WorldWideScience

Sample records for early cumulative risk

  1. Early Educational Intervention, Early Cumulative Risk, and the Early Home Environment as Predictors of Young Adult Outcomes within a High-Risk Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pungello, Elizabeth P.; Kainz, Kirsten; Burchinal, Margaret; Wasik, Barbara H.; Sparling, Joseph J.; Ramey, Craig T.; Campbell, Frances A.

    2010-01-01

    The extent to which early educational intervention, early cumulative risk, and the early home environment were associated with young adult outcomes was investigated in a sample of 139 young adults (age 21) from high-risk families enrolled in randomized trials of early intervention. Positive effects of treatment were found for education attainment,…

  2. Early cumulative risk predicts externalizing behavior at age 10: The mediating role of adverse parenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gach, Emily J; Ip, Ka I; Sameroff, Arnold J; Olson, Sheryl L

    2018-02-01

    Multiple environmental risk factors in early childhood predict a broad range of adverse developmental outcomes. However, most prior longitudinal research has not illuminated explanatory mechanisms. Our main goals were to examine predictive associations between cumulative ecological risk factors in early childhood and children's later externalizing problems and to determine whether these associations were explained by variations in parenting quality. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) at risk for school-age conduct problems and their parents and teachers. Children were approximately 3 years old at Time 1 (T1) and 10 years old at Time 2 (T2). Reports of contextual risk at T1 were used to develop a cumulative risk index consisting of 6 singular risk variables from 3 ecological levels: social resources (low income; social isolation), family resources (marital aggression; poor total family functioning), and maternal resources (single parent status; poor maternal mental health). At T1, parenting variables were measured (corporal punishment, warm responsiveness, maternal efficacy, and negative perceptions of child behavior). At T2, mothers, fathers, and teachers reported child externalizing problems. Johnson's relative weight analysis revealed that the cumulative risk index was a more powerful predictor of age 10 years externalizing behavior than any of the singular contextual risk variables. Adverse parenting mediated the effects of cumulative risk on later child externalizing problems. Our findings have significant implications for understanding long-term effects of multiple contextual risk factors present in early childhood and for the implementation of positive parenting interventions early on. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Cumulative Risk and Continuity in Nonparental Care from Infancy to Early Adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colwell, Malinda J; Pettit, Gregory S; Meece, Darrell; Bates, John E; Dodge, Kenneth A

    2001-04-01

    Variations in amounts of nonparental care across infancy, preschool, early elementary school, and early adolescence were examined in a longitudinal sample (N = 438). Of interest was (a) continuity in use of the different arrangements, (b) whether the arrangements were additively and cumulatively associated with children's externalizing behavior problems, and (c) whether predictive relations were accounted for by social-ecological (socioeconomic status, mothers' employment status, marital status) and social-experiential (parenting quality, exposure to aggressive peers) factors. Correlations among overall amounts of care provided little evidence of cross-time continuity. Consistent with the cumulative risk perspective, Grade 1 self-care and Grade 6 unsupervised peer contact incrementally predicted Grade 6 externalizing problems. Most of the predictive associations were accounted for by family background and social relationship factors.

  4. Genetic moderation of multiple pathways linking early cumulative socioeconomic adversity and young adults' cardiometabolic disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickrama, Kandauda A S; Lee, Tae Kyoung; O'Neal, Catherine Walker

    2018-02-01

    Recent research suggests that psychosocial resources and life stressors are mediating pathways explaining socioeconomic variation in young adults' health risks. However, less research has examined both these pathways simultaneously and their genetic moderation. A nationally representative sample of 11,030 respondents with prospective data collected over 13 years from the National Study of Adolescent to Adult Health was examined. First, the association between early cumulative socioeconomic adversity and young adults' (ages 25-34) cardiometabolic disease risk, as measured by 10 biomarkers, through psychosocial resources (educational attainment) and life stressors (accelerated transition to adulthood) was examined. Second, moderation of these pathways by the serotonin transporter linked polymorphic region gene (5-HTTLPR) was examined. There was evidence for the association between early socioeconomic adversity and young adults' cardiometabolic disease risk directly and indirectly through educational attainment and accelerated transitions. These direct and mediating pathways were amplified by the 5-HTTLPR polymorphism. These findings elucidate how early adversity can have an enduring influence on young adults' cardiometabolic disease risk directly and indirectly through psychosocial resources and life stressors and their genetic moderation. This information suggests that effective intervention and prevention programs should focus on early adversity, youth educational attainment, and their transition to young adulthood.

  5. Low Fruit/Vegetable Consumption in the Home: Cumulative Risk Factors in Early Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Wendy L.; Swindle, Taren M.; Kyzer, Angela L.; Whiteside-Mansell, Leanne

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative risk theory suggests that a variety of social risk factors would have an additive effect on obesity risk. Multiple studies have suggested that obesity is related to basic resources such as transportation and financial resources. Additional research points to parental engagement and parental monitoring as additional sources of risk. This…

  6. Cumulative Risk and Continuity in Nonparental Care from Infancy to Early Adolescence

    OpenAIRE

    Colwell, Malinda J.; Pettit, Gregory S.; Meece, Darrell; Bates, John E.; Dodge, Kenneth A.

    2001-01-01

    Variations in amounts of nonparental care across infancy, preschool, early elementary school, and early adolescence were examined in a longitudinal sample (N = 438). Of interest was (a) continuity in use of the different arrangements, (b) whether the arrangements were additively and cumulatively associated with children’s externalizing behavior problems, and (c) whether predictive relations were accounted for by social-ecological (socioeconomic status, mothers’ employment status, marital stat...

  7. A cumulative risk factor model for early identification of academic difficulties in premature and low birth weight infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, G; Bellinger, D; McCormick, M C

    2007-03-01

    Premature and low birth weight children have a high prevalence of academic difficulties. This study examines a model comprised of cumulative risk factors that allows early identification of these difficulties. This is a secondary analysis of data from a large cohort of premature (mathematics. Potential predictor variables were categorized into 4 domains: sociodemographic, neonatal, maternal mental health and early childhood (ages 3 and 5). Regression analysis was used to create a model to predict reading and mathematics scores. Variables from all domains were significant in the model, predicting low achievement scores in reading (R (2) of 0.49, model p-value mathematics (R (2) of 0.44, model p-value intelligence, visual-motor skill and higher behavioral disturbance scores (early childhood). Lower mathematics scores were predicted by lower maternal education, income and age and Black or Hispanic race (sociodemographic); lower birth weight and higher head circumference (neonatal); lower maternal responsivity (maternal mental health); lower intelligence, visual-motor skill and higher behavioral disturbance scores (early childhood). Sequential early childhood risk factors in premature and LBW children lead to a cumulative risk for academic difficulties and can be used for early identification.

  8. Cumulative risk, cumulative outcome: a 20-year longitudinal study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie Atkinson

    Full Text Available Cumulative risk (CR models provide some of the most robust findings in the developmental literature, predicting numerous and varied outcomes. Typically, however, these outcomes are predicted one at a time, across different samples, using concurrent designs, longitudinal designs of short duration, or retrospective designs. We predicted that a single CR index, applied within a single sample, would prospectively predict diverse outcomes, i.e., depression, intelligence, school dropout, arrest, smoking, and physical disease from childhood to adulthood. Further, we predicted that number of risk factors would predict number of adverse outcomes (cumulative outcome; CO. We also predicted that early CR (assessed at age 5/6 explains variance in CO above and beyond that explained by subsequent risk (assessed at ages 12/13 and 19/20. The sample consisted of 284 individuals, 48% of whom were diagnosed with a speech/language disorder. Cumulative risk, assessed at 5/6-, 12/13-, and 19/20-years-old, predicted aforementioned outcomes at age 25/26 in every instance. Furthermore, number of risk factors was positively associated with number of negative outcomes. Finally, early risk accounted for variance beyond that explained by later risk in the prediction of CO. We discuss these findings in terms of five criteria posed by these data, positing a "mediated net of adversity" model, suggesting that CR may increase some central integrative factor, simultaneously augmenting risk across cognitive, quality of life, psychiatric and physical health outcomes.

  9. Cumulative environmental risk in substance abusing women: early intervention, parenting stress, child abuse potential and child development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Prasanna; Schuler, Maureen E; Black, Maureen M; Kettinger, Laurie; Harrington, Donna

    2003-09-01

    To assess the relationship between cumulative environmental risks and early intervention, parenting attitudes, potential for child abuse and child development in substance abusing mothers. We studied 161 substance-abusing women, from a randomized longitudinal study of a home based early intervention, who had custody of their children through 18 months. The intervention group received weekly home visits in the first 6 months and biweekly visits from 6 to 18 months. Parenting stress and child abuse potential were assessed at 6 and 18 months postpartum. Children's mental and motor development (Bayley MDI and PDI) and language development (REEL) were assessed at 6, 12, and 18 months postpartum. Ten maternal risk factors were assessed: maternal depression, domestic violence, nondomestic violence, family size, incarceration, no significant other in home, negative life events, psychiatric problems, homelessness, and severity of drug use. Level of risk was recoded into four categories (2 or less, 3, 4, and 5 or more), which had adequate cell sizes for repeated measures analysis. Repeated measures analyses were run to examine how level of risk and group (intervention or control) were related to parenting stress, child abuse potential, and children's mental, motor and language development over time. Parenting stress and child abuse potential were higher for women with five risks or more compared with women who had four or fewer risks; children's mental, motor, and language development were not related to level of risk. Children in the intervention group had significantly higher scores on the PDI at 6 and 18 months (107.4 vs. 103.6 and 101.1 vs. 97.2) and had marginally better scores on the MDI at 6 and 12 months (107.7 vs. 104.2 and 103.6 vs. 100.1), compared to the control group. Compared to drug-abusing women with fewer than five risks, women with five or more risks found parenting more stressful and indicated greater inclination towards abusive and neglectful behavior

  10. Serious, Minor, and Non-Delinquents in Early Adolescence: The Impact of Cumulative Risk and Promotive Factors. The TRAILS Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Laan, Andre M.; Veenstra, Rene; Bogaerts, Stefan; Verhulst, Frank C.; Ormel, Johan

    2010-01-01

    This study uses a social-ecological approach to the development of delinquency. The authors emphasize that a balance between eliminating risk and enhancing protection across domains is essential in reducing problems and promoting competence. The cumulative risk and promotive effects of temperament, family and school factors in preadolescence were…

  11. Serious, Minor, and Non-Delinquents in Early Adolescence : The Impact of Cumulative Risk and Promotive Factors. The TRAILS Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Laan, A.M.; Veenstra, R.; Bogaerts, S.; Verhulst, F.C.; Ormel, J.

    This study uses a social-ecological approach to the development of delinquency. The authors emphasize that a balance between eliminating risk and enhancing protection across domains is essential in reducing problems and promoting competence. The cumulative risk and promotive effects of temperament,

  12. Serious, minor, and non-delinquents in early adolescence: The impact of cumulative risk and promotive factors. The TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.M. van der Laan (André); R. Veenstra (René); S. Bogaerts (Stefan); F.C. Verhulst (Frank); J. Ormel (Johan Hans)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis study uses a social-ecological approach to the development of delinquency. The authors emphasize that a balance between eliminating risk and enhancing protection across domains is essential in reducing problems and promoting competence. The cumulative risk and promotive effects of

  13. Perspectives on cumulative risks and impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faust, John B

    2010-01-01

    Cumulative risks and impacts have taken on different meanings in different regulatory and programmatic contexts at federal and state government levels. Traditional risk assessment methodologies, with considerable limitations, can provide a framework for the evaluation of cumulative risks from chemicals. Under an environmental justice program in California, cumulative impacts are defined to include exposures, public health effects, or environmental effects in a geographic area from the emission or discharge of environmental pollution from all sources, through all media. Furthermore, the evaluation of these effects should take into account sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors where possible and to the extent data are available. Key aspects to this potential approach include the consideration of exposures (versus risk), socioeconomic factors, the geographic or community-level assessment scale, and the inclusion of not only health effects but also environmental effects as contributors to impact. Assessments of this type extend the boundaries of the types of information that toxicologists generally provide for risk management decisions.

  14. Childhood Cumulative Risk and Later Allostatic Load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doan, Stacey N; Dich, Nadya; Evans, Gary W

    2014-01-01

    State, followed for 8 years (between the ages 9 and 17). Poverty- related stress was computed using the cumulative risk approach, assessing stressors across 9 domains, including environmental, psychosocial, and demographic factors. Allostatic load captured a range of physiological responses, including......Objective: The present study investigated the long-term impact of exposure to poverty-related stressors during childhood on allostatic load, an index of physiological dysregulation, and the potential mediating role of substance use. Method: Participants (n = 162) were rural children from New York...... cardiovascular, hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis, sympathetic adrenal medullary system, and metabolic activity. Smoking and alcohol/drug use were tested as mediators of the hypothesized childhood risk-adolescent allostatic load relationship. Results: Cumulative risk exposure at age 9 predicted increases...

  15. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

  16. EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

  17. Children neglected: Where cumulative risk theory fails.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Mandy; Legano, Lori; Homel, Peter; Walker-Descartes, Ingrid; Rojas, Mary; Laraque, Danielle

    2015-07-01

    Neglected children, by far the majority of children maltreated, experience an environment most deficient in cognitive stimulation and language exchange. When physical abuse co-occurs with neglect, there is more stimulation through negative parent-child interaction, which may lead to better cognitive outcomes, contrary to Cumulative Risk Theory. The purpose of the current study was to assess whether children only neglected perform worse on cognitive tasks than children neglected and physically abused. Utilizing LONGSCAN archived data, 271 children only neglected and 101 children neglected and physically abused in the first four years of life were compared. The two groups were assessed at age 6 on the WPPSI-R vocabulary and block design subtests, correlates of cognitive intelligence. Regression analyses were performed, controlling for additional predictors of poor cognitive outcome, including socioeconomic variables and caregiver depression. Children only neglected scored significantly worse than children neglected and abused on the WPPSI-R vocabulary subtest (p=0.03). The groups did not differ on the block design subtest (p=0.4). This study shows that for neglected children, additional abuse may not additively accumulate risk when considering intelligence outcomes. Children experiencing only neglect may need to be referred for services that address cognitive development, with emphasis on the linguistic environment, in order to best support the developmental challenges of neglected children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  19. Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Olazarán, J.; Trincado, R.; Bermejo-Pareja, F.

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD), with control of vascular factors (VFs). Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES) study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (n...

  20. Pesticide Cumulative Risk Assessment: Framework for Screening Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides guidance on how to screen groups of pesticides for cumulative evaluation using a two-step approach: begin with evaluation of available toxicological information and, if necessary, follow up with a risk-based screening approach.

  1. Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Olazarán

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD, with control of vascular factors (VFs. Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (nD, past depression (pD, present depression (prD, and present and past depression (prpD. Logistic regression was used. Results. Data of 1,807 subjects were investigated at baseline (mean age 74.3, 59.3% women, and 1,376 (81.6% subjects were evaluated after three years. The prevalence of dementia at baseline was 6.7%, and dementia incidence was 6.3%. An effect of depression was observed on dementia prevalence (OR [CI 95%] 1.84 [1.01–3.35] for prD and 2.73 [1.08–6.87] for prpD, and on dementia due to AD (OR 1.98 [0.98–3.99] for prD and OR 3.98 [1.48–10.71] for prpD (fully adjusted models, nD as reference. Depression did not influence dementia incidence. Conclusions. Present depression and, particularly, present and past depression are associated with dementia at old age. Multiple mechanisms, including toxic effect of depression on hippocampal neurons, plausibly explain these associations.

  2. Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

    2018-06-01

    Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Cumulative Risks of Foster Care Placement for Danish Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    children. Our results also show some variations by parental ethnicity and sex, but these differences are small. Indeed, they appear quite muted relative to racial/ethnic differences in these risks in the United States. Last, though cumulative risks are similar between Danish and American children...

  4. Feeding and smoking habits as cumulative risk factors for early childhood caries in toddlers, after adjustment for several behavioral determinants: a retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majorana, Alessandra; Cagetti, Maria Grazia; Bardellini, Elena; Amadori, Francesca; Conti, Giulio; Strohmenger, Laura; Campus, Guglielmo

    2014-02-15

    Several maternal health determinants during the first period of life of the child, as feeding practice, smoking habit and socio-economic level, are involved in early childhood health problems, as caries development. The potential associations among early childhood caries, feeding practices, maternal and environmental smoking exposure, Socio-Economic Status (SES) and several behavioral determinants were investigated. Italian toddlers (n = 2395) aged 24-30 months were recruited and information on feeding practices, sweet dietary habit, maternal smoking habit, SES, and fluoride supplementation in the first year of life was obtained throughout a questionnaire administered to mothers. Caries lesions in toddlers were identified in visual/tactile examinations and classified using the International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS). Associations between toddlers' caries data and mothers' questionnaire data were assessed using chi-squared test. Ordinal logistic regression was used to analyze associations among caries severity level (ICDAS score), behavioral factors and SES (using mean housing price per square meter as a proxy). Caries prevalence and severity levels were significantly lower in toddlers who were exclusively breastfed and those who received mixed feeding with a moderate-high breast milk component, compared with toddlers who received low mixed feeding and those exclusively fed with formula (p smoked five or more cigarettes/day during pregnancy showed a higher caries severity level (p smoke. Environmental exposure to smoke during the first year of life was also significantly associated with caries severity (odds ratio =7.14, 95% confidence interval = 6.07-7.28). No association was observed between caries severity level and fluoride supplementation. More than 50% of toddlers belonging to families with a low SES, showed moderate or high severity caries levels (p smoke during pregnancy living in area with a low mean housing price per square meter.

  5. Childhood Psychosocial Cumulative Risks and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in Adulthood: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakulinen, Christian; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Elovainio, Marko; Kubzansky, Laura D.; Jokela, Markus; Hintsanen, Mirka; Juonala, Markus; Kivimäki, Mika; Josefsson, Kim; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa; Raitakari, Olli T

    2015-01-01

    Objective Adverse experiences in childhood may influence cardiovascular risk in adulthood. We examined the prospective associations between types of psychosocial adversity as well as having multiple adversities (e.g., cumulative risk) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and its progression among young adults. Higher cumulative risk score in childhood was expected to be associated with higher IMT and its progression. Methods Participants were 2265 men and women (age range: 24-39 years in 2001) from the on-going Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study whose carotid IMT were measured in 2001 and 2007. A cumulative psychosocial risk score, assessed at the study baseline in 1980, was derived from four separate aspects of the childhood environment that may impose risk (childhood stressful life-events, parental health behavior family, socioeconomic status, and childhood emotional environment). Results The cumulative risk score was associated with higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.001; padulthood, including adulthood health behavior, adulthood socioeconomic status and depressive symptoms. Among the individual childhood psychosocial risk categories, having more stressful life-events was associated with higher IMT in 2001 (b=.007; se=.003; p=.016) and poorer parental health behavior predicted higher IMT in 2007 (b=.004; se=.002; p=.031) after adjustment for age, sex and childhood cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions Early life psychosocial environment influences cardiovascular risk later in life and considering cumulative childhood risk factors may be more informative than individual factors in predicting progression of preclinical atherosclerosis in adulthood. PMID:26809108

  6. Cumulative Risk Disparities in Children's Neurocognitive Functioning: A Developmental Cascade Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Mark; Browne, Dillon T.; Plamondon, Andre; Daniel, Ella; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    The current longitudinal study examined the role of cumulative social risk on children's theory of mind (ToM) and executive functioning (EF) across early development. Further, we also tested a cascade model of development in which children's social cognition at 18 months was hypothesized to predict ToM and EF at age 4.5 through intermediary…

  7. Parenting intervention and the caregiving environment : cumulative risk and process evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stolk, Mirjam Neeltje

    2007-01-01

    The objective of the research described in this thesis was to study single and cumulative family risk in relation to early childhood externalizing problems and the effectiveness of a parenting intervention program. The Video-feedback Intervention to promote Positive Parenting and Sensitive

  8. Associations between parenting, media use, cumulative risk, and children’s executive functioning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linebarger, D.L.; Barr, R.; Lapierre, M.A.; Piotrowski, J.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: This study was designed to examine how parenting style, media exposure, and cumulative risk were associated with executive functioning (EF) during early childhood. Methods: A nationally representative group of US parents/caregivers (N = 1156) with 1 child between 2 and 8 years

  9. Childhood cumulative risk and obesity: the mediating role of self-regulatory ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gary W; Fuller-Rowell, Thomas E; Doan, Stacey N

    2012-01-01

    We tested whether early childhood risk exposures are related to weight gain in adolescence and evaluate an underlying mechanism, self-regulatory behavior, for the risk-obesity link. Cumulative risk exposure to 9 sociodemographic (eg, poverty), physical (eg, substandard housing), and psychosocial (eg, family turmoil) stressors was assessed in 244 nine-year-old children. BMI was calculated at age 9 and then 4 years later. At age 9, children's ability to delay gratification as an index of self-regulatory behavior was assessed. Path analyses were then estimated to evaluate our mediational model (Cumulative risk → Self-regulation → BMI) over a 4-year period in a prospective, longitudinal design. Nine-year-old children exposed to a greater accumulation of multiple risk factors show larger gains in adiposity over the next four year period, net of their initial BMI. These gains in BMI during early adolescence are largely accounted for by deteriorated self-regulatory abilities among children facing more cumulative risks. Early childhood risk exposure leads to larger gains in BMI in adolescence. Given the importance of childhood adiposity to the development of obesity later in life, understanding the underlying mechanisms that link early experience to weight gain is an essential task. Deficiencies in self-regulation in response to chronic stress appears to be an important agent in the obesity epidemic.

  10. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  11. An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

  12. An analysis of cumulative risks based on biomonitoring data for six phthalates using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...

  13. Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

    2016-08-01

    Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Cumulative risk exposure moderates the association between parasympathetic reactivity and inhibitory control in preschool-age children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliano, Ryan J; Roos, Leslie E; Farrar, Jessica D; Skowron, Elizabeth A

    2018-04-01

    A child's cumulative risk for early exposure to stress has been linked to alterations of self-regulation outcomes, including neurobiological correlates of inhibitory control (IC). We examined whether children's ability to engage the parasympathetic nervous system impacts how risk affects IC. Children ages 3-5 years completed two laboratory measures of IC while respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) was measured, indexing parasympathetic activity. Children with greater risk demonstrated lower IC; risk also moderated associations between RSA reactivity and IC. For children with less risk, greater RSA withdrawal during IC tasks was associated with better IC. In contrast, greater risk was associated with poor IC, regardless of RSA withdrawal. Effects of risk were more pronounced for cumulative than individual measures. Results suggest that cumulative risk exposure disrupts connectivity between physiological and behavioral components of self-regulation in early childhood. Parasympathetic withdrawal to cognitive tasks may be less relevant for performance in developmental samples experiencing greater life stress. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. The proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Frank; Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    We suggest an estimator for the proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks data. The key advantage of this model is that the regression parameters have the simple and useful odds ratio interpretation. The model has been considered by many authors, but it is rarely used...... in practice due to the lack of reliable estimation procedures. We suggest such procedures and show that their performance improve considerably on existing methods. We also suggest a goodness-of-fit test for the proportional odds assumption. We derive the large sample properties and provide estimators...

  16. 78 FR 25440 - Request for Information and Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    ... Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment AGENCY: Office of the Science Advisor, Environmental... influence exposures, dose-response or risk/hazard posed by environmental contaminant exposures, and methods... who wish to receive further information about submitting information on methods for cumulative risk...

  17. Cumulative Risk and Adolescent's Internalizing and Externalizing Problems: The Mediating Roles of Maternal Responsiveness and Self-Regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doan, Stacey N.; Fuller-Rowell, Thomas E.; Evans, Gary W.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine longitudinal associations among maternal responsiveness, self-regulation, and behavioral adjustment in adolescents. The authors used structural equation modeling to test a model that demonstrates that the effects of early cumulative risk on behavioral problems is mediated by maternal responsiveness…

  18. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  19. Mapping cumulative environmental risks: examples from the EU NoMiracle project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pistocchi, A.; Groenwold, J.; Lahr, J.; Loos, M.; Mujica, M.; Ragas, A.M.J.; Rallo, R.; Sala, S.; Schlink, U.; Strebel, K.; Vighi, M.; Vizcaino, P.

    2011-01-01

    We present examples of cumulative chemical risk mapping methods developed within the NoMiracle project. The different examples illustrate the application of the concentration addition (CA) approach to pesticides at different scale, the integration in space of cumulative risks to individual organisms

  20. A Review of Non-Chemical Stressors and Their Importance in Cumulative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumulative exposure/risk assessments need to include non-chemical stressors as well as human activities and chemical data. Multiple stressor research can offer information on the interactions between chemical and non-chemical stressors needed for cumulative risk assessment resea...

  1. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  2. An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory for Decision under Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Chateauneuf, A.

    1999-01-01

    Cumulative prospect theory was introduced by Tversky and Kahneman so as to combine the empirical realism of their original prospect theory with the theoretical advantages of Quiggin's rank-dependent utility. Preference axiomatizations were provided in several papers. All those axiomatizations,

  3. Family Resources and Effects on Child Behavior Problem Interventions: A Cumulative Risk Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tømmerås, Truls; Kjøbli, John

    2017-01-01

    Family resources have been associated with health care inequality in general and with social gradients in treatment outcomes for children with behavior problems. However, there is limited evidence concerning cumulative risk-the accumulation of social and economic disadvantages in a family-and whether cumulative risk moderates the outcomes of evidence-based parent training interventions. We used data from two randomized controlled trials evaluating high-intensity ( n  = 137) and low-intensity ( n  = 216) versions of Parent Management Training-Oregon (PMTO) with a 50:50 allocation between participants receiving PMTO interventions or regular care. A nine-item family cumulative risk index tapping socioeconomic resources and parental health was constructed to assess the family's exposure to risk. Autoregressive structured equation models (SEM) were run to investigate whether cumulative risk moderated child behaviors at post-treatment and follow-up (6 months). Our results showed opposite social gradients for the treatment conditions: the children exposed to cumulative risk in a pooled sample of both PMTO groups displayed lower levels of behavior problems, whereas children with identical risk exposures who received regular care experienced more problems. Furthermore, our results indicated that the social gradients differed between PMTO interventions: children exposed to cumulative risk in the low-intensity (five sessions) Brief Parent Training fared equally well as their high-resource counterparts, whereas children exposed to cumulative risk in the high-intensity PMTO (12 sessions) experienced vastly better treatment effects. Providing evidence-based parent training seem to be an effective way to counteract health care inequality, and the more intensive PMTO treatment seemed to be a particularly effective way to help families with cumulative risk.

  4. 76 FR 69726 - Pyrethrins/Pyrethroid Cumulative Risk Assessment; Notice of Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-09

    ... exposure to multiple chemicals that have a common mechanism of toxicity when making regulatory decisions... stakeholders including environmental, human health, farm worker, and agricultural advocates; the chemical... Cumulative Risk Assessment; Notice of Availability AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION...

  5. Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

    2014-05-21

    Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

  6. Cumulative Risk of Bovine Mastitis Treatments in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden

    OpenAIRE

    Valde, JP; Lawson, LG; Lindberg, A; Agger, JF; Saloniemi, H; Østerås, O

    2004-01-01

    Data from the national dairy cow recording systems during 1997 were used to calculate lactation-specific cumulative risk of mastitis treatments and cumulative risk of removal from the herds in Denmark, Finland Norway and Sweden. Sweden had the lowest risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation and Norway had the highest risk. The incidence risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden was 0.177, 0.139, 0.215 and...

  7. Association of Cumulative Childhood Adversity and Adolescent Violent Offending With Suicide in Early Adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björkenstam, Emma; Hjern, Anders; Björkenstam, Charlotte; Kosidou, Kyriaki

    2018-02-01

    Childhood adversity (CA) is associated with an increased risk of suicide in young adulthood that might be explained by maladaptive trajectories during adolescence. Although adolescent violent offending is linked with suicide, little is known about its role in the association between CA and suicide. To examine whether adolescent violent offending mediates the association between CA and suicide in early adulthood. This population-based, longitudinal cohort study with a follow-up time spanning 5 to 9 years included 476 103 individuals born in Sweden between 1984 and 1988. The study population was prospectively followed up from 20 years of age until December 31, 2013, with respect to suicide. Data analysis was performed from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2013. Register-based CAs included parental death, parental substance abuse and psychiatric disorder, parental criminal offending, parental separation, public assistance recipiency, child welfare intervention, and residential instability. Adolescent violent offending was defined as being convicted of a violent crime between the ages of 15 and 19 years. Estimates of risk of suicide after 20 years of age (from 2004 if born in 1984 and from 2008 if born in 1988) until the end of 2013 were calculated as incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% CIs using Poisson regression analysis. Adjustments were made for demographics and psychiatric disorder. In addition, binary mediation analysis with logistic regression was used. A total of 476 103 individuals (231 699 [48.7%] female) were included in the study. Those with a conviction for violent offending had been exposed to all CAs to a greater extent than those with no violent offending. Cumulative CA was associated with risk of suicide in nonconvicted (adjusted IRR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.5-3.9) and convicted youths, who had a higher risk of suicide (adjusted IRR, 8.5; 95% CI, 4.6-15.7). Adolescent violent offending partly mediated the association between CA and suicide. Individuals

  8. Family cumulative risk and at-risk kindergarteners' social competence: the mediating role of parent representations of the attachment relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, Lauren A; Trentacosta, Christopher J; Owusu, Erika; McLear, Caitlin; Smith-Darden, Joanne

    2018-08-01

    Secure attachment relationships have been linked to social competence in at-risk children. In the current study, we examined the role of parent secure base scripts in predicting at-risk kindergarteners' social competence. Parent representations of secure attachment were hypothesized to mediate the relationship between lower family cumulative risk and children's social competence. Participants included 106 kindergarteners and their primary caregivers recruited from three urban charter schools serving low-income families as a part of a longitudinal study. Lower levels of cumulative risk predicted greater secure attachment representations in parents, and scores on the secure base script assessment predicted children's social competence. An indirect relationship between lower cumulative risk and kindergarteners' social competence via parent secure base script scores was also supported. Parent script-based representations of the attachment relationship appear to be an important link between lower levels of cumulative risk and low-income kindergarteners' social competence. Implications of these findings for future interventions are discussed.

  9. Language Delay in Severely Neglected Children: A Cumulative or Specific Effect of Risk Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylvestre, Audette; Merette, Chantal

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: This research sought to determine if the language delay (LD) of severely neglected children under 3 years old was better explained by a cumulative risk model or by the specificity of risk factors. The objective was also to identify the risk factors with the strongest impact on LD among various biological, psychological, and…

  10. The EPA's human exposure research program for assessing cumulative risk in communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-06-01

    Communities are faced with challenges in identifying and prioritizing environmental issues, taking actions to reduce their exposures, and determining their effectiveness for reducing human health risks. Additional challenges include determining what scientific tools are available and most relevant, and understanding how to use those tools; given these barriers, community groups tend to rely more on risk perception than science. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and collaborators are developing and applying tools (models, data, methods) for enhancing cumulative risk assessments. The NERL's "Cumulative Communities Research Program" focuses on key science questions: (1) How to systematically identify and prioritize key chemical stressors within a given community?; (2) How to develop estimates of exposure to multiple stressors for individuals in epidemiologic studies?; and (3) What tools can be used to assess community-level distributions of exposures for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of risk reduction strategies? This paper provides community partners and scientific researchers with an understanding of the NERL research program and other efforts to address cumulative community risks; and key research needs and opportunities. Some initial findings include the following: (1) Many useful tools exist for components of risk assessment, but need to be developed collaboratively with end users and made more comprehensive and user-friendly for practical application; (2) Tools for quantifying cumulative risks and impact of community risk reduction activities are also needed; (3) More data are needed to assess community- and individual-level exposures, and to link exposure-related information with health effects; and (4) Additional research is needed to incorporate risk-modifying factors ("non-chemical stressors") into cumulative risk assessments. The products of this

  11. Cumulative Human Impacts on Coral Reefs: Assessing Risk and Management Implications for Brazilian Coral Reefs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael A. Magris

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Effective management of coral reefs requires strategies tailored to cope with cumulative disturbances from human activities. In Brazil, where coral reefs are a priority for conservation, intensifying threats from local and global stressors are of paramount concern to management agencies. Using a cumulative impact assessment approach, our goal was to inform management actions for coral reefs in Brazil by assessing their exposure to multiple stressors (fishing, land-based activities, coastal development, mining, aquaculture, shipping, and global warming. We calculated an index of the risk to cumulative impacts: (i assuming uniform sensitivity of coral reefs to stressors; and (ii using impact weights to reflect varying tolerance levels of coral reefs to each stressor. We also predicted the index in both the presence and absence of global warming. We found that 16% and 37% of coral reefs had high to very high risk of cumulative impacts, without and with information on sensitivity respectively, and 42% of reefs had low risk to cumulative impacts from both local and global stressors. Our outputs are the first comprehensive spatial dataset of cumulative impact on coral reefs in Brazil, and show that areas requiring attention mostly corresponded to those closer to population centres. We demonstrate how the relationships between risks from local and global stressors can be used to derive strategic management actions.

  12. Cumulative Mass and NIOSH Variable Lifting Index Method for Risk Assessment: Possible Relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stucchi, Giulia; Battevi, Natale; Pandolfi, Monica; Galinotti, Luca; Iodice, Simona; Favero, Chiara

    2018-02-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to explore whether the Variable Lifting Index (VLI) can be corrected for cumulative mass and thus test its efficacy in predicting the risk of low-back pain (LBP). Background A validation study of the VLI method was published in this journal reporting promising results. Although several studies highlighted a positive correlation between cumulative load and LBP, cumulative mass has never been considered in any of the studies investigating the relationship between manual material handling and LBP. Method Both VLI and cumulative mass were calculated for 2,374 exposed subjects using a systematic approach. Due to high variability of cumulative mass values, a stratification within VLI categories was employed. Dummy variables (1-4) were assigned to each class and used as a multiplier factor for the VLI, resulting in a new index (VLI_CMM). Data on LBP were collected by occupational physicians at the study sites. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of acute LBP within levels of risk exposure when compared with a control group formed by 1,028 unexposed subjects. Results Data showed greatly variable values of cumulative mass across all VLI classes. The potential effect of cumulative mass on damage emerged as not significant ( p value = .6526). Conclusion When comparing VLI_CMM with raw VLI, the former failed to prove itself as a better predictor of LBP risk. Application To recognize cumulative mass as a modifier, especially for lumbar degenerative spine diseases, authors of future studies should investigate potential association between the VLI and other damage variables.

  13. Comparison of cumulative false-positive risk of screening mammography in the United States and Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Katja Kemp

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: In the United States (US), about one-half of women screened with annual mammography have at least one false-positive test after ten screens. The estimate for European women screened ten times biennially is much lower. We evaluate to what extent screening interval, mammogram type......=400,204), between 1991-2012 and 1993-2013, respectively. Model-based cumulative false-positive risks were computed for the entire sample, using two statistical methods (Hubbard Njor) previously used to estimate false-positive risks in the US and Europe. RESULTS: Empirical cumulative risk of at least...... one false-positive test after eight (annual or biennial) screens was 41.9% in BCSC, 16.1% in Copenhagen, and 7.4% in Funen. Variation in screening interval and mammogram type did not explain the differences by country. Using the Hubbard method, the model-based cumulative risks after eight screens...

  14. Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Anne Kirstine; Nielsen, Elsa

    2008-01-01

    A cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz in combination has been carried out using an Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IPRA) model. In the model, variability in both exposure and sensitivity between individuals were combined...

  15. Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Müller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; van der Voet, H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three

  16. Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; Voet, van der H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three

  17. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF CUMULATIVE WATER BALANCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY COMPLICATIONS AFTER MAJOR ABDOMINAL SURGERY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musaeva, T S; Karipidi, M K; Zabolotskikh, I B

    2016-11-01

    a comprehensive assessment of the water balance on the basis of daily, cumulative balance and 10% of the body weight gain and their role in the development of early complications after major abdominal surgery. A retrospective study of the perioperative period in 150 patients who underwent major abdomi- nal surgery was performed. The physical condition of the patients corresponded to ASA 3 class. The average age was 46 (38-62) years. The following stages ofresearch: an analysis of daily balance and cumulative balance in complicated and uncomplicated group and their role in the development of complications; the timing of development ofcomplications and possible relationship with fluid overload and the development of complications; changes in the level of albumin within 10 days of the postoperative period. The analysis of complications didn't show significant differences between complicated and uncomplicated groups according to the water balance during the surgery and by the end of the first day. When constructing the area under the ROC curve (A UROC) low resolution ofthe balance in intraoperative period and the first day and the balance on the second day to predict complications was shown. Significant diferences according to the cumulative balance was observed from the third day of the postoperative period Also with the third day of the postoperative period there is a good resolution for prediction ofpostoperative complications according to the cumulative balance with the cut-offpoint > of 50,7 ml/kg. the excessive infusion therapy is a predictor of adverse outcome in patients after major abdominal surgery. Therefore, after 3 days of postoperative period it is important to maintain mechanisms for the excretion of excess fluid or limitations of infusion therapy.

  18. Weighted cumulative exposure models helped identify an association between early knee-pain consultations and future knee OA diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Dahai; Peat, George; Bedson, John; Edwards, John J; Turkiewicz, Aleksandra; Jordan, Kelvin P

    2016-08-01

    To establish the association between prior knee-pain consultations and early diagnosis of knee osteoarthritis (OA) by weighted cumulative exposure (WCE) models. Data were from an electronic health care record (EHR) database (Consultations in Primary Care Archive). WCE functions for modeling the cumulative effect of time-varying knee-pain consultations weighted by recency were derived as a predictive tool in a population-based case-control sample and validated in a prospective cohort sample. Two WCE functions ([i] weighting of the importance of past consultations determined a priori; [ii] flexible spline-based estimation) were comprehensively compared with two simpler models ([iii] time since most recent consultation; total number of past consultations) on model goodness of fit, discrimination, and calibration both in derivation and validation phases. People with the most recent and most frequent knee-pain consultations were more likely to have high WCE scores that were associated with increased risk of knee OA diagnosis both in derivation and validation phases. Better model goodness of fit, discrimination, and calibration were observed for flexible spline-based WCE models. WCE functions can be used to model prediagnostic symptoms within routine EHR data and provide novel low-cost predictive tools contributing to early diagnosis. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Cumulative keyboard strokes: a possible risk factor for carpal tunnel syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleftheriou Andreas

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Contradictory reports have been published regarding the association of Carpal Tunnel Syndrome (CTS and the use of computer keyboard. Previous studies did not take into account the cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes among computer workers. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between cumulative keyboard use (keyboard strokes and CTS. Methods Employees (461 from a Governmental data entry & processing unit agreed to participate (response rate: 84.1 % in a cross-sectional study. Α questionnaire was distributed to the participants to obtain information on socio-demographics and risk factors for CTS. The participants were examined for signs and symptoms related to CTS and were asked if they had previous history or surgery for CTS. The cumulative amount of the keyboard strokes per worker per year was calculated by the use of payroll’s registry. Two case definitions for CTS were used. The first included subjects with personal history/surgery for CTS while the second included subjects that belonged to the first case definition plus those participants were identified through clinical examination. Results Multivariate analysis used for both case definitions, indicated that those employees with high cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes were at increased risk of CTS (case definition A: OR = 2.23;95 % CI = 1.09-4.52 and case definition B: OR = 2.41; 95%CI = 1.36-4.25. A dose response pattern between cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes and CTS has been revealed (p  Conclusions The present study indicated a possible association between cumulative exposure to keyboard strokes and development of CTS. Cumulative exposure to key-board strokes would be taken into account as an exposure indicator regarding exposure assessment of computer workers. Further research is needed in order to test the results of the current study and assess causality between cumulative keyboard strokes and

  20. Oral contraceptive use and impact of cumulative intake of estrogen and progestin on risk of ovarian cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, M T; Jensen, A; Frederiksen, K

    2013-01-01

    Oral contraceptive use decreases the risk of ovarian cancer, but no previous studies have assessed the impact of cumulative intake of estrogen and progestin on ovarian cancer risk.......Oral contraceptive use decreases the risk of ovarian cancer, but no previous studies have assessed the impact of cumulative intake of estrogen and progestin on ovarian cancer risk....

  1. Cumulative childhood risk and adult functioning in abused and neglected children grown up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horan, Jacqueline M; Widom, Cathy Spatz

    2015-08-01

    This paper examines the relationship between childhood exposure to cumulative risk and three indicators of psychosocial adjustment in adulthood (educational attainment, mental health, and criminal behavior) and tests three different models (linear, quadratic, and interaction). Data were collected over several time points from individuals who were part of a prospective cohort design study that matched children with documented cases of abuse and/or neglect with children without such histories and followed them into adulthood. Hierarchical multiple regressions compared linear and quadratic models and then examined potential moderating effects of child abuse/neglect and gender. Exposure to a greater number of childhood risk factors was significantly related to fewer years of education, more anxiety and depression symptomatology, and more criminal arrests in adulthood. The relationship between cumulative risk and years of education demonstrated a curvilinear pattern, whereas the relationship between cumulative risk and both mental health and criminal arrests was linear. Child abuse/neglect did not moderate these relationships, although there were direct effects for both child abuse/neglect and gender on criminal arrests, with more arrests for abused/neglected individuals than controls and more for males than females. Gender interacted with cumulative risk to impact educational attainment and criminal behavior, suggesting that interventions may be more effective if tailored differently for males and females. Interventions may need to be multifaceted and designed to address these different domains of functioning.

  2. Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniyama, Yukari; Katanoda, Kota; Charvat, Hadrien; Hori, Megumi; Ohno, Yuko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2017-11-01

    To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category. Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method. The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively. Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  3. Observed Sensitivity during Family Interactions and Cumulative Risk: A Study of Multiple Dyads per Family

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Dillon T.; Leckie, George; Prime, Heather; Perlman, Michal; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    The present study sought to investigate the family, individual, and dyad-specific contributions to observed cognitive sensitivity during family interactions. Moreover, the influence of cumulative risk on sensitivity at the aforementioned levels of the family was examined. Mothers and 2 children per family were observed interacting in a round robin…

  4. Dietary cumulative acute risk assessment of organophosphorus, carbamates and pyrethroids insecticides for the Brazilian population.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jardim, Andreia Nunes Oliveira; Brito, Alessandra Page; van Donkersgoed, Gerda; Boon, Polly E; Caldas, Eloisa Dutra

    Cumulative acute dietary risk assessments of organophosphorus (OPs), carbamates (CBs) and pyrethroids (PYs) were conducted for the Brazilian population. Residue data for 30786 samples of 30 foods were obtained from two national monitoring programs and one University laboratory, and consumption data

  5. Nonparametric Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Functions for Competing Risks Data with Missing Cause of Failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Effraimidis, Georgios; Dahl, Christian Møller

    In this paper, we develop a fully nonparametric approach for the estimation of the cumulative incidence function with Missing At Random right-censored competing risks data. We obtain results on the pointwise asymptotic normality as well as the uniform convergence rate of the proposed nonparametric...

  6. Effects of Cumulative Family Risk Factors on American Students' Academic Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunst, Carl J.; Hamby, Deborah W.

    2016-01-01

    The relationships between cumulative family risk factors and American students' academic performance were examined in all 50 States and the District of Columbia. Data from the 2007 "American Community Survey" were used to ascertain the percent of birth to 18 year old children in the United States who experienced three or more risk…

  7. Optimization of the cumulative risk assessment of pesticides and biocides using computational techniques: Pilot project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Svava Osk; Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Petersen, Annette

    This pilot project is intended as the first step in developing a computational strategy to assist in refining methods for higher tier cumulative and aggregate risk assessment of exposure to mixture of pesticides and biocides. For this purpose, physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models were...

  8. The Role of Cumulative Risk Assessment in Decisions about Environmental Justice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken Sexton

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There is strong presumptive evidence that people living in poverty and certain racial and ethnic groups bear a disproportionate burden of environmental health risk. Many have argued that conducting formal assessments of the health risk experienced by affected communities is both unnecessary and counterproductive—that instead of analyzing the situation our efforts should be devoted to fixing obvious problems and rectifying observable wrongs. We contend that formal assessment of cumulative health risks from combined effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors is a valuable tool to aid decision makers in choosing risk management options that are effective, efficient, and equitable. If used properly, cumulative risk assessment need not impair decision makers’ discretion, nor should it be used as an excuse for doing nothing in the face of evident harm. Good policy decisions require more than good intentions; they necessitate analysis of risk-related information along with careful consideration of economic issues, ethical and moral principles, legal precedents, political realities, cultural beliefs, societal values, and bureaucratic impediments. Cumulative risk assessment can provide a systematic and impartial means for informing policy decisions about environmental justice.

  9. Cumulative risk assessment of phthalate exposure of Danish children and adolescents using the hazard index approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søeborg, T; Frederiksen, H; Andersson, Anna-Maria

    2012-01-01

    Human risk assessment of chemicals is traditionally presented as the ratio between the actual level of exposure and an acceptable level of exposure, with the acceptable level of exposure most often being estimated by appropriate authorities. This approach is generally sound when assessing the risk...... of individual chemicals. However, several chemicals may concurrently target the same receptor, work through the same mechanism or in other ways induce the same effect(s) in the body. In these cases, cumulative risk assessment should be applied. The present study uses biomonitoring data from 129 Danish children...... and adolescents and resulting estimated daily intakes of four different phthalates. These daily intake estimates are used for a cumulative risk assessment with anti-androgenic effects as the endpoint using Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) values determined by the European Food Safety Authorities (EFSA) or Reference...

  10. Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Anne Kirstine; Bosgra, Sieto; Boon, Polly E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three......) and the fraction of individuals with IMoEs vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz is not likely to be of concern for the reproductive development of their male foetuses. However...

  11. Cumulative risk on the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR) underpins empathic communication difficulties at the first stages of romantic love.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneiderman, Inna; Kanat-Maymon, Yaniv; Ebstein, Richard P; Feldman, Ruth

    2014-10-01

    Empathic communication between couples plays an important role in relationship quality and individual well-being and research has pointed to the role of oxytocin in providing the neurobiological substrate for pair-bonding and empathy. Here, we examined links between genetic variability on the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR) and empathic behaviour at the initiation of romantic love. Allelic variations on five OXTR single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with susceptibility to disorders of social functioning were genotyped in 120 new lovers: OXTRrs13316193, rs2254298, rs1042778, rs2268494 and rs2268490. Cumulative genetic risk was computed by summing risk alleles on each SNP. Couples were observed in support-giving interaction and behaviour was coded for empathic communication, including affective congruence, maintaining focus on partner, acknowledging partner's distress, reciprocal exchange and non-verbal empathy. Hierarchical linear modelling indicated that individuals with high OXTR risk exhibited difficulties in empathic communication. OXTR risk predicted empathic difficulties above and beyond the couple level, relationship duration, and anxiety and depressive symptoms. Findings underscore the involvement of oxytocin in empathic behaviour during the early stages of social affiliation, and suggest the utility of cumulative risk and plasticity indices on the OXTR as potential biomarkers for research on disorders of social dysfunction and the neurobiology of empathy. © The Author (2013). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. The cumulative risk of false-positive screening results across screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roman, M., E-mail: Marta.Roman@kreftregisteret.no [Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo (Norway); Department of Women and Children’s Health, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo (Norway); Skaane, P., E-mail: PERSK@ous-hf.no [Department of Radiology, Oslo University Hospital Ullevaal, University of Oslo, Oslo (Norway); Hofvind, S., E-mail: Solveig.Hofvind@kreftregisteret.no [Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo (Norway); Oslo and Akershus University College of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Health Science, Oslo (Norway)

    2014-09-15

    Highlights: • We found variation in early performance measures across screening centres. • Radiologists’ performance may play a key role in the variability. • Potential to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening programs. • Continuous surveillance of screening centres and radiologists is essential. - Abstract: Background: Recall for assessment in mammographic screening entails an inevitable number of false-positive screening results. This study aimed to investigate the variation in the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result and the positive predictive value across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Methods: We studied 618,636 women aged 50–69 years who underwent 2,090,575 screening exams (1996–2010. Recall rate, positive predictive value, rate of screen-detected cancer, and the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result, without and with invasive procedures across the screening centres were calculated. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the probability of a false positive screening result and to compute the cumulative false-positive risk for up to ten biennial screening examinations. Results: The cumulative risk of a false-positive screening exam varied from 10.7% (95% CI: 9.4–12.0%) to 41.5% (95% CI: 34.1–48.9%) across screening centres, with a highest to lowest ratio of 3.9 (95% CI: 3.7–4.0). The highest to lowest ratio for the cumulative risk of undergoing an invasive procedure with a benign outcome was 4.3 (95% CI: 4.0–4.6). The positive predictive value of recall varied between 12.0% (95% CI: 11.0–12.9%) and 19.9% (95% CI: 18.3–21.5%), with a highest to lowest ratio of 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9). Conclusions: A substantial variation in the performance measures across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program was identified, despite of similar administration, procedures, and quality assurance requirements. Differences in the

  13. The cumulative risk of false-positive screening results across screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roman, M.; Skaane, P.; Hofvind, S.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We found variation in early performance measures across screening centres. • Radiologists’ performance may play a key role in the variability. • Potential to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening programs. • Continuous surveillance of screening centres and radiologists is essential. - Abstract: Background: Recall for assessment in mammographic screening entails an inevitable number of false-positive screening results. This study aimed to investigate the variation in the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result and the positive predictive value across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Methods: We studied 618,636 women aged 50–69 years who underwent 2,090,575 screening exams (1996–2010. Recall rate, positive predictive value, rate of screen-detected cancer, and the cumulative risk of a false positive screening result, without and with invasive procedures across the screening centres were calculated. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the probability of a false positive screening result and to compute the cumulative false-positive risk for up to ten biennial screening examinations. Results: The cumulative risk of a false-positive screening exam varied from 10.7% (95% CI: 9.4–12.0%) to 41.5% (95% CI: 34.1–48.9%) across screening centres, with a highest to lowest ratio of 3.9 (95% CI: 3.7–4.0). The highest to lowest ratio for the cumulative risk of undergoing an invasive procedure with a benign outcome was 4.3 (95% CI: 4.0–4.6). The positive predictive value of recall varied between 12.0% (95% CI: 11.0–12.9%) and 19.9% (95% CI: 18.3–21.5%), with a highest to lowest ratio of 1.7 (95% CI: 1.5–1.9). Conclusions: A substantial variation in the performance measures across the screening centres in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program was identified, despite of similar administration, procedures, and quality assurance requirements. Differences in the

  14. Psychotic-spectrum symptoms, cumulative adversity exposure and substance use among high-risk girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansing, Amy E; Plante, Wendy Y; Fennema-Notestine, Christine; Golshan, Shahrokh; Beck, Audrey N

    2018-02-01

    Psychotic-spectrum symptoms are linked to trauma, substance/alcohol use (SAU), criminality/violence and poor functional outcomes, supporting the need for early detection in vulnerable populations. To better understand high-risk girls' mental health, we assessed: (1) psychotic-spectrum symptoms; (2) cumulative trauma, adversity and loss exposures (C-TALE) and adversity-indicators (symptoms, maladaptive coping, stressor-reactivity); and SAU risk-factors; and (3) relationships among psychotic-spectrum symptoms, adversity-indicators and SAU risk-factors. We administered the Structured Clinical Interviews for Psychotic Spectrum, and Trauma and Loss Spectrum to 158 adolescent delinquent girls. Girls' psychotic-spectrum profiles were similar to previously reported adult psychotic patients and characterized by typical symptoms (hallucinations/delusions, reported largely SAU-independent), interpersonal sensitivity, schizoid traits and paranoia (over-interpretation, anger over-reactivity, hypervigilance). Auditory/visual hallucinations (55.7%), delusions (92.4%), ideas of reference (96.8%) and adversity (90.0% ≥10/24 C-TALE-types) were common. Mean loss (4) and trauma (8) onset-age occurred before SAU-onset (12). Significant positive correlations were found among psychotic-spectrum symptoms, stressor-reactivity, C-TALE, adversity-indicators; and number of SAU-types; and a negative correlation occurred between psychotic-spectrum symptoms and earlier alcohol use onset. After controlling for number of SAU-types, stressor-reactivity and adversity-related numbing individually had the largest associations with total psychotic-spectrum symptoms (b = 2.6-4.3). Girls averaged more than 4 maladaptive coping strategies (e.g., 24.8% attempted suicide) in response to adversity, amplifying potential health-disparities. No racial/ethnic differences emerged on psychotic-spectrum symptoms. This symptom constellation during adolescence likely interferes with social and academic

  15. Cumulative risk of bovine mastitis treatments in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valde, J P; Lawson, L G; Lindberg, A; Agger, J F; Saloniemi, H; Osterås, O

    2004-01-01

    Data from the national dairy cow recording systems during 1997 were used to calculate lactation-specific cumulative risk of mastitis treatments and cumulative risk of removal from the herds in Denmark, Finland Norway and Sweden. Sweden had the lowest risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation and Norway had the highest risk. The incidence risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden was 0.177, 0.139, 0.215 and 0.127 for first parity cows and 0.228, 0.215, 0.358 and 0.204 for parities higher than three, respectively. The risk of a first parity cow being treated for mastitis was almost 3 times higher at calving in Norway than in Sweden. The period with the highest risk for mastitis treatments was from 2 days before calving until 14 days after calving and the highest risk for removal was from calving to 10 days after calving in all countries. The study clearly demonstrated differences in bovine mastitis treatment patterns among the Nordic countries. The most important findings were the differences in treatment risks during different lactations within each country, as well as differences in strategies with respect to the time during lactation mastitis was treated.

  16. Cumulative Risk of Bovine Mastitis Treatments in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saloniemi H

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Data from the national dairy cow recording systems during 1997 were used to calculate lactation-specific cumulative risk of mastitis treatments and cumulative risk of removal from the herds in Denmark, Finland Norway and Sweden. Sweden had the lowest risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation and Norway had the highest risk. The incidence risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden was 0.177, 0.139, 0.215 and 0.127 for first parity cows and 0.228, 0.215, 0.358 and 0.204 for parities higher than three, respectively. The risk of a first parity cow being treated for mastitis was almost 3 times higher at calving in Norway than in Sweden. The period with the highest risk for mastitis treatments was from 2 days before calving until 14 days after calving and the highest risk for removal was from calving to 10 days after calving in all countries. The study clearly demonstrated differences in bovine mastitis treatment patterns among the Nordic countries. The most important findings were the differences in treatment risks during different lactations within each country, as well as differences in strategies with respect to the time during lactation mastitis was treated.

  17. The MCRA model for probabilistic single-compound and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Voet, Hilko; de Boer, Waldo J; Kruisselbrink, Johannes W; Goedhart, Paul W; van der Heijden, Gerie W A M; Kennedy, Marc C; Boon, Polly E; van Klaveren, Jacob D

    2015-05-01

    Pesticide risk assessment is hampered by worst-case assumptions leading to overly pessimistic assessments. On the other hand, cumulative health effects of similar pesticides are often not taken into account. This paper describes models and a web-based software system developed in the European research project ACROPOLIS. The models are appropriate for both acute and chronic exposure assessments of single compounds and of multiple compounds in cumulative assessment groups. The software system MCRA (Monte Carlo Risk Assessment) is available for stakeholders in pesticide risk assessment at mcra.rivm.nl. We describe the MCRA implementation of the methods as advised in the 2012 EFSA Guidance on probabilistic modelling, as well as more refined methods developed in the ACROPOLIS project. The emphasis is on cumulative assessments. Two approaches, sample-based and compound-based, are contrasted. It is shown that additional data on agricultural use of pesticides may give more realistic risk assessments. Examples are given of model and software validation of acute and chronic assessments, using both simulated data and comparisons against the previous release of MCRA and against the standard software DEEM-FCID used by the Environmental Protection Agency in the USA. It is shown that the EFSA Guidance pessimistic model may not always give an appropriate modelling of exposure. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Cumulative childhood risk is associated with a new measure of chronic inflammation in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Line Jee Hartmann; Moffitt, Terrie E; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper; Belsky, Daniel W; Danese, Andrea; Harrington, HonaLee; Houts, Renate M; Poulton, Richie; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Caspi, Avshalom

    2018-05-09

    Childhood risk factors are associated with elevated inflammatory biomarkers in adulthood, but it is unknown whether these risk factors are associated with increased adult levels of the chronic inflammation marker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). We aimed to test the hypothesis that childhood exposure to risk factors for adult disease is associated with elevated suPAR in adulthood and to compare suPAR with the oft-reported inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP). Prospective study of a population-representative 1972-1973 birth cohort; the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed participants to age 38 years. Main childhood predictors were poor health, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), low IQ, and poor self-control. Main adult outcomes were adulthood inflammation measured as suPAR and high-sensitivity CRP (hsCRP). Participants with available plasma samples at age 38 were included (N = 837, 50.5% male). suPAR (mean 2.40 ng/ml; SD 0.91) was positively correlated with hsCRP (r 0.15, p childhood risks were aggregated into a Cumulative Childhood Risk index, and controlling for sex, BMI, and smoking, Cumulative Childhood Risk was associated with higher suPAR (b 0.10; SE 0.03; p = .002). Cumulative Childhood Risk predicted elevated suPAR, after controlling for hsCRP (b 0.18; SE 0.03; p childhood risk factors was associated with higher suPAR levels, independent of CRP. suPAR is a useful addition to studies connecting childhood risk to adult inflammatory burden. © 2018 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  19. Cumulative occupational mechanical exposures during working life and risk of sickness absence and disability pension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundstrup, Emil; Hansen, Åse Marie; Mortensen, Erik Lykke

    2017-01-01

    and Midlife Biobank with a job exposure matrix and a national register containing information on social transfer payment. By coding individual job histories from the Danish version of ISCO-codes (International Standard Classification of Occupations), we calculated cumulative occupational mechanical exposures......-regression analyses estimated the relative risk of register-based long-term sickness absence (LTSA) and disability pension with cumulative occupational mechanical exposures throughout working life. Analyses were censored for competing events and adjusted for multiple confounders. Results: During the follow-up period......, 970 persons (19.3%) had ≥1 episode of LTSA and 85 persons (1.7%) were granted a disability pension. Number of ton-, lifting- and kneeling-years showed an exposure-response association with increased risk of LTSA (P

  20. The impact of physical activity on cumulative cardiovascular disease risk factors among Malaysian adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiah, Rajah; Thangiah, Govindamal; Yusoff, Khalid; Manikam, Rishya; Chandrasekaran, Sankara Kumar; Mustafa, Rujhan; Bakar, Najmin Binti Abu

    2015-12-16

    Numerous studies have shown the importance of physical activity in reducing the morbidity and mortality rates caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, most of these studies emphasise little on the cumulative effect of CVD risk factors. Hence, this study investigates the association between physical exercise and cumulative CVD risk factors among adults in three different age groups. Using a sample of 7276 respondents drawn from community centers, the REDISCOVER team gathered information on physical activity, CVD risk factors (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, tobacco use) and socioeconomic and demographic variables in Malaysia. Because the study required medical examination, a convenience sampling frame was preferred in which all volunteers were included in the study. Fasting blood samples and anthropometric (height, weight and more) measurements were collected by trained staffs. Socio-demographic and physical activity variables were recorded through questionnaires. A Chi-square test was performed to identify the bivariate association between the covariates (socioeconomic variables, demographic variables and physical activity) and outcome variable. The association between the main exposure, physical activity, and the outcome variable, cumulative CVD risk factors, was assessed using an ordinal logistic regression model, controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic influences in three different age groups, 35-49, 50-64 and 65 and above. The mean age of participants is 51.8 (SD = 9.4). Respondents in the age groups of 35-49 (aORmoderate = 0.12; 95 % CI: 0.02 - 0.53 ) and 65 and above (aORhigh = 0.58; 95 % CI: 0.24, 0.78) showed a statistically significant inverse relationship between physical activity and cumulative CVD risk factors. However, this relationship was not significant among respondents in the 50-64 age group suggesting the possible influence of other variables, such as stress and environment. The

  1. Cumulative health risk assessment: integrated approaches for multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, Glenn; Teuschler, Linda; MacDonel, Margaret; Butler, Jim; Finster, Molly; Hertzberg, Rick; Harou, Lynne

    2007-01-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As information about environmental contamination has increased in recent years, so has public interest in the combined effects of multiple contaminants. This interest has been highlighted by recent tragedies such as the World Trade Center disaster and hurricane Katrina. In fact, assessing multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects has long been an issue for contaminated sites, including U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) legacy waste sites. Local citizens have explicitly asked the federal government to account for cumulative risks, with contaminants moving offsite via groundwater flow, surface runoff, and air dispersal being a common emphasis. Multiple exposures range from ingestion and inhalation to dermal absorption and external gamma irradiation. Three types of concerns can lead to cumulative assessments: (1) specific sources or releases - e.g., industrial facilities or accidental discharges; (2) contaminant levels - in environmental media or human tissues; and (3) elevated rates of disease - e.g., asthma or cancer. The specific initiator frames the assessment strategy, including a determination of appropriate models to be used. Approaches are being developed to better integrate a variety of data, extending from environmental to internal co-location of contaminants and combined effects, to support more practical assessments of cumulative health risks. (authors)

  2. Cumulative occupational mechanical exposures during working life and risk of sickness absence and disability pension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundstrup, Emil; Hansen, Åse Marie; Mortensen, Erik Lykke

    2017-01-01

    -regression analyses estimated the relative risk of register-based long-term sickness absence (LTSA) and disability pension with cumulative occupational mechanical exposures throughout working life. Analyses were censored for competing events and adjusted for multiple confounders. Results: During the follow-up period......Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the prospective association of cumulative mechanical exposure during working life with health-related labor market outcomes. Methods: This prospective cohort study combines data from 5076 older workers (age 49-63 years) from the Copenhagen Aging...... from a JEM for ton-years (lifting 1000 kg each day in one year), lifting-years (lifting loads weighing ≥20 kg >10 times each day in one year), kneeling-years (kneeling for one hour each day in one year) and vibration-years (whole-body vibration for one hour each day in one year). Cox...

