WorldWideScience

Sample records for early catastrophic failure

  1. Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengwang Hao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε0 exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of −1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

  2. Fold catastrophe model of dynamic pillar failure in asymmetric mining

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yue Pan; Ai-wu Li; Yun-song Qi [Qingdao Technological University, Qingdao (China). College of Civil Engineering

    2009-01-15

    A rock burst disaster not only destroys the pit facilities and results in economic loss but it also threatens the life of the miners. Pillar rock burst has a higher frequency of occurrence in the pit compared to other kinds of rock burst. Understanding the cause, magnitude and prevention of pillar rock burst is a significant undertaking. Equations describing the bending moment and displacement of the rock beam in asymmetric mining have been deduced for simplified asymmetric beam-pillar systems. Using the symbolic operation software MAPLE 9.5 a catastrophe model of the dynamic failure of an asymmetric rock-beam pillar system has been established. The differential form of the total potential function deduced from the law of conservation of energy was used for this deduction. The critical conditions and the initial and final positions of the pillar during failure have been given in analytical form. The amount of elastic energy released by the rock beam at the instant of failure is determined as well. A diagrammatic form showing the pillar failure was plotted using MATLAB software. This graph contains a wealth of information and is important for understanding the behavior during each deformation phase of the rock-beam pillar system. The graphic also aids in distinguishing the equivalent stiffness of the rock beam in different directions. 11 refs., 8 figs.

  3. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weir, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  4. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneviève Chaput

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

  5. Correlated network of networks enhances robustness against catastrophic failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Byungjoon; Zheng, Muhua

    2018-01-01

    Networks in nature rarely function in isolation but instead interact with one another with a form of a network of networks (NoN). A network of networks with interdependency between distinct networks contains instability of abrupt collapse related to the global rule of activation. As a remedy of the collapse instability, here we investigate a model of correlated NoN. We find that the collapse instability can be removed when hubs provide the majority of interconnections and interconnections are convergent between hubs. Thus, our study identifies a stable structure of correlated NoN against catastrophic failures. Our result further suggests a plausible way to enhance network robustness by manipulating connection patterns, along with other methods such as controlling the state of node based on a local rule.

  6. Multiorgan failure and antiphospholipid antibodies: the catastrophic antiphospholipid (Asherson's) syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asherson, Ronald A

    2005-01-01

    A review of 250 patients with the catastrophic antiphospholipid (Asherson's) syndrome (CAPS) taken from the web site organized by the Europhospholipid Group (http://www.med.ub.es/MIMMUN/FORUM/CAPS.HTM) is presented in this paper. A short historical overview of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is followed by a description of the "triggering" factors, associated autoimmune diseases, clinical presentation, presumed pathogenesis, prognosis, mode of death and suggested therapies. Triggering factors are present in approximately 50% of patients and consist predominantly of infections, trauma, including minor surgical procedures such as biopsies, obstetric-related multiorgan failure and malignancy-associated CAPS. The patients present mainly with multiorgan failure resulting from predominantly small vessel occlusions affecting mainly intra-abdominal organs such as bowel, liver, pancreas, and adrenals, although large vessel occlusions do occur and comprise mainly deep vein thromboses (DVT) of the veins of the lower limbs and arterial occlusions causing strokes and peripheral gangrene. They do not however dominate the clinical picture. The condition differs considerably from the simple/classic APS in several respects, viz. the rapid development of multiorgan failure following the above-mentioned identifiable precipitating factors, the involvement of unusual organs such as bowel, reproductive organs, and bone marrow, complicating features of disseminated intravascular coagulation in 20% of cases, the acute (adult) respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in one third of patients, and severe thrombocytopenia; these not being encountered in the simple/classic APS. Treatment consisting of regular and repeated plasma exchanges using fresh frozen plasma, and IV immunoglobulins in addition to parenteral steroids and anticoagulation are necessary to improve the survival in a condition where the mortality is still of the order of 50%. Treatment may have to be continued for several

  7. Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

    2013-01-01

    Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single-event ove......Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single...

  8. Overview of catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes in power electronic circuits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

    2013-01-01

    Emerging applications (e.g. electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, more electric aircrafts, etc.) have brought more stringent reliability constrains into power electronic products because of safety requirements and maintenance cost issues. To improve the reliability of power electronics......, better understanding of failure modes and failure mechanisms of reliability–critical components in power electronic circuits are needed. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT failures, while the study on the failures of freewheeling diodes is less impressive. It is of importance...... to investigate the catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes as they could induce the malfunction of other components and eventually the whole power electronic circuits. This paper presents an overview of those catastrophic failures and gives examples of the corresponding consequences to the circuits....

  9. Balancing burn-in and mission times in environments with catastrophic and repairable failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bebbington, Mark; Lai, C.-D.; Zitikis, Ricardas

    2009-01-01

    In a system subject to both repairable and catastrophic (i.e., nonrepairable) failures, 'mission success' can be defined as operating for a specified time without a catastrophic failure. We examine the effect of a burn-in process of duration τ on the mission time x, and also on the probability of mission success, by introducing several functions and surfaces on the (τ,x)-plane whose extrema represent suitable choices for the best burn-in time, and the best burn-in time for a desired mission time. The corresponding curvature functions and surfaces provide information about probabilities and expectations related to these burn-in and mission times. Theoretical considerations are illustrated with both parametric and, separating the failures by failure mode, nonparametric analyses of a data set, and graphical visualization of results.

  10. Hemorrhagic Stroke Associated with Pulmonary Edema and Catastrophic Cardiac Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiun-Chang Lee

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Cerebral arteriovenous fistula (AVF is a vascular malformation that is rare in the pediatric population. Older children with cerebral AVF tend to present with neurologic problems related to intracranial venous hypertension or intracranial hemorrhage. Cardiac and pulmonary complications following acute neurologic injury such as subarachnoid hemorrhage are common in adults, but are rarely reported in children. However, complications have been reported in cases of enterovirus 71 rhombencephalitis in infants and children and can cause high morbidity and mortality. Here, we report a 14-year-old boy who presented with cardiac failure associated with pulmonary edema following cerebral hemorrhagic stroke due to AVF. After aggressive investigation and management, we intervened before significant hypoxia and hypotension developed, potentially reducing the risk of long-term adverse neurologic consequences in this patient.

  11. Berm design to reduce risks of catastrophic slope failures at solid waste disposal sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Stefano, Matteo; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Clemmer, Ryan; Jahanfar, M Ali

    2016-11-01

    Existing waste disposal sites are being strained by exceeding their volumetric capacities because of exponentially increasing rates of municipal solid waste generation worldwide, especially in densely populated metropolises. Over the past 40 years, six well-documented and analyzed disposal sites experienced catastrophic failure. This research presents a novel analysis and design method for implementation of a series of in-situ earth berms to slow down the movement of waste material flow following a catastrophic failure. This is the first study of its kind that employs a dynamic landslide analysis model, DAN-W, and the Voellmy rheological model to approximate solid waste avalanche flow. A variety of single and multiple berm configuration scenarios were developed and tested to find an optimum configuration of the various earth berm geometries and number of berms to achieve desired energy dissipation and reduction in total waste material runout length. The case study application of the novel mitigation measure shows that by constructing a series of six relatively inexpensive 3 m high earth berms at an optimum distance of 250 m from the slope toe, the total runout length of 1000 m and associated fatalities of the Leuwigajah dumpsite catastrophic failure in Bandung, Indonesia, could have been reduced by half. © The Author(s) 2016.

  12. A hazard and risk classification system for catastrophic rock slope failures in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermanns, R.; Oppikofer, T.; Anda, E.; Blikra, L. H.; Böhme, M.; Bunkholt, H.; Dahle, H.; Devoli, G.; Eikenæs, O.; Fischer, L.; Harbitz, C. B.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Loew, S.; Yugsi Molina, F. X.

    2012-04-01

    The Geological Survey of Norway carries out systematic geologic mapping of potentially unstable rock slopes in Norway that can cause a catastrophic failure. As catastrophic failure we describe failures that involve substantial fragmentation of the rock mass during run-out and that impact an area larger than that of a rock fall (shadow angle of ca. 28-32° for rock falls). This includes therefore rock slope failures that lead to secondary effects, such as a displacement wave when impacting a water body or damming of a narrow valley. Our systematic mapping revealed more than 280 rock slopes with significant postglacial deformation, which might represent localities of large future rock slope failures. This large number necessitates prioritization of follow-up activities, such as more detailed investigations, periodic monitoring and permanent monitoring and early-warning. In the past hazard and risk were assessed qualitatively for some sites, however, in order to compare sites so that political and financial decisions can be taken, it was necessary to develop a quantitative hazard and risk classification system. A preliminary classification system was presented and discussed with an expert group of Norwegian and international experts and afterwards adapted following their recommendations. This contribution presents the concept of this final hazard and risk classification that should be used in Norway in the upcoming years. Historical experience and possible future rockslide scenarios in Norway indicate that hazard assessment of large rock slope failures must be scenario-based, because intensity of deformation and present displacement rates, as well as the geological structures activated by the sliding rock mass can vary significantly on a given slope. In addition, for each scenario the run-out of the rock mass has to be evaluated. This includes the secondary effects such as generation of displacement waves or landslide damming of valleys with the potential of later

  13. Multi objective multi refinery optimization with environmental and catastrophic failure effects objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khogeer, Ahmed Sirag

    2005-11-01

    Petroleum refining is a capital-intensive business. With stringent environmental regulations on the processing industry and declining refining margins, political instability, increased risk of war and terrorist attacks in which refineries and fuel transportation grids may be targeted, higher pressures are exerted on refiners to optimize performance and find the best combination of feed and processes to produce salable products that meet stricter product specifications, while at the same time meeting refinery supply commitments and of course making profit. This is done through multi objective optimization. For corporate refining companies and at the national level, Intea-Refinery and Inter-Refinery optimization is the second step in optimizing the operation of the whole refining chain as a single system. Most refinery-wide optimization methods do not cover multiple objectives such as minimizing environmental impact, avoiding catastrophic failures, or enhancing product spec upgrade effects. This work starts by carrying out a refinery-wide, single objective optimization, and then moves to multi objective-single refinery optimization. The last step is multi objective-multi refinery optimization, the objectives of which are analysis of the effects of economic, environmental, product spec, strategic, and catastrophic failure. Simulation runs were carried out using both MATLAB and ASPEN PIMS utilizing nonlinear techniques to solve the optimization problem. The results addressed the need to debottleneck some refineries or transportation media in order to meet the demand for essential products under partial or total failure scenarios. They also addressed how importing some high spec products can help recover some of the losses and what is needed in order to accomplish this. In addition, the results showed nonlinear relations among local and global objectives for some refineries. The results demonstrate that refineries can have a local multi objective optimum that does not

  14. Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernández, A; Fort, H

    2009-01-01

    Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

  15. Intelligent on-line fault tolerant control for unanticipated catastrophic failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Gary G; Ho, Liang-Wei

    2004-10-01

    As dynamic systems become increasingly complex, experience rapidly changing environments, and encounter a greater variety of unexpected component failures, solving the control problems of such systems is a grand challenge for control engineers. Traditional control design techniques are not adequate to cope with these systems, which may suffer from unanticipated dynamic failures. In this research work, we investigate the on-line fault tolerant control problem and propose an intelligent on-line control strategy to handle the desired trajectories tracking problem for systems suffering from various unanticipated catastrophic faults. Through theoretical analysis, the sufficient condition of system stability has been derived and two different on-line control laws have been developed. The approach of the proposed intelligent control strategy is to continuously monitor the system performance and identify what the system's current state is by using a fault detection method based upon our best knowledge of the nominal system and nominal controller. Once a fault is detected, the proposed intelligent controller will adjust its control signal to compensate for the unknown system failure dynamics by using an artificial neural network as an on-line estimator to approximate the unexpected and unknown failure dynamics. The first control law is derived directly from the Lyapunov stability theory, while the second control law is derived based upon the discrete-time sliding mode control technique. Both control laws have been implemented in a variety of failure scenarios to validate the proposed intelligent control scheme. The simulation results, including a three-tank benchmark problem, comply with theoretical analysis and demonstrate a significant improvement in trajectory following performance based upon the proposed intelligent control strategy.

  16. Analytical and computational methodology to assess the over pressures generated by a potential catastrophic failure of a cryogenic pressure vessel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zamora, I.; Fradera, J.; Jaskiewicz, F.; Lopez, D.; Hermosa, B.; Aleman, A.; Izquierdo, J.; Buskop, J.

    2014-07-01

    Idom has participated in the risk evaluation of Safety Important Class (SIC) structures due to over pressures generated by a catastrophic failure of a cryogenic pressure vessel at ITER plant site. The evaluation implements both analytical and computational methodologies achieving consistent and robust results. (Author)

  17. Analytical and computational methodology to assess the over pressures generated by a potential catastrophic failure of a cryogenic pressure vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamora, I.; Fradera, J.; Jaskiewicz, F.; Lopez, D.; Hermosa, B.; Aleman, A.; Izquierdo, J.; Buskop, J.

    2014-01-01

    Idom has participated in the risk evaluation of Safety Important Class (SIC) structures due to over pressures generated by a catastrophic failure of a cryogenic pressure vessel at ITER plant site. The evaluation implements both analytical and computational methodologies achieving consistent and robust results. (Author)

  18. Extreme events and predictability of catastrophic failure in composite materials and in the Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Main, I.; Naylor, M.

    2012-05-01

    Despite all attempts to isolate and predict extreme earthquakes, these nearly always occur without obvious warning in real time: fully deterministic earthquake prediction is very much a `black swan'. On the other hand engineering-scale samples of rocks and other composite materials often show clear precursors to dynamic failure under controlled conditions in the laboratory, and successful evacuations have occurred before several volcanic eruptions. This may be because extreme earthquakes are not statistically special, being an emergent property of the process of dynamic rupture. Nevertheless, probabilistic forecasting of event rate above a given size, based on the tendency of earthquakes to cluster in space and time, can have significant skill compared to say random failure, even in real-time mode. We address several questions in this debate, using examples from the Earth (earthquakes, volcanoes) and the laboratory, including the following. How can we identify `characteristic' events, i.e. beyond the power law, in model selection (do dragon-kings exist)? How do we discriminate quantitatively between stationary and non-stationary hazard models (is a dragon likely to come soon)? Does the system size (the size of the dragon's domain) matter? Are there localising signals of imminent catastrophic failure we may not be able to access (is the dragon effectively invisible on approach)? We focus on the effect of sampling effects and statistical uncertainty in the identification of extreme events and their predictability, and highlight the strong influence of scaling in space and time as an outstanding issue to be addressed by quantitative studies, experimentation and models.

  19. Evaluation Aspects of Building Structures Reconstructed After a Failure or Catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krentowski, Janusz R.; Knyziak, Piotr

    2017-10-01

    The article presents the characteristics of several steel structures, among others modernized industrial dye house, school sports hall, truck repair workshop, that have been rebuilt after a disaster or a catastrophe. The structures were analyzed in detail, and the evaluation and reconstruction processes were described. The emergencies that occurred during exploitation of the buildings were the result of multiple mistakes: incorrectly defined intervals between inspections, errors during periodic inspections, incorrect repair work recommendations. The concepts of reinforcement work implemented by the authors, enabling the long-term future failure-free operation of the objects, were presented. Recommendations for monitoring of the facilities, applied after reinforcement or reconstruction, have been formulated. The methodology for the implementation of specialized investigations, such as geodetic, optical, geological, chemical strength tests, both destructive and non-destructive, has been defined. The need to determine the limit values of deformations, deflections, damage or other faults of structural elements and the entire rebuilt facilities, as well as defining conditions for objects’ withdrawal from operation in subsequent exceptional situations was indicated.

  20. The 27 May 1937 catastrophic flow failure of gold tailings at Tlalpujahua, Michoacan, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias, J. L.; Corona-Chavez, P.; Sanchez-Nunez, J. M.; Martinez-Medina, M.; Garduno-Monroy, V. H.; Capra, L.; Garcia-Tenorio, F.; Cisneros-Maximo, G.

    2015-05-01

    On 27 May 1937, after one week of sustained heavy rainfall, a voluminous flood caused the death of at least 300 people and the destruction of the historic El Carmen church and several neighborhoods in the mining region of Tlalpujahua, Michoacan, central Mexico. This destructive flood was triggered by the breaching of the impoundment of the Los Cedros tailings and the sudden release of circa 16 Mt of water-saturated waste materials. The muddy silty flood, moving at estimated speeds of 20-25 m s-1, was channelized along the Dos Estrellas and Tlalpujahua drainages and devastated everything along its flow path. After advancing 2.5 km downstream, the flood slammed into El Carmen church and surrounding houses at estimated speeds of ~ 7 m s-1, destroying many construction walls and covering the church floor with ~ 2 m of mud and debris. Revision of eyewitness accounts and newspaper articles, together with analysis of archived photographic materials, indicated that the flood consisted of three muddy pulses. Stratigraphic relations and granulometric data for selected proximal and distal samples show that the flood behaved as a hyperconcentrated flow along most of its trajectory. A total volume of the Lamas flood deposit was estimated as 1.5 x 106 m3. The physically based bidimensional (2-D) hydraulic model FLO-2D was implemented to reproduce the breached flow (0.5 sediment concentration) with a maximum flow discharge of 8000 m3 s-1 for a total outflow volume (sediment + water) of 2.5 x 106 m3, similar to the calculations obtained using field measurements. Even though premonitory signs of possible impoundment failure were reported days before the flood, and people living downstream were alerted, authorities ordered no evacuations or other mitigative actions. The catastrophic flood at Tlalpujahua provides a well-documented, though tragic, example of impoundment breaching of a tailings dam caused by the combined effects of intense rainfall, dam weakness, and inadequate

  1. Analysis of the reliability of quality assurance of welded nuclear pressure vessels with regard to catastrophic failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostberg, G [Lund Institute of Technology, Dept. of Materials Engineering (Sweden); Klingenstierna, B [FTL, Military Electronics Laboratory, National Defence Research Institute, Stockholm (Sweden); Sjoberg, L [Goteborg Univ., Dept. of Psychology (Sweden)

    1976-07-01

    The project is described as an analysis of the reliability of quality assurance of welded nuclear pressure vessels with regard to catastrophic failure. Its scope extends both beyond previous statistical evaluations of the risk of catastrophic failure, beyond previous studies of human malfunction, and beyond current studies of probabilistic fracture mechanics. The latter deal only with 'normal' data and 'normal' processes and procedures according to established rules and regulations, where as the present study concerns deficiencies or more or less complete fallacies of normal procedures and processes. Hopefully such events will prove to be rare enough to be characterized as 'unique'; this, in turn, means that the result of the investigation is not a new statistical figure but rather a survey of types and frequencies of errors and error-producing conditions. The emphasis is on the main pressure vessel; related information on the primary circuit is included, only when this can be done without excessive effort or costs. The avenues of approach in terms of technical-academic disciplines are reliability techniques and the psychology of analysis work and control processes.

  2. Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2017-12-01

    Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

  3. Significance of the actual nonlinear slope geometry for catastrophic failure in submarine landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puzrin, Alexander M; Gray, Thomas E; Hill, Andrew J

    2015-03-08

    A simple approach to slope stability analysis of naturally occurring, mild nonlinear slopes is proposed through extension of shear band propagation (SBP) theory. An initial weak zone appears in the steepest part of the slope where the combined action of gravity and seismic loads overcomes the degraded peak shear resistance of the soil. If the length of this steepest part is larger than the critical length, the shear band will propagate into the quasi-stable parts of the slope, where the gravitational and seismically induced shear stresses are smaller than the peak but larger than the residual shear strength of the soil. Growth of a shear band is strongly dependent on the shape of the slope, seismic parameters and the strength of soil and less dependent on the slope inclination and the sensitivity of clay. For the slope surface with faster changing inclination, the criterion is more sensitive to the changes of the parameters. Accounting for the actual nonlinear slope geometry eliminates the main challenge of the SBP approach-determination of the length of the initial weak zone, because the slope geometry can be readily obtained from submarine site investigations. It also helps to identify conditions for the early arrest of the shear band, before failure in the sliding layer or a change in loading or excess pore water pressures occurs. The difference in the size of a landslide predicted by limiting equilibrium and SBP approaches can reach orders of magnitude, potentially providing an explanation for the immense dimensions of many observed submarine landslides that may be caused by local factors acting over a limited portion of the slope.

  4. The Financial Benefits of Various Catastrophic Failure Prevention Strategies in a Wind Farm: Two market studies (UK-Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yürüşen, N. Y.; Tautz-Weinert, J.; Watson, S. J.; Melero, J. J.

    2017-11-01

    Operation of wind farms is driven by the overall aim of minimising costs while maximising energy sales. However, in certain circumstances investments are required to guarantee safe operation and survival of an asset. In this paper, we discuss the merits of various catastrophic failure prevention strategies in a Spanish wind farm. The wind farm operator was required to replace blades in two phases: temporary and final repair. We analyse the power performance of the turbine in the different states and investigate four scenarios with different timing of temporary and final repair during one year. The financial consequences of the scenarios are compared with a baseline by using a discounted cash flow analysis that considers the wholesale electricity market selling prices and interest rates. A comparison with the UK electricity market is conducted to highlight differences in the rate of return in the two countries.

  5. Replication Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo, Luis; Neelsen, Kai John; Lukas, Jiri

    2017-01-01

    Proliferating cells rely on the so-called DNA replication checkpoint to ensure orderly completion of genome duplication, and its malfunction may lead to catastrophic genome disruption, including unscheduled firing of replication origins, stalling and collapse of replication forks, massive DNA...... breakage, and, ultimately, cell death. Despite many years of intensive research into the molecular underpinnings of the eukaryotic replication checkpoint, the mechanisms underlying the dismal consequences of its failure remain enigmatic. A recent development offers a unifying model in which the replication...... checkpoint guards against global exhaustion of rate-limiting replication regulators. Here we discuss how such a mechanism can prevent catastrophic genome disruption and suggest how to harness this knowledge to advance therapeutic strategies to eliminate cancer cells that inherently proliferate under...

  6. Knowledge representation methods for early failure detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherer, K.P.; Stiller, P.

    1990-01-01

    To supervise technical processes like nuclear power plants, it is very important to detect failure modes in an early stage. In the nuclear research center at Karlsruhe an expert system is developed, embedded in a computer network of autonomous computers, which are used for intelligent prepocessing. Events, process data and actual parameter values are stored in slots of special frames in the knowledge base of the expert system. Both rule based and fact based knowledge representations are employed to generate cause consequence chains of failure states. By on-line surveillance of the reactor process, the slots of the frames are dynamically actualized. Immediately after the evaluation, the inference engine starts in the special domain experts (triggered by metarules from a manager) and detects the correspondend failures or anomaly state. Matching the members of the chain and regarding a catalogue of instructions and messages, what is to do by the operator, future failure states can be estimated and propagation can be prohibited. That means qualitative failure prediction based on cause consequence in the static part of the knowledge base. Also, a time series of physical data can be used to predict on analytical way future process state and to continue such a theoretical propagation with matching the cause consuquence chain

  7. Neural mechanisms underlying catastrophic failure in human-machine interaction during aerial navigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saproo, Sameer; Shih, Victor; Jangraw, David C.; Sajda, Paul

    2016-12-01

    Objective. We investigated the neural correlates of workload buildup in a fine visuomotor task called the boundary avoidance task (BAT). The BAT has been known to induce naturally occurring failures of human-machine coupling in high performance aircraft that can potentially lead to a crash—these failures are termed pilot induced oscillations (PIOs). Approach. We recorded EEG and pupillometry data from human subjects engaged in a flight BAT simulated within a virtual 3D environment. Main results. We find that workload buildup in a BAT can be successfully decoded from oscillatory features in the electroencephalogram (EEG). Information in delta, theta, alpha, beta, and gamma spectral bands of the EEG all contribute to successful decoding, however gamma band activity with a lateralized somatosensory topography has the highest contribution, while theta band activity with a fronto-central topography has the most robust contribution in terms of real-world usability. We show that the output of the spectral decoder can be used to predict PIO susceptibility. We also find that workload buildup in the task induces pupil dilation, the magnitude of which is significantly correlated with the magnitude of the decoded EEG signals. These results suggest that PIOs may result from the dysregulation of cortical networks such as the locus coeruleus (LC)—anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) circuit. Significance. Our findings may generalize to similar control failures in other cases of tight man-machine coupling where gains and latencies in the control system must be inferred and compensated for by the human operators. A closed-loop intervention using neurophysiological decoding of workload buildup that targets the LC-ACC circuit may positively impact operator performance in such situations.

  8. Early failure analysis of machining centers: a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yiqiang; Jia Yazhou; Jiang Weiwei

    2001-01-01

    To eliminate the early failures and improve the reliability, nine ex-factory machining centers are traced under field conditions in workshops. Their early failure information throughout the ex-factory run-in test is collected. The field early failure database is constructed based on the collection of field early failure data and the codification of data. Early failure mode and effects analysis is performed to indicate the weak subsystem of a machining center or the troublemaker. The distribution of the time between early failures is analyzed and the optimal ex-factory run-in test time for machining center that may expose sufficiently the early failures and cost minimum is discussed. Suggestions how to arrange ex-factory run-in test and how to take actions to reduce early failures for machining center is proposed

  9. Catastrophic failures due to environment-assisted cracking of metals: Case histories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipilov, S.A.

    1999-01-01

    One of the most serious problems in development of reliable equipment and structures in numerous major industries, namely a problem of the environment-assisted cracking of engineering materials, has been reviewed. This problem is directly related to the problems of maintenance of the safety and reliability of potentially dangerous engineering systems, such as nuclear power plants, fossil fuel power plants, oil and gas pipelines, field equipment, oil production platforms, aircraft and aerospace technologies, chemical plants, etc. At present, environment-assisted cracking, including stress corrosion cracking, corrosion fatigue, hydrogen-induced cracking, hydrogen embrittlement, sulfide stress cracking, irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking, and metal-induced embrittlement, has been a major cause of the premature failures of various components and equipment in these systems. (author)

  10. Editorial: Introduction to the Special Issue ;Slope Tectonics: Inherited Structures, Morphology of Deformation and Catastrophic Failure;

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermanns, R. L.; Oppikofer, T.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Clague, J. J.; Scarascia-Mugnozza, G.

    2017-07-01

    The "Conference on Slope Tectonics" has become an international scientific meeting point to present and discuss a variety of topics related to slope deformation and the deposits of related failures. The first conference took place on February 15-16, 2008 at University of Lausanne (Switzerland). It was followed by a second conference on September 6-10, 2011, in Austria (organized by the Geological Survey of Austria) and a third on September 8-12, 2014, in Norway (organized by the Geological Survey of Norway). The two later events included field trips. It has become a tradition that selected papers from these conference are published - papers from the first conference were published by the Geological Society as Special Publication 351 (Jaboyedoff, 2011), and those from the second conference were published in a special issue of Tectonophysics (Baron and Jaboyedoff, 2013). This special issue of Geomorphology is a collection of papers presented at the Norwegian Conference on Slope Tectonics. This collection of papers focuses on the role of tectonics in gravitationally induced rock-slope instabilities. The slopes either deform over long periods as deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (DSGSD) or more rapidly as rockslides or rock avalanches. The reconstruction of slope deformation is an integral part of the studies captured in this special issue.

  11. A geologic scenario for catastrophic failure of the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Repository, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McMackin, M.R.

    1993-01-01

    A plausible combination of geologic factors leading to failure can be hypothesized for the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Repository. The scenarios is constructed using elementary fault mechanics combined with geologic observations of exhumed faults and published information describing the repository site. The proposed repository site is located in the Basin and Range Province, a region of active crustal deformation demonstrated by widespread seismicity. The Yucca Mountain area has been characterized as tectonically quiet, which in the context of active crustal deformation may indicate the accumulation of the stresses approaching the levels required for fault slip, essentially stick-slip faulting. Simultaneously, dissolution of carbonate rocks in underlying karst aquifers is lowering the bulk strength of the rock that supports the repository site. Rising levels of hydrostatic stress concurrent with a climatically-driven rise in the water table could trigger faulting by decreasing the effective normal stress that currently retards fault slip. Water expelled from collapsing caverns in the underlying carbonate aquifer could migrate upward with sufficient pressure to open existing fractures or create new fractures by hydrofracturing. Water migrating through fractures could reach the repository in sufficient volume to react with heated rock and waste perhaps creating steam explosions that would further enhance fracture permeability. Closure of conduits in the underlying carbonate aquifer could lead to the elevation of the saturated zone above the level of the repository resulting in sustained saturation of radioactive waste in the repository and contamination of through-flowing groundwater

  12. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fort, H [Complex Systems Group, Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Mazzeo, N [Depto. de EcologIa, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Scheffer, M; Nes, E van, E-mail: hugo@fisica.edu.u [Wageningen Agricultural University, Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2010-09-01

    Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

  13. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fort, H; Mazzeo, N; Scheffer, M; Nes, E van

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

  14. The 27 May 1937 catastrophic flow failure of gold tailings at Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macías, J. L.; Corona-Chávez, P.; Sanchéz-Núñez, J. M.; Martínez-Medina, M.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.; García-Tenorio, F.; Cisneros-Máximo, G.

    2014-08-01

    On 27 May 1937, after one week of sustained heavy rainfall, a voluminous flood caused the death of at least 300 people and the destruction of the historic El Carmen church and several neighborhoods in the mining region of Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, central Mexico. This destructive flood was triggered by the breaching of the impoundment of the Los Cedros tailings and the sudden release of 16 Mt of water-saturated waste materials. The muddy silty flood, moving at estimated speeds of 20-25 m s-1, was channelized along the Dos Estrellas and Tlalpujahua drainages and devastated everything along its flow path. After advancing 2.5 km downstream, the flood slammed into El Carmen church and surrounding houses at estimated speeds of ~7 m s-1, destroying many of construction walls and covering the church floor with ~2 m of mud and debris. Eyewitness accounts and newspaper articles, together with analysis of archived photographic materials, indicated that the flood consisted of three muddy pulses. This interpretation is confirmed and extended by the results of our geological investigations during 2013 and 2014. Stratigraphic relations and granulometric data for selected proximal and distal samples show that the flood behaved as a hyperconcentrated flow along most of its trajectory. Even though premonitory signs of possible impoundment failure were reported days before the flood, and people living downstream were alerted, authorities ordered no evacuations or other mitigative actions. The catastrophic flood at Tlalpujahua provides a well-documented, though tragic, example of impoundment breaching of a tailings dam caused by the combined effects of intense rainfall, dam weakness, and inadequate emergency-management protocols - unfortunately an all too common case-scenario for most of the world's mining regions.

  15. Forensic Study of Early Failures with Unbonded Concrete Overlays

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-01

    A forensic investigation was conducted to identify failure mechanisms responsible for early failures of unbonded concrete overlays on selected projects in Ohio, including I-70 in Madison County, I-77 in Washington and Noble Counties, and I-90 in Lake...

  16. Direct catastrophic injury in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Barry P

    2005-11-01

    Catastrophic sports injuries are rare but tragic events. Direct (traumatic) catastrophic injury results from participating in the skills of a sport, such as a collision in football. Football is associated with the greatest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all major team sports in the United States. Pole vaulting, gymnastics, ice hockey, and football have the highest incidence of direct catastrophic injuries for sports in which males participate. In most sports, the rate of catastrophic injury is higher at the collegiate than at the high school level. Cheerleading is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all sports in which females participate. Indirect (nontraumatic) injury is caused by systemic failure as a result of exertion while participating in a sport. Cardiovascular conditions, heat illness, exertional hyponatremia, and dehydration can cause indirect catastrophic injury. Understanding the common mechanisms of injury and prevention strategies for direct catastrophic injuries is critical in caring for athletes.

  17. Early pregnancy failure management among family physicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Robin; Dehlendorf, Christine; Vittinghoff, Eric; Gold, Katherine J; Dalton, Vanessa K

    2013-03-01

    Family physicians, as primary care providers for reproductive-aged women, frequently initiate or refer patients for management of early pregnancy failure (EPF). Safe and effective options for EPF treatment include expectant management, medical management with misoprostol, and aspiration in the office or operating room. Current practice does not appear to reflect patient preferences or to utilize the most cost-effective treatments. We compared characteristics and practice patterns among family physicians who do and do not provide multiple options for EPF care. We performed a secondary analysis of a national survey of women's health providers to describe demographic and practice characteristics among family physicians who care for women with EPF. We used multivariate logistic regression to identify correlates of providing more than one option for EPF management. The majority of family physicians provide only one option for EPF; expectant management was most frequently used among our survey respondents. Misoprostol and office-based aspiration were rarely used. Providing more than one option for EPF management was associated with more years in practice, smaller county population, larger proportions of Medicaid patients, intrauterine contraception provision, and prior training in office-based aspiration. Family physicians are capable of providing a comprehensive range of options for EPF management in the outpatient setting but few providers currently do so. To create a more patient-centered and cost-effective model of care for EPF, additional resources should be directed at education, skills training, and system change initiatives to prepare family physicians to offer misoprostol and office-based aspiration to women with EPF.

  18. Seizing Catastrophes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2013-01-01

    to a distant past but takes place in the present. They use the term Nakba not only to refer to the catastrophe of 1948 but also to designate current catastrophes, such as the Danish Muhammad cartoons affair in 2005 and the Israeli invasion of Gaza in 2008. Through an analysis of the 60th commemoration...

  19. Smoking increases the risk of early meniscus repair failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwell, Ryan; Schmitt, Laura C; Flanigan, David C; Magnussen, Robert A

    2016-05-01

    The goal of this study is to determine whether patients who smoke cigarettes at the time of surgery are at significantly increased risk of early meniscus repair failure relative to non-smokers. Retrospective chart review identified 64 current smokers within a series of 444 consecutive patients who underwent meniscus repair during a 7 years period. Fifty-two of these 64 smokers were available for follow-up and were matched by age, sex, and ACL status with non-smokers from the same cohort. Records of these 104 patients with a total of 120 meniscus repairs were reviewed to identify meniscus repair failure (defined as repeat surgery on the index meniscus) during the median 13-month (range: 3-79 months) follow-up period. The smoking and non-smoking groups were similar in age, sex, ACL status, BMI, meniscus repair technique, and meniscus involved. Meniscus repair failure occurred in 19 of the 112 menisci in 104 patients, for an overall failure risk of 17 %. Of the 19 failures, 14 occurred in 79 repaired medial menisci (18 % failure risk) and 5 occurred in 33 repaired lateral menisci (15 % failure risk). Meniscus repair failure occurred in significantly more smokers (15 failures in 56 menisci in 52 patients -27 % failure risk) than non-smokers (4 failures in 56 menisci in 52 patients -7 % failure risk) (p = 0.0076). Smoking is associated with significantly increased risk of early meniscus repair failure as defined by the incidence of repeat surgery on the index meniscus. III.

  20. A catastrophic event in Lake Geneva region during the Early Bronze Age?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremer, Katrina; Yrro, Blé; Marillier, François; Hilbe, Michael; Corboud, Pierre; Rachoud-Schneider, Anne-Marie; Girardclos, Stéphanie

    2013-04-01

    Similarly to steep oceanic continental margins, lake slopes can collapse, producing large sublacustrine landslides and tsunamis. Lake sediments are excellent natural archives of such mass movements and their study allows the reconstructions of these prehistoric events, such as the 563 AD large tsunami over Lake Geneva (Kremer et al, 2012). In Lake Geneva, more than 100 km of high-resolution seismic reflection profiles reveal the late Holocene sedimentation history. The seismic record shows a succession of five large lens-shaped seismic units (A to I), characterized by transparent/chaotic seismic facies with irregular lower boundaries, and interpreted as mass-movement deposits. These units are interbedded with parallel, continuous and strong amplitude reflections, interpreted as the 'background' lake sediments. The oldest dated mass movement (Unit D) covers a surface of 22 km2 in the deep basin, near the city of Lausanne. This deposit has an estimated minimum volume of 0.18 km3 and thus was very likely tsunamigenic (Kremer et al, 2012). A 12-m-long sediment core confirms the seismic interpretation of the mass movement unit and shows that the uppermost 3 m of Unit D are characterized by deformed hemipelagic sediments topped by a 5 cm thick turbidite. This deposit can be classified as a slump whose scar can be interpreted in the seismic data and visualized by multibeam bathymetry. This slump of Lausanne was likely triggered by an earthquake but a spontaneous slope collapse cannot be excluded (Girardclos et al, 2007). Radiocarbon dating of plant macro-remains reveals that the unit D happened during Early Bronze Age. Three other mass wasting deposits occurred during the same time period and may have been triggered during the same event, either by a single earthquake or by a tsunami generated by the slump of Lausanne. Although the exact trigger mechanism of the all these mass-wasting deposits remains unknown, a tsunami likely generated by this event may have affected the

  1. Climate catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budyko, Mikhail

    1999-05-01

    Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

  2. Early management of mesenteric cyst prevents catastrophes: A single centre analysis of 17 cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prakash Advait

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Mesenteric cysts are rare intra-abdominal masses in the paediatric age group with varied presentation, ranging from an asymptomatic mass to acute abdomen. This study reviews our experience in the diagnosis and treatment of 17 mesenteric cysts in our centre, with especial reference to acute abdominal symptoms. Patients and Methods: Seventeen patients (age less than 10 years with mesenteric cysts were managed in our hospital. The age ranged from 15 days to 10 years. Patients were admitted with acute or chronic symptoms. They were evaluated with complete history, clinical examination, blood investigations and radiological investigations (x-ray abdomen erect, ultrasound abdomen (USG and computed tomography (CT scan in selected cases to reach a provisional diagnosis. The diagnosis was proven on laparotomy and histologically confirmed. Results: The main presenting symptoms were abdominal pain or lump. The most common mode of presentation was acute small intestinal obstruction. USG was not conclusive in all. Abdominal CT scan with intravenous contrast was diagnostic in nine patients. Five patients had volvulus on exploration. Cysts were located in small intestinal mesentery in 14 cases and three were in the sigmoid mesentery. Seven patients had complete excision, intestinal resection was required in four and marsupialisation with cauterisation of margins was done in six patients. Histologically, all were lymphangiomatous mesenteric cysts. Conclusion: The diagnosis of mesenteric cysts should be kept in mind in any patient presenting with acute abdominal symptoms. Small bowel volvulus with mesenteric cyst constituted a significant number in children with acute abdominal symptoms. Early diagnosis and treatment yields excellent outcome.

  3. On sociological catastrophe analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clausen, L.

    1974-01-01

    The present paper deals with standard terms of sociological catastrophe theory hitherto existing, collective behaviour during the catastrophe, and consequences for the empiric catastrophe sociology. (RW) [de

  4. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  5. Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

    1996-12-31

    The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

  6. Cosmic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, J. Craig

    2014-08-01

    Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

  7. Tropical mathematics and the financial catastrophe of the 17th century. Thermoeconomics of Russia in the early 20th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslov, V. P.

    2010-03-01

    In the paper, an example is presented concerning relationships (which cannot be neglected) between mathematics and other sciences. In particular, the relationship between the tropical mathematics and the humanitarian-economic catastrophe of 17th century (related to slavery of Africans) is considered. The notion of critical state of economy of the 19th century is introduced by using the refined Fisher equation. A correspondence principle for thermodynamics of fluids and economics of the 19th century is presented.

  8. Reverse Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Czapliński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

  9. Catastrophes control problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velichenko, V.V.

    1994-01-01

    The problem of catastrophe control is discussed. Catastrophe control aims to withdraw responsible engineering constructions out of the catastrophe. The mathematical framework of catastrophes control systems is constructed. It determines the principles of systems filling by the concrete physical contents and, simultaneously, permits to employ modern control methods for the synthesis of optimal withdrawal strategy for protected objects

  10. [Heart failure as early manifestation of neonatal hyperthyroidism. Case report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarado S, Jorge Luis; Fernández V, Zhirly Andrea

    2014-04-01

    Neonatal hyperthyroidism is usually a self-limited condition frequently associated with transplacental passage of thyroid stimulating antibodies secondary to maternal autoimmune disorders. To timely detect mothers with this medical antecedents decreases the risk for fetal adverse events. To report a case of neonatal hyperthyroidism associated with intrauterine growth restriction and heart failure. A 36 week-old newborn with birth weight of 1,240 g. Symptoms were tachycardia, distal coldness, exophthalmos, hepatomegaly and tremors. Echocardiogram ruled out structural heart disorders. Due to maternal symptoms suggestive of hyperthyroidism, TSH tests were performed showing 0.01 ulU/ml, free T4 7.7 ng/dl, so the diagnosis of neonatal hyperthyroidism was confirmed. It was treated with methimazole and propanol, alleviating the symptoms and decreasing the levels of free T4. To know the maternal history helps identify and manage neonatal complications of hyperthyroidism. Heart failure and other cardiopulmonary disorders are determinants of mortality during early neonatal period. High-risk newborns should receive follow up assessments.

  11. The public health challenge of early growth failure in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, M F; Martorell, R

    2013-05-01

    Recent recognition of the early onset and high prevalence of wasting (30%) and stunting (20%) among infants 0-5 months in India draws attention to the need to understand the causes and develop prevention strategies. Such growth failure has dire consequences in the short (increased mortality) and long-term (loss of human capital and increased risk of chronic diseases). Food interventions before 6 months will increase morbidity/mortality through contamination in settings of poor sanitation and hygiene. Waiting to improve nutrition only after the initiation of complementary feeding at 6 months is a missed opportunity and may permanently alter life trajectory and potential. This underscores the importance of maternal nutrition. Iron and folic acid and protein energy supplementation during pregnancy are interventions that can improve maternal nutrition and birth outcomes. Maternal supplementation during lactation should be considered as a means to improve maternal and child outcomes, although the evidence needs strengthening. Support and counseling are also required to improve maternal diets and promote exclusive breastfeeding. Programs focused on improving maternal nutrition across the continuum of preconception, pregnancy and lactation are likely to have the greatest impact as mothers are central gatekeepers to the health and future of their children.

  12. Failure Prediction for Autonomous Driving

    OpenAIRE

    Hecker, Simon; Dai, Dengxin; Van Gool, Luc

    2018-01-01

    The primary focus of autonomous driving research is to improve driving accuracy. While great progress has been made, state-of-the-art algorithms still fail at times. Such failures may have catastrophic consequences. It therefore is important that automated cars foresee problems ahead as early as possible. This is also of paramount importance if the driver will be asked to take over. We conjecture that failures do not occur randomly. For instance, driving models may fail more likely at places ...

  13. Trunnion Corrosion and Early Failure in Monolithic Metal-on-Polyethylene TMZF Femoral Components: A Case Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Walker

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We describe four patients who were treated with primary total hip arthroplasty (THA at two tertiary academic Australian teaching hospitals that experienced premature failure of head-neck trunnions through dissociation of the head-neck taper junction. This retrospective case series have similar clinical presentations and macroscopic pathology with severe head-neck taper junction loss of material, corrosion and early catastrophic failure. It is proposed that the accelerated wear is related to use of varus offset neck in a proprietary beta titanium alloy (Ti-12Mo-6Zr-2Fe  or TMZFÒ Stryker Osteonics, Mahwah NJ, USA TMZF femoral stem, longer head-neck combination in a relatively active, older, male patient population. In this limited case series presentation was on average 80 months (range 53-92 following index procedure. In three of the four patients, a prodromal period of groin or buttock pain was reported for between 1 week and 2 months prior to acute presentation. Significant metallosis and local tissue damage including gluteal muscle insufficiency was evident. Each stem revised was well fixed. An extended trochanteric osteotomy was required in two of the four cases for stem extraction. We recommend caution and further evaluation on the relationship between TMZF metal alloy and its longevity in higher demand patients with high neck offset, varus stem geometry and large CoCr bearing heads.

  14. Predictive factors for early failure of transarterial embolization in blunt hepatic injury patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Y.-H.; Wu, C.-H.; Wang, L.-J.; Wong, Y.-C.; Chen, H.-W.; Wang, C.-J.; Lin, B.-C.; Hsu, Y.-P.

    2014-01-01

    Aim: To evaluate the early success of transarterial embolization (TAE) in patients with traumatic liver haemorrhage and to determine independent factors for its failure. Materials and methods: From January 2009 to December 2012, TAE was performed in 48 patients for traumatic liver haemorrhage. Their medical charts were reviewed for demographic information, pre-TAE vital signs and laboratory data, injury grade, type of contrast medium extravasation (CME) at CT, angiography findings, and early failure. “Early failure” was defined as the need for repeated TAE or a laparotomy for hepatic haemorrhage within 4 days after TAE. Variables were compared between the early success and early failure groups. Variables with univariate significance were also analysed using multivariate logistic regression for predictors of early failure. Results: Among 48 liver TAE cases, nine (18.8%) were early failures due to liver haemorrhage. Early failure was associated with injury grade (p = 0.039), major liver injury (grades 4 and 5; p = 0.007), multiple CMEs at angiography (p = 0.031), incomplete TAE (p = 0.002), and elevated heart rate (p = 0.026). Incomplete embolization (OR = 8; p = 0.042), and heart rate >110 beats/min (bpm; OR = 8; p = 0.05) were independent factors for early failure of TAE in the group with major liver injuries. Conclusion: Major hepatic injury is an important factor in early failure. Patients with a heart rate >110 bpm and incomplete embolization in the major injury group have an increased rate of early failure. The success rate of proximal TAE was comparable to that of the more time-consuming, superselective, distal TAE. - Highlights: • Early failure of TAE is associated with a higher grade of liver injury. • Incomplete embolization is more likely to suffer early failure of TAE. • A heart rate greater than 110 bpm is more likely to suffer early failure of TAE. • We recommend proximal embolization to prevent early failure of TAE

  15. Lower early postnatal oxygen saturation target and risk of ductus arteriosus closure failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inomata, Kei; Taniguchi, Shinji; Yonemoto, Hiroki; Inoue, Takeshi; Kawase, Akihiko; Kondo, Yuichi

    2016-11-01

    Early postnatal hyperoxia is a major risk factor for retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in extremely premature infants. To reduce the occurrence of ROP, we adopted a lower early postnatal oxygen saturation (SpO 2 ) target range (85-92%) from April 2011. Lower SpO 2 target range, however, may lead to hypoxemia and an increase in the risk of ductus arteriosus (DA) closure failure. The aim of this study was therefore to determine whether a lower SpO 2 target range, during the early postnatal stage, increases the risk of DA closure failure. Infants born at closure failure in period 2 (21%) was significantly higher than that in period 1 (1%). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, the lower oxygen saturation target range was an independent risk factor for DA closure failure. Lower early postnatal oxygen saturation target range increases the risk of DA closure failure. © 2016 Japan Pediatric Society.

  16. Early short-term management of control-actuator failures in a linear dynamic system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben-Haim, Y.

    1989-01-01

    Early short-term management of malfunction attempts to maintain system stability during the early development stages of a failure. This is achieved in two stages. First, the failure is partially diagnosed by comparing observed system behavior against the performance expected for each of the selected set of hypothesized malfunctions. Second, the normal controller is replaced by a compensatory controller whose aim is to maintain system stability while compensating for the failure. Malfunctions involving control actuators are studied here. The aim of this study is to develop a technique for choosing the set of hypothesized failures and compensatory controllers which assure that the state of the system remains within specified bounds for a given duration after initiation of failure, regardless of the precise temporal development of the failure

  17. Failure to Respond to Food Resource Decline Has Catastrophic Consequences for Koalas in a High-Density Population in Southern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desley A Whisson

    Full Text Available Understanding the ability of koalas to respond to changes in their environment is critical for conservation of the species and their habitat. We monitored the behavioural response of koalas to declining food resources in manna gum (Eucalyptus viminalis woodland at Cape Otway, Victoria, Australia, from September 2011 to November 2013. Over this period, koala population density increased from 10.1 to 18.4 koalas.ha-1. As a result of the high browsing pressure of this population, manna gum canopy condition declined with 71.4% manna gum being completely or highly defoliated in September 2013. Despite declining food resources, radio collared koalas (N = 30 exhibited high fidelity to small ranges (0.4-1.2 ha. When trees became severely defoliated in September 2013, koalas moved relatively short distances from their former ranges (mean predicted change in range centroid = 144 m and remained in areas of 0.9 to 1.0 ha. This was despite the high connectivity of most manna gum woodland, and close proximity of the study site (< 3 km to the contiguous mixed forest of the Great Otway National Park. Limited movement had catastrophic consequences for koalas with 71% (15/21 of radio collared koalas dying from starvation or being euthanased due to their poor condition between September and November 2013.

  18. Core Competencies and the Prevention of School Failure and Early School Leaving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Catherine P.; O'Brennan, Lindsey M.; McNeely, Clea A.

    2008-01-01

    There is an increasing awareness that school failure and early school leaving are processes, rather than discrete events, that often co-occur and can have lasting negative effects on children's development. Most of the literature has focused on risk factors for failure and dropout rather than on the promotion of competencies that can increase…

  19. Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinge LIU

    Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

  20. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2015-01-01

    as camps. Based on fieldwork among Palestinians in the Danish camps, this article explores why my interlocutors describe their current lives as a catastrophe. Al-Nakba literally means the catastrophe and, in Palestinian national discourse, it is used to designate the event of 1948, when the Palestinians...

  1. UAV Swarm Behavior Modeling for Early Exposure of Failure Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    have felt like an absentee husband and father, through the rigor and struggles of completing this thesis, they not only continuously provided support...to understand their specific 12 product , they must now have a firm understanding of how their product fits into a plethora of other systems...mission in Monterey Phoenix (MP) proved to provide valuable insight into identifying failure modes and failsafe behaviors. A product of this research

  2. Dielectric Spectroscopic Detection of Early Failures in 3-D Integrated Circuits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obeng, Yaw; Okoro, C A; Ahn, Jung-Joon; You, Lin; Kopanski, Joseph J

    The commercial introduction of three dimensional integrated circuits (3D-ICs) has been hindered by reliability challenges, such as stress related failures, resistivity changes, and unexplained early failures. In this paper, we discuss a new RF-based metrology, based on dielectric spectroscopy, for detecting and characterizing electrically active defects in fully integrated 3D devices. These defects are traceable to the chemistry of the insolation dielectrics used in the through silicon via (TSV) construction. We show that these defects may be responsible for some of the unexplained early reliability failures observed in TSV enabled 3D devices.

  3. Health Visitor's Role in Prediction of Early Childhood Injuries and Failure to Thrive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Janet G.; And Others

    1978-01-01

    Discusses the role of the health visitor in the prediction of early childhood injuries, abuse, and failure to thrive--based on a three-year study of the relationship between early maternal attitudes and subsequent child health. Journal availability: Pergamon Press Ltd., Headington Hill Hall, Oxford, OX3 OBW England. (DLS)

  4. Sheehan's Syndrome Presenting with Early Postpartum Congestive Heart Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu-Yi Wang

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available We report the case of a young woman with Sheehan's syndrome who presented with ventricular arrhythmia and congestive heart failure. The patient was admitted because of postpartum hemorrhage and hypovolemic shock; a massive blood transfusion was required to restore blood volume. After initial stabilization, the patient developed acute respiratory distress and congestive heart failure accompanied by hemodynamic instability 2 weeks after delivery. Episodes of ventricular tachycardia of the torsade de pointes type and a prolonged QT interval were noted on baseline electrocardiogram. A low cortisol level was found incidentally, which led to the suspicion of hypopituitarism. The diagnosis was later supported by laboratory findings of multiple pituitary hormone deficiencies. After administration of corticosteroids and thyroxine, the patient's clinical condition improved dramatically. A pituitary magnetic resonance imaging scan 32 days after delivery revealed a diminished and flattened pituitary gland with prominent intrasellar cerebrospinal fluid loculation, which was compatible with the clinical diagnosis of empty sella with panhypopituitarism. The syndrome of acute anterior pituitary necrosis secondary to postpartum hemorrhage and shock was first described by Sheehan in 1939. Although the occurrence of Sheehan's syndrome is now rare, it should still be considered in any woman with a history of peripartum hemorrhage who develops manifestations of pituitary hormone deficiency. Appropriate hormone replacement therapy is essential and always results in dramatic clinical improvement.

  5. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rawhya R. El-Shereef

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

  6. Catastrophe Theory and Caustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gravesen, Jens

    1983-01-01

    It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed....

  7. Clinical indicators for success of misoprostol treatment after early pregnancy failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robledo, C; Zhang, J; Troendle, J; Barnhart, K; Creinin, M D; Westhoff, C; Huang, X; Frederick, M

    2007-10-01

    To identify clinical indicators for success of misoprostol treatment after early pregnancy failure. A total of 473 women with early pregnancy failure received 800 microg of vaginal misoprostol on treatment day 1. At the follow-up visit on day 3, a second dose was given if expulsion was incomplete. On day 8, vacuum aspiration was offered if expulsion had not occurred. Ultrasonography was used as gold standard for success. A Classification and Regression Tree analysis was undertaken to derive two decision trees for the success of misoprostol treatment on study days 3 and 8. Heavy bleeding after the first dose and an open cervical os were identified as clinical indicators of treatment success on day 3. Treatment success occurred in 84% of women with either or both indicators. Reporting passage of tissue after a second misoprostol dose and old blood in the vagina were potential indicators of treatment success or failure on day 8. A woman with either of these indicators has a 65% chance of treatment success after the second dose. Conversely, a woman with neither indicator on day 8 has a 94% chance of treatment failure. Standard clinical findings may be useful as indicators for success or failure of medical management of early pregnancy failure in settings with limited or no access to ultrasonography. More research to identify even better indicators is warranted.

  8. Failure to thrive among neonates, associated factors and early neonatal outcome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Erica; Manji, Karim; Mpembeni Rose

    2005-01-01

    Failure to thrive or growth failure is an important feature of problems prevalent in the neonate. It remains one of the greatest challenges for the practicing pediatrician and it is a common pathway or outcome of several different underlaying infant and maternal conditions. To determine the prevalence, possible causes and early neonatal outcome of failure to thrive among young infants admitted to the Neonatal Unit in this hospital. A cross-sectional descriptive hospital based study, was carried for 10 months from April 2001 to January 2002 at the Neonatal Unit at Muhimbili National Hospital. (author)

  9. Establishment of a rat model of early-stage liver failure and Th17/Treg imbalance

    OpenAIRE

    LI Dong; LU Zhonghua; GAN Jianhe

    2016-01-01

    ObjectiveTo investigate the methods for establishing a rat model of early-stage liver failure and the changes in Th17, Treg, and Th17/Treg after dexamethasone and thymosin interventions. MethodsA total of 64 rats were randomly divided into carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) group and endotoxin [lipopolysaccharide (LPS)]/D-galactosamine (D-GalN) combination group to establish the rat model of early-stage liver failure. The activities of the rats and changes in liver function and whole blood Th17 and ...

  10. Phenomenological uncertainty analysis of early containment failure at severe accident of nuclear power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Su Won

    2011-02-15

    The severe accident has inherently significant uncertainty due to wide range of conditions and performing experiments, validation and practical application are extremely difficult because of its high temperature and pressure. Although internal and external researches were put into practice, the reference used in Korean nuclear plants were foreign data of 1980s and safety analysis as the probabilistic safety assessment has not applied the newest methodology. Also, it is applied to containment pressure formed into point value as results of thermal hydraulic analysis to identify the probability of containment failure in level 2 PSA. In this paper, the uncertainty analysis methods for phenomena of severe accident influencing early containment failure were developed, the uncertainty analysis that apply Korean nuclear plants using the MELCOR code was performed and it is a point of view to present the distribution of containment pressure as a result of uncertainty analysis. Because early containment failure is important factor of Large Early Release Frequency(LERF) that is used as representative criteria of decision-making in nuclear power plants, it was selected in this paper among various modes of containment failure. Important phenomena of early containment failure at severe accident based on previous researches were comprehended and methodology of 7th steps to evaluate uncertainty was developed. The MELCOR input for analysis of the severe accident reflected natural circulation flow was developed and the accident scenario for station black out that was representative initial event of early containment failure was determined. By reviewing the internal model and correlation for MELCOR model relevant important phenomena of early containment failure, the uncertainty factors which could affect on the uncertainty were founded and the major factors were finally identified through the sensitivity analysis. In order to determine total number of MELCOR calculations which can

  11. Infraclavicular versus axillary nerve catheters: A retrospective comparison of early catheter failure rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quast, Michaela B; Sviggum, Hans P; Hanson, Andrew C; Stoike, David E; Martin, David P; Niesen, Adam D

    2018-05-01

    Continuous brachial plexus catheters are often used to decrease pain following elbow surgery. This investigation aimed to assess the rate of early failure of infraclavicular (IC) and axillary (AX) nerve catheters following elbow surgery. Retrospective study. Postoperative recovery unit and inpatient hospital floor. 328 patients who received IC or AX nerve catheters and underwent elbow surgery were identified by retrospective query of our institution's database. Data collected included unplanned catheter dislodgement, catheter replacement rate, postoperative pain scores, and opioid administration on postoperative day 1. Catheter failure was defined as unplanned dislodging within 24 h of placement or requirement for catheter replacement and evaluated using a covariate adjusted model. 119 IC catheters and 209 AX catheters were evaluated. There were 8 (6.7%) failed IC catheters versus 13 (6.2%) failed AX catheters. After adjusting for age, BMI, and gender there was no difference in catheter failure rate between IC and AX nerve catheters (p = 0.449). These results suggest that IC and AX nerve catheters do not differ in the rate of early catheter failure, despite differences in anatomic location and catheter placement techniques. Both techniques provided effective postoperative analgesia with median pain scores < 3/10 for patients following elbow surgery. Reasons other than rate of early catheter failure should dictate which approach is performed. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Chronicity of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Deficiency, Part 2: Radiographic Predictors of Early Graft Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Yoshinari; Kita, Keisuke; Takao, Rikio; Amano, Hiroshi; Uchida, Ryohei; Shiozaki, Yoshiki; Yonetani, Yasukazu; Kinugasa, Kazutaka; Mae, Tatsuo; Horibe, Shuji

    2018-02-01

    Accumulating evidence suggests that long-term anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) deficiency can give rise to an abnormal tibiofemoral relationship and subsequent intra-articular lesions. However, the effects of chronic ACL deficiency (ACLD) on early graft failure after anatomic reconstruction remain unclear. We hypothesized that patients with long-term ACLD lasting more than 5 years would have a greater rate of early graft failure due to insufficient intraoperative reduction of the tibia and that the preoperative and immediately postoperative abnormal tibiofemoral relationship in the sagittal plane, such as anterior tibial subluxation (ATS), would correlate with the graft status on postoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. A total of 358 patients who had undergone anatomic ACL reconstruction with hamstring grafts were divided into 5 groups based on chronicity of ACLD: (1) 0 to 6 months, (2) 6 months to 1 year, (3) 1 to 2 years, (4) 2 to 5 years, and (5) longer than 5 years. Preoperatively and immediately postoperatively, lateral radiographs in full extension were taken in all patients to evaluate the tibiofemoral relationship, specifically with regard to ATS, space for the ACL (sACL), and extension angle. All patients underwent MRI at 6 months to reveal graft status. Groups with a high rate of graft failure were further analyzed to compare demographic and radiographic factors between the intact and failure subgroups, followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify predisposing factors. Graft failure without trauma was observed in 4 (1.8%), 0 (0%), 1 (3.7%), 3 (9.7%), and 8 patients (17.7%) in groups 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. Of the 76 patients in groups 4 and 5, significant differences were noted between the failure and intact subgroups in preoperative ATS (4.9 vs 2.4 mm, respectively; P failure (odds ratio, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.37-7.46). Early graft failure at 6 months increased in patients with ACLD

  13. Early Treatment Outcome in Failure to Thrive: Predictions from a Transactional Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drotar, Dennis

    Children diagnosed with environmentally based failure to thrive early during their first year of life were seen at 12 and 18 months for assessment of psychological development (cognition, language, symbolic play, and behavior during testing). Based on a transactional model of outcome, factors reflecting biological vulnerability (wasting and…

  14. The difference in causes of early and late ultrafiltration failure in peritoneal dialysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, Watske; Parikova, Alena; Struijk, Dirk G.; Krediet, Raymond T.

    2005-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Ultrafiltration failure (UFF) is a major complication of peritoneal dialysis. Although it seems associated with long-term treatment, it can also occur in recently started patients. To identify the causes of this complication in patients with early and late UFF we studied a group of 48

  15. Environmental catastrophes under time-inconsistent preference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michielsen, T.

    2013-02-15

    I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time inconsistency as generations disagree on the relative weights on utility and catastrophe prevention. As a consequence, future generations emit too much from the current generation's perspective and a dynamic game ensues. I consider a sequence of models. When the environmental problem is related to a scarce exhaustible resource, early generations have an incentive to reduce emissions in Markov equilibrium in order to enhance the ecosystem's resilience to future emissions. When the pollutant is expected to become obsolete in the near future, early generations may however increase their emissions if this reduces future emissions. When polluting inputs are abundant and expected to remain essential, the catastrophe becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and the degree of concern for catastrophe prevention has limited or even no effect on equilibrium behaviour.

  16. Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitri Titeca-Beauport

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

  17. Protocols of a catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stscherbak, J.

    1988-01-01

    In unusually frank terms the author, a journalist and epidemiologist, describes the catastrophe of Chernobyl as the 'most pathetic and important' experience of the Soviet people after World War II. Documents, interviews and statements of persons concerned trace the disaster of those days that surpasses imagination and describe how individual persons witnessed the coming true of visions of terror. (orig./HSCH) [de

  18. Risk factors for and impact of respiratory failure on mortality in the early phase of acute pancreatitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dombernowsky, Tilde; Kristensen, Marlene Østermark; Rysgaard, Sisse

    2016-01-01

    : Retrospective cohort study including 359 patients admitted with acute pancreatitis. Information was gathered from electronic patient records. We defined respiratory failure based on the modified Marshall scoring system in the revised Atlanta criteria. Predictors of respiratory failure were evaluated......, or pneumonia may develop respiratory failure, suggests that acute lung injury, possibly associated with systemic inflammation, may be important.......BACKGROUND: The incidence of respiratory failure and other respiratory complications in the early phase of acute pancreatitis (AP) is not well investigated. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of respiratory failure, and its impact on mortality in the early phase AP. METHODS...

  19. Catastrophic failure of polymer melts during extension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Henrik K.

    2013-01-01

    Numerical flow modeling has been applied to study the break of monodisperse polymer melts during extension. These continuum mechanical based computations are within the ideas of the microstructural ’interchain pressure’ theory. Calculated breaks, a result of small initial sample imperfections, ag...

  20. Outcome of Early Initiation of Peritoneal Dialysis in Patients with End-Stage Renal Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Kook-Hwan; Hwang, Young-Hwan; Cho, Jung-Hwa; Kim, Mira; Ju, Kyung Don; Joo, Kwon Wook; Kim, Dong Ki; Kim, Yon Su; Ahn, Curie

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies reported that early initiation of hemodialysis may increase mortality. However, studies that assessed the influence of early initiation of peritoneal dialysis (PD) yielded controversial results. In the present study, we evaluated the prognosis of early initiation of PD on the various outcomes of end stage renal failure patients by using propensity-score matching methods. Incident PD patients (n = 491) who started PD at SNU Hospital were enrolled. The patients were divided into 'early starters (n = 244)' and 'late starters (n = 247)' on the basis of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at the start of dialysis. The calculated propensity-score was used for one-to-one matching. After propensity-score-based matching (n = 136, for each group), no significant differences were observed in terms of all-cause mortality (P = 0.17), technique failure (P = 0.62), cardiovascular event (P = 0.96) and composite event (P = 0.86) between the early and late starters. Stratification analysis in the propensity-score quartiles (n = 491) exhibited no trend toward better or poorer survival in terms of all-cause mortality. In conclusion, early commencement of PD does not reduce the mortality risk and other outcomes. Although the recent guidelines suggest that initiation of dialysis at higher eGFR, physicians should not determine the time to initiate PD therapy simply rely on the eGFR alone. PMID:22323864

  1. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pregnancy. Clinical report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khizroeva, J; Bitsadze, V; Makatsariya, A

    2018-01-08

    We have observed the development of a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a pregnant woman hospitalized at 28 weeks of gestation with a severe preeclampsia. On the same day, an eclampsia attack developed, and an emergency surgical delivery was performed. On the third day, multiorgan failure developed. Examination showed a persistent circulation of lupus anticoagulant, high level of antibodies to cardiolipin, b2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. The usual diagnosis of the severe preeclampsia masked a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, exacerbated by the coincident presence of several types of antiphospholipid antibodies. The first pregnancy resulted in a premature birth at 25 weeks, possibly also due to the circulation of antiphospholipid antibodies. The trigger of the catastrophic form development was the pregnancy itself, surgical intervention, and hyperhomocysteinemia. CAPS is the most severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, manifested in multiple microthrombosis of microcirculation of vital organs and in the development of multiorgan failure against the background of the high level of antiphospholipid antibodies. CAPS is characterized by renal, cerebral, gastrointestinal, adrenal, ovarian, skin, and other forms of microthrombosis. Thrombosis recurrence is typical. Thrombotic microvasculopathy lies at the heart of multiorgan failure and manifests clinically in central nervous system lesions, adrenal insufficiency, and ARDS development. CAPS is a life-threatening condition, therefore, requires an urgent treatment. Optimal treatment of CAPS is not developed. CAPS represent a general medical multidisciplinary problem.

  2. Difficult to predict early failure after major lower-extremity amputations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Morten Tange; Holm, Gitte; Gebuhr, Peter

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The successful outcome of a major amputation depends on several factors, including stump wound healing. The purpose of this study was to examine the criteria upon which the index amputation was based and to identify factors associated with early amputation failure after major non......-traumatic lower-extremity amputation. METHODS: We studied a consecutive one-year series of 36 men and 34 women with a median (25-75% quartiles) age of 72 (63-83) years who were treated in an acute orthopaedic ward; 44 below-knee and 26 above-knee amputees of whom 47 had an American Society of Anesthesiologists...... rating above two. Patient characteristics and other factors potentially influencing early amputation failure within 30 days were evaluated. RESULTS: Eleven patients died (16%) and 11 (16%) had a re-amputation at a higher level, whereas four (6%) had a major revision at the same level within 30 days...

  3. Microtubule catastrophe and rescue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Melissa K; Zanic, Marija; Howard, Jonathon

    2013-02-01

    Microtubules are long cylindrical polymers composed of tubulin subunits. In cells, microtubules play an essential role in architecture and motility. For example, microtubules give shape to cells, serve as intracellular transport tracks, and act as key elements in important cellular structures such as axonemes and mitotic spindles. To accomplish these varied functions, networks of microtubules in cells are very dynamic, continuously remodeling through stochastic length fluctuations at the ends of individual microtubules. The dynamic behavior at the end of an individual microtubule is termed 'dynamic instability'. This behavior manifests itself by periods of persistent microtubule growth interrupted by occasional switching to rapid shrinkage (called microtubule 'catastrophe'), and then by switching back from shrinkage to growth (called microtubule 'rescue'). In this review, we summarize recent findings which provide new insights into the mechanisms of microtubule catastrophe and rescue, and discuss the impact of these findings in regards to the role of microtubule dynamics inside of cells. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam; Ryu, Sang Wan

    2006-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

  5. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-09-15

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

  6. Clavicular bone tunnel malposition leads to early failures in coracoclavicular ligament reconstructions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Jay B; Shaha, James S; Rowles, Douglas J; Bottoni, Craig R; Shaha, Steven H; Tokish, John M

    2013-01-01

    Modern techniques for the treatment of acromioclavicular (AC) joint dislocations have largely centered on free tendon graft reconstructions. Recent biomechanical studies have demonstrated that an anatomic reconstruction with 2 clavicular bone tunnels more closely matches the properties of native coracoclavicular (CC) ligaments than more traditional techniques. No study has analyzed tunnel position in regard to risk of early failure. To evaluate the effect of clavicular tunnel position in CC ligament reconstruction as a risk of early failure. Case series; Level of evidence, 4. A retrospective review was performed of a consecutive series of CC ligament reconstructions performed with 2 clavicular bone tunnels and a free tendon graft. The population was largely a young, active-duty military group of patients. Radiographs were analyzed for the maintenance of reduction and location of clavicular bone tunnels using a picture archiving and communication system. The distance from the lateral border of the clavicle to the center of each bone tunnel was divided by the total clavicular length to establish a ratio. Medical records were reviewed for operative details and functional outcome. Failure was defined as loss of intraoperative reduction. The overall failure rate was 28.6% (8/28) at an average of 7.4 weeks postoperatively. Comparison of bone tunnel position showed that medialized bone tunnels were a significant predictor for early loss of reduction for the conoid (a ratio of 0.292 vs 0.248; P = .012) and trapezoid bone tunnels (a ratio of 0.171 vs 0.128; P = .004); this correlated to an average of 7 to 9 mm more medial in the reconstructions that failed. Reconstructions performed with a conoid ratio of ≥0.30 were significantly more likely to fail (5/5, 100%) than were those performed lateral to a ratio of 0.30 (3/23, 13.0%) (P < .01). There were no failures when the conoid ratio was <0.25 (0/10, 0%). Conoid tunnel placement was also statistically significant for

  7. [Early detection, prevention and management of renal failure in liver transplantation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castells, Lluís; Baliellas, Carme; Bilbao, Itxarone; Cantarell, Carme; Cruzado, Josep Maria; Esforzado, Núria; García-Valdecasas, Juan Carlos; Lladó, Laura; Rimola, Antoni; Serón, Daniel; Oppenheimer, Federico

    2014-10-01

    Renal failure is a frequent complication in liver transplant recipients and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. A variety of risk factors for the development of renal failure in the pre- and post-transplantation periods have been described, as well as at the time of surgery. To reduce the negative impact of renal failure in this population, an active approach is required for the identification of those patients with risk factors, the implementation of preventive strategies, and the early detection of progressive deterioration of renal function. Based on published evidence and on clinical experience, this document presents a series of recommendations on monitoring RF in LT recipients, as well as on the prevention and management of acute and chronic renal failure after LT and referral of these patients to the nephrologist. In addition, this document also provides an update of the various immunosuppressive regimens tested in this population for the prevention and control of post-transplantation deterioration of renal function. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.

  8. CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciumas Cristina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

  9. Noise diagnosis - a method for early detection of failures in a nuclear plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinckmann, H.F.

    1981-01-01

    Noise diagnosis constitutes one method for early detection of plant failures. The method is based on the fact that nearly all undesired processes in a nuclear power plant make a measurable contribution to the noise portion of signals. Well-known examples of undesired processes in pressurized water reactors include core-barrel movement, the vibration of control elements, the appearance of loose parts in the coolant flow, and the process of coolant boiling. Each of these processes has been implicated in past nuclear plant failures. In the German Democratic Republic (GDR) P. Liewers and his colleagues have introduced noise analysis systems into the primary circuit of WWER-440 pressurized water reactors (PWR). The most progressive version (RAS-II) has become a prototype for research and routine investigations. This system is described. (author)

  10. Early administration of tolvaptan preserves renal function in elderly patients with acute decompensated heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimura, Kazuhiro; Momose, Tomoyasu; Hasegawa, Tomoya; Morita, Takehiro; Misawa, Takuo; Motoki, Hirohiko; Izawa, Atsushi; Ikeda, Uichi

    2016-05-01

    Loop diuretics used in the treatment of heart failure often induce renal impairment. This study was conducted in order to evaluate the renal protective effect of adding tolvaptan (TLV), compared to increasing the furosemide (FRM) dose, for the treatment of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in a real-world elderly patient population. This randomized controlled trial enrolled 52 consecutive hospitalized patients (age 83.4±9.6 years) with ADHF. The patients were assigned alternately to either the TLV group (TLV plus conventional treatment, n=26) or the FRM group (increasing the dose of FRM, n=26). TLV was administered within 24h from admission. The incidence of worsening renal function (WRF) within 7 days from admission was significantly lower in the TLV group (26.9% vs. 57.7%, p=0.025). Furthermore, the rates of occurrence of persistent and late-onset (≥5 days from admission) WRF were significantly lower in the TLV group. Persistent and late-onset WRF were significantly associated with a higher incidence of cardiac death or readmission for worsening heart failure in the 90 days following discharge, compared to transient and early-onset WRF, respectively. Early administration of TLV, compared to increased FRM dosage, reduces the incidence of WRF in real-world elderly ADHF patients. In addition, it reduces the occurrence of 'worse' WRF-persistent and late-onset WRF-which are associated with increased rates of cardiac death or readmission for worsening heart failure in the 90 days after discharge. Copyright © 2015 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. The critical catastrophe revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Mulatier, Clélia; Rosso, Alberto; Dumonteil, Eric; Zoia, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    The neutron population in a prototype model of nuclear reactor can be described in terms of a collection of particles confined in a box and undergoing three key random mechanisms: diffusion, reproduction due to fissions, and death due to absorption events. When the reactor is operated at the critical point, and fissions are exactly compensated by absorptions, the whole neutron population might in principle go to extinction because of the wild fluctuations induced by births and deaths. This phenomenon, which has been named critical catastrophe, is nonetheless never observed in practice: feedback mechanisms acting on the total population, such as human intervention, have a stabilizing effect. In this work, we revisit the critical catastrophe by investigating the spatial behaviour of the fluctuations in a confined geometry. When the system is free to evolve, the neutrons may display a wild patchiness (clustering). On the contrary, imposing a population control on the total population acts also against the local fluctuations, and may thus inhibit the spatial clustering. The effectiveness of population control in quenching spatial fluctuations will be shown to depend on the competition between the mixing time of the neutrons (i.e. the average time taken for a particle to explore the finite viable space) and the extinction time

  12. Paraboles et catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Thom, René

    1983-01-01

    René Thom, mathématicien français, membre de l'Académie des Sciences, s'est vu décerner en 1958 la médaille Field, équivalent du Prix Nobel en mathématiques, pour ses créations intellectuelles, la " théorie des catastrophes ", regard nouveau sur toutes les transformations qui adviennent de manière brusque, imprévisible, dramatique. Dans ces entretiens qui vont de la mathématique à l'embryologie, de la linguistique à l'anthropologie et à l'histoire, René Thom expose les grandes lignes de la théorie des catastrophes et passe en revue, avec un esprit à la fois critique et passionné, les grands thèmes scientifiques de notre époque, de la physique atomique à la biologie moléculaire, du " progrès " scientifique et technologique aux connexions complexes entre la société et la science. " Ce petit livre est une extraordinaire réussite en vulgarisation ". (Jean Largeault)

  13. Fukushinobyl, the impossible catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boceno, Laurent

    2012-01-01

    With the emergence of variety of health and environmental crisis or catastrophes (Seveso, Bhopal, Chernobyl, AIDS, contaminated blood, mad cow, influenzas), the author proposes thoughts about the fact that it seems we are not in the era of industrial societies any longer, but in that of societies of risk. He more particularly focuses on Chernobyl and Fukushima to analyse how a social framework is built up to integrate forms of institutionalisation of multifaceted vulnerability, these institutional logics becoming latent social pathologies. In this respect, he more particularly discusses the catastrophic share of nuclear. He shows how what can be considered as a risk is socialised, dissimulated by priority, and then addresses the management of consequences of Chernobyl and how it is used to address the Japanese present situation. He notably outlines a kind of collusion between the WHO and the IAEA about nuclear issues. In his respect, he recalls a statement made by the WHO saying that, from a mental health point of view, the most satisfying solution for the future of pacific uses of nuclear energy would be the emergence of a new generation who would have learned to cope with ignorance and uncertainty

  14. Quantum catastrophe of slow light

    OpenAIRE

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2001-01-01

    Catastrophes are at the heart of many fascinating optical phenomena. The rainbow, for example, is a ray catastrophe where light rays become infinitely intense. The wave nature of light resolves the infinities of ray catastrophes while drawing delicate interference patterns such as the supernumerary arcs of the rainbow. Black holes cause wave singularities. Waves oscillate with infinitely small wave lengths at the event horizon where time stands still. The quantum nature of light avoids this h...

  15. Rescue surgery post-failure of the radiotherapy in early glottis carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodero, Alberto; Piazza, Carlos; Ugarte, Marcelo; Kulay, Yolanda

    2006-01-01

    The treatment of the laryngeal carcinoma is controversial in the otolaryngology literature; in glottis cancer that can be managed with radiotherapy, conservative laryngeal surgery and micro-endoscope by laser. At present time, the main objective in the treatment of the early glottis cancer is the control of the tumor and preservation of a good voice. In small injuries, the surgery and the radiotherapy offer equivalent cure rates. The handling of the failure of radiotherapy is controversial; the options go from the resection endoscope with laser, to the total laryngectomy, with local controls [es

  16. Value of serum PCT in early diagnosis of bacterial infection in patients with liver failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Chuanmin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available ObjectiveTo investigate the value of serum procalcitonin (PCT in early diagnosis of bacterial infection in patients with liver failure. MethodsA total of 463 patients with hepatitis B were selected from January to December, 2014, in the Department of Infectious Diseases, Taihe Hospital. According to the degree of liver injury, the patients were divided into four groups: mild liver injury group (n=120, moderate liver injury group (n=222, sever liver injury group (n=53, and liver failure group (n=68. Serum PCT was measured for all patients, and the white blood cell count (WBC and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP were measured for patients with liver failure. The clinical manifestations were observed and recorded. The t test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data, while the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for non-normally distributed continuous data; the Mann-Whitney U test was used for pairwise comparison of continuous data. The chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was used for the analysis of predictive value. ResultsThe liver failure group had a significantly higher PCT level than the severe liver injury group, moderate liver injury group, and mild liver injury group (0.81[0.34-2.15] vs 0.53[0.21-1.59], 0.35[010-1.18], and 0.17[0.10-0.60], χ2=25.091, P<0.05. The liver failure patients with PCT levels of <0.25 ng/ml (n=10, 0.25-0.5 ng/ml (n=10, and >0.5 ng/ml (n=48 had infection rates of 20%, 30%, and 66.7%, respectively, with a significant difference between the patients with a PCT level of >0.5 ng/ml and those with PCT levels of <0.25 ng/ml and 0.25-0.5 ng/ml (χ2=5631,4650,P=0018,0031. Among the liver failure patients, the infection cases had significantly higher PCT, WBC, and hsCRP than the non-infection cases (PCT: 3.72±1.33 ng/ml vs 0.34±0.12 ng/ml, t=-2.547, P=0.015; hsCRP: 16.70±7.03 mg

  17. Precursory landforms and geologic structures of catastrophic landslides induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chigira, M.; Matsushi, Y.; Tsou, C.

    2013-12-01

    Our experience of catastrophic landslides induced by rainstorms and earthquakes in recent years suggests that many of them are preceded by deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation continues slowly and continually and some of them transform into catastrophic failures, which cause devastating damage in wide areas. Some other types, however, do not change into catastrophic failure. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation that preceded catastrophic failures induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan, had been surveyed with airborne laser scanner beforehand, of which high-resolution DEMs gave us an important clue to identify which type of topographic features of gravitational slope deformation is susceptible to catastrophic failure. We found that 26 of 39 deep-seated catastrophic landslides had small scarps along the heads of future landslides. These scarps were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 1% to 23%. 38% of the landslides with small scarps had scarp ratios less than 4%, and a half less than 8%. This fact suggests that the gravitational slope deformation preceded catastrophic failure was relatively small and may suggest that those slopes were under critical conditions just before catastrophic failure. The above scarp ratios may be characteristic to accretional complex with undulating, anastomosing thrust faults, which were major sliding surfaces of the typhoon-induced landslides. Eleven of the remaining 13 landslides occurred in landslide scars of previous landslides or occurred as an extension of landslide scars at the lower parts of

  18. Factors associated with early failure of arteriovenous fistulae for haemodialysis access.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, V; Ward, R; Taylor, J; Selvakumar, S; How, T V; Bakran, A

    1996-08-01

    The radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula remains the method of choice for haemodialysis access. In order to assess their suitability for fistula formation, the radial arteries and cephalic veins were examined preoperatively by ultrasound colour flow scanner in conjunction with a pulse-generated run-off system. Intraoperative blood flow was measured after construction of the fistulae. Post-operative follow-up was performed at various intervals to monitor the development of the fistulae. Radial artery and cephalic vein diameter less than 1.6 mm was associated with early fistula failure. The intraoperative fistula blood flow did not correlate with the outcome of the operation probably due to vessel spasm from manipulation. However, blood flow velocities measured non-invasively 1 day after the operation were significantly lower in fistulae that failed early compared with those that were adequate for haemodialysis. Most of the increase in fistula diameter and blood flow occur within the first 2 weeks of surgery.

  19. Early Shear Failure Prediction in Incremental Sheet Forming Process Using FEM and ANN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moayedfar, Majid; Hanaei, Hengameh; Majdi Rani, Ahmad; Musa, Mohd Azam Bin; Sadegh Momeni, Mohammad

    2018-03-01

    The application of incremental sheet forming process as a rapid forming technique is rising in variety of industries such as aerospace, automotive and biomechanical purposes. However, the sheet failure is a big challenge in this process which leads wasting lots of materials. Hence, this study tried to propose a method to predict the early sheet failure in this process using mathematical solution. For the feasibility of the study, design of experiment with the respond surface method is employed to extract a set of experiments data for the simulation. The significant forming parameters were recognized and their integration was used for prediction system. Then, the results were inserted to the artificial neural network as input parameters to predict a vast range of applicable parameters avoiding sheet failure in ISF. The value of accuracy R2 ∼0.93 was obtained and the maximum sheet stretch in the depth of 25mm were recorded. The figures generate from the trend of interaction between effective parameters were provided for future studies.

  20. Slope Failure Prediction and Early Warning Awareness Education for Reducing Landslides Casualty in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koay, S. P.; Tay, L. T.; Fukuoka, H.; Koyama, T.; Sakai, N.; Jamaludin, S. B.; Lateh, H.

    2015-12-01

    Northeast monsoon causes heavy rain in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia from November to March, every year. During this monsoon period, besides the happening of flood along east coast, landslides also causes millions of Malaysian Ringgit economical losses. Hence, it is essential to study the prediction of slope failure to prevent the casualty of landslides happening. In our study, we introduce prediction method of the accumulated rainfall affecting the stability of the slope. If the curve, in the graph, which is presented by rainfall intensity versus accumulated rainfall, crosses over the critical line, the condition of the slope is considered in high risk where the data are calculated and sent from rain gauge in the site via internet. If the possibility of slope failure is going high, the alert message will be sent out to the authorities for decision making on road block or setting the warning light at the road side. Besides road block and warning light, we propose to disseminate short message, to pre-registered mobile phone user, to notify the public for easing the traffic jam and avoiding unnecessary public panic. Prediction is not enough to prevent the casualty. Early warning awareness of the public is very important to reduce the casualty of landslides happening. IT technology does not only play a main role in disseminating information, early warning awareness education, by using IT technology, should be conducted, in schools, to give early warning awareness on natural hazard since childhood. Knowing the pass history on landslides occurrence will gain experience on the landslides happening. Landslides historical events with coordinate information are stored in database. The public can browse these historical events via internet. By referring to such historical landslides events, the public may know where did landslides happen before and the possibility of slope failure occurrence again is considered high. Simulation of rainfall induced slope failure mechanism

  1. Early embryonic failure: Expression and imprinted status of candidate genes on human chromosome 21

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sherman, L.S.; Bennett, P.R.; Moore, G.E. [Queen Charlotte`s and Chelsea Hospital, London (United Kingdom)

    1994-09-01

    Two cases of maternal uniparental (hetero)disomy for human chromosome 21 (mUPD21) have been identified in a systematic search for UPD in 23 cases of early embryonic failure (EEF). Bi-parental origin of the other chromosome pairs was confirmed using specific VNTR probes or dinucleotide repeat analysis. Both maternally and paternally derived isochromosomes 21q have previously been identified in two individuals with normal phenotypes. Full UPD21 has a different mechanism of origin than uniparental isochromosome 21q and its effect on imprinted genes and phenotypic outcome will therefore not necessarily be the same. EEF associated with mUPD21 suggests that developmentally important genes on HSA 21 may be imprinted such that they are only expressed from either the maternally or paternally derived alleles. We have searched for monoallelic expression of candidate genes on HSA 21 in human pregnancy (CBS, IFNAR, COL6A1) using intragenic DNA polymorphisms. These genes were chosen either because their murine homologues lie in imprinted regions or because they are potentially important in embryogenesis. Once imprinted candidate genes have been identified, their methylation status and expression in normal, early embryonic failure and uniparental disomy 21 pregnancies will be studied. At the same time, a larger number of cases of EEF are being examined to further investigate the incidence of UPD21 in this group.

  2. The early indicators of financial failure: a study of bankrupt and solvent health systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyne, Joseph S; Singh, Sher G

    2008-01-01

    This article presents a series of pertinent predictors of financial failure based on analysis of solvent and bankrupt health systems to identify which financial measures show the clearest distinction between success and failure. Early warning signals are evident from the longitudinal analysis as early as five years before bankruptcy. The data source includes seven years of annual statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission by 13 health systems before they filed bankruptcy. Comparative data were compiled from five solvent health systems for the same seven-year period. Seven financial solvency ratios are included in this study, including four cash liquidity measures, two leverage measures, and one efficiency measure. The results show distinct financial trends between solvent and bankrupt health systems, in particular for the operating-cash-flow-related measures, namely Ratio 1: Operating Cash Flow Percentage Change, from prior to current period; Ratio 2: Operating Cash Flow to Net Revenues; and Ratio 4: Cash Flow to Total Liabilities, indicating sensitivity in the hospital industry to cash flow management. The high dependence on credit from third-party payers is cited as a reason for this; thus, there is a great need for cash to fund operations. Five managerial policy implications are provided to help health system managers avoid financial solvency problems in the future.

  3. Inversion Method for Early Detection of ARES-1 Case Breach Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Ryan M.; Kulikov, Igor K.; Bajwa, Anupa; Berg, Peter; Smelyanskiy, Vadim

    2010-01-01

    A document describes research into the problem of detecting a case breach formation at an early stage of a rocket flight. An inversion algorithm for case breach allocation is proposed and analyzed. It is shown how the case breach can be allocated at an early stage of its development by using the rocket sensor data and the output data from the control block of the rocket navigation system. The results are simulated with MATLAB/Simulink software. The efficiency of an inversion algorithm for a case breach location is discussed. The research was devoted to the analysis of the ARES-l flight during the first 120 seconds after the launch and early prediction of case breach failure. During this time, the rocket is propelled by its first-stage Solid Rocket Booster (SRB). If a breach appears in SRB case, the gases escaping through it will produce the (side) thrust directed perpendicular to the rocket axis. The side thrust creates torque influencing the rocket attitude. The ARES-l control system will compensate for the side thrust until it reaches some critical value, after which the flight will be uncontrollable. The objective of this work was to obtain the start time of case breach development and its location using the rocket inertial navigation sensors and GNC data. The algorithm was effective for the detection and location of a breach in an SRB field joint at an early stage of its development.

  4. Early dystrophin loss is coincident with the transition of compensated cardiac hypertrophy to heart failure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda P Prado

    Full Text Available Hypertension causes cardiac hypertrophy, one of the most important risk factors for heart failure (HF. Despite the importance of cardiac hypertrophy as a risk factor for the development of HF, not all hypertrophied hearts will ultimately fail. Alterations of cytoskeletal and sarcolemma-associated proteins are considered markers cardiac remodeling during HF. Dystrophin provides mechanical stability to the plasma membrane through its interactions with the actin cytoskeleton and, indirectly, to extracellular matrix proteins. This study was undertaken to evaluate dystrophin and calpain-1 in the transition from compensated cardiac hypertrophy to HF. Wistar rats were subjected to abdominal aorta constriction and killed at 30, 60 and 90 days post surgery (dps. Cardiac function and blood pressure were evaluated. The hearts were collected and Western blotting and immunofluorescence performed for dystrophin, calpain-1, alpha-fodrin and calpastatin. Statistical analyses were performed and considered significant when p<0.05. After 90 dps, 70% of the animals showed hypertrophic hearts (HH and 30% hypertrophic+dilated hearts (HD. Systolic and diastolic functions were preserved at 30 and 60 dps, however, decreased in the HD group. Blood pressure, cardiomyocyte diameter and collagen content were increased at all time points. Dystrophin expression was lightly increased at 30 and 60 dps and HH group. HD group showed decreased expression of dystrophin and calpastatin and increased expression of calpain-1 and alpha-fodrin fragments. The first signals of dystrophin reduction were observed as early as 60 dps. In conclusion, some hearts present a distinct molecular pattern at an early stage of the disease; this pattern could provide an opportunity to identify these failure-prone hearts during the development of the cardiac disease. We showed that decreased expression of dystrophin and increased expression of calpains are coincident and could work as possible

  5. Detection of Taenia solium taeniasis coproantigen is an early indicator of treatment failure for taeniasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustos, Javier A; Rodriguez, Silvia; Jimenez, Juan A; Moyano, Luz M; Castillo, Yesenia; Ayvar, Viterbo; Allan, James C; Craig, Philip S; Gonzalez, Armando E; Gilman, Robert H; Tsang, Victor C W; Garcia, Hector H

    2012-04-01

    Taenia solium causes taeniasis and cysticercosis, a zoonotic complex associated with a significant burden of epilepsy in most countries. Reliable diagnosis and efficacious treatment of taeniasis are needed for disease control. Currently, cure can be confirmed only after a period of at least 1 month, by negative stool microscopy. This study assessed the performance of detection by a coproantigen enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (CoAg-ELISA) for the early evaluation of the efficacy of antiparasitic treatment of human T. solium taeniasis. We followed 69 tapeworm carriers who received niclosamide as standard treatment. Stool samples were collected on days 1, 3, 7, 15, 30, and 90 after treatment and were processed by microscopy and CoAg-ELISA. The efficacy of niclosamide was 77.9% (53/68). Thirteen patients received a second course of treatment and completed the follow-up. CoAg-ELISA was therefore evaluated for a total of 81 cases (68 treatments, 13 retreatments). In successful treatments (n = 64), the proportion of patients who became negative by CoAg-ELISA was 62.5% after 3 days, 89.1% after 7 days, 96.9% after 15 days, and 100% after 30 days. In treatment failures (n = 17), the CoAg-ELISA result was positive for 70.6% of patients after 3 days, 94.1% after 7 days, and 100% after 15 and 30 days. Only 2 of 17 samples in cases of treatment failure became positive by microscopy by day 30. The presence of one scolex, but not multiple scolices, in posttreatment stools was strongly associated with cure (odds ratio [OR], 52.5; P taeniasis. Early assessment at day 15 would detect treatment failure before patients become infective.

  6. Nonlinear physics: Catastrophe, chaos and complexity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arecchi, F.T.

    1992-01-01

    Currently in the world of physics, there is open debate on the role of the three C's - catastrophe, chaos and complexity. Seen as new ideas or paradigms, incapable of being harmonized within the realm of traditional physics, these terms seem to be creating turmoil in the classical physics establishment whose foundations date back to the early seventeenth century. This paper first defines catastrophe, chaos and complexity and shows how these terms are all connected to nonlinear dynamics and how they have long since been present within scientific treatises. It also evidences the relationship of the three C's with the concept of organization, inappropriately called self-organization, and with recognition and decisional strategies of cognitive systems. Relevant to natural science, the development of these considerations is necessitating the re-examination of the role and capabilities of human knowledge and a return to inter-disciplinary scientific-philosophical debate

  7. Intestinal malrotation and catastrophic volvulus in infancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Henry Chong; Pickard, Sarah S; Sridhar, Sunita; Dutta, Sanjeev

    2012-07-01

    Intestinal malrotation in the newborn is usually diagnosed after signs of intestinal obstruction, such as bilious emesis, and corrected with the Ladd procedure. The objective of this report is to describe the presentation of severe cases of midgut volvulus presenting in infancy, and to discuss the characteristics of these cases. We performed a 7-year review at our institution and present two cases of catastrophic midgut volvulus presenting in the post-neonatal period, ending in death soon after the onset of symptoms. These two patients also had significant laboratory abnormalities compared to patients with more typical presentations resulting in favorable outcomes. Although most cases of intestinal malrotation in infancy can be treated successfully, in some circumstances, patients' symptoms may not be detected early enough for effective treatment, and therefore may result in catastrophic midgut volvulus and death. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Treatment of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazzaz, Nayef M.; McCune, W. Joseph; Knight, Jason S.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose of review Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a severe manifestation of APS. While affecting only 1% of patients with APS, the condition is frequently fatal if not recognized and treated early. Here, we will review the current approach to diagnosis and treatment of CAPS. Recent findings Data from the international “CAPS registry,” spearheaded by the European Forum on Antiphospholipid Antibodies, have improved our understanding of at-risk patients, typical clinical features, and associated/precipitating diagnoses. Current guidelines also continue to support a role for anticoagulants and glucocorticoids as foundation therapy in all patients. Finally, new basic science and case series suggest that novel therapies, such as rituximab and eculizumab warrant further study. Summary Attention to associated diagnoses such as infection and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are critical at the time of diagnosis. All patients should be treated with anticoagulation, corticosteroids, and possibly plasma exchange. In patients with SLE, cyclophosphamide should also be considered. In refractory or relapsing cases, new therapies such as rituximab and possibly eculizumab may be options, but need further study. PMID:26927441

  9. Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medina Velasquez, Yimy; Felix Restrepo Suarez, Jose; Iglesias Gamarra, Antonio

    2001-01-01

    The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

  10. Aspirin and Statin Nonuse Associated With Early Biochemical Failure After Prostate Radiation Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaorsky, Nicholas G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Buyyounouski, Mark K., E-mail: mark.buyyounouski@fccc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Li, Tianyu [Department of Biostatistics, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Horwitz, Eric M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To present the largest retrospective series investigating the effect of aspirin and statins, which are hypothesized to have antineoplastic properties, on biochemical failure (nadir plus 2 ng/mL) after prostate radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Between 1989 and 2006, 2051 men with clinically localized prostate cancer received definitive RT alone (median dose, 76 Gy). The rates of aspirin use and statin use (defined as any use at the time of RT or during follow-up) were 36% and 34%, respectively. The primary endpoint of the study was an interval to biochemical failure (IBF) of less than 18 months, which has been shown to be the single strongest predictor of distant metastasis, prostate cancer survival, and overall survival after RT. Patient demographic characteristics and tumor staging factors were assessed with regard to associations with the endpoint. Univariate analysis was performed with the {chi}{sup 2} test for categorical variables and the Wilcoxon test for continuous variables. Multivariable analysis was performed with a multiple logistic regression. Results: The median follow-up was 75 months. Univariate analysis showed that an IBF of less than 18 months was associated with aspirin nonuse (P<.0001), statin nonuse (P<.0001), anticoagulant nonuse (P=.0006), cardiovascular disease (P=.0008), and prostate-specific antigen (continuous) (P=.008) but not with Gleason score, age, RT dose, or T stage. On multivariate analysis, only aspirin nonuse (P=.0012; odds ratio, 2.052 [95% confidence interval, 1.328-3.172]) and statin nonuse (P=.0002; odds ratio, 2.465 [95% confidence interval, 1.529-3.974]) were associated with an IBF of less than 18 months. Conclusions: In patients who received RT for prostate cancer, aspirin or statin nonuse was associated with early biochemical failure, a harbinger of distant metastasis and death. Further study is needed to confirm these findings and to determine the optimal dosing and schedule, as well as the relative

  11. Aspirin and Statin Nonuse Associated With Early Biochemical Failure After Prostate Radiation Therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaorsky, Nicholas G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Li, Tianyu; Horwitz, Eric M.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To present the largest retrospective series investigating the effect of aspirin and statins, which are hypothesized to have antineoplastic properties, on biochemical failure (nadir plus 2 ng/mL) after prostate radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Between 1989 and 2006, 2051 men with clinically localized prostate cancer received definitive RT alone (median dose, 76 Gy). The rates of aspirin use and statin use (defined as any use at the time of RT or during follow-up) were 36% and 34%, respectively. The primary endpoint of the study was an interval to biochemical failure (IBF) of less than 18 months, which has been shown to be the single strongest predictor of distant metastasis, prostate cancer survival, and overall survival after RT. Patient demographic characteristics and tumor staging factors were assessed with regard to associations with the endpoint. Univariate analysis was performed with the χ 2 test for categorical variables and the Wilcoxon test for continuous variables. Multivariable analysis was performed with a multiple logistic regression. Results: The median follow-up was 75 months. Univariate analysis showed that an IBF of less than 18 months was associated with aspirin nonuse (P<.0001), statin nonuse (P<.0001), anticoagulant nonuse (P=.0006), cardiovascular disease (P=.0008), and prostate-specific antigen (continuous) (P=.008) but not with Gleason score, age, RT dose, or T stage. On multivariate analysis, only aspirin nonuse (P=.0012; odds ratio, 2.052 [95% confidence interval, 1.328-3.172]) and statin nonuse (P=.0002; odds ratio, 2.465 [95% confidence interval, 1.529-3.974]) were associated with an IBF of less than 18 months. Conclusions: In patients who received RT for prostate cancer, aspirin or statin nonuse was associated with early biochemical failure, a harbinger of distant metastasis and death. Further study is needed to confirm these findings and to determine the optimal dosing and schedule, as well as the relative

  12. [11C]-Acetoacetate PET imaging: a potential early marker for cardiac heart failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croteau, Etienne; Tremblay, Sébastien; Gascon, Suzanne; Dumulon-Perreault, Véronique; Labbé, Sébastien M.; Rousseau, Jacques A.; Cunnane, Stephen C.; Carpentier, André C.; Bénard, François; Lecomte, Roger

    2014-01-01

    The ketone body acetoacetate could be used as an alternate nutrient for the heart, and it also has the potential to improve cardiac function in an ischemic–reperfusion model or reduce the mitochondrial production of oxidative stress involved in cardiotoxicity. In this study, [ 11 C]-acetoacetate was investigated as an early marker of intracellular damage in heart failure. Methods: A rat cardiotoxicity heart failure model was induced by doxorubicin, Dox(+). [ 14 C]-Acetoacetate, a non-positron (β −) emitting radiotracer, was used to characterize the arterial blood input function and myocardial mitochondrial uptake. Afterward, [ 11 C]-acetoacetate (β +) myocardial PET images were obtained for kinetic analysis and heart function assessment in control Dox(−) (n = 15) and treated Dox(+) (n = 6) rats. The uptake rate (K 1 ) and myocardial clearance rate (k 2 or k mono ) were extracted. Results: [ 14 C]-Acetoacetate in the blood was increased in Dox(+), from 2 min post-injection until the last withdrawal point when the heart was harvested, as well as the uptake in the heart and myocardial mitochondria (unpaired t-test, p < 0.05). PET kinetic analysis of [ 11 C]-acetoacetate showed that rate constants K 1 , k 2 and k mono were decreased in Dox(+) (p < 0.05) combined with a reduction of 24% of the left ventricular ejection fraction (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Radioactive acetoacetate ex vivo analysis [ 14 C], and in vivo kinetic [ 11 C] studies provided evidence that [ 11 C]-acetoacetate can assess heart failure Dox(+). Contrary to myocardial flow reserve (rest–stress protocol), [ 11 C]-acetoacetate can be used to assess reduced kinetic rate constants without requirement of hyperemic stress response. The proposed [ 11 C]-acetoacetate cardiac radiotracer in the investigation of heart disease is novel and paves the way to a potential role for [ 11 C]-acetoacetate in cardiac pathophysiology

  13. Effects of topical bevacizumab application on early bleb failure after trabeculectomy: observational case series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klos-Rola J

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Justyna Klos-Rola, Maria Tulidowicz-Bielak, Tomasz Zarnowski Department of Ophthalmology, Medical University of Lublin, Lublin, Poland Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of topical bevacizumab on the formation and function of filtering blebs in eyes with early bleb failure after antiglaucoma surgery. Methods: Of all patients who underwent mitomycin-augmented trabeculectomy for glaucoma in the Department of Ophthalmology at the Medical University in Lublin, Poland, between March 2009 and March 2010, a total of 21 eyes from 20 patients with injected filtration bleb 9.8 ± 4.7 days after surgery were included in this observational case series. All patients were treated with standard steroid therapy and topical bevacizumab 5 mg/mL five times a day for 20.9 ± 9.8 days. Patients were followed up every other day, and a full eye examination was performed 14, 30, 60, and 180 days after initiation of treatment. Blebs were evaluated for vascularity by slit-lamp examination with concomitant photographic documentation and intraocular pressure measurement. Results: Elevated functional bleb with significantly reduced vascularity was present in 16 eyes, and was flat and nonfunctional in five eyes. Intraocular pressure in all eyes decreased from a mean of 26.6 ± 9.6 mmHg before surgery to 14.6 ± 7.7 mmHg and 15.8 ± 8.3 mmHg at 2 and 6 months after surgery, respectively. Filtration bleb leak was noted in three eyes while on treatment with bevacizumab. Conclusion: Topical application of bevacizumab might favor functional bleb formation after trabeculectomy in eyes with a high risk of failure. Keywords: glaucoma, trabeculectomy, bleb failure, bevacizumab

  14. Screening and treatment for heritable thrombophilia in pregnancy failure: inconsistencies among UK early pregnancy units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norrie, Gillian; Farquharson, Roy G; Greaves, Mike

    2009-01-01

    The significance of heritable thrombophilia in pregnancy failure is controversial. We surveyed all UK Early Pregnancy Units and 70% responded. The majority test routinely for heritable thrombophilias; 80%, 76% and 88% undertook at least one screening test in late miscarriage, recurrent miscarriage and placental abruption, respectively. The range of thrombophilias sought is inconsistent: testing for proteins C and S deficiency and F5 R506Q (factor V Leiden) is most prevalent. Detection of heritable thrombophilia frequently leads to administration of antithrombotics in subsequent pregnancies. Thus, thrombophilia testing and use of antithrombotics are widespread in the UK despite controversies regarding the role of heritable thrombophilia in the pathogenesis of pregnancy complications, and the lack of robust evidence for the efficacy of antithrombotic therapy.

  15. Transvaginal color Doppler imaging of uterine contractions in early pregnancies: Significance of uterine contractions in early pregnancy failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Eun Ju; Han, Chang Jin; Suh, Jung Ho; Kwon, Hyuck Chan

    1999-01-01

    To assess uterine contractions in early pregnancies using transvaginal color Doppler sonography (TVCDS) and to determine the role of uterine contractions in the diagnosis of early pregnancy failure. 76 patients with abnormal pregnancy diagnosed by sonography or histopathology up to 10 weeks of gestation and 38 normal pregnant women as the control group were examines with TVCDS. The presence of uterine contractions was determined by complete or partial disappearance of the color flow signals of vessels within myometrium, and the direction, amplitude (grade 1-3), and interval of uterine contractions were also evaluated. Uterine contractions were identified in 42 (55.3%) of 76 patients with abnormal pregnancy, whereas they were detected only in 2 (5.3%) of 38 normal pregnant women who had initial grade 1 contraction but disappeared in the follow-up study. In 26 patients with blighted ovum or missed abortion, 15 patients (57.7%),showed uterine contraction of grade 1 in 3 cases, grade 2 in 8 cases, and grade 3 in 4 cases and interval from 45 seconds to 5 minutes. In 30 patients with inevitable or incomplete abortion, 23 patients (76.6%) showed uterine contraction of grade 1 in 2 cases, grade 2 in 9 cases, and grade 3 in 12 cases and interval from 1 to 5 minutes. 4 (20%) of 20 patients with threatened abortion had uterine contraction of grade 2 and interval from 2 to 4 minutes. The presence of uterine contractions was significantly different in abnormal pregnancies compared with that of normal and also among the tree different groups of abnormal pregnancies, but the amplitude did not differ.

  16. Transvaginal color Doppler imaging of uterine contractions in early pregnancies: Significance of uterine contractions in early pregnancy failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Eun Ju; Han, Chang Jin; Suh, Jung Ho; Kwon, Hyuck Chan [Aju University SChool of Medicine, Suwon (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-06-15

    To assess uterine contractions in early pregnancies using transvaginal color Doppler sonography (TVCDS) and to determine the role of uterine contractions in the diagnosis of early pregnancy failure. 76 patients with abnormal pregnancy diagnosed by sonography or histopathology up to 10 weeks of gestation and 38 normal pregnant women as the control group were examines with TVCDS. The presence of uterine contractions was determined by complete or partial disappearance of the color flow signals of vessels within myometrium, and the direction, amplitude (grade 1-3), and interval of uterine contractions were also evaluated. Uterine contractions were identified in 42 (55.3%) of 76 patients with abnormal pregnancy, whereas they were detected only in 2 (5.3%) of 38 normal pregnant women who had initial grade 1 contraction but disappeared in the follow-up study. In 26 patients with blighted ovum or missed abortion, 15 patients (57.7%),showed uterine contraction of grade 1 in 3 cases, grade 2 in 8 cases, and grade 3 in 4 cases and interval from 45 seconds to 5 minutes. In 30 patients with inevitable or incomplete abortion, 23 patients (76.6%) showed uterine contraction of grade 1 in 2 cases, grade 2 in 9 cases, and grade 3 in 12 cases and interval from 1 to 5 minutes. 4 (20%) of 20 patients with threatened abortion had uterine contraction of grade 2 and interval from 2 to 4 minutes. The presence of uterine contractions was significantly different in abnormal pregnancies compared with that of normal and also among the tree different groups of abnormal pregnancies, but the amplitude did not differ.

  17. Renin-Angiotensin Activation and Oxidative Stress in Early Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smita I. Negi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Animal models have suggested a role of renin-angiotensin system (RAS activation and subsequent cardiac oxidation in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF. Nevertheless, RAS blockade has failed to show efficacy in treatment of HFpEF. We evaluated the role of RAS activation and subsequent systemic oxidation in HFpEF. Oxidative stress markers were compared in 50 subjects with and without early HFpEF. Derivatives of reactive oxidative metabolites (DROMs, F2-isoprostanes (IsoPs, and ratios of oxidized to reduced glutathione (Eh GSH and cysteine (Eh CyS were measured. Angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE levels and activity were measured. On univariate analysis, HFpEF was associated with male sex (p=0.04, higher body mass index (BMI (p=0.003, less oxidized Eh CyS (p=0.001, lower DROMs (p=0.02, and lower IsoP (p=0.03. Higher BMI (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1–1.6 and less oxidized Eh CyS (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1–1.4 maintained associations with HFpEF on multivariate analysis. Though ACE levels were higher in early HFpEF (OR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.01–1.05, ACE activity was similar to that in controls. HFpEF is not associated with significant systemic RAS activation or oxidative stress. This may explain the failure of RAS inhibitors to alter outcomes in HFpEF.

  18. Vascular Cognitive Impairment Linked to Brain Endothelium Inflammation in Early Stages of Heart Failure in Mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamski, Mateusz G; Sternak, Magdalena; Mohaissen, Tasnim; Kaczor, Dawid; Wierońska, Joanna M; Malinowska, Monika; Czaban, Iwona; Byk, Katarzyna; Lyngsø, Kristina S; Przyborowski, Kamil; Hansen, Pernille B L; Wilczyński, Grzegorz; Chlopicki, Stefan

    2018-03-26

    Although advanced heart failure (HF) is a clinically documented risk factor for vascular cognitive impairment, the occurrence and pathomechanisms of vascular cognitive impairment in early stages of HF are equivocal. Here, we characterize vascular cognitive impairment in the early stages of HF development and assess whether cerebral hypoperfusion or prothrombotic conditions are involved. Tgαq*44 mice with slowly developing isolated HF triggered by cardiomyocyte-specific overexpression of G-αq*44 protein were studied before the end-stage HF, at the ages of 3, 6, and 10 months: before left ventricle dysfunction; at the stage of early left ventricle diastolic dysfunction (with preserved ejection fraction); and left ventricle diastolic/systolic dysfunction, respectively. In 6- to 10-month-old but not in 3-month-old Tgαq*44 mice, behavioral and cognitive impairment was identified with compromised blood-brain barrier permeability, most significantly in brain cortex, that was associated with myelin sheet loss and changes in astrocytes and microglia. Brain endothelial cells displayed increased E-selectin immunoreactivity, which was accompanied by increased amyloid-β 1-42 accumulation in piriform cortex and increased cortical oxidative stress (8-OHdG immunoreactivity). Resting cerebral blood flow measured by magnetic resonance imaging in vivo was preserved, but ex vivo NO-dependent cortical arteriole flow regulation was impaired. Platelet hyperreactivity was present in 3- to 10-month-old Tgαq*44 mice, but it was not associated with increased platelet-dependent thrombogenicity. We report for the first time that vascular cognitive impairment is already present in the early stage of HF development, even before left ventricle systolic dysfunction. The underlying pathomechanism, independent of brain hypoperfusion, involves preceding platelet hyperreactivity and brain endothelium inflammatory activation. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart

  19. Phrenic Nerve Conduction Study in the Early Stage of Guillain-Barre Syndrome as a Predictor of Respiratory Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Barun Kumar; Pandit, Alak

    2018-01-01

    Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) has unpredictable clinical course with severe complication of respiratory failure. To identify clinical profiles and electrophysiological study particularly non-invasive Phrenic nerve conduction study in patients of early GBS to predict respiratory failure. 64 adult (age≥18yrs) patients of early GBS (onset ≤ 14 days) during the study period from January 2014 to October 2015 were evaluated by clinical profiles of age, gender, antecedent infection, time to peak disability, single breath counts, cranial nerve involvement, autonomic dysfunction and non-invasive Phrenic nerve conduction study. Patients with predisposition factors of polyneuropathy like diabetes mellitus, hypothyroidism, vitamin deficiency, renal failure were excluded. Among 64 patients abnormal phrenic nerve conduction study was seen in 65.62% cases (42/64) and 45.23% (19/42) of them developed respiratory failure. Phrenic nerve sum latency, amplitude, duration and area were abnormal in those who developed respiratory failure and they had sum of phrenic nerve latency >28 msec, sum of CMAP amplitude 50 msec and sum of area phrenic nerve study developed respiratory failure. It was found that age, gender, preceding infection, autonomic involvement and types of GB syndrome had no influence on development of respiratory failure (p>0.05). Rapid disease progression to peak disability, more severe disease, shorter single breath counts and cranial nerve involvement were seen more often in patients with respiratory failure. Abnormal Phrenic nerve conduction study in the early Guillain-Barré syndrome might be of great value independently in predicting impending respiratory failure.

