WorldWideScience

Sample records for e-zyme predicting potential

  1. Prediction of acid generation potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nalbandyan, V.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper discusses acid rock drainage (ARD), a term used to describe leachate, seepage, or drainage that has been affected by the natural oxidation of sulfide minerals contained in rock which is exposed to air and water. The principal ingredients for ARD formation are reactive sulfide minerals, oxygen, and water. The oxidation reactions responsible for the formation of ARD are often accelerated by biological activity. These reactions yield low pH (acidic) water that has the potential to mobilize heavy metals that may be contained in the geologic materials that are contacted. ARD can cause a detrimental impact on the quality of ground or surface water to which it discharges. ARD likely has been associated with mines since mining began. ARD is not necessarily confined to mining activities, but can occur naturally wherever sulfide-bearing rock is exposed to air and water. It is important to recognize that not all operations that expose sulfide-bearing rock will result in ARD

  2. Predicting the Potential Market for Electric Vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anders Fjendbo; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2017-01-01

    diffusion models in marketing research use fairly simple demand models. In this paper we discuss the problem of predicting market shares for new products and suggest a method that combines advanced choice models with a diffusion model to take into account that new products often need time to gain......Forecasting the potential demand for electric vehicles is a challenging task. Because most studies for new technologies rely on stated preference (SP) data, market share predictions will reflect shares in the SP data and not in the real market. Moreover, typical disaggregate demand models...... are suitable to forecast demand in relatively stable markets, but show limitations in the case of innovations. When predicting the market for new products it is crucial to account for the role played by innovation and how it penetrates the new market over time through a diffusion process. However, typical...

  3. Potential Predictability and Prediction Skill for Southern Peru Summertime Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    WU, S.; Notaro, M.; Vavrus, S. J.; Mortensen, E.; Block, P. J.; Montgomery, R. J.; De Pierola, J. N.; Sanchez, C.

    2016-12-01

    The central Andes receive over 50% of annual climatological rainfall during the short period of January-March. This summertime rainfall exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability, including severe drought events that incur devastating societal impacts and cause agricultural communities and mining facilities to compete for limited water resources. An improved seasonal prediction skill of summertime rainfall would aid in water resource planning and allocation across the water-limited southern Peru. While various underlying mechanisms have been proposed by past studies for the drivers of interannual variability in summertime rainfall across southern Peru, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), and extratropical forcings, operational forecasts continue to be largely based on rudimentary ENSO-based indices, such as NINO3.4, justifying further exploration of predictive skill. In order to bridge this gap between the understanding of driving mechanisms and the operational forecast, we performed systematic studies on the predictability and prediction skill of southern Peru summertime rainfall by constructing statistical forecast models using best available weather station and reanalysis datasets. At first, by assuming the first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of summertime rainfall are predictable, the potential predictability skill was evaluated for southern Peru. Then, we constructed a simple regression model, based on the time series of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and a more advanced Linear Inverse Model (LIM), based on the EOFs of tropical ocean SSTs and large-scale atmosphere variables from reanalysis. Our results show that the LIM model consistently outperforms the more rudimentary regression models on the forecast skill of domain averaged precipitation index and individual station indices. The improvement of forecast correlation skill ranges from 10% to over 200% for different

  4. Potential predictability of a Colombian river flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Quishpe-Vásquez, César; García-Valdecasas-Ojeda, Matilde; Raquel Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Jesús Esteban-Parra, María

    2017-04-01

    In this study the predictability of an important Colombian river (Cauca) has been analysed based on the use of climatic variables as potential predictors. Cauca River is considered one of the most important rivers of Colombia because its basin supports important productive activities related with the agriculture, such as the production of coffee or sugar. Potential relationships between the Cauca River seasonal streamflow anomalies and different climatic variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation (Pt), temperature over land (Tm) and soil water (Sw) have been analysed for the period 1949-2009. For this end, moving correlation analysis of 30 years have been carried out for lags from one to four seasons for the global SST, and from one to two seasons for South America Pt, Tm and Sw. Also, the stability of the significant correlations have been also studied, identifying the regions used as potential predictors of streamflow. Finally, in order to establish a prediction scheme based on the previous stable correlations, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied on the potential predictor regions has been carried out in order to obtain a representative time series for each predictor field. Significant and stable correlations between the seasonal streamflow and the tropical Pacific SST (El Niño region) are found for lags from one to four (one-year) season. Additionally, some regions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans also show significant and stable correlations at different lags, highlighting the importance that exerts the Atlantic SST on the hydrology of Colombia. Also significant and stable correlations are found with the Pt, Tm and Sw for some regions over South America, at lags of one and two seasons. The prediction of Cauca seasonal streamflow based on this scheme shows an acceptable skill and represents a relative improvement compared with the predictability obtained using the teleconnection indices associated with El Niño. Keywords

  5. Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapnick, Sarah B.; Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Gudgel, Rich; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.; Shevliakova, Elena; Underwood, Seth; Margulis, Steven A.

    2018-01-01

    Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

  6. Potential genetic polymorphisms predicting polycystic ovary syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Chen

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS is a heterogenous endocrine disorder with typical symptoms of oligomenorrhoea, hyperandrogenism, hirsutism, obesity, insulin resistance and increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Extensive evidence indicates that PCOS is a genetic disease and numerous biochemical pathways have been linked with its pathogenesis. A number of genes from these pathways have been investigated, which include those involved with steroid hormone biosynthesis and metabolism, action of gonadotropin and gonadal hormones, folliculogenesis, obesity and energy regulation, insulin secretion and action and many others. In this review, we summarize the historical and recent findings in genetic polymorphisms of PCOS from the relevant publications and outline some genetic polymorphisms that are potentially associated with the risk of PCOS. This information could uncover candidate genes associating with PCOS, which will be valuable for the development of novel diagnostic and treatment platforms for PCOS patients.

  7. Predicting local field potentials with recurrent neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Louis; Harer, Jacob; Rangamani, Akshay; Moran, James; Parks, Philip D; Widge, Alik; Eskandar, Emad; Dougherty, Darin; Chin, Sang Peter

    2016-08-01

    We present a Recurrent Neural Network using LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) that is capable of modeling and predicting Local Field Potentials. We train and test the network on real data recorded from epilepsy patients. We construct networks that predict multi-channel LFPs for 1, 10, and 100 milliseconds forward in time. Our results show that prediction using LSTM outperforms regression when predicting 10 and 100 millisecond forward in time.

  8. The potential role of biomarkers in predicting gestational diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huguette S Brink

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Gestational diabetes (GD is a frequent complication during pregnancy and is associated with maternal and neonatal complications. It is suggested that a disturbing environment for the foetus, such as impaired glucose metabolism during intrauterine life, may result in enduring epigenetic changes leading to increased disease risk in adult life. Hence, early prediction of GD is vital. Current risk prediction models are based on maternal and clinical parameters, lacking a strong predictive value. Adipokines are mainly produced by adipocytes and suggested to be a link between obesity and its cardiovascular complications. Various adipokines, including adiponectin, leptin and TNFα, have shown to be dysregulated in GD. This review aims to outline biomarkers potentially associated with the pathophysiology of GD and discuss the role of integrating predictive biomarkers in current clinical risk prediction models, in order to enhance the identification of those at risk.

  9. Plant water potential improves prediction of empirical stomatal models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William R L Anderegg

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to lead to increases in drought frequency and severity, with deleterious effects on many ecosystems. Stomatal responses to changing environmental conditions form the backbone of all ecosystem models, but are based on empirical relationships and are not well-tested during drought conditions. Here, we use a dataset of 34 woody plant species spanning global forest biomes to examine the effect of leaf water potential on stomatal conductance and test the predictive accuracy of three major stomatal models and a recently proposed model. We find that current leaf-level empirical models have consistent biases of over-prediction of stomatal conductance during dry conditions, particularly at low soil water potentials. Furthermore, the recently proposed stomatal conductance model yields increases in predictive capability compared to current models, and with particular improvement during drought conditions. Our results reveal that including stomatal sensitivity to declining water potential and consequent impairment of plant water transport will improve predictions during drought conditions and show that many biomes contain a diversity of plant stomatal strategies that range from risky to conservative stomatal regulation during water stress. Such improvements in stomatal simulation are greatly needed to help unravel and predict the response of ecosystems to future climate extremes.

  10. Experimental approaches to predict allergenic potential of novel food

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Kroghsbo, Stine; Bøgh, Katrine Lindholm

    2013-01-01

    ’t know under what circumstances oral tolerance develops. With all these unanswered questions, it is a big challenge to designan animal model that, with relatively few animals, is able to predict if a food protein is a potential allergen. An even larger challenge is to predict its potency, a prerequisite...... for risk evaluation.Attempts have been made to rank proteins according to their allergenic potency based on the magnitude of the IgE response in experimental animals. This ranking has not included abundance as a parameter. We may be able to predict potential allergenicity i.e. hazard but our lack......There are many unanswered questions relating to food allergy sensitization in humans. We don’t know under what circumstances sensitization takes place i.e. route (oral, dermal, respiratory), age, dose, frequencyof exposure, infection or by-stander effect of other allergens. In addition we don...

  11. Relativistic predictive quantum potential: the N-body case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garuccio, A.; Kyprianidis, A.; Vigier, J.P.

    1984-01-01

    It is generalized to a system of N scalar particles the casual description with action at a distance already given for two-particle systems in EPR type of experiments. The many body quantum potential is shown to satisfy the predictivity constraints established by Droz-Vincent for relativistic mechanics

  12. An algorithm to discover gene signatures with predictive potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hallett Robin M

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The advent of global gene expression profiling has generated unprecedented insight into our molecular understanding of cancer, including breast cancer. For example, human breast cancer patients display significant diversity in terms of their survival, recurrence, metastasis as well as response to treatment. These patient outcomes can be predicted by the transcriptional programs of their individual breast tumors. Predictive gene signatures allow us to correctly classify human breast tumors into various risk groups as well as to more accurately target therapy to ensure more durable cancer treatment. Results Here we present a novel algorithm to generate gene signatures with predictive potential. The method first classifies the expression intensity for each gene as determined by global gene expression profiling as low, average or high. The matrix containing the classified data for each gene is then used to score the expression of each gene based its individual ability to predict the patient characteristic of interest. Finally, all examined genes are ranked based on their predictive ability and the most highly ranked genes are included in the master gene signature, which is then ready for use as a predictor. This method was used to accurately predict the survival outcomes in a cohort of human breast cancer patients. Conclusions We confirmed the capacity of our algorithm to generate gene signatures with bona fide predictive ability. The simplicity of our algorithm will enable biological researchers to quickly generate valuable gene signatures without specialized software or extensive bioinformatics training.

  13. Prediction of potential drug targets based on simple sequence properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lai Luhua

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the past decades, research and development in drug discovery have attracted much attention and efforts. However, only 324 drug targets are known for clinical drugs up to now. Identifying potential drug targets is the first step in the process of modern drug discovery for developing novel therapeutic agents. Therefore, the identification and validation of new and effective drug targets are of great value for drug discovery in both academia and pharmaceutical industry. If a protein can be predicted in advance for its potential application as a drug target, the drug discovery process targeting this protein will be greatly speeded up. In the current study, based on the properties of known drug targets, we have developed a sequence-based drug target prediction method for fast identification of novel drug targets. Results Based on simple physicochemical properties extracted from protein sequences of known drug targets, several support vector machine models have been constructed in this study. The best model can distinguish currently known drug targets from non drug targets at an accuracy of 84%. Using this model, potential protein drug targets of human origin from Swiss-Prot were predicted, some of which have already attracted much attention as potential drug targets in pharmaceutical research. Conclusion We have developed a drug target prediction method based solely on protein sequence information without the knowledge of family/domain annotation, or the protein 3D structure. This method can be applied in novel drug target identification and validation, as well as genome scale drug target predictions.

  14. Maxent modelling for predicting the potential distribution of Thai Palms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tovaranonte, Jantrararuk; Barfod, Anders S.; Overgaard, Anne Blach

    2011-01-01

    on presence data. The aim was to identify potential hot spot areas, assess the determinants of palm distribution ranges, and provide a firmer knowledge base for future conservation actions. We focused on a relatively small number of climatic, environmental and spatial variables in order to avoid...... overprediction of species distribution ranges. The models with the best predictive power were found by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Here, we provide examples of contrasting predicted species distribution ranges as well as a map of modeled palm diversity...

  15. Predicting the potential of energy from agricultural wastes in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arifah Bahar; Ahmad Mahir Razali; Kamaruzzaman Sopian

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents the prediction of the potential of energy supply from agricultural wastes in Malaysia until the year 2005. The exponential smoothing method is used to predict the supply of energy from these resources. The prediction is based on four scenarios namely (a) business as usual, (b) increase in the plantation area by 1 % (c) increase in productivity by 1 % with no increase in plantation area and (d) decrease in plantation area of 1%. The agricultural wastes considered are from rubber, oil palm ,cocoa, paddy, coconut and pineapple resources. In Peninsular Malaysia, these resources include groundnut, sugar cane, and tapioca. Assuming an energy conversion of 30%, only three agricultural wastes can contribute as an energy supply i.e. oil palm, paddy and sugar cane wastes. The contribution of these resources to the demand of energy for Malaysia is 21% in the year 2000 and 17% in the year 2005. (Author)

  16. Predictive mapping of the acidifying potential for acid sulfate soils

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boman, A; Beucher, Amélie; Mattbäck, S

    Developing methods for the predictive mapping of the potential environmental impact from acid sulfate soils is important because recent studies (e.g. Mattbäck et al., under revision) have shown that the environmental hazards (e.g. leaching of acidity) related to acid sulfate soils vary depending...... on their texture (clay, silt, sand etc.). Moreover, acidity correlates, not only with the sulfur content, but also with the electrical conductivity (EC) measured after incubation. Electromagnetic induction (EMI) data collected from an EM38 proximal sensor also enabled the detailed mapping of acid sulfate soils...... over a field (Huang et al., 2014).This study aims at assessing the use of EMI data for the predictive mapping of the acidifying potential in an acid sulfate soil area in western Finland. Different supervised classification modelling techniques, such as Artificial Neural Networks (Beucher et al., 2015...

  17. Scoring radiologic characteristics to predict proliferative potential in meningiomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashiba, Tetsuo; Hashimoto, Naoya; Maruno, Motohiko; Izumoto, Shuichi; Suzuki, Tsuyoshi; Kagawa, Naoki; Yoshimine, Toshiki

    2006-01-01

    We investigated the feasibility of using radiologic characteristics to predict the proliferative potential in meningiomas. Our statistical analysis revealed that the presence of peritumoral edema, an ambiguous brain-tumor border, and irregular tumor shape were significantly correlated with a higher MIB-1 staining index (SI) value. We developed the following scoring system for specific features in each tumor: peritumoral edema (tumor with edema=1, tumor without edema=0); brain-tumor border (tumor with any ambiguous border=1, tumor circumscribed by a distinct rim=0); and tumor shape (tumor with irregular shape=1, tumor with smooth shape=0). Using Spearman's correlation coefficient analysis, we found a significant correlation (P<0.005) between total score calculated for each patient and SI value. Our findings suggest that the proliferative potential of meningiomas can be predicted using a less invasive preoperative examination focusing on the presence of peritumoral edema, ambiguous brain-tumor border, and irregular tumor shape. (author)

  18. Radiotracer technique to predict irritation potential of soap

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castaneda, S.S.; Garcia, T.Y.; Santos, F.L.

    1990-01-01

    The application of a radiotracer technique using tritiated water to predict the irritation potentials of some soap products is demonstrated. Collagen films are treated with 0.5% and 1.0% soap solutions and tritiated water then incubated at 50 degrees centigrade for 24 hours. After incubation, the uptake of tritiated water by the collagen films was measured by liquid scintillation counting. (Auth.). 6 refs., 2 tabs

  19. PREDICTIVE POTENTIAL FIELD-BASED COLLISION AVOIDANCE FOR MULTICOPTERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Nieuwenhuisen

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Reliable obstacle avoidance is a key to navigating with UAVs in the close vicinity of static and dynamic obstacles. Wheel-based mobile robots are often equipped with 2D or 3D laser range finders that cover the 2D workspace sufficiently accurate and at a high rate. Micro UAV platforms operate in a 3D environment, but the restricted payload prohibits the use of fast state-of-the-art 3D sensors. Thus, perception of small obstacles is often only possible in the vicinity of the UAV and a fast collision avoidance system is necessary. We propose a reactive collision avoidance system based on artificial potential fields, that takes the special dynamics of UAVs into account by predicting the influence of obstacles on the estimated trajectory in the near future using a learned motion model. Experimental evaluation shows that the prediction leads to smoother trajectories and allows to navigate collision-free through passageways.

  20. EEG potentials predict upcoming emergency brakings during simulated driving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haufe, Stefan; Treder, Matthias S.; Gugler, Manfred F.; Sagebaum, Max; Curio, Gabriel; Blankertz, Benjamin

    2011-10-01

    Emergency braking assistance has the potential to prevent a large number of car crashes. State-of-the-art systems operate in two stages. Basic safety measures are adopted once external sensors indicate a potential upcoming crash. If further activity at the brake pedal is detected, the system automatically performs emergency braking. Here, we present the results of a driving simulator study indicating that the driver's intention to perform emergency braking can be detected based on muscle activation and cerebral activity prior to the behavioural response. Identical levels of predictive accuracy were attained using electroencephalography (EEG), which worked more quickly than electromyography (EMG), and using EMG, which worked more quickly than pedal dynamics. A simulated assistance system using EEG and EMG was found to detect emergency brakings 130 ms earlier than a system relying only on pedal responses. At 100 km h-1 driving speed, this amounts to reducing the braking distance by 3.66 m. This result motivates a neuroergonomic approach to driving assistance. Our EEG analysis yielded a characteristic event-related potential signature that comprised components related to the sensory registration of a critical traffic situation, mental evaluation of the sensory percept and motor preparation. While all these components should occur often during normal driving, we conjecture that it is their characteristic spatio-temporal superposition in emergency braking situations that leads to the considerable prediction performance we observed.

  1. Potential Predictability of ZPD of Children’s Cognitive Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parviz Birjandi

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Obtaining information on whether the child has the potential for growth is not an easy task. Research shows that using different matrix like Raven or different batteries in a static way cannot
    be indicative of children further development. This study attempts to probe the potential predictability of children’s performance during Dynamic Assessment of their Future development.
    41 children between ages 3 to 6 years old participated in this study. The data in pretest, ZPD, and posttest were converted into Rasch Measure. The results of different analysis indicate that relying on children’s actual performance cannot be an indicative factor of their development in the future.

  2. Predicting Energy Consumption for Potential Effective Use in Hybrid Vehicle Powertrain Management Using Driver Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnuson, Brian

    A proof-of-concept software-in-the-loop study is performed to assess the accuracy of predicted net and charge-gaining energy consumption for potential effective use in optimizing powertrain management of hybrid vehicles. With promising results of improving fuel efficiency of a thermostatic control strategy for a series, plug-ing, hybrid-electric vehicle by 8.24%, the route and speed prediction machine learning algorithms are redesigned and implemented for real- world testing in a stand-alone C++ code-base to ingest map data, learn and predict driver habits, and store driver data for fast startup and shutdown of the controller or computer used to execute the compiled algorithm. Speed prediction is performed using a multi-layer, multi-input, multi- output neural network using feed-forward prediction and gradient descent through back- propagation training. Route prediction utilizes a Hidden Markov Model with a recurrent forward algorithm for prediction and multi-dimensional hash maps to store state and state distribution constraining associations between atomic road segments and end destinations. Predicted energy is calculated using the predicted time-series speed and elevation profile over the predicted route and the road-load equation. Testing of the code-base is performed over a known road network spanning 24x35 blocks on the south hill of Spokane, Washington. A large set of training routes are traversed once to add randomness to the route prediction algorithm, and a subset of the training routes, testing routes, are traversed to assess the accuracy of the net and charge-gaining predicted energy consumption. Each test route is traveled a random number of times with varying speed conditions from traffic and pedestrians to add randomness to speed prediction. Prediction data is stored and analyzed in a post process Matlab script. The aggregated results and analysis of all traversals of all test routes reflect the performance of the Driver Prediction algorithm. The

  3. Probabilistic empirical prediction of seasonal climate: evaluation and potential applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieppois, B.; Eden, J.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.

    2017-12-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a new evaluation of an established empirical system used to predict seasonal climate across the globe. Forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are produced by the KNMI Probabilistic Empirical Prediction (K-PREP) system every month and disseminated via the KNMI Climate Explorer (climexp.knmi.nl). K-PREP is based on multiple linear regression and built on physical principles to the fullest extent with predictive information taken from the global CO2-equivalent concentration, large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and regional-scale information. K-PREP seasonal forecasts for the period 1981-2016 will be compared with corresponding dynamically generated forecasts produced by operational forecast systems. While there are many regions of the world where empirical forecast skill is extremely limited, several areas are identified where K-PREP offers comparable skill to dynamical systems. We discuss two key points in the future development and application of the K-PREP system: (a) the potential for K-PREP to provide a more useful basis for reference forecasts than those based on persistence or climatology, and (b) the added value of including K-PREP forecast information in multi-model forecast products, at least for known regions of good skill. We also discuss the potential development of

  4. Predicting hydrocarbon potential of an earth formation underlying water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damaison, G.J.; Kaplan, I.R.

    1981-01-01

    A method for the on-site collection and examination of small concentrations of a carbonaceous gas, e.g. methane, dissolved in a body of water overlying an earth formation to predict hydrocarbon potential of the earth formation under the body of water, the formation being a source of carbonaceous gas, comprises at a known geographic location sampling the water at a selected flow rate and at a selected depth; continuously vacuum separating the water into liquid and gas phases; separating a selected carbonaceous gas from interfering gas species in the presence of an air carrier vented to atmosphere at a known flow rate; and quantitatively oxidizing the selected gas and then cryogenically trapping an oxidant thereof in the presence of said air carrier to provide for an accurate isotopic examination. (author)

  5. The potential predictability of fire danger provided by ECMWF forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Giuseppe, Francesca

    2017-04-01

    The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), is currently being developed in the framework of the Copernicus Emergency Management Services to monitor and forecast fire danger in Europe. The system provides timely information to civil protection authorities in 38 nations across Europe and mostly concentrates on flagging regions which might be at high danger of spontaneous ignition due to persistent drought. The daily predictions of fire danger conditions are based on the US Forest Service National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), the Canadian forest service Fire Weather Index Rating System (FWI) and the Australian McArthur (MARK-5) rating systems. Weather forcings are provided in real time by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecasting system. The global system's potential predictability is assessed using re-analysis fields as weather forcings. The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED4) provides 11 years of observed burned areas from satellite measurements and is used as a validation dataset. The fire indices implemented are good predictors to highlight dangerous conditions. High values are correlated with observed fire and low values correspond to non observed events. A more quantitative skill evaluation was performed using the Extremal Dependency Index which is a skill score specifically designed for rare events. It revealed that the three indices were more skilful on a global scale than the random forecast to detect large fires. The performance peaks in the boreal forests, in the Mediterranean, the Amazon rain-forests and southeast Asia. The skill-scores were then aggregated at country level to reveal which nations could potentiallty benefit from the system information in aid of decision making and fire control support. Overall we found that fire danger modelling based on weather forecasts, can provide reasonable predictability over large parts of the global landmass.

  6. Do resting brain dynamics predict oddball evoked-potential?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Tien-Wen

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The oddball paradigm is widely applied to the investigation of cognitive function in neuroscience and in neuropsychiatry. Whether cortical oscillation in the resting state can predict the elicited oddball event-related potential (ERP is still not clear. This study explored the relationship between resting electroencephalography (EEG and oddball ERPs. The regional powers of 18 electrodes across delta, theta, alpha and beta frequencies were correlated with the amplitude and latency of N1, P2, N2 and P3 components of oddball ERPs. A multivariate analysis based on partial least squares (PLS was applied to further examine the spatial pattern revealed by multiple correlations. Results Higher synchronization in the resting state, especially at the alpha spectrum, is associated with higher neural responsiveness and faster neural propagation, as indicated by the higher amplitude change of N1/N2 and shorter latency of P2. None of the resting quantitative EEG indices predict P3 latency and amplitude. The PLS analysis confirms that the resting cortical dynamics which explains N1/N2 amplitude and P2 latency does not show regional specificity, indicating a global property of the brain. Conclusions This study differs from previous approaches by relating dynamics in the resting state to neural responsiveness in the activation state. Our analyses suggest that the neural characteristics carried by resting brain dynamics modulate the earlier/automatic stage of target detection.

  7. The Potential of Tropospheric Gradients for Regional Precipitation Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisits, Janina; Möller, Gregor; Wittmann, Christoph; Weber, Robert

    2017-04-01

    Changes of temperature and humidity in the neutral atmosphere cause variations in tropospheric path delays and tropospheric gradients. By estimating zenith wet delays (ZWD) and gradients using a GNSS reference station network the obtained time series provide information about spatial and temporal variations of water vapour in the atmosphere. Thus, GNSS-based tropospheric parameters can contribute to the forecast of regional precipitation events. In a recently finalized master thesis at TU Wien the potential of tropospheric gradients for weather prediction was investigated. Therefore, ZWD and gradient time series at selected GNSS reference stations were compared to precipitation data over a period of six months (April to September 2014). The selected GNSS stations form two test areas within Austria. All required meteorological data was provided by the Central Institution for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG). Two characteristics in ZWD and gradient time series can be anticipated in case of an approaching weather front. First, an induced asymmetry in tropospheric delays results in both, an increased magnitude of the gradient and in gradients pointing towards the weather front. Second, an increase in ZWD reflects the increased water vapour concentration right before a precipitation event. To investigate these characteristics exemplary test events were processed. On the one hand, the sequence of the anticipated increase in ZWD at each GNSS station obtained by cross correlation of the time series indicates the direction of the approaching weather front. On the other hand, the corresponding peak in gradient time series allows the deduction of the direction of movement as well. To verify the results precipitation data from ZAMG was used. It can be deduced, that tropospheric gradients show high potential for predicting precipitation events. While ZWD time series rather indicate the orientation of the air mass boundary, gradients rather indicate the direction of movement

  8. Prediction of the acid generating potential of coal mining spoils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monterroso, C.; Macias, F.

    1998-01-01

    The sulfide oxidation impact on mined land reclamation makes it necessary for mine spoils to be classified according to their acidifying potential. In this paper predictions were made of the acid generating potential of sulfide-containing spoils from the Puentes lignite mine (Galicia, NW Spain), and the limits of sulfur contents allowable for their storage in aerobic conditions, were established. Using samples of fresh spoils, analyses were made of the content and speciation of sulfur, pH was measured after oxidation of the sample with H 2 O 2 (pH of oxidation = pH OX ), and titration of the oxidation extract with 0.1N NaOH to pH = 7 was carried out (Net Acid Production = NAP). The total sulfur content (S T ) varied between 3%, with pyritic-S being the most common form (> 80%). pH OX varied between 1.6 and 6.4 and NAP between 1.2 and 85.0 Kg-CaCO 3 t -1 . A high correlation was found between the NAP and the S T (r-0.98, p T > 0.15% cause high risks of mine-soil acidification, and create the need for large doses of CaCO 3 to be used on final surface of the mine dump. Use of fly ash, produced from the combustion of lignite, as an alternative to commercial lime is more effective in the control of acidity generated by spoils with high S T . 20 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  9. Predictive tests to evaluate oxidative potential of engineered nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghiazza, Mara; Carella, Emanuele; Oliaro-Bosso, Simonetta; Corazzari, Ingrid; Viola, Franca; Fenoglio, Ivana

    2013-04-01

    Oxidative stress constitutes one of the principal injury mechanisms through which particulate toxicants (asbestos, crystalline silica, hard metals) and engineered nanomaterials can induce adverse health effects. ROS may be generated indirectly by activated cells and/or directly at the surface of the material. The occurrence of these processes depends upon the type of material. Many authors have recently demonstrated that metal oxides and carbon-based nanoparticles may influence (increasing or decreasing) the generation of oxygen radicals in a cell environment. Metal oxide, such as iron oxides, crystalline silica, and titanium dioxide are able to generate free radicals via different mechanisms causing an imbalance within oxidant species. The increase of ROS species may lead to inflammatory responses and in some cases to the development of cancer. On the other hand carbon-based nanomaterials, such as fullerene, carbon nanotubes, carbon black as well as cerium dioxide are able to scavenge the free radicals generated acting as antioxidant. The high numbers of new-engineered nanomaterials, which are introduced in the market, are exponentially increasing. Therefore the definition of toxicological strategies is urgently needed. The development of acellular screening tests will make possible the reduction of the number of in vitro and in vivo tests to be performed. An integrated protocol that may be used to predict the oxidant/antioxidant potential of engineered nanoparticles will be here presented.

  10. Predictive tests to evaluate oxidative potential of engineered nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghiazza, Mara; Carella, Emanuele; Corazzari, Ingrid; Fenoglio, Ivana; Oliaro-Bosso, Simonetta; Viola, Franca

    2013-01-01

    Oxidative stress constitutes one of the principal injury mechanisms through which particulate toxicants (asbestos, crystalline silica, hard metals) and engineered nanomaterials can induce adverse health effects. ROS may be generated indirectly by activated cells and/or directly at the surface of the material. The occurrence of these processes depends upon the type of material. Many authors have recently demonstrated that metal oxides and carbon-based nanoparticles may influence (increasing or decreasing) the generation of oxygen radicals in a cell environment. Metal oxide, such as iron oxides, crystalline silica, and titanium dioxide are able to generate free radicals via different mechanisms causing an imbalance within oxidant species. The increase of ROS species may lead to inflammatory responses and in some cases to the development of cancer. On the other hand carbon-based nanomaterials, such as fullerene, carbon nanotubes, carbon black as well as cerium dioxide are able to scavenge the free radicals generated acting as antioxidant. The high numbers of new-engineered nanomaterials, which are introduced in the market, are exponentially increasing. Therefore the definition of toxicological strategies is urgently needed. The development of acellular screening tests will make possible the reduction of the number of in vitro and in vivo tests to be performed. An integrated protocol that may be used to predict the oxidant/antioxidant potential of engineered nanoparticles will be here presented.

  11. Predicting Customer Potential Value: an application in the insurance industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Verhoef (Peter); A.C.D. Donkers (Bas)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractFor effective Customer Relationship Management (CRM), it is essential to have information on the potential value of customers. Based on the interplay between potential value and realized value, managers can devise customer specific strategies. In this article we introduce a model for

  12. Potential predictive factors of positive prostate biopsy in the Chinese ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Yomi

    2012-01-16

    Jan 16, 2012 ... Therefore, it might be inappropriate that we apply these western models to the. Chinese population that has a lower incidence of PCa. Therefore, this retrospective study aimed to determine predictive factors for a positive prostate biopsy in Chinese men. Our ultimate goal is to develop a simple model for ...

  13. Integrated Computational Solution for Predicting Skin Sensitization Potential of Molecules.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konda Leela Sarath Kumar

    Full Text Available Skin sensitization forms a major toxicological endpoint for dermatology and cosmetic products. Recent ban on animal testing for cosmetics demands for alternative methods. We developed an integrated computational solution (SkinSense that offers a robust solution and addresses the limitations of existing computational tools i.e. high false positive rate and/or limited coverage.The key components of our solution include: QSAR models selected from a combinatorial set, similarity information and literature-derived sub-structure patterns of known skin protein reactive groups. Its prediction performance on a challenge set of molecules showed accuracy = 75.32%, CCR = 74.36%, sensitivity = 70.00% and specificity = 78.72%, which is better than several existing tools including VEGA (accuracy = 45.00% and CCR = 54.17% with 'High' reliability scoring, DEREK (accuracy = 72.73% and CCR = 71.44% and TOPKAT (accuracy = 60.00% and CCR = 61.67%. Although, TIMES-SS showed higher predictive power (accuracy = 90.00% and CCR = 92.86%, the coverage was very low (only 10 out of 77 molecules were predicted reliably.Owing to improved prediction performance and coverage, our solution can serve as a useful expert system towards Integrated Approaches to Testing and Assessment for skin sensitization. It would be invaluable to cosmetic/ dermatology industry for pre-screening their molecules, and reducing time, cost and animal testing.

  14. Predicting Potential C Mineralization of Tundra Soils Using Spectroscopy Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    The large amounts of organic matter stored in permafrost-region soils are preserved in a relatively undecomposed state by the cold and wet environmental conditions limiting decomposer activity. With pending climate changes and the potential for warming of Arctic soils, there is a need to better unde...

  15. Predicting the potential distribution of invasive silver carp ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The potential range of silver carp in South Africa was identified based on ecological niche modelling (ENM) using the maximum entropy method. Models were constructed using occurrence records and a defined background, and calibrated using a k-fold method. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve ...

  16. Prediction of scale potential in ethylene glycol containing solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandengen, Kristian; Oestvold, Terje

    2006-03-15

    This work presents a method for scale prediction in MEG (Mono Ethylene Glycol / 1,2-ethane-diol) containing solutions. It is based on an existing PVT scale model using a Pitzer ion interaction model for the aqueous phase. The model is well suited for scale prediction in saline solutions, where the PVT part is necessary for calculating CO{sub 2} phase equilibria being critical for carbonate scale. MEG influences the equilibria contained in the model, and its effect has been added empirically. Thus the accuracy of the model is limited by the amount of available experimental data. The model is applicable in the range 0-99wt% MEG and includes a wide variety of salts. In addition to the aspects of scale modelling in MEG+water solutions, this work presents new experimental data on CaSO4 solubility (0-95wt% MEG and 22-80 deg.C). CaSO4 solubility is greatly reduced by MEG to an extent that ''Salting-out'' is possible. (author) (tk)

  17. Predicting Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy According to the Powell/Reinhold Scale

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A method of predicting the destructive capacity of a tropical cyclone based on a new Wind Destructive Potential (WDP) and Storm Surge Destructive Potential (SDP)...

  18. Accuracy of professional sports drafts in predicting career potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koz, D; Fraser-Thomas, J; Baker, J

    2012-08-01

    The forecasting of talented players is a crucial aspect of building a successful sports franchise and professional sports invest significant resources in making player choices in sport drafts. The current study examined the relationship between career performance (i.e. games played) and draft round for the National Football League, National Hockey League, National Basketball League, and Major League Baseball for players drafted from 1980 to 1989 (n = 4874) against the assumption of a linear relationship between performance and draft round (i.e. that players with the most potential will be selected before players of lower potential). A two-step analysis revealed significant differences in games played across draft rounds (step 1) and a significant negative relationship between draft round and games played (step 2); however, the amount of variance accounted for was relatively low (less than 17%). Results highlight the challenges of accurately evaluating amateur talent. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  19. Prediction of potential failures in hydraulic gear pumps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Lisowski

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Hydraulic gear pumps are used in many machines and devices. In hydraulic systems of machines gear pumps are main component ofsupply unit or perform auxiliary function. Gear pumps opposite to vane pumps are less complicated. They consists of such components as:housing, gear wheels, bearings, shaft, seal for rotation motion which are not very sensitive for damage and that is why they are using veryoften. However, gear pumps are break down from time to time. Usually damage of pump cause shutting down of machines and devices.One of the way for identifying potential failures and foreseeing their effects is a quality method. On the basis of these methods apreventing action might be undertaken before failure appear. In this paper potential failures and damages of a gear pump were presented bythe usage of matrix FMEA analysis.

  20. Prediction of Addiction Potential in Youth According to Attachment Styles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdieh Adroom

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The present study aim is to predict the psychological inclination to drug use in youths by studying their attachment styles. Materials and Methods: The research sample includes male and female students of Zahedan Medical Science University with the average age of 19-24. The proportional cluster random sampling was used for selection of participant. The hypotheses were analyzed, using Pearson correlation method, regression analysis, one way variance analysis and t-test for two independent groups4T. Results: The results indicated positive relationships among addiction aptitude and insecure-avoidant attachment style and negative relationship between addiction aptitude and secure attachment style4T. Conclusion: It is necessary to focus training intervention and prevention on all students4T.

  1. Potential ecological risk assessment and predicting zinc accumulation in soils

    OpenAIRE

    Baran, Agnieszka; Wieczorek, Jerzy; Mazurek, Ryszard; Urbański, Krzysztof; Klimkowicz-Pawlas, Agnieszka

    2017-01-01

    The aims of this study were to investigate zinc content in the studied soils; evaluate the efficiency of geostatistics in presenting spatial variability of zinc in the soils; assess bioavailable forms of zinc in the soils and to assess soil–zinc binding ability; and to estimate the potential ecological risk of zinc in soils. The study was conducted in southern Poland, in the Malopolska Province. This area is characterized by a great diversity of geological structures and types of land use and...

  2. Prediction of potential compressive strength of Portland clinker from its mineralogy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svinning, K.; Høskuldsson, Agnar; Justnes, H.

    2010-01-01

    Based on a statistical model first applied for prediction of compressive strength up to 28 d from the microstructure of Portland cement, potential compressive strength of clinker has been predicted from its mineralogy. The prediction model was evaluated by partial least squares regression...

  3. Grouping nanomaterials to predict their potential to induce pulmonary inflammation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braakhuis, Hedwig M., E-mail: hedwig.braakhuis@rivm.nl [National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven (Netherlands); Department of Toxicogenomics, Maastricht University, PO Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht (Netherlands); Oomen, Agnes G. [National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven (Netherlands); Cassee, Flemming R. [National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven (Netherlands); Institute of Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80.163, 3508 TD Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2016-05-15

    The rapidly expanding manufacturing, production and use of nanomaterials have raised concerns for both worker and consumer safety. Various studies have been published in which induction of pulmonary inflammation after inhalation exposure to nanomaterials has been described. Nanomaterials can vary in aspects such as size, shape, charge, crystallinity, chemical composition, and dissolution rate. Currently, efforts are made to increase the knowledge on the characteristics of nanomaterials that can be used to categorise them into hazard groups according to these characteristics. Grouping helps to gather information on nanomaterials in an efficient way with the aim to aid risk assessment. Here, we discuss different ways of grouping nanomaterials for their risk assessment after inhalation. Since the relation between single intrinsic particle characteristics and the severity of pulmonary inflammation is unknown, grouping of nanomaterials by their intrinsic characteristics alone is not sufficient to predict their risk after inhalation. The biokinetics of nanomaterials should be taken into account as that affects the dose present at a target site over time. The parameters determining the kinetic behaviour are not the same as the hazard-determining parameters. Furthermore, characteristics of nanomaterials change in the life-cycle, resulting in human exposure to different forms and doses of these nanomaterials. As information on the biokinetics and in situ characteristics of nanomaterials is essential but often lacking, efforts should be made to include these in testing strategies. Grouping nanomaterials will probably be of the most value to risk assessors when information on intrinsic characteristics, life-cycle, biokinetics and effects are all combined. - Highlights: • Grouping of nanomaterials helps to gather information in an efficient way with the aim to aid risk assessment. • Different ways of grouping nanomaterials for their risk assessment after inhalation are

  4. Grouping nanomaterials to predict their potential to induce pulmonary inflammation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braakhuis, Hedwig M.; Oomen, Agnes G.; Cassee, Flemming R.

    2016-01-01

    The rapidly expanding manufacturing, production and use of nanomaterials have raised concerns for both worker and consumer safety. Various studies have been published in which induction of pulmonary inflammation after inhalation exposure to nanomaterials has been described. Nanomaterials can vary in aspects such as size, shape, charge, crystallinity, chemical composition, and dissolution rate. Currently, efforts are made to increase the knowledge on the characteristics of nanomaterials that can be used to categorise them into hazard groups according to these characteristics. Grouping helps to gather information on nanomaterials in an efficient way with the aim to aid risk assessment. Here, we discuss different ways of grouping nanomaterials for their risk assessment after inhalation. Since the relation between single intrinsic particle characteristics and the severity of pulmonary inflammation is unknown, grouping of nanomaterials by their intrinsic characteristics alone is not sufficient to predict their risk after inhalation. The biokinetics of nanomaterials should be taken into account as that affects the dose present at a target site over time. The parameters determining the kinetic behaviour are not the same as the hazard-determining parameters. Furthermore, characteristics of nanomaterials change in the life-cycle, resulting in human exposure to different forms and doses of these nanomaterials. As information on the biokinetics and in situ characteristics of nanomaterials is essential but often lacking, efforts should be made to include these in testing strategies. Grouping nanomaterials will probably be of the most value to risk assessors when information on intrinsic characteristics, life-cycle, biokinetics and effects are all combined. - Highlights: • Grouping of nanomaterials helps to gather information in an efficient way with the aim to aid risk assessment. • Different ways of grouping nanomaterials for their risk assessment after inhalation are

  5. Potential ecological risk assessment and predicting zinc accumulation in soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Agnieszka; Wieczorek, Jerzy; Mazurek, Ryszard; Urbański, Krzysztof; Klimkowicz-Pawlas, Agnieszka

    2018-02-01

    The aims of this study were to investigate zinc content in the studied soils; evaluate the efficiency of geostatistics in presenting spatial variability of zinc in the soils; assess bioavailable forms of zinc in the soils and to assess soil-zinc binding ability; and to estimate the potential ecological risk of zinc in soils. The study was conducted in southern Poland, in the Malopolska Province. This area is characterized by a great diversity of geological structures and types of land use and intensity of industrial development. The zinc content was affected by soil factors, and the type of land use (arable lands, grasslands, forests, wastelands). A total of 320 soil samples were characterized in terms of physicochemical properties (texture, pH, organic C content, total and available Zn content). Based on the obtained data, assessment of the ecological risk of zinc was conducted using two methods: potential ecological risk index and hazard quotient. Total Zn content in the soils ranged from 8.27 to 7221 mg kg -1 d.m. Based on the surface semivariograms, the highest variability of zinc in the soils was observed from northwest to southeast. The point sources of Zn contamination were located in the northwestern part of the area, near the mining-metallurgical activity involving processing of zinc and lead ores. These findings were confirmed by the arrangement of semivariogram surfaces and bivariate Moran's correlation coefficients. The content of bioavailable forms of zinc was between 0.05 and 46.19 mg kg -1 d.m. (0.01 mol dm -3 CaCl 2 ), and between 0.03 and 71.54 mg kg -1 d.m. (1 mol dm -3 NH 4 NO 3 ). Forest soils had the highest zinc solubility, followed by arable land, grassland and wasteland. PCA showed that organic C was the key factor to control bioavailability of zinc in the soils. The extreme, very high and medium zinc accumulation was found in 69% of studied soils. There is no ecological risk of zinc to living organisms in the study area, and in 90

  6. Prognostic and predictive potential molecular biomarkers in colon cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nastase, A; Pâslaru, L; Niculescu, A M; Ionescu, M; Dumitraşcu, T; Herlea, V; Dima, S; Gheorghe, C; Lazar, V; Popescu, I

    2011-01-01

    An important objective in nowadays research is the discovery of new biomarkers that can detect colon tumours in early stages and indicate with accuracy the status of the disease. The aim of our study was to identify potential biomarkers for colon cancer onset and progression. We assessed gene expression profiles of a list of 10 candidate genes (MMP-1, MMP-3, MMP-7, DEFA 1, DEFA-5, DEFA-6, IL-8, CXCL-1, SPP-1, CTHRC-1) by quantitative real time PCR in triplets of colonic mucosa (normal, adenoma, tumoral tissue) collected from the same patient during surgery for a group of 20 patients. Additionally we performed immunohistochemistry for DEFA1-3 and SPP1. We remarked that DEFA5 and DEFA6 are key factors in adenoma formation (p<0.05). MMP7 is important in the transition from a benign to a malignant status (p <0.01) and further in metastasis being a prognostic indicator for tumor transformation and for the metastatic potential of cancer cells. IL8, irrespective of tumor stage, has a high mRNA level in adenocarcinoma (p< 0.05). The level of expression for SPP1 is correlated with tumor level. We suggest that high levels of DEFAS, DEFA6 (key elements in adenoma formation), MMP7 (marker of colon cancer onset and progression to metastasis), SPP1 (marker of progression) and IL8 could be used to diagnose an early stage colon cancer and to evaluate the prognostic of progression for colon tumors. Further, if DEFA5 and DEFA6 level of expression are low but MMP7, SPP1 and IL8 level are high we could point out that the transition from adenoma to adenocarcinoma had already occurred. Thus, DEFA5, DEFA6, MMP7, IL8 and SPP1 consist in a valuable panel of biomarkers, whose detection can be used in early detection and progressive disease and also in prognostic of colon cancer.

  7. Grouping nanomaterials to predict their potential to induce pulmonary inflammation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braakhuis, Hedwig M; Oomen, Agnes G; Cassee, Flemming R

    2016-05-15

    The rapidly expanding manufacturing, production and use of nanomaterials have raised concerns for both worker and consumer safety. Various studies have been published in which induction of pulmonary inflammation after inhalation exposure to nanomaterials has been described. Nanomaterials can vary in aspects such as size, shape, charge, crystallinity, chemical composition, and dissolution rate. Currently, efforts are made to increase the knowledge on the characteristics of nanomaterials that can be used to categorise them into hazard groups according to these characteristics. Grouping helps to gather information on nanomaterials in an efficient way with the aim to aid risk assessment. Here, we discuss different ways of grouping nanomaterials for their risk assessment after inhalation. Since the relation between single intrinsic particle characteristics and the severity of pulmonary inflammation is unknown, grouping of nanomaterials by their intrinsic characteristics alone is not sufficient to predict their risk after inhalation. The biokinetics of nanomaterials should be taken into account as that affects the dose present at a target site over time. The parameters determining the kinetic behaviour are not the same as the hazard-determining parameters. Furthermore, characteristics of nanomaterials change in the life-cycle, resulting in human exposure to different forms and doses of these nanomaterials. As information on the biokinetics and in situ characteristics of nanomaterials is essential but often lacking, efforts should be made to include these in testing strategies. Grouping nanomaterials will probably be of the most value to risk assessors when information on intrinsic characteristics, life-cycle, biokinetics and effects are all combined. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Potentiality Prediction of Electric Power Replacement Based on Power Market Development Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Bo; Yang, Shuo; Liu, Qiang; Lin, Jingyi; Zhao, Le; Liu, Chang; Li, Bin

    2017-05-01

    The application of electric power replacement plays an important role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in our country. To exploit the potentiality of regional electric power replacement, the regional GDP (gross domestic product) and energy consumption are taken as potentiality evaluation indicators. The principal component factors are extracted with PCA (principal component analysis), and the integral potentiality analysis is made to the potentiality of electric power replacement in the national various regions; a region is taken as a research object, and the potentiality of electric power replacement is defined and quantified. The analytical model for the potentiality of multi-scenario electric power replacement is developed, and prediction is made to the energy consumption with the grey prediction model. The relevant theoretical research is utilized to realize prediction analysis on the potentiality amount of multi-scenario electric power replacement.

  9. Potential decadal predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koenigk, Torben; Caian, Mihaela; Doescher, Ralf; Wyser, Klaus [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Koenig Beatty, Christof [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2012-06-15

    Decadal prediction is one focus of the upcoming 5th IPCC Assessment report. To be able to interpret the results and to further improve the decadal predictions it is important to investigate the potential predictability in the participating climate models. This study analyzes the upper limit of climate predictability on decadal time scales and its dependency on sea ice albedo parameterization by performing two perfect ensemble experiments with the global coupled climate model EC-Earth. In the first experiment, the standard albedo formulation of EC-Earth is used, in the second experiment sea ice albedo is reduced. The potential prognostic predictability is analyzed for a set of oceanic and atmospheric parameters. The decadal predictability of the atmospheric circulation is small. The highest potential predictability was found in air temperature at 2 m height over the northern North Atlantic and the southern South Atlantic. Over land, only a few areas are significantly predictable. The predictability for continental size averages of air temperature is relatively good in all northern hemisphere regions. Sea ice thickness is highly predictable along the ice edges in the North Atlantic Arctic Sector. The meridional overturning circulation is highly predictable in both experiments and governs most of the decadal climate predictability in the northern hemisphere. The experiments using reduced sea ice albedo show some important differences like a generally higher predictability of atmospheric variables in the Arctic or higher predictability of air temperature in Europe. Furthermore, decadal variations are substantially smaller in the simulations with reduced ice albedo, which can be explained by reduced sea ice thickness in these simulations. (orig.)

  10. Nucleon-nucleon interaction with quark exchanges and prediction to colour van der Waals potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osman, A.

    1985-11-01

    The nucleon-nucleon interaction is considered by including the colour nucleon clusters. The nucleon-nucleon system is treated as a six-quark system. The obtained local potentials reduce the short-range repulsion. The resulted nucleon-nucleon potential by using a quark-quark potential well agrees with the central-force potentials. The phase shifts calculated by using these local potentials are in good agreement with those obtained from other methods. Introducing the quark-quark potential in the nucleon-nucleon interaction, leads to a colour van der Waals potential very strong compared with that predicted by experiments. (author)

  11. Nurses' Assessment of Rehabilitation Potential and Prediction of Functional Status at Discharge from Inpatient Rehabilitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Jamie S.; Grigsby, Jim; Teel, Cynthia S.; Kramer, Andrew M.

    2009-01-01

    The goals of this study were to evaluate the accuracy of nurses' predictions of rehabilitation potential in older adults admitted to inpatient rehabilitation facilities and to ascertain whether the addition of a measure of executive cognitive function would enhance predictive accuracy. Secondary analysis was performed on prospective data collected…

  12. Inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiao; Ding, Ruiqiang; Wu, Zhiwei; Zhong, Quanjia; Li, Baosheng; Li, Jianping

    2018-05-01

    The significant inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has been investigated using the signal-to-noise ratio method. The relatively low potential predictability appears from the early 1950s through the late 1970s and during the early 2000s, whereas the potential predictability is relatively high from the early 1980s through the late 1990s. The inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM can be attributed mainly to variations in the external signal of the EASM. The latter is mostly caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) inter-decadal variability. As a major external signal of the EASM, the ENSO inter-decadal variability experiences phase transitions from negative to positive phases in the late 1970s, and to negative phases in the late 1990s. Additionally, ENSO is generally strong (weak) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. The strong ENSO is expected to have a greater influence on the EASM, and vice versa. As a result, the potential predictability of the EASM tends to be high (low) during a positive (negative) phase of the ENSO inter-decadal variability. Furthermore, a suite of Pacific Pacemaker experiments suggests that the ENSO inter-decadal variability may be a key pacemaker of the inter-decadal change in potential predictability of the EASM.

  13. Prediction of rodent carcinogenic potential of naturally occurring chemicals in the human diet using high-throughput QSAR predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valerio, Luis G.; Arvidson, Kirk B.; Chanderbhan, Ronald F.; Contrera, Joseph F.

    2007-01-01

    Consistent with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Critical Path Initiative, predictive toxicology software programs employing quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models are currently under evaluation for regulatory risk assessment and scientific decision support for highly sensitive endpoints such as carcinogenicity, mutagenicity and reproductive toxicity. At the FDA's Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition's Office of Food Additive Safety and the Center for Drug Evaluation and Research's Informatics and Computational Safety Analysis Staff (ICSAS), the use of computational SAR tools for both qualitative and quantitative risk assessment applications are being developed and evaluated. One tool of current interest is MDL-QSAR predictive discriminant analysis modeling of rodent carcinogenicity, which has been previously evaluated for pharmaceutical applications by the FDA ICSAS. The study described in this paper aims to evaluate the utility of this software to estimate the carcinogenic potential of small, organic, naturally occurring chemicals found in the human diet. In addition, a group of 19 known synthetic dietary constituents that were positive in rodent carcinogenicity studies served as a control group. In the test group of naturally occurring chemicals, 101 were found to be suitable for predictive modeling using this software's discriminant analysis modeling approach. Predictions performed on these compounds were compared to published experimental evidence of each compound's carcinogenic potential. Experimental evidence included relevant toxicological studies such as rodent cancer bioassays, rodent anti-carcinogenicity studies, genotoxic studies, and the presence of chemical structural alerts. Statistical indices of predictive performance were calculated to assess the utility of the predictive modeling method. Results revealed good predictive performance using this software's rodent carcinogenicity module of over 1200 chemicals

  14. Prediction of Addiction Potential on the Basis of Aggression and Assertiveness in University Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Hajihasani

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The aim of present research was the prediction of addiction potential on the basis of aggression and assertiveness in Allameh Tabbatabaei girl students. Method: The research method was correlational design and population of research was girl students of Allameh Tabatabaei university. By available sampling 150 girls were selected and Ahvaz Aggression Questionnaire, Gambril & Rigy Assertiveness questionnaire and Zargari Addiction Potential Questionnaire administered among selected sample. Findings: the results of the Pearson correlation showed that the relationship between aggression, assertiveness, and addiction potential was significant. Also, the results of multivariate regression analysis showed that aggression, assertiveness and depression can predict the Addiction Potential. Conclusion: Addiction potential can be predicted by aggression and assertiveness.