  3. Psychobiology of cumulative trauma: hair cortisol as a risk marker for stress exposure in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Matthew C; Abelson, James L; Mielock, Alyssa S; Rao, Uma

    2017-07-01

    Childhood trauma (CT) is associated with long-lasting alterations of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and elevated risk for stress exposure in adulthood. Although HPA alterations are present in the early aftermath of trauma, it remains unclear how initial HPA activity is associated with subsequent stress exposure and whether CT exposure influences the strength and direction of this association. The present study examined prospective associations between hair cortisol content (HCC) and stress exposure from baseline to 3-month follow-up in young adult women with recent (i.e. past 3 months) exposure to interpersonal violence (IPV; i.e. physical or sexual assault) and non-traumatized controls. History of significant CT abuse or neglect was determined based on clinical cutoffs for a self-report CT measure: 12 women had abuse or neglect and recent IPV exposure (CT + IPV); 7 women had abuse or neglect but no IPV exposure (CT); 15 women had no history of trauma (NTC). HCC was computed for 3 cm sections reflecting cortisol secretion during the 3 months preceding the baseline assessment. The interaction of cumulative trauma and HCC predicted stress exposure over 3-month follow-up, controlling for baseline stress exposure and depressive symptoms. Simple slopes analyses revealed that lower baseline HCC predicted greater stress exposure in the CT + IPV group compared to the CT group; HCC was not associated with stress exposure in the NTC group. The present findings highlight the potential utility of HCC as a predictor of stress exposure for women with a history of childhood abuse or neglect, particularly in the context of recent IPV. Lay summary Adults with a history of CT show long-lasting alterations in major stress response systems, including the HPA axis. They are also more likely to experience stressful life events in adulthood. However, it is not clear how altered HPA activity influences risk for stress exposure and whether CT affects their

  4. Use of cumulative mortality data in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice: observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrance, R A; Dorsch, M F; Sapsford, R J; Mackintosh, A F; Greenwood, D C; Jackson, B M; Morrell, C; Robinson, M B; Hall, A S

    2001-08-11

    Use of cumulative mortality adjusted for case mix in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice. Observational study. 20 hospitals across the former Yorkshire region. All 2153 consecutive patients with confirmed acute myocardial infarction identified during three months. Variable life-adjusted displays showing cumulative differences between observed and expected mortality of patients; expected mortality calculated from risk model based on admission characteristics of age, heart rate, and systolic blood pressure. The performance of two individual hospitals over three months was examined as an example. One, the smallest district hospital in the region, had a series of 30 consecutive patients but had five more deaths than predicted. The variable life-adjusted display showed minimal variation from that predicted for the first 15 patients followed by a run of unexpectedly high mortality. The second example was the main tertiary referral centre for the region, which admitted 188 consecutive patients. The display showed a period of apparently poor performance followed by substantial improvement, where the plot rose steadily from a cumulative net lives saved of -4 to 7. These variations in patient outcome are unlikely to have been revealed during conventional audit practice. Variable life-adjusted display has been integrated into surgical care as a graphical display of risk-adjusted survival for individual surgeons or centres. In combination with a simple risk model, it may have a role in monitoring performance and outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

  5. Cumulative Risk Exposure and Mental Health Symptoms among Maltreated Youth Placed in Out-of-Home Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raviv, Tali; Taussig, Heather N.; Culhane, Sara E.; Garrido, Edward F.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: Maltreated children placed in out-of-home care are at high risk for exhibiting symptoms of psychopathology by virtue of their exposure to numerous risk factors. Research examining cumulative risk has consistently found that the accumulation of risk factors increases the likelihood of mental health problems. The goal of the current study…

  6. Twenty-years of lung transplantation in Taiwan: Effects of cumulative institutional experience on early outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shun-Mao Yang

    2017-11-01

    Conclusion: Although the results were undesirable in the first decade of the transplant program, the cumulative institutional experience led to significantly improved outcomes in the second decade of the transplant program.

  7. Low Birth Weight, Cumulative Obesity Dose, and the Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes

    OpenAIRE

    Feng, Cindy; Osgood, Nathaniel D.; Dyck, Roland F.

    2018-01-01

    Background. Obesity history may provide a better understanding of the contribution of obesity to T2DM risk. Methods. 17,634 participants from the 1958 National Child Development Study were followed from birth to 50 years. Cumulative obesity dose, a measure of obesity history, was calculated by subtracting the upper cut-off of the normal BMI from the actual BMI at each follow-up and summing the areas under the obesity dose curve. Hazard ratios (HRs) for diabetes were calculated using Cox regre...

  8. Cumulative risk and developmental health: an argument for the importance of a family-wide science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, Dillon T; Plamondon, Andre; Prime, Heather; Puente-Duran, Sofia; Wade, Mark

    2015-01-01

    A substantial body of research links social disadvantage and developmental health via a cascade running from poverty, to cumulative psychosocial risk, to disrupted family dynamics, to child biological regulatory systems and neurocognitive processing, and finally to morbidity across the lifespan. Most research in this area employs single-dyad or between-family methodology. While informative, there are limitations to this approach. Specifically, it is impossible to determine how risk alters psychosocial environments that are similar for all persons within a household, versus processes that are unique to particular children. This is important in light of literature citing the primacy of child-specific environments in driving developmental health. Methodologically speaking, there are both benefits and challenges to family-wide approaches that differentiate between- and within-family environments. This review describes literature linking cumulative risk and developmental health via family process, while articulating the importance of family-wide approaches. Areas of shortcoming and recommendations for a family-wide science are provided. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Interactive Contributions of Cumulative Peer Stress and Executive Function Deficits to Depression in Early Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agoston, Anna M.; Rudolph, Karen D.

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to peer stress contributes to adolescent depression, yet not all youth experience these effects. Thus, it is important to identify individual differences that shape the consequences of peer stress. This research investigated the interactive contribution of cumulative peer stress during childhood (second-fifth grades) and executive…

  10. Potential Health Risks Posed by Plant-Derived Cumulative Neurotoxic Bufadienolides in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christo Botha

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Bufadienolide-type cardiac glycosides have a worldwide distribution and are mainly synthesized by plants, but there are also animal sources. In South Africa, members of three genera of the Crassulaceae (Cotyledon, Tylecodon and Kalanchoe cause a unique chronic form of cardiac glycoside poisoning, predominantly in small stock. This paretic/paralytic condition is referred to as “krimpsiekte”, cotyledonosis or “nenta”. “Krimpsiekte” is a plant poisoning only reported from South Africa and is regarded as the most important plant poisoning of small stock in the semi-arid Little Karoo and southern fringes of the Great Karoo. The toxicosis is caused by cumulative bufadienolides which have neurotoxic properties. Four types of cumulative neurotoxic bufadienolides, namely cotyledoside, and the tyledosides, orbicusides and lanceotoxins, have been isolated. Based on the structure activity relationships and certain toxicokinetic parameters possible reasons for their accumulation are presented. Consumption of edible tissues from animals that have ingested these plants poses a potential risk to humans.

  11. Examination of cumulative effects of early adolescent depression on cannabis and alcohol use disorder in late adolescence in a community-based cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhew, Isaac C; Fleming, Charles B; Vander Stoep, Ann; Nicodimos, Semret; Zheng, Cheng; McCauley, Elizabeth

    2017-11-01

    Although they often co-occur, the longitudinal relationship between depression and substance use disorders during adolescence remains unclear. This study estimated the effects of cumulative depression during early adolescence (ages 13-15 years) on the likelihood of cannabis use disorder (CUD) and alcohol use disorder (AUD) at age 18. Prospective cohort study of youth assessed at least annually between 6th and 9th grades (~ age 12-15) and again at age 18. Marginal structural models based on a counterfactual framework that accounted for both potential fixed and time-varying confounders were used to estimate cumulative effects of depressive symptoms over early adolescence. The sample originated from four public middle schools in Seattle, Washington, USA. The sample consisted of 521 youth (48.4% female; 44.5% were non-Hispanic White). Structured in-person interviews with youth and their parents were conducted to assess diagnostic symptom counts of depression during early adolescence; diagnoses of CUD and AUD at age 18 was based the Voice-Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children. Cumulative depression was defined as the sum of depression symptom counts from grades 7-9. The past-year prevalence of cannabis and alcohol use disorder at the age 18 study wave was 20.9 and 19.8%, respectively. A 1 standard deviation increase in cumulative depression during early adolescence was associated with a 50% higher likelihood of CUD [prevalence ratio (PR) = 1.50; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.07, 2.10]. Although similar in direction, there was no statistically significant association between depression and AUD (PR = 1.41; 95% CI = 0.94, 2.11). Further, there were no differences in associations according to gender. Youth with more chronic or severe forms of depression during early adolescence may be at elevated risk for developing cannabis use disorder compared with otherwise similar youth who experience fewer depressive symptoms during early adolescence. © 2017 Society

  12. A framework for cumulative risk assessment in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moretto, Angelo; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Solomon, Keith R; Pastoor, Timothy P; Wilks, Martin F; Embry, Michelle R

    2017-02-01

    The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) has developed a framework to support a transition in the way in which information for chemical risk assessment is obtained and used (RISK21). The approach is based on detailed problem formulation, where exposure drives the data acquisition process in order to enable informed decision-making on human health safety as soon as sufficient evidence is available. Information is evaluated in a transparent and consistent way with the aim of optimizing available resources. In the context of risk assessment, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) poses additional problems and questions that can be addressed using the RISK21 approach. The focus in CRA to date has generally been on chemicals that have common mechanisms of action. Recently, concern has also been expressed about chemicals acting on multiple pathways that lead to a common health outcome, and non-chemical other conditions (non-chemical stressors) that can lead to or modify a common outcome. Acknowledging that CRAs, as described above, are more conceptually, methodologically and computationally complex than traditional single-stressor risk assessments, RISK21 further developed the framework for implementation of workable processes and procedures for conducting assessments of combined effects from exposure to multiple chemicals and non-chemical stressors. As part of the problem formulation process, this evidence-based framework allows the identification of the circumstances in which it is appropriate to conduct a CRA for a group of compounds. A tiered approach is then proposed, where additional chemical stressors and/or non-chemical modulating factors (ModFs) are considered sequentially. Criteria are provided to facilitate the decision on whether or not to include ModFs in the formal quantitative assessment, with the intention to help focus the use of available resources to have the greatest potential to protect public health.

  13. Cumulative risk assessment for plasticizer-contaminated food using the hazard index approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.W.; Yan, B.R.; Chang, M.H.; Tseng, S.H.; Kao, Y.M.; Chen, J.C.; Lee, C.C.

    2014-01-01

    Phthalates strongly and adversely affect reproduction, development and liver function. We did a cumulative risk assessment for simultaneous exposure to nine phthalates using the hazard index (HI) and the levels of nine phthalates in 1200 foodstuff samples. DEHP (di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate) present the highest level (mean: 0.443 mg/kg) in 1200 samples, and the highest average daily dose (ADD) was found in DEHP, ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) posed the highest risk potential of all the phthalates. In seven phthalates, the 95th percentiles of the ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) in 0–6-yr-old children accounted for 91% (79–107%) of the tolerable daily intake, and the 95th percentiles of the HIs for the anti-androgenic effects of five phthalates in 0–3-yr-old children and 4–6-yr-old girls were >1. We conclude that the health of younger Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of phthalate-contaminated foods. - Graphical abstract: In seven phthalates, the 95th percentile of the average daily dose (ADD) for ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) in 0–3-yr-old male (0–3 M) and female (0–3 F) children accounted for 97% and 84% of TDIs, respectively. For 4–6-yr-old and 7–12-yr-old males and 7–12-yr-old females, ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) accounted for 79%, 72%, and 65% of TDIs, respectively. - Highlights: • A cumulative risk assessment of PAEs was used in a severe plasticizer-contaminated food episode. • ΣDBP (i + n) posed the highest risk potential of all the dietary phthalates. • Females 4–6 yr old had the highest risk for anti-androgenic effects. • Beverages, milk and dairy products were the major contributors to average daily dose of phthalate esters. - The health of young Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of plasticizer-contaminated food

  14. Community Engaged Cumulative Risk Assessment of Exposure to Inorganic Well Water Contaminants, Crow Reservation, Montana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, John T.; Lefthand, Myra J.; Young, Sara L.; Kindness, Larry; Other Medicine, Roberta; Ford, Timothy E.; Dietrich, Eric; Parker, Albert E.; Hoover, Joseph H.; Camper, Anne K.

    2018-01-01

    An estimated 11 million people in the US have home wells with unsafe levels of hazardous metals and nitrate. The national scope of the health risk from consuming this water has not been assessed as home wells are largely unregulated and data on well water treatment and consumption are lacking. Here, we assessed health risks from consumption of contaminated well water on the Crow Reservation by conducting a community-engaged, cumulative risk assessment. Well water testing, surveys and interviews were used to collect data on contaminant concentrations, water treatment methods, well water consumption, and well and septic system protection and maintenance practices. Additive Hazard Index calculations show that the water in more than 39% of wells is unsafe due to uranium, manganese, nitrate, zinc and/or arsenic. Most families’ financial resources are limited, and 95% of participants do not employ water treatment technologies. Despite widespread high total dissolved solids, poor taste and odor, 80% of families consume their well water. Lack of environmental health literacy about well water safety, pre-existing health conditions and limited environmental enforcement also contribute to vulnerability. Ensuring access to safe drinking water and providing accompanying education are urgent public health priorities for Crow and other rural US families with low environmental health literacy and limited financial resources. PMID:29304032

  15. Rainfall Intensity and Frequency Explain Production Basis Risk in Cumulative Rain Index Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus P.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Huffaker, Ray G.

    2017-12-01

    With minimal moral hazard and adverse selection, weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions through swift compensation at affordable premium. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing gives rise to production basis risk as the selected weather indexes do not sufficiently correspond to actual damages. To address this problem, we develop a stochastic yield model, built upon a stochastic soil moisture model driven by marked Poisson rainfall. Our analysis shows that even under similar temperature and rainfall amount yields can differ significantly; this was empirically supported by a 2-year field experiment in which rain-fed maize was grown under very similar total rainfall. Here, the year with more intense, less-frequent rainfall produces a better yield—a rare counter evidence to most climate change projections. Through a stochastic yield model, we demonstrate the crucial roles of rainfall intensity and frequency in determining the yield. Importantly, the model allows us to compute rainfall pattern-related basis risk inherent in cumulative rain index insurance. The model results and a case study herein clearly show that total rainfall is a poor indicator of yield, imposing unnecessary production basis risk on farmers and false-positive payouts on insurers. Incorporating rainfall intensity and frequency in the design of rain index insurance can offer farmers better protection, while maintaining the attractive features of the weather index insurance and thus fulfilling its promise of financial resilience.

  16. Ecological correlates of multiple sexual partnerships among adolescents and young adults in urban Cape Town: a cumulative risk factor approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muchiri, Evans; Odimegwu, Clifford; Banda, Pamela; Ntoimo, Lorreta; Adedini, Sunday

    2017-07-01

    Studies in South Africa have reported unsafe levels of risky sexual behvaiours among adolescents and young adults, with the country reporting the highest burden of HIV/AIDS globally, as well as a high rate of teenage pregnancy. While determinants of risky sexual behaviours have been investigated for factors occurring at the individual and household levels, not fully explored in the literature is the effect of community level factors. Furthermore, it is unclear whether risk factors occurring within the ecology of adolescents and young adults act cumulatively to influence their sexual practices. This article aims to address this knowledge gap using a case study of the Cape Area Panel Study of adolescents and young adults in urban Cape Town, South Africa. The ecological framework was adopted to guide the selection of risk factors at the individual, household, and community levels. Multivariate linear discriminant function analyses were used to select significant risk factors for multiple sexual partnerships and used to produce risk indices for the respondents. The cumulative risk approach was applied to test whether significant risk factors acted cumulatively. Findings point to the importance of ecological factors in influencing outcomes of multiple sexual partnerships among respondents and further demonstrate that ecological risk factors may act cumulatively. These findings are important for South Africa that is grappling with teenage pregnancy and disproportionate HIV epidemic among the youth.

  17. Cumulative risk effects for the development of behaviour difficulties in children and adolescents with special educational needs and disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldfield, Jeremy; Humphrey, Neil; Hebron, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Research has identified multiple risk factors for the development of behaviour difficulties. What have been less explored are the cumulative effects of exposure to multiple risks on behavioural outcomes, with no study specifically investigating these effects within a population of young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Furthermore, it is unclear whether a threshold or linear risk model better fits the data for this population. The sample included 2660 children and 1628 adolescents with SEND. Risk factors associated with increases in behaviour difficulties over an 18-month period were summed to create a cumulative risk score, with this explanatory variable being added into a multi-level model. A quadratic term was then added to test the threshold model. There was evidence of a cumulative risk effect, suggesting that exposure to higher numbers of risk factors, regardless of their exact nature, resulted in increased behaviour difficulties. The relationship between risk and behaviour difficulties was non-linear, with exposure to increasing risk having a disproportionate and detrimental impact on behaviour difficulties in child and adolescent models. Interventions aimed at reducing behaviour difficulties need to consider the impact of multiple risk variables. Tailoring interventions towards those exposed to large numbers of risks would be advantageous. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Evaluating Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Interactions with Computational Models in Supporting Cumulative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Yu-Mei; Clewell, Harvey; Campbell, Jerry; Andersen, Melvin

    2011-01-01

    Simultaneous or sequential exposure to multiple chemicals may cause interactions in the pharmacokinetics (PK) and/or pharmacodynamics (PD) of the individual chemicals. Such interactions can cause modification of the internal or target dose/response of one chemical in the mixture by other chemical(s), resulting in a change in the toxicity from that predicted from the summation of the effects of the single chemicals using dose additivity. In such cases, conducting quantitative cumulative risk assessment for chemicals present as a mixture is difficult. The uncertainties that arise from PK interactions can be addressed by developing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models to describe the disposition of chemical mixtures. Further, PK models can be developed to describe mechanisms of action and tissue responses. In this article, PBPK/PD modeling efforts conducted to investigate chemical interactions at the PK and PD levels are reviewed to demonstrate the use of this predictive modeling framework in assessing health risks associated with exposures to complex chemical mixtures. PMID:21655141

  19. Process monitoring in intensive care with the use of cumulative expected minus observed mortality and risk-adjusted P charts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cockings, Jerome G L; Cook, David A; Iqbal, Rehana K

    2006-02-01

    A health care system is a complex adaptive system. The effect of a single intervention, incorporated into a complex clinical environment, may be different from that expected. A national database such as the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme in the UK represents a centralised monitoring, surveillance and reporting system for retrospective quality and comparative audit. This can be supplemented with real-time process monitoring at a local level for continuous process improvement, allowing early detection of the impact of both unplanned and deliberately imposed changes in the clinical environment. Demographic and UK Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) data were prospectively collected on all patients admitted to a UK regional hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 in accordance with the ICNARC Case Mix Programme. We present a cumulative expected minus observed (E-O) plot and the risk-adjusted p chart as methods of continuous process monitoring. We describe the construction and interpretation of these charts and show how they can be used to detect planned or unplanned organisational process changes affecting mortality outcomes. Five hundred and eighty-nine adult patients were included. The overall death rate was 0.78 of predicted. Calibration showed excess survival in ranges above 30% risk of death. The E-O plot confirmed a survival above that predicted. Small transient variations were seen in the slope that could represent random effects, or real but transient changes in the quality of care. The risk-adjusted p chart showed several observations below the 2 SD control limits of the expected mortality rate. These plots provide rapid analysis of risk-adjusted performance suitable for local application and interpretation. The E-O chart provided rapid easily visible feedback of changes in risk-adjusted mortality, while the risk-adjusted p chart allowed statistical evaluation. Local analysis of

  20. Non-Chemical Stressors and Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Current Initiatives and Potential Air Pollutant Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.

    2011-01-01

    Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit

  1. Configurations of early risk and their association with academic, cognitive, emotional and behavioural outcomes in middle childhood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oliver, Bonamy R.; Kretschmer, Tina; Maughan, Barbara

    Risk factors for children's development are multifarious and co-occur, having cumulative as well as individual impacts. Yet common configurations of early childhood risks remain little understood. The current study aimed to identify patterns of early risk exposure and to examine their relationship

  2. Cumulative Socioeconomic Status Risk, Allostatic Load, and Adjustment: A Prospective Latent Profile Analysis with Contextual and Genetic Protective Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brody, Gene H.; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-Fu; Kogan, Steven M.; Evans, Gary W.; Beach, Steven R. H.; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L.; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Philibert, Robert A.

    2013-01-01

    The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental…

  3. Family Income, Cumulative Risk Exposure, and White Matter Structure in Middle Childhood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander J. Dufford

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Family income is associated with gray matter morphometry in children, but little is known about the relationship between family income and white matter structure. In this paper, using Tract-Based Spatial Statistics, a whole brain, voxel-wise approach, we examined the relationship between family income (assessed by income-to-needs ratio and white matter organization in middle childhood (N = 27, M = 8.66 years. Results from a non-parametric, voxel-wise, multiple regression (threshold-free cluster enhancement, p < 0.05 FWE corrected indicated that lower family income was associated with lower white matter organization [assessed by fractional anisotropy (FA] for several clusters in white matter tracts involved in cognitive and emotional functions including fronto-limbic circuitry (uncinate fasciculus and cingulum bundle, association fibers (inferior longitudinal fasciculus, superior longitudinal fasciculus, and corticospinal tracts. Further, we examined the possibility that cumulative risk (CR exposure might function as one of the potential pathways by which family income influences neural outcomes. Using multiple regressions, we found lower FA in portions of these tracts, including those found in the left cingulum bundle and left superior longitudinal fasciculus, was significantly related to greater exposure to CR (β = -0.47, p < 0.05 and β = -0.45, p < 0.05.

  4. Cumulative Human Impacts on Coral Reefs: Assessing Risk and Management Implications for Brazilian Coral Reefs

    OpenAIRE

    Rafael A. Magris; Alana Grech; Robert L. Pressey

    2018-01-01

    Effective management of coral reefs requires strategies tailored to cope with cumulative disturbances from human activities. In Brazil, where coral reefs are a priority for conservation, intensifying threats from local and global stressors are of paramount concern to management agencies. Using a cumulative impact assessment approach, our goal was to inform management actions for coral reefs in Brazil by assessing their exposure to multiple stressors (fishing, land-based activities, coastal de...

  5. Cumulative Small Effect Genetic Markers and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer in Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Serrano-Fernandez

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The continued identification of new low-penetrance genetic variants for colorectal cancer (CRC raises the question of their potential cumulative effect among compound carriers. We focused on 6 SNPs (rs380284, rs4464148, rs4779584, rs4939827, rs6983267, and rs10795668, already described as risk markers, and tested their possible independent and combined contribution to CRC predisposition. Material and Methods. DNA was collected and genotyped from 2330 unselected consecutive CRC cases and controls from Estonia (166 cases and controls, Latvia (81 cases and controls, Lithuania (123 cases and controls, and Poland (795 cases and controls. Results. Beyond individual effects, the analysis revealed statistically significant linear cumulative effects for these 6 markers for all samples except of the Latvian one (corrected P value = 0.018 for the Estonian, corrected P value = 0.0034 for the Lithuanian, and corrected P value = 0.0076 for the Polish sample. Conclusions. The significant linear cumulative effects demonstrated here support the idea of using sets of low-risk markers for delimiting new groups with high-risk of CRC in clinical practice that are not carriers of the usual CRC high-risk markers.

  6. Cumulative Effects of Nutrient Enrichment and Elevated Temperature Compromise the Early Life History Stages of the Coral Acropora tenuis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humanes, Adriana; Noonan, Sam H C; Willis, Bette L; Fabricius, Katharina E; Negri, Andrew P

    2016-01-01

    Inshore coral reefs are experiencing the combined pressures of excess nutrient availability associated with coastal activities and warming seawater temperatures. Both pressures are known to have detrimental effects on the early life history stages of hard corals, but studies of their combined effects on early demographic stages are lacking. We conducted a series of experiments to test the combined effects of nutrient enrichment (three levels) and elevated seawater temperature (up to five levels) on early life history stages of the inshore coral Acropora tenuis, a common species in the Indo-Pacific and Red Sea. Gamete fertilization, larval survivorship and larval settlement were all significantly reduced as temperature increased, but only fertilization was further affected by simultaneous nutrient enrichment. Combined high temperatures and nutrient enrichment affected fertilization in an additive manner, whereas embryo abnormalities increased synergistically. Higher than normal temperatures (32°C) increased coral juvenile growth rates 1.6-fold, but mortality also increased by 50%. The co-occurrence of nutrient enrichment with high temperatures reduced juvenile mortality to 36%, ameliorating temperature stress (antagonistic interaction). Overall, the types of effect (additive vs synergistic or antagonistic) and their magnitude varied among life stages. Gamete and embryo stages were more affected by temperature stress and, in some cases, also by nutrient enrichment than juveniles. The data suggest that coastal runoff events might exacerbate the impacts of warming temperatures on fertilization if these events co-occur during corals spawning. The cumulative impacts of simultaneous exposure to nutrient enrichment and elevated temperatures over all early life history stages increases the likelihood for failure of larval supply and recruitment for this coral species. Our results suggest that improving the water quality of river discharges into coastal areas might help to

  7. Cumulative Effects of Nutrient Enrichment and Elevated Temperature Compromise the Early Life History Stages of the Coral Acropora tenuis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noonan, Sam H. C.; Willis, Bette L.; Fabricius, Katharina E.; Negri, Andrew P.

    2016-01-01

    Inshore coral reefs are experiencing the combined pressures of excess nutrient availability associated with coastal activities and warming seawater temperatures. Both pressures are known to have detrimental effects on the early life history stages of hard corals, but studies of their combined effects on early demographic stages are lacking. We conducted a series of experiments to test the combined effects of nutrient enrichment (three levels) and elevated seawater temperature (up to five levels) on early life history stages of the inshore coral Acropora tenuis, a common species in the Indo-Pacific and Red Sea. Gamete fertilization, larval survivorship and larval settlement were all significantly reduced as temperature increased, but only fertilization was further affected by simultaneous nutrient enrichment. Combined high temperatures and nutrient enrichment affected fertilization in an additive manner, whereas embryo abnormalities increased synergistically. Higher than normal temperatures (32°C) increased coral juvenile growth rates 1.6-fold, but mortality also increased by 50%. The co-occurrence of nutrient enrichment with high temperatures reduced juvenile mortality to 36%, ameliorating temperature stress (antagonistic interaction). Overall, the types of effect (additive vs synergistic or antagonistic) and their magnitude varied among life stages. Gamete and embryo stages were more affected by temperature stress and, in some cases, also by nutrient enrichment than juveniles. The data suggest that coastal runoff events might exacerbate the impacts of warming temperatures on fertilization if these events co-occur during corals spawning. The cumulative impacts of simultaneous exposure to nutrient enrichment and elevated temperatures over all early life history stages increases the likelihood for failure of larval supply and recruitment for this coral species. Our results suggest that improving the water quality of river discharges into coastal areas might help to

  8. Cumulative occupational mechanical exposures during working life and risk of sickness absence and disability pension: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundstrup, Emil; Hansen, Åse Marie; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Poulsen, Otto Melchior; Clausen, Thomas; Rugulies, Reiner; Møller, Anne; Andersen, Lars L

    2017-09-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the prospective association of cumulative mechanical exposure during working life with health-related labor market outcomes. Methods This prospective cohort study combines data from 5076 older workers (age 49-63 years) from the Copenhagen Aging and Midlife Biobank with a job exposure matrix and a national register containing information on social transfer payment. By coding individual job histories from the Danish version of ISCO-codes (International Standard Classification of Occupations), we calculated cumulative occupational mechanical exposures from a JEM for ton-years (lifting 1000 kg each day in one year), lifting-years (lifting loads weighing ≥20 kg >10 times each day in one year), kneeling-years (kneeling for one hour each day in one year) and vibration-years (whole-body vibration for one hour each day in one year). Cox-regression analyses estimated the relative risk of register-based long-term sickness absence (LTSA) and disability pension with cumulative occupational mechanical exposures throughout working life. Analyses were censored for competing events and adjusted for multiple confounders. Results During the follow-up period, 970 persons (19.3%) had ≥1 episode of LTSA and 85 persons (1.7%) were granted a disability pension. Number of ton-, lifting- and kneeling-years showed an exposure-response association with increased risk of LTSA (Ppension (HR 1.75 95% CI 1.01-3.04). Conclusions Cumulative occupational mechanical exposures during working life - such as lifting and kneeling work - increased the risk of LTSA. Importantly, being exposed to lifting increased the risk of disability pension.

  9. Cumulative absolute breast cancer risk for young women treated for Hodgkin lymphoma

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Travis, L.B.; Hill, D.A.; Dores, G.M.; Gospodarowicz, M.; Leeuwen, van F.E.; Holowaty, E.; Glimelius, B.; Andersson, M.; Pukkala, E.; Lynch, C.F.; Pee, D.; Smith, S.A.; Veer, van 't M.B.; Joensuu, T.; Storm, H.; Stovall, M.; Boice, J.D.,Jr.; Gilbert, E.; Gail, M.H.

    2005-01-01

    or = 40 Gy) and use of alkylating agents (yes or no) were estimated from a case-control study conducted within an international population-based cohort of 3817 female 1-year survivors of HL diagnosed at age 30 years or younger from January 1, 1965, through December 31, 1994. To compute cumulative

  10. High cumulative insulin exposure: a risk factor of atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muis, Marian J.; Bots, Michiel L.; Bilo, Henk J. G.; Hoogma, Roel P. L. M.; Hoekstra, Joost B. L.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Stolk, Ronald P.

    2005-01-01

    Background: Since insulin therapy might have an atherogenic effect, we studied the relationship between cumulative insulin dose and atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes. We have focused on patients with type 1 diabetes instead of type 2 diabetes to minimise the effect of insulin resistance as a

  11. High cumulative insulin exposure : a risk factor of atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muis, MJ; Bots, ML; Bilo, HJG; Hoogma, RPLM; Hoekstra, JBL; Grobbee, DE; Stolk, RP

    Background: Since insulin therapy might have an atherogenic effect, we studied the relationship between cumulative insulin dose and atherosclerosis in type 1 diabetes. We have focused on patients with type 1 diabetes instead of type 2 diabetes to minimise the effect of insulin resistance as a

  12. Unraveling the Link between Trauma and Male Delinquency: The Cumulative Versus Differential Risk Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maschi, Tina

    2006-01-01

    This study examined how the cumulative (additive) versus differential (individual) effects of trauma influenced male delinquency. Using a comprehensive measure of trauma, a secondary data analysis was conducted on a nationally representative sample of male youths between the ages of 12 and 17. Logistic regression analyses revealed that all three…

  13. Social Determinants of Health in Environmental Justice Communities: Examining Cumulative Risk in Terms of Environmental Exposures and Social Determinants of Health

    OpenAIRE

    Prochaska, John D.; Nolen, Alexandra B.; Kelley, Hilton; Sexton, Ken; Linder, Stephen H.; Sullivan, John

    2014-01-01

    Residents of environmental justice (EJ) communities may bear a disproportionate burden of environmental health risk, and often face additional burdens from social determinants of health. Accounting for cumulative risk should include measures of risk from both environmental sources and social determinants. This study sought to better understand cumulative health risk from both social and environmental sources in a disadvantaged community in Texas. Key outcomes were determining what data are cu...

  14. Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach

    KAUST Repository

    Singh, Gerald G.

    2017-05-23

    Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits — fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity—addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for

  15. Mechanisms and risk of cumulative impacts to coastal ecosystem services: An expert elicitation approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Gerald G; Sinner, Jim; Ellis, Joanne; Kandlikar, Milind; Halpern, Benjamin S; Satterfield, Terre; Chan, Kai M A

    2017-09-01

    Coastal environments are some of the most populated on Earth, with greater pressures projected in the future. Managing coastal systems requires the consideration of multiple uses, which both benefit from and threaten multiple ecosystem services. Thus understanding the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystem services would seem fundamental to management, yet there is no widely accepted approach for assessing these. This study trials an approach for understanding the cumulative impacts of anthropogenic change, focusing on Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand. Using an expert elicitation procedure, we collected information on three aspects of cumulative impacts: the importance and magnitude of impacts by various activities and stressors on ecosystem services, and the causal processes of impact on ecosystem services. We assessed impacts to four ecosystem service benefits - fisheries, shellfish aquaculture, marine recreation and existence value of biodiversity-addressing three main research questions: (1) how severe are cumulative impacts on ecosystem services (correspondingly, what potential is there for restoration)?; (2) are threats evenly distributed across activities and stressors, or do a few threats dominate?; (3) do prominent activities mainly operate through direct stressors, or do they often exacerbate other impacts? We found (1) that despite high uncertainty in the threat posed by individual stressors and impacts, total cumulative impact is consistently severe for all four ecosystem services. (2) A subset of drivers and stressors pose important threats across the ecosystem services explored, including climate change, commercial fishing, sedimentation and pollution. (3) Climate change and commercial fishing contribute to prominent indirect impacts across ecosystem services by exacerbating regional impacts, namely sedimentation and pollution. The prevalence and magnitude of these indirect, networked impacts highlights the need for approaches

  16. Cumulative Risk and Impact Modeling on Environmental Chemical and Social Stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hongtai; Wang, Aolin; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Lam, Juleen; Sirota, Marina; Padula, Amy; Woodruff, Tracey J

    2018-03-01

    The goal of this review is to identify cumulative modeling methods used to evaluate combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors. The specific review question is: What are the existing quantitative methods used to examine the cumulative impacts of exposures to environmental chemical and social stressors on health? There has been an increase in literature that evaluates combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors on health using regression models; very few studies applied other data mining and machine learning techniques to this problem. The majority of studies we identified used regression models to evaluate combined effects of multiple environmental and social stressors. With proper study design and appropriate modeling assumptions, additional data mining methods may be useful to examine combined effects of environmental and social stressors.

  17. Human biomonitoring of phthalate exposure in Austrian children and adults and cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, Christina; Uhl, Maria; Weiss, Stefan; Koch, Holger M; Scharf, Sigrid; König, Jürgen

    2015-07-01

    children. The execution of a cumulative risk assessment based on Hazard Indices showed cause for concern mainly for children, as well as in rare cases for adults. Although phthalate exposure seems to have decreased in previous years, the wide distribution and existing exceedances of acceptable levels indicate that phthalate exposure should be further monitored in order to identify exposure sources and enable appropriate minimisation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  18. Is the cluster risk model of parental adversities better than the cumulative risk model as an indicator of childhood physical abuse?: findings from two representative community surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller-Thomson, E; Sawyer, J-L

    2014-01-01

    Screening strategies for childhood physical abuse (CPA) need to be improved in order to identify those most at risk. This study uses two regionally representative community samples to examine whether a cluster or cumulative model of risk indicators (i.e. parental divorce, parental unemployment, and parental addictions) explains a larger proportion of the variation in CPA. Data were drawn from Statistics Canada's National Population Health Survey (1994-1995) and Canadian Community Health Survey 3.1 (2005). Response rates were greater than 80% in both samples. Each survey had approximately 13,000 respondents aged 18 and over who answered questions about the above adverse childhood experiences. A gradient was shown with similar outcomes in each data set. Only 3.4% of adults who experienced none of the three risk indicators reported they had been physically abused during childhood or adolescence. The prevalence of CPA was greater among those who experienced parental divorce alone (8.3%-10.7%), parental unemployment alone (8.9%-9.7%) or parental addictions alone (18.0%-19.5%). When all three risk indicators were present, the prevalence of CPA ranged from 36.0%-41.0% and the age-sex-race adjusted odds were greater than 15 times that of individuals with none of the three risk indicators. The cluster model explained a statistically significantly larger proportion of the variation than the cumulative model although the difference between the two models was modest. For the purposes of parsimony, the cumulative model may be the better alternative. Adults who were exposed to two or more childhood risk indicators were much more likely to report that they were physically abused during their childhood than those with only one or no risk factors. Medical professionals may use this information on cumulative risk factors to more effectively target screening for potential CPA. Future research should include prospective studies. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Long-term cumulative depressive symptom burden and risk of cognitive decline and dementia among very old women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeki Al Hazzouri, Adina; Vittinghoff, Eric; Byers, Amy; Covinsky, Ken; Blazer, Dan; Diem, Susan; Ensrud, Kristine E; Yaffe, Kristine

    2014-05-01

    Depressive symptoms and cognitive outcomes are strongly interrelated. Despite that rates of depressive symptoms fluctuate during late life, little is known about the impact of long-term cumulative depressive symptom burden on cognitive decline and dementia in older adults. This study examines the association of nearly 20 years of cumulative depressive symptoms with cognitive outcomes in a cohort of older women. We assessed depressive symptoms in 7,240 women using the Geriatric Depression scale (GDS) at serial visits. We used a Poisson model with random slopes to estimate GDS trajectories for each participant from baseline to death or end of follow-up, and then characterized depressive symptom burden by quartile of the area under the curve. We assessed cognitive outcomes using repeated measures of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Trails B score over 20 years, Year-20 neuropsychological test battery, and adjudicated dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Adjusting for potential confounders, compared with women in the lowest quartile of cumulative depressive symptoms burden, women in the highest quartile had 21% more MMSE errors over time (95% CI = 17%, 26%), 20% worse Trails B score over time (95% CI = 17%, 23%), worse scores on most of the Year-20 cognitive tests, and a twofold greater likelihood of developing dementia or MCI (95% CI = 1.48, 3.11). Long-term cumulative depressive symptom burden was associated with cognitive decline and risk of dementia or MCI. Older adults with a history of depression should be closely monitored for recurrent episodes or unresolved depressive symptoms as well as any cognitive deficits.

  20. Consideration of the FQPA Safety Factor and Other Uncertainty Factors in Cumulative Risk Assessment of Chemicals Sharing a Common Mechanism of Toxicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    This guidance document provides OPP's current thinking on application of the provision in FFDCA about an additional safety factor for the protection of infants and children in the context of cumulative risk assessments.

  1. Risk of therapy-related leukaemia and preleukaemia after Hodgkin's disease. Relation to age, cumulative dose of alkylating agents, and time from chemotherapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen-Bjergaard, J.; Specht, L.; Larsen, S.O.

    1987-01-01

    391 patients treated intensively for Hodgkin's disease were followed for up to 15 years to evaluate the risk of therapy-related acute non-lymphocytic leukaemia (t-ANLL) and preleukaemia. Only two independent factors, patient age and cumulative dose of alkylating agents, were related to the risk...... of t-ANLL. The hazard rate of t-ANLL was roughly proportional to the square of patient age and to the total cumulative dose of alkylating agents. In 320 patients treated with alkylating agents the cumulative risk of t-ANLL increased steadily from 1 year after the start of treatment and reached 13.......0% (SE 3.0) at 10 years after which time there were no further cases. Calculated from cessation of therapy with alkylating agents, however, the cumulative risk curve increased steeply during the first 1-2 years then gradually levelled out and no new cases were observed beyond 7 years. With a 15-year...

  2. Applicability of the tissue stem cell turnover concept on the validity of cumulative dose based radiation risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otsuka, Kensuke; Hamada, Nobuyuki; Iwasaki, Toshiyasu; Yoshida, Kazuo

    2011-01-01

    The radiation protection system adopts the linear no-threshold model to achieve proper radiation protection for considering cancer risks resulting from radiation exposure. This model uses cumulative dose to a tissue for risk evaluation in which cumulative dose is related to the amount of DNA damage and consequential induction of gene mutation. In this concept, gene mutation accumulates in tissue stem cells, the putative target of carcinogenesis, with total dose given to the tissue. Unlike high-dose-rate exposure, epidemiological studies in high radiation background areas, such as Kerala in India, revealed that cancer risks is not elevated by the dose to the inhabitants, suggesting that there exists some mechanisms to eliminate the damage/mutation in the exposed tissue under extremely low-dose-rate exposure situations. In this report, the dynamics of tissue stem cell turnover is evaluated as a possible mechanism under extremely low-dose-rate exposure situations. To this end, we reviewed recent literatures studying tissue stem cell turnover, and found that great advances in stem cell research have made it possible to trace a fate of stem cells in tissues. Furthermore, turnover of tissue stem cells is found to occur after irradiation, due to competition of stem cells within tissues. This raises a possibility that radiation effects may not accumulate in a tissue depending on the dose-rate and duration of exposure period. (author)

  3. Effects of cumulative risk on behavioral and psychological well-being in first grade: moderation by neighborhood context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Julie; Caughy, Margaret; Nettles, Saundra M; O'Campo, Patricia J

    2010-10-01

    This study builds upon existing research by examining whether risk indices for child psychological well-being behave in the same way in different types of neighborhoods. Specifically, we sought to determine if neighborhood characteristics acted to exacerbate or, alternatively, to buffer risk factors at the family and/or child level. Families with a child entering first grade in Fall 2002 were recruited from Baltimore City neighborhoods, defined as census block groups. This study included 405 children, and data came from an interview with the primary caregiver and an assessment of the first grader. The dependent variables were externalizing behavior and internalizing problems. A family risk index consisting of 13 measures, and a child risk index consisting of three measures were the main independent variables of interest. We examined the effects of these indices on child psychological well-being and behavior across two neighborhood characteristics: neighborhood potential for community involvement with children and neighborhood negative social climate. Results of multivariate analyses indicated that cumulative family risk was associated with an increase in both internalizing and externalizing behavior problems. Perceived negative social climate moderated the effect of family risks on behavior problems such that more risk was associated with a larger increment in both externalizing behavior problems and psychological problems for children living in high versus low risk neighborhoods. These findings further emphasize the importance of considering neighborhood context in the study of child psychological well-being. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Cumulative socioeconomic status risk, allostatic load, and adjustment: a prospective latent profile analysis with contextual and genetic protective factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brody, Gene H; Yu, Tianyi; Chen, Yi-fu; Kogan, Steven M; Evans, Gary W; Beach, Steven R H; Windle, Michael; Simons, Ronald L; Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X; Philibert, Robert A

    2013-05-01

    The health disparities literature has identified a common pattern among middle-aged African Americans that includes high rates of chronic disease along with low rates of psychiatric disorders despite exposure to high levels of cumulative socioeconomic status (SES) risk. The current study was designed to test hypotheses about the developmental precursors to this pattern. Hypotheses were tested with a representative sample of 443 African American youths living in the rural South. Cumulative SES risk and protective processes were assessed at ages 11-13 years; psychological adjustment was assessed at ages 14-18 years; genotyping at the 5-HTTLPR was conducted at age 16 years; and allostatic load (AL) was assessed at age 19 years. A latent profile analysis identified 5 profiles that evinced distinct patterns of SES risk, AL, and psychological adjustment, with 2 relatively large profiles designated as focal profiles: a physical health vulnerability profile characterized by high SES risk/high AL/low adjustment problems, and a resilient profile characterized by high SES risk/low AL/low adjustment problems. The physical health vulnerability profile mirrored the pattern found in the adult health disparities literature. Multinomial logistic regression analyses indicated that carrying an s allele at the 5-HTTLPR and receiving less peer support distinguished the physical health vulnerability profile from the resilient profile. Protective parenting and planful self-regulation distinguished both focal profiles from the other 3 profiles. The results suggest the public health importance of preventive interventions that enhance coping and reduce the effects of stress across childhood and adolescence.

  5. Do risk factors for problem behaviour act in a cumulative manner? An examination of ethnic minority and majority children through an ecological perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atzaba-Poria, Naama; Pike, Alison; Deater-Deckard, Kirby

    2004-05-01

    Extensive research has identified risk factors for problem behaviour in childhood. However, most of this research has focused on isolated variables, ignoring possible additive influences. The purpose of this study was to examine whether risk factors for problem behaviour act in a cumulative manner, and to investigate whether cumulative risk stemming from distinct ecological levels (Bronfenbrenner, 1979) differentially influences the manifestation of problem behaviours in middle childhood. In addition, ethnic differences between minority (i.e., Indian) and majority (i.e., English) families were examined. The sample consisted of 125 children (59 English and 66 of Indian origin) between the ages of 7 and 9.6 (M = 8.51, SD = 0.62) and their parents. Both mothers and fathers completed questionnaires regarding the children's problem behaviour and provided reports of the children's characteristics and environment. Children were also assessed and provided reports about themselves and their relationships. Finally, parent-child mutuality and parenting behaviour were coded from a videotaped parent-child interaction task. Risk factors acted in a cumulative manner - the more risk children experienced, the more problem behaviour they exhibited. Total problem behaviour was predicted by all three levels: individual, microsystem and exosystem. However, externalising problems were mainly predicted by microsystem-level cumulative risk, whereas internalising problems were predicted by both individual-level cumulative risk and exosystem-level cumulative risk. These results were similar for both ethnic groups. The support for the cumulative hypothesis highlights the importance of having a broad picture of children's characteristics and environmental components when analysing children's adjustment. The distinct influence of risk stemming from the different ecological levels suggests that the trajectories of internalising, externalising and total problem behaviour may be different.

  6. A case study to illustrate the utility of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks for integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which evaluate the risk of multiple adverse outcomes (AOs) from multiple chemicals, promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to integrate risk from relevant stressors. The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework can inform these r...

  7. Where buffalo and cattle meet: Modelling interspecific contact risk using cumulative resistant kernels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaneta Kaszta; Samuel A. Cushman; Claudio Sillero-Zubiri; Eleonore Wolff; Jorgelina Marino

    2018-01-01

    African buffalo the primary source of foot and mouth disease (FMD) infection for livestock in South Africa. Predicting the spatial drivers and patterns of buffalo–cattle contact risk is crucial for developing effective FMD mitigation strategies. Therefore, the goal of this study was to predict fine-scale, seasonal contact risk between cattle and buffaloes straying into...

  8. Cumulative Effects of Mothers' Risk and Promotive Factors on Daughters' Disruptive Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Molen, Elsa; Hipwell, Alison E.; Vermeiren, Robert; Loeber, Rolf

    2012-01-01

    Little is known about the ways in which the accumulation of maternal factors increases or reduces risk for girls' disruptive behavior during preadolescence. In the current study, maternal risk and promotive factors and the severity of girls' disruptive behavior were assessed annually among girls' ages 7-12 in an urban community sample (N = 2043).…

  9. APPROACHES FOR INCORPORATING NON-CHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Over the past twenty years, the risk assessment paradigm has gradually shifted from an individual chemical approach to a community-based model. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is consideration of the totality of stressors affecting a defined population including both ...

  10. Children of Incarcerated Parents: Cumulative Risk and Children's Living Arrangements. JCPR Working Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Elizabeth Inez; Waldfogel, Jane

    This paper examines risk factors that exist in the lives of incarcerated parents and their children, focusing on the living arrangements of the children. It uses data from the 1997 Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities to address three issues: risk factors present in the lives of incarcerated parents and their children,…

  11. Cumulative years in occupation and the risk of hip or knee osteoarthritis in men and women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Susan; Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Davidsen, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Occupational workload has been associated with an increased risk of osteoarthritis (OA), but only little research has been conducted among female workers. The objective of this study was to analyse if men and women in farming, construction or healthcare work have increased risk of developing OA...... of the hip or knee....

  12. Longitudinal patterns of poverty and health in early childhood: exploring the influence of concurrent, previous, and cumulative poverty on child health outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Although the links between poverty and health have often been studied , the dynamics of poverty and physical health in early childhood remain under-investigated. In particular, it is not known whether the health of young children is affected differently from that of adults by patterns of poverty unique to them. Methods We examined patterns of health from 5 to 41 months of age as a function of concurrent, lagged, and chronic exposure to insufficient income. Using data from the first four rounds of the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development, we performed multilevel logistic and multilevel Poisson regressions and latent growth curve analyses to explore associations between exposure to poverty and mother-reported asthma-like attacks, and maternal perception of health status controlling for neonatal, maternal, and environmental characteristics. Results The mean number of mother-reported asthma-like attacks significantly decreased as children aged. The likelihood of being perceived in a poorer health status also decreased across time. Concurrent poverty was associated with more mother-reported asthma-like attacks and with a higher risk of being perceived in poorer health status. One-period-lagged poverty was associated with more mother-reported asthma-like attacks and this remained significant after controlling for concurrent poverty. The number of mother-reported asthma-like attacks was significantly higher among children in the chronic poverty class compared to those in the never-poor class, particularly at 17 and 29 months. Perceived health status at 5-months was significantly poorer among chronically poor children compared to never-poor children. Conclusion Exposure to poverty negatively affects two major health indicators in early childhood – maternal perception of child health and mother-reported asthma-like attacks. Patterns of the effects vary according to timing and duration of poverty exposure. Further longitudinal research is warranted

  13. Exploring Cumulative Risk and Family Literacy Practices in Low-Income Latino Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcella, Jennifer; Howes, Carollee; Fuligni, Allison Sidle

    2014-01-01

    Research Findings: The home literacy environment and other early learning settings such as preschool play a role in children's language and literacy outcomes, yet research suggests that Latino, Spanish-speaking families are less likely than other families to participate in family literacy activities. This study explored the relations among…

  14. Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2011-12-01

    Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have

  15. Examining cumulative victimization, community violence exposure, and stigma as contributors to PTSD symptoms among high-risk young women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Angie C; Bybee, Deborah; Greeson, Megan R

    2014-05-01

    This study examines patterns of lifetime victimization within the family, community violence exposure, and stigma as contributors to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms within a sample of 198 high-risk young women who are pregnant or parenting. We used cluster analysis to identify 5 profiles of cumulative victimization, based on participants' levels of witnessing intimate partner violence (IPV), physical abuse by an adult caregiver, and sexual victimization, all beginning by age 12. Hierarchical regression was used to examine these 5 clusters (ranging from a High All Victimization cluster characterized by high levels of all 3 forms of violence, to a Low All Victimization cluster characterized by low levels of all 3 forms), along with community violence exposure and stigma, as predictors of PTSD symptoms. We found that 3 of the cumulative victimization clusters, in comparison with Low All Victimization, were significant predictors of PTSD symptoms, as was stigma, while community violence exposure was not a significant predictor. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved

  16. Education, income and ethnic differences in cumulative biological risk profiles in a national sample of US adults: NHANES III (1988-1994).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeman, Teresa; Merkin, Sharon S; Crimmins, Eileen; Koretz, Brandon; Charette, Susan; Karlamangla, Arun

    2008-01-01

    Data from the nationally representative US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III cohort were used to examine the hypothesis that socio-economic status is consistently and negatively associated with levels of biological risk, as measured by nine biological parameters known to predict health risks (diastolic and systolic blood pressure, pulse, HDL and total cholesterol, glycosylated hemoglobin, c-reactive protein, albumin and waist-hip ratio), resulting in greater cumulative burdens of biological risk among those of lower education and/or income. As hypothesized, consistent education and income gradients were seen for biological parameters reflecting cardiovascular, metabolic and inflammatory risk: those with lower education and income exhibiting greater prevalence of high-risk values for each of nine individual biological risk factors. Significant education and income gradients were also seen for summary indices reflecting cumulative burdens of cardiovascular, metabolic and inflammatory risks as well as overall total biological risks. Multivariable cumulative logistic regression models revealed that the education and income effects were each independently and negatively associated with cumulative biological risks, and that these effects remained significant independent of age, gender, ethnicity and lifestyle factors such as smoking and physical activity. There were no significant ethnic differences in the patterns of association between socio-economic status and biological risks, but older age was associated with significantly weaker education and income gradients.

  17. Changes in corneal endothelial cell density and the cumulative risk of corneal decompensation after Ahmed glaucoma valve implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyoung Nam; Lee, Sung Bok; Lee, Yeon Hee; Lee, Jong Joo; Lim, Hyung Bin; Kim, Chang-Sik

    2016-07-01

    To evaluate changes in the corneal endothelial cell density (ECD) and corneal decompensation following Ahmed glaucoma valve (AGV) implantation. This study was retrospective and observational case series. Patients with refractory glaucoma who underwent AGV implantation and were followed >5 years were consecutively enrolled. We reviewed the medical records, including the results of central corneal specular microscopy. Of the 127 enrolled patients, the annual change in ECD (%) was determined using linear regression for 72 eyes evaluated at least four times using serial specular microscopic examination and compared with 31 control eyes (fellow glaucomatous eyes under medical treatment). The main outcome measures were cumulative risk of corneal decompensation and differences in the ECD loss rates between subjects and controls. The mean follow-up after AGV implantation was 43.1 months. There were no cases of postoperative tube-corneal touch. The cumulative risk of corneal decompensation was 3.3%, 5 years after AGV implantation. There was a more rapid loss of ECD in the 72 subject eyes compared with the 31 controls (-7.0% and -0.1%/year, respectively; p<0.001). However, the rate of loss decreased over time and statistical significance compared with control eyes disappeared after 2 years postoperatively: -10.7% from baseline to 1 year (p<0.01), -7.0% from 1 year to 2 years (p=0.037), -4.2% from 2 years to 3 years (p=0.230) and -2.7% from 3 years to the final follow-up (p=0.111). In case of uncomplicated AGV implantation, the cumulative risk of corneal decompensation was 3.3%, 5 years after the operation. The ECD loss was statistically greater in eyes with AGV than in control eyes without AGV, but the difference was significant only up to 2 years post surgery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  18. Development of a cumulative risk assessment for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory's waste area group 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burns, D.E.

    1995-01-01

    In 1989, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) was added to the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) National Priorities List of Superfund sites. A Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFA/CO) for the INEL was signed by the Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID), EPA, and the State of Idaho in December 1991. The goal of this agreement is to ensure that potential or actual INEL releases of hazardous substances to the environment are thoroughly investigated in accordance with the National Contingency Plan (NCP) and that appropriate response actions are taken as necessary to protect human health and the environment. The Test Reactor Area (TRA) is included as Waste Area Group (WAG) 2 of ten INEL WAGs identified in the FFA/CO. WAG 2 consists of 13 operable units (OUs) which include pits, tanks, rubble piles, ponds, cooling towers, wells, french drains, perched water and spill areas. OU 2-13 is the Comprehensive Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) for WAG 2. The study presented here is a preliminary evaluation of the comprehensive risk for WAG-2. This investigation will be used as the basis of the WAG-2 comprehensive baseline risk assessment (BRA), and it will serve as a model for other INEL comprehensive risk assessments. The WAG-2 preliminary risk evaluation consisted of two broad phases. These phases were (1) a site and contaminant screening that was intended to support the identification of COPCs and risk assessment data gaps, and (2) an exposure pathway analysis that evaluated the comprehensive human health risks associated with WAG-2. The primary purposes of the investigation were to screen WAG-2 release sites and contaminants, and to identify risk assessment data gaps, so the investigation will be referred to as the WAG-2 Screening and Data Gap Analysis (SDGA) for the remainder of this report

  19. Association Between Cumulative Psychosocial Risk and Cervical Human Papillomavirus Infection Among Female Adolescents in a Free Vaccination Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linares, Lourdes Oriana; Shankar, Viswanathan; Diaz, Angela; Nucci-Sack, Anne; Strickler, Howard D; Peake, Ken; Weiss, Jocelyn; Burk, Robert D; Schlecht, Nicolas F

    2015-10-01

    This study investigated the association of cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) infection with cumulative psychosocial risk reflecting family disadvantage, psychological distress, and unhealthy lifestyle. The sample (N = 745) comprised sexually active female adolescent patients (12-19 yr), primarily ethnic minorities, enrolled in a free HPV vaccination program. Subjects completed questionnaires and provided cervical swabs for HPV DNA testing. Unweighted and weighted principal component analyses for categorical data were used to derive multisystemic psychosocial risk indices using 9 indicators: low socioeconomic status, lack of adult involvement, not attending high school/college, history of treatment for depression/anxiety, antisocial/delinquent behavior, number of recent sexual partners, use of alcohol, use of drugs, and dependency risk for alcohol/drugs. The association between cervical HPV (any type, high-risk types, vaccine types) assayed by polymerase chain reaction and self-reported number of psychosocial risk indicators was estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Subjects had a median of 3 psychosocial risk indicators. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed associations with unweighted and weighted number of psychosocial indicators for HPV any type (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-1.2), with the strongest associations between weighted drug/alcohol use, drug/alcohol dependency risk, and antisocial/delinquent behavior and detection of HPV vaccine types (aOR = 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.0) independent of number of recent sexual partners and vaccine dose (0-3). Increased HPV infections including HPV vaccine types were associated with greater number of psychosocial risk indicators even after controlling for demographics, sexual behavior, history of chlamydia, and vaccine dose.

  20. The Association between Cumulative Psychosocial Risk and Cervical HPV Infection Among Female Adolescents in a Free Vaccination Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linares, Lourdes Oriana; Shankar, Viswanathan; Diaz, Angela; Nucci-Sack, Anne; Strickler, Howard D.; Peake, Ken; Weiss, Jocelyn; Burk, Robert D.; Schlecht, Nicolas F.

    2016-01-01

    Objective This study investigated the association of cervical Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection with cumulative psychosocial risk reflecting family disadvantage, psychological distress, and unhealthy life style. Methods The sample (N=745) was comprised of sexually-active female adolescent patients (12-19 years), primarily ethnic minorities, enrolled in a free HPV vaccination program. Subjects completed questionnaires and provided cervical swabs for HPV DNA testing. Unweighted and weighted Principal Component Analyses (PCA) for categorical data were used to derive multi-systemic psychosocial risk indices using nine indicators: low socioeconomic status, lack of adult involvement, not attending high-school/college, history of treatment for depression/anxiety, antisocial/delinquent behavior, number of recent sexual partners, use of alcohol, use of drugs, and dependency risk for alcohol/drugs. The association between cervical HPV (any-type, high risk-types, vaccine-types) assayed by polymerase chain reaction and self-reported number of psychosocial risk indicators was estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Results Subjects had a median of three psychosocial risk indicators. Multiple logistic regression analyses showed associations with unweighted and weighted number of psychosocial indicators for HPV any-type (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-1.2 ); with the strongest associations between weighted drug/alcohol use, drug/alcohol dependency risk, and antisocial/delinquent behavior and detection of HPV vaccine-types (aOR=1.5; 95%CI: 1.1-2.0) independent of number of recent sexual partners and vaccine dose (0-3). Conclusion Increased HPV infections including HPV vaccine-types were associated with greater number of psychosocial risk indicators even after controlling for demographics, sexual behavior, history of chlamydia, and vaccine dose. PMID:25985216

  1. Cumulative childhood risk is associated with a new measure of chronic inflammation in adulthood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Line Jee Hartmann; Moffitt, Terrie E; Eugen-Olsen, Jesper

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Childhood risk factors are associated with elevated inflammatory biomarkers in adulthood, but it is unknown whether these risk factors are associated with increased adult levels of the chronic inflammation marker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). We aimed to test...... the hypothesis that childhood exposure to risk factors for adult disease is associated with elevated suPAR in adulthood and to compare suPAR with the oft-reported inflammatory biomarker C-reactive protein (CRP). METHODS: Prospective study of a population-representative 1972-1973 birth cohort; the Dunedin...... Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study observed participants to age 38 years. Main childhood predictors were poor health, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), low IQ, and poor self-control. Main adult outcomes were adulthood inflammation measured as suPAR and high...

  2. Establishing sitewide risk perspectives due to cumulative impacts from AB, EP, and NEPA hazard analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olinger, S.J.

    1998-06-01

    With the end of the Cold War in 1992, the mission for the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (Site) was changed from production of nuclear weapon components to special nuclear materials (SNM) and waste management, accelerated cleanup, reuse and closure of the Site. This change in mission presents new hazards and risk management challenges. With today's shrinking DOE budget, a balance needs to be achieved between controlling those hazards related to SNM and waste management and interim storage, and those hazards related to accelerated closure of the Site involving deactivation, decontamination, and decommissioning (DD and D) of surplus nuclear facilities. This paper discusses how risk assessments of normal operations and potential accidents have provided insights on the risks of current operations and planned closure activities

  3. Single-compound and cumulative risk assessment of mycotoxins present in breakfast cereals consumed by children from Lisbon region, Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assunção, Ricardo; Vasco, Elsa; Nunes, Baltazar; Loureiro, Susana; Martins, Carla; Alvito, Paula

    2015-12-01

    Humans can be exposed to multiple chemicals, but current risk assessment is usually carried out on one chemical at a time. Mycotoxins are commonly found in a variety of foods including those intended to consumption by children namely breakfast cereals. The present study aims to perform, the risk assessment of single and multiple mycotoxins present in breakfast cereals consumed by children (1-3 years old) from Lisbon region, Portugal. Daily exposure of children to ochratoxin A, fumonisins and trichothecenes showed no health risks to the children population considering individual mycotoxins, while exposure to aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) suggested a potential health concern for the high percentiles of intake (P90, P95 and P99). The combined exposure to fumonisins and trichothecenes are not expected to be of health concern. The combined margin of exposure (MoET) for the aflatoxins group could constitute a potential health concern and AFB1 was the main contributor for MoET. Legal limits and control strategies regarding the presence of multiple mycotoxins in foodstuffs is an urgent need. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a cumulative risk assessment was performed on multiple mycotoxins present in breakfast cereals consumed by children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Tsunami, War, and Cumulative Risk in the Lives of Sri Lankan Schoolchildren

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catani, Claudia; Gewirtz, Abigail H.; Wieling, Elizabeth; Schauer, Elizabeth; Elbert, Thomas; Neuner, Frank

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the impact of children's exposure to natural disaster against the backdrop of exposure to other traumatic events and psychosocial risks. One thousand three hundred ninety-eight Sri Lankan children aged 9-15 years were interviewed in 4 cross-sectional studies about exposure to traumatic life events related to the war, the…

  5. Multilevel Mediation: Cumulative Contextual Risk, Maternal Differential Treatment, and Children's Behavior within Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meunier, Jean Christophe; Boyle, Michael; O'Connor, Thomas G.; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

    2013-01-01

    This study tests the hypothesis that links between contextual risk and children's outcomes are partially explained by differential parenting. Using multi-informant measurement and including up to four children per family (M[subscript age] = 3.51, SD = 2.38) in a sample of 397 families, indirect effects (through maternal differential…

  6. Cumulative Trauma Among Mayas Living in Southeast Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millender, Eugenia I; Lowe, John

    2017-06-01

    Mayas, having experienced genocide, exile, and severe poverty, are at high risk for the consequences of cumulative trauma that continually resurfaces through current fear of an uncertain future. Little is known about the mental health and alcohol use status of this population. This correlational study explored t/he relationship of cumulative trauma as it relates to social determinants of health (years in the United States, education, health insurance status, marital status, and employment), psychological health (depression symptoms), and health behaviors (alcohol use) of 102 Guatemalan Mayas living in Southeast Florida. The results of this study indicated that, as specific social determinants of health and cumulative trauma increased, depression symptoms (particularly among women) and the risk for harmful alcohol use (particularly among men) increased. Identifying risk factors at an early stage before serious disease or problems are manifest provides room for early screening leading to early identification, early treatment, and better outcomes.

  7. Failure-To-Thrive, Maltreatment and the Behavior and Development of 6-Year-Old Children from Low-Income, Urban Families: A Cumulative Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Mia A.; Black, Maureen M.; Krishnakumar, Ambika

    2000-01-01

    A cumulative risk model was used to examine the relationship among failure-to-thrive (FIT), maltreatment, and four aspects of children's development (cognitive performance, adaptive functioning at school, classroom behavior, and behavior at home) in 193 6-year-olds. Risk status was negatively associated with the four developmental outcomes.…

  8. Cumulative Effects of Several Target Organ Damages in Risk Assessment in Hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbaoui, Brahim; Courand, Pierre-Yves; Defforges, Alice; Khettab, Fouad; Milon, Hugues; Girerd, Nicolas; Lantelme, Pierre

    2016-02-01

    The prognostic value of screening multiple target organ damages (TODs) in hypertensive subjects has not been extensively studied. We estimated the prognostic value of considering 3 TODs in estimating the 10-year survival in hypertensive subjects. At baseline 1,848 out of a cohort of 1,963 hypertensive patients had a previous cardiovascular disease (CVD) or assessments of 3 TODs: Modification in Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) 300mg/day, Sokolow index >3.5 mV, and advanced hypertensive retinopathy (grades 3 and 4 of Keith-Wagener-Barker classification). The cohort was divided into 5 groups: 0 TOD (N = 978), 1 TOD (N = 308), 2 TODs (N = 94), 3 TODs (N = 30), and previous CVD (N = 438). After 10 years of follow-up, we observed 418 deaths of which 254 from cardiovascular cause. The adjusted hazard ratios for the major cardiovascular risk factors showed a progressive risk associated with the number of TODs. For all-cause death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] vs. 0 TOD of the other 4 groups were 1.91 [1.39-2.63], 1.99 [1.28-3.10], 4.33 [2.42-7.72], and 3.09 [2.35-4.05], respectively. For cardiovascular death, the hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] were of the same order of magnitude: 2.14 [1.38-3.32], 2.12 [1.15-3.89], 4.22 [1.83-9.72], and 4.24 [2.95-6.11], respectively. Our results indicate that hypertensive patients with several TODs had a worst outcome. Thus, it seems important to screen for multiple TODs in hypertension; especially check for severe hypertensive retinopathy in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and renal damage. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Prevalence of Pterygia in Hawaii: Examining Cumulative Surfing Hours as a Risk Factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Alexander D; Miles, Ku'ulei; Brinks, Mitchel V

    2016-08-01

    To examine the association between surfing and pterygium prevalence in Hawaii. A convenience sampling was performed at four beaches on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. A total of 169 individuals were interviewed and underwent penlight examination to assess grade and extent of pterygium. Of 169 participants aged 18-80 years, 88 non-surfers, 41 occasional surfers, 15 recreational surfers and 25 surfing enthusiasts were identified based on their lifetime surfing hours. Overall, 19 participants were found to have pterygia (28 pterygia total) including two non-surfers (2.3%), five occasional surfers (12.2%), three recreational surfers (20.0%), and nine enthusiast surfers (36.0%). Variables associated with pterygium prevalence were lifetime surfing hours (p surfing hours as the primary explanatory variable. After adjustment for confounders, a significant linear relationship was observed between chord length and lifetime surfing hours (p = 0.01). Surfing was associated with an increased pterygium prevalence and trend towards an association with increased pterygium severity. Increased risk of exposure to wind, particle irritation, and ultraviolet (UV) radiation while surfing may contribute to pterygium development. Implications for public health include promoting UV protective eyewear during surfing, in addition to raising awareness about the association of pterygia and the sport of surfing.

  10. Risk Factors for Depression in Early Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacPhee, Angela R.; Andrews, Jac J. W.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify salient risk factors for depression in early adolescence from a group of common predictors. The following nine predictors were examined: (1) perceived quality of peer relationships, (2) perceived parental nurturance, (3) perceived parental rejection, (4) self-esteem, (5) body image, (6) pubertal status,…

  11. Assessing stress-related treatment needs among girls at risk for poor functional outcomes: The impact of cumulative adversity, criterion traumas, and non-criterion events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansing, Amy E; Plante, Wendy Y; Beck, Audrey N

    2017-05-01

    Despite growing recognition that cumulative adversity (total stressor exposure, including complex trauma), increases the risk for psychopathology and impacts development, assessment strategies lag behind: Adversity-related mental health needs (symptoms, functional impairment, maladaptive coping) are typically assessed in response to only one qualifying Criterion-A traumatic event. This is especially problematic for youth at-risk for health and academic disparities who experience cumulative adversity, including non-qualifying events (separation from caregivers) which may produce more impairing symptomatology. Data from 118 delinquent girls demonstrate: (1) an average of 14 adverse Criterion-A and non-Criterion event exposures; (2) serious maladaptive coping strategies (self-injury) directly in response to cumulative adversity; (3) more cumulative adversity-related than worst-event related symptomatology and functional impairment; and (4) comparable symptomatology, but greater functional impairment, in response to non-Criterion events. These data support the evaluation of mental health needs in response to cumulative adversity for optimal identification and tailoring of services in high-risk populations to reduce disparities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. CUMULATIVE TRAUMAS AND RISK THRESHOLDS: 12-MONTH PTSD IN THE WORLD MENTAL HEALTH (WMH) SURVEYS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karam, Elie G.; Friedman, Matthew J.; Hill, Eric D.; Kessler, Ronald C.; McLaughlin, Katie A.; Petukhova, Maria; Sampson, Laura; Shahly, Victoria; Angermeyer, Matthias C.; Bromet, Evelyn J.; de Girolamo, Giovanni; de Graaf, Ron; Demyttenaere, Koen; Ferry, Finola; Florescu, Silvia E.; Haro, Josep Maria; He, Yanling; Karam, Aimee N.; Kawakami, Norito; Kovess-Masfety, Viviane; Medina-Mora, María Elena; Browne, Mark A. Oakley; Posada-Villa, José A.; Shalev, Arieh Y.; Stein, Dan J.; Viana, Maria Carmen; Zarkov, Zahari; Koenen, Karestan C.

    2014-01-01

    Background Clinical research suggests that posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) patients exposed to multiple traumatic events (TEs) rather than a single TE have increased morbidity and dysfunction. Although epidemiological surveys in the United States and Europe also document high rates of multiple TE exposure, no population-based cross-national data have examined this issue. Methods Data were analyzed from 20 population surveys in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Survey Initiative (n 51,295 aged 18+). The Composite International Diagnostic Interview (3.0) assessed 12-month PTSD and other common DSM-IV disorders. Respondents with 12-month PTSD were assessed for single versus multiple TEs implicated in their symptoms. Associations were examined with age of onset (AOO), functional impairment, comorbidity, and PTSD symptom counts. Results 19.8% of respondents with 12-month PTSD reported that their symptoms were associated with multiple TEs. Cases who associated their PTSD with four or more TEs had greater functional impairment, an earlier AOO, longer duration, higher comorbidity with mood and anxiety disorders, elevated hyper-arousal symptoms, higher proportional exposures to partner physical abuse and other types of physical assault, and lower proportional exposure to unexpected death of a loved one than cases with fewer associated TEs. Conclusions A risk threshold was observed in this large-scale cross-national database wherein cases who associated their PTSD with four or more TEs presented a more “complex” clinical picture with substantially greater functional impairment and greater morbidity than other cases of PTSD. PTSD cases associated with four or more TEs may merit specific and targeted intervention strategies. Depression and Anxiety 31:130–142, 2014. PMID:23983056

  13. The Cumulative Disadvantages of Socially Toxic Family Environments: A Comparison of Early Life Experiences of Incarcerated Men and University Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Michalski

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines the antecedents of criminal behavior through the process of retrospective family and life course histories in which incarcerated male inmates and male university students are compared. The main focus is on early childhood experiences and parental behaviors. The study data derive from intensive, face-to-face interviews with 38 men incarcerated for violent offences and a matched group of 66 men attending university at the same time. The interviews focus on the relative importance of adverse childhood experiences and linkages with adolescence. The interviews demonstrated that nearly four-fifths of the inmates experienced toxic family environments by the time they reached adolescence, as compared with only two of the university students. Qualitative analyses flesh out the major themes, experiences, and “risk factors” that helped shape the trajectories of both groups of men. The socially toxic family environments and sub-optimal parenting practices that most inmates endured produced long-term, adverse effects in reducing their capacities for resilience, forging healthy relationships with their peers, and remaining in school.

  14. Probabilistic acute risk assessment of cumulative exposure to organophosphorus and carbamate pesticides from dietary vegetables and fruits in Shanghai populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fan; Yuan, Yaqun; Meng, Pai; Wu, Min; Li, Shuguang; Chen, Bo

    2017-05-01

    Organophosphorus pesticides (OPs) and carbamate pesticides (CPs) are among the most widely used pesticides in China, playing a major role in protecting agricultural commodities. In this study, we determined the cumulative acute exposure to OPs and CPs of Shanghai residents from vegetables and fruits (VFs). The food consumption data were obtained from the Shanghai Food Consumption Survey (SHFCS) of 2012-14 including a total of 1973 participants aged 2-90 years. The pesticide residue data were obtained from the Shanghai monitoring programme during 2008-11 with 34 organophosphates and 11 carbamates analysed in a total of 5335 samples of VFs. A probabilistic approach was performed as recommended by the EFSA, using the optimistic model with non-detects set as zero and with processing factors (PFs) being used and the pessimistic model with non-detects replaced by limit of detection (LOD) and without PFs. We used the relative potency factor (RPF) method to normalise the various pesticides to the index compound (IC) of methamidophos and chlorpyrifos separately. Only in the pessimistic model using methamidophos as the IC was there was small risk of exposure exceeding the ARfD (3 µg kg - 1 bw day - 1 ) in the populations of preschool children (0.029%), school-age children (0.022%) and adults (0.002%). There were no risk of exposure exceeding the ARfD of methamidophos in the optimistic model and of chlorpyrifos (100 µg kg - 1 bw day - 1 ) in both optimistic and pessimistic models in all three populations. Considering the Chinese habits of overwhelmingly eating processed food (vegetables being cooked, and fruits being washed or peeled), we conclude that little acute risk was found for the exposure to VF-sourced OPs and CPs in Shanghai.

  15. The Cumulative Lifting Index (CULI) for the Revised NIOSH Lifting Equation: Quantifying Risk for Workers With Job Rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, Arun; Kapellusch, Jay M

    2016-08-01

    The objectives were to: (a) develop a continuous frequency multiplier (FM) for the Revised NIOSH Lifting Equation (RNLE) as a function of lifting frequency and duration of a lifting task, and (b) describe the Cumulative Lifting Index (CULI), a methodology for estimating physical exposure to workers with job rotation. The existing FM for the RNLE (FME) does not differentiate between task duration >2 hr and <8 hr, which makes quantifying physical exposure to workers with job rotation difficult and presents challenges to job designers. Using the existing FMs for 1, 2, and 8 hr of task durations, we developed a continuous FM (FMP) that extends to 12 hr per day. We simulated 157,500 jobs consisting of two tasks each and, using different combinations of Frequency Independent Lifting Index, lifting frequency and duration of lifting. Biomechanical stresses were estimated using the CULI, time-weighted average (TWA), and peak exposure. The median difference between FME and FMP was ±1% (range: 0%-15%). Compared to CULI, TWA underestimated risk of low-back pain (LBP) for 18% to 30% of jobs, and peak exposure for an assumed 8-hr work shift overestimated risk of LBP for 20% to 25% of jobs. Peak task exposure showed 90% agreement with CULI but ignored one of two tasks. The CULI partially addressed the underestimation of physical exposure using the TWA approach and overestimation of exposure using the peak-exposure approach. The proposed FM and CULI may provide more accurate physical exposure estimates, and therefore estimated risk of LBP, for workers with job rotation. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  16. Social Determinants of Health in Environmental Justice Communities: Examining Cumulative Risk in Terms of Environmental Exposures and Social Determinants of Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prochaska, John D; Nolen, Alexandra B; Kelley, Hilton; Sexton, Ken; Linder, Stephen H; Sullivan, John

    2014-01-01

    Residents of environmental justice (EJ) communities may bear a disproportionate burden of environmental health risk, and often face additional burdens from social determinants of health. Accounting for cumulative risk should include measures of risk from both environmental sources and social determinants. This study sought to better understand cumulative health risk from both social and environmental sources in a disadvantaged community in Texas. Key outcomes were determining what data are currently available for this assessment, clarifying data needs, identifying data gaps, and considering how those gaps could be filled. Analyses suggested that the traditionally defined EJ community in Port Arthur may have a lower environmental risk from air toxics than the rest of the City of Port Arthur (although the entire city has a higher risk than the average for the state), but may have a larger burden from social determinants of health. However, the results should be interpreted in light of the availability of data, the definitions of community boundaries, and the areal unit utilized. Continued focus on environmental justice communities and the cumulative risks faced by their residents is critical to protecting these residents and, ultimately, moving towards a more equitable distribution and acceptable level of risk throughout society.

  17. Understanding the Relation of Low Income to HPA-Axis Functioning in Preschool Children: Cumulative Family Risk and Parenting as Pathways to Disruptions in Cortisol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalewski, Maureen; Lengua, Liliana J.; Kiff, Cara J.; Fisher, Philip A.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the relation of low income and poverty to cortisol levels, and tested potential pathways from low income to disruptions in cortisol through cumulative family risk and parenting. The sample of 306 mothers and their preschool children included 29 % families at or near poverty, 27 % families below the median income, and the…

  18. Towards personalized screening: Cumulative risk of breast cancer screening outcomes in women with and without a first-degree relative with a history of breast cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ripping, Theodora Maria; Hubbard, Rebecca A.; Otten, Johannes D. M.; den Heeten, Gerard J.; Verbeek, André L. M.; Broeders, Mireille J. M.

    2016-01-01

    Several reviews have estimated the balance of benefits and harms of mammographic screening in the general population. The balance may, however, differ between individuals with and without family history. Therefore, our aim is to assess the cumulative risk of screening outcomes; screen-detected

  19. Association between B vitamins supplementation and risk of cardiovascular outcomes: a cumulative meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Zhang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Observational studies suggest that B vitamin supplementation reduces cardiovascular risk in adults, but this association remains controversial. This study aimed to summarize the evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs investigating B vitamin supplementation for the primary or secondary prevention of major adverse cardiovascular outcomes and to perform a cumulative meta-analysis to determine the evidence base. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In April 2013, we searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library to identify relevant RCTs. We included RCTs investigating the effect of B vitamin supplementation on cardiovascular outcome. Relative risk (RR was used to measure the effect using a random-effect model. Statistical heterogeneity scores were assessed using the Q statistic. We included data on 57,952 individuals from 24 RCTs: 12 primary prevention trials and 12 secondary prevention trials. In 23 of these trials, 10,917 major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE occurred; in 20 trials, 7,203 deaths occurred; in 15 trials, 3,422 cardiac deaths occurred; in 19 trials, 3,623 myocardial infarctions (MI occurred; and in 18 trials, 2,465 strokes occurred. B vitamin supplementation had little or no effect on the incidence of MACE (RR, 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-1.03; P = 0.37, total mortality (RR, 1.01; 95% CI: 0.97-1.05; P = 0.77, cardiac death (RR, 0.96; 95% CI: 0.90-1.02; P = 0.21, MI (RR, 0.99; 95% CI: 0.93-1.06; P = 0.82, or stroke (RR, 0.94; 95% CI: 0.85-1.03; P = 0.18. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: B vitamin supplementation, when used for primary or secondary prevention, is not associated with a reduction in MACE, total mortality, cardiac death, MI, or stroke.

  20. Early risk factors for suicide in an epidemiological first episode psychosis cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutta, Rina; Murray, Robin M; Allardyce, Judith; Jones, Peter B; Boydell, Jane

    2011-03-01

    Much remains unknown about whether there are early risk factors for suicide in psychosis. The aim of the study was to determine whether there are any identifiable early symptom clusters, aetiological factors or illness course markers for suicide in first episode psychosis. A total of 2132 patients with first episode psychosis presenting to secondary care services in London (1965-2004; n=1474), Nottingham (1997-1999; n=195) and Dumfries and Galloway (1979-1998; n=463) were traced after up to 40 years (mean 13 years) following first presentation. Risk factors were identified from the Operational Checklist for Psychotic Disorders rated for the first year following presentation. Overall, there were 51 suicides and 373 deaths from other causes. Male gender (RR 2.84, 95% CI 1.20-6.69, p=0.02) and a cumulative threshold effect of symptoms early in the illness (RR 6.81, 95% CI 2.33-19.85, p<0.001) were associated with a higher propensity for later completed suicide. There was also a suggestion that early manic symptoms might increase the risk of later suicide irrespective of initial diagnosis. Suicide risk was associated with a cumulative threshold effect of symptoms and manic symptoms. As suicide is a relatively rare event in psychotic disorders, general population-based prevention strategies may have more impact in this vulnerable group as well as the wider population. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Early life risk factors for testicular cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Piltoft, Johanne Spanggaard; Larsen, Signe Benzon; Dalton, Susanne Oksbjerg

    2017-01-01

    of this study is to utilize data from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register (CSHRR) to evaluate cryptorchidism, birth weight and birth order as risk factors for testicular cancer. METHODS: The study population consisted of 408 cases of testicular cancer identified by a government issued identification...... in crude analyses [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.60, 95% CI 2.79-4.65]. Birth weight was inversely associated with testicular cancer and no clear association with birth order was observed. The positive association between cryptorchidism and testicular cancer was only slightly attenuated controlling for birth......PURPOSE: One established risk factors for testicular cancer is cryptorchidism. However, it remains unclear whether cryptorchidism is a risk factor in itself or whether the two conditions share common causes in early life (estrogen hypothesis), such as birth weight and birth order. The objective...

  2. Single and Cumulative Relations of Social Risk Factors with Children's Dental Health and Care-Utilization Within Regions of the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Alyssa J; Gromoske, Andrea N; Olson, Melissa A; Chaffin, Jeffrey G

    2016-03-01

    The purpose is to examine the relation of social risk factors, and the cumulative burden of social risk factors, on parent-reported dental health and dental care-seeking behavior. National Survey of Children's Health data (2011-2012) were analyzed for US children by Title V Block Grant regions. Multivariate logistic regressions were estimated for ten social risk factors, as well as a cumulative risk index, to find any associations with poor condition of teeth, presence of dental caries, and no dental care visits. Almost all of the risk factors were significantly associated with poor condition of teeth and presence of dental caries for the US. Models associating no dental care visits suggested that low family income (OR 1.58), poor maternal mental health (OR 1.54), high school education or less (OR 1.34), and multi-racial/other race (OR 1.18) were significant factors for the US. Regional variation existed for those risk factors and their association with the outcomes, but income, education, and poor maternal mental health consistently played a significant role in adverse outcomes. The cumulative risk index was strongly related to poor oral health outcomes, with a weaker relationship to dental care utilization. US children experiencing certain social risk factors, such as low family income, high school education or less, and poor maternal mental health, are likely to be at greater risk for poor dental health and low levels of dental-care seeking behavior. Children experiencing multiple social risks are at greater risk for poor oral outcomes than children who experience fewer social risks. An approach that involves the social determinants of health is needed to address these issues.

  3. Hybrid capture 2 viral load and the 2-year cumulative risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castle, Philip E; Schiffman, Mark; Wheeler, Cosette M

    2004-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the clinical value of a semiquantitative measure of human papillomavirus viral load by the hybrid capture 2 assay for stratification of the risk of histologic cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or carcinoma. The Atypical Cells of Unknown Significance and Low-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions Triage Study was a randomized clinical trial of 5060 women with 2 years of follow-up to evaluate treatment strategies for women with equivocal or mildly abnormal cervical cytologic condition. The usefulness of the continuous hybrid capture 2 output relative light units/positive controls that were above the positive threshold (1.0 relative light units/positive controls), which was a surrogate for human papillomavirus viral load, for distinguishing between hybrid capture 2 positive women who were diagnosed with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or carcinoma during the study from those who were not diagnosed with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or carcinoma was examined with the use of receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Relative light units/positive controls values did not further discriminate between hybrid capture 2 positive women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or carcinoma from those with less than cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or carcinoma. The use of a cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more severe or carcinoma case definition did not alter our findings. Among women with atypical cells of unknown significance or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion cervical cytologic findings, the hybrid capture 2 viral load measurement did not improve the detection of 2-year cumulative cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or carcinoma significantly.

  4. The effects of cumulative risks and promotive factors on urban adolescent alcohol and other drug use: a longitudinal study of resiliency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostaszewski, Krzysztof; Zimmerman, Marc A

    2006-12-01

    Resiliency theory provides a conceptual framework for studying why some youth exposed to risk factors do not develop the negative behaviors they predict. The purpose of this study was to test compensatory and protective models of resiliency in a longitudinal sample of urban adolescents (80% African American). The data were from Years 1 (9th grade) and 4 (12th grade). The study examined effects of cumulative risk and promotive factors on adolescent polydrug use including alcohol, tobacco and marijuana. Cumulative measures of risk/promotive factors represented individual characteristics, peer influence, and parental/familial influences. After controlling for demographics, results of multiple regression of polydrug use support the compensatory model of resiliency both cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Promotive factors were also found to have compensatory effects on change in adolescent polydrug use. The protective model of resiliency evidenced cross-sectionally was not supported in longitudinal analysis. The findings support resiliency theory and the use of cumulative risk/promotive measures in resiliency research. Implications focused on utilizing multiple assets and resources in prevention programming are discussed.

  5. Repeated exposure to high-frequency spanking and child externalizing behavior across the first decade: a moderating role for cumulative risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKenzie, Michael J; Nicklas, Eric; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne; Waldfogel, Jane

    2014-12-01

    This study used the Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study to examine the effects of repeated exposure to harsh parenting on child externalizing behavior across the first decade of life, and a moderating role for cumulative ecological risk. Maternal report of harsh parenting, defined as high frequency spanking, was assessed at age 1, 3, 5, and 9, along with child externalizing at age 9 (N=2,768). Controlling for gender, race, maternal nativity, and city of residence, we found a cumulative risk index to significantly moderate the effects of repeated harsh parenting on child behavior, with the effects of repeated high-frequency spanking being amplified for those experiencing greater levels of cumulative risk. Harsh parenting, in the form of high frequency spanking, remains a too common experience for children, and results demonstrate that the effects of repeated exposure to harsh parenting across the first decade are amplified for those children already facing the most burden. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  6. The Use of the Kurtosis-Adjusted Cumulative Noise Exposure Metric in Evaluating the Hearing Loss Risk for Complex Noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hong-Wei; Qiu, Wei; Heyer, Nicholas J; Zhang, Mei-Bian; Zhang, Peng; Zhao, Yi-Ming; Hamernik, Roger P

    2016-01-01

    To test a kurtosis-adjusted cumulative noise exposure (CNE) metric for use in evaluating the risk of hearing loss among workers exposed to industrial noises. Specifically, to evaluate whether the kurtosis-adjusted CNE (1) provides a better association with observed industrial noise-induced hearing loss, and (2) provides a single metric applicable to both complex (non-Gaussian [non-G]) and continuous or steady state (Gaussian [G]) noise exposures for predicting noise-induced hearing loss (dose-response curves). Audiometric and noise exposure data were acquired on a population of screened workers (N = 341) from two steel manufacturing plants located in Zhejiang province and a textile manufacturing plant located in Henan province, China. All the subjects from the two steel manufacturing plants (N = 178) were exposed to complex noise, whereas the subjects from textile manufacturing plant (N = 163) were exposed to a G continuous noise. Each subject was given an otologic examination to determine their pure-tone HTL and had their personal 8-hr equivalent A-weighted noise exposure (LAeq) and full-shift noise kurtosis statistic (which is sensitive to the peaks and temporal characteristics of noise exposures) measured. For each subject, an unadjusted and kurtosis-adjusted CNE index for the years worked was created. Multiple linear regression analysis controlling for age was used to determine the relationship between CNE (unadjusted and kurtosis adjusted) and the mean HTL at 3, 4, and 6 kHz (HTL346) among the complex noise-exposed group. In addition, each subject's HTLs from 0.5 to 8.0 kHz were age and sex adjusted using Annex A (ISO-1999) to determine whether they had adjusted high-frequency noise-induced hearing loss (AHFNIHL), defined as an adjusted HTL shift of 30 dB or greater at 3.0, 4.0, or 6.0 kHz in either ear. Dose-response curves for AHFNIHL were developed separately for workers exposed to G and non-G noise using both unadjusted and adjusted CNE as the exposure

  7. Toward the breast screening balance sheet: cumulative risk of false positives for annual versus biennial mammograms commencing at age 40 or 50.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winch, Caleb J; Sherman, Kerry A; Boyages, John

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to: (1) Estimate cumulative risk of recall from breast screening where no cancer is detected (a harm) in Australia; (2) Compare women screened annually versus biennially, commencing age 40 versus 50; and (3) Compare with international findings. At the no-cost metropolitan program studied, women attended biennial screening, but were offered annual screening if regarded at elevated risk for breast cancer. The cumulative risk of at least one recall was estimated using discrete-time survival analysis. Cancer detection statistics were computed. In total, 801,636 mammograms were undertaken in 231,824 women. Over 10 years, cumulative risk of recall was 13.3 % (95 % CI 12.7-13.8) for those screened biennially, and 19.9 % (CI 16.6-23.2) for those screened annually from age 50-51. Cumulative risk of complex false positive involving a biopsy was 3.1 % (CI 2.9-3.4) and 5.0 % (CI 3.4-6.6), respectively. From age 40-41, the risk of recall was 15.1 % (CI 14.3-16.0) and 22.5 % (CI 17.9-27.1) for biennial and annual screening, respectively. Corresponding rates of complex false positive were 3.3 % (CI 2.9-3.8) and 6.3 % (CI 3.4-9.1). Over 10 mammograms, invasive cancer was detected in 3.4 % (CI 3.3-3.5) and ductal carcinoma in situ in 0.7 % (CI 0.6-0.7) of women, with a non-significant trend toward a larger proportion of Tis and T1N0 cancers in women screened annually (74.5 %) versus biennially (70.1 %), χ (2) = 2.77, p = 0.10. Cancer detection was comparable to international findings. Recall risk was equal to European estimates for women screening from 50 and lower for screening from 40. Recall risk was half of United States' rates across start age and rescreening interval categories. Future benefit/harm balance sheets may be useful for communicating these findings to women.

  8. Cumulative effective dose and cancer risk for pediatric population in repetitive full spine follow-up imaging: How micro dose is the EOS microdose protocol?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Martin; Ma, Wang-Kei; Lau, Damian; Cheung, Kenneth; Ip, Janice; Yip, Lawrance; Lam, Wendy

    2018-04-01

    To evaluate and to obtain analytic formulation for the calculation of the effective dose and associated cancer risk using the EOS microdose protocol for scoliotic pediatric patients undergoing full spine imaging at different age of exposure; to demonstrate the microdose protocol capable of delivering lesser radiation dose and hence of further reducing cancer risk induction when compared with the EOS low dose protocol; to obtain cumulative effective dose and cancer risk for both genders scoliotic pediatrics of US and Hong Kong population using the microdose protocol. Organ absorbed doses of full spine exposed scoliotic pediatric patients have been simulated with the use of EOS microdose protocol imaging parameters input to the Monte Carlo software PCXMC. Gender and age specific effective dose has been calculated with the simulated organ absorbed dose using the ICRP-103 approach. The associated radiation induced cancer risk, expressed as lifetime attributable risk (LAR), has been estimated according to the method introduced in the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. Values of LAR have been estimated for scoliotic patients exposed repetitively during their follow up period at different age for US and Hong Kong population. The effective doses of full spine imaging with simultaneous posteroanterior and lateral projection for patients exposed at the age between 5 and 18 years using the EOS microdose protocol have been calculated within the range of 2.54-14.75 μSv. The corresponding LAR for US and Hong Kong population was ranged between 0.04 × 10 -6 and 0.84 × 10 -6 . Cumulative effective dose and cancer risk during follow-up period can be estimated using the results and are of information to patients and their parents. With the use of computer simulation and analytic formulation, we obtained the cumulative effective dose and cancer risk at any age of exposure for pediatric patients of US and Hong Kong population undergoing repetitive

  9. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimates cumulative incidence of health-related events in competing risk settings: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacny, Sarah; Wilson, Todd; Clement, Fiona; Roberts, Derek J; Faris, Peter; Ghali, William A; Marshall, Deborah A

    2018-01-01

    Kaplan-Meier survival analysis overestimates cumulative incidence in competing risks (CRs) settings. The extent of overestimation (or its clinical significance) has been questioned, and CRs methods are infrequently used. This meta-analysis compares the Kaplan-Meier method to the cumulative incidence function (CIF), a CRs method. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS Previews, Web of Science (1992-2016), and article bibliographies for studies estimating cumulative incidence using the Kaplan-Meier method and CIF. For studies with sufficient data, we calculated pooled risk ratios (RRs) comparing Kaplan-Meier and CIF estimates using DerSimonian and Laird random effects models. We performed stratified meta-analyses by clinical area, rate of CRs (CRs/events of interest), and follow-up time. Of 2,192 identified abstracts, we included 77 studies in the systematic review and meta-analyzed 55. The pooled RR demonstrated the Kaplan-Meier estimate was 1.41 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36, 1.47] times higher than the CIF. Overestimation was highest among studies with high rates of CRs [RR = 2.36 (95% CI: 1.79, 3.12)], studies related to hepatology [RR = 2.60 (95% CI: 2.12, 3.19)], and obstetrics and gynecology [RR = 1.84 (95% CI: 1.52, 2.23)]. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the cumulative incidence across 10 clinical areas. Using CRs methods will ensure accurate results inform clinical and policy decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Towards personalized screening: Cumulative risk of breast cancer screening outcomes in women with and without a first-degree relative with a history of breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripping, Theodora Maria; Hubbard, Rebecca A; Otten, Johannes D M; den Heeten, Gerard J; Verbeek, André L M; Broeders, Mireille J M

    2016-04-01

    Several reviews have estimated the balance of benefits and harms of mammographic screening in the general population. The balance may, however, differ between individuals with and without family history. Therefore, our aim is to assess the cumulative risk of screening outcomes; screen-detected breast cancer, interval cancer, and false-positive results, in women screenees aged 50-75 and 40-75, with and without a first-degree relative with a history of breast cancer at the start of screening. Data on screening attendance, recall and breast cancer detection were collected for each woman living in Nijmegen (The Netherlands) since 1975. We used a discrete time survival model to calculate the cumulative probability of each major screening outcome over 19 screening rounds. Women with a family history of breast cancer had a higher risk of all screening outcomes. For women screened from age 50-75, the cumulative risk of screen-detected breast cancer, interval cancer and false-positive results were 9.0, 4.4 and 11.1% for women with a family history and 6.3, 2.7 and 7.3% for women without a family history, respectively. The results for women 40-75 followed the same pattern for women screened 50-75 for cancer outcomes, but were almost doubled for false-positive results. To conclude, women with a first-degree relative with a history of breast cancer are more likely to experience benefits and harms of screening than women without a family history. To complete the balance and provide risk-based screening recommendations, the breast cancer mortality reduction and overdiagnosis should be estimated for family history subgroups. © 2015 UICC.

  11. Risk of Fatal Cerebrovascular Accidents after External Beam Radiation Therapy for Early Stage Glottic Larynx Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swisher-McClure, Samuel; Mitra, Nandita; Lin, Alexander; Ahn, Peter; Wan, Fei; O’Malley, Bert; Weinstein, Gregory S.; Bekelman, Justin E.

    2013-01-01

    Background This study compared the risk of fatal cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) in patients with early stage glottic larynx cancer receiving surgery or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Methods and Materials Using a competing risks survival analysis, we compared the risk of death due to CVA among patients with early stage glottic larynx cancer receiving surgery or EBRT in the SEER database. Results The cumulative incidence of fatal CVA at 15 years was higher in patients receiving EBRT (2.8 %; 95% CI 2.3%–3.4%) compared to surgery (1.5 %; 95% CI 0.8 %–2.3%, p= 0.024). In multivariable competing risks regression models, EBRT remained associated with an increased risk of fatal CVA compared to surgery (adjusted HR 1.75; 95% CI 1.04–2.96, p= 0.037). Conclusion Treatment of early stage glottic larynx cancer with EBRT was associated with a small increase in the risk of late fatal CVA events relative to surgery. PMID:23595858

  12. Re-conceptualising prenatal life stressors in predicting post-partum depression: cumulative-, specific-, and domain-specific approaches to calculating risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Cindy H; Tronick, Ed

    2013-09-01

    Prenatal life stress predicts post-partum depression (PPD); however, studies generally examine individual stressors (a specific approach) or the summation of such exposure (a cumulative approach) and their associations with PPD. Such approaches may oversimplify prenatal life stress as a risk factor for PPD. We evaluated approaches in assessing prenatal life stress as a predictor of PPD diagnosis, including a domain-specific approach that captures cumulative life stress while accounting for stress across different life stress domains: financial, relational, and physical health. The Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, a population-based survey, was used to analyse the association of prenatal life stressors with PPD diagnoses among 3566 New York City post-partum women. Specific stressors were not associated with PPD diagnosis after controlling for sociodemographic variables. Exposure to a greater number of stressors was associated with PPD diagnosis, even after adjusting for both sociodemographic variables and specific stressors [odds ratio (OR) = 3.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.5, 6.7]. Individuals reporting a moderate-to-high number of financial problems along with a moderate-to-high number of physical problems were at greater odds of PPD (OR = 4.2, 95% CI = 1.2, 15.3); those with a moderate-to-high number of problems in all three domains were at over fivefold increased odds of PPD (OR = 5.5, CI = 1.1, 28.5). In assessing prenatal stress, clinicians should consider the extent to which stressors occur across different life domains; this association appears stronger with PPD diagnosis than simple assessments of individual stressors, which typically overestimate risk or cumulative exposures. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Quantitative Relationship Between Cumulative Risk Alleles Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoru Kodama

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Many epidemiological studies have assessed the genetic risk of having undiagnosed or of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM using several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs based on findings of genome-wide association studies (GWAS. However, the quantitative association of cumulative risk alleles (RAs of such SNPs with T2DM risk has been unclear. The aim of this meta-analysis is to review the strength of the association between cumulative RAs and T2DM risk. Systematic literature searches were conducted for cross-sectional or longitudinal studies that examined odds ratios (ORs for T2DM in relation to genetic profiles. Logarithm of the estimated OR (log OR of T2DM for 1 increment in RAs carried (1-ΔRA in each study was pooled using a random-effects model. There were 46 eligible studies that included 74,880 cases among 249,365 participants. In 32 studies with a cross-sectional design, the pooled OR for T2DM morbidity for 1-ΔRA was 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13–1.19. In 15 studies that had a longitudinal design, the OR for incident T2DM was 1.10 (95% CI, 1.08–1.13. There was large heterogeneity in the magnitude of log OR (P < 0.001 for both cross-sectional studies and longitudinal studies. The top 10 commonly used genes significantly explained the variance in the log OR (P = 0.04 for cross-sectional studies; P = 0.006 for longitudinal studies. The current meta-analysis indicated that carrying 1-ΔRA in T2DM-associated SNPs was associated with a modest risk of prevalent or incident T2DM, although the heterogeneity in the used genes among studies requires us to interpret the results with caution.

  14. An exposure-based framework for grouping pollutants for a cumulative risk assessment approach: case study of indoor semi-volatile organic compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournier, Kevin; Glorennec, Philippe; Bonvallot, Nathalie

    2014-04-01

    Humans are exposed to a large number of contaminants, many of which may have similar health effects. This paper presents a framework for identifying pollutants to be included in a cumulative risk assessment approach. To account for the possibility of simultaneous exposure to chemicals with common toxic modes of action, the first step of the traditional risk assessment process, i.e. hazard identification, is structured in three sub-steps: (1a) Identification of pollutants people are exposed to, (1b) identification of effects and mechanisms of action of these pollutants, (1c) grouping of pollutants according to similarity of their mechanism of action and health effects. Based on this exposure-based grouping we can derive "multi-pollutant" toxicity reference values, in the "dose-response assessment" step. The approach proposed in this work is original in that it is based on real exposures instead of a limited number of pollutants from a unique chemical family, as traditionally performed. This framework is illustrated by the case study of semi-volatile organic compounds in French dwellings, providing insights into practical considerations regarding the accuracy of the available toxicological information. This case study illustrates the value of the exposure-based approach as opposed to the traditional cumulative framework, in which chemicals with similar health effects were not always included in the same chemical class. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The excess risk of major osteoporotic fractures in hypothyroidism is driven by cumulative hyperthyroid as opposed to hypothyroid time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Jørgensen, Henrik L; Laulund, Anne Sofie

    2015-01-01

    was not associated with an increased risk of hip fracture (HR 0.90; 95% CI, 0.80 to 1.02) or major osteoporotic fractures (HR 0.97; 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.05), nor was subsequent thyroxine prescription predictive of increased risk of fractures. The number of subsequent 6-month periods with low TSH-suggesting excessive...

  16. Integrating Etiological Models of Social Anxiety and Depression in Youth: Evidence for a Cumulative Interpersonal Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epkins, Catherine C.; Heckler, David R.

    2011-01-01

    Models of social anxiety and depression in youth have been developed separately, and they contain similar etiological influences. Given the high comorbidity of social anxiety and depression, we examine whether the posited etiological constructs are a correlate of, or a risk factor for, social anxiety and/or depression at the symptom level and the…

  17. An Ecological Risk Model for Early Childhood Anxiety: The Importance of Early Child Symptoms and Temperament

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mian, Nicholas D.; Wainwright, Laurel; Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J.; Carter, Alice S.

    2011-01-01

    Childhood anxiety is impairing and associated with later emotional disorders. Studying risk factors for child anxiety may allow earlier identification of at-risk children for prevention efforts. This study applied an ecological risk model to address how early childhood anxiety symptoms, child temperament, maternal anxiety and depression symptoms,…

  18. Early Menarche and Ischemic Stroke Risk Among Postmenopausal Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Chen Hsieh

    2010-03-01

    Conclusion: Our study provides strong evidence that a significant joint protective effect was observed for patients who undergo early menarche, have longer estrogen exposure and no history of hypertension or diabetes mellitus on the risk of ischemic stroke.

  19. Early menarche is associated with increased risk of asthma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lieberoth, Sofie; Gade, Elisabeth; Kyvik, Kirsten Ohm

    2015-01-01

    in girls with early menarche compared to girls without early menarche (7.4 vs. 4.5%), OR = 1.71 (1.31-2.22), p increased by 8% (1-15%), p = 0...... in discordant monozygotic and dizygotic twins. CONCLUSION: Early menarche is associated with increased risk of asthma among Danish female twins independently of BMI, age, physical activity, educational level and smoking. Results indicate a complex relationship possibly mediated through innate and non...

  20. The cumulative impact of physical activity, sleep duration, and television time on adolescent obesity: 2011 Youth Risk Behavior Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurson, Kelly R; Lee, Joey A; Eisenmann, Joey C

    2015-03-01

    Physical activity (PA), television time (TV), and sleep duration (SLP) are considered individual risk factors for adolescent obesity. Our aim was to investigate the concurrent influence of meeting PA, SLP, and TV recommendations on adolescent obesity utilizing 2011 Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey (YRBSS) data. Subjects included 9589 (4874 females) high school students. PA, SLP, and TV were categorized utilizing established national recommendations and youth were cross-tabulated into 1 of 8 groups based on meeting or not meeting each recommendation. Logistic models were used to examine the odds of obesity for each group. Youth meeting the PA recommendation were not at increased odds of obesity, regardless of SLP or TV status. However, not meeting any single recommendation, in general, led to increased odds of not meeting the other two. In boys, 11.8% met all recommendations while 14.1% met 0 recommendations. In girls, only 5.0% met all recommendations while 17.8% met none. Boys and girls not meeting any of the recommendations were 4.0 and 3.8 times more likely to be obese compared with their respective referent groups. Further research considering the simultaneous influence these risk factors may have on obesity and on one another is warranted.

  1. A Case Study Application of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) and Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) Frameworks to Facilitate the Integration of Human Health and Ecological End Points for Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to apportion exposures and integrate risk from multiple stressors. While CSMs may encompass multiple species, evaluating end points across taxa can be challenging due to data availability an...

  2. Are all risks equal? Early experiences of poverty-related risk and children's functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Amanda L; Raver, C Cybele

    2014-06-01

    Using cumulative risk and latent class analysis (LCA) models, we examined how exposure to deep poverty (income-to-needs ratio risks (i.e., single-parent household, residential crowding, caregiver depression, and multiple life stressors) in preschool is related to children's future difficulty in school in a longitudinal sample of 602 Head Start-enrolled, low-income families. Results from the LCA revealed 4 risk profiles: low risk, deep poverty and single, single and stressed, and deep poverty and crowded household. Tests of measurement invariance across racial/ethnic groups established that, although patterns of risk are similar across groups (i.e., risks covary in the same way), the prevalence of risk profiles differs. African American families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and single" profile while Latino and White families were overrepresented in the "deep poverty and crowded" profile. Finally, children's third grade functioning in 3 domains (i.e., academic performance, behavior problems, and self-regulatory skills) was predicted using a cumulative risk index and LCA-identified risk profiles. Both approaches demonstrated that children who experienced higher levels of risk in preschool had worse school performance than children with low levels of risk. However, LCA also revealed that children who experienced "single and stressed" family settings had more behavior problems than low-risk children while children who experienced "deep poverty and crowded" family settings had worse academic performance. The results indicate that all risks are not equal for children's development and highlight the utility of LCA for tailoring intervention efforts to best meet the needs of target populations. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved

  3. Early Interventions for At-Risk Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huxman, Frankie; Klassen, Eydie; Koontz, Barbara; Nottingham, Cheryl; Vierthaler, Charlene

    This is a report on a school-wide ethnographic study of intervention strategies for at-risk students in kindergarten through second grade. A group of 5 teachers from an elementary school of approximately 250 students in a Midwest community of about 18,000 people (2 first-grade teachers, 2 second-grade teachers, and 1 music teacher) comprised the…

  4. Cumulative trauma disorders in the upper extremities: reliability of the postural and repetitive risk-factors index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, C P; Harburn, K L; Kramer, J F

    1997-08-01

    This study addresses test-retest reliability of the Postural and Repetitive Risk-Factors Index (PRRI) for work-related upper body injuries. This assessment was developed by the present authors. A repeated measures design was used to assess the test-retest reliability of a videotaped work-site assessment of subjects' movements. Ten heavy users of video display terminals (VDTs) from a local banking industry participated in the study. The 10 subjects' movements were videotaped for 2 hours on each of 2 separate days, while working on-site at their VDTs. The videotaped assessment, which utilized known postural risk factors for developing musculoskeletal disorder, pain, and discomfort in heavy VDT users (ie, repetitiveness, awkward and static postures, and contraction time), was called the PRRI. The videotaped movement assessments were subsequently analyzed in 15-minute sessions (five sessions per 2-hour videotape, which produced a total of 10 sessions over the 2 testing days), and each session was chosen randomly from the videotape. The subjects' movements were given a postural risk score according to the criteria in the PRRI. Each subject was therefore tested a total of 10 times (ie, 10 sessions), over two days. The maximum PRRI score for both sides of the body was 216 points. Reliability coefficients (RCs) for the PRRI scores were calculated, and the reliability of any one session met the minimum criterion for excellent reliability, which was .75. A two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) confirmed that there was no statistically significant difference between sessions (p < .05). Calculations using the standard error of measurement (SEM) indicated that an individual tested once, on one day and with a PRRI score of 25, required a change of at least 8 points in order to be confident that a true change in score had occurred. The significant results from the reliability tests indicated that the PRRI was a reliable measurement tool that could be used by occupational health

  5. Cumulative risk effect of household dysfunction for child maltreatment after intensive intervention of the child protection system in Japan: a longitudinal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohashi, Hirotsuna; Wada, Ichiro; Yamaoka, Yui; Nakajima-Yamaguchi, Ryoko; Ogai, Yasukazu; Morita, Nobuaki

    2018-04-20

    Building an effective casework system for child maltreatment is a global issue. We estimated the effect of household dysfunction (i.e., interparental violence, caregiver mental health problems, and caregiver substance abuse) on child maltreatment to understand how to advance the current framework of child welfare. The sample comprised 759 children (1- to 17-year-old; mean age was 10.6; 404 boys and 355 girls) placed in temporary custody units (one of the strongest intervention of the Japanese child protection system). Caseworkers from 180 units across 43 prefectures completed questionnaires on children and their family and were asked whether a child maltreatment report had been made after cancelation of custody in a 15-month follow-up period. The relations of household dysfunction and maltreatment reports were assessed using the Cox proportional hazard model. About half (48.4%) of the children had been placed in the unit because of maltreatment, and 88.3% had a history of victimization. Seventy-six cases had maltreatment reports after cancelation. We entered household dysfunction variables individually into the model, and each had a significant relationship with maltreatment reports (hazard ratios for interparental violence, caregiver mental health problem, and substance abuse were 1.69, 1.69, and 2.19, respectively) after covariate adjustment. When treating these three variables as cumulative risk score model of household dysfunction, the hazard ratio increased with increasing number of score (1.96 for score two; 2.35 for score three; score 0 as reference). Greater household dysfunction score is a risk of maltreatment after intensive intervention. It is imperative to construct systems facilitating cooperation between child and adult service sectors and to deliver seamless services to children and families. Our findings provide child protect services with risk-stratified interventions for children at victimization risk and promote adult-focused services to be

  6. Cumulative increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus with increasing triglyceride glucose index in normal-weight people: The Rural Chinese Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ming; Wang, Bingyuan; Liu, Yu; Sun, Xizhuo; Luo, Xinping; Wang, Chongjian; Li, Linlin; Zhang, Lu; Ren, Yongcheng; Zhao, Yang; Zhou, Junmei; Han, Chengyi; Zhao, Jingzhi; Hu, Dongsheng

    2017-03-01

    Risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increased in metabolically obese but normal-weight people. However, we have limited knowledge of how to prevent T2DM in normal-weight people. We aimed to evaluate the association between triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and incident T2DM among normal-weight people in rural China. We included data from 5706 people with normal body mass index (BMI) (18.5-23.9 kg/m 2 ) without baseline T2DM in a rural Chinese cohort followed for a median of 6.0 years. A Cox proportional-hazard model was used to assess the risk of incident T2DM by quartiles of TyG index and difference in TyG index between follow-up and baseline (TyG-D), estimating hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A generalized additive plot was used to show the nonparametric smoothed exposure-response association between risk of T2DM and TyG index as a continuous variable. TyG was calculated as ln [fasting triglyceride level (mg/dl) × fasting plasma glucose level (mg/dl)/2]. Risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartiles 2, 3 and 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG index (adjusted HR [aHR] 2.48 [95% CI 1.20-5.11], 3.77 [1.83-7.79], and 5.30 [2.21-12.71], P trend  index). Risk of incident T2DM was increased with quartile 4 versus quartile 1 of TyG-D (aHR 3.91 [2.22-6.87]). The results were consistent when analyses were restricted to participants without baseline metabolic syndrome and impaired fasting glucose level. The generalized additive plot showed cumulative increased risk of T2DM with increasing TyG index. Risk of incident T2DM is increased with increasing TyG index among rural Chinese people, so the index might be an important indicator for identifying people at high risk of T2DM.

  7. Early Risk Factors of Overweight Developmental Trajectories during Middle Childhood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura E Pryor

    Full Text Available Research is needed to identify early life risk factors associated with different developmental paths leading to overweight by adolescence.To model heterogeneity in overweight development during middle childhood and identify factors associated with differing overweight trajectories.Data was drawn from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (QLSCD; 1998-2010. Trained research assistants measured height and weight according to a standardized protocol and conducted yearly home interviews with the child's caregiver (mother in 98% of cases. Information on several putative early life risk factors for the development of overweight were obtained, including factors related to the child's perinatal, early behavioral family and social environment. Group-based trajectories of the probability of overweight (6-12 years were identified with a semiparametric method (n=1678. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify early risk factors (5 months- 5 years associated with each trajectory.Three trajectories of overweight were identified: "early-onset overweight" (11.0 %, "late-onset overweight" (16.6% and "never overweight" (72.5%. Multinomial analyses indicated that children in the early and late-onset group, compared to the never overweight group, had 3 common types of risk factors: parental overweight, preschool overweight history, and large size for gestational age. Maternal overprotection (OR= 1.12, CI: 1.01-1.25, short nighttime sleep duration (OR=1.66, CI: 1.07-2.57, and immigrant status (OR=2.01, CI: 1.05-3.84 were factors specific to the early-onset group. Finally, family food insufficiency (OR=1.81, CI: 1.00-3.28 was weakly associated with membership in the late-onset trajectory group.The development of overweight in childhood follows two different trajectories, which have common and distinct risk factors that could be the target of early preventive interventions.

  8. Early Risk Factors of Overweight Developmental Trajectories during Middle Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryor, Laura E.; Brendgen, Mara; Tremblay, Richard E.; Pingault, Jean-Baptiste; Liu, Xuecheng; Dubois, Lise; Touchette, Evelyne; Falissard, Bruno; Boivin, Michel; Côté, Sylvana M.

    2015-01-01

    Background Research is needed to identify early life risk factors associated with different developmental paths leading to overweight by adolescence. Objectives To model heterogeneity in overweight development during middle childhood and identify factors associated with differing overweight trajectories. Methods Data was drawn from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (QLSCD; 1998-2010). Trained research assistants measured height and weight according to a standardized protocol and conducted yearly home interviews with the child’s caregiver (mother in 98% of cases). Information on several putative early life risk factors for the development of overweight were obtained, including factors related to the child’s perinatal, early behavioral family and social environment. Group-based trajectories of the probability of overweight (6-12 years) were identified with a semiparametric method (n=1678). Logistic regression analyses were used to identify early risk factors (5 months- 5 years) associated with each trajectory. Results Three trajectories of overweight were identified: “early-onset overweight” (11.0 %), “late-onset overweight” (16.6%) and “never overweight” (72.5%). Multinomial analyses indicated that children in the early and late-onset group, compared to the never overweight group, had 3 common types of risk factors: parental overweight, preschool overweight history, and large size for gestational age. Maternal overprotection (OR= 1.12, CI: 1.01-1.25), short nighttime sleep duration (OR=1.66, CI: 1.07-2.57), and immigrant status (OR=2.01, CI: 1.05-3.84) were factors specific to the early-onset group. Finally, family food insufficiency (OR=1.81, CI: 1.00-3.28) was weakly associated with membership in the late-onset trajectory group. Conclusions The development of overweight in childhood follows two different trajectories, which have common and distinct risk factors that could be the target of early preventive interventions. PMID

  9. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.; Nolty, Robert

    1990-01-01

    Overflow and underflow in sums prevented. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program, CUMPOIS, one of two computer programs that make calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines cumulative Poisson distribution, used to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and cdf for X (sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Written in C.

  10. Cumulative effects analysis of the water quality risk of herbicides used for site preparation in the Central North Island, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dan Neary; Brenda R. Baillie

    2016-01-01

    Herbicide use varies both spatially and temporally within managed forests. While information exists on the effects of herbicide use on water quality at the site and small catchment scale, little is known about the cumulative effects of herbicide use at the landscape scale. A cumulative effects analysis was conducted in the upper Rangitaiki catchment (118,345...

  11. Early trauma and increased risk for physical aggression during adulthood: the moderating role of MAOA genotype.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Frazzetto

    Full Text Available Previous research has reported that a functional polymorphism in the monoamine oxidase A (MAOA gene promoter can moderate the association between early life adversity and increased risk for violence and antisocial behavior. In this study of a combined population of psychiatric outpatients and healthy volunteers (N = 235, we tested the hypothesis that MAOA genotype moderates the association between early traumatic life events (ETLE experienced during the first 15 years of life and the display of physical aggression during adulthood, as assessed by the Aggression Questionnaire. An ANOVA model including gender, exposure to early trauma, and MAOA genotype as between-subjects factors showed significant MAOAxETLE (F(1,227 = 8.20, P = 0.005 and genderxMAOAxETLE (F(1,227 = 7.04, P = 0.009 interaction effects. Physical aggression scores were higher in men who had experienced early traumatic life events and who carried the low MAOA activity allele (MAOA-L. We repeated the analysis in the subgroup of healthy volunteers (N = 145 to exclude that the observed GxE interactions were due to the inclusion of psychiatric patients in our sample and were not generalizable to the population at large. The results for the subgroup of healthy volunteers were identical to those for the entire sample. The cumulative variance in the physical aggression score explained by the ANOVA effects involving the MAOA polymorphism was 6.6% in the entire sample and 12.1% in the sub-sample of healthy volunteers. Our results support the hypothesis that, when combined with exposure to early traumatic life events, low MAOA activity is a significant risk factor for aggressive behavior during adulthood and suggest that the use of dimensional measures focusing on behavioral aspects of aggression may increase the likelihood of detecting significant gene-by-environment interactions in studies of MAOA-related aggression.

  12. The Cumulative Effect of Gene-Gene and Gene-Environment Interactions on the Risk of Prostate Cancer in Chinese Men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Prostate cancer (PCa is a multifactorial disease involving complex genetic and environmental factors interactions. Gene-gene and gene-environment interactions associated with PCa in Chinese men are less studied. We explored the association between 36 SNPs and PCa in 574 subjects from northern China. Body mass index (BMI, smoking, and alcohol consumption were determined through self-administered questionnaires in 134 PCa patients. Then gene-gene and gene-environment interactions among the PCa-associated SNPs were analyzed using the generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (GMDR and logistic regression methods. Allelic and genotypic association analyses showed that six variants were associated with PCa and the cumulative effect suggested men who carried any combination of 1, 2, or ≥3 risk genotypes had a gradually increased PCa risk (odds ratios (ORs = 1.79–4.41. GMDR analysis identified the best gene-gene interaction model with scores of 10 for both the cross-validation consistency and sign tests. For gene-environment interactions, rs6983561 CC and rs16901966 GG in individuals with a BMI ≥ 28 had ORs of 7.66 (p = 0.032 and 5.33 (p = 0.046, respectively. rs7679673 CC + CA and rs12653946 TT in individuals that smoked had ORs of 2.77 (p = 0.007 and 3.11 (p = 0.024, respectively. rs7679673 CC in individuals that consumed alcohol had an OR of 4.37 (p = 0.041. These results suggest that polymorphisms, either individually or by interacting with other genes or environmental factors, contribute to an increased risk of PCa.

  13. Early life exposures and the risk of adult glioma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anic, Gabriella M; Madden, Melissa H; Sincich, Kelly; Thompson, Reid C; Nabors, L Burton; Olson, Jeffrey J; LaRocca, Renato V; Browning, James E; Pan, Edward; Egan, Kathleen M

    2013-09-01

    Exposure to common infections in early life may stimulate immune development and reduce the risk for developing cancer. Birth order and family size are proxies for the timing of exposure to childhood infections with several studies showing a reduced risk of glioma associated with a higher order of birth (and presumed younger age at infection). The aim of this study was to examine whether birth order, family size, and other early life exposures are associated with the risk of glioma in adults using data collected in a large clinic-based US case-control study including 889 glioma cases and 903 community controls. A structured interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on family structure, childhood exposures and other potential risk factors. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between early life factors and glioma risk. Persons having any siblings were at significantly lower risk for glioma when compared to those reporting no siblings (OR=0.64; 95% CI 0.44-0.93; p=0.020). Compared to first-borns, individuals with older siblings had a significantly lower risk (OR=0.75; 95% CI 0.61-0.91; p=0.004). Birth weight, having been breast fed in infancy, and season of birth were not associated with glioma risk. The current findings lend further support to a growing body of evidence that early exposure to childhood infections reduces the risk of glioma onset in children and adults.

  14. Vitamin D and calcium intake and risk of early menopause.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purdue-Smithe, Alexandra C; Whitcomb, Brian W; Szegda, Kathleen L; Boutot, Maegan E; Manson, JoAnn E; Hankinson, Susan E; Rosner, Bernard A; Troy, Lisa M; Michels, Karin B; Bertone-Johnson, Elizabeth R

    2017-06-01

    Background: Early menopause, defined as the cessation of ovarian function before the age of 45 y, affects ∼10% of women and is associated with higher risk of cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, and other conditions. Few modifiable risk factors for early menopause have been identified, but emerging data suggest that high vitamin D intake may reduce risk. Objective: We evaluated how intakes of vitamin D and calcium are associated with the incidence of early menopause in the prospective Nurses' Health Study II (NHS2). Design: Intakes of vitamin D and calcium from foods and supplements were measured every 4 y with the use of a food-frequency questionnaire. Cases of incident early menopause were identified from all participants who were premenopausal at baseline in 1991; over 1.13 million person-years, 2041 women reported having natural menopause before the age of 45 y. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate relations between intakes of vitamin D and calcium and incident early menopause while accounting for potential confounding factors. Results: After adjustment for age, smoking, and other factors, women with the highest intake of dietary vitamin D (quintile median: 528 IU/d) had a significant 17% lower risk of early menopause than women with the lowest intake [quintile median: 148 IU/d; HR: 0.83 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.95); P -trend = 0.03]. Dietary calcium intake in the highest quintile (median: 1246 mg/d) compared with the lowest (median: 556 mg/d) was associated with a borderline significantly lower risk of early menopause (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76, 1.00; P -trend = 0.03). Associations were stronger for vitamin D and calcium from dairy sources than from nondairy dietary sources, whereas high supplement use was not associated with lower risk. Conclusions: Findings suggest that high intakes of dietary vitamin D and calcium may be modestly associated with a lower risk of early menopause. Further studies evaluating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, other

  15. EARLY LIFE RISKS, ANTISOCIAL TENDENCIES, AND PRETEEN DELINQUENCY*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staff, Jeremy; Whichard, Corey; Siennick, Sonja; Maggs, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Early age-of-onset delinquency and substance use confer a major risk for continued criminality, alcohol and drug abuse, and other serious difficulties throughout the life course. Our objective is to examine the developmental roots of preteen delinquency and substance use. Using nationally representative longitudinal data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study (n = 13,221), we examine the influence of early childhood developmental and family risks on latent pathways of antisocial tendencies from ages 3 to 7, and the influence of those pathways on property crime and substance use by age 11. We identified a normative, non-antisocial pathway; a pathway marked by oppositional behavior and fighting; a pathway marked by impulsivity and inattention; and a rare pathway characterized by a wide range of antisocial tendencies. Children with developmental and family risks that emerged by age 3—specifically difficult infant temperament, low cognitive ability, weak parental closeness, and disadvantaged family background—face increased odds of antisocial tendencies. There is minimal overlap between the risk factors for early antisocial tendencies and those for preteen delinquency. Children on an antisocial pathway are more likely to engage in preteen delinquency and substance use by age 11, even after accounting for early life risk factors. PMID:26900167

  16. Early menarche, nulliparity and the risk for premature and early natural menopause.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Gita D; Pandeya, Nirmala; Dobson, Annette J; Chung, Hsin-Fang; Anderson, Debra; Kuh, Diana; Sandin, Sven; Giles, Graham G; Bruinsma, Fiona; Hayashi, Kunihiko; Lee, Jung Su; Mizunuma, Hideki; Cade, Janet E; Burley, Victoria; Greenwood, Darren C; Goodman, Alissa; Simonsen, Mette Kildevæld; Adami, Hans-Olov; Demakakos, Panayotes; Weiderpass, Elisabete

    2017-03-01

    Are parity and the timing of menarche associated with premature and early natural menopause? Early menarche (≤11 years) is a risk factor for both premature menopause (final menstrual period, FMP menopause (FMP 40-44 years), a risk that is amplified for nulliparous women. Women with either premature or early menopause face an increased risk of chronic conditions in later life and of early death. Findings from some studies suggest that early menarche and nulliparity are associated with early menopause, however overall the evidence is mixed. Much of the evidence for a direct relationship is hampered by a lack of comparability across studies, failure to adjust for confounding factors and inadequate statistical power. This pooled study comprises 51 450 postmenopausal women from nine observational studies in the UK, Scandinavia, Australia and Japan that contribute to the International collaboration for a Life course Approach to reproductive health and Chronic disease Events (InterLACE). Age at menarche (categorized as ≤11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 or more years) and parity (categorized as no children, one child and two or more children) were exposures of interest. Age at FMP was confirmed by at least 12 months of cessation of menses where this was not the result of an intervention (such as surgical menopause due to bilateral oophorectomy or hysterectomy) and categorized as premature menopause (FMP before age 40), early menopause (FMP 40-44 years), 45-49 years, 50-51 years, 52-53 years and 54 or more years. We used multivariate multinomial logistic regression models to estimate relative risk ratio (RRR) and 95% CI for associations between menarche, parity and age at FMP adjusting for within-study correlation. The median age at FMP was 50 years (interquartile range 48-53 years), with 2% of the women experiencing premature menopause and 7.6% early menopause. Women with early menarche (≤11 years, compared with 12-13 years) were at higher risk of premature menopause (RRR 1

  17. Risk of fatal cerebrovascular accidents after external beam radiation therapy for early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swisher-McClure, Samuel; Mitra, Nandita; Lin, Alexander; Ahn, Peter; Wan, Fei; O'Malley, Bert; Weinstein, Gregory S; Bekelman, Justin E

    2014-05-01

    This study compared the risk of fatal cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs) in patients with early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer receiving surgery or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Using a competing risks survival analysis, we compared the risk of death because of CVA among patients with early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer receiving surgery or EBRT in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The cumulative incidence of fatal CVA at 15 years was higher in patients receiving EBRT (2.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3% to 3.4%) compared to surgery (1.5%; 95% CI, 0.8% to 2.3%; p = .024). In multivariable competing risks regression models, EBRT remained associated with an increased risk of fatal CVA compared to surgery (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.75; 95% CI, 1.04-2.96; p = .037). Treatment for early-stage glottic laryngeal cancer with EBRT was associated with a small increase in the risk of late fatal CVA events relative to surgery. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Predicting Readmission at Early Hospitalization Using Electronic Clinical Data: An Early Readmission Risk Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabak, Ying P; Sun, Xiaowu; Nunez, Carlos M; Gupta, Vikas; Johannes, Richard S

    2017-03-01

    Identifying patients at high risk for readmission early during hospitalization may aid efforts in reducing readmissions. We sought to develop an early readmission risk predictive model using automated clinical data available at hospital admission. We developed an early readmission risk model using a derivation cohort and validated the model with a validation cohort. We used a published Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score as an aggregated measure of clinical severity at admission and the number of hospital discharges in the previous 90 days as a measure of disease progression. We then evaluated the administrative data-enhanced model by adding principal and secondary diagnoses and other variables. We examined the c-statistic change when additional variables were added to the model. There were 1,195,640 adult discharges from 70 hospitals with 39.8% male and the median age of 63 years (first and third quartile: 43, 78). The 30-day readmission rate was 11.9% (n=142,211). The early readmission model yielded a graded relationship of readmission and the Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score and the number of previous discharges within 90 days. The model c-statistic was 0.697 with good calibration. When administrative variables were added to the model, the c-statistic increased to 0.722. Automated clinical data can generate a readmission risk score early at hospitalization with fair discrimination. It may have applied value to aid early care transition. Adding administrative data increases predictive accuracy. The administrative data-enhanced model may be used for hospital comparison and outcome research.

  19. Early childhood adversities and risk of eating disorders in women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Janne Tidselbak; Munk-Olsen, Trine; Bulik, Cynthia M

    2017-01-01

    Objective: Previous studies evaluating the association between early childhood adversities and eating disorders have yielded conflicting results. The aim of this study is to examine the association between a range of adversities and risk of anorexia nervosa (AN), bulimia nervosa (BN), and eating...

  20. Early Onset Childhood Obesity and Risk of Metabolic Syndrome

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    This podcast features Lorena Pacheco, a doctoral student at the University of California San Diego and one of the winners of PCD's 2017 Student Research Paper Contest. Lorena answers questions about her winning research, which focuses on the relationship between early onset obesity as a risk factor for increased metabolic syndrome in Chilean children.

  1. Editorial: The effects of early trauma and deprivation on human development - from measuring cumulative risk to characterizing specific mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeanah, Charles H; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund J S

    2016-10-01

    Science is not a linear process of accumulating knowledge. To the contrary, progress in understanding is most likely to occur, especially in less 'mature' disciplines, when healthy debate between opposing points of view create a dialectic in which thesis and antithesis force a new synthesis. In developmental psychopathology, such tension between opposing schools of thought continue to play a vital role in driving discovery across a wide range of topics. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

  2. Early dementia diagnosis and the risk of suicide and euthanasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draper, Brian; Peisah, Carmelle; Snowdon, John; Brodaty, Henry

    2010-01-01

    Diagnosis of dementia is occurring earlier, and much research concerns the identification of predementia states and the hunt for biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease. Reports of suicidal behavior and requests for euthanasia in persons with dementia may be increasing. We performed a selective literature review of suicide risk in persons with dementia and the ethical issues associated with euthanasia in this population. In the absence of any effective treatments for Alzheimer's disease or other types of dementia, there is already evidence that persons with mild cognitive change and early dementia are at risk of suicidal behavior, often in the context of comorbid depression. The ensuing clinical, ethical, and legal dilemmas associated with physician-assisted suicide and euthanasia in the context of dementia are a subject of intense debate. By analogy, the preclinical and early diagnoses of Huntington's disease are associated with an increased risk of suicidal behavior. Thus there is the potential for a preclinical and early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (through biomarkers, neuroimaging, and clinical assessment) to result in increased suicide risk and requests for physician-assisted suicide. Although dementia specialists have long recognized the importance of a sensitive approach to conveying bad news to patients and families and the possibility of depressive reactions, suicidal behavior has not been regarded as a likely outcome. Such preconceptions will need to change, and protocols to monitor and manage suicide risk will need to be developed for this population. 2010 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Premature menopause or early menopause and risk of ischemic stroke

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocca, Walter A.; Grossardt, Brandon R.; Miller, Virginia M.; Shuster, Lynne T.; Brown, Robert D.

    2011-01-01

    Objective The general consensus has been that estrogen is invariably a risk factor for ischemic stroke (IS). We reviewed new observational studies that challenge this simple conclusion. Methods This was a review of observational studies of the association of premature or early menopause with stroke or IS published in English from 2006 through 2010. Results Three cohort studies showed an increased risk of all stroke in women who underwent bilateral oophorectomy compared with women who conserved their ovaries before age 50 years. The increased risk of stroke was reduced by hormonal therapy (HT) in one of the studies, suggesting that estrogen deprivation is involved in the association. Four additional observational studies showed an association of all stroke or IS with the early onset of menopause or with a shorter lifespan of ovarian activity. In three of the seven studies, the association was restricted to IS. Age at menopause was more important than type of menopause (natural vs induced). Conclusions The findings from seven recent observational studies challenge the consensus that estrogen is invariably a risk factor for IS and can be reconciled by a unifying timing hypothesis. We hypothesize that estrogen is protective for IS before age 50 years and may become a risk factor for IS after age 50 years or, possibly, after age 60 years. These findings are relevant to women who experienced premature or early menopause, or to women considering prophylactic bilateral oophorectomy before the onset of natural menopause. PMID:21993082

  4. Early-life family structure and microbially induced cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaser, Martin J; Nomura, Abraham; Lee, James; Stemmerman, Grant N; Perez-Perez, Guillermo I

    2007-01-01

    Cancer may follow exposure to an environmental agent after many decades. The bacterium Helicobacter pylori, known to be acquired early in life, increases risk for gastric adenocarcinoma, but other factors are also important. In this study, we considered whether early-life family structure affects the risk of later developing gastric cancer among H. pylori+ men. We examined a long-term cohort of Japanese-American men followed for 28 y, and performed a nested case-control study among those carrying H. pylori or the subset carrying the most virulent cagA+ H. pylori strains to address whether family structure predicted cancer development. We found that among the men who were H. pylori+ and/or cagA+ (it is possible to be cagA+ and H. pylori- if the H. pylori test is falsely negative), belonging to a large sibship or higher birth order was associated with a significantly increased risk of developing gastric adenocarcinoma late in life. For those with cagA+ strains, the risk of developing gastric cancer was more than twice as high (odds ratio 2.2; 95% confidence interval 1.2-4.0) among those in a sibship of seven or more individuals than in a sibship of between one and three persons. These results provide evidence that early-life social environment plays a significant role in risk of microbially induced malignancies expressing five to eight decades later, and these findings lead to new models to explain these interactions.

  5. Early childhood risk factors for rhinoconjunctivitis in adolescence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Elisabeth Soegaard; Kjaer, Henrik Fomsgaard; Eller, Esben

    2017-01-01

    the risk factors for non-allergic rhinoconjunctivitis in children finding family history of atopic diseases and gender to be of importance. The aim of this study was to investigate possible risk factors in early life for rhinoconjunctivitis, allergic as well as non-allergic, in adolescence. Methods......Background: Rhinoconjunctivitis is a global health problem and one of the most common chronic conditions in children. Development of rhinoconjunctivitis depends on both genetic and environmental factors. Many studies have investigated rhinoconjunctivitis, but only few studies have evaluated...... between early-life risk factors and the development of rhinoconjunctivitis, allergic as well as non-allergic, in adolescence. Results: Follow-up rate at 14-years was 66.2%. The prevalence of rhinoconjunctivitis was 32.8%. Family history of atopic diseases (aOR 2.25), atopic dermatitis (aOR 3.24), food...

  6. Maternal Obesity: Risks for Developmental Delays in Early Childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffany, Kathleen O'Connor; McVeigh, Katharine H; Kershaw, Trace S; Lipkind, Heather S; Ickovics, Jeannette R

    2016-02-01

    To assess the risk for neurodevelopmental delays for children of mothers who were obese (≥200 pounds) prior to pregnancy, and to characterize delays associated with maternal obesity among children referred to and found eligible to receive Early Intervention Program services. We conducted a retrospective cohort study (N = 541,816) using a population-based New York City data warehouse with linked birth and Early Intervention data. Risks for children suspected of a delay and 'significantly delayed', with two moderate or one severe delay, were calculated. Among the group of children eligible by delay for Early Intervention, analyses assessed risk for being identified with a moderate-to-severe delay across each of five functional domains as well as risks for multiple delays. Children of mothers who were obese were more likely to be suspected of a delay (adjusted RR 1.19 [CI 1.15-1.22]) and borderline association for 'significantly delayed' (adjusted RR 1.01 [CI 1.00-1.02). Among children eligible by delay, children of mothers who were obese evidenced an increased risk for moderate-to-severe cognitive (adjusted RR 1.04 [CI 1.02-1.07]) and physical (adjusted RR 1.04 [CI 1.01-1.08]) delays and for global developmental delay (adjusted RR 1.05 [CI 1.01-1.08]). Maternal obesity is associated with increased risk of developmental delay in offspring. Among children with moderate or severe delays, maternal obesity is associated with increased risk of cognitive and physical delays as well as with increased risk for global developmental delay. While causation remains uncertain, this adds to the growing body of research reporting an association between maternal obesity and neurodevelopmental delays in offspring.

  7. Risk of early surgery for Crohn's disease: implications for early treatment strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sands, Bruce E; Arsenault, Joanne E; Rosen, Michael J; Alsahli, Mazen; Bailen, Laurence; Banks, Peter; Bensen, Steven; Bousvaros, Athos; Cave, David; Cooley, Jeffrey S; Cooper, Herbert L; Edwards, Susan T; Farrell, Richard J; Griffin, Michael J; Hay, David W; John, Alex; Lidofsky, Sheldon; Olans, Lori B; Peppercorn, Mark A; Rothstein, Richard I; Roy, Michael A; Saletta, Michael J; Shah, Samir A; Warner, Andrew S; Wolf, Jacqueline L; Vecchio, James; Winter, Harland S; Zawacki, John K

    2003-12-01

    In this study we aimed to define the rate of early surgery for Crohn's disease and to identify risk factors associated with early surgery as a basis for subsequent studies of early intervention in Crohn's disease. We assembled a retrospective cohort of patients with Crohn's disease diagnosed between 1991 and 1997 and followed for at least 3 yr, who were identified in 16 community and referral-based practices in New England. Chart review was performed for each patient. Details of baseline demographic and disease features were recorded. Surgical history including date of surgery, indication, and procedure were also noted. Risk factors for early surgery (defined as major surgery for Crohn's disease within 3 yr of diagnosis, exclusive of major surgery at time of diagnosis) were identified by univariate analysis. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors. Of 345 eligible patients, 69 (20.1%) required surgery within 3 yr of diagnosis, excluding the 14 patients (4.1%) who had major surgery at the time of diagnosis. Overall, the interval between diagnosis and surgery was short; one half of all patients who required surgery underwent operation within 6 months of diagnosis. Risk factors identified by univariate analysis as significantly associated with early surgery included the following: smoking; disease of small bowel without colonic involvement; nausea and vomiting or abdominal pain on presentation; neutrophil count; and steroid use in the first 6 months. Disease localized to the colon only, blood in the stool, use of 5-aminosalicylate, and lymphocyte count were inversely associated with risk of early surgery. Logistic regression confirmed independent associations with smoking as a positive risk factor and involvement of colon without small bowel as a negative risk factor for early surgery. The rate of surgery is high in the first 3 yr after diagnosis of Crohn's disease, particularly in the first 6 months. These results suggest that

  8. Divergent Cumulative Cultural Evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Marriott, Chris; Chebib, Jobran

    2016-01-01

    Divergent cumulative cultural evolution occurs when the cultural evolutionary trajectory diverges from the biological evolutionary trajectory. We consider the conditions under which divergent cumulative cultural evolution can occur. We hypothesize that two conditions are necessary. First that genetic and cultural information are stored separately in the agent. Second cultural information must be transferred horizontally between agents of different generations. We implement a model with these ...

  9. Cumulative Psychosocial Risk is a Salient Predictor of Depressive Symptoms among Vertically HIV-Infected and HIV-Affected Adolescents at the Kenyan Coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abubakar, Amina; Van de Vijver, Fons J R; Hassan, Amin S; Fischer, Ronald; Nyongesa, Moses K; Kabunda, Beatrice; Berkley, James A; Stein, Alan; Newton, Charles R

    Little is known of mental health outcomes among vertically HIV-infected or HIV-affected adolescents in Africa. The current study set out to describe depressive symptoms and their correlates among vertically HIV-infected and HIV-affected adolescents at the Kenyan Coast. 130 adolescents (vertically HIV-infected [n = 44], HIV-affected [n = 53], and unexposed [n = 33]) and their caregivers participated in this cross-sectional study. An adapted version of the Beck Depression Inventory-11 (BDI) was administered to examine depressive symptoms in both adolescents and caregivers, together with measures of sociodemographic, medical, and anthropometric characteristics. Our analysis indicated a main effect of HIV status on mean BDI scores in HIV-infected (18.4 [SD = 8.3) and HIV-affected (16.8 [SD = 7.3]) adolescents compared to the community controls (12.0 [SD = 7.9]), F (2, 127) = 6.704, P = .002, η 2  = .095. Post hoc analysis showed that BDI scores of HIV-infected adolescents were higher than those of community controls (P HIV-affected adolescents had BDI scores that were higher than those of community controls (P = .007). However, there was no difference in BDI scores between HIV-infected and HIV-affected adolescents (P = .304). A path analytic model indicated that cumulative psychosocial risk (orphanhood, family poverty, and caregiver depressive symptoms) were positive predictors of BDI scores among adolescents, while nutritional status had a limited role. Both HIV-infected and HIV-affected adolescents are at a high risk of experiencing depressive symptoms, largely due to the multiple psychosocial risk factors in their environment. The provision of adequate psychosocial support and counseling needs to become an integral part of the care program for adolescents from families living with HIV/AIDS at the Kenyan coast and other similar settings. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  11. Risk Psychosocial Factors to School Dropout and Early Teenage Pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabián Antonio Dávila Ramírez

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To explore the frequency and weight that psychosocial risk factors predispose to outcomes of early pregnancy and scholar dropout, a descriptive review was conducted. Materials and Meth­ods: A search and review of the results reported by observational studies in the PubMed data­base indexed from July 27, 2010 until July 25, 2013 was performed, restricting the search to studies in humans, Spanish or English written, not made in countries in Africa or Asia. Search was widened to LILACS database for the years 2006 to 2013 for Latinamerican countries. For inclusion, all case-control studies comparing different types of interventions and psychosocial risk factors in adolescents were eligible. Results: The review suggests violence experienced dur­ing adolescence, sexual abuse, belonging to a low socioeconomic status, low self-esteem, eating behavior disorders, smoking, alcoholism and drug addiction, mental disorders, early initiation of sex, poor family ties, lack of access to information, and resources for family planning as main psychosocial factors related to early pregnancy and scholar dropout in adolescents. Conclusions: Both risk factors associated with pregnancy and scholar dropout were described, and interven­tions targeting the described risk factors could potentially contribute to the reduction of these outcomes were described.

  12. Breast cancer risk accumulation starts early: prevention must also.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colditz, Graham A; Bohlke, Kari; Berkey, Catherine S

    2014-06-01

    Nearly one in four breast cancers is diagnosed before the age of 50, and many early-stage premalignant lesions are present but not yet diagnosed. Therefore, we review evidence to support the strategy that breast cancer prevention efforts must begin early in life. This study follows the literature review methods and format. Exposures during childhood and adolescence affect a woman's long-term risk of breast cancer, but have received far less research attention than exposures that occur later in life. Breast tissue undergoes rapid cellular proliferation between menarche and first full-term pregnancy, and risk accumulates rapidly until the terminal differentiation that accompanies first pregnancy. Evidence on childhood diet and growth in height, and adolescent alcohol intake, among other adolescent factors is related to breast cancer risk and risk of premalignant proliferative benign lesions. Breast cancer prevention efforts will have the greatest effect when initiated at an early age and continued over a lifetime. Gaps in knowledge are identified and deserve increase attention to inform prevention.

  13. Breast cancer risk accumulation starts early – Prevention must also

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colditz, Graham A; Bohlke, Kari; Berkey, Catherine S.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Nearly 1 in 4 breast cancers is diagnosed before the age of 50, and many early-stage premalignant lesions are present but not yet diagnosed. Therefore, we review evidence to support the strategy that breast cancer prevention efforts must begin early in life. Methods Literature review Results Exposures during childhood and adolescence affect a woman’s long-term risk of breast cancer, but have received far less research attention than exposures that occur later in life. Breast tissue undergoes rapid cellular proliferation between menarche and first full-term pregnancy, and risk accumulates rapidly until the terminal differentiation that accompanies first pregnancy. Evidence on childhood diet and growth in height, and adolescent alcohol intake, among other adolescent factors are related to breast cancer risk and risk of premalignant proliferative benign lesions. Conclusion Breast cancer prevention efforts will have the greatest effect when initiated at an early age and continued over a lifetime. Gaps in knowledge are identified and deserve increase attention to inform prevention. PMID:24820413

  14. Drought Risk Identification: Early Warning System of Seasonal Agrometeorological Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalecios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

    2014-05-01

    By considering drought as a hazard, drought types are classified into three categories, namely meteorological or climatological, agrometeorological or agricultural and hydrological drought and as a fourth class the socioeconomic impacts can be considered. This paper addresses agrometeorological drought affecting agriculture within the risk management framework. Risk management consists of risk assessment, as well as a feedback on the adopted risk reduction measures. And risk assessment comprises three distinct steps, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This paper deals with the quantification and monitoring of agrometeorological drought, which constitute part of risk identification. For the quantitative assessment of agrometeorological or agricultural drought, as well as the computation of spatiotemporal features, one of the most reliable and widely used indices is applied, namely the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The computation of VHI is based on satellite data of temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatiotemporal features of drought, which are extracted from VHI are: areal extent, onset and end time, duration and severity. In this paper, a 20-year (1981-2001) time series of NOAA/AVHRR satellite data is used, where monthly images of VHI are extracted. Application is implemented in Thessaly, which is the major agricultural region of Greece characterized by vulnerable and drought-prone agriculture. The results show that every year there is a seasonal agrometeorological drought with a gradual increase in the areal extent and severity with peaks appearing usually during the summer. Drought monitoring is conducted by monthly remotely sensed VHI images. Drought early warning is developed using empirical relationships of severity and areal extent. In particular, two second-order polynomials are fitted, one for low and the other for high severity drought, respectively. The two fitted curves offer a seasonal

  15. Smoking increases the risk of early meniscus repair failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwell, Ryan; Schmitt, Laura C; Flanigan, David C; Magnussen, Robert A

    2016-05-01

    The goal of this study is to determine whether patients who smoke cigarettes at the time of surgery are at significantly increased risk of early meniscus repair failure relative to non-smokers. Retrospective chart review identified 64 current smokers within a series of 444 consecutive patients who underwent meniscus repair during a 7 years period. Fifty-two of these 64 smokers were available for follow-up and were matched by age, sex, and ACL status with non-smokers from the same cohort. Records of these 104 patients with a total of 120 meniscus repairs were reviewed to identify meniscus repair failure (defined as repeat surgery on the index meniscus) during the median 13-month (range: 3-79 months) follow-up period. The smoking and non-smoking groups were similar in age, sex, ACL status, BMI, meniscus repair technique, and meniscus involved. Meniscus repair failure occurred in 19 of the 112 menisci in 104 patients, for an overall failure risk of 17 %. Of the 19 failures, 14 occurred in 79 repaired medial menisci (18 % failure risk) and 5 occurred in 33 repaired lateral menisci (15 % failure risk). Meniscus repair failure occurred in significantly more smokers (15 failures in 56 menisci in 52 patients -27 % failure risk) than non-smokers (4 failures in 56 menisci in 52 patients -7 % failure risk) (p = 0.0076). Smoking is associated with significantly increased risk of early meniscus repair failure as defined by the incidence of repeat surgery on the index meniscus. III.

  16. Early-life family structure and microbially induced cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin J Blaser

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Cancer may follow exposure to an environmental agent after many decades. The bacterium Helicobacter pylori, known to be acquired early in life, increases risk for gastric adenocarcinoma, but other factors are also important. In this study, we considered whether early-life family structure affects the risk of later developing gastric cancer among H. pylori+ men.We examined a long-term cohort of Japanese-American men followed for 28 y, and performed a nested case-control study among those carrying H. pylori or the subset carrying the most virulent cagA+ H. pylori strains to address whether family structure predicted cancer development. We found that among the men who were H. pylori+ and/or cagA+ (it is possible to be cagA+ and H. pylori- if the H. pylori test is falsely negative, belonging to a large sibship or higher birth order was associated with a significantly increased risk of developing gastric adenocarcinoma late in life. For those with cagA+ strains, the risk of developing gastric cancer was more than twice as high (odds ratio 2.2; 95% confidence interval 1.2-4.0 among those in a sibship of seven or more individuals than in a sibship of between one and three persons.These results provide evidence that early-life social environment plays a significant role in risk of microbially induced malignancies expressing five to eight decades later, and these findings lead to new models to explain these interactions.

  17. Clinopyroxenite dikes crosscutting banded peridotites just above the metamorphic sole in the Oman ophiolite: early cumulates from the primary V3 lava

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishimaru, Satoko; Arai, Shoji; Tamura, Akihiro

    2013-04-01

    .2-0.7, respectively. Garnets, both andradite and glossular, contain high amounts of TiO2 (up to 18 wt%). The TiO2 content should be higher in the primary CPX if we consider the formation of secondary Ti-rich garnet and titanite. The La/Yb ratio, normalized to C1 chondrite (subscript CN) (McDonough and Sun, 1995), of CPX in the dikes is high (1.1-2.0) and (La/Yb)CN of calculated melt in equilibrium with the CPX is 6.0-9.6. The REE patterns differ completely from those of diopsidite dikes, (La/Yb)CN < 1, related with hydrothermal fluid (Python et al., 2007), but are similar to those of V3 lava, (La/Yb)CN ≈ 5, (Godard et al., 2003). We can judge the CPXITE dikes are cumulates from alkaline basalt based on the mineral assemblages and mineral chemistry of the dikes. Based on the similarity of the REE pattern between this CPXITE dike and V3 lava, the CPXITE dike thought to be cumulates from the primary or closely related V3 lava, filling its conduit. These dikes are the clear evidence for that the V3 magma came from outside of the Oman ophiolite after its obduction.

  18. Heart health risk factors in Punjabi early teens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Mary John

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: India is experiencing an epidemiological health transition characterized by rapid decline in nutritional and parasitic diseases (pre-transitional diseases with an alarming rise in cardiovascular diseases, mainly coronary heart disease and stroke (post-transitional diseases. Many of these risk factors manifesting themselves as diseases in adults can be found during adolescence. Aims: To determine the prevalence of risk factors of heart disease among urban high-school students aged 13-15 yrs in Ludhiana city. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study included 330 high school-going early teens aged 13-15 years using a pretested questionnaire. Details regarding food habits, physical activity, and family history were collected along with anthropometric measures and blood pressure recordings. Statistical Analysis Used: Data was analysed using frequencies and proportion. Chi-square was the test of significance. Results: The prevalence of at least one risk factor in the population was 48.5%. Family history with prevalence of at least one coronary artery disease risk factor was of 27.4%, diabetic parents 12.2%, hypertension 17.6%, and heart disease was 1.8%. Physical inactivity as a risk factor showed an overall prevalence of 73%. Nearly 50% of the students consumed some junk food every day. Only 18.2% consume 3-5 servings of fruits per day, 11.2% do not take any fruits at all. Prevalence of overweight was 11.2% and 4.6% of them were obese. Hypertension was seen in 20.1% of subjects. Conclusions: The present generation of early teens are at high risk of future cardiovascular disease and schools and society need to address these issues urgently.

  19. Risk of burnout among early career mental health professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, U; Luciano, M; Palumbo, C; Sampogna, G; Del Vecchio, V; Fiorillo, A

    2014-01-01

    Burnout is a stress-related syndrome that often affects mental health professionals (MHPs) and may have serious consequences on personal well-being as well as on the quality of provided psychiatric care. Established literature shows a high risk to develop burnout among MHPs. Few data are available on the incidence and on the clinical implications of the burnout syndrome in the early phases of MHP professional career. We confirmed the presence of burnout among early career MHPs: early career psychiatrists showed a lower sense of personal accomplishment, while non-medical MHPs tended to have more depersonalization and suffered from higher levels of depression. Specific programmes to identify the presence of the burnout syndrome and to cope with it should be taught within mental health training curricula. Burnout is a stress-related syndrome that often affects professionals working in emotionally loaded and highly interpersonal environments. Mental health professionals (MHPs) are long known to be at high risk to develop the burnout syndrome, but this has rarely been investigated in professionals in an early phase of career. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the presence of the burnout syndrome and of depressive symptoms among early career psychiatrists and 'non-medical' MHPs. One hundred MHPs (including 50 psychiatrists and 50 non-medical MHPs) were screened for the presence of burnout and depression, with the Maslach Burnout Inventory and the Beck Depression Inventory - revised, respectively. The relationships of burnout with socio-demographical and professional characteristics were also explored. We confirmed the presence of burnout among both groups of early career MHPs, but psychiatrists had a significantly higher degree of emotional exhaustion and a lower sense of personal accomplishment, while non-medical MHPs adopted more frequently depersonalization as a coping strategy and had higher scores for depression, which is associated with higher level of

  20. Body size in early life and risk of breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shawon, Md Shajedur Rahman; Eriksson, Mikael; Li, Jingmei

    2017-07-21

    Body size in early life is inversely associated with adult breast cancer (BC) risk, but it is unclear whether the associations differ by tumor characteristics. In a pooled analysis of two Swedish population-based studies consisting of 6731 invasive BC cases and 28,705 age-matched cancer-free controls, we examined the associations between body size in early life and BC risk. Self-reported body sizes at ages 7 and 18 years were collected by a validated nine-level pictogram (aggregated into three categories: small, medium and large). Odds ratios (OR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated from multivariable logistic regression models in case-control analyses, adjusting for study, age at diagnosis, age at menarche, number of children, hormone replacement therapy, and family history of BC. Body size change between ages 7 and 18 were also examined in relation to BC risk. Case-only analyses were performed to test whether the associations differed by tumor characteristics. Medium or large body size at age 7 and 18 was associated with a statistically significant decreased BC risk compared to small body size (pooled OR (95% CI): comparing large to small, 0.78 (0.70-0.86), P trend <0.001 and 0.72 (0.64-0.80), P trend <0.001, respectively). The majority of the women (~85%) did not change body size categories between age 7 and 18 . Women who remained medium or large between ages 7 and 18 had significantly decreased BC risk compared to those who remained small. A reduction in body size between ages 7 and 18 was also found to be inversely associated with BC risk (0.90 (0.81-1.00)). No significant association was found between body size at age 7 and tumor characteristics. Body size at age 18 was found to be inversely associated with tumor size (P trend  = 0.006), but not estrogen receptor status and lymph node involvement. For all analyses, the overall inferences did not change appreciably after further adjustment for adult body mass index. Our data

  1. Risk for obesity in adolescence starts in early childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shankaran, S; Bann, C; Das, A; Lester, B; Bada, H; Bauer, C R; La Gasse, L; Higgins, R D

    2011-11-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the predictive value of body mass index (BMI) at earlier ages on risk of overweight/obesity at age of 11 years. This is a longitudinal study of 907 children from birth to age of 11 years. Predictors include BMI at earlier ages and outcome is overweight/obesity status at age of 11 years. Analyses were adjusted for covariates known to affect BMI. At 11 years, 17% were overweight and 25% were obese. Children whose BMI was measured as ≥85th percentile once at preschool age had a twofold risk for overweight/obesity at 11 years of age. Risk increased by 11-fold if a child's BMI measured was noted more than once during this age. During early elementary years, if a child's BMI was>85th percentile once, risk for overweight/obesity at 11 years was fivefold and increased by 72-fold if noted more than two times. During late elementary years, if a child's BMI was>85th percentile once, risk for overweight/obesity was 26-fold and increased by 351-fold if noted more than two times. Risk of overweight/obesity at 11 years was noted with higher maternal prepregnancy weight, higher birth weight, female gender and increased television viewing. Children in higher BMI categories at young ages have a higher risk of overweight/obesity at 11 years of age. Effect size was greater for measurements taken closer to 11 years of age. Pediatricians need to identify children at-risk for adolescent obesity and initiate counseling and intervention at earlier ages.

  2. Early pregnancy vitamin D status and risk of preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzakhani, Hooman; Litonjua, Augusto A; McElrath, Thomas F; O'Connor, George; Lee-Parritz, Aviva; Iverson, Ronald; Macones, George; Strunk, Robert C; Bacharier, Leonard B; Zeiger, Robert; Hollis, Bruce W; Handy, Diane E; Sharma, Amitabh; Laranjo, Nancy; Carey, Vincent; Qiu, Weilliang; Santolini, Marc; Liu, Shikang; Chhabra, Divya; Enquobahrie, Daniel A; Williams, Michelle A; Loscalzo, Joseph; Weiss, Scott T

    2016-12-01

    Low vitamin D status in pregnancy was proposed as a risk factor of preeclampsia. We assessed the effect of vitamin D supplementation (4,400 vs. 400 IU/day), initiated early in pregnancy (10-18 weeks), on the development of preeclampsia. The effects of serum vitamin D (25-hydroxyvitamin D [25OHD]) levels on preeclampsia incidence at trial entry and in the third trimester (32-38 weeks) were studied. We also conducted a nested case-control study of 157 women to investigate peripheral blood vitamin D-associated gene expression profiles at 10 to 18 weeks in 47 participants who developed preeclampsia. Of 881 women randomized, outcome data were available for 816, with 67 (8.2%) developing preeclampsia. There was no significant difference between treatment (N = 408) or control (N = 408) groups in the incidence of preeclampsia (8.08% vs. 8.33%, respectively; relative risk: 0.97; 95% CI, 0.61-1.53). However, in a cohort analysis and after adjustment for confounders, a significant effect of sufficient vitamin D status (25OHD ≥30 ng/ml) was observed in both early and late pregnancy compared with insufficient levels (25OHD preeclampsia (FDR preeclampsia incidence in the intention-to-treat paradigm. However, vitamin D levels of 30 ng/ml or higher at trial entry and in late pregnancy were associated with a lower risk of preeclampsia. Differentially expressed vitamin D-associated transcriptomes implicated the emergence of an early pregnancy, distinctive immune response in women who went on to develop preeclampsia. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00920621. Quebec Breast Cancer Foundation and Genome Canada Innovation Network. This trial was funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. For details see Acknowledgments.

  3. Alzheimer's disease prevention: from risk factors to early intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crous-Bou, Marta; Minguillón, Carolina; Gramunt, Nina; Molinuevo, José Luis

    2017-09-12

    Due to the progressive aging of the population, Alzheimer's disease (AD) is becoming a healthcare burden of epidemic proportions for which there is currently no cure. Disappointing results from clinical trials performed in mild-moderate AD dementia combined with clear epidemiological evidence on AD risk factors are contributing to the development of primary prevention initiatives. In addition, the characterization of the long asymptomatic stage of AD is allowing the development of intervention studies and secondary prevention programmes on asymptomatic at-risk individuals, before substantial irreversible neuronal dysfunction and loss have occurred, an approach that emerges as highly relevant.In this manuscript, we review current strategies for AD prevention, from primary prevention strategies based on identifying risk factors and risk reduction, to secondary prevention initiatives based on the early detection of the pathophysiological hallmarks and intervention at the preclinical stage of the disease. Firstly, we summarize the evidence on several AD risk factors, which are the rationale for the establishment of primary prevention programmes as well as revising current primary prevention strategies. Secondly, we review the development of public-private partnerships for disease prevention that aim to characterize the AD continuum as well as serving as platforms for secondary prevention trials. Finally, we summarize currently ongoing clinical trials recruiting participants with preclinical AD or a higher risk for the onset of AD-related cognitive impairment.The growing body of research on the risk factors for AD and its preclinical stage is favouring the development of AD prevention programmes that, by delaying the onset of Alzheimer's dementia for only a few years, would have a huge impact on public health.

  4. Early Onset Childhood Obesity and Risk of Metabolic Syndrome

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2017-10-09

    This podcast features Lorena Pacheco, a doctoral student at the University of California San Diego and one of the winners of PCD’s 2017 Student Research Paper Contest. Lorena answers questions about her winning research, which focuses on the relationship between early onset obesity as a risk factor for increased metabolic syndrome in Chilean children.  Created: 10/9/2017 by Preventing Chronic Disease (PCD), National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 10/9/2017.

  5. Cumulative interpersonal traumas and social support as risk and resiliency factors in predicting PTSD and depression among inner-city women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumm, Jeremiah A; Briggs-Phillips, Melissa; Hobfoll, Stevan E

    2006-12-01

    This study represents one of the largest examinations of how child abuse, adult rape, and social support impact inner-city women (N = 777). Using retrospective self-report, the effects of interpersonal trauma were shown to be cumulative such that women who experienced either child abuse or adult rape were 6 times more likely to have probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), whereas women who experienced both child abuse and rape were 17 times more likely to have probable PTSD. High social support predicted lower PTSD severity for women who experienced both child abuse and adult rape, but not for women who reported one or none of these traumas. Results suggest that social support, when left intact, might buffer the cumulative impact of child and adult interpersonal traumas.

  6. Multicriteria Early Warning System of Enterprises against the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Korol

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of the enterprises. In the article author compares the effectiveness of multicriteria early warning system with the traditional discriminant analysis model of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. In the conducted research author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Market. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. Additionally, author has used the macroeconomic variables in developed multicriteria system. The author’s developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method.  

  7. Early detection of psychosis: finding those at clinical high risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addington, Jean; Epstein, Irvin; Reynolds, Andrea; Furimsky, Ivana; Rudy, Laura; Mancini, Barbara; McMillan, Simone; Kirsopp, Diane; Zipursky, Robert B

    2008-08-01

    In early detection work, recruiting individuals who meet the prodromal criteria is difficult. The aim of this paper was to describe the development of a research clinic for individuals who appear to be at risk of developing a psychosis and the process for educating the community and obtaining referrals. The outcome of all referrals to the clinic over a 4-year period was examined. Following an ongoing education campaign that was over inclusive in order to aid recruitment, approximately 27% of all referrals met the criteria for being at clinical high risk of psychosis. We are seeing only a small proportion of those in the community who eventually go on to develop a psychotic illness. This raises two important issues, namely how to remedy the situation, and second, the impact of this on current research in terms of sampling bias and generalizability of research findings. © 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  8. The role of cumulative physical work load in lumbar spine disease: risk factors for lumbar osteochondrosis and spondylosis associated with chronic complaints

    OpenAIRE

    Seidler, A; Bolm-Audorff, U; Heiskel, H; Henkel, N; Roth-Kuver, B; Kaiser, U; Bickeboller, R; Willingstorfer, W; Beck, W; Elsner, G

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVES—To investigate the relation with a case-control study between symptomatic osteochondrosis or spondylosis of the lumbar spine and cumulative occupational exposure to lifting or carrying and to working postures with extreme forward bending.
METHODS—From two practices and four clinics were recruited 229 male patients with radiographically confirmed osteochondrosis or spondylosis of the lumbar spine associated with chronic complaints. Of these 135 had additionally had acute lumbar disc...

  9. [Evaluation of risk factors of falls in early postmenopausal women].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahas, Eliana Aguiar Petri; Omodei, Michelle Sako; Cangussu, Luciana Mendes; Nahas-Neto, Jorge

    2013-11-01

    It was to evaluate the frequency and the risk factors of falls in early postmenopausal women. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 358 women (age: 45-65 years and amenorrhea >12 months) with time since menopause fall was identified as an unexpected unintentional change in position which causes an individual to remain in a lower level in relation to the initial position. The history of self-reported falls during the previous 24 months, and clinical and anthropometric data (body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC)) and bone densitometric measures were analyzed. For statistical analysis, c² trend test and the logistic regression method (odds ratio (OR)) were used for the comparison between groups of women with and without falls. Of the 358 women, 48.0% (172/358) had a history of falls and 17.4% (30/172) had fractures. The fall occurred indoors (at home) in 58.7% (101/172). The mean age was 53.7 ± 6.5 years, time since menopause 5.8 ± 3.5 years, BMI 28.3 ± 4.6 kg/m² and WC 89.0 ± 11.4 cm. There were differences as the occurrence of smoking and diabetes, with greater frequency among fallers vs. non-fallers, 25.6 versus 16.1% and 12.8 versus 5.9%, respectively (prisk of falls in the presence of influential variables, it was observed that risk increased with current smoking status (OR 1.93; 95%CI 1.01-3.71), whereas other clinical and anthropometric variables did not influence this risk. In early postmenopausal women there was higher frequency of falls. Current smoking was clinical indicators of risk for falls. With the recognition of factors for falling, preventive measures become important, as the orientation of abolishing smoking.

  10. Assessment of Cumulative Trauma Disorder (CTD) Risk for 3 Different Tasks Constructing and Repairing Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) Blankets, Preparing the Dough for a Pizza, and Operating the Becton-Dickinson FACSAria Flow Cytometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentzler, Marc; Kline, Martin; Palmer, Andrew; Terrone, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The Cumulative Trauma Disorder (CTD) risks for three different tasks using McCauley-Bell and Badiru's (1993) formula based on task, personal, and organizational factors were examined. For the Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) blanket task, the results showed that the task, personal, and organizational risks were at about the same level. The personal risk factors for this task were evaluated using a hypothetical female employee age 52. For the pizza dough task, it was shown that the organizational risk was particularly high, with task related factors also at quite dangerous levels. On the other hand, there was a very low level of personal risk factors, based on a female age 17. The flow cytometer task was assessed with three different participants, a11 of whom had quite disparate levels of personal risk, which slightly affected the overall CTD risk. This reveals how individual difference variables certainly need to be considered. The task and organizational risks for this task were rated at about the same moderate level. The overall CTD risk averaged across the three participants was .335, indicating some risk. Compruing across the tasks revealed that the pizza dough task created the greatest overall CTD risk by far (.568), with the MLI (.325) and flow cytometer task (.335) having some risk associated with them. Future research should look into different tasks for more of a comparison

  11. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  12. Early Gadolinium Enhancement for Determination of Area at Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hammer-Hansen, Sophia; Leung, Steve W; Hsu, Li-Yueh

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine whether early gadolinium enhancement (EGE) by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) in a canine model of reperfused myocardial infarction depicts the area at risk (AAR) as determined by microsphere blood flow analysis. BACKGROUND: It remains controver......OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine whether early gadolinium enhancement (EGE) by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) in a canine model of reperfused myocardial infarction depicts the area at risk (AAR) as determined by microsphere blood flow analysis. BACKGROUND: It remains...... requires pathological validation. METHODS: Eleven dogs underwent 2 h of coronary artery occlusion and 48 h of reperfusion before imaging at 1.5-T. EGE imaging was performed 3 min after contrast administration with coverage of the entire left ventricle. Late gadolinium enhancement imaging was performed...... on native T1 and T2 maps. The size of EGE was significantly greater than the infarct by triphenyltetrazolium chloride (44.1 ± 15.8% vs. 20.7 ± 14.4%; p gadolinium enhancement (44.1 ± 15.8% vs. 23.5 ± 12.7%; p

  13. Early-life chemical exposures and risk of metabolic syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De Long NE

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Nicole E De Long, Alison C Holloway Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada Abstract: The global prevalence of obesity has been increasing at a staggering pace, with few indications of any decline, and is now one of the major public health challenges worldwide. While obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS have historically thought to be largely driven by increased caloric intake and lack of exercise, this is insufficient to account for the observed changes in disease trends. There is now increasing evidence to suggest that exposure to synthetic chemicals in our environment may also play a key role in the etiology and pathophysiology of metabolic diseases. Importantly, exposures occurring in early life (in utero and early childhood may have a more profound effect on life-long risk of obesity and MetS. This narrative review explores the evidence linking early-life exposure to a suite of chemicals that are common contaminants associated with food production (pesticides; imidacloprid, chlorpyrifos, and glyphosate and processing (acrylamide, in addition to chemicals ubiquitously found in our household goods (brominated flame retardants and drinking water (heavy metals and changes in key pathways important for the development of MetS and obesity. Keywords: obesity, pesticides, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, heavy metals, acrylamide, endocrine-disrupting chemicals

  14. Risk estimation of radiation exposure in early pregnancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neumeister, K.; Waesser, S.

    1977-01-01

    The biomedical effects of radiation exposure (occupational, by X-ray diagnosis or examinations in nuclear medicine) to low doses on early pregnancy have been subject of a research work dealing with the dose level which, in case of exceeding, may lead to somatic damage (1.5 to 10 rem), and with the type of radiation injuries (malformations, functional disorder, cancer induction, increase in morbidity rate, genetic damage). A pilot study was the basis for the programme which will record such cases from all over the GDR. Within the scope of the health centre at the National Board of Nuclear Safety and Radiation Protection of the GDR, medical opinion on the interruption or preservation of pregnancy at its early stage, after exposure, was delivered in more than 50 cases. Exposure of the foetus was exactly determined. These children were re-investigated at the age of 1 to 3 years by applying pediatric and genetic examinations. The latter were based on clinical and biochemical methods as well as chromosome analyses. From these results, the risk of exposure in early pregnancy is estimated and adequate dose limits are suggested. In case these limits are exceeded, an interruption should be advised

  15. Global oil risks in the early 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantazzini, Dean; Höök, Mikael; Angelantoni, André

    2011-01-01

    The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other difficult to reach locations. Moreover, obtaining the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing the ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is shown to be when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry of the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one. - Highlights: ► Review of the physical background to peak oil and current oil situation. ► Economics of oil supply and demand are examined to identify imminent challenges. ► Investigation of the financial and energy transition risks associated with peak oil. ► Oil scarcity and price volatility induce certain governmental and business risks. ► General risk mitigation is vital and peak oil preparations should be undertaken.

  16. Early liver allograft dysfunction: risk factors, clinical course and outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya. G. Moysyuk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Early liver allograft dysfunction (EAD is associated with a high incidence of graft loss and patient mortality in the first 6 weeks after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT.The aim of this retrospective single-center study is to identify the risk factors of EAD and to compare the short- and long-term results in EAD and non-EAD groups.Materials and methods. The results of 213 consecutive deceased donor liver transplantations performed between December 2004 and February 2015 were included in the analysis. Indications for OLT were non-viral liver cirrhosis in 52% of cases, viral hepatitis C or B in 34 %, hepatocellular carcinoma in 8 %; retransplantations were performed in 6% of cases due to previous liver graft dysfunction. EAD was defined by Olthoff criteria (Olthoff et al., 2010.Results. Overall incidence of EAD was 41.3%, including 5.6% of primary non-function grafts (PNF, i.e. irreversible EAD. No significant differences between EAD and non-EAD groups were seen either among donors in their age, gender, cause of death, bilirubin, plasma sodium level, aminotransferases aktivity, or among the recipients in their age, gender, body mass index, MELD. Retransplantation, donor time on mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit for more than 2 days, highrisk donor category, transplant surgery duration more than 9.5 hours, and cold ischemia time (CIT > 8 hours were independent significant risk factors of EAD in a multivariate model. A 42-day mortality rates were 18.2% in EAD group (mostly due to PNF without urgent retransplantanion in 9.1%, and 0% in non-EAD group. Long-term results in EAD group were also significantly poorer: 1-, 5-, and 10-year graft survival rates were 74%, 68%, and 64%, respectively, versus 96%, 90%, and 83% in non-EAD group, Log-rank p = 0.0001.Conclusion. EAD significantly (≈ 20% decreases the short-term graft and patient survival rates. Meanwhile, a reversible EAD has no impact on long-term results

  17. CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

  18. External Validity of a Risk Stratification Score Predicting Early Distant Brain Failure and Salvage Whole Brain Radiation Therapy After Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Press, Robert H; Boselli, Danielle M; Symanowski, James T; Lankford, Scott P; McCammon, Robert J; Moeller, Benjamin J; Heinzerling, John H; Fasola, Carolina E; Burri, Stuart H; Patel, Kirtesh R; Asher, Anthony L; Sumrall, Ashley L; Curran, Walter J; Shu, Hui-Kuo G; Crocker, Ian R; Prabhu, Roshan S

    2017-07-01

    A scoring system using pretreatment factors was recently published for predicting the risk of early (≤6 months) distant brain failure (DBF) and salvage whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone. Four risk factors were identified: (1) lack of prior WBRT; (2) melanoma or breast histologic features; (3) multiple brain metastases; and (4) total volume of brain metastases external patient population. We reviewed the records of 247 patients with 388 brain metastases treated with SRS between 2010 at 2013 at Levine Cancer Institute. The Press (Emory) risk score was calculated and applied to the validation cohort population, and subsequent risk groups were analyzed using cumulative incidence. The low-risk (LR) group had a significantly lower risk of early DBF than did the high-risk (HR) group (22.6% vs 44%, P=.004), but there was no difference between the HR and intermediate-risk (IR) groups (41.2% vs 44%, P=.79). Total lesion volume externally valid, but the model was able to stratify between 2 levels (LR and not-LR [combined IR and HR]) for early (≤6 months) DBF. These results reinforce the importance of validating predictive models in independent cohorts. Further refinement of this scoring system with molecular information and in additional contemporary patient populations is warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Cumulation of light nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldin, A.M.; Bondarev, V.K.; Golovanov, L.B.

    1977-01-01

    Limit fragmentation of light nuclei (deuterium, helium) bombarded with 8,6 GeV/c protons was investigated. Fragments (pions, protons and deuterons) were detected within the emission angle 50-150 deg with regard to primary protons and within the pulse range 150-180 MeV/c. By the kinematics of collision of a primary proton with a target at rest the fragments observed correspond to a target mass upto 3 GeV. Thus, the data obtained correspond to teh cumulation upto the third order

  20. Early risk of recurrent stroke in patients with symptomatic carotid near-occlusion: Results from CAOS, a multicenter registry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Pastor, Andrés; Gil-Núñez, Antonio; Ramírez-Moreno, José María; González-Nafría, Noelia; Tejada, Javier; Moniche, Francisco; Portilla-Cuenca, Juan Carlos; Martínez-Sánchez, Patricia; Fuentes, Blanca; Gamero-García, Miguel Ángel; Alonso de Leciñana, María; Cánovas-Verge, David; Aladro, Yolanda; Parkhutik, Vera; Lago-Martín, Aida; de Arce-Borda, Ana María; Usero-Ruíz, María; Delgado-Mederos, Raquel; Pampliega, Ana; Ximenez-Carrillo, Álvaro; Bártulos-Iglesias, Mónica; Castro-Reyes, Enrique

    2017-10-01

    Background The risk of recurrent stroke among patients with symptomatic carotid near-occlusion is not well established, and management of the condition remains controversial. Symptomatic carotid near-occlusion with full collapse has been identified as a strong predictor of early recurrence. We aimed to analyze the 90-day risk of recurrent ipsilateral ischemic stroke in medically treated patients with symptomatic carotid near-occlusion. Methods We performed a multicenter, nationwide, prospective study from January 2010 to May 2016. Patients with angiography-confirmed symptomatic carotid near-occlusion were included. The primary endpoint was ipsilateral ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) within 90 days after the presenting event. For this analysis, patients who underwent revascularization within 90 days after stroke were excluded. Results The study population comprised 141 patients from 17 Spanish centers; 83 patients were treated medically. Primary endpoint occurred in eight patients, resulting in a cumulative rate of 10.6% (95% CI, 3.7-17.5). Previous history of stroke or transient ischemic attack was identified as an independent predictor for recurrence in the multivariate Cox regression analysis (HR, 4.37 [95% CI, 1.05-18.18]; p = 0.043), while the presence of full collapse was not associated with an increased risk (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.17-3.92]; p = 0.793). The risk of recurrence was also not affected by the presence of significant stenosis or occlusion of the contralateral carotid artery, or by the collateral circulation. Conclusions Patients with symptomatic carotid near-occlusion seem to have an increased risk of early ipsilateral recurrent stroke. Our results contrast with the low risk of symptomatic carotid near-occlusion reported to date. Full collapse did not increase the risk of recurrent stroke in our study.

  1. EXTERNAL VALIDATION OF THE DIABETES EARLY READMISSION RISK INDICATOR (DERRI™).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Daniel J; Recco, Dominic; Turchin, Alexander; Zhao, Huaqing; Golden, Sherita Hill

    2018-04-06

    The Diabetes Early Readmission Risk Indicator (DERRI ™ ) was previously developed and internally validated as a tool to predict the risk of all-cause readmission within 30 days of discharge (30-d readmission) of hospitalized patients with diabetes. In this study, the predictive performance of the DERRI ™ with and without additional predictors was assessed in an external sample. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with diabetes discharged from 2 academic medical centers between 1/1/2000 and 12/31/2014. We applied the previously developed DERRI ™ , which includes admission laboratory results, sociodemographics, a diagnosis of certain comorbidities, and recent discharge information, and evaluated the effect of adding metabolic indicators on predictive performance using multivariable logistic regression. Total cholesterol and A1c were selected based on clinical relevance and univariate association with 30-d readmission. Among 105,974 discharges, 19,032 (18.0%) were followed by 30-d readmission for any cause. The DERRI ™ had a C-statistic of 0.634 for 30-d readmission. Total cholesterol (TC) was the lipid parameter most strongly associated with 30-d readmission. The DERRI ™ predictors, A1c, and TC were significantly associated with 30-d readmission; however, their addition to the DERRI ™ did not significantly change model performance (C-statistic 0.643 [95% CI, 0.638-0.647], p=0.92). Performance of the DERRI ™ in this external cohort was modest but comparable to other readmission prediction models. Addition of A1c and TC to the DERRI ™ did not significantly improve performance. Although the DERRI ™ may be useful to direct resources toward diabetes patients at higher risk, better prediction is needed. DERRI = Diabetes Early Readmission Risk Indicator; TC = Total cholesterol; A1c = hemoglobin A1c; HDL-C = high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; LDL-C = low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; DKA = diabetic ketoacidosis; HHS

  2. Modeling and managing risk early in software development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briand, Lionel C.; Thomas, William M.; Hetmanski, Christopher J.

    1993-01-01

    In order to improve the quality of the software development process, we need to be able to build empirical multivariate models based on data collectable early in the software process. These models need to be both useful for prediction and easy to interpret, so that remedial actions may be taken in order to control and optimize the development process. We present an automated modeling technique which can be used as an alternative to regression techniques. We show how it can be used to facilitate the identification and aid the interpretation of the significant trends which characterize 'high risk' components in several Ada systems. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of our technique based on a comparison with logistic regression based models.

  3. CROSSER - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CROSSER, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), can be used independently of one another. CROSSER can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CROSSER calculates the point at which the reliability of a k-out-of-n system equals the common reliability of the n components. It is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The CROSSER program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CROSSER was developed in 1988.

  4. Thyroid peroxidase antibodies during early gestation and the subsequent risk of first-onset postpartum depression: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesseloo, Richard; Kamperman, Astrid M; Bergink, Veerle; Pop, Victor J M

    2018-01-01

    During the postpartum period, women are at risk for the new onset of both auto-immune thyroid disorders and depression. The presence of thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPO-ab) during early gestation is predictive for postpartum auto-immune thyroid dysfunction. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between TPO-ab status during early gestation and first-onset postpartum depression. Prospective cohort study (n = 1075) with follow-up during pregnancy up to one year postpartum. Thyroid function and TPO-ab status were measured during early gestation. Depressive symptomatology was assessed during each trimester and at four time points postpartum with the Edinburgh Depression Scale (EDS). Women with antenatal depression were not eligible for inclusion. Self-reported postpartum depression was defined with an EDS cut-off of ≥ 13. The cumulative incidence of self-reported first-onset depression in the first postpartum year was 6.3%. A positive TPO-ab status was associated with an increased risk for self-reported first-onset depression at four months postpartum (adjusted OR 3.8; 95% CI 1.3-11.6), but not at other postpartum time points. Prevalence rates of self-reported postpartum depression declined after four months postpartum in the TPO-ab positive group, but remained constant in the TPO-ab negative group. Depression was defined with a self-rating questionnaire (EDS). Women with an increased TPO-ab titer during early gestation are at increased risk for self-reported first-onset depression. The longitudinal pattern of self-reported postpartum depression in the TPO-ab positive group was similar to the typical course of postpartum TPO-ab titers changes. This suggests overlap in the etiology of first-onset postpartum depression and auto-immune thyroid dysfunction. Thyroid function should be evaluated in women with first-onset postpartum depression. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Early life factors and risk of childhood rhabdomyosarcoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anshu eShrestha

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Although little is known about etiology of childhood rhabdomyosarcoma, early life factors are suspected in the etiology. We explored this hypothesis using linked data from the California Cancer Registry and the California birth rolls. Incident cases were 359 children < 6 year old (218 embryonal, 81 alveolar, 60 others diagnosed in 1988-2008. Controls (205,173, frequency matched on birth year (1986-2007, were randomly selected from the birth rolls. We examined association of birth characteristics such as birth weight, size for gestational age, and timing of prenatal care with all-type rhabdomyosarcoma, embryonal and alveolar subtypes. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs were estimated using logistic regression. In contrast to a previous study, we observed statistically non-significant association for embryonal subtype among high birth weight (4000-5250 grams children for term births [OR (95%CI: 1.28 (0.85, 1.92] and all births adjusted for gestational age [OR (95%CI: 1.21 (0.81, 1.81]. On the other hand, statistically significant 1.7-fold increased risk of alveolar subtype (95%CI: 1.02, 2.87 was observed among children with late or no prenatal care and a 1.3-fold increased risk of all rhabdomyosarcoma subtypes among children of fathers ≥ 35 years old at child birth (95%CI: 1.00, 1.75, independent of all covariates. Our finding positive association on male sex for all rhabdomyosarcoma types is consistent with previous studies. While we did not find a convincingly positive association between high birth weight and RMS, our findings on paternal age at childbirth and prenatal care supports the hypothesis that prenatal environment modifies risk for childhood rhabdomyosarcoma.

  6. Adolescent expectations of early death predict adult risk behaviors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quynh C Nguyen

    Full Text Available Only a handful of public health studies have investigated expectations of early death among adolescents. Associations have been found between these expectations and risk behaviors in adolescence. However, these beliefs may not only predict worse adolescent outcomes, but worse trajectories in health with ties to negative outcomes that endure into young adulthood. The objectives of this study were to investigate perceived chances of living to age 35 (Perceived Survival Expectations, PSE as a predictor of suicidal ideation, suicide attempt and substance use in young adulthood. We examined the predictive capacity of PSE on future suicidal ideation/attempt after accounting for sociodemographics, depressive symptoms, and history of suicide among family and friends to more fully assess its unique contribution to suicide risk. We investigated the influence of PSE on legal and illegal substance use and varying levels of substance use. We utilized the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health initiated in 1994-95 among 20,745 adolescents in grades 7-12 with follow-up interviews in 1996 (Wave II, 2001-02 (Wave III and 2008 (Wave IV; ages 24-32. Compared to those who were almost certain of living to age 35, perceiving a 50-50 or less chance of living to age 35 at Waves I or III predicted suicide attempt and ideation as well as regular substance use (i.e., exceeding daily limits for moderate drinking; smoking ≥ a pack/day; and using illicit substances other than marijuana at least weekly at Wave IV. Associations between PSE and detrimental adult outcomes were particularly strong for those reporting persistently low PSE at both Waves I and III. Low PSE at Wave I or Wave III was also related to a doubling and tripling, respectively, of death rates in young adulthood. Long-term and wide-ranging ties between PSE and detrimental outcomes suggest these expectations may contribute to identifying at-risk youth.

  7. Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

  8. Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

  9. NEWTONP - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, NEWTONP, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. NEWTONP can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. NEWTONP calculates the probably p required to yield a given system reliability V for a k-out-of-n system. It can also be used to determine the Clopper-Pearson confidence limits (either one-sided or two-sided) for the parameter p of a Bernoulli distribution. NEWTONP can determine Bayesian probability limits for a proportion (if the beta prior has positive integer parameters). It can determine the percentiles of incomplete beta distributions with positive integer parameters. It can also determine the percentiles of F distributions and the midian plotting positions in probability plotting. NEWTONP is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. NEWTONP is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The NEWTONP program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. NEWTONP was developed in 1988.

  10. Growth of Korean preterm infants in a family-centered tradition during early infancy: the influence of health risks, maternal employment, and the sex of infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Youngmee; Sohn, Min; Lee, Sangmi

    2014-10-01

    The physical growth of mild preterm infants (maternal employment status, and the infant sex. There were four noteworthy findings on growth variation in Korean mild preterm infants during early infancy: (i) the secular trend of intrauterine growth; (ii) the cumulative adverse effects of four risk factors; (iii) the possible burden of maternal employment if insufficient support; and (iv) the possibility of the cultural favoritism to male infants regardless of the modern industrialized society. The study suggests that, in a modern society, while mild preterm infants could sustain typical fetal growth, the early postnatal growth may vary based on health risks and sociocultural circumstances related to child-bearing and -rearing practices surrounding them. © 2013 The Authors. Japan Journal of Nursing Science © 2013 Japan Academy of Nursing Science.

  11. Fuzzy set theory for cumulative trauma prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Fonseca, Daniel J.; Merritt, Thomas W.; Moynihan, Gary P.

    2001-01-01

    A widely used fuzzy reasoning algorithm was modified and implemented via an expert system to assess the potential risk of employee repetitive strain injury in the workplace. This fuzzy relational model, known as the Priority First Cover Algorithm (PFC), was adapted to describe the relationship between 12 cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs) of the upper extremity, and 29 identified risk factors. The algorithm, which finds a suboptimal subset from a group of variables based on the criterion of...

  12. The PRIMA-PIETRA Project: A Web-Based Platform for Early Autism Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Ruta, Liliana; Siracusano, Rosamaria; Tortorella, Gaetano; Boncoddo, Maria; Colombi, Costanza; Crifaci, Giulia; Billeci, Lucia; Tartarisco, Gennaro; Ferro, Marcello; Narzisi, Antonio; Muratori, Filippo; Pioggia, Giovanni

    2013-01-01

    It is well recognized that the best outcomes in autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are achieved through early diagnosis and early intervention. ASD symptoms may occur as early as 12-18 months and different instruments have been developed for early autism risk assessment under the age of 2 years. The Modified Checklist for Autism in Children (M-CHAT) is a developmental surveillance-screening instrument administered during 18- to 36-month well-child visits that was demonstrated to improve early id...

  13. Research on the Risk Early Warning Method of Material Supplier Performance in Power Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Peng; Zhang, Xi

    2018-01-01

    The early warning of supplier performance risk is still in the initial stage interiorly, and research on the early warning mechanism to identify, analyze and prevent the performance risk is few. In this paper, a new method aiming at marerial supplier performance risk in power industry is proposed, firstly, establishing a set of risk early warning indexes, Then use the ECM method to classify the indexes to form different risk grades. Then, improving Crock Ford risk quantization model by considering three indicators, including the stability of power system, economic losses and successful bid ratio to form the predictive risk grade, and ultimately using short board effect principle to form the ultimate risk grade to truly reflect the supplier performance risk. Finally, making empirical analysis on supplier performance and putting forward the counter measures and prevention strategies for different risks.

  14. Cumulative radiation effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, J.; Gray, W.M.; Watson, E.R.

    1977-01-01

    In five previous papers, the concept of Cumulative Radiation Effect (CRE) has been presented as a scale of accumulative sub-tolerance radiation damage, with a unique value of the CRE describing a specific level of radiation effect. Simple nomographic and tabular methods for the solution of practical problems in radiotherapy are now described. An essential feature of solving a CRE problem is firstly to present it in a concise and readily appreciated form, and, to do this, nomenclature has been introduced to describe schedules and regimes as compactly as possible. Simple algebraic equations have been derived to describe the CRE achieved by multi-schedule regimes. In these equations, the equivalence conditions existing at the junctions between schedules are not explicit and the equations are based on the CREs of the constituent schedules assessed individually without reference to their context in the regime as a whole. This independent evaluation of CREs for each schedule has resulted in a considerable simplification in the calculation of complex problems. The calculations are further simplified by the use of suitable tables and nomograms, so that the mathematics involved is reduced to simple arithmetical operations which require at the most the use of a slide rule but can be done by hand. The order of procedure in the presentation and calculation of CRE problems can be summarised in an evaluation procedure sheet. The resulting simple methods for solving practical problems of any complexity on the CRE-system are demonstrated by a number of examples. (author)

  15. REDUCTION OF CUMULATIVE CARDIOVASCULAR RISK IN PATIENTS WITH ARTERIAL HYPERTENSION: THE ROLE OF ANGIOTENSIN CONVERTING ENZYME INHIBITORS ACCORDING TO THE NEW EUROPEAN RECOMMENDATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Mamedov

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Conception of total cardio-vascular risk plays important role in defining tactics of arterial hypertension therapy according to the new European recommendations. Choice of antihypertensive therapy is based on meta-analysis of large clinical studies with hard end points. It is recommended to use five classes of antihypertensive drugs in mono- and combined therapy. Angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE inhibitors keep important place in the therapy of arterial hypertension accompanying with risk factors and associated diseases. Enalapril is one of the widely used ACE inhibitors, its efficiency was proved in prospective clinical studies. In high risk patients monotherapy with Enam (enalapril, Dr. Reddy’s decreases blood pressure and leads to positive metabolic changes. This results in significant risk reduction of cardio-vascular complications.

  16. REDUCTION OF CUMULATIVE CARDIOVASCULAR RISK IN PATIENTS WITH ARTERIAL HYPERTENSION: THE ROLE OF ANGIOTENSIN CONVERTING ENZYME INHIBITORS ACCORDING TO THE NEW EUROPEAN RECOMMENDATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Mamedov

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Conception of total cardio-vascular risk plays important role in defining tactics of arterial hypertension therapy according to the new European recommendations. Choice of antihypertensive therapy is based on meta-analysis of large clinical studies with hard end points. It is recommended to use five classes of antihypertensive drugs in mono- and combined therapy. Angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE inhibitors keep important place in the therapy of arterial hypertension accompanying with risk factors and associated diseases. Enalapril is one of the widely used ACE inhibitors, its efficiency was proved in prospective clinical studies. In high risk patients monotherapy with Enam (enalapril, Dr. Reddy’s decreases blood pressure and leads to positive metabolic changes. This results in significant risk reduction of cardio-vascular complications.

  17. Likelihood of early detection of breast cancer in relation to false-positive risk in life-time mammographic screening: population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otten, J D M; Fracheboud, J; den Heeten, G J; Otto, S J; Holland, R; de Koning, H J; Broeders, M J M; Verbeek, A L M

    2013-10-01

    Women require balanced, high-quality information when making an informed decision on screening benefits and harms before attending biennial mammographic screening. The cumulative risk of a false-positive recall and/or (small) screen-detected or interval cancer over 13 consecutive screening examinations for women aged 50 from the start of screening were estimated using data from the Nijmegen programme, the Netherlands. Women who underwent 13 successive screens in the period 1975-1976 had a 5.3% cumulative chance of a screen-detected cancer, with a 4.2% risk of at least one false-positive recall. The risk of being diagnosed with interval cancer was 3.7%. Two decades later, these estimates were 6.9%, 7.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The chance of detection of a small, favourable invasive breast cancer, anticipating a normal life-expectancy, rose from 2.3% to 3.7%. Extrapolation to digital screening mammography indicates that the proportion of false-positive results will rise to 16%. Dutch women about to participate in the screening programme can be reassured that the chance of false-positive recall in the Netherlands is relatively low. A new screening policy and improved mammography have increased the detection of an early screening carcinoma and lowering the risk of interval carcinoma.

  18. Individual and cumulative effect of prostate cancer risk-associated variants on clinicopathologic variables in 5,895 prostate cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kader, A Karim; Sun, Jielin; Isaacs, Sarah D; Wiley, Kathleen E; Yan, Guifang; Kim, Seong-Tae; Fedor, Helen; DeMarzo, Angelo M; Epstein, Jonathan I; Walsh, Patrick C; Partin, Alan W; Trock, Bruce; Zheng, S Lilly; Xu, Jianfeng; Isaacs, William

    2009-08-01

    More than a dozen single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been associated with prostate cancer (PCa) risk from genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Their association with PCa aggressiveness and clinicopathologic variables is inconclusive. Twenty PCa risk SNPs implicated in GWAS and fine mapping studies were evaluated in 5,895 PCa cases treated by radical prostatectomy at Johns Hopkins Hospital, where each tumor was uniformly graded and staged using the same protocol. For 18 of the 20 SNPs examined, no statistically significant differences (P > 0.05) were observed in risk allele frequencies between patients with more aggressive (Gleason scores > or =4 + 3, or stage > or =T3b, or N+) or less aggressive disease (Gleason scores < or =3 + 4, and stage < or =T2, and N0). For the two SNPs that had significant differences between more and less aggressive disease rs2735839 in KLK3 (P = 8.4 x 10(-7)) and rs10993994 in MSMB (P = 0.046), the alleles that are associated with increased risk for PCa were more frequent in patients with less aggressive disease. Since these SNPs are known to be associated with PSA levels in men without PCa diagnoses, these latter associations may reflect the enrichment of low grade, low stage cases diagnosed by contemporary disease screening with PSA. The vast majority of PCa risk-associated SNPs are not associated with aggressiveness and clinicopathologic variables of PCa. Correspondingly, they have minimal utility in predicting the risk for developing more or less aggressive forms of PCa.

  19. New Capitalism, Risk, and Subjectification in an Early Childhood Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bialostok, Steve; Kamberelis, George

    2010-01-01

    "New capitalism" has been characterized as an economic period in which insecurity, flux, and uncertainty exist in the workplace. Capitalism attempts to tame that uncertainty through risk taking. Taking risks has become what one must do with risk. Economic discourses of embracing risk--thoroughly grounded in the ideologies of neoliberalism--are…

  20. Cumulative trauma disorders: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Zaheen A; Alghadir, Ahmad H

    2017-08-03

    Cumulative trauma disorder (CTD) is a term for various injuries of the musculoskeletal and nervous systems that are caused by repetitive tasks, forceful exertions, vibrations, mechanical compression or sustained postures. Although there are many studies citing incidence of CTDs, there are fewer articles about its etiology, pathology and management. The aim of our study was to discuss the etiology, pathogenesis, prevention and management of CTDs. A literature search was performed using various electronic databases. The search was limited to articles in English language pertaining to randomized clinical trials, cohort studies and systematic reviews of CTDs. A total of 180 papers were identified to be relevant published since 1959. Out of these, 125 papers reported about its incidence and 50 about its conservative treatment. Workplace environment, same task repeatability and little variability, decreased time for rest, increase in expectations are major factors for developing CTDs. Prevention of its etiology and early diagnosis can be the best to decrease its incidence and severity. For effective management of CTDs, its treatment should be divided into Primordial, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary prevention.

  1. Cumulative radiation effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, J.; Cain, O.; Gray, W.M.

    1977-01-01

    Cumulative Radiation Effect (CRE) represents a scale of accumulative sub-tolerance radiation damage, with a unique value of the CRE describing a specific level of radiation effect. Computer calculations have been used to simplify the evaluation of problems associated with the applications of the CRE-system in radiotherapy. In a general appraisal of the applications of computers to the CRE-system, the various problems encountered in clinical radiotherapy have been categorised into those involving the evaluation of a CRE at a point in tissue and those involving the calculation of CRE distributions. As a general guide, the computer techniques adopted at the Glasgow Institute of Radiotherapeutics for the solution of CRE problems are presented, and consist basically of a package of three interactive programs for point CRE calculations and a Fortran program which calculates CRE distributions for iso-effect treatment planning. Many examples are given to demonstrate the applications of these programs, and special emphasis has been laid on the problem of treating a point in tissue with different doses per fraction on alternate treatment days. The wide range of possible clinical applications of the CRE-system has been outlined and described under the categories of routine clinical applications, retrospective and prospective surveys of patient treatment, and experimental and theoretical research. Some of these applications such as the results of surveys and studies of time optimisation of treatment schedules could have far-reaching consequences and lead to significant improvements in treatment and cure rates with the minimum damage to normal tissue. (author)

  2. HPV genotype profile in a Norwegian cohort with ASC-US and LSIL cytology with three year cumulative risk of high grade cervical neoplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lie, A K; Tropé, A; Skare, G B; Bjørge, T; Jonassen, C M; Brusegard, K; Lönnberg, S

    2018-01-01

    To explore the HPVgenotype profile in Norwegian women with ASC-US/LSIL cytology and the subsequent risk of high-grade cervical neoplasia (CIN 3+). In this observational study delayed triage of ASC-US/LSIL of 6058 women were included from 2005 to 2010. High-risk HPV detection with Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) was used and the HC2+ cases were genotyped with in-house nmPCR. Women were followed-up for histologically confirmed CIN3+ within three years of index HPV test by linkage to the screening databases at the Cancer Registry of Norway. HC2 was positive in 45% (2756/6058) of the women. Within 3years CIN3+ was diagnosed in 26% of womenrisk for CIN3+. Among older women, all 13 high-risk genotypes as single infection were associated with >20% risk of CIN3+. Further studies are necessary to risk stratify the individual genotypes to reduce the number of colposcopies in Norway. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Early formula feeding practices and their potential contribution to later obesity risk

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Tarrant, R C

    2013-01-02

    Background and Aims: Early feeding practices, including early introduction to solid foods and overfeeding, are known risk factors for childhood obesity. This study aimed to assess maternal formula feeding practices and infant formula feeding patterns, factors that are known to potentially contribute to later obesity risk. \\r\

  4. Family history of premature death and risk of early onset cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranthe, Mattis Flyvholm; Carstensen, Lisbeth; Oyen, Nina

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of a family history of premature death, cardiovascular death in particular, on the risk of early cardiovascular disease.......The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of a family history of premature death, cardiovascular death in particular, on the risk of early cardiovascular disease....

  5. The association between early menopause and risk of ischaemic heart disease: Influence of Hormone Therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Løkkegaard, Ellen Christine Leth; Andersen, Zorana Jovanovic; Heitmann, Berit Lilienthal

    2006-01-01

    Randomised clinical trials find no protection against development of ischaemic heart disease by use of Hormone Therapy (HT) after the age of 50 years. Observational studies suggest that early menopause is a risk factor for ischaemic heart disease. Yet, a clinical very relevant question is whether...... HT reduces this risk associated with early menopause....

  6. Secant cumulants and toric geometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michalek, M.; Oeding, L.; Zwiernik, P.W.

    2012-01-01

    We study the secant line variety of the Segre product of projective spaces using special cumulant coordinates adapted for secant varieties. We show that the secant variety is covered by open normal toric varieties. We prove that in cumulant coordinates its ideal is generated by binomial quadrics. We

  7. Quantifying Cost Risk Early in the Life Cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mar, B.

    2004-01-01

    A new method for analyzing life cycle cost risk on large programs is presented that responds to an increased emphasis on improving sustainability for long-term programs. This method provides better long-term risk assessment and risk management techniques. It combines standard Monte Carlo analysis of risk drivers and a new data-driven method developed by the BMDO. The approach permits quantification of risks throughout the entire life cycle without resorting to difficult to support subjective methods. The BMDO methodology is shown to be relatively straightforward to apply to a specific component or process within a project using standard technical risk assessment methods. The total impact on system is obtained using the program WBS, which allows for the capture of correlated risks shared by multiple WBS items. Once the correlations and individual component risks are captured, a Monte Carlo simulation can be run using a modeling tool such as ANALYTICA to produce the overall life cycle cost risk

  8. Cumulative Alendronate Dose and the Long-Term Absolute Risk of Subtrochanteric and Diaphyseal Femur Fractures: A Register-Based National Cohort Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Eiken, Pia Agnete; Eastell, Richard

    2010-01-01

    are currently the subject of a U.S. Food and Drug Administration review. Objective: Our objective was to examine the risk of subtrochanteric/diaphyseal femur fractures in long term users of alendronate. Design: We conducted an age- and gender-matched cohort study using national healthcare data. Patients...

  9. Lack of evidence for a harmful effect of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors on fracture risk among type 2 diabetes patients: a network and cumulative meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, H L; Li, D D; Zhang, J J; Hsu, Y H; Wang, T S; Zhai, S D; Song, Y Q

    2016-12-01

    To evaluate the comparative effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors on risk of bone fracture in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). PubMed, EMBASE, CENTRAL and ClinicalTrials.gov were systematically searched from inception to 27 January 2016 to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reporting the outcome of fracture in patients with T2DM treated with SGLT2 inhibitors. Pairwise and network meta-analyses, as well as a cumulative meta-analysis, were performed to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 38 eligible RCTs (10 canagliflozin, 15 dapagliflozin and 13 empagliflozin) involving 30 384 patients, with follow-ups ranging from 24 to 160 weeks, were included. The fracture event rates were 1.59% in the SGLT2 inhibitor groups and 1.56% in the control groups. The incidence of fracture events was similar among these three SGLT2 inhibitor groups. Compared with placebo, canagliflozin (OR 1.15; 95% CI 0.71-1.88), dapagliflozin (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.37-1.25) and empagliflozin (OR 0.93; 95% CI 0.74-1.18) were not significantly associated with an increased risk of fracture. Our cumulative meta-analysis indicated the robustness of the null findings with regard to SGLT2 inhibitors. Our meta-analysis based on available RCT data does not support the harmful effect of SGLT2 inhibitors on fractures, although future safety monitoring from RCTs and real-world data with detailed information on bone health is warranted. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Re: Could Testosterone Replacement Therapy in Hypogonadal Men Ameliorate Anemia, a Cardiovascular Risk Factor? An Observational, 54-week Cumulative Registry Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emre Bakırcıoğlu

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Testosterone deficiency syndrome may associate with erectile dysfunction, increased abdominal fat and reduced muscle mass. Low serum testosterone is also related with anemia, metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease. In this study, the authors investigated if testosterone undecanoate (TU reduces anemia and the risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with hypogonadism A total of 58 participants with a total testosterone level of less than 2.35 ng/ml received an injection of 1.000 mg TU 6 times; at initial visit, 6, 18, 30, 42 and 54 weeks. They observed that total testosterone and free testosterone levels were restored by TU. Hemoglobin and hematocrit levels significantly increased while anemia and total cholesterol levels significantly reduced. Although there are some limitations of this study e.g. it is not a randomized controlled and a long-term study, TU treatment in hypogonadal men decreased the prevalence of anemia, improved lipid profiles and lowered the risk of cardiovascular disease.

  11. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

  12. No association between cumulative traumatic experiences and sex in risk for posttraumatic stress disorder among human immunodeficiency virus-positive adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Tanya; Naidoo, Pamela; Cloete, Karen J; Harvey, Justin; Seedat, Soraya

    2013-06-01

    This study examined the association between the type and number of traumatic experiences and the conditional risk for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), stratified by sex, in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We evaluated 465 (114 male and 350 female) HIV-positive adults attending HIV clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Demographic and clinical data were collected, and the participants were screened for current PTSD and traumatic event exposure using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview and the Life Events Checklist, respectively. The highest attributable risk for PTSD was derived from sexual assault (17.4%) and transport accidents (16.9%). Only sexual assault was significantly (p = 0.002) associated with current PTSD. Although sex had no effect on the prediction of current PTSD, HIV-infected men tended to experience more lifetime traumas than HIV-infected women, with the men having significantly higher rates of exposure than women to physical assault (p = 0.018) and assault with a weapon (p = 0.001). These data highlight the importance of considering trauma type in contributing to the burden of PTSD in HIV-infected adults.

  13. Neurocognitive development of risk aversion from early childhood to adulthood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David ePaulsen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Human adults tend to avoid risk. In behavioral economic studies, risk aversion is manifest as a preference for sure gains over uncertain gains. However, children tend to be less averse to risk than adults. Given that many of the brain regions supporting decision making under risk do not reach maturity until late adolescence or beyond it is possible that mature risk-averse behavior may emerge from the development of decision-making circuitry. To explore this hypothesis, we tested 6- to 8-year-old children, 14- to 16-year-old adolescents, and young adults in a risky-decision task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data acquisition. We found a number of decision-related brain regions to increase in activation with age during decision making, including areas associated with contextual memory retrieval and the incorporation of prior outcomes into the current decision-making strategy, e.g. insula, hippocampus and amygdala. Further, children who were more risk averse showed increased activation during decision making in vmPFC and ventral striatum. Our findings indicate that the emergence of adult levels of risk aversion co-occurs with the recruitment of regions supporting decision making under risk, including the integration of prior outcomes into current decision-making behavior. This pattern of results suggests that individual differences in the development of risk aversion may reflect differences in the maturation of these neural processes.

  14. Lower early postnatal oxygen saturation target and risk of ductus arteriosus closure failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inomata, Kei; Taniguchi, Shinji; Yonemoto, Hiroki; Inoue, Takeshi; Kawase, Akihiko; Kondo, Yuichi

    2016-11-01

    Early postnatal hyperoxia is a major risk factor for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in extremely premature infants. To reduce the occurrence of ROP, we adopted a lower early postnatal oxygen saturation (SpO 2 ) target range (85-92%) from April 2011. Lower SpO 2 target range, however, may lead to hypoxemia and an increase in the risk of ductus arteriosus (DA) closure failure. The aim of this study was therefore to determine whether a lower SpO 2 target range, during the early postnatal stage, increases the risk of DA closure failure. Infants born at closure failure in period 2 (21%) was significantly higher than that in period 1 (1%). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, the lower oxygen saturation target range was an independent risk factor for DA closure failure. Lower early postnatal oxygen saturation target range increases the risk of DA closure failure. © 2016 Japan Pediatric Society.

  15. A novel index for quantifying the risk of early complications for patients undergoing cervical spine surgeries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passias, Peter G; Diebo, Bassel G; Marascalchi, Bryan J; Jalai, Cyrus M; Horn, Samantha R; Zhou, Peter L; Paltoo, Karen; Bono, Olivia J; Worley, Nancy; Poorman, Gregory W; Challier, Vincent; Dixit, Anant; Paulino, Carl; Lafage, Virginie

    2017-11-01

    OBJECTIVE It is becoming increasingly necessary for surgeons to provide evidence supporting cost-effectiveness of surgical treatment for cervical spine pathology. Anticipating surgical risk is critical in accurately evaluating the risk/benefit balance of such treatment. Determining the risk and cost-effectiveness of surgery, complications, revision procedures, and mortality rates are the most significant limitations. The purpose of this study was to determine independent risk factors for medical complications (MCs), surgical complications (SCs), revisions, and mortality rates following surgery for patients with cervical spine pathology. The most relevant risk factors were used to structure an index that will help quantify risk and anticipate failure for such procedures. METHODS The authors of this study performed a retrospective review of the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database for patients treated surgically for cervical spine pathology between 2001 and 2010. Multivariate models were performed to calculate the odds ratio (OR) of the independent risk factors that led to MCs and repeated for SCs, revisions, and mortality. The models controlled for age ( 65 years old), sex, race, revision status (except for revision analysis), surgical approach, number of levels fused/re-fused (2-3, 4-8, ≥ 9), and osteotomy utilization. ORs were weighted based on their predictive category: 2 times for revision surgery predictors and 4 times for mortality predictors. Fifty points were distributed among the predictors based on their cumulative OR to establish a risk index. RESULTS Discharges for 362,989 patients with cervical spine pathology were identified. The mean age was 52.65 years, and 49.47% of patients were women. Independent risk factors included medical comorbidities, surgical parameters, and demographic factors. Medical comorbidities included the following: pulmonary circulation disorder, coagulopathy, metastatic cancer, renal failure, congestive heart failure

  16. Early and Late Recurrent Epistaxis Admissions: Patterns of Incidence and Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Oded; Shoffel-Havakuk, Hagit; Warman, Meir; Tzelnick, Sharon; Haimovich, Yaara; Kohlberg, Gavriel D; Halperin, Doron; Lahav, Yonatan

    2017-09-01

    Objective Epistaxis is a common complaint, yet few studies have focused on the incidence and risk factors of recurrent epistaxis. Our objective was to determine the patterns of incidence and risk factors for recurrent epistaxis admission (REA). Study Design Case series with chart review. Settings Single academic center. Subjects and Methods The medical records of patients admitted for epistaxis between 1999 and 2015 were reviewed. The follow-up period was defined as 3 years following initial admission. REAs were categorized as early (30 days) and late (31 days to 3 years) following initial admission. Logistic regression was used to identify potential predictors of REAs. Results A total of 653 patients were included. Eighty-six patients (14%) had REAs: 48 (7.5%) early and 38 (6.5%) late. Nonlinear incidence curve was demonstrated for both early and late REAs. Based on logistic regression, prior nasal surgery and anemia were independent risk factors for early REAs. According to multivariate analysis, thrombocytopenia was significantly associated with late REAs. Conclusion Early and late REAs demonstrate different risk predictors. Knowledge of such risk factors may help in risk stratification for this selected group of patients. All patients at risk should be advised on possible preventive measures. Patients at risk for early REA may benefit from a more proactive approach.

  17. Steps and pips in the history of the cumulative recorder.

    OpenAIRE

    Lattal, Kennon A

    2004-01-01

    From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This review traces the evolution of the cumulative recorder from Skinner's early modified kymographs through various models developed by Skinner and his co...

  18. The challenge of cumulative impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masden, Elisabeth

    2011-07-01

    Full text: As governments pledge to combat climate change, wind turbines are becoming a common feature of terrestrial and marine environments. Although wind power is a renewable energy source and a means of reducing carbon emissions, there is a need to ensure that the wind farms themselves do not damage the environment. There is particular concern over the impacts of wind farms on bird populations, and with increasing numbers of wind farm proposals, the concern focuses on cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any activity/action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. Cumulative impact assessment is a legislative requirement of environmental impact assessment but such assessments are rarely adequate restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Reasons for this are numerous but a recurring theme is the lack of clear definitions and guidance on how to perform cumulative assessments. Here we present a conceptual framework and include illustrative examples to demonstrate how the framework can be used to improve the planning and execution of cumulative impact assessments. The core concept is that explicit definitions of impacts, actions and scales of assessment are required to reduce uncertainty in the process of assessment and improve communication between stake holders. Only when it is clear what has been included within a cumulative assessment, is it possible to make comparisons between developments. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development assessments. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating cumulative

  19. Early life exposures and risk of atopy among Danish children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, SF; Ulrik, Charlotte Suppli; Porsbjerg, C

    2006-01-01

    A large proportion of atopy develops in childhood and early life exposures are suspected to play a considerable role in the inception. The aim of this study was to examine the association between early life exposures and development of atopic disease in children. We performed a case-cohort study...... to be independent of familial predisposition to atopic disease and significantly increases the likelihood for development of atopy in genetically susceptible individuals. Parental knowledge of atopic heredity significantly influences smoking and breast-feeding habits....... of a random population-based sample of children (n = 480) 7-17 years of age, living in urban Copenhagen, Denmark. Information on breast-feeding, supplementation, wheezy bronchitis, use of antibiotics, and parental smoking during pregnancy and in early life was obtained retrospectively by questionnaire. Skin...

  20. Neurocognitive development of risk aversion from early childhood to adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulsen, David J; Carter, R McKell; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

    2011-01-01

    Human adults tend to avoid risk. In behavioral economic studies, risk aversion is manifest as a preference for sure gains over uncertain gains. However, children tend to be less averse to risk than adults. Given that many of the brain regions supporting decision-making under risk do not reach maturity until late adolescence or beyond it is possible that mature risk-averse behavior may emerge from the development of decision-making circuitry. To explore this hypothesis, we tested 5- to 8-year-old children, 14- to 16-year-old adolescents, and young adults in a risky-decision task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data acquisition. To our knowledge, this is the youngest sample of children in an fMRI decision-making task. We found a number of decision-related brain regions to increase in activation with age during decision-making, including areas associated with contextual memory retrieval and the incorporation of prior outcomes into the current decision-making strategy, e.g., insula, hippocampus, and amygdala. Further, children who were more risk-averse showed increased activation during decision-making in ventromedial prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum. Our findings indicate that the emergence of adult levels of risk aversion co-occurs with the recruitment of regions supporting decision-making under risk, including the integration of prior outcomes into current decision-making behavior. This pattern of results suggests that individual differences in the development of risk aversion may reflect differences in the maturation of these neural processes.

  1. Preadolescent sensation seeking and early adolescent stress relate to at-risk adolescents' substance use by age 15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles, Nora E; Mathias, Charles W; Acheson, Ashley; Dougherty, Donald M

    2017-06-01

    Substance use during adolescence can lead to the development of substance use disorders and other psychosocial problems. These negative outcomes are especially likely for individuals who use substances at earlier ages and those who engage in heavier use during adolescence, behaviors which are both more common among youth at higher risk for developing a substance use disorder, such as those with a family history of substance use disorders (FH+). Factors such as increased sensation seeking and greater exposure to stressors among FH+ youth may influence these associations. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the relative and unique contributions of sensation seeking during preadolescence and exposure to stressors during early to mid-adolescence to cumulative substance use by mid-adolescence among FH+ youth. A total of 167 mostly Hispanic FH+ youth (ages 12-15) who were participating in an ongoing longitudinal study were included in these analyses. Participants' data from biennial waves covering approximately 2.5years were used. Self-reported sensation seeking, exposure to stressors, and substance use were compared. Higher sensation seeking during preadolescence and greater exposure to stressors during early to mid-adolescence were both associated with substance use by age 15. These factors differentiated Substance Users from Non-Users, and also related to level of substance use. Elevated sensation seeking and exposure to stressors are both associated with substance use by age 15 among high-risk youth. Additionally, these factors can distinguish youth who develop heavier substance use during this important developmental period. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Risk Factors of Early Childhood Caries among Dar es Salaam ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Early childhood caries (ECC) describes caries experience on at least one primary tooth in children under six years of age. It is among the most common chronic diseases in young children and may develop as soon as the teeth erupt. Thus it presents a serious problem in pediatric dentistry not only because of ...

  3. Prevalence of early childhood caries and associated risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Javier Aguilar-Ayala

    2014-08-01

    Conclusion: due to the high prevalence of white spots, is necessary to create prevention programs that educate mothers or caregivers about the caries risk factors and its control, promoting self-care as a preven- tion strategy.

  4. Integrative Understanding of Familial Impulsivity, Early Adversity and Suicide Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Lima, Isabela M. M.; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro F.; de Miranda, Débora M.; Da Silva, Antônio G.; Neves, Fernando S.; Johnson, Sheri L.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Impulsivity is a core characteristic of bipolar disorder and it was observed as elevated in individuals with the disorder and in their relatives. Both impulsivity and history of maltreatment are risk factors for suicide attempts, however, these two key variables may not be independent, given the fact that parental impulsivity and associated social context could increase the risk of child maltreatment. In this study it was examined the association between the impulsivity of relat...

  5. Percutaneous radiofrequency ablation for early hepatocellular carcinoma: Risk factors for survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikuchi, Luciana; Menezes, Marcos; Chagas, Aline L; Tani, Claudia M; Alencar, Regiane SSM; Diniz, Marcio A; Alves, Venâncio AF; D’Albuquerque, Luiz Augusto Carneiro; Carrilho, Flair José

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate outcomes of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) therapy for early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and identify survival- and recurrence-related factors. METHODS: Consecutive patients diagnosed with early HCC by computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) (single nodule of ≤ 5 cm, or multi- (up to 3) nodules of ≤ 3 cm each) and who underwent RFA treatment with curative intent between January 2010 and August 2011 at the Instituto do Câncer do Estado de São Paulo, Brazil were enrolled in the study. RFA of the liver tumors (with 1.0 cm ablative margin) was carried out under CT-fluoro scan and ultrasonic image guidance of the percutaneous ablation probes. Procedure-related complications were recorded. At 1-mo post-RFA and 3-mo intervals thereafter, CT and MRI were performed to assess outcomes of complete response (absence of enhancing tissue at the tumor site) or incomplete response (enhancing tissue remaining at the tumor site). Overall survival and disease-free survival rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log rank test or simple Cox regression. The effect of risk factors on survival was assessed by the Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: A total of 38 RFA sessions were performed during the study period on 34 patients (age in years: mean, 63 and range, 49-84). The mean follow-up time was 22 mo (range, 1-33). The study population showed predominance of male sex (76%), less severe liver disease (Child-Pugh A, n = 26; Child-Pugh B, n = 8), and single tumor (65%). The maximum tumor diameters ranged from 10 to 50 mm (median, 26 mm). The initial (immediately post-procedure) rate of RFA-induced complete tumor necrosis was 90%. The probability of achieving complete response was significantly greater in patients with a single nodule (vs patients with multi-nodules, P = 0.04). Two patients experienced major complications, including acute pulmonary edema (resolved with intervention) and intestinal perforation

  6. Emotional and behavioural resilience to multiple risk exposure in early life: the role of parenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flouri, Eirini; Midouhas, Emily; Joshi, Heather; Tzavidis, Nikos

    2015-07-01

    Ecological and transactional theories link child outcomes to neighbourhood disadvantage, family poverty and adverse life events. Traditionally, these three types of risk factors have been examined independently of one another or combined into one cumulative risk index. The first approach results in poor prediction of child outcomes, and the second is not well rooted in ecological theory as it does not consider that distal risk factors (such as poverty) may indirectly impact children through proximal risk factors (such as adverse life events). In this study, we modelled simultaneously the longitudinal effects of these three risk factors on children's internalising and externalising problems, exploring the role of parenting in moderating these effects. Our sample followed 16,916 children (at ages 3, 5 and 7 years; N = 16,916; 49% girls) from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Parenting was characterised by quality of parent-child relationship, parental involvement in learning and parental discipline. Neighbourhood disadvantage, family poverty and adverse events were all simultaneously related to the trajectories of both outcomes. As expected, parenting moderated risk effects. Positive parent-child relationship, rather than greater involvement or authoritative discipline, most consistently 'buffered' risk effects. These findings suggest that a good parent-child relationship may promote young children's emotional and behavioural resilience to different types of environmental risk.

  7. Early amplitude‐integrated electroencephalography for monitoring neonates at high risk for brain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Fernando Todeschi Variane

    2017-09-01

    Conclusion: This study supports previous results and demonstrates the utility of amplitude‐integrated electroencephalography for monitoring brain function and predicting early outcome in the studied groups of infants at high risk for brain injury.

  8. The role of maternal early-life and later-life risk factors on offspring low birth weight: findings from a three-generational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavin, Amelia R; Hill, Karl G; Hawkins, J David; Maas, Carl

    2011-08-01

    This study examined three research questions: (1) Is there an association between maternal early-life economic disadvantage and the birth weight of later-born offspring? (2) Is there an association between maternal abuse in childhood and the birth weight of later-born offspring? (3) To what extent are these early-life risks mediated through adolescent and adult substance use, mental and physical health status, and adult socioeconomic status (SES)? Analyses used structural equation modeling to examine data from two longitudinal studies, which included three generations. The first generation (G1) and the second generation (G2) were enrolled in the Seattle Social Development Project (SSDP), and the third generation (G3) was enrolled in the SSDP Intergenerational Project. Data for the study (N = 136) focused on (G2) mothers enrolled in the SSDP and their children (G3). Analyses revealed that G2 low childhood SES predicted G3 offspring birth weight. Early childhood abuse among G2 respondents predicted G3 offspring birth weight through a mediated pathway including G2 adolescent substance use and G2 prenatal substance use. Birth weight was unrelated to maternal adult SES, depression, or obesity. To our knowledge, this is the first study to identify the effect of maternal early-life risks of low childhood SES and child maltreatment on later-born offspring birth weight. These findings have far-reaching effects on the cumulative risk associated with early-life economic disadvantage and childhood maltreatment. Such findings encourage policies and interventions that enhance child health at birth by taking the mother's own early-life and development into account. Copyright © 2011 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Early Inherited Risk for Anxiety Moderates the Association between Fathers’ Child-Centered Parenting and Early Social Inhibition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, Rebecca J.; Alto, Kathleen M.; Marceau, Kristine; Najjar, Reema; Leve, Leslie D.; Ganiban, Jody M.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Reiss, David; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.

    2016-01-01

    Studies of the role of the early environment in shaping children’s risk for anxiety problems have produced mixed results. It is possible that inconsistencies in previous findings result from a lack of consideration of a putative role for inherited influences moderators on the impact of early experiences. Early inherited influences not only contribute to vulnerabilities for anxiety problems throughout the lifespan, but can also modulate the ways that the early environment impacts child outcomes. In the current study, we tested the effects of child-centered parenting behaviors on putative anxiety risk in young children who differed in levels of inherited vulnerability. We tested this using a parent-offspring adoption design and a sample in which risk for anxiety problems and parenting behaviors were assessed in both mothers and fathers. Inherited influences on anxiety problems were assessed as anxiety symptoms in biological parents. Child-centered parenting was observed in adoptive mothers and fathers when children were 9 months old. Social inhibition, an early temperament marker of anxiety risk, was observed at child ages 9 and 18 months. Inherited influences on anxiety problems moderated the link between paternal child-centered parenting during infancy and social inhibition in toddlerhood. For children whose birth parents reported high levels of anxiety symptoms, greater child-centered parenting in adoptive fathers was related to greater social inhibition 9 months later. For children whose birth parents reported low levels of anxiety symptoms, greater child-centered parenting in adoptive fathers was related to less social inhibition across the same period. PMID:27572913

  10. Early inherited risk for anxiety moderates the association between fathers' child-centered parenting and early social inhibition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooker, R J; Alto, K M; Marceau, K; Najjar, R; Leve, L D; Ganiban, J M; Shaw, D S; Reiss, D; Neiderhiser, J M

    2016-12-01

    Studies of the role of the early environment in shaping children's risk for anxiety problems have produced mixed results. It is possible that inconsistencies in previous findings result from a lack of consideration of a putative role for inherited influences moderators on the impact of early experiences. Early inherited influences not only contribute to vulnerabilities for anxiety problems throughout the lifespan, but can also modulate the ways that the early environment impacts child outcomes. In the current study, we tested the effects of child-centered parenting behaviors on putative anxiety risk in young children who differed in levels of inherited vulnerability. We tested this using a parent-offspring adoption design and a sample in which risk for anxiety problems and parenting behaviors were assessed in both mothers and fathers. Inherited influences on anxiety problems were assessed as anxiety symptoms in biological parents. Child-centered parenting was observed in adoptive mothers and fathers when children were 9 months old. Social inhibition, an early temperament marker of anxiety risk, was observed at child ages 9 and 18 months. Inherited influences on anxiety problems moderated the link between paternal child-centered parenting during infancy and social inhibition in toddlerhood. For children whose birth parents reported high levels of anxiety symptoms, greater child-centered parenting in adoptive fathers was related to greater social inhibition 9 months later. For children whose birth parents reported low levels of anxiety symptoms, greater child-centered parenting in adoptive fathers was related to less social inhibition across the same period.

  11. Cortisol Reactivity to Social Stress as a Mediator of Early Adversity on Risk and Adaptive Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conradt, Elisabeth; Abar, Beau; Lester, Barry M.; LaGasse, Linda L.; Shankaran, Seetha; Bada, Henrietta; Bauer, Charles R.; Whitaker, Toni M.; Hammond, Jane A.

    2014-01-01

    Children chronically exposed to stress early in life are at increased risk for maladaptive outcomes, though the physiological mechanisms driving these effects are unknown. Cortisol reactivity was tested as a mediator of the relation between prenatal substance exposure and/or early adversity on adaptive and maladaptive outcomes. Data were drawn…

  12. FUNCTIONAL DISABILITY IN EARLY RHEUMATOID-ARTHRITIS - DESCRIPTION AND RISK-FACTORS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    GUILLEMIN, F; SUURMEIJER, T; KROL, B; BOMBARDIER, C; BRIANCON, S; DOEGLAS, D; SANDERMAN, R; VANDENHEUVEL, W

    Objective. To provide a description and identify risk factors for functional disability in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods. A cohort of 337 patients with early RA with disease duration under 5 years was constituted in 2 areas in Fiance and The Netherlands. Examination included the Ritchie

  13. Cumulative Environmental Impacts: Science and Policy to Protect Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Gina M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zeise, Lauren; Faust, John B

    2016-01-01

    Many communities are located near multiple sources of pollution, including current and former industrial sites, major roadways, and agricultural operations. Populations in such locations are predominantly low-income, with a large percentage of minorities and non-English speakers. These communities face challenges that can affect the health of their residents, including limited access to health care, a shortage of grocery stores, poor housing quality, and a lack of parks and open spaces. Environmental exposures may interact with social stressors, thereby worsening health outcomes. Age, genetic characteristics, and preexisting health conditions increase the risk of adverse health effects from exposure to pollutants. There are existing approaches for characterizing cumulative exposures, cumulative risks, and cumulative health impacts. Although such approaches have merit, they also have significant constraints. New developments in exposure monitoring, mapping, toxicology, and epidemiology, especially when informed by community participation, have the potential to advance the science on cumulative impacts and to improve decision making.

  14. Risk and Teenage Parenthood: An Early Sexual Health Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Sally; Robinson, Carol

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to outline the development of a resource designed to support practitioners, who are not sexual health specialists, but who work with young people who may be at risk of teenage pregnancy or parenthood. Its aim was to enable practitioners to carry out an assessment using a screening tool, and to use educational…

  15. Early risk stratification in pediatric type 1 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broe, Rebecca

    2015-01-01

    In the late 1980s all Danish children with type 1 diabetes were invited for a nationwide evaluation of glycemic control. Approximately 75% (n = 720) participated and have later been referred to as The Danish Cohort of Pediatric Diabetes 1987 (DCPD1987). The results were surprisingly poor glycemic...... control among these young patients which lead to a great emphasis on glycemic control in the Danish Pediatric Departments. In 1995 the participants were invited for yet another evaluation but this time with main focus on early signs of microvascular complications - 339 participated. The mean HbA1c had...

  16. Glucose intolerance in early postpartum in women with gestational diabetes: Who is at increased risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leuridan, Liesbeth; Wens, Johan; Devlieger, Roland; Verhaeghe, Johan; Mathieu, Chantal; Benhalima, Katrien

    2015-08-01

    Women with a history of gestational diabetes (GDM) have an increased risk for developing type 2 diabetes in the years after the index pregnancy. Some women with GDM already develop glucose intolerance in early postpartum. The best screening strategy for glucose intolerance in early postpartum among women with a history of GDM is still debated. We review the most important risk factors of women with GDM to develop glucose intolerance within one year postpartum. We also discuss the current recommendations for screening in early postpartum and the many challenges to organize postpartum follow up in primary care. Copyright © 2015 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A Risk-Based Multi-Objective Optimization Concept for Early-Warning Monitoring Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bode, F.; Loschko, M.; Nowak, W.

    2014-12-01

    Groundwater is a resource for drinking water and hence needs to be protected from contaminations. However, many well catchments include an inventory of known and unknown risk sources which cannot be eliminated, especially in urban regions. As matter of risk control, all these risk sources should be monitored. A one-to-one monitoring situation for each risk source would lead to a cost explosion and is even impossible for unknown risk sources. However, smart optimization concepts could help to find promising low-cost monitoring network designs.In this work we develop a concept to plan monitoring networks using multi-objective optimization. Our considered objectives are to maximize the probability of detecting all contaminations and the early warning time and to minimize the installation and operating costs of the monitoring network. A qualitative risk ranking is used to prioritize the known risk sources for monitoring. The unknown risk sources can neither be located nor ranked. Instead, we represent them by a virtual line of risk sources surrounding the production well.We classify risk sources into four different categories: severe, medium and tolerable for known risk sources and an extra category for the unknown ones. With that, early warning time and detection probability become individual objectives for each risk class. Thus, decision makers can identify monitoring networks which are valid for controlling the top risk sources, and evaluate the capabilities (or search for least-cost upgrade) to also cover moderate, tolerable and unknown risk sources. Monitoring networks which are valid for the remaining risk also cover all other risk sources but the early-warning time suffers.The data provided for the optimization algorithm are calculated in a preprocessing step by a flow and transport model. Uncertainties due to hydro(geo)logical phenomena are taken into account by Monte-Carlo simulations. To avoid numerical dispersion during the transport simulations we use the

  18. [Early hypophosphataemia in at risk newborns. Frequency and magnitude].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustos Lozano, Gerardo; Hidalgo Romero, Álvaro; Melgar Bonis, Ana; Ureta Velasco, Noelia; Orbea Gallardo, Carlos; Pallás Alonso, Carmen

    2018-04-01

    To determine the frequency and magnitude of neonatal hypophosphataemia (32 weeks with weightearly days of life. Hypophosphataemia is common, and can be severe, in the first week of life in premature infants <1,000 grams, and newborns<1,200g with foetal malnutrition and receiving amino acids in early parenteral nutrition. Copyright © 2016 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  19. Does Father Absence Place Daughters at Special Risk for Early Sexual Activity and Teenage Pregnancy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Bruce J.; Bates, John E.; Dodge, Kenneth A.; Fergusson, David M.; Horwood, L. John; Pettit, Gregory S.; Woodward, Lianne

    2003-01-01

    Longitudinal studies in two countries investigated impact of father absence on girls' early sexual activity (ESA) and teenage pregnancy. Findings indicated that greater exposure to father absence strongly related to elevated ESA and adolescent pregnancy risk. Elevated risk was not explained (U.S. sample) or only partly explained (New Zealand…

  20. Risk Factors of Early Otitis Media in the Danish National Birth Cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kørvel-Hanquist, Asbjørn; Koch, Anders; Niclasen, Janni

    2016-01-01

    associated with a risk of OM. When a Bonferroni correction was introduced, gender, prematurity, parity, maternal age, maternal self-estimated health, taking penicillin during pregnancy, and terminating breastfeeding before age six months, was associated with a risk of early OM. The adjusted ORs of OM...

  1. First Steps to School Readiness: South Carolina's Response to At-Risk Early Childhood Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buford, Rhonda; Stegelin, Dolores A.

    2003-01-01

    Describes South Carolina's new state early childhood program, First Steps to School Readiness. Includes a profile of the state's at-risk child population, noting poverty and education risk indicators, and describing key program components. The article discusses program oversight, local program partnerships, program funding mechanisms, and local…

  2. Stability of Early Risk Assessment for Autism Spectrum Disorder in Preterm Infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaari, Maya; Yitzhak, Neta; Harel, Ayelet; Friedlander, Edwa; Bar-Oz, Benjamin; Eventov-Friedman, Smadar; Mankuta, David; Gamliel, Ifat; Yirmiya, Nurit

    2016-01-01

    Stability and change in early autism spectrum disorder risk were examined in a cohort of 99 preterm infants (?34 weeks of gestation) using the Autism Observation Scale for Infants at 8 and 12 months and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule--Toddler Module at 18 months. A total of 21 infants were identified at risk by the Autism Observation…

  3. Early Markers of Language Delay in Children with and without Family Risk for Dyslexia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unhjem, Astrid; Eklund, Kenneth; Nergård-Nilssen, Trude

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the extent to which receptive and productive vocabulary between ages 12 and 18 months predicted language skills at age 24 months in children born with family risk for dyslexia (FR) and a control group born without that risk. The aim was to identify possible markers of early language delay. The authors monitored vocabulary…

  4. Associations between Early Family Risk, Children's Behavioral Regulation, and Academic Achievement in Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cadima, Joana; Gamelas, Ana M.; McClelland, Megan; Peixoto, Carla

    2015-01-01

    Research Findings: This study examined concurrent associations between family sociodemographic risk, self-regulation, and early literacy and mathematics in young children from Azores, Portugal (N = 186). Family sociodemographic risk was indexed by low maternal education, low family income, and low occupational status. Behavioral aspects of…

  5. Early identification and intervention in children at risk for reading difficulties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Regtvoort, A.G.F.M.

    2014-01-01

    In pre-readers, a familial background of dyslexia and/or delayed emergent literacy should be considered a not-to-ignore risk signalling problems with learning to read. This thesis aims to study early identification and intervention in at-risk children shortly before or after the start of formal

  6. RISK FACTORS AND EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CHILDREN BORN WITH AN ASSISTED FERTILIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milena MILICHEVIKJ

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present a systematic literature review of the researches conducted in the area of risk factors and difficulties in the early development of children born after assisted conception, to systematize current knowledge in this field and allocate the factors of importance for the early intervention.In order to evaluate the published data on risk factors and early development of children born after assisted conception, an extensive literature search was conducted to identify the published papers related to the obstetric and neonatal outcome of pregnancies after assisted repro­duction technology, the incidence of multiple pregnancy and the risk of preterm delivery, the neonatal status, the mean gestational age, the average birth weight, the neuro-developmental outcomes and early cognitive and motor development. The research identified the following factors as the most important for the early intervention: increased rates of multiple gestations, prematurity, delivery by cesarean section, lower average gestational development and average birth weight, small fetal development for gestational age and low Apgar score, related to the an increased risk of developing neurological problems, such as the cerebral palsy.Accepting this research results, it can be concluded that all of these information should be available for couples seeking an Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART treatment.The success of the early intervention is directly related to the early detection and assessment that precedes this treatment, creating individual programs and evaluation of the effects of the treatment.

  7. Integrative Understanding of Familial Impulsivity, Early Adversity and Suicide Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabela M. M. Lima

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Impulsivity is a core characteristic of bipolar disorder and it was observed as elevated in individuals with the disorder and in their relatives. Both impulsivity and history of maltreatment are risk factors for suicide attempts, however, these two key variables may not be independent, given the fact that parental impulsivity and associated social context could increase the risk of child maltreatment. In this study it was examined the association between the impulsivity of relatives and child maltreatment taking into consideration the conjoint and unique effects of these two variables on the risk of suicide attempts among the patients.Materials and Methods: Participants of the study consisted of 117 patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder and 25 first-degree relatives. Linear regression model was conducted to describe associations between facets of impulsivity of relatives and levels of child maltreatment reported by patients. The independent associations of suicide attempt history with the dimensions of impulsivity of the patient and maltreatment were tested by multinomial logistic regression.Results: Impulsivity of relatives and, more specifically, inhibitory control can predict the maltreatment of the patient. Inhibitory control and emotional abuse were related, conjointly, to a greater likelihood of having a history of more than one suicide attempt.Discussion: Considering that the impulsivity of relatives predicts child maltreatment, it is possible that a genetically shared impulsivity is an underlying feature associated with the history of multiple suicide attempts. These findings highlight the importance of considering child maltreatment, impulsivity and suicide attempt history in integrative models.

  8. Integrative Understanding of Familial Impulsivity, Early Adversity and Suicide Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Isabela M M; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro F; de Miranda, Débora M; Da Silva, Antônio G; Neves, Fernando S; Johnson, Sheri L

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: Impulsivity is a core characteristic of bipolar disorder and it was observed as elevated in individuals with the disorder and in their relatives. Both impulsivity and history of maltreatment are risk factors for suicide attempts, however, these two key variables may not be independent, given the fact that parental impulsivity and associated social context could increase the risk of child maltreatment. In this study it was examined the association between the impulsivity of relatives and child maltreatment taking into consideration the conjoint and unique effects of these two variables on the risk of suicide attempts among the patients. Materials and Methods: Participants of the study consisted of 117 patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder and 25 first-degree relatives. Linear regression model was conducted to describe associations between facets of impulsivity of relatives and levels of child maltreatment reported by patients. The independent associations of suicide attempt history with the dimensions of impulsivity of the patient and maltreatment were tested by multinomial logistic regression. Results: Impulsivity of relatives and, more specifically, inhibitory control can predict the maltreatment of the patient. Inhibitory control and emotional abuse were related, conjointly, to a greater likelihood of having a history of more than one suicide attempt. Discussion: Considering that the impulsivity of relatives predicts child maltreatment, it is possible that a genetically shared impulsivity is an underlying feature associated with the history of multiple suicide attempts. These findings highlight the importance of considering child maltreatment, impulsivity and suicide attempt history in integrative models.

  9. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  10. Early feeding and risk of type 1 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knip, Mikael; Virtanen, Suvi M; Becker, Dorothy

    2011-01-01

    recruited 5606 newborn infants with a family member affected by type 1 diabetes and enrolled 2159 eligible subjects who carried a risk-conferring HLA genotype. All recruited mothers were encouraged to breastfeed. The intervention lasted for 6-8 mo with a minimum study formula exposure time of 2 mo......, and hydrolyzed casein and standard cow milk-based weaning formulas were compared. Eighty percent of the participants were exposed to the study formula. The overall retention rate over the first 5 y was 87%, and protocol compliance was 94%. The randomization code will be opened when the last recruited child turns...

  11. Maternal obesity in early pregnancy and risk of adverse outcomes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inmaculada Bautista-Castaño

    Full Text Available To assess the role of the health consequences of maternal overweight and obesity at the start of pregnancy on gestational pathologies, delivery and newborn characteristics.A cohort of pregnant women (n = 6.558 having delivered at the Maternal & Child University Hospital of Gran Canaria (HUMIGC in 2008 has been studied. Outcomes were compared using multivariate analyses controlling for confounding variables.Compared to normoweight, overweight and obese women have greater risks of gestational diabetes mellitus (RR = 2.13 (95% CI: 1.52-2.98 and (RR = 2.85 (95% CI: 2.01-4.04, gestational hypertension (RR = 2.01 (95% CI: 1.27-3.19 and (RR = 4.79 (95% CI: 3.13-7.32 and preeclampsia (RR = 3.16 (95% CI: 1.12-8.91 and (RR = 8.80 (95% CI: 3.46-22.40. Obese women have also more frequently oligodramnios (RR = 2.02 (95% CI: 1.25-3.27, polyhydramnios. (RR = 1.76 (95% CI: 1.03-2.99, tearing (RR = 1.24 (95% CI: 1.05-1.46 and a lower risk of induced deliveries (RR = 0.83 (95% CI: 0.72-0.95. Both groups have more frequently caesarean section (RR = 1.36 (95% CI: 1.14-1.63 and (RR = 1.84 (95% CI: 1.53-2.22 and manual placenta extraction (RR = 1.65 (95% CI: 1.28-2.11 and (RR = 1.77 (95% CI: 1.35-2.33. Newborns from overweight and obese women have higher weight (p<0.001 and a greater risk of being macrosomic (RR = 2.00 (95% CI: 1.56-2.56 and (RR = 2.74 (95% CI: 2.12-3.54. Finally, neonates from obese mother have a higher risk of being admitted to special care units (RR = 1.34 (95% CI: 1.01-1.77. Apgar 1 min was significantly higher in newborns from normoweight mothers: 8.65 (95% CI: 8.62-8.69 than from overweight: 8.56 (95% CI: 8.50-8.61 or obese mothers: 8.48 (95% CI: 8.41-8.54.Obesity and overweight status at the beginning of pregnancy increase the adverse outcomes of the pregnancy. It is important to promote the normalization of bodyweight in those women who intend to get pregnant and to

  12. Maternal obesity in early pregnancy and risk of adverse outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bautista-Castaño, Inmaculada; Henriquez-Sanchez, Patricia; Alemán-Perez, Nestor; Garcia-Salvador, Jose J; Gonzalez-Quesada, Alicia; García-Hernández, Jose A; Serra-Majem, Luis

    2013-01-01

    To assess the role of the health consequences of maternal overweight and obesity at the start of pregnancy on gestational pathologies, delivery and newborn characteristics. A cohort of pregnant women (n = 6.558) having delivered at the Maternal & Child University Hospital of Gran Canaria (HUMIGC) in 2008 has been studied. Outcomes were compared using multivariate analyses controlling for confounding variables. Compared to normoweight, overweight and obese women have greater risks of gestational diabetes mellitus (RR = 2.13 (95% CI: 1.52-2.98) and (RR = 2.85 (95% CI: 2.01-4.04), gestational hypertension (RR = 2.01 (95% CI: 1.27-3.19) and (RR = 4.79 (95% CI: 3.13-7.32) and preeclampsia (RR = 3.16 (95% CI: 1.12-8.91) and (RR = 8.80 (95% CI: 3.46-22.40). Obese women have also more frequently oligodramnios (RR = 2.02 (95% CI: 1.25-3.27), polyhydramnios. (RR = 1.76 (95% CI: 1.03-2.99), tearing (RR = 1.24 (95% CI: 1.05-1.46) and a lower risk of induced deliveries (RR = 0.83 (95% CI: 0.72-0.95). Both groups have more frequently caesarean section (RR = 1.36 (95% CI: 1.14-1.63) and (RR = 1.84 (95% CI: 1.53-2.22) and manual placenta extraction (RR = 1.65 (95% CI: 1.28-2.11) and (RR = 1.77 (95% CI: 1.35-2.33). Newborns from overweight and obese women have higher weight (pApgar 1 min was significantly higher in newborns from normoweight mothers: 8.65 (95% CI: 8.62-8.69) than from overweight: 8.56 (95% CI: 8.50-8.61) or obese mothers: 8.48 (95% CI: 8.41-8.54). Obesity and overweight status at the beginning of pregnancy increase the adverse outcomes of the pregnancy. It is important to promote the normalization of bodyweight in those women who intend to get pregnant and to provide appropriate advice to the obese women of the risks of obesity at the start of the pregnancy.

  13. Early Childhood Infections and the Risk of Islet Autoimmunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snell-Bergeon, Janet K.; Smith, Jennifer; Dong, Fran; Barón, Anna E.; Barriga, Kathy; Norris, Jill M.; Rewers, Marian

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Type 1 diabetes is a common chronic childhood disease, and the incidence is increasing globally. Childhood infections are considered a potential environmental trigger of type 1 diabetes. Alternatively, improved hygiene and reduced childhood infections could explain the increase in type 1 diabetes in developed countries. The association of reported illnesses during infancy and later development of islet autoimmunity (IA) were examined in the Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Complete illness interviews through 9 months of age were collected for 1,729 children—1,174 without a family history of type 1 diabetes and 555 with a first-degree relative with type 1 diabetes. Persistent IA was defined as positive antibodies to insulin, glutamic acid decarboxylase, or tyrosine phosphatase on at least two consecutive study visits. RESULTS There were 109 children with persistent IA among the 1,729 children with illness records. A greater number of gastrointestinal illnesses were associated with an increased risk of IA, but only among children who were exposed to gluten-containing grains (wheat or barley) either <4 months of age (hazard ratio 1.37 [95% CI 1.22–1.55]; P < 0.0001) or ≥7 months of age (1.12 [1.05–1.19]; P = 0.0005) compared with 4–6 months of age (P for interaction = 0.02). There were no associations of upper respiratory symptoms, respiratory illnesses, or fevers with IA. CONCLUSIONS Specific pathogens such as enteroviruses or rotavirus may increase the risk of IA in the presence of existing inflammation induced by diet. PMID:23043167

  14. Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Brookhart, M. Alan; Westreich, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely risk. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing risks or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the risks are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These risks can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080

  15. Stress and resource pathways connecting early socioeconomic adversity to young adults' physical health risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickrama, Kandauda K A S; Lee, Tae Kyoung; O'Neal, Catherine Walker; Kwon, Josephine A

    2015-05-01

    Although research has established the impact of early stress, including stressful life contexts, and early resources, such as educational attainment, on various adolescent health outcomes, previous research has not adequately investigated "integrative models" incorporating both stress and resource mediational pathways to explain how early socioeconomic adversity impacts physical health outcomes, particularly in early life stages. Data on early childhood/adolescent stress and socioeconomic resources as well as biomarkers indicating physical health status in young adulthood were collected from 11,798 respondents (54 % female) over a 13-year period from youth participating in the National Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Physical health risk in young adulthood was measured using a composite index of nine regulatory biomarkers of cardiovascular and metabolic systems. Heterogeneity in stress and socioeconomic resource pathways was assessed using latent class analysis to identify clusters, or classes, of stress and socioeconomic resource trajectories. The influence of early socioeconomic adversity on young adults' physical health risk, as measured by biomarkers, was estimated, and the role of stress and socioeconomic resource trajectory classes as linking mechanisms was assessed. There was evidence for the influence of early socioeconomic adversity on young adults' physical health risk directly and indirectly through stress and socioeconomic resource trajectory classes over the early life course. These findings suggest that health models should be broadened to incorporate both stress and resource experiences simultaneously. Furthermore, these findings have prevention and intervention implications, including the importance of early socioeconomic adversity and key intervention points for "turning" the trajectories of at-risk youth.

  16. Early indicators and risk factors for ethical issues in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlish, Carol; Brown-Saltzman, Katherine; Hersh, Mary; Shirk, Marilyn; Nudelman, Olga

    2011-03-01

    Nurses in all clinical settings encounter ethical issues that frequently lead to moral distress. This critical incident study explored nurses' descriptions of ethically difficult situations to identify risk factors and early indicators of ethical conflicts. Employing the critical incident technique, researchers developed a questionnaire that collected information on ethically difficult situations, their risk factors and early indicators, nurse actions, and situational outcomes. Two nurse researchers independently analyzed and categorized data using a constant comparison technique. Most of the ethically difficult situations pertained to end-of-life care for children and adults. Conflicts in interpersonal relationships were prevalent. Nurses were especially moved by patient and family suffering and concerned about patient vulnerability, harm-benefit ratio, and patient autonomy. Researchers discovered risk factor categories for patients, families, healthcare providers, and health systems. Additionally, researchers found subcategories in six major categories of early indicators: signs of conflict, patient suffering, nurse distress, ethics violation, unrealistic expectations, and poor communication. Nurses are keenly aware of pertinent risk factors and early indicators of unfolding ethical conflicts. Many nurses reported feeling powerless in the face of ethical conflict. Research that develops interventions to strengthen nurses' voices in ethically difficult situation is warranted. Nurses are in a key position to identify patient situations with a high risk for ethical conflict. Initiating early ethics consultation and interventions can alter the course of pending conflicts and diminish the potential for patient and family suffering and nurses' moral distress. © 2011 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  17. An early warning system for groundwater pollution based on the assessment of groundwater pollution risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Weihong.; Zhao, Yongsheng; Hong, Mei; Guo, Xiaodong

    2009-04-01

    Groundwater pollution usually is complex and concealed, remediation of which is difficult, high cost, time-consuming, and ineffective. An early warning system for groundwater pollution is needed that detects groundwater quality problems and gets the information necessary to make sound decisions before massive groundwater quality degradation occurs. Groundwater pollution early warning were performed by considering comprehensively the current groundwater quality, groundwater quality varying trend and groundwater pollution risk . The map of the basic quality of the groundwater was obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation or BP neural network evaluation. Based on multi-annual groundwater monitoring datasets, Water quality state in sometime of the future was forecasted using time-sequenced analyzing methods. Water quality varying trend was analyzed by Spearman's rank correlative coefficient.The relative risk map of groundwater pollution was estimated through a procedure that identifies, cell by cell,the values of three factors, that is inherent vulnerability, load risk of pollution source and contamination hazard. DRASTIC method was used to assess inherent vulnerability of aquifer. Load risk of pollution source was analyzed based on the potential of contamination and pollution degree. Assessment index of load risk of pollution source which involves the variety of pollution source, quantity of contaminants, releasing potential of pollutants, and distance were determined. The load risks of all sources considered by GIS overlay technology. Early warning model of groundwater pollution combined with ComGIS technology organically, the regional groundwater pollution early-warning information system was developed, and applied it into Qiqiha'er groundwater early warning. It can be used to evaluate current water quality, to forecast water quality changing trend, and to analyze space-time influencing range of groundwater quality by natural process and human activities. Keywords

  18. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

    2010-05-01

    Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning

  19. Cumulative radiation exposure in children with cystic fibrosis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Reilly, R

    2010-02-01

    This retrospective study calculated the cumulative radiation dose for children with cystic fibrosis (CF) attending a tertiary CF centre. Information on 77 children with a mean age of 9.5 years, a follow up time of 658 person years and 1757 studies including 1485 chest radiographs, 215 abdominal radiographs and 57 computed tomography (CT) scans, of which 51 were thoracic CT scans, were analysed. The average cumulative radiation dose was 6.2 (0.04-25) mSv per CF patient. Cumulative radiation dose increased with increasing age and number of CT scans and was greater in children who presented with meconium ileus. No correlation was identified between cumulative radiation dose and either lung function or patient microbiology cultures. Radiation carries a risk of malignancy and children are particularly susceptible. Every effort must be made to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure in these patients whose life expectancy is increasing.

  20. Enhancing early child care quality and learning for toddlers at risk: the responsive early childhood program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landry, Susan H; Zucker, Tricia A; Taylor, Heather B; Swank, Paul R; Williams, Jeffrey M; Assel, Michael; Crawford, April; Huang, Weihua; Clancy-Menchetti, Jeanine; Lonigan, Christopher J; Phillips, Beth M; Eisenberg, Nancy; Spinrad, Tracy L; de Villiers, Jill; de Villiers, Peter; Barnes, Marcia; Starkey, Prentice; Klein, Alice

    2014-02-01

    Despite reports of positive effects of high-quality child care, few experimental studies have examined the process of improving low-quality center-based care for toddler-age children. In this article, we report intervention effects on child care teachers' behaviors and children's social, emotional, behavioral, early literacy, language, and math outcomes as well as the teacher-child relationship. The intervention targeted the use of a set of responsive teacher practices, derived from attachment and sociocultural theories, and a comprehensive curriculum. Sixty-five childcare classrooms serving low-income 2- and 3-year-old children were randomized into 3 conditions: business-as-usual control, Responsive Early Childhood Curriculum (RECC), and RECC plus explicit social-emotional classroom activities (RECC+). Classroom observations showed greater gains for RECC and RECC+ teachers' responsive practices including helping children manage their behavior, establishing a predictable schedule, and use of cognitively stimulating activities (e.g., shared book reading) compared with controls; however, teacher behaviors did not differ for focal areas such as sensitivity and positive discipline supports. Child assessments demonstrated that children in the interventions outperformed controls in areas of social and emotional development, although children's performance in control and intervention groups was similar for cognitive skills (language, literacy, and math). Results support the positive impact of responsive teachers and environments providing appropriate support for toddlers' social and emotional development. Possible explanations for the absence of systematic differences in children's cognitive skills are considered, including implications for practice and future research targeting low-income toddlers.

  1. The importance of early detection of lip cancer risk groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fratila, M.; Rosu, S.

    2014-03-01

    in frequency as well as in the therapeutic problems raised. In the face and oral cavity cancer catagory, lip represents 2% of all cases and 19-25% of the total facial cancer area. Lip cancer is one of the localizations that, when detected early, can benefit from an effective therapy with high chances of healing. In order to achieve a complex treatment, interdisciplinary collaboration is required, only thus being able to determine both the therapeutic methods as well as their association.

  2. The importance of early detection of lip cancer risk groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victor Babeş Timişoara, Piaţa Eftimie Murgu No. 2, 300041 (Romania))" data-affiliation=" (Maxillo-facial surgeon, University of Medicine and Pharmacy Victor Babeş Timişoara, Piaţa Eftimie Murgu No. 2, 300041 (Romania))" >Fratila, M; Victor Babeş Timişoara, Piaţa Eftimie Murgu No. 2, 300041 (Romania))" data-affiliation=" (Maxillo-facial surgeon, University of Medicine and Pharmacy Victor Babeş Timişoara, Piaţa Eftimie Murgu No. 2, 300041 (Romania))" >Rosu, S

    2014-01-01

    . Neoplastic pathology is constantly increasing both in frequency as well as in the therapeutic problems raised. In the face and oral cavity cancer catagory, lip represents 2% of all cases and 19-25% of the total facial cancer area. Lip cancer is one of the localizations that, when detected early, can benefit from an effective therapy with high chances of healing. In order to achieve a complex treatment, interdisciplinary collaboration is required, only thus being able to determine both the therapeutic methods as well as their association

  3. Computed tomography imaging of early coronary artery lesions in stable individuals with multiple cardiovascular risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xi Yang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prevalence, extent, severity, and features of coronary artery lesions in stable patients with multiple cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: Seventy-seven patients with more than 3 cardiovascular risk factors were suspected of having coronary artery disease. Patients with high-risk factors and 39 controls with no risk factors were enrolled in the study. The related risk factors included hypertension, impaired glucose tolerance, dyslipidemia, smoking history, and overweight. The characteristics of coronary lesions were identified and evaluated by 64-slice coronary computed tomography angiography. RESULTS: The incidence of coronary atherosclerosis was higher in the high-risk group than in the no-risk group. The involved branches of the coronary artery, the diffusivity of the lesion, the degree of stenosis, and the nature of the plaques were significantly more severe in the high-risk group compared with the no-risk group (all p < 0.05. CONCLUSION: Among stable individuals with high-risk factors, early coronary artery lesions are common and severe. Computed tomography has promising value for the early screening of coronary lesions.

  4. Change in Overweight from Childhood to Early Adulthood and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Lise G; Jensen, Britt W; Ängquist, Lars

    2018-01-01

    Background Childhood overweight is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes in adulthood. We investigated whether remission of overweight before early adulthood reduces this risk. Methods We conducted a study involving 62,565 Danish men whose weights and heights had been measured at 7...... and 13 years of age and in early adulthood (17 to 26 years of age). Overweight was defined in accordance with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. Data on type 2 diabetes status (at age ≥30 years, 6710 persons) were obtained from a national health registry. Results Overweight at 7 years.......14; 95% CI, 3.57 to 4.79). An increase in body-mass index between 7 years of age and early adulthood was associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes, even among men whose weight had been normal at 7 years of age. Conclusions Childhood overweight at 7 years of age was associated with increased...

  5. Health risks (early, delayed and genetic) from the present radiation level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stranden, E.

    1981-01-01

    A general survey is given of the risks of early, delayed and genetic injuries from present radiation environment. Brief data is presented on some industrial and medical accidents. It is stated that in Norway there are 5-10 incidents per year in industrial radiography, none of which have led to radiation syndrome. Delayed radiation effects are discussed and figures quoted for risk due to mining, industrial and medical radiography and natural sources. Genetic effects are similarly discussed and genetically significant doses from similar sources are quoted. It is concluded that the health risk from the radiation environment is very small compared with other risks. (JIW)

  6. Selected non-somatic risk factors for pregnancy loss in patients with abnormal early pregnancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maciej Paszkowski

    2015-12-01

    The results of this study confirm the complexity of the early pregnancy loss etiopatogenesis. Further research need to be conducted in order to identify the non-somatic causative agents of various clinical forms of miscarriage. It may help do select women in reproductive age at high risk of early pregnancy loss and show the ways in which effective preventive measures can be introduced in such population.

  7. Early life adversity is associated with brain changes in subjects at family risk for depression.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Carballedo, Angela

    2012-12-01

    The interplay of genetic and early environmental factors is recognized as an important factor in the aetiology of major depressive disorder (MDD). The aim of the present study was to examine whether reduced volume of hippocampus and frontal brain regions involved in emotional regulation are already present in unaffected healthy individuals at genetic risk of suffering MDD and to investigate whether early life adversity is a relevant factor interacting with these reduced brain structures.

  8. Victims of Chinese famine in early life have increased risk of metabolic syndrome in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Caizheng; Wang, Jing; Wang, Fei; Han, Xu; Hu, Hua; Yuan, Jing; Miao, Xiaoping; Yao, Ping; Wei, Sheng; Wang, Youjie; Liang, Yuan; Zhang, Xiaomin; Guo, Huan; Pan, An; Zheng, Dan; Tang, Yuhan; Yang, Handong; Wu, Tangchun; He, Meian

    2018-02-05

    To investigate the association of exposure to the Chinese famine during early life with metabolic syndrome risk in adults. There were 7,915 participants from Dongfeng-Tongji cohort were included in the present study. Participants were classified as non-exposed group, fetal exposed group, early childhood-, mid childhood-, and late childhood-exposed groups, respectively. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to International Diabetes Foundation criteria (2005). Logistic regression model was used to explore the association between famine exposure in early life and metabolic syndrome risk in adults. The metabolic syndrome prevalence in non-, fetal-, early childhood-, mid childhood-, and late childhood- exposed groups were 25.2%, 26.9%, 30.3%, 32.7%, and 32.7%, respectively. Compared with non-exposed group, participants exposed to famine in the fetal (0.96, 95% CI: 0.77-1.20), early childhood (1.24, 95% CI: 1.01-1.52), mid childhood (1.39, 95% CI: 1.13-1.72), and late childhood (1.33, 95% CI: 1.08-1.63) had higher metabolic syndrome prevalence risk in adults after adjustment for potential confounders (P for trend metabolic syndrome prevalence risk than non-exposed women (P for trend metabolic syndrome prevalence risk (P for interaction = 0.0001). Results in the present study indicated that exposure to famine in early life increases the risk of metabolic syndrome in adulthood, particularly in women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Vitamin D and calcium intake and risk of early menopause12

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purdue-Smithe, Alexandra C; Whitcomb, Brian W; Szegda, Kathleen L; Boutot, Maegan E; Manson, JoAnn E; Hankinson, Susan E; Rosner, Bernard A; Troy, Lisa M; Michels, Karin B; Bertone-Johnson, Elizabeth R

    2017-01-01

    Background: Early menopause, defined as the cessation of ovarian function before the age of 45 y, affects ∼10% of women and is associated with higher risk of cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, and other conditions. Few modifiable risk factors for early menopause have been identified, but emerging data suggest that high vitamin D intake may reduce risk. Objective: We evaluated how intakes of vitamin D and calcium are associated with the incidence of early menopause in the prospective Nurses’ Health Study II (NHS2). Design: Intakes of vitamin D and calcium from foods and supplements were measured every 4 y with the use of a food-frequency questionnaire. Cases of incident early menopause were identified from all participants who were premenopausal at baseline in 1991; over 1.13 million person-years, 2041 women reported having natural menopause before the age of 45 y. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate relations between intakes of vitamin D and calcium and incident early menopause while accounting for potential confounding factors. Results: After adjustment for age, smoking, and other factors, women with the highest intake of dietary vitamin D (quintile median: 528 IU/d) had a significant 17% lower risk of early menopause than women with the lowest intake [quintile median: 148 IU/d; HR: 0.83 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.95); P-trend = 0.03]. Dietary calcium intake in the highest quintile (median: 1246 mg/d) compared with the lowest (median: 556 mg/d) was associated with a borderline significantly lower risk of early menopause (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.76, 1.00; P-trend = 0.03). Associations were stronger for vitamin D and calcium from dairy sources than from nondairy dietary sources, whereas high supplement use was not associated with lower risk. Conclusions: Findings suggest that high intakes of dietary vitamin D and calcium may be modestly associated with a lower risk of early menopause. Further studies evaluating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, other

  10. The Perinatal Risk Index: Early Risks Experienced by Domestic Adoptees in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marceau, Kristine; De Araujo-Greecher, Marielena; Miller, Emily S; Massey, Suena H; Mayes, Linda C; Ganiban, Jody M; Reiss, David; Shaw, Daniel S; Leve, Leslie D; Neiderhiser, Jenae M

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to assess comprehensively the prevalence of perinatal risks experienced by a potentially high-risk yet understudied population of children domestically adopted in the United States. Data are from participant report and medical records from mothers (n = 580) who completed a domestic adoption placement with nonrelatives at or near birth (Mean placement age = 7 days). We describe a comprehensive measure of perinatal risks, including divergences from previous assessment tools and the incorporation of multiple reporters, and report the prevalence of various types of perinatal risks. The prevalence of each specific risk factor was generally low, although several risks were more prevalent in this sample than estimates from nationally representative publicly available data. Nearly the entire sample (99%) experienced some type of risk exposure. Birth mothers who placed their children for adoption domestically in the US experience higher levels of perinatal risks than the national average, but not for all specific types of risk. Thus, the developmental trajectories of children adopted domestically may systematically differ from the general population to the extent that these specific perinatal risks impact development.

  11. Fetal exposure to lead during pregnancy and the risk of preterm and early-term deliveries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Lu; Zhang, Bin; Huo, Wenqian; Cao, Zhongqiang; Liu, Wenyu; Liao, Jiaqiang; Xia, Wei; Xu, Shunqing; Li, Yuanyuan

    2017-08-01

    Studies have reported the association between lead exposure during pregnancy and preterm birth. However, findings are still inconsistent. This prospective birth cohort study evaluated the risks of preterm and early-term births and its association with prenatal lead exposure in Hubei, China. A total of 7299 pregnant women were selected from the Healthy Baby Cohort. Maternal urinary lead levels were measured by the Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry. The associations between tertiles of urinary lead levels and the risks of preterm and early-term deliveries were assessed using multiple logistic regression models. The geometric mean of creatinine-adjusted urinary lead concentrations among all participating mothers, preterm birth, and early-term birth were 3.19, 3.68, and 3.17μg/g creatinine, respectively. A significant increase in the risk of preterm births was associated with the highest urinary lead tertile after adjusting for confounders with odds ratio (OR) of 1.96. The association was more pronounced among 25-36 years old mothers with OR of 2.03. Though significant p trends were observed between lead exposure (medium and high tertiles) and the risk of early-term births, their ORs were not significant. Our findings indicate that the risk of preterm birth might increase with higher fetal lead exposure, particularly among women between the age of 25 and 36 years. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  12. Postmenopausal osteoporosis: early screening of risk patients by spinal biphotonic absorptiometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabatier, J.P.; Guaydier-Souquieres, G.; Loyau, G.

    1990-01-01

    With quantification techniques of the spinal bone condition, especially with spinal biphotonic absorptiometry, early screening of patients risking subsequent development of osteoporosis complicated with vertebral compression is possible. An investigation was conducted in Lower Normandy, in 386 women who had undergone menopause or an ovariectomy, with ages ranging between 40 and 56 years; 274 were in a peri-menopausal state. A curve of the bone mineral content according to age was previously established. From this curve, in semilogarithmic representation, each patient risk was assessed. This risk is considered as high in 30 p. cent of the patients, non existent in 52 p. cent and 18 p. cent are borderline. The percentage of high risk patients increases with the number of years since menopause. It is hoped that the incidence of osteoporosis will decrease with early screening and preventive therapeutic measures [fr

  13. Adult height and risk of breast cancer: a possible effect of early nutrition

    OpenAIRE

    Nilsen, T I Lund; Vatten, L J

    2001-01-01

    The relationship of breast cancer to early reproductive development and height suggests that fetal and childhood nutrition may be important in its aetiology. Caloric restriction sufficient to reduce adult height may reduce breast cancer risk. During World War II (WWII) there was a marked reduction in average caloric intake in Norway that resulted in greater nutritional diversity. We hypothesized that a positive association between height and risk of breast cancer would be stronger among women...

  14. Imaging Frontostriatal Function in Ultra-High-Risk, Early, and Chronic Schizophrenia During Executive Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morey, Rajendra A.; Inan, Seniha; Mitchell, Teresa V.; Perkins, Diana O.; Lieberman, Jeffrey A.; Belger, Aysenil

    2009-01-01

    Context Individuals experiencing prodromal symptoms of schizophrenia (ultra-high-risk group) demonstrate impaired performance on tasks of executive function, attention, and working memory. The neurobiological underpinnings of such executive deficits in ultra-high-risk individuals remains unclear. Objective We assessed frontal and striatal functions during a visual oddball continuous performance task, in ultra-high-risk, early, and chronic schizophrenic patients with the use of functional magnetic resonance imaging. Design Cross-sectional case-control design. Setting Community; outpatient clinic. Patients Fifty-two individuals (control, n = 16; ultra-high risk, n = 10; early, n = 15; chronic, n = 11) from a referred clinical sample and age- and sex-matched control volunteers underwent scanning. Main Outcome Measures Percentage of active voxels and percentage signal change calculated for the anterior cingulate gyrus (ACG), middle frontal gyrus (MFG), inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), basal ganglia, and thalamus. Performance on the visual oddball task was measured with percentage of hits and d′ (a measure based on the hit rate and the false-alarm rate). Results The ultra-high-risk group showed significantly smaller differential activation between task-relevant and task-irrelevant stimuli in the frontal regions (ACG, IFG, MFG) than the control group. Frontostriatal activation associated with target stimuli in the early and chronic groups was significantly lower than the control group, while the ultra-high-risk group showed a trend toward the early group. Conclusions Our findings suggest that prefrontal function begins to decline before the onset of syndromally defined illness and hence may represent a vulnerability marker in assessing the risk of developing psychotic disorders among ultra-high-risk individuals. PMID:15753238

  15. Risk Factors for Early-Onset Peritonitis in Southern Chinese Peritoneal Dialysis Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Haishan; Huang, Rong; Yi, Chunyan; Wu, Juan; Guo, Qunying; Zhou, Qian; Yu, Xueqing; Yang, Xiao

    ♦ BACKGROUND: Early peritonitis was confirmed to be associated with a higher risk of early technique failure. However, literature concerning peritonitis within the first 3 months of peritoneal dialysis (PD) initiation is scarce. The present study was to investigate risk factors associated with early-onset peritonitis in PD patients. ♦ METHODS: In this retrospective observational cohort study, all incident PD patients from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2013, were recruited and followed up until December 31, 2014. According to time-to-first episode of peritonitis, patients were divided into early-onset (≤ 3 months) peritonitis and late-onset (> 3 months) peritonitis. Baseline demographic, clinical, and laboratory data, as well as episodes of peritonitis, were collected. Risk factors associated with early-onset peritonitis were evaluated using logistic regression model. ♦ RESULTS: Of 1,690 patients on PD, 503 (29.8%) developed at least 1 episode of peritonitis and 118 (7.0%) patients presented the first episodes of peritonitis within the first 3 months. A multivariate logistic analysis showed that higher body mass index (BMI) (odds ratio [OR] 1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01 - 1.15, p = 0.034), hypoalbuminemia (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.11 - 2.78, p = 0.017), and catheter exit-site infection (OR 4.14, 95% CI 2.45 - 7.00, p peritonitis. Compared to those with late-onset, patients with early-onset peritonitis had a higher overall peritonitis rate (0.76 vs 0.38 per patient-year, p 0.05). ♦ CONCLUSIONS: Higher BMI, hypoalbuminemia, and catheter exit-site infection were the risk factors associated with early-onset peritonitis in PD patients. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Peritoneal Dialysis.

  16. Validation of an early childhood caries risk assessment tool in a low-income Hispanic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custodio-Lumsden, Christie L; Wolf, Randi L; Contento, Isobel R; Basch, Charles E; Zybert, Patricia A; Koch, Pamela A; Edelstein, Burton L

    2016-03-01

    There is a recognized need for valid risk assessment tools for use by both dental and nondental personnel to identify young children at risk for, or with, precavitated stages of early childhood caries (i.e., early stage decalcifications or white spot lesions).The aim of this study is to establish concurrent criterion validity of "MySmileBuddy" (MSB), a novel technology-assisted ECC risk assessment and behavioral intervention tool against four measures of ECC activity: semi-quantitative assays of salivary mutans streptococci levels, visible quantity of dental plaque, visual evidence of enamel decalcifications, and cavitation status (none, ECC, severe ECC). One hundred eight children 2-6 years of age presenting to a pediatric dental clinic were recruited from a predominantly Spanish-speaking, low-income, urban population. All children received a comprehensive oral examination and saliva culture for assessment of ECC indicators. Their caregivers completed the iPad-based MSB assessment in its entirety (15-20 minutes). MSB calculated both diet and comprehensive ECC risk scores. Associations between all variables were determined using ordinal logistic regression. MSB diet risk scores were significantly positively associated with salivary mutans (P valid risk assessment tool for identifying children with early precursors of cavitations but does not add value in identifying children with extant lesions. © 2015 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  17. Cancer and the risk for taking early retirement pension: a Danish cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlsen, Kathrine; Oksbjerg Dalton, Susanne; Frederiksen, Kirsten

    2008-01-01

    , physical and psychological comorbidity, low education and low income. Three risk categories were identified (high, medium and low) by cancer site and we found that in the high risk category, people diagnosed with leukemia, prostate cancer or ovary cancer had a more than two-fold increased risk for ERP......AIMS: The purpose of this study was to determine the risk for taking early retirement pension (ERP) in cancer survivors who were working at the time of diagnosis. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide and population based cohort study including 44,905 persons aged 30-60 years diagnosed with selected...... cancers in the period 1981-2000 and 211,562 randomly sampled cancer-free controls. Information on socioeconomic status, demography and physical and psychiatric comorbidity was obtained from Danish administrative registries. RESULTS: We analyzed the risk for ERP adjusted for known risk factors and found...

  18. Polycystic ovary syndrome and early-onset preeclampsia: reproductive manifestations of increased cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veltman-Verhulst, Susanne M; van Rijn, Bas B; Westerveld, H Egbertine; Franx, Arie; Bruinse, Hein W; Fauser, Bart C J M; Goverde, Angelique J

    2010-01-01

    Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women is a major healthcare issue. Detection of premenopausal women with increased risk of CVD could enhance prevention strategies and reduce first event-related morbidity and mortality. In this study, we argue that an unfavorable metabolic constitution in women may present itself early in life as a reproductive complication, such as polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and preeclampsia. We evaluated the cardiovascular risk of women with a history of early-onset preeclampsia and women with PCOS and assessed their need for implementation of early risk factor-reduction strategies. We performed a standardized evaluation of 240 women with a history of early-onset preeclampsia and 456 women diagnosed with PCOS for established major CVD risk factors. Metabolic syndrome characteristics were analyzed per body mass index category. Mean age was 30.6 and 29.0 years for women with preeclampsia and PCOS, respectively. High percentages of metabolic syndrome were found in both groups (preeclampsia group, 14.6%; and PCOS group, 18.4%), with an incidence of greater than 50% in both groups of women if body mass index was greater than 30 kg/m. Overall, more than 90% of the women qualified for either lifestyle or medical intervention according to the American Heart Association guideline for CVD prevention in women. Women with PCOS and early-onset preeclampsia already show an unfavorable cardiovascular risk profile with high need for lifestyle or medical intervention at a young age. We therefore recommend an active role of the gynecologist in routine screening and follow-up of women with reproductive conditions linked to future cardiovascular risk.

  19. Psychometric properties of the Cumulated Ambulation Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferriero, Giorgio; Kristensen, Morten T; Invernizzi, Marco

    2018-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: In the geriatric population, independent mobility is a key factor in determining readiness for discharge following acute hospitalization. The Cumulated Ambulation Score (CAS) is a potentially valuable score that allows day-to-day measurements of basic mobility. The CAS was developed...... and validated in older patients with hip fracture as an early postoperative predictor of short-term outcome, but it is also used to assess geriatric in-patients with acute medical illness. Despite the fast- accumulating literature on the CAS, to date no systematic review synthesizing its psychometric properties....... Of 49 studies identified, 17 examined the psychometric properties of the CAS. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Most papers dealt with patients after hip fracture surgery, and only 4 studies assessed the CAS psychometric characteristics also in geriatric in-patients with acute medical illness. Two versions of CAS...

  20. Cumulative childhood stress and autoimmune diseases in adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dube, Shanta R; Fairweather, DeLisa; Pearson, William S; Felitti, Vincent J; Anda, Robert F; Croft, Janet B

    2009-02-01

    To examine whether childhood traumatic stress increased the risk of developing autoimmune diseases as an adult. Retrospective cohort study of 15,357 adult health maintenance organization members enrolled in the Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) Study from 1995 to 1997 in San Diego, California, and eligible for follow-up through 2005. ACEs included childhood physical, emotional, or sexual abuse; witnessing domestic violence; growing up with household substance abuse, mental illness, parental divorce, and/or an incarcerated household member. The total number of ACEs (ACE Score range = 0-8) was used as a measure of cumulative childhood stress. The outcome was hospitalizations for any of 21 selected autoimmune diseases and 4 immunopathology groupings: T- helper 1 (Th1) (e.g., idiopathic myocarditis); T-helper 2 (Th2) (e.g., myasthenia gravis); Th2 rheumatic (e.g., rheumatoid arthritis); and mixed Th1/Th2 (e.g., autoimmune hemolytic anemia). Sixty-four percent reported at least one ACE. The event rate (per 10,000 person-years) for a first hospitalization with any autoimmune disease was 31.4 in women and 34.4 in men. First hospitalizations for any autoimmune disease increased with increasing number of ACEs (p or=2 ACEs were at a 70% increased risk for hospitalizations with Th1, 80% increased risk for Th2, and 100% increased risk for rheumatic diseases (p Childhood traumatic stress increased the likelihood of hospitalization with a diagnosed autoimmune disease decades into adulthood. These findings are consistent with recent biological studies on the impact of early life stress on subsequent inflammatory responses.

  1. Early Risk Factors for Alcohol Use Across High School and Its Covariation With Deviant Friends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Jeffrey M.; Ruttle, Paula L.; Burk, Linnea R.; Costanzo, Philip R.; Strauman, Timothy J.; Essex, Marilyn J.

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Past research has associated childhood characteristics and experiences with alcohol use at single time points in adolescence. Other work has focused on drinking trajectories across adolescence but with risk factors typically no earlier than middle or high school. Similarly, although the connection between underage drinking and affiliation with deviant friends is well established, early risk factors for their covariation across adolescence are uncertain. The present study examines the influence of early individual and contextual factors on (a) trajectories across high school of per-occasion alcohol use and (b) the covariation of alcohol use and deviant friends over time. Method: In a longitudinal community sample (n = 374; 51% female), temperamental disinhibition, authoritarian and authoritative parenting, and parental alcohol use were assessed during childhood, and adolescents reported on alcohol use and affiliation with deviant friends in the spring of Grades 9, 10, 11, and 12. Results: Early parental alcohol use predicted the intercept of adolescent drinking. Subsequent patterns of adolescent alcohol use were predicted by sex and interactions of sex and childhood disinhibition with early authoritarian parenting. Additionally, childhood disinhibition interacted with parental alcohol use to moderate the covariation of drinking and deviant friends. Conclusions: These findings highlight early individual and contextual risk factors for alcohol use across high school, extending previous work and underscoring the importance of developmental approaches and longitudinal techniques for understanding patterns of growth in underage drinking. PMID:23948534

  2. Early risk factors for alcohol use across high school and its covariation with deviant friends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Jeffrey M; Ruttle, Paula L; Burk, Linnea R; Costanzo, Philip R; Strauman, Timothy J; Essex, Marilyn J

    2013-09-01

    Past research has associated childhood characteristics and experiences with alcohol use at single time points in adolescence. Other work has focused on drinking trajectories across adolescence but with risk factors typically no earlier than middle or high school. Similarly, although the connection between underage drinking and affiliation with deviant friends is well established, early risk factors for their covariation across adolescence are uncertain. The present study examines the influence of early individual and contextual factors on (a) trajectories across high school of per-occasion alcohol use and (b) the covariation of alcohol use and deviant friends over time. In a longitudinal community sample (n = 374; 51% female), temperamental disinhibition, authoritarian and authoritative parenting, and parental alcohol use were assessed during childhood, and adolescents reported on alcohol use and affiliation with deviant friends in the spring of Grades 9, 10, 11, and 12. Early parental alcohol use predicted the intercept of adolescent drinking. Subsequent patterns of adolescent alcohol use were predicted by sex and interactions of sex and childhood disinhibition with early authoritarian parenting. Additionally, childhood disinhibition interacted with parental alcohol use to moderate the covariation of drinking and deviant friends. These findings highlight early individual and contextual risk factors for alcohol use across high school, extending previous work and underscoring the importance of developmental approaches and longitudinal techniques for understanding patterns of growth in underage drinking.

  3. Individualized early prediction of familial risk of dyslexia : A study of infant vocabulary development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Ao; Wijnen, Frank; Koster, Charlotte; Schnack, Hugo

    2017-01-01

    We examined early vocabulary development in children at familial risk (FR) of dyslexia and typically developing (TD) children between 17 and 35 months of age. We trained a support vector machine to classify TD and FR using these vocabulary data at the individual level. The Dutch version of the

  4. The motivation for very early intervention for infants at high risk for autism spectrum disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Sara Jane; Jones, Emily J H; Kelly, Jean; Dawson, Geraldine

    2014-02-01

    The first Autism Research Matrix (IACC, 2003) listed the identification of behavioural and biological markers of risk for autism as a top priority. This emphasis was based on the hypothesis that intervention with infants at-risk, at an early age when the brain is developing and before core autism symptoms have emerged, could significantly alter the developmental trajectory of children at risk for the disorder and impact long-range outcome. Research has provided support for specific models of early autism intervention (e.g., Early Start Denver Model) for improving outcomes in young children with autism, based on both behavioural and brain activity measures. Although great strides have been made in ability to identify risk markers for autism in younger infant/toddler samples, how and when to intervene during the prodromal state remains a critical question. Emerging evidence suggests that abnormal brain circuitry in autism precedes altered social behaviours; thus, an intervention designed to promote early social engagement and reciprocity potentially could steer brain development back toward the normal trajectory and remit or reduce the expression of symptoms.

  5. Delayed Early Vocabulary Development in Children at Family Risk of Dyslexia

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Viersen, Sietske; de Bree, Elise H.; Verdam, Mathilde; Krikhaar, Evelien; Maassen, Ben; van der Leij, Aryan; de Jong, Peter F.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This study aimed to gain more insight into the relation between vocabulary and reading acquisition by examining early growth trajectories in the vocabulary of children at family risk (FR) of dyslexia longitudinally. Method: The sample included 212 children from the Dutch Dyslexia Program with and without an FR. Parents reported on their…

  6. Early motor development and later language and reading skills in children at risk of familial dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viholainen, Helena; Ahonen, Timo; Lyytinen, Paula; Cantell, Marja; Tolvanen, Asko; Lyytinen, Heikki

    2006-05-01

    Relationships between early motor development and language and reading skills were studied in 154 children, of whom 75 had familial risk of dyslexia (37 females, 38 males; at-risk group) and 79 constituted a control group (32 females, 47 males). Motor development was assessed by a structured parental questionnaire during the child's first year of life. Vocabulary and inflectional morphology skills were used as early indicators of language skills at 3 years 6 months and 5 years or 5 years 6 months of age, and reading speed was used as a later indicator of reading skills at 7 years of age. The same subgroups as in our earlier study (in which the cluster analysis was described) were used in this study. The three subgroups of the control group were 'fast motor development', 'slow fine motor development', and 'slow gross motor development', and the two subgroups of the at-risk group were 'slow motor development' and 'fast motor development'. A significant difference was found between the development of expressive language skills. Children with familial risk of dyslexia and slow motor development had a smaller vocabulary with poorer inflectional skills than the other children. They were also slower in their reading speed at the end of the first grade at the age of 7 years. Two different associations are discussed, namely the connection between early motor development and language development, and the connection between early motor development and reading speed.

  7. Early Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors, Conflict Resolution Strategies, and School Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaRusso, Maria; Selman, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Drawing upon an ethnically and socio-economically diverse sample of 323 7th grade students from twelve urban schools within one school district, this mixed method study examined early adolescents' self-reported health risk behaviors as related to their conflict resolution strategies and their school's conflict resolution climate. Survey data…

  8. Early trauma and familial risk in the development of the extended psychosis phenotype in adolescence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wigman, J. T. W.; van Winkel, R.; Ormel, J.; Verhulst, F. C.; van Os, J.; Vollebergh, W. A. M.

    2012-01-01

    Wigman JTW, van Winkel R, Ormel J, Verhulst FC, van Os J, Vollebergh WAM. Early trauma and familial risk in the development of the extended psychosis phenotype in adolescence. Objective: Both genetic and environmental factors are thought to play a role in the development of psychotic outcomes;

  9. Family Interactions, Exposure to Violence, and Emotion Regulation: Perceptions of Children and Early Adolescents at Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houltberg, Benjamin J.; Henry, Carolyn S.; Morris, Amanda Sheffield

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the protective nature of youth reports of family interactions in relation to perceived exposure to violence and anger regulation in 84 children and early adolescents (mean age of 10.5; 7-15 years old) primarily from ethnic minority groups and living in high-risk communities in a large southwestern city. Path analysis and…

  10. Increased risk of intraoperative and early postoperative periprosthetic femoral fracture with uncemented stems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg-Larsen, Martin; Jørgensen, Christoffer C.; Solgaard, Søren

    2017-01-01

    Background and purpose - The use of uncemented fixation in total hip arthroplasty (THA) is increasing. Registry studies have indicated an increased risk of revision of uncemented implants due to early periprosthetic femoral fracture. In this paper, we describe the incidence and predisposing facto...

  11. Early Detection of At-Risk Undergraduate Students through Academic Performance Predictors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowtho, Vikash

    2017-01-01

    Undergraduate student dropout is gradually becoming a global problem and the 39 Small Islands Developing States (SIDS) are no exception to this trend. The purpose of this research was to develop a method that can be used for early detection of students who are at-risk of performing poorly in their undergraduate studies. A sample of 279 students…

  12. Therapeutic Responses to "At Risk" Disengaged Early School Leavers in a Rural Alternative Education Programme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fish, Tim

    2017-01-01

    The identification of disengaged early school leavers as young people "at risk" can lead to a deficit-based framing of how educational institutions respond to them. A rural secondary school in Victoria, Australia established an alternative education programme to cater for local disengaged young people. A critical ethnographic study was…

  13. Incidences and Risk Factors of Organ Manifestations in the Early Course of Systemic Sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Veronika K; Wirz, Elina G; Allanore, Yannick

    2016-01-01

    risk factors associated with incident renal crisis. CONCLUSION: In SSc patients presenting early after RP onset, approximately half of all incident organ manifestations occur within 2 years and have a simultaneous rather than a sequential onset. These findings have implications for the design of new...

  14. Substance use risk profiles and associations with early substance use in adolescence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malmberg, M.; Overbeek, G.J.; Monshouwer, K.; Lammers, J.; Vollebergh, W.A.M.; Engels, R.C.M.E.

    2010-01-01

    We examined whether anxiety sensitivity, hopelessness, sensation seeking, and impulsivity (i.e., revised version of the Substance Use Risk Profile Scale) would be related to the lifetime prevalence and age of onset of alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis use, and to polydrug use in early adolescence.

  15. Familial risk of early suicide: variations by age and sex of children and parents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garssen, Joop; Deerenberg, Ingeborg; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Kerkhof, Ad; Kunst, Anton E.

    2011-01-01

    To determine familial risk of early suicide, data on cause of death of all Dutch residents aged 20-55 years who died between 1995 and 2001 were linked to data of their parents. Men whose father died by suicide had a higher odds of suicide themselves, relative to men whose father died of other causes

  16. Early-life home environment and risk of asthma among inner-city children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, George T; Lynch, Susan V; Bloomberg, Gordon R; Kattan, Meyer; Wood, Robert A; Gergen, Peter J; Jaffee, Katy F; Calatroni, Agustin; Bacharier, Leonard B; Beigelman, Avrahman; Sandel, Megan T; Johnson, Christine C; Faruqi, Ali; Santee, Clark; Fujimura, Kei E; Fadrosh, Douglas; Boushey, Homer; Visness, Cynthia M; Gern, James E

    2018-04-01

    Environmental exposures in early life appear to play an important role in the pathogenesis of childhood asthma, but the potentially modifiable exposures that lead to asthma remain uncertain. We sought to identify early-life environmental risk factors for childhood asthma in a birth cohort of high-risk inner-city children. We examined the relationship of prenatal and early-life environmental factors to the occurrence of asthma at 7 years of age among 442 children. Higher house dust concentrations of cockroach, mouse, and cat allergens in the first 3 years of life were associated with lower risk of asthma (for cockroach allergen: odds ratio per interquartile range increase in concentration, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-0.86; P < .01). House dust microbiome analysis using 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing identified 202 and 171 bacterial taxa that were significantly (false discovery rate < 0.05) more or less abundant, respectively, in the homes of children with asthma. A majority of these bacteria were significantly correlated with 1 of more allergen concentrations. Other factors associated significantly positively with asthma included umbilical cord plasma cotinine concentration (odds ratio per geometric SD increase in concentration, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.00-3.09; P = .048) and maternal stress and depression scores. Among high-risk inner-city children, higher indoor levels of pet or pest allergens in infancy were associated with lower risk of asthma. The abundance of a number of bacterial taxa in house dust was associated with increased or decreased asthma risk. Prenatal tobacco smoke exposure and higher maternal stress and depression scores in early life were associated with increased asthma risk. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. All rights reserved.

  17. Association Between Cesarean Birth and Risk of Obesity in Offspring in Childhood, Adolescence, and Early Adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Changzheng; Gaskins, Audrey J; Blaine, Arianna I; Zhang, Cuilin; Gillman, Matthew W; Missmer, Stacey A; Field, Alison E; Chavarro, Jorge E

    2016-11-07

    Cesarean birth has been associated with higher risk of obesity in offspring, but previous studies have focused primarily on childhood obesity and have been hampered by limited control for confounders. To investigate the association between cesarean birth and risk of obesity in offspring. A prospective cohort study was conducted from September 1, 1996, to December 31, 2012, among participants of the Growing Up Today Study, including 22 068 offspring born to 15 271 women, followed up via questionnaire from ages 9 to 14 through ages 20 to 28 years. Data analysis was conducted from October 10, 2015, to June 14, 2016. Birth by cesarean delivery. Risk of obesity based on International Obesity Task Force or World Health Organization body mass index cutoffs, depending on age. Secondary outcomes included risks of obesity associated with changes in mode of delivery and differences in risk between siblings whose modes of birth were discordant. Of the 22 068 offspring (20 950 white; 9359 male and 12 709 female), 4921 individuals (22.3%) were born by cesarean delivery. The cumulative risk of obesity through the end of follow-up was 13% among all participants. The adjusted risk ratio for obesity among offspring delivered via cesarean birth vs those delivered via vaginal birth was 1.15 (95% CI, 1.06-1.26; P = .002). This association was stronger among women without known indications for cesarean delivery (adjusted risk ratio, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.09-1.54; P = .004). Offspring delivered via vaginal birth among women who had undergone a previous cesarean delivery had a 31% (95% CI, 17%-47%) lower risk of obesity compared with those born to women with repeated cesarean deliveries. In within-family analysis, individuals born by cesarean delivery had 64% (8%-148%) higher odds of obesity than did their siblings born via vaginal delivery. Cesarean birth was associated with offspring obesity after accounting for major confounding factors. Although additional research is

  18. The Algebra of the Cumulative Percent Operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Andrew J.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses how to help students avoid some pervasive reasoning errors in solving cumulative percent problems. Discusses the meaning of ."%+b%." the additive inverse of ."%." and other useful applications. Emphasizes the operational aspect of the cumulative percent concept. (KHR)

  19. Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

    2012-05-21

    The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Governance of Public Benefit Funds to Promote Innovation in Energy by Addressing Early Adopter Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paterson, Andrew; Oppenheim, Jerrold; Dubravka Pineda, Maria

    2010-09-15

    Building a better energy future will be expensive, in part, because it will require modernizing energy infrastructure and bringing more innovative technologies to deliver energy more efficiently to consumers with less environmental impact. With the extended recession and turmoil in credit markets in 2008, some states have turned to public benefit funds to address critical risks in adopting innovative energy technologies and systems. This paper updates valuable observations for governing PBFs to promote wider adoption of innovative energy technologies enabling a better balance of risk and return in concert with other policy tools by negotiating mitigation of early adopter risks.

  1. Interpersonal Callousness from Childhood to Adolescence: Developmental Trajectories and Early Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Amy L; Hawes, Samuel W; Loeber, Rolf; Pardini, Dustin A

    2018-01-01

    Youth with a callous interpersonal style, consistent with features of adult psychopathy (e.g., lack of guilt, deceitful), are at risk for exhibiting severe and protracted antisocial behaviors. However, no studies have examined changes that occur in interpersonal callousness (IC) from childhood to adolescence, and little is known about the influence of early child, social, and contextual factors on trajectories of IC. The current study examined distinct patterns of IC across childhood and adolescence and associations with early risk factors. Participants were an at-risk sample of 503 boys (56% African American) assessed annually from around ages 7-15. Analyses examined child (anger dysregulation, fearfulness), social (peer, family, maltreatment), and contextual (psychosocial adversity) factors associated with teacher-reported IC trajectories across childhood and adolescence. Using latent class growth analysis, five trajectories of IC were identified (early-onset chronic, childhood-limited, adolescent-onset, moderate, low). Approximately 10% of boys followed an early-onset chronic trajectory, and a roughly equal percent of youth followed childhood-limited trajectory (10%) or an adolescent-onset trajectory (12%) of IC across development. Specifically, half of the boys with high IC in childhood did not continue to exhibit significant levels of these features into adolescence, whereas an equal proportion of youth with low IC in childhood demonstrated increasing levels during the transition to adolescence. Boys in the early-onset chronic group were characterized by the most risk factors and were differentiated from those with childhood-limited and adolescent-onset IC only by higher conduct problems, fearlessness, and emotional abuse/neglect. Findings are discussed in terms of developmental models of IC and several avenues for early targeted interventions.

  2. From risk-seeking to risk-averse: The development of economic risk preference from early childhood to adulthood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Paulsen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Adolescence is often described as a period of heightened risk-taking. Adolescents are notorious for impulsivity, emotional volatility, and risky behaviors such as drinking under the influence of alcohol. By contrast, we found that risk-taking declines linearly from childhood to adulthood when individuals make choices over monetary gambles. Further, with age we found increases in the sensitivity to economic risk, defined as the degree to which a preference for assured monetary gains over a risky payoff depends upon the variability in the risky payoff. These findings indicate that decisions about economic risk may follow a different developmental trajectory than other kinds of risk taking, and that changes in sensitivity to risk may be a major factor in the development of mature risk aversion.

  3. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16... § 651.16 Cumulative impacts. (a) NEPA analyses must assess cumulative effects, which are the impact on the environment resulting from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present...

  4. Maintenance hemodialysis patients have high cumulative radiation exposure.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kinsella, Sinead M

    2010-10-01

    Hemodialysis is associated with an increased risk of neoplasms which may result, at least in part, from exposure to ionizing radiation associated with frequent radiographic procedures. In order to estimate the average radiation exposure of those on hemodialysis, we conducted a retrospective study of 100 patients in a university-based dialysis unit followed for a median of 3.4 years. The number and type of radiological procedures were obtained from a central radiology database, and the cumulative effective radiation dose was calculated using standardized, procedure-specific radiation levels. The median annual radiation dose was 6.9 millisieverts (mSv) per patient-year. However, 14 patients had an annual cumulative effective radiation dose over 20 mSv, the upper averaged annual limit for occupational exposure. The median total cumulative effective radiation dose per patient over the study period was 21.7 mSv, in which 13 patients had a total cumulative effective radiation dose over 75 mSv, a value reported to be associated with a 7% increased risk of cancer-related mortality. Two-thirds of the total cumulative effective radiation dose was due to CT scanning. The average radiation exposure was significantly associated with the cause of end-stage renal disease, history of ischemic heart disease, transplant waitlist status, number of in-patient hospital days over follow-up, and death during the study period. These results highlight the substantial exposure to ionizing radiation in hemodialysis patients.

  5. Early brain development in infants at high risk for autism spectrum disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazlett, Heather Cody; Gu, Hongbin; Munsell, Brent C; Kim, Sun Hyung; Styner, Martin; Wolff, Jason J; Elison, Jed T; Swanson, Meghan R; Zhu, Hongtu; Botteron, Kelly N; Collins, D Louis; Constantino, John N; Dager, Stephen R; Estes, Annette M; Evans, Alan C; Fonov, Vladimir S; Gerig, Guido; Kostopoulos, Penelope; McKinstry, Robert C; Pandey, Juhi; Paterson, Sarah; Pruett, John R; Schultz, Robert T; Shaw, Dennis W; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Piven, Joseph

    2017-02-15

    Brain enlargement has been observed in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but the timing of this phenomenon, and the relationship between ASD and the appearance of behavioural symptoms, are unknown. Retrospective head circumference and longitudinal brain volume studies of two-year olds followed up at four years of age have provided evidence that increased brain volume may emerge early in development. Studies of infants at high familial risk of autism can provide insight into the early development of autism and have shown that characteristic social deficits in ASD emerge during the latter part of the first and in the second year of life. These observations suggest that prospective brain-imaging studies of infants at high familial risk of ASD might identify early postnatal changes in brain volume that occur before an ASD diagnosis. In this prospective neuroimaging study of 106 infants at high familial risk of ASD and 42 low-risk infants, we show that hyperexpansion of the cortical surface area between 6 and 12 months of age precedes brain volume overgrowth observed between 12 and 24 months in 15 high-risk infants who were diagnosed with autism at 24 months. Brain volume overgrowth was linked to the emergence and severity of autistic social deficits. A deep-learning algorithm that primarily uses surface area information from magnetic resonance imaging of the brain of 6-12-month-old individuals predicted the diagnosis of autism in individual high-risk children at 24 months (with a positive predictive value of 81% and a sensitivity of 88%). These findings demonstrate that early brain changes occur during the period in which autistic behaviours are first emerging.

  6. A paradox of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

    2015-08-21

    Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A prevalência cumulativa de fatores de risco para doença cardiovascular em adolescentes iranianos: IHHP-HHPC Cumulative prevalence of risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases in Iranian adolescents: IHHP-HHPC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roya Kelishadi

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Avaliar a prevalência cumulativa dos fatores de risco para a doença cardiovascular aterosclerótica numa amostra de adolescentes iranianos. MÉTODOS: Foi realizado um estudo transversal com 1000 meninas e 1000 meninos, com idade entre 11 e 18 anos, selecionados através de uma amostragem aleatória multietapas à base de conglomerados das áreas urbana e rural de três cidades iranianas. RESULTADOS: As taxas de prevalência de inatividade física, dislipidemia, tabagismo, pressão arterial alta e obesidade (índice de massa corporal >P95 foram 66,6, 23,7, 8,7, 5,7 e 2,2%, respectivamente. Dentre os indivíduos estudados, 79,1% apresentaram pelo menos um e 24,6% tiveram dois fatores de risco para doença cardiovascular. A prevalência de inatividade física foi significativamente menor entre os meninos que entre as meninas [53,9 contra 79,3%, respectivamente, OR IC95%, 0,44 (0,39-0,51]. A prevalência de tabagismo foi maior nos meninos que nas meninas [13,1 contra 4,2%, respectivamente, OR IC95%, 3,4 (2,4-4,9]. CONCLUSÃO: Considerando a alta prevalência de fatores de risco para doença cardiovascular em adolescentes, deve-se garantir intervenções que sejam adequadas à idade e sensíveis a aspectos culturais para que medidas preventivas possam ser tomadas em tempo hábil.OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cumulative prevalence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk factors in a representative sample of Iranian adolescents. METHODS: The subjects of this cross-sectional study were 1,000 girls and 1,000 boys, ages 11-18 years, selected by multi stage-random cluster sampling from urban and rural areas of three cities in Iran. RESULTS: The prevalence of physical inactivity, dyslipidemia, smoking, high blood pressure and obesity (body mass index >95th percentile were 66.6, 23.7, 8.7, 5.7 and 2.2%, respectively. Of subjects studied, 79.1% had at least one and 24.6% had two cardiovascular disease risk factors. The prevalence of physical

  8. Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nilsson, H.; Rieskamp, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2011-01-01

    Cumulative prospect theory (CPT Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) has provided one of the most influential accounts of how people make decisions under risk. CPT is a formal model with parameters that quantify psychological processes such as loss aversion, subjective values of gains and losses, and

  9. Early Life Stress Increases Metabolic Risk, HPA Axis Reactivity, and Depressive-Like Behavior When Combined with Postweaning Social Isolation in Rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, Javier; Junco, Mariana; Gomez, Carlos; Lajud, Naima

    2016-01-01

    Early-life stress is associated with depression and metabolic abnormalities that increase the risk of cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Such associations could be due to increased glucocorticoid levels. Periodic maternal separation in the neonate and rearing in social isolation are potent stressors that increase hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis activity. Moreover, social isolation promotes feed intake and body weight gain in rats subjected to periodic maternal separation; however, its effects on metabolic risks have not been described. In the present study, we evaluated whether periodic maternal separation, social isolation rearing, and a combination of these two stressors (periodic maternal separation + social isolation rearing) impair glucose homeostasis and its relation to the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis and depressive-like behavior. Periodic maternal separation increased basal corticosterone levels, induced a passive coping strategy in the forced swimming test, and was associated with a mild (24%) increase in fasting glucose, insulin resistance, and dyslipidemia. Rearing in social isolation increased stress reactivity in comparison to both controls and in combination with periodic maternal separation, without affecting the coping strategy associated with the forced swimming test. However, social isolation also increased body weight gain, fasting glucose (120%), and insulin levels in rats subjected to periodic maternal separation. Correlation analyses showed that stress-induced effects on coping strategy on the forced swimming test (but not on metabolic risk markers) are associated with basal corticosterone levels. These findings suggest that maternal separation and postweaning social isolation affect stress and metabolic vulnerability differentially and that early-life stress-related effects on metabolism are not directly dependent on glucocorticoid levels. In conclusion, our study supports the cumulative stress hypothesis, which suggests that

  10. Early Childhood Risk Factors for Mealtime TV Exposure and Engagement in Low-Income Families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domoff, Sarah E; Lumeng, Julie C; Kaciroti, Niko; Miller, Alison L

    To identify whether child and mother characteristics in early childhood predict TV exposure and engagement during mealtime in middle childhood. A total of 220 low-income mother-child dyads participated. Children were 4.26 years old (SD = 0.51) at baseline and 5.94 years (SD = 0.68) at 2-year follow-up. Mothers completed baseline measures of child negative emotionality and parenting practices. Family mealtimes were video recorded and coded for background TV exposure and child TV engagement. Multinomial logistic regression tested whether child emotionality and parenting practices during early childhood predicted risk of child TV exposure or engagement during mealtime, relative to no TV use, 2 years later. Children with greater negative emotionality in early childhood were more likely to engage with TV during mealtime than to have no TV. Similarly, early parenting disciplinary practices characterized by over-reactivity and laxness increased the risk for child TV engagement versus no TV during mealtime approximately 2 years later. We identified 2 factors that associated with an increased risk for TV viewing during meals. Helping parents manage child negative emotionality using positive parenting strategies might reduce later child TV engagement and improve the quality of family mealtimes. Copyright © 2016 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Information systems in a changing climate: Early warnings and drought risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger S. Pulwarty

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Drought is among the most damaging, and least understood, of all “natural” hazards. Although some droughts last a single season and affect only small areas, the instrumental and paleoclimate records show that droughts have sometimes continued for decades and have impacted millions of square kilometers in North America, West Africa, and East Asia. To cross the spectrum of potential drivers and impacts, drought information systems have multiple sub-systems which include an integrated risk assessment, communication and decision support system of which early warning is a central component and output. An early warning system is much more than a forecast – it is a linked risk information (including people׳s perception of risk and communication system that actively engages communities involved in preparedness. There are numerous drought systems warning systems being implemented at different scales of governance. We draw on the lessons of over 21 drought early warning systems around the world, in both developing and developed countries and at regional, national and community levels. The successes illustrate that effective early warning depends upon a multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration among all concerned actors at each stage in the warning process from monitoring to response and evaluation. However, the links between the community-based approach and the national and global EWSs are relatively weak. Using the rich experience of information systems across the globe, this paper identifies pathways for knowledge management and action at the relevant scales for decision-making in response to a changing climate.

  12. Change in Overweight from Childhood to Early Adulthood and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerregaard, Lise G; Jensen, Britt W; Ängquist, Lars; Osler, Merete; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Baker, Jennifer L

    2018-04-05

    Childhood overweight is associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes in adulthood. We investigated whether remission of overweight before early adulthood reduces this risk. We conducted a study involving 62,565 Danish men whose weights and heights had been measured at 7 and 13 years of age and in early adulthood (17 to 26 years of age). Overweight was defined in accordance with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. Data on type 2 diabetes status (at age ≥30 years, 6710 persons) were obtained from a national health registry. Overweight at 7 years of age (3373 of 62,565 men; 5.4%), 13 years of age (3418 of 62,565; 5.5%), or early adulthood (5108 of 62,565; 8.2%) was positively associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes; associations were stronger at older ages at overweight and at younger ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes. Men who had had remission of overweight before the age of 13 years had a risk of having type 2 diabetes diagnosed at 30 to 60 years of age that was similar to that among men who had never been overweight (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 1.21). As compared with men who had never been overweight, men who had been overweight at 7 and 13 years of age but not during early adulthood had a higher risk of type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.98), but their risk was lower than that among men with persistent overweight (hazard ratio [persistently overweight vs. never overweight], 4.14; 95% CI, 3.57 to 4.79). An increase in body-mass index between 7 years of age and early adulthood was associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes, even among men whose weight had been normal at 7 years of age. Childhood overweight at 7 years of age was associated with increased risks of adult type 2 diabetes only if it continued until puberty or later ages. (Funded by the European Union.).

  13. Early interventions for youths at high risk for bipolar disorder: a developmental approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benarous, Xavier; Consoli, Angèle; Milhiet, Vanessa; Cohen, David

    2016-03-01

    In recent decades, ongoing research programmes on primary prevention and early identification of bipolar disorder (BD) have been developed. The aim of this article is to review the principal forms of evidence that support preventive interventions for BD in children and adolescents and the main challenges associated with these programmes. We performed a literature review of the main computerised databases (MEDLINE, PUBMED) and a manual search of the literature relevant to prospective and retrospective studies of prodromal symptoms, premorbid stages, risk factors, and early intervention programmes for BD. Genetic and environmental risk factors of BD were identified. Most of the algorithms used to measure the risk of developing BD and the early interventions programmes focused on the familial risk. The prodromal signs varied greatly and were age dependent. During adolescence, depressive episodes associated with genetic or environmental risk factors predicted the onset of hypomanic/manic episodes over subsequent years. In prepubertal children, the lack of specificity of clinical markers and difficulties in mood assessment were seen as impeding preventive interventions at these ages. Despite encouraging results, biomarkers have not thus far been sufficiently validated in youth samples to serve as screening tools for prevention. Additional longitudinal studies in youths at high risk of developing BD should include repeated measures of putative biomarkers. Staging models have been developed as an integrative approach to specify the individual level of risk based on clinical (e.g. prodromal symptoms and familial history of BD) and non-clinical (e.g. biomarkers and neuroimaging) data. However, there is still a lack of empirically validated studies that measure the benefits of using these models to design preventive intervention programmes.

  14. Early warning system of drought for risk assessment and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chub, V.E.; Agaltseva, N.A.; Myagkov, S.V.

    2004-01-01

    In Article 10 point 2 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification and Drought it is pointed out that the National Action Plans 'envisage the strengthening of the national basis of the climatic, meteorological and hydrological studies and the extending the possibilities for the creation of the system of the early drought forecasting'. The Pilot Project << Early warning system of Drought,, was executed in Uzbekistan at support of Germany project on Convention to combat Desertification (GTZ-CCD). The objective of the project is the creation of the regional automated information system for the early drought warning (AISEWS). In the framework of the project it is proposed to fulfil the main following tasks: - development of concepts of preparing the databases on drought factors and keeping on the databank of drought conditions on territory of Republic Uzbekistan; - the creation of the regional informational basis of the hydro meteorological and agrometeorological information and the system of its keeping on the basis of GIS technique; - analysis of hydro meteorological situations causing the drought in the Aral sea basin; - experimental agrometeorological (in the course of the field studies) and numerical estimation of the parameters of the model of the runoff formation and soil drought; - adaptation of the models complex set of the runoff formation for hydrological objects; - development of out the technique for the long-term drought forecasting basing on the mathematical models of the runoff formation in the river basin; -development of the computer information system for the early drought forecasting with the elements of the operational information transfer to the users. For the Central Asian region the drought means, first of all, the deficit of the water resources that is why the forecasting of the water availability in rivers in the years with the water deficit is of the utmost importance. The following tasks should be fulfilled for the achieving the designed

  15. The scientific foundations and associated injury risks of early soccer specialisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Paul J; Oliver, Jon L; De Ste Croix, Mark B A; Myer, Gregory D; Lloyd, Rhodri S

    2016-12-01

    Early specialisation is characterised by formal participation in a single sport at the exclusion of others. Limited data are available to support this approach in the development of soccer players who attain elite status later in life. Of growing concern is the associated increased risk of injury and suggestions that single sport specialisation is a risk factor independent of age, growth, biological maturation and training volumes. In the United Kingdom, elite soccer organisations have recently adopted an early sport specialisation approach following the introduction of the Elite Player Performance Plan. A key tenet of this programme is increased opportunities for training through a marked rise in the specified on-pitch hours per week. The accumulation of high training hours may be less of a relevant marker for success, and the impact of such a significant increase in training volume for young athletes who are experiencing a range of growth and maturational processes is currently unknown. This critical commentary includes an evidence-based discussion of the effectiveness of early sport specialisation and the potential injury risks associated with such programmes placing a specific focus on elite male youth soccer players. Available data indicate that modifications to the existing Elite Player Performance Plan framework could enhance players' development and reduce injury risk. Proposed alterations include reduced volume of soccer-specific training at key stages of growth and maturation and guidelines for the provision of a greater variety of physical activities that are integrated within other programme components.

  16. Dairy Consumption in Adolescence and Early Adulthood and Risk of Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farvid, Maryam S; Eliassen, A Heather; Cho, Eunyoung; Chen, Wendy Y; Willett, Walter C

    2018-05-01

    Background: Carcinogenic exposure in early life may be critical for subsequent breast cancer risk. Dairy consumption was examined during adolescence and early adulthood in relation to incident breast cancer in the Nurses' Health Study II cohort. Methods: For the analyses of early adulthood dairy consumption, we included 90,503 premenopausal women ages 27 to 44 years in 1991 who reported dairy consumption using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. From 1991 to 2013, 3,191 invasive breast cancer cases were identified. In 1998, 44,264 women recalled adolescent dairy consumption. This subgroup of women was followed up from 1998 to 2013; 1,318 invasive breast cancer cases were identified. Multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using the Cox proportional hazard regression. Results: Adolescent and early adulthood total dairy consumption was not associated with overall breast cancer risk (each serving/day during adolescence, total dairy HR = 1.02, 95% CI, 0.97-1.07; for early adulthood total dairy HR = 1.01, 95% CI, 0.97-1.04), as were intakes of calcium, vitamin D, and lactose. Adolescent consumption of total and high-fat dairy was associated with higher risk of estrogen and progesterone receptor negative (each serving/day: total dairy HR = 1.11, 95% CI, 1.00-1.24; high-fat dairy HR = 1.17, 95% CI, 1.04-1.31). However, higher adolescent high-fat dairy consumption was associated with lower risk of estrogen and progesterone receptor positive tumors (each serving/day HR = 0.91, 95% CI, 0.86-0.97). Conclusions: Our results suggest no overall association between dairy consumption during adolescence or early adulthood and breast cancer risk, but the findings may differ by hormone receptor status of tumors. Impact: Dairy consumption in adolescence or early adulthood may not be a significant predictor of breast cancer incidence. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(5); 575-84. ©2018 AACR . ©2018 American Association for Cancer

  17. Improving Early Identification and Intervention for Children at Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotholz, David A; Kinsman, Anne M; Lacy, Kathi K; Charles, Jane

    2017-02-01

    To provide an example of a successful, novel statewide effort to increase early identification of young children at risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using a 2-tiered screening process with enhanced quality assessment, interagency policy collaboration and coordination. The South Carolina Act Early Team (SCAET) provided focused collaboration among leaders representing state agencies, universities, health care systems, private organizations, and families to improve quality of life for children with ASD. Specific focus was on implementing policy changes and training to result in earlier identification and home-based behavioral intervention for young children at risk for ASD. Policy changes, training, and modified state agency practices were accomplished. Presumptive eligibility, on the basis of a 2-tiered screening process was implemented by BabyNet (South Carolina's Early Intervention Program) in collaboration with the lead agency for developmental disability services. There was a fivefold increase in children eligible for early intensive behavioral intervention without waiting for a diagnosis of ASD, avoiding long waits for diagnostic evaluations. Only 16 children (2.5%) were later found not to have ASD from a comprehensive evaluation. Improvements in early identification and intervention are feasible through collaborative policy change. The South Carolina Act Early Team and its key stakeholders committed to improving outcomes for this population used existing tools and methods in new ways to improve early identification of children with ASD and to make available evidence-based intervention services. This example should be replicable in other states with key stakeholders working collaboratively for the benefit of young children with ASD. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  18. Immediate treatment with bicalutamide 150mg as adjuvant therapy significantly reduces the risk of PSA progression in early prostate cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    See, W; Iversen, P; Wirth, M

    2003-01-01

    To evaluate the effect of bicalutamide ('Casodex') 150mg (in addition to standard care), on the risk of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression, in patients with early prostate cancer.......To evaluate the effect of bicalutamide ('Casodex') 150mg (in addition to standard care), on the risk of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression, in patients with early prostate cancer....

  19. Risk of Breast Cancer among Young Women and Importance of Early Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Memon, Zahid Ali; Kanwal, Noureen; Sami, Munam; Larik, Parsa Azam; Farooq, Mohammad Zain

    2015-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer in women throughout the world. However, in comparison with Western women, it presents relatively early in women of Asian ethnicity. Early menarche, late menopause, use of OCP's, family history of benign or malignant breast disease, exposure to radiation and BMI in the under-weight range are well known risk factors for the development of breast cancer in premenopausal women. Early detection with the use of breast self-examination (BSE) and breast cancer screening programs can lead to a reduction in the mortality rates due to breast cancer. The aim of our study was to assess the risk factors for breast cancer among young women and to emphasize the importance of early screening among them. We conducted a cross-sectional study among women aged 18 to 25 using a self- administered questionnaire. Data was collected over a period of 6 months from June to December, 2014. A total of 300 young women selected randomly from Dow Medical College and various departments of Karachi University successfully completed the survey. Respondents were 18-25 years of age (mean age=21.5). Out of the 300 young females, 90 (30%) had at least one risk factor, 90 (30%) had two, 40 (13%) had three, 8 (2.7%) had four, 2 (0.7%) had five while one female was found to have six positive risk factors for breast cancer. Some 66 women (22%) experienced symptoms of breast cancer such as non-cyclical pain and lumps. While 222 women (74%) had never performed breast self-examination, 22 (7.3%) had had a breast examination done by a health professional while 32 (10.7%) had participated in breast screening programs. A total of 223 (74.3%) women considered breast cancer screening important for young women. The percentage of young women with risk factors for breast cancer was found to be alarmingly high. Therefore, screening for breast cancer should start at an early age especially in high risk groups. Awareness about breast self-examination should be emphasized

  20. Participant selection for lung cancer screening by risk modelling (the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer [PanCan] study): a single-arm, prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tammemagi, Martin C; Schmidt, Heidi; Martel, Simon; McWilliams, Annette; Goffin, John R; Johnston, Michael R; Nicholas, Garth; Tremblay, Alain; Bhatia, Rick; Liu, Geoffrey; Soghrati, Kam; Yasufuku, Kazuhiro; Hwang, David M; Laberge, Francis; Gingras, Michel; Pasian, Sergio; Couture, Christian; Mayo, John R; Nasute Fauerbach, Paola V; Atkar-Khattra, Sukhinder; Peacock, Stuart J; Cressman, Sonya; Ionescu, Diana; English, John C; Finley, Richard J; Yee, John; Puksa, Serge; Stewart, Lori; Tsai, Scott; Haider, Ehsan; Boylan, Colm; Cutz, Jean-Claude; Manos, Daria; Xu, Zhaolin; Goss, Glenwood D; Seely, Jean M; Amjadi, Kayvan; Sekhon, Harmanjatinder S; Burrowes, Paul; MacEachern, Paul; Urbanski, Stefan; Sin, Don D; Tan, Wan C; Leighl, Natasha B; Shepherd, Frances A; Evans, William K; Tsao, Ming-Sound; Lam, Stephen

    2017-11-01

    Results from retrospective studies indicate that selecting individuals for low-dose CT lung cancer screening on the basis of a highly predictive risk model is superior to using criteria similar to those used in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST; age, pack-year, and smoking quit-time). We designed the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer (PanCan) study to assess the efficacy of a risk prediction model to select candidates for lung cancer screening, with the aim of determining whether this approach could better detect patients with early, potentially curable, lung cancer. We did this single-arm, prospective study in eight centres across Canada. We recruited participants aged 50-75 years, who had smoked at some point in their life (ever-smokers), and who did not have a self-reported history of lung cancer. Participants had at least a 2% 6-year risk of lung cancer as estimated by the PanCan model, a precursor to the validated PLCOm2012 model. Risk variables in the model were age, smoking duration, pack-years, family history of lung cancer, education level, body-mass index, chest x-ray in the past 3 years, and history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Individuals were screened with low-dose CT at baseline (T0), and at 1 (T1) and 4 (T4) years post-baseline. The primary outcome of the study was incidence of lung cancer. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00751660. 7059 queries came into the study coordinating centre and were screened for PanCan risk. 15 were duplicates, so 7044 participants were considered for enrolment. Between Sept 24, 2008, and Dec 17, 2010, we recruited and enrolled 2537 eligible ever-smokers. After a median follow-up of 5·5 years (IQR 3·2-6·1), 172 lung cancers were diagnosed in 164 individuals (cumulative incidence 0·065 [95% CI 0·055-0·075], incidence rate 138·1 per 10 000 person-years [117·8-160·9]). There were ten interval lung cancers (6% of lung cancers and 6% of individuals with cancer

  1. Using association rule mining to identify risk factors for early childhood caries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivančević, Vladimir; Tušek, Ivan; Tušek, Jasmina; Knežević, Marko; Elheshk, Salaheddin; Luković, Ivan

    2015-11-01

    Early childhood caries (ECC) is a potentially severe disease affecting children all over the world. The available findings are mostly based on a logistic regression model, but data mining, in particular association rule mining, could be used to extract more information from the same data set. ECC data was collected in a cross-sectional analytical study of the 10% sample of preschool children in the South Bačka area (Vojvodina, Serbia). Association rules were extracted from the data by association rule mining. Risk factors were extracted from the highly ranked association rules. Discovered dominant risk factors include male gender, frequent breastfeeding (with other risk factors), high birth order, language, and low body weight at birth. Low health awareness of parents was significantly associated to ECC only in male children. The discovered risk factors are mostly confirmed by the literature, which corroborates the value of the methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Early alveolar and systemic mediator release in patients at different risks for ARDS after multiple trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymondos, Konstantinos; Martin, Michael U; Schmudlach, Tanja; Baus, Stefan; Weilbach, Christian; Welte, Tobias; Krettek, Christian; Frink, Michael; Hildebrand, Frank

    2012-02-01

    Alveolar IL-8 has been reported to early identify patients at-risk to develop ARDS. However, it remains unknown how alveolar IL-8 is related to pulmonary and systemic inflammation in patients predisposed for ARDS. We studied 24 patients 2-6h after multiple trauma. Patients with IL-8 >200 pg/ml in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) were assigned to the group at high risk for ARDS (H, n = 8) and patients with BAL IL-8 mediators. The enhanced alveolar and systemic inflammation associated with alveolar IL-8 release should be considered to identify high-risk patients for pulmonary complications after multiple trauma to adjust surgical and other treatment strategies to the individual risk profile. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Cat exposure in early life decreases asthma risk from the 17q21 high-risk variant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stokholm, Jakob; Chawes, Bo L; Vissing, Nadja; Bønnelykke, Klaus; Bisgaard, Hans

    2018-05-01

    Early-life exposure to cats and dogs has shown diverging associations with childhood asthma risk, and gene-environment interaction is one possible explanation. We investigated interactions between cat and dog exposure and single nucleotide polymorphism rs7216389 variants in the chromosome 17q21 locus, the strongest known genetic risk factor for childhood asthma. Genotyping was performed in 377 children from the at-risk Copenhagen Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood 2000 . The primary end point was the development of asthma until age 12 years. The secondary end point was the number of episodes with pneumonia and bronchiolitis from 0 to 3 years of age. Exposures included cat and dog ownership from birth and cat and dog allergen levels in bedding at age 1 year. Replication was performed in the unselected COPSAC 2010 cohort with follow-up until 5 years of age. Cat and/or dog exposure from birth was associated with a lower prevalence of asthma among children with the rs7216389 high-risk TT genotype (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.04-0.71; P = .015), with no effect in those with the CC/CT genotype (adjusted P = .283), demonstrating interaction between cat and dog exposure and the rs7216389 genotype (adjusted P = .044). Cat allergen levels were inversely associated with asthma development in children with the TT genotype (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.71-0.97; P = .022), supporting the cat-rs7216389 genotype interaction (adjusted P = .008). Dog allergen exposure did not show such interaction. Furthermore, the TT genotype was associated with higher risk of pneumonia and bronchiolitis, and this increased risk was likewise decreased in children exposed to cat. Replication showed similar effects on asthma risk. The observed gene-environment interaction suggests a role of early-life exposure, especially to cat, for attenuating the risk of childhood asthma, pneumonia, and bronchiolitis in genetically susceptible subjects. Copyright © 2017

  4. [Association of muscle strength with early markers of cardiovascular risk in sedentary adults].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triana-Reina, Héctor Reynaldo; Ramírez-Vélez, Robinson

    2013-10-01

    To assess the association between muscle strength and early cardiovascular risk (CVR) markers in sedentary adults. A total of 176 sedentary subjects aged 18-30 years were enrolled. Body mass index and fat percentage were calculated, and waist circumference, grip strength by dynamometry, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, mean arterial pressure, and maximal oxygen uptake by VO2max were measured as CVR markers. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to assess associations between muscle strength and CVR markers. Inverse correlations were found between muscle strength and adiposity (r=-.317; P=.001), waist circumference (r=-.309; P=.001), systolic blood pressure (r=-.401; P=.001), and mean arterial pressure (r=-.256; P=.001). Subjects with lower levels of muscle strength had a 5.79-fold (95% CI 1.57 to 9.34; P=.008) risk of having higher adiposity levels (≥25%) and a 9.67-fold (95% CI=3.86 to 19.22; P<.001) risk of having lower physical capacity values for VO2max (≤31.5mL/kg/min(-1)). In sedentary adults, muscle strength is associated to early manifestations of CVR. It is suggested that muscle strength testing is added to routine measurement of VO2max and traditional risk factors for prevention and treatment of cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2012 SEEN. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  5. Stories about breast cancer in Australian women's magazines: information sources for risk, early detection and treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkes, L; Withnall, J; Harris, R; White, K; Beale, B; Hobson, J; Durham, M; Kristjanson, L

    2001-06-01

    Sixty articles in five Australian women's magazines were analyzed for journalistic qualities, metaphors, narrative features and accuracy of clinical facts related to risk, early detection and treatment of breast cancer. The stories were features, news features or soft news stories. The stories reflected the 'good news' editorial style of women's magazines. A dominant theme in the stories was that early detection of breast cancer is crucial and equals survival. While there were few inaccuracies in the stories, there was little detail of treatment modalities, an emphasis on lifestyle as a risk factor and a prevailing message that a genetic history of breast cancer means you will get it. A major implication of the findings is that nurses, who provide information to women, must be aware of the goals of journalists and the educational power of narrative logic of stories in women's magazines.

  6. EPA guidance on the early intervention in clinical high risk states of psychoses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, S J; Schultze-Lutter, F; Schimmelmann, B G

    2015-01-01

    -analysis of current empirical evidence on the efficacy of psychological and pharmacological interventions in CHR samples. Eligible studies had to investigate conversion rate and/or functioning as a treatment outcome in CHR patients defined by the ultra-high risk and/or basic symptom criteria. Besides analyses...... on treatment effects on conversion rate and functional outcome, age and type of intervention were examined as potential moderators. Based on data from 15 studies (n=1394), early intervention generally produced significantly reduced conversion rates at 6- to 48-month follow-up compared to control conditions...... on conversion rates, but not on functional outcome relative to the control conditions. Early intervention in youth samples was generally less effective than in predominantly adult samples. Seven evidence-based recommendations for early intervention in CHR samples could have been formulated, although more...

  7. Early Life Adversity as a Risk Factor for Fibromyalgia in Later Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucie A. Low

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of early life events is increasingly becoming apparent, as studies investigate how early childhood can shape long-term physiology and behaviour. Fibromyalgia (FM, which is characterised by increased pain sensitivity and a number of affective co-morbidities, has an unclear etiology. This paper discusses risk factors from early life that may increase the occurrence or severity of FM in later life: pain experience during neonatal life causes long-lasting changes in nociceptive circuitry and increases pain sensitivity in the older organism; premature birth and related stressor exposure cause lasting changes in stress responsivity; maternal deprivation affects anxiety-like behaviours that may be partially mediated by epigenetic modulation of the genome—all these adult phenotypes are strikingly similar to symptoms displayed by FM sufferers. In addition, childhood trauma and exposure to substances of abuse may cause lasting changes in developing neurotransmitter and endocrine circuits that are linked to anxiety and stress responses.

  8. Early pregnancy peripheral blood gene expression and risk of preterm delivery: a nested case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhie Seid Y

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Preterm delivery (PTD is a significant public health problem associated with greater risk of mortality and morbidity in infants and mothers. Pathophysiologic processes that may lead to PTD start early in pregnancy. We investigated early pregnancy peripheral blood global gene expression and PTD risk. Methods As part of a prospective study, ribonucleic acid was extracted from blood samples (collected at 16 weeks gestational age from 14 women who had PTD (cases and 16 women who delivered at term (controls. Gene expressions were measured using the GeneChip® Human Genome U133 Plus 2.0 Array. Student's T-test and fold change analysis were used to identify differentially expressed genes. We used hierarchical clustering and principle components analysis to characterize signature gene expression patterns among cases and controls. Pathway and promoter sequence analyses were used to investigate functions and functional relationships as well as regulatory regions of differentially expressed genes. Results A total of 209 genes, including potential candidate genes (e.g. PTGDS, prostaglandin D2 synthase 21 kDa, were differentially expressed. A set of these genes achieved accurate pre-diagnostic separation of cases and controls. These genes participate in functions related to immune system and inflammation, organ development, metabolism (lipid, carbohydrate and amino acid and cell signaling. Binding sites of putative transcription factors such as EGR1 (early growth response 1, TFAP2A (transcription factor AP2A, Sp1 (specificity protein 1 and Sp3 (specificity protein 3 were over represented in promoter regions of differentially expressed genes. Real-time PCR confirmed microarray expression measurements of selected genes. Conclusions PTD is associated with maternal early pregnancy peripheral blood gene expression changes. Maternal early pregnancy peripheral blood gene expression patterns may be useful for better understanding of PTD

  9. Family history of premature death and risk of early onset cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranthe, Mattis Flyvholm; Carstensen, Lisbeth; Oyen, Nina; Tfelt-Hansen, Jacob; Christiansen, Michael; McKenna, William J; Wohlfahrt, Jan; Melbye, Mads; Boyd, Heather A

    2012-08-28

    The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of a family history of premature death, cardiovascular death in particular, on the risk of early cardiovascular disease. Studies suggest that fatal cardiovascular events and less severe cardiovascular diseases may co-occur in families. Consequently, a family history of premature death may indicate a familial cardiac frailty that predisposes to early cardiovascular disease. We ascertained family history of premature death (age Denmark from 1950 to 2008 and followed this cohort for early cardiovascular disease (age history of premature cardiovascular death in first-degree relatives were 1.72 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.68 to 1.77), 2.21 (95% CI: 2.11 to 2.31), and 1.94 (95% CI: 1.70 to 2.20), respectively. With ≥2 cardiovascular deaths in a family, corresponding IRRs were 3.30 (95% CI: 2.77 to 3.94), 5.00 (95% CI: 3.87 to 6.45), and 6.18 (95% CI: 3.32 to 11.50). The IRR for any early cardiovascular disease given a family history of premature noncardiovascular death was significantly lower, 1.12 (95% CI: 1.10 to 1.14) (p(cardiac vs. noncardiac) history of premature cardiovascular death was consistently and significantly associated with a risk of early cardiovascular disease, suggesting an inherited cardiac vulnerability. These results should be kept in mind when assessing cardiovascular disease risk in persons with a family history of premature cardiovascular death. Copyright © 2012 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk of Hyperglycemia and Diabetes after Early-Life Famine Exposure: A Cross-Sectional Survey in Northeastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yangyu Zhang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies suggested that malnutrition during early life may play an essential role in later outcomes and disease risk in adulthood. We aimed to investigate the risks of hyperglycemia and diabetes 50 years after early-life famine exposure in a Northeastern Chinese population. We used the data from 5690 adults born between 1956 and 1965 in selected communities from a 2012 cross-sectional study. The early-childhood exposure cohort showed an increased risk of hyperglycemia compared with the unexposed cohort in the female population (odds ratio (OR 1.46; 95% confidence interval (CI 1.04, 2.06. The increased risk of diabetes in the early-childhood and fetal exposure cohorts was 37.0% (95% CI 1.05–1.79 and 50% (95% CI 1.15–1.96, respectively. For women, the risk of diabetes was more pronounced in the fetal-exposed cohort (OR 1.82; 95% CI 1.26–2.63 than in the early-childhood cohort (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.08–2.26. Early-life exposure to famine increased the risk of diabetes. Furthermore, early-childhood exposure to famine might increase the risk of hyperglycemia in women. A policy for preventing early life malnutrition should be drafted by the government to prevent hyperglycemia and diabetes in adulthood.

  11. Familial Risk of Early Suicide: Variations by Age and Sex of Children and Parents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garssen, Joop; Deerenberg, Ingeborg; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Kerkhof, Ad; Kunst, Anton E.

    2011-01-01

    To determine familial risk of early suicide, data on cause of death of all Dutch residents aged 20-55 years who died between 1995 and 2001 were linked to data of their parents. Men whose father died by suicide had a higher odds of suicide themselves, relative to men whose father died of other causes (Odds Ratio (OR): 2.5; 95% confidence interval:…

  12. Complementary feeding and the early origins of obesity risk: a study protocol

    OpenAIRE

    Muniandy, Naleena Devi; Allotey, Pascale A; Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2016-01-01

    Introduction The rise in the prevalence of childhood obesity worldwide calls for an intervention earlier in the life cycle. Studies show that nutrition during early infancy may contribute to later obesity. Hence, this study is designed to determine if the variation in complementary feeding practices poses a risk for the development of obesity later in life. A mixed methods approach will be used in conducting this study. Methods and analysis The target participants are infants born from Januar...

  13. Cat exposure in early life decreases asthma risk from the 17q21 high-risk variant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stokholm, Jakob; Chawes, Bo L.; Vissing, Nadja

    2018-01-01

    Background: Early-life exposure to cats and dogs has shown diverging associations with childhood asthma risk, and gene-environment interaction is one possible explanation. Objectives: We investigated interactions between cat and dog exposure and single nucleotide polymorphism rs7216389 variants...... was the number of episodes with pneumonia and bronchiolitis from 0 to 3 years of age. Exposures included cat and dog ownership from birth and cat and dog allergen levels in bedding at age 1 year. Replication was performed in the unselected COPSAC2010 cohort with follow-up until 5 years of age. Results: Cat and....../or dog exposure from birth was associated with a lower prevalence of asthma among children with the rs7216389 high-risk TT genotype (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.04-0.71; P =.015), with no effect in those with the CC/CT genotype (adjusted P =.283), demonstrating interaction between cat and dog...

  14. Preconception and early pregnancy air pollution exposures and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robledo, Candace A. [Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Division of Intramural Population Health Research, Epidemiology Branch, Rockville, MD 20892 (United States); Mendola, Pauline, E-mail: pauline.mendola@mail.nih.gov [Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Division of Intramural Population Health Research, Epidemiology Branch, Rockville, MD 20892 (United States); Yeung, Edwina; Männistö, Tuija [Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Division of Intramural Population Health Research, Epidemiology Branch, Rockville, MD 20892 (United States); Sundaram, Rajeshwari; Liu, Danping [Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Division of Intramural Population Health Research, Biostatistics and Bioinformatics Branch, Rockville, MD 20892 (United States); Ying, Qi [Texas A& M University, Zachary Department of Civil Engineering, College Station, TX 77845 (United States); Sherman, Seth [The EMMES Corporation, Rockville, MD 20852 (United States); Grantz, Katherine L. [Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Division of Intramural Population Health Research, Epidemiology Branch, Rockville, MD 20892 (United States)

    2015-02-15

    Background: Air pollution has been linked to gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) but no studies have evaluated impact of preconception and early pregnancy air pollution exposures on GDM risk. Methods: Electronic medical records provided data on 219,952 singleton deliveries to mothers with (n=11,334) and without GDM (n=208,618). Average maternal exposures to particulate matter (PM) ≤ 2.5 μm (PM{sub 2.5}) and PM{sub 2.5} constituents, PM ≤ 10 μm (PM{sub 10}), nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}), carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and ozone (O{sub 3}) were estimated for the 3-month preconception window, first trimester, and gestational weeks 1–24 based on modified Community Multiscale Air Quality models for delivery hospital referral regions. Binary regression models with robust standard errors estimated relative risks (RR) for GDM per interquartile range (IQR) increase in pollutant concentrations adjusted for study site, maternal age and race/ethnicity. Results: Preconception maternal exposure to NO{sub X} (RR=1.09, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.13) and SO{sub 2} (RR=1.05, 1.01, 1.09) were associated with increased risk of subsequent GDM and risk estimates remained elevated for first trimester exposure. Preconception O{sub 3} was associated with lower risk of subsequent GDM (RR=0.93, 0.90, 0.96) but risks increased later in pregnancy. Conclusion: Maternal exposures to NO{sub x} and SO{sub 2} preconception and during the first few weeks of pregnancy were associated with increased GDM risk. O{sub 3} appeared to increase GDM risk in association with mid-pregnancy exposure but not in earlier time windows. These common exposures merit further investigation. - Highlights: • Air pollution may be related to gestational diabetes (GDM). • No prior studies have examined preconception exposure. • Maternal exposure to NO{sub x} and SO{sub 2} before conception increased subsequent GDM risk. • NO{sub x} and SO{sub 2} exposure in the first seven weeks of pregnancy also increased

  15. Preconception and early pregnancy air pollution exposures and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robledo, Candace A.; Mendola, Pauline; Yeung, Edwina; Männistö, Tuija; Sundaram, Rajeshwari; Liu, Danping; Ying, Qi; Sherman, Seth; Grantz, Katherine L.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Air pollution has been linked to gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) but no studies have evaluated impact of preconception and early pregnancy air pollution exposures on GDM risk. Methods: Electronic medical records provided data on 219,952 singleton deliveries to mothers with (n=11,334) and without GDM (n=208,618). Average maternal exposures to particulate matter (PM) ≤ 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) and PM 2.5 constituents, PM ≤ 10 μm (PM 10 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ) were estimated for the 3-month preconception window, first trimester, and gestational weeks 1–24 based on modified Community Multiscale Air Quality models for delivery hospital referral regions. Binary regression models with robust standard errors estimated relative risks (RR) for GDM per interquartile range (IQR) increase in pollutant concentrations adjusted for study site, maternal age and race/ethnicity. Results: Preconception maternal exposure to NO X (RR=1.09, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.13) and SO 2 (RR=1.05, 1.01, 1.09) were associated with increased risk of subsequent GDM and risk estimates remained elevated for first trimester exposure. Preconception O 3 was associated with lower risk of subsequent GDM (RR=0.93, 0.90, 0.96) but risks increased later in pregnancy. Conclusion: Maternal exposures to NO x and SO 2 preconception and during the first few weeks of pregnancy were associated with increased GDM risk. O 3 appeared to increase GDM risk in association with mid-pregnancy exposure but not in earlier time windows. These common exposures merit further investigation. - Highlights: • Air pollution may be related to gestational diabetes (GDM). • No prior studies have examined preconception exposure. • Maternal exposure to NO x and SO 2 before conception increased subsequent GDM risk. • NO x and SO 2 exposure in the first seven weeks of pregnancy also increased GDM risk. • Early exposure to O 3 reduced GDM risk but risk increased

  16. Early adolescent substance use as a risk factor for developing conduct disorder and depression symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wymbs, Brian T; McCarty, Carolyn A; Mason, W Alex; King, Kevin M; Baer, John S; Vander Stoep, Ann; McCauley, Elizabeth

    2014-03-01

    Conduct disorder and depression symptoms are well-established risk factors for substance use during adolescence. However, few investigations have examined whether early substance use increases adolescents' risk of developing conduct disorder/depression symptoms. Using the Developmental Pathways Project sample of 521 middle school students (51.6% male), we tested whether substance use (indicated by alcohol and marijuana use, and use-related impairment) in 8th and 9th grade increased risk of conduct disorder and depression symptoms in 9th and 12th grade over and above prior symptoms. We examined whether associations between substance use and conduct disorder/depression symptoms were consistent across self- or parent-reported symptoms and whether associations were moderated by gender. Analyses indicated that, over and above prior symptoms, elevated substance use in 8th grade predicted elevated conduct disorder symptoms in 9th grade, and substance use in 9th grade predicted conduct disorder symptoms in 12th grade. In contrast, substance use failed to predict later depression symptoms independent of prior symptoms. These findings were consistent across self- and parent-reported conduct disorder/depression symptoms. With one exception (association between substance use in 8th grade and self-reported conduct disorder symptoms in 9th grade), relations between early substance use and later conduct disorder symptoms did not differ between boys and girls. Study findings underscore the unique contribution of substance use during early adolescence to the development of conduct disorder symptoms by late adolescence.

  17. Using a personality inventory to identify risk of distress and burnout among early stage medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bughi, Stephanie A; Lie, Desiree A; Zia, Stephanie K; Rosenthal, Jane

    2017-01-01

    Distress and burnout are common among medical students and negatively impact students' physical, mental, and emotional health. Personality inventories such as the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI), used in medical education, may have a role in identifying burnout risk early. The authors conducted a cross-sectional survey study among 185 1st year medical students with the MBTI, the general well-being schedule (GWB), and Maslach Burnout Inventory-Student Survey (MBI-SS). Descriptive statistics and one-way MANOVAs were used to identify the prevalence and differences in MBTI preferences and distress/burnout risk. Response rate was 185/185 (100%). Distress (GWB) was reported by 84/185 (45.4%). High scores on exhaustion were reported by 118/182 (64.8%), cynicism by 76/182 (41.8%), and decreased professional efficacy by 38/182 (20.9%) for the three dimensions of the MBI-SS. Only 21/182 (11.5%) of respondents had high scores on all three dimensions of burnout. Students with MBTI preferences for extraversion reported greater positive well-being (P burnout are prevalent early in medical training. The significant difference between extraversion and introversion in relation to distress and burnout deserves further study. Use of a personality inventory may help identify students at risk of burnout and allow appropriate early stress management.

  18. Polygenic Risk Score for Alzheimer's Disease: Implications for Memory Performance and Hippocampal Volumes in Early Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelrud, Luiza K; Santoro, Marcos L; Pine, Daniel S; Talarico, Fernanda; Gadelha, Ary; Manfro, Gisele G; Pan, Pedro M; Jackowski, Andrea; Picon, Felipe; Brietzke, Elisa; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo; Bressan, Rodrigo A; Miguel, Eurípedes C; Rohde, Luis A; Hakonarson, Hakon; Pausova, Zdenka; Belangero, Sintia; Paus, Tomas; Salum, Giovanni A

    2018-06-01

    Alzheimer's disease is a heritable neurodegenerative disorder in which early-life precursors may manifest in cognition and brain structure. The authors evaluate this possibility by examining, in youths, associations among polygenic risk score for Alzheimer's disease, cognitive abilities, and hippocampal volume. Participants were children 6-14 years of age in two Brazilian cities, constituting the discovery (N=364) and replication samples (N=352). As an additional replication, data from a Canadian sample (N=1,029), with distinct tasks, MRI protocol, and genetic risk, were included. Cognitive tests quantified memory and executive function. Reading and writing abilities were assessed by standardized tests. Hippocampal volumes were derived from the Multiple Automatically Generated Templates (MAGeT) multi-atlas segmentation brain algorithm. Genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease was quantified using summary statistics from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project. Analyses showed that for the Brazilian discovery sample, each one-unit increase in z-score for Alzheimer's polygenic risk score significantly predicted a 0.185 decrement in z-score for immediate recall and a 0.282 decrement for delayed recall. Findings were similar for the Brazilian replication sample (immediate and delayed recall, β=-0.259 and β=-0.232, both significant). Quantile regressions showed lower hippocampal volumes bilaterally for individuals with high polygenic risk scores. Associations fell short of significance for the Canadian sample. Genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease may affect early-life cognition and hippocampal volumes, as shown in two independent samples. These data support previous evidence that some forms of late-life dementia may represent developmental conditions with roots in childhood. This result may vary depending on a sample's genetic risk and may be specific to some types of memory tasks.

  19. Recurrent transient ischaemic attack and early risk of stroke: data from the PROMAPA study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purroy, Francisco; Jiménez Caballero, Pedro Enrique; Gorospe, Arantza; Torres, María José; Alvarez-Sabin, José; Santamarina, Estevo; Martínez-Sánchez, Patricia; Cánovas, David; Freijo, María José; Egido, Jose Antonio; Ramírez-Moreno, Jose M; Alonso-Arias, Arantza; Rodríguez-Campello, Ana; Casado, Ignacio; Delgado-Mederos, Raquel; Martí-Fàbregas, Joan; Fuentes, Blanca; Silva, Yolanda; Quesada, Helena; Cardona, Pere; Morales, Ana; de la Ossa, Natalia Pérez; García-Pastor, Antonio; Arenillas, Juan F; Segura, Tomas; Jiménez, Carmen; Masjuán, Jaime

    2013-06-01

    Many guidelines recommend urgent intervention for patients with two or more transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) within 7 days (multiple TIAs) to reduce the early risk of stroke. To determine whether all patients with multiple TIAs have the same high early risk of stroke. Between April 2008 and December 2009, we included 1255 consecutive patients with a TIA from 30 Spanish stroke centres (PROMAPA study). We prospectively recorded clinical characteristics. We also determined the short-term risk of stroke (at 7 and 90 days). Aetiology was categorised using the TOAST (Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment) classification. Clinical variables and extracranial vascular imaging were available and assessed in 1137/1255 (90.6%) patients. 7-Day and 90-day stroke risk were 2.6% and 3.8%, respectively. Large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA) was confirmed in 190 (16.7%) patients. Multiple TIAs were seen in 274 (24.1%) patients. Duration <1 h (OR=2.97, 95% CI 2.20 to 4.01, p<0.001), LAA (OR=1.92, 95% CI 1.35 to 2.72, p<0.001) and motor weakness (OR=1.37, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.81, p=0.031) were independent predictors of multiple TIAs. The subsequent risk of stroke in these patients at 7 and 90 days was significantly higher than the risk after a single TIA (5.9% vs 1.5%, p<0.001 and 6.8% vs 3.0%, respectively). In the logistic regression model, among patients with multiple TIAs, no variables remained as independent predictors of stroke recurrence. According to our results, multiple TIAs within 7 days are associated with a greater subsequent risk of stroke than after a single TIA. Nevertheless, we found no independent predictor of stroke recurrence among these patients.

  20. Popularity as a predictor of early alcohol use and moderator of other risk processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyll, Max; Madon, Stephanie; Spoth, Richard; Lannin, Daniel G

    2014-11-01

    This study tested the relationship between popularity and early adolescent alcohol use and examined whether popularity moderated the influence of several risk processes. Longitudinal data provided by 1,196 youth (590 girls) were analyzed to assess main and interactive effects of popularity, friends' alcohol use attitudes, own alcohol use attitude, risk taking, and aggressive-disruptive behavior on changes in alcohol use during seventh grade. When we controlled for demographic variables and baseline alcohol use, popularity and the other predictors of interest exhibited linear main effects on alcohol use, with popularity and the attitude variables also demonstrating curvilinear relationships. Further analysis indicated that popularity moderated the effect of aggressive-disruptive behavior, the latter being associated with greater alcohol use among more popular adolescents. Additional moderation results revealed that friends' favorable attitudes toward alcohol use also potentiated aggressive-disruptive behavior's relationship with alcohol use and that male youth were more likely than female youth to use alcohol, but only among low risk takers. Popular youth may attempt to maintain status through early alcohol use, and their social competencies may facilitate risk processes associated with aggressive-disruptive behavior. Findings suggest the utility of providing universal prevention at developmentally crucial times to address substance use overall, and particularly to decrease early use among popular youth, which may serve to slow the growth of substance use in the larger cohort. Although aggressive-disruptive youth who are popular seem to be at particular risk, they may resist traditional interventions, indicating the potential value of less obvious intervention strategies.

  1. Risk factors and birth outcomes of anaemia in early pregnancy in a nulliparous cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwinyai Masukume

    Full Text Available Anaemia in pregnancy is a major public health and economic problem worldwide, that contributes to both maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality.The aim of the study was to calculate the prevalence of anaemia in early pregnancy in a cohort of 'low risk' women participating in a large international multicentre prospective study (n = 5 609, to identify the modifiable risk factors for anaemia in pregnancy in this cohort, and to compare the birth outcomes between pregnancies with and without anaemia in early gestation.The study is an analysis of data that were collected prospectively during the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints study. Anaemia was defined according to the World Health Organization's definition of anaemia in pregnancy (haemoglobin < 11g/dL. Binary logistic regression with adjustment for potential confounders (country, maternal age, having a marital partner, ethnic origin, years of schooling, and having paid work was the main method of analysis.The hallmark findings were the low prevalence of anaemia (2.2%, that having no marital partner was an independent risk factor for having anaemia (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.01-1.78, and that there was no statistically significant effect of anaemia on adverse pregnancy outcomes (small for gestational age, pre-tem birth, mode of delivery, low birth weight, APGAR score < 7 at one and five minutes. Adverse pregnancy outcomes were however more common in those with anaemia than in those without.In this low risk healthy pregnant population we found a low anaemia rate. The absence of a marital partner was a non-modifiable factor, albeit one which may reflect a variety of confounding factors, that should be considered for addition to anaemia's conceptual framework of determinants. Although not statistically significant, clinically, a trend towards a higher risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes was observed in women that were anaemic in early pregnancy.

  2. Risk factors and birth outcomes of anaemia in early pregnancy in a nulliparous cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masukume, Gwinyai; Khashan, Ali S; Kenny, Louise C; Baker, Philip N; Nelson, Gill

    2015-01-01

    Anaemia in pregnancy is a major public health and economic problem worldwide, that contributes to both maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. The aim of the study was to calculate the prevalence of anaemia in early pregnancy in a cohort of 'low risk' women participating in a large international multicentre prospective study (n = 5 609), to identify the modifiable risk factors for anaemia in pregnancy in this cohort, and to compare the birth outcomes between pregnancies with and without anaemia in early gestation. The study is an analysis of data that were collected prospectively during the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints study. Anaemia was defined according to the World Health Organization's definition of anaemia in pregnancy (haemoglobin prevalence of anaemia (2.2%), that having no marital partner was an independent risk factor for having anaemia (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.01-1.78), and that there was no statistically significant effect of anaemia on adverse pregnancy outcomes (small for gestational age, pre-tem birth, mode of delivery, low birth weight, APGAR score pregnancy outcomes were however more common in those with anaemia than in those without. In this low risk healthy pregnant population we found a low anaemia rate. The absence of a marital partner was a non-modifiable factor, albeit one which may reflect a variety of confounding factors, that should be considered for addition to anaemia's conceptual framework of determinants. Although not statistically significant, clinically, a trend towards a higher risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes was observed in women that were anaemic in early pregnancy.

  3. Early childhood risk and resilience factors for behavioural and emotional problems in middle childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabaj, Jason L; McDonald, Sheila W; Tough, Suzanne C

    2014-07-01

    Mental disorders in childhood have a considerable health and societal impact but the associated negative consequences may be ameliorated through early identification of risk and protective factors that can guide health promoting and preventive interventions. The objective of this study was to inform health policy and practice through identification of demographic, familial and environmental factors associated with emotional or behavioural problems in middle childhood, and the predictors of resilience in the presence of identified risk factors. A cohort of 706 mothers followed from early pregnancy was surveyed at six to eight years post-partum by a mail-out questionnaire, which included questions on demographics, children's health, development, activities, media and technology, family, friends, community, school life, and mother's health. Although most children do well in middle childhood, of 450 respondents (64% response rate), 29.5% and 25.6% of children were found to have internalising and externalising behaviour problem scores in the lowest quintile on the NSCLY Child Behaviour Scales. Independent predictors for problem behaviours identified through multivariable logistic regression modelling included being male, demographic risk, maternal mental health risk, poor parenting interactions, and low parenting morale. Among children at high risk for behaviour problems, protective factors included high maternal and child self-esteem, good maternal emotional health, adequate social support, good academic performance, and adequate quality parenting time. These findings demonstrate that several individual and social resilience factors can counter the influence of early adversities on the likelihood of developing problem behaviours in middle childhood, thus informing enhanced public health interventions for this understudied life course phase.

  4. People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

    2009-04-01

    In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to

  5. Mother-Child Interaction and Resilience in Children with Early Developmental Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenning, Rachel M.; Baker, Jason K.

    2014-01-01

    Although prenatal and genetic factors make strong contributions to the emergence of intellectual disability (ID), children's early environment may have the potential to alter developmental trajectories and to foster resilience in children with early risk. The present study examined mother-child interaction and the promotion of competence in 50 children with early developmental delays. Three related but distinct aspects of mother-child interaction were considered: maternal technical scaffolding, maternal positive-sensitivity, and mother-child dyadic pleasure. Children were classified as exhibiting undifferentiated delays at age three based upon performance on developmental assessments and the absence of known genetic syndromes. Mother-child interaction was assessed at age four through observational ratings of structured laboratory tasks and through naturalistic home observations. ID was identified at age five using the dual criteria of clinically significant delays in cognitive functioning and adaptive behavior. Maternal technical scaffolding and dyadic pleasure each uniquely predicted reduced likelihood of later ID, beyond the contributions of children's early developmental level and behavioral functioning. Follow-up analyses suggested that mother-child interaction was primarily important to resilience in the area of adaptive behavior, with scaffolding and dyadic pleasure differentially associated with particular sub-domains. Implications for theories of intellectual disability and for family-based early intervention and prevention efforts are discussed. PMID:22662771

  6. Risk Factors of Early Otitis Media in the Danish National Birth Cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asbjørn Kørvel-Hanquist

    Full Text Available To assess risk factors of otitis media (OM in six-months-old children.The sample consisted of 69,105 mothers and their children from the Danish National Birth Cohort. The women were interviewed twice during pregnancy and again 6 months after birth. The outcome "one or more" maternal reported episodes of OM at age six months. In total 37 factors were assessed, covering prenatal, maternal, perinatal and postnatal factors.At age six months 5.3% (95% CI 5.1-5.5 of the children had experienced one or more episodes of OM. From the regression analysis, 11 variables were associated with a risk of OM. When a Bonferroni correction was introduced, gender, prematurity, parity, maternal age, maternal self-estimated health, taking penicillin during pregnancy, and terminating breastfeeding before age six months, was associated with a risk of early OM. The adjusted ORs of OM for boys versus girls was 1.30 (95% CI 1.18-1.44. The OR having one sibling versus no siblings was 3.0 (95% CI 2.64-3.41. If the woman had been taking penicillin during pregnancy, the OR was 1.35 (95% CI 1.15-1.58. Children born before 38th gestational week had an increased OR for early OM of 1.49 (95% CI 1.21-1.82. Children of young women had an increased OR of early OM compared to children of older women. Additionally, children of women who rated their own health low compared to those rating their health as high, had an increased OR of 1.38 (95% CI 1.10-1.74. Finally, children being breastfeed less than 6 months, had an increased OR of 1.42 (95% CI 1.28-1.58 compared to children being breastfeed beyond 6 months.These findings indicate that prenatal factors are of less importance regarding early OM before the age of six months. Postnatal risk factors seem to pose the main risk of early OM.

  7. Risk factors for suicide among children and youths with bipolar spectrum and early bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajewska-Rager, Aleksandra; Sibilski, Piotr; Lepczyńska, Natalia

    2015-01-01

    In recent years much attention has been given to determine risk factors for suicide among adults with bipolar disorder. Such studies concerning children and youths, which would also take into account the specificity of the developmental age, are still too few. The ability to identify risk factors for children and youths with mood disorders, as well as the possibility to monitor them, is an essential element in preventing suicidal behaviours. Previous studies have clearly indicated that in the group of patients with an early onset of the bipolar disorder the occurrence of suicidal thoughts and intentions were significantly increased. Identifying the risk of suicide is hindered further by the complexity of the phenomenon, which is a compound interaction of various factors: biological, environmental, sociological, psychological and clinical. This is especially true with young adults suffering from mental illness and presenting a number of other psychopathological symptoms. The following paper introduces and reviews the results of current studies, which analysed the risk factors for suicide among children and youths with bipolar spectrum or already diagnosed with bipolar disorder. For this purpose we conducted the overview of recent years literature available in PubMed/MEDLINE database, including the following search criteria: early onset bipolar disorder, bipolar disorder in children and young people, the spectrum of bipolar disorder, and suicidal ideation, suicidal intent, suicide.

  8. Psychosocial predictors of sexual initiation and high-risk sexual behaviors in early adolescence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schwab-Stone Mary

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This longitudinal study examined psychosocial factors associated with risky sexual behavior in early adolescence. Methods Data were collected through a self-report survey, the Social and Health Assessment (SAHA, which was administered in three waves between 2001 and 2003 to a cohort of incoming sixth grade students in the public school system (149 classes at 17 middle and high schools, N = 1,175 of a small northeastern city in the United States. We first examined whether internalizing and externalizing problems in sixth grade, and the rate of change in these factors during middle school, were predictive of sexual initiation two years later, when most of the sample was in eighth grade. We then assessed whether internalizing and externalizing problems in sixth grade, and the rate of change in these factors during middle school, were predictive of engaging in high risk sexual behavior over the subsequent two years. Results Externalizing factors are more predictive of sexual risk in early adolescence than are internalizing factors. Specifically, substance use and violent delinquency over the course of middle school were associated with higher, while anxiety with lower, sexual initiation rates during middle school. Additionally, increased substance use over the course of middle school was associated with greater likelihood of engaging in high risk sexual behavior. Conclusion By identifying particular psychosocial risk factors among young adolescents, the findings of this study have implications for designing multi-dimensional programs aimed at preventing health-compromising sexual behavior among young teens.

  9. Early-onset Conduct Problems: Predictions from daring temperament and risk taking behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Sunhye; Lee, Steve S

    2017-12-01

    Given its considerable public health significance, identifying predictors of early expressions of conduct problems is a priority. We examined the predictive validity of daring, a key dimension of temperament, and the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART), a laboratory-based measure of risk taking behavior, with respect to two-year change in parent, teacher-, and youth self-reported oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), conduct disorder (CD), and antisocial behavior. At baseline, 150 ethnically diverse 6- to 10-year old (M=7.8, SD=1.1; 69.3% male) youth with ( n =82) and without ( n =68) DSM-IV ADHD completed the BART whereas parents rated youth temperament (i.e., daring); parents and teachers also independently rated youth ODD and CD symptoms. Approximately 2 years later, multi-informant ratings of youth ODD, CD, and antisocial behavior were gathered from rating scales and interviews. Whereas risk taking on the BART was unrelated to conduct problems, individual differences in daring prospectively predicted multi-informant rated conduct problems, independent of baseline risk taking, conduct problems, and ADHD diagnostic status. Early differences in the propensity to show positive socio-emotional responses to risky or novel experiences uniquely predicted escalating conduct problems in childhood, even with control of other potent clinical correlates. We consider the role of temperament in the origins and development of significant conduct problems from childhood to adolescence, including possible explanatory mechanisms underlying these predictions.

  10. Risk factors for pancreatic cancer and early diagnosis of pancreatic cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamao, Kenji; Mizuno, Nobumasa; Sawaki, Akira; Shimizu, Yasuhiro; Chang, K.J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes the strategy for improving the poor prognosis of the pancreatic (P) cancer by its early imaging diagnosis followed by resection, based on recent findings on its high risk group. Epidemiological studies have revealed that patients with diabetes, chronic pancreatitis, intraductal papillary-mucious tumor, P cyst, familial history of P cancer, and hereditary P cancer syndrome are involved in the high risk group of P cancer. Imaging diagnosis with CT and/or endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) followed by histological confirmation for resection can be a useful approach to improve the prognosis in those high risk, asymptomatic individuals with abnormal levels of P enzyme and tumor marker, and with US findings of P ductal dilation and cyst. The guideline 2006 for P cancer by Japan Pancreas Society shows the algorithm leading to the final diagnosis for the positive high risk group: firstly, CT and/or MRCP (MR cholangiopancreatography (CP)); or, in case of uncertainty, EUS and/or ERCP (E retrograde CP) and/or PET; and finally, cytological, histological diagnosis. The newer approach proposed recently for the group is: multi detector row (MD)-CT and EUS; then cytodiagnosis guided by ERCP and/or with fine needle aspiration by EUS, also a promising early diagnosis. As well, molecular biological approaches are supposedly useful for the future diagnosis. (R.T.)

  11. Early Sport Specialization: Effectiveness and Risk of Injury in Professional Baseball Players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelm, Andrew; Choi, Changryol; Deitch, John

    2017-09-01

    The rate of early sport specialization in professional baseball players is unknown. To report the incidence and age of sport specialization in current professional baseball players and the impact of early specialization on the frequency of serious injuries sustained during the players' careers. We also queried participants about when serious injuries occurred, the players' current position on the field, and their opinions regarding the need for young athletes to specialize early to play at the professional level. Descriptive epidemiological study. A total of 102 current professional baseball players anonymously completed a 7-question written survey. Early sport specialization was defined as "single-sport participation prior to high school." Injury was defined as "a serious injury or surgery that required the player to refrain from sports (baseball) for an entire year." Chi-square tests were used to investigate the risk of injury in those who specialized early in baseball versus those who did not. Independent-sample t tests were used to compare injury rates based on current player position. Fifty (48%) baseball players specialized early. The mean age at initiation of sport specialization was 8.91 years (SD, 3.7 years). Those who specialized early reported more serious injuries (mean, 0.54; SD, 0.838) during their professional baseball career than those who did not (mean, 0.23; SD, 0.425) ( P = .044). Finally, 63.4% of the queried players believed that early sport specialization was not required to play professional baseball. Our study demonstrated a statistically significant higher rate of serious injury during a baseball player's professional career in those players who specialized early. Most current professional baseball players surveyed believed that sport specialization was not required prior to high school to master the skills needed to play at the professional level. Our findings demonstrate an increased incidence of serious injuries in professional baseball

  12. Adaptive Behavior in Adopted Children: Predictors from Early Risk, Collaboration in Relationships within the Adoptive Kinship Network, and Openness Arrangements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grotevant, Harold D.; Ross, Nicole M.; Marchel, Mary Ann; McRoy, Ruth G.

    1999-01-01

    Examined links between early risk and problematic developmental outcomes in adopted children during middle childhood. Found no direct relation between prenatal, perinatal, or preplacement risk factors and problematic socioemotional adjustment. With 12 high-risk children, proactive cooperation among the child's adoptive and birth family members on…

  13. Complete cumulative index (1963-1983)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    This complete cumulative index covers all regular and special issues and supplements published by Atomic Energy Review (AER) during its lifetime (1963-1983). The complete cumulative index consists of six Indexes: the Index of Abstracts, the Subject Index, the Title Index, the Author Index, the Country Index and the Table of Elements Index. The complete cumulative index supersedes the Cumulative Indexes for Volumes 1-7: 1963-1969 (1970), and for Volumes 1-10: 1963-1972 (1972); this Index also finalizes Atomic Energy Review, the publication of which has recently been terminated by the IAEA

  14. Kindergarten risk factors, cognitive factors, and teacher judgments as predictors of early reading in Dutch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gijsel, Martine A R; Bosman, Anna M T; Verhoeven, Ludo

    2006-01-01

    This study focused on the predictive value of risk factors, cognitive factors, and teachers' judgments in a sample of 462 kindergartners for their early reading skills and reading failure at the beginning of Grade 1. With respect to risk factors, enrollment in speech-language therapy, history of dyslexia or speech-language problems in the family, and the role of gender were considered. None of these risk factors were significantly related to reading performance. Cognitive factors in this study included letter knowledge, rapid naming ability, and nonword repetition skills. Of these skills, letter knowledge seemed to have the highest correlation with reading. Kindergarten teachers' judgments, including a task assignment scale and teachers' predictions, demonstrated a significant relationship with reading. Finally, to judge whether these predictors could identify reading disabilities, the discriminatory power of all predictors was assessed and appeared to be insufficient. Implications for screening purposes are discussed.

  15. Development of a Simple Clinical Risk Score for Early Prediction of Severe Dengue in Adult Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ing-Kit Lee

    Full Text Available We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to aid in the early identification of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients at high risk of severe dengue (SD (i.e. severe plasma leakage with shock or respiratory distress, or severe bleeding or organ impairment. We retrospectively analyzed data of 1184 non-SD patients at hospital presentation and 69 SD patients before SD onset. We fit a logistic regression model using 85% of the population and converted the model coefficients to a numeric risk score. Subsequently, we validated the score using the remaining 15% of patients. Using the derivation cohort, two scoring algorithms for predicting SD were developed: models 1 (dengue illness ≤4 days and 2 (dengue illness >4 days. In model 1, we identified four variables: age ≥65 years, minor gastrointestinal bleeding, leukocytosis, and platelet count ≥100×109 cells/L. Model 1 (ranging from -2 to +6 points showed good discrimination between SD and non-SD, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of 0.848 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.771-0.924. The optimal cutoff value for model 1 was 1 point, with a sensitivity and specificity for predicting SD of 70.3% and 90.6%, respectively. In model 2 (ranging from 0 to +3 points, significant predictors were age ≥65 years and leukocytosis. Model 2 showed an AUC of 0.859 (95% CI, 0.756-0.963, with an optimal cutoff value of 1 point (sensitivity, 80.3%; specificity, 85.8%. The median interval from hospital presentation to SD was 1 day. This finding underscores the importance of close monitoring, timely resuscitation of shock including intravenous fluid adjustment and early correction of dengue-related complications to prevent the progressive dengue severity. In the validation data, AUCs of 0.904 (95% CI, 0.825-0.983 and 0.917 (95% CI, 0.833-1.0 in models 1 and 2, respectively, were achieved. The observed SD rates (in both cohorts were 50% for those with a score of ≥2 points

  16. Risk of chromosomal abnormalities in early spontaneous abortion after assisted reproductive technology: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-Zhen Qin

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies on the risk of chromosomal abnormalities in early spontaneous abortion after assisted reproductive technology (ART are relatively controversial and insufficient. Thus, to obtain a more precise evaluation of the risk of embryonic chromosomal abnormalities in first-trimester miscarriage after ART, we performed a meta-analysis of all available case-control studies relating to the cytogenetic analysis of chromosomal abnormalities in first-trimester miscarriage after ART. METHODS: Literature search in the electronic databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL based on the established strategy. Meta-regression, subgroup analysis, and Galbraith plots were conducted to explore the sources of heterogeneity. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies with 1,896 cases and 1,186 controls relevant to the risk of chromosomal abnormalities in first- trimester miscarriage after ART, and 8 studies with 601 cases and 602 controls evaluating frequency of chromosome anomaly for maternal age≥35 versus <35 were eligible for the meta-analysis. No statistical difference was found in risk of chromosomally abnormal miscarriage compared to natural conception and the different types of ART utilized, whereas the risk of fetal aneuploidy significantly increased with maternal age≥35 (OR 2.88, 95% CI: 1.74-4.77. CONCLUSIONS: ART treatment does not present an increased risk for chromosomal abnormalities occurring in a first trimester miscarriage, but incidence of fetal aneuploidy could increase significantly with advancing maternal age.

  17. Omega-3 fatty acids and the genetic risk of early onset acute coronary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung Yinko, S S L; Thanassoulis, G; Stark, K D; Avgil Tsadok, M; Engert, J C; Pilote, L

    2014-11-01

    Recent gene-environment interaction studies suggest that diet may influence an individual's genetic predisposition to cardiovascular risk. We evaluated whether omega-3 fatty acid intake may influence the risk for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) conferred by genetic polymorphisms among patients with early onset ACS. Our population consisted of 705 patients of white European descent enrolled in GENESIS-PRAXY, a multicenter cohort study of patients aged 18-55 years and hospitalized with ACS. We used a case-only design to investigate interactions between the omega-3 index (a validated biomarker of omega-3 fatty acid intake) and 30 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated with ACS. We used logistic regression to assess the interaction between each SNP and the omega-3 index. Interaction was also assessed between the omega-3 index and a genetic risk score generated from the 30 SNPs. All models were adjusted for age and sex. An interaction for increased ACS risk was found between carriers of the chromosome 9p21 variant rs4977574 and low omega-3 index (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.07-2.32, p = 0.02), but this was not significant after correction for multiple testing. Similar results were obtained in the adjusted model (OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.05-2.29, p = 0.03). We did not observe any interaction between the genetic risk score or any of the other SNPs and the omega-3 index. Our results suggest that omega-3 fatty acid intake may modify the genetic risk conferred by chromosome 9p21 variation in the development of early onset ACS and requires independent replication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Healthy Lifestyle During Early Pregnancy and Risk of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badon, Sylvia E; Enquobahrie, Daniel A; Wartko, Paige D; Miller, Raymond S; Qiu, Chunfang; Gelaye, Bizu; Sorensen, Tanya K; Williams, Michelle A

    2017-08-01

    Previous studies have found associations between individual healthy behaviors and reduced risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM); however, the association of composite healthy lifestyle during pregnancy with GDM has not been examined. Participants in the Omega Study (n = 3,005), a pregnancy cohort study conducted in Washington State (1996-2008), reported information on diet, physical activity, smoking, and stress during early pregnancy. Lifestyle components were dichotomized into healthy/unhealthy and then combined into a total lifestyle score (range, 0-4). Regression models were used to determine relative risk of GDM (n = 140 cases) in relation to healthy lifestyle. Twenty percent of participants had a healthy diet, 66% were physically active, 95% were nonsmokers, and 55% had low stress. Each 1-point increase in lifestyle score was associated with a 21% lower risk of GDM (95% confidence interval: 0.65, 0.96) after adjustment for age, race, and nulliparity. Adjustment for prepregnancy body mass index, prepregnancy physical activity, and prepregnancy smoking attenuated the associations slightly. Associations were similar in normal-weight and overweight/obese women. In this study, a composite measure of healthy lifestyle during early pregnancy was associated with substantially lower GDM risk. Public health messaging and interventions promoting multiple aspects of a healthy lifestyle during early pregnancy should be considered for GDM prevention. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. Anticipating Early Fatality: Friends', Schoolmates' and Individual Perceptions of Fatality on Adolescent Risk Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soller, Brian; Williams, Kristi

    2015-01-01

    Past research indicates that anticipating adverse outcomes, such as early death (fatalism), is associated positively with adolescents' likelihood of engaging in risky behaviors. Health researchers and criminologists have argued that fatalism influences present risk taking in part by informing individuals' motivation for delaying gratification for the promise of future benefits. While past findings highlight the association between the anticipation of early death and a number of developmental outcomes, no known research has assessed the impact of location in a context characterized by high perceptions of fatality. Using data from Add Health and a sample of 9,584 adolescents (51 % female and 71 % white) nested in 113 schools, our study builds upon prior research by examining the association between friends', school mates', and individual perceptions of early fatality and adolescent risk behaviors. We test whether friends' anticipation of being killed prior to age 21 or location in a school where a high proportion of the student body subscribes to attitudes of high fatality, is associated with risky behaviors. Results indicate that friends' fatalism is positively associated with engaging in violent delinquency, non-violent delinquency, and drug use after controlling for individual covariates and prior individual risk-taking. Although friends' delinquency accounts for much of the effect of friends' fatalism on violence, none of the potential intervening variables fully explain the effect of friends' fatalism on youth involvement in nonviolent delinquency and drug use. Our results underscore the importance of friendship contextual effects in shaping adolescent risk-taking behavior and the very serious consequences perceptions of fatality have for adolescents' involvement in delinquency and drug use. PMID:23828725

  20. Early childhood family intervention and long-term obesity prevention among high-risk minority youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotman, Laurie Miller; Dawson-McClure, Spring; Huang, Keng-Yen; Theise, Rachelle; Kamboukos, Dimitra; Wang, Jing; Petkova, Eva; Ogedegbe, Gbenga

    2012-03-01

    To test the hypothesis that family intervention to promote effective parenting in early childhood affects obesity in preadolescence. Participants were 186 minority youth at risk for behavior problems who enrolled in long-term follow-up studies after random assignment to family intervention or control condition at age 4. Follow-up Study 1 included 40 girls at familial risk for behavior problems; Follow-up Study 2 included 146 boys and girls at risk for behavior problems based on teacher ratings. Family intervention aimed to promote effective parenting and prevent behavior problems during early childhood; it did not focus on physical health. BMI and health behaviors were measured an average of 5 years after intervention in Study 1 and 3 years after intervention in Study 2. Youth randomized to intervention had significantly lower BMI at follow-up relative to controls (Study 1 P = .05; Study 2 P = .006). Clinical impact is evidenced by lower rates of obesity (BMI ≥95th percentile) among intervention girls and boys relative to controls (Study 2: 24% vs 54%, P = .002). There were significant intervention-control group differences on physical and sedentary activity, blood pressure, and diet. Two long-term follow-up studies of randomized trials show that relative to controls, youth at risk for behavior problems who received family intervention at age 4 had lower BMI and improved health behaviors as they approached adolescence. Efforts to promote effective parenting and prevent behavior problems early in life may contribute to the reduction of obesity and health disparities.

  1. Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly

  2. Early Primary Care Provider Follow-up and Readmission After High-Risk Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke, Benjamin S.; Stone, David H.; Cronenwett, Jack L.; Nolan, Brian; DeMartino, Randall R.; MacKenzie, Todd A.; Goodman, David C.; Goodney, Philip P.

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Follow-up with a primary care provider (PCP) in addition to the surgical team is routinely recommended to patients discharged after major surgery despite no clear evidence that it improves outcomes. OBJECTIVE To test whether PCP follow-up is associated with lower 30-day readmission rates after open thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA) repair and ventral hernia repair (VHR), surgical procedures known to have a high and low risk of readmission, respectively. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In a cohort of Medicare beneficiaries discharged to home after open TAA repair (n = 12 679) and VHR (n = 52 807) between 2003 to 2010, we compared 30-day readmission rates between patients seen and not seen by a PCP within 30 days of discharge and across tertiles of regional primary care use. We stratified our analysis by the presence of complications during the surgical (index) admission. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Thirty-day readmission rate. RESULTS Overall, 2619 patients (20.6%) undergoing open TAA repair and 4927 patients (9.3%) undergoing VHR were readmitted within 30 days after surgery. Complications occurred in 4649 patients (36.6%) undergoing open TAA repair and 4528 patients (8.6%) undergoing VHR during their surgical admission. Early follow-up with a PCP significantly reduced the risk of readmission among open TAA patients who experienced perioperative complications, from 35.0% (without follow-up) to 20.4% (with follow-up) (P < .001). However, PCP follow-up made no significant difference in patients whose hospital course was uncomplicated (19.4% with follow-up vs 21.9% without follow-up; P = .31). In comparison, early follow-up with a PCP after VHR did not reduce the risk of readmission, regardless of complications. In adjusted regional analyses, undergoing open TAA repair in regions with high compared with low primary care use was associated with an 18% lower likelihood of 30-day readmission (odds ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.71–0.96; P = .02), whereas no significant

  3. Maternal depression and suicide at immediate prenatal and early postpartum periods and psychosocial risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Peixia; Ren, Hui; Li, Hong; Dai, Qin

    2018-03-01

    Maternal depression has been intensively explored; however, less attention has been paid to maternal suicide. No studies to date have observed maternal depression and suicide at immediate prenatal and early postpartum stages. In total, 213 Chinese women were recruited in hospitals after they were admitted for childbirth. All completed a short-term longitudinal survey at perinatal stages. Women reported lower depression scores (6.65) and higher suicidal ideation incidence (11.74%) after childbirth. Prenatal depression raised the possibility of prenatal suicidal ideation, while prenatal depression and suicidal ideation increased postpartum depression and suicidal ideation. At immediate prenatal stage, marital satisfaction protected women from depression, while miscarriage experiences and self-esteem increased the risk. At early postpartum stage, in contrast, being first-time mother, marital satisfaction, and harmony with mother-in-law prevented them from depression. Our study is among the first to confirm that women have decreased depression but increased suicidal ideation at early postpartum, and a causal relationship between them, which are worthy of public attention. Potential protective (marital satisfaction, being first-time mother, and harmony with mother-in-law) or risk factors (miscarriage experiences and self-esteem) of maternal depression and suicidal ideation are identified at perinatal stages. This offers reliable guidance for clinical practice of health care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Can very early music interventions promote at-risk infants' development?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virtala, Paula; Partanen, Eino

    2018-04-30

    Music and musical activities are often a natural part of parenting. As accumulating evidence shows, music can promote auditory and language development in infancy and early childhood. It may even help to support auditory and language skills in infants whose development is compromised by heritable conditions, like the reading deficit dyslexia, or by environmental factors, such as premature birth. For example, infants born to dyslexic parents can have atypical brain responses to speech sounds and subsequent challenges in language development. Children born very preterm, in turn, have an increased likelihood of sensory, cognitive, and motor deficits. To ameliorate these deficits, we have developed early interventions focusing on music. Preliminary results of our ongoing longitudinal studies suggest that music making and parental singing promote infants' early language development and auditory neural processing. Together with previous findings in the field, the present studies highlight the role of active, social music making in supporting auditory and language development in at-risk children and infants. Once completed, the studies will illuminate both risk and protective factors in development and offer a comprehensive model of understanding the promises of music activities in promoting positive developmental outcomes during the first years of life. © 2018 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of The New York Academy of Sciences.

  5. Screening Protocol for Early Identification of Brazilian Children at Risk for Dyslexia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giseli D. Germano

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Early identification of students at risk of dyslexia has been an educational challenge in the past years. This research had two main goals. First, we aimed to develop a screening protocol for early identification of Brazilian children at risk for dyslexia; second, we aimed to identify the predictive variables of this protocol using Principal Component Analysis. The major step involved in developing this protocol was the selection of variables, which were chosen based on the literature review and linguistic criteria. The screening protocol was composed of seven cognitive-linguistic skills: Letter naming; Phonological Awareness (which comprises the following subtests: Rhyme production, Rhyme identification, Syllabic segmentation, Production of words from a given phoneme, Phonemic Synthesis, and Phonemic analysis; Phonological Working memory, Rapid naming Speed; Silent reading; Reading of words and non-words; and Auditory Comprehension of sentences from pictures. A total of 149 children, aged from 6 years to 6 and 11, of both genders who were enrolled in the 1st grade of elementary public schools were submitted to the screening protocol. Principal Component Analysis revealed four factors, accounting for 64.45% of the variance of the Protocol variables: first factor (“pre-reading”, second factor (“decoding”, third factor (“Reading”, and fourth factor “Auditory processing.” The factors found corroborate those reported in the National and International literature and have been described as early signs of dyslexia and reading problems.

  6. Increased maternal plasma leptin in early pregnancy and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Chunfang; Williams, Michelle A; Vadachkoria, Surab; Frederick, Ihunnaya O; Luthy, David A

    2004-03-01

    Emerging evidence suggests that leptin, an adipocyte-derived hormone, may have independent direct effects on both insulin secretion and action, in addition to its well documented effects on appetite and energy expenditure. Some, but not all, previously published studies suggest that maternal leptin concentrations may be increased in pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). We examined the association between plasma leptin concentration and GDM risk. Women were recruited before 16 weeks of gestation and were followed up until delivery. Maternal plasma leptin concentrations (collected at 13 weeks of gestation) were measured by using immunoassay. We used generalized linear models to estimate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals. GDM developed in 5.7% of the cohort (47 of 823). Elevated leptin concentrations were positively associated with GDM risk (P for trend risk of GDM (95% confidence interval 1.2, 18.0) as compared with women who had concentrations of 14.3 ng/mL or lower. We noted a strong linear component of trend in risk of GDM with increasing maternal plasma leptin concentration. Each 10-ng/mL increase in the leptin concentration was associated with a 20% increase in GDM risk (relative risk 1.2; 95% confidence interval 1.0, 1.3). Hyperleptinemia, independent of maternal adiposity, in early pregnancy appears to be predictive of an increased risk of GDM later in pregnancy. Additional larger prospective cohort studies are needed to confirm and more precisely assess the etiologic importance of hyperleptinemia in pregnancy. II-2

  7. National cohort study of absolute risk and age-specific incidence of multiple adverse outcomes between adolescence and early middle age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mok, Pearl L H; Antonsen, Sussie; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Appleby, Louis; Shaw, Jenny; Webb, Roger T

    2015-09-19

    Psychiatric illness, substance misuse, suicidality, criminality and premature death represent major public health challenges that afflict a sizeable proportion of young people. However, studies of multiple adverse outcomes in the same cohort at risk are rare. In a national Danish cohort we estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates and absolute risks of these outcomes between adolescence and early middle age. Using interlinked registers, persons born in Denmark 1966-1996 were followed from their 15(th) until 40(th) birthday or December 2011 (N = 2,070,904). We estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates of nine adverse outcomes, in three main categories: Premature mortality (all-causes, suicide, accident); Psychiatric morbidity (any mental illness diagnosis, suicide attempt, alcohol or drug misuse disorder); Criminality (violent offending, receiving custodial sentence, driving under influence of alcohol or drugs). Cumulative incidences were also calculated using competing risk survival analyses. For cohort members alive on their 15(th) birthday, the absolute risks of dying by age 40 were 1.99 % for males [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.95-2.03 %] and 0.85 % for females (95 % CI 0.83-0.88 %). The risks of substance misuse and criminality were also much higher for males, especially younger males, than for females. Specifically, the risk of a first conviction for a violent offence was highest amongst males aged below 20. Females, however, were more likely than males to have a hospital-treated psychiatric disorder. By age 40, 13.25 % of females (95 % CI 13.16-13.33 %) and 9.98 % of males (95 % CI 9.91-10.06 %) had been treated. Women aged below 25 were also more likely than men to first attempt suicide, but this pattern was reversed beyond this age. The greatest gender differentials in incidence rates were in criminality outcomes. This is the first comprehensive assessment of the incidence rates and absolute risks of these multiple adverse outcomes

  8. Assessing the Clinical Role of Genetic Markers of Early-Onset Prostate Cancer Among High-Risk Men Enrolled in Prostate Cancer Early Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Lucinda; Zhu, Fang; Ross, Eric; Gross, Laura; Uzzo, Robert G.; Chen, David Y. T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Rebbeck, Timothy R.; Giri, Veda N.

    2011-01-01

    Background Men with familial prostate cancer (PCA) and African American men are at risk for developing PCA at younger ages. Genetic markers predicting early-onset PCA may provide clinically useful information to guide screening strategies for high-risk men. We evaluated clinical information from six polymorphisms associated with early-onset PCA in a longitudinal cohort of high-risk men enrolled in PCA early detection with significant African American participation. Methods Eligibility criteria include ages 35–69 with a family history of PCA or African American race. Participants undergo screening and biopsy per study criteria. Six markers associated with early-onset PCA (rs2171492 (7q32), rs6983561 (8q24), rs10993994 (10q11), rs4430796 (17q12), rs1799950 (17q21), and rs266849 (19q13)) were genotyped. Cox models were used to evaluate time to PCA diagnosis and PSA prediction for PCA by genotype. Harrell’s concordance index was used to evaluate predictive accuracy for PCA by PSA and genetic markers. Results 460 participants with complete data and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. 56% were African American. Among African American men, rs6983561 genotype was significantly associated with earlier time to PCA diagnosis (p=0.005) and influenced prediction for PCA by the PSA (p<0.001). When combined with PSA, rs6983561 improved predictive accuracy for PCA compared to PSA alone among African American men (PSA= 0.57 vs. PSA+rs6983561=0.75, p=0.03). Conclusions Early-onset marker rs6983561 adds potentially useful clinical information for African American men undergoing PCA risk assessment. Further study is warranted to validate these findings. Impact Genetic markers of early-onset PCA have potential to refine and personalize PCA early detection for high-risk men. PMID:22144497

  9. Risk of childhood overweight after exposure to tobacco smoking in prenatal and early postnatal life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Susanne Eifer; Ajslev, Teresa Adeltoft; Andersen, Camilla Schou

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between exposure to mothers smoking during prenatal and early postnatal life and risk of overweight at age 7 years, while taking birth weight into account. METHODS: From the Danish National Birth Cohort a total of 32,747 families were identified with avai......OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between exposure to mothers smoking during prenatal and early postnatal life and risk of overweight at age 7 years, while taking birth weight into account. METHODS: From the Danish National Birth Cohort a total of 32,747 families were identified...... with available information on maternal smoking status in child's pre- and postnatal life and child's birth weight, and weight and height at age 7 years. Outcome was overweight according to the International Obesity Task Force gender and age specific body mass index. Smoking exposure was categorized into four...... groups: no exposure (n = 25,076); exposure only during pregnancy (n = 3,343); exposure only postnatally (n = 140); and exposure during pregnancy and postnatally (n = 4,188). Risk of overweight according to smoking status as well as dose-response relationships were estimated by crude and adjusted odds...

  10. Continuous glucose monitoring system and new era of early diagnosis of diabetes in high risk groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Soliman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM systems are an emerging technology that allows frequent glucose measurements to monitor glucose trends in real time. Their use as a diagnostic tool is still developing and appears to be promising. Combining intermittent glucose self-monitoring (SGM and CGM combines the benefits of both. Significant improvement in the treatment modalities that may prevent the progress of prediabetes to diabetes have been achieved recently and dictates screening of high risk patients for early diagnosis and management of glycemic abnormalities. The use of CGMS in the diagnosis of early dysglycemia (prediabetes especially in high risk patients appears to be an attractive approach. In this review we searched the literature to investigate the value of using CGMS as a diagnostic tool compared to other known tools, namely oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT and measurement of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1C in high risk groups. Those categories of patients include adolescents and adults with obesity especially those with family history of type 2 diabetes mellitus, polycystic ovary syndrome (PCO, gestational diabetes, cystic fibrosis, thalassemia major, acute coronary syndrome (ACS, and after renal transplantation. It appears that the ability of the CGMS for frequently monitoring (every 5 min glucose changes during real-life settings for 3 to 5 days stretches the chance to detect more glycemic abnormalities during basal and postprandial conditions compared to other short-timed methods.

  11. Bridging the gaps: An early integrated support collaborative for at risk mothers in rural Maine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Jennifer; Withers, Marjorie; Konrad, Shelley Cohen; Buterbaugh, Carry; Spence, RuthAnne

    2015-01-01

    The antecedents that contribute to health disparities in maternal child health populations begin before birth and extend into the early prenatal and gestational growth periods. Mothers and infants living in rural poverty in particular are at considerable risk for problems associated with reproductive health, including pregnancy complications and premature births. The aim of this manuscript is thus two-fold, to describe the epidemiologic makeup of the community and the intervention model of the Community Caring Collaborative. Innovative models of early-integrated care for high-risk mothers and children are showing promise for long-term outcomes. They foster environments that enable mothers to trust health systems while maintaining a workforce of high functioning health workers who understand the mechanisms that underpin maternal and child health disparities. The Community Caring Collaborative in Washington County, Maine developed one such model that has made inroads in bridging such gaps. This manuscript explicates a case study of how the Community Caring Collaborative came into being and why it established the Bridging model of comprehensive care. The focus of this manuscript is thus two-fold, the community and the intervention model. The "bridging model" develops trust-based relationships between high-risk mothers with the health system and its multiple resources. Community members with advanced training provide the support and care linkages that are critical for family success. Innovative models of collaborative care impact the health of vulnerable mothers and their children working toward a marked decrease in health related disparities.

  12. Epigenetic markers for early detection of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in a high risk population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haryana Sofia M

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Undifferentiated nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC is strongly related to Epstein-Barr virus (EBV infection, allowing aberrant antibodies against EBV and viral DNA load as screening tools in high risk populations. Methylation analysis in the promoter of tumor suppressor genes (TSGs may serve as a complementary marker for identifying early cases. This study determined methylation status of multiple TSGs and evaluated whether it may improve early detection. Methods Nasopharyngeal brushings were taken from 53 NPC patients, 22 high risk subjects and 25 healthy EBV carriers. Corresponding NPC paraffin tissue was included. DNA was bisulfite-modified preceding analysis by methylation-specific PCR (MSP. Ten TSGs were studied. Results NPC paraffin and brushing DNA revealed an 81.8% concordance so that MSP analysis was done using either one of both specimens. NPC samples showed methylation for individual TSGs (DAPK1 79.2%, CDH13 77.4%, DLC1 76.9%, RASSF1A 75.5%, CADM1 69.8%, p16 66.0%, WIF1 61.2%, CHFR 58.5%, RIZ1 56.6% and RASSF2A 29.2%. High risk individuals, having elevated EBV IgA and viral load, showed high frequency of methylation of CDH13, DAPK1, DLC1 and CADM1, but low frequency of methylation of p16 and WIF1 and undetectable methylation of RASSF1A, CHFR, RIZ1 and RASSF2A. Healthy subjects showed similar patterns as high risk individuals. A combination of RASSF1A and p16 gave good discrimination between NPC and non-NPC, but best results were combined analysis of five methylation markers (RASSF1A, p16, WIF1, CHFR and RIZ1 with detection rate of 98%. Conclusion Multiple marker MSP is proposed as a complementary test for NPC risk assessment in combination with EBV-based markers.

  13. Energy restriction during childhood and early adulthood and ovarian cancer risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leo J Schouten

    Full Text Available Dietary energy restriction may protect against cancer. In parts of The Netherlands, mostly in larger cities, periods of chronically impaired nutrition and even severe famine (Hunger Winter 1944-1945 existed during the 1930s and World War II (1940-1945. We studied the association between energy restriction during childhood and early adulthood on the risk of ovarian cancer later in life. In 1986, the Netherlands Cohort Study was initiated. A self-administered questionnaire on dietary habits and other cancer risk factors was completed by 62,573 women aged 55-69 years at baseline. Follow-up for cancer was established by record linkage to the Netherlands Cancer Registry. After 16.3 years of follow-up, 364 invasive epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 2220 subcohort members (sampled from the total cohort directly after baseline with complete information confounders were available for case-cohort analyses. In multivariable analysis, ovarian cancer risk was lower for participants with an unemployed father during the 1930s (Hazard Ratio (HR, 0.70; 95% Confidence Interval (CI, 0.47-1.06 compared to participants with an employed father as well as for participants living in a city during World War II (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54-0.90 compared to participants living in the country-side. Residence in a Western City during the famine (Hunger Winter was not associated with a decreased risk. Our results show a relation between proxy variables for modest energy restriction over a longer period of time during childhood or early adulthood and a reduced ovarian cancer risk.

  14. The role of social risk in an early preventative care programme for infants born very preterm: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spittle, Alicia J; Treyvaud, Karli; Lee, Katherine J; Anderson, Peter J; Doyle, Lex W

    2018-01-01

    To examine the differential effects of an early intervention programme for infants born preterm on neurodevelopment and parental mental health according to family social risk. One hundred and twenty infants born earlier than 30 weeks' gestation were randomized to early intervention (n=61) or control groups (n=59). Cognitive, language, and motor outcomes were assessed by blinded assessors at 2 years, 4 years, and 8 years, and primary caregivers completed questionnaires on their anxiety and depression. Outcomes at each time point were compared between groups using linear regression with an interaction term for social risk (higher/lower). There was evidence of interactions between intervention group and social risk for cognition at 2 years and 4 years, motor function at 4 years, and language at 8 years, with a greater intervention effect in children from higher social risk environments. In contrast, the impact of early intervention on parental depressive symptoms was greater for parents of lower social risk than for those of higher social risk. Effects of early intervention on outcomes for children born preterm and their caregivers varied according to family social risk. Family social risk should be considered when implementing early intervention programmes for children born preterm and their families. Intervention is associated with better early cognitive functioning for children in higher social risk families. Positive effects of intervention for the high risk group were not sustained at school-age. Intervention has a greater effect on primary caregiver mental health in the lower social risk group compared with higher social risk. © 2017 Mac Keith Press.

  15. System-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, NEWTONP, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Program finds probability required to yield given system reliability. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  16. Common-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest, M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CROSSER, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), used independently of one another. Point of equality between reliability of system and common reliability of components found. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  17. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact...

  18. Cumulative Student Loan Debt in Minnesota, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Wyche, Shaun

    2016-01-01

    To better understand student debt in Minnesota, the Minnesota Office of Higher Education (the Office) gathers information on cumulative student loan debt from Minnesota degree-granting institutions. These data detail the number of students with loans by institution, the cumulative student loan debt incurred at that institution, and the percentage…

  19. Early respiratory acidosis is a new risk factor for pneumonia after lung resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planquette, Benjamin; Le Pimpec-Barthes, Françoise; Trinquart, Ludovic; Meyer, Guy; Riquet, Marc; Sanchez, Olivier

    2012-03-01

    Postoperative pneumonia (POP) is a life-threatening complication of lung resection (LR). Its risk factors, bacteriological profile and outcome are not well known. The aims of this study were to describe the outcome and causal bacteria and to identify risk factors for POP. We reviewed all cases admitted to intensive care after LR. Clinical parameters, operative and postoperative data were recorded. POP was suspected on the basis of fever, radiographic infiltrate, and either leucocytosis or purulent sputum. The diagnosis was confirmed by culture of a respiratory sample. Risk factors for POP were identified by univariate and multivariate analysis. We included 159 patients in this study. POP was diagnosed in 23 patients (14.4%) and was associated with a higher hospital mortality rate (30% versus 5%, P = 0.0007) and a longer hospital stay. Members of the Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas species were the most frequently identified pathogens. Early respiratory acidosis (ERA; OR, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.1-8.1), blood transfusion (OR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.1-13.1), bilobectomy (OR, 7.26; 95% CI, 1.2-43.1) and smoking history (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.1-3) were identified as independent risk factors. ERA may be a risk factor for POP and could serve as a target for therapeutic interventions.

  20. Do family dinners reduce the risk for early adolescent substance use? A propensity score analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, John P; Warnick, Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    The risks of early adolescent substance use on health and well-being are well documented. In recent years, several experts have claimed that a simple preventive measure for these behaviors is for families to share evening meals. In this study, we use data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Study of Youth (n = 5,419) to estimate propensity score models designed to match on a set of covariates and predict early adolescent substance use frequency and initiation. The results indicate that family dinners are not generally associated with alcohol or cigarette use or with drug use initiation. However, a continuous measure of family dinners is modestly associated with marijuana frequency, thus suggesting a potential causal impact. These results show that family dinners may help prevent one form of substance use in the short term but do not generally affect substance use initiation or alcohol and cigarette use.

  1. Cord serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D and risk of early childhood transient wheezing and atopic dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baïz, Nour; Dargent-Molina, Patricia; Wark, John D; Souberbielle, Jean-Claude; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence of the effect of maternal vitamin D intake during pregnancy on the risk of asthma and allergic outcomes in offspring. However, studies on the relationship between cord levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) and asthma and allergic diseases are very few. Our aim was to investigate the associations between cord serum 25(OH)D levels and asthma, wheezing, allergic rhinitis, and atopic dermatitis in the offspring from birth to 5 years. Cord blood samples were collected at birth and analyzed for 25(OH)D levels in 239 newborns from the Etude des Déterminants pré et post natals du développement et de la santé de l'Enfant (EDEN) birth cohort. The children were followed up until age 5 years by using International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood-based symptom questionnaires. The median cord serum level of 25(OH)D was 17.8 ng/mL (interquartile range, 15.1 ng/mL). By using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models, a significant inverse association was observed between cord serum 25(OH)D levels and risk of transient early wheezing and early- and late-onset atopic dermatitis, as well as atopic dermatitis, by the ages of 1, 2, 3, and 5 years. We found no association between cord serum 25(OH)D levels and asthma and allergic rhinitis at age 5 years. Cord serum 25(OH)D levels were inversely associated with the risk of transient early wheezing and atopic dermatitis by the age of 5 years, but no association was found with asthma and allergic rhinitis. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. [Early childhood development and risk factors in rural China: a cohort study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Y; Gao, J Q; Yue, A; Tang, L; Luo, R F; Scott, Rozelle

    2018-02-02

    Objective: To investigate the development status and risk factors of infants and toddlers in rural China. Methods: In this cohort study, 603 infants (6-12 months of age, Phase Ⅰ) in the rural areas of QinLing-Bashan (Qin-Ba) in Shaanxi were recruited in the control group that received no intervention from April 2013 to October 2015. Three follow-up visits were performed every six months (Phase Ⅱ(12-18 months of age), Phase Ⅲ (18-24 months of age) and Phase Ⅳ(24-30 months of age)). In all the 4 phases (Ⅰ-Ⅳ), general data of the children and the families were collected by questionnaires, early childhood growth and development were assessed by door to door visits, children's hemoglobin levels were determined by laboratory tests, and the cognitive and motor development screening was conducted by the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development. Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting the development of infants and toddlers in rural areas and the data were analyzed in terms of risk factors from infants, guardians and family. Results: Phase Ⅱ, Phase Ⅲ and Phase Ⅳ survey recruited 497, 483 and 486 participants respectively. The incidences of cognitive impairment (mental development scoresdevelopment scoresdevelopment of 24-30-month-old children was the mothers' poor education background (≤9 years of school education) ( OR= 2.56, Pdevelopment were the mothers' poor education background (≤9 years of school education) ( OR= 2.64, Pgrowth retardation ( OR= 2.95, P= 0.07). Conclusions: The early childhood development (especially cognitive development) in the rural areas of Qin-Ba in Shaanxi of China is not optimistic. More attention should be paid to the early childhood development in rural China, especially to the development of children from the mothers with poor education background.

  3. Strategy for an assessment of cumulative ecological impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, P.; Collins, J.; Nelsen, J.

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a strategy to conduct an assessment of the cumulative ecological impact of operations at the 300-square-mile Savannah River Site. This facility has over 400 identified waste units and contains several large watersheds. In addition to individual waste units, residual contamination must be evaluated in terms of its contribution to ecological risks at zonal and site-wide levels. DOE must be able to generate sufficient information to facilitate cleanup in the immediate future within the context of a site-wide ecological risk assessment that may not be completed for many years. The strategy superimposes a more global perspective on ecological assessments of individual waste units and provides strategic underpinnings for conducting individual screening-level and baseline risk assessments at the operable unit and zonal or watershed levels. It identifies ecological endpoints and risk assessment tools appropriate for each level of the risk assessment. In addition, it provides a clear mechanism for identifying clean sites through screening-level risk assessments and for elevating sites with residual contamination to the next level of assessment. Whereas screening-level and operable unit-level risk assessments relate directly to cleanup, zonal and site-wide assessments verity or confirm the overall effectiveness of remediation. The latter assessments must show, for example, whether multiple small areas with residual pesticide contamination that have minimal individual impact would pose a cumulative risk from bioaccumulation because they are within the habitat range of an ecological receptor

  4. Predictors of Early Rebleeding after Endoscopic Therapy in Patients with Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding Secondary to High-Risk Lesions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davide Maggio

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In an era of increasingly shortened admissions, data regarding predictors of early rebleeding among patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB exhibiting high-risk stigmata (HRS having undergone endoscopic hemostasis are lacking.

  5. Meta-analysis of early nonmotor features and risk factors for Parkinson disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noyce, Alastair J; Bestwick, Jonathan P; Silveira-Moriyama, Laura; Hawkes, Christopher H; Giovannoni, Gavin; Lees, Andrew J; Schrag, Anette

    2012-12-01

    To evaluate the association between diagnosis of Parkinson disease (PD) and risk factors or early symptoms amenable to population-based screening. A systematic review and meta-analysis of risk factors for PD. The strongest associations with later diagnosis of PD were found for having a first-degree or any relative with PD (odds ratio [OR], 3.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.65-3.93 and OR, 4.45; 95% CI, 3.39-5.83) or any relative with tremor (OR, 2.74; 95% CI, 2.10-3.57), constipation (relative risk [RR], 2.34; 95% CI, 1.55-3.53), or lack of smoking history (current vs never: RR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.39-0.50), each at least doubling the risk of PD. Further positive significant associations were found for history of anxiety or depression, pesticide exposure, head injury, rural living, beta-blockers, farming occupation, and well-water drinking, and negative significant associations were found for coffee drinking, hypertension, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, calcium channel blockers, and alcohol, but not for diabetes mellitus, cancer, oral contraceptive pill use, surgical menopause, hormone replacement therapy, statins, acetaminophen/paracetamol, aspirin, tea drinking, history of general anesthesia, or gastric ulcers. In the systematic review, additional associations included negative associations with raised serum urate, and single studies or studies with conflicting results. The strongest risk factors associated with later PD diagnosis are having a family history of PD or tremor, a history of constipation, and lack of smoking history. Further factors also but less strongly contribute to risk of PD diagnosis or, as some premotor symptoms, require further standardized studies to demonstrate the magnitude of risk associated with them. Copyright © 2012 American Neurological Association.

  6. Early sensitisation and development of allergic airway disease - risk factors and predictors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halken, Susanne

    2003-01-01

    The development and phenotypic expression of allergic airway disease depends on a complex interaction between genetic and several environmental factors, such as exposure to food, inhalant allergens and non-specific adjuvant factors (e.g. tobacco smoke, air pollution and infections). The first...... development of allergic disease at birth. Early sensitisation, cow's milk allergy and atopic eczema are predictors for later development of allergic airway disease. Exposure to indoor allergens, especially house dust mite allergens, is a risk factor for sensitisation and development of asthma later...

  7. Risk of developing palatally displaced canines in patients with early detectable dental anomalies: a retrospective cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    GARIB, Daniela Gamba; LANCIA, Melissa; KATO, Renata Mayumi; OLIVEIRA, Thais Marchini; NEVES, Lucimara Teixeira das

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The early recognition of risk factors for the occurrence of palatally displaced canines (PDC) can increase the possibility of impaction prevention. Objective To estimate the risk of PDC occurrence in children with dental anomalies identified early during mixed dentition. Material and Methods The sample comprised 730 longitudinal orthodontic records from children (448 females and 282 males) with an initial mean age of 8.3 years (SD=1.36). The dental anomaly group (DA) included 263...

  8. Nutrient and food intakes in early life and risk of childhood fractures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Händel, Mina N; Heitmann, Berit L; Abrahamsen, Bo

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The identification of detrimental dietary patterns early in life may contribute to reducing the high incidence of fracture among healthy children. However, information based on a systematic review of the effect of various dietary foods and nutrients on fracture risk is lacking......, Web of Science, and Scopus databases and by hand searching references by first author based on predefined inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis was carried out for case-control studies that examined differences in mean calcium intake in the case compared with the control group. Random-effects analysis...... of a systematic review of studies that were judged to be of high or medium quality, there is an indication that some nutritional factors seem to be associated with an increased fracture risk among children. The results may be inflated by selection bias, bias in diet reporting, or residual confounding. More high...

  9. EPA guidance on the early detection of clinical high risk states of psychoses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultze-Lutter, F; Michel, C; Schmidt, S J

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this guidance paper of the European Psychiatric Association is to provide evidence-based recommendations on the early detection of a clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis in patients with mental problems. To this aim, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies reporting on conversion rates...... to psychosis in non-overlapping samples meeting any at least any one of the main CHR criteria: ultra-high risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms criteria. Further, effects of potential moderators (different UHR criteria definitions, single UHR criteria and age) on conversion rates were examined. Conversion rates...... in the identified 42 samples with altogether more than 4000 CHR patients who had mainly been identified by UHR criteria and/or the basic symptom criterion 'cognitive disturbances' (COGDIS) showed considerable heterogeneity. While UHR criteria and COGDIS were related to similar conversion rates until 2-year follow...

  10. Predicting transitions in low and high levels of risk behavior from early to middle adolescence: the TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Monshouwer, K.; Harakeh, Z.; Lugtig, P.; Huizink, A.; Creemers, H.E.; Reijneveld, S.A.; de Winter, A.F.; van Oort, F.; Ormel, J.; Vollebergh, W.A.M.

    2012-01-01

    The present study examined the joint development of substance use and externalizing problems in early and middle adolescence. First, it was tested whether the relevant groups found in previous studies i.e., those with an early onset, a late onset, and no onset or low levels of risk behavior could be

  11. At-Risk Children and Otitis Media with Effusion: Management Issues for the Early Childhood Special Educator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medley, Lynn P.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    This article describes the implications of otitis media with effusion (OME) for children with disabilities who are already at risk for speech, language, and learning difficulties. The results of a survey of 189 early childhood special educators on management of young children with OME and the role of the early childhood special educator are…

  12. Impact of birth weight and early infant weight gain on insulin resistance and associated cardiovascular risk factors in adolescence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fabricius-Bjerre, Signe; Jensen, Rikke Beck; Færch, Kristine

    2011-01-01

    Low birth weight followed by accelerated weight gain during early childhood has been associated with adverse metabolic and cardiovascular outcomes later in life. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of early infant weight gain on glucose metabolism and cardiovascular risk factors...

  13. Linking Self-Regulation and Risk Proneness to Risky Sexual Behavior: Pathways through Peer Pressure and Early Substance Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crockett, Lisa J.; Raffaelli, Marcela; Shen, Yuh-Ling

    2006-01-01

    The linkages between self-regulation in childhood, risk proneness in early adolescence, and risky sexual behavior in mid-adolescence were examined in a cohort of children (N=518) from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The possible mediating role of two early adolescent variables (substance use and negative peer pressure) was also…

  14. Risk for Suicidal Ideation and Suicide Attempts Associated with Co-Occurring Depression and Conduct Problems in Early Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vander Stoep, Ann; Adrian, Molly; Mc Cauley, Elizabeth; Crowell, Sheila E.; Stone, Andrea; Flynn, Cynthia

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the early manifestation of co-occurring depression and conduct problems as a predictor of heightened risk for later suicidal ideation and behavior in a community sample of 521 adolescents. Self-reported symptoms of depression and conduct problems were evaluated in early 6th grade. Suicidal thoughts and behaviors were…

  15. Racial/ethnic differences in early-life risk factors for childhood obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taveras, Elsie M; Gillman, Matthew W; Kleinman, Ken; Rich-Edwards, Janet W; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L

    2010-04-01

    By the preschool years, racial/ethnic disparities in obesity prevalence are already present. The objective of this study was to examine racial/ethnic differences in early-life risk factors for childhood obesity. A total of 1343 white, 355 black, and 128 Hispanic mother-child pairs were studied in a prospective study. Mother's reported child's race/ethnicity. The main outcome measures were risk factors from the prenatal period through 4 years old that are known to be associated with child obesity. In multivariable models, compared with their white counterparts, black and Hispanic children exhibited a range of risk factors related to child obesity. In pregnancy, these included higher rates of maternal depression (odds ratio [OR]: 1.55 for black, 1.89 for Hispanic); in infancy more rapid weight gain (OR: 2.01 for black, 1.75 for Hispanic), more likely to introduce solid foods before 4 months of age (OR: 1.91 for black, 2.04 for Hispanic), and higher rates of maternal restrictive feeding practices (OR: 2.59 for black, 3.35 for Hispanic); and after 2 years old, more televisions in their bedrooms (OR: 7.65 for black, 7.99 for Hispanic), higher intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (OR: 4.11 for black, 2.48 for Hispanic), and higher intake of fast food (OR: 1.65 for black, 3.14 for Hispanic). Black and Hispanic children also had lower rates of exclusive breastfeeding and were less likely to sleep at least 12 hours/day in infancy. Racial/ethnic differences in risk factors for obesity exist prenatally and in early childhood. Racial/ethnic disparities in childhood obesity may be determined by factors that operate at the earliest stages of life.

  16. Risk Identification in the Early Design Stage Using Thermal Simulations—A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Masoud Sajjadian

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The likely increasing temperature predicted by UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP underlines the risk of overheating and potential increase in cooling loads in most of UK dwellings. This could also increase the possibility of failure in building performance evaluation methods and add even more uncertainty to the decision-making process in a low-carbon building design process. This paper uses a 55-unit residential unit project in Cardiff, UK as a case study to evaluate the potential of thermal simulations to identify risk in the early design stage. Overheating, increase in energy loads, carbon emissions, and thermal bridges are considered as potential risks in this study. DesignBuilder (DesignBuilder Software Ltd., Stroud, UK was the dynamic thermal simulation software used in this research. Simulations compare results in the present, 2050, and 2080 time slices and quantifies the overall cooling and heating loads required to keep the operative temperature within the comfort zone. Overall carbon emissions are also calculated and a considerable reduction in the future is predicted. Further analysis was taken by THERM (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA and Psi THERM (Passivate, London, UK to evaluate the thermal bridge risk in most common junctions of the case study and the results reveal the potential of thermal assessment methods to improve design details before the start of construction stage.

  17. The role of early life environmental risk factors in Parkinson disease: what is the evidence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logroscino, Giancarlo

    2005-09-01

    Parkinson disease (PD) is of unknown but presumably multifactorial etiology. Neuropathologic studies and animal models show that exposure to environmental neurotoxicants can determine progressive damage in the substantia nigra many years before the onset of clinical parkinsonism. Therefore, PD, like other neurologic diseases related to aging, may be determined by exposures present in the environment early during the life span or even during pregnancy. Recent epidemiologic studies have focused on the possible role of environmental risk factors present during adult life or aging. Smoking and coffee drinking have consistently been identified to have protective associations, whereas roles of other risk factors such as pesticide and infections have been reported in some studies but not replicated in others. Both genetic inheritance and sharing of common environment in the same family explain the increased risk of PD of relatives of PD cases compared with relatives of controls in familial aggregation studies. Much evidence indicates that risk factors that have a long latency or a slow effect could be important for late-onset PD. Further epidemiologic studies are warranted in this area.

  18. Dynamic prediction of cumulative incidence functions by direct binomial regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand, Mia K; de Witte, Theo J M; Putter, Hein

    2018-03-25

    In recent years there have been a series of advances in the field of dynamic prediction. Among those is the development of methods for dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function in a competing risk setting. These models enable the predictions to be updated as time progresses and more information becomes available, for example when a patient comes back for a follow-up visit after completing a year of treatment, the risk of death, and adverse events may have changed since treatment initiation. One approach to model the cumulative incidence function in competing risks is by direct binomial regression, where right censoring of the event times is handled by inverse probability of censoring weights. We extend the approach by combining it with landmarking to enable dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function. The proposed models are very flexible, as they allow the covariates to have complex time-varying effects, and we illustrate how to investigate possible time-varying structures using Wald tests. The models are fitted using generalized estimating equations. The method is applied to bone marrow transplant data and the performance is investigated in a simulation study. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  19. Management strategies, early results, benefits, and risk factors of laparoscopic repair of perforated peptic ulcer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunevicius, Raimundas; Morkevicius, Matas

    2005-10-01

    The primary goal of this study was to describe epidemiology and management strategies of the perforated duodenal ulcer, as well as the most common methods of laparoscopic perforated duodenal ulcer repair. The secondary goal was to demonstrate the value of prospective and retrospective studies regarding the early results of surgery and the risk factors. The tertiary goal was to emphasize the benefits of this operation, and the fourth goal was to clarify the possible risk factors associated with laparoscopic repair of the duodenal ulcer. The Medline/Pubmed database was used. Review was done after evaluation of 96 retrieved full-text articles. Thirteen prospective and twelve retrospective studies were selected, grouped, and summarized. The spectrum of the retrospective studies' results are as follows: median overall morbidity rate 10.5 %, median conversion rate 7%, median hospital stay 7 days, and median postoperative mortality rate 0%. The following is the spectrum of results of the prospective studies: median overall morbidity rate was slightly less (6%); the median conversion rate was higher (15%); the median hospital stay was shorter (5 days) and the postoperative mortality was higher (3%). The risk factors identified were the same. Shock, delayed presentation (> 24 hours), confounding medical condition, age > 70 years, poor laparoscopic expertise, ASA III-IV, and Boey score should be considered preoperative laparoscopic repair risk factors. Each of these factors independently should qualify as a criterion for open repair due to higher intraoperative risks as well as postoperative morbidity. Inadequate ulcer localization, large perforation size (defined by some as > 6 mm diameter, and by others as > 10 mm), and ulcers with friable edges are also considered as conversion risk factors.

  20. Low cardiorespiratory fitness in people at risk for type 2 diabetes: early marker for insulin resistance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leite Silmara AO

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Purpose There is a significant association between insulin resistance and low cardiorespiratory fitness in nondiabetic subjects. In a population with risk factors for type 2 diabetes (T2DM, before they are insulin resistant, we investigated low exercise capacity (VO2max as an early marker of impaired insulin sensitivity in order to determine earlier interventions to prevent development of insulin resistance syndrome (IRS and T2DM. Methods Cross-sectional analyses of data on 369 (78 men and 291 women people at risk for IRS and T2DM, aged 45.6 +/- 10 years (20-65 years old from the Community Diabetes Prevention Project in Minnesota were carried out. The cardiorespiratory fitness (VO2max by respiratory gas exchange and bicycle ergometer were measured in our at risk non insulin resistant population and compared with a control group living in the same geographic area. Both groups were equally sedentary, matched for age, gender and BMI. Results The most prevalent abnormality in the study population was markedly low VO2max when compared with general work site screening control group, (n = 177; 137F; 40 M, mean age 40 ± 11 years; BMI = 27.8 ± 6.1 kg/m2. Individuals at risk for IRS and T2DM had a VO2max (22 ± 6 ml/kg/min 15% lower than the control group VO2max (26 ± 9 ml/kg/min (p 2max was inversely correlated with HOMA-IR (r = -0.30, p Conclusions Decreased VO2max is correlated with impaired insulin sensitivity and was the most prevalent abnormality in a population at risk for IRS and T2DM but without overt disease. This raises the possibility that decreased VO2 max is among the earliest indicators of IRS and T2DM therefore, an important risk factor for disease progression.

  1. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  2. Quantifying risk of early relapse in patients with first demyelinating events: Prediction in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spelman, Tim; Meyniel, Claire; Rojas, Juan Ignacio; Lugaresi, Alessandra; Izquierdo, Guillermo; Grand'Maison, Francois; Boz, Cavit; Alroughani, Raed; Havrdova, Eva; Horakova, Dana; Iuliano, Gerardo; Duquette, Pierre; Terzi, Murat; Grammond, Pierre; Hupperts, Raymond; Lechner-Scott, Jeannette; Oreja-Guevara, Celia; Pucci, Eugenio; Verheul, Freek; Fiol, Marcela; Van Pesch, Vincent; Cristiano, Edgardo; Petersen, Thor; Moore, Fraser; Kalincik, Tomas; Jokubaitis, Vilija; Trojano, Maria; Butzkueven, Helmut

    2017-09-01

    Characteristics at clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) examination assist in identification of patient at highest risk of early second attack and could benefit the most from early disease-modifying drugs (DMDs). To examine determinants of second attack and validate a prognostic nomogram for individualised risk assessment of clinical conversion. Patients with CIS were prospectively followed up in the MSBase Incident Study. Predictors of clinical conversion were analysed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Prognostic nomograms were derived to calculate conversion probability and validated using concordance indices. A total of 3296 patients from 50 clinics in 22 countries were followed up for a median (inter-quartile range (IQR)) of 1.92 years (0.90, 3.71). In all, 1953 (59.3%) patients recorded a second attack. Higher Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at baseline, first symptom location, oligoclonal bands and various brain and spinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metrics were all predictors of conversion. Conversely, older age and DMD exposure post-CIS were associated with reduced rates. Prognostic nomograms demonstrated high concordance between estimated and observed conversion probabilities. This multinational study shows that age at CIS onset, DMD exposure, EDSS, multiple brain and spinal MRI criteria and oligoclonal bands are associated with shorter time to relapse. Nomogram assessment may be useful in clinical practice for estimating future clinical conversion.

  3. Mitochondrial Epigenetic Changes Link to Increased Diabetes Risk and Early-Stage Prediabetes Indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Louise D.; Linarelli, Leah E.; Brooke, Joseph; Smith, Cayleen; Wall, Sarah S.; Greenawald, Mark H.; Seidel, Richard W.; Estabrooks, Paul A.; Almeida, Fabio A.; Cheng, Zhiyong

    2016-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is characterized by mitochondrial derangement and oxidative stress. With no known cure for T2D, it is critical to identify mitochondrial biomarkers for early diagnosis of prediabetes and disease prevention. Here we examined 87 participants on the diagnosis power of fasting glucose (FG) and hemoglobin A1c levels and investigated their interactions with mitochondrial DNA methylation. FG and A1c led to discordant diagnostic results irrespective of increased body mass index (BMI), underscoring the need of new biomarkers for prediabetes diagnosis. Mitochondrial DNA methylation levels were not correlated with late-stage (impaired FG or A1c) but significantly with early-stage (impaired insulin sensitivity) events. Quartiles of BMI suggested that mitochondrial DNA methylation increased drastically from Q1 (20 40, morbidly obese). A significant change was also observed from Q1 to Q2 in HOMA insulin sensitivity but not in A1c or FG. Thus, mitochondrial epigenetic changes link to increased diabetes risk and the indicator of early-stage prediabetes. Further larger-scale studies to examine the potential of mitochondrial epigenetic marker in prediabetes diagnosis will be of critical importance for T2D prevention. PMID:27298712

  4. HRAS: a webserver for early warning of human health risk brought by aflatoxin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Ruifeng; Zeng, Xu; Gao, Weiwei; Wang, Qian; Liu, Zhihua

    2013-02-01

    Most people are aware that outdoor air pollution can damage their health, but many do not know that indoor air pollution can also exhibit significant negative health effects. Fungi parasitizing in air conditioning and ventilation systems can be one of indoor air pollution sources. Aflatoxin produced by Aspergillus flavus (A. flavus) became a central focus of indoor air pollution, especially in farmer markets. Therefore we developed an early warning system, Health Risk Assessment System, to estimate the growth rate of A. flavus, predict the amount of aflatoxin and provide early warning information. Firstly, the growth of A. flavus and the production of aflatoxin under different conditions were widely obtained through a comprehensive literature review. Secondly, three mathematical models were established to predict the A. flavus colony growth rate, lag phase duration and aflatoxin content, as functions of temperature and water activity based on present studies. Finally, all the results were evaluated by the user-supplied data using PHP programming language. We utilized the web page to show the results and display warning information. The JpGraph library was used to create a dynamic line chart, refreshing the warning information dynamically in real-time. The HARS provides accurate information for early warning purposes to let us take timely steps to protect ourselves.

  5. Early Heparin Administration Reduces Risk for Left Atrial Thrombus Formation during Atrial Fibrillation Ablation Procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Asbach

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Despite the use of anticoagulation during left atrial (LA ablation procedures, ischemic cerebrovascular accidents (CVAs are recognized as a serious complication. Heparin is usually given after safe transseptal access has been obtained, resulting in a short unprotected dwell time of catheters within the LA, which may account for CVAs. We investigated the frequency of CVAs and LA thrombus formation as detected by intracardiac ultrasound (ICE depending on the timing of heparin administration. Methods and Results. Sixty LA ablation procedures with the use of ICE were performed in 55 patients. Patients were grouped by heparin administration after (Group I, =13 and before (Group II, =47 transseptal access. Group I patients were younger (56.6±13.7 versus 65.9±9.9 years, =.01; other clinical and echocardiographic characteristics did not differ between groups. Early thrombus formation was observed in 2 (15.4% of group I patients as compared to 0% of group II patients (=.04. One CVA (2.1% occurred in one group II patient without prior thrombus detection, and none occurred in group I patients (=ns. Conclusion. Early administration of heparin reduces the risk of early intracardiac thrombus formation during LA ablation procedures. This did not result in reduced rate of CVAs.

  6. Early risk factors for being a bully, victim, or bully/victim in late elementary and early secondary education : The longitudinal TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, D.E.M.C.; Veenstra, R.; Ormel, J.; Verhulst, F.C.; Reijneveld, S.A.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Data regarding the impact of early risk factors on later involvement in bullying are scarce. We investigated the impact of preschool behaviors, family characteristics (socio-economic status, family breakup) and parental mental health on bullying and victimization at age 11 (T1) and age

  7. Early risk factors for being a bully, victim, or bully/victim in late elementary and early secondary education. the longitudinal TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.E.M.C. Jansen (Daniëlle); R. Veenstra (René); J. Ormel (Johan Hans); F.C. Verhulst (Frank); S.A. Reijneveld (Sijmen)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Data regarding the impact of early risk factors on later involvement in bullying are scarce. We investigated the impact of preschool behaviors, family characteristics (socio-economic status, family breakup) and parental mental health on bullying and victimization at age 11

  8. Intraoperative radiotherapy for early breast cancer: do health professionals choose convenience or risk?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corica, Tammy; Joseph, David; Saunders, Christobel; Bulsara, Max; Nowak, Anna K

    2014-01-01

    The randomized TARGIT trial comparing experimental intra-operative radiotherapy (IORT) to up to 7 weeks of daily conventional external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) recruited participants in Western Australia between 2003 and 2012. We aimed to understand preferences for this evolving radiotherapy treatment for early breast cancer (EBC) in health professionals, and how they changed over time and in response to emerging data. Preferences for single dose IORT or EBRT for EBC were elicited in 2004 and 2011, together with factors that may be associated with these preferences. Western Australian health professionals working with breast cancer patients were invited to complete a validated, self-administered questionnaire. The questionnaire used hypothetical scenarios and trade-off methodology to determine the maximum increase in risk of local recurrence health professionals were willing to accept in order to have a single dose of IORT in the place of EBRT if they were faced with this decision themselves. Health professional characteristics were similar across the two time points although 2011 included a higher number of nurse (49% vs. 36%) and allied health (10% vs. 4%) participants and a lower number of radiation therapists (17% vs. 32%) compared to 2004. Health professional preferences varied, with 7.5% and 3% judging IORT unacceptable at any risk, 18% and 21% judging IORT acceptable only if offering an equivalent risk, 56% and 59% judging IORT acceptable with a low maximum increase in risk (1-3%) and 19% and 17% judging a high maximum increase in risk acceptable (4-5%), in 2004 and 2011 respectively. A significantly greater number of nurses accepted IORT as a treatment option in 2011. Most Western Australian health professionals working with breast cancer patients are willing to accept an increase in risk of local recurrence in order to replace EBRT with IORT in a hypothetical setting. This finding was consistent over two time points spanning 7 years despite the duration of

  9. Workshop "Emerging risks and early warning systems" : deelproject 1.2 : miniconferentie over roegtijdig signalering en waarschuwingssystemen

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koenderink, N.J.J.P.; Kreft, F.

    2007-01-01

    This report is the result of the workshop “Emerging risks and early warning system” held in Wageningen, the Netherlands on October the 19th 2006. The workshop is part of the project “Emerging risks in Dutch food chains”. The purpose of this project is to develop a procedure to identify potential

  10. Relationships of Pubertal Development among Early Adolescents to Sexual and Nonsexual Risk Behaviors and Caregivers' Parenting Behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Helen P.; Rose, Allison; Bhaskar, Brinda; Walker, Leslie R.

    2012-01-01

    Using a school-based sample of fifth graders (mean age = 10.38, SD = 0.66) and their parents (N = 408) from Washington, D.C., the authors examine associations of pubertal development with early adolescents' sexual and nonsexual risk behaviors and their caregivers' parenting behaviors and of these risk behaviors with parenting behaviors. Results…

  11. The relevance of the early history of probability theory to current risk assessment practices in mental health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Large, Matthew

    2013-12-01

    Probability theory is at the base of modern concepts of risk assessment in mental health. The aim of the current paper is to review the key developments in the early history of probability theory in order to enrich our understanding of current risk assessment practices.

  12. Asthma prevalence and risk factors in early childhood at Northern Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.T.B.S. Branco

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Asthma is the commonest and most important chronic non-infectious disease in childhood and it has become more prevalent in recent years. There is a shortage of studies in relation to early childhood and so, as part of the INAIRCHILD project, this cross-sectional study aimed to assess the prevalence of asthma and its associated risk factors, namely demographic, environmental, psychosocial and clinical factors for infants and preschoolers living in Northern Portugal. Data concerning asthma prevalence were collected through questionnaires based on those from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC-derived, the questionnaires were distributed to 1042 children attending the 17 nurseries involved in the INAIRCHILD project (10 in urban and suburban context, and 7 in rural context. The response rate was 48%. Prevalence of asthma based on symptomatology and odds ratio was calculated. Around 52% of the studied children presented at least one of the respiratory symptoms investigated (wheeze, dyspnea and cough in the absence of upper respiratory infections. The prevalence of asthma was 10.7%, comparable to the figures for Portuguese schoolchildren (6–7 years old reported by the national Directorate-General of Health, thus showing that an early diagnosis might be possible and helpful for the mitigation of childhood asthma. Environmental context (urban, suburban or rural, gender and family asthma history showed clear associations with asthma prevalence, namely non-rural location, male gender, and having an asthmatic parent were found to be risk factors. Keywords: Asthma, Children, Demographic, Environmental, Psychosocial and clinical risk factors

  13. Risk factors for recurrence after conservative treatment in early breast cancer; Preliminary report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, C O; Chung, E J; Lee, H D; Lee, K S; Oh, K K; Kim, G E [Yonsei Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Coll. of Medicine

    1997-12-01

    To evaluate our experience in the breast-conserving treatment for early breast cancer with special regard to recurrence pattern and related risk factors. Two hundred and sixteen patients with AJC stage I and II beast cancer who received breast conserving treatment between January 1991 and December 1994 were evaluated. Age distribution ranged from 23-80 year old with a median age of 44. One hundred and seventeen patients had T1 lesions and 99 patients had T2 lesions. Axillary lymph nodes were involved in 73 patients. All patients received a breast conserving surgery (wide excision to quadrantectomy) and axillary node dissection followed by radiotherapy. Ninety six patients received chemotherapy before or after radiotherapy. During the follow-up period (3-60 months, median 30 months), local recurrence were noted in six patients (true; 3, elsewhere; 1, skin; 2). Sixteen patients developed distant metastases as the first sign of recurrence at 8-38 months (median 20 months) after surgery. Among them, three patients simultaneously developed local recurrence with distant metastases. Contralateral breast cancer developed in one patient and non-mammary cancers developed in three patients. The actuarial 5 year survival rate was 88.4% (stage I: 96.7%, stage IIa: 95.2%, stage IIb 69.9%). Age, T stage, number of involved axillary lymph nodes, and AJC stage were risk factors for distant metastases in univariate analysis. In the multivariate analysis, the number of involved axillary lymph nodes was the most significant risk factor for metastases. Local recurrence was not common in the early years after radiotherapy. Distant metastases occurred at a steady rate during the first three years and was more common in the patients with larger tumors, higher number of involved axillary nodes, and younger age. (author).

  14. Psychosocial risk factors for hospital readmission in COPD patients on early discharge services: a cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd Christopher J

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hospital readmission for acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD occurs in up to 30% of patients, leading to excess morbidity and poor survival. Physiological risk factors predict readmission, but the impact of modifiable psychosocial risk factors remains uncertain. We aimed to evaluate whether psychosocial risk factors independently predict readmission for AECOPD in patients referred to early discharge services (EDS. Methods This prospective cohort study included 79 patients with AECOPD cared for by nurse led EDS in the UK, and followed up for 12 months. Data on lung function, medical comorbidities, previous hospital admissions, medications, and sociodemographics were collected at baseline; St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS, and social support were measured at baseline, 3 and 12-months. Exploratory multivariate models were fitted to identify psychosocial factors associated with readmission adjusted for known confounders. Results 26 patients were readmitted within 90 days and 60 patients were readmitted at least once during follow-up. Depression at baseline predicted readmission adjusted for sociodemographics and forced expiratory volume in 1 second (odds ratio 1.30, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.60, p = 0.013. Perceived social support was not significantly associated with risk of readmission. Home ownership was associated with the total number of readmissions (B = 0.46, 95% CI -0.86 to -0.06, p = 0.024. Compared with those not readmitted, readmitted patients had worse SGRQ and HADS scores at 12 months. Conclusion Depressive symptoms and socioeconomic status, but not perceived social support, predict risk of readmission and readmission frequency for AECOPD in patients cared for by nurse-led EDS. Future work on reducing demand for unscheduled hospital admissions could include the design and evaluation of interventions aimed at optimising the psychosocial care of AECOPD patients managed at

  15. Rye bread consumption in early life and reduced risk of advanced prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torfadottir, Johanna E; Valdimarsdottir, Unnur A; Mucci, Lorelei; Stampfer, Meir; Kasperzyk, Julie L; Fall, Katja; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Aspelund, Thor; Olafsson, Orn; Harris, Tamara B; Jonsson, Eirikur; Tulinius, Hrafn; Adami, Hans-Olov; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Steingrimsdottir, Laufey

    2012-06-01

    To determine whether consumption of whole-grain rye bread, oatmeal, and whole-wheat bread, during different periods of life, is associated with risk of prostate cancer (PCa). From 2002 to 2006, 2,268 men, aged 67-96 years, reported their dietary habits in the AGES-Reykjavik cohort study. Dietary habits were assessed for early life, midlife, and current life using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Through linkage to cancer and mortality registers, we retrieved information on PCa diagnosis and mortality through 2009. We used regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and hazard ratios (HRs) for PCa according to whole-grain consumption, adjusted for possible confounding factors including fish, fish liver oil, meat, and milk intake. Of the 2,268 men, 347 had or were diagnosed with PCa during follow-up, 63 with advanced disease (stage 3+ or died of PCa). Daily rye bread consumption in adolescence (vs. less than daily) was associated with a decreased risk of PCa diagnosis (OR = 0.76, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.59-0.98) and of advanced PCa (OR = 0.47, 95 % CI: 0.27-0.84). High intake of oatmeal in adolescence (≥5 vs. ≤4 times/week) was not significantly associated with risk of PCa diagnosis (OR = 0.99, 95 % CI: 0.77-1.27) nor advanced PCa (OR = 0.67, 95 % CI: 0.37-1.20). Midlife and late life consumption of rye bread, oatmeal, or whole-wheat bread was not associated with PCa risk. Our results suggest that rye bread consumption in adolescence may be associated with reduced risk of PCa, particularly advanced disease.

  16. A Bayesian framework for early risk prediction in traumatic brain injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaganti, Shikha; Plassard, Andrew J.; Wilson, Laura; Smith, Miya A.; Patel, Mayur B.; Landman, Bennett A.

    2016-03-01

    Early detection of risk is critical in determining the course of treatment in traumatic brain injury (TBI). Computed tomography (CT) acquired at admission has shown latent prognostic value in prior studies; however, no robust clinical risk predictions have been achieved based on the imaging data in large-scale TBI analysis. The major challenge lies in the lack of consistent and complete medical records for patients, and an inherent bias associated with the limited number of patients samples with high-risk outcomes in available TBI datasets. Herein, we propose a Bayesian framework with mutual information-based forward feature selection to handle this type of data. Using multi-atlas segmentation, 154 image-based features (capturing intensity, volume and texture) were computed over 22 ROIs in 1791 CT scans. These features were combined with 14 clinical parameters and converted into risk likelihood scores using Bayes modeling. We explore the prediction power of the image features versus the clinical measures for various risk outcomes. The imaging data alone were more predictive of outcomes than the clinical data (including Marshall CT classification) for discharge disposition with an area under the curve of 0.81 vs. 0.67, but less predictive than clinical data for discharge Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score with an area under the curve of 0.65 vs. 0.85. However, in both cases, combining imaging and clinical data increased the combined area under the curve with 0.86 for discharge disposition and 0.88 for discharge GCS score. In conclusion, CT data have meaningful prognostic value for TBI patients beyond what is captured in clinical measures and the Marshall CT classification.

  17. Latino children’s autonomic nervous system reactivity moderates the relations between cumulative socioeconomic adversity in the first five years and externalizing behavior problems at seven years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abbey Alkon

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Thirty-seven percent of Hispanic and Latino children under 5 years of age are living in poverty in the United States. Children growing up under conditions of cumulative adversity are at much greater risk for compromised psychosocial adjustment with long-lasting ramifications for mental and physical health. This study assessed whether the relations between adversity early in life and later externalizing behaviors was moderated by children’s autonomic nervous system (ANS reactivity for immigrant, poor, MexicanAmerican children. Methods: A cumulative socioeconomic adversity index of children’s exposure to poverty, father’s absence, household crowding, mothers speaking Spanish, and poor housing condition at 6 months and 1, 3.5, and 5 years of age was calculated. At 5 years, ANS profiles during resting and social- and emotion-evoking challenges were calculated as combined parasympathetic and sympathetic difference scores. At 7 years, parents assessed children’s externalizing behavior problems. Results: Multiple regression models (n=220 showed that the relations between cumulative socioeconomic adversity and externalizing behaviors were moderated by children’s ANS profiles of coactivation during a social, not emotion-evoking, challenge, controlling for relevant covariates. Conclusions: Children living in adverse conditions early in life with specific psychobiologic responses to social challenges may be at risk for developing externalizing behavior problems later in life.

  18. The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and Mental Health of Employees in ... CAs were measured in three forms (family adversities (CAFam), personal adversities ... Age of employees ranged between 18-65 years.

  19. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children’s learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission—the cornerstone of human cultural diversity. PMID:28739945

  20. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querbes, A.; Vaesen, K.; Houkes, W.N.

    2014-01-01

    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological

  1. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J; Halpern, Benjamin S; Breed, Greg A; Nickel, Barry; Teutschel, Nicole M; Crowder, Larry B; Benson, Scott; Dutton, Peter H; Bailey, Helen; Kappes, Michelle A; Kuhn, Carey E; Weise, Michael J; Mate, Bruce; Shaffer, Scott A; Hassrick, Jason L; Henry, Robert W; Irvine, Ladd; McDonald, Birgitte I; Robinson, Patrick W; Block, Barbara A; Costa, Daniel P

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact (CUI) on marine predators by combining electronic tracking data of eight protected predator species (n=685 individuals) in the California Current Ecosystem with data on 24 anthropogenic stressors. We show significant variation in CUI with some of the highest impacts within US National Marine Sanctuaries. High variation in underlying species and cumulative impact distributions means that neither alone is sufficient for effective spatial management. Instead, comprehensive management approaches accounting for both cumulative human impacts and trade-offs among multiple stressors must be applied in planning the use of marine resources.

  2. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legare, Cristine H

    2017-07-24

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibil