest. Hence, we suggest strategies consistent with high

  17. Geophysical variables and behavior: LX. Lonquimay and Alhué, Chile: tension from volcanic and earthquake hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larraín, P; Simpson-Housley, P

    1990-02-01

    This study assesses the effect of trait anxiety scores on subjects' responses to volcanic eruption hazard and earthquake hazard in Lonquimay and Alhué, respectively. Lonquimay is located in the southern Chilean Andes and Alhué is located in central Chile in the Coastal Range. The former was afflicted by a volcanic eruption which commenced on Christmas Day 1988 and the latter by an earthquake on March 3, 1985. Expectations of high damage and fear from a radio hazard prediction were associated with high trait-anxiety scores in the Alhué sample while positive adjustments to extenuate the hazard effect reached significance for the Lonquimay sample.

  18. EFEHR - the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk: beyond the web-platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danciu, Laurentiu; Wiemer, Stefan; Haslinger, Florian; Kastli, Philipp; Giardini, Domenico

    2017-04-01

    European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (EEFEHR) represents the sustainable community resource for seismic hazard and risk in Europe. The EFEHR web platform is the main gateway to access data, models and tools as well as provide expertise relevant for assessment of seismic hazard and risk. The main services (databases and web-platform) are hosted at ETH Zurich and operated by the Swiss Seismological Service (Schweizerischer Erdbebendienst SED). EFEHR web-portal (www.efehr.org) collects and displays (i) harmonized datasets necessary for hazard and risk modeling, e.g. seismic catalogues, fault compilations, site amplifications, vulnerabilities, inventories; (ii) extensive seismic hazard products, namely hazard curves, uniform hazard spectra and maps for national and regional assessments. (ii) standardized configuration files for re-computing the regional seismic hazard models; (iv) relevant documentation of harmonized datasets, models and web-services. Today, EFEHR distributes full output of the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model, ESHM13, as developed within the SHARE project (http://www.share-eu.org/); the latest results of the 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME14), derived within the EMME Project (www.emme-gem.org); the 2001 Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP) results and the 2015 updates of the Swiss Seismic Hazard. New datasets related to either seismic hazard or risk will be incorporated as they become available. We present the currents status of the EFEHR platform, with focus on the challenges, summaries of the up-to-date datasets, user experience and feedback, as well as the roadmap to future technological innovation beyond the web-platform development. We also show the new services foreseen to fully integrate with the seismological core services of European Plate Observing System (EPOS).

  19. Mitigation of earthquake hazards using seismic base isolation systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, C.Y.

    1994-06-01

    This paper deals with mitigation of earthquake hazards using seismic base-isolation systems. A numerical algorithm is described for system response analysis of isolated structures with laminated elastomer bearings. The focus of this paper is on the adaptation of a nonlinear constitutive equation for the isolation bearing, and the treatment of foundation embedment for the soil-structure-interaction analysis. Sample problems are presented to illustrate the mitigating effect of using base-isolation systems.

  20. Integrating Real-time Earthquakes into Natural Hazard Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlong, K. P.; Benz, H. M.; Whitlock, J. S.; Bittenbinder, A. N.; Bogaert, B. B.

    2001-12-01

    Natural hazard courses are playing an increasingly important role in college and university earth science curricula. Students' intrinsic curiosity about the subject and the potential to make the course relevant to the interests of both science and non-science students make natural hazards courses popular additions to a department's offerings. However, one vital aspect of "real-life" natural hazard management that has not translated well into the classroom is the real-time nature of both events and response. The lack of a way to entrain students into the event/response mode has made implementing such real-time activities into classroom activities problematic. Although a variety of web sites provide near real-time postings of natural hazards, students essentially learn of the event after the fact. This is particularly true for earthquakes and other events with few precursors. As a result, the "time factor" and personal responsibility associated with natural hazard response is lost to the students. We have integrated the real-time aspects of earthquake response into two natural hazard courses at Penn State (a 'general education' course for non-science majors, and an upper-level course for science majors) by implementing a modification of the USGS Earthworm system. The Earthworm Database Management System (E-DBMS) catalogs current global seismic activity. It provides earthquake professionals with real-time email/cell phone alerts of global seismic activity and access to the data for review/revision purposes. We have modified this system so that real-time response can be used to address specific scientific, policy, and social questions in our classes. As a prototype of using the E-DBMS in courses, we have established an Earthworm server at Penn State. This server receives national and global seismic network data and, in turn, transmits the tailored alerts to "on-duty" students (e-mail, pager/cell phone notification). These students are responsible to react to the alarm

  1. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Point Lepreau Generating Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullin, D. [New Brunswick Power Corp., Point Lepreau Generating Station, Lepreau, New Brunswick (Canada); Lavine, A. [AMEC Foster Wheeler Environment and Infrastructure Americas, Oakland, California (United States); Egan, J. [SAGE Engineers, Oakland, California (United States)

    2015-09-15

    A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) has been performed for the Point Lepreau Generating Station (PLGS). The objective is to provide characterization of the earthquake ground shaking that will be used to evaluate seismic safety. The assessment is based on the current state of knowledge of the informed scientific and engineering community regarding earthquake hazards in the site region, and includes two primary components-a seismic source model and a ground motion model. This paper provides the methodology and results of the PLGS PSHA. The implications of the updated hazard information for site safety are discussed in a separate paper. (author)

  2. Awareness and understanding of earthquake hazards at school

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraò, Angela; Peruzza, Laura; Barnaba, Carla; Bragato, Pier Luigi

    2014-05-01

    Schools have a fundamental role in broadening the understanding of natural hazard and risks and in building the awareness in the community. Recent earthquakes in Italy and worldwide, have clearly demonstrated that the poor perception of seismic hazards diminishes the effectiveness of mitigation countermeasures. Since years the Seismology's department of OGS is involved in education projects and public activities to raise awareness about earthquakes. Working together with teachers we aim at developing age-appropriate curricula to improve the student's knowledge about earthquakes, seismic safety, and seismic risk reduction. Some examples of education activities we performed during the last years are here presented. We show our experience with the primary and intermediate schools where, through hands-on activities, we explain the earthquake phenomenon and its effects to kids, but we illustrate also some teaching interventions for high school students. During the past years we lectured classes, we led laboratory and field activities, and we organized summer stages for selected students. In the current year we are leading a project aimed at training high school students on seismic safety through a multidisciplinary approach that involves seismologists, engineers and experts of safety procedures. To combine the objective of dissemination of earthquake culture, also through the knowledge of the past seismicity, with that of a safety culture, we use innovative educational techniques and multimedia resources. Students and teachers, under the guidance of an expert seismologist, organize a combination of hands-on activities for understanding earthquakes in the lab through cheap tools and instrumentations At selected schools we provided the low cost seismometers of the QuakeCatcher network (http://qcn.stanford.edu) for recording earthquakes, and we trained teachers to use such instruments in the lab and to analyze recorded data. Within the same project we are going to train

  3. Toward uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Shi, X.; Ornthammarath, T.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Thant, M.; Nguyen, P. H.; Nguyen, L. M.; Solidum, R., Jr.; Irsyam, M.; Hidayati, S.; Sieh, K.

    2017-12-01

    Although most Southeast Asian countries have seismic hazard maps, various methodologies and quality result in appreciable mismatches at national boundaries. We aim to conduct a uniform assessment across the region by through standardized earthquake and fault databases, ground-shaking scenarios, and regional hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters obtained from global and national seismic networks, harmonized by removal of duplicate events and the use of moment magnitude. Our active-fault database includes fault parameters from previous studies and from the databases implemented for national seismic hazard maps. Another crucial input for seismic hazard assessment is proper evaluation of ground-shaking attenuation. Since few ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have used local observations from this region, we evaluated attenuation by comparison of instrumental observations and felt intensities for recent earthquakes with predicted ground shaking from published GMPEs. We then utilize the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions into our seismic hazard assessments. Based on the database and proper GMPEs, we have constructed regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. The assessment shows highest seismic hazard levels near those faults with high slip rates, including the Sagaing Fault in central Myanmar, the Sumatran Fault in Sumatra, the Palu-Koro, Matano and Lawanopo Faults in Sulawesi, and the Philippine Fault across several islands of the Philippines. In addition, our assessment demonstrates the important fact that regions with low earthquake probability may well have a higher aggregate probability of future earthquakes, since they encompass much larger areas than the areas of high probability. The significant irony then is that in areas of low to moderate probability, where building codes are usually to provide less seismic resilience, seismic risk is likely to be greater. Infrastructural damage in East Malaysia during the 2015

  4. Seismic hazard assessment of the Hanford region, Eastern Washington State

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youngs, R.R.; Coppersmith, K.J.; Power, M.S.; Swan, F.H. III

    1985-01-01

    A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was made for a site within the Hanford region of eastern Washington state, which is characterized as an intraplate region having a relatively low rate of seismic activity. Probabilistic procedures, such as logic trees, were utilized to account for the uncertainties in identifying and characterizing the potential seismic sources in the region. Logic trees provide a convenient, flexible means of assessing the values and relative likelihoods of input parameters to the hazard model that may be dependent upon each other. Uncertainties accounted for in this way include the tectonic model, segmentation, capability, fault geometry, maximum earthquake magnitude, and earthquake recurrence rate. The computed hazard results are expressed as a distribution from which confidence levels are assessed. Analysis of the results show the contributions to the total hazard from various seismic sources and due to various earthquake magnitudes. In addition, the contributions of uncertainties in the various source parameters to the uncertainty in the computed hazard are assessed. For this study, the major contribution to uncertainty in the computed hazard are due to uncertainties in the applicable tectonic model and the earthquake recurrence rate. This analysis serves to illustrate some of the probabilistic tools that are available for conducting seismic hazard assessments and for analyzing the results of these studies. 5 references, 7 figures

  5. Earthquake Rate Models for Evolving Induced Seismicity Hazard in the Central and Eastern US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; Michael, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Injection-induced earthquake rates can vary rapidly in space and time, which presents significant challenges to traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodologies that are based on a time-independent model of mainshock occurrence. To help society cope with rapidly evolving seismicity, the USGS is developing one-year hazard models for areas of induced seismicity in the central and eastern US to forecast the shaking due to all earthquakes, including aftershocks which are generally omitted from hazards assessments (Petersen et al., 2015). However, the spatial and temporal variability of the earthquake rates make them difficult to forecast even on time-scales as short as one year. An initial approach is to use the previous year's seismicity rate to forecast the next year's seismicity rate. However, in places such as northern Oklahoma the rates vary so rapidly over time that a simple linear extrapolation does not accurately forecast the future, even when the variability in the rates is modeled with simulations based on an Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model (Ogata, JASA, 1988) to account for earthquake clustering. Instead of relying on a fixed time period for rate estimation, we explore another way to determine when the earthquake rate should be updated. This approach could also objectively identify new areas where the induced seismicity hazard model should be applied. We will estimate the background seismicity rate by optimizing a single set of ETAS aftershock triggering parameters across the most active induced seismicity zones -- Oklahoma, Guy-Greenbrier, the Raton Basin, and the Azle-Dallas-Fort Worth area -- with individual background rate parameters in each zone. The full seismicity rate, with uncertainties, can then be estimated using ETAS simulations and changes in rate can be detected by applying change point analysis in ETAS transformed time with methods already developed for Poisson processes.

  6. How Can Museum Exhibits Enhance Earthquake and Tsunami Hazard Resiliency?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olds, S. E.

    2015-12-01

    Creating a natural disaster-ready community requires interoperating scientific, technical, and social systems. In addition to the technical elements that need to be in place, communities and individuals need to be prepared to react when a natural hazard event occurs. Natural hazard awareness and preparedness training and education often takes place through informal learning at science centers and formal k-12 education programs as well as through awareness raising via strategically placed informational tsunami warning signs and placards. Museums and science centers are influential in raising science literacy within a community, however can science centers enhance earthquake and tsunami resiliency by providing hazard science content and preparedness exhibits? Museum docents and informal educators are uniquely situated within the community. They are transmitters and translators of science information to broad audiences. Through interaction with the public, docents are well positioned to be informants of the knowledge beliefs, and feelings of science center visitors. They themselves are life-long learners, both constantly learning from the museum content around them and sharing this content with visitors. They are also members of a community where they live. In-depth interviews with museum informal educators and docents were conducted at a science center in coastal Pacific Northwest. This region has a potential to be struck by a great 9+ Mw earthquake and subsequent tsunami. During the interviews, docents described how they applied learning from natural hazard exhibits at a science visitor center to their daily lives. During the individual interviews, the museum docents described their awareness (knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors) of natural hazards where they live and work, the feelings evoked as they learned about their hazard vulnerability, the extent to which they applied this learning and awareness to their lives, such as creating an evacuation plan, whether

  7. Historical cities and earthquakes: Florence during the last nine centuries and evaluations of seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ferrari

    1995-06-01

    Full Text Available The authors' aim in the following study is to contribute to the assessment of the seismic hazard of historical cities. From this preliminary analysis the general characteristics of the seismicity affecting Florence and the evaluation of its seismic hazard may be deduced. Florence is a <> city of world tourism, and its extraordinary artistic value and its ability to be utilized constitute a great economic resource. From this perspective, the authors have tackled some aspects of its urban features (demography and main building types, successive phases in the growth of the city, etc., aimed at the pooling of information as a basis for further, more specific analyses of seismic risk. The study is based on a review of 131 seismic events of potential interest for the site of Florence from the 12th century. In the case of each of these earthquakes, it was possible to verify the real seismic effects sustained, and thus to assess the seismic intensity on the site. This also enabled the limits in the application of the standard attenuation laws of to be checked. Of all the earthquakes analyzed. those which caused the greatest effects on the urban area have also been identified: namely, the earthquake of 28 September 1453. and those of 18 May and 6 June 1895, both with Io=VIII MCS. From their overall analysis the authors have further extrapolated the necessary data to statistically evaluate the probabilities of any future earthquake occurring, according to intensity classes.

  8. Probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis at liquefied sites of 1956 Dunaharaszti earthquake, in Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Győri, Erzsébet; Gráczer, Zoltán; Tóth, László; Bán, Zoltán; Horváth, Tibor

    2017-04-01

    Liquefaction potential evaluations are generally made to assess the hazard from specific scenario earthquakes. These evaluations may estimate the potential in a binary fashion (yes/no), define a factor of safety or predict the probability of liquefaction given a scenario event. Usually the level of ground shaking is obtained from the results of PSHA. Although it is determined probabilistically, a single level of ground shaking is selected and used within the liquefaction potential evaluation. In contrary, the fully probabilistic liquefaction potential assessment methods provide a complete picture of liquefaction hazard, namely taking into account the joint probability distribution of PGA and magnitude of earthquake scenarios; both of which are key inputs in the stress-based simplified methods. Kramer and Mayfield (2007) has developed a fully probabilistic liquefaction potential evaluation method using a performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. The results of the procedure are the direct estimate of the return period of liquefaction and the liquefaction hazard curves in function of depth. The method combines the disaggregation matrices computed for different exceedance frequencies during probabilistic seismic hazard analysis with one of the recent models for the conditional probability of liquefaction. We have developed a software for the assessment of performance-based liquefaction triggering on the basis of Kramer and Mayfield method. Originally the SPT based probabilistic method of Cetin et al. (2004) was built-in into the procedure of Kramer and Mayfield to compute the conditional probability however there is no professional consensus about its applicability. Therefore we have included not only Cetin's method but Idriss and Boulanger (2012) SPT based moreover Boulanger and Idriss (2014) CPT based procedures into our computer program. In 1956, a damaging earthquake of magnitude 5.6 occurred in Dunaharaszti, in Hungary. Its epicenter was located

  9. Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Earle, Paul S.; Porter, Keith A.; Hearne, Mike

    2011-01-01

    Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.

  10. Salient beliefs about earthquake hazards and household preparedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Julia S; Paton, Douglas; Johnston, David M; Ronan, Kevin R

    2013-09-01

    Prior research has found little or no direct link between beliefs about earthquake risk and household preparedness. Furthermore, only limited work has been conducted on how people's beliefs influence the nature and number of preparedness measures adopted. To address this gap, 48 qualitative interviews were undertaken with residents in three urban locations in New Zealand subject to seismic risk. The study aimed to identify the diverse hazard and preparedness-related beliefs people hold and to articulate how these are influenced by public education to encourage preparedness. The study also explored how beliefs and competencies at personal, social, and environmental levels interact to influence people's risk management choices. Three main categories of beliefs were found: hazard beliefs; preparedness beliefs; and personal beliefs. Several salient beliefs found previously to influence the preparedness process were confirmed by this study, including beliefs related to earthquakes being an inevitable and imminent threat, self-efficacy, outcome expectancy, personal responsibility, responsibility for others, and beliefs related to denial, fatalism, normalization bias, and optimistic bias. New salient beliefs were also identified (e.g., preparedness being a "way of life"), as well as insight into how some of these beliefs interact within the wider informational and societal context. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    and to substitute with less toxic compounds. Actually, if exposure is constant across product class, producersmay make substitution decisions based on hazard. Hazard classification is also useful during major accidents where there is no time for risk assessment and the exposure is likely to be substantial enough......The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...... to be a risk. A hazard does not necessarily constitute a risk, as efforts can be done to minimize risk by reducing the exposure. Thus, the relationship between hazard and risk must be treated cautiously. Fora robust risk assessment good data on exposure to the substance is needed and exposure data for other...

  12. Reducing Vulnerability of Ports and Harbors to Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Good, James W.; Goodwin, Robert F.

    2002-01-01

    Recent scientific research suggests the Pacific Northwest could experience catastrophic earthquakes in the near future, both from distant and local sources, posing a significant threat to coastal communities. Damage could result from numerous earthquake-related hazards, such as severe ground shaking, soil liquefaction, landslides, land subsidence/uplift, and tsunami inundation. Because of their geographic location, ports and harbors are especially vulnerable to these hazards. Ports and harbors, however, are important components of many coastal communities, supporting numerous activities critical to the local and regional economy and possibly serving as vital post-event, response-recovery transportation links. A collaborative, multi-year initiative is underway to increase the resiliency of Pacific Northwest ports and harbors to earthquake and tsunami hazards, involving Oregon Sea Grant (OSG), Washington Sea Grant (WSG), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center (CSC), and the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Science Policy (CSP). Specific products of this research, planning, and outreach initiative include a regional stakeholder issues and needs assessment, a community-based mitigation planning process, a Geographic Information System (GIS) — based vulnerability assessment methodology, an educational web-site and a regional data archive. This paper summarizes these efforts, including results of two pilot port-harbor community projects, one in Yaquina Bay, Oregon and the other in Sinclair Inlet, Washington. Finally, plans are outlined for outreach to other port and harbor communities in the Pacific Northwest and beyond, using "getting started" workshops and a web-based tutorial.

  13. Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) - Progress Report, 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Oliver S.; Haase, Jennifer L.; Moore, David W.

    2009-01-01

    Maps of surficial geology, deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard, and liquefaction potential index have been prepared by various members of the Evansville Area Earthquake Hazard Mapping Project for seven quadrangles in the Evansville, Indiana, and Henderson, Kentucky, metropolitan areas. The surficial geologic maps feature 23 types of surficial geologic deposits, artificial fill, and undifferentiated bedrock outcrop and include alluvial and lake deposits of the Ohio River valley. Probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard and liquefaction hazard mapping is made possible by drawing on a wealth of information including surficial geologic maps, water well logs, and in-situ testing profiles using the cone penetration test, standard penetration test, down-hole shear wave velocity tests, and seismic refraction tests. These data were compiled and collected with contributions from the Indiana Geological Survey, Kentucky Geological Survey, Illinois State Geological Survey, United States Geological Survey, and Purdue University. Hazard map products are in progress and are expected to be completed by the end of 2009, with a public roll out in early 2010. Preliminary results suggest that there is a 2 percent probability that peak ground accelerations of about 0.3 g will be exceeded in much of the study area within 50 years, which is similar to the 2002 USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps for a firm rock site value. Accelerations as high as 0.4-0.5 g may be exceeded along the edge of the Ohio River basin. Most of the region outside of the river basin has a low liquefaction potential index (LPI), where the probability that LPI is greater than 5 (that is, there is a high potential for liquefaction) for a M7.7 New Madrid type event is only 20-30 percent. Within the river basin, most of the region has high LPI, where the probability that LPI is greater than 5 for a New Madrid type event is 80-100 percent.

  14. Crustal structure and Seismic Hazard studies in Nigeria from ambient noise and earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadiri, U. A.

    2016-12-01

    The crust, upper Mantle and seismic hazard studies have been carried out in Nigeria using noise and earthquake data. The data were acquired from stations in Nigeria and international Agencies. Firstly, known depths of sediments in the Lower Benue Trough (LBT) were collected from wells; Resonance frequency (Fo) and average shear-wave velocities (Vs) were then computed using Matlab. Secondly, average velocities were estimated from noise cross-correlation along seismic stations. Thirdly, the moho depths beneath Ife, Kaduna and Nsukka stations were estimated, as well as Vp/Vs ratio using 2009 earthquake with epicenter in Nigeria. Finally, Statistical and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) were used to compute seismic hazard parameters in Nigeria and its surroundings. The results showed that, soils on the LBT with average shear wave velocity of about 5684m/s would experience more amplification in case of an earthquake, compared to the basement complex in Nigeria. The Vs beneath the seismic stations in Nigeria were also estimated as 288m/s, 1019m/s, 940.6m/s and 255.02m/s in Ife, Nsukka, Awka, and Abakaliki respectively. The average velocity along the station paths was 4.5km/secs, and the Vp, Vs for depths 100-500km profile in parts of South West Nigeria increased from about 5.83-6.42Km/sec and 3.48-6.31km/s respectively with Vp/Vs ratio decreasing from 1.68 to 1.02. Statistical analysis revealed a trend of increasing earthquake occurrence along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and tending to West African region. The analysis of PSHA shows the likelihood of earthquakes with different magnitudes occurring in Nigeria and other parts West Africa in future. This work is aimed at addressing critical issues regarding sites effect characterization, improved earthquake location and robust seismic hazards assessment for planning in the choice of sites for critical facilities in Nigeria. Keywords: Sediment thickness, Resonance Frequency, Average Velocity, Seismic Hazard, Nigeria

  15. State-of-the-Art for Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the United States. Report 17. Interpretation of Strong Ground Motion Records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-10-01

    RECORDS by Bruce A. Bolt Department of Geology and Geophysics . University of California Berkeley, Clif . 94720 ELEG-E Ckbw 191 iDEC 1 6 1981 Report 17 oF a...The Parkfield, California earthquake of June 27, 1966, preliminary seismological and engineering seismological report, U.S. Coast . Geodetic Surv. Das

  16. Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thenhaus, P.C.

    1990-01-01

    A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-1812 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. they are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in U.S history. The large population currently living within the damage area of these earthquakes means that widespread destruction and loss of life is likely if the sequence were repeated. In contrast to California, where the earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Easter U.S-in 155 (Cape Ann, Mass.), 1811-12 (New Madrid, Mo.), 1886 (Charleston S.C) ,and 1897 (Giles County, Va.- are generally regarded as only historical phenomena (fig. 1). The social memory of these earthquakes no longer exists. A fundamental problem in the Eastern U.S, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use and civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the "tools" that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined  by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. the term "earthquake risk," on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade strctures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.  

  17. Preparation of Synthetic Earthquake Catalogue and Tsunami Hazard Curves in Marmara Sea using Monte Carlo Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayraktar, Başak; Özer Sözdinler, Ceren; Necmioǧlu, Öcal; Meral Özel, Nurcan

    2017-04-01

    The Marmara Sea and its surrounding is one of the most populated areas in Turkey. Many densely populated cities, such as megacity Istanbul with a population of more than 14 million, a great number of industrial facilities in largest capacity and potential, refineries, ports and harbors are located along the coasts of Marmara Sea. The region is highly seismically active. There has been a wide range of studies in this region regarding the fault mechanisms, seismic activities, earthquakes and triggered tsunamis in the Sea of Marmara. The historical documents reveal that the region has been experienced many earthquakes and tsunamis in the past. According to Altinok et al. (2011), 35 tsunami events happened in Marmara Sea between BC 330 and 1999. As earthquakes are expected in Marmara Sea with the break of segments of North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in the future, the region should be investigated in terms of the possibility of tsunamis by the occurrence of earthquakes in specific return periods. This study aims to make probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis in Marmara Sea. For this purpose, the possible sources of tsunami scenarios are specified by compiling the earthquake catalogues, historical records and scientific studies conducted in the region. After compiling all this data, a synthetic earthquake and tsunami catalogue are prepared using Monte Carlo simulations. For specific return periods, the possible epicenters, rupture lengths, widths and displacements are determined with Monte Carlo simulations assuming the angles of fault segments as deterministic. For each earthquake of synthetic catalogue, the tsunami wave heights will be calculated at specific locations along Marmara Sea. As a further objective, this study will determine the tsunami hazard curves for specific locations in Marmara Sea including the tsunami wave heights and their probability of exceedance. This work is supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the

  18. Transportation of hazardous materials emergency preparedness hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, A.

    2000-01-01

    This report documents the Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment (EPHA) for the Transportation of Hazardous Materials (THM) at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This hazards assessment is intended to identify and analyze those transportation hazards significant enough to warrant consideration in the SRS Emergency Management Program

  19. Transportation of Hazardous Materials Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanchard, A.

    2000-02-28

    This report documents the Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment (EPHA) for the Transportation of Hazardous Materials (THM) at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This hazards assessment is intended to identify and analyze those transportation hazards significant enough to warrant consideration in the SRS Emergency Management Program.

  20. Transportation of Hazardous Materials Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, A.

    2000-01-01

    This report documents the Emergency Preparedness Hazards Assessment (EPHA) for the Transportation of Hazardous Materials (THM) at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). This hazards assessment is intended to identify and analyze those transportation hazards significant enough to warrant consideration in the SRS Emergency Management Program

  1. Seismic hazard assessment for the Sofia area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Christoskov

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available The capital of Bulgaria, Sofia, is situated in the center of the so-called Sofia area. This is the most populated industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. We apply a version of machine code EQRISK for hazard assessment of the Sofia area according to the Cornell-McGuire approach. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is based on a simplified seismogenic model, which is derived from seismic zoning of Bulgaria. We show, using a Monte Carlo approach, that uncertainties in seismic input have a relatively small effect on the PSHA output, especially when compared with uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationship. Our PSHA map shows that a 10–3 annual probability of the PGA exceeds 0.3 g in much of the Sofia area

  2. Pakistan’s Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards Potential Impact on Infrastructure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GEORGE PARARAS-CARAYANNIS

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Interaction of the Indian, Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates has resulted in the formation of major active fault systems in South Asia. Compression along the tectonic boundaries results in thrust or reverse type of faulting and zones of crustal deformation characterized by high seismic activity and continuing Orogenesis. The more intense seismic activity occurs near regions of thrust faulting which is developing at the Himalayan foothills. In northern Pakistan, the Hindu Kush Mountains converge with the Karakoram Range to form a part of the Himalayan mountain system. Northern, western as well as southern Pakistan, Kashmir and northern India and Afghanistan are along such zones of high seismic activity. In Pakistan, most of the earthquakes occur in the north and western regions along the boundary of the Indian tectonic plate with the Iranian and Afghan micro-plates. The active zone extends from the Makran region in the southwest to the Hazara-Kashmir syntaxial bend in the north. Southwest Pakistan is vulnerable to both earthquake and tsunami hazards. In 2005, earthquakes devastated northern Pakistan and Kashmir and severely affected the cities of Muzaffarabad, Islamadad and Rawalpindi, causing severe destruction to the infrastructure of the northern region. A major earthquake along an extensive transform fault system in 1935 destroyed the city Quetta and the adjoining region. A major earthquake along the northern Arabian sea in 1945 generated a very destructive tsunami along the coasts of Baluchistan and Sindh Provinces. The region near Karachi is vulnerable as it is located near four major faults where destructive earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred in the past. Given Pakistan’s vulnerability and extensive infrastructure development in recent years, the present study reviews briefly the earthquake and tsunami risk factors and assesses the impact that such disasters can have on the country’s critical infrastructure - which includes

  3. Errors in Seismic Hazard Assessment are Creating Huge Human Losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bela, J.

    2015-12-01

    The current practice of representing earthquake hazards to the public based upon their perceived likelihood or probability of occurrence is proven now by the global record of actual earthquakes to be not only erroneous and unreliable, but also too deadly! Earthquake occurrence is sporadic and therefore assumptions of earthquake frequency and return-period are both not only misleading, but also categorically false. More than 700,000 people have now lost their lives (2000-2011), wherein 11 of the World's Deadliest Earthquakes have occurred in locations where probability-based seismic hazard assessments had predicted only low seismic low hazard. Unless seismic hazard assessment and the setting of minimum earthquake design safety standards for buildings and bridges are based on a more realistic deterministic recognition of "what can happen" rather than on what mathematical models suggest is "most likely to happen" such future huge human losses can only be expected to continue! The actual earthquake events that did occur were at or near the maximum potential-size event that either already had occurred in the past; or were geologically known to be possible. Haiti's M7 earthquake, 2010 (with > 222,000 fatalities) meant the dead could not even be buried with dignity. Japan's catastrophic Tohoku earthquake, 2011; a M9 Megathrust earthquake, unleashed a tsunami that not only obliterated coastal communities along the northern Japanese coast, but also claimed > 20,000 lives. This tsunami flooded nuclear reactors at Fukushima, causing 4 explosions and 3 reactors to melt down. But while this history of huge human losses due to erroneous and misleading seismic hazard estimates, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived; if faced with courage and a more realistic deterministic estimate of "what is possible", it need not be lived again. An objective testing of the results of global probability based seismic hazard maps against real occurrences has never been done by the

  4. Exploration of resilience assessments for natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Jacomo, Anna; Han, Dawei; Champneys, Alan

    2017-04-01

    measures of resilience are hazard dependent, and require hazard information. In those cases, the type of hazard information required varies from long term information such as the general probability of occurrence of a particular hazard, to short term information such as the observed damage following a specific earthquake occurrence. The required information also varies from national scale, such as census data, to local scale, such as stakeholder perceptions of a threat. This is shown through examples of resilience assessments, along with a discussion of their ability to inform decision making.

  5. Overestimation of the earthquake hazard along the Himalaya: constraints in bracketing of medieval earthquakes from paleoseismic studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Shreya; Malik, Javed N.

    2017-12-01

    The Himalaya is one of the most seismically active regions of the world. The occurrence of several large magnitude earthquakes viz. 1905 Kangra earthquake (Mw 7.8), 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.2), 1950 Assam earthquake (Mw 8.4), 2005 Kashmir (Mw 7.6), and 2015 Gorkha (Mw 7.8) are the testimony to ongoing tectonic activity. In the last few decades, tremendous efforts have been made along the Himalayan arc to understand the patterns of earthquake occurrences, size, extent, and return periods. Some of the large magnitude earthquakes produced surface rupture, while some remained blind. Furthermore, due to the incompleteness of the earthquake catalogue, a very few events can be correlated with medieval earthquakes. Based on the existing paleoseismic data certainly, there exists a complexity to precisely determine the extent of surface rupture of these earthquakes and also for those events, which occurred during historic times. In this paper, we have compiled the paleo-seismological data and recalibrated the radiocarbon ages from the trenches excavated by previous workers along the entire Himalaya and compared earthquake scenario with the past. Our studies suggest that there were multiple earthquake events with overlapping surface ruptures in small patches with an average rupture length of 300 km limiting Mw 7.8-8.0 for the Himalayan arc, rather than two or three giant earthquakes rupturing the whole front. It has been identified that the large magnitude Himalayan earthquakes, such as 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, and 1950 Assam, that have occurred within a time frame of 45 years. Now, if these events are dated, there is a high possibility that within the range of ±50 years, they may be considered as the remnant of one giant earthquake rupturing the entire Himalayan arc. Therefore, leading to an overestimation of seismic hazard scenario in Himalaya.

  6. Have recent earthquakes exposed flaws in or misunderstandings of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanks, Thomas C.; Beroza, Gregory C.; Toda, Shinji

    2012-01-01

    In a recent Opinion piece in these pages, Stein et al. (2011) offer a remarkable indictment of the methods, models, and results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The principal object of their concern is the PSHA map for Japan released by the Japan Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP), which is reproduced by Stein et al. (2011) as their Figure 1 and also here as our Figure 1. It shows the probability of exceedance (also referred to as the “hazard”) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) intensity 6–lower (JMA 6–) in Japan for the 30-year period beginning in January 2010. JMA 6– is an earthquake-damage intensity measure that is associated with fairly strong ground motion that can be damaging to well-built structures and is potentially destructive to poor construction (HERP, 2005, appendix 5). Reiterating Geller (2011, p. 408), Stein et al. (2011, p. 623) have this to say about Figure 1: The regions assessed as most dangerous are the zones of three hypothetical “scenario earthquakes” (Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai; see map). However, since 1979, earthquakes that caused 10 or more fatalities in Japan actually occurred in places assigned a relatively low probability. This discrepancy—the latest in a string of negative results for the characteristic model and its cousin the seismic-gap model—strongly suggest that the hazard map and the methods used to produce it are flawed and should be discarded. Given the central role that PSHA now plays in seismic risk analysis, performance-based engineering, and design-basis ground motions, discarding PSHA would have important consequences. We are not persuaded by the arguments of Geller (2011) and Stein et al. (2011) for doing so because important misunderstandings about PSHA seem to have conditioned them. In the quotation above, for example, they have confused important differences between earthquake-occurrence observations and ground-motion hazard calculations.

  7. Seismic‐hazard forecast for 2016 including induced and natural earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced a one‐year (2016) probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessment for the central and eastern United States (CEUS) that includes contributions from both induced and natural earthquakes that are constructed with probabilistic methods using alternative data and inputs. This hazard assessment builds on our 2016 final model (Petersen et al., 2016) by adding sensitivity studies, illustrating hazard in new ways, incorporating new population data, and discussing potential improvements. The model considers short‐term seismic activity rates (primarily 2014–2015) and assumes that the activity rates will remain stationary over short time intervals. The final model considers different ways of categorizing induced and natural earthquakes by incorporating two equally weighted earthquake rate submodels that are composed of alternative earthquake inputs for catalog duration, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground‐motion models. These alternatives represent uncertainties on how we calculate earthquake occurrence and the diversity of opinion within the science community. In this article, we also test sensitivity to the minimum moment magnitude between M 4 and M 4.7 and the choice of applying a declustered catalog with b=1.0 rather than the full catalog with b=1.3. We incorporate two earthquake rate submodels: in the informed submodel we classify earthquakes as induced or natural, and in the adaptive submodel we do not differentiate. The alternative submodel hazard maps both depict high hazard and these are combined in the final model. Results depict several ground‐shaking measures as well as intensity and include maps showing a high‐hazard level (1% probability of exceedance in 1 year or greater). Ground motions reach 0.6g horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) in north‐central Oklahoma and southern Kansas, and about 0.2g PGA in the Raton basin of Colorado and New Mexico, in central Arkansas, and in

  8. Turning the rumor of May 11, 2011 earthquake prediction In Rome, Italy, into an information day on earthquake hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amato, A.; Cultrera, G.; Margheriti, L.; Nostro, C.; Selvaggi, G.; INGVterremoti Team

    2011-12-01

    headquarters until 9 p.m.: families, school classes with and without teachers, civil protection groups, journalists. This initiative, built up in a few weeks, had a very large feedback, also due to the media highlighting the presumed prediction. Although we could not rule out the possibility of a strong earthquake in central Italy (with effects in Rome) we tried to explain the meaning of short term earthquake prediction vs. probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Despite many people remained with the fear (many decided to take a day off and leave the town or stay in public parks), we contributed to reduce this feeling and therefore the social cost of this strange Roman day. Moreover, another lesson learned is that these (fortunately sporadic) circumstances, when people's attention is high, are important opportunities for science communication. We thank all the INGV colleagues who contributed to the May 11 Open Day, in particular the Press Office, the Educational and Outreach laboratory, the Graphics Laboratory and SissaMedialab. P.S. no large earthquake happened

  9. St. Louis area earthquake hazards mapping project; seismic and liquefaction hazard maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, Chris H.; Bauer, Robert A.; Chung, Jae-won; Rogers, David; Pierce, Larry; Voigt, Vicki; Mitchell, Brad; Gaunt, David; Williams, Robert; Hoffman, David; Hempen, Gregory L.; Steckel, Phyllis; Boyd, Oliver; Watkins, Connor M.; Tucker, Kathleen; McCallister, Natasha

    2016-01-01

    We present probabilistic and deterministic seismic and liquefaction hazard maps for the densely populated St. Louis metropolitan area that account for the expected effects of surficial geology on earthquake ground shaking. Hazard calculations were based on a map grid of 0.005°, or about every 500 m, and are thus higher in resolution than any earlier studies. To estimate ground motions at the surface of the model (e.g., site amplification), we used a new detailed near‐surface shear‐wave velocity model in a 1D equivalent‐linear response analysis. When compared with the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model, which uses a uniform firm‐rock‐site condition, the new probabilistic seismic‐hazard estimates document much more variability. Hazard levels for upland sites (consisting of bedrock and weathered bedrock overlain by loess‐covered till and drift deposits), show up to twice the ground‐motion values for peak ground acceleration (PGA), and similar ground‐motion values for 1.0 s spectral acceleration (SA). Probabilistic ground‐motion levels for lowland alluvial floodplain sites (generally the 20–40‐m‐thick modern Mississippi and Missouri River floodplain deposits overlying bedrock) exhibit up to twice the ground‐motion levels for PGA, and up to three times the ground‐motion levels for 1.0 s SA. Liquefaction probability curves were developed from available standard penetration test data assuming typical lowland and upland water table levels. A simplified liquefaction hazard map was created from the 5%‐in‐50‐year probabilistic ground‐shaking model. The liquefaction hazard ranges from low (60% of area expected to liquefy) in the lowlands. Because many transportation routes, power and gas transmission lines, and population centers exist in or on the highly susceptible lowland alluvium, these areas in the St. Louis region are at significant potential risk from seismically induced liquefaction and associated

  10. Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, D. E.; Yeck, W. L.; Barnhart, W. D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, A.; Hough, S. E.; Benz, H. M.; Earle, P. S.

    2017-09-01

    The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard. Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10-15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

  11. Source modeling of the 2015 Mw 7.8 Nepal (Gorkha) earthquake sequence: Implications for geodynamics and earthquake hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Daniel E.; Yeck, William; Barnhart, William D.; Schulte-Pelkum, V.; Bergman, E.; Adhikari, L. B.; Dixit, Amod; Hough, S.E.; Benz, Harley M.; Earle, Paul

    2017-01-01

    The Gorkha earthquake on April 25th, 2015 was a long anticipated, low-angle thrust-faulting event on the shallow décollement between the India and Eurasia plates. We present a detailed multiple-event hypocenter relocation analysis of the Mw 7.8 Gorkha Nepal earthquake sequence, constrained by local seismic stations, and a geodetic rupture model based on InSAR and GPS data. We integrate these observations to place the Gorkha earthquake sequence into a seismotectonic context and evaluate potential earthquake hazard.Major results from this study include (1) a comprehensive catalog of calibrated hypocenters for the Gorkha earthquake sequence; (2) the Gorkha earthquake ruptured a ~ 150 × 60 km patch of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the décollement defining the plate boundary at depth, over an area surrounding but predominantly north of the capital city of Kathmandu (3) the distribution of aftershock seismicity surrounds the mainshock maximum slip patch; (4) aftershocks occur at or below the mainshock rupture plane with depths generally increasing to the north beneath the higher Himalaya, possibly outlining a 10–15 km thick subduction channel between the overriding Eurasian and subducting Indian plates; (5) the largest Mw 7.3 aftershock and the highest concentration of aftershocks occurred to the southeast the mainshock rupture, on a segment of the MHT décollement that was positively stressed towards failure; (6) the near surface portion of the MHT south of Kathmandu shows no aftershocks or slip during the mainshock. Results from this study characterize the details of the Gorkha earthquake sequence and provide constraints on where earthquake hazard remains high, and thus where future, damaging earthquakes may occur in this densely populated region. Up-dip segments of the MHT should be considered to be high hazard for future damaging earthquakes.

  12. Teamwork tools and activities within the hazard component of the Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagani, M.; Weatherill, G.; Monelli, D.; Danciu, L.

    2013-05-01

    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a public-private partnership aimed at supporting and fostering a global community of scientists and engineers working in the fields of seismic hazard and risk assessment. In the hazard sector, in particular, GEM recognizes the importance of local ownership and leadership in the creation of seismic hazard models. For this reason, over the last few years, GEM has been promoting different activities in the context of seismic hazard analysis ranging, for example, from regional projects targeted at the creation of updated seismic hazard studies to the development of a new open-source seismic hazard and risk calculation software called OpenQuake-engine (http://globalquakemodel.org). In this communication we'll provide a tour of the various activities completed, such as the new ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Catalogue, and of currently on-going initiatives like the creation of a suite of tools for the creation of PSHA input models. Discussion, comments and criticism by the colleagues in the audience will be highly appreciated.

  13. Wicked Problems in Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, S.; Steckler, M. S.; Rundle, J. B.; Dixon, T. H.

    2017-12-01

    Social scientists have defined "wicked" problems that are "messy, ill-defined, more complex than we fully grasp, and open to multiple interpretations based on one's point of view... No solution to a wicked problem is permanent or wholly satisfying, which leaves every solution open to easy polemical attack." These contrast with "tame" problems in which necessary information is available and solutions - even if difficult and expensive - are straightforward to identify and execute. Updating the U.S.'s aging infrastructure is a tame problem, because what is wrong and how to fix it are clear. In contrast, addressing climate change is a wicked problem because its effects are uncertain and the best strategies to address them are unclear. An analogous approach can be taken to natural hazard problems. In tame problems, we have a good model of the process, good information about past events, and data implying that the model should predict future events. In such cases, we can make a reasonable assessment of the hazard that can be used to develop mitigation strategies. Earthquake hazard mitigation for San Francisco is a relatively tame problem. We understand how the earthquakes result from known plate motions, have information about past earthquakes, and have geodetic data implying that future similar earthquakes will occur. As a result, it is straightforward to develop and implement mitigation strategies. However, in many cases, hazard assessment and mitigation is a wicked problem. How should we prepare for a great earthquake on plate boundaries where tectonics favor such events but we have no evidence that they have occurred and hence how large they may be or how often to expect them? How should we assess the hazard within plates, for example in the New Madrid seismic zone, where large earthquakes have occurred but we do not understand their causes and geodetic data show no strain accumulating? How can we assess the hazard and make sensible policy when the recurrence of

  14. Building 894 hazards assessment document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banda, Z.; Williams, M.

    1996-07-01

    The Department of Energy Order 5500.3A requires facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with Building 894. The entire inventory was subjected to the screening criteria for potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals out of which 9 chemicals were kept for further evaluation. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distance at which a postulated facility event will produce consequences exceeding the Early Severe Health Effects threshold is 130 meters. The highest emergency classification is a General Emergency. The Emergency Planning Zone is a nominal 130 meter area that conforms to DOE boundaries and physical/jurisdictional boundaries such as fence lines and streets

  15. Building 6630 hazards assessment document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, M.; Banda, Z.

    1996-10-01

    The Department of Energy Order 5500.3A requires facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with Building 6630. The entire inventory was subjected to the screening criteria for potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals out of which one chemical was kept for further evaluation. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the chemical release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distance at which a postulated facility event will produce consequences exceeding the Early Severe Health Effects threshold is 76 meters. The highest emergency classification is an Alert. The Emergency Planning Zone is a nominal 100 meter area that conforms to DOE boundaries and physical/jurisdictional boundaries such as fence lines and streets

  16. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Northeast India Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Ranjit; Sharma, M. L.; Wason, H. R.

    2016-08-01

    Northeast India bounded by latitudes 20°-30°N and longitudes 87°-98°E is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. This region has experienced several moderate-to-large-sized earthquakes, including the 12 June, 1897 Shillong earthquake ( M w 8.1) and the 15 August, 1950 Assam earthquake ( M w 8.7) which caused loss of human lives and significant damages to buildings highlighting the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the region has been carried out using a unified moment magnitude catalog prepared by an improved General Orthogonal Regression methodology (Geophys J Int, 190:1091-1096, 2012; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Northeast India region, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, 2013) with events compiled from various databases (ISC, NEIC,GCMT, IMD) and other available catalogs. The study area has been subdivided into nine seismogenic source zones to account for local variation in tectonics and seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters are estimated for each of these source zones, which are input variables into seismic hazard estimation of a region. The seismic hazard analysis of the study region has been performed by dividing the area into grids of size 0.1° × 0.1°. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration ( S a) values (for periods of 0.2 and 1 s) have been evaluated at bedrock level corresponding to probability of exceedance (PE) of 50, 20, 10, 2 and 0.5 % in 50 years. These exceedance values correspond to return periods of 100, 225, 475, 2475, and 10,000 years, respectively. The seismic hazard maps have been prepared at the bedrock level, and it is observed that the seismic hazard estimates show a significant local variation in contrast to the uniform hazard value suggested by the Indian standard seismic code [Indian standard, criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, fifth edition, Part

  17. Impact of Short-term Changes In Earthquake Hazard on Risk In Christchurch, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyst, M.

    2012-12-01

    The recent Mw 7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield, and Mw 6.2, 22 February 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes and the following aftershock activity completely changed the existing view on earthquake hazard of the Christchurch area. Not only have several faults been added to the New Zealand fault database, the main shocks were also followed by significant increases in seismicity due to high aftershock activity throughout the Christchurch region that is still on-going. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) models take into account a stochastic event set, the full range of possible events that can cause damage or loss at a particular location. This allows insurance companies to look at their risk profiles via average annual losses (AAL) and loss-exceedance curves. The loss-exceedance curve is derived from the full suite of seismic events that could impact the insured exposure and plots the probability of exceeding a particular loss level over a certain period. Insurers manage their risk by focusing on a certain return period exceedance benchmark, typically between the 100 and 250 year return period loss level, and then reserve the amount of money needed to account for that return period loss level, their so called capacity. This component of risk management is not too sensitive to short-term changes in risk due to aftershock seismicity, as it is mostly dominated by longer-return period, larger magnitude, more damaging events. However, because the secondairy uncertainties are taken into account when calculating the exceedance probability, even the longer return period losses can still experience significant impact from the inclusion of time-dependent earthquake behavior. AAL is calculated by summing the product of the expected loss level and the annual rate for all events in the event set that cause damage or loss at a particular location. This relatively simple metric is an important factor in setting the annual premiums. By annualizing the expected losses

  18. Scenario for a Short-Term Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA in Chiayi, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chung-Han Chan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using seismic activity and the Meishan earthquake sequence that occurred from 1904 to 1906, a scenario for short-term probabilistic seismic hazards in the Chiayi region of Taiwan is assessed. The long-term earthquake occurrence rate in Taiwan was evaluated using a smoothing kernel. The highest seismicity rate was calculated around the Chiayi region. To consider earthquake interactions, the rate-and-state friction model was introduced to estimate the seismicity rate evolution due to the Coulomb stress change. As imparted by the 1904 Touliu earthquake, stress changes near the 1906 Meishan and Yangshuigang epicenters was higher than the magnitude of tidal triggering. With regard to the impact of the Meishan earthquake, the region close to the Yangshuigang earthquake epicenter had a +0.75 bar stress increase. The results indicated significant interaction between the three damage events. Considering the path and site effect using ground motion prediction equations, a probabilistic seismic hazard in the form of a hazard evolution and a hazard map was assessed. A significant elevation in hazards following the three earthquakes in the sequence was determined. The results illustrate a possible scenario for seismic hazards in the Chiayi region which may take place repeatly in the future. Such scenario provides essential information on earthquake preparation, devastation estimations, emergency sheltering, utility restoration, and structure reconstruction.

  19. A summary of hazard datasets and guidelines supported by the Global Earthquake Model during the first implementation phase

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Pagani

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Global Earthquake Model (GEM initiative promotes open, transparent and collaborative science aimed at the assessment of earthquake risk and its reduction worldwide. During the first implementation phase (2009-2014 GEM sponsored five projects aimed at the creation of global datasets and guidelines toward the creation of open, transparent and, as far as possible, homogeneous hazard input models. These projects concentrated on the following global databases and models: an instrumental catalogue, a historical earthquake archive and catalogue, a geodetic strain rate model, a database of active faults, and set of ground motion prediction equations. This paper describes the main outcomes of these projects illustrating some initial applications as well as challenges in the creation of hazard models.

  20. Neo-deterministic definition of earthquake hazard scenarios: a multiscale application to India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Rastogi, Bal K.; Vaccari, Franco; Cozzini, Stefano; Bisignano, Davide; Romanelli, Fabio; Panza, Giuliano F.; Ashish, Mr; Mir, Ramees R.

    2014-05-01

    The development of effective mitigation strategies requires scientifically consistent estimates of seismic ground motion; recent analysis, however, showed that the performances of the classical probabilistic approach to seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) are very unsatisfactory in anticipating ground shaking from future large earthquakes. Moreover, due to their basic heuristic limitations, the standard PSHA estimates are by far unsuitable when dealing with the protection of critical structures (e.g. nuclear power plants) and cultural heritage, where it is necessary to consider extremely long time intervals. Nonetheless, the persistence in resorting to PSHA is often explained by the need to deal with uncertainties related with ground shaking and earthquakes recurrence. We show that current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic waves generation and propagation processes, along with the improving quantity and quality of geophysical data, allow nowadays for viable numerical and analytical alternatives to the use of PSHA. The advanced approach considered in this study, namely the NDSHA (neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment), is based on the physically sound definition of a wide set of credible scenario events and accounts for uncertainties and earthquakes recurrence in a substantially different way. The expected ground shaking due to a wide set of potential earthquakes is defined by means of full waveforms modelling, based on the possibility to efficiently compute synthetic seismograms in complex laterally heterogeneous anelastic media. In this way a set of scenarios of ground motion can be defined, either at national and local scale, the latter considering the 2D and 3D heterogeneities of the medium travelled by the seismic waves. The efficiency of the NDSHA computational codes allows for the fast generation of hazard maps at the regional scale even on a modern laptop computer. At the scenario scale, quick parametric studies can be easily

  1. Geospatial Analysis of Earthquake Damage Probability of Water Pipelines Due to Multi-Hazard Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Eskandari

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study is to develop a Geospatial Information System (GIS model with the ability to assess the seismic damage to pipelines for two well-known hazards, including ground shaking and ground failure simultaneously. The model that is developed and used in this study includes four main parts of database implementation, seismic hazard analysis, vulnerability assessment and seismic damage assessment to determine the pipeline’s damage probability. This model was implemented for main water distribution pipelines of Iran and tested for two different earthquake scenarios. The final damage probability of pipelines was estimated to be about 74% for water distribution pipelines of Mashhad including 40% and 34% for leak and break, respectively. In the next step, the impact of each earthquake input parameter on this model was extracted, and each of the three parameters had a huge impact on changing the results of pipelines’ damage probability. Finally, the dependency of the model in liquefaction susceptibility, landslide susceptibility, vulnerability functions and segment length was checked out and specified that the model is sensitive just to liquefaction susceptibility and vulnerability functions.

  2. A procedure for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirose, Jiro; Muramatsu, Ken

    2002-03-01

    This report presents a study on the procedures for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). In the recent years, the use of PSHA, which is a part of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), to determine the design basis earthquake motions for NPPs has been proposed. The identified earthquakes are called probability-based scenario earthquakes (PBSEs). The concept of PBSEs originates both from the study of US NRC and from Ishikawa and Kameda. The assessment of PBSEs is composed of seismic hazard analysis and identification of dominant earthquakes. The objectives of this study are to formulate the concept of PBSEs and to examine the procedures for determining the PBSEs for a domestic NPP site. This report consists of three parts, namely, procedures to compile analytical conditions for PBSEs, an assessment to identify PBSEs for a model site using the Ishikawa's concept and the examination of uncertainties involved in analytical conditions. The results obtained from the examination of PBSEs using Ishikawa's concept are as follows. (a) Since PBSEs are expressed by hazard-consistent magnitude and distance in terms of a prescribed reference probability, it is easy to obtain a concrete image of earthquakes that determine the ground response spectrum to be considered in the design of NPPs. (b) Source contribution factors provide the information on the importance of the earthquake source regions and/or active faults, and allows the selection of a couple of PBSEs based on their importance to the site. (c) Since analytical conditions involve uncertainty, sensitivity analyses on uncertainties that would affect seismic hazard curves and identification of PBSEs were performed on various aspects and provided useful insights for assessment of PBSEs. A result from this sensitivity analysis was that, although the difference in selection of attenuation equations led to a

  3. Earthquake hazards to domestic water distribution systems in Salt Lake County, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Highland, Lynn M.

    1985-01-01

    A magnitude-7. 5 earthquake occurring along the central portion of the Wasatch Fault, Utah, may cause significant damage to Salt Lake County's domestic water system. This system is composed of water treatment plants, aqueducts, distribution mains, and other facilities that are vulnerable to ground shaking, liquefaction, fault movement, and slope failures. Recent investigations into surface faulting, landslide potential, and earthquake intensity provide basic data for evaluating the potential earthquake hazards to water-distribution systems in the event of a large earthquake. Water supply system components may be vulnerable to one or more earthquake-related effects, depending on site geology and topography. Case studies of water-system damage by recent large earthquakes in Utah and in other regions of the United States offer valuable insights in evaluating water system vulnerability to earthquakes.

  4. Global assessment of human losses due to earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Vitor; Jaiswal, Kishor; Weatherill, Graeme; Crowley, Helen

    2014-01-01

    Current studies have demonstrated a sharp increase in human losses due to earthquakes. These alarming levels of casualties suggest the need for large-scale investment in seismic risk mitigation, which, in turn, requires an adequate understanding of the extent of the losses, and location of the most affected regions. Recent developments in global and uniform datasets such as instrumental and historical earthquake catalogues, population spatial distribution and country-based vulnerability functions, have opened an unprecedented possibility for a reliable assessment of earthquake consequences at a global scale. In this study, a uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model was employed to derive a set of global seismic hazard curves, using the open-source software OpenQuake for seismic hazard and risk analysis. These results were combined with a collection of empirical fatality vulnerability functions and a population dataset to calculate average annual human losses at the country level. The results from this study highlight the regions/countries in the world with a higher seismic risk, and thus where risk reduction measures should be prioritized.

  5. Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Jedlovec, G.; Crane, D. L.; Meyer, P. J.; LaFontaine, F.

    2016-12-01

    Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-related deaths globally and are likely to become more numerous as a result of climate change. The intensification of heat waves by the urban heat island effect and elevated humidity, combined with urban demographics, are key elements leading to these disasters. Better warning of the potential hazards may help lower risks associated with heat waves. Moderate resolution thermal data from NASA satellites is used to derive high spatial resolution estimates of apparent temperature (heat index) over urban regions. These data, combined with demographic data, are used to produce a daily heat hazard/risk map for selected cities. MODIS data are used to derive daily composite maximum and minimum land surface temperature (LST) fields to represent the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle and identify extreme heat days. Compositing routines are used to generate representative daily maximum and minimum LSTs for the urban environment. The limited effect of relative humidity on the apparent temperature (typically 10-15%) allows for the use of modeled moisture fields to convert LST to apparent temperature without loss of spatial variability. The daily max/min apparent temperature fields are used to identify abnormally extreme heat days relative to climatological values in order to produce a heat wave hazard map. Reference to climatological values normalizes the hazard for a particular region (e.g., the impact of an extreme heat day). A heat wave hazard map has been produced for several case study periods and then computed on a quasi-operational basis during the summer of 2016 for Atlanta, GA, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, and Huntsville, AL. A hazard does not become a risk until someone or something is exposed to that hazard at a level that might do harm. Demographic information is used to assess the urban risk associated with the heat wave hazard. Collectively, the heat wave hazard product can warn people in urban

  6. Perceptions of risk characteristics of earthquakes compared to other hazards and their impact on risk tolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henrich, Liv; McClure, John; Doyle, Emma E H

    2018-03-05

    People tolerate different levels of risk owing to a variety of hazards. Previous research shows that the psychometric properties of hazards predict people's tolerance of them. However, this work has not taken into account events such as earthquakes. The present study tested how earthquakes score vis-à-vis risk properties and risk tolerance as compared to five other familiar hazards. Participants from Wellington, New Zealand (N=139) rated these six hazards using measures of risk characteristics and risk tolerance. Participants demonstrated different levels of risk tolerance for the different hazards and viewed earthquakes as having similar risk features to nuclear power. They also preferred different risk mitigation strategies for earthquakes (more government funding) to the other five hazards (stronger legislation). In addition, earthquake risk tolerance was predicted by different risk characteristics than the other five hazards. These findings will help risk communicators in identifying which risk characteristics to target to influence citizens' risk tolerance. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

  7. Cascading hazards: Understanding triggering relations between wet tropical cyclones, landslides, and earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wdowinski, S.; Peng, Z.; Ferrier, K.; Lin, C. H.; Hsu, Y. J.; Shyu, J. B. H.

    2017-12-01

    Earthquakes, landslides, and tropical cyclones are extreme hazards that pose significant threats to human life and property. Some of the couplings between these hazards are well known. For example, sudden, widespread landsliding can be triggered by large earthquakes and by extreme rainfall events like tropical cyclones. Recent studies have also shown that earthquakes can be triggered by erosional unloading over 100-year timescales. In a NASA supported project, titled "Cascading hazards: Understanding triggering relations between wet tropical cyclones, landslides, and earthquake", we study triggering relations between these hazard types. The project focuses on such triggering relations in Taiwan, which is subjected to very wet tropical storms, landslides, and earthquakes. One example for such triggering relations is the 2009 Morakot typhoon, which was the wettest recorded typhoon in Taiwan (2850 mm of rain in 100 hours). The typhoon caused widespread flooding and triggered more than 20,000 landslides, including the devastating Hsiaolin landslide. Six months later, the same area was hit by the 2010 M=6.4 Jiashian earthquake near Kaohsiung city, which added to the infrastructure damage induced by the typhoon and the landslides. Preliminary analysis of temporal relations between main-shock earthquakes and the six wettest typhoons in Taiwan's past 50 years reveals similar temporal relations between M≥5 events and wet typhoons. Future work in the project will include remote sensing analysis of landsliding, seismic and geodetic monitoring of landslides, detection of microseismicity and tremor activities, and mechanical modeling of crustal stress changes due to surface unloading.

  8. Monogenetic volcanic hazards and assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, C.; Connor, L. J.; Richardson, J. A.

    2012-12-01

    Many of the Earth's major cities are build on the products of monogenetic volcanic eruptions and within geologically active basaltic volcanic fields. These cities include Mexico City (Mexico), Auckland (New Zealand), Melbourne (Australia), and Portland (USA) to name a few. Volcanic hazards in these areas are complex, and involve the potential formation of new volcanic vents and associated hazards, such as lava flows, tephra fallout, and ballistic hazards. Hazard assessment is complicated by the low recurrence rate of volcanism in most volcanic fields. We have developed a two-stage process for probabilistic modeling monogenetic volcanic hazards. The first step is an estimation of the possible locations of future eruptive vents based on kernel density estimation and recurrence rate of volcanism using Monte Carlo simulation and accounting for uncertainties in age determinations. The second step is convolution of this spatial density / recurrence rate model with hazard codes for modeling lava inundation, tephra fallout, and ballistic impacts. A methodology is presented using this two-stage approach to estimate lava flow hazard in several monogenetic volcanic fields, including at a nuclear power plant site near the Shamiram Plateau, a Quaternary volcanic field in Armenia. The location of possible future vents is determined by estimating spatial density from a distribution of 18 mapped vents using a 2-D elliptical Gaussian kernel function. The SAMSE method, a modified asymptotic mean squared error approach, uses the distribution of known eruptive vents to optimally determine a smoothing bandwidth for the Gaussian kernel function. The result is a probability map of vent density. A large random sample (N=10000) of vent locations is drawn from this probability map. For each randomly sampled vent location, a lava flow inundation model is executed. Lava flow input parameters (volume and average thickness) are determined from distributions fit to field observations of the low

  9. Earthquake risk assessment of building structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    2001-01-01

    During the past two decades, probabilistic risk analysis tools have been applied to assess the performance of new and existing building structural systems. Structural design and evaluation of buildings and other facilities with regard to their ability to withstand the effects of earthquakes requires special considerations that are not normally a part of such evaluations for other occupancy, service and environmental loads. This paper reviews some of these special considerations, specifically as they pertain to probability-based codified design and reliability-based condition assessment of existing buildings. Difficulties experienced in implementing probability-based limit states design criteria for earthquake are summarized. Comparisons of predicted and observed building damage highlight the limitations of using current deterministic approaches for post-earthquake building condition assessment. The importance of inherent randomness and modeling uncertainty in forecasting building performance is examined through a building fragility assessment of a steel frame with welded connections that was damaged during the Northridge Earthquake of 1994. The prospects for future improvements in earthquake-resistant design procedures based on a more rational probability-based treatment of uncertainty are examined

  10. Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, L.R.

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) located on the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site. This hazards assessment was conducted to provide the emergency planning technical basis for the PFP. DOE Orders require an emergency planning hazards assessment for each facility that has the potential to reach or exceed the lowest level emergency classification

  11. Hazards assessment for the Hazardous Waste Storage Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knudsen, J.K.; Calley, M.B.

    1994-04-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The hazards assessment was performed to ensure that this facility complies with DOE and company requirements pertaining to emergency planning and preparedness for operational emergencies. The hazards assessment identifies and analyzes hazards that are significant enough to warrant consideration in a facility's operational emergency management program. The area surrounding HWSF, the buildings and structures at HWSF, and the processes used at HWSF are described in this report. All nonradiological hazardous materials at the HWSF were identified (radiological hazardous materials are not stored at HWSF) and screened against threshold quantities according to DOE Order 5500.3A guidance. Two of the identified hazardous materials exceeded their specified threshold quantity. This report discusses the potential release scenarios and consequences associated with an accidental release for each of the two identified hazardous materials, lead and mercury. Emergency considerations, such as emergency planning zones, emergency classes, protective actions, and emergency action levels, are also discussed based on the analysis of potential consequences. Evaluation of the potential consequences indicated that the highest emergency class for operational emergencies at the HWSF would be a Site Area Emergency

  12. NGNP SITE 2 HAZARDS ASSESSMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wayne Moe

    2011-10-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project initiated at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) by the U.S. Department of Energy pursuant to the 2005 Energy Policy Act, is based on research and development activities supported by the Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems Initiative. The principal objective of the NGNP Project is to support commercialization of the high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) technology. The HTGR is a helium-cooled and graphite-moderated reactor that can operate at temperatures much higher than those of conventional light water reactor (LWR) technologies. Accordingly, it can be applied in many industrial applications as a substitute for burning fossil fuels, such as natural gas, to generate process heat in addition to producing electricity, which is the principal application of current LWRs. Nuclear energy in the form of LWRs has been used in the U.S. and internationally principally for the generation of electricity. However, because the HTGR operates at higher temperatures than LWRs, it can be used to displace the use of fossil fuels in many industrial applications. It also provides a carbon emission-free energy supply. For example, the energy needs for the recovery and refining of petroleum, for the petrochemical industry and for production of transportation fuels and feedstocks using coal conversion processes require process heat provided at temperatures approaching 800 C. This temperature range is readily achieved by the HTGR technology. This report summarizes a site assessment authorized by INL under the NGNP Project to determine hazards and potential challenges that site owners and HTGR designers need to be aware of when developing the HTGR design for co-location at industrial facilities, and to evaluate the site for suitability considering certain site characteristics. The objectives of the NGNP site hazard assessments are to do an initial screening of representative sites in order to identify potential challenges and restraints

  13. Earthquake probability at the Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant, Japan, assessed using bandwidth optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, C. B.; Connor, L. J.

    2007-12-01

    On July 16, 2007, a strong 6.8 magnitude earthquake occurred on Japan's west coast, rocking the nearby Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant, the largest nuclear power station on Earth. Shaking during this event produced ground accelerations of ~680 gal, exceeding the plant seismic design specification of 273 gal. This occurrence renews concerns regarding seismic hazards at nuclear facilities located in regions with persistent earthquake activity. Seismic hazard assessments depend upon an understanding of the spatial distribution of earthquakes to effectively assess future earthquake hazards. Earthquake spatial density is best estimated using kernel density functions based on the locations of past seismic events. Two longstanding problems encountered when using kernel density estimation are the selection of an optimal smoothing bandwidth and the quantification of the uncertainty inherent in these estimates. Currently, kernel bandwidths are often selected subjectively and the uncertainty in spatial density estimation is not calculated. As a result, hazards with potentially large consequences for society are poorly estimated. We solve these two problems by employing an optimal bandwidth selector algorithm to objectively identify an appropriately sized kernel bandwidth based on earthquake locations from catalog databases and by assessing uncertainty in the spatial density estimate using a modified smoothed bootstrap technique. After applying these methods to the Kashiwazaki Kariwa site, the calculated probability of one or more Mw 6-7 earthquakes within 10 km of the site during a 40 yr facility lifetime is between 0.005 and 0.02 with 95 percent confidence. This result is made more robust by calculating similar probabilities using alternative databases of earthquake locations and magnitudes. The objectivity and quantitative robustness of these techniques make them extremely beneficial for seismic hazard assessment.

  14. Seismicity and seismic hazard in Sabah, East Malaysia from earthquake and geodetic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, A.; Rawlinson, N.; Tongkul, F.; Stephenson, R.

    2017-12-01

    While the levels of seismicity are low in most of Malaysia, the state of Sabah in northern Borneo has moderate levels of seismicity. Notable earthquakes in the region include the 1976 M6.2 Lahad Datu earthquake and the 2015 M6 Ranau earthquake. The recent Ranau earthquake resulted in the deaths of 18 people on Mt Kinabalu, an estimated 100 million RM ( US$23 million) damage to buildings, roads, and infrastructure from shaking, and flooding, reduced water quality, and damage to farms from landslides. Over the last 40 years the population of Sabah has increased to over four times what it was in 1976, yet seismic hazard in Sabah remains poorly understood. Using seismic and geodetic data we hope to better quantify the hazards posed by earthquakes in Sabah, and thus help to minimize risk. In order to do this we need to know about the locations of earthquakes, types of earthquakes that occur, and faults that are generating them. We use data from 15 MetMalaysia seismic stations currently operating in Sabah to develop a region-specific velocity model from receiver functions and a pre-existing surface wave model. We use this new velocity model to (re)locate earthquakes that occurred in Sabah from 2005-2016, including a large number of aftershocks from the 2015 Ranau earthquake. We use a probabilistic nonlinear earthquake location program to locate the earthquakes and then refine their relative locations using a double difference method. The recorded waveforms are further used to obtain moment tensor solutions for these earthquakes. Earthquake locations and moment tensor solutions are then compared with the locations of faults throughout Sabah. Faults are identified from high-resolution IFSAR images and subsequent fieldwork, with a particular focus on the Lahad Datau and Ranau areas. Used together, these seismic and geodetic data can help us to develop a new seismic hazard model for Sabah, as well as aiding in the delivery of outreach activities regarding seismic hazard

  15. St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project - A Progress Report-November 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karadeniz, D.; Rogers, J.D.; Williams, R.A.; Cramer, C.H.; Bauer, R.A.; Hoffman, D.; Chung, J.; Hempen, G.L.; Steckel, P.H.; Boyd, O.L.; Watkins, C.M.; McCallister, N.S.; Schweig, E.

    2009-01-01

    St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (SLAEHMP) is producing digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards, including liquefaction and ground shaking, in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. Although not site specific enough to indicate the hazard at a house-by-house resolution, they can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as the result of an earthquake. Earthquake hazard maps provide one way of conveying such estimates. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which produces earthquake hazard maps for the Nation, is working with local partners to develop detailed maps for urban areas vulnerable to strong ground shaking. These partners, which along with the USGS comprise the SLAEHMP, include the Missouri University of Science and Technology-Rolla (Missouri S&T), Missouri Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Saint Louis University, Missouri State Emergency Management Agency, and URS Corporation. Preliminary hazard maps covering a test portion of the 29-quadrangle St. Louis study area have been produced and are currently being evaluated by the SLAEHMP. A USGS Fact Sheet summarizing this project was produced and almost 1000 copies have been distributed at several public outreach meetings and field trips that have featured the SLAEHMP (Williams and others, 2007). In addition, a USGS website focusing on the SLAEHMP, which provides links to project results and relevant earthquake hazard information, can be found at: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/ceus/urban_map/st_louis/index.php. This progress report summarizes the

  16. Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Aspospirgos Area, Athens - Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voulgaris, N.; Drakatos, G.; Lekkas, E.; Karastathis, V.; Valadaki, A.; Plessas, S.

    2005-12-01

    The extensive damages and human life loss related to the September 7, 1999 earthquake in the Athens area (Greece) initiated an effort to re-evaluate seismic hazard in various regions around the capital. One of the target areas selected within the framework of the specially designed research project ESTIA was the industrial area of Aspropirgos, where the epicenter of the main shock was located. The multidisciplinary approach towards seismic hazard assessment included a microseismicity survey and detailed geological and tectonic studies in the area in order to delineate and define the recently activated seismic sources in the area. Initially a portable network, consisting of seventeen (17) digital seismographs was installed and operated for 2 months during the autumn of 2004. A total of five hundred forty five (545) earthquakes (Mrisk calculations. Acknowledgments We would like to thank the General Secretariat for Research and Technology of Greece for the partial support of this research, in the framework of ESTIA project.

  17. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.

  18. Aftereffects of Subduction-Zone Earthquakes: Potential Tsunami Hazards along the Japan Sea Coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minoura, Koji; Sugawara, Daisuke; Yamanoi, Tohru; Yamada, Tsutomu

    2015-10-01

    The 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake is a typical subduction-zone earthquake and is the 4th largest earthquake after the beginning of instrumental observation of earthquakes in the 19th century. In fact, the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake displaced the northeast Japan island arc horizontally and vertically. The displacement largely changed the tectonic situation of the arc from compressive to tensile. The 9th century in Japan was a period of natural hazards caused by frequent large-scale earthquakes. The aseismic tsunamis that inflicted damage on the Japan Sea coast in the 11th century were related to the occurrence of massive earthquakes that represented the final stage of a period of high seismic activity. Anti-compressive tectonics triggered by the subduction-zone earthquakes induced gravitational instability, which resulted in the generation of tsunamis caused by slope failing at the arc-back-arc boundary. The crustal displacement after the 2011 earthquake infers an increased risk of unexpected local tsunami flooding in the Japan Sea coastal areas.

  19. Earthquake related tsunami hazard along the western coast of Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Løvholt

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The primary background for the present study was a project to assist the authorities in Thailand with development of plans for how to deal with the future tsunami risk in both short and long term perspectives, in the wake of the devastating 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and tsunami. The study is focussed on defining and analyzing a number of possible future earthquake scenarios (magnitudes 8.5, 8.0 and 7.5 with associated return periods, each one accompanied by specific tsunami modelling. Along the most affected part of the western coast of Thailand, the 2004 tsunami wave caused a maximum water level ranging from 5 to 15 m above mean sea level. These levels and their spatial distributions have been confirmed by detailed numerical simulations. The applied earthquake source is developed based on available seismological and geodetic inversions, and the simulation using the source as initial condition agree well with sea level records and run-up observations. A conclusion from the study is that another megathrust earthquake generating a tsunami affecting the coastline of western Thailand is not likely to occur again for several hundred years. This is in part based on the assumption that the Southern Andaman Microplate Boundary near the Simeulue Islands constitutes a geologic barrier that will prohibit significant rupture across it, and in part on the decreasing subduction rates north of the Banda Ache region. It is also concluded that the largest credible earthquake to be prepared for along the part of the Sunda-Andaman arc that could affect Thailand, is within the next 50–100 years an earthquake of magnitude 8.5, which is expected to occur with more spatial and temporal irregularity than the megathrust events. Numerical simulations have shown such earthquakes to cause tsunamis with maximum water levels up to 1.5–2.0 m along the western coast of Thailand, possibly 2.5–3.0 m on a high tide. However, in a longer time perspective

  20. Monitoring Geologic Hazards and Vegetation Recovery in the Wenchuan Earthquake Region Using Aerial Photography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenwang Li

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available On 12 May 2008, the 8.0-magnitude Wenchuan earthquake occurred in Sichuan Province, China, triggering thousands of landslides, debris flows, and barrier lakes, leading to a substantial loss of life and damage to the local environment and infrastructure. This study aimed to monitor the status of geologic hazards and vegetation recovery in a post-earthquake disaster area using high-resolution aerial photography from 2008 to 2011, acquired from the Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth (CEODE, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The distribution and range of hazards were identified in 15 large, representative geologic hazard areas triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake. After conducting an overlay analysis, the variations of these hazards between successive years were analyzed to reflect the geologic hazard development and vegetation recovery. The results showed that in the first year after the Wenchuan earthquake, debris flows occurred frequently with high intensity. Resultantly, with the source material becoming less available and the slope structure stabilizing, the intensity and frequency of debris flows gradually decreased with time. The development rate of debris flows between 2008 and 2011 was 3% per year. The lithology played a dominant role in the formation of debris flows, and the topography and hazard size in the earthquake affected area also had an influence on the debris flow development process. Meanwhile, the overall geologic hazard area decreased at 12% per year, and the vegetation recovery on the landslide mass was 15% to 20% per year between 2008 and 2011. The outcomes of this study provide supporting data for ecological recovery as well as debris flow control and prevention projects in hazard-prone areas.

  1. Studying geodesy and earthquake hazard in and around the New Madrid Seismic Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Oliver Salz; Magistrale, Harold

    2011-01-01

    Workshop on New Madrid Geodesy and the Challenges of Understanding Intraplate Earthquakes; Norwood, Massachusetts, 4 March 2011 Twenty-six researchers gathered for a workshop sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and FM Global to discuss geodesy in and around the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) and its relation to earthquake hazards. The group addressed the challenge of reconciling current geodetic measurements, which show low present-day surface strain rates, with paleoseismic evidence of recent, relatively frequent, major earthquakes in the region. The workshop presentations and conclusions will be available in a forthcoming USGS open-file report (http://pubs.usgs.gov).

  2. Understanding Earthquake Hazard & Disaster in Himalaya - A Perspective on Earthquake Forecast in Himalayan Region of South Central Tibet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanker, D.; Paudyal, ,; Singh, H.

    2010-12-01

    It is not only the basic understanding of the phenomenon of earthquake, its resistance offered by the designed structure, but the understanding of the socio-economic factors, engineering properties of the indigenous materials, local skill and technology transfer models are also of vital importance. It is important that the engineering aspects of mitigation should be made a part of public policy documents. Earthquakes, therefore, are and were thought of as one of the worst enemies of mankind. Due to the very nature of release of energy, damage is evident which, however, will not culminate in a disaster unless it strikes a populated area. The word mitigation may be defined as the reduction in severity of something. The Earthquake disaster mitigation, therefore, implies that such measures may be taken which help reduce severity of damage caused by earthquake to life, property and environment. While “earthquake disaster mitigation” usually refers primarily to interventions to strengthen the built environment, and “earthquake protection” is now considered to include human, social and administrative aspects of reducing earthquake effects. It should, however, be noted that reduction of earthquake hazards through prediction is considered to be the one of the effective measures, and much effort is spent on prediction strategies. While earthquake prediction does not guarantee safety and even if predicted correctly the damage to life and property on such a large scale warrants the use of other aspects of mitigation. While earthquake prediction may be of some help, mitigation remains the main focus of attention of the civil society. Present study suggests that anomalous seismic activity/ earthquake swarm existed prior to the medium size earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. The mainshocks were preceded by the quiescence period which is an indication for the occurrence of future seismic activity. In all the cases, the identified episodes of anomalous seismic activity were

  3. Turning the rumor of the May 11, 2011, earthquake prediction in Rome, Italy, into an information day on earthquake hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Concetta Nostro

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available A devastating earthquake was predicted to hit Rome on May 11, 2011. This prediction was never officially released, but it grew on the internet and was amplified by the media. It was erroneously ascribed to Raffaele Bendandi, an Italian self-taught natural scientist who studied planetary motions and related them to earthquakes. Indeed, around May 11, 2011, there was a planetary alignment, and this fed the credibility of the earthquake prediction. During the months preceding May 2011, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV was overwhelmed with requests for information about this prediction, by the inhabitants of Rome and by tourists. Given the echo of this earthquake prediction, on May 11, 2011, the INGV decided to organize an Open Day at its headquarters in Rome, to inform the public about Italian seismicity and earthquake physics. The Open Day was preceded by a press conference two days before, to talk with journalists about this prediction, and to present the Open Day. During this ‘Day’, 13 new videos were also posted on our YouTube/INGVterremoti channel to explain earthquake processes and hazards, and to provide periodic updates on seismicity in Italy from the seismicity monitoring room. On May 11, 2011, the INGV headquarters was peacefully invaded by over 3,000 visitors, from 10:00 am to 9:00 pm: families, students with and without teachers, civil protection groups, and many journalists. This initiative that was built up in a few weeks has had very large feedback, and was a great opportunity to talk with journalists and people about earthquake prediction, and more in general about the seismic risk in Italy.

  4. Risk and uncertainty assessment of volcanic hazards

    OpenAIRE

    Sparks, R S J; Aspinall, Willy P; Crosweller, H S; Hincks, Thea K

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to have their lives disrupted if there are signs of unrest that might lead to eruption, and threatened when an eruption does occur. This estimate is an update of the analysis of Tilling and Peterson (1993) and Small and Naumann (2001) using 2009 World Bank population data. In comparison to other natural hazards, such as earthquakes and floods, the historic death toll from volcanoes is quite small. Since about 1500 CE ...

  5. Hazard Assessment in a Big Data World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir; Nekrasova, Anastasia

    2017-04-01

    Open data in a Big Data World provides unprecedented opportunities for enhancing scientific studies and better understanding of the Earth System. At the same time, it opens wide avenues for deceptive associations in inter- and transdisciplinary data misleading to erroneous predictions, which are unacceptable for implementation. Even the advanced tools of data analysis may lead to wrong assessments when inappropriately used to describe the phenomenon under consideration. A (self-) deceptive conclusion could be avoided by verification of candidate models in experiments on empirical data and in no other way. Seismology is not an exception. Moreover, seismic evidences accumulated to-date demonstrate clearly that most of the empirical relations commonly accepted in early history of instrumental seismology can be proved erroneous when subjected to objective hypothesis testing. In many cases of seismic hazard assessment (SHA), either probabilistic or deterministic, term-less or short-term, the claims of a high potential of a model forecasts are based on a flawed application of statistics and, therefore, are hardly suitable for communication to decision makers, which situation creates numerous deception points and resulted controversies. So far, most, if not all, the standard probabilistic methods to assess seismic hazard and associated risks are based on subjective, commonly unrealistic, and even erroneous assumptions about seismic recurrence and none of the proposed short-term precursory signals showed sufficient evidence to be used as a reliable precursor of catastrophic earthquakes. Accurate testing against real observations must be done in advance claiming seismically hazardous areas and/or times. The set of errors of the first and second kind in such a comparison permits evaluating the SHA method effectiveness and determining the optimal choice of parameters in regard to a user-defined cost-benefit function. The information obtained in testing experiments may supply

  6. On some methods for assessing earthquake predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molchan, G.; Romashkova, L.; Peresan, A.

    2017-09-01

    A regional approach to the problem of assessing earthquake predictions inevitably faces a deficit of data. We point out some basic limits of assessment methods reported in the literature, considering the practical case of the performance of the CN pattern recognition method in the prediction of large Italian earthquakes. Along with the classical hypothesis testing, a new game approach, the so-called parimutuel gambling (PG) method, is examined. The PG, originally proposed for the evaluation of the probabilistic earthquake forecast, has been recently adapted for the case of 'alarm-based' CN prediction. The PG approach is a non-standard method; therefore it deserves careful examination and theoretical analysis. We show that the PG alarm-based version leads to an almost complete loss of information about predicted earthquakes (even for a large sample). As a result, any conclusions based on the alarm-based PG approach are not to be trusted. We also show that the original probabilistic PG approach does not necessarily identifies the genuine forecast correctly among competing seismicity rate models, even when applied to extensive data.

  7. Earthquake Probability Assessment for the Active Faults in Central Taiwan: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Rui Lee

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Frequent high seismic activities occur in Taiwan due to fast plate motions. According to the historical records the most destructive earthquakes in Taiwan were caused mainly by inland active faults. The Central Geological Survey (CGS of Taiwan has published active fault maps in Taiwan since 1998. There are 33 active faults noted in the 2012 active fault map. After the Chi-Chi earthquake, CGS launched a series of projects to investigate the details to better understand each active fault in Taiwan. This article collected this data to develop active fault parameters and referred to certain experiences from Japan and the United States to establish a methodology for earthquake probability assessment via active faults. We consider the active faults in Central Taiwan as a good example to present the earthquake probability assessment process and results. The appropriate “probability model” was used to estimate the conditional probability where M ≥ 6.5 and M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes. Our result shows that the highest earthquake probability for M ≥ 6.5 earthquake occurring in 30, 50, and 100 years in Central Taiwan is the Tachia-Changhua fault system. Conversely, the lowest earthquake probability is the Chelungpu fault. The goal of our research is to calculate the earthquake probability of the 33 active faults in Taiwan. The active fault parameters are important information that can be applied in the following seismic hazard analysis and seismic simulation.

  8. Earthquake Emergency Education in Dushanbe, Tajikistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohadjer, Solmaz; Bendick, Rebecca; Halvorson, Sarah J.; Saydullaev, Umed; Hojiboev, Orifjon; Stickler, Christine; Adam, Zachary R.

    2010-01-01

    We developed a middle school earthquake science and hazards curriculum to promote earthquake awareness to students in the Central Asian country of Tajikistan. These materials include pre- and post-assessment activities, six science activities describing physical processes related to earthquakes, five activities on earthquake hazards and mitigation…

  9. Pattern recognition methodologies and deterministic evaluation of seismic hazard: A strategy to increase earthquake preparedness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peresan, Antonella; Panza, Giuliano F.; Gorshkov, Alexander I.; Aoudia, Abdelkrim

    2001-05-01

    Several algorithms, structured according to a general pattern-recognition scheme, have been developed for the space-time identification of strong events. Currently, two of such algorithms are applied to the Italian territory, one for the recognition of earthquake-prone areas and the other, namely CN algorithm, for earthquake prediction purposes. These procedures can be viewed as independent experts, hence they can be combined to better constrain the alerted seismogenic area. We examine here the possibility to integrate CN intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions, pattern recognition of earthquake-prone areas and deterministic hazard maps, in order to associate CN Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) to a set of appropriate scenarios of ground motion. The advantage of this procedure mainly consists in the time information provided by predictions, useful to increase preparedness of safety measures and to indicate a priority for detailed seismic risk studies to be performed at a local scale. (author)

  10. Hazards assessment for the INEL Landfill Complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knudsen, J.K.; Calley, M.B.

    1994-02-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the INEL Landfill Complex (LC) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, which is operated by EG&G Idaho, Inc., for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The hazards assessment was performed to ensure that this facility complies with DOE and company requirements pertaining to emergency planning and preparedness for operational emergencies. DOE Order 5500.3A requires that a facility-specific hazards assessment be performed to provide the technical basis for facility emergency planning efforts. This hazards assessment was conducted in accordance with DOE Headquarters and the DOE Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) guidance to comply with DOE Order 5500.3A. The hazards assessment identifies and analyzes the hazards that are significant enough to warrant consideration in a facility`s operational emergency management program. The area surrounding the LC, the buildings and structures at the LC, and the processes that are used at the LC are described in this report. All hazardous materials, both radiological and nonradiological, at the LC were identified and screened against threshold quantities according to DOE Order 5500.3A guidance. Asbestos at the Asbestos Pit was the only hazardous material that exceeded its specified threshold quantity. However, the type of asbestos received and the packaging practices used are believed to limit the potential for an airborne release of asbestos fibers. Therefore, in accordance with DOE Order 5500.3A guidance, no further hazardous material characterization or analysis was required for this hazards assessment.

  11. Hazards assessment for the INEL Landfill Complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knudsen, J.K.; Calley, M.B.

    1994-02-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the INEL Landfill Complex (LC) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, which is operated by EG ampersand G Idaho, Inc., for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The hazards assessment was performed to ensure that this facility complies with DOE and company requirements pertaining to emergency planning and preparedness for operational emergencies. DOE Order 5500.3A requires that a facility-specific hazards assessment be performed to provide the technical basis for facility emergency planning efforts. This hazards assessment was conducted in accordance with DOE Headquarters and the DOE Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) guidance to comply with DOE Order 5500.3A. The hazards assessment identifies and analyzes the hazards that are significant enough to warrant consideration in a facility's operational emergency management program. The area surrounding the LC, the buildings and structures at the LC, and the processes that are used at the LC are described in this report. All hazardous materials, both radiological and nonradiological, at the LC were identified and screened against threshold quantities according to DOE Order 5500.3A guidance. Asbestos at the Asbestos Pit was the only hazardous material that exceeded its specified threshold quantity. However, the type of asbestos received and the packaging practices used are believed to limit the potential for an airborne release of asbestos fibers. Therefore, in accordance with DOE Order 5500.3A guidance, no further hazardous material characterization or analysis was required for this hazards assessment

  12. Earthquake and volcano hazard notices: An economic evaluation of changes in risk perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernknopf, R.L.; Brookshire, D.S.; Thayer, M.A.

    1990-01-01

    Earthquake and volcano hazard notices were issued for the Mammoth Lakes, California area by the U.S. Geological Survey under the authority granted by the Disaster Relief Act of 1974. The effects on investment, recretion visitation, and risk perceptionsare explored. The hazard notices did not affect recreation visitation, although investment was affected. A perceived loss in the market value of homes was documented. Risk perceptions were altered for property owners. Communication of the probability of an event over time would enhance hazard notices as a policy instrument and would mitigate unnecessary market perturbations. ?? 1990.

  13. The analysis of historical seismograms: an important tool for seismic hazard assessment. Case histories from French and Italian earthquakes; L'analyse des sismogrammes historiques: un outil important pour l'evaluation de l'alea sismique. Etudes de cas de tremblements de terre en France et en Italie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pino, N.A. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Via Diocleziano 328, 80124 Napoli (Italy)

    2011-06-15

    Seismic hazard assessment relies on the knowledge of the source characteristics of past earthquakes. Unfortunately, seismic waveform analysis, representing the most powerful tool for the investigation of earthquake source parameters, is only possible for events occurred in the last 100-120 years, i.e., since seismographs with known response function were developed. Nevertheless, during this time significant earthquakes have been recorded by such instruments and today, also thanks to technological progress, these data can be recovered and analysed by means of modern techniques. In this paper, aiming at giving a general sketch of possible analyses and attainable results in historical seismogram studies, I briefly describe the major difficulties in processing the original waveforms and present a review of the results that I obtained from previous seismogram analysis of selected significant historical earthquakes occurred during the first decades of the 20. century, including (A) the December 28, 1908, Messina straits (southern Italy), (B) the June 11, 1909, Lambesc (southern France) - both of which are the strongest ever recorded instrumentally in their respective countries - and (C) the July 13, 1930, Irpinia (southern Italy) events. For these earthquakes, the major achievements are represented by the assessment of the seismic moment (A, B, C), the geometry and kinematics of faulting (B, C), the fault length and an approximate slip distribution (A, C). The source characteristics of the studied events have also been interpreted in the frame of the tectonic environment active in the respective region of interest. In spite of the difficulties inherent to the investigation of old seismic data, these results demonstrate the invaluable and irreplaceable role of historical seismogram analysis in defining the local seismo-genic potential and, ultimately, for assessing the seismic hazard. The retrieved information is crucial in areas where important civil engineering works

  14. The 2010 Chile Earthquake: Rapid Assessments of Tsunami

    OpenAIRE

    Michelini, A.; Lauciani, V.; Selvaggi, G.; Lomax, A.

    2010-01-01

    After an earthquake underwater, rapid real-time assessment of earthquake parameters is important for emergency response related to infrastructure damage and, perhaps more exigently, for issuing warnings of the possibility of an impending tsunami. Since 2005, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) has worked on the rapid quantification of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential, especially for the Mediterranean area. This work includes quantification of earthquake size fr...

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment of earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant and subsequent upgrade to reduce risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Day, S.A.