  15. Morphology-based prediction of osteogenic differentiation potential of human mesenchymal stem cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fumiko Matsuoka

    Full Text Available Human bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (hBMSCs are widely used cell source for clinical bone regeneration. Achieving the greatest therapeutic effect is dependent on the osteogenic differentiation potential of the stem cells to be implanted. However, there are still no practical methods to characterize such potential non-invasively or previously. Monitoring cellular morphology is a practical and non-invasive approach for evaluating osteogenic potential. Unfortunately, such image-based approaches had been historically qualitative and requiring experienced interpretation. By combining the non-invasive attributes of microscopy with the latest technology allowing higher throughput and quantitative imaging metrics, we studied the applicability of morphometric features to quantitatively predict cellular osteogenic potential. We applied computational machine learning, combining cell morphology features with their corresponding biochemical osteogenic assay results, to develop prediction model of osteogenic differentiation. Using a dataset of 9,990 images automatically acquired by BioStation CT during osteogenic differentiation culture of hBMSCs, 666 morphometric features were extracted as parameters. Two commonly used osteogenic markers, alkaline phosphatase (ALP activity and calcium deposition were measured experimentally, and used as the true biological differentiation status to validate the prediction accuracy. Using time-course morphological features throughout differentiation culture, the prediction results highly correlated with the experimentally defined differentiation marker values (R>0.89 for both marker predictions. The clinical applicability of our morphology-based prediction was further examined with two scenarios: one using only historical cell images and the other using both historical images together with the patient's own cell images to predict a new patient's cellular potential. The prediction accuracy was found to be greatly enhanced

  16. Predictability of painful stimulation modulates the somatosensory-evoked potential in the rat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaap, M.W.H.; van Oostrom, H.; Doornenbal, A.; Baars, A.M.; Arndt, S.S.; Hellebrekers, L.J.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Somatosensory-evoked potentials (SEPs) are used in humans and animals to increase knowledge about nociception and pain. Since the SEP in humans increases when noxious stimuli are administered unpredictably, predictability potentially influences the SEP in animals as well. To assess the

  17. [Prediction of potential geographic distribution of Lyme disease in Qinghai province with Maximum Entropy model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lin; Hou, Xuexia; Liu, Huixin; Liu, Wei; Wan, Kanglin; Hao, Qin

    2016-01-01

    To predict the potential geographic distribution of Lyme disease in Qinghai by using Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt). The sero-diagnosis data of Lyme disease in 6 counties (Huzhu, Zeku, Tongde, Datong, Qilian and Xunhua) and the environmental and anthropogenic data including altitude, human footprint, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature in Qinghai province since 1990 were collected. By using the data of Huzhu Zeku and Tongde, the prediction of potential distribution of Lyme disease in Qinghai was conducted with MaxEnt. The prediction results were compared with the human sero-prevalence of Lyme disease in Datong, Qilian and Xunhua counties in Qinghai. Three hot spots of Lyme disease were predicted in Qinghai, which were all in the east forest areas. Furthermore, the NDVI showed the most important role in the model prediction, followed by human footprint. Datong, Qilian and Xunhua counties were all in eastern Qinghai. Xunhua was in hot spot areaⅡ, Datong was close to the north of hot spot area Ⅲ, while Qilian with lowest sero-prevalence of Lyme disease was not in the hot spot areas. The data were well modeled in MaxEnt (Area Under Curve=0.980). The actual distribution of Lyme disease in Qinghai was in consistent with the results of the model prediction. MaxEnt could be used in predicting the potential distribution patterns of Lyme disease. The distribution of vegetation and the range and intensity of human activity might be related with Lyme disease distribution.

  18. Personal contextual characteristics and cognitions: predicting child abuse potential and disciplinary style.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Christina M

    2010-02-01

    According to Social Information Processing theory, parents' cognitive processes influence their decisions to engage in physical maltreatment, although cognitions occur in the context of other aspects of the parents' life. The present study investigated whether cognitive processes (external locus of control, inappropriate developmental expectations) predicted child abuse potential and overreactive disciplinary style beyond personal contextual factors characteristic of the parent (hostility, stress, and coping). 363 parents were recruited online. Results highlight the relative importance of the contextual characteristics (particularly stress, avoidant coping, and irritability) relative to cognitive processes in predicting abuse potential and overreactive discipline strategies, although an external locus of control also significantly contributed. Findings do not support that parents' developmental expectations uniquely predict elevated abuse risk. Results indicate stressed parents who utilize avoidance coping strategies are more likely to use overreactive discipline and report increased abuse potential. Findings are discussed with regard to implications for prevention/intervention efforts.

  19. Additive effects of repetition and predictability during comprehension: evidence from event-related potentials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wing-Yee Chow

    Full Text Available Previous research has shown that neural responses to words during sentence comprehension are sensitive to both lexical repetition and a word's predictability in context. While previous research has often contrasted the effects of these variables (e.g. by looking at cases in which word repetition violates sentence-level constraints, little is known about how they work in tandem. In the current study we examine how recent exposure to a word and its predictability in context combine to impact lexical semantic processing. We devise a novel paradigm that combines reading comprehension with a recognition memory task, allowing for an orthogonal manipulation of a word's predictability and its repetition status. Using event-related brain potentials (ERPs, we show that word repetition and predictability have qualitatively similar and additive effects on the N400 amplitude. We propose that prior exposure to a word and predictability impact lexical semantic processing in an additive and independent fashion.

  20. Potential carcinogenicity predicted by computational toxicity evaluation of thiophosphate pesticides using QSTR/QSCarciAR model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrescu, Alina-Maria; Ilia, Gheorghe

    2017-07-01

    This study presents in silico prediction of toxic activities and carcinogenicity, represented by the potential carcinogenicity DSSTox/DBS, based on vector regression with a new Kernel activity, and correlating the predicted toxicity values through a QSAR model, namely: QSTR/QSCarciAR (quantitative structure toxicity relationship/quantitative structure carcinogenicity-activity relationship) described by 2D, 3D descriptors and biological descriptors. The results showed a connection between carcinogenicity (compared to the structure of a compound) and toxicity, as a basis for future studies on this subject, but each prediction is based on structurally similar compounds and the reactivation of the substructures of these compounds.

  1. Exploring the Potential of Predictive Analytics and Big Data in Emergency Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janke, Alexander T; Overbeek, Daniel L; Kocher, Keith E; Levy, Phillip D

    2016-02-01

    Clinical research often focuses on resource-intensive causal inference, whereas the potential of predictive analytics with constantly increasing big data sources remains largely unexplored. Basic prediction, divorced from causal inference, is much easier with big data. Emergency care may benefit from this simpler application of big data. Historically, predictive analytics have played an important role in emergency care as simple heuristics for risk stratification. These tools generally follow a standard approach: parsimonious criteria, easy computability, and independent validation with distinct populations. Simplicity in a prediction tool is valuable, but technological advances make it no longer a necessity. Emergency care could benefit from clinical predictions built using data science tools with abundant potential input variables available in electronic medical records. Patients' risks could be stratified more precisely with large pools of data and lower resource requirements for comparing each clinical encounter to those that came before it, benefiting clinical decisionmaking and health systems operations. The largest value of predictive analytics comes early in the clinical encounter, in which diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty are high and resource-committing decisions need to be made. We propose an agenda for widening the application of predictive analytics in emergency care. Throughout, we express cautious optimism because there are myriad challenges related to database infrastructure, practitioner uptake, and patient acceptance. The quality of routinely compiled clinical data will remain an important limitation. Complementing big data sources with prospective data may be necessary if predictive analytics are to achieve their full potential to improve care quality in the emergency department. Copyright © 2015 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Potential for Drug Abuse: the Predictive Role of Parenting Styles, Stress and Type D Personality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mahin soheili

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study was an attempt to predict potential for drug abuse on the basis of three predictors of parenting style, stress and type D personality. Method: In this descriptive-correlational study, 200 students (100 males and 100 females of Islamic Azad University of Karaj were selected by convenience sampling. For data collection, perceived parenting styles questionnaire, perceived stress scale, type D personality scale, and addiction potential scale were used. Results: The results showed that rejecting/neglecting parenting style and emotional warmth were positively and negatively correlated with addiction potential, respectively. Conclusion: The child-parent relationship and also the relationship between stress and type D personality can be considered as predictive factors in addiction potential.

  3. Evaluation of DNA variants associated with androgenetic alopecia and their potential to predict male pattern baldness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcińska, Magdalena; Pośpiech, Ewelina; Abidi, Sarah; Andersen, Jeppe Dyrberg; van den Berge, Margreet; Carracedo, Ángel; Eduardoff, Mayra; Marczakiewicz-Lustig, Anna; Morling, Niels; Sijen, Titia; Skowron, Małgorzata; Söchtig, Jens; Syndercombe-Court, Denise; Weiler, Natalie; Schneider, Peter M; Ballard, David; Børsting, Claus; Parson, Walther; Phillips, Chris; Branicki, Wojciech

    2015-01-01

    Androgenetic alopecia, known in men as male pattern baldness (MPB), is a very conspicuous condition that is particularly frequent among European men and thus contributes markedly to variation in physical appearance traits amongst Europeans. Recent studies have revealed multiple genes and polymorphisms to be associated with susceptibility to MPB. In this study, 50 candidate SNPs for androgenetic alopecia were analyzed in order to verify their potential to predict MPB. Significant associations were confirmed for 29 SNPs from chromosomes X, 1, 5, 7, 18 and 20. A simple 5-SNP prediction model and an extended 20-SNP model were developed based on a discovery panel of 305 males from various European populations fitting one of two distinct phenotype categories. The first category consisted of men below 50 years of age with significant baldness and the second; men aged 50 years or older lacking baldness. The simple model comprised the five best predictors: rs5919324 near AR, rs1998076 in the 20p11 region, rs929626 in EBF1, rs12565727 in TARDBP and rs756853 in HDAC9. The extended prediction model added 15 SNPs from five genomic regions that improved overall prevalence-adjusted predictive accuracy measured by area under the receiver characteristic operating curve (AUC). Both models were evaluated for predictive accuracy using a test set of 300 males reflecting the general European population. Applying a 65% probability threshold, high prediction sensitivity of 87.1% but low specificity of 42.4% was obtained in men aged <50 years. In men aged ≥50, prediction sensitivity was slightly lower at 67.7% while specificity reached 90%. Overall, the AUC=0.761 calculated for men at or above 50 years of age indicates these SNPs offer considerable potential for the application of genetic tests to predict MPB patterns, adding a highly informative predictive system to the emerging field of forensic analysis of externally visible characteristics.

  4. Evaluation of DNA variants associated with androgenetic alopecia and their potential to predict male pattern baldness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Marcińska

    Full Text Available Androgenetic alopecia, known in men as male pattern baldness (MPB, is a very conspicuous condition that is particularly frequent among European men and thus contributes markedly to variation in physical appearance traits amongst Europeans. Recent studies have revealed multiple genes and polymorphisms to be associated with susceptibility to MPB. In this study, 50 candidate SNPs for androgenetic alopecia were analyzed in order to verify their potential to predict MPB. Significant associations were confirmed for 29 SNPs from chromosomes X, 1, 5, 7, 18 and 20. A simple 5-SNP prediction model and an extended 20-SNP model were developed based on a discovery panel of 305 males from various European populations fitting one of two distinct phenotype categories. The first category consisted of men below 50 years of age with significant baldness and the second; men aged 50 years or older lacking baldness. The simple model comprised the five best predictors: rs5919324 near AR, rs1998076 in the 20p11 region, rs929626 in EBF1, rs12565727 in TARDBP and rs756853 in HDAC9. The extended prediction model added 15 SNPs from five genomic regions that improved overall prevalence-adjusted predictive accuracy measured by area under the receiver characteristic operating curve (AUC. Both models were evaluated for predictive accuracy using a test set of 300 males reflecting the general European population. Applying a 65% probability threshold, high prediction sensitivity of 87.1% but low specificity of 42.4% was obtained in men aged <50 years. In men aged ≥50, prediction sensitivity was slightly lower at 67.7% while specificity reached 90%. Overall, the AUC=0.761 calculated for men at or above 50 years of age indicates these SNPs offer considerable potential for the application of genetic tests to predict MPB patterns, adding a highly informative predictive system to the emerging field of forensic analysis of externally visible characteristics.

  5. Identification of informative features for predicting proinflammatory potentials of engine exhausts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chia-Chi; Lin, Ying-Chi; Lin, Yuan-Chung; Jhang, Syu-Ruei; Tung, Chun-Wei

    2017-08-18

    The immunotoxicity of engine exhausts is of high concern to human health due to the increasing prevalence of immune-related diseases. However, the evaluation of immunotoxicity of engine exhausts is currently based on expensive and time-consuming experiments. It is desirable to develop efficient methods for immunotoxicity assessment. To accelerate the development of safe alternative fuels, this study proposed a computational method for identifying informative features for predicting proinflammatory potentials of engine exhausts. A principal component regression (PCR) algorithm was applied to develop prediction models. The informative features were identified by a sequential backward feature elimination (SBFE) algorithm. A total of 19 informative chemical and biological features were successfully identified by SBFE algorithm. The informative features were utilized to develop a computational method named FS-CBM for predicting proinflammatory potentials of engine exhausts. FS-CBM model achieved a high performance with correlation coefficient values of 0.997 and 0.943 obtained from training and independent test sets, respectively. The FS-CBM model was developed for predicting proinflammatory potentials of engine exhausts with a large improvement on prediction performance compared with our previous CBM model. The proposed method could be further applied to construct models for bioactivities of mixtures.

  6. Chemical structure-based predictive model for methanogenic anaerobic biodegradation potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meylan, William; Boethling, Robert; Aronson, Dallas; Howard, Philip; Tunkel, Jay

    2007-09-01

    Many screening-level models exist for predicting aerobic biodegradation potential from chemical structure, but anaerobic biodegradation generally has been ignored by modelers. We used a fragment contribution approach to develop a model for predicting biodegradation potential under methanogenic anaerobic conditions. The new model has 37 fragments (substructures) and classifies a substance as either fast or slow, relative to the potential to be biodegraded in the "serum bottle" anaerobic biodegradation screening test (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Guideline 311). The model correctly classified 90, 77, and 91% of the chemicals in the training set (n = 169) and two independent validation sets (n = 35 and 23), respectively. Accuracy of predictions of fast and slow degradation was equal for training-set chemicals, but fast-degradation predictions were less accurate than slow-degradation predictions for the validation sets. Analysis of the signs of the fragment coefficients for this and the other (aerobic) Biowin models suggests that in the context of simple group contribution models, the majority of positive and negative structural influences on ultimate degradation are the same for aerobic and methanogenic anaerobic biodegradation.

  7. In silico prediction of potential chemical reactions mediated by human enzymes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Myeong-Sang; Lee, Hyang-Mi; Park, Aaron; Park, Chungoo; Ceong, Hyithaek; Rhee, Ki-Hyeong; Na, Dokyun

    2018-06-13

    Administered drugs are often converted into an ineffective or activated form by enzymes in our body. Conventional in silico prediction approaches focused on therapeutically important enzymes such as CYP450. However, there are more than thousands of different cellular enzymes that potentially convert administered drug into other forms. We developed an in silico model to predict which of human enzymes including metabolic enzymes as well as CYP450 family can catalyze a given chemical compound. The prediction is based on the chemical and physical similarity between known enzyme substrates and a query chemical compound. Our in silico model was developed using multiple linear regression and the model showed high performance (AUC = 0.896) despite of the large number of enzymes. When evaluated on a test dataset, it also showed significantly high performance (AUC = 0.746). Interestingly, evaluation with literature data showed that our model can be used to predict not only enzymatic reactions but also drug conversion and enzyme inhibition. Our model was able to predict enzymatic reactions of a query molecule with a high accuracy. This may foster to discover new metabolic routes and to accelerate the computational development of drug candidates by enabling the prediction of the potential conversion of administered drugs into active or inactive forms.

  8. Prediction of Reduction Potentials of Copper Proteins with Continuum Electrostatics and Density Functional Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Nicholas J; Blanford, Christopher F; Warwicker, Jim; de Visser, Sam P

    2017-11-02

    Blue copper proteins, such as azurin, show dramatic changes in Cu 2+ /Cu + reduction potential upon mutation over the full physiological range. Hence, they have important functions in electron transfer and oxidation chemistry and have applications in industrial biotechnology. The details of what determines these reduction potential changes upon mutation are still unclear. Moreover, it has been difficult to model and predict the reduction potential of azurin mutants and currently no unique procedure or workflow pattern exists. Furthermore, high-level computational methods can be accurate but are too time consuming for practical use. In this work, a novel approach for calculating reduction potentials of azurin mutants is shown, based on a combination of continuum electrostatics, density functional theory and empirical hydrophobicity factors. Our method accurately reproduces experimental reduction potential changes of 30 mutants with respect to wildtype within experimental error and highlights the factors contributing to the reduction potential change. Finally, reduction potentials are predicted for a series of 124 new mutants that have not yet been investigated experimentally. Several mutants are identified that are located well over 10 Å from the copper center that change the reduction potential by more than 85 mV. The work shows that secondary coordination sphere mutations mostly lead to long-range electrostatic changes and hence can be modeled accurately with continuum electrostatics. © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA.

  9. Analyzing power in pp scattering at low energies: the Paris potential predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cote, J.; Pires, P.; Tourreil, R. de; Lacombe, M.; Loiseau, B.; Vinh Mau, R.

    1979-12-01

    Predictions of the Paris potential for the analyzing power in pp scattering at low energies are compared with recent high precision measurements at 6.14MeV and earlier measurements at 10 and 16MeV. Phase shift values are also presented and discussed in view of previous analyses

  10. Predicting Child Abuse Potential: An Empirical Investigation of Two Theoretical Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begle, Angela Moreland; Dumas, Jean E.; Hanson, Rochelle F.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated two theoretical risk models predicting child maltreatment potential: (a) Belsky's (1993) developmental-ecological model and (b) the cumulative risk model in a sample of 610 caregivers (49% African American, 46% European American; 53% single) with a child between 3 and 6 years old. Results extend the literature by using a…

  11. Statistical prediction of biomethane potentials based on the composition of lignocellulosic biomass

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sune Tjalfe; Spliid, Henrik; Østergård, Hanne

    2014-01-01

    Mixture models are introduced as a new and stronger methodology for statistical prediction of biomethane potentials (BPM) from lignocellulosic biomass compared to the linear regression models previously used. A large dataset from literature combined with our own data were analysed using canonical...

  12. Characterization of the glass transition of water predicted by molecular dynamics simulations using nonpolarizable intermolecular potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreck, Cara A; Mancera, Ricardo L

    2014-02-20

    Molecular dynamics simulations allow detailed study of the experimentally inaccessible liquid state of supercooled water below its homogeneous nucleation temperature and the characterization of the glass transition. Simple, nonpolarizable intermolecular potentials are commonly used in classical molecular dynamics simulations of water and aqueous systems due to their lower computational cost and their ability to reproduce a wide range of properties. Because the quality of these predictions varies between the potentials, the predicted glass transition of water is likely to be influenced by the choice of potential. We have thus conducted an extensive comparative investigation of various three-, four-, five-, and six-point water potentials in both the NPT and NVT ensembles. The T(g) predicted from NPT simulations is strongly correlated with the temperature of minimum density, whereas the maximum in the heat capacity plot corresponds to the minimum in the thermal expansion coefficient. In the NVT ensemble, these points are instead related to the maximum in the internal pressure and the minimum of its derivative, respectively. A detailed analysis of the hydrogen-bonding properties at the glass transition reveals that the extent of hydrogen-bonds lost upon the melting of the glassy state is related to the height of the heat capacity peak and varies between water potentials.

  13. Testing predictions of the quantum landscape multiverse 2: the exponential inflationary potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valentino, Eleonora Di; Mersini-Houghton, Laura

    2017-01-01

    The 2015 Planck data release tightened the region of the allowed inflationary models. Inflationary models with convex potentials have now been ruled out since they produce a large tensor to scalar ratio. Meanwhile the same data offers interesting hints on possible deviations from the standard picture of CMB perturbations. Here we revisit the predictions of the theory of the origin of the universe from the landscape multiverse for the case of exponential inflation, for two reasons: firstly to check the status of the anomalies associated with this theory, in the light of the recent Planck data; secondly, to search for a counterexample whereby new physics modifications may bring convex inflationary potentials, thought to have been ruled out, back into the region of potentials allowed by data. Using the exponential inflation as an example of convex potentials, we find that the answer to both tests is positive: modifications to the perturbation spectrum and to the Newtonian potential of the universe originating from the quantum entanglement, bring the exponential potential, back within the allowed region of current data; and, the series of anomalies previously predicted in this theory, is still in good agreement with current data. Hence our finding for this convex potential comes at the price of allowing for additional thermal relic particles, equivalently dark radiation, in the early universe.

  14. Testing predictions of the quantum landscape multiverse 2: the exponential inflationary potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valentino, Eleonora Di [Institut d' Astrophysique de Paris (UMR7095: CNRS and UPMC-Sorbonne Universities), F-75014, Paris (France); Mersini-Houghton, Laura, E-mail: valentin@iap.fr, E-mail: mersini@physics.unc.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, UNC-Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The 2015 Planck data release tightened the region of the allowed inflationary models. Inflationary models with convex potentials have now been ruled out since they produce a large tensor to scalar ratio. Meanwhile the same data offers interesting hints on possible deviations from the standard picture of CMB perturbations. Here we revisit the predictions of the theory of the origin of the universe from the landscape multiverse for the case of exponential inflation, for two reasons: firstly to check the status of the anomalies associated with this theory, in the light of the recent Planck data; secondly, to search for a counterexample whereby new physics modifications may bring convex inflationary potentials, thought to have been ruled out, back into the region of potentials allowed by data. Using the exponential inflation as an example of convex potentials, we find that the answer to both tests is positive: modifications to the perturbation spectrum and to the Newtonian potential of the universe originating from the quantum entanglement, bring the exponential potential, back within the allowed region of current data; and, the series of anomalies previously predicted in this theory, is still in good agreement with current data. Hence our finding for this convex potential comes at the price of allowing for additional thermal relic particles, equivalently dark radiation, in the early universe.

  15. Predictions of soil-water potentials in the north-western Sonoran Desert

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, D.R.; Nobel, P.S.

    1986-03-01

    A simple computer model was developed to predict soil-water potential at a Sonoran Desert site. The variability of precipitation there, coupled with the low water-holding capacity of the sandy soil, result in large temporal and spatial variations in soil-water potential. Predicted soil-water potentials for depths of 5, 10 and 20 cm were in close agreement with measured values as the soil dried after an application of water. Predicted values at a depth of 10 cm, the mean rooting depth of Agave deserti and other succulents common at the study site, also agreed with soil-water potentials measured in the field throughout 1 year. Both soil-water potential and evaporation from the soil surface were very sensitive to simulated changes in the hydraulic conductivity of the soil. The annual duration of soil moisture adequate for succulents was dependent on the rainfall as well as on the spacing and amount of individual rainfalls. The portion of annual precipitation evaporated from the soil surface varied from 73% in a dry year (77 mm precipitation) to 59% in a wet year (597 mm). Besides using the actual precipitation events, simulations were performed using the figures for total monthly precipitation. Based on the average number of rainfalls for a particular month, the rainfall was distributed throughout the month in the model. Predictions using both daily and monthly inputs were in close agreement, especially for the number of days during a year when the soil-water potential was sufficient for water absorption by the succulent plants (above -0.5 MPa).

  16. Changes in event-related potential functional networks predict traumatic brain injury in piglets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atlan, Lorre S; Lan, Ingrid S; Smith, Colin; Margulies, Susan S

    2018-06-01

    Traumatic brain injury is a leading cause of cognitive and behavioral deficits in children in the US each year. None of the current diagnostic tools, such as quantitative cognitive and balance tests, have been validated to identify mild traumatic brain injury in infants, adults and animals. In this preliminary study, we report a novel, quantitative tool that has the potential to quickly and reliably diagnose traumatic brain injury and which can track the state of the brain during recovery across multiple ages and species. Using 32 scalp electrodes, we recorded involuntary auditory event-related potentials from 22 awake four-week-old piglets one day before and one, four, and seven days after two different injury types (diffuse and focal) or sham. From these recordings, we generated event-related potential functional networks and assessed whether the patterns of the observed changes in these networks could distinguish brain-injured piglets from non-injured. Piglet brains exhibited significant changes after injury, as evaluated by five network metrics. The injury prediction algorithm developed from our analysis of the changes in the event-related potentials functional networks ultimately produced a tool with 82% predictive accuracy. This novel approach is the first application of auditory event-related potential functional networks to the prediction of traumatic brain injury. The resulting tool is a robust, objective and predictive method that offers promise for detecting mild traumatic brain injury, in particular because collecting event-related potentials data is noninvasive and inexpensive. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  17. Effect of foam on temperature prediction and heat recovery potential from biological wastewater treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbala-Robles, L; Volcke, E I P; Samijn, A; Ronsse, F; Pieters, J G

    2016-05-15

    Heat is an important resource in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) which can be recovered. A prerequisite to determine the theoretical heat recovery potential is an accurate heat balance model for temperature prediction. The insulating effect of foam present on the basin surface and its influence on temperature prediction were assessed in this study. Experiments were carried out to characterize the foam layer and its insulating properties. A refined dynamic temperature prediction model, taking into account the effect of foam, was set up. Simulation studies for a WWTP treating highly concentrated (manure) wastewater revealed that the foam layer had a significant effect on temperature prediction (3.8 ± 0.7 K over the year) and thus on the theoretical heat recovery potential (30% reduction when foam is not considered). Seasonal effects on the individual heat losses and heat gains were assessed. Additionally, the effects of the critical basin temperature above which heat is recovered, foam thickness, surface evaporation rate reduction and the non-absorbed solar radiation on the theoretical heat recovery potential were evaluated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Prediction markets and their potential role in biomedical research--a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan

    2010-01-01

    Predictions markets are marketplaces for trading contracts with payoffs that depend on the outcome of future events. Popular examples are markets on the outcome of presidential elections, where contracts pay $1 if a specific candidate wins the election and $0 if someone else wins. Contract prices on prediction markets can be interpreted as forecasts regarding the outcome of future events. Further attractive properties include the potential to aggregate private information, to generate and disseminate a consensus among the market participants, and to offer incentives for the acquisition of information. It has been argued that these properties might be valuable in the context of scientific research. In this review, we give an overview of key properties of prediction markets and discuss potential benefits for science. To illustrate these benefits for biomedical research, we discuss an example application in the context of decision making in research on the genetics of diseases. Moreover, some potential practical problems of prediction market application in science are discussed, and solutions are outlined. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Protein thermostability prediction within homologous families using temperature-dependent statistical potentials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrizio Pucci

    Full Text Available The ability to rationally modify targeted physical and biological features of a protein of interest holds promise in numerous academic and industrial applications and paves the way towards de novo protein design. In particular, bioprocesses that utilize the remarkable properties of enzymes would often benefit from mutants that remain active at temperatures that are either higher or lower than the physiological temperature, while maintaining the biological activity. Many in silico methods have been developed in recent years for predicting the thermodynamic stability of mutant proteins, but very few have focused on thermostability. To bridge this gap, we developed an algorithm for predicting the best descriptor of thermostability, namely the melting temperature Tm, from the protein's sequence and structure. Our method is applicable when the Tm of proteins homologous to the target protein are known. It is based on the design of several temperature-dependent statistical potentials, derived from datasets consisting of either mesostable or thermostable proteins. Linear combinations of these potentials have been shown to yield an estimation of the protein folding free energies at low and high temperatures, and the difference of these energies, a prediction of the melting temperature. This particular construction, that distinguishes between the interactions that contribute more than others to the stability at high temperatures and those that are more stabilizing at low T, gives better performances compared to the standard approach based on T-independent potentials which predict the thermal resistance from the thermodynamic stability. Our method has been tested on 45 proteins of known Tm that belong to 11 homologous families. The standard deviation between experimental and predicted Tm's is equal to 13.6°C in cross validation, and decreases to 8.3°C if the 6 worst predicted proteins are excluded. Possible extensions of our approach are discussed.

  20. New approach to predict photoallergic potentials of chemicals based on murine local lymph node assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeda, Yosuke; Hirosaki, Haruka; Yamanaka, Hidenori; Takeyoshi, Masahiro

    2018-05-23

    Photoallergic dermatitis, caused by pharmaceuticals and other consumer products, is a very important issue in human health. However, S10 guidelines of the International Conference on Harmonization do not recommend the existing prediction methods for photoallergy because of their low predictability in human cases. We applied local lymph node assay (LLNA), a reliable, quantitative skin sensitization prediction test, to develop a new photoallergy prediction method. This method involves a three-step approach: (1) ultraviolet (UV) absorption analysis; (2) determination of no observed adverse effect level for skin phototoxicity based on LLNA; and (3) photoallergy evaluation based on LLNA. Photoallergic potential of chemicals was evaluated by comparing lymph node cell proliferation among groups treated with chemicals with minimal effect levels of skin sensitization and skin phototoxicity under UV irradiation (UV+) or non-UV irradiation (UV-). A case showing significant difference (P < .05) in lymph node cell proliferation rates between UV- and UV+ groups was considered positive for photoallergic reaction. After testing 13 chemicals, seven human photoallergens tested positive and the other six, with no evidence of causing photoallergic dermatitis or UV absorption, tested negative. Among these chemicals, both doxycycline hydrochloride and minocycline hydrochloride were tetracycline antibiotics with different photoallergic properties, and the new method clearly distinguished between the photoallergic properties of these chemicals. These findings suggested high predictability of our method; therefore, it is promising and effective in predicting human photoallergens. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Impact of vegetation variability on potential predictability and skill of EC-Earth simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weiss, Martina; Hurk, Bart van den; Haarsma, Reindert; Hazeleger, Wilco [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands)

    2012-12-15

    Climate models often use a simplified and static representation of vegetation characteristics to determine fluxes of energy, momentum and water vapour between surface and lower atmosphere. In order to analyse the impact of short term variability in vegetation phenology, we use remotely-sensed leaf area index and albedo products to examine the role of vegetation in the coupled land-atmosphere system. Perfect model experiments are carried out to determine the impact of realistic temporal variability of vegetation on potential predictability of evaporation and temperature, as well as model skill of EC-Earth simulations. The length of the simulation period is hereby limited by the availability of satellite products to 2000-2010. While a realistic representation of vegetation positively influences the simulation of evaporation and its potential predictability, a positive impact on 2 m temperature is of smaller magnitude, regionally confined and more pronounced in climatically extreme years. (orig.)

  2. Empirical models for predicting wind potential for wind energy applications in rural locations of Nigeria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Odo, F.C. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria); Akubue, G.U.; Offiah, S.U.; Ugwuoke, P.E. [National Centre for Energy Research and Development, University of Nigeria, Nsukka (Nigeria)

    2013-07-01

    In this paper, we use the correlation between the average wind speed and ambient temperature to develop models for predicting wind potentials for two Nigerian locations. Assuming that the troposphere is a typical heterogeneous mixture of ideal gases, we find that for the studied locations, wind speed clearly correlates with ambient temperature in a simple polynomial of 3rd degree. The coefficient of determination and root-mean-square error of the models are 0.81; 0.0024 and 0.56; 0.0041, respectively, for Enugu (6.40N; 7.50E) and Owerri (5.50N; 7.00E). These results suggest that the temperature-based model can be used, with acceptable accuracy, in predicting wind potentials needed for preliminary design assessment of wind energy conversion devices for the locations and others with similar meteorological conditions.

  3. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Smolen

    Full Text Available Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP and depression (LTD at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  4. Molecular constraints on synaptic tagging and maintenance of long-term potentiation: a predictive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolen, Paul; Baxter, Douglas A; Byrne, John H

    2012-01-01

    Protein synthesis-dependent, late long-term potentiation (LTP) and depression (LTD) at glutamatergic hippocampal synapses are well characterized examples of long-term synaptic plasticity. Persistent increased activity of protein kinase M ζ (PKMζ) is thought essential for maintaining LTP. Additional spatial and temporal features that govern LTP and LTD induction are embodied in the synaptic tagging and capture (STC) and cross capture hypotheses. Only synapses that have been "tagged" by a stimulus sufficient for LTP and learning can "capture" PKMζ. A model was developed to simulate the dynamics of key molecules required for LTP and LTD. The model concisely represents relationships between tagging, capture, LTD, and LTP maintenance. The model successfully simulated LTP maintained by persistent synaptic PKMζ, STC, LTD, and cross capture, and makes testable predictions concerning the dynamics of PKMζ. The maintenance of LTP, and consequently of at least some forms of long-term memory, is predicted to require continual positive feedback in which PKMζ enhances its own synthesis only at potentiated synapses. This feedback underlies bistability in the activity of PKMζ. Second, cross capture requires the induction of LTD to induce dendritic PKMζ synthesis, although this may require tagging of a nearby synapse for LTP. The model also simulates the effects of PKMζ inhibition, and makes additional predictions for the dynamics of CaM kinases. Experiments testing the above predictions would significantly advance the understanding of memory maintenance.

  5. Metagenomic Functional Potential Predicts Degradation Rates of a Model Organophosphorus Xenobiotic in Pesticide Contaminated Soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas C. Jeffries

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Chemical contamination of natural and agricultural habitats is an increasing global problem and a major threat to sustainability and human health. Organophosphorus (OP compounds are one major class of contaminant and can undergo microbial degradation, however, no studies have applied system-wide ecogenomic tools to investigate OP degradation or use metagenomics to understand the underlying mechanisms of biodegradation in situ and predict degradation potential. Thus, there is a lack of knowledge regarding the functional genes and genomic potential underpinning degradation and community responses to contamination. Here we address this knowledge gap by performing shotgun sequencing of community DNA from agricultural soils with a history of pesticide usage and profiling shifts in functional genes and microbial taxa abundance. Our results showed two distinct groups of soils defined by differing functional and taxonomic profiles. Degradation assays suggested that these groups corresponded to the organophosphorus degradation potential of soils, with the fastest degrading community being defined by increases in transport and nutrient cycling pathways and enzymes potentially involved in phosphorus metabolism. This was against a backdrop of taxonomic community shifts potentially related to contamination adaptation and reflecting the legacy of exposure. Overall our results highlight the value of using holistic system-wide metagenomic approaches as a tool to predict microbial degradation in the context of the ecology of contaminated habitats.

  6. THE POTENTIAL OF THE EQUITY WORKING CAPITAL IN THE PREDICTION OF BANKRUPTCY

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel BRÎNDESCU – OLARIU

    2014-01-01

    The current study evaluates the potential of the equity working capital in predicting corporate bankruptcy. The population subjected to the analysis included all companies form Timis County (largest Romanian County) with yearly sales of over 10000 lei. The interest for the equity working capital was based on the recommendations of the literature, as well as on the availability of information concerning its values to all stakeholders. The event on which the research was focused was repr...

  7. Predicting the potential distribution of the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in East and Southeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moriguchi, Sachiko; Tominaga, Atsushi; Irwin, Kelly J; Freake, Michael J; Suzuki, Kazutaka; Goka, Koichi

    2015-04-08

    Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is the pathogen responsible for chytridiomycosis, a disease that is associated with a worldwide amphibian population decline. In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia based on limited occurrence data. Our goal was to design an effective survey area where efforts to detect the pathogen can be focused. We generated ecological niche models using the maximum-entropy approach, with alleviation of multicollinearity and spatial autocorrelation. We applied eigenvector-based spatial filters as independent variables, in addition to environmental variables, to resolve spatial autocorrelation, and compared the model's accuracy and the degree of spatial autocorrelation with those of a model estimated using only environmental variables. We were able to identify areas of high suitability for Bd with accuracy. Among the environmental variables, factors related to temperature and precipitation were more effective in predicting the potential distribution of Bd than factors related to land use and cover type. Our study successfully predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia. This information should now be used to prioritize survey areas and generate a surveillance program to detect the pathogen.

  8. Improving the Accuracy of a Heliocentric Potential (HCP Prediction Model for the Aviation Radiation Dose

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junga Hwang

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The space radiation dose over air routes including polar routes should be carefully considered, especially when space weather shows sudden disturbances such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs, flares, and accompanying solar energetic particle events. We recently established a heliocentric potential (HCP prediction model for real-time operation of the CARI-6 and CARI-6M programs. Specifically, the HCP value is used as a critical input value in the CARI-6/6M programs, which estimate the aviation route dose based on the effective dose rate. The CARI-6/6M approach is the most widely used technique, and the programs can be obtained from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA. However, HCP values are given at a one month delay on the FAA official webpage, which makes it difficult to obtain real-time information on the aviation route dose. In order to overcome this critical limitation regarding the time delay for space weather customers, we developed a HCP prediction model based on sunspot number variations (Hwang et al. 2015. In this paper, we focus on improvements to our HCP prediction model and update it with neutron monitoring data. We found that the most accurate method to derive the HCP value involves (1 real-time daily sunspot assessments, (2 predictions of the daily HCP by our prediction algorithm, and (3 calculations of the resultant daily effective dose rate. Additionally, we also derived the HCP prediction algorithm in this paper by using ground neutron counts. With the compensation stemming from the use of ground neutron count data, the newly developed HCP prediction model was improved.

  9. A Review of Auditory Prediction and Its Potential Role in Tinnitus Perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durai, Mithila; O'Keeffe, Mary G; Searchfield, Grant D

    2018-06-01

    The precise mechanisms underlying tinnitus perception and distress are still not fully understood. A recent proposition is that auditory prediction errors and related memory representations may play a role in driving tinnitus perception. It is of interest to further explore this. To obtain a comprehensive narrative synthesis of current research in relation to auditory prediction and its potential role in tinnitus perception and severity. A narrative review methodological framework was followed. The key words Prediction Auditory, Memory Prediction Auditory, Tinnitus AND Memory, Tinnitus AND Prediction in Article Title, Abstract, and Keywords were extensively searched on four databases: PubMed, Scopus, SpringerLink, and PsychINFO. All study types were selected from 2000-2016 (end of 2016) and had the following exclusion criteria applied: minimum age of participants article not available in English. Reference lists of articles were reviewed to identify any further relevant studies. Articles were short listed based on title relevance. After reading the abstracts and with consensus made between coauthors, a total of 114 studies were selected for charting data. The hierarchical predictive coding model based on the Bayesian brain hypothesis, attentional modulation and top-down feedback serves as the fundamental framework in current literature for how auditory prediction may occur. Predictions are integral to speech and music processing, as well as in sequential processing and identification of auditory objects during auditory streaming. Although deviant responses are observable from middle latency time ranges, the mismatch negativity (MMN) waveform is the most commonly studied electrophysiological index of auditory irregularity detection. However, limitations may apply when interpreting findings because of the debatable origin of the MMN and its restricted ability to model real-life, more complex auditory phenomenon. Cortical oscillatory band activity may act as

  10. Application of GIS based data driven evidential belief function model to predict groundwater potential zonation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nampak, Haleh; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Manap, Mohammad Abd

    2014-05-01

    The objective of this paper is to exploit potential application of an evidential belief function (EBF) model for spatial prediction of groundwater productivity at Langat basin area, Malaysia using geographic information system (GIS) technique. About 125 groundwater yield data were collected from well locations. Subsequently, the groundwater yield was divided into high (⩾11 m3/h) and low yields (divided into a testing dataset 70% (42 wells) for training the model and the remaining 30% (18 wells) was used for validation purpose. To perform cross validation, the frequency ratio (FR) approach was applied into remaining groundwater wells with low yield to show the spatial correlation between the low potential zones of groundwater productivity. A total of twelve groundwater conditioning factors that affect the storage of groundwater occurrences were derived from various data sources such as satellite based imagery, topographic maps and associated database. Those twelve groundwater conditioning factors are elevation, slope, curvature, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), drainage density, lithology, lineament density, land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil and rainfall. Subsequently, the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence model was applied to prepare the groundwater potential map. Finally, the result of groundwater potential map derived from belief map was validated using testing data. Furthermore, to compare the performance of the EBF result, logistic regression model was applied. The success-rate and prediction-rate curves were computed to estimate the efficiency of the employed EBF model compared to LR method. The validation results demonstrated that the success-rate for EBF and LR methods were 83% and 82% respectively. The area under the curve for prediction-rate of EBF and LR methods were calculated 78% and 72% respectively. The outputs achieved from the current research proved the efficiency of EBF in groundwater

  11. DNDO Report: Predicting Solar Modulation Potentials for Modeling Cosmic Background Radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Behne, Patrick Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-08-08

    The modeling of the detectability of special nuclear material (SNM) at ports and border crossings requires accurate knowledge of the background radiation at those locations. Background radiation originates from two main sources, cosmic and terrestrial. Cosmic background is produced by high-energy galactic cosmic rays (GCR) entering the atmosphere and inducing a cascade of particles that eventually impact the earth’s surface. The solar modulation potential represents one of the primary inputs to modeling cosmic background radiation. Usosokin et al. formally define solar modulation potential as “the mean energy loss [per unit charge] of a cosmic ray particle inside the heliosphere…” Modulation potential, a function of elevation, location, and time, shares an inverse relationship with cosmic background radiation. As a result, radiation detector thresholds require adjustment to account for differing background levels, caused partly by differing solar modulations. Failure to do so can result in higher rates of false positives and failed detection of SNM for low and high levels of solar modulation potential, respectively. This study focuses on solar modulation’s time dependence, and seeks the best method to predict modulation for future dates using Python. To address the task of predicting future solar modulation, we utilize both non-linear least squares sinusoidal curve fitting and cubic spline interpolation. This material will be published in transactions of the ANS winter meeting of November, 2016.

  12. Potential ecological risk assessment and prediction of soil heavy-metal pollution around coal gangue dump

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, X.; Lu, W. X.; Zhao, H. Q.; Yang, Q. C.; Yang, Z. P.

    2014-06-01

    The aim of the present study is to evaluate the potential ecological risk and trend of soil heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in Jilin Province (Northeast China). The concentrations of Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr and Zn were monitored by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The potential ecological risk index method developed by Hakanson (1980) was employed to assess the potential risk of heavy-metal pollution. The potential ecological risk in the order of ER(Cd) > ER(Pb) > ER(Cu) > ER(Cr) > ER(Zn) have been obtained, which showed that Cd was the most important factor leading to risk. Based on the Cd pollution history, the cumulative acceleration and cumulative rate of Cd were estimated, then the fixed number of years exceeding the standard prediction model was established, which was used to predict the pollution trend of Cd under the accelerated accumulation mode and the uniform mode. Pearson correlation analysis and correspondence analysis are employed to identify the sources of heavy metals and the relationship between sampling points and variables. These findings provided some useful insights for making appropriate management strategies to prevent or decrease heavy-metal pollution around a coal gangue dump in the Yangcaogou coal mine and other similar areas elsewhere.

  13. Prediction of Thorough QT study results using action potential simulations based on ion channel screens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirams, Gary R; Davies, Mark R; Brough, Stephen J; Bridgland-Taylor, Matthew H; Cui, Yi; Gavaghan, David J; Abi-Gerges, Najah

    2014-01-01

    Detection of drug-induced pro-arrhythmic risk is a primary concern for pharmaceutical companies and regulators. Increased risk is linked to prolongation of the QT interval on the body surface ECG. Recent studies have shown that multiple ion channel interactions can be required to predict changes in ventricular repolarisation and therefore QT intervals. In this study we attempt to predict the result of the human clinical Thorough QT (TQT) study, using multiple ion channel screening which is available early in drug development. Ion current reduction was measured, in the presence of marketed drugs which have had a TQT study, for channels encoded by hERG, CaV1.2, NaV1.5, KCNQ1/MinK, and Kv4.3/KChIP2.2. The screen was performed on two platforms - IonWorks Quattro (all 5 channels, 34 compounds), and IonWorks Barracuda (hERG & CaV1.2, 26 compounds). Concentration-effect curves were fitted to the resulting data, and used to calculate a percentage reduction in each current at a given concentration. Action potential simulations were then performed using the ten Tusscher and Panfilov (2006), Grandi et al. (2010) and O'Hara et al. (2011) human ventricular action potential models, pacing at 1Hz and running to steady state, for a range of concentrations. We compared simulated action potential duration predictions with the QT prolongation observed in the TQT studies. At the estimated concentrations, simulations tended to underestimate any observed QT prolongation. When considering a wider range of concentrations, and conventional patch clamp rather than screening data for hERG, prolongation of ≥5ms was predicted with up to 79% sensitivity and 100% specificity. This study provides a proof-of-principle for the prediction of human TQT study results using data available early in drug development. We highlight a number of areas that need refinement to improve the method's predictive power, but the results suggest that such approaches will provide a useful tool in cardiac safety

  14. Can phylogeny predict chemical diversity and potential medicinal activity of plants? A case study of Amaryllidaceae

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rønsted, Nina; Symonds, Matthew R. E.; Birkholm, Trine

    2012-01-01

    a predictive approach enabling more efficient selection of plants for the development of traditional medicine and lead discovery. However, this relationship has rarely been rigorously tested and the potential predictive power is consequently unknown. Results: We produced a phylogenetic hypothesis......Background: During evolution, plants and other organisms have developed a diversity of chemical defences, leading to the evolution of various groups of specialized metabolites selected for their endogenous biological function. A correlation between phylogeny and biosynthetic pathways could offer...... for the medicinally important plant subfamily Amaryllidoideae (Amaryllidaceae) based on parsimony and Bayesian analysis of nuclear, plastid, and mitochondrial DNA sequences of over 100 species. We tested if alkaloid diversity and activity in bioassays related to the central nervous system are significantly correlated...

  15. Fire behavior potential in central Saskatchewan under predicted climate change : summary document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parisien, M.; Hirsch, K.; Todd, B.; Flannigan, M.; Kafka, V.; Flynn, N.

    2005-01-01

    This study assesses fire danger and fire behaviour potential in central Saskatchewan using simulated climate scenarios produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), including scenario analysis of base, double and triple level carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and uses available forest fuels to develop an absolute measure of fire behaviour. For each of these climate scenarios, the CRCM-generated weather was used as input variables into the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System. Fire behavior potential was quantified using head fire intensity, a measure of the fire's energy output because it can be related to fire behavior characteristics, suppression effectiveness, and fire effects. The report discusses the implications of fire behavior potential changes for fire and forest management. Preliminary results suggest a large increase in area burned in the study area by the end of the twenty-first century. Some of the possible fire management activities for long-term prediction include: pre-positioning of resources, preparedness planning, prioritization of fire and forest management activities and fire threat evaluation. 16 refs., 1 tab, 7 figs

  16. Predicting abuse potential of stimulants and other dopaminergic drugs: overview and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huskinson, Sally L; Naylor, Jennifer E; Rowlett, James K; Freeman, Kevin B

    2014-12-01

    Examination of a drug's abuse potential at multiple levels of analysis (molecular/cellular action, whole-organism behavior, epidemiological data) is an essential component to regulating controlled substances under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA). We reviewed studies that examined several central nervous system (CNS) stimulants, focusing on those with primarily dopaminergic actions, in drug self-administration, drug discrimination, and physical dependence. For drug self-administration and drug discrimination, we distinguished between experiments conducted with rats and nonhuman primates (NHP) to highlight the common and unique attributes of each model in the assessment of abuse potential. Our review of drug self-administration studies suggests that this procedure is important in predicting abuse potential of dopaminergic compounds, but there were many false positives. We recommended that tests to determine how reinforcing a drug is relative to a known drug of abuse may be more predictive of abuse potential than tests that yield a binary, yes-or-no classification. Several false positives also occurred with drug discrimination. With this procedure, we recommended that future research follow a standard decision-tree approach that may require examining the drug being tested for abuse potential as the training stimulus. This approach would also allow several known drugs of abuse to be tested for substitution, and this may reduce false positives. Finally, we reviewed evidence of physical dependence with stimulants and discussed the feasibility of modeling these phenomena in nonhuman animals in a rational and practical fashion. This article is part of the Special Issue entitled 'CNS Stimulants'. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Prediction model of potential hepatocarcinogenicity of rat hepatocarcinogens using a large-scale toxicogenomics database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uehara, Takeki; Minowa, Yohsuke; Morikawa, Yuji; Kondo, Chiaki; Maruyama, Toshiyuki; Kato, Ikuo; Nakatsu, Noriyuki; Igarashi, Yoshinobu; Ono, Atsushi; Hayashi, Hitomi; Mitsumori, Kunitoshi; Yamada, Hiroshi; Ohno, Yasuo; Urushidani, Tetsuro

    2011-01-01

    The present study was performed to develop a robust gene-based prediction model for early assessment of potential hepatocarcinogenicity of chemicals in rats by using our toxicogenomics database, TG-GATEs (Genomics-Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System developed by the Toxicogenomics Project in Japan). The positive training set consisted of high- or middle-dose groups that received 6 different non-genotoxic hepatocarcinogens during a 28-day period. The negative training set consisted of high- or middle-dose groups of 54 non-carcinogens. Support vector machine combined with wrapper-type gene selection algorithms was used for modeling. Consequently, our best classifier yielded prediction accuracies for hepatocarcinogenicity of 99% sensitivity and 97% specificity in the training data set, and false positive prediction was almost completely eliminated. Pathway analysis of feature genes revealed that the mitogen-activated protein kinase p38- and phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase-centered interactome and the v-myc myelocytomatosis viral oncogene homolog-centered interactome were the 2 most significant networks. The usefulness and robustness of our predictor were further confirmed in an independent validation data set obtained from the public database. Interestingly, similar positive predictions were obtained in several genotoxic hepatocarcinogens as well as non-genotoxic hepatocarcinogens. These results indicate that the expression profiles of our newly selected candidate biomarker genes might be common characteristics in the early stage of carcinogenesis for both genotoxic and non-genotoxic carcinogens in the rat liver. Our toxicogenomic model might be useful for the prospective screening of hepatocarcinogenicity of compounds and prioritization of compounds for carcinogenicity testing. - Highlights: →We developed a toxicogenomic model to predict hepatocarcinogenicity of chemicals. →The optimized model consisting of 9 probes had 99% sensitivity and 97% specificity.

  18. Predicting hydrocarbon potential of an earth formation underlying a body of water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, I.R.; Demaison, G.J.

    1983-01-01

    A method for the on-site collection and examination of small concentrations of methane dissolved in water so as to predict hydrocarbon potential of an earth formation underlying a body of water, said formation being a source of said methane, comprises: (i) sampling the water; (ii) continuously vacuum separating said water into liquid and gas phases; (iii) quantitatively separating interfering gas species from methane; (iv) quantitatively oxidising said methane; (v) cryogenically trapping the resulting gaseous carbon dioxide and water vapor at a trapping station, and (vi) isotopically examining said trapped carbon dioxide and water vapour for carbon and deuterium distribution. (author)

  19. Campylobacter fetus subspecies: Comparative genomics and prediction of potential virulence targets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ali, Amjad; Soares, Siomar C.; Santos, Anderson R.

    2012-01-01

    . The potential candidate factors identified for attenuation and/or subunit vaccine development against C. fetus subspecies contain: nucleoside diphosphate kinase (Ndk), type IV secretion systems (T4SS), outer membrane proteins (OMP), substrate binding proteins CjaA and CjaC, surface array proteins, sap gene......, and cytolethal distending toxin (CDT). Significantly, many of those genes were found in genomic regions with signals of horizontal gene transfer and, therefore, predicted as putative pathogenicity islands. We found CRISPR loci and dam genes in an island specific for C. fetus subsp. fetus, and T4SS and sap genes...

  20. Testing predictions of the quantum landscape multiverse 1: the Starobinsky inflationary potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valentino, Eleonora Di; Mersini-Houghton, Laura

    2017-01-01

    The 2015 Planck data release has placed tight constraints on the allowed class of inflationary models. The current data favors concave downwards inflationary potentials while offering interesting hints on possible deviations from the standard picture of CMB perturbations. We here test the predictions of the theory of the origin of the universe from the landscape multiverse, against the most recent Planck data, for the case of concave downwards inflationary potentials, such as the Starobinsky model of inflation. By considering the quantum entanglement correction of the multiverse, we can place a lower limit on the local 'SUSY breaking' scale b > 1.2 × 10 7 GeV at 95% c.l. from Planck TT+lowTEB. We find that this limit is consistent with the range for b that allows the landscape multiverse to explain a serie of anomalies present in the current data.

  1. Testing predictions of the quantum landscape multiverse 1: the Starobinsky inflationary potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valentino, Eleonora Di [Institut d' Astrophysique de Paris (UMR7095: CNRS and UPMC-Sorbonne Universities), F-75014, Paris (France); Mersini-Houghton, Laura, E-mail: valentin@iap.fr, E-mail: mersini@physics.unc.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, UNC-Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The 2015 Planck data release has placed tight constraints on the allowed class of inflationary models. The current data favors concave downwards inflationary potentials while offering interesting hints on possible deviations from the standard picture of CMB perturbations. We here test the predictions of the theory of the origin of the universe from the landscape multiverse, against the most recent Planck data, for the case of concave downwards inflationary potentials, such as the Starobinsky model of inflation. By considering the quantum entanglement correction of the multiverse, we can place a lower limit on the local 'SUSY breaking' scale b > 1.2 × 10{sup 7} GeV at 95% c.l. from Planck TT+lowTEB. We find that this limit is consistent with the range for b that allows the landscape multiverse to explain a serie of anomalies present in the current data.

  2. Testing predictions of the quantum landscape multiverse 1: the Starobinsky inflationary potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Valentino, Eleonora; Mersini-Houghton, Laura

    2017-03-01

    The 2015 Planck data release has placed tight constraints on the allowed class of inflationary models. The current data favors concave downwards inflationary potentials while offering interesting hints on possible deviations from the standard picture of CMB perturbations. We here test the predictions of the theory of the origin of the universe from the landscape multiverse, against the most recent Planck data, for the case of concave downwards inflationary potentials, such as the Starobinsky model of inflation. By considering the quantum entanglement correction of the multiverse, we can place a lower limit on the local `SUSY breaking' scale b > 1.2 × 107 GeV at 95% c.l. from Planck TT+lowTEB. We find that this limit is consistent with the range for b that allows the landscape multiverse to explain a serie of anomalies present in the current data.

  3. The potential of continuous, local atomic clock measurements for earthquake prediction and volcanology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bondarescu Mihai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern optical atomic clocks along with the optical fiber technology currently being developed can measure the geoid, which is the equipotential surface that extends the mean sea level on continents, to a precision that competes with existing technology. In this proceeding, we point out that atomic clocks have the potential to not only map the sea level surface on continents, but also look at variations of the geoid as a function of time with unprecedented timing resolution. The local time series of the geoid has a plethora of applications. These include potential improvement in the predictions of earthquakes and volcanoes, and closer monitoring of ground uplift in areas where hydraulic fracturing is performed.

  4. Mechanism-Based Classification of PAH Mixtures to Predict Carcinogenic Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilton, Susan C; Siddens, Lisbeth K; Krueger, Sharon K; Larkin, Andrew J; Löhr, Christiane V; Williams, David E; Baird, William M; Waters, Katrina M

    2015-07-01

    We have previously shown that relative potency factors and DNA adduct measurements are inadequate for predicting carcinogenicity of certain polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and PAH mixtures, particularly those that function through alternate pathways or exhibit greater promotional activity compared to benzo[a]pyrene (BaP). Therefore, we developed a pathway-based approach for classification of tumor outcome after dermal exposure to PAH/mixtures. FVB/N mice were exposed to dibenzo[def,p]chrysene (DBC), BaP, or environmental PAH mixtures (Mix 1-3) following a 2-stage initiation/promotion skin tumor protocol. Resulting tumor incidence could be categorized by carcinogenic potency as DBC > BaP = Mix2 = Mix3 > Mix1 = Control, based on statistical significance. Gene expression profiles measured in skin of mice collected 12 h post-initiation were compared with tumor outcome for identification of short-term bioactivity profiles. A Bayesian integration model was utilized to identify biological pathways predictive of PAH carcinogenic potential during initiation. Integration of probability matrices from four enriched pathways (P PAH mixtures. These data further provide a 'source-to-outcome' model that could be used to predict PAH interactions during tumorigenesis and provide an example of how mode-of-action-based risk assessment could be employed for environmental PAH mixtures. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. Phylogenomic detection and functional prediction of genes potentially important for plant meiosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Luoyan; Kong, Hongzhi; Ma, Hong; Yang, Ji

    2018-02-15

    Meiosis is a specialized type of cell division necessary for sexual reproduction in eukaryotes. A better understanding of the cytological procedures of meiosis has been achieved by comprehensive cytogenetic studies in plants, while the genetic mechanisms regulating meiotic progression remain incompletely understood. The increasing accumulation of complete genome sequences and large-scale gene expression datasets has provided a powerful resource for phylogenomic inference and unsupervised identification of genes involved in plant meiosis. By integrating sequence homology and expression data, 164, 131, 124 and 162 genes potentially important for meiosis were identified in the genomes of Arabidopsis thaliana, Oryza sativa, Selaginella moellendorffii and Pogonatum aloides, respectively. The predicted genes were assigned to 45 meiotic GO terms, and their functions were related to different processes occurring during meiosis in various organisms. Most of the predicted meiotic genes underwent lineage-specific duplication events during plant evolution, with about 30% of the predicted genes retaining only a single copy in higher plant genomes. The results of this study provided clues to design experiments for better functional characterization of meiotic genes in plants, promoting the phylogenomic approach to the evolutionary dynamics of the plant meiotic machineries. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. CT volumetry can potentially predict the local stage for gastric cancer after chemotherapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhi-Cong; Wang, Chen; Ding, Ying; Ji, Yuan; Zeng, Meng-Su; Rao, Sheng-Xiang

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE We aimed to evaluate the value of CT tumor volumetry for predicting T and N stages of gastric cancer after chemotherapy, with pathologic results as the reference standard. METHODS This study retrospectively evaluated 42 patients diagnosed with gastric cancer, who underwent chemotherapy followed by surgery. Pre- and post-treatment CT tumor volumes (VT) were measured in portal venous phase and volume reduction ratios were calculated. Correlations between pre- and post-treatment VT, reduction ratio, and pathologic stages were analyzed. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analyses were also performed to assess diagnostic performance for prediction of downstaging to T0–2 stage and N0 stage. RESULTS Pretreatment VT, post-treatment VT, and VT reduction ratio were significantly correlated with T stage (rs=0.329, rs=0.546, rs= −0.422, respectively). Post-treatment VT and VT reduction ratio were significantly correlated with N stage (rs=0.442 and rs= −0.376, respectively). Pretreatment VT, post-treatment VT, and VT reduction ratio were significantly different between T0–2 and T3,4 stage tumors (P = 0.05, P volumetry, particularly post-treatment measurement of VT, is potentially valuable for predicting histopathologic T and N stages after chemotherapy in patients with gastric cancer. PMID:28703101

  7. Spike-threshold adaptation predicted by membrane potential dynamics in vivo.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertrand Fontaine

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Neurons encode information in sequences of spikes, which are triggered when their membrane potential crosses a threshold. In vivo, the spiking threshold displays large variability suggesting that threshold dynamics have a profound influence on how the combined input of a neuron is encoded in the spiking. Threshold variability could be explained by adaptation to the membrane potential. However, it could also be the case that most threshold variability reflects noise and processes other than threshold adaptation. Here, we investigated threshold variation in auditory neurons responses recorded in vivo in barn owls. We found that spike threshold is quantitatively predicted by a model in which the threshold adapts, tracking the membrane potential at a short timescale. As a result, in these neurons, slow voltage fluctuations do not contribute to spiking because they are filtered by threshold adaptation. More importantly, these neurons can only respond to input spikes arriving together on a millisecond timescale. These results demonstrate that fast adaptation to the membrane potential captures spike threshold variability in vivo.

  8. Appropriate experimental approaches for predicting abuse potential and addictive qualities in preclinical drug discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mead, Andy N

    2014-11-01

    Drug abuse is an increasing social and public health issue, putting the onus on drug developers and regulatory agencies to ensure that the abuse potential of novel drugs is adequately assessed prior to product launch. This review summarizes the core preclinical data that frequently contribute to building an understanding of abuse potential for a new molecular entity, in addition to highlighting models that can provide increased resolution regarding the level of risk. Second, an important distinction between abuse potential and addiction potential is drawn, with comments on how preclinical models can inform on each. While the currently adopted preclinical models possess strong predictive validity, there are areas for future refinement and research. These areas include a more refined use of self-administration models to assess relative reinforcement; and the need for open innovation in pursuing improvements. There is also the need for careful scientifically driven application of models rather than a standardization of methodologies, and the need to explore the opportunities that may exist for enhancing the value of physical dependence and withdrawal studies by focusing on withdrawal-induced drug seeking, rather than broad symptomology.

  9. Structural insights into Cydia pomonella pheromone binding protein 2 mediated prediction of potentially active semiochemicals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Zhen; Liu, Jiyuan; Zhang, Yalin

    2016-03-01

    Given the advantages of behavioral disruption application in pest control and the damage of Cydia pomonella, due progresses have not been made in searching active semiochemicals for codling moth. In this research, 31 candidate semiochemicals were ranked for their binding potential to Cydia pomonella pheromone binding protein 2 (CpomPBP2) by simulated docking, and this sorted result was confirmed by competitive binding assay. This high predicting accuracy of virtual screening led to the construction of a rapid and viable method for semiochemicals searching. By reference to binding mode analyses, hydrogen bond and hydrophobic interaction were suggested to be two key factors in determining ligand affinity, so is the length of molecule chain. So it is concluded that semiochemicals of appropriate chain length with hydroxyl group or carbonyl group at one head tended to be favored by CpomPBP2. Residues involved in binding with each ligand were pointed out as well, which were verified by computational alanine scanning mutagenesis. Progress made in the present study helps establish an efficient method for predicting potentially active compounds and prepares for the application of high-throughput virtual screening in searching semiochemicals by taking insights into binding mode analyses.

  10. The steady performance prediction of propeller-rudder-bulb system based on potential iterative method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Y B; Su, Y M; Ju, L; Huang, S L

    2012-01-01

    A new numerical method was developed for predicting the steady hydrodynamic performance of propeller-rudder-bulb system. In the calculation, the rudder and bulb was taken into account as a whole, the potential based surface panel method was applied both to propeller and rudder-bulb system. The interaction between propeller and rudder-bulb was taken into account by velocity potential iteration in which the influence of propeller rotation was considered by the average influence coefficient. In the influence coefficient computation, the singular value should be found and deleted. Numerical results showed that the method presented is effective for predicting the steady hydrodynamic performance of propeller-rudder system and propeller-rudder-bulb system. Comparing with the induced velocity iterative method, the method presented can save programming and calculation time. Changing dimensions, the principal parameter—bulb size that affect energy-saving effect was studied, the results show that the bulb on rudder have a optimal size at the design advance coefficient.

  11. Predicting wildfire ignitions, escapes, and large fire activity using Predictive Service’s 7-Day Fire Potential Outlook in the western USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karin L. Riley; Crystal Stonesifer; Haiganoush Preisler; Dave Calkin

    2014-01-01

    Can fire potential forecasts assist with pre-positioning of fire suppression resources, which could result in a cost savings to the United States government? Here, we present a preliminary assessment of the 7-Day Fire Potential Outlook forecasts made by the Predictive Services program. We utilized historical fire occurrence data and archived forecasts to assess how...

  12. Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuezhen Ge

    Full Text Available As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier (Coleoptera: Curculionidae has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010 and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040 provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0. Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

  13. Greenhouse crop residues: Energy potential and models for the prediction of their higher heating value

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callejon-Ferre, A.J.; Lopez-Martinez, J.A.; Manzano-Agugliaro, F. [Departamento de Ingenieria Rural, Universidad de Almeria, Ctra. Sacramento s/n, La Canada de San Urbano, 04120 Almeria (Spain); Velazquez-Marti, B. [Departamento de Ingenieria Rural y Agroalimentaria, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia (Spain)

    2011-02-15

    Almeria, in southeastern Spain, generates some 1,086,261 t year{sup -1} (fresh weight) of greenhouse crop (Cucurbita pepo L., Cucumis sativus L., Solanum melongena L., Solanum lycopersicum L., Phaseoulus vulgaris L., Capsicum annuum L., Citrillus vulgaris Schrad. and Cucumis melo L.) residues. The energy potential of this biomass is unclear. The aim of the present work was to accurately quantify this variable, differentiating between crop species while taking into consideration the area they each occupy. This, however, required the direct analysis of the higher heating value (HHV) of these residues, involving very expensive and therefore not commonly available equipment. Thus, a further aim was to develop models for predicting the HHV of these residues, taking into account variables measured by elemental and/or proximate analysis, thus providing an economically attractive alternative to direct analysis. All the analyses in this work involved the use of worldwide-recognised standards and methods. The total energy potential for these plant residues, as determined by direct analysis, was 1,003,497.49 MW h year{sup -1}. Twenty univariate and multivariate equations were developed to predict the HHV. The R{sup 2} and adjusted R{sup 2} values obtained for the univariate and multivariate models were 0.909 and 0.946 or above respectively. In all cases, the mean absolute percentage error varied between 0.344 and 2.533. These results show that any of these 20 equations could be used to accurately predict the HHV of crop residues. The residues produced by the Almeria greenhouse industry would appear to be an interesting source of renewable energy. (author)

  14. Oxidative potential of particulate matter 2.5 as predictive indicator of cellular stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crobeddu, Bélinda; Aragao-Santiago, Leticia; Bui, Linh-Chi; Boland, Sonja; Baeza Squiban, Armelle

    2017-01-01

    Particulate air pollution being recognized to be responsible for short and long term health effects, regulations for particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 (PM 2.5 ) are more and more restrictive. PM 2.5 regulation is based on mass without taking into account PM 2.5 composition that drives toxicity. Measurement of the oxidative potential (OP) of PM could be an additional PM indicator that would encompass the PM components involved in oxidative stress, the main mechanism of PM toxicity. We compared different methods to evaluate the intrinsic oxidative potential of PM 2.5 sampled in Paris and their ability to reflect the oxidative and inflammatory response in bronchial epithelial cells used as relevant target organ cells. The dithiothreitol depletion assay, the antioxidant (ascorbic acid and glutathione) depletion assay (OP AO ), the plasmid scission assay and the dichlorofluorescein (DCFH) oxidation assay used to characterize the OP of PM 2.5 (10–100 μg/mL) provided positive results of different magnitude with all the PM 2.5 samples used with significant correlation with different metals such as Cu and Zn as well as total polyaromatic hydrocarbons and the soluble organic fraction. The OP AO assay showed the best correlation with the production of intracellular reactive oxygen species by NCI-H292 cell line assessed by DCFH oxidation and with the expression of anti-oxidant genes (superoxide dismutase 2, heme-oxygenase-1) as well as the proinflammatory response (Interleukin 6) when exposed from 1 to 10 μg/cm 2 . The OP AO assay appears as the most prone to predict the biological effect driven by PM 2.5 and related to oxidative stress. - Highlights: • 5 Acellular assays were used to compare the intrinsic oxidative potential (OP) of PM. • The amount of ROS generation in bronchial cells is particle dependent. • Particles induce the expression of anti-oxidant and proinflammatory genes. • Biological effects correlates with OP assay

  15. Identification of potential prognostic microRNA biomarkers for predicting survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liao X

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Xiwen Liao,1 Guangzhi Zhu,1 Rui Huang,2 Chengkun Yang,1 Xiangkun Wang,1 Ketuan Huang,1 Tingdong Yu,1 Chuangye Han,1 Hao Su,1 Tao Peng1 1Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Hematology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, People’s Republic of China Background: The aim of the present study was to identify potential prognostic microRNA (miRNA biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC prognosis prediction based on a dataset from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA. Materials and methods: A miRNA sequencing dataset and corresponding clinical parameters of HCC were obtained from TCGA. Genome-wide univariate Cox regression analysis was used to screen prognostic differentially expressed miRNAs (DEMs, and multivariable Cox regression analysis was used for prognostic signature construction. Comprehensive survival analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of the prognostic signature. Results: Five miRNAs were regarded as prognostic DEMs and used for prognostic signature construction. The five-DEM prognostic signature performed well in prognosis prediction (adjusted P < 0.0001, adjusted hazard ratio = 2.249, 95% confidence interval =1.491–3.394, and time-dependent receiver–operating characteristic (ROC analysis showed an area under the curve (AUC of 0.765, 0.745, 0.725, and 0.687 for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year HCC overall survival (OS prediction, respectively. Comprehensive survival analysis of the prognostic signature suggests that the risk score model could serve as an independent factor of HCC and perform better in prognosis prediction than other traditional clinical indicators. Functional assessment of the target genes of hsa-mir-139 and hsa-mir-5003 indicates that they were significantly enriched in multiple biological processes and pathways, including cell proliferation and cell migration

  16. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for Glacier Hazards Assessment: Application to Predicting the Potential for Glacier Lake Outbursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furfaro, R.; Kargel, J. S.; Fink, W.; Bishop, M. P.

    2010-12-01

    Glaciers and ice sheets are among the largest unstable parts of the solid Earth. Generally, glaciers are devoid of resources (other than water), are dangerous, are unstable and no infrastructure is normally built directly on their surfaces. Areas down valley from large alpine glaciers are also commonly unstable due to landslide potential of moraines, debris flows, snow avalanches, outburst floods from glacier lakes, and other dynamical alpine processes; yet there exists much development and human occupation of some disaster-prone areas. Satellite remote sensing can be extremely effective in providing cost-effective and time- critical information. Space-based imagery can be used to monitor glacier outlines and their lakes, including processes such as iceberg calving and debris accumulation, as well as changing thicknesses and flow speeds. Such images can also be used to make preliminary identifications of specific hazardous spots and allows preliminary assessment of possible modes of future disaster occurrence. Autonomous assessment of glacier conditions and their potential for hazards would present a major advance and permit systematized analysis of more data than humans can assess. This technical leap will require the design and implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms specifically designed to mimic glacier experts’ reasoning. Here, we introduce the theory of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) as an AI tool for predicting and assessing natural hazards in alpine glacier environments. FCM techniques are employed to represent expert knowledge of glaciers physical processes. A cognitive model embedded in a fuzzy logic framework is constructed via the synergistic interaction between glaciologists and AI experts. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed AI methodology as applied to predicting hazards in glacier environments, we designed and implemented a FCM that addresses the challenging problem of autonomously assessing the Glacier Lake Outburst Flow

  17. Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugiu, Luca; Manninen, Iita; Rothäusler, Eva; Jormalainen, Veijo

    2018-03-01

    Climate change is threating species' persistence worldwide. To predict species responses to climate change we need information not just on their environmental tolerance but also on its adaptive potential. We tested how the foundation species of rocky littoral habitats, Fucus vesiculosus, responds to combined hyposalinity and warming projected to the Baltic Sea by 2070-2099. We quantified responses of replicated populations originating from the entrance, central, and marginal Baltic regions. Using replicated individuals, we tested for the presence of within-population tolerance variation. Future conditions hampered growth and survival of the central and marginal populations whereas the entrance populations fared well. Further, both the among- and within-population variation in responses to climate change indicated existence of genetic variation in tolerance. Such standing genetic variation provides the raw material necessary for adaptation to a changing environment, which may eventually ensure the persistence of the species in the inner Baltic Sea. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Apparatus for use in predicting hydrocarbon potential of an earth formation underlying a body of water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demaison, G.J.; Kaplan, I.R.

    1984-01-01

    In a relatively quick, convenient and highly accurate technique for the determination of a carbonaceous gas, normally methane, contained in water samples collected at depth from a body of water overlying an earth formation to predict the hydrocarbon-containing potential of the earth formation, carbonaceous gaseous constituents liberated from the water are carried via an air stream to flow into and through an isotope trapping network where collection in microlitre amounts occurs. The isotope capture apparatus comprises a box-like structure formed from a series of panel members, front panel member intersecting the bottom panel member near the centre of the latter and carrying interconnected gas trapping and stripping sections, the structure also comprising a detachable lid connectable by means, for protection of sections. (author)

  19. Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Li, J. Y.

    2001-01-01

    In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

  20. Transcriptome-wide identification of Rauvolfia serpentina microRNAs and prediction of their potential targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash, Pravin; Rajakani, Raja; Gupta, Vikrant

    2016-04-01

    MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are small non-coding RNAs of ∼ 19-24 nucleotides (nt) in length and considered as potent regulators of gene expression at transcriptional and post-transcriptional levels. Here we report the identification and characterization of 15 conserved miRNAs belonging to 13 families from Rauvolfia serpentina through in silico analysis of available nucleotide dataset. The identified mature R. serpentina miRNAs (rse-miRNAs) ranged between 20 and 22nt in length, and the average minimal folding free energy index (MFEI) value of rse-miRNA precursor sequences was found to be -0.815 kcal/mol. Using the identified rse-miRNAs as query, their potential targets were predicted in R. serpentina and other plant species. Gene Ontology (GO) annotation showed that predicted targets of rse-miRNAs include transcription factors as well as genes involved in diverse biological processes such as primary and secondary metabolism, stress response, disease resistance, growth, and development. Few rse-miRNAs were predicted to target genes of pharmaceutically important secondary metabolic pathways such as alkaloids and anthocyanin biosynthesis. Phylogenetic analysis showed the evolutionary relationship of rse-miRNAs and their precursor sequences to homologous pre-miRNA sequences from other plant species. The findings under present study besides giving first hand information about R. serpentina miRNAs and their targets, also contributes towards the better understanding of miRNA-mediated gene regulatory processes in plants. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Computational Prediction of MicroRNAs from Toxoplasma gondii Potentially Regulating the Hosts’ Gene Expression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Müşerref Duygu Saçar

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available MicroRNAs (miRNAs were discovered two decades ago, yet there is still a great need for further studies elucidating their genesis and targeting in different phyla. Since experimental discovery and validation of miRNAs is difficult, computational predictions are indispensable and today most computational approaches employ machine learning. Toxoplasma gondii, a parasite residing within the cells of its hosts like human, uses miRNAs for its post-transcriptional gene regulation. It may also regulate its hosts’ gene expression, which has been shown in brain cancer. Since previous studies have shown that overexpressed miRNAs within the host are causal for disease onset, we hypothesized that T. gondii could export miRNAs into its host cell. We computationally predicted all hairpins from the genome of T. gondii and used mouse and human models to filter possible candidates. These were then further compared to known miRNAs in human and rodents and their expression was examined for T. gondii grown in mouse and human hosts, respectively. We found that among the millions of potential hairpins in T. gondii, only a few thousand pass filtering using a human or mouse model and that even fewer of those are expressed. Since they are expressed and differentially expressed in rodents and human, we suggest that there is a chance that T. gondii may export miRNAs into its hosts for direct regulation.

  2. Prediction of Potential Hit Song and Musical Genre Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monterola, Christopher; Abundo, Cheryl; Tugaff, Jeric; Venturina, Lorcel Ericka

    Accurately quantifying the goodness of music based on the seemingly subjective taste of the public is a multi-million industry. Recording companies can make sound decisions on which songs or artists to prioritize if accurate forecasting is achieved. We extract 56 single-valued musical features (e.g. pitch and tempo) from 380 Original Pilipino Music (OPM) songs (190 are hit songs) released from 2004 to 2006. Based on an effect size criterion which measures a variable's discriminating power, the 20 highest ranked features are fed to a classifier tasked to predict hit songs. We show that regardless of musical genre, a trained feed-forward neural network (NN) can predict potential hit songs with an average accuracy of ΦNN = 81%. The accuracy is about +20% higher than those of standard classifiers such as linear discriminant analysis (LDA, ΦLDA = 61%) and classification and regression trees (CART, ΦCART = 57%). Both LDA and CART are above the proportional chance criterion (PCC, ΦPCC = 50%) but are slightly below the suggested acceptable classifier requirement of 1.25*ΦPCC = 63%. Utilizing a similar procedure, we demonstrate that different genres (ballad, alternative rock or rock) of OPM songs can be automatically classified with near perfect accuracy using LDA or NN but only around 77% using CART.

  3. Can phylogeny predict chemical diversity and potential medicinal activity of plants? A case study of amaryllidaceae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rønsted Nina

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During evolution, plants and other organisms have developed a diversity of chemical defences, leading to the evolution of various groups of specialized metabolites selected for their endogenous biological function. A correlation between phylogeny and biosynthetic pathways could offer a predictive approach enabling more efficient selection of plants for the development of traditional medicine and lead discovery. However, this relationship has rarely been rigorously tested and the potential predictive power is consequently unknown. Results We produced a phylogenetic hypothesis for the medicinally important plant subfamily Amaryllidoideae (Amaryllidaceae based on parsimony and Bayesian analysis of nuclear, plastid, and mitochondrial DNA sequences of over 100 species. We tested if alkaloid diversity and activity in bioassays related to the central nervous system are significantly correlated with phylogeny and found evidence for a significant phylogenetic signal in these traits, although the effect is not strong. Conclusions Several genera are non-monophyletic emphasizing the importance of using phylogeny for interpretation of character distribution. Alkaloid diversity and in vitro inhibition of acetylcholinesterase (AChE and binding to the serotonin reuptake transporter (SERT are significantly correlated with phylogeny. This has implications for the use of phylogenies to interpret chemical evolution and biosynthetic pathways, to select candidate taxa for lead discovery, and to make recommendations for policies regarding traditional use and conservation priorities.

  4. Can Prostate-Specific Antigen Kinetics before Prostate Biopsy Predict the Malignant Potential of Prostate Cancer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang Jin; Jeong, Tae Yoong; Yoo, Dae Seon; Park, Jinsung; Cho, Seok; Kang, Seok Ho; Lee, Sang Hyub; Jeon, Seung Hyun; Lee, Tchun Yong; Park, Sung Yul

    2015-11-01

    To predict the malignant potential of prostate cancer (PCa) according to prostate-specific antigen velocity (PSAV), PSA density (PSAD), free/total PSA ratio (%fPSA), and digital rectal examination (DRE). From January 2009 to December 2012, 548 adult male patients were diagnosed with PCa by prostate biopsy at four hospitals in Korea. We retrospectively analyzed 155 adult male patients with an initial PSA level≤10 ng/mL and whose PSA levels had been checked more than two times at least 6 months before they had been diagnosed with PCa, with test intervals of more than 3 months. Patients with a urinary tract infection, and patients who had previously undergone cystoscopy or surgery of the prostate were excluded. We separated patients into two groups according to Gleason sum [Gleason sum≤7 (n=134) or Gleason sum≥8 (n=21)] and the presence of extracapsular invasion [organ confined (n=129) or extracapsular invasion (n=26)]. Differences between the groups were compared. The group with a Gleason sum≥8 or extracapsular invasion of PCa showed high PSAV and significantly lower %fPSA. There were no significant differences in PSAD and the presence of an abnormality on DRE between two groups. In PCa patients treated with other therapies besides prostatectomy, a high PSA velocity and a low %fPSA may predict high grade PCa with a Gleason sum≥8 or the presence of extracapsular invasion.

  5. Combined visual and motor evoked potentials predict multiple sclerosis disability after 20 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlaeger, Regina; Schindler, Christian; Grize, Leticia; Dellas, Sophie; Radue, Ernst W; Kappos, Ludwig; Fuhr, Peter

    2014-09-01

    The development of predictors of multiple sclerosis (MS) disability is difficult due to the complex interplay of pathophysiological and adaptive processes. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether combined evoked potential (EP)-measures allow prediction of MS disability after 20 years. We examined 28 patients with clinically definite MS according to Poser's criteria with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores, combined visual and motor EPs at entry (T0), 6 (T1), 12 (T2) and 24 (T3) months, and a cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan at T0 and T2. EDSS testing was repeated at year 14 (T4) and year 20 (T5). Spearman rank correlation was used. We performed a multivariable regression analysis to examine predictive relationships of the sum of z-transformed EP latencies (s-EPT0) and other baseline variables with EDSST5. We found that s-EPT0 correlated with EDSST5 (rho=0.72, pdisability in MS. © The Author(s) 2014.

  6. Potentials of mean force for protein structure prediction vindicated, formalized and generalized.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hamelryck

    Full Text Available Understanding protein structure is of crucial importance in science, medicine and biotechnology. For about two decades, knowledge-based potentials based on pairwise distances--so-called "potentials of mean force" (PMFs--have been center stage in the prediction and design of protein structure and the simulation of protein folding. However, the validity, scope and limitations of these potentials are still vigorously debated and disputed, and the optimal choice of the reference state--a necessary component of these potentials--is an unsolved problem. PMFs are loosely justified by analogy to the reversible work theorem in statistical physics, or by a statistical argument based on a likelihood function. Both justifications are insightful but leave many questions unanswered. Here, we show for the first time that PMFs can be seen as approximations to quantities that do have a rigorous probabilistic justification: they naturally arise when probability distributions over different features of proteins need to be combined. We call these quantities "reference ratio distributions" deriving from the application of the "reference ratio method." This new view is not only of theoretical relevance but leads to many insights that are of direct practical use: the reference state is uniquely defined and does not require external physical insights; the approach can be generalized beyond pairwise distances to arbitrary features of protein structure; and it becomes clear for which purposes the use of these quantities is justified. We illustrate these insights with two applications, involving the radius of gyration and hydrogen bonding. In the latter case, we also show how the reference ratio method can be iteratively applied to sculpt an energy funnel. Our results considerably increase the understanding and scope of energy functions derived from known biomolecular structures.

  7. Exploring the potential of 3D Zernike descriptors and SVM for protein-protein interface prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daberdaku, Sebastian; Ferrari, Carlo

    2018-02-06

    The correct determination of protein-protein interaction interfaces is important for understanding disease mechanisms and for rational drug design. To date, several computational methods for the prediction of protein interfaces have been developed, but the interface prediction problem is still not fully understood. Experimental evidence suggests that the location of binding sites is imprinted in the protein structure, but there are major differences among the interfaces of the various protein types: the characterising properties can vary a lot depending on the interaction type and function. The selection of an optimal set of features characterising the protein interface and the development of an effective method to represent and capture the complex protein recognition patterns are of paramount importance for this task. In this work we investigate the potential of a novel local surface descriptor based on 3D Zernike moments for the interface prediction task. Descriptors invariant to roto-translations are extracted from circular patches of the protein surface enriched with physico-chemical properties from the HQI8 amino acid index set, and are used as samples for a binary classification problem. Support Vector Machines are used as a classifier to distinguish interface local surface patches from non-interface ones. The proposed method was validated on 16 classes of proteins extracted from the Protein-Protein Docking Benchmark 5.0 and compared to other state-of-the-art protein interface predictors (SPPIDER, PrISE and NPS-HomPPI). The 3D Zernike descriptors are able to capture the similarity among patterns of physico-chemical and biochemical properties mapped on the protein surface arising from the various spatial arrangements of the underlying residues, and their usage can be easily extended to other sets of amino acid properties. The results suggest that the choice of a proper set of features characterising the protein interface is crucial for the interface prediction

  8. Progastrin: a potential predictive marker of liver metastasis in colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westwood, David A; Patel, Oneel; Christophi, Christopher; Shulkes, Arthur; Baldwin, Graham S

    2017-07-01

    Staging of colorectal cancer often fails to discriminate outcomes of patients with morphologically similar tumours that exhibit different clinical behaviours. Data from several studies suggest that the gastrin family of growth factors potentiates colorectal cancer tumourigenesis. The aim of this study was to investigate whether progastrin expression may predict clinical outcome in colorectal cancer. Patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma of identical depth of invasion who had not received neoadjuvant therapy were included. The patients either had stage IIa disease with greater than 3-year disease-free survival without adjuvant therapy or stage IV disease with liver metastases on staging CT. Progastrin expression in tumour sections was scored with reference to the intensity and area of immunohistochemical staining. Progastrin expression by stage IV tumours was significantly greater than stage IIa tumours with mean progastrin immunopositivity scores of 2.1 ± 0.2 versus 0.5 ± 0.2, respectively (P colorectal cancer and supports its clinical relevance and potential use as a biomarker.

  9. The prediction of airborne and structure-borne noise potential for a tire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakamoto, Nicholas Y.

    Tire/pavement interaction noise is a major component of both exterior pass-by noise and vehicle interior noise. The current testing methods for ranking tires from loud to quiet require expensive equipment, multiple tires, and/or long experimental set-up and run times. If a laboratory based off-vehicle test could be used to identify the airborne and structure-borne potential of a tire from its dynamic characteristics, a relative ranking of a large group of tires could be performed at relatively modest expense. This would provide a smaller sample set of tires for follow-up testing and thus save expense for automobile OEMs. The focus of this research was identifying key noise features from a tire/pavement experiment. These results were compared against a stationary tire test in which the natural response of the tire to a forced input was measured. Since speed was identified as having some effect on the noise, an input function was also developed to allow the tires to be ranked at an appropriate speed. A relative noise model was used on a second sample set of tires to verify if the ranking could be used against interior vehicle measurements. While overall level analysis of the specified spectrum had mixed success, important noise generating features were identified, and the methods used could be improved to develop a standard off-vehicle test to predict a tire's noise potential.

  10. Study of Monte Carlo Simulation Method for Methane Phase Diagram Prediction using Two Different Potential Models

    KAUST Repository

    Kadoura, Ahmad

    2011-06-06

    Lennard‐Jones (L‐J) and Buckingham exponential‐6 (exp‐6) potential models were used to produce isotherms for methane at temperatures below and above critical one. Molecular simulation approach, particularly Monte Carlo simulations, were employed to create these isotherms working with both canonical and Gibbs ensembles. Experiments in canonical ensemble with each model were conducted to estimate pressures at a range of temperatures above methane critical temperature. Results were collected and compared to experimental data existing in literature; both models showed an elegant agreement with the experimental data. In parallel, experiments below critical temperature were run in Gibbs ensemble using L‐J model only. Upon comparing results with experimental ones, a good fit was obtained with small deviations. The work was further developed by adding some statistical studies in order to achieve better understanding and interpretation to the estimated quantities by the simulation. Methane phase diagrams were successfully reproduced by an efficient molecular simulation technique with different potential models. This relatively simple demonstration shows how powerful molecular simulation methods could be, hence further applications on more complicated systems are considered. Prediction of phase behavior of elemental sulfur in sour natural gases has been an interesting and challenging field in oil and gas industry. Determination of elemental sulfur solubility conditions helps avoiding all kinds of problems caused by its dissolution in gas production and transportation processes. For this purpose, further enhancement to the methods used is to be considered in order to successfully simulate elemental sulfur phase behavior in sour natural gases mixtures.

  11. Insight into Potential Probiotic Markers Predicted in Lactobacillus pentosus MP-10 Genome Sequence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hikmate Abriouel

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Lactobacillus pentosus MP-10 is a potential probiotic lactic acid bacterium originally isolated from naturally fermented Aloreña green table olives. The entire genome sequence was annotated to in silico analyze the molecular mechanisms involved in the adaptation of L. pentosus MP-10 to the human gastrointestinal tract (GIT, such as carbohydrate metabolism (related with prebiotic utilization and the proteins involved in bacteria–host interactions. We predicted an arsenal of genes coding for carbohydrate-modifying enzymes to modify oligo- and polysaccharides, such as glycoside hydrolases, glycoside transferases, and isomerases, and other enzymes involved in complex carbohydrate metabolism especially starch, raffinose, and levan. These enzymes represent key indicators of the bacteria’s adaptation to the GIT environment, since they involve the metabolism and assimilation of complex carbohydrates not digested by human enzymes. We also detected key probiotic ligands (surface proteins, excreted or secreted proteins involved in the adhesion to host cells such as adhesion to mucus, epithelial cells or extracellular matrix, and plasma components; also, moonlighting proteins or multifunctional proteins were found that could be involved in adhesion to epithelial cells and/or extracellular matrix proteins and also affect host immunomodulation. In silico analysis of the genome sequence of L. pentosus MP-10 is an important initial step to screen for genes encoding for proteins that may provide probiotic features, and thus provides one new routes for screening and studying this potentially probiotic bacterium.

  12. A relation to predict the failure of materials and potential application to volcanic eruptions and landslides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Shengwang; Liu, Chao; Lu, Chunsheng; Elsworth, Derek

    2016-06-16

    A theoretical explanation of a time-to-failure relation is presented, with this relationship then used to describe the failure of materials. This provides the potential to predict timing (tf - t) immediately before failure by extrapolating the trajectory as it asymptotes to zero with no need to fit unknown exponents as previously proposed in critical power law behaviors. This generalized relation is verified by comparison with approaches to criticality for volcanic eruptions and creep failure. A new relation based on changes with stress is proposed as an alternative expression of Voight's relation, which is widely used to describe the accelerating precursory signals before material failure and broadly applied to volcanic eruptions, landslides and other phenomena. The new generalized relation reduces to Voight's relation if stress is limited to increase at a constant rate with time. This implies that the time-derivatives in Voight's analysis may be a subset of a more general expression connecting stress derivatives, and thus provides a potential method for forecasting these events.

  13. In silico and in vitro prediction of gastrointestinal absorption from potential drug eremantholide C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldeira, Tamires G; Saúde-Guimarães, Dênia A; Dezani, André B; Serra, Cristina Helena Dos Reis; de Souza, Jacqueline

    2017-11-01

    Analysis of the biopharmaceutical properties of eremantholide C, sesquiterpene lactone with proven pharmacological activity and low toxicity, is required to evaluate its potential to become a drug. Preliminary analysis of the physicochemical characteristics of eremantholide C was performed in silico. Equilibrium solubility was evaluated using the shake-flask method, at 37.0 °C, 100 rpm during 72 h in biorelevant media. The permeability was analysed using parallel artificial membrane permeability assay, at 37.0 °C, 50 rpm for 5 h. The donor compartment was composed of an eremantholide C solution in intestinal fluid simulated without enzymes, while the acceptor compartment consisted of phosphate buffer. Physicochemical characteristics predicted in silico indicated that eremantholide C has a low solubility and high permeability. In-vitro data of eremantholide C showed low solubility, with values for the dose/solubility ratio (ml): 9448.82, 10 389.61 e 15 000.00 for buffers acetate (pH 4.5), intestinal fluid simulated without enzymes (pH 6.8) and phosphate (pH 7.4), respectively. Also, it showed high permeability, with effective permeability of 30.4 × 10 -6 cm/s, a higher result compared with propranolol hydrochloride (9.23 × 10 -6 cm/s). The high permeability combined with its solubility, pharmacological activity and low toxicity demonstrate the importance of eremantholide C as a potential drug candidate. © 2017 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

  14. The use of repassivation potential in predicting the performance of high-level nuclear waste container materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sridhar, N.; Dunn, D.; Cragnolino, G.

    1995-01-01

    Localized corrosion in aqueous environments forms an important bounding condition for the performance assessment of high-level waste (HLW) container materials. A predictive methodology using repassivation potential is examined in this paper. It is shown, based on long-term (continuing for over 11 months) testing of alloy 825, that repassivation potential of deep pits or crevices is a conservative and robust parameter for the prediction of localized corrosion. In contrast, initiation potentials measured by short-term tests are non-conservative and highly sensitive to several surface and environmental factors. Corrosion data from various field tests and plant equipment performance are analyzed in terms of the applicability of repassivation potential. The applicability of repassivation potential for predicting the occurrence of stress corrosion cracking (SCC) and intergranular corrosion in chloride containing environments is also examined

  15. Development of a predictive methodology for identifying high radon exhalation potential areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ielsch, G.

    2001-01-01

    Radon 222 is a radioactive natural gas originating from the decay of radium 226 which itself originates from the decay of uranium 23 8 naturally present in rocks and soil. Inhalation of radon gas and its decay products is a potential health risk for man. Radon can accumulate in confined environments such as buildings, and is responsible for one third of the total radiological exposure of the general public to radiation. The problem of how to manage this risk then arises. The main difficulty encountered is due to the large variability of exposure to radon across the country. A prediction needs to be made of areas with the highest density of buildings with high radon levels. Exposure to radon varies depending on the degree of confinement of the habitat, the lifestyle of the occupants and particularly emission of radon from the surface of the soil on which the building is built. The purpose of this thesis is to elaborate a methodology for determining areas presenting a high potential for radon exhalation at the surface of the soil. The methodology adopted is based on quantification of radon exhalation at the surface, starting from a precise characterization of the main local geological and pedological parameters that control the radon source and its transport to the ground/atmosphere interface. The methodology proposed is innovative in that it combines a cartographic analysis, parameters integrated into a Geographic Information system, and a simplified model for vertical transport of radon by diffusion through pores in the soil. This methodology has been validated on two typical areas, in different geological contexts, and gives forecasts that generally agree with field observations. This makes it possible to identify areas with a high exhalation potential within a range of a few square kilometers. (author)

  16. Development of a prediction model for the cost saving potentials in implementing the building energy efficiency rating certification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Jaewook; Hong, Taehoon; Ji, Changyoon; Kim, Jimin; Lee, Minhyun; Jeong, Kwangbok; Koo, Choongwan

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • This study evaluates the building energy efficiency rating (BEER) certification. • Prediction model was developed for cost saving potentials by the BEER certification. • Prediction model was developed using LCC analysis, ROV, and Monte Carlo simulation. • Cost saving potential was predicted to be 2.78–3.77% of the construction cost. • Cost saving potential can be used for estimating the investment value of BEER. - Abstract: Building energy efficiency rating (BEER) certification is an energy performance certificates (EPCs) in South Korea. It is critical to examine the cost saving potentials of the BEER-certification in advance. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for the cost saving potentials in implementing the BEER-certification, in which the cost saving potentials included the energy cost savings of the BEER-certification and the relevant CO_2 emissions reduction as well as the additional construction cost for the BEER-certification. The prediction model was developed by using data mining, life cycle cost analysis, real option valuation, and Monte Carlo simulation. The database were established with 437 multi-family housing complexes (MFHCs), including 116 BEER-certified MFHCs and 321 non-certified MFHCs. The case study was conducted to validate the developed prediction model using 321 non-certified MFHCs, which considered 20-year life cycle. As a result, compared to the additional construction cost, the average cost saving potentials of the 1st-BEER-certified MFHCs in Groups 1, 2, and 3 were predicted to be 3.77%, 2.78%, and 2.87%, respectively. The cost saving potentials can be used as a guideline for the additional construction cost of the BEER-certification in the early design phase.

  17. Random Forests (RFs) for Estimation, Uncertainty Prediction and Interpretation of Monthly Solar Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assouline, Dan; Mohajeri, Nahid; Scartezzini, Jean-Louis

    2017-04-01

    Solar energy is clean, widely available, and arguably the most promising renewable energy resource. Taking full advantage of solar power, however, requires a deep understanding of its patterns and dependencies in space and time. The recent advances in Machine Learning brought powerful algorithms to estimate the spatio-temporal variations of solar irradiance (the power per unit area received from the Sun, W/m2), using local weather and terrain information. Such algorithms include Deep Learning (e.g. Artificial Neural Networks), or kernel methods (e.g. Support Vector Machines). However, most of these methods have some disadvantages, as they: (i) are complex to tune, (ii) are mainly used as a black box and offering no interpretation on the variables contributions, (iii) often do not provide uncertainty predictions (Assouline et al., 2016). To provide a reasonable solar mapping with good accuracy, these gaps would ideally need to be filled. We present here simple steps using one ensemble learning algorithm namely, Random Forests (Breiman, 2001) to (i) estimate monthly solar potential with good accuracy, (ii) provide information on the contribution of each feature in the estimation, and (iii) offer prediction intervals for each point estimate. We have selected Switzerland as an example. Using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) along with monthly solar irradiance time series and weather data, we build monthly solar maps for Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), and Extraterrestrial Irradiance (EI). The weather data include monthly values for temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, and cloud cover. In order to explain the impact of each feature on the solar irradiance of each point estimate, we extend the contribution method (Kuz'min et al., 2011) to a regression setting. Contribution maps for all features can then be computed for each solar map. This provides precious information on the spatial variation of the features impact all

  18. Can bispectral index or auditory evoked potential index predict implicit memory during propofol-induced sedation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yun; Yue, Yun; Sun, Yong-hai; Wu, An-shi

    2006-06-05

    Some patients still suffer from implicit memory of intraoperative events under adequate depth of anaesthesia. The elimination of implicit memory should be a necessary aim of clinical general anaesthesia. However, implicit memory cannot be tested during anaesthesia yet. We propose bispectral index (BIS) and auditory evoked potential index (AEPI), as predictors of implicit memory during anaesthesia. Thirty-six patients were equally divided into 3 groups according to the Observer's Assessment of Alertness/Sedation Score: A, level 3; B, level 2; and C, level 1. Every patient was given the first auditory stimulus before sedation. Then every patient received the second auditory stimulus after the target level of sedation had been reached. BIS and AEPI were monitored before and after the second auditory stimulus presentation. Four hours later, the inclusion test and exclusion test were performed on the ward using process dissociation procedure and the scores of implicit memory estimated. In groups A and B but not C, implicit memory estimates were statistically greater than zero (P memory scores in group A did not differ significantly from those in group B (P > 0.05). Implicit memory scores correlated with BIS and AEPI (P AEPI. The 95% cutoff points of BIS and AEPI for predicting implicit memory are 47 and 28, respectively. Implicit memory does not disappear until the depth of sedation increases to level 1 of OAA/S score. Implicit memory scores correlate well with BIS and AEPI during sedation. BIS is a better index for predicting implicit memory than AEPI during propofol induced sedation.

  19. The Prediction Methods for Potential Suspended Solids Clogging Types during Managed Aquifer Recharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinqiang Du

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The implementation and development of managed aquifer recharge (MAR have been limited by the clogging attributed to physical, chemical, and biological reactions. In application field of MAR, physical clogging is usually the dominant type. Although numerous studies on the physical clogging mechanism during MAR are available, studies on the more detailed suspended clogging types and its prediction methods still remain few. In this study, a series of column experiments were inducted to show the process of suspended solids clogging process. The suspended solids clogging was divided into three types of surface clogging, inner clogging and mixed clogging based on the different clogging characteristics. Surface clogging indicates that the suspended solids are intercepted by the medium surface when suspended solids grain diameter is larger than pore diameter of infiltration medium. Inner clogging indicates that the suspended solids particles could transport through the infiltration medium. Mixed clogging refers to the comprehensive performance of surface clogging and inner clogging. Each suspended solids clogging type has the different clogging position, different changing laws of hydraulic conductivity and different deposition profile of suspended solids. Based on the experiment data, the ratio of effective medium pore diameter (Dp and median grain size of suspended solids (d50 was proposed as the judgment index for suspended solids clogging types. Surface clogging occurred while Dp/d50 was less than 5.5, inner clogging occurred while Dp/d50 was greater than 180, and mixed clogging occurred while Dp/d50 was between 5.5 and 180. In order to improve the judgment accuracy and applicability, Bayesian method, which considered more ratios of medium pore diameter (Dp and different level of grain diameter of suspended solids (di, were developed to predict the potential suspended solids types.

  20. REDOX AND REDUCTION POTENTIALS AS PARAMETERS TO PREDICT THE DEGRADATION PATHWAY OF CHLORINATED BENZENES IN ANAEROBIC ENVIRONMENTS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DOLFING, J; HARRISON, BK

    1993-01-01

    The anaerobic degradation pathway of hexachlorobenzene starts with a series of reductive dehalogenation steps. In the present paper it was evaluated whether the dehalogenation pathway observed in microbial ecosystems could be predicted by the redox potential and/or the reduction potential (the

  1. Low-energy neutron-proton analyzing power and the new Bonn potential and Paris potential predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tornow, W.; Howell, C.R.; Roberts, M.L.; Felsher, P.D.; Chen, Z.M.; Walter, R.L.; Mertens, G.; Slaus, I.

    1988-01-01

    Instrumental asymmetries recently observed by Haeberli and co-workers, limit the accuracy of neutron-proton analyzing power A/sub y/(θ) data. These instrumental effects are discussed and calculated for previously published n-p A/sub y/(θ) data at 16.9 MeV. To enable these calculations, the analyzing power for the 2 H(d-arrow-right,n) 3 He reaction was measured at small angles. Additional n-p A/sub y/(θ) data at extreme backward angles, obtained via proton recoil detection, are also reported for this energy in this paper. The composite data set is compared to calculations based on the new Bonn NN potential, the Paris NN potential, and to the recent NN phase-shift solution of Arndt. In addition, a detailed comparison between A/sub y/(θ) calculated from the new Bonn and the Paris potentials between 10 and 50 MeV is shown to reveal unexpectedly large relative differences. The experimental data in this energy range are better described by the Paris potential than by the new Bonn potential

  2. Prediction of Liquefaction Potential of Dredge Fill Sand by DCP and Dynamic Probing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alam, Md. Jahangir; Azad, Abul Kalam; Rahman, Ziaur

    2008-01-01

    From many research it is proved that liquefaction potential of sand is function of mainly relative density and confining pressure. During routine site investigations, high-quality sampling and laboratory testing of sands are not feasible because of inevitable sample disturbance effects and budgetary constraints. On the other hand quality control of sand fill can be done by determining in situ density of sand in layer by layer which is expensive and time consuming. In this paper TRL DCP (Transportation Research Laboratory Dynamic Cone Penetration) and DPL (Dynamic Probing Light) are calibrated to predict the relative density of sand deposit. For this purpose sand of known relative density is prepared in a calibration chamber which is a mild steel cylinder with diameter 0.5 m and height 1.0 m. Relative density of sand is varied by controlling height of fall and diameter of hole of sand discharge bowl. After filling, every time DPL and DCP tests are performed and for every blow the penetration of cone is recorded. N10 is then calculated from penetration records. Thus a database is compiled where N10 and relative densities are known. A correlation is made between N 10 and relative density for two types of sand. A good correlation of N 10 and relative density is found

  3. Predictive potential of pre-operative functional neuroimaging in patients treated with subthalamic stimulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sestini, Stelvio; Castagnoli, Antonio; Pupi, Alberto; Sciagra, Roberto; Ammannati, Franco; Ramat, Silvia; Sorbi, Sandro; Mansi, Luigi

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive potential of pre-operative regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) in the pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA) and clinical factors in Parkinson's disease (PD) patients treated with subthalamic nucleus (STN) stimulation. Ten patients underwent rCBF SPECT and motor Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) pre- and post-operatively during stimulation at 5 and 42 months. Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) was used to extract rCBF values in the pre-SMA because it is related with motor improvement. Post-operative outcomes included motor response to stimulation and percent improvement in UPDRS. Pre-operative predictors were explored by correlation test, linear regression and multivariate analyses. Higher pre-operative rCBF in the pre-SMA and younger age were associated with favourable outcomes at 5 and 42 months. Pre-operative rCBF results were significantly associated with baseline clinical factors. This study shows that PD patients with younger age have higher rCBF values in the pre-SMA and better outcome, thus giving the rationale to the hypothesis that STN stimulation could be considered early in the course of disease. (orig.)

  4. Event-related potentials during word mapping to object shape predict toddlers’ vocabulary size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina eBorgström

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available What role does attention to different object properties play in early vocabulary development? This longitudinal study using event-related potentials in combination with behavioral measures investigated 20- and 24-month-olds’ (n = 38; n = 34; overlapping n = 24 ability to use object shape and object part information in word-object mapping. The N400 component was used to measure semantic priming by images containing shape or detail information. At 20 months, the N400 to words primed by object shape varied in topography and amplitude depending on vocabulary size, and these differences predicted productive vocabulary size at 24 months. At 24 months, when most of the children had vocabularies of several hundred words, the relation between vocabulary size and the N400 effect in a shape context was weaker. Detached object parts did not function as word primes regardless of age or vocabulary size, although the part-objects were identified behaviorally. The behavioral measure, however, also showed relatively poor recognition of the part-objects compared to the shape-objects. These three findings provide new support for the link between shape recognition and early vocabulary development.

  5. Predictive potential of pre-operative functional neuroimaging in patients treated with subthalamic stimulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sestini, Stelvio; Castagnoli, Antonio [Ospedale Misericordia e Dolce, Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Nuclear Medicine Unit, Prato (Italy); Pupi, Alberto; Sciagra, Roberto [University of Florence, Department of Clinical Physiopathology, Nuclear Medicine Unit, Florence (Italy); Ammannati, Franco; Ramat, Silvia; Sorbi, Sandro [University of Florence, Department of Neurological and Psychiatric Sciences, Florence (Italy); Mansi, Luigi [University II Naples, Department of Diagnostic Imaging, Nuclear Medicine Unit, Naples (Italy)

    2010-01-15

    The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive potential of pre-operative regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) in the pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA) and clinical factors in Parkinson's disease (PD) patients treated with subthalamic nucleus (STN) stimulation. Ten patients underwent rCBF SPECT and motor Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) pre- and post-operatively during stimulation at 5 and 42 months. Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) was used to extract rCBF values in the pre-SMA because it is related with motor improvement. Post-operative outcomes included motor response to stimulation and percent improvement in UPDRS. Pre-operative predictors were explored by correlation test, linear regression and multivariate analyses. Higher pre-operative rCBF in the pre-SMA and younger age were associated with favourable outcomes at 5 and 42 months. Pre-operative rCBF results were significantly associated with baseline clinical factors. This study shows that PD patients with younger age have higher rCBF values in the pre-SMA and better outcome, thus giving the rationale to the hypothesis that STN stimulation could be considered early in the course of disease. (orig.)

  6. Predicting potentially toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in the Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Clarissa R.; Sapiano, Mathew R. P.; Prasad, M. Bala Krishna; Long, Wen; Tango, Peter J.; Brown, Christopher W.; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2010-11-01

    Harmful algal blooms are now recognized as a significant threat to the Chesapeake Bay as they can severely compromise the economic viability of important recreational and commercial fisheries in the largest estuary of the United States. This study describes the development of empirical models for the potentially domoic acid-producing Pseudo-nitzschia species complex present in the Bay, developed from a 22-year time series of cell abundance and concurrent measurements of hydrographic and chemical properties. Using a logistic Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach, model parameters and performance were compared over a range of Pseudo-nitzschia bloom thresholds relevant to toxin production by different species. Small-threshold blooms (≥10 cells mL -1) are explained by time of year, location, and variability in surface values of phosphate, temperature, nitrate plus nitrite, and freshwater discharge. Medium- (100 cells mL -1) to large- threshold (1000 cells mL -1) blooms are further explained by salinity, silicic acid, dissolved organic carbon, and light attenuation (Secchi) depth. These predictors are similar to other models for Pseudo-nitzschia blooms on the west coast, suggesting commonalities across ecosystems. Hindcasts of bloom probabilities at a 19% bloom prediction point yield a Heidke Skill Score of ~53%, a Probability of Detection ˜ 75%, a False Alarm Ratio of ˜ 52%, and a Probability of False Detection ˜9%. The implication of possible future changes in Baywide nutrient stoichiometry on Pseudo-nitzschia blooms is discussed.

  7. Differential RISC association of endogenous human microRNAs predicts their inhibitory potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, Omar; Kennedy, Edward M; Skalsky, Rebecca L; Cullen, Bryan R

    2014-04-01

    It has previously been assumed that the generally high stability of microRNAs (miRNAs) reflects their tight association with Argonaute (Ago) proteins, essential components of the RNA-induced silencing complex (RISC). However, recent data have suggested that the majority of mature miRNAs are not, in fact, Ago associated. Here, we demonstrate that endogenous human miRNAs vary widely, by >100-fold, in their level of RISC association and show that the level of Ago binding is a better indicator of inhibitory potential than is the total level of miRNA expression. While miRNAs of closely similar sequence showed comparable levels of RISC association in the same cell line, these varied between different cell types. Moreover, the level of RISC association could be modulated by overexpression of complementary target mRNAs. Together, these data indicate that the level of RISC association of a given endogenous miRNA is regulated by the available RNA targetome and predicts miRNA function.

  8. Prediction for potential landslide zones using seismic amplitude in Liwan gas field, northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xishuang; Liu, Baohua; Liu, Lejun; Zheng, Jiewen; Zhou, Songwang; Zhou, Qingjie

    2017-12-01

    The Liwan (Lw) gas field located in the northern slope of the South China Sea (SCS) is extremely complex for its sea-floor topograghy, which is a huge challenge for the safety of subsea facilities. It is economically impractical to obtain parameters for risk assessment of slope stability through a large amount of sampling over the whole field. The linkage between soil shear strength and seabed peak amplitude derived from 2D/3D seismic data is helpful for understanding the regional slope-instability risk. In this paper, the relationships among seabed peak, acoustic impedance and shear strength of shallow soil in the study area were discussed based on statistical analysis results. We obtained a similar relationship to that obtained in other deep-water areas. There is a positive correlation between seabed peak amplitude and acoustic impedance and an exponential relationship between acoustic impedance and shear strength of sediment. The acoustic impedance is the key factor linking the seismic amplitude and shear strength. Infinite slope stability analysis results indicate the areas have a high potential of shallow landslide on slopes exceeding 15° when the thickness of loose sediments exceeds 8 m in the Lw gas field. Our prediction shows that they are mainly located in the heads and walls of submarine canyons.

  9. Predicting Seawater Intrusion in Coastal Groundwater Boreholes Using Self-Potential Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, M.; MacAllister, D. J.; Jackson, M.; Vinogradov, J.; Butler, A. P.

    2017-12-01

    Many coastal groundwater abstraction wells are under threat from seawater intrusion: this is exacerbated in summer by low water tables and increased abstraction. Existing hydrochemistry or geophysical techniques often fail to predict the timing of intrusion events. We investigate whether the presence and transport of seawater can influence self-potentials (SPs) measured within groundwater boreholes, with the aim of using SP monitoring to provide early warning of saline intrusion. SP data collection: SP data were collected from a coastal groundwater borehole and an inland borehole (> 60 km from the coast) in the Seaford Chalk of southern England. The SP gradient in the inland borehole was approximately 0.05 mV/m, while that in the coastal borehole varied from 0.16-0.26 mV/m throughout the monitoring period. Spectral analysis showed that semi-diurnal fluctuations in the SP gradient were several orders of magnitude higher at the coast than inland, indicating a strong influence from oceanic tides. A characteristic decrease in the gradient, or precursor, was observed in the coastal borehole several days prior to seawater intrusion. Modelling results: Hydrodynamic transport and geoelectric modelling suggest that observed pressure changes (associated with the streaming potential) are insufficient to explain either the magnitude of the coastal SP gradient or the semi-diurnal SP fluctuations. By contrast, a model of the exclusion-diffusion potential closely matches these observations and produces a precursor similar to that observed in the field. Sensitivity analysis suggests that both a sharp saline front and spatial variations in the exclusion efficiency arising from aquifer heterogeneities are necessary to explain the SP gradient observed in the coastal borehole. The presence of the precursor in the model depends also on the presence and depth of fractures near the base of the borehole. Conclusions: Our results indicate that SP monitoring, combined with hydrodynamic

  10. A rat retinal damage model predicts for potential clinical visual disturbances induced by Hsp90 inhibitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Dan; Liu, Yuan; Ye, Josephine; Ying, Weiwen; Ogawa, Luisa Shin; Inoue, Takayo; Tatsuta, Noriaki; Wada, Yumiko; Koya, Keizo; Huang, Qin; Bates, Richard C.; Sonderfan, Andrew J.

    2013-01-01

    In human trials certain heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) inhibitors, including 17-DMAG and NVP-AUY922, have caused visual disorders indicative of retinal dysfunction; others such as 17-AAG and ganetespib have not. To understand these safety profile differences we evaluated histopathological changes and exposure profiles of four Hsp90 inhibitors, with or without clinical reports of adverse ocular effects, using a rat retinal model. Retinal morphology, Hsp70 expression (a surrogate marker of Hsp90 inhibition), apoptotic induction and pharmacokinetic drug exposure analysis were examined in rats treated with the ansamycins 17-DMAG and 17-AAG, or with the second-generation compounds NVP-AUY922 and ganetespib. Both 17-DMAG and NVP-AUY922 induced strong yet restricted retinal Hsp70 up-regulation and promoted marked photoreceptor cell death 24 h after the final dose. In contrast, neither 17-AAG nor ganetespib elicited photoreceptor injury. When the relationship between drug distribution and photoreceptor degeneration was examined, 17-DMAG and NVP-AUY922 showed substantial retinal accumulation, with high retina/plasma (R/P) ratios and slow elimination rates, such that 51% of 17-DMAG and 65% of NVP-AUY922 present at 30 min post-injection were retained in the retina 6 h post-dose. For 17-AAG and ganetespib, retinal elimination was rapid (90% and 70% of drugs eliminated from the retina at 6 h, respectively) which correlated with lower R/P ratios. These findings indicate that prolonged inhibition of Hsp90 activity in the eye results in photoreceptor cell death. Moreover, the results suggest that the retina/plasma exposure ratio and retinal elimination rate profiles of Hsp90 inhibitors, irrespective of their chemical class, may predict for ocular toxicity potential. - Highlights: • In human trials some Hsp90 inhibitors cause visual disorders, others do not. • Prolonged inhibition of Hsp90 in the rat eye results in photoreceptor cell death. • Retina/plasma ratio and retinal

  11. Chromatin Phenotype Karyometry Can Predict Recurrence in Papillary Urothelial Neoplasms of Low Malignant Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodolfo Montironi

    2007-01-01

    chromatin organization state between non-recurrent and recurrent PUNLMP, thus allowing a very stable method of predicting recurrence of papillary urothelial neoplasms of low malignant potential by karyometry.

  12. A grand canonical genetic algorithm for the prediction of multi-component phase diagrams and testing of empirical potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tipton, William W; Hennig, Richard G

    2013-01-01

    We present an evolutionary algorithm which predicts stable atomic structures and phase diagrams by searching the energy landscape of empirical and ab initio Hamiltonians. Composition and geometrical degrees of freedom may be varied simultaneously. We show that this method utilizes information from favorable local structure at one composition to predict that at others, achieving far greater efficiency of phase diagram prediction than a method which relies on sampling compositions individually. We detail this and a number of other efficiency-improving techniques implemented in the genetic algorithm for structure prediction code that is now publicly available. We test the efficiency of the software by searching the ternary Zr–Cu–Al system using an empirical embedded-atom model potential. In addition to testing the algorithm, we also evaluate the accuracy of the potential itself. We find that the potential stabilizes several correct ternary phases, while a few of the predicted ground states are unphysical. Our results suggest that genetic algorithm searches can be used to improve the methodology of empirical potential design. (paper)

  13. A grand canonical genetic algorithm for the prediction of multi-component phase diagrams and testing of empirical potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tipton, William W; Hennig, Richard G

    2013-12-11

    We present an evolutionary algorithm which predicts stable atomic structures and phase diagrams by searching the energy landscape of empirical and ab initio Hamiltonians. Composition and geometrical degrees of freedom may be varied simultaneously. We show that this method utilizes information from favorable local structure at one composition to predict that at others, achieving far greater efficiency of phase diagram prediction than a method which relies on sampling compositions individually. We detail this and a number of other efficiency-improving techniques implemented in the genetic algorithm for structure prediction code that is now publicly available. We test the efficiency of the software by searching the ternary Zr-Cu-Al system using an empirical embedded-atom model potential. In addition to testing the algorithm, we also evaluate the accuracy of the potential itself. We find that the potential stabilizes several correct ternary phases, while a few of the predicted ground states are unphysical. Our results suggest that genetic algorithm searches can be used to improve the methodology of empirical potential design.

  14. Prospects and Potential Uses of Genomic Prediction of Key Performance Traits in Tetraploid Potato

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Stich

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Genomic prediction is a routine tool in breeding programs of most major animal and plant species. However, its usefulness for potato breeding has not yet been evaluated in detail. The objectives of this study were to (i examine the prospects of genomic prediction of key performance traits in a diversity panel of tetraploid potato modeling additive, dominance, and epistatic effects, (ii investigate the effects of size and make up of training set, number of test environments and molecular markers on prediction accuracy, and (iii assess the effect of including markers from candidate genes on the prediction accuracy. With genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP, BayesA, BayesCπ, and Bayesian LASSO, four different prediction methods were used for genomic prediction of relative area under disease progress curve after a Phytophthora infestans infection, plant maturity, maturity corrected resistance, tuber starch content, tuber starch yield (TSY, and tuber yield (TY of 184 tetraploid potato clones or subsets thereof genotyped with the SolCAP 8.3k SNP array. The cross-validated prediction accuracies with GBLUP and the three Bayesian approaches for the six evaluated traits ranged from about 0.5 to about 0.8. For traits with a high expected genetic complexity, such as TSY and TY, we observed an 8% higher prediction accuracy using a model with additive and dominance effects compared with a model with additive effects only. Our results suggest that for oligogenic traits in general and when diagnostic markers are available in particular, the use of Bayesian methods for genomic prediction is highly recommended and that the diagnostic markers should be modeled as fixed effects. The evaluation of the relative performance of genomic prediction vs. phenotypic selection indicated that the former is superior, assuming cycle lengths and selection intensities that are possible to realize in commercial potato breeding programs.

  15. The potential of large studies for building genetic risk prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    NCI scientists have developed a new paradigm to assess hereditary risk prediction in common diseases, such as prostate cancer. This genetic risk prediction concept is based on polygenic analysis—the study of a group of common DNA sequences, known as singl

  16. Predicting outcome from coma : man-in-the-barrel syndrome as potential pitfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elting, JW; Haaxma, R; De Keyser, J; Sulter, G.

    The Glasgow coma scale motor score is often used in predicting outcome after hypoxic ischemic coma. Judicious care should be exerted when using this variable in predicting outcome in patients with coma following hypotension since borderzone infarction can obscure the clinical picture. We describe a

  17. External validation of prediction models for time to death in potential donors after circulatory death

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kotsopoulos, A.M.M.; Böing-Messing, F.; Jansen, N.E.; Vos, P.; Abdo, W.F.

    2018-01-01

    Predicting time to death in controlled donation after circulatory death (cDCD) donors following withdrawal of life‐sustaining treatment (WLST) is important but poses a major challenge. The aim of this study is to determine factors predicting time to circulatory death within 60 minutes after WSLT and

  18. Nucleon-nucleon interaction with quark exchange and prediction of the color van der Waals potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osman, A.

    1988-01-01

    The nucleon-nucleon interaction is considered by including the color nucleon clusters. The nucleon-nucleon system is treated as a six-quark system. The obtained local potentials reduce the short-range repulsion. The resulting nucleon-nucleon potential, using a quark-quark potential, agress well with the central-force potentials. The phase shifts calculated by using these local potentials are in good agreement with those obtained from other methods. Introducing the quark-quark potential in the nucleon-nucleon interaction leads to a color van der Waals potential much stronger than that implied by experiments

  19. Operational Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office and potential ways forward for operational space weather prediction systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, David

    -wind, magnetosphere and ionosphere. The three simulations are directly or indirectly connected each other based on real-time observa-tion data to reproduce a virtual geo-space region on the super-computer. Informatics is a new methodology to make precise forecast of space weather. Based on new information and communication technologies (ICT), it provides more information in both quality and quantity. At NICT, we have been developing a cloud-computing system named "space weather cloud" based on a high-speed network system (JGN2+). Huge-scale distributed storage (1PB), clus-ter computers, visualization systems and other resources are expected to derive new findings and services of space weather forecasting. The final goal of NICT space weather service is to predict near-future space weather conditions and disturbances which will be causes of satellite malfunctions, tele-communication problems, and error of GPS navigations. In the present talk, we introduce our recent activities on the space weather services and discuss how we are going to develop the services from the view points of space science and practical uses.

  20. TargetNet: a web service for predicting potential drug-target interaction profiling via multi-target SAR models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhi-Jiang; Dong, Jie; Che, Yu-Jing; Zhu, Min-Feng; Wen, Ming; Wang, Ning-Ning; Wang, Shan; Lu, Ai-Ping; Cao, Dong-Sheng

    2016-05-01

    Drug-target interactions (DTIs) are central to current drug discovery processes and public health fields. Analyzing the DTI profiling of the drugs helps to infer drug indications, adverse drug reactions, drug-drug interactions, and drug mode of actions. Therefore, it is of high importance to reliably and fast predict DTI profiling of the drugs on a genome-scale level. Here, we develop the TargetNet server, which can make real-time DTI predictions based only on molecular structures, following the spirit of multi-target SAR methodology. Naïve Bayes models together with various molecular fingerprints were employed to construct prediction models. Ensemble learning from these fingerprints was also provided to improve the prediction ability. When the user submits a molecule, the server will predict the activity of the user's molecule across 623 human proteins by the established high quality SAR model, thus generating a DTI profiling that can be used as a feature vector of chemicals for wide applications. The 623 SAR models related to 623 human proteins were strictly evaluated and validated by several model validation strategies, resulting in the AUC scores of 75-100 %. We applied the generated DTI profiling to successfully predict potential targets, toxicity classification, drug-drug interactions, and drug mode of action, which sufficiently demonstrated the wide application value of the potential DTI profiling. The TargetNet webserver is designed based on the Django framework in Python, and is freely accessible at http://targetnet.scbdd.com .

  1. TargetNet: a web service for predicting potential drug-target interaction profiling via multi-target SAR models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Zhi-Jiang; Dong, Jie; Che, Yu-Jing; Zhu, Min-Feng; Wen, Ming; Wang, Ning-Ning; Wang, Shan; Lu, Ai-Ping; Cao, Dong-Sheng

    2016-05-01

    Drug-target interactions (DTIs) are central to current drug discovery processes and public health fields. Analyzing the DTI profiling of the drugs helps to infer drug indications, adverse drug reactions, drug-drug interactions, and drug mode of actions. Therefore, it is of high importance to reliably and fast predict DTI profiling of the drugs on a genome-scale level. Here, we develop the TargetNet server, which can make real-time DTI predictions based only on molecular structures, following the spirit of multi-target SAR methodology. Naïve Bayes models together with various molecular fingerprints were employed to construct prediction models. Ensemble learning from these fingerprints was also provided to improve the prediction ability. When the user submits a molecule, the server will predict the activity of the user's molecule across 623 human proteins by the established high quality SAR model, thus generating a DTI profiling that can be used as a feature vector of chemicals for wide applications. The 623 SAR models related to 623 human proteins were strictly evaluated and validated by several model validation strategies, resulting in the AUC scores of 75-100 %. We applied the generated DTI profiling to successfully predict potential targets, toxicity classification, drug-drug interactions, and drug mode of action, which sufficiently demonstrated the wide application value of the potential DTI profiling. The TargetNet webserver is designed based on the Django framework in Python, and is freely accessible at http://targetnet.scbdd.com.

  2. Inflationary predictions of double-well, Coleman-Weinberg, and hilltop potentials with non-minimal coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostan, Nilay; Güleryüz, Ömer; Nefer Şenoğuz, Vedat

    2018-05-01

    We discuss how the non-minimal coupling ξphi2R between the inflaton and the Ricci scalar affects the predictions of single field inflation models where the inflaton has a non-zero vacuum expectation value (VEV) v after inflation. We show that, for inflaton values both above the VEV and below the VEV during inflation, under certain conditions the inflationary predictions become approximately the same as the predictions of the Starobinsky model. We then analyze inflation with double-well and Coleman-Weinberg potentials in detail, displaying the regions in the v-ξ plane for which the spectral index ns and the tensor-to-scalar ratio r values are compatible with the current observations. r is always larger than 0.002 in these regions. Finally, we consider the effect of ξ on small field inflation (hilltop) potentials.

  3. Predictive value of neurological examination for early cortical responses to somatosensory evoked potentials in patients with postanoxic coma

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwes, Aline; Binnekade, Jan M.; Verbaan, Bart W.; Zandbergen, Eveline G. J.; Koelman, Johannes H. T. M.; Weinstein, Henry C.; Hijdra, Albert; Horn, Janneke

    2012-01-01

    Bilateral absence of cortical N20 responses of median nerve somatosensory evoked potentials (SEP) predicts poor neurological outcome in postanoxic coma after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Although SEP is easy to perform and available in most hospitals, it is worthwhile to know how

  4. Human Pluripotent Stem Cell-Based Assay Predicts Developmental Toxicity Potential of ToxCast Chemicals (ACT meeting)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worldwide initiatives to screen for toxicity potential among the thousands of chemicals currently in use require inexpensive and high-throughput in vitro models to meet their goals. The devTOX quickPredict platform is an in vitro human pluripotent stem cell-based assay used to as...

  5. Seasonal forecasting of synoptic type variability: potential intraseasonal predictability relevant to the Cape south coast of South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, CJ

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available An ensemble of 12 sea-level pressure (SLP) simulations from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) Global Seasonal Forecast System 5 (GloSea5) is used to investigate the potential predictability of synoptic types within 14 austral spring...

  6. 20170921 - An evaluation of selected (Q)SARs/expert systems for the Prediction of Skin Sensitization Potential (ASCCT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predictive testing to characterize substances for their skin sensitization potential has historically been based on animal models such as the Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) and the Guinea Pig Maximization Test (GPMT). In recent years, EU regulations have provided a strong incentiv...

  7. Predicting Potential Changes in Suitable Habitat and Distribution by 2100 for Tree Species of the Eastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Mark W. Schwartz; Mark W. Schwartz

    2005-01-01

    We predict current distribution and abundance for tree species present in eastern North America, and subsequently estimate potential suitable habitat for those species under a changed climate with 2 x CO2. We used a series of statistical models (i.e., Regression Tree Analysis (RTA), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Bagging Trees (...

  8. Predictive Eco-Cruise Control (ECC) system : model development, modeling and potential benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    The research develops a reference model of a predictive eco-cruise control (ECC) system that intelligently modulates vehicle speed within a pre-set speed range to minimize vehicle fuel consumption levels using roadway topographic information. The stu...

  9. Prediction potential of candidate biomarker sets identified and validated on gene expression data from multiple datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karacali Bilge

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Independently derived expression profiles of the same biological condition often have few genes in common. In this study, we created populations of expression profiles from publicly available microarray datasets of cancer (breast, lymphoma and renal samples linked to clinical information with an iterative machine learning algorithm. ROC curves were used to assess the prediction error of each profile for classification. We compared the prediction error of profiles correlated with molecular phenotype against profiles correlated with relapse-free status. Prediction error of profiles identified with supervised univariate feature selection algorithms were compared to profiles selected randomly from a all genes on the microarray platform and b a list of known disease-related genes (a priori selection. We also determined the relevance of expression profiles on test arrays from independent datasets, measured on either the same or different microarray platforms. Results Highly discriminative expression profiles were produced on both simulated gene expression data and expression data from breast cancer and lymphoma datasets on the basis of ER and BCL-6 expression, respectively. Use of relapse-free status to identify profiles for prognosis prediction resulted in poorly discriminative decision rules. Supervised feature selection resulted in more accurate classifications than random or a priori selection, however, the difference in prediction error decreased as the number of features increased. These results held when decision rules were applied across-datasets to samples profiled on the same microarray platform. Conclusion Our results show that many gene sets predict molecular phenotypes accurately. Given this, expression profiles identified using different training datasets should be expected to show little agreement. In addition, we demonstrate the difficulty in predicting relapse directly from microarray data using supervised machine

  10. Label-free morphology-based prediction of multiple differentiation potentials of human mesenchymal stem cells for early evaluation of intact cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroto Sasaki

    Full Text Available Precise quantification of cellular potential of stem cells, such as human bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (hBMSCs, is important for achieving stable and effective outcomes in clinical stem cell therapy. Here, we report a method for image-based prediction of the multiple differentiation potentials of hBMSCs. This method has four major advantages: (1 the cells used for potential prediction are fully intact, and therefore directly usable for clinical applications; (2 predictions of potentials are generated before differentiation cultures are initiated; (3 prediction of multiple potentials can be provided simultaneously for each sample; and (4 predictions of potentials yield quantitative values that correlate strongly with the experimental data. Our results show that the collapse of hBMSC differentiation potentials, triggered by in vitro expansion, can be quantitatively predicted far in advance by predicting multiple potentials, multi-lineage differentiation potentials (osteogenic, adipogenic, and chondrogenic and population doubling potential using morphological features apparent during the first 4 days of expansion culture. In order to understand how such morphological features can be effective for advance predictions, we measured gene-expression profiles of the same early undifferentiated cells. Both senescence-related genes (p16 and p21 and cytoskeleton-related genes (PTK2, CD146, and CD49 already correlated to the decrease of potentials at this stage. To objectively compare the performance of morphology and gene expression for such early prediction, we tested a range of models using various combinations of features. Such comparison of predictive performances revealed that morphological features performed better overall than gene-expression profiles, balancing the predictive accuracy with the effort required for model construction. This benchmark list of various prediction models not only identifies the best morphological feature

  11. Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

    2015-02-05

    Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

  12. Computer models versus reality: how well do in silico models currently predict the sensitization potential of a substance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teubner, Wera; Mehling, Anette; Schuster, Paul Xaver; Guth, Katharina; Worth, Andrew; Burton, Julien; van Ravenzwaay, Bennard; Landsiedel, Robert

    2013-12-01

    National legislations for the assessment of the skin sensitization potential of chemicals are increasingly based on the globally harmonized system (GHS). In this study, experimental data on 55 non-sensitizing and 45 sensitizing chemicals were evaluated according to GHS criteria and used to test the performance of computer (in silico) models for the prediction of skin sensitization. Statistic models (Vega, Case Ultra, TOPKAT), mechanistic models (Toxtree, OECD (Q)SAR toolbox, DEREK) or a hybrid model (TIMES-SS) were evaluated. Between three and nine of the substances evaluated were found in the individual training sets of various models. Mechanism based models performed better than statistical models and gave better predictivities depending on the stringency of the domain definition. Best performance was achieved by TIMES-SS, with a perfect prediction, whereby only 16% of the substances were within its reliability domain. Some models offer modules for potency; however predictions did not correlate well with the GHS sensitization subcategory derived from the experimental data. In conclusion, although mechanistic models can be used to a certain degree under well-defined conditions, at the present, the in silico models are not sufficiently accurate for broad application to predict skin sensitization potentials. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Rapid biochemical methane potential prediction of urban organic waste with near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitamo, Temesgen Mathewos; Triolo, Jin Mi; Boldrin, Alessio

    2017-01-01

    . The aim of the present study is to develop a fast and reliable model based on near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) for the BMP prediction of urban organic waste (UOW). The model comprised 87 UOW samples. Additionally, 88 plant biomass samples were included, to develop a combined model predicting...... BMP. The coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error in prediction (RMSEP) of the UOW model were 0.88 and 44 mL CH4/g VS, while the combined model was 0.89 and 50 mL CH4/g VS. Improved model performance was obtained for the two individual models compared to the combined version...

  14. Potentials of mean force for protein structure prediction vindicated, formalized and generalized

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamelryck, Thomas; Borg, Mikael; Paluszewski, Martin

    2010-01-01

    and the simulation of protein folding. However, the validity, scope and limitations of these potentials are still vigorously debated and disputed, and the optimal choice of the reference state--a necessary component of these potentials--is an unsolved problem. PMFs are loosely justified by analogy to the reversible...

  15. AP® Potential Predicted by PSAT/NMSQT® Scores Using Logistic Regression. Statistical Report 2014-1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiuyuan; Patel, Priyank; Ewing, Maureen

    2014-01-01

    AP Potential™ is an educational guidance tool that uses PSAT/NMSQT® scores to identify students who have the potential to do well on one or more Advanced Placement® (AP®) Exams. Students identified as having AP potential, perhaps students who would not have been otherwise identified, should consider enrolling in the corresponding AP course if they…

  16. The Potential Effect of Oral Microbiota in the Prediction of Mucositis During Radiotherapy for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Xia Zhu

    2017-04-01

    Interpretation: Oral microbiota changes correlate with the progression and aggravation of radiotherapy-induced mucositis in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Microbiota-based strategies can be used for the early prediction and prevention of the incidence of severe mucositis during radiotherapy.

  17. Predicting the potential establishment of two insect species using the simulation environment INSIM (INsect SIMulation)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hemerik, Lia; Nes, van Egbert H.

    2016-01-01

    Degree-day models have long been used to predict events in the life cycle of insects and therewith the timing of outbreaks of insect pests and their natural enemies. This approach assumes, however, that the effect of temperature is linear, whereas developmental rates of insects are non-linearly

  18. Toward accurate prediction of potential energy surfaces and the spectral density of hydrogen bonded systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rekik, Najeh

    2014-01-01

    Despite the considerable progress made in quantum theory and computational methods, detailed descriptions of the potential energy surfaces of hydrogen-bonded systems have not yet been achieved. In addition, the hydrogen bond (H-bond) itself is still so poorly understood at the fundamental level that it remains unclear exactly what geometry constitutes a “real” H-bond. Therefore, in order to investigate features essential for hydrogen bonded complexes, a simple, efficient, and general method for calculating matrix elements of vibrational operators capable of describing the stretching modes and the H-bond bridges of hydrogen-bonded systems is proposed. The derived matrix elements are simple and computationally easy to evaluate, which makes the method suitable for vibrational studies of multiple-well potentials. The method is illustrated by obtaining potential energy surfaces for a number of two-dimensional systems with repulsive potentials chosen to be in Gaussian form for the stretching mode and of the Morse-type for the H-bond bridge dynamics. The forms of potential energy surfaces of weak and strong hydrogen bonds are analyzed by varying the asymmetry of the Gaussian potential. Moreover, the choice and applicability of the selected potential for the stretching mode and comparison with other potentials used in the area of hydrogen bond research are discussed. The approach for the determination of spectral density has been constructed in the framework of the linear response theory for which spectral density is obtained by Fourier transform of the autocorrelation function of the dipole moment operator of the fast mode. The approach involves anharmonic coupling between the high frequency stretching vibration (double well potential) and low-frequency donor-acceptor stretching mode (Morse potential) as well as the electrical anharmonicity of the dipole moment operator of the fast mode. A direct relaxation mechanism is incorporated through a time decaying exponential

  19. Predicting PTSD using the New York Risk Score with genotype data: potential clinical and research opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boscarino JA

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Joseph A Boscarino,1,2 H Lester Kirchner,3,4 Stuart N Hoffman,5 Porat M Erlich1,4 1Center for Health Research, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, 2Department of Psychiatry, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, 3Division of Medicine, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, 4Department of Medicine, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, 5Department of Neurology, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, PA, USA Background: We previously developed a post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD screening instrument, ie, the New York PTSD Risk Score (NYPRS, that was effective in predicting PTSD. In the present study, we assessed a version of this risk score that also included genetic information. Methods: Utilizing diagnostic testing methods, we hierarchically examined different prediction variables identified in previous NYPRS research, including genetic risk-allele information, to assess lifetime and current PTSD status among a population of trauma-exposed adults. Results: We found that, in predicting lifetime PTSD, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC for the Primary Care PTSD Screen alone was 0.865. When we added psychosocial predictors from the original NYPRS to the model, including depression, sleep disturbance, and a measure of health care access, the AUC increased to 0.902, which was a significant improvement (P = 0.0021. When genetic information was added in the form of a count of PTSD risk alleles located within FKBP, COMT, CHRNA5, and CRHR1 genetic loci (coded 0–6, the AUC increased to 0.920, which was also a significant improvement (P = 0.0178. The results for current PTSD were similar. In the final model for current PTSD with the psychosocial risk factors included, genotype resulted in a prediction weight of 17 for each risk allele present, indicating that a person with six risk alleles or more would receive a PTSD risk score of 17 × 6 = 102, the highest risk score for any of the predictors studied. Conclusion: Genetic

  20. Applicability of effective fragment potential version 2 - Molecular dynamics (EFP2-MD) simulations for predicting excess properties of mixed solvents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroki, Nahoko; Mori, Hirotoshi

    2018-02-01

    Effective fragment potential version 2 - molecular dynamics (EFP2-MD) simulations, where the EFP2 is a polarizable force field based on ab initio electronic structure calculations were applied to water-methanol binary mixture. Comparing EFP2s defined with (aug-)cc-pVXZ (X = D,T) basis sets, it was found that large sets are necessary to generate sufficiently accurate EFP2 for predicting mixture properties. It was shown that EFP2-MD could predict the excess molar volume. Since the computational cost of EFP2-MD are far less than ab initio MD, the results presented herein demonstrate that EFP2-MD is promising for predicting physicochemical properties of novel mixed solvents.

  1. Predictive Power of Machine Learning for Optimizing Solar Water Heater Performance: The Potential Application of High-Throughput Screening

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting the performance of solar water heater (SWH is challenging due to the complexity of the system. Fortunately, knowledge-based machine learning can provide a fast and precise prediction method for SWH performance. With the predictive power of machine learning models, we can further solve a more challenging question: how to cost-effectively design a high-performance SWH? Here, we summarize our recent studies and propose a general framework of SWH design using a machine learning-based high-throughput screening (HTS method. Design of water-in-glass evacuated tube solar water heater (WGET-SWH is selected as a case study to show the potential application of machine learning-based HTS to the design and optimization of solar energy systems.

  2. Predicting Potential Fire Severity Using Vegetation, Topography and Surface Moisture Availability in a Eurasian Boreal Forest Landscape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Fang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Severity of wildfires is a critical component of the fire regime and plays an important role in determining forest ecosystem response to fire disturbance. Predicting spatial distribution of potential fire severity can be valuable in guiding fire and fuel management planning. Spatial controls on fire severity patterns have attracted growing interest, but few studies have attempted to predict potential fire severity in fire-prone Eurasian boreal forests. Furthermore, the influences of fire weather variation on spatial heterogeneity of fire severity remain poorly understood at fine scales. We assessed the relative importance and influence of pre-fire vegetation, topography, and surface moisture availability (SMA on fire severity in 21 lightning-ignited fires occurring in two different fire years (3 fires in 2000, 18 fires in 2010 of the Great Xing’an Mountains with an ensemble modeling approach of boosted regression tree (BRT. SMA was derived from 8-day moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS evapotranspiration products. We predicted the potential distribution of fire severity in two fire years and evaluated the prediction accuracies. BRT modeling revealed that vegetation, topography, and SMA explained more than 70% of variations in fire severity (mean 83.0% for 2000, mean 73.8% for 2010. Our analysis showed that evergreen coniferous forests were more likely to experience higher severity fires than the dominant deciduous larch forests of this region, and deciduous broadleaf forests and shrublands usually burned at a significantly lower fire severity. High-severity fires tended to occur in gentle and well-drained slopes at high altitudes, especially those with north-facing aspects. SMA exhibited notable and consistent negative association with severity. Predicted fire severity from our model exhibited strong agreement with the observed fire severity (mean r2 = 0.795 for 2000, 0.618 for 2010. Our results verified that spatial variation

  3. Predicted channel types - Potential for Habitat Improvement in the Columbia River Basin

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Basin-wide analysis of potential to improve tributary habitats in the Columbia River basin through restoration of habitat-forming processes. Identification of...

  4. Effect of quantity and composition of waste on the prediction of annual methane potential from landfills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Han Sang; Moon, Hee Sun; Kim, Jae Young

    2012-04-01

    A study was conducted to investigate the effect of waste composition change on the methane production in landfills. An empirical equation for the methane potential of the mixed waste is derived based on the methane potential values of individual waste components and the compositional ratio of waste components. A correction factor was introduced in the equation and was determined from the BMP and lysimeter tests. The equation and LandGEM were applied for a full size landfill and the annual methane potential was estimated. Results showed that the changes in quantity of waste affected the annual methane potential from the landfill more than the changes of waste composition. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Predicted riparian vegetation - Potential for Habitat Improvement in the Columbia River Basin

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Basin-wide analysis of potential to improve tributary habitats in the Columbia River basin through restoration of habitat-forming processes. Identification of...

  6. An integrated computational validation approach for potential novel miRNA prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pooja Viswam

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available MicroRNAs (miRNAs are short, non-coding RNAs between 17bp-24bp length that regulate gene expression by targeting mRNA molecules. The regulatory functions of miRNAs are known to be majorly associated with disease phenotypes such as cancer, cell signaling, cell division, growth and other metabolisms. Novel miRNAs are defined as sequences which does not have any similarity with the existing known sequences and void of any experimental evidences. In recent decades, the advent of next-generation sequencing allows us to capture the small RNA molecules form the cells and developing methods to estimate their expression levels. Several computational algorithms are available to predict the novel miRNAs from the deep sequencing data. In this work, we integrated three novel miRNA prediction programs miRDeep, miRanalyzer and miRPRo to compare and validate their prediction efficiency. The dicer cleavage sites, alignment density, seed conservation, minimum free energy, AU-GC percentage, secondary loop scores, false discovery rates and confidence scores will be considered for comparison and evaluation. Efficiency to identify isomiRs and base pair mismatches in a strand specific manner will also be considered for the computational validation. Further, the criteria and parameters for the identification of the best possible novel miRNA with minimal false positive rates were deduced.

  7. Optical coherence tomography: a potential tool to predict premature rupture of fetal membranes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micili, Serap C; Valter, Markus; Oflaz, Hakan; Ozogul, Candan; Linder, Peter; Föckler, Nicole; Artmann, Gerhard M; Digel, Ilya; Artmann, Aysegul T

    2013-04-01

    A fundamental question addressed in this study was the feasibility of preterm birth prediction based on a noncontact investigation of fetal membranes in situ. Although the phenomena of preterm birth and the premature rupture of the fetal membrane are well known, currently, there are no diagnostic tools for their prediction. The aim of this study was to assess whether optical coherence tomography could be used for clinical investigations of high-risk pregnancies. The thickness of fetal membranes was measured in parallel by optical coherence tomography and histological techniques for the following types of birth: normal births, preterm births without premature ruptures and births at full term with premature rupture of membrane. Our study revealed that the membrane thickness correlates with the birth type. Normal births membranes were statistically significantly thicker than those belonging to the other two groups. Thus, in spite of almost equal duration of gestation of the normal births and the births at full term with premature rupture, the corresponding membrane thicknesses differed. This difference is possibly related to previously reported water accumulation in the membranes. The optical coherence tomography results were encouraging, suggesting that this technology could be used in future to predict and distinguish between different kinds of births.

  8. Machine learning predictions of molecular properties: Accurate many-body potentials and nonlocality in chemical space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, Katja; Biegler, Franziska; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; Pronobis, Wiktor; Lilienfeld, O. Anatole von; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Tkatchenko, Alexandre

    2015-01-01

    Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstrate prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the 'holy grail' of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. The same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies

  9. The size prediction of potential inclusions embedded in the sub-surface of fused silica by damage morphology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Xiang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available A model for predicting the size ranges of different potential inclusions initiating damage on the surface of fused silica has been presented. This accounts for the heating of nanometric inclusions whose absorptivity is described based on Mie Theory. The depth profile of impurities has been measured by ICP-OES. By the measured temporal pulse profile on the surface of fused silica, the temperature and thermal stress has been calculated. Furthermore, considering the limit conditions of temperature and thermal stress strength for different damage morphologies, the size range of potential inclusions for fused silica is discussed.

  10. Remote sensing for predicting potential habitats of Oncomelania hupensis in Hongze, Baima and Gaoyou lakes in Jiangsu province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo-Jing Yang

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Political and health sector reforms, along with demographic, environmental and socio-economic transformations in the face of global warming, could cause the re-emergence of schistosomiasis in areas where transmission has been successfully interrupted and its emergence in previously non-endemic areas in China. In the present study, we used geographic information systems and remote sensing techniques to predict potential habitats of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma japonicum. Focussing on the Hongze, Baima and Gaoyou lakes in Jiangsu province in eastern China, we developed a model using the normalized difference vegetation index, a tasseled-cap transformed wetness index, and flooding areas to predict snail habitats at a small scale. Data were extracted from two Landsat images, one taken during a typical dry year and the other obtained three years later during a flooding event. An area of approximately 163.6 km2 was predicted as potential O. hupensis habitats around the three lakes, which accounts for 4.3% of the estimated snail habitats in China. In turn, these predicted snail habitats are risk areas for transmission of schistosomiasis, and hence illustrate the scale of the possible impact of climate change and other ecological transformations. The generated risk map can be used by health policy makers to guide mitigation policies targetting the possible spread of O. hupensis, and with the aim of containing the transmission of S. japonicum.

  11. Prediction of phospholipidosis-inducing potential of drugs by in vitro biochemical and physicochemical assays followed by multivariate analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuroda, Yukihiro; Saito, Madoka

    2010-03-01

    An in vitro method to predict phospholipidosis-inducing potential of cationic amphiphilic drugs (CADs) was developed using biochemical and physicochemical assays. The following parameters were applied to principal component analysis, as well as physicochemical parameters: pK(a) and clogP; dissociation constant of CADs from phospholipid, inhibition of enzymatic phospholipid degradation, and metabolic stability of CADs. In the score plot, phospholipidosis-inducing drugs (amiodarone, propranolol, imipramine, chloroquine) were plotted locally forming the subspace for positive CADs; while non-inducing drugs (chlorpromazine, chloramphenicol, disopyramide, lidocaine) were placed scattering out of the subspace, allowing a clear discrimination between both classes of CADs. CADs that often produce false results by conventional physicochemical or cell-based assay methods were accurately determined by our method. Basic and lipophilic disopyramide could be accurately predicted as a nonphospholipidogenic drug. Moreover, chlorpromazine, which is often falsely predicted as a phospholipidosis-inducing drug by in vitro methods, could be accurately determined. Because this method uses the pharmacokinetic parameters pK(a), clogP, and metabolic stability, which are usually obtained in the early stages of drug development, the method newly requires only the two parameters, binding to phospholipid, and inhibition of lipid degradation enzyme. Therefore, this method provides a cost-effective approach to predict phospholipidosis-inducing potential of a drug. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Regional prediction of long-term landfill gas to energy potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amini, Hamid R; Reinhart, Debra R

    2011-01-01

    Quantifying landfill gas to energy (LFGTE) potential as a source of renewable energy is difficult due to the challenges involved in modeling landfill gas (LFG) generation. In this paper a methodology is presented to estimate LFGTE potential on a regional scale over a 25-year timeframe with consideration of modeling uncertainties. The methodology was demonstrated for the US state of Florida, as a case study, and showed that Florida could increase the annual LFGTE production by more than threefold by 2035 through installation of LFGTE facilities at all landfills. The estimated electricity production potential from Florida LFG is equivalent to removing some 70 million vehicles from highways or replacing over 800 million barrels of oil consumption during the 2010-2035 timeframe. Diverting food waste could significantly reduce fugitive LFG emissions, while having minimal effect on the LFGTE potential; whereas, achieving high diversion goals through increased recycling will result in reduced uncollected LFG and significant loss of energy production potential which may be offset by energy savings from material recovery and reuse. Estimates showed that the power density for Florida LFGTE production could reach as high as 10 Wm(-2) with optimized landfill operation and energy production practices. The environmental benefits from increased lifetime LFG collection efficiencies magnify the value of LFGTE projects. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. A case study for the integration of predictive mineral potential maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Saro; Oh, Hyun-Joo; Heo, Chul-Ho; Park, Inhye

    2014-09-01

    This study aims to elaborate on the mineral potential maps using various models and verify the accuracy for the epithermal gold (Au) — silver (Ag) deposits in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment assuming that all deposits shared a common genesis. The maps of potential Au and Ag deposits were produced by geological data in Taebaeksan mineralized area, Korea. The methodological framework consists of three main steps: 1) identification of spatial relationships 2) quantification of such relationships and 3) combination of multiple quantified relationships. A spatial database containing 46 Au-Ag deposits was constructed using GIS. The spatial association between training deposits and 26 related factors were identified and quantified by probabilistic and statistical modelling. The mineral potential maps were generated by integrating all factors using the overlay method and recombined afterwards using the likelihood ratio model. They were verified by comparison with test mineral deposit locations. The verification revealed that the combined mineral potential map had the greatest accuracy (83.97%), whereas it was 72.24%, 65.85%, 72.23% and 71.02% for the likelihood ratio, weight of evidence, logistic regression and artificial neural network models, respectively. The mineral potential map can provide useful information for the mineral resource development.

  14. A Rat α-Fetoprotein Binding Activity Prediction Model to Facilitate Assessment of the Endocrine Disruption Potential of Environmental Chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Huixiao; Shen, Jie; Ng, Hui Wen; Sakkiah, Sugunadevi; Ye, Hao; Ge, Weigong; Gong, Ping; Xiao, Wenming; Tong, Weida

    2016-03-25

    Endocrine disruptors such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), diethylstilbestrol (DES) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) are agents that interfere with the endocrine system and cause adverse health effects. Huge public health concern about endocrine disruptors has arisen. One of the mechanisms of endocrine disruption is through binding of endocrine disruptors with the hormone receptors in the target cells. Entrance of endocrine disruptors into target cells is the precondition of endocrine disruption. The binding capability of a chemical with proteins in the blood affects its entrance into the target cells and, thus, is very informative for the assessment of potential endocrine disruption of chemicals. α-fetoprotein is one of the major serum proteins that binds to a variety of chemicals such as estrogens. To better facilitate assessment of endocrine disruption of environmental chemicals, we developed a model for α-fetoprotein binding activity prediction using the novel pattern recognition method (Decision Forest) and the molecular descriptors calculated from two-dimensional structures by Mold² software. The predictive capability of the model has been evaluated through internal validation using 125 training chemicals (average balanced accuracy of 69%) and external validations using 22 chemicals (balanced accuracy of 71%). Prediction confidence analysis revealed the model performed much better at high prediction confidence. Our results indicate that the model is useful (when predictions are in high confidence) in endocrine disruption risk assessment of environmental chemicals though improvement by increasing number of training chemicals is needed.

  15. Characterization and validation of an in silico toxicology model to predict the mutagenic potential of drug impurities*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valerio, Luis G., E-mail: luis.valerio@fda.hhs.gov [Science and Research Staff, Office of Pharmaceutical Science, Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 10903 New Hampshire Avenue, Silver Spring, MD 20993–0002 (United States); Cross, Kevin P. [Leadscope, Inc., 1393 Dublin Road, Columbus, OH, 43215–1084 (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Control and minimization of human exposure to potential genotoxic impurities found in drug substances and products is an important part of preclinical safety assessments of new drug products. The FDA's 2008 draft guidance on genotoxic and carcinogenic impurities in drug substances and products allows use of computational quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSAR) to identify structural alerts for known and expected impurities present at levels below qualified thresholds. This study provides the information necessary to establish the practical use of a new in silico toxicology model for predicting Salmonella t. mutagenicity (Ames assay outcome) of drug impurities and other chemicals. We describe the model's chemical content and toxicity fingerprint in terms of compound space, molecular and structural toxicophores, and have rigorously tested its predictive power using both cross-validation and external validation experiments, as well as case studies. Consistent with desired regulatory use, the model performs with high sensitivity (81%) and high negative predictivity (81%) based on external validation with 2368 compounds foreign to the model and having known mutagenicity. A database of drug impurities was created from proprietary FDA submissions and the public literature which found significant overlap between the structural features of drug impurities and training set chemicals in the QSAR model. Overall, the model's predictive performance was found to be acceptable for screening drug impurities for Salmonella mutagenicity. -- Highlights: ► We characterize a new in silico model to predict mutagenicity of drug impurities. ► The model predicts Salmonella mutagenicity and will be useful for safety assessment. ► We examine toxicity fingerprints and toxicophores of this Ames assay model. ► We compare these attributes to those found in drug impurities known to FDA/CDER. ► We validate the model and find it has a desired predictive

  16. Characterization and validation of an in silico toxicology model to predict the mutagenic potential of drug impurities*

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valerio, Luis G.; Cross, Kevin P.

    2012-01-01

    Control and minimization of human exposure to potential genotoxic impurities found in drug substances and products is an important part of preclinical safety assessments of new drug products. The FDA's 2008 draft guidance on genotoxic and carcinogenic impurities in drug substances and products allows use of computational quantitative structure–activity relationships (QSAR) to identify structural alerts for known and expected impurities present at levels below qualified thresholds. This study provides the information necessary to establish the practical use of a new in silico toxicology model for predicting Salmonella t. mutagenicity (Ames assay outcome) of drug impurities and other chemicals. We describe the model's chemical content and toxicity fingerprint in terms of compound space, molecular and structural toxicophores, and have rigorously tested its predictive power using both cross-validation and external validation experiments, as well as case studies. Consistent with desired regulatory use, the model performs with high sensitivity (81%) and high negative predictivity (81%) based on external validation with 2368 compounds foreign to the model and having known mutagenicity. A database of drug impurities was created from proprietary FDA submissions and the public literature which found significant overlap between the structural features of drug impurities and training set chemicals in the QSAR model. Overall, the model's predictive performance was found to be acceptable for screening drug impurities for Salmonella mutagenicity. -- Highlights: ► We characterize a new in silico model to predict mutagenicity of drug impurities. ► The model predicts Salmonella mutagenicity and will be useful for safety assessment. ► We examine toxicity fingerprints and toxicophores of this Ames assay model. ► We compare these attributes to those found in drug impurities known to FDA/CDER. ► We validate the model and find it has a desired predictive performance.

  17. Predicting potential global distributions of two Miscanthus grasses: implications for horticulture, biofuel production, and biological invasions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hager, Heather A; Sinasac, Sarah E; Gedalof, Ze'ev; Newman, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    In many regions, large proportions of the naturalized and invasive non-native floras were originally introduced deliberately by humans. Pest risk assessments are now used in many jurisdictions to regulate the importation of species and usually include an estimation of the potential distribution in the import area. Two species of Asian grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis) that were originally introduced to North America as ornamental plants have since escaped cultivation. These species and their hybrid offspring are now receiving attention for large-scale production as biofuel crops in North America and elsewhere. We evaluated their potential global climate suitability for cultivation and potential invasion using the niche model CLIMEX and evaluated the models' sensitivity to the parameter values. We then compared the sensitivity of projections of future climatically suitable area under two climate models and two emissions scenarios. The models indicate that the species have been introduced to most of the potential global climatically suitable areas in the northern but not the southern hemisphere. The more narrowly distributed species (M. sacchariflorus) is more sensitive to changes in model parameters, which could have implications for modelling species of conservation concern. Climate projections indicate likely contractions in potential range in the south, but expansions in the north, particularly in introduced areas where biomass production trials are under way. Climate sensitivity analysis shows that projections differ more between the selected climate change models than between the selected emissions scenarios. Local-scale assessments are required to overlay suitable habitat with climate projections to estimate areas of cultivation potential and invasion risk.

  18. Fetal hemoglobin, α1-microglobulin and hemopexin are potential predictive first trimester biomarkers for preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Ulrik Dolberg; Gram, Magnus; Ranstam, Jonas; Thilaganathan, Basky; Kerström, Bo; Hansson, Stefan R

    2016-04-01

    Overproduction of cell-free fetal hemoglobin (HbF) in the preeclamptic placenta has been recently implicated as a new etiological factor of preeclampsia. In this study, maternal serum levels of HbF and the endogenous hemoglobin/heme scavenging systems were evaluated as predictive biomarkers for preeclampsia in combination with uterine artery Doppler ultrasound. Case-control study including 433 women in early pregnancy (mean 13.7weeks of gestation) of which 86 subsequently developed preeclampsia. The serum concentrations of HbF, total cell-free hemoglobin, hemopexin, haptoglobin and α1-microglobulin were measured in maternal serum. All patients were examined with uterine artery Doppler ultrasound. Logistic regression models were developed, which included the biomarkers, ultrasound indices, and maternal risk factors. There were significantly higher serum concentrations of HbF and α1-microglobulin and significantly lower serum concentrations of hemopexin in patients who later developed preeclampsia. The uterine artery Doppler ultrasound results showed significantly higher pulsatility index values in the preeclampsia group. The optimal prediction model was obtained by combining HbF, α1-microglobulin and hemopexin in combination with the maternal characteristics parity, diabetes and pre-pregnancy hypertension. The optimal sensitivity for all preeclampsia was 60% at 95% specificity. Overproduction of placentally derived HbF and depletion of hemoglobin/heme scavenging mechanisms are involved in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia. The combination of HbF and α1-microglobulin and/or hemopexin may serve as a prediction model for preeclampsia in combination with maternal risk factors and/or uterine artery Doppler ultrasound. Copyright © 2016 International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. The predictive and prognostic potential of plasma telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) RNA in rectal cancer patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampazzo, Enrica; Del Bianco, Paola; Bertorelle, Roberta; Boso, Caterina; Perin, Alessandro; Spiro, Giovanna; Bergamo, Francesca; Belluco, Claudio; Buonadonna, Angela; Palazzari, Elisa; Leonardi, Sara; De Paoli, Antonino; Pucciarelli, Salvatore; De Rossi, Anita

    2018-01-01

    Background: Preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by surgery is the standard care for locally advanced rectal cancer, but tumour response to CRT and disease outcome are variable. The current study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of plasma telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) levels in predicting tumour response and clinical outcome. Methods: 176 rectal cancer patients were included. Plasma samples were collected at baseline (before CRT=T0), 2 weeks after CRT was initiated (T1), post-CRT and before surgery (T2), and 4–8 months after surgery (T3) time points. Plasma TERT mRNA levels and total cell-free RNA were determined using real-time PCR. Results: Plasma levels of TERT were significantly lower at T2 (P<0.0001) in responders than in non-responders. Post-CRT TERT levels and the differences between pre- and post-CRT TERT levels independently predicted tumour response, and the prediction model had an area under curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73–0.87). Multiple analysis demonstrated that patients with detectable TERT levels at T2 and T3 time points had a risk of disease progression 2.13 (95% CI 1.10–4.11)-fold and 4.55 (95% CI 1.48–13.95)-fold higher, respectively, than those with undetectable plasma TERT levels. Conclusions: Plasma TERT levels are independent markers of tumour response and are prognostic of disease progression in rectal cancer patients who undergo neoadjuvant therapy. PMID:29449673

  20. Predictive Factors of Potential Malignant Transformation in Recurrent Calcifying Cystic Odontogenic Tumor: Review of the Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sepideh Mokhtari

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Calcifying cystic odontogenic tumor (CCOT demonstrates considerable diversity in histopathology and clinical behavior. Ghost cell odontogenic carcinoma (GCOC is the rare malignant counterpart of CCOT and it frequently arises from malignant transformation of a recurrent CCOT. In this paper, we present a case of CCOT and discuss its distinct histopathologic features in recurrence. Then, we will have a review on clinical, histopathological, and immunohistochemical aspects of GCOC in the literature. Predictive factors of malignant transformation in a benign CCOT will also be discussed.

  1. Basal and prism dislocation cores in magnesium: comparison of first-principles and embedded-atom-potential methods predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yasi, J A; Nogaret, T; Curtin, W A; Trinkle, D R; Qi, Y; Hector, L G Jr

    2009-01-01

    The core structures of screw and edge dislocations on the basal and prism planes in Mg, and the associated gamma surfaces, were studied using an ab initio method and the embedded-atom-method interatomic potentials developed by Sun et al and Liu et al. The ab initio calculations predict that the basal plane dislocations dissociate into partials split by 16.7 Å (edge) and 6.3 Å (screw), as compared with 14.3 Å and 12.7 Å (Sun and Liu edge), and 6.3 Å and 1.4 Å (Sun and Liu screw), with the Liu screw dislocation being metastable. In the prism plane, the screw and edge cores are compact and the edge core structures are all similar, while ab initio does not predict a stable prismatic screw in stress-free conditions. These results are qualitatively understood through an examination of the gamma surfaces for interplanar sliding on the basal and prism planes. The Peierls stresses at T = 0 K for basal slip are a few megapascals for the Sun potential, in agreement with experiments, but are ten times larger for the Liu potential. The Peierls stresses for prism slip are 10–40 MPa for both potentials. Overall, the dislocation core structures from ab initio are well represented by the Sun potential in all cases while the Liu potential shows some notable differences. These results suggest that the Sun potential is preferable for studying other dislocations in Mg, particularly the (c + a) dislocations, for which the core structures are much larger and not accessible by ab initio methods

  2. Prediction of adsorption from liquid mixtures in microporous media by the potential theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monsalvo, Matias Alfonso; Shapiro, Alexander

    2007-01-01

    Despite its industrial importance, adsorption from the liquid phase has been studied much less extensively than adsorption from the gas phase. In this paper, we study the adsorption of liquid mixtures on the basis of the multicomponent potential theory of adsorption (MPTA). The MPTA is based on t...

  3. Predicting the ethanol potential of wheat straw using near-infrared spectroscopy and chemometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinnan, Åsmund; Bruun, Sander; Lindedam, Jane

    2017-01-01

    of using near-infrared spectroscopy to evaluate the ethanol potential of wheat straw by analyzing more than 1000 samples from different wheat varieties and growth conditions. During the calibration model development, the prime emphasis was to investigate the correlation structure between the two major...

  4. NOAA predicts moderate flood potential in Midwest, elevated risk of ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    March 20, 2014 U.S. Spring Flood Risk Map for 2014. U.S. Spring Flood Risk Map for 2014. (Credit: NOAA moderate flood potential in Midwest, elevated risk of ice jams; California and Southwest stuck with drought minor or moderate risk of exceeding flood levels this spring with the highest threat in the southern

  5. Predicting the Potential Distribution of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under Climate Change in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjun Jiang

    Full Text Available Global warming has created opportunities and challenges for the survival and development of species. Determining how climate change may impact multiple ecosystem levels and lead to various species adaptations is necessary for both biodiversity conservation and sustainable biological resource utilization. In this study, we employed Maxent to predict changes in the habitat range and altitude of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under current and future climate scenarios in China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 were modeled for two time periods (2050 and 2070. The model inputs included 732 presence points and nine sets of environmental variables under the current conditions and the four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curve (AUC was used to evaluate model performance. All of the AUCs were greater than 0.80, thereby placing these models in the "very good" category. Using a jackknife analysis, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and altitude were found to be the top three variables that affect the range of P. tenuifolia. Additionally, we found that the predicted highly suitable habitat was in reasonable agreement with its actual distribution. Furthermore, the highly suitable habitat area was slowly reduced over time.

  6. The potential of predictive analytics to provide clinical decision support in depression treatment planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Ronald C

    2018-01-01

    To review progress developing clinical decision support tools for personalized treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD). Over the years, a variety of individual indicators ranging from biomarkers to clinical observations and self-report scales have been used to predict various aspects of differential MDD treatment response. Most of this work focused on predicting remission either with antidepressant medications versus psychotherapy, some antidepressant medications versus others, some psychotherapies versus others, and combination therapies versus monotherapies. However, to date, none of the individual predictors in these studies has been strong enough to guide optimal treatment selection for most patients. Interest consequently turned to decision support tools made up of multiple predictors, but the development of such tools has been hampered by small study sample sizes. Design recommendations are made here for future studies to address this problem. Recommendations include using large prospective observational studies followed by pragmatic trials rather than smaller, expensive controlled treatment trials for preliminary development of decision support tools; basing these tools on comprehensive batteries of inexpensive self-report and clinical predictors (e.g., self-administered performance-based neurocognitive tests) versus expensive biomarkers; and reserving biomarker assessments for targeted studies of patients not well classified by inexpensive predictor batteries.

  7. Stathmin protein level, a potential predictive marker for taxane treatment response in endometrial cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrica M J Werner

    Full Text Available Stathmin is a prognostic marker in many cancers, including endometrial cancer. Preclinical studies, predominantly in breast cancer, have suggested that stathmin may additionally be a predictive marker for response to paclitaxel. We first evaluated the response to paclitaxel in endometrial cancer cell lines before and after stathmin knock-down. Subsequently we investigated the clinical response to paclitaxel containing chemotherapy in metastatic endometrial cancer in relation to stathmin protein level in tumors. Stathmin level was also determined in metastatic lesions, analyzing changes in biomarker status on disease progression. Knock-down of stathmin improved sensitivity to paclitaxel in endometrial carcinoma cell lines with both naturally higher and lower sensitivity to paclitaxel. In clinical samples, high stathmin level was demonstrated to be associated with poor response to paclitaxel containing chemotherapy and to reduced disease specific survival only in patients treated with such combination. Stathmin level increased significantly from primary to metastatic lesions. This study suggests, supported by both preclinical and clinical data, that stathmin could be a predictive biomarker for response to paclitaxel treatment in endometrial cancer. Re-assessment of stathmin level in metastatic lesions prior to treatment start may be relevant. Also, validation in a randomized clinical trial will be important.

  8. Multimodality Tumor Delineation and Predictive Modelling via Fuzzy-Fusion Deformable Models and Biological Potential Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasserman, Richard Marc

    The radiation therapy treatment planning (RTTP) process may be subdivided into three planning stages: gross tumor delineation, clinical target delineation, and modality dependent target definition. The research presented will focus on the first two planning tasks. A gross tumor target delineation methodology is proposed which focuses on the integration of MRI, CT, and PET imaging data towards the generation of a mathematically optimal tumor boundary. The solution to this problem is formulated within a framework integrating concepts from the fields of deformable modelling, region growing, fuzzy logic, and data fusion. The resulting fuzzy fusion algorithm can integrate both edge and region information from multiple medical modalities to delineate optimal regions of pathological tissue content. The subclinical boundaries of an infiltrating neoplasm cannot be determined explicitly via traditional imaging methods and are often defined to extend a fixed distance from the gross tumor boundary. In order to improve the clinical target definition process an estimation technique is proposed via which tumor growth may be modelled and subclinical growth predicted. An in vivo, macroscopic primary brain tumor growth model is presented, which may be fit to each patient undergoing treatment, allowing for the prediction of future growth and consequently the ability to estimate subclinical local invasion. Additionally, the patient specific in vivo tumor model will be of significant utility in multiple diagnostic clinical applications.

  9. Ab initio calculation of intermolecular potentials for dimer Cl_2-Cl_2 and prediction of second virial coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen Thanh Duoc; Nguyen Thi Ai Nhung; Tran Duong; Pham Van Tat

    2015-01-01

    The results presented in this paper are the ab initio intermolecular potentials and the second virial coefficient, B_2 (T) of the dimer Cl_2-Cl_2. These ab initio potentials were proposed by the quantum chemical calculations at high level of theory CCSD(T) with basis sets of Dunning valence correlation-consistent aug-cc-pVmZ (m = 2, 3); these results were extrapolated to complete basis set limit aug-cc-pV23Z. The ab initio energies of complete basis set limit aug-cc-pV23Z resulted from the exponential extrapolation were used to construct the 5-site pair potential functions. The second virial coefficients for this dimer were predicted from those with four-dimensional integration. The second virial coefficients were also corrected to first-order quantum effects. The results turn out to be in good agreement with experimental data, if available, or with those from empirical correlation. The quality of ab initio 5-site potentials proved the reliability for prediction of molecular thermodynamic properties. (author)

  10. Comparison of four modeling tools for the prediction of potential distribution for non-indigenous weeds in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magarey, Roger; Newton, Leslie; Hong, Seung C.; Takeuchi, Yu; Christie, Dave; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Kohl, Lisa; Damus, Martin; Higgins, Steven I.; Miller, Leah; Castro, Karen; West, Amanda; Hastings, John; Cook, Gericke; Kartesz, John; Koop, Anthony

    2018-01-01

    This study compares four models for predicting the potential distribution of non-indigenous weed species in the conterminous U.S. The comparison focused on evaluating modeling tools and protocols as currently used for weed risk assessment or for predicting the potential distribution of invasive weeds. We used six weed species (three highly invasive and three less invasive non-indigenous species) that have been established in the U.S. for more than 75 years. The experiment involved providing non-U. S. location data to users familiar with one of the four evaluated techniques, who then developed predictive models that were applied to the United States without knowing the identity of the species or its U.S. distribution. We compared a simple GIS climate matching technique known as Proto3, a simple climate matching tool CLIMEX Match Climates, the correlative model MaxEnt, and a process model known as the Thornley Transport Resistance (TTR) model. Two experienced users ran each modeling tool except TTR, which had one user. Models were trained with global species distribution data excluding any U.S. data, and then were evaluated using the current known U.S. distribution. The influence of weed species identity and modeling tool on prevalence and sensitivity effects was compared using a generalized linear mixed model. Each modeling tool itself had a low statistical significance, while weed species alone accounted for 69.1 and 48.5% of the variance for prevalence and sensitivity, respectively. These results suggest that simple modeling tools might perform as well as complex ones in the case of predicting potential distribution for a weed not yet present in the United States. Considerations of model accuracy should also be balanced with those of reproducibility and ease of use. More important than the choice of modeling tool is the construction of robust protocols and testing both new and experienced users under blind test conditions that approximate operational conditions.

  11. Prediction of Tetraoxygen Reaction Mechanism with Sulfur Atom on the Singlet Potential Energy Surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Khademzadeh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanism of S+O4 (D2h reaction has been investigated at the B3LYP/6-311+G(3df and CCSD levels on the singlet potential energy surface. One stable complex has been found for the S+O4 (D2h reaction, IN1, on the singlet potential energy surface. For the title reaction, we obtained four kinds of products at the B3LYP level, which have enough thermodynamic stability. The results reveal that the product P3 is spontaneous and exothermic with −188.042 and −179.147 kcal/mol in Gibbs free energy and enthalpy of reaction, respectively. Because P1 adduct is produced after passing two low energy level transition states, kinetically, it is the most favorable adduct in the 1S+1O4 (D2h atmospheric reactions.

  12. The new nucleon-nucleon scattering data and the Paris potential predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacombe, M.; Loiseau, B.; Vinh Mau, R.; Cote, J.; Pires, P.

    1980-11-01

    New data (cross section, polarization, Wolfenstein parameters and spin-correlations) on proton-proton and neutron-proton scattering have been recently published by different groups. These include high precision and/or original measurements covering the energy range 6 MeV < Tsub(lab)< 800 MeV. A direct comparison of these data with the values produced by the Paris NN potential for energies Tsub(lab) < 350 MeV is reported here. The agreement between theory and experiment is very satisfactory both for low and medium energies. The total chi-squared for the world NN data set for Tsub(lab) < 350 MeV is also reported and compared with those given by the Arndt et al. phase shift-analysis and by the phenomenological Reid soft-core potential

  13. Brain potentials predict learning, transmission and modification of an artificial symbolic system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lumaca, Massimo; Baggio, G.

    2016-01-01

    capacity account for aspects of ‘variation’ observed in symbolic behavior and symbolic systems. We addressed this issue in the domain of auditory processing.We conducted a combined behavioral and EEG study on 2 successive days. On day 1, participants listened to standard and deviant five-tone sequences......: as in previous oddball studies, an mismatch negativity (MMN) was elicited by deviant tones. On day 2, participants learned an artificial signaling system from a trained confederate of the experimenters in a coordination game in which five-tone sequences were associated to affective meanings (emotion......-laden pictures of human faces). In a subsequent game with identical structure, participants transmitted and occasionally changed the signaling system learned during the first game. TheMMNlatency from day 1 predicted learning, transmission and structural modification of signaling systems on day 2. Our study...

  14. The potential role of diffusion-induced grain-boundary migration in extended life prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Handwerker, C.A.; Blendell, J.E.; Interrante, C.G.; Ahn, T.M.

    1993-01-01

    The selection of materials that are suitable for various high-level waste-packaging designs must reflect the need to meet requirements for long-term performance in repository environments that change with time. With this in mind, we examine how grain boundaries in materials are induced to migrate as a result of solute diffusion even at low temperatures, how the composition of the matrix material is changed significantly by this diffusion-induced grain boundary migration (DIGM), and how the changing microstructures and compositions during DIGM lead to major changes in materials performance, such as corrosion or embrittlement. Methods are discussed for prediction of the long-term behavior of materials affected by DIGM

  15. Preoperative prediction of potentially preventable morbidity after fast-track hip and knee arthroplasty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Christoffer C; Petersen, Morten Aa; Kehlet, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    . DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Elective primary unilateral total hip and knee arthroplasty with prospectively collected preoperative patient characteristics; similar standardised fast-track protocols; evaluation of complications through discharge and medical records; and complete 90...... days follow-up through nationwide databases. PARTICIPANTS: 8373 consecutive unselected total hip arthroplasty (THA) and knee arthroplasty from January 2010 to November 2012. RESULTS: There were 557 procedures (6.4%) followed by potentially preventable complications resulting in hospitalisation >4 days...

  16. Superfractionation as a potential hypoxic cell radiosensitizer: prediction of an optimum dose per fraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dasu, Alexandru; Denekamp, Juliana

    1999-01-01

    Purpose: A dose 'window of opportunity' has been identified in an earlier modeling study if the inducible repair variant of the LQ model is adopted instead of the pure LQ model, and if all survival curve parameters are equally modified by the presence or absence of oxygen. In this paper we have extended the calculations to consider survival curve parameters from 15 sets of data obtained for cells tested at low doses using clonogenic assays. Methods and Materials: A simple computer model has been used to simulate the response of each cell line to various doses per fraction in multifraction schedules, with oxic and hypoxic cells receiving the same fractional dose. We have then used pairs of simulated survival curves to estimate the effective hypoxic protection (OER') as a function of the dose per fraction. Results: The resistance of hypoxic cells is reduced by using smaller doses per fraction than 2 Gy in all these fractionated clinical simulations, whether using a simple LQ model, or the more complex LQ/IR model. If there is no inducible repair, the optimum dose is infinitely low. If there is inducible repair, there is an optimum dose per fraction at which hypoxic protection is minimized. This is usually around 0.5 Gy. It depends on the dose needed to induce repair being higher in hypoxia than in oxygen. The OER' may even go below unity, i.e. hypoxic cells may be more sensitive than oxic cells. Conclusions: If oxic and hypoxic cells are repeatedly exposed to doses of the same magnitude, as occurs in clinical radiotherapy, the observed hypoxic protection varies with the fractional dose. The OER' is predicted to diminish at lower doses in all cell lines. The loss of hypoxic resistance with superfractionation is predicted to be proportional to the capacity of the cells to induce repair, i.e. their intrinsic radioresistance at a dose of 2 Gy

  17. A simulation for predicting potential cooling effect on LPG-fuelled vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiyo, M.; Soeparman, S.; Wahyudi, S.; Hamidi, N.

    2016-03-01

    Liquefied Petroleum Gas vehicles (LPG Vehicles) provide a potential cooling effect about 430 kJ/kg LPG consumption. This cooling effect is obtained from the LPG phase change from liquid to vapor in the vaporizer. In the existing system, energy to evaporate LPG is obtained from the coolant which is circulated around the vaporizer. One advantage is that the LPG (70/30 propane / butane) when expanded from 8 bar to at 1.2 bar, the temperature is less than -25 °C. These conditions provide opportunities to evaporate LPG with ambient air flow, then produce a cooling effect for cooling car's cabin. In this study, some LPG mix was investigated to determine the optimum condition. A simulation was carried out to estimate potential cooling effects of 2000 cc engine from 1000 rpm to 6000 rpm. In this case, the mass flow rate of LPG is a function of fuel consumption. The simulation result shows that the LPG (70/30 propane/butane) provide the greatest cooling effect compared with other mixtures. In conclusion, the 2000 cc engine fueled LPG at 3000 rpm provides potential cooling effect more than 1.3 kW, despite in the low engine speed (1000 rpm) only provides about 0.5 kW.

  18. On the use and potential use of seasonal to decadal climate predictions for decision-making in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Marta Bruno; Dessai, Suraje

    2014-05-01

    The need for climate information to help inform decision-making in sectors susceptible to climate events and impacts is widely recognised. In Europe, developments in the science and models underpinning the study of climate variability and change have led to an increased interest in seasonal to decadal climate predictions (S2DCP). While seasonal climate forecasts are now routinely produced operationally by a number of centres around the world, decadal climate predictions are still in its infancy restricted to the realm of research. Contrary to other regions of the world, where the use of these types of forecasts, particularly at seasonal timescales, has been pursued in recent years due to higher levels of predictability, little is known about the uptake and climate information needs of end-users regarding S2DCP in Europe. To fill this gap we conducted in-depth interviews with experts and decision-makers across a range of European sectors, a workshop with European climate services providers, and a systematic literature review on the use of S2DCP in Europe. This study is part of the EUropean Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale (EUPORIAS) project which aims to develop semi-operational prototypes of impact prediction systems in Europe on seasonal to decadal timescales. We found that the emerging landscape of users and potential users of S2DCP in Europe is complex and heterogeneous. Differences in S2DCP information needs across and within organisations and sectors are largely underpinned by factors such as the institutional and regulatory context of the organisations, the plethora of activities and decision-making processes involved, the level of expertise and capacity of the users, and the availability of resources within the organisations. In addition, although the use of S2DCP across Europe is still fairly limited, particular sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, water, (re)insurance, and transport are taking the lead on

  19. Development of a generally applicable morphokinetic algorithm capable of predicting the implantation potential of embryos transferred on Day 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Bjørn Molt; Boel, Mikkel; Montag, Markus; Gardner, David K.

    2016-01-01

    STUDY QUESTION Can a generally applicable morphokinetic algorithm suitable for Day 3 transfers of time-lapse monitored embryos originating from different culture conditions and fertilization methods be developed for the purpose of supporting the embryologist's decision on which embryo to transfer back to the patient in assisted reproduction? SUMMARY ANSWER The algorithm presented here can be used independently of culture conditions and fertilization method and provides predictive power not surpassed by other published algorithms for ranking embryos according to their blastocyst formation potential. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Generally applicable algorithms have so far been developed only for predicting blastocyst formation. A number of clinics have reported validated implantation prediction algorithms, which have been developed based on clinic-specific culture conditions and clinical environment. However, a generally applicable embryo evaluation algorithm based on actual implantation outcome has not yet been reported. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION Retrospective evaluation of data extracted from a database of known implantation data (KID) originating from 3275 embryos transferred on Day 3 conducted in 24 clinics between 2009 and 2014. The data represented different culture conditions (reduced and ambient oxygen with various culture medium strategies) and fertilization methods (IVF, ICSI). The capability to predict blastocyst formation was evaluated on an independent set of morphokinetic data from 11 218 embryos which had been cultured to Day 5. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The algorithm was developed by applying automated recursive partitioning to a large number of annotation types and derived equations, progressing to a five-fold cross-validation test of the complete data set and a validation test of different incubation conditions and fertilization methods. The results were expressed as receiver operating characteristics curves using the area under the

  20. Towards prediction of heatwaves based on the complementary relationship between actual and potential evaporation - energy partitioning and hydrologic attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Or, D.; Aminzadeh, M.; Roderick, M. L.

    2017-12-01

    Prediction of extreme climate events such as heatwaves that are characterized by prolonged periods of high air temperatures (accompanied by low precipitation and high radiation) provides an opportunity to potentially mitigate the associated environmental, social and economic impacts. Vegetation may respond to these extreme conditions by reducing evaporative flux either due to soil water depletion or inability to meet the atmospheric evaporative demand (high canopy resistance). We implement a newly generalized Complementary Relationship (CR) for spatially heterogeneous land surfaces to predict the actual evaporation from drying landscapes covered by different vegetation types (i.e., grassland and forest). A strong correlation between air temperature and sensible heat flux anomalies identified from FLUXNET network data suggests that abrupt changes in sensible heat flux above climatological means can serve as indicators for predicting the onset of a heatwave. We thus capitalize on the inherent coupling between evaporative and sensible heat fluxes linked to moisture availability within the CR framework to predict rapid increase in regional sensible heat flux associated with soil drying (low precipitation) or with extreme evaporative demand (high radiation) while soil moisture is not limiting. The proposed approach evaluated using FLUXNET datasets provides an energy constraint framework based on the CR concept to obtain new insights into the onset of heatwaves and climate extremes such as regional droughts.

  1. A scientometric prediction of the discovery of the first potentially habitable planet with a mass similar to Earth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Arbesman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The search for a habitable extrasolar planet has long interested scientists, but only recently have the tools become available to search for such planets. In the past decades, the number of known extrasolar planets has ballooned into the hundreds, and with it, the expectation that the discovery of the first Earth-like extrasolar planet is not far off. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we develop a novel metric of habitability for discovered planets and use this to arrive at a prediction for when the first habitable planet will be discovered. Using a bootstrap analysis of currently discovered exoplanets, we predict the discovery of the first Earth-like planet to be announced in the first half of 2011, with the likeliest date being early May 2011. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our predictions, using only the properties of previously discovered exoplanets, accord well with external estimates for the discovery of the first potentially habitable extrasolar planet and highlight the the usefulness of predictive scientometric techniques to understand the pace of scientific discovery in many fields.

  2. A scientometric prediction of the discovery of the first potentially habitable planet with a mass similar to Earth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbesman, Samuel; Laughlin, Gregory

    2010-10-04

    The search for a habitable extrasolar planet has long interested scientists, but only recently have the tools become available to search for such planets. In the past decades, the number of known extrasolar planets has ballooned into the hundreds, and with it, the expectation that the discovery of the first Earth-like extrasolar planet is not far off. Here, we develop a novel metric of habitability for discovered planets and use this to arrive at a prediction for when the first habitable planet will be discovered. Using a bootstrap analysis of currently discovered exoplanets, we predict the discovery of the first Earth-like planet to be announced in the first half of 2011, with the likeliest date being early May 2011. Our predictions, using only the properties of previously discovered exoplanets, accord well with external estimates for the discovery of the first potentially habitable extrasolar planet and highlight the the usefulness of predictive scientometric techniques to understand the pace of scientific discovery in many fields.

  3. CADRE-SS, an in Silico Tool for Predicting Skin Sensitization Potential Based on Modeling of Molecular Interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostal, Jakub; Voutchkova-Kostal, Adelina

    2016-01-19

    Using computer models to accurately predict toxicity outcomes is considered to be a major challenge. However, state-of-the-art computational chemistry techniques can now be incorporated in predictive models, supported by advances in mechanistic toxicology and the exponential growth of computing resources witnessed over the past decade. The CADRE (Computer-Aided Discovery and REdesign) platform relies on quantum-mechanical modeling of molecular interactions that represent key biochemical triggers in toxicity pathways. Here, we present an external validation exercise for CADRE-SS, a variant developed to predict the skin sensitization potential of commercial chemicals. CADRE-SS is a hybrid model that evaluates skin permeability using Monte Carlo simulations, assigns reactive centers in a molecule and possible biotransformations via expert rules, and determines reactivity with skin proteins via quantum-mechanical modeling. The results were promising with an overall very good concordance of 93% between experimental and predicted values. Comparison to performance metrics yielded by other tools available for this endpoint suggests that CADRE-SS offers distinct advantages for first-round screenings of chemicals and could be used as an in silico alternative to animal tests where permissible by legislative programs.

  4. Predicting Fish Growth Potential and Identifying Water Quality Constraints: A Spatially-Explicit Bioenergetics Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budy, Phaedra; Baker, Matthew; Dahle, Samuel K.

    2011-10-01

    Anthropogenic impairment of water bodies represents a global environmental concern, yet few attempts have successfully linked fish performance to thermal habitat suitability and fewer have distinguished co-varying water quality constraints. We interfaced fish bioenergetics, field measurements, and Thermal Remote Imaging to generate a spatially-explicit, high-resolution surface of fish growth potential, and next employed a structured hypothesis to detect relationships among measures of fish performance and co-varying water quality constraints. Our thermal surface of fish performance captured the amount and spatial-temporal arrangement of thermally-suitable habitat for three focal species in an extremely heterogeneous reservoir, but interpretation of this pattern was initially confounded by seasonal covariation of water residence time and water quality. Subsequent path analysis revealed that in terms of seasonal patterns in growth potential, catfish and walleye responded to temperature, positively and negatively, respectively; crappie and walleye responded to eutrophy (negatively). At the high eutrophy levels observed in this system, some desired fishes appear to suffer from excessive cultural eutrophication within the context of elevated temperatures whereas others appear to be largely unaffected or even enhanced. Our overall findings do not lead to the conclusion that this system is degraded by pollution; however, they do highlight the need to use a sensitive focal species in the process of determining allowable nutrient loading and as integrators of habitat suitability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. We provide an integrated approach useful for quantifying fish growth potential and identifying water quality constraints on fish performance at spatial scales appropriate for whole-system management.

  5. The prediction of airborne and structure-borne noise potential for a tire

    OpenAIRE

    Sakamoto, Nicholas

    2014-01-01

    Tire/pavement interaction noise is a major component of both exterior pass-by noise and vehicle interior noise. The current testing methods for ranking tires from loud to quiet require expensive equipment, multiple tires, and/or long experimental set-up and run times. If a laboratory based off-vehicle test could be used to identify the airborne and structure-borne potential of a tire from its dynamic characteristics, a relative ranking of a large group of tires could be performed at relativel...

  6. Predicting the hepatocarcinogenic potential of alkenylbenzene flavoring agents using toxicogenomics and machine learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auerbach, Scott S.; Shah, Ruchir R.; Mav, Deepak; Smith, Cynthia S.; Walker, Nigel J.; Vallant, Molly K.; Boorman, Gary A.; Irwin, Richard D.

    2010-01-01

    Identification of carcinogenic activity is the primary goal of the 2-year bioassay. The expense of these studies limits the number of chemicals that can be studied and therefore chemicals need to be prioritized based on a variety of parameters. We have developed an ensemble of support vector machine classification models based on male F344 rat liver gene expression following 2, 14 or 90 days of exposure to a collection of hepatocarcinogens (aflatoxin B1, 1-amino-2,4-dibromoanthraquinone, N-nitrosodimethylamine, methyleugenol) and non-hepatocarcinogens (acetaminophen, ascorbic acid, tryptophan). Seven models were generated based on individual exposure durations (2, 14 or 90 days) or a combination of exposures (2 + 14, 2 + 90, 14 + 90 and 2 + 14 + 90 days). All sets of data, with the exception of one yielded models with 0% cross-validation error. Independent validation of the models was performed using expression data from the liver of rats exposed at 2 dose levels to a collection of alkenylbenzene flavoring agents. Depending on the model used and the exposure duration of the test data, independent validation error rates ranged from 47% to 10%. The variable with the most notable effect on independent validation accuracy was exposure duration of the alkenylbenzene test data. All models generally exhibited improved performance as the exposure duration of the alkenylbenzene data increased. The models differentiated between hepatocarcinogenic (estragole and safrole) and non-hepatocarcinogenic (anethole, eugenol and isoeugenol) alkenylbenzenes previously studied in a carcinogenicity bioassay. In the case of safrole the models correctly differentiated between carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic dose levels. The models predict that two alkenylbenzenes not previously assessed in a carcinogenicity bioassay, myristicin and isosafrole, would be weakly hepatocarcinogenic if studied at a dose level of 2 mmol/kg bw/day for 2 years in male F344 rats; therefore suggesting that these

  7. Histone demethylase GASC1 - a potential prognostic and predictive marker in invasive breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berdel, Bozena; Nieminen, Kaisa; Soini, Ylermi; Tengström, Maria; Malinen, Marjo; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Palvimo, Jorma J; Mannermaa, Arto

    2012-01-01

    The histone demethylase GASC1 (JMJD2C) is an epigenetic factor suspected of involvement in development of different cancers, including breast cancer. It is thought to be overexpressed in the more aggressive breast cancer types based on mRNA expression studies on cell lines and meta analysis of human breast cancer sets. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic and predictive value of GASC1 for women with invasive breast cancer. All the 355 cases were selected from a cohort enrolled in the Kuopio Breast Cancer Project between April 1990 and December 1995. The expression of GASC1 was studied by immunohistochemistry (IHC) on tissue microarrays. Additionally relative GASC1 mRNA expression was measured from available 57 cases. In our material, 56% of the cases were GASC1 negative and 44% positive in IHC staining. Women with GASC1 negative tumors had two years shorter breast cancer specific survival and time to relapse than the women with GASC1 positive tumors (p=0.017 and p=0.034 respectively). The majority of GASC1 negative tumors were ductal cases (72%) of higher histological grade (84% of grade II and III altogether). When we evaluated estrogen receptor negative and progesterone receptor negative cases separately, there was 2 times more GASC1 negative than GASC1 positive tumors in each group (chi2, p= 0.033 and 0.001 respectively). In the HER2 positive cases, there was 3 times more GASC1 negative cases than GASC1 positives (chi2, p= 0.029). Patients treated with radiotherapy (n=206) and hormonal treatment (n=62) had better breast cancer specific survival, when they were GASC1 positive (Cox regression: HR=0.49, p=0.007 and HR=0.33, p=0.015, respectively). The expression of GASC1 mRNA was in agreement with the protein analysis. This study indicates that the GASC1 is both a prognostic and a predictive factor for women with invasive breast cancer. GASC1 negativity is associated with tumors of more aggressive histopathological types (ductal type, grade II and III, ER

  8. Rad51 expression levels predict synthetic lethality and metastatic potential in high grade breast cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiegmans, A.P.; Al-Ejeh, F.; Khanna, K.K.

    2012-01-01

    Among women with breast cancer, 30-40% will develop metastatic disease and only achieve an overall survival of less than 5 years. Despite new-targeted therapy, breast tumors that harbour similar histology or molecular phenotype differ in their response to treatment. To uncover potential new therapeutic targets and improve outcome, we performed data mining of cancer micro array databases. We found that high expression of the homologous recombination protein, RAD51, was significantly associated with high-grade breast cancer, aggressive subtypes and increased risk of metastasis. We confirmed using immunohistochemistry that RAD5 1 was highly expressed in metastatic tumours and high-grade triple negative, HER2+ and luminal-B tumours. This provided a rationale for targeting RAD5 1 in high-grade, therapy-resistant breast cancers. Here, we report for the first time preclinical evaluation of RAD5 1 as a therapeutic target. We found that, in-vitro high RAD5 expressing cell lines were resistant to PARP inhibitor while knockdown reversed this resistance. In-vivo, knockdown of RAD5 1 inhibited metastatic progression using a syngeneic breast cancer model and the seeding of human xenografts to distant sites, including brain and lung. Concurrent PARP inhibition reduced primary tumor growth and delayed metastasis supporting synthetic lethality in-vivo. Together these insights provide pre-clinical data demonstrating RAD5 1 as a new biomarker and potential therapeutic target against aggressive metastatic breast cancer. (author)

  9. Groundwater potential prediction by using geoelectricity method a case study in Simpang Lima and around it

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmawati, D. R.; Supriyadi; Aryani, N. P.; Naufal, M. A.

    2018-03-01

    Water is an important natural resource, which is available both on surface as well as in recharge zone of weathered layer and in various other suitable water reservoir formations/structures below the surface. The study was conducted in Semarang City, Indonesian. Simpang Lima area were chosen since they have geology record of thick alluvium. The condition of Simpang Lima and around it which currently has developed into the main business area in Semarang City. This is marked by the presence like hotels, super market, that is more than one. This condition certainly requires a supply of water for various purposes that support economic efforts in the region. During this time the water needs are met by drilling wells and used as much as possible without taking into account the impact of water utilization. This study aims to determine the zones that have the potential existence of groundwater. The method used is Geoelectric method with Shlumberger configuration in 7 distributed spatial point. The results showed that there is a potential groundwater in eastern Pekunden, Erlanga, behind The Hotel Horizon, and Simpang Lima. Groundwater is found successively at an average depth of 15 meters under earth’s surface.

  10. Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: a skill-persistence rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yishuai; Rong, Xinyao; Liu, Zhengyu

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the factors relationship between the forecast skills for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill for sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further proved using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but could be distorted by sampling errors and non-AR1 processes. This study suggests that the so called "perfect skill" is model dependent and cannot serve as an accurate estimate of the true upper limit of real world prediction skill, unless the model can capture at least the persistence property of the observation.

  11. Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Richard J.; Jones, Julie M.; Hanna, Edward; Scaife, Adam A.; Erdélyi, Róbert

    2017-06-01

    The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecasting and mitigate societal, environmental and economic impacts. Here we find that simple linear regression and composite models based on a few predictable factors are able to explain up to 35 % of summertime jet stream speed and latitude variability from 1955 onwards. Sea surface temperature forcings impact predominantly on jet speed, whereas solar and cryospheric forcings appear to influence jet latitude. The cryospheric associations come from the previous autumn, suggesting the survival of an ice-induced signal through the winter season, whereas solar influences lead jet variability by a few years. Regression models covering the earlier part of the twentieth century are much less effective, presumably due to decreased availability of data, and increased uncertainty in observational reanalyses. Wavelet coherence analysis identifies that associations fluctuate over the study period but it is not clear whether this is just internal variability or genuine non-stationarity. Finally we identify areas for future research.

  12. A system for predicting close approaches and potential collisions in geosynchronous orbits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beusch, J.; Abbot, R.; Sridharan, R.

    The geosynchronous orbit is getting crowded with over 300 active, revenue producing large satellites and over 500 inactive dead resident space objects that pose a physical collision threat to the active satellites. The in situ demise of a particular satellite, Telstar 401, followed by a similar demise of SOLIDARIDAD 1, initiated a research and development effort at MIT Lincoln Laboratory to address this threat. This work with commercial satellite operators is accomplished using the mechanism of Cooperative Research and Development Agreements. Initial work to detect and warn of close approaches with these two failed satellites led to more extensive research on the collision threat over the entire geosynchronous belt. It is apparent that: a) There is a significant probability of collision; b) The probability has increased considerably in the last decade or so; c) The continuing failure of geosynchronous satellites and injection of rocket bodies into or near geosynchronous orbit will increase the threat; d) Debris in or near geosynchronous orbit poses another problem that has to be addressed. This paper surveys what has been achieved so far in predicting the threat and protecting satellites. An assessment of the probability of collision is presented as well as a description of the Geosynchronous Monitoring and Warning System. The operations of the GMWS are described as well as some of the results achieved so far. Areas of current research are mentioned.

  13. Dendritic cell migration assay: a potential prediction model for identification of contact allergens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbs, Susan; Spiekstra, Sander; Corsini, Emanuela; McLeod, Julie; Reinders, Judith

    2013-04-01

    This manuscript describes methodology and a prediction model for the MUTZ-LC migration assay. The assay represents the physiological change in Langerhans cell (LC) behavior after exposure to a sensitizing chemical, resulting in LC migration from the epidermis to the dermis. MUTZ-LC are derived from the commercially available MUTZ-3 cell line. Upon exposure to a sensitizer MUTZ-LC migrate preferentially towards CXCL12 whereas upon exposure to a non-sensitizer MUTZ-LC migrate towards CCL5. A CXCL12/CCL5 ratio >1.10 in 2/3 independent experiments is indicative of a sensitizer, whereas a CXCL12/CCL5 ratio ≤1.10 is indicative of a non-sensitizer. At non cytotoxic chemical concentrations 9 sensitizers (2,4-dinitrochlorobenzene, paraphenylendiamine, cinnamaldehyde, isoeugenol, nickel-sulfate, tetramethylthiuram disulfide, eugenol, cinnamic-alcohol, ammonium-hexachloroplatinate) were distinguished from 4 non sensitizers (sodium lauryl sulfate, salicylic acid, phenol, octanoic acid). Critical points in assay performance are (i) MUTZ-3 passage number after thawing (p6-p40); (ii) cell viability (>80%); (iii) standard curve to optimize correlation of fluorescence with cell number; and (iv) optimization of the concentration of rhCXCL12 and rhCCL5 in transwell. The protocol has been tested in three European laboratories and results suggest that it may provide working conditions for performing the DC migration assay which is aimed at distinguishing sensitizers from non sensitizers. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Human AP Endonuclease 1: A Potential Marker for the Prediction of Environmental Carcinogenesis Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Sung Park

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Human apurinic/apyrimidinic endonuclease 1 (APE1 functions mainly in DNA repair as an enzyme removing AP sites and in redox signaling as a coactivator of various transcription factors. Based on these multifunctions of APE1 within cells, numerous studies have reported that the alteration of APE1 could be a crucial factor in development of human diseases such as cancer and neurodegeneration. In fact, the study on the combination of an individual’s genetic make-up with environmental factors (gene-environment interaction is of great importance to understand the development of diseases, especially lethal diseases including cancer. Recent reports have suggested that the human carcinogenic risk following exposure to environmental toxicants is affected by APE1 alterations in terms of gene-environment interactions. In this review, we initially outline the critical APE1 functions in the various intracellular mechanisms including DNA repair and redox regulation and its roles in human diseases. Several findings demonstrate that the change in expression and activity as well as genetic variability of APE1 caused by environmental chemical (e.g., heavy metals and cigarette smoke and physical carcinogens (ultraviolet and ionizing radiation is likely associated with various cancers. These enable us to ultimately suggest APE1 as a vital marker for the prediction of environmental carcinogenesis risk.

  15. Prediction of the contact sensitizing potential of chemicals using analysis of gene expression changes in human THP-1 monocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkusz, Joanna; Stępnik, Maciej; Sobala, Wojciech; Dastych, Jarosław

    2010-11-10

    The aim of this study was to find differentially regulated genes in THP-1 monocytic cells exposed to sensitizers and nonsensitizers and to investigate if such genes could be reliable markers for an in vitro predictive method for the identification of skin sensitizing chemicals. Changes in expression of 35 genes in the THP-1 cell line following treatment with chemicals of different sensitizing potential (from nonsensitizers to extreme sensitizers) were assessed using real-time PCR. Verification of 13 candidate genes by testing a large number of chemicals (an additional 22 sensitizers and 8 nonsensitizers) revealed that prediction of contact sensitization potential was possible based on evaluation of changes in three genes: IL8, HMOX1 and PAIMP1. In total, changes in expression of these genes allowed correct detection of sensitization potential of 21 out of 27 (78%) test sensitizers. The gene expression levels inside potency groups varied and did not allow estimation of sensitization potency of test chemicals. Results of this study indicate that evaluation of changes in expression of proposed biomarkers in THP-1 cells could be a valuable model for preliminary screening of chemicals to discriminate an appreciable majority of sensitizers from nonsensitizers. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Prediction of Potential Fishing Zones for Skipjack Tuna During the Northwest Monsoon Using Remotely Sensed Satellite Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukti Zainuddin

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available One of economically important fish in the Bay of Bone is Skipjack tuna which their distribution and migration are influenced by surrounding environment.  This study aims to investigate the relationship between skipjack tuna and their environments, and to predict potential fishing zones (PFZs for the fish in the Bone Bay-Flores Sea using satellite-based oceanography and catch data. Generalized additive models (GAMs were used to assess the relationship. A generalized linear model(GLM constructed from GAMs was used for prediction. Monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST and chlorophyll-a during the northwest monsoon (December-January together with catch data were used for the year 2012-2013. We used the GAMs to assess the effect of the environment variables on skipjack tuna CPUE (catch per unit effort. The best GLM was selected to predict skipjack tuna abundance.  Results indicated that the highest CPUEs (fish/trip occurred in areas where SST and chlorophyll-a ranged from 29.5°-31.5°C and 0.15 - 0.25 mg m-3, respectively. The PFZs for skipjack were closely related to the spatial distribution of the optimum oceanographic conditions and these mainly developed in three locations, northern area of Bone Bay in December, in the middle area of the bay (4°-5.5°S and 120.5°-121.5°E during January and moved to the Flores Sea in February. The movement of skipjack concentration was consistent with the fishery data.  This suggests that the dynamics of the optimum oceanographic signatures provided a good indicator for predicting feeding grounds as hotspot areas for skipjack tuna in Bone Bay-Flores Sea during northwest monsoon.   Keywords:  skipjack tuna, potential fishing zones, satellite based-oceanographic data, Northwest monsoon

  17. Potentiation of E-4031-induced torsade de pointes by HMR1556 or ATX-II is not predicted by action potential short-term variability or triangulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael, G; Dempster, J; Kane, K A; Coker, S J

    2007-12-01

    Torsade de pointes (TdP) can be induced by a reduction in cardiac repolarizing capacity. The aim of this study was to assess whether IKs blockade or enhancement of INa could potentiate TdP induced by IKr blockade and to investigate whether short-term variability (STV) or triangulation of action potentials preceded TdP. Experiments were performed in open-chest, pentobarbital-anaesthetized, alpha 1-adrenoceptor-stimulated, male New Zealand White rabbits, which received three consecutive i.v. infusions of either the IKr blocker E-4031 (1, 3 and 10 nmol kg(-1) min(-1)), the IKs blocker HMR1556 (25, 75 and 250 nmol kg(-1) min(-1)) or E-4031 and HMR1556 combined. In a second study rabbits received either the same doses of E-4031, the INa enhancer, ATX-II (0.4, 1.2 and 4.0 nmol kg(-1)) or both of these drugs. ECGs and epicardial monophasic action potentials were recorded. HMR1556 alone did not cause TdP but increased E-4031-induced TdP from 25 to 80%. ATX-II alone caused TdP in 38% of rabbits, as did E-4031; 75% of rabbits receiving both drugs had TdP. QT intervals were prolonged by all drugs but the extent of QT prolongation was not related to the occurrence of TdP. No changes in STV were detected and triangulation was only increased after TdP occurred. Giving modulators of ion channels in combination substantially increased TdP but, in this model, neither STV nor triangulation of action potentials could predict TdP.

  18. Cell transformation assays for prediction of carcinogenic potential: state of the science and future research needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creton, Stuart; Aardema, Marilyn J.; Carmichael, Paul L.; Harvey, James S.; Martin, Francis L.; Newbold, Robert F.; O’Donovan, Michael R.; Pant, Kamala; Poth, Albrecht; Sakai, Ayako; Sasaki, Kiyoshi; Scott, Andrew D.; Schechtman, Leonard M.; Shen, Rhine R.; Tanaka, Noriho; Yasaei, Hemad

    2012-01-01

    Cell transformation assays (CTAs) have long been proposed as in vitro methods for the identification of potential chemical carcinogens. Despite showing good correlation with rodent bioassay data, concerns over the subjective nature of using morphological criteria for identifying transformed cells and a lack of understanding of the mechanistic basis of the assays has limited their acceptance for regulatory purposes. However, recent drivers to find alternative carcinogenicity assessment methodologies, such as the Seventh Amendment to the EU Cosmetics Directive, have fuelled renewed interest in CTAs. Research is currently ongoing to improve the objectivity of the assays, reveal the underlying molecular changes leading to transformation and explore the use of novel cell types. The UK NC3Rs held an international workshop in November 2010 to review the current state of the art in this field and provide directions for future research. This paper outlines the key points highlighted at this meeting. PMID:21852270

  19. Maximum recovery potential of human tumor cells may predict clinical outcome in radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weichselbaum, R.R.; Beckett, M.

    1987-01-01

    We studied inherent radiosensitivity/resistance (D0), ability to accumulate sublethal damage (n) and repair of potentially lethal damage (PLDR) in established human tumor cell lines as well as early passage human tumor cell lines derived from patients with known outcome following radiotherapy. Survival 24 hrs after treatment of human tumor cells with X rays in plateau phase cultures is a function of initial damage (D0, n), as well as recovery over 24 hrs (PLDR). A surviving fraction greater than .1 24 hrs following treatment with 7 Gy in plateau phase cultures is associated with tumor cell types (melanoma, osteosarcoma) with a high probability of radiotherapy failure or tumor cells derived from patients who actually failed radiotherapy. Therefore, total cellular recovery following radiation may be an important determinant of radiocurability. Accurate assays of radiotherapy outcome may need to account for all these radiobiological parameters

  20. A GIS model predicting potential distributions of a lineage: a test case on hermit spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

    2012-01-01

    Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive

  1. A GIS model predicting potential distributions of a lineage: a test case on hermit spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Năpăruş

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World, N. livida (Madagascar, N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia, and N. papuana (Australasia. For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range, a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread, and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (subtropics. CONCLUSIONS: Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential

  2. Using Species Distribution Models to Predict Potential Landscape Restoration Effects on Puma Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelieri, Cintia Camila Silva; Adams-Hosking, Christine; Ferraz, Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi de Barros; de Souza, Marcelo Pereira; McAlpine, Clive Alexander

    2016-01-01

    A mosaic of intact native and human-modified vegetation use can provide important habitat for top predators such as the puma (Puma concolor), avoiding negative effects on other species and ecological processes due to cascade trophic interactions. This study investigates the effects of restoration scenarios on the puma's habitat suitability in the most developed Brazilian region (São Paulo State). Species Distribution Models incorporating restoration scenarios were developed using the species' occurrence information to (1) map habitat suitability of pumas in São Paulo State, Southeast, Brazil; (2) test the relative contribution of environmental variables ecologically relevant to the species habitat suitability and (3) project the predicted habitat suitability to future native vegetation restoration scenarios. The Maximum Entropy algorithm was used (Test AUC of 0.84 ± 0.0228) based on seven environmental non-correlated variables and non-autocorrelated presence-only records (n = 342). The percentage of native vegetation (positive influence), elevation (positive influence) and density of roads (negative influence) were considered the most important environmental variables to the model. Model projections to restoration scenarios reflected the high positive relationship between pumas and native vegetation. These projections identified new high suitability areas for pumas (probability of presence >0.5) in highly deforested regions. High suitability areas were increased from 5.3% to 8.5% of the total State extension when the landscapes were restored for ≥ the minimum native vegetation cover rule (20%) established by the Brazilian Forest Code in private lands. This study highlights the importance of a landscape planning approach to improve the conservation outlook for pumas and other species, including not only the establishment and management of protected areas, but also the habitat restoration on private lands. Importantly, the results may inform environmental

  3. Multistep bioassay to predict recolonization potential of emerging parasitoids after a pesticide treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desneux, Nicolas; Ramirez-Romero, Ricardo; Kaiser, Laure

    2006-10-01

    Neurotoxic pyrethroid insecticides are widely used for crop protection, and lethal and sublethal perturbations can be expected in beneficial insects. Under laboratory conditions, the lethal and sublethal effects of deltamethrin on the aphid parasitoid Diaeretiella rapae M'Intosh (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) were studied at the mummy stage and in emerging adults. Following a multistep bioassay, analyses were aimed at evaluating the effects of deltamethrin at various crucial steps in the recolonization process following a deltamethrin treatment: Parasitoid pupal development (emergence from the mummies), adult survival, and host-searching capacity. A four-armed olfactometer was used to investigate the effect of deltamethrin on host-searching behavior (a range of concentrations causing 0.4-79.4% mortality was tested), and a Potter tower was used to test the deltamethrin effect with a realistic application method (four concentrations were tested: 0.5, 5.0, 6.25, and 50 g active ingredient [a.i.]/ha). Deltamethrin reduced the percentage of emergence from mummies, but only when exposed to the 50 g a.i./ha concentration. However, for all concentrations tested, the insecticide induced a decrease in longevity after emergence from sprayed mummies and significant adult mortality when parasitoids walked on fresh residues on leaves. Indices were defined and predicted a high mortality and, thus, reduction of recolonization capacities. However, deltamethrin had no effect on orientation behavior toward aphid-infested plants for adults that survived a residual exposure to the insecticide. The impact of deltamethrin on recolonization via pupal emergence and interest in the methodology used are discussed.

  4. Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Keliang; Yao, Linjun; Meng, Jiasong; Tao, Jun

    2018-09-01

    Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. delavayi and P. rockii by Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas for P. delavayi and P. rockii encompassed ca. 4.46×10 5 km 2 and 1.89×10 5 km 2 , respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shaping P. delavayi distribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shaping P. rockii distribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of P. delavayi decreased while P. rockii increased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. The potential biomarkers in predicting pathologic response of breast cancer to three different chemotherapy regimens: a case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Chaoyang

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Preoperative chemotherapy (PCT has become the standard of care in locally advanced breast cancer. The identification of patient-specific tumor characteristics that can improve the ability to predict response to therapy would help optimize treatment, improve treatment outcomes, and avoid unnecessary exposure to potential toxicities. This study is to determine whether selected biomarkers could predict pathologic response (PR of breast tumors to three different PCT regimens, and to identify a subset of patients who would benefit from a given type of treatment. Methods 118 patients with primary breast tumor were identified and three PCT regimens including DEC (docetaxel+epirubicin+cyclophosphamide, VFC (vinorelbine/vincristine+5-fluorouracil+cyclophosphamide and EFC (epirubicin+5-fluorouracil+cyclophosphamide were investigated. Expression of steroid receptors, HER2, P-gp, MRP, GST-pi and Topo-II was evaluated by immunohistochemical scoring on tumor tissues obtained before and after PCT. The PR of breast carcinoma was graded according to Sataloff's classification. Chi square test, logistic regression and Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel assay were performed to determine the association between biomarkers and PR, as well as the effectiveness of each regimen on induction of PR. Results There was a clear-cut correlation between the expression of ER and decreased PR to PCT in all three different regimens (p p Conclusion ER is an independent predictive factor for PR to PCT regimens including DEC, VFC and EFC in primary breast tumors, while HER2 is only predictive for DEC regimen. Expression of PgR, Topo-II, P-gp, MRP and GST-pi are not predictive for PR to any PCT regimens investigated. Results obtained in this clinical study may be helpful for the selection of appropriate treatments for breast cancer patients.

  6. Potential Energy Flexibility for a Hot-Water Based Heating System in Smart Buildings Via Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Awadelrahman M. A.; Zong, Yi; Mihet-Popa, Lucian

    2017-01-01

    This paper studies the potential of shifting the heating energy consumption in a residential building to low price periods based on varying electricity price signals suing Economic Model Predictive Control strategy. The investigated heating system consists of a heat pump incorporated with a hot...... water tank as active thermal energy storage, where two optimization problems are integrated together to optimize both the heat pump electricity consumption and the building heating consumption. A sensitivity analysis for the system flexibility is examined. The results revealed that the proposed...

  7. Assessment of structures and stabilities of defect clusters and surface energies predicted by nine interatomic potentials for UO{sub 2}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taller, Stephen A. [School of Nuclear Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States); Bai, Xian-Ming, E-mail: xianming.bai@inl.gov [Fuels Modeling and Simulation Department, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83415 (United States)

    2013-11-15

    The irradiation in nuclear reactors creates many point defects and defect clusters in uranium dioxide (UO{sub 2}) and their evolution severely degrades the thermal and mechanical properties of the nuclear fuels. Previously many empirical interatomic potentials have been developed for modeling defect production and evolution in UO{sub 2}. However, the properties of defect clusters and extended defects are usually not fitted into these potentials. In this work nine interatomic potentials for UO{sub 2} are examined by using molecular statics and molecular dynamics to assess their applicability in predicting the properties of various types of defect clusters in UO{sub 2}. The binding energies and structures for these defect clusters have been evaluated for each potential. In addition, the surface energies of voids of different radii and (1 1 0) flat surfaces predicted by these potentials are also evaluated. It is found that both good agreement and significant discrepancies exist for these potentials in predicting these properties. For oxygen interstitial clusters, these potentials predict significantly different defect cluster structures and stabilities; For defect clusters consisting of both uranium and oxygen defects, the prediction is in better agreement; The surface energies predicted by these potentials have significant discrepancies, and some of them are much higher than the experimentally measured values. The results from this work can provide insight on interpreting the outcome of atomistic modeling of defect production using these potentials and may provide guidelines for choosing appropriate potential models to study problems of interest in UO{sub 2}.

  8. Predicting the Dispersal Potential of an Invasive Polychaete Pest along a Complex Coastal Biome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Andrew A; Matthee, Conrad A; Loveday, Benjamin R; Simon, Carol A

    2016-10-01

    Boccardia proboscidea is a recently introduced polychaete in South Africa where it is a notorious pest of commercially reared abalone. Populations were originally restricted to abalone farms but a recent exodus into the wild at some localities has raised conservation concerns due to the species' invasive status in other parts of the world. Here, we assessed the dispersal potential of B. proboscidea by using a population genetic and oceanographic modeling approach. Since the worm is in its incipient stages of a potential invasion, we used the closely related Polydora hoplura as a proxy due its similar reproductive strategy and its status as a pest of commercially reared oysters in the country. Populations of P. hoplura were sampled from seven different localities and a section of the mtDNA gene, Cyt b and the intron ATPSa was amplified. A high resolution model of the coastal waters around southern Africa was constructed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System. Larvae were represented by passive drifters that were deployed at specific points along the coast and dispersal was quantified after a 12-month integration period. Our results showed discordance between the genetic and modeling data. There was low genetic structure (Φ = 0.04 for both markers) and no geographic patterning of mtDNA and nDNA haplotypes. However, the dispersal model found limited connectivity around Cape Point-a major phylogeographic barrier on the southern African coast. This discordance was attributed to anthropogenic movement of larvae and adult worms due to vectors such as aquaculture and shipping. As such, we hypothesized that cryptic dispersal could be overestimating genetic connectivity. Though wild populations of B. proboscidea could become isolated due to the Cape Point barrier, anthropogenic movement may play the critical role in facilitating the dispersal and spread of this species on the southern African coast. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the

  9. Auditory evoked potentials: predicting speech therapy outcomes in children with phonological disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Aparecida Leite

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: This study investigated whether neurophysiologic responses (auditory evoked potentials differ between typically developed children and children with phonological disorders and whether these responses are modified in children with phonological disorders after speech therapy. METHODS: The participants included 24 typically developing children (Control Group, mean age: eight years and ten months and 23 children clinically diagnosed with phonological disorders (Study Group, mean age: eight years and eleven months. Additionally, 12 study group children were enrolled in speech therapy (Study Group 1, and 11 were not enrolled in speech therapy (Study Group 2. The subjects were submitted to the following procedures: conventional audiological, auditory brainstem response, auditory middle-latency response, and P300 assessments. All participants presented with normal hearing thresholds. The study group 1 subjects were reassessed after 12 speech therapy sessions, and the study group 2 subjects were reassessed 3 months after the initial assessment. Electrophysiological results were compared between the groups. RESULTS: Latency differences were observed between the groups (the control and study groups regarding the auditory brainstem response and the P300 tests. Additionally, the P300 responses improved in the study group 1 children after speech therapy. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that children with phonological disorders have impaired auditory brainstem and cortical region pathways that may benefit from speech therapy.

  10. Enhanced detection of gametocytes by magnetic deposition microscopy predicts higher potential for Plasmodium falciparum transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zborowski Maciej

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Aggregated haemozoin crystals within malaria-infected erythrocytes confer susceptibility of parasitized cells to a magnetic field. Here the utility of this method for diagnosis of human malaria is evaluated in a malaria-endemic region of Papua New Guinea (PNG. Methods and findings Individuals with Plasmodium falciparum malaria symptoms (n = 55 provided samples for conventional blood smear (CBS and magnetic deposition microscopy (MDM diagnosis. Standard Giemsa staining and light microscopy was performed to evaluate all preparations. Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia observed on MDM slides was consistently higher than parasitaemia observed by (CBS for ring (CBS = 2.6 vs. MDM = 3.4%; t-test P-value = 0.13, trophozoite (CBS = 0.5 vs. MDM = 1.6%; t-test P-value = 0.01, schizont (CBS = 0.003 vs. MDM = 0.1%; t-test P-value = 0.08 and gametocyte (CBS = 0.001 vs. MDM = 0.4%; t-test P-value = 0.0002 parasitaemias. Gametocyte prevalence determined by CBS compared to MDM increased from 7.3% to 45%, respectively. Conclusion MDM increased detection sensitivity of P. falciparum-infected, haemozoin-containing erythrocytes from infected humans while maintaining detection of ring-stage parasites. Gametocyte prevalence five-fold higher than observed by CBS suggests higher malaria transmission potential in PNG endemic sites compared to previous estimates.

  11. Beliefs about the Potential Impacts of Exploiting Non-Timber Forest Products Predict Voluntary Participation in Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantas Brites, Alice; Morsello, Carla

    2017-06-01

    Harvesting and trading non-timber forest products is advocated as a win-win strategy for conservation and development, yet it can produce negative ecological and socioeconomic impacts. Hence, monitoring exploitation outcomes is essential, and participatory monitoring has been suggested to be the most suitable approach. Among possible approaches, participatory monitoring is preferred because it is likely to increase people's awareness and beliefs regarding impacts or potential impacts, thus inducing behavioral changes, although the evidence in this regard is contradictory. We therefore evaluated whether people's beliefs about the potential ecological and socioeconomic impacts of non-timber forest product exploitation increased their likelihood of volunteering to monitor. We studied a community of forest inhabitants in the Brazilian Amazon who harvested and traded a commercially important non-timber forest product. Two methods of data gathering were employed: (i) a survey of 166 adults (51 households) to evaluate people's beliefs and their stated intention to engage in four different monitoring tasks and (ii) four pilot monitoring tasks to evaluate who actually participated. Based on mixed-effects regressions, the results indicated that beliefs regarding both types of impacts could predict participation in certain tasks, although gender, age and schooling were occasionally stronger predictors. On average, people had stronger beliefs about potential socioeconomic impacts than about potential ecological impacts, with the former also predicting participation in ecological data gathering. This finding reinforces the importance of monitoring both types of impacts to help achieve the win-win outcomes originally proposed by non-timber forest product trade initiatives.

  12. A predictive model of iron oxide nanoparticles flocculation tuning Z-potential in aqueous environment for biological application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldassarre, Francesca; Cacciola, Matteo; Ciccarella, Giuseppe

    2015-01-01

    Iron oxide nanoparticles are the most used magnetic nanoparticles in biomedical and biotechnological field because of their nontoxicity respect to the other metals. The investigation of iron oxide nanoparticles behaviour in aqueous environment is important for the biological applications in terms of polydispersity, mobility, cellular uptake and response to the external magnetic field. Iron oxide nanoparticles tend to agglomerate in aqueous solutions; thus, the stabilisation and aggregation could be modified tuning the colloids physical proprieties. Surfactants or polymers are often used to avoid agglomeration and increase nanoparticles stability. We have modelled and synthesised iron oxide nanoparticles through a co-precipitation method, in order to study the influence of surfactants and coatings on the aggregation state. Thus, we compared experimental results to simulation model data. The change of Z-potential and the clusters size were determined by Dynamic Light Scattering. We developed a suitable numerical model to predict the flocculation. The effects of Volume Mean Diameter and fractal dimension were explored in the model. We obtained the trend of these parameters tuning the Z-potential. These curves matched with the experimental results and confirmed the goodness of the model. Subsequently, we exploited the model to study the influence of nanoparticles aggregation and stability by Z-potential and external magnetic field. The highest Z-potential is reached up with a small external magnetic influence, a small aggregation and then a high suspension stability. Thus, we obtained a predictive model of Iron oxide nanoparticles flocculation that will be exploited for the nanoparticles engineering and experimental setup of bioassays

  13. A predictive model of iron oxide nanoparticles flocculation tuning Z-potential in aqueous environment for biological application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldassarre, Francesca, E-mail: francesca.baldassarre@unisalento.it [University of Salento, Department of Cultural Heritage (Italy); Cacciola, Matteo, E-mail: matteo.cacciola@unirc.it [University “Mediterranea” of Reggio Calabria, DICEAM (Italy); Ciccarella, Giuseppe, E-mail: giuseppe.ciccarella@unisalento.it [University of Salento, Department of Innovation Engineering (Italy)

    2015-09-15

    Iron oxide nanoparticles are the most used magnetic nanoparticles in biomedical and biotechnological field because of their nontoxicity respect to the other metals. The investigation of iron oxide nanoparticles behaviour in aqueous environment is important for the biological applications in terms of polydispersity, mobility, cellular uptake and response to the external magnetic field. Iron oxide nanoparticles tend to agglomerate in aqueous solutions; thus, the stabilisation and aggregation could be modified tuning the colloids physical proprieties. Surfactants or polymers are often used to avoid agglomeration and increase nanoparticles stability. We have modelled and synthesised iron oxide nanoparticles through a co-precipitation method, in order to study the influence of surfactants and coatings on the aggregation state. Thus, we compared experimental results to simulation model data. The change of Z-potential and the clusters size were determined by Dynamic Light Scattering. We developed a suitable numerical model to predict the flocculation. The effects of Volume Mean Diameter and fractal dimension were explored in the model. We obtained the trend of these parameters tuning the Z-potential. These curves matched with the experimental results and confirmed the goodness of the model. Subsequently, we exploited the model to study the influence of nanoparticles aggregation and stability by Z-potential and external magnetic field. The highest Z-potential is reached up with a small external magnetic influence, a small aggregation and then a high suspension stability. Thus, we obtained a predictive model of Iron oxide nanoparticles flocculation that will be exploited for the nanoparticles engineering and experimental setup of bioassays.

  14. Potential value of PTEN in predicting cetuximab response in colorectal cancer: An exploratory study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Razis, Evangelia; Galanidi, Eleni; Bai, Maria; Gikonti, Ioanna; Koukouma, Alona; Kafiri, Georgia; Papakostas, Pavlos; Kalogeras, Konstantine T; Kosmidis, Paris; Fountzilas, George; Briasoulis, Evangelos; Vrettou, Eleni; Skarlos, Dimosthenis V; Papamichael, Dimitrios; Kostopoulos, Ioannis; Samantas, Epaminontas; Xanthakis, Ioannis; Bobos, Mattheos

    2008-01-01

    The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is over-expressed in 70–75% of colorectal adenocarcinomas (CRC). The anti-EGFR monoclonal antibody cetuximab has been approved for the treatment of metastatic CRC, however tumor response to cetuximab has not been found to be associated with EGFR over-expression by immunohistochemistry (IHC). The aim of this study was to explore EGFR and the downstream effector phosphatase and tensin homologue deleted on chromosome 10 (PTEN) as potential predictors of response to cetuximab. CRC patients treated with cetuximab by the Hellenic Cooperative Oncology group, whose formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor tissue was available, were included. Tissue was tested for EGFR and PTEN by IHC and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Eighty-eight patients were identified and 72 were included based on the availability of tissue blocks with adequate material for analysis on them. All patients, except one, received cetuximab in combination with chemotherapy. Median follow-up was 53 months from diagnosis and 17 months from cetuximab initiation. At the time of the analysis 53% of the patients had died. Best response was complete response in one and partial response in 23 patients. In 16 patients disease stabilized. Lack of PTEN gene amplification was associated with more responses to cetuximab and longer time to progression (p = 0.042). PTEN could be one of the molecular determinants of cetuximab response. Due to the heterogeneity of the population and the retrospective nature of the study, our results are hypothesis generating and should be approached with caution. Further prospective studies are needed to validate this finding

  15. The potential role for use of mitochondrial DNA copy number as predictive biomarker in presbycusis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falah, Masoumeh; Houshmand, Massoud; Najafi, Mohammad; Balali, Maryam; Mahmoudian, Saeid; Asghari, Alimohamad; Emamdjomeh, Hessamaldin; Farhadi, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    Age-related hearing impairment, or presbycusis, is the most common communication disorder and neurodegenerative disease in the elderly. Its prevalence is expected to increase, due to the trend of growth of the elderly population. The current diagnostic test for detection of presbycusis is implemented after there has been a change in hearing sensitivity. Identification of a pre-diagnostic biomarker would raise the possibility of preserving hearing sensitivity before damage occurs. Mitochondrial dysfunction, including the production of reactive oxygen species and induction of expression of apoptotic genes, participates in the progression of presbycusis. Mitochondrial DNA sequence variation has a critical role in presbycusis. However, the nature of the relationship between mitochondrial DNA copy number, an important biomarker in many other diseases, and presbycusis is undetermined. Fifty-four subjects with presbycusis and 29 healthy controls were selected after ear, nose, throat examination and pure-tone audiometry. DNA was extracted from peripheral blood samples. The copy number of mitochondrial DNA relative to the nuclear genome was measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Subjects with presbycusis had a lower median mitochondrial DNA copy number than healthy subjects and the difference was statistically significant ( P =0.007). Mitochondrial DNA copy number was also significantly associated with degree of hearing impairment ( P =0.025) and audiogram configuration ( P =0.022). The findings of this study suggest that lower mitochondrial DNA copy number is responsible for presbycusis through alteration of mitochondrial function. Moreover, the significant association of mitochondrial DNA copy number in peripheral blood samples with the degree of hearing impairment and audiogram configuration has potential for use as a standard test for presbycusis, providing the possibility of the development of an easy-to-use biomarker for the early detection of

  16. The potential use of biomarkers in predicting contrast-induced acute kidney injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreucci M

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Michele Andreucci,1 Teresa Faga,1 Eleonora Riccio,2 Massimo Sabbatini,2 Antonio Pisani,2 Ashour Michael,1 1Department of Health Sciences, University “Magna Graecia” of Catanzaro, Catanzaro, 2Department of Public Health, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy Abstract: Contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI is a problem associated with the use of iodinated contrast media, causing kidney dysfunction in patients with preexisting renal failure. It accounts for 12% of all hospital-acquired kidney failure and increases the length of hospitalization, a situation that is worsening with increasing numbers of patients with comorbidities, including those requiring cardiovascular interventional procedures. So far, its diagnosis has relied upon the rise in creatinine levels, which is a late marker of kidney damage and is believed to be inadequate. Therefore, there is an urgent need for biomarkers that can detect CI-AKI sooner and more reliably. In recent years, many new biomarkers have been characterized for AKI, and these are discussed particularly with their use in known CI-AKI models and studies and include neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, cystatin C (Cys-C, kidney injury molecule-1, interleukin-18, N-acetyl-β-d-glucosaminidase, and L-type fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP. The potential of miRNA and metabolomic technology is also mentioned. Early detection of CI-AKI may lead to early intervention and therefore improve patient outcome, and in future any one or a combination of several of these markers together with development in technology for their analysis may prove effective in this respect. Keywords: radiocontrast media, acute renal failure, markers, renal injury

  17. A model for predicting the potential diffusion of solar energy systems in complex urban environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Gennusa, Maria; Lascari, Giovanni; Rizzo, Gianfranco; Scaccianoce, Gianluca; Sorrentino, Giancarlo

    2011-01-01

    The necessity to reduce greenhouse gases emission produced by energy building consumptions and to cut the energy bill (mainly due to the use of fossil sources) leads to the employment of renewable energy sources in new planned scenarios. In particular, more and more often municipal energy and environmental plans pay great attention to the possibilities of employment of the solar technologies at urban scale. Solar thermal and photovoltaic (PV) systems are, by far, the most suitable tools to be utilized in urban areas. Obviously, the proper adoption of such systems in buildings does call for the availability of calculation methods suitable to provide the actual level of exploitation of solar energy in urban layouts. In this work, a procedure for evaluating the geographical energy potential of building roofs in urban areas is proposed; in particular, the amount of surface on the roof that could be used for the installation of systems able to capture solar radiation for the energy production is investigated. The proposed procedure is based on the use of the GIS technology and 3D cartography. The effectiveness of the proposed method is assessed by means of an application to the town of Palermo (Italy). - Highlights: → The GIS techniques allow to analyze various future scenarios about urban planning. → We propose a procedure for assessing the extension of superficial urban areas useable for the installation of solar systems. → This procedure allow to compile a scale of priority of intervention. → The cost for financing such interventions is compared to the penalty to pay for not achieving the Kyoto goals.

  18. Are phantoms useful for predicting the potential of dose reduction in full-field digital mammography?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gennaro, Gisella; Katz, Luc; Souchay, Henri; Alberelli, Claudio; Maggio, Cosimo di

    2005-01-01

    A phantom study was performed in full-field digital mammography to investigate the opportunity and the magnitude of a possible dose reduction that would leave the image quality above the accepted thresholds associated with some classical phantoms. This preliminary work is intended to lay the groundwork for a future clinical study on the impact of dose reduction on clinical results. Three different mammography phantoms (ACR RMI 156, CIRS 11A and CDMAM 3.4) were imaged by a full-field digital mammography unit (GE Senographe 2000D) at different dose levels. Images were rated by three observers with softcopy reading and scoring methods specific to each phantom. Different types of data analysis were applied to the ACR (American College of Radiology) and the other two phantoms, respectively. With reference to the minimum acceptance score in screen/film accreditation programmes, the ACR phantom showed that about 45% dose reduction could be applied, while keeping the phantom scores above that threshold. A relative comparison was done for CIRS and CDMAM, for which no threshold is defined. CIRS scoring remained close to the reference level down to 40% dose reduction, the inter- and intra-observer variability being the main source of uncertainty. Contrast-detail curves provided by CDMAM overlapped down to 50% dose reduction, at least for object contrast values ranging between 30% and 3%. This multi-phantom study shows the potential of further reducing the dose in full-field digital mammography beyond the current values. A common dose reduction factor around 50% seems acceptable for all phantoms. However, caution is required before extrapolating the results for clinical use, given the limitations of these widely used phantoms, mainly related to their limited dynamic range and uniform background

  19. Meta-analysis of the predictive value of DNA aneuploidy in malignant transformation of oral potentially malignant disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaizari, Nader A; Sperandio, Marcelo; Odell, Edward W; Peruzzo, Daiane; Al-Maweri, Sadeq A

    2018-02-01

    DNA aneuploidy is an imbalance of chromosomal DNA content that has been highlighted as a predictor of biological behavior and risk of malignant transformation. To date, DNA aneuploidy in oral potentially malignant diseases (OPMD) has been shown to correlate strongly with severe dysplasia and high-risk lesions that appeared non-dysplastic can be identified by ploidy analysis. Nevertheless, the prognostic value of DNA aneuploidy in predicting malignant transformation of OPMD remains to be validated. The aim of this meta-analysis was to assess the role of DNA aneuploidy in predicting malignant transformation in OPMD. The questions addressed were (i) Is DNA aneuploidy a useful marker to predict malignant transformation in OPMD? (ii) Is DNA diploidy a useful negative marker of malignant transformation in OPMD? These questions were addressed using the PECO method. Five studies assessing aneuploidy as a risk marker of malignant change were pooled into the meta-analysis. Aneuploidy was found to be associated with a 3.12-fold increased risk to progress into cancer (RR=3.12, 95% CI 1.86-5.24). Based on the five studies meta-analyzed, "no malignant progression" was more likely to occur in DNA diploid OPMD by 82% when compared to aneuploidy (RR=0.18, 95% CI 0.08-0.41). In conclusion, aneuploidy is a useful marker of malignant transformation in OPMD, although a diploid result should be interpreted with caution. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Predictive Potential of Twenty-Two Biochemical Biomarkers for Coronary Artery Disease in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edimar Cristiano Pereira

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the potential of a panel of 22 biomarkers to predict the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD in type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2 patients. The study enrolled 96 DM2 patients with (n = 75 and without (n = 21 evidence of CAD. We assessed a biochemical profile that included 22 biomarkers: total cholesterol, LDL, HDL, LDL/HDL, triglycerides, glucose, glycated hemoglobin, fructosamine, homocysteine, cysteine, methionine, reduced glutathione, oxidized glutathione, reduced glutathione/oxidized glutathione, L-arginine, asymmetric dimethyl-L-arginine, symmetric dimethyl-L-arginine, asymmetric dimethyl-L-arginine/L-arginine, nitrate plus nitrite, S-nitrosothiols, nitrotyrosine, and n-acetyl-β-glucosaminidase. Prediction models were built using logistic regression models. We found that eight biomarkers (methionine, nitratate plus nitrite, n-acetyl-β-glucosaminidase, BMI, LDL, HDL, reduced glutathione, and L-arginine/asymmetric dimethyl-L-arginine along with gender and BMI were significantly associated with the odds of CAD in DM2. These preliminary findings support the notion that emerging biochemical markers might be used for CAD prediction in patients with DM2. Our findings warrant further investigation with large, well-designed studies.

  1. An evaluation of the potential of Sentinel 1 for improving flash flood predictions via soil moisture–data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Cenci

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture estimates (soil moisture–data assimilation, SM–DA into hydrological models has the potential to reduce the uncertainty of streamflow simulations. The improved capacity to monitor the closeness to saturation of small catchments, such as those characterizing the Mediterranean region, can be exploited to enhance flash flood predictions. When compared to other microwave sensors that have been exploited for SM–DA in recent years (e.g. the Advanced SCATterometer – ASCAT, characterized by low spatial/high temporal resolution, the Sentinel 1 (S1 mission provides an excellent opportunity to monitor systematically soil moisture (SM at high spatial resolution and moderate temporal resolution. The aim of this research was thus to evaluate the impact of S1-based SM–DA for enhancing flash flood predictions of a hydrological model (Continuum that is currently exploited for civil protection applications in Italy. The analysis was carried out in a representative Mediterranean catchment prone to flash floods, located in north-western Italy, during the time period October 2014–February 2015. It provided some important findings: (i revealing the potential provided by S1-based SM–DA for improving discharge predictions, especially for higher flows; (ii suggesting a more appropriate pre-processing technique to be applied to S1 data before the assimilation; and (iii highlighting that even though high spatial resolution does provide an important contribution in a SM–DA system, the temporal resolution has the most crucial role. S1-derived SM maps are still a relatively new product and, to our knowledge, this is the first work published in an international journal dealing with their assimilation within a hydrological model to improve continuous streamflow simulations and flash flood predictions. Even though the reported results were obtained by analysing a relatively short time period, and thus should be

  2. An evaluation of the potential of Sentinel 1 for improving flash flood predictions via soil moisture-data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Luca; Pulvirenti, Luca; Boni, Giorgio; Chini, Marco; Matgen, Patrick; Gabellani, Simone; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Pierdicca, Nazzareno

    2017-11-01

    The assimilation of satellite-derived soil moisture estimates (soil moisture-data assimilation, SM-DA) into hydrological models has the potential to reduce the uncertainty of streamflow simulations. The improved capacity to monitor the closeness to saturation of small catchments, such as those characterizing the Mediterranean region, can be exploited to enhance flash flood predictions. When compared to other microwave sensors that have been exploited for SM-DA in recent years (e.g. the Advanced SCATterometer - ASCAT), characterized by low spatial/high temporal resolution, the Sentinel 1 (S1) mission provides an excellent opportunity to monitor systematically soil moisture (SM) at high spatial resolution and moderate temporal resolution. The aim of this research was thus to evaluate the impact of S1-based SM-DA for enhancing flash flood predictions of a hydrological model (Continuum) that is currently exploited for civil protection applications in Italy. The analysis was carried out in a representative Mediterranean catchment prone to flash floods, located in north-western Italy, during the time period October 2014-February 2015. It provided some important findings: (i) revealing the potential provided by S1-based SM-DA for improving discharge predictions, especially for higher flows; (ii) suggesting a more appropriate pre-processing technique to be applied to S1 data before the assimilation; and (iii) highlighting that even though high spatial resolution does provide an important contribution in a SM-DA system, the temporal resolution has the most crucial role. S1-derived SM maps are still a relatively new product and, to our knowledge, this is the first work published in an international journal dealing with their assimilation within a hydrological model to improve continuous streamflow simulations and flash flood predictions. Even though the reported results were obtained by analysing a relatively short time period, and thus should be supported by further

  3. The potential of immobilized artificial membrane chromatography to predict human oral absorption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsopelas, Fotios; Vallianatou, Theodosia; Tsantili-Kakoulidou, Anna

    2016-01-01

    The potential of immobilized artificial membrane (IAM) chromatography to estimate human oral absorption (%HOA) was investigated. For this purpose, retention indices on IAM stationary phases reported previously by our group or measured by other authors under similar conditions were used to model %HOA data, compiled from literature sources. Considering the pH gradient in gastrointestinal tract, the highest logkw(IAM) values were considered, obtained either at pH7.4 or 5.5, defined as logkw(IAM)(best). Non linear models were established upon introduction of additional parameters and after exclusion of drugs which are substrates either to efflux or uptake transporters. The best model included Abraham's hydrogen-bond acidity parameter, molecular weight as well as the positively and negatively charged molecular fractions. For reasons of comparison between IAM chromatography and traditional lipophilicity, corresponding models were derived by replacing IAM retention factors with octanol-water distribution coefficients (logD). An overexpression of electrostatic interactions with phosphate anions was observed in the case of IAM retention as expressed by the negative contribution of the positively charged fraction F(+). The same parameter is statistically significant also in the logD model, but with a positive sign, indicating the attraction of basic drugs in the negatively charged inner membrane. To validate the obtained models a blind test set of 22 structurally diverse drugs was used, whose logkw(IAM)(best) values were determined and analyzed in the present study under similar conditions. IAM retention factors were further compared with MDCK cell lines permeability data taken from literature for a set of validation drugs. The overexpression of electrostatic interactions with phosphate anions on IAM surface was also evident in respect to MDCK permeability. In contrast to the clear classification between drugs with high and poor (or intermediate) absorption provided by MDCK

  4. Long-term aerosol climatology over Indo-Gangetic Plain: Trend, prediction and potential source fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, M.; Parmar, K. S.; Kumar, D. B.; Mhawish, A.; Broday, D. M.; Mall, R. K.; Banerjee, T.

    2018-05-01

    Long-term aerosol climatology is derived using Terra MODIS (Collection 6) enhanced Deep Blue (DB) AOD retrieval algorithm to investigate decadal trend (2006-2015) in columnar aerosol loading, future scenarios and potential source fields over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), South Asia. Satellite based aerosol climatology was analyzed in two contexts: for the entire IGP considering area weighted mean AOD and for nine individual stations located at upper (Karachi, Multan, Lahore), central (Delhi, Kanpur, Varanasi, Patna) and lower IGP (Kolkata, Dhaka). A comparatively high aerosol loading (AOD: 0.50 ± 0.25) was evident over IGP with a statistically insignificant increasing trend of 0.002 year-1. Analysis highlights the existing spatial and temporal gradients in aerosol loading with stations over central IGP like Varanasi (decadal mean AOD±SD; 0.67 ± 0.28) and Patna (0.65 ± 0.30) exhibit the highest AOD, followed by stations over lower IGP (Kolkata: 0.58 ± 0.21; Dhaka: 0.60 ± 0.24), with a statistically significant increasing trend (0.0174-0.0206 year-1). In contrast, stations over upper IGP reveal a comparatively low aerosol loading, having an insignificant increasing trend. Variation in AOD across IGP is found to be mainly influenced by seasonality and topography. A distinct "aerosol pool" region over eastern part of Ganges plain is identified, where meteorology, topography, and aerosol sources favor the persistence of airborne particulates. A strong seasonality in aerosol loading and types is also witnessed, with high AOD and dominance of fine particulates over central to lower IGP, especially during post-monsoon and winter. The time series analyses by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) indicate contrasting patterns in randomness of AOD over individual stations with better performance especially over central IGP. Concentration weighted trajectory analyses identify the crucial contributions of western dry regions and partial contributions from

  5. The potential role for use of mitochondrial DNA copy number as predictive biomarker in presbycusis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Falah M

    2016-10-01

    copy number was also significantly associated with degree of hearing impairment (P=0.025 and audiogram configuration (P=0.022.Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that lower mitochondrial DNA copy number is responsible for presbycusis through alteration of mitochondrial function. Moreover, the significant association of mitochondrial DNA copy number in peripheral blood samples with the degree of hearing impairment and audiogram configuration has potential for use as a standard test for presbycusis, providing the possibility of the development of an easy-to-use biomarker for the early detection of this condition. Keywords: age-related hearing impairment, presbycusis, biomarker, mtDNA

  6. Towards single embryo transfer? Modelling clinical outcomes of potential treatment choices using multiple data sources: predictive models and patient perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Sa; McGowan, L; Hirst, Wm; Brison, Dr; Vail, A; Lieberman, Ba

    2010-07-01

    In vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatments involve an egg retrieval process, fertilisation and culture of the resultant embryos in the laboratory, and the transfer of embryos back to the mother over one or more transfer cycles. The first transfer is usually of fresh embryos and the remainder may be cryopreserved for future frozen cycles. Most commonly in UK practice two embryos are transferred (double embryo transfer, DET). IVF techniques have led to an increase in the number of multiple births, carrying an increased risk of maternal and infant morbidity. The UK Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) has adopted a multiple birth minimisation strategy. One way of achieving this would be by increased use of single embryo transfer (SET). To collate cohort data from treatment centres and the HFEA; to develop predictive models for live birth and twinning probabilities from fresh and frozen embryo transfers and predict outcomes from treatment scenarios; to understand patients' perspectives and use the modelling results to investigate the acceptability of twin reduction policies. A multidisciplinary approach was adopted, combining statistical modelling with qualitative exploration of patients' perspectives: interviews were conducted with 27 couples at various stages of IVF treatment at both UK NHS and private clinics; datasets were collated of over 90,000 patients from the HFEA registry and nearly 9000 patients from five clinics, both over the period 2000-5; models were developed to determine live birth and twin outcomes and predict the outcomes of policies for selecting patients for SET or DET in the fresh cycle following egg retrieval and fertilisation, and the predictions were used in simulations of treatments; two focus groups were convened, one NHS and one web based on a patient organisation's website, to present the results of the statistical analyses and explore potential treatment policies. The statistical analysis revealed no characteristics that

  7. No unified reward prediction error in local field potentials from the human nucleus accumbens: evidence from epilepsy patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenner, Max-Philipp; Rutledge, Robb B; Zaehle, Tino; Schmitt, Friedhelm C; Kopitzki, Klaus; Kowski, Alexander B; Voges, Jürgen; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Dolan, Raymond J

    2015-08-01

    Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), cyclic voltammetry, and single-unit electrophysiology studies suggest that signals measured in the nucleus accumbens (Nacc) during value-based decision making represent reward prediction errors (RPEs), the difference between actual and predicted rewards. Here, we studied the precise temporal and spectral pattern of reward-related signals in the human Nacc. We recorded local field potentials (LFPs) from the Nacc of six epilepsy patients during an economic decision-making task. On each trial, patients decided whether to accept or reject a gamble with equal probabilities of a monetary gain or loss. The behavior of four patients was consistent with choices being guided by value expectations. Expected value signals before outcome onset were observed in three of those patients, at varying latencies and with nonoverlapping spectral patterns. Signals after outcome onset were correlated with RPE regressors in all subjects. However, further analysis revealed that these signals were better explained as outcome valence rather than RPE signals, with gamble gains and losses differing in the power of beta oscillations and in evoked response amplitudes. Taken together, our results do not support the idea that postsynaptic potentials in the Nacc represent a RPE that unifies outcome magnitude and prior value expectation. We discuss the generalizability of our findings to healthy individuals and the relation of our results to measurements of RPE signals obtained from the Nacc with other methods. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  8. Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah Slater

    Full Text Available Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF, in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence.

  9. Potential of MR histogram analyses for prediction of response to chemotherapy in patients with colorectal hepatic metastases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, He-Yue; Huang, Ya-Qin; Yang, Zhao-Xia; Ying-Ding; Zeng, Meng-Su; Rao, Sheng-Xiang

    2016-07-01

    To determine if magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) histogram analyses can help predict response to chemotherapy in patients with colorectal hepatic metastases by using response evaluation criteria in solid tumours (RECIST1.1) as the reference standard. Standard MRI including diffusion-weighted imaging (b=0, 500 s/mm(2)) was performed before chemotherapy in 53 patients with colorectal hepatic metastases. Histograms were performed for apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) maps, arterial, and portal venous phase images; thereafter, mean, percentiles (1st, 10th, 50th, 90th, 99th), skewness, kurtosis, and variance were generated. Quantitative histogram parameters were compared between responders (partial and complete response, n=15) and non-responders (progressive and stable disease, n=38). Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) analyses were further analyzed for the significant parameters. The mean, 1st percentile, 10th percentile, 50th percentile, 90th percentile, 99th percentile of the ADC maps were significantly lower in responding group than that in non-responding group (p=0.000-0.002) with area under the ROC curve (AUCs) of 0.76-0.82. The histogram parameters of arterial and portal venous phase showed no significant difference (p>0.05) between the two groups. Histogram-derived parameters for ADC maps seem to be a promising tool for predicting response to chemotherapy in patients with colorectal hepatic metastases. • ADC histogram analyses can potentially predict chemotherapy response in colorectal liver metastases. • Lower histogram-derived parameters (mean, percentiles) for ADC tend to have good response. • MR enhancement histogram analyses are not reliable to predict response.

  10. Computational Redox Potential Predictions: Applications to Inorganic and Organic Aqueous Complexes, and Complexes Adsorbed to Mineral Surfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishnamoorthy Arumugam

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Applications of redox processes range over a number of scientific fields. This review article summarizes the theory behind the calculation of redox potentials in solution for species such as organic compounds, inorganic complexes, actinides, battery materials, and mineral surface-bound-species. Different computational approaches to predict and determine redox potentials of electron transitions are discussed along with their respective pros and cons for the prediction of redox potentials. Subsequently, recommendations are made for certain necessary computational settings required for accurate calculation of redox potentials. This article reviews the importance of computational parameters, such as basis sets, density functional theory (DFT functionals, and relativistic approaches and the role that physicochemical processes play on the shift of redox potentials, such as hydration or spin orbit coupling, and will aid in finding suitable combinations of approaches for different chemical and geochemical applications. Identifying cost-effective and credible computational approaches is essential to benchmark redox potential calculations against experiments. Once a good theoretical approach is found to model the chemistry and thermodynamics of the redox and electron transfer process, this knowledge can be incorporated into models of more complex reaction mechanisms that include diffusion in the solute, surface diffusion, and dehydration, to name a few. This knowledge is important to fully understand the nature of redox processes be it a geochemical process that dictates natural redox reactions or one that is being used for the optimization of a chemical process in industry. In addition, it will help identify materials that will be useful to design catalytic redox agents, to come up with materials to be used for batteries and photovoltaic processes, and to identify new and improved remediation strategies in environmental engineering, for example the

  11. Propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to incorporate severity probabilities in the highway safety manual crash prediction algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasidharan, Lekshmi; Donnell, Eric T

    2014-10-01

    Accurate estimation of the expected number of crashes at different severity levels for entities with and without countermeasures plays a vital role in selecting countermeasures in the framework of the safety management process. The current practice is to use the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials' Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms, which combine safety performance functions and crash modification factors, to estimate the effects of safety countermeasures on different highway and street facility types. Many of these crash prediction algorithms are based solely on crash frequency, or assume that severity outcomes are unchanged when planning for, or implementing, safety countermeasures. Failing to account for the uncertainty associated with crash severity outcomes, and assuming crash severity distributions remain unchanged in safety performance evaluations, limits the utility of the Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms in assessing the effect of safety countermeasures on crash severity. This study demonstrates the application of a propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to estimate the probability distribution for the occurrence of different crash severity levels by accounting for the uncertainties associated with them. The probability of fatal and severe injury crash occurrence at lighted and unlighted intersections is estimated in this paper using data from Minnesota. The results show that the expected probability of occurrence of fatal and severe injury crashes at a lighted intersection was 1 in 35 crashes and the estimated risk ratio indicates that the respective probabilities at an unlighted intersection was 1.14 times higher compared to lighted intersections. The results from the potential outcomes-propensity scores framework are compared to results obtained from traditional binary logit models, without application of propensity scores matching. Traditional binary logit analysis suggests that

  12. Prediction of in vivo neutral detergent fiber digestibility and digestion rate of potentially digestible neutral detergent fiber: comparison of models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huhtanen, P; Seppälä, A; Ahvenjärvi, S; Rinne, M

    2008-10-01

    Eleven 1-pool, seven 2-pool, and three 3-pool models were compared in fitting gas production data and predicting in vivo NDF digestibility and effective first-order digestion rate of potentially digestible NDF (pdNDF). Isolated NDF from 15 grass silages harvested at different stages of maturity was incubated in triplicate in rumen fluid-buffer solution for 72 h to estimate the digestion kinetics from cumulative gas production profiles. In vivo digestibility was estimated by the total fecal collection method in sheep fed at a maintenance level of feeding. The concentration of pdNDF was estimated by a 12-d in situ incubation. The parameter values from gas production profiles and pdNDF were used in a 2-compartment rumen model to predict pdNDF digestibility using 50 h of rumen residence time distributed in a ratio of 0.4:0.6 between the non-escapable and escapable pools. The effective first-order digestion rate was computed both from observed in vivo and model-predicted pdNDF digestibility assuming the passage kinetic model described above. There were marked differences between the models in fitting the gas production data. The fit improved with increasing number of pools, suggesting that silage pdNDF is not a homogenous substrate. Generally, the models predicted in vivo NDF digestibility and digestion rate accurately. However, a good fit of gas production data was not necessarily translated into improved predictions of the in vivo data. The models overestimating the asymptotic gas volumes tended to underestimate the in vivo digestibility. Investigating the time-related residuals during the later phases of fermentation is important when the data are used to estimate the first-order digestion rate of pdNDF. Relatively simple models such as the France model or even a single exponential model with discrete lag period satisfied the minimum criteria for a good model. Further, the comparison of feedstuffs on the basis of parameter values is more unequivocal than in the case

  13. Making oxidation potentials predictable: Coordination of additives applied to the electronic fine tuning of an iron(II) complex

    KAUST Repository

    Haslinger, Stefan

    2014-11-03

    This work examines the impact of axially coordinating additives on the electronic structure of a bioinspired octahedral low-spin iron(II) N-heterocyclic carbene (Fe-NHC) complex. Bearing two labile trans-acetonitrile ligands, the Fe-NHC complex, which is also an excellent oxidation catalyst, is prone to axial ligand exchange. Phosphine- and pyridine-based additives are used for substitution of the acetonitrile ligands. On the basis of the resulting defined complexes, predictability of the oxidation potentials is demonstrated, based on a correlation between cyclic voltammetry experiments and density functional theory calculated molecular orbital energies. Fundamental insights into changes of the electronic properties upon axial ligand exchange and the impact on related attributes will finally lead to target-oriented manipulation of the electronic properties and consequently to the effective tuning of the reactivity of bioinspired systems.

  14. Making oxidation potentials predictable: Coordination of additives applied to the electronic fine tuning of an iron(II) complex

    KAUST Repository

    Haslinger, Stefan; Kü ck, Jens W.; Hahn, Eva M.; Cokoja, Mirza; Pö thig, Alexander; Basset, Jean-Marie; Kü hn, Fritz

    2014-01-01

    This work examines the impact of axially coordinating additives on the electronic structure of a bioinspired octahedral low-spin iron(II) N-heterocyclic carbene (Fe-NHC) complex. Bearing two labile trans-acetonitrile ligands, the Fe-NHC complex, which is also an excellent oxidation catalyst, is prone to axial ligand exchange. Phosphine- and pyridine-based additives are used for substitution of the acetonitrile ligands. On the basis of the resulting defined complexes, predictability of the oxidation potentials is demonstrated, based on a correlation between cyclic voltammetry experiments and density functional theory calculated molecular orbital energies. Fundamental insights into changes of the electronic properties upon axial ligand exchange and the impact on related attributes will finally lead to target-oriented manipulation of the electronic properties and consequently to the effective tuning of the reactivity of bioinspired systems.

  15. Elemental fingerprinting of mussel shells to predict population sources and redistribution potential in the Gulf of Maine.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cascade J B Sorte

    Full Text Available As the climate warms, species that cannot tolerate changing conditions will only persist if they undergo range shifts. Redistribution ability may be particularly variable for benthic marine species that disperse as pelagic larvae in ocean currents. The blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, has recently experienced a warming-related range contraction in the southeastern USA and may face limitations to northward range shifts within the Gulf of Maine where dominant coastal currents flow southward. Thus, blue mussels might be especially vulnerable to warming, and understanding dispersal patterns is crucial given the species' relatively long planktonic larval period (>1 month. To determine whether trace elemental "fingerprints" incorporated in mussel shells could be used to identify population sources (i.e. collection locations, we assessed the geographic variation in shell chemistry of blue mussels collected from seven populations between Cape Cod, Massachusetts and northern Maine. Across this ∼500 km of coastline, we were able to successfully predict population sources for over two-thirds of juvenile individuals, with almost 80% of juveniles classified within one site of their collection location and 97% correctly classified to region. These results indicate that significant differences in elemental signatures of mussel shells exist between open-coast sites separated by ∼50 km throughout the Gulf of Maine. Our findings suggest that elemental "fingerprinting" is a promising approach for predicting redistribution potential of the blue mussel, an ecologically and economically important species in the region.

  16. Case study on prediction of remaining methane potential of landfilled municipal solid waste by statistical analysis of waste composition data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sel, İlker; Çakmakcı, Mehmet; Özkaya, Bestamin; Suphi Altan, H

    2016-10-01

    Main objective of this study was to develop a statistical model for easier and faster Biochemical Methane Potential (BMP) prediction of landfilled municipal solid waste by analyzing waste composition of excavated samples from 12 sampling points and three waste depths representing different landfilling ages of closed and active sections of a sanitary landfill site located in İstanbul, Turkey. Results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were used as a decision support tool to evaluation and describe the waste composition variables. Four principal component were extracted describing 76% of data set variance. The most effective components were determined as PCB, PO, T, D, W, FM, moisture and BMP for the data set. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) models were built by original compositional data and transformed data to determine differences. It was observed that even residual plots were better for transformed data the R(2) and Adjusted R(2) values were not improved significantly. The best preliminary BMP prediction models consisted of D, W, T and FM waste fractions for both versions of regressions. Adjusted R(2) values of the raw and transformed models were determined as 0.69 and 0.57, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Interplanetary Parameters Leading to Relativistic Electron Enhancement and Persistent Depletion Events at Geosynchronous Orbit and Potential for Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Victor A.; Kim, Hee-Jeong; Lyons, Larry R.; Bortnik, Jacob

    2018-02-01

    We have identified 61 relativistic electron enhancement events and 21 relativistic electron persistent depletion events during 1996 to 2006 from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) 8 and 10 using data from the Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) >2 MeV fluxes. We then performed a superposed epoch time analysis of the events to find the characteristic solar wind parameters that determine the occurrence of such events, using the OMNI database. We found that there are clear differences between the enhancement events and the persistent depletion events, and we used these to establish a set of threshold values in solar wind speed, proton density and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz that can potentially be useful to predict sudden increases in flux. Persistent depletion events are characterized by a low solar wind speed, a sudden increase in proton density that remains elevated for a few days, and a northward turning of IMF Bz shortly after the depletion starts. We have also found that all relativistic electron enhancement or persistent depletion events occur when some geomagnetic disturbance is present, either a coronal mass ejection or a corotational interaction region; however, the storm index, SYM-H, does not show a strong connection with relativistic electron enhancement events or persistent depletion events. We have tested a simple threshold method for predictability of relativistic electron enhancement events using data from GOES 11 for the years 2007-2010 and found that around 90% of large increases in electron fluxes can be identified with this method.

  18. Application of an empirical model in CFD simulations to predict the local high temperature corrosion potential in biomass fired boilers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruber, Thomas; Scharler, Robert; Obernberger, Ingwald

    2015-01-01

    To gain reliable data for the development of an empirical model for the prediction of the local high temperature corrosion potential in biomass fired boilers, online corrosion probe measurements have been carried out. The measurements have been performed in a specially designed fixed bed/drop tube reactor in order to simulate a superheater boiler tube under well-controlled conditions. The investigated boiler steel 13CrMo4-5 is commonly used as steel for superheater tube bundles in biomass fired boilers. Within the test runs the flue gas temperature at the corrosion probe has been varied between 625 °C and 880 °C, while the steel temperature has been varied between 450 °C and 550 °C to simulate typical current and future live steam temperatures of biomass fired steam boilers. To investigate the dependence on the flue gas velocity, variations from 2 m·s −1 to 8 m·s −1 have been considered. The empirical model developed fits the measured data sufficiently well. Therefore, the model has been applied within a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation of flue gas flow and heat transfer to estimate the local corrosion potential of a wood chips fired 38 MW steam boiler. Additionally to the actual state analysis two further simulations have been carried out to investigate the influence of enhanced steam temperatures and a change of the flow direction of the final superheater tube bundle from parallel to counter-flow on the local corrosion potential. - Highlights: • Online corrosion probe measurements in a fixed bed/drop tube reactor. • Development of an empirical corrosion model. • Application of the model in a CFD simulation of flow and heat transfer. • Variation of boundary conditions and their effects on the corrosion potential

  19. Characterization of silver nanoparticles in selected consumer products and its relevance for predicting children’s potential exposures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulve, Nicolle S.; Stefaniak, Aleksandr B.; Vance, Marina E.; Rogers, Kim; Mwilu, Samuel; LeBouf, Ryan F.; Schwegler-Berry, Diane; Willis, Robert; Thomas, Treye A.; Marr, Linsey C.

    2015-01-01

    Due to their antifungal, antibacterial, antiviral, and antimicrobial properties, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are used in consumer products intended for use by children or in the home. Children may be especially affected by the normal use of consumer products because of their physiological functions, developmental stage, and activities and behaviors. Despite much research to date, children’s potential exposures to AgNPs are not well characterized. Our objectives were to characterize selected consumer products containing AgNPs and to use the data to estimate a child’s potential non-dietary ingestion exposure. We identified and cataloged 165 consumer products claiming to contain AgNPs that may be used by or near children or found in the home. Nineteen products (textile, liquid, plastic) were selected for further analysis. We developed a tiered analytical approach to determine silver content, form (particulate or ionic), size, morphology, agglomeration state, and composition. Silver was detected in all products except one sippy cup body. Among products in a given category, silver mass contributions were highly variable and not always uniformly distributed within products, highlighting the need to sample multiple areas of a product. Electron microscopy confirmed the presence of AgNPs. Using this data, a child’s potential non-dietary ingestion exposure to AgNPs when drinking milk formula from a sippy cup is 1.53 μg Ag/kg. Additional research is needed to understand the number and types of consumer products containing silver and the concentrations of silver in these products in order to more accurately predict children’s potential aggregate and cumulative exposures to AgNPs. PMID:25747543

  20. CircRNA-0004904, CircRNA-0001855, and PAPP-A: Potential Novel Biomarkers for the Prediction of Preeclampsia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Jiang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Circular RNAs (circRNAs are transcribed prevalently in the genome; however, their potential roles in multiple cardiovascular diseases, particularly preeclampsia (PE, are not yet well understood. This study investigated the expression profiles of circRNAs and explored circRNA-mediated pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A expression as a potential biomarker for PE before 20 weeks of pregnancy. Methods: A nested case-control two-phase screening/validation study was performed in pregnant women before 20 weeks of gestation (before clinical diagnosis at Guangzhou Women and Children’s Medical Center from 2012 to 2015. In the screening phase, circRNA expression profiles of blood cells were assessed using a human circRNA microarray, which was designed to detect simultaneously 5396 circRNAs, in 5 patients with PE and 5 age- and gestational week-matched controls. In the validation phase, 18 circRNAs in blood cells predicted by bioinformatics tools were validated by quantitative reverse transcription PCR in a cohort of 60 patients (PE and age-, gestational week-, and sample storage time-matched controls. Then, we examined the involvement of circRNAs in PE-related pathways via interactions with miRNAs by multiple bioinformatics approaches. Bioinformatics analysis predicted that hsa_circ_0004904 and hsa_circ_0001855 miRNA sponges directly target PAPP-A. PAPP-A was verified in the serum of the same cohort of patients using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Finally, we combined PAPP-A with circRNAs to create a novel preclinical diagnostic model for PE with logistic regression and evaluated the efficiency of this model with receiver operating curve analysis. Results: Volcano plot analysis using various parameters showed that circRNAs were differentially expressed among both groups (P < 0.01, fold change > 2. In the screening phase, we found that 2178 circRNAs were differentially expressed between the control and PE groups, in

  1. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as a novel-potential marker for predicting prognosis of Bell palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucak, Abdulkadir; Ulu, Sahin; Oruc, Serdar; Yucedag, Fatih; Tekin, Mustafa Said; Karakaya, Fatıma; Aycicek, Abdullah

    2014-07-01

    Bell palsy can be defined as an idiopathic, acute, facial nerve palsy. Although the pathogenesis of Bell palsy is not fully understood, inflammation seems to play important role. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NLR) ratio was defined as a novel potential marker to determine inflammation and it is routinely measured in peripheral blood. Our goal was to investigate the relationship between Bell palsy and inflammation by using NLR. Retrospective study. The 54 patients who were followed up for Bell palsy for a period of 1 to 3 years, along with 45 age- and sex-matched controls, were included in the study. An automated blood cell counter was used for NLR measurements. All patients were treated with prednisone, 1 mg/kg per day with a progressive dose reduction. Patients were classified according to the House-Brackmann grading system at posttreatment period. Those with House-Brackmann grade I and grade II were regarded as satisfactory recovery; and those with House-Brackmann grade III to grade VI were regarded as nonsatisfactory recovery. The mean NLR and neutrophil values in patients with Bell palsy were significantly higher than in the control group (P=0.001 and PBell palsy and its prognosis. Our result suggest that while evaluating Bell palsy patients, NLR might be taken into account as a novel potential marker to predict the patients' prognosis. 3b. © 2013 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  2. Prediction of the bioavailability of potentially toxic elements in freshwaters. Comparison between speciation models and passive samplers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierra, Jordi; Roig, Neus; Giménez Papiol, Gemma; Pérez-Gallego, Elena; Schuhmacher, Marta

    2017-12-15

    The aim of this work is to predict the bioavailability of the Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) Cd, Pb, Hg, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cr and Se in 6 sites within the Ebro River basin. In situ Diffusive gradient in thin-films (DGTs) and classical sampling have been used and compared. The potentially bioavailable fractions of each PTE was estimated by modelling their chemical speciation using three programs (WHAM 7.0, Visual MINTEQ 3.1 and Bio-met), following the suggestions published in recent European regulations. Results of the equilibrium-based models WHAM 7.0 and Visual MINTEQ 3.1 indicate that As, Cd, Ni, Se and Zn, predominate as free metals ions or forming inorganic soluble complexes. Copper, Pb and Hg bioavailability is conditioned by their affinity to dissolved humic substances. According to Visual MINTEQ 3.1, Cr is subjected to redox reactions, being Cr (VI) present (at low concentrations) in the studied rivers. According to Bio-met model, the bioavailability of Cu and Zn is highly influenced by soluble organic matter and water hardness, respectively. For most PTEs, the bioavailability estimated by deploying DGTs in river waters tends to be slightly lower than the estimation obtained with speciation models, since in real conditions more environmental factors take place comparing to the finite number of parameters considered in models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Potential of EnMAP spaceborne imaging spectroscopy for the prediction of common surface soil properties and expected accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chabrillat, Sabine; Foerster, Saskia; Steinberg, Andreas; Stevens, Antoine; Segl, Karl

    2016-04-01

    There is a renewed awareness of the finite nature of the world's soil resources, growing concern about soil security, and significant uncertainties about the carrying capacity of the planet. As a consequence, soil scientists are being challenged to provide regular assessments of soil conditions from local through to global scales. However, only a few countries have the necessary survey and monitoring programs to meet these new needs and existing global data sets are out-of-date. A particular issue is the clear demand for a new area-wide regional to global coverage with accurate, up-to-date, and spatially referenced soil information as expressed by the modeling scientific community, farmers and land users, and policy and decision makers. Soil spectroscopy from remote sensing observations based on studies from the laboratory scale to the airborne scale has been shown to be a proven method for the quantitative prediction of key soil surface properties in local areas for exposed soils in appropriate surface conditions such as low vegetation cover and low water content. With the upcoming launch of the next generation of hyperspectral satellite sensors in the next 3 to 5 years (EnMAP, HISUI, PRISMA, SHALOM), a great potential for the global mapping and monitoring of soil properties is appearing. Nevertheless, the capabilities to extend the soil properties current spectral modeling from local to regional scales are still to be demonstrated using robust methods. In particular, three central questions are at the forefront of research nowadays: a) methodological developments toward improved algorithms and operational tools for the extraction of soil properties, b) up scaling from the laboratory into space domain, and c) demonstration of the potential of upcoming satellite systems and expected accuracy of soil maps. In this study, airborne imaging spectroscopy data from several test sites are used to simulate EnMAP satellite images at 30 m scale. Then, different soil

  4. Application of an Artificial Neural Network to the Prediction of OH Radical Reaction Rate Constants for Evaluating Global Warming Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Thomas C

    2016-03-03

    Rate constants for reactions of chemical compounds with hydroxyl radical are a key quantity used in evaluating the global warming potential of a substance. Experimental determination of these rate constants is essential, but it can also be difficult and time-consuming to produce. High-level quantum chemistry predictions of the rate constant can suffer from the same issues. Therefore, it is valuable to devise estimation schemes that can give reasonable results on a variety of chemical compounds. In this article, the construction and training of an artificial neural network (ANN) for the prediction of rate constants at 298 K for reactions of hydroxyl radical with a diverse set of molecules is described. Input to the ANN consists of counts of the chemical bonds and bends present in the target molecule. The ANN is trained using 792 (•)OH reaction rate constants taken from the NIST Chemical Kinetics Database. The mean unsigned percent error (MUPE) for the training set is 12%, and the MUPE of the testing set is 51%. It is shown that the present methodology yields rate constants of reasonable accuracy for a diverse set of inputs. The results are compared to high-quality literature values and to another estimation scheme. This ANN methodology is expected to be of use in a wide range of applications for which (•)OH reaction rate constants are required. The model uses only information that can be gathered from a 2D representation of the molecule, making the present approach particularly appealing, especially for screening applications.

  5. Prediction of Host-Derived miRNAs with the Potential to Target PVY in Potato Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Muhammad S.; Hafeez, Muhammad N.; Wattoo, Javed I.; Ali, Arfan; Sharif, Muhammad N.; Rashid, Bushra; Tabassum, Bushra; Nasir, Idrees A.

    2016-01-01

    Potato virus Y has emerged as a threatening problem in all potato growing areas around the globe. PVY reduces the yield and quality of potato cultivars. During the last 30 years, significant genetic changes in PVY strains have been observed with an increased incidence associated with crop damage. In the current study, computational approaches were applied to predict Potato derived miRNA targets in the PVY genome. The PVY genome is approximately 9 thousand nucleotides, which transcribes the following 6 genes:CI, NIa, NIb-Pro, HC-Pro, CP, and VPg. A total of 343 mature miRNAs were retrieved from the miRBase database and were examined for their target sequences in PVY genes using the minimum free energy (mfe), minimum folding energy, sequence complementarity and mRNA-miRNA hybridization approaches. The identified potato miRNAs against viral mRNA targets have antiviral activities, leading to translational inhibition by mRNA cleavage and/or mRNA blockage. We found 86 miRNAs targeting the PVY genome at 151 different sites. Moreover, only 36 miRNAs potentially targeted the PVY genome at 101 loci. The CI gene of the PVY genome was targeted by 32 miRNAs followed by the complementarity of 26, 19, 18, 16, and 13 miRNAs. Most importantly, we found 5 miRNAs (miR160a-5p, miR7997b, miR166c-3p, miR399h, and miR5303d) that could target the CI, NIa, NIb-Pro, HC-Pro, CP, and VPg genes of PVY. The predicted miRNAs can be used for the development of PVY-resistant potato crops in the future. PMID:27683585

  6. Prediction of host-derived miRNAs with the potential to target PVY in potato plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Shahzad Iqbal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Potato virus Y has emerged as a threatening problem in all potato growing areas around the globe PVY reduces the yield and quality of potato cultivars. During last 30 years, significant genetic changes in PVY strains have been observed with an increased incidence associated with crop damage. In the current study, computational approaches were applied to predict Potato derived miRNA targets in PVY genome. PVY genome is about 9 thousand nucleotides approximately which transcribes 6 genes CI, NIa, NIb-Pro, HC-Pro, CP and VPg. A total of 343 mature miRNAs were retrieved from miRbase database and searched for their target sequences in PVY genes using minimum free energy (mfe, minimum folding energy, sequence complementarity and mRNA-miRNA hybridization approaches. Identified Potato miRNAs against viral mRNA targets have antiviral activities leading to either translational inhibition by mRNA cleavage/mRNA blockage or both. We have found 86 miRNAs targeting PVY genome at 151 different sites on PVY genome. Moreover, only 36 miRNA potentially targeted the PVY genome at 101 loci. CI gene of PVY genome was targeted by 32 miRNAs followed by complementarity by 26, 19, 18, 16 and 13 miRNAs respectively. Most importantly, we found 5 miRNAs (miR160a-5p, miR7997b, miR166c-3p, miR399h and miR5303d could target CI, NIa, NIb-Pro, HC-Pro, CP and VPg genes of PVY. The predicted miRNAs can be used for development of PVY resistant potato crops in future.

  7. Potential of a Pharmacogenetic-Guided Algorithm to Predict Optimal Warfarin Dosing in a High-Risk Hispanic Patient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dagmar F. Hernandez-Suarez MD

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Deep abdominal vein thrombosis is extremely rare among thrombotic events secondary to the use of contraceptives. A case to illustrate the clinical utility of ethno-specific pharmacogenetic testing in warfarin management of a Hispanic patient is reported. A 37-year-old Hispanic Puerto Rican, non-gravid female with past medical history of abnormal uterine bleeding on hormonal contraceptive therapy was evaluated for abdominal pain. Physical exam was remarkable for unspecific diffuse abdominal tenderness, and general initial laboratory results—including coagulation parameters—were unremarkable. A contrast-enhanced computed tomography showed a massive thrombosis of the main portal, splenic, and superior mesenteric veins. On admission the patient was started on oral anticoagulation therapy with warfarin at 5 mg/day and low-molecular-weight heparin. The prediction of an effective warfarin dose of 7.5 mg/day, estimated by using a recently developed pharmacogenetic-guided algorithm for Caribbean Hispanics, coincided with the actual patient’s warfarin dose to reach the international normalized ratio target. We speculate that the slow rise in patient’s international normalized ratio observed on the initiation of warfarin therapy, the resulting high risk for thromboembolic events, and the required warfarin dose of 7.5 mg/day are attributable in some part to the presence of the NQO1 *2 (g.559C>T, p.P187S polymorphism, which seems to be significantly associated with resistance to warfarin in Hispanics. By adding genotyping results of this novel variant, the predictive model can inform clinicians better about the optimal warfarin dose in Caribbean Hispanics. The results highlight the potential for pharmacogenetic testing of warfarin to improve patient care.

  8. Sea surface salinity and temperature-based predictive modeling of southwestern US winter precipitation: improvements, errors, and potential mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, T.; Schmitt, R. W.; Li, L.

    2017-12-01

    Using 69 years of historical data from 1948-2017, we developed a method to globally search for sea surface salinity (SSS) and temperature (SST) predictors of regional terrestrial precipitation. We then applied this method to build an autumn (SON) SSS and SST-based 3-month lead predictive model of winter (DJF) precipitation in southwestern United States. We also find that SSS-only models perform better than SST-only models. We previously used an arbitrary correlation coefficient (r) threshold, |r| > 0.25, to define SSS and SST predictor polygons for best subset regression of southwestern US winter precipitation; from preliminary sensitivity tests, we find that |r| > 0.18 yields the best models. The observed below-average precipitation (0.69 mm/day) in winter 2015-2016 falls within the 95% confidence interval of the prediction model. However, the model underestimates the anomalous high precipitation (1.78 mm/day) in winter 2016-2017 by more than three-fold. Moisture transport mainly attributed to "pineapple express" atmospheric rivers (ARs) in winter 2016-2017 suggests that the model falls short on a sub-seasonal scale, in which case storms from ARs contribute a significant portion of seasonal terrestrial precipitation. Further, we identify a potential mechanism for long-range SSS and precipitation teleconnections: standing Rossby waves. The heat applied to the atmosphere from anomalous tropical rainfall can generate standing Rossby waves that propagate to higher latitudes. SSS anomalies may be indicative of anomalous tropical rainfall, and by extension, standing Rossby waves that provide the long-range teleconnections.

  9. Biochemical methane potential prediction of plant biomasses: Comparing chemical composition versus near infrared methods and linear versus non-linear models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godin, Bruno; Mayer, Frédéric; Agneessens, Richard; Gerin, Patrick; Dardenne, Pierre; Delfosse, Philippe; Delcarte, Jérôme

    2015-01-01

    The reliability of different models to predict the biochemical methane potential (BMP) of various plant biomasses using a multispecies dataset was compared. The most reliable prediction models of the BMP were those based on the near infrared (NIR) spectrum compared to those based on the chemical composition. The NIR predictions of local (specific regression and non-linear) models were able to estimate quantitatively, rapidly, cheaply and easily the BMP. Such a model could be further used for biomethanation plant management and optimization. The predictions of non-linear models were more reliable compared to those of linear models. The presentation form (green-dried, silage-dried and silage-wet form) of biomasses to the NIR spectrometer did not influence the performances of the NIR prediction models. The accuracy of the BMP method should be improved to enhance further the BMP prediction models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Predicting dredging-associated effects to coral reefs in Apra Harbor, Guam - Part 2: Potential coral effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Deborah Shafer; McManus, John; Richmond, Robert H; King, David B; Gailani, Joe Z; Lackey, Tahirih C; Bryant, Duncan

    2016-03-01

    Coral reefs are in decline worldwide due to anthropogenic stressors including reductions in water and substratum quality. Dredging results in the mobilization of sediments, which can stress and kill corals via increasing turbidity, tissue damage and burial. The Particle Tracking Model (PTM) was applied to predict the potential impacts of dredging-associated sediment exposure on the coral reef ecosystems of Apra Harbor, Guam. The data were interpreted using maps of bathymetry and coral abundance and distribution in conjunction with impact parameters of suspended sediment concentration (turbidity) and sedimentation using defined coral response thresholds. The results are presented using a "stoplight" model of negligible or limited impacts to coral reefs (green), moderate stress from which some corals would be expected to recover while others would not (yellow) and severe stress resulting in mortality (red). The red conditions for sediment deposition rate and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) were defined as values exceeding 25 mg cm(-2) d(-1) over any 30 day window and >20 mg/l for any 18 days in any 90 day period over a column of water greater than 2 m, respectively. The yellow conditions were defined as values >10 mg cm(-2) d(-1) and <25 mg cm(-2) d(-1) over any 30 day period, and as 20% of 3 months' concentration exceeding 10 mg/l for the deposition and SSC, respectively. The model also incorporates the potential for cumulative effects on the assumption that even sub-lethal stress levels can ultimately lead to mortality in a multi-stressor system. This modeling approach can be applied by resource managers and regulatory agencies to support management decisions related to planning, site selection, damage reduction, and compensatory mitigation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  11. Spine Calcium Transients Induced by Synaptically-Evoked Action Potentials Can Predict Synapse Location and Establish Synaptic Democracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meredith, Rhiannon M.; van Ooyen, Arjen

    2012-01-01

    CA1 pyramidal neurons receive hundreds of synaptic inputs at different distances from the soma. Distance-dependent synaptic scaling enables distal and proximal synapses to influence the somatic membrane equally, a phenomenon called “synaptic democracy”. How this is established is unclear. The backpropagating action potential (BAP) is hypothesised to provide distance-dependent information to synapses, allowing synaptic strengths to scale accordingly. Experimental measurements show that a BAP evoked by current injection at the soma causes calcium currents in the apical shaft whose amplitudes decay with distance from the soma. However, in vivo action potentials are not induced by somatic current injection but by synaptic inputs along the dendrites, which creates a different excitable state of the dendrites. Due to technical limitations, it is not possible to study experimentally whether distance information can also be provided by synaptically-evoked BAPs. Therefore we adapted a realistic morphological and electrophysiological model to measure BAP-induced voltage and calcium signals in spines after Schaffer collateral synapse stimulation. We show that peak calcium concentration is highly correlated with soma-synapse distance under a number of physiologically-realistic suprathreshold stimulation regimes and for a range of dendritic morphologies. Peak calcium levels also predicted the attenuation of the EPSP across the dendritic tree. Furthermore, we show that peak calcium can be used to set up a synaptic democracy in a homeostatic manner, whereby synapses regulate their synaptic strength on the basis of the difference between peak calcium and a uniform target value. We conclude that information derived from synaptically-generated BAPs can indicate synapse location and can subsequently be utilised to implement a synaptic democracy. PMID:22719238

  12. Effects of using coding potential, sequence conservation and mRNA structure conservation for predicting pyrroly-sine containing genes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Have, Christian Theil; Zambach, Sine; Christiansen, Henning

    2013-01-01

    for prediction of pyrrolysine incorporating genes in genomes of bacteria and archaea leading to insights about the factors driving pyrrolysine translation and identification of new gene candidates. The method predicts known conserved genes with high recall and predicts several other promising candidates...... for experimental verification. The method is implemented as a computational pipeline which is available on request....

  13. Hydrogeophysical investigation of groundwater potential and aquifer vulnerability prediction in basement complex terrain - A case study from Akure, Southwestern Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akinrinade, Opeyemi J.; Adesina, Rasheed B.

    2016-06-01

    This study provides a model for the prediction of groundwater potential and vulnerability of basement aquifers in parts of Akure, Southwestern Nigeria. Hydrogeophysical surveys involving very-low-frequency electromagnetic (VLF-EM) profiling and electrical resistivity (ER) sounding, as well as evaluation of hydraulic gradient using three-point method, were carried out. Ten VLF-EM reconnaissance survey traverses, with lengths ranging from 55 m to 75 m, at 10 m station separation, and 12 vertical electrical sounding (VES) stations were occupied. Two-dimensional map of the filtered real component reveals areas of high conductivity, indicative of linear features that can serve as a reservoir or conduit for fluid flow. Interpretation of the VES results delineates three to four geoelectric units. Two aquifer zones were identified, with resistivity values in the ranges of 20 Ωm to 310 Ωm and 100 Ωm to 3,000 Ω m, respectively. Transverse resistance, longitudinal conductance, coefficient of anisotropy and hydraulic gradient have values ranging from 318.2 Ωm2 to 1,041.8 Ωm2, 0.11 mhos to 0.39 mhos, 1.04 to 1.74 and 0.017 to 0.05, respectively. The results of this study identified two prospective borehole locations and the optimum position to site the proposed septic system, based on the aquifer's protective capacity and groundwater flow properties.

  14. Developing LED UV fluorescence sensors for online monitoring DOM and predicting DBPs formation potential during water treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wen-Tao; Jin, Jing; Li, Qiang; Wu, Chen-Fei; Lu, Hai; Zhou, Qing; Li, Ai-Min

    2016-04-15

    Online monitoring dissolved organic matter (DOM) is urgent for water treatment management. In this study, high performance size exclusion chromatography with multi-UV absorbance and multi-emission fluorescence scans were applied to spectrally characterize samples from 16 drinking water sources across Yangzi River and Huai River Watersheds. The UV absorbance indices at 254 nm and 280 nm referred to the same DOM components and concentration, and the 280 nm UV light could excite both protein-like and humic-like fluorescence. Hence a novel UV fluorescence sensor was developed out using only one UV280 light-emitting diode (LED) as light source. For all samples, enhanced coagulation was mainly effective for large molecular weight biopolymers; while anion exchange further substantially removed humic substances. During chlorination tests, UVA280 and UVA254 showed similar correlations with yields of disinfection byproducts (DBPs); the humic-like fluorescence obtained from LED sensors correlated well with both trihalomethanes and haloacetic acids yields, while the correlation between protein-like fluorescence and trihalomethanes was relatively poor. Anion exchange exhibited more reduction of DBPs yields as well as UV absorbance and fluorescence signals than enhanced coagulation. The results suggest that the LED UV fluorescence sensors are very promising for online monitoring DOM and predicting DBPs formation potential during water treatment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Prediction of overall persistence and long-range transport potential with multimedia fate models: robustness and sensitivity of results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fenner, Kathrin; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbuehler, Konrad

    2004-01-01

    The hazard indicators persistence (P) and long-range transport potential (LRTP) are used in chemicals assessment to characterize chemicals with regard to the temporal and spatial extent of their environmental exposure. They are often calculated based on the results of multimedia fate models. The environmental and substance-specific input parameters of such models are subject to a range of methodological uncertainties and also influenced by natural variability. We employed probabilistic uncertainty analysis to quantify variance in P and LRTP predictions for chemicals with different partitioning and transport behavior. Variance found in the results is so large that it prevents a clear distinction between chemicals. Additionally, only small improvements are observed when evaluating the results relative to a benchmark chemical. This can be explained by the dominance of substance-specific parameters and the only small direct influence of environmental parameters on P and LRTP as model outcomes. The findings underline the importance of learning how environmental conditions cause variability in substance behavior for improved substance ranking and classification. - Environmental conditions cause variability in substance behavior which need to be considered in chemical ranking schemes

  16. Neurophysiological correlates of response inhibition predict relapse in detoxified alcoholic patients: some preliminary evidence from event-related potentials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petit G

    2014-06-01

    response-inhibition skills that demand greater neural resources. We propose that event-related potentials can be used in conjunction with behavioral data to predict relapse; this would identify patients that need a higher level of neural resources when suppressing a response is requested.Keywords: alcoholism, relapse, response inhibition, go/no-go task, ERPs, P3d 

  17. Application of a GIS-/remote sensing-based approach for predicting groundwater potential zones using a multi-criteria data mining methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogaji, Kehinde Anthony; Lim, Hwee San

    2017-07-01

    This study integrates the application of Dempster-Shafer-driven evidential belief function (DS-EBF) methodology with remote sensing and geographic information system techniques to analyze surface and subsurface data sets for the spatial prediction of groundwater potential in Perak Province, Malaysia. The study used additional data obtained from the records of the groundwater yield rate of approximately 28 bore well locations. The processed surface and subsurface data produced sets of groundwater potential conditioning factors (GPCFs) from which multiple surface hydrologic and subsurface hydrogeologic parameter thematic maps were generated. The bore well location inventories were partitioned randomly into a ratio of 70% (19 wells) for model training to 30% (9 wells) for model testing. Application results of the DS-EBF relationship model algorithms of the surface- and subsurface-based GPCF thematic maps and the bore well locations produced two groundwater potential prediction (GPP) maps based on surface hydrologic and subsurface hydrogeologic characteristics which established that more than 60% of the study area falling within the moderate-high groundwater potential zones and less than 35% falling within the low potential zones. The estimated uncertainty values within the range of 0 to 17% for the predicted potential zones were quantified using the uncertainty algorithm of the model. The validation results of the GPP maps using relative operating characteristic curve method yielded 80 and 68% success rates and 89 and 53% prediction rates for the subsurface hydrogeologic factor (SUHF)- and surface hydrologic factor (SHF)-based GPP maps, respectively. The study results revealed that the SUHF-based GPP map accurately delineated groundwater potential zones better than the SHF-based GPP map. However, significant information on the low degree of uncertainty of the predicted potential zones established the suitability of the two GPP maps for future development of

  18. Niche modeling predictions of the potential distribution of Marmota himalayana, the host animal of plague in Yushu County of Qinghai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Lu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background After the earthquake on 14, April 2010 at Yushu in China, a plague epidemic hosted by Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana became a major public health concern during the reconstruction period. A rapid assessment of the distribution of Himalayan marmot in the area was urgent. The aims of this study were to analyze the relationship between environmental factors and the distribution of burrow systems of the marmot and to predict the distribution of marmots. Methods Two types of marmot burrows (hibernation and temporary in Yushu County were investigated from June to September in 2011. The location of every burrow was recorded with a global positioning system receiver. An ecological niche model was used to determine the relationship between the burrow occurrence data and environmental variables, such as land surface temperature (LST in winter and summer, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI in winter and summer, elevation, and soil type. The predictive accuracies of the models were assessed by the area under the curve of the receiving operator curve. Results The models for hibernation and temporary burrows both performed well. The contribution orders of the variables were LST in winter and soil type, NDVI in winter and elevation for the hibernation burrow model, and LST in summer, NDVI in summer, soil type and elevation in the temporary burrow model. There were non-linear relationships between the probability of burrow presence and LST, NDVI and elevation. LST of 14 and 23 °C, NDVI of 0.22 and 0.60, and 4100 m were inflection points. A substantially higher probability of burrow presence was observed in swamp soil and dark felty soil than in other soil types. The potential area for hibernation burrows was 5696 km2 (37.7 % of Yushu County, and the area for temporary burrows was 7711 km2 (51.0 % of Yushu County. Conclusions The results suggested that marmots preferred warm areas with relatively low altitudes and good

  19. Invader Relative Impact Potential: a new metric to understand and predict the ecological impacts of existing, emerging and future invasive alien species

    OpenAIRE

    Dick, JTA; Laverty, C; Lennon, JJ; Barrios-O'Neill, D; Mensink, PJ; Britton, JR; Medoc, V; Boets, P; Alexander, ME; Taylor, NG; Dunn, AM; Hatcher, MJ; Rosewarne, PJ; Crookes, S; MacIsaac, HJ

    2017-01-01

    1. Predictions of the identities and ecological impacts of invasive alien species are critical for risk assessment, but presently we lack universal and standardized metrics that reliably predict the likelihood and degree of impact of such invaders (i.e. measurable changes in populations of affected species). This need is especially pressing for emerging and potential future invaders that have no invasion history. Such a metric would also ideally apply across diverse taxonomic and trophic gro...

  20. Bathyphotometer bioluminescence potential measurements: A framework for characterizing flow agitators and predicting flow-stimulated bioluminescence intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latz, Michael I.; Rohr, Jim

    2013-07-01

    BBP. This correlation, when further scaled by pipe diameter, effectively predicted bioluminescence intensity in fully developed turbulent flow in a 0.83-cm i.d. pipe. Determining similar correlations between other bathyphotometer flow agitators and flow fields will allow bioluminescence potential measurements to become a more powerful tool for the oceanographic community.

  1. Predicting Crashes Using Traffic Offences. A Meta-Analysis that Examines Potential Bias between Self-Report and Archival Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    af Wåhlberg, Anders; Freeman, James; Watson, Barry; Watson, Angela

    2016-01-01

    Background Traffic offences have been considered an important predictor of crash involvement, and have often been used as a proxy safety variable for crashes. However the association between crashes and offences has never been meta-analysed and the population effect size never established. Research is yet to determine the extent to which this relationship may be spuriously inflated through systematic measurement error, with obvious implications for researchers endeavouring to accurately identify salient factors predictive of crashes. Methodology and Principal Findings Studies yielding a correlation between crashes and traffic offences were collated and a meta-analysis of 144 effects drawn from 99 road safety studies conducted. Potential impact of factors such as age, time period, crash and offence rates, crash severity and data type, sourced from either self-report surveys or archival records, were considered and discussed. After weighting for sample size, an average correlation of r = .18 was observed over the mean time period of 3.2 years. Evidence emerged suggesting the strength of this correlation is decreasing over time. Stronger correlations between crashes and offences were generally found in studies involving younger drivers. Consistent with common method variance effects, a within country analysis found stronger effect sizes in self-reported data even controlling for crash mean. Significance The effectiveness of traffic offences as a proxy for crashes may be limited. Inclusion of elements such as independently validated crash and offence histories or accurate measures of exposure to the road would facilitate a better understanding of the factors that influence crash involvement. PMID:27128093

  2. Potential use of a regional climate model in seasonal tropical cyclone activity predictions in the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Au-Yeung, Andie Y.M.; Chan, Johnny C.L. [City University of Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)

    2012-08-15

    This study investigates the potential use of a regional climate model in forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A modified version of Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) is used to examine the ability of the model to simulate TC genesis and landfalling TC tracks for the active TC season in the western North Pacific. In the model, a TC is identified as a vortex satisfying several conditions, including local maximum relative vorticity at 850 hPa with a value {>=}450 x 10{sup -6} s{sup -1}, and the temperature at 300 hPa being 1 C higher than the average temperature within 15 latitude radius from the TC center. Tracks are traced by following these found vortices. Six-month ensemble (8 members each) simulations are performed for each year from 1982 to 2001 so that the climatology of the model can be compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) observed best-track dataset. The 20-year ensemble experiments show that the RegCM3 can be used to simulate vortices with a wind structure and temperature profile similar to those of real TCs. The model also reproduces tracks very similar to those observed with features like genesis in the tropics, recurvature at higher latitudes and landfall/decay. The similarity of the 500-hPa geopotential height patterns between RegCM3 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis (ERA-40) shows that the model can simulate the subtropical high to a large extent. The simulated climatological monthly spatial distributions as well as the interannual variability of TC occurrence are also similar to the JTWC data. These results imply the possibility of producing seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclones using real-time global climate model predictions as boundary conditions for the RegCM3. (orig.)

  3. Approaches to predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: an example with Armillaria root disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ned B. Klopfenstein; Mee-Sook Kim; John W. Hanna; Bryce A. Richardson; John E. Lundquist

    2009-01-01

    Predicting climate change influences on forest diseases will foster forest management practices that minimize adverse impacts of diseases. Precise locations of accurately identified pathogens and hosts must be documented and spatially referenced to determine which climatic factors influence species distribution. With this information, bioclimatic models can predict the...

  4. Potential consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Leningrad nuclear power plant. Potential release, fallout and predicted impacts on the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nalbandyan, A.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.; Bartnicki, J.; Balonov, M.

    2012-06-01

    The report describes different hypothetical accident scenarios at the Leningrad nuclear power plant for both RBMK and VVER-1200 reactors. The estimated release is combined with different meteorological scenarios to predict possible fallout of radioactive substances in Norway. For a hypothetical catastrophic accident at an RBMK reactor combined with a meteorological worst case scenario, the consequences in Norway could be considerable. Foodstuffs in many regions would be contaminated above the food intervention levels for radioactive cesium in Norway. (Author)

  5. Potential consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Leningrad nuclear power plant. Potential release, fallout and predicted impacts on the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nalbandyan, A.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.; Bartnicki, J.; Balonov, M.

    2012-06-15

    The report describes different hypothetical accident scenarios at the Leningrad nuclear power plant for both RBMK and VVER-1200 reactors. The estimated release is combined with different meteorological scenarios to predict possible fallout of radioactive substances in Norway. For a hypothetical catastrophic accident at an RBMK reactor combined with a meteorological worst case scenario, the consequences in Norway could be considerable. Foodstuffs in many regions would be contaminated above the food intervention levels for radioactive cesium in Norway. (Author)

  6. Galectin-7 as a potential predictive marker of chemo-and/or radio-therapy resistance in oral squamous cell carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsukawa, Sho; Morita, Kei-ichi; Negishi, Ayako; Harada, Hiroyuki; Nakajima, Yusuke; Shimamoto, Hiroaki; Tomioka, Hirofumi; Tanaka, Kae; Ono, Masaya; Yamada, Tesshi; Omura, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Treatment of advanced oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) requires the integration of multimodal approaches. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of tumor sensitivity to preoperative radiotherapy/chemotherapy for OSCC in order to allow oncologists to determine optimum therapeutic strategies without the associated adverse effects. Here, the protein expression profiles of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue samples from 18 OSCC patients, termed learning cases, who received preoperative chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy followed by surgery were analyzed by quantitative proteomics and validated by immunohistochemistry in 68 test cases as well as in the 18 learning cases. We identified galectin-7 as a potential predictive marker of chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy resistance, and the sensitivity and specificity of the galectin-7 prediction score (G7PS) in predicting this resistance was of 96.0% and 39.5%, respectively, in the 68 test cases. The cumulative 5-year disease-specific survival rate was 75.2% in patients with resistant prediction using G7PS and 100% in patients with sensitive prediction. In vitro overexpression of galectin-7 significantly decreased cell viability in OSCC cell line. Therefore, our findings suggest that galectin-7 is a potential predictive marker of chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy resistance in patients with OSCC. Identification of proteins differentially expressed in OSSC samples from patients sensitive or resistant. The samples were processed by LC-MS and analyzed with 2DICAL

  7. THYROSIM App for Education and Research Predicts Potential Health Risks of Over-the-Counter Thyroid Supplements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Simon X; Eisenberg, Marisa; Larsen, P Reed; DiStefano, Joseph

    2016-04-01

    Computer simulation tools for education and research are making increasingly effective use of the Internet and personal devices. To facilitate these activities in endocrinology and metabolism, a mechanistically based simulator of human thyroid hormone and thyrotropin (TSH) regulation dynamics was developed and further validated, and it was implemented as a facile and freely accessible web-based and personal device application: the THYROSIM app. This study elucidates and demonstrates its utility in a research context by exploring key physiological effects of over-the-counter thyroid supplements. THYROSIM has a simple and intuitive user interface for teaching and conducting simulated "what-if" experiments. User-selectable "experimental" test-input dosages (oral, intravenous pulses, intravenous infusions) are represented by animated graphical icons integrated with a cartoon of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis. Simulations of familiar triiodothyronine (T3), thyroxine (T4), and TSH temporal dynamic responses to these exogenous stimuli are reported graphically, along with normal ranges on the same single interface page; and multiple sets of simulated experimental results are superimposable to facilitate comparative analyses. This study shows that THYROSIM accurately reproduces a wide range of published clinical study data reporting hormonal kinetic responses to large and small oral hormone challenges. Simulation examples of partial thyroidectomies and malabsorption illustrate typical usage by optionally changing thyroid gland secretion and/or gut absorption rates--expressed as percentages of normal--as well as additions of oral hormone dosing, all directly on the interface, and visualizing the kinetic responses to these challenges. Classroom and patient education usage--with public health implications--is illustrated by predictive simulated responses to nonprescription thyroid health supplements analyzed previously for T3 and T4 content. Notably, it was found that

  8. Prediction of long-residue properties of potential blends from mathematically mixed infrared spectra of pure crude oils by partial least-squares regression models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Peinder, P.; Visser, T.; Petrauskas, D.D.; Salvatori, F.; Soulimani, F.; Weckhuysen, B.M.

    2009-01-01

    Research has been carried out to determine the feasibility of partial least-squares (PLS) regression models to predict the long-residue (LR) properties of potential blends from infrared (IR) spectra that have been created by linearly co-adding the IR spectra of crude oils. The study is the follow-up

  9. Defensive motivation and attention in anticipation of different types of predictable and unpredictable threat: A startle and event-related potential investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Brady D; Hajcak, Greg

    2017-08-01

    Predictability is an important characteristic of threat that impacts defensive motivation and attentional engagement. Supporting research has primarily focused on actual threat (e.g., shocks), and it is unclear whether the predictability of less intense threat (e.g., unpleasant pictures) similarly affects motivation and attention. The present study utilized a within-subject design and examined defensive motivation (startle reflex and self-reported anxiety) and attention (probe N100 and P300) in anticipation of shocks and unpleasant pictures during a no, predictable, and unpredictable threat task. This study also examined the impact of predictability on the P300 to shocks and late positive potential (LPP) to unpleasant pictures. The startle reflex and self-reported anxiety were increased in anticipation of both types of threat relative to no threat. Furthermore, startle potentiation in anticipation of unpredictable threat was greater for shocks compared to unpleasant pictures, but there was no difference for predictable threat. The probe N100 was enhanced in anticipation of unpredictable threat relative to predictable threat and no threat, and the probe P300 was suppressed in anticipation of predictable and unpredictable threat relative to no threat. These effects did not differ between the shock and unpleasant picture trials. Finally, the P300 and early LPP component were increased in response to unpredictable relative to predictable shocks and unpleasant pictures, respectively. The present study suggests that the unpredictability of unpleasant pictures increases defensive motivation, but to a lesser degree relative to actual threat. Moreover, unpredictability enhances attentional engagement in anticipation of, and in reaction to, both types of threat. © 2017 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  10. Potential Predictability of the Sea-Surface Temperature Forced Equatorial East Africa Short Rains Interannual Variability in the 20th Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahaga, T. K.; Gizaw, G.; Kucharski, F.; Diro, G. T.

    2014-12-01

    In this article, the predictability of the 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) forced East African short rains variability is analyzed using observational data and ensembles of long atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. To our knowledge, such an analysis for the whole 20th century using a series of AGCM ensemble simulations is carried out here for the first time. The physical mechanisms that govern the influence of SST on East African short rains in the model are also investigated. It is found that there is substantial skill in reproducing the East African short rains variability, given that the SSTs are known. Consistent with previous recent studies, it is found that the Indian Ocean and in particular the western pole of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) play a dominant role for the prediction skill, whereas SSTs outside the Indian Ocean play a minor role. The physical mechanism for the influence of the western Indian Ocean on East African rainfall in the model is consistent with previous findings and consists of a gill-type response to a warm (cold) anomaly that induces a westerly(easterly) low-level flow anomaly over equatorial Africa and leads to moisture flux convergence (divergence) over East Africa. On the other hand, a positive El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) anomaly leads to a spatially non-coherent reducing effect over parts of East Africa, but the relationship is not strong enough to provide any predictive skill in our model. The East African short rains prediction skill is also analyzed within a model-derived potential predictability framework and it is shown that the actual prediction skill is broadly consistent with the model potential prediction skill. Low-frequency variations of the prediction skill are mostly related to SSTs outside the Indian Ocean region and are likely due to an increased interference of ENSO with the Indian Ocean influence on East African short rains after the mid-1970s climate shift.

  11. Predicting distribution of Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in East Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clement Nyamunura Mweya

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. Methods: Diverse ecological niche modelling techniques have been developed for this purpose: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Results: Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Conclusion: Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods.

  12. Predicting distribution of Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex, potential vectors of Rift Valley fever virus in relation to disease epidemics in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mweya, Clement Nyamunura; Kimera, Sharadhuli Iddi; Kija, John Bukombe; Mboera, Leonard E G

    2013-01-01

    The East African region has experienced several Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks since the 1930s. The objective of this study was to identify distributions of potential disease vectors in relation to disease epidemics. Understanding disease vector potential distributions is a major concern for disease transmission dynamics. DIVERSE ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING TECHNIQUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED FOR THIS PURPOSE: we present a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach for estimating distributions of potential RVF vectors in un-sampled areas in East Africa. We modelled the distribution of two species of mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens complex) responsible for potential maintenance and amplification of the virus, respectively. Predicted distributions of environmentally suitable areas in East Africa were based on the presence-only occurrence data derived from our entomological study in Ngorongoro District in northern Tanzania. Our model predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates of 90.9% for A. aegypti and 91.6% for C. pipiens complex. Model performance was statistically significantly better than random for both species. Most suitable sites for the two vectors were predicted in central and northwestern Tanzania with previous disease epidemics. Other important risk areas include western Lake Victoria, northern parts of Lake Malawi, and the Rift Valley region of Kenya. Findings from this study show distributions of vectors had biological and epidemiological significance in relation to disease outbreak hotspots, and hence provide guidance for the selection of sampling areas for RVF vectors during inter-epidemic periods.

  13. Radon soil gas measurements in a geological versatile region as basis to improve the prediction of areas with a high radon potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabrt, Franz; Rechberger, Fabian; Schuff, Michael; Seidel, Claudia; Baumgartner, Andreas; Friedmann, Harry; Maringer, Franz Josef

    2014-01-01

    With the aim to predict the radon potential by geological data, radon soil gas measurements were made in a selected region in Styria, Austria. This region is characterised by mean indoor radon potentials of 130-280 Bq m -3 and a high geological diversity. The distribution of the individual measuring sites was selected on the basis of geological aspects and the distribution of area settlements. In this work, the radon soil gas activity concentration and the soil permeability were measured at 100 sites, each with three single measurements. Furthermore, the local dose rate was determined and soil samples were taken at each site to determine the activity concentration of natural radionuclides. During two investigation periods, long-term soil gas radon measurements were made to study the time dependency of the radon activity concentration. All the results will be compared and investigated for correlation among each other to improve the prediction of areas with high radon potential. (authors)

  14. Pathological tremor prediction using surface electromyogram and acceleration: potential use in ‘ON-OFF’ demand driven deep brain stimulator design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Ishita; Graupe, Daniel; Tuninetti, Daniela; Shukla, Pitamber; Slavin, Konstantin V.; Verhagen Metman, Leo; Corcos, Daniel M.

    2013-06-01

    Objective. We present a proof of concept for a novel method of predicting the onset of pathological tremor using non-invasively measured surface electromyogram (sEMG) and acceleration from tremor-affected extremities of patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) and essential tremor (ET). Approach. The tremor prediction algorithm uses a set of spectral (Fourier and wavelet) and nonlinear time series (entropy and recurrence rate) parameters extracted from the non-invasively recorded sEMG and acceleration signals. Main results. The resulting algorithm is shown to successfully predict tremor onset for all 91 trials recorded in 4 PD patients and for all 91 trials recorded in 4 ET patients. The predictor achieves a 100% sensitivity for all trials considered, along with an overall accuracy of 85.7% for all ET trials and 80.2% for all PD trials. By using a Pearson’s chi-square test, the prediction results are shown to significantly differ from a random prediction outcome. Significance. The tremor prediction algorithm can be potentially used for designing the next generation of non-invasive closed-loop predictive ON-OFF controllers for deep brain stimulation (DBS), used for suppressing pathological tremor in such patients. Such a system is based on alternating ON and OFF DBS periods, an incoming tremor being predicted during the time intervals when DBS is OFF, so as to turn DBS back ON. The prediction should be a few seconds before tremor re-appears so that the patient is tremor-free for the entire DBS ON-OFF cycle and the tremor-free DBS OFF interval should be maximized in order to minimize the current injected in the brain and battery usage.

  15. Pathological tremor prediction using surface EMG and acceleration: potential use in “ON-OFF” demand driven deep brain stimulator design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Ishita; Graupe, Daniel; Tuninetti, Daniela; Shukla, Pitamber; Slavin, Konstantin V.; Metman, Leo Verhagen; Corcos, Daniel M.

    2013-01-01

    Objective We present a proof of concept for a novel method of predicting the onset of pathological tremor using non-invasively measured surface electromyogram (sEMG) and acceleration from tremor-affected extremities of patients with Parkinson’s disease (PD) and Essential tremor (ET). Approach The tremor prediction algorithm uses a set of spectral (fourier and wavelet) and non-linear time series (entropy and recurrence rate) parameters extracted from the non-invasively recorded sEMG and acceleration signals. Main results The resulting algorithm is shown to successfully predict tremor onset for all 91 trials recorded in 4 PD patients and for all 91 trials recorded in 4 ET patients. The predictor achieves a 100% sensitivity for all trials considered, along with an overall accuracy of 85.7% for all ET trials and 80.2% for all PD trials. By using a Pearson’s chi-square test, the prediction results are shown to significantly differ from a random prediction outcome. Significance The tremor prediction algorithm can be potentially used for designing the next generation of non-invasive closed-loop predictive ON-OFF controllers for deep brain stimulation (DBS), used for suppressing pathological tremor in such patients. Such a system is based on alternating ON and OFF DBS periods, an incoming tremor being predicted during the time intervals when DBS is OFF, so as to turn DBS back ON. The prediction should be a few seconds before tremor re-appears so that the patient is tremor-free for the entire DBS ON-OFF cycle as well as the tremor-free DBS OFF interval should be maximized in order to minimize the current injected in the brain and battery usage. PMID:23658233

  16. Diverse effects of distance cutoff and residue interval on the performance of distance-dependent atom-pair potential in protein structure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yuangen; Gui, Rong; Liu, Quan; Yi, Ming; Deng, Haiyou

    2017-12-08

    As one of the most successful knowledge-based energy functions, the distance-dependent atom-pair potential is widely used in all aspects of protein structure prediction, including conformational search, model refinement, and model assessment. During the last two decades, great efforts have been made to improve the reference state of the potential, while other factors that also strongly affect the performance of the potential have been relatively less investigated. Based on different distance cutoffs (from 5 to 22 Å) and residue intervals (from 0 to 15) as well as six different reference states, we constructed a series of distance-dependent atom-pair potentials and tested them on several groups of structural decoy sets collected from diverse sources. A comprehensive investigation has been performed to clarify the effects of distance cutoff and residue interval on the potential's performance. Our results provide a new perspective as well as a practical guidance for optimizing distance-dependent statistical potentials. The optimal distance cutoff and residue interval are highly related with the reference state that the potential is based on, the measurements of the potential's performance, and the decoy sets that the potential is applied to. The performance of distance-dependent statistical potential can be significantly improved when the best statistical parameters for the specific application environment are adopted.

  17. Prediction of phonon thermal transport in thin GaAs, InAs and InP nanowires by molecular dynamics simulations: influence of the interatomic potential

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carrete, J; Longo, R C; Gallego, L J, E-mail: jesus.carrete@usc.es [Departamento de Fisica de la Materia Condensada, Facultad de Fisica, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, E-15782 Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

    2011-05-06

    A number of different potentials are currently being used in molecular dynamics simulations of semiconductor nanostructures. Confusion can arise if an inappropriate potential is used. To illustrate this point, we performed direct molecular dynamics simulations to predict the room temperature lattice thermal conductivity {lambda} of thin GaAs, InAs and InP nanowires. In each case, simulations performed using the classical Harrison potential afforded values of {lambda} about an order of magnitude smaller than those obtained using more elaborate potentials (an Abell-Tersoff, as parameterized by Hammerschmidt et al for GaAs and InAs, and a potential of Vashishta type for InP). These results will be a warning to those wishing to use computer simulations to orient the development of quasi-one-dimensional systems as heat sinks or thermoelectric devices.

  18. Potential Impact of a Free Online HIV Treatment Response Prediction System for Reducing Virological Failures and Drug Costs after Antiretroviral Therapy Failure in a Resource-Limited Setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew D. Revell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Antiretroviral drug selection in resource-limited settings is often dictated by strict protocols as part of a public health strategy. The objective of this retrospective study was to examine if the HIV-TRePS online treatment prediction tool could help reduce treatment failure and drug costs in such settings. Methods. The HIV-TRePS computational models were used to predict the probability of response to therapy for 206 cases of treatment change following failure in India. The models were used to identify alternative locally available 3-drug regimens, which were predicted to be effective. The costs of these regimens were compared to those actually used in the clinic. Results. The models predicted the responses to treatment of the cases with an accuracy of 0.64. The models identified alternative drug regimens that were predicted to result in improved virological response and lower costs than those used in the clinic in 85% of the cases. The average annual cost saving was $364 USD per year (41%. Conclusions. Computational models that do not require a genotype can predict and potentially avoid treatment failure and may reduce therapy costs. The use of such a system to guide therapeutic decision-making could confer health economic benefits in resource-limited settings.

  19. Fractionation, analysis, and PCA modeling of properties of four technical lignins for prediction of their application potential in binders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gosselink, R.J.A.; Dam, van J.E.G.; Jong, de E.; Scott, E.L.; Sanders, J.P.M.

    2010-01-01

    Functional properties of technical lignins need to be characterized in more detail to become a higher added value renewable raw material for the chemical industry. The suitability of a lignin from different plants or trees obtained by different technical processes can only be predicted for selected

  20. Comparative analysis of evolutionarily conserved motifs of epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) predicts novel potential therapeutic epitopes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deng, Xiaohong; Zheng, Xuxu; Yang, Huanming

    2014-01-01

    druggable epitopes/targets. We employed the PROSITE Scan to detect structurally conserved motifs and PRINTS to search for linearly conserved motifs of ECD HER2. We found that the epitopes recognized by trastuzumab and pertuzumab are located in the predicted conserved motifs of ECD HER2, supporting our...

  1. Comparison of conventional versus three-dimensional ultrasound in fetal renal pelvis measurement and their potential prediction of neonatal uropathies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duin, L. K.; Nijhuis, J. G.; Scherjon, S. A.; Vossen, M.; Willekes, C.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To establish a threshold value for fetal renal pelvis dilatation measured by automatic volume calculation (SonoAVC) in the third trimester of pregnancy to predict neonatal uropathies, and to compare these results with conventional antero-posterior (AP) measurement, fetal kidney 3D volume

  2. Early changes of placenta-derived messenger RNA in maternal plasma – potential value for preeclampsia prediction?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surugiu Sebastian

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: the pourpose of the study was to determine if there are any differences between placenta derived plasmatic levels of messenger RNA in normal and future preeclamptic pregnancies and if these placental transcripts can predict preeclampsia long before clinical onset

  3. Approaches to predicting potential impacts of climate change on forest disease: An example with Armillaria root disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ned B. Klopfenstein; Mee-Sook Kim; John W. Hanna; Bryce A. Richardson; John E. Lundquist

    2011-01-01

    Climate change will likely have dramatic impacts on forest health because many forest trees could become maladapted to climate. Furthermore, climate change will have additional impacts on forest health through changes in the distribution and severity of forest disease. Methods are needed to predict the influence of climate change on forest disease so that appropriate...

  4. Quantitative structure-activity relationships for predicting potential ecological hazard of organic chemicals for use in regulatory risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comber, Mike H I; Walker, John D; Watts, Chris; Hermens, Joop

    2003-08-01

    The use of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) for deriving the predicted no-effect concentration of discrete organic chemicals for the purposes of conducting a regulatory risk assessment in Europe and the United States is described. In the United States, under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), the TSCA Interagency Testing Committee and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) use SARs to estimate the hazards of existing and new chemicals. Within the Existing Substances Regulation in Europe, QSARs may be used for data evaluation, test strategy indications, and the identification and filling of data gaps. To illustrate where and when QSARs may be useful and when their use is more problematic, an example, methyl tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE), is given and the predicted and experimental data are compared. Improvements needed for new QSARs and tools for developing and using QSARs are discussed.

  5. CorVue algorithm efficacy to predict heart failure in real life: Unnecessary and potentially misleading information?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palfy, Julia Anna; Benezet-Mazuecos, Juan; Milla, Juan Martinez; Iglesias, Jose Antonio; de la Vieja, Juan Jose; Sanchez-Borque, Pepa; Miracle, Angel; Rubio, Jose Manuel

    2018-06-01

    Heart failure (HF) hospitalizations have a negative impact on quality of life and imply important costs. Intrathoracic impedance (ITI) variations detected by cardiac devices have been hypothesized to predict HF hospitalizations. Although Optivol™ algorithm (Medtronic) has been widely studied, CorVue™ algorithm (St. Jude Medical) long term efficacy has not been systematically evaluated in a "real life" cohort. CorVue™ was activated in ICD/CRT-D patients to store information about ITI measures. Clinical events (new episodes of HF requiring treatment and hospitalizations) and CorVue™ data were recorded every three months. Appropriate CorVue™ detection for HF was considered if it occurred in the four prior weeks to the clinical event. 53 ICD/CRT-D (26 ICD and 27 CRT-D) patients (67±1 years-old, 79% male) were included. Device position was subcutaneous in 28 patients. At inclusion, mean LVEF was 25±7% and 27 patients (51%) were in NYHA class I, 18 (34%) class II and 8 (15%) class III. After a mean follow-up of 17±9 months, 105 ITI drops alarms were detected in 32 patients (60%). Only six alarms were appropriate (true positive) and required hospitalization. Eighteen patients (34%) presented 25 clinical episodes (12 hospitalizations and 13 ER/ambulatory treatment modifications). Nineteen of these clinical episodes (76%) remained undetected by the CorVue™ (false negative). Sensitivity of CorVue™ resulted in 24%, specificity was 70%, positive predictive value of 6% and negative predictive value of 93%. CorVue™ showed a low sensitivity to predict HF events. Therefore, routinely activation of this algorithm could generate misleading information. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  6. Genome-Wide Locations of Potential Epimutations Associated with Environmentally Induced Epigenetic Transgenerational Inheritance of Disease Using a Sequential Machine Learning Prediction Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, M Muksitul; Holder, Lawrence B; Skinner, Michael K

    2015-01-01

    Environmentally induced epigenetic transgenerational inheritance of disease and phenotypic variation involves germline transmitted epimutations. The primary epimutations identified involve altered differential DNA methylation regions (DMRs). Different environmental toxicants have been shown to promote exposure (i.e., toxicant) specific signatures of germline epimutations. Analysis of genomic features associated with these epimutations identified low-density CpG regions (machine learning computational approach to predict all potential epimutations in the genome. A number of previously identified sperm epimutations were used as training sets. A novel machine learning approach using a sequential combination of Active Learning and Imbalance Class Learner analysis was developed. The transgenerational sperm epimutation analysis identified approximately 50K individual sites with a 1 kb mean size and 3,233 regions that had a minimum of three adjacent sites with a mean size of 3.5 kb. A select number of the most relevant genomic features were identified with the low density CpG deserts being a critical genomic feature of the features selected. A similar independent analysis with transgenerational somatic cell epimutation training sets identified a smaller number of 1,503 regions of genome-wide predicted sites and differences in genomic feature contributions. The predicted genome-wide germline (sperm) epimutations were found to be distinct from the predicted somatic cell epimutations. Validation of the genome-wide germline predicted sites used two recently identified transgenerational sperm epimutation signature sets from the pesticides dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and methoxychlor (MXC) exposure lineage F3 generation. Analysis of this positive validation data set showed a 100% prediction accuracy for all the DDT-MXC sperm epimutations. Observations further elucidate the genomic features associated with transgenerational germline epimutations and identify a genome

  7. Predicting the potential for risky behavior among those "too young" to drink as the result of appealing advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, E W; Knaus, C

    2000-01-01

    A survey of 273 children in Washington state used a predrinking behavior index as a behavioral outcome to assess media effects on precursors to drinking among children for whom alcohol consumption is not yet occurring. It also examined age trends in relevant beliefs and behaviors. Perceptions of advertising desirability, the extent to which it seemed appealing, increased steadily from third to ninth grade, whereas identification with portrayals, the degree to which individuals wanted to emulate portrayals, leveled off after sixth grade. Expectancies, positive social benefits perceived to be associated with drinking alcohol, also increased with age, particularly between sixth and ninth grade. When demographics and grade level were controlled, desirability predicted identification, and both predicted expectancies, which is consistent with media decision-making theory. Expectancies correlated with alcohol predrinking behavior, and expectancies predicted risky behavior, with demographics and grade level controlled. Predrinking behavior and reported risky behavior were correlated. The results provide cross-sectional support for the view that beliefs and desires developing by third grade prime children for future decisions regarding substance use.

  8. Dynamics and Predictive Potential of Antibodies against Insect-Derived Recombinant Leishmania infantum Proteins during Chemotherapy of Naturally Infected Dogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todolí, Felicitat; Galindo, Inmaculada; Gómez-Sebastián, Silvia; Pérez-Filgueira, Mariano; Escribano, José M.; Alberola, Jordi; Rodríguez-Cortés, Alhelí

    2010-01-01

    A predictive marker for the success treatment of canine leishmaniasis is required for the application of a more rational therapy protocol, which must improve the probability of cure and reduce Leishmania resistance to drugs. We investigated the dynamics and predictive value of antibodies against insect-derived recombinant L. infantum proteins rKMPII and rTRYP by using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay with retrospective serum samples from 36 dogs during treatment of canine leishmaniasis. In the entire group of dogs, concentrations of antibodies against rKMPII and rTRYP significantly decreased earlier than concentrations of antibodies against crude total Leishmania antigen (one versus six months), which suggested that the dynamics of antibodies against recombinant proteins may be useful for assessing clinical improvement after treatment. Interestingly, decreases in antibody concentrations against rKMPII occurred earlier in disease-free dogs than in dogs that remain clinically ill one year after beginning of treatment, which suggested that these antibodies may be useful for predicting disease-free survival one year after the beginning of therapy against canine leishmaniasis. PMID:20439957

  9. Using time-to-contact information to assess potential collision modulates both visual and temporal prediction networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer T Coull

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimates of the time-to-contact (TTC of approaching objects are crucial for survival. We used an ecologically valid driving simulation to compare and contrast the neural substrates of egocentric (head-on approach and allocentric (lateral approach TTC tasks in a fully factorial, event-related fMRI design. Compared to colour control tasks, both egocentric and allocentric TTC tasks activated left ventral premotor cortex/frontal operculum and inferior parietal cortex, the same areas that have previously been implicated in temporal attentional orienting. Despite differences in visual and cognitive demands, both TTC and temporal orienting paradigms encourage the use of temporally predictive information to guide behaviour, suggesting these areas may form a core network for temporal prediction. We also demonstrated that the temporal derivative of the perceptual index tau (tau-dot held predictive value for making collision judgements and varied inversely with activity in primary visual cortex (V1. Specifically, V1 activity increased with the increasing likelihood of reporting a collision, suggesting top-down attentional modulation of early visual processing areas as a function of subjective collision. Finally, egocentric viewpoints provoked a response bias for reporting collisions, rather than no-collisions, reflecting increased caution for head-on approaches. Associated increases in SMA activity suggest motor preparation mechanisms were engaged, despite the perceptual nature of the task.

  10. Predicting spring barley yield from variety-specific yield potential, disease resistance and straw length, and from environment-specific disease loads and weed pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergård, Hanne; Kristensen, Kristian; Pinnschmidt, Hans O.

    2008-01-01

    For low-input crop production, well-characterised varieties increase the possibilities of managing diseases and weeds. This analysis aims at developing a framework for analyzing grain yield using external varietal information about disease resistance, weed competitiveness and yield potential and ...... growth habit. Higher grain yield was thus predicted for taller plants under weed pressure. The results are discussed in relation to the model framework, impact of the considered traits and use of information from conventional variety testing in organic cropping systems....

  11. Geo-environmental model for the prediction of potential transmission risk of Dirofilaria in an area with dry climate and extensive irrigated crops. The case of Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simón, Luis; Afonin, Alexandr; López-Díez, Lucía Isabel; González-Miguel, Javier; Morchón, Rodrigo; Carretón, Elena; Montoya-Alonso, José Alberto; Kartashev, Vladimir; Simón, Fernando

    2014-03-01

    Zoonotic filarioses caused by Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens are transmitted by culicid mosquitoes. Therefore Dirofilaria transmission depends on climatic factors like temperature and humidity. In spite of the dry climate of most of the Spanish territory, there are extensive irrigated crops areas providing moist habitats favourable for mosquito breeding. A GIS model to predict the risk of Dirofilaria transmission in Spain, based on temperatures and rainfall data as well as in the distribution of irrigated crops areas, is constructed. The model predicts that potential risk of Dirofilaria transmission exists in all the Spanish territory. Highest transmission risk exists in several areas of Andalucía, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia, Valencia, Aragón and Cataluña, where moderate/high temperatures coincide with extensive irrigated crops. High risk in Balearic Islands and in some points of Canary Islands, is also predicted. The lowest risk is predicted in Northern cold and scarcely or non-irrigated dry Southeastern areas. The existence of irrigations locally increases transmission risk in low rainfall areas of the Spanish territory. The model can contribute to implement rational preventive therapy guidelines in accordance with the transmission characteristics of each local area. Moreover, the use of humidity-related factors could be of interest in future predictions to be performed in countries with similar environmental characteristics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Multiple machine learning based descriptive and predictive workflow for the identification of potential PTP1B inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Sharat; Pandey, Jyotsana; Tamrakar, Akhilesh Kumar; Siddiqi, Mohammad Imran

    2017-01-01

    In insulin and leptin signaling pathway, Protein-Tyrosine Phosphatase 1B (PTP1B) plays a crucial controlling role as a negative regulator, which makes it an attractive therapeutic target for both Type-2 Diabetes (T2D) and obesity. In this work, we have generated classification models by using the inhibition data set of known PTP1B inhibitors to identify new inhibitors of PTP1B utilizing multiple machine learning techniques like naïve Bayesian, random forest, support vector machine and k-nearest neighbors, along with structural fingerprints and selected molecular descriptors. Several models from each algorithm have been constructed and optimized, with the different combination of molecular descriptors and structural fingerprints. For the training and test sets, most of the predictive models showed more than 90% of overall prediction accuracies. The best model was obtained with support vector machine approach and has Matthews Correlation Coefficient of 0.82 for the external test set, which was further employed for the virtual screening of Maybridge small compound database. Five compounds were subsequently selected for experimental assay. Out of these two compounds were found to inhibit PTP1B with significant inhibitory activity in in-vitro inhibition assay. The structural fragments which are important for PTP1B inhibition were identified by naïve Bayesian method and can be further exploited to design new molecules around the identified scaffolds. The descriptive and predictive modeling strategy applied in this study is capable of identifying PTP1B inhibitors from the large compound libraries. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Introduction of an Evaluation Tool to Predict the Probability of Success of Companies: The Innovativeness, Capabilities and Potential Model (ICP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Lewrick

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Successful innovation requires management and in this paper a model to help manage the innovation process is presented. This model can be used to audit the management capability to innovate and to monitor how sales increase is related to innovativeness. The model was developed from a study of companies in the high technology cluster around Munich and validated using statistical procedures. The model was found to be effective at predicting the success or otherwise of the innovation strategy pursued by the company. The use of this model and how it can be used to identify areas for improvement are documented in this paper.

  14. Active surveillance of the aquatic environment for potential prediction, prevention and spread of water borne disease: the cholera paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huq, A.; Colwell, R.

    2011-12-01

    Based on results of ecological and epidemiological studies, occurrence and spread of certain diseases are more fully understood. Cholera is a major waterborne disease, that is relatively easily treatable and clearly preventable, yet tens of thousands die each year worldwide. A dose dependent disease, the infectious dose can vary from 103-106, depending on health status of the victim. Historically, cholera has been shown to spread from person to person. Furthermore, the disease is caused predominantly via ingestion of contaminated water and most of the outbreaks that have been recorded worldwide originated in a coastal region. Using appropriate detection methods, Vibrio cholerae can be isolated from samples collected from ponds, rivers, estuaries, and coastal waters globally. The populations of V. cholerae may vary in numbers during different seasons of the year. It is important to have a clear understanding of the distribution of the causative agent in the environment as such information can assist public health officials in taking action to prevent outbreaks of cholera. Thus an effective monitoring program is critical, particularly in light of climate change with temperature extremes more likely to be occurring. Based on a predictive model and results of ground truth data, temperature has been found to be a factor in the increase of V. cholerae in the environment. Correlation was observed with occurrence of cholera and both temperature and salinity. More recent research indicates additional factors need to be considered in predicting cholera epidemics, including the hydrology and disease dynamics.

  15. Immunoprotective efficacy of Acinetobacter baumannii outer membrane protein, FilF, predicted in silico as a potential vaccine candidate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ravinder eSingh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Acinetobacter baumannii is emerging as a serious nosocomial pathogen with multidrug resistance that has made it difficult to cure and development of efficacious treatment against this pathogen is direly needed. This has led to investigate vaccine approach to prevent and treat A. baumannii infections. In this work, an outer membrane putative pilus assembly protein, FilF, was predicted as vaccine candidate by in silico analysis of A. baumannii proteome and was found to be conserved among the A. baumannii strains. It was cloned and expressed in E. coli BL21(DE3 and purified by Ni-NTA chromatography. Immunization with FilF generated high antibody titer (>64000 and provided 50% protection against a standardized lethal dose (10*8 CFU of A. baumannii in murine pneumonia model. FilF immunization reduced the bacterial load in lungs by 2 and 4 log cycles, 12 and 24 h post infection as compared to adjuvant control; reduced the levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines TNF-α, IL-6, IL-33, IFN-γ and IL-1β significantly and histology of lung tissue supported the data by showing considerably reduced damage and infiltration of neutrophils in lungs. These results demonstrate the in vivo validation of immunoprotective efficacy of a protein predicted as a vaccine candidate by in silico proteomic analysis and open the possibilities for exploration of a large array of uncharacterized proteins.

  16. Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for prediction of insignificant prostate cancer in potential candidates for active surveillance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae Heon; Jeong, Jae Yong; Lee, Sin Woo; Sung, Hyun Hwan; Jeon, Hwang Gyun; Jeong, Byong Chang; Seo, Seong Il; Lee, Hyun Moo; Choi, Han Yong; Jeon, Seong Soo; Kim, Chan Kyo; Park, Byung Kwan

    2015-01-01

    To investigate whether the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) from diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) could help improve the prediction of insignificant prostate cancer in candidates for active surveillance (AS). Enrolled in this retrospective study were 287 AS candidates who underwent DW-MRI before radical prostatectomy. Patients were stratified into two groups; Group A consisted of patients with no visible tumour or a suspected tumour ADC value > 0.830 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec and Group B consisted of patients with a suspected tumour ADC value < 0.830 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec. We compared pathological outcomes in each group. Group A had 243 (84.7 %) patients and Group B had 44 (15.3 %) patients. The proportion of organ-confined Gleason ≤ 6 disease and insignificant prostate cancer was significantly higher in Group A than Group B (61.3 % vs. 38.6 %, p = 0.005 and 47.7 % vs. 25.0 %, p = 0.005, respectively). On multivariate analysis, a high ADC value was the independent predictor of organ-confined Gleason ≤ 6 disease and insignificant prostate cancer (odds ratio = 2.43, p = 0.011 and odds ratio = 2.74, p = 0.009, respectively). Tumour ADC values may be a useful marker for predicting insignificant prostate cancer in candidates for AS. (orig.)

  17. Prediction of greenhouse gas reduction potential in Japanese residential sector by residential energy end-use model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimoda, Yoshiyuki; Yamaguchi, Yukio; Okamura, Tomo; Taniguchi, Ayako; Yamaguchi, Yohei

    2010-01-01

    A model is developed that simulates nationwide energy consumption of the residential sector by considering the diversity of household and building types. Since this model can simulate the energy consumption for each household and building category by dynamic energy use based on the schedule of the occupants' activities and a heating and cooling load calculation model, various kinds of energy-saving policies can be evaluated with considerable accuracy. In addition, the average energy efficiency of major electric appliances used in the residential sector and the percentages of housing insulation levels of existing houses is predicted by the 'stock transition model.' In this paper, energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in the Japanese residential sector until 2025 are predicted. For example, as a business - as-usual (BAU) case, CO 2 emissions will be reduced by 7% from the 1990 level. Also evaluated are mitigation measures such as the energy efficiency standard for home electric appliances, thermal insulation code, reduction of standby power, high-efficiency water heaters, energy-efficient behavior of occupants, and dissemination of photovoltaic panels.

  18. The Theory of Planned Behavior as it predicts potential intention to seek mental health services for depression among college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohon, Lisa M; Cotter, Kelly A; Kravitz, Richard L; Cello, Philip C; Fernandez Y Garcia, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Between 9.5% and 31.3% of college students suffer from depression (American college health association national college health assessment II: reference group executive summary spring 2013. Amer. Coll. Health Assoc. 2013; Eagan K, Stolzenberg EB, Ramirez JJ, Aragon, MC, Suchard, RS, Hurtado S. The American freshman: national norms fall 2014. Higher Educ. Res. Inst.; 2015). Universities need to understand the factors that relate to care-seeking behavior. Across 3 studies, to relate attitudes, social norms, and perceived behavioral control to intention to seek mental health services, and to investigate barriers to care-seeking. University college students (N = 845, 64% female, 26% male, and 10% unspecified). New measures were created in Studies 1 and 2, and were examined using structural equation modeling in Study 3. Partially consistent with the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, I, Fishbein, M. Understanding Attitudes and Predicting Social Behavior. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall; 1980), a model with an excellent fit revealed that more positive attitudes about care and higher perceived behavioral control directly predicted higher intention to seek mental health services. Educating college students about mental health disorders and treatments, enhancing knowledge about available services, and addressing limited access to long-term care might improve treatment rates for students suffering from depression.

  19. Climate and pH predict the potential range of the invasive apple snail (Pomacea insularum in the southeastern United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E Byers

    Full Text Available Predicting the potential range of invasive species is essential for risk assessment, monitoring, and management, and it can also inform us about a species' overall potential invasiveness. However, modeling the distribution of invasive species that have not reached their equilibrium distribution can be problematic for many predictive approaches. We apply the modeling approach of maximum entropy (MaxEnt that is effective with incomplete, presence-only datasets to predict the distribution of the invasive island apple snail, Pomacea insularum. This freshwater snail is native to South America and has been spreading in the USA over the last decade from its initial introductions in Texas and Florida. It has now been documented throughout eight southeastern states. The snail's extensive consumption of aquatic vegetation and ability to accumulate and transmit algal toxins through the food web heighten concerns about its spread. Our model shows that under current climate conditions the snail should remain mostly confined to the coastal plain of the southeastern USA where it is limited by minimum temperature in the coldest month and precipitation in the warmest quarter. Furthermore, low pH waters (pH <5.5 are detrimental to the snail's survival and persistence. Of particular note are low-pH blackwater swamps, especially Okefenokee Swamp in southern Georgia (with a pH below 4 in many areas, which are predicted to preclude the snail's establishment even though many of these areas are well matched climatically. Our results elucidate the factors that affect the regional distribution of P. insularum, while simultaneously presenting a spatial basis for the prediction of its future spread. Furthermore, the model for this species exemplifies that combining climatic and habitat variables is a powerful way to model distributions of invasive species.

  20. Understanding chemical-potential-related transient pore-pressure response to improve real-time borehole (in)stability predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tare, U. A.; Mody, F. K.; Mese, A. I. [Haliburton Energy Services, TX (United States)

    2002-07-01

    In order to develop a real-time wellbore (in)stability modelling capability, experimental work was carried out to investigate the role of the chemical potential of drilling fluids on transient pore pressure and time-dependent rock property alterations of shale formations. Time-dependent alterations in the pore pressure, acoustic and rock properties of formations subjected to compressive tri-axial test were recorded during the experiments involving the Pore Pressure Transmission (PPT) test. Based on the transient pore pressure of shale exposed to the test fluid presented here, the 20 per cent calcium chloride showed a very low membrane efficiency of 4.45 per cent. The need for a thorough understanding of the drilling fluid/shale interaction prior to applying any chemical potential wellbore (in)stability model to real-time drilling operations was emphasized. 9 refs., 5 figs.

  1. Numerical Predictions of Damage and Failure in Carbon Fiber Reinforced Laminates Using a Thermodynamically-Based Work Potential Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineda, Evan Jorge; Waas, Anthony M.

    2013-01-01

    A thermodynamically-based work potential theory for modeling progressive damage and failure in fiber-reinforced laminates is presented. The current, multiple-internal state variable (ISV) formulation, referred to as enhanced Schapery theory (EST), utilizes separate ISVs for modeling the effects of damage and failure. Consistent characteristic lengths are introduced into the formulation to govern the evolution of the failure ISVs. Using the stationarity of the total work potential with respect to each ISV, a set of thermodynamically consistent evolution equations for the ISVs are derived. The theory is implemented into a commercial finite element code. The model is verified against experimental results from two laminated, T800/3900-2 panels containing a central notch and different fiber-orientation stacking sequences. Global load versus displacement, global load versus local strain gage data, and macroscopic failure paths obtained from the models are compared against the experimental results.

  2. Metagenomic Analyses Reveal That Energy Transfer Gene Abundances Can Predict the Syntrophic Potential of Environmental Microbial Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa Oberding

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydrocarbon compounds can be biodegraded by anaerobic microorganisms to form methane through an energetically interdependent metabolic process known as syntrophy. The microorganisms that perform this process as well as the energy transfer mechanisms involved are difficult to study and thus are still poorly understood, especially on an environmental scale. Here, metagenomic data was analyzed for specific clusters of orthologous groups (COGs related to key energy transfer genes thus far identified in syntrophic bacteria, and principal component analysis was used in order to determine whether potentially syntrophic environments could be distinguished using these syntroph related COGs as opposed to universally present COGs. We found that COGs related to hydrogenase and formate dehydrogenase genes were able to distinguish known syntrophic consortia and environments with the potential for syntrophy from non-syntrophic environments, indicating that these COGs could be used as a tool to identify syntrophic hydrocarbon biodegrading environments using metagenomic data.

  3. Total system performance predictions (TSPA-1995) for the potential high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sevougian, S.D.; Andrews, R.W.; McNeish, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    The management and operating contractor for the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, has been recently completed a new performance assessment of the ability of the repository to isolate and contain nuclear waste for long time periods (up to 1,000,000 years). Sensitivity analyses determine the most important physical parameters and processes, using the most current information and models

  4. Predictive Technology Management for the Identification of Future Development Trends and the Maximum Achievable Potential Based on a Quantitative Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Fries

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A company’s ability to find the most profitable technology is based on a precise forecast of achievement potential. Technology Management (TM uses forecasting models to analyse future potentials, e.g. the Gartner Hype Cycle, Arthur D. Little’s technology lifecycle or McKinsey’s S-curve model. All these methods are useful for qualitative analysis in the planning of strategic research and development (R&D expenses. In a new approach, exponential and logistic growth functions are used to identify and quantify characteristic stages of technology development. Innovations from electrical, mechanical and computer engineering are observed and projected until the year 2025. Datasets from different industry sectors are analysed, as the number of active Facebook users worldwide, the tensile yield point of flat bar steel, the number of transistors per unit area on integrated circuits, the fuel efficiency per dimension of passenger cars, and the energy density of Lithium-Ion cells. Results show the period of performance doubling and the forecast for the end of the technological achievement potential. The methodology can help to answer key entrepreneurial questions such as the search for alternatives to applied technologies, as well as identifying the risk of substitution technology.

  5. Performance Prediction of Centrifugal Compressor for Drop-In Testing Using Low Global Warming Potential Alternative Refrigerants and Performance Test Codes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joo Hoon Park

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available As environmental regulations to stall global warming are strengthened around the world, studies using newly developed low global warming potential (GWP alternative refrigerants are increasing. In this study, substitute refrigerants, R-1234ze (E and R-1233zd (E, were used in the centrifugal compressor of an R-134a 2-stage centrifugal chiller with a fixed rotational speed. Performance predictions and thermodynamic analyses of the centrifugal compressor for drop-in testing were performed. A performance prediction method based on the existing ASME PTC-10 performance test code was proposed. The proposed method yielded the expected operating area and operating point of the centrifugal compressor with alternative refrigerants. The thermodynamic performance of the first and second stages of the centrifugal compressor was calculated as the polytropic state. To verify the suitability of the proposed method, the drop-in test results of the two alternative refrigerants were compared. The predicted operating range based on the permissible deviation of ASME PTC-10 confirmed that the temperature difference was very small at the same efficiency. Because the drop-in test of R-1234ze (E was performed within the expected operating range, the centrifugal compressor using R-1234ze (E is considered well predicted. However, the predictions of the operating point and operating range of R-1233zd (E were lower than those of the drop-in test. The proposed performance prediction method will assist in understanding thermodynamic performance at the expected operating point and operating area of a centrifugal compressor using alternative gases based on limited design and structure information.

  6. Application of optical action potentials in human induced pluripotent stem cells-derived cardiomyocytes to predict drug-induced cardiac arrhythmias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, H R; Hortigon-Vinagre, M P; Zamora, V; Kopljar, I; De Bondt, A; Gallacher, D J; Smith, G

    2017-09-01

    Human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hiPS-CMs) are emerging as new and human-relevant source in vitro model for cardiac safety assessment that allow us to investigate a set of 20 reference drugs for predicting cardiac arrhythmogenic liability using optical action potential (oAP) assay. Here, we describe our examination of the oAP measurement using a voltage sensitive dye (Di-4-ANEPPS) to predict adverse compound effects using hiPS-CMs and 20 cardioactive reference compounds. Fluorescence signals were digitized at 10kHz and the records subsequently analyzed off-line. Cells were exposed to 30min incubation to vehicle or compound (n=5/dose, 4 doses/compound) that were blinded to the investigating laboratory. Action potential parameters were measured, including rise time (T rise ) of the optical action potential duration (oAPD). Significant effects on oAPD were sensitively detected with 11 QT-prolonging drugs, while oAPD shortening was observed with I Ca -antagonists, I Kr -activator or ATP-sensitive K + channel (K ATP )-opener. Additionally, the assay detected varied effects induced by 6 different sodium channel blockers. The detection threshold for these drug effects was at or below the published values of free effective therapeutic plasma levels or effective concentrations by other studies. The results of this blinded study indicate that OAP is a sensitive method to accurately detect drug-induced effects (i.e., duration/QT-prolongation, shortening, beat rate, and incidence of early after depolarizations) in hiPS-CMs; therefore, this technique will potentially be useful in predicting drug-induced arrhythmogenic liabilities in early de-risking within the drug discovery phase. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Prediction of dynamic Rankine Cycle waste heat recovery performance and fuel saving potential in passenger car applications considering interactions with vehicles’ energy management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horst, Tilmann Abbe; Tegethoff, Wilhelm; Eilts, Peter; Koehler, Juergen

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Method for evaluating fuel saving potential of vehicle waste heat recovery systems. • Analysis of interactions between waste heat recovery system and vehicle. • Evaluation of fuel saving potential in dynamic motorway driving scenario. • Parameter study for increasing fuel saving potential of integrated system. - Abstract: Waste heat recovery (WHR) by means of a Rankine Cycle is a promising approach for achieving reductions in fuel consumption and, as a result, exhaust emissions of passenger car engines. To find the best compromise between complexity and fuel saving potential, methods for predicting the WHR performance for different system configurations and stationary as well as dynamic driving scenarios are needed. Since WHR systems are usually not included in today’s car concepts, they are mostly designed as add-on systems. As a result their integration may lead to negative interactions due to increased vehicle weight, engine backpressure and cooling demand. These effects have to be considered when evaluating the fuel saving potential. A new approach for predicting WHR performance and fuel saving potential was developed and is presented in this paper. It is based on simple dynamic models of a system for recovering exhaust gas waste heat and its interfaces with the vehicle: the exhaust system for heat input, the on-board electric system for power delivery and the engine cooling system for heat rejection. The models are validated with test bench measurements of the cycle components. A study of fuel saving potential in an exemplary dynamic motorway driving scenario shows the effect of vehicle integration: while the WHR system could improve fuel economy by 3.4%, restrictions in power output due to the architecture of the on-board electric system, package considerations, increased weight, cooling demand and exhaust gas backpressure lead to a reduction of fuel saving potential by 60% to 1.3%. A parameter study reveals that, in addition to weight

  8. Bd0-bar Bd0 mixing and the prediction of the top-quark mass in an independent particle potential model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barik, N.; Das, P.; Panda, A.R.; Roy, K.C.

    1993-01-01

    Considering B d 0 -bar B d 0 mixing in a potential model of independent quarks by taking the effective interaction Hamiltonian of the standard Salam-Weinberg-Glashow model and subsequently diagonalizing the corresponding mass matrix with respect to B d 0 and bar B d 0 states, we obtain an expression for the mass difference ΔM Bd 0 in terms of the t-quark mass m t . Using the recent observation of the mixing parameter x d =0.72±0.15 by the ARGUS Collaboration, we predict the lower bound on the top-quark mass as m t ≥149 GeV. Further, a consideration of experimental mass difference ΔM Bd 0 =(4.0±0.8)x10 -13 GeV also leads to m t =167 -17 +16 GeV which is in agreement with the recent experimental bound as well as other theoretical predictions. However, such a prediction of m t that utilizes the experimental value of the CKM matrix element |V td | may not appear convincing in view of the large uncertainties in the measurement of |V td | so far reported. Therefore using the range of m t values within its bounds predicted from other independent works, we make a reasonable estimation of |V td |

  9. The potential of non-invasive pre- and post-mortem carcass measurements to predict the contribution of carcass components to slaughter yield of guinea pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barba, Lida; Sánchez-Macías, Davinia; Barba, Iván; Rodríguez, Nibaldo

    2018-06-01

    Guinea pig meat consumption is increasing exponentially worldwide. The evaluation of the contribution of carcass components to carcass quality potentially can allow for the estimation of the value added to food animal origin and make research in guinea pigs more practicable. The aim of this study was to propose a methodology for modelling the contribution of different carcass components to the overall carcass quality of guinea pigs by using non-invasive pre- and post mortem carcass measurements. The selection of predictors was developed through correlation analysis and statistical significance; whereas the prediction models were based on Multiple Linear Regression. The prediction results showed higher accuracy in the prediction of carcass component contribution expressed in grams, compared to when expressed as a percentage of carcass quality components. The proposed prediction models can be useful for the guinea pig meat industry and research institutions by using non-invasive and time- and cost-efficient carcass component measuring techniques. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Interatomic potential to predict the favored and optimized compositions for ternary Cu-Zr-Hf metallic glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, S. Y.; Cui, Y. Y.; Dai, Y.; Li, J. H.; Liu, B. X.

    2012-01-01

    Under the framework of smoothed and long range second-moment approximation of tight-binding, a realistic interatomic potential was first constructed for the Cu-Zr-Hf ternary metal system. Applying the constructed potential, Monte Carlo simulations were carried out to compare the relative stability of crystalline solid solution versus its disordered counterpart over the entire composition triangle of the system (as a function of alloy composition). Simulations not only reveal that the origin of metallic glass formation but also determine, in the composition triangle, a quadrilateral region, within which metallic glass formation is energetically favored. It is proposed to define the energy differences between the crystalline solid solutions and disordered states as the driving force for amorphization and the corresponding calculations pinpoint an optimized composition locating at an composition of Cu 55 Zr 10 Hf 35 , around which the driving force for metallic glass formation reaches its maximum, suggesting that the ternary Cu-Zr-Hf metallic glasses designed to have the compositions around Cu 55 Zr 10 Hf 35 could be more stable than other alloys in the system. Moreover, for the Cu 55 Zr 10 Hf 35 metallic glass, the Voronoi tessellation calculations reveal some interesting features of its atomic configurations and coordination polyhedra distribution.

  11. Long non-coding RNA PVT1 as a novel potential biomarker for predicting the prognosis of colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Heng; Zhu, Jian-Hua; Yao, Xue-Qing

    2018-05-01

    Long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) plays a very important role in the occurrence and development of various tumors, and is a potential biomarker for cancer diagnosis and prognosis. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between the expression of lncRNA plasmacytoma variant translocation 1 (PVT1) and the prognostic significance in patients with colorectal cancer. The expression of PVT1 was measured by real-time quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) in cancerous and adjacent tissues of 210 colorectal cancer patients. The disease-free survival and overall survival of colorectal cancer patients were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis, and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed by Cox proportional-hazards model. Our results revealed that PVT1 expression in cancer tissues of colorectal cancer was significantly higher than that of adjacent tissues ( Pcolorectal cancer patients, whether at TNM I/II stage or at TNM III/IV stage. A multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that high PVT1 expression was an independent predictor of poor prognosis in colorectal cancer patients. Our results suggest that high PVT1 expression might be a potential biomarker for assessing tumor recurrence and prognosis in colorectal cancer patients.

  12. Strategy for the Prediction of Steady-State Exposure of Digoxin to Determine Drug-Drug Interaction Potential of Digoxin With Other Drugs in Digitalization Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R

    2016-01-20

    Digoxin, a narrow therapeutic index drug, is widely used in congestive heart failure. However, the digitalization therapy involves dose titration and can exhibit drug-drug interaction. Ctrough versus area under the plasma concentration versus time curve in a dosing interval of 24 hours (AUC0-24h) and Cmax versus AUC0-24h for digoxin were established by linear regression. The predictions of digoxin AUC0-24h values were performed using published Ctrough or Cmax with appropriate regression lines. The fold difference, defined as the quotient of the observed/predicted AUC0-24h values, was evaluated. The mean square error and root mean square error, correlation coefficient (r), and goodness of the fold prediction were used to evaluate the models. Both Ctrough versus AUC0-24h (r = 0.9215) and Cmax versus AUC0-24h models for digoxin (r = 0.7781) showed strong correlations. Approximately 93.8% of the predicted digoxin AUC0-24h values were within 0.76-fold to 1.25-fold difference for Ctrough model. In sharp contrast, the Cmax model showed larger variability with only 51.6% of AUC0-24h predictions within 0.76-1.25-fold difference. The r value for observed versus predicted AUC0-24h for Ctrough (r = 0.9551; n = 177; P < 0.001) was superior to the Cmax (r = 0.6134; n = 275; P < 0.001) model. The mean square error and root mean square error (%) for the Ctrough model were 11.95% and 16.2% as compared to 67.17% and 42.3% obtained for the Cmax model. Simple linear regression models for Ctrough/Cmax versus AUC0-24h were derived for digoxin. On the basis of statistical evaluation, Ctrough was superior to Cmax model for the prediction of digoxin AUC0-24h and can be potentially used in a prospective setting for predicting drug-drug interaction or lack of it.

  13. An Obesity Dietary Quality Index Predicts Abdominal Obesity in Women: Potential Opportunity for New Prevention and Treatment Paradigms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolores M. Wolongevicz

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Links between dietary quality and abdominal obesity are poorly understood. Objective. To examine the association between an obesity-specific dietary quality index and abdominal obesity risk in women. Methods. Over 12 years, we followed 288 Framingham Offspring/Spouse Study women, aged 30–69 years, without metabolic syndrome risk factors, cardiovascular disease, cancer, or diabetes at baseline. An 11-nutrient obesity-specific dietary quality index was derived using mean ranks of nutrient intakes from 3-day dietary records. Abdominal obesity (waist circumference >88 cm was assessed during follow-up. Results. Using multiple logistic regression, women with poorer dietary quality were more likely to develop abdominal obesity compared to those with higher dietary quality (OR 1.87; 95% CI, 1.01, 3.47; P for trend =.048 independent of age, physical activity, smoking, and menopausal status. Conclusions. An obesity-specific dietary quality index predicted abdominal obesity in women, suggesting targets for dietary quality assessment, intervention, and treatment to address abdominal adiposity.

  14. A Systems-Pharmacology Analysis of Herbal Medicines Used in Health Improvement Treatment: Predicting Potential New Drugs and Targets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianling Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available For thousands of years, tonic herbs have been successfully used all around the world to improve health, energy, and vitality. However, their underlying mechanisms of action in molecular/systems levels are still a mystery. In this work, two sets of tonic herbs, so called Qi-enriching herbs (QEH and Blood-tonifying herbs (BTH in TCM, were selected to elucidate why they can restore proper balance and harmony inside body, organ and energy system. Firstly, a pattern recognition model based on artificial neural network and discriminant analysis for assessing the molecular difference between QEH and BTH was developed. It is indicated that QEH compounds have high lipophilicity while BTH compounds possess high chemical reactivity. Secondly, a systematic investigation integrating ADME (absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion prediction, target fishing and network analysis was performed and validated on these herbs to obtain the compound-target associations for reconstructing the biologically-meaningful networks. The results suggest QEH enhance physical strength, immune system and normal well-being, acting as adjuvant therapy for chronic disorders while BTH stimulate hematopoiesis function in body. As an emerging approach, the systems pharmacology model might facilitate to understand the mechanisms of action of the tonic herbs, which brings about new development for complementary and alternative medicine.

  15. Prediction of malting quality traits in barley based on genome-wide marker data to assess the potential of genomic selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Malthe; Kollers, Sonja; Maasberg-Prelle, Anja; Großer, Jörg; Schinkel, Burkhard; Tomerius, Alexandra; Graner, Andreas; Korzun, Viktor

    2016-02-01

    Genomic prediction of malting quality traits in barley shows the potential of applying genomic selection to improve selection for malting quality and speed up the breeding process. Genomic selection has been applied to various plant species, mostly for yield or yield-related traits such as grain dry matter yield or thousand kernel weight, and improvement of resistances against diseases. Quality traits have not been the main scope of analysis for genomic selection, but have rather been addressed by marker-assisted selection. In this study, the potential to apply genomic selection to twelve malting quality traits in two commercial breeding programs of spring and winter barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) was assessed. Phenotypic means were calculated combining multilocational field trial data from 3 or 4 years, depending on the trait investigated. Three to five locations were available in each of these years. Heritabilities for malting traits ranged between 0.50 and 0.98. Predictive abilities (PA), as derived from cross validation, ranged between 0.14 to 0.58 for spring barley and 0.40-0.80 for winter barley. Small training sets were shown to be sufficient to obtain useful PAs, possibly due to the narrow genetic base in this breeding material. Deployment of genomic selection in malting barley breeding clearly has the potential to reduce cost intensive phenotyping for quality traits, increase selection intensity and to shorten breeding cycles.

  16. On the analysis of protein-protein interactions via knowledge-based potentials for the prediction of protein-protein docking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feliu, Elisenda; Aloy, Patrick; Oliva, Baldo

    2011-01-01

    Development of effective methods to screen binary interactions obtained by rigid-body protein-protein docking is key for structure prediction of complexes and for elucidating physicochemical principles of protein-protein binding. We have derived empirical knowledge-based potential functions for s...... and with independence of the partner. This information is encoded at the residue level and could be easily incorporated in the initial grid scoring for Fast Fourier Transform rigid-body docking methods.......Development of effective methods to screen binary interactions obtained by rigid-body protein-protein docking is key for structure prediction of complexes and for elucidating physicochemical principles of protein-protein binding. We have derived empirical knowledge-based potential functions...... for selecting rigid-body docking poses. These potentials include the energetic component that provides the residues with a particular secondary structure and surface accessibility. These scoring functions have been tested on a state-of-art benchmark dataset and on a decoy dataset of permanent interactions. Our...

  17. Brain-behavioral adaptability predicts response to cognitive behavioral therapy for emotional disorders: A person-centered event-related potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stange, Jonathan P; MacNamara, Annmarie; Kennedy, Amy E; Hajcak, Greg; Phan, K Luan; Klumpp, Heide

    2017-06-23

    Single-trial-level analyses afford the ability to link neural indices of elaborative attention (such as the late positive potential [LPP], an event-related potential) with downstream markers of attentional processing (such as reaction time [RT]). This approach can provide useful information about individual differences in information processing, such as the ability to adapt behavior based on attentional demands ("brain-behavioral adaptability"). Anxiety and depression are associated with maladaptive information processing implicating aberrant cognition-emotion interactions, but whether brain-behavioral adaptability predicts response to psychotherapy is not known. We used a novel person-centered, trial-level analysis approach to link neural indices of stimulus processing to behavioral responses and to predict treatment outcome. Thirty-nine patients with anxiety and/or depression received 12 weeks of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Prior to treatment, patients performed a speeded reaction-time task involving briefly-presented pairs of aversive and neutral pictures while electroencephalography was recorded. Multilevel modeling demonstrated that larger LPPs predicted slower responses on subsequent trials, suggesting that increased attention to the task-irrelevant nature of pictures interfered with reaction time on subsequent trials. Whereas using LPP and RT averages did not distinguish CBT responders from nonresponders, in trial-level analyses individuals who demonstrated greater ability to benefit behaviorally (i.e., faster RT) from smaller LPPs on the previous trial (greater brain-behavioral adaptability) were more likely to respond to treatment and showed greater improvements in depressive symptoms. These results highlight the utility of trial-level analyses to elucidate variability in within-subjects, brain-behavioral attentional coupling in the context of emotion processing, in predicting response to CBT for emotional disorders. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd

  18. Predicting treatment response in Schizophrenia: the role of stratal and frontal dopamine D2/D3 receptor binding potential

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Sanne; Nørbak-Emig, Henrik; Nielsen, Mette Ødegaard

    2014-01-01

    Background One of the best validated findings in schizophrenia is an association between increased presynaptic striatal dopaminergic activity and psychotic symptoms. We have previously reported an association between positive symptoms and dopamine D2 receptor binding potentials (BPs) in frontal...... cortex in antipsychotic-naïve first-episode male schizophrenia patients(1). Preclinical studies suggest an inverse relationship between frontal and striatal dopamine activity. This activity can indirectly be expressed by the BP of dopamine receptors using Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT......) where low striatal BP is believed to reflect high dopamine availability. We aim to assess the association between D2 receptor BPs in antipsychotic-naïve first-episode schizophrenia patients and their response to the first treatment with an antipsychotic compound. We hypothesise that patients with low...

  19. Localization and prediction of malignant potential in recurrent pheochromocytoma/paraganglioma (PCC/PGL) using 18F-FDG PET/CT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fikri, Ahmad Saad Fathinul; Kroiss, A; Ahmad, A Z F; Zanariah, H; Lau, W F E; Uprimny, C; Donnemiller, E; Kendler, D; Nordin, A J; Virgolini, I J

    2014-06-01

    To our knowledge, data are lacking on the role of 18F-FDG PET/CT in the localization and prediction of neuroendocrine tumors, in particular the pheochromocytoma/paraganglioma (PCC/PGL) group. To evaluate the role of 18F-FDG PET/CT in localizing and predicting the malignant potential of PCC/PGL. Twenty-three consecutive patients with a history of PCC/PGL, presenting with symptoms related to catecholamine excess, underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT. Final confirmation of the diagnosis was made using the composite references. PET/CT findings were analyzed on a per-lesion basis and a per-patient basis. Tumor SUVmax was analyzed to predict the dichotomization of patient endpoints for the local disease and metastatic groups. We investigated 23 patients (10 men, 13 women) with a mean age of 46.43 ± 3.70 years. Serum catecholamine levels were elevated in 82.60% of these patients. There were 136 sites (mean SUVmax: 16.39 ± 3.47) of validated disease recurrence. The overall sensitivities for diagnostic CT, FDG PET, and FDG PET/CT were 86.02%, 87.50%, and 98.59%, respectively. Based on the composite references, 39.10% of patients had local disease. There were significant differences in the SUVmax distribution between the local disease and metastatic groups; a significant correlation was noted when a SUVmax cut-off was set at 9.2 (Plocalization of recurrent tumors. Tumor SUVmax is a potentially useful predictor of malignant tumor potential. © The Foundation Acta Radiologica 2013 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

  20. Quantitative prediction of respiratory tidal volume based on the external torso volume change: a potential volumetric surrogate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Guang; Arora, Naveen C; Xie Huchen; Ning, Holly; Citrin, Deborah; Kaushal, Aradhana; Zach, Leor; Camphausen, Kevin; Miller, Robert W; Lu Wei; Low, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    An external respiratory surrogate that not only highly correlates with but also quantitatively predicts internal tidal volume should be useful in guiding four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT), as well as 4D radiation therapy (4DRT). A volumetric surrogate should have advantages over external fiducial point(s) for monitoring respiration-induced motion of the torso, which deforms in synchronization with a patient-specific breathing pattern. This study establishes a linear relationship between the external torso volume change (TVC) and lung air volume change (AVC) by validating a proposed volume conservation hypothesis (TVC = AVC) throughout the respiratory cycle using 4DCT and spirometry. Fourteen patients' torso 4DCT images and corresponding spirometric tidal volumes were acquired to examine this hypothesis. The 4DCT images were acquired using dual surrogates in cine mode and amplitude-based binning in 12 respiratory stages, minimizing residual motion artifacts. Torso and lung volumes were calculated using threshold-based segmentation algorithms and volume changes were calculated relative to the full-exhalation stage. The TVC and AVC, as functions of respiratory stages, were compared, showing a high correlation (r = 0.992 ± 0.005, p 2 = 0.980) without phase shift. The AVC was also compared to the spirometric tidal volumes, showing a similar linearity (slope = 1.030 ± 0.092, R 2 = 0.947). In contrast, the thoracic and abdominal heights measured from 4DCT showed relatively low correlation (0.28 ± 0.44 and 0.82 ± 0.30, respectively) and location-dependent phase shifts. This novel approach establishes the foundation for developing an external volumetric respiratory surrogate.

  1. Quantitative prediction of respiratory tidal volume based on the external torso volume change: a potential volumetric surrogate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Guang; Arora, Naveen C; Xie Huchen; Ning, Holly; Citrin, Deborah; Kaushal, Aradhana; Zach, Leor; Camphausen, Kevin; Miller, Robert W [Radiation Oncology Branch, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892 (United States); Lu Wei; Low, Daniel [Department of Radiation Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine, St Louis, MO 63110 (United States)], E-mail: ligeorge@mail.nih.gov

    2009-04-07

    An external respiratory surrogate that not only highly correlates with but also quantitatively predicts internal tidal volume should be useful in guiding four-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT), as well as 4D radiation therapy (4DRT). A volumetric surrogate should have advantages over external fiducial point(s) for monitoring respiration-induced motion of the torso, which deforms in synchronization with a patient-specific breathing pattern. This study establishes a linear relationship between the external torso volume change (TVC) and lung air volume change (AVC) by validating a proposed volume conservation hypothesis (TVC = AVC) throughout the respiratory cycle using 4DCT and spirometry. Fourteen patients' torso 4DCT images and corresponding spirometric tidal volumes were acquired to examine this hypothesis. The 4DCT images were acquired using dual surrogates in cine mode and amplitude-based binning in 12 respiratory stages, minimizing residual motion artifacts. Torso and lung volumes were calculated using threshold-based segmentation algorithms and volume changes were calculated relative to the full-exhalation stage. The TVC and AVC, as functions of respiratory stages, were compared, showing a high correlation (r = 0.992 {+-} 0.005, p < 0.0001) as well as a linear relationship (slope = 1.027 {+-} 0.061, R{sup 2} = 0.980) without phase shift. The AVC was also compared to the spirometric tidal volumes, showing a similar linearity (slope = 1.030 {+-} 0.092, R{sup 2} = 0.947). In contrast, the thoracic and abdominal heights measured from 4DCT showed relatively low correlation (0.28 {+-} 0.44 and 0.82 {+-} 0.30, respectively) and location-dependent phase shifts. This novel approach establishes the foundation for developing an external volumetric respiratory surrogate.

  2. Does visual working memory represent the predicted locations of future target objects? An event-related brain potential study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grubert, Anna; Eimer, Martin

    2015-11-11

    During the maintenance of task-relevant objects in visual working memory, the contralateral delay activity (CDA) is elicited over the hemisphere opposite to the visual field where these objects are presented. The presence of this lateralised CDA component demonstrates the existence of position-dependent object representations in working memory. We employed a change detection task to investigate whether the represented object locations in visual working memory are shifted in preparation for the known location of upcoming comparison stimuli. On each trial, bilateral memory displays were followed after a delay period by bilateral test displays. Participants had to encode and maintain three visual objects on one side of the memory display, and to judge whether they were identical or different to three objects in the test display. Task-relevant memory and test stimuli were located in the same visual hemifield in the no-shift task, and on opposite sides in the horizontal shift task. CDA components of similar size were triggered contralateral to the memorized objects in both tasks. The absence of a polarity reversal of the CDA in the horizontal shift task demonstrated that there was no preparatory shift of memorized object location towards the side of the upcoming comparison stimuli. These results suggest that visual working memory represents the locations of visual objects during encoding, and that the matching of memorized and test objects at different locations is based on a comparison process that can bridge spatial translations between these objects. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Prediction and Attention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Predictive potential of macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luedike, Peter; Alatzides, Georgios; Papathanasiou, Maria; Heisler, Martin; Pohl, Julia; Lehmann, Nils; Rassaf, Tienush

    2018-05-04

    Prognostication in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is challenging and novel biomarkers are urgently needed. Macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) is a pro-inflammatory cytokine that plays a crucial role in cardiovascular and various inflammatory diseases. Whether MIF is involved in HFpEF is unknown. Sixty-two patients with HFpEF were enrolled and followed up for 180 days. MIF plasma levels as well as natriuretic peptide (NP) levels were assessed. High MIF levels significantly predicted the combined end-point of all-cause death or hospitalization at 180 days in the univariate analysis (HR 2.41, 95% CI 1.12-5.19, p = 0.025) and after adjustment for relevant covariates in a Cox proportional hazard regression model (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.05-5.27, p = 0.0374). Furthermore, MIF levels above the median were associated with higher pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP) as assessed by echocardiography (PASP 31 mmHg vs 48 mmHg in the low- and high-MIF group, respectively, p = 0.017). NPs significantly correlated with MIF in HFpEF patients (BNP p = 0.011; r = 0.32; NT-proBNP p = 0.027; r = 0.28). MIF was associated with clinical outcomes and might be involved in the pathophysiology of pulmonary hypertension in patients with HFpEF. These first data on MIF in HFpEF should stimulate further research to elucidate the role of this cytokine in heart failure. Trial registration NCT03232671.

  4. Genome-Wide Locations of Potential Epimutations Associated with Environmentally Induced Epigenetic Transgenerational Inheritance of Disease Using a Sequential Machine Learning Prediction Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Muksitul Haque

    Full Text Available Environmentally induced epigenetic transgenerational inheritance of disease and phenotypic variation involves germline transmitted epimutations. The primary epimutations identified involve altered differential DNA methylation regions (DMRs. Different environmental toxicants have been shown to promote exposure (i.e., toxicant specific signatures of germline epimutations. Analysis of genomic features associated with these epimutations identified low-density CpG regions (<3 CpG / 100bp termed CpG deserts and a number of unique DNA sequence motifs. The rat genome was annotated for these and additional relevant features. The objective of the current study was to use a machine learning computational approach to predict all potential epimutations in the genome. A number of previously identified sperm epimutations were used as training sets. A novel machine learning approach using a sequential combination of Active Learning and Imbalance Class Learner analysis was developed. The transgenerational sperm epimutation analysis identified approximately 50K individual sites with a 1 kb mean size and 3,233 regions that had a minimum of three adjacent sites with a mean size of 3.5 kb. A select number of the most relevant genomic features were identified with the low density CpG deserts being a critical genomic feature of the features selected. A similar independent analysis with transgenerational somatic cell epimutation training sets identified a smaller number of 1,503 regions of genome-wide predicted sites and differences in genomic feature contributions. The predicted genome-wide germline (sperm epimutations were found to be distinct from the predicted somatic cell epimutations. Validation of the genome-wide germline predicted sites used two recently identified transgenerational sperm epimutation signature sets from the pesticides dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT and methoxychlor (MXC exposure lineage F3 generation. Analysis of this positive validation

  5. Pan-Genome Analysis of Human Gastric Pathogen H. pylori: Comparative Genomics and Pathogenomics Approaches to Identify Regions Associated with Pathogenicity and Prediction of Potential Core Therapeutic Targets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ali, Amjad; Naz, Anam; Soares, Siomar C.

    2015-01-01

    -genome approach; the predicted conserved gene families (1,193) constitute similar to 77% of the average H. pylori genome and 45% of the global gene repertoire of the species. Reverse vaccinology strategies have been adopted to identify and narrow down the potential core-immunogenic candidates. Total of 28 nonhost....... Pan-genome analyses of the global representative H. pylori isolates consisting of 39 complete genomes are presented in this paper. Phylogenetic analyses have revealed close relationships among geographically diverse strains of H. pylori. The conservation among these genomes was further analyzed by pan...

  6. The Brain Activity in Brodmann Area 17: A Potential Bio-Marker to Predict Patient Responses to Antiepileptic Drugs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yida Hu

    Full Text Available In this study, we aimed to predict newly diagnosed patient responses to antiepileptic drugs (AEDs using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging tools to explore changes in spontaneous brain activity. We recruited 21 newly diagnosed epileptic patients, 8 drug-resistant (DR patients, 11 well-healed (WH patients, and 13 healthy controls. After a 12-month follow-up, 11 newly diagnosed epileptic patients who showed a poor response to AEDs were placed into the seizures uncontrolled (SUC group, while 10 patients were enrolled in the seizure-controlled (SC group. By calculating the amplitude of fractional low-frequency fluctuations (fALFF of blood oxygen level-dependent signals to measure brain activity during rest, we found that the SUC patients showed increased activity in the bilateral occipital lobe, particularly in the cuneus and lingual gyrus compared with the SC group and healthy controls. Interestingly, DR patients also showed increased activity in the identical cuneus and lingual gyrus regions, which comprise Brodmann's area 17 (BA17, compared with the SUC patients; however, these abnormalities were not observed in SC and WH patients. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves indicated that the fALFF value of BA17 could differentiate SUC patients from SC patients and healthy controls with sufficient sensitivity and specificity prior to the administration of medication. Functional connectivity analysis was subsequently performed to evaluate the difference in connectivity between BA17 and other brain regions in the SUC, SC and control groups. Regions nearby the cuneus and lingual gyrus were found positive connectivity increased changes or positive connectivity changes with BA17 in the SUC patients, while remarkably negative connectivity increased changes or positive connectivity decreased changes were found in the SC patients. Additionally, default mode network (DMN regions showed negative connectivity increased changes or

  7. Analyses of Potential Predictive Markers and Response to Targeted Therapy in Patients with Advanced Clear-cell Renal Cell Carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Song

    2015-01-01

    : VHL mutation status could not predict the efficacy of sunitinib or pazopanib. Further investigation of VHL/VEGFR pathway components is needed.

  8. Modeling of hydroecological feedbacks predicts distinct classes of landscape pattern, process, and restoration potential in shallow aquatic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Laurel G.; Harvey, Judson W.

    2011-01-01

    transport capacity of the flow and sediment supply, these vegetated systems exhibit a feedback that is not dominant in most rivers. Consequently, unlike in most rivers, it is not possible to predict the “channel pattern” of a vegetated landscape based only on discharge characteristics and sediment supply; the antecedent vegetation pattern and vegetation dynamics must also be known.

  9. Understanding chemical-potential-related transient pore-pressure response to improve real-time borehole (in)stability predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tare, U.A.; Mody, F.K.; Mese, A.I. [Halliburton Energy Services, Cairo (Egypt)

    2000-11-01

    Experimental studies were conducted to explain the concept of a real-time wellbore (in)stability logging methodology. The role of the chemical potential of drilling fluids on transient pore pressure and time-dependent rock property alterations of shale formations was examined by providing details about a pore pressure transmission (PPT) test. The PPT experiments exposed formation (shale) cores under simulated downhole conditions to various salt solutions and drilling fluids. The main objective was to translate the results of the PPT tests to actual drilling conditions. A 20 per cent w/w calcium chloride solution was exposed to a Pierre II shale under high pressure in the PPT apparatus. The PPT test was used to estimate the impact of a drilling fluid on shale pore pressure. The efficiency of the salt solution/shale system was also estimated. Estimates of the dynamic rock properties were made based on the obtained acoustic data. It was determined that in order to accurately model time-dependent wellbore (in)stability in the field, it is important to calibrate representative shale core response to drilling fluids under realistic in-situ conditions. The 20 per cent w/w calcium chloride solution showed very low membrane efficiency of 4.45 per cent. It was concluded that changes in the shale dynamic rock properties as a function of test fluid exposure can be obtained from the simultaneous acquisition of sonic compression and shear wave velocity data. 12 refs., 5 figs.

  10. Expression Profiling of Ribosome Biogenesis Factors Reveals Nucleolin as a Novel Potential Marker to Predict Outcome in AML Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virginie Marcel

    Full Text Available Acute myeloid leukemia (AML is a heterogeneous disease. Prognosis is mainly influenced by patient age at diagnosis and cytogenetic alterations, two of the main factors currently used in AML patient risk stratification. However, additional criteria are required to improve the current risk classification and better adapt patient care. In neoplastic cells, ribosome biogenesis is increased to sustain the high proliferation rate and ribosome composition is altered to modulate specific gene expression driving tumorigenesis. Here, we investigated the usage of ribosome biogenesis factors as clinical markers in adult patients with AML. We showed that nucleoli, the nucleus compartments where ribosome production takes place, are modified in AML by analyzing a panel of AML and healthy donor cells using immunofluorescence staining. Using four AML series, including the TCGA dataset, altogether representing a total of about 270 samples, we showed that not all factors involved in ribosome biogenesis have clinical values although ribosome biogenesis is increased in AML. Interestingly, we identified the regulator of ribosome production nucleolin (NCL as over-expressed in AML blasts. Moreover, we found in two series that high NCL mRNA expression level was associated with a poor overall survival, particular in elderly patients. Multivariate analyses taking into account age and cytogenetic risk indicated that NCL expression in blast cells is an independent marker of reduced survival. Our study identifies NCL as a potential novel prognostic factor in AML. Altogether, our results suggest that the ribosome biogenesis pathway may be of interest as clinical markers in AML.

  11. Predicting the ultimate potential of natural gas SOFC power cycles with CO2 capture - Part A: Methodology and reference cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campanari, Stefano; Mastropasqua, Luca; Gazzani, Matteo; Chiesa, Paolo; Romano, Matteo C.

    2016-08-01

    Driven by the search for the highest theoretical efficiency, in the latest years several studies investigated the integration of high temperature fuel cells in natural gas fired power plants, where fuel cells are integrated with simple or modified Brayton cycles and/or with additional bottoming cycles, and CO2 can be separated via chemical or physical separation, oxy-combustion and cryogenic methods. Focusing on Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) and following a comprehensive review and analysis of possible plant configurations, this work investigates their theoretical potential efficiency and proposes two ultra-high efficiency plant configurations based on advanced intermediate-temperature SOFCs integrated with a steam turbine or gas turbine cycle. The SOFC works at atmospheric or pressurized conditions and the resulting power plant exceeds 78% LHV efficiency without CO2 capture (as discussed in part A of the work) and 70% LHV efficiency with substantial CO2 capture (part B). The power plants are simulated at the 100 MW scale with a complete set of realistic assumptions about fuel cell (FC) performance, plant components and auxiliaries, presenting detailed energy and material balances together with a second law analysis.

  12. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wenguo; Tang, Xiaoyu; Zhu, Qili; Pan, Ke; Hu, Qichun; He, Mingxiong; Li, Jiatang

    2014-01-01

    Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.

  13. Feasibility and potential utility of multicomponent exhaled breath analysis for predicting development of radiation pneumonitis after stereotactic ablative radiotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moré, Jayaji M; Eclov, Neville C W; Chung, Melody P; Wynne, Jacob F; Shorter, Joanne H; Nelson, David D; Hanlon, Alexandra L; Burmeister, Robert; Banos, Peter; Maxim, Peter G; Loo, Billy W; Diehn, Maximilian

    2014-07-01

    In this prospective pilot study, we evaluated the feasibility and potential utility of measuring multiple exhaled gases as biomarkers of radiation pneumonitis (RP) in patients receiving stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) for lung tumors. Breath analysis was performed for 26 patients receiving SABR for lung tumors. Concentrations of exhaled nitric oxide (eNO), carbon monoxide (eCO), nitrous oxide (eN2O), and carbon dioxide (eCO2) were measured before and immediately after each fraction using real-time, infrared laser spectroscopy. RP development (CTCAE grade ≥2) was correlated with baseline gas concentrations, acute changes in gas concentrations after each SABR fraction, and dosimetric parameters. Exhaled breath analysis was successfully completed in 77% of patients. Five of 20 evaluable patients developed RP at a mean of 5.4 months after SABR. Acute changes in eNO and eCO concentrations, defined as percent changes between each pre-fraction and post-fraction measurement, were significantly smaller in RP versus non-RP cases (p = 0.022 and 0.015, respectively). In an exploratory analysis, a combined predictor of baseline eNO greater than 24 parts per billion and acute decrease in eCO less than 5.5% strongly correlated with RP incidence (p =0.0099). Neither eN2O nor eCO2 concentrations were significantly associated with RP development. Although generally higher in patients destined to develop RP, dosimetric parameters were not significantly associated with RP development. The majority of SABR patients in this pilot study were able to complete exhaled breath analysis. Baseline concentrations and acute changes in concentrations of exhaled breath components were associated with RP development after SABR. If our findings are validated, exhaled breath analysis may become a useful approach for noninvasive identification of patients at highest risk for developing RP after SABR.

  14. Potential energy and dipole moment surfaces for HF@C60: Prediction of spectral and electric response properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalugina, Yulia N.; Roy, Pierre-Nicholas

    2017-12-01

    We present a five-dimensional potential energy surface (PES) for the HF@C60 system computed at the DF-LMP2/cc-pVTZ level of theory. We also calculated a five-dimensional dipole moment surface (DMS) based on DFT(PBE0)/cc-pVTZ calculations. The HF and C60 molecules are considered rigid with bond length rHF = 0.9255 Å (gas phase ground rovibrational state geometry). The C60 geometry is of Ih symmetry. The ab initio points were fitted to obtain a PES in terms of bipolar spherical harmonics. The minimum of the PES corresponds to a geometry where the center of mass of HF is located 0.11 Å away from the center of the cage with an interaction energy of -6.929 kcal/mol. The DMS was also represented in terms of bipolar spherical harmonics. The PES was used to calculate the rotation-translation bound states of HF@C60, and good agreement was found relative to the available experimental data [A. Krachmalnicoff et al., Nat. Chem. 8, 953 (2016)] except for the splitting of the first rotational excitation levels. We propose an empirical adjustment to the PES in order to account for the experimentally observed symmetry breaking. The form of that effective PES is additive. We also propose an effective Hamiltonian with an adjusted rotational constant in order to quantitatively reproduce the experimental results including the splitting of the first rotational state. We use our models to compute the molecular volume polarizability of HF confined by C60 and obtain good agreement with experiment.

  15. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenguo Wang

    Full Text Available Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080 on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.

  16. Potential of the octanol-water partition coefficient (logP) to predict the dermal penetration behaviour of amphiphilic compounds in aqueous solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korinth, Gintautas; Wellner, Tanja; Schaller, Karl Heinz; Drexler, Hans

    2012-11-23

    Aqueous amphiphilic compounds may exhibit enhanced skin penetration compared with neat compounds. Conventional models do not predict this percutaneous penetration behaviour. We investigated the potential of the octanol-water partition coefficient (logP) to predict dermal fluxes for eight compounds applied neat and as 50% aqueous solutions in diffusion cell experiments using human skin. Data for seven other compounds were accessed from literature. In total, seven glycol ethers, three alcohols, two glycols, and three other chemicals were considered. Of these 15 compounds, 10 penetrated faster through the skin as aqueous solutions than as neat compounds. The other five compounds exhibited larger fluxes as neat applications. For 13 of the 15 compounds, a consistent relationship was identified between the percutaneous penetration behaviour and the logP. Compared with the neat applications, positive logP were associated with larger fluxes for eight of the diluted compounds, and negative logP were associated with smaller fluxes for five of the diluted compounds. Our study demonstrates that decreases or enhancements in dermal penetration upon aqueous dilution can be predicted for many compounds from the sign of logP (i.e., positive or negative). This approach may be suitable as a first approximation in risk assessments of dermal exposure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Specific demographic factors could predict deceased potential cornea donors: A retrospective study from Beijing Tongren Hospital Eye Bank.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yang; Zhang, Yingnan; Zhang, