Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fort, H [Complex Systems Group, Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Mazzeo, N [Depto. de EcologIa, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Scheffer, M; Nes, E van, E-mail: hugo@fisica.edu.u [Wageningen Agricultural University, Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

2010-09-01

Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fort, H; Mazzeo, N; Scheffer, M; Nes, E van

2010-01-01

Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

Failure Prediction for Autonomous Driving

OpenAIRE

Hecker, Simon; Dai, Dengxin; Van Gool, Luc

2018-01-01

The primary focus of autonomous driving research is to improve driving accuracy. While great progress has been made, state-of-the-art algorithms still fail at times. Such failures may have catastrophic consequences. It therefore is important that automated cars foresee problems ahead as early as possible. This is also of paramount importance if the driver will be asked to take over. We conjecture that failures do not occur randomly. For instance, driving models may fail more likely at places ...

Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitri Titeca-Beauport

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

Early failure analysis of machining centers: a case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yiqiang; Jia Yazhou; Jiang Weiwei

2001-01-01

To eliminate the early failures and improve the reliability, nine ex-factory machining centers are traced under field conditions in workshops. Their early failure information throughout the ex-factory run-in test is collected. The field early failure database is constructed based on the collection of field early failure data and the codification of data. Early failure mode and effects analysis is performed to indicate the weak subsystem of a machining center or the troublemaker. The distribution of the time between early failures is analyzed and the optimal ex-factory run-in test time for machining center that may expose sufficiently the early failures and cost minimum is discussed. Suggestions how to arrange ex-factory run-in test and how to take actions to reduce early failures for machining center is proposed

Environmental catastrophes under time-inconsistent preference

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michielsen, T.

2013-02-15

I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time inconsistency as generations disagree on the relative weights on utility and catastrophe prevention. As a consequence, future generations emit too much from the current generation's perspective and a dynamic game ensues. I consider a sequence of models. When the environmental problem is related to a scarce exhaustible resource, early generations have an incentive to reduce emissions in Markov equilibrium in order to enhance the ecosystem's resilience to future emissions. When the pollutant is expected to become obsolete in the near future, early generations may however increase their emissions if this reduces future emissions. When polluting inputs are abundant and expected to remain essential, the catastrophe becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and the degree of concern for catastrophe prevention has limited or even no effect on equilibrium behaviour.

Multiorgan failure and antiphospholipid antibodies: the catastrophic antiphospholipid (Asherson's) syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Asherson, Ronald A

2005-01-01

A review of 250 patients with the catastrophic antiphospholipid (Asherson's) syndrome (CAPS) taken from the web site organized by the Europhospholipid Group (http://www.med.ub.es/MIMMUN/FORUM/CAPS.HTM) is presented in this paper. A short historical overview of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is followed by a description of the "triggering" factors, associated autoimmune diseases, clinical presentation, presumed pathogenesis, prognosis, mode of death and suggested therapies. Triggering factors are present in approximately 50% of patients and consist predominantly of infections, trauma, including minor surgical procedures such as biopsies, obstetric-related multiorgan failure and malignancy-associated CAPS. The patients present mainly with multiorgan failure resulting from predominantly small vessel occlusions affecting mainly intra-abdominal organs such as bowel, liver, pancreas, and adrenals, although large vessel occlusions do occur and comprise mainly deep vein thromboses (DVT) of the veins of the lower limbs and arterial occlusions causing strokes and peripheral gangrene. They do not however dominate the clinical picture. The condition differs considerably from the simple/classic APS in several respects, viz. the rapid development of multiorgan failure following the above-mentioned identifiable precipitating factors, the involvement of unusual organs such as bowel, reproductive organs, and bone marrow, complicating features of disseminated intravascular coagulation in 20% of cases, the acute (adult) respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in one third of patients, and severe thrombocytopenia; these not being encountered in the simple/classic APS. Treatment consisting of regular and repeated plasma exchanges using fresh frozen plasma, and IV immunoglobulins in addition to parenteral steroids and anticoagulation are necessary to improve the survival in a condition where the mortality is still of the order of 50%. Treatment may have to be continued for several

Evaluation Aspects of Building Structures Reconstructed After a Failure or Catastrophe

Science.gov (United States)

Krentowski, Janusz R.; Knyziak, Piotr

2017-10-01

The article presents the characteristics of several steel structures, among others modernized industrial dye house, school sports hall, truck repair workshop, that have been rebuilt after a disaster or a catastrophe. The structures were analyzed in detail, and the evaluation and reconstruction processes were described. The emergencies that occurred during exploitation of the buildings were the result of multiple mistakes: incorrectly defined intervals between inspections, errors during periodic inspections, incorrect repair work recommendations. The concepts of reinforcement work implemented by the authors, enabling the long-term future failure-free operation of the objects, were presented. Recommendations for monitoring of the facilities, applied after reinforcement or reconstruction, have been formulated. The methodology for the implementation of specialized investigations, such as geodetic, optical, geological, chemical strength tests, both destructive and non-destructive, has been defined. The need to determine the limit values of deformations, deflections, damage or other faults of structural elements and the entire rebuilt facilities, as well as defining conditions for objects’ withdrawal from operation in subsequent exceptional situations was indicated.

Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinge LIU

Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pregnancy. Clinical report.

Science.gov (United States)

Khizroeva, J; Bitsadze, V; Makatsariya, A

2018-01-08

We have observed the development of a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a pregnant woman hospitalized at 28 weeks of gestation with a severe preeclampsia. On the same day, an eclampsia attack developed, and an emergency surgical delivery was performed. On the third day, multiorgan failure developed. Examination showed a persistent circulation of lupus anticoagulant, high level of antibodies to cardiolipin, b2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. The usual diagnosis of the severe preeclampsia masked a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, exacerbated by the coincident presence of several types of antiphospholipid antibodies. The first pregnancy resulted in a premature birth at 25 weeks, possibly also due to the circulation of antiphospholipid antibodies. The trigger of the catastrophic form development was the pregnancy itself, surgical intervention, and hyperhomocysteinemia. CAPS is the most severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, manifested in multiple microthrombosis of microcirculation of vital organs and in the development of multiorgan failure against the background of the high level of antiphospholipid antibodies. CAPS is characterized by renal, cerebral, gastrointestinal, adrenal, ovarian, skin, and other forms of microthrombosis. Thrombosis recurrence is typical. Thrombotic microvasculopathy lies at the heart of multiorgan failure and manifests clinically in central nervous system lesions, adrenal insufficiency, and ARDS development. CAPS is a life-threatening condition, therefore, requires an urgent treatment. Optimal treatment of CAPS is not developed. CAPS represent a general medical multidisciplinary problem.

Extreme events and predictability of catastrophic failure in composite materials and in the Earth

Science.gov (United States)

Main, I.; Naylor, M.

2012-05-01

Despite all attempts to isolate and predict extreme earthquakes, these nearly always occur without obvious warning in real time: fully deterministic earthquake prediction is very much a `black swan'. On the other hand engineering-scale samples of rocks and other composite materials often show clear precursors to dynamic failure under controlled conditions in the laboratory, and successful evacuations have occurred before several volcanic eruptions. This may be because extreme earthquakes are not statistically special, being an emergent property of the process of dynamic rupture. Nevertheless, probabilistic forecasting of event rate above a given size, based on the tendency of earthquakes to cluster in space and time, can have significant skill compared to say random failure, even in real-time mode. We address several questions in this debate, using examples from the Earth (earthquakes, volcanoes) and the laboratory, including the following. How can we identify `characteristic' events, i.e. beyond the power law, in model selection (do dragon-kings exist)? How do we discriminate quantitatively between stationary and non-stationary hazard models (is a dragon likely to come soon)? Does the system size (the size of the dragon's domain) matter? Are there localising signals of imminent catastrophic failure we may not be able to access (is the dragon effectively invisible on approach)? We focus on the effect of sampling effects and statistical uncertainty in the identification of extreme events and their predictability, and highlight the strong influence of scaling in space and time as an outstanding issue to be addressed by quantitative studies, experimentation and models.

Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

Science.gov (United States)

Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2017-12-01

Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

Predictive factors for early failure of transarterial embolization in blunt hepatic injury patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Y.-H.; Wu, C.-H.; Wang, L.-J.; Wong, Y.-C.; Chen, H.-W.; Wang, C.-J.; Lin, B.-C.; Hsu, Y.-P.

2014-01-01

Aim: To evaluate the early success of transarterial embolization (TAE) in patients with traumatic liver haemorrhage and to determine independent factors for its failure. Materials and methods: From January 2009 to December 2012, TAE was performed in 48 patients for traumatic liver haemorrhage. Their medical charts were reviewed for demographic information, pre-TAE vital signs and laboratory data, injury grade, type of contrast medium extravasation (CME) at CT, angiography findings, and early failure. “Early failure” was defined as the need for repeated TAE or a laparotomy for hepatic haemorrhage within 4 days after TAE. Variables were compared between the early success and early failure groups. Variables with univariate significance were also analysed using multivariate logistic regression for predictors of early failure. Results: Among 48 liver TAE cases, nine (18.8%) were early failures due to liver haemorrhage. Early failure was associated with injury grade (p = 0.039), major liver injury (grades 4 and 5; p = 0.007), multiple CMEs at angiography (p = 0.031), incomplete TAE (p = 0.002), and elevated heart rate (p = 0.026). Incomplete embolization (OR = 8; p = 0.042), and heart rate >110 beats/min (bpm; OR = 8; p = 0.05) were independent factors for early failure of TAE in the group with major liver injuries. Conclusion: Major hepatic injury is an important factor in early failure. Patients with a heart rate >110 bpm and incomplete embolization in the major injury group have an increased rate of early failure. The success rate of proximal TAE was comparable to that of the more time-consuming, superselective, distal TAE. - Highlights: • Early failure of TAE is associated with a higher grade of liver injury. • Incomplete embolization is more likely to suffer early failure of TAE. • A heart rate greater than 110 bpm is more likely to suffer early failure of TAE. • We recommend proximal embolization to prevent early failure of TAE

Forecasting giant, catastrophic slope collapse: lessons from Vajont, Northern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Petley, David N.

2003-08-01

Rapid, giant landslides, or sturzstroms, are among the most powerful natural hazards on Earth. They have minimum volumes of ˜10 6-10 7 m 3 and, normally preceded by prolonged intervals of accelerating creep, are produced by catastrophic and deep-seated slope collapse (loads ˜1-10 MPa). Conventional analyses attribute rapid collapse to unusual mechanisms, such as the vaporization of ground water during sliding. Here, catastrophic collapse is related to self-accelerating rock fracture, common in crustal rocks at loads ˜1-10 MPa and readily catalysed by circulating fluids. Fracturing produces an abrupt drop in resisting stress. Measured stress drops in crustal rock account for minimum sturzstrom volumes and rapid collapse accelerations. Fracturing also provides a physical basis for quantitatively forecasting catastrophic slope failure.

Catastrophes control problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Velichenko, V.V.

1994-01-01

The problem of catastrophe control is discussed. Catastrophe control aims to withdraw responsible engineering constructions out of the catastrophe. The mathematical framework of catastrophes control systems is constructed. It determines the principles of systems filling by the concrete physical contents and, simultaneously, permits to employ modern control methods for the synthesis of optimal withdrawal strategy for protected objects

Smoking increases the risk of early meniscus repair failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Blackwell, Ryan; Schmitt, Laura C; Flanigan, David C; Magnussen, Robert A

2016-05-01

The goal of this study is to determine whether patients who smoke cigarettes at the time of surgery are at significantly increased risk of early meniscus repair failure relative to non-smokers. Retrospective chart review identified 64 current smokers within a series of 444 consecutive patients who underwent meniscus repair during a 7 years period. Fifty-two of these 64 smokers were available for follow-up and were matched by age, sex, and ACL status with non-smokers from the same cohort. Records of these 104 patients with a total of 120 meniscus repairs were reviewed to identify meniscus repair failure (defined as repeat surgery on the index meniscus) during the median 13-month (range: 3-79 months) follow-up period. The smoking and non-smoking groups were similar in age, sex, ACL status, BMI, meniscus repair technique, and meniscus involved. Meniscus repair failure occurred in 19 of the 112 menisci in 104 patients, for an overall failure risk of 17 %. Of the 19 failures, 14 occurred in 79 repaired medial menisci (18 % failure risk) and 5 occurred in 33 repaired lateral menisci (15 % failure risk). Meniscus repair failure occurred in significantly more smokers (15 failures in 56 menisci in 52 patients -27 % failure risk) than non-smokers (4 failures in 56 menisci in 52 patients -7 % failure risk) (p = 0.0076). Smoking is associated with significantly increased risk of early meniscus repair failure as defined by the incidence of repeat surgery on the index meniscus. III.

Forensic Study of Early Failures with Unbonded Concrete Overlays

Science.gov (United States)

2017-11-01

A forensic investigation was conducted to identify failure mechanisms responsible for early failures of unbonded concrete overlays on selected projects in Ohio, including I-70 in Madison County, I-77 in Washington and Noble Counties, and I-90 in Lake...

Catastrophic optical bulk degradation in high-power single- and multi-mode InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers: part II

Science.gov (United States)

Sin, Yongkun; Ayvazian, Talin; Brodie, Miles; Lingley, Zachary

2018-03-01

High-power single-mode (SM) and multi-mode (MM) InGaAs-AlGaAs strained quantum well (QW) lasers are critical components for both terrestrial and space satellite communications systems. Since these lasers predominantly fail by catastrophic and sudden degradation due to catastrophic optical damage (COD), it is especially crucial for space satellite applications to investigate reliability, failure modes, precursor signatures of failure, and degradation mechanisms of these lasers. Our group reported a new failure mode in MM and SM InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers in 2009 and 2016, respectively. Our group also reported in 2017 that bulk failure due to catastrophic optical bulk damage (COBD) is the dominant failure mode of both SM and MM lasers that were subject to long-term life-tests. For the present study, we continued our physics of failure investigation by performing long-term life-tests followed by failure mode analysis (FMA) using nondestructive and destructive micro-analytical techniques. We performed long-term accelerated life-tests on state-of-the-art SM and MM InGaAs- AlGaAs strained QW lasers under ACC mode. Our life-tests have accumulated over 25,000 test hours for SM lasers and over 35,000 test hours for MM lasers. We first employed electron beam induced current (EBIC) technique to identify failure modes of degraded SM lasers by observing dark line defects. All the SM failures that we studied showed catastrophic and sudden degradation and all of these failures were bulk failures. Since degradation mechanisms responsible for COBD are still not well understood, we also employed other techniques including focused ion beam (FIB) and high-resolution TEM to further study dark line defects and dislocations in post-aged lasers. Keywor

Optimal design of earth-moving machine elements with cusp catastrophe theory application

Science.gov (United States)

Pitukhin, A. V.; Skobtsov, I. G.

2017-10-01

This paper deals with the optimal design problem solution for the operator of an earth-moving machine with a roll-over protective structure (ROPS) in terms of the catastrophe theory. A brief description of the catastrophe theory is presented, the cusp catastrophe is considered, control parameters are viewed as Gaussian stochastic quantities in the first part of the paper. The statement of optimal design problem is given in the second part of the paper. It includes the choice of the objective function and independent design variables, establishment of system limits. The objective function is determined as mean total cost that includes initial cost and cost of failure according to the cusp catastrophe probability. Algorithm of random search method with an interval reduction subject to side and functional constraints is given in the last part of the paper. The way of optimal design problem solution can be applied to choose rational ROPS parameters, which will increase safety and reduce production and exploitation expenses.

Trunnion Corrosion and Early Failure in Monolithic Metal-on-Polyethylene TMZF Femoral Components: A Case Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Walker

2016-09-01

Full Text Available We describe four patients who were treated with primary total hip arthroplasty (THA at two tertiary academic Australian teaching hospitals that experienced premature failure of head-neck trunnions through dissociation of the head-neck taper junction. This retrospective case series have similar clinical presentations and macroscopic pathology with severe head-neck taper junction loss of material, corrosion and early catastrophic failure. It is proposed that the accelerated wear is related to use of varus offset neck in a proprietary beta titanium alloy (Ti-12Mo-6Zr-2Fe  or TMZFÒ Stryker Osteonics, Mahwah NJ, USA TMZF femoral stem, longer head-neck combination in a relatively active, older, male patient population. In this limited case series presentation was on average 80 months (range 53-92 following index procedure. In three of the four patients, a prodromal period of groin or buttock pain was reported for between 1 week and 2 months prior to acute presentation. Significant metallosis and local tissue damage including gluteal muscle insufficiency was evident. Each stem revised was well fixed. An extended trochanteric osteotomy was required in two of the four cases for stem extraction. We recommend caution and further evaluation on the relationship between TMZF metal alloy and its longevity in higher demand patients with high neck offset, varus stem geometry and large CoCr bearing heads.

Statistical analysis of nuclear power plant pump failure rate variability: some preliminary results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martz, H.F.; Whiteman, D.E.

1984-02-01

In-Plant Reliability Data System (IPRDS) pump failure data on over 60 selected pumps in four nuclear power plants are statistically analyzed using the Failure Rate Analysis Code (FRAC). A major purpose of the analysis is to determine which environmental, system, and operating factors adequately explain the variability in the failure data. Catastrophic, degraded, and incipient failure severity categories are considered for both demand-related and time-dependent failures. For catastrophic demand-related pump failures, the variability is explained by the following factors listed in their order of importance: system application, pump driver, operating mode, reactor type, pump type, and unidentified plant-specific influences. Quantitative failure rate adjustments are provided for the effects of these factors. In the case of catastrophic time-dependent pump failures, the failure rate variability is explained by three factors: reactor type, pump driver, and unidentified plant-specific influences. Finally, point and confidence interval failure rate estimates are provided for each selected pump by considering the influential factors. Both types of estimates represent an improvement over the estimates computed exclusively from the data on each pump

The Financial Benefits of Various Catastrophic Failure Prevention Strategies in a Wind Farm: Two market studies (UK-Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Yürüşen, N. Y.; Tautz-Weinert, J.; Watson, S. J.; Melero, J. J.

2017-11-01

Operation of wind farms is driven by the overall aim of minimising costs while maximising energy sales. However, in certain circumstances investments are required to guarantee safe operation and survival of an asset. In this paper, we discuss the merits of various catastrophic failure prevention strategies in a Spanish wind farm. The wind farm operator was required to replace blades in two phases: temporary and final repair. We analyse the power performance of the turbine in the different states and investigate four scenarios with different timing of temporary and final repair during one year. The financial consequences of the scenarios are compared with a baseline by using a discounted cash flow analysis that considers the wholesale electricity market selling prices and interest rates. A comparison with the UK electricity market is conducted to highlight differences in the rate of return in the two countries.

On sociological catastrophe analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clausen, L.

1974-01-01

The present paper deals with standard terms of sociological catastrophe theory hitherto existing, collective behaviour during the catastrophe, and consequences for the empiric catastrophe sociology. (RW) [de

Lower early postnatal oxygen saturation target and risk of ductus arteriosus closure failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Inomata, Kei; Taniguchi, Shinji; Yonemoto, Hiroki; Inoue, Takeshi; Kawase, Akihiko; Kondo, Yuichi

2016-11-01

Early postnatal hyperoxia is a major risk factor for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in extremely premature infants. To reduce the occurrence of ROP, we adopted a lower early postnatal oxygen saturation (SpO 2 ) target range (85-92%) from April 2011. Lower SpO 2 target range, however, may lead to hypoxemia and an increase in the risk of ductus arteriosus (DA) closure failure. The aim of this study was therefore to determine whether a lower SpO 2 target range, during the early postnatal stage, increases the risk of DA closure failure. Infants born at closure failure in period 2 (21%) was significantly higher than that in period 1 (1%). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, the lower oxygen saturation target range was an independent risk factor for DA closure failure. Lower early postnatal oxygen saturation target range increases the risk of DA closure failure. © 2016 Japan Pediatric Society.

'The star called Wormwood': the cause and effect of the Chernobyl catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knorre, H.

1992-01-01

The explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power station in 1986 astounded the world. It was shocking not just because of the technical failure - unfortunately such things happen from time to time - but as a social and political failure. The Chernobyl catastrophe undermined and exposed the false, vicious and inhumane Soviet totalitarian system. The Chernobyl explosion initiated the disintegration of the corrupt Communist regime - a regime which had been deemed unshakeable in the USSR. (author)

Non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in racing Thoroughbreds at the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, T C; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Wright, J; Al-Alawneh, J I

2018-04-19

Reports of fractures in racehorses have predominantly focused on catastrophic injuries, and there is limited data identifying the location and incidence of fractures that did not result in a fatal outcome. To describe the nature and the incidence of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) over seven racing seasons. Retrospective cohort study. Data of fractures sustained in horses while racing and of race characteristics were extracted from the HKJC Veterinary Management Information System (VMIS) and Racing Information System (RIS) respectively. The fracture event was determined from the first clinical entry for each specific injury. The incidence rates of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures were calculated per 1000 racing starts for racetrack, age, racing season, sex and trainer. 179 first fracture events occurred in 64,807 racing starts. The incidence rate of non-catastrophic fractures was 2.2 per 1000 racing starts and of catastrophic fractures was 0.6 per 1000 racing starts. Fractures of the proximal sesamoid bones represented 55% of all catastrophic fractures while the most common non-catastrophic fractures involved the carpus and the first phalanx. Significant associations were detected between the incidence of non-catastrophic fractures and sex, trainer and racing season. The first fracture event was used to calculate the incidence rate in this study and may have resulted in underestimation of the true incidence rate of fractures in this population. However, given the low number of recorded fracture events compared to the size of the study population, this underestimation is likely to be small. There were 3.6 times as many non-catastrophic fractures as catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2011. Non-catastrophic fractures interfere with race training schedules and may predispose to catastrophic fracture. Future analytical studies on non-catastrophic

Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

2002-03-01

We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg

2002-01-01

We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

Dielectric Spectroscopic Detection of Early Failures in 3-D Integrated Circuits.

Science.gov (United States)

Obeng, Yaw; Okoro, C A; Ahn, Jung-Joon; You, Lin; Kopanski, Joseph J

The commercial introduction of three dimensional integrated circuits (3D-ICs) has been hindered by reliability challenges, such as stress related failures, resistivity changes, and unexplained early failures. In this paper, we discuss a new RF-based metrology, based on dielectric spectroscopy, for detecting and characterizing electrically active defects in fully integrated 3D devices. These defects are traceable to the chemistry of the insolation dielectrics used in the through silicon via (TSV) construction. We show that these defects may be responsible for some of the unexplained early reliability failures observed in TSV enabled 3D devices.

Seizing Catastrophes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kublitz, Anja

2013-01-01

to a distant past but takes place in the present. They use the term Nakba not only to refer to the catastrophe of 1948 but also to designate current catastrophes, such as the Danish Muhammad cartoons affair in 2005 and the Israeli invasion of Gaza in 2008. Through an analysis of the 60th commemoration...

Clinical indicators for success of misoprostol treatment after early pregnancy failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Robledo, C; Zhang, J; Troendle, J; Barnhart, K; Creinin, M D; Westhoff, C; Huang, X; Frederick, M

2007-10-01

To identify clinical indicators for success of misoprostol treatment after early pregnancy failure. A total of 473 women with early pregnancy failure received 800 microg of vaginal misoprostol on treatment day 1. At the follow-up visit on day 3, a second dose was given if expulsion was incomplete. On day 8, vacuum aspiration was offered if expulsion had not occurred. Ultrasonography was used as gold standard for success. A Classification and Regression Tree analysis was undertaken to derive two decision trees for the success of misoprostol treatment on study days 3 and 8. Heavy bleeding after the first dose and an open cervical os were identified as clinical indicators of treatment success on day 3. Treatment success occurred in 84% of women with either or both indicators. Reporting passage of tissue after a second misoprostol dose and old blood in the vagina were potential indicators of treatment success or failure on day 8. A woman with either of these indicators has a 65% chance of treatment success after the second dose. Conversely, a woman with neither indicator on day 8 has a 94% chance of treatment failure. Standard clinical findings may be useful as indicators for success or failure of medical management of early pregnancy failure in settings with limited or no access to ultrasonography. More research to identify even better indicators is warranted.

Climate catastrophes

Science.gov (United States)

Budyko, Mikhail

1999-05-01

Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

Failure rate analysis using GLIMMIX

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, L.M.; Hemphill, G.M.; Martz, H.F.

1998-01-01

This paper illustrates use of a recently developed SAS macro, GLIMMIX, for implementing an analysis suggested by Wolfinger and O'Connell (1993) in modeling failure count data with random as well as fixed factor effects. Interest in this software tool arose from consideration of modernizing the Failure Rate Analysis Code (FRAC), developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the early 1980's by Martz, Beckman and McInteer (1982). FRAC is a FORTRAN program developed to analyze Poisson distributed failure count data as a log-linear model, possibly with random as well as fixed effects. These statistical modeling assumptions are a special case of generalized linear mixed models, identified as GLMM in the current statistics literature. In the nearly 15 years since FRAC was developed, there have been considerable advances in computing capability, statistical methodology and available statistical software tools allowing worthwhile consideration of the tasks of modernizing FRAC. In this paper, the approaches to GLMM estimation implemented in GLIMMIX and in FRAC are described and a comparison of results for the two approaches is made with data on catastrophic time-dependent pump failures from a report by Martz and Whiteman (1984). Additionally, statistical and graphical model diagnostics are suggested and illustrated with the GLIMMIX analysis results

Nonlinear physics: Catastrophe, chaos and complexity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arecchi, F.T.

1992-01-01

Currently in the world of physics, there is open debate on the role of the three C's - catastrophe, chaos and complexity. Seen as new ideas or paradigms, incapable of being harmonized within the realm of traditional physics, these terms seem to be creating turmoil in the classical physics establishment whose foundations date back to the early seventeenth century. This paper first defines catastrophe, chaos and complexity and shows how these terms are all connected to nonlinear dynamics and how they have long since been present within scientific treatises. It also evidences the relationship of the three C's with the concept of organization, inappropriately called self-organization, and with recognition and decisional strategies of cognitive systems. Relevant to natural science, the development of these considerations is necessitating the re-examination of the role and capabilities of human knowledge and a return to inter-disciplinary scientific-philosophical debate

Early short-term management of control-actuator failures in a linear dynamic system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben-Haim, Y.

1989-01-01

Early short-term management of malfunction attempts to maintain system stability during the early development stages of a failure. This is achieved in two stages. First, the failure is partially diagnosed by comparing observed system behavior against the performance expected for each of the selected set of hypothesized malfunctions. Second, the normal controller is replaced by a compensatory controller whose aim is to maintain system stability while compensating for the failure. Malfunctions involving control actuators are studied here. The aim of this study is to develop a technique for choosing the set of hypothesized failures and compensatory controllers which assure that the state of the system remains within specified bounds for a given duration after initiation of failure, regardless of the precise temporal development of the failure

Understanding of failure and failure of understanding: Aspects of failure in the Old Testament

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James Alfred Loader

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Taking its cue from Rudolf Bultmann’s famous verdict that the Old Testament is a ‘failure’ (‘Scheitern’, the article reviews three influential negative readings of Israel’s history as told in the Former Prophets. It is then argued that awareness of the theological problem posed by Israel’s history enabled the redactors of both the former and the latter prophetic collections to deal with the element of human failure in a way that facilitated Israel’s retaining of her faith. Next, the sapiential insight in failing human discernment is drawn into the equation. Failure of human action is here interrelated with failure to comprehend God’s order. By virtue of its incorporation into the totality of the Tanak, this insight became a constructive part of Israel’s faith. Therefore the concept of failure comprises more than coming to terms with Israel’s catastrophic history. Since it is encoded in Israel’s Holy Scripture, ‘failure’ is a major concept within the Old Testament internally and is therefore not suitable as a verdict over the Old Testament by an external value judgement. ‘Failure’ thus becomes a key hermeneutical category, not merely so that the Old Testament could become a ‘promise’ for the New Testament to fulfil, but as a manifestation of limits in human religion and thought. Far from undermining self-esteem, constructive use of the concept of her own failure sustained Israel in her catastrophe and should be adopted by Christianity – not least in South Africa, where the biblical message was often misappropriated to bolster apartheid.

Knowledge representation methods for early failure detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scherer, K.P.; Stiller, P.

1990-01-01

To supervise technical processes like nuclear power plants, it is very important to detect failure modes in an early stage. In the nuclear research center at Karlsruhe an expert system is developed, embedded in a computer network of autonomous computers, which are used for intelligent prepocessing. Events, process data and actual parameter values are stored in slots of special frames in the knowledge base of the expert system. Both rule based and fact based knowledge representations are employed to generate cause consequence chains of failure states. By on-line surveillance of the reactor process, the slots of the frames are dynamically actualized. Immediately after the evaluation, the inference engine starts in the special domain experts (triggered by metarules from a manager) and detects the correspondend failures or anomaly state. Matching the members of the chain and regarding a catalogue of instructions and messages, what is to do by the operator, future failure states can be estimated and propagation can be prohibited. That means qualitative failure prediction based on cause consequence in the static part of the knowledge base. Also, a time series of physical data can be used to predict on analytical way future process state and to continue such a theoretical propagation with matching the cause consuquence chain

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (Ronald Asherson syndrome) and obstetric pathology.

Science.gov (United States)

Makatsariya, Alexander D; Khizroeva, Jamilya; Bitsadze, Viktoriya O

2018-05-24

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is an uncommon, often fatal, variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) that results in a widespread coagulopathy and high titres of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) and affects predominantly small vessels supplying organs with the development of multiorgan failure. It remains unclear why some patients develop the typical clinical picture of APS (thrombosis of large vessels), whereas others show the development of progressive microthrombosis, which the authors called "thrombotic storm" and multiple organ failure, that is, CAPS. Since 2001-2016, we discovered 17 patients with CAPS development. CAPS is life-threatening condition, but optimal treatment for CAPS is not developed yet and the mortality rate is as high as 30%-40%.

Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games

Science.gov (United States)

Verendel, Vilhelm; Johansson, Daniel J. A.; Lindgren, Kristian

2016-03-01

Two decades of international negotiations show that agreeing on emission levels for climate change mitigation is a hard challenge. However, if early warning signals were to show an upcoming tipping point with catastrophic damage, theory and experiments suggest this could simplify collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the actual threshold, no country would have a free-ride incentive to increase emissions over the tipping point, but it remains for countries to negotiate their emission levels to reach these agreements. We model agents bargaining for emission levels using strategic reasoning to predict emission bids by others and ask how this affects the possibility of reaching agreements that avoid catastrophic damage. It is known that policy elites often use a higher degree of strategic reasoning, and in our model this increases the risk for climate catastrophe. Moreover, some forms of higher strategic reasoning make agreements to reduce greenhouse gases unstable. We use empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning when simulating the model.

Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Bilateral Central Retinal Artery Occlusions

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Steven S. Saraf

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A previously healthy 22-year-old African American woman presented with bilateral vision loss associated with headache. Her ocular examination was significant for bilateral retinal arterial “boxcarring,” retinal whitening, retinal hemorrhages, and cherry red spots. She was diagnosed with bilateral central retinal artery occlusions and was hospitalized due to concomitant diagnosis of stroke and hypercoagulable state. She was also found to be in heart failure and kidney failure. Rheumatology was consulted and she was diagnosed with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in association with systemic lupus erythematosus. Approximately 7 months after presentation, the patient’s vision improved and remained stable at 20/200 and 20/80.

The Ongoing Catastrophe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kublitz, Anja

2015-01-01

as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...

Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

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David W. Grant

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

Intestinal malrotation and catastrophic volvulus in infancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Henry Chong; Pickard, Sarah S; Sridhar, Sunita; Dutta, Sanjeev

2012-07-01

Intestinal malrotation in the newborn is usually diagnosed after signs of intestinal obstruction, such as bilious emesis, and corrected with the Ladd procedure. The objective of this report is to describe the presentation of severe cases of midgut volvulus presenting in infancy, and to discuss the characteristics of these cases. We performed a 7-year review at our institution and present two cases of catastrophic midgut volvulus presenting in the post-neonatal period, ending in death soon after the onset of symptoms. These two patients also had significant laboratory abnormalities compared to patients with more typical presentations resulting in favorable outcomes. Although most cases of intestinal malrotation in infancy can be treated successfully, in some circumstances, patients' symptoms may not be detected early enough for effective treatment, and therefore may result in catastrophic midgut volvulus and death. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fatigue life analysis of unexpected failure in a lamellar TiAl alloy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chan, K.S.

1999-07-01

Unexpected catastrophic failure occurred in specimens of a lamellar TiAl alloy tested by axial fatigue. The failure initiated at locations away from artificial defects introduced to the specimens as crack starters. Fractographic examination of the fracture surface revealed the presence of featureless, low-energy facets that suggested the catastrophic crack may have initiated in one or more large grains that cleaved on a cleavage plane or an interface. A crack growth analysis of fatigue life of the test specimens suggested that the catastrophic crack propagated at stress intensity levels below the large crack threshold. Furthermore, the catastrophic crack propagated at rates that were higher than the average rates exhibited by small cracks, as well as by the large crack under equivalent stress intensity ranges. Because of this, the conventional life prediction approach based on the large crack growth data grossly overpredicted the fatigue life.

A unified approach of catastrophic events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Nikolopoulos

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

Failure mechanisms in high temperature gas cooled reactor fuel particles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soo, P.; Uneberg, G.; Sabatini, R.L.; Schweitzer, D.G.

1979-01-01

BISO coated UO 2 and ThO 2 particles were heated to high temperatures to determine failure mechanisms during hypothetical loss of coolant scenarios. Rapid failure begins when the oxides are reduced to liquid carbides. Several failure mechanisms are applicable, ranging from hole and crack formation in the coatings to catastrophic particle disintegration

Phenomenological uncertainty analysis of early containment failure at severe accident of nuclear power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Su Won

2011-02-15

The severe accident has inherently significant uncertainty due to wide range of conditions and performing experiments, validation and practical application are extremely difficult because of its high temperature and pressure. Although internal and external researches were put into practice, the reference used in Korean nuclear plants were foreign data of 1980s and safety analysis as the probabilistic safety assessment has not applied the newest methodology. Also, it is applied to containment pressure formed into point value as results of thermal hydraulic analysis to identify the probability of containment failure in level 2 PSA. In this paper, the uncertainty analysis methods for phenomena of severe accident influencing early containment failure were developed, the uncertainty analysis that apply Korean nuclear plants using the MELCOR code was performed and it is a point of view to present the distribution of containment pressure as a result of uncertainty analysis. Because early containment failure is important factor of Large Early Release Frequency(LERF) that is used as representative criteria of decision-making in nuclear power plants, it was selected in this paper among various modes of containment failure. Important phenomena of early containment failure at severe accident based on previous researches were comprehended and methodology of 7th steps to evaluate uncertainty was developed. The MELCOR input for analysis of the severe accident reflected natural circulation flow was developed and the accident scenario for station black out that was representative initial event of early containment failure was determined. By reviewing the internal model and correlation for MELCOR model relevant important phenomena of early containment failure, the uncertainty factors which could affect on the uncertainty were founded and the major factors were finally identified through the sensitivity analysis. In order to determine total number of MELCOR calculations which can

Thermal radiation from fireballs on failure of liquefied petroleum gas storage vessels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roberts, T.; Hawksworth, S. [Health and Safety Executive, Health and Safety Lab., Buxton (United Kingdom); Gosse, A. [BG Technology, Loughborough (United Kingdom)

2000-05-01

Fire impingement on vessels containing pressure liquefied gases can result in catastrophic failure of the vessel leading to a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE). If the gas is flammable, this can result in the formation of very large fireballs. In safety assessments where catastrophic vessel failure is identified as a real possibility, the risk of death from a fireball tends to be higher than that from missiles or blast. Since many of the physical processes which take place in a BLEVE are scale dependent, a series of tests were undertaken at a large scale where 2 tonne propane vessels were taken to failure in a jet fire and the vessel response, mode of failure and consequence of failure characterised. The measurements taken by the Health and Safety Laboratory and BG Technology relating to fireball formation are described. (Author)

Oxidized zirconium on ceramic; Catastrophic coupling.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozden, V E; Saglam, N; Dikmen, G; Tozun, I R

2017-02-01

Oxidized zirconium (Oxinium™; Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) articulated with polyethylene in total hip arthroplasty (THA) appeared to have the potential to reduce wear dramatically. The thermally oxidized metal zirconium surface is transformed into ceramic-like hard surface that is resistant to abrasion. The exposure of soft zirconium metal under hard coverage surface after the damage of oxidized zirconium femoral head has been described. It occurred following joint dislocation or in situ succeeding disengagement of polyethylene liner. We reported three cases of misuse of Oxinium™ (Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) heads. These three cases resulted in catastrophic in situ wear and inevitable failure although there was no advice, indication or recommendation for this use from the manufacturer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Failure to thrive among neonates, associated factors and early neonatal outcome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, Erica; Manji, Karim; Mpembeni Rose

2005-01-01

Failure to thrive or growth failure is an important feature of problems prevalent in the neonate. It remains one of the greatest challenges for the practicing pediatrician and it is a common pathway or outcome of several different underlaying infant and maternal conditions. To determine the prevalence, possible causes and early neonatal outcome of failure to thrive among young infants admitted to the Neonatal Unit in this hospital. A cross-sectional descriptive hospital based study, was carried for 10 months from April 2001 to January 2002 at the Neonatal Unit at Muhimbili National Hospital. (author)

Safety, danger and catastrophe inevitability in operation of safety-critical software algorithms: a possible new look at software safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Povyakalo, A.A.

2000-01-01

The paper provides basic definitions and describes the basic procedure of the Formal Qualitative Safety Analysis (FQSA) of critical software algorithms. The procedure is described by C-based pseudo-code. It uses the notion of weakest precondition and representation of a given critical algorithm by a Gurevich's Abstract State Mashine (GASM). For a given GASM and a given Catastrophe Condition the procedure results in a Catastrophe Inevitability Condition (it means that every sequence of algorithm steps lead to a catastrophe early or late), Danger Condition (it means that next step may lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable, but a catastrophe may be prevented yet), Safety Condition (it means that a next step can not lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable). The using of proposed procedure is illustrated by a simplest test example of algorithm. The FQSA provides a logical basis for PSA of critical algorithm. (author)

Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Cairns, Jr.

2004-08-01

Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Burns LC

2015-01-01

predictor of chronic pain persisting ≥3 months following TKA in five of the studies assessed. Limitations of studies included lack of large-scale data, absence of standardized pain measurements, inadequate multivariate adjustment, such as failure to control for analgesic use and other relevant covariates, and failure to report non-significant parameter estimates. Conclusion: This study provides moderate-level evidence for pain catastrophizing as an independent predictor of chronic pain post-TKA. Directions for future research include larger, well-controlled studies with standard pain outcomes, identification of clinically-relevant catastrophizing cut-offs that predict pain outcomes, investigation of other psychosocial risk factors, and assessment of interventions aimed to reduce pain catastrophizing on chronic pain outcomes following TKA surgery. Keywords: pain catastrophizing, total knee arthroplasty, total knee replacement, knee arthroplasty, risk factors, chronic pain

Infraclavicular versus axillary nerve catheters: A retrospective comparison of early catheter failure rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Quast, Michaela B; Sviggum, Hans P; Hanson, Andrew C; Stoike, David E; Martin, David P; Niesen, Adam D

2018-05-01

Continuous brachial plexus catheters are often used to decrease pain following elbow surgery. This investigation aimed to assess the rate of early failure of infraclavicular (IC) and axillary (AX) nerve catheters following elbow surgery. Retrospective study. Postoperative recovery unit and inpatient hospital floor. 328 patients who received IC or AX nerve catheters and underwent elbow surgery were identified by retrospective query of our institution's database. Data collected included unplanned catheter dislodgement, catheter replacement rate, postoperative pain scores, and opioid administration on postoperative day 1. Catheter failure was defined as unplanned dislodging within 24 h of placement or requirement for catheter replacement and evaluated using a covariate adjusted model. 119 IC catheters and 209 AX catheters were evaluated. There were 8 (6.7%) failed IC catheters versus 13 (6.2%) failed AX catheters. After adjusting for age, BMI, and gender there was no difference in catheter failure rate between IC and AX nerve catheters (p = 0.449). These results suggest that IC and AX nerve catheters do not differ in the rate of early catheter failure, despite differences in anatomic location and catheter placement techniques. Both techniques provided effective postoperative analgesia with median pain scores < 3/10 for patients following elbow surgery. Reasons other than rate of early catheter failure should dictate which approach is performed. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Radiation Failures in Intel 14nm Microprocessors

Science.gov (United States)

Bossev, Dobrin P.; Duncan, Adam R.; Gadlage, Matthew J.; Roach, Austin H.; Kay, Matthew J.; Szabo, Carl; Berger, Tammy J.; York, Darin A.; Williams, Aaron; LaBel, K.;

Core Competencies and the Prevention of School Failure and Early School Leaving

Science.gov (United States)

Bradshaw, Catherine P.; O'Brennan, Lindsey M.; McNeely, Clea A.

2008-01-01

There is an increasing awareness that school failure and early school leaving are processes, rather than discrete events, that often co-occur and can have lasting negative effects on children's development. Most of the literature has focused on risk factors for failure and dropout rather than on the promotion of competencies that can increase…

Quantum catastrophe of slow light

OpenAIRE

Leonhardt, Ulf

2001-01-01

Catastrophes are at the heart of many fascinating optical phenomena. The rainbow, for example, is a ray catastrophe where light rays become infinitely intense. The wave nature of light resolves the infinities of ray catastrophes while drawing delicate interference patterns such as the supernumerary arcs of the rainbow. Black holes cause wave singularities. Waves oscillate with infinitely small wave lengths at the event horizon where time stands still. The quantum nature of light avoids this h...

Chronicity of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Deficiency, Part 2: Radiographic Predictors of Early Graft Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Yoshinari; Kita, Keisuke; Takao, Rikio; Amano, Hiroshi; Uchida, Ryohei; Shiozaki, Yoshiki; Yonetani, Yasukazu; Kinugasa, Kazutaka; Mae, Tatsuo; Horibe, Shuji

2018-02-01

Accumulating evidence suggests that long-term anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) deficiency can give rise to an abnormal tibiofemoral relationship and subsequent intra-articular lesions. However, the effects of chronic ACL deficiency (ACLD) on early graft failure after anatomic reconstruction remain unclear. We hypothesized that patients with long-term ACLD lasting more than 5 years would have a greater rate of early graft failure due to insufficient intraoperative reduction of the tibia and that the preoperative and immediately postoperative abnormal tibiofemoral relationship in the sagittal plane, such as anterior tibial subluxation (ATS), would correlate with the graft status on postoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. A total of 358 patients who had undergone anatomic ACL reconstruction with hamstring grafts were divided into 5 groups based on chronicity of ACLD: (1) 0 to 6 months, (2) 6 months to 1 year, (3) 1 to 2 years, (4) 2 to 5 years, and (5) longer than 5 years. Preoperatively and immediately postoperatively, lateral radiographs in full extension were taken in all patients to evaluate the tibiofemoral relationship, specifically with regard to ATS, space for the ACL (sACL), and extension angle. All patients underwent MRI at 6 months to reveal graft status. Groups with a high rate of graft failure were further analyzed to compare demographic and radiographic factors between the intact and failure subgroups, followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify predisposing factors. Graft failure without trauma was observed in 4 (1.8%), 0 (0%), 1 (3.7%), 3 (9.7%), and 8 patients (17.7%) in groups 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. Of the 76 patients in groups 4 and 5, significant differences were noted between the failure and intact subgroups in preoperative ATS (4.9 vs 2.4 mm, respectively; P failure (odds ratio, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.37-7.46). Early graft failure at 6 months increased in patients with ACLD

Catastrophizing in Patients with Burning Mouth Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana ANDABAK ROGULJ

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Burning mouth syndrome (BMS is an idiopathic painful condition which manifests with burning sensations in the oral cavity in patients with clinically normal oral mucosa and without any local and/or systemic causative factor. Catastrophizing is defined as an exaggerated negative orientation toward pain stimuli and pain experience. The aim of this study was to examine the association between catastrophizing and clinical parameters of BMS, and to examine the association between catastrophizing and the quality of life in patients with BMS. Materials and methods: Anonymous questionnaire consisting of 3 parts (demographic and clinical data with 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS, Croatian version of the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14 scale and Croatian version of the Pain Catastrophizing scale (PC, was distributed to 30 patients diagnosed with BMS. Results: A higher level of catastrophizing was clinically significant in 30% of the patients. Total catastrophizing score and all three subcomponents of catastrophizing significantly correlated with the intensity of symptoms, but did not correlate with the duration of symptoms. Gender and previous treatment did not affect the catastrophizing. Conclusion: Obtaining the information about catastrophizing could help a clinician to identify patients with negative behavioural patterns. Additional psychological intervention in these individuals could reduce/eliminate negative cognitive factors and improve coping with chronic painful condition such as BMS.

Difficult to predict early failure after major lower-extremity amputations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Morten Tange; Holm, Gitte; Gebuhr, Peter

2015-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The successful outcome of a major amputation depends on several factors, including stump wound healing. The purpose of this study was to examine the criteria upon which the index amputation was based and to identify factors associated with early amputation failure after major non......-traumatic lower-extremity amputation. METHODS: We studied a consecutive one-year series of 36 men and 34 women with a median (25-75% quartiles) age of 72 (63-83) years who were treated in an acute orthopaedic ward; 44 below-knee and 26 above-knee amputees of whom 47 had an American Society of Anesthesiologists...... rating above two. Patient characteristics and other factors potentially influencing early amputation failure within 30 days were evaluated. RESULTS: Eleven patients died (16%) and 11 (16%) had a re-amputation at a higher level, whereas four (6%) had a major revision at the same level within 30 days...

Risk factors for and impact of respiratory failure on mortality in the early phase of acute pancreatitis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dombernowsky, Tilde; Kristensen, Marlene Østermark; Rysgaard, Sisse

2016-01-01

: Retrospective cohort study including 359 patients admitted with acute pancreatitis. Information was gathered from electronic patient records. We defined respiratory failure based on the modified Marshall scoring system in the revised Atlanta criteria. Predictors of respiratory failure were evaluated......, or pneumonia may develop respiratory failure, suggests that acute lung injury, possibly associated with systemic inflammation, may be important.......BACKGROUND: The incidence of respiratory failure and other respiratory complications in the early phase of acute pancreatitis (AP) is not well investigated. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of respiratory failure, and its impact on mortality in the early phase AP. METHODS...

Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seth D. Baum

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Firat, Elke; Gaedicke, Simone; Tsurumi, Chizuko; Esser, Norbert; Weyerbrock, Astrid; Niedermann, Gabriele

2011-01-01

Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR). Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs) and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF) and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2). Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest the importance of delayed apoptosis, associated mitotic catastrophe, and cellular proliferation for γIR-induced death of

Basic concepts in metal work failure after metastatic spine tumour surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Naresh; Patel, Ravish; Wadhwa, Anshuja Charvi; Kumar, Aravind; Milavec, Helena Maria; Sonawane, Dhiraj; Singh, Gurpal; Benneker, Lorin Michael

2018-04-01

The development of spinal implants marks a watershed in the evolution of metastatic spine tumour surgery (MSTS), which has evolved from standalone decompressive laminectomy to instrumented stabilization and decompression with reconstruction when necessary. Fusion may not be feasible after MSTS due to poor quality of graft host bed along with adjunct chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy postoperatively. With an increase in the survival of patients with spinal tumours, there is a probability of an increase in the rate of implant failure. This review aims to help establish a clear understanding of implants/constructs used in MSTS and to highlight the fundamental biomechanics of implant/construct failures. Published literature on implant failure after spine surgery and MSTS has been reviewed. The evolution of spinal implants and their role in MSTS has been briefly described. The review defines implant/construct failures using radiological parameters that are practical, feasible, and derived from historical descriptions. We have discussed common modes of implant/construct failure after MSTS to allow further understanding, interception, and prevention of catastrophic failure. Implant failure rates in MSTS are in the range of 2-8%. Variability in patterns of failure has been observed based on anatomical region and the type of constructs used. Patients with construct/implant failures may or may not be symptomatic and present either as early (failures (> 3months). It has been noted that not all the implant failures after MSTS result in revisions. Based on the observed radiological criteria and clinical presentations, we have proposed a clinico-radiological classification for implant/construct failure after MSTS.

Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leonhardt, Ulf

2002-01-01

In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light

Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

Science.gov (United States)

Leonhardt, Ulf

2002-04-01

In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

Theory of a Slow-Light Catastrophe

OpenAIRE

Leonhardt, Ulf

2001-01-01

In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. The paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, arXiv:physics/0111058, Nature (in press)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valeca, Serban Constantin

2002-01-01

The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

Clavicular bone tunnel malposition leads to early failures in coracoclavicular ligament reconstructions.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Jay B; Shaha, James S; Rowles, Douglas J; Bottoni, Craig R; Shaha, Steven H; Tokish, John M

2013-01-01

Modern techniques for the treatment of acromioclavicular (AC) joint dislocations have largely centered on free tendon graft reconstructions. Recent biomechanical studies have demonstrated that an anatomic reconstruction with 2 clavicular bone tunnels more closely matches the properties of native coracoclavicular (CC) ligaments than more traditional techniques. No study has analyzed tunnel position in regard to risk of early failure. To evaluate the effect of clavicular tunnel position in CC ligament reconstruction as a risk of early failure. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. A retrospective review was performed of a consecutive series of CC ligament reconstructions performed with 2 clavicular bone tunnels and a free tendon graft. The population was largely a young, active-duty military group of patients. Radiographs were analyzed for the maintenance of reduction and location of clavicular bone tunnels using a picture archiving and communication system. The distance from the lateral border of the clavicle to the center of each bone tunnel was divided by the total clavicular length to establish a ratio. Medical records were reviewed for operative details and functional outcome. Failure was defined as loss of intraoperative reduction. The overall failure rate was 28.6% (8/28) at an average of 7.4 weeks postoperatively. Comparison of bone tunnel position showed that medialized bone tunnels were a significant predictor for early loss of reduction for the conoid (a ratio of 0.292 vs 0.248; P = .012) and trapezoid bone tunnels (a ratio of 0.171 vs 0.128; P = .004); this correlated to an average of 7 to 9 mm more medial in the reconstructions that failed. Reconstructions performed with a conoid ratio of ≥0.30 were significantly more likely to fail (5/5, 100%) than were those performed lateral to a ratio of 0.30 (3/23, 13.0%) (P < .01). There were no failures when the conoid ratio was <0.25 (0/10, 0%). Conoid tunnel placement was also statistically significant for

Topographic precursors and geological structures of deep-seated catastrophic landslides caused by Typhoon Talas

Science.gov (United States)

Chigira, Masahiro; Tsou, Ching-Ying; Matsushi, Yuki; Hiraishi, Narumi; Matsuzawa, Makoto

2013-11-01

Typhoon Talas crossed the Japanese Islands between 2 and 5 September 2011, causing more than 70 deep-seated catastrophic landslides in a Jurassic to Paleogene-lower Miocene accretion complex. Detailed examination of the topographic features of 10 large landslides before the event, recorded on 1-m DEMs based on airborne laser scanner surveys, showed that all landslides had small scarps near their future crowns prior to the slide, and one landslide had linear depressions along its future crown as precursor topographic features. These scarps and linear depressions were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 5% to 21%. Careful examination of aerial photographs from another four large landslides, for which no high-resolution DEMs were available, suggested that they also developed scarps at their heads beforehand. Twelve of the 14 landslides we surveyed in the field had sliding surfaces with wedge-shaped discontinuities that consisted of faults and bedding, suggesting that the buildup of pore pressure occurs readily on wedge-shaped discontinuities in a gravitationally deformed rock body. Most of the faults were undulatory and were probably thrust faults that formed during accretion. Other types of gravitational deformation were also active; e.g., flexural toppling and buckling were observed to have preceded one landslide.

How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

Topographic stress and catastrophic collapse of volcanic islands

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, S.; Perron, J. T.; Martel, S. J.

2017-12-01

Flank collapse of volcanic islands can devastate coastal environments and potentially induce tsunamis. Previous studies have suggested that factors such as volcanic eruption events, gravitational spreading, the reduction of material strength due to hydrothermal alteration, steep coastal cliffs, or sea level change may contribute to slope instability and induce catastrophic collapse of volcanic flanks. In this study, we examine the potential influence of three-dimensional topographic stress perturbations on flank collapses of volcanic islands. Using a three-dimensional boundary element model, we calculate subsurface stress fields for the Canary and Hawaiian islands to compare the effects of stratovolcano and shield volcano shapes on topographic stresses. Our model accounts for gravitational stresses from the actual shapes of volcanic islands, ambient stress in the underlying plate, and the influence of pore water pressure. We quantify the potential for slope failure of volcanic flanks using a combined model of three-dimensional topographic stress and slope stability. The results of our analysis show that subsurface stress fields vary substantially depending on the shapes of volcanoes, and can influence the size and spatial distribution of flank failures.

Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

1996-12-31

The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

Health Visitor's Role in Prediction of Early Childhood Injuries and Failure to Thrive.

Science.gov (United States)

Dean, Janet G.; And Others

1978-01-01

Discusses the role of the health visitor in the prediction of early childhood injuries, abuse, and failure to thrive--based on a three-year study of the relationship between early maternal attitudes and subsequent child health. Journal availability: Pergamon Press Ltd., Headington Hill Hall, Oxford, OX3 OBW England. (DLS)

Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berry, M V; Howls, C J

2010-01-01

Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X 9 diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

The 27 May 1937 catastrophic flow failure of gold tailings at Tlalpujahua, Michoacan, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Macias, J. L.; Corona-Chavez, P.; Sanchez-Nunez, J. M.; Martinez-Medina, M.; Garduno-Monroy, V. H.; Capra, L.; Garcia-Tenorio, F.; Cisneros-Maximo, G.

2015-05-01

On 27 May 1937, after one week of sustained heavy rainfall, a voluminous flood caused the death of at least 300 people and the destruction of the historic El Carmen church and several neighborhoods in the mining region of Tlalpujahua, Michoacan, central Mexico. This destructive flood was triggered by the breaching of the impoundment of the Los Cedros tailings and the sudden release of circa 16 Mt of water-saturated waste materials. The muddy silty flood, moving at estimated speeds of 20-25 m s-1, was channelized along the Dos Estrellas and Tlalpujahua drainages and devastated everything along its flow path. After advancing 2.5 km downstream, the flood slammed into El Carmen church and surrounding houses at estimated speeds of ~ 7 m s-1, destroying many construction walls and covering the church floor with ~ 2 m of mud and debris. Revision of eyewitness accounts and newspaper articles, together with analysis of archived photographic materials, indicated that the flood consisted of three muddy pulses. Stratigraphic relations and granulometric data for selected proximal and distal samples show that the flood behaved as a hyperconcentrated flow along most of its trajectory. A total volume of the Lamas flood deposit was estimated as 1.5 x 106 m3. The physically based bidimensional (2-D) hydraulic model FLO-2D was implemented to reproduce the breached flow (0.5 sediment concentration) with a maximum flow discharge of 8000 m3 s-1 for a total outflow volume (sediment + water) of 2.5 x 106 m3, similar to the calculations obtained using field measurements. Even though premonitory signs of possible impoundment failure were reported days before the flood, and people living downstream were alerted, authorities ordered no evacuations or other mitigative actions. The catastrophic flood at Tlalpujahua provides a well-documented, though tragic, example of impoundment breaching of a tailings dam caused by the combined effects of intense rainfall, dam weakness, and inadequate

Coronal Flux Rope Catastrophe Associated With Internal Energy Release

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Bin; Hu, Youqiu; Wang, Yuming; Zhang, Quanhao; Liu, Rui; Gou, Tingyu; Shen, Chenglong

2018-04-01

Magnetic energy during the catastrophe was predominantly studied by the previous catastrophe works since it is believed to be the main energy supplier for the solar eruptions. However, the contribution of other types of energies during the catastrophe cannot be neglected. This paper studies the catastrophe of the coronal flux rope system in the solar wind background, with emphasis on the transformation of different types of energies during the catastrophe. The coronal flux rope is characterized by its axial and poloidal magnetic fluxes and total mass. It is shown that a catastrophe can be triggered by not only an increase but also a decrease of the axial magnetic flux. Moreover, the internal energy of the rope is found to be released during the catastrophe so as to provide energy for the upward eruption of the flux rope. As far as the magnetic energy is concerned, it provides only part of the energy release, or even increases during the catastrophe, so the internal energy may act as the dominant or even the unique energy supplier during the catastrophe.

Topographic precursors and geological structures of deep-seated catastrophic landslides caused by typhoon Talas, determined from the analysis of high-resolution DEMs

Science.gov (United States)

Chigira, Masahiro; Tsou, Ching-Ying; Matsushi, Yuki

2013-04-01

Typhoon Talas crossed the Japanese Islands between 2 and 5 September 2011, causing more than 70 deep-seated catastrophic landslides in a Jurassic to Paleogene-Early Miocene accretion complex. Detailed examination of the topographic features of 10 large landslides before the event, recorded on DEMs with a resolution of 1 m (based on airborne laser scanner surveys), showed that all of the landslides had small scarplets near their future crowns prior to the slide, and one landslide had linear depressions along its future crown as precursor topographic features. These scarplets and linear depressions were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Strains, defined by the ratio of the length of a scarplet to the length of the whole slope (as measured along the slope line), ranged from 5% to 21%, and are the first reliable numerical data relating to the topographic precursor features of large and catastrophic landslides. Careful examination of aerial photographs from another four large landslides, for which no high-resolution DEMs were available, suggested that they also developed scarplets at their heads beforehand, which are not precisely quantified. Twelve of the 14 landslides we surveyed in the field had sliding surfaces with wedge-shaped discontinuities that consisted of faults, shear surfaces that formed during accretion, and bedding, suggesting that the buildup of pore pressure occurs readily in a gravitationally deformed rock body containing wedge-shaped discontinuities. Other types of gravitational deformation were also active; e.g., flexural toppling and buckling were each observed to have preceded one landslide.

Energy catastrophes and energy consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, G.

1991-01-01

The possibility of energy catastrophes in the production of energy serves to make estimation of the true social costs of energy production difficult. As a result, there is a distinct possibility that the private marginal cost curve of energy producers lies to the left or right of the true cost curve. If so, social welfare will not be maximized, and underconsumption or overconsumption of fuels will exist. The occurrence of energy catastrophes and observance of the market reaction to these occurrences indicates that overconsumption of energy has been the case in the past. Postulations as to market reactions to further energy catastrophes lead to the presumption that energy consumption levels remain above those that are socially optimal

Failure analysis on a ruptured petrochemical pipe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harun, Mohd [Industrial Technology Division, Malaysian Nuclear Agency, Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation Malaysia, Bangi, Kajang, Selangor (Malaysia); Shamsudin, Shaiful Rizam; Kamardin, A. [Univ. Malaysia Perlis, Jejawi, Arau (Malaysia). School of Materials Engineering

2010-08-15

The failure took place on a welded elbow pipe which exhibited a catastrophic transverse rupture. The failure was located on the welding HAZ region, parallel to the welding path. Branching cracks were detected at the edge of the rupture area. Deposits of corrosion products were also spotted. The optical microscope analysis showed the presence of transgranular failures which were related to the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) and were predominantly caused by the welding residual stress. The significant difference in hardness between the welded area and the pipe confirmed the findings. Moreover, the failure was also caused by the low Mo content in the stainless steel pipe which was detected by means of spark emission spectrometer. (orig.)

Percutaneous transhepatic recanalization of malignant hilarobstruction: A possible rescue for early failure of endoscopic y-stenting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kwon, Hoon; Kim, Chang Won; Lee, Tae Hong; Kim, Dong Uk [Pusan National University School of Medicine, Pusan National University Hospital, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Jeon, Ung Bae; Kang, Dae Hwan [Pusan National University School of Medicine, Yangsan Pusan National University Hospital, Yangsan (Korea, Republic of)

2013-11-15

Endoscopic biliary stenting is well known as an optimal method of management of malignant hilar obstruction, but sometimes the result is not satisfactory, with early stent failure. Percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) has a distinct advantage over endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatoscopy in that with ultrasound guidance one or more appropriate segments for drainage can be chosen. We evaluated the effectiveness of percutaneous transhepatic stenting as a rescue of early failure of endoscopic stenting. Ten patients (4 men, 6 women; age range, 52-78 years; mean age, 69 years) with inoperable biliary obstruction (2 patients with gall bladder cancer and hilar invasion, and 8 patients with Klatskin tumor) and with early endoscopic stent failure were included in our study. All of the patients underwent PTBD and percutaneous transhepatic biliary stenting. Metallic stents were placed in all patients for internal drainage. Percutaneous rescue stenting was successful in all the patients technically and clinically. Mean time for the development of biliary obstruction was 13.5 days after endoscopic stenting. The mean patency of the rescue stenting was 122 days. The mean survival time for percutaneous transhepatic rescue stenting was 226.3 days. In early failure of endoscopic biliary stenting, percutaneous transhepatic recanalization can be a possible solution.

Percutaneous transhepatic recanalization of malignant hilarobstruction: A possible rescue for early failure of endoscopic y-stenting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, Hoon; Kim, Chang Won; Lee, Tae Hong; Kim, Dong Uk; Jeon, Ung Bae; Kang, Dae Hwan

2013-01-01

Endoscopic biliary stenting is well known as an optimal method of management of malignant hilar obstruction, but sometimes the result is not satisfactory, with early stent failure. Percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) has a distinct advantage over endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatoscopy in that with ultrasound guidance one or more appropriate segments for drainage can be chosen. We evaluated the effectiveness of percutaneous transhepatic stenting as a rescue of early failure of endoscopic stenting. Ten patients (4 men, 6 women; age range, 52-78 years; mean age, 69 years) with inoperable biliary obstruction (2 patients with gall bladder cancer and hilar invasion, and 8 patients with Klatskin tumor) and with early endoscopic stent failure were included in our study. All of the patients underwent PTBD and percutaneous transhepatic biliary stenting. Metallic stents were placed in all patients for internal drainage. Percutaneous rescue stenting was successful in all the patients technically and clinically. Mean time for the development of biliary obstruction was 13.5 days after endoscopic stenting. The mean patency of the rescue stenting was 122 days. The mean survival time for percutaneous transhepatic rescue stenting was 226.3 days. In early failure of endoscopic biliary stenting, percutaneous transhepatic recanalization can be a possible solution.

Standard guide for corrosion-related failure analysis

CERN Document Server

American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

2000-01-01

1.1 This guide covers key issues to be considered when examining metallic failures when corrosion is suspected as either a major or minor causative factor. 1.2 Corrosion-related failures could include one or more of the following: change in surface appearance (for example, tarnish, rust, color change), pin hole leak, catastrophic structural failure (for example, collapse, explosive rupture, implosive rupture, cracking), weld failure, loss of electrical continuity, and loss of functionality (for example, seizure, galling, spalling, swelling). 1.3 Issues covered include overall failure site conditions, operating conditions at the time of failure, history of equipment and its operation, corrosion product sampling, environmental sampling, metallurgical and electrochemical factors, morphology (mode) or failure, and by considering the preceding, deducing the cause(s) of corrosion failure. This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibili...

Establishment of a rat model of early-stage liver failure and Th17/Treg imbalance

OpenAIRE

LI Dong; LU Zhonghua; GAN Jianhe

2016-01-01

ObjectiveTo investigate the methods for establishing a rat model of early-stage liver failure and the changes in Th17, Treg, and Th17/Treg after dexamethasone and thymosin interventions. MethodsA total of 64 rats were randomly divided into carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) group and endotoxin ［lipopolysaccharide (LPS)］/D-galactosamine (D-GalN) combination group to establish the rat model of early-stage liver failure. The activities of the rats and changes in liver function and whole blood Th17 and ...

Homeland Security is Hometown Security: Comparison and Case Studies of Vertically Synchronized Catastrophe Response Plans

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-01

Hurricanes Andrew, Hugo , and Katrina resonate as failures where there was little, if any, federal response in the initial hours, which left the depleted...was also initiated by several large scale incidents, including the Three Mile Island Disaster and Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew.67 This evolved at the...persist during large scale disasters, as was demonstrated during Hurricane Katrina and Super Storm Sandy. Catastrophe response planning at the

Socio-economic consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe. Social protection of the citizens, affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kholosha, V.; Kovalchuk, V.

2003-01-01

The accident on Chernobyl NPP has affected the destiny of 35 million people in Ukraine. The social protection of the population affected during Chernobyl catastrophe is founded on the Law of Ukraine 'About the status and social protection of citizens affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe' (see further - 'Law'), and is the principal direction of activity and the subject of the special state attention to total complex of problems bound to Chernobyl catastrophe consequences elimination. The current legislation stipulates partial compensation of material losses connected with resettlement of the affected population. According to the current legislation in Ukraine about 50 kinds of aid, privileges and compensations are submitted to the affected citizens

Multiple Sclerosis and Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Juyani, Yaser; Hamedi, Dorsa; Hosseini Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe; Qasham, Maryam

2016-09-01

There are many disabling medical conditions which can result in catastrophic health expenditure. Multiple Sclerosis is one of the most costly medical conditions through the world which encounter families to the catastrophic health expenditures. This study aims to investigate on what extent Multiple sclerosis patients face catastrophic costs. This study was carried out in Ahvaz, Iran (2014). The study population included households that at least one of their members suffers from MS. To analyze data, Logit regression model was employed by using the default software STATA12. 3.37% of families were encountered with catastrophic costs. Important variables including brand of drug, housing, income and health insurance were significantly correlated with catastrophic expenditure. This study suggests that although a small proportion of MS patients met the catastrophic health expenditure, mechanisms that pool risk and cost (e.g. health insurance) are required to protect them and improve financial and access equity in health care.

Rooting out causes in failure analysis; Risk analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keith, Graeme

2010-07-01

The Deepwater Horizon disaster was a terrible reminder of the consequences of equipment failure on facilities operating in challenging environments. Thankfully catastrophes on the scale of the Deepwater Horizon are rare, but equipment failure is a daily occurrence on installations around the globe. The consequences range from short unexpected downtime, to a total stop on production. from a brief burst of flaring to lasting environmental damage and from the momentary discomfiture of a worker to incapability or death. (Author)

DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

2016-07-10

2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

2016-01-01

2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rawhya R. El-Shereef

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

[Early detection, prevention and management of renal failure in liver transplantation].

Science.gov (United States)

Castells, Lluís; Baliellas, Carme; Bilbao, Itxarone; Cantarell, Carme; Cruzado, Josep Maria; Esforzado, Núria; García-Valdecasas, Juan Carlos; Lladó, Laura; Rimola, Antoni; Serón, Daniel; Oppenheimer, Federico

2014-10-01

Renal failure is a frequent complication in liver transplant recipients and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. A variety of risk factors for the development of renal failure in the pre- and post-transplantation periods have been described, as well as at the time of surgery. To reduce the negative impact of renal failure in this population, an active approach is required for the identification of those patients with risk factors, the implementation of preventive strategies, and the early detection of progressive deterioration of renal function. Based on published evidence and on clinical experience, this document presents a series of recommendations on monitoring RF in LT recipients, as well as on the prevention and management of acute and chronic renal failure after LT and referral of these patients to the nephrologist. In addition, this document also provides an update of the various immunosuppressive regimens tested in this population for the prevention and control of post-transplantation deterioration of renal function. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.

Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2014-01-01

The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according ...... to the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. Case report and literature review

Science.gov (United States)

del Carpio-Orantes, Luis; Martínez-Anaya, Chantall Citlally; Bonilla-Casas, Elías

2017-01-01

The present document is the report of a case of a very rare clinical entity, which presents with acute multiorganic failure after a thrombotic storm related to antiphospholipid antibodies, the so-called catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, which began as a recurrent picture of mesenteric thrombosis, with a previous history of venous insufficiency and distal ulcers probably associated with an unidentified antiphospholipid; deserving management in intensive care and the consultation by the world expert, Dr. Ricard Cervera who confirmed the diagnosis and recommend treating as such entity, the patient's evolution was satisfactory so far. Final recommendations for diagnosis and current treatment options such as rituximab or eculizumab are made. The present case was added to the international registry that currently houses around 500 cases worldwide (International CAPS Registry). Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud

Nanowire failure: long = brittle and short = ductile.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Zhaoxuan; Zhang, Yong-Wei; Jhon, Mark H; Gao, Huajian; Srolovitz, David J

2012-02-08

Experimental studies of the tensile behavior of metallic nanowires show a wide range of failure modes, ranging from ductile necking to brittle/localized shear failure-often in the same diameter wires. We performed large-scale molecular dynamics simulations of copper nanowires with a range of nanowire lengths and provide unequivocal evidence for a transition in nanowire failure mode with change in nanowire length. Short nanowires fail via a ductile mode with serrated stress-strain curves, while long wires exhibit extreme shear localization and abrupt failure. We developed a simple model for predicting the critical nanowire length for this failure mode transition and showed that it is in excellent agreement with both the simulation results and the extant experimental data. The present results provide a new paradigm for the design of nanoscale mechanical systems that demarcates graceful and catastrophic failure. © 2012 American Chemical Society

Phrenic Nerve Conduction Study in the Early Stage of Guillain-Barre Syndrome as a Predictor of Respiratory Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Sen, Barun Kumar; Pandit, Alak

2018-01-01

Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) has unpredictable clinical course with severe complication of respiratory failure. To identify clinical profiles and electrophysiological study particularly non-invasive Phrenic nerve conduction study in patients of early GBS to predict respiratory failure. 64 adult (age≥18yrs) patients of early GBS (onset ≤ 14 days) during the study period from January 2014 to October 2015 were evaluated by clinical profiles of age, gender, antecedent infection, time to peak disability, single breath counts, cranial nerve involvement, autonomic dysfunction and non-invasive Phrenic nerve conduction study. Patients with predisposition factors of polyneuropathy like diabetes mellitus, hypothyroidism, vitamin deficiency, renal failure were excluded. Among 64 patients abnormal phrenic nerve conduction study was seen in 65.62% cases (42/64) and 45.23% (19/42) of them developed respiratory failure. Phrenic nerve sum latency, amplitude, duration and area were abnormal in those who developed respiratory failure and they had sum of phrenic nerve latency >28 msec, sum of CMAP amplitude 50 msec and sum of area phrenic nerve study developed respiratory failure. It was found that age, gender, preceding infection, autonomic involvement and types of GB syndrome had no influence on development of respiratory failure (p>0.05). Rapid disease progression to peak disability, more severe disease, shorter single breath counts and cranial nerve involvement were seen more often in patients with respiratory failure. Abnormal Phrenic nerve conduction study in the early Guillain-Barré syndrome might be of great value independently in predicting impending respiratory failure.

Phrenic Nerve Conduction Study in the Early Stage of Guillain–Barre Syndrome as a Predictor of Respiratory Failure

Science.gov (United States)

Sen, Barun Kumar; Pandit, Alak

2018-01-01

Background: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) has unpredictable clinical course with severe complication of respiratory failure. Objective: To identify clinical profiles and electrophysiological study particularly non-invasive Phrenic nerve conduction study in patients of early GBS to predict respiratory failure. Methods: 64 adult (age≥18yrs) patients of early GBS (onset ≤ 14 days) during the study period from January 2014 to October 2015 were evaluated by clinical profiles of age, gender, antecedent infection, time to peak disability, single breath counts, cranial nerve involvement, autonomic dysfunction and non-invasive Phrenic nerve conduction study. Patients with predisposition factors of polyneuropathy like diabetes mellitus, hypothyroidism, vitamin deficiency, renal failure were excluded. Results: Among 64 patients abnormal phrenic nerve conduction study was seen in 65.62% cases (42/64) and 45.23% (19/42) of them developed respiratory failure. Phrenic nerve sum latency, amplitude, duration and area were abnormal in those who developed respiratory failure and they had sum of phrenic nerve latency >28 msec, sum of CMAP amplitude 50 msec and sum of area phrenic nerve study developed respiratory failure. It was found that age, gender, preceding infection, autonomic involvement and types of GB syndrome had no influence on development of respiratory failure (p>0.05). Rapid disease progression to peak disability, more severe disease, shorter single breath counts and cranial nerve involvement were seen more often in patients with respiratory failure. Conclusion: Abnormal Phrenic nerve conduction study in the early Guillain-Barré syndrome might be of great value independently in predicting impending respiratory failure. PMID:29720799

PARAMETRIC INSURANCE COVER FOR NATURAL CATASTROPHE RISKS

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Serghei Margulescu

2013-11-01

Full Text Available With economic losses of over USD 370 bn caused by 325 catastrophic events, 2011 ranks as the worst ever year in terms of costs to society due to natural catastrophes and man-made disasters. Inthe same time, 2011 is the second most expensive year in the history for the insurance industry, with insured losses from catastrophic events amounting to USD 116 bn. Both the high level of damages and insured losses, as well as the unprecedented gap between the two values, made insurers and reinsurers worldwide to understand that some risks had so far been underestimated and they have to be better integrated in the catastrophes modelling.On the other hand, governments have to protect themselves against the financial impact of natural catastrophes and new forms of cooperation between the public and private sectors can help countries finance disaster risks. Viewed in a country’s wider risk management context, the purchase of parametric insurance cover, which transfers natural catastrophe risk to the private sector using an index- based trigger, is a necessary shift towards a pre-emptive risk management strategy. This kind of approach can be pursued by central governments or at the level of provincial or municipal governments, and a number of case studies included in the publication “Closing the financial gap” by Swiss Re (2011 illustrates how new forms of parametric insurance can help countries finance disaster risks.

A probability model for the failure of pressure containing parts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, H.M.

1978-01-01

The model provides a method of estimating the order of magnitude of the leakage failure probability of pressure containing parts. It is a fatigue based model which makes use of the statistics available for both specimens and vessels. Some novel concepts are introduced but essentially the model simply quantifies the obvious i.e. that failure probability increases with increases in stress levels, number of cycles, volume of material and volume of weld metal. A further model based on fracture mechanics estimates the catastrophic fraction of leakage failures. (author)

Applications of modelling historical catastrophic events with implications for catastrophe risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Sorby, A.; Grossi, P.; Pomonis, A.; Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.

2009-04-01

The management of catastrophe risk is concerned with the quantification of financial losses, and their associated probabilities, for potential future catastrophes that might impact a region. Modelling of historical catastrophe events and, in particular, the potential consequences if a similar event were to occur at the present day can provide insight to help bridge the gap between what we know can happen from historical experience and what potential losses might be out there in the "universe" of potential catastrophes. The 1908 Messina Earthquake (and accompanying local tsunami) was one of the most destructive earthquakes to have occurred in Europe and by most accounts remains Europe's most fatal with over 70,000 casualties estimated. However, what would the potential consequences be, in terms of financial and human losses, if a similar earthquake were to occur at the present day? Exposures, building stock and populations can change over time and, therefore, the consequences of a similar earthquake at the present day may sensibly differ from those observed in 1908. The city of Messina has been reconstructed several times in its history, including following the 1908 earthquake and again following the Second World War. The 1908 earthquake prompted the introduction of the first seismic design regulations in Italy and since 1909 parts of the Messina and Calabria regions have been in the zones of highest seismic coefficient. Utilizing commercial catastrophe loss modelling technology - which combines the modelling of hazard, vulnerability, and financial losses on a database of property exposures - a modelled earthquake scenario of M7.2 in the Messina Straits region of Southern Italy is considered. This modelled earthquake is used to assess the potential consequences in terms of financial losses that an earthquake similar to the 1908 earthquake might have if it were to occur at the present day. Loss results are discussed in the context of applications for the financial

The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

Science.gov (United States)

Voight, Barry

1990-12-01

This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

The impact of climate change on catastrophe risk models : implications for catastrophe risk markets in developing countries

OpenAIRE

Seo, John; Mahul, Olivier

2009-01-01

Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, i...

Root causes investigation of catastrophic optical bulk damage in high-power InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers

Science.gov (United States)

Sin, Yongkun; Lingley, Zachary; Ayvazian, Talin; Brodie, Miles; Ives, Neil

2018-02-01

High-power single-mode (SM) and multi-mode (MM) InGaAs-AlGaAs strained quantum well (QW) lasers are critical components for both terrestrial and space satellite communications systems. Since these lasers predominantly fail by catastrophic and sudden degradation due to COD, it is especially crucial for space satellite applications to investigate reliability, failure modes, and degradation mechanisms of these lasers. Our group reported a new failure mode in MM and SM InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers in 2009 and 2016, respectively. Our group also reported in 2017 that bulk failure due to catastrophic optical bulk damage (COBD) is the dominant failure mode of both SM and MM lasers that were subject to long-term life-tests. For the present study, we report root causes investigation of COBD by performing long-term lifetests followed by failure mode analysis (FMA) using various micro-analytical techniques including electron beam induced current (EBIC), time-resolved electroluminescence (EL), focused ion beam (FIB), high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and deep level transient spectroscopy (DLTS). Our life-tests with accumulated test hours of over 25,000 hours for SM lasers and over 35,000 hours for MM lasers generated a number of COBD failures with various failure times. EBIC techniques were employed to study dark line defects (DLDs) generated in SM COBD failures stressed under different test conditions. FIB and high-resolution TEM were employed to prepare cross sectional and plan view TEM specimens to study DLD areas (dislocations) in post-aged SM lasers. Time-resolved EL techniques were employed to study initiation and progressions of dark spots and dark lines in real time as MM lasers were aged. Lastly, to investigate precursor signatures of failure and degradation mechanisms responsible for COBD in both SM and MM lasers, we employed DLTS techniques to study a role that electron traps (non-radiative recombination centers) play in degradation of these

Early Treatment Outcome in Failure to Thrive: Predictions from a Transactional Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Drotar, Dennis

Children diagnosed with environmentally based failure to thrive early during their first year of life were seen at 12 and 18 months for assessment of psychological development (cognition, language, symbolic play, and behavior during testing). Based on a transactional model of outcome, factors reflecting biological vulnerability (wasting and…

Failure Waves in Shock-Compressed Glasses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanel, G. I.

2006-01-01

The failure wave is a network of cracks that are nucleated on the surface and propagate into the elastically stressed body. It is a mode of catastrophic fracture in an elastically stressed media whose relevance is not limited to impact events. In the paper, main properties of the failure waves are summarized and discussed. It has been shown that the failure wave is really a wave process which is characterized by small increase of the longitudinal stress and corresponding increments of the particle velocity and the density. The propagation velocity of the failure wave is less than the sound speed; it is not directly related to the compressibility but is determined by the crack growth speed. The failure wave is steady if the stress state ahead of it is supported unchanging. In some sense the process is similar to a subsonic combustion wave. Computer simulations based on the phenomenological combustion-like model reproduces well all kinematical aspects of the phenomenon

Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joel E Bialosky

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

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Jian Liu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D

2016-01-01

that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...

Outcome of Early Initiation of Peritoneal Dialysis in Patients with End-Stage Renal Failure

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Kook-Hwan; Hwang, Young-Hwan; Cho, Jung-Hwa; Kim, Mira; Ju, Kyung Don; Joo, Kwon Wook; Kim, Dong Ki; Kim, Yon Su; Ahn, Curie

2012-01-01

Recent studies reported that early initiation of hemodialysis may increase mortality. However, studies that assessed the influence of early initiation of peritoneal dialysis (PD) yielded controversial results. In the present study, we evaluated the prognosis of early initiation of PD on the various outcomes of end stage renal failure patients by using propensity-score matching methods. Incident PD patients (n = 491) who started PD at SNU Hospital were enrolled. The patients were divided into 'early starters (n = 244)' and 'late starters (n = 247)' on the basis of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at the start of dialysis. The calculated propensity-score was used for one-to-one matching. After propensity-score-based matching (n = 136, for each group), no significant differences were observed in terms of all-cause mortality (P = 0.17), technique failure (P = 0.62), cardiovascular event (P = 0.96) and composite event (P = 0.86) between the early and late starters. Stratification analysis in the propensity-score quartiles (n = 491) exhibited no trend toward better or poorer survival in terms of all-cause mortality. In conclusion, early commencement of PD does not reduce the mortality risk and other outcomes. Although the recent guidelines suggest that initiation of dialysis at higher eGFR, physicians should not determine the time to initiate PD therapy simply rely on the eGFR alone. PMID:22323864

Dependent failure analysis of NPP data bases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooper, S.E.; Lofgren, E.V.; Samanta, P.K.; Wong Seemeng

1993-01-01

A technical approach for analyzing plant-specific data bases for vulnerabilities to dependent failures has been developed and applied. Since the focus of this work is to aid in the formulation of defenses to dependent failures, rather than to quantify dependent failure probabilities, the approach of this analysis is critically different. For instance, the determination of component failure dependencies has been based upon identical failure mechanisms related to component piecepart failures, rather than failure modes. Also, component failures involving all types of component function loss (e.g., catastrophic, degraded, incipient) are equally important to the predictive purposes of dependent failure defense development. Consequently, dependent component failures are identified with a different dependent failure definition which uses a component failure mechanism categorization scheme in this study. In this context, clusters of component failures which satisfy the revised dependent failure definition are termed common failure mechanism (CFM) events. Motor-operated valves (MOVs) in two nuclear power plant data bases have been analyzed with this approach. The analysis results include seven different failure mechanism categories; identified potential CFM events; an assessment of the risk-significance of the potential CFM events using existing probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs); and postulated defenses to the identified potential CFM events. (orig.)

CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

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Ciumas Cristina

2013-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

The 27 May 1937 catastrophic flow failure of gold tailings at Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, México

Science.gov (United States)

Macías, J. L.; Corona-Chávez, P.; Sanchéz-Núñez, J. M.; Martínez-Medina, M.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.; García-Tenorio, F.; Cisneros-Máximo, G.

2014-08-01

On 27 May 1937, after one week of sustained heavy rainfall, a voluminous flood caused the death of at least 300 people and the destruction of the historic El Carmen church and several neighborhoods in the mining region of Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, central Mexico. This destructive flood was triggered by the breaching of the impoundment of the Los Cedros tailings and the sudden release of 16 Mt of water-saturated waste materials. The muddy silty flood, moving at estimated speeds of 20-25 m s-1, was channelized along the Dos Estrellas and Tlalpujahua drainages and devastated everything along its flow path. After advancing 2.5 km downstream, the flood slammed into El Carmen church and surrounding houses at estimated speeds of ~7 m s-1, destroying many of construction walls and covering the church floor with ~2 m of mud and debris. Eyewitness accounts and newspaper articles, together with analysis of archived photographic materials, indicated that the flood consisted of three muddy pulses. This interpretation is confirmed and extended by the results of our geological investigations during 2013 and 2014. Stratigraphic relations and granulometric data for selected proximal and distal samples show that the flood behaved as a hyperconcentrated flow along most of its trajectory. Even though premonitory signs of possible impoundment failure were reported days before the flood, and people living downstream were alerted, authorities ordered no evacuations or other mitigative actions. The catastrophic flood at Tlalpujahua provides a well-documented, though tragic, example of impoundment breaching of a tailings dam caused by the combined effects of intense rainfall, dam weakness, and inadequate emergency-management protocols - unfortunately an all too common case-scenario for most of the world's mining regions.

Early biomarkers of acute kidney failure after heart angiography or heart surgery in patients with acute coronary syndrome or acute heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Torregrosa, Isidro; Montoliu, Carmina; Urios, Amparo; Elmlili, Nisrin; Puchades, María Jesús; Solís, Miguel Angel; Sanjuán, Rafael; Blasco, Maria Luisa; Ramos, Carmen; Tomás, Patricia; Ribes, José; Carratalá, Arturo; Juan, Isabel; Miguel, Alfonso

2012-01-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication in cardiac surgery and coronary angiography, which worsens patients' prognosis. The diagnosis is based on the increase in serum creatinine, which is delayed. It is necessary to identify and validate new biomarkers that allow for early and effective interventions. To assess the sensitivity and specificity of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin in urine (uNGAL), interleukin-18 (IL-18) in urine and cystatin C in serum for the early detection of AKI in patients with acute coronary syndrome or heart failure, and who underwent cardiac surgery or catheterization. The study included 135 patients admitted to the intensive care unit for acute coronary syndrome or heart failure due to coronary or valvular pathology and who underwent coronary angiography or cardiac bypass surgery or valvular replacement. The biomarkers were determined 12 hours after surgery and serum creatinine was monitored during the next six days for the diagnosis of AKI. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for NGAL was 0.983, and for cystatin C and IL-18 the AUCs were 0.869 and 0.727, respectively. At a cut-off of 31.9 ng/ml for uNGAL the sensitivity was 100% and the specificity was 91%. uNGAL is an early marker of AKI in patients with acute coronary syndrome or heart failure and undergoing cardiac surgery and coronary angiography, with a higher predictive value than cystatin C or IL-18.

Expected dose for the early failure scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.; Hansen, C.W.; Sallaberry, C.J.

2014-01-01

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes the determination of expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository for the early waste package (WP) failure scenario class and the early drip shield (DS) failure scenario class in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) properties of the early failure scenario classes and the determination of dose and expected dose the RMEI, (ii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the early WP failure scenario class, (iii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the early DS failure scenario class, (iv) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the combined early WP and early DS failure scenario class with and without the inclusion of failures resulting from nominal processes, and (v) uncertainty in the occurrence of early failure scenario classes. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA. - Highlights: • Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. DOE in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. • Properties of the early failure scenario classes (i.e. early waste package failure and early drip shield failure) in the 2008 YM performance assessment are described. • Determination of dose, expected dose and expected (mean

From a Catastrophe Itself to Cata/strophic Reading. The Poetry of Charles Baudelaire in the Account of Jorge Semprúna L’écriture ou la vie

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Judith Kasper

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This essay addresses the instable meaning of the term catastrophe over the course of history. The first part takes leave of the “the tiny fissures” in the continuous catastrophe noted by Walter Benjamin to develop a philology of the cata/strophe. This philology does not only register a given meaning (for instance, of the catastrophe, but intervenes actively as disruption. It insists on the strophe in the catastrophe, transforming catastrophe into cata/strophe that, in fatal situations, permits the poetic potential to become a dynamic force that can, at least on the linguistic level, open toward other dimensions without denying the catastrophe itself. The second part is dedicated to a reading of Jorge Semprún’s autobiographical novel L’écriture ou la vie from the perspective of this philological concept. It seeks to show how Semprún’s citing and reciting of Baudelaire’s strophes in the putrid atmosphere of the Buchenwald concentration camp literally produce, on the level of the signifiers, fresh air to breathe.

Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam; Ryu, Sang Wan

2006-01-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

2006-09-15

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

The difference in causes of early and late ultrafiltration failure in peritoneal dialysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Smit, Watske; Parikova, Alena; Struijk, Dirk G.; Krediet, Raymond T.

2005-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Ultrafiltration failure (UFF) is a major complication of peritoneal dialysis. Although it seems associated with long-term treatment, it can also occur in recently started patients. To identify the causes of this complication in patients with early and late UFF we studied a group of 48

Vaginismus: heightened harm avoidance and pain catastrophizing cognitions.

Science.gov (United States)

Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J

2012-02-01

Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of increasing avoidance of (anticipated) pain. In vaginismus the anticipation of pain may give rise to catastrophic pain ideation. This may establish hypervigilance toward painful sexual stimuli, which consequently results in negative appraisal of sexual cues. This process could impair genital and sexual responding, intensify pain and trigger avoidance, which in turn may contribute to the onset and persistence of symptoms in vaginismus and to certain extent also in dyspareunia. To investigate whether women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by heightened levels of habitual pain catastrophic cognitions, together with higher levels of HA. This study consisted of three groups: a lifelong vaginismus group (N = 35, mean age = 28.4; standard deviation [SD] = 5.8), a dyspareunia group (N = 33, mean age = 26.7; SD = 6.8), and women without sexual complaints (N = 54, mean age = 26.5; SD = 6.7). HA scale of Cloninger's tridimensional personality questionnaire, and the pain catastrophizing scale. Specifically women inflicted with vaginismus showed significantly heightened levels of catastrophic pain cognitions compared with the other two groups, as well as significant enhanced HA vs. the control group, and a trend vs. the dyspareunia group. Both traits were shown to have cumulative predictive validity for the presence of vaginismus. This study focused on the personality traits of catastrophizing pain cognitions and HA in women with lifelong vaginismus. Our findings showed that indeed, women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by trait of HA interwoven with habitual pain catastrophizing cognitions. This study could help in the refinement of the current conceptualization and might shed

Socioeconomic inequality in catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Boing, Alexandra Crispim; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de; Posenato, Leila Garcia; Peres, Karen Glazer

2014-08-01

To analyze the evolution of catastrophic health expenditure and the inequalities in such expenses, according to the socioeconomic characteristics of Brazilian families. Data from the National Household Budget 2002-2003 (48,470 households) and 2008-2009 (55,970 households) were analyzed. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as excess expenditure, considering different methods of calculation: 10.0% and 20.0% of total consumption and 40.0% of the family's capacity to pay. The National Economic Indicator and schooling were considered as socioeconomic characteristics. Inequality measures utilized were the relative difference between rates, the rates ratio, and concentration index. The catastrophic health expenditure varied between 0.7% and 21.0%, depending on the calculation method. The lowest prevalences were noted in relation to the capacity to pay, while the highest, in relation to total consumption. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure increased by 25.0% from 2002-2003 to 2008-2009 when the cutoff point of 20.0% relating to the total consumption was considered and by 100% when 40.0% or more of the capacity to pay was applied as the cut-off point. Socioeconomic inequalities in the catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil between 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 increased significantly, becoming 5.20 times higher among the poorest and 4.17 times higher among the least educated. There was an increase in catastrophic health expenditure among Brazilian families, principally among the poorest and those headed by the least-educated individuals, contributing to an increase in social inequality.

Understanding catastrophizing from a misdirected problem-solving perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Flink, Ida K; Boersma, Katja; MacDonald, Shane; Linton, Steven J

2012-05-01

The aim is to explore pain catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective. The links between catastrophizing, problem framing, and problem-solving behaviour are examined through two possible models of mediation as inferred by two contemporary and complementary theoretical models, the misdirected problem solving model (Eccleston & Crombez, 2007) and the fear-anxiety-avoidance model (Asmundson, Norton, & Vlaeyen, 2004). In this prospective study, a general population sample (n= 173) with perceived problems with spinal pain filled out questionnaires twice; catastrophizing and problem framing were assessed on the first occasion and health care seeking (as a proxy for medically oriented problem solving) was assessed 7 months later. Two different approaches were used to explore whether the data supported any of the proposed models of mediation. First, multiple regressions were used according to traditional recommendations for mediation analyses. Second, a bootstrapping method (n= 1000 bootstrap resamples) was used to explore the significance of the indirect effects in both possible models of mediation. The results verified the concepts included in the misdirected problem solving model. However, the direction of the relations was more in line with the fear-anxiety-avoidance model. More specifically, the mediation analyses provided support for viewing catastrophizing as a mediator of the relation between biomedical problem framing and medically oriented problem-solving behaviour. These findings provide support for viewing catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective and imply a need to examine and address problem framing and catastrophizing in back pain patients. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diebel, Martin

2017-01-01

The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

Clinical Pain Catastrophizing in Women With Migraine and Obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bond, Dale S; Buse, Dawn C; Lipton, Richard B; Thomas, J Graham; Rathier, Lucille; Roth, Julie; Pavlovic, Jelena M; Evans, E Whitney; Wing, Rena R

2015-01-01

Obesity is related to migraine. Maladaptive pain coping strategies (eg, pain catastrophizing) may provide insight into this relationship. In women with migraine and obesity, we cross-sectionally assessed: (1) prevalence of clinical catastrophizing; (2) characteristics of those with and without clinical catastrophizing; and (3) associations of catastrophizing with headache features. Obese women migraineurs seeking weight loss treatment (n = 105) recorded daily migraine activity for 1 month via smartphone and completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Clinical catastrophizing was defined as total PCS score ≥30. The six-item Headache Impact Test (HIT-6), 12-item Allodynia Symptom Checklist (ASC-12), Headache Management Self-Efficacy Scale (HMSE), and assessments for depression (Centers for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) and anxiety (seven-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale) were also administered. Using PCS scores and body mass index (BMI) as predictors in linear regression, we modeled a series of headache features (ie, headache days, HIT-6, etc) as outcomes. One quarter (25.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.2-34.1%) of participants met criteria for clinical catastrophizing: they had higher BMI (37.9 ± 7.5 vs 34.4 ± 5.7 kg/m(2) , P = .035); longer migraine attack duration (160.8 ± 145.0 vs 97.5 ± 75.2 hours/month, P = .038); higher HIT-6 scores (68.7 ± 4.6 vs 64.5 ± 3.9, P duration (β = 0.390, P duration, higher pain sensitivity, greater headache impact, and lower headache management self-efficacy. In all participants, PCS scores were related to several migraine characteristics, above and beyond the effects of obesity. Prospective studies are needed to determine sequence and mechanisms of relationships between catastrophizing, obesity, and migraine. © 2015 American Headache Society.

[Heart failure as early manifestation of neonatal hyperthyroidism. Case report].

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarado S, Jorge Luis; Fernández V, Zhirly Andrea

2014-04-01

Neonatal hyperthyroidism is usually a self-limited condition frequently associated with transplacental passage of thyroid stimulating antibodies secondary to maternal autoimmune disorders. To timely detect mothers with this medical antecedents decreases the risk for fetal adverse events. To report a case of neonatal hyperthyroidism associated with intrauterine growth restriction and heart failure. A 36 week-old newborn with birth weight of 1,240 g. Symptoms were tachycardia, distal coldness, exophthalmos, hepatomegaly and tremors. Echocardiogram ruled out structural heart disorders. Due to maternal symptoms suggestive of hyperthyroidism, TSH tests were performed showing 0.01 ulU/ml, free T4 7.7 ng/dl, so the diagnosis of neonatal hyperthyroidism was confirmed. It was treated with methimazole and propanol, alleviating the symptoms and decreasing the levels of free T4. To know the maternal history helps identify and manage neonatal complications of hyperthyroidism. Heart failure and other cardiopulmonary disorders are determinants of mortality during early neonatal period. High-risk newborns should receive follow up assessments.

The Chernobyl accident, a catastrophe or an eye-opener?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baarli, J.

1989-01-01

The Chernobyl accident is reviewed as to its cause, the way it was handled locally and the consequenses from released radioactivity. It is emphasized that the exposure from the released radioactivity, as to the effective dose equivalent and the committed dose equivalent is small and comparable with the dose equivalent from natural ionizing radiation near the accident, and only a few per cent of this value at more remote distances. It is concluded that the accident probably has been one of the greatest psychological catastrophes that we so far has experienced, but not so when referring to early deaths or radiation damage directly to individuals

Catastrophic events and older adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Cloyd, Elizabeth; Dyer, Carmel B

2010-12-01

The plight of older adults during catastrophic events is a societal concern. Older persons have an increased prevalence of cognitive disorders, chronic illnesses, and mobility problems that limit their ability to cope. These disorders may result in a lack of mental capacity and the ability to discern when they should evacuate or resolve problems encountered during a catastrophe. Some older persons may have limited transportation options, and many of the elderly survivors are at increased risk for abuse, neglect, and exploitation. Recommendations for future catastrophic events include the development of a federal tracking system for elders and other vulnerable adults, the designation of separate shelter areas for elders and other vulnerable adults, and involvement of gerontological professionals in all aspects of emergency preparedness and care delivery, including training of frontline workers. Preparation through preevent planning that includes region-specific social services, medical and public health resources, volunteers, and facilities for elders and vulnerable adults is critical. Elders need to be protected from abuse and fraud during catastrophic events. A public health triage system for elders and other vulnerable populations in pre- and postdisaster situations is useful, and disaster preparedness is paramount. Communities and members of safety and rescue teams must address ethical issues before an event. When older adults are involved, consideration needs to be given to triage decision making, transporting those who are immobile, the care of older adults who receive palliative care, and the equitable distribution of resources. Nurses are perfectly equipped with the skills, knowledge, and training needed to plan and implement disaster preparedness programs. In keeping with the tradition of Florence Nightingale, nurses can assume several crucial roles in disaster preparedness for older adults. Nurses possess the ability to participate and lead community

Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jindrová Pavla

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

Spiral arms, comets and terrestrial catastrophism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clube, S.V.M.; Napier, W.M.

1982-01-01

A review is presented of an hypothesis of terrestrial catastrophism in which comets grow in molecular clouds and are captured by the Sun as it passes through the spiral arms of the Galaxy. Assuming that comets are a major supplier of the Earth-crossing (Appollo) asteroid population, the latter fluctuates correspondingly and leads to episodes of terrestrial bombardment. Changes in the rotational momentum of core and mantle, generated by impacts, lead to episodes of magnetic field reversal and tectonic activity, while surface phenomena lead to ice-ages and mass extinctions. An episodic geophysical history with an interstellar connection is thus implied. If comets in spiral arms are necessary intermediaries in the process of star formation, the theory also has implications relating to early solar system history and galactic chemistry. These aspects are briefly discussed with special reference to the nature of spiral arms. (author)

Catastrophe Theory and Caustics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gravesen, Jens

1983-01-01

It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed....

The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in children.

Science.gov (United States)

Go, Ellen J L; O'Neil, Kathleen M

2017-09-01

To review the difficult syndrome of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, emphasizing new developments in the diagnosis, pathogenesis and treatment. Few recent publications directly address pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Most articles are case reports or are data from adult and pediatric registries. The major factors contributing to most pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome include infection and the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies, but complement activation also is important in creating diffuse thrombosis in the microcirculation. Treatment of the acute emergency requires anticoagulation, suppression of the hyperinflammatory state and elimination of the triggering infection. Inhibition of complement activation appears to improve outcome in limited studies, and suppression of antiphospholipid antibody formation may be important in long-term management. CAPS, an antibody-mediated diffuse thrombotic disease of microvasculature, is rare in childhood but has high mortality (33-50%). It requires prompt recognition and aggressive multimodality treatment, including anticoagulation, anti-inflammatory therapy and elimination of inciting infection and pathogenic autoantibodies.

Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

2018-02-01

We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

Lupus-Negative Libman-Sacks Endocarditis Complicated by Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Murtaza, Ghulam; Iskandar, Joy; Humphrey, Tara; Adhikari, Sujeen; Kuruvilla, Aneesh

2017-04-01

Libman-Sacks endocarditis is characterized by sterile and verrucous lesions that predominantly affect the aortic and mitral valves. In most cases, patients do not have significant valvular dysfunction. However, patients with significant valvular dysfunction may present with serious complications such as cardiac failure, arrhythmias, and thromboembolic events. Recently, association of Libman-Sacks endocarditis with antiphospholipid antibody syndrome (APS) has been made. APS is most commonly defined by venous and arterial thrombosis, recurrent pregnancy loss, and thrombocytopenia. While the syndrome can be a primary syndrome, it is usually secondary to systemic lupus erythematosus. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) can be a life-threatening presentation of APS and can occur in 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome. We present a very rare case of a young female patient with lupus-negative Libman-Sacks endocarditis complicated by CAPS.

Identification of failure type in corroded pipelines: a bayesian probabilistic approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Breton, T; Sanchez-Gheno, J C; Alamilla, J L; Alvarez-Ramirez, J

2010-07-15

Spillover of hazardous materials from transport pipelines can lead to catastrophic events with serious and dangerous environmental impact, potential fire events and human fatalities. The problem is more serious for large pipelines when the construction material is under environmental corrosion conditions, as in the petroleum and gas industries. In this way, predictive models can provide a suitable framework for risk evaluation, maintenance policies and substitution procedure design that should be oriented to reduce increased hazards. This work proposes a bayesian probabilistic approach to identify and predict the type of failure (leakage or rupture) for steel pipelines under realistic corroding conditions. In the first step of the modeling process, the mechanical performance of the pipe is considered for establishing conditions under which either leakage or rupture failure can occur. In the second step, experimental burst tests are used to introduce a mean probabilistic boundary defining a region where the type of failure is uncertain. In the boundary vicinity, the failure discrimination is carried out with a probabilistic model where the events are considered as random variables. In turn, the model parameters are estimated with available experimental data and contrasted with a real catastrophic event, showing good discrimination capacity. The results are discussed in terms of policies oriented to inspection and maintenance of large-size pipelines in the oil and gas industry. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides.

Science.gov (United States)

Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M

2016-01-01

This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 332 , 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

Paraboles et catastrophes

CERN Document Server

Thom, René

1983-01-01

René Thom, mathématicien français, membre de l'Académie des Sciences, s'est vu décerner en 1958 la médaille Field, équivalent du Prix Nobel en mathématiques, pour ses créations intellectuelles, la " théorie des catastrophes ", regard nouveau sur toutes les transformations qui adviennent de manière brusque, imprévisible, dramatique. Dans ces entretiens qui vont de la mathématique à l'embryologie, de la linguistique à l'anthropologie et à l'histoire, René Thom expose les grandes lignes de la théorie des catastrophes et passe en revue, avec un esprit à la fois critique et passionné, les grands thèmes scientifiques de notre époque, de la physique atomique à la biologie moléculaire, du " progrès " scientifique et technologique aux connexions complexes entre la société et la science. " Ce petit livre est une extraordinaire réussite en vulgarisation ". (Jean Largeault)

Catastrophe, Gender and Urban Experience, 1648–1920

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

Catastrophizing Interferes with Cognitive Modulation of Pain in Women with Fibromyalgia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellingson, Laura D; Stegner, Aaron J; Schwabacher, Isaac J; Lindheimer, Jacob B; Cook, Dane B

2018-02-21

Pain modulation is a critical function of the nociceptive system that includes the ability to engage descending pain control systems to maintain a functional balance between facilitation and inhibition of incoming sensory stimuli. Dysfunctional pain modulation is associated with increased risk for chronic pain and is characteristic of fibromyalgia (FM). Catastrophizing is also common in FM. However, its influence on pain modulation is poorly understood. To determine the role of catastrophizing on central nervous system processing during pain modulation in FM via examining brain responses and pain sensitivity during an attention-distraction paradigm. Twenty FM patients and 18 healthy controls (CO) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while receiving pain stimuli, administered alone and during distracting cognitive tasks. Pain ratings were assessed after each stimulus. Catastrophizing was assessed with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). The ability to modulate pain during distraction varied among FM patients and was associated with catastrophizing. This was demonstrated by significant positive relationships between PCS scores and pain ratings (P modulation did not differ between FM and CO (P > 0.05). FM patients with higher levels of catastrophizing were less able to distract themselves from pain, indicative of catastrophizing-related impairments in pain modulation. These results suggest that the tendency to catastrophize interacts with attention-resource allocation and may represent a mechanism of chronic pain exacerbation and/or maintenance. Reducing catastrophizing may improve FM symptoms via improving central nervous system regulation of pain.

Failure of the pressure bulkhead of a passenger aircraft - a Case Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salam, I.; Khan, A.N.; Farooque, M.

2011-01-01

The pressure bulkhead of a passenger aircraft ruptured when the aircraft was cruising at a height of 28,000 ft. Because of the sudden rupture, the rear toilets disintegrated and things like toilet rolls, tissue papers, towels, were sucked into the stabilizer compartment, where the entire tail control system was located. The debris damaged the green hydraulic system, ruptured fuel line and jammed the control cables. The damage resulted in the aircraft going into pitch-up mode (take-off position) and almost approached stalling position. The failed part was located near the toilets. Water from the toilets reached in this region due to leakage and penetrated inside the sheets and corrosion started in the presence of stagnant water. This was supplemented by the stresses present on the structure during flight. Stress corrosion started from inner sheet and led to initiation of fatigue. The combined effect of stress corrosion cracking and fatigue resulted in the failure of this sheet. No third stage (catastrophic) failure was observed in the fracture. The absence of catastrophic failure mode in the fractured sheet showed that it stood up to last stage. (author)

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: a clinical review.

Science.gov (United States)

Nayer, Ali; Ortega, Luis M

2014-01-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare life-threatening autoimmune disease characterized by disseminated intravascular thrombosis resulting in multiorgan failure. Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), Google Scholar, PubMed (NLM), LISTA (EBSCO) and Web of Science have been searched. CAPS is due to antiphospholipid antibodies directed against a heterogeneous group of proteins that are associated with phospholipids. These autoantibodies activate endothelial cells, platelets, and immune cells, thereby promoting a proinflammatory and prothrombotic phenotype. Furthermore, antiphospholipid antibodies inhibit anticoagulants, impair fibrinolysis, and activate complements. Although CAPS can affect a variety of organs and tissues, the kidneys, lungs, central nervous system, heart, skin, liver, and gastrointestinal tract are most commonly affected. The systemic inflammatory response syndrome, likely to extensive tissue damage, accompanies CAPS. The most frequent renal manifestations are hypertension, proteinuria, hematuria, and acute renal failure.In the majority of patients with CAPS, a precipitating factor such as infection, surgery, or medication can be identified. Antiphospholipid antibodies such as lupus anticoagulant and antibodies against cardiolipin, β2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin are serological hallmark of CAPS. Laboratory tests often reveal antinuclear antibodies, thrombocytopenia, and anemia. Despite widespread intravascular coagulation, blood films reveal only a small number of schistocytes. In addition, severe thrombocytopenia is uncommon. Histologically, CAPS is characterized by acute thrombotic microangiopathy. CAPS must be distinguished from other forms of thrombotic microangiopathies such as hemolytic-uremic syndrome, thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and heparin-induced thrombocyt openia. CAPS is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Therefore, an aggressive multidisciplinary

Treatment of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome

Science.gov (United States)

Kazzaz, Nayef M.; McCune, W. Joseph; Knight, Jason S.

2016-01-01

Purpose of review Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a severe manifestation of APS. While affecting only 1% of patients with APS, the condition is frequently fatal if not recognized and treated early. Here, we will review the current approach to diagnosis and treatment of CAPS. Recent findings Data from the international “CAPS registry,” spearheaded by the European Forum on Antiphospholipid Antibodies, have improved our understanding of at-risk patients, typical clinical features, and associated/precipitating diagnoses. Current guidelines also continue to support a role for anticoagulants and glucocorticoids as foundation therapy in all patients. Finally, new basic science and case series suggest that novel therapies, such as rituximab and eculizumab warrant further study. Summary Attention to associated diagnoses such as infection and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are critical at the time of diagnosis. All patients should be treated with anticoagulation, corticosteroids, and possibly plasma exchange. In patients with SLE, cyclophosphamide should also be considered. In refractory or relapsing cases, new therapies such as rituximab and possibly eculizumab may be options, but need further study. PMID:26927441

Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions.

Science.gov (United States)

Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

2011-02-01

The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

Catastrophic risks and insurance in farm-level decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ogurtsov, V.

2008-01-01

Keywords: risk perception, risk attitude, catastrophic risk, insurance, farm characteristics, farmer personal characteristics, utility-efficient programming, arable farming, dairy farming

Catastrophic risks can cause severe cash flow problems for farmers or even result into their

Predicting Failure in Early Acute Prosthetic Joint Infection Treated With Debridement, Antibiotics, and Implant Retention: External Validation of the KLIC Score.

Science.gov (United States)

Löwik, Claudia A M; Jutte, Paul C; Tornero, Eduard; Ploegmakers, Joris J W; Knobben, Bas A S; de Vries, Astrid J; Zijlstra, Wierd P; Dijkstra, Baukje; Soriano, Alex; Wouthuyzen-Bakker, Marjan

2018-03-27

Debridement, antibiotics, and implant retention (DAIR) is a widely used treatment modality for early acute prosthetic joint infection (PJI). A preoperative risk score was previously designed for predicting DAIR failure, consisting of chronic renal failure (K), liver cirrhosis (L), index surgery (I), cemented prosthesis (C), and C-reactive protein >115 mg/L (KLIC). The aim of this study was to validate the KLIC score in an external cohort. We retrospectively evaluated patients with early acute PJI treated with DAIR between 2006 and 2016 in 3 Dutch hospitals. Early acute PJI was defined as infection-related death within 60 days after debridement. A total of 386 patients were included. Failure occurred in 148 patients (38.3%). Patients with KLIC scores of ≤2, 2.5-3.5, 4-5, 5.5-6.5, and ≥7 had failure rates of 27.9%, 37.1%, 49.3%, 54.5%, and 85.7%, respectively (P < .001). The receiver-operating characteristic curve showed an area under the curve of 0.64 (95% confidence interval 0.59-0.69). A KLIC score higher than 6 points showed a specificity of 97.9%. The KLIC score is a relatively good preoperative risk score for DAIR failure in patients with early acute PJI and appears to be most useful in clinical practice for patients with low or high KLIC scores. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Avoiding failures of steam turbine discs by automated ultrasonic inspections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morton, J.; Bird, C.R.

1994-01-01

Under certain conditions, stress corrosion cracking can cause catastrophic failure of steam turbine discs. Nuclear Electric has developed a range of inspection techniques for disc keyways, bores, buttons and blade attachments and has accumulated substantial experience on their use on plant. This paper gives examples of the techniques used and discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the techniques applied

Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

2018-05-01

Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. A. Volodicheva

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

Pricing catastrophic bonds for earthquakes in Mexico

OpenAIRE

Cabrera, Brenda López

2006-01-01

After the occurrence of a natural disaster, the reconstruction can be financed with catastrophic bonds (CAT bonds) or reinsurance. For insurers, reinsurers and other corporations CAT bonds provide multi year protection without the credit risk present in reinsurance. For investors CAT bonds offer attractive returns and reduction of portfolio risk, since CAT bonds defaults are uncorrelated with defaults of other securities. As the study of natural catastrophe models plays an important role in t...

Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Motoh, Tsujimura [Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmochi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)

2004-05-01

We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource.

Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Motoh, Tsujimura

2004-01-01

We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

Stagewise cognitive development: an application of catastrophe theory.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Maas, H L; Molenaar, P C

1992-07-01

In this article an overview is given of traditional methodological approaches to stagewise cognitive developmental research. These approaches are evaluated and integrated on the basis of catastrophe theory. In particular, catastrophe theory specifies a set of common criteria for testing the discontinuity hypothesis proposed by Piaget. Separate criteria correspond to distinct methods used in cognitive developmental research. Such criteria are, for instance, the detection of spurts in development, bimodality of test scores, and increased variability of responses during transitional periods. When a genuine stage transition is present, these criteria are expected to be satisfied. A revised catastrophe model accommodating these criteria is proposed for the stage transition in cognitive development from the preoperational to the concrete operational stage.

Failure Analysis and Recovery of a 50 MM Highly Elastic Intermetallic NiTi Ball Bearing for an ISS Application

Science.gov (United States)

DellaCorte, Christopher; Howard, S. Adam; Moore, Lewis E., III

2016-01-01

The ISS Distillation Assembly centrifuge is the pathfinder application for 50mm bore, deep-groove ball bearings made from the highly elastic intermetallic material 60NiTi. Superior corrosion and shock resistance are required to withstand the acidic wastewater exposure and heavy spacecraft launch related loads that challenge conventional steel bearings. During early ground testing one bearing unexpectedly and catastrophically failed after operating for only 200 hours of run time. A second bearing running on the same shaft was completely unaffected. A thorough investigation into the root cause of the failure determined that an excessively tight press-fit of the bearing outer race coupled with NiTis relatively low elastic modulus were key contributing factors. The proposed failure mode was successfully duplicated by experiment. To further corroborate the root cause theory, a successful bearing life test using improved installation practices (selective fitting) was conducted. The results show that NiTi bearings are suitable for space applications provided that care is taken to accommodate their unique material characteristics.

Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

Science.gov (United States)

van de Ven, W P; Schut, F T

1994-11-01

In 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care). However, there are two arguments to exclude some of the catastrophic risks from the competitive insurance market, at least during the implementation process of the reforms. Firstly, the prospects for a workable system of risk-adjusted payments to the insurers that should take away the incentives for cream skimming are, at least during the next 5 years, more favorable for the non-catastrophic risks than for the catastrophic risks. Secondly, even if a workable system of risk-adjusted payments can be developed, the problem of quality skimping may be relevant for some of the catastrophic risks, but not for non-catastrophic risks. By 'quality skimping' we mean the reduction of the quality of care to a level which is below the minimum level that is acceptable to society. After 5 years of health care reforms in the Netherlands new insights have resulted in a growing support to confine the implementation of the reforms to the non-catastrophic risks. In drawing (and redrawing) the exact boundaries between different regulatory regimes for catastrophic and non-catastrophic risks, the expected benefits of a cost-effective substitution of care have to be weighted against the potential harm caused by cream skimming and quality skimping.

Indirect Catastrophic Injuries in Olympic Styles of Wrestling in Iran

OpenAIRE

Kordi, Ramin; Ziaee, Vahid; Rostami, Mohsen; Wallace, W. Angus

2011-01-01

Background: Data on indirect catastrophic injuries in wrestling are scarce. Objectives: To develop a profile of indirect catastrophic injuries in international styles of wrestling and to describe possible risk factors. Study Design: Retrospective case series; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Indirect catastrophic injuries that occurred in wrestling clubs in Iran from July 1998 to June 2005 were identified by contacting several sources. The cases were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The injur...

Reactor accidents and nuclear catastrophes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchhoff, R.; Linde, H.J.

1979-01-01

Assuming some preliminary knowledge of the fundamentals of atomic physics, the book describes the effects of ionizing radiation on the human organism. In order to assess the potential hazards of reactor accidents and the extent of a nuclear catastrophe, the technology of power generation in nuclear power stations is presented together with its potential dangers as well as the physical and medical processes occurring during a nuclear weapons explosion. The special medical aspects are presented which range from first aid in the case of a catastrophe to the accute radiation syndrome, the treatment of burns to the therapy of late radiolesions. Finally, it is confirmed that the treatment of radiation injured persons does not give rise to basically new medical problems. (orig./HP) [de

Microtubule catastrophe and rescue.

Science.gov (United States)

Gardner, Melissa K; Zanic, Marija; Howard, Jonathon

2013-02-01

Microtubules are long cylindrical polymers composed of tubulin subunits. In cells, microtubules play an essential role in architecture and motility. For example, microtubules give shape to cells, serve as intracellular transport tracks, and act as key elements in important cellular structures such as axonemes and mitotic spindles. To accomplish these varied functions, networks of microtubules in cells are very dynamic, continuously remodeling through stochastic length fluctuations at the ends of individual microtubules. The dynamic behavior at the end of an individual microtubule is termed 'dynamic instability'. This behavior manifests itself by periods of persistent microtubule growth interrupted by occasional switching to rapid shrinkage (called microtubule 'catastrophe'), and then by switching back from shrinkage to growth (called microtubule 'rescue'). In this review, we summarize recent findings which provide new insights into the mechanisms of microtubule catastrophe and rescue, and discuss the impact of these findings in regards to the role of microtubule dynamics inside of cells. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shelby L Langer

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

Neural mechanisms underlying catastrophic failure in human-machine interaction during aerial navigation

Science.gov (United States)

Saproo, Sameer; Shih, Victor; Jangraw, David C.; Sajda, Paul

2016-12-01

Objective. We investigated the neural correlates of workload buildup in a fine visuomotor task called the boundary avoidance task (BAT). The BAT has been known to induce naturally occurring failures of human-machine coupling in high performance aircraft that can potentially lead to a crash—these failures are termed pilot induced oscillations (PIOs). Approach. We recorded EEG and pupillometry data from human subjects engaged in a flight BAT simulated within a virtual 3D environment. Main results. We find that workload buildup in a BAT can be successfully decoded from oscillatory features in the electroencephalogram (EEG). Information in delta, theta, alpha, beta, and gamma spectral bands of the EEG all contribute to successful decoding, however gamma band activity with a lateralized somatosensory topography has the highest contribution, while theta band activity with a fronto-central topography has the most robust contribution in terms of real-world usability. We show that the output of the spectral decoder can be used to predict PIO susceptibility. We also find that workload buildup in the task induces pupil dilation, the magnitude of which is significantly correlated with the magnitude of the decoded EEG signals. These results suggest that PIOs may result from the dysregulation of cortical networks such as the locus coeruleus (LC)—anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) circuit. Significance. Our findings may generalize to similar control failures in other cases of tight man-machine coupling where gains and latencies in the control system must be inferred and compensated for by the human operators. A closed-loop intervention using neurophysiological decoding of workload buildup that targets the LC-ACC circuit may positively impact operator performance in such situations.

Mechanical Ventilation during Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation in Patients with Acute Severe Respiratory Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhongheng; Gu, Wan-Jie; Chen, Kun; Ni, Hongying

2017-01-01

Conventionally, a substantial number of patients with acute respiratory failure require mechanical ventilation (MV) to avert catastrophe of hypoxemia and hypercapnia. However, mechanical ventilation per se can cause lung injury, accelerating the disease progression. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) provides an alternative to rescue patients with severe respiratory failure that conventional mechanical ventilation fails to maintain adequate gas exchange. The physiology behind ECMO and its interaction with MV were reviewed. Next, we discussed the timing of ECMO initiation based on the risks and benefits of ECMO. During the running of ECMO, the protective ventilation strategy can be employed without worrying about catastrophic hypoxemia and carbon dioxide retention. There is a large body of evidence showing that protective ventilation with low tidal volume, high positive end-expiratory pressure, and prone positioning can provide benefits on mortality outcome. More recently, there is an increasing popularity on the use of awake and spontaneous breathing for patients undergoing ECMO, which is thought to be beneficial in terms of rehabilitation.

Mechanical Ventilation during Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation in Patients with Acute Severe Respiratory Failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhongheng Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Conventionally, a substantial number of patients with acute respiratory failure require mechanical ventilation (MV to avert catastrophe of hypoxemia and hypercapnia. However, mechanical ventilation per se can cause lung injury, accelerating the disease progression. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO provides an alternative to rescue patients with severe respiratory failure that conventional mechanical ventilation fails to maintain adequate gas exchange. The physiology behind ECMO and its interaction with MV were reviewed. Next, we discussed the timing of ECMO initiation based on the risks and benefits of ECMO. During the running of ECMO, the protective ventilation strategy can be employed without worrying about catastrophic hypoxemia and carbon dioxide retention. There is a large body of evidence showing that protective ventilation with low tidal volume, high positive end-expiratory pressure, and prone positioning can provide benefits on mortality outcome. More recently, there is an increasing popularity on the use of awake and spontaneous breathing for patients undergoing ECMO, which is thought to be beneficial in terms of rehabilitation.

'Performative narrativity': Palestinian identity and the performance of catastrophe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Saloul, I.

2008-01-01

The day Israel annually celebrates as its "Day of Independence" Palestinians commemorate as their day of catastrophe (al-nakba). To most Palestinians, the catastrophic loss of Palestine in 1948 represents the climactic formative event of their lives. In the aftermath of this loss, the Palestinian

The Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale: a useful instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Miró, Jordi; Nieto, Rubén; Huguet, Anna

2008-05-01

The main aims of this work were to test the psychometric properties of the Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) and to assess the usefulness of the scale when used with whiplash patients. This article reports results from 2 complementary studies. In the first one, the PCS was administered to 280 students and 146 chronic pain patients to examine the psychometric properties of a new Catalan version of the instrument. A confirmatory factor analysis supported a second-order structure, in which 3 second-order factors (ie, rumination, helplessness, and magnification) load in a higher-order factor (ie, catastrophizing). The reliability of the Catalan version was supported by an acceptable internal consistency and test-retest values. Validity was supported by the correlations found among the PCS and pain intensity, pain interference, and depression. The objective of the second study was to evaluate the PCS when used with whiplash patients. In this second study, 141 patients with whiplash disorders participated. In general, the psychometric properties of the PCS were found appropriate, with factor analysis supporting the structure described in patients with chronic pain. Our data suggest that the PCS is a good instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients. The usefulness of the PCS in whiplash disorders has been explored in this study. Results of our work show that the PCS can be a very useful tool to assess catastrophic thinking about pain in whiplash patients.

Failure Forecasting in Triaxially Stressed Sandstones

Science.gov (United States)

Crippen, A.; Bell, A. F.; Curtis, A.; Main, I. G.

2017-12-01

Precursory signals to fracturing events have been observed to follow power-law accelerations in spatial, temporal, and size distributions leading up to catastrophic failure. In previous studies this behavior was modeled using Voight's relation of a geophysical precursor in order to perform `hindcasts' by solving for failure onset time. However, performing this analysis in retrospect creates a bias, as we know an event happened, when it happened, and we can search data for precursors accordingly. We aim to remove this retrospective bias, thereby allowing us to make failure forecasts in real-time in a rock deformation laboratory. We triaxially compressed water-saturated 100 mm sandstone cores (Pc= 25MPa, Pp = 5MPa, σ = 1.0E-5 s-1) to the point of failure while monitoring strain rate, differential stress, AEs, and continuous waveform data. Here we compare the current `hindcast` methods on synthetic and our real laboratory data. We then apply these techniques to increasing fractions of the data sets to observe the evolution of the failure forecast time with precursory data. We discuss these results as well as our plan to mitigate false positives and minimize errors for real-time application. Real-time failure forecasting could revolutionize the field of hazard mitigation of brittle failure processes by allowing non-invasive monitoring of civil structures, volcanoes, and possibly fault zones.

Avoiding failures of steam turbine discs by automated ultrasonic inspections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bird, C.R.; Morton, J.

1994-01-01

Under certain conditions, stress corrosion cracking can cause catastrophic failure of steam turbine discs. Nuclear Electric has developed a range of inspection techniques for disc keyways, bores, buttons and blade attachments and has accumulated substantial experience on their use on plant. This paper gives examples of the techniques used and discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the techniques applied. (Author)

Rescue surgery post-failure of the radiotherapy in early glottis carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dodero, Alberto; Piazza, Carlos; Ugarte, Marcelo; Kulay, Yolanda

2006-01-01

The treatment of the laryngeal carcinoma is controversial in the otolaryngology literature; in glottis cancer that can be managed with radiotherapy, conservative laryngeal surgery and micro-endoscope by laser. At present time, the main objective in the treatment of the early glottis cancer is the control of the tumor and preservation of a good voice. In small injuries, the surgery and the radiotherapy offer equivalent cure rates. The handling of the failure of radiotherapy is controversial; the options go from the resection endoscope with laser, to the total laryngectomy, with local controls [es

A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

CERN Document Server

Kent, A

2004-01-01

Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

[Bioethics in catastrophe situations such as earthquakes].

Science.gov (United States)

León, C Francisco Javier

2012-01-01

A catastrophe of the magnitude of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Chile not long ago, forces us to raise some questions that we will try to answer from a philosophical, ethical and responsibility viewpoints. An analysis of the basic principles of bioethics is also justified. A natural catastrophe is not, by itself, moral or immoral, fair or unfair. However, its consequences could certainly be regarded as such, depending on whether they could have been prevented or mitigated. We will identify those individuals, who have the ethical responsibility to attend the victims and the ethical principles that must guide the tasks of healthcare and psychological support teams. The minimal indispensable actions to obtain an adequate social and legal protection of vulnerable people, must be defined according to international guidelines. These reflections are intended to improve the responsibility of the State and all the community, to efficiently prevent and repair the material and psychological consequences of such a catastrophe.

Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

Slope Failure Prediction and Early Warning Awareness Education for Reducing Landslides Casualty in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Koay, S. P.; Tay, L. T.; Fukuoka, H.; Koyama, T.; Sakai, N.; Jamaludin, S. B.; Lateh, H.

2015-12-01

Northeast monsoon causes heavy rain in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia from November to March, every year. During this monsoon period, besides the happening of flood along east coast, landslides also causes millions of Malaysian Ringgit economical losses. Hence, it is essential to study the prediction of slope failure to prevent the casualty of landslides happening. In our study, we introduce prediction method of the accumulated rainfall affecting the stability of the slope. If the curve, in the graph, which is presented by rainfall intensity versus accumulated rainfall, crosses over the critical line, the condition of the slope is considered in high risk where the data are calculated and sent from rain gauge in the site via internet. If the possibility of slope failure is going high, the alert message will be sent out to the authorities for decision making on road block or setting the warning light at the road side. Besides road block and warning light, we propose to disseminate short message, to pre-registered mobile phone user, to notify the public for easing the traffic jam and avoiding unnecessary public panic. Prediction is not enough to prevent the casualty. Early warning awareness of the public is very important to reduce the casualty of landslides happening. IT technology does not only play a main role in disseminating information, early warning awareness education, by using IT technology, should be conducted, in schools, to give early warning awareness on natural hazard since childhood. Knowing the pass history on landslides occurrence will gain experience on the landslides happening. Landslides historical events with coordinate information are stored in database. The public can browse these historical events via internet. By referring to such historical landslides events, the public may know where did landslides happen before and the possibility of slope failure occurrence again is considered high. Simulation of rainfall induced slope failure mechanism

Early administration of tolvaptan preserves renal function in elderly patients with acute decompensated heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Kimura, Kazuhiro; Momose, Tomoyasu; Hasegawa, Tomoya; Morita, Takehiro; Misawa, Takuo; Motoki, Hirohiko; Izawa, Atsushi; Ikeda, Uichi

2016-05-01

Loop diuretics used in the treatment of heart failure often induce renal impairment. This study was conducted in order to evaluate the renal protective effect of adding tolvaptan (TLV), compared to increasing the furosemide (FRM) dose, for the treatment of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in a real-world elderly patient population. This randomized controlled trial enrolled 52 consecutive hospitalized patients (age 83.4±9.6 years) with ADHF. The patients were assigned alternately to either the TLV group (TLV plus conventional treatment, n=26) or the FRM group (increasing the dose of FRM, n=26). TLV was administered within 24h from admission. The incidence of worsening renal function (WRF) within 7 days from admission was significantly lower in the TLV group (26.9% vs. 57.7%, p=0.025). Furthermore, the rates of occurrence of persistent and late-onset (≥5 days from admission) WRF were significantly lower in the TLV group. Persistent and late-onset WRF were significantly associated with a higher incidence of cardiac death or readmission for worsening heart failure in the 90 days following discharge, compared to transient and early-onset WRF, respectively. Early administration of TLV, compared to increased FRM dosage, reduces the incidence of WRF in real-world elderly ADHF patients. In addition, it reduces the occurrence of 'worse' WRF-persistent and late-onset WRF-which are associated with increased rates of cardiac death or readmission for worsening heart failure in the 90 days after discharge. Copyright © 2015 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal: a cross-sectional survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Eiko; Gilmour, Stuart; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Gautam, Ghan Shyam; Shrestha, Pradeep Krishna; Shibuya, Kenji

2014-10-01

To determine the incidence of - and illnesses commonly associated with - catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal. We did a cross-sectional population-based survey in five municipalities of Kathmandu Valley between November 2011 and January 2012. For each household surveyed, out-of-pocket spending on health in the previous 30 days that exceeded 10% of the household's total expenditure over the same period was considered to be catastrophic. We estimated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure. We identified the illnesses most commonly associated with such expenditure using a Poisson regression model and assessed the distribution of expenditure by economic quintile of households using the concentration index. Overall, 284 of the 1997 households studied in Kathmandu, i.e. 13.8% after adjustment by sampling weight, reported catastrophic health expenditure in the 30 days before the survey. After adjusting for confounders, this expenditure was found to be associated with injuries, particularly those resulting from road traffic accidents. Catastrophic expenditure by households in the poorest quintile were associated with at least one episode of diabetes, asthma or heart disease. In an urban area of Nepal, catastrophic household expenditure on health was mostly associated with injuries and noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes and asthma. Throughout Nepal, interventions for the control and management of noncommunicable diseases and the prevention of road traffic accidents should be promoted. A phased introduction of health insurance should also reduce the incidence of catastrophic household expenditure.

Significance of the actual nonlinear slope geometry for catastrophic failure in submarine landslides.

Science.gov (United States)

Puzrin, Alexander M; Gray, Thomas E; Hill, Andrew J

2015-03-08

A simple approach to slope stability analysis of naturally occurring, mild nonlinear slopes is proposed through extension of shear band propagation (SBP) theory. An initial weak zone appears in the steepest part of the slope where the combined action of gravity and seismic loads overcomes the degraded peak shear resistance of the soil. If the length of this steepest part is larger than the critical length, the shear band will propagate into the quasi-stable parts of the slope, where the gravitational and seismically induced shear stresses are smaller than the peak but larger than the residual shear strength of the soil. Growth of a shear band is strongly dependent on the shape of the slope, seismic parameters and the strength of soil and less dependent on the slope inclination and the sensitivity of clay. For the slope surface with faster changing inclination, the criterion is more sensitive to the changes of the parameters. Accounting for the actual nonlinear slope geometry eliminates the main challenge of the SBP approach-determination of the length of the initial weak zone, because the slope geometry can be readily obtained from submarine site investigations. It also helps to identify conditions for the early arrest of the shear band, before failure in the sliding layer or a change in loading or excess pore water pressures occurs. The difference in the size of a landslide predicted by limiting equilibrium and SBP approaches can reach orders of magnitude, potentially providing an explanation for the immense dimensions of many observed submarine landslides that may be caused by local factors acting over a limited portion of the slope.

Early Shear Failure Prediction in Incremental Sheet Forming Process Using FEM and ANN

Science.gov (United States)

Moayedfar, Majid; Hanaei, Hengameh; Majdi Rani, Ahmad; Musa, Mohd Azam Bin; Sadegh Momeni, Mohammad

2018-03-01

The application of incremental sheet forming process as a rapid forming technique is rising in variety of industries such as aerospace, automotive and biomechanical purposes. However, the sheet failure is a big challenge in this process which leads wasting lots of materials. Hence, this study tried to propose a method to predict the early sheet failure in this process using mathematical solution. For the feasibility of the study, design of experiment with the respond surface method is employed to extract a set of experiments data for the simulation. The significant forming parameters were recognized and their integration was used for prediction system. Then, the results were inserted to the artificial neural network as input parameters to predict a vast range of applicable parameters avoiding sheet failure in ISF. The value of accuracy R2 ∼0.93 was obtained and the maximum sheet stretch in the depth of 25mm were recorded. The figures generate from the trend of interaction between effective parameters were provided for future studies.

An Evolutionary Algorithm for Feature Subset Selection in Hard Disk Drive Failure Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Bhasin, Harpreet

2011-01-01

Hard disk drives are used in everyday life to store critical data. Although they are reliable, failure of a hard disk drive can be catastrophic, especially in applications like medicine, banking, air traffic control systems, missile guidance systems, computer numerical controlled machines, and more. The use of Self-Monitoring, Analysis and…

Hemorrhagic Stroke Associated with Pulmonary Edema and Catastrophic Cardiac Failure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiun-Chang Lee

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Cerebral arteriovenous fistula (AVF is a vascular malformation that is rare in the pediatric population. Older children with cerebral AVF tend to present with neurologic problems related to intracranial venous hypertension or intracranial hemorrhage. Cardiac and pulmonary complications following acute neurologic injury such as subarachnoid hemorrhage are common in adults, but are rarely reported in children. However, complications have been reported in cases of enterovirus 71 rhombencephalitis in infants and children and can cause high morbidity and mortality. Here, we report a 14-year-old boy who presented with cardiac failure associated with pulmonary edema following cerebral hemorrhagic stroke due to AVF. After aggressive investigation and management, we intervened before significant hypoxia and hypotension developed, potentially reducing the risk of long-term adverse neurologic consequences in this patient.

Launch Vehicle Failure Dynamics and Abort Triggering Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, John M.; Hill, Ashely D.; Beard, Bernard B.

2011-01-01

Launch vehicle ascent is a time of high risk for an on-board crew. There are many types of failures that can kill the crew if the crew is still on-board when the failure becomes catastrophic. For some failure scenarios, there is plenty of time for the crew to be warned and to depart, whereas in some there is insufficient time for the crew to escape. There is a large fraction of possible failures for which time is of the essence and a successful abort is possible if the detection and action happens quickly enough. This paper focuses on abort determination based primarily on data already available from the GN&C system. This work is the result of failure analysis efforts performed during the Ares I launch vehicle development program. Derivation of attitude and attitude rate abort triggers to ensure that abort occurs as quickly as possible when needed, but that false positives are avoided, forms a major portion of the paper. Some of the potential failure modes requiring use of these triggers are described, along with analysis used to determine the success rate of getting the crew off prior to vehicle demise.

Early Caffeine Prophylaxis and Risk of Failure of Initial Continuous Positive Airway Pressure in Very Low Birth Weight Infants.

Science.gov (United States)

Patel, Ravi M; Zimmerman, Kanecia; Carlton, David P; Clark, Reese; Benjamin, Daniel K; Smith, P Brian

2017-11-01

To test the hypothesis that early caffeine treatment on the day of birth, compared with later treatment in very low birth weight (VLBW, caffeine in the first week of life. We used multivariable conditional logistic regression to compare the risk of CPAP failure, defined as invasive mechanical ventilation or surfactant therapy on DOL 1-6, by timing of caffeine treatment as either early (initiation on DOL 0) or routine (initiation on DOL 1-6). We identified 11 133 infants; 4528 (41%) received early caffeine and 6605 (59%) received routine caffeine. Median gestational age was lower in the early caffeine group, 29 weeks (25th, 75th percentiles; 28, 30) vs the routine caffeine group, 30 weeks (29, 31); P caffeine groups: 22% vs 21%; adjusted OR = 1.05 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.18). Early caffeine treatment on the day of birth was not associated with a decreased risk of CPAP failure in the first week of life for VLBW infants initially treated with CPAP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Noise diagnosis - a method for early detection of failures in a nuclear plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brinckmann, H.F.

1981-01-01

Noise diagnosis constitutes one method for early detection of plant failures. The method is based on the fact that nearly all undesired processes in a nuclear power plant make a measurable contribution to the noise portion of signals. Well-known examples of undesired processes in pressurized water reactors include core-barrel movement, the vibration of control elements, the appearance of loose parts in the coolant flow, and the process of coolant boiling. Each of these processes has been implicated in past nuclear plant failures. In the German Democratic Republic (GDR) P. Liewers and his colleagues have introduced noise analysis systems into the primary circuit of WWER-440 pressurized water reactors (PWR). The most progressive version (RAS-II) has become a prototype for research and routine investigations. This system is described. (author)

Spatio-temporal changes in river bank mass failures in the Lockyer Valley, Queensland, Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Chris; Croke, Jacky; Grove, James; Khanal, Giri

2013-06-01

Wet-flow river bank failure processes are poorly understood relative to the more commonly studied processes of fluvial entrainment and gravity-induced mass failures. Using high resolution topographic data (LiDAR) and near coincident aerial photography, this study documents the downstream distribution of river bank mass failures which occurred as a result of a catastrophic flood in the Lockyer Valley in January 2011. In addition, this distribution is compared with wet flow mass failure features from previous large floods. The downstream analysis of these two temporal data sets indicated that they occur across a range of river lengths, catchment areas, bank heights and angles and do not appear to be scale-dependent or spatially restricted to certain downstream zones. The downstream trends of each bank failure distribution show limited spatial overlap with only 17% of wet flows common to both distributions. The modification of these features during the catastrophic flood of January 2011 also indicated that such features tend to form at some 'optimum' shape and show limited evidence of subsequent enlargement even when flow and energy conditions within the banks and channel were high. Elevation changes indicate that such features show evidence for infilling during subsequent floods. The preservation of these features in the landscape for a period of at least 150 years suggests that the seepage processes dominant in their initial formation appear to have limited role in their continuing enlargement over time. No evidence of gully extension or headwall retreat is evident. It is estimated that at least 12 inundation events would be required to fill these failures based on the average net elevation change recorded for the 2011 event. Existing conceptual models of downstream bank erosion process zones may need to consider a wider array of mass failure processes to accommodate for wet flow failures.

The Effectiveness of Catastrophe Bonds in Portfolio Diversification

OpenAIRE

Mariani, Massimo; Amoruso, Paola

2016-01-01

The rapid growth of catastrophe bonds in financial markets is due to increasing environmental disasters and consequent economic losses, barely covered by insurance and reinsurance companies. These securities represent an effective solution, allowing the risk transfer to the capital market. The objective of this paper is to prove real advantages of the investor who operates in this market segment, in terms of portfolio diversification. The present work indeed shows how investing in catastrophe...

Bayesian reliability demonstration for failure-free periods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coolen, F.P.A. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Science Laboratories, University of Durham, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: frank.coolen@durham.ac.uk; Coolen-Schrijner, P. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Science Laboratories, University of Durham, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Rahrouh, M. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Science Laboratories, University of Durham, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE (United Kingdom)

2005-04-01

We study sample sizes for testing as required for Bayesian reliability demonstration in terms of failure-free periods after testing, under the assumption that tests lead to zero failures. For the process after testing, we consider both deterministic and random numbers of tasks, including tasks arriving as Poisson processes. It turns out that the deterministic case is worst in the sense that it requires most tasks to be tested. We consider such reliability demonstration for a single type of task, as well as for multiple types of tasks to be performed by one system. We also consider the situation, where tests of different types of tasks may have different costs, aiming at minimal expected total costs, assuming that failure in the process would be catastrophic, in the sense that the process would be discontinued. Generally, these inferences are very sensitive to the choice of prior distribution, so one must be very careful with interpretation of non-informativeness of priors.

Bayesian reliability demonstration for failure-free periods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coolen, F.P.A.; Coolen-Schrijner, P.; Rahrouh, M.

2005-01-01

We study sample sizes for testing as required for Bayesian reliability demonstration in terms of failure-free periods after testing, under the assumption that tests lead to zero failures. For the process after testing, we consider both deterministic and random numbers of tasks, including tasks arriving as Poisson processes. It turns out that the deterministic case is worst in the sense that it requires most tasks to be tested. We consider such reliability demonstration for a single type of task, as well as for multiple types of tasks to be performed by one system. We also consider the situation, where tests of different types of tasks may have different costs, aiming at minimal expected total costs, assuming that failure in the process would be catastrophic, in the sense that the process would be discontinued. Generally, these inferences are very sensitive to the choice of prior distribution, so one must be very careful with interpretation of non-informativeness of priors

An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiangcheng; Zhang, Chunmin; Liu, Jifa; Li, Zhen; Yang, Xuan

2018-04-01

A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value.

Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

2009-01-01

This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

Factors associated with early failure of arteriovenous fistulae for haemodialysis access.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, V; Ward, R; Taylor, J; Selvakumar, S; How, T V; Bakran, A

1996-08-01

The radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula remains the method of choice for haemodialysis access. In order to assess their suitability for fistula formation, the radial arteries and cephalic veins were examined preoperatively by ultrasound colour flow scanner in conjunction with a pulse-generated run-off system. Intraoperative blood flow was measured after construction of the fistulae. Post-operative follow-up was performed at various intervals to monitor the development of the fistulae. Radial artery and cephalic vein diameter less than 1.6 mm was associated with early fistula failure. The intraoperative fistula blood flow did not correlate with the outcome of the operation probably due to vessel spasm from manipulation. However, blood flow velocities measured non-invasively 1 day after the operation were significantly lower in fistulae that failed early compared with those that were adequate for haemodialysis. Most of the increase in fistula diameter and blood flow occur within the first 2 weeks of surgery.

Key indicator tools for shallow slope failure assessment using soil chemical property signatures and soil colour variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Othman, Rashidi; Hasni, Shah Irani; Baharuddin, Zainul Mukrim; Hashim, Khairusy Syakirin Has-Yun; Mahamod, Lukman Hakim

2017-10-01

Slope failure has become a major concern in Malaysia due to the rapid development and urbanisation in the country. It poses severe threats to any highway construction industry, residential areas, natural resources and tourism activities. The extent of damages that resulted from this catastrophe can be lessened if a long-term early warning system to predict landslide prone areas is implemented. Thus, this study aims to characterise the relationship between Oxisols properties and soil colour variables to be manipulated as key indicators to forecast shallow slope failure. The concentration of each soil property in slope soil was evaluated from two different localities that consist of 120 soil samples from stable and unstable slopes located along the North-South Highway (PLUS) and East-West Highway (LPT). Analysis of variance established highly significant difference (P shallow slope failure were high value of L*(62), low values of c* (20) and h* (66), low concentration of iron (53 mg kg -1 ) and aluminium oxide (37 mg kg -1 ), low soil TOC (0.5%), low CEC (3.6 cmol/kg), slightly acidic soil pH (4.9), high amount of sand fraction (68%) and low amount of clay fraction (20%).

Pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of 45 patients from the "CAPS Registry".

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Gregory, Simone; de Meis, Ernesto; Rodrigues, Carlos Ewerton Maia; Aikawa, Nádia Emi; de Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Springer, Janusz; Niedzwiecki, Maciej; Espinosa, Gerard

2014-02-01

Given the lack of information about catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric patients, the objective of the current study was to describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric patients with catastrophic APS and compare them with the adult patients with catastrophic APS. We identified patients who were under 18years of age at time of catastrophic APS diagnosis included in the international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry). Their main demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome were described and compared with those of adult patients with catastrophic APS. From the 446 patients included in the CAPS Registry as of May 2013, 45 (10.3%) patients developed 46 catastrophic events before 18years of age (one patient presented two episodes). Overall, 32 (71.1%) patients were female and the mean age was 11.5±4.6years (range, 3months-18years). A total of 31 (68.9%) patients suffered from primary APS and 13 (28.9%) from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The main differences between the two groups of patients were the higher prevalence of infections as precipitating factor for catastrophic event in the pediatric population (60.9% versus 26.8% in the adult population, p<0.001) and of peripheral vessel thrombosis (52.2% versus 34.3%, p=0.017). In addition, catastrophic APS was the first manifestation of APS more frequently in pediatric patients (86.6% versus 45.2%, p<0.001). Interestingly, pediatric patients showed a trend of lower mortality, although the difference was not statistically significant (26.1% versus 40.2%; odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-3.79; p=0.063). No differences were found neither in the laboratory features nor in the isolated or combination treatments between groups. Catastrophic APS in pediatric patients is a rare disease. There are minimal differences in the clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and

Protocols of a catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stscherbak, J.

1988-01-01

In unusually frank terms the author, a journalist and epidemiologist, describes the catastrophe of Chernobyl as the 'most pathetic and important' experience of the Soviet people after World War II. Documents, interviews and statements of persons concerned trace the disaster of those days that surpasses imagination and describe how individual persons witnessed the coming true of visions of terror. (orig./HSCH) [de

Cosmic Catastrophes

Science.gov (United States)

Wheeler, J. Craig

2014-08-01

Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

On-Board Particulate Filter Failure Prevention and Failure Diagnostics Using Radio Frequency Sensing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sappok, Alex [Filter Sensing Technologies; Ragaller, Paul [Filter Sensing Technologies; Herman, Andrew [CTS Corporation; Bromberg, L. [Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Prikhodko, Vitaly Y [ORNL; Parks, II, James E [ORNL; Storey, John Morse [ORNL

2017-01-01

The increasing use of diesel and gasoline particulate filters requires advanced on-board diagnostics (OBD) to prevent and detect filter failures and malfunctions. Early detection of upstream (engine-out) malfunctions is paramount to preventing irreversible damage to downstream aftertreatment system components. Such early detection can mitigate the failure of the particulate filter resulting in the escape of emissions exceeding permissible limits and extend the component life. However, despite best efforts at early detection and filter failure prevention, the OBD system must also be able to detect filter failures when they occur. In this study, radio frequency (RF) sensors were used to directly monitor the particulate filter state of health for both gasoline particulate filter (GPF) and diesel particulate filter (DPF) applications. The testing included controlled engine dynamometer evaluations, which characterized soot slip from various filter failure modes, as well as on-road fleet vehicle tests. The results show a high sensitivity to detect conditions resulting in soot leakage from the particulate filter, as well as potential for direct detection of structural failures including internal cracks and melted regions within the filter media itself. Furthermore, the measurements demonstrate, for the first time, the capability to employ a direct and continuous monitor of particulate filter diagnostics to both prevent and detect potential failure conditions in the field.

Ergospirometry and Echocardiography in Early Stage of Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction and in Healthy Individuals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo Lima Garcia

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is a syndrome characterized by changes in diastolic function; it is more prevalent among the elderly, women, and individuals with systemic hypertension (SH and diabetes mellitus. However, in its early stages, there are no signs of congestion and it is identified in tests by adverse remodeling, decreased exercise capacity and diastolic dysfunction. Objective: To compare doppler, echocardiographic (Echo, and cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET variables - ergospirometry variables - between two population samples: one of individuals in the early stage of this syndrome, and the other of healthy individuals. Methods: Twenty eight outpatients diagnosed with heart failure according to Framingham’s criteria, ejection fraction > 50% and diastolic dysfunction according to the european society of cardiology (ESC, and 24 healthy individuals underwent Echo and CPET. Results: The group of patients showed indexed atrial volume and left ventricular mass as well as E/E’ and ILAV/A´ ratios significantly higher, in addition to a significant reduction in peak oxygen consumption and increased VE/VCO2 slope, even having similar left ventricular sizes in comparison to those of the sample of healthy individuals. Conclusion: There are significant differences between the structural and functional variables analyzed by Echo and CPET when comparing two population samples: one of patients in the early stage of heart failure with ejection fraction greater than or equal to 50% and another of healthy individuals.

Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

2015-08-25

The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

Fukushinobyl, the impossible catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boceno, Laurent

2012-01-01

With the emergence of variety of health and environmental crisis or catastrophes (Seveso, Bhopal, Chernobyl, AIDS, contaminated blood, mad cow, influenzas), the author proposes thoughts about the fact that it seems we are not in the era of industrial societies any longer, but in that of societies of risk. He more particularly focuses on Chernobyl and Fukushima to analyse how a social framework is built up to integrate forms of institutionalisation of multifaceted vulnerability, these institutional logics becoming latent social pathologies. In this respect, he more particularly discusses the catastrophic share of nuclear. He shows how what can be considered as a risk is socialised, dissimulated by priority, and then addresses the management of consequences of Chernobyl and how it is used to address the Japanese present situation. He notably outlines a kind of collusion between the WHO and the IAEA about nuclear issues. In his respect, he recalls a statement made by the WHO saying that, from a mental health point of view, the most satisfying solution for the future of pacific uses of nuclear energy would be the emergence of a new generation who would have learned to cope with ignorance and uncertainty

Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Louis Anthony

2012-11-01

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Failure Analysis and Recovery of a 50-mm Highly Elastic Intermetallic NiTi Ball Bearing for an ISS Application

Science.gov (United States)

DellaCorte, Christopher; Howard, S. Adam; Moore, Lewis

2016-01-01

Ball bearings used inside the ISS Distillation Assembly centrifuge require superior corrosion and shock resistance to withstand acidic wastewater exposure and heavy spacecraft launch related loads. These requirements challenge conventional steel bearings and provide an ideal pathfinder application for 50-mm bore, deep-groove ball bearings made from the corrosion immune and highly elastic intermetallic material 60NiTi. During early ground testing in 2014 one 60NiTi bearing unexpectedly and catastrophically failed after operating for only 200 hr. A second bearing running on the same shaft was completely unaffected. An investigation into the root cause of the failure determined that an excessively tight press fit of the bearing outer race coupled with NiTi's relatively low elastic modulus were key contributing factors. The proposed failure mode was successfully replicated by experiment. To further corroborate the root cause theory, a successful bearing life test using improved installation practices (selective fitting) was conducted. The results show that NiTi bearings are suitable for space applications provided that care is taken to accommodate their unique material characteristics.

Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

CERN Document Server

1994-01-01

Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) on Brain Connectivity Supporting Catastrophizing in Fibromyalgia.

Science.gov (United States)

Lazaridou, Asimina; Kim, Jieun; Cahalan, Christine M; Loggia, Marco L; Franceschelli, Olivia; Berna, Chantal; Schur, Peter; Napadow, Vitaly; Edwards, Robert R

2017-03-01

Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, common pain disorder characterized by hyperalgesia. A key mechanism by which cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) fosters improvement in pain outcomes is via reductions in hyperalgesia and pain-related catastrophizing, a dysfunctional set of cognitive-emotional processes. However, the neural underpinnings of these CBT effects are unclear. Our aim was to assess CBT's effects on the brain circuitry underlying hyperalgesia in FM patients, and to explore the role of treatment-associated reduction in catastrophizing as a contributor to normalization of pain-relevant brain circuitry and clinical improvement. In total, 16 high-catastrophizing FM patients were enrolled in the study and randomized to 4 weeks of individual treatment with either CBT or a Fibromyalgia Education (control) condition. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans evaluated functional connectivity between key pain-processing brain regions at baseline and posttreatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, posttreatment, and 6-month follow-up. Catastrophizing correlated with increased resting state functional connectivity between S1 and anterior insula. The CBT group showed larger reductions (compared with the education group) in catastrophizing at posttreatment (PCBT produced significant reductions in both pain and catastrophizing at the 6-month follow-up (PCBT group also showed reduced resting state connectivity between S1 and anterior/medial insula at posttreatment; these reductions in resting state connectivity were associated with concurrent treatment-related reductions in catastrophizing. The results add to the growing support for the clinically important associations between S1-insula connectivity, clinical pain, and catastrophizing, and suggest that CBT may, in part via reductions in catastrophizing, help to normalize pain-related brain responses in FM.

Inversion Method for Early Detection of ARES-1 Case Breach Failure

Science.gov (United States)

Mackey, Ryan M.; Kulikov, Igor K.; Bajwa, Anupa; Berg, Peter; Smelyanskiy, Vadim

2010-01-01

A document describes research into the problem of detecting a case breach formation at an early stage of a rocket flight. An inversion algorithm for case breach allocation is proposed and analyzed. It is shown how the case breach can be allocated at an early stage of its development by using the rocket sensor data and the output data from the control block of the rocket navigation system. The results are simulated with MATLAB/Simulink software. The efficiency of an inversion algorithm for a case breach location is discussed. The research was devoted to the analysis of the ARES-l flight during the first 120 seconds after the launch and early prediction of case breach failure. During this time, the rocket is propelled by its first-stage Solid Rocket Booster (SRB). If a breach appears in SRB case, the gases escaping through it will produce the (side) thrust directed perpendicular to the rocket axis. The side thrust creates torque influencing the rocket attitude. The ARES-l control system will compensate for the side thrust until it reaches some critical value, after which the flight will be uncontrollable. The objective of this work was to obtain the start time of case breach development and its location using the rocket inertial navigation sensors and GNC data. The algorithm was effective for the detection and location of a breach in an SRB field joint at an early stage of its development.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome mimicking a malignant pancreatic tumour--a case report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wissen, S.; Bastiaansen, B. A. J.; Stroobants, A. K.; van den Dool, E. J.; Idu, M. M.; Levi, M. [=Marcel M.; Stroes, E. S. G.

2008-01-01

The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is characterised by rapid onset thromboses, often resistant to conventional anticoagulant treatment, and resulting in life threatening multiple organ dysfunction. The diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome may be difficult, predominantly due to

The relationship between parental catastrophizing about child pain and distress in response to medical procedures in the context of childhood cancer treatment: a longitudinal analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Caes, Line; Goubert, Liesbet; Devos, Patricia; Verlooy, Joris; Benoit, Yves; Vervoort, Tine

2014-08-01

Children with leukemia frequently undergo invasive medical procedures, such as lumbar punctures (LPs) and bone marrow aspirations (BMAs). To date, cross-sectional evidence indicates that LP/BMA procedures continue to elicit distress over the course of treatment in children and parents. The current study used prospective analyses investigating in 28 children diagnosed with leukemia, the course of parental and child distress when confronted with consecutive LP/BMA procedures and potential moderation by catastrophic thinking. Parents' level of catastrophic thoughts was assessed before the first treatment-related LP/BMA, while child and parent distress was reported on after each LP/BMA procedure. Whereas parental distress decreased over time among low catastrophizing parents, LP/BMA procedures remained highly distressing for high catastrophizing parents. Child distress during LP/BMA procedures increased over time and was positively related with parental distress. These findings stress the importance of targeting child and parent distress as early as possible in treatment. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Tackling The Global Challenge: Humanitarian Catastrophes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenneth V. Iserson

2014-03-01

Full Text Available “Humanitarian catastrophes,” conflicts and calamities generating both widespread human suffering and destructive events, require a wide range of emergency resources. This paper answers a number of questions that humanitarian catastrophes generate: Why and how do the most-developed countries—those with the resources, capabilities, and willingness to help—intervene in specific types of disasters? What ethical and legal guidelines shape our interventions? How well do we achieve our goals? It then suggests a number of changes to improve humanitarian responses, including better NGO-government cooperation, increased research on the best disaster response methods, clarification of the criteria and roles for humanitarian (military interventions, and development of post-2015 Millennium Development Goals with more accurate progress measures. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(2:231–240.

Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Clune, Jeff

2017-01-01

A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules). While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate) learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1) induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning), which 2) produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3) yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting. PMID:29145413

Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roby Velez

Full Text Available A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs, which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules. While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1 induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning, which 2 produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3 yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting.

Observing a catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage in northern Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.

2015-01-01

The formation and drainage of thermokarst lakes have reshaped ice-rich permafrost lowlands in the Arctic throughout the Holocene. North of Teshekpuk Lake, on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, thermokarst lakes presently occupy 22.5% of the landscape, and drained thermokarst lake basins occupy 61.8%. Analysis of remotely sensed imagery indicates that nine lakes (>10 ha) have drained in the 1,750 km2 study area between 1955 and 2014. The most recent lake drainage was observed using in situ data loggers providing information on the duration and magnitude of the event, and a nearby weather station provided information on the environmental conditions preceding the lake drainage. Lake 195 (L195), an 80 ha thermokarst lake with an estimated water volume of ~872,000 m3, catastrophically drained on 05 July 2014. Abundant winter snowfall and heavy early summer precipitation resulted in elevated lake water levels that likely promoted bank overtopping, thermo-erosion along an ice-wedge network, and formation of a 9 m wide, 2 m deep, and 70 m long drainage gully. The lake emptied in 36 hours, with 75% of the water volume loss occurring in the first ten hours. The observed peak discharge of the resultant flood was 25 m3/s, which is similar to that in northern Alaska river basins whose areas are more than two orders of magnitude larger. Our findings support the catastrophic nature of sudden lake drainage events and the mechanistic hypotheses developed by J. Ross Mackay.

Laboratory tests of catastrophic disruption of rotating bodies

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, A. J. W.; Burchell, M. J.

2017-11-01

The results of catastrophic disruption experiments on static and rotating targets are reported. The experiments used cement spheres of diameter 10 cm as the targets. Impacts were by mm sized stainless steel spheres at speeds of between 1 and 7.75 km s-1. Energy densities (Q) in the targets ranged from 7 to 2613 J kg-1. The experiments covered both the cratering and catastrophic disruption regimes. For static, i.e. non-rotating targets the critical energy density for disruption (Q*, the value of Q when the largest surviving target fragment has a mass equal to one half of the pre-impact target mass) was Q* = 1447 ± 90 J kg-1. For rotating targets (median rotation frequency of 3.44 Hz) we found Q* = 987 ± 349 J kg-1, a reduction of 32% in the mean value. This lower value of Q* for rotating targets was also accompanied by a larger scatter on the data, hence the greater uncertainty. We suggest that in some cases the rotating targets behaved as static targets, i.e. broke up with the same catastrophic disruption threshold, but in other cases the rotation helped the break up causing a lower catastrophic disruption threshold, hence both the lower value of Q* and the larger scatter on the data. The fragment mass distributions after impact were similar in both the static and rotating target experiments with similar slopes.

Pricing Zero-Coupon Catastrophe Bonds Using EVT with Doubly Stochastic Poisson Arrivals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zonggang Ma

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The frequency and severity of climate abnormal change displays an irregular upward cycle as global warming intensifies. Therefore, this paper employs a doubly stochastic Poisson process with Black Derman Toy (BDT intensity to describe the catastrophic characteristics. By using the Property Claim Services (PCS loss index data from 2001 to 2010 provided by the US Insurance Services Office (ISO, the empirical result reveals that the BDT arrival rate process is superior to the nonhomogeneous Poisson and lognormal intensity process due to its smaller RMSE, MAE, MRPE, and U and larger E and d. Secondly, to depict extreme features of catastrophic risks, this paper adopts the Peak Over Threshold (POT in extreme value theory (EVT to characterize the tail characteristics of catastrophic loss distribution. And then the loss distribution is analyzed and assessed using a quantile-quantile (QQ plot to visually check whether the PCS index observations meet the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD assumption. Furthermore, this paper derives a pricing formula for zero-coupon catastrophe bonds with a stochastic interest rate environment and aggregate losses generated by a compound doubly stochastic Poisson process under the forward measure. Finally, simulation results verify pricing model predictions and show how catastrophic risks and interest rate risk affect the prices of zero-coupon catastrophe bonds.

Financing Losses from Catastrophic Risks

Science.gov (United States)

2008-11-01

often held in the form of bonds, the interest on which is subject to corporate income tax , which reduces the net earnings to each insurer’s shareholders...course; it is a basic feature of the corporate income tax . But, as explained above, catastrophe insurance is distinguished from other types of

Technical Problem Identification for the Failures of the Liberty Ships

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Zhang

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The U.S. Liberty Ship Building Program in World War II set a record—a total of 2700 Liberty Ships were built in 6 years, in order to support the battle against Nazi-Germany. However, numerous vessels suffered sudden fracture, some of them being split in half. This paper demonstrates and investigation of the Liberty Ships failure and problems, which reveals that the failures are caused by a combination of three factors. The welds produced by largely unskilled work force contain crack type flaws. Beyond these cracks, another important reason for failure associated with welding is the hydrogen embitterment; most of the fractures initiate at deck square hatch corners where there is a stress concentration; and the ship steel has fairly poor Charpy-Impact tested fracture toughness. It has been admitted that, although the numerous catastrophic failures were a painful experience, the failures of the Liberty Ships caused significant progress in the study of fracture mechanics. Considering their effect, the Liberty Ships are still a success.

The early indicators of financial failure: a study of bankrupt and solvent health systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Coyne, Joseph S; Singh, Sher G

2008-01-01

This article presents a series of pertinent predictors of financial failure based on analysis of solvent and bankrupt health systems to identify which financial measures show the clearest distinction between success and failure. Early warning signals are evident from the longitudinal analysis as early as five years before bankruptcy. The data source includes seven years of annual statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission by 13 health systems before they filed bankruptcy. Comparative data were compiled from five solvent health systems for the same seven-year period. Seven financial solvency ratios are included in this study, including four cash liquidity measures, two leverage measures, and one efficiency measure. The results show distinct financial trends between solvent and bankrupt health systems, in particular for the operating-cash-flow-related measures, namely Ratio 1: Operating Cash Flow Percentage Change, from prior to current period; Ratio 2: Operating Cash Flow to Net Revenues; and Ratio 4: Cash Flow to Total Liabilities, indicating sensitivity in the hospital industry to cash flow management. The high dependence on credit from third-party payers is cited as a reason for this; thus, there is a great need for cash to fund operations. Five managerial policy implications are provided to help health system managers avoid financial solvency problems in the future.

Functional Catastrophe Analysis of Collapse Mechanism for Shallow Tunnels with Considering Settlement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rui Zhang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Limit analysis is a practical and meaningful method to predict the stability of geomechanical properties. This work investigates the pore water effect on new collapse mechanisms and possible collapsing block shapes of shallow tunnels with considering the effects of surface settlement. The analysis is performed within the framework of upper bound theorem. Furthermore, the NL nonlinear failure criterion is used to examine the influence of different factors on the collapsing shape and the minimum supporting pressure in shallow tunnels. Analytical solutions derived by functional catastrophe theory for the two different shape curves which describe the distinct characteristics of falling blocks up and down the water level are obtained by virtual work equations under the variational principle. By considering that the mechanical properties of soil are not affected by the presence of underground water, the strength parameters in NL failure criterion can be taken to be the same under and above the water table. According to the numerical results in this work, the influences on the size of collapsing block different parameters have are presented in the tables and the upper bounds on the loads required to resist collapse are derived and illustrated in the form of supporting forces graphs that account for the variation of the embedded depth and other factors.

Catastrophic failures due to environment-assisted cracking of metals: Case histories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shipilov, S.A.

1999-01-01

One of the most serious problems in development of reliable equipment and structures in numerous major industries, namely a problem of the environment-assisted cracking of engineering materials, has been reviewed. This problem is directly related to the problems of maintenance of the safety and reliability of potentially dangerous engineering systems, such as nuclear power plants, fossil fuel power plants, oil and gas pipelines, field equipment, oil production platforms, aircraft and aerospace technologies, chemical plants, etc. At present, environment-assisted cracking, including stress corrosion cracking, corrosion fatigue, hydrogen-induced cracking, hydrogen embrittlement, sulfide stress cracking, irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking, and metal-induced embrittlement, has been a major cause of the premature failures of various components and equipment in these systems. (author)

Catastrophizing and Depressive Symptoms as Prospective Predictors of Outcomes Following Total Knee Replacement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert R Edwards

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Several recent reports suggest that pain-related catastrophizing is a risk factor for poor acute pain outcomes following surgical interventions. However, it has been less clear whether levels of catastrophizing influence longer-term postoperative outcomes. Data were analyzed from a relatively small number (n=43 of patients who underwent total knee replacement and were followed for 12 months after their surgery. Previous research has suggested that high levels of both catastrophizing and depression are associated with elevated acute postoperative pain complaints among patients undergoing knee surgery. In this sample, catastrophizing and depression at each of the assessment points were studied as prospective predictors of pain (both global pain ratings and pain at night at the subsequent assessment point over the course of one year. The predictive patterns differed somewhat across measures of pain reporting; depressive symptoms were unique predictors of greater global pain complaints, while catastrophizing was a specific and unique predictor of elevated nighttime pain. While surgical outcomes following total knee replacement are, on average, quite good, a significant minority of patients continue to experience long-term pain. The present findings suggest that high levels of catastrophizing and depression may promote enhanced pain levels, indicating that interventions designed to reduce catastrophizing and depressive symptoms may have the potential to further improve joint replacement outcomes.

Pain Sensitivity and Pain Catastrophizing are Associated with Persistent Pain and Disability after Lumbar Spine Surgery

Science.gov (United States)

Coronado, Rogelio A.; George, Steven Z.; Devin, Clinton J.; Wegener, Stephen T.; Archer, Kristin R.

2015-01-01

Objective To examine whether pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing are associated with persistent pain and disability after lumbar spine surgery. Design Prospective observational cohort study. Setting Academic medical center. Participants Patients (N = 68, mean ± SD age = 57.9 ± 13.1 years, N female = 40 (58.8%)) undergoing spine surgery for a degenerative condition from March 1, 2012 to April 30, 2013 were assessed 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months after surgery. Interventions Not applicable. Main Outcome Measure(s) The main outcome measures were persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, and disability. Patients with persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability were identified as those patients reporting Brief Pain Inventory scores ≥ 4 and Oswestry Disability Index scores ≥ 21 at all postoperative time points. Results From 6 weeks to 6 months after surgery, approximately 12.9%, 24.2%, and 46.8% of patients reported persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability, respectively. Increased pain sensitivity at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.0; 4.1) after surgery. Increased pain catastrophizing at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), pain interference (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), and disability (OR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.1; 1.4). An interaction effect was not found between pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing on persistent outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusion(s) Findings suggest the importance of early postoperative screening for pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing in order to identify patients at-risk for poor postoperative pain intensity, interference, and/or disability outcomes. Future research should consider the benefit of targeted therapeutic strategies for patients with these postoperative prognostic factors. PMID:26101845

The critical catastrophe revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Mulatier, Clélia; Rosso, Alberto; Dumonteil, Eric; Zoia, Andrea

2015-01-01

The neutron population in a prototype model of nuclear reactor can be described in terms of a collection of particles confined in a box and undergoing three key random mechanisms: diffusion, reproduction due to fissions, and death due to absorption events. When the reactor is operated at the critical point, and fissions are exactly compensated by absorptions, the whole neutron population might in principle go to extinction because of the wild fluctuations induced by births and deaths. This phenomenon, which has been named critical catastrophe, is nonetheless never observed in practice: feedback mechanisms acting on the total population, such as human intervention, have a stabilizing effect. In this work, we revisit the critical catastrophe by investigating the spatial behaviour of the fluctuations in a confined geometry. When the system is free to evolve, the neutrons may display a wild patchiness (clustering). On the contrary, imposing a population control on the total population acts also against the local fluctuations, and may thus inhibit the spatial clustering. The effectiveness of population control in quenching spatial fluctuations will be shown to depend on the competition between the mixing time of the neutrons (i.e. the average time taken for a particle to explore the finite viable space) and the extinction time

Prostate cancer volume adds significantly to prostate-specific antigen in the prediction of early biochemical failure after external beam radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D'Amico, Anthony V.; Propert, Kathleen J.

1996-01-01

Purpose: A new clinical pretreatment quantity that closely approximates the true prostate cancer volume is defined. Methods and Materials: The cancer-specific prostate-specific antigen (PSA), PSA density, prostate cancer volume (V Ca ), and the volume fraction of the gland involved with carcinoma (V Ca fx) were calculated for 227 prostate cancer patients managed definitively with external beam radiation therapy. 1. PSA density PSA/ultrasound prostate gland volume 2. Cancer-specific PSA = PSA - [PSA from benign epithelial tissue] 3. V Ca = Cancer-specific PSA/[PSA in serum per cm 3 of cancer] 4. V Ca fx = V Ca /ultrasound prostate gland volume A Cox multiple regression analysis was used to test whether any of these-clinical pretreatment parameters added significantly to PSA in predicting early postradiation PSA failure. Results: The prostate cancer volume (p = 0.039) and the volume fraction of the gland involved by carcinoma (p = 0.035) significantly added to the PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. Conversely, the PSA density and the cancer-specific PSA did not add significantly (p > 0.05) to PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. The 20-month actuarial PSA failure-free rates for patients with calculated tumor volumes of ≤0.5 cm 3 , 0.5-4.0 cm 3 , and >4.0 cm 3 were 92, 80, and 47%, respectively (p = 0.00004). Conclusion: The volume of prostate cancer (V Ca ) and the resulting volume fraction of cancer both added significantly to PSA in their ability to predict for early postradiation PSA failure. These new parameters may be used to select patients in prospective randomized trials that examine the efficacy of combining radiation and androgen ablative therapy in patients with clinically localized disease, who are at high risk for early postradiation PSA failure

A comparison of regional and global catastrophic hazards associated with energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heising, C.D.; Inhaber, H.

1983-01-01

This paper reviews some of what is known about the relative catastrophic hazards, on both a regional and global level, of energy technologies, and proposes a logical framework for their comparison. A review of the Inhaber study results is made indicating the relative position of overall nuclear power related risks. Then, concentration is placed on describing the catastrophic and global hazards of energy technologies. Regionally catastrophic hazards include sabotage and other malicious human activities, in addition to severe accidents caused inadvertantly by man, such as fires, reactor core damage events, chemical and poisonous gas releases, fuel storage fires and explosions, in addition to others. Global risks include such hazards as nuclear proliferation, CO 2 , build-up, oil shortages and possible national conflicts over dwindling energy fuels. The conclusion is drawn that consideration of both regional and global catastrophic risks must be made in making energy decisions, and that further study is necessary to better quantify and compare these risks. A simple decision analytic framework for making energy decisions inclusive of catastrophic risk is proposed

Thermal catastrophe in the plasma sheet boundary layer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, R.A.; Goertz, C.K.; Grossmann, W.

1986-01-01

This letter presents a first step towards a substorm model including particle heating and transport in the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL). The heating mechanism discussed is resonant absorption of Alfven waves. For some assumed MHD perturbation incident from the tail lobes onto the plasma sheet, the local heating rate in the PSBL has the form of a resonance function of the one-fluid plasma temperature. Balancing the local heating by convective transport of the heated plasma toward the central plasma sheet, and ''equation of state'' is found for the steady-state PSBL whose solution has the form of a mathematical catastrophe: at a critical value of a parameter containing the incident power flux, the local density, and the convection velocity, the equilibrium temperature jumps discontinuously. Associating this temperature increase with the abrupt onset of the substorm expansion phase, the catastrophe model indicates at least three ways in which the onset may be triggered. Several other consequences related to substorm dynamics are suggested by the simple catastrophe model

Catastrophizing and perceived injustice: risk factors for the transition to chronicity after whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, Michael J L; Adams, Heather; Martel, Marc-Olivier; Scott, Whitney; Wideman, Timothy

2011-12-01

The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. This article focuses on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. Research has shown that psychological variables play a role in determining the trajectory of recovery after whiplash injury. This article will focus on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. Several investigations have shown that measures of catastrophizing and perceived injustice prospectively predict problematic trajectories of recovery after whiplash injury. Basic research points to the potential roles of expectancies, attention, coping and endogenous opioid dysregulation as possible avenues through which catastrophizing might heighten the probability of the persistence of pain after whiplash injury. Although research has yet to systematically address the mechanisms by which perceived injustice might contribute to prolonged disability in individuals with whiplash injuries, there are grounds for suggesting the potential contributions of catastrophizing, pain behavior and anger. A challenge for future research will be the development and evaluation of risk factor-targeted interventions aimed at reducing catastrophizing and perceived injustice to improve recovery trajectories after whiplash injury.

Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

2008-01-01

Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour les collectivités vulnérables des Caraïbes. De récents événements survenus dans les Caraïbes ont mis en relief les insuffisances des mesures régionales et nationales de préparation aux catastrophes. On manque particulièrement de systèmes d'alerte ...

Risk assessment of failure modes of gas diffuser liner of V94.2 siemens gas turbine by FMEA method

Science.gov (United States)

Mirzaei Rafsanjani, H.; Rezaei Nasab, A.

2012-05-01

Failure of welding connection of gas diffuser liner and exhaust casing is one of the failure modes of V94.2 gas turbines which are happened in some power plants. This defect is one of the uncertainties of customers when they want to accept the final commissioning of this product. According to this, the risk priority of this failure evaluated by failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) method to find out whether this failure is catastrophic for turbine performance and is harmful for humans. By using history of 110 gas turbines of this model which are used in some power plants, the severity number, occurrence number and detection number of failure determined and consequently the Risk Priority Number (RPN) of failure determined. Finally, critically matrix of potential failures is created and illustrated that failure modes are located in safe zone.

Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

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Ruth Morris

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Cet article relie Madame Bovary au contexte scientifique français des années 1850, en lisant le roman de Flaubert à la lumière des théories de Cuvier. Le savant français Georges Cuvier, avec nombre de ses contemporains, explique les origines du monde à l’aide de la théorie des catastrophes. D’après cette théorie, le monde est divisé en périodes très courtes ponctuées de grandes catastrophes ou, en termes cuviériens, de « révolutions » qui ont éradiqué toute vie et ont permis au monde d’être entièrement repeuplé. Une telle conception affecte l’idée même du « temps ». Cuvier pense que la formation de la Terre est relativement récente, l’époque présente n’étant vieille que de cinq mille ans. Cette compression temporelle peut être rapportée à Madame Bovary dont le « tempo » s’accroît au fur et à mesure qu’on se rapproche du dénouement. Dans la théorie des catastrophes comme dans le roman, le temps ne suit pas une ligne chronologique. Les « révolutions » viennent briser le fil continu du temps et Emma est souvent incapable de distinguer entre le passé, le présent et le futur. Les « révolutions » servent aussi à ponctuer et à perturber le cours de la vie sur Terre en produisant des événements majeurs dans l’histoire du globe. Il en est de même dans la vie d’Emma. Son existence est marquée par des événements majeurs, comme le bal, qui créent un éclatement et une fragmentation de la temporalité, comme dans la théorie de Cuvier. Je défendrai aussi l’idée d’un lien entre la soudaineté et la violence des « révolutions » et les crises nerveuses d’Emma, qui surviennent brusquement et relèvent de l’hystérie. La conception cuviérienne de la temporalité doit enfin être envisagée au regard des théories de l’évolution, ce qui implique de réévaluer les notions d’adaptation, d’hérédité et de mort dans le roman de Flaubert.This paper locates Madame

Early embryonic failure: Expression and imprinted status of candidate genes on human chromosome 21

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sherman, L.S.; Bennett, P.R.; Moore, G.E. [Queen Charlotte`s and Chelsea Hospital, London (United Kingdom)

1994-09-01

Two cases of maternal uniparental (hetero)disomy for human chromosome 21 (mUPD21) have been identified in a systematic search for UPD in 23 cases of early embryonic failure (EEF). Bi-parental origin of the other chromosome pairs was confirmed using specific VNTR probes or dinucleotide repeat analysis. Both maternally and paternally derived isochromosomes 21q have previously been identified in two individuals with normal phenotypes. Full UPD21 has a different mechanism of origin than uniparental isochromosome 21q and its effect on imprinted genes and phenotypic outcome will therefore not necessarily be the same. EEF associated with mUPD21 suggests that developmentally important genes on HSA 21 may be imprinted such that they are only expressed from either the maternally or paternally derived alleles. We have searched for monoallelic expression of candidate genes on HSA 21 in human pregnancy (CBS, IFNAR, COL6A1) using intragenic DNA polymorphisms. These genes were chosen either because their murine homologues lie in imprinted regions or because they are potentially important in embryogenesis. Once imprinted candidate genes have been identified, their methylation status and expression in normal, early embryonic failure and uniparental disomy 21 pregnancies will be studied. At the same time, a larger number of cases of EEF are being examined to further investigate the incidence of UPD21 in this group.

[2016 review on catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome].

Science.gov (United States)

Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie; Coutte, Laetitia; Le Guern, Véronique; Morel, Nathalie; Leroux, Gaelle; Paule, Romain; Mouthon, Luc; Piette, Jean-Charles

2016-12-01

The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) develops in at least 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, either primary or associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. CAPS reveals the antiphospholipid syndrome in about 50% of cases. The CAPS is characterized by rapidly-progressive widespread thromboses mainly affecting the microvasculature in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies. In a few days, the patients develop multiorgan failure with renal insufficiency with severe hypertension, pulmonary, cerebral, cardiac, digestive and/or cutaneous involvement. The vital prognosis is frequently engaged. CAPS is often precipitated by infectious diseases, surgical procedures and/or withdrawal or modification of the anticoagulation. CAPS overall mortality rate has decreased and is currently below 30%. The main differential diagnoses are other thrombotic microangiopathies, and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. The treatment of CAPS consists of the association of anticoagulation and steroids, plus plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulins. Cyclophosphamide is added only in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus. The potential contribution of some additional therapies (rituximab, eculizumab or sirolimus) needs to be assessed. The prevention of CAPS is essential and is based upon the adequate management of the perioperative period when surgery cannot be avoided, the prompt treatment and the prevention with immunization of infections and the education of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, especially for the management of oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Catastrophic subsidence: An environmental hazard, shelby county, Alabama

Science.gov (United States)

Lamoreaux, Philip E.; Newton, J. G.

1986-03-01

Induced sinkholes (catastrophic subsidence) are those caused or accelerated by human activities These sinkholes commonly result from a water level decline due to pumpage Construction activities in a cone of depression greatly increases the likelihood of sinkhole occurrence Almost all occur where cavities develop in unconsolidated deposits overlying solution openings in carbonate rocks. Triggering mechanisms resulting from water level declines are (1) loss of buoyant support of the water, (2) increased gradient and water velocity, (3) water-level fluctuations, and (4) induced recharge Construction activities triggering sinkhole development include ditching, removing overburden, drilling, movement of heavy equipment, blasting and the diversion and impoundment of drainage Triggering mechanisms include piping, saturation, and loading Induced sinkholes resulting from human water development/management activities are most predictable in a youthful karst area impacted by groundwater withdrawals Shape, depth, and timing of catastrophic subsidence can be predicted in general terms Remote sensing techniques are used in prediction of locations of catastrophic subsidence. This provides a basis for design and relocation of structures such as a gas pipeline, dam, or building Utilization of techniques and a case history of the relocation of a pipeline are described

Value of serum PCT in early diagnosis of bacterial infection in patients with liver failure

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WANG Chuanmin

2017-06-01

Full Text Available ObjectiveTo investigate the value of serum procalcitonin (PCT in early diagnosis of bacterial infection in patients with liver failure. MethodsA total of 463 patients with hepatitis B were selected from January to December, 2014, in the Department of Infectious Diseases, Taihe Hospital. According to the degree of liver injury, the patients were divided into four groups: mild liver injury group (n=120, moderate liver injury group (n=222, sever liver injury group (n=53, and liver failure group (n=68. Serum PCT was measured for all patients, and the white blood cell count (WBC and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP were measured for patients with liver failure. The clinical manifestations were observed and recorded. The t test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data, while the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for non-normally distributed continuous data; the Mann-Whitney U test was used for pairwise comparison of continuous data. The chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was used for the analysis of predictive value. ResultsThe liver failure group had a significantly higher PCT level than the severe liver injury group, moderate liver injury group, and mild liver injury group (0.81［0.34-2.15］ vs 0.53［0.21-1.59］, 0.35［010-1.18］, and 0.17［0.10-0.60］, χ2=25.091, P＜0.05. The liver failure patients with PCT levels of ＜0.25 ng/ml (n=10, 0.25-0.5 ng/ml (n=10, and ＞0.5 ng/ml (n=48 had infection rates of 20%, 30%, and 66.7%, respectively, with a significant difference between the patients with a PCT level of ＞0.5 ng/ml and those with PCT levels of ＜0.25 ng/ml and 0.25-0.5 ng/ml (χ2=5631,4650,P=0018,0031. Among the liver failure patients, the infection cases had significantly higher PCT, WBC, and hsCRP than the non-infection cases (PCT: 3.72±1.33 ng/ml vs 0.34±0.12 ng/ml, t=-2.547, P=0.015; hsCRP: 16.70±7.03 mg

Japan Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami in Fukushima Daiichi NPP; Is it Beyond Design Basis Accident or a Design Deficiency and Operator Unawareness?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gaafar, M.A.; Refeat, R.M.; EL-Kady, A.A.

2012-01-01

On March 11, 2011 a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami struck the north east coast of Japan. This catastrophe damaged fully or partially the six units of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.Questions were raised following the aftermath, whether it is beyond design basis accident caused by severe natural event or a failure by the Japanese authorities to plan to deal with such accident. There are many indications that the Utility of Fukushima Daiichi NPP, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), did not pay enough attention to numerous facts about the incompatibility of the site and several design defects in the plant units. In fact there are three other NPP sites nearby Fukushima Daiichi Plant (about 30 to 60 Km far from Fukushima Daiichi NPP), with different site characteristics, which survived the same catastrophic earthquake and tsunami, but they were automatically turned into a safe shutdown state. These plants sites are Fukushima Daini Plant (4 units), Onagawa Plant (3 units) and Tokai Daini (II) Plant (one unit). In this paper, the aftermath Fukushima Daiichi plant integrity is pointed out. Some facts about the site and design concerns which could have implications on the accident are discussed. The response of Japan Authority is outlined and some remarks about their actions are underlined. The impacts of this disaster on the Nuclear Power Program worldwide are also discussed.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in leprosy | Chewoolkar ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to ...

Detection of Taenia solium taeniasis coproantigen is an early indicator of treatment failure for taeniasis.

Science.gov (United States)

Bustos, Javier A; Rodriguez, Silvia; Jimenez, Juan A; Moyano, Luz M; Castillo, Yesenia; Ayvar, Viterbo; Allan, James C; Craig, Philip S; Gonzalez, Armando E; Gilman, Robert H; Tsang, Victor C W; Garcia, Hector H

2012-04-01

Taenia solium causes taeniasis and cysticercosis, a zoonotic complex associated with a significant burden of epilepsy in most countries. Reliable diagnosis and efficacious treatment of taeniasis are needed for disease control. Currently, cure can be confirmed only after a period of at least 1 month, by negative stool microscopy. This study assessed the performance of detection by a coproantigen enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (CoAg-ELISA) for the early evaluation of the efficacy of antiparasitic treatment of human T. solium taeniasis. We followed 69 tapeworm carriers who received niclosamide as standard treatment. Stool samples were collected on days 1, 3, 7, 15, 30, and 90 after treatment and were processed by microscopy and CoAg-ELISA. The efficacy of niclosamide was 77.9% (53/68). Thirteen patients received a second course of treatment and completed the follow-up. CoAg-ELISA was therefore evaluated for a total of 81 cases (68 treatments, 13 retreatments). In successful treatments (n = 64), the proportion of patients who became negative by CoAg-ELISA was 62.5% after 3 days, 89.1% after 7 days, 96.9% after 15 days, and 100% after 30 days. In treatment failures (n = 17), the CoAg-ELISA result was positive for 70.6% of patients after 3 days, 94.1% after 7 days, and 100% after 15 and 30 days. Only 2 of 17 samples in cases of treatment failure became positive by microscopy by day 30. The presence of one scolex, but not multiple scolices, in posttreatment stools was strongly associated with cure (odds ratio [OR], 52.5; P taeniasis. Early assessment at day 15 would detect treatment failure before patients become infective.

Bilateral Medial Medullary Stroke: A Challenge in Early Diagnosis

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Amir M. Torabi

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Bilateral medial medullary stroke is a very rare type of stroke, with catastrophic consequences. Early diagnosis is crucial. Here, I present a young patient with acute vertigo, progressive generalized weakness, dysarthria, and respiratory failure, who initially was misdiagnosed with acute vestibular syndrome. Initial brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI that was done in the acute phase was read as normal. Other possibilities were excluded by lumbar puncture and MRI of cervical spine. MR of C-spine showed lesion at medial medulla; therefore a second MRI of brain was requested, showed characteristic “heart appearance” shape at diffusion weighted (DWI, and confirmed bilateral medial medullary stroke. Retrospectively, a vague-defined hyperintense linear DWI signal at midline was noted in the first brain MRI. Because of the symmetric and midline pattern of this abnormal signal and similarity to an artifact, some radiologists or neurologists may miss this type of stroke. Radiologists and neurologists must recognize clinical and MRI findings of this rare type of stroke, which early treatment could make a difference in patient outcome. The abnormal DWI signal in early stages of this type of stroke may not be a typical “heart appearance” shape, and other variants such as small dot or linear DWI signal at midline must be recognized as early signs of stroke. Also, MRI of cervical spine may be helpful if there is attention to brainstem as well.

Polarization catastrophe in nanostructures doped in photonic band gap materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Singh, Mahi R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, London N6A 3K7 (Canada)], E-mail: msingh@uwo.ca

2008-11-30

In the presence of the dipole-dipole interaction, we have studied a possible dielectric catastrophe in photonic band gap materials doped with an ensemble of four-level nanoparticles. It is found that the dielectric constant of the system has a singularity when the resonance energy lies within the bands. This phenomenon is known as the dielectric catastrophe. It is also found that this phenomenon depends on the strength of the dipole-dipole interaction.

Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

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Daniel Mwai

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

Extended prediction rule to optimise early detection of heart failure in older persons with non-acute shortness of breath : A cross-sectional study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Riet, Evelien E S; Hoes, Arno W.; Limburg, Alexander; Landman, Marcel A J; Kemperman, Hans; Rutten, Frans H.

2016-01-01

Objectives: There is a need for a practical tool to aid general practitioners in early detection of heart failure in the elderly with shortness of breath. In this study, such a screening rule was developed based on an existing rule for detecting heart failure in older persons with a diagnosis of

Incipient ovarian failure and premature ovarian failure show the same immunological profile

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Kasteren, YM; von Blomberg, M; Hoek, A; de Koning, C; Lambalk, N; van Montfrans, J; Kuik, J

PROBLEM: Incipient ovarian failure (IOF) is characterized by regular menstrual cycles, infertility and a raised early-follicular FSH in women under 40. IOF might be a precursor or a mitigated form of premature ovarian failure (POF). Disturbances in the immune system may play a role in ovarian

Reprinted article "Factors associated with early failure of arteriovenous fistulae for haemodialysis access".

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, V; Ward, R; Taylor, J; Selvakumar, S; How, T V; Bakran, A

2011-09-01

The radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula remains the method of choice for haemodialysis access. In order to assess their suitability for fistula formation, the radial arteries and cephalic veins were examined preoperatively by ultrasound colour flow scanner in conjunction with a pulse-generated run-off system. Intraoperative blood flow was measured after construction of the fistulae. Post-operative follow-up was performed at various intervals to monitor the development of the fistulae. Radial artery and cephalic vein diameter less than 1.6 mm was associated with early fistula failure. The intraoperative fistula blood flow did not correlate with the outcome of the operation probably due to vessel spasm from manipulation. However, blood flow velocities measured non-invasively 1 day after the operation were significantly lower in fistulae that failed early compared with those that were adequate for haemodialysis. Most of the increase in fistula diameter and blood flow occur within the first 2 weeks of surgery. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darnall BD

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

Catastrophic complication following injection and extracorporeal shock wave therapy of a medial femoral condyle subchondral cystic lesion in a 14 year old Arabian mare

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darla K. Moser

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This report describes fibrous cyst lining injection and extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT of a medial femoral condyle (MFC subchondral cystic lesion (SCL resulting in catastrophic MFC fracture in an Arabian mare. The mare was presented for evaluation of a severe hind limb lameness of approximately 4 months duration. On presentation, a non-weight bearing lameness of the left hind limb with severe effusion and soft tissue swelling of the stifle region was noted. Radiographic evaluation of the stifle revealed a large SCL of the MFC with associated osteoarthritis. Arthroscopic guided intra-lesional injection of the SCL with corticosteroids and autologous bone marrow concentrate was performed followed by ESWT of the MFC. The mare was discharged walking comfortably 48-hours post-operatively. An acute increase in lameness was noted 14 days post-operatively. Imaging revealed catastrophic fracture of the left MFC. Possible mechanisms leading to failure of the MFC secondary to the described treatment are discussed.

Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Müller, N; Kierfeld, J

2014-01-01

We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0 ∘ to 22 ∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

Stability of interbed for salt cavern gas storage in solution mining considering cusp displacement catastrophe theory

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Le Yu

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Cusp displacement catastrophe theory can be introduced to propose a new method about instability failure of the interbed for gas storage cavern in bedded salt in solution mining. We can calculate initial fracture drawing pace of this interbed to obtain 2D and 3D gas storage shapes at this time. Moreover, Stability evaluation of strength reduction finite element method (FEM based on this catastrophe theory can used to evaluate this interbed stability after initial fracture. A specific example is simulated to obtain the influence of the interbed depth, cavern internal pressure, and cavern building time on stability safety factor (SSF. The results indicate: the value of SSF will be lower with the increase of cavern building time in solution mining and the increase of interbed depth and also this value remains a rise with the increase of cavern internal pressure Especially, we can conclude that the second-fracture of the interbed may take place when this pressure is lower than 6 MPa or after 6 days later of the interbed after initial fracture. According to above analysis, some effective measures, namely elevating the tube up to the top of the interbed, or changing the circulation of in-and-out lines, can be introduced to avoid the negative effects when the second-fracture of the interbed may occur.

Renin-Angiotensin Activation and Oxidative Stress in Early Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction

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Smita I. Negi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Animal models have suggested a role of renin-angiotensin system (RAS activation and subsequent cardiac oxidation in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF. Nevertheless, RAS blockade has failed to show efficacy in treatment of HFpEF. We evaluated the role of RAS activation and subsequent systemic oxidation in HFpEF. Oxidative stress markers were compared in 50 subjects with and without early HFpEF. Derivatives of reactive oxidative metabolites (DROMs, F2-isoprostanes (IsoPs, and ratios of oxidized to reduced glutathione (Eh GSH and cysteine (Eh CyS were measured. Angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE levels and activity were measured. On univariate analysis, HFpEF was associated with male sex (p=0.04, higher body mass index (BMI (p=0.003, less oxidized Eh CyS (p=0.001, lower DROMs (p=0.02, and lower IsoP (p=0.03. Higher BMI (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1–1.6 and less oxidized Eh CyS (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1–1.4 maintained associations with HFpEF on multivariate analysis. Though ACE levels were higher in early HFpEF (OR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.01–1.05, ACE activity was similar to that in controls. HFpEF is not associated with significant systemic RAS activation or oxidative stress. This may explain the failure of RAS inhibitors to alter outcomes in HFpEF.

Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2009-08-01

Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

2018-03-01

The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

Early dystrophin loss is coincident with the transition of compensated cardiac hypertrophy to heart failure.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernanda P Prado

Full Text Available Hypertension causes cardiac hypertrophy, one of the most important risk factors for heart failure (HF. Despite the importance of cardiac hypertrophy as a risk factor for the development of HF, not all hypertrophied hearts will ultimately fail. Alterations of cytoskeletal and sarcolemma-associated proteins are considered markers cardiac remodeling during HF. Dystrophin provides mechanical stability to the plasma membrane through its interactions with the actin cytoskeleton and, indirectly, to extracellular matrix proteins. This study was undertaken to evaluate dystrophin and calpain-1 in the transition from compensated cardiac hypertrophy to HF. Wistar rats were subjected to abdominal aorta constriction and killed at 30, 60 and 90 days post surgery (dps. Cardiac function and blood pressure were evaluated. The hearts were collected and Western blotting and immunofluorescence performed for dystrophin, calpain-1, alpha-fodrin and calpastatin. Statistical analyses were performed and considered significant when p<0.05. After 90 dps, 70% of the animals showed hypertrophic hearts (HH and 30% hypertrophic+dilated hearts (HD. Systolic and diastolic functions were preserved at 30 and 60 dps, however, decreased in the HD group. Blood pressure, cardiomyocyte diameter and collagen content were increased at all time points. Dystrophin expression was lightly increased at 30 and 60 dps and HH group. HD group showed decreased expression of dystrophin and calpastatin and increased expression of calpain-1 and alpha-fodrin fragments. The first signals of dystrophin reduction were observed as early as 60 dps. In conclusion, some hearts present a distinct molecular pattern at an early stage of the disease; this pattern could provide an opportunity to identify these failure-prone hearts during the development of the cardiac disease. We showed that decreased expression of dystrophin and increased expression of calpains are coincident and could work as possible

Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

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Andrey S. Kryukovsky

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of special software for calculating of special functions, questions of portability, extensibility and interoperability.

Early management of patients with acute heart failure: state of the art and future directions. A consensus document from the society for academic emergency medicine/heart failure society of America acute heart failure working group.

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Sean; Storrow, Alan B; Albert, Nancy M; Butler, Javed; Ezekowitz, Justin; Felker, G Michael; Fermann, Gregory J; Fonarow, Gregg C; Givertz, Michael M; Hiestand, Brian; Hollander, Judd E; Lanfear, David E; Levy, Phillip D; Pang, Peter S; Peacock, W Frank; Sawyer, Douglas B; Teerlink, John R; Lenihan, Daniel J

2015-01-01

Heart failure (HF) afflicts nearly 6 million Americans, resulting in one million emergency department (ED) visits and over one million annual hospital discharges. An aging population and improved survival from cardiovascular diseases is expected to further increase HF prevalence. Emergency providers play a significant role in the management of patients with acute heart failure (AHF). It is crucial that emergency physicians and other providers involved in early management understand the latest developments in diagnostic testing, therapeutics and alternatives to hospitalization. Further, clinical trials must be conducted in the ED in order to improve the evidence base and drive optimal initial therapy for AHF. Should ongoing and future studies suggest early phenotype-driven therapy improves in-hospital and post-discharge outcomes, ED treatment decisions will need to evolve accordingly. The potential impact of future studies which incorporate risk-stratification into ED disposition decisions cannot be underestimated. Predictive instruments that identify a cohort of patients safe for ED discharge, while simultaneously addressing barriers to successful outpatient management, have the potential to significantly impact quality of life and resource expenditures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hachisu, I; Sugimoto, D [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of General Education; Nakada, Y; Nomoto, K

1978-08-01

Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed.

Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro; Nakada, Yoshikazu; Nomoto, Ken-ichi.

1978-01-01

Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed. (author)

Exposure of Human Lung Cancer Cells to 8-Chloro-Adenosine Induces G2/M Arrest and Mitotic Catastrophe

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Hong-Yu Zhang

2004-11-01

Full Text Available 8-Chloro-adenosine (8-CI-Ado is a potent chemotherapeutic agent whose cytotoxicity in a variety of tumor cell lines has been widely investigated. However, the molecular mechanisms are uncertain. In this study, we found that exposure of human lung cancer cell lines A549 (p53-wt and H1299 (p53-depleted to 8-CI-Ado induced cell arrest in the G2/M phase, which was accompanied by accumulation of binucleated and polymorphonucleated cells resulting from aberrant mitosis and failed cytokinesis. Western blotting showed the loss of phosphorylated forms of Cdc2 and Cdc25C that allowed progression into mitosis. Furthermore, the increase in Ser10-phosphorylated histone H3-positive cells revealed by fluorescence-activated cell sorting suggested that the agent-targeted cells were able to exit the G2 phase and enter the M phase. Immunocytochemistry showed that microtubule and microfilament arrays were changed in exposed cells, indicating that the dynamic instability of microtubules and microfilaments was lost, which may correlate with mitotic dividing failure. Aberrant mitosis resulted in mitotic catastrophe followed by varying degrees of apoptosis, depending on the cell lines. Thus, 8-CI-Ado appears to exert its cytotoxicity toward cells in culture by inducing mitotic catastrophe.

Catastrophic risk : Social influences on insurance decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krawczyk, Michal; Trautmann, Stefan; van de Kuilen, Gijs

We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social

Dam failure analysis/calibration using NWS models on dam failure in Alton, New Hampshire

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Capone, E.J.

1998-01-01

The State of New Hampshire Water Resources Board, the United States Geological Service, and private concerns have compiled data on the cause of a catastrophic failure of the Bergeron Dam in Alton, New Hampshire in March of 1996. Data collected related to the cause of the breach, the breach parameters, the soil characteristics of the failed section, and the limits of downstream flooding. Dam break modeling software was used to calibrate and verify the simulated flood-wave caused by the Bergeron Dam breach. Several scenarios were modeled, using different degrees of detail concerning the topography/channel-geometry of the affected areas. A sensitivity analysis of the important output parameters was completed. The relative importance of model parameters on the results was assessed against the background of observed historical events

Diagnosis and management of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Carmi, Or; Berla, Maya; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Levy, Yair

2017-04-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare, life-threatening disease. In 1992, Asherson defined it as a widespread coagulopathy related to the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). CAPS requires rapid diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment. Areas covered: This paper discusses all aspects of CAPS, including its pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches, differential diagnoses, management and treatment of relapsing CAPS, and its prognosis. To obtain the information used in this review, scientific databases were searched using the key words antiphospholipid antibodies, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, hemolytic anemia, lupus anticoagulant, and thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia. Expert commentary: CAPS is a rare variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). It is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs and a cytokine storm developing over a short period, with histopathologic evidence of multiple microthromboses, and laboratory confirmation of high aPL titers. This review discusses the diagnostic challenges and current approaches to the treatment of CAPS.

Evaluation of the cool-down behaviour of ITER FW beryllium tiles for an early failure detection

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Thomas Weber

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The design of the first wall in ITER foresees several hundred thousand beryllium tiles, which are bonded to the water-cooled CuCrZr supporting structure. Due to the nature of a Tokamak reactor this bonding is faced to thermal fatigue. Since the failure of a single tile might already have a major impact on the operability of ITER, comprehensive high heat flux tests are performed on prototypes prior to the acceptance of manufacturing procedures. For a deeper understanding of the temperature curves, which were and will be measured by IR devices of these first wall prototypes, thermo-mechanical FEM simulations shall demonstrate the possibilities of an early bonding failure detection. Hereby, the maximum temperatures for each cycle as well as the cool-down behaviour are the input data.

Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J

2016-04-01

When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain.

Financial catastrophe and poverty impacts of out-of-pocket health payments in Turkey.

Science.gov (United States)

Özgen Narcı, Hacer; Şahin, İsmet; Yıldırım, Hasan Hüseyin

2015-04-01

To determine the prevalence of catastrophic health payments, examine the determinants of catastrophic expenditures, and assess the poverty impact of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Data came from the 2004 to 2010 Household Budget Survey. Catastrophic health spending was defined by health payments as percentage of household consumption expenditures and capacity to pay at a set of thresholds. The poverty impact was evaluated by poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP health payments. The percentage of households that catastrophically spent their consumption expenditure and capacity to pay increased from 2004 to 2010, regardless of the threshold used. Households with a share of more than 40% health spending in both consumption expenditure and capacity to pay accounted for less than 1% across years. However, when a series of potential confounders were taken into account, the study found statistically significantly increased risk for the lowest threshold and decreased risk for the highest threshold in 2010 relative to the base year. Household income, size, education, senior and under 5-year-old members, health insurance, disabled members, payment for inpatient care and settlement were also statistically significant predictors of catastrophic health spending. Overall, poverty head counts were below 1%. Poverty gaps reached a maximum of 0.098%, with an overall increase in 2010 compared to 2004. Catastrophe and poverty increased from 2004 to 2010. However, given that the realization of some recent policies will affect the financial burden of OOP payments on households, the findings of this study need to be replicated.

A comparison of catastrophic injury incidence rates by Provincial Rugby Union in South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Badenhorst, Marelise; Verhagen, Evert A L M; van Mechelen, Willem; Lambert, Michael I; Viljoen, Wayne; Readhead, Clint; Baerecke, Gail; Brown, James C

2017-07-01

To compare catastrophic injury rates between the 14 South African Provincial Rugby Unions. A prospective, population-based study conducted among all South African Unions between 2008-2014. Player numbers in each Union were obtained from South African Rugby's 2013 Census. Catastrophic injuries were analysed from BokSmart's serious injury database. Incidence rates with 95% Confidence Intervals were calculated. Catastrophic injuries (Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries) within Unions were compared statistically, using a Poisson regression with Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and a 95% confidence level (pUnion ranged from 1.8 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-6.5) to 7.9 (95% CI: 0.0-28.5) per 100000 players per year. The highest incidence rate of permanent outcome Acute Spinal Cord Injuries was reported at 7.1 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-17.6). Compared to this Union, five (n=5/14, 36%) of the Unions had significantly lower incidence rates of Acute Spinal Cord Injuries. Proportionately, three Unions had more Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and three other Unions had more catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries. There were significant differences in the catastrophic injury incidence rates amongst the Provincial Unions in South Africa. Future studies should investigate the underlying reasons contributing to these provincial differences. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Six-Year Survival and Early Failure Rate of 2918 Implants with Hydrophobic and Hydrophilic Enossal Surfaces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olivier Le Gac

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of this chart review was to obtain an objective, quantitative assessment of the clinical performance of an implant line used in an implantological office setting. Implants with hydrophilic (INICELL and hydrophobic (TST; both: Thommen Medical AG, Grenchen, Switzerland enossal surfaces were compared and the cumulative implant survival rate was calculated. The data of 1063 patients that received 2918 implants (1337 INICELL, 1581 TST was included. The average follow up time was 2.1 (1.1–5.4 years for INICELL and 4.5 (1.3–5.9 years for TST implants (Thommen Medical AG, Switzerland. In the reported period 7 implants with INICELL (0.5% and 23 TST implants (1.5% failed. This difference was statistically significant. The analysis of cases treated and followed up in a single implantological office for 6 years confirmed the very good clinical outcome that was achieved with both used implant lines. Within the limitations of this retrospective analysis, the overall early failure rate of the hydrophilic implants was significantly lower than that of hydrophobic implants. The use of hydrophilic implants allows the clinician to obtain less early failures, hence the interest of an up-to-date surface for the daily work of an implant practice.

Six-Year Survival and Early Failure Rate of 2918 Implants with Hydrophobic and Hydrophilic Enossal Surfaces.

Science.gov (United States)

Gac, Olivier Le; Grunder, Ueli

2015-02-05

The aim of this chart review was to obtain an objective, quantitative assessment of the clinical performance of an implant line used in an implantological office setting. Implants with hydrophilic (INICELL) and hydrophobic (TST; both: Thommen Medical AG, Grenchen, Switzerland) enossal surfaces were compared and the cumulative implant survival rate was calculated. The data of 1063 patients that received 2918 implants (1337 INICELL, 1581 TST) was included. The average follow up time was 2.1 (1.1-5.4) years for INICELL and 4.5 (1.3-5.9) years for TST implants (Thommen Medical AG, Switzerland). In the reported period 7 implants with INICELL (0.5%) and 23 TST implants (1.5%) failed. This difference was statistically significant. The analysis of cases treated and followed up in a single implantological office for 6 years confirmed the very good clinical outcome that was achieved with both used implant lines. Within the limitations of this retrospective analysis, the overall early failure rate of the hydrophilic implants was significantly lower than that of hydrophobic implants. The use of hydrophilic implants allows the clinician to obtain less early failures, hence the interest of an up-to-date surface for the daily work of an implant practice.

Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

Science.gov (United States)

McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

2010-05-01

Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

2017-04-01

Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leffer, T.N.

2013-01-01

The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

Optimism Moderates the Influence of Pain Catastrophizing on Shoulder Pain Outcome: A Longitudinal Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Coronado, Rogelio A; Simon, Corey B; Lentz, Trevor A; Gay, Charles W; Mackie, Lauren N; George, Steven Z

2017-01-01

Study Design Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data. Background An abundance of evidence has highlighted the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on clinical outcomes. Less is known about the interaction of positive psychological resources with these pain-associated distress factors. Objective To assess whether optimism moderates the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on 3-month clinical outcomes in patients with shoulder pain. Methods Data from 63 individuals with shoulder pain (mean ± SD age, 38.8 ± 14.9 years; 30 female) were examined. Demographic, psychological, and clinical characteristics were obtained at baseline. Validated measures were used to assess optimism (Life Orientation Test-Revised), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), fear avoidance (Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire physical activity subscale), shoulder pain intensity (Brief Pain Inventory), and shoulder function (Pennsylvania Shoulder Score function subscale). Shoulder pain and function were reassessed at 3 months. Regression models assessed the influence of (1) pain catastrophizing and optimism and (2) fear avoidance and optimism. The final multivariable models controlled for factors of age, sex, education, and baseline scores, and included 3-month pain intensity and function as separate dependent variables. Results Shoulder pain (mean difference, -1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.1, -1.2) and function (mean difference, 2.4; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.4) improved over 3 months. In multivariable analyses, there was an interaction between pain catastrophizing and optimism (β = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.35) for predicting 3-month shoulder function (F = 16.8, R 2 = 0.69, Poptimism lessened the influence of pain catastrophizing on function. There was no evidence of significant moderation of fear-avoidance beliefs for 3-month shoulder pain (P = .090) or function (P = .092). Conclusion Optimism decreased the negative influence of pain

Early pregnancy failure management among family physicians.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, Robin; Dehlendorf, Christine; Vittinghoff, Eric; Gold, Katherine J; Dalton, Vanessa K

2013-03-01

Family physicians, as primary care providers for reproductive-aged women, frequently initiate or refer patients for management of early pregnancy failure (EPF). Safe and effective options for EPF treatment include expectant management, medical management with misoprostol, and aspiration in the office or operating room. Current practice does not appear to reflect patient preferences or to utilize the most cost-effective treatments. We compared characteristics and practice patterns among family physicians who do and do not provide multiple options for EPF care. We performed a secondary analysis of a national survey of women's health providers to describe demographic and practice characteristics among family physicians who care for women with EPF. We used multivariate logistic regression to identify correlates of providing more than one option for EPF management. The majority of family physicians provide only one option for EPF; expectant management was most frequently used among our survey respondents. Misoprostol and office-based aspiration were rarely used. Providing more than one option for EPF management was associated with more years in practice, smaller county population, larger proportions of Medicaid patients, intrauterine contraception provision, and prior training in office-based aspiration. Family physicians are capable of providing a comprehensive range of options for EPF management in the outpatient setting but few providers currently do so. To create a more patient-centered and cost-effective model of care for EPF, additional resources should be directed at education, skills training, and system change initiatives to prepare family physicians to offer misoprostol and office-based aspiration to women with EPF.

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chloe J. Taub

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period. All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Taub, Chloe J; Sturgeon, John A; Johnson, Kevin A; Mackey, Sean C; Darnall, Beth D

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

Science.gov (United States)

Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:28348505

Analyses of fatalities from natural catastrophes in different income groups over time

Science.gov (United States)

Grimm, Tobias

2017-04-01

Identifying not only economic and insured losses but also numbers of fatalities from natural catastrophes provides new information on resilience and prevention measures in the countries affected. In this talk, we examine how fatalities from Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database, caused by natural disasters have developed. In addition to the standard approach based on fatalities by country, we introduced a new measure, "fatalities per million inhabitants", and factored in population development over time. The World Bank definition was used to determine the wealth classification of individual countries. This methodology enables us to compare countries with different population sizes and thus produce an index for humanitarian impact. The analyses are key information on ascertaining whether prevention measures or early-warning systems have in fact reduced the number of fatalities in recent decades (1980-2016).

Tropical mathematics and the financial catastrophe of the 17th century. Thermoeconomics of Russia in the early 20th century

Science.gov (United States)

Maslov, V. P.

2010-03-01

In the paper, an example is presented concerning relationships (which cannot be neglected) between mathematics and other sciences. In particular, the relationship between the tropical mathematics and the humanitarian-economic catastrophe of 17th century (related to slavery of Africans) is considered. The notion of critical state of economy of the 19th century is introduced by using the refined Fisher equation. A correspondence principle for thermodynamics of fluids and economics of the 19th century is presented.

Failure mode and effect analysis on safety critical components of space travel

OpenAIRE

Kouroush Jenab; Joseph Pineau

2015-01-01

Sending men to space has never been an ordinary activity, it requires years of planning and preparation in order to have a chance of success. The payoffs of reliable and repeatable space flight are many, including both Commercial and Military opportunities. In order for reliable and repeatable space flight to become a reality, catastrophic failures need to be detected and mitigated before they occur. It can be shown that small pieces of a design which seem ordinary can create devastating impa...

Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda

OpenAIRE

Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

2015-01-01

Background Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Methods Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined ...

Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

2013-10-01

Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

Catastrophic health expenditure and its determinants in Kenya slum communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Buigut, Steven; Ettarh, Remare; Amendah, Djesika D

2015-05-14

In Kenya, where 60 to 80% of the urban residents live in informal settlements (frequently referred to as slums), out-of-pocket (OOP) payments account for more than a third of national health expenditures. However, little is known on the extent to which these OOP payments are associated with personal or household financial catastrophe in the slums. This paper seeks to examine the incidence and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure among urban slum communities in Kenya. We use a unique dataset on informal settlement residents in Kenya and various approaches that relate households OOP payments for healthcare to total expenditures adjusted for subsistence, or income. We classified households whose OOP was in excess of a predefined threshold as facing catastrophic health expenditures (CHE), and identified the determinants of CHE using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The results indicate that the proportion of households facing CHE varies widely between 1.52% and 28.38% depending on the method and the threshold used. A core set of variables were found to be key determinants of CHE. The number of working adults in a household and membership in a social safety net appear to reduce the risk of catastrophic expenditure. Conversely, seeking care in a public or private hospital increases the risk of CHE. This study suggests that a substantial proportion of residents of informal settlements in Kenya face CHE and would likely forgo health care they need but cannot afford. Mechanisms that pool risk and cost (insurance) are needed to protect slum residents from CHE and improve equity in health care access and payment.

Dietary Sodium Modulation of Aldosterone Activation and Renal Function During the Progression of Experimental Heart Failure Miller: Dietary Sodium and Early Heart Failure

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Wayne L.; Borgeson, Daniel D.; Grantham, J. Aaron; Luchner, Andreas; Redfield, Margaret M.; Burnett, John C.

2015-01-01

Aims Aldosterone activation is central to the sodium-fluid retention that marks the progression of heart failure (HF). The actions of dietary sodium restriction, a mainstay in HF management, on cardiorenal and neuroendocrine adaptations during the progression of HF are poorly understood. The study aim was to assess the role of dietary sodium during the progression of experimental HF. Methods and Results Experimental HF was produced in a canine model by rapid right ventricular pacing which evolves from early mild HF to overt, severe HF. Dogs were fed one of three diets: 1) high sodium [250 mEq (5.8 grams) per day, n=6]; 2) standard sodium [58 mEq (1.3 grams) per day, n=6]; and 3) sodium restriction [11 mEq (0.25 grams) per day, n=6]. During the 38 day study hemodynamics, renal function, renin activity (PRA), and aldosterone were measured. Changes in hemodynamics at 38 days were similar in all three groups, as were changes in renal function. Aldosterone activation was demonstrated in all three groups, however, dietary sodium restriction, in contrast to high sodium, resulted in early (10 days) activation of PRA and aldosterone. High sodium demonstrated significant suppression of aldosterone activation over the course of HF progression. Conclusions Excessive dietary sodium restriction particularly in early stage HF results in early aldosterone activation, while normal and excess sodium intake are associated with delayed or suppressed activation. These findings warrant evaluation in humans to determine if dietary sodium manipulation, particularly during early stage HF, may have a significant impact on neuroendocrine disease progression. PMID:25823360

Catastrophic Economic Consequences of Healthcare Payments: Effects on Poverty Estimates in Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Shoukry Rashad

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Healthcare payments could drive households with no health insurance coverage into financial catastrophe, which might lead them to cut spending on necessities, sell assets, or use credit. In extreme cases, healthcare payments could have devastating consequences on the household economic status that would push them into extreme poverty. Using nationally representative surveys from three Arab countries, namely, Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine, this paper examines the incidence, intensity and distribution of catastrophic health payments, and assesses the poverty impact of out-of-pocket health payments (OOP. The OOP for healthcare were considered catastrophic if it exceeded 10% of a household’s total expenditure or 40% of non-food expenditure. The poverty impact was evaluated using poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP. Results show that OOP exacerbate households’ living severely in Egypt, pushing more than one-fifth of the population into a financial catastrophe and 3% into extreme poverty in 2011. However, in Jordan and Palestine, the disruptive impact of OOP remains modest over time. In the three countries, the catastrophic health payment is the problem of the better off households. Poverty alleviation policies should help reduce the reliance on OOP to finance healthcare. Moving toward universal health coverage could also be a promising option to protect households from the catastrophic economic consequences of health care payments.

Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borisevich, Nikolaj

2001-01-01

The radioactive blow-outs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant catastrophe reached many states. The largest amount of them (according to experts' estimations - 70%) fell out on the Belarus territory. The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. More than 14 years have passed since the Chernobyl NPP accident but some of the problems caused by the catastrophe have not been solved. This is bound up, first of all, with a high collective dosage absorbed by the population, with difficulties in forecasting and prophylactics of remote radiological effects, with ecological and economic crisis. The consequences of the disaster greatly affect all the aspects of vital activities of the affected regions and the state as a whole. Destructive tendencies have been revealed in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population inhabiting the contaminated territory and resettled as well, require considerable optimisation. Negative factors of the Chernobyl catastrophe, which are significant for human health can be divided into two groups as follows: radiation-based, directly related to influence of ionising radiation and non radiation based, related to changes in habitat and prolonged psychological stress. The specific peculiarities of psychogenic disorders caused by the catastrophe are determined by the following reasons: insufficient knowledge of radiation effects; constant apprehension for the health and well-being of themselves and their families, especially children; unexpected change of the life stereotype (forced resettlement, the break of the former life, changing the place and the character of work, etc.); the necessity of constant keeping precaution measures and prophylactic

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary.

Science.gov (United States)

Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I

2014-10-01

The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.

Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of

The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

2013-01-01

Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

Aetiology, timing and clinical predictors of early vs. late readmission following index hospitalization for acute heart failure: insights from ASCEND-HF.

Science.gov (United States)

Fudim, Marat; O'Connor, Christopher M; Dunning, Allison; Ambrosy, Andrew P; Armstrong, Paul W; Coles, Adrian; Ezekowitz, Justin A; Greene, Stephen J; Metra, Marco; Starling, Randall C; Voors, Adriaan A; Hernandez, Adrian F; Michael Felker, G; Mentz, Robert J

2018-02-01

Patients hospitalized for heart failure (HF) are at high risk for 30-day readmission. This study sought to examine the timings and causes of readmission within 30 days of an HF hospitalization. Timing and cause of readmission in the ASCEND-HF (Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide and Decompensated Heart Failure) trial were assessed. Early and late readmissions were defined as admissions occurring within 0-7 days and 8-30 days post-discharge, respectively. Patients who died in hospital or remained hospitalized at day 30 post-randomization were excluded. Patients were compared by timing and cause of readmission. Logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for early vs. late readmission and associations with 180-day outcomes. Of the 6584 patients (92%) in the ASCEND-HF population included in this analysis, 751 patients (11%) were readmitted within 30 days for any cause. Overall, 54% of readmissions were for non-HF causes. The median time to rehospitalization was 11 days (interquartile range: 6-18 days) and 33% of rehospitalizations occurred by day 7. Rehospitalization within 30 days was independently associated with increased risk for 180-day all-cause death [hazard ratio (HR) 2.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.93-2.94; P readmission (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.67-1.45; P = 0.94). In this hospitalized HF trial population, a significant majority of 30-day readmissions were for non-HF causes and one-third of readmissions occurred in the first 7 days. Early and late readmissions within the 30-day timeframe were associated with similarly increased risk for death. Continued efforts to optimize multidisciplinary transitional care are warranted to improve rates of early readmission. © 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2017 European Society of Cardiology.

An Experimental Study of Shear-Dominated Failure in the 2013 Sandia Fracture Challenge Specimen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Corona, Edmundo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Deibler, Lisa Anne [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Reedlunn, Benjamin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ingraham, Mathew Duffy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williams, Shelley [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-04-01

This report presents an experimental study motivated by results obtained during the 2013 Sandia Fracture Challenge. The challenge involved A286 steel, shear-dominated compression specimens whose load-deflection response contained a load maximum fol- lowed by significant displacement under decreasing load, ending with a catastrophic fracture. Blind numerical simulations deviated from the experiments well before the maximum load and did not predict the failure displacement. A series of new tests were conducted on specimens machined from the original A286 steel stock to learn more about the deformation and failure processes in the specimen and potentially improve future numerical simulations. The study consisted of several uniaxial tension tests to explore anisotropy in the material, and a set of new tests on the compression speci- men. In some compression specimen tests, stereo digital image correlation (DIC) was used to measure the surface strain fields local to the region of interest. In others, the compression specimen was loaded to a given displacement prior to failure, unloaded, sectioned, and imaged under the microscope to determine when material damage first appeared and how it spread. The experiments brought the following observations to light. The tensile tests revealed that the plastic response of the material is anisotropic. DIC during the shear- dominated compression tests showed that all three in-plane surface strain components had maxima in the order of 50% at the maximum load. Sectioning of the specimens revealed no signs of material damage at the point where simulations deviated from the experiments. Cracks and other damage did start to form approximately when the max- imum load was reached, and they grew as the load decreased, eventually culminating in catastrophic failure of the specimens. In addition to the steel specimens, a similar study was carried out for aluminum 7075-T651 specimens. These specimens achieved much lower loads and displacements

TOVS data analysis during the catastrophic floods of Bangladesh of 1987 and 1988 and Cyclone of 1985

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choudhury, A.M.

1990-08-01

Bangladesh has witnessed catastrophic floods in recent years so much so that in 1988 two-thirds of the country was flooded. This had created a world-wide attention. NOAA AVHRR and LANDSAT TM data have been analyzed to monitor floods. TOVS data prior to flooding, have also been analyzed to find out the causes of abnormal rainfall in the catchment area, responsible for flooding. TOVS data of the cyclone of 25 May 1985 which hit Bangladesh have also been analyzed. Satellite imagery can be very effectively used in the early warning of floods and cyclones. (author). 4 refs

Philosophical Anthropology, Ethics and Political Philosophy in an Age of Impending Catastrophe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arran Gare

2009-11-01

Full Text Available  In this paper it is argued that philosophical anthropology is central to ethics and politics. The denial of this has facilitated the triumph of debased notions of humans developed by Hobbes which has facilitated the enslavement of people to the logic of the global market, a logic which is now destroying the ecological conditions for civilization and most life on Earth. Reviving the classical understanding of the central place of philosophical anthropology to ethics and politics, the early work of Hegel and Marx is explicated, defended and further developed by interpreting this through developments in post-mechanistic science. Overcoming the opposition between the sciences and the humanities, it is suggested that the conception of humans developed in this way can orient people in their struggle for the liberty to avert a global ecological catastrophe.

Predictors of treatment failure among pulmonary tuberculosis ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Introduction: Early identification of Tuberculosis (TB) treatment failure using cost effective means is urgently needed in developing nations. The study set out to describe affordable predictors of TB treatment failure in an African setting. Objective: To determine the predictors of treatment failure among patients with sputum ...

Catastrophe Bonds. From Structure to Strategy – A Cluster Analysis at European Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura-Gabriela CONSTANTIN

2014-12-01

Full Text Available As a core activity and discipline of corporate management and corporate governance, risk management is, especially nowadays, a central part in pursuing the sustainable development desiderates, both from the perspective of the firm and of the society as a whole.Considering the negative impact natural catastrophes have on the companies’ and countries’ competitiveness, the development of sustainable financial products that make a contribution to transferring the risk and allocating the capital in case of disasters stands for a continual preoccupation, especially for the (reinsurance industry, while the study of catastrophe bonds – insurance-linked securities – is of interest in the specialized literature. In this context, the scope of the present research is to expand the empirical studies within this field while examining the link between the structure of the catastrophe bonds and the risk management approach employed while accessing the capital markets through this transactions.The methodology entailed clustering a selection of transactions developed by European cedents based on the size of each issue and correlating the results with an innovative score, developed to encompass several important catastrophe bonds structural components.The findings reflect that the general structural elements of the financial transactions reflect closely the corporate approach regarding the innovative risk intermediation instruments for the examined catastrophe bonds deals. The outcomes also emphasize, as expected, that companies with a stronger presence on this market seem to have a more sophisticated risk management approach.

Remembering pain after surgery: a longitudinal examination of the role of pain catastrophizing in children's and parents' recall.

Science.gov (United States)

Noel, Melanie; Rabbitts, Jennifer A; Tai, Gabrielle G; Palermo, Tonya M

2015-05-01

Children's memories for pain play a powerful role in their pain experiences. Parents' memories may also influence children's pain experiences, by influencing parent-child interactions about pain and children's cognitions and behaviors. Pain catastrophizing of children and parents has been implicated as a factor underlying memory biases; however, this has not been empirically examined. The current longitudinal study is the first to examine the role of pain catastrophizing of children and parents in the development of their pain memories after surgery. Participants were 49 youth (32 girls) aged 10 to 18 years undergoing major surgery and their parents. One week before surgery, children and parents completed measures of pain catastrophizing. Two weeks after surgery (the acute recovery period), children and parents completed measures of child pain intensity and affect. Two to 4 months after surgery, children's and parents' memories of child pain intensity and affect were elicited. Hierarchical linear regression models revealed that over and above covariates, parent catastrophizing about their child's pain (magnification, rumination) accounted for a significant portion of variance in children's affective and parents' sensory pain memories. Although parent catastrophizing had a direct effect on pain memories, mediation analyses revealed that child catastrophizing (helplessness) indirectly influenced children's and parents' pain memories through the child's postoperative pain experience. Findings highlight that aspects of catastrophic thinking about child pain before surgery are linked to distressing pain memories several months later. Although both child and parent catastrophizing influence pain memory development, parent catastrophizing is most influential to both children's and parents' evolving cognitions about child pain.

Breast conservation treatment of early stage breast cancer: patterns of failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leborgne, Felix; Leborgne, Jose H; Ortega, Bettys; Doldan, Raquel; Zubizarreta, Eduardo

1995-02-15

Purpose: This study retrospectively assesses the patterns of failure in conservatively treated early stage breast cancer patients by correlating various clinical, pathologic, and treatment-related factors with local, axillary, and distant relapse. Methods and Materials: Between 1973 and 1990, 796 patients (817 breasts) received breast conservation surgery followed by radiotherapy. Local recurrences were counted as events even if they occurred simultaneously or after the appearance of axillary or distant metastases. Results: The 10-year actuarial relative disease-free survival (DFS) rate for T1N0, T2N0, and T1-2N1 was 82%, 71%, and 54%, respectively. Stage N0 patients had a significant DFS advantage over N1 patients (p = 0.02). The 15-year actuarial local recurrence-free rate for T1 and T2 tumors was 82% and 87%, respectively (p = nonsignificant). Univariate analysis identified three significant risk factors for local relapse: (a) 48 breasts with tumors showing an extensive intraductal component had a crude local recurrence rate of 23% compared to 8% for 769 breasts without intraductal component (p 0.0016); (b) the actuarial 10-year local recurrence-free rate for patients under age 40 years was 64% compared to 88% for patients over 40 years (p < 0.0001); (c) the 10-year actuarial local recurrence-free rate for 416 postmenopausal women without adjuvant tamoxifen was 83% compared to 97% for 107 postmenopausal women with tamoxifen (p = 0.0479). Salvage therapy for operable local recurrent patients resulted in a 8-year actuarial DFS rate of 47%, significantly lower than that obtained with primary treatment. The incidence of axillary relapse as the first sign of recurrence was 2%, and could be correlated with the lack of axillary dissection (p < 0.0000005) and primary tumor size (p = 0.03). Radiotherapy to the axilla did not influence axillary relapse. Actuarial 5-year DFS rate after treatment of isolated axillary recurrence was 27%. Axillary failure was a marker for

Breast conservation treatment of early stage breast cancer: patterns of failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leborgne, Felix; Leborgne, Jose H.; Ortega, Bettys; Doldan, Raquel; Zubizarreta, Eduardo

1995-01-01

Purpose: This study retrospectively assesses the patterns of failure in conservatively treated early stage breast cancer patients by correlating various clinical, pathologic, and treatment-related factors with local, axillary, and distant relapse. Methods and Materials: Between 1973 and 1990, 796 patients (817 breasts) received breast conservation surgery followed by radiotherapy. Local recurrences were counted as events even if they occurred simultaneously or after the appearance of axillary or distant metastases. Results: The 10-year actuarial relative disease-free survival (DFS) rate for T1N0, T2N0, and T1-2N1 was 82%, 71%, and 54%, respectively. Stage N0 patients had a significant DFS advantage over N1 patients (p = 0.02). The 15-year actuarial local recurrence-free rate for T1 and T2 tumors was 82% and 87%, respectively (p = nonsignificant). Univariate analysis identified three significant risk factors for local relapse: (a) 48 breasts with tumors showing an extensive intraductal component had a crude local recurrence rate of 23% compared to 8% for 769 breasts without intraductal component (p 0.0016); (b) the actuarial 10-year local recurrence-free rate for patients under age 40 years was 64% compared to 88% for patients over 40 years (p < 0.0001); (c) the 10-year actuarial local recurrence-free rate for 416 postmenopausal women without adjuvant tamoxifen was 83% compared to 97% for 107 postmenopausal women with tamoxifen (p = 0.0479). Salvage therapy for operable local recurrent patients resulted in a 8-year actuarial DFS rate of 47%, significantly lower than that obtained with primary treatment. The incidence of axillary relapse as the first sign of recurrence was 2%, and could be correlated with the lack of axillary dissection (p < 0.0000005) and primary tumor size (p = 0.03). Radiotherapy to the axilla did not influence axillary relapse. Actuarial 5-year DFS rate after treatment of isolated axillary recurrence was 27%. Axillary failure was a marker for

Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2000-01-01

Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

OpenAIRE

Taub, Chloe J.; Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.; Mackey, Sean C.; Darnall, Beth D.

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic l...

Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Ballengee

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

Terrestrial Lidar Datasets of New Orleans, Louisiana, Levee Failures from Hurricane Katrina, August 29, 2005

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Brian D.; Kayen, Robert; Minasian, Diane L.; Reiss, Thomas

2009-01-01

Hurricane Katrina made landfall with the northern Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005, as one of the strongest hurricanes on record. The storm damage incurred in Louisiana included a number of levee failures that led to the inundation of approximately 85 percent of the metropolitan New Orleans area. Whereas extreme levels of storm damage were expected from such an event, the catastrophic failure of the New Orleans levees prompted a quick mobilization of engineering experts to assess why and how particular levees failed. As part of this mobilization, civil engineering members of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) performed terrestrial lidar topographic surveys at major levee failures in the New Orleans area. The focus of the terrestrial lidar effort was to obtain precise measurements of the ground surface to map soil displacements at each levee site, the nonuniformity of levee height freeboard, depth of erosion where scour occurred, and distress in structures at incipient failure. In total, we investigated eight sites in the New Orleans region, including both earth and concrete floodwall levee breaks. The datasets extend from the 17th Street Canal in the Orleans East Bank area to the intersection of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) with the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (MRGO) in the New Orleans East area. The lidar scan data consists of electronic files containing millions of surveyed points. These points characterize the topography of each levee's postfailure or incipient condition and are available for download through online hyperlinks. The data serve as a permanent archive of the catastrophic damage of Hurricane Katrina on the levee systems of New Orleans. Complete details of the data collection, processing, and georeferencing methodologies are provided in this report to assist in the visualization and analysis of the data by future users.

Reverse Catastrophe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Przemysław Czapliński

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945; Atomkrieg und andere Katastrophen. Zivil- und Katastrophenschutz in der Bundesrepublik und Grossbritannien nach 1945

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diebel, Martin [Zentrum fuer Zeithistorische Forschung, Potsdam (Germany)

2017-07-01

The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

Characteristics of Non-Cohesive Embankment Failure

Science.gov (United States)

Yusof, Z. M.; Wahab, A. K. A.; Ismail, Z.; Amerudin, S.

2018-04-01

Embankments are important infrastructure built to provide flood control. They also present risks to property and life due to their potential to fail and cause catastrophic flooding. To mitigate these risks, authorities and regulators need to carefully analyse and inspect dams to identify potential failure modes and protect against them. This paper presents morphology of an embankment study and its sediment behaviour of different grain sizes after the embankment fails. A few experiments were carried out for the embankment size of 1V:3H with different sediment grain sizes; medium and coarser sand. The embankment material used is non-cohesive soil with the embankment height of 0.1 m. The embankment is tested with inflows rate of Q = 0.8 L/s. Experimental results showed the peak discharge for the same inflow rate is affected by the shape of embankment breached. The peak discharge of medium grain size of the embankment is highest, which gave 3.63 L/s in comparison with a coarser embankment. This concludes that the embankment morphology patterns are dissimilar to each other. The flow and dimension of embankment are shown to influence the characteristics of embankment failure.

The Chernobyl catastrophe consequences in the Republic of Belarus. National report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konoplya, E.F.

1996-03-01

The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. The Chernobyl NPP catastrophe has led to the contamination of almost the fourth part of the territory of Belarus where there lived 2,2 million people. The damage caused to the republic by the catastrophe makes up 32 annual budgets of the republic of the pre-accident period in account for the 30-years period for its overcoming. Radioecological situation in Belarus is characterized by complexity and heterogeneous contamination of the territory by different radionuclides and their presence on all the components of the environment. It stipulates the plurality of ways of external and internal irradiation of the population and jeopardizes its health. There is registered the worsening of the population's health, of evacuated and inhabiting the contaminated areas as well, with increase of a number of somatic diseases, including oncological diseases, there are disorders in the metabolic processes and functions of the main systems of the organism. The demographic indices are decreasing. Particular concern causes the children's morbidity growth and genetic consequences of the accident. The contamination of agricultural lands has stipulated in the neighboring the Chernobyl NPP zone the impossibility of their use for food production. On the other lands it has been required to re-profile the farms and create new technologies of the agricultural production. There have been revealed the destructive tendencies in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population require considerable optimization. In spite of that for ten years passed after the catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. At the same time

The role of catastrophic geomorphic events in central Appalachian landscape evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, R.B.; Miller, A.J.; Smith, J.A.

1989-01-01

Catastrophic geomorphic events are taken as those that are large, sudden, and rare on human timescales. In the nonglaciated, low-seismicity central Appalachians, these are dominantly floods and landslides. Evaluation of the role of catastrophic events in landscape evolution includes assessment of their contributions to denudation and formation of prominent landscape features, and how they vary through space and time. Tropical storm paths and topographic barriers at the Blue Ridge and Allegheny Front create significant climatic variability across the Appalachians. For moderate floods, the influence of basin geology is apparent in modifying severity of flooding, but for the most extreme events, flood discharges relate mainly to rainfall characteristics such as intensity, duration, storm size, and location. Landslide susceptibility relates more directly to geologic controls that determine what intensity and duration of rainfall will trigger slope instability. Large floods and landslides are not necessarily effective in producing prominent geomorphic features. Large historic floods in the Piedmont have been minimally effective in producing prominent and persistent geomorphic features. In contrast, smaller floods in the Valley and Ridge produced erosional and depositional features that probably will require thousands of years to efface. Scars and deposits of debris slide-avalanches triggered on sandstone ridges recover slowly and persist much longer than scars and deposits of smaller landslides triggered on finer-grained regolith, even though the smaller landslides may have eroded greater aggregate volume. The surficial stratigraphic record can be used to extend the spatial and temporal limits of our knowledge of catastrophic events. Many prominent alluvial and colluvial landforms in the central Appalachians are composed of sediments that were deposited by processes similar to those observed in historic catastrophic events. Available stratigraphic evidence shows two

Application of failure mode and effect analysis in an assisted reproduction technology laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

Intra, Giulia; Alteri, Alessandra; Corti, Laura; Rabellotti, Elisa; Papaleo, Enrico; Restelli, Liliana; Biondo, Stefania; Garancini, Maria Paola; Candiani, Massimo; Viganò, Paola

2016-08-01

Assisted reproduction technology laboratories have a very high degree of complexity. Mismatches of gametes or embryos can occur, with catastrophic consequences for patients. To minimize the risk of error, a multi-institutional working group applied failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to each critical activity/step as a method of risk assessment. This analysis led to the identification of the potential failure modes, together with their causes and effects, using the risk priority number (RPN) scoring system. In total, 11 individual steps and 68 different potential failure modes were identified. The highest ranked failure modes, with an RPN score of 25, encompassed 17 failures and pertained to "patient mismatch" and "biological sample mismatch". The maximum reduction in risk, with RPN reduced from 25 to 5, was mostly related to the introduction of witnessing. The critical failure modes in sample processing were improved by 50% in the RPN by focusing on staff training. Three indicators of FMEA success, based on technical skill, competence and traceability, have been evaluated after FMEA implementation. Witnessing by a second human operator should be introduced in the laboratory to avoid sample mix-ups. These findings confirm that FMEA can effectively reduce errors in assisted reproduction technology laboratories. Copyright © 2016 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Renal failure in patients with multiple myeloma.

Science.gov (United States)

Almueilo, Samir H

2015-01-01

Renal dysfunction is encountered in 20-25% of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) at the time of diagnosis. There is often a precipitating event. Several biochemical and clinical correlations with renal failure in MM have been reported. Renal failure in MM is associated with worse outcome of the disease. We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 64 patients with MM admitted to our institution during the period January 1992 to December 2012. Abnormal renal function was observed in 24 (37.5%) patients and 17 (26.6%) of them had renal failure; 14 of the 17 (82.4%) of patients with renal failure had Stage III MM. Urine Bence- Jones protein was positive in ten (58.8%) patients with renal failure versus ten (21.3%) patients without renal failure (P = 0.004). Potential precipitating factors of renal failure were determined in nine patients. Renal function normalized in 11 patients with simple measures, while six patients required hemodialysis; one remained dialysis dependent till time of death. Early mortality occurred in five (29.4%) patients with renal failure as compared with two (4.3%) patients in the group without renal failure (P = 0.005). In conclusion, renal failure is associated with a higher tumor burden and Bence-Jones proteinuria in patients with MM. It is reversible in the majority of patients; however, early mortality tends to be higher in patients with persistent renal failure.

Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

2012-01-01

In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

Meteorological Satellites (METSAT) and Earth Observing System (EOS) Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Critical Items List (CIL)

Science.gov (United States)

1996-01-01

This Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is for the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) instruments that are being designed and manufactured for the Meteorological Satellites Project (METSAT) and the Earth Observing System (EOS) integrated programs. The FMEA analyzes the design of the METSAT and EOS instruments as they currently exist. This FMEA is intended to identify METSAT and EOS failure modes and their effect on spacecraft-instrument and instrument-component interfaces. The prime objective of this FMEA is to identify potential catastrophic and critical failures so that susceptibility to the failures and their effects can be eliminated from the METSAT/EOS instruments.

A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

2017-03-01

An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verguet, Stéphane; Riumallo-Herl, Carlos; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; Sumner, Tom; Lalli, Marek; White, Richard G.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Cohen, Ted; Foster, Nicola; Chatterjee, Susmita; Sweeney, Sedona; Baena, Inés Garcia; Lönnroth, Knut; Weil, Diana E.; Vassall, Anna

2017-01-01

The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic

Factors affecting catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses in China: policy implications of universal health insurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Wu, Qunhong; Xu, Ling; Legge, David; Hao, Yanhua; Gao, Lijun; Ning, Ning; Wan, Gang

2012-09-01

To assess the degree to which the Chinese people are protected from catastrophic household expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses and to explore the health system and structural factors influencing the first of these outcomes. Data were derived from the Fourth National Health Service Survey. An analysis of catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses was undertaken with a sample of 55 556 households of different characteristics and located in rural and urban settings in different parts of the country. Logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. The rate of catastrophic health expenditure was 13.0%; that of impoverishment was 7.5%. Rates of catastrophic health expenditure were higher among households having members who were hospitalized, elderly, or chronically ill, as well as in households in rural or poorer regions. A combination of adverse factors increased the risk of catastrophic health expenditure. Families enrolled in the urban employee or resident insurance schemes had lower rates of catastrophic health expenditure than those enrolled in the new rural corporative scheme. The need for and use of health care, demographics, type of benefit package and type of provider payment method were the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. Although China has greatly expanded health insurance coverage, financial protection remains insufficient. Policy-makers should focus on designing improved insurance plans by expanding the benefit package, redesigning cost sharing arrangements and provider payment methods and developing more effective expenditure control strategies.

Catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for health and poverty nexus: evidence from Senegal.

Science.gov (United States)

Séne, Ligane Massamba; Cissé, Momath

2015-09-01

Out-of-pocket payments are the primary source through which health expenditure is met in Senegal. However, these payments are financial burdens that lead to impoverishment when they become catastrophic. The purpose of this study is to cast light on the determinants of catastrophic household out-of-pocket health expenditures and to assess their implications on poverty. The 2011 poverty monitoring survey is used in this study. This survey aims to draw poverty profiles and to highlight the socio-economic characteristics of different social groups. In line with the concerns raised by the new Supplemental Poverty Measure, poverty statistics are adjusted to take into account household health expenditures and to estimate their impoverishing effects. To identify the determinants of the magnitude of catastrophic health expenditure, we implement a seemingly unrelated equations system of Tobit regressions to take into account censoring through a conditional mixed-process estimator procedure. We identify major causes of catastrophic expenditures, such as the level of overall health spending, the expensiveness of health goods and services, the characteristics of health facilities, the health stock shocks, the lack of insurance, etc. Results show evidence that catastrophic health expenditures jeopardize household welfare for some people that fall into poverty as a result of negative effects on disposable income and disruption of the material living standards of households. Our findings warrant further policy improvements to minimize the financial risks of out-of-pocket health expenditures and increase the efficiency of health care system for more effective poverty reduction strategies.

[11C]-Acetoacetate PET imaging: a potential early marker for cardiac heart failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croteau, Etienne; Tremblay, Sébastien; Gascon, Suzanne; Dumulon-Perreault, Véronique; Labbé, Sébastien M.; Rousseau, Jacques A.; Cunnane, Stephen C.; Carpentier, André C.; Bénard, François; Lecomte, Roger

2014-01-01

The ketone body acetoacetate could be used as an alternate nutrient for the heart, and it also has the potential to improve cardiac function in an ischemic–reperfusion model or reduce the mitochondrial production of oxidative stress involved in cardiotoxicity. In this study, [ 11 C]-acetoacetate was investigated as an early marker of intracellular damage in heart failure. Methods: A rat cardiotoxicity heart failure model was induced by doxorubicin, Dox(+). [ 14 C]-Acetoacetate, a non-positron (β −) emitting radiotracer, was used to characterize the arterial blood input function and myocardial mitochondrial uptake. Afterward, [ 11 C]-acetoacetate (β +) myocardial PET images were obtained for kinetic analysis and heart function assessment in control Dox(−) (n = 15) and treated Dox(+) (n = 6) rats. The uptake rate (K 1 ) and myocardial clearance rate (k 2 or k mono ) were extracted. Results: [ 14 C]-Acetoacetate in the blood was increased in Dox(+), from 2 min post-injection until the last withdrawal point when the heart was harvested, as well as the uptake in the heart and myocardial mitochondria (unpaired t-test, p < 0.05). PET kinetic analysis of [ 11 C]-acetoacetate showed that rate constants K 1 , k 2 and k mono were decreased in Dox(+) (p < 0.05) combined with a reduction of 24% of the left ventricular ejection fraction (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Radioactive acetoacetate ex vivo analysis [ 14 C], and in vivo kinetic [ 11 C] studies provided evidence that [ 11 C]-acetoacetate can assess heart failure Dox(+). Contrary to myocardial flow reserve (rest–stress protocol), [ 11 C]-acetoacetate can be used to assess reduced kinetic rate constants without requirement of hyperemic stress response. The proposed [ 11 C]-acetoacetate cardiac radiotracer in the investigation of heart disease is novel and paves the way to a potential role for [ 11 C]-acetoacetate in cardiac pathophysiology

The public health challenge of early growth failure in India.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, M F; Martorell, R

2013-05-01

Recent recognition of the early onset and high prevalence of wasting (30%) and stunting (20%) among infants 0-5 months in India draws attention to the need to understand the causes and develop prevention strategies. Such growth failure has dire consequences in the short (increased mortality) and long-term (loss of human capital and increased risk of chronic diseases). Food interventions before 6 months will increase morbidity/mortality through contamination in settings of poor sanitation and hygiene. Waiting to improve nutrition only after the initiation of complementary feeding at 6 months is a missed opportunity and may permanently alter life trajectory and potential. This underscores the importance of maternal nutrition. Iron and folic acid and protein energy supplementation during pregnancy are interventions that can improve maternal nutrition and birth outcomes. Maternal supplementation during lactation should be considered as a means to improve maternal and child outcomes, although the evidence needs strengthening. Support and counseling are also required to improve maternal diets and promote exclusive breastfeeding. Programs focused on improving maternal nutrition across the continuum of preconception, pregnancy and lactation are likely to have the greatest impact as mothers are central gatekeepers to the health and future of their children.

Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tharani Loganathan

Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 2. Building laboratory capability by selecting and developing analytical methodologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Magnuson, Matthew; Campisano, Romy; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Hall, Kathy; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Silvestri, Erin; Smith, Terry; Willison, Stuart; Ernst, Hiba

2014-11-01

Catastrophic incidents can generate a large number of samples of analytically diverse types, including forensic, clinical, environmental, food, and others. Environmental samples include water, wastewater, soil, air, urban building and infrastructure materials, and surface residue. Such samples may arise not only from contamination from the incident but also from the multitude of activities surrounding the response to the incident, including decontamination. This document summarizes a range of activities to help build laboratory capability in preparation for sample analysis following a catastrophic incident, including selection and development of fit-for-purpose analytical methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants. Fit-for-purpose methods are those which have been selected to meet project specific data quality objectives. For example, methods could be fit for screening contamination in the early phases of investigation of contamination incidents because they are rapid and easily implemented, but those same methods may not be fit for the purpose of remediating the environment to acceptable levels when a more sensitive method is required. While the exact data quality objectives defining fitness-for-purpose can vary with each incident, a governing principle of the method selection and development process for environmental remediation and recovery is based on achieving high throughput while maintaining high quality analytical results. This paper illustrates the result of applying this principle, in the form of a compendium of analytical methods for contaminants of interest. The compendium is based on experience with actual incidents, where appropriate and available. This paper also discusses efforts aimed at adaptation of existing methods to increase fitness-for-purpose and development of innovative methods when necessary. The contaminants of interest are primarily those potentially released through catastrophes resulting from malicious activity

Development of the Catastrophe Bonds and their correlation with other financial instruments

OpenAIRE

Čavojec, Ján

2009-01-01

This master thesis discusses the niche of reinsurance business -- catastrophe bonds. It provides a brief description of reinsurance in general, insurance-linked securities and catastrophe bonds. The goal of this thesis is to describe the development of cat bond market and the influence of economic and natural shocks on it. In order to analyze the effect, quarter issuance data are used together with Swiss Re Cat Bonds return indexes. In addition, several other variables (i.e. Munich Re and Swi...

Management of early pregnancy failure and induced abortion by family medicine educators.

Science.gov (United States)

Herbitter, Cara; Bennett, Ariana; Schubert, Finn D; Bennett, Ian M; Gold, Marji

2013-01-01

Reproductive health care, including treatment of early pregnancy failure (EPF) and induced abortion, is an integral part of patient-centered care provided by family physicians, but data suggest that comprehensive training is not widely available to family medicine residents. The purpose of this study was to assess EPF and induced abortion management practices and attitudes of family medicine physician educators throughout the United States and Canada. These data were collected as part of a cross-sectional survey conducted by the Council of Academic Family Medicine Educational Research Alliance that was distributed via E-mail to 3152 practicing physician members of Council of Academic Family Medicine organizations. The vast majority of respondents (88.2%) had treated EPF, whereas few respondents (15.3%) had provided induced medication or aspiration abortions. Of those who had treated EPF, most had offered medication management (72.7%), whereas a minority had provided aspiration management (16.4%). Almost all respondents (95%) agreed that EPF management is within the scope of family medicine, and nearly three-quarters (73.2%) agreed that early induced abortion is within the scope of family medicine. Our findings suggest that family physician educators are more experienced with EPF management than elective abortion. Given the overlap of skills needed for provision of these services, there is the potential to increase the number of family physician faculty members providing induced abortions.

Catastrophic disruptions as the origin of bilobate comets

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Stephen R.; Michel, Patrick; Jutzi, Martin; Marchi, Simone; Zhang, Yun; Richardson, Derek C.

2018-05-01

Several comets observed at close range have bilobate shapes1, including comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P/C-G), which was imaged by the European Space Agency's Rosetta mission2,3. Bilobate comets are thought to be primordial because they are rich in supervolatiles (for example, N2 and CO) and have a low bulk density, which implies that their formation requires a very low-speed accretion of two bodies. However, slow accretion does not only occur during the primordial phase of the Solar System; it can also occur at later epochs as part of the reaccumulation process resulting from the collisional disruption of a larger body4, so this cannot directly constrain the age of bilobate comets. Here, we show by numerical simulation that 67P/C-G and other elongated or bilobate comets can be formed in the wake of catastrophic collisional disruptions of larger bodies while maintaining their volatiles and low density throughout the process. Since this process can occur at any epoch of our Solar System's history, from early on through to the present day5, there is no need for these objects to be formed primordially. These findings indicate that observed prominent geological features, such as pits and stratified surface layers4,5, may not be primordial.

GLACIER DEGRADATION AND CATASTROPHIC MUDFLOWS ORIGIN FROM THE MODERN GLACIAL-MORAINE BODIES IN THE ELBRUS REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. A. Zolotarev

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Mechanism of formation of the catastrophic mudflows in different glacial valleys of Elbrus region at the present stage of glacial degradation is described. The important role of the buried ice in the formation of catastrophic mudflows that affected Tyrnyauz in the XX century was revealed as a result of remote monitoring of changes in glacial-moraine complex of Kayarta river. The dynamics of glacial lakes in the Adyl-Su valley in the Bashkara Glacier region was described and probability of their breakthrough was estimated. The quantitative indicators of the dynamics of the landslide in the Kubasanty valley were obtained as a result of remote monitoring, and its influence on the formation of catastrophic mudflows is discovered. Various possible methods of catastrophic mudflows prevention not requiring expensive protective constructions are discussed.

The application of catastrophe theory to image analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

2001-01-01

In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the inuence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and the

Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

2014-01-01

Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890 ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

2003-01-01

Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roethlein, B.

1996-01-01

Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.) [de

The reciprocal relationship between daily fatigue and catastrophizing following cancer treatment: Affect and physical activity as potential mediators.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Fabiola; Stephenson, Ellen; DeLongis, Anita; Smink, Ans; Van Ginkel, Robert J; Tuinman, Marrit A; Hagedoorn, Mariët

2018-03-01

Fatigue is a distressing symptom many cancer patients experience even after completion of treatment. Although theory and empirical evidence indicate that negative cognitions perpetuate fatigue after completion of treatment, insight into how this process unfolds in daily life is limited. This study used an intensive longitudinal design to investigate the reciprocal relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life and whether affective and behavioral processes mediate these relationships. Post-treatment colorectal cancer patients (n = 101) completed daily diaries (14 days, 3 times daily) regarding their fatigue, catastrophizing, positive and negative affect, and physical activity. Multilevel modeling was applied to investigate within-person associations within days. Analyses revealed a positive reciprocal relationship between fatigue and catastrophizing throughout the day. That is, high levels of catastrophizing were associated with increases in fatigue within patients. In turn, but to a lesser extent, high levels of fatigue predicted increases in catastrophizing at the next assessment. Low positive affect and high negative affect mediated the effect of catastrophizing on increases in fatigue. Only negative affect mediated the reverse relationship. Physical activity did not mediate either relationship. This study provides evidence for a mutually reinforcing relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life, which might explain the perpetuation of fatigue after completion of cancer treatment. Fatigue-specific cognitive behavior therapy could be improved by educating patients about this daily reciprocal relationship, train them to quickly replace catastrophizing thoughts in daily life, and help them to cope with affective changes induced by fatigue. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajkovic, Milan; Skoric, Milos

2009-01-01

Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

Failure of cervical arthroplasty in a patient with adjacent segment disease associated with Klippel-Feil syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioannis D Papanastassiou

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Cervical arthroplasty may be justified in patients with Klippel-Feil syndrome (KFS in order to preserve cervical motion. The aim of this paper is to report an arthroplasty failure in a patient with KFS. A 36-year-old woman with KFS underwent two-level arthroplasty for adjacent segment disc degeneration. Anterior migration of the cranial prosthesis was encountered 5 months postoperatively and was successfully revised with anterior cervical fusion. Cervical arthroplasty in an extensively stiff and fused neck is challenging and may lead to catastrophic failure. Although motion preservation is desirable in KFS, the special biomechanical features may hinder arthroplasty. Fusion or hybrid constructs may represent more reasonable options, especially when multiple fused segments are present.

Catastrophe Theory: A Unified Model for Educational Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Cryer, Patricia; Elton, Lewis

1990-01-01

Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's theory of motivation at work was used to create a model of change that unifies and extends Lewin's two separate stage and force field models. This new model is used to analyze the behavior of academics as they adapt to the changing university environment. (Author/MLW)

Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

KAUST Repository

Albar, Arwa

2018-02-09

The electronic properties of interphase boundaries are of basic importance for most materials, particularly when those properties deviate strongly from the bulk behavior. We introduce a mechanism that can result in metallicity at stoichiometric interphase boundaries between semiconductors based on the idea of polar catastrophe, which is usually considered only in the context of heterostructures. To this end, we perform ab initio calculations within density functional theory to investigate the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe the formation of a hole gas between the semiconductors SnO and SnO2. To explain these findings, we provide a generalized theory based on the idea that the charge density discontinuity between SnO and SnO2, a consequence of lattice mismatch, drives a polar catastrophe scenario. As a result, SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries can develop metallicity depending on the grain size. The concept of metallicity due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity is of general validity and applies to many interphase boundaries with lattice mismatch.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in pregnancy, a diagnosis that should not be missed.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoayek, Jennifer G; Moussa, Hind N; Rehman, Hina A; Nasab, Susan Hosseini; Blackwell, Sean C; Sibai, Baha M

2016-12-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is an accelerated form of the antiphospholipid antibody syndrome resulting in multi-organ ischemia and failure. It is a rare and life-threatening condition that can be easily mistaken with hemolysis elevated liver enzymes low platelets syndrome, thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, and hemolytic uremic syndrome. In order to make a diagnosis, it is required to have multi-organ thrombosis over 1 week affecting at least three organs or systems, and to have positive antiphospholipid antibody on two occasions (6 weeks apart), and histopathologic confirmation of small vessel occlusion. However, due to similarities in clinical and laboratory findings between CAPS and some other obstetric complications, potential misdiagnosis or delay in diagnosis are common, increasing the risk of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. In this review we summarized information presented in previous studies, focusing on CAPS related to pregnancy. We reviewed diagnostic criteria, differential diagnosis, and common presentation ranging from malaise, abdominal pain, dyspnea, hypertension, to altered mental status and seizures. We also discussed management in pregnancy and included a detailed algorithm with steps to take. Of note, the most significant reduction in mortality was seen in patients receiving triple therapy which will be discussed in this review.

Effects of topical bevacizumab application on early bleb failure after trabeculectomy: observational case series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Klos-Rola J

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Justyna Klos-Rola, Maria Tulidowicz-Bielak, Tomasz Zarnowski Department of Ophthalmology, Medical University of Lublin, Lublin, Poland Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of topical bevacizumab on the formation and function of filtering blebs in eyes with early bleb failure after antiglaucoma surgery. Methods: Of all patients who underwent mitomycin-augmented trabeculectomy for glaucoma in the Department of Ophthalmology at the Medical University in Lublin, Poland, between March 2009 and March 2010, a total of 21 eyes from 20 patients with injected filtration bleb 9.8 ± 4.7 days after surgery were included in this observational case series. All patients were treated with standard steroid therapy and topical bevacizumab 5 mg/mL five times a day for 20.9 ± 9.8 days. Patients were followed up every other day, and a full eye examination was performed 14, 30, 60, and 180 days after initiation of treatment. Blebs were evaluated for vascularity by slit-lamp examination with concomitant photographic documentation and intraocular pressure measurement. Results: Elevated functional bleb with significantly reduced vascularity was present in 16 eyes, and was flat and nonfunctional in five eyes. Intraocular pressure in all eyes decreased from a mean of 26.6 ± 9.6 mmHg before surgery to 14.6 ± 7.7 mmHg and 15.8 ± 8.3 mmHg at 2 and 6 months after surgery, respectively. Filtration bleb leak was noted in three eyes while on treatment with bevacizumab. Conclusion: Topical application of bevacizumab might favor functional bleb formation after trabeculectomy in eyes with a high risk of failure. Keywords: glaucoma, trabeculectomy, bleb failure, bevacizumab

A CATASTROPHIC-CUM-RESTORATIVE QUEUING SYSTEM WITH CORRELATED BATCH ARRIVALS AND VARIABLE CAPACITY

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Rakesh Kumar

2008-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we study a catastrophic-cum-restorative queuing system with correlated batch arrivals and service in batches of variable sizes. We perform the transient analysis of the queuing model. We obtain the Laplace Transform of the probability generating function of system size. Finally, some particular cases of the model have been derived and discussed. Keywords: Queue length, Catastrophes, Correlated batch arrivals, Broadband services, Variable service capacity, and Restoration.

Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeeyon Janet Kim

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

Classical and quantum fold catastrophe in the presence of axial symmetry

Science.gov (United States)

Dhont, G.; Zhilinskií, B. I.

2008-11-01

We introduce a family of Hamiltonians with two degrees of freedom, axial symmetry and complete integrability. The potential function depends on coordinates and one control parameter. A fold catastrophe typically occurs in such a family of potentials and its consequences on the global dynamics are investigated through the energy-momentum map which defines the singular fibration of the four-dimensional phase space. The two inequivalent local canonical forms of the catastrophe are presented: the first case corresponds to the appearance of a second sheet in the image of the energy-momentum map while the second case is associated with the breaking of an already existing second sheet. A special effort is placed on the description of the singularities. In particular, the existence of cuspidal tori is related to a second-order contact point between the energy level set and the reduced phase space. The quantum mechanical aspects of the changes induced by the fold catastrophe are investigated with the quantum eigenstates computed for an octic potential and are interpreted through the quantum-classical correspondence. We note that the singularity exposed in this paper is not an obstruction to a global definition of action-angle variables.

NEESROCK: A Physical and Numerical Modeling Investigation of Seismically Induced Rock-Slope Failure

Science.gov (United States)

Applegate, K. N.; Wartman, J.; Keefer, D. K.; Maclaughlin, M.; Adams, S.; Arnold, L.; Gibson, M.; Smith, S.

2013-12-01

Worldwide, seismically induced rock-slope failures have been responsible for approximately 30% of the most significant landslide catastrophes of the past century. They are among the most common, dangerous, and still today, least understood of all seismic hazards. Seismically Induced Rock-Slope Failure: Mechanisms and Prediction (NEESROCK) is a major research initiative that fully integrates physical modeling (geotechnical centrifuge) and advanced numerical simulations (discrete element modeling) to investigate the fundamental mechanisms governing the stability of rock slopes during earthquakes. The research is part of the National Science Foundation-supported Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation Research (NEES) program. With its focus on fractures and rock materials, the project represents a significant departure from the traditional use of the geotechnical centrifuge for studying soil, and pushes the boundaries of physical modeling in new directions. In addition to advancing the fundamental understanding of the rock-slope failure process under seismic conditions, the project is developing improved rock-slope failure assessment guidelines, analysis procedures, and predictive tools. Here, we provide an overview of the project, present experimental and numerical modeling results, discuss special considerations for the use of synthetic rock materials in physical modeling, and address the suitability of discrete element modeling for simulating the dynamic rock-slope failure process.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes of respiratory failure during pregnancy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen-Yiu Hung

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Obstetric patients comprise a limited portion of intensive care unit patients, but they often present with unfamiliar conditions and exhibit the potential for catastrophic deterioration. This study evaluated the maternal and neonatal outcomes of respiratory failure during pregnancy. Methods: Information on 71 patients at >25 weeks gestation in the ICU with respiratory failure was recorded between 2009 and 2013. The characteristics and outcomes of mothers and fetuses were determined through a retrospective chart review and evaluated using Student's t test, chi-square test, and Fisher's exact test. Results: The leading causes of respiratory failure were postpartum hemorrhage and severe preeclampsia in the obstetric causes group and pneumonia in the nonobstetric causes group during pregnancy and the peripartum period. The non-obstetric causes group exhibited a higher incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome and renal replacement therapy as well as requiring more ventilator days. The patients in the obstetric causes group showed significant improvement after delivery in the partial pressure of arterial oxygen to the fraction of inspired oxygen and peak inspiratory pressure decrease. Both groups exhibited high incidences of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome. Neonatal complications resulting from meconium aspiration syndrome (MAS and sepsis were more common in the non-obstetric causes group; however, neurological development impairment was more common in the obstetric causes group. Conclusion: Obstetric cause was associated with longer ventilator free days and fewer episodes of ARDS after delivery. Neonatal complications resulting from different etiologies of respiratory failure were found to differ. Keywords: Acute respiratory distress syndrome, Neonatal, Obstetric, Outcome, Respiratory failure

Interdependence theory of tissue failure: bulk and boundary effects

Science.gov (United States)

Suma, Daniel; Acun, Aylin; Zorlutuna, Pinar; Vural, Dervis Can

2018-02-01

The mortality rate of many complex multicellular organisms increases with age, which suggests that net ageing damage is accumulative, despite remodelling processes. But how exactly do these little mishaps in the cellular level accumulate and spread to become a systemic catastrophe? To address this question we present experiments with synthetic tissues, an analytical model consistent with experiments, and a number of implications that follow the analytical model. Our theoretical framework describes how shape, curvature and density influences the propagation of failure in a tissue subjected to oxidative damage. We propose that ageing is an emergent property governed by interaction between cells, and that intercellular processes play a role that is at least as important as intracellular ones.

Co-delivery of paclitaxel and cetuximab by nanodiamond enhances mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yu-Wei; Raj, Emmanuel Naveen; Liao, Wei-Siang; Lin, Johnson; Liu, Kuang-Kai; Chen, Ting-Hua; Cheng, Hsiao-Chun; Wang, Chi-Ching; Li, Lily Yi; Chen, Chinpiao; Chao, Jui-I

2017-08-29

The poor intracellular uptake and non-specific binding of anticancer drugs into cancer cells are the bottlenecks in cancer therapy. Nanocarrier platforms provide the opportunities to improve the drug efficacy. Here we show a carbon-based nanomaterial nanodiamond (ND) that carried paclitaxel (PTX), a microtubule inhibitor, and cetuximab (Cet), a specific monoclonal antibody against epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), inducing mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition in human colorectal cancer (CRC). ND-PTX blocked the mitotic progression, chromosomal separation, and induced apoptosis in the CRC cells; however, NDs did not induce these effects. Conjugation of ND-PTX with Cet (ND-PTX-Cet) was specifically binding to the EGFR-positive CRC cells and enhanced the mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis induction. Besides, ND-PTX-Cet markedly decreased tumor size in the xenograft EGFR-expressed human CRC tumors of nude mice. Moreover, ND-PTX-Cet induced the mitotic marker protein phospho-histone 3 (Ser10) and apoptotic protein active-caspase 3 for mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis. Taken together, this study demonstrated that the co-delivery of PTX and Cet by ND enhanced the effects of mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis in vitro and in vivo, which may be applied in the human CRC therapy.

The shareholder wealth effects of insurance securitization: preliminary evidence from the catastrophe bond market

OpenAIRE

Hagendorff, Bjoern; Hagendorff, Jens; Keasey, Kevin

2013-01-01

Insurance securitization has long been hailed as an important tool to increase theunderwriting capacity for companies exposed to catastrophe-related risks. However, globalvolumes of insurance securitization have remained surprisingly low to date which raisesquestions over its benefits. In this paper, we examine changes in the market value ofinsurance and reinsurance firms which announce their engagement in insurance securitizationby issuing catastrophe (Cat) bonds. Consistent with the hithert...

Towards a whole-network risk assessment for railway bridge failures caused by scour during flood events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lamb Rob

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Localised erosion (scour during flood flow conditions can lead to costly damage or catastrophic failure of bridges, and in some cases loss of life or significant disruption to transport networks. Here, we take a broad scale view to assess risk associated with bridge scour during flood events over an entire infrastructure network, illustrating the analysis with data from the British railways. There have been 54 recorded events since 1846 in which scour led to the failure of railway bridges in Britain. These events tended to occur during periods of extremely high river flow, although there is uncertainty about the precise conditions under which failures occur, which motivates a probabilistic analysis of the failure events. We show how data from the historical bridge failures, combined with hydrological analysis, have been used to construct fragility curves that quantify the conditional probability of bridge failure as a function of river flow, accompanied by estimates of the associated uncertainty. The new fragility analysis is tested using flood events simulated from a national, spatial joint probability model for extremes in river flows. The combined models appear robust in comparison with historical observations of the expected number of bridge failures in a flood event, and provide an empirical basis for further broad-scale network risk analysis.

Electro-thermal Modeling of Modern Power Devices for Studying Abnormal Operating Conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Rui

in industrial power electronic systems in the range above 10 kW. The failure of IGBTs can be generally classified as catastrophic failures and wear out failures. A wear out failure is mainly induced by accumulated degradation with time, while a catastrophic failure is triggered by a single-event abnormal....... The objective of this project has been to model and predict the electro-thermal behavior of IGBT power modules under abnormal conditions, especially short circuits. A thorough investigation on catastrophic failure modes and mechanisms of modern power semiconductor devices, including IGBTs and power diodes, has...

Investigation for integration of the German Public Health Service in catastrophe and disaster prevention programs in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfenninger, E.; Koenig, S.; Himmelseher, S.

2004-01-01

This research project aimed at investigating the integration of the GPHS into the plans for civil defence and protection as well as catastrophe prevention of the Federal Republic of Germany. Following a comprehensive analysis of the current situation, potential proposals for an improved integrative approach will be presented. In view of the lack of topics relevant for medical care in disaster medicine in educational curricula and training programs for medical students and postgraduate board programs for public health physicians, a working group of the Civil Protection Board of the German Federal Ministry of the Interior already complained in their 'Report on execution of legal rules for protection and rescue of human life as well as restitution of public health after disaster' in 1999, that the integration of the GPHS into catastrophe and disaster prevention programs has insufficiently been solved. On a point-by-point approach, our project analysed the following issues: - Legislative acts for integration of the German Public Health Service into medical care in catastrophes and disasters to protect the civilian population of Germany and their implementation and execution. - Administrative rules and directives on state and district levels that show relationship to integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management and their implementation and execution. - Education and postgraduate training options for physicians and non-physician employees of the German Public health Service to prepare for medical care in catastrophes and disasters. - State of knowledge and experience of the German Public Health Service personnel in emergency and disaster medicine. - Evaluation of the German administrative catastrophe prevention authorities with regard to their integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management. - Development of a concept to remedy the

Can baseline ultrasound results help to predict failure to achieve DAS28 remission after 1 year of tight control treatment in early RA patients?

Science.gov (United States)

Ten Cate, D F; Jacobs, J W G; Swen, W A A; Hazes, J M W; de Jager, M H; Basoski, N M; Haagsma, C J; Luime, J J; Gerards, A H

2018-01-30

At present, there are no prognostic parameters unequivocally predicting treatment failure in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. We investigated whether baseline ultrasonography (US) findings of joints, when added to baseline clinical, laboratory, and radiographical data, could improve prediction of failure to achieve Disease Activity Score assessing 28 joints (DAS28) remission (baseline. Clinical, laboratory, and radiographical parameters were recorded. Primary analysis was the prediction by logistic regression of the absence of DAS28 remission 12 months after diagnosis and start of therapy. Of 194 patients included, 174 were used for the analysis, with complete data available for 159. In a multivariate model with baseline DAS28 (odds ratio (OR) 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-2.2), the presence of rheumatoid factor (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-5.1), and type of monitoring strategy (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.05-0.85), the addition of baseline US results for joints (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.89-1.04) did not significantly improve the prediction of failure to achieve DAS28 remission (likelihood ratio test, 1.04; p = 0.31). In an early RA population, adding baseline ultrasonography of the hands, wrists, and feet to commonly available baseline characteristics did not improve prediction of failure to achieve DAS28 remission at 12 months. Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01752309 . Registered on 19 December 2012.

Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relation between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Natoshia R; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

2014-12-01

Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning, and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors (overprotection, minimizing, and/or encouragement) in response to their child's pain interact with child coping characteristics (eg, catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relation between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children's levels of maladaptive coping (ie, pain catastrophizing). Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated in the study. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: Protection, Minimizing, and Encouragement/Monitoring subscales). Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relation between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relation between parent protectiveness and disability. The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined, in part, by the child's coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP.

A catastrophe in quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ignatovich, V.K.

2004-01-01

The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed

United States earthquake early warning system: how theory and analysis can save America before the big one happens

OpenAIRE

Rockabrand, Ryan

2017-01-01

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The United States is extremely vulnerable to catastrophic earthquakes. More than 143 million Americans may be threatened by damaging earthquakes in the next 50 years. This thesis argues that the United States is unprepared for the most catastrophic earthquakes the country faces today. Earthquake early warning systems are a major solution in practice to reduce economic risk, to protect property and the environment, and to save lives. Ot...

Pain Catastrophizing in Borderline Morbidly Obese and Morbidly Obese Individuals with Osteoarthritic Knee Pain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tamara J Somers

2008-01-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: There is limited information about how morbidly obese osteoarthritis (OA patients cope with the pain they experience. Pain catastrophizing is an important predictor of pain and adjustment in persons with persistent pain. This may be particularly relevant in the morbidly obese (body mass index [BMI] of 40 kg/m2 or greater OA population at risk for increased pain. The present study first examined whether borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients report higher levels of pain catastrophizing than a sample of OA patients in the overweight and obese category (BMI between 25 kg/m2 and 34 kg/m2. Next, it examined how pain catastrophizing is related to important indexes of pain and adjustment in borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients.

The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Medical Image Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.

2001-01-01

In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of

Catastrophe Optics Method to Determine the Micro-Nano Size Profiles at TPL of Liquid Films on a Solid Surface

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, David F.; McQuillen, J. B.; Sankovic, J. M.; Zhang, Nengli

2009-01-01

As discovered by recent studies, what directly affects the wetting and spreading is curvature in micro-region rather than the macroscopic contact angle. Measuring the profile of the micro-region becomes an important research topic. Recently, catastrophe optics has been applied to this kind of measurements. Optical catastrophe occurring in far field of waves of liquid-refracted laser beam implies a wealth of information about the liquid spreading not only for liquid drops but also for films. When a parallel laser beam passes through a liquid film on a slide glass at three-phase-line (TPL), very interesting optical image patterns occur on a screen far from the film. An analysis based on catastrophe optics discloses and interprets the formation of these optical image patterns. The analysis reveals that the caustic line manifested as the bright-thick line on the screen implies the lowest hierarchy of optical catastrophes, called fold caustic. This optical catastrophe is produced by the inflexion line on liquid surface at the liquid foot, which is formed not only in the spreading of drops but also in spreading of films. The generalized catastrophe optics method enables to identify the edge profiles and determine the edge foot height of liquid films. Keywords: Crossover region, Inflexion line, liquid edge foot, Catastrophe optics, Caustic and diffraction

Autologous Transplantation in Follicular Lymphoma with Early Therapy Failure: A National LymphoCare Study and Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Casulo, Carla; Friedberg, Jonathan W; Ahn, Kwang W; Flowers, Christopher; DiGilio, Alyssa; Smith, Sonali M; Ahmed, Sairah; Inwards, David; Aljurf, Mahmoud; Chen, Andy I; Choe, Hannah; Cohen, Jonathon; Copelan, Edward; Farooq, Umar; Fenske, Timothy S; Freytes, Cesar; Gaballa, Sameh; Ganguly, Siddhartha; Jethava, Yogesh; Kamble, Rammurti T; Kenkre, Vaishalee P; Lazarus, Hillard; Lazaryan, Aleksandr; Olsson, Richard F; Rezvani, Andrew R; Rizzieri, David; Seo, Sachiko; Shah, Gunjan L; Shah, Nina; Solh, Melham; Sureda, Anna; William, Basem; Cumpston, Aaron; Zelenetz, Andrew D; Link, Brian K; Hamadani, Mehdi

2017-12-11

Patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) experiencing early therapy failure (ETF) within 2 years of frontline chemoimmunotherapy have poor overall survival (OS). We analyzed data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) and the National LymphoCare Study (NLCS) to determine whether autologous hematopoietic cell transplant (autoHCT) can improve outcomes in this high-risk FL subgroup. ETF was defined as failure to achieve at least partial response after frontline chemoimmunotherapy or lymphoma progression within 2 years of frontline chemoimmunotherapy. We identified 2 groups: the non-autoHCT cohort (patients from the NLCS with ETF not undergoing autoHCT) and the autoHCT cohort (CIBMTR patients with ETF undergoing autoHCT). All patients received rituximab-based chemotherapy as frontline treatment; 174 non-autoHCT patients and 175 autoHCT patients were identified and analyzed. There was no difference in 5-year OS between the 2 groups (60% versus 67%, respectively; P = .16). A planned subgroup analysis showed that patients with ETF receiving autoHCT soon after treatment failure (≤1 year of ETF; n = 123) had higher 5-year OS than those without autoHCT (73% versus 60%, P = .05). On multivariate analysis, early use of autoHCT was associated with significantly reduced mortality (hazard ratio, .63; 95% confidence interval, .42 to .94; P = .02). Patients with FL experiencing ETF after frontline chemoimmunotherapy lack optimal therapy. We demonstrate improved OS when receiving autoHCT within 1 year of treatment failure. Results from this unique collaboration between the NLCS and CIBMTR support consideration of early consolidation with autoHCT in select FL patients experiencing ETF. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Failure mode and effect analysis on safety critical components of space travel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kouroush Jenab

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Sending men to space has never been an ordinary activity, it requires years of planning and preparation in order to have a chance of success. The payoffs of reliable and repeatable space flight are many, including both Commercial and Military opportunities. In order for reliable and repeatable space flight to become a reality, catastrophic failures need to be detected and mitigated before they occur. It can be shown that small pieces of a design which seem ordinary can create devastating impacts if not designed and tested properly. This paper will address the use of a Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA with modified Risk Priority Number (RPN and its application to safety critical design components of shuttle liftoff. An example will be presented here which specifically focuses on the Solid Rocket Boosters (SRBs to illustrate the FMECA approach to reliable space travel.

Active fault-tolerant control strategy of large civil aircraft under elevator failures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Xingjian

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Aircraft longitudinal control is the most important actuation system and its failures would lead to catastrophic accident of aircraft. This paper proposes an active fault-tolerant control (AFTC strategy for civil aircraft with different numbers of faulty elevators. In order to improve the fault-tolerant flight control system performance and effective utilization of the control surface, trimmable horizontal stabilizer (THS is considered to generate the extra pitch moment. A suitable switching mechanism with performance improvement coefficient is proposed to determine when it is worthwhile to utilize THS. Furthermore, AFTC strategy is detailed by using model following technique and the proposed THS switching mechanism. The basic fault-tolerant controller is designed to guarantee longitudinal control system stability and acceptable performance degradation under partial elevators failure. The proposed AFTC is applied to Boeing 747-200 numerical model and simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed AFTC approach.

Field failure mechanisms for photovoltaic modules

Science.gov (United States)

Dumas, L. N.; Shumka, A.

1981-01-01

Beginning in 1976, Department of Energy field centers have installed and monitored a number of field tests and application experiments using current state-of-the-art photovoltaic modules. On-site observations of module physical and electrical degradation, together with in-depth laboratory analysis of failed modules, permits an overall assessment of the nature and causes of early field failures. Data on failure rates are presented, and key failure mechanisms are analyzed with respect to origin, effect, and prospects for correction. It is concluded that all failure modes identified to date are avoidable or controllable through sound design and production practices.

Aspirin and Statin Nonuse Associated With Early Biochemical Failure After Prostate Radiation Therapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zaorsky, Nicholas G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Buyyounouski, Mark K., E-mail: mark.buyyounouski@fccc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Li, Tianyu [Department of Biostatistics, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Horwitz, Eric M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

2012-09-01

Purpose: To present the largest retrospective series investigating the effect of aspirin and statins, which are hypothesized to have antineoplastic properties, on biochemical failure (nadir plus 2 ng/mL) after prostate radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Between 1989 and 2006, 2051 men with clinically localized prostate cancer received definitive RT alone (median dose, 76 Gy). The rates of aspirin use and statin use (defined as any use at the time of RT or during follow-up) were 36% and 34%, respectively. The primary endpoint of the study was an interval to biochemical failure (IBF) of less than 18 months, which has been shown to be the single strongest predictor of distant metastasis, prostate cancer survival, and overall survival after RT. Patient demographic characteristics and tumor staging factors were assessed with regard to associations with the endpoint. Univariate analysis was performed with the {chi}{sup 2} test for categorical variables and the Wilcoxon test for continuous variables. Multivariable analysis was performed with a multiple logistic regression. Results: The median follow-up was 75 months. Univariate analysis showed that an IBF of less than 18 months was associated with aspirin nonuse (P<.0001), statin nonuse (P<.0001), anticoagulant nonuse (P=.0006), cardiovascular disease (P=.0008), and prostate-specific antigen (continuous) (P=.008) but not with Gleason score, age, RT dose, or T stage. On multivariate analysis, only aspirin nonuse (P=.0012; odds ratio, 2.052 [95% confidence interval, 1.328-3.172]) and statin nonuse (P=.0002; odds ratio, 2.465 [95% confidence interval, 1.529-3.974]) were associated with an IBF of less than 18 months. Conclusions: In patients who received RT for prostate cancer, aspirin or statin nonuse was associated with early biochemical failure, a harbinger of distant metastasis and death. Further study is needed to confirm these findings and to determine the optimal dosing and schedule, as well as the relative

Aspirin and Statin Nonuse Associated With Early Biochemical Failure After Prostate Radiation Therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaorsky, Nicholas G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Li, Tianyu; Horwitz, Eric M.

2012-01-01

Purpose: To present the largest retrospective series investigating the effect of aspirin and statins, which are hypothesized to have antineoplastic properties, on biochemical failure (nadir plus 2 ng/mL) after prostate radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Between 1989 and 2006, 2051 men with clinically localized prostate cancer received definitive RT alone (median dose, 76 Gy). The rates of aspirin use and statin use (defined as any use at the time of RT or during follow-up) were 36% and 34%, respectively. The primary endpoint of the study was an interval to biochemical failure (IBF) of less than 18 months, which has been shown to be the single strongest predictor of distant metastasis, prostate cancer survival, and overall survival after RT. Patient demographic characteristics and tumor staging factors were assessed with regard to associations with the endpoint. Univariate analysis was performed with the χ 2 test for categorical variables and the Wilcoxon test for continuous variables. Multivariable analysis was performed with a multiple logistic regression. Results: The median follow-up was 75 months. Univariate analysis showed that an IBF of less than 18 months was associated with aspirin nonuse (P<.0001), statin nonuse (P<.0001), anticoagulant nonuse (P=.0006), cardiovascular disease (P=.0008), and prostate-specific antigen (continuous) (P=.008) but not with Gleason score, age, RT dose, or T stage. On multivariate analysis, only aspirin nonuse (P=.0012; odds ratio, 2.052 [95% confidence interval, 1.328-3.172]) and statin nonuse (P=.0002; odds ratio, 2.465 [95% confidence interval, 1.529-3.974]) were associated with an IBF of less than 18 months. Conclusions: In patients who received RT for prostate cancer, aspirin or statin nonuse was associated with early biochemical failure, a harbinger of distant metastasis and death. Further study is needed to confirm these findings and to determine the optimal dosing and schedule, as well as the relative

Self-Efficacy for Pain Communication Moderates the Relation Between Ambivalence Over Emotional Expression and Pain Catastrophizing Among Patients With Osteoarthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Denburg, Alyssa N; Shelby, Rebecca A; Caldwell, David S; O'Sullivan, Madeline L; Keefe, Francis J

2018-04-06

Pain catastrophizing (ie, the tendency to focus on and magnify pain sensations and feel helpless in the face of pain) is one of the most important and consistent psychological predictors of the pain experience. The present study examined, in 60 patients with osteoarthritis pain who were married or partnered: 1) the degree to which ambivalence over emotional expression and negative network orientation were associated with pain catastrophizing, and 2) whether self-efficacy for pain communication moderated these relations. Hierarchical multiple linear regression analyses revealed a significant main effect for the association between ambivalence over emotional expression and pain catastrophizing; as ambivalence over emotional expression increased, the degree of pain catastrophizing increased. In addition, the interaction between ambivalence over emotional expression and self-efficacy for pain communication was significant, such that as self-efficacy for pain communication increased, the association between ambivalence over emotional expression and pain catastrophizing became weaker. Negative network orientation was not significantly associated with pain catastrophizing. Findings suggest that higher levels of self-efficacy for pain communication may help weaken the effects of ambivalence over emotional expression on pain catastrophizing. In light of these results, patients may benefit from interventions that target pain communication processes and emotion regulation. This article examines interpersonal processes involved in pain catastrophizing. This study has the potential to lead to better understanding of maladaptive pain coping strategies and possibly better prevention and treatment strategies. Copyright © 2018 The American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The application of catastrophe theory to medical image analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

2001-01-01

In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and

Landslide Catastrophes and Disaster Risk Reduction: A GIS Framework for Landslide Prevention and Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Wang

2010-09-01

Full Text Available As catastrophic phenomena, landslides often cause large-scale socio-economic destruction including loss of life, economic collapse, and human injury. In addition, landslides can impair the functioning of critical infrastructure and destroy cultural heritage and ecological systems. In order to build a more landslide resistant and resilient society, an original GIS-based decision support system is put forth in order to help emergency managers better prepare for and respond to landslide disasters. The GIS-based landslide monitoring and management system includes a Central Repository System (CRS, Disaster Data Processing Modules (DDPM, a Command and Control System (CCS and a Portal Management System (PMS. This architecture provides valuable insights into landslide early warning, landslide risk and vulnerability analyses, and critical infrastructure damage assessments. Finally, internet-based communications are used to support landslide disaster modelling, monitoring and management.

Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruhrmann, G.; Kohring, M.

1997-01-01

Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.) [de

Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relationship between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Natoshia Raishevich; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

2014-01-01

Objectives Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors in response to their child’s pain (overprotection, minimizing and/or encouragement) interact with child coping characteristics (e.g., catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relationship between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children’s level of maladaptive coping (i.e., pain catastrophizing). Methods Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: protection, minimizing, and encouragement/monitoring subscales). Results Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relationship between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relationship between parent protectiveness and disability. Conclusions The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined in part by the child’s coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP. PMID:25121521

DEBUNKING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LAW AND CAPITALISM: HOW CORPORATE GOVERNANCE FAILURES CONTRIBUTE TO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN INDONESIA?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Yahdi Salampessy

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The recent global financial catastrophe has raised questions about the relationship between corporate governance and the crisis. Many scholars attribute the crisis to the corporate failure and the Anglo-Saxon model of capitalism. Much of the literatures, however, tend to focus on examining the issue of financial crisis in the developed economy. Following up this line of literatures, this paper will extend the discussion of the role of corporate governance in financial crisis in the developing world. Using Indonesia as a case study, this paper will look at evidence that has emerged from the recent financial crisis regarding the failures of corporate governance in addressing and preventing the crisis.

Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarin, Shiv Kumar; Choudhury, Ashok

2016-12-01

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinct entity that differs from acute liver failure and decompensated cirrhosis in timing, presence of treatable acute precipitant, and course of disease, with a potential for self-recovery. The core concept is acute deterioration of existing liver function in a patient of chronic liver disease with or without cirrhosis in response to an acute insult. The insult should be a hepatic one and presentation in the form of liver failure (jaundice, encephalopathy, coagulopathy, ascites) with or without extrahepatic organ failure in a defined time frame. ACLF is characterized by a state of deregulated inflammation. Initial cytokine burst presenting as SIRS, progression to CARS and associated immunoparalysis leads to sepsis and multi-organ failure. Early identification of the acute insult and mitigation of the same, use of nucleoside analogue in HBV-ACLF, steroid in severe alcoholic hepatitis, steroid in severe autoimmune hepatitis and/or bridging therapy lead to recovery, with a 90-day transplant-free survival rate of up to 50 %. First-week presentation is crucial concerning SIRS/sepsis, development, multiorgan failure and consideration of transplant. A protocol-based multi-disciplinary approach including critical care hepatology, early liver transplant before multi-organ involvement, or priority for organ allocation may improve the outcome. Presentation with extrahepatic organ involvement or inclusion of sepsis as an acute insult in definition restricts the therapy, i.e., liver transplant or bridging therapy, and needs serious consideration. Augmentation of regeneration, cell-based therapy, immunotherapy, and gut microbiota modulation are the emerging areas and need further research.

Efficient prevention and compensation of catastrophic risks. The example of damage by nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanden Borre, T.

2001-01-01

This book deals with the liability for damage due to catastrophic risks. The nuclear liability law serves as an example of such a catastrophic risk. The question that we tried to answer is what an efficient compensation scheme for catastrophic risks should look like. This question is dealt with both from a law and an economic point of view and from a comparative point of view. The main element in comparing the laws in different countries is the comparison between Belgian and Dutch civil (nuclear) liability law. But also American nuclear liability law is part of the analysis (the Price-Anderson Act). The book consists of four parts: (nuclear) civil liability law, legal and economic approach, analysis of other compensation systems and conclusions. The big themes in this book are therefore civil (nuclear) liability law, insurance law and environmental liability law [nl

Failure to thrive in infants with complicated facial hemangiomas.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Meghan W; Burkhart, Craig N; Vaghani, Sapna P; Morrell, Dean S; Wagner, Annette M

2012-01-01

We have observed that some children with facial hemangiomas of infancy have feeding difficulties coincident with periods of failure to thrive. We evaluated the early oral sensory and feeding experiences of four children with facial hemangiomas through medical record review and parental surveys to investigate their contribution to the patients' failure to thrive. All children with feeding irregularities experienced some degree of oral sensory impairment and required early oral sensory intervention, but there were varying reports of difficulty or delay in the development of oral feeding. The nature of these difficulties is discussed. Infants with complicated facial hemangiomas with perioral and airway involvement may be at higher risk for feeding and oral sensory problems. We recommend close monitoring for failure to thrive and early evaluation by speech or occupational therapists. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Unexpected ICD pulse generator failure due to electronic circuit damage caused by electrical overstress.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauser, R G; Hayes, D L; Almquist, A K; Epstein, A E; Parsonnet, V; Tyers, G F; Vlay, S C; Schoenfeld, M H

2001-07-01

Because it is a lifesaving device, the unexpected failure of an ICD can be catastrophic. We report ICD electronic circuit failure due to electrical overstress damage (EOS) to the high voltage hybird circuit and other electronic components in a series of ICD pulse generator models. Data were obtained from the Multicenter Registry of Pacemaker and ICD Pacemaker and Lead Failures, and from the manufactures' adverse event reports, that were in the FDA's Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience (MAUDE) database. Of 16 nonbattery Guidant/CPI ICD pulse generator failures reported to the registry, 6 (38%) have been confirmed by the manufacturer to be EOS related, and Guidant/CPI has reported 273 such failures to the FDA as of 12/29/00. The signs of failure included loss of telemetry and inability to deliver therapy, and some patients have experienced serious adverse events. Hybrid circuit damage may have occurred during capacitor charging or reform, and the majority appears to have happened during normal ICD function. While the incidence of this problem is unknown, a management strategy should be adopted that includes routine follow-up every 3 months and device evaluation after a shock or exposure to external defibrillation or electrosurgical devices. This study suggests that additional data are needed to determine the incidence of this problem, and that our present methods for monitoring the performance of ICD's following market release are inadequate.

La catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl entre erreurs humaines et défauts techniques

CERN Document Server

Perrineau, Aude

2015-01-01

Découvrez enfin tout ce qu'il faut savoir sur la catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl en moins d'une heure ! Le 26 avril 1986 à 1 h 23, une catastrophe d'un nouveau genre ébranle le monde : un réacteur de la centrale nucléaire de Tchernobyl explose. Alors que les autorités soviétiques camouflent l'accident, puis en minimisent l'importance, un nuage radioactif se forme et se propage sur toute l'Europe…Ce livre vous permettra d'en savoir plus sur : Le contexte de l'époque Les acteurs majeurs qui ont participé à l'événement La catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl Les répercussions du drameLe mot

Expectancies Mediate the Relations Among Pain Catastrophizing, Fear of Movement, and Return to Work Outcomes After Whiplash Injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Carriere, Junie S; Thibault, Pascal; Milioto, Maria; Sullivan, Michael J L

2015-12-01

Pain catastrophizing and fear of movement have been identified as key predictors of prolonged work disability after whiplash injury. However, little is known about the processes by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return to work. This study investigated the mediating role of expectancies on the relations between pain catastrophizing and return to work, and between fear of movement and return to work after whiplash injury. The study sample consisted of 154 individuals with whiplash injury who were enrolled in a multidisciplinary pain rehabilitation program. Participants completed measures of pain catastrophizing, fear of movement, and return-to-work expectancies after admission to a rehabilitation program. A follow-up telephone interview was used to assess work status 1 year after discharge. Consistent with previous research, analyses revealed that expectancies, pain catastrophizing, and fear of movement were significant predictors of return to work at 1-year follow-up. Regression analyses (bootstrapping) revealed that expectancies partially mediated the relation between catastrophizing and return to work. Expectancies completely mediated the relation between fear of movement and return to work. The significant predictive and mediating role of expectancies on return to work argues for the inclusion of expectancies as a specific target of intervention for individuals with whiplash injury. The findings suggest that expectancies might be part of the pathways by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return-to-work outcomes after whiplash injury. The findings argue for greater attention to return-to-work expectancies as a risk factor for problematic recovery outcomes as well as a target of intervention. Copyright © 2015 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medina Velasquez, Yimy; Felix Restrepo Suarez, Jose; Iglesias Gamarra, Antonio

2001-01-01

The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

Severe abdominal pain as a presenting symptom of probable catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Haskin, Orly; Amir, Jacob; Schwarz, Michael; Schonfeld, Tommy; Nahum, Elhanan; Ling, Galina; Prais, Dario; Harel, Liora

2012-07-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric medicine is rare. We report 3 adolescents who presented with acute onset of severe abdominal pain as the first manifestation of probable catastrophic APS. The 3 patients, 2 male patients and 1 female patient were 14 to 18 years old. One had been diagnosed with systemic lupus erythematosus in the past, but the other 2 had no previous relevant medical history. All presented with excruciating abdominal pain without additional symptoms. Physical examination was noncontributory. Laboratory results were remarkable for high inflammatory markers. Abdominal ultrasonography was normal, and abdominal computed tomography scan showed nonspecific findings of liver infiltration. Only computed tomography angiography revealed evidence of extensive multiorgan thrombosis. All patients had elevated titers of antiphospholipid antibodies. The patients were treated with full heparinization, high-dose steroids, and intravenous immunoglobulin with a resolution of symptoms. One patient was resistant to the treatment and was treated with rituximab. In conclusion, severe acute abdominal pain can be the first manifestation of a thromboembolic event owing to catastrophic APS even in previously healthy adolescents. Diagnosis requires a high index of suspicion with prompt evaluation and treatment to prevent severe morbidity and mortality.

GDP-to-GTP exchange on the microtubule end can contribute to the frequency of catastrophe.

Science.gov (United States)

Piedra, Felipe-Andrés; Kim, Tae; Garza, Emily S; Geyer, Elisabeth A; Burns, Alexander; Ye, Xuecheng; Rice, Luke M

2016-11-07

Microtubules are dynamic polymers of αβ-tubulin that have essential roles in chromosome segregation and organization of the cytoplasm. Catastrophe-the switch from growing to shrinking-occurs when a microtubule loses its stabilizing GTP cap. Recent evidence indicates that the nucleotide on the microtubule end controls how tightly an incoming subunit will be bound (trans-acting GTP), but most current models do not incorporate this information. We implemented trans-acting GTP into a computational model for microtubule dynamics. In simulations, growing microtubules often exposed terminal GDP-bound subunits without undergoing catastrophe. Transient GDP exposure on the growing plus end slowed elongation by reducing the number of favorable binding sites on the microtubule end. Slower elongation led to erosion of the GTP cap and an increase in the frequency of catastrophe. Allowing GDP-to-GTP exchange on terminal subunits in simulations mitigated these effects. Using mutant αβ-tubulin or modified GTP, we showed experimentally that a more readily exchangeable nucleotide led to less frequent catastrophe. Current models for microtubule dynamics do not account for GDP-to-GTP exchange on the growing microtubule end, so our findings provide a new way of thinking about the molecular events that initiate catastrophe. © 2016 Piedra et al. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). Two months after publication it is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

Modeling the Effect of Privatization on Behavior of Hurst Exponent Using Stochastic Catastrophe Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

In this paper using the global Hurst exponent, the impact of privatization of public companies in Iran on the degree of efficiency in Tehran Stock Exchange is assessed. The results show that selling public companies' share in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) leads to a structural break in degree of market development. To model this phenomenon a catastrophe approach is used and it is demonstrated that this structural break can be better explained by a cusp catastrophe model.

Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

2014-04-01

The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

Polar catastrophe at the MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface

KAUST Repository

Albar, Arwa

2016-11-14

First principles calculations, based on density functional theory, are used to investigate the structural and electronic properties of the epitaxial MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface of wide band gap insulators. Depending on the interface termination, nonmagnetic metallic and half-metallic interface states are observed. The formation of these states is explained by a polar catastrophe model for nonpolar-polar interfaces. Strong lattice distortions and buckling develop in SnO2, which influence the interface properties as the charge discontinuity is partially screened. Already a single unit cell of SnO2 is sufficient to drive the polar catastrophe scenario. © 2016 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Neuroleptic malignant-like syndrome with a slight elevation of creatine-kinase levels and respiratory failure in a patient with Parkinson's disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei L

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Li Wei,1,2 Yinghui Chen1,2 1Department of Neurology, Jinshan Hospital, 2Department of Neurology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China Abstract: Neuroleptic malignant-like syndrome (NMLS is a rare but catastrophic complication of drug treatment for Parkinson's disease (PD. Sudden withdrawal and abrupt reduction of antiparkinsonian drugs are major risk factors. Just as its name suggests, the clinical features of NMLS are similar to neuroleptic malignant syndrome, which is a dangerous adverse response to antipsychotic drugs. Both of these conditions can present with hyperthermia, marked muscle rigidity, altered consciousness, autonomic dysfunction, and elevated serum creatine-kinase (CK levels. However, we describe a special NMLS case with a slight elevation of CK levels and respiratory failure in the full course of her treatment. The patient, a 68-year-old woman with a 4-years history of Parkinson's disease, presented with hyperthermia and severe muscular rigidity. During the course of her treatment, her maximum temperature was extremely high (above 41°C. At the beginning, the diagnosis of NMLS secondary to dopamine decrease was difficult to make, because her initial blood examination revealed that her serum CK levels were mildly elevated and decreased to normal range rapidly. Although antiparkinsonian drugs and supportive treatment were applied, the patient developed an acute respiratory failure in the early course of treatment. This case report highlights that when confronted with Parkinson's patients with high body temperature and muscle rigidity, NMLS should be taken into consideration even if there is no CK elevation. Likewise, the need for supportive care is essential, because its complications are severe, even such as respiratory failure. Keywords: antiparkinsonian drugs, creatine kinase, parkinsonism–hyperpyrexia syndrome, respiratory failure

Application of catastrophe theory to a point model for bumpy torus with neoclassical non-resonant electrons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Punjabi, A; Vahala, G [College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA (USA). Dept. of Physics

1983-12-01

The point model for the toroidal core plasma in the ELMO Bumpy Torus (with neoclassical non-resonant electrons) is examined in the light of catastrophe theory. Even though the point model equations do not constitute a gradient dynamic system, the equilibrium surfaces are similar to those of the canonical cusp catastrophe. The point model is then extended to incorporate ion cyclotron resonance heating. A detailed parametric study of the equilibria is presented. Further, the nonlinear time evolution of these equilibria is studied, and it is observed that the point model obeys the delay convention (and hence hysteresis) and shows catastrophes at the fold edges of the equilibrium surfaces. Tentative applications are made to experimental results.

Leaking Containers: Success and Failure in Controlling the Mosquito Aedes aegypti in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Löwy, Ilana

2017-04-01

In 1958, the Pan American Health Organization declared that Brazil had successfully eradicated the mosquito Aedes aegypti, responsible for the transmission of yellow fever, dengue fever, chikungunya, and Zika virus. Yet in 2016 the Brazilian minister of health described the situation of dengue fever as "catastrophic." Discussing the recent epidemic of Zika virus, which amplified the crisis produced by the persistence of dengue fever, Brazil's president declared in January 2016 that "we are in the process of losing the war against the mosquito Aedes aegypti." I discuss the reasons for the failure to contain Aedes in Brazil and the consequences of this failure. A longue durée perspective favors a view of the Zika epidemic that does not present it as a health crisis to be contained with a technical solution alone but as a pathology that has the persistence of deeply entrenched structural problems and vulnerabilities.

Astrophysics: Is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

Science.gov (United States)

Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

2005-12-01

The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

Science.gov (United States)

Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

2005-12-08

The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

Screening and treatment for heritable thrombophilia in pregnancy failure: inconsistencies among UK early pregnancy units.

Science.gov (United States)

Norrie, Gillian; Farquharson, Roy G; Greaves, Mike

2009-01-01

The significance of heritable thrombophilia in pregnancy failure is controversial. We surveyed all UK Early Pregnancy Units and 70% responded. The majority test routinely for heritable thrombophilias; 80%, 76% and 88% undertook at least one screening test in late miscarriage, recurrent miscarriage and placental abruption, respectively. The range of thrombophilias sought is inconsistent: testing for proteins C and S deficiency and F5 R506Q (factor V Leiden) is most prevalent. Detection of heritable thrombophilia frequently leads to administration of antithrombotics in subsequent pregnancies. Thus, thrombophilia testing and use of antithrombotics are widespread in the UK despite controversies regarding the role of heritable thrombophilia in the pathogenesis of pregnancy complications, and the lack of robust evidence for the efficacy of antithrombotic therapy.

Helium release rates and ODH calculations from RHIC magnet cooling line failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liaw, C.J.; Than, Y.; Tuozzolo, J.

2011-03-28

A catastrophic failure of the magnet cooling lines, similar to the LHC superconducting bus failure incident, could discharge cold helium into the RHIC tunnel and cause an Oxygen Deficiency Hazard (ODH) problem. A SINDA/FLUINT{reg_sign} model, which simulated the 4.5K/4 atm helium flowing through the magnet cooling system distribution lines, then through a line break into the insulating vacuum volumes and discharging via the reliefs into the RHIC tunnel, had been developed. Arc flash energy deposition and heat load from the ambient temperature cryostat surfaces are included in the simulations. Three typical areas: the sextant arc, the Triplet/DX/D0 magnets, and the injection area, had been analyzed. Results, including helium discharge rates, helium inventory loss, and the resulting oxygen concentration in the RHIC tunnel area, are reported. Good agreement had been achieved when comparing the simulation results, a RHIC sector depressurization test measurement, and some simple analytical calculations.

Some elementary mechanics of explosive and brittle failure modes in prestressed containments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murray, D.W.

1978-06-01

Fundamental concepts related to pneumatic pressurization and explosive behaviour of containment structures are reviewed. It is shown that explosive behaviour occurs whenever a pressure equal to the ultimate capacity of the structure is attained. The energy associated with hydraulic pressurization is bounded and shown to be orders of magnitude less than that associated with pneumatic pressurization. It is also shown that structural behaviour prior to attaining the ultimate load capacity is independent of the pressurized medium. The phenomenon of brittle fracture, as it relates to prestressed concrete containments, is explored. A theoretical technique of proportioning cross sections is developed to eliminate the possibility of catastrophic brittle tensile fractures. The possibility of brittle fractures being triggered by failure of some type of 'detail' is also examined. An attempt is made to identify the types of failures for which the state of the art may be inadequate to assess behaviour under overpressure conditions. (author)

Timber Price Dynamics Following a Natural Catastrophe

OpenAIRE

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2000-01-01

Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20% of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the short- and long-run effects of the hurricane on the prices of timber stocks, we estimated an intervention model of the residuals of cointegration of South Carolina sawtimber and pulpwood ...

Early Adoption of Sacubitril/Valsartan for Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: Insights From Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF).

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Nancy; Fonarow, Gregg C; Lippmann, Steven J; Mi, Xiaojuan; Heidenreich, Paul A; Yancy, Clyde W; Greiner, Melissa A; Hammill, Bradley G; Hardy, N Chantelle; Turner, Stuart J; Laskey, Warren K; Curtis, Lesley H; Hernandez, Adrian F; Mentz, Robert J; O'Brien, Emily C

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and variation in angiotensin receptor/neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) prescription among a real-world population with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved sacubitril/valsartan for patients with HFrEF in July 2015. Little is known about the early patterns of use of this novel therapy. The study included patients discharged alive from hospitals in Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF), a registry of hospitalized patients with heart failure, between July 2015 and June 2016 who had documentation of whether ARNIs were prescribed at discharge. Patient and hospital characteristics were compared among patients with HFrEF (ejection fraction ≤40%) with and without ARNI prescription at discharge, excluding those with documented contraindications to ARNIs. To evaluate hospital variation, hospitals with at least 10 eligible hospitalizations during the study period were assessed. Of 21,078 patients hospitalized with HFrEF during the study period, 495 (2.3%) were prescribed ARNIs at discharge. Patients prescribed ARNIs were younger (median age 65 years vs. 70 years; p < 0.001), had lower ejection fractions (median 23% vs. 25%; p < 0.001), and had higher use of aldosterone antagonists (45% vs. 31%; p < 0.001) at discharge. At the 241 participating hospitals with 10 or more eligible admissions, 125 (52%) reported no discharge prescriptions of ARNIs. Approximately 2.3% of patients hospitalized for HFrEF in a national registry were prescribed ARNI therapy in the first 12 months following Food and Drug Administration approval. Further study is needed to identify and overcome barriers to implementing new evidence into practice, such as ARNI use among eligible patients with HFrEF. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Catastrophic Disruption Threshold and Maximum Deflection from Kinetic Impact

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, A. F.

2017-12-01

The use of a kinetic impactor to deflect an asteroid on a collision course with Earth was described in the NASA Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Analysis of Alternatives (2007) as the most mature approach for asteroid deflection and mitigation. The NASA DART mission will demonstrate asteroid deflection by kinetic impact at the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 65803 Didymos in October, 2022. The kinetic impactor approach is considered to be applicable with warning times of 10 years or more and with hazardous asteroid diameters of 400 m or less. In principle, a larger kinetic impactor bringing greater kinetic energy could cause a larger deflection, but input of excessive kinetic energy will cause catastrophic disruption of the target, leaving possibly large fragments still on collision course with Earth. Thus the catastrophic disruption threshold limits the maximum deflection from a kinetic impactor. An often-cited rule of thumb states that the maximum deflection is 0.1 times the escape velocity before the target will be disrupted. It turns out this rule of thumb does not work well. A comparison to numerical simulation results shows that a similar rule applies in the gravity limit, for large targets more than 300 m, where the maximum deflection is roughly the escape velocity at momentum enhancement factor β=2. In the gravity limit, the rule of thumb corresponds to pure momentum coupling (μ=1/3), but simulations find a slightly different scaling μ=0.43. In the smaller target size range that kinetic impactors would apply to, the catastrophic disruption limit is strength-controlled. A DART-like impactor won't disrupt any target asteroid down to significantly smaller size than the 50 m below which a hazardous object would not penetrate the atmosphere in any case unless it is unusually strong.

Maternal and neonatal outcomes of respiratory failure during pregnancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, Chen-Yiu; Hu, Han-Chung; Chiu, Li-Chung; Chang, Chih-Hao; Li, Li-Fu; Huang, Chung-Chi; Kao, Chuan-Chi; Cheng, Po-Jen; Kao, Kuo-Chin

2018-05-01

Obstetric patients comprise a limited portion of intensive care unit patients, but they often present with unfamiliar conditions and exhibit the potential for catastrophic deterioration. This study evaluated the maternal and neonatal outcomes of respiratory failure during pregnancy. Information on 71 patients at >25 weeks gestation in the ICU with respiratory failure was recorded between 2009 and 2013. The characteristics and outcomes of mothers and fetuses were determined through a retrospective chart review and evaluated using Student's t test, chi-square test, and Fisher's exact test. The leading causes of respiratory failure were postpartum hemorrhage and severe preeclampsia in the obstetric causes group and pneumonia in the nonobstetric causes group during pregnancy and the peripartum period. The non-obstetric causes group exhibited a higher incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome and renal replacement therapy as well as requiring more ventilator days. The patients in the obstetric causes group showed significant improvement after delivery in the partial pressure of arterial oxygen to the fraction of inspired oxygen and peak inspiratory pressure decrease. Both groups exhibited high incidences of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome. Neonatal complications resulting from meconium aspiration syndrome (MAS) and sepsis were more common in the non-obstetric causes group; however, neurological development impairment was more common in the obstetric causes group. Obstetric cause was associated with longer ventilator free days and fewer episodes of ARDS after delivery. Neonatal complications resulting from different etiologies of respiratory failure were found to differ. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluation of Left Ventricular Diastolic Dysfunction with Early Systolic Dysfunction Using Two-Dimensional Speckle Tracking Echocardiography in Canine Heart Failure Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Wei-Chun; Ma, Hong; Xie, Rong-Ai; Gao, Li-Jian; Tang, Yue; Wang, Hao

2016-04-01

This study evaluated the role of two-dimensional speckle tracking echocardiography (2DSTE) for predicting left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction in pacing-induced canine heart failure. Pacing systems were implanted in 8 adult mongrel dogs, and continuous rapid right ventricular pacing (RVP, 240 beats/min) was maintained for 2 weeks. The obtained measurements from 2DSTE included global strain rate during early diastole (SRe) and during late diastole (SRa) in the longitudinal (L-SRe, L-SRa), circumferential (C-SRe, C-SRa), and radial directions (R-SRe, R-SRa). Changes in heart morphology were observed by light microscopy and transmission electron microscopy at 2 weeks. The onset of LV diastolic dysfunction with early systolic dysfunction occurred 3 days after RVP initiation. Most of the strain rate imaging indices were altered at 1 or 3 days after RVP onset and continued to worsen until heart failure developed. Light and transmission electron microscopy showed myocardial vacuolar degeneration and mitochondrial swelling in the left ventricular at 2 weeks after RVP onset. Pearson's correlation analysis revealed that parameters of conventional echocardiography and 2DSTE showed moderate correlation with LV pressure parameters, including E/Esep' (r = 0.58, P echocardiography and strain rate imaging could effectively predict LV diastolic dysfunction (area under the curve: E/Esep' 0.78; L-SRe 0.84; E/L-SRe 0.80; R-SRe 0.80). 2DSTE was a sensitive and accurate technique that could be used for predicting LV diastolic dysfunction in canine heart failure model. © 2015, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Analysis of cause-specific failure endpoints using simple proportions: an example from a randomized controlled clinical trial in early breast cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panzarella, Tony; Meakin, J. William

1998-01-01

Purpose: To describe a statistically valid method for analyzing cause-specific failure data based on simple proportions, that is easy to understand and apply, and outline under what conditions its implementation is well-suited. Methods and Materials: In the comparison of treatment groups, time to first failure (in any site) was analyzed first, followed by an analysis of the pattern of first failure, preferably at the latest complete follow-up time common to each group. Results: A retrospective analysis of time to contralateral breast cancer in 777 early breast cancer patients was undertaken. Patients previously treated by mastectomy plus radiation therapy to the chest wall and regional nodal areas were randomized to receive further radiation and prednisone (R+P), radiation alone (R), or no further treatment (NT). Those randomized to R+P had a statistically significantly delayed time to first failure compared to the group randomized to NT (p = 0.0008). Patients randomized to R also experienced a delayed time to first failure compared to NT, but the difference was not statistically significant (p 0.14). At 14 years from the date of surgery (the latest common complete follow-up time) the distribution of first failures was statistically significantly different between R+P and NT (p = 0.005), but not between R and NT (p = 0.09). The contralateral breast cancer first failure rate at 14 years from surgery was 7.2% for NT, 4.6% for R, and 3.7% for R+P. The corresponding Kaplan-Meier estimates were 13.2%, 8.2%, and 5.4%, respectively. Conclusion: Analyzing cause-specific failure data using methods developed for survival endpoints is problematic. We encourage the use of the two-step analysis strategy described when, as in the example presented, competing causes of failure are not likely to be statistically independent, and when a treatment comparison at a single time-point is clinically relevant and feasible; that is, all patients have complete follow-up to this point

The added value of mifepristone to non-surgical treatment regimens for uterine evacuation in case of early pregnancy failure: a systematic review of the literature

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berg, J. van den; Gordon, B.B.; Snijders, M.P.M.L.; Vandenbussche, F.P.H.A.; Coppus, S.F.P.J.

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVE(S): Early pregnancy failure (EPF) is a common complication of pregnancy. Surgical intervention carries a risk of complications and, therefore, medical treatment appears to be a safe alternative. Unfortunately, the current medical treatment with misoprostol alone has complete evacuation

Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Yamashita, Masamichi

During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and

Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya

Science.gov (United States)

Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

2016-01-01

Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal’s second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.

Some Aspects of the Failure Mechanisms in BaTiO3-Based Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, David Donhang; Sampson, Michael J.

2012-01-01

The objective of this presentation is to gain insight into possible failure mechanisms in BaTiO3-based ceramic capacitors that may be associated with the reliability degradation that accompanies a reduction in dielectric thickness, as reported by Intel Corporation in 2010. The volumetric efficiency (microF/cm3) of a multilayer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) has been shown to not increase limitlessly due to the grain size effect on the dielectric constant of ferroelectric ceramic BaTiO3 material. The reliability of an MLCC has been discussed with respect to its structure. The MLCCs with higher numbers of dielectric layers will pose more challenges for the reliability of dielectric material, which is the case for most base-metal-electrode (BME) capacitors. A number of MLCCs manufactured using both precious-metal-electrode (PME) and BME technology, with 25 V rating and various chip sizes and capacitances, were tested at accelerated stress levels. Most of these MLCCs had a failure behavior with two mixed failure modes: the well-known rapid dielectric wearout, and so-called 'early failures." The two failure modes can be distinguished when the testing data were presented and normalized at use-level using a 2-parameter Weibull plot. The early failures had a slope parameter of Beta >1, indicating that the early failures are not infant mortalities. Early failures are triggered due to external electrical overstress and become dominant as dielectric layer thickness decreases, accompanied by a dramatic reduction in reliability. This indicates that early failures are the main cause of the reliability degradation in MLCCs as dielectric layer thickness decreases. All of the early failures are characterized by an avalanche-like breakdown leakage current. The failures have been attributed to the extrinsic minor construction defects introduced during fabrication of the capacitors. A reliability model including dielectric thickness and extrinsic defect feature size is proposed in this

Transvaginal color Doppler imaging of uterine contractions in early pregnancies: Significance of uterine contractions in early pregnancy failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Eun Ju; Han, Chang Jin; Suh, Jung Ho; Kwon, Hyuck Chan [Aju University SChool of Medicine, Suwon (Korea, Republic of)

1999-06-15

To assess uterine contractions in early pregnancies using transvaginal color Doppler sonography (TVCDS) and to determine the role of uterine contractions in the diagnosis of early pregnancy failure. 76 patients with abnormal pregnancy diagnosed by sonography or histopathology up to 10 weeks of gestation and 38 normal pregnant women as the control group were examines with TVCDS. The presence of uterine contractions was determined by complete or partial disappearance of the color flow signals of vessels within myometrium, and the direction, amplitude (grade 1-3), and interval of uterine contractions were also evaluated. Uterine contractions were identified in 42 (55.3%) of 76 patients with abnormal pregnancy, whereas they were detected only in 2 (5.3%) of 38 normal pregnant women who had initial grade 1 contraction but disappeared in the follow-up study. In 26 patients with blighted ovum or missed abortion, 15 patients (57.7%),showed uterine contraction of grade 1 in 3 cases, grade 2 in 8 cases, and grade 3 in 4 cases and interval from 45 seconds to 5 minutes. In 30 patients with inevitable or incomplete abortion, 23 patients (76.6%) showed uterine contraction of grade 1 in 2 cases, grade 2 in 9 cases, and grade 3 in 12 cases and interval from 1 to 5 minutes. 4 (20%) of 20 patients with threatened abortion had uterine contraction of grade 2 and interval from 2 to 4 minutes. The presence of uterine contractions was significantly different in abnormal pregnancies compared with that of normal and also among the tree different groups of abnormal pregnancies, but the amplitude did not differ.

Transvaginal color Doppler imaging of uterine contractions in early pregnancies: Significance of uterine contractions in early pregnancy failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Eun Ju; Han, Chang Jin; Suh, Jung Ho; Kwon, Hyuck Chan

1999-01-01

To assess uterine contractions in early pregnancies using transvaginal color Doppler sonography (TVCDS) and to determine the role of uterine contractions in the diagnosis of early pregnancy failure. 76 patients with abnormal pregnancy diagnosed by sonography or histopathology up to 10 weeks of gestation and 38 normal pregnant women as the control group were examines with TVCDS. The presence of uterine contractions was determined by complete or partial disappearance of the color flow signals of vessels within myometrium, and the direction, amplitude (grade 1-3), and interval of uterine contractions were also evaluated. Uterine contractions were identified in 42 (55.3%) of 76 patients with abnormal pregnancy, whereas they were detected only in 2 (5.3%) of 38 normal pregnant women who had initial grade 1 contraction but disappeared in the follow-up study. In 26 patients with blighted ovum or missed abortion, 15 patients (57.7%),showed uterine contraction of grade 1 in 3 cases, grade 2 in 8 cases, and grade 3 in 4 cases and interval from 45 seconds to 5 minutes. In 30 patients with inevitable or incomplete abortion, 23 patients (76.6%) showed uterine contraction of grade 1 in 2 cases, grade 2 in 9 cases, and grade 3 in 12 cases and interval from 1 to 5 minutes. 4 (20%) of 20 patients with threatened abortion had uterine contraction of grade 2 and interval from 2 to 4 minutes. The presence of uterine contractions was significantly different in abnormal pregnancies compared with that of normal and also among the tree different groups of abnormal pregnancies, but the amplitude did not differ.

Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.E. García-Ramos

2014-09-01

Full Text Available We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2. Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

Reliability evaluation of hard disk drive failures based on counting processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ye, Zhi-Sheng; Xie, Min; Tang, Loon-Ching

2013-01-01

Reliability assessment for hard disk drives (HDDs) is important yet difficult for manufacturers. Motivated by the fact that the particle accumulation in the HDDs, which accounts for most HDD catastrophic failures, is contributed from the internal and external sources, a counting process with two arrival sources is proposed to model the particle cumulative process in HDDs. This model successfully explains the collapse of traditional ALT approaches for accelerated life test data. Parameter estimation and hypothesis tests for the model are developed and illustrated with real data from a HDD test. A simulation study is conducted to examine the accuracy of large sample normal approximations that are used to test existence of the internal and external sources.

Health management system for rocket engines

Science.gov (United States)

Nemeth, Edward

1990-01-01

The functional framework of a failure detection algorithm for the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) is developed. The basic algorithm is based only on existing SSME measurements. Supplemental measurements, expected to enhance failure detection effectiveness, are identified. To support the algorithm development, a figure of merit is defined to estimate the likelihood of SSME criticality 1 failure modes and the failure modes are ranked in order of likelihood of occurrence. Nine classes of failure detection strategies are evaluated and promising features are extracted as the basis for the failure detection algorithm. The failure detection algorithm provides early warning capabilities for a wide variety of SSME failure modes. Preliminary algorithm evaluation, using data from three SSME failures representing three different failure types, demonstrated indications of imminent catastrophic failure well in advance of redline cutoff in all three cases.

Early detection of materials degradation

Science.gov (United States)

Meyendorf, Norbert

2017-02-01

Lightweight components for transportation and aerospace applications are designed for an estimated lifecycle, taking expected mechanical and environmental loads into account. The main reason for catastrophic failure of components within the expected lifecycle are material inhomogeneities, like pores and inclusions as origin for fatigue cracks, that have not been detected by NDE. However, material degradation by designed or unexpected loading conditions or environmental impacts can accelerate the crack initiation or growth. Conventional NDE methods are usually able to detect cracks that are formed at the end of the degradation process, but methods for early detection of fatigue, creep, and corrosion are still a matter of research. For conventional materials ultrasonic, electromagnetic, or thermographic methods have been demonstrated as promising. Other approaches are focused to surface damage by using optical methods or characterization of the residual surface stresses that can significantly affect the creation of fatigue cracks. For conventional metallic materials, material models for nucleation and propagation of damage have been successfully applied for several years. Material microstructure/property relations are well established and the effect of loading conditions on the component life can be simulated. For advanced materials, for example carbon matrix composites or ceramic matrix composites, the processes of nucleation and propagation of damage is still not fully understood. For these materials NDE methods can not only be used for the periodic inspections, but can significantly contribute to the material scientific knowledge to understand and model the behavior of composite materials.

Gravothermal catastrophe and negative specific heat of self-gravitating systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hachisu, I; Sugimoto, D [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of General Education

1978-07-01

Thermodynamics of self-gravitating gas system, which is enclosed by an adiabatic spherical wall, is discussed. When the temperature distribution is isothermal, the system is in thermodynamic equilibrium in the sense that the first order variation of the total entropy of the system vanishes. However, the second order variation of the total entropy may be positive, when the effect of gravity exceeds a certain limit. Then, the system may evolve to make its entropy increase. This is the gravothermal catastrophe, which was pointed out first by Antonov in 1962, but for which some questions were raised concerning its reality. In the present paper, this catastrophe is analysed by extending functional space of variation to include non-isothermal perturbations. It results in two merits: It is most convenient to make a close relation with usual concepts in the thermodynamics of irreversible process, and the present formulation does not contain any singular quantities which brought a confusion in the interpretation of the real physical processes.

Gravothermal catastrophe and negative specific heat of self-gravitating systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro

1978-01-01

Thermodynamics of self-gravitating gas system, which is enclosed by an adiabatic spherical wall, is discussed. When the temperature distribution is isothermal, the system is in thermodynamic equilibrium in the sense that the first order variation of the total entropy of the system vanishes. However, the second order variation of the total entropy may be positive, when the effect of gravity exceeds a certain limit. Then, the system may evolve to make its entropy increase. This is the gravothermal catastrophe, which was pointed out first by Antonov in 1962, but for which some questions were raised concerning its reality. In the present paper, this catastrophe is analysed by extending functional space of variation to include non-isothermal perturbations. It results in two merits: It is most convenient to make a close relation with usual concepts in the thermodynamics of irreversible process, and the present formulation does not contain any singular quantities which brought a confusion in the interpretation of the real physical processes. (author)

Child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain is associated with procedural fear in children: a study in children with diabetes and their mothers.

Science.gov (United States)

Vervoort, T; Goubert, L; Vandenbossche, H; Van Aken, S; Matthys, D; Crombez, G

2011-12-01

The contribution of the child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain was explored in explaining procedural pain and fear in children. Procedural fear and pain were investigated in 44 children with Type I diabetes undergoing a finger prick. The relationships between parents' catastrophizing and parents' own fear and estimates of their child's pain were also investigated. The children and their mothers completed questionnaires prior to a routine consultation with the diabetes physician. Children completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children (PCS-C) and provided ratings of their experienced pain and fear on a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). Parents completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale For Parents (PCS-P) d provided estimates of their child's pain and their own experienced fear on a 0-10 NRS. Analyses indicated that higher catastrophizing by children was associated with more fear and pain during the finger prick. Scores for parents' catastrophzing about their children's pain were positively related to parents' scores for their own fear, estimates of their children's pain, and child-reported fear, but not the amount of pain reported by the child. The findings attest to the importance of assessing for and targeting child and parents' catastrophizing about pain. Addressing catastrophizing and related fears and concerns of both parents and children may be necessary to assure appropriate self-management. Further investigation of the mechanisms relating catastrophizing to deleterious outcomes is warranted.

Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

Science.gov (United States)

Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

2014-01-01

We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles D Brummitt

Full Text Available We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe, causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

Multidimensional poverty and catastrophic health spending in the mountainous regions of Myanmar, Nepal and India.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohanty, Sanjay K; Agrawal, Nand Kishor; Mahapatra, Bidhubhusan; Choudhury, Dhrupad; Tuladhar, Sabarnee; Holmgren, E Valdemar

2017-01-18

Economic burden to households due to out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) is large in many Asian countries. Though studies suggest increasing household poverty due to high OOPE in developing countries, studies on association of multidimensional poverty and household health spending is limited. This paper tests the hypothesis that the multidimensionally poor are more likely to incur catastrophic health spending cutting across countries. Data from the Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment (PVA) Survey carried out by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has been used in the analyses. The PVA survey was a comprehensive household survey that covered the mountainous regions of India, Nepal and Myanmar. A total of 2647 households from India, 2310 households in Nepal and 4290 households in Myanmar covered under the PVA survey. Poverty is measured in a multidimensional framework by including the dimensions of education, income and energy, water and sanitation using the Alkire and Foster method. Health shock is measured using the frequency of illness, family sickness and death of any family member in a reference period of one year. Catastrophic health expenditure is defined as 40% above the household's capacity to pay. Results suggest that about three-fifths of the population in Myanmar, two-fifths of the population in Nepal and one-third of the population in India are multidimensionally poor. About 47% of the multidimensionally poor in India had incurred catastrophic health spending compared to 35% of the multidimensionally non-poor and the pattern was similar in both Nepal and Myanmar. The odds of incurring catastrophic health spending was 56% more among the multidimensionally poor than among the multidimensionally non-poor [95% CI: 1.35-1.76]. While health shocks to households are consistently significant predictors of catastrophic health spending cutting across country of residence, the educational attainment of the head of the household is

Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doerell, P. E.

1998-01-01

Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO 2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO 2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO 2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO 2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO 2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO 2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

2015-01-22

Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined using thresholds that vary with household income. The impoverishing effect of out-of-pocket health care payments is assessed using the Ugandan national poverty line and the World Bank poverty line ($1.25/day). A high level and intensity of both financial catastrophe and impoverishment due to out-of-pocket payments are recorded. Using an initial threshold of 10% of household income, about 23% of Ugandan households face financial ruin. Based on both the $1.25/day and the Ugandan poverty lines, about 4% of the population are further impoverished by such payments. This represents a relative increase in poverty head count of 17.1% and 18.1% respectively. The absence of financial protection in Uganda's health system calls for concerted action. Currently, out-of-pocket payments account for a large share of total health financing and there is no pooled prepayment system available. There is therefore a need to move towards mandatory prepayment. In this way, people could access the needed health services without any associated financial consequence.

Reliability analysis based on the losses from failures.

Science.gov (United States)

Todinov, M T

2006-04-01

The conventional reliability analysis is based on the premise that increasing the reliability of a system will decrease the losses from failures. On the basis of counterexamples, it is demonstrated that this is valid only if all failures are associated with the same losses. In case of failures associated with different losses, a system with larger reliability is not necessarily characterized by smaller losses from failures. Consequently, a theoretical framework and models are proposed for a reliability analysis, linking reliability and the losses from failures. Equations related to the distributions of the potential losses from failure have been derived. It is argued that the classical risk equation only estimates the average value of the potential losses from failure and does not provide insight into the variability associated with the potential losses. Equations have also been derived for determining the potential and the expected losses from failures for nonrepairable and repairable systems with components arranged in series, with arbitrary life distributions. The equations are also valid for systems/components with multiple mutually exclusive failure modes. The expected losses given failure is a linear combination of the expected losses from failure associated with the separate failure modes scaled by the conditional probabilities with which the failure modes initiate failure. On this basis, an efficient method for simplifying complex reliability block diagrams has been developed. Branches of components arranged in series whose failures are mutually exclusive can be reduced to single components with equivalent hazard rate, downtime, and expected costs associated with intervention and repair. A model for estimating the expected losses from early-life failures has also been developed. For a specified time interval, the expected losses from early-life failures are a sum of the products of the expected number of failures in the specified time intervals covering the

Systematic care management: a comprehensive approach to catastrophic injury management applied to a catastrophic burn injury population--clinical, utilization, economic, and outcome data in support of the model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kucan, John; Bryant, Ernest; Dimick, Alan; Sundance, Paula; Cope, Nathan; Richards, Reginald; Anderson, Chris

2010-01-01

The new standard for successful burn care encompasses both patient survival and the burn patient's long-term quality of life. To provide optimal long-term recovery from catastrophic injuries, including catastrophic burns, an outcome-based model using a new technology called systematic care management (SCM) has been developed. SCM provides a highly organized system of management throughout the spectrum of care that provides access to outcome data, consistent oversight, broader access to expert providers, appropriate allocation of resources, and greater understanding of total costs. Data from a population of 209 workers' compensation catastrophic burn cases with a mean TBSA of 27.9% who were managed under the SCM model of care were analyzed. The data include treatment type, cost, return to work, and outcomes achieved. Mean duration of management to achieve all guaranteed outcomes was 20 months. Of the 209 injured workers, 152 (72.7%) achieved sufficient recovery to be released to return to work, of which 97 (46.8%) were both released and competitively employed. Assessment of 10 domains of functional independence indicated that 47.2% of injured workers required total assistance at initiation of SCM. However, at termination of SCM, 84% of those injured workers were fully independent in the 10 functional activities. When compared with other burn research outcome data, the results support the value of the SCM model of care.

Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

2016-01-08

Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Catastrophic Disruption of Comet ISON

Science.gov (United States)

Keane, Jacqueline V.; Milam, Stefanie N.; Coulson, Iain M.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Sekanina, Zdenek; Kracht, Rainer; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J.; Charnley, Steven B.

2016-01-01

We report submillimeter 450 and 850 microns dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31-0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 (rh?=?0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60? (greater than 10(exp 5) km in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 microns image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing approximately 5.2?×?10(exp 10) kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

Routine versus aggressive upstream rhythm control for prevention of early atrial fibrillation in heart failure: background, aims and design of the RACE 3 study.

Science.gov (United States)

Alings, M; Smit, M D; Moes, M L; Crijns, H J G M; Tijssen, J G P; Brügemann, J; Hillege, H L; Lane, D A; Lip, G Y H; Smeets, J R L M; Tieleman, R G; Tukkie, R; Willems, F F; Vermond, R A; Van Veldhuisen, D J; Van Gelder, I C

2013-07-01

Rhythm control for atrial fibrillation (AF) is cumbersome because of its progressive nature caused by structural remodelling. Upstream therapy refers to therapeutic interventions aiming to modify the atrial substrate, leading to prevention of AF. The Routine versus Aggressive upstream rhythm Control for prevention of Early AF in heart failure (RACE 3) study hypothesises that aggressive upstream rhythm control increases persistence of sinus rhythm compared with conventional rhythm control in patients with early AF and mild-to-moderate early systolic or diastolic heart failure undergoing electrical cardioversion. RACE 3 is a prospective, randomised, open, multinational, multicenter trial. Upstream rhythm control consists of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and/or angiotensin receptor blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, statins, cardiac rehabilitation therapy, and intensive counselling on dietary restrictions, exercise maintenance, and drug adherence. Conventional rhythm control consists of routine rhythm control therapy without cardiac rehabilitation therapy and intensive counselling. In both arms, every effort is made to keep patients in the rhythm control strategy, and ion channel antiarrhythmic drugs or pulmonary vein ablation may be instituted if AF relapses. Total inclusion will be 250 patients. If upstream therapy proves to be effective in improving maintenance of sinus rhythm, it could become a new approach to rhythm control supporting conventional pharmacological and non-pharmacological rhythm control.

Cognitive influences on self-care decision making in persons with heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Dickson, Victoria V; Tkacs, Nancy; Riegel, Barbara

2007-09-01

Despite advances in management, heart failure is associated with high rates of hospitalization, poor quality of life, and early death. Education intended to improve patients' abilities to care for themselves is an integral component of disease management programs. True self-care requires that patients make decisions about symptoms, but the cognitive deficits documented in 30% to 50% of the heart failure population may make daily decision making challenging. After describing heart failure self-care as a naturalistic decision making process, we explore cognitive deficits known to exist in persons with heart failure. Problems in heart failure self-care are analyzed in relation to neural alterations associated with heart failure. As a neural process, decision making has been traced to regions of the prefrontal cortex, the same areas that are affected by ischemia, infarction, and hypoxemia in heart failure. Resulting deficits in memory, attention, and executive function may impair the perception and interpretation of early symptoms and reasoning and, thereby, delay early treatment implementation. There is compelling evidence that the neural processes critical to decision making are located in the same structures that are affected by heart failure. Because self-care requires the cognitive ability to learn, perceive, interpret, and respond, research is needed to discern how neural deficits affects these abilities, decision-making, and self-care behaviors.

Cardiorespiratory Failure in Thyroid Storm: Case Report and Literature Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Nai, Qiang; Ansari, Mohammad; Pak, Stella; Tian, Yufei; Amzad-Hossain, Mohammed; Zhang, Yanhong; Lou, Yali; Sen, Shuvendu; Islam, Mohammed

2018-04-01

Thyroid storm is a potentially fatal manifestation of thyrotoxicosis. Cardiopulmonary failure is the most common cause of death in thyroid storm. Clinicians should keep in mind that thyroid storm complicated with cardiopulmonary failure can be the first presentation of thyrotoxicosis. As early intervention is associated with improved patient outcome, prompt diagnosis based on clinical grounds is of paramount importance in the management of thyrotoxicosis. A high index of suspicion and the ability of early recognition of impending thyroid storm depends on a thorough knowledge of both the typical and atypical clinical features of this illness. Herein, we report a case of thyroid storm presenting as cardiopulmonary failure in a 51-year-old woman with undiagnosed Grave's disease. Additionally, we review the pathophysiology of cardiopulmonary failure associated with thyrotoxicosis and various treatment modalities for thyroid storm.

Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

OpenAIRE

Hewitt, Kenneth; Mehta, Manjari

2012-01-01

Cet article aborde la question des risques et des catastrophes en montagne. Il vise non pas à dissocier mais plutôt à replacer ces concepts au cœur des questions de sécurité publique et de développement des États contemporains. Cette approche des catastrophes se distingue des précédentes, pourtant considérablement renforcées par les stéréotypes habituels, propres à l’environnement montagnard. De fait, celles-ci étaient jusqu’alors centrées sur l’aléa naturel, sur son caractère extrême et impr...

Pain acceptance potentially mediates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and post-surgery outcomes among compensated lumbar fusion patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dance C

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Cassie Dance,1 M. Scott DeBerard,1 Jessica Gundy Cuneo2 1Department of Psychology, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 2Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA Purpose: Chronic low back pain is highly prevalent and often treatment recalcitrant condition, particularly among workers’ compensation patients. There is a need to identify psychological factors that may predispose such patients to pain chronicity. The primary aim of this study was to examine whether pain acceptance potentially mediated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and post-surgical outcomes in a sample of compensated lumbar fusion patients.Patients and methods: Patients insured with the Workers Compensation Fund of Utah and who were at least 2 years post-lumbar fusion surgery completed an outcome survey. These data were obtained from a prior retrospective-cohort study that administered measures of pain catastrophizing, pain acceptance, mental and physical health, and disability.Results: Of the 101 patients who completed the outcome survey, 75.2% were male with a mean age of 42.42 years and predominantly identified as White (97.0%. The majority of the participants had a posterior lumbar interbody fusion surgery. Pain acceptance, including activity engagement and pain willingness, was significantly correlated with better physical health and mental health, and lower disability rates. Pain catastrophizing was inversely correlated with measures of pain acceptance (activity engagement r=–0.67, p<0.01, pain willingness r=–0.73, p<0.01 as well as the outcome measures: mental health, physical health, and disability. Pain acceptance significantly mediated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and both mental and physical health and also the relationship between pain catastrophizing and disability. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that the relationship between pain catastrophizing and negative patient outcomes was potentially mediated

Seventh-day syndrome: a catastrophic event after liver transplantation: case report.

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, M; Ferreira, I; Gandara, J; Ferreira, S; Lopes, V; Coelho, A; Vizcaino, R; Marinho, A; Daniel, J; Miranda, H P

2015-05-01

Seventh-day syndrome (7DS) is an early serious complication of liver transplantation, characterized by sudden failure of a previously normally functioning liver graft ∼1 week after the surgery. Although it is an uncommon event, it has major associated mortality. As its etiology is yet to be recognized, the only currently available treatment is retransplantation. We present 3 cases of orthotopic liver transplantation recipients who had an initial uneventful recovery after surgery followed by a dramatic rise of serum liver enzyme levels ∼7 days later and hepatic failure with subsequent graft loss and death despite high-dose immunosuppressive therapy. Histologic findings showed massive centrolobular hemorrhage and hepatocellular necrosis with reduced inflammation. It is essential to review and accumulate more clinical and laboratory information to better understand this syndrome and to better prevent and treat it. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Prevalence of Different Treatment Failure Modes after Crown Lengthening Surgical Procedures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amirreza Babaloo

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Preservation of the health of periodontium is very important for the long-term success of restored teeth and a balance should always be created between the patients’ esthetic requirements and the periodontal health. Failures of crown lengthening procedures are classified into early and late failures. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of early failures of crown leathering surgical procedures. Materials and methods: In this descriptive/cross-sectional study, 96 patients were selected from those referring to the Department of Periodontitis, Tabriz Faculty of Dentistry, who required crown lengthening procedures. The particulars of these patients were recorded in special forms and the reasons for the failure of surgical procedures were separately determined at 2- and 6-week intervals. In addition, the frequencies of the reasons for failures were determined in percentages and absolute frequencies. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics (frequencies and percentages using SPSS 21. Statistical significance was set at P<0.05. Results: Evaluation of patients 6 weeks after surgery showed a failure rate of 14.5% for crown lengthening procedures in patients referring to the Department of Periodontics, Tabriz Faculty of Dentistry. The most common reasons for such early failures in the 6th week, in descending order, were a lack of sufficient keratinized gingiva around in tooth in question, fracture of the tooth structure after surgery, inadequate surgery (not creating a proper distance between the healthy margin and the crest and the coronal returning of the gingival tissue on the tooth. A lack of sufficient keratinized gingiva around the tooth was the most frequent reason for the early failure of crown lengthening procedure at both study intervals. Conclusion: It can be concluded from the results of the present study that during the 6th postoperative week the crown lengthening procedures exhibited a 14.5% failure rate

Deregulation of vital mitotic kinase-phosphatase signaling in hematopoietic stem/progenitor compartment leads to cellular catastrophe in experimental aplastic anemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatterjee, Ritam; Chattopadhyay, Sukalpa; Law, Sujata

2016-11-01

Aplastic anemia, the paradigm of bone marrow failure, is characterized by pancytopenic peripheral blood and hypoplastic bone marrow. Among various etiologies, inappropriate use of DNA alkylating drugs like cyclophosphamide and busulfan often causes the manifestation of the dreadful disease. Cell cycle impairment in marrow hematopoietic stem/progenitor compartment together with cellular apoptosis has been recognized as culpable factors behind aplastic pathophysiologies. However, the intricate molecular mechanisms remain unrevealed till date. In the present study, we have dealt with the mechanistic intervention of the disease by peripheral blood hemogram, bone marrow histopathology, cytopathology, hematopoietic kinetic study, scanning electron microscopy, DNA damage assessment and flowcytometric analysis of cellular proliferation and apoptosis in hematopoietic stem/progenitor cell (HSPC) rich marrow compartment using busulfan and cyclophosphamidemediated mouse model. To unveil the molecular mechanisms behind aplastic pathophysiology, we further investigated the role of some crucial mitotic and apoptotic regulators like Protein kinase-B (PKB), Gsk-3β, Cyclin-D1, PP2A, Cdc25c, Plk-1, Aurora kinase-A, Chk-1 regarding the hematopoietic catastrophe. Our observations revealed that the alteration of PKB-GSK-3β axis, Plk-1, and Aurora kinase-A expressions in HSPC compartment due to DNA damage response was associated with the proliferative impairment and apoptosis during aplastic anemia. The study established the correlation between the accumulation of DNA damage and alteration of the mentioned molecules in aplastic HSPCs that lead to the hematopoietic catastrophe. We anticipate that our findings will be beneficial for developing better therapeutic strategies for the dreadful disease concerned.

Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

2015-01-01

Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

A catastrophe model for the prospect-utility theory question.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliva, Terence A; McDade, Sean R

2008-07-01

Anomalies have played a big part in the analysis of decision making under risk. Both expected utility and prospect theories were born out of anomalies exhibited by actual decision making behavior. Since the same individual can use both expected utility and prospect approaches at different times, it seems there should be a means of uniting the two. This paper turns to nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS), specifically a catastrophe model, to help suggest an 'out of the box' line of solution toward integration. We use a cusp model to create a value surface whose control dimensions are involvement and gains versus losses. By including 'involvement' as a variable the importance of the individual's psychological state is included, and it provides a rationale for how decision makers' changes from expected utility to prospect might occur. Additionally, it provides a possible explanation for what appears to be even more irrational decisions that individuals make when highly emotionally involved. We estimate the catastrophe model using a sample of 997 gamblers who attended a casino and compare it to the linear model using regression. Hence, we have actual data from individuals making real bets, under real conditions.

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

Science.gov (United States)

Gunardi, Setiawan, Ezra Putranda

2015-12-01

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth's tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, `act-of-God bond', or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake's magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, `coupon only at risk' bond, and `principal and coupon at risk' bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model's parameter, GEV's parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

Earth's Largest Terrestrial Landslide (The Markagunt Gravity Slide of Southwest Utah): Insights from the Catastrophic Collapse of a Volcanic Field

Science.gov (United States)

Hacker, D. B.; Biek, R. F.; Rowley, P. D.

2015-12-01

The newly discovered Miocene Markagunt gravity slide (MGS; Utah, USA) represents the largest volcanic landslide structure on Earth. Recent geologic mapping of the MGS indicates that it was a large contiguous volcanic sheet of allochthonous andesitic mudflow breccias and lava flows, volcaniclastic rocks, and intertonguing regional ash-flow tuffs that blanketed an area of at least 5000 km2 with an estimated volume of ~3000 km3. From its breakaway zone in the Tushar and Mineral Mountains to its southern limits, the MGS is over 95 km long and at least 65 km wide. The MGS consists of four distinct structural segments: 1) a high-angle breakaway segment, 2) a bedding-plane segment, ~60 km long and ~65 km wide, typically located within the volcaniclastic Eocene-Oligocene Brian Head Formation, 3) a ramp segment ~1-2 km wide where the slide cuts upsection, and 4) a former land surface segment where the upper-plate moved at least 35 km over the Miocene landscape. The presence of basal and lateral cataclastic breccias, clastic dikes, jigsaw puzzle fracturing, internal shears, pseudotachylytes, and the overall geometry of the MGS show that it represents a single catastrophic emplacement event. The MGS represents gravitationally induced collapse of the southwest sector of the Oligocene to Miocene Marysvale volcanic field. We suggest that continuous growth of the Marysvale volcanic field, loading more volcanic rocks on a structurally weak Brian Head basement, created conditions necessary for gravity sliding. In addition, inflation of the volcanic pile due to multiple magmatic intrusions tilted the strata gently southward, inducing lateral spreading of the sub-volcanic rocks prior to failure. Although similar smaller-scale failures have been recognized from individual volcanoes, the MGS represents a new class of low frequency but high impact hazards associated with catastrophic sector collapse of large volcanic fields containing multiple volcanoes. The relationship of the MGS to

Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yangyang; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran

2017-09-01

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend.

Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

2009-12-29

A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

Risk indices of an ecological catastrophe because of a severe accident, its insurance, and their measurement units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pampuro, V.I.

2001-01-01

The critical analysis of the existing measurement units of the risk of an ecological catastrophe because of severe accidents is performed. The mistake of using the measurement unit 'reactor/year' for estimation of ecological catastrophe's consequences is shown. The complex for risk assessment by costs to ensure the ecological safety is introduced. The index of virtual accident insurance is suggested

Predicting Catastrophic Phase Inversion on the Basis of Droplet Coalescence Kinetics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vaessen, G.E.J.; Visschers, M.; Stein, H.N.

1996-01-01

A predictive model for catastrophic phase inversion, based on the kinetics of droplet breakup and coalescence, is presented here. Two inversion mechanisms can be distinguished, depending on the direction of the phase inversion process. With the surfactant predominantly present in the dispersed

Failure criterion effect on solid production prediction and selection of completion solution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dariush Javani

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Production of fines together with reservoir fluid is called solid production. It varies from a few grams or less per ton of reservoir fluid posing only minor problems, to catastrophic amount possibly leading to erosion and complete filling of the borehole. This paper assesses solid production potential in a carbonate gas reservoir located in the south of Iran. Petrophysical logs obtained from the vertical well were employed to construct mechanical earth model. Then, two failure criteria, i.e. Mohr–Coulomb and Mogi–Coulomb, were used to investigate the potential of solid production of the well in the initial and depleted conditions of the reservoir. Using these two criteria, we estimated critical collapse pressure and compared them to the reservoir pressure. Solid production occurs if collapse pressure is greater than pore pressure. Results indicate that the two failure criteria show different estimations of solid production potential of the studied reservoir. Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion estimated solid production in both initial and depleted conditions, where Mogi–Coulomb criterion predicted no solid production in the initial condition of reservoir. Based on Mogi–Coulomb criterion, the well may not require completion solutions like perforated liner, until at least 60% of reservoir pressure was depleted which leads to decrease in operation cost and time.

Ensemble learning in fixed expansion layer networks for mitigating catastrophic forgetting.

Science.gov (United States)

Coop, Robert; Mishtal, Aaron; Arel, Itamar

2013-10-01

Catastrophic forgetting is a well-studied attribute of most parameterized supervised learning systems. A variation of this phenomenon, in the context of feedforward neural networks, arises when nonstationary inputs lead to loss of previously learned mappings. The majority of the schemes proposed in the literature for mitigating catastrophic forgetting were not data driven and did not scale well. We introduce the fixed expansion layer (FEL) feedforward neural network, which embeds a sparsely encoding hidden layer to help mitigate forgetting of prior learned representations. In addition, we investigate a novel framework for training ensembles of FEL networks, based on exploiting an information-theoretic measure of diversity between FEL learners, to further control undesired plasticity. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a basic classification task, clearly emphasizing its advantages over existing techniques. The architecture proposed can be enhanced to address a range of computational intelligence tasks, such as regression problems and system control.

1.5 °C ? - Solutions for avoiding catastrophic climate change in this century

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Y.

2017-12-01

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to "well below 2 °C." Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend. In addition to present the analysis above, I will also share (1) perspective on developed and developing world actions and interactions on climate solutions; (2) Prof V. Ramanathan's interactions with the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and other religious groups which are highly valuable to the interdisciplinary audience.

Statistical and machine learning approaches for the minimization of trigger errors in parametric earthquake catastrophe bonds

OpenAIRE

Calvet, Laura

2017-01-01

Catastrophe bonds are financial instruments designed to transfer risk of monetary losses arising from earthquakes, hurricanes, or floods to the capital markets. The insurance and reinsurance industry, governments, and private entities employ them frequently to obtain coverage. Parametric catastrophe bonds base their payments on physical features. For instance, given parameters such as magnitude of the earthquake and the location of its epicentre, the bond may pay a fixed amount or not pay at ...

Cardiorespiratory Failure in Thyroid Storm: Case Report and Literature Review

Science.gov (United States)

Nai, Qiang; Ansari, Mohammad; Pak, Stella; Tian, Yufei; Amzad-Hossain, Mohammed; Zhang, Yanhong; Lou, Yali; Sen, Shuvendu; Islam, Mohammed

2018-01-01

Thyroid storm is a potentially fatal manifestation of thyrotoxicosis. Cardiopulmonary failure is the most common cause of death in thyroid storm. Clinicians should keep in mind that thyroid storm complicated with cardiopulmonary failure can be the first presentation of thyrotoxicosis. As early intervention is associated with improved patient outcome, prompt diagnosis based on clinical grounds is of paramount importance in the management of thyrotoxicosis. A high index of suspicion and the ability of early recognition of impending thyroid storm depends on a thorough knowledge of both the typical and atypical clinical features of this illness. Herein, we report a case of thyroid storm presenting as cardiopulmonary failure in a 51-year-old woman with undiagnosed Grave’s disease. Additionally, we review the pathophysiology of cardiopulmonary failure associated with thyrotoxicosis and various treatment modalities for thyroid storm. PMID:29511425

Surveillance and monitoring experiences of chemical water-steam cycle in combined-cycle power plants (CCCs in Spanish acronyms) for early diagnosis of failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santaolalla losada, E.

2010-01-01

In the present work is made a brief comparative review of the treatments effected in water of the cycle, their purpose, types, monitoring and tracking. Moreover, are described the most important failure mechanisms that can be related to the chemistry of cycle with the aim to establish monitoring guidelines to increase the reliability of the power plant and enable an early diagnosis. (Author)

Tatra's forests will recover from catastrophe for decades

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haluza, I.

2004-01-01

Windy tornado in Tatra's national park (TANAP, High Tatras, Slovakia) at the end of 2004 caused extensive ecological catastrophe and economic losses. Wind has totally damaged the trees in more than one fourth of forest area, which is administrated by state forests of TANAP. Next fourth of forest area has impaired structure. Mostly coniferous forests have fallen down not only in High Tatras, but also in Horehronie, Kysuce, Orava and Spis. According to estimates around 2.5 million cubic meters of wood have lain on the ground in High Tatras. This wood must be precipitately processed. In another regions totally from 800 to 900 thousands cubic meters are overcame by wind. Ecological catastrophe has come in High Tatras. Totally damaged large forests areas need to be recovered for long decades. 90 per cent of annual Slovakian wood cutting represents totally 2.5 million cubic meters. The state will invest in forest recovery from sale of calamity stuff. Reforestation of one hectare of forest costs from 80 to 90 thousands Slovak crowns (∼2666-3000 USD). Another remedies at the age to five years represent from 40 to 50 thousands Slovak crowns (1333-16666 USD). Around 1.6 billion Slovak crown (∼53.333 million USD) will be needed for reforestation of 12 thousands hectares of TANAP

Early Phase Contingency Trajectory Design for the Failure of the First Lunar Orbit Insertion Maneuver: Direct Recovery Options

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Young-Joo; Bae, Jonghee; Kim, Young-Rok; Kim, Bang-Yeop

2017-12-01

To ensure the successful launch of the Korea pathfinder lunar orbiter (KPLO) mission, the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) is now performing extensive trajectory design and analysis studies. From the trajectory design perspective, it is crucial to prepare contingency trajectory options for the failure of the first lunar brake or the failure of the first lunar orbit insertion (LOI) maneuver. As part of the early phase trajectory design and analysis activities, the required time of flight (TOF) and associated delta-V magnitudes for each recovery maneuver (RM) to recover the KPLO mission trajectory are analyzed. There are two typical trajectory recovery options, direct recovery and low energy recovery. The current work is focused on the direct recovery option. Results indicate that a quicker execution of the first RM after the failure of the first LOI plays a significant role in saving the magnitudes of the RMs. Under the conditions of the extremely tight delta-V budget that is currently allocated for the KPLO mission, it is found that the recovery of the KPLO without altering the originally planned mission orbit (a 100 km circular orbit) cannot be achieved via direct recovery options. However, feasible recovery options are suggested within the boundaries of the currently planned delta-V budget. By changing the shape and orientation of the recovered final mission orbit, it is expected that the KPLO mission may partially pursue its scientific mission after successful recovery, though it will be limited.

Determinants of catastrophic health expenditure in iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Abolhallaje, M; Hasani, Sa; Bastani, P; Ramezanian, M; Kazemian, M

2013-01-01

This study will provide detailed specification of those variables and determinants of unpredictable health expenditure in Iran, and the requirements to reduce extensive effects of the factors affecting households' payments for health and other goods and services inappropriately. This study aims to identify measures of fair financing of health services and determinants of fair financing contribution, regarding the required share of households that prevents their catastrophic payments. In this regard, analysis of shares of households' expenditures on main groups of goods and services in urban and rural areas and in groups of deciles in the statistics from households' expenditure surveys was applied. The growth of spending in nominal values within the years 2002-2008 was considerably high and the rate for out-of-pocket payments is nearly the same or greater than the rate for total health expenditure. In 2008, urban and rural households in average pay 6.4% and 6.35% of their total expenditure on health services. Finally three categories of determinants of unfair and catastrophic payments by households were recognized in terms of households' socio-economic status, equality/inequality conditions of the distribution of risk of financing, and economic aspects of health expenditure distribution. While extending the total share of government and prepayment sources of financing health services are considered as the simplest policy for limiting out-of-pocket payments, indicators and policies introduced in this study could also be considered important and useful for the development of health sector and easing access to health services, irrespective of health financing fairness.

Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

CERN Multimedia

Françoise Benz

2005-01-01

2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

Catastrophe Finance: An Emerging Discipline

Science.gov (United States)

Elsner, James B.; Burch, R. King; Jagger, Thomas H.

2009-08-01

While the recent disasters in the world's financial markets demonstrate that finance theory remains far from perfected, science also faces steep challenges in the quest to predict and manage the effects of natural disasters. Worldwide, as many as half a million people have died in disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and tropical cyclones since the turn of the 21st century [Wirtz, 2008]. Further, natural disasters can lead to extreme financial losses, and independent financial collapses can be exacerbated by natural disasters. In financial cost, 2008 was the second most expensive year on record for such catastrophes and for financial market declines. These extreme events in the natural and financial realms push the issue of risk management to the fore, expose the deficiencies of existing knowledge and practice, and suggest that progress requires further research and training at the graduate level.

CATASTROPHIC DISRUPTION OF COMET ISON

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keane, Jacqueline V.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Milam, Stefanie N.; Charnley, Steven B. [Astrochemistry Laboratory, NASA GSFC, MS 690, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Coulson, Iain M. [Joint Astronomy Center, 660 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Sekanina, Zdenek [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Kracht, Rainer, E-mail: keane@ifa.hawaii.edu [Ostlandring 53, D-25335 Elmshorn, Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

2016-11-10

We report submillimeter 450 and 850 μ m dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31–0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 ( r {sub h} = 0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60″ (>10{sup 5} km) in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 μ m image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing ∼5.2 × 10{sup 10} kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, G.

2009-04-01

The decision by civic authorities to evacuate an area threatened by a natural hazard is especially fraught when the population in harm's way is extremely large, and where there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial footprint, scale, and strike time of a hazard event. Traditionally viewed as a hazard forecasting issue, civil authorities turn to scientists for advice on a potentially imminent dangerous event. However, the level of scientific confidence varies enormously from one peril and crisis situation to another. With superior observational data, meteorological and hydrological hazards are generally better forecast than geological hazards. But even with Atlantic hurricanes, the track and intensity of a hurricane can change significantly within a few hours. This complicated and delayed the decision to call an evacuation of New Orleans when threatened by Hurricane Katrina, and would present a severe dilemma if a major hurricane were appearing to head for New York. Evacuation needs to be perceived as a risk issue, requiring the expertise of catastrophe risk modellers as well as geoscientists. Faced with evidence of a great earthquake in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, seismologists were reluctant to give a tsunami warning without more direct sea observations. Yet, from a risk perspective, the risk to coastal populations would have warranted attempts at tsunami warning, even though there was significant uncertainty in the hazard forecast, and chance of a false alarm. A systematic coherent risk-based framework for evacuation decision-making exists, which weighs the advantages of an evacuation call against the disadvantages. Implicitly and qualitatively, such a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken by civic authorities whenever an evacuation is considered. With the progress in catastrophe risk modelling, such an analysis can be made explicit and quantitative, providing a transparent audit trail for the decision process. A stochastic event set, the core of a

Using Google Earth To Interpret The Southern Taiwan Hsiaolin Village Catastrophe

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Y. H.; Huang, C. M.; Keck, J.; Wei, L. W.; Pan, K. L.

2012-04-01

The August, 2009 Typhoon Morakot resulted in accumulated rainfalls exceeding 2000 mm and the triggering of a massive debris flow that buried Hsiaolin village. Hundreds of people were killed and both domestic and international natural disaster prevention agencies took note of this large scale disaster that was not prevented. Interpretation of Google Earth satellite images reveals that the Hsiaolin debris flow originated in a single location and then split into two parts. The northern debris flow, the smaller of the two parts, flowed within a ravine. The southern part of the debris flow, much larger than the northern part, was responsible for the burial of Hsiaolin village. The movement of the debris flow can be divided into three processes. First a slope failure and subsequent debris flow occurred within a curved ravine. Second, the debris flow eroded the bank of the ravine laterally, causing translational failure of the ravine walls. A massive debris flow, made up of a combination of materials from both the original debris flow and the ravine walls, jammed within the ravine. Finally, as a result of the jam, the debris flow was redirected towards Hsiaolin village. Overlaying locations of the post-Hsiaolin debris flow landforms on top of pre-failure satellite images reveals that characteristics of the post failure landforms match perfectly with characteristics observed in the pre-failure satellite images. This finding supports the thought that large scale geologic disasters are reoccurring. This finding also suggests that areas near villages can use simple satellite image analysis to rapidly identify ancient landslides and that such information may help early evacuation planning. With such planning, property and life losses due to natural disasters can be reduced. Key word: Hsiaolin Village, Debris Flow, Remote Sensing, Image Interpretation, Cause of Disaster, Disaster Recovery, Deep-Seated Landslide, Ancient Debris Flow

Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fruergaard, Mikkel; Kroon, Aart

2016-01-01

storms are capable of moving large amounts of sediments over relatively short time-periods and can create barrier shoals, whereas moderate storms mostly rework the shoal or barrier and create more local erosion and/or landward migration. Catastrophic storms substantially influence long-term and large...

Abstracts of papers of international scientific conference 'Ten Years After the Chernobyl Catastrophe (Scientific Aspects of Problem)'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konoplya, E.F.; Amvros'ev, A.P.; Bogdevich, I.M.; Bondar', Yu.I.; Karaseva, E.I.; Lobanok, L.M.; Matsko, V.P.; Pikulik, M.M.; Rolevich, I.V.; Stozharov, A.N.; Yakushev, B.I.

1996-02-01

The collection is dedicated to the 10 anniversary of Chernobyl catastrophe and contains the results of researches carried out in Belarus, as well as in Ukraine and Russian Federation, on different aspects of the Chernobyl problems: radiation medicine and risks, biological radiation effects and their forecasting, agricultural radiology and radioecology, decontamination and radioactive waste management, socio-economic and psychologic problems caused by the Chernobyl Catastrophe. (authors)

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunardi,; Setiawan, Ezra Putranda

2015-01-01

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gunardi,; Setiawan, Ezra Putranda [Mathematics Department, Gadjah Mada University (Indonesia)

2015-12-22

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

Assessing the impoverishing effects, and factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic health care payments in Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Barasa, Edwine W; Maina, Thomas; Ravishankar, Nirmala

2017-02-06

Monitoring the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure, as well as the impoverishing effects of out of pocket costs to access healthcare, is a key part of benchmarking Kenya's progress towards reducing the financial burden that households experience when accessing healthcare. The study relies on data from the nationally-representative Kenya Household Expenditure and Utilization Survey conducted in 2013 (n =33,675). We undertook health equity analysis to estimate the incidence and intensity of catastrophic expenditure. Households were considered to have incurred catastrophic expenditures if their annual out of-pocket health expenditures exceeded 40% of their annual non-food expenditure. We assessed the impoverishing effects of out of pocket payments using the Kenya national poverty line. We distinguished between direct payments for healthcare such as payments for consultation, medicines, medical procedures, and total healthcare expenditure that includes direct healthcare payments and the cost of transportation to and from health facilities. We used logistic regression analysis to explore the factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic expenditures. When only direct payments to healthcare providers were considered, the incidence of catastrophic expenditures was 4.52%. When transport costs are included, the incidence of catastrophic expenditure increased to 6.58%. 453,470 Kenyans are pushed into poverty annually as a result of direct payments for healthcare. When the cost of transport is included, that number increases by more than one third to 619,541. Unemployment of the household head, presence of an elderly person, a person with a chronic ailment, a large household size, lower household social-economic status, and residence in marginalized regions of the country are significantly associated with increased odds of incurring catastrophic expenditures. Kenyan policy makers should prioritize extending pre-payment mechanisms to more

Utility of CD4 cell counts for early prediction of virological failure during antiretroviral therapy in a resource-limited setting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lawn Stephen D

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Viral load monitoring is not available for the vast majority of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings. However, the practical utility of CD4 cell count measurements as an alternative monitoring strategy has not been rigorously assessed. Methods In this study, we used a novel modelling approach that accounted for all CD4 cell count and VL values measured during follow-up from the first date that VL suppression was achieved. We determined the associations between CD4 counts (absolute values and changes during ART, VL measurements and risk of virological failure (VL > 1,000 copies/ml following initial VL suppression in 330 patients in South Africa. CD4 count changes were modelled both as the difference from baseline (ΔCD4 count and the difference between consecutive values (CD4 count slope using all 3-monthly CD4 count measurements during follow-up. Results During 7093.2 patient-months of observation 3756 paired CD4 count and VL measurements were made. In patients who developed virological failure (n = 179, VL correlated significantly with absolute CD4 counts (r = - 0.08, P = 0.003, ΔCD4 counts (r = - 0.11, P P P = 0.99, P = 0.92 and P = 0.75, respectively. Moreover, in a receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve, the association between a negative CD4 count slope and virological failure was poor (area under the curve = 0.59; sensitivity = 53.0%; specificity = 63.6%; positive predictive value = 10.9%. Conclusion CD4 count changes correlated significantly with VL at group level but had very limited utility in identifying virological failure in individual patients. CD4 count is an inadequate alternative to VL measurement for early detection of virological failure.

Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

2001-01-01

Communities in lowlands near volcanoes are vulnerable to significant volcanic flow hazards in addition to those associated directly with eruptions. The largest such risk is from debris flows beginning as volcanic landslides, with the potential to travel over 100 kilometers. Stratovolcanic edifices commonly are hydrothermal aquifers composed of unstable, altered rock forming steep slopes at high altitudes, and the terrain surrounding them is commonly mantled by readily mobilized, weathered airfall and ashflow deposits. We propose that volcano hazard assessments integrate the potential for unanticipated debris flows with, at active volcanoes, the greater but more predictable potential of magmatically triggered flows. This proposal reinforces the already powerful arguments for minimizing populations in potential flow pathways below both active and selected inactive volcanoes. It also addresses the potential for volcano flank collapse to occur with instability early in a magmatic episode, as well as the 'false-alarm problem'-the difficulty in evacuating the potential paths of these large mobile flows. Debris flows that transform from volcanic landslides, characterized by cohesive (muddy) deposits, create risk comparable to that of their syneruptive counterparts of snow and ice-melt origin, which yield noncohesive (granular) deposits, because: (1) Volcano collapses and the failures of airfall- and ashflow-mantled slopes commonly yield highly mobile debris flows as well as debris avalanches with limited runout potential. Runout potential of debris flows may increase several fold as their volumes enlarge beyond volcanoes through bulking (entrainment) of sediment. Through this mechanism, the runouts of even relatively small collapses at Cascade Range volcanoes, in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 cubic kilometers, can extend to populated lowlands. (2) Collapse is caused by a variety of triggers: tectonic and volcanic earthquakes, gravitational failure, hydrovolcanism, and

Vascular Cognitive Impairment Linked to Brain Endothelium Inflammation in Early Stages of Heart Failure in Mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Adamski, Mateusz G; Sternak, Magdalena; Mohaissen, Tasnim; Kaczor, Dawid; Wierońska, Joanna M; Malinowska, Monika; Czaban, Iwona; Byk, Katarzyna; Lyngsø, Kristina S; Przyborowski, Kamil; Hansen, Pernille B L; Wilczyński, Grzegorz; Chlopicki, Stefan

2018-03-26

Although advanced heart failure (HF) is a clinically documented risk factor for vascular cognitive impairment, the occurrence and pathomechanisms of vascular cognitive impairment in early stages of HF are equivocal. Here, we characterize vascular cognitive impairment in the early stages of HF development and assess whether cerebral hypoperfusion or prothrombotic conditions are involved. Tgαq*44 mice with slowly developing isolated HF triggered by cardiomyocyte-specific overexpression of G-αq*44 protein were studied before the end-stage HF, at the ages of 3, 6, and 10 months: before left ventricle dysfunction; at the stage of early left ventricle diastolic dysfunction (with preserved ejection fraction); and left ventricle diastolic/systolic dysfunction, respectively. In 6- to 10-month-old but not in 3-month-old Tgαq*44 mice, behavioral and cognitive impairment was identified with compromised blood-brain barrier permeability, most significantly in brain cortex, that was associated with myelin sheet loss and changes in astrocytes and microglia. Brain endothelial cells displayed increased E-selectin immunoreactivity, which was accompanied by increased amyloid-β 1-42 accumulation in piriform cortex and increased cortical oxidative stress (8-OHdG immunoreactivity). Resting cerebral blood flow measured by magnetic resonance imaging in vivo was preserved, but ex vivo NO-dependent cortical arteriole flow regulation was impaired. Platelet hyperreactivity was present in 3- to 10-month-old Tgαq*44 mice, but it was not associated with increased platelet-dependent thrombogenicity. We report for the first time that vascular cognitive impairment is already present in the early stage of HF development, even before left ventricle systolic dysfunction. The underlying pathomechanism, independent of brain hypoperfusion, involves preceding platelet hyperreactivity and brain endothelium inflammatory activation. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart

Expected utility and catastrophic risk in a stochastic economy-climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ikefuji, M. [Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka (Japan); Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Muris, C. [CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands)

2010-11-15

In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected utility with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typically model economic catastrophes by probability distributions with heavy tails. Unfortunately, the expected utility framework is fragile with respect to heavy-tailed distributional assumptions. We specify a stochastic economy-climate model with power utility and explicitly demonstrate this fragility. We derive necessary and sufficient compatibility conditions on the utility function to avoid fragility and solve our stochastic economy-climate model for two examples of such compatible utility functions. We further develop and implement a procedure to learn the input parameters of our model and show that the model thus specified produces quite robust optimal policies. The numerical results indicate that higher levels of uncertainty (heavier tails) lead to less abatement and consumption, and to more investment, but this effect is not unlimited.

Focus on renal congestion in heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Afsar, Baris; Ortiz, Alberto; Covic, Adrian; Solak, Yalcin; Goldsmith, David; Kanbay, Mehmet

2016-02-01

Hospitalizations due to heart failure are increasing steadily despite advances in medicine. Patients hospitalized for worsening heart failure have high mortality in hospital and within the months following discharge. Kidney dysfunction is associated with adverse outcomes in heart failure patients. Recent evidence suggests that both deterioration in kidney function and renal congestion are important prognostic factors in heart failure. Kidney congestion in heart failure results from low cardiac output (forward failure), tubuloglomerular feedback, increased intra-abdominal pressure or increased venous pressure. Regardless of the cause, renal congestion is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in heart failure. The impact on outcomes of renal decongestion strategies that do not compromise renal function should be explored in heart failure. These studies require novel diagnostic markers that identify early renal damage and renal congestion and allow monitoring of treatment responses in order to avoid severe worsening of renal function. In addition, there is an unmet need regarding evidence-based therapeutic management of renal congestion and worsening renal function. In the present review, we summarize the mechanisms, diagnosis, outcomes, prognostic markers and treatment options of renal congestion in heart failure.

Elementary catastrophe theory modelling of Duffing's equation for seismic excitation of nuclear power facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alesso, H.P.

1979-01-01

Elementary catastrophe theory can provide conceptual insight into some aspects of a variety of problems in dynamics. It is a qualitative tool with some quantitative results. In this paper, it is applied to forced nonlinear vibrations of seismic disturbances, which may be approximated by Duffin's equation. The behavior of such a system fits naturally into ECT modelling, where changes in parameters of the system lead to 'jump' type behavior. The important conclusion is that nonlinear oscillators can exhibit elementary catastrophes, but the design engineer may be able to manipulate characteristics of the system in order to avoid the 'jump' behavior of the response. (Auth.)

Myth and catastrophic reality: using cosmogonic mythology to identify cosmic impacts and massive plinian eruptions in holocene South America.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Masse, W. B. (William Bruce)

2004-01-01

Major natural catastrophes (e.g., 'universal' floods, fire, darkness, and sky falling down) are prominently reflected in traditional South American creation myths, cosmology, religion, and worldview. We are now beginning to recognize that cosmogonic myths represent a rich and largely untapped data set concerning the most dramatic natural events and processes experienced by each cultural group during the past several thousand years. Observational details regarding specific catastrophes are encoded in myth storylines, typically cast in terms of supernatural characters and actions. Not only are the myths amenable to scientific analysis, but also some sets of myths encode multiple catastrophes in meaningful relative chronological order. The present study considers more than 4200 myths, including more than 260 'universal' catastrophe myths from cultural groups throughout South America. These myths are examined in light of available geological, paleoenvironmental, archeological, and documentary evidence. Our analysis reveals three possible ultra-plinian volcanic eruptions, two in Columbia and the other in the Gran Chaco, the latter likely associated with a poorly dated late Holocene eruption of Nuevo Mundo in central Bolivia. Our analysis also identifies a set of traditions likely linked with the well-known Campo del Cielo iron meteorite impact in northern Argentina originally hypothesized to have occurred around 4000 years ago. Intriguingly, these traditions strongly suggest that the Campo del Cielo impact triggered widespread mass fires in the Gran Chaco region and possibly in the Brazilian Highlands. Several other potential cosmic impacts, distinct from Campo del Cielo, are hinted at in the mythology of other locations in South America. The numerous catastrophe myths in the Gran Chaco region exhibit the most coherent chronological sequence of any South American region. The sequence begins with a 'Great Flood,' by far the most widespread

Accuracy of a Rationally Derived Method for Identifying Treatment Failure in Children and Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Bishop, Matthew J.; Bybee, Taige S.; Lambert, Michael J.; Burlingame, Gary M.; Wells, M. Gawain; Poppleton, Landon E.

2005-01-01

Psychotherapy outcome can be enhanced by early identification of potential treatment failures before they leave treatment. In adults, compelling data are emerging that provide evidence that an early warning system that identifies potential treatment failures can be developed and applied to enhance outcome. The present study reports an analysis of…

The resilient banality of catastrophes: about After Fukushima by Jean-Luc Nancy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tonaki, Yotetsu

2016-01-01

The author proposes some thoughts based on a book (The equivalence of catastrophes - After Fukushima) written by the French philosopher Jean-Luc Nancy for whom Fukushima cannot be reduced to technological dysfunctions, nor to a factor attributable to men in charge, but reveals a system of general equivalence which supports a whole civilisation. The author refers to the speech on safety engineering and on resilience in Japan, and outlines some surprising correspondences with Nancy's writings. With a reference to Heidegger, the author shows that what the catastrophe reveals is not only daunting or abnormal phenomena, but also and above all an almost ontological condition which command the normal operation of every day life. Based on Anders' works, he examines what is on in this techno-sphere which is finally similar to a 'self-transformation of the human being'

Hydrogen atom in a magnetic field: Ghost orbits, catastrophes, and uniform semiclassical approximations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Main, J.; Wunner, G.

1997-01-01

Applying closed-orbit theory to the recurrence spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field, one can interpret most, but not all, structures semiclassically in terms of closed classical orbits. In particular, conventional closed-orbit theory fails near bifurcations of orbits where semiclassical amplitudes exhibit unphysical divergences. Here we analyze the role of ghost orbits living in complex phase space. The ghosts can explain resonance structures in the spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field at positions where no real orbits exist. For three different types of catastrophes, viz. fold, cusp, and butterfly catastrophes, we construct uniform semiclassical approximations and demonstrate that these solutions are completely determined by classical parameters of the real orbits and complex ghosts. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

Management of growth failure in the treatment of malignant disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leiper, A.D.

1990-01-01

Growth failure due to endocrine dysfunction as a result of treatment for malignant disease is becoming increasingly common. It may occur after cranial or craniospinal irradiation given in the treatment of acute lymphoblastic leukemia and brain tumors, and is often coupled with early or precocious puberty. It also occurs after neck and gonadal radiation and is particularly severe after total body irradiation where multiple endocrine deficiencies frequently occur. Failure to appreciate its occurrence or failure to institute therapy early enough may lead to short stature in adult life. Accurate and regular monitoring of standing and sitting height, bone age, and endocrine data should be undertaken by the oncologist in close collaboration with an endocrinologist, to ensure appropriate management of the patient. 17 references

S. pombe kinesins-8 promote both nucleation and catastrophe of microtubules.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muriel Erent

Full Text Available The kinesins-8 were originally thought to be microtubule depolymerases, but are now emerging as more versatile catalysts of microtubule dynamics. We show here that S. pombe Klp5-436 and Klp6-440 are non-processive plus-end-directed motors whose in vitro velocities on S. pombe microtubules at 7 and 23 nm s(-1 are too slow to keep pace with the growing tips of dynamic interphase microtubules in living S. pombe. In vitro, Klp5 and 6 dimers exhibit a hitherto-undescribed combination of strong enhancement of microtubule nucleation with no effect on growth rate or catastrophe frequency. By contrast in vivo, both Klp5 and Klp6 promote microtubule catastrophe at cell ends whilst Klp6 also increases the number of interphase microtubule arrays (IMAs. Our data support a model in which Klp5/6 bind tightly to free tubulin heterodimers, strongly promoting the nucleation of new microtubules, and then continue to land as a tubulin-motor complex on the tips of growing microtubules, with the motors then dissociating after a few seconds residence on the lattice. In vivo, we predict that only at cell ends, when growing microtubule tips become lodged and their growth slows down, will Klp5/6 motor activity succeed in tracking growing microtubule tips. This mechanism would allow Klp5/6 to detect the arrival of microtubule tips at cells ends and to amplify the intrinsic tendency for microtubules to catastrophise in compression at cell ends. Our evidence identifies Klp5 and 6 as spatial regulators of microtubule dynamics that enhance both microtubule nucleation at the cell centre and microtubule catastrophe at the cell ends.

Assessing Risks of Mine Tailing Dam Failures

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Concha Larrauri, P.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

The consequences of tailings dam failures can be catastrophic for communities and ecosystems in the vicinity of the dams. The failure of the Fundão tailings dam at the Samarco mine in 2015 killed 19 people with severe consequences for the environment. The financial and legal consequences of a tailings dam failure can also be significant for the mining companies. For the Fundão tailings dam, the company had to pay 6 billion dollars in fines and twenty-one executives were charged with qualified murder. There are tenths of thousands of active, inactive, and abandoned tailings dams in the world and there is a need to better understand the hazards posed by these structures to downstream populations and ecosystems. A challenge to assess the risks of tailings dams in a large scale is that many of them are not registered in publicly available databases and there is little information about their current physical state. Additionally, hazard classifications of tailings dams - common in many countries- tend to be subjective, include vague parameter definitions, and are not always updated over time. Here we present a simple methodology to assess and rank the exposure to tailings dams using ArcGIS that removes subjective interpretations. The method uses basic information such as current dam height, storage volume, topography, population, land use, and hydrological data. A hazard rating risk was developed to compare the potential extent of the damage across dams. This assessment provides a general overview of what in the vicinity of the tailings dams could be affected in case of a failure and a way to rank tailings dams that is directly linked to the exposure at any given time. One hundred tailings dams in Minas Gerais, Brazil were used for the test case. This ranking approach could inform the risk management strategy of the tailings dams within a company, and when disclosed, it could enable shareholders and the communities to make decisions on the risks they are taking.

A cusp catastrophe model of mid-long-term landslide evolution over low latitude highlands of China

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Tao, Yun; Cao, Jie; Hu, Jinming; Dai, Zhicheng

2013-04-01

Based on a model describing a certain landslide case and catastrophe theory, we derived a cusp catastrophe model and corresponding inversion method to study mid-long-term landslide evolution. According to data of landslides, precipitation, and socioeconomic development from 1976 to 2008, the cusp catastrophe model describing this landslide evolution across a low-latitude highland area in China is obtained with the least squares method. Results of the model indicate that human activity determines landslide intensity. Local precipitation also impacts yearly landslide intensity to some extent, and controls the time when a strong and abrupt change in landslides occurs. During the period 1976-2008, there was an abrupt decrease of landslide intensity during 1994-1995, and an abrupt increase during 1995-1996. Since then, there have been frequent landslides in the low-latitude highland, with greater intensity. All these factors provide a scientific basis for formulating a contingency plan regarding landslide disasters.

The inherent catastrophic traps in retrograde CTO PCI.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Eugene B; Tsuchikane, Etsuo

2018-05-01

When we learn to drive, our driving instructor tells us how to check the side mirror and turn your head to check the blind spot before changing lanes. He tells us how to stop at stop signs, how to drive in slippery conditions, the safe stopping distances, and these all make our driving safe. Similarly, when we learn PCI, our mentors teach us to seat the guiding catheter co-axially, to wire the vessel safely, to deliver balloon and stents over the wire, to watch the pressure of the guiding, in order that we perform PCI safely and evade complications. In retrograde CTO PCI, there is no such published teaching. Also many individual mentors have not had the wide experience to see all the possible complications of retrograde CTO PCI and, therefore, may not be able to warn their apprentice. As the number of retrograde procedures increase worldwide, there is a corresponding increase in catastrophic complications, many of which, we as experts, can see are easily avoidable. To breach this gap in knowledge, this article describes 12 commonly met inherent traps in retrograde CTO PCI. They are inherent because by arranging our equipment in the manner to perform retrograde CTO PCI, these complications are either induced directly or happen easily. We hope this work will enhance safety of retrograde CTO PCI and avoid many catastrophic complications for our readers and operators. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Structural Health Monitoring with Fiber Bragg Grating and Piezo Arrays

Science.gov (United States)

Black, Richard J.; Faridian, Ferey; Moslehi, Behzad; Sotoudeh, Vahid

2012-01-01

Structural health monitoring (SHM) is one of the most important tools available for the maintenance, safety, and integrity of aerospace structural systems. Lightweight, electromagnetic-interference- immune, fiber-optic sensor-based SHM will play an increasing role in more secure air transportation systems. Manufacturers and maintenance personnel have pressing needs for significantly improving safety and reliability while providing for lower inspection and maintenance costs. Undetected or untreated damage may grow and lead to catastrophic structural failure. Damage can originate from the strain/stress history of the material, imperfections of domain boundaries in metals, delamination in multi-layer materials, or the impact of machine tools in the manufacturing process. Damage can likewise develop during service life from wear and tear, or under extraordinary circumstances such as with unusual forces, temperature cycling, or impact of flying objects. Monitoring and early detection are key to preventing a catastrophic failure of structures, especially when these are expected to perform near their limit conditions.

Interrelation of structure and operational states in cascading failure of overloading lines in power grids

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Xue, Fei; Bompard, Ettore; Huang, Tao; Jiang, Lin; Lu, Shaofeng; Zhu, Huaiying

2017-09-01

As the modern power system is expected to develop to a more intelligent and efficient version, i.e. the smart grid, or to be the central backbone of energy internet for free energy interactions, security concerns related to cascading failures have been raised with consideration of catastrophic results. The researches of topological analysis based on complex networks have made great contributions in revealing structural vulnerabilities of power grids including cascading failure analysis. However, existing literature with inappropriate assumptions in modeling still cannot distinguish the effects between the structure and operational state to give meaningful guidance for system operation. This paper is to reveal the interrelation between network structure and operational states in cascading failure and give quantitative evaluation by integrating both perspectives. For structure analysis, cascading paths will be identified by extended betweenness and quantitatively described by cascading drop and cascading gradient. Furthermore, the operational state for cascading paths will be described by loading level. Then, the risk of cascading failure along a specific cascading path can be quantitatively evaluated considering these two factors. The maximum cascading gradient of all possible cascading paths can be used as an overall metric to evaluate the entire power grid for its features related to cascading failure. The proposed method is tested and verified on IEEE30-bus system and IEEE118-bus system, simulation evidences presented in this paper suggests that the proposed model can identify the structural causes for cascading failure and is promising to give meaningful guidance for the protection of system operation in the future.

Do romantic partners' responses to entry dyspareunia affect women's experience of pain? The roles of catastrophizing and self-efficacy.

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Lemieux, Ashley J; Bergeron, Sophie; Steben, Marc; Lambert, Bernard

2013-09-01

Entry dyspareunia is a sexual health concern which affects about 21% of women in the general population. Characterized by pain provoked during vaginal penetration, introital dyspareunia has been shown by controlled studies to have a negative impact on the psychological well-being, sexual function, sexual satisfaction, and quality of life of afflicted women. Many cognitive and affective variables may influence the experience of pain and associated psychosexual problems. However, the role of the partner's cognitive responses has been studied very little. The aim of the present study was to examine the associations between partners' catastrophizing and their perceptions of women's self-efficacy at managing pain on one side and women's pain intensity, sexual function, and sexual satisfaction on the other. One hundred seventy-nine heterosexual couples (mean age for women = 31, SD = 10.0; mean age for men = 33, SD = 10.6) in which the woman suffered from entry dyspareunia participated in the study. Both partners completed quantitative measures. Women completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and the Painful Intercourse Self-Efficacy Scale. Men completed the significant-other versions of these measures. Dependent measures were women's responses to (i) the Pain Numeric Visual Analog Scale; (ii) the Female Sexual Function Index; and (iii) the Global Measure of Sexual Satisfaction scale. Controlled for women's pain catastrophizing and self-efficacy, results indicate that higher levels of partner-perceived self-efficacy and lower levels of partner catastrophizing are associated with decreased pain intensity in women with entry dyspareunia, although only partner catastrophizing contributed unique variance. Partner-perceived self-efficacy and catastrophizing were not significantly associated with sexual function or satisfaction in women. The findings suggest that partners' cognitive responses may influence the experience of entry dyspareunia for women, pointing

Investigation of Effectiveness of Some Vibration-Based Techniques in Early Detection of Real-Time Fatigue Failure in Gears

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Hasan Ozturk

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Bending fatigue crack is a dangerous and insidious mode of failure in gears. As it produces no debris in its early stages, it gives little warning during its progression, and usually results in either immediate loss of serviceability or greatly reduced power transmitting capacity. This paper presents the applications of vibration-based techniques (i.e. conventional time and frequency domain analysis, cepstrum, and continuous wavelet transform to real gear vibrations in the early detection, diagnosis and advancement monitoring of a real tooth fatigue crack and compares their detection and diagnostic capabilities on the basis of experimental results. Gear fatigue damage is achieved under heavy-loading conditions and the gearbox is allowed to run until the gears suffer badly from complete tooth breakage. It has been found that the initiation and progression of fatigue crack cannot be easily detected by conventional time and frequency domain approaches until the fault is significantly developed. On the contrary, the wavelet transform is quite sensitive to any change in gear vibration and reveals fault features earlier than other methods considered.

Primary testicular failure in Klinefelter's syndrome

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aksglaede, Lise; Andersson, Anna-Maria; Jørgensen, Niels

2007-01-01

The diagnosis of androgen deficiency is based on clinical features and confirmatory low serum testosterone levels. In early primary testicular failure, a rise in serum LH levels suggests inadequate androgen action for the individual's physiological requirements despite a serum testosterone level...

Surfeit. Philosophies of Jürgen Habermas and Jean Baudrillard against the background of St. I. Witkiewicz’s neohumanistic catastrophism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agnieszka Smrokowska-Reichmann

2015-03-01