    1989-01-01

    An analysis to determine the risk associated with earthquakes at the Rocky Flats Plant was performed. Seismic analyses and structural evaluations were used to postulate building and equipment damage and radiological releases to the environment from various magnitudes of earthquakes. Dispersion modeling and dose assessment to the public were then calculated. The frequency of occurrence of various magnitudes of earthquakes were determined from the Department of Energy natural Phenomena Hazards Modeling Project. Risk to the public was probabilistically assessed for each magnitude of earthquake and for overall seismic risk. Based on the results of this Probabilistic Risk Assessment and a cost/benefit analysis, seismic upgrades are being implemented for several plutonium-handling facilities for the purpose of risk reduction

  16. The Contribution of Palaeoseismology to Seismic Hazard Assessment in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-06-01

    IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-9, Seismic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations, published in 2010, covers all aspects of site evaluation relating to seismic hazards and recommends the use of prehistoric, historical and instrumental earthquake data in seismic hazard assessments. Prehistoric data on earthquakes cover a much longer period than do historical and instrumental data. However, gathering such data is generally difficult in most regions of the world, owing to an absence of human records. Prehistoric data on earthquakes can be obtained through the use of palaeoseismic techniques. This publication describes the current status and practices of palaeoseismology, in order to support Member States in meeting the recommendations of SSG-9 and in establishing the necessary earthquake related database for seismic hazard assessment and reassessment. At a donors’ meeting of the International Seismic Safety Centre Extrabudgetary Project in January 2011, it was suggested to develop detailed guidelines on seismic hazards. Soon after the meeting, the disastrous Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 11 March 2011 and the consequent accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant occurred. The importance of palaeoseismology for seismic hazard assessment in site evaluation was highlighted by the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. However, no methodology for performing investigations using palaeoseismic techniques has so far been available in an IAEA publication. The detailed guidelines and practical tools provided here will be of value to nuclear power plant operating organizations, regulatory bodies, vendors, technical support organizations and researchers in the area of seismic hazard assessment in site evaluation for nuclear installations, and the information will be of importance in support of hazard assessments in the future

  17. Evolution trends in vulnerability of R/C buildings exposed to earthquake induced landslide hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotopoulou, S.; Pitilakis, K.

    2012-04-01

    The assessment of landslide risk depends on the evaluation of landslide hazard and the vulnerability of exposed structures which both change with time. The real, dynamic vulnerability modeling of structures due to landslides may be significantly affected by aging considerations, anthropogenic actions, cumulative damage from past landslide events and retrofitting measures. The present work aims at the development of an efficient analytical methodology to assess the evolution of building vulnerability with time exposed to earthquake -induced landslide hazard. In particular, the aging of typical RC buildings is considered by including probabilistic models of corrosion deterioration of the RC elements within the vulnerability modeling framework. Two potential adverse corrosion scenarios are examined: chloride and carbonation induced corrosion of the steel reinforcement. An application of the proposed methodology to reference low-rise RC buildings exposed to the combined effect of seismically induced landslide differential displacements and reinforcement corrosion is provided. Both buildings with stiff and flexible foundation system standing near the crest of a potentially precarious soil slope are examined. Non linear static time history analyses of the buildings are performed using a fibre-based finite element code. In this analysis type, the applied loads (displacements) at the foundation level vary in the pseudo-time domain, according to a load pattern prescribed as the differential permanent landslide displacement (versus time) curves triggered by the earthquake. The distribution for the corrosion initiation time is assessed through Monte Carlo simulation using appropriate probabilistic models for the carbonation and the chloride induced corrosion. Then, the loss of area of steel over time due to corrosion of the RC elements is modeled as a reduction in longitudinal reinforcing bar cross-sectional area in the fibre section model. Time dependent structural limit

  18. St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project - A PowerPoint Presentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Robert A.

    2009-01-01

    This Open-File Report contains illustrative materials, in the form of PowerPoint slides, used for an oral presentation given at the Earthquake Insight St. Louis, Mo., field trip held on May 28, 2009. The presentation focused on summarizing the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (SLAEHMP) justification, goals, achievements, and products, for an audience of business and public officials. The individual PowerPoint slides highlight, in an abbreviated format, the topics addressed; they are discussed below and are explained with additional text as appropriate.

  19. Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and its application to Hualien City, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-H. Chan

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Here, we propose a time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and apply it to Hualien City, Taiwan. A declustering catalog from 1940 to 2005 was used to build up a long-term seismicity rate model using a smoothing Kernel function. We also evaluated short-term seismicity rate perturbations according to the rate-and-state friction model, and the Coulomb stress changes imparted by earthquakes from 2006 to 2010. We assessed both long-term and short-term probabilistic seismic hazards by considering ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction earthquakes. The long-term seismic hazard in Hualien City gave a PGA (peak ground acceleration of 0.46 g for the 2.1‰ annual exceedance probability. The result is similar to the levels determined in previous studies. Seismic hazards were significantly elevated following the 2007 ML =5.8 earthquake that occurred approximately 10 km from Hualien City. This work presents an assessment of a suitable mechanism for time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard determinations using an updated earthquake catalog. Using minor model assumptions, our approach provides a suitable basis for rapid re-evaluations and will benefit decision-makers and public officials regarding seismic hazard mitigation.

  20. Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. de Ruiter

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

  1. Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

    2017-07-01

    In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

  2. Scenario earthquake hazards for the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, east-central California (ver. 2.0, January 2018)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Rui; Branum, David M.; Wills, Chris J.; Hill, David P.

    2014-06-30

    As part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) multi-hazards project in the Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area, the California Geological Survey (CGS) developed several earthquake scenarios and evaluated potential seismic hazards, including ground shaking, surface fault rupture, liquefaction, and landslide hazards associated with these earthquake scenarios. The results of these analyses can be useful in estimating the extent of potential damage and economic losses because of potential earthquakes and also for preparing emergency response plans.The Long Valley Caldera-Mono Lake area has numerous active faults. Five of these faults or fault zones are considered capable of producing magnitude ≥6.7 earthquakes according to the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) developed by the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) and the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Program. These five faults are the Fish Slough, Hartley Springs, Hilton Creek, Mono Lake, and Round Valley Faults. CGS developed earthquake scenarios for these five faults in the study area and for the White Mountains Fault Zone to the east of the study area.In this report, an earthquake scenario is intended to depict the potential consequences of significant earthquakes. A scenario earthquake is not necessarily the largest or most damaging earthquake possible on a recognized fault. Rather it is both large enough and likely enough that emergency planners should consider it in regional emergency response plans. In particular, the ground motion predicted for a given scenario earthquake does not represent a full probabilistic hazard assessment, and thus it does not provide the basis for hazard zoning and earthquake-resistant building design.Earthquake scenarios presented here are based on fault geometry and activity data developed by the WGCEP, and are consistent with the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHM). Alternatives

  3. Great earthquakes along the Western United States continental margin: implications for hazards, stratigraphy and turbidite lithology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, C. H.; Gutiérrez Pastor, J.; Goldfinger, C.; Escutia, C.

    2012-11-01

    We summarize the importance of great earthquakes (Mw ≳ 8) for hazards, stratigraphy of basin floors, and turbidite lithology along the active tectonic continental margins of the Cascadia subduction zone and the northern San Andreas Transform Fault by utilizing studies of swath bathymetry visual core descriptions, grain size analysis, X-ray radiographs and physical properties. Recurrence times of Holocene turbidites as proxies for earthquakes on the Cascadia and northern California margins are analyzed using two methods: (1) radiometric dating (14C method), and (2) relative dating, using hemipelagic sediment thickness and sedimentation rates (H method). The H method provides (1) the best estimate of minimum recurrence times, which are the most important for seismic hazards risk analysis, and (2) the most complete dataset of recurrence times, which shows a normal distribution pattern for paleoseismic turbidite frequencies. We observe that, on these tectonically active continental margins, during the sea-level highstand of Holocene time, triggering of turbidity currents is controlled dominantly by earthquakes, and paleoseismic turbidites have an average recurrence time of ~550 yr in northern Cascadia Basin and ~200 yr along northern California margin. The minimum recurrence times for great earthquakes are approximately 300 yr for the Cascadia subduction zone and 130 yr for the northern San Andreas Fault, which indicates both fault systems are in (Cascadia) or very close (San Andreas) to the early window for another great earthquake. On active tectonic margins with great earthquakes, the volumes of mass transport deposits (MTDs) are limited on basin floors along the margins. The maximum run-out distances of MTD sheets across abyssal-basin floors along active margins are an order of magnitude less (~100 km) than on passive margins (~1000 km). The great earthquakes along the Cascadia and northern California margins cause seismic strengthening of the sediment, which

  4. Great earthquakes along the Western United States continental margin: implications for hazards, stratigraphy and turbidite lithology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. H. Nelson

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We summarize the importance of great earthquakes (Mw ≳ 8 for hazards, stratigraphy of basin floors, and turbidite lithology along the active tectonic continental margins of the Cascadia subduction zone and the northern San Andreas Transform Fault by utilizing studies of swath bathymetry visual core descriptions, grain size analysis, X-ray radiographs and physical properties. Recurrence times of Holocene turbidites as proxies for earthquakes on the Cascadia and northern California margins are analyzed using two methods: (1 radiometric dating (14C method, and (2 relative dating, using hemipelagic sediment thickness and sedimentation rates (H method. The H method provides (1 the best estimate of minimum recurrence times, which are the most important for seismic hazards risk analysis, and (2 the most complete dataset of recurrence times, which shows a normal distribution pattern for paleoseismic turbidite frequencies. We observe that, on these tectonically active continental margins, during the sea-level highstand of Holocene time, triggering of turbidity currents is controlled dominantly by earthquakes, and paleoseismic turbidites have an average recurrence time of ~550 yr in northern Cascadia Basin and ~200 yr along northern California margin. The minimum recurrence times for great earthquakes are approximately 300 yr for the Cascadia subduction zone and 130 yr for the northern San Andreas Fault, which indicates both fault systems are in (Cascadia or very close (San Andreas to the early window for another great earthquake.

    On active tectonic margins with great earthquakes, the volumes of mass transport deposits (MTDs are limited on basin floors along the margins. The maximum run-out distances of MTD sheets across abyssal-basin floors along active margins are an order of magnitude less (~100 km than on passive margins (~1000 km. The great earthquakes along the Cascadia and northern California margins

  5. Earthquake Culture: A Significant Element in Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment and Earthquake Disaster Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ibrion, Mihaela

    2018-01-01

    This book chapter brings to attention the dramatic impact of large earthquake disasters on local communities and society and highlights the necessity of building and enhancing the earthquake culture. Iran was considered as a research case study and fifteen large earthquake disasters in Iran were investigated and analyzed over more than a century-time period. It was found that the earthquake culture in Iran was and is still conditioned by many factors or parameters which are not integrated and...

  6. 283-E and 283-W hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutton, L.N.

    1994-01-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the 200 area water treatment plants 283-E and 283-W located on the US DOE Hanford Site. Operation of the water treatment plants is the responsibility of ICF Kaiser Hanford Company (ICF KH). This hazards assessment was conducted to provide emergency planning technical basis for the water treatment plants. This document represents an acceptable interpretation of the implementing guidance document for DOE ORDER 5500.3A which requires an emergency planning hazards assessment for each facility that has the potential to reach or exceed the lowest level emergency classification

  7. Comprehensive seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    earthquakes on an average per year of magnitude 5.0 and above. Reliable seismic hazard ... hospitals, bridges, dams, nuclear power plants, schools ..... cess in time. The magnitude of completeness is the lowest magnitude above which the earthquake recording is assumed to be complete (Rydelek and. Sacks 1989).

  8. Induced and Natural Seismicity: Earthquake Hazards and Risks in Ohio:

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besana-Ostman, G. M.; Worstall, R.; Tomastik, T.; Simmers, R.

    2013-12-01

    To adapt with increasing need to regulate all operations related to both the Utica and Marcellus shale play within the state, ODNR had recently strengthen its regulatory capability through implementation of stricter permit requirements, additional human resources and improved infrastructure. These ODNR's efforts on seismic risk reduction related to induced seismicity led to stricter regulations and many infrastructure changes related particularly to Class II wells. Permit requirement changes and more seismic monitoring stations were implemented together with additional injection data reporting from selected Class II well operators. Considering the possible risks related to seismic events in a region with relatively low seismicity, correlation between limited seismic data and injection volume information were undertaken. Interestingly, initial results showed some indications of both plugging and fracturing episodes. The real-time data transmission from seismic stations and availability of injection volume data enabled ODNR to interact with operators and manage wells dynamically. Furthermore, initial geomorphic and structural analyses indicated possible active faults in the northern and western portion of the state oriented NE-SW. The newly-mapped structures imply possible relatively bigger earthquakes in the region and consequently higher seismic risks. With the above-mentioned recent changes, ODNR have made critical improvement of its principal regulatory role in the state for oil and gas operations but also an important contribution to the state's seismic risk reduction endeavors. Close collaboration with other government agencies and the public, and working together with the well operators enhanced ODNR's capability to build a safety culture and achieve further public and industry participation towards a safer environment. Keywords: Induced seismicity, injection wells, seismic risks

  9. Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program Maps Are Misleading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A. K.

    2010-12-01

    Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and people, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) project was launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP) with the support of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), and endorsed as a demonstration program in the framework of the United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR). The GSHAP project terminated in 1999 when the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment maps and digital data got published (e.g., URL www.seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/). The majority of recent disastrous earthquakes, like the 12 January 2010 Port-au-Prince (Haiti), the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan (Sichuan, China), …, the 26 January 2001 Bhuj (Gujarat, India) prove that the maps resulted from GSHAP are evidently misleading. We have performed a systematic comparison of the GSHAP peak ground acceleration (PGA) values with those related to strong earthquakes in 2000-2010. Each of the 1320 shallow magnitude 6 or larger earthquakes has from 4 to 9 values of the GSHAP PGA at the distance less than 12 km from its epicenter. When transforms to intensity are applied, e.g., MMI(M) = 1.5 (M - 1) (Gutenberg, Richter, 1954) and MMI(PGA) = 1.27 Ln(PGA) - 3.74 (Shteinberg et al. 1993), the difference between the observed and GSHAP estimates MMI(M) - MMI(PGA) is above 1.6 on average while its median equals 2.5. Moreover, for 51 out of 56 magnitude 7.5 or larger events in 2000-2010, the difference is above 1, while for 30 of

  10. Development of uniform hazard response spectra for rock sites considering line and point sources of earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2001-12-01

    Traditionally, the seismic design basis ground motion has been specified by normalised response spectral shapes and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The mean recurrence interval (MRI) used to computed for PGA only. It is shown that the MRI associated with such response spectra are not the same at all frequencies. The present work develops uniform hazard response spectra i.e. spectra having the same MRI at all frequencies for line and point sources of earthquakes by using a large number of strong motion accelerograms recorded on rock sites. Sensitivity of the number of the results to the changes in various parameters has also been presented. This work is an extension of an earlier work for aerial sources of earthquakes. These results will help to determine the seismic hazard at a given site and the associated uncertainities. (author)

  11. Application of High Performance Computing to Earthquake Hazard and Disaster Estimation in Urban Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muneo Hori

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Integrated earthquake simulation (IES is a seamless simulation of analyzing all processes of earthquake hazard and disaster. There are two difficulties in carrying out IES, namely, the requirement of large-scale computation and the requirement of numerous analysis models for structures in an urban area, and they are solved by taking advantage of high performance computing (HPC and by developing a system of automated model construction. HPC is a key element in developing IES, as it needs to analyze wave propagation and amplification processes in an underground structure; a model of high fidelity for the underground structure exceeds a degree-of-freedom larger than 100 billion. Examples of IES for Tokyo Metropolis are presented; the numerical computation is made by using K computer, the supercomputer of Japan. The estimation of earthquake hazard and disaster for a given earthquake scenario is made by the ground motion simulation and the urban area seismic response simulation, respectively, for the target area of 10,000 m × 10,000 m.

  12. Unexpected earthquake hazard revealed by Holocene rupture on the Kenchreai Fault (central Greece): Implications for weak sub-fault shear zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copley, Alex; Grützner, Christoph; Howell, Andy; Jackson, James; Penney, Camilla; Wimpenny, Sam

    2018-03-01

    High-resolution elevation models, palaeoseismic trenching, and Quaternary dating demonstrate that the Kenchreai Fault in the eastern Gulf of Corinth (Greece) has ruptured in the Holocene. Along with the adjacent Pisia and Heraion Faults (which ruptured in 1981), our results indicate the presence of closely-spaced and parallel normal faults that are simultaneously active, but at different rates. Such a configuration allows us to address one of the major questions in understanding the earthquake cycle, specifically what controls the distribution of interseismic strain accumulation? Our results imply that the interseismic loading and subsequent earthquakes on these faults are governed by weak shear zones in the underlying ductile crust. In addition, the identification of significant earthquake slip on a fault that does not dominate the late Quaternary geomorphology or vertical coastal motions in the region provides an important lesson in earthquake hazard assessment.

  13. Protection of the human race against natural hazards (asteroids, comets, volcanoes, earthquakes)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Joseph V.

    1985-10-01

    Although we justifiably worry about the danger of nuclear war to civilization, and perhaps even to survival of the human race, we tend to consider natural hazards (e.g., comets, asteroids, volcanoes, earthquakes) as unavoidable acts of God. In any human lifetime, a truly catastrophic natural event is very unlikely, but ultimately one will occur. For the first time in human history we have sufficient technical skills to begin protection of Earth from some natural hazards. We could decide collectively throughout the world to reassign resources: in particular, reduction of nuclear and conventional weapons to a less dangerous level would allow concomitant increase of international programs for detection and prevention of natural hazards. Worldwide cooperation to mitigate natural hazards might help psychologically to lead us away from the divisive bickering that triggers wars. Future generations could hail us as pioneers of peace and safety rather than curse us as agents of death and destruction.

  14. Assessment of seismic hazards along the northern Gulf of Aqaba

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abueladas, Abdel-Rahman Aqel

    Aqaba and Elat are very important port and recreation cities for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and Israel, respectively. The two cities are the most susceptible to damage from a destructive future earthquake because they are located over the tectonically active Dead Sea transform fault (DST) that is the source of most of the major historical earthquakes in the region. The largest twentieth century earthquake on the DST, the magnitude Mw 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake of November 22, 1995, caused damage to structures in both cities. The integration of geological, geophysical, and earthquake engineering studies will help to assess the seismic hazards by determining the location and slip potential of active faults and by mapping areas of high liquefaction susceptibility. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) as a high resolution shallow geophysical tool was used to map the shallow active faults in Aqaba, Taba Sabkha area, and Elat. The GPR data revealed the onshore continuation of the Evrona, West Aqaba, Aqaba fault zones, and several transverse faults. The integration of offshore and onshore data confirm the extension of these faults along both sides of the Gulf of Aqaba. A 3D model of GPR data at one site in Aqaba indicates that the NW-trending transverse faults right laterally offset older than NE-trending faults. The most hazardous fault is the Evrona fault which extends north to the Tabs Sabkha. A geographic information system (GIS) database of the seismic hazard was created in order to facilitate the analyzing, manipulation, and updating of the input parameters. Liquefaction potential maps were created for the region based on analysis of borehole data. The liquefaction map shows high and moderate liquefaction susceptibility zones along the northern coast of the Gulf of Aqaba. In Aqaba several hotels are located within a high and moderate liquefaction zones. The Yacht Club, Aqaba, Ayla archaeological site, and a part of commercial area are also situated in a risk area. A part

  15. Preliminary Hazard Assessment for Tectonic Tsunamis in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin, B.; Bayazitoglu, O.; Sharghi vand, N.; Kanoglu, U.

    2017-12-01

    There are many critical industrial facilities such as energy production units and energy transmission lines along the southeast coast of Turkey. This region is also active on tourism, and agriculture and aquaculture production. There are active faults in the region, i.e. the Cyprus Fault, which extends along the Mediterranean basin in the east-west direction and connects to the Hellenic Arc. Both the Cyprus Fault and the Hellenic Arc are seismologically active and are capable of generating earthquakes with tsunamigenic potential. Even a small tsunami in the region could cause confusion as shown by the recent 21 July 2017 earthquake of Mw 6.6, which occurred in the Aegean Sea, between Bodrum, Turkey and Kos Island, Greece since region is not prepared for such an event. Moreover, the Mediterranean Sea is one of the most vulnerable regions against sea level rise due to global warming, according to the 5th Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For these reasons, a marine hazard such as a tsunami can cause much worse damage than expected in the region (Kanoglu et al., Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 2015). Hence, tsunami hazard assessment is required for the region. In this study, we first characterize earthquakes which have potential to generate a tsunami in the Eastern Mediterranean. Such study is a prerequisite for regional tsunami mitigation studies. For fast and timely predictions, tsunami warning systems usually employ databases that store pre-computed tsunami propagation resulting from hypothetical earthquakes with pre-defined parameters. These pre-defined sources are called tsunami unit sources and they are linearly superposed to mimic a real event, since wave propagation is linear offshore. After investigating historical earthquakes along the Cyprus Fault and the Hellenic Arc, we identified tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean and proposed tsunami unit sources for the region. We used the tsunami numerical model MOST (Titov et al

  16. The Development of an Earthquake Preparedness Plan for a Child Care Center in a Geologically Hazardous Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wokurka, Linda

    The director of a child care center at a community college in California developed an earthquake preparedness plan for the center which met state and local requirements for earthquake preparedness at schools. The plan consisted of: (1) the identification and reduction of nonstructural hazards in classrooms, office, and staff rooms; (2) storage of…

  17. Earthquake shaking hazard estimates and exposure changes in the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Petersen, Mark D.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Leith, William S.

    2015-01-01

    A large portion of the population of the United States lives in areas vulnerable to earthquake hazards. This investigation aims to quantify population and infrastructure exposure within the conterminous U.S. that are subjected to varying levels of earthquake ground motions by systematically analyzing the last four cycles of the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (published in 1996, 2002, 2008 and 2014). Using the 2013 LandScan data, we estimate the numbers of people who are exposed to potentially damaging ground motions (peak ground accelerations at or above 0.1g). At least 28 million (~9% of the total population) may experience 0.1g level of shaking at relatively frequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 72 years or 50% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years), 57 million (~18% of the total population) may experience this level of shaking at moderately frequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 475 years or 10% PE in 50 years), and 143 million (~46% of the total population) may experience such shaking at relatively infrequent intervals (annual rate of 1 in 2,475 years or 2% PE in 50 years). We also show that there is a significant number of critical infrastructure facilities located in high earthquake-hazard areas (Modified Mercalli Intensity ≥ VII with moderately frequent recurrence interval).

  18. Rockfall Hazard Process Assessment : Implementation Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    The Montana Department of Transportation (MDT) commissioned a new research program to improve assessment and management of its rock slope assets. The Department implemented a Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) program in 2005 and wished to add valu...

  19. Risk assessment study of fire following earthquake: a case study of petrochemical enterprises in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Wang, Y.; Chen, H.; Lin, L.

    2013-04-01

    After an earthquake, the fire risk of petrochemistry enterprises is higher than that of other enterprises as it involves production processes with inflammable and explosive characteristics. Using Chinese petrochemical enterprises as the research object, this paper uses a literature review and case summaries to study, amongst others, the classification of petrochemical enterprises, the proportion of daily fires, and fire loss ratio. This paper builds a fire following earthquake risk assessment model of petrochemical enterprises based on a previous earthquake fire hazard model, and the earthquake loss prediction assessment method, calculates the expected loss of the fire following earthquake in various counties and draws a risk map. Moreover, this research identifies high-risk areas, concentrating on the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, and Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Differences in enterprise type produce different levels and distribution of petrochemical enterprises earthquake fire risk. Furthermore, areas at high risk of post-earthquake fires and with low levels of seismic fortification require extra attention to ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place.

  20. Risk assessment study of fire following an earthquake: a case study of petrochemical enterprises in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J.; Wang, Y.; Chen, H.; Lin, L.

    2014-04-01

    After an earthquake, the fire risk of petrochemical enterprises is higher than that of other enterprises as it involves production processes with inflammable and explosive characteristics. Using Chinese petrochemical enterprises as the research object, this paper uses a literature review and case summaries to study, amongst others, the classification of petrochemical enterprises, the proportion of daily fires, and fire loss ratio. This paper builds a fire following an earthquake risk assessment model of petrochemical enterprises based on a previous earthquake fire hazard model, and the earthquake loss prediction assessment method, calculates the expected loss of the fire following an earthquake in various counties and draws a risk map. Moreover, this research identifies high-risk areas, concentrating on the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region, and Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces. Differences in enterprise type produce different levels and distribution of petrochemical enterprise earthquake fire risk. Furthermore, areas at high risk of post-earthquake fires and with low levels of seismic fortification require extra attention to ensure appropriate mechanisms are in place.

  1. Environmental Health assessment 200 Days after Earthquake-Affected Region in East Azerbaijan Earthquake, North-Western of Iran, 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alihossein Zeinalzadeh

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating of health status and explore the challenges of health problems that threaten human life following disasters and major earthquakes providing windows of opportunities for health care providers in future planning of disasters. The main purpose of this report was to survey the environmental sanitation statues after 200 days of the affected populations in earthquakes of East Azerbaijan, northwestern of Iran, 2012. The survey was carried out in earthquake zones 200 days after the occurrence of the earthquake. A single stage cluster sampling from among 95 villages damaged in the earthquake of 2012 East Azerbaijan of three towns Ahar, Varzeghan and Heris were selected. The data were collected with questionnaire, site visits and evaluation of water and sanitation. In a twin Earthquake, East Azerbaijan province that 399 villages of Ahar, Varzeghan, Heris, Tabriz and Kaleibar cities were affected and 356 (89.2 % villages were destroyed between 30-100%.  Evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure after 200 days, shown that only half of these villages consumed healthy water with high coverage and adequate. Half of the villages in 200 days after the earthquake were covered safe drinking water (treated drinking water. The bacteriological quality of drinking-water supply of the affected area was assessed in randomly collected 146 samples from this region and ten (6.8% reported as unsuitable. Solid waste management facilities in residents have not been acceptable that affect public health. Solid waste disposal was done by district residents (cooperation rural residents 68.4%, 36.8% and 76.3% in Ahar, Varzeghan and Heris, respectively. Overall, the impact of infectious and communicable diseases after Earthquake was reported 42.1% (16 villages in the Varzeghan. The lack of geographical view with a focus in mountainous and rural areas, partial support and dispersion of earthquake-stricken people in affected villages and lack of participatory need

  2. Special Issue "Impact of Natural Hazards on Urban Areas and Infrastructure" in the Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostenaru Dan, M.

    2009-04-01

    This special issue includes selected papers on the topic of earthquake impact from the sessions held in 2004 in Nice, France and in 2005 in Vienna, Austria at the first and respectivelly the second European Geosciences Union General Assembly. Since its start in 1999, in the Hague, Netherlands, the hazard of earthquakes has been the most popular of the session. The respective calls in 2004 was for: Nature's forces including earthquakes, floods, landslides, high winds and volcanic eruptions can inflict losses to urban settlements and man-made structures such as infrastructure. In Europe, recent years have seen such significant losses from earthquakes in south and south-eastern Europe, floods in central Europe, and wind storms in western Europe. Meanwhile, significant progress has been made in understanding disasters. Several scientific fields contribute to a holistic approach in the evaluation of capacities, vulnerabilities and hazards, the main factors on mitigating urban disasters due to natural hazards. An important part of the session is devoted to assessment of earthquake shaking and loss scenarios, including both physical damage and human causalities. Early warning and rapid damage evaluation are of utmost importance for addressing the safety of many essential facilities, for emergency management of events and for disaster response. In case of earthquake occurrence strong motion networks, data processing and interpretation lead to preliminary estimation (scenarios) of geographical distribution of damages. Factual information on inflicted damage, like those obtained from shaking maps or aerial imagery permit a confrontation with simulation maps of damage in order to define a more accurate picture of the overall losses. Most recent developments towards quantitative and qualitative simulation of natural hazard impacts on urban areas, which provide decision-making support for urban disaster management, and success stories of and lessons learned from disaster

  3. Creating a Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Assessment and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes have claimed approximately 8 million lives over the last 2,000 years (Dunbar, Lockridge and others, 1992) and fatality rates are likely to continue to rise with increased population and urbanizations of global settlements especially in developing countries. More than 75% of earthquake-related human casualties are caused by the collapse of buildings or structures (Coburn and Spence, 2002). It is disheartening to note that large fractions of the world's population still reside in informal, poorly-constructed & non-engineered dwellings which have high susceptibility to collapse during earthquakes. Moreover, with increasing urbanization half of world's population now lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2001), and half of these urban centers are located in earthquake-prone regions (Bilham, 2004). The poor performance of most building stocks during earthquakes remains a primary societal concern. However, despite this dark history and bleaker future trends, there are no comprehensive global building inventories of sufficient quality and coverage to adequately address and characterize future earthquake losses. Such an inventory is vital both for earthquake loss mitigation and for earthquake disaster response purposes. While the latter purpose is the motivation of this work, we hope that the global building inventory database described herein will find widespread use for other mitigation efforts as well. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER), (Wald, Earle and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential casualties associated with earthquake ground shaking for any region of the world. The casualty estimation is based primarily on (1) rapid estimation of the ground shaking hazard, (2) aggregating the population exposure within different building types, and (3) estimating the casualties from the collapse of vulnerable buildings. Thus, the

  4. AECB workshop on seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepp, J.C.; Price, R.A.; Coppersmith, K.J.; Klimkiewicz, G.C.; McGuire, R.K.

    1995-10-01

    The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence in southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: (1) The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources, (2) Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information, (3) Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources, and (4) Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. The format of each session involved invited presentations of relevant data followed by open presentations by participants, a general discussion focusing on the relevance of the presented information for seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario, then development of conclusions and recommendations. In the final session, the conclusions and recommendations were summarized and an open discussion was held to develop consensus. This report presents perspective summaries of the workshop technical sessions together with conclusions and recommendations prepared by the session chairs and the general chairman. 2 refs

  5. Seismic Hazard Assessment at Esfaraen‒Bojnurd Railway, North‒East of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haerifard, S.; Jarahi, H.; Pourkermani, M.; Almasian, M.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the Esfarayen-Bojnurd railway using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) method. This method was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. Attenuation equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 1.2 × 1.2 km covering the study area, ground acceleration for every node was calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to return periods of 74, 475 and 2475 years.

  6. Citizen Monitoring during Hazards: The Case of Fukushima Radiation after the 2011 Japanese Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hultquist, C.; Cervone, G.

    2015-12-01

    Citizen-led movements producing scientific environmental information are increasingly common during hazards. After the Japanese earthquake-triggered tsunami in 2011, the government produced airborne remote sensing data of the radiation levels after the Fukushima nuclear reactor failures. Advances in technology enabled citizens to monitor radiation by innovative mobile devices built from components bought on the Internet. The citizen-led Safecast project measured on-ground levels of radiation in the Fukushima prefecture which total 14 million entries to date in Japan. This non-authoritative citizen science collection recorded radiation levels at specific coordinates and times is available online, yet the reliability and validity of the data had not been assessed. The nuclear incident provided a case for assessment with comparable dimensions of citizen science and authoritative data. To perform a comparison of the datasets, standardization was required. The sensors were calibrated scientifically but collected using different units of measure. Radiation decays over time so temporal interpolation was necessary for comparison of measurements as being the same time frame. Finally, the GPS located points were selected within the overlapping spatial extent of 500 meters. This study spatially analyzes and statistically compares citizen-volunteered and government-generated radiation data. Quantitative measures are used to assess the similarity and difference in the datasets. Radiation measurements from the same geographic extents show similar spatial variations which suggests that citizen science data can be comparable with government-generated measurements. Validation of Safecast demonstrates that we can infer scientific data from unstructured and not vested data. Citizen science can provide real-time data for situational awareness which is crucial for decision making during disasters. This project provides a methodology for comparing datasets of radiological measurements

  7. Multi Hazard Assessment: The Azores Archipelagos (PT) case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aifantopoulou, Dorothea; Boni, Giorgio; Cenci, Luca; Kaskara, Maria; Kontoes, Haris; Papoutsis, Ioannis; Paralikidis, Sideris; Psichogyiou, Christina; Solomos, Stavros; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Tsouni, Alexia; Xerekakis, Themos

    2016-04-01

    The COPERNICUS EMS Risk & Recovery Mapping (RRM) activity offers services to support efficient design and implementation of mitigation measures and recovery planning based on EO data exploitation. The Azores Archipelagos case was realized in the context of the FWC 259811 Copernicus EMS RRM, and provides potential impact information for a number of natural disasters. The analysis identified population and assets at risk (infrastructures and environment). The risk assessment was based on hazard and vulnerability of structural elements, road network characteristics, etc. Integration of different hazards and risks was accounted in establishing the necessary first response/ first aid infrastructure. EO data (Pleiades and WV-2), were used to establish a detailed background information, common for the assessment of the whole of the risks. A qualitative Flood hazard level was established, through a "Flood Susceptibility Index" that accounts for upstream drainage area and local slope along the drainage network (Manfreda et al. 2014). Indicators, representing different vulnerability typologies, were accounted for. The risk was established through intersecting hazard and vulnerability (risk- specific lookup table). Probabilistic seismic hazards maps (PGA) were obtained by applying the Cornell (1968) methodology as implemented in CRISIS2007 (Ordaz et al. 2007). The approach relied on the identification of potential sources, the assessment of earthquake recurrence and magnitude distribution, the selection of ground motion model, and the mathematical model to calculate seismic hazard. Lava eruption areas and a volcanic activity related coefficient were established through available historical data. Lava flow paths and their convergence were estimated through applying a cellular, automata based, Lava Flow Hazard numerical model (Gestur Leó Gislason, 2013). The Landslide Hazard Index of NGI (Norwegian Geotechnical Institute) for heavy rainfall (100 year extreme monthly rainfall

  8. Hazard-consistent response spectra in the Region of Murcia (Southeast Spain): comparison to earthquake-resistant provisions

    OpenAIRE

    Gaspar Escribano, Jorge M.; Benito Oterino, Belen; Garcia Mayordomo, Julian

    2008-01-01

    Hazard-consistent ground-motion characterisations of three representative sites located in the Region of Murcia (southeast Spain) are presented. This is the area where the last three damaging events in Spain occurred and there is a significant amount of data for comparing them with seismic hazard estimates and earthquake-resistant provisions. Results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are used to derive uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the 475-year return period, on rock and soil cond...

  9. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Gentilly 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-03-01

    Results of this probabilistic seismic hazard assessment were determined using a suite of conservative assumptions. The intent of this study was to perform a limited hazard assessment that incorporated a range of technically defensible input parameters. To best achieve this goal, input selected for the hazard assessment tended to be conservative with respect to selection of attenuation modes, and seismicity parameters. Seismic hazard estimates at Gentilly 2 were most affected by selection of the attenuation model. Alternative definitions of seismic source zones had a relatively small impact on seismic hazard. A St. Lawrence Rift model including a maximum magnitude of 7.2 m b in the zone containing the site had little effect on the hazard estimate relative to other seismic source zonation models. Mean annual probabilities of exceeding the design peak ground acceleration, and the design response spectrum for the Gentilly 2 site were computed to lie in the range of 0.001 to 0.0001. This hazard result falls well within the range determined to be acceptable for nuclear reactor sites located throughout the eastern United States. (author) 34 refs., 6 tabs., 28 figs

  10. Assessment of multi hazards in Semarang city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugraha, Arief Laila; Hani'ah, Pratiwi, Rosika D.

    2017-07-01

    Semarang city is the centre of the city for the people of Central Java province, where it has been transformed into a centre of economic and administrative government. The condition becomes vulnerable because Semarang city has at least four natural disasters. The Natural disasters also negatively impact for the people of Semarang city. The Natural disasters are floods, tidal flooding, landslides, and drought. To find out which areas are experiencing high levels of threat from the disaster, must be done by mapping multi hazards. Multi hazards mapping is done by using the method of weighting parameters and be processed by GIS from disaster-forming parameters. The next step, the result of mapping multi hazards be overlay to get the value of the level of hazards. To get assessment of Level multi natural hazards, the overlay of the hazards map can be done by two methods, GIS and AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) methods. The result will be obtained in high level of affected multi hazards area in the Semarang city is Genuk district, Semarang Utara district, and Tugu District. In wich total area in high level of multi hazards is 61944.14 hectares or 30.77% of total area Semarang city.

  11. Earthquake-induced crustal deformation and consequences for fault displacement hazard analysis of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gürpinar, Aybars; Serva, Leonello; Livio, Franz; Rizzo, Paul C.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A three-step procedure to incorporate coseismic deformation into PFDHA. • Increased scrutiny for faults in the area permanently deformed by future strong earthquakes. • These faults share with the primary structure the same time window for fault capability. • VGM variation may occur due to tectonism that has caused co-seismic deformation. - Abstract: Readily available interferometric data (InSAR) of the coseismic deformation field caused by recent seismic events clearly show that major earthquakes produce crustal deformation over wide areas, possibly resulting in significant stress loading/unloading of the crust. Such stress must be considered in the evaluation of seismic hazards of nuclear power plants (NPP) and, in particular, for the potential of surface slip (i.e., probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis - PFDHA) on both primary and distributed faults. In this study, based on the assumption that slip on pre-existing structures can represent the elastic response of compliant fault zones to the permanent co-seismic stress changes induced by other major seismogenic structures, we propose a three-step procedure to address fault displacement issues and consider possible influence of surface faulting/deformation on vibratory ground motion (VGM). This approach includes: (a) data on the presence and characteristics of capable faults, (b) data on recognized and/or modeled co-seismic deformation fields and, where possible, (c) static stress transfer between source and receiving faults of unknown capability. The initial step involves the recognition of the major seismogenic structures nearest to the site and their characterization in terms of maximum expected earthquake and the time frame to be considered for determining their “capability” (as defined in the International Atomic Energy Agency - IAEA Specific Safety Guide SSG-9). Then a GIS-based buffer approach is applied to identify all the faults near the NPP, possibly influenced by

  12. Earthquake-induced crustal deformation and consequences for fault displacement hazard analysis of nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gürpinar, Aybars, E-mail: aybarsgurpinar2007@yahoo.com [Nuclear & Risk Consultancy, Anisgasse 4, 1221 Vienna (Austria); Serva, Leonello, E-mail: lserva@alice.it [Independent Consultant, Via dei Dauni 1, 00185 Rome (Italy); Livio, Franz, E-mail: franz.livio@uninsubria.it [Dipartimento di Scienza ed Alta Tecnologia, Università degli Studi dell’Insubria, Via Velleggio, 11, 22100 Como (Italy); Rizzo, Paul C., E-mail: paul.rizzo@rizzoasoc.com [RIZZO Associates, 500 Penn Center Blvd., Suite 100, Pittsburgh, PA 15235 (United States)

    2017-01-15

    Highlights: • A three-step procedure to incorporate coseismic deformation into PFDHA. • Increased scrutiny for faults in the area permanently deformed by future strong earthquakes. • These faults share with the primary structure the same time window for fault capability. • VGM variation may occur due to tectonism that has caused co-seismic deformation. - Abstract: Readily available interferometric data (InSAR) of the coseismic deformation field caused by recent seismic events clearly show that major earthquakes produce crustal deformation over wide areas, possibly resulting in significant stress loading/unloading of the crust. Such stress must be considered in the evaluation of seismic hazards of nuclear power plants (NPP) and, in particular, for the potential of surface slip (i.e., probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis - PFDHA) on both primary and distributed faults. In this study, based on the assumption that slip on pre-existing structures can represent the elastic response of compliant fault zones to the permanent co-seismic stress changes induced by other major seismogenic structures, we propose a three-step procedure to address fault displacement issues and consider possible influence of surface faulting/deformation on vibratory ground motion (VGM). This approach includes: (a) data on the presence and characteristics of capable faults, (b) data on recognized and/or modeled co-seismic deformation fields and, where possible, (c) static stress transfer between source and receiving faults of unknown capability. The initial step involves the recognition of the major seismogenic structures nearest to the site and their characterization in terms of maximum expected earthquake and the time frame to be considered for determining their “capability” (as defined in the International Atomic Energy Agency - IAEA Specific Safety Guide SSG-9). Then a GIS-based buffer approach is applied to identify all the faults near the NPP, possibly influenced by

  13. Widespread seismicity excitation following the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and its implications for seismic hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toda, S.; Stein, R. S.; Lin, J.

    2011-12-01

    The 11 March 2011 Tohoku-chiho Taiheiyo-oki earthquake (Tohoku earthquake) was followed by massive offshore aftershocks including 6 M≧7 and 94 M≧6 shocks during the 4.5 months (until July 26). It is also unprecedented that a broad increase in seismicity was observed over inland Japan at distances of up to 425 km from the locus of high seismic slip on the megathrust. Such an increase was not seen for the 2004 M=9.1 Sumatra or 2010 M=8.8 Chile earthquakes, but they lacked the seismic networks necessary to detect such small events. Here we explore the possibility that the rate changes are the product of static Coulomb stress transfer to small faults. We use the nodal planes of M≧3.5 earthquakes as proxies for such small active faults, and find that of fifteen regions averaging ˜80 by 80 km in size, 11 show a positive association between calculated stress changes and the observed seismicity rate change, 3 show a negative correlation, and for one the changes are too small to assess. This work demonstrates that seismicity can turn on in the nominal stress shadow of a mainshock as long as small geometrically diverse active faults exist there, which is likely quite common in areas having complex geologic background like Tohoku. In Central Japan, however, there are several regions where the usual tectonic stress has been enhanced by the Tohoku earthquake, and the moderate and large faults have been brought closer to failure, producing M˜5 to 6 shocks, including Nagano, near Mt. Fuji, Tokyo metropolitan area and its offshore. We confirmed that at least 5 of the seven large, exotic, or remote aftershocks were brought ≧0.3 bars closer to failure. Validated by such correlations, we evaluate the effects of the Tohoku event on the other subduction zones nearby and major active faults inland. The majorities of thrust faults inland Tohoku are brought farther from failure by the M9 event. However, we found that the large sections of the Japan trench megathrust, the outer

  14. Hazard assessment of germanium supplements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, S H; Bolger, P M

    1997-06-01

    Germanium-containing dietary supplements became popular in the 1970s in Japan and later in other countries, as elixirs for certain diseases (e.g., cancer and AIDS). Germanium is not an essential element. Its acute toxicity is low. However, at least 31 reported human cases linked prolonged intake of germanium products with renal failure and even death. Signs of kidney dysfunction, kidney tubular degeneration, and germanium accumulation were observed. Other adverse effects were anemia, muscle weakness, and peripheral neuropathy. Recovery of renal function is slow and incomplete even long after germanium intake was stopped. The total dose of ingested germanium (as dioxide, carboxyethyl germanium sesquioxide, germanium-lactate-citrate, or unspecified forms) varied from 15 to over 300 g; the exposure duration varied from 2 to 36 months. In laboratory animals, elevated germanium in tissues and impaired kidney and liver function were observed in a life-time drinking water (5 ppm germanium) study. Other toxicities associated with ingested germanium products in human cases were also demonstrated in animal studies with germanium dioxide and sometimes other germanium compounds. Based on the evidence of persistent renal toxicity associated with germanium dioxide, the lack of conclusive findings of differential nephrotoxicity of organic germanium compounds, and the possibility of contamination of the organic germanium products with inorganic germanium, it is clear that germanium products present a potential human health hazard.

  15. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  16. Recent achievements of the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment in the CEI region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panza, G.F.; Vaccari, F.; Kouteva, M.

    2008-03-01

    A review of the recent achievements of the innovative neo-deterministic approach for seismic hazard assessment through realistic earthquake scenarios has been performed. The procedure provides strong ground motion parameters for the purpose of earthquake engineering, based on the deterministic seismic wave propagation modelling at different scales - regional, national and metropolitan. The main advantage of this neo-deterministic procedure is the simultaneous treatment of the contribution of the earthquake source and seismic wave propagation media to the strong motion at the target site/region, as required by basic physical principles. The neo-deterministic seismic microzonation procedure has been successfully applied to numerous metropolitan areas all over the world in the framework of several international projects. In this study some examples focused on CEI region concerning both regional seismic hazard assessment and seismic microzonation of the selected metropolitan areas are shown. (author)

  17. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP - 1992/1999

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Giardini

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations, recognizing natural disasters as a major threat to human life and development, designed the 1990-1999 period as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN/IDNDR; UN Res. 42/169/ 1987. Among the IDNDR Demonstration Projects is the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP, launched in 1992 by the International Lithosphere Program (ILP and implemented in the 1992-1999 period. In order to mitigate the risk associated to the recurrence of earthquakes, the GSHAP promoted a regionally coordinated, homogeneous approach to seismic hazard evaluation. To achieve a global dimension, the GSHAP established initially a mosaic of regions and multinational test areas, then expanded to cover whole continents and finally the globe. The GSHAP Global Map of Seismic Hazard integrates the results obtained in the regional areas and depicts Peak-Ground-Acceleration (PGA with 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a return period of 475 years. All regional results and the Global Map of Seismic Hazard are published in 1999 and available on the GSHAP homepage on http://seismo.ethz.ch/GSHAP/.