  20. Phrenic Nerve Conduction Study in the Early Stage of Guillain–Barre Syndrome as a Predictor of Respiratory Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sen, Barun Kumar; Pandit, Alak

    2018-01-01

    Background: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) has unpredictable clinical course with severe complication of respiratory failure. Objective: To identify clinical profiles and electrophysiological study particularly non-invasive Phrenic nerve conduction study in patients of early GBS to predict respiratory failure. Methods: 64 adult (age≥18yrs) patients of early GBS (onset ≤ 14 days) during the study period from January 2014 to October 2015 were evaluated by clinical profiles of age, gender, antecedent infection, time to peak disability, single breath counts, cranial nerve involvement, autonomic dysfunction and non-invasive Phrenic nerve conduction study. Patients with predisposition factors of polyneuropathy like diabetes mellitus, hypothyroidism, vitamin deficiency, renal failure were excluded. Results: Among 64 patients abnormal phrenic nerve conduction study was seen in 65.62% cases (42/64) and 45.23% (19/42) of them developed respiratory failure. Phrenic nerve sum latency, amplitude, duration and area were abnormal in those who developed respiratory failure and they had sum of phrenic nerve latency >28 msec, sum of CMAP amplitude 50 msec and sum of area phrenic nerve study developed respiratory failure. It was found that age, gender, preceding infection, autonomic involvement and types of GB syndrome had no influence on development of respiratory failure (p>0.05). Rapid disease progression to peak disability, more severe disease, shorter single breath counts and cranial nerve involvement were seen more often in patients with respiratory failure. Conclusion: Abnormal Phrenic nerve conduction study in the early Guillain-Barré syndrome might be of great value independently in predicting impending respiratory failure. PMID:29720799

  1. Breast conservation treatment of early stage breast cancer: patterns of failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leborgne, Felix; Leborgne, Jose H; Ortega, Bettys; Doldan, Raquel; Zubizarreta, Eduardo

    1995-02-15

    Purpose: This study retrospectively assesses the patterns of failure in conservatively treated early stage breast cancer patients by correlating various clinical, pathologic, and treatment-related factors with local, axillary, and distant relapse. Methods and Materials: Between 1973 and 1990, 796 patients (817 breasts) received breast conservation surgery followed by radiotherapy. Local recurrences were counted as events even if they occurred simultaneously or after the appearance of axillary or distant metastases. Results: The 10-year actuarial relative disease-free survival (DFS) rate for T1N0, T2N0, and T1-2N1 was 82%, 71%, and 54%, respectively. Stage N0 patients had a significant DFS advantage over N1 patients (p = 0.02). The 15-year actuarial local recurrence-free rate for T1 and T2 tumors was 82% and 87%, respectively (p = nonsignificant). Univariate analysis identified three significant risk factors for local relapse: (a) 48 breasts with tumors showing an extensive intraductal component had a crude local recurrence rate of 23% compared to 8% for 769 breasts without intraductal component (p 0.0016); (b) the actuarial 10-year local recurrence-free rate for patients under age 40 years was 64% compared to 88% for patients over 40 years (p < 0.0001); (c) the 10-year actuarial local recurrence-free rate for 416 postmenopausal women without adjuvant tamoxifen was 83% compared to 97% for 107 postmenopausal women with tamoxifen (p = 0.0479). Salvage therapy for operable local recurrent patients resulted in a 8-year actuarial DFS rate of 47%, significantly lower than that obtained with primary treatment. The incidence of axillary relapse as the first sign of recurrence was 2%, and could be correlated with the lack of axillary dissection (p < 0.0000005) and primary tumor size (p = 0.03). Radiotherapy to the axilla did not influence axillary relapse. Actuarial 5-year DFS rate after treatment of isolated axillary recurrence was 27%. Axillary failure was a marker for

  2. Breast conservation treatment of early stage breast cancer: patterns of failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leborgne, Felix; Leborgne, Jose H.; Ortega, Bettys; Doldan, Raquel; Zubizarreta, Eduardo

    1995-01-01

    Purpose: This study retrospectively assesses the patterns of failure in conservatively treated early stage breast cancer patients by correlating various clinical, pathologic, and treatment-related factors with local, axillary, and distant relapse. Methods and Materials: Between 1973 and 1990, 796 patients (817 breasts) received breast conservation surgery followed by radiotherapy. Local recurrences were counted as events even if they occurred simultaneously or after the appearance of axillary or distant metastases. Results: The 10-year actuarial relative disease-free survival (DFS) rate for T1N0, T2N0, and T1-2N1 was 82%, 71%, and 54%, respectively. Stage N0 patients had a significant DFS advantage over N1 patients (p = 0.02). The 15-year actuarial local recurrence-free rate for T1 and T2 tumors was 82% and 87%, respectively (p = nonsignificant). Univariate analysis identified three significant risk factors for local relapse: (a) 48 breasts with tumors showing an extensive intraductal component had a crude local recurrence rate of 23% compared to 8% for 769 breasts without intraductal component (p 0.0016); (b) the actuarial 10-year local recurrence-free rate for patients under age 40 years was 64% compared to 88% for patients over 40 years (p < 0.0001); (c) the 10-year actuarial local recurrence-free rate for 416 postmenopausal women without adjuvant tamoxifen was 83% compared to 97% for 107 postmenopausal women with tamoxifen (p = 0.0479). Salvage therapy for operable local recurrent patients resulted in a 8-year actuarial DFS rate of 47%, significantly lower than that obtained with primary treatment. The incidence of axillary relapse as the first sign of recurrence was 2%, and could be correlated with the lack of axillary dissection (p < 0.0000005) and primary tumor size (p = 0.03). Radiotherapy to the axilla did not influence axillary relapse. Actuarial 5-year DFS rate after treatment of isolated axillary recurrence was 27%. Axillary failure was a marker for

  3. Early biomarkers of acute kidney failure after heart angiography or heart surgery in patients with acute coronary syndrome or acute heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torregrosa, Isidro; Montoliu, Carmina; Urios, Amparo; Elmlili, Nisrin; Puchades, María Jesús; Solís, Miguel Angel; Sanjuán, Rafael; Blasco, Maria Luisa; Ramos, Carmen; Tomás, Patricia; Ribes, José; Carratalá, Arturo; Juan, Isabel; Miguel, Alfonso

    2012-01-01

    Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication in cardiac surgery and coronary angiography, which worsens patients' prognosis. The diagnosis is based on the increase in serum creatinine, which is delayed. It is necessary to identify and validate new biomarkers that allow for early and effective interventions. To assess the sensitivity and specificity of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin in urine (uNGAL), interleukin-18 (IL-18) in urine and cystatin C in serum for the early detection of AKI in patients with acute coronary syndrome or heart failure, and who underwent cardiac surgery or catheterization. The study included 135 patients admitted to the intensive care unit for acute coronary syndrome or heart failure due to coronary or valvular pathology and who underwent coronary angiography or cardiac bypass surgery or valvular replacement. The biomarkers were determined 12 hours after surgery and serum creatinine was monitored during the next six days for the diagnosis of AKI. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for NGAL was 0.983, and for cystatin C and IL-18 the AUCs were 0.869 and 0.727, respectively. At a cut-off of 31.9 ng/ml for uNGAL the sensitivity was 100% and the specificity was 91%. uNGAL is an early marker of AKI in patients with acute coronary syndrome or heart failure and undergoing cardiac surgery and coronary angiography, with a higher predictive value than cystatin C or IL-18.

  4. Reprinted article "Factors associated with early failure of arteriovenous fistulae for haemodialysis access".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, V; Ward, R; Taylor, J; Selvakumar, S; How, T V; Bakran, A

    2011-09-01

    The radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula remains the method of choice for haemodialysis access. In order to assess their suitability for fistula formation, the radial arteries and cephalic veins were examined preoperatively by ultrasound colour flow scanner in conjunction with a pulse-generated run-off system. Intraoperative blood flow was measured after construction of the fistulae. Post-operative follow-up was performed at various intervals to monitor the development of the fistulae. Radial artery and cephalic vein diameter less than 1.6 mm was associated with early fistula failure. The intraoperative fistula blood flow did not correlate with the outcome of the operation probably due to vessel spasm from manipulation. However, blood flow velocities measured non-invasively 1 day after the operation were significantly lower in fistulae that failed early compared with those that were adequate for haemodialysis. Most of the increase in fistula diameter and blood flow occur within the first 2 weeks of surgery. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Management of early pregnancy failure and induced abortion by family medicine educators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbitter, Cara; Bennett, Ariana; Schubert, Finn D; Bennett, Ian M; Gold, Marji

    2013-01-01

    Reproductive health care, including treatment of early pregnancy failure (EPF) and induced abortion, is an integral part of patient-centered care provided by family physicians, but data suggest that comprehensive training is not widely available to family medicine residents. The purpose of this study was to assess EPF and induced abortion management practices and attitudes of family medicine physician educators throughout the United States and Canada. These data were collected as part of a cross-sectional survey conducted by the Council of Academic Family Medicine Educational Research Alliance that was distributed via E-mail to 3152 practicing physician members of Council of Academic Family Medicine organizations. The vast majority of respondents (88.2%) had treated EPF, whereas few respondents (15.3%) had provided induced medication or aspiration abortions. Of those who had treated EPF, most had offered medication management (72.7%), whereas a minority had provided aspiration management (16.4%). Almost all respondents (95%) agreed that EPF management is within the scope of family medicine, and nearly three-quarters (73.2%) agreed that early induced abortion is within the scope of family medicine. Our findings suggest that family physician educators are more experienced with EPF management than elective abortion. Given the overlap of skills needed for provision of these services, there is the potential to increase the number of family physician faculty members providing induced abortions.

  6. Catastrophes caused by corrosion

    OpenAIRE

    PETROVIC ZORAN C.

    2016-01-01

    For many years, huge attention has been paid to the problem of corrosion damage and destruction of metallic materials. Experience shows that failures due to corrosion problems are very important, and statistics at the world level shows that the damage resulting from the effects of various forms of corrosion is substantial and that, for example, in industrialized countries it reaches 4-5% of national incomes. Significant funds are determined annually for the prevention and control of corrosion...

  7. Percutaneous transhepatic recanalization of malignant hilarobstruction: A possible rescue for early failure of endoscopic y-stenting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Hoon; Kim, Chang Won; Lee, Tae Hong; Kim, Dong Uk [Pusan National University School of Medicine, Pusan National University Hospital, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Jeon, Ung Bae; Kang, Dae Hwan [Pusan National University School of Medicine, Yangsan Pusan National University Hospital, Yangsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    Endoscopic biliary stenting is well known as an optimal method of management of malignant hilar obstruction, but sometimes the result is not satisfactory, with early stent failure. Percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) has a distinct advantage over endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatoscopy in that with ultrasound guidance one or more appropriate segments for drainage can be chosen. We evaluated the effectiveness of percutaneous transhepatic stenting as a rescue of early failure of endoscopic stenting. Ten patients (4 men, 6 women; age range, 52-78 years; mean age, 69 years) with inoperable biliary obstruction (2 patients with gall bladder cancer and hilar invasion, and 8 patients with Klatskin tumor) and with early endoscopic stent failure were included in our study. All of the patients underwent PTBD and percutaneous transhepatic biliary stenting. Metallic stents were placed in all patients for internal drainage. Percutaneous rescue stenting was successful in all the patients technically and clinically. Mean time for the development of biliary obstruction was 13.5 days after endoscopic stenting. The mean patency of the rescue stenting was 122 days. The mean survival time for percutaneous transhepatic rescue stenting was 226.3 days. In early failure of endoscopic biliary stenting, percutaneous transhepatic recanalization can be a possible solution.

  8. Percutaneous transhepatic recanalization of malignant hilarobstruction: A possible rescue for early failure of endoscopic y-stenting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Hoon; Kim, Chang Won; Lee, Tae Hong; Kim, Dong Uk; Jeon, Ung Bae; Kang, Dae Hwan

    2013-01-01

    Endoscopic biliary stenting is well known as an optimal method of management of malignant hilar obstruction, but sometimes the result is not satisfactory, with early stent failure. Percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) has a distinct advantage over endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatoscopy in that with ultrasound guidance one or more appropriate segments for drainage can be chosen. We evaluated the effectiveness of percutaneous transhepatic stenting as a rescue of early failure of endoscopic stenting. Ten patients (4 men, 6 women; age range, 52-78 years; mean age, 69 years) with inoperable biliary obstruction (2 patients with gall bladder cancer and hilar invasion, and 8 patients with Klatskin tumor) and with early endoscopic stent failure were included in our study. All of the patients underwent PTBD and percutaneous transhepatic biliary stenting. Metallic stents were placed in all patients for internal drainage. Percutaneous rescue stenting was successful in all the patients technically and clinically. Mean time for the development of biliary obstruction was 13.5 days after endoscopic stenting. The mean patency of the rescue stenting was 122 days. The mean survival time for percutaneous transhepatic rescue stenting was 226.3 days. In early failure of endoscopic biliary stenting, percutaneous transhepatic recanalization can be a possible solution.

  9. Forecasting giant, catastrophic slope collapse: lessons from Vajont, Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Petley, David N.

    2003-08-01

    Rapid, giant landslides, or sturzstroms, are among the most powerful natural hazards on Earth. They have minimum volumes of ˜10 6-10 7 m 3 and, normally preceded by prolonged intervals of accelerating creep, are produced by catastrophic and deep-seated slope collapse (loads ˜1-10 MPa). Conventional analyses attribute rapid collapse to unusual mechanisms, such as the vaporization of ground water during sliding. Here, catastrophic collapse is related to self-accelerating rock fracture, common in crustal rocks at loads ˜1-10 MPa and readily catalysed by circulating fluids. Fracturing produces an abrupt drop in resisting stress. Measured stress drops in crustal rock account for minimum sturzstrom volumes and rapid collapse accelerations. Fracturing also provides a physical basis for quantitatively forecasting catastrophic slope failure.

  10. A unified approach of catastrophic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nikolopoulos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

  11. Energy catastrophes and energy consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, G.

    1991-01-01

    The possibility of energy catastrophes in the production of energy serves to make estimation of the true social costs of energy production difficult. As a result, there is a distinct possibility that the private marginal cost curve of energy producers lies to the left or right of the true cost curve. If so, social welfare will not be maximized, and underconsumption or overconsumption of fuels will exist. The occurrence of energy catastrophes and observance of the market reaction to these occurrences indicates that overconsumption of energy has been the case in the past. Postulations as to market reactions to further energy catastrophes lead to the presumption that energy consumption levels remain above those that are socially optimal

  12. Oxidized zirconium on ceramic; Catastrophic coupling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozden, V E; Saglam, N; Dikmen, G; Tozun, I R

    2017-02-01

    Oxidized zirconium (Oxinium™; Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) articulated with polyethylene in total hip arthroplasty (THA) appeared to have the potential to reduce wear dramatically. The thermally oxidized metal zirconium surface is transformed into ceramic-like hard surface that is resistant to abrasion. The exposure of soft zirconium metal under hard coverage surface after the damage of oxidized zirconium femoral head has been described. It occurred following joint dislocation or in situ succeeding disengagement of polyethylene liner. We reported three cases of misuse of Oxinium™ (Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) heads. These three cases resulted in catastrophic in situ wear and inevitable failure although there was no advice, indication or recommendation for this use from the manufacturer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  13. Renal impairment and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction early post-myocardial infarction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorapur, Vinod; Lamas, Gervasio A; Sadowski, Zygmunt P; Reynolds, Harmony R; Carvalho, Antonio C; Buller, Christopher E; Rankin, James M; Renkin, Jean; Steg, Philippe Gabriel; White, Harvey D; Vozzi, Carlos; Balcells, Eduardo; Ragosta, Michael; Martin, C Edwin; Srinivas, Vankeepuram S; Wharton III, William W; Abramsky, Staci; Mon, Ana C; Kronsberg, Shari S; Hochman, Judith S

    2010-01-01

    AIM: To study if impaired renal function is associated with increased risk of peri-infarct heart failure (HF) in patients with preserved ejection fraction (EF). METHODS: Patients with occluded infarct-related arteries (IRAs) between 1 to 28 d after myocardial infarction (MI) were grouped into chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Rates of early post-MI HF were compared among eGFR groups. Logistic regression was used to explore independent predictors of HF. RESULTS: Reduced eGFR was present in 71.1% of 2160 patients, with significant renal impairment (eGFR < 60 mL/min every 1.73 m2) in 14.8%. The prevalence of HF was higher with worsening renal function: 15.5%, 17.8% and 29.4% in patients with CKD stages 1, 2 and 3 or 4, respectively (P < 0.0001), despite a small absolute difference in mean EF across eGFR groups: 48.2 ± 10.0, 47.9 ± 11.3 and 46.2 ± 12.1, respectively (P = 0.02). The prevalence of HF was again higher with worsening renal function among patients with preserved EF: 10.1%, 13.6% and 23.6% (P < 0.0001), but this relationship was not significant among patients with depressed EF: 27.1%, 26.2% and 37.9% (P = 0.071). Moreover, eGFR was an independent correlate of HF in patients with preserved EF (P = 0.003) but not in patients with depressed EF (P = 0.181). CONCLUSION: A significant proportion of post-MI patients with occluded IRAs have impaired renal function. Impaired renal function was associated with an increased rate of early post-MI HF, the association being strongest in patients with preserved EF. These findings have implications for management of peri-infarct HF. PMID:20885993

  14. Autologous transplantation versus allogeneic transplantation in patients with follicular lymphoma experiencing early treatment failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Sonali M; Godfrey, James; Ahn, Kwang Woo; DiGilio, Alyssa; Ahmed, Sairah; Agrawal, Vaibhav; Bachanova, Veronika; Bacher, Ulrike; Bashey, Asad; Bolaños-Meade, Javier; Cairo, Mitchell; Chen, Andy; Chhabra, Saurabh; Copelan, Edward; Dahi, Parastoo B; Aljurf, Mahmoud; Farooq, Umar; Ganguly, Siddhartha; Hertzberg, Mark; Holmberg, Leona; Inwards, David; Kanate, Abraham S; Karmali, Reem; Kenkre, Vaishalee P; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A; Klein, Andreas; Lazarus, Hillard M; Mei, Matthew; Mussetti, Alberto; Nishihori, Taiga; Ramakrishnan Geethakumari, Praveen; Saad, Ayman; Savani, Bipin N; Schouten, Harry C; Shah, Nirav; Urbano-Ispizua, Alvaro; Vij, Ravi; Vose, Julie; Sureda, Anna; Hamadani, Mehdi

    2018-04-12

    Early treatment failure (ETF) in follicular lymphoma (FL), defined as relapse or progression within 2 years of frontline chemoimmunotherapy, is a newly recognized marker of poor survival and identifies a high-risk group of patients with an expected 5-year overall survival (OS) rate of approximately 50%. Transplantation is an established option for relapsed FL, but its efficacy in this specific ETF FL population has not been previously evaluated. This study compared autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (auto-HCT) with either matched sibling donor (MSD) or matched unrelated donor (MUD) allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) as the first transplantation approach for patients with ETF FL (age ≥ 18 years) undergoing auto-HCT or allo-HCT between 2002 and 2014. The primary endpoint was OS. The secondary endpoints were progression-free survival, relapse, and nonrelapse mortality (NRM). Four hundred forty FL patients had ETF (auto-HCT, 240; MSD hematopoietic stem cell transplantation [HCT], 105; and MUD HCT, 95). With a median follow-up of 69 to 73 months, the adjusted probability of 5-year OS was significantly higher after auto-HCT (70%) or MSD HCT (73%) versus MUD HCT (49%; P = .0008). The 5-year adjusted probability of NRM was significantly lower for auto-HCT (5%) versus MSD (17%) or MUD HCT (33%; P ETF, undergoing auto-HCT for FL have low NRM and a promising 5-year OS rate (70%). MSD HCT has lower relapse rates than auto-HCT but similar OS. Cancer 2018. © 2018 American Cancer Society. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

  15. Financing Losses from Catastrophic Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-01

    often held in the form of bonds, the interest on which is subject to corporate income tax , which reduces the net earnings to each insurer’s shareholders...course; it is a basic feature of the corporate income tax . But, as explained above, catastrophe insurance is distinguished from other types of

  16. Early Caffeine Prophylaxis and Risk of Failure of Initial Continuous Positive Airway Pressure in Very Low Birth Weight Infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Ravi M; Zimmerman, Kanecia; Carlton, David P; Clark, Reese; Benjamin, Daniel K; Smith, P Brian

    2017-11-01

    To test the hypothesis that early caffeine treatment on the day of birth, compared with later treatment in very low birth weight (VLBW, caffeine in the first week of life. We used multivariable conditional logistic regression to compare the risk of CPAP failure, defined as invasive mechanical ventilation or surfactant therapy on DOL 1-6, by timing of caffeine treatment as either early (initiation on DOL 0) or routine (initiation on DOL 1-6). We identified 11 133 infants; 4528 (41%) received early caffeine and 6605 (59%) received routine caffeine. Median gestational age was lower in the early caffeine group, 29 weeks (25th, 75th percentiles; 28, 30) vs the routine caffeine group, 30 weeks (29, 31); P caffeine groups: 22% vs 21%; adjusted OR = 1.05 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.18). Early caffeine treatment on the day of birth was not associated with a decreased risk of CPAP failure in the first week of life for VLBW infants initially treated with CPAP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verendel, Vilhelm; Johansson, Daniel J. A.; Lindgren, Kristian

    2016-03-01

    Two decades of international negotiations show that agreeing on emission levels for climate change mitigation is a hard challenge. However, if early warning signals were to show an upcoming tipping point with catastrophic damage, theory and experiments suggest this could simplify collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the actual threshold, no country would have a free-ride incentive to increase emissions over the tipping point, but it remains for countries to negotiate their emission levels to reach these agreements. We model agents bargaining for emission levels using strategic reasoning to predict emission bids by others and ask how this affects the possibility of reaching agreements that avoid catastrophic damage. It is known that policy elites often use a higher degree of strategic reasoning, and in our model this increases the risk for climate catastrophe. Moreover, some forms of higher strategic reasoning make agreements to reduce greenhouse gases unstable. We use empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning when simulating the model.

  18. Ergospirometry and Echocardiography in Early Stage of Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction and in Healthy Individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Lima Garcia

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is a syndrome characterized by changes in diastolic function; it is more prevalent among the elderly, women, and individuals with systemic hypertension (SH and diabetes mellitus. However, in its early stages, there are no signs of congestion and it is identified in tests by adverse remodeling, decreased exercise capacity and diastolic dysfunction. Objective: To compare doppler, echocardiographic (Echo, and cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET variables - ergospirometry variables - between two population samples: one of individuals in the early stage of this syndrome, and the other of healthy individuals. Methods: Twenty eight outpatients diagnosed with heart failure according to Framingham’s criteria, ejection fraction > 50% and diastolic dysfunction according to the european society of cardiology (ESC, and 24 healthy individuals underwent Echo and CPET. Results: The group of patients showed indexed atrial volume and left ventricular mass as well as E/E’ and ILAV/A´ ratios significantly higher, in addition to a significant reduction in peak oxygen consumption and increased VE/VCO2 slope, even having similar left ventricular sizes in comparison to those of the sample of healthy individuals. Conclusion: There are significant differences between the structural and functional variables analyzed by Echo and CPET when comparing two population samples: one of patients in the early stage of heart failure with ejection fraction greater than or equal to 50% and another of healthy individuals.

  19. Dietary Sodium Modulation of Aldosterone Activation and Renal Function During the Progression of Experimental Heart Failure Miller: Dietary Sodium and Early Heart Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Wayne L.; Borgeson, Daniel D.; Grantham, J. Aaron; Luchner, Andreas; Redfield, Margaret M.; Burnett, John C.

    2015-01-01

    Aims Aldosterone activation is central to the sodium-fluid retention that marks the progression of heart failure (HF). The actions of dietary sodium restriction, a mainstay in HF management, on cardiorenal and neuroendocrine adaptations during the progression of HF are poorly understood. The study aim was to assess the role of dietary sodium during the progression of experimental HF. Methods and Results Experimental HF was produced in a canine model by rapid right ventricular pacing which evolves from early mild HF to overt, severe HF. Dogs were fed one of three diets: 1) high sodium [250 mEq (5.8 grams) per day, n=6]; 2) standard sodium [58 mEq (1.3 grams) per day, n=6]; and 3) sodium restriction [11 mEq (0.25 grams) per day, n=6]. During the 38 day study hemodynamics, renal function, renin activity (PRA), and aldosterone were measured. Changes in hemodynamics at 38 days were similar in all three groups, as were changes in renal function. Aldosterone activation was demonstrated in all three groups, however, dietary sodium restriction, in contrast to high sodium, resulted in early (10 days) activation of PRA and aldosterone. High sodium demonstrated significant suppression of aldosterone activation over the course of HF progression. Conclusions Excessive dietary sodium restriction particularly in early stage HF results in early aldosterone activation, while normal and excess sodium intake are associated with delayed or suppressed activation. These findings warrant evaluation in humans to determine if dietary sodium manipulation, particularly during early stage HF, may have a significant impact on neuroendocrine disease progression. PMID:25823360

  20. Severe catastrophes and public reactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmachkin, Vitaly

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Sustainable Development and Anti-Nuclear Opposition: In the new century many problems of sustainable development of the world are exacerbated. Naturally these problems- how to reach harmonious development of the North and South, East and West, how to solve power problems of the world without infringement of ecological balances in the environment, without a substantial climate warming over a growing intensity of greenhouses discharges from an industry are very complicated. Many experts and we are convinced that these problems cannot be solved without broad uses of a nuclear energy. On Millennium Summit meeting in 2000 Mr. President of Russia V. Putin has presented the important initiative directed on solution of future energy problems and on searching the ways of sustainable development. His ideas consisted of the development under IAEA aegis the International Project for ensuring of Non-proliferation of arms, protection and improvement of the environment, use of nuclear energy without accumulation of plutonium and enriched uranium. The nuclear societies should participate in broadly informing the public about this initiative. But in a society there is the opposition of development of nuclear power, the prolonged conflict 'greens' with nuclear supporters is continuing. Despite many advantages of nuclear power the fear of nuclear radiation inspires fighters for cleanliness of an environment on struggle for closing of nuclear power plants. The pressure of 'greens' gained strength after failures on TMI-2 and Chernobyl plants. It is possible to expect that the attacks 'greens' will be intensified after September 11 when aeroplanes with passengers captured by kamikazes crashed and destroyed the buildings of WTC in New York and Pentagon in Washington. Such terrible events have showed a vulnerability of a modem civilisation before the actions of terrorists. The roots of anti-nuclear position: It is possible to distinguish economical, social, scientific roots of

  1. Early predictors of success of non-invasive positive pressure ventilation in hypercapnic respiratory failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, D; Prasad, Bnbm; Tampi, P S; Ramprasad, R

    2011-10-01

    Non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) has emerged as a significant advancement in the management of acute hypercapnic respiratory failure. Patients with hypercapnic respiratory failure requiring ventilation therapy (respiratory rate [RR] of > 30 breaths per minutes, PaCO2 > 55 mmHg and arterial pH success group and these parameters continued to improve even after four and 24 hours of NIPPV treatment. Out of 24 (24%) patients who failed to respond, 13 (54%) needed endotracheal intubation within one hour. The failure group had higher baseline HR than the success group. Improvement in HR, RR, pH, and PCO2 one hour after putting the patient on NIPPV predicts success of non-invasive positive pressure ventilation in hypercapnic respiratory failure.

  2. Reactor accidents and nuclear catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchhoff, R.; Linde, H.J.

    1979-01-01

    Assuming some preliminary knowledge of the fundamentals of atomic physics, the book describes the effects of ionizing radiation on the human organism. In order to assess the potential hazards of reactor accidents and the extent of a nuclear catastrophe, the technology of power generation in nuclear power stations is presented together with its potential dangers as well as the physical and medical processes occurring during a nuclear weapons explosion. The special medical aspects are presented which range from first aid in the case of a catastrophe to the accute radiation syndrome, the treatment of burns to the therapy of late radiolesions. Finally, it is confirmed that the treatment of radiation injured persons does not give rise to basically new medical problems. (orig./HP) [de

  3. Early Adoption of Sacubitril/Valsartan for Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: Insights From Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Nancy; Fonarow, Gregg C; Lippmann, Steven J; Mi, Xiaojuan; Heidenreich, Paul A; Yancy, Clyde W; Greiner, Melissa A; Hammill, Bradley G; Hardy, N Chantelle; Turner, Stuart J; Laskey, Warren K; Curtis, Lesley H; Hernandez, Adrian F; Mentz, Robert J; O'Brien, Emily C

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and variation in angiotensin receptor/neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) prescription among a real-world population with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved sacubitril/valsartan for patients with HFrEF in July 2015. Little is known about the early patterns of use of this novel therapy. The study included patients discharged alive from hospitals in Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF), a registry of hospitalized patients with heart failure, between July 2015 and June 2016 who had documentation of whether ARNIs were prescribed at discharge. Patient and hospital characteristics were compared among patients with HFrEF (ejection fraction ≤40%) with and without ARNI prescription at discharge, excluding those with documented contraindications to ARNIs. To evaluate hospital variation, hospitals with at least 10 eligible hospitalizations during the study period were assessed. Of 21,078 patients hospitalized with HFrEF during the study period, 495 (2.3%) were prescribed ARNIs at discharge. Patients prescribed ARNIs were younger (median age 65 years vs. 70 years; p < 0.001), had lower ejection fractions (median 23% vs. 25%; p < 0.001), and had higher use of aldosterone antagonists (45% vs. 31%; p < 0.001) at discharge. At the 241 participating hospitals with 10 or more eligible admissions, 125 (52%) reported no discharge prescriptions of ARNIs. Approximately 2.3% of patients hospitalized for HFrEF in a national registry were prescribed ARNI therapy in the first 12 months following Food and Drug Administration approval. Further study is needed to identify and overcome barriers to implementing new evidence into practice, such as ARNI use among eligible patients with HFrEF. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Expected dose for the early failure scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, J.C.; Hansen, C.W.; Sallaberry, C.J.

    2014-01-01

    Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes the determination of expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository for the early waste package (WP) failure scenario class and the early drip shield (DS) failure scenario class in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) properties of the early failure scenario classes and the determination of dose and expected dose the RMEI, (ii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the early WP failure scenario class, (iii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the early DS failure scenario class, (iv) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the combined early WP and early DS failure scenario class with and without the inclusion of failures resulting from nominal processes, and (v) uncertainty in the occurrence of early failure scenario classes. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA. - Highlights: • Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. DOE in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. • Properties of the early failure scenario classes (i.e. early waste package failure and early drip shield failure) in the 2008 YM performance assessment are described. • Determination of dose, expected dose and expected (mean

  5. Catastrophic events and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloyd, Elizabeth; Dyer, Carmel B

    2010-12-01

    The plight of older adults during catastrophic events is a societal concern. Older persons have an increased prevalence of cognitive disorders, chronic illnesses, and mobility problems that limit their ability to cope. These disorders may result in a lack of mental capacity and the ability to discern when they should evacuate or resolve problems encountered during a catastrophe. Some older persons may have limited transportation options, and many of the elderly survivors are at increased risk for abuse, neglect, and exploitation. Recommendations for future catastrophic events include the development of a federal tracking system for elders and other vulnerable adults, the designation of separate shelter areas for elders and other vulnerable adults, and involvement of gerontological professionals in all aspects of emergency preparedness and care delivery, including training of frontline workers. Preparation through preevent planning that includes region-specific social services, medical and public health resources, volunteers, and facilities for elders and vulnerable adults is critical. Elders need to be protected from abuse and fraud during catastrophic events. A public health triage system for elders and other vulnerable populations in pre- and postdisaster situations is useful, and disaster preparedness is paramount. Communities and members of safety and rescue teams must address ethical issues before an event. When older adults are involved, consideration needs to be given to triage decision making, transporting those who are immobile, the care of older adults who receive palliative care, and the equitable distribution of resources. Nurses are perfectly equipped with the skills, knowledge, and training needed to plan and implement disaster preparedness programs. In keeping with the tradition of Florence Nightingale, nurses can assume several crucial roles in disaster preparedness for older adults. Nurses possess the ability to participate and lead community

  6. Early failure mechanisms of constrained tripolar acetabular sockets used in revision total hip arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, Christopher C; Hozack, William; Lavernia, Carlos; Sharkey, Peter; Shastri, Shani; Rothman, Richard H

    2003-10-01

    Fifty-eight patients received an Osteonics constrained acetabular implant for recurrent instability (46), girdlestone reimplant (8), correction of leg lengthening (3), and periprosthetic fracture (1). The constrained liner was inserted into a cementless shell (49), cemented into a pre-existing cementless shell (6), cemented into a cage (2), and cemented directly into the acetabular bone (1). Eight patients (13.8%) required reoperation for failure of the constrained implant. Type I failure (bone-prosthesis interface) occurred in 3 cases. Two cementless shells became loose, and in 1 patient, the constrained liner was cemented into an acetabular cage, which then failed by pivoting laterally about the superior fixation screws. Type II failure (liner locking mechanism) occurred in 2 cases. Type III failure (femoral head locking mechanism) occurred in 3 patients. Seven of the 8 failures occurred in patients with recurrent instability. Constrained liners are an effective method for treatment during revision total hip arthroplasty but should be used in select cases only.

  7. Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns, Jr.

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

  8. Spiral arms, comets and terrestrial catastrophism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clube, S.V.M.; Napier, W.M.

    1982-01-01

    A review is presented of an hypothesis of terrestrial catastrophism in which comets grow in molecular clouds and are captured by the Sun as it passes through the spiral arms of the Galaxy. Assuming that comets are a major supplier of the Earth-crossing (Appollo) asteroid population, the latter fluctuates correspondingly and leads to episodes of terrestrial bombardment. Changes in the rotational momentum of core and mantle, generated by impacts, lead to episodes of magnetic field reversal and tectonic activity, while surface phenomena lead to ice-ages and mass extinctions. An episodic geophysical history with an interstellar connection is thus implied. If comets in spiral arms are necessary intermediaries in the process of star formation, the theory also has implications relating to early solar system history and galactic chemistry. These aspects are briefly discussed with special reference to the nature of spiral arms. (author)

  9. Evaluation of the cool-down behaviour of ITER FW beryllium tiles for an early failure detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Weber

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The design of the first wall in ITER foresees several hundred thousand beryllium tiles, which are bonded to the water-cooled CuCrZr supporting structure. Due to the nature of a Tokamak reactor this bonding is faced to thermal fatigue. Since the failure of a single tile might already have a major impact on the operability of ITER, comprehensive high heat flux tests are performed on prototypes prior to the acceptance of manufacturing procedures. For a deeper understanding of the temperature curves, which were and will be measured by IR devices of these first wall prototypes, thermo-mechanical FEM simulations shall demonstrate the possibilities of an early bonding failure detection. Hereby, the maximum temperatures for each cycle as well as the cool-down behaviour are the input data.

  10. Prognostic importance of renal function in patients with early heart failure and mild left ventricular dysfunction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smilde, Tom; Hillege, Hans; Voors, Adriaan; Dunselman, P.H.J.; Van Veldhuisen, D.J.

    2004-01-01

    We evaluated the prognostic value of renal function in an initially “untreated” population with mild heart failure and compared the prognosis of this population with a matched controlled population. During a follow-up of 13 years (mean 11.7), 90 patients (56%) died. Mortality was higher compared

  11. Success after Failure: Academic Effects and Psychological Implications of Early Universal Algebra Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Keith A.; Scott, Allison; Romero, Martin; Saddler, Derrick

    2015-01-01

    In this article, the authors use the High School Longitudinal Study 2009 (HSLS:09) national database to analyze the relationships between algebra failure, subsequent performance, motivation, and college readiness. Students who failed eighth-grade Algebra I did not differ significantly in mathematics proficiency from those who passed lower-level…

  12. Growth at the Age of 4 Years Subsequent to Early Failure to Thrive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristiansson, Bengt; Fallstrom, Sven P.

    1987-01-01

    Followup at age 4 of 55 children, previously investigated for failure to thrive (FFT) at 4-18 months of age, indicated normal growth for most children with organic causes of FFT, but persisting suboptimal growth patterns for children with nonorganic FFT, particularly for those children with higher numbers of risk factors. (Author/DB)

  13. Early treatment with tolvaptan improves diuretic response in acute heart failure with renal dysfunction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matsue, Yuya; ter Maaten, Jozine M.; Suzuki, Makoto; Torii, Sho; Yamaguchi, Satoshi; Fukamizu, Seiji; Ono, Yuichi; Fujii, Hiroyuki; Kitai, Takeshi; Nishioka, Toshihiko; Sugi, Kaoru; Onishi, Yuko; Noda, Makoto; Kagiyama, Nobuyuki; Satoh, Yasuhiro; Yoshida, Kazuki; van der Meer, Peter; Damman, Kevin; Voors, Adriaan A.; Goldsmith, Steven R.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Poor response to diuretics is associated with worse prognosis in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). We hypothesized that treatment with tolvaptan improves diuretic response in patients with AHF. Methods: We performed a secondary analysis of the AQUAMARINE open-label randomized

  14. GLUT12 deficiency during early development results in heart failure and a diabetic phenotype in zebrafish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiménez-Amilburu, Vanesa; Jong-Raadsen, Susanne; Bakkers, Jeroen; Spaink, Herman P.; Marín-Juez, Rubén

    2015-01-01

    Cardiomyopathies-associated metabolic pathologies (e.g., type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance) are a leading cause of mortality. It is known that the association between these pathologies works in both directions, for which heart failure can lead to metabolic derangements such as insulin

  15. GLUT12 deficiency during early development results in heart failure and a diabetic phenotype in zebrafish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiménez-Amilburu, Vanesa; Jong-Raadsen, Susanne; Bakkers, Jeroen; Spaink, Herman P; Marín-Juez, Rubén

    Cardiomyopathies-associated metabolic pathologies (e.g., type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance) are a leading cause of mortality. It is known that the association between these pathologies works in both directions, for which heart failure can lead to metabolic derangements such as insulin

  16. Extended prediction rule to optimise early detection of heart failure in older persons with non-acute shortness of breath : A cross-sectional study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Riet, Evelien E S; Hoes, Arno W.; Limburg, Alexander; Landman, Marcel A J; Kemperman, Hans; Rutten, Frans H.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: There is a need for a practical tool to aid general practitioners in early detection of heart failure in the elderly with shortness of breath. In this study, such a screening rule was developed based on an existing rule for detecting heart failure in older persons with a diagnosis of

  17. Early management of patients with acute heart failure: state of the art and future directions. A consensus document from the society for academic emergency medicine/heart failure society of America acute heart failure working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Sean; Storrow, Alan B; Albert, Nancy M; Butler, Javed; Ezekowitz, Justin; Felker, G Michael; Fermann, Gregory J; Fonarow, Gregg C; Givertz, Michael M; Hiestand, Brian; Hollander, Judd E; Lanfear, David E; Levy, Phillip D; Pang, Peter S; Peacock, W Frank; Sawyer, Douglas B; Teerlink, John R; Lenihan, Daniel J

    2015-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) afflicts nearly 6 million Americans, resulting in one million emergency department (ED) visits and over one million annual hospital discharges. An aging population and improved survival from cardiovascular diseases is expected to further increase HF prevalence. Emergency providers play a significant role in the management of patients with acute heart failure (AHF). It is crucial that emergency physicians and other providers involved in early management understand the latest developments in diagnostic testing, therapeutics and alternatives to hospitalization. Further, clinical trials must be conducted in the ED in order to improve the evidence base and drive optimal initial therapy for AHF. Should ongoing and future studies suggest early phenotype-driven therapy improves in-hospital and post-discharge outcomes, ED treatment decisions will need to evolve accordingly. The potential impact of future studies which incorporate risk-stratification into ED disposition decisions cannot be underestimated. Predictive instruments that identify a cohort of patients safe for ED discharge, while simultaneously addressing barriers to successful outpatient management, have the potential to significantly impact quality of life and resource expenditures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

    2013-01-01

    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

  19. A catastrophe in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ignatovich, V.K.

    2004-01-01

    The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed

  20. Patients with the worst outcomes after paracetamol (acetaminophen)-induced liver failure have an early monocytopenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J K; MacKinnon, A C; Man, T Y; Manning, J R; Forbes, S J; Simpson, K J

    2017-02-01

    Acute liver failure (ALF) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Studies have implicated the immune response, especially monocyte/macrophages as being important in dictating outcome. To investigate changes in the circulating monocytes and other immune cells serially in patients with ALF, relate these with cytokine concentrations, monocyte gene expression and patient outcome. In a prospective case-control study in the Scottish Liver Transplant Unit, Royal Infirmary Edinburgh, 35 consecutive patients admitted with paracetamol-induced liver failure (POD-ALF), 10 patients with non-paracetamol causes of ALF and 16 controls were recruited. The peripheral blood monocyte phenotype was analysed by flow cytometry, circulating cytokines quantified by protein array and monocyte gene expression array performed and related to outcome. On admission, patients with worst outcomes after POD-ALF had a significant monocytopenia, characterised by reduced classical and expanded intermediate monocyte population. This was associated with reduced circulating lymphocytes and natural killer cells, peripheral cytokine patterns suggestive of a 'cytokine storm' and increased concentrations of cytokines associated with monocyte egress from the bone marrow. Gene expression array did not differentiate patient outcome. At day 4, there was no significant difference in monocyte, lymphocyte or natural killer cells between survivors and the patients with adverse outcomes. Severe paracetamol liver failure is associated with profound changes in the peripheral blood compartment, particularly in monocytes, related with worse outcomes. This is not seen in patients with non-paracetamol-induced liver failure. Significant monocytopenia on admission may allow earlier clarification of prognosis, and it highlights a potential target for therapeutic intervention. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Failure rate analysis using GLIMMIX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, L.M.; Hemphill, G.M.; Martz, H.F.

    1998-01-01

    This paper illustrates use of a recently developed SAS macro, GLIMMIX, for implementing an analysis suggested by Wolfinger and O'Connell (1993) in modeling failure count data with random as well as fixed factor effects. Interest in this software tool arose from consideration of modernizing the Failure Rate Analysis Code (FRAC), developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the early 1980's by Martz, Beckman and McInteer (1982). FRAC is a FORTRAN program developed to analyze Poisson distributed failure count data as a log-linear model, possibly with random as well as fixed effects. These statistical modeling assumptions are a special case of generalized linear mixed models, identified as GLMM in the current statistics literature. In the nearly 15 years since FRAC was developed, there have been considerable advances in computing capability, statistical methodology and available statistical software tools allowing worthwhile consideration of the tasks of modernizing FRAC. In this paper, the approaches to GLMM estimation implemented in GLIMMIX and in FRAC are described and a comparison of results for the two approaches is made with data on catastrophic time-dependent pump failures from a report by Martz and Whiteman (1984). Additionally, statistical and graphical model diagnostics are suggested and illustrated with the GLIMMIX analysis results

  2. Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hachisu, I; Sugimoto, D [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of General Education; Nakada, Y; Nomoto, K

    1978-08-01

    Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed.

  3. Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro; Nakada, Yoshikazu; Nomoto, Ken-ichi.

    1978-01-01

    Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed. (author)

  4. How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

  5. Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2002-01-01

    In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light

  6. Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2002-04-01

    In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

  7. Theory of a Slow-Light Catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Leonhardt, Ulf

    2001-01-01

    In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. The paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, arXiv:physics/0111058, Nature (in press)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

  8. Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according ...... to the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

  9. Early Phase Contingency Trajectory Design for the Failure of the First Lunar Orbit Insertion Maneuver: Direct Recovery Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Young-Joo; Bae, Jonghee; Kim, Young-Rok; Kim, Bang-Yeop

    2017-12-01

    To ensure the successful launch of the Korea pathfinder lunar orbiter (KPLO) mission, the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) is now performing extensive trajectory design and analysis studies. From the trajectory design perspective, it is crucial to prepare contingency trajectory options for the failure of the first lunar brake or the failure of the first lunar orbit insertion (LOI) maneuver. As part of the early phase trajectory design and analysis activities, the required time of flight (TOF) and associated delta-V magnitudes for each recovery maneuver (RM) to recover the KPLO mission trajectory are analyzed. There are two typical trajectory recovery options, direct recovery and low energy recovery. The current work is focused on the direct recovery option. Results indicate that a quicker execution of the first RM after the failure of the first LOI plays a significant role in saving the magnitudes of the RMs. Under the conditions of the extremely tight delta-V budget that is currently allocated for the KPLO mission, it is found that the recovery of the KPLO without altering the originally planned mission orbit (a 100 km circular orbit) cannot be achieved via direct recovery options. However, feasible recovery options are suggested within the boundaries of the currently planned delta-V budget. By changing the shape and orientation of the recovered final mission orbit, it is expected that the KPLO mission may partially pursue its scientific mission after successful recovery, though it will be limited.

  10. Catastrophizing in Patients with Burning Mouth Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana ANDABAK ROGULJ

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Burning mouth syndrome (BMS is an idiopathic painful condition which manifests with burning sensations in the oral cavity in patients with clinically normal oral mucosa and without any local and/or systemic causative factor. Catastrophizing is defined as an exaggerated negative orientation toward pain stimuli and pain experience. The aim of this study was to examine the association between catastrophizing and clinical parameters of BMS, and to examine the association between catastrophizing and the quality of life in patients with BMS. Materials and methods: Anonymous questionnaire consisting of 3 parts (demographic and clinical data with 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS, Croatian version of the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14 scale and Croatian version of the Pain Catastrophizing scale (PC, was distributed to 30 patients diagnosed with BMS. Results: A higher level of catastrophizing was clinically significant in 30% of the patients. Total catastrophizing score and all three subcomponents of catastrophizing significantly correlated with the intensity of symptoms, but did not correlate with the duration of symptoms. Gender and previous treatment did not affect the catastrophizing. Conclusion: Obtaining the information about catastrophizing could help a clinician to identify patients with negative behavioural patterns. Additional psychological intervention in these individuals could reduce/eliminate negative cognitive factors and improve coping with chronic painful condition such as BMS.

  11. Six-Year Survival and Early Failure Rate of 2918 Implants with Hydrophobic and Hydrophilic Enossal Surfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Le Gac

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this chart review was to obtain an objective, quantitative assessment of the clinical performance of an implant line used in an implantological office setting. Implants with hydrophilic (INICELL and hydrophobic (TST; both: Thommen Medical AG, Grenchen, Switzerland enossal surfaces were compared and the cumulative implant survival rate was calculated. The data of 1063 patients that received 2918 implants (1337 INICELL, 1581 TST was included. The average follow up time was 2.1 (1.1–5.4 years for INICELL and 4.5 (1.3–5.9 years for TST implants (Thommen Medical AG, Switzerland. In the reported period 7 implants with INICELL (0.5% and 23 TST implants (1.5% failed. This difference was statistically significant. The analysis of cases treated and followed up in a single implantological office for 6 years confirmed the very good clinical outcome that was achieved with both used implant lines. Within the limitations of this retrospective analysis, the overall early failure rate of the hydrophilic implants was significantly lower than that of hydrophobic implants. The use of hydrophilic implants allows the clinician to obtain less early failures, hence the interest of an up-to-date surface for the daily work of an implant practice.

  12. Six-Year Survival and Early Failure Rate of 2918 Implants with Hydrophobic and Hydrophilic Enossal Surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gac, Olivier Le; Grunder, Ueli

    2015-02-05

    The aim of this chart review was to obtain an objective, quantitative assessment of the clinical performance of an implant line used in an implantological office setting. Implants with hydrophilic (INICELL) and hydrophobic (TST; both: Thommen Medical AG, Grenchen, Switzerland) enossal surfaces were compared and the cumulative implant survival rate was calculated. The data of 1063 patients that received 2918 implants (1337 INICELL, 1581 TST) was included. The average follow up time was 2.1 (1.1-5.4) years for INICELL and 4.5 (1.3-5.9) years for TST implants (Thommen Medical AG, Switzerland). In the reported period 7 implants with INICELL (0.5%) and 23 TST implants (1.5%) failed. This difference was statistically significant. The analysis of cases treated and followed up in a single implantological office for 6 years confirmed the very good clinical outcome that was achieved with both used implant lines. Within the limitations of this retrospective analysis, the overall early failure rate of the hydrophilic implants was significantly lower than that of hydrophobic implants. The use of hydrophilic implants allows the clinician to obtain less early failures, hence the interest of an up-to-date surface for the daily work of an implant practice.

  13. Does antibiotic prophylaxis at implant placement decrease early implant failures? A Cochrane systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esposito, Marco; Grusovin, Maria Gabriella; Loli, Vasiliki; Coulthard, Paul; Worthington, Helen V

    2010-01-01

    Marco Esposito is the first author of two of the included studies; however, he was not involved in the quality assessment of these trials. This review is based on a Cochrane systematic review entitled 'Interventions for replacing missing teeth: antibiotics at dental implant placement to prevent complications' published in The Cochrane Library (see http://www.cochrane.org for more information). Cochrane systematic reviews are regularly updated to include new research, and in response to comments and criticisms from readers. If you wish to comment on this review, please send your comments to the Cochrane website or to Marco Esposito. The Cochrane Library should be consulted for the most recent version of the review. The results of a Cochrane Review can be interpreted differently, depending on people's perspectives and circumstances. Please consider the conclusions presented carefully. They are the opinions of the review authors, and are not necessarily shared by the Cochrane Collaboration. To assess the beneficial or harmful effects of systemic prophylactic antibiotics at dental implant placement versus no antibiotic/placebo administration and, if antibiotics are of benefit, to find which type, dosage and duration is the most effective. The Cochrane Oral Health Group's Trials Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched up to 2 June 2010 for randomised controlled clinical trials (RCTs) with a follow-up of at least 3 months comparing the administration of various prophylactic antibiotic regimens versus no antibiotics to patients undergoing dental implant placement. Outcome measures were prosthesis failures, implant failures, postoperative infections and adverse events (gastrointestinal, hypersensitivity, etc.). Screening of eligible studies, assessment of the methodological quality of the trials and data extraction were conducted in duplicate and independently by two review authors. Meta-analyses were

  14. Possibilities And Influencing Parameters For The Early Detection Of Sheet Metal Failure In Press Shop Operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerlach, Joerg; Kessler, Lutz; Paul, Udo; Roesen, Hartwig

    2007-01-01

    The concept of forming limit curves (FLC) is widely used in industrial practice. The required data should be delivered for typical material properties (measured on coils with properties in a range of +/- of the standard deviation from the mean production values) by the material suppliers. In particular it should be noted that its use for the validation of forming robustness providing forming limit curves for the variety of scattering in the mechanical properties is impossible. Therefore a forecast of the expected limit strains without expensive cost and time-consuming experiments is necessary. In the paper the quality of a regression analysis for determining forming limit curves based on tensile test results is presented and discussed.Owing to the specific definition of limit strains with FLCs following linear strain paths, the significance of this failure definition is limited. To consider nonlinear strain path effects, different methods are given in literature. One simple method is the concept of limit stresses. It should be noted that the determined value of the critical stress is dependent on the extrapolation of the tensile test curve. When the yield curve extrapolation is very similar to an exponential function, the definition of the critical stress value is very complicated due to the low slope of the hardening function at large strains.A new method to determine general failure behavior in sheet metal forming is the common use and interpretation of three criteria: onset on material instability (comparable with FLC concept), value of critical shear fracture and the value of ductile fracture. This method seems to be particularly successful for newly developed high strength steel grades in connection with more complex strain paths for some specific material elements. Nevertheless the identification of the different failure material parameters or functions will increase and the user has to learn with the interpretation of the numerical results

  15. Safety, danger and catastrophe inevitability in operation of safety-critical software algorithms: a possible new look at software safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Povyakalo, A.A.

    2000-01-01

    The paper provides basic definitions and describes the basic procedure of the Formal Qualitative Safety Analysis (FQSA) of critical software algorithms. The procedure is described by C-based pseudo-code. It uses the notion of weakest precondition and representation of a given critical algorithm by a Gurevich's Abstract State Mashine (GASM). For a given GASM and a given Catastrophe Condition the procedure results in a Catastrophe Inevitability Condition (it means that every sequence of algorithm steps lead to a catastrophe early or late), Danger Condition (it means that next step may lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable, but a catastrophe may be prevented yet), Safety Condition (it means that a next step can not lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable). The using of proposed procedure is illustrated by a simplest test example of algorithm. The FQSA provides a logical basis for PSA of critical algorithm. (author)

  16. Early Detection of Plant Equipment Failures: A Case Study in Just-in-Time Maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Kim, Kyusung; Bharadwaj, Raj M.

    2001-01-01

    The development and testing of a model-based fault detection system for electric motors is briefly presented. The fault detection system was developed using only motor nameplate information. The fault detection results presented utilize only motor voltage and current sensor information, minimizing the need for expensive or intrusive sensors. Dynamic recurrent neural networks are used to predict the input-output response of a three-phase induction motor while using an estimate of the motor speed signal. Multiresolution (or wavelet) signal-processing techniques are used in combination with more traditional methods to estimate fault features for use in winding insulation and motor mechanical and electromechanical failure detection

  17. Early Detection of Plant Equipment Failures: A Case Study in Just-in-Time Maintenance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Kim, Kyusung; Bharadwaj, Raj M.

    2001-06-17

    The development and testing of a model-based fault detection system for electric motors is briefly presented. The fault detection system was developed using only motor nameplate information. The fault detection results presented utilize only motor voltage and current sensor information, minimizing the need for expensive or intrusive sensors. Dynamic recurrent neural networks are used to predict the input-output response of a three-phase induction motor while using an estimate of the motor speed signal. Multiresolution (or wavelet) signal-processing techniques are used in combination with more traditional methods to estimate fault features for use in winding insulation and motor mechanical and electromechanical failure detection.

  18. [Early exercise training after exacerbation in patients with chronic respiratory failure].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Hiromitsu; Molleyres, Sandrine; Dousse, Nicolas; Contal, Olivier; Janssens, Jean-Paul

    2011-11-23

    Patients who suffered from an exacerbation of a chronic respiratory disorder are often very limited in terms of their exercise capacity because of severe dyspnea and amyotrophy of peripheral muscles. Early implementation of pulmonary rehabilitation may help these patients to avoid the complications of a prolonged bedridden period, and increase more rapidly their mobility. Early rehabilitation has become more frequent, but requires special skills from the care givers (chest therapists). Techniques which enhance muscular performance and motility of patients who are recovering from an exacerbation such as electromoystimulation or mobilisation under non-invasive ventilation, give encouraging results; their impact on length of hospital stay requires further studies.

  19. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: a clinical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayer, Ali; Ortega, Luis M

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare life-threatening autoimmune disease characterized by disseminated intravascular thrombosis resulting in multiorgan failure. Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), Google Scholar, PubMed (NLM), LISTA (EBSCO) and Web of Science have been searched. CAPS is due to antiphospholipid antibodies directed against a heterogeneous group of proteins that are associated with phospholipids. These autoantibodies activate endothelial cells, platelets, and immune cells, thereby promoting a proinflammatory and prothrombotic phenotype. Furthermore, antiphospholipid antibodies inhibit anticoagulants, impair fibrinolysis, and activate complements. Although CAPS can affect a variety of organs and tissues, the kidneys, lungs, central nervous system, heart, skin, liver, and gastrointestinal tract are most commonly affected. The systemic inflammatory response syndrome, likely to extensive tissue damage, accompanies CAPS. The most frequent renal manifestations are hypertension, proteinuria, hematuria, and acute renal failure.In the majority of patients with CAPS, a precipitating factor such as infection, surgery, or medication can be identified. Antiphospholipid antibodies such as lupus anticoagulant and antibodies against cardiolipin, β2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin are serological hallmark of CAPS. Laboratory tests often reveal antinuclear antibodies, thrombocytopenia, and anemia. Despite widespread intravascular coagulation, blood films reveal only a small number of schistocytes. In addition, severe thrombocytopenia is uncommon. Histologically, CAPS is characterized by acute thrombotic microangiopathy. CAPS must be distinguished from other forms of thrombotic microangiopathies such as hemolytic-uremic syndrome, thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and heparin-induced thrombocyt openia. CAPS is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Therefore, an aggressive multidisciplinary

  20. Radiographic pseudochondrocalcinosis in early failure of a cemented total knee replacement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kloen, P.; Burke, D. W.; Chew, F. S.; Mildrum, R.

