WorldWideScience

Sample records for earthquake arrival times

  1. Seismicity and arrival-time residuals from the Victoria Earthquake of June 9, 1980

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wong, V.; Frez, J.

    1981-01-01

    Hypocenter distribution in space and time of the aftershock activity from the Victoria Earthquake of June 9, 1980 was studied. It was concluded that the main event excited aftershocks in several pre-existing nests at the northwest end of the Cerro Prieto Fault, but no significant activity occurred at the immediate neighborhood of the main event. The depth of the aftershocks increases with the distance from the northwest end of the fault and this feature might be related with the higher temperatures and the spreading center located between the ends of the Imperial and Cerro Prieto Faults. The significance of the arrival-times residuals for local and regional stations is discussed both for P and S-waves and the importance of obtaining station corrections is emphasized. The non-uniqueness in determining a structure which minimizes the residuals is illustrated. Two different structures which satisfy the local data are presented.

  2. Fault zone structure determined through the analysis of earthquake arrival times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michelini, A.

    1991-10-01

    This thesis develops and applies a technique for the simultaneous determination of P and S wave velocity models and hypocenters from a set of arrival times. The velocity models are parameterized in terms of cubic B-splines basis functions which permit the retrieval of smooth models that can be used directly for generation of synthetic seismograms using the ray method. In addition, this type of smoothing limits the rise of instabilities related to the poor resolving power of the data. V{sub P}/V{sub S} ratios calculated from P and S models display generally instabilities related to the different ray-coverages of compressional and shear waves. However, V{sub P}/V{sub S} ratios are important for correct identification of rock types and this study introduces a new methodology based on adding some coupling (i.e., proportionality) between P and S models which stabilizes the V{sub P}/V{sub S} models around some average preset value determined from the data. Tests of the technique with synthetic data show that this additional coupling regularizes effectively the resulting models.

  3. Fault zone structure determined through the analysis of earthquake arrival times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michelini, Alberto [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    1991-10-01

    This thesis develops and applies a technique for the simultaneous determination of P and S wave velocity models and hypocenters from a set of arrival times. The velocity models are parameterized in terms of cubic B-splines basis functions which permit the retrieval of smooth models that can be used directly for generation of synthetic seismograms using the ray method. In addition, this type of smoothing limits the rise of instabilities related to the poor resolving power of the data. VP/VS ratios calculated from P and S models display generally instabilities related to the different ray-coverages of compressional and shear waves. However, VP/VS ratios are important for correct identification of rock types and this study introduces a new methodology based on adding some coupling (i.e., proportionality) between P and S models which stabilizes the VP/VS models around some average preset value determined from the data. Tests of the technique with synthetic data show that this additional coupling regularizes effectively the resulting models.

  4. Real Time Earthquake Information System in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doi, K.; Kato, T.

    2003-12-01

    An early earthquake notification system in Japan had been developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a governmental organization responsible for issuing earthquake information and tsunami forecasts. The system was primarily developed for prompt provision of a tsunami forecast to the public with locating an earthquake and estimating its magnitude as quickly as possible. Years after, a system for a prompt provision of seismic intensity information as indices of degrees of disasters caused by strong ground motion was also developed so that concerned governmental organizations can decide whether it was necessary for them to launch emergency response or not. At present, JMA issues the following kinds of information successively when a large earthquake occurs. 1) Prompt report of occurrence of a large earthquake and major seismic intensities caused by the earthquake in about two minutes after the earthquake occurrence. 2) Tsunami forecast in around three minutes. 3) Information on expected arrival times and maximum heights of tsunami waves in around five minutes. 4) Information on a hypocenter and a magnitude of the earthquake, the seismic intensity at each observation station, the times of high tides in addition to the expected tsunami arrival times in 5-7 minutes. To issue information above, JMA has established; - An advanced nationwide seismic network with about 180 stations for seismic wave observation and about 3,400 stations for instrumental seismic intensity observation including about 2,800 seismic intensity stations maintained by local governments, - Data telemetry networks via landlines and partly via a satellite communication link, - Real-time data processing techniques, for example, the automatic calculation of earthquake location and magnitude, the database driven method for quantitative tsunami estimation, and - Dissemination networks, via computer-to-computer communications and facsimile through dedicated telephone lines. JMA operationally

  5. Hospital arrival time after onset of stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, R; Woo, J; Poon, W S

    1992-01-01

    To estimate the proportion of patients with stroke likely to be eligible for a trial of anticoagulant treatment for acute ischaemic stroke, the interval between onset of symptoms and arrival at hospital was analysed prospectively. Of 773 patients with stroke admitted in one year, 63% arrived at hospital within 12 hours, 76% within 24 hours, and 85% within 48 hours of ictus. The arrival time varied significantly with stroke subtype. Patients with intracerebral haemorrhage tended to arrive earlier than those with cerebral infarct, who arrived sooner than those with lacunar infarct. The results suggest that about half of all patients with ischaemic stroke in Hong Kong would present within 12 hours of ictus, in time for inclusion in a therapeutic trial. PMID:1431964

  6. Automatic determination of seismic phase arrival times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, T. S.; Kim, M.; Rhie, J.

    2016-12-01

    Determination of P- and S-wave phase arrival times is significant factors in microseismic detection and thus hypocenter source inversion. If analysts try to pick P- and S-wave phase arrival times of microseismic events manually, they are at risk for inconsistency in picking due to subjective determination of P- and S-wave phase arrival times among them and get to spend too much time in doing the job. This study presents a method for the automatic detection of event and determination of arrival times of seismic phases. An implementation of the method is consisting of five steps. The first is the initial declaration of an event in continuous seismic data using a characteristic function which is also designed specifically in this study. The second is the automatic determination of P-wave phase arrival time using the normalized squared-envelope function. The third is the application of three-axis rotation using an energy ratio among three-component seismograms of the event. The fourth is the automatic determination of S-wave phase arrival time. The final step is the removal of falsely determined time in some records using the Wadati diagram which plots S-P times against P-wave phase arrival times over stations used in the picking stage. Application of the method to the continuous waveform data from a temporary broadband seismograph network consisting of 20 stations distributed in Jeju Island shows that the automatic event detection and determination of phase arrival times are carried out with accuracy.

  7. Estimation of pulse heights and arrival times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwakernaak, H.

    1980-01-01

    The problem is studied of estimating the arrival times and heights of pulses of known shape observed with white additive noise. The main difficulty is estimating the number of pulses. When a maximum likelihood formulation is employed for the estimation problem, difficulties similar to the problem of

  8. Scheduling jobs that arrive over time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, C. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stein, C. [Dartmouth Coll., Hanover, NH (United States); Wein, J. [Polytechnic Univ., Brooklyn, NY (United States). Dept. of Computer Science

    1995-04-06

    A natural and basic problem in scheduling theory is to provide good average quality of service to a stream of jobs that arrive over time. In this paper we consider the problem of scheduling n jobs that are released over time in order to minimize the average completion time of the set of jobs. In contrast to the problem of minimizing average completion time when all jobs are available at time 0, all the problems that we consider are NP-hard, and essentially nothing was known about constructing good approximations in polynomial time. We give the first constant-factor approximation algorithms for several variants of the single and parallel machine model. Many of the algorithms are based on interesting algorithmic and structural relationships between preemptive and nonpreemptive schedules and linear programming relaxations of both. Many of the algorithms generalize to the minimization of average weighted completion time as well.

  9. True Time API Link (real time arrival info)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Allegheny County / City of Pittsburgh / Western PA Regional Data Center — This link will take you to the site where you can create an account to access Port Authority's real time arrival information. To request access to Port Authority's...

  10. Pulse arrival time measurement with coffee provocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmaniemi, Teemu; Rajala, Satu; Lindholm, Harri; Taipalus, Tapio

    2017-07-01

    This study investigated the effect of coffee intake in pulse arrival time (PAT) and pulse wave velocity (PWV) measured with electrocardiogram (ECG) from arms and photoplethysmogram (PPG) from fingertip. In addition, correlation of PWV with blood pressure (BP) is analyzed. 30 healthy participants were recruited to two measurement sessions, one arranged before and another one after the coffee intake. During each session, ECG and PPG were measured continuously for six minutes and PAT values calculated from ECG R-peak to the maximum of the first derivative of the PPG pulse. In addition, blood pressure was measured twice during each session with cuff based method. Coffee intake had statistically significant influence on both systolic and diastolic blood pressure, but not on PAT or PWV. Correlation between systolic blood pressure and PWV was 0.44. Individual calibration, additional derivatives of ECG and PPG such as heart rate, pulse pressure, or waveform characteristics could improve the correlation.

  11. Excessive maps, "arrival times" and perturbation of dynamical semigroups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holevo, A. S.

    1995-12-01

    The notion of excessive map for dynamical semigroup is introduced, and it is shown that an excessive map defines an operation-valued measure describing the measurement of an "arrival time" related to the irreversible dynamics described by the semigroup. Any such arrival time determines a positive perturbation of the dynamical semigroup describing the dynamics after "arrivals". Generators of the relevant perturbations are characterized, and several examples, both commutative and a non-commutative, are discussed, elucidating the problem of standard representation.

  12. Quantum arrival-time distributions from intensity functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wlodarz, Joachim

    2002-01-01

    The quantum time-of-arrival problem is discussed within the standard formulation of nonrelativistic quantum mechanics with parametric time. It is shown that a general class of arrival-time probability distributions results from the assumption that the arrival process of a quantum particle...... is similar in nature to other time-dependent arrival-type processes occurring, e.g., in population biology or queue theory. A simple but illustrative example related to the well-known Wigner discussion of the time-energy uncertainty relation is given and the numerical results obtained are compared...... with Kijowski's distribution [Rep. Math. Phys. 6, 362 (1974)] of arrival times for a free quantum particle....

  13. Estimated time of arrival and debiasing the time saving bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, Gabriella; Patten, Christopher J D; Svenson, Ola; Eriksson, Lars

    2015-01-01

    The time saving bias predicts that the time saved when increasing speed from a high speed is overestimated, and underestimated when increasing speed from a slow speed. In a questionnaire, time saving judgements were investigated when information of estimated time to arrival was provided. In an active driving task, an alternative meter indicating the inverted speed was used to debias judgements. The simulated task was to first drive a distance at a given speed, and then drive the same distance again at the speed the driver judged was required to gain exactly 3 min in travel time compared with the first drive. A control group performed the same task with a speedometer and saved less than the targeted 3 min when increasing speed from a high speed, and more than 3 min when increasing from a low speed. Participants in the alternative meter condition were closer to the target. The two studies corroborate a time saving bias and show that biased intuitive judgements can be debiased by displaying the inverted speed. Practitioner Summary: Previous studies have shown a cognitive bias in judgements of the time saved by increasing speed. This simulator study aims to improve driver judgements by introducing a speedometer indicating the inverted speed in active driving. The results show that the bias can be reduced by presenting the inverted speed and this finding can be used when designing in-car information systems.

  14. Managing customer arrivals with time windows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Gang; Jiang, Liping

    2016-01-01

    in a terminal system, and second develop an optimization model for scaling time windows with three alternative strategies: namely fixed ending-point strategy (FEP), variable end-point strategy and greedy algorithm strategy. Third, to compare the strategies in terms of effectiveness, numerical experiments...

  15. Method and device for signal time of arrival determination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bellusci, G.; Janssen, G.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    A method for determining a time-of-arrival of an input signal, includes receiving the input signal; generating a first time dependent signal with a first time dependence from the received 5 input signal; generating a second time dependent signal with a second time dependence from the received input

  16. Shear wave arrival time estimates correlate with local speckle pattern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcaleavey, Stephen A; Osapoetra, Laurentius O; Langdon, Jonathan

    2015-12-01

    We present simulation and phantom studies demonstrating a strong correlation between errors in shear wave arrival time estimates and the lateral position of the local speckle pattern in targets with fully developed speckle. We hypothesize that the observed arrival time variations are largely due to the underlying speckle pattern, and call the effect speckle bias. Arrival time estimation is a key step in quantitative shear wave elastography, performed by tracking tissue motion via cross-correlation of RF ultrasound echoes or similar methods. Variations in scatterer strength and interference of echoes from scatterers within the tracking beam result in an echo that does not necessarily describe the average motion within the beam, but one favoring areas of constructive interference and strong scattering. A swept-receive image, formed by fixing the transmit beam and sweeping the receive aperture over the region of interest, is used to estimate the local speckle pattern. Metrics for the lateral position of the speckle are found to correlate strongly (r > 0.7) with the estimated shear wave arrival times both in simulations and in phantoms. Lateral weighting of the swept-receive pattern improved the correlation between arrival time estimates and speckle position. The simulations indicate that high RF echo correlation does not equate to an accurate shear wave arrival time estimate-a high correlation coefficient indicates that motion is being tracked with high precision, but the location tracked is uncertain within the tracking beam width. The presence of a strong on-axis speckle is seen to imply high RF correlation and low bias. The converse does not appear to be true-highly correlated RF echoes can still produce biased arrival time estimates. The shear wave arrival time bias is relatively stable with variations in shear wave amplitude and sign (-20 μm to 20 μm simulated) compared with the variation with different speckle realizations obtained along a given tracking

  17. Spectral information for detection of acoustic time to arrival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gordon, Michael S.; Russo, Frank A.; MacDonald, Ewen

    2013-01-01

    , listeners tended to underestimate the arrival time of the approaching sound source. In naturally occurring and independently manipulated amplification curves, bands with center frequencies between 120 and 250 Hz caused the least underestimation, and bands with center frequencies between 2000 and 7500 Hz......The exponential increase of intensity for an approaching sound source provides salient information for a listener to make judgments of time to arrival (TTA). Specifically, a listener will experience a greater rate of increasing intensity for higher than for lower frequencies during a sound source......’s approach. To examine the relative importance of this spectral information, listeners were asked to make judgments about the arrival times of nine 1-octave-band sound sources (the bands were consecutive, nonoverlapping single octaves, ranging from 40–80 Hz to ~10–20 kHz). As is typical in TTA tasks...

  18. Batch arrival discrete time queue with gated vacation system ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A class of single server vacation queues, which have batch arrivals and single server, is considered in discrete time. Here the server goes on vacation of random length as soon as the system becomes empty. On return from vacation, if he finds any customers waiting in the queue, the server starts serving the customers one ...

  19. Estimating epidemic arrival times using linear spreading theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lawrence M.; Holzer, Matt; Shapiro, Anne

    2018-01-01

    We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is composed of a system of ordinary differential equations describing a meta-population susceptible-infected-recovered compartmental model defined on a network where each node represents a city and the edges represent the flight paths connecting cities. Making use of the linear determinacy of the system, we consider spreading speeds and arrival times in the system linearized about the unstable disease free state and compare these to arrival times in the nonlinear system. Two predictions are presented. The first is based upon expansion of the heat kernel for the linearized system. The second assumes that the dominant transmission pathway between any two cities can be approximated by a one dimensional lattice or a homogeneous tree and gives a uniform prediction for arrival times independent of the specific network features. We test these predictions on a real network describing worldwide airline traffic.

  20. Sistem Deteksi Petir Multistation Dengan Metode Time of Arrival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dasrinal Tessal

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This study was done at ligtning detection system in Padang. The systems was consist of 3 electric field sensors with synchronous satelite GPS. Time of arrival and sensors coordinate was taken from each sensors. This data was used to calculate ligtning location by Time of Arrival Linear Spherical method. Then the distances between lighting and sensor can be calculated. The distances will compared with electric field waveforms recorded at lightning sensor to testing validity our results. After validity, lightning current peak can be calculated. 8 of 20 data sample are valid with lowest lightning current peak is -1,001 kA dan highest value is -2,661 kA.

  1. Earthquake Education in Prime Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Groot, R.; Abbott, P.; Benthien, M.

    2004-12-01

    Since 2001, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has collaborated on several video production projects that feature important topics related to earthquake science, engineering, and preparedness. These projects have also fostered many fruitful and sustained partnerships with a variety of organizations that have a stake in hazard education and preparedness. The Seismic Sleuths educational video first appeared in the spring season 2001 on Discovery Channel's Assignment Discovery. Seismic Sleuths is based on a highly successful curriculum package developed jointly by the American Geophysical Union and The Department of Homeland Security Federal Emergency Management Agency. The California Earthquake Authority (CEA) and the Institute for Business and Home Safety supported the video project. Summer Productions, a company with a reputation for quality science programming, produced the Seismic Sleuths program in close partnership with scientists, engineers, and preparedness experts. The program has aired on the National Geographic Channel as recently as Fall 2004. Currently, SCEC is collaborating with Pat Abbott, a geology professor at San Diego State University (SDSU) on the video project Written In Stone: Earthquake Country - Los Angeles. Partners on this project include the California Seismic Safety Commission, SDSU, SCEC, CEA, and the Insurance Information Network of California. This video incorporates live-action demonstrations, vivid animations, and a compelling host (Abbott) to tell the story about earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The Written in Stone team has also developed a comprehensive educator package that includes the video, maps, lesson plans, and other supporting materials. We will present the process that facilitates the creation of visually effective, factually accurate, and entertaining video programs. We acknowledge the need to have a broad understanding of the literature related to communication, media studies, science education, and

  2. MOHO ORIENTATION BENEATH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM REGIONAL EARTHQUAKE TRAVEL TIMES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, David H.; Eaton, Jerry P.

    1984-01-01

    This paper examines relative Pn arrival times, recorded by the U. S. Geological Survey seismic network in central and northern California from an azimuthally distributed set of regional earthquakes. Improved estimates are presented of upper mantle velocities in the Coast Ranges, Great Valley, and Sierra Nevada foothills and estimates of the orientation of the Moho throughout this region. Finally, the azimuthal distribution of apparent velocities, corrected for dip and individual station travel time effects, is then studied for evidence of upper mantle velocity anisotropy and for indications of lower crustal structure in central California.

  3. A Bayesian Approach to Real-Time Earthquake Phase Association

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benz, H.; Johnson, C. E.; Earle, P. S.; Patton, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    Real-time location of seismic events requires a robust and extremely efficient means of associating and identifying seismic phases with hypothetical sources. An association algorithm converts a series of phase arrival times into a catalog of earthquake hypocenters. The classical approach based on time-space stacking of the locus of possible hypocenters for each phase arrival using the principal of acoustic reciprocity has been in use now for many years. One of the most significant problems that has emerged over time with this approach is related to the extreme variations in seismic station density throughout the global seismic network. To address this problem we have developed a novel, Bayesian association algorithm, which looks at the association problem as a dynamically evolving complex system of "many to many relationships". While the end result must be an array of one to many relations (one earthquake, many phases), during the association process the situation is quite different. Both the evolving possible hypocenters and the relationships between phases and all nascent hypocenters is many to many (many earthquakes, many phases). The computational framework we are using to address this is a responsive, NoSQL graph database where the earthquake-phase associations are represented as intersecting Bayesian Learning Networks. The approach directly addresses the network inhomogeneity issue while at the same time allowing the inclusion of other kinds of data (e.g., seismic beams, station noise characteristics, priors on estimated location of the seismic source) by representing the locus of intersecting hypothetical loci for a given datum as joint probability density functions.

  4. Refraction Static Correction without Picking First Arrival Times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Ying Wang

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A concept of differential delay time is proposed for refraction static correction without picking first arrival times in the CDP reflection data processing. This new method is a modification of the ABCD method; it uses cross-correlation to measure the first arrival time difference between signals received at stations B and C, instead of directly computing them from their picked times. By taking advantage of multiple-fold CDP data, we apply the "line-up trace" measurement of cross-correlations, which may alleviate the effect of data imperfections. The problem of refractor velocity variation has also been solved to a certain extent, which allows for a reliable delay time to be adequately estimated for each station and consequently the static correction value. A synthetic model and a real case with a severe weathered layer problem have been tested to evaluate the method. Stable and man age able computation processes have been explored to attain the maximum performance. The results are quite satisfactory. It should be possible to apply this method in rough areas with complicated refraction static problem, even in 3D cases.

  5. Time of arrival based location estimation for cooperative relay networks

    KAUST Repository

    Çelebi, Hasari Burak

    2010-09-01

    In this paper, we investigate the performance of a cooperative relay network performing location estimation through time of arrival (TOA). We derive Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) for the location estimates using the relay network. The analysis is extended to obtain average CRLB considering the signal fluctuations in both relay and direct links. The effects of the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of the relay node on average CRLB are investigated. Simulation results show that the channel fading of both relay and direct links and amplification factor and location of relay node affect the accuracy of TOA based location estimation. ©2010 IEEE.

  6. Exploring Earthquakes in Real-Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, T. K.; Kafka, A. L.; Coleman, B.; Taber, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquakes capture the attention of students and inspire them to explore the Earth. Adding the ability to view and explore recordings of significant and newsworthy earthquakes in real-time makes the subject even more compelling. To address this opportunity, the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), in collaboration with Moravian College, developed ';jAmaSeis', a cross-platform application that enables students to access real-time earthquake waveform data. Students can watch as the seismic waves are recorded on their computer, and can be among the first to analyze the data from an earthquake. jAmaSeis facilitates student centered investigations of seismological concepts using either a low-cost educational seismograph or streamed data from other educational seismographs or from any seismic station that sends data to the IRIS Data Management System. After an earthquake, students can analyze the seismograms to determine characteristics of earthquakes such as time of occurrence, distance from the epicenter to the station, magnitude, and location. The software has been designed to provide graphical clues to guide students in the analysis and assist in their interpretations. Since jAmaSeis can simultaneously record up to three stations from anywhere on the planet, there are numerous opportunities for student driven investigations. For example, students can explore differences in the seismograms from different distances from an earthquake and compare waveforms from different azimuthal directions. Students can simultaneously monitor seismicity at a tectonic plate boundary and in the middle of the plate regardless of their school location. This can help students discover for themselves the ideas underlying seismic wave propagation, regional earthquake hazards, magnitude-frequency relationships, and the details of plate tectonics. The real-time nature of the data keeps the investigations dynamic, and offers students countless opportunities to explore.

  7. Measuring the arrival times of overlapped photo-events

    CERN Document Server

    Stoyanov, D V; Kolarov, G V

    2000-01-01

    We have developed and tested experimentally and by computer simulations a novel method for measuring the individual arrival times of temporally non-resolved (overlapped) single-photon detector pulses in high-intensity streams. The method is based on a set of linear transformations of photo-event pulses into a deconvolution, a transformation to standardized functions, a non-linear Chi-square fitting, etc. The retrieving accuracy varies within the range of 2-4 ns at an ADC sampling interval of 50 ns. The simultaneous measurement without dead time effects of the main photon statistics distributions as the distribution of intraevent intervals and the charge distributions has been demonstrated. The method covers the intermediate scale of intensities, where other well-known techniques for processing of photo-events are ineffective. It can be effectively applied in nuclear experiments, time-resolved spectroscopy, optical remote sensing, etc.

  8. Psychophysics: how fielders arrive in time to catch the ball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLeod, Peter; Reed, Nick; Dienes, Zoltan

    2003-11-20

    Tracking an object moving in three dimensions, whether as an insect pursuing a mate on the wing or as a batsman aiming to hit an approaching ball, provides the spatial and temporal information needed to intercept it. Here we show how fielders use such tracking signals to arrive at the right place in time to catch a ball - they run so that their angle of gaze elevation to the ball increases at a decreasing rate while their horizontal gaze angle to the ball increases at a constant rate (unless the distance to be run is small). Allowing the horizontal angle to increase minimizes the acceleration that the fielder must achieve to reach the interception point at the same time as the ball.

  9. Contributed Review: Source-localization algorithms and applications using time of arrival and time difference of arrival measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Xinya [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99352, USA; Deng, Zhiqun Daniel [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99352, USA; Rauchenstein, Lynn T. [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99352, USA; Carlson, Thomas J. [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99352, USA

    2016-04-01

    Locating the position of fixed or mobile sources (i.e., transmitters) based on received measurements from sensors is an important research area that is attracting much research interest. In this paper, we present localization algorithms using time of arrivals (TOA) and time difference of arrivals (TDOA) to achieve high accuracy under line-of-sight conditions. The circular (TOA) and hyperbolic (TDOA) location systems both use nonlinear equations that relate the locations of the sensors and tracked objects. These nonlinear equations can develop accuracy challenges because of the existence of measurement errors and efficiency challenges that lead to high computational burdens. Least squares-based and maximum likelihood-based algorithms have become the most popular categories of location estimators. We also summarize the advantages and disadvantages of various positioning algorithms. By improving measurement techniques and localization algorithms, localization applications can be extended into the signal-processing-related domains of radar, sonar, the Global Positioning System, wireless sensor networks, underwater animal tracking, mobile communications, and multimedia.

  10. Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang beibei Ji

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an effective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction models are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

  11. Reconstruction of stochastic temporal networks through diffusive arrival times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xun; Li, Xiang

    2017-01-01

    Temporal networks have opened a new dimension in defining and quantification of complex interacting systems. Our ability to identify and reproduce time-resolved interaction patterns is, however, limited by the restricted access to empirical individual-level data. Here we propose an inverse modelling method based on first-arrival observations of the diffusion process taking place on temporal networks. We describe an efficient coordinate-ascent implementation for inferring stochastic temporal networks that builds in particular but not exclusively on the null model assumption of mutually independent interaction sequences at the dyadic level. The results of benchmark tests applied on both synthesized and empirical network data sets confirm the validity of our algorithm, showing the feasibility of statistically accurate inference of temporal networks only from moderate-sized samples of diffusion cascades. Our approach provides an effective and flexible scheme for the temporally augmented inverse problems of network reconstruction and has potential in a broad variety of applications. PMID:28604687

  12. Global teleseismic earthquake relocation from improved travel times and procedures for depth determination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engdahl, E.R.; Hilst, R.D. van der; Buland, Raymond

    We relocate nearly 100,000 events that occurred during the period 1964 to 1995 and are well-constrained teleseismically by arrival-time data reported to the International Seismological Centre (ISC) and to the U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC). Hypocenter

  13. Bolus arrival time and cerebral blood flow responses to hypercarbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donahue, Manus J; Faraco, Carlos C; Strother, Megan K; Chappell, Michael A; Rane, Swati; Dethrage, Lindsey M; Hendrikse, Jeroen; Siero, Jeroen C W

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate how cerebral blood flow and bolus arrival time (BAT) measures derived from arterial spin labeling (ASL) MRI data change for different hypercarbic gas stimuli. Pseudocontinuous ASL (pCASL) was applied (3.0T; spatial resolution=4 × 4 × 7 mm(3); repetition time/echo time (TR/TE)=3,600/11 ms) sequentially in healthy volunteers (n=12; age=30±4 years) for separate experiments in which (i) normocarbic normoxia (i.e., room air), hypercarbic normoxia (i.e., 5% CO₂/21% O₂/74% N2), and hypercarbic hyperoxia (i.e., carbogen: 5% CO₂/95% O₂) gas was administered (12 L/minute). Cerebral blood flow and BAT changes were quantified using models that account for macrovascular signal and partial volume effects in all gray matter and regionally in cerebellar, temporal, occipital, frontal, and parietal lobes. Regional reductions in BAT of 4.6% to 7.7% and 3.3% to 6.6% were found in response to hypercarbic normoxia and hypercarbic hyperoxia, respectively. Cerebral blood flow increased by 8.2% to 27.8% and 3.5% to 19.8% for hypercarbic normoxia and hypercarbic hyperoxia, respectively. These findings indicate that changes in BAT values may bias functional ASL data and thus should be considered when choosing appropriate experimental parameters in calibrated functional magnetic resonance imaging or ASL cerebrovascular reactivity experiments that use hypercarbic gas stimuli.

  14. A particle filtering approach for spatial arrival time tracking in ocean acoustics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, Rashi; Michalopoulou, Zoi-Heleni

    2011-06-01

    The focus of this work is on arrival time and amplitude estimation from acoustic signals recorded at spatially separated hydrophones in the ocean. A particle filtering approach is developed that treats arrival times as "targets" and tracks their "location" across receivers, also modeling arrival time gradient. The method is evaluated via Monte Carlo simulations and is compared to a maximum likelihood estimator, which does not relate arrivals at neighboring receivers. The comparison demonstrates a significant advantage in using the particle filter. It is also shown that posterior probability density functions of times and amplitudes become readily available with particle filtering. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

  15. Weak measurement of the arrival times of single photons and pairs of entangled photons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahnert, S. E.; Payne, M. C.

    2004-04-01

    In this paper we propose a setup for the weak measurement of photon arrival time. It is found that the weak values of this arrival time can lie far away from the expectation value, and in principle also in regions forbidden by special relativity. We discuss in brief the implications of these results as well as their reconciliation with the principle of causality. Furthermore, an analysis of the weak arrival times of a pair of photons in a Bell state shows that these weak arrival times are correlated.

  16. Timing the Random and Anomalous Arrival of Particles in a Geiger Counter with GPS Devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, F.; La Rocca, P.; Riggi, F.; Riggi, S.

    2008-01-01

    The properties of the arrival time distribution of particles in a detector have been studied by the use of a small Geiger counter, with a GPS device to tag the event time. The experiment is intended to check the basic properties of the random arrival time distribution between successive events and to simulate the investigations carried out by…

  17. Uncertainty in Bus Arrival Time Predictions: Treating Heteroscedasticity With a Metamodel Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Sullivan, Aidan; Pereira, Francisco Camara; Zhao, Jinhua

    2016-01-01

    on the predicted arrival time to be estimated, which give a measure of the uncertainty associated with the individual predictions. This represents to the best of our knowledge the first application of methods to handle the uncertainty in bus arrival times that explicitly takes into account the inherent...

  18. Predictive analytics for truck arrival time estimation : a field study at a European distribution center

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Spoel, Sjoerd; Amrit, Chintan Amrit; van Hillegersberg, Jos

    2017-01-01

    Distribution centres (DCs) are the hubs connecting transport streams in the supply chain. The synchronisation of coming and going cargo at a DC requires reliable arrival times. To achieve this, a reliable method to predict arrival times is needed. A literature review was performed to find the

  19. Estimating range to a vocalizing fin whale using the timing and amplitude of multipath arrivals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weirathmueller, Michelle J; Wilcock, William S D; Hilmo, Rose S

    2017-10-01

    A semi-automated method is described to range to vocalizing fin whales using the timing and amplitude of multipath arrivals measured on seafloor receivers. Calls are detected and multipath arrivals identified with a matched filter. Multipath times and relative amplitudes are predicted as a function of range by ray tracing. Because the direct and first water-column multiple arrivals are not always observed, different hypotheses for the observed arrival paths must be considered. For two arrivals, an amplitude threshold is used to determine if the first arrival is the direct path and if not, the call is disregarded as distant. When three or more arrivals are detected, three hypotheses for the paths of arrivals are considered; the solution is the hypothesis and range that minimizes the timing and optionally, amplitude ratio or absolute amplitude residual. The method is tested with data from two ocean bottom seismometers, one on the Juan de Fuca Ridge and the other in the Cascadia Basin. Solutions obtained by minimizing a combined residual from timing and an empirical absolute amplitude model extracted from the data yield reliable ranges up to 5 km at both sites, and are sufficient to estimate call density using point transect distance sampling.

  20. Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

    2014-12-04

    When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake's parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data.

  1. Sojourn time distributions in a Markovian G-queue with batch arrival and batch removal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Woo Shin

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a single server Markovian queue with two types of customers; positive and negative, where positive customers arrive in batches and arrivals of negative customers remove positive customers in batches. Only positive customers form a queue and negative customers just reduce the system congestion by removing positive ones upon their arrivals. We derive the LSTs of sojourn time distributions for a single server Markovian queue with positive customers and negative customers by using the first passage time arguments for Markov chains.

  2. Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shedlock, Kaye M.; Pakiser, Louis Charles

    1998-01-01

    One of the most frightening and destructive phenomena of nature is a severe earthquake and its terrible aftereffects. An earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth, caused by the abrupt release of strain that has accumulated over a long time. For hundreds of millions of years, the forces of plate tectonics have shaped the Earth as the huge plates that form the Earth's surface slowly move over, under, and past each other. Sometimes the movement is gradual. At other times, the plates are locked together, unable to release the accumulating energy. When the accumulated energy grows strong enough, the plates break free. If the earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause many deaths and injuries and extensive property damage. Today we are challenging the assumption that earthquakes must present an uncontrollable and unpredictable hazard to life and property. Scientists have begun to estimate the locations and likelihoods of future damaging earthquakes. Sites of greatest hazard are being identified, and definite progress is being made in designing structures that will withstand the effects of earthquakes.

  3. A new method for arrival time determination of impact signal based on HHT and AIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Mingzhou; Yang, Jiangxin; Cao, Yanpeng; Fu, Weinan; Cao, Yanlong

    2017-03-01

    Time-difference method is usually used to locate loose parts in nuclear power plant, the key to which is estimating the arrival time of impact signal caused by the crash of loose parts. However, the dispersion behavior of impact signal and the noise of nuclear power station primary circuit have negative effect on the arrival time determination. In this paper, a method of arrival time determination of impact signal based on Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is proposed. Firstly, the impact signal is decomposed by Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Then the instantaneous frequency of the first intrinsic mode function (IMF) is calculated, which characterizes the difference between the background noise and the impact signal. The arrival time is determined finally by AIC function. The proposed method is tested through simulation experiment which takes steel balls as the real loose parts. The deviation between the arrival time determined by proposed method and the real arrival time distributes stably under different SNRs and different sensor-to-drop point distances, mostly within the range ±0.5 ms. The proposed method is also compared with another AIC technique and a RMS approach, both of which have more dispersive distribution of deviation, quite a lot out of the range ±1 ms.

  4. A fire management simulation model using stochastic arrival times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric L. Smith

    1987-01-01

    Fire management simulation models are used to predict the impact of changes in the fire management program on fire outcomes. As with all models, the goal is to abstract reality without seriously distorting relationships between variables of interest. One important variable of fire organization performance is the length of time it takes to get suppression units to the...

  5. Original Research Factors associated with hospital arrival time after ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Background. Late presentation to hospital after onset of stroke affects management and outcomes of the patients. This study aimed to determine the factors associated with time taken to present to hospital after the onset of acute stroke symptoms. Methods. A descriptive cross sectional study was conducted at two ...

  6. Original Research Factors associated with hospital arrival time after ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Abstract. Background. Late presentation to hospital after onset of stroke affects management and outcomes of the patients. This study aimed to determine the factors associated with time taken to present to ...

  7. Tsunami arrival time detection system applicable to discontinuous time series data with outliers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jun-Whan; Park, Sun-Cheon; Lee, Duk Kee; Lee, Jong Ho

    2016-12-01

    Timely detection of tsunamis with water level records is a critical but logistically challenging task because of outliers and gaps. Since tsunami detection algorithms require several hours of past data, outliers could cause false alarms, and gaps can stop the tsunami detection algorithm even after the recording is restarted. In order to avoid such false alarms and time delays, we propose the Tsunami Arrival time Detection System (TADS), which can be applied to discontinuous time series data with outliers. TADS consists of three algorithms, outlier removal, gap filling, and tsunami detection, which are designed to update whenever new data are acquired. After calibrating the thresholds and parameters for the Ulleung-do surge gauge located in the East Sea (Sea of Japan), Korea, the performance of TADS was discussed based on a 1-year dataset with historical tsunamis and synthetic tsunamis. The results show that the overall performance of TADS is effective in detecting a tsunami signal superimposed on both outliers and gaps.

  8. Different motion cues are used to estimate time-to-arrival for frontoparallel and looming trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabro, Finnegan J.; Beardsley, Scott A.; Vaina, Lucia M.

    2012-01-01

    Estimation of time-to-arrival for moving objects is critical to obstacle interception and avoidance, as well as to timing actions such as reaching and grasping moving objects. The source of motion information that conveys arrival time varies with the trajectory of the object raising the question of whether multiple context-dependent mechanisms are involved in this computation. To address this question we conducted a series of psychophysical studies to measure observers’ performance on time-to-arrival estimation when object trajectory was specified by angular motion (“gap closure” trajectories in the frontoparallel plane), looming (colliding trajectories, TTC) or both (passage courses, TTP). We measured performance of time-to-arrival judgments in the presence of irrelevant motion, in which a perpendicular motion vector was added to the object trajectory. Data were compared to models of expected performance based on the use of different components of optical information. Our results demonstrate that for gap closure, performance depended only on the angular motion, whereas for TTC and TTP, both angular and looming motion affected performance. This dissociation of inputs suggests that gap closures are mediated by a separate mechanism than that used for the detection of time-to-collision and time-to-passage. We show that existing models of TTC and TTP estimation make systematic errors in predicting subject performance, and suggest that a model which weights motion cues by their relative time-to-arrival provides a better account of performance. PMID:22056519

  9. Application of real-time GPS to earthquake early warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Richard M. Allen; Alon Ziv

    2011-01-01

      Real-time GPS can provide static-offset observations during an earthquake Real-time GPS provides a robust constrain on magnitude for warnings GPS networks should be used as a companion to seismic...

  10. Earthquake forecasting studies using radon time series data in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walia, Vivek; Kumar, Arvind; Fu, Ching-Chou; Lin, Shih-Jung; Chou, Kuang-Wu; Wen, Kuo-Liang; Chen, Cheng-Hong

    2017-04-01

    For few decades, growing number of studies have shown usefulness of data in the field of seismogeochemistry interpreted as geochemical precursory signals for impending earthquakes and radon is idendified to be as one of the most reliable geochemical precursor. Radon is recognized as short-term precursor and is being monitored in many countries. This study is aimed at developing an effective earthquake forecasting system by inspecting long term radon time series data. The data is obtained from a network of radon monitoring stations eastblished along different faults of Taiwan. The continuous time series radon data for earthquake studies have been recorded and some significant variations associated with strong earthquakes have been observed. The data is also examined to evaluate earthquake precursory signals against environmental factors. An automated real-time database operating system has been developed recently to improve the data processing for earthquake precursory studies. In addition, the study is aimed at the appraisal and filtrations of these environmental parameters, in order to create a real-time database that helps our earthquake precursory study. In recent years, automatic operating real-time database has been developed using R, an open source programming language, to carry out statistical computation on the data. To integrate our data with our working procedure, we use the popular and famous open source web application solution, AMP (Apache, MySQL, and PHP), creating a website that could effectively show and help us manage the real-time database.

  11. Automatic detection of P- and S-wave arrival times: new strategies based on the modified fractal method and basic matching pursuit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi-Durán, Rodrigo; Comte, Diana; Díaz, Marcos; Silva, Jorge F.

    2017-09-01

    In this work, new strategies for automatic identification of P- and S-wave arrival times from digital recorded local seismograms are proposed and analyzed. The database of arrival times previously identified by a human reader was compared with automatic identification techniques based on the Fourier transformation in reduced time (spectrograms), fractal analysis, and the basic matching pursuit algorithm. The first two techniques were used to identify the P-wave arrival times, while the third was used for the identification of the S-wave. For validation, the results were compared with the short-time average over long-time average (STA/LTA) of Rietbrock et al., Geophys Res Lett 39(8), (2012) for the database of aftershocks of the 2010 Maule M w = 8.8 earthquake. The identifiers proposed in this work exhibit good results that outperform the STA/LTA identifier in many scenarios. The average difference from the reference picks (times obtained by the human reader) in P- and S-wave arrival times is ˜ 1 s.

  12. Predator density and timing of arrival affect reef fish community assembly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stier, Adrian C; Geange, Shane W; Hanson, Kate M; Bolker, Benjamin M

    2013-05-01

    Most empirical studies of predation use simple experimental approaches to quantify the effects of predators on prey (e.g., using constant densities of predators, such as ambient vs. zero). However, predator densities vary in time, and these effects may not be well represented by studies that use constant predator densities. Although studies have independently examined the importance of predator density, temporal variability, and timing of arrival (i.e., early or late relative to prey), the relative contribution of these different predator regimes on prey abundance, diversity, and composition remains poorly understood. The hawkfish (Paracirrhites arcatus), a carnivorous coral reef fish, exhibits substantial variability in patch occupancy, density, and timing of arrival to natural reefs. Our field experiments demonstrated that effects of hawkfish on prey abundance depended on both hawkfish density and the timing of their arrival, but not on variability in hawkfish density. Relative to treatments without hawkfish, hawkfish presence reduced prey abundance by 50%. This effect increased with a doubling of hawkfish density (an additional 33% reduction), and when hawkfish arrived later during community development (a 34% reduction). Hawkfish did not affect within-patch diversity (species richness), but they increased between-patch diversity (beta) based on species incidence (22%), and caused shifts in species composition. Our results suggest that the timing of predator arrival can be as important as predator density in modifying prey abundance and community composition.

  13. Managing truck arrivals with time windows to alleviate gate congestion at container terminals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, G.; Govindan, Kannan; Yang, Z.

    2013-01-01

    Long truck queues at gates often limit the efficiency of a container terminal and generate serious air pollution. To reduce the gate congestion, this paper proposes a method called'vessel dependent time windows (VDTWs)' to control truck arrivals, which involves partitioning truck entries...... into groups and assigning different time windows to the groups. The proposed VDTWs method includes three steps: (1) predicting truck arrivals based on the time window assignment, (2) estimating the queue length of trucks, and (3) optimizing the arrangement of time windows to minimize the total cost...... in the system. A conventional Genetic Algorithm (GA), a multi-society GA, and a hybrid algorithm using GA and Simulated Annealing are used to solve the optimization problem. A case study based on a real container terminal in China is performed, which shows the VDTWs method can flatten the truck arrivals...

  14. Changes in the timing of departure and arrival of Irish migrant waterbirds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Donnelly

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There have been many recent reports across Europe and North America of a change in the timing of arrival and departure of a range of migrant bird species to their breeding grounds. These studies have focused primarily on passerine birds and climate warming has been found to be one of the main drivers of earlier arrival and departure in spring. In Ireland, rising spring temperature has been shown to result in the earlier arrival of sub-Saharan passerine species and the early departure of the Whooper Swan. In order to investigate changes in spring arrival and departure dates of waterbirds to Ireland, we extracted latest dates as an indicator of the timing of departure of winter visitors (24 species and earliest dates as an indicator of the timing of arrival of spring/summer migrants (2 species from BirdWatch Ireland’s East Coast Bird reports (1980–2003. Three of the winter visitors showed evidence of later departure and one of earlier departure whereas one of the spring/summer visitors showed evidence of earlier arrival. In order to determine any influence of local temperature on these trends, we analysed data from two synoptic weather stations within the study area and found that spring (average February, March and April air temperature significantly (P < 0.05 increased at a rate of 0.03 °C per year, which was strongly correlated with changes in latest and earliest records. We also tested the sensitivity of bird departure/arrival to temperature and found that Northern Pintail would leave 10 days earlier in response to a 1 °C increase in spring temperature. In addition, we investigated the impact of a large-scale circulation pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, on the timing of arrival and departure which correlated with both advances and delays in departure and arrival. We conclude that the impact of climate change on earliest and latest records of these birds is, as expected, species specific and that local temperature had less of

  15. Sensitivity and consistency studies of muon arrival time distributions measured by KASCADE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Badea, A.F. E-mail: Florin. Badea@ik.fzk.de; Antonia, T.; Apelb, W.D.; Bekk, K.; Bercuci, A.; Bluemer, H.; Bozdog, H.; Brancus, I.M.; Buettner, C.; Chilingarian, A.; Daumiller, K.; Doll, P.; Engler, J.; Fessler, F.; Gils, H.J.; Glasstetter, R.; Haeusler, R.; Haungs, A.; Heck, D.; Hoerandel, J.R.; Iwan, A.; Kampert, K.-H.; Klages, H.O.; Maier, G.; Mathes, H.J.; Mayer, H.J.; Milke, J.; Mueller, M.; Obenland, R.; Oehlschlaeger, J.; Ostapchenkoa, S.; Petcu, M.; Rebel, H.; Risse, M.; Roth, M.; Schatz, G.; Schieler, H.; Scholz, J.; Thouw, T.; Ulrich, H.; Weber, J.H.; Weindl, A.; Wentz, J.; Wochele, J.; Zabierowski, J

    2003-07-01

    Using the facilities of the KASCADE Central Detector EAS muon arrival time distributions, observed with reference to the arrival time of the first locally registered muon, and their correlations with other EAS observables have been investigated at different distances R{sub {mu}} from the shower axis. Invoking detailed Monte Carlo simulations non-parametric multivariate even-by-event analyses have been performed for an estimate of the primary mass composition. The consistency of the Monte Carlo simulations is studied by comparing the primary mass composition results inferred from observations at different R{sub {mu}} and different muon multiplicity thresholds n{sub th}.

  16. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroo Kanamori

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τc and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τc and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.

  17. Application of Astronomic Time-latitude Residuals in Earthquake Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanben, Han; Lihua, Ma; Hui, Hu; Rui, Wang; Youjin, Su

    2007-04-01

    After the earthquake (Ms = 6.1) occurred in Luquan county of Yunnan province on April 18, 1985, the relationship between major earthquakes and astronomical time-latitude residuals (ATLR) of a photoelectric astrolabe in Yunnan Observatory was analyzed. ATLR are the rest after deducting the effects of Earth’s whole motion from the observations of time and latitude. It was found that there appeared the anomalies of the ATLR before earthquakes which happened in and around Yunnan, a seismic active region. The reason of the anomalies is possibly from change of the plumb line due to the motion of the groundmass before earthquakes. Afterwards, using studies of the anomalous characters and laws of ATLR, we tried to provide the warning information prior to the occurrence of a few major earthquakes in the region. The significant synchronous anomalies of ATLR of the observatory appeared before the earthquake of magnitude 6.2 in Dayao county of Yunnan province, on July 21, 2003. It has been again verified that the anomalies possibly provide the prediction information for strong earthquakes around the observatory.

  18. Time series modelling of the Kobe-Osaka earthquake recordings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Singh

    2002-01-01

    generated by an earthquake. With a view of comparing these two types of waveforms, Singh (1992 developed a technique for identifying a model in time domain. Fortunately this technique has been found useful in modelling the recordings of the killer earthquake occurred in the Kobe-Osaka region of Japan at 5.46 am on 17 January, 1995. The aim of the present study is to show how well the method for identifying a model (developed by Singh (1992 can be used for describing the vibrations of the above mentioned earthquake recorded at Charters Towers in Queensland, Australia.

  19. Pulsar navigation using time of arrival (TOA) and time differential TOA (TDTOA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaolin, Ning; Yuqing, Yang; Mingzhen, Gui; Weiren, Wu; Jiancheng, Fang; Gang, Liu

    2018-01-01

    Pulsar navigation is a novel autonomous navigation method for deep-space missions. The pulsar navigation method using the time of arrival (TOA) determines the absolute position of the spacecraft. However, its accuracy is greatly affected by system errors, including the ephemeris error of the pulsar and the satellite-borne clock error. The time differential technique is an innovative method to eliminate these system errors. However, pulsar navigation using time differential TOA (TDTOA) can only provide an accurate relative position, and the absolute position is missing. To solve the problem, pulsar navigation using both TOA and TDTOA is proposed in this paper. Because the measurement of pulsar navigation using TDTOA is not only related to the current state vector but to the previous state vector. The previous state vector is replaced with its estimation, and the covariance matrix of the measurement noise is also derived. Simulations show that the accuracy of the new proposed pulsar navigation method is better than that only using TOA or TDTOA. Besides, the impact factors of the new proposed method are analyzed by simulations.

  20. Recurrence Times of Earthquakes in Oaxaca, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunez-Cornu, F. J.

    2012-12-01

    Oaxaca is the most seismic active region in Mexico with 68 larger events, (mb > 6.5; Ms> 7.0) from 1542 to 1989, which implies roughly a large earthquake every 6.5 years; including an earthquake with M=8.5 which generate the most important historical tsunami in Mexico. It is also the most studied from a seismic point of view. Three types of earthquakes take place in the region: low angle thrust fault (associated to the subduction process) with a depth between 15 to 25 km; normal fault with a depth between 65 and 120 km with epicenters north of Oaxaca City (17°N); normal fault with a depth between 25 to 40 km with epicenters between the coast and Oaxaca City. A seismogenic zoning based in seismic, tectonic and historical seismicity studies zones was proposed in 1989; eight zones were defined, two zone along the coast, one for the isthmus and rest inland. For most of them a characteristic earthquake (from the earthquakes occurred in the previous 61 years) was assigned and several models of recurrence times for the different zones were proposed, in some cases this values ( 94, 80, 68 and 13 years) have a standard deviation error of 20%. 23 Years later, 4 larger earthquake have occurred in the region that seems agreed with the recurrence models proposed. Here the models are revised using the information from the recent earthquakes and new studies in the region

  1. Time and direction of arrival detection and filtering for imaging in strongly scattering random media

    CERN Document Server

    Borcea, Liliana; Tsogka, Chrysoula

    2016-01-01

    We study detection and imaging of small reflectors in heavy clutter, using an array of transducers that emits and receives sound waves. Heavy clutter means that multiple scattering of the waves in the heterogeneous host medium is strong and overwhelms the arrivals from the small reflectors. Building on the adaptive time-frequency filter of [1], we propose a robust method for detecting the direction of arrival of the direct echoes from the small reflectors, and suppressing the unwanted clutter backscatter. This improves the resolution of imaging. We illustrate the performance of the method with realistic numerical simulations in a non-destructive testing setup.

  2. Design of a Normal Conducting Cavity for Arrival Time Stabilization at FLASH

    CERN Document Server

    Fakhari, M.; Pfeiffer, S.; Schlarb, H.; Rossbach, J.

    2016-01-01

    The long range longitudinal wakefield calculation results are reported to investigate the cavity performance for multibeam operation up to 3 MHz bunch repetition rate. The results declare that the influence of the long range wakefield on the arrival time jitter is less than 1 fs.

  3. Analytical geolocation and three-dimensional localisation by time difference of arrival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Naus, H.W.L.

    2016-01-01

    Geolocation based on time differences of arrival measured by three sensors is studied. Closed-form analytical solutions are derived, even for the cases where one or more sensors are not located on the earth. Exploiting four sensors, full three-dimensional localisation is achieved as well. These

  4. An Erlang Loss Queue with Time-Phased Batch Arrivals as a Model for Traffic Control in Communication Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moon Ho Lee

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available A multiserver queueing model that does not have a buffer but has batch arrival of customers is considered. In contrast to the standard batch arrival, in which the entire batch arrives at the system during a single epoch, we assume that the customers of a batch (flow arrive individually in exponentially distributed times. The service time is exponentially distributed. Flows arrive according to a stationary Poisson arrival process. The flow size distribution is geometric. The number of flows that can be simultaneously admitted to the system is under control. The loss of any customer from an admitted flow, with a fixed probability, implies termination of the flow arrival. Analysis of the sojourn time and loss probability of an arbitrary flow is performed.

  5. High-speed quantum-random number generation by continuous measurement of arrival time of photons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Qiurong; Zhao, Baosheng; Hua, Zhang; Liao, Qinghong; Yang, Hao

    2015-07-01

    We demonstrate a novel high speed and multi-bit optical quantum random number generator by continuously measuring arrival time of photons with a common starting point. To obtain the unbiased and post-processing free random bits, the measured photon arrival time is converted into the sum of integral multiple of a fixed period and a phase time. Theoretical and experimental results show that the phase time is an independent and uniform random variable. A random bit extraction method by encoding the phase time is proposed. An experimental setup has been built and the unbiased random bit generation rate could reach 128 Mb/s, with random bit generation efficiency of 8 bits per detected photon. The random numbers passed all tests in the statistical test suite.

  6. Flow Time Analysis of Load Management Late Arrival Discrete Time Queueing System with Dual Service Rate Using Hypogeometrical Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Asif Ali Shah

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Flow time analysis is a powerful concept to analyze the flow time of any arriving customer in any system at any instant. A load management mechanism can be employed very effectively in any queueing system by utilizing a system which provides probability of dual service rate. In this paper, we develop and demonstrate the flow and service processes transition diagram to determine the flow time of a customer in a load management late arrival state dependent finite discrete time queueing system with dual service rate where customers are hypogeometrically distributed. We compute the probability mass function of each starting state and total probability mass function. The obtained analytical results are validated with simulation results for varying values of arrival and service probabilities.

  7. Precise and accurate train run data: Approximation of actual arrival and departure times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richter, Troels; Landex, Alex; Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær

    possible with the present systems. GPS data from a major Danish Railway Undertaking is used as an alternate data source with more accurate arrival and departure times. The offset is based on the median of the time difference between these two sources. Factors taken into consideration when constructing......On the most intensively used parts of the Danish railway network, registration of arrivals and departure times are based on occupation of main track circuits and block sections. These measurements are precise. However, due to the nature of track circuits, they do not register the actual time when...... trains have come to a halt nor when trains have set in motion again. Thus the measurements are inaccurate and do not express the experience of the passengers. A commonly accepted method to make this measurement possible is to construct a correction function to the track circuit based measurement...

  8. An Arrival and Departure Time Predictor for Scheduling Communication in Opportunistic IoT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Pozza

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, an Arrival and Departure Time Predictor (ADTP for scheduling communication in opportunistic Internet of Things (IoT is presented. The proposed algorithm learns about temporal patterns of encounters between IoT devices and predicts future arrival and departure times, therefore future contact durations. By relying on such predictions, a neighbour discovery scheduler is proposed, capable of jointly optimizing discovery latency and power consumption in order to maximize communication time when contacts are expected with high probability and, at the same time, saving power when contacts are expected with low probability. A comprehensive performance evaluation with different sets of synthetic and real world traces shows that ADTP performs favourably with respect to previous state of the art. This prediction framework opens opportunities for transmission planners and schedulers optimizing not only neighbour discovery, but the entire communication process.

  9. An Arrival and Departure Time Predictor for Scheduling Communication in Opportunistic IoT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozza, Riccardo; Georgoulas, Stylianos; Moessner, Klaus; Nati, Michele; Gluhak, Alexander; Krco, Srdjan

    2016-11-04

    In this article, an Arrival and Departure Time Predictor (ADTP) for scheduling communication in opportunistic Internet of Things (IoT) is presented. The proposed algorithm learns about temporal patterns of encounters between IoT devices and predicts future arrival and departure times, therefore future contact durations. By relying on such predictions, a neighbour discovery scheduler is proposed, capable of jointly optimizing discovery latency and power consumption in order to maximize communication time when contacts are expected with high probability and, at the same time, saving power when contacts are expected with low probability. A comprehensive performance evaluation with different sets of synthetic and real world traces shows that ADTP performs favourably with respect to previous state of the art. This prediction framework opens opportunities for transmission planners and schedulers optimizing not only neighbour discovery, but the entire communication process.

  10. Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring with Spatio-Temporal Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittier, J. C.; Nittel, S.; Subasinghe, I.

    2017-10-01

    With live streaming sensors and sensor networks, increasingly large numbers of individual sensors are deployed in physical space. Sensor data streams are a fundamentally novel mechanism to deliver observations to information systems. They enable us to represent spatio-temporal continuous phenomena such as radiation accidents, toxic plumes, or earthquakes almost as instantaneously as they happen in the real world. Sensor data streams discretely sample an earthquake, while the earthquake is continuous over space and time. Programmers attempting to integrate many streams to analyze earthquake activity and scope need to write code to integrate potentially very large sets of asynchronously sampled, concurrent streams in tedious application code. In previous work, we proposed the field stream data model (Liang et al., 2016) for data stream engines. Abstracting the stream of an individual sensor as a temporal field, the field represents the Earth's movement at the sensor position as continuous. This simplifies analysis across many sensors significantly. In this paper, we undertake a feasibility study of using the field stream model and the open source Data Stream Engine (DSE) Apache Spark(Apache Spark, 2017) to implement a real-time earthquake event detection with a subset of the 250 GPS sensor data streams of the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN). The field-based real-time stream queries compute maximum displacement values over the latest query window of each stream, and related spatially neighboring streams to identify earthquake events and their extent. Further, we correlated the detected events with an USGS earthquake event feed. The query results are visualized in real-time.

  11. REAL-TIME EARTHQUAKE MONITORING WITH SPATIO-TEMPORAL FIELDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Whittier

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available With live streaming sensors and sensor networks, increasingly large numbers of individual sensors are deployed in physical space. Sensor data streams are a fundamentally novel mechanism to deliver observations to information systems. They enable us to represent spatio-temporal continuous phenomena such as radiation accidents, toxic plumes, or earthquakes almost as instantaneously as they happen in the real world. Sensor data streams discretely sample an earthquake, while the earthquake is continuous over space and time. Programmers attempting to integrate many streams to analyze earthquake activity and scope need to write code to integrate potentially very large sets of asynchronously sampled, concurrent streams in tedious application code. In previous work, we proposed the field stream data model (Liang et al., 2016 for data stream engines. Abstracting the stream of an individual sensor as a temporal field, the field represents the Earth’s movement at the sensor position as continuous. This simplifies analysis across many sensors significantly. In this paper, we undertake a feasibility study of using the field stream model and the open source Data Stream Engine (DSE Apache Spark(Apache Spark, 2017 to implement a real-time earthquake event detection with a subset of the 250 GPS sensor data streams of the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN. The field-based real-time stream queries compute maximum displacement values over the latest query window of each stream, and related spatially neighboring streams to identify earthquake events and their extent. Further, we correlated the detected events with an USGS earthquake event feed. The query results are visualized in real-time.

  12. Natural Time and Nowcasting Earthquakes: Are Large Global Earthquakes Temporally Clustered?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luginbuhl, Molly; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal clustering of large global earthquakes with respect to natural time, or interevent count, as opposed to regular clock time. To do this, we use two techniques: (1) nowcasting, a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk, and (2) time series analysis of interevent counts. We chose the sequences of M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and M_{λ } ≥ 8.0 earthquakes from the global centroid moment tensor (CMT) catalog from 2004 to 2016 for analysis. A significant number of these earthquakes will be aftershocks of the largest events, but no satisfactory method of declustering the aftershocks in clock time is available. A major advantage of using natural time is that it eliminates the need for declustering aftershocks. The event count we utilize is the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The small earthquake magnitude is chosen to be as small as possible, such that the catalog is still complete based on the Gutenberg-Richter statistics. For the CMT catalog, starting in 2004, we found the completeness magnitude to be M_{σ } ≥ 5.1 . For the nowcasting method, the cumulative probability distribution of these interevent counts is obtained. We quantify the distribution using the exponent, β , of the best fitting Weibull distribution; β = 1 for a random (exponential) distribution. We considered 197 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 and found β = 0.83 ± 0.08 . We considered 15 earthquakes with M_{λ } ≥ 8.0, but this number was considered too small to generate a meaningful distribution. For comparison, we generated synthetic catalogs of earthquakes that occur randomly with the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude statistics. We considered a synthetic catalog of 1.97 × 10^5 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 earthquakes and found β = 0.99 ± 0.01 . The random catalog converted to natural time was also random. We then generated 1.5 × 10^4 synthetic catalogs with 197 M_{λ } ≥ 7.0 in each catalog

  13. A moment in time: emergency nurses and the Canterbury earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, S; Ardagh, M; Grainger, P; Robinson, V

    2013-06-01

    To outline the impact of the Canterbury, New Zealand (NZ) earthquakes on Christchurch Hospital, and the experiences of emergency nurses during this time. NZ has experienced earthquakes and aftershocks centred in the Canterbury region of the South Island. The location of these, around and within the major city of Christchurch, was unexpected and associated with previously unknown fault lines. While the highest magnitude quake occurred in September 2010, registering 7.1 on the Richter scale, it was the magnitude 6.3 event on 22 February 2011 which was associated with the greatest injury burden and loss of life. Staff working in the only emergency department in the city were faced with an external emergency while also being directly affected as part of the disaster. SOURCES OF EVIDENCE: This paper developed following interviews with nurses who worked during this period, and draws on literature related to healthcare responses to earthquakes and natural disasters. The establishment of an injury database allowed for an accurate picture to emerge of the injury burden, and each of the authors was present and worked in a clinical capacity during the earthquake. Nurses played a significant role in the response to the earthquakes and its aftermath. However, little is known regarding the impact of this, either in personal or professional terms. This paper presents an overview of the earthquakes and experiences of nurses working during this time, identifying a range of issues that will benefit from further exploration and research. It seeks to provide a sense of the experiences and the potential meanings that were derived from being part of this 'moment in time'. Examples of innovations in practice emerged during the earthquake response and a number of recommendations for nursing practice are identified. © 2013 The Authors. International Nursing Review © 2013 International Council of Nurses.

  14. Cerebral arterial bolus arrival time is prolonged in multiple sclerosis and associated with disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paling, David; Thade Petersen, Esben; Tozer, Daniel J; Altmann, Daniel R; Wheeler-Kingshott, Claudia A M; Kapoor, Raju; Miller, David H; Golay, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Alterations in the overall cerebral hemodynamics have been reported in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, their cause and significance is unknown. While potential venous causes have been examined, arterial causes have not. In this study, a multiple delay time arterial spin labeling magnetic resonance imaging sequence at 3T was used to quantify the arterial hemodynamic parameter bolus arrival time (BAT) and cerebral blood flow (CBF) in normal-appearing white matter (NAWM) and deep gray matter in 33 controls and 35 patients with relapsing-remitting MS. Bolus arrival time was prolonged in MS in NAWM (1.0±0.2 versus 0.9±0.2 seconds, P=0.031) and deep gray matter (0.90±0.18 versus 0.80±0.14 seconds, P=0.001) and CBF was increased in NAWM (14±4 versus 10±2 mL/100 g/min, P=0.001). Prolonged BAT in NAWM (P=0.042) and deep gray matter (P=0.01) were associated with higher expanded disability status score. This study demonstrates alteration in cerebral arterial hemodynamics in MS. One possible cause may be widespread inflammation. Bolus arrival time was longer in patients with greater disability independent of atrophy and T2 lesion load, suggesting alterations in cerebral arterial hemodynamics may be a marker of clinically relevant pathology.

  15. Two-Step Time of Arrival Estimation for Pulse-Based Ultra-Wideband Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Vincent Poor

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In cooperative localization systems, wireless nodes need to exchange accurate position-related information such as time-of-arrival (TOA and angle-of-arrival (AOA, in order to obtain accurate location information. One alternative for providing accurate position-related information is to use ultra-wideband (UWB signals. The high time resolution of UWB signals presents a potential for very accurate positioning based on TOA estimation. However, it is challenging to realize very accurate positioning systems in practical scenarios, due to both complexity/cost constraints and adverse channel conditions such as multipath propagation. In this paper, a two-step TOA estimation algorithm is proposed for UWB systems in order to provide accurate TOA estimation under practical constraints. In order to speed up the estimation process, the first step estimates a coarse TOA of the received signal based on received signal energy. Then, in the second step, the arrival time of the first signal path is estimated by considering a hypothesis testing approach. The proposed scheme uses low-rate correlation outputs and is able to perform accurate TOA estimation in reasonable time intervals. The simulation results are presented to analyze the performance of the estimator.

  16. Two-fractal overlap time series: Earthquakes and market crashes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We find prominent similarities in the features of the time series for the (model earthquakes or) overlap of two Cantor sets when one set moves with uniform relative velocity over the other and time series of stock prices. An anticipation method for some of the crashes have been proposed here, based on these observations.

  17. Dead on Arrival: Adapting Games to Finish at a Given Time or Location

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Öhsen, Arne; Loviscach, Jörn

    Casual and other games often serve as time-killing applications, be it on the commuter train or in the back seat of a shared car. When one arrives at the destination, the game has to be interrupted or aborted, which is annoying or even frustrating. Hence, we propose to continuously adapt the game’s level of difficulty to the estimated remaining time to arrival. This can be preset as a number of minutes or can continuously be estimated from the player’s position in relation to a predefined destination. Our dungeon-style prototype is based on an automated engine for content placement and can also make use of GPS data. We report on preliminary results from user tests.

  18. Reducing emergence services arrival time by using vehicular communications and Evolution Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Barrachina, Javier; Garrido, Piedad; Fogue, Manuel; Martínez, Francisco J.; Cano Escribá, Juan Carlos; Tavares De Araujo Cesariny Calafate, Carlos Miguel; Manzoni, Pietro

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, traffic jams in urban areas have become a problem that keeps growing every year since the number of vehicles in our cities is continuously increasing. One of the most common causes producing traffic jams are vehicle accidents. Moreover, the arrival time of the emergency services could be raised due to traffic congestion. Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) have a key role in order to reduce or mitigate this problem. In this paper, we propose four different approaches addressing...

  19. Inversion of seismic arrival times with erratic noise using robust Tikhonov-TV regularization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alrajawi, M.; Siahkoohi, H. R.; Gholami, A.

    2017-11-01

    A variety of methods have been presented to invert arrival times of seismic waves for velocity distribution. In real world, the velocity distribution models are piecewise smooth and consist of blocky structures as well as smooth varying parts. In such cases, implementation of Tikhonov regularization alone will recover the smooth varying parts of the velocity model, while the total variation (TV) regularization only is capable of recovering the blocky varying parts of the velocity model. In previous studies, combination of Tikhonov and TV regularizations (hereafter called classic Tikhonov-TV regularization) was used as a remedy for solving such inverse problems. In this study, we propose a method to minimize a cost function which of both Tikhonov and TV regularizations. The method is capable of suppressing undesired effects of the erratic noises and recovering both blocky and smooth varying parts of the model. An iteratively reweighted least-squares technique is used as a fast and efficient algorithm for minimization of the cost function. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the method, it is tested on both synthetic and real vertical seismic profiling arrival times as well as on a synthetic and real cross well arrival times. The proposed robust Tikhonov-TV method estimates better velocity model as compared to the robust Tikhonov and robust TV regularization methods. According to the results, the proposed hybrid method efficiently eliminates the individual weaknesses of constituent regularization methods.

  20. Statistical models of interoccurrence times of Iranian earthquakes on ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    By analyzing the seismic catalogue of Iran, the probability distributions of interoccurrence times of earthquakes were investigated for different seismotectonic ... normal regime to a gamma regime occurs if the threshold magnitude in certain seismotectonic regions (Alborz–Azarbayejan, Zagros, and Central-East Iran) is ...

  1. Operational real-time GPS-enhanced earthquake early warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    R Grapenthin; I A Johanson; R M Allen

    2014-01-01

    .... Recently, a range of high-rate GPS strategies have been demonstrated on off-line data. Here we present the first operational system for real-time GPS-enhanced earthquake early warning as implemented at the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (BSL...

  2. Two-fractal overlap time series: Earthquakes and market crashes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    203–210. Two-fractal overlap time series: Earthquakes and market crashes. BIKAS K CHAKRABARTI1,2,∗, ARNAB CHATTERJEE1,3 and. PRATIP BHATTACHARYYA1,4. 1Theoretical Condensed Matter Physics Division and Centre for Applied Mathematics and. Computational Science, Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, ...

  3. Statistical models of interoccurrence times of Iranian earthquakes on ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Zagros, and Central-East Iran) is changed. 1. Introduction. Earthquakes are ... Information criteria; interoccurrence time model; seismotectonic province; generalized gamma family; lognormal–gamma transition. J. Earth Syst. Sci. 121 ...... ilar fashion to what was observed in the seismo- tectonic provinces. However, we have ...

  4. Congestion Behavior under Uncertainty on Morning Commute with Preferred Arrival Time Interval

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LingLing Xiao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper extends the bottleneck model to study congestion behavior of morning commute with flexible work schedule. The proposed model assumes a stochastic bottleneck capacity which follows a uniform distribution and homogeneous commuters who have the same preferred arrival time interval. The commuters are fully aware of the stochastic properties of travel time and schedule delay distributions at all departure times that emerge from day-to-day capacity variations. The commuters’ departure time choice follows user equilibrium (UE principle in terms of the expected trip cost. Analytical and numerical solutions of this model are provided. The equilibrium departure time patterns are examined which show that the stochastic capacity increases the mean trip cost and lengthens the rush hour. The adoption of flexitime results in less congestion and more efficient use of bottleneck capacity than fixed-time work schedule. The longer the flexi-time interval is, the more uniformly distributed the departure times are.

  5. The Time Difference of Arrival Estimation of Wi-Fi Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Bezousek

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The papers deals with a modeling of a Time- Difference of Arrival system for a subscriber station localization, based on the 802.11 standard wireless network. In the case of severe multipath effects the standard TDOA estimation methods, based on correlation of signals, received by conveniently displaced receiving stations show large errors. Thus, a new algorithm is proposed using received signals decomposition to a set of delayed replicas. This represents a linear estimation of reflected signals amplitudes. The described method leads to a better estimation of time differences of the signals, propagating on the direct paths between the emitter and the receiving stations.

  6. Precise and accurate train run data: Approximation of actual arrival and departure times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richter, Troels; Landex, Alex; Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær

    possible with the present systems. GPS data from a major Danish Railway Undertaking is used as an alternate data source with more accurate arrival and departure times. The offset is based on the median of the time difference between these two sources. Factors taken into consideration when constructing...... the correction function, are location, message type, platform used and train type. The approximated correction values are then analysed to ensure that interquartile range is within the defined criteria. The practical implementation is an additional column in the train run history database tables...

  7. The function of bilateral odor arrival time differences in olfactory orientation of sharks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardiner, Jayne M; Atema, Jelle

    2010-07-13

    The direction of an odor signal source can be estimated from bilateral differences in signal intensity and/or arrival time. The best-known examples of the use of arrival time differences are in acoustic orientation. For chemoreception, animals are believed to orient by comparing bilateral odor concentration differences, turning toward higher concentrations. However, time differences should not be ignored, because odor plumes show chaotic intermittency, with the concentration variance several orders of magnitude greater than the concentration mean. We presented a small shark species, Mustelus canis, with carefully timed and measured odor pulses directly into their nares. They turned toward the side stimulated first, even with delayed pulses of higher concentration. This is the first conclusive evidence that under seminatural conditions and without training, bilateral time differences trump odor concentration differences. This response would steer the shark into an odor patch each time and thereby enhance its contact with the plume, i.e., a stream of patches. Animals with more widely spaced nares would be able to resolve smaller angles of attack at higher swimming speeds, a feature that may have contributed to the evolution of hammerhead sharks. This constitutes a novel steering algorithm for tracking odor plumes. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Ready...go: Amplitude of the FMRI signal encodes expectation of cue arrival time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Cui

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available What happens when the brain awaits a signal of uncertain arrival time, as when a sprinter waits for the starting pistol? And what happens just after the starting pistol fires? Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, we have discovered a novel correlate of temporal expectations in several brain regions, most prominently in the supplementary motor area (SMA. Contrary to expectations, we found little fMRI activity during the waiting period; however, a large signal appears after the "go" signal, the amplitude of which reflects learned expectations about the distribution of possible waiting times. Specifically, the amplitude of the fMRI signal appears to encode a cumulative conditional probability, also known as the cumulative hazard function. The fMRI signal loses its dependence on waiting time in a "countdown" condition in which the arrival time of the go cue is known in advance, suggesting that the signal encodes temporal probabilities rather than simply elapsed time. The dependence of the signal on temporal expectation is present in "no-go" conditions, demonstrating that the effect is not a consequence of motor output. Finally, the encoding is not dependent on modality, operating in the same manner with auditory or visual signals. This finding extends our understanding of the relationship between temporal expectancy and measurable neural signals.

  9. Earthquake interevent time distribution in Kachchh, Northwestern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasari, Sumanta; Dikshit, Onkar

    2015-08-01

    Statistical properties of earthquake interevent times have long been the topic of interest to seismologists and earthquake professionals, mainly for hazard-related concerns. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study on the temporal statistics of earthquake interoccurrence times of the seismically active Kachchh peninsula (western India) from thirteen probability distributions. Those distributions are exponential, gamma, lognormal, Weibull, Levy, Maxwell, Pareto, Rayleigh, inverse Gaussian (Brownian passage time), inverse Weibull (Frechet), exponentiated exponential, exponentiated Rayleigh (Burr type X), and exponentiated Weibull distributions. Statistical inferences of the scale and shape parameters of these distributions are discussed from the maximum likelihood estimations and the Fisher information matrices. The latter are used as a surrogate tool to appraise the parametric uncertainty in the estimation process. The results were found on the basis of two goodness-of-fit tests: the maximum likelihood criterion with its modification to Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) minimum distance criterion. These results reveal that (i) the exponential model provides the best fit, (ii) the gamma, lognormal, Weibull, inverse Gaussian, exponentiated exponential, exponentiated Rayleigh, and exponentiated Weibull models provide an intermediate fit, and (iii) the rest, namely Levy, Maxwell, Pareto, Rayleigh, and inverse Weibull, fit poorly to the earthquake catalog of Kachchh and its adjacent regions. This study also analyzes the present-day seismicity in terms of the estimated recurrence interval and conditional probability curves (hazard curves). The estimated cumulative probability and the conditional probability of a magnitude 5.0 or higher event reach 0.8-0.9 by 2027-2036 and 2034-2043, respectively. These values have significant implications in a variety of practical applications including earthquake insurance, seismic zonation

  10. The NANOGrav Nine-year Data Set: Excess Noise in Millisecond Pulsar Arrival Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, M. T.; Cordes, J. M.; Chatterjee, S.; Arzoumanian, Z.; Crowter, K.; Demorest, P. B.; Dolch, T.; Ellis, J. A.; Ferdman, R. D.; Fonseca, E.; Gonzalez, M. E.; Jones, G.; Jones, M. L.; Levin, L.; Madison, D. R.; McLaughlin, M. A.; Nice, D. J.; Pennucci, T. T.; Ransom, S. M.; Shannon, R. M.; Siemens, X.; Stairs, I. H.; Stovall, K.; Swiggum, J. K.; Zhu, W. W.

    2017-01-01

    Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy using a pulsar timing array requires high-quality millisecond pulsars (MSPs), correctable interstellar propagation delays, and high-precision measurements of pulse times of arrival. Here we identify noise in timing residuals that exceeds that predicted for arrival time estimation for MSPs observed by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. We characterize the excess noise using variance and structure function analyses. We find that 26 out of 37 pulsars show inconsistencies with a white-noise-only model based on the short timescale analysis of each pulsar, and we demonstrate that the excess noise has a red power spectrum for 15 pulsars. We also decompose the excess noise into chromatic (radio-frequency-dependent) and achromatic components. Associating the achromatic red-noise component with spin noise and including additional power-spectrum-based estimates from the literature, we estimate a scaling law in terms of spin parameters (frequency and frequency derivative) and data-span length and compare it to the scaling law of Shannon & Cordes. We briefly discuss our results in terms of detection of GWs at nanohertz frequencies.

  11. THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: EXCESS NOISE IN MILLISECOND PULSAR ARRIVAL TIMES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lam, M. T.; Jones, M. L.; McLaughlin, M. A.; Pennucci, T. T. [Department of Physics, West Virginia University, White Hall, Morgantown, WV 26506 (United States); Cordes, J. M.; Chatterjee, S. [Department of Astronomy and Cornell Center for Astrophysics and Planetary Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States); Arzoumanian, Z. [Center for Research and Exploration in Space Science and Technology and X-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 662, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Crowter, K.; Fonseca, E.; Gonzalez, M. E. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia, 6224 Agricultural Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1 (Canada); Demorest, P. B. [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, P.O. Box 0, Socorro, NM, 87801 (United States); Dolch, T. [Department of Physics, Hillsdale College, 33 E. College Street, Hillsdale, MI 49242 (United States); Ellis, J. A [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena CA, 91109 (United States); Ferdman, R. D. [Department of Physics, McGill University, 3600 rue Universite, Montreal, QC H3A 2T8 (Canada); Jones, G. [Department of Physics, Columbia University, 550 W. 120th Street, New York, NY 10027 (United States); Levin, L. [Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, School of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Madison, D. R.; Ransom, S. M. [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, 520 Edgemont Road, Charlottesville, VA 22903 (United States); Nice, D. J. [Department of Physics, Lafayette College, Easton, PA 18042 (United States); Shannon, R. M., E-mail: michael.lam@mail.wvu.edu [CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science, Australia Telescope National Facility, Box 76, Epping NSW 1710 (Australia); and others

    2017-01-01

    Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy using a pulsar timing array requires high-quality millisecond pulsars (MSPs), correctable interstellar propagation delays, and high-precision measurements of pulse times of arrival. Here we identify noise in timing residuals that exceeds that predicted for arrival time estimation for MSPs observed by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. We characterize the excess noise using variance and structure function analyses. We find that 26 out of 37 pulsars show inconsistencies with a white-noise-only model based on the short timescale analysis of each pulsar, and we demonstrate that the excess noise has a red power spectrum for 15 pulsars. We also decompose the excess noise into chromatic (radio-frequency-dependent) and achromatic components. Associating the achromatic red-noise component with spin noise and including additional power-spectrum-based estimates from the literature, we estimate a scaling law in terms of spin parameters (frequency and frequency derivative) and data-span length and compare it to the scaling law of Shannon and Cordes. We briefly discuss our results in terms of detection of GWs at nanohertz frequencies.

  12. FPGA-based real-time implementation for direction-of-arrival estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulrahman Alhamed

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Direction-of-arrival (DOA estimation of radio signals is of utmost importance in many commercial and military applications. In this study, the authors propose an efficient field-programmable gate array (FPGA architecture for implementing a recently published DOA estimation algorithm. This algorithm estimates DOAs by making use of QR decomposition of the received data matrix of four- and eight-element uniform linear antenna arrays. The hardware implementation has been thoroughly analysed and experimentally validated by building a real-time prototype of the DOA estimation algorithm. The experimental results show good agreement between DOA estimates obtained by the prototype and true values.

  13. Prediction of the Critical Curvature for LX-17 with the Time of Arrival Data from DNS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yao, Jin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Fried, Laurence E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Moss, William C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-01-10

    We extract the detonation shock front velocity, curvature and acceleration from time of arrival data measured at grid points from direct numerical simulations of a 50mm rate-stick lit by a disk-source, with the ignition and growth reaction model and a JWL equation of state calibrated for LX-17. We compute the quasi-steady (D, κ) relation based on the extracted properties and predicted the critical curvatures of LX-17. We also proposed an explicit formula that contains the failure turning point, obtained from optimization for the (D, κ) relation of LX-17.

  14. The Effect of Integration Policies on the Time until Regular Employment of Newly Arrived Immigrants:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Jens; Heinesen, Eskil; Hummelgaard, Hans

    We analyse the effect of active labour-market programmes on the hazard rate into regular employment for newly arrived immigrants using the timing-of-events duration model. We take account of language course participation and progression in destination country language skills. We use rich...... administrative data from Denmark. We find substantial lock-in effects of participation in active labour-market programmes. Post programme effects on the hazard rate to regular employment are significantly positive for wage subsidy programmes, but not for other types of programmes. For language course...... participants, improvement in language proficiency has significant and substantial positive effects on the hazard rate to employment....

  15. Efficient time of arrival estimation in the presence of multipath propagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villemin, Guilhem; Fossati, Caroline; Bourennane, Salah

    2013-10-01

    Most of acoustical experiments face multipath propagation issues. The times of arrival of different ray paths on a sensor can be very close. To estimate them, high resolution algorithms have been developed. The main drawback of these methods is their need of a full rank spectral matrix of the signals. The frequential smoothing technique overcomes this issue by dividing the received signal spectrum into several overlapping sub-bands. This division yields a transfer matrix that may suffer rank deficiency. In this paper, a new criterion to optimally choose the sub-band frequencies is proposed. Encouraging results were obtained on real-world data.

  16. Combining multiple earthquake models in real time for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Wu, Stephen; Beck, James L; Heaton, Thomas H.

    2017-01-01

    The ultimate goal of earthquake early warning (EEW) is to provide local shaking information to users before the strong shaking from an earthquake reaches their location. This is accomplished by operating one or more real‐time analyses that attempt to predict shaking intensity, often by estimating the earthquake’s location and magnitude and then predicting the ground motion from that point source. Other EEW algorithms use finite rupture models or may directly estimate ground motion without first solving for an earthquake source. EEW performance could be improved if the information from these diverse and independent prediction models could be combined into one unified, ground‐motion prediction. In this article, we set the forecast shaking at each location as the common ground to combine all these predictions and introduce a Bayesian approach to creating better ground‐motion predictions. We also describe how this methodology could be used to build a new generation of EEW systems that provide optimal decisions customized for each user based on the user’s individual false‐alarm tolerance and the time necessary for that user to react.

  17. The First Results of Testing Methods and Algorithms for Automatic Real Time Identification of Waveforms Introduction from Local Earthquakes in Increased Level of Man-induced Noises for the Purposes of Ultra-short-term Warning about an Occurred Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravirov, V. V.; Kislov, K. V.

    2009-12-01

    The chief hazard posed by earthquakes consists in their suddenness. The number of earthquakes annually recorded is in excess of 100,000; of these, over 1000 are strong ones. Great human losses usually occur because no devices exist for advance warning of earthquakes. It is therefore high time that mobile information automatic systems should be developed for analysis of seismic information at high levels of manmade noise. The systems should be operated in real time with the minimum possible computational delays and be able to make fast decisions. The chief statement of the project is that sufficiently complete information about an earthquake can be obtained in real time by examining its first onset as recorded by a single seismic sensor or a local seismic array. The essential difference from the existing systems consists in the following: analysis of local seismic data at high levels of manmade noise (that is, when the noise level may be above the seismic signal level), as well as self-contained operation. The algorithms developed during the execution of the project will be capable to be used with success for individual personal protection kits and for warning the population in earthquake-prone areas over the world. The system being developed for this project uses P and S waves as well. The difference in the velocities of these seismic waves permits a technique to be developed for identifying a damaging earthquake. Real time analysis of first onsets yields the time that remains before surface waves arrive and the damage potential of these waves. Estimates show that, when the difference between the earthquake epicenter and the monitored site is of order 200 km, the time difference between the arrivals of P waves and surface waves will be about 30 seconds, which is quite sufficient to evacuate people from potentially hazardous space, insertion of moderators at nuclear power stations, pipeline interlocking, transportation stoppage, warnings issued to rescue services

  18. Real Time Metrics and Analysis of Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Shivanjli; Fergus, John

    2017-01-01

    To address the Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) challenge, NASA is developing and demonstrating trajectory-based departure automation under a collaborative effort with the FAA and industry known Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2). ATD-2 builds upon and integrates previous NASA research capabilities that include the Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA), the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC), and the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSAS) capability. As trajectory-based departure scheduling and collaborative decision making tools are introduced in order to reduce delays and uncertainties in taxi and climb operations across the National Airspace System, users of the tools across a number of roles benefit from a real time system that enables common situational awareness. A real time dashboard was developed to inform and present users notifications and integrated information regarding airport surface operations. The dashboard is a supplement to capabilities and tools that incorporate arrival, departure, and surface air-traffic operations concepts in a NextGen environment. In addition to shared situational awareness, the dashboard offers the ability to compute real time metrics and analysis to inform users about capacity, predictability, and efficiency of the system as a whole. This paper describes the architecture of the real time dashboard as well as an initial proposed set of metrics. The potential impact of the real time dashboard is studied at the site identified for initial deployment and demonstration in 2017: Charlotte-Douglas International Airport (CLT). The architecture of implementing such a tool as well as potential uses are presented for operations at CLT. Metrics computed in real time illustrate the opportunity to provide common situational awareness and inform users of system delay, throughput, taxi time, and airport capacity. In addition, common awareness of delays and the impact of takeoff and departure

  19. Kalman Filters for Time Delay of Arrival-Based Source Localization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klee Ulrich

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we propose an algorithm for acoustic source localization based on time delay of arrival (TDOA estimation. In earlier work by other authors, an initial closed-form approximation was first used to estimate the true position of the speaker followed by a Kalman filtering stage to smooth the time series of estimates. In the proposed algorithm, this closed-form approximation is eliminated by employing a Kalman filter to directly update the speaker's position estimate based on the observed TDOAs. In particular, the TDOAs comprise the observation associated with an extended Kalman filter whose state corresponds to the speaker's position. We tested our algorithm on a data set consisting of seminars held by actual speakers. Our experiments revealed that the proposed algorithm provides source localization accuracy superior to the standard spherical and linear intersection techniques. Moreover, the proposed algorithm, although relying on an iterative optimization scheme, proved efficient enough for real-time operation.

  20. Application of Cyclostationary Signal Selectivity to the Carry-On Multi-Platform GPS Assisted Time Difference of Arrival System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Streight, David

    1997-01-01

    .... The Applied Research Lab at the University of Texas at Austin (ARL:UT) has developed a prototype TDOA system, the Carry-on Multi-platform GPS Assisted Time Difference of Arrival System for the Naval Information Warfare Activity...

  1. Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause property damage, injuries, and even deaths. If you live in a coastal area, there is the possibility of a tsunami. Damage from earthquakes can also lead to floods or fires. Although there are no guarantees of ...

  2. A Consultative Approach to Charter Party Agreements Based on Virtual On Time Arrival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huw Davies

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Charter Party agreements underpin the relationship between ship owners and charterers. The agreement guarantees the performance of a vessel in terms of speed and fuel consumption. On this basis the charterers plan the arrival of their cargo and their profit margin. However, ship performance is degraded by age, periods between maintenance and many vessels fail to perform as expected. Moreover the performance is only warranted during the specific conditions stated in the charter party which are not always clear. These usually refer to Beaufort Force (BF and the Douglas Sea and Swell (DSS scale which is archaic in the age of Numerical Weather Prediction. Given these conditions, the stage is set for conflict and there are often disputes over the weather conditions experienced. Moreover ships’ often do not arrive on time because the charterer has assumed that the ship will make good its warranted speed and not taken account of the forecast weather conditions. The authors propose a new way of approaching charter agreements with the emphasis on consultation rather than confrontation facilitated by a new web based software platform.

  3. Real Time Metrics and Analysis of Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Shivanjli; Fergus, John

    2017-01-01

    A real time dashboard was developed in order to inform and present users notifications and integrated information regarding airport surface operations. The dashboard is a supplement to capabilities and tools that incorporate arrival, departure, and surface air-traffic operations concepts in a NextGen environment. As trajectory-based departure scheduling and collaborative decision making tools are introduced in order to reduce delays and uncertainties in taxi and climb operations across the National Airspace System, users across a number of roles benefit from a real time system that enables common situational awareness. In addition to shared situational awareness the dashboard offers the ability to compute real time metrics and analysis to inform users about capacity, predictability, and efficiency of the system as a whole. This paper describes the architecture of the real time dashboard as well as an initial set of metrics computed on operational data. The potential impact of the real time dashboard is studied at the site identified for initial deployment and demonstration in 2017; Charlotte-Douglas International Airport. Analysis and metrics computed in real time illustrate the opportunity to provide common situational awareness and inform users of metrics across delay, throughput, taxi time, and airport capacity. In addition, common awareness of delays and the impact of takeoff and departure restrictions stemming from traffic flow management initiatives are explored. The potential of the real time tool to inform the predictability and efficiency of using a trajectory-based departure scheduling system is also discussed.

  4. Presenting symptoms and onset-to-arrival time in patients with acute stroke and transient ischemic attack.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gargano, Julia Warner; Wehner, Susan; Reeves, Mathew J

    2011-11-01

    Delayed arrival to the emergency department (ED) precludes most stroke patients from receiving thrombolytic treatment. Our objective in this study was to examine the association between presenting symptoms and onset-to-arrival time (ie, time between onset of symptoms to arrival at the ED) in a statewide stroke registry. Demographics, clinical data, and presenting symptoms were collected for patients with acute stroke or symptomatic transient ischemic attack (TIA) admitted to 15 Michigan hospitals (n = 1922). Polytomous logistic regression models were developed to test the association between presenting symptoms and onset-to-arrival time (classified as 6 hours/unknown). Onset-to-arrival time was 6 hours/unknown in 59%. Unilateral symptoms (reported by 40%) and speech difficulties (reported by 22%) were associated with increased likelihood of arriving within 2 hours (unilateral: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-1.9; speech: aOR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.2). Difficulty with walking, balance, or dizziness (12%), confusion (9%), loss of consciousness (6.7%) and falls (3.4%) were associated with lower likelihood of arriving within 2 hours (walking: aOR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.4-1.0; confusion: aOR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3-0.8; consciousness: aOR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.1-0.9; falls: aOR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.3-0.9). Presenting symptoms were strongly associated with time of arrival; patients with unilateral symptoms and speech difficulties were more likely to seek care early. Future studies should consider including more specific patient-level data to identify psychosocial and behavioral aspects of recognition and action to stroke symptoms. Copyright © 2011 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A Novel Virtual Time Reversal Method for Passive Direction of Arrival Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongqing Fu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a new method to estimate the two-dimensional (2D direction of arrival (DOA (the azimuth angle and the elevation angle of electromagnetic signal emitted from a single communication station. This method is passive and accurate in the case of low signal-noise ratio (SNR based on the virtual time reversal (VTR theory. In order to illustrate its principle, the theoretical formulas of VTR direction finding with uniform circular array (UCA are derived firstly. Based on these formulas, the implementation scheme for estimating azimuth angle and elevation angle passively is then provided. In the derivation, the strict mathematical proof for compressing planar search area to a curve line is proposed, reducing the complexity of VTR algorithm greatly. Finally, the simulation experiments are performed to validate the performance of VTR algorithm. The results show that the VTR method is effective and it delivers accurate DOA estimation in the case of low SNR.

  6. The advantage of arriving first: characteristic times in finite size populations of error-prone replicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo Marín

    Full Text Available We study the evolution of a finite size population formed by mutationally isolated lineages of error-prone replicators in a two-peak fitness landscape. Computer simulations are performed to gain a stochastic description of the system dynamics. More specifically, for different population sizes, we compute the probability of each lineage being selected in terms of their mutation rates and the amplification factors of the fittest phenotypes. We interpret the results as the compromise between the characteristic time a lineage takes to reach its fittest phenotype by crossing the neutral valley and the selective value of the sequences that form the lineages. A main conclusion is drawn: for finite population sizes, the survival probability of the lineage that arrives first to the fittest phenotype rises significantly.

  7. Uncertainty in Bus Arrival Time Predictions: Treating Heteroscedasticity With a Metamodel Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    O'Sullivan, Aidan; Pereira, Francisco Camara; Zhao, Jinhua

    2016-01-01

    Arrival time predictions for the next available bus or train are a key component of modern traveler information systems (TISs). A great deal of research has been conducted within the intelligent transportation system community in developing an assortment of different algorithms that seek...... to increase the accuracy of these predictions. However, the inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of these systems, particularly in the case of bus transport, means that these predictions suffer from variable sources of error, stemming from variations in weather conditions, bus bunching, and numerous other...... of heteroscedasticity in the predictions is demonstrated and then a metamodel approach is deployed, which augments existing predictive systems using quantile regression to place bounds on the associated error. As a case study, this approach is applied to data from a real-world TIS in Boston. This method allows bounds...

  8. The Advantage of Arriving First: Characteristic Times in Finite Size Populations of Error-Prone Replicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marín, Arturo; Tejero, Héctor; Nuño, Juan Carlos; Montero, Francisco

    2013-01-01

    We study the evolution of a finite size population formed by mutationally isolated lineages of error-prone replicators in a two-peak fitness landscape. Computer simulations are performed to gain a stochastic description of the system dynamics. More specifically, for different population sizes, we compute the probability of each lineage being selected in terms of their mutation rates and the amplification factors of the fittest phenotypes. We interpret the results as the compromise between the characteristic time a lineage takes to reach its fittest phenotype by crossing the neutral valley and the selective value of the sequences that form the lineages. A main conclusion is drawn: for finite population sizes, the survival probability of the lineage that arrives first to the fittest phenotype rises significantly. PMID:24376656

  9. A novel time of arrival estimation algorithm using an energy detector receiver in MMW systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Xiaolin; Zhang, Hao; Lyu, Tingting; Xiao, Han; Gulliver, T. Aaron

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents a new time of arrival (TOA) estimation technique using an improved energy detection (ED) receiver based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in an impulse radio (IR) 60 GHz millimeter wave (MMW) system. A threshold is employed via analyzing the characteristics of the received energy values with an extreme learning machine (ELM). The effect of the channel and integration period on the TOA estimation is evaluated. Several well-known ED-based TOA algorithms are used to compare with the proposed technique. It is shown that this ELM-based technique has lower TOA estimation error compared to other approaches and provides robust performance with the IEEE 802.15.3c channel models.

  10. Augmented Lagrange Programming Neural Network for Localization Using Time-Difference-of-Arrival Measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Zifa; Leung, Chi Sing; So, Hing Cheung; Constantinides, Anthony George

    2017-08-15

    A commonly used measurement model for locating a mobile source is time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA). As each TDOA measurement defines a hyperbola, it is not straightforward to compute the mobile source position due to the nonlinear relationship in the measurements. This brief exploits the Lagrange programming neural network (LPNN), which provides a general framework to solve nonlinear constrained optimization problems, for the TDOA-based localization. The local stability of the proposed LPNN solution is also analyzed. Simulation results are included to evaluate the localization accuracy of the LPNN scheme by comparing with the state-of-the-art methods and the optimality benchmark of Cramér-Rao lower bound.

  11. Time-limited polling systems with batch arrivals and phase-type service times

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Al Hanbali, Ahmad; de Haan, Roland; Boucherie, Richardus J.; van Ommeren, Jan C.W.

    In this paper, we develop a general framework to analyze polling systems with either the autonomous-server or the time-limited service discipline. According to the autonomous-server discipline, the server continues servicing a queue for a certain period of time. According to the time-limited service

  12. Constrained Optimization of Average Arrival Time via a Probabilistic Approach to Transport Reliability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad-Reza Namazi-Rad

    Full Text Available To achieve greater transit-time reduction and improvement in reliability of transport services, there is an increasing need to assist transport planners in understanding the value of punctuality; i.e. the potential improvements, not only to service quality and the consumer but also to the actual profitability of the service. In order for this to be achieved, it is important to understand the network-specific aspects that affect both the ability to decrease transit-time, and the associated cost-benefit of doing so. In this paper, we outline a framework for evaluating the effectiveness of proposed changes to average transit-time, so as to determine the optimal choice of average arrival time subject to desired punctuality levels whilst simultaneously minimizing operational costs. We model the service transit-time variability using a truncated probability density function, and simultaneously compare the trade-off between potential gains and increased service costs, for several commonly employed cost-benefit functions of general form. We formulate this problem as a constrained optimization problem to determine the optimal choice of average transit time, so as to increase the level of service punctuality, whilst simultaneously ensuring a minimum level of cost-benefit to the service operator.

  13. Integrating Real-time Earthquakes into Natural Hazard Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlong, K. P.; Benz, H. M.; Whitlock, J. S.; Bittenbinder, A. N.; Bogaert, B. B.

    2001-12-01

    Natural hazard courses are playing an increasingly important role in college and university earth science curricula. Students' intrinsic curiosity about the subject and the potential to make the course relevant to the interests of both science and non-science students make natural hazards courses popular additions to a department's offerings. However, one vital aspect of "real-life" natural hazard management that has not translated well into the classroom is the real-time nature of both events and response. The lack of a way to entrain students into the event/response mode has made implementing such real-time activities into classroom activities problematic. Although a variety of web sites provide near real-time postings of natural hazards, students essentially learn of the event after the fact. This is particularly true for earthquakes and other events with few precursors. As a result, the "time factor" and personal responsibility associated with natural hazard response is lost to the students. We have integrated the real-time aspects of earthquake response into two natural hazard courses at Penn State (a 'general education' course for non-science majors, and an upper-level course for science majors) by implementing a modification of the USGS Earthworm system. The Earthworm Database Management System (E-DBMS) catalogs current global seismic activity. It provides earthquake professionals with real-time email/cell phone alerts of global seismic activity and access to the data for review/revision purposes. We have modified this system so that real-time response can be used to address specific scientific, policy, and social questions in our classes. As a prototype of using the E-DBMS in courses, we have established an Earthworm server at Penn State. This server receives national and global seismic network data and, in turn, transmits the tailored alerts to "on-duty" students (e-mail, pager/cell phone notification). These students are responsible to react to the alarm

  14. Theory of earthquakes interevent times applied to financial markets

    CERN Document Server

    Jagielski, Maciej; Sornette, Didier

    2016-01-01

    We analyze the probability density function (PDF) of waiting times between financial loss exceedances. The empirical PDFs are fitted with the self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson process with a long power law memory kernel. The Hawkes process the simplest extension of the Poisson process that takes into account how past events influence the occurrence of future events. By analyzing the empirical data for 15 different financial assets, we show that the formalism of the Hawkes process used for earthquakes can successfully model the PDF of interevent times between successive market losses.

  15. Theory of earthquakes interevent times applied to financial markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagielski, Maciej; Kutner, Ryszard; Sornette, Didier

    2017-10-01

    We analyze the probability density function (PDF) of waiting times between financial loss exceedances. The empirical PDFs are fitted with the self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson process with a long power law memory kernel. The Hawkes process is the simplest extension of the Poisson process that takes into account how past events influence the occurrence of future events. By analyzing the empirical data for 15 different financial assets, we show that the formalism of the Hawkes process used for earthquakes can successfully model the PDF of interevent times between successive market losses.

  16. Determinants of central processing order in psychological refractory period paradigms: central arrival times, detection times, or preparation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonhard, Tanja

    2011-10-01

    Three psychological refractory period (PRP) experiments were conducted to assess the effect of central arrival times at the bottleneck on task order scheduling. In Experiment 1, a visual first task (plus-minus symbol discrimination) was combined with an auditory second task (left-right tone judgement) in a standard PRP paradigm with constant task order. In Experiment 2, the order of the tasks varied unpredictably. In Experiment 3, visual-auditory dual-task trials were randomly mixed with single-task trials. To dissociate central arrival times from stimulus detection times, the perceptual stage of the visual task was extended using stimulus degradation. Most importantly, no evidence for a first-come, first-served principle at the central bottleneck was found with the employed paradigms. Instead, the results indicated that preparation (Experiment 1) and the detection times of the stimuli (Experiments 2 and 3) were the main determinants of central processing order in the present study. In the light of previous research, the results indicate that central processing order can be influenced by various factors. The interplay between these factors seems to depend highly on the conditions and requirements of the employed experimental paradigm.

  17. Measuring pulse times of arrival from broad-band pulsar observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, K.; Desvignes, G.; Cognard, I.; Stappers, B. W.; Verbiest, J. P. W.; Lee, K. J.; Champion, D. J.; Kramer, M.; Freire, P. C. C.; Karuppusamy, R.

    2014-10-01

    In recent years, instrumentation enabling pulsar observations with unprecedentedly high fractional bandwidth has been under development which can be used to substantially improve the precision of pulsar timing experiments. The traditional template-matching method used to calculate pulse times of arrival (ToAs) may not function effectively on these broad-band data due to a variety of effects such as diffractive scintillation in the interstellar medium, profile variation as a function of frequency, dispersion measure (DM) evolution, and so forth. In this paper, we describe the channelized discrete Fourier transform method that can greatly mitigate the influence of the aforementioned effects when measuring ToAs from broad-band timing data. The method is tested on simulated data, and its potential in improving timing precision is shown. We further apply the method to PSR J1909-3744 data collected at the Nançay Radio Telescope with the Nançay Ultimate Pulsar Processing Instrument. We demonstrate removal of systematics due to the scintillation effect as well as improvement on ToA measurement uncertainties. Our method also determines temporal variations in DM, which are consistent with multichannel timing approaches used earlier.

  18. 41 CFR 301-11.10 - Am I required to record departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... departure/arrival dates and times on my travel claim? 301-11.10 Section 301-11.10 Public Contracts and... dates and times on my travel claim? You must record the date of departure from, and arrival at, the... visited. You do not have to record departure/arrival times, but you must annotate your travel claim when...

  19. Strength statistics and the distribution of earthquake interevent times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristopulos, Dionissios T.; Mouslopoulou, Vasiliki

    2013-02-01

    The Weibull distribution is often used to model the earthquake interevent times distribution (ITD). We propose a link between the earthquake ITD on single faults with the Earth’s crustal shear strength distribution by means of a phenomenological stick-slip model. For single faults or fault systems with homogeneous strength statistics and power-law stress accumulation we obtain the Weibull ITD. We prove that the moduli of the interevent times and crustal shear strength are linearly related, while the time scale is an algebraic function of the scale of crustal shear strength. We also show that logarithmic stress accumulation leads to the log-Weibull ITD. We investigate deviations of the ITD tails from the Weibull model due to sampling bias, magnitude cutoff thresholds, and non-homogeneous strength parameters. Assuming the Gutenberg-Richter law and independence of the Weibull modulus on the magnitude threshold, we deduce that the interevent time scale drops exponentially with the magnitude threshold. We demonstrate that a microearthquake sequence from the island of Crete and a seismic sequence from Southern California conform reasonably well to the Weibull model.

  20. Improving perfusion quantification in arterial spin labeling for delayed arrival times by using optimized acquisition schemes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramme, Johanna [Fraunhofer MEVIS-Institute for Medical Image Computing, Bremen (Germany); Univ. Bremen (Germany). Faculty of Physics and Electronics; Gregori, Johannes [mediri GmbH, Heidelberg (Germany); Diehl, Volker [Fraunhofer MEVIS-Institute for Medical Image Computing, Bremen (Germany); ZEMODI (Zentrum fuer morderne Diagnostik), Bremen (Germany); Madai, Vince I.; Sobesky, Jan [Charite-Universitaetsmedizin Berlin (Germany). Center for Stroke Research Berlin (CSB); Charite-Universitaetsmedizin Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Neurology; Samson-Himmelstjerna, Frederico C. von [Fraunhofer MEVIS-Institute for Medical Image Computing, Bremen (Germany); Charite-Universitaetsmedizin Berlin (Germany). Center for Stroke Research Berlin (CSB); Charite-Universitaetsmedizin Berlin (Germany). Dept. of Neurology; Lentschig, Markus [ZEMODI (Zentrum fuer morderne Diagnostik), Bremen (Germany); Guenther, Matthias [Fraunhofer MEVIS-Institute for Medical Image Computing, Bremen (Germany); Univ. Bremen (Germany). Faculty of Physics and Electronics; mediri GmbH, Heidelberg (Germany)

    2015-07-01

    The improvement in Arterial Spin Labeling (ASL) perfusion quantification, especially for delayed bolus arrival times (BAT), with an acquisition redistribution scheme mitigating the T1 decay of the label in multi-TI ASL measurements is investigated. A multi inflow time (TI) 3D-GRASE sequence is presented which adapts the distribution of acquisitions accordingly, by keeping the scan time constant. The MR sequence increases the number of averages at long TIs and decreases their number at short TIs and thus compensating the T1 decay of the label. The improvement of perfusion quantification is evaluated in simulations as well as in-vivo in healthy volunteers and patients with prolonged BATs due to age or steno-occlusive disease. The improvement in perfusion quantification depends on BAT. At healthy BATs the differences are small, but become larger for longer BATs typically found in certain diseases. The relative error of perfusion is improved up to 30% at BATs > 1500 ms in comparison to the standard acquisition scheme. This adapted acquisition scheme improves the perfusion measurement in comparison to standard multi-TI ASL implementations. It provides relevant benefit in clinical conditions that cause prolonged BATs and is therefore of high clinical relevance for neuroimaging of steno-occlusive diseases.

  1. Anomalous astronomical time-latitude residuals: a potential earthquake precursor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Hui; Su, You-Jin; Gao, Yi-Fei; Wang, Rui

    2016-09-01

    The geophysical mechanism behind astronomical time-latitude residuals (ATLR) are discussed. The photoelectric astrolabe at Yunnan Observatory (YO) observed apparent synchronous anomalous ATLR before the Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake (EQ) in May 12, 2008 and the Lushan M7.0 EQ n April 20, 2013. We compared the ATLR from the YO photoelectric astrolabe and EQ data since 1976. Anomalous ATLR was observed before several strong EQs in the Yunnan Province. We believe the photoelectric astrolabe can be used to predict strong EQs and the anomalous ATLR are a potential EQ precursor.

  2. Modeling and experimental study to identify arrival-time jitter sources in the presence of a magnetic chicane

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Craievich

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The accurate and stable synchronization between electron bunch and external laser is a key requirement for the successful operation of an externally seeded free electron laser. This requirement is particularly stringent when the electron bunch is longitudinally compressed to sub-ps durations. We present an analytical description of the electron bunch arrival-time jitter that, supported by experimental evidence, allows the identification of specific, dominant jitter sources. The arrival-time jitter measurements were carried out as a function of the bunch length compression factor in FERMI@Elettra linac. The experimental behavior of the pulse-to-pulse time jitter agrees well both with the analytical predictions and particle tracking simulations. Our modeling takes into account the photoinjector laser arrival time on the cathode, the jitter of phases and voltages of the radio-frequency accelerator, and fluctuations of the compressor’s dipole field.

  3. Critical Time: Earthquake Response Planning and Schools. [Videotape].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DC.

    A videotape that describes what earthquakes are, and examines the disaster planning schools can develop during the first few minutes following an earthquake to assure students and staff survive. The kinds of destruction likely to happen during a damaging earthquake are highlighted. The videotape stresses the need for children and staff to know…

  4. Estimating permeability from quasi-static deformation: Temporal variations and arrival time inversion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vasco, D.W.; Ferretti, Alessandro; Novali, Fabrizio

    2008-05-01

    Transient pressure variations within a reservoir can be treated as a propagating front and analyzed using an asymptotic formulation. From this perspective one can define a pressure 'arrival time' and formulate solutions along trajectories, in the manner of ray theory. We combine this methodology and a technique for mapping overburden deformation into reservoir volume change as a means to estimate reservoir flow properties, such as permeability. Given the entire 'travel time' or phase field, obtained from the deformation data, we can construct the trajectories directly, there-by linearizing the inverse problem. A numerical study indicates that, using this approach, we can infer large-scale variations in flow properties. In an application to Interferometric Synthetic Aperture (InSAR) observations associated with a CO{sub 2} injection at the Krechba field, Algeria, we image pressure propagation to the northwest. An inversion for flow properties indicates a linear trend of high permeability. The high permeability correlates with a northwest trending fault on the flank of the anticline which defines the field.

  5. Fossil and genomic evidence constrains the timing of bison arrival in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froese, Duane; Stiller, Mathias; Heintzman, Peter D.; Reyes, Alberto V.; Zazula, Grant D.; Soares, André E. R.; Meyer, Matthias; Hall, Elizabeth; Jensen, Britta J. L.; Arnold, Lee J.; MacPhee, Ross D. E.; Shapiro, Beth

    2017-03-01

    The arrival of bison in North America marks one of the most successful large-mammal dispersals from Asia within the last million years, yet the timing and nature of this event remain poorly determined. Here, we used a combined paleontological and paleogenomic approach to provide a robust timeline for the entry and subsequent evolution of bison within North America. We characterized two fossil-rich localities in Canada’s Yukon and identified the oldest well-constrained bison fossil in North America, a 130,000-y-old steppe bison, Bison cf. priscus. We extracted and sequenced mitochondrial genomes from both this bison and from the remains of a recently discovered, ˜120,000-y-old giant long-horned bison, Bison latifrons, from Snowmass, Colorado. We analyzed these and 44 other bison mitogenomes with ages that span the Late Pleistocene, and identified two waves of bison dispersal into North America from Asia, the earliest of which occurred ˜195-135 thousand y ago and preceded the morphological diversification of North American bison, and the second of which occurred during the Late Pleistocene, ˜45-21 thousand y ago. This chronological arc establishes that bison first entered North America during the sea level lowstand accompanying marine isotope stage 6, rejecting earlier records of bison in North America. After their invasion, bison rapidly colonized North America during the last interglaciation, spreading from Alaska through continental North America; they have been continuously resident since then.

  6. A method for detecting crack wave arrival time and crack localization in a tunnel by using moving window technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Young Chul; Park, Tae Jin [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    Source localization in a dispersive medium has been carried out based on the time-of-arrival-differences (TOADs) method: a triangulation method and a circle intersection technique. Recent signal processing advances have led to calculation TOAD using a joint time-frequency analysis of the signal, where a short-time Fourier transform(STFT) and wavelet transform can be included as popular algorithms. The time-frequency analysis method is able to provide various information and more reliable results such as seismic-attenuation estimation, dispersive characteristics, a wave mode analysis, and temporal energy distribution of signals compared with previous methods. These algorithms, however, have their own limitations for signal processing. In this paper, the effective use of proposed algorithm in detecting crack wave arrival time and source localization in rock masses suggest that the evaluation and real-time monitoring on the intensity of damages related to the tunnels or other underground facilities is possible. Calculation of variances resulted from moving windows as a function of their size differentiates the signature from noise and from crack signal, which lead us to determine the crack wave arrival time. Then, the source localization is determined to be where the variance of crack wave velocities from real and virtual crack localization becomes a minimum. To validate our algorithm, we have performed experiments at the tunnel, which resulted in successful determination of the wave arrival time and crack localization.

  7. Design and Performance Evaluation on Ultra-Wideband Time-Of-Arrival 3D Tracking System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Jianjun; Arndt, Dickey; Ngo, Phong; Dusl, John

    2012-01-01

    A three-dimensional (3D) Ultra-Wideband (UWB) Time--of-Arrival (TOA) tracking system has been studied at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to provide the tracking capability inside the International Space Station (ISS) modules for various applications. One of applications is to locate and report the location where crew experienced possible high level of carbon-dioxide and felt upset. In order to accurately locate those places in a multipath intensive environment like ISS modules, it requires a robust real-time location system (RTLS) which can provide the required accuracy and update rate. A 3D UWB TOA tracking system with two-way ranging has been proposed and studied. The designed system will be tested in the Wireless Habitat Testbed which simulates the ISS module environment. In this presentation, we discuss the 3D TOA tracking algorithm and the performance evaluation based on different tracking baseline configurations. The simulation results show that two configurations of the tracking baseline are feasible. With 100 picoseconds standard deviation (STD) of TOA estimates, the average tracking error 0.2392 feet (about 7 centimeters) can be achieved for configuration Twisted Rectangle while the average tracking error 0.9183 feet (about 28 centimeters) can be achieved for configuration Slightly-Twisted Top Rectangle . The tracking accuracy can be further improved with the improvement of the STD of TOA estimates. With 10 picoseconds STD of TOA estimates, the average tracking error 0.0239 feet (less than 1 centimeter) can be achieved for configuration "Twisted Rectangle".

  8. Recent Comparisons of VHF Lightning Mapping Using Interferometry and Time-of-Arrival Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lojou, J.; Cummins, K. L.

    2005-12-01

    As part of Vaisala's technology and applications test bed in the Dallas-Fort Worth area in Texas, we have been operating two overlapping Total Lightning detection networks. One network employs VHF Interferometry (both 2- and 3-timensional instrumentation) and the other employs VHF 3-dimensional Time-Of-Arrival (TOA) techniques. For the first time, these two technologies can be compared and contrasted in a common region where they both exhibit good performance. The aim of the work presented is to evaluate the spatial and temporal "description" of lightning flashes provided by these two techniques, and to compare and contrast the relative strengths of these two approaches for Total Lightning mapping. This study employs data acquired during the summer of 2005. The analysis set includes data obtained by these two networks, as well as cloud-to-ground location data from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The spatial extent and vertical profile of sources from individual in-cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes are compared for various storm conditions, with both technologies clearly contributing supplemental information not provided by the other. Leader propagation velocities show a substantially unimodal distribution centered at about 105 m/s for TOA-derived sources, whereas the velocity distribution for sources detected using interferometry exhibit a bimodal distribution with the second mode at about 107 m/s. The most-probable interval-between-sources for TOA-derived sources seems to be a few milliseconds, whereas interferometry produces large populations with intervals near 100 microseconds and 100 milliseconds.

  9. Time of Arrival Estimation in Probability-Controlled Generalized CDMA Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hagit Messer

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, more and more wireless communications systems are required to provide also a positioning measurement. In code division multiple access (CDMA communication systems, the positioning accuracy is significantly degraded by the multiple access interference (MAI caused by other users in the system. This MAI is commonly managed by a power control mechanism, and yet, MAI has a major effect on positioning accuracy. Probability control is a recently introduced interference management mechanism. In this mechanism, a user with excess power chooses not to transmit some of its symbols. The information in the nontransmitted symbols is recovered by an error-correcting code (ECC, while all other users receive a more reliable data during these quiet periods. Previous research had shown that the implementation of a probability control mechanism can significantly reduce the MAI. In this paper, we show that probability control also improves the positioning accuracy. We focus on time-of-arrival (TOA based positioning systems. We analyze the TOA estimation performance in a generalized CDMA system, in which the probability control mechanism is employed, where the transmitted signal is noncontinuous with a symbol transmission probability smaller than 1. The accuracy of the TOA estimation is determined using appropriate modifications of the Cramer-Rao bound on the delay estimation. Keeping the average transmission power constant, we show that the TOA accuracy of each user does not depend on its transmission probability, while being a nondecreasing function of the transmission probability of any other user. Therefore, a generalized, noncontinuous CDMA system with a probability control mechanism can always achieve better positioning performance, for all users in the network, than a conventional, continuous, CDMA system.

  10. Arterial spin labelling reveals prolonged arterial arrival time in idiopathic Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Bachari, Sarah; Parkes, Laura M; Vidyasagar, Rishma; Hanby, Martha F; Tharaken, Vivek; Leroi, Iracema; Emsley, Hedley C A

    2014-01-01

    Idiopathic Parkinson's disease (IPD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disease, yet effective disease modifying treatments are still lacking. Neurodegeneration involves multiple interacting pathological pathways. The extent to which neurovascular mechanisms are involved is not well defined in IPD. We aimed to determine whether novel magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques, including arterial spin labelling (ASL) quantification of cerebral perfusion, can reveal altered neurovascular status (NVS) in IPD. Fourteen participants with IPD (mean ± SD age 65.1 ± 5.9 years) and 14 age and cardiovascular risk factor matched control participants (mean ± SD age 64.6 ± 4.2 years) underwent a 3T MRI scan protocol. ASL images were collected before, during and after a 6 minute hypercapnic challenge. FLAIR images were used to determine white matter lesion score. Quantitative images of cerebral blood flow (CBF) and arterial arrival time (AAT) were calculated from the ASL data both at rest and during hypercapnia. Cerebrovascular reactivity (CVR) images were calculated, depicting the change in CBF and AAT relative to the change in end-tidal CO2. A significant (p = 0.005) increase in whole brain averaged baseline AAT was observed in IPD participants (mean ± SD age 1532 ± 138 ms) compared to controls (mean ± SD age 1335 ± 165 ms). Voxel-wise analysis revealed this to be widespread across the brain. However, there were no statistically significant differences in white matter lesion score, CBF, or CVR between patients and controls. Regional CBF, but not AAT, in the IPD group was found to correlate positively with Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA) scores. These findings provide further evidence of alterations in NVS in IPD.

  11. Remark about Transition Probabilities Calculation for Single Server Queues with Lognormal Inter-Arrival or Service Time Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Moon Ho; Dudin, Alexander; Shaban, Alexy; Pokhrel, Subash Shree; Ma, Wen Ping

    Formulae required for accurate approximate calculation of transition probabilities of embedded Markov chain for single-server queues of the GI/M/1, GI/M/1/K, M/G/1, M/G/1/K type with heavy-tail lognormal distribution of inter-arrival or service time are given.

  12. Practical solutions to the aircraft minimum fuel, fixed-range, fixed time-of-arrival trajectory optimization problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, J. A.; Waters, M. H.

    1980-01-01

    A practical scheme is presented for generating fixed range, minimum fuel vertical flight profiles that also satisfy time-of-arrival constraints. The resulting algorithm is suitable for incorporation into an on-board flight management system. Example results show that such a capability can save up to 6% of fuel burned in flights subject to delays because of terminal area congestion.

  13. Ionospheric disturbances around the time of the Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhou Yiyan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Variations of Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC in the ionosphere are investigated around the time of the Ms7. 0 Lushan earthquake. A time-series analysis shows an anomalous VTEC increase 15 days before as well as some anomalous VTEC decreases 5 days before and 8 hours after the earthquake. Each of these anomalies lasted more than 4 hours and drifted from east to west. The anomalous increase 15 days before the earthquake is significantly larger than the solar-terrestrial background noise, and is thus considered to be probably related to the earthquake.

  14. Stochastic Stick - Slip Model Linking Crustal Shear Strength and Earthquake Interevent Times

    OpenAIRE

    Dionissios T. Hristopulos; V. Mouslopoulou

    2012-01-01

    The current understanding of the earthquake interevent times distribution (ITD) is incomplete. The Weibull distribution is often used to model the earthquake ITD. We link the earthquake ITD on single faults with the Earth's crustal shear strength distribution by means of a phenomenological stick - slip model. We obtain Weibull ITD for power-law stress accumulation, i.e., $\\sigma(t) = \\alpha t^{\\beta}$, where $\\beta >0$ for single faults or systems with homogeneous strength statistics. We show...

  15. Is Your Class a Natural Disaster? It can be... The Real Time Earthquake Education (RTEE) System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitlock, J. S.; Furlong, K.

    2003-12-01

    In cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) in Golden, Colorado, we have implemented an autonomous version of the NEIC's real-time earthquake database management and earthquake alert system (Earthworm). This is the same system used professionally by the USGS in its earthquake response operations. Utilizing this system, Penn State University students participating in natural hazard classes receive real-time alerts of worldwide earthquake events on cell phones distributed to the class. The students are then responsible for reacting to actual earthquake events, in real-time, with the same data (or lack thereof) as earthquake professionals. The project was first implemented in Spring 2002, and although it had an initial high intrigue and "coolness" factor, the interest of the students waned with time. Through student feedback, we observed that scientific data presented on its own without an educational context does not foster student learning. In order to maximize the impact of real-time data and the accompanying e-media, the students need to become personally involved. Therefore, in collaboration with the Incorporated Research Institutes of Seismology (IRIS), we have begun to develop an online infrastructure that will help teachers and faculty effectively use real-time earthquake information. The Real-Time Earthquake Education (RTEE) website promotes student learning by integrating inquiry-based education modules with real-time earthquake data. The first module guides the students through an exploration of real-time and historic earthquake datasets to model the most important criteria for determining the potential impact of an earthquake. Having provided the students with content knowledge in the first module, the second module presents a more authentic, open-ended educational experience by setting up an earthquake role-play situation. Through the Earthworm system, we have the ability to "set off

  16. Earthquake simulations with time-dependent nucleation and long-range interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. Dieterich

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available A model for rapid simulation of earthquake sequences is introduced which incorporates long-range elastic interactions among fault elements and time-dependent earthquake nucleation inferred from experimentally derived rate- and state-dependent fault constitutive properties. The model consists of a planar two-dimensional fault surface which is periodic in both the x- and y-directions. Elastic interactions among fault elements are represented by an array of elastic dislocations. Approximate solutions for earthquake nucleation and dynamics of earthquake slip are introduced which permit computations to proceed in steps that are determined by the transitions from one sliding state to the next. The transition-driven time stepping and avoidance of systems of simultaneous equations permit rapid simulation of large sequences of earthquake events on computers of modest capacity, while preserving characteristics of the nucleation and rupture propagation processes evident in more detailed models. Earthquakes simulated with this model reproduce many of the observed spatial and temporal characteristics of clustering phenomena including foreshock and aftershock sequences. Clustering arises because the time dependence of the nucleation process is highly sensitive to stress perturbations caused by nearby earthquakes. Rate of earthquake activity following a prior earthquake decays according to Omori's aftershock decay law and falls off with distance.

  17. Weighing Scale-Based Pulse Transit Time is a Superior Marker of Blood Pressure than Conventional Pulse Arrival Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Stephanie L.-O.; Carek, Andrew M.; Kim, Chang-Sei; Ashouri, Hazar; Inan, Omer T.; Hahn, Jin-Oh; Mukkamala, Ramakrishna

    2016-12-01

    Pulse transit time (PTT) is being widely pursued for cuff-less blood pressure (BP) monitoring. Most efforts have employed the time delay between ECG and finger photoplethysmography (PPG) waveforms as a convenient surrogate of PTT. However, these conventional pulse arrival time (PAT) measurements include the pre-ejection period (PEP) and the time delay through small, muscular arteries and may thus be an unreliable marker of BP. We assessed a bathroom weighing scale-like system for convenient measurement of ballistocardiography and foot PPG waveforms - and thus PTT through larger, more elastic arteries - in terms of its ability to improve tracking of BP in individual subjects. We measured “scale PTT”, conventional PAT, and cuff BP in humans during interventions that increased BP but changed PEP and smooth muscle contraction differently. Scale PTT tracked the diastolic BP changes well, with correlation coefficient of -0.80 ± 0.02 (mean ± SE) and root-mean-squared-error of 7.6 ± 0.5 mmHg after a best-case calibration. Conventional PAT was significantly inferior in tracking these changes, with correlation coefficient of -0.60 ± 0.04 and root-mean-squared-error of 14.6 ± 1.5 mmHg (p < 0.05). Scale PTT also tracked the systolic BP changes better than conventional PAT but not to an acceptable level. With further development, scale PTT may permit reliable, convenient measurement of BP.

  18. YO!-A Time-of-Arrival Receiver for Removal of Femtosecond Helicity-Correlated Beam Effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John Musson; Trent Allison; Arne Freyberger; Joachim Kuhn; Brian Quinn

    2004-05-02

    The G0 parity violation experiment at Jefferson Lab is based on time-of-flight measurements, and is sensitive to timing effects between the two electron helicity states of the beam. Photon counters triggered by time-of-arrival at the target mandate that timing must be independent of delays associated with different orbits taken by the two helicity states. In addition, the standard 499 MHz beam structure is altered such that 1 of every 16 microbunches are filled, resulting in an arrival frequency of 31.1875 (31) MHz, and an average current of 40 {micro}A. Helicity correction involves identifying and tracking the 31 MHz subharmonic, applying a fast/fine phase correction, and finally producing a clean 31 MHz trigger and a 499 MHz clock train. These signals are phase-matched to the beam arrival at the target on the order of femtoseconds. The 10 kHz output bandwidth is sufficiently greater than the 30 Hz helicity flip settling time (500 {micro}s). This permits the system to correct each helicity bin for any orbit-induced timing inequalities. A sampling phase detection scheme is used in order to eliminate the unavoidable 2n/n phase shifts associated with frequency dividers. Conventional receiver architecture and DSP techniques are combined for maximum sensitivity, bandwidth, and flexibility. Results of bench tests, commissioning and production data will be presented.

  19. Combining Real-Time Seismic and GPS Data for Earthquake Early Warning (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boese, M.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.

    2013-12-01

    Scientists at Caltech, UC Berkeley, the Univ. of SoCal, the Univ. of Washington, the US Geological Survey, and ETH Zurich have developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) demonstration system for California and the Pacific Northwest. To quickly determine the earthquake magnitude and location, 'ShakeAlert' currently processes and interprets real-time data-streams from ~400 seismic broadband and strong-motion stations within the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). Based on these parameters, the 'UserDisplay' software predicts and displays the arrival and intensity of shaking at a given user site. Real-time ShakeAlert feeds are currently shared with around 160 individuals, companies, and emergency response organizations to educate potential users about EEW and to identify needs and applications of EEW in a future operational warning system. Recently, scientists at the contributing institutions have started to develop algorithms for ShakeAlert that make use of high-rate real-time GPS data to improve the magnitude estimates for large earthquakes (M>6.5) and to determine slip distributions. Knowing the fault slip in (near) real-time is crucial for users relying on or operating distributed systems, such as for power, water or transportation, especially if these networks run close to or across large faults. As shown in an earlier study, slip information is also useful to predict (in a probabilistic sense) how far a fault rupture will propagate, thus enabling more robust probabilistic ground-motion predictions at distant locations. Finally, fault slip information is needed for tsunami warning, such as in the Cascadia subduction-zone. To handle extended fault-ruptures of large earthquakes in real-time, Caltech and USGS Pasadena are currently developing and testing a two-step procedure that combines seismic and geodetic data; in the first step, high-frequency strong-motion amplitudes are used to rapidly classify near-and far-source stations. Then, the location and

  20. Arrival time pattern and waiting time distribution of patients in the emergency outpatient department of a tertiary level health care institution of North India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yogesh Tiwari

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Emergency Department (ED of tertiary health care institute in India is mostly overcrowded, over utilized and inappropriately staffed. The challenges of overcrowded EDs and ill-managed patient flow and admission processes result in excessively long waits for patients. Aim: The objective of the present study was to analyze the patient flow system by assessing the arrival and waiting time distribution of patients in an Emergency out Patient Department (EOPD. Materials and Methods: This short cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted in the EOPD of a Tertiary level health care Institution in North India in the month of May, 2011. The data was obtained from 591 patients, who were present in the EOPD during the month of May, 2011. The waiting time, inter arrival time between two consecutive patients were calculated in addition to the daily census data (discharge rate, admission rate and transfer out rates etc. of the emergency. Results: Arrival time pattern of patients in the EOPD was highly stochastic with the peak arrival hours to be "9.00-12.00 h" in which around 26.3% patients arrived in the EOPD. The primary waiting areas of patients included patients "under observation" (29.6%; "waiting for routine diagnostic tests" (16.4% and "waiting for discharge" (14.6%. Around 71% patients were waiting due to reasons within emergency complex. Conclusion: The patient flow of the ED could only be addressed by multifaceted, multidisciplinary and hospital wide approach.

  1. Time-series analysis of earthquake sequences by means of information recognizer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, E. E.; Saravia, G.; Pastén, D.; Muñoz, V.

    2017-08-01

    Three seismic sequences of several thousand earthquakes each are analyzed by means of a tunable information recognizer known as wlzip. These sequences are different both in the geographical coverage and the time span, including earthquakes of magnitude larger than 8.0. The main variable under scrutiny here is the time interval between consecutive events. Two parameters (mutability and interval dilation) are defined for each sequence, which relate to the information contained in it. In this way it is possible to characterize different regimes in the seismic activity. For instance, mutability increases before large earthquakes and decreases sharply immediately after each of these events. On the other hand, interval dilation reaches a clear maximum several months before major earthquakes, while it decreases to its lowest possible value after such earthquakes during the aftershock regime. Extensions of the application of this new method to other problems in seismicity are mentioned.

  2. THE NANOGRAV NINE-YEAR DATA SET: OBSERVATIONS, ARRIVAL TIME MEASUREMENTS, AND ANALYSIS OF 37 MILLISECOND PULSARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arzoumanian, Zaven [Center for Research and Exploration in Space Science and Technology and X-Ray Astrophysics Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 662, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Brazier, Adam; Chatterjee, Shami; Cordes, James M.; Dolch, Timothy [Department of Astronomy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States); Burke-Spolaor, Sarah; Demorest, Paul B. [National Radio Astronomy Observatory, P.O. Box O, Socorro, NM 87801 (United States); Chamberlin, Sydney [Center for Gravitation, Cosmology and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, P.O. Box 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201 (United States); Christy, Brian [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Franklin and Marshall College, P.O. Box 3003, Lancaster, PA 17604 (United States); Cornish, Neil [Department of Physics, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717 (United States); Crowter, Kathryn; Fonseca, Emmanuel; Gonzalez, Marjorie E. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia, 6224 Agricultural Road, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1 (Canada); Ellis, Justin A. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Dr. Pasadena CA 91109 (United States); Ferdman, Robert D.; Kaspi, Victoria M. [Department of Physics, McGill University, 3600 rue Universite, Montreal, QC H3A 2T8 (Canada); Garver-Daniels, Nathan; Jones, Megan L. [Department of Physics, West Virginia University, P.O. Box 6315, Morgantown, WV 26505 (United States); Jenet, Fredrick A. [Center for Gravitational Wave Astronomy, University of Texas at Brownsville, Brownsville, TX 78520 (United States); Jones, Glenn, E-mail: pdemores@nrao.edu [Department of Physics, Columbia University, 550 W. 120th St. New York, NY 10027 (United States); Collaboration: NANOGrav Collaboration; and others

    2015-11-01

    We present high-precision timing observations spanning up to nine years for 37 millisecond pulsars monitored with the Green Bank and Arecibo radio telescopes as part of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project. We describe the observational and instrumental setups used to collect the data, and methodology applied for calculating pulse times of arrival; these include novel methods for measuring instrumental offsets and characterizing low signal-to-noise ratio timing results. The time of arrival data are fit to a physical timing model for each source, including terms that characterize time-variable dispersion measure and frequency-dependent pulse shape evolution. In conjunction with the timing model fit, we have performed a Bayesian analysis of a parameterized timing noise model for each source, and detect evidence for excess low-frequency, or “red,” timing noise in 10 of the pulsars. For 5 of these cases this is likely due to interstellar medium propagation effects rather than intrisic spin variations. Subsequent papers in this series will present further analysis of this data set aimed at detecting or limiting the presence of nanohertz-frequency gravitational wave signals.

  3. Expanding Horizons in Mitigating Earthquake Related Disasters in Urban Areas: Global Development of Real-Time Seismology

    OpenAIRE

    Utkucu, Murat; Küyük, Hüseyin Serdar; Demir, İsmail Hakkı

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Real-time seismology is a newly developing alternative approach in seismology to mitigate earthquake hazard. It exploits up-to-date advances in seismic instrument technology, data acquisition, digital communications and computer systems for quickly transforming data into earthquake information in real-time to reduce earthquake losses and its impact on social and economic life in the earthquake prone densely populated urban and industrial areas.  Real-time seismology systems are not o...

  4. Earthquake recurrence on the south Hayward fault is most consistent with a time dependent, renewal process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, T.

    2008-01-01

    Elastic rebound and stress renewal are important components of earthquake forecasting because if large earthquakes can be shown to be periodic, then rupture probability is time dependent. While renewal models are used in formal forecasts, it has not been possible to exclude the alternate view that repeated large earthquakes can happen in rapid succession without requiring time for stress regeneration. Here a consistency test between time dependent and time independent recurrence distributions is made using a Monte Carlo method to replicate the paleoseismic series on the south Hayward fault. Time dependent distributions with recurrence interval of 210 years and coefficient of variation of 0.6 reproduce the event series on the south Hayward 5 times more often than any exponential distribution: a highly significant difference as determined using a two-tailed Z-test for relative proportions. Therefore large Hayward fault earthquakes are quasi-periodic and are most consistent with a stress renewal process.

  5. Central Asia earthquake catalogue from ancient time to 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya N. Mikhailova

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we present the seismic catalogue compiled for Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in the framework of the Earthquake Model Central Asia (EMCA project. The catalogue from 2000 B.C. to 2009 A.D. is composed by 33,034 earthquakes in the MLH magnitude (magnitude by surface waves on horizontal components widely used in practice of the former USSR countries range from 1.5 to 8.3. The catalogue includes both macroseimic and instrumental constrained data, with about 32,793 earthquake after 1900 A.D. The main sources and procedure used to compile the catalogues are discussed, and the comparison with the ISC-GEM catalogue presented. Magnitude of completeness analysis shows that the catalogue is complete down to magnitude 4 from 1959 and to magnitude 7 from 1873, whereas the obtained regional b value is 0.805.

  6. Connecting speeds, directions and arrival times of 22 coronal mass ejections from the sun to 1 AU

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Möstl, C.; Veronig, A. M.; Rollett, T.; Temmer, M.; Peinhart, V. [Kanzelhöhe Observatory-IGAM, Institute of Physics, University of Graz (Austria); Amla, K.; Hall, J. R.; Liewer, P. C.; De Jong, E. M. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Colaninno, R. C. [Space Sciences Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC (United States); Davies, J. A.; Harrison, R. A. [RAL Space, Harwell Oxford, Didcot (United Kingdom); Lugaz, N.; Farrugia, C. J.; Galvin, A. B. [Space Science Center and Department of Physics, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States); Liu, Y. D. [State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Luhmann, J. G. [Space Science Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Vršnak, B., E-mail: christian.moestl@uni-graz.at [Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb, Kačićeva 26, HR-10000, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2014-06-01

    Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front- and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to 2700 km s{sup –1}). We track the CMEs to 34.9 ± 7.1 deg elongation from the Sun with J maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of –26.4 ± 15.3 hr. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (fixed-Φ, harmonic mean, self-similar expansion) and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is 8.1 ± 6.3 hr (rms value of 10.9 hr). Speeds are consistent to within 284 ± 288 km s{sup –1}. Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to 6.1 ± 5.0 hr (rms value of 7.9 hr), and for the speeds to 53 ± 50 km s{sup –1}. These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.

  7. Current progress in using multiple electromagnetic indicators to determine location, time, and magnitude of earthquakes in California and Peru (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleier, T. E.; Dunson, C.; Roth, S.; Heraud, J.; Freund, F. T.; Dahlgren, R.; Bryant, N.; Bambery, R.; Lira, A.

    2010-12-01

    Since ultra-low frequency (ULF) magnetic anomalies were discovered prior to the 1989 Loma Prieta, Ca. M7.0 earthquake, QuakeFinder, a small R&D group based in Palo Alto California has systematically monitored ULF magnetic signals with a network of 3-axis induction magnetometers since 2000 in California. This raw magnetometer data was collected at 20-50 samples per sec., with no preprocessing, in an attempt to collect an accurate time history of electromagnetic waveforms prior to, during, and after large earthquakes within 30 km. of these sensors. Finally in October 2007, the QuakeFinder team observed a series of strange magnetic pulsations at the Alum Rock, California site, 14 days prior to M5.4 earthquake. These magnetic signals observed were relatively short, random pulsations, not continuous waveform signals like Pc1 or Pc3 micropulsations. The magnetic pulses have a characteristic uni-polar shapes and 0.5 sec. to 30 sec. durations, much longer than lightning signals. In May of 2010, very similar pulses were observed at Tacna, Peru, 13 days prior to a M6.2 earthquake, using a QuakeFinder station jointly operated under collaboration with the Catholic University in Lima Peru (PUCP). More examples of these pulsations were sought, and a historical review of older California magnetic data discovered fewer but similar pulsations occurred at the Hollister, Ca. site operated by UC Berkeley (e.g. San Juan Bautista M5.1 earthquake on August 12, 1998). Further analysis of the direction of arrival of the magnetic pulses showed an interesting “azimuth clustering” observed in both Alum Rock, Ca. and Tacna, Peru data. The complete time series of the Alum Rock data allowed the team to analyze subsequent changes observed in magnetometer “filter banks” (0.001 Hz to 10 Hz filter bands, similar to those used by Fraser-Smith in 1989), but this time using time-adjusted limits based on time of day, time of year, Kp, and site background noise. These site-customized limits

  8. Photonic approach to the simultaneous measurement of the frequency, amplitude, pulse width, and time of arrival of a microwave signal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Shilong; Fu, Jianbin; Yao, Jianping

    2012-01-01

    A photonic approach to the simultaneous measurement of the frequency, pulse amplitude (PA), pulse width (PW), and time of arrival (TOA) of an unknown pulsed microwave signal is proposed and demonstrated. The measurement is performed based on optical carrier-suppressed modulation, complementary optical filtering, low-speed photodetection, and electrical signal processing. A proof-of-concept experiment is carried out. A frequency measurement range of 2-11 GHz with a measurement error for frequency, PA, PW, and TOA within ±0.1 GHz, ±0.05 V, ±1 ns, and ±0.16 ns is achieved. © 2012 Optical Society of America

  9. The Effect of Integration Policies on the Time until Regular Employment of Newly Arrived Immigrants: Evidence from Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Jens; Heinesen, Eskil; Hummelgaard, Hans

    2009-01-01

    We analyse the effect of active labour-market programmes on the hazard rate into regular employment for newly arrived immigrants using the timing-of-events duration model. We take account of language course participation and progression in destination country language skills. We use rich...... administrative data from Denmark. We find substantial lock-in effects of participation in active labour-market programmes. Post programme effects on the hazard rate to regular employment are significantly positive for wage subsidy programmes, but not for other types of programmes. For language course...... participants, improvement in language proficiency has significant and substantial positive effects on the hazard rate to employment....

  10. Today and Tomorrow of the Real-time Earthquake Information Equipment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Y.

    2003-12-01

    UrEDAS, Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System, can realize the real-time early earthquake detection and alarm system in the world. Although this system is actually working for mostly railroad relations, such as the Shinkansen and subway lines, it is not the system limited to the railroad field. For example, there is a local government that has realized a tsunami warning system using real-time estimated earthquake parameters as magnitude and location, distributed by UrEDAS. UrEDAS is characterized by the serial processing without storage of seismic waveform for processing. For this reason, the procedure of data processing hardly changes with usual operation also in case of an earthquake, so the system does not carry out a system failure in case of an earthquake. And also UrEDAS does not require a network and is an autonomous distributed system strong against a natural disaster or cyber-terrorism. On 26 May 2003, the Sanriku-Minami earthquake of Mj 7.0 was occurred. It was so large that the maximum acceleration of about 600 Gal was observed along the Shinkansen line and 22 columns of the rigid frame viaducts (RC) were severely cracked. This earthquake occurred on the business hours of the Shinkansen. As expected, coastline _gCompact UrEDAS_h took out the early P wave alarm before the destructive earthquake motion and the validity of this system was proved for the first time. UrEDAS on the place where many faults exist has a problem in accuracy, especially for the epicentral azimuth. UrEDAS has been observing to consider on the situations of operation under such an unfavorable condition and tried to shorten the calculation time and improve the accuracy. On the other hand, UrEDAS has examined to distribute the earthquake information via Internet. At the time of Colima, Mexico earthquake on January 2003, UrEDAS in Mexico City detected this earthquake over one minute before the large motion and sent an information for persons concerned. The above systems are large

  11. IEEE 802.15.4 ZigBee-Based Time-of-Arrival Estimation for Wireless Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheon, Jeonghyeon; Hwang, Hyunsu; Kim, Dongsun; Jung, Yunho

    2016-02-05

    Precise time-of-arrival (TOA) estimation is one of the most important techniques in RF-based positioning systems that use wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Because the accuracy of TOA estimation is proportional to the RF signal bandwidth, using broad bandwidth is the most fundamental approach for achieving higher accuracy. Hence, ultra-wide-band (UWB) systems with a bandwidth of 500 MHz are commonly used. However, wireless systems with broad bandwidth suffer from the disadvantages of high complexity and high power consumption. Therefore, it is difficult to employ such systems in various WSN applications. In this paper, we present a precise time-of-arrival (TOA) estimation algorithm using an IEEE 802.15.4 ZigBee system with a narrow bandwidth of 2 MHz. In order to overcome the lack of bandwidth, the proposed algorithm estimates the fractional TOA within the sampling interval. Simulation results show that the proposed TOA estimation algorithm provides an accuracy of 0.5 m at a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 8 dB and achieves an SNR gain of 5 dB as compared with the existing algorithm. In addition, experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm provides accurate TOA estimation in a real indoor environment.

  12. First passage and arrival time densities for Levy flights and the failure of the method of images

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chechkin, Aleksei V [Institute for Theoretical Physics NSC KIPT, Akademicheskaya st. 1, 61108 Kharkov (Ukraine); Metzler, Ralf [NORDITA, Blegdamsvej 17, DK-2100 Copenhagen (Denmark); Gonchar, Vsevolod Y [Institute for Theoretical Physics NSC KIPT, Akademicheskaya st. 1, 61108 Kharkov (Ukraine); Klafter, Joseph [School of Chemistry, Tel Aviv University, 69978 Tel Aviv (Israel); Tanatarov, Leonid V [Institute for Theoretical Physics NSC KIPT, Akademicheskaya st. 1, 61108 Kharkov (Ukraine)

    2003-10-17

    We discuss the first passage time problem in the semi-infinite interval, for homogeneous stochastic Markov processes with Levy stable jump length distributions {lambda}(x) {approx} l{sup {alpha}}/vertical bar x vertical bar{sup 1+{alpha}} (vertical bar x vertical bar >> l), namely, Levy flights (LFs). In particular, we demonstrate that the method of images leads to a result, which violates a theorem due to Sparre Andersen, according to which an arbitrary continuous and symmetric jump length distribution produces a first passage time density (FPTD) governed by the universal long-time decay {approx}t{sup -3/2}. Conversely, we show that for LFs the direct definition known from Gaussian processes in fact defines the probability density of first arrival, which for LFs differs from the FPTD. Our findings are corroborated by numerical results. (letter to the editor)

  13. Near-real-time Earthquake Notification and Response in the Classroom: Exploiting the Teachable Moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlong, K. P.; Whitlock, J. S.; Benz, H. M.

    2002-12-01

    Earthquakes occur globally, on a regular but (as yet) non-predictable basis, and their effects are both dramatic and often devastating. Additionally they serve as a primary tool to image the earth and define the active processes that drive tectonics. As a result, earthquakes can be an extremely effective tool for helping students to learn about active earth processes, natural hazards, and the myriad of issues that arise with non-predictable but potentially devastating natural events. We have developed and implemented a real-time earthquake alert system (EAS) built on the USGS Earthworm system to bring earthquakes into the classroom. Through our EAS, students in our General Education class on Natural Hazards (Earth101 - Natural Disasters: Hollywood vs. Reality) participate in earthquake response activities in ways similar to earthquake hazard professionals - they become part of the response to the event. Our implementation of the Earthworm system allows our students to be paged via cell-phone text messaging (Yes, we provide cell phones to the 'duty seismologists'), and they respond to those pages as appropriate for their role. A parallel web server is maintained that provides the earthquake details (location maps, waveforms etc.) and students produce time-critical output such as news releases, analyses of earthquake trends in the region, and reports detailing implications of the events. Since this is a course targeted at non-science majors, we encourage that they bring their own expertise into the analyses. For example, business of economic majors may investigate the economic impacts of an earthquake, secondary education majors may work on teaching modules based on the information they gather etc. Since the students know that they are responding to real events they develop ownership of the information they gather and they recognize the value of real-time response. Our educational goals in developing this system include: (1) helping students develop a sense of the

  14. OPTIMIZING TIME WINDOWS FOR MANAGING ARRIVALS OF EXPORT CONTAINERS AT CHINESE CONTAINER TERMINALS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Gang; Yang, Zhongzhen

    2009-01-01

      Managing the truck transport in a port area is important for Chinese container ports as heavy traffic congestion not only limits the terminal capacity but also generates serious air pollution. This paper explores an effective way to manage the truck traffic of export containers based on a time...... of driver and truck waiting time, the cost of container cargo storage time, the truck idle cost and terminal yard fee. Secondly, to minimize the costs, a heuristic is developed based on a genetic algorithm to optimize the time window arrangement. The optimal solution involves the position and the length...... of each time window. Finally, the heuristic is applied to a Chinese container terminal, and the result indicates that the optimization of time windows can successfully flatten the peak of truck traffic of export containers, which is the primary reason of road traffic congestion in port areas....

  15. Optimizing Time Windows For Managing Export Container Arrivals At Chinese Container Terminals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Gang; Yang, Zhongzhen

    2010-01-01

    Management of truck transport in a port area is important for Chinese container ports as heavy traffic congestion not only limits the terminal capacity but also generates serious air pollution. This paper explores an effective way to manage the truck traffic of export containers based on a time...... and the length of each time window. Finally, the model and the heuristic are tested using real data from a Chinese container terminal, and the result indicates that optimization of the time window can effectively flatten the peak traffic of export container trucks - one of the primary causes of road traffic...

  16. Constrained Optimization of Average Arrival Time via a Probabilistic Approach to Transport Reliability

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Namazi-Rad, Mohammad-Reza; Dunbar, Michelle; Ghaderi, Hadi; Mokhtarian, Payam

    2015-01-01

    To achieve greater transit-time reduction and improvement in reliability of transport services, there is an increasing need to assist transport planners in understanding the value of punctuality; i.e...

  17. Modeling and Performance Evaluation of Early Arrival Discrete Time Queueing System with Load Balancing Using Geometrical Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Asif AliShah

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Load balancing is an efficient technique used to maximize throughput, optimal resource utilization, minimized response time and avoiding congestion. This can be achieved by distributing the workload evenly across two or more network stations, nodes or buffers, links, central processing units, hard drives, or other resources. In this paper, we have modeled and developed a load balancing approach in a discrete-time domain to analyze and evaluate the system of finite network buffers using an early arrival system. Our approach of modeling such a system consists of two steps. The first step is the determination of all system-state stages and their corresponding transition probabilities. Next, we compute various performance measures by utilizing the system state transition probabilities for its steady-state behavior.

  18. Factors associated with hospital arrival time after the onset of stroke ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on history of stroke occurrence and time taken to present to hospital. Data was analysed for means, frequencies, percentages and Odds ratios. Results: Less than half (33%) of the participants were able to recognize symptoms of stroke. Not having money to ...

  19. An Exact Solution of the Gamma Ray Burst Arrival Time Analysis ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... and Astronomy has moved to Continuous Article Publishing (CAP) mode. This means that each accepted article is being published immediately online with DOI and article citation ID with starting page number 1. Articles are also visible in Web of Science immediately. All these have helped shorten the publication time and ...

  20. Underwater Localization by combining Time-of-Flight and Direction-of-Arrival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kleunen, W.A.P.; Blom, K.C.H.; Meratnia, Nirvana; Kokkeler, Andre B.J.; Havinga, Paul J.M.; Smit, Gerardus Johannes Maria

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present a combined ToF and DoA localization approach suitable for shallow underwater monitoring applications such as harbor monitoring. Our localization approach combines one-way ranging and DoA estimation to calculate both position and time-synchronization of the blind-node. We

  1. Reasons for referrals and time spent from referring sites to arrival at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Problems associated with emergency obstetrics referrals often cause serious life threatening conditions. Objective: The objective was to determine the reasons and conditions in emergency obstetrics referrals and the time spent in the process of referral. Methods: A prospective study was conducted in a Federal ...

  2. Development of the town data base: Estimates of exposure rates and times of fallout arrival near the Nevada Test Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thompson, C.B.; McArthur, R.D. [Univ. and Community College System of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Hutchinson, S.W. [Mead Johnson Nutritional Group, Evansville, IN (United States)

    1994-09-01

    As part of the U.S. Department of Energy`s Off-Site Radiation Exposure Review Project, the time of fallout arrival and the H+12 exposure rate were estimated for populated locations in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Utah that were affected by fallout from one or more nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site. Estimates of exposure rate were derived from measured values recorded before and after each test by fallout monitors in the field. The estimate for a given location was obtained by retrieving from a data base all measurements made in the vicinity, decay-correcting them to H+12, and calculating an average. Estimates were also derived from maps produced after most events that show isopleths of exposure rate and time of fallout arrival. Both sets of isopleths on these maps were digitized, and kriging was used to interpolate values at the nodes of a 10-km grid covering the pattern. The values at any location within the grid were then estimated from the values at the surrounding grid nodes. Estimates of dispersion (standard deviation) were also calculated. The Town Data Base contains the estimates for all combinations of location and nuclear event for which the estimated mean H+12 exposure rate was greater than three times background. A listing of the data base is included as an appendix. The information was used by other project task groups to estimate the radiation dose that off-site populations and individuals may have received as a result of exposure to fallout from Nevada nuclear tests.

  3. Possibility of coupling the magnetosphere-ionosphere during the time of earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabeh, Taha; Cataldi, Gabriele; Straser, Valentino

    2014-05-01

    In this work we attempt to quantify and investigate the causes of earthquakes using the magnetic signal and hence to predict. We proceed several trails to quantify forces using Sq-variation currents in the Earth's lithosphere and the electromagnetic induction prevailed in the ionosphere at the time of earthquakes. The deep sources of magnetic field prevailed in the Lithosphere has been investigated using the magnetic jerks. Also, the relationship between the applied stress and the corresponding variation in the remanent magnetization has been investigated for rock samples collected along active tectonic zones, while the electromagnetic variations prevailed in the ionosphere were studied using Kp index with respect to the earthquake occurrences. The results show that correlation between the variations in the magnetic field and the tectonic activities has been approved along the diurnal and long term variations. The cross-correlation coefficients (PCC) factors between the correlated data sets are ranging between 0.813 and 0.94 indicating strong linear relationship. We concluded that we can trace a noticeable magnetic signal during the 24 before earthquake events. We determine the occurrence times of geomagnetic impulses (jerks) at the time of earthquakes. We show a direct relation between the stress and the remanent magnetization confirming the additional magnetic values (ΔH) that is added to the main magnetic field. Also analysis of the Kp and the variations of geomagnetic background (perturbations) shows the possibility of the coupling interaction process between the magnetosphere-ionosphere during the time of earthquake. In fact, by analyzing the modulation of solar activity taking as reference the change in density of the solar wind, was verified that M6+ global seismic activity is influenced by the variations of the density of the solar wind. Key words: Sq variations, earthquakes, magnetic jerks, Seismic Geomagnetic Precursor (SGP), Interplanetary Seismic

  4. Geolocation of an Audio Source in a Multipath Environment Using Time-of-Arrival

    Science.gov (United States)

    2004-03-01

    37 Topology #2: 5000m x 5000m x 50m, 25 receivers..................................................39 Topology #3: 150m x 150m x 50m, 9... 5000m x 5000m x 50m ............. 26 Figure 3.4 X/Y Plane representation of Topology #3: 150m x 150m x 20m ................. 27 Figure 3.5 X/Y...the SLDU for triangulation. The SLDU, run from a laptop computer, receives “hits” from the SUs which are time-stamped. It then uses the proprietary

  5. Positioning of aquatic animals based on time-of-arrival and random walk models using YAPS (Yet Another Positioning Solver)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baktoft, Henrik; Gjelland, Karl Øystein; Økland, Finn

    2017-01-01

    and error control. Feasibility and performance of YAPS was rigorously tested in a simulation study and by applying YAPS to data from an acoustic transmitter towed in a receiver array. Performance was compared to an alternative positioning model and proprietary software. The simulation study and field test......Aquatic positional telemetry offers vast opportunities to study in vivo behaviour of wild animals, but there is room for improvement in the data quality provided by current procedures for estimating positions. Here we present a novel positioning method called YAPS (Yet Another Positioning Solver......), involving Maximum Likelihood analysis of a state-space model applied directly to time of arrival (TOA) data in combination with a movement model. YAPS avoids the sequential positioning-filtering-approach applied in alternative tools by using all available data in a single model, and offers better accuracy...

  6. Modeling inter-signal arrival times for accurate detection of CAN bus signal injection attacks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, Michael Roy [ORNL; Bridges, Robert A [ORNL; Combs, Frank L [ORNL; Starr, Michael S [ORNL; Prowell, Stacy J [ORNL

    2017-01-01

    Modern vehicles rely on hundreds of on-board electronic control units (ECUs) communicating over in-vehicle networks. As external interfaces to the car control networks (such as the on-board diagnostic (OBD) port, auxiliary media ports, etc.) become common, and vehicle-to-vehicle / vehicle-to-infrastructure technology is in the near future, the attack surface for vehicles grows, exposing control networks to potentially life-critical attacks. This paper addresses the need for securing the CAN bus by detecting anomalous traffic patterns via unusual refresh rates of certain commands. While previous works have identified signal frequency as an important feature for CAN bus intrusion detection, this paper provides the first such algorithm with experiments on five attack scenarios. Our data-driven anomaly detection algorithm requires only five seconds of training time (on normal data) and achieves true positive / false discovery rates of 0.9998/0.00298, respectively (micro-averaged across the five experimental tests).

  7. A real-time earthquake detector with prefiltering by wavelets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botella, F.; Rosa-Herranz, J.; Giner, J. J.; Molina, S.; Galiana-Merino, J. J.

    2003-08-01

    With the recent development and the growth of personal computers technology, we decided to implement a new earthquake detector. This detector, WDetect, can register in continuous mode all signals received from all our stations of the Local Seismic Network in the province of Alicante in the South-East of Spain. Simultaneously, our program can detect and store seismic events using the classical algorithm based on short- and long-term averages (STA and LTA, respectively). As a new improvement in the detection process, we have added signal prefiltering using the discrete wavelet transform, which increases the detection rate and reduces the false alarm rate, in contrast to other detectors like XDetect or XRTP. All this has been achieved without losing any meaningful event. These improvements were verified by an analysis performed during March 2001 on data from the Local Seismic Network in the province of Alicante, where WDetect has been running since the end of year 2000.

  8. Routine filtration of hematopoietic stem cell products: the time has arrived.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulson, Kristjan; Gilpin, Scott G; Shpiruk, Tanner A; Anjos, Karla; Tulloch, Marie; Giftakis, Angleine; Blankstein, Anna R; Szwajcer, David; Wall, Donna A

    2015-08-01

    Most blood products are infused at the time of transfusion through a standard blood filter, designed to capture macroaggregates and cellular debris that might be harmful to the patient if infused. Hematopoietic stem cell products are not universally filtered, likely due to concern about loss of viable stem cells in the filtration process. We conducted a two-phase study to better understand the safety of routine filtration. First, surplus cryopreserved stem cell products were thawed and filtered, with markers of viability and potency measured. Second, routine filtration was implemented as part of routine practice at our center, and date of neutrophil and platelet (PLT) recovery was compared to historical controls. In the first phase, there was no difference seen in any markers of viability or potency for products after routine filtration. Based on those results, routine filtration was implemented. There was no difference in neutrophil or PLT engraftment. Thus, in this study, routine filtration did not impact the number of viable stem cells and did not delay engraftment. Given the very real harm posed by infusion of macroaggregates and cellular debris, and no clear disadvantage to filtration, routine filtration of stem cell products should be considered the standard of care. © 2015 AABB.

  9. Developing a Near Real-time System for Earthquake Slip Distribution Inversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Li; Hsieh, Ming-Che; Luo, Yan; Ji, Chen

    2016-04-01

    Advances in observational and computational seismology in the past two decades have enabled completely automatic and real-time determinations of the focal mechanisms of earthquake point sources. However, seismic radiations from moderate and large earthquakes often exhibit strong finite-source directivity effect, which is critically important for accurate ground motion estimations and earthquake damage assessments. Therefore, an effective procedure to determine earthquake rupture processes in near real-time is in high demand for hazard mitigation and risk assessment purposes. In this study, we develop an efficient waveform inversion approach for the purpose of solving for finite-fault models in 3D structure. Full slip distribution inversions are carried out based on the identified fault planes in the point-source solutions. To ensure efficiency in calculating 3D synthetics during slip distribution inversions, a database of strain Green tensors (SGT) is established for 3D structural model with realistic surface topography. The SGT database enables rapid calculations of accurate synthetic seismograms for waveform inversion on a regular desktop or even a laptop PC. We demonstrate our source inversion approach using two moderate earthquakes (Mw~6.0) in Taiwan and in mainland China. Our results show that 3D velocity model provides better waveform fitting with more spatially concentrated slip distributions. Our source inversion technique based on the SGT database is effective for semi-automatic, near real-time determinations of finite-source solutions for seismic hazard mitigation purposes.

  10. Characterizing postseismic decay of several earthquakes in the western US from GPS time-series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Kreemer, C. W.; Blewitt, G.

    2011-12-01

    Geodetic techniques usually detect transient deformation after major earthquakes. This postseismic behavior has been explained in terms of fault afterslip, viscoelastic relaxation, and/or poroelastic rebound. Some studies argue for only afterslip while others explain the process exclusively in terms of viscoelastic relaxation. For afterslip studies, the inferred decay time of the relaxation seems to vary widely between different earthquakes. The goal of this study is to shed some new light on the dominating postseismic mechanism in space and time after a number of different earthquakes. To do so, we perform a new and uniform analysis of continuous GPS time-series in the western U.S. We deploy two techniques to characterize the decay after several earthquakes: 1) least-squares inversion with either a logarithmic or exponential decay term, or 2) principal component analysis (PCA). We perform our analysis for different data spans and distance after/from the following events: 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah, 2010 Eureka, 2008 Mogul, 2007 Alum Rock, 2005 Northern California, 2004 Parkfield, 2003 San Simeon, and 1999 Hector Mine. PCA analysis for data starting after the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake until today gives one clear principal component for 24 stations within 100 km distance around epicenter. But when we consider shorter time-spans, a second principal component becomes predominant Our results also show for the same event that logarithmic decay times for stations within 300 km range from 25 to 300 days. There is a general increasing trend with increasing distance from the rupture. Beyond 300 km, the values are either too large or too small to be realistic, which suggests that the post-seismic process is not notable in that region. Our goal is to be able to separate afterslip from relaxation processes and to compare afterslip decay times for each event with some general characteristics of the earthquake itself, such as moment, mechanism, and stress drop.

  11. Healthcare System Information at Language Schools for Newly Arrived Immigrants: A Pertinent Setting in Times of Austerity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tynell, Lena Lyngholt; Wimmelmann, Camilla Lawaetz; Jervelund, Signe Smith

    2017-01-01

    Objective: In most European countries, immigrants do not systematically learn about the host countries' healthcare system when arriving. This study investigated how newly arrived immigrants perceived the information they received about the Danish healthcare system. Methods: Immigrants attending a language school in Copenhagen in 2012 received…

  12. Real-time earthquake monitoring at the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System for tsunami advisories in the Indian Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Uma Devi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Indian Tsunami Early Warning System situated at Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, India, monitors real-time earthquake activity throughout the Indian Ocean to evaluate potential tsunamigenic earthquakes. The functions of the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System earthquake monitoring system include detection, location and determination of the magnitude of potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring in the Indian Ocean. The real-time seismic monitoring network comprises 17 broadband Indian seismic stations transmitting real-time earthquake data through VSAT communication to the central receiving stations located at the Indian Meteorological Department, New Delhi, and the Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, simultaneously for processing and interpretation. In addition to this, earthquake data from around 300 global seismic stations are also received at the Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services in near-real-time. Most of these data are provided by IRIS Global Seismographic Network and GEOFON Extended Virtual Network through Internet. The Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services uses SeisComP3 software for auto-location of earthquake parameters (location, magnitude, focal depth and origin time. All earthquakes of Mw >5.0 are auto-located within 5–10 minutes of the occurrence of the earthquake. Since its inception in October 2007 to date, the warning centre has monitored and reported 55 tsunamigenic earthquakes (under-sea and near coast earthquakes of magnitude ⩾6.5 in the Indian Ocean region. Comparison of the earthquake parameters (elapsed time, magnitude, focal depth and location estimated by the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System with the US Geological Survey suggests that the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System is performing well and has achieved the target set up by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.

  13. Space-time model for repeating earthquakes and analysis of recurrence intervals on the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nomura, Shunichi; Ogata, Yosihiko; Nadeau, Robert M.

    2014-09-01

    We propose a stochastic model for characteristically repeating earthquake sequences to estimate the spatiotemporal change in static stress loading rate. These earthquakes recur by a cyclic mechanism where stress at a hypocenter is accumulated by tectonic forces until an earthquake occurs that releases the accumulated stress to a basal level. Renewal processes are frequently used to describe this repeating earthquake mechanism. Variations in the rate of tectonic loading due to large earthquakes and aseismic slip transients, however, introduce nonstationary effects into the repeating mechanism that result in nonstationary trends in interevent times, particularly for smaller-magnitude repeating events which have shorter interevent times. These trends are also similar among repeating earthquake sites having similar hypocenters. Therefore, we incorporate space-time structure represented by cubic B-spline functions into the renewal model and estimate their coefficient parameters by maximizing the integrated likelihood in a Bayesian framework. We apply our model to 31 repeating earthquake sequences including 824 events on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault and estimate the spatiotemporal transition of the loading rate on this segment. The result gives us details of the change in tectonic loading caused by an aseismic slip transient in 1993, the 2004 Parkfield M6 earthquake, and other nearby or remote seismic activities. The degree of periodicity of repeating event recurrence intervals also shows spatial trends that are preserved in time even after the 2004 Parkfield earthquake when time scales are normalized with respect to the estimated loading rate.

  14. NEAR REAL-TIME DETERMINATION OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCE PARAMETERS FOR TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING FROM GEODETIC OBSERVATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Manneela

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Exemplifying the tsunami source immediately after an earthquake is the most critical component of tsunami early warning, as not every earthquake generates a tsunami. After a major under sea earthquake, it is very important to determine whether or not it has actually triggered the deadly wave. The near real-time observations from near field networks such as strong motion and Global Positioning System (GPS allows rapid determination of fault geometry. Here we present a complete processing chain of Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS, starting from acquisition of geodetic raw data, processing, inversion and simulating the situation as it would be at warning center during any major earthquake. We determine the earthquake moment magnitude and generate the centroid moment tensor solution using a novel approach which are the key elements for tsunami early warning. Though the well established seismic monitoring network, numerical modeling and dissemination system are currently capable to provide tsunami warnings to most of the countries in and around the Indian Ocean, the study highlights the critical role of geodetic observations in determination of tsunami source for high-quality forecasting.

  15. Wrong Place, Wrong Time: Coincidental Involvement in the Gujarat Earthquake, India (2001).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlin, R Richard; Roy, Nobhojit; Patel, Vikas

    2015-10-01

    Orthopaedic surgeons have traditionally answered the call in times of disaster. Shortly after the devastating earthquake in January 2001, in Gujarat India, that call came from a buffer zone hospital. The Gandhi Lincoln Hospital in Deesa, Gujarat was struggling with an influx of injured survivors. Five days after the initial event, 2 of the traveling American authors met up with the Director of Surgery at the hospital. The clinical load was primarily extremity injuries and wounds. The authors present their assessment of the orthopaedic response highlighting factors of success, barriers, and lessons learned. Despite their published accounts, many of these lessons were not applied to the Haiti earthquake response.

  16. Nowcasting Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.; Turcotte, D. L.; Luginbuhl, M.; Gail, G.

    2016-12-01

    Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least 20 or more large earthquake cycles in the region. We then compute the earthquake potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(nearthquakes in the region. From the count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, we determine the value of EPS = P(nearthquake cycle in the defined region at the current time.

  17. Predictions of the arrival time of Coronal Mass Ejections at 1AU: an analysis of the causes of errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Owens

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Three existing models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME transit between the Sun and the Earth are compared to coronagraph and in situ observations: all three models are found to perform with a similar level of accuracy (i.e. an average error between observed and predicted 1AU transit times of approximately 11h. To improve long-term space weather prediction, factors influencing CME transit are investigated. Both the removal of the plane of sky projection (as suffered by coronagraph derived speeds of Earth directed CMEs and the use of observed values of solar wind speed, fail to significantly improve transit time prediction. However, a correlation is found to exist between the late/early arrival of an ICME and the width of the preceding sheath region, suggesting that the error is a geometrical effect that can only be removed by a more accurate determination of a CME trajectory and expansion. The correlation between magnetic field intensity and speed of ejecta at 1AU is also investigated. It is found to be weak in the body of the ICME, but strong in the sheath, if the upstream solar wind conditions are taken into account.

    Key words. Solar physics, astronomy and astrophysics (flares and mass ejections – Interplanetary physics (interplanetary magnetic fields; sources of the solar wind

  18. Timepix, a 65k programmable pixel readout chip for arrival time, energy and/or photon counting measurements

    CERN Document Server

    Llopart, X; Campbell, M; Tlustos, L; Wong, W

    2008-01-01

    A novel approach for the readout of a TPC at the future linear collider is to use a CMOS pixel detector combined with some kind of gas gain grid. A first test using the photon counting chip Medipix2 with GEM or Micromegas demonstrated the feasibility of such an approach. Although this experiment demonstrated that single primary electrons could be detected the chip did not provide information on the arrival time of the electron in the sensitive gas volume nor did it give any indication of the quantity of charge detected. The Timepix chip uses an external clock with a frequency of up to 100 MHz as a time reference. Each pixel contains a preamplifier, a discriminator with hysteresis and 4-bit DAC for threshold adjustment, synchronization logic and a 14-bit counter with overflow control. Moreover, each pixel can be independently configured in one of four different modes: masked mode: pixel is off, counting mode: 1-count for each signal over threshold, TOT mode: the counter is incremented continuously as long as t...

  19. Real-time damage estimations of 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes extrapolated by the Japan Real-time Information System for earthquake (J-RISQ)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shohei, N.; Nakamura, H.; Takahashi, I.; Fujiwara, H.

    2016-12-01

    It is crucial to develop methods grasping the situation soon after the earthquake, both in terms of supporting initial reactions, and enhancing social systems more resilient. For those reasons, we have been developing J-RISQ. Promptly after an earthquake, it estimates damages by combining methods for predicting ground motion using subsurface data, information about population and buildings, damage assessment methods for building using different fragility functions, and real-time observation data obtained by NIED, municipalities and JMA. In this study, we describe about estimations of 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes extrapolated by J-RISQ. In 2016, Kumamoto have faced 2 large jolts, the foreshock (M6.5) occurred on April 14, the main shock (M7.3) came on April 16. J-RISQ published a first report in 29 seconds after the foreshock and generated a total of seven reports within 10 minutes. Finally, it estimated that the number of completely collapsed buildings was between 5,000 and 14,000. In case of the main shock, a first report in 29 seconds, then 8 reports within 11 minutes. Finally, estimated numbers of completely collapsed buildings was between 15,000 and 38,000. The count of completely collapsed residences is approximately 8,300 according to the announcement by FDMA at July 19. In this regard, J-RISQ seems to be overestimated, however, the spatial distribution of estimation indicates a belt of destructive area adjacent to Mashiki town, and this result is correspond approximately to actual damaged area. For verification, we have performed field investigations of building damage in Kumamoto. On the other hand, the damage after the main shock includes the effect of the foreshock, so we are going to develop estimation methods considering about reduction of building caused by continuous earthquakes. *This work was supported by the CSTI through the Cross-ministerial Strategic Innovation Promotion Program (SIP), titled "Enhancement of societal resiliency against natural

  20. Time of Arrival Analysis in NC DETECT to Find Clusters of Interest from Unclassified Patient Visit Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Meichun; Loschen, Wayne; Deyneka, Lana; Burkom, Howard; Ising, Amy; Waller, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Objective To describe a collaboration with the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU APL), the North Carolina Division of Public Health (NC DPH), and the UNC Department of Emergency Medicine Carolina Center for Health Informatics (CCHI) to implement time-of-arrival analysis (TOA) for hospital emergency department (ED) data in NC DETECT to identify clusters of ED visits for which there is no pre-defined syndrome or sub-syndrome. Introduction TOA identifies clusters of patients arriving to a hospital ED within a short temporal interval. Past implementations have been restricted to records of patients with a specific type of complaint. The Florida Department of Health uses TOA at the county level for multiple sub-syndromes (1). In 2011, NC DPH, CCHI and CDC collaborated to enhance and evaluate this capability for NC DETECT, using NC DETECT data in BioSense 1.0 (2). After this successful evaluation based on exposure complaints, discussions were held to determine the best approach to implement this new algorithm into the production environment for NC DETECT. NC DPH was particularly interested in determining if TOA could be used for identifying clusters of ED visits not filtered by any syndrome or sub-syndrome. In other words, can TOA detect a cluster of ED visits relating to a public health event, even if symptoms from that event are not characterized by a predefined syndrome grouping? Syndromes are continuously added to NC DETECT but a syndrome cannot be created for every potential event of public health concern. This TOA approach is the first attempt to address this issue in NC DETECT. The initial goal is to identify clusters of related ED visits whose keywords, signs and/or symptoms are NOT all expressed by a traditional syndrome, e.g. rash, gastrointestinal, and flu-like illnesses. The goal instead is to identify clusters resulting from specific events or exposures regardless of how patients present – event concepts that are too numerous to pre

  1. Long-term changes in regular and low-frequency earthquake inter-event times near Parkfield, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C.; Shelly, D. R.; Johnson, P. A.; Gomberg, J. S.; Peng, Z.

    2012-12-01

    The temporal evolution of earthquake inter-event time may provide important clues for the timing of future events and underlying physical mechanisms of earthquake nucleation. In this study, we examine inter-event times from 12-yr catalogs of ~50,000 earthquakes and ~730,000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault. We focus on the long-term evolution of inter-event times after the 2003 Mw6.5 San Simeon and 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield earthquakes. We find that inter-event times decrease by ~4 orders of magnitudes after the Parkfield and San Simeon earthquakes and are followed by a long-term recovery with time scales of ~3 years and more than 8 years for earthquakes along and to the southwest of the San Andreas fault, respectively. The differing long-term recovery of the earthquake inter-event times is likely a manifestation of different aftershock recovery time scales that reflect the different tectonic loading rates in the two regions. We also observe a possible decrease of LFE inter-event times in some LFE families, followed by a recovery with time scales of ~4 months to several years. The drop in the recurrence time of LFE after the Parkfield earthquake is likely caused by a combination of the dynamic and positive static stress induced by the Parkfield earthquake, and the long-term recovery in LFE recurrence time could be due to post-seismic relaxation or gradual recovery of the fault zone material properties. Our on-going work includes better constraining and understanding the physical mechanisms responsible for the observed long-term recovery in earthquake and LFE inter-event times.

  2. On the Distribution of Earthquake Interevent Times and the Impact of Spatial Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristopulos, Dionissios

    2013-04-01

    The distribution of earthquake interevent times is a subject that has attracted much attention in the statistical physics literature [1-3]. A recent paper proposes that the distribution of earthquake interevent times follows from the the interplay of the crustal strength distribution and the loading function (stress versus time) of the Earth's crust locally [4]. It was also shown that the Weibull distribution describes earthquake interevent times provided that the crustal strength also follows the Weibull distribution and that the loading function follows a power-law during the loading cycle. I will discuss the implications of this work and will present supporting evidence based on the analysis of data from seismic catalogs. I will also discuss the theoretical evidence in support of the Weibull distribution based on models of statistical physics [5]. Since other-than-Weibull interevent times distributions are not excluded in [4], I will illustrate the use of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test in order to determine which probability distributions are not rejected by the data. Finally, we propose a modification of the Weibull distribution if the size of the system under investigation (i.e., the area over which the earthquake activity occurs) is finite with respect to a critical link size. keywords: hypothesis testing, modified Weibull, hazard rate, finite size References [1] Corral, A., 2004. Long-term clustering, scaling, and universality in the temporal occurrence of earthquakes, Phys. Rev. Lett., 9210) art. no. 108501. [2] Saichev, A., Sornette, D. 2007. Theory of earthquake recurrence times, J. Geophys. Res., Ser. B 112, B04313/1-26. [3] Touati, S., Naylor, M., Main, I.G., 2009. Origin and nonuniversality of the earthquake interevent time distribution Phys. Rev. Lett., 102 (16), art. no. 168501. [4] Hristopulos, D.T., 2003. Spartan Gibbs random field models for geostatistical applications, SIAM Jour. Sci. Comput., 24, 2125-2162. [5] I. Eliazar and J. Klafter, 2006

  3. PIXiE: an algorithm for automated ion mobility arrival time extraction and collision cross section calculation using global data association

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Jian; Casey, Cameron P.; Zheng, Xueyun; Ibrahim, Yehia M.; Wilkins, Christopher S.; Renslow, Ryan S.; Thomas, Dennis G.; Payne, Samuel H.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Smith, Richard D.; Teeguarden, Justin G.; Baker, Erin S.; Metz, Thomas O.

    2017-05-15

    Motivation: Drift tube ion mobility spectrometry (DTIMS) is increasingly implemented in high throughput omics workflows, and new informatics approaches are necessary for processing the associated data. To automatically extract arrival times for molecules measured by DTIMS coupled with mass spectrometry and compute their associated collisional cross sections (CCS) we created the PNNL Ion Mobility Cross Section Extractor (PIXiE). The primary application presented for this algorithm is the extraction of information necessary to create a reference library containing accu-rate masses, DTIMS arrival times and CCSs for use in high throughput omics analyses. Results: We demonstrate the utility of this approach by automatically extracting arrival times and calculating the associated CCSs for a set of endogenous metabolites and xenobiotics. The PIXiE-generated CCS values were identical to those calculated by hand and within error of those calcu-lated using commercially available instrument vendor software.

  4. Diagnosis of Time of Increased Probability of strong earthquakes in different regions of the world: algorithm CN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Rotwain, I. M.

    An algorithm for intermediate-term earthquake prediction is suggested which allows diagnosis of the times of increased probability of strong earthquakes (TIPs). TIPs are declared for the time period of one year and an area with linear dimensions of a few hundred kilometers, and can be extended in time. The algorithm is based on the following traits of an earthquake flow: level of seismic activity; its temporal variation; clustering of earthquakes in space and time; their concentration in space; and their long-range interaction. The algorithm is normalized so that it can be applied in various regions without readaptation. TIPs, diagnosed by the algorithm, precede ˜ 80% of strong earthquakes and take on average ˜ 24% of the total time.

  5. Real-Time Performance of PRESTo Earthquake Early Warning System at the Ibero-Maghrebian Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carranza, Marta; Cruz, Eva; Buforn, Elisa; Zollo, Aldo

    2017-04-01

    Recently, the first correlations for an Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) at the Ibero-Maghrebian region have been developed. In order to validate them, we have adapted the Earthquake Early Warning System software platform PRESTo to operate in real time at the Ibero-Maghrebian region. After the period of configuration, it became operative on October 2015, sending warnings to few private users. Here we show the performance of the system during the first 15 months that the EEWS has been operative. More than 400 earthquakes have been detected at the region during the period, for which we have analysed the time needed to issue the alert. We have also compared the first and final estimation of PRESTo with those of the Instituto Geográfico Nacional, for the hipocentral location, origin time and magnitude. A detailed study of the performance of PRESTo for the Alboran 01/25/2016 (Mw=6.3) earthquake, the largest occurred in the region in the last ten years, has been carried out. From the analysis of PRESTo during this period we conclude that an EEWS is feasible and very useful for the Ibero-Maghrebian region.

  6. An algorithm for the localization of multiple interfering sperm whales using multi-sensor time difference of arrival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baggenstoss, Paul M

    2011-07-01

    In this paper an algorithm is described for the localization of individual sperm whales in situations where several near-by animals are simultaneously vocalizing. The algorithm operates on time-difference of arrival (TDOA) measurements observed at sensor pairs and assumes no prior knowledge of the TDOA-whale associations. In other words, it solves the problem of associating TDOAs to whales. The algorithm is able to resolve association disputes where a given TDOA measurement may fit to more than one position estimate and can handle spurious TDOAs. The algorithm also provides estimates of Cramer-Rao lower bound for the position estimates. The algorithm was tested with real data using TDOA estimates obtained by cross-correlating click-trains. The click-trains were generated by a separate algorithm that operated independently on each sensor to produce click-trains corresponding to a given whale and to reject click-trains from reflected propagation paths. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

  7. A Novel Differential Time-of-Arrival Estimation Technique for Impact Localization on Carbon Fiber Laminate Sheets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenio Marino Merlo

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Composite material structures are commonly used in many industrial sectors (aerospace, automotive, transportation, and can operate in harsh environments where impacts with other parts or debris may cause critical safety and functionality issues. This work presents a method for improving the accuracy of impact position determination using acoustic source triangulation schemes based on the data collected by piezoelectric sensors attached to the structure. A novel approach is used to estimate the Differential Time-of-Arrival (DToA between the impact response signals collected by a triplet of sensors, overcoming the limitations of classical methods that rely on amplitude thresholds calibrated for a specific sensor type. An experimental evaluation of the proposed technique was performed with specially made circular piezopolymer (PVDF sensors designed for Structural Health Monitoring (SHM applications, and compared with commercial piezoelectric SHM sensors of similar dimensions. Test impacts at low energies from 35 mJ to 600 mJ were generated in a laboratory by free-falling metal spheres on a 500 mm × 500 mm × 1.25 mm quasi-isotropic Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP laminate plate. From the analysis of many impact signals, the resulting localization error was improved for all types of sensors and, in particular, for the circular PVDF sensor an average error of 20.3 mm and a standard deviation of 8.9 mm was obtained.

  8. A Novel Differential Time-of-Arrival Estimation Technique for Impact Localization on Carbon Fiber Laminate Sheets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merlo, Eugenio Marino; Bulletti, Andrea; Giannelli, Pietro; Calzolai, Marco; Capineri, Lorenzo

    2017-10-03

    Composite material structures are commonly used in many industrial sectors (aerospace, automotive, transportation), and can operate in harsh environments where impacts with other parts or debris may cause critical safety and functionality issues. This work presents a method for improving the accuracy of impact position determination using acoustic source triangulation schemes based on the data collected by piezoelectric sensors attached to the structure. A novel approach is used to estimate the Differential Time-of-Arrival (DToA) between the impact response signals collected by a triplet of sensors, overcoming the limitations of classical methods that rely on amplitude thresholds calibrated for a specific sensor type. An experimental evaluation of the proposed technique was performed with specially made circular piezopolymer (PVDF) sensors designed for Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) applications, and compared with commercial piezoelectric SHM sensors of similar dimensions. Test impacts at low energies from 35 mJ to 600 mJ were generated in a laboratory by free-falling metal spheres on a 500 mm × 500 mm × 1.25 mm quasi-isotropic Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) laminate plate. From the analysis of many impact signals, the resulting localization error was improved for all types of sensors and, in particular, for the circular PVDF sensor an average error of 20.3 mm and a standard deviation of 8.9 mm was obtained.

  9. Real-Time Earthquake Intensity Estimation Using Streaming Data Analysis of Social and Physical Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kropivnitskaya, Yelena; Tiampo, Kristy F.; Qin, Jinhui; Bauer, Michael A.

    2017-06-01

    Earthquake intensity is one of the key components of the decision-making process for disaster response and emergency services. Accurate and rapid intensity calculations can help to reduce total loss and the number of casualties after an earthquake. Modern intensity assessment procedures handle a variety of information sources, which can be divided into two main categories. The first type of data is that derived from physical sensors, such as seismographs and accelerometers, while the second type consists of data obtained from social sensors, such as witness observations of the consequences of the earthquake itself. Estimation approaches using additional data sources or that combine sources from both data types tend to increase intensity uncertainty due to human factors and inadequate procedures for temporal and spatial estimation, resulting in precision errors in both time and space. Here we present a processing approach for the real-time analysis of streams of data from both source types. The physical sensor data is acquired from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) seismic network in California and the social sensor data is based on Twitter user observations. First, empirical relationships between tweet rate and observed Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) are developed using data from the M6.0 South Napa, CAF earthquake that occurred on August 24, 2014. Second, the streams of both data types are analyzed together in simulated real-time to produce one intensity map. The second implementation is based on IBM InfoSphere Streams, a cloud platform for real-time analytics of big data. To handle large processing workloads for data from various sources, it is deployed and run on a cloud-based cluster of virtual machines. We compare the quality and evolution of intensity maps from different data sources over 10-min time intervals immediately following the earthquake. Results from the joint analysis shows that it provides more complete coverage, with better accuracy and higher

  10. Natural Time, Nowcasting and the Physics of Earthquakes: Estimation of Seismic Risk to Global Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, John B.; Luginbuhl, Molly; Giguere, Alexis; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2017-11-01

    Natural Time ("NT") refers to the concept of using small earthquake counts, for example of M > 3 events, to mark the intervals between large earthquakes, for example M > 6 events. The term was first used by Varotsos et al. (2005) and later by Holliday et al. (2006) in their studies of earthquakes. In this paper, we discuss ideas and applications arising from the use of NT to understand earthquake dynamics, in particular by use of the idea of nowcasting. Nowcasting differs from forecasting, in that the goal of nowcasting is to estimate the current state of the system, rather than the probability of a future event. Rather than focus on an individual earthquake faults, we focus on a defined local geographic region surrounding a particular location. This local region is considered to be embedded in a larger regional setting from which we accumulate the relevant statistics. We apply the nowcasting idea to the practical development of methods to estimate the current state of risk for dozens of the world's seismically exposed megacities, defined as cities having populations of over 1 million persons. We compute a ranking of these cities based on their current nowcast value, and discuss the advantages and limitations of this approach. We note explicitly that the nowcast method is not a model, in that there are no free parameters to be fit to data. Rather, the method is simply a presentation of statistical data, which the user can interpret. Among other results, we find, for example, that the current nowcast ranking of the Los Angeles region is comparable to its ranking just prior to the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake.

  11. GIS BASED SYSTEM FOR POST-EARTHQUAKE CRISIS MANAGMENT USING CELLULAR NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Raeesi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters. Earthquakes happen mainly near the edges of tectonic plates, but they may happen just about anywhere. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Quick response after disasters, like earthquake, decreases loss of life and costs. Massive earthquakes often cause structures to collapse, trapping victims under dense rubble for long periods of time. After the earthquake and destroyed some areas, several teams are sent to find the location of the destroyed areas. The search and rescue phase usually is maintained for many days. Time reduction for surviving people is very important. A Geographical Information System (GIS can be used for decreasing response time and management in critical situations. Position estimation in short period of time time is important. This paper proposes a GIS based system for post–earthquake disaster management solution. This system relies on several mobile positioning methods such as cell-ID and TA method, signal strength method, angel of arrival method, time of arrival method and time difference of arrival method. For quick positioning, the system can be helped by any person who has a mobile device. After positioning and specifying the critical points, the points are sent to a central site for managing the procedure of quick response for helping. This solution establishes a quick way to manage the post–earthquake crisis.

  12. GIS Based System for Post-Earthquake Crisis Managment Using Cellular Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raeesi, M.; Sadeghi-Niaraki, A.

    2013-09-01

    Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters. Earthquakes happen mainly near the edges of tectonic plates, but they may happen just about anywhere. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Quick response after disasters, like earthquake, decreases loss of life and costs. Massive earthquakes often cause structures to collapse, trapping victims under dense rubble for long periods of time. After the earthquake and destroyed some areas, several teams are sent to find the location of the destroyed areas. The search and rescue phase usually is maintained for many days. Time reduction for surviving people is very important. A Geographical Information System (GIS) can be used for decreasing response time and management in critical situations. Position estimation in short period of time time is important. This paper proposes a GIS based system for post-earthquake disaster management solution. This system relies on several mobile positioning methods such as cell-ID and TA method, signal strength method, angel of arrival method, time of arrival method and time difference of arrival method. For quick positioning, the system can be helped by any person who has a mobile device. After positioning and specifying the critical points, the points are sent to a central site for managing the procedure of quick response for helping. This solution establishes a quick way to manage the post-earthquake crisis.

  13. Teaching with Real-time Earthquake Data in jAmaSeis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, T. K.; Coleman, B.; Taber, J.

    2011-12-01

    Earthquakes can capture the attention of students and inspire them to explore the Earth. The Incorporated Research Institutions in Seismology (IRIS) and Moravian College are collaborating to develop cross-platform software (jAmaSeis) that enables students to access real-time earthquake waveform data. Users can record their own data from several different types of educational seismometers, and they can obtain data in real-time from other jAmaseis users nationwide. Additionally, the ability to stream data from the IRIS Data Management Center (DMC) is under development. Once real-time data is obtained, users of jAmaseis can study seismological concepts in the classroom. The user interface of the software is carefully designed to lead students through the steps to interrogate seismic data following a large earthquake. Users can process data to determine characteristics of seismograms such as time of occurrence, distance from the epicenter to the station, magnitude, and location (via triangulation). Along the way, the software provides graphical clues to assist student interpretations. In addition to the inherent pedagogical features of the software, IRIS provides pre-packaged data and instructional activities to help students learn the analysis steps. After using these activities, students can apply their skills to interpret seismic waves from their own real-time data.

  14. Diagnosis of time of increased probability of volcanic earthquakes at Mt. Vesuvius zone

    CERN Document Server

    Rotwain, I; Kuznetsov, I V; Panza, G F; Peresan, A

    2003-01-01

    The possibility of intermediate-term earthquake prediction at Mt. Vesuvius by means of the algorithm CN is explored. CN was originally designed to identify the Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) for the occurrence of strong tectonic earthquakes, with magnitude M >= M sub 0 , within a region a priori delimited. Here the algorithm CN is applied, for the first time, to the analysis of volcanic seismicity. The earthquakes recorded at Mt. Vesuvius, during the period from February 1972 to October 2002, are considered and the magnitude threshold M sub 0 , selecting the events to be predicted, is varied within the range: 3.0 - 3.3. Satisfactory prediction results are obtained, by retrospective analysis, when a time scaling is introduced. In particular, when the length of the time windows is reduced by a factor 2.5 - 3, with respect to the standard version of CN algorithm, more than 90% of the events with M >= M sub 0 occur within the TIP intervals, with TIPs occupying about 30% of the total time considered. The co...

  15. Fast Estimate of Rupture Process of Large Earthquakes via Real Time Hi-net Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Kawakatsu, H.; Mori, J. J.

    2014-12-01

    We developed a real time system based on Hi-net seismic array that can offer fast and reliable source information, for example, source extent and rupture velocity, for earthquakes that occur at distance of roughly 30°- 85°with respect to the array center. We perform continuous grid search on a Hi-net real time data stream to identify possible source locations (following Nishida, K., Kawakatsu, H., and S. Obara, 2008). Earthquakes that occurred off the bright area of the array (30°- 85°with respect to the array center) will be ignored. Once a large seismic event is identified successfully, back-projection will be implemented to trace the source propagation and energy radiation. Results from extended global GRiD-MT and real time W phase inversion will be combined for the better identification of large seismic events. The time required is mainly due to the travel time from the epicenter to the array stations, so we can get the results between 6 to 13 min depending on the epicenter distances. This system can offer fast and robust estimates of earthquake source information, which will be useful for disaster mitigation, such as tsunami evacuation, emergency rescue, and aftershock hazard evaluation.

  16. Joint Evaluation of EM Signals Detected Around the Time of Major Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouzounov, D.; Pulinets, S.; Ciraolo, L.; Cervone, G.; Kafatos, M.; Parrot, M.; Taylor, P.

    2007-12-01

    We present results from our studies of atmospheric and ionospheric electromagnetic (EM) signals preceding major earthquakes. This study examines possible associations relating anomalous changes of thermal and ionospheric parameters observed around the time of several strong earthquakes (M8.0 in Peru and 1999-2005 in California). Our approach requires an integrated analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (thermal infrared electromagnetic fields, latent heat flux, ionospheric parameters, specifically GPS/TEC, DEMETER and electron density, air temperature and humidity of the boundary layer, and seismicity) that have been found to be associated with impending earthquakes. The ionospheric and atmospheric observational methodology we present is based on a joint analysis of: (1) satellite long-wavelength radiation data form NOAA; (2) surface latent heat flux (SLHF); (3) GPS/TEC and DEMETER; and (4) thermal infrared data from (NASA EOS/MODIS) together with ground air temperature and humidity measurements. Our latest understanding from several post-earthquake independent analyses takes into account the problem of proper evaluation of such alarm techniques for upcoming major (M>5.5, depthPeru (08/15/2007) and EM signals found before the major events in California, using the same methodology. We found evidence of the systematic appearance of both atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies preceding most of these major events. Nighttime TIR signals, approximately a week before the earthquakes, corresponded with an increase of SLHF and air temperature; these were followed by significant variations in the ionospheric TEC measurements above the epicenters. Our findings are consistent with the most recent theoretical model of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling between the crust and the atmosphere/ionosphere proposed by Pulinets et al, (2004, 2006)

  17. JPL's GNSS Real-Time Earthquake and Tsunami (GREAT) Alert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bar-Sever, Yoaz; Miller, Mark; Vallisneri, Michele; Khachikyan, Robert; Meyer, Robert

    2017-04-01

    We describe recent developments to the GREAT Alert natural hazard monitoring service from JPL's Global Differential GPS (GDGPS) System. GREAT Alert provides real-time, 1 Hz positioning solutions for hundreds of GNSS tracking sites, from both global and regional networks, aiming to monitor ground motion in the immediate aftermath of earthquakes. We take advantage of the centralized data processing, which is collocated with the GNSS orbit determination operations of the GDGPS System, to combine orbit determination with large-scale point-positioning in a grand estimation scheme, and as a result realize significant improvement to the positioning accuracy compared to conventional stand-alone point positioning techniques. For example, the measured median site (over all sites) real-time horizontal positioning accuracy is 2 cm 1DRMS, and the median real-time vertical accuracy is 4 cm RMS. The GREAT Alert positioning service is integrated with automated global earthquake notices from the United States Geodetic Survey (USGS) to support near-real-time calculations of co-seismic displacements with attendant formal errors based both short-term and long-term error analysis for each individual site. We will show the millimeter-level resolution of co-seismic displacement can be achieved by this system. The co-seismic displacements, in turn, are fed into a JPL geodynamics and ocean models, that estimate the Earthquake magnitude and predict the potential tsunami scale.

  18. Using a modified time-reverse imaging technique to locate low-frequency earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault near Cholame, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horstmann, Tobias; Harrington, Rebecca M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2015-01-01

    We present a new method to locate low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) within tectonic tremor episodes based on time-reverse imaging techniques. The modified time-reverse imaging technique presented here is the first method that locates individual LFEs within tremor episodes within 5 km uncertainty without relying on high-amplitude P-wave arrivals and that produces similar hypocentral locations to methods that locate events by stacking hundreds of LFEs without having to assume event co-location. In contrast to classic time-reverse imaging algorithms, we implement a modification to the method that searches for phase coherence over a short time period rather than identifying the maximum amplitude of a superpositioned wavefield. The method is independent of amplitude and can help constrain event origin time. The method uses individual LFE origin times, but does not rely on a priori information on LFE templates and families.We apply the method to locate 34 individual LFEs within tremor episodes that occur between 2010 and 2011 on the San Andreas Fault, near Cholame, California. Individual LFE location accuracies range from 2.6 to 5 km horizontally and 4.8 km vertically. Other methods that have been able to locate individual LFEs with accuracy of less than 5 km have mainly used large-amplitude events where a P-phase arrival can be identified. The method described here has the potential to locate a larger number of individual low-amplitude events with only the S-phase arrival. Location accuracy is controlled by the velocity model resolution and the wavelength of the dominant energy of the signal. Location results are also dependent on the number of stations used and are negligibly correlated with other factors such as the maximum gap in azimuthal coverage, source–station distance and signal-to-noise ratio.

  19. Real time drilling mud gas response to small-moderate earthquakes in Wenchuan earthquake Scientific Drilling Hole-1 in SW China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Zheng; Li, Haibing; Tang, Lijun; Lao, Changling; Zhang, Lei; Li, Li

    2017-05-01

    We investigated the real time drilling mud gas of the Wenchuan earthquake Fault Scientific Drilling Hole-1 and their responses to 3918 small-moderate aftershocks happened in the Longmenshan fault zone. Gas profiles for Ar, CH4, He, 222Rn, CO2, H2, N2, O2 are obtained. Seismic wave amplitude, energy density and static strain are calculated to evaluate their power of influence to the drilling site. Mud gases two hours before and after each earthquake are carefully analyzed. In total, 25 aftershocks have major mud gas response, the mud gas concentrations vary dramatically immediately or minutes after the earthquakes. Different gas species respond to earthquakes in different manners according to local lithology encountered during the drill. The gas variations are likely controlled by dynamic stress changes, rather than static stress changes. They have the seismic energy density between 10-5 and 1.0 J/m3 whereas the static strain are mostly less than 10-8. We suggest that the limitation of the gas sources and the high hydraulic diffusivity of the newly ruptured fault zone could have inhibited the drilling mud gas behaviors, they are only able to respond to a small portion of the aftershocks. This work is important for the understanding of earthquake related hydrological changes.

  20. After an Earthquake: Accessing Near Real-Time Data in the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravo, T. K.; Coleman, B.; Hubenthal, M.; Owens, T. J.; Taber, J.; Welti, R.; Weertman, B. R.

    2010-12-01

    One of the best ways to engage students in scientific content is to give them opportunities to work with real scientific instruments and data and enable them to experience the discovery of scientific information. In addition, newsworthy earthquakes can capture the attention and imagination of students. IRIS and collaborating partners provide a range of options to leverage that attention through access to near-real-time earthquake location and waveform data stored in the IRIS Data Management System and elsewhere via a number of web-based tools and a new Java-based application. The broadest audience is reached by the Seismic Monitor, a simple Web-based tool for observing near-real-time seismicity. The IRIS Earthquake Browser (IEB) allows users to explore recent and cataloged earthquakes and aftershock patterns online with more flexibility, and K-12 classroom activities for understanding plate tectonics and estimating seismic hazards have been designed around its use. Waveforms are easily viewed and explored on the web using the Rapid Earthquake Viewer (REV), developed by the University of South Carolina in collaboration with IRIS E&O. Data from recent well-known earthquakes available via REV are used in exercises to determine Earth’s internal structure and to locate earthquakes. Three component data is presented to the students, allowing a much more realistic analysis of the data than is presented in most textbooks. The Seismographs in Schools program uses real-time data in the classroom to interest and engage students about recent earthquakes. Through the IRIS website, schools can share event data and 24-hr images. Additionally, data is available in real-time via the API. This API allows anyone to extract data, re-purpose it, and display it however they need to, as is being done by the British Geological Survey Seismographs in Schools program. Over 350 schools throughout the US and internationally are currently registered with the IRIS Seismographs in Schools

  1. Optimization of two-compartment-exchange-model analysis for dynamic contrast-enhanced mri incorporating bolus arrival time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadav, Guy; Liberman, Gilad; Artzi, Moran; Kiryati, Nahum; Bashat, Dafna Ben

    2017-01-01

    To optimize the analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) under the two-compartment-exchange-model (2CXM) and to incorporate voxelwise bolus-arrival-time (BAT). The accuracy of the pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters, extracted from 3T DCE-MRI using 2CXM, was tested under several conditions: eight algorithms for data estimation; correction for BAT; using model selection; different temporal resolution and scan duration. Comparisons were performed on simulated data. The best algorithm was applied to seven patients with brain tumors or following stroke. The extracted perfusion parameters were compared to those of dynamic susceptibility contrast MRI (DSC-MRI). ACoPeD (AIF-corrected-perfusion-DCE-MRI), an analysis using a 2 nd derivative regularized-spline and incorporating BAT, achieved the most accurate estimation in simulated data, mean-relative-error: F p , F, v p , v e : 24.8%, 41.7%, 26.4%, 27.2% vs. 76.5%, 190.8%, 78.8%, 82.39% of the direct four parameters estimation (one-sided two-sample t-test, P BAT increased the estimation accuracy of the PK parameters by more than 30% and provided a supertemporal resolution estimation of the BAT (higher than the acquired resolution, mean-absolute-error 0.2 sec). High temporal resolution (∼2 sec) is required to avoid biased estimation of PK parameters, and long scan duration (∼20 min) is important for reliable permeability but not for perfusion estimations, mean-error-reduction: E: ∼12%, v e : ∼6%. Using ACoPeD, PK values from normal-appearing white matter, gray matter, and lesion were extracted from patients. Preliminary results showed significant voxelwise correlations to DSC-MRI, between flow values in a patient following stroke (r = 0.49, P < 0.001), and blood volume in a patient with a brain tumor (r = 0.62, P < 0.001). This study proposes an optimized analysis method, ACoPeD, for tissue perfusion and permeability estimation using DCE-MRI, to be used in clinical settings. 1

  2. Connection with seismic networks and construction of real time earthquake monitoring system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chi, Heon Cheol; Lee, H. I.; Shin, I. C.; Lim, I. S.; Park, J. H.; Lee, B. K.; Whee, K. H.; Cho, C. S. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2000-12-15

    It is natural to use the nuclear power plant seismic network which have been operated by KEPRI(Korea Electric Power Research Institute) and local seismic network by KIGAM(Korea Institute of Geology, Mining and Material). The real time earthquake monitoring system is composed with monitoring module and data base module. Data base module plays role of seismic data storage and classification and the other, monitoring module represents the status of acceleration in the nuclear power plant area. This research placed the target on the first, networking the KIN's seismic monitoring system with KIGAM and KEPRI seismic network and the second, construction the KIN's Independent earthquake monitoring system.

  3. The value of real-time GNSS to earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhl, C. J.; Melgar, D.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

    2017-08-01

    Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)-based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms estimate fault finiteness and unsaturated moment magnitude for the largest, most damaging earthquakes. Because large events are infrequent, algorithms are not regularly exercised and insufficiently tested on few available data sets. We use 1300 realistic, time-dependent, synthetic earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust to rigorously test the Geodetic Alarm System. Solutions are reliable once six GNSS stations report static offsets, which we require for a "first alert." Median magnitude and length errors are -0.15 ± 0.24 units and -31 ± 40% for the first alert, and -0.04 ± 0.11 units and +7 ± 31% for the final solution. We perform a coupled test of a seismic-geodetic EEW system using synthetic waveforms for a Mw8.7 scenario. Seismic point-source solutions result in severely underestimated peak ground acceleration. Geodetic finite-fault solutions provide more accurate predictions at larger distances, thus increasing warning times. Hence, GNSS observations are essential in EEW to accurately characterize large (out-of-network) events and correctly predict ground motion.

  4. Real time forecasts through physical and stochastic models of earthquake clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murru, M.; Console, R.; Catalli, F.; Falcone, G.

    2005-12-01

    The phenomenon of earthquake interaction has become a popular subject of study because it can shed light on the physical processes leading to earthquakes, and because it has a potential value for short-term earthquake forecast and hazard mitigation. In this study we start from a purely stochastic approach known as the so-called epidemic model (ETAS) introduced by Ogata in 1988 and its variations. Then we build up an approach by which this model and the rate-and-state constitutive law introduced by Dieterich in the `90s have been merged in a single algorithm and statistically tested. Tests on real seismicity and comparison with a plain time-independent Poissonian model through likelihood-based methods have reliably proved their validity. The models are suitable for real-time forecast of the seismic activity. In the context of the low-magnitude Italian seismicity recorded from 1987 to 2005, the new model incorporating the physical concept of the rate-and-state theory performs not better than the purely stochastic model. Nevertheless, it has the advantage of needing a smaller number of free parameters and providing new interesting insights on the physics of the seismogenic process.

  5. a Real-Time Earthquake Moment Tensor Scanning Code for the Antelope System (brtt, Inc)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, K. A.; Ruppert, N. A.; Freymueller, J. T.; Lindquist, K.; Harvey, D.; Dreger, D. S.; Lombard, P. N.; Guilhem, A.

    2015-12-01

    While all seismic observatories routinely determine hypocentral location and local magnitude within a few minutes of an earthquake's occurrence, the ability to estimate seismic moment and sense of slip in a similar time frame is less widespread. This is unfortunate, because moment and mechanism are critical parameters for rapid hazard assessment; for larger events, moment magnitude is more reliable due to the tendency of local magnitude to saturate, and certain mechanisms such as off-shore thrust events might indicate earthquakes with tsunamigenic potential. In order to increase access to this capability, we have developed a continuous moment tensor scanning code for Antelope, the ubiquitous open-architecture seismic acquisition and processing software in use around the world. The scanning code, which uses an algorithm that has previously been employed for real-time monitoring at the University of California, Berkeley, is able to produce full moment tensor solutions for moderate events from regional seismic data. The algorithm monitors a grid of potential sources by continuously cross-correlating pre-computed synthetic seismograms with long-period recordings from a sparse network of broad-band stations. The code package consists of 3 modules. One module is used to create a monitoring grid by constructing source-receiver geometry, calling a frequency-wavenumber code to produce synthetics, and computing the generalized linear inverse of the array of synthetics. There is a real-time scanning module that correlates streaming data with pre-inverted synthetics, monitors the variance reduction, and writes the moment tensor solution to a database if an earthquake detection occurs. Finally, there is an 'off-line' module that is very similar to the real-time scanner, with the exception that it utilizes pre-recorded data stored in Antelope databases and is useful for testing purposes or for quickly producing moment tensor catalogs for long time series. The code is open source

  6. Incorporating space, time, and magnitude measures in a network characterization of earthquake events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janer, Ciara D.; Biton, Dionessa C.; Batac, Rene C.

    2017-11-01

    We investigate the structural properties of a spatio-temporal network of earthquake events that incorporates magnitude information between the connected events. The network creates temporally directed links from an origin event towards a later event if it breaks the record closest distance from the origin among all the events in the catalog so far. Additionally, the links are conditionally classified based on the magnitude difference between connected events: "up" ("down") connections point from a weaker (stronger) to a stronger (weaker) event. Using earthquake records from the Philippines from 1973 to 2012 and southern California from 1982 to 2012, we observe that the out-degree distributions show slight deviations from the corresponding Poisson distribution of the same mean. The space and time separations of connected earthquakes both show power-law regimes, suggesting spatio-temporal (self-)organization. More importantly, the conditional distributions of "up" and "down" connections in space, time, and network structure point to a higher likelihood of a stronger event triggering a nearby weaker event for the first few connections, as in the case of aftershocks. The results are captured by a sandpile-based model where a small but finite probability of preferentially targeting the most susceptible grid site is introduced. Our analysis, coupled with the discrete model analog, provides a quantitative picture of the spatio-temporal and magnitude organization of seismicity beyond just the successive events. The technique may be extended to further characterize similar long-period earthquake records to yield a more complete picture of the underlying processes involved in seismicity.

  7. Incorporating space, time, and magnitude measures in a network characterization of earthquake events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janer, Ciara D.; Biton, Dionessa C.; Batac, Rene C.

    2017-12-01

    We investigate the structural properties of a spatio-temporal network of earthquake events that incorporates magnitude information between the connected events. The network creates temporally directed links from an origin event towards a later event if it breaks the record closest distance from the origin among all the events in the catalog so far. Additionally, the links are conditionally classified based on the magnitude difference between connected events: "up" ("down") connections point from a weaker (stronger) to a stronger (weaker) event. Using earthquake records from the Philippines from 1973 to 2012 and southern California from 1982 to 2012, we observe that the out-degree distributions show slight deviations from the corresponding Poisson distribution of the same mean. The space and time separations of connected earthquakes both show power-law regimes, suggesting spatio-temporal (self-)organization. More importantly, the conditional distributions of "up" and "down" connections in space, time, and network structure point to a higher likelihood of a stronger event triggering a nearby weaker event for the first few connections, as in the case of aftershocks. The results are captured by a sandpile-based model where a small but finite probability of preferentially targeting the most susceptible grid site is introduced. Our analysis, coupled with the discrete model analog, provides a quantitative picture of the spatio-temporal and magnitude organization of seismicity beyond just the successive events. The technique may be extended to further characterize similar long-period earthquake records to yield a more complete picture of the underlying processes involved in seismicity.

  8. Real-time earthquake monitoring for tsunami warning in the Indian Ocean and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanka, W.; Saul, J.; Weber, B.; Becker, J.; Harjadi, P.; Fauzi; Gitews Seismology Group

    2010-12-01

    The Mw = 9.3 Sumatra earthquake of 26 December 2004 generated a tsunami that affected the entire Indian Ocean region and caused approximately 230 000 fatalities. In the response to this tragedy the German government funded the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) Project. The task of the GEOFON group of GFZ Potsdam was to develop and implement the seismological component. In this paper we describe the concept of the GITEWS earthquake monitoring system and report on its present status. The major challenge for earthquake monitoring within a tsunami warning system is to deliver rapid information about location, depth, size and possibly other source parameters. This is particularly true for coast lines adjacent to the potential source areas such as the Sunda trench where these parameters are required within a few minutes after the event in order to be able to warn the population before the potential tsunami hits the neighbouring coastal areas. Therefore, the key for a seismic monitoring system with short warning times adequate for Indonesia is a dense real-time seismic network across Indonesia with densifications close to the Sunda trench. A substantial number of supplementary stations in other Indian Ocean rim countries are added to strengthen the teleseismic monitoring capabilities. The installation of the new GITEWS seismic network - consisting of 31 combined broadband and strong motion stations - out of these 21 stations in Indonesia - is almost completed. The real-time data collection is using a private VSAT communication system with hubs in Jakarta and Vienna. In addition, all available seismic real-time data from the other seismic networks in Indonesia and other Indian Ocean rim countries are acquired also directly by VSAT or by Internet at the Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre in Jakarta and the resulting "virtual" network of more than 230 stations can jointly be used for seismic data processing. The seismological processing software as part

  9. Time-varying loss forecast for an earthquake scenario in Basel, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann, Marcus; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Wiemer, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    When an unexpected earthquake occurs, people suddenly want advice on how to cope with the situation. The 2009 L'Aquila quake highlighted the significance of public communication and pushed the usage of scientific methods to drive alternative risk mitigation strategies. For instance, van Stiphout et al. (2010) suggested a new approach for objective evacuation decisions on short-term: probabilistic risk forecasting combined with cost-benefit analysis. In the present work, we apply this approach to an earthquake sequence that simulated a repeat of the 1356 Basel earthquake, one of the most damaging events in Central Europe. A recent development to benefit society in case of an earthquake are probabilistic forecasts of the aftershock occurrence. But seismic risk delivers a more direct expression of the socio-economic impact. To forecast the seismic risk on short-term, we translate aftershock probabilities to time-varying seismic hazard and combine this with time-invariant loss estimation. Compared with van Stiphout et al. (2010), we use an advanced aftershock forecasting model and detailed settlement data to allow us spatial forecasts and settlement-specific decision-making. We quantify the risk forecast probabilistically in terms of human loss. For instance one minute after the M6.6 mainshock, the probability for an individual to die within the next 24 hours is 41 000 times higher than the long-term average; but the absolute value remains at minor 0.04 %. The final cost-benefit analysis adds value beyond a pure statistical approach: it provides objective statements that may justify evacuations. To deliver supportive information in a simple form, we propose a warning approach in terms of alarm levels. Our results do not justify evacuations prior to the M6.6 mainshock, but in certain districts afterwards. The ability to forecast the short-term seismic risk at any time-and with sufficient data anywhere-is the first step of personal decision-making and raising risk

  10. Real-time forecasting of ICME shock arrivals at L1 during the "April Fool’s Day" epoch: 28 March – 21 April 2001

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Sun

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available The Sun was extremely active during the "April Fool’s Day" epoch of 2001. We chose this period between a solar flare on 28 March 2001 to a final shock arrival at Earth on 21 April 2001. The activity consisted of two presumed helmet-streamer blowouts, seven M-class flares, and nine X-class flares, the last of which was behind the west limb. We have been experimenting since February 1997 with real-time, end-to-end forecasting of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME shock arrival times. Since August 1998, these forecasts have been distributed in real-time by e-mail to a list of interested scientists and operational USAF and NOAA forecasters. They are made using three different solar wind models. We describe here the solar events observed during the April Fool’s 2001 epoch, along with the predicted and actual shock arrival times, and the ex post facto correction to the real-time coronal shock speed observations. It appears that the initial estimates of coronal shock speeds from Type II radio burst observations and coronal mass ejections were too high by as much as 30%. We conclude that a 3-dimensional coronal density model should be developed for application to observations of solar flares and their Type II radio burst observations.Key words. Interplanetary physics (flare and stream dynamics; interplanetary shocks – Magnetosheric physics (storms and substorms

  11. Real-time forecasting of ICME shock arrivals at L1 during the "April Fool’s Day" epoch: 28 March – 21 April 2001

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Sun

    Full Text Available The Sun was extremely active during the "April Fool’s Day" epoch of 2001. We chose this period between a solar flare on 28 March 2001 to a final shock arrival at Earth on 21 April 2001. The activity consisted of two presumed helmet-streamer blowouts, seven M-class flares, and nine X-class flares, the last of which was behind the west limb. We have been experimenting since February 1997 with real-time, end-to-end forecasting of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME shock arrival times. Since August 1998, these forecasts have been distributed in real-time by e-mail to a list of interested scientists and operational USAF and NOAA forecasters. They are made using three different solar wind models. We describe here the solar events observed during the April Fool’s 2001 epoch, along with the predicted and actual shock arrival times, and the ex post facto correction to the real-time coronal shock speed observations. It appears that the initial estimates of coronal shock speeds from Type II radio burst observations and coronal mass ejections were too high by as much as 30%. We conclude that a 3-dimensional coronal density model should be developed for application to observations of solar flares and their Type II radio burst observations.

    Key words. Interplanetary physics (flare and stream dynamics; interplanetary shocks – Magnetosheric physics (storms and substorms

  12. Time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for the 2016 Central Italy earthquakes sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peresan, Antonella; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Romashkova, Leontina; Panza, Giuliano F.

    2017-04-01

    Predicting earthquakes and related ground shaking is widely recognized among the most challenging scientific problems, both for societal relevance and intrinsic complexity of the problem. The development of reliable forecasting tools requires their rigorous formalization and testing, first in retrospect, and then in an experimental real-time mode, which imply a careful application of statistics to data sets of limited size and different accuracy. Accordingly, the operational issues of prospective validation and use of time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios are discussed, reviewing the results in their application in Italy and surroundings. Long-term practice and results obtained for the Italian territory in about two decades of rigorous prospective testing, support the feasibility of earthquake forecasting based on the analysis of seismicity patterns at the intermediate-term middle-range scale. Italy is the only country worldwide where two independent, globally tested, algorithms are simultaneously applied, namely CN and M8S, which permit to deal with multiple sets of seismic precursors to allow for a diagnosis of the intervals of time when a strong event is likely to occur inside a given region. Based on routinely updated space-time information provided by CN and M8S forecasts, an integrated procedure has been developed that allows for the definition of time-dependent seismic hazard scenarios, through the realistic modeling of ground motion by the neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA). This scenario-based methodology permits to construct, both at regional and local scale, scenarios of ground motion for the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted areas. CN and M8S predictions, as well as the related time-dependent ground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are routinely updated since 2006. The issues and results from real-time testing of the integrated NDSHA scenarios are illustrated, with special

  13. Strong motion duration and earthquake magnitude relationships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salmon, M.W.; Short, S.A. [EQE International, Inc., San Francisco, CA (United States); Kennedy, R.P. [RPK Structural Mechanics Consulting, Yorba Linda, CA (United States)

    1992-06-01

    Earthquake duration is the total time of ground shaking from the arrival of seismic waves until the return to ambient conditions. Much of this time is at relatively low shaking levels which have little effect on seismic structural response and on earthquake damage potential. As a result, a parameter termed ``strong motion duration`` has been defined by a number of investigators to be used for the purpose of evaluating seismic response and assessing the potential for structural damage due to earthquakes. This report presents methods for determining strong motion duration and a time history envelope function appropriate for various evaluation purposes, for earthquake magnitude and distance, and for site soil properties. There are numerous definitions of strong motion duration. For most of these definitions, empirical studies have been completed which relate duration to earthquake magnitude and distance and to site soil properties. Each of these definitions recognizes that only the portion of an earthquake record which has sufficiently high acceleration amplitude, energy content, or some other parameters significantly affects seismic response. Studies have been performed which indicate that the portion of an earthquake record in which the power (average rate of energy input) is maximum correlates most closely with potential damage to stiff nuclear power plant structures. Hence, this report will concentrate on energy based strong motion duration definitions.

  14. Time-history simulation of civil architecture earthquake disaster relief- based on the three-dimensional dynamic finite element method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Bing

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake action is the main external factor which influences long-term safe operation of civil construction, especially of the high-rise building. Applying time-history method to simulate earthquake response process of civil construction foundation surrounding rock is an effective method for the anti-knock study of civil buildings. Therefore, this paper develops a civil building earthquake disaster three-dimensional dynamic finite element numerical simulation system. The system adopts the explicit central difference method. Strengthening characteristics of materials under high strain rate and damage characteristics of surrounding rock under the action of cyclic loading are considered. Then, dynamic constitutive model of rock mass suitable for civil building aseismic analysis is put forward. At the same time, through the earthquake disaster of time-history simulation of Shenzhen Children’s Palace, reliability and practicability of system program is verified in the analysis of practical engineering problems.

  15. On the reliability of the geomagnetic quake as a short time earthquake's precursor for the Sofia region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Cht. Mavrodiev

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The local 'when' for earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic 'quakes' and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal minimum approximately ±1 day and for the maximum ±2 days. The preliminary statistic estimation on the basis of distribution of the time difference between occurred and predicted earthquakes for the period 2002-2003 for the Sofia region is given. The possibility for creating a local 'when, where' earthquake research and prediction NETWORK is based on the accurate monitoring of the electromagnetic field with special space and time scales under, on and over the Earth's surface. The periodically upgraded information from seismic hazard maps and other standard geodetic information, as well as other precursory information, is essential.

  16. Real-time seismic monitoring of the integrated cape girardeau bridge array and recorded earthquake response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celebi, M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper introduces the state of the art, real-time and broad-band seismic monitoring network implemented for the 1206 m [3956 ft] long, cable-stayed Bill Emerson Memorial Bridge in Cape Girardeau (MO), a new Mississippi River crossing, approximately 80 km from the epicentral region of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes. The bridge was designed for a strong earthquake (magnitude 7.5 or greater) during the design life of the bridge. The monitoring network comprises a total of 84 channels of accelerometers deployed on the superstructure, pier foundations and at surface and downhole free-field arrays of the bridge. The paper also presents the high quality response data obtained from the network. Such data is aimed to be used by the owner, researchers and engineers to assess the performance of the bridge, to check design parameters, including the comparison of dynamic characteristics with actual response, and to better design future similar bridges. Preliminary analyses of ambient and low amplitude small earthquake data reveal specific response characteristics of the bridge and the free-field. There is evidence of coherent tower, cable, deck interaction that sometimes results in amplified ambient motions. Motions at the lowest tri-axial downhole accelerometers on both MO and IL sides are practically free from any feedback from the bridge. Motions at the mid-level and surface downhole accelerometers are influenced significantly by feedback due to amplified ambient motions of the bridge. Copyright ASCE 2006.

  17. Evaluation of the cone-shaped pickup performance for low charge sub-10 fs arrival-time measurements at free electron laser facilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Angelovski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An evaluation of the cone-shaped pickup performance as a part of the high bandwidth bunch arrival-time monitors (BAMs for a low charge sub-10 fs arrival-time measurements is presented. Three sets of pickups are installed at the free electron laser FLASH at Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron, the quasi-cw SRF accelerator ELBE at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf and the SwissFEL injector test facility at Paul Scherrer Institute. Measurements and simulations are in good agreement and the pickups fulfill the design specifications. Utilizing the high bandwidth BAM with the cone-shaped pickups, an improvement of the signal slope by a factor of 10 is demonstrated at ELBE compared to the BAM with a low bandwidth.

  18. Arrival times of Flare/Halo CME associated shocks at the Earth: comparison of the predictions of three numerical models with these observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. P. McKenna-Lawlor

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available The arrival times at L1 of eleven travelling shocks associated both with X-ray flaring and with halo CMEs recorded aboard SOHO/LASCO have been considered. Close to the Sun the velocities of these events were estimated using either Type II radio records or CME speeds. Close to the Earth the shocks were detected in the data of various solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF and energetic particle experiments aboard SOHO, ACE, WIND, INTERBALL-1 and IMP-8. The real-time shock arrival predictions of three numerical models, namely the Shock Time of Arrival Model (STOA, the Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model (ISPM and the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry Solar Wind Model (HAFv.2 were tested against these observations. This is the first time that energetic protons (tens of keV to a few MeV have been used to complement plasma and IMF data in validating shock propagation models. The models were all generally successful in predicting shock arrivals. STOA provided the smallest values of the "predicted minus measured" arrival times and displayed a typical predictive precision better than about 8 h. The ratio of the calculated standard deviation of the transit times to Earth to the standard deviation of the measurements was estimated for each model (treating interacting events as composite shocks and these ratios turned out to be 0.60, 1.15 and 1.02 for STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2, respectively. If an event in the sample for which the shock velocity was not well known is omitted from consideration, these ratios become 0.36, 0.76 and 0.81, respectively. Larger statistical samples should now be tested. The ratio of the in situ shock velocity and the "Sun to L1" transit velocity (Vsh /Vtr was in the range of 0.7–0.9 for individual, non-interacting, shock events. HAFv.2 uniquely provided information on those changes in the COBpoint (the moving Connection point on the shock along the IMF to the OBserver which directly influenced energetic particle rise times

  19. The Impact of The Energy-time Distribution of The Ms 7.0 Lushan Earthquake on Slope Dynamic Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, X.; Griffiths, D.; Tang, H.

    2013-12-01

    This paper introduces a new method to evaluate the area-specific potential risk for earthquake induced slope failures, and the Lushan earthquake is used as an example. The overall framework of this paper consists of three parts. First, the energy-time distribution of the earthquake was analyzed. The Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake occurred on April 20, 2013. The epicenter was located in Lushan County, Sichuan province, which is in the same province heavily impacted by the 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. Compared with the Wenchuan earthquake, the records of the strong motion of the Lushan earthquake are much richer than those of the Wenchuan earthquake. Some earthquake observatories are very close to the epicenter and the closest strong motion record was collected with a spherical distance of just 34.8 km from the epicenter. This advantage stems from the fact that routine efforts of strong motion observation in this area were greatly enhanced after the Wenchuan earthquake. The energy-time distribution features of the Lushan earthquake waves were obtained from 123 groups of three-component acceleration records of the 40-second mainshock. When the 5% ~ 85% energy section is taken into account, the significant duration is presented with a start point of the first 3.0 to 4.0 seconds and the end point of the first 13.0 to 15.0 seconds. However, if the acceleration of 0.15g is taken into account, the bracketed duration is obtained with the start point of the first 4.0 to 5.0 seconds and the end point of the first 13.0 to 14.0 seconds. Second, a new reliability analysis method was proposed which considers the energy-time distribution of the earthquake. Using the significant duration and bracketed duration as certain statistical windows, the advantages of considering energy-time distribution can be involved. In this method, the dynamic critical slip surfaces and their factors of safety (FOS) are described as time series. The slope reliability evaluation criteria, such as dynamic

  20. GPS Time Series Analysis of Southern California Associated with the 2010 M7.2 El Mayor/Cucapah Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granat, Robert; Donnellan, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    The Magnitude 7.2 El-Mayor/Cucapah earthquake the occurred in Mexico on April 4, 2012 was well instrumented with continuous GPS stations in California. Large Offsets were observed at the GPS stations as a result of deformation from the earthquake providing information about the co-seismic fault slip as well as fault slip from large aftershocks. Information can also be obtained from the position time series at each station.

  1. Magnitude estimation using the first three seconds P-wave amplitude in earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yih-Min; Zhao, Li

    2006-08-01

    Pd is the peak amplitude of displacement in the first three seconds after the arrival of the P wave. We investigated the attenuation of Pd with the hypocentral distance R in southern California as a function of magnitude M, and obtained the following relationship: log (Pd) = -3.463 + 0.729 × M - 1.374 × log (R) +/- 0.305. Given an earthquake location determined by the P-wave arrival times at stations close to the epicenter, this relationship can be used to define a so-called ``Pd magnitude'' of earthquakes. Our result shows that for earthquakes in southern California the Pd magnitudes agree with the catalog magnitudes with a standard deviation of 0.18 for events less than magnitude 6.5. Therefore, Pd is a robust measurement for estimating the magnitudes of earthquakes and has practical application in earthquake early warning systems.

  2. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1994-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  3. Prediction of Global and Localized Damage and Future Reliability for RC Structures subject to Earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köyluoglu, H.U.; Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Cakmak, A.S.

    1997-01-01

    the arrival of the first earthquake from non-destructive vibration tests or via structural analysis. The previous excitation and displacement response time series is employed for the identification of the instantaneous softening using an ARMA model. The hysteresis parameters are updated after each earthquake....... The proposed model is next generalized for the MDOF system. Using the adapted models for the structure and the global damage state, the global damage in a future earthquake can then be estimated when a suitable earthquake model is applied. The performance of the model is illustrated on RC frames which were...

  4. The effects of public education through Short Message Service on the time from symptom onset to hospital arrival in patients with myocardial infarction: A field trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saberi, Farzaneh; Adib-Hajbaghery, Mohsen; Zohrehie, Javad

    2017-05-01

    Patients' early hospital arrival is among the most important factors in minimizing the complications of myocardial infarction (MI). One of the measures which can reduce prehospital delay in these patients is public education. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of public education through Short Message Service (SMS) on the time from symptom onset to hospital arrival (or onset-to-door time) in patients with MI in Kashan, Iran. This field trial was done on 131 patients with definite diagnosis of myocardial infarction. Intervention included sending an educational short message about the symptoms of MI and the necessity of referring to hospital immediately. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the predictors of the onset-to-door time. The results showed no significant difference in demographic characteristics, clinical variables and past medical history between the participants in the two groups. The onset-to-door time was significantly shorter in the intervention group than the control group (240.53 ± 156.60 vs. 291.70 ± 251.23, P= 0.003). Moreover, the onset-to-call time was significantly shorter in the intervention group than the control group (127.06 ± 202.62 vs. 44.32 ± 81.26, P = 0.002). The odds of arrival at hospital in the first 120 minutes after the onset of MI manifestations was 5.8 (2.04-16.8) times higher in the group that received the educational SMS. As both the onset-to-door and onset-to-call times were shorter in the intervention group, it is suggested to use this method to raise the public awareness of MI symptoms and the need for early referral.

  5. Testing a time-domain regional momtent tensor inversion program for large worldwide earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, G.; Hoffmann, M.; Hanka, W.; Saul, J.

    2009-04-01

    After gaining an accurate source location and magnitude estimate of large earthquakes the direction of plate movement is the next important information for reliable hazard assessment. For this purpose rapid moment tensor inversions are necessary. In this study the time-domain moment tensor inversion program by Dreger (2001) is tested. This program for regional moment tensor solutions is applied to seismic data from regional stations of the GEOFON net and international cooperating partner networks (InaTEWS, IRIS, GEOFON Extended Virtual Network) to obtain moment tensor solutions for large earthquakes worldwide. The motivation of the study is to have rapid information on the plate motion direction for the verification of tsunami generation hazard by earthquakes. A special interest lies on the application in the Indonesian archipelago to integrate the program in German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS). Performing the inversion on a single CPU of a normal PC most solutions are achieved within half an hour after origin time. The program starts automatically for large earthquakes detected by the seismic analysis tool SeisComP3 (Hanka et al, 2008). The data from seismic stations in the distance range up to 2000 km are selected, prepared and quality controlled. First the program searches the best automatic solution by varying the source depth. Testing different stations combinations for the inversion enables to identify the stability of the solution. For further optimization of the solution the interactive selection of available stations is facilitated. The results of over 200 events are compared to centroid moment tensor solutions from the Global CMT-Project, from MedNet/INGV and NEID to evaluate the accuracy of the results. The inversion in the time-domain is sensitive to uncertainties in the velocity model and in the source location. These resolution limits are visible in the waveform fits. Another reason for misfits are strong structural inhomogeneities

  6. It's "Your" Fault!: An Investigation into Earthquakes, Plate Tectonics, and Geologic Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clary, Renee; Wandersee, James

    2011-01-01

    Earthquakes "have" been in the news of late--from the disastrous 2010 Haitian temblor that killed more than 300,000 people to the March 2011 earthquake and devastating tsunami in Honshu, Japan, to the unexpected August 2011 earthquake in Mineral, Virginia, felt from Alabama to Maine and as far west as Illinois. As expected, these events…

  7. Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J.; Zeng, Yuehua; ,

    2013-01-01

    In this report we present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multifault ruptures, both limitations of the previous model (UCERF2). The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level "grand inversion" that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (for example, magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1,440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M≥5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded because of lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (for example, constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of

  8. An algorithm of local earthquake detection from digital records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. PROZOROV

    1978-06-01

    Full Text Available The problem of automatical detection of earthquake signals in seismograms
    and definition of first arrivals of p and s waves is considered.
    The algorithm is based on the analysis of t(A function which represents
    the time of first appearence of a number of going one after another
    swings of amplitudes greather than A in seismic signals. It allows to explore
    such common features of seismograms of earthquakes as sudden
    first p-arrivals of amplitude greater than general amplitude of noise and
    after the definite interval of time before s-arrival the amplitude of which
    overcomes the amplitude of p-arrival. The method was applied to
    3-channel recods of Friuli aftershocks, ¿'-arrivals were defined correctly
    in all cases; p-arrivals were defined in most cases using strict criteria of
    detection. Any false signals were not detected. All p-arrivals were defined
    using soft criteria of detection but less reliability and two false events
    were obtained.

  9. Multiple event relocation of the 22 April 2013, ML=4.8 Tenk, Hungary earthquake aftershocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czecze, Barbara; Süle, Bálint; Bondár, István

    2017-04-01

    The Tenk, Hungary earthquake (ML= 4.8) occurred on 22 April 2013. The mainshock was preceded by two minor foreshocks (ML=3.6, 2.5) was followed by 27 aftershocks with magnitudes between ML 0.7-2.9. The routinely picked arrival times in the Hungarian Earthquake Bulletin were manually repicked to increase the consistency and accuracy of the P and S arrivals. Waveform cross-correlation was used to obtain differential times. We applied the double-difference method with different datasets to investigate the influence of repicked P and S arrival times, initial hypocenters and different velocity models on the relocation process. The results improved with in every step, compared to the original, routinely determinated locations. The results show that the multiple event location procedure significantly enhances the picture of seismicity even in this earthquake sequence.

  10. Real-Time Seismic Monitoring of Thenewcape Girardeau (mo) Bridge and Recorded Earthquake Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    çelebi, Mehmet

    This paper introduces the state of the art, real-time and broad-band seismic monitoring network implemented for the 1206 m [3956 ft] long, cable-stayed Bill Emerson Memorial Bridge in Cape Girardeau (MO), a new Mississippi River crossing, approximately 80 km from the epicentral region of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes. Design of the bridge accounted for the possibility of a strong earthquake (magnitude 7.5 or greater) during the design life of the bridge. The monitoring network consists of a superstructure and two free-field arrays and comprises a total of 84 channels of accelerometers deployed on the superstructure, pier foundations and free-field in the vicinity of the bridge. The paper also introduces the high quality response data obtained from the network. Such data is aimed to be used by the owner, researchers and engineers to (1) assess the performance of the bridge, (2) check design parameters, including the comparison of dynamic characteristics with actual response, and (3) better design future similar bridges. Preliminary analyses of low-amplitude ambient vibration data and that from a small earthquake reveal specific response characteristics of this new bridge and the free-field in its proximity. There is coherent tower-cabledeck interaction that sometimes results in amplified ambient motions. Also, while the motions at the lowest (tri-axial) downhole accelerometers on both MO and IL sides are practically free-from any feedback from the bridge, the motions at the middle downhole and surface accelerometers are significantly influenced by amplified ambient motions of the bridge.

  11. Real-time 3-D space numerical shake prediction for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Huang, Yandan; Wei, Yongxiang

    2017-12-01

    In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake prediction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model.

  12. Real-time numerical shake prediction and updating for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Huang, Yandan

    2017-12-01

    Ground motion prediction is important for earthquake early warning systems, because the region's peak ground motion indicates the potential disaster. In order to predict the peak ground motion quickly and precisely with limited station wave records, we propose a real-time numerical shake prediction and updating method. Our method first predicts the ground motion based on the ground motion prediction equation after P waves detection of several stations, denoted as the initial prediction. In order to correct the prediction error of the initial prediction, an updating scheme based on real-time simulation of wave propagation is designed. Data assimilation technique is incorporated to predict the distribution of seismic wave energy precisely. Radiative transfer theory and Monte Carlo simulation are used for modeling wave propagation in 2-D space, and the peak ground motion is calculated as quickly as possible. Our method has potential to predict shakemap, making the potential disaster be predicted before the real disaster happens. 2008 M S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed method.

  13. Estimation of arterial arrival time and cerebral blood flow from QUASAR arterial spin labeling using stable spline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellaro, Marco; Peruzzo, Denis; Mehndiratta, Amit; Pillonetto, Gianluigi; Petersen, Esben Thade; Golay, Xavier; Chappell, Michael A; Bertoldo, Alessandra

    2015-12-01

    QUASAR arterial spin labeling (ASL) permits the application of deconvolution approaches for the absolute quantification of cerebral perfusion. Currently, oscillation index regularized singular value decomposition (oSVD) combined with edge-detection (ED) is the most commonly used method. Its major drawbacks are nonphysiological oscillations in the impulse response function and underestimation of perfusion. The aim of this work is to introduce a novel method to overcome these limitations. A system identification method, stable spline (SS), was extended to address ASL peculiarities such as the delay in arrival of the arterial blood in the tissue. The proposed framework was compared with oSVD + ED in both simulated and real data. SS was used to investigate the validity of using a voxel-wise tissue T1 value instead of using a single global value (of blood T1 ). SS outperformed oSVD + ED in 79.9% of simulations. When applied to real data, SS exhibited a physiologically realistic range for perfusion and a higher mean value with respect to oSVD + ED (55.5 ± 9.5 SS, 34.9 ± 5.2 oSVD + ED mL/100 g/min). SS can represent an alternative to oSVD + ED for the quantification of QUASAR ASL data. Analysis of the retrieved impulse response function revealed that using a voxel wise tissue T1 might be suboptimal. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Tsunami Arrival Detection with High Frequency (HF Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald Barrick

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative real-time observations of a tsunami have been limited to deep-water, pressure-sensor observations of changes in the sea surface elevation and observations of sea level fluctuations at the coast, which are essentially point measurements. Constrained by these data, models have been used for predictions and warning of the arrival of a tsunami, but to date no system exists for local detection of an actual incoming wave with a significant warning capability. Networks of coastal high frequency (HF-radars are now routinely observing surface currents in many countries. We report here on an empirical method for the detection of the initial arrival of a tsunami, and demonstrate its use with results from data measured by fourteen HF radar sites in Japan and USA following the magnitude 9.0 earthquake off Sendai, Japan, on 11 March 2011. The distance offshore at which the tsunami can be detected, and hence the warning time provided, depends on the bathymetry: the wider the shallow continental shelf, the greater this time. We compare arrival times at the radars with those measured by neighboring tide gauges. Arrival times measured by the radars preceded those at neighboring tide gauges by an average of 19 min (Japan and 15 min (USA The initial water-height increase due to the tsunami as measured by the tide gauges was moderate, ranging from 0.3 to 2 m. Thus it appears possible to detect even moderate tsunamis using this method. Larger tsunamis could obviously be detected further from the coast. We find that tsunami arrival within the radar coverage area can be announced 8 min (i.e., twice the radar spectral time resolution after its first appearance. This can provide advance warning of the tsunami approach to the coastline locations.

  15. Incorporating Real-time Earthquake Information into Large Enrollment Natural Disaster Course Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlong, K. P.; Benz, H.; Hayes, G. P.; Villasenor, A.

    2010-12-01

    Although most would agree that the occurrence of natural disaster events such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and floods can provide effective learning opportunities for natural hazards-based courses, implementing compelling materials into the large-enrollment classroom environment can be difficult. These natural hazard events derive much of their learning potential from their real-time nature, and in the modern 24/7 news-cycle where all but the most devastating events are quickly out of the public eye, the shelf life for an event is quite limited. To maximize the learning potential of these events requires that both authoritative information be available and course materials be generated as the event unfolds. Although many events such as hurricanes, flooding, and volcanic eruptions provide some precursory warnings, and thus one can prepare background materials to place the main event into context, earthquakes present a particularly confounding situation of providing no warning, but where context is critical to student learning. Attempting to implement real-time materials into large enrollment classes faces the additional hindrance of limited internet access (for students) in most lecture classrooms. In Earth 101 Natural Disasters: Hollywood vs Reality, taught as a large enrollment (150+ students) general education course at Penn State, we are collaborating with the USGS’s National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) to develop efficient means to incorporate their real-time products into learning activities in the lecture hall environment. Over time (and numerous events) we have developed a template for presenting USGS-produced real-time information in lecture mode. The event-specific materials can be quickly incorporated and updated, along with key contextual materials, to provide students with up-to-the-minute current information. In addition, we have also developed in-class activities, such as student determination of population exposure to severe ground

  16. Real-time earthquake monitoring for tsunami warning in the Indian Ocean and beyond

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Hanka

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The Mw = 9.3 Sumatra earthquake of 26 December 2004 generated a tsunami that affected the entire Indian Ocean region and caused approximately 230 000 fatalities. In the response to this tragedy the German government funded the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS Project. The task of the GEOFON group of GFZ Potsdam was to develop and implement the seismological component. In this paper we describe the concept of the GITEWS earthquake monitoring system and report on its present status. The major challenge for earthquake monitoring within a tsunami warning system is to deliver rapid information about location, depth, size and possibly other source parameters. This is particularly true for coast lines adjacent to the potential source areas such as the Sunda trench where these parameters are required within a few minutes after the event in order to be able to warn the population before the potential tsunami hits the neighbouring coastal areas. Therefore, the key for a seismic monitoring system with short warning times adequate for Indonesia is a dense real-time seismic network across Indonesia with densifications close to the Sunda trench. A substantial number of supplementary stations in other Indian Ocean rim countries are added to strengthen the teleseismic monitoring capabilities. The installation of the new GITEWS seismic network – consisting of 31 combined broadband and strong motion stations – out of these 21 stations in Indonesia – is almost completed. The real-time data collection is using a private VSAT communication system with hubs in Jakarta and Vienna. In addition, all available seismic real-time data from the other seismic networks in Indonesia and other Indian Ocean rim countries are acquired also directly by VSAT or by Internet at the Indonesian Tsunami Warning Centre in Jakarta and the resulting "virtual" network of more than 230 stations can jointly be used for seismic data processing. The

  17. Comparison between scaling law and nonparametric Bayesian estimate for the recurrence time of strong earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotondi, R.

    2009-04-01

    According to the unified scaling theory the probability distribution function of the recurrence time T is a scaled version of a base function and the average value of T can be used as a scale parameter for the distribution. The base function must belong to the scale family of distributions: tested on different catalogues and for different scale levels, for Corral (2005) the (truncated) generalized gamma distribution is the best model, for German (2006) the Weibull distribution. The scaling approach should overcome the difficulty of estimating distribution functions over small areas but theorical limitations and partial instability of the estimated distributions have been pointed out in the literature. Our aim is to analyze the recurrence time of strong earthquakes that occurred in the Italian territory. To satisfy the hypotheses of independence and identical distribution we have evaluated the times between events that occurred in each area of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources and then we have gathered them by eight tectonically coherent regions, each of them dominated by a well characterized geodynamic process. To solve problems like: paucity of data, presence of outliers and uncertainty in the choice of the functional expression for the distribution of t, we have followed a nonparametric approach (Rotondi (2009)) in which: (a) the maximum flexibility is obtained by assuming that the probability distribution is a random function belonging to a large function space, distributed as a stochastic process; (b) nonparametric estimation method is robust when the data contain outliers; (c) Bayesian methodology allows to exploit different information sources so that the model fitting may be good also to scarce samples. We have compared the hazard rates evaluated through the parametric and nonparametric approach. References Corral A. (2005). Mixing of rescaled data and Bayesian inference for earthquake recurrence times, Nonlin. Proces. Geophys., 12, 89

  18. On a reported effect in ionospheric TEC around the time of the 6 April 2009 L'Aquila earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masci, Fabrizio; Thomas, Jeremy N.; Secan, James A.

    2017-09-01

    In a report published in Advances in Space Research, Nenovski et al. (2015) analyse ionospheric TEC (total electron content) data from GPS measurements around the time of the 6 April 2009 Mw 6. 1 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake. According to the authors, TEC difference (DTEC) calculated from two GPS (Global Positioning System) receivers in central Italy shows a hump-like shape (an increase followed by a decrease) during the hours just before and shortly after the main shock. They maintain that the hump-like shape is anomalous and may be related to the earthquake. We show that the DTEC increase in the hours before the shock, as well as its subsequent slow decrease, does not have any characteristic that might support a possible relationship with the earthquake. We have also conducted our own independent analysis using the same GPS data analysed by Nenovski et al. (2015). We have found a diurnal variation in DTEC time series that shows hump-like shapes like that reported by Nenovski et al. (2015) throughout the investigated period. This demonstrates that the hump-like shape in DTEC close to the time of the 6 April earthquake is not anomalous and cannot be considered a possible earthquake-related effect.

  19. Arrival times of Flare/Halo CME associated shocks at the Earth: comparison of the predictions of three numerical models with these observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. P. McKenna-Lawlor

    Full Text Available The arrival times at L1 of eleven travelling shocks associated both with X-ray flaring and with halo CMEs recorded aboard SOHO/LASCO have been considered. Close to the Sun the velocities of these events were estimated using either Type II radio records or CME speeds. Close to the Earth the shocks were detected in the data of various solar wind plasma, interplanetary magnetic field (IMF and energetic particle experiments aboard SOHO, ACE, WIND, INTERBALL-1 and IMP-8. The real-time shock arrival predictions of three numerical models, namely the Shock Time of Arrival Model (STOA, the Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model (ISPM and the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry Solar Wind Model (HAFv.2 were tested against these observations. This is the first time that energetic protons (tens of keV to a few MeV have been used to complement plasma and IMF data in validating shock propagation models. The models were all generally successful in predicting shock arrivals. STOA provided the smallest values of the "predicted minus measured" arrival times and displayed a typical predictive precision better than about 8 h. The ratio of the calculated standard deviation of the transit times to Earth to the standard deviation of the measurements was estimated for each model (treating interacting events as composite shocks and these ratios turned out to be 0.60, 1.15 and 1.02 for STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2, respectively. If an event in the sample for which the shock velocity was not well known is omitted from consideration, these ratios become 0.36, 0.76 and 0.81, respectively. Larger statistical samples should now be tested. The ratio of the in situ shock velocity and the "Sun to L1" transit velocity (Vsh /Vtr was in the range of 0.7–0.9 for individual, non-interacting, shock events. HAFv.2 uniquely provided information on those changes in the COBpoint (the moving Connection point on the shock along the IMF to the OBserver which directly influenced energetic

  20. Raising the science awareness of first year undergraduate students via an earthquake prediction seminar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilstrap, T. D.

    2011-12-01

    The public is fascinated with and fearful of natural hazards such as earthquakes. After every major earthquake there is a surge of interest in earthquake science and earthquake prediction. Yet many people do not understand the challenges of earthquake prediction and the need to fund earthquake research. An earthquake prediction seminar is offered to first year undergraduate students to improve their understanding of why earthquakes happen, how earthquake research is done and more specifically why it is so challenging to issue short-term earthquake prediction. Some of these students may become scientists but most will not. For the majority this is an opportunity to learn how science research works and how it is related to policy and society. The seminar is seven weeks long, two hours per week and has been taught every year for the last four years. The material is presented conceptually; there is very little quantitative work involved. The class starts with a field trip to the Randolph College Seismic Station where students learn about seismographs and the different types of seismic waves. Students are then provided with basic background on earthquakes. They learn how to pick arrival times using real seismograms, how to use earthquake catalogues, how to predict the arrival of an earthquake wave at any location on Earth. Next they learn about long, intermediate, short and real time earthquake prediction. Discussions are an essential part of the seminar. Students are challenged to draw their own conclusions on the pros and cons of earthquake prediction. Time is designated to discuss the political and economic impact of earthquake prediction. At the end of the seven weeks students are required to write a paper and discuss the need for earthquake prediction. The class is not focused on the science but rather the links between the science issues and their economical and political impact. Weekly homework assignments are used to aid and assess students' learning. Pre and

  1. NON LINEAR OPTIMIZATION APPLIED TO ANGLE-OF-ARRIVAL SATELLITE BASED GEO-LOCALIZATION FOR BIASED AND TIME-DRIFTING SENSORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Levy

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Multiple sensors are used in a variety of geolocation systems. Many use Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA or Received Signal Strength (RSS measurements to estimate the most likely location of a signal. When an object does not emit an RF signal, Angle of Arrival (AOA measurements using optical or infrared frequencies become more feasible than TDOA or RSS measurements. AOA measurements can be created from any sensor platform with any sort of optical sensor, location and attitude knowledge to track passive objects. Previous work has created a non-linear optimization (NLO method for calculating the most likely estimate from AOA measurements. Two new modifications to the NLO algorithm are created and shown to correct AOA measurement errors by estimating the inherent bias and time-drift in the Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU of the AOA sensing platform. One method corrects the sensor bias in post processing while treating the NLO method as a module. The other method directly corrects the sensor bias within the NLO algorithm by incorporating the bias parameters as a state vector in the estimation process. These two methods are analyzed using various Monte-Carlo simulations to check the general performance of the two modifications in comparison to the original NLO algorithm.

  2. PIXiE: an algorithm for automated ion mobility arrival time extraction and collision cross section calculation using global data association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jian; Casey, Cameron P; Zheng, Xueyun; Ibrahim, Yehia M; Wilkins, Christopher S; Renslow, Ryan S; Thomas, Dennis G; Payne, Samuel H; Monroe, Matthew E; Smith, Richard D; Teeguarden, Justin G; Baker, Erin S; Metz, Thomas O

    2017-09-01

    Drift tube ion mobility spectrometry coupled with mass spectrometry (DTIMS-MS) is increasingly implemented in high throughput omics workflows, and new informatics approaches are necessary for processing the associated data. To automatically extract arrival times for molecules measured by DTIMS at multiple electric fields and compute their associated collisional cross sections (CCS), we created the PNNL Ion Mobility Cross Section Extractor (PIXiE). The primary application presented for this algorithm is the extraction of data that can then be used to create a reference library of experimental CCS values for use in high throughput omics analyses. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by automatically extracting arrival times and calculating the associated CCSs for a set of endogenous metabolites and xenobiotics. The PIXiE-generated CCS values were within error of those calculated using commercially available instrument vendor software. PIXiE is an open-source tool, freely available on Github. The documentation, source code of the software, and a GUI can be found at https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/PIXiE and the source code of the backend workflow library used by PIXiE can be found at https://github.com/PNNL-Comp-Mass-Spec/IMS-Informed-Library . erin.baker@pnnl.gov or thomas.metz@pnnl.gov. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  3. A review on remotely sensed land surface temperature anomaly as an earthquake precursor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Anshuman; Singh, Shaktiman; Sam, Lydia; Joshi, P. K.; Bhardwaj, Akanksha; Martín-Torres, F. Javier; Kumar, Rajesh

    2017-12-01

    The low predictability of earthquakes and the high uncertainty associated with their forecasts make earthquakes one of the worst natural calamities, capable of causing instant loss of life and property. Here, we discuss the studies reporting the observed anomalies in the satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) before an earthquake. We compile the conclusions of these studies and evaluate the use of remotely sensed LST anomalies as precursors of earthquakes. The arrival times and the amplitudes of the anomalies vary widely, thus making it difficult to consider them as universal markers to issue earthquake warnings. Based on the randomness in the observations of these precursors, we support employing a global-scale monitoring system to detect statistically robust anomalous geophysical signals prior to earthquakes before considering them as definite precursors.

  4. Thermal, atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies around the time of the Colima M7.8 earthquake of 21 January 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Pulinets

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines the possible relationship of anomalous variations of different atmospheric and ionospheric parameters observed around the time of a strong earthquake (Mw 7.8 which occurred in Mexico (state of Colima on 21 January 2003. These variations are interpreted within the framework of the developed model of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling. The main attention is focused on the processes in the near ground layer of the atmosphere involving the ionization of air by radon, the water molecules' attachment to the formed ions, and the corresponding changes in the latent heat. Model considerations are supported by experimental measurements showing the local diminution of air humidity one week prior to the earthquake, accompanied by the anomalous thermal infrared (TIR signals and surface latent heat flux (SLHF and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC registered over the epicenter of the impending earthquake three days prior to the main earthquake event. Statistical processing of the data of the GPS receivers network, together with various other atmospheric parameters demonstrate the possibility of an early warning of an impending strong earthquake.

  5. Thermal, atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies around the time of the Colima M7.8 earthquake of 21 January 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Pulinets

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines the possible relationship of anomalous variations of different atmospheric and ionospheric parameters observed around the time of a strong earthquake (Mw 7.8 which occurred in Mexico (state of Colima on 21 January 2003. These variations are interpreted within the framework of the developed model of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling. The main attention is focused on the processes in the near ground layer of the atmosphere involving the ionization of air by radon, the water molecules' attachment to the formed ions, and the corresponding changes in the latent heat. Model considerations are supported by experimental measurements showing the local diminution of air humidity one week prior to the earthquake, accompanied by the anomalous thermal infrared (TIR signals and surface latent heat flux (SLHF and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC registered over the epicenter of the impending earthquake three days prior to the main earthquake event. Statistical processing of the data of the GPS receivers network, together with various other atmospheric parameters demonstrate the possibility of an early warning of an impending strong earthquake.

  6. Use of Liquid Chromatography Quadrupole Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry and Metabonomic Profiling To Differentiate between Normally Slaughtered and Dead on Arrival Poultry Meat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidwick, Kate L; Johnson, Amy E; Adam, Craig D; Pereira, Luisa; Thompson, David F

    2017-11-21

    Metabonomic profiling techniques, with established quality control methods, have been used to detect subtle metabolic differences in tissue that could aid in the discovery of fraud within the food industry. Liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-Q-TOF-MS) was utilized to acquire metabolic profiles of muscle, heart, and liver tissue from normally slaughtered and dead on arrival chickens. A workflow including XCMS Online for data processing and robust confirmatory statistics was used in order to differentiate between the two sample types. It was found that normally slaughtered and dead on arrival chicken can be differentiated based on the metabolic profile and multivariate analysis. Markers were found to be significantly different between the two sample types in all samples. With the use of the METLIN database and MS/MS analysis of chemical standards, sphingosine was identified as a marker in the muscle tissue samples which may offer potential for the detection of fraudulently processed chicken meat. The approach taken in this work has shown that it is possible to apply the described workflows to food fraud problems, with an objective of identifying key markers that could be investigated further to determine their usefulness for fraud detection.

  7. Earthquake relocations and InSAR time series analysis of the June 12th 2011 eruption of Nabro Volcano, Eritrea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlyn, J.; Keir, D.; Hammond, J. O.; Wright, T. J.; Neuberg, J.; Kibreab, A.; Ogubazghi, G.; Goitom, B.

    2012-12-01

    Nabro volcano sits on the Danakil block next to the Afar triangle, nested between the Somalian, Arabian and Nubian plates. It is the largest and most central volcano within the ~110-km-long, SSW-NNE trending Nabro Volcanic Range (NVR) which extends from the Afar depression to the Red Sea. On the 12th June 2011, Nabro volcano suddenly erupted after being inactive for 10, 000 years. The resulting ash cloud rose 15 km, it reached the stratosphere and forced aircraft to re-route. The eruption also caused a 17 km long lava flow and ranks as one of the largest SO2 eruptions since the Mt. Pinatubo (1991) event. In response, a network of 8 seismometers were located around the active vent and were recording by the 31st August. Also, satellites with InSAR acquisition capabilities were tasked to the region including TerraSAR-X, Cosmo-SkyMed and Envisat. We processed the seismic signals detected by the array and those arriving at a regional seismic station (located in the north west) to provide accurate earthquake locations for the period September-October, 2011. We used Hypoinverse-2000 to provide preliminary locations for events, which were then relocated using HypoDD. Absolute error after Hypoinverse-2000 processing was, on average, approximately ±2 and ±4 km in the horizontal and the vertical directions, respectively. These errors were reduced to a relative error of ±20 and ±30 m in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively, using HypoDD. Investigation of the parameters controlling the relocation was completed, in order to monitor bias that they caused in the final positioning of the hypocentres. The hypocentres produced have a very small relative depth error (~±30m), and show columns and clusters of activity as well as areas devoid of events. The majority of the seismic events are located at the active vent and within Nabro caldera, with fewer events located on the flanks. There also appears to be a smaller cluster of events to the south-west of Nabro

  8. Development of acceleration time histories for Semarang, Indonesia, due to shallow crustal fault earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partono, Windu; Irsyam, Masyhur; Wardani, Sri Prabandiyani Retno

    2017-11-01

    Research on seismic, microzonation of Semarang is still ongoing. Following the research conducted by Team for Revision of Hazard Maps of Indonesia 2010, Lasem fault was the only fault that should be taken into account for seismic mitigation of Semarang. New research conducted by Team for Updating of Seismic Hazard Maps of Indonesia 2016 suggesting four new and closest shallow crustal fault sources (Rawapening, Weleri, Demak and Semarang Faults) which should be taken into account for seismic hazard mitigation of this city. Those four new seismic sources are typical reverse mechanism seismic sources. However Lasem fault is a typical strike slip mechanism seismic source. This paper presents the development of surface acceleration time histories due to three shallow crustal fault (Lasem, Semarang and Demak) earthquake sources with average magnitude 6.5 Mw. This research was performed by implementing de-aggregation hazard analysis, response spectral matching and site response analysis to obtain modified acceleration time histories. The modified acceleration time histories were developed due to inadequate data caused by those three fault sources. Surface acceleration time histories were calculated at 288 boring locations and then separated into three different time histories based on site class soil conditions (hard, medium and soft soil classes).

  9. Embedded Fiber Optic Sensors for Measuring Transient Detonation/Shock Behavior;Time-of-Arrival Detection and Waveform Determination.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Marcus Alexander; Willis, Michael David; Covert, Timothy Todd

    2014-09-01

    The miniaturization of explosive components has driven the need for a corresponding miniaturization of the current diagnostic techniques available to measure the explosive phenomena. Laser interferometry and the use of spectrally coated optical windows have proven to be an essential interrogation technique to acquire particle velocity time history data in one- dimensional gas gun and relatively large-scale explosive experiments. A new diagnostic technique described herein allows for experimental measurement of apparent particle velocity time histories in microscale explosive configurations and can be applied to shocks/non-shocks in inert materials. The diagnostic, Embedded Fiber Optic Sensors (EFOS), has been tested in challenging microscopic experimental configurations that give confidence in the technique's ability to measure the apparent particle velocity time histories of an explosive with pressure outputs in the tenths of kilobars to several kilobars. Embedded Fiber Optic Sensors also allow for several measurements to be acquired in a single experiment because they are microscopic, thus reducing the number of experiments necessary. The future of EFOS technology will focus on further miniaturization, material selection appropriate for the operating pressure regime, and extensive hydrocode and optical analysis to transform apparent particle velocity time histories into true particle velocity time histories as well as the more meaningful pressure time histories.

  10. Estimating the value of containment strategies in delaying the arrival time of an influenza pandemic: a case study of travel restriction and patient isolation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lin; Zhang, Yan; Huang, Tianyi; Li, Xiang

    2012-09-01

    With a simple phenomenological metapopulation model, which characterizes the invasion process of an influenza pandemic from a source to a subpopulation at risk, we compare the efficiency of inter- and intrapopulation interventions in delaying the arrival of an influenza pandemic. We take travel restriction and patient isolation as examples, since in reality they are typical control measures implemented at the inter- and intrapopulation levels, respectively. We find that the intrapopulation interventions, e.g., patient isolation, perform better than the interpopulation strategies such as travel restriction if the response time is small. However, intrapopulation strategies are sensitive to the increase of the response time, which might be inevitable due to socioeconomic reasons in practice and will largely discount the efficiency.

  11. Arrival and Conquests in the Viceroyalty of Peru in Times of Francisco de Borja y Aragón, Príncipe de Esquilache (1615-1621

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Inés Zaldívar Ovalle

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the Relación, by Francisco de Borja y Aragón, this paper will report on the exploratory travels —named Arrival and Conquests— of Spanish encomenderos and soldiers between 1615 and 1621. In this context, the present study highlights some of the difficulties Esquilache faced in the exercise of power as head of the Viceroyalty of Peru. We focus our attention on the specific event named Spanish Government. The reasons discussed this time, are closely related to the battle between soldiers and trustees to obtain personal profit. The latter was a current struggle, dating from the origins of the viceroyalty. However, at the time of the events, such conflicts had worsened due to a complex political and economic situation.

  12. The earthquake disaster risk characteristic and the problem in the earthquake emergency rescue of mountainous southwestern Sichuan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, S.; Xin, C.; Ying, Z.

    2016-12-01

    In recent years, earthquake disaster occurred frequently in Chinese mainland, the secondary disaster which have been caused by it is more serious in mountainous region. Because of the influence of terrain and geological conditions, the difficulty of earthquake emergency rescue work greatly increased, rescue force is also urged. Yet, it has been studied less on earthquake emergency rescue in mountainous region, the research in existing equipment whether can meet the actual needs of local earthquake emergency rescue is poorly. This paper intends to discuss and solve these problems. Through the mountainous regions Ganzi and Liangshan states in Sichuan field research, we investigated the process of earthquake emergency response and the projects for rescue force after an earthquake, and we also collected and collated local rescue force based data. By consulting experts and statistical analyzing the basic data, there are mainly two problems: The first is about local rescue force, they are poorly equipped and lack in the knowledge of medical help or identify architectural structure. There are no countries to establish a sound financial investment protection mechanism. Also, rescue equipment's updates and maintenance; The second problem is in earthquake emergency rescue progress. In the complicated geologic structure of mountainous regions, traffic and communication may be interrupted by landslides and mud-rock flows after earthquake. The outside rescue force may not arrive in time, rescue equipment was transported by manpower. Because of unknown earthquake disaster information, the local rescue force was deployed unreasonable. From the above, the local government worker should analyze the characteristics of the earthquake disaster in mountainous regions, and research how to improve their earthquake emergency rescue ability. We think they can do that by strengthening and regulating the rescue force structure, enhancing the skills and knowledge, training rescue workers

  13. One-dimensional velocity model of the Middle Kura Depresion from local earthquakes data of Azerbaijan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetirmishli, G. C.; Kazimova, S. E.; Kazimov, I. E.

    2011-09-01

    We present the method for determining the velocity model of the Earth's crust and the parameters of earthquakes in the Middle Kura Depression from the data of network telemetry in Azerbaijan. Application of this method allowed us to recalculate the main parameters of the hypocenters of the earthquake, to compute the corrections to the arrival times of P and S waves at the observation station, and to significantly improve the accuracy in determining the coordinates of the earthquakes. The model was constructed using the VELEST program, which calculates one-dimensional minimal velocity models from the travel times of seismic waves.

  14. Extending shear-wave tomography for the lower mantle using S and SKS arrival-time data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Widiyantoro, S.; Kennett, B.L.N.; Hilst, R.D. van der

    1998-01-01

    Seismic tomography using S wave travel times faces the difficulty imposed by the interference between S and SKS phases near 83o epicentral distance, as the SKS phase overtakes the S waves in the mantle. If the cross-over is avoided completely by excluding S data beyond 82o then no resolution is

  15. Nuclear explosion locations at the Balapan, Kazakhstan, nuclear test site: the effects of high-precision arrival times and three-dimensional structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurber, Clifford; Trabant, Chad; Haslinger, Florian; Hartog, Renate

    2001-04-01

    We have investigated the potential contributions of improved arrival times (using waveform cross-correlation) and the use of three-dimensional (3-D) velocity models for seismic event location capability. Our analyses are applied to a dataset of nuclear explosions at Balapan, Kazakhstan, for which ground-truth locations and some absolute origin times are available. This ground-truth information allows us to determine excellent origin time estimates for the remaining explosions. The combination of excellent ground-truth location information and high-quality origin time estimates permits us to (1) carry out a detailed examination of the quality of ISC picks, (2) identify probable timing errors in the digital data, (3) evaluate relative and absolute location capability using data from a sparse network, (4) assess the influence of event signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) on relative location accuracy, (5) utilize the Balapan events as a source array for 3-D tomography beneath the test site, and (6) test the influence of 3-D structure (local and global) on relative location accuracy and precision in a "controlled" situation. Our principal finding is that improved arrival times are the primary contributor to improved locations. Joint and individual relocations of Balapan events using the full digital dataset result in average mislocations of less than 1 km and 95% confidence regions of a compatible size. To mimic a CTBT scenario more realistically, we also carry out relocations using very few stations (4-10 observations). Location accuracy degrades somewhat, but the high-quality picks generally result in mislocations less than 10 km, even for events with very large azimuthal gaps. Uncertainty is generally underestimated in these cases. Tests with artificially degraded SNR show that mislocation increases slowly as SNR decreases. 3-D velocity structure makes a smaller contribution to relative location accuracy than accurate time picks. Travel time variations due to global 3-D

  16. Tohoku earthquake: a surprise?

    CERN Document Server

    Kagan, Yan Y

    2011-01-01

    We consider three issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) how to evaluate the earthquake maximum size in subduction zones, (2) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in Tohoku area, and (3) what are the possibilities of short-term forecasts during the 2011 sequence. There are two quantitative methods which can be applied to estimate the maximum earthquake size: a statistical analysis of the available earthquake record and the moment conservation principle. The latter technique studies how much of the tectonic deformation rate is released by earthquakes. For the subduction zones, the seismic or historical record is not sufficient to provide a reliable statistical measure of the maximum earthquake. The moment conservation principle yields consistent estimates of maximum earthquake size: for all the subduction zones the magnitude is of the order 9.0--9.7, and for major subduction zones the maximum earthquake size is statistically indistinguishable. Starting in 1999 we have carried out...

  17. First result from the GEONET real-time analysis system (REGARD): the case of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawamoto, Satoshi; Hiyama, Yohei; Ohta, Yusaku; Nishimura, Takuya

    2016-11-01

    We present the initial results of rapid fault estimations for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake on April 16 ( M j 7.3), and coseismic displacements caused by the two large foreshocks that occurred on April 14 ( M j 6.5) and April 15 ( M j 6.4) from the GEONET real-time analysis system (REGARD), which is based on a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) kinematic positioning technique. The real-time finite-fault estimate ( M w 6.85) was obtained within 1 min and converged to M w 6.96 within 5 min of the origin time of the mainshock ( M j 7.3). The finite-fault estimate shows right-lateral strike-slip fault along the Futagawa fault segment, which is consistent with the finite-fault model inferred from post-processed GNSS and InSAR analysis. Furthermore, significant coseismic displacements were observed due to the April 14 and April 15 foreshocks at nearby sites, though these earthquakes were smaller than the pre-assigned system threshold. Our results also demonstrate the potential for the GNSS-based earthquake early warning system for inland earthquakes.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  18. A high-speed, reconfigurable, channel- and time-tagged photon arrival recording system for intensity-interferometry and quantum optics experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girish, B. S.; Pandey, Deepak; Ramachandran, Hema

    2017-08-01

    We present a compact, inexpensive multichannel module, APODAS (Avalanche Photodiode Output Data Acquisition System), capable of detecting 0.8 billion photons per second and providing real-time recording on a computer hard-disk, of channel- and time-tagged information of the arrival of upto 0.4 billion photons per second. Built around a Virtex-5 Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) unit, APODAS offers a temporal resolution of 5 nanoseconds with zero deadtime in data acquisition, utilising an efficient scheme for time and channel tagging and employing Gigabit ethernet for the transfer of data. Analysis tools have been developed on a Linux platform for multi-fold coincidence studies and time-delayed intensity interferometry. As illustrative examples, the second-order intensity correlation function ( g 2) of light from two commonly used sources in quantum optics —a coherent laser source and a dilute atomic vapour emitting spontaneously, constituting a thermal source— are presented. With easy reconfigurability and with no restriction on the total record length, APODAS can be readily used for studies over various time scales. This is demonstrated by using APODAS to reveal Rabi oscillations on nanosecond time scales in the emission of ultracold atoms, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, to measure the second-order correlation function on the millisecond time scales from tailored light sources. The efficient and versatile performance of APODAS promises its utility in diverse fields, like quantum optics, quantum communication, nuclear physics, astrophysics and biology.

  19. Harnessing the Collective Power of Eyewitnesses for Improved Earthquake Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, R.; Lefebvre, S.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Steed, R.

    2013-12-01

    The Euro-Med Seismological Centre (EMSC) operates the second global earthquake information website (www.emsc-csem.org) which attracts 2 million visits a month from about 200 different countries. We collect information about earthquakes' effects from eyewitnesses such as online questionnaires, geolocated pics to rapidly constrain impact scenario. At the beginning, the collection was purely intended to address a scientific issue: the rapid evaluation of earthquake's impact. However, it rapidly appears that the understanding of eyewitnesses' expectations and motivations in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake was essential to optimise this data collection. Crowdsourcing information on earthquake's effects does not apply to a pre-existing community. By definition, eyewitnesses only exist once the earthquake has struck. We developed a strategy on social networks (Facebook, Google+, Twitter...) to interface with spontaneously emerging online communities of eyewitnesses. The basic idea is to create a positive feedback loop: attract eyewitnesses and engage with them by providing expected earthquake information and services, collect their observations, collate them for improved earthquake information services to attract more witnesses. We will present recent examples to illustrate how important the use of social networks is to engage with eyewitnesses especially in regions of low seismic activity where people are unaware of existing Internet resources dealing with earthquakes. A second type of information collated in our information services is derived from the real time analysis of the traffic on our website in the first minutes following an earthquake occurrence, an approach named flashsourcing. We show, using the example of the Mineral, Virginia earthquake that the arrival times of eyewitnesses of our website follows the propagation of the generated seismic waves and then, that eyewitnesses can be considered as ground motion sensors. Flashsourcing discriminates felt

  20. Analysis of High Rate GPS Data From the 2007 Mw 7.7 Tocopilla Earthquake in Northern Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genrich, J.; Simons, M.; Galetzka, J.; Chowdhury, F.; Owen, S.; Minson, S.; Barrientos, S.; Aranda, C.

    2008-12-01

    The CANTO (Central ANdean Tectonic Observatory) geodetic network captured the November 15 Tocopilla earthquake. Using GAMIT/TRACK software we compute 3-component 5Hz time series of station displacement to investigate coseismic and postseismic kinematics. We present spectral characteristics of the recorded coseismic waveforms and compare them to those of other earthquakes (southern Sumatra events). We determine arrival times and estimate simple source parameters from the high resolution records.

  1. The transient analysis of the queue-length distribution in the batch arrival system with N-policy, multiple vacations and setup times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempa, Wojciech M.

    2010-10-01

    A batch arrival queueing system of the MX/G/1 type with unlimited queue is considered. After each busy period the server begins a multiple vacation period, consisting of independent single vacations, when the service process is blocked. The server begins successive single vacations as far as at the end of one of them the number of customers waiting in the queue equals at least N. The service of the first customer after the vacation period is preceded by a setup time. The analysis of the queue-size distribution on the first vacation cycle is directed to the analysis of the same characteristic in the corresponding "usual" system with unremovable server on its first busy period. The renewal-theory approach is used to obtain results in the general case. As main result the explicit representation for the LT of queue-size distribution is derived for the original system.

  2. Uncertainty in Earthquake Source Imaging Due to Variations in Source Time Function and Earth Structure

    KAUST Repository

    Razafindrakoto, H. N. T.

    2014-03-25

    One way to improve the accuracy and reliability of kinematic earthquake source imaging is to investigate the origin of uncertainty and to minimize their effects. The difficulties in kinematic source inversion arise from the nonlinearity of the problem, nonunique choices in the parameterization, and observational errors. We analyze particularly the uncertainty related to the choice of the source time function (STF) and the variability in Earth structure. We consider a synthetic data set generated from a spontaneous dynamic rupture calculation. Using Bayesian inference, we map the solution space of peak slip rate, rupture time, and rise time to characterize the kinematic rupture in terms of posterior density functions. Our test to investigate the effect of the choice of STF reveals that all three tested STFs (isosceles triangle, regularized Yoffe with acceleration time of 0.1 and 0.3 s) retrieve the patch of high slip and slip rate around the hypocenter. However, the use of an isosceles triangle as STF artificially accelerates the rupture to propagate faster than the target solution. It additionally generates an artificial linear correlation between rupture onset time and rise time. These appear to compensate for the dynamic source effects that are not included in the symmetric triangular STF. The exact rise time for the tested STFs is difficult to resolve due to the small amount of radiated seismic moment in the tail of STF. To highlight the effect of Earth structure variability, we perform inversions including the uncertainty in the wavespeed only, and variability in both wavespeed and layer depth. We find that little difference is noticeable between the resulting rupture model uncertainties from these two parameterizations. Both significantly broaden the posterior densities and cause faster rupture propagation particularly near the hypocenter due to the major velocity change at the depth where the fault is located.

  3. Interevent times estimation of major and continuous earthquakes in Hormozgan region based on radial basis function neural network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.R. Mosavi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new method to estimate the time of important earthquakes in Hormozgan region with magnitude greater than 5.5 based on the Radial Basis Function (RBF Neural Network (NN models. Input vector to the network is composed of different seismicity rates between main events that are calculated in convenient and reliable way to create optimized training methods. It helps network with a limited number of training data to estimation. It is common for earthquakes modeling by data-driven methods in this case. In addition, the proposed method is combined with Rosenberg cluster method to remove aftershocks events from the history of catalog for NN to better process the data. The results show that created RBF model successfully estimates the interevent times between large and sequence earthquakes that can be used as a tool to predict earthquake, so that comparison with other NN structure, for example Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP NN, reveals the superiority of the proposed method. Because of superiority proposed method has higher accuracy, lower costs and simpler network structure.

  4. Stochastic prey arrivals and crab spider giving-up times: simulations of spider performance using two simple "rules of thumb".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kareiva, Peter; Morse, Douglass H; Eccleston, Jill

    1989-03-01

    We compared the patch-choice performances of an ambush predator, the crab spider Misumena vatia (Thomisidae) hunting on common milkweed Asclepias syriaca (Asclepiadaceae) umbles, with two stochastic rule-of-thumb simulation models: one that employed a threshold giving-up time and one that assumed a fixed probability of moving. Adult female Misumena were placed on milkweed plants with three umbels, each with markedly different numbers of flower-seeking prey. Using a variety of visitation regimes derived from observed visitation patterns of insect prey, we found that decreases in among-umbel variance in visitation rates or increases in overall mean visitation rates reduced the "clarity of the optimum" (the difference in the yield obtained as foraging behavior changes), both locally and globally. Yield profiles from both models were extremely flat or jagged over a wide range of prey visitation regimes; thus, differences between optimal and "next-best" strategies differed only modestly over large parts of the "foraging landscape". Although optimal yields from fixed probability simulations were one-third to one-half those obtained from threshold simulations, spiders appear to depart umbels in accordance with the fixed probability rule.

  5. Smart earthquake-resistant materials: using time-released adhesives for damping, stiffening, and deflection control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dry, Carolyn M.

    1996-04-01

    Preventing buildings and bridges from damage from severe dynamic loading events is a primary goal of civil infrastructure. Present designs attempt to control structural response by making the structures more massive, by increasing lateral stiffness through bracing, and by damping technology such as mass damping and base-isolation. These attempts affect portions of the governing equation: for an idealized building frame or bridge, the free vibrational behavior is described by Mu + cu + ku equals -mug(t) where m equals mass, c equals damping coefficient, k equals lateral stiffness, u equals deflection, and ug(t) equals ground acceleration. The use of adhesive released internally in a material based way of addressing the problem. The time release of low modulus adhesive chemicals would assist the damping characteristics of the structure, use of a stiffer adhesive would allow the damaged structure to regain some lateral stiffness (k) and adjustment of the set times of the adhesives would act to control the deflection. These can be thought of as potential new method of controlling vibration of behavior in case of a dynamic loading event. In past experiments, self-healing concrete matrices were shown to increase post-yield deflection and load carrying capability by the release and setting of adhesives. The results were promising in resisting damage of dynamic loads applied to frames. This indicates that self-healing concrete would be extremely valuable in civil engineering structures that were subjected to failure-inducing loads such as earthquakes.

  6. Parametric time series analysis of geoelectrical signals: an application to earthquake forecasting in Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Tramutoli

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available An autoregressive model was selected to describe geoelectrical time series. An objective technique was subsequently applied to analyze and discriminate values above (below an a priorifixed threshold possibly related to seismic events. A complete check of the model and the main guidelines to estimate the occurrence probability of extreme events are reported. A first application of the proposed technique is discussed through the analysis of the experimental data recorded by an automatic station located in Tito, a small town on the Apennine chain in Southern Italy. This region was hit by the November 1980 Irpinia-Basilicata earthquake and it is one of most active areas of the Mediterranean region. After a preliminary filtering procedure to reduce the influence of external parameters (i.e. the meteo-climatic effects, it was demonstrated that the geoelectrical residual time series are well described by means of a second order autoregressive model. Our findings outline a statistical methodology to evaluate the efficiency of electrical seismic precursors.

  7. How did the earthquake early warning perform for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, M.; Nishimae, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes are the sequence of two major earthquakes occurred in the Kumamoto, South part of Japan, in April 2016. The first earthquake occurred on April, 14 9:26pm with Mj6.5. The second and larger earthquake occurred 27 hours later, on April 16 1:25am with Mj 7.3. About 50 people were killed due to the collapse of housings and landslides. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) properly provided earthquake early warnings (EEW) for both earthquakes: the warning for the April 14 earthquake was issued at 4 seconds after the first P-wave detection, which is 8 seconds after the origin time. The warning for the April 16 earthquake was issued at 4 seconds after the first P-arrival, and 8.5 seconds after the origin time. The blind zone where EEW was not provided before S-wave arrival is about 25km from the epicenter. This range of blind zone is expected for inland earthquakes whose S-P time is relatively short, so the EEW system worked properly as it was designed. The estimated magnitude was 6.5 and 6.9, respectively, when the warning was reported to public, so the performance of the accuracy and speed was satisfactory. The EEW provided other 17 warnings for smaller earthquakes in Kumamoto prefecture in April 2016. 80% of the warnings (14/17) predicted the seismic intensity within plus-minus 1. However, three events overestimated the seismic intensity by more than 1 unit, and two events underestimated the intensity by more than 1 unit. For the underestimated cases, the magnitude was estimated reasonably well with the error less than 0.3, which suggests this underestimation was due to the error in either attenuation relationship or subsurface soil amplification. For the overestimated cases, the magnitude was also overestimated, which suggests the source estimation had a significant error due to multiple aftershocks. We try to improve this performance to the aftershocks by applying the integrated particle filter approach to the JMA strong motion and Hi

  8. Prevalence and time trends in diabetes and physical inactivity among adult West African populations: the epidemic has arrived.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakari, A R; Lauder, W; Jones, M C; Kirk, A; Agyemang, C; Bhopal, R S

    2009-09-01

    To determine the prevalence and distribution of, and trends in, physical inactivity and diabetes in adult West African populations. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Literature searches were conducted using four electronic databases. Journal hand searches and examination of citations of relevant articles were also undertaken. To be included, studies had to be population based, use clearly defined criteria for measuring diabetes and physical inactivity, present data that allowed calculation of the prevalence of diabetes or physical inactivity, and sample adult participants. Studies retrieved were appraised critically. Meta-analysis was performed using the DerSimonian-Laird random effect model. Twenty-one reports were retrieved for diabetes and 15 reports were retrieved for physical in/activity. Most studies (10 for diabetes and six for physical activity) were conducted solely among urban populations. The prevalence of diabetes in West Africa was approximately 4.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.0-9.0] in urban adults and 2.6% (95%CI 1.5-4.4) in rural adults, and was similar in men and women [prevalence ratio (PR) 1.36, 95%CI 0.96-1.92]. Cumulative time trend analyses suggested an increase in the prevalence of diabetes among adults in urban West Africa, from approximately 3.0% (95%CI 1.0-7.0) to 4.0% (95%CI 2.0-9.0) in the past 10 years. The prevalence of inactivity in West Africa was 13% (95%CI 9.0-18.0). An association was found between physical inactivity and being older (> or = 50 years) (PR 1.82, 95%CI 1.36-2.44), female gender (PR 1.62, 95%CI 1.41-1.87) and urban residence (PR 2.04, 95%CI 1.58-2.63). Diabetes and physical inactivity are important public health issues in urban West Africa, with similar prevalences to wealthy industrialized countries. There is an urgent need for policy makers, politicians and health promotion experts to put measures in place to encourage active lifestyles and control diabetes in urban West Africa.

  9. Earthquakes and faults at Mt. Etna (Italy): time-dependent approach to the seismic hazard of the eastern flank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peruzza, L.; Azzaro, R.; D'Amico, S.; Tuve', T.

    2009-04-01

    A time dependent approach to seismic hazard assessment, based on a renewal model using the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) distribution, has been applied to the best-known seismogenic faults at Mt. Etna volcano. These structures have been characterised by frequent coseismic surface displacement, and a long list of historically well-documented earthquakes occurred in the last 200 years (CMTE catalogue, Azzaro et al., 2000, 2002, 2006). Seismic hazard estimates, given in terms of earthquake rupture forecast, are conditioned to the time elapsed since the last event: impending events are expected on the S. Tecla Fault, and secondly on the Moscatello Fault, both involved in the highly active, geodynamic processes affecting the eastern flank of Mt. Etna. Mean recurrence time of major events is calibrated by merging the inter-event times observed at each fault; aperiodicity is tuned on b-values, following the approach proposed by Zoeller et al. (2008). Finally we compare these mean recurrence times with the values obtained by using only geometrical and kinematic information, as defined in Peruzza et al. (2008) for faults in Italy. Time-dependent hazard assessment is compared with the stationary assumption of seismicity, and validated in a retrospective forward model. Forecasted rates in a 5 years perspective (1st April 2009 to 1st April 2014), on magnitude bins compatible with macroseismic data are available for testing in the frame of the CSEP (Collaboratory for the study of Earthquake Predictability, www.cseptesting.org) project. Azzaro R., Barbano M.S., Antichi B., Rigano R.; 2000: Macroseismic catalogue of Mt. Etna earthquakes from 1832 to 1998. Acta Volcanol., con CD-ROM, 12 (1), 3-36. http://www.ct.ingv.it/Sismologia/macro/default.htm Azzaro R., D'Amico S., Mostaccio A., Scarfì L.; 2002: Terremoti con effetti macrosismici in Sicilia orientale - Calabria meridionale nel periodo Gennaio 1999 - Dicembre 2001. Quad. di Geof., 27, 1-59. Azzaro R., D'Amico S., Mostaccio A

  10. Leadership in a Time of Adversity: A Story from the New Zealand Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Juliette

    2011-01-01

    At 12.51 p.m. on Tuesday, 22 February, Christchurch and the Canterbury region were hit with a 6.4 magnitude earthquake. While not as strong as the 7.1 magnitude earthquake experienced in September, this one was much more violent in its intensity and also occurred in the middle of a busy working and school day. A hundred and eighty people died in…

  11. Wave-equation Based Earthquake Location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, P.; Yang, D.; Yang, X.; Chen, J.; Harris, J.

    2014-12-01

    Precisely locating earthquakes is fundamentally important for studying earthquake physics, fault orientations and Earth's deformation. In industry, accurately determining hypocenters of microseismic events triggered in the course of a hydraulic fracturing treatment can help improve the production of oil and gas from unconventional reservoirs. We develop a novel earthquake location method based on solving full wave equations to accurately locate earthquakes (including microseismic earthquakes) in complex and heterogeneous structures. Traveltime residuals or differential traveltime measurements with the waveform cross-correlation technique are iteratively inverted to obtain the locations of earthquakes. The inversion process involves the computation of the Fréchet derivative with respect to the source (earthquake) location via the interaction between a forward wavefield emitting from the source to the receiver and an adjoint wavefield reversely propagating from the receiver to the source. When there is a source perturbation, the Fréchet derivative not only measures the influence of source location but also the effects of heterogeneity, anisotropy and attenuation of the subsurface structure on the arrival of seismic wave at the receiver. This is essential for the accuracy of earthquake location in complex media. In addition, to reduce the computational cost, we can first assume that seismic wave only propagates in a vertical plane passing through the source and the receiver. The forward wavefield, adjoint wavefield and Fréchet derivative with respect to the source location are all computed in a 2D vertical plane. By transferring the Fréchet derivative along the horizontal direction of the 2D plane into the ones along Latitude and Longitude coordinates or local 3D Cartesian coordinates, the source location can be updated in a 3D geometry. The earthquake location obtained with this combined 2D-3D approach can then be used as the initial location for a true 3D wave

  12. Improvements of the offshore earthquake locations in the Earthquake Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ta-Yi; Hsu, Hsin-Chih

    2017-04-01

    Since 2014 the Earthworm Based Earthquake Alarm Reporting (eBEAR) system has been operated and been used to issue warnings to schools. In 2015 the system started to provide warnings to the public in Taiwan via television and the cell phone. Online performance of the eBEAR system indicated that the average reporting times afforded by the system are approximately 15 and 28 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively. The eBEAR system in average can provide more warning time than the current EEW system (3.2 s and 5.5 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively). However, offshore earthquakes were usually located poorly because only P-wave arrivals were used in the eBEAR system. Additionally, in the early stage of the earthquake early warning system, only fewer stations are available. The poor station coverage may be a reason to answer why offshore earthquakes are difficult to locate accurately. In the Geiger's inversion procedure of earthquake location, we need to put an initial hypocenter and origin time into the location program. For the initial hypocenter, we defined some test locations on the offshore area instead of using the average of locations from triggered stations. We performed 20 programs concurrently running the Geiger's method with different pre-defined initial position to locate earthquakes. We assume that if the program with the pre-defined initial position is close to the true earthquake location, during the iteration procedure of the Geiger's method the processing time of this program should be less than others. The results show that using pre-defined locations for trial-hypocenter in the inversion procedure is able to improve the accurate of offshore earthquakes. Especially for EEW system, in the initial stage of the EEW system, only use 3 or 5 stations to locate earthquakes may lead to bad results because of poor station coverage. In this study, the pre-defined trial-locations provide a feasible way to improve the estimations of

  13. Simulating Earthquake Early Warning Systems in the Classroom as a New Approach to Teaching Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Alessio, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    A discussion of P- and S-waves seems an ubiquitous part of studying earthquakes in the classroom. Textbooks from middle school through university level typically define the differences between the waves and illustrate the sense of motion. While many students successfully memorize the differences between wave types (often utilizing the first letter as a memory aide), textbooks rarely give tangible examples of how the two waves would "feel" to a person sitting on the ground. One reason for introducing the wave types is to explain how to calculate earthquake epicenters using seismograms and travel time charts -- very abstract representations of earthquakes. Even when the skill is mastered using paper-and-pencil activities or one of the excellent online interactive versions, locating an epicenter simply does not excite many of our students because it evokes little emotional impact, even in students located in earthquake-prone areas. Despite these limitations, huge numbers of students are mandated to complete the task. At the K-12 level, California requires that all students be able to locate earthquake epicenters in Grade 6; in New York, the skill is a required part of the Regent's Examination. Recent innovations in earthquake early warning systems around the globe give us the opportunity to address the same content standard, but with substantially more emotional impact on students. I outline a lesson about earthquakes focused on earthquake early warning systems. The introductory activities include video clips of actual earthquakes and emphasize the differences between the way P- and S-waves feel when they arrive (P arrives first, but is weaker). I include an introduction to the principle behind earthquake early warning (including a summary of possible uses of a few seconds warning about strong shaking) and show examples from Japan. Students go outdoors to simulate P-waves, S-waves, and occupants of two different cities who are talking to one another on cell phones

  14. Equilibrium Arrival Times to Queues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinbjerg, Jesper; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    a symmetric (mixed) Nash equilibrium, and show that there is at most one symmetric equilibrium. We provide a numerical method to compute this equilibrium and demonstrate by a numerical example that the social effciency can be lower than the effciency induced by a similar queueing system that serves customers...

  15. Real-time earthquake alert system for the greater San Francisco Bay Area: a prototype design to address operational issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harben, P.E.; Jarpe, S.; Hunter, S.

    1996-12-10

    The purpose of the earthquake alert system (EAS) is to outrun the seismic energy released in a large earthquake using a geographically distributed network of strong motion sensors that telemeter data to a rapid CPU-processing station, which then issues an area-wide warning to a region before strong motion will occur. The warning times involved are short, from 0 to 30 seconds or so; consequently, most responses must be automated. The San Francisco Bay Area is particularly well suited for an EAS because (1) large earthquakes have relatively shallow hypocenters (10- to 20-kilometer depth), giving favorable ray-path geometries for larger warning times than deeper from earthquakes, and (2) the active faults are few in number and well characterized, which means far fewer geographically distributed strong motion sensors are (about 50 in this region). An EAS prototype is being implemented in the San Francisco Bay Area. The system consists of four distinct subsystems: (1) a distributed strong motion seismic network, (2) a central processing station, (3) a warning communications system and (4) user receiver and response systems. We have designed a simple, reliable, and inexpensive strong motion monitoring station that consists of a three-component Analog Devices ADXLO5 accelerometer sensing unit, a vertical component weak motion sensor for system testing, a 16-bit digitizer with multiplexing, and communication output ports for RS232 modem or radio telemetry. The unit is battery-powered and will be sited in fire stations. The prototype central computer analysis system consists of a PC dam-acquisition platform that pipes the incoming strong motion data via Ethernet to Unix-based workstations for dam processing. Simple real-time algorithms, particularly for magnitude estimation, are implemented to give estimates of the time since the earthquake`s onset its hypocenter location, its magnitude, and the reliability of the estimate. These parameters are calculated and transmitted

  16. The effect of first waveform cut range to determine Mwp of large earthquake in Banda Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Y. H.; Wulandari, A.; Yatimantoro, T.

    2017-07-01

    The magnitude of the earthquake is one of the important parameters of earthquakes. The Moment magnitude (Mw) is a magnitude that best describes the strength of the earthquake. But determining Mw is very slow compared to the other magnitudes. We use Tsuboi et al,1995 formulation to determine the magnitude moment with a P wave (Mwp). We analyze 11 earthquakes in 2011-2015 with minimum Mw around 6 which have shallow to medium depth and using reference stations within 10-30 degrees from the epicenter of the earthquake. Our data references are Global Centroid Moment Tensor (Global CMT) data and the Incorporated Research Institution for Seismology (IRIS) data. We choose vertical component broadband data of the seismic waves 10 seconds before the time of P wave arrival to 130 seconds after the P wave arrival with interval 10 seconds. Our study area has a range coordinates between 125 E - 135 E and 9 S - 2.5 S. We found that the greater the magnitude of the earthquake the longer cut range required. The best time of cut range in the Mwp determination is 20 - 40 seconds of waveform cut range depend on the large of the earthquake magnitude. Our root mean square calculation are 0.158 that compared with IRIS data and 0.156 that compared with Global CMT.

  17. Effect of the number of request calls on the time from call to hospital arrival: a cross-sectional study of an ambulance record database in Nara prefecture, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanaki, Nao; Yamashita, Kazuto; Kunisawa, Susumu; Imanaka, Yuichi

    2016-12-09

    In Japan, ambulance staff sometimes must make request calls to find hospitals that can accept patients because of an inadequate information sharing system. This study aimed to quantify effects of the number of request calls on the time interval between an emergency call and hospital arrival. A cross-sectional study of an ambulance records database in Nara prefecture, Japan. A total of 43 663 patients (50% women; 31.2% aged 80 years and over): (1) transported by ambulance from April 2013 to March 2014, (2) aged 15 years and over, and (3) with suspected major illness. The time from call to hospital arrival, defined as the time interval from receipt of an emergency call to ambulance arrival at a hospital. The mean time interval from emergency call to hospital arrival was 44.5 min, and the mean number of requests was 1.8. Multilevel linear regression analysis showed that ∼43.8% of variations in transportation times were explained by patient age, sex, season, day of the week, time, category of suspected illness, person calling for the ambulance, emergency status at request call, area and number of request calls. A higher number of request calls was associated with longer time intervals to hospital arrival (addition of 6.3 min per request call; ptime for diseases needing cardiologists, neurologists, neurosurgeons and orthopaedists. The study revealed 6.3 additional minutes needed in transportation time for every refusal of a request call, and also revealed disease-specific delays among specific areas. An effective system should be collaboratively established by policymakers and physicians to ensure the rapid identification of an available hospital for patient transportation in order to reduce the time from the initial emergency call to hospital arrival. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  18. Earthquakes and plague during Byzantine times: can lessons from the past improve epidemic preparedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsiamis, Costas; Poulakou-Rebelakou, Effie; Marketos, Spyros

    2013-01-01

    Natural disasters have always been followed by a fear of infectious diseases. This raised historical debate about one of the most feared scenarios: the outbreak of bubonic plague caused by Yersinia pestis. One such event was recorded in the Indian state Maharashtra in 1994 after an earthquake. In multidisciplinary historical approach to the evolution of plague, many experts ignore the possibility of natural foci and their activation. This article presents historical records from the Byzantine Empire about outbreaks of the Plague of Justinian occurring months or even up to a year after high-magnitude earthquakes. Historical records of plague outbreaks can be used to document existence of natural foci all over the world. Knowledge of these historical records and the contemporary examples of plague support the assumption that, in terms of organising humanitarian aid, poor monitoring of natural foci could lead to unpredictable epidemiological consequences after high-magnitude earthquakes.

  19. Changes over six years in administration of aspirin and beta blockers on arrival and timely reperfusion and in in-hospital and 30-day postadmission mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filardo, Giovanni; Nicewander, David; Ballard, David J

    2011-05-15

    There is conflicting evidence regarding the impact of improving quality-of-care measures on patient outcomes. From July 2002 through June 2008, compliance with 3 in-hospital acute myocardial infarction quality-of-care measures (administration of aspirin and β blockers on arrival, timely reperfusion) and mortality were assessed in consecutive patients eligible for ≥1 of the measures at 8 hospitals (n = 6,826). Adjusted odds ratios for in-hospital and 30-day postadmission mortality and rate ratios for compliance with the 3 quality-of-care measures were calculated using marginal structural models to assess differences over time. Compliance with the 3 in-hospital quality-of-care measures improved significantly over the 6-year period. Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) revealed significant decreases in in-hospital mortality in cohorts eligible for aspirin at arrival (year 6 vs baseline 0.37, 0.22 to 0.65), β blockers at arrival (year 6 vs baseline 0.24, 0.11 to 0.52), and an "all-eligible" measure comprising aspirin at arrival, β blockers at arrival, and timely reperfusion (year 6 vs baseline 0.41, 0.24 to 0.69). Significant decreases in 30-day postadmission mortality followed the same pattern (aspirin at arrival 0.53, 0.35 to 0.80; β blockers at arrival 0.43, 0.26 to 0.73; all-eligible measure 0.54, 0.36 to 0.81). In conclusion, over the 6-year study period, the health care system's compliance with the 3 in-hospital quality-of-care measures and 30-day mortality improved significantly. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Identification of earthquakes that generate tsunamis in Java and Nusa Tenggara using rupture duration analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pribadi, S., E-mail: sugengpribadimsc@gmail.com [Tsunami Warning Information Division, Indonesian Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Jalan Angkasa I No. 2, Jakarta13920 and Graduate Student of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of T (Indonesia); Puspito, N. T.; Yudistira, T.; Afnimar,; Ibrahim, G. [Global Geophysics Research Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia); Laksono, B. I. [Database Maintenance Division, Indonesian Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Jalan Angkasa I No.2, Jakarta 13920 (Indonesia); Adnan, Z. [Database Maintenance Division, Indonesian Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Jalan Angkasa I No. 2, Jakarta 13920 and Graduate Student of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Bandung Institute of Technol (Indonesia)

    2014-09-25

    Java and Nusa Tenggara are the tectonically active of Sunda arc. This study discuss the rupture duration as a manifestation of the power of earthquake-generated tsunami. We use the teleseismic (30° - 90°) body waves with high-frequency energy Seismometer is from IRIS network as amount 206 broadband units. We applied the Butterworth high bandpass (1 - 2 Hz) filtered. The arrival and travel times started from wave phase of P - PP which based on Jeffrey Bullens table with TauP program. The results are that the June 2, 1994 Banyuwangi and the July 17, 2006 Pangandaran earthquakes identified as tsunami earthquakes with long rupture duration (To > 100 second), medium magnitude (7.6 < Mw < 7.9) and located near the trench. The others are 4 tsunamigenic earthquakes and 3 inland earthquakes with short rupture duration start from To > 50 second which depend on its magnitude. Those events are located far from the trench.

  1. Real-time performance of probabilistic, first-motion earthquake mechanisms to improve tsunami early-warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomax, Anthony; Michelni, Alberto; Bernardi, Fabrizio; Scognamiglio, Laura

    2017-04-01

    The first tsunami warning messages are typically based on simple earthquake parameters: epicenter location, hypocenter depth, and magnitude. The addition of early information on the faulting mechanism can enable more reliable estimates of seafloor uplift, tsunami excitation, tsunami potential and impact, and earlier, real-time tsunami scenario forecasting. Full-waveform, centroid moment tensor solutions (CMT) are typically available in 3-15min for local/near-regional earthquakes and in 10-30min for regional/teleseismic distances. In contrast, classic, P first-motion (FM) focal-mechanisms can be available within 3min for local/near-regional events and in 5-10 min for regional/teleseismic distances. We present fmamp, a robust, probabilistic, adaptive grid-search, FM mechanism determination procedure which generates a comprehensive set of "acceptable" FM mechanisms and related uncertainties. This FM solution, combined with fast magnitude estimates such as Mwp, forms a CMT proxy for rapid source characterization and analysis before a definitive, waveform CMT is available. Currently, fmamp runs in real-time in Early-est*, the module for rapid earthquake detection, location and analysis at the INGV tsunami alert center (CAT, "Centro di Allerta Tsunami"), part of the Italian, candidate Tsunami Watch Provider. We show the real-time performance of fmamp and compare its speed and accuracy to CMT results. For large earthquakes in areas of sparse seismic station coverage, fmamp mechanisms are typically available in 5-10min, while CMT results take 10-30min. The fmamp solutions usually agree with CMT results for larger events, but sometimes differ, due to insufficient or noisy FM readings, or real difference between the FM mechanism, representing the faulting at the hypocenter, and the CMT mechanism representing some average, centroid faulting. * http://early-est.alomax.net, http://early-est.rm.ingv.it, http://alomax.free.fr/posters/early-est

  2. Vessel Arrival Info - Legacy

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Vessel Arrival Info is a spreadsheet that gets filled out during the initial stage of the debriefing process by the debriefer. It contains vessel name, trip...

  3. Direction-of-arrival (DOA) tracking using improved direction lock loop with real-time bias correction for antenna array based GNSS receivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Gangqiang; Xian, Deyong; Zhang, Ke; Gao, Yang; Zhu, Xiangwei

    2017-12-01

    For the antenna array based Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers on a moving platform, the direction lock loop is a simple and effective method to achieve direction-of-arrival (DOA) tracking of GNSS signals. However, the discriminators used in the direction lock loop will introduce a noticeable DOA tracking bias when the true DOA is not zero. To solve this problem, an improved direction lock loop with real-time bias correction, which is independent of antenna array parameters, is proposed to achieve an unbiased DOA tracking in this paper. Then, three discriminators including coherent real part method, non-coherent amplitude method and non-coherent power method, are theoretically discussed, and further compared in terms of the output curve, convergence range, gain, mean square error (MSE). Finally, several typical simulation scenarios are designed for verifying the proposed method in accordance with the effects of DOA tracking with and without bias correction. Simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively track the signal DOA and significantly decrease the DOA tracking bias under different scenarios.

  4. Testing the critical exponent in the relation between stress drop of earthquake and lead time of seismic electric signal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Dologlou

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The application of new data in the power law relation between the stress drop of the earthquake and the lead time of the precursory seismic electric signal led to an exponent which falls in the range of the values of critical exponents for fracture and it is in excellent agreement with a previous one found by (Dologlou, 2012. In addition, this exponent is very close to the one reported by Varotsos and Alexopoulos (1984a, which interconnects the amplitude of the precursory seismic electric signals (SES and the magnitude of the impending earthquake. Hence, the hypothesis that underlying dynamic processes evolving to criticality prevail in the pre-focal area when the SES is emitted is significantly supported.

  5. Earthquake source parameters from GPS-measured static displacements with potential for real-time application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    O'Toole, T.B.; Valentine, A.P.; Woodhouse, J.H.

    2013-01-01

    We describe a method for determining an optimal centroid– moment tensor solution of an earthquake from a set of static displacements measured using a network of Global Positioning System receivers. Using static displacements observed after the 4 April 2010, MW 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah, Mexico,

  6. Mathematics Education in a Time of Earthquakes: Holding on and Letting Go

    Science.gov (United States)

    McChesney, Jane; Wilson, Susanna

    2016-01-01

    Two mathematics teacher educators describe their responses during a year disrupted by a serious earthquake and the ongoing effects on students and staff. We discuss our pedagogical responses to unforeseen changes in courses and in students' lives, including the re-calibrating of social relationships. We describe our work in a postgraduate course…

  7. The Effects of the Passage of Time from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake on the Public’s Anxiety about a Variety of Hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuya Nakayachi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This research investigated whether the Japanese people’s anxiety about a variety of hazards, including earthquakes and nuclear accidents, has changed over time since the Tohoku Earthquake in 2011. Data from three nationwide surveys conducted in 2008, 2012, and 2015 were compared to see the change in societal levels of anxiety toward 51 types of hazards. The same two-phase stratified random sampling method was used to create the list of participants in each survey. The results showed that anxiety about earthquakes and nuclear accidents had increased for a time after the Tohoku Earthquake, and then decreased after a four-year time frame with no severe earthquakes and nuclear accidents. It was also revealed that the anxiety level for some hazards other than earthquakes and nuclear accidents had decreased at ten months after the Earthquake, and then remained unchanged after the four years. Therefore, ironically, a major disaster might decrease the public anxiety in general at least for several years.

  8. The Australian Seismometers in Schools Network: promoting geoscience to high school students through real-time earthquake data recording

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sambridge, Malcolm; Balfour, Natalie; Salmon, Michelle; ONeill, Craig

    2013-04-01

    The Australian Seismometers in Schools program (AuSIS) has just completed year one of its initial four-year program. The year has been filled with excitement as we completed installing pilot instruments in schools, launched the program nationally and received over 110 "Expressions of Interest" from schools around Australia. The data quality has exceeded expectations with schools recording local earthquakes down to magnitude 1, and large distant earthquakes. Some students participate in the program by looking up earthquake locations on maps and learning about geography, while other more advanced students have been investigating the frequency characteristics and sources of noise at their school. Both students and the schools are particularly proud that their instrument is contributing to the global scientific community and are actively incorporating seismology into the school curriculum. AuSIS is funded by the Education component of AuScope Australian Geophysical Observing System. By mid-2014 we will build a network of 40 seismometers in high schools across the nation to provide real-time monitoring of the Australian continent and raise awareness of geoscience through observing our dynamic earth in motion. This program is unique to other seismometers in schools programs as it uses professional seismometers to provide research quality data to the seismological community. The AuSIS project's educational aims are to: • Raise community awareness of earthquakes; • Raise awareness of seismology and geoscience, as a field of study; • Promote science as a possible career; • Provide a tool to teachers to assist in teaching physics and earth science. The data schools collect is useful to researchers and will complement networks run by government and state agencies due to the high quality of the instruments and will be stored at internationally accessible and supported data management centres, such as IRIS. Data collected during the pilot program have provided clear

  9. GLASS 2.0: An Operational, Multimodal, Bayesian Earthquake Data Association Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benz, H.; Johnson, C. E.; Patton, J. M.; McMahon, N. D.; Earle, P. S.

    2015-12-01

    The legacy approach to automated detection and determination of hypocenters is arrival time stacking algorithms. Examples of such algorithms are the associator, Binder, which has been in continuous use in many USGS-supported regional seismic networks since the 1980s and the spherical earth successor, GLASS 1.0, currently in service at the USGS National Earthquake Information Center for over 10 years. The principle short-comings of the legacy approach are 1) it can only use phase arrival times, 2) it does not adequately address the problems of extreme variations in station density worldwide, 3) it cannot incorporate multiple phase models or statistical attributes of phases with distance, and 4) it cannot incorporate noise model attributes of individual stations. Previously we introduced a theoretical framework of a new associator using a Bayesian kernel stacking approach to approximate a joint probability density function for hypocenter localization. More recently we added station- and phase-specific Bayesian constraints to the association process. GLASS 2.0 incorporates a multiplicity of earthquake related data including phase arrival times, back-azimuth and slowness information from array beamforming, arrival times from waveform cross correlation processing, and geographic constraints from real-time social media reports of ground shaking. We demonstrate its application by modeling an aftershock sequence using dozens of stations that recorded tens of thousands of earthquakes over a period of one month. We also demonstrate Glass 2.0 performance regionally and teleseismically using the globally distributed real-time monitoring system at NEIC.

  10. Building vulnerability and human loss assessment in different earthquake intensity and time: a case study of the University of the Philippines, Los Baños (UPLB) Campus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusydy, I.; Faustino-Eslava, D. V.; Muksin, U.; Gallardo-Zafra, R.; Aguirre, J. J. C.; Bantayan, N. C.; Alam, L.; Dakey, S.

    2017-02-01

    Study on seismic hazard, building vulnerability and human loss assessment become substantial for building education institutions since the building are used by a lot of students, lecturers, researchers, and guests. The University of the Philippines, Los Banos (UPLB) located in an earthquake prone area. The earthquake could cause structural damage and injury of the UPLB community. We have conducted earthquake assessment in different magnitude and time to predict the posibility of ground shaking, building vulnerability and estimated the number of casualty of the UPLB community. The data preparation in this study includes the earthquake scenario modeling using Intensity Prediction Equations (IPEs) for shallow crustal shaking attenuation to produce intensity map of bedrock and surface. Earthquake model was generated from the segment IV and the segment X of the Valley Fault System (VFS). Building vulnerability of different type of building was calculated using fragility curve of the Philippines building. The population data for each building in various occupancy time, damage ratio, and injury ratio data were used to compute the number of casualties. The result reveals that earthquake model from the segment IV and the segment X of the VFS could generate earthquake intensity between 7.6 - 8.1 MMI in the UPLB campus. The 7.7 Mw earthquake (scenario I) from the segment IV could cause 32% - 51% damage of building and 6.5 Mw earthquake (scenario II) occurring in the segment X could cause 18% - 39% structural damage of UPLB buildings. If the earthquake occurs at 2 PM (day-time), it could injure 10.2% - 18.8% for the scenario I and could injure 7.2% - 15.6% of UPLB population in scenario II. The 5 Pm event, predicted will injure 5.1%-9.4% in the scenario I, and 3.6%-7.8% in scenario II. A nighttime event (2 Am) cause injury to students and guests who stay in dormitories. The earthquake is predicted to injure 13 - 66 students and guests in the scenario I and 9 - 47 people in the

  11. Earthquake and failure forecasting in real-time: A Forecasting Model Testing Centre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filgueira, Rosa; Atkinson, Malcolm; Bell, Andrew; Main, Ian; Boon, Steven; Meredith, Philip

    2013-04-01

    Across Europe there are a large number of rock deformation laboratories, each of which runs many experiments. Similarly there are a large number of theoretical rock physicists who develop constitutive and computational models both for rock deformation and changes in geophysical properties. Here we consider how to open up opportunities for sharing experimental data in a way that is integrated with multiple hypothesis testing. We present a prototype for a new forecasting model testing centre based on e-infrastructures for capturing and sharing data and models to accelerate the Rock Physicist (RP) research. This proposal is triggered by our work on data assimilation in the NERC EFFORT (Earthquake and Failure Forecasting in Real Time) project, using data provided by the NERC CREEP 2 experimental project as a test case. EFFORT is a multi-disciplinary collaboration between Geoscientists, Rock Physicists and Computer Scientist. Brittle failure of the crust is likely to play a key role in controlling the timing of a range of geophysical hazards, such as volcanic eruptions, yet the predictability of brittle failure is unknown. Our aim is to provide a facility for developing and testing models to forecast brittle failure in experimental and natural data. Model testing is performed in real-time, verifiably prospective mode, in order to avoid selection biases that are possible in retrospective analyses. The project will ultimately quantify the predictability of brittle failure, and how this predictability scales from simple, controlled laboratory conditions to the complex, uncontrolled real world. Experimental data are collected from controlled laboratory experiments which includes data from the UCL Laboratory and from Creep2 project which will undertake experiments in a deep-sea laboratory. We illustrate the properties of the prototype testing centre by streaming and analysing realistically noisy synthetic data, as an aid to generating and improving testing methodologies in

  12. Earthquakes and submarine volcanism in the Northeast Pacific: Exploration in the time domain based on 21-years of hydroacoustic monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, S. R.; Dziak, R. P.; Fox, C. G.

    2012-12-01

    Monitoring of regional seismic activity in the Northeast Pacific has been accomplished for the past 21 years using US Navy's Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS) hydrophone arrays. Seafloor seismic activity in this region occurs along the spreading center and transform boundaries between the Juan de Fuca, Pacific and North American plates. During the time span, from 1991 through 2011, nearly 50,000 earthquakes were detected and located. The majority of these events were associated with these tectonic boundaries but sections of several plate boundaries were largely aseismic during the this time span. While most of the earthquakes were associated with geological structures revealed in bathymetric maps of the region, there were also less easily explained intraplate events including a swarm of events within the interior of the southern portion of the Juan de Fuca plate. The location and sequential timing of events on portions of the plate boundaries also suggests ordered patterns of stress release. Among the most scientifically significant outcomes of acoustic monitoring was the discovery that deep seafloor magmatic activity can be accompanied by intense (> 1000 events/day) earthquake swarms. The first swarm detected by SOSUS, in 1993, was confirmed to have been associated with an extrusive volcanic eruption which occurred along a segment of the Juan de Fuca spreading center. Notably, this was the first deep spreading center eruption detected, located, and studied while it was active. Subsequently, two more swarms were confirmed to have been associated with volcanic eruptions, one on the Gorda spreading center in 1996 and the other at Axial volcano in 1998. One characteristic of these swarm events is migration of their earthquake locations 10s of km along the ridge axis tracking the movement of magma down-rift. The most rapid magma propagation events have been shown to be associated with seafloor eruptions and dramatic, transient changes in hydrothermal circulation as

  13. Advancements in near real time mapping of earthquake and rainfall induced landslides in the Avcilar Peninsula, Marmara Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coccia, Stella

    2014-05-01

    Stella COCCIA (1), Fiona THEOLEYRE (1), Pascal BIGARRE(1) , Semih ERGINTAV(2), Oguz OZEL(3) and Serdar ÖZALAYBEY(4) (1) National Institute of Industrial Environment and Risks (INERIS) Nancy, France, (2) Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), Istanbul, Turkey, (3) Istanbul University (IU), Istanbul, Turkey, (4) TUBITAK MAM, Istanbul, Turkey The European Project MARsite (http://marsite.eu/), started in 2012 and leaded by the KOERI, aims to improve seismic risk evaluation and preparedness to face the next dreadful large event expected for the next three decades. MARsite is thus expected to move a "step forward" the most advanced monitoring technologies, and offering promising open databases to the worldwide scientific community in the frame of other European environmental large-scale infrastructures, such as EPOS (http://www.epos-eu.org/ ). Among the 11 work packages (WP), the main aim of the WP6 is to study seismically-induced landslide hazard, by using and improving observing and monitoring systems in geological, hydrogeotechnical and seismic onshore and offshore areas. One of the WP6 specific study area is the Avcilar Peninsula, situated between Kucukcekmece and Buyukcekmece Lakes in the north-west of the region of Marmara. There, more than 400 landslides are located. According to geological and geotechnical investigations and studies, soil movements of this area are related to underground water and pore pressure changes, seismic forces arising after earthquakes and decreasing sliding strength in fissured and heavily consolidated clays. The WP6 includes various tasks and one of these works on a methodology to develop a dynamic system to create combined earthquake and rainfall induced landslides hazard maps at near real time and automatically. This innovative system could be used to improve the prevention strategy as well as in disaster management and relief operations. Base on literature review a dynamic GIS platform is used to combine

  14. Earthquakes in British Columbia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1991-01-01

    This pamphlet provides information about the causes of earthquakes, where earthquakes occur, British Columbia plate techtonics, earthquake patterns, earthquake intensity, geology and earthquake impact...

  15. Real-Time Science on Social Media: The Example of Twitter in the Minutes, Hours, Days after the 2015 M7.8 Nepal Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomax, A.; Bossu, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.

    2015-12-01

    Scientific information on disasters such as earthquakes typically comes firstly from official organizations, news reports and interviews with experts, and later from scientific presentations and peer-reviewed articles. With the advent of the Internet and social media, this information is available in real-time from automated systems and within a dynamic, collaborative interaction between scientific experts, responders and the public. After the 2015 M7.8 Nepal earthquake, Twitter Tweets from earth scientists* included information, analysis, commentary and discussion on earthquake parameters (location, size, mechanism, rupture extent, high-frequency radiation, …), earthquake effects (distribution of felt shaking and damage, triggered seismicity, landslides, …), earthquake rumors (e.g. the imminence of a larger event) and other earthquake information and observations (aftershock forecasts, statistics and maps, source and regional tectonics, seismograms, GPS, InSAR, photos/videos, …).In the future (while taking into account security, false or erroneous information and identity verification), collaborative, real-time science on social media after a disaster will give earlier and better scientific understanding and dissemination of public information, and enable improved emergency response and disaster management.* A sample of scientific Tweets after the 2015 Nepal earthquake: In the first minutes: "mb5.9 Mwp7.4 earthquake Nepal 2015.04.25-06:11:25UTC", "Major earthquake shakes Nepal 8 min ago", "Epicenter between Pokhara and Kathmandu", "Major earthquake shakes Nepal 18 min ago. Effects derived from witnesses' reports". In the first hour: "shallow thrust faulting to North under Himalayas", "a very large and shallow event ... Mw7.6-7.7", "aftershocks extend east and south of Kathmandu, so likely ruptured beneath city", "Valley-blocking landslides must be a very real worry". In the first day: "M7.8 earthquake in Nepal 2hr ago: destructive in Kathmandu Valley and

  16. Improvements to Earthquake Location with a Fuzzy Logic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gökalp, Hüseyin

    2018-01-01

    In this study, improvements to the earthquake location method were investigated using a fuzzy logic approach proposed by Lin and Sanford (Bull Seismol Soc Am 91:82-93, 2001). The method has certain advantages compared to the inverse methods in terms of eliminating the uncertainties of arrival times and reading errors. In this study, adopting this approach, epicentral locations were determined based on the results of a fuzzy logic space concerning the uncertainties in the velocity models. To map the uncertainties in arrival times into the fuzzy logic space, a trapezoidal membership function was constructed by directly using the travel time difference between the two stations for the P- and S-arrival times instead of the P- and S-wave models to eliminate the need for obtaining information concerning the velocity structure of the study area. The results showed that this method worked most effectively when earthquakes occurred away from a network or when the arrival time data contained phase reading errors. In this study, to resolve the problems related to determining the epicentral locations of the events, a forward modeling method like the grid search technique was used by applying different logical operations (i.e., intersection, union, and their combination) with a fuzzy logic approach. The locations of the events were depended on results of fuzzy logic outputs in fuzzy logic space by searching in a gridded region. The process of location determination with the defuzzification of only the grid points with the membership value of 1 obtained by normalizing all the maximum fuzzy output values of the highest values resulted in more reliable epicentral locations for the earthquakes than the other approaches. In addition, throughout the process, the center-of-gravity method was used as a defuzzification operation.

  17. Real time earthquake information and tsunami estimation system for Indonesia, Philippines and Central-South American regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido Hernandez, N. E.; Inazu, D.; Saito, T.; Senda, J.; Fukuyama, E.; Kumagai, H.

    2015-12-01

    Southeast Asia as well as Central-South American regions are within the most active seismic regions in the world. To contribute to the understanding of source process of earthquakes the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention NIED maintains the international seismic Network (ISN) since 2007. Continuous seismic waveforms from 294 broadband seismic stations in Indonesia, Philippines, and Central-South America regions are received in real time at NIED, and used for automatic location of seismic events. Using these data we perform automatic and manual estimation of moment tensor of seismic events (Mw>4.5) by using the SWIFT program developed at NIED. We simulate the propagation of local tsunamis in these regions using a tsunami simulation code and visualization system developed at NIED, combined with CMT parameters estimated by SWIFT. The goals of the system are to provide a rapid and reliable earthquake and tsunami information in particular for large seismic, and produce an appropriate database of earthquake source parameters and tsunami simulations for research. The system uses the hypocenter location and magnitude of earthquakes automatically determined at NIED by the SeisComP3 system (GFZ) from the continuous seismic waveforms in the region, to perform the automated calculation of moment tensors by SWIFT, and then carry out the automatic simulation and visualization of tsunami. The system generates maps of maximum tsunami heights within the target regions and along the coasts and display them with the fault model parameters used for tsunami simulations. Tsunami calculations are performed for all events with available automatic SWIFT/CMT solutions. Tsunami calculations are re-computed using SWIFT manual solutions for events with Mw>5.5 and centroid depths shallower than 100 km. Revised maximum tsunami heights as well as animation of tsunami propagation are also calculated and displayed for the two double couple solutions by SWIFT

  18. LHCb magnet coils arrive

    CERN Multimedia

    Maximilien Brice

    2003-01-01

    Each of the two coils for the LHCb magnet comprises 15 individual monolayer 'pancakes' of identical trapezoidal racetrack shape, and is bent at 45 degrees on the two transverse sides. Each pancake consists of eight turns of conductor, wound from a single length (approx. 290 m) of extruded aluminium. The coils have arrived at CERN; one of them is seen here being unloaded above the LHCb experimental cavern.

  19. Seven years of postseismic deformation following the 2003 Mw = 6.8 Zemmouri earthquake (Algeria) from InSAR time series

    KAUST Repository

    Cetin, Esra

    2012-05-28

    We study the postseismic surface deformation of the Mw 6.8, 2003 Zemmouri earthquake (northern Algeria) using the Multi-Temporal Small Baseline InSAR technique. InSAR time series obtained from 31 Envisat ASAR images from 2003 to 2010 reveal sub-cm coastline ground movements between Cap Matifou and Dellys. Two regions display subsidence at a maximum rate of 2 mm/yr in Cap Djenet and 3.5 mm/yr in Boumerdes. These regions correlate well with areas of maximum coseismic uplifts, and their association with two rupture segments. Inverse modeling suggest that subsidence in the areas of high coseismic uplift can be explained by afterslip on shallow sections (<5 km) of the fault above the areas of coseismic slip, in agreement with previous GPS observations. The earthquake impact on soft sediments and the ground water table southwest of the earthquake area, characterizes ground deformation of non-tectonic origin. The cumulative postseismic moment due to 7 years afterslip is equivalent to an Mw 6.3 earthquake. Therefore, the postseismic deformation and stress buildup has significant implications on the earthquake cycle models and recurrence intervals of large earthquakes in the Algiers area.

  20. Seismologically-consistent prediction of earthquake induced landsliding: Towards near-real time prediction of total landslide volume, total landslide area and regional area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc, Odin; Hovius, Niels; Meunier, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    risks associated with earthquake scenari. It could also be used to estimate earthquake-induced landsliding magnitude and region of occurrence in near-real time, based on available earthquake parameters detection routine.

  1. Test of a Threshold‐Based Earthquake Early‐Warning Method Using Japanese Data

    OpenAIRE

    Colombelli, Simona; Amoroso, Ortensia; Zollo, Aldo; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2012-01-01

    Most of existing earthquake early‐warning systems are regional or on‐site systems. A new concept is the integration of these approaches for the definition of alert levels and the estimation of the earthquake potential damage zone (PDZ). The key element of the method is the real‐time, simultaneous measurement of initial peak displacement (P_d) and period parameter (τ_c) in a 3‐s window after the first P‐wave arrival time at accelerometer stations located at increasing distances from the epicen...

  2. Short-term volcano-tectonic earthquake forecasts based on a moving mean recurrence time algorithm: the El Hierro seismo-volcanic crisis experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Alicia; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Marrero, José M.; Ortiz, Ramón

    2016-05-01

    Under certain conditions, volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes may pose significant hazards to people living in or near active volcanic regions, especially on volcanic islands; however, hazard arising from VT activity caused by localized volcanic sources is rarely addressed in the literature. The evolution of VT earthquakes resulting from a magmatic intrusion shows some orderly behaviour that may allow the occurrence and magnitude of major events to be forecast. Thus governmental decision makers can be supplied with warnings of the increased probability of larger-magnitude earthquakes on the short-term timescale. We present here a methodology for forecasting the occurrence of large-magnitude VT events during volcanic crises; it is based on a mean recurrence time (MRT) algorithm that translates the Gutenberg-Richter distribution parameter fluctuations into time windows of increased probability of a major VT earthquake. The MRT forecasting algorithm was developed after observing a repetitive pattern in the seismic swarm episodes occurring between July and November 2011 at El Hierro (Canary Islands). From then on, this methodology has been applied to the consecutive seismic crises registered at El Hierro, achieving a high success rate in the real-time forecasting, within 10-day time windows, of volcano-tectonic earthquakes.

  3. Exploration of fault-zone trapped waves at Pingtong Town, in Wenchuan earthquake region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoling Lai

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Pingtong Town is located on the fractured zone of the Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake, and is seriously damaged by the earthquake. Our observation line is centered at an earthquake exploration trench across the fractured zone in the NW-SE direction, and is about 400 m long. The results reveal trapped waves in the ruptured fault zone of the earthquake, and indicate a great difference in physical property between the media inside and outside the fault zone. The predominant frequency of the fault-zone trapped waves is about 3 – 4 Hz. The wave amplitudes are larger near the exploration trench. The width of the fault zone in the crust at this location is estimated to be 200 m. In some records, the waveforms and the arrival times of S waves are quite different between the two sides of the trench. The place of change coincides with the boundary of uplift at the surface.

  4. Investigation of the Relationship Between Ionospheric TEC Anomaly Variations and Fault Types Before the Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulukavak, M.; Yalçınkaya, M.

    2017-11-01

    Earthquakes are natural phenomena that shake the earth and cause many damage. Since the time of arrival of the earthquakes cannot be determined directly, some signs before the earthquake should be examined and interpreted by examining the environmental changes. One of the methods used for this is monitoring the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) changes in total electron content unit (TECU). GPS satellites have begun to be used as a means of monitoring ionospheric TEC anomalies before earthquakes since they began to be used as sensors around the world. In this study, three fault type (normal, thrust and strike-slip faulting) of 28 earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 7 (Mw) and the percentage changes of TEC anomalies before the earthquakes were investigated. The ionospheric TEC anomalies before the earthquake were calculated according to the 15-day running median statistical analysis method. Different solar and geomagnetic indices have been investigated to determine the active space weather conditions and quiet days before and after the earthquake. The TEC anomalies were determined during the quiet days before the earthquake by comparing the ionospheric anomalies that occurred before the earthquake after the determination of quiet days with the indices of the space weather conditions. The results show that there is a relationship between fault type and the earthquake precursor percentage changes and were determined as 47.6 % TECU for regions where normal faulting, 50.4 % TECU for regions where thrust faulting, and 44.2 % TECU for regions where strike-slip faulting occurred, respectively.

  5. Great Sumatra Earthquake registers on electrostatic sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röder, Helmut; Schuhmann, Wolfram; Büttner, Ralf; Zimanowski, Bernard; Braun, Thomas; Boschi, Enzo

    Strong electrical signals that correspond to the Mw = 9.3 earthquake of 26 December 2004, whichoccurred at 0058:50.7 UTC off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, were recorded by an electrostatic sensor (a device that detects short-term variations in Earth's electrostatic field) at a seismic station in Italy, which had been installed to study the influence of local earthquakes on a new landslide monitoring system.Electrical signals arrived at the station practically instantaneously and were detected up to several hours before the onset of the Sumatra earthquake (Figure 1) as well as before local quakes. The corresponding seismic signals (p-waves) arrived 740 seconds after the start of the earthquake. Because the electrical signals travel at the speed of light, electrical monitoring for the global detection of very strong earthquakes could be an important tool in significantly increasing the hazard alert window.

  6. Seismogeodesy for rapid earthquake and tsunami characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Rapid estimation of earthquake magnitude and fault mechanism is critical for earthquake and tsunami warning systems. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. These methods are well developed for ocean basin-wide warnings but are not timely enough to protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure from the effects of local tsunamis, where waves may arrive within 15-30 minutes of earthquake onset time. Direct measurements of displacements by GPS networks at subduction zones allow for rapid magnitude and slip estimation in the near-source region, that are not affected by instrumental limitations and magnitude saturation experienced by local seismic networks. However, GPS displacements by themselves are too noisy for strict earthquake early warning (P-wave detection). Optimally combining high-rate GPS and seismic data (in particular, accelerometers that do not clip), referred to as seismogeodesy, provides a broadband instrument that does not clip in the near field, is impervious to magnitude saturation, and provides accurate real-time static and dynamic displacements and velocities in real time. Here we describe a NASA-funded effort to integrate GPS and seismogeodetic observations as part of NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii. It consists of a series of plug-in modules that allow for a hierarchy of rapid seismogeodetic products, including automatic P-wave picking, hypocenter estimation, S-wave prediction, magnitude scaling relationships based on P-wave amplitude (Pd) and peak ground displacement (PGD), finite-source CMT solutions and fault slip models as input for tsunami warnings and models. For the NOAA/NASA project, the modules are being integrated into an existing USGS Earthworm environment, currently limited to traditional seismic data. We are focused on a network of

  7. Limiting the Effects of Earthquake Shaking on Gravitational-Wave Interferometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, M. R.; Earle, P. S.; Guy, M. R.; Harms, J.; Coughlin, M.; Biscans, S.; Buchanan, C.; Coughlin, E.; Fee, J.; Mukund, N.

    2016-12-01

    Second-generation ground-based gravitational wave interferometers such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) are susceptible to high-amplitude waves from teleseismic events, which can cause astronomical detectors to fall out of mechanical lock (lockloss). This causes the data to be useless for gravitational wave detection around the time of the seismic arrivals and for several hours thereafter while the detector stabilizes enough to return to the locked state. The down time can be reduced if advance warning of impending shaking is received and the impact is suppressed in the isolation system with the goal of maintaining lock even at the expense of increased instrumental noise. Here we describe an early warning system for modern gravitational-wave observatories. The system relies on near real-time earthquake alerts provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Hypocenter and magnitude information is typically available within 5 to 20 minutes of the origin time of significant earthquakes, generally before the arrival of high-amplitude waves from these teleseisms at LIGO. These alerts are used to estimate arrival times and ground velocities at the gravitational wave detectors. In general, 94% of the predictions for ground-motion amplitude are within a factor of 5 of measured values. The error in both arrival time and ground-motion prediction introduced by using preliminary, rather than final, hypocenter and magnitude information is minimal with about 90% of the events falling within a factor of 2 of the final predicted value. By using a Machine Learning Algorithm, we develop a lockloss prediction model that calculates the probability that a given earthquake will prevent a detector from taking data. Our initial results indicate that by using detector control configuration changes, we could save lockloss from 40-100 earthquake events in a 6-month time-period.

  8. The development of online real-time multiple-source moment tensor inversion technique for moderate-to-large earthquakes in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, T.; Lee, S.; Ma, K.

    2013-12-01

    The point-source parameters of earthquake with small-to-moderate size (Mwrupture processes for events involving more complexities (multiple sub-events, variation in focal mechanism...etc), especially those with greater sizes (Mw>6.5), we propose a multiple-source moment tensor inversion technique. Frequency band used in this inversion procedure is magnitude adopted. The number of sub-events increases successively where source locations and time delays are optimized. We evaluate the statistical significance of misfit reduction due to every inclusion of extra sub-event by analyzing the residual of current model with respect to the previous model using less number of sub-events. Process stops when the misfit fails to be reduced significantly by including extra sub-events. We perform several synthetic tests to examine the resolvability and limitation of this approach. Results suggest that locations, time delays, and focal mechanisms can be well resolved even with limited station coverage. Four significant earthquakes, occurred in Taiwan are chosen as case studies, including the 20020331 Mw 7.1 Northeastern earthquake, the 20031210 Chengkung Mw 6.8 earthquake, the 20061226 Mw 7.1 Pingtung earthquake, and the 19990920 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake. The multiple-source model yields simple and robust determination of complex seismic source features. Sub-events determined through the proposed technique are also compared with asperities derived in finite-fault models. By taking advantage of real-time determination in overall feature of seismic sources, this approach provides a better assessment in the following hazard mitigation. Alternatively, the space-time relations and focal mechanisms of sub-events can also provide additional constraints in determination of the ruptured fault plane.

  9. Application of Collocated GPS and Seismic Sensors to Earthquake Monitoring and Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bofeng Guo

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We explore the use of collocated GPS and seismic sensors for earthquake monitoring and early warning. The GPS and seismic data collected during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Japan and the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico earthquakes are analyzed by using a tightly-coupled integration. The performance of the integrated results is validated by both time and frequency domain analysis. We detect the P-wave arrival and observe small-scale features of the movement from the integrated results and locate the epicenter. Meanwhile, permanent offsets are extracted from the integrated displacements highly accurately and used for reliable fault slip inversion and magnitude estimation.

  10. Application of collocated GPS and seismic sensors to earthquake monitoring and early warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xingxing; Zhang, Xiaohong; Guo, Bofeng

    2013-10-24

    We explore the use of collocated GPS and seismic sensors for earthquake monitoring and early warning. The GPS and seismic data collected during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Japan) and the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico) earthquakes are analyzed by using a tightly-coupled integration. The performance of the integrated results is validated by both time and frequency domain analysis. We detect the P-wave arrival and observe small-scale features of the movement from the integrated results and locate the epicenter. Meanwhile, permanent offsets are extracted from the integrated displacements highly accurately and used for reliable fault slip inversion and magnitude estimation.

  11. Integrating landslide and liquefaction hazard and loss estimates with existing USGS real-time earthquake information products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allstadt, Kate E.; Thompson, Eric M.; Hearne, Mike; Nowicki Jessee, M. Anna; Zhu, J.; Wald, David J.; Tanyas, Hakan

    2017-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has made significant progress toward the rapid estimation of shaking and shakingrelated losses through their Did You Feel It? (DYFI), ShakeMap, ShakeCast, and PAGER products. However, quantitative estimates of the extent and severity of secondary hazards (e.g., landsliding, liquefaction) are not currently included in scenarios and real-time post-earthquake products despite their significant contributions to hazard and losses for many events worldwide. We are currently running parallel global statistical models for landslides and liquefaction developed with our collaborators in testing mode, but much work remains in order to operationalize these systems. We are expanding our efforts in this area by not only improving the existing statistical models, but also by (1) exploring more sophisticated, physics-based models where feasible; (2) incorporating uncertainties; and (3) identifying and undertaking research and product development to provide useful landslide and liquefaction estimates and their uncertainties. Although our existing models use standard predictor variables that are accessible globally or regionally, including peak ground motions, topographic slope, and distance to water bodies, we continue to explore readily available proxies for rock and soil strength as well as other susceptibility terms. This work is based on the foundation of an expanding, openly available, case-history database we are compiling along with historical ShakeMaps for each event. The expected outcome of our efforts is a robust set of real-time secondary hazards products that meet the needs of a wide variety of earthquake information users. We describe the available datasets and models, developments currently underway, and anticipated products. 

  12. Further evidence for the compound nature of slow earthquakes: The Prince Edward Island earthquake of April 28, 1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Jeffrey J.; Jordan, Thomas H.

    2000-04-01

    Seismograms of the April 28, 1997, Prince Edward island transform fault earthquake (Mw 6.8) show clear evidence for the superposition of two types of rupture, a normal earthquake and a slow component which primarily radiated energy at low frequencies. We combined low-frequency spectral data with P waveform data to invert for a source time function that satisfied data from 0.001 to 2.5 Hz. The results show that the earthquake started with a slow event which began ˜15 s before the fast mainshock and was part of a slow earthquake which lasted over 30 s. The smoothness of the initial event is inferred from the low amplitude of high-frequency energy at regional stations during the initial portion of the P wave arrival. Directivity analysis shows that the two components of the rupture occurred on different faults. The slow event occurred on the main transform, and the fast event occurred on a parallel fault 40 km to the east. A similar compound sequence, involving both slow and fast components and rupture on multiple faults, occurred on the Romanche transform in 1994. These and other results for slow earthquakes suggest that many large events on oceanic transform faults are compound events.

  13. HYDROACOUSTIC OBSERVATIONS OF WEAK EARTHQUAKES IN SHALLOW WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN KURIL ISLANDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander S. Borisov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Results of hydroacoustic observations of signals from weak earthquakes in natural conditions in the region of the Southern Kuril Islands are presented. Some earthquakes were registered by the the Yuzhno-Kurilsk Seismic Station, other were only recorded by hydrophone stations. The observations were specific as seismic signals were recorded in shallow waters, i.e. in high noise level conditions. Hydrophones were installed in Lake Lagunnoe (Kunashir and Khromovaya Bay (Shikotan. Our analysis of hydroacoustic records received from the hydrophone stations revealed no evident precursory response of the geological medium to weak distant events. This means that neither before the period of earthquake preparation nor during the earthquake preparation period, any geoacoustic emission was not detected. It is shown that despite the unfavourable noise level conditions, even distant weak earthquakes can be confidently registered by hydrophone stations, and pending application of proper signal processing techniques, it can be possible to determine arrival times of seismic waves and to measure parameters of seismic waves. It is also established that the frequency spectrum of acoustic signals from the weak earthquakes recordable by the hydrophone stations is continuous and of noise type in the frequency range up to 90–100 Hz. It is revealed that in some cases, weak earthquakes and microearthquakes may be forerun by low frequency signals.

  14. HYDROACOUSTIC OBSERVATIONS OF WEAK EARTHQUAKES IN SHALLOW WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN KURIL ISLANDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander S. Borisov

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Results of hydroacoustic observations of signals from weak earthquakes in natural conditions in the region of the Southern Kuril Islands are presented. Some earthquakes were registered by the the Yuzhno-Kurilsk Seismic Station, other were only recorded by hydrophone stations. The observations were specific as seismic signals were recorded in shallow waters, i.e. in high noise level conditions. Hydrophones were installed in Lake Lagunnoe (Kunashir and Khromovaya Bay (Shikotan. Our analysis of hydroacoustic records received from the hydrophone stations revealed no evident precursory response of the geological medium to weak distant events. This means that neither before the period of earthquake preparation nor during the earthquake preparation period, any geoacoustic emission was not detected. It is shown that despite the unfavourable noise level conditions, even distant weak earthquakes can be confidently registered by hydrophone stations, and pending application of proper signal processing techniques, it can be possible to determine arrival times of seismic waves and to measure parameters of seismic waves. It is also established that the frequency spectrum of acoustic signals from the weak earthquakes recordable by the hydrophone stations is continuous and of noise type in the frequency range up to 90–100 Hz. It is revealed that in some cases, weak earthquakes and microearthquakes may be forerun by low frequency signals.

  15. A statistical analysis of electric self-potential time series associated to two 1993 earthquakes in Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Flores-Márquez

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies related with earthquake prediction involve statistical studies of the ground electric self-potential behavior. Published results about the complexity of this kind of processes encourage us to study the statistical behavior of the ground electric self-potential recorded in Guerrero state, Mexico. This region is characterized by high seismicity. The electric self-potential variations were recorded in the Acapulco station directly from the ground. The sampling period was four seconds and the data were stored from March to December of 1993. Two significant earthquakes (EQs occurred near this station, 15 May and 24 October whose magnitudes were Mw=6.0 and Mw=6.6 respectively. A preliminary processing was carried out consisting of a moving average of the original time series in order to filter the very high frequencies and to complete short lacks of data and outliers. Then, a visual inspection of the complete filtered signal was performed to search some seismic electric signals (SES, which were ambiguously depicted. Subsequently, a detrending of µ=0 was applied with the windows of 3.3, 6.6 and 10 h. Later, the analysis of the spectral exponent β was made, showing changes during the total period examined, and the most evident changes occurred during the preparation mechanism of the Mw=6.6 EQ. Fifteen days before the 24 October EQ, a Brownian-noise like behavior was displayed (β≈2, having a duration of about two days. In addition a Higuchi fractal method and wavelet analysis were made confirming the presence of the β-anomaly.

  16. Legal issues of humanitarian assistance after the 2007 earthquake in Pisco, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bambarén, Celso

    2010-01-01

    The earthquake that struck the central coast of Peru on 15 August 2007 was a disaster that mobilized international humanitarian assistance to address the needs of the affected people in the regions of Huancavelica, Ica, and Lima. It also was an opportunity to prove the effectiveness of regulations and procedures to facilitate the entry and distribution of donations and medical goods during a major emergency. In the first month after the earthquake, the national government approved new regulations that aimed to reduce waiting time while reducing the number of requisites required by customs. More than 5,500 tons of international donations arrived in Peru in a short period of time. Many donated medicines arrived unsorted, without an international non-proprietary (generic) name on the label, and some medicines did not have any relationship with the diseases that would appear in the aftermath of the event.

  17. Characteristics of Viscoelastic Crustal Deformation Following a Megathrust Earthquake: Discrepancy Between the Apparent and Intrinsic Relaxation Time Constants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukahata, Yukitoshi; Matsu'ura, Mitsuhiro

    2017-12-01

    The viscoelastic deformation of an elastic-viscoelastic composite system is significantly different from that of a simple viscoelastic medium. Here, we show that complicated transient deformation due to viscoelastic stress relaxation after a megathrust earthquake can occur even in a very simple situation, in which an elastic surface layer (lithosphere) is underlain by a viscoelastic substratum (asthenosphere) under gravity. Although the overall decay rate of the system is controlled by the intrinsic relaxation time constant of the asthenosphere, the apparent decay time constant at each observation point is significantly different from place to place and generally much longer than the intrinsic relaxation time constant of the asthenosphere. It is also not rare that the sense of displacement rate is reversed during the viscoelastic relaxation. If we do not bear these points in mind, we may draw false conclusions from observed deformation data. Such complicated transient behavior can be explained mathematically from the characteristics of viscoelastic solution: for an elastic-viscoelastic layered half-space, the viscoelastic solution is expressed as superposition of three decaying components with different relaxation time constants that depend on wavelength.

  18. Upper Crust Structure and Earthquake Mechanism Near the Xinfengjiang Reservoir, Guangdong, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, X.; He, L.; Yang, H.; Shen, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The Xinfengjiang Water Reservoir (XWR) in Guangdong, China locates in Yanshanian granitic blocks, with three major faults crossing in NNW, NNE, and NEE directions. The XWR was built in 1958 and immediately after its impoundment, a series of earthquakes have occurred in the vicinity of the reservoir, including the 1962 M6.1 earthquake that occurred 1 km next to the dam. Numerous small earthquakes take place in this region presently, making it one of the most active seismic zones in Guangdong. Due to limited station coverage and small magnitude earthquakes, few data were available, thus previous seismic studies have limited resolution to understand earthquake activities in this region. To investigate present seismicity and associated crust/fault structure, we have collected waveform data of the 14 permanent Xinfengjiang seismic network stations from year 2012 to 2015, with a total of 1507 earthquakes of magnitude greater than zero. In addition, we also collected waveform data of 160 earthquakes recorded at 42 temporary seismic stations that were deployed near the Renzishi fault zone during 2015/01-2015/02. Finally we handpicked 20,666 P arrival times and 18,868 S times. We then performed tomographic inversion using these times for P and S velocity, respectively. The P-wave tomographic results show that the XWR area is generally divided into two regions by the NE-SW faults. At shallow depth (border between fast and slow velocity blocks. Mechanism inversion results of earthquakes greater than magnitude 3 show that these "big" earthquakes are primarily dip-slip type, with strike-slip type dominants. The slip directions are approximately NNE, in accordance with the Renzishi fault and the local stress direction. Our results suggest that the upper crust structure in XWR area are mainly affected by NNE faults, and the seismicity are controlled by both local structure and stress field. S velocity will be compared to further discuss the properties of XWR area.

  19. Limiting the effects of earthquakes on gravitational-wave interferometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlin, Michael; Earle, Paul; Harms, Jan; Biscans, Sebastien; Buchanan, Christopher; Coughlin, Eric; Donovan, Fred; Fee, Jeremy; Gabbard, Hunter; Guy, Michelle; Mukund, Nikhil; Perry, Matthew

    2017-01-01

    Ground-based gravitational wave interferometers such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) are susceptible to ground shaking from high-magnitude teleseismic events, which can interrupt their operation in science mode and significantly reduce their duty cycle. It can take several hours for a detector to stabilize enough to return to its nominal state for scientific observations. The down time can be reduced if advance warning of impending shaking is received and the impact is suppressed in the isolation system with the goal of maintaining stable operation even at the expense of increased instrumental noise. Here, we describe an early warning system for modern gravitational-wave observatories. The system relies on near real-time earthquake alerts provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Preliminary low latency hypocenter and magnitude information is generally available in 5 to 20 min of a significant earthquake depending on its magnitude and location. The alerts are used to estimate arrival times and ground velocities at the gravitational-wave detectors. In general, 90% of the predictions for ground-motion amplitude are within a factor of 5 of measured values. The error in both arrival time and ground-motion prediction introduced by using preliminary, rather than final, hypocenter and magnitude information is minimal. By using a machine learning algorithm, we develop a prediction model that calculates the probability that a given earthquake will prevent a detector from taking data. Our initial results indicate that by using detector control configuration changes, we could prevent interruption of operation from 40 to 100 earthquake events in a 6-month time-period.

  20. Limiting the effects of earthquakes on gravitational-wave interferometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlin, Michael; Earle, Paul; Harms, Jan; Biscans, Sebastien; Buchanan, Christopher; Coughlin, Eric; Donovan, Fred; Fee, Jeremy; Gabbard, Hunter; Guy, Michelle; Mukund, Nikhil; Perry, Matthew

    2017-02-01

    Ground-based gravitational wave interferometers such as the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) are susceptible to ground shaking from high-magnitude teleseismic events, which can interrupt their operation in science mode and significantly reduce their duty cycle. It can take several hours for a detector to stabilize enough to return to its nominal state for scientific observations. The down time can be reduced if advance warning of impending shaking is received and the impact is suppressed in the isolation system with the goal of maintaining stable operation even at the expense of increased instrumental noise. Here, we describe an early warning system for modern gravitational-wave observatories. The system relies on near real-time earthquake alerts provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Preliminary low latency hypocenter and magnitude information is generally available in 5 to 20 min of a significant earthquake depending on its magnitude and location. The alerts are used to estimate arrival times and ground velocities at the gravitational-wave detectors. In general, 90% of the predictions for ground-motion amplitude are within a factor of 5 of measured values. The error in both arrival time and ground-motion prediction introduced by using preliminary, rather than final, hypocenter and magnitude information is minimal. By using a machine learning algorithm, we develop a prediction model that calculates the probability that a given earthquake will prevent a detector from taking data. Our initial results indicate that by using detector control configuration changes, we could prevent interruption of operation from 40 to 100 earthquake events in a 6-month time-period.

  1. Preliminary Results of the 2013 - 2014 Sabancaya, Peru Earthquakes from COSMO-Skymed Satellite Constellation InSAR Time-Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milillo, P.; Lundgren, P.; Jolivet, R.; Simons, M.

    2014-12-01

    We examine an earthquake series in southern Peru that features a complex interaction of main- and after-shocks located in an active volcanic zone. The earthquakes started with the 17 July 2013 Mw 5.9 and 24 July 2013 Mw 4.0 earthquakes north-west 20 km NW of active Sabancaya volcano in the Andean Central volcanic Zone of Peru. During this time interval Sabancaya volcano experienced a strong seismic swarm, fumarole activity and earthquakes possibly related to fracturing of rock and fluid movements.We analyze satellite InSAR data from the Italian Space Agency (ASI) COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) constellation and airborne InSAR data from the NASA UAVSAR. CSK provides a dense InSAR time series that track deformation from 2013 through 2014. Thanks to the short repeat interval of the CSK constellation we are able to discriminate between different earthquakes, aftershocks and post seismic processes leading to a better constraint of the sources. The initial coseismic interferograms from CSK provide a stunningly detailed image of the fault deformation, due in part to the high resolution, short wavelength (3.1 cm) of CSK, and the high coherence, and high elevation of the location. For such a relatively small earthquake there is significant shallow fault complexity and surface breaks evident. We found that post-seismic deformation starts immediately following the 17 July main event and is still ongoing. The post seismic deformation measured by the CSK InSAR time series shows a logarithmic time dependency for the southern part of the fault involved in the July 17 earthquake. Using a non-linear least squares approach we found a characteristic time constant of ~0.5 years. We found complex co-seismic and persistent post seismic deformation northeast of Sabancaya volcano possibly related to the complex fault system. To model the coseismic fault geometry and fault slip distribution we use a Bayesian method to solve for the basic fault geometry. This model forms the basis for a detailed

  2. Earthquake Risk Reduction to Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulfikar, Can; Kariptas, Cagatay; Biyikoglu, Hikmet; Ozarpa, Cevat

    2017-04-01

    expected level of shaking when an earthquake starts to occur. However, in Istanbul case for a potential Marmara Sea Earthquake, the time is very limited even to estimate the level of shaking. The robust threshold based EEW system is only algorithm for such a near source event to activate automatic shut-off mechanism in the critical infrastructures before the damaging waves arrive. This safety measure even with a few seconds of early warning time will help to mitigate potential damages and secondary hazards.

  3. Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Throughput

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yao

    2017-01-01

    Time-based flow management provides arrival aircraft schedules based on arrival airport conditions, airport capacity, required spacing, and weather conditions. In order to meet a scheduled time at which arrival aircraft can cross an airport arrival meter fix prior to entering the airport terminal airspace, air traffic controllers make regulations on air traffic. Severe weather may create an airport arrival bottleneck if one or more of airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by the weather and the arrival demand has not been reduced accordingly. Under these conditions, aircraft are frequently being put in holding patterns until they can be rerouted. A model that predicts the weather impacted meter fix throughput may help air traffic controllers direct arrival flows into the airport more efficiently, minimizing arrival meter fix congestion. This paper presents an analysis of air traffic flows across arrival meter fixes at the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). Several scenarios of weather impacted EWR arrival fix flows are described. Furthermore, multiple linear regression and regression tree ensemble learning approaches for translating multiple sector Weather Impacted Traffic Indexes (WITI) to EWR arrival meter fix throughputs are examined. These weather translation models are developed and validated using the EWR arrival flight and weather data for the period of April-September in 2014. This study also compares the performance of the regression tree ensemble with traditional multiple linear regression models for estimating the weather impacted throughputs at each of the EWR arrival meter fixes. For all meter fixes investigated, the results from the regression tree ensemble weather translation models show a stronger correlation between model outputs and observed meter fix throughputs than that produced from multiple linear regression method.

  4. Space- and Time-Dependent Probabilities for Earthquake Fault Systems from Numerical Simulations: Feasibility Study and First Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Aalsburg, Jordan; Rundle, John B.; Grant, Lisa B.; Rundle, Paul B.; Yakovlev, Gleb; Turcotte, Donald L.; Donnellan, Andrea; Tiampo, Kristy F.; Fernandez, Jose

    2010-08-01

    In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed "model steering". Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California.

  5. Application of real‐time GPS to earthquake early warning in subduction and strike‐slip environments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Colombelli, Simona; Allen, Richard M; Zollo, Aldo

    2013-01-01

    We explore the application of GPS data to earthquake early warning and investigate whether the coseismic ground deformation can be used to provide fast and reliable magnitude estimations and ground shaking predictions...

  6. Performance of a low-cost earthquake early warning system (P-alert) during the 2016 ML 6.4 Meinong (Taiwan) earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y. M.

    2016-12-01

    On February 5, 2016, a moderate earthquake occurred in Southwestern Taiwan with ML 6.4 and a focal depth of 16.7 km. This earthquake caused damage to a few buildings and 117 casualties. A low-cost earthquake early warning (EEW) system (P-alert) is in operation for the purpose of EEW and providing near real-time shake maps. During this event, a detailed shaking map was generated by the P-alert system within two minutes after the earthquake occurrence, and high shaking regions strongly correlated with the locations in which the damage and casualties occurred. In the field, individual P-alert devices also serve as onsite EEW systems using P-wave information. The individual P-alert provided a 4 to 8 s lead time before the arrival of violent shaking in damaged regions. For regional EEW, both the Central Weather Bureau (CWB, official agency) and the P-alert system responded very well. Currently, regional warnings in Taiwan are only provided to cities at epicentral distances of 50 km or more by the CWB. For cities within a 50 km epicentral distance, the P-alert system could be useful for providing onsite EEW. The performance of the P-alert network during this earthquake proves the efficiency of this real-time, low-cost network in terms of early warning (regional and onsite), near real-time shake maps, rapid reports and strong motion data for research purposes.

  7. Comprehensive treatment for gas gangrene of the limbs in earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yue; Lu, Bo; Hao, Peng; Yan, Meng-ning; Dai, Ke-rong

    2013-10-01

    Mortality rates for patients with gas gangrene from trauma or surgery are as high as 25%, but they increase to 50%-80% for patients injured in natural hazards. Early diagnosis and treatment are essential for these patients. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical characteristics and therapeutic results of 19 patients with gas gangrene of the limbs, who were injured in the May 2008 earthquake in the Wenchuan district of China's Sichuan province and treated in our hospital, to seek how to best diagnose and treat earthquake-induced gas gangrene. Of 226 patients with limbs open injuries sustained during the earthquake, 53 patients underwent smear analysis of wound exudates and gas gangrene was diagnosed in 19 patients. The average elapsed time from injury to arrival at the hospital was 72 hours, from injury to definitive diagnosis was 4.3 days, and from diagnosis to conversion of negative findings on wound smear analysis to positive findings was 12.7 days. Anaerobic cultures were also obtained before wound closure. The average elapsed time from completion of surgery to recovery of normal vital signs was 6.3 days. Of the 19 patients, 16 were treated with open amputation, two with closed amputation, and 1 with successful limb salvage; 18 patients were successfully treated and one died. In earthquakes, rapid, accurate screening and isolation are essential to successful treatment of gas gangrene and helpful in preventing nosocomial diffusion. Early and thorough debridement, open amputation, and active supportive treatment can produce satisfactory therapeutic results.

  8. Characteristics of flux-time profiles, temporal evolution, and spatial distribution of radiation-belt electron precipitation bursts in the upper ionosphere before great and giant earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Pulinets

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available

    The analysis of energetic electron observations made by the DEMETER satellite reveals that radiation belt electron precipitation (RBEP bursts are observed in general several (~1-6 days before a large (M > 6.5 earthquake (EQ in the presence of broad band (~1-20 kHz VLF waves. The EBs show in general a relative peak-to-background flux increase usually < 100, they have a time duration of ~0.5 – 3 min, and their energy spectrum reach up to energies <~500 keV. The RBEP activity is observed as one, two or three EBs throughout a semi-orbit, depended on the magnetic field structure above the EQ epicenter. A statistical analysis has been made for earthquakes in Japan, which reveals a standard temporal variation of the number of EBs, which begins with an incremental rate several days before major earthquakes, and after a maximum, decreases so that the electron precipitation ceases above the epicenter. Some earthquake induced EBs were observed not only in the nightside ionosphere, but also in the dayside ionosphere.

     

  9. Time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios: Preliminary report on the M6.2 Central Italy earthquake, 24th August 2016

    CERN Document Server

    Peresan, Antonella; Romashkova, Leontina; Magrin, Andrea; Soloviev, Alexander; Panza, Giuliano F

    2016-01-01

    A scenario-based Neo-Deterministic approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) is available nowadays, which permits considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of attenuation relations and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking, including reliable estimates of ground displacement, readily applicable to complete engineering analysis. Based on the neo-deterministic approach, an operational integrated procedure for seismic hazard assessment has been developed that allows for the definition of time dependent scenarios of ground shaking, through the routine updating of earthquake predictions, performed by means of the algorithms CN and M8S. The integrated NDSHA procedure for seismic input definition, which is currently applied to the Italian territory, combines different pattern recognition techniques, designed for the space-time identification of strong earthquakes, with al...

  10. Reservoir-induced seismicity associated with the Pertusillo lake (Southern Italy): poroelastic and time-dependent earthquake nucleation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalli, Flaminia; Hainzl, Sebastian; Urpi, Luca; Improta, Luigi; Dahm, Torsten

    2016-04-01

    The Pertusillo artificial lake in Southern Italy is one of the known water reservoirs showing protracted seismicity for several years after the initial filling in 1965. For a period of about twelve years in between 2001 and 2013 we have records of seismicity and water level changes. In this period more than 1800 events with local magnitude ranging between -0.2 and 3.2 are observed; in the same period the water column fluctuated in average of 15 m per year. We model stress and time-dependent pore-pressure due to water level variations associated with the Pertusillo lake. The solutions are given for a homogeneous, porous-elastic half-space and considering the decoupled approximation when resolving the governing partial differential equations (i.e. elastic stresses influence the pore pressure but not vice versa). Stress and pore-pressure are used to compute seismicity rate changes through the rate-and-state nucleation model. Our approach is a first-order approximation of the problem of reservoir-induced earthquakes because we are not considering information of the complex crustal structure in our methodology. However, it allows for understanding the relative importance of the driving forces and quantifying the primary consistency between modelled and observed seismicity. All the discrepancies between forecasted and observed seismicity might reveal the need of considering different settings of the surrounding area, as for example the existence of high-permeable fracture zones and layers with different elastic and hydraulic parameters.

  11. On a Batch Arrival Queuing System Equipped with a Stand-by Server during Vacation Periods or the Repairs Times of the Main Server

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rehab F. Khalaf

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We study a queuing system which is equipped with a stand-by server in addition to the main server. The stand-by server provides service to customers only during the period of absence of the main server when either the main server is on a vacation or it is in the state of repairs due to a sudden failure from time to time. The service times, vacation times, and repair times are assumed to follow general arbitrary distributions while the stand-by service times follow exponential distribution. Supplementary variables technique has been used to obtain steady state results in explicit and closed form in terms of the probability generating functions for the number of customers in the queue, the average number of customers, and the average waiting time in the queue while the MathCad software has been used to illustrate the numerical results in this work.

  12. USGS Tweet Earthquake Dispatch (@USGSted): Using Twitter for Earthquake Detection and Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, S. B.; Bouchard, B.; Bowden, D. C.; Guy, M.; Earle, P.

    2012-12-01

    desktop computer at the time of the detections. The continuously updating map displays geolocated tweets arriving after the detection and plots epicenters of recent earthquakes. When available, seismograms from nearby stations are displayed as an additional form of verification. A time series of tweets-per-minute is also shown to illustrate the volume of tweets being generated for the detected event. Future additions are being investigated to provide a more in-depth characterization of the seismic events based on an analysis of tweet text and content from other social media sources.

  13. Real-Time In-Situ Measurements for Earthquake Early Warning and Space-Borne Deformation Measurement Mission Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kedar, S.; Bock, Y.; Webb, F.; Clayton, R. W.; Owen, S. E.; Moore, A. W.; Yu, E.; Dong, D.; Fang, P.; Jamason, P.; Squibb, M. B.; Crowell, B. W.

    2010-12-01

    In situ geodetic networks for observing crustal motion have proliferated over the last two decades and are now recognized as indispensable tools in geophysical research, along side more traditional seismic networks. The 2007 National Research Council’s Decadal Survey recognizes that space-borne and in situ observations, such as Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and ground-based continuous GPS (CGPS) are complementary in forecasting, in assessing, and in mitigating natural hazards. However, the information content and timeliness of in situ geodetic observations have not been fully exploited, particularly at higher frequencies than traditional daily CGPS position time series. Nor have scientists taken full advantage of the complementary natures of geodetic and seismic data, as well as those of space-based and in situ observations. To address these deficits we are developing real-time CGPS data products for earthquake early warning and for space-borne deformation measurement mission support. Our primary mission objective is in situ verification and validation for DESDynI, but our work is also applicable to other international missions (Sentinel 1a/1b, SAOCOM, ALOS 2). Our project is developing new capabilities to continuously observe and mitigate earthquake-related hazards (direct seismic damage, tsunamis, landslides, volcanoes) in near real-time with high spatial-temporal resolution, to improve the planning and accuracy of space-borne observations. We also are using GPS estimates of tropospheric zenith delay combined with water vapor data from weather models to generate tropospheric calibration maps for mitigating the largest source of error, atmospheric artifacts, in InSAR interferograms. These functions will be fully integrated into a Geophysical Resource Web Services and interactive GPS Explorer data portal environment being developed as part of an ongoing MEaSUREs project and NASA’s contribution to the EarthScope project. GPS Explorer

  14. Analytical study on abnormal change in time-variable gravity at Yichang seismostation before the M5.1 Badong earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Jin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available An M5.1 earthquake occurred in Badong County, only 66 km from the Three Gorges Dam, on December 16, 2013. The continuous gravity observation data obtained at Yichang seismostation nearest to the epicenter (96 km were analyzed, and it was found that the continuous gravity observation data obtained in this rainy season did not exhibit a characteristic of seasonal change in gravity identical to that in the past years, and thereafter the M5.1 Badong earthquake occurred. Numerical simulation revealed that the water storage and discharge of the Three Gorges reservoir generated seasonal change in gravity, and the changes in atmospheric pressure and gravity load were not the main sources of the seasonal change of continuous gravity observation data whether in respect of magnitude or phase and did not have obvious breaking change on annual variation before the earthquake. Through analysis of the seasonal change data observed on the same site including cavern temperature, rainfall data and global terrestrial water model (CPC simulated water load, it was thought that, in the observation room with cavern temperature change of only −0.11 °C/a at Yichang seismostation, the seasonal change of continuous gravity observation result mainly originated from the seasonal change in rainfall. In the case that the changes in rainfall and its water load did not have evident breaking change on annual variation law before the earthquake, if the M5.1 Badong earthquake was the cause of the breaking change on annual variation law in Yichang this time, then it was believed through analysis of crust expansion ratio that similar anomaly should occur at a crust expansion and compression intersection, no more than 100 km away from the epicenter.

  15. Earthquake Drill using the Earthquake Early Warning System at an Elementary School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, Satoko; Yazaki, Yoshiaki; Koketsu, Kazuki

    2010-05-01

    economic repercussion. We provide the school kids with the "World Seismicity Map" to let them realize that earthquake disasters take place unequally. Then we let the kids jump in front of the seismometer with projecting the real-time data to the wall. Grouped kids contest the largest amplitude by carefully considering how to jump high but nail the landing with their teammates. Their jumps are printed out via portable printer and compared with the real earthquake which occurred even 600km away but still huge when printed out in the same scale. Actually, a magnitude 7 earthquake recorded 600km away needs an A0 paper when scaled with a jump of 10 kids printed in an A4 paper. They've got to understand what to do not to be killed with the great big energy. We also offer earthquake drills using the Earthquake Early Warning System (EEW System). An EEW System is officially introduced in 2007 by JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) to issue prompt alerts to provide several to several ten seconds before S-wave arrives. When hearing the alarm, school kids think fast to find a place to protect themselves. It is not always when they are in their classrooms but in the chemical lab, music room which does not have any desks to protect them, or in the PE class. Then in the science class, we demonstrate how the EEW System works. A 8m long wave propagation device made with spindles connected with springs is used to visualize the P- and S-waves. In the presentation, we would like to show the paper materials and sufficient movies.

  16. Space-time model for migration of weak earthquakes along the northern boundary of the Amurian microplate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trofimenko, S. V.; Bykov, V. G.; Merkulova, T. V.

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, we aimed to investigate the statistical distributions of shallow earthquakes with 2 ≤ M ≤ 4, located in 13 rectangular areas (clusters) bounded by 120°E and 144°E along the northern boundary of the Amurian microplate. As a result of our study, the displacement of seismicity maxima has been determined and three recurrent spatial cycles have been observed. The clusters with similar distribution of earthquakes are suggested to alternate being equally spaced at 7.26° (360-420 km). A comparison of investigation results on the structure of seismicity in various segments of the Amurian microplate reveals the identity between the alternation pattern observed for meridional zones of large earthquakes and a distinguished spatial period. The displacement vector for seismicity in the annual cycles is determined, and the correspondence between its E-W direction and the displacement of the fronts of large earthquakes is established. The elaborated model of seismic and deformation processes is considered, in which subsequent activation of clusters of weak earthquakes (2 ≤ M ≤ 4), tending to extend from the Japanese-Sakhalin island arc to the eastern closure of the Baikal rift zone, is initiated by the displacement of the strain wave front.

  17. Forecasting tourist arrivals in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Saayman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of this paper is to model and forecast tourism to South Africa from the country's main intercontinental tourism markets. These include Great Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States of America and France. Problem investigated: Tourism to South Africa has grown substantially since the first democratic elections in 1994. It is currently the third largest industry in the country and a vital source of foreign exchange earnings. Tourist arrivals continue to grow annually, and have shown some resilience to a number of emerging market crises, including the terrorist attacks in the USA. Business success, marketing decisions, government's investment policy as well as macroeconomic policy are influenced by the accuracy of tourism forecasts, since the tourism product comprises a number of services that cannot be accumulated. Accurate forecasts of tourism demand are paramount to ensure the availability of such services when demanded. In addition, the seasonal nature of tourism leads to a pattern of excess capacity followed by shortage in capacity. Method: Since univariate time series modelling has proved to be a very successful method for forecasting tourist arrivals, it is also the method employed in this paper. The naïve model is tested against a standard ARIMA model, as well as the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and seasonal-non-seasonal ARIMA models. Forecasting accuracy is assessed using the mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error and Theill's U of the various models. Monthly tourist arrivals from 1994 to 2006 are used in the analysis, and arrivals are forecasted for 2007. Findings: The results show that seasonal ARIMA models deliver the most accurate predictions of arrivals over three time horizons, namely three months, six months and 12 months. Value: This paper is the first tourist arrivals forecast using South African data for the country as a whole, and therefore it forms an interesting case study

  18. Citizen earthquake alert using near real time PGA estimation from a local array combining a variety of accelerometric instruments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melis, Nikolaos S.; Konstantinou, Konstantinos; Kalogeras, Ioannis; Sokos, Efthimios; Tselentis, G.-Akis

    2017-04-01

    It is of a great importance to assess rapidly the intensity of a felt event in a highly populated environment. Rapid and reliable information plays a key role to decision making responses, by performing correctly the first steps after a felt ground shaking. Thus, it is important to accurately respond to urgent societal demand using reliable information. A strong motion array is under deployment and trial operation in the area of Patras, Greece. It combines: (a) standard accelerometric stations operated by the National Observatory of Athens, Institute of Geodynamics (NOA), (b) QCN-type USB MEMS acceleration sensors deployed in schools and (c) P-alert MEMS acceleration devices deployed in public sector buildings as well as in private dwellings. The array intends to cover the whole city of Patras and the populated suburbs. All instruments are operating in near real time and they are linked to a combined Earthworm - SeisComP3 server at NOA, Athens. Rapid intensity estimation can be also performed by the P-alert accelerometers locally, but the performance of a near real time intensity estimation system is under operation at NOA. The procedure is based on observing the maximum PGA value at each instrument and empirically estimate the corresponding intensity. The values are also fed to a SeisComP3 based ShakeMap procedure that is served at NOA and uses the scwfparam module of SeisComP3. Earthquake activity has been recorded so far from the western Corinth Gulf, the Ionian Islands and Achaia-Elia area, western Peloponnesus. The first phase involves correlation tests of collocated instruments and assessment of their performance to low intensity as well as to strongly felt events in the Patras city area. Steps of expanding the array are also under consideration, in order to cover the wider area of northwestern Peloponnesus and Ionian islands.

  19. Time reverse imaging for far-field tsunami forecasting: 2011 Tohoku earthquake case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossen, M. Jakir; Cummins, Phil R.; Dettmer, Jan; Baba, Toshitaka

    2015-11-01

    This paper describes a new method for forecasting far-field tsunamis by combining aspects of least squares tsunami source inversion (LSQ) with time reverse imaging (TRI). This method has the same source representation as LSQ but uses TRI to estimate initial sea surface displacement. We apply this method to the 2011 Japan tsunami, and the results show that the method produces tsunami waveforms of excellent agreement with observed waveforms at both near- and far-field stations not used in the source estimation. The spatial distribution of cumulative sea surface displacement agrees well with other models obtained in more sophisticated inversions, but resolve source kinematics are not well resolved. The method has potential for application in tsunami warning systems, as it is computationally efficient and can be used to estimate the initial source model by applying precomputed Green's functions in order to provide more accurate and realistic tsunami predictions.

  20. Earthquake Early Warning with Seismogeodesy: Detection, Location, and Magnitude Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning is critical to reducing injuries and casualties in case of a large magnitude earthquake. The system must rely on near-source data to minimize the time between event onset and issuance of a warning. Early warning systems typically use seismic instruments (seismometers and accelerometers), but these instruments experience difficulty maintaining reliable data in the near-source region and undergo magnitude saturation for large events. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instruments capture the long period motions and have been shown to produce robust estimates of the true size of the earthquake source. However, GNSS is often overlooked in this context in part because it is not precise enough to record the first seismic wave arrivals (P-wave detection), an important consideration for issuing an early warning. GNSS instruments are becoming integrated into early warning, but are not yet fully exploited. Our approach involves the combination of direct measurements from collocated GNSS and accelerometer stations to estimate broadband coseismic displacement and velocity waveforms [Bock et al., 2011], a method known as seismogeodesy. We present the prototype seismogeodetic early warning system developed at Scripps and demonstrate that the seismogeodetic dataset can be used for P-wave detection, hypocenter location, and shaking onset determination. We discuss uncertainties in each of these estimates and include discussion of the sensitivity of our estimates as a function of the azimuthal distribution of monitoring stations. The seismogeodetic combination has previously been shown to be immune to magnitude saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. Rapid magnitude estimation is an important product in earthquake early warning, and is the critical metric in current tsunami hazard warnings. Using the seismogeodetic approach, we refine earthquake magnitude scaling using P-wave amplitudes (Pd) and peak ground displacements (PGD) for a

  1. A new statistical time-dependent model of earthquake occurrence: failure processes driven by a self-correcting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotondi, Renata; Varini, Elisa

    2016-04-01

    The long-term recurrence of strong earthquakes is often modelled by the stationary Poisson process for the sake of simplicity, although renewal and self-correcting point processes (with non-decreasing hazard functions) are more appropriate. Short-term models mainly fit earthquake clusters due to the tendency of an earthquake to trigger other earthquakes; in this case, self-exciting point processes with non-increasing hazard are especially suitable. In order to provide a unified framework for analyzing earthquake catalogs, Schoenberg and Bolt proposed the SELC (Short-term Exciting Long-term Correcting) model (BSSA, 2000) and Varini employed a state-space model for estimating the different phases of a seismic cycle (PhD Thesis, 2005). Both attempts are combinations of long- and short-term models, but results are not completely satisfactory, due to the different scales at which these models appear to operate. In this study, we split a seismic sequence in two groups: the leader events, whose magnitude exceeds a threshold magnitude, and the remaining ones considered as subordinate events. The leader events are assumed to follow a well-known self-correcting point process named stress release model (Vere-Jones, J. Phys. Earth, 1978; Bebbington & Harte, GJI, 2003, Varini & Rotondi, Env. Ecol. Stat., 2015). In the interval between two subsequent leader events, subordinate events are expected to cluster at the beginning (aftershocks) and at the end (foreshocks) of that interval; hence, they are modeled by a failure processes that allows bathtub-shaped hazard function. In particular, we have examined the generalized Weibull distributions, a large family that contains distributions with different bathtub-shaped hazard as well as the standard Weibull distribution (Lai, Springer, 2014). The model is fitted to a dataset of Italian historical earthquakes and the results of Bayesian inference are shown.

  2. A statistical study of the performance of the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 numerical model in predicting solar shock arrival times at Earth during different phases of solar cycle 23

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. P. McKenna-Lawlor

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The performance of the Hakamada Akasofu-Fry, version 2 (HAFv.2 numerical model, which provides predictions of solar shock arrival times at Earth, was subjected to a statistical study to investigate those solar/interplanetary circumstances under which the model performed well/poorly during key phases (rise/maximum/decay of solar cycle 23. In addition to analyzing elements of the overall data set (584 selected events associated with particular cycle phases, subsets were formed such that those events making up a particular sub-set showed common characteristics. The statistical significance of the results obtained using the various sets/subsets was generally very low and these results were not significant as compared with the hit by chance rate (50%. This implies a low level of confidence in the predictions of the model with no compelling result encouraging its use. However, the data suggested that the success rates of HAFv.2 were higher when the background solar wind speed at the time of shock initiation was relatively fast. Thus, in scenarios where the background solar wind speed is elevated and the calculated success rate significantly exceeds the rate by chance, the forecasts could provide potential value to the customer. With the composite statistics available for solar cycle 23, the calculated success rate at high solar wind speed, although clearly above 50%, was indicative rather than conclusive. The RMS error estimated for shock arrival times for every cycle phase and for the composite sample was in each case significantly better than would be expected for a random data set. Also, the parameter "Probability of Detection, yes" (PODy which presents the Proportion of Yes observations that were correctly forecast (i.e. the ratio between the shocks correctly predicted and all the shocks observed, yielded values for the rise/maximum/decay phases of the cycle and using the composite sample of 0.85, 0.64, 0.79 and 0.77, respectively. The statistical

  3. Analog earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hofmann, R.B. [Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses, San Antonio, TX (United States)

    1995-09-01

    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository.

  4. Rapid Earthquake Magnitude Estimation for Early Warning Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Dara; Bock, Yehuda; Melgar, Diego

    2017-04-01

    displacement time series compared to GNSS alone. This not only means that ground motion can be detected at farther stations, but also that smaller seismic arrivals (i.e. P-waves) become visible in the displacement time series. P-wave amplitude (Pd) has been examined as an early indicator of earthquake magnitude. Relations between Pd and magnitude using seismic-only instrumentation appear to suffer from saturation, while the combination of GNSS and seismic data has been demonstrated to eliminate saturation [Meier et al., 2016, Crowell et al., 2013]. We create seismogeodetic displacements by combining the GNSS dataset with Japanese KiK-net and K-net accelerometer data to explore the potential of seismogeodesy for magnitude scaling with several seconds of data using P-wave amplitude.

  5. Mid-latitude Electromagnetic and Ionospheric Phenomena Accompanying and Preceding of Abruzzo Earthquakes on April 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilov, B. G.

    2009-12-01

    The results of the analysis of variations of the geomagnetic field, the ground vertical atmospheric electric current and the total electron content of the ionosphere (TEC) during Italy earthquakes on April 2009 are presented. The data were obtained from the MIKHNEVO geophysical observatory (55.0 N; 37.7 E) of the Institute of Geospheres Dynamics of Russian Academy of Sciences. Observatory is located 80 km to the south from Moscow and in a distance of 2250 km from Abruzzo. The analysis showed that the earthquakes of 6 April (1:32:39 UTC, M6.3) and of 7 April (17:47:37 UTC, M5.3) were accompanied by perturbations of the ground geophysical fields and of the ionosphere in mid-latitude Russia. On April, 6 the perturbation of the geomagnetic field was registered 360 sec before the moment of the earthquake, and about 600 sec before the P-wave arrival to the Obninsk station (75 km from Mikhnevo). At that time the index of the geomagnetic activity (AE-index) was very small, so global geomagnetic perturbations were absent. In about 600 sec after the earthquake the ionosphere perturbation was observed. On April, 7 the geomagnetic field variations character changed approximately 250 seconds before the earthquake. The increase of a signal frequency was observed. The perturbation of ground vertical atmospheric electric current coincides with the moment of the earthquake, but advances the arrival of the P-wave. The ionosphere perturbations (decrease of TEC value) were observed approximately on the same time as atmospheric current alteration. The next, weaker aftershocks were not accompanied by appreciable perturbations of the mid-latitude geophysical fields. A - Seismogram (Obninsk); B- Horizontal component magnetic field Bx (Mikhnevo); C - Bx Wavelet

  6. Strategic Arrivals Recommendation Tool Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — During the conduct of a NASA Research Announcement (NRA) in 2012 and 2013, the Mosaic ATM team first developed the Strategic Arrivals Recommendation Tool concept, or...

  7. Fluid pressure arrival time tomography: Estimation and assessment in the presence of inequality constraints, with an application to a producing gas field at Krechba, Algeria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rucci, A.; Vasco, D.W.; Novali, F.

    2010-04-01

    Deformation in the overburden proves useful in deducing spatial and temporal changes in the volume of a producing reservoir. Based upon these changes we estimate diffusive travel times associated with the transient flow due to production, and then, as the solution of a linear inverse problem, the effective permeability of the reservoir. An advantage an approach based upon travel times, as opposed to one based upon the amplitude of surface deformation, is that it is much less sensitive to the exact geomechanical properties of the reservoir and overburden. Inequalities constrain the inversion, under the assumption that the fluid production only results in pore volume decreases within the reservoir. We apply the formulation to satellite-based estimates of deformation in the material overlying a thin gas production zone at the Krechba field in Algeria. The peak displacement after three years of gas production is approximately 0.5 cm, overlying the eastern margin of the anticlinal structure defining the gas field. Using data from 15 irregularly-spaced images of range change, we calculate the diffusive travel times associated with the startup of a gas production well. The inequality constraints are incorporated into the estimates of model parameter resolution and covariance, improving the resolution by roughly 30 to 40%.

  8. Sequence of deep-focus earthquakes beneath the Bonin Islands identified by the NIED nationwide dense seismic networks Hi-net and F-net

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takemura, Shunsuke; Saito, Tatsuhiko; Shiomi, Katsuhiko

    2017-03-01

    An M 6.8 ( Mw 6.5) deep-focus earthquake occurred beneath the Bonin Islands at 21:18 (JST) on June 23, 2015. Observed high-frequency (>1 Hz) seismograms across Japan, which contain several sets of P- and S-wave arrivals for the 10 min after the origin time, indicate that moderate-to-large earthquakes occurred sequentially around Japan. Snapshots of the seismic energy propagation illustrate that after one deep-focus earthquake occurred beneath the Sea of Japan, two deep-focus earthquakes occurred sequentially after the first ( Mw 6.5) event beneath the Bonin Islands in the next 4 min. The United States Geological Survey catalog includes three Bonin deep-focus earthquakes with similar hypocenter locations, but their estimated magnitudes are inconsistent with seismograms from across Japan. The maximum-amplitude patterns of the latter two earthquakes were similar to that of the first Bonin earthquake, which indicates similar locations and mechanisms. Furthermore, based on the ratios of the S-wave amplitudes to that of the first event, the magnitudes of the latter events are estimated as M 6.5 ± 0.02 and M 5.8 ± 0.02, respectively. Three magnitude-6-class earthquakes occurred sequentially within 4 min in the Pacific slab at 480 km depth, where complex heterogeneities exist within the slab.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  9. Factors associated with hospital arrival time after the onset of stroke symptoms: A cross-sectional study at two teaching hospitals in Harare, Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seremwe, Farayi; Kaseke, Farayi; Chikwanha, Theodora M; Chikwasha, Vasco

    2017-06-01

    Late presentation to hospital after onset of stroke affects management and outcomes of the patients. This study aimed to determine the factors associated with time taken to present to hospital after the onset of acute stroke symptoms. A descriptive cross sectional study was conducted at two teaching hospitals in Zimbabwe. Participants included patients admitted with stroke and their relatives. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on history of stroke occurrence and time taken to present to hospital. Data was analysed for means, frequencies, percentages and Odds ratios. Less than half (33%) of the participants were able to recognize symptoms of stroke. Not having money to pay for hospital bills was a predictor of late hospital presentation (OR =6.64; 95% CI, (2.05-21.53); p=0.002). The other factors, though not statistically significant included not perceiving stroke as a serious illness (OR = 2.43; 95% CI (0.78-5.51); p=0.083) and unavailability of transport (OR=2.33; 95% CI (0.71-7.56); p=0.161). Predictors for early presentation included receiving knowledge about stroke from the community (OR=0.46; 95% CI (0.15-1.39); p=0.170); seeking help at the hospital (OR=0.50; 95% CI (0.18-1.37); p=0.177) and having a stroke while at the workplace (OR =0.46; 95% CI (0.08-2.72); p=0.389). Regarding stroke as an emergency that does not require prerequisite payment for services at hospitals and improved community awareness on stroke may improve time taken to present to hospital after the onset of stroke symptoms.

  10. Size dependent rupture growth at the scale of real earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombelli, Simona; Festa, Gaetano; Zollo, Aldo

    2017-04-01

    When an earthquake starts, the rupture process may evolve in a variety of ways, resulting in the occurrence of different magnitude earthquakes, with variable areal extent and slip, and this may produce an unpredictable damage distribution around the fault zone. The cause of the observed diversity of the rupture process evolution is unknown. There are studies supporting the idea that all earthquakes arise in the same way, while the mechanical conditions of the fault zone may determine the propagation and generation of small or large earthquakes. Other studies show that small and large earthquakes are different from the initial stage of the rupture beginning. Among them, Colombelli et al. (2014) observed that the initial slope of the P-wave peak displacement could be a discriminant for the final earthquake size, so that small and large ruptures show a different behavior in their initial stage. In this work we perform a detailed analysis of the time evolution of the P-wave peak amplitude for a set of few, co-located events, during the 2008, Iwate-Miyagi (Japan) earthquake sequence. The events have magnitude between 3.2 and 7.2 and their epicentral coordinates vary in a narrow range, with a maximum distance among the epicenters of about 15 km. After applying a refined technique for data processing, we measured the initial Peak Displacement (Pd) as the absolute value of the vertical component of displacement records, starting from the P-wave arrival time and progressively expanding the time window. For each event, we corrected the observed Pd values at different stations for the distance effect and computed the average logarithm of Pd as a function of time. The overall shape of the Pd curves (in log-lin scale) is consistent with what has been previously observed for a larger dataset by Colombelli et al. (2014). The initial amplitude begins with small values and then increases with time, until a plateau level is reached. However, we observed essential differences in the

  11. Some performance measures for vacation models with a batch Markovian arrival process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadrac K. Matendo

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a single server infinite capacity queueing system, where the arrival process is a batch Markovian arrival process (BMAP. Particular BMAPs are the batch Poisson arrival process, the Markovian arrival process (MAP, many batch arrival processes with correlated interarrival times and batch sizes, and superpositions of these processes. We note that the MAP includes phase-type (PH renewal processes and non-renewal processes such as the Markov modulated Poisson process (MMPP.

  12. Dead on Arrival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGauley, John

    1990-01-01

    Suggestions on how to avoid boring the media--and embarrassing the institution--with "non-news" story ideas are provided. Because reporters at the national level are bombarded every day, they hardly have time to listen to good ideas, much less mundane matters. (MLW)

  13. The Nankai Trough earthquake tsunamis in Korea: numerical studies of the 1707 Hoei earthquake and physics-based scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, SatByul; Saito, Tatsuhiko; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Kang, Tae-Seob

    2016-04-01

    Historical documents in Korea and China report abnormal waves in the sea and rivers close to the date of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which occurred in the Nankai Trough, off southwestern Japan. This indicates that the tsunami caused by the Hoei earthquake might have reached Korea and China, which suggests a potential hazard in Korea from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. We conducted tsunami simulations to study the details of tsunamis in Korea caused by large earthquakes. Our results showed that the Hoei earthquake (Mw 8.8) tsunami reached the Korean Peninsula about 200 min after the earthquake occurred. The maximum tsunami height was ~0.5 m along the Korean coast. The model of the Hoei earthquake predicted a long-lasting tsunami whose highest peak arrived 600 min later after the first arrival near the coastline of Jeju Island. In addition, we conducted tsunami simulations using physics-based scenarios of anticipated earthquakes in the Nankai subduction zone. The maximum tsunami height in the scenarios (Mw 8.5-8.6) was ~0.4 m along the Korean coast. As a simple evaluation of larger possible tsunamis, we increased the amount of stress released by the earthquake by a factor of two and three, resulting in scenarios for Mw 8.8 and 8.9 earthquakes, respectively. The tsunami height increased by 0.1-0.4 m compared to that estimated by the Hoei earthquake.

  14. An Architecture for On-Line Measurement of the Tip Clearance and Time of Arrival of a Bladed Disk of an Aircraft Engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Miguel Gil-García

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Safety and performance of the turbo-engine in an aircraft is directly affected by the health of its blades. In recent years, several improvements to the sensors have taken place to monitor the blades in a non-intrusive way. The parameters that are usually measured are the distance between the blade tip and the casing, and the passing time at a given point. Simultaneously, several techniques have been developed that allow for the inference—from those parameters and under certain conditions—of the amplitude and frequency of the blade vibration. These measurements are carried out on engines set on a rig, before being installed in an airplane. In order to incorporate these methods during the regular operation of the engine, signal processing that allows for the monitoring of those parameters at all times should be developed. This article introduces an architecture, based on a trifurcated optic sensor and a hardware processor, that fulfills this need. The proposed architecture is scalable and allows several sensors to be simultaneously monitored at different points around a bladed disk. Furthermore, the results obtained by the electronic system will be compared with the results obtained by the validation of the optic sensor.

  15. PRECURSORS OF EARTHQUAKES: VLF SIGNALSIONOSPHERE IONOSPHERE RELATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa ULAS

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available lot of people have died because of earthquakes every year. Therefore It is crucial to predict the time of the earthquakes reasonable time before it had happed. This paper presents recent information published in the literature about precursors of earthquakes. The relationships between earthquakes and ionosphere are targeted to guide new researches in order to study further to find novel prediction methods.

  16. Focal mechanisms and inter-event times of low-frequency earthquakes reveal quasi-continuous deformation and triggered slow slip on the deep Alpine Fault

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baratin, Laura-May; Chamberlain, Calum J.; Townend, John; Savage, Martha K.

    2018-02-01

    Characterising the seismicity associated with slow deformation in the vicinity of the Alpine Fault may provide constraints on the stresses acting on a major transpressive margin prior to an anticipated great (≥M8) earthquake. Here, we use recently detected tremor and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) to examine how slow tectonic deformation is loading the Alpine Fault late in its typical ∼300-yr seismic cycle. We analyse a continuous seismic dataset recorded between 2009 and 2016 using a network of 10-13 short-period seismometers, the Southern Alps Microearthquake Borehole Array. Fourteen primary LFE templates are used in an iterative matched-filter and stacking routine, allowing the detection of similar signals corresponding to LFE families sharing common locations. This yields an 8-yr catalogue containing 10,000 LFEs that are combined for each of the 14 LFE families using phase-weighted stacking to produce signals with the highest possible signal-to-noise ratios. We show that LFEs occur almost continuously during the 8-yr study period and highlight two types of LFE distributions: (1) discrete behaviour with an inter-event time exceeding 2 min; (2) burst-like behaviour with an inter-event time below 2 min. We interpret the discrete events as small-scale frequent deformation on the deep extent of the Alpine Fault and LFE bursts (corresponding in most cases to known episodes of tremor or large regional earthquakes) as brief periods of increased slip activity indicative of slow slip. We compute improved non-linear earthquake locations using a 3-D velocity model. LFEs occur below the seismogenic zone at depths of 17-42 km, on or near the hypothesised deep extent of the Alpine Fault. The first estimates of LFE focal mechanisms associated with continental faulting, in conjunction with recurrence intervals, are consistent with quasi-continuous shear faulting on the deep extent of the Alpine Fault.

  17. Probing ultra-fast processes with high dynamic range at 4th-generation light sources: Arrival time and intensity binning at unprecedented repetition rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Kovalev

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Understanding dynamics on ultrafast timescales enables unique and new insights into important processes in the materials and life sciences. In this respect, the fundamental pump-probe approach based on ultra-short photon pulses aims at the creation of stroboscopic movies. Performing such experiments at one of the many recently established accelerator-based 4th-generation light sources such as free-electron lasers or superradiant THz sources allows an enormous widening of the accessible parameter space for the excitation and/or probing light pulses. Compared to table-top devices, critical issues of this type of experiment are fluctuations of the timing between the accelerator and external laser systems and intensity instabilities of the accelerator-based photon sources. Existing solutions have so far been only demonstrated at low repetition rates and/or achieved a limited dynamic range in comparison to table-top experiments, while the 4th generation of accelerator-based light sources is based on superconducting radio-frequency technology, which enables operation at MHz or even GHz repetition rates. In this article, we present the successful demonstration of ultra-fast accelerator-laser pump-probe experiments performed at an unprecedentedly high repetition rate in the few-hundred-kHz regime and with a currently achievable optimal time resolution of 13 fs (rms. Our scheme, based on the pulse-resolved detection of multiple beam parameters relevant for the experiment, allows us to achieve an excellent sensitivity in real-world ultra-fast experiments, as demonstrated for the example of THz-field-driven coherent spin precession.

  18. ¿Ha llegado la hora de la gestión de las listas de espera? Has the time arrived for the management of waiting lists?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Bernal

    2002-10-01

    Full Text Available Las personas que ocupan una lista de espera sufren a menudo un riesgo adicional derivado del tiempo que pasa hasta que obtienen tratamiento; sin embargo, en otras ocasiones, las personas en lista no tienen necesidad del tratamiento por el que esperan. Ambos argumentos, contrastables con evidencias empíricas, serían suficientes para afirmar que debe llegar la gestión a las listas de espera dejando a un lado políticas más o menos oportunistas. Por políticas oportunistas se entiende mantener la mala información sobre listas o su "maquillaje", utilizar programas de autoconcertación sin más horizonte que llegar a final de año sin lista de más de seis meses, etcétera. El panorama no es del todo oscuro. Algunas iniciativas de gestión (incluso de Política con mayúscula se van abriendo paso y pueden entrar en la agenda de los próximos años. Así, cabe destacar la aplicación de tiempos de atención garantizada o la priorización de las listas en función de criterios explícitos. En todo caso, conviene recordar que, con la excepción de las colas producidas en las salas de espera de los centros de salud y aquéllas que se producen en las puertas de urgencias, el resto de colas del sistema están mediadas por la decisión de un médico. Así que una estrategia ineludible para gestionar las listas de espera consiste en atenuar los problemas derivados de la incertidumbre (o ignorancia con respecto al diagnóstico o al pronóstico de los pacientes.Individuals on the waiting list frequently suffer an additional risk caused by the mean time until they receive treatment; however, other individuals do not need the treatment for which they are waiting. Both arguments, which can be contrasted with empirical evidence, would be sufficient to affirm that waiting list management should be implemented, leaving aside policies that are more of less opportunistic. Opportunistic policies are understood as those providing misinformation on waiting lists or

  19. Evaluating the co-production of a near real time Earthquake Aftershock forecasting tool for humanitarian risk assessment and emergency planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Keira; Hope, Max; McCloskey, John; NicBhloscaidh, Mairead; Jimenez, Abigail; Dunlop, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Concern Worldwide and the University of Ulster Geophysics Research Group are engaged in a project to co-produce a suite of software and mapping tools to assess aftershock hazard in near real-time during the emergency response phase of earthquake disaster, and inform humanitarian emergency planning and response activities. This paper uses a social learning approach to evaluate this co-production process. Following Wenger (1999) we differentiate between the earthquake science and humanitarian communities of practice (CoP) along three dimensions: enterprise (the purpose of CoPs and the problems participants are working to address), repertoire (knowledge, skills, language), and identity (values and boundaries). We examine the effectiveness of learning between CoP, focusing on boundary work and objects, and various organisational structures and aspects of the wider political economy of learning that enable and hinder the co-production process. We conclude by identifying a number of ways to more effectively integrate earthquake science into humanitarian decision-making, policy development and programme design.

  20. The 2014 Pisagua-Iquique (Chile) earthquake sequence : geodetic constraints on space-time slip behaviour of a megathrust segment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandin, R.; Ruiz, S.; Metois, M.; Bejar, M.; Vigny, C.; Boudin, F.; Allgeyer, S.; Motagh, M.; Fuenzalida, A.; Leyton, F.; Ruiz, J. A.; Rivera, E.; Vallee, M.; Jara, J.; Cotte, N.; de Chabalier, J. B.; Lacassin, R.; Carrizo, D.; Socquet, A.; Armijo, R.; Ruegg, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    The April 1, 2014 Pisagua earthquake (Mw 8.1) can be considered as the paroxysm of a long sequence of unusually high seismic activity within the Northern Chile megathrust system. The sequence started in March 2014, with two weeks of intense foreshock activity, suggesting that the mainshock may have been trigerred by a slow slip event (Ruiz et al., 2014). The April 1, 2014 mainshock broke a portion of the subduction interface that had been previously identified as highly coupled, and seems to have been limited along strike by two zones of lower coupling. A significant earthquake occurred some 100 km to the south of, and approx. 24 hour after the mainshock (April 3, 2014 Iquique Mw 7.6 earthquake). This sequence illustrates the importance of short-term, short-range earthquake interaction mechanisms in controlling the slip behaviour of a megathrust interface, with important implications on associated hazards. Static surface displacements during each phase of the sequence are determined using a combination of continuous GPS, InSAR (TerraSAR-X ScanSAR) and tide gauge records. Using a single elastic inversion procedure, we invert for the slip distribution associated with the sub-events, as well as interseismic coupling using continuous GPS, campaign GPS and InSAR measurements acquired in the years preceding the sequence. This methodology allows for consistently determining the spatial relationship between the different slip patches (pre-seismic, co-seismic, post-seismic and inter-seismic). The bulk of the moment during the April 1, 2014 earthquake (Mw 8.1) was released 50 km to the south of the hypocenter, 50 km offshore from Pisagua town. In contrast, the April 3, 2014 earthquake (Mw 7.6) occurred beneath the coastal city of Iquique. Coseismic slip during the two main events depicts a complex pattern, broadly complementary with interseismic coupling, preshock / aftershock distribution and post-seismic afterslip. A detailed comparison of the successive sub-events aims at

  1. Earthquake Facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to the Atlantic Ocean, around Africa, Asia, and Australia, and under the Pacific Ocean to the west ... are similar to earthquakes, but occur within the ice sheet itself instead of the land underneath the ...

  2. Small and large earthquakes: evidence for a different rupture beginning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Festa, G.; Colombelli, S.; Zollo, A.; Picozzi, M.

    2014-12-01

    The process of earthquake rupture nucleation and propagation has been investigated through laboratory experiments and theoretical modelling, but a limited number of observations exist at the scale of earthquake fault zones. Distinct models have been proposed, and whether the magnitude can be predicted while the rupture is ongoing represents an unsolved question. The ability to correctly distinguish a small shock from a large event through the analysis of the first P-wave observation is crucial for risk mitigation actions triggered by earthquake early warning systems. Here we show that the evolution of P-wave peak displacement with time is informative regarding the early stage of the rupture process and can be used as a proxy for the final size of the rupture. In the present study, we measure the peak displacement amplitude of filtered P-wave signals over a progressively expanding P-wave time window, starting from the P-wave onset time, and expanding the time window until the expected arrival of the S-waves. We use a large, high-quality dataset of 43 moderate-to-strong Japanese events, in the magnitude range between 4 and 9. We analyzed more than 7000 three-component waveforms recorded at 1,208 stations, spanning a wide distance range (0-500 km). We study the relationship between the time evolution of the peak displacement and the earthquake magnitude itself to investigate a possible different scaling for small and large events. For the analyzed earthquake set, we found that the initial evolution of peak displacement is different between small and large earthquakes. In particular, we show a rapid initial increase of the peak displacement for small events and a slower growth for larger ones. The figure shows the average values of P-wave peak displacement for some representative events while the insert box shows the expected initial slope of the curves for different magnitudes. This result suggests that the evolution of P-wave peak displacement holds information

  3. Integrated SeismoGeodetic Systsem with High-Resolution, Real-Time GNSS and Accelerometer Observation For Earthquake Early Warning Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passmore, P. R.; Jackson, M.; Zimakov, L. G.; Raczka, J.; Davidson, P.

    2014-12-01

    The key requirements for Earthquake Early Warning and other Rapid Event Notification Systems are: Quick delivery of digital data from a field station to the acquisition and processing center; Data integrity for real-time earthquake notification in order to provide warning prior to significant ground shaking in the given target area. These two requirements are met in the recently developed Trimble SG160-09 SeismoGeodetic System, which integrates both GNSS and acceleration measurements using the Kalman filter algorithm to create a new high-rate (200 sps), real-time displacement with sufficient accuracy and very low latency for rapid delivery of the acquired data to a processing center. The data acquisition algorithm in the SG160-09 System provides output of both acceleration and displacement digital data with 0.2 sec delay. This is a significant reduction in the time interval required for real-time transmission compared to data delivery algorithms available in digitizers currently used in other Earthquake Early Warning networks. Both acceleration and displacement data are recorded and transmitted to the processing site in a specially developed Multiplexed Recording Format (MRF) that minimizes the bandwidth required for real-time data transmission. In addition, a built in algorithm calculates the τc and Pd once the event is declared. The SG160-09 System keeps track of what data has not been acknowledged and re-transmits the data giving priority to current data. Modified REF TEK Protocol Daemon (RTPD) receives the digital data and acknowledges data received without error. It forwards this "good" data to processing clients of various real-time data processing software including Earthworm and SeisComP3. The processing clients cache packets when a data gap occurs due to a dropped packet or network outage. The cache packet time is settable, but should not exceed 0.5 sec in the Earthquake Early Warning network configuration. The rapid data transmission algorithm was tested

  4. Charles Darwin's earthquake reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    problems which began to discuss only during the last time. Earthquakes often precede volcanic eruptions. According to Darwin, the earthquake-induced shock may be a common mechanism of the simultaneous eruptions of the volcanoes separated by long distances. In particular, Darwin wrote that ‘… the elevation of many hundred square miles of territory near Concepcion is part of the same phenomenon, with that splashing up, if I may so call it, of volcanic matter through the orifices in the Cordillera at the moment of the shock;…'. According to Darwin the crust is a system where fractured zones, and zones of seismic and volcanic activities interact. Darwin formulated the task of considering together the processes studied now as seismology and volcanology. However the difficulties are such that the study of interactions between earthquakes and volcanoes began only recently and his works on this had relatively little impact on the development of geosciences. In this report, we discuss how the latest data on seismic and volcanic events support the Darwin's observations and ideas about the 1835 Chilean earthquake. The material from researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474 is used. We show how modern mechanical tests from impact engineering and simple experiments with weakly-cohesive materials also support his observations and ideas. On the other hand, we developed the mathematical theory of the earthquake-induced catastrophic wave phenomena. This theory allow to explain the most important aspects the Darwin's earthquake reports. This is achieved through the simplification of fundamental governing equations of considering problems to strongly-nonlinear wave equations. Solutions of these equations are constructed with the help of analytic and numerical techniques. The solutions can model different strongly-nonlinear wave phenomena which generate in a variety of physical context. A comparison with relevant experimental observations is also presented.

  5. Associating an ionospheric parameter with major earthquake ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    With time, ionospheric variation analysis is gaining over lithospheric monitoring in serving precursors for earthquake forecast. The current paper highlights the association of major (Ms ≥ 6.0) and medium (4.0 ≤ Ms > 6.0) earthquake occurrences throughout the world in different ranges of the Ionospheric Earthquake ...

  6. High-frequency precursors to P-wave arrivals in New Zealand : implications for slab structure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilst, R.D. van der; Snieder, R.K.

    1996-01-01

    This report revisits the very early high-frequency slab phases from earthquakes in the Kermadec slab (between −25°S and −37°S) that arrive as a precursor to the P wave onset at stations in New Zealand. The analysis of short-period digital records for station SNZO (South Karori New Zealand) for the

  7. Real-Time Magnitude Characterization of Large Earthquakes Using the Predominant Period Derived From 1 Hz GPS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Psimoulis, Panos A.; Houlié, Nicolas; Behr, Yannik

    2018-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems' performance is driven by the trade-off between the need for a rapid alert and the accuracy of each solution. A challenge for many EEW systems has been the magnitude saturation for large events (MW > 7) and the resulting underestimation of seismic moment magnitude. In this study, we test the performance of high-rate (1 Hz) GPS, based on seven seismic events, to evaluate whether long-period ground motions can be measured well enough to infer reliably earthquake predominant periods. We show that high-rate GPS data allow the computation of a GPS-based predominant period (τg) to estimate lower bounds for the magnitude of earthquakes and distinguish between large (MW > 7) and great (MW > 8) events and thus extend the capability of EEW systems for larger events. It has also identified the impact of the different values of the smoothing factor α on the τg results and how the sampling rate and the computation process differentiate τg from the commonly used τp.

  8. Robust real-time fault tracking for the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku earthquake based on the phased-array-interference principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yong; Wang, Rongjiang; Parolai, Stefano; Zschau, Jochen

    2013-04-01

    Based on the principle of the phased array interference, we have developed an Iterative Deconvolution Stacking (IDS) method for real-time kinematic source inversion using near-field strong-motion and GPS networks. In this method, the seismic and GPS stations work like an array radar. The whole potential fault area is scanned patch by patch by stacking the apparent source time functions, which are obtained through deconvolution between the recorded seismograms and synthetic Green's functions. Once some significant source signals are detected any when and where, their signatures are removed from the observed seismograms. The procedure is repeated until the accumulative seismic moment being found converges and the residual seismograms are reduced below the noise level. The new approach does not need any artificial constraint used in the source parameterization such as, for example, fixing the hypocentre, restricting the rupture velocity and rise time, etc. Thus, it can be used for automatic real-time source inversion. In the application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the IDS method is proved to be robust and reliable on the fast estimation of moment magnitude, fault area, rupture direction, and maximum slip, etc. About at 100 s after the rupture initiation, we can get the information that the rupture mainly propagates along the up-dip direction and causes a maximum slip of 17 m, which is enough to release a tsunami early warning. About two minutes after the earthquake occurrence, the maximum slip is found to be 31 m, and the moment magnitude reaches Mw8.9 which is very close to the final moment magnitude (Mw9.0) of this earthquake.

  9. Earthquakes for Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... dug across a fault to learn about past earthquakes. Science Fair Projects A GPS instrument measures slow movements of the ground. Become an Earthquake Scientist Cool Earthquake Facts Today in Earthquake History ...

  10. Earthquake Hazards Program: Earthquake Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A scenario represents one realization of a potential future earthquake by assuming a particular magnitude, location, and fault-rupture geometry and estimating...

  11. Transient stresses al Parkfield, California, produced by the M 7.4 Landers earthquake of June 28, 1992: implications for the time-dependence of fault friction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. B. Fletcher

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available he M 7.4 Landers earthquake triggered widespread seismicity in the Western U.S. Because the transient dynamic stresses induced at regional distances by the Landers surface waves are much larger than the expected static stresses, the magnitude and the characteristics of the dynamic stresses may bear upon the earthquake triggering mechanism. The Landers earthquake was recorded on the UPSAR array, a group of 14 triaxial accelerometers located within a 1-square-km region 10 km southwest of the town of Parkfield, California, 412 km northwest of the Landers epicenter. We used a standard geodetic inversion procedure to determine the surface strain and stress tensors as functions of time from the observed dynamic displacements. Peak dynamic strains and stresses at the Earth's surface are about 7 microstrain and 0.035 MPa, respectively, and they have a flat amplitude spectrum between 2 s and 15 s period. These stresses agree well with stresses predicted from a simple rule of thumb based upon the ground velocity spectrum observed at a single station. Peak stresses ranged from about 0.035 MPa at the surface to about 0.12 MPa between 2 and 14 km depth, with the sharp increase of stress away from the surface resulting from the rapid increase of rigidity with depth and from the influence of surface wave mode shapes. Comparison of Landers-induced static and dynamic stresses at the hypocenter of the Big Bear aftershock provides a clear example that faults are stronger on time scales of tens of seconds than on time scales of hours or longer.

  12. The arrival of information literacy

    OpenAIRE

    Machin Mastromatteo, Juan D.; Lau, Jesus

    2015-01-01

    Paul Zurkowski coined the term Information Literacy in 1974, since then it has evolved into a dynamic research area within Library and Information Science, with many milestones achieved in Europe and the United States, reflected in English-written literature. This issue of Developing Latin America traces an alternative route, exploring the arrival of information literacy to the region and its main developments.

  13. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

    OpenAIRE

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-01-01

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of th...

  14. The energy radiated by the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake estimated from 10-minute P-wave windows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choy, G.L.; Boatwright, J.

    2007-01-01

    The rupture process of the Mw 9.1 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake lasted for approximately 500 sec, nearly twice as long as the teleseismic time windows between the P and PP arrival times generally used to compute radiated energy. In order to measure the P waves radiated by the entire earthquake, we analyze records that extend from the P-wave to the S-wave arrival times from stations at distances ?? >60??. These 8- to 10-min windows contain the PP, PPP, and ScP arrivals, along with other multiply reflected phases. To gauge the effect of including these additional phases, we form the spectral ratio of the source spectrum estimated from extended windows (between TP and TS) to the source spectrum estimated from normal windows (between TP and TPP). The extended windows are analyzed as though they contained only the P-pP-sP wave group. We analyze four smaller earthquakes that occurred in the vicinity of the Mw 9.1 mainshock, with similar depths and focal mechanisms. These smaller events range in magnitude from an Mw 6.0 aftershock of 9 January 2005 to the Mw 8.6 Nias earthquake that occurred to the south of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on 28 March 2005. We average the spectral ratios for these four events to obtain a frequency-dependent operator for the extended windows. We then correct the source spectrum estimated from the extended records of the 26 December 2004 mainshock to obtain a complete or corrected source spectrum for the entire rupture process (???600 sec) of the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. Our estimate of the total seismic energy radiated by this earthquake is 1.4 ?? 1017 J. When we compare the corrected source spectrum for the entire earthquake to the source spectrum from the first ???250 sec of the rupture process (obtained from normal teleseismic windows), we find that the mainshock radiated much more seismic energy in the first half of the rupture process than in the second half, especially over the period range from 3 sec to 40 sec.

  15. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    and kurtosis both tend to zero for large earthquake rates: for the Gaussian law, these values are identically zero. A calculation of the NBD skewness and kurtosis levels based on the values of the first two statistical moments of the distribution, shows rapid increase of these upper moments levels. However, the observed catalogue values of skewness and kurtosis are rising even faster. This means that for small time intervals, the earthquake number distribution is even more heavy-tailed than the NBD predicts. Therefore for small time intervals, we propose using empirical number distributions appropriately smoothed for testing forecasted earthquake numbers.

  16. Development of a Low-Cost, Station-Based, Broad-Band, Real-Time Positioning Stream for Use in Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henton, J. A.; Rosenberger, A.; Collins, P.; Lu, Y.; Dragert, H.; Caissy, M.; MacLeod, K.; Lahaye, F.; Banville, S.

    2016-12-01

    High-rate low-latency Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data are being utilized for real-time (RT) applications focused on disaster mitigation, including tsunami early warning. RT-GNSS complements other geophysical monitoring (i.e., accelerometer) networks to improve the robust assessment and reporting of hazards. Given the tectonic setting of Canada's west coast, megathrust earthquakes (Mw>8) are the primary targets for immediate identification, since the tsunamis they generate will strike the coast within 15 to 20 min. However, large (6.0

  17. INFLUENCE OF THE SPATIAL ARRANGEMENT OF SEISMIC DETECTORS ON THE ACCURACY OF EARTHQUAKE HYPOCENTRE DETERMINATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. G. Aslanov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To determine the coordinates of the seismic focus of an earthquake with a minimum margin of error with the use of an optimal selection of seismic sensors. Method. Seismic wave velocity data, relying on the time discrepancies between the registering of seismic waves on the seismic sensor and the defined error in determining the time difference, were used to identify errors in the location of an earthquake's hypocenter depending on the respective positions of three seismic sensors. Discrepancies between data containing an error and those without it used to determine two hypocenters provide information about the hypocenter locating error. An analysis of the influence of the respective arrangements of the seismic sensors and the earthquake epicentre on the accuracy of determination of epicentre coordinates was carried out. Results. It is established that, in order to improve the accuracy of epicenter and hypocenter earthquake coordinate determination, it is preferable to use different combinations of seismic sensors. The present recommendations are based on the desire to reduce errors in determining the earthquake source coordinates. Due to earthquake epicenter distance determination errors found in different seismic sensors both with increasing and decreasing distance, the hypocenter coordinate determining error has been found to depend on the respective arrangement of seismic sensors and on the earthquake source's geographical location. In order to determine the dependence of the source coordinate determining error on the relative position of three seismic sensors, the third seismic sensor was displaced on a horizontal plane at the location centered at the coordinate of the origin. Conclusion. When selecting seismic sensors it is essential that one of them be located perpendicular to the center of the segment formed by the other two seismic sensors. The probability of a multidirectional error of measurement at the moment of arrival of

  18. Tomography of the 2011 Iwaki earthquake (M 7.0 and Fukushima nuclear power plant area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Tong

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available High-resolution tomographic images of the crust and upper mantle in and around the area of the 2011 Iwaki earthquake (M 7.0 and the Fukushima nuclear power plant are determined by inverting a large number of high-quality arrival times with both the finite-frequency and ray tomography methods. The Iwaki earthquake and its aftershocks mainly occurred in a boundary zone with strong variations in seismic velocity and Poisson's ratio. Prominent low-velocity and high Poisson's ratio zones are revealed under the Iwaki source area and the Fukushima nuclear power plant, which may reflect fluids released from the dehydration of the subducting Pacific slab under Northeast Japan. The 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake (Mw 9.0 caused static stress transfer in the overriding Okhotsk plate, resulting in the seismicity in the Iwaki source area that significantly increased immediately following the Tohoku-oki mainshock. Our results suggest that the Iwaki earthquake was triggered by the ascending fluids from the Pacific slab dehydration and the stress variation induced by the Tohoku-oki mainshock. The similar structures under the Iwaki source area and the Fukushima nuclear power plant suggest that the security of the nuclear power plant site should be strengthened to withstand potential large earthquakes in the future.

  19. Possible structures of the old Urcunina Caldera, revealed by high precision relocation of VT earthquakes at Galeras volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lizarazo C, M. J.; Alvarado, H.; Sanchez, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    Volcano-Tectonic earthquakes at Galeras Volcano were relocated using the waveform catalog waveform and preliminary phase arrival data compiled by the monitoring network at Observatorio Volcanológico y Sismológico de Pasto. Several routines were developed in MATLAB, mainly to prepare waveforms, calculate differential travel times, and identifying seismic families; and the HypoDD program was implemented, which allowed performing the relocations. The procedure resulted in the detection of 10 swarm-type families and 4 spatial-type families of earthquakes, which reveal a fault of 1.6 km bounding the Urcunina Caldera, and a ring fault of 1.8 km in diameter, adjacent to the crater. Reductions in the range 56.84% - 87.48% were achieved in the hypocentral parameters uncertainties as compared to uncertainties in traditional locations, to finally obtain an alternative image of the Volcano-Tectonic earthquakes distribution Galeras Volcano VG with a significantly lower uncertainty.

  20. Earthquake location determination using data from DOMERAPI and BMKG seismic networks: A preliminary result of DOMERAPI project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramdhan, Mohamad [Study Program of Earth Science, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesa 10, Bandung, 40132 (Indonesia); Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics of Indonesia (BMKG) Jl. Angkasa 1 No. 2 Kemayoran, Jakarta Pusat, 10720 (Indonesia); Nugraha, Andri Dian; Widiyantoro, Sri [Global Geophysics Research Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, Institut TeknologiBandung, Jl. Ganesa 10, Bandung, 40132 (Indonesia); Métaxian, Jean-Philippe [Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) (France); Valencia, Ayunda Aulia, E-mail: mohamad.ramdhan@bmkg.go.id [Study Program of Geophysical Engineering, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Jl. Ganesa 10, Bandung, 40132 (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    DOMERAPI project has been conducted to comprehensively study the internal structure of Merapi volcano, especially about deep structural features beneath the volcano. DOMERAPI earthquake monitoring network consists of 46 broad-band seismometers installed around the Merapi volcano. Earthquake hypocenter determination is a very important step for further studies, such as hypocenter relocation and seismic tomographic imaging. Ray paths from earthquake events occurring outside the Merapi region can be utilized to delineate the deep magma structure. Earthquakes occurring outside the DOMERAPI seismic network will produce an azimuthal gap greater than 180{sup 0}. Owing to this situation the stations from BMKG seismic network can be used jointly to minimize the azimuthal gap. We identified earthquake events manually and carefully, and then picked arrival times of P and S waves. The data from the DOMERAPI seismic network were combined with the BMKG data catalogue to determine earthquake events outside the Merapi region. For future work, we will also use the BPPTKG (Center for Research and Development of Geological Disaster Technology) data catalogue in order to study shallow structures beneath the Merapi volcano. The application of all data catalogues will provide good information as input for further advanced studies and volcano hazards mitigation.

  1. A Threshold-based, on-site earthquake early warning approach for Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Alessandro; Colombelli, Simona; Zollo, Aldo; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2017-04-01

    A real-time strategy for a P-wave based, on-site earthquake early warning system has been developed and tested using the database of Italian earthquakes. The key elements of the proposed methodology are: 1) the real-time, continuous measurement of three peak amplitude parameters (the initial peak of displacement, Pd, velocity, Pv, and acceleration, Pa) along the vertical component of the P-wave signal and 2) their empirical combination to predict the ensuing Peak Ground Velocity at the same site. The observed parameters are compared to prior established threshold values and then converted into a single, dimensionless variable. A local alert level is issued at the recording site as soon as the empirical combination overcomes a given threshold. The three parameters are continuously measured along the recorded signals, starting from the P-wave arrival time, and progressively expanding the time window. A possible risk when using this approach is the inclusion of the S-waves in the analyzed P-wave signal portion, which may lead to an overestimation of the predicted ground shaking level. To minimize the S-wave contamination, an efficient algorithm for the automatic detection of the S-wave arrival time has been included. The algorithm is based on the real-time polarization analysis of the three-component seismogram and on the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) (Rosenberger, 2010; Amoroso et al., 2012) and is able to distinguish variations in the polarization of the original signal, and to discriminate the dominant P-wave signal from the arrival of later S-wave phases. The performance of the method has been evaluated by defining successful, missed and false alarms, and counting the relative percentage, after applying the approach to a testing catalog of Italian earthquake records. The database we used for the system testing and calibration consists of more than 200 Italian events in a magnitude range 3.5 warning system.

  2. A comparison of socio-economic loss analysis from the 2013 Haiyan Typhoon and Bohol Earthquake events in the Philippines in near real-time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Brink, Susan A.; Kunz, Michael; Khazai, Bijan; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2014-05-01

    In the aftermath of a disaster, the extent of the socioeconomic loss (fatalities, homelessness and economic losses) is often not known and it may take days before a reasonable estimate is known. Using the technique of socio-economic fragility functions developed (Daniell, 2014) using a regression of socio-economic indicators through time against historical empirical loss vs. intensity data, a first estimate can be established. With more information from the region as the disaster unfolds, a more detailed estimate can be provided via a calibration of the initial loss estimate parameters. In 2013, two main disasters hit the Philippines; the Bohol earthquake in October and the Haiyan typhoon in November. Although both disasters were contrasting and hit different regions, the same generalised methodology was used for initial rapid estimates and then the updating of the disaster loss estimate through time. The CEDIM Forensic Disaster Analysis Group of KIT and GFZ produced 6 reports for Bohol and 2 reports for Haiyan detailing various aspects of the disasters from the losses to building damage, the socioeconomic profile and also the social networking and disaster response. This study focusses on the loss analysis undertaken. The following technique was used:- 1. A regression of historical earthquake and typhoon losses for the Philippines was examined using the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database, and various Philippines databases respectively. 2. The historical intensity impact of the examined events were placed in a GIS environment in order to allow correlation with the population and capital stock database from 1900-2013 to create a loss function. The modified human development index from 1900-2013 was also used to also calibrate events through time. 3. The earthquake intensity and the wind speed intensity was used from the 2013 events as well as the 2013 capital stock and population in order to calculate the number of fatalities (except in Haiyan), homeless and

  3. Crustal Velocity Structure of the Rio Grande Rift and Rocky Mountains from Local Earthquakes and Blasts Recorded by USArray and CREST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakai, J.; Sheehan, A. F.; Bilek, S. L.

    2015-12-01

    Arrival times from over 3,100 earthquakes and 2,800 mine blasts recorded at USArray Transportable Array (TA) and other regional broadband seismic stations are inverted to find the regional P and S velocity structure in Colorado and New Mexico. Knowledge of the crustal structure in Colorado will help inform to what extent this structure and composition influences the isostatic compensation of high topography in the region. The relationship between the Rio Grande rift and the surrounding physiographic provinces remains enigmatic, and neither the geology nor geophysical surveys have clearly resolved the rift in Colorado. Therefore, tomography may supply more information about velocity variations along the rift within the context of the Colorado Plateau, the Great Plains, and the Rocky Mountains. Thus far, applications with the TA data to resolve P wave crustal structure are rare due to distant station spacing and small magnitude and shallow (mid to upper crustal) local earthquakes. The depths of the earthquakes range from 4 km to the mid-crust, so we expect dense ray coverage in the upper crust. In order to increase the number of crossing rays, we use mine blast P wave arrivals to constrain shallow surface structure. A total of 70,000 P wave arrivals and 18,000 S wave arrivals constitute the dataset. We develop a reliable 1D regional velocity model using 500 of the largest earthquakes with a fixed Vp/Vs ratio from the arrival data, then use this model as an input to investigate the feasibility of utilization of a 3D inversion algorithm. While use of a 3D inversion algorithm will be explored, construction of a series of 1D velocity and Vp/Vs models may prove to be more robust.

  4. Queues with Dropping Functions and General Arrival Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chydzinski, Andrzej; Mrozowski, Pawel

    2016-01-01

    In a queueing system with the dropping function the arriving customer can be denied service (dropped) with the probability that is a function of the queue length at the time of arrival of this customer. The potential applicability of such mechanism is very wide due to the fact that by choosing the shape of this function one can easily manipulate several performance characteristics of the queueing system. In this paper we carry out analysis of the queueing system with the dropping function and a very general model of arrival process--the model which includes batch arrivals and the interarrival time autocorrelation, and allows for fitting the actual shape of the interarrival time distribution and its moments. For such a system we obtain formulas for the distribution of the queue length and the overall customer loss ratio. The analytical results are accompanied with numerical examples computed for several dropping functions.

  5. Rupture Process of the 2014 ML5.5 Orkney Earthquake, South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okubo, M.; Cichowicz, A.; Birch, D.; Ogasawara, H.; Murakami, O.; Horiuchi, S.

    2016-12-01

    An earthquake occurred at 10:22:33 UT on 5 August, with the epicenter near Orkney town near gold mines in the Klerksdorp district in the North West province of South Africa. The Council for Geoscience (CGS) in South Africa reported that the magnitude and depth was ML5.5 and 4.7 km. In this study, we analyzed the main shock waveforms and aftershock distribution to understand the rupture process of this earthquake. At the time of the 2014 Orkney earthquake, 17 strong motion surface stations were in operation and continuous acceleration seismograms were obtained. We picked P and S wave arrival times of the main shock and found two sets of phases in those seismograms. One belongs to a smaller event that occurred at a depth of 4.1 km (5.6 km below ground surface; BGS) with a magnitude less than 3. The other larger event started 0.3 seconds later with a larger magnitude slightly (1 km) north of the first one and at a depth of 4.2 km depth (5.7 km BGS). It seemed appears that the initial rupture was leading led to a main rupture. Next, we applied hypoDD to P and S wave arrival times of the aftershocks, as well as to the initial and main ruptures of the main shock. We found vacant space in the deep parts of the aftershock distribution. This seems to correspond to the initial and main rupture hypocenters. Differences with S-wave arrival time and ideal travel time have information of strong rupture spatial distribution.

  6. Microearthquake detection at 2012 M4.9 Qiaojia earthquake source area , the north of the Xiaojiang Fault in Yunnan, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Yang, H.; Zhou, S.; Yan, C.

    2016-12-01

    We perform a comprehensive analysis in Yunnan area based on continuous seismic data of 38 stations of Qiaojia Network in Xiaojiang Fault from 2012.3 to 2015.2. We use an effective method: Match and Locate (M&L, Zhang&Wen, 2015) to detect and locate microearthquakes to conduct our research. We first study dynamic triggering around the Xiaojiang Fault in Yunnan. The triggered earthquakes are identified as two impulsive seismic arrivals in 2Hz-highpass-filtered velocity seismograms during the passage of surface waves of large teleseismic earthquakes. We only find two earthquakes that may have triggered regional earthquakes through inspecting their spectrograms: Mexico Mw7.4 earthquake in 03/20/2012 and El Salvador Mw7.3 earthquake in 10/14/2014. To confirm the two earthquakes are triggered instead of coincidence, we use M&L to search if there are any repeating earthquakes. The result of the coefficients shows that it is a coincidence during the surface waves of El Salvador earthquake and whether 2012 Mexico have triggered earthquake is under discussion. We then visually inspect the 2-8Hz-bandpass-filterd velocity envelopes of these years to search for non-volcanic tremor. We haven't detected any signals similar to non-volcanic tremors yet. In the following months, we are going to study the 2012 M4.9 Qiaojia earthquake. It occurred only 30km west of the epicenter of the 2014 M6.5 Ludian earthquake. We use Match and Locate (M&L) technique to detect and relocate microearthquakes that occurred 2 days before and 3 days after the mainshock. Through this, we could obtain several times more events than listed in the catalogs provided by NEIC and reduce the magnitude of completeness Mc. We will also detect microearthquakes along Xiaojiang Fault using template earthquakes listed in the catalogs to learn more about fault shape and other properties of Xiaojiang Fault. Analyzing seismicity near Xiaojiang Fault systematically may cast insight on our understanding of the features of

  7. Analysis of changes in traumatic symptoms and daily life activity of children affected by the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami over time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masahide Usami

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: On March 11, 2011, Japan was struck by a massive earthquake and tsunami. The tsunami caused tremendous damage and traumatized a number of people, including children. This study aimed to compare traumatic symptoms and daily life activity among children 20 months after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami with those observed after 8 months. METHODS: The study comprised two groups. The first comprised 12,524 kindergarten, elementary school, and junior high school children in Ishinomaki City, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, who were evaluated 8 months after the disaster. The second comprised 10,597 children from the same place who were evaluated 20 months after the disaster. The Post Traumatic Stress Symptoms for Children 15 items (PTSSC-15, a self-completion questionnaire on traumatic symptoms, and a questionnaire on children's daily life were distributed to the children. An effective response was obtained from 11,639 (92.9%, 8 months after and 10,597 (86.9%, 20 months after children. RESULTS: The PTSSC-15 score was significantly higher in junior high school girls than in boys. The PTSSC-15 score was significantly higher in 4th-6th grade girls than in boys after 8 months. Elementary and junior high school children evaluated after 20 months had a significantly lower PTSSC-15 score than those evaluated after 8 months. The number of children having breakfast was significantly higher after 8 months than that after 20 months. In both the groups, children of all grades who had breakfast had a significantly lower PTSSC-15 score than those who did not have breakfast. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that traumatic symptoms and daily life activity of children who survived the earthquake and tsunami improved over time.

  8. Analysis of changes in traumatic symptoms and daily life activity of children affected by the 2011 Japan earthquake and tsunami over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usami, Masahide; Iwadare, Yoshitaka; Watanabe, Kyota; Kodaira, Masaki; Ushijima, Hirokage; Tanaka, Tetsuya; Harada, Maiko; Tanaka, Hiromi; Sasaki, Yoshinori; Saito, Kazuhiko

    2014-01-01

    On March 11, 2011, Japan was struck by a massive earthquake and tsunami. The tsunami caused tremendous damage and traumatized a number of people, including children. This study aimed to compare traumatic symptoms and daily life activity among children 20 months after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami with those observed after 8 months. The study comprised two groups. The first comprised 12,524 kindergarten, elementary school, and junior high school children in Ishinomaki City, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, who were evaluated 8 months after the disaster. The second comprised 10,597 children from the same place who were evaluated 20 months after the disaster. The Post Traumatic Stress Symptoms for Children 15 items (PTSSC-15), a self-completion questionnaire on traumatic symptoms, and a questionnaire on children's daily life were distributed to the children. An effective response was obtained from 11,639 (92.9%, 8 months after) and 10,597 (86.9%, 20 months after) children. The PTSSC-15 score was significantly higher in junior high school girls than in boys. The PTSSC-15 score was significantly higher in 4th-6th grade girls than in boys after 8 months. Elementary and junior high school children evaluated after 20 months had a significantly lower PTSSC-15 score than those evaluated after 8 months. The number of children having breakfast was significantly higher after 8 months than that after 20 months. In both the groups, children of all grades who had breakfast had a significantly lower PTSSC-15 score than those who did not have breakfast. We conclude that traumatic symptoms and daily life activity of children who survived the earthquake and tsunami improved over time.

  9. Electromagnetic Signals and Earthquakes 2.0: Increasing Signals and Reducing Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunson, J. C.; Bleier, T.; Heraud, J. A.; Muller, S.; Lindholm, C.; Christman, L.; King, R.; Lemon, J.

    2013-12-01

    QuakeFinder has an international network of 150+ Magnetometers and air conductivity instruments located in California, Peru, Chile, Taiwan, and Greece. Since 2000, QuakeFinder has been collecting electromagnetic data and applying simple algorithms to identify and characterize electromagnetic signals that occur in the few weeks prior to earthquakes greater than M4.5. In this presentation, we show refinements to several aspects of our signal identification techniques that enhance detection of pre-earthquake patterns. Our magnetometers have been improved to show longer pulses, and we are now using second generation algorithms that have been refined to detect the proper shape of the earthquake-generated pulses and to allow individual site adjustments. Independent lightning strike data has also now been included to mask out lightning based on amplitude and distance from a given instrument site. Direction of arrival (Azimuth) algorithms have been added to identify patterns of pulse clustering that occur prior to nearby earthquakes. Likewise, positive and negative air ion concentration detection has been improved by building better enclosures, using stainless screens to eliminate insects and some dirt sources, conformal coating PC boards to reduce moisture contamination, and filtering out contaminated data segments based on relative humidity measurements at each site. Infra Red data from the western GOES satellite has been time-filtered, cloud-filtered, and compared to 3 year averages of each pixel's output (by seasonal month) to arrive at a relevant comparison baseline for each night's temperature/cooling slope. All these efforts have helped improve the detection of multiple, nearly simultaneous, electromagnetic signals due to earthquake preparation processes, while reducing false positive indications due to environmental noise sources.

  10. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, L.; Allen, R. M.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that can issue warnings prior to the arrival of strong ground shaking during an earthquake are essential in mitigating seismic hazard. Many of the currently operating EEW systems work on the basis of empirical magnitude-amplitude/frequency scaling relations for a point source. This approach is of limited effectiveness for large events, such as the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, for which ignoring finite source effects may result in underestimation of the magnitude. Here, we explore the concept of characterizing rupture dimensions in real time for EEW using clusters of dense low-cost accelerometers located near active faults. Back tracing the waveforms recorded by such arrays allows the estimation of the earthquake rupture size, duration and directivity in real-time, which enables the EEW of M > 7 earthquakes. The concept is demonstrated with the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, one of the few big events (M>6) that have been recorded by a local small-scale seismic array (UPSAR array, Fletcher et al, 2006). We first test the approach against synthetic rupture scenarios constructed by superposition of empirical Green's functions. We find it important to correct for the bias in back azimuth induced by dipping structures beneath the array. We implemented the proposed methodology to the mainshock in a simulated real-time environment. After calibrating the dipping-layer effect with data from smaller events, we obtained an estimated rupture length of 9 km, consistent with the distance between the two main high frequency subevents identified by back-projection using all local stations (Allman and Shearer, 2007). We proposed to deploy small-scale arrays every 30 km along the San Andreas Fault. The array processing is performed in local processing centers at each array. The output is compared with finite fault solutions based on real-time GPS system and then incorporated into the standard ElarmS system. The optimal aperture and array geometry is

  11. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Daniell

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes.

    Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon.

    Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected, and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured.

    Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto ($214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>$300 billion USD at time of writing, 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product, exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index, and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons.

    This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global

  12. Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisternas, M.; Atwater, B.F.; Torrejon, F.; Sawai, Y.; Machuca, G.; Lagos, M.; Eipert, A.; Youlton, C.; Salgado, I.; Kamataki, T.; Shishikura, M.; Rajendran, C.P.; Malik, J.K.; Rizal, Y.; Husni, M.

    2005-01-01

    It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake's slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended. ?? 2005 Nature Publishing Group.

  13. Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cisternas, Marco; Atwater, Brian F.; Torrejón, Fernando; Sawai, Yuki; Machuca, Gonzalo; Lagos, Marcelo; Eipert, Annaliese; Youlton, Cristián; Salgado, Ignacio; Kamataki, Takanobu; Shishikura, Masanobu; Rajendran, C. P.; Malik, Javed K.; Rizal, Yan; Husni, Muhammad

    2005-09-01

    It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake's slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended.

  14. Incorporation of Multiple Datasets in Earthquake Source Inversions: Case Study for the 2015 Illapel Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, A.; Cummins, P. R.; Newman, A. V.; Benavente, R. F.

    2016-12-01

    The 2015 Illapel, Chile earthquake was recorded over a wide range of seismic, geodetic and oceanographic instruments. The USGS assigned magnitude 8.3 earthquake produced a tsunami that was recorded trans-oceanically at both tide gauges and deep-water tsunami pressure sensors. The event also generated surface deformation along the Chilean coast that was recovered through ascending and descending paths of the Sentinel-1A satellite. Additionally, seismic waves were recorded across various global seismic networks. While the determination of the rupture source through seismic and geodetic means is now commonplace and has been studied extensively in this fashion for the Illapel event, the use of tsunami datasets in the inversion process, rather than purely as a forward validation of models, is less common. In this study, we evaluate the use of both near and far field tsunami pressure gauges in the source inversion process, examining their contribution to seismic and geodetic joint inversions- as well as examine the contribution of dispersive and elastic loading parameters on the numerical tsunami propagation. We determine that the inclusion of near field tsunami pressure gauges assists in resolving the degree of slip in the near-trench environment, where purely geodetic inversions lose most resolvability. The inclusion of a far-field dataset has the potential to add further confidence to tsunami inversions, however at a high computational cost. When applied to the Illapel earthquake, this added near-trench resolvability leads to a better estimation of tsunami arrival times at near field gauges and contributes understanding to the wide variation in tsunamigenic slip present along the highly active Peru-Chile trench.

  15. The Terminator Time in subionospheric VLF/LF diurnal variation as recorded by the Romanian VLF/LF radio monitoring system related to earthquake occurrence and volcano erruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moldovan, I. A.; Moldovan, A. S.; Biagi, P. F.; Ionescu, C.; Schwingenschuh, K.; Boudjada, M. Y.

    2012-04-01

    The Romanian VLF/LF monitoring system consisting in a radio receiver and the infrastructure that is necessary to record and transmit the collected data is part of the European international network named INFREP. Information on electromagnetic fields' intensities created by transmitters at a receiving site are indicating the quality of the propagation along the paths between the receivers and transmitters. Studying the ionosphere's influences on the electromagnetic waves' propagation along a certain path is a method to put into evidence possible modifications of its lower structure and composition as earthquakes' precursors. The VLF/LF receiver installed in Romania was put into operation in February 2009 and has already 3 years of testing, functioning and proving its utility in the forecast of some earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. Simultaneously we monitor, in the same site with the VLF/LF receiver, the vertical atmospheric electric field and different other meteorological parameters as: temperature, pressure or rainfall. The global magnetic conditions are emphasized with the help of Daily Geomagnetic Index Kp. At a basic level, the adopted analysis consists in a simple statistical evaluation of the signals by comparing the instantaneous values to the trend of the signal. In this paper we pay attention to the terminator times in subionospheric VLF/LF diurnal variation, which are defined as the times of minimum in amplitude (or phase) around sunrise and sunset. These terminator times are found to shift significantly just around the earthquake. In the case of Kobe earthquake, there were found significant shifts in both morning and evening terminator times and these authors interpreted the shift in terminator time in terms of the lowering of lower ionosphere by using the full-wave mode theory. A LabVIEW application which accesses the VLF/LF receiver through internet was developed. This program opens the receiver's web-page and automatically retrieves the list of data

  16. The New Seismological Observation System in Chile and a Real time GPS Detection of the Displacement Associated with a M=7.7 Earthquake in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrientos, S. E.

    2014-12-01

    Due to the occurrence of several high-impact earthquakes in Chile within the last few years, governmental authorities decided to improve the seismic monitoring capabilities in the country. Along these lines, in 2013 the University of Chile created the National Seismological Center, an agency that is the continuation of the Seismological Service. The Seismological Center at the University of Chile has been charged with the installation and robust operation of a network which includes three types of observations: acceleration, velocity and displacement. The complete observational system is based on the University´s backbone of more than 60 BB and strong motion instruments which include international collaborations with GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ, Germany), Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP, France) and Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS, USA). To this, 65 broadband, 65 strong-motion and 130 real-time dual-frequency GPS devices are being installed to complement the observational system. Additionally, 297 accelerometers distributed throughout the country will be connected to the main acquisition, processing and distribution system, which is also being upgraded by incorporating hardware virtualization capabilities. It is expected that most of the installation of the remote sensors is completed by the end of 2015. The GPS instruments will be deployed mainly along the coast every 40 or 50 km. Because a robust real-time communication is mandatory from each remote site, the preferred solution is radio link to concentration nodes where the signals (NMEA, including RTX, as well as other protocols such a BINEX, RCTM) can be uploaded to microwaves links or Vsat. Thirty one GPS stations have been deployed in the country, we expect to complete 30more installations this year. As a result of a trial experiment with RTX capabilities (clock and satellite corrections distributed via satellite) coastal horizontal displacements of up to 30 cm were

  17. Quasi-Birth-and-Death Processes with Rational Arrival Process Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bean, Nigel G.; Nielsen, Bo Friis

    to develop an analytic method for such a process, that parallels the analysis of a traditional QBD. We demonstrate the analysis by considering a queue where the arrival process and the sequence of service times are derived from two different RAPs that are not just Markovian Arrival processes. We also......In this paper we introduce the concept of a Quasi-Birth-and-Death process (QBD) with Rational Arrival Process components. We use the physical interpretation of a Rational Arrival Process (RAP), developed by Asmussen and Bladt, to consider such a Markov process. We exploit this interpretation...... introduce an element of correlation between the arrival process and the sequence of service times....

  18. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-15

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  19. Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Paul S.; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  20. A new scheme for joint surface wave and earthquake travel-time inversion and resulting 3-D velocity model for the western North Island, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberhart-Phillips, Donna; Fry, Bill

    2017-08-01

    We have developed a joint inversion of surface wave group velocity (U) and local earthquake travel-time (LET) data and applied it to the North Island, New Zealand, to improve the existing New Zealand wide 3-D seismic velocity model. This approach takes full advantage of the differing sensitivities of surface and body waves. The data are complementary, particularly at shallow depths where LET tomography suffers from vertical smearing and surface wave tomography is susceptible to horizontal smearing. The employed U observations are 2-D models at discrete periods which were developed for Rayleigh wave dispersion curves measured from the 1744 interstation Green's Functions obtained by stacked cross-correlations of broadband ambient noise data. In the volume surrounding each U observation, we distribute numerous points for relating the U observation to the gridded 3-D tomography model, analogous to points along a raypath. The partial derivatives at the points are computed using the U sensitivity kernels for Vp and Vs, with Vs related to Vp and Vp/Vs perturbations. Thus, the U observations are included along with the travel-time observations in a joint inversion to best fit the data and the existing tomography model. The resulting model favors the U where there is little travel-time resolution. The combined inversion used 2949 U observations at 6-16 s period and LET from 1509 earthquakes that extend to 370 km depth, and improved the model fit by reducing the U residual data variance by 62% and the LET by 9%. The resulting model generally has better constrained depth of shallow anomalies, with decreased velocity in the upper 2 km in the western North Island, and slight focusing of crustal high velocity features at 8 km depth. Significantly, the increased resolution in the shallowest 5 km of the model improves the utility of the 3-D model for use in seismic hazard assessment, wave propagation studies, and studies comparing seismic velocities to geological mapping.

  1. Time-lapse changes of P- and S-wave velocities and shear wave splitting in the first year after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Japan: shallow subsurface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawazaki, Kaoru; Snieder, Roel

    2013-04-01

    We detect time-lapse changes in P- and S-wave velocities (hereafter, VP and VS, respectively) and shear wave splitting parameters associated with the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Japan, at depths between 0 and 504 m. We estimate not only medium parameters but also the 95 per cent confidence interval of the estimated velocity change by applying a new least squares inversion scheme to the deconvolution analysis of KiK-net vertical array records. Up to 6 per cent VS reduction is observed at more than half of the analysed KiK-net stations in northeastern Japan with over 95 per cent confidence in the first month after the main shock. There is a considerable correlation between the S-wave traveltime delay and the maximum horizontal dynamic strain (MDS) by the main shock motion when the strain exceeds 5 × 10- 4 on the ground surface. This correlation is not clearly observed for MDS at the borehole bottom. On the contrary, VP and shear wave splitting parameters do not show systematic changes after the Tohoku earthquake. These results indicate that the time-lapse change is concentrated near the ground surface, especially in loosely packed soil layers. We conclude that the behaviour of VP, VS and shear wave splitting parameters are explained by the generation of omnidirectional cracks near the ground surface and by the diffusion of water in the porous subsurface. Recovery of VS should be related to healing of the crack which is proportional to the logarithm of the lapse time after the main shock and/or to decompaction after shaking.

  2. First ionospheric images of the seismic fault slip on the example of the Tohoku-oki earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astafyeva, Elvira; Lognonné, Philippe; Rolland, Lucie

    2011-11-01

    1Hz GPS measurements from the Japanese GPS network GEONET allowed to retrieve information on the seismic fault of the great M9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake from the ionosphere total electron content (TEC) measurements. The first arrival of the TEC perturbation was registered 464 seconds after the earthquake ˜140 km on the east from the epicenter. Within next 45 seconds the distribution of ionospheric points imaged a rectangular area (37.39 - 39.28°N 142.8 - 143.73°E), which coincides with the area of the coseismic crustal uplift. From this source region, the coseismic ionospheric perturbation further propagated at 1.3-1.5 km/s. Such velocity values are 30-40% higher than previously reported for acoustic waves. It is likely that we observed shock-acoustic waves propagating at supersonic speed and having blown all the electrons available between the ground and the height of detection. This fact is coherent with registration of the first arrival of perturbation 464 sec after the earthquake that is, generally speaking, too short time for a regular acoustic wave to reach the ionosphere. Our findings show that the real-time GPS monitoring of seismo-active areas could inform about the parameters of coseismic crustal displacements and can be, subsequently, used for short-term tsunami warnings. In the case of the 03/11/2011 earthquake, the first ionosphere perturbations were registered ˜17 minutes before the tsunami arrived on the east coast of Honshu.

  3. Earthquake Warning Performance in Vallejo for the South Napa Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurman, G.; Price, M.

    2014-12-01

    In 2002 and 2003, Seismic Warning Systems, Inc. installed first-generation QuakeGuardTM earthquake warning devices at all eight fire stations in Vallejo, CA. These devices are designed to detect the P-wave of an earthquake and initiate predetermined protective actions if the impending shaking is estimated at approximately Modifed Mercalli Intensity V or greater. At the Vallejo fire stations the devices were set up to sound an audio alert over the public address system and to command the equipment bay doors to open. In August 2014, after more than 11 years of operating in the fire stations with no false alarms, the five units that were still in use triggered correctly on the MW 6.0 South Napa earthquake, less than 16 km away. The audio alert sounded in all five stations, providing fire fighters with 1.5 to 2.5 seconds of warning before the arrival of the S-wave, and the equipment bay doors opened in three of the stations. In one station the doors were disconnected from the QuakeGuard device, and another station lost power before the doors opened completely. These problems highlight just a small portion of the complexity associated with realizing actionable earthquake warnings. The issues experienced in this earthquake have already been addressed in subsequent QuakeGuard product generations, with downstream connection monitoring and backup power for critical systems. The fact that the fire fighters in Vallejo were afforded even two seconds of warning at these epicentral distances results from the design of the QuakeGuard devices, which focuses on rapid false positive rejection and ground motion estimates. We discuss the performance of the ground motion estimation algorithms, with an emphasis on the accuracy and timeliness of the estimates at close epicentral distances.

  4. Constraining the depth of the time-lapse changes of P- and S-wave velocities in the first year after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawazaki, K.; Kimura, H.; Uchida, N.; Takagi, R.; Snieder, R.

    2012-12-01

    Using deconvolutions of vertical array of KiK-net (nationwide strong-motion seismograph digital network in Japan) records and applying coda wave interferometry (CWI) to Hi-net (high-sensitivity seismograph network in Japan; collocated with a borehole receiver of KiK-net) borehole records, we constrain the responsible depth of the medium changes associated with the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (MW9.0). There is a systematic reduction in VS up to 6% in the shallow subsurface which experienced strong dynamic strain by the Tohoku earthquake. In contrast, both positive and negative changes are observed for VP, which are less than 2% for both directions. We propose that this discrepancy between the changes of VS and VP is explained by the behavior of shear and bulk moduli of a porous medium exposed to an increase of excess pore fluid pressure. At many stations, VS recovers proportional to logarithm of the lapse time after the mainshock, and mostly recovers to the reference value obtained before the mainshock in one year. However, some stations that have been exposed by additional strong motions of aftershocks and/or other earthquakes take much longer time for the recovery. The CWI technique applied to horizontal components of S-coda reveals a velocity reduction up to 0.2% widely along the coastline of northeastern Japan. For the vertical component of P-coda, however, the velocity change is mostly less than 0.1% at the same region. From single scattering model including P-S and S-P conversion scatterings, we verify that both components are sensitive to VS change around the source, but the vertical component of P-coda is sensitive to VP change around the receiver. Consequently, the difference in velocity changes revealed from the horizontal and vertical components represents the difference of VS and VP changes near the receiver. As the conclusion, VS reduction ratio in the deep lithosphere is smaller than that at the shallow ground by 1 to 2 orders.

  5. Defeating Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

  6. The 1887 earthquake and tsunami in the Ligurian Sea: analysis of coastal effects studied by numerical modeling and prototype for real-time computing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monnier, Angélique; Gailler, Audrey; Loevenbruck, Anne; Heinrich, Philippe; Hébert, Hélène

    2017-04-01

    The February 1887 earthquake in Italy (Imperia) triggered a tsunami well observed on the French and Italian coastlines. Tsunami waves were recorded on a tide gauge in the Genoa harbour with a small, recently reappraised maximum amplitude of about 10-12 cm (crest-to-trough). The magnitude of the earthquake is still debated in the recent literature, and discussed according to available macroseismic, tectonic and tsunami data. While the tsunami waveform observed in the Genoa harbour may be well explained with a magnitude smaller than 6.5 (Hébert et al., EGU 2015), we investigate in this study whether such source models are consistent with the tsunami effects reported elsewhere along the coastline. The idea is to take the opportunity of the fine bathymetric data recently synthetized for the French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT) to test the 1887 source parameters using refined, nested grid tsunami numerical modeling down to the harbour scale. Several source parameters are investigated to provide a series of models accounting for various magnitudes and mechanisms. This allows us to compute the tsunami effects for several coastal sites in France (Nice, Villefranche, Antibes, Mandelieu, Cannes) and to compare with observations. Meanwhile we also check the computing time of the chosen scenarios to study whether running nested grids simulation in real time can be suitable in operational context in term of computational cost for these Ligurian scenarios. This work is supported by the FP7 ASTARTE project (Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe, grant 603839 FP7) and by the French PIA TANDEM (Tsunamis in the Atlantic and English ChaNnel: Definition of the Effects through Modeling) project (grant ANR-11-RSNR-00023).

  7. Characterizing potential earthquake signals on the Stanford-USGS ultra-low frequency electromagnetic (ULFEM) array

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christman, L.; Connor, D.; McPhee, D. K.; Glen, J. M.; Klemperer, S. L.

    2012-12-01

    Anomalous ultra-low frequency (0.01-10 Hz) electromagnetic signals have been reported prior to and during M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes in a variety of places around the world, most notably prior to the 1989 Ms 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake in California. Stanford University, in conjunction with the USGS and UC Berkeley, has maintained five ULFEM recording stations along the San Andreas Fault. We are searching our ULFEM data for anomalous signals before earthquakes. Previous reports of possible ULFEM precursors, or their absence following exhaustive searches of available data, define a crude distance-magnitude relationship with larger-closer earthquakes capable of producing detectable precursors. No earthquakes exceeding this distance-magnitude relationship have yet occurred within 500 km of our network; therefore our study is as yet mostly an attempt to develop appropriate methodologies. We examined 40 Hz EM data around the arrival time of the largest/closest earthquakes to our array, focusing on co-shaking signals and pulsations as have been described preceding the 10/31/2007 Alum Rock M 5.4 earthquake. For the three stations in the Bay Area, our search included data from when the BART electric train was operating and also dormant. We observed co-shaking signals at stations between 10-40 km from the epicenters of earthquakes with varying magnitudes (M 2.6-M 6.0). A search of data in the week prior to the Alum Rock earthquake on our closest station (41 km from the epicenter) has thus far identified pulsations of similar duration and polarity as those identified by other workers on a station 2 km from the epicenter (~9 km from the hypocenter). The amplitudes of the majority of the pulsations identified in this study are within several standard deviations of background noise levels and are otherwise not distinguishable from other signals of similar frequency in the time series. To establish and maintain the integrity of the data recorded from the stations in our array, a

  8. A study of rupture characteristics of the 40 s subevent of the 1980 Irpinia earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Pacor

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available The Irpinia project, as carried out by ISMES under a commission from ENEL, had as objectives the developement of a general methodology to simulate broad-band seismic ground motion at near-source and regional distances, and the application of this methodology to the 1980 Irpinia earthquake. Within this general framework, one goal was the comparison of four previously published models for this earthquake in order to arrive at a plausible description of the source process. The comparative study was cast as an inverse problem: that of inferring the spatial extent and temporal behaviour of the rupture process, from geodetic measurements of surface deformation and near-source recordings of ground velocity. This study was complicated by the fact th the Irpinia earthquake was a complex event, involving at least three distinct rupture episodes in a time span of 40 s. However, this same complexity offers the opportunity of illustrating the use of inversion methodologies to 1 infer the spatial slip distribution on a multiple fault system; 2 address the problem of determining the accuracy of the inferred slip models, and 3 use information describing the static characteristics of an earthquakes as an aid in understanding the kinematics of the rupture. This last point is illustrated for the 40 s subevent through the results of a forward modeling study of high-frequency acceleration waveforms using a rupture model based on the inversion results.

  9. Medical complications associated with earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartels, Susan A; VanRooyen, Michael J

    2012-02-25

    Major earthquakes are some of the most devastating natural disasters. The epidemiology of earthquake-related injuries and mortality is unique for these disasters. Because earthquakes frequently affect populous urban areas with poor structural standards, they often result in high death rates and mass casualties with many traumatic injuries. These injuries are highly mechanical and often multisystem, requiring intensive curative medical and surgical care at a time when the local and regional medical response capacities have been at least partly disrupted. Many patients surviving blunt and penetrating trauma and crush injuries have subsequent complications that lead to additional morbidity and mortality. Here, we review and summarise earthquake-induced injuries and medical complications affecting major organ systems. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. On the electric field transient anomaly observed at the time of the Kythira M=6.9 earthquake on January 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Varley

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available The study of the Earth's electromagnetic fields prior to the occurrence of strong seismic events has repeatedly revealed cases were transient anomalies, often deemed as possible earthquake precursors, were observed on electromagnetic field recordings of surface, atmosphere and near space carried out measurements. In an attempt to understand the nature of such signals several models have been proposed based upon the exhibited characteristics of the observed anomalies and different possible generation mechanisms, with electric earthquake precursors (EEP appearing to be the main candidates for short-term earthquake precursors. This paper discusses the detection of a ULF electric field transient anomaly and its identification as a possible electric earthquake precursor accompanying the Kythira M=6.9 earthquake occurred on the 8 January 2006.

  11. Analysis of Luminescence Away from the Epicenter During a Large Earthquake: The Pisco, Peru Mw8 Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heraud, J. A.; Lira, J. A.

    2011-12-01

    The Mw8.0 earthquake in Pisco, Peru of August 15, 2007, produced high damage with a toll of 513 people dead, 2,291 wounded, 76,000 houses and buildings seriously damaged and 431,000 people overall affected. Co-seismic luminescence was reported by thousands of people along the central coast of Peru and especially in Lima, 150 km from the epicenter, being this the first large nighttime earthquake in about 100 years in a highly populated area. Pictures and videos of the lights are available, however those obtained so far, had little information on the timing and direction of the reported lights. Two important videos are analyzed, the first one from a fixed security camera, in order to determine differential time correlation between the timing of the lights recorded with ground acceleration registered by a three-axis accelerometer 500m away and very good results have been observed. This evidence contains important color, shape and timing information which is shown to be highly differential time correlated with the arrival of the seismic waves. Furthermore, the origin of the lights is on the top of a hilly island about 6 km off the coast of Lima where lights were reported in a written chronicle, to have been seen exactly 21 days before the Mega earthquake of October 28, 1746. This was the largest ever to happen in Peru, and produced a Tsunami that washed the port of Callao and reached up to 5km inland. The second video, from another security camera, in a different location, has been further analyzed in order to determine more exactly the direction of the lights and this new evidence will be presented. The fact that a notoriously large and well documented co-seismic luminous phenomena was video recorded more than 150 km from the epicenter during a very large earthquake, is emphasized together with historical documented evidence of pre-seismic luminous activity on the same island, during a mega earthquake of enormous proportions in Lima. Both previously mentioned videos

  12. Catalog of earthquake hypocenters at Alaskan volcanoes: January 1, 1994 through December 31, 1999

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolly, Arthur D.; Stihler, Scott D.; Power, John A.; Lahr, John C.; Paskievitch, John; Tytgat, Guy; Estes, Steve; Lockhart, Andrew B.; Moran, Seth C.; McNutt, Stephen R.; Hammond, William R.

    2001-01-01

    swarm at Akutan volcano in March and April 1996 (Lu and others, 2000); 2) an eruption at Pavlof Volcano in fall 1996 (Garces and others, 2000; McNutt and others, 2000); 3) an earthquake swarm at Iliamna volcano between September and December 1996; 4) an earthquake swarm at Mount Mageik in October 1996 (Jolly and McNutt, 1999); 5) an earthquake swarm located at shallow depth near Strandline Lake; 6) a strong swarm of earthquakes near Becharof Lake; 7) precursory seismicity and an eruption at Shishaldin Volcano in April 1999 that included a 5.2 ML earthquake and aftershock sequence (Moran and others, in press; Thompson and others, in press). The 1996 calendar year is also notable as the seismicity rate was very high, especially in the fall when 3 separate areas (Strandline Lake, Iliamna Volcano, and several of the Katmai volcanoes) experienced high rates of located earthquakes.This catalog covers the period from January 1, 1994, through December 31,1999, and includes: 1) earthquake origin times, hypocenters, and magnitudes with summary statistics describing the earthquake location quality; 2) a description of instruments deployed in the field and their locations and magnifications; 3) a description of earthquake detection, recording, analysis, and data archival; 4) velocity models used for earthquake locations; 5) phase arrival times recorded at individual stations; and 6) a summary of daily station usage from throughout the report period. We have made calculated hypocenters, station locations, system magnifications, velocity models, and phase arrival information available for download via computer network as a compressed Unix tar file.

  13. San Fernando Valley California Earthquakes of 1971 and 1994

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This slide set compares two earthquakes that were separated by a distance of 10 miles and a time of 23 years. Disproving the notion that once an earthquake has...

  14. Twitter earthquake detection: earthquake monitoring in a social world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel C. Bowden

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word “earthquake” clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  15. Rapid telemetry and earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, R.; Bose, M.; Brown, H.; Cua, G.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Heaton, T.; Hellweg, M.; Jordan, T.; Kireev, A.; Maechling, P.; Neuhauser, D.; Oppenheimer, D.; Solanki, K.; Zeleznik, M.

    2008-05-01

    The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) is currently testing algorithms for earthquake early warning on the realtime seismic systems in the state. An earthquake warning system rapidly detects the initiation of earthquakes and assesses the associated hazard. The goal is to provide warning of potentially damaging ground motion in a target region prior to the arrival of seismic waves. The network-based approach to early warning requires station data to be gathered at a central site for joint processing. ElarmS, one network-based approach being tested, currently runs 15 sec behind realtime in order to gather ~90% of station data before processing. Even with this delay the recent Mw 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake near San Jose was detected and an accurate hazard assessment was available before ground shaking in San Francisco. The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method, another network-based approach, is a Bayesian method that incorporates information such as network topology, previously observed seismicity, and the Gutenberg-Richter relationship in magnitude and location estimation. The VS method is currently being transitioned from off-line to real-time testing and will soon be running 15 sec behind real-time, as in the case of ElarmS. We are also testing an on-site warning approach, which is based on single-station observations. On-site systems can deliver earthquake information faster than regional systems, and the warning could possibly reach potential users at much closer epicentral distances before the damaging shaking starts. By definition, on-site systems do not require a central processing facility or delivery of data from a distant seismic station, but they are less robust that networked-based systems and need a fast and reliable telemetry to deliver warnings to local users. The range of possible warning times is typically seconds to tens of seconds and every second of data latency translates into an equal reduction in the available warning time. Minimal latency

  16. A possible scenario for earlier occurrence of the next Nankai earthquake due to triggering by an earthquake at Hyuga-nada, off southwest Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyodo, Mamoru; Hori, Takane; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki

    2016-01-01

    Several recent large-scale earthquakes including the 2011 Tohoku earthquake ( M w 9.0) in northeastern Japan and the 2014 Iquique earthquake ( M w 8.1) in northern Chile were associated with foreshock activities ( M w > 6). The detailed mechanisms between these large earthquakes and the preceding smaller earthquakes are still unknown; however, to plan for disaster mitigation against the anticipated great Nankai Trough earthquakes, in this study, possible scenarios after M w 7-class earthquakes that frequently occur near the focal region of the Nankai Trough are examined through quasi-dynamic modeling of seismic cycles. By assuming that simulated Nankai Trough earthquakes recur as two alternative earthquakes with variations in magnitudes ( M w 8.7-8.4) and recurrence intervals (178-143 years), we systematically examine the effect of the occurrence timing of the M w 7 Hyuga-nada earthquake on the western extension of the source region of Nankai Trough earthquakes on the assumed Nankai Trough seismic cycles. We find that in the latter half of a seismic cycle preceding a large Nankai Trough earthquake, an immature Nankai earthquake tends to be triggered within several years after the occurrence of a Hyuga-nada earthquake, then Tokai (Tonankai) earthquakes occur with maximum time lags of several years. The combined magnitudes of the triggered Nankai and subsequent Tokai (Tonankai) earthquakes become gradually larger with later occurrence of the Hyuga-nada earthquake, while the rupture timings between the Nankai and Tokai (Tonankai) earthquakes become smaller. The triggered occurrence of an immature Nankai Trough earthquake could delay the expected larger Nankai Trough earthquake to the next seismic cycle. Our results indicate that triggering can explain the variety and complexity of historical Nankai Trough earthquakes. Moreover, for the next anticipated event, countermeasures should include the possibility of a triggered occurrence of a Nankai Trough earthquake by an M

  17. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  18. Patterns of fault interactions triggered by micro earthquake activity

    OpenAIRE

    V. Mouslopoulou; D. Hristopulos

    2010-01-01

    Historical earthquakes are often strongly clustered in space and time. This clustering has been attributed to static stress triggering associated with tectonic fault interactions and/or fluid migration. Discrimination between these two models requires detailed information on the timing, location and size of earthquakes. The Matata earthquake sequence, which occurred within the active Taupo Rift in New Zealand, provides a unique opportunity to chart spatial and temporal patterns of earthquakes...

  19. Time-Varying Seismogenic Coulomb Electric Fields as a Probable Source for Pre-Earthquake Variation in the Ionospheric F2-Layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Vitaly P.; Hegai, Valery V.; Liu, Jann Yenq; Ryu, Kwangsun; Chung, Jong-Kyun

    2017-12-01

    The electric coupling between the lithosphere and the ionosphere is examined. The electric field is considered as a time- varying irregular vertical Coulomb field presumably produced on the Earth’s surface before an earthquake within its epicentral zone by some micro-processes in the lithosphere. It is shown that the Fourier component of this electric field with a frequency of 500 Hz and a horizontal scale-size of 100 km produces in the nighttime ionosphere of high and middle latitudes a transverse electric field with a magnitude of 20 mV/m if the peak value of the amplitude of this Fourier component is just 30 V/m. The time-varying vertical Coulomb field with a frequency of 500 Hz penetrates from the ground into the ionosphere by a factor of 7×105 more efficient than a time independent vertical electrostatic field of the same scale size. The transverse electric field with amplitude of 20 mV/m will cause perturbations in the nighttime F region electron density through heating the F region plasma resulting in a reduction of the downward plasma flux from the protonosphere and an excitation of acoustic gravity waves.

  20. Liquid Argon Barrel Cryostat Arrived

    CERN Multimedia

    Pailler, P

    Last week the first of three cryostats for the ATLAS liquid argon calorimeter arrived at CERN. It had travelled for 46 days over several thousand kilometers from Japan to CERN. During three years it has been fabricated by Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd. at Harima, close to Kobe, under contract from Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) of the U.S.. This cryostat consists of two concentric cylinders made of aluminium: the outer vacuum vessel with a diameter of 5.5 m and a length of 7 m, and the inner cold vessel which will contain the electromagnetic barrel calorimeter immersed in liquid argon. The total weight will be 270 tons including the detectors and the liquid argon. The cryostat is now located in building 180 where it will be equipped with 64 feed-throughs which serve for the passage of 122,880 electrical lines which will carry the signals of the calorimeter. After integration of the calorimeter, the solenoidal magnet of ATLAS will be integrated in the vacuum vessel. A final cold test of the cryostat inc...

  1. Insignificant solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.; Thomas, Jeremy N.

    2013-01-01

    We examine the claim that solar-terrestrial interaction, as measured by sunspots, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity, might play a role in triggering earthquakes. We count the number of earthquakes having magnitudes that exceed chosen thresholds in calendar years, months, and days, and we order these counts by the corresponding rank of annual, monthly, and daily averages of the solar-terrestrial variables. We measure the statistical significance of the difference between the earthquake-number distributions below and above the median of the solar-terrestrial averages by χ2 and Student's t tests. Across a range of earthquake magnitude thresholds, we find no consistent and statistically significant distributional differences. We also introduce time lags between the solar-terrestrial variables and the number of earthquakes, but again no statistically significant distributional difference is found. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of no solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes.

  2. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Keilis-Borok, V.I. (International Inst. of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow (USSR)); Smith, S.W. (Univ. of Washington, Seattle (USA))

    1990-11-10

    Relative seismic quiescence within a region which has already been diagnosed as having entered a Time of Increased Probability (TIP) for the occurrence of a strong earthquake can be used to refine the locality in which the earthquake may be expected to occur. A simple algorithm with parameters fitted from the data in Northern California preceding the 1980 magnitude 7.0 earthquake offshore from Eureka depicts relative quiescence within the region of a TIP. The procedure was tested, without readaptation of parameter, on 17 other strong earthquake occurrences in North America, Japan, and Eurasia, most of which were in regions for which a TIP had been previously diagnosed. The localizing algorithm successfully outlined a region within which the subsequent earthquake occurred for 16 of these 17 strong earthquakes. The area of prediction in each case was reduced significantly, ranging between 7% and 25% of the total area covered by the TIP.

  3. A smartphone application for earthquakes that matter!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossu, Rémy; Etivant, Caroline; Roussel, Fréderic; Mazet-Roux, Gilles; Steed, Robert

    2014-05-01

    Smartphone applications have swiftly become one of the most popular tools for rapid reception of earthquake information for the public, some of them having been downloaded more than 1 million times! The advantages are obvious: wherever someone's own location is, they can be automatically informed when an earthquake has struck. Just by setting a magnitude threshold and an area of interest, there is no longer the need to browse the internet as the information reaches you automatically and instantaneously! One question remains: are the provided earthquake notifications always relevant for the public? What are the earthquakes that really matters to laypeople? One clue may be derived from some newspaper reports that show that a while after damaging earthquakes many eyewitnesses scrap the application they installed just after the mainshock. Why? Because either the magnitude threshold is set too high and many felt earthquakes are missed, or it is set too low and the majority of the notifications are related to unfelt earthquakes thereby only increasing anxiety among the population at each new update. Felt and damaging earthquakes are the ones that matter the most for the public (and authorities). They are the ones of societal importance even when of small magnitude. A smartphone application developed by EMSC (Euro-Med Seismological Centre) with the financial support of the Fondation MAIF aims at providing suitable notifications for earthquakes by collating different information threads covering tsunamigenic, potentially damaging and felt earthquakes. Tsunamigenic earthquakes are considered here to be those ones that are the subject of alert or information messages from the PTWC (Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre). While potentially damaging earthquakes are identified through an automated system called EQIA (Earthquake Qualitative Impact Assessment) developed and operated at EMSC. This rapidly assesses earthquake impact by comparing the population exposed to each expected

  4. FORECASTING TOURIST ARRIVALS TO LANGKAWI ISLAND MALAYSIA

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kamarul Ariffin MANSOR; Wan Irham ISHAK

    2015-01-01

    .... Therefore, forecasting tourist arrivals with high accuracy becomes important since it may ensure the development and the readiness of all tourism related industries such as hotels, transportation...

  5. A minimalist model of characteristic earthquakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vázquez-Prada, M.; González, Á.; Gómez, J.B.

    2002-01-01

    In a spirit akin to the sandpile model of self- organized criticality, we present a simple statistical model of the cellular-automaton type which simulates the role of an asperity in the dynamics of a one-dimensional fault. This model produces an earthquake spectrum similar to the characteristic-earthquake...... behaviour of some seismic faults. This model, that has no parameter, is amenable to an algebraic description as a Markov Chain. This possibility illuminates some important results, obtained by Monte Carlo simulations, such as the earthquake size-frequency relation and the recurrence time...... of the characteristic earthquake....

  6. Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takarada, S.

    2012-12-01

    The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

  7. New Velocity field for Northern Colombia and Western Venezuela and implications for a great earthquake in the Southwest Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mencin, D.; Mora-Páez, H.; Bilham, R. G.; Mattioli, G. S.; La Femina, P. C.; Audemard, F. A.; Molnar, P. H.; Perez, O. J.

    2016-12-01

    The motion of the Caribbean plate is approximately due east relative to the South American Plate. In NE Venezula, plate motion is largely taken up by pure strike slip motion along the El Pilar fault, but in northern Colombia motion is partitioned between the strike-slip Bocono fault system and normal convergence along the northern coast of Colombia . Recent densification of GPS networks through the NSF funded COLOVEN and COCONet projects, seismic reflection profiles, and revised earthquake locations suggest the existence of incipient oblique subduction zone at 10 mm/yr beneath the coast of NE Colombia. Although there is no history of major subduction zone earthquakes since the arrival of Europeans in the region, and no volcanism indicative of well-established deep subduction, there is evidence for incremental coastal uplift and local subsidence in the past several thousand years, and both local and distant tsunami, which may owe their origin to pre-European arrival events. At Chengue, NE of Santa Marta, a well dated shell and gravel tsunami horizon within a salt marsh sequence, appears to have been emplaced 1200 years ago, and this may correspond to a tsunami deposit of similar age on the southeast Yucatan peninsula, and near Cartagena. The probable rupture area and slip deficit since that time suggests the potential for a great earthquake in the region, with a possible magnitude of 8.0

  8. Tempo de chegada do paciente com infarto agudo do miocárdio em unidade de emergência Time of arrival of patients with acute myocardial infarction to the emergency department

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandra Soler Bastos

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Caracterizar o perfil das pessoas com infarto agudo do miocárdio (IAM atendidas em um serviço de emergência e verificar o tempo de chegada (delta T. Identificar como o paciente foi transportado e correlacionar o delta T com o tratamento e prognóstico do mesmo. MÉTODOS: Pesquisa transversal, incluindo 52 pacientes admitidos na Unidade de Emergência de um Hospital de Ensino com diagnóstico de IAM, no período de julho a dezembro de 2010. A coleta de dados foi realizada por meio do prontuário e entrevista. RESULTADOS: A maioria dos pacientes era do gênero masculino, com idade média de 62,35 ± 14,66 anos, casada, poucos anos de estudo, histórico familiar de doença cardíaca, hipertensão arterial, dislipidemia e sedentarismo. Os sintomas apresentados foram dor no tórax, região epigástrica ou desconforto torácico associado à dispneia e/ou sudorese súbita. A maioria dos pacientes foi transportada por ambulância e submetida a cateterismo cardíaco, seguido de angioplastia. O delta T encontrado foi 9h54min ± 18h9min. A letalidade global do estudo foi de 3,85%. CONCLUSÃO: O reconhecimento dos sinais e sintomas do IAM pelo paciente foi fator determinante para a procura de atendimento especializado e aqueles com menor delta T apresentaram melhor prognóstico.OBJECTIVES: To characterize the profile of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI treated at the emergency department and to verify the time of arrival of each patient (ΔT. Identify how the patient was transported and to correlate Delta-T (ΔT with the treatment and the prognosis of each patient. METHODS: Cross-sectional survey involving 52 patients with AMI admitted to the Emergency Department of a Teaching Hospital took part in the study from July to December 2010. Data collection was performed using medical records and interviews. RESULTS: The majority of the patients were male with a mean age of 62.35 ± 14.66 years. The participants were married, with low

  9. Changes in animal activity prior to a major (M = 7) earthquake in the Peruvian Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Rachel A.; Raulin, Jean Pierre; Freund, Friedemann T.

    During earthquake preparation geophysical processes occur over varying temporal and spatial scales, some leaving their mark on the surface environment, on various biota, and even affecting the ionosphere. Reports on pre-seismic changes in animal behaviour have been greeted with scepticism by the scientific community due to the necessarily anecdotal nature of much of the evidence and a lack of consensus over possible causal mechanisms. Here we present records of changes in the abundance of mammals and birds obtained over a 30 day period by motion-triggered cameras at the Yanachaga National Park, Peru, prior to the 2011 magnitude 7.0 Contamana earthquake. In addition we report on ionospheric perturbations derived from night-time very low frequency (VLF) phase data along a propagation paths passing over the epicentral region. Animal activity declined significantly over a 3-week period prior to the earthquake compared to periods of low seismic activity. Night-time ionospheric phase perturbations of the VLF signals above the epicentral area, fluctuating over the course of a few minutes, were observed, starting 2 weeks before the earthquake. The concurrent observation of two widely different and seemingly unconnected precursory phenomena is of interest because recently, it has been proposed that the multitude of reported pre-earthquake phenomena may arise from a single underlying physical process: the stress-activation of highly mobile electronic charge carriers in the Earth's crust and their flow to the Earth's surface. The flow of charge carriers through the rock column constitutes an electric current, which is expected to fluctuate and thereby emit electromagnetic radiation in the ultralow frequency (ULF) regime. The arrival of the charge carriers can lead to air ionization at the ground-to-air interface and the injection of massive amounts of positive airborne ions, known to be aversive to animals.

  10. Age at Arrival and Life Chances Among Childhood Immigrants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermansen, Are Skeie

    2017-02-01

    This study examines the causal relationship between childhood immigrants' age at arrival and their life chances as adults. I analyze panel data on siblings from Norwegian administrative registries, which enables me to disentangle the effect of age at arrival on adult socioeconomic outcomes from all fixed family-level conditions and endowments shared by siblings. Results from sibling fixed-effects models reveal a progressively stronger adverse influence of immigration at later stages of childhood on completed education, employment, adult earnings, occupational attainment, and social welfare assistance. The persistence of these relationships within families indicates that experiences related to the timing of childhood immigration have causal effects on later-life outcomes. These age-at-arrival effects are considerably stronger among children who arrive from geographically distant and economically less-developed origin regions than among children originating from developed countries. The age-at-arrival effects vary less by parental education and child gender. On the whole, the findings indicate that childhood immigration after an early-life formative period tends to constrain later human capital formation and economic opportunities over the life course.

  11. Two queues with non-stochastic arrivals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walton, N.S.

    2014-01-01

    This article presents a paradigm where no stochastic assumptions are made on a queue’s arrival process. To this end, we study two queueing systems which exhibit a form of stability under an arbitrary arrival process. The first queueing system applies Blackwell’s Approachability Theorem and the

  12. 8 CFR 232.3 - Arriving aliens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Arriving aliens. 232.3 Section 232.3 Aliens and Nationality DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY IMMIGRATION REGULATIONS DETENTION OF ALIENS FOR PHYSICAL AND MENTAL EXAMINATION § 232.3 Arriving aliens. When a district director has reasonable grounds...

  13. Understanding earthquake hazards in urban areas - Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, Oliver S.

    2012-01-01

    The region surrounding Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the proximity of Evansville to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern among nearby communities about hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake and are able to design structures to withstand this estimated ground shaking. Earthquake-hazard maps provide one way of conveying such information and can help the region of Evansville prepare for future earthquakes and reduce earthquake-caused loss of life and financial and structural loss. The Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) has produced three types of hazard maps for the Evansville area: (1) probabilistic seismic-hazard maps show the ground motion that is expected to be exceeded with a given probability within a given period of time; (2) scenario ground-shaking maps show the expected shaking from two specific scenario earthquakes; (3) liquefaction-potential maps show how likely the strong ground shaking from the scenario earthquakes is to produce liquefaction. These maps complement the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Maps but are more detailed regionally and take into account surficial geology, soil thickness, and soil stiffness; these elements greatly affect ground shaking.

  14. Superconducting Gravimeters Detect Gravity Fluctuations Induced by Mw 5.7 Earthquake Along South Pacific Rise Few Hours Before the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keliang Zhang Jin Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Gravity changes sometimes appear before a big earthquake. To determine the possible sources is important for recognizing the mechanism and further geodynamic studies. During the first two hours on March 11 before the Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, the non-tidal gravity time series of superconducting gravimeters worldwide showed low-frequency (< 0.10 Hz fluctuations with amplitude of ~1 to 4 × 10-8 ms-2 lasting ~10 - 20 minutes. Through comparing global seismicity with the arrival times of seismic waves, we find that the fluctuations were induced by the Mw 5.7 earthquake that occurred at 0:14:54.68 at (53.27°S, 118.18°W along the eastern South Pacific Rise. Several body waves such as P, S are clearly recorded in the station with ~400 km distance to the hypocenter. The fluctuations are in response to the waves that propagate with a velocity of about 4 km s-1. Their amplitudes are proportional to the inverse of the epicentral distances even though the fluctuations of European sites were overlapped with waves associated with a smaller, i.e., Mw 2.6, event in Europe during this period. That is, the Mw 5.7 earthquake induced remarkable gravity fluctuations over long distances at stations all over the world. As such, the foreshocks with larger magnitudes occurred before the Mw 9.0 earthquake would have more significant influence on the gravity recordings and the seismic-wave induced component should be removed during the analysis of anomalies prior to a great earthquake in future studies.

  15. Identified EM Earthquake Precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kenneth, II; Saxton, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    recurrence, duration, and frequency response. At the Southern California field sites, one loop antenna was positioned for omni-directional reception and also detected a strong First Schumann Resonance; however, additional Schumann Resonances were absent. At the Timpson, TX field sites, loop antennae were positioned for directional reception, due to earthquake-induced, hydraulic fracturing activity currently conducted by the oil and gas industry. Two strong signals, one moderately strong signal, and approximately 6-8 weaker signals were detected in the immediate vicinity. The three stronger signals were mapped by a biangulation technique, followed by a triangulation technique for confirmation. This was the first antenna mapping technique ever performed for determining possible earthquake epicenters. Six and a half months later, Timpson experienced two M4 (M4.1 and M4.3) earthquakes on September 2, 2013 followed by a M2.4 earthquake three days later, all occurring at a depth of five kilometers. The Timpson earthquake activity now has a cyclical rate and a forecast was given to the proper authorities. As a result, the Southern California and Timpson, TX field results led to an improved design and construction of a third prototype antenna. With a loop antenna array, a viable communication system, and continuous monitoring, a full fracture cycle can be established and observed in real-time. In addition, field data could be reviewed quickly for assessment and lead to a much more improved earthquake forecasting capability. The EM precursors determined by this method appear to surpass all prior precursor claims, and the general public will finally receive long overdue forecasting.

  16. Healthcare system information at language schools for newly arrived immigrants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tynell, Lena Lyngholt; Wimmelmann, Camilla Lawaetz; Jervelund, Signe Smith

    2017-01-01

    Objective: In most European countries, immigrants do not systematically learn about the host countries’ healthcare system when arriving. This study investigated how newly arrived immigrants perceived the information they received about the Danish healthcare system. Method: Immigrants attending...... a language school in Copenhagen in 2012 received either a course or written information on the Danish healthcare system and subsequently evaluated this quantitatively. Results: The evaluation revealed a positive appraisal of the course/information provided. Conclusion: In times of austerity, incorporating...... healthcare information into an already existing language programme may be pertinent for providing immigrants with knowledge on the healthcare system....

  17. Thermal Infrared Anomalies of Several Strong Earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Congxin Wei

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the history of earthquake thermal infrared research, it is undeniable that before and after strong earthquakes there are significant thermal infrared anomalies which have been interpreted as preseismic precursor in earthquake prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we studied the characteristics of thermal radiation observed before and after the 8 great earthquakes with magnitude up to Ms7.0 by using the satellite infrared remote sensing information. We used new types of data and method to extract the useful anomaly information. Based on the analyses of 8 earthquakes, we got the results as follows. (1 There are significant thermal radiation anomalies before and after earthquakes for all cases. The overall performance of anomalies includes two main stages: expanding first and narrowing later. We easily extracted and identified such seismic anomalies by method of “time-frequency relative power spectrum.” (2 There exist evident and different characteristic periods and magnitudes of thermal abnormal radiation for each case. (3 Thermal radiation anomalies are closely related to the geological structure. (4 Thermal radiation has obvious characteristics in abnormal duration, range, and morphology. In summary, we should be sure that earthquake thermal infrared anomalies as useful earthquake precursor can be used in earthquake prediction and forecasting.

  18. Statistical tests of simple earthquake cycle models

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeVries, Phoebe M. R.; Evans, Eileen L.

    2016-12-01

    A central goal of observing and modeling the earthquake cycle is to forecast when a particular fault may generate an earthquake: a fault late in its earthquake cycle may be more likely to generate an earthquake than a fault early in its earthquake cycle. Models that can explain geodetic observations throughout the entire earthquake cycle may be required to gain a more complete understanding of relevant physics and phenomenology. Previous efforts to develop unified earthquake models for strike-slip faults have largely focused on explaining both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations available across a few faults in California, Turkey, and Tibet. An alternative approach leverages the global distribution of geodetic and geologic slip rate estimates on strike-slip faults worldwide. Here we use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for similarity of distributions to infer, in a statistically rigorous manner, viscoelastic earthquake cycle models that are inconsistent with 15 sets of observations across major strike-slip faults. We reject a large subset of two-layer models incorporating Burgers rheologies at a significance level of α = 0.05 (those with long-term Maxwell viscosities ηM 4.6 × 1020 Pa s) but cannot reject models on the basis of transient Kelvin viscosity ηK. Finally, we examine the implications of these results for the predicted earthquake cycle timing of the 15 faults considered and compare these predictions to the geologic and historical record.

  19. Thermal infrared anomalies of several strong earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Congxin; Zhang, Yuansheng; Guo, Xiao; Hui, Shaoxing; Qin, Manzhong; Zhang, Ying

    2013-01-01

    In the history of earthquake thermal infrared research, it is undeniable that before and after strong earthquakes there are significant thermal infrared anomalies which have been interpreted as preseismic precursor in earthquake prediction and forecasting. In this paper, we studied the characteristics of thermal radiation observed before and after the 8 great earthquakes with magnitude up to Ms7.0 by using the satellite infrared remote sensing information. We used new types of data and method to extract the useful anomaly information. Based on the analyses of 8 earthquakes, we got the results as follows. (1) There are significant thermal radiation anomalies before and after earthquakes for all cases. The overall performance of anomalies includes two main stages: expanding first and narrowing later. We easily extracted and identified such seismic anomalies by method of "time-frequency relative power spectrum." (2) There exist evident and different characteristic periods and magnitudes of thermal abnormal radiation for each case. (3) Thermal radiation anomalies are closely related to the geological structure. (4) Thermal radiation has obvious characteristics in abnormal duration, range, and morphology. In summary, we should be sure that earthquake thermal infrared anomalies as useful earthquake precursor can be used in earthquake prediction and forecasting.

  20. Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake, January 17, 1995

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Earthquake - At 5:46 A.M. local time on January 17, 1995, a major earthquake occurred near the City of Kobe, Japan. The 6.9 magnitude earthquake had 40 km of...

  1. Analysis of intermediate period correlations of coda from deep earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poli, Piero; Campillo, Michel; de Hoop, Maarten

    2017-11-01

    We aim at assessing quantitatively the nature of the signals that appear in coda wave correlations at periods >20 s. These signals contain transient constituents with arrival times corresponding to deep seismic phases. These (body-wave) constituents can be used for imaging. To evaluate this approach, we calculate the autocorrelations of the vertical component seismograms for the Mw 8.4 sea of Okhotsk earthquake at 400 stations in the Eastern US, using data from 1 h before to 50 h after the earthquake. By using array analysis and modes identification, we discover the dominant role played by high quality factor normal modes in the emergence of strong coherent phases as ScS-like, and P'P'df-like. We then make use of geometrical quantization to derive the constituent rays associated with particular modes, and gain insights about the ballistic reverberation of the rays that contributes to the emergence of body waves. Our study indicates that the signals measured in the spatially averaged autocorrelations have a physical significance, but a direct interpretation of ScS-like and P'P'df-like is not trivial. Indeed, even a single simple measurement of long period late coda in a limited period band could provide valuable information on the deep structure by using the temporal information of its autocorrelation, a procedure that could be also useful for planetary exploration.

  2. The queue M|G|1 with Markov modulated arrivals and services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Regterschot, G.J.K.; de Smit, J.H.A.

    1986-01-01

    We study an M|G|1 queue in which both the arrival rate and the service time distribution depend on the state of an underlying finite-state Markov chain. The solution is obtained by a matrix factorization method. This leads to results for waiting times and queue lengths both at arrival epochs and in

  3. Double Difference Earthquake Locations at the Salton Sea Geothermal Reservoir

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boyle, K L; Hutchings, L J; Bonner, B P; Foxall, W; Kasameyer, P W

    2007-08-08

    The purpose of this paper is to report on processing of raw waveform data from 4547 events recorded at 12 stations between 2001 and 2005 by the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) seismic network. We identified a central region of the network where vertically elongated distributions of hypocenters have previously been located from regional network analysis. We process the data from the local network by first autopicking first P and S arrivals; second, improving these with hand picks when necessary; then, using cross-correlation to provide very precise P and S relative arrival times. We used the HypoDD earthquake location algorithm to locate the events. We found that the originally elongated distributions of hypocenters became more tightly clustered and extend down the extent of the study volume at 10 Km. However, we found the shapes to depend on choices of location parameters. We speculate that these narrow elongated zones of seismicity may be due to stress release caused by fluid flow.

  4. Laboratory generated M -6 earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Beeler, Nicholas M.

    2014-01-01

    We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick–slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick–slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3–6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1–10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes.

  5. Seismicity map tools for earthquake studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucouvalas, Anthony; Kaskebes, Athanasios; Tselikas, Nikos

    2014-05-01

    We report on the development of new and online set of tools for use within Google Maps, for earthquake research. We demonstrate this server based and online platform (developped with PHP, Javascript, MySQL) with the new tools using a database system with earthquake data. The platform allows us to carry out statistical and deterministic analysis on earthquake data use of Google Maps and plot various seismicity graphs. The tool box has been extended to draw on the map line segments, multiple straight lines horizontally and vertically as well as multiple circles, including geodesic lines. The application is demonstrated using localized seismic data from the geographic region of Greece as well as other global earthquake data. The application also offers regional segmentation (NxN) which allows the studying earthquake clustering, and earthquake cluster shift within the segments in space. The platform offers many filters such for plotting selected magnitude ranges or time periods. The plotting facility allows statistically based plots such as cumulative earthquake magnitude plots and earthquake magnitude histograms, calculation of 'b' etc. What is novel for the platform is the additional deterministic tools. Using the newly developed horizontal and vertical line and circle tools we have studied the spatial distribution trends of many earthquakes and we here show for the first time the link between Fibonacci Numbers and spatiotemporal location of some earthquakes. The new tools are valuable for examining visualizing trends in earthquake research as it allows calculation of statistics as well as deterministic precursors. We plan to show many new results based on our newly developed platform.

  6. Natural selection for earlier male arrival to breeding grounds through direct and indirect effects in a migratory songbird

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velmala, William; Helle, Samuli; Ahola, Markus P.; Klaassen, M.R.J.; Lehikoinen, Esa; Rainio, Kalle; Sirkia, Paivi M.; Laaksonen, Toni

    2015-01-01

    For migratory birds, the earlier arrival of males to breeding grounds is often expected to have fitness benefits. However, the selection differential on male arrival time has rarely been decomposed into the direct effect of male arrival and potential indirect effects through female traits. We

  7. Constraints on Subduction Zone Processes from Low Frequency Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostock, M. G.

    2015-12-01

    The discovery of tectonic tremor and constituent low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) offers seismologists new opportunities to study both deformational processes and structure within the subduction zone forearc. This assertion is especially true for northern Cascadia where i) regular seismicity is sparse, and ii) a relatively transparent overriding plate inflicts minimal distortion upon direct P and S wave arrivals from LFEs. Despite low signal-to-noise ratios, LFEs are highly repetitive and signal can be enhanced through construction of stacked templates. Studies in both Cascadia and Nankai reveal an association between LFE hypocenters and a high Vp/Vs, low-velocity zone (LVZ) that is inferred to represent overpressured upper oceanic crust. Scattered signals within Vancouver Island templates, interpreted to originate at boundaries of the LVZ, place LFEs within the LVZ and suggest that this structure may define a distributed (several km) zone of deformation. A recent analysis of LFE magnitudes indicates that LFEs exhibit scaling relations distinct from both regular earthquakes and longer period (10's of seconds to days) phenomena associated with slow slip. Regular earthquakes generally obey a scaling of moment proportional to duration cubed consistent with self similarity, whereas long period slow slip phenomena exhibit a linear scaling between moment and duration that can be accommodated through constant slip or constant stress drop models. In contrast, LFE durations are nearly constant suggesting that moment is governed by slip alone and that asperity size remains approximately constant. The implied dimensions (~1 km2), the persistance of LFEs in time and their stationarity in space point to structural heterogeneity, perhaps related to pockets of upper oceanic crust impervious to hydrothermal circulation, as a fundamental control.

  8. Computing angle of arrival of radio signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borchardt, John J.; Steele, David K.

    2017-11-07

    Various technologies pertaining to computing angle of arrival of radio signals are described. A system that is configured for computing the angle of arrival of a radio signal includes a cylindrical sheath wrapped around a cylindrical object, where the cylindrical sheath acts as a ground plane. The system further includes a plurality of antennas that are positioned about an exterior surface of the cylindrical sheath, and receivers respectively coupled to the antennas. The receivers output measurements pertaining to the radio signal. A processing circuit receives the measurements and computes the angle of arrival of the radio signal based upon the measurements.

  9. Nonlinear time-domain soil–structure interaction analysis of embedded reactor structures subjected to earthquake loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solberg, Jerome M., E-mail: solberg2@llnl.gov [Methods Development Group, Lawrence Livermore Nat’l Lab, P.O. Box 808, Mailstop L-125, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Hossain, Quazi, E-mail: hossain1@llnl.gov [Structural and Applied Mechanics Group, Lawrence Livermore Nat’l Lab, P.O. Box 808, Mailstop L-129, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States); Mseis, George, E-mail: george.mseis@gmail.com [Structural and Applied Mechanics Group, Lawrence Livermore Nat’l Lab, P.O. Box 808, Mailstop L-129, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Highlights: • Derived modified version of Bielak’s SSI method for nonlinear time-domain analysis. • Utilized a Ramberg–Osgood material with parameters that can be fit to EPRI data. • Matched vertically propagating shear wave results from CARES. • Applied this technique to a representative SMR, compared well with SASSI. • The technique is extensible to other material models and nonlinear effects. - Abstract: A generalized time-domain method for soil–structure interaction analysis is developed, based upon an extension of the work of the domain reduction method of Bielak et al. The methodology is combined with the use of a simple hysteretic soil model based upon the Ramberg–Osgood formulation and applied to a notional Small Modular Reactor. These benchmark results compare well (with some caveats) with those obtained by using the industry-standard frequency-domain code SASSI. The methodology provides a path forward for investigation of other sources of nonlinearity, including those associated with the use of more physically-realistic material models incorporating pore-pressure effects, gap opening/closing, the effect of nonlinear structural elements, and 3D seismic inputs.

  10. Earthquake Hazard Analysis Methods: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, A. M.; Fakhrurrozi, A.

    2018-02-01

    One of natural disasters that have significantly impacted on risks and damage is an earthquake. World countries such as China, Japan, and Indonesia are countries located on the active movement of continental plates with more frequent earthquake occurrence compared to other countries. Several methods of earthquake hazard analysis have been done, for example by analyzing seismic zone and earthquake hazard micro-zonation, by using Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (N-DSHA) method, and by using Remote Sensing. In its application, it is necessary to review the effectiveness of each technique in advance. Considering the efficiency of time and the accuracy of data, remote sensing is used as a reference to the assess earthquake hazard accurately and quickly as it only takes a limited time required in the right decision-making shortly after the disaster. Exposed areas and possibly vulnerable areas due to earthquake hazards can be easily analyzed using remote sensing. Technological developments in remote sensing such as GeoEye-1 provide added value and excellence in the use of remote sensing as one of the methods in the assessment of earthquake risk and damage. Furthermore, the use of this technique is expected to be considered in designing policies for disaster management in particular and can reduce the risk of natural disasters such as earthquakes in Indonesia.

  11. Toward an Earthquake Early Warning System in Israel - Implementing ElarmS for the Israeli Seismic Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nof, R. N.; Allen, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    Israel is located adjacent to the Dead Sea Transform (DST) capable of producing earthquakes with maximal magnitudes of M7.5-M7.8 and a recurrence time for a M6 and M7 earthquake on the order of 100 and 1000 years, respectively. The most recent destructive earthquake along the DST was the 1927 ML 6.2 earthquake near Jericho, leading to 285 deaths and ~1000 injured across the area. The Israeli government is now building an Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS). The prime objective of this research is to implement and validate the ElarmS EEWS for the Israeli Seismological Network (ISN). Based on seismic rates along the DST, earthquakes with M>4.5 and M>5.0 are expected to occur every 5yr and 15yr, respectively. Thus, it is essential to use historical data to evaluate ElarmS in addition to analyzing the real-time performance of the system in Israel with smaller magnitude earthquakes. We analyze the system in real-time between April 2015 and July 2015, and analyze the results of replaying historical data from 39 events (Md>3.0) between January 2012 and May 2015. Historical playback results show near complete detection of all events. However, ElarmS has a mean underestimation of magnitudes by 1 magnitude order using the magnitude scaling relation developed for California. We find that using a previously determined independent magnitude estimation equation developed for Israel (Sadeh et al., 2014) remove this magnitude offset. Using the adjusted magnitude estimation equation, the real time performance of the system shows a good agreement with catalog magnitudes. The real-time implementation of ElarmS in Israel is performing well. It issued a warning for the June 27, 2015 M5.5 Nueba earthquake. However, the alert was on 0.6 sec before the arrival of the S-wave at the nearest city of Eilat ~100 km from the epicenter. This was due to the significant latencies (2-4 sec) and long data packets (up to 10 sec) that exist for the ISN which has still to be optimized for EEWS.

  12. Earthquakes: hydrogeochemical precursors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.

  13. Earthquake Damage - General

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — An earthquake is the motion or trembling of the ground produced by sudden displacement of rock in the Earth's crust. Earthquakes result from crustal strain,...

  14. Earthquakes in Southern California

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — There have been many earthquake occurrences in Southern California. This set of slides shows earthquake damage from the following events: Imperial Valley, 1979,...

  15. Earthquake Notification Service

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) is a free service that sends you automated notifications to your email or cell phone when earthquakes happen.

  16. Measuring ground deformations caused by 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal earthquake using high-rate GPS data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Huang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The April 25, 2015 Mw7.8 Nepal earthquake was successfully recorded by Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC and Nepal Geodetic Array (NGA. We processed the high-rate GPS data (1 Hz and 5 Hz by using relative kinematic positioning and derived dynamic ground motions caused by this large earthquake. The dynamic displacements time series clearly indicated the displacement amplitude of each station was related to the rupture directivity. The stations which located in the direction of rupture propagation had larger displacement amplitudes than others. Also dynamic ground displacement exceeding 5 cm was detected by the GPS station that was 2000 km away from the epicenter. Permanent coseismic displacements were resolved from the near-field high-rate GPS stations with wavelet decomposition-reconstruction method and P-wave arrivals were also detected with S transform method. The results of this study can be used for earthquake rupture process and Earthquake Early Warning studies.

  17. Two parallel finite queues with simultaneous services and Markovian arrivals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Chakravarthy

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a finite capacity single server queueing model with two buffers, A and B, of sizes K and N respectively. Messages arrive one at a time according to a Markovian arrival process. Messages that arrive at buffer A are of a different type from the messages that arrive at buffer B. Messages are processed according to the following rules: 1. When buffer A(B has a message and buffer B(A is empty, then one message from A(B is processed by the server. 2. When both buffers, A and B, have messages, then two messages, one from A and one from B, are processed simultaneously by the server. The service times are assumed to be exponentially distributed with parameters that may depend on the type of service. This queueing model is studied as a Markov process with a large state space and efficient algorithmic procedures for computing various system performance measures are given. Some numerical examples are discussed.

  18. Computational methods in earthquake engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Plevris, Vagelis; Lagaros, Nikos

    2017-01-01

    This is the third book in a series on Computational Methods in Earthquake Engineering. The purpose of this volume is to bring together the scientific communities of Computational Mechanics and Structural Dynamics, offering a wide coverage of timely issues on contemporary Earthquake Engineering. This volume will facilitate the exchange of ideas in topics of mutual interest and can serve as a platform for establishing links between research groups with complementary activities. The computational aspects are emphasized in order to address difficult engineering problems of great social and economic importance. .

  19. Historical earthquake investigations in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Makropoulos

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The active tectonics of the area of Greece and its seismic activity have always been present in the country?s history. Many researchers, tempted to work on Greek historical earthquakes, have realized that this is a task not easily fulfilled. The existing catalogues of strong historical earthquakes are useful tools to perform general SHA studies. However, a variety of supporting datasets, non-uniformly distributed in space and time, need to be further investigated. In the present paper, a review of historical earthquake studies in Greece is attempted. The seismic history of the country is divided into four main periods. In each one of them, characteristic examples, studies and approaches are presented.

  20. Redefining Earthquakes and the Earthquake Machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubenthal, Michael; Braile, Larry; Taber, John

    2008-01-01

    The Earthquake Machine (EML), a mechanical model of stick-slip fault systems, can increase student engagement and facilitate opportunities to participate in the scientific process. This article introduces the EML model and an activity that challenges ninth-grade students' misconceptions about earthquakes. The activity emphasizes the role of models…

  1. Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simsek, Canan Lacin

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

  2. Conceptualizing ¬the Abstractions of Earthquakes Through an Instructional Sequence Using SeisMac and the Rapid Earthquake Viewer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taber, J.; Hubenthal, M.; Wysession, M.

    2007-12-01

    because they have a physical sense of what the wiggles indicate. As a result students are better positioned to identify S and P arrivals within the complexity of real data available through REV rather than using the canned or artificial data normally associated with a location exercise. REV provides easy access to recent and noteworthy earthquake data via a simple Web interface. Earthquake locations and near-real time ground motion data are accessed via the IRIS Data Management System, and data are automatically processed and selected so that only events with "good" data are presented within REV. Once students have completed the learning sequence using SeisMac, they will be better able to relate the trace of a seismogram to the physical motion of the ground. This can then lead to better understanding of more advanced exercises including detecting the core and finding the Moho. Building on an understanding of the basics of a seismogram, SeisMac can next be used to help student further understand earthquakes by provide a kinesthetic experience to model how hard the Earth shakes during earthquakes. Through another guided exploration students discover that the SeisMac display is calibrated in units of acceleration and can be related to the Modified Mercalli scale. They then compare shaking during an earthquake via video clips and ground shaking maps from the USGS "Did you feel it" Web site to the shaking of personal objects and the laptop.

  3. Automatic analysis of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake aftershock sequence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baillard, C.; Lyon-Caen, H.; Bollinger, L.; Rietbrock, A.; Letort, J.; Adhikari, L. B.

    2016-12-01

    The Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, that partially ruptured the Main Himalayan Thrust North of Kathmandu on the 25th April 2015, was the largest and most catastrophic earthquake striking Nepal since the great M8.4 1934 earthquake. This mainshock was followed by multiple aftershocks, among them, two notable events that occurred on the 12th May with magnitudes of 7.3 Mw and 6.3 Mw. Due to these recent events it became essential for the authorities and for the scientific community to better evaluate the seismic risk in the region through a detailed analysis of the earthquake catalog, amongst others, the spatio-temporal distribution of the Gorkha aftershock sequence. Here we complement this first study by doing a microseismic study using seismic data coming from the eastern part of the Nepalese Seismological Center network associated to one broadband station in Everest. Our primary goal is to deliver an accurate catalog of the aftershock sequence. Due to the exceptional number of events detected we performed an automatic picking/locating procedure which can be splitted in 4 steps: 1) Coarse picking of the onsets using a classical STA/LTA picker, 2) phase association of picked onsets to detect and declare seismic events, 3) Kurtosis pick refinement around theoretical arrival times to increase picking and location accuracy and, 4) local magnitude calculation based amplitude of waveforms. This procedure is time efficient ( 1 sec/event), reduces considerably the location uncertainties ( 2 to 5 km errors) and increases the number of events detected compared to manual processing. Indeed, the automatic detection rate is 10 times higher than the manual detection rate. By comparing to the USGS catalog we were able to give a new attenuation law to compute local magnitudes in the region. A detailed analysis of the seismicity shows a clear migration toward the east of the region and a sudden decrease of seismicity 100 km east of Kathmandu which may reveal the presence of a tectonic

  4. The hidden simplicity of subduction megathrust earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, M.-A.; Ampuero, J. P.; Heaton, T. H.

    2017-09-01

    The largest observed earthquakes occur on subduction interfaces and frequently cause widespread damage and loss of life. Understanding the rupture behavior of megathrust events is crucial for earthquake rupture physics, as well as for earthquake early-warning systems. However, the large variability in behavior between individual events seemingly defies a description with a simple unifying model. Here we use three source time function (STF) data sets for subduction zone earthquakes, with moment magnitude Mw ≥ 7, and show that such large ruptures share a typical universal behavior. The median STF is scalable between events with different sizes, grows linearly, and is nearly triangular. The deviations from the median behavior are multiplicative and Gaussian—that is, they are proportionally larger for larger events. Our observations suggest that earthquake magnitudes cannot be predicted from the characteristics of rupture onsets.

  5. The California Earthquake Advisory Plan: A history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roeloffs, Evelyn A.; Goltz, James D.

    2017-01-01

    Since 1985, the California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) has issued advisory statements to local jurisdictions and the public following seismic activity that scientists on the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council view as indicating elevated probability of a larger earthquake in the same area during the next several days. These advisory statements are motivated by statistical studies showing that about 5% of moderate earthquakes in California are followed by larger events within a 10-km, five-day space-time window (Jones, 1985; Agnew and Jones, 1991; Reasenberg and Jones, 1994). Cal OES issued four earthquake advisories from 1985 to 1989. In October, 1990, the California Earthquake Advisory Plan formalized this practice, and six Cal OES Advisories have been issued since then. This article describes that protocol’s scientific basis and evolution.

  6. Iterative direction-of-arrival estimation with wideband chirp signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Genyuan; Xia, Xiang-Gen; Chen, Victor C.

    1999-11-01

    Amin et. al. recently developed a time-frequency MUSIC algorithm with narrow band models for the estimation of direction of arrival (DOA) when the source signals are chirps. In this research, we consider wideband models. The joint time-frequency analysis is first used to estimate the chirp rates of the source signals and then the DOA is estimated by the MUSIC algorithm with an iterative approach.

  7. New geological perspectives on earthquake recurrence models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwartz, D.P. [Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States)

    1997-02-01

    In most areas of the world the record of historical seismicity is too short or uncertain to accurately characterize the future distribution of earthquakes of different sizes in time and space. Most faults have not ruptured once, let alone repeatedly. Ultimately, the ability to correctly forecast the magnitude, location, and probability of future earthquakes depends on how well one can quantify the past behavior of earthquake sources. Paleoseismological trenching of active faults, historical surface ruptures, liquefaction features, and shaking-induced ground deformation structures provides fundamental information on the past behavior of earthquake sources. These studies quantify (a) the timing of individual past earthquakes and fault slip rates, which lead to estimates of recurrence intervals and the development of recurrence models and (b) the amount of displacement during individual events, which allows estimates of the sizes of past earthquakes on a fault. When timing and slip per event are combined with information on fault zone geometry and structure, models that define individual rupture segments can be developed. Paleoseismicity data, in the form of timing and size of past events, provide a window into the driving mechanism of the earthquake engine--the cycle of stress build-up and release.

  8. The ShakeAlert: Generating real-time predicted shaking map based on the attenuation relationship of peak ground acceleration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, B. M.; Wu, Y. M.

    2016-12-01

    The feasibility of the Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) based on the low-cost P-alert seismic network in Taiwan has been proved by a few earthquake events since 2010. This dense network can produce detailed shaking maps and identify direction of source rupture in near real-time. By an advanced approach, with the real-time acceleration data and the time-dependent attenuation relationship of peak ground acceleration (PGA), the predicted PGA value can immediately be computed before the observed PGA arrival, that can provide sufficient time for hazard assessment and emergency response, comparing with the conventional shaking map. Here, we use the term "ShakeAlert" which can predict real-time shaking map when an event occurs. The perfomance of ShakeAlert was explored by the moderate-to-large inland earthquake (ML > 5.5) records. For example, result of Meinong earthquake occurred on 2nd February 2016, it can provide the stable report and alert shaking map at 16 seconds after the earthquake occurred. The reporting time of new system with considering the PGA saturation condition, the possible maximum PGA of an event, can be down to 8 seconds after the earthquake occurred. In contrast to traditional methods, the ShakeAlert technique can quickly identify possible damage region, providing the valuable warning information for hazard mitigation.

  9. Future of Earthquake Early Warning: Quantifying Uncertainty and Making Fast Automated Decisions for Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Stephen

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications. Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake. To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that

  10. Earthquake and Tsunami booklet based on two Indonesia earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Y.; Aci, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many destructive earthquakes occurred during the last decade in Indonesia. These experiences are very important precepts for the world people who live in earthquake and tsunami countries. We are collecting the testimonies of tsunami survivors to clarify successful evacuation process and to make clear the characteristic physical behaviors of tsunami near coast. We research 2 tsunami events, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2010 Mentawai slow earthquake tsunami. Many video and photographs were taken by people at some places in 2004 Indian ocean tsunami disaster; nevertheless these were few restricted points. We didn't know the tsunami behavior in another place. In this study, we tried to collect extensive information about tsunami behavior not only in many places but also wide time range after the strong shake. In Mentawai case, the earthquake occurred in night, so there are no impressive photos. To collect detail information about evacuation process from tsunamis, we contrived the interview method. This method contains making pictures of tsunami experience from the scene of victims' stories. In 2004 Aceh case, all survivors didn't know tsunami phenomena. Because there were no big earthquakes with tsunami for one hundred years in Sumatra region, public people had no knowledge about tsunami. This situation was highly improved in 2010 Mentawai case. TV programs and NGO or governmental public education programs about tsunami evacuation are widespread in Indonesia. Many people know about fundamental knowledge of earthquake and tsunami disasters. We made drill book based on victim's stories and painted impressive scene of 2 events. We used the drill book in disaster education event in school committee of west Java. About 80 % students and teachers evaluated that the contents of the drill book are useful for correct understanding.

  11. Impact of the Christchurch earthquakes on hospital staff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tovaranonte, Pleayo; Cawood, Tom J

    2013-06-01

    On September 4, 2010 a major earthquake caused widespread damage, but no loss of life, to Christchurch city and surrounding areas. There were numerous aftershocks, including on February 22, 2011 which, in contrast, caused substantial loss of life and major damage to the city. The research aim was to assess how these two earthquakes affected the staff in the General Medicine Department at Christchurch Hospital. Problem To date there have been no published data assessing the impact of this type of natural disaster on hospital staff in Australasia. A questionnaire that examined seven domains (demographics, personal impact, psychological impact, emotional impact, impact on care for patients, work impact, and coping strategies) was handed out to General Medicine staff and students nine days after the September 2010 earthquake and 14 days after the February 2011 earthquake. Response rates were ≥ 99%. Sixty percent of responders were earthquakes, respectively. A fifth to a third of people had to find an alternative route of transport to get to work but only eight percent to 18% took time off work. Financial impact was more severe following the February earthquake, with 46% reporting damage of >NZ $1,000, compared with 15% following the September earthquake (P earthquake than the September earthquake (42% vs 69%, P earthquake but this rose to 53% after the February earthquake (12/53 vs 45/85, P earthquake but this dropped significantly to 15% following the February earthquake (27/53 vs 13/62, P earthquakes upon General Medicine hospital staff. The effect was widespread with minor financial impact during the first but much more during the second earthquake. Moderate psychological impact was experienced in both earthquakes. This data may be useful to help prepare plans for future natural disasters. .

  12. Earthquake rate and magnitude distributions of great earthquakes for use in global forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2016-07-01

    We have obtained new results in the statistical analysis of global earthquake catalogues with special attention to the largest earthquakes, and we examined the statistical behaviour of earthquake rate variations. These results can serve as an input for updating our recent earthquake forecast, known as the `Global Earthquake Activity Rate 1' model (GEAR1), which is based on past earthquakes and geodetic strain rates. The GEAR1 forecast is expressed as the rate density of all earthquakes above magnitude 5.8 within 70 km of sea level everywhere on earth at 0.1 × 0.1 degree resolution, and it is currently being tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability. The seismic component of the present model is based on a smoothed version of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogue from 1977 through 2013. The tectonic component is based on the Global Strain Rate Map, a `General Earthquake Model' (GEM) product. The forecast was optimized to fit the GCMT data from 2005 through 2012, but it also fit well the earthquake locations from 1918 to 1976 reported in the International Seismological Centre-Global Earthquake Model (ISC-GEM) global catalogue of instrumental and pre-instrumental magnitude determinations. We have improved the recent forecast by optimizing the treatment of larger magnitudes and including a longer duration (1918-2011) ISC-GEM catalogue of large earthquakes to estimate smoothed seismicity. We revised our estimates of upper magnitude limits, described as corner magnitudes, based on the massive earthquakes since 2004 and the seismic moment conservation principle. The new corner magnitude estimates are somewhat larger than but consistent with our previous estimates. For major subduction zones we find the best estimates of corner magnitude to be in the range 8.9 to 9.6 and consistent with a uniform average of 9.35. Statistical estimates tend to grow with time as larger earthquakes occur. However, by using the moment conservation

  13. Seismic anisotropy evidence for dehydration embrittlement triggering intermediate-depth earthquakes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jian; Zhao, Dapeng; Yao, Zhenxing

    2017-06-01

    It has been proposed that dehydration embrittlement of hydrous materials can trigger intermediate-depth earthquakes and form a double seismic zone in a subducting slab. Seismic anisotropy may provide a possible insight into intermediate-depth intraslab seismicity, because anisotropic properties of minerals change with varying water distribution, temperature and pressure. Here we present a high-resolution model of P-wave radial anisotropy tomography of the Japan subduction zone down to ~400 km depth, which is obtained using a large number of arrival-time data of local earthquakes and teleseismic events. Our results reveal a close correlation between the pattern of intermediate-depth seismicity and anisotropic structures. The seismicity occurs in portions of the Pacific and Philippine Sea slabs where positive radial anisotropy (i.e., horizontal velocity being faster than vertical one) dominates due to dehydration, whereas the inferred anhydrous parts of the slabs are found to be aseismic where negative radial anisotropy (i.e., vertical velocity being faster than horizontal one) dominates. Our anisotropic results suggest that intermediate-depth earthquakes in Japan could be triggered by dehydration embrittlement of hydrous minerals in the subducting slabs.

  14. Tomography of the subducting Pacific slab and the 2015 Bonin deepest earthquake (Mw 7.9).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Dapeng; Fujisawa, Moeto; Toyokuni, Genti

    2017-03-15

    On 30 May 2015 an isolated deep earthquake (~670 km, Mw 7.9) occurred to the west of the Bonin Islands. To clarify its causal mechanism and its relationship to the subducting Pacific slab, we determined a detailed P-wave tomography of the deep earthquake source zone using a large number of arrival-time data. Our results show that this large deep event occurred within the subducting Pacific slab which is penetrating into the lower mantle. In the Izu-Bonin region, the Pacific slab is split at ~28° north latitude, i.e., slightly north of the 2015 deep event hypocenter. In the north the slab becomes stagnant in the mantle transition zone, whereas in the south the slab is directly penetrating into the lower mantle. This deep earthquake was caused by joint effects of several factors, including the Pacific slab's fast deep subduction, slab tearing, slab thermal variation, stress changes and phase transformations in the slab, and complex interactions between the slab and the ambient mantle.

  15. Analysis on the Impact of Pop-Up Flight Occurrence when Extending the Arrival Management Horizon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ellerbroek, J.; Hoekstra, J.M.; Westerveld, E

    2017-01-01

    The occurrence of pop-up flights negatively affects the (extended) arrival manager. This issue is known already for a long time by operational experts, but the extent thereof has now been assessed during experiments. An arrival manager research model was developed and integrated in BlueSky, an

  16. Phase difference of arrival geolocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, John J.; Romero, Louis (

    2017-05-16

    Geolocation is performed by receiving, at a plurality of non-earthbound platforms each moving in a known manner within a spatial coordinate system, a radio frequency (RF) signal transmitted from a transmitter at an unknown location on earth within the spatial coordinate system. For each of the platforms, a phase change of the received frequency carrier is measured over the same duration of time. The measured phase changes are combined to determine the transmitter location.

  17. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  18. Does pet arrival trigger prosocial behaviors in individuals with autism?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marine Grandgeorge

    Full Text Available Alteration of social interactions especially prosocial behaviors--an important aspect of development--is one of the characteristics of autistic disorders. Numerous strategies or therapies are used to improve communication skills or at least to reduce social impairments. Animal-assisted therapies are used widely but their relevant benefits have never been scientifically evaluated. In the present study, we evaluated the association between the presence or the arrival of pets in families with an individual with autism and the changes in his or her prosocial behaviors. Of 260 individuals with autism--on the basis of presence or absence of pets--two groups of 12 individuals and two groups of 8 individuals were assigned to: study 1 (pet arrival after age of 5 versus no pet and study 2 (pet versus no pet, respectively. Evaluation of social impairment was assessed at two time periods using the 36-items ADI-R algorithm and a parental questionnaire about their child-pet relationships. The results showed that 2 of the 36 items changed positively between the age of 4 to 5 (t(0 and time of assessment (t(1 in the pet