WorldWideScience

Sample records for early catastrophic failure

  1. Catastrophic Failure and Critical Scaling Laws of Fiber Bundle Material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengwang Hao

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a spring-fiber bundle model used to describe the failure process induced by energy release in heterogeneous materials. The conditions that induce catastrophic failure are determined by geometric conditions and energy equilibrium. It is revealed that the relative rates of deformation of, and damage to the fiber bundle with respect to the boundary controlling displacement ε0 exhibit universal power law behavior near the catastrophic point, with a critical exponent of −1/2. The proportion of the rate of response with respect to acceleration exhibits a linear relationship with increasing displacement in the vicinity of the catastrophic point. This allows for the prediction of catastrophic failure immediately prior to failure by extrapolating the trajectory of this relationship as it asymptotes to zero. Monte Carlo simulations are completed and these two critical scaling laws are confirmed.

  2. Vitality of Neural Networks under Reoccurring Catastrophic Failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sardi, Shira; Goldental, Amir; Amir, Hamutal; Vardi, Roni; Kanter, Ido

    2016-08-17

    Catastrophic failures are complete and sudden collapses in the activity of large networks such as economics, electrical power grids and computer networks, which typically require a manual recovery process. Here we experimentally show that excitatory neural networks are governed by a non-Poissonian reoccurrence of catastrophic failures, where their repetition time follows a multimodal distribution characterized by a few tenths of a second and tens of seconds timescales. The mechanism underlying the termination and reappearance of network activity is quantitatively shown here to be associated with nodal time-dependent features, neuronal plasticity, where hyperactive nodes damage the response capability of their neighbors. It presents a complementary mechanism for the emergence of Poissonian catastrophic failures from damage conductivity. The effect that hyperactive nodes degenerate their neighbors represents a type of local competition which is a common feature in the dynamics of real-world complex networks, whereas their spontaneous recoveries represent a vitality which enhances reliable functionality.

  3. Catastrophic Cascade of Failures in Interdependent Networks

    CERN Document Server

    Havlin, S; Buldyrev, S V; Dias, C S; Parshani, R; Paul, G; Stanley, H E

    2010-01-01

    Modern network-like systems are usually coupled in such a way that failures in one network can affect the entire system. In infrastructures, biology, sociology, and economy, systems are interconnected and events taking place in one system can propagate to any other coupled system. Recent studies on such coupled systems show that the coupling increases their vulnerability to random failure. Properties for interdependent networks differ significantly from those of single-network systems. In this article, these results are reviewed and the main properties discussed.

  4. Catastrophic failure of a monolithic zirconia prosthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jae-Seung; Ji, Woon; Choi, Chang-Hoon; Kim, Sunjai

    2015-02-01

    Recently, monolithic zirconia restorations have received attention as an alternative to zirconia veneered with feldspathic porcelain to eliminate chipping failures of veneer ceramics. In this clinical report, a patient with mandibular edentulism received 4 dental implants in the interforaminal area, and a screw-retained monolithic zirconia prosthesis was fabricated. The patient also received a maxillary complete removable dental prosthesis over 4 anterior roots. At the 18-month follow-up, all of the zirconia cylinders were seen to be fractured, and the contacting abutment surfaces had lost structural integrity. The damaged abutments were replaced with new abutments, and a new prosthesis was delivered with a computer-assisted design and computer-assisted manufacturing fabricated titanium framework with denture teeth and denture base resins. At the 6-month recall, the patient did not have any problems. Dental zirconia has excellent physical properties; however, care should be taken to prevent excessive stresses on the zirconia cylinders when a screw-retained zirconia restoration is planned as a definitive prosthesis.

  5. Fold catastrophe model of dynamic pillar failure in asymmetric mining

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PAN Yue; LI Ai-wu; QI Yun-song

    2009-01-01

    A rock burst disaster not only destroys the pit facilities and results in economic loss but it also threatens the life of the miners. Pillar rock burst has a higher frequency of occurrence in the pit compared to other kinds of rock burst. Understanding the cause, magnitude and prevention of pillar rock burst is a significant undertaking. Equations describing the bending moment and displacement of the rock beam in asymmetric mining have been deduced for simplified asymmetric beam-pillar systems. Using the symbolic operation software MAPLE 9.5 a catastrophe model of the dynamic failure of an asymmetric rock-beam pillar system has been established. The differential form of the total potential function deduced from the law of conservation of energy was used for this deduction. The critical conditions and the initial and final positions of the pillar during failure have been given in analytical form. The amount of elastic energy released by the rock beam at the instant of failure is determined as well as. A diagrammatic form showing the pillar failure was plotted using MATLAB software. This plot contains a wealth of information and is important for understanding the behavior during each deformation phase of the rock-beam pillar system. The graphic also aids in distinguishing the equivalent stiffness of the rock beam in different directions.

  6. Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weir, D. [Intercultural Management, Rue Dostoievski, BP 085, 06902 Sophia Antipolis (France)]. E-mail: dweir@tinyworld.co.uk

    2004-07-01

    This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

  7. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaput, Geneviève; Lajoie, Susanne P.; Naismith, Laura M.; Lavigne, Gilles

    2016-01-01

    Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1) and 8 weeks (Time 2) after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r = .31 to .44), number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r = .35 to .45), psychological distress (r = .57 to .67), and level of functionality (r = −.43 to −.29). Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2). Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms. PMID:27445604

  8. Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneviève Chaput

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

  9. Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai;

    2013-01-01

    Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single-event ove......Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single......-event overstress. The wear out failure under field operation could be mitigated by scheduled maintenances based on lifetime prediction and condition monitoring. However, the catastrophic failure is difficult to be predicted and thus may lead to serious consequence of power electronic converters. To obtain a better...... understanding of catastrophic failure of IGBTs, the state-of-the-art research on their failure behaviors and failure mechanisms is presented in this paper. Moreover, various fault-tolerant design methods, to prevent converter level malfunctions in the event of IGBT failure, are also reviewed....

  10. Rate-weakening friction characterizes both slow sliding and catastrophic failure of landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handwerger, Alexander L.; Rempel, Alan W.; Skarbek, Rob M.; Roering, Joshua J.; Hilley, George E.

    2016-09-01

    Catastrophic landslides cause billions of dollars in damages and claim thousands of lives annually, whereas slow-moving landslides with negligible inertia dominate sediment transport on many weathered hillslopes. Surprisingly, both failure modes are displayed by nearby landslides (and individual landslides in different years) subjected to almost identical environmental conditions. Such observations have motivated the search for mechanisms that can cause slow-moving landslides to transition via runaway acceleration to catastrophic failure. A similarly diverse range of sliding behavior, including earthquakes and slow-slip events, occurs along tectonic faults. Our understanding of these phenomena has benefitted from mechanical treatments that rely upon key ingredients that are notably absent from previous landslide descriptions. Here, we describe landslide motion using a rate- and state-dependent frictional model that incorporates a nonlocal stress balance to account for the elastic response to gradients in slip. Our idealized, one-dimensional model reproduces both the displacement patterns observed in slow-moving landslides and the acceleration toward failure exhibited by catastrophic events. Catastrophic failure occurs only when the slip surface is characterized by rate-weakening friction and its lateral dimensions exceed a critical nucleation length h*h* that is shorter for higher effective stresses. However, landslides that are extensive enough to fall within this regime can nevertheless slide slowly for months or years before catastrophic failure. Our results suggest that the diversity of slip behavior observed during landslides can be described with a single model adapted from standard fault mechanics treatments.

  11. Rate-weakening friction characterizes both slow sliding and catastrophic failure of landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handwerger, Alexander L; Rempel, Alan W; Skarbek, Rob M; Roering, Joshua J; Hilley, George E

    2016-09-13

    Catastrophic landslides cause billions of dollars in damages and claim thousands of lives annually, whereas slow-moving landslides with negligible inertia dominate sediment transport on many weathered hillslopes. Surprisingly, both failure modes are displayed by nearby landslides (and individual landslides in different years) subjected to almost identical environmental conditions. Such observations have motivated the search for mechanisms that can cause slow-moving landslides to transition via runaway acceleration to catastrophic failure. A similarly diverse range of sliding behavior, including earthquakes and slow-slip events, occurs along tectonic faults. Our understanding of these phenomena has benefitted from mechanical treatments that rely upon key ingredients that are notably absent from previous landslide descriptions. Here, we describe landslide motion using a rate- and state-dependent frictional model that incorporates a nonlocal stress balance to account for the elastic response to gradients in slip. Our idealized, one-dimensional model reproduces both the displacement patterns observed in slow-moving landslides and the acceleration toward failure exhibited by catastrophic events. Catastrophic failure occurs only when the slip surface is characterized by rate-weakening friction and its lateral dimensions exceed a critical nucleation length [Formula: see text] that is shorter for higher effective stresses. However, landslides that are extensive enough to fall within this regime can nevertheless slide slowly for months or years before catastrophic failure. Our results suggest that the diversity of slip behavior observed during landslides can be described with a single model adapted from standard fault mechanics treatments.

  12. Energy analysis for damage and catastrophic failure of rocks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The development history and current state of studies on the characteristics and mechanisms of deformation and failure of rock materials were briefly reviewed from the viewpoint of energy.The main scope and the achievable objectives of the energy-based research system were expatiated.It was validated by experiments that the damage process of rocks can be well described by the rock damage evolution equation established based on energy dissipation.It was found from the uniaxial compression and biaxial compression tests that only a small proportion of the total input energy in hard rocks is dissipated before peak load and a large proportion in soft rocks is dissipated before peak load.For both hard and soft rocks,the energy dissipated after peak load accounts for a greater proportion.More energy would be required for rock failure under equal biaxial compression than under unequal biaxial compression.The total absorbed energy is different for rock failure under high-rate loading and low-rate loading.More fragmented failure pattern usually corresponds to higher energy absorption.The mesoscopic analysis on the damage and failure of bedded salt rocks showed that the energy dissipation is prominent and the total absorbed energy for rock failure is low when cracks propagate in the weak mud interlayer while it is contrary when cracks propagate in the salt rock.The energy accumulation,transfer,dissipation and release during the failure process of tunnel with impending failure under disturbance were analyzed theoretically based on the elastoplastic mechanics theory.Furthermore,the spatial distribution of energy dissipation and energy release of fractured rocks under unloading was simulated numerically.It was demonstrated that energy is likely to be released from the weakest surface under compression,which triggers the global failure of rocks.

  13. Revealing catastrophic failure of leaf networks under stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodribb, Timothy J; Bienaimé, Diane; Marmottant, Philippe

    2016-04-26

    The intricate patterns of veins that adorn the leaves of land plants are among the most important networks in biology. Water flows in these leaf irrigation networks under tension and is vulnerable to embolism-forming cavitations, which cut off water supply, ultimately causing leaf death. Understanding the ways in which plants structure their vein supply network to protect against embolism-induced failure has enormous ecological and evolutionary implications, but until now there has been no way of observing dynamic failure in natural leaf networks. Here we use a new optical method that allows the initiation and spread of embolism bubbles in the leaf network to be visualized. Examining embolism-induced failure of architecturally diverse leaf networks, we found that conservative rules described the progression of hydraulic failure within veins. The most fundamental rule was that within an individual venation network, susceptibility to embolism always increased proportionally with the size of veins, and initial nucleation always occurred in the largest vein. Beyond this general framework, considerable diversity in the pattern of network failure was found between species, related to differences in vein network topology. The highest-risk network was found in a fern species, where single events caused massive disruption to leaf water supply, whereas safer networks in angiosperm leaves contained veins with composite properties, allowing a staged failure of water supply. These results reveal how the size structure of leaf venation is a critical determinant of the spread of embolism damage to leaves during drought.

  14. Chronic heart failure: Ca(2+), catabolism, and catastrophic cell death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Geoffrey W; Altamirano, Francisco; Hill, Joseph A

    2016-04-01

    Robust successes have been achieved in recent years in conquering the acutely lethal manifestations of heart disease. Many patients who previously would have died now survive to enjoy happy and productive lives. Nevertheless, the devastating impact of heart disease continues unabated, as the spectrum of disease has evolved with new manifestations. In light of this ever-evolving challenge, insights that culminate in novel therapeutic targets are urgently needed. Here, we review fundamental mechanisms of heart failure, both with reduced (HFrEF) and preserved (HFpEF) ejection fraction. We discuss pathways that regulate cardiomyocyte remodeling and turnover, focusing on Ca(2+) signaling, autophagy, and apoptosis. In particular, we highlight recent insights pointing to novel connections among these events. We also explore mechanisms whereby potential therapeutic approaches targeting these processes may improve morbidity and mortality in the devastating syndrome of heart failure.

  15. Berm design to reduce risks of catastrophic slope failures at solid waste disposal sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Stefano, Matteo; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Clemmer, Ryan; Jahanfar, M Ali

    2016-11-01

    Existing waste disposal sites are being strained by exceeding their volumetric capacities because of exponentially increasing rates of municipal solid waste generation worldwide, especially in densely populated metropolises. Over the past 40 years, six well-documented and analyzed disposal sites experienced catastrophic failure. This research presents a novel analysis and design method for implementation of a series of in-situ earth berms to slow down the movement of waste material flow following a catastrophic failure. This is the first study of its kind that employs a dynamic landslide analysis model, DAN-W, and the Voellmy rheological model to approximate solid waste avalanche flow. A variety of single and multiple berm configuration scenarios were developed and tested to find an optimum configuration of the various earth berm geometries and number of berms to achieve desired energy dissipation and reduction in total waste material runout length. The case study application of the novel mitigation measure shows that by constructing a series of six relatively inexpensive 3 m high earth berms at an optimum distance of 250 m from the slope toe, the total runout length of 1000 m and associated fatalities of the Leuwigajah dumpsite catastrophic failure in Bandung, Indonesia, could have been reduced by half. © The Author(s) 2016.

  16. A hazard and risk classification system for catastrophic rock slope failures in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermanns, R.; Oppikofer, T.; Anda, E.; Blikra, L. H.; Böhme, M.; Bunkholt, H.; Dahle, H.; Devoli, G.; Eikenæs, O.; Fischer, L.; Harbitz, C. B.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Loew, S.; Yugsi Molina, F. X.

    2012-04-01

    The Geological Survey of Norway carries out systematic geologic mapping of potentially unstable rock slopes in Norway that can cause a catastrophic failure. As catastrophic failure we describe failures that involve substantial fragmentation of the rock mass during run-out and that impact an area larger than that of a rock fall (shadow angle of ca. 28-32° for rock falls). This includes therefore rock slope failures that lead to secondary effects, such as a displacement wave when impacting a water body or damming of a narrow valley. Our systematic mapping revealed more than 280 rock slopes with significant postglacial deformation, which might represent localities of large future rock slope failures. This large number necessitates prioritization of follow-up activities, such as more detailed investigations, periodic monitoring and permanent monitoring and early-warning. In the past hazard and risk were assessed qualitatively for some sites, however, in order to compare sites so that political and financial decisions can be taken, it was necessary to develop a quantitative hazard and risk classification system. A preliminary classification system was presented and discussed with an expert group of Norwegian and international experts and afterwards adapted following their recommendations. This contribution presents the concept of this final hazard and risk classification that should be used in Norway in the upcoming years. Historical experience and possible future rockslide scenarios in Norway indicate that hazard assessment of large rock slope failures must be scenario-based, because intensity of deformation and present displacement rates, as well as the geological structures activated by the sliding rock mass can vary significantly on a given slope. In addition, for each scenario the run-out of the rock mass has to be evaluated. This includes the secondary effects such as generation of displacement waves or landslide damming of valleys with the potential of later

  17. Study on Catastrophic Air Current Early-warning and Control System of Coalmines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.F. Fang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic air current significantly influences the stability of ventilation system, and existing studies have not considered the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current when designing the control systems. To analyze the effects of different kinds of coalmine accidents on safety production, grey relation entropy theory was used to analyze the hazard assessment of coalmine accidents. Fluent software was employed to study the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current, and the catastrophic air current early-warning and control system of coalmine was researched according to the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. The threat of fire accidents and roof accidents were larger than other accidents. The influence of temperature and CO volume fraction distribution of fire accidents to the tailwind side was larger than that of the weather side, and gradient decreased on the weather side. This system can effectively control the spread of fire and poisonous gas,

  18. Analytical and computational methodology to assess the over pressures generated by a potential catastrophic failure of a cryogenic pressure vessel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zamora, I.; Fradera, J.; Jaskiewicz, F.; Lopez, D.; Hermosa, B.; Aleman, A.; Izquierdo, J.; Buskop, J.

    2014-07-01

    Idom has participated in the risk evaluation of Safety Important Class (SIC) structures due to over pressures generated by a catastrophic failure of a cryogenic pressure vessel at ITER plant site. The evaluation implements both analytical and computational methodologies achieving consistent and robust results. (Author)

  19. The 27 May 1937 catastrophic flow failure of gold tailings at Tlalpujahua, Michoacan, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias, J. L.; Corona-Chavez, P.; Sanchez-Nunez, J. M.; Martinez-Medina, M.; Garduno-Monroy, V. H.; Capra, L.; Garcia-Tenorio, F.; Cisneros-Maximo, G.

    2015-05-01

    On 27 May 1937, after one week of sustained heavy rainfall, a voluminous flood caused the death of at least 300 people and the destruction of the historic El Carmen church and several neighborhoods in the mining region of Tlalpujahua, Michoacan, central Mexico. This destructive flood was triggered by the breaching of the impoundment of the Los Cedros tailings and the sudden release of circa 16 Mt of water-saturated waste materials. The muddy silty flood, moving at estimated speeds of 20-25 m s-1, was channelized along the Dos Estrellas and Tlalpujahua drainages and devastated everything along its flow path. After advancing 2.5 km downstream, the flood slammed into El Carmen church and surrounding houses at estimated speeds of ~ 7 m s-1, destroying many construction walls and covering the church floor with ~ 2 m of mud and debris. Revision of eyewitness accounts and newspaper articles, together with analysis of archived photographic materials, indicated that the flood consisted of three muddy pulses. Stratigraphic relations and granulometric data for selected proximal and distal samples show that the flood behaved as a hyperconcentrated flow along most of its trajectory. A total volume of the Lamas flood deposit was estimated as 1.5 x 106 m3. The physically based bidimensional (2-D) hydraulic model FLO-2D was implemented to reproduce the breached flow (0.5 sediment concentration) with a maximum flow discharge of 8000 m3 s-1 for a total outflow volume (sediment + water) of 2.5 x 106 m3, similar to the calculations obtained using field measurements. Even though premonitory signs of possible impoundment failure were reported days before the flood, and people living downstream were alerted, authorities ordered no evacuations or other mitigative actions. The catastrophic flood at Tlalpujahua provides a well-documented, though tragic, example of impoundment breaching of a tailings dam caused by the combined effects of intense rainfall, dam weakness, and inadequate

  20. Early failure of bioabsorbable anterior cervical fusion plates: case report and failure analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brkaric, Mario; Baker, Kevin C; Israel, Raj; Harding, Trevor; Montgomery, David M; Herkowitz, Harry N

    2007-05-01

    Case report with forensic failure analysis. To determine the failure modes of 3 explanted 70:30 PLDLA Mystique (Medtronic Sofamor Danek, Memphis, TN) graft containment plates retrieved from revision surgery for early device failure. To reduce the problems of stress-shielding and radiopacity associated with metallic systems, bioabsorbable polymers have been used in anterior cervical discectomy and fusion procedures. Degradation of mechanical properties in vivo is a major concern when using bioabsorbable systems. Three of 6 patients who underwent anterior cervical discectomy with instrumented fusion, using Mystique graft containment systems experienced early failure requiring revision to alternate hardware. Devices were retrieved after failure and analyzed by light microscopy and environmental scanning electron microscopy. Simulations were performed with an unused plating system to induce damage for comparison with the retrieved devices. A detailed case review was performed to identify possible sources of extraordinary loading or damage. One plating system failed at 6 weeks postimplantation due to fatigue fracture of the screws. Crack initiation sites were identified at the interface of the thread root and mold line of the screw. Another plating system failed at 16 weeks postimplantation due to the coalescence of radial microcracking between holes in the plate, leading to catastrophic failure of the plate. The final plating system failed during the implantation surgery, when the screw fractured in torsion. Stress concentrations at the screw head-shaft interface and thread-shaft interface reduce the fatigue performance of bioabsorbable screws. Hydrolysis of the polymer may also play a role in the reduction of resistance to crack initiation and propagation.

  1. Successes and failures of compulsory risk mitigation: re-evaluating the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Başbuğ-Erkan, B Burcak; Yilmaz, Ozlem

    2015-10-01

    The Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) is one of the best practices of public-private partnerships in an emerging market designed to reduce economic losses from disasters. This paper reviews the application of this compulsory mechanism along with data relating to the performance of the scheme following recent earthquakes in Turkey. We also consider the current perceptions of Turkish society towards the TCIP and how they can be enhanced. Our conclusions aim to assist stakeholders in government, homeowners, insurance companies, media, banks and civil society to appreciate the value of the system and key actions necessary to improve it.

  2. Significance of the actual nonlinear slope geometry for catastrophic failure in submarine landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puzrin, Alexander M; Gray, Thomas E; Hill, Andrew J

    2015-03-08

    A simple approach to slope stability analysis of naturally occurring, mild nonlinear slopes is proposed through extension of shear band propagation (SBP) theory. An initial weak zone appears in the steepest part of the slope where the combined action of gravity and seismic loads overcomes the degraded peak shear resistance of the soil. If the length of this steepest part is larger than the critical length, the shear band will propagate into the quasi-stable parts of the slope, where the gravitational and seismically induced shear stresses are smaller than the peak but larger than the residual shear strength of the soil. Growth of a shear band is strongly dependent on the shape of the slope, seismic parameters and the strength of soil and less dependent on the slope inclination and the sensitivity of clay. For the slope surface with faster changing inclination, the criterion is more sensitive to the changes of the parameters. Accounting for the actual nonlinear slope geometry eliminates the main challenge of the SBP approach-determination of the length of the initial weak zone, because the slope geometry can be readily obtained from submarine site investigations. It also helps to identify conditions for the early arrest of the shear band, before failure in the sliding layer or a change in loading or excess pore water pressures occurs. The difference in the size of a landslide predicted by limiting equilibrium and SBP approaches can reach orders of magnitude, potentially providing an explanation for the immense dimensions of many observed submarine landslides that may be caused by local factors acting over a limited portion of the slope.

  3. STUDY ON CATASTROPHIC MECHANISM FOR ROTOR DROP TRANSIENT VIBRATION FOLLOWING MAGNETIC BEARING FAILURE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    方之楚

    2002-01-01

    The nonlinear and transient vibration of a rotor, which dropped onto back-up bearings when its active magnetic bearings were out of order, was investigated. After strictly deriving its equations of motion and performing numerical simulations, the timehistories of rotating speed of the dropping rotor, and normal force at the rubbing contact point as well as the frequency spectrum of the vibration displacement of back-up bearings are fully analyzed. It is found that the strong and unsteady forced bending vibration of the unbalanced and damped rotor decelerating through its first bending vibtation of the unbalanced and damped rotor decelerating through its first critical speed as well as chattering at high frequencies caused by the nonlinearity at the rubbing contact point between the journal and back-up bearings may lead to the catastrophic damage of the system.

  4. Catastrophic failure of a low profile metal-backed glenoid component after total shoulder arthroplasty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carley B Vuillermin

    2015-01-01

    Conclusion: Analysis of the mode of failure of implants identified by robust registries is essential for the development of new prostheses and the pursuit of prosthesis longevity. This low profile metal backed prosthesis has been withdrawn, but without a published mechanism of failure. We feel that any prosthesis withdrawal should be accompanied by appropriate published mechanisms to prevent future component design errors based on similar design problems.

  5. Evaluation and management of early virological failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sax, Paul E

    2006-09-01

    To describe the causes, evaluation, and management of early virological failure in patients treated with their first antiretroviral regimen. Combination antiretroviral therapy predictably induces a rapid virological response, with the majority of patients achieving an undetectable HIV-RNA load by week 24. In clinical trials and cohorts, rates of virological suppression have improved over time. Poor adherence to therapy remains the most common cause of virological failure, and genotype resistance testing is a critical step in evaluating the optimal subsequent approach. Most studies suggest that transient HIV-RNA elevations do not warrant changing treatment, and may be a consequence of laboratory variation. For those who experience virological failure, resistance to individual components of the antiretroviral regimen is dependent on the initial choice of treatment. Once virological failure is confirmed and adherence issues addressed, a prompt change in treatment is warranted to limit the selection of further drug resistance. Resistance that occurs with early virological failure follows typical patterns, with limited resistance to most antiretroviral agents in the nucleoside reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitor classes. The likelihood of achieving virological suppression with subsequent regimens should be high so long as adherence can be assured.

  6. From incipient slope instability through slope deformation to catastrophic failure - Different stages of failure development on the Ivasnasen and Vollan rock slopes (western Norway)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppikofer, T.; Saintot, A.; Hermanns, R. L.; Böhme, M.; Scheiber, T.; Gosse, J.; Dreiås, G. M.

    2017-07-01

    The long-term evolution of rock slope failures involves different stages, from incipience of slope instability to catastrophic failure, through a more or less long-lasting slope deformation phase that also involves creeping or sliding. Topography, lithology, and structural inheritance are the main intrinsic factors that influence this evolution. Here, we investigate the role of these intrinsic factors on the rock slope failure development of the Ivasnasen and Vollan rock slopes (Sunndal Valley, western Norway) using a multitechnique approach that includes geomorphologic and structural field mapping, kinematic analysis, terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating, topographic reconstruction, and deformation quantification. Ivasnasen is a rock slope failure complex with several past rock slope failures and a present unstable rock slope, located on a cataclinal NW-facing slope and developed in augen gneiss. Vollan on the opposite valley side is a deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (DSGSD) affecting the whole mountainside, developed in quartzite in the upper part and micaschist in the lower part. These different lithologies belong to different nappe complexes that were emplaced and folded into a series of syn- and anticlines during the Caledonian orogeny. These folds lead to different lithologies being exposed in different structural orientations on the opposite valley flanks, which in turn leads to different types and evolution of rock slope failures. At Ivasnasen the 45°-55° NW-dipping ductile foliation allowed for a fairly simple planar sliding mechanism for the 1.2 million m3 post-glacial rock slope failure. Failure occurred ca. 3.3 ka ago after a short period of prefailure deformation. For the present 2.2 million m3 unstable rock slope at Ivasnasen, a steepening of the foliation at the toe impedes such a mechanism and up to 10 m of displacement has not lead to a catastrophic failure yet. The Vollan DSGSD is characterized by a steep major back scarp

  7. Neural mechanisms underlying catastrophic failure in human-machine interaction during aerial navigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saproo, Sameer; Shih, Victor; Jangraw, David C.; Sajda, Paul

    2016-12-01

    Objective. We investigated the neural correlates of workload buildup in a fine visuomotor task called the boundary avoidance task (BAT). The BAT has been known to induce naturally occurring failures of human-machine coupling in high performance aircraft that can potentially lead to a crash—these failures are termed pilot induced oscillations (PIOs). Approach. We recorded EEG and pupillometry data from human subjects engaged in a flight BAT simulated within a virtual 3D environment. Main results. We find that workload buildup in a BAT can be successfully decoded from oscillatory features in the electroencephalogram (EEG). Information in delta, theta, alpha, beta, and gamma spectral bands of the EEG all contribute to successful decoding, however gamma band activity with a lateralized somatosensory topography has the highest contribution, while theta band activity with a fronto-central topography has the most robust contribution in terms of real-world usability. We show that the output of the spectral decoder can be used to predict PIO susceptibility. We also find that workload buildup in the task induces pupil dilation, the magnitude of which is significantly correlated with the magnitude of the decoded EEG signals. These results suggest that PIOs may result from the dysregulation of cortical networks such as the locus coeruleus (LC)—anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) circuit. Significance. Our findings may generalize to similar control failures in other cases of tight man-machine coupling where gains and latencies in the control system must be inferred and compensated for by the human operators. A closed-loop intervention using neurophysiological decoding of workload buildup that targets the LC-ACC circuit may positively impact operator performance in such situations.

  8. [Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisłowska, Małgorzata

    2015-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is the most dangerous form of the antiphospholipid syndrome, which is characterized by rapid onset of thrombosis in small vessels of many organs and intravascular coagulation, thrombocytopenia and hemolytic anemia. The syndrome develops over a short period of time with acute multi-organ failure, including kidney, respiratory, cardiovascular, central nervous system and adrenal glands, often associated with disseminated thrombotic microangiopathy. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome involves three or more systems, organs and/or tissues, the development of symptoms must occur within less than one week, it is necessary to confirm the histopathological vascular occlusion in at least one organ or tissue, and laboratory confirmation of the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies in the serum on two occasions over an interval of 12 weeks. This syndrome is characterized by a high mortality despite the use of optimal treatment. Early diagnosis and aggressive treatment of patients with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is essential to save the life of these patients. In the last 10 years, the mortality in this disease decreased from 50% to 30% with simultaneous treatment with anticoagulants, corticosteroids, plasmapheresis and immunoglobulins.

  9. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fort, H [Complex Systems Group, Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Mazzeo, N [Depto. de EcologIa, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Scheffer, M; Nes, E van, E-mail: hugo@fisica.edu.u [Wageningen Agricultural University, Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2010-09-01

    Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

  10. Catastrophic rock slope failures and late Quaternary developments in the Nanga Parbat-Haramosh Massif, Upper Indus basin, northern Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Kenneth

    2009-06-01

    The Nanga Parbat-Haramosh Massif has some of the greatest relief on Earth and highest measured rates of uplift, denudation, and river incision in bedrock. Many studies have sought to understand how its morphology relates to geotectonic evolution and glaciations. However, few catastrophic rock slope failures had been recognised and many of their impacts had been attributed to other processes. Recently more than 150 of these landslides have been found within a 100-km radius of Nanga Parbat (8125 m). New discoveries are reported east, north and west of Nanga Parbat along the Indus streams. Most generated long-run-out rock avalanches that dammed the Indus or its tributaries, some impounding large lakes. They initiated episodes of intermontane sedimentation followed by trenching and removal of sediment. Valley-floor features record a complex interplay of impoundment and sedimentation episodes, superimposition of streams in pre-landslide valley floors, and exhumation of buried features. These findings depart from existing reconstructions of Quaternary events. A number of the rock-avalanche deposits were previously misinterpreted as tills or moraine and their associated lacustrine deposits attributed to glacial lakes. Features up to 1000 m above the Indus, formerly seen as tectonically raised terraces, are depositional features emplaced by landslides, or erosion terraces recording the trenching of valley fill in landslide-interrupted river reaches. Unquestionably, tectonics and glaciation have been important but decisive and misread formative events of the Holocene involve a post-glacial, landslide-fragmented fluvial system. The latter has kept valley developments in a chronic state of disequilibrium with respect to climatic and geotectonic controls. Accepted glacial chronologies are put in doubt, particularly the extent and timing of the last major glaciation. The pace and role processes in the Holocene have been seriously underestimated.

  11. The 27 May 1937 catastrophic flow failure of gold tailings at Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macías, J. L.; Corona-Chávez, P.; Sanchéz-Núñez, J. M.; Martínez-Medina, M.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.; García-Tenorio, F.; Cisneros-Máximo, G.

    2014-08-01

    On 27 May 1937, after one week of sustained heavy rainfall, a voluminous flood caused the death of at least 300 people and the destruction of the historic El Carmen church and several neighborhoods in the mining region of Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, central Mexico. This destructive flood was triggered by the breaching of the impoundment of the Los Cedros tailings and the sudden release of 16 Mt of water-saturated waste materials. The muddy silty flood, moving at estimated speeds of 20-25 m s-1, was channelized along the Dos Estrellas and Tlalpujahua drainages and devastated everything along its flow path. After advancing 2.5 km downstream, the flood slammed into El Carmen church and surrounding houses at estimated speeds of ~7 m s-1, destroying many of construction walls and covering the church floor with ~2 m of mud and debris. Eyewitness accounts and newspaper articles, together with analysis of archived photographic materials, indicated that the flood consisted of three muddy pulses. This interpretation is confirmed and extended by the results of our geological investigations during 2013 and 2014. Stratigraphic relations and granulometric data for selected proximal and distal samples show that the flood behaved as a hyperconcentrated flow along most of its trajectory. Even though premonitory signs of possible impoundment failure were reported days before the flood, and people living downstream were alerted, authorities ordered no evacuations or other mitigative actions. The catastrophic flood at Tlalpujahua provides a well-documented, though tragic, example of impoundment breaching of a tailings dam caused by the combined effects of intense rainfall, dam weakness, and inadequate emergency-management protocols - unfortunately an all too common case-scenario for most of the world's mining regions.

  12. Catastrophic lava dome failure at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, 12-13 July 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herd, Richard A.; Edmonds, Marie; Bass, Venus A.

    2005-01-01

    The lava dome collapse of 12–13 July 2003 was the largest of the Soufrière Hills Volcano eruption thus far (1995–2005) and the largest recorded in historical times from any volcano; 210 million m3 of dome material collapsed over 18 h and formed large pyroclastic flows, which reached the sea. The evolution of the collapse can be interpreted with reference to the complex structure of the lava dome, which comprised discrete spines and shear lobes and an apron of talus. Progressive slumping of talus for 10 h at the beginning of the collapse generated low-volume pyroclastic flows. It undermined the massive part of the lava dome and eventually prompted catastrophic failure. From 02:00 to 04:40 13 July 2003 large pyroclastic flows were generated; these reached their largest magnitude at 03:35, when the volume flux of material lost from the lava dome probably approached 16 million m3 over two minutes. The high flux of pyroclastic flows into the sea caused a tsunami and a hydrovolcanic explosion with an associated pyroclastic surge, which flowed inland. A vulcanian explosion occurred during or immediately after the largest pyroclastic flows at 03:35 13 July and four further explosions occurred at progressively longer intervals during 13–15 July 2003. The dome collapse lasted approximately 18 h, but 170 of the total 210 million m3 was removed in only 2.6 h during the most intense stage of the collapse.

  13. The 27 May 1937 catastrophic flow failure of gold tailings at Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, México

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Macías

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available On 27 May 1937, after one week of sustained heavy rainfall, a voluminous flood caused the death of at least 300 people and the destruction of the historic El Carmen church and several neighborhoods in the mining region of Tlalpujahua, Michoacán, central Mexico. This destructive flood was triggered by the breaching of the impoundment of the Los Cedros tailings and the sudden release of 16 Mt of water-saturated waste materials. The muddy silty flood, moving at estimated speeds of 20–25 m s−1, was channelized along the Dos Estrellas and Tlalpujahua drainages and devastated everything along its flow path. After advancing 2.5 km downstream, the flood slammed into El Carmen church and surrounding houses at estimated speeds of ~7 m s−1, destroying many of construction walls and covering the church floor with ~2 m of mud and debris. Eyewitness accounts and newspaper articles, together with analysis of archived photographic materials, indicated that the flood consisted of three muddy pulses. This interpretation is confirmed and extended by the results of our geological investigations during 2013 and 2014. Stratigraphic relations and granulometric data for selected proximal and distal samples show that the flood behaved as a hyperconcentrated flow along most of its trajectory. Even though premonitory signs of possible impoundment failure were reported days before the flood, and people living downstream were alerted, authorities ordered no evacuations or other mitigative actions. The catastrophic flood at Tlalpujahua provides a well-documented, though tragic, example of impoundment breaching of a tailings dam caused by the combined effects of intense rainfall, dam weakness, and inadequate emergency-management protocols – unfortunately an all too common case-scenario for most of the world's mining regions.

  14. Heart Failure Protein May Signal Early Brain Damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_162447.html Heart Failure Protein May Signal Early Brain Damage Higher levels ... stress. Blood levels of NT-proBNP rise when heart failure worsens and fall when it gets better. Previous ...

  15. CATASTROPHIC BUDGET FAILURE

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Leonard E. Burman; Jeffrey Rohaly; Joseph Rosenberg; Katherine C. Lim

    2010-01-01

    .... Exacerbated by the recent economic turmoil and fueled by the willingness of creditors to lend at very low interest rates, there is significant risk that necessary fiscal reform will be put off...

  16. Co-detection of acoustic emissions during failure of heterogeneous media: new perspectives for natural hazard early warning

    CERN Document Server

    Faillettaz, J; Reiweger, I

    2015-01-01

    A promising method for real time early warning of gravity driven rupture that considers both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation is proposed. The method capitalizes on co-detection of elastic waves emanating from micro-cracks by multiple and spatially separated sensors. Event co-detection is considered as surrogate for large event size with more frequent co-detected events marking imminence of catastrophic failure. Using a spatially explicit fiber bundle numerical model with spatially correlated mechanical strength and two load redistribution rules, we constructed a range of mechanical failure scenarios and associated failure events (mapped into AE) in space and time. Analysis considering hypothetical arrays of sensors and consideration of signal attenuation demonstrate the potential of the co-detection principles even for insensitive sensors to provide early warning for imminent global failure.

  17. Parent Pain and Catastrophizing Are Associated With Pain, Somatic Symptoms, and Pain-Related Disability Among Early Adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Wilson, Anna C; Moss, Ashley; Palermo, Tonya M.; Fales, Jessica L.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine associations between parental history of pain and catastrophizing and their adolescent’s pain, somatic symptoms, catastrophizing, and disability. Methods Participants included 178 youths aged 11–14 years recruited through public schools. Adolescents completed measures assessing pain characteristics, somatic symptoms, and pain catastrophizing. Parents reported on their own pain, and catastrophizing about their adolescent’s pain. Results About one quarter of the adolescents...

  18. Can we Detect Ecosystem Critical Transitions and Early Warning Signals of Catastrophic Shifts from Palaeo-Ecological Records?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perga, M. E.; Taranu, Z. E.; Gregory-Eaves, I.; Frossard, V.; Thomas, Z.; Legendre, P.; Anderson, N. J.; Leavitt, P.; Gell, P.

    2015-12-01

    The observation that managed ecosystems often fail to respond smoothly to changing external pressures has shed some light on their complex non-linear dynamics. The concept of critical transitions (i.e., ecosystem regime shifts), thresholds and alternative stable states has since spread to the ecological and environmental management literature. Most recently, however, reviews have raised some skepticism about whether these catastrophic transitions are the exceptions rather than the rule. Overall, a better understanding of the occurrence and processes of such critical transitions requires more empirical testing and evidence on the mechanistic links between pressures and consequent ecological change. Many of the changes observed, or modeled, by ecologists extend beyond the monitoring record. Palaeo-ecological records thus represent a unique opportunity to extend our temporal perspective to the relevancy of critical transitions. Yet, paleo-ecological records have their own biases and shortcomings, such as sediment focusing, irregular temporal integration and often studied in a semi-quantitative way. As such, palaeo-ecological time series are not strictly analogous to instrumental datasets. In this work, we aimed to test, using both modeled and actual records, how different properties that are common in palaeo-ecological records affect our ability to detect past non-linear dynamics, such as early-warning signals of catastrophic shifts.

  19. Catastrophizing and pain-related fear predict failure to maintain treatment gains following participation in a pain rehabilitation program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Moore

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. The present study explored whether pain-related psychosocial risk factors played a role in determining whether treatment gains were maintained following participation in a rehabilitation intervention for musculoskeletal injury. The study sample consisted of 310 individuals (163 women, 147 men with work-related musculoskeletal conditions who were enrolled in a physical rehabilitation program. Measures of pain severity, pain catastrophizing and pain-related fear were completed at the time of admission and at the time of discharge. Pain severity was assessed again at 1-year postdischarge. Participants were classified as “recovered” if they showed a decrease in pain of at least 2 points and rated their pain at discharge as less than 4/10. Recovered participants were considered to have failed to maintain treatment gains if their pain ratings increased by at least 2 points from discharge assessment to 1-year follow-up, and they rated their pain as 4/10 or greater at 1-year follow-up. The results of a logistic regression revealed that participants with high posttreatment scores on measures of catastrophizing and fear of pain were at increased risk of failing to maintain treatment gains. The findings suggest that unless end-of-treatment scores on catastrophizing and fear of pain fall below the risk range, treatment-related reductions in pain severity may not be maintained in the long term. The clinical and theoretical implications of the findings are discussed.

  20. Early dental implant failure in patient associated with oral bisphosphonates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ridhimaa Gupta

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Oral bisphosphonates are routinely prescribed to post menopausal women. These have shown to increase the risk of osteonecrosis. However, this action may be augmented by local factors. A case report is presented showing an early implant failure in a patient taking oral bisphosphonates. Two implants were placed in left maxillary incisor area. Central incisor was associated with a previous endodontic failure and extraction. Lateral incisor was avulsed 3 years back. After 4 weeks of an implant placement, necrotic bone was evident along with the failing implant in central incisor area. This case report emphasizes on the incidence and an increased risk of implant failure in patients taking oral bisphosphonates.

  1. Neurogenesis requires TopBP1 to prevent catastrophic replicative DNA damage in early progenitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Youngsoo; Katyal, Sachin; Downing, Susanna M.; Zhao, Jingfeng; Russell, Helen R.; McKinnon, Peter J.

    2012-01-01

    The rapid proliferation of progenitors during neurogenesis requires a stringent genomic maintenance program to ensure transmission of genetic fidelity. However the essential factors that govern neural progenitor genome integrity are unknown. Here we report that conditional inactivation of mouse TopBP1, a protein linked to DNA replication, and a key activator of the DNA damage response kinase ATR (ataxia telangiectasia and rad3 related) is critical for maintenance of early-born neural progenitors. During cortical development TopBP1 prevented replication-associated DNA damage in Emx1-progenitors which otherwise resulted in profound tissue ablation. Importantly, disrupted neurogenesis in TopBP1-depleted tissues was substantially rescued by p53- but not ATM-inactivation. Our data establish that TopBP1 is essential for preventing replication-associated DNA strand breaks, but is not essential per se for DNA replication. Thus, TopBP1 is crucial for maintaining genome integrity in the early progenitors that drive neurogenesis. PMID:22522401

  2. A catastrophic event in Lake Geneva region during the Early Bronze Age?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kremer, Katrina; Yrro, Blé; Marillier, François; Hilbe, Michael; Corboud, Pierre; Rachoud-Schneider, Anne-Marie; Girardclos, Stéphanie

    2013-04-01

    Similarly to steep oceanic continental margins, lake slopes can collapse, producing large sublacustrine landslides and tsunamis. Lake sediments are excellent natural archives of such mass movements and their study allows the reconstructions of these prehistoric events, such as the 563 AD large tsunami over Lake Geneva (Kremer et al, 2012). In Lake Geneva, more than 100 km of high-resolution seismic reflection profiles reveal the late Holocene sedimentation history. The seismic record shows a succession of five large lens-shaped seismic units (A to I), characterized by transparent/chaotic seismic facies with irregular lower boundaries, and interpreted as mass-movement deposits. These units are interbedded with parallel, continuous and strong amplitude reflections, interpreted as the 'background' lake sediments. The oldest dated mass movement (Unit D) covers a surface of 22 km2 in the deep basin, near the city of Lausanne. This deposit has an estimated minimum volume of 0.18 km3 and thus was very likely tsunamigenic (Kremer et al, 2012). A 12-m-long sediment core confirms the seismic interpretation of the mass movement unit and shows that the uppermost 3 m of Unit D are characterized by deformed hemipelagic sediments topped by a 5 cm thick turbidite. This deposit can be classified as a slump whose scar can be interpreted in the seismic data and visualized by multibeam bathymetry. This slump of Lausanne was likely triggered by an earthquake but a spontaneous slope collapse cannot be excluded (Girardclos et al, 2007). Radiocarbon dating of plant macro-remains reveals that the unit D happened during Early Bronze Age. Three other mass wasting deposits occurred during the same time period and may have been triggered during the same event, either by a single earthquake or by a tsunami generated by the slump of Lausanne. Although the exact trigger mechanism of the all these mass-wasting deposits remains unknown, a tsunami likely generated by this event may have affected the

  3. Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, H. A.

    1981-01-01

    A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

  4. Does Early Reading Failure Decrease Children's Reading Motivation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Paul L.; Fuchs, Douglas; Compton, Donald L.; Cordray, David S.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

    2008-01-01

    The authors used a pretest-posttest control group design with random assignment to evaluate whether early reading failure decreases children's motivation to practice reading. First, they investigated whether 60 first-grade children would report substantially different levels of interest in reading as a function of their relative success or failure…

  5. [The abdominal catastrophe].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiler, Christian A

    2011-08-01

    Patients with an abdominal catastrophe are in urgent need of early, interdisciplinary medical help. The treatment plan should be based on medical priorities and clear leadership. First priority should be given to achieve optimal oxygenation of blood and stabilization of circulation during all treatment-phases. The sicker the patient, the less invasive the (surgical) treatment should to be, which means "damage control only". This short article describes 7 important, pragmatic rules that will help to increase the survival of a patient with an abdominal catastrophe. Preexisting morbidity and risk factors must be included in the overall risk-evaluation for every therapeutic intervention. The challenge in patients with an abdominal catastrophe is to carefully balance the therapeutic stress and the existing resistance of the individual patient. The best way to avoid abdominal disaster, however, is its prevention.

  6. Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

    1996-12-31

    The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

  7. EFFICACY OF SUBLINGUAL MISOPROSTOL IN TERMINATION OF EARLY PREGNANCY FAILURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nupur

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Nearly 20% of all confirmed pregnancies end in spontaneous abortion. Misoprostol’s use in early pregnancy failure is varied and dose and route are not well established. AIM: To study the efficacy of sublingual misoprostol in causing expulsion of products of conception in early pregnancy failure. METHODS: Women with an ultrasound diagnosis of early pregnancy failure, less than 12 weeks gestation were included in the study. Tablet Misoprostol 600 mcg was given six hourly sublingually for 3 doses. All observations were noted and analyzed. RESULTS: Mean gestational age was 7.946+1.2 weeks. Mean induction abortion interval was 18.241+1.2 hours. Women with gestational age six to eight weeks had least mean induction-abortion interval time of 17.38+2. Mean dose required was 1564mcg.Efficacy of protocol was 92.85% in achieving complete abortion. CONCLUSION: The regime had 92.85% efficacy, acceptability (90% and few side effects. Thus by using a lower dose and appropriate interval between two doses (six hours, the side effects were lessened with high efficacy

  8. Cosmic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, J. Craig

    2014-08-01

    Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

  9. [Recent recommendations in the management of early pregnancy failure].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stupak, Aleksandra; Kwaśniewska, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Spontaneous abortion refers to pregnancy loss up to the end of 22 weeks' (21(+7)) gestation. Currently, the terminology suggests early pregnancy loss or early pregnancy failure. Miscarriage occurs in 10-20% of pregnancies, and most of them take place up to 13 weeks'gestation. Management in the case of vaginal bleeding in women with a confirmed pregnancy requires a physical examination (with a speculum), and a biochemical and ultrasound diagnosis. Conservative, pharmacological or surgical management can be offered to patients with an incomplete miscarriage. The pharmacological method of proceeding in miscarriages is recommended by many scientific societies (ACOG, RCOG), and WHO, as well as in manuals for students and for obstetrician-gynecologists developed by leading experts in Poland. The procedure for pharmacological treatment with mizoprostol is: 1. Pregnancy under 9 weeks gestation: 800 mg vaginally, and if there is no effect after 4 h another 400 mg vaginally or orally. 2. Pregnancy over 9 weeks gestation: up to 4 x 400 mg every 3 hours. 3. In the absence of any effect after 36 hours from the start of the treatment, a surgical procedure is recommended. 4. The prevention of chlamydia infection in each patient: 1 g of metronidazole rectally and one dose of 1 g azithromycin, or 2 x 100 mg of doxycycline for 7 days. The legal aspects regarding the administrative proceedings after early pregnancy failure relate to the correct reporting of feat death on proper forms.

  10. Folding catastrophes due to viscosity in multiferroic domains: implications for room-temperature multiferroic switching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, J. F.

    2015-12-01

    Unusual domains with curved walls and failure to satisfy the Landau-Lifshitz-Kittel Law are modeled as folding catastrophes (saddle-node bifurcations). This description of ballistic motion in a viscous medium is based upon early work by Dawber et al 2003 Appl. Phys. Lett. 82 436. It suggests that ferroelectric films can exhibit folds or vortex patterns but not both.

  11. Volcanic Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, J. C.

    2003-12-01

    The big news from 20th century geophysics may not be plate tectonics but rather the surprise return of catastrophism, following its apparent 19th century defeat to uniformitarianism. Divine miracles and plagues had yielded to the logic of integrating observations of everyday change over time. Yet the brilliant interpretation of the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary iridium anomaly introduced an empirically based catastrophism. Undoubtedly, decades of contemplating our own nuclear self-destruction played a role in this. Concepts of nuclear winter, volcanic winter, and meteor impact winter are closely allied. And once the veil of threat of all-out nuclear exchange began to lift, we could begin to imagine slower routes to destruction as "global change". As a way to end our world, fire is a good one. Three-dimensional magma chambers do not have as severe a magnitude limitation as essentially two-dimensional faults. Thus, while we have experienced earthquakes that are as big as they get, we have not experienced volcanic eruptions nearly as great as those preserved in the geologic record. The range extends to events almost three orders of magnitude greater than any eruptions of the 20th century. Such a calamity now would at the very least bring society to a temporary halt globally, and cause death and destruction on a continental scale. At maximum, there is the possibility of hindering photosynthesis and threatening life more generally. It has even been speculated that the relative genetic homogeneity of humankind derives from an evolutionary "bottleneck" from near-extinction in a volcanic cataclysm. This is somewhat more palatable to contemplate than a return to a form of Original Sin, in which we arrived at homogeneity by a sort of "ethnic cleansing". Lacking a written record of truly great eruptions, our sense of human impact must necessarily be aided by archeological and anthropological investigations. For example, there is much to be learned about the influence of

  12. Catastrophic volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipman, Peter W.

    1988-01-01

    Since primitive times, catastrophes due to volcanic activity have been vivid in the mind of man, who knew that his activities in many parts of the world were threatened by lava flows, mudflows, and ash falls. Within the present century, increasingly complex interactions between volcanism and the environment, on scales not previously experienced historically, have been detected or suspected from geologic observations. These include enormous hot pyroclastic flows associated with collapse at source calderas and fed by eruption columns that reached the stratosphere, relations between huge flood basalt eruptions at hotspots and the rifting of continents, devastating laterally-directed volcanic blasts and pyroclastic surges, great volcanic-generated tsunamis, climate modification from volcanic release of ash and sulfur aerosols into the upper atmosphere, modification of ocean circulation by volcanic constructs and attendent climatic implications, global pulsations in intensity of volcanic activity, and perhaps triggering of some intense terrestrial volcanism by planetary impacts. Complex feedback between volcanic activity and additional seemingly unrelated terrestrial processes likely remains unrecognized. Only recently has it become possible to begin to evaluate the degree to which such large-scale volcanic processes may have been important in triggering or modulating the tempo of faunal extinctions and other evolutionary events. In this overview, such processes are examined from the viewpoint of a field volcanologist, rather than as a previous participant in controversies concerning the interrelations between extinctions, impacts, and volcanism.

  13. Early proximal junctional failure in patients with preoperative sagittal imbalance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Micah W; Annis, Prokopis; Lawrence, Brandon D; Daubs, Michael D; Brodke, Darrel S

    2013-10-01

    Study Type Retrospective review. Introduction Sagittal imbalance has been associated with lower health-related quality of life outcomes, and restoration of imbalance is associated with improved outcomes.123 The long constructs used in adult spinal deformity have potential consequences such as proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK). Clinically, the development of PJK may not be as important as failure of the construct or vertebrae at the proximal end. As PJK does not lead to worse clinical outcomes,45 we define the term early proximal junctional failure (EPJF) as fracture, implant failure, or myelopathy due to stenosis at the upper instrumental vertebra (UIV) or UIV + 1 within 6 months of surgery. Objective The purpose of this study is to report the incidence of EPJF in patients who are sagittally imbalanced preoperatively and to identify risk factors postoperatively that correlate with EPJF using commonly reported sagittal balance parameters. Methods We reviewed 197 patients with preoperative sagittal imbalance by at least one of the following: sagittal vertical axis more than 5 cm, global sagittal alignment more than 45 degrees, pelvic incidence-lumbar lordosis more than 10 degrees, or spine-sacral angle less than 120 degrees. Radiographic measurements also included proximal junctional angle, thoracic kyphosis, lumbar lordosis, pelvic parameters, and sagittal balance parameters/formulas, as well as UIV angle, UIV spinosacral angle, and UIV plumb line to assess as potential risk factors. EPJF incidence was calculated postoperatively for each of the accepted sagittal balance parameters/formulas. Results EPJF was observed in 49 of 197 patients (25%) with preoperative sagittal imbalance and was more common in fusions with UIV in the lower thoracic spine (TS) (35%) than in those with UIV in the upper TS (10%) or lumbar (25%) (p = 0.007). Of the 49 EPJF patients, 16 patients (33%) required revision surgery within the first year, for an overall early revision

  14. Early hemispherectomy in catastrophic epilepsy: a neuro-cognitive and epileptic long-term follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lettori, D; Battaglia, D; Sacco, A; Veredice, C; Chieffo, D; Massimi, L; Tartaglione, T; Chiricozzi, F; Staccioli, S; Mittica, A; Di Rocco, C; Guzzetta, F

    2008-01-01

    The authors report their experience about a neuro-cognitive and epileptic long-term follow-up of children with catastrophic epilepsy treated with hemispherectomy in the first 5 years of life. Nineteen children with resistant epilepsy that significantly interfered with their neuro-cognitive development underwent hemispherectomy within 5 years of life (mean: 2 years, 3 months; range: 5 months to 5 years). All patients were assessed before surgery and after, at least at the end of the follow-up (mean: 6 years and 6 months; range: 2-11 years and 2 months) with a full clinical examination including motor ability and functional status evaluation as well as behaviour observation, neuroimaging and an ictal/interictal prolonged scalp video-EEG. A seizure-free outcome was obtained in 73.7% of patients. Gross motility generally improved and cognitive competence did not worsen, with an evident progress in two cases. Consistently with previous reports, evolution was worse in cortical dysplasia than in progressive or acquired vascular cerebropathies. The excellent epileptic outcome and the lack of developmental deterioration in comparison with other more aged series seem to suggest a possible better evolution in earlier surgery treatment. To confirm this suggestion, however, further experience with larger series is needed.

  15. The public health challenge of early growth failure in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, M F; Martorell, R

    2013-05-01

    Recent recognition of the early onset and high prevalence of wasting (30%) and stunting (20%) among infants 0-5 months in India draws attention to the need to understand the causes and develop prevention strategies. Such growth failure has dire consequences in the short (increased mortality) and long-term (loss of human capital and increased risk of chronic diseases). Food interventions before 6 months will increase morbidity/mortality through contamination in settings of poor sanitation and hygiene. Waiting to improve nutrition only after the initiation of complementary feeding at 6 months is a missed opportunity and may permanently alter life trajectory and potential. This underscores the importance of maternal nutrition. Iron and folic acid and protein energy supplementation during pregnancy are interventions that can improve maternal nutrition and birth outcomes. Maternal supplementation during lactation should be considered as a means to improve maternal and child outcomes, although the evidence needs strengthening. Support and counseling are also required to improve maternal diets and promote exclusive breastfeeding. Programs focused on improving maternal nutrition across the continuum of preconception, pregnancy and lactation are likely to have the greatest impact as mothers are central gatekeepers to the health and future of their children.

  16. Trunnion Corrosion and Early Failure in Monolithic Metal-on-Polyethylene TMZF Femoral Components: A Case Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Walker

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We describe four patients who were treated with primary total hip arthroplasty (THA at two tertiary academic Australian teaching hospitals that experienced premature failure of head-neck trunnions through dissociation of the head-neck taper junction. This retrospective case series have similar clinical presentations and macroscopic pathology with severe head-neck taper junction loss of material, corrosion and early catastrophic failure. It is proposed that the accelerated wear is related to use of varus offset neck in a proprietary beta titanium alloy (Ti-12Mo-6Zr-2Fe  or TMZFÒ Stryker Osteonics, Mahwah NJ, USA TMZF femoral stem, longer head-neck combination in a relatively active, older, male patient population. In this limited case series presentation was on average 80 months (range 53-92 following index procedure. In three of the four patients, a prodromal period of groin or buttock pain was reported for between 1 week and 2 months prior to acute presentation. Significant metallosis and local tissue damage including gluteal muscle insufficiency was evident. Each stem revised was well fixed. An extended trochanteric osteotomy was required in two of the four cases for stem extraction. We recommend caution and further evaluation on the relationship between TMZF metal alloy and its longevity in higher demand patients with high neck offset, varus stem geometry and large CoCr bearing heads.

  17. Misoprostol versus curettage in women with early pregnancy failure after initial expectant management : a randomized trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graziosi, GCM; Mol, BWJ; Reuwer, PJH; Drogtrop, A; Bruinse, HW

    2004-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effectiveness of misoprostol treatment in women with early pregnancy failure who have been managed expectantly. We therefore performed a randomized trial on this subject. METHODS: Women with early pregnancy failure, who had been managed expectantly for at least

  18. Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinge LIU

    Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

  19. Core Competencies and the Prevention of School Failure and Early School Leaving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Catherine P.; O'Brennan, Lindsey M.; McNeely, Clea A.

    2008-01-01

    There is an increasing awareness that school failure and early school leaving are processes, rather than discrete events, that often co-occur and can have lasting negative effects on children's development. Most of the literature has focused on risk factors for failure and dropout rather than on the promotion of competencies that can increase…

  20. Core Competencies and the Prevention of School Failure and Early School Leaving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Catherine P.; O'Brennan, Lindsey M.; McNeely, Clea A.

    2008-01-01

    There is an increasing awareness that school failure and early school leaving are processes, rather than discrete events, that often co-occur and can have lasting negative effects on children's development. Most of the literature has focused on risk factors for failure and dropout rather than on the promotion of competencies that can increase…

  1. Failure to Respond to Food Resource Decline Has Catastrophic Consequences for Koalas in a High-Density Population in Southern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desley A Whisson

    Full Text Available Understanding the ability of koalas to respond to changes in their environment is critical for conservation of the species and their habitat. We monitored the behavioural response of koalas to declining food resources in manna gum (Eucalyptus viminalis woodland at Cape Otway, Victoria, Australia, from September 2011 to November 2013. Over this period, koala population density increased from 10.1 to 18.4 koalas.ha-1. As a result of the high browsing pressure of this population, manna gum canopy condition declined with 71.4% manna gum being completely or highly defoliated in September 2013. Despite declining food resources, radio collared koalas (N = 30 exhibited high fidelity to small ranges (0.4-1.2 ha. When trees became severely defoliated in September 2013, koalas moved relatively short distances from their former ranges (mean predicted change in range centroid = 144 m and remained in areas of 0.9 to 1.0 ha. This was despite the high connectivity of most manna gum woodland, and close proximity of the study site (< 3 km to the contiguous mixed forest of the Great Otway National Park. Limited movement had catastrophic consequences for koalas with 71% (15/21 of radio collared koalas dying from starvation or being euthanased due to their poor condition between September and November 2013.

  2. UAV Swarm Behavior Modeling for Early Exposure of Failure Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    is present. If that is not feasible, the UAV should immediately reduce altitude and land. The landing method is a mission driven behavior that does...new operation to allow the nearest UAV to relieve the bingo fueled UAV. Once the new UAV arrives, the UAV experiencing the bingo fuel failure mode

  3. [Diabetes mellitus and early failures in oral implantology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niang, P; Ba, A; Dia, Tine S; Tamba, B; Gassama, Barry B C; Diallo, B

    2011-09-01

    It has become increasingly common for diabetic patients to be considered as candidates for dental implants. However even though success rates of implant therapy in diabetic are high, this does not preclude failures. Failure to osseointegrate in the initial healing phase results in a fibrous tissue encapsulation of the implant and clinical mobility, leading ultimately to the failure of the implant. This review presents the current knowledge regarding the effect of diabetes mellitus on the osseointegration of implants including pathophysiologic aspects as well as their potential implications on bone metabolism and osseointegration, implant success rate at the second-phase surgery and guidelines for pre and post-operative management. In experimental models of diabetes mellitus, a reduced level of bone-implant contact has been shown, and this can be reversed by means of treatment with insulin. Compared with the general population, a higher failure rate is seen in diabetic patients. Most of these occur at the second-phase surgery, seemingly pointing to the microvascular complications of this condition as a possible causal factor. It is necessary to take certain special considerations into account for the placement of implants in diabetic patient. A good control of plasma glycemia, together with other measures, has been shown to improve the percentages of implant survival in these patients.

  4. Relationship between obesity and early failure of total knee prostheses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    De Palma Rossana

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Obesity is a risk factor for knee arthritis. Total knee arthroplasty is the definitive surgical treatment of this disease. Therefore, a high percentage of subjects treated are overweight. Since 2000 in the Emilia-Romagna Region the Register of Orthopedic Prosthetic Implantology, RIPO, has recorded data of all the primary and revision operations performed on the knee; height and weight of patients at the time of surgery have also been recorded. Methods To understand how overweight and obesity affect the outcome of knee arthroplasty, a population of subjects treated with cemented total knee arthroplasty between 2000 and 2005 was studied. 9735 knee prostheses were implanted in 8892 patients; 18.9% of the patients were normal weight, 48.2% were overweight (25 40. Mean and range of follow-up were respectively 3.1 and 1.5–6 yrs. Implant failure was defined as the exchange of at least one component for whatever reason. Results In normal weight patients there were 36 failures out of 1840 implants (1.96%, in overweight patients there were 87 out of 4692 (1.85%, in obese 59 out of 3031 (1.94%, and in morbidly obese there were 4 out of 172 (2.3%. The mean time to failure for each class was 1.57, 1.48, 1.60, 1.77 yrs. Cox regression analyses showed that the risk of implant failure was not influenced by BMI, absolute body weight, or sex. Conversely, an increased failure risk was observed in mobile meniscus prostheses in comparison with those with a fixed meniscus (Rate Ratio 1.88; an increased failure risk was also related to age (Rate Ratio 1.05 per year. These results were also confirmed when considering septic loosening as the end-point. There were no differences in the rate of perioperative complications and death in the 4 classes of BMI. Conclusion In conclusion, cemented knee prostheses, implanted in patients with arthritis do not have significantly different rates of survival or perioperative complications in obese subjects

  5. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    for the girl talk is centred on catastrophes or Nakbas, as they are referred to in Arabic. Not only al-Nakba of 1948 when the Palestinians were displaced from their homeland, but also the many recurring wars and the individual catastrophes that involve dead family members, rapes, loss of children and abusive...

  6. Early Proximal Junctional Failure in Patients with Preoperative Sagittal Imbalance

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    Study Type Retrospective review. Introduction Sagittal imbalance has been associated with lower health-related quality of life outcomes, and restoration of imbalance is associated with improved outcomes.1 2 3 The long constructs used in adult spinal deformity have potential consequences such as proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK). Clinically, the development of PJK may not be as important as failure of the construct or vertebrae at the proximal end. As PJK does not lead to worse clinical outco...

  7. Habitability and cosmic catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Hanslmeier, Arnold; McKay, Christopher P

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic cosmic events such as asteroid impacts appear in the range of some 100 million years and have drastically affected evolution. The author discusses whether and how such events could have occurred in recently found extrasolar planetary systems.

  8. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rawhya R. El-Shereef

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

  9. Observations on early school failure in Zulu children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frets-Van Buuren, J J; Letuma, E; Daynes, G

    1990-02-03

    The outcome of the screening of 2,190 children who had to repeat the school entry grades (Substandard A) in 25 junior primary schools in two KwaZulu townships is reported and the implications are discussed. The high number of repeaters did not appear to be due to an excess of mentally retarded children, the percentage being similar to that which could be expected in such a community world-wide. Difficulty in intelligence testing was experienced, but we describe how this was overcome by testing speed of learning. Visual defects, hearing defects and having no food before school accounted for the failure of many repeaters. Lack of preschool teaching by parents and schools and very strict discipline necessitated by large classes and a wide range in ages, which both led to anxiety on the part of the pupils, and sending children to school at too young an age were regarded as additional factors. Simple interventions were suggested to the school teachers; more than 1,000 pupils were followed up, with encouraging results.

  10. Intense adrenal enhancement in patients with acute pancreatitis and early organ failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollen, T L; van Santvoort, H C; Besselink, M G H; van Ramshorst, B; van Es, H W; Gooszen, H G

    2007-10-01

    Intense adrenal enhancement has previously been reported in patients with hypovolemic and septic shock. The purpose of this study was to assess whether this computed tomography (CT) finding is also observed in patients presenting with severe acute pancreatitis and early organ failure. A retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected database was performed. Out of 38 consecutive patients with predicted severe acute pancreatitis, 3 patients showed intense bilateral adrenal enhancement on early CT. All patients had early multiple organ failure and subsequently died. In two cases, pathologic correlation was obtained. Intense adrenal enhancement may be a new prognostic indicator in patients with acute pancreatitis, particularly when organ failure is present at the time of CT examination. Further studies are necessary to confirm this observation.

  11. Environmental events and catastrophes from the end of early pleistocene to the early stage of middle pleistocene%早更新世末中更新世早期的环境事件与灾变

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周厚云

    2000-01-01

    In this paper,the author describes several kinds of environmental events(including abnormal changes of climate,tectonic activation,erosion and deposition events,astronomical events,migrations of creature and some other events such as the reversal of paleo-magnetic polar)from the end of Early Pleistocene to the early stage of Middle Pleistocene,approximately 1.1-0.7MaB.P..Abnormal changes of climate and tectonic activation are the essential for some other environmental events,such as erosion,deposition events and migrations of creature,and control these events.There are two clusters of impact events which are supposed to happen at about 1.1MaB.P. and 0.7MaB.P. respectively and the paleo-magnetic polar reverse three times during the time of 1.1~0.7MaB.P.. Based on the characteristics of abnormal changes of climate and tectonic activation,the author combines these events together and regards the whole period from 1.1 to 0.7MaB.P. as a continuous procession full of abnormal environmental events.Some environmental events are the causes of catastrophes,and some are the results.There are close relationships between environmental events and natural catastrophes.%综述了发生在早更新世末到中更新世早期,即大致从1.1~0.7MaBP的各种环境事件,包括气候异常变化、构造活化、侵蚀沉积事件、天文事件、生物迁徙以及古地磁的异常等.其中气候异常和构造活化是基本的环境事件,对其它事件有控制作用.根据气候异常和构造活化的特征,可以认为,从1.1MaBP到0.7MaBP是一个连续的环境异常过程,这一时期各类环境事件集中发生,环境事件或为灾变的原因,或为灾变的结果,与自然界的灾变之间存在密切的关系.

  12. Dinitrogen oxide detection for process failure early warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, J E; Stuetz, R M; Morton, S; Stephenson, T

    2002-01-01

    A number of experiments were conducted in order to establish whether the concentration of N2O in the off-gas from an activated sludge pilot plant could be used as a indicator for monitoring the nitrification process and as an early indication of ammonia appearing in the plant effluent. A strong correlation was found between ammonia shock loads and the concentration of N20 in the off-gas from the aeration tank for ammonia shock loads and dissolved oxygen depletion. When subjecting the experimental setup to doses of a nitrification inhibitor (allylthiourea) a similar pattern was seen with a correlation between nitrite build up in the aeration tank and concentration increase of N2O in the off-gas from the aeration tank. The results from this work suggest the concentration and the changes in the concentration of N2O in the exhaust gas from a nitrifying process may be a useful parameter for monitoring nitrifying activated sludge processes.

  13. Early predictors of renal dysfunction in patients with chronic heart failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umida Kamilova

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Study was aimed at an early detection of subclinical disorders in renal function in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF. Fifty-two patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD with post-infarction cardiosclerosis were examined. All the patients were underwent complex clinical examination, a level of serum creatinine, residual nitrogen and urine enzymes. Determination of urine enzymes level in CHF patients may be considered as diagnostic approach for an early diagnosis of renal dysfunction.

  14. Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitri Titeca-Beauport

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

  15. Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titeca-Beauport, Dimitri; Salle, Valery; Kontar, Loay; Maizel, Julien; Choukroun, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient's general condition. Design. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient's condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient's general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

  16. Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salle, Valery; Kontar, Loay; Maizel, Julien

    2016-01-01

    Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient's general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient's condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient's general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange. PMID:27833765

  17. [Early detection, prevention and management of renal failure in liver transplantation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castells, Lluís; Baliellas, Carme; Bilbao, Itxarone; Cantarell, Carme; Cruzado, Josep Maria; Esforzado, Núria; García-Valdecasas, Juan Carlos; Lladó, Laura; Rimola, Antoni; Serón, Daniel; Oppenheimer, Federico

    2014-10-01

    Renal failure is a frequent complication in liver transplant recipients and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. A variety of risk factors for the development of renal failure in the pre- and post-transplantation periods have been described, as well as at the time of surgery. To reduce the negative impact of renal failure in this population, an active approach is required for the identification of those patients with risk factors, the implementation of preventive strategies, and the early detection of progressive deterioration of renal function. Based on published evidence and on clinical experience, this document presents a series of recommendations on monitoring RF in LT recipients, as well as on the prevention and management of acute and chronic renal failure after LT and referral of these patients to the nephrologist. In addition, this document also provides an update of the various immunosuppressive regimens tested in this population for the prevention and control of post-transplantation deterioration of renal function.

  18. Difficult to predict early failure after major lower-extremity amputations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Morten Tange; Holm, Gitte; Gebuhr, Peter

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The successful outcome of a major amputation depends on several factors, including stump wound healing. The purpose of this study was to examine the criteria upon which the index amputation was based and to identify factors associated with early amputation failure after major non...

  19. Difficult to predict early failure after major lower-extremity amputations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Morten Tange; Holm, Gitte; Gebuhr, Peter

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The successful outcome of a major amputation depends on several factors, including stump wound healing. The purpose of this study was to examine the criteria upon which the index amputation was based and to identify factors associated with early amputation failure after major non-tr...

  20. The Ongoing Catastrophe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kublitz, Anja

    2015-01-01

    were expelled from their homeland. However, according to my interlocutors, al-Nakba never stopped, but continues in the present. To understand this phenomenon, I suggest that it is conducive to think of al-Nakba as a reverse national myth, a figure of un-becoming, which is replicated in the present. I...... argue that, unlike the spectacular catastrophes in Palestine and later in Lebanon, life in the Danish camps is characterized by minor mundane catastrophes that are each so small that they barely register or elicit a moral response, but nevertheless erode the lives of my interlocutors....

  1. Risk factors for and impact of respiratory failure on mortality in the early phase of acute pancreatitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dombernowsky, Tilde; Kristensen, Marlene Østermark; Rysgaard, Sisse

    2016-01-01

    : Retrospective cohort study including 359 patients admitted with acute pancreatitis. Information was gathered from electronic patient records. We defined respiratory failure based on the modified Marshall scoring system in the revised Atlanta criteria. Predictors of respiratory failure were evaluated......, or pneumonia may develop respiratory failure, suggests that acute lung injury, possibly associated with systemic inflammation, may be important.......BACKGROUND: The incidence of respiratory failure and other respiratory complications in the early phase of acute pancreatitis (AP) is not well investigated. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the incidence and risk factors of respiratory failure, and its impact on mortality in the early phase AP. METHODS...

  2. Catastrophic Medical Expenditure Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Flores (Gabriela); O.A. O'Donnell (Owen)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractMedical expenditure risk can pose a major threat to living standards. We derive decomposable measures of catastrophic medical expenditure risk from reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. We propose a quantile regression based method of estimating risk exposure from cross-section

  3. Catastrophic Medical Expenditure Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Flores (Gabriela); O.A. O'Donnell (Owen)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractMedical expenditure risk can pose a major threat to living standards. We derive decomposable measures of catastrophic medical expenditure risk from reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. We propose a quantile regression based method of estimating risk exposure from cross-section

  4. Core competencies and the prevention of school failure and early school leaving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Catherine P; O'Brennan, Lindsey M; McNeely, Clea A

    2008-01-01

    There is an increasing awareness that school failure and early school leaving are processes, rather than discrete events, that often co-occur and can have lasting negative effects on children's development. Most of the literature has focused on risk factors for failure and dropout rather than on the promotion of competencies that can increase youths' likelihood of successfully completing high school. This chapter applies the core competencies framework to the promotion of youths' success within the school environment. We conclude with a brief review of evidence-based prevention strategies that address the five competencies and identify avenues for future research.

  5. Catastrophic failure of polymer melts during extension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Henrik K.

    2013-01-01

    Numerical flow modeling has been applied to study the break of monodisperse polymer melts during extension. These continuum mechanical based computations are within the ideas of the microstructural ’interchain pressure’ theory. Calculated breaks, a result of small initial sample imperfections, ag...

  6. A case of seronegative catastrophic antiphospholipid antibody syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shreders, Amanda; Bar, Michael

    2013-02-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid antibody syndrome (CAPS) is a rare syndrome associated with multiorgan failure that carries a high mortality rate. It has been defined previously by the presence of autoantibodies in a patient with acute multiorgan failure as a result of small vessel occlusion by multiple thrombi. We report a patient who meets all criteria of CAPS except for persistent seronegativity.

  7. 基于黏滑失稳与突变理论的煤与瓦斯突出预警模型%Early-warning model of coal and gas outburst based on the stick-slip and catastrophe theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭德勇; 李佳乃; 王彦凯

    2013-01-01

    在矿井瓦斯地质研究基础上,根据煤与瓦斯突出黏滑机理和突变理论,建立了煤与瓦斯突出黏滑失稳-突变理论预警模型。以瓦斯因素和地质因素为煤与瓦斯突出预警的控制变量,将其归类分化为相应的预警指标,提出了突出危险等级划分指标的界限,利用模糊数学推导出突变模糊隶属度函数,选择对应突变模型计算出突出警情的突变级数。以潞安环能股份有限公司余吾煤业为例对煤与瓦斯突出黏滑失稳-突变预警模型的可行性进行了验证。%According to gas-geological research, an early-warning model of coal and gas outburst was built based on the stick-slip and catastrophe theory. In the model, gas factors and geological factors were considered as control variables of coal and gas outburst early-warning and were classified to the corresponding early warning indexes, then the coal and gas outburst grades of danger were determined and their warning index limits were divided. Fuzzy mathematics was used to deduce the mutation fuzzy membership function, and the catastrophe series, which can reflect the outburst, was worked out by means of choosing the corresponding mutation model. An example of Yuwu Coal Mine of Lu’an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. verified the feasibility of this early-warning model.

  8. Catastrophic antiphospholipid antibody syndrome in a child with thrombotic microangiopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, N; Bhadauria, D; Agarwal, N; Gupta, A; Gupta, P; Jain, M; Lal, H

    2012-07-01

    Thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia (TMHA) is not uncommon in clinical nephrology practice while antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is uncommon. Although less than 1% of patients with APS develop catastrophic APS (CAPS), its potential lethal outcome because of thrombosis in multiple organs and subsequent multiorgan failure emphasizes its importance in nephrology practice. Here is a case of catastrophic APS in a 7-year-old girl, who presented to us with TMHA associated with antiphospholipid antibodies and subsequently died because of CAPS.

  9. A mechanism for the early detection and management of physical asset management strategy execution failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stimie, Johann

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present a mechanism that can assist physical asset management (PAM practitioners and academics with the early detection and management of PAM strategy execution failure. In the pursuit of this objective, case studies were applied to develop the theory related to this topic the methodologies involved in the development of theory through case studies was were applied. The paper commences with a brief literature review of the contemporary literature on general business strategy, strategy execution, and, more specifically, PAM strategy execution failure (PAMSEF. The physical asset management strategy execution enforcement mechanism (PAMSEEM is presented next. Validation of each one of the components of the PAMSEEM takes place within the context of an organisation that is highly dependent on physical assets (PA dependent organization. The conclusion reached is that the PAMSEEM, can indeed assist organisations with the early detection and management of PAMSEF.

  10. Left ventricular hypertrophy in ascending aortic stenosis mice: anoikis and the progression to early failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, B.; Price, R. L.; Goldsmith, E. C.; Borg, T. K.; Yan, X.; Douglas, P. S.; Weinberg, E. O.; Bartunek, J.; Thielen, T.; Didenko, V. V.; Lorell, B. H.; Schneider, M. (Principal Investigator)

    2000-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To determine potential mechanisms of the transition from hypertrophy to very early failure, we examined apoptosis in a model of ascending aortic stenosis (AS) in male FVB/n mice. METHODS AND RESULTS: Compared with age-matched controls, 4-week and 7-week AS animals (n=12 to 16 per group) had increased ratios of left ventricular weight to body weight (4.7+/-0.7 versus 3.1+/-0.2 and 5. 7+/-0.4 versus 2.7+/-0.1 mg/g, respectively, Phypertrophy to early failure in mice with chronic biomechanical stress and support the hypothesis that the disruption of normal myocyte anchorage to adjacent extracellular matrix and cells, a process called anoikis, may signal apoptosis.

  11. Difficult to predict early failure after major lower-extremity amputations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Morten Tange; Holm, Gitte; Gebuhr, Peter

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: The successful outcome of a major amputation depends on several factors, including stump wound healing. The purpose of this study was to examine the criteria upon which the index amputation was based and to identify factors associated with early amputation failure after major non......-traumatic lower-extremity amputation. METHODS: We studied a consecutive one-year series of 36 men and 34 women with a median (25-75% quartiles) age of 72 (63-83) years who were treated in an acute orthopaedic ward; 44 below-knee and 26 above-knee amputees of whom 47 had an American Society of Anesthesiologists...... rating above two. Patient characteristics and other factors potentially influencing early amputation failure within 30 days were evaluated. RESULTS: Eleven patients died (16%) and 11 (16%) had a re-amputation at a higher level, whereas four (6%) had a major revision at the same level within 30 days...

  12. Donor age and early graft failure after lung transplantation: a cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Matthew R; Peterson, Eric R; Easthausen, Imaani; Quintanilla, Isaac; Colago, Eric; Sonett, Joshua R.; D’Ovidio, Frank; Costa, Joseph; Diamond, Joshua M; Christie, Jason D; Arcasoy, Selim M; Lederer, David J

    2014-01-01

    Lungs from older adult organ donors are often unused because of concerns for increased mortality. We examined associations between donor age and transplant outcomes among 8,860 adult lung transplant recipients using Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network and Lung Transplant Outcomes Group data. We used stratified Cox proportional hazard models and generalized linear mixed models to examine associations between donor age and both 1-year graft failure and primary graft dysfunction. The rate of 1-year graft failure was similar among recipients of lungs from donors age 18–64 years, but severely ill recipients (LAS > 47.7 or use of mechanical ventilation) of lungs from donors age 56–64 years had increased rates of 1-year graft failure (p-values for interaction = 0.04 and 0.02, respectively). Recipients of lungs from donors <18 and ≥65 years had increased rates of 1-year graft failure (adjusted hazard ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.01–1.50 and adjusted hazard ratio 2.15, 95% CI 1.47–3.15, respectively). Donor age was not associated with the risk of primary graft dysfunction. In summary, the use of lungs from donors age 56–64 years may be safe for adult candidates without a high LAS, and the use of lungs from pediatric donors is associated with a small increase in early graft failure. PMID:24034167

  13. Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-09-15

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

  14. Early surgical outcomes of coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with dialysis-dependent renal failure: Effects of early hemodialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chih-Yuan Lin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Coronary artery disease occurs frequently and is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic renal failure. Because the number of patients requiring dialysis for end-stage renal disease (ESRD has increased, the number of patients in this population who require coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG has increased. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of early hemodialysis (HD on the early surgical outcomes of ESRD patients undergoing CABG. Materials and Methods: Fifty-nine dialysis-dependent patients who underwent isolated CABG with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB were enrolled in this study. These patients were divided into two groups based on the timing of the first postoperation HD session. In the early HD group, HD was performed within 6 h postoperation; in the scheduled HD group, HD was performed >6 h postoperation. The preoperative characteristics, operative variables, and postoperative outcomes were retrospectively analyzed. Results: The time to first HD after CABG was 2.43 ± 1.58 h in the early HD group and 20.68 ± 6.98 h in the scheduled HD group (P < 0.001. There were no significant differences in the operative variables, namely duration of operation, CPB time, and aortic cross-clamp time, between the two groups. The incidence of postoperative pneumonia was higher in the scheduled HD group (31.8% than in the early HD group (2.7%. There was a trend of decreased incidence of postoperative pneumonia in the early HD group with marginal significance from the univariate analysis. The intensive care unit and hospital stay duration of both groups were similar. Nine patients died in the hospital, yielding an overall 30-day mortality of 8.47%. Conclusion: In dialysis-dependent patients who underwent CABG, the short-term outcomes and surgical mortality were acceptable. Dialysis-dependent renal failure should not be considered a contraindication for CABG. Early HD in the postoperative period demonstrated

  15. Early warning indicators for monitoring the process failure of anaerobic digestion system of food waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lei; He, Qingming; Wei, Yunmei; He, Qin; Peng, Xuya

    2014-11-01

    To determine reliable state parameters which could be used as early warning indicators of process failure due to the acidification of anaerobic digestion of food waste, three mesophilic anaerobic digesters of food waste with different operation conditions were investigated. Such parameters as gas production, methane content, pH, concentrations of volatile fatty acid (VFA), alkalinity and their combined indicators were evaluated. Results revealed that operation conditions significantly affect the responses of parameters and thus the optimal early warning indicators of each reactor differ from each other. None of the single indicators was universally valid for all the systems. The universally valid indicators should combine several parameters to supply complementary information. A combination of total VFA, the ratio of VFA to total alkalinity (VFA/TA) and the ratio of bicarbonate alkalinity to total alkalinity (BA/TA) can reflect the metabolism of the digesting system and realize rapid and effective early warning.

  16. Early onset of puberty and early ovarian failure in CYP7B1 knockout mice

    OpenAIRE

    Omoto, Yoko; Lathe, Richard; Warner, Margaret; Gustafsson, Jan-Åke

    2005-01-01

    CYP7B1 is the enzyme responsible for hydroxylation and termination of the estrogenic actions of the androgen metabolite, 5α-androstane-3β, 17β-diol (3βAdiol). 3βAdiol is estrogenic in ERα or ERβ positive cells only if they do not express CYP7B1. In this study we show that female CYP7B1–/– mice experience early onset of growth of the uterus and mammary glands and commence estrus cycles 2 days earlier than their wild-type littermates. Adult mammary glands and uteri appear to be under continuous...

  17. Precursory landforms and geologic structures of catastrophic landslides induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chigira, M.; Matsushi, Y.; Tsou, C.

    2013-12-01

    Our experience of catastrophic landslides induced by rainstorms and earthquakes in recent years suggests that many of them are preceded by deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation continues slowly and continually and some of them transform into catastrophic failures, which cause devastating damage in wide areas. Some other types, however, do not change into catastrophic failure. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation that preceded catastrophic failures induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan, had been surveyed with airborne laser scanner beforehand, of which high-resolution DEMs gave us an important clue to identify which type of topographic features of gravitational slope deformation is susceptible to catastrophic failure. We found that 26 of 39 deep-seated catastrophic landslides had small scarps along the heads of future landslides. These scarps were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 1% to 23%. 38% of the landslides with small scarps had scarp ratios less than 4%, and a half less than 8%. This fact suggests that the gravitational slope deformation preceded catastrophic failure was relatively small and may suggest that those slopes were under critical conditions just before catastrophic failure. The above scarp ratios may be characteristic to accretional complex with undulating, anastomosing thrust faults, which were major sliding surfaces of the typhoon-induced landslides. Eleven of the remaining 13 landslides occurred in landslide scars of previous landslides or occurred as an extension of landslide scars at the lower parts of

  18. CATASTROPHIC EVENTS MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciumas Cristina

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the emergence and evolution of catastrophe models (cat models. Starting with the present context of extreme weather events and features of catastrophic risk (cat risk we’ll make a chronological illustration from a theoretical point of view of the main steps taken for building such models. In this way the importance of interdisciplinary can be observed. The first cat model considered contains three modules. For each of these indentified modules: hazard, vulnerability and financial losses a detailed overview and also an exemplification of a potential case of an earthquake that measures more than 7 on Richter scale occurring nowadays in Bucharest will be provided. The key areas exposed to earthquake in Romania will be identified. Then, based on past catastrophe data and taking into account present conditions of housing stock, insurance coverage and the population of Bucharest the impact will be quantified by determining potential losses. In order to accomplish this work we consider a scenario with data representing average values for: dwelling’s surface, location, finishing works. On each step we’ll make a reference to the earthquake on March 4 1977 to see what would happen today if a similar event occurred. The value of Bucharest housing stock will be determined taking firstly the market value, then the replacement value and ultimately the real value to quantify potential damages. Through this approach we can find the insurance coverage of potential losses and also the uncovered gap. A solution that may be taken into account by public authorities, for example by Bucharest City Hall will be offered: in case such an event occurs the impossibility of paying compensations to insured people, rebuilding infrastructure and public buildings and helping the suffering persons should be avoided. An actively public-private partnership should be created between government authorities, the Natural Disaster Insurance Pool, private

  19. Prognostic significance of early lactate clearance rate for severe acute respiratory failure patients on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    臧芝栋

    2014-01-01

    Objective To investigate the prognostic significanceof early lactate clearance rate for severe acute respiratory failure patients on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation(ECMO).Methods Forty-three patients with severe acute respiratory failure supported by venous-venous(v-v)ECMO were enrolled from January 2007 to January 2013.Arterial blood lactate at pre-ECMO support(0 h)and at

  20. Paraboles et catastrophes

    CERN Document Server

    Thom, René

    1983-01-01

    René Thom, mathématicien français, membre de l'Académie des Sciences, s'est vu décerner en 1958 la médaille Field, équivalent du Prix Nobel en mathématiques, pour ses créations intellectuelles, la " théorie des catastrophes ", regard nouveau sur toutes les transformations qui adviennent de manière brusque, imprévisible, dramatique. Dans ces entretiens qui vont de la mathématique à l'embryologie, de la linguistique à l'anthropologie et à l'histoire, René Thom expose les grandes lignes de la théorie des catastrophes et passe en revue, avec un esprit à la fois critique et passionné, les grands thèmes scientifiques de notre époque, de la physique atomique à la biologie moléculaire, du " progrès " scientifique et technologique aux connexions complexes entre la société et la science. " Ce petit livre est une extraordinaire réussite en vulgarisation ". (Jean Largeault)

  1. Early tibial tray failure of a Duracon knee with retrieval analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Ta-Feng; Tsai, Ruey-Yug; Lee, Pei-Yuan; Ku, Ming-Chou

    2004-09-01

    We report a case of early tibial tray fracture of a Duracon knee prosthesis. Aside from the clinical, radiographic, and gross analysis of the failed prosthesis, we also performed analysis on the retrieved polyethylene component and the fractured tibial baseplate. In the analyses, we noted significant femoral component malalignment, uneven tray cementation, and inherent metallurgical weakness. It appears that the high compressive load on the medial tray resulted in bending fatigue failure. To avoid this complication, it is important to restore the normal alignment of the knee joint and use a polyethylene insert of higher conformity, at least 6 mm thick.

  2. Can Biomarkers Help to Diagnose Early Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Meluzín

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Early heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF is a frequent disease, but its diagnosis is difficult and relies mostly on the evidence of left ventricular filling pressure (LVFP elevation during exercise. Several reports have suggested that natriuretic peptides plasma levels reflect exercise-induced increase in LVFP, but they still have significant limitations. In this context, any new laboratory biomarker that can accurately reflect LVFP elevation during exercise is desirable. Recently, cardiotrophin-1, soluble endoglin, ST2, growth differentiation factor 15, galectin-3, and other new laboratory markers associated with LVFP have emerged. However, the current data on the relationship of these biomarkers and diastolic dysfunction are limited to resting conditions. Therefore, their secretion deserves to be tested under the exercise to determine their potential role in making a diagnosis of early HFpEF.

  3. [Early kidney transplant failure and return to peritoneal dialysis: preliminary study of permeability and dialysis efficacy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronel, Francisco; Florit, Enrique; Cigarrán-Guldrís, Secundino; Herrero-Calvo, José A; Delgado-Córdova, Margarita; Rodríguez-Cubillo, Beatriz

    2014-01-01

    The return to dialysis after kidney transplant (TX) failure is increasingly common. On returning to dialysis after TX failure, there is usually a similar or worse clinical situation than in patients who are on haemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis (PD) for the first time. Although there are several studies on the clinical situation of patients who return to PD after long periods with a functioning TX, there is hardly any information on the progression of a patient subgroup returning to PD after TX failure a few days or weeks after transplantation. Assess whether a short period of time on suboptimal TX and aggressive treatment/measures may influence membrane permeability, the clinical situation and dialysis efficacy on returning to PD. In 9 patients (53.5 ± 15.4 years of age, 5 males and 4 females) who had previously been on PD before early TX failure and had returned to PD (25 ± 23 days, range 10-64) over the last five years, we studied laboratory data including inflammation, nutrition, kidney function, permeability and PD efficacy, at four points during progression: before TX, immediately after returning to PD and after one month and three months on PD. We did not detect significant differences in the progression of nutrition and inflammation parameters. Diuresis decreased significantly from pre-TX volume to diuresis on return to PD and after one month on PD (p=.032), remaining at low levels after three months on PD. UF decreased from 1407 to 951 ml/day (p=.022) and from 314 to 260 ml/4h (p=.018) in the peritoneal equilibration test after three months on PD, without changes being observed in the creatinine dialysate/plasma ratio. Kt/V and weekly creatinine clearance decreased slightly and remained at adequate efficacy levels. In this small sample of patients, who returned to PD after early TX failure, it does not appear that the measures involved in managing a graft at risk over a short period of time have a major effect on clinical parameters and permeability or

  4. Slope Failure Prediction and Early Warning Awareness Education for Reducing Landslides Casualty in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koay, S. P.; Tay, L. T.; Fukuoka, H.; Koyama, T.; Sakai, N.; Jamaludin, S. B.; Lateh, H.

    2015-12-01

    Northeast monsoon causes heavy rain in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia from November to March, every year. During this monsoon period, besides the happening of flood along east coast, landslides also causes millions of Malaysian Ringgit economical losses. Hence, it is essential to study the prediction of slope failure to prevent the casualty of landslides happening. In our study, we introduce prediction method of the accumulated rainfall affecting the stability of the slope. If the curve, in the graph, which is presented by rainfall intensity versus accumulated rainfall, crosses over the critical line, the condition of the slope is considered in high risk where the data are calculated and sent from rain gauge in the site via internet. If the possibility of slope failure is going high, the alert message will be sent out to the authorities for decision making on road block or setting the warning light at the road side. Besides road block and warning light, we propose to disseminate short message, to pre-registered mobile phone user, to notify the public for easing the traffic jam and avoiding unnecessary public panic. Prediction is not enough to prevent the casualty. Early warning awareness of the public is very important to reduce the casualty of landslides happening. IT technology does not only play a main role in disseminating information, early warning awareness education, by using IT technology, should be conducted, in schools, to give early warning awareness on natural hazard since childhood. Knowing the pass history on landslides occurrence will gain experience on the landslides happening. Landslides historical events with coordinate information are stored in database. The public can browse these historical events via internet. By referring to such historical landslides events, the public may know where did landslides happen before and the possibility of slope failure occurrence again is considered high. Simulation of rainfall induced slope failure mechanism

  5. Early embryonic failure: Expression and imprinted status of candidate genes on human chromosome 21

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sherman, L.S.; Bennett, P.R.; Moore, G.E. [Queen Charlotte`s and Chelsea Hospital, London (United Kingdom)

    1994-09-01

    Two cases of maternal uniparental (hetero)disomy for human chromosome 21 (mUPD21) have been identified in a systematic search for UPD in 23 cases of early embryonic failure (EEF). Bi-parental origin of the other chromosome pairs was confirmed using specific VNTR probes or dinucleotide repeat analysis. Both maternally and paternally derived isochromosomes 21q have previously been identified in two individuals with normal phenotypes. Full UPD21 has a different mechanism of origin than uniparental isochromosome 21q and its effect on imprinted genes and phenotypic outcome will therefore not necessarily be the same. EEF associated with mUPD21 suggests that developmentally important genes on HSA 21 may be imprinted such that they are only expressed from either the maternally or paternally derived alleles. We have searched for monoallelic expression of candidate genes on HSA 21 in human pregnancy (CBS, IFNAR, COL6A1) using intragenic DNA polymorphisms. These genes were chosen either because their murine homologues lie in imprinted regions or because they are potentially important in embryogenesis. Once imprinted candidate genes have been identified, their methylation status and expression in normal, early embryonic failure and uniparental disomy 21 pregnancies will be studied. At the same time, a larger number of cases of EEF are being examined to further investigate the incidence of UPD21 in this group.

  6. Catastrophic medical expenditure risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Gabriela; O'Donnell, Owen

    2016-03-01

    We propose a measure of household exposure to particularly onerous medical expenses. The measure can be decomposed into the probability that medical expenditure exceeds a threshold, the loss due to predictably low consumption of other goods if it does and the further loss arising from the volatility of medical expenses above the threshold. Depending on the choice of threshold, the measure is consistent with a model of reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. Unlike the risk premium, the measure is only sensitive to particularly high expenses, and can identify households that expect to incur such expenses and would benefit from subsidised, but not actuarially fair, insurance. An empirical illustration using data from seven Asian countries demonstrates the importance of taking account of informal insurance and reveals clear differences in catastrophic medical expenditure risk across and within countries. In general, risk is higher among poorer, rural and chronically ill populations.

  7. Detection of Taenia solium taeniasis coproantigen is an early indicator of treatment failure for taeniasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustos, Javier A; Rodriguez, Silvia; Jimenez, Juan A; Moyano, Luz M; Castillo, Yesenia; Ayvar, Viterbo; Allan, James C; Craig, Philip S; Gonzalez, Armando E; Gilman, Robert H; Tsang, Victor C W; Garcia, Hector H

    2012-04-01

    Taenia solium causes taeniasis and cysticercosis, a zoonotic complex associated with a significant burden of epilepsy in most countries. Reliable diagnosis and efficacious treatment of taeniasis are needed for disease control. Currently, cure can be confirmed only after a period of at least 1 month, by negative stool microscopy. This study assessed the performance of detection by a coproantigen enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (CoAg-ELISA) for the early evaluation of the efficacy of antiparasitic treatment of human T. solium taeniasis. We followed 69 tapeworm carriers who received niclosamide as standard treatment. Stool samples were collected on days 1, 3, 7, 15, 30, and 90 after treatment and were processed by microscopy and CoAg-ELISA. The efficacy of niclosamide was 77.9% (53/68). Thirteen patients received a second course of treatment and completed the follow-up. CoAg-ELISA was therefore evaluated for a total of 81 cases (68 treatments, 13 retreatments). In successful treatments (n = 64), the proportion of patients who became negative by CoAg-ELISA was 62.5% after 3 days, 89.1% after 7 days, 96.9% after 15 days, and 100% after 30 days. In treatment failures (n = 17), the CoAg-ELISA result was positive for 70.6% of patients after 3 days, 94.1% after 7 days, and 100% after 15 and 30 days. Only 2 of 17 samples in cases of treatment failure became positive by microscopy by day 30. The presence of one scolex, but not multiple scolices, in posttreatment stools was strongly associated with cure (odds ratio [OR], 52.5; P taeniasis. Early assessment at day 15 would detect treatment failure before patients become infective.

  8. A mouse model of early-onset renal failure due to a xanthine dehydrogenase nonsense mutation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sian E Piret

    Full Text Available Chronic kidney disease (CKD is characterized by renal fibrosis that can lead to end-stage renal failure, and studies have supported a strong genetic influence on the risk of developing CKD. However, investigations of the underlying molecular mechanisms are hampered by the lack of suitable hereditary models in animals. We therefore sought to establish hereditary mouse models for CKD and renal fibrosis by investigating mice treated with the chemical mutagen N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea, and identified a mouse with autosomal recessive renal failure, designated RENF. Three-week old RENF mice were smaller than their littermates, whereas at birth they had been of similar size. RENF mice, at 4-weeks of age, had elevated concentrations of plasma urea and creatinine, indicating renal failure, which was associated with small and irregularly shaped kidneys. Genetic studies using DNA from 10 affected mice and 91 single nucleotide polymorphisms mapped the Renf locus to a 5.8 Mbp region on chromosome 17E1.3. DNA sequencing of the xanthine dehydrogenase (Xdh gene revealed a nonsense mutation at codon 26 that co-segregated with affected RENF mice. The Xdh mutation resulted in loss of hepatic XDH and renal Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2 expression. XDH mutations in man cause xanthinuria with undetectable plasma uric acid levels and three RENF mice had plasma uric acid levels below the limit of detection. Histological analysis of RENF kidney sections revealed abnormal arrangement of glomeruli, intratubular casts, cellular infiltration in the interstitial space, and interstitial fibrosis. TUNEL analysis of RENF kidney sections showed extensive apoptosis predominantly affecting the tubules. Thus, we have established a mouse model for autosomal recessive early-onset renal failure due to a nonsense mutation in Xdh that is a model for xanthinuria in man. This mouse model could help to increase our understanding of the molecular mechanisms associated with renal fibrosis and the

  9. Inversion Method for Early Detection of ARES-1 Case Breach Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Ryan M.; Kulikov, Igor K.; Bajwa, Anupa; Berg, Peter; Smelyanskiy, Vadim

    2010-01-01

    A document describes research into the problem of detecting a case breach formation at an early stage of a rocket flight. An inversion algorithm for case breach allocation is proposed and analyzed. It is shown how the case breach can be allocated at an early stage of its development by using the rocket sensor data and the output data from the control block of the rocket navigation system. The results are simulated with MATLAB/Simulink software. The efficiency of an inversion algorithm for a case breach location is discussed. The research was devoted to the analysis of the ARES-l flight during the first 120 seconds after the launch and early prediction of case breach failure. During this time, the rocket is propelled by its first-stage Solid Rocket Booster (SRB). If a breach appears in SRB case, the gases escaping through it will produce the (side) thrust directed perpendicular to the rocket axis. The side thrust creates torque influencing the rocket attitude. The ARES-l control system will compensate for the side thrust until it reaches some critical value, after which the flight will be uncontrollable. The objective of this work was to obtain the start time of case breach development and its location using the rocket inertial navigation sensors and GNC data. The algorithm was effective for the detection and location of a breach in an SRB field joint at an early stage of its development.

  10. Heat shock protein 70 acts as a potential biomarker for early diagnosis of heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zongshi; Song, Yao; Xing, Rui; Yu, Haiyi; Zhang, Youyi; Li, Zijian; Gao, Wei

    2013-01-01

    Early identification for heart failure (HF) may be useful for disease modifying treatment in order to reduce heart disease progression or even to reverse it. In our previous studies, we have revealed a group of heat shock proteins (HSPs) which might be related to neonatal rat cardiomyocyte hypertrophy by proteomic approach. Here, we confirm that HSPs, including HSP27 and HSP70, altered in the early stage of cardiac remodeling in vivo animal model. Furthermore, plasma concentrations of those HSPs and their potential screening value were evaluated at different stages in 222 patient subjects. Plasma HSP27, HSP70 and HSP90 were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results indicate that HSP70 was positively correlated to the severity (progression) of HF (r = 0.456, p<0.001). The area under the rate of change (ROC) curve was 0.601 (p = 0.017) in patients with stage B HF and 0.835 (p<0.001) in those with stage C HF. However, HSP27 and HSP90 did not display significant changes in any stage of HF in this study. Taken together, plasma concentrations of HSP70 elevated with the progression of HF and might act as a potential screening biomarker for early diagnosis of HF.

  11. Aspirin and Statin Nonuse Associated With Early Biochemical Failure After Prostate Radiation Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaorsky, Nicholas G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Buyyounouski, Mark K., E-mail: mark.buyyounouski@fccc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Li, Tianyu [Department of Biostatistics, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Horwitz, Eric M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To present the largest retrospective series investigating the effect of aspirin and statins, which are hypothesized to have antineoplastic properties, on biochemical failure (nadir plus 2 ng/mL) after prostate radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Between 1989 and 2006, 2051 men with clinically localized prostate cancer received definitive RT alone (median dose, 76 Gy). The rates of aspirin use and statin use (defined as any use at the time of RT or during follow-up) were 36% and 34%, respectively. The primary endpoint of the study was an interval to biochemical failure (IBF) of less than 18 months, which has been shown to be the single strongest predictor of distant metastasis, prostate cancer survival, and overall survival after RT. Patient demographic characteristics and tumor staging factors were assessed with regard to associations with the endpoint. Univariate analysis was performed with the {chi}{sup 2} test for categorical variables and the Wilcoxon test for continuous variables. Multivariable analysis was performed with a multiple logistic regression. Results: The median follow-up was 75 months. Univariate analysis showed that an IBF of less than 18 months was associated with aspirin nonuse (P<.0001), statin nonuse (P<.0001), anticoagulant nonuse (P=.0006), cardiovascular disease (P=.0008), and prostate-specific antigen (continuous) (P=.008) but not with Gleason score, age, RT dose, or T stage. On multivariate analysis, only aspirin nonuse (P=.0012; odds ratio, 2.052 [95% confidence interval, 1.328-3.172]) and statin nonuse (P=.0002; odds ratio, 2.465 [95% confidence interval, 1.529-3.974]) were associated with an IBF of less than 18 months. Conclusions: In patients who received RT for prostate cancer, aspirin or statin nonuse was associated with early biochemical failure, a harbinger of distant metastasis and death. Further study is needed to confirm these findings and to determine the optimal dosing and schedule, as well as the relative

  12. Keishibukuryogan Reduces Renal Injury in the Early Stage of Renal Failure in the Remnant Kidney Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takako Nakagawa

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of keishibukuryogan on the early stage of progressive renal failure were examined in rats subjected to 5/6 nephrectomy. Keishibukuryogan, one of the traditional herbal formulations, was given orally at a dose of 1% (w/w and 3% (w/w in chow. Administration of keishibukuryogan was started at 1 week after 5/6 nephrectomy and was continued for 4 weeks. At the end of the experiment, Azan staining did not reveal any severe histological changes in the kidneys of the nephrectomized rats. On the other hand, significant increases in mRNA expressions of transforming growth factor-β1 and fibronectin related to tissue fibrosis, as examined by Reverse Transcriptase-Polymerase Chain Reaction, were observed in nephrectomized rats, and they were significantly suppressed by 3% keishibukuryogan treatment. Against gene expressions related to macrophage infiltration, 3% keishibukuryogan treatment significantly suppressed osteopontin mRNA levels, and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 mRNA levels showed a tendency to decrease, but without statistical significance. It was also observed that 3% keishibukuryogan attenuated serum urea nitrogen and urinary protein excretion levels. From these results, it was suggested that keishibukuryogan exerts beneficial effects that result in slowing the progression of chronic renal failure.

  13. Early renal failure after domino liver transplantation using organs from donors with primary hyperoxaluria type 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saner, Fuat H; Treckmann, Juergen; Pratschke, Johann; Arbogast, Helmut; Rahmel, Axel; Vester, Udo; Paul, Andreas

    2010-10-15

    Organ shortage is responsible for high mortality rates of patients awaiting liver transplantation (LT). Domino transplantation has had reported success in patients with metabolic disorders. Primary hyperoxaluria type 1 (PH1) is a rare metabolic disorder. There are a few case reports that suggest that PH1 livers originating from donors that have undergone combined liver-kidney transplantation can be successfully used for domino transplantation. In the last decade, five patients received a domino liver transplant from patients with PH1 in the EUROTRANSPLANT region. In this study, we report the clinical course and outcome of these five patients who were received a domino graft transplant. All patients, with the exception of one, suffered from multifocal hepatocellular carcinoma and underwent domino LT from patients undergoing combined liver-kidney transplantation for PH1. Within the first 4 weeks, all the domino recipients developed dialysis-dependent kidney failure despite good liver function. Four of the five patients died. The only survivor underwent retransplantation due to hepatic artery thrombosis. Twenty months after transplantation, this patient is doing well and has had no recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma. Domino LT using donors with PH1 results in early renal failure and cannot be recommended for transplantation unless preventive strategies have been identified.

  14. [Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome during pregnancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derks, Marloes; Oudijk, Martijn A; van der Made, Flip; van den Born, Bert-Jan H; van der Post, Joris A M

    2011-01-01

    Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) had been previously diagnosed in three pregnant women aged 32, 27 and 36 years, respectively. All three of them were using low-molecular weight heparin for the prevention of thromboembolic complications. The first two women were admitted because of foetal growth retardation. In the first patient, either HELLP syndrome or exacerbation of APS was suspected. A caesarean section was performed due to foetal distress. The patient's condition deteriorated further postoperatively. Multiple infarctions in liver and placenta were identified. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) was diagnosed. Despite intensive medical treatment including anticoagulation the patient died of massive pulmonary embolism. The second patient suffered from thrombocytopaenia, disturbances in hepatic function and epigastric pain. CAPS was diagnosed. The condition improved after treatment with glucocorticoids, but because of a poor foetal prognosis, delivery was induced and a lifeless son was born. The third woman was admitted due to pyelonephritis. Shortly thereafter, symptoms of HELLP syndrome developed and she was administered glucocorticoids. Hepatic infarcts and petechiae developed, indicating CAPS. Delivery was induced and a girl was born. Glucocorticoid treatment was resumed and combined with immunoglobulins and plasmapheresis. The patient recovered and was discharged together with her daughter. CAPS is a life-threatening variation of APS. It is characterised by multiple thromboses and rapidly progressive multi-organ failure. Mortality is high, but seems to diminish with treatment by immunosuppressive therapy. In pregnancy, clinical signs of CAPS are similar to those of HELLP syndrome. Since the treatment for HELLP syndrome is different from CAPS, a correct diagnosis is essential. Because of the rarity of this condition in combination with high rates of perinatal and maternal mortality, care for pregnant patients with APS should be centralised in

  15. Renin-Angiotensin Activation and Oxidative Stress in Early Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smita I. Negi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Animal models have suggested a role of renin-angiotensin system (RAS activation and subsequent cardiac oxidation in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF. Nevertheless, RAS blockade has failed to show efficacy in treatment of HFpEF. We evaluated the role of RAS activation and subsequent systemic oxidation in HFpEF. Oxidative stress markers were compared in 50 subjects with and without early HFpEF. Derivatives of reactive oxidative metabolites (DROMs, F2-isoprostanes (IsoPs, and ratios of oxidized to reduced glutathione (Eh GSH and cysteine (Eh CyS were measured. Angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE levels and activity were measured. On univariate analysis, HFpEF was associated with male sex (p=0.04, higher body mass index (BMI (p=0.003, less oxidized Eh CyS (p=0.001, lower DROMs (p=0.02, and lower IsoP (p=0.03. Higher BMI (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.1–1.6 and less oxidized Eh CyS (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1–1.4 maintained associations with HFpEF on multivariate analysis. Though ACE levels were higher in early HFpEF (OR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.01–1.05, ACE activity was similar to that in controls. HFpEF is not associated with significant systemic RAS activation or oxidative stress. This may explain the failure of RAS inhibitors to alter outcomes in HFpEF.

  16. Early treatment failure during treatment of Plasmodium falciparum malaria with atovaquone-proguanil in the Republic of Ivory Coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurtz, Nathalie; Pascual, Aurélie; Marin-Jauffre, Adeline; Bouchiba, Housem; Benoit, Nicolas; Desbordes, Marc; Martelloni, Maryse; Pommier de Santi, Vincent; Richa, Georges; Taudon, Nicolas; Pradines, Bruno; Briolant, Sébastien

    2012-05-02

    The increased spread of drug-resistant malaria highlights the need for alternative drugs for treatment and chemoprophylaxis. The combination of atovaquone-proguanil (Malarone®) has shown high efficacy against Plasmodium falciparum with only mild side-effects. Treatment failures have been attributed to suboptimal dosages or to parasite resistance resulting from a point mutation in the cytochrome b gene. In this paper, a case of early treatment failure was reported in a patient treated with atovaquone-proguanil; this failure was not associated with a mutation in the parasite cytochrome b gene, with impaired drug bioavailability, or with re-infection.

  17. Transvaginal color Doppler imaging of uterine contractions in early pregnancies: Significance of uterine contractions in early pregnancy failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Eun Ju; Han, Chang Jin; Suh, Jung Ho; Kwon, Hyuck Chan [Aju University SChool of Medicine, Suwon (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-06-15

    To assess uterine contractions in early pregnancies using transvaginal color Doppler sonography (TVCDS) and to determine the role of uterine contractions in the diagnosis of early pregnancy failure. 76 patients with abnormal pregnancy diagnosed by sonography or histopathology up to 10 weeks of gestation and 38 normal pregnant women as the control group were examines with TVCDS. The presence of uterine contractions was determined by complete or partial disappearance of the color flow signals of vessels within myometrium, and the direction, amplitude (grade 1-3), and interval of uterine contractions were also evaluated. Uterine contractions were identified in 42 (55.3%) of 76 patients with abnormal pregnancy, whereas they were detected only in 2 (5.3%) of 38 normal pregnant women who had initial grade 1 contraction but disappeared in the follow-up study. In 26 patients with blighted ovum or missed abortion, 15 patients (57.7%),showed uterine contraction of grade 1 in 3 cases, grade 2 in 8 cases, and grade 3 in 4 cases and interval from 45 seconds to 5 minutes. In 30 patients with inevitable or incomplete abortion, 23 patients (76.6%) showed uterine contraction of grade 1 in 2 cases, grade 2 in 9 cases, and grade 3 in 12 cases and interval from 1 to 5 minutes. 4 (20%) of 20 patients with threatened abortion had uterine contraction of grade 2 and interval from 2 to 4 minutes. The presence of uterine contractions was significantly different in abnormal pregnancies compared with that of normal and also among the tree different groups of abnormal pregnancies, but the amplitude did not differ.

  18. Catastrophic Misconceptions in Science Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyes, E.

    1988-01-01

    Models the ideas of children's misconceptions and subsequent acceptance of conventional scientific thought on the simple cusp of catastrophe theory. Demonstrates one theory of the forces which are necessary to change a misconception to a scientific concept. (CW)

  19. The SAFE project: community-driven partnerships in health, mental health, and education to prevent early school failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poole, D L

    1997-11-01

    This article presents a case study of an innovative school-based health and mental health project that prevents early school failure in one county in Oklahoma. Success is attributed to social work development of broad-based partnerships involving families, schools, communities, and public policy officials. Citizen-driven, these partnerships have meshed previously fixed institutional boundaries in health, mental health, and education to prevent early school failure. The article describes school-family partnerships that form the core of the project's service intervention model. Statistics on service activities and outcomes are presented, along with a discussion of lessons learned for implementation of the project.

  20. Management of early pregnancy failure and induced abortion by family medicine educators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbitter, Cara; Bennett, Ariana; Schubert, Finn D; Bennett, Ian M; Gold, Marji

    2013-01-01

    Reproductive health care, including treatment of early pregnancy failure (EPF) and induced abortion, is an integral part of patient-centered care provided by family physicians, but data suggest that comprehensive training is not widely available to family medicine residents. The purpose of this study was to assess EPF and induced abortion management practices and attitudes of family medicine physician educators throughout the United States and Canada. These data were collected as part of a cross-sectional survey conducted by the Council of Academic Family Medicine Educational Research Alliance that was distributed via E-mail to 3152 practicing physician members of Council of Academic Family Medicine organizations. The vast majority of respondents (88.2%) had treated EPF, whereas few respondents (15.3%) had provided induced medication or aspiration abortions. Of those who had treated EPF, most had offered medication management (72.7%), whereas a minority had provided aspiration management (16.4%). Almost all respondents (95%) agreed that EPF management is within the scope of family medicine, and nearly three-quarters (73.2%) agreed that early induced abortion is within the scope of family medicine. Our findings suggest that family physician educators are more experienced with EPF management than elective abortion. Given the overlap of skills needed for provision of these services, there is the potential to increase the number of family physician faculty members providing induced abortions.

  1. Predictors of Early Failure After Fecal Microbiota Transplantation for the Therapy of Clostridium Difficile Infection: A Multicenter Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Monika; Kao, Dina; Mehta, Shama R; Martin, Tracey; Dimitry, Joseph; Keshteli, Ammar H; Cook, Gwendolyn K; Phelps, Emmalee; Sipe, Brian W; Xu, Huiping; Kelly, Colleen R

    2016-07-01

    Fecal microbiota transplant (FMT) is a highly efficacious treatment for recurrent or refractory Clostridium difficile infection (CDI); however, 10-20% of patients fail to achieve cure after a single FMT. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors associated with FMT failure and to develop and validate a prediction model for FMT failure. Patient characteristics, CDI history, FMT characteristics, and outcomes data for patients treated between 2011 and 2015 at three academic tertiary referral centers were prospectively collected. Early FMT failure was defined as non-response or recurrence of diarrhea associated with positive stool C. difficile toxin or PCR within 1 month of FMT. Late FMT failure was defined as recurrence of diarrhea associated with positive stool C. difficile toxin or PCR between 1 and 3 months of the FMT. Patient data from two centers were used to determine independent predictors of FMT failure and to build a prediction model. A risk index was constructed based on coefficients of final predictors. The patient cohort from the third center was used to validate the prediction model. Of 328 patients in the developmental cohort, 73.5% (N=241) were females with a mean age of 61.4±19.3 years; 19.2% (N=63) had inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), and 23.5% (N=77) were immunocompromised. The indication for FMT was recurrent CDI in 87.2% (N=286) and severe or severe-complicated in 12.8% (N=42). FMT was performed as an inpatient in 16.7% (N=54). The stool source was patient-directed donors in 40% (N=130) of cases. The early FMT failure rate was 18.6%, and the late failure rate was 2.7%. In the multivariable analysis, predictors of early FMT failure included severe or severe-complicated CDI (odds ratio (OR) 5.95, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.26-15.62), inpatient status during FMT (OR 3.78, 95% CI: 1.55-9.24), and previous CDI-related hospitalization (OR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.18-1.75); with each additional hospitalization, the odds of failure increased by 43

  2. Effect of nicotinamide on early graft failure following intraportal islet transplantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Da-Yeon; Park, Jae Berm; Joo, Sung-Yeon; Joh, Jae-Won; Kwon, Choon-Hyuck; Kwon, Ghee-Young

    2009-01-01

    Intraportal islet transplantation (IPIT) may potentially cure Type 1 diabetes mellitus; however, graft failure in the early post-transplantation period presents a major obstacle. In this study, we tested the ability of nicotinamide to prevent early islet destruction in a syngeneic mouse model. Mice (C57BL/6) with chemically-induced diabetes received intraportal transplants of syngeneic islet tissue in various doses. Islets were cultured for 24 h in medium with or without 10 mM nicotinamide supplementation. Following IPIT, islet function was confirmed by an intraperitoneal glucose tolerance test (IPGTT) and hepatectomy. The effects of nicotinamide were evaluated by blood glucose concentration, serum monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) concentration, and immunohistology at 3 h and 24 h after IPIT. Among the various islet doses, an infusion of 300 syngeneic islets treated with nicotinamide exhibited the greatest differences in glucose tolerance between recipients of treated and untreated (i.e., control) islets. One day after 300 islet equivalent (IEQ) transplantation, islets treated with nicotinamide were better granulated than the untreated islets (P = 0.01), and the recipients displayed a slight decrease in serum MCP-1 concentration, as compared to controls. After 15 days, recipients of nicotinamide-pretreated islets showed higher levels of graft function (as measured by IPGTT) than controls. The pretreatment also prolonged graft survival (> 100 days) and function; these were confirmed by partial hepatectomy, which led to the recurrence of diabetes. Pretreatment of islet grafts with nicotinamide may prevent their deterioration on the early period following IPIT in a syngeneic mouse model. PMID:19641379

  3. Early diagnosis of the urofacial syndrome is essential to prevent irreversible renal failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco A. Nicanor

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The urofacial or Ochoa syndrome is a rare disease characterized by the presence of functional obstructive uropathy associated with peculiar facial features when patients attempt to smile or laugh. Unfortunately, many of these patients remain without proper diagnosis or adequate treatment due to lack of recognition of the disease. This can ultimately result in upper tract deterioration and eventual renal failure. We present our experience with this rare syndrome. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We identified 3 patients who presented initially with acute renal failure, urinary tract infection (UTI and severe dysfunctional elimination. All patients were thoroughly evaluated, including screening for spinal cord anomalies, and were subsequently diagnosed with urofacial syndrome. RESULTS: At the outset, the two older patients (aged 4 and 9 years presented with the typical facial features when attempting to smile or laugh. One patient in the newborn period presented with urinary and fecal retention and septicemia and, to our knowledge, represents the youngest case of urofacial syndrome reported so far. All patients were evaluated with ultrasonography, renal scan, voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG and urodynamics. Findings included hydronephrosis and a thick-walled, trabeculated bladder with poor compliance and detrusor hypereflexia respectively in each patient. All were subsequently treated with clean intermittent catheterization (CIC, antibiotic prophylaxis and anticholinergic therapy. One patient required appendicovesicostomy for CIC due to discomfort secondary to a sensate urethra. CONCLUSIONS: Our series demonstrates that early recognition of this rare syndrome is necessary to adequately treat and prevent upper tract deterioration in these unique individuals. Although the urofacial is difficult to diagnose in infants, cognizance must be maintained in order to prevent severe subsequent sequalae.

  4. Early primary graft failure after a pediatric heart transplant and successful rescue with plasmapheresis, immunoglobulins, and alemtuzumab

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shashi Raj

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Early primary graft failure after pediatric orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT has a high mortality rate and can occur due to several causes including but not limited to prolonged graft ischemia time, suboptimal preimplant myocardial preservation, hyperacute rejection, and maladaptation of the graft to the host's hemodynamic status. Mechanical circulatory support with either extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO or ventricular assist device has been used for the rescue of primary graft failure in pediatric patients after heart transplant. Cardiac arrest before ECMO initiation in these patients is associated with adverse neurologic outcome although those surviving to hospital discharge generally have excellent long-term outcome. We report a case of early primary graft failure after OHT who required ECMO support and successful rescue with plasmapheresis, immunoglobulins, and alemtuzumab.

  5. Economic evaluation of misoprostol in the treatment of early pregnancy failure compared to curettage after an expectant management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graziosi, GCM; van der Steeg, JW; Reuwer, PHW; Drogtrop, AP; Bruinse, HW; Mol, BWJ

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The increased pressure on health care expenses implies that physicians should consider economic aspects as part of the clinical decision-making process. Direct and indirect costs of a strategy starting with misoprostol in treatment of early pregnancy failure as compared to curettage is t

  6. Percutaneous transhepatic recanalization of malignant hilarobstruction: A possible rescue for early failure of endoscopic y-stenting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Hoon; Kim, Chang Won; Lee, Tae Hong; Kim, Dong Uk [Pusan National University School of Medicine, Pusan National University Hospital, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Jeon, Ung Bae; Kang, Dae Hwan [Pusan National University School of Medicine, Yangsan Pusan National University Hospital, Yangsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    Endoscopic biliary stenting is well known as an optimal method of management of malignant hilar obstruction, but sometimes the result is not satisfactory, with early stent failure. Percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) has a distinct advantage over endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatoscopy in that with ultrasound guidance one or more appropriate segments for drainage can be chosen. We evaluated the effectiveness of percutaneous transhepatic stenting as a rescue of early failure of endoscopic stenting. Ten patients (4 men, 6 women; age range, 52-78 years; mean age, 69 years) with inoperable biliary obstruction (2 patients with gall bladder cancer and hilar invasion, and 8 patients with Klatskin tumor) and with early endoscopic stent failure were included in our study. All of the patients underwent PTBD and percutaneous transhepatic biliary stenting. Metallic stents were placed in all patients for internal drainage. Percutaneous rescue stenting was successful in all the patients technically and clinically. Mean time for the development of biliary obstruction was 13.5 days after endoscopic stenting. The mean patency of the rescue stenting was 122 days. The mean survival time for percutaneous transhepatic rescue stenting was 226.3 days. In early failure of endoscopic biliary stenting, percutaneous transhepatic recanalization can be a possible solution.

  7. A unified approach of catastrophic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nikolopoulos

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological

  8. Serum microRNA expression patterns that predict early treatment failure in prostate cancer patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Prashant K.; Preus, Leah; Hu, Qiang; Yan, Li; Long, Mark D.; Morrison, Carl D.; Nesline, Mary; Johnson, Candace S.; Koochekpour, Shahriar; Kohli, Manish; Liu, Song; Trump, Donald L.

    2014-01-01

    We aimed to identify microRNA (miRNA) expression patterns in the serum of prostate cancer (CaP) patients that predict the risk of early treatment failure following radical prostatectomy (RP). Microarray and Q-RT-PCR analyses identified 43 miRNAs as differentiating disease stages within 14 prostate cell lines and reflectedpublically available patient data. 34 of these miRNA were detectable in the serum of CaP patients. Association with time to biochemical progression was examined in a cohort of CaP patients following RP. A greater than two-fold increase in hazard of biochemical progression associated with altered expression of miR-103, miR-125b and miR-222 (p <.0008) in the serum of CaP patients. Prediction models based on penalized regression analyses showed that the levels of the miRNAs and PSA together were better at detecting false positives than models without miRNAs, for similar level of sensitivity. Analyses of publically available data revealed significant and reciprocal relationships between changes in CpG methylation and miRNA expression patterns suggesting a role for CpG methylation to regulate miRNA. Exploratory validation supported roles for miR-222 and miR-125b to predict progression risk in CaP. The current study established that expression patterns of serum-detectable miRNAs taken at the time of RP are prognostic for men who are at risk of experiencing subsequent early biochemical progression. These non-invasive approaches could be used to augment treatment decisions. PMID:24583788

  9. Oxygen Kinetics and Heart Rate Response during Early Recovery from Exercise in Patients with Heart Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charalampos D. Kriatselis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. The purpose of this study was to assess the post-exercise O2 uptake and heart rate response in patients with heart failure (HF in comparison to healthy individuals. Methods and Results. Exercise testing of all subjects was conducted according to the RITE-protocol. The study subjects were classified according to their peak oxygen uptake (peak VO2 in four groups: healthy individuals with a peak VO2 >22 mL/kg/min (group 1, : 50, and patients with HF and a peak VO2 of 18–22 mL/kg/min, (group 2, : 48, 14–18 mL/kg/min (group 3, : 57, and <14 mL/kg/min (group 4, : 31. Both peak VO2 and HR declined more slowly in the patients with HF than in the normal subjects. Recovery of VO2 and HR followed monoexponential kinetics in the early post-recovery phase. This enabled the determination of a time constant for both HR and VO2 (TC VO2 and TC HR. From group 1 to 4 there was a prolongation of the time constant for VO2 and HR: TC VO2 (group 1: 110±34, group 2: 197±43, group 3: 238±80, and group 4: 278±50 sec, and TC HR (group 1: 148±82, group 2: 290±65, group 3: 320±58, and group 4: 376±55 sec. Conclusion. The rate of decline of VO2 and HR in the early post-exercise phase is inversely related to the peak VO2. The time constant for oxygen uptake (TC VO2 and heart rate (TC HR might prove a useful parameter for more precise monitoring and grading of HF.

  10. Chromothripsis: how does such a catastrophic event impact human reproduction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellestor, Franck

    2014-03-01

    The recent discovery of a new kind of massive chromosomal rearrangement, baptized chromothripsis (chromo for chromosomes, thripsis for shattering into pieces), greatly modifies our understanding of molecular mechanisms implicated in the repair of DNA damage and the genesis of complex chromosomal rearrangements. Initially described in cancers, and then in constitutional rearrangements, chromothripsis is characterized by the shattering of one (or a few) chromosome(s) segments followed by a chaotic reassembly of the chromosomal fragments, occurring during one unique cellular event. The diversity and the high complexity of chromothripsis events raise questions about their origin, their ties to chromosome instability and their impact in pathology. Several causative mechanisms, involving abortive apoptosis, telomere erosion, mitotic errors, micronuclei formation and p53 inactivation, have been proposed. The remarkable point is that all these mechanisms have been identified in the field of human reproduction as causal factors for reproductive failures and chromosomal abnormalities. Consequently, it seems important to consider this unexpected catastrophic phenomenon in the context of fertilization and early embryonic development in order to discuss its potential impact on human reproduction.

  11. Catastrophizing and perceived partner responses to pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boothby, Jennifer L; Thorn, Beverly E; Overduin, Lorraine Y; Ward, L Charles

    2004-06-01

    This study examined the relationship between catastrophizing and patient-perceived partner responses to pain behaviors. The Catastrophizing subscale of the Cognitive Coping Strategy Inventory and the West Haven-Yale Multidimensional Pain Inventory were completed by 62 adult chronic pain patients. Consistent with past research, catastrophizing and patient-perceived solicitous partner behaviors were positively correlated with negative pain outcomes. The communal coping theory of catastrophizing suggests that catastrophizing might be undertaken to solicit support and empathy from others. However, catastrophizing was not related to perceived solicitous partner behavior in this study. Rather, catastrophizing was associated with perceived punishing partner responses. Implications are that catastrophizing and perceived solicitous partner behaviors are independently associated with pain and that catastrophizing may not be reinforced by empathy from significant others.

  12. Use of All-polyethylene Tibial Components in Unicompartmental Knee Arthroplasty Increases the Risk of Early Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koh, In Jun; Suhl, Kyung Hwan; Kim, Min Woo; Kim, Man Soo; Choi, Keun Young; In, Yong

    2017-01-13

    All-polyethylene (all-poly) tibial designs in primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) have been reconsidered with excellent clinical outcomes, survivorship, and cost-effectiveness. However, whether all-poly tibial components provided comparable results to metal-backed modular components during unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) remains unclear. This study compared the clinical outcomes and prevalence of early failure between all-poly and metal-backed modular components in UKA. We retrospectively reviewed the records and radiographs of 101 consecutive UKAs. In total, 51 UKAs were performed using all-poly tibial components; 50 others used metal-backed modular components. Clinical and radiographic outcomes, adaptive bone remodeling assessed by radiographic bone density, and early failure prevalence rates were compared. Despite a lack of group differences in clinical and radiographic outcomes (p > 0.1 in all comparisons), adaptive bone remodeling at 2 years after surgery of all-poly UKAs was more progressive compared with metal-backed UKAs (1.2 in all-poly UKA group vs. 0.9 in metal-backed UKA group, p In addition, 6 of 51 all-poly UKAs failed within 2 years postoperatively, whereas no metal-backed UKAs failed (11% in all-poly UKA group vs. 0% in metal-backed UKA group, p = 0.027). All-poly tibial component use during UKA increased the risk of early failure, which may be due to a failure in tibial loading distribution.

  13. Microtubule dynamics: Caps, catastrophes, and coupled hydrolysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, H.; Holy, T.E.; Leibler, S.

    1996-01-01

    individual tubulin dimers, an ignored. In this cap model, GTP hydrolysis is assumed to be stochastic and uncoupled to microtubule growth. Different rates of hydrolysis are assumed for GTP in the cap's interior and for GTP at its boundary with hydrolyzed parts of the microtubule. Expectation values...... and probability distributions relating to available experimental data are derived. Caps are found to be short and the total rate of hydrolysis at a microtubule end is found to be dynamically coupled to growth. The so-called catastrophe rate is a simple function of the microtubule growth rare and fits experimental...... of microtubule growth before dilution. The GTP content of microtubules is found and its rare of hydrolysis is determined under the circumstances created in an experiment designed to measure this GTP content. It is concluded that this experiment's failure to register any GTP content is consistent with the model...

  14. Neurosurgical management for complicated catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drazin, Doniel; Westley Phillips, H; Shirzadi, Ali; Drazin, Noam; Schievink, Wouter

    2014-04-01

    Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is an autoimmune condition involving arterial and venous thrombosis. An unusual APS variant, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS), includes rapid multi-organ failure from widespread small vessel thrombosis. Central nervous system complications arise in one-third of CAPS patients. In rare cases, CAPS co-manifests with cerebellar hemorrhage presenting a neurosurgical emergency. We present a 65-year-old woman with CAPS-related cerebellar hematoma, co-morbid idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura, deep vein thrombosis and altered mental status, with treatment complicated by thrombocytopenia. The patient suddenly deteriorated, secondary to a cerebellar subdural hematoma, and underwent decompression and excision of the hematoma. After recovery in the intensive care unit, she developed a new spontaneous epidural hematoma requiring additional surgery. Management of these patients is hematologically complex and often requires a multi-disciplinary team of physicians. This patient provides an important learning point for clinicians - consider CAPS when hemorrhage and thrombosis are present.

  15. Device diagnostics and early identification of acute decompensated heart failure: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Tara Leslie

    2014-01-01

    Traditional methods of heart failure (HF) management are based on reactive strategies to treat late indicators of decompensated HF. Advances in monitoring methods have become available with the evolution of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators and cardiac-resynchronization therapy devices. These devices provide new diagnostic data and remote monitoring capabilities that allow clinicians to proactively monitor patients for earlier signs of worsening HF. The integration of data obtained from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator and cardiac-resynchronization therapy technology could improve outpatient HF care, potentially leading to decreased readmission rates and improved patient outcomes. This review will synthesize the literature regarding the efficacy of device diagnostic data and the usability of the data in the clinical setting. Articles for review were obtained using Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, MEDLINE, PubMed, and ClinicalTrials.gov. Device diagnostics showed strong correlation with established HF biomarkers and hemodynamic measures. The findings from this review indicate that device diagnostic parameters predict impending HF much earlier than traditional methods of monitoring do. Device diagnostics are also more accurate in the early prediction of HF when compared with noninvasive objective measures, particularly when multiple parameters are combined and monitored for trends. Device diagnostics possess a distinct advantage over traditional methods of monitoring for HF because they allow clinicians to remotely monitor the status of their HF patients without relying on patient compliance for data entry and reporting. Studies regarding the efficacy of device diagnostic parameters suggest that their integration into clinical practice will provide a more accurate and reliable mechanism for assisting clinicians in risk stratifying and predicting potential episodes of decompensated HF.

  16. Failure to thrive and death in early infancy associated with raised urinary homovanillic and vanillylmandelic acids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschberger, M; Kleinberg, G

    1976-12-01

    A case of failure to thrive in an infant with persistently raised urinary levels of homovanillic and vanillylmandelic acids is descirbed. No neural crest tumour was discovered at surgical exploration or at necropsy. The relation of this biochemical abnormality and failure to thrive is unclear.

  17. A retrospective analysis of patients referred for implant placement to a specialty clinic: indications, surgical procedures, and early failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornstein, Michael M; Halbritter, Sandro; Harnisch, Hendrik; Weber, Hans-Peter; Buser, Daniel

    2008-01-01

    This retrospective study analyzed the pool of patients referred for treatment with dental implants over a 3-year period in a referral specialty clinic. All patients receiving dental implants between 2002 and 2004 in the Department of Oral Surgery and Stomatology, University of Bern, were included in this retrospective study. Patients were analyzed according to age, gender, indications for implant therapy, location of implants, and type and length of implants placed. A cumulative logistic regression analysis was performed to identify and analyze potential risk factors for complications or failures. A total of 1,206 patients received 1,817 dental implants. The group comprised 573 men and 633 women with a mean age of 55.2 years. Almost 60% of patients were age 50 or older. The most frequent indication for implant therapy was single-tooth replacement in the maxilla (522 implants or 28.7%). A total of 726 implants (40%) were inserted in the esthetically demanding region of the anterior maxilla. For 939 implants (51.7%), additional bone-augmentation procedures were required. Of these, ridge augmentation with guided bone regeneration was performed more frequently than sinus grafting. Thirteen complications leading to early failures were recorded, resulting in an early failure rate of 0.7%. The regression analysis failed to identify statistically significant failure etiologies for the variables assessed. From this study it can be concluded that patients referred to a specialty clinic for implant placement were more likely to be partially edentulous and over 50 years old. Single-tooth replacement was the most frequent indication (> 50%). Similarly, additional bone augmentation was indicated in more than 50% of cases. Adhering to strict patient selection criteria and a standardized surgical protocol, an early failure rate of 0.7% was experienced in this study population.

  18. THE CATASTROPHIC RISK REINSURANCE: FOREIGN EXPERIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tatarina

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with foreign experience of catastrophic risks reinsurance. The directions to ensure savings and increase capitalization of insurance companies under reinsurance protection. The necessary of catastrophic risk reinsurance in Ukraine has brought.

  19. Guidance for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document addresses the types of asbestos issues that may arise during catastrophic events and how EPA has addressed such issues. It replaces the Guidelines for Catastrophic Emergency Situations Involving Asbestos which was issued in 1992.

  20. Interval training early after heart failure decompensation is safe and improves exercise tolerance and quality of life in selected patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doletsky, Artem; Andreev, Denis; Giverts, Ilya; Svet, Alexey; Brand, Anna; Kuklina, Maria; Sedov, Vsevolod; Dikur, Oxana; Syrkin, Abram; Saner, Hugo

    2017-01-01

    Aims To evaluate safety and efficacy of moderate intensity interval exercise training early after heart failure decompensation on exercise tolerance and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Methods and results This is a prospective randomized controlled study. We screened 234 consecutive patients admitted with decompensated heart failure; 46 patients (42 men/4 women; 61 ± 12 years of age) were randomized to a moderate intensity aerobic interval training ( n = 24) or to a control group ( n = 22). Patients underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing, echocardiography and Minnesota Living with Heart Failure questionnaire (MLHFQ) at baseline, after three weeks and after three months. After three weeks, peak-VO2 increased by 17% in the training group ( p = 0.003) with further increase by 10% after three months ( p quality of life in selected patients after achievement of clinical stability. Positive effects remained sustained after three months. Further studies are needed to define role and indications for interval exercise training early after heart failure decompensation.

  1. Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verendel, Vilhelm; Johansson, Daniel J. A.; Lindgren, Kristian

    2016-03-01

    Two decades of international negotiations show that agreeing on emission levels for climate change mitigation is a hard challenge. However, if early warning signals were to show an upcoming tipping point with catastrophic damage, theory and experiments suggest this could simplify collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the actual threshold, no country would have a free-ride incentive to increase emissions over the tipping point, but it remains for countries to negotiate their emission levels to reach these agreements. We model agents bargaining for emission levels using strategic reasoning to predict emission bids by others and ask how this affects the possibility of reaching agreements that avoid catastrophic damage. It is known that policy elites often use a higher degree of strategic reasoning, and in our model this increases the risk for climate catastrophe. Moreover, some forms of higher strategic reasoning make agreements to reduce greenhouse gases unstable. We use empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning when simulating the model.

  2. Long-Term Outcome of Definitive Radiotherapy for Early Glottic Cancer: Prognostic Factors and Patterns of Local Failure

    OpenAIRE

    Lim, Yu Jin; Wu, Hong-Gyun; Kwon, Tack-Kyun; Hah, J. Hun; Sung, Myung-Whun; Kim, Kwang Hyun; Park, Charn Il

    2015-01-01

    Purpose This study evaluates the long-term results of definitive radiotherapy (RT) for early glottic cancer. Clinical and treatment factors related to local control and patterns of failure are analyzed. Materials and Methods We retrospectively reviewed 222 patients with T1-2N0 squamous cell carcinoma of the glottic larynx treated with definitive RT from 1981 to 2010. None of the patients received elective nodal RT or combined chemotherapy. The median total RT dose was 66 Gy. The daily fractio...

  3. Ergospirometry and Echocardiography in Early Stage of Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction and in Healthy Individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Lima Garcia

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is a syndrome characterized by changes in diastolic function; it is more prevalent among the elderly, women, and individuals with systemic hypertension (SH and diabetes mellitus. However, in its early stages, there are no signs of congestion and it is identified in tests by adverse remodeling, decreased exercise capacity and diastolic dysfunction. Objective: To compare doppler, echocardiographic (Echo, and cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET variables - ergospirometry variables - between two population samples: one of individuals in the early stage of this syndrome, and the other of healthy individuals. Methods: Twenty eight outpatients diagnosed with heart failure according to Framingham’s criteria, ejection fraction > 50% and diastolic dysfunction according to the european society of cardiology (ESC, and 24 healthy individuals underwent Echo and CPET. Results: The group of patients showed indexed atrial volume and left ventricular mass as well as E/E’ and ILAV/A´ ratios significantly higher, in addition to a significant reduction in peak oxygen consumption and increased VE/VCO2 slope, even having similar left ventricular sizes in comparison to those of the sample of healthy individuals. Conclusion: There are significant differences between the structural and functional variables analyzed by Echo and CPET when comparing two population samples: one of patients in the early stage of heart failure with ejection fraction greater than or equal to 50% and another of healthy individuals.

  4. Early failure of Pavlik harness treatment for developmental hip dysplasia: clinical and ultrasound predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerman, J A; Emans, J B; Millis, M B; Share, J; Zurakowski, D; Kasser, J R

    2001-01-01

    A cohort of 93 patients with developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) treated with a Pavlik harness were evaluated to determine predictors of treatment failure. Failure was defined as failure to achieve or maintain hip reduction in the Pavlik harness. Of 93 patients (137 hips), 17 (26 hips) failed Pavlik harness treatment. Univariate risk factors for failure included bilaterality, initial clinical exam, and initial ultrasound (US) percent coverage. Clinical exam and initial percent coverage were multivariate risk factors for failure. Among initially clinically dislocatable hips, a low initial US alpha angle correlated with an increased likelihood of failure. All (6/6) patients with an initially irreducible hip and an initial coverage of <20% by US eventually failed treatment. Gender, side of pathology, and age at diagnosis and initiation of treatment did not correlate with failure. Irreducibility by physical exam combined with US coverage of <20% identified a patient group that uniformly failed Pavlik harness treatment. These patients may be candidates for alternative bracing, traction, or closed or open reduction.

  5. Early predictors of success of non-invasive positive pressure ventilation in hypercapnic respiratory failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, D; Prasad, Bnbm; Tampi, P S; Ramprasad, R

    2011-10-01

    Non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) has emerged as a significant advancement in the management of acute hypercapnic respiratory failure. Patients with hypercapnic respiratory failure requiring ventilation therapy (respiratory rate [RR] of > 30 breaths per minutes, PaCO2 > 55 mmHg and arterial pH intubation was evaluated. Of the 100 patients, 76 (76%) showed improvement in clinical parameters and ABG. There was improvement in HR and RR, pH, and PCO2 within the first hour in the success group and these parameters continued to improve even after four and 24 hours of NIPPV treatment. Out of 24 (24%) patients who failed to respond, 13 (54%) needed endotracheal intubation within one hour. The failure group had higher baseline HR than the success group. Improvement in HR, RR, pH, and PCO2 one hour after putting the patient on NIPPV predicts success of non-invasive positive pressure ventilation in hypercapnic respiratory failure.

  6. Sex differences in time to task failure during early pubertal development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudroff, Thorsten; Holmes, Matthew R; Melanson, Edward L; Kelsey, Megan M

    2014-06-01

    We compared fatigability and activation of elbow flexor muscles in children at 3 pubertal stages during a sustained submaximal contraction. In 72 healthy children (39 boys) aged 11 ± 3 years (range, 8-14 years), differences in fatigability (time to task failure) and muscle activation were compared at 3 Tanner stages (T1-T3). Time to task failure and muscle activation were similar between boys and girls at prepubertal Tanner stage 1. Time to task failure was briefer for girls than boys at Tanner stages 2 and 3 and was predicted by the coactivation indices and percent body fat in girls. Muscle torque was the only predictor for the time to task failure in boys. Differences in fatigability and muscle coactivation were evident during the initial pubertal stages (T2 and T3), but not before the onset of puberty (T1). Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Confinement, Turbulence and Diffraction Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaizot, J.-P.; Nowak, M. A.

    2009-08-01

    Many features of the large N transition that occurs in the spectral density of Wilson loops as a function of loop area (observed recently in numerical simulations of Yang-Mills theory by Narayanan and Neuberger) can be captured by a simple Burgers equation used to model turbulence. Spectral shock waves that precede this asymptotic limit exhibit universal scaling with N, with indices that can be related to Berry indices for diffraction catastrophes.

  8. Catastrophic fires in Russian forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. I. Sukhinin; D. J. McRae; B. J. Stocks; S. G. Conard; WeiMin Hao; A. J. Soja; D. Cahoon

    2010-01-01

    We evaluated the contribution of catastrophic fires to the total burned area and the amount of tree mortality in Russia since the 1970’s. Such fires occurred in the central regions of European Russia (1972, 1976, 1989, 2002, 2010), Khabarovsk krai (1976, 1988, 1998), Amur region (1997-2002), Republics of Yakutia and Tuva (2002), Magadan and Kamchatka oblast (1984, 2001...

  9. Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns, Jr.

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

  10. Early failure mechanisms of constrained tripolar acetabular sockets used in revision total hip arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, Christopher C; Hozack, William; Lavernia, Carlos; Sharkey, Peter; Shastri, Shani; Rothman, Richard H

    2003-10-01

    Fifty-eight patients received an Osteonics constrained acetabular implant for recurrent instability (46), girdlestone reimplant (8), correction of leg lengthening (3), and periprosthetic fracture (1). The constrained liner was inserted into a cementless shell (49), cemented into a pre-existing cementless shell (6), cemented into a cage (2), and cemented directly into the acetabular bone (1). Eight patients (13.8%) required reoperation for failure of the constrained implant. Type I failure (bone-prosthesis interface) occurred in 3 cases. Two cementless shells became loose, and in 1 patient, the constrained liner was cemented into an acetabular cage, which then failed by pivoting laterally about the superior fixation screws. Type II failure (liner locking mechanism) occurred in 2 cases. Type III failure (femoral head locking mechanism) occurred in 3 patients. Seven of the 8 failures occurred in patients with recurrent instability. Constrained liners are an effective method for treatment during revision total hip arthroplasty but should be used in select cases only.

  11. Failure rate analysis using GLIMMIX

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, L.M.; Hemphill, G.M.; Martz, H.F.

    1998-12-01

    This paper illustrates use of a recently developed SAS macro, GLIMMIX, for implementing an analysis suggested by Wolfinger and O`Connell (1993) in modeling failure count data with random as well as fixed factor effects. Interest in this software tool arose from consideration of modernizing the Failure Rate Analysis Code (FRAC), developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the early 1980`s by Martz, Beckman and McInteer (1982). FRAC is a FORTRAN program developed to analyze Poisson distributed failure count data as a log-linear model, possibly with random as well as fixed effects. These statistical modeling assumptions are a special case of generalized linear mixed models, identified as GLMM in the current statistics literature. In the nearly 15 years since FRAC was developed, there have been considerable advances in computing capability, statistical methodology and available statistical software tools allowing worthwhile consideration of the tasks of modernizing FRAC. In this paper, the approaches to GLMM estimation implemented in GLIMMIX and in FRAC are described and a comparison of results for the two approaches is made with data on catastrophic time-dependent pump failures from a report by Martz and Whiteman (1984). Additionally, statistical and graphical model diagnostics are suggested and illustrated with the GLIMMIX analysis results.

  12. Evaluation of the cool-down behaviour of ITER FW beryllium tiles for an early failure detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Weber

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The design of the first wall in ITER foresees several hundred thousand beryllium tiles, which are bonded to the water-cooled CuCrZr supporting structure. Due to the nature of a Tokamak reactor this bonding is faced to thermal fatigue. Since the failure of a single tile might already have a major impact on the operability of ITER, comprehensive high heat flux tests are performed on prototypes prior to the acceptance of manufacturing procedures. For a deeper understanding of the temperature curves, which were and will be measured by IR devices of these first wall prototypes, thermo-mechanical FEM simulations shall demonstrate the possibilities of an early bonding failure detection. Hereby, the maximum temperatures for each cycle as well as the cool-down behaviour are the input data.

  13. Effect of Early Vasopressin vs Norepinephrine on Kidney Failure in Patients With Septic Shock: The VANISH Randomized Clinical Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Anthony C; Mason, Alexina J; Thirunavukkarasu, Neeraja; Perkins, Gavin D; Cecconi, Maurizio; Cepkova, Magda; Pogson, David G; Aya, Hollmann D; Anjum, Aisha; Frazier, Gregory J; Santhakumaran, Shalini; Ashby, Deborah; Brett, Stephen J

    2016-08-02

    Norepinephrine is currently recommended as the first-line vasopressor in septic shock; however, early vasopressin use has been proposed as an alternative. To compare the effect of early vasopressin vs norepinephrine on kidney failure in patients with septic shock. A factorial (2×2), double-blind, randomized clinical trial conducted in 18 general adult intensive care units in the United Kingdom between February 2013 and May 2015, enrolling adult patients who had septic shock requiring vasopressors despite fluid resuscitation within a maximum of 6 hours after the onset of shock. Patients were randomly allocated to vasopressin (titrated up to 0.06 U/min) and hydrocortisone (n = 101), vasopressin and placebo (n = 104), norepinephrine and hydrocortisone (n = 101), or norepinephrine and placebo (n = 103). The primary outcome was kidney failure-free days during the 28-day period after randomization, measured as (1) the proportion of patients who never developed kidney failure and (2) median number of days alive and free of kidney failure for patients who did not survive, who experienced kidney failure, or both. Rates of renal replacement therapy, mortality, and serious adverse events were secondary outcomes. A total of 409 patients (median age, 66 years; men, 58.2%) were included in the study, with a median time to study drug administration of 3.5 hours after diagnosis of shock. The number of survivors who never developed kidney failure was 94 of 165 patients (57.0%) in the vasopressin group and 93 of 157 patients (59.2%) in the norepinephrine group (difference, -2.3% [95% CI, -13.0% to 8.5%]). The median number of kidney failure-free days for patients who did not survive, who experienced kidney failure, or both was 9 days (interquartile range [IQR], 1 to -24) in the vasopressin group and 13 days (IQR, 1 to -25) in the norepinephrine group (difference, -4 days [95% CI, -11 to 5]). There was less use of renal replacement therapy in the vasopressin group

  14. Heart failure: optimizing early detection and subsequent drug treatment in older people

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Riet, E.E.S. van

    2016-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) is a progressive syndrome mainly and often encountered in older people, and has been called ‘the cardiovascular epidemic of the 21st century’. With extrapolation of the results of our literature review about the prevalence of HF in the older population at large, we even think the

  15. Prediction and prevention of failure: an early intervention to assist at-risk medical students

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winston, K.A.; Vleuten, C.P.M. van der; Scherpbier, A.J.J.A.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Consistent identification and prevention of failure for at-risk medical students is challenging, failing courses is costly to all stakeholders, and there is need for further research into duration, timing and structure of interventions to help students in difficulty. AIMS: To verify the

  16. Effect of Early School Failure Experiences on Self-Image Development and Implications for School Counselors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamachek, Don E.

    This paper basically addressed itself to the question of why so many young people drop out of school. It appears that the great majority drop out because they simply cannot tolerate more failure and the commensurate feelings of low self-worth and self-esteem. It was emphasized that success experiences for elementary school youngsters are important…

  17. GLUT12 deficiency during early development results in heart failure and a diabetic phenotype in zebrafish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiménez-Amilburu, Vanesa; Jong-Raadsen, Susanne; Bakkers, Jeroen; Spaink, Herman P; Marín-Juez, Rubén

    2015-01-01

    Cardiomyopathies-associated metabolic pathologies (e.g., type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance) are a leading cause of mortality. It is known that the association between these pathologies works in both directions, for which heart failure can lead to metabolic derangements such as insulin resistanc

  18. Primary Prevention of Reading Failure: Effect of Universal Peer Tutoring in the Early Grades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Giavana; Ostojic, Dragana; Menard, Jessica; Picard, Erin; Miller, Carlin J.

    2017-01-01

    Reading is typically considered a survival skill in our technology- and literacy-bound culture. Individuals who struggle with learning to read are at significantly elevated risk for a number of negative outcomes, including school failure, under- and unemployment, and special education placement. Thus, those who do not learn to read fluently will…

  19. Success after Failure: Academic Effects and Psychological Implications of Early Universal Algebra Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Keith A.; Scott, Allison; Romero, Martin; Saddler, Derrick

    2015-01-01

    In this article, the authors use the High School Longitudinal Study 2009 (HSLS:09) national database to analyze the relationships between algebra failure, subsequent performance, motivation, and college readiness. Students who failed eighth-grade Algebra I did not differ significantly in mathematics proficiency from those who passed lower-level…

  20. Early management of patients with acute heart failure: state of the art and future directions. A consensus document from the society for academic emergency medicine/heart failure society of America acute heart failure working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Sean; Storrow, Alan B; Albert, Nancy M; Butler, Javed; Ezekowitz, Justin; Felker, G Michael; Fermann, Gregory J; Fonarow, Gregg C; Givertz, Michael M; Hiestand, Brian; Hollander, Judd E; Lanfear, David E; Levy, Phillip D; Pang, Peter S; Peacock, W Frank; Sawyer, Douglas B; Teerlink, John R; Lenihan, Daniel J

    2015-01-01

    Heart failure (HF) afflicts nearly 6 million Americans, resulting in one million emergency department (ED) visits and over one million annual hospital discharges. An aging population and improved survival from cardiovascular diseases is expected to further increase HF prevalence. Emergency providers play a significant role in the management of patients with acute heart failure (AHF). It is crucial that emergency physicians and other providers involved in early management understand the latest developments in diagnostic testing, therapeutics and alternatives to hospitalization. Further, clinical trials must be conducted in the ED in order to improve the evidence base and drive optimal initial therapy for AHF. Should ongoing and future studies suggest early phenotype-driven therapy improves in-hospital and post-discharge outcomes, ED treatment decisions will need to evolve accordingly. The potential impact of future studies which incorporate risk-stratification into ED disposition decisions cannot be underestimated. Predictive instruments that identify a cohort of patients safe for ED discharge, while simultaneously addressing barriers to successful outpatient management, have the potential to significantly impact quality of life and resource expenditures.

  1. Is Geothermal Simulation a "Catastrophe"?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, V.V.; Pinder, George F.

    1980-12-16

    All numerical simulators of geothermal reservoirs depend upon an accurate representation of the thermodynamics of steam-water systems. These relationships are required to render tractable the system of balance equations derived from the physics of flow through porous media. While it is generally recognized that the steam-water system (i.e. two phase) is not in thermodynamic equilibrium, equihbrium thermodynamics are employed in its description. In this paper, we present an alternative view based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics. The underpinnings of this approach are found in a branch of topology generally referred to as "catastrophe theory". [Thom, 1975

  2. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

    2013-01-01

    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

  3. The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

    2013-01-01

    Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

  4. Early non-invasive ventilation treatment for respiratory failure due to severe community-acquired pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolini, Antonello; Ferraioli, Gianluca; Ferrari-Bravo, Maura; Barlascini, Cornelius; Santo, Mario; Ferrera, Lorenzo

    2016-01-01

    Severe community-acquired pneumonia (sCAP) have been as defined pneumonia requiring admission to the intensive care unit or carrying a high risk of death. Currently, the treatment of sCAP consists of antibiotic therapy and ventilator support. The use of invasive ventilation causes several complications as does admission to ICU. For this reason, non-invasive ventilation (NIV) has been used for acute respiratory failure to avoid endotracheal intubation. However, few studies have currently assessed the usefulness of NIV in sCAP. We prospectively assessed 127 patients with sCAP and severe acute respiratory failure [oxygen arterial pressure/oxygen inspiratory fraction ratio (PaO2/FiO2) intubation and the achievement of PaO2/FiO2 >250 with spontaneous breathing. We assessed predictors of NIV failure and hospital mortality using univariate and multivariate analyses. NIV failed in 32 patients (25.1%). Higher chest X-ray score at admission, chest X-ray worsening, and a lower PaO2/FiO2 and higher alveolar-arteriolar gradient (A-aDO2) after 1 h of NIV all independently predicted NIV failure. Higher lactate dehydrogenase and confusion, elevated blood urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure plus age ≥65 years at admission, higher A-aDO2, respiratory rate and lower PaO2/FiO2 after 1 h of NIV and intubation rate were directly related to hospital mortality. Successful treatment is strongly related to less severe illness as well as to a good initial and sustained response to medical therapy and NIV treatment. Constant monitoring of these patients is mandatory. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Early Onset of Tenofovir-Induced Renal Failure: Case Report and Review of the Literature

    OpenAIRE

    Patel, Shilpa M.; Zembower, Teresa R.; Frank Palella; Kanwar, Yashpal S.; Ahya, Shubhada N.

    2007-01-01

    Tenofovir is an acyclic nucleotide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitor that is commonly prescribed as part of a highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) regimen in HIV-infected patients. Although it is generally well tolerated, renal insufficiency has been associated with its use. We report a biopsy-proven case of acute renal failure that developed within weeks of initiating a HAART regimen containing tenofovir, and review the literature with specific attention to cases of renal fail...

  6. Homocysteine as a predictive biomarker in early diagnosis of renal failure susceptibility and prognostic diagnosis for end stages renal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, Hatem K; El-Sayed, Mohamed-I Kotb; Leheta, Ola F

    2016-09-01

    Glomerular filtration rate and/or creatinine are not accurate methods for renal failure prediction. This study tested homocysteine (Hcy) as a predictive and prognostic marker for end stage renal disease (ESRD). In total, 176 subjects were recruited and divided into: healthy normal group (108 subjects); mild-to-moderate impaired renal function group (21 patients); severe impaired renal function group (7 patients); and chronic renal failure group (40 patients) who were on regular hemodialysis. Blood samples were collected, and serum was separated for analysis of total Hcy, creatinine, high sensitive C-reactive protein (CRP), serum albumin, and calcium. Data showed that Hcy level was significantly increased from normal-to-mild impairment then significantly decreases from mild impairment until the patient reaches severe impairment while showing significant elevation in the last stage of chronic renal disease. Creatinine level was increased in all stages of kidney impairment in comparison with control. CRP level was showing significant elevation in the last stage. A significant decrease in both albumin and calcium was occurred in all stages of renal impairment. We conclude Hcy in combination with CRP, creatinine, albumin, and calcium can be used as a prognostic marker for ESRD and an early diagnostic marker for the risk of renal failure.

  7. Catastrophic Evaporation of Rocky Planets

    CERN Document Server

    Perez-Becker, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Short-period exoplanets can have dayside surface temperatures surpassing 2000 K, hot enough to vaporize rock and drive a thermal wind. Small enough planets evaporate completely. We construct a radiative-hydrodynamic model of atmospheric escape from strongly irradiated, low-mass rocky planets, accounting for dust-gas energy exchange in the wind. Rocky planets with masses 2000 K are found to disintegrate entirely in 0.1 M_Earth/Gyr --- our model yields a present-day planet mass of < 0.02 M_Earth or less than about twice the mass of the Moon. Mass loss rates depend so strongly on planet mass that bodies can reside on close-in orbits for Gyrs with initial masses comparable to or less than that of Mercury, before entering a final short-lived phase of catastrophic mass loss (which KIC 12557548b has entered). Because this catastrophic stage lasts only up to a few percent of the planet's life, we estimate that for every object like KIC 12557548b, there should be 10--100 close-in quiescent progenitors with sub-da...

  8. Six-Year Survival and Early Failure Rate of 2918 Implants with Hydrophobic and Hydrophilic Enossal Surfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivier Le Gac

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this chart review was to obtain an objective, quantitative assessment of the clinical performance of an implant line used in an implantological office setting. Implants with hydrophilic (INICELL and hydrophobic (TST; both: Thommen Medical AG, Grenchen, Switzerland enossal surfaces were compared and the cumulative implant survival rate was calculated. The data of 1063 patients that received 2918 implants (1337 INICELL, 1581 TST was included. The average follow up time was 2.1 (1.1–5.4 years for INICELL and 4.5 (1.3–5.9 years for TST implants (Thommen Medical AG, Switzerland. In the reported period 7 implants with INICELL (0.5% and 23 TST implants (1.5% failed. This difference was statistically significant. The analysis of cases treated and followed up in a single implantological office for 6 years confirmed the very good clinical outcome that was achieved with both used implant lines. Within the limitations of this retrospective analysis, the overall early failure rate of the hydrophilic implants was significantly lower than that of hydrophobic implants. The use of hydrophilic implants allows the clinician to obtain less early failures, hence the interest of an up-to-date surface for the daily work of an implant practice.

  9. Catastrophe mechanism & classification of discontinuity behavior in thermal science (Ⅰ) --Fold catastrophe

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The mechanism of discontinuity behavior has important significance in the study of thermal science,such as fire,combustion,explosion and heat transfer.This sort of discontinuity behavior and the catastrophe caused by system nonlinearity may be equivalently classified according to the catastrophe model promulgated by catastrophe theory.Under the conditions of uniform temperature and thermal isolation,the self-ignition behavior of a Semenov System can be viewed as a result of the fold catastrophe of the system.

  10. Possibilities And Influencing Parameters For The Early Detection Of Sheet Metal Failure In Press Shop Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerlach, Jörg; Kessler, Lutz; Paul, Udo; Rösen, Hartwig

    2007-05-01

    The concept of forming limit curves (FLC) is widely used in industrial practice. The required data should be delivered for typical material properties (measured on coils with properties in a range of +/- of the standard deviation from the mean production values) by the material suppliers. In particular it should be noted that its use for the validation of forming robustness providing forming limit curves for the variety of scattering in the mechanical properties is impossible. Therefore a forecast of the expected limit strains without expensive cost and time-consuming experiments is necessary. In the paper the quality of a regression analysis for determining forming limit curves based on tensile test results is presented and discussed. Owing to the specific definition of limit strains with FLCs following linear strain paths, the significance of this failure definition is limited. To consider nonlinear strain path effects, different methods are given in literature. One simple method is the concept of limit stresses. It should be noted that the determined value of the critical stress is dependent on the extrapolation of the tensile test curve. When the yield curve extrapolation is very similar to an exponential function, the definition of the critical stress value is very complicated due to the low slope of the hardening function at large strains. A new method to determine general failure behavior in sheet metal forming is the common use and interpretation of three criteria: onset on material instability (comparable with FLC concept), value of critical shear fracture and the value of ductile fracture. This method seems to be particularly successful for newly developed high strength steel grades in connection with more complex strain paths for some specific material elements. Nevertheless the identification of the different failure material parameters or functions will increase and the user has to learn with the interpretation of the numerical results.

  11. Early failure of Class II resin composite versus Class II amalgam restorations placed by dental students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overton, J D; Sullivan, Diane J

    2012-03-01

    Using the information from remake request slips in a dental school's predoctoral clinic, we examined the short-term survival of Class II resin composite restorations versus Class II dental amalgam restorations. In the student clinic, resin composite is used in approximately 58 percent of Class II restorations placed, and dental amalgam is used in the remaining 42 percent. In the period examined, Class II resin composite restorations were ten times more likely to be replaced at no cost to the patient than Class II dental amalgam restorations. A total of eighty-four resin composite restorations and six amalgam restorations were replaced due to an identified failure.

  12. Early Detection of Plant Equipment Failures: A Case Study in Just-in-Time Maintenance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Kim, Kyusung; Bharadwaj, Raj M.

    2001-06-17

    The development and testing of a model-based fault detection system for electric motors is briefly presented. The fault detection system was developed using only motor nameplate information. The fault detection results presented utilize only motor voltage and current sensor information, minimizing the need for expensive or intrusive sensors. Dynamic recurrent neural networks are used to predict the input-output response of a three-phase induction motor while using an estimate of the motor speed signal. Multiresolution (or wavelet) signal-processing techniques are used in combination with more traditional methods to estimate fault features for use in winding insulation and motor mechanical and electromechanical failure detection.

  13. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: a clinical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nayer, Ali; Ortega, Luis M

    2014-01-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare life-threatening autoimmune disease characterized by disseminated intravascular thrombosis resulting in multiorgan failure. Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), Google Scholar, PubMed (NLM), LISTA (EBSCO) and Web of Science have been searched. CAPS is due to antiphospholipid antibodies directed against a heterogeneous group of proteins that are associated with phospholipids. These autoantibodies activate endothelial cells, platelets, and immune cells, thereby promoting a proinflammatory and prothrombotic phenotype. Furthermore, antiphospholipid antibodies inhibit anticoagulants, impair fibrinolysis, and activate complements. Although CAPS can affect a variety of organs and tissues, the kidneys, lungs, central nervous system, heart, skin, liver, and gastrointestinal tract are most commonly affected. The systemic inflammatory response syndrome, likely to extensive tissue damage, accompanies CAPS. The most frequent renal manifestations are hypertension, proteinuria, hematuria, and acute renal failure.In the majority of patients with CAPS, a precipitating factor such as infection, surgery, or medication can be identified. Antiphospholipid antibodies such as lupus anticoagulant and antibodies against cardiolipin, β2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin are serological hallmark of CAPS. Laboratory tests often reveal antinuclear antibodies, thrombocytopenia, and anemia. Despite widespread intravascular coagulation, blood films reveal only a small number of schistocytes. In addition, severe thrombocytopenia is uncommon. Histologically, CAPS is characterized by acute thrombotic microangiopathy. CAPS must be distinguished from other forms of thrombotic microangiopathies such as hemolytic-uremic syndrome, thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and heparin-induced thrombocyt openia. CAPS is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Therefore, an aggressive multidisciplinary

  14. Early Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Support for 5-Fluorouracil-induced Acute Heart Failure with Cardiogenic Shock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höllriegel, Robert; Fischer, Julia; Schuler, Gerhard

    2014-01-01

    A 50-year-old man with no previous history of cardiovascular disease or risk factors was admitted for syncope and orthopnea. Importantly, he underwent recent chemotherapy with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) until 1 day before his acute presentation. In the emergency room, patient developed asystole and was successfully resuscitated for 2 min. At coronary angiography, no signs of coronary artery disease were detectable, but transthoracic echocardiography showed a severely decreased left-ventricular systolic function. Due to the progressive cardiogenic shock, an extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support was used as bridge-to-recovery and to avoid the use of sympathomimetics with their known disadvantages. On ECMO support, hemodynamic stabilization was evident and medical heart failure treatment was commenced. Left-ventricular function recovered to normal values within a short period of time. Cardiac complications after chemotherapy with 5-FU are not rare and should be taken into consideration even in acute heart failure with cardiogenic shock. ECMO as the most potent form of acute cardiorespiratory support enables complete relief of cardiac workload and therefore recovery of cardiac function.

  15. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  16. Catastrophic Disruption of Comet ISON

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keane, Jacqueline V.; Milam, Stefanie N.; Coulson, Iain M.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Sekanina, Zdenek; Kracht, Rainer; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J.; Charnley, Steven B.

    2016-01-01

    We report submillimeter 450 and 850 microns dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31-0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 (rh?=?0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60? (greater than 10(exp 5) km in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 microns image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing approximately 5.2?×?10(exp 10) kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

  17. Environmental Catastrophes Under Time-inconsistent Preferences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michielsen, T.O.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time-in

  18. Fracto—emissions in Catastrophic Cleavage Process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HonglaiTAN; WeiYANG

    1996-01-01

    Fracto-emissions accompanying crack propagation are observed in the recent experiments.The energy impulses during and after fracture stimulate the fracto-emissions.Model concerning atomic scale cleavage processes is proposed to formulate a catastrophic fracure theory relevant to these phenomena.A criterion for catastrophic jump of the cleavage potential is applied to representative crystals.

  19. Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seth D. Baum

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

  20. Reversible Motor Paralysis and Early Cardiac Rehabilitation in Patients With Advanced Heart Failure Receiving Left Ventricular Assist Device Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amao, Rie; Imamura, Teruhiko; Nakahara, Yasuo; Noguchi, Satoko; Kinoshita, Osamu; Yamauchi, Haruo; Ono, Minoru; Haga, Nobuhiko

    2016-12-02

    Advanced heart failure (HF) is sometimes complicated with brain impairment because of a microthrombosis caused by decreased left ventricular contraction or reduced brain circulation. Some patients may recover after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation. However, little is known about the perioperative therapeutic strategy in patients suffering from such complications, particularly from a cardiac rehabilitation viewpoint. We report on a 58-year-old male patient with a previous history of poliomyelitis and a light paralysis in the left upper extremity, who suffered left hemiplegia with no evidence of stroke after hemodynamic deterioration. The combination therapy of perioperative cardiac rehabilitation and LVAD therapy improved his left hemiplegia as well as activities of daily living, and the patient was discharged on foot on postoperative day 72 after briefing the family on LVAD home management. Early initiation of cardiac rehabilitation before LVAD implantation may be a key for the smooth discharge and resocialization of patients suffering from brain impairment complicated with advanced HF.

  1. Assessment of dyspnea early in acute heart failure: patient characteristics and response differences between likert and visual analog scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Peter S; Collins, Sean P; Sauser, Kori; Andrei, Adin-Cristian; Storrow, Alan B; Hollander, Judd E; Tavares, Miguel; Spinar, Jindrich; Macarie, Cezar; Raev, Dimitar; Nowak, Richard; Gheorghiade, Mihai; Mebazaa, Alexandre

    2014-06-01

    Dyspnea is the most common symptom in acute heart failure (AHF), yet how to best measure it has not been well defined. Prior studies demonstrate differences in dyspnea improvement across various measurement scales, yet these studies typically enroll patients well after the emergency department (ED) phase of management. The aim of this study was to determine predictors of early dyspnea improvement for three different, commonly used dyspnea scales (i.e., five-point absolute Likert scale, 10-cm visual analog scale [VAS], or seven-point relative Likert scale). This was a post hoc analysis of URGENT Dyspnea, an observational study of 776 patients in 17 countries enrolled within 1 hour of first physician encounter. Inclusion criteria were broad to reflect real-world clinical practice. Prior literature informed the a priori definition of clinically significant dyspnea improvement. Resampling-based multivariable models were created to determine patient characteristics significantly associated with dyspnea improvement. Of the 524 AHF patients, approximately 40% of patients did not report substantial dyspnea improvement within the first 6 hours. Baseline characteristics were similar between those who did or did not improve, although there were differences in history of heart failure, coronary artery disease, and initial systolic blood pressure. For those who did improve, patient characteristics differed across all three scales, with the exception of baseline dyspnea severity for the VAS and five-point Likert scale (c-index ranged from 0.708 to 0.831 for each scale). Predictors of early dyspnea improvement differ from scale to scale, with the exception of baseline dyspnea. Attempts to use one scale to capture the entirety of the dyspnea symptom may be insufficient. © 2014 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  2. Assessment of Dyspnea Early in Acute Heart Failure: Patient Characteristics and Response Differences Between Likert and Visual Analog Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Peter S.; Collins, Sean P.; Sauser, Kori; Andrei, Adin-Cristian; Storrow, Alan B.; Hollander, Judd E.; Tavares, Miguel; Spinar, Jindrich; Macarie, Cezar; Raev, Dimitar; Nowak, Richard; Gheorghiade, Mihai; Mebazaa, Alexandre

    2014-01-01

    Background Dyspnea is the most common symptom in acute heart failure (AHF), yet how to best measure it has not been well defined. Prior studies demonstrate differences in dyspnea improvement across various measurement scales, yet these studies typically enroll patients well after the ED phase of management. Objectives The aim of this study was to determine predictors of early dyspnea improvement for three different, commonly used dyspnea scales (i.e. five point absolute Likert scale, 10 cm visual analogue scale [VAS], or seven point relative Likert scale). Methods This was a post-hoc analysis of URGENT Dyspnea, an observational study of 776 patients in 17 countries enrolled within one hour of first physician encounter. Inclusion criteria were broad to reflect real-world clinical practice. Prior literature informed the a priori definition of clinically significant dyspnea improvement. Resampling-based multivariable models were created to determine patient characteristics significantly associated with dyspnea improvement. Results Of the 524 AHF patients, approximately 40% of patients did not report substantial dyspnea improvement within the first 6 hours. Baseline characteristics were similar between those who did or did not improve, though there were differences in history of heart failure, coronary artery disease, and initial systolic blood pressure. For those who did improve, patient characteristics differed across all three scales, with the exception of baseline dyspnea severity for the VAS and five point Likert scale (c-index ranged from 0.708 to 0.831 for each scale). Conclusions Predictors of early dyspnea improvement differ from scale to scale, with the exception of baseline dyspnea. Attempts to use one scale to capture the entirety of the dyspnea symptom may be insufficient. PMID:25039550

  3. Chemical Safety Alert: Catastrophic Failure of Storage Tanks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aboveground, atmospheric storage tanks can fail when flammable vapors in the tank explode and break either the shell-to-bottom or side seam, resulting in hazardous release accidents. Proper maintenance practices can help prevent accidents.

  4. Is IL-33 useful to detect early stage of renal failure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caner, Sedat; Usluoğulları, Celil Alper; Balkan, Fevzi; Büyükcam, Fatih; Kaya, Cafer; Saçıkara, Muhammed; Koca, Cemile; Ersoy, Reyhan; Çakır, Bekir

    2014-02-01

    IL-33 is a proinflammatory cytokine that is a member of IL-1 family. Previously the effect of IL-33 on kidney injury is showed in animal models. In this study, we searched if we can use IL-33 to show the early stage of kidney injury in diabetic patients. Three groups are identified: 26 patients in Group 1: Healthy group, that do not have any chronic diseases and not taking any medication; 42 patients in Group 2: DM (diabetes mellitus) group without any known kidney disease and with normal kidney functions; 32 patients in Group 3: DM + MA (microalbuminuria) group that are assumed to have nephropathy. IL-33 level of DM patient group is greater than healthy group; also IL-33 level of DM + MA patient group is greater than healthy group; but there is not any difference between DM and DM + MA group. The increase in IL-33 levels in diabetic nephropathy is not associated with kidney injury but the increase could be resulting because of diabetes. So IL-33 cannot be used in early recognition of diabetic nephropathy.

  5. Dynamic changes of early-stage aortic lipid deposition in chronic renal failure rats and effects of decorin gene therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Hong-Bo; Wang, Rong; Yu, Ke-Zhou; Yu, Che

    2015-02-01

    The aim of the present study was to clarify the association between lipid metabolism and the atherosclerosis in early-stage chronic renal failure at the molecular level and to explore the efficacy of decorin on chronic renal failure. Sprague Dawley rats receiving 5/6 nephrectomy and Sham surgery were divided into control and experimental groups. Sprague Dawley rats receiving 5/6 nephrectomy were divided into control and experimental groups, and the experimental group was further subdivided into rats receiving treatment with fibroblasts (FBs) transfected either with empty vector and with a decorin (DCN) gene. The dynamic levels of triglyceride (TG), total cholesterol (T-Ch) and total phospholipid (T-PL) were detected on the 10th, 30th and 60th days. The body weight, blood lipid levels, renal function and renal tissue were observed after four weeks, and transforming growth factor-βl and protein expression was detected by immunohistochemistry. In total, 4 weeks after treatment, the DCN expression in the renal tissue of rats treated with DCN-transfected FBs was significantly increased compared to that in the control rats. The results showed that the levels of the three lipids in the aortic arches were slightly elevated on the 10th day compared with those in the control group, and the TG level was significantly increased on the 30th day. The levels of T-Ch, TG and T-PL in the aortic arches were significantly elevated on the 60th day. The TG and T-Ch levels in the plasma and aortic tissues of Sprague Dawley rats receiving 5/6 nephrectomy without any treatment and after receiving treatment with FBs transfected with empty vector were significantly increased compared with those in the control group. The increased T-Ch and decreased T-PL levels in the erythrocyte membrane increased the rigidity of the erythrocyte and decreased erythrocyte deformability. In conclusion, highly expressed DCN mitigated renal fibrosis and thus delayed renal failure as well as mitigating the

  6. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: an update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinosa, Gerard; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard

    2017-09-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare variant that accounts for 1% of patients with APS. Despite its low frequency, the mortality-related is very high ranging from 50% of patients in the first series to 37% in the most recent data. The current knowledge of this potential devastating entity comes from the International Registry of patients with CAPS, named CAPS Registry. Small vessel thrombosis, laboratory features of microangiopathic haemolytic anemia, and development of multisystem involvement in a very short period of time are the main characteristics of this syndrome. Clinical manifestations are due to thrombosis but also, although the evidences are indirect, to excess of proinflammatory cytokines. Therefore, treatment strategy is based on the combination of anticoagulation, glucocorticoids, plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulins, the so-called triple therapy. In refractory cases or in those with initial life-threatening situation, rituximab may be an effective option. Recently, some cases of CAPS have been effectively treated with the addition of eculizumab to the triple therapy.

  7. Quantum catastrophes: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znojil, Miloslav

    2012-11-01

    The bound-state spectrum of a Hamiltonian H is assumed real in a non-empty domain D of physical values of parameters. This means that for these parameters, H may be called crypto-Hermitian, i.e. made Hermitian via an ad hoc choice of the inner product in the physical Hilbert space of quantum bound states (i.e. via an ad hoc construction of the operator Θ called the metric). The name quantum catastrophe is then assigned to the N-tuple-exceptional-point crossing, i.e. to the scenario in which we leave the domain D along such a path that at the boundary of D, an N-plet of bound-state energies degenerates and, subsequently, complexifies. At any fixed N ⩾ 2, this process is simulated via an N × N benchmark effective matrix Hamiltonian H. It is being assigned such a closed-form metric which is made unique via an N-extrapolation-friendliness requirement. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Quantum physics with non-Hermitian operators’.

  8. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Bilateral Central Retinal Artery Occlusions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven S. Saraf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A previously healthy 22-year-old African American woman presented with bilateral vision loss associated with headache. Her ocular examination was significant for bilateral retinal arterial “boxcarring,” retinal whitening, retinal hemorrhages, and cherry red spots. She was diagnosed with bilateral central retinal artery occlusions and was hospitalized due to concomitant diagnosis of stroke and hypercoagulable state. She was also found to be in heart failure and kidney failure. Rheumatology was consulted and she was diagnosed with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in association with systemic lupus erythematosus. Approximately 7 months after presentation, the patient’s vision improved and remained stable at 20/200 and 20/80.

  9. Investigation of Effectiveness of Some Vibration-Based Techniques in Early Detection of Real-Time Fatigue Failure in Gears

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan Ozturk

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Bending fatigue crack is a dangerous and insidious mode of failure in gears. As it produces no debris in its early stages, it gives little warning during its progression, and usually results in either immediate loss of serviceability or greatly reduced power transmitting capacity. This paper presents the applications of vibration-based techniques (i.e. conventional time and frequency domain analysis, cepstrum, and continuous wavelet transform to real gear vibrations in the early detection, diagnosis and advancement monitoring of a real tooth fatigue crack and compares their detection and diagnostic capabilities on the basis of experimental results. Gear fatigue damage is achieved under heavy-loading conditions and the gearbox is allowed to run until the gears suffer badly from complete tooth breakage. It has been found that the initiation and progression of fatigue crack cannot be easily detected by conventional time and frequency domain approaches until the fault is significantly developed. On the contrary, the wavelet transform is quite sensitive to any change in gear vibration and reveals fault features earlier than other methods considered.

  10. Delayed gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging of cartilage to predict early failure of Bernese periacetabular osteotomy for hip dysplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Torin; Jessel, Rebecca; Zurakowski, David; Millis, Michael B; Kim, Young-Jo

    2006-07-01

    Hip dysplasia leads to abnormal loading of articular cartilage, which results in osteoarthritis. Pelvic osteotomies such as the Bernese periacetabular osteotomy can improve the mechanics of the joint, but the results are variable and appear to depend on the amount of preexisting arthritis. Delayed gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging of cartilage (dGEMRIC) is a technique designed to measure early arthritis, and it potentially could be used to select hips with too severe arthritis to benefit from a joint-preserving reconstructive procedure. The purpose of our study was to identify radiographic, clinical, and magnetic resonance imaging measurements that predict failure after pelvic osteotomy. We performed a cohort study of forty-seven patients undergoing a Bernese periacetabular osteotomy for the treatment of hip dysplasia. Our goal was to identify preoperative radiographic factors, such as the grade of arthritis, joint congruency, and the dGEMRIC index, that are associated with a poor outcome after osteotomy. Hips in which the osteotomy did not fail had a significant decrease in pain compared with their status preoperatively (p Bernese periacetabular osteotomy for the treatment of hip dysplasia can decrease pain and improve function in symptomatic dysplastic hips. The dGEMRIC index, as an early measure of osteoarthritis, appears to be useful for identifying poor candidates for a pelvic osteotomy. Prognostic Level II. See Instructions to Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  11. Catastrophes in Scale-Free Networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tao; WANG Bing-Hong

    2005-01-01

    @@ An alternative model about cascading occurrences caused by perturbation is established to search the mechanism because catastrophes in networks occur. We investigate the avalanche dynamics of our model on two-dimensional Euclidean lattices and scale-free networks and find that the avalanche dynamic behaviour is sensitive to the topological structure of networks. The simulation results show that the catastrophes occur much more frequently in scale-free networks than those in Euclidean lattices, and the greatest catastrophe in scale-free networks is much more serious than that in Euclidean lattices. Furthermore, we have studied how to reduce the catastrophes'degree, and have schemed out an effective strategy, called the targeted safeguard strategy for scale-free networks.

  12. Insuring catastrophes and the role of governments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Boyer

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we model the cost of providing insurance coverage against natural and man-made hazards. We propose an insurance market model that explains (1 the use of reinsurance to help finance the cost of catastrophic events and (2 the implicit (or explicit presence of government entities acting as (reinsurers of last resort. Using an economic model, we show how insurance programmes should be designed to cover the losses due to a possible catastrophic natural hazard. Our results show that the optimal structure of a reinsurance programme minimizes the cost of offering insurance protection. We also show how government intervention can reduce the cost of insurance against natural catastrophes and increase policyholders' welfare. Our paper therefore offers public policy implications as to the role and presence of government as an insurer of last resort and the minimum insurance premium necessary to cover the cost of catastrophic events.

  13. Evidence for Middle Amazonian catastrophic flooding and glaciation on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, J. Alexis P.; Gulick, Virginia C.; Baker, Victor R.; Platz, Thomas; Fairén, Alberto G.; Miyamoto, Hideaki; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Rice, James W.; Glines, Natalie

    2014-11-01

    Early geologic investigations of Mars revealed some of the largest channels in the Solar System (outflow channels), which appear to have mostly developed ∼3 byr ago. These channels have been the subject of much scientific inquiry since the 1970s and proposed formative processes included surface erosion by catastrophic floods, glaciers, debris flows and lava flows. Based on the analysis of newly acquired Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) Context (CTX, 5.15-5.91 m/pixel) and High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE, 25-50 cm/pixel) image data, we have identified a few locations contained within relatively narrow canyons of the southern circum-Chryse outflow channels that retain well-preserved decameter/hectometer-scale landform assemblages. These terrains include landforms consistent in shape, dimension and overall assemblage to those produced by catastrophic floods, and at one location, to glacial morphologies. Impact crater statistics for four of these surfaces, located within upstream, midstream and downstream outflow channel surfaces, yield an age estimate of ∼600 myr. This suggests that the southern circum-Chryse outflow channels were locally resurfaced by some of the most recent catastrophic floods on the planet, and that these floods coexisted within regional glacier environments as recently as during the Middle Amazonian.

  14. Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

    2002-03-01

    We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

  15. Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martel, M. O.; Olesen, Anne Estrup; Jørgensen, Debbie

    2016-01-01

    that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...... to noxious stimulation of the oesophagus using an experimental paradigm mimicking features and symptoms experienced by patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD)....

  16. Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Volodicheva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

  17. North Kona slump: Submarine flank failure during the early(?) tholeiitic shield stage of Hualalai Volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipman, P.W.; Coombs, M.L.

    2006-01-01

    vesicles during flowage downslope after eruption in shallow water. The glass volatile compositions suggest that the tholeiitic lavas that drape the slump blocks were erupted either (1) early during shield-stage tholeiitic volcanism prior to emergence of a large subaerial edifice, or alternatively (2) from submarine radial vents during subaerial shield-building. Because no radial vents have been documented on land or underwater for the unbuttressed flanks of any Hawaii volcano, alternative (1) is favored. In comparison to other well-documented Hawaiian slumps and landslides, North Kona structures suggest a more incipient slump event, with smaller down-slope motions and lateral displacements.

  18. Mindfulness, acceptance and catastrophizing in chronic pain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maaike J de Boer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to examine the influence of mindfulness and general psychological acceptance on pain-related catastrophizing in patients with chronic pain. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted, including 87 chronic pain patients from an academic outpatient pain center. RESULTS: The results show that general psychological acceptance (measured with the AAQ-II is a strong predictor of pain-related catastrophizing, independent of gender, age and pain intensity. Mindfulness (measured with the MAAS did not predict levels of pain-related catastrophizing. DISCUSSION: Acceptance of psychological experiences outside of pain itself is related to catastrophizing. Thus, acceptance seems to play a role in the pain experience and should be part of the treatment of chronic pain. The focus of the ACT treatment of chronic pain does not necessarily have to be on acceptance of pain per se, but may be aimed at acceptance of unwanted experiences in general. Mindfulness in the sense of "acting with awareness" is however not related to catastrophizing. Based on our research findings in comparisons with those of other authors, we recommend a broader conceptualization of mindfulness and the use of a multifaceted questionnaire for mindfulness instead of the unidimensional MAAS.

  19. The added value of mifepristone to non-surgical treatment regimens for uterine evacuation in case of early pregnancy failure: a systematic review of the literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, J. van den; Gordon, B.B.; Snijders, M.P.M.L.; Vandenbussche, F.P.H.A.; Coppus, S.F.P.J.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE(S): Early pregnancy failure (EPF) is a common complication of pregnancy. Surgical intervention carries a risk of complications and, therefore, medical treatment appears to be a safe alternative. Unfortunately, the current medical treatment with misoprostol alone has complete evacuation rat

  20. Pricing for Catastrophe Bonds Based on Expected-value Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junfei Chen

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available As the catastrophes cannot be avoided and result in huge economic losses, therefore the compensation issue for catastrophe losses become an important research topic. Catastrophe bonds can effectively disperse the catastrophe risks which mainly undertaken by the government and the insurance companies currently and focus on capital more effectively in broad capital market, therefore to be an ideal catastrophe securities product. This study adopts Expectancy Theory to supplement and improve the pricing of catastrophe bonds based on Value Theory. A model of expected utility is established to determine the conditions of the expected revenue R of catastrophe bonds. The pricing model of the value function is used to get the psychological value of R,U (R-R‾, for catastrophe bonds. Finally, the psychological value is improved by the value according to expected utility and this can more accurately evaluate catastrophe bonds at a reasonable price. This research can provide decision-making for the pricing of catastrophe bonds.

  1. Longitudinal myocardial contraction improves early during titration with metoprolol CR/XL in patients with heart failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, B; Sveälv, B Grüner; Täng, M Scharin; Mobini, R

    2002-01-01

    Objective: To investigate diastolic and systolic left ventricular recovery during titration with metoprolol CR/XL (controlled release/extended release). Design: Placebo run in, followed by an open study. Setting: University hospital. Patients: 14 patients with chronic heart failure. Interventions: Metoprolol CR/XL titrated from 12.5 mg once daily to 200 mg once daily. Main outcome measures: M mode recordings of atrioventricular (AV) plane displacement, Doppler measurement of transmitral flow and pulmonary venous flow, two dimensional ejection fraction, and measurement of venous plasma concentration of noradrenaline. Patients were investigated after 2, 4, 6, and 24 weeks of treatment. Results: A reduction of heart rate was observed on the first dose (12.5 mg once daily), from a mean (SD) of 74 (11) to 67 (11) beats/min, p < 0.05. This was accompanied by prominent effects on AV plane filling parameters, including an increase in early diastolic filling period from 87 (28) to 105 (33) ms (p < 0.05), and in the lateral AV plane fractional shortening from 8.7 (2.7)% to 10.2 (2.8)% (p < 0.05). An early trend towards improvement in global systolic left ventricular function was also seen, although this was not significant until six weeks. Ejection fraction increased from 33 (7.5)% to 38 (11)% (p < 0.05). Conclusions: First effects of left ventricular recovery during β blocker treatment were seen in recordings of longitudinal performance, as expressed by AV plane displacement. Doppler flow dynamics as well as global systolic recovery appeared several weeks later, emphasising the importance of longitudinal performance in evaluating left ventricular function. PMID:11751658

  2. Creating catastrophes in the classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Thommy

    2013-04-01

    Buildings, infrastructure and human life are being destroyed by wind and landslides. To interest and motivate pupils and to help them understand abstract knowledge, a practical experiment could be useful. These experiments will show why strong winds circulate around tropical cyclones and how fluvial geological processes affect nature and communities. The experiments are easy to set up and the equipment is not expensive. Experiment 1: Exogenic processes of water are often slow processes. This experiment will simulate water processes that can take thousands of years, in less than 40 minutes. This experiment can be presented for and understood by pupils at all levels. Letting the pupils build up the scenery will make them more curious about the course of events. During that time they will see the geomorphological genesis of landforms such as landslides, sandurs, deltas, canyons sedimentations, selective erosions. Placing small houses, bridges etc. we can lead to discussions about natural catastrophes and community planning. Material needed for the experiment is a water bucket, erosion gutter, clay (simulating rock), sand and smaller pebbles (simulating the soil), houses of "Monopoly" size and tubes. By using a table with wheels it is easy to reuse the result for other lessons. Installation of a pump can make the experiment into a closed loop system. This installation can be used for presentations outside the classroom. Experiment 2: The Coriolis Effect explains why the wind (moving objects) deflects when moving. In the northern hemisphere the deflection is clockwise and anti-clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This abstract effect is often hard for upper secondary pupils to understand. This experiment will show the effect and thus make the theory real and visible. Material needed for this experiment is a bucket, pipes, a string. At my school we had cooperation with pupils from the Industrial Technology programme who made a copper pipe construction. During the

  3. L-Arginine and Asymmetric Dimethylarginine Are Early Predictors for Survival in Septic Patients with Acute Liver Failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Brenner

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Dysfunctions of the L-arginine (L-arg/nitric-oxide (NO pathway are suspected to be important for the pathogenesis of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS in septic shock. Therefore plasma concentrations of L-arg and asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA were measured in 60 patients with septic shock, 30 surgical patients and 30 healthy volunteers using enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA kits. Plasma samples from patients with septic shock were collected at sepsis onset, and 24 h, 4 d, 7 d, 14 d and 28 d later. Samples from surgical patients were collected prior to surgery, immediately after the end of the surgical procedure as well as 24 h later and from healthy volunteers once. In comparison to healthy volunteers and surgical patients, individuals with septic shock showed significantly increased levels of ADMA, as well as a decrease in the ratio of L-arg and ADMA at all timepoints. In septic patients with an acute liver failure (ALF, plasma levels of ADMA and L-arg were significantly increased in comparison to septic patients with an intact hepatic function. In summary it can be stated, that bioavailability of NO is reduced in septic shock. Moreover, measurements of ADMA and L-arg appear to be early predictors for survival in patients with sepsis-associated ALF.

  4. Adherence to drug-refill is a useful early warning indicator of virologic and immunologic failure among HIV patients on first-line ART in South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziad El-Khatib

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Affordable strategies to prevent treatment failure on first-line regimens among HIV patients are essential for the long-term success of antiretroviral therapy (ART in sub-Saharan Africa. WHO recommends using routinely collected data such as adherence to drug-refill visits as early warning indicators. We examined the association between adherence to drug-refill visits and long-term virologic and immunologic failure among non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI recipients in South Africa. METHODS: In 2008, 456 patients on NNRTI-based ART for a median of 44 months (range 12-99 months; 1,510 person-years were enrolled in a retrospective cohort study in Soweto. Charts were reviewed for clinical characteristics before and during ART. Multivariable logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis assessed associations with virologic (two repeated VL>50 copies/ml and immunologic failure (as defined by WHO. RESULTS: After a median of 15 months on ART, 19% (n = 88 and 19% (n = 87 had failed virologically and immunologically respectively. A cumulative adherence of <95% to drug-refill visits was significantly associated with both virologic and immunologic failure (p<0.01. In the final multivariable model, risk factors for virologic failure were incomplete adherence (OR 2.8, 95%CI 1.2-6.7, and previous exposure to single-dose nevirapine or any other antiretrovirals (adj. OR 2.1, 95%CI 1.2-3.9, adjusted for age and sex. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the virologic failure rate by month 48 was 19% vs. 37% among adherent and non-adherent patients respectively (logrank p value = 0.02. CONCLUSION: One in five failed virologically after a median of 15 months on ART. Adherence to drug-refill visits works as an early warning indicator for both virologic and immunologic failure.

  5. Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David W. Grant

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

  6. Catastrophe model and its experimental verification of static loading rock system under impact load

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    According to the catastrophe model for impact buckling of static loading structures, a new catastrophe model for impact loading failure of a static loading rock system was established, and one dimension (1D) catastrophe model was analyzed. The analysis results indicate that the furcation collection where catastrophe may take place is not only decided by mechanical system itself but also relates to exterior loading, which is different from the results obtained under mono-static loading where the bifurcation collection is only determined by mechanics of the system itself and has nothing to do with exterior loading. In addition, the corresponding 1D coupled static-dynamic loading experiment is designed to verify the analysis results of catastrophe model The test is done with Instron 1342 electroservo controlled testing system, in which medium strain rate is caused by monotony rising dynamic load. The parameters are obtained combining theoretical model with experiment. The experimental and theoretical curves of critical dynamic load vs static load are rather coincided, thus the new model is proved to be correct.

  7. A simplified early-warning system for imminent landslide prediction based on failure index fragility curves developed through numerical analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ozturk

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Early-warning systems (EWSs are crucial to reduce the risk of landslide, especially where the structural measures are not fully capable of preventing the devastating impact of such an event. Furthermore, designing and successfully implementing a complete landslide EWS is a highly complex task. The main technical challenges are linked to the definition of heterogeneous material properties (geotechnical and geomechanical parameters as well as a variety of the triggering factors. In addition, real-time data processing creates a significant complexity, since data collection and numerical models for risk assessment are time consuming tasks. Therefore, uncertainties in the physical properties of a landslide together with the data management represent the two crucial deficiencies in an efficient landslide EWS. Within this study the application is explored of the concept of fragility curves to landslides; fragility curves are widely used to simulate systems response to natural hazards, i.e. floods or earthquakes. The application of fragility curves to landslide risk assessment is believed to simplify emergency risk assessment; even though it cannot substitute detailed analysis during peace-time. A simplified risk assessment technique can remove some of the unclear features and decrease data processing time. The method is based on synthetic samples which are used to define the approximate failure thresholds for landslides, taking into account the materials and the piezometric levels. The results are presented in charts. The method presented in this paper, which is called failure index fragility curve (FIFC, allows assessment of the actual real-time risk in a case study that is based on the most appropriate FIFC. The application of an FIFC to a real case is presented as an example. This method to assess the landslide risk is another step towards a more integrated dynamic approach to a potential landslide prevention system. Even if it does not define

  8. Predicting Predictable about Natural Catastrophic Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2015-04-01

    By definition, an extreme event is rare one in a series of kindred phenomena. Usually (e.g. in Geophysics), it implies investigating a small sample of case-histories with a help of delicate statistical methods and data of different quality, collected in various conditions. Many extreme events are clustered (far from independent) and follow fractal or some other "strange" distribution (far from uniform). Evidently, such an "unusual" situation complicates search and definition of reliable precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. Making forecast/prediction claims reliable and quantitatively probabilistic in the frames of the most popular objectivists' viewpoint on probability requires a long series of "yes/no" forecast/prediction outcomes, which cannot be obtained without an extended rigorous test of the candidate method. The set of errors ("success/failure" scores and space-time measure of alarms) and other information obtained in such a control test supplies us with data necessary to judge the candidate's potential as a forecast/prediction tool and, eventually, to find its improvements. This is to be done first in comparison against random guessing, which results confidence (measured in terms of statistical significance). Note that an application of the forecast/prediction tools could be very different in cases of different natural hazards, costs and benefits that determine risks, and, therefore, requires determination of different optimal strategies minimizing reliable estimates of realistic levels of accepted losses. In their turn case specific costs and benefits may suggest a modification of the forecast/prediction tools for a more adequate "optimal" application. Fortunately, the situation is not hopeless due to the state-of-the-art understanding of the complexity and non-linear dynamics of the Earth as a Physical System and pattern recognition approaches applied to available geophysical evidences, specifically, when intending to predict

  9. Relationship of Fault Geometry to Catastrophic Outflow on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davatzes, A.; Gulick, V.

    2006-12-01

    We present results from studies of large outflow channels on Mars that suggest fault morphology is a critical factor for the trapping and catastrophic release of water on Mars, resulting in large flooding events. On Earth, hot springs are commonly concentrated around fault relays, bends, and fault tips, where jointing forms in zones of concentrated stress promoting tensile failure. Examples of fault controlled hydrothermal activity have been documented in the Coso Geothermal Field in California, Southern Seismic Zone in Iceland, Waiotapu Geothermal Field in New Zealand, Killoran Fault in Ireland, and throughout the southwestern United States. On Earth, abrupt changes in the water table, as well as the formation of sand-boils and springs, are associated with earthquakes, and their spatial distribution is related to the geometry of the earthquake slip patch. A similar process may occur on Mars, where hydrothermal waters collect in highly fractured zones at fault relays, and are released catastrophically during an earthquake event. Two examples of large outflow channels on Mars, Mangala and Athabasca Valles, appear to be sourced in a relay zone. Other Martian examples show sourcing at fault bends and fault tips. Data from the instruments on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter will help us to further understand this mechanism by which large flood events may occur. High resolution images from HiRISE will be used to map these fault systems and estimate outflow rates, and data from CRISM will be used to identify regions of past high temperature fluid flow on the surface of Mars.

  10. Evolutionary Catastrophes and the Goldilocks Problem

    CERN Document Server

    Cirkovic, Milan M

    2007-01-01

    One of the mainstays of the controversial "rare Earth" hypothesis is the "Goldilocks problem" regarding various parameters describing a habitable planet, partially involving the role of mass extinctions and other catastrophic processes in biological evolution. Usually, this is construed as support for the uniqueness of the Earth's biosphere and intelligent human life. Here I argue that this is a misconstrual and that, on the contrary, observation-selection effects, when applied to catastrophic processes, make it very difficult for us to discern whether the terrestrial biosphere and evolutionary processes which created it are exceptional in the Milky Way or not. In particular, an anthropic overconfidence bias related to the temporal asymmetry of evolutionary processes appears when we try to straightforwardly estimate catastrophic risks from the past records on Earth. This agnosticism, in turn, supports the validity and significance of practical astrobiological and SETI research.

  11. Poor adhesion of fentanyl transdermal patches may mimic end-of-dosage failure after 48 hours and prompt early patch replacement in hospitalized cancer pain patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnet, Isabelle; Schacher, Sabrina; Balmer, Eva; Koeberle, Dieter; Hersberger, Kurt E

    2016-01-01

    Context Renewal of fentanyl transdermal patch (transdermal therapeutic system [TTS]) should occur every 3 days (72 hours) according to manufacturer’s guidelines. Some studies mentioned patients reporting end-of-dose failure, and thus, some authors recommend shortening the interval of application to 2 days (48 hours). However, reasons for early replacement are mostly unknown. Objectives The objectives of this study were to assess the prevalence of early replacement of fentanyl TTS in a cancer center in Basel, Switzerland, and to assess the reasons for early replacement in stationary patients. Methods We retrieved all fentanyl TTS administered in a cancer center in Basel, Switzerland, between November 11, 2011, and January 31, 2015, from the electronic medical database. Results A total of 739 patients (mean age 71.4±11.5 years, 55% women) were administered 2,250 fentanyl TTS (dosage 6–500 µg/hour). Most replacements occurred after 72 hours (61.6%) and a few after 48 hours (7.4%). Patients with early replacement after 48 hours were significantly younger (63.8 years versus 71.5 years, ppharmacists, the most often reasons for early TTS replacement were end-of-dosage pain (41.4%) and poor adhesion (31.4%). Conclusion In the absence of any physiological, pharmacological, or environmental reasons recorded in the database to explain an early replacement of fentanyl TTS, skin adhesion problems may point practical reasons and mimic end-of-dosage failure. PMID:27877065

  12. Catastrophic expenditure on medicines in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luiza, Vera Lucia; Tavares, Noemia Urruth Leão; Oliveira, Maria Auxiliadora; Arrais, Paulo Sergio Dourado; Ramos, Luiz Roberto; Pizzol, Tatiane da Silva Dal; Mengue, Sotero Serrate; Farias, Mareni Rocha; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe the magnitude of the expenditure on medicines in Brazil according to region, household size and composition in terms of residents in a situation of dependency. METHODS Population-based data from the national household survey were used, with probabilistic sample, applied between September 2013 and February 2014 in urban households. The expenditure on medicines was the main outcome of interest. The prevalence and confidence intervals (95%CI) of the outcomes were stratified according to socioeconomic classification and calculated according to the region, the number of residents dependent on income, the presence of children under five years and residents in a situation of dependency by age. RESULTS In about one of every 17 households (5.3%) catastrophic health expenditure was reported and, in 3.2%, the medicines were reported as one of the items responsible for this situation. The presence of three or more residents (3.6%) and resident in a situation of dependency (3.6%) were the ones that most reported expenditure on medicines. Southeast was the region with the lowest prevalence of expenditure on medicines. The prevalence of households with catastrophic health expenditure and on medicines in relation to the total of households showed a regressive tendency for economic classes. CONCLUSIONS Catastrophic health expenditure was present in 5.3%, and catastrophic expenditure on medicines in 3.2% of the households. Multi-person households, presence of residents in a situation of economic dependency and belonging to the class D or E had the highest proportion of catastrophic expenditure on medicines. Although the problem is important, permeated by aspects of iniquity, Brazilian policies seem to be protecting families from catastrophic expenditure on health and on medicine. PMID:27982383

  13. Loss of desmoplakin isoform I causes early onset cardiomyopathy and heart failure in a Naxos‐like syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uzumcu, A; Norgett, E E; Dindar, A; Uyguner, O; Nisli, K; Kayserili, H; Sahin, S E; Dupont, E; Severs, N J; Leigh, I M; Yuksel‐Apak, M; Kelsell, D P; Wollnik, B

    2006-01-01

    Background Desmosomes are cellular junctions important for intercellular adhesion and anchoring the intermediate filament (IF) cytoskeleton to the cell membrane. Desmoplakin (DSP) is the most abundant desmosomal protein with 2 isoforms produced by alternative splicing. Methods We describe a patient with a recessively inherited arrhythmogenic dilated cardiomyopathy with left and right ventricular involvement, epidermolytic palmoplantar keratoderma, and woolly hair. The patient showed a severe heart phenotype with an early onset and rapid progression to heart failure at 4 years of age. Results A homozygous nonsense mutation, R1267X, was found in exon 23 of the desmoplakin gene, which results in an isoform specific truncation of the larger DSPI isoform. The loss of most of the DSPI specific rod domain and C‐terminal area was confirmed by Western blotting and immunofluorescence. We further showed that the truncated DSPI transcript is unstable, leading to a loss of DSPI. DSPI is reported to be an obligate constituent of desmosomes and the only isoform present in cardiac tissue. To address this, we reviewed the expression of DSP isoforms in the heart. Our data suggest that DSPI is the major cardiac isoform but we also show that specific compartments of the heart have detectable DSPII expression. Conclusions This is the first description of a phenotype caused by a mutation affecting only one DSP isoform. Our findings emphasise the importance of desmoplakin and desmosomes in epidermal and cardiac function and additionally highlight the possibility that the different isoforms of desmoplakin may have distinct functional properties within the desmosome. PMID:16467215

  14. Early Postdischarge STOP-HF-Clinic Reduces 30-day Readmissions in Old and Frail Patients With Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacho, Cristina; Domingo, Mar; Núñez, Raquel; Lupón, Josep; Moliner, Pedro; de Antonio, Marta; González, Beatriz; Santesmases, Javier; Vela, Emili; Tor, Jordi; Bayes-Genis, Antoni

    2017-08-01

    Heart failure (HF) is associated with a high rate of readmissions within 30 days postdischarge. Strategies to lower readmission rates generally show modest results. To reduce readmission rates, we developed a STructured multidisciplinary outpatient clinic for Old and frail Postdischarge patients hospitalized for HF (STOP-HF-Clinic). This prospective all-comers study enrolled patients discharged from internal medicine or geriatric wards after HF hospitalization. The intervention involved a face-to-face early visit (within 7 days), HF nurse education, treatment titration, and intravenous medication when needed. Thirty-day readmission risk was calculated using the CORE-HF risk score. We also studied the impact of 30-day readmission burden on regional health care by comparing the readmission rate in the STOP-HF-Clinic Referral Area (∼250000 people) with that of the rest of the Catalan Health Service (CatSalut) (∼7.5 million people) during the pre-STOP-HF-Clinic (2012-2013) and post-STOP-HF-Clinic (2014-2015) time periods. From February 2014 to June 2016, 518 consecutive patients were included (age, 82 years; Barthel score, 70; Charlson index, 5.6, CORE-HF 30-day readmission risk, 26.5%). The observed all-cause 30-day readmission rate was 13.9% (47.5% relative risk reduction) and the observed HF-related 30-day readmission rate was 7.5%. The CatSalut registry included 65131 index HF admissions, with 9267 all-cause and 6686 HF-related 30-day readmissions. The 30-day readmission rate was significantly reduced in the STOP-HF-Clinic Referral Area in 2014-2015 compared with 2012-2013 (P < .001), mainly driven by fewer HF-related readmissions. The STOP-HF-Clinic, an approach that could be promptly implemented elsewhere, is a valuable intervention for reducing the global burden of early readmissions among elder and vulnerable patients with HF. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  15. Low-Level Laser Application in the Early Myocardial Infarction Stage Has No Beneficial Role in Heart Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manchini, Martha T.; Antônio, Ednei L.; Silva Junior, José Antônio; de Carvalho, Paulo de Tarso C.; Albertini, Regiane; Pereira, Fernando C.; Feliciano, Regiane; Montemor, Jairo; Vieira, Stella S.; Grandinetti, Vanessa; Yoshizaki, Amanda; Chaves, Marcio; da Silva, Móises P.; de Lima, Rafael do Nascimento; Bocalini, Danilo S.; de Melo, Bruno L.; Tucci, Paulo J. F.; Serra, Andrey J.

    2017-01-01

    Low-level laser therapy (LLLT) has been targeted as a promising approach that can mitigate post-infarction cardiac remodeling. There is some interesting evidence showing that the beneficial role of the LLLT could persist long-term even after the end of the application, but it remains to be systematically evaluated. Therefore, the present study aimed to test the hypothesis that LLLT beneficial effects in the early post-infarction cardiac remodeling could remain in overt heart failure even with the disruption of irradiations. Female Wistar rats were subjected to the coronary occlusion to induce myocardial infarction or Sham operation. A single LLLT application was carried out after 60 s and 3 days post-coronary occlusion, respectively. Echocardiography was performed 3 days and at the end of the experiment (5 weeks) to evaluate cardiac function. After the last echocardiographic examination, LV hemodynamic evaluation was performed at baseline and on sudden afterload increases. Compared with the Sham group, infarcted rats showed increased systolic and diastolic internal diameter as well as a depressed shortening fraction of LV. The only benefit of the LLLT was a higher shortening fraction after 3 days of infarction. However, treated-LLLT rats show a lower shortening fraction in the 5th week of study when compared with Sham and non-irradiated rats. A worsening of cardiac function was confirmed in the hemodynamic analysis as evidenced by the higher LV end-diastolic pressure and lower +dP/dt and −dP/dt with five weeks of study. Cardiac functional reserve was also impaired by infarction as evidenced by an attenuated response of stroke work index and cardiac output to a sudden afterload stress, without LLLT repercussions. No significant differences were found in the myocardial expression of Akt1/VEGF pathway. Collectively, these findings illustrate that LLLT improves LV systolic function in the early post-infarction cardiac remodeling. However, this beneficial effect may

  16. On a new global catastrophic ICT model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riaz, M. Tahir; Bhalerao, Dipashree M.; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2011-01-01

    of the world's population suffers from affordable ICT solutions and the presence of sufficient ICT infrastructure. The main goal of this paper is to create a framework to define catastrophic areas from an ICT point of view. QOS features like packet loss rate, delay, throughput and delivery ratio for 50 nodes...... coverage before and after calamities. This definition of catastrophic area from ICT point of view has no one tried before. Network parameters behavioural graphs are also important. This paper presents only behavioural part....

  17. On a new global catastrophic ICT model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riaz, M. Tahir; Bhalerao, Dipashree M.; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2011-01-01

    of the world's population suffers from affordable ICT solutions and the presence of sufficient ICT infrastructure. The main goal of this paper is to create a framework to define catastrophic areas from an ICT point of view. QOS features like packet loss rate, delay, throughput and delivery ratio for 50 nodes...... coverage before and after calamities. This definition of catastrophic area from ICT point of view has no one tried before. Network parameters behavioural graphs are also important. This paper presents only behavioural part....

  18. Physical limits of semiconductor laser operation: A time-resolved analysis of catastrophic optical damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ziegler, Mathias; Hempel, Martin; Larsen, Henning Engelbrecht

    2010-01-01

    The early stages of catastrophic optical damage (COD) in 808 nm emitting diode lasers are mapped by simultaneously monitoring the optical emission with a 1 ns time resolution and deriving the device temperature from thermal images. COD occurs in highly localized damage regions on a 30 to 400 ns...

  19. Host factors analysis in early failure of dental implant%影响种植体早期失败的宿主因素分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    申会

    2011-01-01

    种植修复已成为牙缺失常用的修复方法,10年成功率约达到90%,但是种植体失败的情况仍有发生。现有的研究表明:种植体失败多发生在植入后早期,而且发生早期失败的患者其晚期失败的风险也增加;但是,人们并不明确种植体早期失败的影响因素,早期失败的发生可能与宿主、种植体、术者和外科技术等多种因素有关。选择合适的患者是制定治疗计划的关键,对宿主影响因素的分析可用以指导临床,进一步提高种植的成功率。故本文就影响种植体早期失败的宿主因素作一综述。%Nowadays, the replacement of missing teeth with endosseous implants for the rehabilitation of edentulous or partially edentulous patients has become a standard of care, and the ten-year success rate is up to 90%. However, dental implants fail occasionally. Available studies indicate that dental implants failure usually occurs in the early stage, and the risk of late failure increases for the patients with early failure. However, the impact factors on the incidence of implant early failure are not definite. A variety of factors may have a potential influence on the incidence of dental implant early failure, such as host factors, character of implants, clinicians, surgical technique and soon. Proper patient selection is a key issue in treatment planning, and analysis of host factors will guide clinical practice. This review focused on the effect of host factors on implant early failure.

  20. Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burns LC

    2015-01-01

    predictor of chronic pain persisting ≥3 months following TKA in five of the studies assessed. Limitations of studies included lack of large-scale data, absence of standardized pain measurements, inadequate multivariate adjustment, such as failure to control for analgesic use and other relevant covariates, and failure to report non-significant parameter estimates. Conclusion: This study provides moderate-level evidence for pain catastrophizing as an independent predictor of chronic pain post-TKA. Directions for future research include larger, well-controlled studies with standard pain outcomes, identification of clinically-relevant catastrophizing cut-offs that predict pain outcomes, investigation of other psychosocial risk factors, and assessment of interventions aimed to reduce pain catastrophizing on chronic pain outcomes following TKA surgery. Keywords: pain catastrophizing, total knee arthroplasty, total knee replacement, knee arthroplasty, risk factors, chronic pain

  1. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome with concurrent thrombotic and hemorrhagic manifestations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangel, M L; Alghamdi, I; Contreras, G; Harrington, T; Thomas, D B; Barisoni, L; Andrews, D; Wolf, M; Asif, A; Nayer, A

    2013-07-01

    Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a distinct autoimmune prothrombotic disorder due to pathogenic autoantibodies directed against proteins that bind to phospholipids. APS is characterized by arterial and venous thrombosis and their clinical sequelae. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare and often fatal form of APS characterized by disseminated intravascular thrombosis and ischemic injury resulting in multiorgan failure. Rarely, intravascular thrombosis in CAPS is accompanied by hemorrhagic manifestations such as diffuse alveolar hemorrhage. Here, we report a 43-year-old woman who presented with anemia, acute gastroenteritis, abnormal liver function tests, bilateral pulmonary infiltrates, and a systemic inflammatory response syndrome. The patient developed respiratory failure as a result of diffuse alveolar hemorrhage followed by acute renal failure. Laboratory tests disclosed hematuria, proteinuria, and reduced platelet count. Microbiologic tests were negative. A renal biopsy demonstrated acute thrombotic microangiopathy and extensive interstitial hemorrhage. Serologic tests disclosed antinuclear antibodies and reduced serum complement C4 concentration. Coagulation studies revealed the lupus anticoagulant and autoantibodies against cardiolipin, beta 2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. High-dose glucocorticoids and plasma exchange resulted in rapid resolution of pulmonary, renal, and hematological manifestations. This rare case emphasizes that CAPS can present with concurrent thrombotic and hemorrhagic manifestations. Rapid diagnosis and treatment may result in complete recovery.

  2. Early and transient sodium-hydrogen exchanger isoform 1 inhibition attenuates subsequent cardiac hypertrophy and heart failure following coronary artery ligation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilić, Ana; Huang, Cathy X; Rajapurohitam, Venkatesh; Madwed, Jeffrey B; Karmazyn, Morris

    2014-12-01

    Na(+)/H(+) exchanger 1 (NHE-1) inhibition attenuates the hypertrophic response and heart failure in various experimental models. As the hypertrophic program is rapidly initiated following insult, we investigated whether early and transient administration of a NHE-1 inhibitor will exert salutary effects on cardiomyocyte hypertrophy or heart failure using both in vitro and in vivo approaches. Neonatal cardiomyocytes were treated with the novel, potent, and highly specific NHE-1 inhibitor BIX (N-[4-(1-acetyl-piperidin-4-yl)-3-trifluoromethyl-benzoyl]-guanidine; 100 nM) for 1 hour in the presence of 10 µM phenylephrine, after which the cells were maintained for a further 23 hours in the absence of NHE-1 inhibition. One-hour treatment with the NHE-1 inhibitor prevented phenylephrine-induced hypertrophy, which was associated with prevention of activation of calcineurin, a key component of the hypertrophic process. Experiments were then performed in rats subjected to coronary artery ligation, in which the NHE-1 inhibitor was administered immediately after infarction for a 1-week period followed by a further 5 weeks of sustained coronary artery occlusion in the absence of drug treatment. This approach significantly attenuated left ventricular hypertrophy and improved both left ventricular systolic and diastolic dysfunction, which was also associated with inhibition of calcineurin activation. Our findings indicate that early and transient administration of an NHE-1 inhibitor bestows subsequent inhibition of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy in culture as well as cardiac hypertrophy and heart failure in vivo, suggesting a critical early NHE-1-dependent initiation of the hypertrophic program. The study also suggests a preconditioning-like phenomenon in preventing hypertrophy and heart failure by early and transient NHE-1 inhibition. Copyright © 2014 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

  3. Usefulness of early diastolic mitral annular velocity to predict plasma levels of brain natriuretic peptide and transient heart failure development after device closure of atrial septal defect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masutani, Satoshi; Taketazu, Mio; Mihara, Chihiro; Mimura, Yuko; Ishido, Hirotaka; Matsunaga, Tamotsu; Kobayashi, Toshiki; Senzaki, Hideaki

    2009-12-15

    Device closure of atrial septal defect (ASD) is sometimes followed by elevation of plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), a marker of heart failure, and progression to heart failure. This study tested the hypothesis that the underlying diastolic dysfunction, assessed on tissue Doppler images (TDI) before device closure, can predict BNP level after ASD closure. The study subjects were 39 consecutive patients (age 27.5 +/- 16.3 years, range 5 to 63) who underwent device closure for ASD. Echocardiographic evaluation using TDI and 2-dimensional and pulse wave Doppler were performed, together with plasma BNP measurement 1 day before and 2 days after ASD closure. Before ASD closure, an age-dependent decrease was noted in left ventricular relaxation, assessed by early diastolic mitral annular velocity. ASD closure resulted in a decrease in early diastolic mitral annular velocity (from 14.7 to 12.3 cm/s, p linear regression identified early diastolic mitral annular velocity before ASD closure and age as independent predictors of BNP levels after ASD closure (p annular velocity developed exertional dyspnea after the procedure. In conclusion, our results indicate that TDI measurements could be useful to detect underlying diastolic dysfunction that can potentially cause heart failure after ASD closure and emphasize the importance of ASD closure at a young age before impairment of left ventricular relaxation.

  4. Thoracic aortic catastrophes : towards the endovascular solution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonker, F.H.W.

    2010-01-01

    Descending thoracic aortic catastrophes include a variety of acute pathologies of the descending thoracic aorta, which are all associated with high morbidity and mortality rates, requiring immediate intervention. For this thesis, we explored the management and outcomes of several thoracic aortic cat

  5. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I

    2014-10-01

    The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  6. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale: Development and Validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Michael J. L.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    A series of 4 studies involving 547 college students and community adults report the development of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, its validity with clinical and nonclinical samples, and its correlation with measures of related constructs. The scale provides information about heightened responses to aversive procedures or events. (SLD)

  7. Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

    2008-01-01

    Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform disor

  8. Mindfulness, Acceptance and Catastrophizing in Chronic Pain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Maaike J.; Steinhagen, Hannemike E.; Versteegen, Gerbrig J.; Struys, Michel M. R. F.; Sanderman, Robbert

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: Catastrophizing is often the primary target of the cognitive-behavioral treatment of chronic pain. Recent literature on acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) suggests an important role in the pain experience for the concepts mindfulness and acceptance. The aim of this study is to exami

  9. Extension of catastrophe theory to Dulac unfoldings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broer, HW; Naudot, [No Value; Roussarie, R; Dumortier, F; Broer, H; Mawhin, J; Vanderbauwhede, A; Lunel, SV

    2005-01-01

    We consider a perturbation of a Hamiltonian planar vector field. The bifurcation set of limit cycles is studied. If the vector field is defined in an annulus, limit cycles are in one to one correspondence to the zeros of a polynomial. Catastrophe theory is relevant for the study of the ensuing bifur

  10. Predicting nursing turnover with catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Cheryl M

    2010-09-01

    This paper is a report of a study comparing an innovative nonlinear model and a traditional linear model for accuracy in prediction of nursing turnover. An international, sustained nursing shortage creates a need to target accurately the staff population at risk for turnover. Existing linear methodology is cumbersome with the number of variables needed, while producing inadequate results. Nonlinear modelling methods offer increased simplicity and accuracy in predictability. A correlational survey with a longitudinal cohort prospective study was carried out in 2005-2006 with a convenience sample of 1033 Registered Nurses from the Midwest region of the United States of America. At time 1, 756 usable questionnaires were returned and 496 at time 2. Data analysis included analyses of a cusp catastrophe model, a cube-shaped four-dimensional figure with a top that provided a down-turning slope area (the catastrophe/cusp zone). This fluid, dynamic cusp version employed the smallest number of control and dependent variables. The exceedingly small turnover sample preempted the use of the computerized program Cuspfit; a proven quasi-quantitative methodology demonstrated 80.4% predictability in the cusp catastrophe model overall and 53.6% correct predictions of actual terminations, particularly in nurses with turnover were accurate predictor variables; job tension was not. Catastrophe models are useful in predicting nursing turnover. Future nursing researchers should act on this evidence to benefit forthcoming studies and the profession.

  11. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in obstetric practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Валерий Николаевич Запорожан

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Thus, the Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is much more common than has been assumed until now, in all patients the authors strongly recommend screening for AFA. Furthermore, eclampsia, HELLP-syndrome premature detachment of normally located placentae (PDNSP can develop in the presence of other defects of hemostasis, in particular in mutation FV Leiden, MTHFR C677T, deficiency of protein C (PC, protein S (PS. The combination of acquired thrombophilia due to APS, with genetic defects worsen hemostasis during the pathological process leading to the development of thrombotic complications. Perhaps a combination of hereditary thrombophilia and APS creates a favorable environment in which, under certain conditions, possible decompensation of the hemostatic system and the development of CAPS. Patients with APS constitute a group of very high risk of thromboembolic complications in the perioperative period. Even a minimally invasive intervention (biopsy, curettage, tooth extraction may trigger the development of CAPS. Thus, according to Erkan et al. (2003, 40% of patients develop CAPS was provoked by surgery. The main reasons for the development of thrombotic complications in connection with surgical intervention is the damage to the vessel wall, blood stasis and the abolition of indirect anticoagulants. In the study on the presence of genetic thrombophilia was found heterozygous form of FV Leiden mutation and homozygous mutation of MTHFR C677T. He was diagnosed with pregnancy 14 weeks, APS, mixed form of thrombophilia (a combination of acquisitions and multigenic thrombophilia, hyperhomocysteinemia, weighed down by obstetric and somatic history.It is very urgent and important problem remains diagnosis CAPS, which is inconceivable without the determination of AFA. The latter should be mandatory for all pregnant women with preeclampsia habitual miscarriage, Premature detachment of normally situated placenta (PDNSP, genital herpes history

  12. Risk factor analysis for early femoral failure in metal-on-metal hip resurfacing arthroplasty: the effect of bone density and body mass index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gross Thomas P

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The importance of appropriately selecting patients based on factors such as bone mineral density, body mass index, age, gender, and femoral component size has been demonstrated in many studies as an aid in decreasing the rate of revisions and improving the outcomes for patients after hip resurfacing arthroplasty (HRA; however, there are few published studies quantitatively specifying the potential risk factors that affect early femoral component failures. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the specific causes of early femoral component failures in hip resurfacing separately and more carefully in order to develop strategies to prevent these failures, rather than excluding groups of patients from this surgical procedure. Methods This retrospective study included 373 metal-on-metal HRAs performed by a single surgeon using the vascular sparing posterior minimally invasive surgical approach. The average length of follow-up was 30 ± 6 months. In order to understand the causes of early femoral failure rate, a multivariable logistic regression model was generated in order to analyze the effects of bone mineral density (T-score, gender, diagnosis, body mass index, femoral implant fixation type, age, and femoral component size. Results The average post-operative Harris hip score was 92 ± 11 points and the average post-operative UCLA score was 7 ± 2 points. There were three revisions due to femoral neck fracture and two for femoral component loosening. These occurred in two female and three male patients. In the multi-variable regression model, only T-score and body mass index showed significant effects on the failure rate of femoral components. Patients with a lower T-score and a higher body mass index had a significantly increased risk of early femoral component failure. Conclusion We recommend that dual energy x-ray absorptiometry scan T-score tests should be routinely performed on all hip resurfacing patients

  13. Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

    2015-01-01

    Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran...

  14. Environmental concerns: catastrophic events and insurance. 2. Applications of hydrocarbon risking procedures to other fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lerche, I.; Lempp, C.

    2004-04-01

    With ongoing reduction of engagement of public authorities in infrastructure development private companies have to consider their responsibility in the case of catastrophic events they must be aware of, and be able to calculate and finance, the kinds of risks that formerly were handled by the public authorities. This paper discusses the environmental costs and insurance needed in the cases of catastrophic failure of a project due either to natural causes when the project is being developed or after it is underway in an operating mode. Anthropogenic catastrophes also can occur and these, too, are considered from the viewpoint of insurance cover needed. A third sort of catastrophe can occur if regulations are changed during development of a project or after the project is in operation. In all cases a corporation involved in such projects needs to figure out how much insurance to take out against the possibility of catastrophe and also the premium it should pay. Using examples from the tunnel construction theater of operations, from oil exploration and field development, and from regulatory that can influence waste disposal procedures, this paper shows how general procedures, developed to accommodate for such risk in operating systems in the hydrocarbon area can be used almost as is in other fields and they also provide procedures for correctly allowing for catastrophic events to be included in assessing probable profitability and associated insurance needs at the same time. Numerical illustrations are given to illuminate the points being made as clearly as possible. The basic point made is that procedures developed for hydrocarbon risk assessment can be equally used, almost without change, in many other areas where risk is a concern. (author)

  15. Role of Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump and Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation in Early Graft Failure After Cardiac Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loforte, Antonio; Murana, Giacomo; Cefarelli, Mariano; Jafrancesco, Giuliano; Sabatino, Mario; Martin Suarez, Sofia; Pilato, Emanuele; Pacini, Davide; Grigioni, Francesco; Bartolomeo, Roberto Di; Marinelli, Giuseppe

    2016-08-01

    Early graft failure (EGF) is a major risk factor for death after heart transplantation (Htx). We investigated the predictive risk factors for moderate-to-severe EGF requiring an intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) circulatory support as treatment after Htx. Between January 2000 and December 2014, 412 consecutive adult patients underwent isolated Htx at our institution. Moderate and severe EGF were defined as the need for IABP and ECMO support, respectively, within 24 h after Htx. All available recipient and donor variables were analyzed to assess the risk of EGF occurrence. Overall, moderate-to-severe EGF occurred in 46 (11.1%) patients. Twenty-nine (63.04%) patients required peripheral or central ECMO support in the treatment of severe EGF and 17 (36.9%) patients required IABP support for the treatment of moderate EGF. The predictive risk factors for moderate-to-severe EGF in recipients, as assessed by logistic regression analysis, were a preoperative transpulmonary gradient > 12 mm Hg (odds ratio [OR] 5.2; P = 0.023), a preoperative inotropic score > 10 (OR 8.5; P = 0.0001), and preoperative ECMO support (OR 4.2; P = 0.012). For donors, the predictive risk factor was a donor score ≥ 17 (OR 8.3; P = 0.006). The absence of EGF was correlated with improved long-term survival: 94% at 1 year and 81% at 5 years without EGF versus 76% and 36% at 1 year (P ECMO support, respectively. In-hospital weaned and survived patients after IABP or ECMO treatment for moderate-to-severe EGF had a similar 5-year conditional survival rate as transplant patients who had not suffered EGF: 88% without EGF versus 84% with EGF treated with mechanical circulatory support devices (P = 0.08). The occurrence of EGF is a multifactorial deleterious event that depends on donor and recipient profiles. IABP and ECMO support are reliable treatment strategies, depending on the grade of EGF. Furthermore, surviving patients

  16. Beneficial effects of combined exercise training on early recovery cardiopulmonary exercise testing indices in patients with chronic heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgantas, Andreas; Dimopoulos, Stavros; Tasoulis, Athanasios; Karatzanos, Eleftherios; Pantsios, Chris; Agapitou, Varvara; Ntalianis, Argyrios; Roditis, Petros; Terrovitis, John; Nanas, Serafim

    2014-01-01

    Exercise training induces several beneficial effects in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). This study investigated the effects of high-intensity aerobic interval training (AIT) compared with combined AIT and strength training (COM) on early ventilatory and metabolic recovery pattern after symptom-limited cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in CHF patients. Stable CHF patients (N = 42; 54 ± 10 years [mean ± SD], 35 males) participated in an exercise training program for 12 weeks, 3 times per week. Participants were randomly assigned to either AIT (n = 20) or COM group (n = 22). Cardiopulmonary exercise testing was performed before and after completion of the program. Primary measurements included absolute and percentage difference of oxygen uptake, carbon dioxide output, minute ventilation ((Equation is included in full-text article.)E), tidal volume (VT), respiratory rate, and the first-degree slope of oxygen uptake ((Equation is included in full-text article.)O2/t slope) and carbon dioxide output ((Equation is included in full-text article.)CO2/t slope) during the first minute of recovery after maximal exercise. The COM group had a greater improvement in the absolute and the percentage difference of (Equation is included in full-text article.)E (P = .03 and P = .04, respectively) and respiratory rate (P = .02 and P = .01, respectively) during the first minute of recovery period after exercise compared with the AIT group alone. No significant changes were noted for VT measurements. A significant increase in (Equation is included in full-text article.)CO2/t slope was observed in COM compared with the AIT group (P = .01). There was a trend for a greater increase in (Equation is included in full-text article.)O2/t slope in the COM group (P = .07). The addition of strength training to AIT induces significant beneficial effects in terms of ventilatory and metabolic recovery kinetics than AIT alone in CHF patients, possibly indicating greater ventilatory

  17. Personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in young adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.E.H.M. Muris (Peter); C.M.G. Meesters (Cor); M.F.C.M. Van Den Hout (Mari F. C. M.); S. Wessels (Sylvia); I.H.A. Franken (Ingmar); E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractPain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale f

  18. The EARLY ALLIANCE prevention trial: an integrated set of interventions to promote competence and reduce risk for conduct disorder, substance abuse, and school failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumas, J E; Prinz, R J; Smith, E P; Laughlin, J

    1999-03-01

    Describes the EARLY ALLIANCE interventions, an integrated set of four programs designed to promote competence and reduce risk for early-onset conduct disorder, substance abuse, and school failure. These interventions are evaluated as part of a prevention trial that begins at school entry and targets child functioning and socializing practices across multiple contexts (school, peer group, family) and multiple domains (affective, social, and achievement coping-competence). The paper presents the conceptual foundation of the four interventions, including a synopsis of the risk and protective factors associated with conduct disorder and related outcomes, and of the coping-competence model driving EARLY ALLIANCE. The developmental rationale, intended impact, and procedures are described for each intervention: a universally administered classroom program and indicated, peer, reading-mentoring, and family programs. Interventions are currently being tested in a prevention trial, which is briefly summarized.

  19. Does the standard vs piggyback surgical technique affect the development of early acute renal failure after orthotopic liver transplantation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabezuelo, J B; Ramirez, P; Acosta, F; Torres, D; Sansano, T; Pons, J A; Bru, M; Montoya, M; Rios, A; Sánchez Bueno, F; Robles, R; Parrilla, P

    2003-08-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of the surgical technique on postoperative renal function during the first week after liver transplantation (OLT). We performed a retrospective study of 184 consecutive OLT. Criteria for acute renal failure were: serum creatinine >1.5 mg/dL, an increase by 50% in the baseline serum creatinine, or oliguria requiring renal replacement therapy. The distribution of patients according to the surgical technique was: standard (n=84), venovenous bypass (n=20), and piggyback (n=80). Other variables analyzed were: intraoperative requirement for blood products, treatment with adrenergic agonists, intraoperative complications, and postreperfusion syndrome. Univariate analysis showed the following parameters to be significantly related to postoperative renal failure: intraoperative fresh frozen plasma and cryoprecipitate requirements, intraoperative complications, postreperfusion syndrome, need for noradrenaline or dobutamine, standard surgical technique versus piggyback (39% vs 18%, P20 U cryoprecipitate requirement (OR=1.04, P=.01). In conclusion, compared with the piggyback technique, the standard surgical technique appears to be an independent risk factor for postoperative acute renal failure. When venovenous bypass is used in patients who do not tolerate trial clamping of inferior vena cava, it does not reduce the incidence of postoperative renal failure. Finally, the piggyback technique significantly reduces the probability of acute renal failure after liver transplantation.

  20. Collapsed Shape of Shallow Unlined Tunnels Based on Functional Catastrophe Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengping Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the collapse mechanisms and possible collapsing block shapes of shallow unlined tunnels under conditions of plane strain. The analysis is performed following the framework from a branch of catastrophe theory, functional catastrophe theory. First, the basic principles of functional catastrophe theory are introduced. Then, an analytical solution for the shape curve of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel is derived using functional catastrophe theory based on the nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion. The effects of the rock mass parameters of the proposed method on the shape and weight of the collapsing block are examined. Moreover, a critical cover depth expression to classify deep and shallow tunnels is proposed. The analytical results are consistent with those obtained by numerical simulation using the particle flow code, demonstrating the validity of the proposed analytical method. The obtained formulas can be used to predict the height and width of the collapsing block of a shallow unlined tunnel and to provide a direct estimate of the overburden on the tunnel lining. The obtained formulas can be easily used by tunnel engineers and researchers due to their simplicity.

  1. Fitting the Cusp Catastrophe in R: A cusp Package Primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul P. P. P. Grasman

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Of the seven elementary catastrophes in catastrophe theory, the “cusp” model is the most widely applied. Most applications are however qualitative. Quantitative techniques for catastrophe modeling have been developed, but so far the limited availability of flexible software has hindered quantitative assessment. We present a package that implements and extends the method of Cobb (Cobb and Watson 1980; Cobb, Koppstein, and Chen 1983, and makes it easy to quantitatively fit and compare different cusp catastrophe models in a statistically principled way. After a short introduction to the cusp catastrophe, we demonstrate the package with two instructive examples.

  2. Recent catastrophic landslides and mitigation in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Increasing population density and development of mountainous terrain have brought human settlements within reach of landslide hazards.In recent years,due to the shortening of return period for severe natural events such as heavy rainfall,snowline retreating,great earthquake together with human activities,catastrophic landslides happened more frequently than before,resulting in large-scale casualties due to the increasing occurrences of rapid long-runout rock avalanches,especially in China.This paper present...

  3. Early cardiac failure in a child with Becker muscular dystrophy is due to an abnormally low amount of dystrophin transcript lacking exon 13.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishigaki, C; Patria, S Y; Nishio, H; Yoshioka, A; Matsuo, M

    1997-12-01

    Two Japanese brothers with Becker muscular dystrophy were shown by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and cDNA sequence analysis to produce a dystrophin gene transcript lacking a single exon: that is, number 13. Despite having the same deletion mutation, the brothers showed clearly different clinical phenotypes: the younger brother developed cardiac failure at the age of nine, while the elder brother was asymptomatic. As alternative splicing was not responsible for this clinical difference, the amount of dystrophin transcript was examined by using reverse transcription semi-nested and parallel PCR. The results showed that the amount of the dystrophin transcript in the younger brother was 20% of that of the elder brother. This finding suggested that lesser amount of dystrophin transcript in the younger brother was responsible for the early onset of cardiac failure. This would represent a novel molecular mechanism for dystrophinopathy.

  4. Performance studies – the theory of catastrophes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad Wojnowski

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The author of Performatyka – teoria katastrof? [“Performance studies – the theory of catastrophes?”], which is a cross-sectional investigation into performance studies, tracks the trains of thought about catastrophes in different theories of performativity, ranging from J. L. Austin’s to Jon McKenzie’s ideas. Of particular interest is how particular theoreticians integrate the term ‘catastrophe’ into their conceptual frameworks and how they evaluate it. By criticizing the approach taken by Judith Butler, who postulates “melancholic performance studies”, which brings to mind Adorno’s idea that is explicated in Minima Moralia (traurige Wissenschaft, the author tries to show how we can productively use Austin’s theses that are presented in the first chapters of his famous How to Do Things with Words. In the author’s opinion, Austin allows us to approach communicational catastrophes from a different perspective, which is often forgotten, i.e. of the functioning of contextual systems. It is shown that the tension between felicity and infelicity may be at the core of the popularity of performativity which is understood as a tool for researching contemporary cultural phenomena.

  5. Downward catastrophe of solar magnetic flux ropes

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Quanhao; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

    2016-01-01

    2.5D time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free. The system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Secondly, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by a jump of a solution from the u...

  6. Prediction of Catastrophes: an experimental model

    CERN Document Server

    Peters, Randall D; Pomeau, Yves

    2012-01-01

    Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time scales involved, an experimental approach is often difficult, not to say impossible, however desirable it could be. Described in this article is a "laboratory" setup that yields data of a type that is amenable to theoretical methods of prediction. Observations are made of a critical slowing down in the noisy signal of a solder wire creeping under constant stress. This effect is shown to be a fair signal of the forthcoming catastrophe in both of two dynamical models. The first is an "abstract" model in which a time dependent quantity drifts slowly but makes quick jumps from time to time. The second is a realistic physical model for the collective motion of dislocations (the Ananthakrishna set of equations for creep). Hope thus exists that similar changes in the response to ...

  7. Catastrophizing and symptoms of sleep disturbances in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Alice M; Noone, Deirdre M; Eley, Thalia C; Harvey, Allison G

    2010-03-01

    Catastrophizing about sleeplessness is a cognitive process associated with sleep disturbance in adults. This study aimed to (1) examine whether children catastrophize about the consequences of not sleeping; (2) define the topics that children catastrophize about; (3) assess whether there is a link between catastrophizing and sleep disturbance in children; and (4) examine whether an association between catastrophizing and sleep in children is mediated by anxiety and depression symptoms. Children completed the sleep self-report and a catastrophizing interview. Testing took place in two inner-city schools in London, UK and participants comprised 123 children aged between 8 and 10 years (49% male). Thirty-four (28%) participants reported concerns in response to the catastrophizing questionnaire. The main topics being catastrophized were concerns about sleep, physiological issues and one's own emotions. Catastrophes predicted sleep disturbance after controlling for age and sex (beta = 0.35, P catastrophizing on sleep. A proportion of children catastrophized about the consequences of sleeplessness and this was associated with sleep disturbance, an association which was mediated through anxiety and depression symptoms.

  8. Fire phenomena and nonlinearity (II). Catastrophic fire dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xie, Z. [University of Science and Technology, Hefei (China). State Key Laboratory of Fire Science

    2000-09-01

    As one of the most important non-linear mechanisms to cause fire or exacerbate fire disaster, there is a great deal of catastrophe behaviours existing in fire processes. The main tasks of the study of catastrophic fire dynamics are: 1) analysis of the catastrophe mechanisms of discontinuity behaviours in fire systems; 2) investigation of the controlling methods of discontinuity behaviours of fire system; 3) qualitative analysis of the dynamical characteristics of fire systems; and 4) catastrophe classifying of discontinuity phenomena in fire system. The other disciplines, such as physics, chemistry, biology, geoscience, astronomy, or even social sciences (for instance, political, economics, strategics and management science), may also take the similar method to establish the corresponding branch discipline of catastrophe science and catastrophe classification method. It is pointed out that an ignition behaviour of the uniform temperature thermal explosion system under the control of radiation has cusp catastrophe mechanism. 10 refs., 3 figs.

  9. Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M

    2016-01-01

    This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's (Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A332, 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

  10. Stereotactic body radiation therapy for the treatment of early-stage minimally invasive adenocarcinoma or adenocarcnioma in situ (formerly bronchioloalveolar carcinoma: a patterns of failure analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badiyan Shahed N

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Ongoing prospective trials exploring stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT for early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC often exclude minimally invasive adenocarcinoma or adenocarcnioma in situ, formerly bronchioloalveolar carcinoma (BAC, due to concerns for accurate target delineation on CT. We performed a patterns of failure analysis to compare outcomes between BAC and other NSCLC subtypes. Methods One hundred twenty patients with early stage NSCLC were treated with SBRT from 2004–2009. Pathologic confirmation of NSCLC was obtained in 97 patients. Radiotherapy was delivered according to RTOG guidelines. The log-rank test was used to compare outcomes between BAC and other NSCLC. Results Median follow-up was 29 months. The median SBRT dose was 5400 cGy. Thirteen patients had radiographically diagnosed BAC and five patients had biopsy confirmed BAC, of which two had both. The three-year local control was 100% for biopsy-proven or radiographically diagnosed BAC (n = 18 and 86% for all other NSCLC subtypes (n = 102 (p = 0.13. Likewise, no significant difference was detected between BAC and other NSCLC for 3-year regional failure (12% vs. 20%, p = 0.45, progression-free survival (57.6% vs. 53.5%, p = 0.84 or overall survival (35% vs. 47%, p = 0.66. There was a trend towards lower three-year rates of freedom from distant failure in patients with any diagnosis of BAC compared to those without (26% vs. 38%, p = 0.053. Conclusions Compared to other NSCLC subtypes, BAC appears to have similar patterns of failure and survival after treatment with SBRT, however there may be an increased risk of distant metastases with BAC. RTOG guideline-based target delineation provides encouraging local control rates for patients with BAC.

  11. Reno-invasive fungal infection presenting as acute renal failure: importance of renal biopsy for early diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranjan, Priyadarshi; Chipde, Saurabh Sudhir; Vashistha, Saurabh; Kumari, Neeraj; Kapoor, Rakesh

    2014-11-01

    Renal zygomycosis, caused by invasive fungi, is a rare and potentially fatal infection. The patient usually presents with non-specific symptoms and renal failure. A 34-year-old male non-diabetic and without any predisposing factors for systemic fungal infection presented to the emergency department with diffuse abdominal pain, high-grade fever and acute renal failure with a serum creatinine of 6.5. A computed tomography showed bilateral diffuse globular nephromegaly. A urine smear for fungal examination showed right angle branching hyphae and kidney biopsy showed fungal hyphae within the glomeruli, tubules and interstitium. Although radiological investigations can give us a clue, the definitive diagnosis can only be made by kidney biopsy. A high index of suspicion and timely diagnosis is important for a proper management.

  12. The EARLY ALLIANCE prevention trial: a dual design to test reduction of risk for conduct problems, substance abuse, and school failure in childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinz, R J; Dumas, J E; Smith, E P; Laughlin, J E

    2000-06-01

    This paper describes a preventive intervention trial called EARLY ALLIANCE which is aimed at reducing risk for three adverse outcomes in childhood and adolescence: conduct problems, substance abuse, and school failure. The structure of the prevention trial is unique because two linked designs are being implemented concurrently. The primary design focuses on children at elevated risk for adverse outcomes, and compares a targeted, multicontextual preventive intervention with family, classroom, peer relational, and academic components to a universal, schoolwide preventive intervention that emphasizes peaceful conflict management and serves as a "usual care" control condition. The secondary design focuses on children at lower risk for adverse outcomes and compares a universally administered classroom program to the control condition. The paper describes the theoretical foundation for EARLY ALLIANCE, the goals of the prevention trial, the rationale for design choices, and the methods employed.

  13. Error and repair catastrophes: A two-dimensional phase diagram in the quasispecies model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tannenbaum, Emmanuel; Shakhnovich, Eugene I.

    2004-01-01

    This paper develops a two-gene, single fitness peak model for determining the equilibrium distribution of genotypes in a unicellular population which is capable of genetic damage repair. The first gene, denoted by σvia, yields a viable organism with first-order growth rate constant k>1 if it is equal to some target “master” sequence σvia,0. The second gene, denoted by σrep, yields an organism capable of genetic repair if it is equal to some target “master” sequence σrep,0. This model is analytically solvable in the limit of infinite sequence length, and gives an equilibrium distribution which depends on μ≡Lɛ, the product of sequence length and per base pair replication error probability, and ɛr, the probability of repair failure per base pair. The equilibrium distribution is shown to exist in one of the three possible “phases.” In the first phase, the population is localized about the viability and repairing master sequences. As ɛr exceeds the fraction of deleterious mutations, the population undergoes a “repair” catastrophe, in which the equilibrium distribution is still localized about the viability master sequence, but is spread ergodically over the sequence subspace defined by the repair gene. Below the repair catastrophe, the distribution undergoes the error catastrophe when μ exceeds ln k/ɛr, while above the repair catastrophe, the distribution undergoes the error catastrophe when μ exceeds ln k/fdel, where fdel denotes the fraction of deleterious mutations.

  14. Infarct Size, Shock, and Heart Failure: Does Reperfusion Strategy Matter in Early Presenting Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shavadia, Jay; Zheng, Yinggan; Dianati Maleki, Neda; Huber, Kurt; Halvorsen, Sigrun; Goldstein, Patrick; Gershlick, Anthony H; Wilcox, Robert; Van de Werf, Frans; Armstrong, Paul W

    2015-08-24

    A pharmacoinvasive (PI) strategy for early presenting ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction nominally reduced 30-day cardiogenic shock and congestive heart failure compared with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). We evaluated whether infarct size (IS) was related to this finding. Using the peak cardiac biomarker in patients randomized to PI versus PPCI within the Strategic Reperfusion Early After Myocardial Infarction (STREAM) trial, IS was divided into 3 groups: small (≤2 times the upper limit normal [ULN]), medium (>2 to ≤5 times the upper limit normal) and large (>5 times the upper limit normal). The association between IS and 30-day shock and congestive heart failure was subsequently examined. Data on 1701 of 1892 (89.9%) patients randomized to PI (n=853, 50.1%) versus PPCI (n=848, 49.9%) within STREAM were evaluated. A higher proportion of PPCI patients had a large IS (PI versus PPCI: small, 49.8% versus 50.2%; medium, 56.9% versus 43.1%; large, 48.4% versus 51.6%; P=0.035), despite comparable intergroup ischemic times for each reperfusion strategy. As IS increased, a parallel increment in shock and congestive heart failure occurred in both treatment arms, except for the small IS group. The difference in shock and congestive heart failure in the small IS group (4.4% versus 11.6%, P=0.026) in favor of PI likely relates to higher rates of aborted myocardial infarction with the PI strategy (72.7% versus 54.3%, P=0.005). After adjustment, a trend favoring PI persisted in this subgroup (relative risk 0.40, 95% CI 0.15 to 1.06, P=0.064); no difference in treatment-related outcomes was evident in the other 2 groups. A PI strategy appears to alter the pattern of IS after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, resulting in more medium and fewer large infarcts compared with PPCI. Despite a comparable number of small infarcts, PI patients in this group had more aborted myocardial infarctions and less 30-day shock and congestive heart failure

  15. 机动泵早期失效研究及改进%Research and Improvement of Early Failure for Motored Pump

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王爱军

    2015-01-01

    Motored pump is small super-high pressure hydraulic pump station consisted of hydraulic pump driven by the gasoline engine. It mainly applied in the railway, electric power, chemical, machinery and other industries to provide hydraulic power source. In practical appli-cations, because temperature rapidly rise and vibration is larger , which cause early failure of motored pump and seriously influence applica-tions in industries. This paper focuses on the research of early failure and low life for motored pump, put forward the corrective measures from the hydraulic principle, structure design to greatly improve the reliability of motored pump.%机动泵是由汽油机驱动液压泵组成的小型超高压液压泵站,主要应用于铁路、电力、化工、机械等行业,提供液压动力源。在实际应用中,由于机动泵温升快、振动大造成早期失效,严重影响在各行业中的应用。该文重点对机动泵的早期失效、寿命低进行研究,从液压原理、结构设计提出改进措施并实际应用,大大提高机动泵的可靠性。

  16. Catastrophic volcanic collapse: relation to hydrothermal processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, D L; Williams, S N

    1993-06-18

    Catastrophic volcanic collapse, without precursory magmatic activity, is characteristic of many volcanic disasters. The extent and locations of hydrothermal discharges at Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia, suggest that at many volcanoes collapse may result from the interactions between hydrothermal fluids and the volcanic edifice. Rock dissolution and hydrothermal mineral alteration, combined with physical triggers such as earth-quakes, can produce volcanic collapse. Hot spring water compositions, residence times, and flow paths through faults were used to model potential collapse at Ruiz. Caldera dimensions, deposits, and alteration mineral volumes are consistent with parameters observed at other volcanoes.

  17. Responses to catastrophic AGI risk: a survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotala, Kaj; Yampolskiy, Roman V.

    2015-01-01

    Many researchers have argued that humanity will create artificial general intelligence (AGI) within the next twenty to one hundred years. It has been suggested that AGI may inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale (‘catastrophic risk’). After summarizing the arguments for why AGI may pose such a risk, we review the field's proposed responses to AGI risk. We consider societal proposals, proposals for external constraints on AGI behaviors and proposals for creating AGIs that are safe due to their internal design.

  18. Bladder Pneumatosis From a Catastrophic Vascular Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian J. Cooke

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Air within the bladder wall, or bladder pneumatosis, is a very rare finding typically resulting from an infectious etiology, as in emphysematous cystitis (EC. However, there have been reports of bladder pneumatosis occurring without clear infectious origins. We present a case of a female patient found to have concurrent bladder and ileal pneumatosis secondary to a catastrophic vascular event. Prompt recognition of non-infectious etiologies of bladder pneumatosis is essential as this distinction may dramatically alter clinical decision-making.

  19. Multiple Sclerosis and Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juyani, Yaser; Hamedi, Dorsa; Hosseini Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe; Qasham, Maryam

    2016-01-01

    Background: There are many disabling medical conditions which can result in catastrophic health expenditure. Multiple Sclerosis is one of the most costly medical conditions through the world which encounter families to the catastrophic health expenditures. This study aims to investigate on what extent Multiple sclerosis patients face catastrophic costs. Method: This study was carried out in Ahvaz, Iran (2014). The study population included households that at least one of their members suffers from MS. To analyze data, Logit regression model was employed by using the default software STATA12. Results: 3.37% of families were encountered with catastrophic costs. Important variables including brand of drug, housing, income and health insurance were significantly correlated with catastrophic expenditure. Conclusions: This study suggests that although a small proportion of MS patients met the catastrophic health expenditure, mechanisms that pool risk and cost (e.g. health insurance) are required to protect them and improve financial and access equity in health care.

  20. Bankruptcy by catastrophes for major multi-nationals: stock exchange sensitivity for three catastrophes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Gulijk, C.; Ale, B.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of major catastrophes have on stock exchange values for the major multi-nationals. The paper demonstrates that the Sharpe analysis is more sensitive in identifying effects than just following the daily stock values for assessing market response. It was found that m

  1. Presidential Address: Catastrophe Theory and Catastrophes in China's Civil Service Examinations. (Part 2).

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Costa, Ayres

    1991-01-01

    Analyzes the evolution of Chinese national examinations with the "catastrophe" model. Goals, content, form, and process of exams were influenced by social and political forces. Competence over 4,000 years of Chinese history was defined as military prowess, Confucian-style scholarship, Western-style military expertise, proletarian…

  2. The role of intracellular high-mobility group box 1 in the early activation of Kupffer cells and the development of Con A-induced acute liver failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qiao; Liu, Yanning; Shi, Yu; Zheng, Min; He, Jiliang; Chen, Zhi

    2013-10-01

    Acute liver failure (ALF) is a highly complex syndrome characterized by devastating activation of early activation of Kupffer cells (KCs) has been implicated in the pathogenesis of ALF. However, the factors regulating KC early activation are virtually unexplored. The aim of present study was to determine the role of the intracellular high-mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) in modulating the early activation of KCs during ALF. The intravenous injection of Concanavalin A (Con A) was used to establish a mouse model of ALF. The dynamic pro-inflammatory properties and MHC II expression of KCs were measured by qRT-PCR and flow cytometry. HMGB1 expression in KCs was measured by qRT-PCR and Western blotting. The immunofluorescence was implemented to determine the relocation of HMGB1 in KCs, and the siRNA against HMGB1 was utilized to assess the impact of HMGB1 on KC pro-inflammatory properties. The peak of pro-inflammatory cytokines production and MHC II expression in KCs appeared at the early stage of ALF. The up-regulation of HMGB1 expression and the translocation of HMGB1 in KCs were in parallel with the early activation of KCs. The blockade of intracellular HMGB1 expression caused by siRNA significantly inhibited the production of KC-derived pro-inflammatory cytokines, and led to a down-regulation of MAP kinase activation in KCs. The self-derived HMGB1 is an "early alarmin" of KC activation during Con A-induced ALF. HMGB1 might be a potential target for cell-specific strategy in ALF.

  3. Personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in young adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Muris, Peter; Meesters, Cor; van den Hout, Mari F. C. M.; Wessels, Sylvia; Franken, Ingmar; Rassin, Eric

    2007-01-01

    textabstractPain catastrophizing is generally viewed as an important cognitive factor underlying chronic pain. The present study examined personality and temperament correlates of pain catastrophizing in a sample of young adolescents (N = 132). Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children, as well as scales for measuring sensitivity of the behavioral inhibition and behavioral activation systems (BIS-BAS), and various reactive and regulative temperament traits. Results de...

  4. Mutation accumulation and the catastrophic senescence of Pacific salmon

    CERN Document Server

    Penna, T J P; Stauffer, D; Stauffer, Dietrich

    1995-01-01

    The bit-string model of biological aging is used to simulate the catastrophic senescence of Pacific Salmon. We have shown that reproduction occuring only once and at a fixed age is the only ingredient needed to explain the catastrophic senescence according the mutation accumulation theory. Several results are presented, some of them with up to 10^8 fishes, showing how the survival rates in catastrophic senescence are affected by changes in the parameters of the model.

  5. Early

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamel Abd Elaziz Mohamed

    2014-04-01

    Conclusion: Early PDT is recommended for patients who require prolonged tracheal intubation in the ICU as outcomes like the duration of mechanical ventilation length of ICU stay and hospital stay were significantly shorter in early tracheostomy.

  6. Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ballengee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

  7. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles D Brummitt

    Full Text Available We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe, causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  8. Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

  9. Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

    2013-10-01

    Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

  10. Inside Money, Procyclical Leverage, and Banking Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brummitt, Charles D.; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J.

    2014-01-01

    We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency. PMID:25136959

  11. 5. Nonmalignant diseases after the Chernobyl catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yablokov, Alexey V

    2009-11-01

    This section describes the spectrum and the scale of the nonmalignant diseases that have been found among exposed populations. Adverse effects as a result of Chernobyl irradiation have been found in every group that has been studied. Brain damage has been found in individuals directly exposed--liquidators and those living in the contaminated territories, as well as in their offspring. Premature cataracts; tooth and mouth abnormalities; and blood, lymphatic, heart, lung, gastrointestinal, urologic, bone, and skin diseases afflict and impair people, young and old alike. Endocrine dysfunction, particularly thyroid disease, is far more common than might be expected, with some 1,000 cases of thyroid dysfunction for every case of thyroid cancer, a marked increase after the catastrophe. There are genetic damage and birth defects especially in children of liquidators and in children born in areas with high levels of radioisotope contamination. Immunological abnormalities and increases in viral, bacterial, and parasitic diseases are rife among individuals in the heavily contaminated areas. For more than 20 years, overall morbidity has remained high in those exposed to the irradiation released by Chernobyl. One cannot give credence to the explanation that these numbers are due solely to socioeconomic factors. The negative health consequences of the catastrophe are amply documented in this chapter and concern millions of people.

  12. Of cuts and cracks: data analytics on constrained graphs for early prediction of failure in cementitious materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahagalage, Sanath; Tordesillas, Antoinette; Nitka, Michał; Tejchman, Jacek

    2017-06-01

    Using data from discrete element simulations, we develop a data analytics approach using network flow theory to study force transmission and failure in a `dog-bone' concrete specimen submitted to uniaxial tension. With this approach, we establish the extent to which the bottlenecks, i.e., a subset of contacts that impedes flow and are prone to becoming overloaded, can predict the location of the ultimate macro-crack. At the heart of this analysis is a capacity function that quantifies, in relative terms, the maximum force that can be transmitted through the different contacts or edges in the network. Here we set this function to be solely governed by the size of the contact area between the deformable spherical grains. During all the initial stages of the loading history, when no bonds are broken, we find the bottlenecks coincide consistently with, and therefore predict, the location of the crack that later forms in the failure regime after peak force. When bonds do start to break, they are spread throughout the specimen: in, near, and far from, the bottlenecks. In one stage leading up to peak force, bonds collectively break in the lower portion of the specimen, momentarily shifting the bottlenecks to this location. Just before and around peak force, however, the bottlenecks return to their original location and remain there until the macro-crack emerges right along the bottlenecks.

  13. Of cuts and cracks: data analytics on constrained graphs for early prediction of failure in cementitious materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahagalage Sanath

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Using data from discrete element simulations, we develop a data analytics approach using network flow theory to study force transmission and failure in a ‘dog-bone’ concrete specimen submitted to uniaxial tension. With this approach, we establish the extent to which the bottlenecks, i.e., a subset of contacts that impedes flow and are prone to becoming overloaded, can predict the location of the ultimate macro-crack. At the heart of this analysis is a capacity function that quantifies, in relative terms, the maximum force that can be transmitted through the different contacts or edges in the network. Here we set this function to be solely governed by the size of the contact area between the deformable spherical grains. During all the initial stages of the loading history, when no bonds are broken, we find the bottlenecks coincide consistently with, and therefore predict, the location of the crack that later forms in the failure regime after peak force. When bonds do start to break, they are spread throughout the specimen: in, near, and far from, the bottlenecks. In one stage leading up to peak force, bonds collectively break in the lower portion of the specimen, momentarily shifting the bottlenecks to this location. Just before and around peak force, however, the bottlenecks return to their original location and remain there until the macro-crack emerges right along the bottlenecks.

  14. Probability Elicitation to Inform Early Health Economic Evaluations of New Medical Technologies : A Case Study in Heart Failure Disease Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cao, Qi; Postmus, Douwe; Hillege, Hans L.; Buskens, Erik

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: Early estimates of the commercial headroom available to a new medical device can assist producers of health technology in making appropriate product investment decisions. The purpose of this study was to illustrate how this quantity can be captured probabilistically by combining probabil

  15. [2016 review on catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costedoat-Chalumeau, Nathalie; Coutte, Laetitia; Le Guern, Véronique; Morel, Nathalie; Leroux, Gaelle; Paule, Romain; Mouthon, Luc; Piette, Jean-Charles

    2016-12-01

    The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) develops in at least 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, either primary or associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. CAPS reveals the antiphospholipid syndrome in about 50% of cases. The CAPS is characterized by rapidly-progressive widespread thromboses mainly affecting the microvasculature in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies. In a few days, the patients develop multiorgan failure with renal insufficiency with severe hypertension, pulmonary, cerebral, cardiac, digestive and/or cutaneous involvement. The vital prognosis is frequently engaged. CAPS is often precipitated by infectious diseases, surgical procedures and/or withdrawal or modification of the anticoagulation. CAPS overall mortality rate has decreased and is currently below 30%. The main differential diagnoses are other thrombotic microangiopathies, and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. The treatment of CAPS consists of the association of anticoagulation and steroids, plus plasma exchange and/or intravenous immunoglobulins. Cyclophosphamide is added only in patients with active systemic lupus erythematosus. The potential contribution of some additional therapies (rituximab, eculizumab or sirolimus) needs to be assessed. The prevention of CAPS is essential and is based upon the adequate management of the perioperative period when surgery cannot be avoided, the prompt treatment and the prevention with immunization of infections and the education of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome, especially for the management of oral anticoagulants.

  16. Stunting at birth: recognition of early-life linear growth failure in the western highlands of Guatemala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomons, Noel W; Vossenaar, Marieke; Chomat, Anne-Marie; Doak, Colleen M; Koski, Kristine G; Scott, Marilyn E

    2015-07-01

    Measurements of length at birth, or in the neonatal period, are challenging to obtain and often discounted for lack of validity. Hence, classical 'under-5' stunting rates have been derived from surveys on children from 6 to 59 months of age. Guatemala has a high prevalence of stunting (49.8%), but the age of onset of growth failure is not clearly defined. The objective of the study was to assess length-for-age within the first 1.5 months of life among Guatemalan infants. As part of a cross-sectional observational study, supine length was measured in young infants. Mothers' height was measured. Length-for-age Z-scores (HAZ) were generated and stunting was defined as HAZ <-2 using WHO growth standards. Eight rural, indigenous Mam-Mayan villages (n 200, 100% of Mayan indigenous origin) and an urban clinic of Quetzaltenango (n 106, 27% of Mayan indigenous origin), Guatemala. Three hundred and six newborns with a median age of 19 d. The median rural HAZ was -1.56 and prevalence of stunting was 38%; the respective urban values were -1.41 and 25%. Linear regression revealed no relationship between infant age and HAZ (r = 0.101, r(2) = 0.010, P = 0.077). Maternal height explained 3% of the variability in HAZ (r = 0.171, r(2) = 0.029, P = 0.003). Stunting must be carried over from in utero growth retardation in short-stature Guatemalan mothers. As linear growth failure in this setting begins in utero, its prevention must be linked to maternal care strategies during gestation, or even before. A focus on maternal nutrition and health in an intergenerational dimension is needed to reduce its prevalence.

  17. Failure modes of lead/acid batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culpin, B.; Rand, D. A. J.

    The delivery and storage of electrical energy in lead/acid batteries via the conversion of lead dioxide and lead to, and from, lead sulphate is deceptively simple. In fact, battery performance depends upon the cell design, the materials of construction, a complex interplay between the multitudinous parameters involved in plate preparation, the chemical composition/structure of the active materials, and the duty/conditions of battery operation. It is not surprising, therefore, that the factors responsible for the degradation of battery performance, and eventual failure, are many and varied. Apart from occasional field surveys of automotive batteries in the U.S.A., comprehensive failure analyses of units removed from service are rarely published. In general, the information is kept proprietary, or appears as a post mortem report that is subsidiary to some other topic of interest. By contrast, the literature abounds with detailed laboratory investigations of phenomena that are likely to contribute, wholly or in part, to the demise of batteries. In broad terms, this review draws together the fragmented and scattered data presently available on the failure mechanisms of lead/acid batteries in order to provide a platform for further exploration of the phenomena, and for the planning of remedial strategies. The approach taken is to classify, first, the different lead/acid technologies in terms of required duty (i.e., float, cycling and automotive applications), unit design (i.e., flat or tubular plate, flooded or immobilized electrolyte), and grid alloy (i.e., leadantimony or leadcalcium system). A distinction is then made between catastrophic failure, as characterized by a sudden inability of the battery to function, and progressive failure, as demonstrated by some more subtle deviation from optimum performance. Catastrophic failure is attributed to incorrect cell design, poor manufacturing practice, abuse, or misuse. These problems are obvious and, accordingly

  18. Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Morris

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Cet article relie Madame Bovary au contexte scientifique français des années 1850, en lisant le roman de Flaubert à la lumière des théories de Cuvier. Le savant français Georges Cuvier, avec nombre de ses contemporains, explique les origines du monde à l’aide de la théorie des catastrophes. D’après cette théorie, le monde est divisé en périodes très courtes ponctuées de grandes catastrophes ou, en termes cuviériens, de « révolutions » qui ont éradiqué toute vie et ont permis au monde d’être entièrement repeuplé. Une telle conception affecte l’idée même du « temps ». Cuvier pense que la formation de la Terre est relativement récente, l’époque présente n’étant vieille que de cinq mille ans. Cette compression temporelle peut être rapportée à Madame Bovary dont le « tempo » s’accroît au fur et à mesure qu’on se rapproche du dénouement. Dans la théorie des catastrophes comme dans le roman, le temps ne suit pas une ligne chronologique. Les « révolutions » viennent briser le fil continu du temps et Emma est souvent incapable de distinguer entre le passé, le présent et le futur. Les « révolutions » servent aussi à ponctuer et à perturber le cours de la vie sur Terre en produisant des événements majeurs dans l’histoire du globe. Il en est de même dans la vie d’Emma. Son existence est marquée par des événements majeurs, comme le bal, qui créent un éclatement et une fragmentation de la temporalité, comme dans la théorie de Cuvier. Je défendrai aussi l’idée d’un lien entre la soudaineté et la violence des « révolutions » et les crises nerveuses d’Emma, qui surviennent brusquement et relèvent de l’hystérie. La conception cuviérienne de la temporalité doit enfin être envisagée au regard des théories de l’évolution, ce qui implique de réévaluer les notions d’adaptation, d’hérédité et de mort dans le roman de Flaubert.This paper locates Madame

  19. Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

    2001-01-01

    Communities in lowlands near volcanoes are vulnerable to significant volcanic flow hazards in addition to those associated directly with eruptions. The largest such risk is from debris flows beginning as volcanic landslides, with the potential to travel over 100 kilometers. Stratovolcanic edifices commonly are hydrothermal aquifers composed of unstable, altered rock forming steep slopes at high altitudes, and the terrain surrounding them is commonly mantled by readily mobilized, weathered airfall and ashflow deposits. We propose that volcano hazard assessments integrate the potential for unanticipated debris flows with, at active volcanoes, the greater but more predictable potential of magmatically triggered flows. This proposal reinforces the already powerful arguments for minimizing populations in potential flow pathways below both active and selected inactive volcanoes. It also addresses the potential for volcano flank collapse to occur with instability early in a magmatic episode, as well as the 'false-alarm problem'-the difficulty in evacuating the potential paths of these large mobile flows. Debris flows that transform from volcanic landslides, characterized by cohesive (muddy) deposits, create risk comparable to that of their syneruptive counterparts of snow and ice-melt origin, which yield noncohesive (granular) deposits, because: (1) Volcano collapses and the failures of airfall- and ashflow-mantled slopes commonly yield highly mobile debris flows as well as debris avalanches with limited runout potential. Runout potential of debris flows may increase several fold as their volumes enlarge beyond volcanoes through bulking (entrainment) of sediment. Through this mechanism, the runouts of even relatively small collapses at Cascade Range volcanoes, in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 cubic kilometers, can extend to populated lowlands. (2) Collapse is caused by a variety of triggers: tectonic and volcanic earthquakes, gravitational failure, hydrovolcanism, and

  20. Early Mobilization Reduces Duration of Mechanical Ventilation and Intensive Care Unit Stay in Patients With Acute Respiratory Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Chih-Cheng; Chou, Willy; Chan, Khee-Siang; Cheng, Kuo-Chen; Yuan, Kuo-Shu; Chao, Chien-Ming; Chen, Chin-Ming

    2017-05-01

    To evaluate the effects of a quality improvement program to introduce early mobilization on the outcomes of patients with mechanical ventilation (MV) in the intensive care unit (ICU). A retrospective observational study. Nineteen-bed ICU at a medical center. Adults patients with MV (N=153) admitted to a medical ICU. A multidisciplinary team (critical care nurse, nursing assistant, respiratory therapist, physical therapist, patient's family) initiated the protocol within 72 hours of MV when patients become hemodynamically stable. We did early mobilization twice daily, 5d/wk during family visits (30min each time), and cooperated with family, if possible. MV duration, rate of successful weaning, and length of ICU and hospital stay. We enrolled 63 patients in the before protocol group and 90 in the after protocol group. The 2 groups were well matched in age, sex, body height, body weight, body mass index, disease severity, cause of intubation, number of comorbidities, and most underlying diseases. After protocol group patients had shorter MV durations (4.7d vs 7.5d; PICU stays (6.9d vs 9.9d; P=.001) than did before protocol group patients. Early mobilization was negatively associated with the duration of MV (β=-.269; PICU shortened MV durations and ICU stays. A multidisciplinary team that includes the patient's family can work together to improve the patient's clinical outcomes. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Catastrophic Consequences of Kicking the Chameleon

    CERN Document Server

    Erickcek, Adrienne L; Burrage, Clare; Huang, Zhiqi

    2013-01-01

    The physics of the "dark energy" that drives the current cosmological acceleration remains mysterious, and the dark sector may involve new light dynamical fields. If these light scalars couple to matter, a screening mechanism must prevent them from mediating an unacceptably strong fifth force locally. Here we consider a concrete example: the chameleon mechanism. We show that the same coupling between the chameleon field and matter employed by the screening mechanism also has catastrophic consequences for the chameleon during the Universe's first minutes. The chameleon couples to the trace of the stress-energy tensor, which is temporarily non-zero in a radiation-dominated universe whenever a particle species becomes non-relativistic. These "kicks" impart a significant velocity to the chameleon field, causing its effective mass to vary non-adiabatically and resulting in the copious production of quantum fluctuations. Dissipative effects strongly modify the background evolution of the chameleon field, invalidati...

  2. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: The current management approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Espinosa, Gerard; Cervera, Ricard

    2016-04-01

    The current recommendation for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) management is the standard triple therapy with anticoagulation (AC), glucocorticoids (GCs), plasma exchange (PE), and/or intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIGs). Of note, only AC has a significant effect on the prognosis of these patients. However, from the experimental or basic point of view, there is only indirect evidence to advocate the use of these immunomodulatory therapies (GC, PE, and IVIG) in CAPS. Recently, there have been reports of severe or refractory CAPS patients treated with the monoclonal antibodies rituximab and eculizumab. The first blocks CD20, a surface protein expressed on the cytoplasmic membrane of B cells, and decreases the generation of pathogenic autoantibodies such as antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies. The second binds with high affinity to C5 complement protein, inhibiting its cleavage and thus preventing the generation of C5b-C9 complex. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Simple scaling of catastrophic landslide dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekström, Göran; Stark, Colin P

    2013-03-22

    Catastrophic landslides involve the acceleration and deceleration of millions of tons of rock and debris in response to the forces of gravity and dissipation. Their unpredictability and frequent location in remote areas have made observations of their dynamics rare. Through real-time detection and inverse modeling of teleseismic data, we show that landslide dynamics are primarily determined by the length scale of the source mass. When combined with geometric constraints from satellite imagery, the seismically determined landslide force histories yield estimates of landslide duration, momenta, potential energy loss, mass, and runout trajectory. Measurements of these dynamical properties for 29 teleseismogenic landslides are consistent with a simple acceleration model in which height drop and rupture depth scale with the length of the failing slope.

  4. Early Clinical Outcome of Mitral Valve Replacement Using a Newly Designed Stentless Mitral Valve for Failure of Initial Mitral Valve Repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishida, Hidefumi; Kasegawa, Hitoshi; Kin, Hajime; Takanashi, Shuichiro

    2016-12-21

    Here we report the early outcome of mitral valve replacement using a newly designed stentless mitral valve for failure of initial mitral valve repair. Mitral valve plasty (MVP) for mitral regurgitation is currently a standard technique performed worldwide. However, whether mitral valve repair should be performed for patients with advanced leaflet damage or complicated pathology remains controversial. Mitral valve replacement might be feasible for patients who have undergone failed initial MVP; however, it is not an optimal treatment because of poor valve durability and the need for anticoagulative therapy. We report two cases of successful mitral valve replacement using a newly designed stentless mitral valve made of fresh autologous pericardium, which may have a potential benefit over mitral valve repair or mitral valve replacement with a mechanical or bioprosthetic valve.

  5. Analysis of different device-based intrathoracic impedance vectors for detection of heart failure events (from the Detect Fluid Early from Intrathoracic Impedance Monitoring study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heist, E Kevin; Herre, John M; Binkley, Philip F; Van Bakel, Adrian B; Porterfield, James G; Porterfield, Linda M; Qu, Fujian; Turkel, Melanie; Pavri, Behzad B

    2014-10-15

    Detect Fluid Early from Intrathoracic Impedance Monitoring (DEFEAT-PE) is a prospective, multicenter study of multiple intrathoracic impedance vectors to detect pulmonary congestion (PC) events. Changes in intrathoracic impedance between the right ventricular (RV) coil and device can (RVcoil→Can) of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) and cardiac resynchronization therapy ICDs (CRT-Ds) are used clinically for the detection of PC events, but other impedance vectors and algorithms have not been studied prospectively. An initial 75-patient study was used to derive optimal impedance vectors to detect PC events, with 2 vector combinations selected for prospective analysis in DEFEAT-PE (ICD vectors: RVring→Can + RVcoil→Can, detection threshold 13 days; CRT-D vectors: left ventricular ring→Can + RVcoil→Can, detection threshold 14 days). Impedance changes were considered true positive if detected heart failure events. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Early graft failure of GalTKO pig organs in baboons is reduced by expression of a human complement pathway-regulatory protein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azimzadeh, Agnes M; Kelishadi, Sean S; Ezzelarab, Mohamed B; Singh, Avneesh K; Stoddard, Tiffany; Iwase, Hayato; Zhang, Tianshu; Burdorf, Lars; Sievert, Evelyn; Avon, Chris; Cheng, Xiangfei; Ayares, David; Horvath, Keith A; Corcoran, Philip C; Mohiuddin, Muhammad M; Barth, Rolf N; Cooper, David K C; Pierson, Richard N

    2015-01-01

    We describe the incidence of early graft failure (EGF, defined as loss of function from any cause within 3 days after transplant) in a large cohort of GalTKO pig organs transplanted into baboons in three centers, and the effect of additional expression of a human complement pathway-regulatory protein, CD46 or CD55 (GalTKO.hCPRP). Baboon recipients of life-supporting GalTKO kidney (n = 7) or heterotopic heart (n = 14) grafts received either no immunosuppression (n = 4), or one of several partial or full immunosuppressive regimens (n = 17). Fourteen additional baboons received a GalTKO.hCPRP kidney (n = 5) or heart (n = 9) and similar treatment regimens. Immunologic, pathologic, and coagulation parameters were measured at frequent intervals. EGF of GalTKO organs occurred in 9/21 baboons (43%). hCPRP expression reduced the GalTKO EGF incidence to 7% (1/14; P organs in which EGF developed (P organ failure, and (iii) the expression of a hCPRP reduces EGF but does not prevent systemic coagulation activation. Additional strategies will be required to control coagulation activation.

  7. Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dale R. Lockwood

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the "real" world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be "tools" rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a "both-and" rather than an "either-or" approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may provide a way forward

  8. Catastrophic healthcare expenditure - drivers and protection: the Portuguese case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kronenberg, Christoph; Barros, Pedro Pita

    2014-03-01

    The objective of this paper is to assess the extent of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, which can lead to impoverishment, even in a country with a National Health Service, such as Portugal. The level of catastrophic healthcare expenditure will be identified before the determinants of these catastrophic payments are analyzed. Afterwards, the effects of existing exemptions to copayments in health care use will be tested and the relationship between catastrophe and impoverishment will be discussed. Catastrophe is calculated from the Portuguese Household Budget Surveys of 2000 and 2005, and then analyzed using logistic regression models. The results show that catastrophe due to healthcare out-of-pocket payments are a sizeable issue in Portugal. Exemptions from out-of-pocket expenses for medical care should be created to prevent vulnerable groups from facing catastrophic healthcare spending. These vulnerable groups include children, people with disabilities and individuals suffering from chronic conditions. Disability proxies offer straightforward policy options for an exemption for the elderly with recognized disabilities. An exemption of retired people with disabilities is therefore recommended to policymakers as it targets a vulnerable group with high risk of facing catastrophic healthcare expenditure.

  9. Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2009-01-01

    This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

  10. 'Performative narrativity': Palestinian identity and the performance of catastrophe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saloul, I.

    2008-01-01

    The day Israel annually celebrates as its "Day of Independence" Palestinians commemorate as their day of catastrophe (al-nakba). To most Palestinians, the catastrophic loss of Palestine in 1948 represents the climactic formative event of their lives. In the aftermath of this loss, the Palestinian so

  11. Cell death by mitotic catastrophe: a molecular definition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castedo, M.; Perfettini, J.-L.; Roumier, T.; Andreau, K.; Medema, R.H.; Kroemer, G.

    2004-01-01

    The current literature is devoid of a clearcut definition of mitotic catastrophe, a type of cell death that occurs during mitosis. Here, we propose that mitotic catastrophe results from a combination of deficient cell-cycle checkpoints (in particular the DNA structure checkpoints and the spindle ass

  12. Catastrophe, gender and urban experience 1648-1920

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

  13. Yolk syncytial layer formation is a failure of cytokinesis mediated by Rock1 function in the early zebrafish embryo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee-Thean Chu

    2012-06-01

    The yolk syncytial layer (YSL performs multiple critical roles during zebrafish development. However, little is known about the cellular and molecular mechanisms that underlie the formation of this important extraembryonic structure. Here, we demonstrate by timelapse confocal microscopy of a transgenic line expressing membrane-targeted GFP that the YSL forms as a result of the absence of cytokinesis between daughter nuclei at the tenth mitotic division and the regression of pre-existing marginal cell membranes, thus converting the former margin of the blastoderm into a syncytium. We show that disruption of components of the cytoskeleton induces the formation of an expanded YSL, and identify Rock1 as the regulator of cytoskeletal dynamics that lead to YSL formation. Our results suggest that the YSL forms as a result of controlled cytokinesis failure in the marginal blastomeres, and Rock1 function is necessary for this process to occur. Uncovering the cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying zebrafish YSL formation offers significant insight into syncytial development in other tissues as well as in pathological conditions.

  14. Grey forewarning and prediction for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA Qi-hua; CAO Jian-jun

    2007-01-01

    Based on the theory of grey system, established GM (1, 1) grey catastrophe predict model for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing (not the volume of water inflowing). After establishing the grey predict system of the catastrophe regularity of 10 month-average volume of water inflowing, the grey forewarning for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods was established which was used to analyze water disaster in -400 meter level of Wennan Colliery. Based on residual analysis,it shows that the result of grey predict system is almost close to the actual value. And the scene actual result also shows the reliability of prediction. Both the theoretical analysis and the scene actual result indicate feasibility and reliability of the method of grey catastrophe predict system.

  15. Psychological resilience predicts decreases in pain catastrophizing through positive emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Anthony D; Zautra, Alex J; Reid, M Carrington

    2010-09-01

    The study used a daily process design to examine the role of psychological resilience and positive emotions in the day-to-day experience of pain catastrophizing. A sample of 95 men and women with chronic pain completed initial assessments of neuroticism, psychological resilience, and demographic data, and then completed short diaries regarding pain intensity, pain catastrophizing, and positive and negative emotions every day for 14 consecutive days. Multilevel modeling analyses indicated that independent of level of neuroticism, negative emotions, pain intensity, income, and age, high-resilient individuals reported greater positive emotions and exhibited lower day-to-day pain catastrophizing compared with low-resilient individuals. Mediation analyses revealed that psychologically resilient individuals rebound from daily pain catastrophizing through experiences of positive emotion. Implications for research on psychological resilience, pain catastrophizing, and positive emotions are discussed.

  16. A case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, which presented an acute interstitial pneumonia-like image on chest CT scan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kameda, Tomohiro; Dobashi, Hiroaki; Susaki, Kentaro; Danjo, Junichi; Nakashima, Shusaku; Shimada, Hiromi; Izumikawa, Miharu; Takeuchi, Yohei; Mitsunaka, Hiroki; Bandoh, Shuji; Imataki, Osamu; Nose, Masato; Matsunaga, Takuya

    2015-01-01

    We report the case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) complicated with mixed connective tissue disease (MCTD). A female patient was diagnosed with acute interstitial pneumonia (AIP) with MCTD by chest CT scan. Corticosteroid therapy was refractory for lung involvement, and she died due to acute respiratory failure. The autopsy revealed that AIP was compatible with lung involvement of CAPS. We therefore suggest that chest CT might reveal AIP-like findings in CAPS patients whose condition is complicated with pulmonary manifestations.

  17. Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel E Bialosky

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

  18. Learning from Engineering Failures: A Case Study of the Deepwater Horizon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Mary Annette; Hunt, Brian

    2012-01-01

    Natural catastrophes and engineering failures provide timely, motivating, and conceptually rich backdrops for learning. Engineering educators have long embraced case studies of engineering failures as a sound pedagogical strategy for meeting several learning standards, such as "design within realistic constraints", and teaching failure analysis.…

  19. Effect of Early Hemofiltration on Pro- and Anti-inflammatory Responses and Multiple Organ Failure in Severe Acute Pancreatitis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨智勇; 王春友; 陶京; 熊炯炘; 万赤丹; 周锋

    2004-01-01

    The effects of early hemofiltration on the serum levels of cytokines, pro- and anti-inflammatory balance and organ function in pigs with severe acute pancreatits (SAP) were studied. SAP pig model was induced by retrograde injection of artificial bile into the pancreatic duct. The pigs were randomly divided into SAP hemofiltration treatment group (HF group, n= 8) and SAP nonhemofiltration treatment group (NHF group, n=8). In the HF group, the animals were subjected to high-volume and zero-balance hemofiltration therapy. The results showed that as compared with NHF group, MAP, CVP and PaO2/FiO2 were significantly increased (P<0.01), while HR, urinary protein content, serum ALT level, pulmonary coefficient and lung wet/dry ratio obviously decreased (P<0.05) in HF group. Under a light microscope, the pulmonary histologic scoring was lower that in HF group (P<0.01) and the lesions of renal and liver tissues were milder. However,there was no significant difference in the pancreatic histologic scoring between the two groups. Six h after establishment of the model, the serum levels of TNF-α, IL-1β were lower, while the IL-10/TNF-α ratio was higher in HF group (all P<0.05). It was suggested that early hemofiltration could effectively remove the serum cytokines TNF-α and IL-1β in SAP pigs, elevate the ratio of IL-10/TNF-α, improve hemodynamics and alleviate the lesions of lung, kidney and liver tissues.

  20. Applications of modelling historical catastrophic events with implications for catastrophe risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorby, A.; Grossi, P.; Pomonis, A.; Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.

    2009-04-01

    The management of catastrophe risk is concerned with the quantification of financial losses, and their associated probabilities, for potential future catastrophes that might impact a region. Modelling of historical catastrophe events and, in particular, the potential consequences if a similar event were to occur at the present day can provide insight to help bridge the gap between what we know can happen from historical experience and what potential losses might be out there in the "universe" of potential catastrophes. The 1908 Messina Earthquake (and accompanying local tsunami) was one of the most destructive earthquakes to have occurred in Europe and by most accounts remains Europe's most fatal with over 70,000 casualties estimated. However, what would the potential consequences be, in terms of financial and human losses, if a similar earthquake were to occur at the present day? Exposures, building stock and populations can change over time and, therefore, the consequences of a similar earthquake at the present day may sensibly differ from those observed in 1908. The city of Messina has been reconstructed several times in its history, including following the 1908 earthquake and again following the Second World War. The 1908 earthquake prompted the introduction of the first seismic design regulations in Italy and since 1909 parts of the Messina and Calabria regions have been in the zones of highest seismic coefficient. Utilizing commercial catastrophe loss modelling technology - which combines the modelling of hazard, vulnerability, and financial losses on a database of property exposures - a modelled earthquake scenario of M7.2 in the Messina Straits region of Southern Italy is considered. This modelled earthquake is used to assess the potential consequences in terms of financial losses that an earthquake similar to the 1908 earthquake might have if it were to occur at the present day. Loss results are discussed in the context of applications for the financial

  1. THE SUCCESSFUL TREATMENT OF A PERIPHERAL VENO-VENOUS EXTRACORPOREAL MEMBRANE OXYGENATION FOR SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY FAILURE IN THE EARLY PERIOD AFTER ADULT LIVER TRANSPLANTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Poptsov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: of our clinical study was to present own experience of veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV ECMO for the treatment of an adult patient (female, 28 yrs, 150 cm, 35 kg with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS in the early period after liver transplantation against satisfactory liver graft function. Materials and methods. Double-lumen cannula 22 F was placed percutaneously in the right internal jugular vein. The ext- racorporeal contour reduced in length and the polymethylpeptene oxygenator (priming volume 175 ml were also. Results. In 1 hour after the beginning of VV ECMO, we registered the noted improvement of arterial blood gas and acid-base balance (regress of respiratory acidosis, improvement of arterial oxygenation which allowed us to use the «protective» mode of mechanical ventilation. Improvement of gas exchange and regress of clinical and radiological manifestations of ARDS allowed for VV ECMO weaning and decannulation on day 7. The patient was discharged from ICU and then from our Centre to a homestay respectively on the 9th and 16th day after VV ECMO weaning with the satisfactory liver graft and lungs function. Conclusion. VV ECMO can be successfully applied to correct the life-threatening acute respiratory failure in the early period after liver transplantation. 

  2. Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindrová Pavla

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

  3. The relation between catastrophizing and the communication of pain experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, M J L; Martel, M O; Tripp, D; Savard, A; Crombez, G

    2006-06-01

    The Communal Coping Model of pain catastrophizing proposes that pain catastrophizers enact pain behaviors in order to solicit support or empathy from their social environment. By this account, pain catastrophizers might be expected to engage in behavior aimed at maximizing the probability that their pain will be perceived by others in their social environment. To test this prediction, 40 undergraduates were videotaped during a cold pressor procedure. A separate sample of 20 (10 men, 10 women) undergraduates were asked to view the video sequences and infer the pain ratings of the cold pressor participants. Correlational analyses revealed that higher levels of pain catastrophizing of the cold pressor participants were associated with observer inferences of more intense pain, r=.39, ppain catastrophizing and observer inferences of pain intensity was mediated by the cold pressor participants' pain behavior. Although pain catastrophizing was associated with observers' inferences of more intense pain, cold pressor participants' level of pain catastrophizing was not associated with observers' accuracy in inferring self-reported pain. Implications of the findings for theory and clinical practice are addressed.

  4. The role of early nephrostomy in the management of patients with hyperkalaemia and renal failure due to ureteric obstruction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bhaskar Kumar Somani; Harun Gupta; Alastair Todd

    2014-01-01

    Objective:To assess the outcomes of early percutaneous nephrostomy in obstructed hydronephrosis and hyperkalaemia from ureteric obstruction. Methods:Patients were diagnosed with hyperkalaemia with serum potassium >5.0 mmol/L and hyperkalaemia was graded as mild(5.0-6.0 mmol/L), moderate(6.1-7.0 mmol/L) or severe(>7.1 mmol/L).Data on age, sex, clinical presentation, presence of concurrent disease, creatinine, potassium, haemoglobin concentration, time interval in doing the nephrostomy since their first presentation, any prenephrostomy medical correction of hyperkalaemia and complications were collected. Results:A total of61 patients(40 males and21 females) with mean age of69.7 years(ranged35 to94 years) underwent69 procedures.Prior to the nephrostomy, the serum potassium was mildly elevated in42 cases, moderately elevated in17 cases and severely elevated in10 cases.The overall mean level of potassium before intervention was6.1 mmol/L(range:5.1 mmol/L-9.3 mmol/L).Forty(58%) had nephrostomy without prior medical treatment of the hyperkalaemia.The mean serum potassium in these patients was5.6 mmol/L(range:5.1 mmol/L-7.5 mmol/L).Twentynine (42%) had medical treatment of the hyperkalaemia prior to nephrostomy.The mean potassium level in these patients was reduced from6.7 mmol/L(range5.4 mmol/L-9.3 mmol/L) before medical treatment to5.8 mmol/L(4.0 mmol/L-7.4 mmol/L).Five patients(7%) had complications from percutaneous nephrostomy including temporary atrial fibrillation in3 patients and transient pyrexia in2 patients. Conclusions:Percutaneous nephrostomy as the initial management for hyperkalaemia from ureteric obstruction is a safe procedure with acceptable complication rates.

  5. New Electric Online Oil Condition Monitoring Sensor – an Innovation in Early Failure Detection of Industrial Gears

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manfred Mauntz

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available A new online diagnostics system for the continuous condition monitoring of lubricating oils in industrial gearboxes is presented. Characteristic features of emerging component damage, such as wear, contamination or chemical aging, are identified in an early stage. The OilQSens® sensor effectively controls the proper operation conditions of bearings and cogwheels in gears. Also, the condition of insulating oils in transformers can be monitored. The online diagnostics system measures components of the specific complex impedance of oils. For instance, metal abrasion due to wear debris, broken oil molecules, forming acids or oil soaps result in an increase of the electrical conductivity, which directly correlates with the degree of contamination in the oil. The dielectrical properties of the oils are particularly determined by the water content that becomes accessible via an additional accurate measurement of the dielectric constant. For additivated oils, statements on the degradation of additives can also be derived from changes in the dielectric constant. For an efficient machine utilization and targeted damage prevention, the new OilQSens® online condition monitoring sensor system allows for timely preventative maintenance on demand rather than in rigid inspection intervals. The determination of impurities or reduction in the quality of the oil and the quasi continuous evaluation of wear and chemical aging follow the holistic approach of a real-time monitoring of a change in the condition of the oil-machine system. Once the oil condition monitoring sensors are installed on the plants, the measuring data can be displayed and evaluated elsewhere. The measuring signals are transmitted to a web-based condition monitoring system via LAN, WLAN or serial interfaces of the sensor system. Monitoring of the damage mechanisms during proper operation below the tolerance limits of the components enables specific preventive maintenance independent of rigid

  6. Analyses of patterns-of-failure and prognostic factors according to radiation fields in early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krebs, Lorraine; Guillerm, Sophie; Menard, Jean; Hennequin, Christophe; Quero, Laurent [Saint Louis Hospital, Radiation Oncology Department, Paris (France); Amorin, Sandy; Brice, Pauline [Saint Louis Hospital, AP-HP, Hematooncology Department, Paris (France)

    2017-02-15

    Doses and volumes of radiation therapy (RT) for early stages of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) have been reduced over the last 30 years. Combined modality therapy (CMT) is currently the standard treatment for most patients with early-stage HL. The aim of this study was to analyze the site of relapse after RT according to the extent of radiation fields. Between 1987 and 2011, 427 patients were treated at our institution with RT ± chemotherapy for stage-I/II HL. Among these, 65 patients who experienced a relapse were retrospectively analyzed. Most patients had nodular sclerosis histology (86 %) and stage-II disease (75.9 %). Bulky disease was present in 21 % and 56 % of patients belonged to the unfavorable risk group according to European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC)/The Lymphoma Study Association (LYSA) definitions. CMT was delivered to 91 % of patients. All patients received RT with doses ranging from 20 to 45 Gy (mean = 34 ± 5.3 Gy). The involved-field RT technique was used in 59 % of patients. The mean time between diagnosis and relapse was 4.2 years (range 0.3-24.5). Out-of-field relapses were suffered by 53 % of patients. Relapses occurred more frequently at out-of-field sites in patients with a favorable disease status, whereas in-field relapses were associated with bulky mediastinal disease. Relapses occurred later for favorable compared with the unfavorable risk group (3.5 vs. 2.9 years, p = 0.5). From multivariate analyses, neither RT dose nor RT field size were predictive for an in-field relapse (p = 0.25 and p = 0.8, respectively), only bulky disease was predictive (p = 0.018). In patients with bulky disease, RT dose and RT field size were not predictive for an in-field relapse. In this subgroup of patients, chemotherapy should be intensified. We confirmed the bad prognosis of early relapses. (orig.) [German] Waehrend der letzten 30 Jahre wurden die Strahlentherapie-(RT-)Dosis und die RT-Volumina fuer die Behandlung der Fruehstadien

  7. The Potential for Space Intervention in Global Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hempsell, M.

    There is a growing understanding of the risks facing mankind of global catastrophe, which is defined as an event that kills a quarter the world population and risks destruction of organised society. Such catastrophes can be triggered by either naturally occurring, or arthropogenic, initiating events. And history shows that catastrophes with a natural origin do occur, with a mean separation time of around 1000 years. Anthropogenic initiated events are a recent possibility resulting from an expansion of technology capabilities, economic activity and population and, while they clearly significantly increase the total risk level above the natural background, it is more difficult to determine quantitatively by how much. Some initiating events and be directly tackled by an appropriate space capability. For example intercepting Near Earth Object before collision, or using Solar Power Satellites to eliminating carbon dioxide production in the power generation process to which many attribute global warming. Obviously prevention is the preferred option and so, not surprisingly, these particular uses of space as a means of preventing global catastrophe have received considerable attention. However space capability has a much wider potential for intervention in global catastrophes, even in those where the initiating event itself cannot be prevented. Previous work highlighting the risks through consideration of historic catastrophes has identified that global catastrophes have a complex structure with the initiating event triggering chains of vectors, which in turn trigger death causing agents. The work also highlighted that the vectors and agents during a catastrophe are similar regardless of the initiating event. This opens the possibility that space systems capable of addressing generic vectors and agents on a global scale can help deal with any global catastrophe regardless of its cause. The paper lists known (and credible) components to global catastrophes and highlight

  8. Optical catastrophes of the swallowtail and butterfly beams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zannotti, Alessandro; Diebel, Falko; Boguslawski, Martin; Denz, Cornelia

    2017-05-01

    We experimentally realize higher-order catastrophic structures in light fields presenting solutions of the paraxial diffraction catastrophe integral. They are determined by potential functions whose singular mapping manifests as caustic hypersurfaces in control parameter space. By addressing different cross-sections in the higher-dimensional control parameter space, we embed swallowtail and butterfly catastrophes with varying caustic structures in the lower-dimensional transverse field distribution. We systematically analyze these caustics analytically and observe their field distributions experimentally in real and Fourier space. Their spectra can be described by polynomials or expressions with rational exponents capable to form a cusp.

  9. Risk Measure and Premium Distribution on Catastrophe Reinsurance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XUN LI; WANG DE-HUI

    2012-01-01

    In this paper,we propose a new risk measure which is based on the Orlicz premium principle to characterize catastrophe risk premium.The intention is to develop a formulation strategy for Catastrophe Fund.The logarithm equivalent form of reinsurance premium is regarded as the retention of reinsurer,and the differential earnings between the reinsurance premium and the reinsurer's retention is accumulated as a part of Catastrophe Fund.We demonstrate that the aforementioned risk measure has some good properties,which are further confirmed by numerical simulations in R environment.

  10. Mechanical stress induced mechanism of microtubule catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunyadi, Viktória; Chrétien, Denis; Jánosi, Imre M

    2005-05-13

    Microtubules assembled in vitro from pure tubulin can switch occasionally from growing to shrinking states or resume assembly, an unusual behavior termed "dynamic instability of microtubule growth". Its origin remains unclear and several models have been proposed, including occasional switching of the microtubules into energetically unfavorable configurations during assembly. In this study, we have asked whether the excess energy accumulated in these configurations would be of sufficient magnitude to destabilize the capping region that must exist at the end of growing microtubules. For this purpose, we have analyzed the frequency distribution of microtubules assembled in vitro from pure tubulin, and modeled the different mechanical constraints accumulated in their wall. We find that the maximal excess energy that the microtubule lattice can store is in the order of 11 kBT per dimer. Configurations that require distortions up to approximately 20 kBT are allowed at the expense of a slight conformational change, and larger distortions are not observed. Modeling of the different elastic deformations suggests that the excess energy is essentially induced by protofilament skewing, microtubule radial curvature change and inter-subunit shearing, distortions that must destabilize further the tubulin subunits interactions. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that unfavorable closure events may trigger the catastrophes observed at low tubulin concentration in vitro. In addition, we propose a novel type of representation that describes the stability of microtubule assembly systems, and which might be of considerable interest to study the effects of stabilizing and destabilizing factors on microtubule structure and dynamics.

  11. Catastrophic Cracking Courtesy of Quiescent Cavitation

    CERN Document Server

    Daily, D Jesse; Thomson, Scott L; Truscott, Tadd T

    2012-01-01

    A popular party trick is to fill a glass bottle with water and hit the top of the bottle with an open hand, causing the bottom of the bottle to break open. We investigate the source of the catastrophic cracking through the use of high-speed video and an accelerometer attached to the bottom of a glass bottle. Upon closer inspection, it is obvious that the acceleration caused by hitting the top of the bottle is followed by the formation of bubbles near the bottom. The nearly instantaneous acceleration creates an area of low pressure on the bottom of the bottle where cavitation bubbles form. Moments later, the cavitation bubbles collapse at roughly 10 times the speed of formation, causing the bottle to break. The accelerometer data shows that the bottle is broken after the bubbles collapse and that the magnitude of the bubble collapse is greater than the initial impact. The fluid dynamics video highlights that this trick will not work if the bottle is empty nor if it is filled with a carbonated fluid because the...

  12. Avoiding Environmental Catastrophes: Varieties of Principled Precaution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan R. Johnson

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The precautionary principle is often proposed as a guide to action in environmental management or risk assessment, and has been incorporated in various legal and regulatory contexts. For many, it reflects the common sense notion of being safe rather than sorry, but it has attracted numerous critics. At times, proponents and critics talk at cross purposes, due to the multiplicity of ways the precautionary principle has been formulated. The approach taken here is to examine four general varieties of precaution, relating each to arguments made in various contexts by others. First, I examine the parallel between the precautionary principle and an argument referred to as Pascal's wager. Critics are right to dismiss versions of the precautionary principle that follow the logic of Pascal's wager, because that argument requires assumption of an infinite catastrophe, which is seldom the case in environmental decisions. Second, I explore precaution viewed as an instance of the phenomenon of ambiguity aversion as described by Daniel Ellsberg. Third, I evaluate precautionary perspectives on our duties to future generations, drawing inspiration from the views of Gifford Pinchot. Fourth, I consider the precautionary principle as an instance of Aldo Leopold's notion of intelligent tinkering. Although controversy persists, I find that a legitimate theoretical foundation exists to implement Ellsbergian, Pinchotian and Leopoldean varieties of precaution in environmental decision making. Additionally, I remark on the role of adaptive management and maintaining resilience in ecological and social systems as an approach to implementing the precautionary principle.

  13. Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, Masamichi

    During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and

  14. Recommendations on pre-hospital & early hospital management of acute heart failure: a consensus paper from the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology, the European Society of Emergency Medicine and the Society of Academic Emergency Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mebazaa, Alexandre; Yilmaz, M Birhan; Levy, Phillip; Ponikowski, Piotr; Peacock, W Frank; Laribi, Said; Ristic, Arsen D; Lambrinou, Ekaterini; Masip, Josep; Riley, Jillian P; McDonagh, Theresa; Mueller, Christian; deFilippi, Christopher; Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Thiele, Holger; Piepoli, Massimo F; Metra, Marco; Maggioni, Aldo; McMurray, John; Dickstein, Kenneth; Damman, Kevin; Seferovic, Petar M; Ruschitzka, Frank; Leite-Moreira, Adelino F; Bellou, Abdelouahab; Anker, Stefan D; Filippatos, Gerasimos

    2015-06-01

    Acute heart failure is a fatal syndrome. Emergency physicians, cardiologists, intensivists, nurses and other health care providers have to cooperate to provide optimal benefit. However, many treatment decisions are opinion-based and few are evidenced-based. This consensus paper provides guidance to practicing physicians and nurses to manage acute heart failure in the pre-hospital and hospital setting. Criteria of hospitalization and of discharge are described. Gaps in knowledge and perspectives in the management of acute heart failure are also detailed. This consensus paper on acute heart failure might help enable contiguous practice.

  15. Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esser Norbert

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background and Purpose Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR. Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Materials and methods Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2. Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. Results SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Conclusions Our results suggest the importance of delayed

  16. PSA Nadir of <0.5 ng/mL Following Brachytherapy for Early-Stage Prostate Adenocarcinoma is Associated With Freedom From Prostate-Specific Antigen Failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ko, Eric C. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, NY (United States); Stone, Nelson N. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, NY (United States); Department of Urology, Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, NY (United States); Stock, Richard G., E-mail: Richard.Stock@mountsinai.org [Department of Radiation Oncology, Mount Sinai Medical Center, New York, NY (United States)

    2012-06-01

    Purpose: Because limited information exists regarding whether the rate or magnitude of PSA decline following brachytherapy predicts long-term clinical outcomes, we evaluated whether achieving a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) nadir (nPSA) <0.5 ng/mL following brachytherapy is associated with decreased PSA failure and/or distant metastasis. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively analyzed our database of early-stage prostate adenocarcinoma patients who underwent brachytherapy, excluding those receiving androgen-deprivation therapy and those with <2 years follow-up. Median and mean pretreatment PSA were 6 ng/mL and 7.16 ng/mL, respectively. By clinical stage, 775 were low risk ({<=}T2a), 126 were intermediate risk (T2b), and 20 were high risk (>T2b). By Gleason score, 840 were low risk ({<=}6), 71 were intermediate risk (7), and 10 were high risk (>7). Patients were treated with brachytherapy only (I-125, n = 779, or Pd-103, n = 47), or brachytherapy + external-beam radiation therapy (n = 95). Median follow-up was 6.3 years. We noted whether nPSA <0.5 ng/mL was achieved and the time to achieve this nadir and tested for associations with pretreatment risk factors. We also determined whether this PSA endpoint was associated with decreased PSA failure or distant metastasis. Results: Absence of high-risk factors in clinical stage ({<=}T2b), Gleason score ({<=}7), and pretreatment PSA ({<=}20 ng/mL) was significantly associated with achieving nPSA <0.5 ng/mL. By Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients achieving nPSA <0.5 ng/mL had significantly higher long-term freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF) than nonresponders (5-year FFBF: 95.2 {+-} 0.8% vs. 71.5 {+-} 6.7%; p < 0.0005). Among responders, those who achieved nPSA <0.5 ng/mL in {<=}5 years had higher FFBF than those requiring >5 years (5-year FFBF: 96.7 {+-} 0.7% vs. 80.8 {+-} 4.6%; p < 0.0005). On multivariate analysis, patients who achieved nPSA <0.5 ng/mL in {<=}5 years had significantly higher FFBF than other

  17. Intention-to-Treat Analysis of Radical Trachelectomy for Early-Stage Cervical Cancer With Special Reference to Oncologic Failures: Single-Institutional Experience in Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Póka, Robert; Molnár, Szabolcs; Daragó, Péter; Lukács, János; Lampé, Rudolf; Krasznai, Zoárd; Hernádi, Zoltán

    2017-09-01

    The aim of our study was to evaluate clinical and pathological data in order to draw eligibility criteria for oncologically sufficient radical trachelectomy (RT) in early-stage cervical cancer. Reviewing all cases of attempted RT performed at our unit, we focused attention on prognostic indicators of the need for additional oncologic treatment following RT. The analysis was extended by extensive literature review to include previously published cases of oncologic failures. The authors retrospectively analyzed data of patients who underwent RT at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Debrecen. Electronic records and case notes of RT cases were reviewed to determine the incidence of abdominal and vaginal route, distribution of clinicopathologic data, and follow-up results of individual cases. Individual procedures were categorized as oncologically insufficient if additional oncologic treatment was necessary following RT. Theoretical eligibility criteria for RT in early-stage cervical cancer were determined retrospectively by selecting prognostic features that were associated with oncologic insufficiency from clinicopathologic indicators of the complete series. Twenty-four cases of RT were performed by the authors, 15 vaginal RTs with laparoscopic pelvic lymphadenectomy and 9 abdominal RTs with open pelvic lymphadenectomy. Fifteen of 24 cases proved oncologically sufficient. Three cases required immediate conversion to radical hysterectomy because of positive sentinel nodes and/or positive isthmic disc on frozen section. In further 5 cases, final pathology results indicated additional oncologic treatment, that is, radical hysterectomy (n = 2), chemoradiotherapy (n = 2), or chemotherapy (n = 1). One patient among immediately converted cases and another 3 among those who required additional oncologic treatment died of their disease later. There were no other cases of recurrences over a median follow-up of 34 months (range, 12-188 months). Factors

  18. An Update on Football Deaths and Catastrophic Injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Frederick O.; Blyth, Carl S.

    1986-01-01

    The latest figures (1985) indicate a continued decline in football deaths and catastrophic injuries, which is credited to a ban on spearing and to a helmet standard. Guidelines for prevention of fatalities and injuries are listed. (Author/MT)

  19. Gradient catastrophe and Fermi-edge resonances in Fermi gas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bettelheim, E; Kaplan, Y; Wiegmann, P

    2011-04-22

    Any smooth spatial disturbance of a degenerate Fermi gas inevitably becomes sharp. This phenomenon, called the gradient catastrophe, causes the breakdown of a Fermi sea to multiconnected components characterized by multiple Fermi points. We argue that the gradient catastrophe can be probed through a Fermi-edge singularity measurement. In the regime of the gradient catastrophe the Fermi-edge singularity problem becomes a nonequilibrium and nonstationary phenomenon. We show that the gradient catastrophe transforms the single-peaked Fermi-edge singularity of the tunneling (or absorption) spectrum to a sequence of multiple asymmetric singular resonances. An extension of the bosonic representation of the electronic operator to nonequilibrium states captures the singular behavior of the resonances.

  20. Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey S. Kryukovsky

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of special software for calculating of special functions, questions of portability, extensibility and interoperability.

  1. Pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Background: Pain frequency has been shown to influence sensitization, psychological distress, and pain modulation. The present study examined if pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain. Method: A non-clinical (247 students) and a clinical (223 pain patients) sample completed the Danish versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), Beck Depression Inventory, and the State Trait Anxiety Inventory and rated pain intensity, unpleasantness and frequen...

  2. Pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Background Pain frequency has been shown to influence sensitization, psychological distress and pain modulation. The present study examined if pain frequency moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain. Method A non-clinical (247 students) and a clinical (223 pain patients) sample completed the Danish versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Beck Depression Inventory and the State Trait Anxiety Inventory and rated pain intensity, unpleasantness and frequency Results In...

  3. Financial Innovation in the Management of Catastrophe Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Doherty, Neil A.

    1997-01-01

    Catastrophic events such as hurricane and earthquakes are the dominant source of risk for many property casualty insurers. Primary insurers usually limit the scale and geographic scope of their operations in order to focus on core competencies such as marketing, underwriting and loss control. But his often leaves them without sufficient geographic spread to diversify catastrophe risk. The traditional hedge for the primary insurer is reinsurance. Specialist reinsurers achieve a spacial spread ...

  4. UKRAINIAN EVENTS AS HISTORICAL, INTERNATIONAL CATASTROPHE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Kasyanov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the scientific article fully examines current events in Ukraine in 2014-2015. The author believes that the causal and comparative historical analysis of the current Ukrainian crisis allows characterizing it as a major historical and ethnic catastrophe on a global scale after the collapse of the USSR in 1991. Obvious microand macroeffects inevitably impact on the history of relations between Ukrainian and Russian brotherly nations, lead (and has led to freeze their contacts, projects and links. It causes a feeling of well-founded anxiety for the fate of not only bilateral relations between Ukraine and Russia and the state of Post-Soviet space, but also for the development of all Slavic ethnic groups in the world. According to the author, it is necessary to review quickly realized Ukrainian direction of Russian state policy. It is necessary, as quickly as possible to get away from officiously promotional activities, technologies and techniques of information war and bring aid all the diversity of cultural cooperation. It is only a means of soft power, understood by us in the manner of the approach of its founder, American political scientist Joseph Nye, are able to restore the broken trust and interaction structures. Only the culture, and more specifically it such areas as language, traditions, generation feats, faith, can gradually normalize, and then to improve the bilateral relations, the each other perception, to restore a sense of respect, friendship and mutual assistance between Ukraine and Russia. It is obvious that bilateral cultural project able to change the existing negative situation.

  5. Catastrophic Cervical Spine Injuries in Contact Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Michael James; McGuire, Robert A; Dunn, Robert; Williams, Richard; Robertson, Peter; Twaddle, Bruce; Kiely, Patrick; Clarke, Andrew; Mazda, Keyvan; Davies, Paul; Pagarigan, Krystle T; Dettori, Joseph R

    2016-11-01

    Study Design Systematic review. Objectives To determine the incidence of catastrophic cervical spine injuries (CCSIs) among elite athletes participating in contact team sports and whether the incidence varies depending on the use of protective gear or by player position. Methods Electronic databases and reference lists of key articles published from January 1, 2000, to January 29, 2016, were searched. Results Fourteen studies were included that reported CCSI in rugby (n = 10), American football (n = 3), and Irish hurling (n = 1). Among Rugby Union players, incidence of CCSI was 4.1 per 100,000 player-hours. Among National Football League players, the CCSI rate was 0.6 per 100,000 player-exposures. At the collegiate level, the CCSI rate ranged from 1.1 to 4.7 per 100,000 player-years. Mixed populations of elite and recreational rugby players in four studies report a CCSI rate of 1.4 to 7.2 per 100,000 player-years. In this same population, the scrum accounted for 30 to 51% of total reported CCSIs in Rugby Union versus 0 to 4% in Rugby League. The tackle accounted for 29 to 39% of injuries in Rugby Union and 78 to 100% of injuries in Rugby League. Making a tackle was responsible for 29 to 80% of injuries in American football. Conclusion CCSIs are infrequent among elite athletes. There is insufficient evidence to determine the effect of protective gear (e.g., helmets, padding) on CCSI incidence. Scrum and tackle in rugby and tackling in American football account for the majority of CCSIs in each respective sport.

  6. Catastrophic Cervical Spine Injuries in Contact Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Michael James; McGuire, Robert A.; Dunn, Robert; Williams, Richard; Robertson, Peter; Twaddle, Bruce; Kiely, Patrick; Clarke, Andrew; Mazda, Keyvan; Davies, Paul; Pagarigan, Krystle T.; Dettori, Joseph R.

    2016-01-01

    Study Design Systematic review. Objectives To determine the incidence of catastrophic cervical spine injuries (CCSIs) among elite athletes participating in contact team sports and whether the incidence varies depending on the use of protective gear or by player position. Methods Electronic databases and reference lists of key articles published from January 1, 2000, to January 29, 2016, were searched. Results Fourteen studies were included that reported CCSI in rugby (n = 10), American football (n = 3), and Irish hurling (n = 1). Among Rugby Union players, incidence of CCSI was 4.1 per 100,000 player-hours. Among National Football League players, the CCSI rate was 0.6 per 100,000 player-exposures. At the collegiate level, the CCSI rate ranged from 1.1 to 4.7 per 100,000 player-years. Mixed populations of elite and recreational rugby players in four studies report a CCSI rate of 1.4 to 7.2 per 100,000 player-years. In this same population, the scrum accounted for 30 to 51% of total reported CCSIs in Rugby Union versus 0 to 4% in Rugby League. The tackle accounted for 29 to 39% of injuries in Rugby Union and 78 to 100% of injuries in Rugby League. Making a tackle was responsible for 29 to 80% of injuries in American football. Conclusion CCSIs are infrequent among elite athletes. There is insufficient evidence to determine the effect of protective gear (e.g., helmets, padding) on CCSI incidence. Scrum and tackle in rugby and tackling in American football account for the majority of CCSIs in each respective sport. PMID:27781193

  7. Distress tolerance is linked to unhealthy eating through pain catastrophizing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emami, Ashley S; Woodcock, Anna; Swanson, Heidi E; Kapphahn, Teresa; Pulvers, Kim

    2016-12-01

    Low distress tolerance, an important component of emotion regulation, is a risk factor for unhealthy eating. Identifying factors which explain the link between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating can advance the understanding of problematic eating and inform prevention and treatment of obesity and eating disorders. The present study examines pain catastrophizing as a mediator between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating in a nonclinical population, which has received little attention despite being a risk factor for unhealthy eating behaviors. The Distress Tolerance Scale (DTS), Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS), and the Dutch Eating Behavior Questionnaire (DEBQ), were administered to 171 college students (62.6% female, 38.6% White, 28.1% Hispanic). There was no evidence of a significant direct effect of distress tolerance on unhealthy eating. However, as hypothesized, there was a significant indirect or mediated effect of pain catastrophizing on the relationship between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating. Individuals low in distress tolerance reported higher pain catastrophizing, and a result, these individuals also reported higher levels of unhealthy eating. These findings introduce pain catastrophizing as an influential variable in the link between distress tolerance and unhealthy eating. Findings suggest that reducing catastrophic thinking about pain may be a worthy target of intervention in reducing unhealthy eating. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Associations between Neuroticism and Depression in Relation to Catastrophizing and Pain-Related Anxiety in Chronic Pain Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadimpati, Sandeep; Zale, Emily L; Hooten, Michael W; Ditre, Joseph W; Warner, David O

    2015-01-01

    Several cognitive-affective constructs, including pain catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety, have been implicated in the onset and progression of chronic pain, and both constructs have been identified as key targets for multidisciplinary pain treatment. Both neuroticism and depression have been linked to these constructs (and to each other), but how each may contribute to the pain experience is unknown. This study tested associations between neuroticism, depression, and indices of catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety among persons seeking treatment for chronic non-malignant pain. We hypothesized, as a higher-order personality trait, neuroticism would remain uniquely associated with both pain catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety, even after accounting for current symptoms of depression. A retrospective study design assessed depression (as measured by the Centers for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale), neuroticism (measured with the Neuroticism-Extraversion-Openness Personality Inventory), the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, and the Pain Anxiety Symptom Score in a consecutive series of patients (n=595) admitted to a 3-week outpatient pain treatment program from March 2009 through January 2011. Hierarchical regression indicated that neuroticism was independently associated with greater pain catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety, above-and-beyond the contributions of sociodemographic characteristics, pain severity, and depression. A depression by neuroticism interaction was not observed, suggesting that associations between neuroticism and cognitive-affective pain constructs remained stable across varying levels of current depression. These findings represent an early but important step towards the clarification of complex associations between trait neuroticism, current depression, and tendencies toward catastrophic and anxiety-provoking appraisals of pain among persons seeking treatment for chronic pain.

  9. Associations between Neuroticism and Depression in Relation to Catastrophizing and Pain-Related Anxiety in Chronic Pain Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandeep Kadimpati

    Full Text Available Several cognitive-affective constructs, including pain catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety, have been implicated in the onset and progression of chronic pain, and both constructs have been identified as key targets for multidisciplinary pain treatment. Both neuroticism and depression have been linked to these constructs (and to each other, but how each may contribute to the pain experience is unknown. This study tested associations between neuroticism, depression, and indices of catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety among persons seeking treatment for chronic non-malignant pain. We hypothesized, as a higher-order personality trait, neuroticism would remain uniquely associated with both pain catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety, even after accounting for current symptoms of depression. A retrospective study design assessed depression (as measured by the Centers for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale, neuroticism (measured with the Neuroticism-Extraversion-Openness Personality Inventory, the Pain Catastrophizing Scale, and the Pain Anxiety Symptom Score in a consecutive series of patients (n=595 admitted to a 3-week outpatient pain treatment program from March 2009 through January 2011. Hierarchical regression indicated that neuroticism was independently associated with greater pain catastrophizing and pain-related anxiety, above-and-beyond the contributions of sociodemographic characteristics, pain severity, and depression. A depression by neuroticism interaction was not observed, suggesting that associations between neuroticism and cognitive-affective pain constructs remained stable across varying levels of current depression. These findings represent an early but important step towards the clarification of complex associations between trait neuroticism, current depression, and tendencies toward catastrophic and anxiety-provoking appraisals of pain among persons seeking treatment for chronic pain.

  10. Locoregional Failure in Early-Stage Breast Cancer Patients Treated With Radical Mastectomy and Adjuvant Systemic Therapy: Which Patients Benefit From Postmastectomy Irradiation?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trovo, Marco, E-mail: marcotrovo33@hotmail.com [Department of Radiation Oncology, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico of Aviano, Aviano (Italy); Durofil, Elena [Department of Radiation Oncology, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico of Aviano, Aviano (Italy); Polesel, Jerry [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico of Aviano, Aviano (Italy); Roncadin, Mario [Department of Radiation Oncology, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico of Aviano, Aviano (Italy); Perin, Tiziana [Department of Pathology, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico of Aviano, Aviano (Italy); Mileto, Mario; Piccoli, Erica [Department of Surgery, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico of Aviano, Aviano (Italy); Quitadamo, Daniela [Scientific Direction, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico of Aviano, Aviano (Italy); Massarut, Samuele [Department of Surgery, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico of Aviano, Aviano (Italy); Carbone, Antonino [Department of Pathology, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico of Aviano, Aviano (Italy); Trovo, Mauro G. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Centro di Riferimento Oncologico of Aviano, Aviano (Italy)

    2012-06-01

    Purpose: To assess the locoregional failure in patients with Stage I-II breast cancer treated with radical mastectomy and to evaluate whether a subset of these patients might be at sufficiently high risk of locoregional recurrence (LRR) to benefit from postmastectomy irradiation (PMRT). Methods and Materials: Stage I-II breast cancer patients (n = 150) treated with radical mastectomy without adjuvant irradiation between 1999 and 2005 were analyzed. The pattern of LRR was reported. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to calculate rates of LRR, and Cox proportional hazards methods were used to evaluate potential risk factors. Results: Median follow-up was 75 months. Mean patient age was 56 years. One-hundred forty-three (95%) patients received adjuvant systemic therapy: 85 (57%) hormonal therapy alone, 14 (9%) chemotherapy alone, and 44 (29%) both chemotherapy and hormonal therapy. Statistically significant factors associated with increased risk of LRR were premenopausal status (p = 0.004), estrogen receptor negative cancer (p = 0.02), pathologic grade 3 (p = 0.02), and lymphovascular invasion (p = 0.001). T and N stage were not associated with increased risk of regional recurrence. The 5-year LRR rate for patients with zero or one, two, three, and four risk factors was 1%, 10.3%, 24.2%, and 75%, respectively. Conclusions: A subset of patients with early-stage breast cancer is at high risk of LRR, and therefore PMRT might be beneficial.

  11. Peat slope failure in Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    Boylan, Noel; Jennings, Paul; Long, Michael

    2008-01-01

    Recent peat failures in Ireland in the autumn of 2003 at Pollatomish, County Mayo and Derrybrien, County Galway have focused attention on such events. However, peat failures are not a recent phenomenon with possible evidence of peat failures in Ireland having been identified as far back as the Early Bronze Age. This paper summarises the issues surrounding peat failures in Ireland that would be of interest to an engineer\\engineering geologist assessing this geohazard. The distri...

  12. The geomorphic impact of catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, S. G.

    2006-12-01

    Perhaps the most dramatic manifestation of global warming is catastrophic glacier ice loss in mountain regions. The geomorphic impact of this process was first outlined by Evans and Clague in 1994 and includes mountain slope instability, glacier avalanching, the formation and failure of moraine dammed lakes, and the formation and failure of ice dammed lakes. The present paper is an update of the 1994 publication and has three components. First, a global review of recent glacier-related geomorphic events is undertaken. Second, an analysis of two cases from the Coast Mountains of British Columbia - the 1975 Devastation Glacier landslide and the 1983 Nostetuko Lake outburst resulting from the failure of a moraine dam illustrates the interaction of glacier ice loss and related geomorphic events. At Devastation Glacier, approximately 13 M m3 of altered Quaternary volcanic rock and glacier ice was lost from the west flank of Pylon Peak in the Mount Meager volcanic complex. The events were initiated by a catastrophic rockslide, involving altered Quaternary pyroclastic rocks, which continued down Devastation Creek valley as a high velocity debris avalanche. The overall length of the slide path was 7 km and the vertical height of the path was 1220 m yielding a fahrboschung of 10°. Other large landslides occurred in Devastation Creek valley in 1931 and 1947. Stability analysis of the initial failure shows that the 1975 rockslide was the result of a complex history of glacial erosion, loading and unloading of the toe of the slide mass caused by the Little Ice Age advance and subsequent retreat of Devastation Glacier. The shearing resistance along the base of the rockslide mass was reduced prior to 1975 by substantial previous slope displacements related to glacial ice loss. Some of this displacement is likely to have occurred as subglacial slope deformation since ice fall and crevasse patterns suggest the presence of slide like shearing displacements below the base of

  13. From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darnall BD

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

  14. A probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Rui; Martina, Mario; Stephenson, David; Youngman, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Economic losses due to natural hazards have shown an upward trend since 1980, which is expected to continue. Recent years have seen a growing worldwide commitment towards the reduction of disaster losses. This requires effective management of disaster risk at all levels, a part of which involves reducing financial vulnerability to disasters ex-ante, ensuring that necessary resources will be available following such events. One way to achieve this is through risk transfer instruments. These can be based on different types of triggers, which determine the conditions under which payouts are made after an event. This study focuses on parametric triggers, where payouts are determined by the occurrence of an event exceeding specified physical parameters at a given location, or at multiple locations, or over a region. This type of product offers a number of important advantages, and its adoption is increasing. The main drawback of parametric triggers is their susceptibility to basis risk, which arises when there is a mismatch between triggered payouts and the occurrence of loss events. This is unavoidable in said programmes, as their calibration is based on models containing a number of different sources of uncertainty. Thus, a deterministic definition of the loss event triggering parameters appears flawed. However, often for simplicity, this is the way in which most parametric models tend to be developed. This study therefore presents an innovative probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance. It is advantageous as it recognizes uncertainties and minimizes basis risk while maintaining a simple and transparent procedure. A logistic regression model is constructed here to represent the occurrence of loss events based on certain loss index variables, obtained through the transformation of input environmental variables. Flood-related losses due to rainfall are studied. The resulting model is able, for any given day, to issue probabilities of occurrence of loss

  15. Learning about past catastrophes from the present perturbation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, William

    2017-04-01

    The present perturbation of the climate system is dominated by injection of CO2 into the atmosphere, raisin its concentration from about 270ppm in 1800 to 400 ppm today. The rate of increase is about 300 times that which occurred during the last glacial termination. Predictions of the changes in response to this perturbation have been wrong. In 1982 it was proposed that the Arctic might become ice-free in summer in 2200. It is more likely to occur by 2020. The heating of the Earth's surface has paused from time to time, due to albedo changes induced by atmospheric pollutants and by heat storage in the ocean interior. Over the last decades, sea ice formation around Antarctica had expanded rather than contracted, counterintuitively due to warming of the Southern Ocean. In 2016-2017 the climate system may have experienced a jump to a new state, with winter growth of Arctic sea-ice inhibited and summer melting of circum-Antarctic sea ice greatly enhanced. Analysis of reconstructions of the Ronov (1993, Pliocene through Early Cambrian) and Hay (1994, Quaternary) databases on sedimentary rocks to estimate the amounts originally present suggest that the Holocene and Anthropocene may be unique episodes in geologic history. The Anthropocene climate was originally stabilized by human activity, then massively destabilized in recent centuries. However, Earth was already in a uniquely unstable state, more prone to rapid climate change than at any other time during the Phanerozoic. As the perturbation proceeds we will learn much about climate change from catastrophic events.

  16. Understanding of failure and failure of understanding: Aspects of failure in the Old Testament

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Alfred Loader

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Taking its cue from Rudolf Bultmann’s famous verdict that the Old Testament is a ‘failure’ (‘Scheitern’, the article reviews three influential negative readings of Israel’s history as told in the Former Prophets. It is then argued that awareness of the theological problem posed by Israel’s history enabled the redactors of both the former and the latter prophetic collections to deal with the element of human failure in a way that facilitated Israel’s retaining of her faith. Next, the sapiential insight in failing human discernment is drawn into the equation. Failure of human action is here interrelated with failure to comprehend God’s order. By virtue of its incorporation into the totality of the Tanak, this insight became a constructive part of Israel’s faith. Therefore the concept of failure comprises more than coming to terms with Israel’s catastrophic history. Since it is encoded in Israel’s Holy Scripture, ‘failure’ is a major concept within the Old Testament internally and is therefore not suitable as a verdict over the Old Testament by an external value judgement. ‘Failure’ thus becomes a key hermeneutical category, not merely so that the Old Testament could become a ‘promise’ for the New Testament to fulfil, but as a manifestation of limits in human religion and thought. Far from undermining self-esteem, constructive use of the concept of her own failure sustained Israel in her catastrophe and should be adopted by Christianity – not least in South Africa, where the biblical message was often misappropriated to bolster apartheid.

  17. Understanding of failure and failure of understanding: Aspects of failure in the Old Testament

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Alfred Loader

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Taking its cue from Rudolf Bultmann’s famous verdict that the Old Testament is a ‘failure’ (‘Scheitern’, the article reviews three influential negative readings of Israel’s history as told in the Former Prophets. It is then argued that awareness of the theological problem posed by Israel’s history enabled the redactors of both the former and the latter prophetic collections to deal with the element of human failure in a way that facilitated Israel’s retaining of her faith. Next, the sapiential insight in failing human discernment is drawn into the equation. Failure of human action is here interrelated with failure to comprehend God’s order. By virtue of its incorporation into the totality of the Tanak, this insight became a constructive part of Israel’s faith. Therefore the concept of failure comprises more than coming to terms with Israel’s catastrophic history. Since it is encoded in Israel’s Holy Scripture, ‘failure’ is a major concept within the Old Testament internally and is therefore not suitable as a verdict over the Old Testament by an external value judgement. ‘Failure’ thus becomes a key hermeneutical category, not merely so that the Old Testament could become a ‘promise’ for the New Testament to fulfil, but as a manifestation of limits in human religion and thought. Far from undermining self-esteem, constructive use of the concept of her own failure sustained Israel in her catastrophe and should be adopted by Christianity – not least in South Africa, where the biblical message was often misappropriated to bolster apartheid.

  18. Heart Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... heart failure due to systolic dysfunction. http://www.uptodate.com/home. Accessed Sept. 26, 2014. Colucci WS. ... patient with heart failure or cardiomyopathy. http://www.uptodate.com/home. Accessed Sept. 26, 2014. Colucci WS. ...

  19. Catastrophic glacial multi-phase mass movements: a special type of glacial hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Petrakov

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Many glacier-related hazards are well typified and studied, but some events stand out from conventional classifications. The Kolka-Karmadon catastrophic event on 20 September 2002 in North Ossetia, North Caucasus, Russia is used as an example of a complex glacier failure exhibiting characteristics such as high mobility, long runout, ultrarapid movement and multiphase behaviour. We consider terminology protocol for glacier hazard classification and then, using the Kolka-Karmadon event and several other examples from around the world, we propose a new term for this family of events. Catastrophic glacier multi-phase mass movement (CGMM is described and further illustrated by eight major events from Russia, Georgia, Peru, Chile, and Canada. CGMM have a combination of specific features: extraordinary velocities and long-distance runout despite low path angle; progressive fluidisation along travel path; superelevation and run-up of the moving mass, air blast wave in the avalanche flow phase; entrainment of available materials in its path, and the repeated nature of the event. CGMM events may affect areas remote from glaciers which were previously considered as safe.

  20. Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

    CERN Document Server

    1994-01-01

    Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

  1. Chromosome catastrophes involve replication mechanisms generating complex genomic rearrangements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pengfei; Erez, Ayelet; Nagamani, Sandesh C Sreenath; Dhar, Shweta U; Kołodziejska, Katarzyna E; Dharmadhikari, Avinash V; Cooper, M Lance; Wiszniewska, Joanna; Zhang, Feng; Withers, Marjorie A; Bacino, Carlos A; Campos-Acevedo, Luis Daniel; Delgado, Mauricio R; Freedenberg, Debra; Garnica, Adolfo; Grebe, Theresa A; Hernández-Almaguer, Dolores; Immken, LaDonna; Lalani, Seema R; McLean, Scott D; Northrup, Hope; Scaglia, Fernando; Strathearn, Lane; Trapane, Pamela; Kang, Sung-Hae L; Patel, Ankita; Cheung, Sau Wai; Hastings, P J; Stankiewicz, Paweł; Lupski, James R; Bi, Weimin

    2011-09-16

    Complex genomic rearrangements (CGRs) consisting of two or more breakpoint junctions have been observed in genomic disorders. Recently, a chromosome catastrophe phenomenon termed chromothripsis, in which numerous genomic rearrangements are apparently acquired in one single catastrophic event, was described in multiple cancers. Here, we show that constitutionally acquired CGRs share similarities with cancer chromothripsis. In the 17 CGR cases investigated, we observed localization and multiple copy number changes including deletions, duplications, and/or triplications, as well as extensive translocations and inversions. Genomic rearrangements involved varied in size and complexities; in one case, array comparative genomic hybridization revealed 18 copy number changes. Breakpoint sequencing identified characteristic features, including small templated insertions at breakpoints and microhomology at breakpoint junctions, which have been attributed to replicative processes. The resemblance between CGR and chromothripsis suggests similar mechanistic underpinnings. Such chromosome catastrophic events appear to reflect basic DNA metabolism operative throughout an organism's life cycle.

  2. Catastrophic ice lake collapse in Aram Chaos, Mars

    CERN Document Server

    Roda, Manuel; Zegers, Tanja E; Oosthoek, Jelmer H P

    2014-01-01

    Hesperian chaotic terrains have been recognized as the source of outflow channels formed by catastrophic outflows. Four main scenarios have been proposed for the formation of chaotic terrains that involve different amounts of water and single or multiple outflow events. Here, we test these scenarios with morphological and structural analyses of imagery and elevation data for Aram Chaos in conjunction with numerical modeling of the morphological evolution of the catastrophic carving of the outflow valley. The morphological and geological analyses of Aram Chaos suggest large-scale collapse and subsidence (1500 m) of the entire area, which is consistent with a massive expulsion of liquid water from the subsurface in one single event. The combined observations suggest a complex process starting with the outflow of water from two small channels, followed by continuous groundwater sapping and headward erosion and ending with a catastrophic lake rim collapse and carving of the Aram Valley, which is synchronous with ...

  3. Stagewise cognitive development: an application of catastrophe theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Maas, H L; Molenaar, P C

    1992-07-01

    In this article an overview is given of traditional methodological approaches to stagewise cognitive developmental research. These approaches are evaluated and integrated on the basis of catastrophe theory. In particular, catastrophe theory specifies a set of common criteria for testing the discontinuity hypothesis proposed by Piaget. Separate criteria correspond to distinct methods used in cognitive developmental research. Such criteria are, for instance, the detection of spurts in development, bimodality of test scores, and increased variability of responses during transitional periods. When a genuine stage transition is present, these criteria are expected to be satisfied. A revised catastrophe model accommodating these criteria is proposed for the stage transition in cognitive development from the preoperational to the concrete operational stage.

  4. Standard guide for corrosion-related failure analysis

    CERN Document Server

    American Society for Testing and Materials. Philadelphia

    2000-01-01

    1.1 This guide covers key issues to be considered when examining metallic failures when corrosion is suspected as either a major or minor causative factor. 1.2 Corrosion-related failures could include one or more of the following: change in surface appearance (for example, tarnish, rust, color change), pin hole leak, catastrophic structural failure (for example, collapse, explosive rupture, implosive rupture, cracking), weld failure, loss of electrical continuity, and loss of functionality (for example, seizure, galling, spalling, swelling). 1.3 Issues covered include overall failure site conditions, operating conditions at the time of failure, history of equipment and its operation, corrosion product sampling, environmental sampling, metallurgical and electrochemical factors, morphology (mode) or failure, and by considering the preceding, deducing the cause(s) of corrosion failure. This standard does not purport to address all of the safety concerns, if any, associated with its use. It is the responsibili...

  5. Rooting out causes in failure analysis; Risk analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keith, Graeme

    2010-07-01

    The Deepwater Horizon disaster was a terrible reminder of the consequences of equipment failure on facilities operating in challenging environments. Thankfully catastrophes on the scale of the Deepwater Horizon are rare, but equipment failure is a daily occurrence on installations around the globe. The consequences range from short unexpected downtime, to a total stop on production. from a brief burst of flaring to lasting environmental damage and from the momentary discomfiture of a worker to incapability or death. (Author)

  6. Application of Catastrophe Theory in 3D Seismic Data Interpretation of Coal Mine

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Mu-hua; YANG Wen-qiang; CUI Hui-xia

    2005-01-01

    In order to detect fault exactly and quickly, cusp catastrophe theory is used to interpret 3D coal seismic data in this paper. By establishing a cusp model, seismic signal is transformed into standard form of cusp catastrophe and catastrophe parameters, including time-domain catastrophe potential, time-domain catastrophe time, frequency-domain catastrophe potential and frequency- domain degree, are calculated. Catastrophe theory is used in 3D seismic structural interpretation in coal mine. The results show that the position of abnormality of the catastrophe parameter profile or curve is related to the location of fault, and the cusp catastrophe theory is effective to automatically pick up geology information and improve the interpretation precision in 3D seismic data.

  7. Heritability of pain catastrophizing and associations with experimental pain outcomes: a twin study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trost, Zina; Strachan, Eric; Sullivan, Michael; Vervoort, Tine; Avery, Ally R; Afari, Niloofar

    2015-03-01

    This study used a twin paradigm to examine genetic and environmental contributions to pain catastrophizing and the observed association between pain catastrophizing and cold-pressor task (CPT) outcomes. Male and female monozygotic (n = 206) and dizygotic twins (n = 194) from the University of Washington Twin Registry completed a measure of pain catastrophizing and performed a CPT challenge. As expected, pain catastrophizing emerged as a significant predictor of several CPT outcomes, including cold-pressor Immersion Tolerance, Pain Tolerance, and Delayed Pain Rating. The heritability estimate for pain catastrophizing was found to be 37% with the remaining 63% of variance attributable to unique environmental influence. Additionally, the observed associations between pain catastrophizing and CPT outcomes were not found attributable to shared genetics or environmental exposure, which suggests a direct relationship between catastrophizing and experimental pain outcomes. This study is the first to examine the heritability of pain catastrophizing and potential processes by which pain catastrophizing is related to experimental pain response.

  8. NAT2 genotype guided regimen reduces isoniazid-induced liver injury and early treatment failure in the 6-month four-drug standard treatment of tuberculosis: a randomized controlled trial for pharmacogenetics-based therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azuma, Junichi; Ohno, Masako; Kubota, Ryuji; Yokota, Soichiro; Nagai, Takayuki; Tsuyuguchi, Kazunari; Okuda, Yasuhisa; Takashima, Tetsuya; Kamimura, Sayaka; Fujio, Yasushi; Kawase, Ichiro

    2013-05-01

    This study is a pharmacogenetic clinical trial designed to clarify whether the N-acetyltransferase 2 gene (NAT2) genotype-guided dosing of isoniazid improves the tolerability and efficacy of the 6-month four-drug standard regimen for newly diagnosed pulmonary tuberculosis. In a multicenter, parallel, randomized, and controlled trial with a PROBE design, patients were assigned to either conventional standard treatment (STD-treatment: approx. 5 mg/kg of isoniazid for all) or NAT2 genotype-guided treatment (PGx-treatment: approx. 7.5 mg/kg for patients homozygous for NAT2 4: rapid acetylators; 5 mg/kg, patients heterozygous for NAT2 4: intermediate acetylators; 2.5 mg/kg, patients without NAT2 4: slow acetylators). The primary outcome included incidences of 1) isoniazid-related liver injury (INH-DILI) during the first 8 weeks of therapy, and 2) early treatment failure as indicated by a persistent positive culture or no improvement in chest radiographs at the 8th week. One hundred and seventy-two Japanese patients (slow acetylators, 9.3 %; rapid acetylators, 53.5 %) were enrolled in this trial. In the intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis, INH-DILI occurred in 78 % of the slow acetylators in the STD-treatment, while none of the slow acetylators in the PGx-treatment experienced either INH-DILI or early treatment failure. Among the rapid acetylators, early treatment failure was observed with a significantly lower incidence rate in the PGx-treatment than in the STD-treatment (15.0 % vs. 38 %). Thus, the NAT2 genotype-guided regimen resulted in much lower incidences of unfavorable events, INH-DILI or early treatment failure, than the conventional standard regimen. Our results clearly indicate a great potential of the NAT2 genotype-guided dosing stratification of isoniazid in chemotherapy for tuberculosis.

  9. Development and Validation of a Daily Pain Catastrophizing Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darnall, Beth D; Sturgeon, John A; Cook, Karon F; Taub, Chloe J; Roy, Anuradha; Burns, John W; Sullivan, Michael; Mackey, Sean C

    2017-09-01

    To date, there is no validated measure for pain catastrophizing at the daily level. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) is widely used to measure trait pain catastrophizing. We sought to develop and validate a brief, daily version of the PCS for use in daily diary studies to facilitate research on mechanisms of catastrophizing treatment, individual differences in self-regulation, and to reveal the nuanced relationships between catastrophizing, correlates, and pain outcomes. After adapting the PCS for daily use, we evaluated the resulting 14 items using 3 rounds of cognitive interviews with 30 adults with chronic pain. We refined and tested the final daily PCS in 3 independent, prospective, cross-sectional, observational validation studies conducted in a combined total of 519 adults with chronic pain who completed online measures daily for 14 consecutive days. For study 1 (N = 131), exploratory factor analysis revealed adequate fit and-unexpectedly-unidimensionality for item responses to the daily PCS. Study 2 (N = 177) correlations indicated adequate association with related constructs (anger, anxiety, pain intensity, depression). Similarly, results for study 3 (N = 211) revealed expected correlations for daily PCS and measures of daily constructs including physical activity, sleep, energy level, and positive affect. Results from complex/multilevel confirmatory factor analysis confirmed good fit to a unidimensional model. Scores on the daily PCS were statistically comparable with and more parsimonious than the full 14-item version. Next steps include evaluation of score validity in populations with medical diagnoses, greater demographic diversity, and in patients with acute pain. This article describes the development and validation of a daily PCS. This daily measure may facilitate research that aims to characterize pain mechanisms, individual differences in self-regulation, adaptation, and nuanced relationships between catastrophizing, correlates, and pain

  10. A critical look at risk assessments for global catastrophes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Adrian

    2004-02-01

    Recent articles by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish small bounds on the risk of a "killer strangelet" catastrophe scenario in the RHIC and ALICE collider experiments. The case for the safety of the experiments set out by BJSW does not rely solely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling to firmly exclude any possibility of catastrophe. Nonetheless, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) suggested that these empirical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expectation value-a good measure, according to standard risk analysis arguments. For example, DDH's main bound, p(catastrophe) future generations, a catastrophe risk no higher than approximately 10(-15) per year would be required for consistency with established policy for radiation hazard risk minimization. Allowing for risk aversion and for future lives, a respectable case can be made for requiring a bound many orders of magnitude smaller. In summary, the costs of small risks of catastrophe have been significantly underestimated by BJSW (initially), by DDH, and by other commentators. Future policy on catastrophe risks would be more rational, and more deserving of public trust, if acceptable risk bounds were generally agreed upon ahead of time and if serious research on whether those bounds could indeed be guaranteed was carried out well in advance of any hypothetically risky experiment, with the relevant debates involving experts with no stake in the experiments under consideration.

  11. Learning from Engineering Failures: A Case Study of the Deepwater Horizon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Mary Annette; Hunt, Brian

    2012-01-01

    Natural catastrophes and engineering failures provide timely, motivating, and conceptually rich backdrops for learning. Engineering educators have long embraced case studies of engineering failures as a sound pedagogical strategy for meeting several learning standards, such as "design within realistic constraints", and teaching failure…

  12. THE COOLING OF CORONAL PLASMAS. IV. CATASTROPHIC COOLING OF LOOPS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cargill, P. J. [Space and Atmospheric Physics, The Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College, London SW7 2BW (United Kingdom); Bradshaw, S. J., E-mail: p.cargill@imperial.ac.uk [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Rice University, Houston, TX 77005 (United States)

    2013-07-20

    We examine the radiative cooling of coronal loops and demonstrate that the recently identified catastrophic cooling is due to the inability of a loop to sustain radiative/enthalpy cooling below a critical temperature, which can be >1 MK in flares, 0.5-1 MK in active regions, and 0.1 MK in long tenuous loops. Catastrophic cooling is characterized by a rapid fall in coronal temperature, while the coronal density changes by a small amount. Analytic expressions for the critical temperature are derived and show good agreement with numerical results. This effect considerably limits the lifetime of coronal plasmas below the critical temperature.

  13. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome presenting as fever of unknown origin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatma I Al-Beladi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Antiphospholipid syndrome is characterized by the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies with characteristic clinical manifestation, which include venous, arterial thrombosis, thrombotic microangiopathy, and recurrent fetal loss. The syndrome can be secondary to many causes including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE or "primary" antiphospholipid syndrome (APLS. We report a case of a man with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS, which occurs when three or more organ systems are affected by thrombosis in less than a week. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is uncommon but often fatal. The patient received a successful treatment that controlled this disease and included intravenous heparin, antiplatelet, intravenous corticosteroid, and plasmapheresis.

  14. Predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems by compressive sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen-Xu; Yang, Rui; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Kovanis, Vassilios; Grebogi, Celso

    2011-04-15

    An extremely challenging problem of significant interest is to predict catastrophes in advance of their occurrences. We present a general approach to predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems under the assumption that the system equations are completely unknown and only time series reflecting the evolution of the dynamical variables of the system are available. Our idea is to expand the vector field or map of the underlying system into a suitable function series and then to use the compressive-sensing technique to accurately estimate the various terms in the expansion. Examples using paradigmatic chaotic systems are provided to demonstrate our idea.

  15. Predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems by compressive sensing

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Wen-Xu; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Kovanis, Vassilios; Grebogi, Celso

    2011-01-01

    An extremely challenging problem of significant interest is to predict catastrophes in advance of their occurrences. We present a general approach to predicting catastrophes in nonlinear dynamical systems under the assumption that the system equations are completely unknown and only time series reflecting the evolution of the dynamical variables of the system are available. Our idea is to expand the vector field or map of the underlying system into a suitable function series and then to use the compressive-sensing technique to accurately estimate the various terms in the expansion. Examples using paradigmatic chaotic systems are provided to demonstrate our idea.

  16. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome presenting as fever of unknown origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Beladi, Fatma I

    2012-01-01

    Antiphospholipid syndrome is characterized by the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies with characteristic clinical manifestation, which include venous, arterial thrombosis, thrombotic microangiopathy, and recurrent fetal loss. The syndrome can be secondary to many causes including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) or "primary" antiphospholipid syndrome (APLS). We report a case of a man with catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS), which occurs when three or more organ systems are affected by thrombosis in less than a week. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is uncommon but often fatal. The patient received a successful treatment that controlled this disease and included intravenous heparin, antiplatelet, intravenous corticosteroid, and plasmapheresis.

  17. Recommendations on pre-hospital & early hospital management of acute heart failure : a consensus paper from the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology, the European Society of Emergency Medicine and the Society of Academic Emergency Medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mebazaa, Alexandre; Yilmaz, M. Birhan; Levy, Phillip; Ponikowski, Piotr; Peacock, W. Frank; Laribi, Said; Ristic, Arsen D.; Lambrinou, Ekaterini; Masip, Josep; Riley, Jillian P.; McDonagh, Theresa; Mueller, Christian; deFilippi, Christopher; Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Thiele, Holger; Piepoli, Massimo F.; Metra, Marco; Maggioni, Aldo; McMurray, John; Dickstein, Kenneth; Damman, Kevin; Seferovic, Petar M.; Ruschitzka, Frank; Leite-Moreira, Adelino F.; Bellou, Abdelouahab; Anker, Stefan D.; Filippatos, Gerasimos

    2015-01-01

    Acute heart failure is a fatal syndrome. Emergency physicians, cardiologists, intensivists, nurses and other health care providers have to cooperate to provide optimal benefit. However, many treatment decisions are opinion-based and few are evidenced-based. This consensus paper provides guidance to

  18. Predicting the timescales of catastrophic stratovolcano collapse - A model based on Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernack, A. V.; Procter, J. N.; Cronin, S. J.; Bebbington, M. S.; Price, R. C.; Smith, I. E. M.

    2012-04-01

    Andesitic stratovolcanoes or composite volcanoes are constructed in short, but rapid growth-rate eruption episodes to form steep, unstable edifices made of alternating layers of lavas, pyroclastic and epiclastic breccias. Stratovolcanoes regularly collapse catastrophically, producing highly destructive volcanic debris avalanches that present the extreme hazard scenario at all major continental volcanic arcs on Earth. However, models to forecast their likelihood and size are rare, typically because of poor age and volume constraints on their deposits in the geological record at any one volcano. Here we use one of the best-exposed long-term records of both volcanic sedimentation and geochemical evolution from a typical calc-alkaline andesitic volcano to develop a steady-state growth and volume-controlled model for the probability of catastrophic volcanic edifice collapse. The >130 kyrs history of Mt. Taranaki (2518 m) in New Zealand's North Island is punctuated by at least 14 catastrophic edifice failures. These involved all sectors of the volcano and produced debris avalanche deposits of >1 to >7.5 km3 with recurrence intervals of 2.5-15 kyrs. The largest of these sudden events removed as much as one third of the upper present-day equivalent cone. Individual debris avalanche units show similar sedimentary and geomorphic characteristics, suggesting that the nature of proto-edifices, failure trigger mechanisms and runout path conditions were similar for each event. Each collapse was followed by sustained renewed volcanism and cone regrowth, although there are no matching stepwise geochemical changes in the magma erupted. Instead a stable, slowly evolving magmatic system has prevailed, producing similar eruption styles and frequency throughout the volcanic history. The strong climate variations and extreme conditions during the Last Glacial are also uncorrelated with the timing or magnitudes of edifice collapse. These similar internal and external conditions resulted

  19. Vascular Endothelial Cell Function in Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome: A Case Report and Review of the Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Routy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS is a rare autoimmune condition, which has been associated with a high mortality rate. However, with current management that includes a combination of anticoagulation, glucocorticoid administration, and plasma exchange, mortality rate has declined. Despite survival improvement with new generation immunosuppressive agents, their mechanisms of action are poorly defined, and CAPS is still considered a high-risk complication in patients known with antiphospholipid antibody syndrome. Herein, we present a case of a 79-year-old male who presented with a myocardial infarct and renal failure secondary to CAPS following a splenectomy for immune thrombocytopenia. Regardless of rapid combination of first-line treatment and rituximab therapy, the patient developed lethal cardiogenic shock secondary to mitral valve papillary muscle necrosis. Discussion of the pathophysiology and avenues of future therapies in CAPS are reported.

  20. Catastrophic antiphospholipid antibody syndrome in a young woman in the postpartum period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Tatiana B; Kolade, Victor O; Kapadia, Avni S

    2010-01-01

    A 27-year-old Hispanic female was admitted to hospital with fever, a sudden marked decrease in vision, and multi-organ failure shortly after preterm delivery by cesarean section for eclampsia. Her past history was significant for a spontaneous first trimester abortion and one live birth complicated by intrauterine growth retardation. She was found to have several focal brain infarcts, exudative retinal detachment, bilateral adrenal hemorrhage, renal insufficiency, hypertension and subsequently hypotension. Positive anticardiolipin antibodies, lupus anticoagulant, and anti-B2 glycoprotein-I, as well as deranged coagulation profile and PTT mixing studies aided in the diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid antibody syndrome. Anticoagulation and high-dose intravenous steroids led to significant improvement in the patient's condition, including her vision.

  1. Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelby L Langer

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

  2. Early virological response to HIV treatment: can we predict who is likely to experience subsequent treatment failure? Results from an observational cohort study, London, UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brima, Nataliya; Lampe, Fiona C; Copas, Andrew; Gilson, Richard; Williams, Ian; Johnson, Margaret A; Phillips, Andrew N; Smith, Colette J

    2017-08-30

    For people living with HIV, the first antiretroviral treatment (ART) regimen offers the best chance for a good virological response. Early identification of those unlikely to respond to first-line ART could enable timely intervention and increase chances of a good initial treatment response. In this study we assess the extent to which the HIV RNA viral load (VL) at 1 and 3 months is predictive of first-line treatment outcome at 6 months. Methods All previously ART-naive individuals starting ART at two London centres since 2000 with baseline (-180 to 3 days) VL >500 c/mL had a VL measurement between 6 and 12 months after starting ART, and at least one at month 1 (4-60 days) or month 3 (61-120 days) were included. Lack of treatment response was defined as (i) VL >200 copies/mL at 6 months or (ii) VL >200 copies/mL at 6 months or simultaneous switch in drugs from at least two different drug classes before 6 months. The association with VL measurements at 1 and 3 months post-ART; change from pre-ART in these values; and CD4 count measurements at 1 and 3 months were assessed using logistic regression models. The relative fit of the models was compared using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). A total of 198 out of 3258 individuals (6%) experienced lack of treatment response at 6 months (definition i), increasing to 511 (16%) for definition (ii). Those with a 1-month (day 4-60 window) VL of 100,000 copies/ml had a 4%, 8%, 23% and 24% chance, respectively, of subsequently experiencing treatment non-response at 6 months (definition (i)). When considering the 3-month (day 61-120 window) VL, the chances of subsequently experiencing treatment non-response were, respectively, 3%, 25%, 67% and 75%. Results were similar for definition (ii). Whilst 3-month VL provides good discrimination between low and high risk of treatment failure, 1-month VL does not. Presence of a VL >10,000 copies/ml after 3 months of ART is a cutoff above which individuals are at a

  3. A CUSP CATASTROPHE, PRECURSORS PATTERN ANDEVOLUTION PROCESS OF ROCKBUST OF COAL PILLARUNDER A HARD ROCK SUBJECT TO ELASTIC SUPPORT

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐曾和; 徐小荷

    1996-01-01

    The rockburst of the coal pillar under a thick hard roof stratum is modelled as the instability failure problem of coal pillars under strata subject to elastic support. The instability mechanism of rockburst is studied by applying cusp catastrophic theory. The effects of the stiffness ratio of the system and loads imposed on the system on the rockburst are explicated.The factors affecting rockbursts are discussed. Based on them, the "evolution process, the forewarning regularity and forewarning sings of rockbursts are studied. It is indicated that the subsidence velocity of roof stratum, which increases quickly and tends to infinity, is the forewarning measurable signs of the rockbursts of coal pillar.

  4. Systems failure.

    OpenAIRE

    Macleod, Anna

    1998-01-01

    Systems Failure A solo exhibition of new work by Anna Macleod developed in conversation with curator Liz Burns. The Dock, Carrick on Shannon, Co Leitrim. Ireland. 12th February – 17th April 2010. The works for the exhibition Systems Failure include drawings, prints and small constructions that examine the delicate balance that exists between need and aspects of failure rooted in the relationship between humanity and land use. The work seeks to question the relationship between scient...

  5. 7 CFR 402.4 - Catastrophic Risk Protection Endorsement Provisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... total household income at or below the national poverty level for a family of four, or less than 50..., provided that you execute a High Risk Land Exclusion Option and obtain a catastrophic risk protection... the landowners must agree in writing to such arrangement and have their social security number...

  6. Catastrophe Theory: A Unified Model for Educational Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia; Elton, Lewis

    1990-01-01

    Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's theory of motivation at work was used to create a model of change that unifies and extends Lewin's two separate stage and force field models. This new model is used to analyze the behavior of academics as they adapt to the changing university environment. (Author/MLW)

  7. Catastrophic Head Injuries in High School and Collegiate Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Frederick O.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the incidence of catastrophic head injuries within high school and college sports. Data from a national surveillance system indicated that a football-related fatality occurred every year except one from 1945-99, mainly related to head injuries. From 1984-99, 69 football head-related injuries resulted in permanent disability. Deaths and…

  8. The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Image Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.

    2002-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the in flence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and t

  9. Alignment of Lyapunov Vectors: A Quantitative Criterion to Predict Catastrophes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beims, Marcus W; Gallas, Jason A C

    2016-11-15

    We argue that the alignment of Lyapunov vectors provides a quantitative criterion to predict catastrophes, i.e. the imminence of large-amplitude events in chaotic time-series of observables generated by sets of ordinary differential equations. Explicit predictions are reported for a Rössler oscillator and for a semiconductor laser with optoelectronic feedback.

  10. Catastrophic fire deaths: the numbers are back up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremblay, K J

    1994-01-01

    The number of catastrophic multiple-death fires in the United States rose in 1993 from the record low of 1992 to a level more consistent with that of recent years. Despite our efforts to highlight risk factors, we continue to see the same problems year after year.

  11. Alignment of Lyapunov Vectors: A Quantitative Criterion to Predict Catastrophes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beims, Marcus W.; Gallas, Jason A. C.

    2016-11-01

    We argue that the alignment of Lyapunov vectors provides a quantitative criterion to predict catastrophes, i.e. the imminence of large-amplitude events in chaotic time-series of observables generated by sets of ordinary differential equations. Explicit predictions are reported for a Rössler oscillator and for a semiconductor laser with optoelectronic feedback.

  12. The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Medical Image Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.

    2002-01-01

    In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and c

  13. Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of incre

  14. Enabling Unity of Effort in Response Activities during Complex Catastrophes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    catastrophe (including any hurricane, tornado, storm, high water , winddriven water , tidal wave, tsunami, earthquake, volcanic eruption , landslide...the Insurrection Act, and the Stafford Act. Perhaps the most efficient means to achieve unity of effort would be to consolidate all forces under a...possible under our federalist system of government, where respective authorities are divided between federal, state and local jurisdictions. The most

  15. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

    2015-08-25

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

  16. Catastrophic ice lake collapse in Aram Chaos, Mars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roda, M.; Kleinhans, M.G.; Zegers, T.E.; Oosthoek, J.H.P.

    2014-01-01

    Hesperian chaotic terrains have been recognized as the source of outflow channels formed by catastrophic outflows. Four main scenarios have been proposed for the formation of chaotic terrains that involve different amounts of water and single or multiple outflow events. Here, we test these scenarios

  17. Catastrophe Theory: A Unified Model for Educational Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cryer, Patricia; Elton, Lewis

    1990-01-01

    Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's theory of motivation at work was used to create a model of change that unifies and extends Lewin's two separate stage and force field models. This new model is used to analyze the behavior of academics as they adapt to the changing university environment. (Author/MLW)

  18. [Establishing the personal identity of the victims in aviation catastrophes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramov, S S; Alekseev, I V; Gedygushev, I A; Zaĭtsev, A B; Isaev, Iu S; Nedel'ko, N F; Miller, V V; Proskurin, V N; Khaĭrulin, E G; Shilin, A V

    1999-01-01

    Algorithm of organization measures and expert investigations is proposed, based on experience gained in expert studies during liquidation of aircraft catastrophes. It permits effective classification, differentiation, and identification of victims and is based on traditional and high technological methods of investigation.

  19. Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J.; Tong, Xin T.

    2015-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature. PMID:26261335

  20. A catastrophe theory model of the conflict helix, with tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummel, R J

    1987-10-01

    Macro social field theory has undergone extensive development and testing since the 1960s. One of these has been the articulation of an appropriate conceptual micro model--called the conflict helix--for understanding the process from conflict to cooperation and vice versa. Conflict and cooperation are viewed as distinct equilibria of forces in a social field; the movement between these equilibria is a jump, energized by a gap between social expectations and power, and triggered by some minor event. Quite independently, there also has been much recent application of catastrophe theory to social behavior, but usually without a clear substantive theory and lacking empirical testing. This paper uses catastrophe theory--namely, the butterfly model--mathematically to structure the conflict helix. The social field framework and helix provide the substantive interpretation for the catastrophe theory; and catastrophe theory provides a suitable mathematical model for the conflict helix. The model is tested on the annual conflict and cooperation between India and Pakistan, 1948 to 1973. The results are generally positive and encouraging.

  1. Community resilience and decision theory challenges for catastrophic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony

    2012-11-01

    Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd-following, group-think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard-to-envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building "disaster-resilient" communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Early generation pipeline girth welding practices and their implications for integrity management of North American pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amend, Bill [DNV Columbus, Inc., Yorba Linda, CA (United States)

    2010-07-01

    In response to the interest in ensuring the continued safe operation of vintage pipelines and the integrity management challenges related to those pipelines, PRCI sponsored in 2009 a project called {sup V}intage Girth Weld Defect Assessment - Comprehensive Study{sup .} Its objectives focused on girth welds made with the shielded metal arc welding (SMAW) process, particularly with regard to: review of approaches for evaluating the integrity of these welds; description of the typical characteristics and properties of SMAW vintage welds; determination of gaps in available information and technology that hinder effective integrity assessment and management of vintage girth welds. A very extensive literature review was performed as part of this project. Key findings include the following. The failure rate of early generation girth welds is low, especially when considering the rate of catastrophic failures. Pipeline girth welds are unlikely to fail unless subjected to axial strains that far exceed the strains related to internal pressure alone.

  3. Early recognition of heart failure in patients with diabetes type 2 in primary care. A prospective diagnostic efficiency study. (UHFO-DM2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Wit G Ardine

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We hypothesize that the prevalence of unknown heart failure in diabetic patients aged 60 years and over is relatively high (15% or more and that a cost-effective strategy can be developed to detect heart failure in these patients. The strategy is expected to include some signs and symptoms (such as dyspnoea, orthopnoea, pulmonary crepitations and laterally displaced apical beat, natriuretic peptide measurements (Amino-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide and possibly electrocardiography. In a subset of patients straightforward echocardiography may show to be cost-effective. With information from our study the detection of previously unknown heart failure in diabetic patients could be improved and enable the physician to initiate beneficial morbidity and mortality reducing heart failure treatment more timely. Primary objectives - To assess the prevalence of (previously unrecognised heart failure in primary care patients with diabetes type 2. - To establish the most cost-effective diagnostic strategy to detect unrecognised heart failure in these patients. Secondary objectives - To assess the impact of heart failure, and the combination of a new diagnosis with accordingly treatment in patients with diabetes type 2 on health status. Methods/Design Design: A prospective diagnostic efficiency study. Patient population: Patients aged 60 years and older with diabetes type 2 from primary care, enlisted with the diabetes service of the Diagnostic Center in Etten-Leur (SHL All participants will be investigated at the cardiology out-patient department of the regional hospital (Oosterschelde Hospital in Goes, Zeeland, the Netherlands during a single 1.5 hour standardised diagnostic assessment, including history taking, physical examination, electrocardiography, echocardiography, blood tests, and Health status questionnaires. Patients will be asked if we can contact them afterwards for follow-up and for repeating the questionnaires after

  4. Catastrophic optical bulk degradation (COBD) in high-power single- and multi-mode InGaAs-AlGaAs strained quantum well lasers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sin, Yongkun; Lingley, Zachary; Brodie, Miles; Presser, Nathan; Moss, Steven C.

    2017-02-01

    High-power single-mode (SM) and multi-mode (MM) InGaAs-AlGaAs strained quantum well (QW) lasers are critical components for both telecommunications and space satellite communications systems. However, little has been reported on failure modes and degradation mechanisms of high-power SM and MM InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers although it is crucial to understand failure modes and underlying degradation mechanisms in developing these lasers that meet lifetime requirements for space satellite systems, where extremely high reliability of these lasers is required. Our present study addresses the aforementioned issues by performing long-term life-tests followed by failure mode analysis (FMA) and physics of failure investigation. We performed long-term accelerated life-tests on state-of-the-art SM and MM InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers under ACC (automatic current control) mode. Our life-tests have accumulated over 25,000 test hours for SM lasers and over 35,000 test hours for MM lasers. FMA was performed on failed SM lasers using electron beam induced current (EBIC). This technique allowed us to identify failure types by observing dark line defects. All the SM failures we studied showed catastrophic and sudden degradation and all of these failures were bulk failures. Our group previously reported that bulk failure or COBD (catastrophic optical bulk damage) is the dominant failure mode of MM InGaAs-AlGaAs strained QW lasers. Since degradation mechanisms responsible for COBD are still not well understood, we also employed other techniques including focused ion beam (FIB) processing and high-resolution TEM to further study dark line defects and dislocations in post-aged lasers. Our long-term life-test results and FMA results are reported.

  5. Radiation Failures in Intel 14nm Microprocessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bossev, Dobrin P.; Duncan, Adam R.; Gadlage, Matthew J.; Roach, Austin H.; Kay, Matthew J.; Szabo, Carl; Berger, Tammy J.; York, Darin A.; Williams, Aaron; LaBel, K.; Ingalls, James D.

    2016-01-01

    In this study the 14 nm Intel Broadwell 5th generation core series 5005U-i3 and 5200U-i5 was mounted on Dell Inspiron laptops, MSI Cubi and Gigabyte Brix barebones and tested with Windows 8 and CentOS7 at idle. Heavy-ion-induced hard- and catastrophic failures do not appear to be related to the Intel 14nm Tri-Gate FinFET process. They originate from a small (9 m 140 m) area on the 32nm planar PCH die (not the CPU) as initially speculated. The hard failures seem to be due to a SEE but the exact physical mechanism has yet to be identified. Some possibilities include latch-ups, charge ion trapping or implantation, ion channels, or a combination of those (in biased conditions). The mechanism of the catastrophic failures seems related to the presence of electric power (1.05V core voltage). The 1064 nm laser mimics ionization radiation and induces soft- and hard failures as a direct result of electron-hole pair production, not heat. The 14nm FinFET processes continue to look promising for space radiation environments.

  6. Echocardiographic predictors of early in-hospital heart failure during first ST-elevation acute myocardial infarction: does myocardial performance index and left atrial volume improve diagnosis over conventional parameters of left ventricular function?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Machado Cristiano V

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF has been considered a major determinant of early outcome in acute myocardial infarction (AMI. Myocardial performance index (MPI has been associated to early evolution in AMI in a heterogeneous population, including non ST-elevation or previous AMI. Left atrial volume has been related with late evolution after AMI. We evaluated the independent role of clinical and echocardiographic variables including LVEF, MPI and left atrial volume in predicting early in-hospital congestive heart failure (CHF specifically in patients with a first isolated ST-elevation AMI. Methods Echocardiography was performed within 30 hours of chest pain in 95 patients with a first ST-elevation AMI followed during the first week of hospitalization. Several clinical and echocardiographic variables were analyzed. CHF was defined as Killip class ≥ II. Multivariate regression analysis was used to select independent predictor of in-hospital CHF. Results Early in-hospital CHF occurred in 29 (31% of patients. LVEF ≤ 0.45 was the single independent and highly significant predictor of early CHF among other clinical and echocardiographic variables (odds ratio 17.0; [95% CI 4.1 - 70.8]; p Conclusion For patients with first, isolated ST-elevation AMI, LVEF assessed by echocardiography still constitutes a strong and accurate independent predictor of early in-hospital CHF, superior to isolated MPI and left atrial volume in this particular subset of patients.

  7. Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome Presenting as Ischemic Pancreatitis in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajit Vyas

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Context Antiphospholipid syndrome is often associated with systemic lupus erythematosus. Both syndromes have different clinical manifestations based on organ involvement. Antiphospholipid syndrome commonly causes spontaneous abortions, cerebral vascular occlusion, and deep venous thrombosis. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome occurs when three or more organ systems are affected by thromboses in less than a week. Case report We report a unique case of a young woman with a history of systemic lupus erythematosus and antiphospholipid syndrome who presented with recurrent ischemic pancreatitis. Pancreatitis was refractory to anticoagulation and low dose steroids. Secondary to recurrence of pancreatitis and other organ involvement, she was treated as a presumed case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome. Aggressive treatment with plasmapheresis, corticosteroids, cyclophosphamide, and anticoagulation eventually led to her recovery. Conclusion Awareness of this rare, rapidly fatal medical condition prompts vital, early intervention to improve patients’ survival. This case report aims to add to the limited therapeutic data available as well as suggest a possible approach to treating this rare syndrome with very high morbidity and mortality.

  8. Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

    2017-04-01

    Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

  9. Overview of catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes in power electronic circuits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

    2013-01-01

    Emerging applications (e.g. electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, more electric aircrafts, etc.) have brought more stringent reliability constrains into power electronic products because of safety requirements and maintenance cost issues. To improve the reliability of power electronics, be...

  10. Catastrophic failure of a raise boring machine during underground reaming operations

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    James, A

    1997-03-01

    Full Text Available been reamed over a period of a few months at almost the full working capacity of the equipment. Mains water was used as the flushing medium. The torque and thrust capabilities of the raise borer are as follows...: ? maximum torque capacity: 494,876 N m (365,000 ft lb) ? maximum thrust capacity: 4454 kN (1,000,000 lb) DRIVE HEAD BOLT COVER ~ "CENTRE BOLT" I \\]T-rI"ITIT'~ll lli ii !i Fig. 5. Cutaway diagram of the drive head...

  11. Formation and failure of volcanic debris dams in the Chakachatna River valley associated with eruptions of the Spurr volcanic complex, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waythomas, C.F.

    2001-01-01

    The formation of lahars and a debris avalanche during Holocene eruptions of the Spurr volcanic complex in south-central Alaska have led to the development of volcanic debris dams in the Chakachatna River valley. Debris dams composed of lahar and debris-avalanche deposits formed at least five times in the last 8000-10,000 years and most recently during eruptions of Crater Peak vent in 1953 and 1992. Water impounded by a large debris avalanche of early Holocene (?) age may have destabilized an upstream glacier-dammed lake causing a catastrophic flood on the Chakachatna River. A large alluvial fan just downstream of the debris-avalanche deposit is strewn with boulders and blocks and is probably the deposit generated by this flood. Application of a physically based dam-break model yields estimates of peak discharge (Qp) attained during failure of the debris-avalanche dam in the range 104 debris dams were in the range 103 debris dams have formed at other volcanoes in the Cook Inlet region, Aleutian arc, and Wrangell Mountains but apparently did not fail rapidly or result in large or catastrophic outflows. Steep valley topography and frequent eruptions at volcanoes in this region make for significant hazards associated with the formation and failure of volcanic debris dams. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

  12. Low dose failures of hardened DC-DC power converters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehman, J.; Yui, C.; Rax, B. G.; Miyahira, T. F.; Weideman, M.; Schrick, P.; Swift, G. M.; Johnston, A. H.

    2002-01-01

    Box-level total dose testing of the FOG (Fiber Optic Gyro) by IXSEA at ESA's GammabeamFacility were abruptly terminated at 8krad (Si) due to catastrophic failure (complete shutdown). This was unexpected because all components within the gyro were supposedly radiation tolerant. Further testing showed that the components responsible for the failure were two DC-DC converters, manufactured by Interpoint, that stopped regulating shortly before shutdown. This paper summarizes diagnostic test results for the converters to determine the underlying cause of the unexpected failure at low levels of radiation.

  13. Catastrophic senescence and semelparity in the Penna aging model

    CERN Document Server

    Pinol, C M N

    2010-01-01

    The catastrophic senescence of the Pacific salmon is among the initial tests used to validate the Penna aging model. Based on the mutation accumulation theory, the sudden decrease in fitness following reproduction may be solely attributed to the semelparity of the species. In this work, we report other consequences of mutation accumulation. Contrary to earlier findings, such dramatic manifestation of aging depends not only on the choice of breeding strategy but also on the value of the reproduction age, R, and the mutation threshold, T. Senescence is catastrophic when T\\leq R. As the organism's tolerance for harmful genetic mutations increases, the aging process becomes more gradual. We observe senescence that is threshold dependent whenever T>R. That is, the sudden drop in survival rate occurs at age equal to the mutation threshold value.

  14. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS): update from the 'CAPS Registry'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R

    2010-04-01

    Although less than 1% of patients with the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) develop the catastrophic variant, its potentially lethal outcome emphasizes its importance in clinical medicine today. However, the rarity of this variant makes it extraordinarily difficult to study in any systematic way. In order to put together all of the published case reports as well as the new diagnosed cases from all over the world, an international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry) was created in 2000 by the European Forum on Antiphospholipid Antibodies (see http://www.med.ub.es/MIMMUN/FORUM/CAPS.HTM). Currently, it documents the entire clinical, laboratory and therapeutic data of more than 300 patients whose data has been fully registered.

  15. Heart failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    2008275 Relationship of calcineure in mRNA level in peripheral blood and cardiac muscle of patients with heart failure.WANG Mengmeng(王萌萌),et al.Dept Cardiol,Shandong Prov Hosp,Shandong Univ,Jinan 250021.Chin Cir J 2008;23(2):113-116.Objective To study the relationship of calcineurin mRNA level between peripheral lymphocytes and cardiac muscles of patients with chronic heart failure.Methods

  16. Heart failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    2008037 Factors associated with efficacy of cardiac resynchronization therapy for patients with congestive heart failure. SHI Haoying(史浩颖), et al. Dept Cardiol, Zhongshan Hosp Fudan Univ, Shanghai 200032. Chin J Cardiol 2007;35(12):1099-1163. Objective The efficacy of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in patients with congestive heart failure and the potential factors associated with responder or nonresponder were investigated. Methods Fifty

  17. Iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in infants: Potentially catastrophic when overlooked

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yousef El-Gohary

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Acquired diaphragmatic hernias are a rare occurrence. They can result from blunt, penetrating or inadvertent iatrogenic injury. When overlooked they can potentially be catastrophic. We report a case of iatrogenic diaphragmatic hernia in a six-month old infant presenting with acute respiratory distress as a result of strangulated bowel herniating into the left hemithorax caused from a traumatic chest tube insertion in the neonatal period.

  18. Le gouvernement mondial des catastrophes « naturelles »

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandrine Revet

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Depuis la fin des années 1980, une tentative de gouvernement international des catastrophes dites « naturelles » a progressivement vu le jour. Celui-ci prétend coordonner à l’échelle internationale des actions relevant à la fois de la prévention des risques et de la gestion de crise. L’article propose de décrire ce processus en en retraçant les grandes étapes, depuis la Décennie internationale pour la prévention des catastrophes naturelles de l’ONU (1990-1999 jusqu’aux négociations ayant mené au Cadre d’action de Hyogo (CAH, 2005-2015. Il mettra en lumière les grandes tensions qui ont animé ce processus et qui révèlent les différentes approches adoptées face aux catastrophes naturelles : mettre en place des politiques de prévention qui misent sur la transformation en profondeur des choix de développement ou insister sur les capacités technologiques de prévision, de communication de l’alerte et de gestion des crises provoquées par les catastrophes lorsqu’elles surviennent ? Nous nous intéresserons enfin aux enjeux qui seront soulevés en 2015 par les négociations du prochain cadre d’action international CAH2 lors de la conférence mondiale qui se tiendra à Sendaï au Japon.

  19. Functional Catastrophe Analysis of Collapse Mechanism for Shallow Tunnels with Considering Settlement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Limit analysis is a practical and meaningful method to predict the stability of geomechanical properties. This work investigates the pore water effect on new collapse mechanisms and possible collapsing block shapes of shallow tunnels with considering the effects of surface settlement. The analysis is performed within the framework of upper bound theorem. Furthermore, the NL nonlinear failure criterion is used to examine the influence of different factors on the collapsing shape and the minimum supporting pressure in shallow tunnels. Analytical solutions derived by functional catastrophe theory for the two different shape curves which describe the distinct characteristics of falling blocks up and down the water level are obtained by virtual work equations under the variational principle. By considering that the mechanical properties of soil are not affected by the presence of underground water, the strength parameters in NL failure criterion can be taken to be the same under and above the water table. According to the numerical results in this work, the influences on the size of collapsing block different parameters have are presented in the tables and the upper bounds on the loads required to resist collapse are derived and illustrated in the form of supporting forces graphs that account for the variation of the embedded depth and other factors.

  20. Does landscape diversity reduce the risk of catastrophic tipping points?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temme, Arnaud; Baartman, Jantiene; Saco, Patricia; Nijp, Jelmer; Langston, Abigail

    2016-04-01

    Most studies about tipping points are based on computer simulations. These simulations, based on first principles of vegetation growth and competition, are not only able to explain a surprising number of vegetation patterns occurring in natural ecosystems, but they also predict shifts between multiple stable states that may be catastrophic. Initially, such studies were performed on simplistic 'non-landscapes' - flats or straight slopes. Recently, we have been able to resolve geomorphic redistribution processes more accurately, so that vegetation patterning can be simulated in more complex landscapes. Here, we present a first look into how such 'real landscapes' affect the risk of catastrophic shifts. We test the hypothesis that increasing complexity and organisation in a landscape reduce the risk of catastrophic shifts by effectively creating mini-refugia where vegetation persists over a wider range of boundary conditions such as precipitation. Depending on the extent of a study area, large complexity could even change the system from one with multiple stable states into one with only one stable state.

  1. Catastrophic subsidence: An environmental hazard, shelby county, Alabama

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamoreaux, Philip E.; Newton, J. G.

    1986-03-01

    Induced sinkholes (catastrophic subsidence) are those caused or accelerated by human activities These sinkholes commonly result from a water level decline due to pumpage Construction activities in a cone of depression greatly increases the likelihood of sinkhole occurrence Almost all occur where cavities develop in unconsolidated deposits overlying solution openings in carbonate rocks. Triggering mechanisms resulting from water level declines are (1) loss of buoyant support of the water, (2) increased gradient and water velocity, (3) water-level fluctuations, and (4) induced recharge Construction activities triggering sinkhole development include ditching, removing overburden, drilling, movement of heavy equipment, blasting and the diversion and impoundment of drainage Triggering mechanisms include piping, saturation, and loading Induced sinkholes resulting from human water development/management activities are most predictable in a youthful karst area impacted by groundwater withdrawals Shape, depth, and timing of catastrophic subsidence can be predicted in general terms Remote sensing techniques are used in prediction of locations of catastrophic subsidence. This provides a basis for design and relocation of structures such as a gas pipeline, dam, or building Utilization of techniques and a case history of the relocation of a pipeline are described

  2. Bifurcation and catastrophe of seepage flow system in broken rock

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MIAO Xie-xing; LI Shun-cai; CHEN Zhan-qing

    2009-01-01

    The study of dynamical behavior of water or gas flows in broken rock is a basic research topic among a series of key projects about stability control of the surrounding rocks in mines and the prevention of some disasters such as water inrush or gas outburst and the protection of the groundwater resource. It is of great theoretical and engineering importance in respect of promo-tion of security in mine production and sustainable development of the coal industry. According to the non-Darcy property of seepage flow in broken rock dynamic equations of non-Darcy and non-steady flows in broken rock are established. By dimensionless transformation, the solution diagram of steady-states satisfying the given boundary conditions is obtained. By numerical analysis of low relaxation iteration, the dynamic responses corresponding to the different flow parameters have been obtained. The stability analysis of the steady-states indicate that a saddle-node bifurcaton exists in the seepage flow system of broken rock. Consequently, using catastrophe theory, the fold catastrophe model of seepage flow instability has been obtained. As a result, the bifurcation curves of the seepage flow systems with different control parameters are presented and the standard potential function is also given with respect to the generalized state variable for the fold catastrophe of a dynamic system of seepage flow in broken rock.

  3. A modeling framework for system restoration from cascading failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chaoran; Li, Daqing; Zio, Enrico; Kang, Rui

    2014-01-01

    System restoration from cascading failures is an integral part of the overall defense against catastrophic breakdown in networked critical infrastructures. From the outbreak of cascading failures to the system complete breakdown, actions can be taken to prevent failure propagation through the entire network. While most analysis efforts have been carried out before or after cascading failures, restoration during cascading failures has been rarely studied. In this paper, we present a modeling framework to investigate the effects of in-process restoration, which depends strongly on the timing and strength of the restoration actions. Furthermore, in the model we also consider additional disturbances to the system due to restoration actions themselves. We demonstrate that the effect of restoration is also influenced by the combination of system loading level and restoration disturbance. Our modeling framework will help to provide insights on practical restoration from cascading failures and guide improvements of reliability and resilience of actual network systems.

  4. Early detection of materials degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyendorf, Norbert

    2017-02-01

    Lightweight components for transportation and aerospace applications are designed for an estimated lifecycle, taking expected mechanical and environmental loads into account. The main reason for catastrophic failure of components within the expected lifecycle are material inhomogeneities, like pores and inclusions as origin for fatigue cracks, that have not been detected by NDE. However, material degradation by designed or unexpected loading conditions or environmental impacts can accelerate the crack initiation or growth. Conventional NDE methods are usually able to detect cracks that are formed at the end of the degradation process, but methods for early detection of fatigue, creep, and corrosion are still a matter of research. For conventional materials ultrasonic, electromagnetic, or thermographic methods have been demonstrated as promising. Other approaches are focused to surface damage by using optical methods or characterization of the residual surface stresses that can significantly affect the creation of fatigue cracks. For conventional metallic materials, material models for nucleation and propagation of damage have been successfully applied for several years. Material microstructure/property relations are well established and the effect of loading conditions on the component life can be simulated. For advanced materials, for example carbon matrix composites or ceramic matrix composites, the processes of nucleation and propagation of damage is still not fully understood. For these materials NDE methods can not only be used for the periodic inspections, but can significantly contribute to the material scientific knowledge to understand and model the behavior of composite materials.

  5. Mitotic Catastrophe in BC3H1 Cells following Yessotoxin Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korsnes, Mónica Suárez; Korsnes, Reinert

    2017-01-01

    The marine toxin yessotoxin (YTX) can cause various cytotoxic effects depending on cell type and cell line. It is well known to trigger distinct mechanisms for programmed cell death which may overlap or cross-talk. The present contribution provides the first evidence that YTX can cause genotoxicity and induce mitotic catastrophe which can lead to different types of cell death. This work also demonstrates potential information gain from non-intrusive computer-based tracking of many individual cells during long time. Treatment of BC3H1 cells at their exponential growth phase causes atypical nuclear alterations and formation of giant cells with multiple nuclei. These are the most prominent morphological features of mitotic catastrophe. Giant cells undergo slow cell death in a necrosis-like manner. However, apoptotic-like cell death is also observed in these cells. Electron microscopy of treated BC3H1 cells reveal uncondensed chromatin and cells with double nuclei. Activation of p-p53, p-H2AX, p-Chk1, p-ATM, and p-ATR and down-regulation of p-Chk2 indicate DNA damage response and cell cycle deregulation. Micronuclei formation further support this evidence. Data from tracking single cells reveal that YTX treatment suppresses a second round of cell division in BC3H1 cells. These findings suggest that YTX can induce genomic alterations or imperfections in chromosomal segregation leading to permanent mitotic failure. This understanding extends the list of effects from YTX and which are of interest to control cancer and tumor progression.

  6. Cascading failures and the emergence of cooperation in evolutionary-game based models of social and economical networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen-Xu; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Armbruster, Dieter

    2011-09-01

    We study catastrophic behaviors in large networked systems in the paradigm of evolutionary games by incorporating a realistic "death" or "bankruptcy" mechanism. We find that a cascading bankruptcy process can arise when defection strategies exist and individuals are vulnerable to deficit. Strikingly, we observe that, after the catastrophic cascading process terminates, cooperators are the sole survivors, regardless of the game types and of the connection patterns among individuals as determined by the topology of the underlying network. It is necessary that individuals cooperate with each other to survive the catastrophic failures. Cooperation thus becomes the optimal strategy and absolutely outperforms defection in the game evolution with respect to the "death" mechanism. Our results can be useful for understanding large-scale catastrophe in real-world systems and in particular, they may yield insights into significant social and economical phenomena such as large-scale failures of financial institutions and corporations during an economic recession.

  7. Landslide Catastrophes and Disaster Risk Reduction: A GIS Framework for Landslide Prevention and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Wang

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available As catastrophic phenomena, landslides often cause large-scale socio-economic destruction including loss of life, economic collapse, and human injury. In addition, landslides can impair the functioning of critical infrastructure and destroy cultural heritage and ecological systems. In order to build a more landslide resistant and resilient society, an original GIS-based decision support system is put forth in order to help emergency managers better prepare for and respond to landslide disasters. The GIS-based landslide monitoring and management system includes a Central Repository System (CRS, Disaster Data Processing Modules (DDPM, a Command and Control System (CCS and a Portal Management System (PMS. This architecture provides valuable insights into landslide early warning, landslide risk and vulnerability analyses, and critical infrastructure damage assessments. Finally, internet-based communications are used to support landslide disaster modelling, monitoring and management.

  8. Eculizumab Induces Sustained Remission in a Patient With Refractory Primary Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zikos, Thomas A; Sokolove, Jeremy; Ahuja, Neera; Berube, Caroline

    2015-09-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is fatal in approximately 44% of patients in whom the diagnosis is made, thus demonstrating the inadequacy of current medical therapy. In this report, we discuss a 47-year-old man with a known history of primary antiphospholipid syndrome, who presented with CAPS after undergoing cholecystectomy and a treatment-refractory early relapse after development of colitis. Given the potential therapeutic efficacy of complement inhibition in antiphospholipid syndrome, the patient was administered eculizumab, a terminal complement inhibitor. Progressive clinical improvement and laboratory improvement were observed upon initiation of eculizumab. He has remained in remission for over 16 months of follow-up while on eculizumab. In conclusion, this case represents successful use of eculizumab for the treatment of primary CAPS.

  9. Stable isotope composition of biogas allows early warning of complete process failure as a result of ammonia inhibition in anaerobic digesters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Zuopeng; Hu, Meng; Harms, Hauke; Richnow, Hans Hermann; Liebetrau, Jan; Nikolausz, Marcell

    2014-09-01

    Four 15-L lab-scale continuous stirred tank reactors were operated under mesophilic conditions to investigate the effect of ammonia inhibition. Stable isotope fingerprinting of biogas was applied as a process monitoring tool. Ammonia inhibition was initiated by amendment of chicken manure to maize silage fed reactors. During the accumulation of ammonia, the concentration of volatile fatty acids increased while the biogas production and pH decreased. However, in one reactor, an inhibited steady state with stable gas production even at high ammonia levels was achieved, while the other reactor proceeded to complete process failure. A depletion of the δ(13)CH4 and δ(13)CO2 values preceded the process inhibition. Moreover, the stable isotope composition of biogas also forecasted the complete process failure earlier than other standard parameters. The stable isotope analyses of biogas have a potential for mechanistic insights in anaerobic processes, and may be used to pre-warn process failure under stress conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A test of catastrophic transition mechanisms in the Chihuahuan Desert Grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svejcar, L.; Bestelmeyer, B.; Duniway, M.

    2012-12-01

    Dryland ecosystems are known to undergo transitions from grassland or savanna states to shrub-dominated and/or eroded states with persistent loss of herbaceous vegetation. Theoretical models for predicting critical thresholds between states have been examined in drylands to search for early warning indicators, yet there is scant empirical evidence for the mechanisms. The models postulate that larger patches are favorable environments for plant growth in arid ecosystems due to short-range facilitation. The breakdown of large patches is thought to trigger catastrophic transitions. We tested assumptions underpinning these models using an experiment in black grama grassland (Bouteloua eriopoda Torr.) of the Chihuahuan Desert in which variable grazing intensities produced a wide range of patch sizes in plots with differing mesquite shrub (Prosopis glandulosa Torr.) densities. We tested the hypothesis that growth, reproductive capability, and reproductive success of black grama plants would be greater in larger plant patches than in smaller patches. From 2010-2012 we measured numbers of stolons, ramets, rooted ramets and young individual plants associated with focal black grama plants and fixed areas within each patch. We found that the largest patches did not always feature the highest rates of grass reproduction across years, suggesting that patch size does not consistently indicate the patch persistence mechanisms proposed in catastrophic transition models. Other factors, such as resource competition within patches, may play important roles in black grama grasslands. When assessing rangeland conditions in the Chihuahuan desert grasslands, theoretical models of critical thresholds and early warning indicators should be applied with caution.

  11. School failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dworkin, P H

    1989-04-01

    Numerous factors may contribute to a child's failure to learn. Certain causes of school failure, such as specific learning disabilities, mental retardation, sensory impairment, and chronic illness may be regarded as intrinsic characteristics of the child. Other causes, such as family dysfunction, social problems, and ineffective schooling, are characteristics of the child's environment. Still other influences on school performance, such as temperamental dysfunction, attention deficits, and emotional illness, may be viewed as the consequence of the interaction between the child and his or her environment. The reasons for a child's school failure must not be considered in isolation but rather within the context of social and environmental circumstances. Evaluation must consider the myriad of reasons for a child's school failure and attempt to identify "clusters" of adverse influences on school performance. Detailed information must be sought from the student, parents, and school system through the history and physical examination. Questionnaires are useful in data gathering. Ancillary methods of assessment that may be of value include neurodevelopmental screening and laboratory studies. Further investigations and referrals, particularly psychoeducational evaluation, are of major importance. Traditional roles of the pediatrician in school failure include the treatment of underlying medical conditions, counseling, the coordination of further investigations and referrals, and the facilitation of communication with community services and resources. Participation with other disciplines in the development of a child's educational plan is feasible and useful.

  12. Cytokines and organ failure in acute pancreatitis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malmstrøm, Marie Louise; Hansen, Mark Berner; Andersen, Anders Møller

    2012-01-01

    We aimed at synchronously examining the early time course of 4 proinflammatory cytokines as predictive factors for development of organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).......We aimed at synchronously examining the early time course of 4 proinflammatory cytokines as predictive factors for development of organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP)....

  13. New early warning system for gravity-driven ruptures based on codetection of acoustic signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faillettaz, J.

    2016-12-01

    Gravity-driven rupture phenomena in natural media - e.g. landslide, rockfalls, snow or ice avalanches - represent an important class of natural hazards in mountainous regions. To protect the population against such events, a timely evacuation often constitutes the only effective way to secure the potentially endangered area. However, reliable prediction of imminence of such failure events remains challenging due to the nonlinear and complex nature of geological material failure hampered by inherent heterogeneity, unknown initial mechanical state, and complex load application (rainfall, temperature, etc.). Here, a simple method for real-time early warning that considers both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation is proposed. This new method capitalizes on codetection of elastic waves emanating from microcracks by multiple and spatially separated sensors. Event-codetection is considered as surrogate for large event size with more frequent codetected events (i.e., detected concurrently on more than one sensor) marking imminence of catastrophic failure. Simple numerical model based on a Fiber Bundle Model considering signal attenuation and hypothetical arrays of sensors confirms the early warning potential of codetection principles. Results suggest that although statistical properties of attenuated signal amplitude could lead to misleading results, monitoring the emergence of large events announcing impeding failure is possible even with attenuated signals depending on sensor network geometry and detection threshold. Preliminary application of the proposed method to acoustic emissions during failure of snow samples has confirmed the potential use of codetection as indicator for imminent failure at lab scale. The applicability of such simple and cheap early warning system is now investigated at a larger scale (hillslope). First results of such a pilot field experiment are presented and analysed.

  14. Situational vs. dispositional measurement of catastrophizing: Associations with pain responses in multiple samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Claudia M.; Kronfli, Tarek; Buenaver, Luis F.; Smith, Michael T.; Berna, Chantal; Haythornthwaite, Jennifer A.; Edwards, Robert R.

    2009-01-01

    Catastrophizing is widely recognized as an important risk factor for adverse pain-related outcomes. However, questions remain surrounding the details of its assessment. In particular, recent laboratory studies suggest that evaluation of “situational” catastrophizing (i.e., catastrophizing measured during or directly after the administration of noxious stimulation) may provide information distinct from that obtained by standard, or “dispositional” measures which assess individuals’ recall of catastrophizing in daily life. However, comparatively little research has systematically investigated the inter-relationships and properties of these two different forms of pain-related catastrophizing. The current study evaluated both situational and dispositional catastrophizing measures within multiple samples: healthy individuals (N=84), patients with painful temporomandibular joint disorders (TMD; N=48), and patients with painful arthritis (N=43). All participants first completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS)49, and then underwent psychophysical pain testing, which included heat, cold, and pressure pain. Participants then completed a situational catastrophizing measure with reference to the laboratory pain he/she had just undergone. Situational catastrophizing scores were not significantly correlated with dispositional PCS scores in the healthy participants and arthritis patients, though they were associated in TMD patients. Situational catastrophizing was more strongly associated with experimental pain responses than dispositional PCS scores for the healthy subjects and arthritis patients. In general, higher levels of situational catastrophizing were associated with lower pain thresholds and higher pain ratings across all 3 samples. The findings highlight the importance of multi-dimensional assessment of pain-related catastrophizing, and suggests a role for measuring catastrophizing related to specific, definable events. PMID:20439057

  15. Respiratory failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1997-01-01

    970318 A study on evoked potentials in cor pul-monale patients with chronic respiratory failure.QIAO Hui(乔慧), et al. Beijing Neurosurg Instit,Beijing, 100050. Chin J Geriatr 1997; 16(1): 43-45. Objective: Evoked protential was used to detect thechange of brain function in cor pulmonale patients with

  16. Heart failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    2009170 Curcumin attenuates left ventricular dysfunction and remodeling in rabbits with chronic heart failure. TANG Yanhong(唐艳红),et al.Dept Cardiol,Renmin Hosp,Wuhan Univ,Wuhan 430060.Chin J Cardiol,2009;37(3):262-267.

  17. Heart failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    2008411 Expression of S100B during heart failure in rats. JIANG Zhenni(蒋珍妮), et al. Dept Cardiol, 2nd Affili Hosp, Zhejiang Univ, Coll Med Hangzhou 310009. Chin J Emerg Med 2008;17(5):475-478. Objective To evaluate the value of S100B gene on cardiovascular remodeling in rats with abdominal aorta coarctation.

  18. Heart failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1997-01-01

    970284 Effects of enalapril on heart rate variabilityin patients with congestive heart failure. ZHANGYouhua(章友华), et a1. Dept Cardiol, Cardiovasc Instit& Fuwai Hosp, CAMS & PUMC, Beijing, 100037. ChinCir J 1996; 11(2): 729-732.

  19. Failure Modes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, K. P.; Burcharth, H. F.; Ibsen, Lars Bo;

    1999-01-01

    The present appendix contains the derivation of ten different limit state equations divided on three different failure modes. Five of the limit state equations can be used independently of the characteristics of the subsoil, whereas the remaining five can be used for either drained or undrained...

  20. Eigentumors for prediction of treatment failure in patients with early-stage breast cancer using dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI: a feasibility study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, H. M.; van der Velden, B. H. M.; E Loo, C.; Gilhuijs, K. G. A.

    2017-08-01

    We present a radiomics model to discriminate between patients at low risk and those at high risk of treatment failure at long-term follow-up based on eigentumors: principal components computed from volumes encompassing tumors in washin and washout images of pre-treatment dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE-) MR images. Eigentumors were computed from the images of 563 patients from the MARGINS study. Subsequently, a least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) selected candidates from the components that contained 90% of the variance of the data. The model for prediction of survival after treatment (median follow-up time 86 months) was based on logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was applied and area-under-the-curve (AUC) values were computed as measures of training and cross-validated performances. The discriminating potential of the model was confirmed using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and log-rank tests. From the 322 principal components that explained 90% of the variance of the data, the LASSO selected 28 components. The ROC curves of the model yielded AUC values of 0.88, 0.77 and 0.73, for the training, leave-one-out cross-validated and bootstrapped performances, respectively. The bootstrapped Kaplan-Meier survival curves confirmed significant separation for all tumors (P  treatment eigentumors for use in prediction of treatment failure of breast cancer.

  1. Junctional Bradycardia as Early Sign of Digoxin Toxicity in a Premature Infant with Congestive Heart Failure due to a Left to Right Shunt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasgupta, Soham; Aly, Ashraf M; Jain, Sunil K

    2016-03-01

    Introduction Congestive heart failure due to left to right cardiac shunt is usually managed medically with diuretics, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, and, in some cases, with the addition of digoxin. Case We report a 31-week gestation premature male infant who did not respond to such treatment and developed hyperaldosteronism and severe hypokalemia secondary to activation of the renin angiotensin aldosterone system. The hypokalemia was not responsive to intravenous KCL supplementation and induced digoxin toxicity despite a relatively normal digoxin level. The earliest signs of digoxin toxicity in the patient were junctional rhythm and bradycardia. The discontinuation of digoxin and the administration of digoxin specific immunoglobulin fragments (Fab) reversed those changes. The addition of spironolactone (an aldosterone antagonist) had a dramatic effect, resulting in clinical improvement of the patient coupled with normalization of Q4 serum and urine electrolytes. Conclusion Serum Digoxin level alone may fail as an independent guide in the diagnosis of digoxin toxicity when hypokalemia is present. In premature infants with congestive heart failure and hypokalemia, addition of an aldosterone antagonist should be considered.

  2. Catastrophic complication following injection and extracorporeal shock wave therapy of a medial femoral condyle subchondral cystic lesion in a 14 year old Arabian mare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darla K. Moser

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This report describes fibrous cyst lining injection and extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT of a medial femoral condyle (MFC subchondral cystic lesion (SCL resulting in catastrophic MFC fracture in an Arabian mare. The mare was presented for evaluation of a severe hind limb lameness of approximately 4 months duration. On presentation, a non-weight bearing lameness of the left hind limb with severe effusion and soft tissue swelling of the stifle region was noted. Radiographic evaluation of the stifle revealed a large SCL of the MFC with associated osteoarthritis. Arthroscopic guided intra-lesional injection of the SCL with corticosteroids and autologous bone marrow concentrate was performed followed by ESWT of the MFC. The mare was discharged walking comfortably 48-hours post-operatively. An acute increase in lameness was noted 14 days post-operatively. Imaging revealed catastrophic fracture of the left MFC. Possible mechanisms leading to failure of the MFC secondary to the described treatment are discussed.

  3. Improving Communication About Potentially Catastrophic Risks of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, R. E. T.; Stern, N. H.

    2014-12-01

    Scientific assessments of future climate change tend to focus on central estimates and may understate or ignore the significance of low probability outcomes that may have extremely severe consequences. This relative neglect of tail risks is partly a result of traditions in prediction and forecasting, and conservatism about phenomena for which few data and information exist. The misinterpretation of such scientific assessments can have adverse results. Even though the central estimates of high emissions scenarios present obvious dangers, the tails of lower emissions scenarios still contain very serious risks which may be overlooked by policy-makers. Economic analyses may omit the possibility of catastrophic impacts, leading to substantial under-estimates of damage caused by climate change. So how do we avoid these shortcomings and achieve more effective communication about the risks of climate change? The scientific assessments of climate change differ in significant ways from the formal risk assessment methods successfully employed in other fields. We outline a 'good practice' approach to the identification, assessment and communication of potentially catastrophic risks based on examples from sectors such as civil engineering, national security and insurance. We illustrate how this 'good practice' approach could be applied to provide a better presentation of some catastrophic tail risks that are outlined in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The risks we consider include the possibility of 'extreme' rises in temperature and sea level lying outside the central projections described in the report, and the plausibility of significant releases of methane from the thawing of permafrost. Using these illustrations, we examine how scientific researchers can improve their communication about climate change to assist decision-making, and how policy-makers and politicians might respond differently to alternative presentations of

  4. ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt;

    2013-01-01

    induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells...... origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...

  5. Dissipative tunneling and orthogonality catastrophe in molecular transistors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Braig, S.; Flensberg, Karsten

    2004-01-01

    of the charge on the molecule to the vibrational modes of the environment has on the I-V characteristics. We find that, for comparable characteristic length scales of the van der Waals and electrostatic interaction of the molecule with the environmental vibrational modes, the I-V characteristics...... are qualitatively changed from what one would expect from orthogonality catastrophe and develop a steplike discontinuity at the onset of conduction. For the case of very different length scales, we recover dissipation consistent with modeling the electrostatic forces as an external influence on the system comprised...

  6. Blue sky catastrophe as applied to modeling of cardiac rhythms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glyzin, S. D.; Kolesov, A. Yu.; Rozov, N. Kh.

    2015-07-01

    A new mathematical model for the electrical activity of the heart is proposed. The model represents a special singularly perturbed three-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations with one fast and two slow variables. A characteristic feature of the system is that its solution performs nonclassical relaxation oscillations and simultaneously undergoes a blue sky catastrophe bifurcation. Both these factors make it possible to achieve a phenomenological proximity between the time dependence of the fast component in the model and an ECG of the human heart.

  7. Early Bayesian modeling of a potassium lab-on-a-chip for monitoring of heart failure patients at increased risk of hyperkalaemia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Wetering, Gijs; Steuten, Lotte Maria Gertruda; von Birgelen, Clemens; Adang, E.M.; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: Innovative point-of-care (POC) diagnostics are likely to have a strong impact on 18 health care. The aim of this study is to conduct an early assessment of a point-of-care chip 19 for the detection of a pathological deviation of the potassium levels in patients at increased 20 risk,

  8. Time for first antibiotic dose is not predictive for the early clinical failure of moderate-severe community-acquired pneumonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruns, A. H. W.; Oosterheert, J. J.; Hustinx, W. N. M.; Gaillard, C. A. J. M.; Hak, E.; Hoepelman, A. I. M.

    2009-01-01

    The time to first antibiotic dose (TFAD) has been mentioned as an important performance indicator in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). However, the advice to minimise TFAD to 4 hours (4 h) is only based on database studies. We prospectively studied the effect of minimising the TFAD on the early cl

  9. Early Bayesian modeling of a potassium lab-on-a-chip for monitoring of heart failure patients at increased risk of hyperkalaemia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetering, van de G.; Steuten, L.M.G.; Birgelen, von C.; Adang, E.M.; IJzerman, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: Innovative point-of-care (POC) diagnostics are likely to have a strong impact on 18 health care. The aim of this study is to conduct an early assessment of a point-of-care chip 19 for the detection of a pathological deviation of the potassium levels in patients at increased 20 risk, spec

  10. Protocol-based image-guided salvage brachytherapy. Early results in patients with local failure of prostate cancer after radiation therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lahmer, G.; Lotter, M.; Kreppner, S.; Fietkau, R.; Strnad, V. [University Hospital Erlangen (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology

    2013-08-15

    Purpose: To assess the overall clinical outcome of protocol-based image-guided salvage pulsed-dose-rate brachytherapy for locally recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy failure particularly regarding feasibility and side effects. Patients and methods: Eighteen consecutive patients with locally recurrent prostate cancer (median age, 69 years) were treated during 2005-2011 with interstitial PDR brachytherapy (PDR-BT) as salvage brachytherapy after radiotherapy failure. The treatment schedule was PDR-BT two times with 30 Gy (pulse dose 0.6 Gy/h, 24 h per day) corresponding to a total dose of 60 Gy. Dose volume adaptation was performed with the aim of optimal coverage of the whole prostate (V{sub 100} > 95 %) simultaneously respecting the protocol-based dose volume constraints for the urethra (D{sub 0.1} {sub cc} < 130 %) and the rectum (D{sub 2} {sub cc} < 50-60 %) taking into account the previous radiation therapy. Local relapse after radiotherapy (external beam irradiation, brachytherapy with J-125 seeds or combination) was confirmed mostly via choline-PET and increased PSA levels. The primary endpoint was treatment-related late toxicities - particularly proctitis, anal incontinence, cystitis, urinary incontinence, urinary frequency/urgency, and urinary retention according to the Common Toxicity Criteria. The secondary endpoint was PSA-recurrence-free survival. Results: We registered urinary toxicities only. Grade 2 and grade 3 toxicities were observed in up to 11.1 % (2/18) and 16.7 % (3/18) of patients, respectively. The most frequent late-event grade 3 toxicity was urinary retention in 17 % (3/18) of patients. No late gastrointestinal side effects occurred. The biochemical PSA-recurrence-free survival probability at 3 years was 57.1 %. The overall survival at 3 years was 88.9 %; 22 % (4/18) of patients developed metastases. The median follow-up time for all patients after salvage BT was 21 months (range, 8-77 months). Conclusion: Salvage PDR

  11. Earthquake and the Catastrophic End of the Late Bronze Age in the Eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nur, A.

    2009-04-01

    The reasons for the catastrophic and wide spread political as well as physical collapse in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean areas that define the end of the Bronze age ca. 1225 BC to 1175 BC remain a major enigma. It has been attributed by historian to attacks by outsiders with the most favored group being the (enigmatic) so-called sea people. Unfortunately there is no real evidence for this. However combined geological, geophysical and archaeological evidence suggests that earthquakes may have played a key role in this extraordinary collapse during the late 13th and early 12th centuries . Based on the instrumentally recorded earthquakes occurring in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean region during the 20th century, several events that have clear historical information, and the geography of seismically active faults it is obvious that numerous earthquakes of magnitude 6·5 or greater (enough to destroy modern buildings, let alone those of antiquity) occurred here frequently in the past. Furthermore major earthquakes often occur in this region in groups, known as ‘‘sequences'' or ‘‘storms'', in which one large quake is followed days, months, or a few years later by others elsewhere on the plate boundary fault lines. When a map of the areas in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean region shaken by 20th century  earthquakes of magnitude 6·5 and greater and with an intensity of VII or greater is overlaid on Robert Drews' map of sites destroyed in these same regions during the so-called ‘‘Catastrophe'' near the end of the Late Bronze Age, it is readily apparent that virtually all of these LBA sites lie within the affected (‘‘high-shaking'') areas. This would suggest that a major ‘‘earthquake storm'' may have occurred in the Late Bronze Age Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean during the years 1225-1175 . This ‘‘storm'' may have interacted with societal, political and economic forces at work in these areas c. 1200  and

  12. Depolymerizing kinesins Kip3 and MCAK shape cellular microtubule architecture by differential control of catastrophe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Melissa K; Zanic, Marija; Gell, Christopher; Bormuth, Volker; Howard, Jonathon

    2011-11-23

    Microtubules are dynamic filaments whose ends alternate between periods of slow growth and rapid shortening as they explore intracellular space and move organelles. A key question is how regulatory proteins modulate catastrophe, the conversion from growth to shortening. To study this process, we reconstituted microtubule dynamics in the absence and presence of the kinesin-8 Kip3 and the kinesin-13 MCAK. Surprisingly, we found that, even in the absence of the kinesins, the microtubule catastrophe frequency depends on the age of the microtubule, indicating that catastrophe is a multistep process. Kip3 slowed microtubule growth in a length-dependent manner and increased the rate of aging. In contrast, MCAK eliminated the aging process. Thus, both kinesins are catastrophe factors; Kip3 mediates fine control of microtubule length by narrowing the distribution of maximum lengths prior to catastrophe, whereas MCAK promotes rapid restructuring of the microtubule cytoskeleton by making catastrophe a first-order random process.

  13. Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

    2017-03-01

    The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

  14. Temporal and spatial distribution of dam failure events in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    X.Y.HE; Z.Y.WANG; J.C.HUANG

    2008-01-01

    Reservoirs play a vital role in economic development and flood control.Nevertheless,both human and natural factors may lead to dam failures with catastrophic consequences.Analyzing the data of dam failure events from 1954 to 2003 and using the method of energy spectrum analysis,this paper studies the periodicity of dam failures.The rate of failure of different dam ages is analyzed.The climate is the main factor affecting the rate of dam failure.Climate diagrams are used to analyze the spatial distribution of dam failure events in China.High rate of dam failure occurs with 25-year and 12.5-year periods.The distribution of the percentage of dam failure shows an L-shape as a function of service age.The first 5 years of operation is known as the "infant period",during which,the probability of dam failure is much higher than during any other periods.The failure rate in areas near or north to the 400 mm annual isopluvial line is notably higher than other areas.In areas with high temperature difference among seasons have a high annual average dam failure rate.

  15. A retrospective study of early dental implant failure caused by peri-implantitis%种植体周围炎导致牙种植早期失败的原因分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐鹏; 李晓东; 裴仲秋; 杨小竺; 黄元丁; 白石; 黄弘; 谭迎赟; 王黎

    2012-01-01

    Objective To analyze the causes associated with the early failure of dental implant to improve successful rate. Methods There were 57 patients with implant loosening or removed before repairing who received dental implant surgery from January 2006 to May 2011 in our department were reviewed and analyzed. Results Among these 57 patients, there were 63 failed implants. Most of the early failure occurred within the first month after implantation. Among all of them, 36 were caused by mucosa-derived peri-implanti-tis, 12 by teeth-derived peri-implantitis, 6 by simple infective peri-implantitis, 6 by aseptic peri-implantitis, and 3 by other factors. Conclusion Causes of early dental implant failure are complex. Postoperative wound infection is the most important one.%目的 分析口腔种植早期失败的原因,以提高种植早期成功率.方法 以种植体修复前松动脱落或被取出为种植失败的标准,收集并分析2006年1月至2011年5月在我科口腔医院种植科接受口腔种植的57例早期失败的病例资料,对导致失败的原因进行初步分析.结果 57例患者中,失败种植体共63枚.种植手术后第1个月是最危险时间段.失败原因分析:黏膜源性种植体周围炎所致36枚、牙源性种植体周围炎所致12枚、单纯感染性种植体周围炎所致6枚、无菌性种植体周围炎所致6枚、其他原因3枚.结论 致口腔种植早期失败的原因复杂,其中术后伤口黏膜感染为最主要因索.

  16. Do we need a communal coping model of pain catastrophizing? An alternative explanation

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    In this topical review, a case is made for placing pain catastrophizing within the transactional stress and coping model of Lazarus and Folkman (1984). It is argued that the CCM in its current formulation might actually contribute to the conceptual confusion around the construct of pain catastrophizing that was mentioned previously. This finally leads to the question of whether we actually need a CCM of catastrophizing.

  17. State Versus Trait: Validating State Assessment of Child and Parental Catastrophic Thinking About Children's Acute Pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durand, Hannah; Birnie, Kathryn A; Noel, Melanie; Vervoort, Tine; Goubert, Liesbet; Boerner, Katelynn E; Chambers, Christine T; Caes, Line

    2017-04-01

    Pain catastrophizing has emerged as one of the most robust predictors of child pain outcomes. Although assessments of state (ie, situation-specific) pain catastrophizing in children and parents are often used, their psychometric properties are unknown. This study aimed to assess factor structure, reliability, and predictive validity of state versions of Pain Catastrophizing Scales for children and parents relative to corresponding trait versions for child and parental pain-related outcomes. Data were pooled from 8 experimental pain studies in which child and/or parent state catastrophizing (measured immediately before application of a pain stimulus) and trait catastrophizing were assessed in community-based samples of children aged 8 to 18 years (N = 689) and their parents (N = 888) in Dutch or English. Exploratory factor analyses were conducted to examine the underlying factor structure of the state versions of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for parents/children, revealing a single factor solution that explained 55.53% of the variance for children and 49.72% for parents. Hierarchical linear regression analyses were used to examine relative influence of state versus trait catastrophizing on child and parent pain-related outcomes. Child and parent state catastrophizing were significantly associated with child pain intensity, child state anxiety and parental distress. State catastrophizing scores showed stronger associations than trait scores for most outcomes. This article presents the psychometric properties of state pain catastrophizing measures for children and parents. Findings underscore the importance of assessing state pain catastrophizing about acute pain experiences in parents and children, and provide a basis for robust and valid measurement of state pain catastrophizing about child pain. Copyright © 2016 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Quantification of tsunami-induced flows on a Mediterranean carbonate ramp reveals catastrophic evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slootman, Arnoud; Cartigny, Matthieu J. B.; Moscariello, Andrea; Chiaradia, Massimo; de Boer, Poppe L.

    2016-06-01

    Cool-water carbonates are the dominant limestones in the Mediterranean Basin since the Early Pliocene. Their deposition typically resulted in ramp morphologies due to high rates of resedimentation. Several such fossil carbonate ramps are characterised by a bimodal facies stacking pattern, where background deposition of subaqueous dune and/or tempestite deposits is repeatedly interrupted by anomalously thick sedimentary units, dominated by backset-stratification formed by supercritical flows. A multitude of exceptional triggers (e.g. storms, floods, tsunamis) have been invoked to explain the origin of these supercritical flows, which, in the absence of a quantitative analysis, remains speculative as yet. Here, for the first time, the catastrophic evolution of one such Mediterranean carbonate ramp, on Favignana Island (Italy), is quantified by combining 87Sr/86Sr dating, outcrop-based palaeoflow reconstructions and hydraulic calculations. We demonstrate that rare tsunami-induced flows, occurring on average once every 14 to 35 kyr, lasting a few hours only, deposited the anomalously thick backset-bedded units that form half of the sedimentary record. In between such events, cumulative two years of storm-induced flows deposited the remaining half of the succession by the stacking of subaqueous dunes. The two to four orders of magnitude difference in average recurrence period between the two flow types, and their associated sedimentation rates, emphasises the genetic differences between the two styles of deposition. In terms of sediment transport, the studied carbonate ramp was inactive for at least 99% of the time with gradual progradation during decennial to centennial storm activity. Carbonate ramp evolution attained a catastrophic signature by the contribution of rare tsunamis, producing short-lived, high-energy sediment gravity flows.

  19. Renal failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1993-01-01

    930150 Epidermal growth factor and its recep-tor in the renal tissue of patients with acute re-nal failure and normal persons.LIU Zhihong(刘志红),et al.Jinling Hosp,Nanjing,210002.Natl Med J China 1992;72(10):593-595.Epidermal growth factor(EGF)and its receptor(EGF-R)were identified by immunohis-tochemical method(4 layer PAP)in the renaltissue specimens obtained from 11 normal kid-neys and 17 cases of acute renal failure(ARF).The quantitative EGF and EGF-R in the tissuewere expressed as positive tubules per mm~2.The amount of EGF and EGF-R in renal tissue

  20. Bilateral Medial Medullary Stroke: A Challenge in Early Diagnosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir M. Torabi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Bilateral medial medullary stroke is a very rare type of stroke, with catastrophic consequences. Early diagnosis is crucial. Here, I present a young patient with acute vertigo, progressive generalized weakness, dysarthria, and respiratory failure, who initially was misdiagnosed with acute vestibular syndrome. Initial brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI that was done in the acute phase was read as normal. Other possibilities were excluded by lumbar puncture and MRI of cervical spine. MR of C-spine showed lesion at medial medulla; therefore a second MRI of brain was requested, showed characteristic “heart appearance” shape at diffusion weighted (DWI, and confirmed bilateral medial medullary stroke. Retrospectively, a vague-defined hyperintense linear DWI signal at midline was noted in the first brain MRI. Because of the symmetric and midline pattern of this abnormal signal and similarity to an artifact, some radiologists or neurologists may miss this type of stroke. Radiologists and neurologists must recognize clinical and MRI findings of this rare type of stroke, which early treatment could make a difference in patient outcome. The abnormal DWI signal in early stages of this type of stroke may not be a typical “heart appearance” shape, and other variants such as small dot or linear DWI signal at midline must be recognized as early signs of stroke. Also, MRI of cervical spine may be helpful if there is attention to brainstem as well.

  1. Heart failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1992-01-01

    920647 Comparative effects of commonvasodilators on experimental cardiac fai-lure. LI Zhijian (李志坚), et al. Dept Cardiol,2nd Hosp, Tianjin Med Coll. Tianjin Med J1992; 20(8): 456-458. A 9×9 latin square design was employed forcomparing the effects of (1) placebo, (2) nitr-oprusside, (3) phentolamine, (4) isosorbide dini-trate. (5) captopril, (6) captopril-isosorbide

  2. Heart failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    2005186 The diagnostic application of bedside measurement of plasma brain natriuretic in patients with heart failure. SHAO Le-wen (邵乐文) , Advanced Ward Dept, 1st Hosp, Med Sch, Zhejiang Univ, Hangzhou 310003. Chin J Intern Med, 2005;44(2): 99-101. Objective: To investigate differential diagnosis value of ultra-rapid bedside measurement of brain na-triuretic peptide (BNP) in patients with dyspnea.

  3. Heart failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    2010316 Tissue doppler imaging observation on effect of long-term use of gingko biloba tabtet on left ventricular function in patients with chronic heart failure. ZHANG Hui(张辉),et al. Dept Cardiovasc Med, 2nd Hosp, Hebei Med Univ,Shijiazhuang 050000. Chin J Integr Tradit & West Med 2010;30(5):478-481. Objective To quantitatively observe the effect of long-term

  4. Renal failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    2008463 Protective effect of recombination rat augmenter of liver regeneration on kidney in acute renal failure rats. TANG Xiaopeng(唐晓鹏), et al. Dept Nephrol, 2nd Affili Hosp Chongqing Med Univ, Chongqing 400010.Chin J Nephrol 2008;24(6):417-421. Objective To investigate the protective effects of recombination rat augmenter of liver regeneration (rrALR) on tubular cell injury and renal dysfunction

  5. The inherent catastrophic traps in retrograde CTO PCI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Eugene B; Tsuchikane, Etsuo

    2017-05-04

    When we learn to drive, our driving instructor tells us how to check the side mirror and turn your head to check the blind spot before changing lanes. He tells us how to stop at stop signs, how to drive in slippery conditions, the safe stopping distances, and these all make our driving safe. Similarly, when we learn PCI, our mentors teach us to seat the guiding catheter co-axially, to wire the vessel safely, to deliver balloon and stents over the wire, to watch the pressure of the guiding, in order that we perform PCI safely and evade complications. In retrograde CTO PCI, there is no such published teaching. Also many individual mentors have not had the wide experience to see all the possible complications of retrograde CTO PCI and, therefore, may not be able to warn their apprentice. As the number of retrograde procedures increase worldwide, there is a corresponding increase in catastrophic complications, many of which, we as experts, can see are easily avoidable. To breach this gap in knowledge, this article describes 12 commonly met inherent traps in retrograde CTO PCI. They are inherent because by arranging our equipment in the manner to perform retrograde CTO PCI, these complications are either induced directly or happen easily. We hope this work will enhance safety of retrograde CTO PCI and avoid many catastrophic complications for our readers and operators. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. Iodine and thyroid gland with or without nuclear catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovačev-Zavišić Branka

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Iodine, as a trace element, is a necessary and limiting substrate for thyroid gland hormone synthesis. It is an essential element that enables the thyroid gland to produce thyroid hormones thyroxine (T4 and triiodothyronine (T3. Synthesis of Thyroid Hormones and Iodine Metabolism. Three iodine molecules are added to make triiodothyronine, and four for thyroxine - the two key hormones produced by the thyroid gland. Iodine deficiency. The proper daily amount of iodine is required for optimal thyroid function. Iodine deficiency can cause hypothyroidism, developmental brain disorders and goiter. Iodine deficiency is the single most common cause of preventable mental retardation and brain damage in the world. It also decreases child survival, causes goiters, and impairs growth and development. Iodine deficiency disorders in pregnant women cause miscarriages, stillbirths, and other complications. Children with iodine deficiency disorders can grow up stunted, apathetic, mentally retarded, and incapable of normal movements, speech or hearing. Excessive Iodine Intake. Excessive iodine intake, which can trigger autoimmune thyroid disease and dysfunction, is on the other side. Iodine use in Case of Nuclear Catastrophe. In addition to other severe consequences of radioactivity, high amount of radioactive iodine causes significant increase in incidence of thyroid gland carcinoma after some of the nuclear catastrophes (Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Chernobyl, Fukushima. The incidence of thyroid carcinoma was increased mostly in children. This paper was aimed at clarifying some of the possibilities of prevention according to the recommendations given by the World Health Organization.

  7. Catastrophe model of the accident process, safety climate, and anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guastello, Stephen J; Lynn, Mark

    2014-04-01

    This study aimed (a) to address the evidence for situational specificity in the connection between safety climate to occupational accidents, (b) to resolve similar issues between anxiety and accidents, (c) to expand and develop the concept of safety climate to include a wider range of organizational constructs, (d) to assess a cusp catastrophe model for occupational accidents where safety climate and anxiety are treated as bifurcation variables, and environ-mental hazards are asymmetry variables. Bifurcation, or trigger variables can have a positive or negative effect on outcomes, depending on the levels of asymmetry, or background variables. The participants were 1262 production employees of two steel manufacturing facilities who completed a survey that measured safety management, anxiety, subjective danger, dysregulation, stressors and hazards. Nonlinear regression analyses showed, for this industry, that the accident process was explained by a cusp catastrophe model in which safety management and anxiety were bifurcation variables, and hazards, age and experience were asymmetry variables. The accuracy of the cusp model (R2 = .72) exceeded that of the next best log-linear model (R2 = .08) composed from the same survey variables. The results are thought to generalize to any industry where serious injuries could occur, although situationally specific effects should be anticipated as well.

  8. "Till destruction sicken": the catastrophe of mind in Macbeth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarantelli, Carole Beebe

    2010-12-01

    The author examines the tragedy of Macbeth from the vertex of its portrait of the effects of the hero's abandonment to the "blindest fury of destructiveness" (Freud, 1930, p. 121), using aspects of psychoanalytic thought to illuminate the theme. She affirms that Macbeth's immediate transformation in phantasy from loyal subject to future assassin threatens to flood his psyche with the uncontainable energy of destruction and thus to produce a psychic catastrophe. The remainder of the play is then examined as a representation of Macbeth's attempts to defend himself from that catastrophe: the only objects whose existence he can tolerate are those that cannot challenge his possession of the crown, which leads him to attempt to destroy all opposition. Since this is impossible, his alternative is to denude his mind of its perception of the reality in which the actions of others will inevitably produce future transformations which he is unable to control. The play's last soliloquy anticipates the final state, the repose of emptiness; it portrays a mind, emptied of emotion, looking at a world which it has denuded of meaning.

  9. Impact of a natural catastrophe on life events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janney, J G; Masuda, M; Holmes, T H

    1977-06-01

    A major earthquake struck Peru in May 1970. This post-quake study compares the impact of this natural catastrophe on the residents of two different cities; one was 90 percent levelled by the quake and one was untouched. A relatively homogeneous population of Peruvians obtained from the two cities completed two paper-and-pencil tests, the Social Readjustment Rating Questionnaire (SRRQ) and the Schedule of Recent Experience (SRE). Both questionnaires were adapted from the SRRQ which had been translated for studies in Spain and EL Salvador. The data from the SRRQ generated two Peruvian Social Readjustment Rating Scales (SRRS), one for each of the cities studied. The differences in the two scales were striking. The lowest intra-cultural correlation yet observed on four studies was obtained. Comparison with a United States population yielded no significant relationships (rs = 0.15), the first time this has occurred in nine intercultural studies. A comparison of the profile of items generated by their subjective magnitude estimations indicated striking qualitative and quantitative differences between the two populations. The SRE generated frequency of occurrence of items and life change magnitudes in five proscribed time intervals. Significant differences in these two quantitative indices (including the health change items) were observed in the two populations in some of the time intervals and not in others. The data formulated suggest that the occurrence of a natural catastrophe--an earthquake which devastated one city--accounted for much of the difference observed between the populations of the two cities.

  10. Current Methods of Natural Hazards Communication used within Catastrophe Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawber, C.; Latchman, S.

    2012-04-01

    In the field of catastrophe modelling, natural hazards need to be explained every day to (re)insurance professionals so that they may understand estimates of the loss potential of their portfolio. The effective communication of natural hazards to city professionals requires different strategies to be taken depending on the audience, their prior knowledge and respective backgrounds. It is best to have at least three sets of tools in your arsenal for a specific topic, 1) an illustration/animation, 2) a mathematical formula and 3) a real world case study example. This multi-faceted approach will be effective for those that learn best by pictorial means, mathematical means or anecdotal means. To show this we will use a set of real examples employed in the insurance industry of how different aspects of natural hazards and the uncertainty around them are explained to city professionals. For example, explaining the different modules within a catastrophe model such as the hazard, vulnerability and loss modules. We highlight how recent technology such as 3d plots, video recording and Google Earth maps, when used properly can help explain concepts quickly and easily. Finally we also examine the pitfalls of using overly-complicated visualisations and in general how counter-intuitive deductions may be made.

  11. Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Loganathan, Tharani; Lee, Way-Seah; Lee, Kok-Foo; Jit, Mark; Ng, Chiu-Wan

    2015-01-01

    While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses...

  12. Pain Catastrophizing and Its Relationship with Health Outcomes: Does Pain Intensity Matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Palacios, Azucena; Botella, Cristina; Ribera-Canudas, Maria Victoria

    2017-01-01

    Pain catastrophizing is known to contribute to physical and mental functioning, even when controlling for the effect of pain intensity. However, research has yet to explore whether the strength of the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes varies across pain intensity levels (i.e., moderation). If this was the case, it would have important implications for existing models of pain and current interventions. The present investigation explored whether pain intensity moderates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain-related outcomes. Participants were 254 patients (62% women) with heterogeneous chronic pain. Patients completed a measure of pain intensity, pain interference, pain catastrophizing, and physical and mental health. Pain intensity moderated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and pain interference and between pain catastrophizing and physical health status. Specifically, the strength of the correlation between pain catastrophizing and these outcomes decreased considerably as pain intensity increased. In contrast, pain intensity did not moderate the relationship between pain catastrophizing and mental health. Study findings provide a new insight into the role of pain intensity (i.e., moderator) in the relationship between pain catastrophizing and various pain-related outcomes, which might help develop existent models of pain. Clinical implications are discussed in the context of personalized therapy.

  13. Agricultural Mechanism of Spreading Catastrophe Risk in China and Legislation Conception

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces agricultural catastrophe and its characteristics,and conducts comparative analysis on existing mechanism of spreading agricultural catastrophe risk,indicating that the mechanism of administrative remedy has the greatest efficiency and highest cost;the mechanism of social assistance has the lowest cost,but its efficiency is lowest and there are unstable factors;market mechanism,namely the insurance of agricultural catastrophe,is the rational choice of agricultural department in mechanism of risk spreading.This paper analyzes the status quo of China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe,indicating that the main body of management in China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe is missing.In addition,the market demand is critically scanty,and insurance of agricultural catastrophe lacks external development environment.The gap of China’s insurance law of agricultural catastrophe has become the greatest obstacle to the development of insurance of agricultural catastrophe.From legislative purpose,basic principle,nature,main body of legal relations,management range,policy support,supervision and management and so on,the legislation conception of China’s insurance of agricultural catastrophe is put forward.

  14. Analysis of early dental implant failure and retreatment of 6 cases%6例种植体植入后早期失败原因分析及补种成功治疗体会

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    肖剑锐; 韩小宪; 陈宇轩; 陈书军; 孔亮; 屈红岩; 于新馨

    2014-01-01

    目的:回顾分析种植体植入后早期失败的原因、失败后再次种植的治疗措施。方法:对6例种植体植入后早期发生感染、松动等未实现骨结合的病例进行回顾,从临床表现、脱落原因、2次种植治疗等方面分析,并对失败原因进行探讨、对再种植疗效进行评估。结果:2例失败原因为邻牙牙髓、根尖周病和种植体周围感染拔除原种植体后行种植窝刮治、抗炎、邻牙根管治疗和再次种植术;4例为种植体无骨结合,原种植窝处理后6个月再次植入种植体;6例均重新实现种植体骨结合。结论:种植体失败的预防措施应包括控制邻牙和牙周感染因素以及适应证的选择;种植失败后对原种植窝有效处理后再种植仍能取得良好的种植疗效。%Objective:To analyse the causes of early implantation failure and the therapeutic measures with re-implantation after the failures.Methods:6 cases of implantation failure including early infections,loosening and non-osteointegration were reviewed and trea-ted by re-implantation therapy,and the causes of failure were discussed and the effects of re-treatment were evaluated.Results:2 cases were found to be with infection of adjacent teeth after implantation and were treated by removal of the implant,socket curettage,root ca-nal therapy(RCT)and antibiotics followed by reimplantation.Implant loosening and non-osteointegration were observed in 4 cases, which were treated by the similar methods for the implant socket.Reimplantation was successful in all 6 cases followed-up for 1 -3 years.Conclusion:Preventive measure for implantation failure should include indication selection,control of infections in adjacent teeth and periodontosis,use of GBR technic and so on.Re-implantation following proper treatment of adjacent teeth and the socket of implant is effective for the treatment of implantation failure.

  15. The Characteristics and triggering Factors of the October 2013 Obudu International Tourist Centre catastrophic Landslide South-East Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuoka, Hiroshi; Igwe, Ogbonnaya

    2015-04-01

    The October 2013 catastrophic landslides at the Obudu international tourist zone south-east Nigeria destroyed resources worth several millions of dollars and trapped international tourist who were later rescued by a helicopter. Intense rainfall caused several slope failures on the steep slopes of the hills. These landslides occurred after several days of heavy rain (> 600 mm) and were the first reported slope failures in this region. The failures were on a predominantly metamorphic terrain and only on slopes adjacent to the main road. They occurred as slides, not debris flow, but produced a wide range of casualties. The failures were of residual materials (about 1 m thick) obtained from weathering of schist. One of the landslides involved the movement of about 70,000 m3 debris for 8.6 m with depth of slip surface of 6 m. Another, which produced the most fatality initiated on a slope greater than 40o and displaced about 77, 000 m3. It had a runout length of 60 m, width of 98 m, depth to slip surface of 8 m and depositional area of about 2,500 m2. Had the opposite slope bounding the other side of the road not hindered the movement of debris, the runout distance could have been larger. The research found that all the landslides occurred on slope-portions composed of schist rather than gneiss or granite. Slip surfaces developed within the regolith and the shear zone was characterized by the presence of silty materials supported by clayey matrix. Field observations indicated that the failures generally developed as localized translational slides within the semi-consolidated, cohesive soil units (with high plasticity and low strength) within the upper to middle weathered zone of the schist. The increase in pore pressure arising from elevated water table during rainfall created instability by weakening the shear strength along the failure plane. However, differences in permeability favored the formation of perched water table which eventually triggered sliding.

  16. Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

    2011-02-01

    The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

  17. Exposure of Human Lung Cancer Cells to 8-Chloro-Adenosine Induces G2/M Arrest and Mitotic Catastrophe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Yu Zhang

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available 8-Chloro-adenosine (8-CI-Ado is a potent chemotherapeutic agent whose cytotoxicity in a variety of tumor cell lines has been widely investigated. However, the molecular mechanisms are uncertain. In this study, we found that exposure of human lung cancer cell lines A549 (p53-wt and H1299 (p53-depleted to 8-CI-Ado induced cell arrest in the G2/M phase, which was accompanied by accumulation of binucleated and polymorphonucleated cells resulting from aberrant mitosis and failed cytokinesis. Western blotting showed the loss of phosphorylated forms of Cdc2 and Cdc25C that allowed progression into mitosis. Furthermore, the increase in Ser10-phosphorylated histone H3-positive cells revealed by fluorescence-activated cell sorting suggested that the agent-targeted cells were able to exit the G2 phase and enter the M phase. Immunocytochemistry showed that microtubule and microfilament arrays were changed in exposed cells, indicating that the dynamic instability of microtubules and microfilaments was lost, which may correlate with mitotic dividing failure. Aberrant mitosis resulted in mitotic catastrophe followed by varying degrees of apoptosis, depending on the cell lines. Thus, 8-CI-Ado appears to exert its cytotoxicity toward cells in culture by inducing mitotic catastrophe.

  18. Maximal blood flow acceleration analysis in the early diastolic phase for aortocoronary artery bypass grafts: a new transit-time flow measurement predictor of graft failure following coronary artery bypass grafting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handa, Takemi; Orihashi, Kazumasa; Nishimori, Hideaki; Yamamoto, Masaki

    2016-11-01

    Maximal graft flow acceleration (max df/dt) determined using transit-time flowmetry (TTFM) in the diastolic phase was assessed as a potential predictor of graft failure for aortocoronary artery (AC) bypass grafts in coronary artery bypass patients. Max df/dt was retrospectively measured in 114 aortocoronary artery bypass grafts. TTFM data were fitted to a 9-polynomial curve, which was derived from the first-derivative curve, to measure max df/dt (9-polynomial max df/dt). Abnormal TTFM was defined as a mean flow of 5 or a diastolic filling ratio of polynomial max df/dt was significantly lower in abnormal TTFM/failing by the CAG group compared with abnormal TTFM/patent by the CAG group (1.08 ± 0.89 vs. 2.05 ± 1.51 ml/s(2), respectively; P polynomial max df/dt in the early diastolic phase may be a promising predictor of future graft failure for AC bypass grafts, particularly in abnormal TTFM grafts.

  19. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in pregnancy, a diagnosis that should not be missed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoayek, Jennifer G; Moussa, Hind N; Rehman, Hina A; Nasab, Susan Hosseini; Blackwell, Sean C; Sibai, Baha M

    2016-12-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is an accelerated form of the antiphospholipid antibody syndrome resulting in multi-organ ischemia and failure. It is a rare and life-threatening condition that can be easily mistaken with hemolysis elevated liver enzymes low platelets syndrome, thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura, and hemolytic uremic syndrome. In order to make a diagnosis, it is required to have multi-organ thrombosis over 1 week affecting at least three organs or systems, and to have positive antiphospholipid antibody on two occasions (6 weeks apart), and histopathologic confirmation of small vessel occlusion. However, due to similarities in clinical and laboratory findings between CAPS and some other obstetric complications, potential misdiagnosis or delay in diagnosis are common, increasing the risk of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. In this review we summarized information presented in previous studies, focusing on CAPS related to pregnancy. We reviewed diagnostic criteria, differential diagnosis, and common presentation ranging from malaise, abdominal pain, dyspnea, hypertension, to altered mental status and seizures. We also discussed management in pregnancy and included a detailed algorithm with steps to take. Of note, the most significant reduction in mortality was seen in patients receiving triple therapy which will be discussed in this review.

  20. The Flare Up of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome: a Report of an Immunosuppressive Withdrawal-Induced Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayyed Gholamreza Mortazavimoghaddam

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS is a systemic disease that causes venous and arterial thrombosis in virtually any organ. Sometimes it is complicated into pulmonary infarction and cavitation, pulmonary hypertension, and catastrophic course with high morbidity and mortality. The present case is a 35-year-old woman with one episode of postpartum deep veins thrombosis (DVT 12 years earlier and the second one after the second labor two years later. In spite of usual therapy for each episode of DVT, the condition had progressed into severe pulmonary hypertension. The diagnosis of primary APL syndrome was confirmed four years ago. She had been on warfarin, low dose of steroid, and azathioprine since the diagnosis of APL syndrome. After one year treatment with steroid and azathiprine the patient showed progressive well being; however, because of hyperglycemia the steroid tapered and discontinued. She had several attacks of paroxismal atrial tachycardia in the last year. On the last time, she presented with severe dyspnea, hemoptesis, and lower limbs edema. Chest radiography and Lung CT scan demonsterated the presence of lung cavitations. Because of high suspicious for fungal pulmonary infection, azathioprine was also discontinued. However, constellation renal failure, hemodynamic instability, and confusion caused the patient to succumb to death. The definite diagnosis of lung cavitations was not obtained

  1. A sustainable training strategy for improving health care following a catastrophic radiological or nuclear incident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumenthal, Daniel J; Bader, Judith L; Christensen, Doran; Koerner, John; Cuellar, John; Hinds, Sidney; Crapo, John; Glassman, Erik; Potter, A Bradley; Singletary, Lynda

    2014-02-01

    The detonation of a nuclear device in a US city would be catastrophic. Enormous loss of life and injuries would characterize an incident with profound human, political, social, and economic implications. Nevertheless, most responders have not received sufficient training about ionizing radiation, principles of radiation safety, or managing, diagnosing, and treating radiation-related injuries and illnesses. Members throughout the health care delivery system, including medical first responders, hospital first receivers, and health care institution support personnel such as janitors, hospital administrators, and security personnel, lack radiation-related training. This lack of knowledge can lead to failure of these groups to respond appropriately after a nuclear detonation or other major radiation incident and limit the effectiveness of the medical response and recovery effort. Efficacy of the response can be improved by getting each group the information it needs to do its job. This paper proposes a sustainable training strategy for spreading curricula throughout the necessary communities. It classifies the members of the health care delivery system into four tiers and identifies tasks for each tier and the radiation-relevant knowledge needed to perform these tasks. By providing education through additional modules to existing training structures, connecting radioactive contamination control to daily professional practices, and augmenting these systems with just-in-time training, the strategy creates a sustainable mechanism for giving members of the health care community improved ability to respond during a radiological or nuclear crisis, reducing fatalities, mitigating injuries, and improving the resiliency of the community.

  2. Structures, stresses, and fluctuations in the delayed failure of colloidal gel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lindstrom, S.B.; Kodger, T.E.; Sprakel, J.H.B.; Weitz, D.A.

    2012-01-01

    Sample-spanning networks of aggregated colloidal particles have a finite stiffness and deform elastically when subjected to a small shear stress. After some period of creep, these gels ultimately suffer catastrophic failure. This delayed yielding is governed by the association and dissociation dynam

  3. Cascading Edge Failures: A Dynamic Network Process

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, June

    2016-01-01

    This paper considers the dynamics of edges in a network. The Dynamic Bond Percolation (DBP) process models, through stochastic local rules, the dependence of an edge $(a,b)$ in a network on the states of its neighboring edges. Unlike previous models, DBP does not assume statistical independence between different edges. In applications, this means for example that failures of transmission lines in a power grid are not statistically independent, or alternatively, relationships between individuals (dyads) can lead to changes in other dyads in a social network. We consider the time evolution of the probability distribution of the network state, the collective states of all the edges (bonds), and show that it converges to a stationary distribution. We use this distribution to study the emergence of global behaviors like consensus (i.e., catastrophic failure or full recovery of the entire grid) or coexistence (i.e., some failed and some operating substructures in the grid). In particular, we show that, depending on...

  4. Heart failure - tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    CHF - tests; Congestive heart failure - tests; Cardiomyopathy - tests; HF - tests ... the best test to: Identify which type of heart failure (systolic versus diastolic, valvular) Monitor your heart failure ...

  5. Heart failure - home monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... failure - discharge Heart failure - fluids and diuretics Heart failure - what to ask ... Medical Center, University of Washington Medical School, Seattle, WA. Also reviewed by David Zieve, MD, ...

  6. Early heart failure in the SMNDelta7 model of spinal muscular atrophy and correction by postnatal scAAV9-SMN delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevan, Adam K; Hutchinson, Kirk R; Foust, Kevin D; Braun, Lyndsey; McGovern, Vicki L; Schmelzer, Leah; Ward, Jennifer G; Petruska, Jeffrey C; Lucchesi, Pamela A; Burghes, Arthur H M; Kaspar, Brian K

    2010-10-15

    Proximal spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a debilitating neurological disease marked by isolated lower motor neuron death and subsequent atrophy of skeletal muscle. Historically, SMA pathology was thought to be limited to lower motor neurons and the skeletal muscles they control, yet there are several reports describing the coincidence of cardiovascular abnormalities in SMA patients. As new therapies for SMA emerge, it is necessary to determine whether these non-neuromuscular systems need to be targeted. Therefore, we have characterized left ventricular (LV) function of SMA mice (SMN2+/+; SMNΔ7+/+; Smn-/-) and compared it with that of their unaffected littermates at 7 and 14 days of age. Anatomical and physiological measurements made by electrocardiogram and echocardiography show that affected mouse pups have a dramatic decrease in cardiac function. At 14 days of age, SMA mice have bradycardia and develop a marked dilated cardiomyopathy with a concomitant decrease in contractility. Signs of decreased cardiac function are also apparent as early as 7 days of age in SMA animals. Delivery of a survival motor neuron-1 transgene using a self-complementary adeno-associated virus serotype 9 abolished the symptom of bradycardia and significantly decreased the severity of the heart defect. We conclude that severe SMA animals have compromised cardiac function resulting at least partially from early bradycardia, which is likely attributable to aberrant autonomic signaling. Further cardiographic studies of human SMA patients are needed to clarify the clinical relevance of these findings from this SMA mouse.

  7. Health-related financial catastrophe, inequality and chronic illness in Bangladesh.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Mizanur Rahman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Bangladesh has a high proportion of households incurring catastrophic health expenditure, and very limited risk sharing mechanisms. Identifying determinants of out-of-pocket (OOP payments and catastrophic health expenditure may reveal opportunities to reduce costs and protect households from financial risk. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the determinants of high healthcare expenditure and healthcare- related financial catastrophe. METHODS: A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in Rajshahi city, Bangladesh, in 2011. Catastrophic health expenditure was estimated separately based on capacity to pay and proportion of non-food expenditure. Determinants of OOP payments and financial catastrophe were estimated using double hurdle and Poisson regression models respectively. RESULTS: On average households spent 11% of their total budgets on health, half the residents spent 7% of the monthly per capita consumption expenditure for one illness, and nearly 9% of households faced financial catastrophe. The poorest households spent less on health but had a four times higher risk of catastrophe than the richest households. The risk of financial catastrophe and the level of OOP payments were higher for users of inpatient, outpatient public and private facilities respectively compared to using self-medication or traditional healers. Other determinants of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses were economic status, presence of chronic illness in the household, and illness among children and adults. CONCLUSION: Households that received inpatient or outpatient private care experienced the highest burden of health expenditure. The poorest members of the community also face large, often catastrophic expenses. Chronic illness management is crucial to reducing the total burden of disease in a household and its associated increased risk of level of OOP payments and catastrophic expenses. Households can only be protected from these situations by

  8. A ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, X.; Li, D.; Li, G.

    2014-11-01

    In recent years, great disasters happen now and then. Disaster management test the emergency operation ability of the government and society all over the world. Immediately after the occurrence of a great disaster (e.g., earthquake), a massive nationwide rescue and relief operation need to be kicked off instantly. In order to improve the organizations efficiency of the emergency rescue, the organizers need to take charge of the information of the rescuer teams, including the real time location, the equipment with the team, the technical skills of the rescuers, and so on. One of the key factors for the success of emergency operations is the real time location of the rescuers dynamically. Real time tracking methods are used to track the professional rescuer teams now. But volunteers' participation play more and more important roles in great disasters. However, real time tracking of the volunteers will cause many problems, e.g., privacy leakage, expensive data consumption, etc. These problems may reduce the enthusiasm of volunteers' participation for catastrophe rescue. In fact, the great disaster is just small probability event, it is not necessary to track the volunteers (even rescuer teams) every time every day. In order to solve this problem, a ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue is presented in this paper. In this method, the handheld devices using GPS technology to provide the location of the users, e.g., smart phone, is used as the positioning equipment; an emergency tracking information database including the ID of the ground moving target (including the rescuer teams and volunteers), the communication number of the handheld devices with the moving target, and the usually living region, etc., is built in advance by registration; when catastrophe happens, the ground moving targets that living close to the disaster area will be filtered by the usually living region; then the activation short message will be sent to the selected

  9. Recurrent episodes of hemorrhagic alveolitis in relapsing catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: the same side of the dark moon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieralli, Filippo; Grazzini, Maddalena; Vannucchi, Vieri; Mancini, Antonio; Cammelli, Daniele; Nozzoli, Carlo

    2014-03-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare variant of antiphospholipid syndrome characterized by widespread thrombotic microangiopathy and multiorgan failure. Clinically, CAPS signs and symptoms can mimic vasculitis of systemic lupus erythematosus, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura. CAPS is burdened by high mortality, nearly 50% in most series. However, patients surviving the acute phase rarely suffer of CAPS relapses. Moreover, concomitant pulmonary hemorrhagic alveolitis is a very rare complication warranting an ominous prognosis. Only few reports of relapsing CAPS are described in literature, and pathogenetic mechanisms are poorly understood and the optimal treatment is yet unknown. We report a case of a young man suffering from multiple relapses of CAPS and recurrent hemorrhagic pulmonary alveolitis refractory to aggressive combination treatment.

  10. 酚妥拉明用于毛细支气管炎合并心衰的早期治疗%Phentolamine for early treatment of bronchiolitis complicated with heart failure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱克然; 王亚亭; 丁圣刚

    2016-01-01

    Objective:To evaluate the phentolamine in the early treatment of bronchiolitis complicated with heart failure should be value.Methods:December January 2013 to 2014,the Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University Department of pediatrics ward 2 hospital treated bronchiolitis complicated with heart failure in 120 cases,which did not give phentolamine were included in the control group (60 cases),treated with phentolamine in treating 60 cases into treatment group and comparison of relevant indicators.Results:in the treatment group,the symptoms remission time,wet rales disappearance time,length of hospital stay was lower than that of the control group,the difference has statistical significance (P0.05).Conclusion:phentolamine for early treatment of bronchiolitis can accelerate the rehabilitation of children with heart failure.%目的:评价酚妥拉明在毛细支气管炎合并心衰早期治疗中的应价值。方法:2013年1月~2014年12月,安医附院儿科2病区住院收治毛细支气管炎合并心衰120例,其中未给予酚妥拉明纳入对照组60例,给予酚妥拉明治疗60例纳入治疗组,对比相关指标。结果:治疗组症状缓解时间、湿罗音消失时间、住院天数低于对照组,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05);治疗组治愈率86.67%、好转率11.67%、无效率1.67%,对照组则为78.33%、30.00%、8.33%,两组临床疗效差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论:酚妥拉明用于毛细支气管炎合并心衰的早期治疗可加速患儿康复。

  11. On the governance of global and catastrophic risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faber, Michael Havbro

    2011-01-01

    of sustainable and global life safety and health improvements? Finally, new results and perspectives are presented on the issue of allocation of resources for the purpose of improving global public health and a discussion on global risk governance concludes the paper.......The focus of the present paper regards the identification and treatment of critical issues in the process of societal decision making concerning management of global and catastrophic risks. Taking basis in recent works by the author, the paper in particular addresses: 1) Which are the most relevant...... hazards in a holistic global perspective and how may these be categorised in view of strategies for their treatment?; 2) How might robust societal decisions on risk management subject to large uncertainties be formally supported?; 3) How may available economic resources be prioritised for the purpose...

  12. Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Wolski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

  13. Catastrophe characteristics of the condensation and pool boiling phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xuehu; Xu, Dunqi; Lin, Jifang

    1995-02-01

    Recently, Utaka proposed two types of the transition modes of dropwise condensation, i.e. the continuous and the jumping modes, and presented a criterion for determining the condensation transition mode. Stylianous and Rose proposed two hypotheses, the coalescence-limited transition and the nucleation site saturation transition. Neither Utaka's criterion nor Rose's hypotheses could clearly interpret the physical mechanisms of the transition both from filmwise to dropwise and from dropwise to pseudofilm condensation, and explicitly presented the main factors affecting the transitions. Kalinin hs given a general review of the transition boiling heat transfer. The catastrophe theory will be applied here to eluicidate the complex phenomena of the transitions of the condensation and boiling pattern states.

  14. From teosinte to maize: the catastrophic sexual transmutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iltis, H H

    1983-11-25

    An alternative to the theory that the ear of maize (Zea mays ssp. mays) evolved from a slender female ear of a Mexican annual teosinte holds that it was derived from the central spike of a male teosinte inflorescence (tassel) which terminates the primary lateral branches. This alternative hypothesis is more consistent with morphology and explains the anomalous lack of significant genetic and biochemical differences between these taxa. Maize, the only cereal with unisexual inflorescences, evolved through a sudden epigenetic sexual transmutation involving condensation of primary branches, which brought their tassels into the zone of female expression, leading to strong apical dominance and a catastrophic shift in nutrient allocation. Initially, this quantum change may have involved no new mutations, but rather genetic assimilation under human selection of an abnormality, perhaps environmentally triggered.

  15. Coupled catastrophes: sudden shifts cascade and hop among interdependent systems

    CERN Document Server

    Brummitt, Charles D; D'Souza, Raissa M

    2014-01-01

    A profoundly important challenge in several disciplines today is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a new technology platform, collapses in prices and in confidence in financial markets, and protests erupting in multiple countries. We characterize these phenomena using a simple model grounded in the theory of fast--slow ordinary differential equations and in catastrophe theory. In the model, a system consists of multiple subsystems (e.g., countries in the global economy or patches of an ecosystem), each described by a scalar quantity (such as economic output or population) that undergoes sudden changes via saddle-node bifurcations. The subsystems are coupled via their scalar quantities (e.g., trade couples economic output, diffusion couples populations); that coupling moves their bifurcations. The model elucidates two ways in which sudden changes can propaga...

  16. Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten Schmidt

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

  17. MECHANISM AND CATASTROPHE THEORY ANALYSIS OF CIRCULAR TUNNEL ROCKBURST

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    PAN Yue; ZHANG Yong; YU Guang-ming

    2006-01-01

    Mechanism of circular tunnel rockburst is that, when the carrying capacity of the centralized zone of plastic deformation in limiting state reduces, the comparatively intact part in rock mass unloads by way of elasticity; rockburst occurs immediately when the elastic energy released by the comparatively intact part exceeds the energy dissipated by plastic deformation. The equivalent strain was taken as a state variable to establish a catastrophe model of tunnel rockburst, and the computation expression of the earthquake energy released by tunnel rockburst was given. The analysis shows that, the conditions of rockburst occurrence are relative to rock's ratio of elastic modulus to descendent modulus and crack growth degree of rocks; to rock mass with specific rockburst tendency, there exists a corresponding critical depth of softened zone, and rockburst occurs when the depth of softened zone reaches.

  18. Catastrophe analysis on pillar instability considered mining effect

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jiang-teng; CAO Ping

    2005-01-01

    The instability of the pillar was discussed based on the potential energy principle and the cusp catastrophe theory, and a simplified mechanical model of the pillar was established considering the mining effect. The necessary-sufficient conditions, the jump value of displacement of pillar and the released energy expressions were deduced. The results show that the instability of the pillar is related to the properties of the rock, the external force and the relative stiffness of the elastic area to the plastic area. The instability of system is like to occur with the enlarging of the softening area or the decreasing of E/λ. The calculation done shows that the estimated results correspond to practical experience.

  19. Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I

    2007-01-01

    Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

  20. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    Catastrophic storms and storm surges induce rapid and substantial changes along sandy barrier coasts, potentially causing severe environmental and economic damage. Coastal impacts of modern storms are associated with washover deposition, dune erosion, barrier breaching, and coastline and shoreface...... erosion. Little is however known about the impact of major storms and their post-storm coastal recovery on geologic and historic evolution of barrier systems. We apply high-resolution optically stimulated luminescence dating on a barrier system in the Wadden Sea (Denmark) and show that 5 to 8 meters...... of marine sand accumulated in an aggrading-prograding shoal and on a prograding shoreface during and within 3 to 4 decades (“healing phase”) after the most destructive storm documented for the Wadden Sea. Furthermore, we show that the impact of this storm caused large-scale shoreline erosion and barrier...

  1. Chasma Australe Mars: Structural Framework for a Catastrophic Outflow Origin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anguita, F.; Babin, R.; Benito, G.; Collado, A.; Gomez, D.; Rice, J. W.

    1998-01-01

    Chasma Australe is the most remarkable of the martian south pole erosional reentrants carved in the polar layered deposits. Ms chasma originates near the south pole and runs across the polar troughs over a distance of about 500 km. Its width varies between 20 and 80 km and, with a depth up to 1000 m, it reaches the bedrock. Following an idea put forward originally for Chasma Boreale, we propose for the genesis of Chasma Australe a mechanism of catastrophic outflow preceded by a tectonically induced powerful sapping process. A detailed geomorphological analysis of Chasma Australe shows erosional and depositional features that can be interpreted as produced by the motion of a fluid. Like other polar reentrants, Chasma Australe is clearly assymetric, with a steep eastern margin where basal and lateral erosion prevailed, and a gentler western side, where the stepped topography and bedrock spurs favored deposition.

  2. Critical Amount of Resource in Containing Catastrophic Epidemics

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Xiaolong; Feng, Ling; Yang, Chun; Wang, Moming; Fan, Xiaoming; Hu, Yanqing

    2016-01-01

    During an epidemic control, the containment of the disease is usually achieved through increasing public health resource to quickly identify, quarantine and cure the infected population. However, the exact impact of this resource expenditure on the physical spreading dynamics remains unknown. In this work we find that the influence of resource expenditure exhibits extreme critical behaviour, which is the first order phase transition in nature. Specifically, if the amount of invested resource is below a critical value, a significant fraction of the total population will become infected; once it is more than that critical value, the disease outbreak can be effectively eradicated or contained. This finding implies that the government expenditure on infectious disease control needs to meet a certain critical threshold to be of any effectiveness. Otherwise, the outbreak could be catastrophic. We have validated our theoretical results on one real contact network and three typical social networks, with all of them e...

  3. Variable Structure Control of Catastrophic Course in Airdropping Heavy Cargo

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Huiyuan; Shi Zhongke

    2009-01-01

    The mathematical model of a transport aircraft would be subjected to a sudden change when heavy cargo is dropped off in airdropping, which exerts serious influences upon the safety of the aircraft. A variable structure controller is specially designed for handling the airdrop process. The nonlinear system is linearized by input-output feedback linearization using differential geometry theories. On this basis, an inner loop system for velocity and attitude tracking control is designed by using the exponentially approaching rule of the variable structure theory. The whole flight control system is integrated with the outer loop flight altitude control. Digital simulation evidences the applicability of the system to potentially catastrophic course in airdropping heavy cargo and provides robustness against system parameter perturbation.

  4. Eradicating Catastrophic Collapse in Interdependent Networks via Reinforced Nodes

    CERN Document Server

    Yuan, Xin; Stanley, H Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo

    2016-01-01

    In interdependent networks, it is usually assumed, based on percolation theory, that nodes become nonfunctional if they lose connection to the network giant component. However, in reality, some nodes, equipped with alternative resources, together with their connected neighbors can still be functioning once disconnected from the giant component. Here we propose and study a generalized percolation model that introduces a fraction of reinforced nodes in the interdependent networks that can function and support their neighborhood. We analyze, both analytically and via simulations, the order parameter$-$the functioning component$-$comprising both the giant component and smaller components that include at least one reinforced node. Remarkably, we find that for interdependent networks, we need to reinforce only a small fraction of nodes to prevent abrupt catastrophic collapses. Moreover, we find that the universal upper bound of this fraction is 0.1756 for two interdependent Erd\\H{o}s-R\\'{e}nyi (ER) networks, regula...

  5. Stability of theoretical model for catastrophic weather prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Wei-hui; WANG Yue-peng

    2007-01-01

    Stability related to theoretical model for catastrophic weather prediction,which includes non-hydrostatic perfect elastic model and anelastic model, is discussed and analyzed in detail. It is proved that non-hydrostatic perfect elastic equations set is stable in the class of infinitely differentiable function. However, for the anelastic equations set, its continuity equation is changed in form because of the particular hypothesis for fluid, so "the matching consisting of both viscosity coefficient and incompressible assumption" appears, thereby the most important equations set of this class in practical prediction shows the same instability in topological property as Navier-Stokes equation,which should be avoided first in practical numerical prediction. In light of this, the referenced suggestions to amend the applied model are finally presented.

  6. Can non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics solve the magnetic braking catastrophe?

    CERN Document Server

    Wurster, James; Bate, Matthew R

    2015-01-01

    We investigate whether or not the low ionisation fractions in molecular cloud cores can solve the `magnetic braking catastrophe', where magnetic fields prevent the formation of circumstellar discs around young stars. We perform three-dimensional smoothed particle non-ideal magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations of the gravitational collapse of one solar mass molecular cloud cores, incorporating the effects of ambipolar diffusion, Ohmic resistivity and the Hall effect alongside a self-consistent calculation of the ionisation chemistry assuming 0.1 micron grains. When including only ambipolar diffusion or Ohmic resistivity, discs do not form in the presence of strong magnetic fields, similar to the cases using ideal MHD. With the Hall effect included, disc formation depends on the direction of the magnetic field with respect to the rotation vector of the gas cloud. When the vectors are aligned, strong magnetic braking occurs and no disc is formed. When the vectors are anti-aligned, a disc with radius of 13AU ca...

  7. Rotation-Dependent Catastrophic Disruption of Gravitational Aggregates

    CERN Document Server

    Ballouz, Ronald-Louis; Michel, Patrick; Schwartz, Stephen R

    2014-01-01

    We carry out a systematic exploration of the effect of pre-impact rotation on the outcomes of low-speed collisions between planetesimals modeled as gravitational aggregates. We use pkdgrav, a cosmology code adapted to collisional problems and recently enhanced with a new soft-sphere collision algorithm that includes more realistic contact forces. A rotating body has lower effective surface gravity than a non-rotating one and therefore might suffer more mass loss as the result of a collision. What is less well understood, however, is whether rotation systematically increases mass loss on average regardless of the impact trajectory. This has important implications for the efficiency of planet formation via planetesimal growth, and also more generally for the determination of the impact energy threshold for catastrophic disruption (leading to the largest remnant retaining 50% of the original mass), as this has generally only been evaluated for non-spinning bodies. We find that for most collision scenarios, rotat...

  8. The role of infectious diseases in the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Carrasco, M; Mendoza-Pinto, C; Macias-Diaz, S; Vazquez de Lara, F; Etchegaray-Morales, I; Galvez-Romero, J L; Mendez-Martinez, S; Cervera, R

    2015-11-01

    Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS), also called "Asherson syndrome", is a variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) that occurs in less than 1% of APS cases. The etiology of CAPS is uncertain; however, several triggering factors have been recognized. The most common of these are infectious diseases, particularly those of the respiratory tract. CAPS pathogenesis is incompletely understood, but several theories have been proposed, such as the molecular mimicry theory, which describes the production of anti-β2-glycoprotein I (GP1) antibody in response to infection. The process is complex and involves the activation of Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR-4), which triggers a cytokine storm, followed by endothelial alterations that induce a procoagulant state.

  9. Improving Catastrophe Modeling for Business Interruption Insurance Needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Adam; Huyck, Charles K

    2016-10-01

    While catastrophe (CAT) modeling of property damage is well developed, modeling of business interruption (BI) lags far behind. One reason is the crude nature of functional relationships in CAT models that translate property damage into BI. Another is that estimating BI losses is more complicated because it depends greatly on public and private decisions during recovery with respect to resilience tactics that dampen losses by using remaining resources more efficiently to maintain business function and to recover more quickly. This article proposes a framework for improving hazard loss estimation for BI insurance needs. Improved data collection that allows for analysis at the level of individual facilities within a company can improve matching the facilities with the effectiveness of individual forms of resilience, such as accessing inventories, relocating operations, and accelerating repair, and can therefore improve estimation accuracy. We then illustrate the difference this can make in a case study example of losses from a hurricane.

  10. Industrial arsenic contamination causes catastrophic changes in freshwater ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Guangjie; Shi, Haibin; Tao, Jianshuang; Chen, Li; Liu, Yuanyuan; Lei, Guoliang; Liu, Xiaohai; Smol, John P

    2015-11-30

    Heavy metal pollution is now widely recognized to pose severe health and environmental threats, yet much of what is known concerning its adverse impacts on ecosystem health is derived from short-term ecotoxicological studies. Due to the frequent absence of long-term monitoring data, little is known of the long-tem ecological consequences of pollutants such as arsenic. Here, our dated sediment records from two contaminated lakes in China faithfully document a 13.9 and 21.4-fold increase of total arsenic relative to pre-1950 background levels. Concurrently, coherent responses in keystone biota signal pronounced ecosystem changes, with a >10-fold loss in crustacean zooplankton (important herbivores in the food webs of these lake systems) and a >5-fold increase in a highly metal-tolerant alga. Such fundamental ecological changes will cascade through the ecosystem, causing potentially catastrophic consequences for ecosystem services in contaminated regions.

  11. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Gruber

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

    From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

    In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

    This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  12. Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, M.

    2008-07-01

    The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

  13. Overcoming challenges of catastrophe modelling in data poor regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassby, L.; Millinship, I.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    There is an increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in expanding international insurance markets such as India, China and Thailand. This reflects the combination of an increase in exposures in these territories as industry intensifies and urban development expands, as well as several notable natural catastrophes affecting these areas over the past few years (e.g. extreme floods in Mumbai in 2006 and in Thailand in 2011). Large, global insurers and reinsurers are embracing the opportunity to underwrite these exposures but only where adequate tools are available to provide understanding of the hazards, exposures and potential losses. Unlike more developed countries, data availability in these regions is typically limited and of poor resolution, but model development is still required in order to analyse the risk. Some of the modelling challenges associated with data limitations include: (1) dealing with a lack of hydrological data which results in greater uncertainty of the flow rate and event frequency; (2) lower DTM resolution than that available across much of Europe, which underlies the hazard component of the catastrophe model; (3) limited accessibility to data that characterises the Built Environment including information on different building types and their susceptibility to damage; and (4) a lack of claims data from previous events or engineering research into the vulnerability of different building types. This is used to generate of country and structure specific vulnerability curves that explain the relationship between hazard intensity and damages. By presenting an industry specific flood model for data-poor India in collaboration with Allianz Re, we illustrate how we have overcome many of these challenges to allow loss accumulations to be made. The resulting model was successfully validated against the floods in Mumbai and Surat in 2006 and is being developed further with the availability of new data.

  14. Failure-Modes-And-Effects Analysis Of Software Logic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Danny; Hartline, Thomas; Minor, Terry; Statum, David; Vice, David

    1996-01-01

    Rigorous analysis applied early in design effort. Method of identifying potential inadequacies and modes and effects of failures caused by inadequacies (failure-modes-and-effects analysis or "FMEA" for short) devised for application to software logic.

  15. Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

  16. 12 CFR 741.214 - Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. 741.214 Section 741.214 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION... Unions § 741.214 Report of crime or catastrophic act and Bank Secrecy Act compliance. Any credit...

  17. Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

  18. Spatial structure induced by marine reserves shapes population responses to catastrophes in mathematical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGilliard, Carey R; Punt, André E; Hilborn, Ray

    2011-06-01

    Catastrophic events such as oil spills, hypoxia, disease, and major predation events occur in marine ecosystems and affect fish populations. Previous evaluations of the performance of spatial management alternatives have not considered catastrophic events. We investigate the effects of local and global catastrophic events on populations managed with and without no-take marine reserves and with fishing mortality rates that are optimized accounting for reserves. A spatial population dynamics model is used to explore effects of large, catastrophic natural mortality events. The effects of the spatial spread, magnitude, probability of catastrophe, and persistence of a catastrophic event through time are explored. Catastrophic events affecting large spatial areas and those that persist through time have the greatest effects on population dynamics because they affect natural mortality nonlinearly, whereas the probability and magnitude of catastrophic events result in only linear increases in natural mortality. The probability of falling below 10% or 20% of unfished abundance was greatest when a no-take marine reserve was implemented with no additional fishing regulations and least when a no-take marine reserve was implemented in addition to the maintenance of optimal fishing mortality in fished areas. In the absence of implementation error, maintaining abundance across space using restrictions on fishing mortality rates, regardless of the existence of a no-take marine reserve, decreased the probability of falling below 10% or 20% of unfished abundance.

  19. Research on traffic flow forecasting model based on cusp catastrophe theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张亚平; 裴玉龙

    2004-01-01

    This paper intends to describe the relationship between traffic parameters by using cusp catastrophe theory and to deduce highway capacity and corresponding speed forecasting value through suitable transformation of catastrophe model. The five properties of a catastrophe system are outlined briefly, and then the data collected on freeways of Zhujiang River Delta, Guangdong province, China are examined to ascertain whether they exhibit qualitative properties and attributes of the catastrophe model. The forecasting value of speed and capacity for freeway segments are given based on the catastrophe model. Furthermore, speed-flow curve on freeway is drawn by plotting out congested and uncongested traffic flow and the capacity value for the same freeway segment is also obtained from speed-flow curve to test the feasibility of the application of cusp catastrophe theory in traffic flow analysis. The calculating results of catastrophe model coincide with those of traditional traffic flow models regressed from field observed data, which indicates that the deficiency of traditional analysis of relationship between speed, flow and occupancy in two-dimension can be compensated by analysis of the relationship among speed, flow and occupancy based on catastrophe model in three-dimension. Finally, the prospects and problems of its application in traffic flow research in China are discussed.

  20. Analysis of Interlayer Connection Catastrophe Characteristics in Internet AS level Topology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Si-yuan Jia

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Based on CAIDA’s (cooperative association for Internet data analysis statistics at AS-level collected from April 2009 to April 2010, it is found that network size, degree correlations and clustering have changed significantly three times. According to the definition of k-core, the Internet topology is divided into different levels. In this paper, by analyzing the changing connection on each level at the three time spots, we found that the connection difference between the highest and the lowest level varies cyclically. Before Internet has significant change, the connection difference between the highest and the lowest shell changes acutely. At that time point it is the later stage of the fluctuation period which is the accumulation of small fluctuation. The concept of catastrophe coefficient is proposed for quantifying the probability of Internet catastrophe so that the catastrophe coefficient of Internet could be calculated on real time, and the catastrophe time spots could be predicted. Using real data for verification, it turns out that catastrophe coefficient can accurately predict the "giant fluctuations" occurrence in the macroscopic structure. With the proposal of the concept of catastrophe coefficient, the research can play an important guiding role in understanding the actual network internal development and changes, analyzing the cause of Internet catastrophe, preventing devastating catastrophe, planning and further re-designing Ipv6.