    1998-01-01

    We observed a case of early-onset osteolysis in a cemented total knee arthroplasty. Preoperative radiographs suggested numerous radiopaque particles covering the polyethylene insert. Findings at the time of revision confirmed the presence of small radiopaque polymethylmethacrylate particles on the

  1. Early post transplantation renal allograft perfusion failure due to intimal dissection of the renal artery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khattab Omar

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Transplant renal artery stenosis (TRAS is a recognized and potentially curable cause of post transplant arterial hypertension, allograft dysfunction, and graft loss. It usually occurs 3 months to 2 years after transplantation, but early or later presentations are not uncommon. We present a case of renal artery narrowing due to intimal dissection that was managed medically.

  2. CATASTROPHIC DISRUPTION OF COMET ISON

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Milam, Stefanie N.; Charnley, Steven B. [Astrochemistry Laboratory, NASA GSFC, MS 690, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Coulson, Iain M. [Joint Astronomy Center, 660 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Sekanina, Zdenek [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Kracht, Rainer, E-mail: keane@ifa.hawaii.edu [Ostlandring 53, D-25335 Elmshorn, Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

    2016-11-10

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 μ m dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31–0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 ( r {sub h} = 0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60″ (>10{sup 5} km) in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 μ m image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing ∼5.2 × 10{sup 10} kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  3. Catastrophe Finance: An Emerging Discipline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsner, James B.; Burch, R. King; Jagger, Thomas H.

    2009-08-01

    While the recent disasters in the world's financial markets demonstrate that finance theory remains far from perfected, science also faces steep challenges in the quest to predict and manage the effects of natural disasters. Worldwide, as many as half a million people have died in disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and tropical cyclones since the turn of the 21st century [Wirtz, 2008]. Further, natural disasters can lead to extreme financial losses, and independent financial collapses can be exacerbated by natural disasters. In financial cost, 2008 was the second most expensive year on record for such catastrophes and for financial market declines. These extreme events in the natural and financial realms push the issue of risk management to the fore, expose the deficiencies of existing knowledge and practice, and suggest that progress requires further research and training at the graduate level.

  4. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  5. Catastrophic Disruption of Comet ISON

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Milam, Stefanie N.; Coulson, Iain M.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Sekanina, Zdenek; Kracht, Rainer; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J.; Charnley, Steven B.

    2016-01-01

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 microns dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31-0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 (rh?=?0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60? (greater than 10(exp 5) km in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 microns image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing approximately 5.2?×?10(exp 10) kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  6. Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doerell, P. E.

    1998-01-01

    Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO 2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO 2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO 2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO 2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO 2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO 2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

  7. Growth failure associated with early neglect: pilot comparison of neglected US children and international adoptees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Bradley S; Spratt, Eve G; Himes, John H; Condon, Doreen; Summer, Andrea; Papa, Carrie E; Brady, Kathleen T

    2015-01-01

    The long-lasting impact of different neglectful environments on growth in children is not well studied. Three groups of children, 3-10 years old, were recruited (n=60): previously institutionalized international adoptees living in stable home environments for at least 2 years (IA; n=15), children with a history of neglect born in the USA (USN; n=17), and controls (n=28). Children underwent physical examination, anthropometry, and collection of serum for growth parameters. Mean height standard deviation scores (SDS) were different (pneglected children. IGF-1 adjusted for age and weight SDS were different (pneglect groups. The degree of growth failure in height and HC in IAs was more severe than neglected US children. These findings may reflect differences between the impact of chronic and intermittent deprivation on the growth hormone system.

  8. Prognostic influence of clinical stage for distant failure in conservation treatment of early breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janjan, N.A.; Murray, K.J.; Walker, A.P.; Derus, S.B.; Komaki, R.U.; Cox, J.D.; Wilson, J.F.

    1987-01-01

    One-hundred twelve patients with clinical stage I-II mammary carcinoma treated with radiation therapy following breast-conserving surgery from 1975 through 1985 were evaluated. Median follow-up was 21 months (range, 2-80 months). This study demonstrates the importance of evaluating patients on the basis of tumor and axillary node findings rather than by clinical stage alone. In the authors' series, all T1 patients with positive axillary lymph nodes achieved the same excellent local and distant control as node-negative T1 and T2 patients. Distant failure occurred in 70% of T2 N1 patients despite systemic chemotherapy given to the majority of patients. The significance of these data regarding future trials are discussed

  9. EARLY-ESLI study: Long-term experience with eslicarbazepine acetate after first monotherapy failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villanueva, V; Bermejo, P; Montoya, J; Toledo, M; Gómez-Ibáñez, A; Garcés, M; Vilella, L; López-González, F J; Rodriguez-Osorio, X; Campos, D; Martínez, P; Giner, P; Zurita, J; Rodríguez-Uranga, J; Ojeda, J; Mauri, J A; Camacho, J L; Ruiz-Giménez, J; Poza, J J; Massot-Tarrús, A; Galiano, M L; Bonet, M

    2017-09-01

    Evaluate real-life experience with eslicarbazepine acetate (ESL) after first monotherapy failure in a large series of patients with focal epilepsy. Multicentre, retrospective, 1-year, observational study in patients older than 18 years, with focal epilepsy, who had failed first antiepileptic drug monotherapy and who received ESL. Data from clinical records were analysed at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months to assess effectiveness and tolerability. Eslicarbazepine acetate was initiated in 253 patients. The 1-year retention rate was 92.9%, and the final median dose of ESL was 800 mg. At 12 months, 62.3% of patients had been seizure free for 6 months; 37.3% had been seizure free for 1 year. During follow-up, 31.6% of the patients reported ESL-related adverse events (AEs), most commonly somnolence (8.7%) and dizziness (5.1%), and 3.6% discontinued due to AEs. Hyponatraemia was observed in seven patients (2.8%). After starting ESL, 137 patients (54.2%) withdrew the prior monotherapy and converted to ESL monotherapy; 75.9% were seizure free, 87.6% were responders, 4.4% worsened, and 23.4% reported ESL-related AEs. Use of ESL after first monotherapy failure was associated with an optimal seizure control and tolerability profile. Over half of patients were converted to ESL monotherapy during follow-up. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Using recurrent neural network models for early detection of heart failure onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Edward; Schuetz, Andy; Stewart, Walter F; Sun, Jimeng

    2017-03-01

    We explored whether use of deep learning to model temporal relations among events in electronic health records (EHRs) would improve model performance in predicting initial diagnosis of heart failure (HF) compared to conventional methods that ignore temporality. Data were from a health system's EHR on 3884 incident HF cases and 28 903 controls, identified as primary care patients, between May 16, 2000, and May 23, 2013. Recurrent neural network (RNN) models using gated recurrent units (GRUs) were adapted to detect relations among time-stamped events (eg, disease diagnosis, medication orders, procedure orders, etc.) with a 12- to 18-month observation window of cases and controls. Model performance metrics were compared to regularized logistic regression, neural network, support vector machine, and K-nearest neighbor classifier approaches. Using a 12-month observation window, the area under the curve (AUC) for the RNN model was 0.777, compared to AUCs for logistic regression (0.747), multilayer perceptron (MLP) with 1 hidden layer (0.765), support vector machine (SVM) (0.743), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) (0.730). When using an 18-month observation window, the AUC for the RNN model increased to 0.883 and was significantly higher than the 0.834 AUC for the best of the baseline methods (MLP). Deep learning models adapted to leverage temporal relations appear to improve performance of models for detection of incident heart failure with a short observation window of 12-18 months. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association.

  11. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  12. Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valeca, Serban Constantin

    2002-01-01

    The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

  13. Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D

    2016-01-01

    that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...

  14. Signs for early diagnosis of heart failure in primary health care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devroey D

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Dirk Devroey1,2, Viviane Van Casteren11Scientific Institute of Public Health, Unit of Epidemiology, Brussels, Belgium; 2Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB, Department of Family Medicine, Brussels, BelgiumObjective: The current guidelines for the diagnosis of heart failure (HF are based on studies of hospital-based patients. The aim of this study is to describe the symptoms, clinical signs, and diagnostic procedures confirming the diagnosis of HF in primary health care.Materials/subjects and methods: Data were prospectively collected during a 2-year period by a nationwide network of sentinel practices. All adult patients without known HF, for which the diagnosis of HF was clinically suspected for the first time, were registered. When diagnosed, HF was confirmed after 1 month.Results: 754 patients with a suspicion of HF were recorded. The diagnosis of HF was confirmed for 74% of the patients. The average age of the patients with confirmed HF was 77.7 years, and for those without HF 75.6 years (P = 0.018. From a logistic regression, breathlessness on exercise (P < 0.001, limitations of physical activity (P = 0.003, and orthopnea (P = 0.040 were the symptoms most associated with HF. The clinical signs most associated with HF, were pulmonary rales (P < 0.001, peripheral edema (P < 0.001, and raised jugular venous pressure (P = 0.039. An electrocardiogram was performed in 75% of the cases, blood analyses in 68%, echocardiogram in 63%, chest X-ray in 61%, and determination of natriuretic peptides in 11% of the cases.Conclusion: Many clinical signs may occur in patients with HF. However, the occurrence of peripheral edema, breathlessness on exercise, or pulmonary rales, are highly suggestive for HF when diagnosed in primary health care, as is the case in hospital-admitted patients. The diagnosis of HF was often left unconfirmed by an echocardiogram and/or an electrocardiogram.Keywords: heart failure, primary health care, diagnostic clinical signs

  15. Prevention of catastrophic failure in pressure vessels and pipings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rintamaa, R.; Wallin, K.; Ikonen, K.; Toerroenen, K.; Talja, H.; Keinaenen, H.; Saarenheimo, A.; Nilsson, F.; Sarkimo, M.; Waestberg, S.; Debel, C.

    1989-01-01

    The fracture resistance and integrity of pressure-loaded components have been assessed in a Nordic research programme. Experiments were performed to validate the computational fracture assessment analysis. Two tests were also conducted on a large decommissioned pressure vessel from an oil refinery plant. Different fracture assessment methods were developed and subsequently applied to the tested components. Interlaboratory round robin programmes with the participation of several laboratories were arranged to examine elastic-plastic finit element calculations and fracture mechanics testing. The transferability of material parameters derived from small specimens with simple crack geometries to more realistic crack geometries in real components has been verified. (author)

  16. The failure of anxiolytic therapies in early clinical trials: what needs to be done.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Adam Michael; Nguyen, Michael; Poudel, Manoj K; Warnick, Jason E; Echevarria, David J; Beaton, Elliott A; Song, Cai; Kalueff, Allan V

    2015-04-01

    Anxiety spectrum disorders (ASDs) are highly prevalent psychiatric illnesses that affect millions of people worldwide. Strongly associated with stress, common ASDs include generalized anxiety disorder, panic, social anxiety, phobias and drug-abuse-related anxiety. In addition to ASDs, several other prevalent psychiatric illnesses represent trauma/stressor-related disorders, such as post-traumatic stress disorder and acute stress disorder. Anxiolytic drugs, commonly prescribed to treat ASDs and trauma/stressor-related disorders, form a highly heterogenous group, modulating multiple neurotransmitters and physiological mechanisms. However, overt individual differences in efficacy and the potential for serious side-effects (including addiction and drug interaction) indicate a need for further drug development. Yet, over the past 50 years, there has been relatively little progress in the development of novel anxiolytic medications, especially when promising candidate drugs often fail in early clinical trials. Herein, the authors present recommendations of the Task Force on Anxiolytic Drugs of the International Stress and Behavior Society on how to improve anxiolytic drug discovery. These recommendations cover a wide spectrum of aspects, ranging from methodological improvements to conceptual insights and innovation. In order to improve the success of anxiolytic drugs in early clinical trials, the goals of preclinical trials may need to be adjusted from a clinical perspective and better synchronized with those of clinical studies. Indeed, it is important to realize that the strategic goals and approaches must be similar if we want to have a smoother transition between phases.

  17. Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK) early stage graft failure in eyes with preexisting glaucoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treder, Maximilian; Alnawaiseh, Maged; Eter, Nicole

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate the effect of a preexisting glaucoma on the early postoperative outcome of a descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK). All patients who underwent DMEK surgery at the Department of Ophthalmology of the University of Muenster with a follow-up of at least 3 months (90d) were included in this study. The best corrected distance visual acuity (BCDVA), the intraocular pressure (IOD), the rate of re-keratoplasty and the rebubbling rate were inter alia recorded. The results of patients with (group 1) and without a preexisting glaucoma (group 2) were compared. 74 eyes of 59 patients with a mean follow-up of 152 ± 70 days were included. 65 eyes were in group 1 and 9 eyes in group 2. The BCDVA significantly improved in both groups after surgery (p glaucoma compared to patients with a preexisting glaucoma. In the early stage outcome of DMEK no significant impact of a preexisting glaucoma was found.

  18. Predicting Failure in Early Acute Prosthetic Joint Infection Treated With Debridement, Antibiotics, and Implant Retention: External Validation of the KLIC Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löwik, Claudia A M; Jutte, Paul C; Tornero, Eduard; Ploegmakers, Joris J W; Knobben, Bas A S; de Vries, Astrid J; Zijlstra, Wierd P; Dijkstra, Baukje; Soriano, Alex; Wouthuyzen-Bakker, Marjan

    2018-03-27

    Debridement, antibiotics, and implant retention (DAIR) is a widely used treatment modality for early acute prosthetic joint infection (PJI). A preoperative risk score was previously designed for predicting DAIR failure, consisting of chronic renal failure (K), liver cirrhosis (L), index surgery (I), cemented prosthesis (C), and C-reactive protein >115 mg/L (KLIC). The aim of this study was to validate the KLIC score in an external cohort. We retrospectively evaluated patients with early acute PJI treated with DAIR between 2006 and 2016 in 3 Dutch hospitals. Early acute PJI was defined as infection-related death within 60 days after debridement. A total of 386 patients were included. Failure occurred in 148 patients (38.3%). Patients with KLIC scores of ≤2, 2.5-3.5, 4-5, 5.5-6.5, and ≥7 had failure rates of 27.9%, 37.1%, 49.3%, 54.5%, and 85.7%, respectively (P < .001). The receiver-operating characteristic curve showed an area under the curve of 0.64 (95% confidence interval 0.59-0.69). A KLIC score higher than 6 points showed a specificity of 97.9%. The KLIC score is a relatively good preoperative risk score for DAIR failure in patients with early acute PJI and appears to be most useful in clinical practice for patients with low or high KLIC scores. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Investigation of Effectiveness of Some Vibration-Based Techniques in Early Detection of Real-Time Fatigue Failure in Gears

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan Ozturk

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Bending fatigue crack is a dangerous and insidious mode of failure in gears. As it produces no debris in its early stages, it gives little warning during its progression, and usually results in either immediate loss of serviceability or greatly reduced power transmitting capacity. This paper presents the applications of vibration-based techniques (i.e. conventional time and frequency domain analysis, cepstrum, and continuous wavelet transform to real gear vibrations in the early detection, diagnosis and advancement monitoring of a real tooth fatigue crack and compares their detection and diagnostic capabilities on the basis of experimental results. Gear fatigue damage is achieved under heavy-loading conditions and the gearbox is allowed to run until the gears suffer badly from complete tooth breakage. It has been found that the initiation and progression of fatigue crack cannot be easily detected by conventional time and frequency domain approaches until the fault is significantly developed. On the contrary, the wavelet transform is quite sensitive to any change in gear vibration and reveals fault features earlier than other methods considered.

  20. Slippage theory and the flanker paradigm: an early-selection account of selective attention failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspelin, Nicholas; Ruthruff, Eric; Jung, Kyunghun

    2014-06-01

    In the flanker paradigm, participants identify a target letter while attempting to ignore an irrelevant flanker. When the identity of this flanker mismatches the target, target identification is slowed (called the flanker compatibility effect). Interestingly, reducing the array set size greatly increases flanker compatibility effects. This finding inspired 2 prominent explanations: perceptual load (mandatory capacity spillover) and dilution (visual interference). However, an alternative explanation, based on early selection theory and attention capture research, can also explain the data pattern. According to this "slippage" account, observers sometimes accidentally allocate spatial attention to the flanker (see Lachter, Forster, & Ruthruff, 2004), especially when the flanker has the property used to find the target (cf. contingent capture). In Experiments 1 through 4, deterring slippage to the flanker nearly eliminated flanker compatibility effects, even at the low set size. In Experiment 5, promoting slippage to the flanker dramatically enhanced compatibility effects, even at the high set size. Thus, slippage strongly modulates flanker effects and can, by itself, readily explain the impact of set size. The perceptual load and dilution accounts are, at best, incomplete, and, at worst, not needed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  1. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome: Management Challenges ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This was associated with history of progressively worsening memory loss and confusion associated with incoordination of hands. She also reported to have had a productive cough of 3 months which was episodic. The patient was admitted and developed multiple organ failure from lungs, heart and the kidney during ...

  2. 'The star called Wormwood': the cause and effect of the Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knorre, H.

    1992-01-01

    The explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power station in 1986 astounded the world. It was shocking not just because of the technical failure - unfortunately such things happen from time to time - but as a social and political failure. The Chernobyl catastrophe undermined and exposed the false, vicious and inhumane Soviet totalitarian system. The Chernobyl explosion initiated the disintegration of the corrupt Communist regime - a regime which had been deemed unshakeable in the USSR. (author)

  3. Probability elicitation to inform early health economic evaluations of new medical technologies: a case study in heart failure disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qi; Postmus, Douwe; Hillege, Hans L; Buskens, Erik

    2013-06-01

    Early estimates of the commercial headroom available to a new medical device can assist producers of health technology in making appropriate product investment decisions. The purpose of this study was to illustrate how this quantity can be captured probabilistically by combining probability elicitation with early health economic modeling. The technology considered was a novel point-of-care testing device in heart failure disease management. First, we developed a continuous-time Markov model to represent the patients' disease progression under the current care setting. Next, we identified the model parameters that are likely to change after the introduction of the new device and interviewed three cardiologists to capture the probability distributions of these parameters. Finally, we obtained the probability distribution of the commercial headroom available per measurement by propagating the uncertainty in the model inputs to uncertainty in modeled outcomes. For a willingness-to-pay value of €10,000 per life-year, the median headroom available per measurement was €1.64 (interquartile range €0.05-€3.16) when the measurement frequency was assumed to be daily. In the subsequently conducted sensitivity analysis, this median value increased to a maximum of €57.70 for different combinations of the willingness-to-pay threshold and the measurement frequency. Probability elicitation can successfully be combined with early health economic modeling to obtain the probability distribution of the headroom available to a new medical technology. Subsequently feeding this distribution into a product investment evaluation method enables stakeholders to make more informed decisions regarding to which markets a currently available product prototype should be targeted. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. Very early screening for sleep-disordered breathing in acute coronary syndrome in patients without acute heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Broecke, Sandra; Jobard, Olivier; Montalescot, Gilles; Bruyneel, Marie; Ninane, Vincent; Arnulf, Isabelle; Similowski, Thomas; Attali, Valérie

    2014-12-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is frequently associated with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Screening of sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) has not been previously evaluated in ACS within 72 h in intensive care settings and its management could potentially enhance patients' prognosis. This pilot study assessed the feasibility of SDB screening at the early phase of ACS. All consecutive patients admitted to the coronary care unit (CCU) for ACS without acute heart failure underwent one overnight-attended polysomnography (PSG) within 72 h after admission. A telemonitoring (TM) system was set up to remotely monitor the signals and repair faulty sensors. The 27 recordings were analyzed as respiratory polygraphy (RP) and as PSG, and the results were compared. The TM system allowed successful intervention in 48% of recordings, resulting in excellent quality PSG for 89% of cases. The prevalence of SDB [apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) ≥ 15/h] was 82% and mainly consisted of central SDB and periodic breathing, except three patients with OSA. Compared with PSG, RP underestimated AHI, probably due to the poor sleep efficiency, reduction of slow-wave sleep, and alteration of rapid eye movement sleep. An early SDB screening by remote-attended PSG is feasible in ACS patients shortly after admission to CCU. The TM enhanced the quality of PSG. A high prevalence of central SDB was noticed, for which the etiology remains unknown. Further large-scale studies are needed to determine whether central SDB is an incidental finding in early ACS and whether the presence and severity of SDB have a prognostic impact. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Bilateral Central Retinal Artery Occlusions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven S. Saraf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A previously healthy 22-year-old African American woman presented with bilateral vision loss associated with headache. Her ocular examination was significant for bilateral retinal arterial “boxcarring,” retinal whitening, retinal hemorrhages, and cherry red spots. She was diagnosed with bilateral central retinal artery occlusions and was hospitalized due to concomitant diagnosis of stroke and hypercoagulable state. She was also found to be in heart failure and kidney failure. Rheumatology was consulted and she was diagnosed with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in association with systemic lupus erythematosus. Approximately 7 months after presentation, the patient’s vision improved and remained stable at 20/200 and 20/80.

  6. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (Ronald Asherson syndrome) and obstetric pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makatsariya, Alexander D; Khizroeva, Jamilya; Bitsadze, Viktoriya O

    2018-05-24

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is an uncommon, often fatal, variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) that results in a widespread coagulopathy and high titres of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) and affects predominantly small vessels supplying organs with the development of multiorgan failure. It remains unclear why some patients develop the typical clinical picture of APS (thrombosis of large vessels), whereas others show the development of progressive microthrombosis, which the authors called "thrombotic storm" and multiple organ failure, that is, CAPS. Since 2001-2016, we discovered 17 patients with CAPS development. CAPS is life-threatening condition, but optimal treatment for CAPS is not developed yet and the mortality rate is as high as 30%-40%.

  7. North Kona slump: Submarine flank failure during the early(?) tholeiitic shield stage of Hualalai Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipman, P.W.; Coombs, M.L.

    2006-01-01

    vesicles during flowage downslope after eruption in shallow water. The glass volatile compositions suggest that the tholeiitic lavas that drape the slump blocks were erupted either (1) early during shield-stage tholeiitic volcanism prior to emergence of a large subaerial edifice, or alternatively (2) from submarine radial vents during subaerial shield-building. Because no radial vents have been documented on land or underwater for the unbuttressed flanks of any Hawaii volcano, alternative (1) is favored. In comparison to other well-documented Hawaiian slumps and landslides, North Kona structures suggest a more incipient slump event, with smaller down-slope motions and lateral displacements.

  8. Early onset hyperuricemia is a prognostic marker for kidney graft failure: Propensity score matching analysis in a Korean multicenter cohort.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miyeun Han

    Full Text Available It remains inconclusive whether hyperuricemia is a true risk factor for kidney graft failure. In the current study, we investigated the association of hyperuricemia and graft outcome. We performed a multi-center cohort study that included 2620 kidney transplant recipients. The patients were classified as either normouricemic or hyperuricemic at 3 months after transplantation. Hyperuricemia was defined as a serum uric acid level ≥ 7.0 mg/dL in males or ≥ 6.0 mg/dL in females or based on the use of urate-lowering medications. The two groups were compared before and after propensity score matching. A total of 657 (25.1% patients were classified as hyperuricemic. The proportion of hyperuricemic patients increased over time, reaching 44.2% of the total cohort at 5 years after transplantation. Estimated glomerular filtration rate and donor type were independently associated with hyperuricemia. Hyperuricemia was associated with graft loss according to multiple Cox regression analysis before propensity score matching (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.14-2.13, P = 0.005 as well as after matching (HR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.13-2.42, p = 0.010. Cox regression models using time-varying hyperuricemia or marginal structural models adjusted with time-varying eGFR also demonstrated significant hazards of hyperuricemia for graft loss. Cardiovascular events and recipient survival were not associated with hyperuricemia. Overall, hyperuricemia, especially early onset after transplantation, showed an increased risk for graft failure. Further studies are warranted to determine whether lowering serum uric acid levels would be beneficial to graft survival.

  9. Homozygous EEF1A2 mutation causes dilated cardiomyopathy, failure to thrive, global developmental delay, epilepsy and early death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Siqi; Smith, Laura L; Padilla-Lopez, Sergio R; Guida, Brandon S; Blume, Elizabeth; Shi, Jiahai; Morton, Sarah U; Brownstein, Catherine A; Beggs, Alan H; Kruer, Michael C; Agrawal, Pankaj B

    2017-09-15

    Eukaryotic elongation factor 1A (EEF1A), is encoded by two distinct isoforms, EEF1A1 and EEF1A2; whereas EEF1A1 is expressed almost ubiquitously, EEF1A2 expression is limited such that it is only detectable in skeletal muscle, heart, brain and spinal cord. Currently, the role of EEF1A2 in normal cardiac development and function is unclear. There have been several reports linking de novo dominant EEF1A2 mutations to neurological issues in humans. We report a pair of siblings carrying a homozygous missense mutation p.P333L in EEF1A2 who exhibited global developmental delay, failure to thrive, dilated cardiomyopathy and epilepsy, ultimately leading to death in early childhood. A third sibling also died of a similar presentation, but DNA was unavailable to confirm the mutation. Functional genomic analysis was performed in S. cerevisiae and zebrafish. In S. cerevisiae, there was no evidence for a dominant-negative effect. Previously identified putative de novo mutations failed to complement yeast strains lacking the EEF1A ortholog showing a major growth defect. In contrast, the introduction of the mutation seen in our family led to a milder growth defect. To evaluate its function in zebrafish, we knocked down eef1a2 expression using translation blocking and splice-site interfering morpholinos. EEF1A2-deficient zebrafish had skeletal muscle weakness, cardiac failure and small heads. Human EEF1A2 wild-type mRNA successfully rescued the morphant phenotype, but mutant RNA did not. Overall, EEF1A2 appears to be critical for normal heart function in humans, and its deficiency results in clinical abnormalities in neurologic function as well as in skeletal and cardiac muscle defects. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  11. Pricing catastrophic bonds for earthquakes in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Cabrera, Brenda López

    2006-01-01

    After the occurrence of a natural disaster, the reconstruction can be financed with catastrophic bonds (CAT bonds) or reinsurance. For insurers, reinsurers and other corporations CAT bonds provide multi year protection without the credit risk present in reinsurance. For investors CAT bonds offer attractive returns and reduction of portfolio risk, since CAT bonds defaults are uncorrelated with defaults of other securities. As the study of natural catastrophe models plays an important role in t...

  12. PARAMETRIC INSURANCE COVER FOR NATURAL CATASTROPHE RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serghei Margulescu

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available With economic losses of over USD 370 bn caused by 325 catastrophic events, 2011 ranks as the worst ever year in terms of costs to society due to natural catastrophes and man-made disasters. Inthe same time, 2011 is the second most expensive year in the history for the insurance industry, with insured losses from catastrophic events amounting to USD 116 bn. Both the high level of damages and insured losses, as well as the unprecedented gap between the two values, made insurers and reinsurers worldwide to understand that some risks had so far been underestimated and they have to be better integrated in the catastrophes modelling.On the other hand, governments have to protect themselves against the financial impact of natural catastrophes and new forms of cooperation between the public and private sectors can help countries finance disaster risks. Viewed in a country’s wider risk management context, the purchase of parametric insurance cover, which transfers natural catastrophe risk to the private sector using an index- based trigger, is a necessary shift towards a pre-emptive risk management strategy. This kind of approach can be pursued by central governments or at the level of provincial or municipal governments, and a number of case studies included in the publication “Closing the financial gap” by Swiss Re (2011 illustrates how new forms of parametric insurance can help countries finance disaster risks.

  13. Surveillance and monitoring experiences of chemical water-steam cycle in combined-cycle power plants (CCCs in Spanish acronyms) for early diagnosis of failures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santaolalla losada, E.

    2010-01-01

    In the present work is made a brief comparative review of the treatments effected in water of the cycle, their purpose, types, monitoring and tracking. Moreover, are described the most important failure mechanisms that can be related to the chemistry of cycle with the aim to establish monitoring guidelines to increase the reliability of the power plant and enable an early diagnosis. (Author)

  14. The added value of mifepristone to non-surgical treatment regimens for uterine evacuation in case of early pregnancy failure: a systematic review of the literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, J. van den; Gordon, B.B.; Snijders, M.P.M.L.; Vandenbussche, F.P.H.A.; Coppus, S.F.P.J.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE(S): Early pregnancy failure (EPF) is a common complication of pregnancy. Surgical intervention carries a risk of complications and, therefore, medical treatment appears to be a safe alternative. Unfortunately, the current medical treatment with misoprostol alone has complete evacuation

  15. Creating catastrophes in the classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Thommy

    2013-04-01

    Buildings, infrastructure and human life are being destroyed by wind and landslides. To interest and motivate pupils and to help them understand abstract knowledge, a practical experiment could be useful. These experiments will show why strong winds circulate around tropical cyclones and how fluvial geological processes affect nature and communities. The experiments are easy to set up and the equipment is not expensive. Experiment 1: Exogenic processes of water are often slow processes. This experiment will simulate water processes that can take thousands of years, in less than 40 minutes. This experiment can be presented for and understood by pupils at all levels. Letting the pupils build up the scenery will make them more curious about the course of events. During that time they will see the geomorphological genesis of landforms such as landslides, sandurs, deltas, canyons sedimentations, selective erosions. Placing small houses, bridges etc. we can lead to discussions about natural catastrophes and community planning. Material needed for the experiment is a water bucket, erosion gutter, clay (simulating rock), sand and smaller pebbles (simulating the soil), houses of "Monopoly" size and tubes. By using a table with wheels it is easy to reuse the result for other lessons. Installation of a pump can make the experiment into a closed loop system. This installation can be used for presentations outside the classroom. Experiment 2: The Coriolis Effect explains why the wind (moving objects) deflects when moving. In the northern hemisphere the deflection is clockwise and anti-clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This abstract effect is often hard for upper secondary pupils to understand. This experiment will show the effect and thus make the theory real and visible. Material needed for this experiment is a bucket, pipes, a string. At my school we had cooperation with pupils from the Industrial Technology programme who made a copper pipe construction. During the

  16. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

    2002-03-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  17. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg

    2002-01-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  18. Non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in racing Thoroughbreds at the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, T C; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Wright, J; Al-Alawneh, J I

    2018-04-19

    Reports of fractures in racehorses have predominantly focused on catastrophic injuries, and there is limited data identifying the location and incidence of fractures that did not result in a fatal outcome. To describe the nature and the incidence of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing at the Hong Kong Jockey Club (HKJC) over seven racing seasons. Retrospective cohort study. Data of fractures sustained in horses while racing and of race characteristics were extracted from the HKJC Veterinary Management Information System (VMIS) and Racing Information System (RIS) respectively. The fracture event was determined from the first clinical entry for each specific injury. The incidence rates of non-catastrophic and catastrophic fractures were calculated per 1000 racing starts for racetrack, age, racing season, sex and trainer. 179 first fracture events occurred in 64,807 racing starts. The incidence rate of non-catastrophic fractures was 2.2 per 1000 racing starts and of catastrophic fractures was 0.6 per 1000 racing starts. Fractures of the proximal sesamoid bones represented 55% of all catastrophic fractures while the most common non-catastrophic fractures involved the carpus and the first phalanx. Significant associations were detected between the incidence of non-catastrophic fractures and sex, trainer and racing season. The first fracture event was used to calculate the incidence rate in this study and may have resulted in underestimation of the true incidence rate of fractures in this population. However, given the low number of recorded fracture events compared to the size of the study population, this underestimation is likely to be small. There were 3.6 times as many non-catastrophic fractures as catastrophic fractures in Thoroughbreds racing in Hong Kong between 2004 and 2011. Non-catastrophic fractures interfere with race training schedules and may predispose to catastrophic fracture. Future analytical studies on non-catastrophic

  19. The Chernobyl accident, a catastrophe or an eye-opener?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baarli, J.

    1989-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident is reviewed as to its cause, the way it was handled locally and the consequenses from released radioactivity. It is emphasized that the exposure from the released radioactivity, as to the effective dose equivalent and the committed dose equivalent is small and comparable with the dose equivalent from natural ionizing radiation near the accident, and only a few per cent of this value at more remote distances. It is concluded that the accident probably has been one of the greatest psychological catastrophes that we so far has experienced, but not so when referring to early deaths or radiation damage directly to individuals

  20. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2016-07-10

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  1. DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-01-01

    2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

  2. Prostate cancer volume adds significantly to prostate-specific antigen in the prediction of early biochemical failure after external beam radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Amico, Anthony V.; Propert, Kathleen J.

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: A new clinical pretreatment quantity that closely approximates the true prostate cancer volume is defined. Methods and Materials: The cancer-specific prostate-specific antigen (PSA), PSA density, prostate cancer volume (V Ca ), and the volume fraction of the gland involved with carcinoma (V Ca fx) were calculated for 227 prostate cancer patients managed definitively with external beam radiation therapy. 1. PSA density PSA/ultrasound prostate gland volume 2. Cancer-specific PSA = PSA - [PSA from benign epithelial tissue] 3. V Ca = Cancer-specific PSA/[PSA in serum per cm 3 of cancer] 4. V Ca fx = V Ca /ultrasound prostate gland volume A Cox multiple regression analysis was used to test whether any of these-clinical pretreatment parameters added significantly to PSA in predicting early postradiation PSA failure. Results: The prostate cancer volume (p = 0.039) and the volume fraction of the gland involved by carcinoma (p = 0.035) significantly added to the PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. Conversely, the PSA density and the cancer-specific PSA did not add significantly (p > 0.05) to PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. The 20-month actuarial PSA failure-free rates for patients with calculated tumor volumes of ≤0.5 cm 3 , 0.5-4.0 cm 3 , and >4.0 cm 3 were 92, 80, and 47%, respectively (p = 0.00004). Conclusion: The volume of prostate cancer (V Ca ) and the resulting volume fraction of cancer both added significantly to PSA in their ability to predict for early postradiation PSA failure. These new parameters may be used to select patients in prospective randomized trials that examine the efficacy of combining radiation and androgen ablative therapy in patients with clinically localized disease, who are at high risk for early postradiation PSA failure

  3. A simplified early-warning system for imminent landslide prediction based on failure index fragility curves developed through numerical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ozturk

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Early-warning systems (EWSs are crucial to reduce the risk of landslide, especially where the structural measures are not fully capable of preventing the devastating impact of such an event. Furthermore, designing and successfully implementing a complete landslide EWS is a highly complex task. The main technical challenges are linked to the definition of heterogeneous material properties (geotechnical and geomechanical parameters as well as a variety of the triggering factors. In addition, real-time data processing creates a significant complexity, since data collection and numerical models for risk assessment are time consuming tasks. Therefore, uncertainties in the physical properties of a landslide together with the data management represent the two crucial deficiencies in an efficient landslide EWS. Within this study the application is explored of the concept of fragility curves to landslides; fragility curves are widely used to simulate systems response to natural hazards, i.e. floods or earthquakes. The application of fragility curves to landslide risk assessment is believed to simplify emergency risk assessment; even though it cannot substitute detailed analysis during peace-time. A simplified risk assessment technique can remove some of the unclear features and decrease data processing time. The method is based on synthetic samples which are used to define the approximate failure thresholds for landslides, taking into account the materials and the piezometric levels. The results are presented in charts. The method presented in this paper, which is called failure index fragility curve (FIFC, allows assessment of the actual real-time risk in a case study that is based on the most appropriate FIFC. The application of an FIFC to a real case is presented as an example. This method to assess the landslide risk is another step towards a more integrated dynamic approach to a potential landslide prevention system. Even if it does not define

  4. The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voight, Barry

    1990-12-01

    This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

  5. [Bioethics in catastrophe situations such as earthquakes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, C Francisco Javier

    2012-01-01

    A catastrophe of the magnitude of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Chile not long ago, forces us to raise some questions that we will try to answer from a philosophical, ethical and responsibility viewpoints. An analysis of the basic principles of bioethics is also justified. A natural catastrophe is not, by itself, moral or immoral, fair or unfair. However, its consequences could certainly be regarded as such, depending on whether they could have been prevented or mitigated. We will identify those individuals, who have the ethical responsibility to attend the victims and the ethical principles that must guide the tasks of healthcare and psychological support teams. The minimal indispensable actions to obtain an adequate social and legal protection of vulnerable people, must be defined according to international guidelines. These reflections are intended to improve the responsibility of the State and all the community, to efficiently prevent and repair the material and psychological consequences of such a catastrophe.

  6. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Go, Ellen J L; O'Neil, Kathleen M

    2017-09-01

    To review the difficult syndrome of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, emphasizing new developments in the diagnosis, pathogenesis and treatment. Few recent publications directly address pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Most articles are case reports or are data from adult and pediatric registries. The major factors contributing to most pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome include infection and the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies, but complement activation also is important in creating diffuse thrombosis in the microcirculation. Treatment of the acute emergency requires anticoagulation, suppression of the hyperinflammatory state and elimination of the triggering infection. Inhibition of complement activation appears to improve outcome in limited studies, and suppression of antiphospholipid antibody formation may be important in long-term management. CAPS, an antibody-mediated diffuse thrombotic disease of microvasculature, is rare in childhood but has high mortality (33-50%). It requires prompt recognition and aggressive multimodality treatment, including anticoagulation, anti-inflammatory therapy and elimination of inciting infection and pathogenic autoantibodies.

  7. Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

  8. Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

    2018-02-01

    We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

  9. Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Grant

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

  10. Early serum creatinine changes and outcomes in patients admitted for acute heart failure: the cardio-renal syndrome revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Núñez, Julio; Garcia, Sergio; Núñez, Eduardo; Bonanad, Clara; Bodí, Vicent; Miñana, Gema; Santas, Enrique; Escribano, David; Bayes-Genis, Antonio; Pascual-Figal, Domingo; Chorro, Francisco J; Sanchis, Juan

    2017-08-01

    The changes in renal function that occurred in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) are prevalent, and have multifactorial etiology and dissimilar prognosis. To what extent the prognostic role of such changes may vary according to the presence of renal insufficiency at admission is not clear. Accordingly, we sought to determine whether early creatinine changes (ΔCr) (admission to 48-72 hours) had an effect on 1-year mortality relative to the presence of renal insufficiency at admission. We included 705 consecutive patients admitted with the diagnosis of ADHF. Admission renal insufficiency was defined as serum creatinine ≥1.4mg/dl (A-RI cr ) or estimated glomerular filtration rate renal insufficiency (24.7% and 42.8% for A-RIcr and A-RIGFR, respectively) had higher prevalence of extreme values in ΔCr in either direction (increasing/decreasing). At 1-year follow-up, 114 (16.2%) deaths were registered. The multivariable analysis showed a significant interaction between admission renal insufficiency and ΔCr ( p=0.004 and p=0.019 for A-RIcr and A-RIGFR, respectively). In the presence of renal insufficiency, the continuum of ΔCr followed a positive and almost linear relationship with mortality risk. Conversely, in patients without renal insufficiency, those changes adopted a 'J-shape' trajectory with increased mortality at both ends of the curve distribution. In patients with ADHF the effect of ΔCr on 1-year mortality varied according to its magnitude and the presence of admission renal insufficiency. There was a graded-association with mortality when renal insufficiency was present on admission.

  11. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. Case report and literature review

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Carpio-Orantes, Luis; Martínez-Anaya, Chantall Citlally; Bonilla-Casas, Elías

    2017-01-01

    The present document is the report of a case of a very rare clinical entity, which presents with acute multiorganic failure after a thrombotic storm related to antiphospholipid antibodies, the so-called catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, which began as a recurrent picture of mesenteric thrombosis, with a previous history of venous insufficiency and distal ulcers probably associated with an unidentified antiphospholipid; deserving management in intensive care and the consultation by the world expert, Dr. Ricard Cervera who confirmed the diagnosis and recommend treating as such entity, the patient's evolution was satisfactory so far. Final recommendations for diagnosis and current treatment options such as rituximab or eculizumab are made. The present case was added to the international registry that currently houses around 500 cases worldwide (International CAPS Registry). Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud

  12. Can baseline ultrasound results help to predict failure to achieve DAS28 remission after 1 year of tight control treatment in early RA patients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ten Cate, D F; Jacobs, J W G; Swen, W A A; Hazes, J M W; de Jager, M H; Basoski, N M; Haagsma, C J; Luime, J J; Gerards, A H

    2018-01-30

    At present, there are no prognostic parameters unequivocally predicting treatment failure in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. We investigated whether baseline ultrasonography (US) findings of joints, when added to baseline clinical, laboratory, and radiographical data, could improve prediction of failure to achieve Disease Activity Score assessing 28 joints (DAS28) remission (baseline. Clinical, laboratory, and radiographical parameters were recorded. Primary analysis was the prediction by logistic regression of the absence of DAS28 remission 12 months after diagnosis and start of therapy. Of 194 patients included, 174 were used for the analysis, with complete data available for 159. In a multivariate model with baseline DAS28 (odds ratio (OR) 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-2.2), the presence of rheumatoid factor (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-5.1), and type of monitoring strategy (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.05-0.85), the addition of baseline US results for joints (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.89-1.04) did not significantly improve the prediction of failure to achieve DAS28 remission (likelihood ratio test, 1.04; p = 0.31). In an early RA population, adding baseline ultrasonography of the hands, wrists, and feet to commonly available baseline characteristics did not improve prediction of failure to achieve DAS28 remission at 12 months. Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01752309 . Registered on 19 December 2012.

  13. EARLY DIAGNOSIS OF IMMUNE DISTURBANCES AND ITS CORRECTION IN THE TREATMENT OF MULTIORGAN FAILURE AND SEPTIC COMPLICATIONS AFTER OPERATIONS WITH ARTIFICIAL AND ASSIST CIRCULATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Suskova

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The study has shown that early diagnosis of the type and degree of immune disturbances in preparation for the operation and the first signs of multiorgan failure and septic complications in the postoperative period in cardiac surgery patients were the rationale for the earlier substitution immunocorrection by immunomodulators of cytokine nature and intravenous immunoglobulin. It allowed increasing the efficiency of the treatment of postoperative complications and lower mortality after operations with artificial and assist circulation. 

  14. Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

  15. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

    2008-01-01

    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

  16. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in leprosy | Chewoolkar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to ...

  17. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I

    2014-10-01

    The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  18. Catastrophic risk : Social influences on insurance decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krawczyk, Michal; Trautmann, Stefan; van de Kuilen, Gijs

    We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social

  19. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in obstetric practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Валерий Николаевич Запорожан

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Thus, the Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is much more common than has been assumed until now, in all patients the authors strongly recommend screening for AFA. Furthermore, eclampsia, HELLP-syndrome premature detachment of normally located placentae (PDNSP can develop in the presence of other defects of hemostasis, in particular in mutation FV Leiden, MTHFR C677T, deficiency of protein C (PC, protein S (PS. The combination of acquired thrombophilia due to APS, with genetic defects worsen hemostasis during the pathological process leading to the development of thrombotic complications. Perhaps a combination of hereditary thrombophilia and APS creates a favorable environment in which, under certain conditions, possible decompensation of the hemostatic system and the development of CAPS. Patients with APS constitute a group of very high risk of thromboembolic complications in the perioperative period. Even a minimally invasive intervention (biopsy, curettage, tooth extraction may trigger the development of CAPS. Thus, according to Erkan et al. (2003, 40% of patients develop CAPS was provoked by surgery. The main reasons for the development of thrombotic complications in connection with surgical intervention is the damage to the vessel wall, blood stasis and the abolition of indirect anticoagulants. In the study on the presence of genetic thrombophilia was found heterozygous form of FV Leiden mutation and homozygous mutation of MTHFR C677T. He was diagnosed with pregnancy 14 weeks, APS, mixed form of thrombophilia (a combination of acquisitions and multigenic thrombophilia, hyperhomocysteinemia, weighed down by obstetric and somatic history.It is very urgent and important problem remains diagnosis CAPS, which is inconceivable without the determination of AFA. The latter should be mandatory for all pregnant women with preeclampsia habitual miscarriage, Premature detachment of normally situated placenta (PDNSP, genital herpes history

  20. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC

    2015-01-01

    predictor of chronic pain persisting ≥3 months following TKA in five of the studies assessed. Limitations of studies included lack of large-scale data, absence of standardized pain measurements, inadequate multivariate adjustment, such as failure to control for analgesic use and other relevant covariates, and failure to report non-significant parameter estimates. Conclusion: This study provides moderate-level evidence for pain catastrophizing as an independent predictor of chronic pain post-TKA. Directions for future research include larger, well-controlled studies with standard pain outcomes, identification of clinically-relevant catastrophizing cut-offs that predict pain outcomes, investigation of other psychosocial risk factors, and assessment of interventions aimed to reduce pain catastrophizing on chronic pain outcomes following TKA surgery. Keywords: pain catastrophizing, total knee arthroplasty, total knee replacement, knee arthroplasty, risk factors, chronic pain

  1. Catastrophic risks and insurance in farm-level decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.

    2008-01-01

    Keywords: risk perception, risk attitude, catastrophic risk, insurance, farm characteristics, farmer personal characteristics, utility-efficient programming, arable farming, dairy farming

    Catastrophic risks can cause severe cash flow problems for farmers or even result into their

  2. Homeland Security is Hometown Security: Comparison and Case Studies of Vertically Synchronized Catastrophe Response Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Hurricanes Andrew, Hugo , and Katrina resonate as failures where there was little, if any, federal response in the initial hours, which left the depleted...was also initiated by several large scale incidents, including the Three Mile Island Disaster and Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew.67 This evolved at the...persist during large scale disasters, as was demonstrated during Hurricane Katrina and Super Storm Sandy. Catastrophe response planning at the

  3. Autologous Transplantation in Follicular Lymphoma with Early Therapy Failure: A National LymphoCare Study and Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casulo, Carla; Friedberg, Jonathan W; Ahn, Kwang W; Flowers, Christopher; DiGilio, Alyssa; Smith, Sonali M; Ahmed, Sairah; Inwards, David; Aljurf, Mahmoud; Chen, Andy I; Choe, Hannah; Cohen, Jonathon; Copelan, Edward; Farooq, Umar; Fenske, Timothy S; Freytes, Cesar; Gaballa, Sameh; Ganguly, Siddhartha; Jethava, Yogesh; Kamble, Rammurti T; Kenkre, Vaishalee P; Lazarus, Hillard; Lazaryan, Aleksandr; Olsson, Richard F; Rezvani, Andrew R; Rizzieri, David; Seo, Sachiko; Shah, Gunjan L; Shah, Nina; Solh, Melham; Sureda, Anna; William, Basem; Cumpston, Aaron; Zelenetz, Andrew D; Link, Brian K; Hamadani, Mehdi

    2017-12-11

    Patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) experiencing early therapy failure (ETF) within 2 years of frontline chemoimmunotherapy have poor overall survival (OS). We analyzed data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) and the National LymphoCare Study (NLCS) to determine whether autologous hematopoietic cell transplant (autoHCT) can improve outcomes in this high-risk FL subgroup. ETF was defined as failure to achieve at least partial response after frontline chemoimmunotherapy or lymphoma progression within 2 years of frontline chemoimmunotherapy. We identified 2 groups: the non-autoHCT cohort (patients from the NLCS with ETF not undergoing autoHCT) and the autoHCT cohort (CIBMTR patients with ETF undergoing autoHCT). All patients received rituximab-based chemotherapy as frontline treatment; 174 non-autoHCT patients and 175 autoHCT patients were identified and analyzed. There was no difference in 5-year OS between the 2 groups (60% versus 67%, respectively; P = .16). A planned subgroup analysis showed that patients with ETF receiving autoHCT soon after treatment failure (≤1 year of ETF; n = 123) had higher 5-year OS than those without autoHCT (73% versus 60%, P = .05). On multivariate analysis, early use of autoHCT was associated with significantly reduced mortality (hazard ratio, .63; 95% confidence interval, .42 to .94; P = .02). Patients with FL experiencing ETF after frontline chemoimmunotherapy lack optimal therapy. We demonstrate improved OS when receiving autoHCT within 1 year of treatment failure. Results from this unique collaboration between the NLCS and CIBMTR support consideration of early consolidation with autoHCT in select FL patients experiencing ETF. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Analysis of cause-specific failure endpoints using simple proportions: an example from a randomized controlled clinical trial in early breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panzarella, Tony; Meakin, J. William

    1998-01-01

    Purpose: To describe a statistically valid method for analyzing cause-specific failure data based on simple proportions, that is easy to understand and apply, and outline under what conditions its implementation is well-suited. Methods and Materials: In the comparison of treatment groups, time to first failure (in any site) was analyzed first, followed by an analysis of the pattern of first failure, preferably at the latest complete follow-up time common to each group. Results: A retrospective analysis of time to contralateral breast cancer in 777 early breast cancer patients was undertaken. Patients previously treated by mastectomy plus radiation therapy to the chest wall and regional nodal areas were randomized to receive further radiation and prednisone (R+P), radiation alone (R), or no further treatment (NT). Those randomized to R+P had a statistically significantly delayed time to first failure compared to the group randomized to NT (p = 0.0008). Patients randomized to R also experienced a delayed time to first failure compared to NT, but the difference was not statistically significant (p 0.14). At 14 years from the date of surgery (the latest common complete follow-up time) the distribution of first failures was statistically significantly different between R+P and NT (p = 0.005), but not between R and NT (p = 0.09). The contralateral breast cancer first failure rate at 14 years from surgery was 7.2% for NT, 4.6% for R, and 3.7% for R+P. The corresponding Kaplan-Meier estimates were 13.2%, 8.2%, and 5.4%, respectively. Conclusion: Analyzing cause-specific failure data using methods developed for survival endpoints is problematic. We encourage the use of the two-step analysis strategy described when, as in the example presented, competing causes of failure are not likely to be statistically independent, and when a treatment comparison at a single time-point is clinically relevant and feasible; that is, all patients have complete follow-up to this point

  5. Observing a catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage in northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.

    2015-01-01

    The formation and drainage of thermokarst lakes have reshaped ice-rich permafrost lowlands in the Arctic throughout the Holocene. North of Teshekpuk Lake, on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, thermokarst lakes presently occupy 22.5% of the landscape, and drained thermokarst lake basins occupy 61.8%. Analysis of remotely sensed imagery indicates that nine lakes (>10 ha) have drained in the 1,750 km2 study area between 1955 and 2014. The most recent lake drainage was observed using in situ data loggers providing information on the duration and magnitude of the event, and a nearby weather station provided information on the environmental conditions preceding the lake drainage. Lake 195 (L195), an 80 ha thermokarst lake with an estimated water volume of ~872,000 m3, catastrophically drained on 05 July 2014. Abundant winter snowfall and heavy early summer precipitation resulted in elevated lake water levels that likely promoted bank overtopping, thermo-erosion along an ice-wedge network, and formation of a 9 m wide, 2 m deep, and 70 m long drainage gully. The lake emptied in 36 hours, with 75% of the water volume loss occurring in the first ten hours. The observed peak discharge of the resultant flood was 25 m3/s, which is similar to that in northern Alaska river basins whose areas are more than two orders of magnitude larger. Our findings support the catastrophic nature of sudden lake drainage events and the mechanistic hypotheses developed by J. Ross Mackay.

  6. Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berry, M V; Howls, C J

    2010-01-01

    Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X 9 diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

  7. Does the Presence of Primary Circulating Prostate Cells Imply the Presence of Agressive Prostate Cancer with Early Biochemical Failure: a Comparison with the Walz Nomogram.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Nigel P; Reyes, Eduardo; Orellana, Nelson; Fuentealba, Cynthia; Orellana, Sebastian; Jacob, Omar

    2016-01-01

    To determine the utility of primary circulating prostate cells (CPC) for predicting early biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer and compare the results with the Walz nomogram. A single centre prospective study of men with prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy was conducted between 2004 and 2014. Clinicalpathological details were registered, along with total serum PSA presurgery, Gleason score, extracapsular extension, positive surgical margins, infiltration of lymph nodes, seminal vesicles and pathological stage. Primary circulating prostate cells were obtained using differential gel centrifugation and detected using standard immunocytochemistry with antiPSA. Biochemical failure was defined as a PSA >0.2ng/ml, predictive values were calculated using the Walz nomagram and CPC detection. A total of 285 men participated, of whom 103/285 (36.1%) suffered biochemcial failure; 32/103 (31.1%) within two years of radical prostatectomy. Men with higher Gleason scores, higher pathological stage, infiltration of the surgical margin or prostate capsule and infiltration of seminal vesicles were more likely to undergo biochemical failure. There was a significant increase in the frequency of biochemical failure with increasing number of CPCs detected (p<0.0004 Chi squared for trend) and increasing percent prediction for the Walz nomogram (p<0.0001 Chi squared for trends). The positive predictive value of primary CPC detection, even using a cutoff point of ≥ 4 cells/sample was very low. The detection of primary CPCs in men as a prognostic factor pretreatment fails to identify those at high risk of biochemical failure within two years of curative therapy. This is in keeping with their biological significance, that the majority of them will be eliminated by the primary therapy and thus have no influence on the subsequent clinical history of the patient.

  8. Failure mechanisms in high temperature gas cooled reactor fuel particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soo, P.; Uneberg, G.; Sabatini, R.L.; Schweitzer, D.G.

    1979-01-01

    BISO coated UO 2 and ThO 2 particles were heated to high temperatures to determine failure mechanisms during hypothetical loss of coolant scenarios. Rapid failure begins when the oxides are reduced to liquid carbides. Several failure mechanisms are applicable, ranging from hole and crack formation in the coatings to catastrophic particle disintegration

  9. Aetiology, timing and clinical predictors of early vs. late readmission following index hospitalization for acute heart failure: insights from ASCEND-HF.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fudim, Marat; O'Connor, Christopher M; Dunning, Allison; Ambrosy, Andrew P; Armstrong, Paul W; Coles, Adrian; Ezekowitz, Justin A; Greene, Stephen J; Metra, Marco; Starling, Randall C; Voors, Adriaan A; Hernandez, Adrian F; Michael Felker, G; Mentz, Robert J

    2018-02-01

    Patients hospitalized for heart failure (HF) are at high risk for 30-day readmission. This study sought to examine the timings and causes of readmission within 30 days of an HF hospitalization. Timing and cause of readmission in the ASCEND-HF (Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide and Decompensated Heart Failure) trial were assessed. Early and late readmissions were defined as admissions occurring within 0-7 days and 8-30 days post-discharge, respectively. Patients who died in hospital or remained hospitalized at day 30 post-randomization were excluded. Patients were compared by timing and cause of readmission. Logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for early vs. late readmission and associations with 180-day outcomes. Of the 6584 patients (92%) in the ASCEND-HF population included in this analysis, 751 patients (11%) were readmitted within 30 days for any cause. Overall, 54% of readmissions were for non-HF causes. The median time to rehospitalization was 11 days (interquartile range: 6-18 days) and 33% of rehospitalizations occurred by day 7. Rehospitalization within 30 days was independently associated with increased risk for 180-day all-cause death [hazard ratio (HR) 2.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.93-2.94; P readmission (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.67-1.45; P = 0.94). In this hospitalized HF trial population, a significant majority of 30-day readmissions were for non-HF causes and one-third of readmissions occurred in the first 7 days. Early and late readmissions within the 30-day timeframe were associated with similarly increased risk for death. Continued efforts to optimize multidisciplinary transitional care are warranted to improve rates of early readmission. © 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure © 2017 European Society of Cardiology.

  10. Diagnosis and management of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmi, Or; Berla, Maya; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Levy, Yair

    2017-04-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare, life-threatening disease. In 1992, Asherson defined it as a widespread coagulopathy related to the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). CAPS requires rapid diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment. Areas covered: This paper discusses all aspects of CAPS, including its pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches, differential diagnoses, management and treatment of relapsing CAPS, and its prognosis. To obtain the information used in this review, scientific databases were searched using the key words antiphospholipid antibodies, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, hemolytic anemia, lupus anticoagulant, and thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia. Expert commentary: CAPS is a rare variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). It is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs and a cytokine storm developing over a short period, with histopathologic evidence of multiple microthromboses, and laboratory confirmation of high aPL titers. This review discusses the diagnostic challenges and current approaches to the treatment of CAPS.

  11. Tackling The Global Challenge: Humanitarian Catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth V. Iserson

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available “Humanitarian catastrophes,” conflicts and calamities generating both widespread human suffering and destructive events, require a wide range of emergency resources. This paper answers a number of questions that humanitarian catastrophes generate: Why and how do the most-developed countries—those with the resources, capabilities, and willingness to help—intervene in specific types of disasters? What ethical and legal guidelines shape our interventions? How well do we achieve our goals? It then suggests a number of changes to improve humanitarian responses, including better NGO-government cooperation, increased research on the best disaster response methods, clarification of the criteria and roles for humanitarian (military interventions, and development of post-2015 Millennium Development Goals with more accurate progress measures. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(2:231–240.

  12. A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Kent, A

    2004-01-01

    Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

  13. Topographic precursors and geological structures of deep-seated catastrophic landslides caused by typhoon Talas, determined from the analysis of high-resolution DEMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chigira, Masahiro; Tsou, Ching-Ying; Matsushi, Yuki

    2013-04-01

    Typhoon Talas crossed the Japanese Islands between 2 and 5 September 2011, causing more than 70 deep-seated catastrophic landslides in a Jurassic to Paleogene-Early Miocene accretion complex. Detailed examination of the topographic features of 10 large landslides before the event, recorded on DEMs with a resolution of 1 m (based on airborne laser scanner surveys), showed that all of the landslides had small scarplets near their future crowns prior to the slide, and one landslide had linear depressions along its future crown as precursor topographic features. These scarplets and linear depressions were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Strains, defined by the ratio of the length of a scarplet to the length of the whole slope (as measured along the slope line), ranged from 5% to 21%, and are the first reliable numerical data relating to the topographic precursor features of large and catastrophic landslides. Careful examination of aerial photographs from another four large landslides, for which no high-resolution DEMs were available, suggested that they also developed scarplets at their heads beforehand, which are not precisely quantified. Twelve of the 14 landslides we surveyed in the field had sliding surfaces with wedge-shaped discontinuities that consisted of faults, shear surfaces that formed during accretion, and bedding, suggesting that the buildup of pore pressure occurs readily in a gravitationally deformed rock body containing wedge-shaped discontinuities. Other types of gravitational deformation were also active; e.g., flexural toppling and buckling were each observed to have preceded one landslide.

  14. SU-D-204-07: Retrospective Correlation of Dose Accuracy with Regions of Local Failure for Early Stage Lung Cancer Patients Treated with Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Devpura, S; Li, H; Liu, C; Fraser, C; Ajlouni, M; Movsas, B; Chetty, I [Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To correlate dose distributions computed using six algorithms for recurrent early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT), with outcome (local failure). Methods: Of 270 NSCLC patients treated with 12Gyx4, 20 were found to have local recurrence prior to the 2-year time point. These patients were originally planned with 1-D pencil beam (1-D PB) algorithm. 4D imaging was performed to manage tumor motion. Regions of local failures were determined from follow-up PET-CT scans. Follow-up CT images were rigidly fused to the planning CT (pCT), and recurrent tumor volumes (Vrecur) were mapped to the pCT. Dose was recomputed, retrospectively, using five algorithms: 3-D PB, collapsed cone convolution (CCC), anisotropic analytical algorithm (AAA), AcurosXB, and Monte Carlo (MC). Tumor control probability (TCP) was computed using the Marsden model (1,2). Patterns of failure were classified as central, in-field, marginal, and distant for Vrecur ≥95% of prescribed dose, 95–80%, 80–20%, and ≤20%, respectively (3). Results: Average PTV D95 (dose covering 95% of the PTV) for 3-D PB, CCC, AAA, AcurosXB, and MC relative to 1-D PB were 95.3±2.1%, 84.1±7.5%, 84.9±5.7%, 86.3±6.0%, and 85.1±7.0%, respectively. TCP values for 1-D PB, 3-D PB, CCC, AAA, AcurosXB, and MC were 98.5±1.2%, 95.7±3.0, 79.6±16.1%, 79.7±16.5%, 81.1±17.5%, and 78.1±20%, respectively. Patterns of local failures were similar for 1-D and 3D PB plans, which predicted that the majority of failures occur in centraldistal regions, with only ∼15% occurring distantly. However, with convolution/superposition and MC type algorithms, the majority of failures (65%) were predicted to be distant, consistent with the literature. Conclusion: Based on MC and convolution/superposition type algorithms, average PTV D95 and TCP were ∼15% lower than the planned 1-D PB dose calculation. Patterns of failure results suggest that MC and convolution

  15. Early treatment failure in concurrent dengue and mixed malaria species infection with suspected resistance to artemisinin combination therapy from a tertiary care center in Delhi: a case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saksena, Rushika; Matlani, Monika; Singh, Vineeta; Kumar, Amit; Anveshi, Anupam; Kumar, Dilip; Gaind, Rajni

    2017-01-01

    Concurrent dengue and mixed malaria infections in a single patient present with overlapping clinical manifestations which pose a diagnostic challenge and management dilemma in areas of common endemicities. We report a case of a young male who tested positive for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum along with dengue infection. He showed signs of early treatment failure to artemisinin combination therapy (artesunate with sulfadoxine+pyrimethamine). Molecular analysis for the drug resistance genes viz: chloroquine resistance ( pfcrt ), multidrug resistance ( pfmdr-1 ), sulfadoxine ( pfdhps ), pyrimethamine ( pfdhfr ), and artemisinin resistance ( keltch 13 ) was performed. A rise in parasitemia from treatment. Mutations in pfcrt , pfmdr-1 , pfdhfr , and pfdhps genes were detected as a possible cause of treatment failure. Increased severity, overlapping symptoms, and suspected resistance to treatment warrants a multidimensional diagnostic approach and diligent therapeutic monitoring.

  16. Topographic stress and catastrophic collapse of volcanic islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, S.; Perron, J. T.; Martel, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    Flank collapse of volcanic islands can devastate coastal environments and potentially induce tsunamis. Previous studies have suggested that factors such as volcanic eruption events, gravitational spreading, the reduction of material strength due to hydrothermal alteration, steep coastal cliffs, or sea level change may contribute to slope instability and induce catastrophic collapse of volcanic flanks. In this study, we examine the potential influence of three-dimensional topographic stress perturbations on flank collapses of volcanic islands. Using a three-dimensional boundary element model, we calculate subsurface stress fields for the Canary and Hawaiian islands to compare the effects of stratovolcano and shield volcano shapes on topographic stresses. Our model accounts for gravitational stresses from the actual shapes of volcanic islands, ambient stress in the underlying plate, and the influence of pore water pressure. We quantify the potential for slope failure of volcanic flanks using a combined model of three-dimensional topographic stress and slope stability. The results of our analysis show that subsurface stress fields vary substantially depending on the shapes of volcanoes, and can influence the size and spatial distribution of flank failures.

  17. Management of Men with Prostate-specific Antigen Failure After Prostate Radiotherapy: The Case Against Early Androgen Deprivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Douglas; Parker, Chris

    2018-04-01

    In men with prostate-specific antigen failure after radical radiotherapy, androgen deprivation therapy should be delayed until the site of recurrence is known to allow consideration of curative treatment options, to delay androgen deprivation therapy-related morbidity, and to enable earlier access to abiraterone and docetaxel. Copyright © 2017 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Routine versus aggressive upstream rhythm control for prevention of early atrial fibrillation in heart failure: background, aims and design of the RACE 3 study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alings, M; Smit, M D; Moes, M L; Crijns, H J G M; Tijssen, J G P; Brügemann, J; Hillege, H L; Lane, D A; Lip, G Y H; Smeets, J R L M; Tieleman, R G; Tukkie, R; Willems, F F; Vermond, R A; Van Veldhuisen, D J; Van Gelder, I C

    2013-07-01

    Rhythm control for atrial fibrillation (AF) is cumbersome because of its progressive nature caused by structural remodelling. Upstream therapy refers to therapeutic interventions aiming to modify the atrial substrate, leading to prevention of AF. The Routine versus Aggressive upstream rhythm Control for prevention of Early AF in heart failure (RACE 3) study hypothesises that aggressive upstream rhythm control increases persistence of sinus rhythm compared with conventional rhythm control in patients with early AF and mild-to-moderate early systolic or diastolic heart failure undergoing electrical cardioversion. RACE 3 is a prospective, randomised, open, multinational, multicenter trial. Upstream rhythm control consists of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and/or angiotensin receptor blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, statins, cardiac rehabilitation therapy, and intensive counselling on dietary restrictions, exercise maintenance, and drug adherence. Conventional rhythm control consists of routine rhythm control therapy without cardiac rehabilitation therapy and intensive counselling. In both arms, every effort is made to keep patients in the rhythm control strategy, and ion channel antiarrhythmic drugs or pulmonary vein ablation may be instituted if AF relapses. Total inclusion will be 250 patients. If upstream therapy proves to be effective in improving maintenance of sinus rhythm, it could become a new approach to rhythm control supporting conventional pharmacological and non-pharmacological rhythm control.

  19. Optimal design of earth-moving machine elements with cusp catastrophe theory application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitukhin, A. V.; Skobtsov, I. G.

    2017-10-01

    This paper deals with the optimal design problem solution for the operator of an earth-moving machine with a roll-over protective structure (ROPS) in terms of the catastrophe theory. A brief description of the catastrophe theory is presented, the cusp catastrophe is considered, control parameters are viewed as Gaussian stochastic quantities in the first part of the paper. The statement of optimal design problem is given in the second part of the paper. It includes the choice of the objective function and independent design variables, establishment of system limits. The objective function is determined as mean total cost that includes initial cost and cost of failure according to the cusp catastrophe probability. Algorithm of random search method with an interval reduction subject to side and functional constraints is given in the last part of the paper. The way of optimal design problem solution can be applied to choose rational ROPS parameters, which will increase safety and reduce production and exploitation expenses.

  20. Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M

    2016-01-01

    This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 332 , 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

  1. Utility of CD4 cell counts for early prediction of virological failure during antiretroviral therapy in a resource-limited setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawn Stephen D

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Viral load monitoring is not available for the vast majority of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings. However, the practical utility of CD4 cell count measurements as an alternative monitoring strategy has not been rigorously assessed. Methods In this study, we used a novel modelling approach that accounted for all CD4 cell count and VL values measured during follow-up from the first date that VL suppression was achieved. We determined the associations between CD4 counts (absolute values and changes during ART, VL measurements and risk of virological failure (VL > 1,000 copies/ml following initial VL suppression in 330 patients in South Africa. CD4 count changes were modelled both as the difference from baseline (ΔCD4 count and the difference between consecutive values (CD4 count slope using all 3-monthly CD4 count measurements during follow-up. Results During 7093.2 patient-months of observation 3756 paired CD4 count and VL measurements were made. In patients who developed virological failure (n = 179, VL correlated significantly with absolute CD4 counts (r = - 0.08, P = 0.003, ΔCD4 counts (r = - 0.11, P P P = 0.99, P = 0.92 and P = 0.75, respectively. Moreover, in a receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve, the association between a negative CD4 count slope and virological failure was poor (area under the curve = 0.59; sensitivity = 53.0%; specificity = 63.6%; positive predictive value = 10.9%. Conclusion CD4 count changes correlated significantly with VL at group level but had very limited utility in identifying virological failure in individual patients. CD4 count is an inadequate alternative to VL measurement for early detection of virological failure.

  2. Early management of mesenteric cyst prevents catastrophes: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Mesenteric cysts are rare intraabdominal masses in the paediatric age group with varied presentation, ranging from an asymptomatic mass to acute abdomen. This study reviews our experience in the diagnosis and treatment of 17 mesenteric cysts in our centre, with especial reference to acute abdominal ...

  3. Timber Price Dynamics Following a Natural Catastrophe

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2000-01-01

    Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20% of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the short- and long-run effects of the hurricane on the prices of timber stocks, we estimated an intervention model of the residuals of cointegration of South Carolina sawtimber and pulpwood ...

  4. Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

    2005-12-08

    The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

  5. Astrophysics: Is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

    2005-12-01

    The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

  6. Evaluation of Left Ventricular Diastolic Dysfunction with Early Systolic Dysfunction Using Two-Dimensional Speckle Tracking Echocardiography in Canine Heart Failure Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei-Chun; Ma, Hong; Xie, Rong-Ai; Gao, Li-Jian; Tang, Yue; Wang, Hao

    2016-04-01

    This study evaluated the role of two-dimensional speckle tracking echocardiography (2DSTE) for predicting left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction in pacing-induced canine heart failure. Pacing systems were implanted in 8 adult mongrel dogs, and continuous rapid right ventricular pacing (RVP, 240 beats/min) was maintained for 2 weeks. The obtained measurements from 2DSTE included global strain rate during early diastole (SRe) and during late diastole (SRa) in the longitudinal (L-SRe, L-SRa), circumferential (C-SRe, C-SRa), and radial directions (R-SRe, R-SRa). Changes in heart morphology were observed by light microscopy and transmission electron microscopy at 2 weeks. The onset of LV diastolic dysfunction with early systolic dysfunction occurred 3 days after RVP initiation. Most of the strain rate imaging indices were altered at 1 or 3 days after RVP onset and continued to worsen until heart failure developed. Light and transmission electron microscopy showed myocardial vacuolar degeneration and mitochondrial swelling in the left ventricular at 2 weeks after RVP onset. Pearson's correlation analysis revealed that parameters of conventional echocardiography and 2DSTE showed moderate correlation with LV pressure parameters, including E/Esep' (r = 0.58, P echocardiography and strain rate imaging could effectively predict LV diastolic dysfunction (area under the curve: E/Esep' 0.78; L-SRe 0.84; E/L-SRe 0.80; R-SRe 0.80). 2DSTE was a sensitive and accurate technique that could be used for predicting LV diastolic dysfunction in canine heart failure model. © 2015, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. STUDY OF FACTORS INFLUENCING EARLY SYMPTOMATIC IMPROVEMENT, RETURN TO NORMOXIA AND RADIOLOGICAL RESOLUTION IN SWINE FLU PATIENTS WITH RESPIRATORY FAILURE IN RICU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vamsidhar Reddy Manne

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Since 2009, swine influenza outbreaks have been recorded virtually every year, although their extent and severity have varied widely. Localised outbreaks are taking place at variable intervals, usually every 1-3 years. The most recent outbreak has been from December 2016 through April 2017. We still are in the midst of one. This study of factors influencing early clinical and radiological improvement and reversion to normoxia in swine flu patients with respiratory failure helps in saving precious lives. MATERIALS AND METHODS This is a cross-sectional study conducted at RICU, Department of Pulmonary Medicine, S.V.R.R. Government General Hospital/S.V. Medical College, Tirupathi, Andhra Pradesh, between January 2017 and April 2017. Study sample was the total number of swine flu patients admitted to the RICU of the Department of Pulmonary Medicine with respiratory failure. RESULTS Out of 42 patients who tested positive for swine flu, 37 had respiratory failure and were immediately admitted in RICU. Oxygen support, oseltamivir and higher antibiotics were immediately started, injectable steroids given where necessary. Comorbidities were meticulously managed. 19 were males and 18 were females. 21 patients (>50% were above 50 years. Cough and breathlessness were present in all patients (100%. At admission, all 37 showed SpO2 <85% and at discharge all of them were normoxic. 18 patients had either multilobar pneumonia or ARDS on CXR, which had resolved by the time of discharge. The shortest duration of stay was 7 days and the longest duration of stay was 11 days. 35 patients were discharged and 2 patients died. CONCLUSION Good oxygenation, starting of oseltamivir on day 1 of admission prevents further complications and hastens recovery. Swine flu patients with normal chest x-ray and no comorbidities can still end up with respiratory failure. Steroids decrease cough and breathlessness, but have no role in hastening recovery. No residual symptoms

  8. Predictors of early dyspnoea relief in acute heart failure and the association with 30-day outcomes: findings from ASCEND-HF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mentz, Robert J.; Hernandez, Adrian F.; Stebbins, Amanda; Ezekowitz, Justin A.; Felker, G. Michael; Heizer, Gretchen M.; Atar, Dan; Teerlink, John R.; Califf, Robert M.; Massie, Barry M.; Hasselblad, Vic; Starling, Randall C.; O'Connor, Christopher M.; Ponikowski, Piotr

    2013-01-01

    Aims To examine the characteristics associated with early dyspnoea relief during acute heart failure (HF) hospitalization, and its association with 30-day outcomes. Methods and results ASCEND-HF was a randomized trial of nesiritide vs. placebo in 7141 patients hospitalized with acute HF in which dyspnoea relief at 6 h was measured on a 7-point Likert scale. Patients were classified as having early dyspnoea relief if they experienced moderate or marked dyspnoea improvement at 6 h. We analysed the clinical characteristics, geographical variation, and outcomes (mortality, mortality/HF hospitalization, and mortality/hospitalization at 30 days) associated with early dyspnoea relief. Early dyspnoea relief occurred in 2984 patients (43%). In multivariable analyses, predictors of dyspnoea relief included older age and oedema on chest radiograph; higher systolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, and natriuretic peptide level; and lower serum blood urea nitrogen (BUN), sodium, and haemoglobin (model mean C index = 0.590). Dyspnoea relief varied markedly across countries, with patients enrolled from Central Europe having the lowest risk-adjusted likelihood of improvement. Early dyspnoea relief was associated with lower risk-adjusted 30-day mortality/HF hospitalization [hazard ratio (HR) 0.81; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68–0.96] and mortality/hospitalization (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74–0.99), but similar mortality. Conclusion Clinical characteristics such as respiratory rate, pulmonary oedema, renal function, and natriuretic peptide levels are associated with early dyspnoea relief, and moderate or marked improvement in dyspnoea was associated with a lower risk for 30-day outcomes. PMID:23159547

  9. Multiple Sclerosis and Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juyani, Yaser; Hamedi, Dorsa; Hosseini Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe; Qasham, Maryam

    2016-09-01

    There are many disabling medical conditions which can result in catastrophic health expenditure. Multiple Sclerosis is one of the most costly medical conditions through the world which encounter families to the catastrophic health expenditures. This study aims to investigate on what extent Multiple sclerosis patients face catastrophic costs. This study was carried out in Ahvaz, Iran (2014). The study population included households that at least one of their members suffers from MS. To analyze data, Logit regression model was employed by using the default software STATA12. 3.37% of families were encountered with catastrophic costs. Important variables including brand of drug, housing, income and health insurance were significantly correlated with catastrophic expenditure. This study suggests that although a small proportion of MS patients met the catastrophic health expenditure, mechanisms that pool risk and cost (e.g. health insurance) are required to protect them and improve financial and access equity in health care.

  10. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  11. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles D Brummitt

    Full Text Available We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe, causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  12. Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ballengee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

  13. Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

    2013-10-01

    Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

  14. Of cuts and cracks: data analytics on constrained graphs for early prediction of failure in cementitious materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahagalage Sanath

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Using data from discrete element simulations, we develop a data analytics approach using network flow theory to study force transmission and failure in a ‘dog-bone’ concrete specimen submitted to uniaxial tension. With this approach, we establish the extent to which the bottlenecks, i.e., a subset of contacts that impedes flow and are prone to becoming overloaded, can predict the location of the ultimate macro-crack. At the heart of this analysis is a capacity function that quantifies, in relative terms, the maximum force that can be transmitted through the different contacts or edges in the network. Here we set this function to be solely governed by the size of the contact area between the deformable spherical grains. During all the initial stages of the loading history, when no bonds are broken, we find the bottlenecks coincide consistently with, and therefore predict, the location of the crack that later forms in the failure regime after peak force. When bonds do start to break, they are spread throughout the specimen: in, near, and far from, the bottlenecks. In one stage leading up to peak force, bonds collectively break in the lower portion of the specimen, momentarily shifting the bottlenecks to this location. Just before and around peak force, however, the bottlenecks return to their original location and remain there until the macro-crack emerges right along the bottlenecks.

  15. Basic concepts in metal work failure after metastatic spine tumour surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Naresh; Patel, Ravish; Wadhwa, Anshuja Charvi; Kumar, Aravind; Milavec, Helena Maria; Sonawane, Dhiraj; Singh, Gurpal; Benneker, Lorin Michael

    2018-04-01

    The development of spinal implants marks a watershed in the evolution of metastatic spine tumour surgery (MSTS), which has evolved from standalone decompressive laminectomy to instrumented stabilization and decompression with reconstruction when necessary. Fusion may not be feasible after MSTS due to poor quality of graft host bed along with adjunct chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy postoperatively. With an increase in the survival of patients with spinal tumours, there is a probability of an increase in the rate of implant failure. This review aims to help establish a clear understanding of implants/constructs used in MSTS and to highlight the fundamental biomechanics of implant/construct failures. Published literature on implant failure after spine surgery and MSTS has been reviewed. The evolution of spinal implants and their role in MSTS has been briefly described. The review defines implant/construct failures using radiological parameters that are practical, feasible, and derived from historical descriptions. We have discussed common modes of implant/construct failure after MSTS to allow further understanding, interception, and prevention of catastrophic failure. Implant failure rates in MSTS are in the range of 2-8%. Variability in patterns of failure has been observed based on anatomical region and the type of constructs used. Patients with construct/implant failures may or may not be symptomatic and present either as early (failures (> 3months). It has been noted that not all the implant failures after MSTS result in revisions. Based on the observed radiological criteria and clinical presentations, we have proposed a clinico-radiological classification for implant/construct failure after MSTS.

  16. Indirect Catastrophic Injuries in Olympic Styles of Wrestling in Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Kordi, Ramin; Ziaee, Vahid; Rostami, Mohsen; Wallace, W. Angus

    2011-01-01

    Background: Data on indirect catastrophic injuries in wrestling are scarce. Objectives: To develop a profile of indirect catastrophic injuries in international styles of wrestling and to describe possible risk factors. Study Design: Retrospective case series; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Indirect catastrophic injuries that occurred in wrestling clubs in Iran from July 1998 to June 2005 were identified by contacting several sources. The cases were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The injur...

  17. Probability Elicitation to Inform Early Health Economic Evaluations of New Medical Technologies : A Case Study in Heart Failure Disease Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cao, Qi; Postmus, Douwe; Hillege, Hans L.; Buskens, Erik

    Objectives: Early estimates of the commercial headroom available to a new medical device can assist producers of health technology in making appropriate product investment decisions. The purpose of this study was to illustrate how this quantity can be captured probabilistically by combining

  18. Coronal Flux Rope Catastrophe Associated With Internal Energy Release

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Bin; Hu, Youqiu; Wang, Yuming; Zhang, Quanhao; Liu, Rui; Gou, Tingyu; Shen, Chenglong

    2018-04-01

    Magnetic energy during the catastrophe was predominantly studied by the previous catastrophe works since it is believed to be the main energy supplier for the solar eruptions. However, the contribution of other types of energies during the catastrophe cannot be neglected. This paper studies the catastrophe of the coronal flux rope system in the solar wind background, with emphasis on the transformation of different types of energies during the catastrophe. The coronal flux rope is characterized by its axial and poloidal magnetic fluxes and total mass. It is shown that a catastrophe can be triggered by not only an increase but also a decrease of the axial magnetic flux. Moreover, the internal energy of the rope is found to be released during the catastrophe so as to provide energy for the upward eruption of the flux rope. As far as the magnetic energy is concerned, it provides only part of the energy release, or even increases during the catastrophe, so the internal energy may act as the dominant or even the unique energy supplier during the catastrophe.

  19. A pilot study to explore the effectiveness of "early" rehabilitation after a hospital admission for chronic heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houchen, Linzy; Watt, Amye; Boyce, Sally; Singh, Sally

    2012-07-01

    People with chronic heart failure (CHF) experience acute exacerbations of their symptoms. These episodes are costly to patients and the health service. The study was a single group, pretest and posttest design. Seventeen patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) started rehabilitation within 4 weeks of hospital discharge. The 6 week rehabilitation programme included exercise and self-management education. The hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS), the incremental and endurance shuttle walking tests (ISWT/ESWT) were assessed at baseline and after rehabilitation. The number and duration of any CHF admissions in the year before and the year after rehabilitation were also recorded. Improvements in the ISWT, ESWT, and depression were, mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) 60.6 (36.0-85.2) metres, 356.0 (173.0-539.0) seconds (both p≤0.001) and (-)1.0 ((-)1.8-(-)0.2) points (precovery are unknown.

  20. Case Study: IBM Watson Analytics Cloud Platform as Analytics-as-a-Service System for Heart Failure Early Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Guidi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In the recent years the progress in technology and the increasing availability of fast connections have produced a migration of functionalities in Information Technologies services, from static servers to distributed technologies. This article describes the main tools available on the market to perform Analytics as a Service (AaaS using a cloud platform. It is also described a use case of IBM Watson Analytics, a cloud system for data analytics, applied to the following research scope: detecting the presence or absence of Heart Failure disease using nothing more than the electrocardiographic signal, in particular through the analysis of Heart Rate Variability. The obtained results are comparable with those coming from the literature, in terms of accuracy and predictive power. Advantages and drawbacks of cloud versus static approaches are discussed in the last sections.

  1. Ultra-Sensitive NT-proBNP Quantification for Early Detection of Risk Factors Leading to Heart Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keum-Soo Song

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular diseases such as acute myocardial infarction and heart failure accounted for the death of 17.5 million people (31% of all global deaths in 2015. Monitoring the level of circulating N-terminal proBNP (NT-proBNP is crucial for the detection of people at risk of heart failure. In this article, we describe a novel ultra-sensitive NT-proBNP test (us-NT-proBNP that allows the quantification of circulating NT-proBNP in 30 min at 25 °C in the linear detection range of 7.0–600 pg/mL. It is a first report on the application of a fluorescence bead labeled detection antibody, DNA-guided detection method, and glass fiber membrane platform for the quantification of NT-proBNP in clinical samples. Limit of blank, limit of detection, and limit of quantification were 2.0 pg/mL, 3.7 pg/mL, and 7 pg/mL, respectively. The coefficient of variation was found to be less than 10% in the entire detection range of 7–600 pg/mL. The test demonstrated specificity for NT-proBNP without interferences from bilirubin, intra-lipid, biotin, and hemoglobin. The serial dilution test for plasma samples containing various NT-proBNP levels showed the linear decrement in concentration with the regression coefficient of 0.980–0.998. These results indicate that us-NT-proBNP test does not suffer from the interference of the plasma components for the measurement of NT-proBNP in clinical samples.

  2. Stunting at birth: recognition of early-life linear growth failure in the western highlands of Guatemala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomons, Noel W; Vossenaar, Marieke; Chomat, Anne-Marie; Doak, Colleen M; Koski, Kristine G; Scott, Marilyn E

    2015-07-01

    Measurements of length at birth, or in the neonatal period, are challenging to obtain and often discounted for lack of validity. Hence, classical 'under-5' stunting rates have been derived from surveys on children from 6 to 59 months of age. Guatemala has a high prevalence of stunting (49.8%), but the age of onset of growth failure is not clearly defined. The objective of the study was to assess length-for-age within the first 1.5 months of life among Guatemalan infants. As part of a cross-sectional observational study, supine length was measured in young infants. Mothers' height was measured. Length-for-age Z-scores (HAZ) were generated and stunting was defined as HAZ Guatemala. Three hundred and six newborns with a median age of 19 d. The median rural HAZ was -1.56 and prevalence of stunting was 38%; the respective urban values were -1.41 and 25%. Linear regression revealed no relationship between infant age and HAZ (r = 0.101, r(2) = 0.010, P = 0.077). Maternal height explained 3% of the variability in HAZ (r = 0.171, r(2) = 0.029, P = 0.003). Stunting must be carried over from in utero growth retardation in short-stature Guatemalan mothers. As linear growth failure in this setting begins in utero, its prevention must be linked to maternal care strategies during gestation, or even before. A focus on maternal nutrition and health in an intergenerational dimension is needed to reduce its prevalence.

  3. Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Morris

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Cet article relie Madame Bovary au contexte scientifique français des années 1850, en lisant le roman de Flaubert à la lumière des théories de Cuvier. Le savant français Georges Cuvier, avec nombre de ses contemporains, explique les origines du monde à l’aide de la théorie des catastrophes. D’après cette théorie, le monde est divisé en périodes très courtes ponctuées de grandes catastrophes ou, en termes cuviériens, de « révolutions » qui ont éradiqué toute vie et ont permis au monde d’être entièrement repeuplé. Une telle conception affecte l’idée même du « temps ». Cuvier pense que la formation de la Terre est relativement récente, l’époque présente n’étant vieille que de cinq mille ans. Cette compression temporelle peut être rapportée à Madame Bovary dont le « tempo » s’accroît au fur et à mesure qu’on se rapproche du dénouement. Dans la théorie des catastrophes comme dans le roman, le temps ne suit pas une ligne chronologique. Les « révolutions » viennent briser le fil continu du temps et Emma est souvent incapable de distinguer entre le passé, le présent et le futur. Les « révolutions » servent aussi à ponctuer et à perturber le cours de la vie sur Terre en produisant des événements majeurs dans l’histoire du globe. Il en est de même dans la vie d’Emma. Son existence est marquée par des événements majeurs, comme le bal, qui créent un éclatement et une fragmentation de la temporalité, comme dans la théorie de Cuvier. Je défendrai aussi l’idée d’un lien entre la soudaineté et la violence des « révolutions » et les crises nerveuses d’Emma, qui surviennent brusquement et relèvent de l’hystérie. La conception cuviérienne de la temporalité doit enfin être envisagée au regard des théories de l’évolution, ce qui implique de réévaluer les notions d’adaptation, d’hérédité et de mort dans le roman de Flaubert.This paper locates Madame

  4. Catastrophic optical bulk degradation in high-power single- and multi-mode InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers: part II

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sin, Yongkun; Ayvazian, Talin; Brodie, Miles; Lingley, Zachary

    2018-03-01

    High-power single-mode (SM) and multi-mode (MM) InGaAs-AlGaAs strained quantum well (QW) lasers are critical components for both terrestrial and space satellite communications systems. Since these lasers predominantly fail by catastrophic and sudden degradation due to catastrophic optical damage (COD), it is especially crucial for space satellite applications to investigate reliability, failure modes, precursor signatures of failure, and degradation mechanisms of these lasers. Our group reported a new failure mode in MM and SM InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers in 2009 and 2016, respectively. Our group also reported in 2017 that bulk failure due to catastrophic optical bulk damage (COBD) is the dominant failure mode of both SM and MM lasers that were subject to long-term life-tests. For the present study, we continued our physics of failure investigation by performing long-term life-tests followed by failure mode analysis (FMA) using nondestructive and destructive micro-analytical techniques. We performed long-term accelerated life-tests on state-of-the-art SM and MM InGaAs- AlGaAs strained QW lasers under ACC mode. Our life-tests have accumulated over 25,000 test hours for SM lasers and over 35,000 test hours for MM lasers. We first employed electron beam induced current (EBIC) technique to identify failure modes of degraded SM lasers by observing dark line defects. All the SM failures that we studied showed catastrophic and sudden degradation and all of these failures were bulk failures. Since degradation mechanisms responsible for COBD are still not well understood, we also employed other techniques including focused ion beam (FIB) and high-resolution TEM to further study dark line defects and dislocations in post-aged lasers. Keywor

  5. Radiation therapy for early stage (T1 - T2) sarcomatoid carcinoma of true vocal cords: outcomes and patterns of failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballo, Matthew T.; Garden, Adam S.; El-Naggar, Adel K.; Morrison, William H.; Ang, K. Kian

    1997-01-01

    Objectives/hypothesis: Sarcomatoid carcinoma of head and neck mucosal sites is a rare malignancy surrounded with much controversy. One factor consistently reported yet not well supported throughout the literature is their relative radioresistance and a general belief that surgery is the treatment of choice. Our objective was to determine if patients treated with radiation for early glottic carcinoma with this histologic diagnosis had worse outcomes than typical squamous cell carcinoma of similar stage. Materials and Methods: Twenty-eight cases of early stage sarcomatoid carcinoma of the larynx treated with definitive doses of megavoltage irradiation between 1969 and 1995 at the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center form the cohort for this analysis. All pathologic material was reviewed to confirm the diagnosis. Follow-up ranged from 1.5 - 24 years (median, 10 years). Results: Twenty-one patients were staged T1 and 7 patients had stage T2 disease. Sixteen tumors had the more typical polypoid morphology of sarcomatoid carcinoma. All patients were treated with small laryngeal fields, median size 20 cm2, and to a median dose of 65 Gy. Four patients (14%) had local disease recurrence. All 4 patients had salvage total laryngectomies and remained free of local disease. Only one patient manifested regional and distant disease. The 10-year actuarial survival rate was 63%. Conclusions: Patients with early staged sarcomatoid carcinoma of the glottis treated with radiation had similar control rates to irradiated patients with similar volume disease with the more typical squamous cell carcinoma. We do not believe that the histologic diagnosis of sarcomatoid carcinoma by itself should influence the decision to not treat a patient with early staged glottic disease with irradiation

  6. Long-term failure of alveologenesis after an early short-term exposure to a PDGF-receptor antagonist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Mandy; Masood, Azhar; Yi, Man; Belcastro, Rosetta; Li, Jun; Tanswell, A Keith

    2011-04-01

    Survivors of moderate-to-severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia have impaired alveologenesis lasting at least into early adult life. The mechanisms underlying this long-term effect are unknown. We hypothesized that short-term inhibition of growth factor-mediated early alveolar formation would result in a long-term impairment of subsequent alveologenesis. Neonatal rats were injected daily with the platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) receptor antagonist, imatinib mesylate, from day 1-7 of life, to inhibit the early alveolar formation occurring by in-growth of secondary crests into precursor saccules. The pups were then allowed to recover for 7, 14, 21, or 58 days. In imatinib-treated pups, DNA synthesis in total lung cells, and specifically in cells of secondary crests, was reduced at day 8 of life, had rebounded on day 14 of life but was then again reduced by day 28 of life. At day 8 of life, imatinib-treated pups had impaired alveologenesis as reflected by a decrease in secondary crests, an increase in alveolar size, and an overall decrease in both estimated alveolar number and generations compared with age-matched controls. No meaningful recovery was observed, even after a 21- or 58-day recovery period. The lungs of imatinib-treated pups had increased fibulin-5 content and an abnormal deposition of elastin. We conclude that reduced signaling through the PDGF pathways, at an early stage of alveologenesis, can result in long-lasting changes in lung architecture. A likely mechanism is through impaired formation of the elastin scaffold required for alveolarization.

  7. Age-related differences during simple working memory decisions: ERP indices of early recognition and compensation failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tays, William J; Dywan, Jane; Capuana, Lesley J; Segalowitz, Sidney J

    2011-06-01

    Imaging data has identified frontal cortical activation in older adults during simple recognition tasks that relates positively with performance and could, therefore, be considered compensatory. However, in a previous electrophysiological study involving a Sternberg task with proactive interference manipulations, we observed a frontal positive scalp potential between 400 and 500 ms that was unique to older adults and predictive of poorer performance. These results led us to ask whether unique frontal activation in older adults serves a compensatory role only during relatively simple tasks when stimulus familiarity provides an unambiguous basis for response selection. In the current study, we tested this hypothesis by having younger and older adults complete a verbal Sternberg task without interference manipulations. In younger adults, we observed an early posterior negativity (90-120 ms) that predicted performance accuracy. Older adults failed to show this early negativity but did produce the expected frontal positivity. However, the frontal positivity was again associated with poorer performance. These data support the view that younger adults are able to bias early target discrimination to benefit response selection whereas older adults rely on later controlled processes that are not always effective in buffering against normative age-related decline. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. [2016 review on catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie; Coutte, Laetitia; Le Guern, Véronique; Morel, Nathalie; Leroux, Gaelle; Paule, Romain; Mouthon, Luc; Piette, Jean-Charles

    2016-12-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) develops in at least 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, either primary or associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. CAPS reveals the antiphospholipid syndrome in about 50% of cases. The CAPS is characterized by rapidly-progressive widespread thromboses mainly affecting the microvasculature in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies. In a few days, the patients develop multiorgan failure with renal insufficiency with severe hypertension, pulmonary, cerebral, cardiac, digestive and/or cutaneous involvement. The vital prognosis is frequently engaged. CAPS is often precipitated by infectious diseases, surgical procedures and/or withdrawal or modification of the anticoagulation. CAPS overall mortality rate has decreased and is currently below 30%. The main differential diagnoses are other thrombotic microangiopathies, and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. The treatment of CAPS consists of the association of anticoagulation and steroids, plus plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulins. Cyclophosphamide is added only in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus. The potential contribution of some additional therapies (rituximab, eculizumab or sirolimus) needs to be assessed. The prevention of CAPS is essential and is based upon the adequate management of the perioperative period when surgery cannot be avoided, the prompt treatment and the prevention with immunization of infections and the education of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, especially for the management of oral anticoagulants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  9. External Validity of a Risk Stratification Score Predicting Early Distant Brain Failure and Salvage Whole Brain Radiation Therapy After Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Brain Metastases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Press, Robert H; Boselli, Danielle M; Symanowski, James T; Lankford, Scott P; McCammon, Robert J; Moeller, Benjamin J; Heinzerling, John H; Fasola, Carolina E; Burri, Stuart H; Patel, Kirtesh R; Asher, Anthony L; Sumrall, Ashley L; Curran, Walter J; Shu, Hui-Kuo G; Crocker, Ian R; Prabhu, Roshan S

    2017-07-01

    A scoring system using pretreatment factors was recently published for predicting the risk of early (≤6 months) distant brain failure (DBF) and salvage whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone. Four risk factors were identified: (1) lack of prior WBRT; (2) melanoma or breast histologic features; (3) multiple brain metastases; and (4) total volume of brain metastases external patient population. We reviewed the records of 247 patients with 388 brain metastases treated with SRS between 2010 at 2013 at Levine Cancer Institute. The Press (Emory) risk score was calculated and applied to the validation cohort population, and subsequent risk groups were analyzed using cumulative incidence. The low-risk (LR) group had a significantly lower risk of early DBF than did the high-risk (HR) group (22.6% vs 44%, P=.004), but there was no difference between the HR and intermediate-risk (IR) groups (41.2% vs 44%, P=.79). Total lesion volume externally valid, but the model was able to stratify between 2 levels (LR and not-LR [combined IR and HR]) for early (≤6 months) DBF. These results reinforce the importance of validating predictive models in independent cohorts. Further refinement of this scoring system with molecular information and in additional contemporary patient populations is warranted. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Metal Dusting: Catastrophic Corrosion by Carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, David J.; Zhang, Jianqiang

    2012-12-01

    Reducing gases rich in carbon-bearing species such as CO can be supersaturated with respect to graphite at intermediate temperatures of about 400-700°C. Engineering alloys such as low-alloy and stainless steels, and heat-resisting iron-, nickel-, and cobalt-base alloys catalyze gas processes that release the carbon. An understanding of how the resulting carbon deposition can destroy alloys at a catastrophically rapid rate has been the objective of a great deal of research. The current review of recent work on metal dusting covers the mass transfer—principally carbon diffusion—and graphite nucleation processes involved. A clear distinction emerges between ferritic alloys, which form cementite and precipitate graphite within that carbide, and austenitics that nucleate graphite directly within the metal. The latter process is facilitated by the strong orientation relationship between the graphite and face-centered cubic (fcc) lattices. Strategies for the control of dusting are briefly outlined.

  11. Application of catastrophe theory to nuclear structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scharff-Goldhaber, G.; Dresden, M.

    1979-01-01

    Three two-parameter models, one describing an A-body system (the atomic nucleus) and two describing many-body systems (the van der Waals gas and the ferroelectric (perovskite) system) are compared within the framework of catastrophe theory. It is shown that each has a critical point (second-order phase transition) when the two counteracting forces controlling it are in balance; further, each undergoes a first-order phase transition when one of the forces vanishes (the deforming force for the nucleus, the attractive force for the van der Waals gas, and the dielectric constant for the perovskite). Finally, when both parameters are kept constant, a kind of phase transition may occur at a critical angular momentum, critical pressure, and critical electric field. 3 figures, 1 table

  12. Determinants of catastrophic health expenditure in iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abolhallaje, M; Hasani, Sa; Bastani, P; Ramezanian, M; Kazemian, M

    2013-01-01

    This study will provide detailed specification of those variables and determinants of unpredictable health expenditure in Iran, and the requirements to reduce extensive effects of the factors affecting households' payments for health and other goods and services inappropriately. This study aims to identify measures of fair financing of health services and determinants of fair financing contribution, regarding the required share of households that prevents their catastrophic payments. In this regard, analysis of shares of households' expenditures on main groups of goods and services in urban and rural areas and in groups of deciles in the statistics from households' expenditure surveys was applied. The growth of spending in nominal values within the years 2002-2008 was considerably high and the rate for out-of-pocket payments is nearly the same or greater than the rate for total health expenditure. In 2008, urban and rural households in average pay 6.4% and 6.35% of their total expenditure on health services. Finally three categories of determinants of unfair and catastrophic payments by households were recognized in terms of households' socio-economic status, equality/inequality conditions of the distribution of risk of financing, and economic aspects of health expenditure distribution. While extending the total share of government and prepayment sources of financing health services are considered as the simplest policy for limiting out-of-pocket payments, indicators and policies introduced in this study could also be considered important and useful for the development of health sector and easing access to health services, irrespective of health financing fairness.

  13. Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dale R. Lockwood

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the "real" world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be "tools" rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a "both-and" rather than an "either-or" approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may provide a way forward

  14. Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

    2001-01-01

    Communities in lowlands near volcanoes are vulnerable to significant volcanic flow hazards in addition to those associated directly with eruptions. The largest such risk is from debris flows beginning as volcanic landslides, with the potential to travel over 100 kilometers. Stratovolcanic edifices commonly are hydrothermal aquifers composed of unstable, altered rock forming steep slopes at high altitudes, and the terrain surrounding them is commonly mantled by readily mobilized, weathered airfall and ashflow deposits. We propose that volcano hazard assessments integrate the potential for unanticipated debris flows with, at active volcanoes, the greater but more predictable potential of magmatically triggered flows. This proposal reinforces the already powerful arguments for minimizing populations in potential flow pathways below both active and selected inactive volcanoes. It also addresses the potential for volcano flank collapse to occur with instability early in a magmatic episode, as well as the 'false-alarm problem'-the difficulty in evacuating the potential paths of these large mobile flows. Debris flows that transform from volcanic landslides, characterized by cohesive (muddy) deposits, create risk comparable to that of their syneruptive counterparts of snow and ice-melt origin, which yield noncohesive (granular) deposits, because: (1) Volcano collapses and the failures of airfall- and ashflow-mantled slopes commonly yield highly mobile debris flows as well as debris avalanches with limited runout potential. Runout potential of debris flows may increase several fold as their volumes enlarge beyond volcanoes through bulking (entrainment) of sediment. Through this mechanism, the runouts of even relatively small collapses at Cascade Range volcanoes, in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 cubic kilometers, can extend to populated lowlands. (2) Collapse is caused by a variety of triggers: tectonic and volcanic earthquakes, gravitational failure, hydrovolcanism, and

  15. Application of some pattern recognition methods for the early detection of failures at NPP components by means of noise diagnosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiss, F.P.

    1985-01-01

    The automation of the decisions on normality or abnormality of the plant condition being based on automated measurements is an essential step for the integration of noise diagnostics into the control and safety system of a nuclear power plant. By reason of the stochastic character of noise diagnostic measuring quantities principles of statistical pattern recognition are used in order automatically to get a decision on the plant condition. Four different pattern recognition methods complementing each other have been developed respectively tested with data from a WWER-440 type reactor. These four methods are included in a specially written software package. According to stationarity, correlation and probability distribution type of the state describing features and according to the necessary detection sensitivity to failures either the decorrelation method, the cluster method, the Parzen method or the distribution test of Wilcoxon, Mann and Whitney has to be applied. The efficiency and the limits of the investigated methods are discussed in detail. In context with the surveillance of the WWER-440 core by means of the power spectral densities of neutron flux fluctuations it could as well experimentally as theoretically be shown that the logarithmic power spectral densities follow a Gaussian probability distribution. (author)

  16. Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2009-01-01

    This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

  17. 'Performative narrativity': Palestinian identity and the performance of catastrophe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saloul, I.

    2008-01-01

    The day Israel annually celebrates as its "Day of Independence" Palestinians commemorate as their day of catastrophe (al-nakba). To most Palestinians, the catastrophic loss of Palestine in 1948 represents the climactic formative event of their lives. In the aftermath of this loss, the Palestinian

  18. Catastrophe, Gender and Urban Experience, 1648–1920

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

  19. Dependent failure analysis of NPP data bases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, S.E.; Lofgren, E.V.; Samanta, P.K.; Wong Seemeng

    1993-01-01

    A technical approach for analyzing plant-specific data bases for vulnerabilities to dependent failures has been developed and applied. Since the focus of this work is to aid in the formulation of defenses to dependent failures, rather than to quantify dependent failure probabilities, the approach of this analysis is critically different. For instance, the determination of component failure dependencies has been based upon identical failure mechanisms related to component piecepart failures, rather than failure modes. Also, component failures involving all types of component function loss (e.g., catastrophic, degraded, incipient) are equally important to the predictive purposes of dependent failure defense development. Consequently, dependent component failures are identified with a different dependent failure definition which uses a component failure mechanism categorization scheme in this study. In this context, clusters of component failures which satisfy the revised dependent failure definition are termed common failure mechanism (CFM) events. Motor-operated valves (MOVs) in two nuclear power plant data bases have been analyzed with this approach. The analysis results include seven different failure mechanism categories; identified potential CFM events; an assessment of the risk-significance of the potential CFM events using existing probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs); and postulated defenses to the identified potential CFM events. (orig.)

  20. Analyses of patterns-of-failure and prognostic factors according to radiation fields in early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krebs, Lorraine; Guillerm, Sophie; Menard, Jean; Hennequin, Christophe; Quero, Laurent; Amorin, Sandy; Brice, Pauline

    2017-01-01

    Doses and volumes of radiation therapy (RT) for early stages of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) have been reduced over the last 30 years. Combined modality therapy (CMT) is currently the standard treatment for most patients with early-stage HL. The aim of this study was to analyze the site of relapse after RT according to the extent of radiation fields. Between 1987 and 2011, 427 patients were treated at our institution with RT ± chemotherapy for stage-I/II HL. Among these, 65 patients who experienced a relapse were retrospectively analyzed. Most patients had nodular sclerosis histology (86 %) and stage-II disease (75.9 %). Bulky disease was present in 21 % and 56 % of patients belonged to the unfavorable risk group according to European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC)/The Lymphoma Study Association (LYSA) definitions. CMT was delivered to 91 % of patients. All patients received RT with doses ranging from 20 to 45 Gy (mean = 34 ± 5.3 Gy). The involved-field RT technique was used in 59 % of patients. The mean time between diagnosis and relapse was 4.2 years (range 0.3-24.5). Out-of-field relapses were suffered by 53 % of patients. Relapses occurred more frequently at out-of-field sites in patients with a favorable disease status, whereas in-field relapses were associated with bulky mediastinal disease. Relapses occurred later for favorable compared with the unfavorable risk group (3.5 vs. 2.9 years, p = 0.5). From multivariate analyses, neither RT dose nor RT field size were predictive for an in-field relapse (p = 0.25 and p = 0.8, respectively), only bulky disease was predictive (p = 0.018). In patients with bulky disease, RT dose and RT field size were not predictive for an in-field relapse. In this subgroup of patients, chemotherapy should be intensified. We confirmed the bad prognosis of early relapses. (orig.) [de

  1. Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Early-Stage Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: The Pattern of Failure Is Distant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam; Drzymala, Robert E.; Trovo, Marco; Jones, Griffin; Denning, Mary Dee

    2010-01-01

    Background: Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) represents a substantial paradigm shift in the treatment of patients with medically inoperable Stage I/II non-small-cell lung cancer. We reviewed our experience using either three- or five-fraction SBRT for peripheral or central tumors, respectively. Methods and Materials: A total of 91 patients signed an institutional review board-approved consent form, were treated with SBRT, and have had ≥6 months of follow-up. Patients were referred for SBRT because of underlying comorbidities (poor performance status in 31 or poor lung function in 52) or refusal of surgery (8 patients). Of the cancers, 83 were peripheral and eight were central. Peripheral cancers received a mean dose of 18 Gy x three fractions. Cancers within 2 cm of the bronchus, esophagus, or brachial plexus were treated with 9 Gy x five fractions. Results: The median follow-up duration for these patients was 18 months (range, 6-42 months). TNM staging was as follows: 58 patients with T1N0M0, 22 with T2N0M0, 2 with T3N0M0 (chest wall), and 6 with T1N0M1 cancers. The median tumor diameter was 2 cm (range, 1-5 cm). The median forced expiratory volume in 1 s was 46% (range, 17-133%) and the median carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO) was 49% (range, 15-144%). Two-year local tumor control was achieved in 86% of patients. The predominant pattern of failure was the development of distant metastasis or second lung cancer. The development of distant metastasis was the only significant prognostic factor for overall survival on multivariate analysis. Conclusions: Local tumor control was shown to be high using SBRT for non-small-cell lung cancer. Overall survival is highly coerrelated with the development of distant metastasis.

  2. Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel E Bialosky

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

  3. Applications of modelling historical catastrophic events with implications for catastrophe risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorby, A.; Grossi, P.; Pomonis, A.; Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.

    2009-04-01

    The management of catastrophe risk is concerned with the quantification of financial losses, and their associated probabilities, for potential future catastrophes that might impact a region. Modelling of historical catastrophe events and, in particular, the potential consequences if a similar event were to occur at the present day can provide insight to help bridge the gap between what we know can happen from historical experience and what potential losses might be out there in the "universe" of potential catastrophes. The 1908 Messina Earthquake (and accompanying local tsunami) was one of the most destructive earthquakes to have occurred in Europe and by most accounts remains Europe's most fatal with over 70,000 casualties estimated. However, what would the potential consequences be, in terms of financial and human losses, if a similar earthquake were to occur at the present day? Exposures, building stock and populations can change over time and, therefore, the consequences of a similar earthquake at the present day may sensibly differ from those observed in 1908. The city of Messina has been reconstructed several times in its history, including following the 1908 earthquake and again following the Second World War. The 1908 earthquake prompted the introduction of the first seismic design regulations in Italy and since 1909 parts of the Messina and Calabria regions have been in the zones of highest seismic coefficient. Utilizing commercial catastrophe loss modelling technology - which combines the modelling of hazard, vulnerability, and financial losses on a database of property exposures - a modelled earthquake scenario of M7.2 in the Messina Straits region of Southern Italy is considered. This modelled earthquake is used to assess the potential consequences in terms of financial losses that an earthquake similar to the 1908 earthquake might have if it were to occur at the present day. Loss results are discussed in the context of applications for the financial

  4. The impact of climate change on catastrophe risk models : implications for catastrophe risk markets in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Seo, John; Mahul, Olivier

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophe risk models allow insurers, reinsurers and governments to assess the risk of loss from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes. These models rely on computer technology and the latest earth and meteorological science information to generate thousands if not millions of simulated events. Recently observed hurricane activity, particularly in the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, i...

  5. A population based study of variations in operation rates for breast cancer, of comorbidity and prognosis at diagnosis: failure to operate for early breast cancer in older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, T; Evans, T; Lagord, C; Monypenny, I; Kearins, O; Lawrence, G

    2014-10-01

    Older women are less likely to have surgery for operable breast cancer. This population-based study examines operation rates by age and identifies groups which present with early or late disease. 37 000 cancer registrations for 2007 were combined with Hospital Episode Statistics comorbidity data for England. Operation rates were examined by age, ethnicity, deprivation, comorbidity, screen-detection, tumour size, grade and nodal status. Early and late presentation were correlated with Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) groups and tumour size. The proportion of women not having surgery increased from 7-10% at ages 35-69 to 82% from age 90. From age 70, the proportion not having surgery rose by an average of 3.1% per year of age. Women with a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of ≥1 (which increased with age), with tumours >50 mm or who were node positive, were less likely to have surgery. Although women aged 70-79 were more likely to have larger tumours, their tumours were also more likely to have an excellent or good NPI (p ethnic groups (p ethnic groups presented with more advanced tumours. Older women had larger tumours which were otherwise of good prognosis, and this would not account for the failure to operate which may in part be related to comorbidity in this age group. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. THE SUCCESSFUL TREATMENT OF A PERIPHERAL VENO-VENOUS EXTRACORPOREAL MEMBRANE OXYGENATION FOR SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY FAILURE IN THE EARLY PERIOD AFTER ADULT LIVER TRANSPLANTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Poptsov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: of our clinical study was to present own experience of veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV ECMO for the treatment of an adult patient (female, 28 yrs, 150 cm, 35 kg with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS in the early period after liver transplantation against satisfactory liver graft function. Materials and methods. Double-lumen cannula 22 F was placed percutaneously in the right internal jugular vein. The ext- racorporeal contour reduced in length and the polymethylpeptene oxygenator (priming volume 175 ml were also. Results. In 1 hour after the beginning of VV ECMO, we registered the noted improvement of arterial blood gas and acid-base balance (regress of respiratory acidosis, improvement of arterial oxygenation which allowed us to use the «protective» mode of mechanical ventilation. Improvement of gas exchange and regress of clinical and radiological manifestations of ARDS allowed for VV ECMO weaning and decannulation on day 7. The patient was discharged from ICU and then from our Centre to a homestay respectively on the 9th and 16th day after VV ECMO weaning with the satisfactory liver graft and lungs function. Conclusion. VV ECMO can be successfully applied to correct the life-threatening acute respiratory failure in the early period after liver transplantation. 

  7. Histologic Subtype in Core Lung Biopsies of Early-Stage Lung Adenocarcinoma is a Prognostic Factor for Treatment Response and Failure Patterns After Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leeman, Jonathan E.; Rimner, Andreas [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Montecalvo, Joseph [Department of Pathology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Hsu, Meier; Zhang, Zhigang [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Reibnitz, Donata von; Panchoo, Kelly [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Yorke, Ellen [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Adusumilli, Prasad S. [Department of Surgery, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Travis, William [Department of Pathology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Wu, Abraham J., E-mail: wua@mskcc.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) has emerged as an effective treatment for early-stage lung cancer. The histologic subtype of surgically resected lung adenocarcinoma is recognized as a prognostic factor, with the presence of solid or micropapillary patterns predicting poor outcomes. We describe the outcomes after SBRT for early-stage lung adenocarcinoma stratified by histologic subtype. Methods and Materials: We identified 119 consecutive patients (124 lesions) with stage I to IIA lung adenocarcinoma who had undergone definitive SBRT at our institution from August 2008 to August 2015 and had undergone core biopsy. Histologic subtyping was performed according to the 2015 World Health Organization classification. Of the 124 tumors, 37 (30%) were a high-risk subtype, defined as containing a component of solid and/or micropapillary pattern. The cumulative incidences of local, nodal, regional, and distant failure were compared between the high-risk and non–high-risk adenocarcinoma subtypes using Gray's test, and multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from propensity score–weighted Cox regression models. Results: The median follow-up for the entire cohort was 17 months and for surviving patients was 21 months. The 1-year cumulative incidence of and adjusted HR for local, nodal, regional, and distant failure in high-risk versus non–high-risk lesions was 7.3% versus 2.7% (HR 16.8; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.5-81.4), 14.8% versus 2.6% (HR 3.8; 95% CI 0.95-15.0), 4.0% versus 1.2% (HR 20.9; 95% CI 2.3-192.3), and 22.7% versus 3.6% (HR 6.9; 95% CI 2.2-21.1), respectively. No significant difference was seen with regard to overall survival. Conclusions: The outcomes after SBRT for early-stage adenocarcinoma of the lung correlate highly with histologic subtype, with micropapillary and solid tumors portending significantly higher rates of locoregional and metastatic progression. In this context, the histologic subtype

  8. Salvage surgery for local failures after stereotactic ablative radiotherapy for early stage non-small cell lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verstegen, Naomi E.; Maat, Alexander P. W. M.; Lagerwaard, Frank J.; Paul, Marinus A.; Versteegh, Michel I; Joosten, Joris J.; Lastdrager, Willem; Smit, Egbert F.; Slotman, Ben J.; Nuyttens, Joost J. M. E.; Senan, Suresh

    2016-01-01

    The literature on surgical salvage, i.e. lung resections in patients who develop a local recurrence following stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR), is limited. We describe our experience with salvage surgery in nine patients who developed a local recurrence following SABR for early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Patients who underwent surgical salvage for a local recurrence following SABR for NSCLC were identified from two Dutch institutional databases. Complications were scored using the Dindo-Clavien-classification. Nine patients who underwent surgery for a local recurrence were identified. Median time to local recurrence was 22 months. Recurrences were diagnosed with CT- and/or 18FDG-PET-imaging, with four patients also having a pre-surgical pathological diagnosis. Extensive adhesions were observed during two resections, requiring conversion from a thoracoscopic procedure to thoracotomy during one of these procedures. Three patients experienced complications post-surgery; grade 2 (N = 2) and grade 3a (N = 1), respectively. All resection specimens showed viable tumor cells. Median length of hospital stay was 8 days (range 5–15 days) and 30-day mortality was 0 %. Lymph node dissection revealed mediastinal metastases in 3 patients, all of whom received adjuvant therapy. Our experience with nine surgical procedures for local recurrences post-SABR revealed two grade IIIa complications, and a 30-day mortality of 0 %, suggesting that salvage surgery can be safely performed after SABR

  9. The role of early nephrostomy in the management of patients with hyperkalaemia and renal failure due to ureteric obstruction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bhaskar Kumar Somani; Harun Gupta; Alastair Todd

    2014-01-01

    Objective:To assess the outcomes of early percutaneous nephrostomy in obstructed hydronephrosis and hyperkalaemia from ureteric obstruction. Methods:Patients were diagnosed with hyperkalaemia with serum potassium >5.0 mmol/L and hyperkalaemia was graded as mild(5.0-6.0 mmol/L), moderate(6.1-7.0 mmol/L) or severe(>7.1 mmol/L).Data on age, sex, clinical presentation, presence of concurrent disease, creatinine, potassium, haemoglobin concentration, time interval in doing the nephrostomy since their first presentation, any prenephrostomy medical correction of hyperkalaemia and complications were collected. Results:A total of61 patients(40 males and21 females) with mean age of69.7 years(ranged35 to94 years) underwent69 procedures.Prior to the nephrostomy, the serum potassium was mildly elevated in42 cases, moderately elevated in17 cases and severely elevated in10 cases.The overall mean level of potassium before intervention was6.1 mmol/L(range:5.1 mmol/L-9.3 mmol/L).Forty(58%) had nephrostomy without prior medical treatment of the hyperkalaemia.The mean serum potassium in these patients was5.6 mmol/L(range:5.1 mmol/L-7.5 mmol/L).Twentynine (42%) had medical treatment of the hyperkalaemia prior to nephrostomy.The mean potassium level in these patients was reduced from6.7 mmol/L(range5.4 mmol/L-9.3 mmol/L) before medical treatment to5.8 mmol/L(4.0 mmol/L-7.4 mmol/L).Five patients(7%) had complications from percutaneous nephrostomy including temporary atrial fibrillation in3 patients and transient pyrexia in2 patients. Conclusions:Percutaneous nephrostomy as the initial management for hyperkalaemia from ureteric obstruction is a safe procedure with acceptable complication rates.

  10. New Electric Online Oil Condition Monitoring Sensor – an Innovation in Early Failure Detection of Industrial Gears

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manfred Mauntz

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available A new online diagnostics system for the continuous condition monitoring of lubricating oils in industrial gearboxes is presented. Characteristic features of emerging component damage, such as wear, contamination or chemical aging, are identified in an early stage. The OilQSens® sensor effectively controls the proper operation conditions of bearings and cogwheels in gears. Also, the condition of insulating oils in transformers can be monitored. The online diagnostics system measures components of the specific complex impedance of oils. For instance, metal abrasion due to wear debris, broken oil molecules, forming acids or oil soaps result in an increase of the electrical conductivity, which directly correlates with the degree of contamination in the oil. The dielectrical properties of the oils are particularly determined by the water content that becomes accessible via an additional accurate measurement of the dielectric constant. For additivated oils, statements on the degradation of additives can also be derived from changes in the dielectric constant. For an efficient machine utilization and targeted damage prevention, the new OilQSens® online condition monitoring sensor system allows for timely preventative maintenance on demand rather than in rigid inspection intervals. The determination of impurities or reduction in the quality of the oil and the quasi continuous evaluation of wear and chemical aging follow the holistic approach of a real-time monitoring of a change in the condition of the oil-machine system. Once the oil condition monitoring sensors are installed on the plants, the measuring data can be displayed and evaluated elsewhere. The measuring signals are transmitted to a web-based condition monitoring system via LAN, WLAN or serial interfaces of the sensor system. Monitoring of the damage mechanisms during proper operation below the tolerance limits of the components enables specific preventive maintenance independent of rigid

  11. Analyses of patterns-of-failure and prognostic factors according to radiation fields in early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krebs, Lorraine; Guillerm, Sophie; Menard, Jean; Hennequin, Christophe; Quero, Laurent [Saint Louis Hospital, Radiation Oncology Department, Paris (France); Amorin, Sandy; Brice, Pauline [Saint Louis Hospital, AP-HP, Hematooncology Department, Paris (France)

    2017-02-15

    Doses and volumes of radiation therapy (RT) for early stages of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) have been reduced over the last 30 years. Combined modality therapy (CMT) is currently the standard treatment for most patients with early-stage HL. The aim of this study was to analyze the site of relapse after RT according to the extent of radiation fields. Between 1987 and 2011, 427 patients were treated at our institution with RT ± chemotherapy for stage-I/II HL. Among these, 65 patients who experienced a relapse were retrospectively analyzed. Most patients had nodular sclerosis histology (86 %) and stage-II disease (75.9 %). Bulky disease was present in 21 % and 56 % of patients belonged to the unfavorable risk group according to European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC)/The Lymphoma Study Association (LYSA) definitions. CMT was delivered to 91 % of patients. All patients received RT with doses ranging from 20 to 45 Gy (mean = 34 ± 5.3 Gy). The involved-field RT technique was used in 59 % of patients. The mean time between diagnosis and relapse was 4.2 years (range 0.3-24.5). Out-of-field relapses were suffered by 53 % of patients. Relapses occurred more frequently at out-of-field sites in patients with a favorable disease status, whereas in-field relapses were associated with bulky mediastinal disease. Relapses occurred later for favorable compared with the unfavorable risk group (3.5 vs. 2.9 years, p = 0.5). From multivariate analyses, neither RT dose nor RT field size were predictive for an in-field relapse (p = 0.25 and p = 0.8, respectively), only bulky disease was predictive (p = 0.018). In patients with bulky disease, RT dose and RT field size were not predictive for an in-field relapse. In this subgroup of patients, chemotherapy should be intensified. We confirmed the bad prognosis of early relapses. (orig.) [German] Waehrend der letzten 30 Jahre wurden die Strahlentherapie-(RT-)Dosis und die RT-Volumina fuer die Behandlung der Fruehstadien

  12. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  13. Catastrophic disruptions as the origin of bilobate comets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Stephen R.; Michel, Patrick; Jutzi, Martin; Marchi, Simone; Zhang, Yun; Richardson, Derek C.

    2018-05-01

    Several comets observed at close range have bilobate shapes1, including comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P/C-G), which was imaged by the European Space Agency's Rosetta mission2,3. Bilobate comets are thought to be primordial because they are rich in supervolatiles (for example, N2 and CO) and have a low bulk density, which implies that their formation requires a very low-speed accretion of two bodies. However, slow accretion does not only occur during the primordial phase of the Solar System; it can also occur at later epochs as part of the reaccumulation process resulting from the collisional disruption of a larger body4, so this cannot directly constrain the age of bilobate comets. Here, we show by numerical simulation that 67P/C-G and other elongated or bilobate comets can be formed in the wake of catastrophic collisional disruptions of larger bodies while maintaining their volatiles and low density throughout the process. Since this process can occur at any epoch of our Solar System's history, from early on through to the present day5, there is no need for these objects to be formed primordially. These findings indicate that observed prominent geological features, such as pits and stratified surface layers4,5, may not be primordial.

  14. Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Masamichi

    During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and

  15. Eigentumors for prediction of treatment failure in patients with early-stage breast cancer using dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI: a feasibility study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, H. M.; van der Velden, B. H. M.; E Loo, C.; Gilhuijs, K. G. A.

    2017-08-01

    We present a radiomics model to discriminate between patients at low risk and those at high risk of treatment failure at long-term follow-up based on eigentumors: principal components computed from volumes encompassing tumors in washin and washout images of pre-treatment dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE-) MR images. Eigentumors were computed from the images of 563 patients from the MARGINS study. Subsequently, a least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) selected candidates from the components that contained 90% of the variance of the data. The model for prediction of survival after treatment (median follow-up time 86 months) was based on logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was applied and area-under-the-curve (AUC) values were computed as measures of training and cross-validated performances. The discriminating potential of the model was confirmed using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and log-rank tests. From the 322 principal components that explained 90% of the variance of the data, the LASSO selected 28 components. The ROC curves of the model yielded AUC values of 0.88, 0.77 and 0.73, for the training, leave-one-out cross-validated and bootstrapped performances, respectively. The bootstrapped Kaplan-Meier survival curves confirmed significant separation for all tumors (P  <  0.0001). Survival analysis on immunohistochemical subgroups shows significant separation for the estrogen-receptor subtype tumors (P  <  0.0001) and the triple-negative subtype tumors (P  =  0.0039), but not for tumors of the HER2 subtype (P  =  0.41). The results of this retrospective study show the potential of early-stage pre-treatment eigentumors for use in prediction of treatment failure of breast cancer.

  16. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Motoh, Tsujimura [Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmochi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)

    2004-05-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource.

  17. Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Motoh, Tsujimura

    2004-01-01

    We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

  18. PSA Nadir of <0.5 ng/mL Following Brachytherapy for Early-Stage Prostate Adenocarcinoma is Associated With Freedom From Prostate-Specific Antigen Failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ko, Eric C. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, NY (United States); Stone, Nelson N. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, NY (United States); Department of Urology, Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, NY (United States); Stock, Richard G., E-mail: Richard.Stock@mountsinai.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, NY (United States)

    2012-06-01

    Purpose: Because limited information exists regarding whether the rate or magnitude of PSA decline following brachytherapy predicts long-term clinical outcomes, we evaluated whether achieving a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) nadir (nPSA) <0.5 ng/mL following brachytherapy is associated with decreased PSA failure and/or distant metastasis. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed our database of early-stage prostate adenocarcinoma patients who underwent brachytherapy, excluding those receiving androgen-deprivation therapy and those with <2 years follow-up. Median and mean pretreatment PSA were 6 ng/mL and 7.16 ng/mL, respectively. By clinical stage, 775 were low risk ({<=}T2a), 126 were intermediate risk (T2b), and 20 were high risk (>T2b). By Gleason score, 840 were low risk ({<=}6), 71 were intermediate risk (7), and 10 were high risk (>7). Patients were treated with brachytherapy only (I-125, n = 779, or Pd-103, n = 47), or brachytherapy + external-beam radiation therapy (n = 95). Median follow-up was 6.3 years. We noted whether nPSA <0.5 ng/mL was achieved and the time to achieve this nadir and tested for associations with pretreatment risk factors. We also determined whether this PSA endpoint was associated with decreased PSA failure or distant metastasis. Results: Absence of high-risk factors in clinical stage ({<=}T2b), Gleason score ({<=}7), and pretreatment PSA ({<=}20 ng/mL) was significantly associated with achieving nPSA <0.5 ng/mL. By Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients achieving nPSA <0.5 ng/mL had significantly higher long-term freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF) than nonresponders (5-year FFBF: 95.2 {+-} 0.8% vs. 71.5 {+-} 6.7%; p < 0.0005). Among responders, those who achieved nPSA <0.5 ng/mL in {<=}5 years had higher FFBF than those requiring >5 years (5-year FFBF: 96.7 {+-} 0.7% vs. 80.8 {+-} 4.6%; p < 0.0005). On multivariate analysis, patients who achieved nPSA <0.5 ng/mL in {<=}5 years had significantly higher FFBF than other

  19. Topographic precursors and geological structures of deep-seated catastrophic landslides caused by Typhoon Talas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chigira, Masahiro; Tsou, Ching-Ying; Matsushi, Yuki; Hiraishi, Narumi; Matsuzawa, Makoto

    2013-11-01

    Typhoon Talas crossed the Japanese Islands between 2 and 5 September 2011, causing more than 70 deep-seated catastrophic landslides in a Jurassic to Paleogene-lower Miocene accretion complex. Detailed examination of the topographic features of 10 large landslides before the event, recorded on 1-m DEMs based on airborne laser scanner surveys, showed that all landslides had small scarps near their future crowns prior to the slide, and one landslide had linear depressions along its future crown as precursor topographic features. These scarps and linear depressions were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 5% to 21%. Careful examination of aerial photographs from another four large landslides, for which no high-resolution DEMs were available, suggested that they also developed scarps at their heads beforehand. Twelve of the 14 landslides we surveyed in the field had sliding surfaces with wedge-shaped discontinuities that consisted of faults and bedding, suggesting that the buildup of pore pressure occurs readily on wedge-shaped discontinuities in a gravitationally deformed rock body. Most of the faults were undulatory and were probably thrust faults that formed during accretion. Other types of gravitational deformation were also active; e.g., flexural toppling and buckling were observed to have preceded one landslide.

  20. Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firat, Elke; Gaedicke, Simone; Tsurumi, Chizuko; Esser, Norbert; Weyerbrock, Astrid; Niedermann, Gabriele

    2011-01-01

    Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR). Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs) and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF) and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2). Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest the importance of delayed apoptosis, associated mitotic catastrophe, and cellular proliferation for γIR-induced death of

  1. Socio-economic consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe. Social protection of the citizens, affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kholosha, V.; Kovalchuk, V.

    2003-01-01

    The accident on Chernobyl NPP has affected the destiny of 35 million people in Ukraine. The social protection of the population affected during Chernobyl catastrophe is founded on the Law of Ukraine 'About the status and social protection of citizens affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe' (see further - 'Law'), and is the principal direction of activity and the subject of the special state attention to total complex of problems bound to Chernobyl catastrophe consequences elimination. The current legislation stipulates partial compensation of material losses connected with resettlement of the affected population. According to the current legislation in Ukraine about 50 kinds of aid, privileges and compensations are submitted to the affected citizens

  2. Catastrophic Cervical Spine Injuries in Contact Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Michael James; McGuire, Robert A.; Dunn, Robert; Williams, Richard; Robertson, Peter; Twaddle, Bruce; Kiely, Patrick; Clarke, Andrew; Mazda, Keyvan; Davies, Paul; Pagarigan, Krystle T.; Dettori, Joseph R.

    2016-01-01

    Study Design Systematic review. Objectives To determine the incidence of catastrophic cervical spine injuries (CCSIs) among elite athletes participating in contact team sports and whether the incidence varies depending on the use of protective gear or by player position. Methods Electronic databases and reference lists of key articles published from January 1, 2000, to January 29, 2016, were searched. Results Fourteen studies were included that reported CCSI in rugby (n = 10), American football (n = 3), and Irish hurling (n = 1). Among Rugby Union players, incidence of CCSI was 4.1 per 100,000 player-hours. Among National Football League players, the CCSI rate was 0.6 per 100,000 player-exposures. At the collegiate level, the CCSI rate ranged from 1.1 to 4.7 per 100,000 player-years. Mixed populations of elite and recreational rugby players in four studies report a CCSI rate of 1.4 to 7.2 per 100,000 player-years. In this same population, the scrum accounted for 30 to 51% of total reported CCSIs in Rugby Union versus 0 to 4% in Rugby League. The tackle accounted for 29 to 39% of injuries in Rugby Union and 78 to 100% of injuries in Rugby League. Making a tackle was responsible for 29 to 80% of injuries in American football. Conclusion CCSIs are infrequent among elite athletes. There is insufficient evidence to determine the effect of protective gear (e.g., helmets, padding) on CCSI incidence. Scrum and tackle in rugby and tackling in American football account for the majority of CCSIs in each respective sport. PMID:27781193

  3. Catastrophic Cervical Spine Injuries in Contact Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Michael James; McGuire, Robert A; Dunn, Robert; Williams, Richard; Robertson, Peter; Twaddle, Bruce; Kiely, Patrick; Clarke, Andrew; Mazda, Keyvan; Davies, Paul; Pagarigan, Krystle T; Dettori, Joseph R

    2016-11-01

    Study Design  Systematic review. Objectives  To determine the incidence of catastrophic cervical spine injuries (CCSIs) among elite athletes participating in contact team sports and whether the incidence varies depending on the use of protective gear or by player position. Methods  Electronic databases and reference lists of key articles published from January 1, 2000, to January 29, 2016, were searched. Results  Fourteen studies were included that reported CCSI in rugby ( n  = 10), American football ( n  = 3), and Irish hurling ( n  = 1). Among Rugby Union players, incidence of CCSI was 4.1 per 100,000 player-hours. Among National Football League players, the CCSI rate was 0.6 per 100,000 player-exposures. At the collegiate level, the CCSI rate ranged from 1.1 to 4.7 per 100,000 player-years. Mixed populations of elite and recreational rugby players in four studies report a CCSI rate of 1.4 to 7.2 per 100,000 player-years. In this same population, the scrum accounted for 30 to 51% of total reported CCSIs in Rugby Union versus 0 to 4% in Rugby League. The tackle accounted for 29 to 39% of injuries in Rugby Union and 78 to 100% of injuries in Rugby League. Making a tackle was responsible for 29 to 80% of injuries in American football. Conclusion  CCSIs are infrequent among elite athletes. There is insufficient evidence to determine the effect of protective gear (e.g., helmets, padding) on CCSI incidence. Scrum and tackle in rugby and tackling in American football account for the majority of CCSIs in each respective sport.

  4. Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roethlein, B.

    1996-01-01

    Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.) [de

  5. The early onset of peripheral neuropathy might be a robust predictor for time to treatment failure in patients with metastatic breast cancer receiving chemotherapy containing paclitaxel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ippei Fukada

    Full Text Available Paclitaxel plays a central role in chemotherapy for breast cancer. Peripheral neuropathy, a well-known toxicity with paclitaxel, may be of interest in predicting the efficacy of paclitaxel therapy for patients with metastatic breast cancer. We performed a retrospective analysis assessing whether the early occurrence of peripheral neuropathy (EPN was a predictive marker for better efficacy in patients with metastatic breast cancer receiving chemotherapy containing paclitaxel.Between January 2000 and August 2008, we examined the records of 168 patients with metastatic breast cancer treated with paclitaxel in our hospital. EPN was defined as a symptom of Grade 2 or more during first three months of treatment. The overall response rate (ORR and time to treatment failure (TTF in each group were analyzed retrospectively.Of 168 patients with metastatic breast cancer who were treated with paclitaxel, EPN was documented in 101 patients (60.1%. The clinical benefit rate (CR, PR, and SD ≥ 6 months was 72.3% in the EPN group and 49.3% in the non-EPN group (p = 0.002. The TTF of the EPN group (median 11.2 months, 95% CI: 9.5-12.9 was significantly longer than that of the non-EPN group (5.7 months, 95% CI: 4.6-6.8 (p<0.001. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that EPN (p<0.001, dose intensity of less than 70% (p<0.001, and the history of microtubule agents (p = 0.001 were the significant favorable prognostic factors for TTF.The early onset of peripheral neuropathy might be a robust predictor for TTF in patients with metastatic breast cancer treated with paclitaxel.

  6. Polarization catastrophe in nanostructures doped in photonic band gap materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Mahi R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Western Ontario, London N6A 3K7 (Canada)], E-mail: msingh@uwo.ca

    2008-11-30

    In the presence of the dipole-dipole interaction, we have studied a possible dielectric catastrophe in photonic band gap materials doped with an ensemble of four-level nanoparticles. It is found that the dielectric constant of the system has a singularity when the resonance energy lies within the bands. This phenomenon is known as the dielectric catastrophe. It is also found that this phenomenon depends on the strength of the dipole-dipole interaction.

  7. Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey S. Kryukovsky

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of special software for calculating of special functions, questions of portability, extensibility and interoperability.

  8. Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour les collectivités vulnérables des Caraïbes. De récents événements survenus dans les Caraïbes ont mis en relief les insuffisances des mesures régionales et nationales de préparation aux catastrophes. On manque particulièrement de systèmes d'alerte ...

  9. The Effectiveness of Catastrophe Bonds in Portfolio Diversification

    OpenAIRE

    Mariani, Massimo; Amoruso, Paola

    2016-01-01

    The rapid growth of catastrophe bonds in financial markets is due to increasing environmental disasters and consequent economic losses, barely covered by insurance and reinsurance companies. These securities represent an effective solution, allowing the risk transfer to the capital market. The objective of this paper is to prove real advantages of the investor who operates in this market segment, in terms of portfolio diversification. The present work indeed shows how investing in catastrophe...

  10. Estimation of Te-132 distribution in Fukushima Prefecture at the early stage of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant reactor failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagami, Keiko; Uchida, Shigeo; Ishii, Nobuyoshi; Zheng, Jian

    2013-05-21

    Tellurium-132 ((132)Te, half-life: 3.2 d) has been assessed as the radionuclide with the third largest release from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in March 2011; thus it would have made some dose contribution during the early stage of the reactor failures. The available data for (132)Te are, however, limited. In this study, available reported values of other isotopes of Te were compiled to estimate (132)Te concentration (in MBq m(-2)). It was found that (132)Te and (129m)Te (half-life: 33.6 d) concentrations were well correlated (R = 0.99, p < 0.001) by t test. Thus, (132)Te concentrations on March 11, 2011 were estimated from (129m)Te using the concentration conversion factor ((132)Te /(129m)Te) of 14.5. It was also found that since deposited (129m)Te was well retained in the soil, the data collected in March-May of 2011 were applicable to (132)Te estimation. It was possible to obtain the first (132)Te concentration contour map for the eastern part of Fukushima Prefecture, including data from within the 20-km exclusion zone around the FDNPP, using these newly available estimated (132)Te data sets.

  11. Medical management of early pregnancy failure (EPF): a retrospective analysis of a combined protocol of mifepristone and misoprostol used in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colleselli, Valeria; Schreiber, Courtney A; D'Costa, Elisabeth; Mangesius, Stephanie; Wildt, Ludwig; Seeber, Beata E

    2014-06-01

    To evaluate the efficacy of a combined protocol of mifepristone and misoprostol in the management of early pregnancy failure (EPF) and the average time to expulsion of tissue and rate of side effects. Retrospective chart review of all consecutive women treated with primary medical management for EPF at our institution from 2006 to 2012. 168 patients were included in the present study. The overall success rate, defined as the absence of the need for surgical intervention, was 61 % and did not differ by calendar year. There was no difference in success rate grouped by diagnosis [intrauterine embryonic/fetal demise (IUED/IUFD) vs. anembryonic gestation; p = 0.30] or gestational age (800 μg (68 vs. 50 %, p = 0.029). Of the possible predictive factors of success, only the dose of misoprostol required was a significant independent negative predictor. Mean and median time to tissue expulsion after the first dose of misoprostol were 8.4 and 5.5 h, respectively. The incidence of side effects was low with no blood transfusions required. The success rate in this study is markedly below published data. This can possibly be attributed to retrospective study design, allowing for physician subjectivity and patients' wishes in the absence of strict study requirements. The protocol was well tolerated with a paucity of side effects. We make suggestions for enhancing success rates in the clinical setting by optimizing medication protocols, establishing precise treatment guidelines and training physicians in the accurate interpretation of treatment outcomes.

  12. Understanding catastrophizing from a misdirected problem-solving perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flink, Ida K; Boersma, Katja; MacDonald, Shane; Linton, Steven J

    2012-05-01

    The aim is to explore pain catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective. The links between catastrophizing, problem framing, and problem-solving behaviour are examined through two possible models of mediation as inferred by two contemporary and complementary theoretical models, the misdirected problem solving model (Eccleston & Crombez, 2007) and the fear-anxiety-avoidance model (Asmundson, Norton, & Vlaeyen, 2004). In this prospective study, a general population sample (n= 173) with perceived problems with spinal pain filled out questionnaires twice; catastrophizing and problem framing were assessed on the first occasion and health care seeking (as a proxy for medically oriented problem solving) was assessed 7 months later. Two different approaches were used to explore whether the data supported any of the proposed models of mediation. First, multiple regressions were used according to traditional recommendations for mediation analyses. Second, a bootstrapping method (n= 1000 bootstrap resamples) was used to explore the significance of the indirect effects in both possible models of mediation. The results verified the concepts included in the misdirected problem solving model. However, the direction of the relations was more in line with the fear-anxiety-avoidance model. More specifically, the mediation analyses provided support for viewing catastrophizing as a mediator of the relation between biomedical problem framing and medically oriented problem-solving behaviour. These findings provide support for viewing catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective and imply a need to examine and address problem framing and catastrophizing in back pain patients. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  13. Pain Sensitivity and Pain Catastrophizing are Associated with Persistent Pain and Disability after Lumbar Spine Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A.; George, Steven Z.; Devin, Clinton J.; Wegener, Stephen T.; Archer, Kristin R.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To examine whether pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing are associated with persistent pain and disability after lumbar spine surgery. Design Prospective observational cohort study. Setting Academic medical center. Participants Patients (N = 68, mean ± SD age = 57.9 ± 13.1 years, N female = 40 (58.8%)) undergoing spine surgery for a degenerative condition from March 1, 2012 to April 30, 2013 were assessed 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months after surgery. Interventions Not applicable. Main Outcome Measure(s) The main outcome measures were persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, and disability. Patients with persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability were identified as those patients reporting Brief Pain Inventory scores ≥ 4 and Oswestry Disability Index scores ≥ 21 at all postoperative time points. Results From 6 weeks to 6 months after surgery, approximately 12.9%, 24.2%, and 46.8% of patients reported persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability, respectively. Increased pain sensitivity at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.0; 4.1) after surgery. Increased pain catastrophizing at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), pain interference (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), and disability (OR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.1; 1.4). An interaction effect was not found between pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing on persistent outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusion(s) Findings suggest the importance of early postoperative screening for pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing in order to identify patients at-risk for poor postoperative pain intensity, interference, and/or disability outcomes. Future research should consider the benefit of targeted therapeutic strategies for patients with these postoperative prognostic factors. PMID:26101845

  14. Nanowire failure: long = brittle and short = ductile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhaoxuan; Zhang, Yong-Wei; Jhon, Mark H; Gao, Huajian; Srolovitz, David J

    2012-02-08

    Experimental studies of the tensile behavior of metallic nanowires show a wide range of failure modes, ranging from ductile necking to brittle/localized shear failure-often in the same diameter wires. We performed large-scale molecular dynamics simulations of copper nanowires with a range of nanowire lengths and provide unequivocal evidence for a transition in nanowire failure mode with change in nanowire length. Short nanowires fail via a ductile mode with serrated stress-strain curves, while long wires exhibit extreme shear localization and abrupt failure. We developed a simple model for predicting the critical nanowire length for this failure mode transition and showed that it is in excellent agreement with both the simulation results and the extant experimental data. The present results provide a new paradigm for the design of nanoscale mechanical systems that demarcates graceful and catastrophic failure. © 2012 American Chemical Society

  15. A probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Rui; Martina, Mario; Stephenson, David; Youngman, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Economic losses due to natural hazards have shown an upward trend since 1980, which is expected to continue. Recent years have seen a growing worldwide commitment towards the reduction of disaster losses. This requires effective management of disaster risk at all levels, a part of which involves reducing financial vulnerability to disasters ex-ante, ensuring that necessary resources will be available following such events. One way to achieve this is through risk transfer instruments. These can be based on different types of triggers, which determine the conditions under which payouts are made after an event. This study focuses on parametric triggers, where payouts are determined by the occurrence of an event exceeding specified physical parameters at a given location, or at multiple locations, or over a region. This type of product offers a number of important advantages, and its adoption is increasing. The main drawback of parametric triggers is their susceptibility to basis risk, which arises when there is a mismatch between triggered payouts and the occurrence of loss events. This is unavoidable in said programmes, as their calibration is based on models containing a number of different sources of uncertainty. Thus, a deterministic definition of the loss event triggering parameters appears flawed. However, often for simplicity, this is the way in which most parametric models tend to be developed. This study therefore presents an innovative probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance. It is advantageous as it recognizes uncertainties and minimizes basis risk while maintaining a simple and transparent procedure. A logistic regression model is constructed here to represent the occurrence of loss events based on certain loss index variables, obtained through the transformation of input environmental variables. Flood-related losses due to rainfall are studied. The resulting model is able, for any given day, to issue probabilities of occurrence of loss

  16. From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darnall BD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

  17. Anal canal carcinoma: Early-stage tumors ≤10 mm (T1 or Tis): Therapeutic options and original pattern of local failure after radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortholan, Cecile; Ramaioli, Alain; Peiffert, Didier; Lusinchi, Antoine; Romestaing, Pascale; Chauveinc, Laurent; Touboul, Emmanuel; Peignaux, Karine; Bruna, Antoine; La Roche, Guy de; Lagrange, Jean-Leon; Alzieu, Christian; Gerard, Jean Pierre

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate the clinical history, management, and pattern of recurrence of very early-stage anal canal cancer in a French retrospective survey. Methods: The study group consisted of 69 patients with Stage Tis and T1 anal canal carcinoma ≤1 cm treated between 1990 and 2000 (12 were in situ, 57 invasive, 66 Stage N0, and 3 Stage N1). The median patient age was 67 years (range, 27-83 years). Of the 69 patients, 66 received radiotherapy (RT) and 3 with in situ disease were treated by local excision alone without RT. Twenty-six patients underwent local excision before RT (12 with negative and 14 with positive surgical margins). Of the 66 patients who underwent RT, 8 underwent brachytherapy alone (median dose, 55 Gy), 38 underwent external beam RT (median dose, 45 Gy) plus a brachytherapy boost (median boost dose, 20 Gy), and 20 underwent external beam RT alone (median dose, 55 Gy). Results: Of the 69 patients, 68 had initial local control. Of the 66 patients treated by RT, 6 developed local recurrence at a median interval of 50 months (range, 13-78 months). Four patients developed local failure outside the initial tumor bed. Of the 3 patients with Tis treated by excision alone, 1 developed local recurrence. No relation was found among prior excision, dose, and local failure. The 5-year overall survival, colostomy-free survival, and disease-free survival rate was 94%, 85%, and 89%, respectively. The rate of late complications (Grade 1-3) was 28% and was 14% for those who received doses <60 Gy and 37% for those who received doses of ≥60 Gy (p = 0.04). Conclusion: Most recurrences occurred after a long disease-free interval after treatment and often outside the initial tumor site. These small anal cancers could be treated by RT using a small volume and moderate dose (40-50 Gy for subclinical lesions and 50-60 Gy for T1)

  18. Vaginismus: heightened harm avoidance and pain catastrophizing cognitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J

    2012-02-01

    Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of increasing avoidance of (anticipated) pain. In vaginismus the anticipation of pain may give rise to catastrophic pain ideation. This may establish hypervigilance toward painful sexual stimuli, which consequently results in negative appraisal of sexual cues. This process could impair genital and sexual responding, intensify pain and trigger avoidance, which in turn may contribute to the onset and persistence of symptoms in vaginismus and to certain extent also in dyspareunia. To investigate whether women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by heightened levels of habitual pain catastrophic cognitions, together with higher levels of HA. This study consisted of three groups: a lifelong vaginismus group (N = 35, mean age = 28.4; standard deviation [SD] = 5.8), a dyspareunia group (N = 33, mean age = 26.7; SD = 6.8), and women without sexual complaints (N = 54, mean age = 26.5; SD = 6.7). HA scale of Cloninger's tridimensional personality questionnaire, and the pain catastrophizing scale. Specifically women inflicted with vaginismus showed significantly heightened levels of catastrophic pain cognitions compared with the other two groups, as well as significant enhanced HA vs. the control group, and a trend vs. the dyspareunia group. Both traits were shown to have cumulative predictive validity for the presence of vaginismus. This study focused on the personality traits of catastrophizing pain cognitions and HA in women with lifelong vaginismus. Our findings showed that indeed, women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by trait of HA interwoven with habitual pain catastrophizing cognitions. This study could help in the refinement of the current conceptualization and might shed

  19. Comparison of Mifepristone Followed by Misoprostol with Misoprostol Alone for Treatment of Early Pregnancy Failure: A Randomized Double-Blind Placebo-Controlled Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Priya; Suneja, Amita; Guleria, Kiran; Aggarwal, Richa; Vaid, Neelam B

    2018-02-01

    To compare the efficacy and safety of mifepristone followed by misoprostol with misoprostol alone in the management of early pregnancy failure (EPF). A randomized double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial. Ninety-two women with EPF ≤12 weeks were recruited and randomly allocated to receive either mifepristone 200 mg ( n  = 46) or placebo ( n  = 46). Forty-eight hours later, patients in both the groups were given 800 µg misoprostol per-vaginum. If no expulsion occurred within 4 h, repeat doses of 400 µg misoprostol were given orally at 3-hourly interval to a maximum of 2 doses in women ≤9 weeks by scan and 4 doses in women >9 weeks by scan. Pre-treatment of misoprostol with mifepristone significantly increased the complete abortion rate (86.7 vs. 57.8%, p  = 0.009) and, hence, reduced the need for surgical evacuation (13.3 vs. 42.2%, p  = 0.002), induction to expulsion interval (4.74 ± 2.24 vs. 8.03 ± 2.77 h, p  = 0.000), mean number of additional doses of misoprostol required (0.68 vs. 1.91, p  = 0.000), and side effects. Use of mifepristone prior to misoprostol in EPF significantly improves the efficacy and reduces the side effects of misoprostol alone.

  20. The added value of mifepristone to non-surgical treatment regimens for uterine evacuation in case of early pregnancy failure: a systematic review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Berg, Joyce; Gordon, Bernardus B M; Snijders, Marcus P M L; Vandenbussche, Frank P H A; Coppus, Sjors F P J

    2015-12-01

    Early pregnancy failure (EPF) is a common complication of pregnancy. Surgical intervention carries a risk of complications and, therefore, medical treatment appears to be a safe alternative. Unfortunately, the current medical treatment with misoprostol alone has complete evacuation rates between 53% and 87%. Some reports suggest that sequential treatment with mifepristone and misoprostol leads to higher success rates than misoprostol alone. To evaluate the added value of mifepristone to current non-surgical treatment regimens in women with EPF we performed a systematic literature search. Electronic databases were searched: PubMed, Cochrane Library, Current Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials.gov. Clinical studies, both randomised and non-randomised trials, reporting on the added value of mifepristone to current non-surgical treatment regimens in women with EPF were included. Data of sixteen studies were extracted using a data extraction sheet (based on the Cochrane Consumers and Communication Review Group's data extraction template). The methodological quality was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias tool. In five randomised and eleven non-randomised trials, success rates of sequential treatment with mifepristone and misoprostol in case of EPF varied between 52% and 95%. Large heterogeneity existed in treatment regimens and comparators between studies. The existing evidence is insufficient to draw firm conclusions about the added value of mifepristone to misoprostol alone. A sufficiently powered randomised, double blinded placebo-controlled trial is urgently required to test whether, in EPF, the sequential combination of mifepristone with misoprostol is superior to misoprostol only. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Catastrophes et consommation des substances psychoactives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivokapić Žilijeta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available (francuski Les catastrophes, les accidents, les stress, les traumatismes sont des expériences négatives de vie accompagnées de changements physiologiques, cognitifs, émotionnels et comportementaux. Les stratégies les plus courantes inefficaces à résoudre les expériences de vie négatives sont: l' agression - ouverte (physique et / ou verbale, passive et latente, le retrait social, le placage, la dépression, l'impuissance, l' isolement et l' abus de médicaments, en particulier de drogues. Les personnes se trouvant dans des situations stressantes essayent de s' aider elles-mêmes souvent en recourant à des substances qui procurent une amélioration de leur état et suppriment le malaise momentané. Cette 'thérapie par auto-thérapie' comporte de graves risques La personne qui, après une période de consommation de ces substances devenaient dépendante, manifeste des changements visibles au niveau physique et psychologique. Elle se dérobe à ses obligations, rompt avec les activités auxquelles elle prenait plaisir autrefois de même qu' avec ses loisirs et ses intérêts; elle change des amis, ses relations familiales et amicales deviennent pauvres et remplies de nombreux conflits; elle devient moins critique et plus manipulative, commence à mentir, trompe pour dissimuler sa toxicomanie, rejoint un groupe de ses semblables, se livre à des activités criminogènes, de plus en plus se dégrade physiquement. L' alcool qui, étant le plus accessible et par conséquent généralement 'la première mesure d' auto-thérapie', a un impact particulièrement dévastateur sur l' organisme sensible au point de vue psycho-physique. Nous assistons à de nombreuses difficultés et des problèmes qui, à la suite de la consommation d' alcool, aggravent ceux liés à des expériences des événements traumatisants. De même l' efficacité de certains comprimés de réduire les tensions ou d' améliorer l' état du patient conduit fréquemment

  2. [Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in the immediate puerperium].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, P; Castro, A; Vallés, M; Coll, E; Casas, M; Mauri, J M

    2003-01-01

    We describe a female previously diagnosed of primary antiphospholipid antibody syndrome who presented a preclampsia in the second pregnancy. An urgent caesaria was made because of a worsening high blood pressure and oliguria. In the immediated puerperium she showed low platelets and persistent high blood pressure. Afterwards acute renal failure and neurological signs with a severe aortic valvulopathy were diagnosed. An haemolytic anemia was also detected. Definitive diagnosis was made by kidney biopsy with the result of a thrombotic microangiopathy. Treatment with low weight heparin and aspirin and systemic corticosteroids was started in the immediate puerperium and fresh frozen plasma was then added with a good response to treatment. Actually she is still with high blood pressure, aortic valvulopathy. Renal function is normal one year later.

  3. Respiratory Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Respiratory failure happens when not enough oxygen passes from your lungs into your blood. Your body's organs, ... brain, need oxygen-rich blood to work well. Respiratory failure also can happen if your lungs can' ...

  4. Failure Waves in Shock-Compressed Glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanel, G. I.

    2006-01-01

    The failure wave is a network of cracks that are nucleated on the surface and propagate into the elastically stressed body. It is a mode of catastrophic fracture in an elastically stressed media whose relevance is not limited to impact events. In the paper, main properties of the failure waves are summarized and discussed. It has been shown that the failure wave is really a wave process which is characterized by small increase of the longitudinal stress and corresponding increments of the particle velocity and the density. The propagation velocity of the failure wave is less than the sound speed; it is not directly related to the compressibility but is determined by the crack growth speed. The failure wave is steady if the stress state ahead of it is supported unchanging. In some sense the process is similar to a subsonic combustion wave. Computer simulations based on the phenomenological combustion-like model reproduces well all kinematical aspects of the phenomenon

  5. Understanding of failure and failure of understanding: Aspects of failure in the Old Testament

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Alfred Loader

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking its cue from Rudolf Bultmann’s famous verdict that the Old Testament is a ‘failure’ (‘Scheitern’, the article reviews three influential negative readings of Israel’s history as told in the Former Prophets. It is then argued that awareness of the theological problem posed by Israel’s history enabled the redactors of both the former and the latter prophetic collections to deal with the element of human failure in a way that facilitated Israel’s retaining of her faith. Next, the sapiential insight in failing human discernment is drawn into the equation. Failure of human action is here interrelated with failure to comprehend God’s order. By virtue of its incorporation into the totality of the Tanak, this insight became a constructive part of Israel’s faith. Therefore the concept of failure comprises more than coming to terms with Israel’s catastrophic history. Since it is encoded in Israel’s Holy Scripture, ‘failure’ is a major concept within the Old Testament internally and is therefore not suitable as a verdict over the Old Testament by an external value judgement. ‘Failure’ thus becomes a key hermeneutical category, not merely so that the Old Testament could become a ‘promise’ for the New Testament to fulfil, but as a manifestation of limits in human religion and thought. Far from undermining self-esteem, constructive use of the concept of her own failure sustained Israel in her catastrophe and should be adopted by Christianity – not least in South Africa, where the biblical message was often misappropriated to bolster apartheid.

  6. Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    1994-01-01

    Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

  7. Stagewise cognitive development: an application of catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Maas, H L; Molenaar, P C

    1992-07-01

    In this article an overview is given of traditional methodological approaches to stagewise cognitive developmental research. These approaches are evaluated and integrated on the basis of catastrophe theory. In particular, catastrophe theory specifies a set of common criteria for testing the discontinuity hypothesis proposed by Piaget. Separate criteria correspond to distinct methods used in cognitive developmental research. Such criteria are, for instance, the detection of spurts in development, bimodality of test scores, and increased variability of responses during transitional periods. When a genuine stage transition is present, these criteria are expected to be satisfied. A revised catastrophe model accommodating these criteria is proposed for the stage transition in cognitive development from the preoperational to the concrete operational stage.

  8. Heart Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heart failure is a condition in which the heart can't pump enough blood to meet the body's needs. Heart failure does not mean that your heart has stopped ... and shortness of breath Common causes of heart failure are coronary artery disease, high blood pressure and ...

  9. Socioeconomic inequality in catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boing, Alexandra Crispim; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de; Posenato, Leila Garcia; Peres, Karen Glazer

    2014-08-01

    To analyze the evolution of catastrophic health expenditure and the inequalities in such expenses, according to the socioeconomic characteristics of Brazilian families. Data from the National Household Budget 2002-2003 (48,470 households) and 2008-2009 (55,970 households) were analyzed. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as excess expenditure, considering different methods of calculation: 10.0% and 20.0% of total consumption and 40.0% of the family's capacity to pay. The National Economic Indicator and schooling were considered as socioeconomic characteristics. Inequality measures utilized were the relative difference between rates, the rates ratio, and concentration index. The catastrophic health expenditure varied between 0.7% and 21.0%, depending on the calculation method. The lowest prevalences were noted in relation to the capacity to pay, while the highest, in relation to total consumption. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure increased by 25.0% from 2002-2003 to 2008-2009 when the cutoff point of 20.0% relating to the total consumption was considered and by 100% when 40.0% or more of the capacity to pay was applied as the cut-off point. Socioeconomic inequalities in the catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil between 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 increased significantly, becoming 5.20 times higher among the poorest and 4.17 times higher among the least educated. There was an increase in catastrophic health expenditure among Brazilian families, principally among the poorest and those headed by the least-educated individuals, contributing to an increase in social inequality.

  10. Stability of interbed for salt cavern gas storage in solution mining considering cusp displacement catastrophe theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Yu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Cusp displacement catastrophe theory can be introduced to propose a new method about instability failure of the interbed for gas storage cavern in bedded salt in solution mining. We can calculate initial fracture drawing pace of this interbed to obtain 2D and 3D gas storage shapes at this time. Moreover, Stability evaluation of strength reduction finite element method (FEM based on this catastrophe theory can used to evaluate this interbed stability after initial fracture. A specific example is simulated to obtain the influence of the interbed depth, cavern internal pressure, and cavern building time on stability safety factor (SSF. The results indicate: the value of SSF will be lower with the increase of cavern building time in solution mining and the increase of interbed depth and also this value remains a rise with the increase of cavern internal pressure Especially, we can conclude that the second-fracture of the interbed may take place when this pressure is lower than 6 MPa or after 6 days later of the interbed after initial fracture. According to above analysis, some effective measures, namely elevating the tube up to the top of the interbed, or changing the circulation of in-and-out lines, can be introduced to avoid the negative effects when the second-fracture of the interbed may occur.

  11. Clinical Pain Catastrophizing in Women With Migraine and Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, Dale S; Buse, Dawn C; Lipton, Richard B; Thomas, J Graham; Rathier, Lucille; Roth, Julie; Pavlovic, Jelena M; Evans, E Whitney; Wing, Rena R

    2015-01-01

    Obesity is related to migraine. Maladaptive pain coping strategies (eg, pain catastrophizing) may provide insight into this relationship. In women with migraine and obesity, we cross-sectionally assessed: (1) prevalence of clinical catastrophizing; (2) characteristics of those with and without clinical catastrophizing; and (3) associations of catastrophizing with headache features. Obese women migraineurs seeking weight loss treatment (n = 105) recorded daily migraine activity for 1 month via smartphone and completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Clinical catastrophizing was defined as total PCS score ≥30. The six-item Headache Impact Test (HIT-6), 12-item Allodynia Symptom Checklist (ASC-12), Headache Management Self-Efficacy Scale (HMSE), and assessments for depression (Centers for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) and anxiety (seven-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale) were also administered. Using PCS scores and body mass index (BMI) as predictors in linear regression, we modeled a series of headache features (ie, headache days, HIT-6, etc) as outcomes. One quarter (25.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.2-34.1%) of participants met criteria for clinical catastrophizing: they had higher BMI (37.9 ± 7.5 vs 34.4 ± 5.7 kg/m(2) , P = .035); longer migraine attack duration (160.8 ± 145.0 vs 97.5 ± 75.2 hours/month, P = .038); higher HIT-6 scores (68.7 ± 4.6 vs 64.5 ± 3.9, P duration (β = 0.390, P duration, higher pain sensitivity, greater headache impact, and lower headache management self-efficacy. In all participants, PCS scores were related to several migraine characteristics, above and beyond the effects of obesity. Prospective studies are needed to determine sequence and mechanisms of relationships between catastrophizing, obesity, and migraine. © 2015 American Headache Society.

  12. Recommendations on pre-hospital & early hospital management of acute heart failure : a consensus paper from the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology, the European Society of Emergency Medicine and the Society of Academic Emergency Medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mebazaa, Alexandre; Yilmaz, M. Birhan; Levy, Phillip; Ponikowski, Piotr; Peacock, W. Frank; Laribi, Said; Ristic, Arsen D.; Lambrinou, Ekaterini; Masip, Josep; Riley, Jillian P.; McDonagh, Theresa; Mueller, Christian; deFilippi, Christopher; Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Thiele, Holger; Piepoli, Massimo F.; Metra, Marco; Maggioni, Aldo; McMurray, John; Dickstein, Kenneth; Damman, Kevin; Seferovic, Petar M.; Ruschitzka, Frank; Leite-Moreira, Adelino F.; Bellou, Abdelouahab; Anker, Stefan D.; Filippatos, Gerasimos

    Acute heart failure is a fatal syndrome. Emergency physicians, cardiologists, intensivists, nurses and other health care providers have to cooperate to provide optimal benefit. However, many treatment decisions are opinion-based and few are evidenced-based. This consensus paper provides guidance to

  13. Avoiding failures of steam turbine discs by automated ultrasonic inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morton, J.; Bird, C.R.

    1994-01-01

    Under certain conditions, stress corrosion cracking can cause catastrophic failure of steam turbine discs. Nuclear Electric has developed a range of inspection techniques for disc keyways, bores, buttons and blade attachments and has accumulated substantial experience on their use on plant. This paper gives examples of the techniques used and discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the techniques applied

  14. Avoiding failures of steam turbine discs by automated ultrasonic inspections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bird, C.R.; Morton, J.

    1994-01-01

    Under certain conditions, stress corrosion cracking can cause catastrophic failure of steam turbine discs. Nuclear Electric has developed a range of inspection techniques for disc keyways, bores, buttons and blade attachments and has accumulated substantial experience on their use on plant. This paper gives examples of the techniques used and discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the techniques applied. (Author)

  15. Lupus-Negative Libman-Sacks Endocarditis Complicated by Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murtaza, Ghulam; Iskandar, Joy; Humphrey, Tara; Adhikari, Sujeen; Kuruvilla, Aneesh

    2017-04-01

    Libman-Sacks endocarditis is characterized by sterile and verrucous lesions that predominantly affect the aortic and mitral valves. In most cases, patients do not have significant valvular dysfunction. However, patients with significant valvular dysfunction may present with serious complications such as cardiac failure, arrhythmias, and thromboembolic events. Recently, association of Libman-Sacks endocarditis with antiphospholipid antibody syndrome (APS) has been made. APS is most commonly defined by venous and arterial thrombosis, recurrent pregnancy loss, and thrombocytopenia. While the syndrome can be a primary syndrome, it is usually secondary to systemic lupus erythematosus. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) can be a life-threatening presentation of APS and can occur in 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome. We present a very rare case of a young female patient with lupus-negative Libman-Sacks endocarditis complicated by CAPS.

  16. Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelby L Langer

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

  17. Rooting out causes in failure analysis; Risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keith, Graeme

    2010-07-01

    The Deepwater Horizon disaster was a terrible reminder of the consequences of equipment failure on facilities operating in challenging environments. Thankfully catastrophes on the scale of the Deepwater Horizon are rare, but equipment failure is a daily occurrence on installations around the globe. The consequences range from short unexpected downtime, to a total stop on production. from a brief burst of flaring to lasting environmental damage and from the momentary discomfiture of a worker to incapability or death. (Author)

  18. Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890 ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

  19. Catastrophe Theory: A Unified Model for Educational Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia; Elton, Lewis

    1990-01-01

    Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's theory of motivation at work was used to create a model of change that unifies and extends Lewin's two separate stage and force field models. This new model is used to analyze the behavior of academics as they adapt to the changing university environment. (Author/MLW)

  20. Laboratory tests of catastrophic disruption of rotating bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, A. J. W.; Burchell, M. J.

    2017-11-01

    The results of catastrophic disruption experiments on static and rotating targets are reported. The experiments used cement spheres of diameter 10 cm as the targets. Impacts were by mm sized stainless steel spheres at speeds of between 1 and 7.75 km s-1. Energy densities (Q) in the targets ranged from 7 to 2613 J kg-1. The experiments covered both the cratering and catastrophic disruption regimes. For static, i.e. non-rotating targets the critical energy density for disruption (Q*, the value of Q when the largest surviving target fragment has a mass equal to one half of the pre-impact target mass) was Q* = 1447 ± 90 J kg-1. For rotating targets (median rotation frequency of 3.44 Hz) we found Q* = 987 ± 349 J kg-1, a reduction of 32% in the mean value. This lower value of Q* for rotating targets was also accompanied by a larger scatter on the data, hence the greater uncertainty. We suggest that in some cases the rotating targets behaved as static targets, i.e. broke up with the same catastrophic disruption threshold, but in other cases the rotation helped the break up causing a lower catastrophic disruption threshold, hence both the lower value of Q* and the larger scatter on the data. The fragment mass distributions after impact were similar in both the static and rotating target experiments with similar slopes.

  1. The application of catastrophe theory to medical image analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and

  2. The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Medical Image Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of

  3. The application of catastrophe theory to image analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

    2001-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the inuence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and the

  4. Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.

    Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of

  5. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  6. Standard guide for corrosion-related failure analysis

    CERN Document Server

    American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

    2000-01-01

    1.1 This guide covers key issues to be considered when examining metallic failures when corrosion is suspected as either a major or minor causative factor. 1.2 Corrosion-related failures could include one or more of the following: change in surface appearance (for example, tarnish, rust, color change), pin hole leak, catastrophic structural failure (for example, collapse, explosive rupture, implosive rupture, cracking), weld failure, loss of electrical continuity, and loss of functionality (for example, seizure, galling, spalling, swelling). 1.3 Issues covered include overall failure site conditions, operating conditions at the time of failure, history of equipment and its operation, corrosion product sampling, environmental sampling, metallurgical and electrochemical factors, morphology (mode) or failure, and by considering the preceding, deducing the cause(s) of corrosion failure. This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibili...

  7. Contraceptive failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasch, Vibeke

    2002-01-01

    Most studies focusing on contraceptive failure in relation to pregnancy have focused on contraceptive failure among women having induced abortions, thereby neglecting those women who, despite contraceptive failure, accept the pregnancy and intend to carry the fetus to term. To get a more complete...... picture of the problem of contraceptive failure, this study focuses on contraceptive failure among women with diverse pregnancy outcomes. In all, 3520 pregnant women attending Odense University Hospital were included: 373 had induced abortions, 435 had spontaneous abortions, 97 had ectopic pregnancies......, and 2614 received antenatal care. The variables studied comprise age, partner relationship, number of births, occupational and economical situation, and contraceptive use.Contraceptive failure, defined as contraceptive use (condom, diaphragm, IUD, oral contraception, or another modern method...

  8. Fatigue life analysis of unexpected failure in a lamellar TiAl alloy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chan, K.S.

    1999-07-01

    Unexpected catastrophic failure occurred in specimens of a lamellar TiAl alloy tested by axial fatigue. The failure initiated at locations away from artificial defects introduced to the specimens as crack starters. Fractographic examination of the fracture surface revealed the presence of featureless, low-energy facets that suggested the catastrophic crack may have initiated in one or more large grains that cleaved on a cleavage plane or an interface. A crack growth analysis of fatigue life of the test specimens suggested that the catastrophic crack propagated at stress intensity levels below the large crack threshold. Furthermore, the catastrophic crack propagated at rates that were higher than the average rates exhibited by small cracks, as well as by the large crack under equivalent stress intensity ranges. Because of this, the conventional life prediction approach based on the large crack growth data grossly overpredicted the fatigue life.

  9. Heart Failure

    OpenAIRE

    McMurray, John; Ponikowski, Piotr

    2011-01-01

    Heart failure occurs in 3% to 4% of adults aged over 65 years, usually as a consequence of coronary artery disease or hypertension, and causes breathlessness, effort intolerance, fluid retention, and increased mortality. The 5-year mortality in people with systolic heart failure ranges from 25% to 75%, often owing to sudden death following ventricular arrhythmia. Risks of cardiovascular events are increased in people with left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) or heart failure.

  10. Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-11-01

    Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. The Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale: a useful instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miró, Jordi; Nieto, Rubén; Huguet, Anna

    2008-05-01

    The main aims of this work were to test the psychometric properties of the Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) and to assess the usefulness of the scale when used with whiplash patients. This article reports results from 2 complementary studies. In the first one, the PCS was administered to 280 students and 146 chronic pain patients to examine the psychometric properties of a new Catalan version of the instrument. A confirmatory factor analysis supported a second-order structure, in which 3 second-order factors (ie, rumination, helplessness, and magnification) load in a higher-order factor (ie, catastrophizing). The reliability of the Catalan version was supported by an acceptable internal consistency and test-retest values. Validity was supported by the correlations found among the PCS and pain intensity, pain interference, and depression. The objective of the second study was to evaluate the PCS when used with whiplash patients. In this second study, 141 patients with whiplash disorders participated. In general, the psychometric properties of the PCS were found appropriate, with factor analysis supporting the structure described in patients with chronic pain. Our data suggest that the PCS is a good instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients. The usefulness of the PCS in whiplash disorders has been explored in this study. Results of our work show that the PCS can be a very useful tool to assess catastrophic thinking about pain in whiplash patients.

  12. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome mimicking a malignant pancreatic tumour--a case report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wissen, S.; Bastiaansen, B. A. J.; Stroobants, A. K.; van den Dool, E. J.; Idu, M. M.; Levi, M. [=Marcel M.; Stroes, E. S. G.

    2008-01-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is characterised by rapid onset thromboses, often resistant to conventional anticoagulant treatment, and resulting in life threatening multiple organ dysfunction. The diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome may be difficult, predominantly due to

  13. Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verguet, Stéphane; Riumallo-Herl, Carlos; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; Sumner, Tom; Lalli, Marek; White, Richard G.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Cohen, Ted; Foster, Nicola; Chatterjee, Susmita; Sweeney, Sedona; Baena, Inés Garcia; Lönnroth, Knut; Weil, Diana E.; Vassall, Anna

    2017-01-01

    The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic

  14. Failure analysis on a ruptured petrochemical pipe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harun, Mohd [Industrial Technology Division, Malaysian Nuclear Agency, Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation Malaysia, Bangi, Kajang, Selangor (Malaysia); Shamsudin, Shaiful Rizam; Kamardin, A. [Univ. Malaysia Perlis, Jejawi, Arau (Malaysia). School of Materials Engineering

    2010-08-15

    The failure took place on a welded elbow pipe which exhibited a catastrophic transverse rupture. The failure was located on the welding HAZ region, parallel to the welding path. Branching cracks were detected at the edge of the rupture area. Deposits of corrosion products were also spotted. The optical microscope analysis showed the presence of transgranular failures which were related to the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) and were predominantly caused by the welding residual stress. The significant difference in hardness between the welded area and the pipe confirmed the findings. Moreover, the failure was also caused by the low Mo content in the stainless steel pipe which was detected by means of spark emission spectrometer. (orig.)

  15. Echocardiographic predictors of early in-hospital heart failure during first ST-elevation acute myocardial infarction: does myocardial performance index and left atrial volume improve diagnosis over conventional parameters of left ventricular function?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Machado Cristiano V

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF has been considered a major determinant of early outcome in acute myocardial infarction (AMI. Myocardial performance index (MPI has been associated to early evolution in AMI in a heterogeneous population, including non ST-elevation or previous AMI. Left atrial volume has been related with late evolution after AMI. We evaluated the independent role of clinical and echocardiographic variables including LVEF, MPI and left atrial volume in predicting early in-hospital congestive heart failure (CHF specifically in patients with a first isolated ST-elevation AMI. Methods Echocardiography was performed within 30 hours of chest pain in 95 patients with a first ST-elevation AMI followed during the first week of hospitalization. Several clinical and echocardiographic variables were analyzed. CHF was defined as Killip class ≥ II. Multivariate regression analysis was used to select independent predictor of in-hospital CHF. Results Early in-hospital CHF occurred in 29 (31% of patients. LVEF ≤ 0.45 was the single independent and highly significant predictor of early CHF among other clinical and echocardiographic variables (odds ratio 17.0; [95% CI 4.1 - 70.8]; p Conclusion For patients with first, isolated ST-elevation AMI, LVEF assessed by echocardiography still constitutes a strong and accurate independent predictor of early in-hospital CHF, superior to isolated MPI and left atrial volume in this particular subset of patients.

  16. Catastrophic failure of a raise boring machine during underground reaming operations

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    James, A

    1997-03-01

    Full Text Available rights reserved. 1. INTRODUCTION The process of raise boring (or back reaming) has been in use for over 30 years, and has proved to be a very successful technique in underground mining operations. Its primary use... the overhaul, the equipment was moved from its underground location to the surface. All the drive head bolts were replaced. A cutaway diagram of the drive head installation, showing the relative positions of the cover, drive...

  17. Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

    2017-04-01

    Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

  18. Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

  19. Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruhrmann, G.; Kohring, M.

    1997-01-01

    Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.) [de

  20. Radiation Failures in Intel 14nm Microprocessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossev, Dobrin P.; Duncan, Adam R.; Gadlage, Matthew J.; Roach, Austin H.; Kay, Matthew J.; Szabo, Carl; Berger, Tammy J.; York, Darin A.; Williams, Aaron; LaBel, K.; hide

    2016-01-01

    In this study the 14 nm Intel Broadwell 5th generation core series 5005U-i3 and 5200U-i5 was mounted on Dell Inspiron laptops, MSI Cubi and Gigabyte Brix barebones and tested with Windows 8 and CentOS7 at idle. Heavy-ion-induced hard- and catastrophic failures do not appear to be related to the Intel 14nm Tri-Gate FinFET process. They originate from a small (9 m 140 m) area on the 32nm planar PCH die (not the CPU) as initially speculated. The hard failures seem to be due to a SEE but the exact physical mechanism has yet to be identified. Some possibilities include latch-ups, charge ion trapping or implantation, ion channels, or a combination of those (in biased conditions). The mechanism of the catastrophic failures seems related to the presence of electric power (1.05V core voltage). The 1064 nm laser mimics ionization radiation and induces soft- and hard failures as a direct result of electron-hole pair production, not heat. The 14nm FinFET processes continue to look promising for space radiation environments.

  1. Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

  2. Catastrophic health expenditure and its determinants in Kenya slum communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buigut, Steven; Ettarh, Remare; Amendah, Djesika D

    2015-05-14

    In Kenya, where 60 to 80% of the urban residents live in informal settlements (frequently referred to as slums), out-of-pocket (OOP) payments account for more than a third of national health expenditures. However, little is known on the extent to which these OOP payments are associated with personal or household financial catastrophe in the slums. This paper seeks to examine the incidence and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure among urban slum communities in Kenya. We use a unique dataset on informal settlement residents in Kenya and various approaches that relate households OOP payments for healthcare to total expenditures adjusted for subsistence, or income. We classified households whose OOP was in excess of a predefined threshold as facing catastrophic health expenditures (CHE), and identified the determinants of CHE using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The results indicate that the proportion of households facing CHE varies widely between 1.52% and 28.38% depending on the method and the threshold used. A core set of variables were found to be key determinants of CHE. The number of working adults in a household and membership in a social safety net appear to reduce the risk of catastrophic expenditure. Conversely, seeking care in a public or private hospital increases the risk of CHE. This study suggests that a substantial proportion of residents of informal settlements in Kenya face CHE and would likely forgo health care they need but cannot afford. Mechanisms that pool risk and cost (insurance) are needed to protect slum residents from CHE and improve equity in health care access and payment.

  3. Statistical analysis of nuclear power plant pump failure rate variability: some preliminary results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F.; Whiteman, D.E.

    1984-02-01

    In-Plant Reliability Data System (IPRDS) pump failure data on over 60 selected pumps in four nuclear power plants are statistically analyzed using the Failure Rate Analysis Code (FRAC). A major purpose of the analysis is to determine which environmental, system, and operating factors adequately explain the variability in the failure data. Catastrophic, degraded, and incipient failure severity categories are considered for both demand-related and time-dependent failures. For catastrophic demand-related pump failures, the variability is explained by the following factors listed in their order of importance: system application, pump driver, operating mode, reactor type, pump type, and unidentified plant-specific influences. Quantitative failure rate adjustments are provided for the effects of these factors. In the case of catastrophic time-dependent pump failures, the failure rate variability is explained by three factors: reactor type, pump driver, and unidentified plant-specific influences. Finally, point and confidence interval failure rate estimates are provided for each selected pump by considering the influential factors. Both types of estimates represent an improvement over the estimates computed exclusively from the data on each pump

  4. The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

    2003-01-01

    Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

  5. Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Müller, N; Kierfeld, J

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0 ∘ to 22 ∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

  6. Catastrophic subsidence: An environmental hazard, shelby county, Alabama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamoreaux, Philip E.; Newton, J. G.

    1986-03-01

    Induced sinkholes (catastrophic subsidence) are those caused or accelerated by human activities These sinkholes commonly result from a water level decline due to pumpage Construction activities in a cone of depression greatly increases the likelihood of sinkhole occurrence Almost all occur where cavities develop in unconsolidated deposits overlying solution openings in carbonate rocks. Triggering mechanisms resulting from water level declines are (1) loss of buoyant support of the water, (2) increased gradient and water velocity, (3) water-level fluctuations, and (4) induced recharge Construction activities triggering sinkhole development include ditching, removing overburden, drilling, movement of heavy equipment, blasting and the diversion and impoundment of drainage Triggering mechanisms include piping, saturation, and loading Induced sinkholes resulting from human water development/management activities are most predictable in a youthful karst area impacted by groundwater withdrawals Shape, depth, and timing of catastrophic subsidence can be predicted in general terms Remote sensing techniques are used in prediction of locations of catastrophic subsidence. This provides a basis for design and relocation of structures such as a gas pipeline, dam, or building Utilization of techniques and a case history of the relocation of a pipeline are described

  7. Thermal catastrophe in the plasma sheet boundary layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.A.; Goertz, C.K.; Grossmann, W.

    1986-01-01

    This letter presents a first step towards a substorm model including particle heating and transport in the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL). The heating mechanism discussed is resonant absorption of Alfven waves. For some assumed MHD perturbation incident from the tail lobes onto the plasma sheet, the local heating rate in the PSBL has the form of a resonance function of the one-fluid plasma temperature. Balancing the local heating by convective transport of the heated plasma toward the central plasma sheet, and ''equation of state'' is found for the steady-state PSBL whose solution has the form of a mathematical catastrophe: at a critical value of a parameter containing the incident power flux, the local density, and the convection velocity, the equilibrium temperature jumps discontinuously. Associating this temperature increase with the abrupt onset of the substorm expansion phase, the catastrophe model indicates at least three ways in which the onset may be triggered. Several other consequences related to substorm dynamics are suggested by the simple catastrophe model

  8. Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leffer, T.N.

    2013-01-01

    The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

  9. Heart Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Other diseases. Chronic diseases — such as diabetes, HIV, hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism, or a buildup of iron (hemochromatosis) or ... transplantation or support with a ventricular assist device. Prevention The key to preventing heart failure is to ...

  10. Identifying Clinical Factors Which Predict for Early Failure Patterns Following Resection for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma in Patients Who Received Adjuvant Chemotherapy Without Chemoradiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walston, Steve; Salloum, Joseph; Grieco, Carmine; Wuthrick, Evan; Diaz, Dayssy A; Barney, Christian; Manilchuk, Andrei; Schmidt, Carl; Dillhoff, Mary; Pawlik, Timothy M; Williams, Terence M

    2018-05-04

    The role of radiation therapy (RT) in resected pancreatic cancer (PC) remains incompletely defined. We sought to determine clinical variables which predict for local-regional recurrence (LRR) to help select patients for adjuvant RT. We identified 73 patients with PC who underwent resection and adjuvant gemcitabine-based chemotherapy alone. We performed detailed radiologic analysis of first patterns of failure. LRR was defined as recurrence of PC within standard postoperative radiation volumes. Univariate analyses (UVA) were conducted using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate analyses (MVA) utilized the Cox proportional hazard ratio model. Factors significant on UVA were used for MVA. At median follow-up of 20 months, rates of local-regional recurrence only (LRRO) were 24.7%, LRR as a component of any failure 68.5%, metastatic recurrence (MR) as a component of any failure 65.8%, and overall disease recurrence (OR) 90.5%. On UVA, elevated postoperative CA 19-9 (>90 U/mL), pathologic lymph node positive (pLN+) disease, and higher tumor grade were associated with increased LRR, MR, and OR. On MVA, elevated postoperative CA 19-9 and pLN+ were associated with increased MR and OR. In addition, positive resection margin was associated with increased LRRO on both UVA and MVA. About 25% of patients with PC treated without adjuvant RT develop LRRO as initial failure. The only independent predictor of LRRO was positive margin, while elevated postoperative CA 19-9 and pLN+ were associated with predicting MR and overall survival. These data may help determine which patients benefit from intensification of local therapy with radiation.

  11. Functional Catastrophe Analysis of Collapse Mechanism for Shallow Tunnels with Considering Settlement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Limit analysis is a practical and meaningful method to predict the stability of geomechanical properties. This work investigates the pore water effect on new collapse mechanisms and possible collapsing block shapes of shallow tunnels with considering the effects of surface settlement. The analysis is performed within the framework of upper bound theorem. Furthermore, the NL nonlinear failure criterion is used to examine the influence of different factors on the collapsing shape and the minimum supporting pressure in shallow tunnels. Analytical solutions derived by functional catastrophe theory for the two different shape curves which describe the distinct characteristics of falling blocks up and down the water level are obtained by virtual work equations under the variational principle. By considering that the mechanical properties of soil are not affected by the presence of underground water, the strength parameters in NL failure criterion can be taken to be the same under and above the water table. According to the numerical results in this work, the influences on the size of collapsing block different parameters have are presented in the tables and the upper bounds on the loads required to resist collapse are derived and illustrated in the form of supporting forces graphs that account for the variation of the embedded depth and other factors.

  12. Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

    2018-05-01

    Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

  13. Philosophical Anthropology, Ethics and Political Philosophy in an Age of Impending Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arran Gare

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available  In this paper it is argued that philosophical anthropology is central to ethics and politics. The denial of this has facilitated the triumph of debased notions of humans developed by Hobbes which has facilitated the enslavement of people to the logic of the global market, a logic which is now destroying the ecological conditions for civilization and most life on Earth. Reviving the classical understanding of the central place of philosophical anthropology to ethics and politics, the early work of Hegel and Marx is explicated, defended and further developed by interpreting this through developments in post-mechanistic science. Overcoming the opposition between the sciences and the humanities, it is suggested that the conception of humans developed in this way can orient people in their struggle for the liberty to avert a global ecological catastrophe.

  14. Landslide Catastrophes and Disaster Risk Reduction: A GIS Framework for Landslide Prevention and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Wang

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available As catastrophic phenomena, landslides often cause large-scale socio-economic destruction including loss of life, economic collapse, and human injury. In addition, landslides can impair the functioning of critical infrastructure and destroy cultural heritage and ecological systems. In order to build a more landslide resistant and resilient society, an original GIS-based decision support system is put forth in order to help emergency managers better prepare for and respond to landslide disasters. The GIS-based landslide monitoring and management system includes a Central Repository System (CRS, Disaster Data Processing Modules (DDPM, a Command and Control System (CCS and a Portal Management System (PMS. This architecture provides valuable insights into landslide early warning, landslide risk and vulnerability analyses, and critical infrastructure damage assessments. Finally, internet-based communications are used to support landslide disaster modelling, monitoring and management.

  15. Analyses of fatalities from natural catastrophes in different income groups over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Tobias

    2017-04-01

    Identifying not only economic and insured losses but also numbers of fatalities from natural catastrophes provides new information on resilience and prevention measures in the countries affected. In this talk, we examine how fatalities from Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database, caused by natural disasters have developed. In addition to the standard approach based on fatalities by country, we introduced a new measure, "fatalities per million inhabitants", and factored in population development over time. The World Bank definition was used to determine the wealth classification of individual countries. This methodology enables us to compare countries with different population sizes and thus produce an index for humanitarian impact. The analyses are key information on ascertaining whether prevention measures or early-warning systems have in fact reduced the number of fatalities in recent decades (1980-2016).

  16. Early detection of materials degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyendorf, Norbert

    2017-02-01

    Lightweight components for transportation and aerospace applications are designed for an estimated lifecycle, taking expected mechanical and environmental loads into account. The main reason for catastrophic failure of components within the expected lifecycle are material inhomogeneities, like pores and inclusions as origin for fatigue cracks, that have not been detected by NDE. However, material degradation by designed or unexpected loading conditions or environmental impacts can accelerate the crack initiation or growth. Conventional NDE methods are usually able to detect cracks that are formed at the end of the degradation process, but methods for early detection of fatigue, creep, and corrosion are still a matter of research. For conventional materials ultrasonic, electromagnetic, or thermographic methods have been demonstrated as promising. Other approaches are focused to surface damage by using optical methods or characterization of the residual surface stresses that can significantly affect the creation of fatigue cracks. For conventional metallic materials, material models for nucleation and propagation of damage have been successfully applied for several years. Material microstructure/property relations are well established and the effect of loading conditions on the component life can be simulated. For advanced materials, for example carbon matrix composites or ceramic matrix composites, the processes of nucleation and propagation of damage is still not fully understood. For these materials NDE methods can not only be used for the periodic inspections, but can significantly contribute to the material scientific knowledge to understand and model the behavior of composite materials.

  17. A probability model for the failure of pressure containing parts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, H.M.

    1978-01-01

    The model provides a method of estimating the order of magnitude of the leakage failure probability of pressure containing parts. It is a fatigue based model which makes use of the statistics available for both specimens and vessels. Some novel concepts are introduced but essentially the model simply quantifies the obvious i.e. that failure probability increases with increases in stress levels, number of cycles, volume of material and volume of weld metal. A further model based on fracture mechanics estimates the catastrophic fraction of leakage failures. (author)

  18. Marked improvement in the success rate of medical management of early pregnancy failure following the implementation of a novel institutional protocol and treatment guidelines: a follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colleselli, V; Nell, T; Bartosik, T; Brunner, C; Ciresa-Koenig, A; Wildt, L; Marth, C; Seeber, B

    2016-11-01

    To analyze the success rate, time to passage of tissue and subjective patient experience of a newly implemented protocol for medical management of early pregnancy failure (EPF) over a 2-year period. A retrospective chart review of all patients with early pregnancy failure primarily opting for medical management was performed. 200 mg mifepristone were administered orally, followed by a single vaginal dose of 800 mcg misoprostol after 36-48 h. We followed-up with our patients using a written questionnaire. 167 women were included in the present study. We observed an overall success rate of 92 %, defined as no need for surgical management after medication administration. We could not identify predictive values for success in a multivariate regression analysis. Most patients (84 %) passed tissue within 6 h after misoprostol administration. The protocol was well tolerated with a low incidence of side effects. Pain was managed well with sufficient analgesics. Responders to the questionnaire felt adequately informed prior to treatment and rated their overall experience as positive. The adaption of the institutional medical protocol resulted in a marked improvement of success rate when compared to the previously used protocol (92 vs. 61 %). We credit this increase to the adjusted medication schema as well as to targeted physician education on the expected course and interpretation of outcome measures. Our results underscore that the medical management of EPF is a safe and effective alternative to surgical evacuation in the clinical setting.

  19. Predictors of treatment failure among pulmonary tuberculosis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Early identification of Tuberculosis (TB) treatment failure using cost effective means is urgently needed in developing nations. The study set out to describe affordable predictors of TB treatment failure in an African setting. Objective: To determine the predictors of treatment failure among patients with sputum ...

  20. Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borisevich, Nikolaj

    2001-01-01

    The radioactive blow-outs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant catastrophe reached many states. The largest amount of them (according to experts' estimations - 70%) fell out on the Belarus territory. The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. More than 14 years have passed since the Chernobyl NPP accident but some of the problems caused by the catastrophe have not been solved. This is bound up, first of all, with a high collective dosage absorbed by the population, with difficulties in forecasting and prophylactics of remote radiological effects, with ecological and economic crisis. The consequences of the disaster greatly affect all the aspects of vital activities of the affected regions and the state as a whole. Destructive tendencies have been revealed in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population inhabiting the contaminated territory and resettled as well, require considerable optimisation. Negative factors of the Chernobyl catastrophe, which are significant for human health can be divided into two groups as follows: radiation-based, directly related to influence of ionising radiation and non radiation based, related to changes in habitat and prolonged psychological stress. The specific peculiarities of psychogenic disorders caused by the catastrophe are determined by the following reasons: insufficient knowledge of radiation effects; constant apprehension for the health and well-being of themselves and their families, especially children; unexpected change of the life stereotype (forced resettlement, the break of the former life, changing the place and the character of work, etc.); the necessity of constant keeping precaution measures and prophylactic

  1. Failure Forecasting in Triaxially Stressed Sandstones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crippen, A.; Bell, A. F.; Curtis, A.; Main, I. G.

    2017-12-01

    Precursory signals to fracturing events have been observed to follow power-law accelerations in spatial, temporal, and size distributions leading up to catastrophic failure. In previous studies this behavior was modeled using Voight's relation of a geophysical precursor in order to perform `hindcasts' by solving for failure onset time. However, performing this analysis in retrospect creates a bias, as we know an event happened, when it happened, and we can search data for precursors accordingly. We aim to remove this retrospective bias, thereby allowing us to make failure forecasts in real-time in a rock deformation laboratory. We triaxially compressed water-saturated 100 mm sandstone cores (Pc= 25MPa, Pp = 5MPa, σ = 1.0E-5 s-1) to the point of failure while monitoring strain rate, differential stress, AEs, and continuous waveform data. Here we compare the current `hindcast` methods on synthetic and our real laboratory data. We then apply these techniques to increasing fractions of the data sets to observe the evolution of the failure forecast time with precursory data. We discuss these results as well as our plan to mitigate false positives and minimize errors for real-time application. Real-time failure forecasting could revolutionize the field of hazard mitigation of brittle failure processes by allowing non-invasive monitoring of civil structures, volcanoes, and possibly fault zones.

  2. Early Bayesian modeling of a potassium lab-on-a-chip for monitoring of heart failure patients at increased risk of hyperkalaemia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Wetering, Gijs; Steuten, Lotte Maria Gertruda; von Birgelen, Clemens; Adang, E.M.; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: Innovative point-of-care (POC) diagnostics are likely to have a strong impact on 18 health care. The aim of this study is to conduct an early assessment of a point-of-care chip 19 for the detection of a pathological deviation of the potassium levels in patients at increased 20 risk,

  3. Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajkovic, Milan; Skoric, Milos

    2009-01-01

    Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

  4. Catastrophic Disruption Threshold and Maximum Deflection from Kinetic Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, A. F.

    2017-12-01

    The use of a kinetic impactor to deflect an asteroid on a collision course with Earth was described in the NASA Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Analysis of Alternatives (2007) as the most mature approach for asteroid deflection and mitigation. The NASA DART mission will demonstrate asteroid deflection by kinetic impact at the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 65803 Didymos in October, 2022. The kinetic impactor approach is considered to be applicable with warning times of 10 years or more and with hazardous asteroid diameters of 400 m or less. In principle, a larger kinetic impactor bringing greater kinetic energy could cause a larger deflection, but input of excessive kinetic energy will cause catastrophic disruption of the target, leaving possibly large fragments still on collision course with Earth. Thus the catastrophic disruption threshold limits the maximum deflection from a kinetic impactor. An often-cited rule of thumb states that the maximum deflection is 0.1 times the escape velocity before the target will be disrupted. It turns out this rule of thumb does not work well. A comparison to numerical simulation results shows that a similar rule applies in the gravity limit, for large targets more than 300 m, where the maximum deflection is roughly the escape velocity at momentum enhancement factor β=2. In the gravity limit, the rule of thumb corresponds to pure momentum coupling (μ=1/3), but simulations find a slightly different scaling μ=0.43. In the smaller target size range that kinetic impactors would apply to, the catastrophic disruption limit is strength-controlled. A DART-like impactor won't disrupt any target asteroid down to significantly smaller size than the 50 m below which a hazardous object would not penetrate the atmosphere in any case unless it is unusually strong.

  5. TOVS data analysis during the catastrophic floods of Bangladesh of 1987 and 1988 and Cyclone of 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choudhury, A.M.

    1990-08-01

    Bangladesh has witnessed catastrophic floods in recent years so much so that in 1988 two-thirds of the country was flooded. This had created a world-wide attention. NOAA AVHRR and LANDSAT TM data have been analyzed to monitor floods. TOVS data prior to flooding, have also been analyzed to find out the causes of abnormal rainfall in the catchment area, responsible for flooding. TOVS data of the cyclone of 25 May 1985 which hit Bangladesh have also been analyzed. Satellite imagery can be very effectively used in the early warning of floods and cyclones. (author). 4 refs

  6. Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, G.

    2009-04-01

    The decision by civic authorities to evacuate an area threatened by a natural hazard is especially fraught when the population in harm's way is extremely large, and where there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial footprint, scale, and strike time of a hazard event. Traditionally viewed as a hazard forecasting issue, civil authorities turn to scientists for advice on a potentially imminent dangerous event. However, the level of scientific confidence varies enormously from one peril and crisis situation to another. With superior observational data, meteorological and hydrological hazards are generally better forecast than geological hazards. But even with Atlantic hurricanes, the track and intensity of a hurricane can change significantly within a few hours. This complicated and delayed the decision to call an evacuation of New Orleans when threatened by Hurricane Katrina, and would present a severe dilemma if a major hurricane were appearing to head for New York. Evacuation needs to be perceived as a risk issue, requiring the expertise of catastrophe risk modellers as well as geoscientists. Faced with evidence of a great earthquake in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, seismologists were reluctant to give a tsunami warning without more direct sea observations. Yet, from a risk perspective, the risk to coastal populations would have warranted attempts at tsunami warning, even though there was significant uncertainty in the hazard forecast, and chance of a false alarm. A systematic coherent risk-based framework for evacuation decision-making exists, which weighs the advantages of an evacuation call against the disadvantages. Implicitly and qualitatively, such a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken by civic authorities whenever an evacuation is considered. With the progress in catastrophe risk modelling, such an analysis can be made explicit and quantitative, providing a transparent audit trail for the decision process. A stochastic event set, the core of a

  7. How To Respond to Catastrophic Events in Supply Chain Management

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Sooyeon

    2011-01-01

    In March of 2011, a massive earthquake and tsunami struck into Japan. Soon after this event, Toyota in the UK announced that their production had to been halted caused by disruption on supply chain relationship with Japan. Like this, a catastrophic event disturbs not only domestic situation but also international business. Supply chain is one of the most affected areas and also capable to control on business at the same time when a disaster occurs. In this work, how to respond supply chain sy...

  8. Catastrophic events leading to de facto limits on liability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Okrent, D.

    1977-05-01

    This study conducts an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability. Several potential situations are examined: dam rupture, aircraft crash into a sports stadium, chemical plant accident, shipping disaster, and a toxic drug disaster. All of these events are estimated to have probabilities per year similar to or larger than a major nuclear accident and they are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, such as insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  9. Catastrophes and nuclear accidents in the former USSR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robeau, D.

    2001-01-01

    In the former USSR, the nuclear safety, the environment protection and the preservation of workers and population health were not the first priority for the Soviet Union authorities. The fabrication of nuclear weapons, the construction of nuclear submarines and the production of an abundant energy source were the only goals at that time. This book describes and explains the circumstances of the nuclear catastrophes and accidents that have occurred during this era. It tries to estimate their impacts on populations and environment and their possible consequences in a near or far future. (J.S.)

  10. ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt

    2013-01-01

    origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...... induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells...

  11. Cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking in a college population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smerz, Kelly E; Guastello, Stephen J

    2008-04-01

    A cusp catastrophe model for binge drinking behavior was developed and tested with attitude toward alcohol consumption and peer influence as the two control parameters. Similar models were also developed for frequency and quantity of alcohol use. Participants were 1,247 students who completed the Long Form of the Core Alcohol and Drug Survey. The results were strongest for the binge drinking criterion (R(2) = .90), compared to a linear model (R(2) = .34) that is usually associated with the Theory of Planned Behavior or Theory of Reasoned Action. The results have numerous implications for the development of interventions and for future research.

  12. Diversification through Catastrophe Bonds: Lessons from the Subprime Financial Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Carayannopoulos; M Fabricio Perez

    2015-01-01

    Are catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) zero-beta investments? Are they a valuable new source of diversification for investors? We study these questions by analysing the dynamic relations of CAT bond returns and the returns of the stock, corporate bond and government bond markets. Our multivariate GARCH model results provide evidence that CAT bonds are zero-beta assets only in non-crisis periods. We document that CAT bonds were not immune to the effects of the recent financial crisis. With the coll...

  13. Mitochondrial markers predict recurrence, metastasis and tamoxifen-resistance in breast cancer patients: Early detection of treatment failure with companion diagnostics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotgia, Federica; Fiorillo, Marco; Lisanti, Michael P

    2017-09-15

    Here, we used a data-mining and informatics approach to discover new biomarkers of resistance to hormonal therapy in breast cancer. More specifically, we investigated whether nuclear-encoded genes associated with mitochondrial biogenesis can be used to predict tumor recurrence, distant metastasis and treatment failure in high-risk breast cancer patients. Overall, this strategy allowed us to directly provide in silico validation of the prognostic value of these mitochondrial components in large and clinically relevant patient populations, with >15 years of follow-up data. For this purpose, we employed a group of 145 ER(+) luminal A breast cancer patients, with lymph-node (LN) metastasis at diagnosis, that were treated with tamoxifen, but not any chemotherapy agents. Using this approach, we identified >60 new individual mitochondrial biomarkers that predicted treatment failure and tumor recurrence, with hazard-ratios (HR) of up to 4.17 ( p =2.2e-07). These include mitochondrial chaperones (HSPD1, HSPA9), membrane proteins (VDAC2, TOMM70A) and anti-oxidants (SOD2), as well as 18 different mitochondrial ribosomal proteins (MRPs) and >20 distinct components of the OXPHOS complexes. In addition, we combined 4 mitochondrial proteins (HSPD1, UQCRB, MRPL15, COX17), to generate a compact mitochondrial gene signature, associated with a HR of 5.34 ( p =1e-09). This signature also successfully predicted distant metastasis and was effective in larger groups of ER(+) ( N =2,447), basal ( N =540) and HER2(+) ( N =193) breast cancers. It was also effective in all breast cancers ( N =3,180), if considered together as a single group. Based on this analysis, we conclude that mitochondrial biogenesis should be considered as a new therapeutic target for overcoming tumor recurrence, distant metastasis and treatment failure in patients with breast cancer. In summary, we identified individual mitochondrial biomarkers and 2 compact mitochondrial gene signatures that can be used to predict

  14. Protocol-based image-guided salvage brachytherapy. Early results in patients with local failure of prostate cancer after radiation therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lahmer, G.; Lotter, M.; Kreppner, S.; Fietkau, R.; Strnad, V. [University Hospital Erlangen (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology

    2013-08-15

    Purpose: To assess the overall clinical outcome of protocol-based image-guided salvage pulsed-dose-rate brachytherapy for locally recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy failure particularly regarding feasibility and side effects. Patients and methods: Eighteen consecutive patients with locally recurrent prostate cancer (median age, 69 years) were treated during 2005-2011 with interstitial PDR brachytherapy (PDR-BT) as salvage brachytherapy after radiotherapy failure. The treatment schedule was PDR-BT two times with 30 Gy (pulse dose 0.6 Gy/h, 24 h per day) corresponding to a total dose of 60 Gy. Dose volume adaptation was performed with the aim of optimal coverage of the whole prostate (V{sub 100} > 95 %) simultaneously respecting the protocol-based dose volume constraints for the urethra (D{sub 0.1} {sub cc} < 130 %) and the rectum (D{sub 2} {sub cc} < 50-60 %) taking into account the previous radiation therapy. Local relapse after radiotherapy (external beam irradiation, brachytherapy with J-125 seeds or combination) was confirmed mostly via choline-PET and increased PSA levels. The primary endpoint was treatment-related late toxicities - particularly proctitis, anal incontinence, cystitis, urinary incontinence, urinary frequency/urgency, and urinary retention according to the Common Toxicity Criteria. The secondary endpoint was PSA-recurrence-free survival. Results: We registered urinary toxicities only. Grade 2 and grade 3 toxicities were observed in up to 11.1 % (2/18) and 16.7 % (3/18) of patients, respectively. The most frequent late-event grade 3 toxicity was urinary retention in 17 % (3/18) of patients. No late gastrointestinal side effects occurred. The biochemical PSA-recurrence-free survival probability at 3 years was 57.1 %. The overall survival at 3 years was 88.9 %; 22 % (4/18) of patients developed metastases. The median follow-up time for all patients after salvage BT was 21 months (range, 8-77 months). Conclusion: Salvage PDR

  15. Failure Modes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, K. P.; Burcharth, H. F.; Ibsen, Lars Bo

    1999-01-01

    The present appendix contains the derivation of ten different limit state equations divided on three different failure modes. Five of the limit state equations can be used independently of the characteristics of the subsoil, whereas the remaining five can be used for either drained or undrained s...

  16. Thermal radiation from fireballs on failure of liquefied petroleum gas storage vessels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, T.; Hawksworth, S. [Health and Safety Executive, Health and Safety Lab., Buxton (United Kingdom); Gosse, A. [BG Technology, Loughborough (United Kingdom)

    2000-05-01

    Fire impingement on vessels containing pressure liquefied gases can result in catastrophic failure of the vessel leading to a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE). If the gas is flammable, this can result in the formation of very large fireballs. In safety assessments where catastrophic vessel failure is identified as a real possibility, the risk of death from a fireball tends to be higher than that from missiles or blast. Since many of the physical processes which take place in a BLEVE are scale dependent, a series of tests were undertaken at a large scale where 2 tonne propane vessels were taken to failure in a jet fire and the vessel response, mode of failure and consequence of failure characterised. The measurements taken by the Health and Safety Laboratory and BG Technology relating to fireball formation are described. (Author)

  17. Catastrophic complication following injection and extracorporeal shock wave therapy of a medial femoral condyle subchondral cystic lesion in a 14 year old Arabian mare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darla K. Moser

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This report describes fibrous cyst lining injection and extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT of a medial femoral condyle (MFC subchondral cystic lesion (SCL resulting in catastrophic MFC fracture in an Arabian mare. The mare was presented for evaluation of a severe hind limb lameness of approximately 4 months duration. On presentation, a non-weight bearing lameness of the left hind limb with severe effusion and soft tissue swelling of the stifle region was noted. Radiographic evaluation of the stifle revealed a large SCL of the MFC with associated osteoarthritis. Arthroscopic guided intra-lesional injection of the SCL with corticosteroids and autologous bone marrow concentrate was performed followed by ESWT of the MFC. The mare was discharged walking comfortably 48-hours post-operatively. An acute increase in lameness was noted 14 days post-operatively. Imaging revealed catastrophic fracture of the left MFC. Possible mechanisms leading to failure of the MFC secondary to the described treatment are discussed.

  18. Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

    2017-03-01

    The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

  19. Types of Heart Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Introduction Types of Heart Failure Classes of Heart Failure Heart Failure in Children Advanced Heart Failure • Causes and ... and procedures related to heart disease and stroke. Heart Failure Questions to Ask Your Doctor Use these questions ...

  20. Classes of Heart Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Introduction Types of Heart Failure Classes of Heart Failure Heart Failure in Children Advanced Heart Failure • Causes and ... and Advanced HF • Tools and Resources • Personal Stories Heart Failure Questions to Ask Your Doctor Use these questions ...

  1. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  2. Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

    2015-01-01

    Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

  3. Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

    2014-01-01

    The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

  4. Tatra's forests will recover from catastrophe for decades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haluza, I.

    2004-01-01

    Windy tornado in Tatra's national park (TANAP, High Tatras, Slovakia) at the end of 2004 caused extensive ecological catastrophe and economic losses. Wind has totally damaged the trees in more than one fourth of forest area, which is administrated by state forests of TANAP. Next fourth of forest area has impaired structure. Mostly coniferous forests have fallen down not only in High Tatras, but also in Horehronie, Kysuce, Orava and Spis. According to estimates around 2.5 million cubic meters of wood have lain on the ground in High Tatras. This wood must be precipitately processed. In another regions totally from 800 to 900 thousands cubic meters are overcame by wind. Ecological catastrophe has come in High Tatras. Totally damaged large forests areas need to be recovered for long decades. 90 per cent of annual Slovakian wood cutting represents totally 2.5 million cubic meters. The state will invest in forest recovery from sale of calamity stuff. Reforestation of one hectare of forest costs from 80 to 90 thousands Slovak crowns (∼2666-3000 USD). Another remedies at the age to five years represent from 40 to 50 thousands Slovak crowns (1333-16666 USD). Around 1.6 billion Slovak crown (∼53.333 million USD) will be needed for reforestation of 12 thousands hectares of TANAP

  5. Snow Catastrophe Conditions: What is its Impact on Orthopedic Injuries?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Mardani-Kivi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background:   Iran places sixth amongst high risk natural disaster countries and Guilan province of Iran shoulders a large amount of socio-economic burden due to snow catastrophes. The more knowledge of circumstances we have, the more efficient our future encounters will be. Methods: In this retrospective study, of all of the patients admitted to Poursina Hospital due to snow and ice related trauma in the first two weeks of February 2014, 306 cases were found eligible for entry into the present study. Results: Of the 306 eligible patients (383 injuries, there were 175 men (57.2% and 131 women (42.8%. Most patients suffered from orthopedic injuries (81% and the most common fractures were distal radius fractures in the upper extremities and hip fractures in the lower extremities. Slipping was the most common and motor vehicle accidents had the rarest injury mechanisms. It was shown that the frequency of injuries were higher on icy days (67.6% than snowy days (32.4%. Conclusions: Snow crises may lead to increased risk of slipping and falling situations, especially on icy days. The peak of injury rates is a few days after snowfall with the most common injury being distal radius fracture. Providing essential instructions and supporting resource allocation to better handle such catastrophes may improve outcomes.

  6. A catastrophe model for the prospect-utility theory question.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliva, Terence A; McDade, Sean R

    2008-07-01

    Anomalies have played a big part in the analysis of decision making under risk. Both expected utility and prospect theories were born out of anomalies exhibited by actual decision making behavior. Since the same individual can use both expected utility and prospect approaches at different times, it seems there should be a means of uniting the two. This paper turns to nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS), specifically a catastrophe model, to help suggest an 'out of the box' line of solution toward integration. We use a cusp model to create a value surface whose control dimensions are involvement and gains versus losses. By including 'involvement' as a variable the importance of the individual's psychological state is included, and it provides a rationale for how decision makers' changes from expected utility to prospect might occur. Additionally, it provides a possible explanation for what appears to be even more irrational decisions that individuals make when highly emotionally involved. We estimate the catastrophe model using a sample of 997 gamblers who attended a casino and compare it to the linear model using regression. Hence, we have actual data from individuals making real bets, under real conditions.

  7. Impact of a natural catastrophe on life events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janney, J G; Masuda, M; Holmes, T H

    1977-06-01

    A major earthquake struck Peru in May 1970. This post-quake study compares the impact of this natural catastrophe on the residents of two different cities; one was 90 percent levelled by the quake and one was untouched. A relatively homogeneous population of Peruvians obtained from the two cities completed two paper-and-pencil tests, the Social Readjustment Rating Questionnaire (SRRQ) and the Schedule of Recent Experience (SRE). Both questionnaires were adapted from the SRRQ which had been translated for studies in Spain and EL Salvador. The data from the SRRQ generated two Peruvian Social Readjustment Rating Scales (SRRS), one for each of the cities studied. The differences in the two scales were striking. The lowest intra-cultural correlation yet observed on four studies was obtained. Comparison with a United States population yielded no significant relationships (rs = 0.15), the first time this has occurred in nine intercultural studies. A comparison of the profile of items generated by their subjective magnitude estimations indicated striking qualitative and quantitative differences between the two populations. The SRE generated frequency of occurrence of items and life change magnitudes in five proscribed time intervals. Significant differences in these two quantitative indices (including the health change items) were observed in the two populations in some of the time intervals and not in others. The data formulated suggest that the occurrence of a natural catastrophe--an earthquake which devastated one city--accounted for much of the difference observed between the populations of the two cities.

  8. The inherent catastrophic traps in retrograde CTO PCI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Eugene B; Tsuchikane, Etsuo

    2018-05-01

    When we learn to drive, our driving instructor tells us how to check the side mirror and turn your head to check the blind spot before changing lanes. He tells us how to stop at stop signs, how to drive in slippery conditions, the safe stopping distances, and these all make our driving safe. Similarly, when we learn PCI, our mentors teach us to seat the guiding catheter co-axially, to wire the vessel safely, to deliver balloon and stents over the wire, to watch the pressure of the guiding, in order that we perform PCI safely and evade complications. In retrograde CTO PCI, there is no such published teaching. Also many individual mentors have not had the wide experience to see all the possible complications of retrograde CTO PCI and, therefore, may not be able to warn their apprentice. As the number of retrograde procedures increase worldwide, there is a corresponding increase in catastrophic complications, many of which, we as experts, can see are easily avoidable. To breach this gap in knowledge, this article describes 12 commonly met inherent traps in retrograde CTO PCI. They are inherent because by arranging our equipment in the manner to perform retrograde CTO PCI, these complications are either induced directly or happen easily. We hope this work will enhance safety of retrograde CTO PCI and avoid many catastrophic complications for our readers and operators. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. An Early View of Real-World Patient Response to Sacubitril/Valsartan: A Retrospective Study of Patients with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antol, Dana Drzayich; Casebeer, Adrianne Waldman; DeClue, Richard W; Stemkowski, Stephen; Russo, Patricia A

    2018-06-01

    Sacubitril/valsartan has been established as an effective treatment for heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction based on clinical trial data; however, little is known about its use or impact in real-world practice. This study included data from medical and pharmacy claims and medical records review for patients (n = 200) who initiated sacubitril/valsartan between August 2015 and March 2016 preceding issuance of American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA)/Heart Failure Society of America (HFSA) focused update on new pharmacological therapy for HF (May 2016), which included recommendations for sacubitril/valsartan. A within-subject analysis compared symptoms and healthcare resource utilization before and after treatment initiation. Patients treated with sacubitril/valsartan had multiple comorbidities, and nearly all had previous treatment for HF. Most patients initiated sacubitril/valsartan at the lowest dose of 24/26 mg twice a day (BID), which remained unchanged during the observation period for half of the patients. During the first 6 weeks of treatment, few patients discontinued sacubitril/valsartan treatment (5.5%), and only 17% achieved the target dose of 97/103 mg BID after 4 months of treatment. The proportion of patients with ≥ 1 all-cause inpatient stay decreased significantly between the pre-initiation period (27.5%) and the post-initiation period (17.0%), P = 0.009. Fatigue was noted in 51.8% of patients pre-initiation and 39.5% post-initiation, P = 0.027. Shortness of breath was documented for 66.7% of patients pre-initiation and 51.8% post-initiation, P = 0.008. The findings of this real-world investigation suggest sacubitril/valsartan is associated with symptom improvements and a reduction in hospitalizations within 4 months of treatment for patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction. Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation.

  10. The relationship between parental catastrophizing about child pain and distress in response to medical procedures in the context of childhood cancer treatment: a longitudinal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caes, Line; Goubert, Liesbet; Devos, Patricia; Verlooy, Joris; Benoit, Yves; Vervoort, Tine

    2014-08-01

    Children with leukemia frequently undergo invasive medical procedures, such as lumbar punctures (LPs) and bone marrow aspirations (BMAs). To date, cross-sectional evidence indicates that LP/BMA procedures continue to elicit distress over the course of treatment in children and parents. The current study used prospective analyses investigating in 28 children diagnosed with leukemia, the course of parental and child distress when confronted with consecutive LP/BMA procedures and potential moderation by catastrophic thinking. Parents' level of catastrophic thoughts was assessed before the first treatment-related LP/BMA, while child and parent distress was reported on after each LP/BMA procedure. Whereas parental distress decreased over time among low catastrophizing parents, LP/BMA procedures remained highly distressing for high catastrophizing parents. Child distress during LP/BMA procedures increased over time and was positively related with parental distress. These findings stress the importance of targeting child and parent distress as early as possible in treatment. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Catastrophizing Interferes with Cognitive Modulation of Pain in Women with Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellingson, Laura D; Stegner, Aaron J; Schwabacher, Isaac J; Lindheimer, Jacob B; Cook, Dane B

    2018-02-21

    Pain modulation is a critical function of the nociceptive system that includes the ability to engage descending pain control systems to maintain a functional balance between facilitation and inhibition of incoming sensory stimuli. Dysfunctional pain modulation is associated with increased risk for chronic pain and is characteristic of fibromyalgia (FM). Catastrophizing is also common in FM. However, its influence on pain modulation is poorly understood. To determine the role of catastrophizing on central nervous system processing during pain modulation in FM via examining brain responses and pain sensitivity during an attention-distraction paradigm. Twenty FM patients and 18 healthy controls (CO) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while receiving pain stimuli, administered alone and during distracting cognitive tasks. Pain ratings were assessed after each stimulus. Catastrophizing was assessed with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). The ability to modulate pain during distraction varied among FM patients and was associated with catastrophizing. This was demonstrated by significant positive relationships between PCS scores and pain ratings (P modulation did not differ between FM and CO (P > 0.05). FM patients with higher levels of catastrophizing were less able to distract themselves from pain, indicative of catastrophizing-related impairments in pain modulation. These results suggest that the tendency to catastrophize interacts with attention-resource allocation and may represent a mechanism of chronic pain exacerbation and/or maintenance. Reducing catastrophizing may improve FM symptoms via improving central nervous system regulation of pain.

  12. Failure Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iorio, A.F.; Crespi, J.C.

    1987-01-01

    After ten years of operation at the Atucha I Nuclear Power Station a gear belonging to a pressurized heavy water reactor refuelling machine, failed. The gear box was used to operate the inlet-outlet heavy-water valve of the machine. Visual examination of the gear device showed an absence of lubricant and that several gear teeth were broken at the root. Motion was transmitted with a speed-reducing device with controlled adjustable times in order to produce a proper fitness of the valve closure. The aim of this paper is to discuss the results of the gear failure analysis in order to recommend the proper solution to prevent further failures. (Author)

  13. Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diebel, Martin

    2017-01-01

    The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

  14. Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

    2011-02-01

    The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

  15. DNA double-strand breaks and Aurora B mislocalization induced by exposure of early mitotic cells to H2O2 appear to increase chromatin bridges and resultant cytokinesis failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Min-Guk; Ahn, Ju-Hyun; Choi, Hee-Song; Lee, Jae-Ho

    2017-07-01

    Aneuploidy, an abnormal number of chromosomes that is a hallmark of cancer cells, can arise from tetraploid/binucleated cells through a failure of cytokinesis. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) have been implicated in various diseases, including cancer. However, the nature and role of ROS in cytokinesis progression and related mechanisms has not been clearly elucidated. Here, using time-lapse analysis of asynchronously growing cells and immunocytochemical analyses of synchronized cells, we found that hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) treatment at early mitosis (primarily prometaphase) significantly induced cytokinesis failure. Cytokinesis failure and the resultant formation of binucleated cells containing nucleoplasmic bridges (NPBs) seemed to be caused by increases in DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) and subsequent unresolved chromatin bridges. We further found that H 2 O 2 induced mislocalization of Aurora B during mitosis. All of these effects were attenuated by pretreatment with N-acetyl-L-cysteine (NAC) or overexpression of Catalase. Surprisingly, the PARP inhibitor PJ34 also reduced H 2 O 2 -induced Aurora B mislocalization and binucleated cell formation. Results of parallel experiments with etoposide, a topoisomerase IIα inhibitor that triggers DNA DSBs, suggested that both DNA DSBs and Aurora B mislocalization contribute to chromatin bridge formation. Aurora B mislocalization also appeared to weaken the "abscission checkpoint". Finally, we showed that KRAS-induced binucleated cell formation appeared to be also H 2 O 2 -dependent. In conclusion, we propose that a ROS, mainly H 2 O 2 increases binucleation through unresolved chromatin bridges caused by DNA damage and mislocalization of Aurora B, the latter of which appears to augment the effect of DNA damage on chromatin bridge formation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Bilateral Medial Medullary Stroke: A Challenge in Early Diagnosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir M. Torabi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Bilateral medial medullary stroke is a very rare type of stroke, with catastrophic consequences. Early diagnosis is crucial. Here, I present a young patient with acute vertigo, progressive generalized weakness, dysarthria, and respiratory failure, who initially was misdiagnosed with acute vestibular syndrome. Initial brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI that was done in the acute phase was read as normal. Other possibilities were excluded by lumbar puncture and MRI of cervical spine. MR of C-spine showed lesion at medial medulla; therefore a second MRI of brain was requested, showed characteristic “heart appearance” shape at diffusion weighted (DWI, and confirmed bilateral medial medullary stroke. Retrospectively, a vague-defined hyperintense linear DWI signal at midline was noted in the first brain MRI. Because of the symmetric and midline pattern of this abnormal signal and similarity to an artifact, some radiologists or neurologists may miss this type of stroke. Radiologists and neurologists must recognize clinical and MRI findings of this rare type of stroke, which early treatment could make a difference in patient outcome. The abnormal DWI signal in early stages of this type of stroke may not be a typical “heart appearance” shape, and other variants such as small dot or linear DWI signal at midline must be recognized as early signs of stroke. Also, MRI of cervical spine may be helpful if there is attention to brainstem as well.

  17. Exposure of Human Lung Cancer Cells to 8-Chloro-Adenosine Induces G2/M Arrest and Mitotic Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Yu Zhang

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available 8-Chloro-adenosine (8-CI-Ado is a potent chemotherapeutic agent whose cytotoxicity in a variety of tumor cell lines has been widely investigated. However, the molecular mechanisms are uncertain. In this study, we found that exposure of human lung cancer cell lines A549 (p53-wt and H1299 (p53-depleted to 8-CI-Ado induced cell arrest in the G2/M phase, which was accompanied by accumulation of binucleated and polymorphonucleated cells resulting from aberrant mitosis and failed cytokinesis. Western blotting showed the loss of phosphorylated forms of Cdc2 and Cdc25C that allowed progression into mitosis. Furthermore, the increase in Ser10-phosphorylated histone H3-positive cells revealed by fluorescence-activated cell sorting suggested that the agent-targeted cells were able to exit the G2 phase and enter the M phase. Immunocytochemistry showed that microtubule and microfilament arrays were changed in exposed cells, indicating that the dynamic instability of microtubules and microfilaments was lost, which may correlate with mitotic dividing failure. Aberrant mitosis resulted in mitotic catastrophe followed by varying degrees of apoptosis, depending on the cell lines. Thus, 8-CI-Ado appears to exert its cytotoxicity toward cells in culture by inducing mitotic catastrophe.

  18. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in pregnancy, a diagnosis that should not be missed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoayek, Jennifer G; Moussa, Hind N; Rehman, Hina A; Nasab, Susan Hosseini; Blackwell, Sean C; Sibai, Baha M

    2016-12-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is an accelerated form of the antiphospholipid antibody syndrome resulting in multi-organ ischemia and failure. It is a rare and life-threatening condition that can be easily mistaken with hemolysis elevated liver enzymes low platelets syndrome, thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, and hemolytic uremic syndrome. In order to make a diagnosis, it is required to have multi-organ thrombosis over 1 week affecting at least three organs or systems, and to have positive antiphospholipid antibody on two occasions (6 weeks apart), and histopathologic confirmation of small vessel occlusion. However, due to similarities in clinical and laboratory findings between CAPS and some other obstetric complications, potential misdiagnosis or delay in diagnosis are common, increasing the risk of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. In this review we summarized information presented in previous studies, focusing on CAPS related to pregnancy. We reviewed diagnostic criteria, differential diagnosis, and common presentation ranging from malaise, abdominal pain, dyspnea, hypertension, to altered mental status and seizures. We also discussed management in pregnancy and included a detailed algorithm with steps to take. Of note, the most significant reduction in mortality was seen in patients receiving triple therapy which will be discussed in this review.

  19. The Flare Up of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome: a Report of an Immunosuppressive Withdrawal-Induced Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayyed Gholamreza Mortazavimoghaddam

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS is a systemic disease that causes venous and arterial thrombosis in virtually any organ. Sometimes it is complicated into pulmonary infarction and cavitation, pulmonary hypertension, and catastrophic course with high morbidity and mortality. The present case is a 35-year-old woman with one episode of postpartum deep veins thrombosis (DVT 12 years earlier and the second one after the second labor two years later. In spite of usual therapy for each episode of DVT, the condition had progressed into severe pulmonary hypertension. The diagnosis of primary APL syndrome was confirmed four years ago. She had been on warfarin, low dose of steroid, and azathioprine since the diagnosis of APL syndrome. After one year treatment with steroid and azathiprine the patient showed progressive well being; however, because of hyperglycemia the steroid tapered and discontinued. She had several attacks of paroxismal atrial tachycardia in the last year. On the last time, she presented with severe dyspnea, hemoptesis, and lower limbs edema. Chest radiography and Lung CT scan demonsterated the presence of lung cavitations. Because of high suspicious for fungal pulmonary infection, azathioprine was also discontinued. However, constellation renal failure, hemodynamic instability, and confusion caused the patient to succumb to death. The definite diagnosis of lung cavitations was not obtained

  20. A ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Li, D.; Li, G.

    2014-11-01

    In recent years, great disasters happen now and then. Disaster management test the emergency operation ability of the government and society all over the world. Immediately after the occurrence of a great disaster (e.g., earthquake), a massive nationwide rescue and relief operation need to be kicked off instantly. In order to improve the organizations efficiency of the emergency rescue, the organizers need to take charge of the information of the rescuer teams, including the real time location, the equipment with the team, the technical skills of the rescuers, and so on. One of the key factors for the success of emergency operations is the real time location of the rescuers dynamically. Real time tracking methods are used to track the professional rescuer teams now. But volunteers' participation play more and more important roles in great disasters. However, real time tracking of the volunteers will cause many problems, e.g., privacy leakage, expensive data consumption, etc. These problems may reduce the enthusiasm of volunteers' participation for catastrophe rescue. In fact, the great disaster is just small probability event, it is not necessary to track the volunteers (even rescuer teams) every time every day. In order to solve this problem, a ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue is presented in this paper. In this method, the handheld devices using GPS technology to provide the location of the users, e.g., smart phone, is used as the positioning equipment; an emergency tracking information database including the ID of the ground moving target (including the rescuer teams and volunteers), the communication number of the handheld devices with the moving target, and the usually living region, etc., is built in advance by registration; when catastrophe happens, the ground moving targets that living close to the disaster area will be filtered by the usually living region; then the activation short message will be sent to the selected

  1. Failure to establish and maintain a pregnancy in undernourished recipient ewes is associated with a poor endocrine milieu in the early luteal phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Brun, Victoria; Meikle, Ana; Fernández-Foren, Andrea; Forcada, Fernando; Palacín, Inmaculada; Menchaca, Alejo; Sosa, Cecilia; Abecia, José-Alfonso

    2016-10-01

    Embryos from undernourished and control donor ewes were transferred to undernourished and control recipient ewes. Progesterone and metabolic hormones were investigated in recipient ewes to determine their association with pregnancy success. Forty-five donor and 52 recipient Rasa Aragonesa ewes were fed 1.5 (control group; donor n=20; recipient n=25) or 0.5 (low group; donor n=25; recipient n=27) times the daily requirements for maintenance from the onset of estrous synchronization treatment to embryo collection and transfer. The embryos were collected 7days after the onset of estrus (day 0), and two good-quality embryos were transferred into each recipient ewe. The percentage of pregnant ewes on day 18 and 40 did not differ between the two groups, although the recipient undernourished ewes tended to have greater late embryonic mortality (from days 18-40) than the control recipient ewes (P=0.11). No effect of the nutrition of the donor was found. Recipients that became pregnant had a higher ovulation rate than non-pregnant ewes (P=0.02). Undernourished ewes had lower plasma insulin concentrations than control ewes (P=0.03), and those that suffered late embryo mortality (from days 18-40) tended to have lower insulin and progesterone concentrations than their counterparts that remained pregnant (P=0.06 and P=0.07, respectively). In this study, pregnancy in control and undernourished recipient ewes was not associated with the origin of the embryo (undernourished and control donors). In conclusion, failure to establish and maintain a pregnancy was associated with lower progesterone and insulin levels one week after estrus in recipient ewes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Key indicator tools for shallow slope failure assessment using soil chemical property signatures and soil colour variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, Rashidi; Hasni, Shah Irani; Baharuddin, Zainul Mukrim; Hashim, Khairusy Syakirin Has-Yun; Mahamod, Lukman Hakim

    2017-10-01

    Slope failure has become a major concern in Malaysia due to the rapid development and urbanisation in the country. It poses severe threats to any highway construction industry, residential areas, natural resources and tourism activities. The extent of damages that resulted from this catastrophe can be lessened if a long-term early warning system to predict landslide prone areas is implemented. Thus, this study aims to characterise the relationship between Oxisols properties and soil colour variables to be manipulated as key indicators to forecast shallow slope failure. The concentration of each soil property in slope soil was evaluated from two different localities that consist of 120 soil samples from stable and unstable slopes located along the North-South Highway (PLUS) and East-West Highway (LPT). Analysis of variance established highly significant difference (P shallow slope failure were high value of L*(62), low values of c* (20) and h* (66), low concentration of iron (53 mg kg -1 ) and aluminium oxide (37 mg kg -1 ), low soil TOC (0.5%), low CEC (3.6 cmol/kg), slightly acidic soil pH (4.9), high amount of sand fraction (68%) and low amount of clay fraction (20%).

  3. ATR prohibits replication catastrophe by preventing global exhaustion of RPA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt; Lukas, Claudia; Larsen, Dorthe Helena; Povlsen, Lou Klitgaard; Bekker-Jensen, Simon; Mailand, Niels; Bartek, Jiri; Lukas, Jiri

    2013-11-21

    ATR, activated by replication stress, protects replication forks locally and suppresses origin firing globally. Here, we show that these functions of ATR are mechanistically coupled. Although initially stable, stalled forks in ATR-deficient cells undergo nucleus-wide breakage after unscheduled origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells commonly feature intrinsically high replication stress, this study also provides a molecular rationale for their hypersensitivity to ATR inhibitors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Nuclear war and climatic catastrophe: Some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagan, C.

    1986-01-01

    Apocalyptic prediction require, to be taken seriously, higher standards of evidence than do assertions on other matters where the stakes are not as great. Since the immediate effects of even a single hermonuclear weapon explosion are so devastating, it is natural to assume - even without considering detailed mechanism - that the more or less simultaneous explosion of 10,000 such weapons all over the Northern Hemisphere might have unpredictable and catastrophic consequences. And yet, while it is widely accepted that a full nuclear war might mean the end of civilization at least in the Northern Hemisphere, claims that nuclear war might imply a reversion of the human population to prehistoric levels, or even the extinction of the human species, have, among some policymakers at least, been dismissed as alarmist or, worse, irrelevant

  5. Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I

    2007-01-01

    Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

  6. Hypokalemia-associated catastrophic rhabdomyolysis in ulcerative colitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tzvetanov, G.

    2009-01-01

    A case of catastrophic hypokalemia-associated rhabdomyolysis in patient with ulcerative colitis (UC) is reported. A 60-year-old man presented with an exacerbation of UC and hypokalemia due to long-term diarrhea. While in the hospital, rhabdomyolysis developed in association with worsening hypokalemia. The hypokalemia was refractory to treatment and progressive course. Patient developed painful cramps of the masticatory and facial musculature associated with a moderated weakness in distal muscle groups. The weakness extended to intercostals and diaphragm muscles and led to respiratory deficiency. Serum concentration of creatine kinase was highly increased. Patient died from advancing and insurmountable cardiovascular deficiency. The causative role of hypokalemia for muscle involvement and rhabdomyolysis in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases was discussed. (author)

  7. Carbon: change of climate, but no worldwide catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

    1981-03-21

    The combustion of nearly all available coal, petroleum and natural gas supplies in the next 150 years which has been formed over 600 million years of earth's history, has resulted in man starting the largest conceivable geochemical experiment, without knowing whether and how the hence increased CO/sub 2/ content of the atmosphere is going to alter the climate. Predictions of the time change of the climate and its influence on the food basis are very hard to make. The authors working at the International Carbon Centre at Hamburg within the framework of the SCOPE/UNEP program analyze various climate models and conclude that the changing climate with or without CO/sub 2/ will cause costs in industrial countries as well as catastrophes in the development countries.

  8. Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Adam; Huyck, Charles K

    2016-10-01

    While catastrophe (CAT) modeling of property damage is well developed, modeling of business interruption (BI) lags far behind. One reason is the crude nature of functional relationships in CAT models that translate property damage into BI. Another is that estimating BI losses is more complicated because it depends greatly on public and private decisions during recovery with respect to resilience tactics that dampen losses by using remaining resources more efficiently to maintain business function and to recover more quickly. This article proposes a framework for improving hazard loss estimation for BI insurance needs. Improved data collection that allows for analysis at the level of individual facilities within a company can improve matching the facilities with the effectiveness of individual forms of resilience, such as accessing inventories, relocating operations, and accelerating repair, and can therefore improve estimation accuracy. We then illustrate the difference this can make in a case study example of losses from a hurricane. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Semi-classical approximation to path integrals - phases and catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levit, S.

    1977-01-01

    Problems of phases and catastrophes were encountered when trying to apply the classical S-matrix theory to the scattering phenomena in nuclear physics. The path integral formulation provided a suitable basis for the treatment of these and related problems. Within conventional mathematical language it was possible to give practical prescriptions and discuss their limitations. Since the semi-classical (stationary phase) approximation is commonly used in any application of the path integral method, the results are not restricted to the scattering problems and may be of general interest. The derivation of the uniform approximations in the energy representation should use the exact path integral expression as the starting point, rather than performing Fourier transforms on the expressions derived in the present lecture. (B.G.)

  10. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...... of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper....

  11. From teosinte to maize: the catastrophic sexual transmutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iltis, H H

    1983-11-25

    An alternative to the theory that the ear of maize (Zea mays ssp. mays) evolved from a slender female ear of a Mexican annual teosinte holds that it was derived from the central spike of a male teosinte inflorescence (tassel) which terminates the primary lateral branches. This alternative hypothesis is more consistent with morphology and explains the anomalous lack of significant genetic and biochemical differences between these taxa. Maize, the only cereal with unisexual inflorescences, evolved through a sudden epigenetic sexual transmutation involving condensation of primary branches, which brought their tassels into the zone of female expression, leading to strong apical dominance and a catastrophic shift in nutrient allocation. Initially, this quantum change may have involved no new mutations, but rather genetic assimilation under human selection of an abnormality, perhaps environmentally triggered.

  12. Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Schmidt

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

  13. Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Wolski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

  14. Impact of the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act on nursing homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laliberte, L; Mor, V; Berg, K; Intrator, O; Calore, K; Hiris, J

    1997-01-01

    The Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act (MCCA) of 1988 altered eligibility and coverage for skilled nursing facility (SNF) care and changed Medicaid eligibility rules for nursing-home residents. Detailed data on the residents of a for-profit nursing-home chain and Medicare claims for a 1 percent sample of beneficiaries were used to examine the impact of the MCCA on nursing homes. The case mix of nursing-home admissions was scrutinized, specifically for length of stay, discharge disposition, rate of hospitalization, and changes in payer source. Findings revealed that, although the proportion of Medicare-financed nursing-home care increased, as did the case-mix severity of residents during the MCCA period, there was no corollary reduction in hospital use by nursing-home residents.

  15. Catastrophic valley fills record large Himalayan earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolle, Amelie; Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

    2017-12-01

    Uncertain timing and magnitudes of past mega-earthquakes continue to confound seismic risk appraisals in the Himalayas. Telltale traces of surface ruptures are rare, while fault trenches document several events at best, so that additional proxies of strong ground motion are needed to complement the paleoseismological record. We study Nepal's Pokhara basin, which has the largest and most extensively dated archive of earthquake-triggered valley fills in the Himalayas. These sediments form a 148-km2 fan that issues from the steep Seti Khola gorge in the Annapurna Massif, invading and plugging 15 tributary valleys with tens of meters of debris, and impounding several lakes. Nearly a dozen new radiocarbon ages corroborate at least three episodes of catastrophic sedimentation on the fan between ∼700 and ∼1700 AD, coinciding with great earthquakes in ∼1100, 1255, and 1344 AD, and emplacing roughly >5 km3 of debris that forms the Pokhara Formation. We offer a first systematic sedimentological study of this formation, revealing four lithofacies characterized by thick sequences of mid-fan fluvial conglomerates, debris-flow beds, and fan-marginal slackwater deposits. New geochemical provenance analyses reveal that these upstream dipping deposits of Higher Himalayan origin contain lenses of locally derived river clasts that mark time gaps between at least three major sediment pulses that buried different parts of the fan. The spatial pattern of 14C dates across the fan and the provenance data are key to distinguishing these individual sediment pulses, as these are not evident from their sedimentology alone. Our study demonstrates how geomorphic and sedimentary evidence of catastrophic valley infill can help to independently verify and augment paleoseismological fault-trench records of great Himalayan earthquakes, while offering unparalleled insights into their long-term geomorphic impacts on major drainage basins.

  16. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, M.

    2008-07-01

    The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  17. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gruber

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

    From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

    In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

    This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  18. Heart failure - tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    CHF - tests; Congestive heart failure - tests; Cardiomyopathy - tests; HF - tests ... the best test to: Identify which type of heart failure (systolic, diastolic, valvular) Monitor your heart failure and ...

  19. Paradoxical Effects of Sodium-Calcium Exchanger Inhibition on Torsade de Pointes and Early Afterdepolarization in a Heart Failure Rabbit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Po-Cheng; Lu, Yu-Ying; Lee, Hui-Ling; Lin, Shien-Fong; Chu, Yen; Wen, Ming-Shien; Chou, Chung-Chuan

    2018-05-03

    Calcium homeostasis plays an important role in development of early afterdepolarizations (EADs) and torsade de pointes (TdP). The role of sodium-calcium exchanger (NCX) inhibition in genesis secondary Ca rise and EADs-TdP is still debated. Dual voltage and intracellular Ca optical mapping were conducted in 6 control and 9 failing rabbit hearts. After baseline electrophysiological and optical mapping studies, E4031 was given to simulate long QT syndrome. ORM-10103 was then administrated to examine the electrophysiological effects on EAD-TdP development. E4031 enhanced secondary Ca rise, EADs development and TdP inducibility in both control and failing hearts. The results showed that ORM-10103 reduced premature ventricular beats (PVBs) but was unable to suppress the inducibility of TdP or EADs. The electrophysiological effects of ORM-10103 included prolongation of action potential duration (APD) and increased APD heterogeneity in failing hearts. ORM10103 had a neutral effect on the amplitude of secondary Cai rise in control and HF groups. In this model, most EADs generated from the long-short APD junction area. In conclusion, highly selective NCX inhibition with ORM-10103 reduced PVB burden but was unable to suppress secondary Ca rise, EADs development nor inducibility of TdP. The possible electrophysiological mechanisms include APD prolongation and increased APD heterogeneity.

  20. Failure of RNA synthesis to recover after UV irradiation: an early defect in cells from individuals with Cockayne's syndrome and xeroderma pigmentosum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayne, L.V.; Lehmann, A.R.

    1982-01-01

    Previous work has shown that in cells from the ultraviolet-sensitive genetic disorder, Cockayne's syndrome, DNA synthesis fails to recover after ultraviolet irradiation, despite the fact that these cells have no detectable defect in either excision or daughter-strand repair pathways. We now show that Cockayne cells, as well as cells from a number of patients with xeroderma pigmentosum, are sensitive to the lethal effects of UV irradiation in stationary phase under conditions in which no DNA is synthesized after irradiation. Furthermore, in normal and defective human fibroblasts, RNA synthesis is depressed after UV irradiation. In normal (dividing) cells, RNA synthesis recovers very rapidly, but this recovery does not occur in Cockayne cells, and it is reduced or absent in xeroderma pigmentosum cells from different complementation groups. Qualitatively, similar results are obtained with cells in stationary phase. The recovery of RNA synthesis in the various defective cell strains is not correlated with the overall extent of excision repair, but there is some correlation between recovery of RNA synthesis and cell survival after ultraviolet irradiation. These results implicate recovery of RNA synthesis as an important early response to ultraviolet irradiation

  1. Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

  2. Catastrophizing and perceived injustice: risk factors for the transition to chronicity after whiplash injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Michael J L; Adams, Heather; Martel, Marc-Olivier; Scott, Whitney; Wideman, Timothy

    2011-12-01

    The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. This article focuses on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. Research has shown that psychological variables play a role in determining the trajectory of recovery after whiplash injury. This article will focus on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. Several investigations have shown that measures of catastrophizing and perceived injustice prospectively predict problematic trajectories of recovery after whiplash injury. Basic research points to the potential roles of expectancies, attention, coping and endogenous opioid dysregulation as possible avenues through which catastrophizing might heighten the probability of the persistence of pain after whiplash injury. Although research has yet to systematically address the mechanisms by which perceived injustice might contribute to prolonged disability in individuals with whiplash injuries, there are grounds for suggesting the potential contributions of catastrophizing, pain behavior and anger. A challenge for future research will be the development and evaluation of risk factor-targeted interventions aimed at reducing catastrophizing and perceived injustice to improve recovery trajectories after whiplash injury.

  3. An Evolutionary Algorithm for Feature Subset Selection in Hard Disk Drive Failure Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhasin, Harpreet

    2011-01-01

    Hard disk drives are used in everyday life to store critical data. Although they are reliable, failure of a hard disk drive can be catastrophic, especially in applications like medicine, banking, air traffic control systems, missile guidance systems, computer numerical controlled machines, and more. The use of Self-Monitoring, Analysis and…

  4. Effect of early treatment with ivabradine combined with beta-blockers versus beta-blockers alone in patients hospitalised with heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (ETHIC-AHF): A randomised study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidalgo, Francisco J; Anguita, Manuel; Castillo, Juan C; Rodríguez, Sara; Pardo, Laura; Durán, Enrique; Sánchez, José J; Ferreiro, Carlos; Pan, Manuel; Mesa, Dolores; Delgado, Mónica; Ruiz, Martín

    2016-08-15

    To analyse the effect of the early coadministration of ivabradine and beta-blockers (intervention group) versus beta-blockers alone (control group) in patients hospitalised with heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (HFrEF). A comparative, randomised study was performed to compare the treatment strategies of beta-blockers alone versus ivabradine and beta-blockers starting 24hours after hospital admission, for acute HF in patients with an left ventricular ejection fraction (EF)70bpm. A total of 71 patients were examined, 33 in the intervention group and 38 in the control group. No differences were observed with respect to their baseline characteristics or standard treatment at discharge. HR at 28days (64.3±7.5 vs. 70.3±9.3bpm, p=0.01) and at 4months (60.6±7.5 vs. 67.8±8bpm, p=0.004) after discharge were significantly lower in the intervention group. Significant differences were found with respect to the EF and brain natriuretic peptide levels at 4months. No differences in clinical events (rehospitalisation/death) were reported at 4months. No severe side effects attributable to the early administration of ivabradine were observed. The early coadministration of ivabradine and beta-blockers during hospital admission for acute HFrEF is feasible and safe, and it produces a significant decrease in HR at 28days and at 4months after hospital discharge. It also seemed to improve systolic function and functional and clinical parameters of HF patients at short-term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Early and late effects of the DPP-4 inhibitor vildagliptin in a rat model of post-myocardial infarction heart failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Progressive remodeling after myocardial infarction (MI) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Recently, glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 was shown to have cardioprotective effects, but treatment with GLP-1 is limited by its short half-life. It is rapidly degraded by the enzyme dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4), an enzyme which inhibits GLP-1 activity. We hypothesized that the DPP-4 inhibitor vildagliptin will increase levels of GLP-1 and may exert protective effects on cardiac function after MI. Methods Sprague-Dawley rats were either subjected to coronary ligation to induce MI and left ventricular (LV) remodeling, or sham operation. Parts of the rats with an MI were pre-treated for 2 days with the DPP-4 inhibitor vildagliptin (MI-Vildagliptin immediate, MI-VI, 15 mg/kg/day). The remainder of the rats was, three weeks after coronary artery ligation, subjected to treatment with DPP-4 inhibitor vildagliptin (MI-Vildagliptin Late, MI-VL) or control (MI). At 12 weeks, echocardiography and invasive hemodynamics were measured and molecular analysis and immunohistochemistry were performed. Results Vildagliptin inhibited the DPP-4 enzymatic activity by almost 70% and increased active GLP-1 levels by about 3-fold in plasma in both treated groups (p vildagliptin, either early or late, did not reverse cardiac remodeling. ANP (atrial natriuretic peptide) and BNP (brain natriuretic peptide) mRNA levels were significantly increased in all 3 MI groups, but no significant reductions were observed in both vildagliptin groups. Vildagliptin also did not change cardiomyocyte size or capillary density after MI. No effects were detected on glucose level and body weight in the post-MI remodeling model. Conclusion Vildagliptin increases the active GLP-1 level via inhibition of DPP-4, but it has no substantial protective effects on cardiac function in this well established long-term post-MI cardiac remodeling model. PMID:21955567

  6. Heart failure - home monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000113.htm Heart failure - home monitoring To use the sharing features on ... your high blood pressure Fast food tips Heart failure - discharge Heart failure - fluids and diuretics Heart failure - what to ...

  7. Japan Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami in Fukushima Daiichi NPP; Is it Beyond Design Basis Accident or a Design Deficiency and Operator Unawareness?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaafar, M.A.; Refeat, R.M.; EL-Kady, A.A.

    2012-01-01

    On March 11, 2011 a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami struck the north east coast of Japan. This catastrophe damaged fully or partially the six units of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.Questions were raised following the aftermath, whether it is beyond design basis accident caused by severe natural event or a failure by the Japanese authorities to plan to deal with such accident. There are many indications that the Utility of Fukushima Daiichi NPP, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), did not pay enough attention to numerous facts about the incompatibility of the site and several design defects in the plant units. In fact there are three other NPP sites nearby Fukushima Daiichi Plant (about 30 to 60 Km far from Fukushima Daiichi NPP), with different site characteristics, which survived the same catastrophic earthquake and tsunami, but they were automatically turned into a safe shutdown state. These plants sites are Fukushima Daini Plant (4 units), Onagawa Plant (3 units) and Tokai Daini (II) Plant (one unit). In this paper, the aftermath Fukushima Daiichi plant integrity is pointed out. Some facts about the site and design concerns which could have implications on the accident are discussed. The response of Japan Authority is outlined and some remarks about their actions are underlined. The impacts of this disaster on the Nuclear Power Program worldwide are also discussed.

  8. Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Ven, W P; Schut, F T

    1994-11-01

    In 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care). However, there are two arguments to exclude some of the catastrophic risks from the competitive insurance market, at least during the implementation process of the reforms. Firstly, the prospects for a workable system of risk-adjusted payments to the insurers that should take away the incentives for cream skimming are, at least during the next 5 years, more favorable for the non-catastrophic risks than for the catastrophic risks. Secondly, even if a workable system of risk-adjusted payments can be developed, the problem of quality skimping may be relevant for some of the catastrophic risks, but not for non-catastrophic risks. By 'quality skimping' we mean the reduction of the quality of care to a level which is below the minimum level that is acceptable to society. After 5 years of health care reforms in the Netherlands new insights have resulted in a growing support to confine the implementation of the reforms to the non-catastrophic risks. In drawing (and redrawing) the exact boundaries between different regulatory regimes for catastrophic and non-catastrophic risks, the expected benefits of a cost-effective substitution of care have to be weighted against the potential harm caused by cream skimming and quality skimping.

  9. Nuclear catastrophe in Japan. Health consequences resulting from Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulitz, Henrik; Eisenberg, Winfrid; Thiel, Reinhold

    2013-01-01

    On 11 March 2011, a nuclear catastrophe occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Japan in the wake of an earthquake and due to serious safety deficiencies. This resulted in a massive and prolonged release of radioactive fission and decay products. Approximately 20% of the radioactive substances released into the atmosphere have led to the contamination of the landmass of Japan with 17,000 becquerels per square meter of cesium-137 and a comparable quantity of cesium-134. The initial health consequences of the nuclear catastrophe are already now, after only two years, scientifically verifiable. Similar to the case of Chernobyl, a decline in the birth rate was documented nine months after the nuclear catastrophe. Throughout Japan, the total drop in number of births in December 2011 was 4362, with the Fukushima Prefecture registering a decline of 209 births. Japan also experienced a rise in infant mortality, with 75 more children dying in their first year of life than expected statistically. In the Fukushima Prefecture alone, some 55,592 children were diagnosed with thyroid gland nodules or cysts. In contrast to cysts and nodules found in adults, these findings in children must be classified as precancerous. There were also the first documented cases in Fukushima of thyroid cancer in children. The present document undertakes three assessments of the expected incidence of cancer resulting from external exposure to radiation. These are based on publications in scientific journals on soil contamination in 47 prefectures in Japan, the average total soil contamination, and, in the third case, on local dose rate measurements in the fall of 2012. Taking into consideration the shielding effect of buildings, the medical organization IPPNW has calculated the collective lifetime doses for individuals at 94,749 manSv, 206,516 manSv, and 118,171 manSv, respectively. In accordance with the risk factors set by the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR) for death

  10. Renal failure in patients with multiple myeloma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almueilo, Samir H

    2015-01-01

    Renal dysfunction is encountered in 20-25% of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) at the time of diagnosis. There is often a precipitating event. Several biochemical and clinical correlations with renal failure in MM have been reported. Renal failure in MM is associated with worse outcome of the disease. We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 64 patients with MM admitted to our institution during the period January 1992 to December 2012. Abnormal renal function was observed in 24 (37.5%) patients and 17 (26.6%) of them had renal failure; 14 of the 17 (82.4%) of patients with renal failure had Stage III MM. Urine Bence- Jones protein was positive in ten (58.8%) patients with renal failure versus ten (21.3%) patients without renal failure (P = 0.004). Potential precipitating factors of renal failure were determined in nine patients. Renal function normalized in 11 patients with simple measures, while six patients required hemodialysis; one remained dialysis dependent till time of death. Early mortality occurred in five (29.4%) patients with renal failure as compared with two (4.3%) patients in the group without renal failure (P = 0.005). In conclusion, renal failure is associated with a higher tumor burden and Bence-Jones proteinuria in patients with MM. It is reversible in the majority of patients; however, early mortality tends to be higher in patients with persistent renal failure.

  11. Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 10, Crop Failure in Britain in 1799 and 1800 and the British Decision to Send a Naval Force to the Baltic Early in 1801.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, J.; Kington, J.

    1992-02-01

    In 1799 and 1800, crop failures struck the British Isles. The crop failure of 1799 was due to the combined effects of the cold winter of 1798-99 and the cool and rainy growing season of the year. The summer was characterized by the prevalence of low-pressure systems resembling cyclonic weather patterns of the winter.The crop failure of 1800 was mainly due to a drought early in summer. In July there was either no rain at all (especially in the south) or the amounts were negligible. The general synoptic situation indicated an extension of the Azores High to Britain and beyond to central Europe. In the London area the pressure in duly was never below 1020 mb.The wheat harvests of 1799 and 1800 were about one-half and three-quarters of the average, respectively. The deficiencies could not be made up by imports, for, at least in 1799, the weather conditions were also unfavorable to grain production in the countries of northern Europe that were "traditional" exporters of grain to Britain. We estimate that in the "bread-consumption year", October 1799 to September 1800, harvest and imports accounted for but 60% of the required quantity of wheat, the principal ingredient of bread in England and Wales at the time. In consequence of the bread scarcity, there were sharp rises in the price of bread and in bread riots. Some of the slogans of the rioters made mention of the French Revolution.In parallel with the increasing scarcity of bread, diplomatic relations between Britain and Russia worsened from 1799 on. Its significance on the bread crisis, as well as a crisis of naval supplies, was that the Baltic ports through which the grain of the northern countries (East Prussia, Poland, and Russia) was channeled for Britain stood under the tsar's direct or indirect control. The strained relations between Britain and Russia peaked in November 1800. On 18 November, Tsar Paul I imposed an embargo on British ships and their crews. This embargo meant that the bread scarcity was to

  12. Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

    OpenAIRE

    Taub, Chloe J.; Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.; Mackey, Sean C.; Darnall, Beth D.

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic l...

  13. Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 2. Building laboratory capability by selecting and developing analytical methodologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Matthew; Campisano, Romy; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Hall, Kathy; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Silvestri, Erin; Smith, Terry; Willison, Stuart; Ernst, Hiba

    2014-11-01

    Catastrophic incidents can generate a large number of samples of analytically diverse types, including forensic, clinical, environmental, food, and others. Environmental samples include water, wastewater, soil, air, urban building and infrastructure materials, and surface residue. Such samples may arise not only from contamination from the incident but also from the multitude of activities surrounding the response to the incident, including decontamination. This document summarizes a range of activities to help build laboratory capability in preparation for sample analysis following a catastrophic incident, including selection and development of fit-for-purpose analytical methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants. Fit-for-purpose methods are those which have been selected to meet project specific data quality objectives. For example, methods could be fit for screening contamination in the early phases of investigation of contamination incidents because they are rapid and easily implemented, but those same methods may not be fit for the purpose of remediating the environment to acceptable levels when a more sensitive method is required. While the exact data quality objectives defining fitness-for-purpose can vary with each incident, a governing principle of the method selection and development process for environmental remediation and recovery is based on achieving high throughput while maintaining high quality analytical results. This paper illustrates the result of applying this principle, in the form of a compendium of analytical methods for contaminants of interest. The compendium is based on experience with actual incidents, where appropriate and available. This paper also discusses efforts aimed at adaptation of existing methods to increase fitness-for-purpose and development of innovative methods when necessary. The contaminants of interest are primarily those potentially released through catastrophes resulting from malicious activity

  14. Catastrophizing and Depressive Symptoms as Prospective Predictors of Outcomes Following Total Knee Replacement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert R Edwards

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Several recent reports suggest that pain-related catastrophizing is a risk factor for poor acute pain outcomes following surgical interventions. However, it has been less clear whether levels of catastrophizing influence longer-term postoperative outcomes. Data were analyzed from a relatively small number (n=43 of patients who underwent total knee replacement and were followed for 12 months after their surgery. Previous research has suggested that high levels of both catastrophizing and depression are associated with elevated acute postoperative pain complaints among patients undergoing knee surgery. In this sample, catastrophizing and depression at each of the assessment points were studied as prospective predictors of pain (both global pain ratings and pain at night at the subsequent assessment point over the course of one year. The predictive patterns differed somewhat across measures of pain reporting; depressive symptoms were unique predictors of greater global pain complaints, while catastrophizing was a specific and unique predictor of elevated nighttime pain. While surgical outcomes following total knee replacement are, on average, quite good, a significant minority of patients continue to experience long-term pain. The present findings suggest that high levels of catastrophizing and depression may promote enhanced pain levels, indicating that interventions designed to reduce catastrophizing and depressive symptoms may have the potential to further improve joint replacement outcomes.

  15. Catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal: a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Eiko; Gilmour, Stuart; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Gautam, Ghan Shyam; Shrestha, Pradeep Krishna; Shibuya, Kenji

    2014-10-01

    To determine the incidence of - and illnesses commonly associated with - catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal. We did a cross-sectional population-based survey in five municipalities of Kathmandu Valley between November 2011 and January 2012. For each household surveyed, out-of-pocket spending on health in the previous 30 days that exceeded 10% of the household's total expenditure over the same period was considered to be catastrophic. We estimated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure. We identified the illnesses most commonly associated with such expenditure using a Poisson regression model and assessed the distribution of expenditure by economic quintile of households using the concentration index. Overall, 284 of the 1997 households studied in Kathmandu, i.e. 13.8% after adjustment by sampling weight, reported catastrophic health expenditure in the 30 days before the survey. After adjusting for confounders, this expenditure was found to be associated with injuries, particularly those resulting from road traffic accidents. Catastrophic expenditure by households in the poorest quintile were associated with at least one episode of diabetes, asthma or heart disease. In an urban area of Nepal, catastrophic household expenditure on health was mostly associated with injuries and noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes and asthma. Throughout Nepal, interventions for the control and management of noncommunicable diseases and the prevention of road traffic accidents should be promoted. A phased introduction of health insurance should also reduce the incidence of catastrophic household expenditure.

  16. Catastrophic flooding origin of shelf valley systems in the English Channel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Sanjeev; Collier, Jenny S; Palmer-Felgate, Andy; Potter, Graeme

    2007-07-19

    Megaflood events involving sudden discharges of exceptionally large volumes of water are rare, but can significantly affect landscape evolution, continental-scale drainage patterns and climate change. It has been proposed that a significant flood event eroded a network of large ancient valleys on the floor of the English Channel-the narrow seaway between England and France. This hypothesis has remained untested through lack of direct evidence, and alternative non-catastrophist ideas have been entertained for valley formation. Here we analyse a new regional bathymetric map of part of the English Channel derived from high-resolution sonar data, which shows the morphology of the valley in unprecedented detail. We observe a large bedrock-floored valley that contains a distinct assemblage of landforms, including streamlined islands and longitudinal erosional grooves, which are indicative of large-scale subaerial erosion by high-magnitude water discharges. Our observations support the megaflood model, in which breaching of a rock dam at the Dover Strait instigated catastrophic drainage of a large pro-glacial lake in the southern North Sea basin. We suggest that megaflooding provides an explanation for the permanent isolation of Britain from mainland Europe during interglacial high-sea-level stands, and consequently for patterns of early human colonisation of Britain together with the large-scale reorganization of palaeodrainage in northwest Europe.

  17. Electrical streaming potential precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Qian

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The majority of anomalies in self-potential at 7 stations within 160 km from the epicentre showed a similar pattern of rapid onset and slow decay during and before the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Considering that some of these anomalies associated with episodical spouting from boreholes or the increase in pore pressure in wells, observed anomalies are streaming potential generated by local events of sudden movements and diffusion process of high-pressure fluid in parallel faults. These transient events triggered by tidal forces exhibited a periodic nature and the statistical phenomenon to migrate towards the epicentre about one month before the earthquake. As a result of events, the pore pressure reached its final equilibrium state and was higher than that in the initial state in a large enough section of the fault region. Consequently, local effective shear strength of the material in the fault zone decreased and finally the catastrophic earthquake was induced. Similar phenomena also occurred one month before the M 7.3 Haichen earthquake of 1975. Therefore, a short term earthquake prediction can be made by electrical measurements, which are the kind of geophysical measurements most closely related to pore fluid behaviors of the deep crust.

  18. Supersymmetric and non-supersymmetric models without catastrophic Goldstone bosons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braathen, Johannes; Goodsell, Mark D. [LPTHE, UPMC Univ. Paris 6, Sorbonne Universites, Paris (France); LPTHE, CNRS, Paris (France); Staub, Florian [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Theoretical Physics (ITP), Karlsruhe (Germany); Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Nuclear Physics (IKP), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany)

    2017-11-15

    The calculation of the Higgs mass in general renormalisable field theories has been plagued by the so-called ''Goldstone Boson Catastrophe'', where light (would-be) Goldstone bosons give infra-red divergent loop integrals. In supersymmetric models, previous approaches included a workaround that ameliorated the problem for most, but not all, parameter space regions; while giving divergent results everywhere for non-supersymmetric models. We present an implementation of a general solution to the problem in the public code SARAH, along with new calculations of some necessary loop integrals and generic expressions. We discuss the validation of our code in the Standard Model, where we find remarkable agreement with the known results. We then show new applications in Split SUSY, the NMSSM, the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model, and the Georgi-Machacek model. In particular, we take some first steps to exploring where the habit of using tree-level mass relations in non-supersymmetric models breaks down, and show that the loop corrections usually become very large well before naive perturbativity bounds are reached. (orig.)

  19. Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

    2013-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. WHO's new recommendations about iodine prophylaxis at nuclear catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paile, Wendla

    1999-01-01

    WHO has prepared new advice about using stable iodine as protection against emission of radioactive iodine from nuclear catastrophes. The experiences from Chernobyl show that the risk for thyroid gland cancer after emission of radio-iodine is significant. The risk of serious side effects of stable iodine as single dose is stated to be minimal. Stable iodine is a safe, effective remedy for protecting the thyroid gland against radioactive iodine. It is recommended to adjust different criteria for iodine prophylaxis for new-born, children, young people and adults older than 40 years. For children of the age up to 18 years iodine prophylaxis should be considered at 10 mGy thyroid gland doses, and for young adults at 100 mGy. For adults of 40 years or more the cancer risk of radioactive iodine is very low and iodine prophylaxis is unnecessary provided that the expected does not exceed 5 Gy. The new information about risk and advantage must be considered in planning for distribution and storage of stable iodine. WHO also commends that everybody has the possibility to buy it in a pharmacy. (EHS)

  1. Chernobyl catastrophe and establishment of civil society in Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherbak, Yuri

    2013-01-01

    Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine described secret exhibition for Chernobyl accident and a civil movement called the Green World movement. Chernobyl accident had also a great impact on the government and society in such totalitarian state as the Soviet Union was in 1986. Soviet authorities took unprecedented measures to block any information about the nature of explosion levels and number of victims. In 1987, a group of writers and scientists from the Academy of Science of Ukraine established 'Green World'. Green World received serious support from the quasi-nongovernmental organization. The main principles of the Green World were the following: (1) the primacy of environment over economy and politics; (2) democracy and full transparency in environmental issues; (3) all-people's participation in solving environmental issues; (4) combination of scientific and humanistic principles; (5) environmentalization of education and awareness-raising. The author was elected a member of the Soviet Union Parliament, and head of the Subcommittee for Nuclear Energy and Environment of the Parliamentary Committee for Environmental Issues. The 1990 Chernobyl Declaration stated the following; 'It was established that the full burden of the responsibility for the catastrophe should be placed on the state, its authorities and leadership, guilty of criminal actions, along with the political leadership of republics, who created a command-administrative bureaucratic system with its totalitarian regime.' (N.T.)

  2. Catastrophic cooling and cessation of heating in the solar corona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, H.; Bingert, S.; Kamio, S.

    2012-01-01

    Context. Condensations in the more than 106 K hot corona of the Sun are commonly observed in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV). While their contribution to the total solar EUV radiation is still a matter of debate, these condensations certainly provide a valuable tool for studying the dynamic response of the corona to the heating processes. Aims: We investigate different distributions of energy input in time and space to investigate which process is most relevant for understanding these coronal condensations. Methods: For a comparison to observations we synthesize EUV emission from a time-dependent, one-dimensional model for coronal loops, where we employ two heating scenarios: simply shutting down the heating and a model where the heating is very concentrated at the loop footpoints, while keeping the total heat input constant. Results: The heating off/on model does not lead to significant EUV count rates that one observes with SDO/AIA. In contrast, the concentration of the heating near the footpoints leads to thermal non-equilibrium near the loop top resulting in the well-known catastrophic cooling. This process gives a good match to observations of coronal condensations. Conclusions: This shows that the corona needs a steady supply of energy to support the coronal plasma, even during coronal condensations. Otherwise the corona would drain very fast, too fast to even form a condensation. Movies are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  3. Radiation-induced mitotic catastrophe in PARG-deficient cells

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ame, J.Ch.; Fouquerel, E.; Dantzer, F.; De Murcia, G.; Schreiber, V. [IREBS-FRE3211 du CNRS, Universite de Strasbourg, ESBS, Bd Sebastien Brant, BP 10413, 67412 Illkirch Cedex (France); Gauthier, L.R.; Boussin, F.D. [Laboratoire de Radiopathologie/INSERM U967, CEA-DSV-IRCM, 92265 Fontenay aux Roses, Cedex 6 (France); Biard, D. [CEA-DSV-IRCM/INSERM U935, Institut A. Lwoff-CNRS, BP 8, 94801 Villejuif cedex (France)

    2009-07-01

    Poly(ADP-ribosyl)ation is a post-translational modification of proteins involved in the regulation of chromatin structure, DNA metabolism, cell division and cell death. Through the hydrolysis of poly(ADP-ribose) (PAR), Poly(ADP-ribose) glyco-hydrolase (PARG) has a crucial role in the control of life-and-death balance following DNA insult. Comprehension of PARG function has been hindered by the existence of many PARG isoforms encoded by a single gene and displaying various subcellular localizations. To gain insight into the function of PARG in response to irradiation, we constitutively and stably knocked down expression of PARG isoforms in HeLa cells. PARG depletion leading to PAR accumulation was not deleterious to undamaged cells and was in fact rather beneficial, because it protected cells from spontaneous single-strand breaks and telomeric abnormalities. By contrast, PARG-deficient cells showed increased radiosensitivity, caused by defects in the repair of single- and double-strand breaks and in mitotic spindle checkpoint, leading to alteration of progression of mitosis. Irradiated PARG-deficient cells displayed centrosome amplification leading to mitotic supernumerary spindle poles, and accumulated aberrant mitotic figures, which induced either polyploidy or cell death by mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest that PARG could be a novel potential therapeutic target for radiotherapy. (authors)

  4. Stabilization of Reversed Replication Forks by Telomerase Drives Telomere Catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margalef, Pol; Kotsantis, Panagiotis; Borel, Valerie; Bellelli, Roberto; Panier, Stephanie; Boulton, Simon J

    2018-01-25

    Telomere maintenance critically depends on the distinct activities of telomerase, which adds telomeric repeats to solve the end replication problem, and RTEL1, which dismantles DNA secondary structures at telomeres to facilitate replisome progression. Here, we establish that reversed replication forks are a pathological substrate for telomerase and the source of telomere catastrophe in Rtel1 -/- cells. Inhibiting telomerase recruitment to telomeres, but not its activity, or blocking replication fork reversal through PARP1 inhibition or depleting UBC13 or ZRANB3 prevents the rapid accumulation of dysfunctional telomeres in RTEL1-deficient cells. In this context, we establish that telomerase binding to reversed replication forks inhibits telomere replication, which can be mimicked by preventing replication fork restart through depletion of RECQ1 or PARG. Our results lead us to propose that telomerase inappropriately binds to and inhibits restart of reversed replication forks within telomeres, which compromises replication and leads to critically short telomeres. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) on Brain Connectivity Supporting Catastrophizing in Fibromyalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazaridou, Asimina; Kim, Jieun; Cahalan, Christine M; Loggia, Marco L; Franceschelli, Olivia; Berna, Chantal; Schur, Peter; Napadow, Vitaly; Edwards, Robert R

    2017-03-01

    Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, common pain disorder characterized by hyperalgesia. A key mechanism by which cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) fosters improvement in pain outcomes is via reductions in hyperalgesia and pain-related catastrophizing, a dysfunctional set of cognitive-emotional processes. However, the neural underpinnings of these CBT effects are unclear. Our aim was to assess CBT's effects on the brain circuitry underlying hyperalgesia in FM patients, and to explore the role of treatment-associated reduction in catastrophizing as a contributor to normalization of pain-relevant brain circuitry and clinical improvement. In total, 16 high-catastrophizing FM patients were enrolled in the study and randomized to 4 weeks of individual treatment with either CBT or a Fibromyalgia Education (control) condition. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans evaluated functional connectivity between key pain-processing brain regions at baseline and posttreatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, posttreatment, and 6-month follow-up. Catastrophizing correlated with increased resting state functional connectivity between S1 and anterior insula. The CBT group showed larger reductions (compared with the education group) in catastrophizing at posttreatment (PCBT produced significant reductions in both pain and catastrophizing at the 6-month follow-up (PCBT group also showed reduced resting state connectivity between S1 and anterior/medial insula at posttreatment; these reductions in resting state connectivity were associated with concurrent treatment-related reductions in catastrophizing. The results add to the growing support for the clinically important associations between S1-insula connectivity, clinical pain, and catastrophizing, and suggest that CBT may, in part via reductions in catastrophizing, help to normalize pain-related brain responses in FM.

  6. Stereotactic body radiation therapy versus conventional radiation therapy in patients with early stage non-small cell lung cancer - An updated retrospective study on local failure and survival rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeppesen, Stefan S.; Schytte, Tine; Hansen, Olfred; Jensen, Henrik R.; Brink, Carsten

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) for early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is now an accepted and patient friendly treatment, but still controversy exists about its comparability to conventional radiation therapy (RT). The purpose of this single-institutional report is to describe survival outcome for medically inoperable patients with early stage NSCLC treated with SBRT compared with high dose conventional RT. Material and methods: From August 2005 to June 2012, 100 medically inoperable patients were treated with SBRT at Odense Univ. Hospital. The thoracic RT consisted of 3 fractions (F) of 15-22 Gy delivered in nine days. For comparison a group of 32 medically inoperable patients treated with conventional RT with 80 Gy/35-40 F (5 F/week) in the period of July 1998 to August 2011 were analyzed. All tumors had histological or cytological proven NSCLC T1-2N0M0. Results: The median overall survival was 36.1 months versus 24.4 months for SBRT and conventional RT, respectively (p = 0.015). Local failure-free survival rates at one year were in SBRT group 93 % versus 89 % in the conventional RT group and at five years 69 % versus 66 %, SBRT and conventional RT respectively (p = 0.99). On multivariate analysis, female gender and performance status of 0-1 and SBRT predicted improved prognosis. Conclusion: In a cohort of patients with NSCLC there was a significant difference in overall survival favoring SBRT. Performance status of 0-1, female gender and SBRT predicted improved prognosis. However, staging procedure, confirmation procedure of recurrence and technical improvements of radiation treatment is likely to influence outcomes. However, SBRT seems to be as efficient as conventional RT and is a more convenient treatment for the patients

  7. Root causes investigation of catastrophic optical bulk damage in high-power InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sin, Yongkun; Lingley, Zachary; Ayvazian, Talin; Brodie, Miles; Ives, Neil

    2018-02-01

    High-power single-mode (SM) and multi-mode (MM) InGaAs-AlGaAs strained quantum well (QW) lasers are critical components for both terrestrial and space satellite communications systems. Since these lasers predominantly fail by catastrophic and sudden degradation due to COD, it is especially crucial for space satellite applications to investigate reliability, failure modes, and degradation mechanisms of these lasers. Our group reported a new failure mode in MM and SM InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers in 2009 and 2016, respectively. Our group also reported in 2017 that bulk failure due to catastrophic optical bulk damage (COBD) is the dominant failure mode of both SM and MM lasers that were subject to long-term life-tests. For the present study, we report root causes investigation of COBD by performing long-term lifetests followed by failure mode analysis (FMA) using various micro-analytical techniques including electron beam induced current (EBIC), time-resolved electroluminescence (EL), focused ion beam (FIB), high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and deep level transient spectroscopy (DLTS). Our life-tests with accumulated test hours of over 25,000 hours for SM lasers and over 35,000 hours for MM lasers generated a number of COBD failures with various failure times. EBIC techniques were employed to study dark line defects (DLDs) generated in SM COBD failures stressed under different test conditions. FIB and high-resolution TEM were employed to prepare cross sectional and plan view TEM specimens to study DLD areas (dislocations) in post-aged SM lasers. Time-resolved EL techniques were employed to study initiation and progressions of dark spots and dark lines in real time as MM lasers were aged. Lastly, to investigate precursor signatures of failure and degradation mechanisms responsible for COBD in both SM and MM lasers, we employed DLTS techniques to study a role that electron traps (non-radiative recombination centers) play in degradation of these

  8. A case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: first report with advanced cardiac imaging using MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenbaum, A N; Anavekar, N S; Ernste, F C; Mankad, S V; Le, R J; Manocha, K K; Barsness, G W

    2015-10-01

    This present case pertains to a 48-year-old woman with a history of antiphospholipid syndrome, who presented with progressive fatigue, generalized weakness, and orthopnea acutely. She had a prior diagnosis of antiphospholipid syndrome with recurrent deep vein thromboses (DVTs) and repeated demonstration of lupus anticoagulants. She presented in cardiogenic shock with markedly elevated troponin and global myocardial dysfunction on echocardiography, and cardiac catheterization revealed minimal disease. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging was performed, which revealed findings of perfusion defects and microvascular obstruction, consistent with the pathophysiology of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Diagnosis was made based on supportive imaging, including head magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealing multifocal, acute strokes; microvascular thrombosis in the dermis; and subacute renal infarctions. The patient was anticoagulated with intravenous unfractionated heparin and received high-dose methylprednisolone, plasmapheresis, intravenous immunoglobulin, and one dose each of rituximab and cyclophosphamide. She convalesced with eventual myocardial recovery after a complicated course. The diagnosis of CAPS relies on the presence of (1) antiphospholipid antibodies and (2) involvement of multiple organs in a microangiopathic thrombotic process with a close temporal association. The myocardium is frequently affected, and heart failure, either as the presenting symptom or cause of death, is common. Despite echocardiographic evidence of myocardial dysfunction in such patients, MRIs of CAPS have not previously been reported. This case highlights the utility in assessing the involvement of the myocardium by the microangiopathic process with MRI. Because the diagnosis of CAPS requires involvement in multiple organ systems, cardiac MRI is likely an underused tool that not only reaffirms the pathophysiology of CAPS, but could also clue clinicians in to the

  9. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS): Descriptive analysis of 500 patients from the International CAPS Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Moitinho, Marta; Santacreu, Irene; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Erkan, Doruk; Espinosa, Gerard; Cervera, Ricard

    2016-12-01

    To analyze the clinical and immunologic manifestations of patients with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) from the "CAPS Registry". The demographic, clinical and serological features of 500 patients included in the website-based "CAPS Registry" were analyzed. Frequency distribution and measures of central tendency were used to describe the cohort. Comparison between groups regarding qualitative variables was undertaken by chi-square or Fisher exact test while T-test for independent variables was used to compare groups regarding continuous variables. 500 patients (female: 343 [69%]; mean age 38±17) accounting for 522 episodes of CAPS were included in the analysis. Forty percent of patients had an associated autoimmune disease, mainly systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) (75%). The majority of CAPS episodes were triggered by a precipitating factor (65%), mostly infections (49%). Clinically, CAPS was characterized by several organ involvement affecting kidneys (73%), lungs (60%), brain (56%), heart (50%), and skin (47%). Lupus anticoagulant, IgG anticardiolipin and IgG anti-β2-glycprotein antibodies were the most often implicated antiphospholipid antibodies (83%, 81% and 78% respectively). Mortality accounted for 37% of episodes of CAPS. Several clinical differences could be observed based on the age of presentation and its association to SLE. Those cases triggered by a malignancy tended to occur in older patients, while CAPS episodes in young patients were associated with an infectious trigger and peripheral vessels involvement. Additionally, CAPS associated with SLE were more likely to have severe cardiac and brain involvement leading to a higher mortality (48%). Although the presentation of CAPS is characterized by multiorgan thrombosis and failure, clinical differences among patients exist based on age and underlying chronic diseases, e.g. malignancy and SLE. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Radiation protection training award - an innovative approach of testing radiation protection skills in catastrophe management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geringer, T.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: ARC Seibersdorf research is Austria's largest independent research institution. Apart from research and technical development, ARCS also offers special training an radiation protection. Having undergone intensive radiation protection training, security forces are also entitled to test their knowledge in a special 'radiation protection training award'. The prize is awarded in three different grades. ARCS Bronze award guarantees that the holder is competent in, both theoretical and practical aspects of a radiological accident. The follow-up Silver award requires additional competence in emergency management. Candidates having at least five years of professional experience and presenting a written thesis are considered for the Golden award. The holder is not only experienced in radiological catastrophe management including a competent theoretical background, but is also experienced enough to work out and improve his own emergency planning. ARC Seibersdorf research started with their radiation protection award as early as 1968. More then 10 000 candidates have been awarded since then. Most candidates are members of the Austrian Army or other security forces, although everyone above the age of 18 and undergone a basic course in radiation protection is entitled to participate. Even company internal awards have been given to ensure the quality of training applies to ARC Seibersdorf members as well. The prize is awarded in three different grades. ARCS Bronze award guarantees that the holder is competent in both theoretical and practical aspects of a radiological accident. The followup Silver award requires additional competence in emergency management. Candidates having at least five years of professional experience and presenting a written thesis, are considered for the Golden award. The holder is not only experienced in radiological catastrophe management including a competent theoretical background, but is also experienced enough to work out and improve his

  11. Risk assessment of failure modes of gas diffuser liner of V94.2 siemens gas turbine by FMEA method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzaei Rafsanjani, H.; Rezaei Nasab, A.

    2012-05-01

    Failure of welding connection of gas diffuser liner and exhaust casing is one of the failure modes of V94.2 gas turbines which are happened in some power plants. This defect is one of the uncertainties of customers when they want to accept the final commissioning of this product. According to this, the risk priority of this failure evaluated by failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) method to find out whether this failure is catastrophic for turbine performance and is harmful for humans. By using history of 110 gas turbines of this model which are used in some power plants, the severity number, occurrence number and detection number of failure determined and consequently the Risk Priority Number (RPN) of failure determined. Finally, critically matrix of potential failures is created and illustrated that failure modes are located in safe zone.

  12. Impact of Osteoarthritis on Household Catastrophic Health Expenditures in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyoungyoung; Cho, Soo-Kyung; Kim, Daehyun; Kim, Dalho; Jung, Sun-Young; Jang, Eun Jin; Sung, Yoon-Kyoung

    2018-05-21

    Osteoarthritis (OA) is a disease of old age whose prevalence is increasing. This study explored the impact of OA on household catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) in Korea. We used data on 5,200 households from the Korea Health Panel Survey in 2013 and estimated annual living expenses and out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Household CHE was defined when a household's total OOP health payments exceeded 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40% of the household's capacity to pay. To compare the OOP payments of households with OA individuals and those without OA, OA households were matched 1:1 with households containing a member with other chronic disease such as neoplasm, hypertension, heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, or osteoporosis. The impact of OA on CHE was determined by multivariable logistic analysis. A total of 1,289 households were included, and households with and without OA patients paid mean annual OOP payments of $2,789 and $2,607, respectively. The prevalence of household CHE at thresholds of 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40% were higher in households with OA patients than in those without OA patients ( P < 0.001). The presence of OA patients in each household contributed significantly to CHE at thresholds of 10% (odds ratio [OR], 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.87), 20% (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.01-1.66), and 30% (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.05-1.78), but not of 40% (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.87-1.57). The presence of OA patients in Korean households is significantly related to CHE. Policy makers should try to reduce OOP payments in households with OA patients.

  13. Theories of Lethal Mutagenesis: From Error Catastrophe to Lethal Defection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejero, Héctor; Montero, Francisco; Nuño, Juan Carlos

    2016-01-01

    RNA viruses get extinct in a process called lethal mutagenesis when subjected to an increase in their mutation rate, for instance, by the action of mutagenic drugs. Several approaches have been proposed to understand this phenomenon. The extinction of RNA viruses by increased mutational pressure was inspired by the concept of the error threshold. The now classic quasispecies model predicts the existence of a limit to the mutation rate beyond which the genetic information of the wild type could not be efficiently transmitted to the next generation. This limit was called the error threshold, and for mutation rates larger than this threshold, the quasispecies was said to enter into error catastrophe. This transition has been assumed to foster the extinction of the whole population. Alternative explanations of lethal mutagenesis have been proposed recently. In the first place, a distinction is made between the error threshold and the extinction threshold, the mutation rate beyond which a population gets extinct. Extinction is explained from the effect the mutation rate has, throughout the mutational load, on the reproductive ability of the whole population. Secondly, lethal defection takes also into account the effect of interactions within mutant spectra, which have been shown to be determinant for the understanding the extinction of RNA virus due to an augmented mutational pressure. Nonetheless, some relevant issues concerning lethal mutagenesis are not completely understood yet, as so survival of the flattest, i.e. the development of resistance to lethal mutagenesis by evolving towards mutationally more robust regions of sequence space, or sublethal mutagenesis, i.e., the increase of the mutation rate below the extinction threshold which may boost the adaptability of RNA virus, increasing their ability to develop resistance to drugs (including mutagens). A better design of antiviral therapies will still require an improvement of our knowledge about lethal

  14. Psychological flexibility and catastrophizing as associated change mechanisms during online Acceptance & Commitment Therapy for chronic pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trompetter, H.R.; Bohlmeijer, Ernst Thomas; Fox, Gerardus J.A.; Schreurs, Karlein Maria Gertrudis

    2015-01-01

    The underlying mechanisms of the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural interventions for chronic pain need further clarification. The role of, and associations between, pain-related psychological flexibility (PF) and pain catastrophizing (PC) were examined during a randomized controlled trial on

  15. Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

  16. Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J

    2016-04-01

    When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain.

  17. Pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of 45 patients from the "CAPS Registry".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Gregory, Simone; de Meis, Ernesto; Rodrigues, Carlos Ewerton Maia; Aikawa, Nádia Emi; de Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Springer, Janusz; Niedzwiecki, Maciej; Espinosa, Gerard

    2014-02-01

    Given the lack of information about catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric patients, the objective of the current study was to describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric patients with catastrophic APS and compare them with the adult patients with catastrophic APS. We identified patients who were under 18years of age at time of catastrophic APS diagnosis included in the international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry). Their main demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome were described and compared with those of adult patients with catastrophic APS. From the 446 patients included in the CAPS Registry as of May 2013, 45 (10.3%) patients developed 46 catastrophic events before 18years of age (one patient presented two episodes). Overall, 32 (71.1%) patients were female and the mean age was 11.5±4.6years (range, 3months-18years). A total of 31 (68.9%) patients suffered from primary APS and 13 (28.9%) from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The main differences between the two groups of patients were the higher prevalence of infections as precipitating factor for catastrophic event in the pediatric population (60.9% versus 26.8% in the adult population, p<0.001) and of peripheral vessel thrombosis (52.2% versus 34.3%, p=0.017). In addition, catastrophic APS was the first manifestation of APS more frequently in pediatric patients (86.6% versus 45.2%, p<0.001). Interestingly, pediatric patients showed a trend of lower mortality, although the difference was not statistically significant (26.1% versus 40.2%; odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-3.79; p=0.063). No differences were found neither in the laboratory features nor in the isolated or combination treatments between groups. Catastrophic APS in pediatric patients is a rare disease. There are minimal differences in the clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and

  18. Modeling the Effect of Privatization on Behavior of Hurst Exponent Using Stochastic Catastrophe Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

    In this paper using the global Hurst exponent, the impact of privatization of public companies in Iran on the degree of efficiency in Tehran Stock Exchange is assessed. The results show that selling public companies' share in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) leads to a structural break in degree of market development. To model this phenomenon a catastrophe approach is used and it is demonstrated that this structural break can be better explained by a cusp catastrophe model.

  19. Statistical and machine learning approaches for the minimization of trigger errors in parametric earthquake catastrophe bonds

    OpenAIRE

    Calvet, Laura

    2017-01-01

    Catastrophe bonds are financial instruments designed to transfer risk of monetary losses arising from earthquakes, hurricanes, or floods to the capital markets. The insurance and reinsurance industry, governments, and private entities employ them frequently to obtain coverage. Parametric catastrophe bonds base their payments on physical features. For instance, given parameters such as magnitude of the earthquake and the location of its epicentre, the bond may pay a fixed amount or not pay at ...

  20. A CATASTROPHIC-CUM-RESTORATIVE QUEUING SYSTEM WITH CORRELATED BATCH ARRIVALS AND VARIABLE CAPACITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakesh Kumar

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study a catastrophic-cum-restorative queuing system with correlated batch arrivals and service in batches of variable sizes. We perform the transient analysis of the queuing model. We obtain the Laplace Transform of the probability generating function of system size. Finally, some particular cases of the model have been derived and discussed. Keywords: Queue length, Catastrophes, Correlated batch arrivals, Broadband services, Variable service capacity, and Restoration.