  18. Earthquake scenario in West Bengal with emphasis on seismic hazard microzonation of the city of Kolkata, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nath, S. K.; Adhikari, M. D.; Maiti, S. K.; Devaraj, N.; Srivastava, N.; Mohapatra, L. D.

    2014-09-01

    Seismic microzonation is a process of estimating site-specific effects due to an earthquake on urban centers for its disaster mitigation and management. The state of West Bengal, located in the western foreland of the Assam-Arakan Orogenic Belt, the Himalayan foothills and Surma Valley, has been struck by several devastating earthquakes in the past, indicating the need for a seismotectonic review of the province, especially in light of probable seismic threat to its capital city of Kolkata, which is a major industrial and commercial hub in the eastern and northeastern region of India. A synoptic probabilistic seismic hazard model of Kolkata is initially generated at engineering bedrock (Vs30 ~ 760 m s-1) considering 33 polygonal seismogenic sources at two hypocentral depth ranges, 0-25 and 25-70 km; 158 tectonic sources; appropriate seismicity modeling; 14 ground motion prediction equations for three seismotectonic provinces, viz. the east-central Himalaya, the Bengal Basin and Northeast India selected through suitability testing; and appropriate weighting in a logic tree framework. Site classification of Kolkata performed following in-depth geophysical and geotechnical investigations places the city in D1, D2, D3 and E classes. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at a surface-consistent level - i.e., the local seismic hazard related to site amplification performed by propagating the bedrock ground motion with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years through a 1-D sediment column using an equivalent linear analysis - predicts a peak ground acceleration (PGA) range from 0.176 to 0.253 g in the city. A deterministic liquefaction scenario in terms of spatial distribution of liquefaction potential index corresponding to surface PGA distribution places 50% of the city in the possible liquefiable zone. A multicriteria seismic hazard microzonation framework is proposed for judicious integration of multiple themes, namely PGA at the surface, liquefaction potential

  19. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: the Seaside, Oregon Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, F. I.; Geist, E. L.; Synolakis, C.; Titov, V. V.

    2004-12-01

    A pilot study of Seaside, Oregon is underway, to develop methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments that can be incorporated into Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) developed by FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Current NFIP guidelines for tsunami hazard assessment rely on the science, technology and methodologies developed in the 1970s; although generally regarded as groundbreaking and state-of-the-art for its time, this approach is now superseded by modern methods that reflect substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades. In particular, post-1990 technical advances include: improvements in tsunami source specification; improved tsunami inundation models; better computational grids by virtue of improved bathymetric and topographic databases; a larger database of long-term paleoseismic and paleotsunami records and short-term, historical earthquake and tsunami records that can be exploited to develop improved probabilistic methodologies; better understanding of earthquake recurrence and probability models. The NOAA-led U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), in partnership with FEMA, USGS, NSF and Emergency Management and Geotechnical agencies of the five Pacific States, incorporates these advances into site-specific tsunami hazard assessments for coastal communities in Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington. NTHMP hazard assessment efforts currently focus on developing deterministic, "credible worst-case" scenarios that provide valuable guidance for hazard mitigation and emergency management. The NFIP focus, on the other hand, is on actuarial needs that require probabilistic hazard assessments such as those that characterize 100- and 500-year flooding events. There are clearly overlaps in NFIP and NTHMP objectives. NTHMP worst-case scenario assessments that include an estimated probability of occurrence could benefit the NFIP; NFIP probabilistic assessments of 100- and 500-yr

  20. Landslides Hazard Assessment Using Different Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coman Cristina

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Romania represents one of Europe’s countries with high landslides occurrence frequency. Landslide hazard maps are designed by considering the interaction of several factors which, by their joint action may affect the equilibrium state of the natural slopes. The aim of this paper is landslides hazard assessment using the methodology provided by the Romanian national legislation and a very largely used statistical method. The final results of these two analyses are quantitative or semi-quantitative landslides hazard maps, created in geographic information system environment. The data base used for this purpose includes: geological and hydrogeological data, digital terrain model, hydrological data, land use, seismic action, anthropic action and an inventory of active landslides. The GIS landslides hazard models were built for the geographical area of the Iasi city, located in the north-east side of Romania.

  1. Preliminary re-evaluation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Chile: from Arica to Taitao Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Leyton

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Chile is one of the most seismically active countries in the world; indeed, having witnessed very large earthquakes associated with high horizontal peak ground accelerations, the use of probabilistic hazard assessment is an important tool in any decision-making. In the present study, we review all the available information to improve the estimation of the probabilistic seismic hazard caused by two main sources: shallow interplate, thrust earthquakes and intermediate depth, intraplate earthquakes. Using previously defined seismic zones, we compute Gutenberg-Richter laws and, along with appropriate attenuation laws, revaluate the probabilistic seismic hazard assessments in Chile. We obtain expected horizontal peak ground acceleration with a 10% of probability of being exceeded in 50 years, reaching from 0.6 g up 1.0 g in the coast and between 0.4 g and 0.6 g towards the Andes Mountains, with larger values in Northern part of the country. The present study improves our knowledge of geological hazards in Chile, enabling the mitigation of important human and material losses due to large earthquakes in the future.

  2. Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  3. Earthquake and Volcanic Hazard Mitigation and Capacity Building in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayele, A.

    2012-04-01

    The East African Rift System (EARS) is a classic example of active continental rifting, and a natural laboratory setting to study initiation and early stage evolution of continental rifts. The EARS is at different stages of development that varies from relatively matured rift (16 mm/yr) in the Afar to a weakly extended Okavango Delta in the south with predicted opening velocity studies in the region helped researchers to highlight the length and timescales of magmatism and faulting, the partitioning of strain between faulting and magmatism, and their implications for the development of along-axis segmentation. Although the human resource and instrument coverage is sparse in the continent, our understanding of rift processes and deep structure has improved in the last decade after the advent of space geodesy and broadband seismology. The recent major earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and mega dike intrusions that occurred along the EARS attracted several earth scientist teams across the globe. However, most African countries traversed by the rift do not have the full capacity to monitor and mitigate earthquake and volcanic hazards. Few monitoring facilities exist in some countries, and the data acquisition is rarely available in real-time for mitigation purpose. Many sub-Saharan Africa governments are currently focused on achieving the millennium development goals with massive infrastructure development scheme and urbanization while impending natural hazards of such nature are severely overlooked. Collaborations with overseas researchers and other joint efforts by the international community are opportunities to be used by African institutions to best utilize limited resources and to mitigate earthquake and volcano hazards.

  4. Advanced Materials Laboratory hazards assessment document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnett, B.; Banda, Z.

    1995-10-01

    The Department of Energy Order 55OO.3A requires facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the AML. The entire inventory was screened according to the potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distance at which a postulated facility event will produce consequences exceeding the Early Severe Health Effects threshold is 23 meters. The highest emergency classification is a General Emergency. The Emergency Planning Zone is a nominal area that conforms to DOE boundaries and physical/jurisdictional boundaries such as fence lines and streets.

  5. Integrated Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards in Motozintla, Chiapas, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

    2012-12-01

    An integrated risk assessment includes the analysis of all components of individual constituents of risk such as baseline study, hazard identification and categorization, hazard exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand adverse impacts from multiple stressors to which they are exposed. These impacts are due to characteristics inherent in social interactions, institutions, and systems of cultural values. Thus, social vulnerability is a pre-existing condition that affects a society's ability to prepare for and recover from a disruptive event. Risk is the probability of a loss, and this loss depends on three elements: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Thus, risk is the estimated impact that a hazard event would have on people, services, facilities, structures and assets in a community. In this work we assess the risk to natural hazards in the community of Motozintla located in southern Mexico in the state of Chiapas (15.37N, 92.25W) with a population of about 20 000 habitants. Due to its geographical and geological location, this community is continuously exposed to many different natural hazards (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods). To determine the level of exposure of the community to natural hazards, we developed integrated studies and analysis of seismic microzonation, landslide and flood susceptibility as well as volcanic impact using standard methodologies. Social vulnerability was quantified from data obtained from local families interviews. Five variables were considered: household structure quality and design, availability of basic public services, family economic conditions, existing family plans for disaster preparedness, and risk perception.The number of families surveyed was determined considering a sample statistically significant. The families that were interviewed were selected using the simple random sampling technique with replacement. With these

  6. An Integrated Geospatial System for earthquake precursors assessment in Vrancea tectonic active zone in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zoran, Maria A.; Savastru, Roxana S.; Savastru, Dan M.

    2015-10-01

    With the development of space-based technologies to measure surface geophysical parameters and deformation at the boundaries of tectonic plates and large faults, earthquake science has entered a new era. Using time series satellite data for earthquake prediction, it is possible to pursue the behaviors of earthquake precursors in the future and to announce early warnings when the differences between the predicted value and the observed value exceed the pre-define threshold value. Starting with almost one week prior to a moderate or strong earthquake a transient thermal infrared rise in LST of several Celsius degrees (oC) and the increased OLR values higher than the normal have been recorded around epicentral areas, function of the magnitude and focal depth, which disappeared after the main shock. Also are recorded associated geomagnetic and ionospheric distrurbances. Vrancea tectonic active zone in Romania is characterized by a high seismic hazard in European- Mediterranean region, being responsible of strong or moderate intermediate depth and normal earthquakes generation on a confined epicentral area. Based on recorded geophysical parameters anomalies was developed an integrated geospatial system for earthquake precursors assessment in Vrancea active seismic zone. This system integrates derived from time series MODIS Terra/Aqua, NOAA-AVHRR, ASTER, Landsat TM/ETM satellite data multi geophysical parameters (land surface temperature -LST, outgoing long-wave radiation- OLR, and mean air temperature- AT as well as geomagnetic and ionospheric data in synergy with in-situ data for surveillance and forecasting of seismic events.

  7. Regional seismic hazard for Revithoussa, Greece: an earthquake early warning Shield and selection of alert signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Xu

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The feasibility of an earthquake early warning Shield in Greece is being explored as a European demonstration project. This will be the first early warning system in Europe. The island of Revithoussa is a liquid natural gas storage facility near Athens from which a pipeline runs to a gas distribution centre in Athens. The Shield is being centred on these facilities. The purpose here is to analyze seismicity and seismic hazard in relation to the Shield centre and the remote sensor sites in the Shield network, eventually to help characterize the hazard levels, seismic signals and ground vibration levels that might be observed or create an alert situation at a station. Thus this paper mainly gives estimation of local seismic hazard in the regional working area of Revithoussa by studying extreme peak ground acceleration (PGA and magnitudes. Within the Shield region, the most important zone to be detected is WNW from the Shield centre and is at a relatively short distance (50 km or less, the Gulf of Corinth (active normal faults region. This is the critical zone for early warning of strong ground shaking. A second key region of seismicity is at an intermediate distance (100 km or more from the centre, the Hellenic seismic zone south or southeast from Peloponnisos. A third region to be detected would be the northeastern region from the centre and is at a relatively long distance (about 150 km, Lemnos Island and neighboring region. Several parameters are estimated to characterize the seismicity and hazard. These include: the 50-year PGA with 90% probability of not being exceeded (pnbe using Theodulidis & Papazachos strong motion attenuation for Greece, PGANTP; the 50-year magnitude and also at the 90% pnbe, M50 and MP50, respectively. There are also estimates of the earthquake that is most likely to be felt at a damaging intensity level, these are the most perceptible earthquakes at intensities VI, VII and VIII with magnitudes MVI, MVII and MVIII

  8. Seismological and geological investigation for earthquake hazard in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doku, M. S.

    2013-07-01

    A seismological and geological investigation for earthquake hazard in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area was undertaken. The research was aimed at employing a methematical model to estimate the seismic stress for the study area by generating a complete, unified and harmonized earthquake catalogue spanning 1615 to 2012. Seismic events were souced from Leydecker, G. and P. Amponsah, (1986), Ambraseys and Adams, (1986), Amponsah (2008), Geological Survey Department, Accra, Ghana, Amponsah (2002), National Earthquake Information Service, United States Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado 80225, USA, the International Seismological Centre and the National Data Centre of the Ghana Atomic Energy Commission. Events occurring in the study area were used to create and Epicentral Intensity Map and a seismicity map of the study area after interpolation of missing seismic magnitudes. The least square method and the maximum likelihood estimation method were employed to evaluate b-values of 0.6 and 0.9 respectively for the study area. A thematic map of epicentral intensity superimposed on the geology of the study area was also developed to help understand the relationship between the virtually fractured, jointed and sheared geology and the seismic events. The results obtained are indicative of the fact that the stress level of GAMA has a telling effect on its seismicity and also the events are prevalents at fractured, jointed and sheared zones. (au)

  9. Earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

  10. Controlled-Source Seismic Imaging of Rift Processes and Earthquake Hazards in the Salton Trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hole, J. A.; Stock, J. M.; Fuis, G. S.

    2008-12-01

    The NSF MARGINS program, the NSF EarthScope program, and the U.S. Geological Survey have funded a large seismic refraction and reflection survey of the Salton Trough in southern California and northern Mexico, including the Coachella, Imperial, and Mexicali Valleys. The purpose of this presentation is to communicate plans for the seismic project and encourage synergy with piggyback and complementary studies. Fieldwork is tentatively scheduled for January 2010. The goals of the project include both rifting processes at the northern end of the Gulf of California extensional province and earthquake hazards at the southern end of the San Andreas Fault system. In the central Salton Trough, North American lithosphere appears to have been rifted completely apart. The 20-22 km thick crust is apparently composed entirely of new crust added by magmatism from below and sedimentation from above. The seismic survey will investigate the style of continental breakup, the role and mode of magmatism, the effects of rapid Colorado River sedimentation upon extension and magmatism, and the partitioning of oblique extension. The southernmost San Andreas Fault is considered at high risk of producing a large damaging earthquake, yet structure of the fault and adjacent basins are not currently well constrained. To improve hazard models, the seismic survey will image the structure of the San Andreas and Imperial Faults, structure of sedimentary basins in the Salton Trough, and three-dimensional seismic velocity of the crust and uppermost mantle.

  11. Hazard from far-field tsunami at Hilo: Earthquakes from the Ring of Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcas, D.; Weiss, R.; Titov, V.

    2007-12-01

    Historical data and modeling are used to study tsunami hazard at Hilo, Hawaii. Hilo has one of the best historical tsunami record in the US. Considering the tsunami observations from the early eighteen hundreds until today reveals that the number of observed events per decade depends on the awareness of tsunami events. The awareness appears to be a function of the observation techniques such as seismometers and communication devices, as well as direct measurements. Three time periods can be identified, in which the number of observed events increases from one event per decade in the first period to 7.7 in the second, to 9.4 events per decade in the third one. A total of 89 events from far-field sources have been encountered. In contrast only 11 events have been observed with sources in the near field. To remove this historical observation bias from the hazard estimate, we have complimented the historical analysis with a modeling study. We have carried out modeling of 1476 individual earthquakes along the subduction zones of the Pacific Ocean in four different magnitude levels (7.5, 8.2, 8.7 and 9.3). The maximum run up and maximum peak at the tide gauge is plotted for the different magnitude levels to reveal sensitive and source areas of tsunami waves for Hilo and a linear scaling of both parameters for small, but non-linear scaling for larger earthquakes

  12. Y-12 site-specific earthquake response analysis and soil liquefaction assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, S.B.; Hunt, R.J.; Manrod, W.E. III.

    1995-01-01

    A site-specific earthquake response analysis and soil liquefaction assessment were performed for the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant. The main purpose of these studies was to use the results of the analyses for evaluating the safety of the performance category -1, -2, and -3 facilities against the natural phenomena seismic hazards. Earthquake response was determined for seven (7), one dimensional soil columns (Fig. 12) using two horizontal components of the PC-3 design basis 2000-year seismic event. The computer program SHAKE 91 (Ref. 7) was used to calculate the absolute response accelerations on top of ground (soil/weathered shale) and rock outcrop. The SHAKE program has been validated for horizontal response calculations at periods less than 2.0 second at several sites and consequently is widely accepted in the geotechnical earthquake engineering area for site response analysis

  13. Seismic hazard assessment; Valutazione della pericolosita` sismica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paciello, A. [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dip. Ambiente

    1998-12-31

    This paper presents a brief summary of the most commonly used methodologies for seismic hazard assessment. The interest is focused on the probabilistic approach, which can take into account the uncertainties of input data and provides results better comparable with those obtained from hazard analyses of other natural phenomena. Calculation methods, input data and treatment of variability are examined. Some examples of probabilistic seismic hazard maps are moreover presented. [Italiano] Questo lavoro presenta un breve sommario delle piu` comuni metodologie utilizzate per la valutazione della pericolosita` sismica di un sito. Una particolare attenzione e` rivolta all`approccio probabilistico, che permette di tener conto delle incertezze legate ai dati iniziali e fornisce risultati piu` facilmente confrontabili con quelli ottenuti da analisi di pericolosita` di altri fenomeni naturali. Vengono presi in esame i metodi di calcolo, i dati di base e il trattamento delle incertezze. Vengono inoltre presentati alcuni esempi di carte di pericolosita` sismica di tipo probabilistico.

  14. Hanford B Reactor Building Hazard Assessment Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffin, P. W.

    1999-01-01

    The 105-B Reactor (hereinafter referred to as B Reactor) is located in the 100 Area of the Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. The B Reactor is one of nine plutonium production reactors that were constructed in the 1940s during the Cold War Era. Construction of the B Reactor began June 7, 1943, and operation began on September 26, 1944. The Environmental Restoration Contractor was requested by RL to provide an assessment/characterization of the B Reactor building to determine and document the hazards that are present and could pose a threat to the environment and/or to individuals touring the building. This report documents the potential hazards, determines the feasibility of mitigating the hazards, and makes recommendations regarding areas where public tour access should not be permitted

  15. Evaluating earthquake hazards in the Los Angeles region; an earth-science perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziony, Joseph I.

    1985-01-01

    Potentially destructive earthquakes are inevitable in the Los Angeles region of California, but hazards prediction can provide a basis for reducing damage and loss. This volume identifies the principal geologically controlled earthquake hazards of the region (surface faulting, strong shaking, ground failure, and tsunamis), summarizes methods for characterizing their extent and severity, and suggests opportunities for their reduction. Two systems of active faults generate earthquakes in the Los Angeles region: northwest-trending, chiefly horizontal-slip faults, such as the San Andreas, and west-trending, chiefly vertical-slip faults, such as those of the Transverse Ranges. Faults in these two systems have produced more than 40 damaging earthquakes since 1800. Ninety-five faults have slipped in late Quaternary time (approximately the past 750,000 yr) and are judged capable of generating future moderate to large earthquakes and displacing the ground surface. Average rates of late Quaternary slip or separation along these faults provide an index of their relative activity. The San Andreas and San Jacinto faults have slip rates measured in tens of millimeters per year, but most other faults have rates of about 1 mm/yr or less. Intermediate rates of as much as 6 mm/yr characterize a belt of Transverse Ranges faults that extends from near Santa Barbara to near San Bernardino. The dimensions of late Quaternary faults provide a basis for estimating the maximum sizes of likely future earthquakes in the Los Angeles region: moment magnitude .(M) 8 for the San Andreas, M 7 for the other northwest-trending elements of that fault system, and M 7.5 for the Transverse Ranges faults. Geologic and seismologic evidence along these faults, however, suggests that, for planning and designing noncritical facilities, appropriate sizes would be M 8 for the San Andreas, M 7 for the San Jacinto, M 6.5 for other northwest-trending faults, and M 6.5 to 7 for the Transverse Ranges faults. The

  16. An Earthquake Source Ontology for Seismic Hazard Analysis and Ground Motion Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zechar, J. D.; Jordan, T. H.; Gil, Y.; Ratnakar, V.

    2005-12-01

    Representation of the earthquake source is an important element in seismic hazard analysis and earthquake simulations. Source models span a range of conceptual complexity - from simple time-independent point sources to extended fault slip distributions. Further computational complexity arises because the seismological community has established so many source description formats and variations thereof; what this means is that conceptually equivalent source models are often expressed in different ways. Despite the resultant practical difficulties, there exists a rich semantic vocabulary for working with earthquake sources. For these reasons, we feel it is appropriate to create a semantic model of earthquake sources using an ontology, a computer science tool from the field of knowledge representation. Unlike the domain of most ontology work to date, earthquake sources can be described by a very precise mathematical framework. Another uniqueness associated with developing such an ontology is that earthquake sources are often used as computational objects. A seismologist generally wants more than to simply construct a source and have it be well-formed and properly described; additionally, the source will be used for performing calculations. Representation and manipulation of complex mathematical objects presents a challenge to the ontology development community. In order to enable simulations involving many different types of source models, we have completed preliminary development of a seismic point source ontology. The use of an ontology to represent knowledge provides machine interpretability and the ability to validate logical consistency and completeness. Our ontology, encoded using the OWL Web Ontology Language - a standard from the World Wide Web Consortium, contains the conceptual definitions and relationships necessary for source translation services. For example, specification of strike, dip, rake, and seismic moment will automatically translate into a double

  17. Earthquake hazard analysis for the different regions in and around Ağrı

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bayrak, Erdem, E-mail: erdmbyrk@gmail.com; Yilmaz, Şeyda, E-mail: seydayilmaz@ktu.edu.tr [Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon (Turkey); Bayrak, Yusuf, E-mail: bayrak@ktu.edu.tr [Ağrı İbrahim Çeçen University, Ağrı (Turkey)

    2016-04-18

    We investigated earthquake hazard parameters for Eastern part of Turkey by determining the a and b parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship. For this purpose, study area is divided into seven different source zones based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The database used in this work was taken from different sources and catalogues such as TURKNET, International Seismological Centre (ISC), Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) and The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for instrumental period. We calculated the a value, b value, which is the slope of the frequency–magnitude Gutenberg–Richter relationship, from the maximum likelihood method (ML). Also, we estimated the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence for an earthquake magnitude ≥ M during a time span of t-years. We used Zmap software to calculate these parameters. The lowest b value was calculated in Region 1 covered Cobandede Fault Zone. We obtain the highest a value in Region 2 covered Kagizman Fault Zone. This conclusion is strongly supported from the probability value, which shows the largest value (87%) for an earthquake with magnitude greater than or equal to 6.0. The mean return period for such a magnitude is the lowest in this region (49-years). The most probable magnitude in the next 100 years was calculated and we determined the highest value around Cobandede Fault Zone. According to these parameters, Region 1 covered the Cobandede Fault Zone and is the most dangerous area around the Eastern part of Turkey.

  18. Geodetic constraints on frictional properties and earthquake hazard in the Imperial Valley, Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsey, Eric O.; Fialko, Yuri

    2016-02-01

    We analyze a suite of geodetic observations across the Imperial Fault in southern California that span all parts of the earthquake cycle. Coseismic and postseismic surface slips due to the 1979 M 6.6 Imperial Valley earthquake were recorded with trilateration and alignment surveys by Harsh (1982) and Crook et al. (1982), and interseismic deformation is measured using a combination of multiple interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-viewing geometries and continuous and survey-mode GPS. In particular, we combine more than 100 survey-mode GPS velocities with InSAR data from Envisat descending tracks 84 and 356 and ascending tracks 77 and 306 (149 total acquisitions), processed using a persistent scatterers method. The result is a dense map of interseismic velocities across the Imperial Fault and surrounding areas that allows us to evaluate the rate of interseismic loading and along-strike variations in surface creep. We compare available geodetic data to models of the earthquake cycle with rate- and state-dependent friction and find that a complete record of the earthquake cycle is required to constrain key fault properties including the rate-dependence parameter (a - b) as a function of depth, the extent of shallow creep, and the recurrence interval of large events. We find that the data are inconsistent with a high (>30 mm/yr) slip rate on the Imperial Fault and investigate the possibility that an extension of the San Jacinto-Superstition Hills Fault system through the town of El Centro may accommodate a significant portion of the slip previously attributed to the Imperial Fault. Models including this additional fault are in better agreement with the available observations, suggesting that the long-term slip rate of the Imperial Fault is lower than previously suggested and that there may be a significant unmapped hazard in the western Imperial Valley.

  19. Los Angeles County Department of Public Health's Health Hazard Assessment: putting the "health" into hazard assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Brandon; Bagwell, Dee Ann; Dora, Vinita; Khan, Sinan; Plough, Alonzo

    2013-01-01

    A ll communities, explicitly or implicitly, assess and prepare for the natural and manmade hazards that they know could impact their community. The commonality of hazard-based threats in most all communities does not usually result in standard or evidence-based preparedness practice and outcomes across those communities. Without specific efforts to build a shared perspective and prioritization, "all-hazards" preparedness can result in a random hodgepodge of priorities and preparedness strategies, resulting in diminished emergency response capabilities. Traditional risk assessments, with a focus on physical infrastructure, do not present the potential health and medical impacts of specific hazards and threats. With the implementation of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's capability-based planning, there is broad recognition that a health-focused hazard assessment process--that engages the "Whole of Community"--is needed. Los Angeles County's Health Hazard Assessment and Prioritization tool provides a practical and innovative approach to enhance existing planning capacities. Successful utilization of this tool can provide a way for local and state health agencies and officials to more effectively identify the health consequences related to hazard-specific threats and risk, determine priorities, and develop improved and better coordinated agency planning, including community engagement in prioritization.

  20. Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

    2017-04-01

    The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out

  1. Landslide Hazard Assessment In Mountaneous Area of Uzbekistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyazov, R. A.; Nurtaev, B. S.

    Because of the growth of population and caretaking of the flat areas under agricul- ture, mountain areas have been intensively mastered, producing increase of natural and technogenic processes in Uzbekistan last years. The landslides are the most dan- gerous phenomena and 7240 of them happened during last 40 years. More than 50 % has taken place in the term of 1991 - 2000 years. The situation is aggravated be- cause these regions are situated in zones, where disastrous earthquakes with M> 7 occurred in past and are expected in the future. Continuing seismic gap in Uzbek- istan during last 15-20 years and last disastrous earthquakes occurred in Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey, Greece, Taiwan and India worry us. On the basis of long-term observa- tions the criteria of landslide hazard assessment (suddenness, displacement interval, straight-line directivity, kind of residential buildings destruction) are proposed. This methodology was developed on two geographic levels: local (town scale) and regional (region scale). Detailed risk analysis performed on a local scale and extrapolated to the regional scale. Engineering-geologic parameters content of hazard estimation of landslides and mud flows also is divided into regional and local levels. Four degrees of danger of sliding processes are distinguished for compiling of small-scale, medium- and large-scale maps. Angren industrial area in Tien-Shan mountain is characterized by initial seismic intensity of 8-9 (MSC scale). Here the human technological activity (open-cast mining) has initiated the forming of the large landslide that covers more- over 8 square kilometers and corresponds to a volume of 800 billion cubic meters. In turn the landslide influence can become the source of industrial emergencies. On an example of Angren industrial mining region, the different scenarios on safety control of residing of the people and motion of transport, regulating technologies definition of field improvement and exploitation of mountain

  2. Satellite Geodetic Constraints On Earthquake Processes: Implications of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes for Fault Mechanics and Seismic Hazards on the San Andreas Fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilinger, Robert

    2005-01-01

    Our principal activities during the initial phase of this project include: 1) Continued monitoring of postseismic deformation for the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes from repeated GPS survey measurements and expansion of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), 2) Establishing three North Anatolian fault crossing profiles (10 sitedprofile) at locations that experienced major surface-fault earthquakes at different times in the past to examine strain accumulation as a function of time in the earthquake cycle (2004), 3) Repeat observations of selected sites in the fault-crossing profiles (2005), 4) Repeat surveys of the Marmara GPS network to continue to monitor postseismic deformation, 5) Refining block models for the Marmara Sea seismic gap area to better understand earthquake hazards in the Greater Istanbul area, 6) Continuing development of models for afterslip and distributed viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake cycle. We are keeping close contact with MIT colleagues (Brad Hager, and Eric Hetland) who are developing models for S. California and for the earthquake cycle in general (Hetland, 2006). In addition, our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center have undertaken repeat, micro-gravity measurements at the MAGNET sites and have provided us estimates of gravity change during the period 2003 - 2005.

  3. Time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for the 2016 Central Italy earthquakes sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peresan, Antonella; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Romashkova, Leontina; Panza, Giuliano F.

    2017-04-01

    Predicting earthquakes and related ground shaking is widely recognized among the most challenging scientific problems, both for societal relevance and intrinsic complexity of the problem. The development of reliable forecasting tools requires their rigorous formalization and testing, first in retrospect, and then in an experimental real-time mode, which imply a careful application of statistics to data sets of limited size and different accuracy. Accordingly, the operational issues of prospective validation and use of time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios are discussed, reviewing the results in their application in Italy and surroundings. Long-term practice and results obtained for the Italian territory in about two decades of rigorous prospective testing, support the feasibility of earthquake forecasting based on the analysis of seismicity patterns at the intermediate-term middle-range scale. Italy is the only country worldwide where two independent, globally tested, algorithms are simultaneously applied, namely CN and M8S, which permit to deal with multiple sets of seismic precursors to allow for a diagnosis of the intervals of time when a strong event is likely to occur inside a given region. Based on routinely updated space-time information provided by CN and M8S forecasts, an integrated procedure has been developed that allows for the definition of time-dependent seismic hazard scenarios, through the realistic modeling of ground motion by the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA). This scenario-based methodology permits to construct, both at regional and local scale, scenarios of ground motion for the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted areas. CN and M8S predictions, as well as the related time-dependent ground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are routinely updated since 2006. The issues and results from real-time testing of the integrated NDSHA scenarios are illustrated, with special

  4. Brief communication "Fast-track earthquake risk assessment for selected urban areas in Turkey"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Kepekci

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available This study is presented as a contribution to earthquake disaster mitigation studies for selected cities in Turkey. The risk evaluations must be based on earthquake hazard analysis and city information. To estimate the ground motion level, data for earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 4.5 and an epicenter location within a 100-km radius of each city were used for the period from 1900 to 2006, as recorded at the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for each city was carried out using Poisson probabilistic approaches. Ground motion level was estimated as the probability of a given degree of acceleration with a 10% exceedence rate during a 50-year time period for each city. The risk level of each city was evaluated using the number of houses, the per-capita income of city residents, population, and ground motion levels. The maximum risk level obtained for the cities was taken as a reference value for relative risk assessment, and other risk values were estimated relative to the maximum risk level. When the selected cities were classified according to their relative risk levels, the five most risky cities were found to be, in descending order of risk, Istanbul, Izmir, Ankara, Bursa, and Kocaeli.

  5. Earthquake induced landslide hazard: a multidisciplinary field observatory in the Marmara SUPERSITE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigarré, Pascal

    2014-05-01

    Earthquake-triggered landslides have an increasing disastrous impact in seismic regions due to the fast growing urbanization and infrastructures. Just considering disasters from the last fifteen years, among which the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, these events generated tens of thousands of coseismic landslides. Those resulted in amazing death toll and considerable damages, affecting the regional landscape including its hydrological main features. Despite a strong impetus in research during past decades, knowledge on those geohazards is still fragmentary, while databases of high quality observational data are lacking. These phenomena call for further collaborative researches aiming eventually to enhance preparedness and crisis management. As one of the three SUPERSITE concept FP7 projects dealing with long term high level monitoring of major natural hazards at the European level, the MARSITE project gathers research groups in a comprehensive monitoring activity developed in the Sea of Marmara Region, one of the most densely populated parts of Europe and rated at high seismic risk level since the 1999 Izmit and Duzce devastating earthquakes. Besides the seismic threat, landslides in Turkey and in this region constitute an important source of loss. The 1999 Earthquake caused extensive landslides while tsunami effects were observed during the post-event surveys in several places along the coasts of the Izmit bay. The 6th Work Package of MARSITE project gathers 9 research groups to study earthquake-induced landslides focusing on two sub-regional areas of high interest. First, the Cekmece-Avcilar peninsula, located westwards of Istanbul, is a highly urbanized concentrated landslide prone area, showing high susceptibility to both rainfalls while affected by very significant seismic site effects. Second, the off-shore entrance of the Izmit Gulf, close to the termination of the surface rupture of the 1999 earthquake

  6. Earthquake Hazard and Segmented Fault Evolution, Hat Creek Fault, Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakeslee, M. W.; Kattenhorn, S. A.

    2010-12-01

    Precise insight into surface rupture and the evolution and mechanical interaction of segmented normal fault systems is critical for assessing the potential seismic hazard. The Hat Creek fault is a ~35 km long, NNW trending segmented normal fault system located on the western boundary of the Modoc Plateau and within the extending backarc basin of the Cascadia subduction zone in northern California. The Hat Creek fault has a prominent surface rupture showing evidence of multiple events in the past 15 ka, although there have been no historic earthquakes. In response to interactions with volcanic activity, the fault system has progressively migrated several km westward, causing older scarps to become seemingly inactive, and producing three distinct, semi-parallel scarps with different ages. The oldest scarp, designated the “Rim”, is the farthest west and has up to 352 m of throw. The relatively younger “Pali” scarp has up to 174 m of throw. The young “Active” scarp has a maximum throw of 65 m in the 24±6 ka Hat Creek basalt, with 20 m of throw in ~15 ka glacial gravels (i.e., a Holocene slip rate of ~1.3 mm/yr). Changes in the geometry and kinematics of the separate scarps during the faulting history imply the orientation of the stress field has rotated clockwise, now inducing oblique right-lateral motion. Previous studies suggested that the Active scarp consists of 7 left-stepping segments with a cumulative length of 23.5 km. We advocate that the Active scarp is actually composed of 8 or 9 segments and extends 4 km longer than previous estimates. This addition to the active portion of the fault is based on detailed mapping of a young surface rupture in the northern portion of the fault system. This ~30 m high young scarp offsets lavas that erupted from Cinder Butte, a low shield volcano, but has a similar geometry and properties as the Active scarp in the Hat Creek basalt. At its northern end, the Active scarp terminates at Cinder Butte. Our mapping

  7. Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment of House Constructions in Himalayas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ila Gupta,

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The entire Himalayan range is highly prone to earthquake s and the latest Kashmir earthquake (October 08, 2005 has once again drawn our attention to the highly vulnerable Himalayan settlements. Narcndranagar block of the Himalayan state of Uttaranchal lies in seismic zone IV of the seismic zoning map of India. Like in other hilly areas Narendranagar block also witnessed the traditional practice of house construction being replaced by modern construction materials and practices without the knowledge of earthquake resistant techniques rendering the present buildings more vulnerable to earthquakes. The objective of this paper is to assess the vulnerability of the buildings so that corrective measures can be taken to minimize the destruction during future earthquakes. Types of buildings observed in the entire block with different combinations of materials and their earthquake behaviours are explained. The existing structures are grouped into vulnerability categories Vl , V2 and V3 as per the descriptions provided in the MSK (Medvedev - Sponheaer - Karnik Intensity Scale. Damage estimation for a hypothetical earthquake is carried out for the Narcndranagar block. Conclusions and recommendations suggesting use of such studies in all earth quake prone areas of the Trans Himalayan region arc provided.

  8. Mine aftershocks and implications for seismic hazard assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kgarume, T

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available , with the exception of Båth’s law) as natural earthquake aftershocks do. This analysis was used to approximate the time periods when the seismic hazard due to aftershocks has decreased to background levels. These time periods can be used to draw guidelines governing...

  9. Comprehensive seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    An updated earthquake catalogue was collected from various national and international seismological agencies for the period from 1731 to 2011. The homogenization, declustering and data completeness analysis of events have been carried out before hazard evaluation. Seismicity parameters have been estimated using ...

  10. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of NW and central ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the Assam Earthquake of 1950 (M=8.5). It is important to carry out seismic hazard analysis of the region because of its high level of natural seismicity and the presence of segments of major longitudinal tectonic boundary thrusts, namely the Main Central Trust (MCT) and the Main. Boundary Thrust (MBT) along with various ...

  11. Final Report: Seismic Hazard Assessment at the PGDP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Zhinmeng [KY Geological Survey, Univ of KY

    2007-06-01

    Selecting a level of seismic hazard at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant for policy considerations and engineering design is not an easy task because it not only depends on seismic hazard, but also on seismic risk and other related environmental, social, and economic issues. Seismic hazard is the main focus. There is no question that there are seismic hazards at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant because of its proximity to several known seismic zones, particularly the New Madrid Seismic Zone. The issues in estimating seismic hazard are (1) the methods being used and (2) difficulty in characterizing the uncertainties of seismic sources, earthquake occurrence frequencies, and ground-motion attenuation relationships. This report summarizes how input data were derived, which methodologies were used, and what the hazard estimates at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant are.

  12. Kauai Test Facility hazards assessment document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swihart, A.

    1995-05-01

    The Department of Energy Order 55003A requires facility-specific hazards assessment be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the Kauai Test Facility, Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii. The Kauai Test Facility's chemical and radiological inventories were screened according to potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distance to the Early Severe Health Effects threshold is 4.2 kilometers. The highest emergency classification is a General Emergency at the open-quotes Main Complexclose quotes and a Site Area Emergency at the Kokole Point Launch Site. The Emergency Planning Zone for the open-quotes Main Complexclose quotes is 5 kilometers. The Emergency Planning Zone for the Kokole Point Launch Site is the Pacific Missile Range Facility's site boundary

  13. Elevation uncertainty in coastal inundation hazard assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesch, Dean B.; Cheval, Sorin

    2012-01-01

    Coastal inundation has been identified as an important natural hazard that affects densely populated and built-up areas (Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction, 2008). Inundation, or coastal flooding, can result from various physical processes, including storm surges, tsunamis, intense precipitation events, and extreme high tides. Such events cause quickly rising water levels. When rapidly rising water levels overwhelm flood defenses, especially in heavily populated areas, the potential of the hazard is realized and a natural disaster results. Two noteworthy recent examples of such natural disasters resulting from coastal inundation are the Hurricane Katrina storm surge in 2005 along the Gulf of Mexico coast in the United States, and the tsunami in northern Japan in 2011. Longer term, slowly varying processes such as land subsidence (Committee on Floodplain Mapping Technologies, 2007) and sea-level rise also can result in coastal inundation, although such conditions do not have the rapid water level rise associated with other flooding events. Geospatial data are a critical resource for conducting assessments of the potential impacts of coastal inundation, and geospatial representations of the topography in the form of elevation measurements are a primary source of information for identifying the natural and human components of the landscape that are at risk. Recently, the quantity and quality of elevation data available for the coastal zone have increased markedly, and this availability facilitates more detailed and comprehensive hazard impact assessments.

  14. Kauai Test Facility hazards assessment document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swihart, A

    1995-05-01

    The Department of Energy Order 55003A requires facility-specific hazards assessment be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the Kauai Test Facility, Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii. The Kauai Test Facility`s chemical and radiological inventories were screened according to potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distance to the Early Severe Health Effects threshold is 4.2 kilometers. The highest emergency classification is a General Emergency at the {open_quotes}Main Complex{close_quotes} and a Site Area Emergency at the Kokole Point Launch Site. The Emergency Planning Zone for the {open_quotes}Main Complex{close_quotes} is 5 kilometers. The Emergency Planning Zone for the Kokole Point Launch Site is the Pacific Missile Range Facility`s site boundary.

  15. Source of 1629 Banda Mega-Thrust Earthquake and Tsunami: Implications for Tsunami Hazard Evaluation in Eastern Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, J. R.; Liu, Z.; Harris, R. A.; Fisher, T. L.

    2011-12-01

    Using Dutch records of geophysical events in Indonesia over the past 400 years, and tsunami modeling, we identify tsunami sources that have caused severe devastation in the past and are likely to reoccur in the near future. The earthquake history of Western Indonesia has received much attention since the 2004 Sumatra earthquakes and subsequent events. However, strain rates along a variety of plate boundary segments are just as high in eastern Indonesia where the earthquake history has not been investigated. Due to the rapid population growth in this region it is essential and urgent to evaluate its earthquake and tsunami hazards. Arthur Wichmann's 'Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago' shows that there were 30 significant earthquakes and 29 tsunami between 1629 to 1877. One of the largest and best documented is the great earthquake and tsunami effecting the Banda islands on 1 August, 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15 m tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after the earthquake. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use a numerical simulation of the tsunami to locate the potential sources of the 1629 mega-thrust event and evaluate the tsunami hazard in Eastern Indonesia. The numerical simulation was tested to establish the tsunami run-up amplification factor for this region by tsunami simulations of the 1992 Flores Island (Hidayat et al., 1995) and 2006 Java (Katoet al., 2007) earthquake events. The results yield a tsunami run-up amplification factor of 1.5 and 3, respectively. However, the Java earthquake is a unique case of slow rupture that was hardly felt. The fault parameters of recent earthquakes in the Banda region are used for the models. The modeling narrows the possibilities of mega-thrust events the size of the one

  16. Preliminary quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties and damages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badal, J.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; González, Á.

    2005-01-01

    Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence...... of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number...... the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out...

  17. Site specific seismic hazard analysis and determination of response spectra of Kolkata for maximum considered earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiuly, Amit; Sahu, R. B.; Mandal, Saroj

    2017-06-01

    This paper presents site specific seismic hazard analysis of Kolkata city, former capital of India and present capital of state West Bengal, situated on the world’s largest delta island, Bengal basin. For this purpose, peak ground acceleration (PGA) for a maximum considered earthquake (MCE) at bedrock level has been estimated using an artificial neural network (ANN) based attenuation relationship developed on the basis of synthetic ground motion data for the region. Using the PGA corresponding to the MCE, a spectrum compatible acceleration time history at bedrock level has been generated by using a wavelet based computer program, WAVEGEN. This spectrum compatible time history at bedrock level has been converted to the same at surface level using SHAKE2000 for 144 borehole locations in the study region. Using the predicted values of PGA and PGV at the surface, corresponding contours for the region have been drawn. For the MCE, the PGA at bedrock level of Kolkata city has been obtained as 0.184 g, while that at the surface level varies from 0.22 g to 0.37 g. Finally, Kolkata has been subdivided into eight seismic subzones, and for each subzone a response spectrum equation has been derived using polynomial regression analysis. This will be very helpful for structural and geotechnical engineers to design safe and economical earthquake resistant structures.

  18. Marine and land active-source seismic investigation of geothermal potential, tectonic structure, and earthquake hazards in Pyramid Lake, Nevada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eisses, A.; Kell, A.; Kent, G. [UNR; Driscoll, N. [UCSD; Karlin, R.; Baskin, R. [USGS; Louie, J. [UNR; Pullammanappallil, S. [Optim

    2016-08-01

    Amy Eisses, Annie M. Kell, Graham Kent, Neal W. Driscoll, Robert E. Karlin, Robert L. Baskin, John N. Louie, Kenneth D. Smith, Sathish Pullammanappallil, 2011, Marine and land active-source seismic investigation of geothermal potential, tectonic structure, and earthquake hazards in Pyramid Lake, Nevada: presented at American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, Dec. 5-9, abstract NS14A-08.

  19. An Arduino project to record ground motion and to learn on earthquake hazard at high school

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraò, Angela; Barnaba, Carla; Clocchiatti, Marco; Zuliani, David

    2015-04-01

    Through a multidisciplinary work that integrates Technology education with Earth Sciences, we implemented an educational program to raise the students' awareness of seismic hazard and to disseminate good practices of earthquake safety. Using free software and low-cost open hardware, the students of a senior class of the high school Liceo Paschini in Tolmezzo (NE Italy) implemented a seismograph using the Arduino open-source electronics platform and the ADXL345 sensors to emulate a low cost seismometer (e.g. O-NAVI sensor of the Quake-Catcher Network, http://qcn.stanford.edu). To accomplish their task the students were addressed to use the web resources for technical support and troubleshooting. Shell scripts, running on local computers under Linux OS, controlled the process of recording and display data. The main part of the experiment was documented using the DokuWiki style. Some propaedeutic lessons in computer sciences and electronics were needed to build up the necessary skills of the students and to fill in the gap of their background knowledge. In addition lectures by seismologists and laboratory activity allowed the class to exploit different aspects of the physics of the earthquake and particularly of the seismic waves, and to become familiar with the topics of seismic hazard through an inquiry-based learning. The Arduino seismograph achieved can be used for educational purposes and it can display tremors on the local network of the school. For sure it can record the ground motion due to a seismic event that can occur in the area, but further improvements are necessary for a quantitative analysis of the recorded signals.

  20. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP): Rift Processes and Earthquake Hazards in the Salton Trough (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hole, J. A.; Stock, J. M.; Fuis, G. S.; Rymer, M. J.; Murphy, J. M.; Sickler, R. R.; Criley, C. J.; Goldman, M.; Catchings, R. D.; Ricketts, J. W.; Gonzalez-Fernandez, A.; Driscoll, N.; Kent, G.; Harding, A. J.; Klemperer, S. L.

    2009-12-01

    The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) and coordinated projects will acquire seismic data in and across the Salton Trough in southern California and northern Mexico, including the Coachella, Imperial, and Mexicali Valleys. These projects address both rifting processes at the northern end of the Gulf of California extensional province and earthquake hazards at the southern end of the San Andreas Fault system. In the central Salton Trough, North American lithosphere appears to have been rifted completely apart. Based primarily on a 1979 seismic refraction project, the 20-22 km thick crust is apparently composed entirely of new crust added by magmatism from below and sedimentation from above. The new data will constrain the style of continental breakup, the role and mode of magmatism, the effects of rapid Colorado River sedimentation upon extension and magmatism, and the partitioning of oblique extension. The southernmost San Andreas Fault is considered at high risk of producing a large damaging earthquake, yet structures of the fault and adjacent basins are poorly constrained. To improve hazard models, SSIP will image the geometry of the San Andreas and Imperial Faults, structure of sedimentary basins in the Salton Trough, and three-dimensional seismic velocity of the crust and uppermost mantle. SSIP and collaborating projects have been funded by several different programs at NSF and the USGS. These projects include seven lines of land refraction and low-fold reflection data, airguns and OBS data in the Salton Sea, coordinated fieldwork for onshore-offshore and 3-D data, and a densely sampled line of broadband stations across the trough. Fieldwork is tentatively scheduled for 2010. Preliminary work in 2009 included calibration shots in the Imperial Valley that quantified strong ground motion and proved lack of harm to agricultural irrigation tile drains from explosive shots. Piggyback and complementary studies are encouraged.

  1. Long aftershock sequences in North China and Central US: implications for hazard assessment in mid-continents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Mian; Luo, Gang; Wang, Hui; Stein, Seth

    2014-02-01

    Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811-1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.

  2. Implications from palaeoseismological investigations at the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (Vienna Basin, Austria) for seismic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintersberger, Esther; Decker, Kurt; Lomax, Johanna; Lüthgens, Christopher

    2018-02-01

    Intraplate regions characterized by low rates of seismicity are challenging for seismic hazard assessment, mainly for two reasons. Firstly, evaluation of historic earthquake catalogues may not reveal all active faults that contribute to regional seismic hazard. Secondly, slip rate determination is limited by sparse geomorphic preservation of slowly moving faults. In the Vienna Basin (Austria), moderate historical seismicity (Imax, obs / Mmax, obs = 8/5.2) concentrates along the left-lateral strike-slip Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF). In contrast, several normal faults branching out from the VBTF show neither historical nor instrumental earthquake records, although geomorphological data indicate Quaternary displacement along those faults. Here, located about 15 km outside of Vienna, the Austrian capital, we present a palaeoseismological dataset of three trenches that cross one of these splay faults, the Markgrafneusiedl Fault (MF), in order to evaluate its seismic potential. Comparing the observations of the different trenches, we found evidence for five to six surface-breaking earthquakes during the last 120 kyr, with the youngest event occurring at around 14 ka. The derived surface displacements lead to magnitude estimates ranging between 6.2 ± 0.5 and 6.8 ± 0.4. Data can be interpreted by two possible slip models, with slip model 1 showing more regular recurrence intervals of about 20-25 kyr between the earthquakes with M ≥ 6.5 and slip model 2 indicating that such earthquakes cluster in two time intervals in the last 120 kyr. Direct correlation between trenches favours slip model 2 as the more plausible option. Trench observations also show that structural and sedimentological records of strong earthquakes with small surface offset have only low preservation potential. Therefore, the earthquake frequency for magnitudes between 6 and 6.5 cannot be constrained by the trenching records. Vertical slip rates of 0.02-0.05 mm a-1 derived from the

  3. Using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis in Assessing Seismic Risk for Taipei City and New Taipei City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Ming-Kai; Wang, Yu-Ju; Cheng, Chin-Tung; Ma, Kuo-Fong; Ke, Siao-Syun

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we evaluate the seismic hazard and risk for Taipei city and new Taipei city, which are important municipalities and the most populous cities in Taiwan. The evaluation of seismic risk involves the combination of three main components: probabilistic seismic hazard model, exposure model defining the spatial distribution of elements exposed to the hazard and vulnerability functions capable of describing the distribution of percentage of loss for a set of intensity measure levels. Seismic hazard at Taipei city and New Taipei city assumed as the hazard maps are presented in terms of ground motion values expected to be exceed at a 10% probability level in 50 years (return period 475 years) and a 2% probability level in 50 years (return period 2475 years) according to the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM), which assesses two seismic hazard models for Taiwan. The first model adopted the source parameters of 38 seismogenic structures identified by the TEM geologists. The other model considered 33 active faults and was published by the Central Geological Survey (CGS), Taiwan, in 2010. The 500m by 500m Grid-based building data were selected for the evaluation which capable of providing detail information about the location, value and vulnerability classification of the exposed elements. The results from this study were evaluated by the Openquake engine, the open-source software for seismic risk and hazard assessment developed within the global earthquake model (GEM) initiative. Our intention is to give the first attempt on the modeling the seismic risk from hazard in an open platform for Taiwan. An analysis through disaggregation of hazard components will be also made to prioritize the risk for further policy making.

  4. Seismic rupture study using near-source data: application to seismic hazard assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez, Bruno

    2000-01-01

    This work presents seismic source studies using near-field data. In accordance with the quality and the quantity of available data we developed and applied various methods to characterize the seismic source. Macro-seismic data are used to verify if simple and robust methods used on recent instrumental earthquakes may provide a good tool to calibrate historical events in France. These data are often used to characterize earthquakes to be taken into account for seismic hazard assessment in moderate seismicity regions. Geodetic data (SAR, GPS) are used to estimate the slip distribution on the fault during the 1992, Landers, California earthquake. These data are also used to precise the location and the geometry of the main events of the 1997, Colfiorito, central Italy, earthquake sequence. Finally, the strong motions contain the most complete information about rupture process. These data are used to discriminate between two possible fault planes of the 1999, north India, Chamoli earthquake. The strong motions recorded close to the 1999, Mexico, Oaxaca earthquake are used to constrain the rupture history. Strong motions a.re also used in combination with geodetic data to access the rupture history of the Landers earthquake and the main events of the Colfiorito seismic sequence. For the Landers earthquake, the data quality and complementarity offered the possibility to describe the rupture development with accuracy. The large heterogeneities in both slip amplitude and rupture velocity variations suggest that the rupture propagates by breaking successive asperities rather than by propagating like a pulse at constant velocity. The rupture front slows as it encounters barriers and accelerates within main asperities. (author)

  5. Lateral spread hazard mapping of the northern Salt Lake Valley, Utah, for a M7.0 scenario earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, M.J.; Bartlett, S.F.; Solomon, B.J.

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology used to develop a lateral spread-displacement hazard map for northern Salt Lake Valley, Utah, using a scenario M7.0 earthquake occurring on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault. The mapping effort is supported by a substantial amount of geotechnical, geologic, and topographic data compiled for the Salt Lake Valley, Utah. ArcGIS?? routines created for the mapping project then input this information to perform site-specific lateral spread analyses using methods developed by Bartlett and Youd (1992) and Youd et al. (2002) at individual borehole locations. The distributions of predicted lateral spread displacements from the boreholes located spatially within a geologic unit were subsequently used to map the hazard for that particular unit. The mapped displacement zones consist of low hazard (0-0.1 m), moderate hazard (0.1-0.3 m), high hazard (0.3-1.0 m), and very high hazard (> 1.0 m). As expected, the produced map shows the highest hazard in the alluvial deposits at the center of the valley and in sandy deposits close to the fault. This mapping effort is currently being applied to the southern part of the Salt Lake Valley, Utah, and probabilistic maps are being developed for the entire valley. ?? 2007, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  6. Seismic hazard assessment of Oregon highway truck routes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    This research project developed a seismic risk assessment model along the major truck routes in Oregon. The study had adopted federally : developed software tools called Risk for Earthquake Damage to Roadway Systems (REDARS2) and HAZUS-MH. The model ...

  7. Guidance document on practices to model and implement Earthquake hazards in extended PSA (final version). Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decker, K.; Hirata, K.; Groudev, P.

    2016-01-01

    The current report provides guidance for the assessment of seismo-tectonic hazards in level 1 and 2 PSA. The objective is to review existing guidance, identify methodological challenges, and to propose novel guidance on key issues. Guidance for the assessment of vibratory ground motion and fault capability comprises the following: - listings of data required for the hazard assessment and methods to estimate data quality and completeness; - in-depth discussion of key input parameters required for hazard models; - discussions on commonly applied hazard assessment methodologies; - references to recent advances of science and technology. Guidance on the assessment of correlated or coincident hazards comprises of chapters on: - screening of correlated hazards; - assessment of correlated hazards (natural and man-made); - assessment of coincident hazards. (authors)

  8. Assessment of External Hazards at Radioactive Waste and Used Fuel Management Facilities - 13505

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerchikov, Mark; Schneider, Glenn; Khan, Badi; Alderson, Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    One of the key lessons from the Fukushima accident is the importance of having a comprehensive identification and evaluation of risks posed by external events to nuclear facilities. While the primary focus has been on nuclear power plants, the Canadian nuclear industry has also been updating hazard assessments for radioactive waste and used fuel management facilities to ensure that lessons learnt from Fukushima are addressed. External events are events that originate either physically outside the nuclear site or outside its control. They include natural events, such as high winds, lightning, earthquakes or flood due to extreme rainfall. The approaches that have been applied to the identification and assessment of external hazards in Canada are presented and analyzed. Specific aspects and considerations concerning hazards posed to radioactive waste and used fuel management operations are identified. Relevant hazard identification techniques are described, which draw upon available regulatory guidance and standard assessment techniques such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOPs) and 'What-if' analysis. Consideration is given to ensuring that hazard combinations (for example: high winds and flooding due to rainfall) are properly taken into account. Approaches that can be used to screen out external hazards, through a combination of frequency and impact assessments, are summarized. For those hazards that cannot be screened out, a brief overview of methods that can be used to conduct more detailed hazard assessments is also provided. The lessons learnt from the Fukushima accident have had a significant impact on specific aspects of the approaches used to hazard assessment for waste management. Practical examples of the effect of these impacts are provided. (authors)

  9. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Onur, Tuna [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Gok, Rengin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Abdulnaby, Wathiq [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Shakir, Ammar M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Mahdi, Hanan [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Numan, Nazar M.S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Al-Shukri, Haydar [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Chlaib, Hussein K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ameen, Taher H. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Abd, Najah A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-05-06

    Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) form the basis for most contemporary seismic provisions in building codes around the world. The current building code of Iraq was published in 1997. An update to this edition is in the process of being released. However, there are no national PSHA studies in Iraq for the new building code to refer to for seismic loading in terms of spectral accelerations. As an interim solution, the new draft building code was considering to refer to PSHA results produced in the late 1990s as part of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Giardini et al., 1999). However these results are: a) more than 15 years outdated, b) PGA-based only, necessitating rough conversion factors to calculate spectral accelerations at 0.3s and 1.0s for seismic design, and c) at a probability level of 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, not the 2% that the building code requires. Hence there is a pressing need for a new, updated PSHA for Iraq.

  10. Volcanic hazard assessment in western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chester, David K.; Dibben, Christopher J. L.; Duncan, Angus M.

    2002-06-01

    Volcanology has been in the past and in many respects remains a subject dominated by pure research grounded in the earth sciences. Over the past 30 years a paradigm shift has occurred in hazard assessment which has been aided by significant changes in the social theory of natural hazards and the first-hand experience gained in the 1990s by volcanologists working on projects conceived during the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Today much greater stress is placed on human vulnerability, the potential for marginalisation of disadvantaged individuals and social groups, and the requirement to make applied volcanology sensitive to the characteristics of local demography, economy, culture and politics. During the IDNDR a methodology, broadly similar to environmental impact analysis, has emerged as the preferred method for studying human vulnerability and risk assessment in volcanically active regions. The characteristics of this new methodology are discussed and the progress which has been made in innovating it on the European Union laboratory volcanoes located in western Europe is reviewed. Furnas (São Miguel, Azores) and Vesuvius in Italy are used as detailed case studies.

  11. RiskScape Volcano: Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligne, Natalia; King, Andrew; Jolly, Gill; Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Tom; Lindsay, Jan

    2013-04-01

    RiskScape is a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand that models the risk and impact of various natural hazards on a given built environment. RiskScape has a modular structure: the hazard module models hazard exposure (e.g., ash thickness at a given location), the asset module catalogues assets (built environment, infrastructure, and people) and their attributes exposed to the hazard, and the vulnerability module models the consequences of asset exposure to the hazard. Hazards presently included in RiskScape are earthquakes, river floods, tsunamis, windstorms, and ash from volcanic eruptions (specifically from Ruapehu). Here we present our framework for incorporating other volcanic hazards (e.g., pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, lahars, ground deformation) into RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability. We also will discuss the challenges of evaluating risk for 'point source' (e.g., stratovolcanoes) vs 'diffuse' (e.g., volcanic fields) volcanism using Ruapehu and the Auckland volcanic field as examples. Once operational, RiskScape Volcano will be a valuable resource both in New Zealand and internationally as a practical tool for evaluating risk and also as an example for how to predict the consequences of volcanic eruptions on both rural and urban environments.

  12. A proposal of surveying and evaluating system of active faults for earthquake assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyakoshi, Katsuyoshi; Ueta, Keiichi; Hataya; Ryuta; Abe, Shintaro; Miura, Daisuke; Hamada, Takaomi; Aoyagi, Yasuhira; Inoue, Daiei

    2004-01-01

    -W direction fault had been found as an active fault through the airphoto study before the earthquake. Also the recurrence interval of the active of the Chelungpu Fault near the Shihkang Dam where the fault bends to the E-W direction, is estimated to be in the order of 1,000 to 2,000 years from age data acquired from the fault exposure. 3. Active fault study on the 2000 Western Tottori Earthquake area: In order to evaluate the fault activity associated the 2000 Western Tottori Earthquake, we carried out aerial photograph interpretations of fault landforms, geological investigation and trenching study in the epicentral area. As the results of the aerial photograph interpretation, we found some northwest-southeast trending lineaments with sinistral offsets of valleys and ridges in the epicentral area. Above lineaments are sub-parallel and the total length of the lineaments is about 23 km. The fracture zones with fault gouge and horizontal striations on sharp fault planes were found along the lineaments, the fact also suggests that the lineaments coincide with the active fault. According to the outcrop exposure of the fault and trench excavation at Kusumi, we found the evidence of the recent surface-ruptured event that had occurred sometime between 770-1260 A. D. Hence there is possibility to estimate the magnitude 7 class earthquake before the 2000 Western Tottori Earthquake by the lineament length of about 23 km. 4. A Proposal of Earthquake Hazard Assessment System by Fault Segmentation: Procedure to evaluate the earthquake magnitude by fault segmentation is proposed as follows, (1) Fault segmentation with rupture length of historical earthquake by literature survey (Earthquake segment). (2) Fault segmentation with geomorphic and geologic investigation (Geometric segment and Structural geologic segment). (3) Investigation on the fault segmentation and fault behavior (behavior segment). (4) Evaluation of the fault magnitude. (author)

  13. The Coastal Hazard Wheel system for coastal multi-hazard assessment & management in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2015-01-01

    screening and management. The system is developed to assess the main coastal hazards in a single process and covers the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding. The system was initially presented in 2012 and based on a range of test......This paper presents the complete Coastal Hazard Wheel (CHW) system, developed for multi-hazard-assessment and multi-hazard-management of coastal areas worldwide under a changing climate. The system is designed as a low-tech tool that can be used in areas with limited data availability......-applications and feedback from coastal experts, the system has been further refined and developed into a complete hazard management tool. This paper therefore covers the coastal classification system used by the CHW, a standardized assessment procedure for implementation of multi-hazard-assessments, technical guidance...

  14. GPS Imaging of Time-Variable Earthquake Hazard: The Hilton Creek Fault, Long Valley California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, W. C.; Blewitt, G.

    2016-12-01

    The Hilton Creek Fault, in Long Valley, California is a down-to-the-east normal fault that bounds the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada/Great Valley microplate, and lies half inside and half outside the magmatically active caldera. Despite the dense coverage with GPS networks, the rapid and time-variable surface deformation attributable to sporadic magmatic inflation beneath the resurgent dome makes it difficult to use traditional geodetic methods to estimate the slip rate of the fault. While geologic studies identify cumulative offset, constrain timing of past earthquakes, and constrain a Quaternary slip rate to within 1-5 mm/yr, it is not currently possible to use geologic data to evaluate how the potential for slip correlates with transient caldera inflation. To estimate time-variable seismic hazard of the fault we estimate its instantaneous slip rate from GPS data using a new set of algorithms for robust estimation of velocity and strain rate fields and fault slip rates. From the GPS time series, we use the robust MIDAS algorithm to obtain time series of velocity that are highly insensitive to the effects of seasonality, outliers and steps in the data. We then use robust imaging of the velocity field to estimate a gridded time variable velocity field. Then we estimate fault slip rate at each time using a new technique that forms ad-hoc block representations that honor fault geometries, network complexity, connectivity, but does not require labor-intensive drawing of block boundaries. The results are compared to other slip rate estimates that have implications for hazard over different time scales. Time invariant long term seismic hazard is proportional to the long term slip rate accessible from geologic data. Contemporary time-invariant hazard, however, may differ from the long term rate, and is estimated from the geodetic velocity field that has been corrected for the effects of magmatic inflation in the caldera using a published model of a dipping ellipsoidal

  15. Microneedle Manufacture: Assessing Hazards and Control Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Martin

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Transdermal microneedles have captured the attention of researchers in relation to a variety of applications, and silicone-based moulds required to produce these systems are now widely available and can be readily manufactured on the lab bench. There is however some concern over the potential for accidental needlestick injuries and, as with any sharp hazard, the potential for blood-borne pathogen transmission must be considered. This follows from recent governmental concerns over the use of microneedle systems in dermabrasion. Despite the piercing nature of the microneedle patch sharing many similarities with conventional hypodermic needles, there are notable factors that mitigate the risk of contamination. A range of microneedle systems has been prepared using micromoulding techniques, and their puncture capability assessed. A critical assessment of the potential for accidental puncture and the control measures needed to ensure safe utilisation of the patch systems is presented.

  16. Assessing community vulnerabilities to natural hazards on the Island of Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishioka, Chris; Delparte, Donna

    2010-05-01

    The island of Hawaii is susceptible to numerous natural hazards such as tsunamis, flooding, lava flow, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, wildfires and storm surge. The impact of a natural disaster on the island's communities has the potential to endanger peoples' lives and threaten critical infrastructure, homes, businesses and economic drivers such as tourism. A Geographic Information System (GIS) has the ability to assess community vulnerabilities by examining the spatial relationships between hazard zones, socioeconomic infrastructure and demographic data. By drawing together existing datasets, GIS was used to examine a number of community vulnerabilities. Key areas of interest were government services, utilities, property assets, industry and transportation. GIS was also used to investigate population dynamics in hazard zones. Identification of community vulnerabilities from GIS analysis can support mitigation measures and assist planning and response measures to natural hazards.

  17. Seismic hazard assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa using geodetic strain rate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poggi, Valerio; Pagani, Marco; Weatherill, Graeme; Garcia, Julio; Durrheim, Raymond J.; Mavonga Tuluka, Georges

    2016-04-01

    The East African Rift System (EARS) is the major active tectonic feature of the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Although the seismicity level of such a divergent plate boundary can be described as moderate, several earthquakes have been reported in historical times causing a non-negligible level of damage, albeit mostly due to the high vulnerability of the local buildings and structures. Formulation and enforcement of national seismic codes is therefore an essential future risk mitigation strategy. Nonetheless, a reliable risk assessment cannot be done without the calibration of an updated seismic hazard model for the region. Unfortunately, the major issue in assessing seismic hazard in Sub-Saharan Africa is the lack of basic information needed to construct source and ground motion models. The historical earthquake record is largely incomplete, while instrumental catalogue is complete down to sufficient magnitude only for a relatively short time span. In addition, mapping of seimogenically active faults is still an on-going program. Recent studies have identified major seismogenic lineaments, but there is substantial lack of kinematic information for intermediate-to-small scale tectonic features, information that is essential for the proper calibration of earthquake recurrence models. To compensate this lack of information, we experiment the use of a strain rate model recently developed by Stamps et al. (2015) in the framework of a earthquake hazard and risk project along the EARS supported by USAID and jointly carried out by GEM and AfricaArray. We use the inferred geodetic strain rates to derive estimates of total scalar moment release, subsequently used to constrain earthquake recurrence relationships for both area (as distributed seismicity) and fault source models. The rates obtained indirectly from strain rates and more classically derived from the available seismic catalogues are then compared and combined into a unique mixed earthquake recurrence model

  18. Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Assessment of Dry Cask Structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bencturk, Bora [Univ. of Houston, TX (United States); Padgett, Jamie [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United States); Uddin, Rizwan [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States).

    2017-01-10

    systems the concrete shall not only provide shielding but insures stability of the upright canister, facilitates anchoring, allows ventilation, and provides physical protection against theft, severe weather and natural (seismic) as well as man-made events (blast incidences). Given the need to remain functional for 40 years or even longer in case of interim storage, the concrete outerpack and the internal canister components need to be evaluated with regard to their long-term ability to perform their intended design functions. Just as evidenced by deteriorating concrete bridges, there are reported visible degradation mechanisms of dry storage systems especially when high corrosive environments are considered in maritime locations. The degradation of reinforced concrete is caused by multiple physical and chemical mechanisms, which may be summarized under the heading of environmental aging. The underlying hygro-thermal transport processes are accelerated by irradiation effects, hence creep and shrinkage need to include the effect of chloride penetration, alkali aggregate reaction as well as corrosion of the reinforcing steel. In light of the above, the two main objectives of this project are to (1) develop a probabilistic multi-hazard assessment framework, and (2) through experimental and numerical research perform a comprehensive assessment under combined earthquake loads and aging induced deterioration, which will also provide data for the development and validation of the probabilistic framework.

  19. The key role of eyewitnesses in rapid earthquake impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, Rémy; Steed, Robert; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Roussel, Frédéric; Etivant, Caroline

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainties in rapid earthquake impact models are intrinsically large even when excluding potential indirect losses (fires, landslides, tsunami…). The reason is that they are based on several factors which are themselves difficult to constrain, such as the geographical distribution of shaking intensity, building type inventory and vulnerability functions. The difficulties can be illustrated by two boundary cases. For moderate (around M6) earthquakes, the size of potential damage zone and the epicentral location uncertainty share comparable dimension of about 10-15km. When such an earthquake strikes close to an urban area, like in 1999, in Athens (M5.9), earthquake location uncertainties alone can lead to dramatically different impact scenario. Furthermore, for moderate magnitude, the overall impact is often controlled by individual accidents, like in 2002 in Molise, Italy (M5.7), in Bingol, Turkey (M6.4) in 2003 or in Christchurch, New Zealand (M6.3) where respectively 23 out of 30, 84 out of 176 and 115 out of 185 of the causalities perished in a single building failure. Contrastingly, for major earthquakes (M>7), the point source approximation is not valid anymore, and impact assessment requires knowing exactly where the seismic rupture took place, whether it was unilateral, bilateral etc.… and this information is not readily available directly after the earthquake's occurrence. In-situ observations of actual impact provided by eyewitnesses can dramatically reduce impact models uncertainties. We will present the overall strategy developed at the EMSC which comprises of crowdsourcing and flashsourcing techniques, the development of citizen operated seismic networks, and the use of social networks to engage with eyewitnesses within minutes of an earthquake occurrence. For instance, testimonies are collected through online questionnaires available in 32 languages and automatically processed in maps of effects. Geo-located pictures are collected and then

  20. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project: Investigating Earthquake Hazards in the Salton Trough, Southern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuis, G. S.; Goldman, M.; Sickler, R. R.; Catchings, R. D.; Rymer, M. J.; Rose, E. J.; Murphy, J. M.; Butcher, L. A.; Cotton, J. A.; Criley, C. J.; Croker, D. S.; Emmons, I.; Ferguson, A. J.; Gardner, M. A.; Jensen, E. G.; McClearn, R.; Loughran, C. L.; Slayday-Criley, C. J.; Svitek, J. F.; Hole, J. A.; Stock, J. M.; Skinner, S. M.; Driscoll, N. W.; Harding, A. J.; Babcock, J. M.; Kent, G.; Kell, A. M.; Harder, S. H.

    2011-12-01

    The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) is a collaborative effort between academia and the U.S. Geological Survey to provide detailed, subsurface 3-D images of the Salton Trough of southern California and northern Mexico. From both active- and passive-source seismic data that were acquired both onshore and offshore (Salton Sea), the resulting images will provide insights into earthquake hazards, rift processes, and rift-transform interaction at the southern end of the San Andreas Fault system. The southernmost San Andreas Fault (SAF) is considered to be at high-risk of producing a large damaging earthquake, yet the structure of this and other regional faults and that of adjacent sedimentary basins is not currently well understood. Seismic data were acquired from 2 to 18 March 2011. One hundred and twenty-six borehole explosions (10-1400 kg yield) were detonated along seven profiles in the Salton Trough region, extending from area of Palm Springs, California, to the southwestern tip of Arizona. Airguns (1500 and 3500 cc) were fired along two profiles in the Salton Sea and at points in a 2-D array in the southern Salton Sea. Approximately 2800 seismometers were deployed at over 4200 locations throughout the Salton Trough region, and 48 ocean-bottom seismometers were deployed at 78 locations beneath the Salton Sea. Many of the onshore explosions were energetic enough to be recorded and located by the Southern California Seismograph Network. The geometry of the SAF has important implications for energy radiation in the next major rupture. Prior potential field, seismicity, and InSAR data indicate that the SAF may dip moderately to the northeast from the Salton Sea to Cajon Pass in the Transverse Ranges. Much of SSIP was designed to test models of this geometry.

  1. GNSS-monitoring of Natural Hazards: Ionospheric Detection of Earthquakes and Volcano Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shults, K.; Astafyeva, E.; Lognonne, P. H.

    2015-12-01

    During the last few decades earthquakes as sources of strong perturbations in the ionosphere have been reported by many researchers, and in the last few years the seismo-ionosphere coupling has been more and more discussed (e.g., Calais and Minster, 1998, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 105, 167-181; Afraimovich et al., 2010, Earth, Planets, Space, V.62, No.11, 899-904; Rolland et al., 2011, Earth Planets Space, 63, 853-857). Co-volcanic ionospheric perturbations have come under the scrutiny of science only in recent years but observations have already shown that mass and energy injections of volcanic activities can also excite oscillations in the ionosphere (Heki, 2006, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L14303; Dautermann et al., 2009, Geophys. Res., 114, B02202). The ionospheric perturbations are induced by acoustic and gravity waves generated in the neutral atmosphere by seismic source or volcano eruption. The upward propagating vibrations of the atmosphere interact with the plasma in the ionosphere by the particle collisions and excite variations of electron density detectable with dual-frequency receivers of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). In addition to co-seismic ionospheric disturbances (CID) observations, ionospheric GNSS measurements have recently proved to be useful to obtain ionospheric images for the seismic fault allowing to provide information on its' parameters and localization (Astafyeva et al., 2011, Geophys. Res. Letters, 38, L22104). This work describes how the GNSS signals can be used for monitoring of natural hazards on examples of the 9 March 2011 M7.3 Tohoku Foreshock and April 2015 M7.8 Nepal earthquake as well as the April 2015 Calbuco volcano eruptions. We also show that use of high-resolution GNSS data can aid to plot the ionospheric images of seismic fault.

  2. Physics-based forecasting of earthquake hazards associated with induced seismicity in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenbruch, C.; Weingarten, M.; Zoback, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    Traditional earthquake hazard maps rely on the pre-condition of long-term stationarity of seismicity related to large-scale tectonic processes. Thus, application of these methods to induced seismicity is inherently problematic since injection rates (and earthquake rates) can vary markedly in space and time. We present a physics-based method to forecast seismicity rates and the probability of magnitude exceedance associated with produced water injection induced seismicity in north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Our model incorporates spatial and temporal variations of wastewater injection rates, and a regional hydrologic model to predict pressure and pressure rate changes throughout the seismically active area. This model extends the work of Langenbruch and Zoback (Science Advances, 2016, 2017) and applies the Seismogenic Index model to produce physics-based forecasts of seismicity rates and maps of magnitude exceedance probabilities. Due to decreasing injection rates since mid-2015, pressure increases at depth are slowing down in most areas such that fewer pre-existing faults are expected to be pushed beyond stability. The seismic hazard in 2017 is significantly lower than in 2016. At the current level of wastewater injection the seismic hazard will continue to decrease through 2018 and beyond. In most parts of central Oklahoma the earthquake hazard is expected to approach the tectonic background level over the next five years. In some parts of northern Oklahoma further injection rate reductions might be required to approach this level within the same time period.

  3. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Point Lepreau Generating Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullin, D., E-mail: dmullin@nbpower.com [New Brunswick Power Corporation, Point Lepreau Generating Station, Point Lepreau (Canada); Alcinov, T.; Roussel, P.; Lavine, A.; Arcos, M.E.M.; Hanson, K.; Youngs, R., E-mail: trajce.alcinov@amecfw.com, E-mail: patrick.roussel@amecfw.com [AMEC Foster Wheeler Environment & Infrastructure, Dartmouth, NS (Canada)

    2015-07-01

    In 2012 the Geological Survey of Canada published a preliminary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment in Open File 7201 that presents the most up-to-date information on all potential tsunami sources in a probabilistic framework on a national level, thus providing the underlying basis for conducting site-specific tsunami hazard assessments. However, the assessment identified a poorly constrained hazard for the Atlantic Coastline and recommended further evaluation. As a result, NB Power has embarked on performing a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Point Lepreau Generating Station. This paper provides the methodology and progress or hazard evaluation results for Point Lepreau G.S. (author)

  4. Geophysical setting of the February 21, 2008 Mw 6 Wells earthquake, Nevada, and implications for earthquake hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponce, David A.; Watt, Janet T.; Bouligand, C.

    2011-01-01

    We utilize gravity and magnetic methods to investigate the regional geophysical setting of the Wells earthquake. In particular, we delineate major crustal structures that may have played a role in the location of the earthquake and discuss the geometry of a nearby sedimentary basin that may have contributed to observed ground shaking. The February 21, 2008 Mw 6.0 Wells earthquake, centered about 10 km northeast of Wells, Nevada, caused considerable damage to local buildings, especially in the historic old town area. The earthquake occurred on a previously unmapped normal fault and preliminary relocated events indicate a fault plane dipping about 55 degrees to the southeast. The epicenter lies near the intersection of major Basin and Range normal faults along the Ruby Mountains and Snake Mountains, and strike-slip faults in the southern Snake Mountains. Regionally, the Wells earthquake epicenter is aligned with a crustal-scale boundary along the edge of a basement gravity high that correlates to the Ruby Mountains fault zone. The Wells earthquake also occurred near a geophysically defined strike-slip fault that offsets buried plutonic rocks by about 30 km. In addition, a new depth-to-basement map, derived from the inversion of gravity data, indicates that the Wells earthquake and most of its associated aftershock sequence lie below a small oval- to rhomboid-shaped basin, that reaches a depth of about 2 km. Although the basin is of limited areal extent, it could have contributed to increased ground shaking in the vicinity of the city of Wells, Nevada, due to basin amplification of seismic waves.

  5. Rockfall Hazard Process Assessment : [Project Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    The Montana Department of Transportation (MDT) implemented its Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) between 2003 and 2005, obtaining information on the state's rock slopes and their associated hazards. The RHRS data facilitated decision-making in an ...

  6. Rockfall Hazard Process Assessment : Final Project Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    After a decade of using the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS), the Montana Department of Transportation (MDT) sought a reassessment of their rockfall hazard evaluation process. Their prior system was a slightly modified version of the RHRS and was...

  7. Assessment of impact of strong earthquakes to the global economy by example of Thoku event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatiana, Skufina; Peter, Skuf'in; Sergey, Baranov; Vera, Samarina; Taisiya, Shatalova

    2016-04-01

    We examine the economic consequences of strong earthquakes by example of M9 Tahoku one that occurred on March 11, 2011 close to the northeast shore of Japanese coast Honshu. This earthquake became the strongest in the whole history of the seismological observations in this part of the planet. The generated tsunami killed more than 15,700 people, damaged 332,395 buildings and 2,126 roads. The total economic loss in Japan was estimated at 309 billion. The catastrophe in Japan also impacted global economy. To estimate its impact, we used regional and global stock indexes, production indexes, stock prices of the main Japanese, European and US companies, import and export dynamics, as well as the data provided by the custom of Japan. We also demonstrated that the catastrophe substantially affected the markets and on the short run in some indicators it even exceeded the effect of the global financial crisis of 2008. The last strong earthquake occurred in Nepal (25.04.2015, M7.8) and Chile (16.09.2015, M8.3), both actualized the research of cost assessments of the overall economic impact of seismic hazard. We concluded that it is necessary to treat strong earthquakes as one very important factor that affects the world economy depending on their location. The research was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project 16-06-00056A).

  8. Definition of a short-cut methodology for assessing earthquake-related Na-Tech risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busini, Valentina; Marzo, Enrico; Callioni, Andrea; Rota, Renato

    2011-08-15

    Na-Tech (Natural and Technological) refers to industrial accidents triggered by natural events such as storms, earthquakes, flooding, and lightning. Herein, a qualitative methodology for the initial assessment of earthquake Na-Tech risk has been developed as a screening tool to identify which situations require a much more expensive Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). The proposed methodology, through suitable Key Hazard Indicators (KHIs), identifies the Na-Tech risk level associated with a given situation (i.e., a process plant located in a given territory), using the Analytical Hierarchy Process as a multi-criteria decision tool for the evaluation of such KHIs. The developed methodology was validated by comparing its computational results with QRA results that involved Na-Tech events previously presented in literature. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Health hazards of fire fighters: exposure assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt-Rauf, P W; Fallon, L F; Tarantini, T; Idema, C; Andrews, L

    1988-09-01

    There is growing concern over the detrimental health effects to firefighters produced by exposure to combustion byproducts of burning materials. To assess the types and levels of exposure encountered by firefighters during their routine occupational duties, members of the Buffalo Fire Department were monitored during firefighting activities with personal, portable, ambient environmental sampling devices. The results indicate that firefighters are frequently exposed to significant concentrations of hazardous materials including carbon monoxide, benzene, sulphur dioxide, hydrogen cyanide, aldehydes, hydrogen chloride, dichlorofluoromethane, and particulates. Furthermore, in many cases of the worst exposure to these materials respiratory protective equipment was not used owing to the visual impression of low smoke intensity, and thus these levels represent actual direct exposure of the firefighters. Many of these materials have been implicated in the production of cardiovascular, respiratory, or neoplastic diseases, which may provide an explanation for the alleged increased risk for these illnesses among firefighters.

  10. Hazards assessment for the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calley, M.B.; Jones, J.L. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, which is operated by EG ampersand G Idaho, Inc., for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The hazards assessment was performed to ensure that this facility complies with DOE and company requirements pertaining to emergency planning and preparedness for operational emergencies. DOE Order 5500.3A requires that a facility-specific hazards assessment be performed to provide the technical basis for facility emergency planning efforts. This hazards assessment was conducted in accordance with DOE Headquarters and DOE Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) guidance to comply with DOE Order 5500.3A. The hazards assessment identifies and analyzes hazards that are significant enough to warrant consideration in a facility's operational emergency management program. This hazards assessment describes the WERF, the area surrounding WERF, associated buildings and structures at WERF, and the processes performed at WERF. All radiological and nonradiological hazardous materials stored, used, or produced at WERF were identified and screened. Even though the screening process indicated that the hazardous materials could be screened from further analysis because the inventory of radiological and nonradiological hazardous materials were below the screening thresholds specified by DOE and DOE-ID guidance for DOE Order 5500.3A, the nonradiological hazardous materials were analyzed further because it was felt that the nonradiological hazardous material screening thresholds were too high

  11. Hazards assessment for the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calley, M.B.; Jones, J.L. Jr.

    1994-09-19

    This report documents the hazards assessment for the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, which is operated by EG&G Idaho, Inc., for the US Department of Energy (DOE). The hazards assessment was performed to ensure that this facility complies with DOE and company requirements pertaining to emergency planning and preparedness for operational emergencies. DOE Order 5500.3A requires that a facility-specific hazards assessment be performed to provide the technical basis for facility emergency planning efforts. This hazards assessment was conducted in accordance with DOE Headquarters and DOE Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) guidance to comply with DOE Order 5500.3A. The hazards assessment identifies and analyzes hazards that are significant enough to warrant consideration in a facility`s operational emergency management program. This hazards assessment describes the WERF, the area surrounding WERF, associated buildings and structures at WERF, and the processes performed at WERF. All radiological and nonradiological hazardous materials stored, used, or produced at WERF were identified and screened. Even though the screening process indicated that the hazardous materials could be screened from further analysis because the inventory of radiological and nonradiological hazardous materials were below the screening thresholds specified by DOE and DOE-ID guidance for DOE Order 5500.3A, the nonradiological hazardous materials were analyzed further because it was felt that the nonradiological hazardous material screening thresholds were too high.

  12. Seismic Hazard Analysis based on Earthquake Vulnerability and Peak Ground Acceleration using Microseismic Method at Universitas Negeri Semarang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistiawan, H.; Supriyadi; Yulianti, I.

    2017-02-01

    Microseismic is a harmonic vibration of land that occurs continuously at a low frequency. The characteristics of microseismic represents the characteristics of the soil layer based on the value of its natural frequency. This paper presents the analysis of seismic hazard at Universitas Negeri Semarang using microseismic method. The data acquisition was done at 20 points with distance between points 300 m by using three component’s seismometer. The data was processed using Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) method to obtain the natural frequency and amplification value. The value of the natural frequency and amplification used to determine the value of the earthquake vulnerability and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The result shows then the earthquake vulnerability value range from 0.2 to 7.5, while the value of the average peak ground acceleration (PGA) is in the range 10-24 gal. Therefore, the average peak ground acceleration equal to earthquake intensity IV MMI scale.

  13. Performance of USGS one-year earthquake hazard map for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Salditch, L.; Petersen, M. D.; McNamara, D. E.

    2017-12-01

    Seismicity in the central United States has dramatically increased since 2008 due to the injection of wastewater produced by oil and gas extraction. In response, the USGS created a one-year probabilistic hazard model and map for 2016 to describe the increased hazard posed to the central and eastern United States. Using the intensity of shaking reported to the "Did You Feel It?" system during 2016, we assess the performance of this model. Assessing the performance of earthquake hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity is conceptually similar but has practical differences. Maps that have return periods of hundreds or thousands of years— as commonly used for natural seismicity— can be assessed using historical intensity data that also span hundreds or thousands of years. Several different features stand out when assessing the USGS 2016 seismic hazard model for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. First, the model can be assessed as a forecast in one year, because event rates are sufficiently high to permit evaluation with one year of data. Second, because these models are projections from the previous year thus implicitly assuming that fluid injection rates remain the same, misfit may reflect changes in human activity. Our results suggest that the model was very successful by the metric implicit in probabilistic hazard seismic assessment: namely, that the fraction of sites at which the maximum shaking exceeded the mapped value is comparable to that expected. The model also did well by a misfit metric that compares the spatial patterns of predicted and maximum observed shaking. This was true for both the central and eastern United States as a whole, and for the region within it with the highest amount of seismicity, Oklahoma and its surrounding area. The model performed least well in northern Texas, over-stating hazard, presumably because lower oil and gas prices and regulatory action reduced the water injection volume

  14. Assessment of liquefaction potential during earthquakes by arias intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayen, R.E.; Mitchell, J.K.

    1997-01-01

    An Arias intensity approach to assess the liquefaction potential of soil deposits during earthquakes is proposed, using an energy-based measure of the severity of earthquake-shaking recorded on seismograms of the two horizontal components of ground motion. Values representing the severity of strong motion at depth in the soil column are associated with the liquefaction resistance of that layer, as measured by in situ penetration testing (SPT, CPT). This association results in a magnitude-independent boundary that envelopes initial liquefaction of soil in Arias intensity-normalized penetration resistance space. The Arias intensity approach is simple to apply and has proven to be highly reliable in assessing liquefaction potential. The advantages of using Arias intensity as a measure of earthquake-shaking severity in liquefaction assessment are: Arias intensity is derived from integration of the entire seismogram wave form, incorporating both the amplitude and duration elements of ground motion; all frequencies of recorded motion are considered; and Arias intensity is an appropriate measure to use when evaluating field penetration test methodologies that are inherently energy-based. Predictor equations describing the attenuation of Arias intensity as a function of earthquake magnitude and source distance are presented for rock, deep-stiff alluvium, and soft soil sites.

  15. Seismic Hazard and risk assessment for Romania -Bulgaria cross-border region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Alexandrova, Irena; Vaseva, Elena; Trifonova, Petya; Raykova, Plamena

    2016-04-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are steadily increasing as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The assessment of the seismic hazard and risk is particularly important, because it provides valuable information for seismic safety and disaster mitigation, and it supports decision making for the benefit of society. Romania and Bulgaria, situated in the Balkan Region as a part of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, are characterized by high seismicity, and are exposed to a high seismic risk. Over the centuries, both countries have experienced strong earthquakes. The cross-border region encompassing the northern Bulgaria and southern Romania is a territory prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The area is significantly affected by earthquakes occurred in both countries, on the one hand the events generated by the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source in Romania, and on the other hand by the crustal seismicity originated in the seismic sources: Shabla (SHB), Dulovo, Gorna Orjahovitza (GO) in Bulgaria. The Vrancea seismogenic zone of Romania is a very peculiar seismic source, often described as unique in the world, and it represents a major concern for most of the northern part of Bulgaria as well. In the present study the seismic hazard for Romania-Bulgaria cross-border region on the basis of integrated basic geo-datasets is assessed. The hazard results are obtained by applying two alternative approaches - probabilistic and deterministic. The MSK64 intensity (MSK64 scale is practically equal to the new EMS98) is used as output parameter for the hazard maps. We prefer to use here the macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, because it is directly related to the degree of damages and, moreover, the epicentral intensity is the original

  16. From Seismic Scenarios to Earthquake Risk Assessment: A Case Study for Iquique, Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, P.; Fortuno, C.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.; Vasquez, J.

    2015-12-01

    Iquique is a strategic city and economic center in northern Chile, and is located in a large seismic gap where a megathrust earthquake and tsunami is expected. Although it was hit by a Mw 8.2 earthquake on April 1st 2014, which caused moderate damage, geophysical evidence still suggests that there is potential for a larger event, so a thorough risk assessment is key to understand the physical, social, and economic effects of such potential event, and devise appropriate mitigation plans. Hence, Iquique has been selected as a prime study case for the implementation of a risk assessment platform in Chile. Our study integrates research on three main elements of risk calculations: hazard evaluation, exposure model, and physical vulnerabilities. To characterize the hazard field, a set of synthetic seismic scenarios have been developed based on plate interlocking and the residual slip potential that results from subtracting the slip occurred during the April 1st 2014 rupture fault mechanism, obtained using InSAR+GPS inversion. Additional scenarios were developed based of the fault rupture model of the Maule 2010 Mw 8.8 earthquake and on the local plate locking models in northern Chile. These rupture models define a collection of possible realizations of earthquake geometries parameterized in terms of critical variables like slip magnitude, rise time, mean propagation velocity, directivity, and other, which are propagated to obtain a hazard map for Iquique (e.g. PGA, PGV, PDG). Furthermore, a large body of public and local data was used to construct a detailed exposure model for Iquique, including aggregated building count, demographics, essential facilities, and lifelines. This model together with the PGA maps for the April 1st 2014 earthquake are used to calibrate HAZUS outputs against observed damage, and adjust the fragility curves of physical systems according to more detailed analyses of typical Chilean building types and their structural properties, plus historical

  17. Re-evaluating seismic hazard along the southern Longmen Shan, China: Insights from the 1970 Dayi and 2013 Lushan earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhigang; Liu-Zeng, Jing; Almeida, Rafael; Hubbard, Judith; Sun, Chuang; Yi, Guixi

    2017-10-01

    Competing hypotheses have been proposed to explain the seismic hazard (i.e. whether earthquakes with M ≥ 7 occur) of the southern Longmen Shan (LMS). This region did not rupture during the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, but later generated the 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquake. Currently, the maximum possible earthquake magnitude, its average recurrence interval, and the seismogenic structure of the southern LMS, remain poorly documented. This study aims to re-evaluate seismogenic structures and seismic hazard along the southern LMS. We first describe the sub-surface structural geometry, as well as the total slip and Quaternary activity of the Range Front blind thrust (RFBT), using high-resolution seismic reflection profiles, borehole data, and intensity-derived macroscopic epicenters. This thrust, which generated the 1970 Ms 6.2 Dayi and 2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan earthquakes, extends for > 250 km along the LMS range front. Integrating new evidence of active faulting and folding and previous quantitative horizontal shortening rate results, we estimate that the Quaternary slip rate of the RFBT is nearly 1 mm/yr, with a minimum total slip of 5 km since 8-5 Ma. Furthermore, we calculate the accumulation rate of seismic moment, 8.04 (± 2.09) × 1017 N·m/yr, for the main active thrusts on the southern LMS, to compare with the moment release rate for earthquakes in the region. When we combine this with the Gutenberg-Richter distribution obtained from historical and instrumental catalogs, we estimate that the potential maximum moment magnitude of an earthquake in the southern LMS is 7.7. Finally, we conclude that the entire southern LMS is capable of generating much larger earthquakes (Mw 7.3-7.7) than seen recently, with an average frequency of once every 1000-1400 years. Therefore, our findings confirm that there is potential for large earthquakes in the southern LMS, especially on the RFBT, which extends beneath the densely populated Chengdu Plain.

  18. Comparative risk assessments for Guadeloupe: earthquakes and storm surge

    OpenAIRE

    Réveillère , Arnaud; Monfort , Daniel; Lecacheux , Sophie; Grisanti , Ludovic; Muller , Héloise; Bertil , Didier; Rohmer , Jérémy; Sedan , Olivier; Douglas , John; Baills , Audrey; Modaressi , Hormoz

    2012-01-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exi...

  19. Setting the Stage for Harmonized Risk Assessment by Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woessner, Jochen; Giardini, Domenico; SHARE Consortium

    2010-05-01

    Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is arguably one of the most useful products that seismology can offer to society. PSHA characterizes the best available knowledge on the seismic hazard of a study area, ideally taking into account all sources of uncertainty. Results form the baseline for informed decision making, such as building codes or insurance rates and provide essential input to each risk assessment application. Several large scale national and international projects have recently been launched aimed at improving and harmonizing PSHA standards around the globe. SHARE (www.share-eu.org) is the European Commission funded project in the Framework Programme 7 (FP-7) that will create an updated, living seismic hazard model for the Euro-Mediterranean region. SHARE is a regional component of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM, www.globalquakemodel.org), a public/private partnership initiated and approved by the Global Science Forum of the OECD-GSF. GEM aims to be the uniform, independent and open access standard to calculate and communicate earthquake hazard and risk worldwide. SHARE itself will deliver measurable progress in all steps leading to a harmonized assessment of seismic hazard - in the definition of engineering requirements, in the collection of input data, in procedures for hazard assessment, and in engineering applications. SHARE scientists will create a unified framework and computational infrastructure for seismic hazard assessment and produce an integrated European probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) model and specific scenario based modeling tools. The results will deliver long-lasting structural impact in areas of societal and economic relevance, they will serve as reference for the Eurocode 8 (EC8) application, and will provide homogeneous input for the correct seismic safety assessment for critical industry, such as the energy infrastructures and the re-insurance sector. SHARE will cover the whole European territory, the

  20. Using a geographic information system (GIS) to assess pediatric surge potential after an earthquake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, Jacqueline W; Curtis, Andrew; Upperman, Jeffrey S

    2012-06-01

    Geographic information systems (GIS) and geospatial technology (GT) can help hospitals improve plans for postdisaster surge by assessing numbers of potential patients in a catchment area and providing estimates of special needs populations, such as pediatrics. In this study, census-derived variables are computed for blockgroups within a 3-mile radius from Children's Hospital Los Angeles (CHLA) and from Los Angeles County-University of Southern California (LAC-USC) Medical Center. Landslide and liquefaction zones are overlaid on US Census Bureau blockgroups. Units that intersect with the hazard zones are selected for computation of pediatric surge potential in case of an earthquake. In addition, cartographic visualization and cluster analysis are performed on the entire 3-mile study area to identify hot spots of socially vulnerable populations. The results suggest the need for locally specified vulnerability models for pediatric populations. GIS and GT have untapped potential to contribute local specificity to planning for surge potential after a disaster. Although this case focuses on an earthquake hazard, the methodology is appropriate for an all-hazards approach. With the advent of Google Earth, GIS output can now be easily shared with medical personnel for broader application and improvement in planning.

  1. Seismic hazard assessment in the Ibero-Maghreb region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jimenez, M.J.; Garcia fernandez, M. [Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientifcas, Barcelona (Spain). Inst. of Earth Sciences; GSAHP Ibero-Maghreb Working Group

    1999-12-01

    The paper illustrates the contribution of the Ibero-Maghreb region to the global GSHAP (Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) map: for the first time, a map of regional hazard source zones is presented and agreement on a common procedure for hazard computation in the region has been achieved.

  2. Assessment of occupational hazards, health problems and safety ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of occupational hazards, health problems and safety practices of petrol station attendants in Uyo, Nigeria. O.E. Johnson, Q.M. Umoren. Abstract. Background: Petrol station attendants encounter several hazards and health problems while working. This study was conducted to determine the occupational hazards ...

  3. Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Centers Evacuation Center Play Areas Animals in Public Evacuation Centers Pet Shelters Interim Guidelines for Animal Health and Control of Disease Transmission in Pet Shelters Protect Your Pets Earthquakes Language: English (US) Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook ...

  4. Coseismic Strain Steps of the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake Indicate EW Extension of Tibetan Plateau and Increased Hazard South to Epicenter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, G.; Shen, X.; Tang, J.; Fukuda, Y.

    2008-12-01

    The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Ms8.0) occurred at the east edge of Tibetan Plateau. It is the biggest seismic disaster in China since the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. To determine the effects of the earthquake on the deformation field of Tibetan Plateau, we collect and analyze continuing strain data of three stations before and after the earthquake in Tibetan Plateau observed by capacitance-type bore-hole strainmeters (Chi, 1985). We collect strain data in NS, EW, NE-SW and NW-NS directions at each borehole. Then we deduce the co-seismic strain steps at time point 14:28 of May 12, 2008 (at this time point the earthquake occurred) with the data before and after the earthquake using the least squares method. Our observation shows that in Tibetan Plateau significant co-seismic strain steps are accompanied with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Extension in EW direction is observed at interior and north Tibetan Plateau which indicates a rapid EW extension of the whole Plateau. Field investigation shows that the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is a manifestation of eastward growth of the Tibetan Plateau (Dong et al., 2008). Eastwards growth of the Tibetan Plateau results naturally in the extension of the Plateau in EW direction. Our co-seismic strain observation agrees well with the conclusion from surface rupture investigation. The magnitude of co-seismic strain step equals to five times of average year extensional strain rate throughout the plateau interior. Shortening in SE- NW direction is observed at the east edge of the Plateau. As hints that the eastward extension of Tibetan Plateau is resisted by Sichuan rigid basin which increases the potential earthquake hazard around the observation station, manifests the declaration from co-seismic stress changes calculation (Persons et al., 2008). Our observed co-seismic strain steps are in total lager than theoretical calculations of dislocation theories which indicate that magnitude of the great earthquake should be bigger than 7.9. Due

  5. Seismic hazard assessment of the cultural heritage sites: A case study in Cappadocia (Turkey)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyrek, Evren; Orhan, Ahmet; Dinçer, İsmail

    2014-05-01

    Turkey is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. Major earthquakes with the potential of threatening life and property occur frequently here. In the last decade, over 50,000 residents lost their lives, commonly as a result of building failures in seismic events. The Cappadocia region is one of the most important touristic sites in Turkey. At the same time, the region has been included to the Word Heritage List by UNESCO at 1985 due to its natural, historical and cultural values. The region is undesirably affected by several environmental conditions, which are subjected in many previous studies. But, there are limited studies about the seismic evaluation of the region. Some of the important historical and cultural heritage sites are: Goreme Open Air Museum, Uchisar Castle, Ortahisar Castle, Derinkuyu Underground City and Ihlara Valley. According to seismic hazard zonation map published by the Ministry of Reconstruction and Settlement these heritage sites fall in Zone III, Zone IV and Zone V. This map show peak ground acceleration or 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for bedrock. In this connection, seismic hazard assessment of these heritage sites has to be evaluated. In this study, seismic hazard calculations are performed both deterministic and probabilistic approaches with local site conditions. A catalog of historical and instrumental earthquakes is prepared and used in this study. The seismic sources have been identified for seismic hazard assessment based on geological, seismological and geophysical information. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at bed rock level is calculated for different seismic sources using available attenuation relationship formula applicable to Turkey. The result of the present study reveals that the seismic hazard at these sites is closely matching with the Seismic Zonation map published by the Ministry of Reconstruction and Settlement. Keywords: Seismic Hazard Assessment, Probabilistic Approach

  6. Seismotectonics and rupture process of the MW 7.1 2011 Van reverse-faulting earthquake, eastern Turkey, and implications for hazard in regions of distributed shortening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackenzie, D.; Elliott, J. R.; Altunel, E.; Walker, R. T.; Kurban, Y. C.; Schwenninger, J.-L.; Parsons, B.

    2016-07-01

    The 2011 October 23 MW 7.1 Van earthquake in eastern Turkey caused ˜600 deaths and caused widespread damage and economic loss. The seismogenic rupture was restricted to 10-25 km in depth, but aseismic surface creep, coincident with outcrop fault exposures, was observed in the hours to months after the earthquake. We combine observations from radar interferometry, seismology, geomorphology and Quaternary dating to investigate the geological slip rate and seismotectonic context of the Van earthquake, and assess the implications for continuing seismic hazard in the region. Transient post-seismic slip on the upper Van fault started immediately following the earthquake, and decayed over a period of weeks; it may not fully account for our long-term surface slip-rate estimate of ≥0.5 mm yr-1. Post-seismic slip on the Bostaniçi splay fault initiated several days to weeks after the main shock, and we infer that it may have followed the MW 5.9 aftershock on the 9th November. The Van earthquake shows that updip segmentation can be important in arresting seismic ruptures on dip-slip faults. Two large, shallow aftershocks show that the upper 10 km of crust can sustain significant earthquakes, and significant slip is observed to have reached the surface in the late Quaternary, so there may be a continuing seismic hazard from the upper Van fault and the associated splay. The wavelength of folding in the hanging wall of the Van fault is dominated by the structure in the upper 10 km of the crust, masking the effect of deeper seismogenic structures. Thus, models of subsurface faulting based solely on surface folding and faulting in regions of reverse faulting may underestimate the full depth extent of seismogenic structures in the region. In measuring the cumulative post-seismic offsets to anthropogenic structures, we show that Structure-from-Motion can be rapidly deployed to create snapshots of post-seismic displacement. We also demonstrate the utility of declassified Corona

  7. Crowdsourcing earthquake damage assessment using remote sensing imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart Gill

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the evolution of recent work on using crowdsourced analysis of remote sensing imagery, particularly high-resolution aerial imagery, to provide rapid, reliable assessments of damage caused by earthquakes and potentially other disasters. The initial effort examined online imagery taken after the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. A more recent response to the 2010 Haiti earthquake led to the formation of an international consortium: the Global Earth Observation Catastrophe Assessment Network (GEO-CAN. The success of GEO-CAN in contributing to the official damage assessments made by the Government of Haiti, the United Nations, and the World Bank led to further development of a web-based interface. A current initiative in Christchurch, New Zealand, is underway where remote sensing experts are analyzing satellite imagery, geotechnical engineers are marking liquefaction areas, and structural engineers are identifying building damage. The current site includes online training to improve the accuracy of the assessments and make it possible for even novice users to contribute to the crowdsourced solution. The paper discusses lessons learned from these initiatives and presents a way forward for using crowdsourced remote sensing as a tool for rapid assessment of damage caused by natural disasters around the world.

  8. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of NW and central ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Himalayan region has undergone significant development and to ensure safe and secure progress in such a seismically vulnerable region there is a need for hazard assessment. For seismic hazard assessment, it is important to assess the quality, consistency, and homogeneity of the seismicity data collected from.

  9. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of NW and central ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Himalayan region has undergone significant development and to ensure safe and secure progress in such a seismically vulnerable region there is a need for hazard assessment. For seismic hazard assessment, it is important to assess the quality, consistency, and homogeneity of the seismicity data collected from ...

  10. Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.

    2016-04-01

    Objective testing is the key issue towards any reliable seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Different earthquake hazard maps must demonstrate their capability in anticipating ground shaking from future strong earthquakes before an appropriate use for different purposes - such as engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. Quantitative assessment of maps performances is an essential step also in scientific process of their revision and possible improvement. Cross-checking of probabilistic models with available observations and independent physics based models is recognized as major validation procedure. The existing maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as those from the neo-deterministic analysis (NDSHA), which have been already developed for several regions worldwide (including Italy, India and North Africa), are considered to exemplify the possibilities of the cross-comparative analysis in spotting out limits and advantages of different methods. Where the data permit, a comparative analysis versus the documented seismic activity observed in reality is carried out, showing how available observations about past earthquakes can contribute to assess performances of the different methods. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for consideration of a wide range of possible earthquake sources as the starting point for scenarios constructed via full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of empirical attenuation models (i.e. Ground Motion Prediction Equations, GMPE) and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking (i.e. complete synthetic seismograms), readily applicable to complete engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The standard NDSHA maps provide reliable envelope estimates of maximum seismic ground motion from a wide set of possible scenario earthquakes, including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake. In addition

  11. The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms and sea level rise: a probabilistic multi-hazard approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dall'Osso, F; Dominey-Howes, D; Moore, C; Summerhayes, S; Withycombe, G

    2014-12-10

    Approximately 85% of Australia's population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 1:100, 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 1:100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney.

  12. Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessments for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, F.; Wang, Z.; Liu, J.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 ?? 0.1??. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity-frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I ??? 7, 8, or 9 in 50 years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50 years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i. e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate. ?? 2010 Birkh??user / Springer Basel AG.

  13. Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessments for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Furen; Wang, Zhenming; Liu, Jingwei

    2011-03-01

    Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 × 0.1°. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity-frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I ≥ 7, 8, or 9 in 50 years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50 years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i.e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate.

  14. Assessing earthquake early warning using sparse networks in developing countries: Case study of the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Pilz, Marco; Fleming, Kevin; Haas, Michael; Pittore, Massimiliano; Petrovic, Bojana; Moldobekov, Bolot; Zubovich, Alexander; Lauterjung, Joern

    2017-09-01

    The first real-time digital strong-motion network in Central Asia has been installed in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2014. Although this network consists of only 19 strong-motion stations, they are located in near-optimal locations for earthquake early warning and rapid response purposes. In fact, it is expected that this network, which utilizes the GFZ-Sentry software, allowing decentralized event assessment calculations, not only will provide useful strong motion data useful for improving future seismic hazard and risk assessment, but will serve as the backbone for regional and on-site earthquake early warning operations. Based on the location of these stations, and travel-time estimates for P- and S-waves, we have determined potential lead times for several major urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (i.e., Bishkek, Osh, and Karakol) and Kazakhstan (Almaty), where we find the implementation of an efficient earthquake early warning system would provide lead times outside the blind zone ranging from several seconds up to several tens of seconds. This was confirmed by the simulation of the possible shaking (and intensity) that would arise considering a series of scenarios based on historical and expected events, and how they affect the major urban centres. Such lead times would allow the instigation of automatic mitigation procedures, while the system as a whole would support prompt and efficient actions to be undertaken over large areas.

  15. Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment at Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant Site, Tennessee, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandmayr, E.; Cameron, C.; Vaccari, F.; Fasan, M.; Romanelli, F.; Magrin, A.; Vlahovic, G.

    2017-12-01

    Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant (WBNPP) is located within the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ), the second most naturally active seismic zone in the US east of the Rocky Mountains. The largest instrumental earthquakes in the ETSZ are M 4.6, although paleoseismic evidence supports events of M≥6.5. Events are mainly strike-slip and occur on steeply dipping planes at an average depth of 13 km. In this work, we apply the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment to estimate the potential seismic input at the plant site, which has been recently targeted by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for a seismic hazard reevaluation. First, we perform a parametric test on some seismic source characteristics (i.e. distance, depth, strike, dip and rake) using a one-dimensional regional bedrock model to define the most conservative scenario earthquakes. Then, for the selected scenario earthquakes, the estimate of the ground motion input at WBNPP is refined using a two-dimensional local structural model (based on the plant's operator documentation) with topography, thus looking for site amplification and different possible rupture processes at the source. WBNNP features a safe shutdown earthquake (SSE) design with PGA of 0.18 g and maximum spectral amplification (SA, 5% damped) of 0.46 g (at periods between 0.15 and 0.5 s). Our results suggest that, although for most of the considered scenarios the PGA is relatively low, SSE values can be reached and exceeded in the case of the most conservative scenario earthquakes.

  16. Seismic hazard and risk assessment for large Romanian dams situated in the Moldavian Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Petruta Constantin, Angela; Toma Danila, Dragos; Borleanu, Felix; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Moldoveanu, Traian

    2016-04-01

    Besides periodical technical inspections, the monitoring and the surveillance of dams' related structures and infrastructures, there are some more seismic specific requirements towards dams' safety. The most important one is the seismic risk assessment that can be accomplished by rating the dams into seismic risk classes using the theory of Bureau and Ballentine (2002), and Bureau (2003), taking into account the maximum expected peak ground motions at the dams site - values obtained using probabilistic hazard assessment approaches (Moldovan et al., 2008), the structures vulnerability and the downstream risk characteristics (human, economical, historic and cultural heritage, etc) in the areas that might be flooded in the case of a dam failure. Probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH), vulnerability and risk studies for dams situated in the Moldavian Platform, starting from Izvorul Muntelui Dam, down on Bistrita and following on Siret River and theirs affluent will be realized. The most vulnerable dams will be studied in detail and flooding maps will be drawn to find the most exposed downstream localities both for risk assessment studies and warnings. GIS maps that clearly indicate areas that are potentially flooded are enough for these studies, thus giving information on the number of inhabitants and goods that may be destroyed. Geospatial servers included topography is sufficient to achieve them, all other further studies are not necessary for downstream risk assessment. The results will consist of local and regional seismic information, dams specific characteristics and locations, seismic hazard maps and risk classes, for all dams sites (for more than 30 dams), inundation maps (for the most vulnerable dams from the region) and possible affected localities. The studies realized in this paper have as final goal to provide the local emergency services with warnings of a potential dam failure and ensuing flood as a result of an large earthquake occurrence, allowing further

  17. A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for greater Tokyo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R.S.; Toda, S.; Parsons, T.; Grunewald, E.; Blong, R.; Sparks, S.; Shah, H.; Kennedy, J.

    2006-01-01

    Tokyo and its outlying cities are home to one-quarter of Japan's 127 million people. Highly destructive earthquakes struck the capital in 1703, 1855 and 1923, the last of which took 105 000 lives. Fuelled by greater Tokyo's rich seismological record, but challenged by its magnificent complexity, our joint Japanese-US group carried out a new study of the capital's earthquake hazards. We used the prehistoric record of great earthquakes preserved by uplifted marine terraces and tsunami deposits (17 M???8 shocks in the past 7000 years), a newly digitized dataset of historical shaking (10 000 observations in the past 400 years), the dense modern seismic network (300 000 earthquakes in the past 30 years), and Japan's GeoNet array (150 GPS vectors in the past 10 years) to reinterpret the tectonic structure, identify active faults and their slip rates and estimate their earthquake frequency. We propose that a dislodged fragment of the Pacific plate is jammed between the Pacific, Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates beneath the Kanto plain on which Tokyo sits. We suggest that the Kanto fragment controls much of Tokyo's seismic behaviour for large earthquakes, including the damaging 1855 M???7.3 Ansei-Edo shock. On the basis of the frequency of earthquakes beneath greater Tokyo, events with magnitude and location similar to the M??? 7.3 Ansei-Edo event have a ca 20% likelihood in an average 30 year period. In contrast, our renewal (time-dependent) probability for the great M??? 7.9 plate boundary shocks such as struck in 1923 and 1703 is 0.5% for the next 30 years, with a time-averaged 30 year probability of ca 10%. The resulting net likelihood for severe shaking (ca 0.9g peak ground acceleration (PGA)) in Tokyo, Kawasaki and Yokohama for the next 30 years is ca 30%. The long historical record in Kanto also affords a rare opportunity to calculate the probability of shaking in an alternative manner exclusively from intensity observations. This approach permits robust estimates

  18. Development of fire risk assessment method caused by earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitomo, Nobuo; Matsukura, Hiroshi; Matsuoka, Takeshi; Suzuki, Kazutaka

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to establish the assessment method of the risk of the multiple fires caused by earthquake, in the framework of PSA. In order to establish this method, we have settled four tasks and started a five years research project in 1999 for five years. These results will be useful for not only nuclear power plants but also chemical plants, traffic systems etc. (author)

  19. A methodology for physically based rockfall hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Crosta

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Rockfall hazard assessment is not simple to achieve in practice and sound, physically based assessment methodologies are still missing. The mobility of rockfalls implies a more difficult hazard definition with respect to other slope instabilities with minimal runout. Rockfall hazard assessment involves complex definitions for "occurrence probability" and "intensity". This paper is an attempt to evaluate rockfall hazard using the results of 3-D numerical modelling on a topography described by a DEM. Maps portraying the maximum frequency of passages, velocity and height of blocks at each model cell, are easily combined in a GIS in order to produce physically based rockfall hazard maps. Different methods are suggested and discussed for rockfall hazard mapping at a regional and local scale both along linear features or within exposed areas. An objective approach based on three-dimensional matrixes providing both a positional "Rockfall Hazard Index" and a "Rockfall Hazard Vector" is presented. The opportunity of combining different parameters in the 3-D matrixes has been evaluated to better express the relative increase in hazard. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the hazard index with respect to the included variables and their combinations is preliminarily discussed in order to constrain as objective as possible assessment criteria.

  20. Assessment of LANL hazardous waste management documentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, K.D.; Hoevemeyer, S.S.; Stirrup, T.S.; Jennrich, E.A.; Lund, D.M.

    1991-04-01

    The objective of this report is to present findings from evaluating the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) ''Hazardous Waste Acceptance Criteria Receipt at TA-54, Area L'' to determine if it meets applicable DOE requirements. The guidelines and requirements for the establishment of a Hazardous Waste Acceptance Criteria (HW-WAC) are found in 40 CFR 260 to 270 and DOE Order 5820.2A. Neither set of requirements specifically require a WAC for the management of hazardous waste; however, the use of such documentation is logical and is consistent with the approach required for the management of radioactive waste. The primary purpose of a HW-WAC is to provide generators and waste management with established criteria that must be met before hazardous waste can be acceptable for treatment, storage and/or disposal. An annotated outline for a generic waste acceptance criteria was developed based on the requirements of 40 CFR 260 to 270 and DOE Order 5820.2A. The outline contains only requirements for hazardous waste, it does not address the radiological components of low-level mixed waste. The outline generated from the regulations was used for comparison to the LANL WAC For Chemical and Low-level Mixed Waste Receipt at TA-54, Area L. The major elements that should be addressed by a hazardous waste WAC were determined to be as follows: Waste Package/Container Requirements, Waste Forms, Land Disposal Restrictions, and Data Package-Certification ampersand Documentation

  1. Earthquake Scenarios Based Upon the Data and Methodologies of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rukstales, K. S.; Petersen, M. D.; Frankel, A. D.; Harmsen, S. C.; Wald, D. J.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Haller, K. M.

    2011-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) utilizes a database of over 500 faults across the conterminous United States to constrain earthquake source models for probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Additionally, the fault database is now being used to produce a suite of deterministic ground motions for earthquake scenarios that are based on the same fault source parameters and empirical ground motion prediction equations used for the probabilistic hazard maps. Unlike the calculated hazard map ground motions, local soil amplification is applied to the scenario calculations based on the best available Vs30 (average shear-wave velocity down to 30 meters) mapping, or in some cases using topographic slope as a proxy. Systematic outputs include all standard USGS ShakeMap products, including GIS, KML, XML, and HAZUS input files. These data are available from the ShakeMap web pages with a searchable archive. The scenarios are being produced within the framework of a geographic information system (GIS) so that alternative scenarios can readily be produced by altering fault source parameters, Vs30 soil amplification, as well as the weighting of ground motion prediction equations used in the calculations. The alternative scenarios can then be used for sensitivity analysis studies to better characterize uncertainty in the source model and convey this information to decision makers. By providing a comprehensive collection of earthquake scenarios based upon the established data and methods of the USGS NSHMP, we hope to provide a well-documented source of data which can be used for visualization, planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and research purposes.

  2. The long-term geologic hazards in areas struck by large-magnitude earthquakes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wasowski, Janusz; Jibson, Randell W.; Huang, Runqiu; van Asch, Theo

    2014-01-01

    Large-magnitude earthquakes occur every year, but most hit remote and uninhabited regions and thus go unnoticed. Although populated areas are affected infrequently by large earthquakes, each time the outcomes are devastating in terms of life and property loss. The human and economic costs of natural

  3. Vulnerability assessment in avalanche hazardous areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigo, B.; De Biagi, V.; Chiaia, B.

    2012-04-01

    Until a few decades ago, damages and human losses related to the avalanche risk represented only a small part of the destructive effects produced each year by natural events. Nowadays, on the contrary, the situation has considerably changed due to growing of the built-up areas and human presence in the mountain environment: this fact increases the current avalanche risk and puts snow avalanches and hydro-geological risks (floods, landslides, rock falls, etc…) at the same importance level. To mitigate the effects, Authorities provide both specific policies for urban development and mountain land use and simple but reliable methodologies to define the avalanche risk. As is well known, risk can be defined as the product of three factors: the environmental danger P (probability that a given phenomenon with its catastrophic intensity occurs in a specific area and time), the vulnerability V (degree of loss of one or more elements by a natural phenomenon of a known magnitude) and the exposure E (measure of the exposed value for each vulnerable element). A novel approach for the evaluation of the "Vulnerability factor" of a new or existing building under avalanche hazard by considering its structural (materials, strength and robustness, etc…) and architectural (shape, exposure, etc…) peculiarities is presented. A real avalanche event occurred in December, 2008 in Aosta Valley, which caused the total collapse of a building is taken as an example for tesing the effectiveness of the proposed risk assessment. By means of photographical analysis on undamaged parts, local surveys and debris arrangement, the impact pressure and the collapse dynamics are back-analyzed. The results are commented and comparisons between the damages and Vulnerability factor are made.

  4. Assessment of tsunami hazard for the American Pacific coast from southern Mexico to northern Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brizuela, B.; Armigliato, A.; Tinti, S.

    2013-06-01

    Central America has been struck by at least 49 tsunamis between 1539 and 1996. As many as 37 of these events occurred at the Pacific Coast, and 31 were generated by earthquakes. Some of the events have been destructive, but despite this, tsunamis are an underrated hazard in Central America: people are not aware that they are at risk and even recent tsunami events have been forgotten. Recent studies, following the destructive tsunami occurred in Nicaragua in 1992, have revealed that Central America is a moderately tsunamigenic zone that is mainly affected by tsunamis triggered by earthquakes, especially at the Pacific coast where the Middle American Trench runs parallel to the coast. In this study, a statistical first and then a deterministic analysis for the Pacific coast of Central America has been carried out. The statistical approach aims to estimate the Gutenberg-Richter coefficients of the main seismic tsunamigenic regions of the area in order to assess the annual rate of occurrence of tsunamigenic earthquakes and their corresponding return period. A deterministic approach is then used to compute the tsunami run-up distribution along the coast corresponding to a given annual rate of occurrence of tsunamigenic earthquakes.

  5. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Eastern and Central groups of the Azores - Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontiela, João; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Rosset, Philippe; Borges, José; Rodrigues, Francisco; Caldeira, Bento

    2017-04-01

    Azores islands of the Eastern and Central groups are located at the triple junction of the American, Eurasian and Nubian plates inducing a large number of low magnitude earthquakes. Since its settlement in the 15th century, 33 earthquakes with intensity ≥ VII have caused severe damage and high death toll. The most severe ones occurred in 1522 at São Miguel Island with a maximum MM intensity of X; in 1614 at Terceira Island (X) in 1757 at São Jorge Island (XI); 1852 at São Miguel Island (VIII); 1926 at Faial Island (Mb 5.3-5.9); in 1980 at Terceira Island (Mw7.1) and in 1998 at Faial Island (Mw6.2). The analysis of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) were carried out using the classical Cornell-McGuire approach using seismogenic zones recently defined by Fontiela et al. (2014). We create a new earthquake catalogue merging local and global datasets with a large time span (1522 - 2016) to calculate recurrence times and maximum magnitudes. In order to reduce the epistemic uncertainties, we test several ground motion prediction equations in agreement with the geological heterogeneities typical of young volcanic islands. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps are proposed for 475 and 975 years returns periods as well as hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra for the main cities. REFERENCES: Fontiela, J. et al., 2014. Azores seismogenic zones. Comunicações Geológicas, 101(1), pp.351-354. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: João Fontiela is supported by grant M3.1.2/F/060/2011 of Regional Science Fund of the Regional Government Azores and this study is co-funded by the European Union through the European fund of Regional Development, framed in COMPETE 2020 (Operational Competitiveness Programme and Internationalization) through the ICT project (UID/GEO/04683/2013) with the reference POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007690.

  6. [High Resolution Remote Sensing Monitoring and Assessment of Secondary Geological Disasters Triggered by the Lushan Earthquake].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fu-tao; Wang, Shi-xin; Zhou, Yi; Wang, Li-tao; Yan, Fu-li; Li, Wen-jun; Liu, Xiong-fei

    2016-01-01

    The secondary geological disasters triggered by the Lushan earthquake on April 20, 2013, such as landslides, collapses, debris flows, etc., had caused great casualties and losses. We monitored the number and spatial distribution of the secondary geological disasters in the earthquake-hit area from airborne remote sensing images, which covered areas about 3 100 km2. The results showed that Lushan County, Baoxing County and Tianquan County were most severely affected; there were 164, 126 and 71 secondary geological disasters in these regions. Moreover, we analyzed the relationship between the distribution of the secondary geological disasters, geological structure and intensity. The results indicate that there were 4 high-hazard zones in the monitored area, one focused within six kilometers from the epicenter, and others are distributed along the two main fault zones of the Longmen Mountain. More than 97% secondary geological disasters occurred in zones with a seismic intensity of VII to IX degrees, a slope between 25 A degrees and 50 A degrees, and an altitude of between 800 and 2 000 m. At last, preliminary suggestions were proposed for the rehabilitation and reconstruction planning of Lushan earthquake. According to the analysis result, airborne and space borne remote sensing can be used accurately and effectively in almost real-time to monitor and assess secondary geological disasters, providing a scientific basis and decision making support for government emergency command and post-disaster reconstruction.

  7. Use of Ground Motion Simulations of a Historical Earthquake for the Assessment of Past and Future Urban Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kentel, E.; Çelik, A.; karimzadeh Naghshineh, S.; Askan, A.

    2017-12-01

    Erzincan city located in the Eastern part of Turkey at the conjunction of three active faults is one of the most hazardous regions in the world. In addition to several historical events, this city has experienced one of the largest earthquakes during the last century: The 27 December 1939 (Ms=8.0) event. With limited knowledge of the tectonic structure by then, the city center was relocated to the North after the 1939 earthquake by almost 5km, indeed closer to the existing major strike slip fault. This decision coupled with poor construction technologies, led to severe damage during a later event that occurred on 13 March 1992 (Mw=6.6). The 1939 earthquake occurred in the pre-instrumental era in the region with no available local seismograms whereas the 1992 event was only recorded by 3 nearby stations. There are empirical isoseismal maps from both events indicating indirectly the spatial distribution of the damage. In this study, we focus on this region and present a multidisciplinary approach to discuss the different components of uncertainties involved in the assessment and mitigation of seismic risk in urban areas. For this initial attempt, ground motion simulation of the 1939 event is performed to obtain the anticipated ground motions and shaking intensities. Using these quantified results along with the spatial distribution of the observed damage, the relocation decision is assessed and suggestions are provided for future large earthquakes to minimize potential earthquake risks.

  8. Assessing Landslide Hazard Using Artificial Neural Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farrokhzad, Farzad; Choobbasti, Asskar Janalizadeh; Barari, Amin

    2011-01-01

    failure" which is main concentration of the current research and "liquefaction failure". Shear failures along shear planes occur when the shear stress along the sliding surfaces exceed the effective shear strength. These slides have been referred to as landslide. An expert system based on artificial...... and factor of safety. It can be stated that the trained neural networks are capable of predicting the stability of slopes and safety factor of landslide hazard in study area with an acceptable level of confidence. Landslide hazard analysis and mapping can provide useful information for catastrophic loss...

  9. Time-dependent earthquake hazard evaluation in seismogenic systems using mixed Markov Chains: An application to the Japan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, C.; Nava, F. A.; Lomnitz, C.

    2006-08-01

    A previous work introduced a new method for seismic hazard evaluation in a system (a geographic area with distinct, but related seismogenic regions) based on modeling the transition probabilities of states (patterns of presence or absence of seismicity, with magnitude greater or equal to a threshold magnitude Mr, in the regions of the system, during a time interval Δt) as a Markov chain. Application of this direct method to the Japan area gave very good results. Given that the most important limitation of the direct method is the relative scarcity of large magnitude events, we decided to explore the possibility that seismicity with magnitude M ≥ Mmr contains information about the future occurrence of earthquakes with M ≥ Mmr > Mmr. This mixed Markov chain method estimates the probabilities of occurrence of a system state for M ≥ MMr on the basis of the observed state for M ≥ Mmr in the previous Δt. Application of the mixed method to the area of Japan gives better hazard estimations than the direct method; in particular for large earthquakes. As part of this study, the problem of performance evaluation of hazard estimation methods is addressed, leading to the use of grading functions.

  10. Construction of opening regional geological hazards risk assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jixiang; Zhang, Lizhong; Zhou, Xiaoyuan; Wang, Qian

    2011-10-01

    It's the basis of the regional geological hazard assessment of regional geological hazard risk research, and the result can provide foundation for planning of land and resources, selection of important project site, controlling, monitoring, and forecasting geological disaster, developing contingency measures for disaster, and environmental protection. With the development of GIS technology, methods and models of regional geological hazard assessment have made great progress, it gradually change from the qualitative and semi-quantitative to quantitative, systematic, spatial management. This paper proposed a user-oriented, method- oriented, category-oriented system of regional geological hazards risk assessment through discusses the key points of geological hazards risk assessment, and the requirements of geological disaster evaluation system development today. The new evaluation system fit varieties types of geological disaster evaluation in different areas, and it owns a very important practical significance.

  11. Tsunami hazard assessment for the Azores archipelago: a historical review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabral, Nuno; Ferreira, Teresa; Queiroz, Maria Gabriela

    2010-05-01

    The Azores islands due to its complex geographical and geodynamic setting are exposed to tsunamigenic events associated to different triggering mechanisms, local or distant. Since the settlement of the Azores, in the fifteenth century, there are several documents that relate coastal areas flooding episodes with unusually high waves which caused death and destruction. This work had as main objective the characterization of the different events that can be associated with tsunamigenic phenomena, registered in the archipelago. With this aim, it was collected diverse documentation like chronics, manuscripts, newspaper articles and magazines, scientific publications, and international databases available online. From all the studied tsunami events it was identified the occurrence of some teletsunamis, among which the most relevant was triggered by the 1st November 1755 Lisbon earthquake, with an epicenter SW of Portugal, which killed 6 people in Terceira island. It is also noted the teletsunami generated by the 1761 earthquake, located in the same region as the latest, and the one generated in 1929 by an earthquake-triggered submarine landslide in the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. From the local events, originated in the Azores, the most significant were the tsunamis triggered by 1757 and 1980 earthquakes, both associated with the Terceira Rift dynamics. In the first case the waves may also be due to earthquake-triggered. With respect to tsunamis triggered by sea cliffs landslides it is important to mention the 1847 Quebrada Nova and the 1980 Rocha Alta events, both located in the Flores Island. The 1847 event is the deadliest tsunami recorded in Azores since 10 people died in Flores and Corvo islands in result of the propagated wave. The developed studies improve knowledge of the tsunami sources that affected the Azores during its history, also revealing the importance of awareness about this natural phenomenon. The obtained results showed that the tsunami hazard in the

  12. Social Media as Seismic Networks for the Earthquake Damage Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meletti, C.; Cresci, S.; La Polla, M. N.; Marchetti, A.; Tesconi, M.

    2014-12-01

    The growing popularity of online platforms, based on user-generated content, is gradually creating a digital world that mirrors the physical world. In the paradigm of crowdsensing, the crowd becomes a distributed network of sensors that allows us to understand real life events at a quasi-real-time rate. The SoS-Social Sensing project [http://socialsensing.it/] exploits the opportunistic crowdsensing, involving users in the sensing process in a minimal way, for social media emergency management purposes in order to obtain a very fast, but still reliable, detection of emergency dimension to face. First of all we designed and implemented a decision support system for the detection and the damage assessment of earthquakes. Our system exploits the messages shared in real-time on Twitter. In the detection phase, data mining and natural language processing techniques are firstly adopted to select meaningful and comprehensive sets of tweets. Then we applied a burst detection algorithm in order to promptly identify outbreaking seismic events. Using georeferenced tweets and reported locality names, a rough epicentral determination is also possible. The results, compared to Italian INGV official reports, show that the system is able to detect, within seconds, events of a magnitude in the region of 3.5 with a precision of 75% and a recall of 81,82%. We then focused our attention on damage assessment phase. We investigated the possibility to exploit social media data to estimate earthquake intensity. We designed a set of predictive linear models and evaluated their ability to map the intensity of worldwide earthquakes. The models build on a dataset of almost 5 million tweets exploited to compute our earthquake features, and more than 7,000 globally distributed earthquakes data, acquired in a semi-automatic way from USGS, serving as ground truth. We extracted 45 distinct features falling into four categories: profile, tweet, time and linguistic. We run diagnostic tests and

  13. Preliminary Assessment for the Effects of the External Hazard Factors on the Safety of NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, So Beom; Hyun, Seung Gyu; Kim, Sang Yun; Lee, Sung Kyu; Hur, Youl

    2010-01-01

    The Ch.etsu Offshore Earthquake(2007.7.16) in Japan caused damage to the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa(K-K) Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) with seismic ground motion that exceeded the design level. This incident drew the interest of the safety evaluation studies for NPPs subjected to earthquakes exceeding the design basis around the world. Also, the Indian Ocean Tsunami(2004.12.26) tripped the Madras NPP by reason of flooding of the intake pump house and inundated the construction site of a fast breeder reactor site in India. In addition, from the various man-made and natural hazards such as the oil spill accident near Mallipo, Taean, Chungnam (2007.12), the forest fire near the Ulchin NPP site, the several inflows of marine organism into the intake of the Ulchin NPP, it was confirmed that the safety of NPPs may be affected by natural and human induced disasters. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been warned about global warming; the average temperature rose about 1.5 .deg. C during the 20th century and the damages caused by typhoons and heavy rains have also increased in Korea. Accordingly, a natural disaster prevention research team(hereafter team) ,which have been organized and operated since 2009, has assessed the impact of various hazards such as earthquakes and environmental changes due to global warming on the safety of NPP and has discussed to establish countermeasures. This paper introduces that the preliminary assessment for the effects of the external hazard factors on the safety of NPPs was conducted by the team

  14. Preliminary Assessment for the Effects of the External Hazard Factors on the Safety of NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, So Beom; Hyun, Seung Gyu; Kim, Sang Yun; Lee, Sung Kyu [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Hur, Youl [bKorea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-10-15

    The Ch.etsu Offshore Earthquake(2007.7.16) in Japan caused damage to the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa(K-K) Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) with seismic ground motion that exceeded the design level. This incident drew the interest of the safety evaluation studies for NPPs subjected to earthquakes exceeding the design basis around the world. Also, the Indian Ocean Tsunami(2004.12.26) tripped the Madras NPP by reason of flooding of the intake pump house and inundated the construction site of a fast breeder reactor site in India. In addition, from the various man-made and natural hazards such as the oil spill accident near Mallipo, Taean, Chungnam (2007.12), the forest fire near the Ulchin NPP site, the several inflows of marine organism into the intake of the Ulchin NPP, it was confirmed that the safety of NPPs may be affected by natural and human induced disasters. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been warned about global warming; the average temperature rose about 1.5 .deg. C during the 20th century and the damages caused by typhoons and heavy rains have also increased in Korea. Accordingly, a natural disaster prevention research team(hereafter team) ,which have been organized and operated since 2009, has assessed the impact of various hazards such as earthquakes and environmental changes due to global warming on the safety of NPP and has discussed to establish countermeasures. This paper introduces that the preliminary assessment for the effects of the external hazard factors on the safety of NPPs was conducted by the team

  15. Tsunami-hazard assessment based on subaquatic slope-failure susceptibility and tsunami-inundation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anselmetti, Flavio; Hilbe, Michael; Strupler, Michael; Baumgartner, Christoph; Bolz, Markus; Braschler, Urs; Eberli, Josef; Liniger, Markus; Scheiwiller, Peter; Strasser, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Due to their smaller dimensions and confined bathymetry, lakes act as model oceans that may be used as analogues for the much larger oceans and their margins. Numerous studies in the perialpine lakes of Central Europe have shown that their shores were repeatedly struck by several-meters-high tsunami waves, which were caused by subaquatic slides usually triggered by earthquake shaking. A profound knowledge of these hazards, their intensities and recurrence rates is needed in order to perform thorough tsunami-hazard assessment for the usually densely populated lake shores. In this context, we present results of a study combining i) basinwide slope-stability analysis of subaquatic sediment-charged slopes with ii) identification of scenarios for subaquatic slides triggered by seismic shaking, iii) forward modeling of resulting tsunami waves and iv) mapping of intensity of onshore inundation in populated areas. Sedimentological, stratigraphical and geotechnical knowledge of the potentially unstable sediment drape on the slopes is required for slope-stability assessment. Together with critical ground accelerations calculated from already failed slopes and paleoseismic recurrence rates, scenarios for subaquatic sediment slides are established. Following a previously used approach, the slides are modeled as a Bingham plastic on a 2D grid. The effect on the water column and wave propagation are simulated using the shallow-water equations (GeoClaw code), which also provide data for tsunami inundation, including flow depth, flow velocity and momentum as key variables. Combining these parameters leads to so called «intensity maps» for flooding that provide a link to the established hazard mapping framework, which so far does not include these phenomena. The current versions of these maps consider a 'worst case' deterministic earthquake scenario, however, similar maps can be calculated using probabilistic earthquake recurrence rates, which are expressed in variable amounts of

  16. Tsunami hazard assessment along Diba-Oman and Diba-Al-Emirates coasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El-Hussain Issa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Tsunami is among the most devastating natural hazards phenomenon responsible for significant loss of life and property throughout history. The Sultanate of Oman and United Arab Emirates are among the Indian Ocean countries that were subjected to one confirmed tsunami in November 27, 1945 due to an Mw 8.1 earthquake in Makran Subduction Zone. In this study, we present preliminary deterministic tsunami hazard assessment for the coasts of Diba Oman and Diba Al-Emirates, which are located on the western coast of the Oman Sea. The tsunami vulnerability of these cities increases due to the construction of many critical infrastructures and urban concentration along their coasts. Therefore, tsunami hazard assessment is necessary to mitigate the risk on the socio-economic system and sustainable developments. The major known source of tsunamis able to impact both coasts of Oman and United Arab Emirates is the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ which extends for approximately 900 km. The deterministic approach uses specific scenarios considering the maximum credible earthquakes occurring in the MSZ and computes the ensuing tsunami impact in the coasts of the study area. The maximum wave height graphs and inundation maps are obtained for tsunami scenarios caused by 8.8 earthquake magnitude in eastern MSZ and 8.2 magnitude from western MSZ. The Mw8.8 eastern MSZ causes a maximum inundation distance of 447 meters and a maximum flow depth of 1.37 meter. Maximum inundation distance larger than 420 meters occurs due to the Mw8.2 western MSZ scenario. For this scenario, numerical simulations show a maximum flow depth of about 2.34 meters.

  17. The Effects of the Passage of Time from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake on the Public’s Anxiety about a Variety of Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuya Nakayachi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This research investigated whether the Japanese people’s anxiety about a variety of hazards, including earthquakes and nuclear accidents, has changed over time since the Tohoku Earthquake in 2011. Data from three nationwide surveys conducted in 2008, 2012, and 2015 were compared to see the change in societal levels of anxiety toward 51 types of hazards. The same two-phase stratified random sampling method was used to create the list of participants in each survey. The results showed that anxiety about earthquakes and nuclear accidents had increased for a time after the Tohoku Earthquake, and then decreased after a four-year time frame with no severe earthquakes and nuclear accidents. It was also revealed that the anxiety level for some hazards other than earthquakes and nuclear accidents had decreased at ten months after the Earthquake, and then remained unchanged after the four years. Therefore, ironically, a major disaster might decrease the public anxiety in general at least for several years.

  18. Risk assessment: Prevalent occupational hazards in Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: In terms of human suffering and related economic costs, the magnitude of global impact of occupational accidents and diseases, as well as major industrial disasters, has been a long-standing source of concern at the international, national, and workplace level. Objective: To define the prevalent hazards in the ...

  19. Complex mixtures: Hazard identification and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fay, R.M.; Feron, V.J.

    1996-01-01

    Regarding risk evaluation of complex mixtures, the Working Group discussed the following topics: evaluation of the mixture as a whole, fractionation of the mixture, identification of the 'top ten' chemicals, and composite standards. It was concluded that no standard methodology for hazard

  20. Assessment of precast beam-column using capacity demand response spectrum subject to design basis earthquake and maximum considered earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghani, Kay Dora Abd.; Tukiar, Mohd Azuan; Hamid, Nor Hayati Abdul

    2017-08-01

    Malaysia is surrounded by the tectonic feature of the Sumatera area which consists of two seismically active inter-plate boundaries, namely the Indo-Australian and the Eurasian Plates on the west and the Philippine Plates on the east. Hence, Malaysia experiences tremors from far distant earthquake occurring in Banda Aceh, Nias Island, Padang and other parts of Sumatera Indonesia. In order to predict the safety of precast buildings in Malaysia under near field ground motion the response spectrum analysis could be used for dealing with future earthquake whose specific nature is unknown. This paper aimed to develop of capacity demand response spectrum subject to Design Basis Earthquake (DBE) and Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) in order to assess the performance of precast beam column joint. From the capacity-demand response spectrum analysis, it can be concluded that the precast beam-column joints would not survive when subjected to earthquake excitation with surface-wave magnitude, Mw, of more than 5.5 Scale Richter (Type 1 spectra). This means that the beam-column joint which was designed using the current code of practice (BS8110) would be severely damaged when subjected to high earthquake excitation. The capacity-demand response spectrum analysis also shows that the precast beam-column joints in the prototype studied would be severely damaged when subjected to Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) with PGA=0.22g having a surface-wave magnitude of more than 5.5 Scale Richter, or Type 1 spectra.

  1. Urban earthquake hazard: perceived seismic risk and preparedness in Dhaka City, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Bimal Kanti; Bhuiyan, Rejuan Hossain

    2010-04-01

    Bangladesh is vulnerable to seismic events. Experts suspect that if an earthquake with a 7.0 magnitude occurred in large cities of Bangladesh, there would be a major human tragedy due to the structural failure of many buildings. The primary objectives of this paper are to examine seismic risk perception among residents of Dhaka City and investigate their levels of earthquake preparedness. A questionnaire survey conducted among 444 residents of the city provided the major source of data for the paper. The survey results suggest that an overwhelming majority of the respondents were not prepared for a major earthquake, which is anticipated to occur in Dhaka. Multivariate analysis of survey data reveals that value of residential unit and respondent educational levels appear as the most significant determinants of preparedness status of the respondents. This study recommends increasing earthquake awareness and preparedness among residents of Dhaka City.

  2. Using chemical categories to fill data gaps in hazard assessment.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leeuwen, K. van; Schultz, T.W.; Henry, T.; Diderich, B.; Veith, G.D.

    2009-01-01

    Hazard assessments of chemicals have been limited by the availability of test data and the time needed to evaluate the test data. While available data may be inadequate for the majority of industrial chemicals, the body of existing knowledge for most hazards is large enough to permit reliable

  3. A stochastic risk assessment for Eastern Europe and Central Asian countries for earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Schaefer, Andreas; Toro, Joaquin; Murnane, Rick; Tijssen, Annegien; Simpson, Alanna; Saito, Keiko; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip

    2015-04-01

    This systematic assessment of earthquake risk for 33 countries in the ECA region was motivated by the interest of the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) in supporting Disaster Risk Management (DRM) efforts. They envisaged an exposure-based analysis that looked at the potential economic and/or social exposure of the populations of various countries to earthquake risk. Using a stochastic earthquake hazard model and historical catalogues, a unified earthquake catalogue was created for the 33 countries. A combined fault and background source model was created using data from many authors. The maximum magnitude and seismotectonic source zone discretization was undertaken using logic tree approaches. Site effects were taken into account on the basis of local topography and tectonic regime. Two approaches were used to calculate local ground motion - intensity prediction equations for MMI and a combination of GMPEs for stable and active settings. A 1km grid was used for analysis with aggregations of exposure quantified in terms of GDP and capital stock using disaggregated provincial analysis from CATDAT, as well as population data from Deltares. Vulnerability functions were calculated using socio-economic empirical functions derived by Daniell (2014) for the countries taking into account historical losses, seismic resistant code implementation and building typologies in each country. PML curves were created for each province in the 33 nations, through 3 methods; the 1st using direct historical values via the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database; the 2nd using normalization procedures in order to provide a quick estimate of the historical record quantified in today's terms filling in gaps; and the 3rd being a traditional stochastic modelling approach over a period of 10,000 years taking all uncertainties into account. SSP projections of growth from the OECD were used to quantify the risk in 2010, 2030 and 2080 in order to examine

  4. Rapid landslide risk assessment of transport infrastructure following the 13 November 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand, earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Tom; Rosser, Nick

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake-generated landslides pose a significant risk to critical infrastructure, especially transport networks. For post-earthquake emergency response, identifying where landslides have affected transport networks is vital for understanding the ground access available to affected locations. However, post-earthquake landslide mapping is a difficult and time-consuming task, hindered by issues relating to the collection and processing of satellite images, cloud cover, and manual mapping. The development of rapid landslide modelling techniques for post-earthquake application can allow landslide hazard and risk to be modelled within hours of the earthquake occurring, leading to faster understanding of the likely losses to transport infrastructure. This study presents the results of efforts to rapidly model the extent of and losses related to landsliding following the 13 November 2016 Kaikoura earthquake in New Zealand. Using previously published data on landslide pre-disposing factors, the landslide hazard resulting from this earthquake was modelled in order to identify locations where landslides were most likely. This was combined with a simple horizon-scanning method along critical transport lines to identify zones in which landslides could potentially impact the networks. Landslide hazard in these zones was subsequently weighted by the reach angle to the respective network and averaged for the entire zone. The results show the relative risk of landslides impacting different sections of the transport networks and were derived within 48 hours of the earthquake occurring. These models rapidly and correctly highlighted the numerous blockages along the vital State Highway 1 link between Christchurch and Kaikoura, as well as those on the only alternative inland route. This demonstrates that accurate and rapid analysis of landslide losses can be undertaken immediately post-earthquake, with results potentially available within hours of the event, far sooner than current

  5. Assessment of tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xingru; Yin, Baoshu

    2017-04-01

    Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other

  6. Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautam, Dipendra

    2017-12-01

    This paper investigates district-wide social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal. Disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, epidemics, and droughts are common in Nepal. Every year thousands of people are killed and huge economic and environmental losses occur in Nepal due to various natural hazards. Although natural hazards are well recognized, quantitative and qualitative social vulnerability mapping has not existed until now in Nepal. This study aims to quantify the social vulnerability on a local scale, considering all 75 districts using the available census. To perform district-level vulnerability mapping, 13 variables were selected and aggregated indexes were plotted in an ArcGIS environment. The sum of results shows that only 4 districts in Nepal have a very low social vulnerability index whereas 46 districts (61 %) are at moderate to high social vulnerability levels. Vulnerability mapping highlights the immediate need for decentralized frameworks to tackle natural hazards in district level; additionally, the results of this study can contribute to preparedness, planning and resource management, inter-district coordination, contingency planning, and public awareness efforts.

  7. Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gautam

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates district-wide social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal. Disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, epidemics, and droughts are common in Nepal. Every year thousands of people are killed and huge economic and environmental losses occur in Nepal due to various natural hazards. Although natural hazards are well recognized, quantitative and qualitative social vulnerability mapping has not existed until now in Nepal. This study aims to quantify the social vulnerability on a local scale, considering all 75 districts using the available census. To perform district-level vulnerability mapping, 13 variables were selected and aggregated indexes were plotted in an ArcGIS environment. The sum of results shows that only 4 districts in Nepal have a very low social vulnerability index whereas 46 districts (61 % are at moderate to high social vulnerability levels. Vulnerability mapping highlights the immediate need for decentralized frameworks to tackle natural hazards in district level; additionally, the results of this study can contribute to preparedness, planning and resource management, inter-district coordination, contingency planning, and public awareness efforts.

  8. Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards and success stories in disaster prevention and mitigation in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo

    2016-04-01

    The Philippines, being a locus of typhoons, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. Natural hazards inflict loss of lives and costly damage to property in the country. In 2011, after tropical storm Washi devastated cities in southern Philippines, the Department of Science and Technology put in place a responsive program to warn and give communities hours-in-advance lead-time to prepare for imminent hazards and use advanced science and technology to enhance geohazard maps for more effective disaster prevention and mitigation. Since its launch, there have been many success stories on the use of Project NOAH, which after Typhoon Haiyan was integrated into the Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) system of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), the government agency tasked to prepare for, and respond to, natural calamities. Learning from past disasters, NDRRMC now issues warnings, through scientific advise from DOST-Project NOAH and PAGASA (Philippine Weather Bureau) that are hazards-specific, area-focused and time-bound. Severe weather events in 2015 generated dangerous hazard phenomena such as widespread floods and massive debris flows, which if not for timely, accessible and understandable warnings, could have turned into disasters. We call these events as "disasters that did not happen". The innovative warning system of the Philippine government has so far proven effective in addressing the impacts of hydrometeorological hazards and can be employed elsewhere in the world.

  9. Analysis on Two Typical Landslide Hazard Phenomena in The Wenchuan Earthquake by Field Investigations and Shaking Table Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changwei Yang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Based on our field investigations of landslide hazards in the Wenchuan earthquake, some findings can be reported: (1 the multi-aspect terrain facing empty isolated mountains and thin ridges reacted intensely to the earthquake and was seriously damaged; (2 the slope angles of most landslides was larger than 45°. Considering the above disaster phenomena, the reasons are analyzed based on shaking table tests of one-sided, two-sided and four-sided slopes. The analysis results show that: (1 the amplifications of the peak accelerations of four-sided slopes is stronger than that of the two-sided slopes, while that of the one-sided slope is the weakest, which can indirectly explain the phenomena that the damage is most serious; (2 the amplifications of the peak accelerations gradually increase as the slope angles increase, and there are two inflection points which are the point where the slope angle is 45° and where the slope angle is 50°, respectively, which can explain the seismic phenomenon whereby landslide hazards mainly occur on the slopes whose slope angle is bigger than 45°. The amplification along the slope strike direction is basically consistent, and the step is smooth.

  10. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, considering empirically estimated site effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahid Ullah

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that variability in the surface geology potentially leads to the modification of earthquake-induced ground motion over short distances. Although this effect is of major importance when seismic hazard is assessed at the urban level, it is very often not appropriately accounted for. In this paper, we present a first attempt at taking into account the influence of the shallow geological structure on the seismic hazard assessment for Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, using a proxy (Vs30 that has been estimated from in situ seismic noise array analyses, and considering response spectral ratios calculated by analyzing a series of earthquake recordings of a temporary seismic network. To highlight the spatial variability of the observed ground motion, the obtained results are compared with those estimated assuming a homogeneous Vs30 value over the whole urban area. The seismic hazard is evaluated in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA and spectral acceleration (SA at different periods (frequencies. The presented results consider the values obtained for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest SA estimated considering a rock site classification of the area (0.43 g is observed for a period of 0.1 s (10 Hz, while the maximum PGA reaches 0.21 g. When site effects are included through the Vs30 proxy in the seismic hazard calculation, the largest SA, 0.67 g, is obtained for a period of 0.3 s (about 3.3 Hz. In terms of PGA, in this case the largest estimated value reaches 0.31 g in the northern part of the town. When the variability of ground motion is accounted for through response spectrum ratios, the largest SA reaches a value as high as 1.39 g at a period of 0.5 s. In general, considering site effects in the seismic hazard assessment of Bishkek leads to an increase of seismic hazard in the north of the city, which is thus identified as the most hazardous part within the study area and which is more far away from the faults.

  11. Tsunami hazards to U.S. coasts from giant earthquakes in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Holly; von Huene, Roland; Scholl, Dave; Kirby, Steve

    2012-05-01

    In the aftermath of Japan's devastating 11 March 2011Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, scientists are considering whether and how a similar tsunami could be generated along the Alaskan-Aleutian subduction zone (AASZ). A tsunami triggered by an earthquake along the AASZ would cross the Pacific Ocean and cause extensive damage along highly populated U.S. coasts, with ports being particularly vulnerable. For example, a tsunami in 1946 generated by a Mw 8.6 earthquake near Unimak Pass, Alaska (Figure 1a), caused signifcant damage along the U.S. West Coast, took 150 lives in Hawaii, and inundated shorelines of South Pacific islands and Antarctica [Fryer et al., 2004; Lopez and Okal, 2006]. The 1946 tsunami occurred before modern broadband seismometers were in place, and the mechanisms that created it remain poorly understood.

  12. Earthquake Damage Assessment Using Objective Image Segmentation: A Case Study of 2010 Haiti Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oommen, Thomas; Rebbapragada, Umaa; Cerminaro, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we perform a case study on imagery from the Haiti earthquake that evaluates a novel object-based approach for characterizing earthquake induced surface effects of liquefaction against a traditional pixel based change technique. Our technique, which combines object-oriented change detection with discriminant/categorical functions, shows the power of distinguishing earthquake-induced surface effects from changes in buildings using the object properties concavity, convexity, orthogonality and rectangularity. Our results suggest that object-based analysis holds promise in automatically extracting earthquake-induced damages from high-resolution aerial/satellite imagery.

  13. Time-decreasing hazard and increasing time until the next earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corral, Alvaro

    2005-01-01

    The existence of a slowly always decreasing probability density for the recurrence times of earthquakes in the stationary case implies that the occurrence of an event at a given instant becomes more unlikely as time since the previous event increases. Consequently, the expected waiting time to the next earthquake increases with the elapsed time, that is, the event moves away fast to the future. We have found direct empirical evidence of this counterintuitive behavior in two worldwide catalogs as well as in diverse regional catalogs. Universal scaling functions describe the phenomenon well

  14. AECB workshop on seismic hazard assessment in Southern Ontario. Recorded proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    A workshop on seismic hazard assessment in southern Ontario was conducted on June 19-21, 1995. The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence in southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources; Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information. Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources. Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. This document presents transcripts from recordings made of the presentations and discussion from the workshop. It will be noted, in some sections of the document, that the record is incomplete. This is due in part to recording equipment malfunction and in part due to the poor quality of recording obtained for certain periods

  15. Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for Lebanon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdallah, Chadi; Darwich, Talal; Hamze, Mouin; Zaarour, Nathalie

    2014-05-01

    Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. In fact, floods are responsible for over one third of people affected by natural disasters; almost 190 million people in more than 90 countries are exposed to catastrophic floods every year. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase, therefore, flood prediction and prevention has become a necessity in many places around the globe to decrease damages caused by flooding. Available evidence hints at an increasing frequency of flooding disasters being witnessed in the last 25 years in Lebanon. The consequences of such events are tragic including annual financial losses of around 15 million dollars. In this work, a hydrologic-hydraulic modeling framework for flood hazard mapping over Lebanon covering 19 watershed was introduced. Several empirical, statistical and stochastic methods to calculate the flood magnitude and its related return periods, where rainfall and river gauge data are neither continuous nor available on a long term basis with an absence of proper river sections that under estimate flows during flood events. TRMM weather satellite information, automated drainage networks, curve numbers and other geometrical characteristics for each basin was prepared using WMS-software and then exported into HMS files to implement the hydrologic modeling (rainfall-runoff) for single designed storm of uniformly distributed depth along each basin. The obtained flow hydrographs were implemented in the hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) where relative water surface profiles are calculated and flood plains are delineated. The model was calibrated using the last flood event of January 2013, field investigation, and high resolution satellite images. Flow results proved to have an accuracy ranging between 83-87% when compared to the computed statistical and stochastic methods. Results included the generation of

  16. Globe of Natural Hazard - A new assessment tool for risk managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, A. C.

    2009-04-01

    A large number of tropical cyclones and the earthquake in Sichuan made 2008 one of the most devastating years on record. Throughout the world, more than 220,000 people died as a result of natural catastrophes this year. Overall losses totaled some US 200bn (2007: US 82bn). Insured losses in 2008 rose to US 45bn, about 50% higher than in the previous year. Mainly driven by high losses from weather-related natural catastrophes, 2008 was - on the basis of figures adjusted for inflation - even the third most expensive year on record for the insurance industry, exceeded only by the hurricane year of 2005 and by 1995, the year of the Kobe earthquake. Munich Re, a worldwide operating reinsurance company, is a world leader in terms of investigating risks from natural hazards of all kinds. 2008 has again shown the insurance industry how important it is to analyse risks like natural hazards and climate change in all their facets and to manage the insurance business accordingly. An excellent example of the wealth of knowledge Munich Re has developed in natural hazard assessment is the DVD "Globe of Natural Hazards". It combines the geoscientific data and findings Munich Re has accumulated over a period of 35 years. First devised as a wall-map in 1978, the product has established itself as a standard work for the identification, exposure assessment and risk management of natural hazards. Over 80,000 copies of the CD-ROM version of 2000 have been provided to clients - a mark achieved by no other service product in Munich Re's history. Since the beginning of 2009, the fully updated fourth-generation version has been available. The bilingual DVD (German and English) shows natural hazards and climate effects at a glance: the global maps are presented on a 3D globe, underlaid with satellite images. The hazard complexes of hail, tornado and winter storms have been completely revised and flood incorporated as a new hazard. Users can intuitively home in on and enlarge any location on

  17. Computational Approaches to Chemical Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luechtefeld, Thomas; Hartung, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    Summary Computational prediction of toxicity has reached new heights as a result of decades of growth in the magnitude and diversity of biological data. Public packages for statistics and machine learning make model creation faster. New theory in machine learning and cheminformatics enables integration of chemical structure, toxicogenomics, simulated and physical data in the prediction of chemical health hazards, and other toxicological information. Our earlier publications have characterized a toxicological dataset of unprecedented scale resulting from the European REACH legislation (Registration Evaluation Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals). These publications dove into potential use cases for regulatory data and some models for exploiting this data. This article analyzes the options for the identification and categorization of chemicals, moves on to the derivation of descriptive features for chemicals, discusses different kinds of targets modeled in computational toxicology, and ends with a high-level perspective of the algorithms used to create computational toxicology models. PMID:29101769

  18. Detailed debris flow hazard assessment in Andorra: A multidisciplinary approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hürlimann, Marcel; Copons, Ramon; Altimir, Joan

    2006-08-01

    In many mountainous areas, the rapid development of urbanisation and the limited space in the valley floors have created a need to construct buildings in zones potentially exposed to debris flow hazard. In these zones, a detailed and coherent hazard assessment is necessary to provide an adequate urban planning. This article presents a multidisciplinary procedure to evaluate the debris flow hazard at a local scale. Our four-step approach was successfully applied to five torrent catchments in the Principality of Andorra, located in the Pyrenees. The first step consisted of a comprehensive geomorphologic and geologic analysis providing an inventory map of the past debris flows, a magnitude-frequency relationship, and a geomorphologic-geologic map. These data were necessary to determine the potential initiation zones and volumes of future debris flows for each catchment. A susceptibility map and different scenarios were the principal outcome of the first step, as well as essential input data for the second step, the runout analysis. A one-dimensional numerical code was applied to analyse the scenarios previously defined. First, the critical channel sections in the fan area were evaluated, then the maximum runout of the debris flows on the fan was studied, and finally simplified intensity maps for each defined scenario were established. The third step of our hazard assessment was the hazard zonation and the compilation of all the results from the two previous steps in a final hazard map. The base of this hazard map was the hazard matrix, which combined the intensity of the debris flow with its probability of occurrence and determined a certain hazard degree. The fourth step referred to the hazard mitigation and included some recommendations for hazard reduction. In Andorra, this four-step approach is actually being applied to assess the debris flow hazard. The final hazard maps, at 1 : 2000 scale, provide an obligatory tool for local land use planning. Experience

  19. Advanced Manufacturing Processes Laboratory Building 878 hazards assessment document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, C.; Thornton, W.; Swihart, A.; Gilman, T.

    1994-07-01

    The introduction of the hazards assessment process is to document the impact of the release of hazards at the Advanced Manufacturing Processes Laboratory (AMPL) that are significant enough to warrant consideration in Sandia National Laboratories` operational emergency management program. This hazards assessment is prepared in accordance with the Department of Energy Order 5500.3A requirement that facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment provides an analysis of the potential airborne release of chemicals associated with the operations and processes at the AMPL. This research and development laboratory develops advanced manufacturing technologies, practices, and unique equipment and provides the fabrication of prototype hardware to meet the needs of Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico (SNL/NM). The focus of the hazards assessment is the airborne release of materials because this requires the most rapid, coordinated emergency response on the part of the AMPL, SNL/NM, collocated facilities, and surrounding jurisdiction to protect workers, the public, and the environment.

  20. Advanced Manufacturing Processes Laboratory Building 878 hazards assessment document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, C.; Thornton, W.; Swihart, A.; Gilman, T.

    1994-07-01

    The introduction of the hazards assessment process is to document the impact of the release of hazards at the Advanced Manufacturing Processes Laboratory (AMPL) that are significant enough to warrant consideration in Sandia National Laboratories' operational emergency management program. This hazards assessment is prepared in accordance with the Department of Energy Order 5500.3A requirement that facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment provides an analysis of the potential airborne release of chemicals associated with the operations and processes at the AMPL. This research and development laboratory develops advanced manufacturing technologies, practices, and unique equipment and provides the fabrication of prototype hardware to meet the needs of Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico (SNL/NM). The focus of the hazards assessment is the airborne release of materials because this requires the most rapid, coordinated emergency response on the part of the AMPL, SNL/NM, collocated facilities, and surrounding jurisdiction to protect workers, the public, and the environment

  1. Seismic Considerations--Elementary and Secondary Schools, Revised Edition. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Series 34.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Building Seismic Safety Council, Washington, DC.

    Elementary and secondary schools deserve special attention with respect to seismic safety because of their special occupancy characteristics and their importance to immediate and long-term earthquake disaster relief and recovery efforts. Seismic safety provisions, when incorporated in a sound design from the very beginning, usually amount to only…

  2. Recent research in earth structure, earthquake and mine seismology, and seismic hazard evaluation in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wright, C

    2003-07-01

    Full Text Available earthquake data recorded by the temporary Kaapvaal broad-band seismic network and SANSN. A significant increase in crustal thickness of about 10km was also identified between the southern part of the Kaapvaal craton and the northern region affected...

  3. System Safety Hazards Assessment in Conceptual Program Trade Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eben, Dennis M.; Saemisch, Michael K.

    2003-01-01

    Providing a program in the concept development phase with a method of determining system safety benefits of potential concepts has always been a challenge. Lockheed Martin Space and Strategic Missiles has developed a methodology for developing a relative system safety ranking using the potential hazards of each concept. The resulting output supports program decisions with system safety as an evaluation criterion with supporting data for evaluation. This approach begins with a generic hazards list that has been tailored for the program being studied and augmented with an initial hazard analysis. Each proposed concept is assessed against the list of program hazards and ranked in three derived areas. The hazards can be weighted to show those that are of more concern to the program. Sensitivities can be also be determined to test the robustness of the conclusions

  4. Far field tsunami simulations of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake: Implications for tsunami hazard to the U.S. East Coast and the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkan, R.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Lin, J.

    2009-01-01

    The great Lisbon earthquake of November 1st, 1755 with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.5-9.0 was the most destructive earthquake in European history. The associated tsunami run-up was reported to have reached 5-15??m along the Portuguese and Moroccan coasts and the run-up was significant at the Azores and Madeira Island. Run-up reports from a trans-oceanic tsunami were documented in the Caribbean, Brazil and Newfoundland (Canada). No reports were documented along the U.S. East Coast. Many attempts have been made to characterize the 1755 Lisbon earthquake source using geophysical surveys and modeling the near-field earthquake intensity and tsunami effects. Studying far field effects, as presented in this paper, is advantageous in establishing constraints on source location and strike orientation because trans-oceanic tsunamis are less influenced by near source bathymetry and are unaffected by triggered submarine landslides at the source. Source location, fault orientation and bathymetry are the main elements governing transatlantic tsunami propagation to sites along the U.S. East Coast, much more than distance from the source and continental shelf width. Results of our far and near-field tsunami simulations based on relative amplitude comparison limit the earthquake source area to a region located south of the Gorringe Bank in the center of the Horseshoe Plain. This is in contrast with previously suggested sources such as Marqu??s de Pombal Fault, and Gulf of C??diz Fault, which are farther east of the Horseshoe Plain. The earthquake was likely to be a thrust event on a fault striking ~ 345?? and dipping to the ENE as opposed to the suggested earthquake source of the Gorringe Bank Fault, which trends NE-SW. Gorringe Bank, the Madeira-Tore Rise (MTR), and the Azores appear to have acted as topographic scatterers for tsunami energy, shielding most of the U.S. East Coast from the 1755 Lisbon tsunami. Additional simulations to assess tsunami hazard to the U.S. East

  5. Revolutionary Wake Hazard Assessment Tool, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Continuum Dynamics, Inc. (CDI) has developed a Multiple Aircraft Simulation Tool (MAST) that revolutionizes the ability to predict and assess wake interactions...

  6. Probabilistic assessment of landslide tsunami hazard for the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pampell-Manis, A.; Horrillo, J.; Shigihara, Y.; Parambath, L.

    2016-01-01

    The devastating consequences of recent tsunamis affecting Indonesia and Japan have prompted a scientific response to better assess unexpected tsunami hazards. Although much uncertainty exists regarding the recurrence of large-scale tsunami events in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), geological evidence indicates that a tsunami is possible and would most likely come from a submarine landslide triggered by an earthquake. This study customizes for the GoM a first-order probabilistic landslide tsunami hazard assessment. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is employed to determine landslide configurations based on distributions obtained from observational submarine mass failure (SMF) data. Our MCS approach incorporates a Cholesky decomposition method for correlated landslide size parameters to capture correlations seen in the data as well as uncertainty inherent in these events. Slope stability analyses are performed using landslide and sediment properties and regional seismic loading to determine landslide configurations which fail and produce a tsunami. The probability of each tsunamigenic failure is calculated based on the joint probability of slope failure and probability of the triggering earthquake. We are thus able to estimate sizes and return periods for probabilistic maximum credible landslide scenarios. We find that the Cholesky decomposition approach generates landslide parameter distributions that retain the trends seen in observational data, improving the statistical validity and relevancy of the MCS technique in the context of landslide tsunami hazard assessment. Estimated return periods suggest that probabilistic maximum credible SMF events in the north and northwest GoM have a recurrence of 5000-8000 years, in agreement with age dates of observed deposits.

  7. Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.

    2014-01-01

    The effect of undersampling on estimating the size of extreme natural hazards from historical data is examined. Tests using synthetic catalogs indicate that the tail of an empirical size distribution sampled from a pure Pareto probability distribution can range from having one-to-several unusually large events to appearing depleted, relative to the parent distribution. Both of these effects are artifacts caused by limited catalog length. It is more difficult to diagnose the artificially depleted empirical distributions, since one expects that a pure Pareto distribution is physically limited in some way. Using maximum likelihood methods and the method of moments, we estimate the power-law exponent and the corner size parameter of tapered Pareto distributions for several natural hazard examples: tsunamis, floods, and earthquakes. Each of these examples has varying catalog lengths and measurement thresholds, relative to the largest event sizes. In many cases where there are only several orders of magnitude between the measurement threshold and the largest events, joint two-parameter estimation techniques are necessary to account for estimation dependence between the power-law scaling exponent and the corner size parameter. Results indicate that whereas the corner size parameter of a tapered Pareto distribution can be estimated, its upper confidence bound cannot be determined and the estimate itself is often unstable with time. Correspondingly, one cannot statistically reject a pure Pareto null hypothesis using natural hazard catalog data. Although physical limits to the hazard source size and by attenuation mechanisms from source to site constrain the maximum hazard size, historical data alone often cannot reliably determine the corner size parameter. Probabilistic assessments incorporating theoretical constraints on source size and propagation effects are preferred over deterministic assessments of extreme natural hazards based on historic data.

  8. Correlating regional natural hazards for global reinsurance risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steptoe, Hamish; Maynard, Trevor; Economou, Theo; Fox, Helen; Wallace, Emily; Maisey, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Concurrent natural hazards represent an uncertainty in assessing exposure for the insurance industry. The recently implemented Solvency II Directive requires EU insurance companies to fully understand and justify their capital reserving and portfolio decisions. Lloyd's, the London insurance and reinsurance market, commissioned the Met Office to investigate the dependencies between different global extreme weather events (known to the industry as perils), and the mechanisms for these dependencies, with the aim of helping them assess their compound risk to the exposure of multiple simultaneous hazards. In this work, we base the analysis of hazard-to-hazard dependency on the interaction of different modes of global and regional climate variability. Lloyd's defined 16 key hazard regions, including Australian wildfires, flooding in China and EU windstorms, and we investigate the impact of 10 key climate modes on these areas. We develop a statistical model that facilitates rapid risk assessment whilst allowing for both temporal auto-correlation and, crucially, interdependencies between drivers. The simulator itself is built conditionally using autoregressive regression models for each driver conditional on the others. Whilst the baseline assumption within the (re)insurance industry is that different natural hazards are independent of each other, the assumption of independence of meteorological risks requires greater justification. Although our results suggest that most of the 120 hazard-hazard connections considered are likely to be independent of each other, 13 have significant dependence arising from one or more global modes of climate variability. This allows us to create a matrix of linkages describing the hazard dependency structure that Lloyd's can use to inform their understanding of risk.

  9. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Piping Fragility due to Earthquake Fault Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bu Seog Ju

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A lifeline system, serving as an energy-supply system, is an essential component of urban infrastructure. In a hospital, for example, the piping system supplies elements essential for hospital operations, such as water and fire-suppression foam. Such nonstructural components, especially piping systems and their subcomponents, must remain operational and functional during earthquake-induced fires. But the behavior of piping systems as subjected to seismic ground motions is very complex, owing particularly to the nonlinearity affected by the existence of many connections such as T-joints and elbows. The present study carried out a probabilistic risk assessment on a hospital fire-protection piping system’s acceleration-sensitive 2-inch T-joint sprinkler components under seismic ground motions. Specifically, the system’s seismic capacity, using an experimental-test-based nonlinear finite element (FE model, was evaluated for the probability of failure under different earthquake-fault mechanisms including normal fault, reverse fault, strike-slip fault, and near-source ground motions. It was observed that the probabilistic failure of the T-joint of the fire-protection piping system varied significantly according to the fault mechanisms. The normal-fault mechanism led to a higher probability of system failure at locations 1 and 2. The strike-slip fault mechanism, contrastingly, affected the lowest fragility of the piping system at a higher PGA.

  10. Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Gülerce

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

  11. Seismic ground motion and hazard assessment of the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, southeastern Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amponsah, P.E.; Banoeng-Yakubo, B.K.; Asiedu, D.; Vaccari, F.; Panza, G.F.

    2008-08-01

    The seismic ground motion of the Greater Accra Metropolitan area has been computed and the hazard zones assessed using a deterministic hybrid approach based on the modal summation and finite difference methods. The seismic ground motion along four profiles located in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area has been modelled using the 1939 earthquake of magnitude 6.5(M L ) as the scenario earthquake. Synthetic seismic waveforms from which parameters for engineering design such as peak ground acceleration, velocity and spectral amplifications have been produced along the geological cross sections. From the seismograms computed, the seismic hazard of the metropolis, expressed in terms of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity have been estimated. The peak ground acceleration estimated in the study ranges from 0.14 - 0.57 g and the peak ground velocity from 9.2 - 37.1cms -1 . The presence of low velocity sediments gave rise to high peak values and amplifications. The maximum peak ground accelerations estimated are located in areas with low velocity formations such as colluvium, continental and marine deposits. Areas in the metropolis underlain by unconsolidated sediments have been classified as the maximum damage potential zone and those underlain by highly consolidated geological materials are classified as low damage potential zone. The results of the numerical simulation have been extended to all areas in the metropolis with similar geological formation. (author)

  12. Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gülerce, Zeynep; Buğra Soyman, Kadir; Güner, Barış; Kaymakci, Nuretdin

    2017-12-01

    This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

  13. Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

    2012-04-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of

  14. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the historical peninsula of Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Ç. Ince

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In order to design buildings that are resistant to earthquakes, first it is necessary to determine the parameters of ground motion. In this study, the earthquake seismic hazard analysis of the Old City Districts of Istanbul (Fatih and Eminonu was probabilistically defined. For the analysis, the study zone was divided into 307 cells of 250 × 250 m using geographical information systems, and these cells were used in the mapping of all the data obtained. Then, for a building lifetime of 50 yr, the acceleration parameters of earthquake ground motions, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and spectral acceleration values of 0.2 s and 1 s were obtained at the bedrock level according to 10% and 40% exceedances. Additionally, in order to produce the artificial acceleration-time records of the ground movement in accordance with the NEHRP acceleration spectrum, the TARSCHTS computer simulation program was utilized. The results of the analysis showed that for the 10% probability of exceedance, the peak bedrock acceleration values ranged from 0.30 g to 0.40 g, and for the 40% exceedance probability the acceleration values ranged from 0.22 g to 0.17 g. The Ss 10% exceedance probability, calculated according to the spectral acceleration parameter, ranged from 0.67 g to 0.85 g and the spectral acceleration parameter S1 varied between 0.22 g–0.28 g. The Ss 40% exceedance probability, calculated according to the spectral acceleration parameter, ranged from 0.46 g to 0.38 g and the spectral acceleration parameter S1 varied from 0.12 g to 0.14 g.

  15. A national seismographic network for assessing seismic hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masse, R.P.; Murphy, A.J.

    1989-01-01

    To access the seismic hazard of a region and to establish the design and construction criteria for critical facilities such as nuclear power plants, detailed information is required on the frequency of occurrence, geographical distribution, magnitude, and energy spectra of earthquakes. Also important is information on the frequency-dependent attenuation of seismic waves. This information can all be obtained from data recorded by networks of seismograph stations. A new seismograph network for the US which takes advantage of advances in technology is currently under development. This network is the US National Seismograph Network (USNSN). The USNSN is a cooperative effort between the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the US Geological survey and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The USNSN will be installed and operated by the NEIC. The network will consist of approximately 150 seismograph stations distributed across the lower 48 states and across Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. The design goal for the network is the on-scale recording by at least five well-distributed stations of any event of magnitude 2.5 or larger in the continental US, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, and of any event of magnitude 3.5 or larger in Alaska. The rapid access to all USNSN data will be provided by the NEIC. This will be accomplished both via a dial-up capability to the event waveform data base and by satellite transmission in a broadcast mode. All earthquake data will also be distributed on compact disk with read only memory (CD-ROM) to all institutions having an interest in the seismic data

  16. From tsunami hazard assessment to risk management in Guadeloupe (F.W.I.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahibo, Narcisse; Dudon, Bernard; Krien, Yann; Arnaud, Gaël; Mercado, Aurelio; Roger, Jean

    2017-04-01

    The Caribbean region is prone to numerous natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, storm surges, tsunamis, coastal erosion or hurricanes. All these threats may cause great human and economic losses and are thus of prime interest for applied research. One of the main challenges for the scientific community is to conduct state-of-the-art research to assess hazards and share the results with coastal planners and decision makers so that they can regulate land use and develop mitigation strategies. We present here the results of a scientific collaborative project between Guadeloupe and Porto Rico which aimed at bringing a decision-making support to the authorities regarding tsunami hazards. This project led us to build a database of potential extreme events, and to study their impacts on Guadeloupe to investigate storm surge and tsunami hazards. The results were used by local authorities to develop safeguarding and mitigation measures in coastal areas. This project is thus a good example to demonstrate the benefit of inter Caribbean scientific collaboration for natural risks management.

  17. Probabilistic seismic assessment of base-isolated NPPs subjected to strong ground motions of Tohoku earthquake

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ali, Ahmer; Hayah, Nadin Abu; Kim, Doo Kie [Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Kunsan National University, Kunsan (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Sung Gook [R and D Center, JACE KOREA Company, Gyeonggido (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    The probabilistic seismic performance of a standard Korean nuclear power plant (NPP) with an idealized isolation is investigated in the present work. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Wolsong site on the Korean peninsula is performed by considering peak ground acceleration (PGA) as an earthquake intensity measure. A procedure is reported on the categorization and selection of two sets of ground motions of the Tohoku earthquake, i.e. long-period and common as Set A and Set B respectively, for the nonlinear time history response analysis of the base-isolated NPP. Limit state values as multiples of the displacement responses of the NPP base isolation are considered for the fragility estimation. The seismic risk of the NPP is further assessed by incorporation of the rate of frequency exceedance and conditional failure probability curves. Furthermore, this framework attempts to show the unacceptable performance of the isolated NPP in terms of the probabilistic distribution and annual probability of limit states. The comparative results for long and common ground motions are discussed to contribute to the future safety of nuclear facilities against drastic events like Tohoku.

  18. PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC ASSESSMENT OF BASE-ISOLATED NPPS SUBJECTED TO STRONG GROUND MOTIONS OF TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AHMER ALI

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The probabilistic seismic performance of a standard Korean nuclear power plant (NPP with an idealized isolation is investigated in the present work. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA of the Wolsong site on the Korean peninsula is performed by considering peak ground acceleration (PGA as an earthquake intensity measure. A procedure is reported on the categorization and selection of two sets of ground motions of the Tohoku earthquake, i.e. long-period and common as Set A and Set B respectively, for the nonlinear time history response analysis of the base-isolated NPP. Limit state values as multiples of the displacement responses of the NPP base isolation are considered for the fragility estimation. The seismic risk of the NPP is further assessed by incorporation of the rate of frequency exceedance and conditional failure probability curves. Furthermore, this framework attempts to show the unacceptable performance of the isolated NPP in terms of the probabilistic distribution and annual probability of limit states. The comparative results for long and common ground motions are discussed to contribute to the future safety of nuclear facilities against drastic events like Tohoku.

  19. Guideline for assessing the performance of electric power systems in natural hazard and human threat events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, W.U.; Nishenko, S.P.; Honegger, D.G.; Kempner, L.

    2006-01-01

    Electric power utilities are familiar with and skilled in preparing for and responding to almost-routine natural hazard events such as strong wind and ice storms and seasonal floods, as well as intentional human acts such as vandalism. Recent extreme weather (hurricanes Katrina and Rita), extremely destructive international earthquakes (in Sumatra and Pakistan), and nation-wide concerns regarding future terrorist attacks have increased the pressure on utilities to take appropriate steps to avoid being overwhelmed by such infrequent and exceedingly severe events. Determining what constitutes the appropriate steps to take requires various levels of understanding of the specific hazards and the risks faced by the utility. The American Lifelines Alliance (www. americanlifelinesalliance.org) has prepared a Guideline that provides clear, concise, and nationally-applicable guidance on determining the scope and level of effort necessary to assess power system performance in the wide range of natural hazard or human threat events. Included in this Guideline are specific procedures to follow and information to consider in performing standardized assessments. With the results of such assessments, utility owners can effectively establish and carry out risk management programs that will lead to achieving appropriate levels of performance in future events. The Guideline incorporates an inquiry-driven process with a two-phase performance assessment that can be applied to power systems of any size. The screening phase enables systems or components that are clearly not at risk to be screened out early. The subsequent analysis phase uses results from the screening phase to prioritize and allocate resources for more detailed assessments of hazard, vulnerability, and system performance. This process helps assure that the scope of the assessment meets the specific performance objectives of the inquiry. A case history is presented to illustrate the type of experience with an inquiry

  20. Rapid assessment survey of earthquake affected Bhuj block of Kachchh District,FNx01 Gujarat, India

    OpenAIRE

    Pawar A; Shelke S; Kakrani V

    2005-01-01

    RESEARCH QUESTIONS: How much human loss would have caused by the earthquake in Bhuj block? What is the environmental sanitation status? OBJECTIVES: (1) To assess human loss and injuries after the earthquake in Bhuj block.(2) To study the status of some relief activities.(3) To study the environmental sanitation status of the earthquake affected Bhuj block. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTINGS: Bhuj block. Participants: All villages excluding Bhuj city of Bhuj block. Statist...

  1. Uncertainty on shallow landslide hazard assessment: from field data to hazard mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trefolini, Emanuele; Tolo, Silvia; Patelli, Eduardo; Broggi, Matteo; Disperati, Leonardo; Le Tuan, Hai

    2015-04-01

    Shallow landsliding that involve Hillslope Deposits (HD), the surficial soil that cover the bedrock, is an important process of erosion, transport and deposition of sediment along hillslopes. Despite Shallow landslides generally mobilize relatively small volume of material, they represent the most hazardous factor in mountain regions due to their high velocity and the common absence of warning signs. Moreover, increasing urbanization and likely climate change make shallow landslides a source of widespread risk, therefore the interest of scientific community about this process grown in the last three decades. One of the main aims of research projects involved on this topic, is to perform robust shallow landslides hazard assessment for wide areas (regional assessment), in order to support sustainable spatial planning. Currently, three main methodologies may be implemented to assess regional shallow landslides hazard: expert evaluation, probabilistic (or data mining) methods and physical models based methods. The aim of this work is evaluate the uncertainty of shallow landslides hazard assessment based on physical models taking into account spatial variables such as: geotechnical and hydrogeologic parameters as well as hillslope morphometry. To achieve this goal a wide dataset of geotechnical properties (shear strength, permeability, depth and unit weight) of HD was gathered by integrating field survey, in situ and laboratory tests. This spatial database was collected from a study area of about 350 km2 including different bedrock lithotypes and geomorphological features. The uncertainty associated to each step of the hazard assessment process (e.g. field data collection, regionalization of site specific information and numerical modelling of hillslope stability) was carefully characterized. The most appropriate probability density function (PDF) was chosen for each numerical variable and we assessed the uncertainty propagation on HD strength parameters obtained by

  2. Accumulation risk assessment for the flooding hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Giorgio; Ghizzoni, Tatiana; Rudari, Roberto

    2010-05-01

    One of the main consequences of the demographic and economic development and of markets and trades globalization is represented by risks cumulus. In most cases, the cumulus of risks intuitively arises from the geographic concentration of a number of vulnerable elements in a single place. For natural events, risks cumulus can be associated, in addition to intensity, also to event's extension. In this case, the magnitude can be such that large areas, that may include many regions or even large portions of different countries, are stroked by single, catastrophic, events. Among natural risks, the impact of the flooding hazard cannot be understated. To cope with, a variety of mitigation actions can be put in place: from the improvement of monitoring and alert systems to the development of hydraulic structures, throughout land use restrictions, civil protection, financial and insurance plans. All of those viable options present social and economic impacts, either positive or negative, whose proper estimate should rely on the assumption of appropriate - present and future - flood risk scenarios. It is therefore necessary to identify proper statistical methodologies, able to describe the multivariate aspects of the involved physical processes and their spatial dependence. In hydrology and meteorology, but also in finance and insurance practice, it has early been recognized that classical statistical theory distributions (e.g., the normal and gamma families) are of restricted use for modeling multivariate spatial data. Recent research efforts have been therefore directed towards developing statistical models capable of describing the forms of asymmetry manifest in data sets. This, in particular, for the quite frequent case of phenomena whose empirical outcome behaves in a non-normal fashion, but still maintains some broad similarity with the multivariate normal distribution. Fruitful approaches were recognized in the use of flexible models, which include the normal

  3. Integration of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Probabilistic Hazard Characterization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voet, van der H.; Slob, W.

    2007-01-01

    A method is proposed for integrated probabilistic risk assessment where exposure assessment and hazard characterization are both included in a probabilistic way. The aim is to specify the probability that a random individual from a defined (sub)population will have an exposure high enough to cause a

  4. Nowcasting Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Turcotte, D. L.; Luginbuhl, M.; Gail, G.

    2016-12-01

    Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least 20 or more large earthquake cycles in the region. We then compute the earthquake potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(nearthquakes in the region. From the count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, we determine the value of EPS = P(nhazard, and assigns a number between 0% and 100% to every region so defined, thus providing a unique measure. Physically, the EPS corresponds to an estimate of the level of progress through the earthquake cycle in the defined region at the current time.

  5. The New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX) Project - An overview of its major findings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Kevin; Zschau, Jochen; Gasparini, Paolo

    2014-05-01

    Recent major natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake, tsunami and subsequent Fukushima nuclear accident, have raised awareness of the frequent and potentially far-reaching interconnections between natural hazards. Such interactions occur at the hazard level, where an initial hazard may trigger other events (e.g., an earthquake triggering a tsunami) or several events may occur concurrently (or nearly so), e.g., severe weather around the same time as an earthquake. Interactions also occur at the vulnerability level, where the initial event may make the affected community more susceptible to the negative consequences of another event (e.g., an earthquake weakens buildings, which are then damaged further by windstorms). There is also a temporal element involved, where changes in exposure may alter the total risk to a given area. In short, there is the likelihood that the total risk estimated when considering multiple hazard and risks and their interactions is greater than the sum of their individual parts. It is with these issues in mind that the European Commission, under their FP7 program, supported the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project (10.2010 to 12.2013). MATRIX set out to tackle multiple natural hazards (i.e., those of concern to Europe, namely earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, tsunamis, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding) and risks within a common theoretical framework. The MATRIX work plan proceeded from an assessment of single-type risk methodologies (including how uncertainties should be treated), cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and an assessment of how the multi-hazard and risk viewpoint may be integrated into current decision making and risk mitigation programs, considering the existing single-hazard and risk focus. Three test sites were considered during the

  6. Tiechanshan-Tunghsiao anticline earthquake analysis: Implications for northwestern Taiwan potential carbon dioxide storage site seismic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruey-Juin Rau

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the seismicity and earthquake focal mechanisms beneath the Tiechanshan-Tunghsiao (TCS-TH anticline over the last two decades for seismic hazard evaluation of a potential carbon dioxide storage site in northwestern Taiwan. Seismicity in the TCS-TH anticline indicates both spatial and temporal clustering at a depth range of 7 - 12 km. Thirteen 3.0 ≤ ML ≤ 5.2 earthquake focal mechanisms show a combination of thrust, strike-slip, and normal faulting mechanisms under the TCS-TH anticline. A 1992 ML 5.2 earthquake with a focal depth of ~10 km, the largest event ever recorded beneath the TCS-TH anticline during the last two decades, has a normal fault mechanism with the T-axis trending NNE-SSW and nodal planes oriented NNW-SSE, dipping either gently to the NNE or steeply to the SSW. Thrust fault mechanisms that occurred with mostly E-W or NWW-SEE striking P-axes and strike-slip faulting events indicate NWW-SEE striking P-axes and NNE-SSW trending T-axes, which are consistent with the regional plate convergence direction. For the strike-slip faulting events, if we take the N-S or NNW-SSE striking nodal planes as the fault planes, the strike-slip faults are sinistral motions and correspond to the Tapingting fault, which is a strike-slip fault reactivated from the inherited normal fault and intersects the Tiechanshan and Tunghsiao anticlines.

  7. Hazard assessment and risk management of offshore production chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schobben, H.P.M.; Scholten, M.C.T.; Vik, E.A.; Bakke, S.

    1994-01-01

    There is a clear need for harmonization of the regulations with regard to the use and discharge of drilling and production chemicals in the North Sea. Therefore the CHARM (Chemical Hazard Assessment and Risk Management) model was developed. Both government (of several countries) and industry (E and P and chemical suppliers) participated in the project. The CHARM model is discussed and accepted by OSPARCON. The CHARM model consists of several modules. The model starts with a prescreening on the basis of hazardous properties like persistency, accumulation potential and the appearance on black lists. The core of the model.consists of modules for hazard assessment and risk analysis. Hazard assessment covers a general environmental evaluation of a chemical on the basis of intrinsic properties of that chemical. Risk analysis covers a more specific evaluation of the environmental impact from the use of a production chemical, or a combination of chemicals, under actual conditions. In the risk management module the user is guided to reduce the total risk of all chemicals used on a platform by the definition of measures in the most cost-effective way. The model calculates the environmental impact for the marine environment. Thereto three parts are distinguished: pelagic, benthic and food chain. Both hazard assessment and risk analysis are based on a proportional comparison of an estimated PEC with an estimated NEC. The PEC is estimated from the use, release, dilution and fate of the chemical and the NEC is estimated from the available toxicity data of the chemicals

  8. Variation of some Planetary seismic hazard indices on the occasion of Lefkada, Greece, earthquake of 17 November, 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contadakis, Michael E.; Arabelos, Demetrios N.; Vergos, George; Spatala, Spyrous; Skeberis, Christos; Xenos, Tomas D.

    2017-04-01

    By the term "Planetary seismic hazard indices" we mean parameters or observables which indicate the degree of the mutual interactions of tectonic active areas on the earth surface with some parts or phenomena of the Geosphere and the near Earth space. In this paper we investigate the variation of the tidal triggering effect efficiency, by means of the tidal seismicity compliance parameter p, (Arabelos et al. 2016, Contadakis et al. 2009, Contadakis et al. 2012, Vergos et al. 2015), as well as the lower Ionosphere variations, by means of the variation of the High-Frequency limit, fo, of the ionospheric turbulence content (Contadakis et al. 2009, Contadakis et al. 2012, Contadakis et al. 2015) with the time and space proximity to the site of the earthquake occurrence. The results of our investigation are: (1) The mapping of the tidal seismicity compliance parameter p, over the Greece indicate an increasing tectonic stress criticality for the year 2015 of the area of Ionian islands in relation to other areas in Greece, pointing to the area of a possible strong earthquake. (2) The High- Frequency limit fo, of the ionospheric turbulence content, measured analyzing TEC variations, increases as the site and the moment of the earthquake occurrence is approaching, pointing to the earthquake locus. (3) Finally, The analyzed data from the receiver of INFREP network in Thessaloniki (Skeberis et al. 2015), Greece (40.59N, 22,78E), which monitor VLF transmitters based in Tavolara , Niscemi, Italy, Keflavik, Iceland, and Anthorn, UKthe show that the signals from the two VLF European transmitters, transmitted over Lefkada, indicate enhanced high frequency variations, in accordance to the result of the TEC analysis, the last ten days before the moment of the earthquake occurrence. References Arabelos, D.N., Contadakis, E.M.,Vergos, G.,Spatalas, S.D., 2016, Variation of the Earth tide-seismicity compliance parameter during the recent seismic activity in Fthiotida, central Greece

  9. Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART in earthquake risk assessment: a case study of Delhi region, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishant Sinha

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This article is aimed at earthquake hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART, which is based on Saaty's multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique. The three specific study sites of Delhi were chosen for research as it corresponds to a typical patch of the urban environs, completely engrossed with residential, commercial and industrial units. The earthquake hazard affecting components are established in the form of geographic information system data-set layers including seismic zone, peak ground acceleration (PGA, soil characteristics, liquefaction potential, geological characteristics, land use, proximity to fault and epicentre. The physical vulnerability layers comprising building information, namely number of stories, year-built range, area, occupancy and construction type, derived from remote sensing imagery, were only considered for the current research. SMART was developed for earthquake risk assessment, and weights were derived both at component and its element level. Based on weighted overlay techniques, the earthquake hazard and vulnerability layers were created from which the risk maps were derived through multiplicative analysis. The developed risk maps may prove useful in decision-making process and formulating risk mitigation measures.

  10. Multi-scale earthquake hazard and risk in the Chinese mainland and countermeasures for the preparedness, mitigation, and management: an overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Z.; Jiang, C.; Ma, T.

    2012-12-01

    Earthquake hazard and risk in the Chinese mainland exhibit multi-scale characteristics. Temporal scales from centuries to months, spatial scales from the whole mainland to specific engineering structures, and energy scales from great disastrous earthquakes to small earthquakes causing social disturbance and economic loss, feature the complexity of earthquake disasters. Coping with such complex challenge, several research and application projects have been undertaken since recent years. Lessons and experiences of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake contributed much to the launching and conducting of these projects. Understandings of the scientific problems and technical approaches taken in the mainstream studies in the Chinese mainland have no significant difference from those in the international scientific communities, albeit using of some of the terminologies have "cultural differences" - for instance, in the China Earthquake Administration (CEA), the terminology "earthquake forecast/prediction (study)" is generally used in a much broader sense, mainly indicating time-dependent seismic hazard at different spatio-temporal scales. Several scientific products have been produced serving the society in different forms. These scientific products have unique academic merits due to the long-term persistence feature and the forward forecast nature, which are all essential for the evaluation of the technical performance and the falsification of the scientific ideas. On the other hand, using the language of the "actor network theory (ANT)" in science studies (or the sociology of science), at present, the hierarchical "actors' network", making the science transformed to the actions of the public and government for the preparedness, mitigation, and management of multi-scale earthquake disasters, is still in need of careful construction and improvement.

  11. National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

    2017-12-01

    National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The

  12. Active fault databases: building a bridge between earthquake geologists and seismic hazard practitioners, the case of the QAFI v.3 database

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Mayordomo, Julián; Martín-Banda, Raquel; Insua-Arévalo, Juan M.; Álvarez-Gómez, José A.; Martínez-Díaz, José J.; Cabral, João

    2017-08-01

    Active fault databases are a very powerful and useful tool in seismic hazard assessment, particularly when singular faults are considered seismogenic sources. Active fault databases are also a very relevant source of information for earth scientists, earthquake engineers and even teachers or journalists. Hence, active fault databases should be updated and thoroughly reviewed on a regular basis in order to keep a standard quality and uniformed criteria. Desirably, active fault databases should somehow indicate the quality of the geological data and, particularly, the reliability attributed to crucial fault-seismic parameters, such as maximum magnitude and recurrence interval. In this paper we explain how we tackled these issues during the process of updating and reviewing the Quaternary Active Fault Database of Iberia (QAFI) to its current version 3. We devote particular attention to describing the scheme devised for classifying the quality and representativeness of the geological evidence of Quaternary activity and the accuracy of the slip rate estimation in the database. Subsequently, we use this information as input for a straightforward rating of the level of reliability of maximum magnitude and recurrence interval fault seismic parameters. We conclude that QAFI v.3 is a much better database than version 2 either for proper use in seismic hazard applications or as an informative source for non-specialized users. However, we already envision new improvements for a future update.

  13. New assessment of the seismic hazard at the nuclear power plant sites in Switzerland (PEGASOS project)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Swiss Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are designed and built such as to resist strong earthquakes. They are amongst the buildings with the highest seismic safety in Switzerland. Nevertheless, earthquakes continue to represent a non-negligible hazard to the Swiss NPPs. Therefore, the Swiss Federal Agency for the Safety of Nuclear Installations (HSK) attaches great importance to the most comprehensive and accurate assessment of the seismic hazard. In order to assess the seismic hazard for the original design of the Swiss NPPs historic earthquake data were gathered. In the mid-1970s these data were evaluated statistically and written down in seismic hazard maps. With the introduction and development of the Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSA) in the 1980s the requirements for the seismic hazard analysis were further specified. From then on, the uncertainty range, which is caused by the inherent scatter of the data and the analysis models, had to be included in the seismic hazard analysis. The PSAs, which were conducted by the licensees of the Swiss NPPs, confirmed that seismic events can provide a substantial contribution to the overall exposure of the plants. Noting further advances in international projects in the field of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the HSK concluded that the original results from seismic hazard studies did not anymore represent the current state-of-the-art. In 1999, the HSK required that the licensees determined the seismic hazard according to the updated methods and included a comprehensive evaluation of all contributions to the uncertainties in the resulting hazard. In order to meet the HSK requirement, the licensees initiated the project PEGASOS (Probabilistic Assessment of Seismic Hazard for Swiss Nuclear Power Plant Sites). The seismic hazard was evaluated considering the broad knowledge of the relevant international expert community. Leading national and international earth science experts from independent organizations could be

  14. Integrative analysis and discoveries of Yellowstone science revealing new interpretations and assessments of earthquake and volcano risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, R. B.; Farrell, J.; Massin, F.; Puskas, C. M.; Chang, W.; Shelly, D. R.

    2013-12-01

    post-earthquake seismic stress contagion that will persist for tens to hundreds of years after the triggering event. In contrast, caldera seismicity reflects regional NE-SW extension of up to 5 mm/yr, one-fourth of the total extension of the entire Basin Range, with superposed localized and episodic stresses associated with magmatic/hydrothermal injection, migration, deflation, processes; 5) the largest Yellowstone earthquake swarms are shown to initiate coincident with caldera deformation reversal from uplift to subsidence based on GPS measurements, reflecting the lateral release of magmatic fluids migrating out of the magma reservoir. We hypothesize this process is a 'pressure relief valve' maintaining an equilibrium flux of magmatic fluids into and out of the crustal magma reservoir where every 20,000 years or so it erupts into rhyolite/basalt flows and every ~700,000 years leads into a supervolcano eruption; and 6) Our new hazard assessment of Yellowstone shows that the biggest geologic hazard and risk is from large earthquakes, not from volcanic eruptions, contrary to what has been commonly thought and communicated to the public.

  15. Risk assessment of debris flow hazards in natural slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Junghae; Chae, Byung-gon; Liu, Kofei; Wu, Yinghsin

    2016-04-01

    The study area is located at north-east part of South Korea. Referring to the map of landslide sus-ceptibility (KIGAM, 2009) from Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM for short), there are large areas of potential landslide in high probability on slope land of mountain near the study area. Besides, recently some severe landslide-induced debris flow hazards occurred in this area. So this site is convinced to be prone to debris flow haz-ards. In order to mitigate the influence of hazards, the assessment of potential debris flow hazards is very important and essential. In this assessment, we use Debris-2D, debris flow numerical program, to assess the potential debris flow hazards. The worst scenario is considered for simulation. The input mass sources are determined using landslide susceptibility map. The water input is referred to the daily accumulative rainfall in the past debris flow event in study area. The only one input material property, i.e. yield stress, is obtained using calibration test. The simulation results show that the study area has po-tential to be impacted by debris flow. Therefore, based on simulation results, to mitigate debris flow hazards, we can propose countermeasures, including building check dams, constructing a protection wall in study area, and installing instruments for active monitoring of debris flow hazards. Acknowledgements:This research was supported by the Public Welfare & Safety Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (NRF-2012M3A2A1050983)

  16. Program and plans of the U.S. Geological Survey for producing information needed in National Seismic hazards and risk assessment, fiscal years 1980-84

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Walter W.

    1979-01-01

    In accordance with the provisions of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-124), the U.S. Geological Survey has developed comprehensive plans for producing information needed to assess seismic hazards and risk on a national scale in fiscal years 1980-84. These plans are based on a review of the needs of Federal Government agencies, State and local government agencies, engineers and scientists engaged in consulting and research, professional organizations and societies, model code groups, and others. The Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act provided an unprecedented opportunity for participation in a national program by representatives of State and local governments, business and industry, the design professions, and the research community. The USGS and the NSF (National Science Foundation) have major roles in the national program. The ultimate goal of the program is to reduce losses from earthquakes. Implementation of USGS research in the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program requires the close coordination of responsibility between Federal, State and local governments. The projected research plan in national seismic hazards and risk for fiscal years 1980-84 will be accomplished by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers. The latter group will participate through grants and contracts. The research plan calls for (1) national maps based on existing methods, (2) improved definition of earthquake source zones nationwide, (3) development of improved methodology, (4) regional maps based on the improved methodology, and (5) post-earthquake investigations. Maps and reports designed to meet the needs, priorities, concerns, and recommendations of various user groups will be the products of this research and provide the technical basis for improved implementation.

  17. Summary of November 2010 meeting to evaluate turbidite data for constraining the recurrence parameters of great Cascadia earthquakes for the update of national seismic hazard maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankel, Arthur D.

    2011-01-01

    This report summarizes a meeting of geologists, marine sedimentologists, geophysicists, and seismologists that was held on November 18–19, 2010 at Oregon State University in Corvallis, Oregon. The overall goal of the meeting was to evaluate observations of turbidite deposits to provide constraints on the recurrence time and rupture extent of great Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquakes for the next update of the U.S. national seismic hazard maps (NSHM). The meeting was convened at Oregon State University because this is the major center for collecting and evaluating turbidite evidence of great Cascadia earthquakes by Chris Goldfinger and his colleagues. We especially wanted the participants to see some of the numerous deep sea cores this group has collected that contain the turbidite deposits. Great earthquakes on the CSZ pose a major tsunami, ground-shaking, and ground-failure hazard to the Pacific Northwest. Figure 1 shows a map of the Pacific Northwest with a model for the rupture zone of a moment magnitude Mw 9.0 earthquake on the CSZ and the ground shaking intensity (in ShakeMap format) expected from such an earthquake, based on empirical ground-motion prediction equations. The damaging effects of such an earthquake would occur over a wide swath of the Pacific Northwest and an accompanying tsunami would likely cause devastation along the Pacifc Northwest coast and possibly cause damage and loss of life in other areas of the Pacific. A magnitude 8 earthquake on the CSZ would cause damaging ground shaking and ground failure over a substantial area and could also generate a destructive tsunami. The recent tragic occurrence of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake highlights the importance of having accurate estimates of the recurrence times and magnitudes of great earthquakes on subduction zones. For the U.S. national seismic hazard maps, estimating the hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone has been based on coastal paleoseismic evidence of great

  18. Simulation Technology Laboratory Building 970 hazards assessment document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, C.L.; Starr, M.D.

    1994-11-01

    The Department of Energy Order 5500.3A requires facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the Simulation Technology Laboratory, Building 970. The entire inventory was screened according to the potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distances at which a postulated facility event will produce consequences exceeding the ERPG-2 and Early Severe Health Effects thresholds are 78 and 46 meters, respectively. The highest emergency classification is a Site Area Emergency. The Emergency Planning Zone is 100 meters

  19. Sandia Administrative Micrographics Facility, Building 802: Hazards assessment document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swihart, A.

    1994-12-01

    The Department of Energy Order 5500.3A requires facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the Sandia Administrative Micrographics Facility, Building 802. The entire inventory was screened according to the potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distance at which a postulated facility event will produce consequences exceeding the Early Severe Health Effects threshold is 33 meters. The highest emergency classification is a Site Area Emergency. The Emergency Planning Zone is 75 meters

  20. Glass Formulation and Fabrication Laboratory, Building 864, Hazards assessment document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banda, Z.; Wood, C.L.

    1995-08-01

    The Department of Energy Order 5500.3A requires facility-specific hazards assessments be prepared, maintained, and used for emergency planning purposes. This hazards assessment document describes the chemical and radiological hazards associated with the Glass Formulation and Fabrication Laboratory, Building 864. The entire inventory was screened according to the potential airborne impact to onsite and offsite individuals. The air dispersion model, ALOHA, estimated pollutant concentrations downwind from the source of a release, taking into consideration the toxicological and physical characteristics of the release site, the atmospheric conditions, and the circumstances of the release. The greatest distances at which a postulated facility event will produce consequences exceeding the ERPG-2 threshold is 96 meters. The highest emergency classification is a Site Area Emergency. The Emergency Planning Zone is 100 meters.

  1. Deep-Sea Turbidites as Guides to Holocene Earthquake History at the Cascadia Subduction Zone—Alternative Views for a Seismic-Hazard Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwater, Brian F.; Griggs, Gary B.

    2012-01-01

    This report reviews the geological basis for some recent estimates of earthquake hazards in the Cascadia region between southern British Columbia and northern California. The largest earthquakes to which the region is prone are in the range of magnitude 8-9. The source of these great earthquakes is the fault down which the oceanic Juan de Fuca Plate is being subducted or thrust beneath the North American Plate. Geologic evidence for their occurrence includes sedimentary deposits that have been observed in cores from deep-sea channels and fans. Earthquakes can initiate subaqueous slumps or slides that generate turbidity currents and which produce the sedimentary deposits known as turbidites. The hazard estimates reviewed in this report are derived mainly from deep-sea turbidites that have been interpreted as proxy records of great Cascadia earthquakes. The estimates were first published in 2008. Most of the evidence for them is contained in a monograph now in press. We have reviewed a small part of this evidence, chiefly from Cascadia Channel and its tributaries, all of which head offshore the Pacific coast of Washington State. According to the recent estimates, the Cascadia plate boundary ruptured along its full length in 19 or 20 earthquakes of magnitude 9 in the past 10,000 years; its northern third broke during these giant earthquakes only, and southern segments produced at least 20 additional, lesser earthquakes of Holocene age. The turbidite case for full-length ruptures depends on stratigraphic evidence for simultaneous shaking at the heads of multiple submarine canyons. The simultaneity has been inferred primarily from turbidite counts above a stratigraphic datum, sandy beds likened to strong-motion records, and radiocarbon ages adjusted for turbidity-current erosion. In alternatives proposed here, this turbidite evidence for simultaneous shaking is less sensitive to earthquake size and frequency than previously thought. Turbidites far below a channel

  2. Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S.

    2009-12-01

    A volcanic hazard is any phenomenon that threatens communities . These hazards include volcanic events like pyroclastic flows, explosions, ash fall and lavas, and secondary effects such as lahars and landslides. Volcanic hazards are described by the physical characteristics of the phenomena, by the assessment of the areas that they are likely to affect and by the magnitude-dependent return period of events. Volcanic hazard maps are generated by mapping past volcanic events and by modelling the hazardous processes. Both these methods have their strengths and limitations and a robust map should use both approaches in combination. Past records, studied through stratigraphy, the distribution of deposits and age dating, are typically incomplete and may be biased. Very significant volcanic hazards, such as surge clouds and volcanic blasts, are not well-preserved in the geological record for example. Models of volcanic processes are very useful to help identify hazardous areas that do not have any geological evidence. They are, however, limited by simplifications and incomplete understanding of the physics. Many practical volcanic hazards mapping tools are also very empirical. Hazards maps are typically abstracted into hazards zones maps, which are some times called threat or risk maps. Their aim is to identify areas at high levels of threat and the boundaries between zones may take account of other factors such as roads, escape routes during evacuation, infrastructure. These boundaries may change with time due to new knowledge on the hazards or changes in volcanic activity levels. Alternatively they may remain static but implications of the zones may change as volcanic activity changes. Zone maps are used for planning purposes and for management of volcanic crises. Volcanic hazards maps are depictions of the likelihood of future volcanic phenomena affecting places and people. Volcanic phenomena are naturally variable, often complex and not fully understood. There are

  3. Assessment of health hazards and associated factors among the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    admin

    Amhara National Regional State. Bereket Yonas1, Abera Kumie2. Abstract ... Objective: This study aimed to assess hazards and associated factors among returned migrants living at Bati Woreda,. Amhara National Regional State. ..... and opening other income generating enterprises such as grain mills. Age (> 35years) ...

  4. Seismic hazard assessment for the Caucasus test area

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Balassanian, S.; Ashirov, T.; Chelidze, T.; Gassanov, A.; Kondorskaya, N.; Molchan, G.; Pustovitenko, B.; Trifonov, V.; Ulomov, V.; Giardini, D.; Erdik, M.; Ghafory-Ashtiany, M.; Grunthal, G.; Mayer-Rosa, D.; Schenk, Vladimír; Stucchi, M.

    1999-01-01

    Roč. 42, č. 6 (1999), s. 1139-1151 ISSN 0365-2556 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) - project of the UN International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction and International Litosphere Program. Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure

  5. AECB workshop on seismic hazard assessment in Southern Ontario. Program, list of participants and abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of the workshop was to review available geological and seismological data which could affect earthquake occurrence in southern Ontario and to develop a consensus on approaches that should be adopted for characterization of seismic hazard. The workshop was structured in technical sessions to focus presentations and discussions on four technical issues relevant to seismic hazard in southern Ontario, as follows: (1) The importance of geological and geophysical observations for the determination of seismic sources, (2) Methods and approaches which may be adopted for determining seismic sources based on integrated interpretations of geological and seismological information, (3) Methods and data which should be used for characterizing the seismicity parameters of seismic sources, and (4) Methods for assessment of vibratory ground motion hazard. This document presents a copy of the workshop program, the list of participants and extended abstracts received from speakers. It was distributed to the participants prior to the workshop. The abstracts were intended to provide advance information and to afford some basis for meaningful discussion and exchange of information

  6. Collateral benefits and hidden hazards of soil arsenic during abatement assessment of residential lead hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elless, M.P.; Ferguson, B.W.; Bray, C.A.; Patch, S.; Mielke, H.; Blaylock, M.J.

    2008-01-01

    Abatement of soil-lead hazards may also reduce human exposure to other soil toxins, thereby achieving significant collateral benefits that are not accounted for today. This proposition was tested with the specific case of soil-arsenic, where 1726 residential soil samples were collected and analyzed for lead and arsenic. The study found that these two toxins coexisted in most samples, but their concentrations were weakly correlated, reflecting the differing sources for each toxin. Collateral benefits of 9% would be achieved during abatement of the lead-contaminated soils having elevated arsenic concentrations. However, a hidden hazard of 16% was observed by overlooking elevated arsenic concentrations in soils having lead concentrations not requiring abatement. This study recommends that soil samples collected under HUD programs should be collected from areas of lead and arsenic deposition and tested for arsenic as well as lead, and that soil abatement decisions consider soil-arsenic as well as soil-lead guidelines. - Coexistence of arsenic at elevated concentrations with lead in residential soils undergoing lead hazard assessment is often overlooked, providing either collateral benefits or hidden hazards

  7. LAV@HAZARD: a web-GIS interface for volcanic hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Gallo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Satellite data, radiative power of hot spots as measured with remote sensing, historical records, on site geological surveys, digital elevation model data, and simulation results together provide a massive data source to investigate the behavior of active volcanoes like Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy over recent times. The integration of these heterogeneous data into a coherent visualization framework is important for their practical exploitation. It is crucial to fill in the gap between experimental and numerical data, and the direct human perception of their meaning. Indeed, the people in charge of safety planning of an area need to be able to quickly assess hazards and other relevant issues even during critical situations. With this in mind, we developed LAV@HAZARD, a web-based geographic information system that provides an interface for the collection of all of the products coming from the LAVA project research activities. LAV@HAZARD is based on Google Maps application programming interface, a choice motivated by its ease of use and the user-friendly interactive environment it provides. In particular, the web structure consists of four modules for satellite applications (time-space evolution of hot spots, radiant flux and effusion rate, hazard map visualization, a database of ca. 30,000 lava-flow simulations, and real-time scenario forecasting by MAGFLOW on Compute Unified Device Architecture.

  8. A novel approach for studying submarine faults: the FOCUS project (FOCUS = Fiber Optic Cable Use for Seafloor studies of earthquake hazard and deformation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutscher, M. A.; Royer, J. Y.; Graindorge, D.; Murphy, S.; Klingelhoefer, F.; Cattaneo, A.; Barreca, G.; Quetel, L.; Petersen, F.; Riccobene, G.; Urlaub, M.; Krastel, S.; Gross, F.; Kopp, H.

    2017-12-01

    Two-thirds of the earth's surface is covered by water and thus largely inaccessible to modern networks of seismological instruments. A novel use of fiber optic cables could help improve hazard assessment and increase early warning capability. Laser reflectometry using BOTDR (Brillouin Optical Time Domain Reflectometry), commonly used for structural health monitoring of large-scale engineering structures (e.g. - bridges, dams, pipelines, etc.) can measure very small strains (cable. Two other EMSO test sites with fiber optic cables, the 100 km long Capo Passero (SE Sicily) and the 2 km long cable off Molene Island (W France) will also be studied. Initial reflectometry tests were performed on these three cables using a Febus BOTDR interrogator in June and July 2017. Unexpectedly high dynamic noise levels (corresponding to strains of 200 - 500 mm/m) were observed on the Molene cable, likely due to the high-energy, shallow water, open ocean environment. The tests on the EMSO infrastructure in Sicily indicated low experimental noise levels (20 - 30 mm/m) out to a distance of 15 km. BOTDR observations will have to be calibrated by other independent measurements. Therefore, targeted marine geophysical surveys of the seafloor along the trace of the cable and faults are planned, with the use of seafloor geodetic instruments to quantify fault displacement. Once the BOTDR fault-monitoring technique has been tested, demonstrated and calibrated offshore Eastern Sicily, the goal is to expand it to other fiber optic cable networks, either existing research networks in earthquake hazard zones (Japan, Cascadia) or to the Mediterranean region through access to retired (decommissioned) telecommunication cables or development of dual-use cables (two of the anticipated outcomes of the FOCUS project). This represents a potentially tremendous breakthrough in seismology, tectonics and natural hazard early warning capability.

  9. Distance education course on spatial multi-hazard risk assessment, using Open Source software

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, C. J.; Frigerio, S.

    2009-04-01

    As part of the capacity building activities of the United Nations University - ITC School on Disaster Geo-Information Management (UNU-ITC DGIM) the International Institute for Geoinformation Science and Earth Observation (ITC) has developed a distance education course on the application of Geographic Information Systems for multi-hazard risk assessment. This course is designed for academic staff, as well as for professionals working in (non-) governmental organizations where knowledge of disaster risk management is essential. The course guides the participants through the entire process of risk assessment, on the basis of a case study of a city exposed to multiple hazards, in a developing country. The courses consists of eight modules, each with a guide book explaining the theoretical background, and guiding the participants through spatial data requirements for risk assessment, hazard assessment procedures, generation of elements at risk databases, vulnerability assessment, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods, risk evaluation and risk reduction. Linked to the theory is a large set of exercises, with exercise descriptions, answer sheets, demos and GIS data. The exercises deal with four different types of hazards: earthquakes, flooding, technological hazards, and landslides. One important consideration in designing the course is that people from developing countries should not be restricted in using it due to financial burdens for software acquisition. Therefore the aim was to use Open Source software as a basis. The GIS exercises are written for the ILWIS software. All exercises have also been integrated into a WebGIS, using the Open source software CartoWeb (based on GNU License). It is modular and customizable thanks to its object-oriented architecture and based on a hierarchical structure (to manage and organize every package of information of every step required in risk assessment). Different switches for every component of the risk assessment

  10. Assessment of fire hazards in buildings housing fusion energy experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvares, N.; Lipska, A.

    1978-01-01

    A number of materials in and within the proximity of buildings housing fusion energy experiments (FEE) were analyzed for their potential fire hazard. The materials used in this study were mostly: electrical and thermal insulations. The fire hazard of these materials was assessed in terms of their ease of ignition, heat release rate, generation of smoke, and the effect of thermal environment on the combustion behavior. Several fire protection measures for buildings housing the (FEE) projects are analyzed and as a result of this study are found to be adequate for the near term

  11. Tsunami Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk assessment for the coast of Oman

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan

    2016-04-01

    Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national

  12. The use of Near-surface Geophysics in Evaluating and Assessing Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellerin, L.

    2007-12-01

    The list of natural hazards that transform the physical environmental is extensive: earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, volcanoes, lahars, landslides and debris flows, avalanches, karst/cavern collapse, heavy-metal contamination, permafrost, liquefaction, and magnetic storms. Because these events or conditions can have significant negative impact on health and infrastructure, the need for knowledge about and education of natural hazards is important. Near-surface geophysics can contribute in significant ways to both the knowledge base and wider understanding of these hazards. The discipline encompasses a wide range of methodologies, some of which are described below. A post-tsunami helicopter electromagnetic (EM) survey along the coasts of Aceh, northern Sumatra was used to discriminate between fresh-water and saltwater aquifers., saltwater intrusion occurred close to the coast as a result of the tsunami and deep saltwater occurrences particularly around 30 m depth were mapped up to several kilometers inland. Based on the survey results recommendations were made to locate shallow hand-dug wells and medium depth (60m) water wells. Utilizing airborne EM and magnetic measurements, a detailed assessment of the internal distribution of altered zones within an active volcano; Mount Rainier (NW USA) showed that alteration is much more restricted than had been inferred from surficial exposures alone. The study also suggested that the collapse of fresh, unaltered portions of the volcano is possible, and no flank of the volcano can be considered immune from lahars during eruption. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) has been used worldwide in a variety of applications from geotechnical investigations related to geologic hazards. These include assessment of transportation infrastructure, which maybe be damaged due to a natural hazard, study of the movement of rock glaciers in the Swiss Alps, and search and recovery of avalanche victims. Permafrost is widespread in polar areas and cold

  13. Preparing for Euro 2012: developing a hazard risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Evan G; Razek, Tarek; Luhovy, Artem; Mogilevkina, Irina; Prudnikov, Yuriy; Klimovitskiy, Fedor; Yutovets, Yuriy; Khwaja, Kosar A; Deckelbaum, Dan L

    2015-04-01

    Risk assessment is a vital step in the disaster-preparedness continuum as it is the foundation of subsequent phases, including mitigation, response, and recovery. To develop a risk assessment tool geared specifically towards the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Euro 2012. In partnership with the Donetsk National Medical University, Donetsk Research and Development Institute of Traumatology and Orthopedics, Donetsk Regional Public Health Administration, and the Ministry of Emergency of Ukraine, a table-based tool was created, which, based on historical evidence, identifies relevant potential threats, evaluates their impacts and likelihoods on graded scales based on previous available data, identifies potential mitigating shortcomings, and recommends further mitigation measures. This risk assessment tool has been applied in the vulnerability-assessment-phase of the UEFA Euro 2012. Twenty-three sub-types of potential hazards were identified and analyzed. Ten specific hazards were recognized as likely to very likely to occur, including natural disasters, bombing and blast events, road traffic collisions, and disorderly conduct. Preventative measures, such as increased stadium security and zero tolerance for impaired driving, were recommended. Mitigating factors were suggested, including clear, incident-specific preparedness plans and enhanced inter-agency communication. This hazard risk assessment tool is a simple aid in vulnerability assessment, essential for disaster preparedness and response, and may be applied broadly to future international events.

  14. Strategic crisis and risk communication during a prolonged natural hazard event: lessons learned from the Canterbury earthquake sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, A. M.; Potter, S.; Becker, J.; Doyle, E. E.; Jones, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    While communication products are developed for monitoring and forecasting hazard events, less thought may have been given to crisis and risk communication plans. During larger (and rarer) events responsible science agencies may find themselves facing new and intensified demands for information and unprepared for effectively resourcing communications. In a study of the communication of aftershock information during the 2010-12 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (New Zealand), issues are identified and implications for communication strategy noted. Communication issues during the responses included reliability and timeliness of communication channels for immediate and short decision time frames; access to scientists by those who needed information; unfamiliar emergency management frameworks; information needs of multiple audiences, audience readiness to use the information; and how best to convey empathy during traumatic events and refer to other information sources about what to do and how to cope. Other science communication challenges included meeting an increased demand for earthquake education, getting attention on aftershock forecasts; responding to rumor management; supporting uptake of information by critical infrastructure and government and for the application of scientific information in complex societal decisions; dealing with repetitive information requests; addressing diverse needs of multiple audiences for scientific information; and coordinating communications within and outside the science domain. For a science agency, a communication strategy would consider training scientists in communication, establishing relationships with university scientists and other disaster communication roles, coordinating messages, prioritizing audiences, deliberating forecasts with community leaders, identifying user needs and familiarizing them with the products ahead of time, and practicing the delivery and use of information via scenario planning and exercises.

  15. Building vulnerability and human loss assessment in different earthquake intensity and time: a case study of the University of the Philippines, Los Baños (UPLB) Campus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusydy, I.; Faustino-Eslava, D. V.; Muksin, U.; Gallardo-Zafra, R.; Aguirre, J. J. C.; Bantayan, N. C.; Alam, L.; Dakey, S.

    2017-02-01

    Study on seismic hazard, building vulnerability and human loss assessment become substantial for building education institutions since the building are used by a lot of students, lecturers, researchers, and guests. The University of the Philippines, Los Banos (UPLB) located in an earthquake prone area. The earthquake could cause structural damage and injury of the UPLB community. We have conducted earthquake assessment in different magnitude and time to predict the posibility of ground shaking, building vulnerability and estimated the number of casualty of the UPLB community. The data preparation in this study includes the earthquake scenario modeling using Intensity Prediction Equations (IPEs) for shallow crustal shaking attenuation to produce intensity map of bedrock and surface. Earthquake model was generated from the segment IV and the segment X of the Valley Fault System (VFS). Building vulnerability of different type of building was calculated using fragility curve of the Philippines building. The population data for each building in various occupancy time, damage ratio, and injury ratio data were used to compute the number of casualties. The result reveals that earthquake model from the segment IV and the segment X of the VFS could generate earthquake intensity between 7.6 - 8.1 MMI in the UPLB campus. The 7.7 Mw earthquake (scenario I) from the segment IV could cause 32% - 51% damage of building and 6.5 Mw earthquake (scenario II) occurring in the segment X could cause 18% - 39% structural damage of UPLB buildings. If the earthquake occurs at 2 PM (day-time), it could injure 10.2% - 18.8% for the scenario I and could injure 7.2% - 15.6% of UPLB population in scenario II. The 5 Pm event, predicted will injure 5.1%-9.4% in the scenario I, and 3.6%-7.8% in scenario II. A nighttime event (2 Am) cause injury to students and guests who stay in dormitories. The earthquake is predicted to injure 13 - 66 students and guests in the scenario I and 9 - 47 people in the

  16. Flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment for human life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, T.; Chang, T.; Lai, J.; Hsieh, M.; Tan, Y.; Lin, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Flood risk assessment is an important issue for the countries suffering tropical cyclones and monsoon. Taiwan is located in the hot zone of typhoon tracks in the Western Pacific. There are three to five typhoons landing Taiwan every year. Typhoons and heavy rainfalls often cause inundation disaster rising with the increase of population and the development of social economy. The purpose of this study is to carry out the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life. Based on the concept that flood risk is composed by flood hazard and vulnerability, a inundation simulation is performed to evaluate the factors of flood hazard for human life according to base flood (100-year return period). The flood depth, velocity and rising ratio are the three factors of flood hazards. Furthermore, the factors of flood vulnerability are identified in terms of human life that are classified into two main factors, residents and environment. The sub factors related to residents are the density of population and the density of vulnerable people including elders, youngers and disabled persons. The sub factors related to environment include the the number of building floors, the locations of buildings, the and distance to rescue center. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted to determine the weights of these factors. The risk matrix is applied to show the risk from low to high based on the evaluation of flood hazards and vulnerabilities. The Tseng-Wen River watershed is selected as the case study because a serious flood was induced by Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2.361mm in 48 hours in the last 50 years. The results of assessing the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life could improve the emergency operation for flood disaster to prepare enough relief goods and materials during typhoon landing.

  17. Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Larreynaga, J.; González, M.; Castro, M.; Gavidia, F.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; González-Riancho, P.; Carreño, E.

    2013-11-01

    El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America; its coast has an approximate length of 320 km, 29 municipalities and more than 700 000 inhabitants. In El Salvador there were 15 recorded tsunamis between 1859 and 2012, 3 of them causing damages and resulting in hundreds of victims. Hazard assessment is commonly based on propagation numerical models for earthquake-generated tsunamis and can be approached through both probabilistic and deterministic methods. A deterministic approximation has been applied in this study as it provides essential information for coastal planning and management. The objective of the research was twofold: on the one hand the characterization of the threat over the entire coast of El Salvador, and on the other the computation of flooding maps for the three main localities of the Salvadorian coast. For the latter we developed high-resolution flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps, and from the elevation in the near shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using empirical relations. We have considered local sources located in the Middle America Trench, characterized seismotectonically, and distant sources in the rest of Pacific Basin, using historical and recent earthquakes and tsunamis. We used a hybrid finite differences-finite volumes numerical model in this work, based on the linear and non-linear shallow water equations, to simulate a total of 24 earthquake-generated tsunami scenarios. Our results show that at the western Salvadorian coast, run-up values higher than 5 m are common, while in the eastern area, approximately from La Libertad to the Gulf of Fonseca, the run-up values are lower. The more exposed areas to flooding are the lowlands in the Lempa River delta and the Barra de Santiago Western Plains. The results of the empirical approximation used for the whole country are similar to the results

  18. Seismic hazard assessment of Chennai city considering local site ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Chennai city suffered moderate tremors during the 2001 Bhuj and Pondicherry earthquakes and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. After the Bhuj earthquake, Indian Standard IS: 1893 was revised and Chennai city was upgraded from zone II to zone III which leads to a substantial increase of the design ground motion ...

  19. Implosion, earthquake, and explosion recordings from the 2000 Seattle Kingdome Seismic Hazards Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS), Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocher, Thomas M.; Pratt, Thomas L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Snelson, Catherine M.; Frankel, Arthur D.

    2002-01-01

    This report describes seismic data obtained in Seattle, Washington, March 24-28, 2000, during a Seismic Hazards Investigation of Puget Sound (SHIPS). The seismic recordings obtained by this SHIPS experiment, nicknamed Kingdome SHIPS, were designed to (1) measure site responses throughout Seattle and to (2) help define the location of the Seattle fault. During Kingdome SHIPS, we recorded the Kingdome implosion, four 150-lb (68-kg) shots, and a Mw = 7.6 teleseism using a dense network of seismographs deployed throughout Seattle. The seismographs were deployed at a nominal spacing of 1 km in a hexagonal grid extending from Green Lake in the north to Boeing Field in the south. The Seattle Kingdome was a domed sports stadium located in downtown Seattle near the Seattle fault. The Seattle Kingdome was imploded (demolished) at 8:32 AM local time (16:32 UTC) on March 26 (JD 086), 2000. The seismic energy produced by implosion of the Kingdome was equivalent to a local earthquake magnitude of 2.3. Strong impacts produced by the implosion of the Kingdome generated seismic arrivals to frequencies as low as 0.1 Hz. Two shots located north of the Seattle fault, where the charges were detonated within the ground water column (Discovery and Magnuson Parks), were much more strongly coupled than were the two shots to the south of the Seattle fault, where the shots were detonated above the water table (Lincoln and Seward Parks). Thirty-eight RefTek stations, scattered throughout Seattle, recorded the Mw = 7.6 Japan Volcano Islands earthquake (22.4°N, 143.6°E, 104 km depth) of 28 March 2000 (JD 088). This teleseism produced useful signals for periods between 4 and 7 seconds. Only a few recordings of small magnitude local earthquakes were made, and these recordings are not presented. In this report, we describe the acquisition of these data, discuss the processing and merging of the data into common shot gathers, and illustrate the acquired data. We also describe the format and

  20. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT ON ELECTRIC POWER FAILURES DURING THE 2011 OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF TOHOKU EARTHQUAKE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoji, Gaku; Takahashi, Dai; Tsukiji, Takuya; Naba, Satoshi

    Damage on electric power failures at Ibaraki, Tochigi, Chiba, Saitama and Kanagawa prefectures and Tokyo Metropolitan government during the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake is analyzed. We collect the related data by surveying the information in web sites, and interviewing to the local government sectors and TEPCO branch office sectors by phone investigation. We quantify a damage ratio defined by the ratio of number of electric power failures with number of the related households, and the dependency of the index on induced seismic hazards due to the earthquake is revealed for subject cities.

  1. New characteristics of intensity assessment of Sichuan Lushan "4.20" M s7.0 earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Baitao; Yan, Peilei; Chen, Xiangzhao

    2014-08-01

    The post-earthquake rapid accurate assessment of macro influence of seismic ground motion is of significance for earthquake emergency relief, post-earthquake reconstruction and scientific research. The seismic intensity distribution map released by the Lushan earthquake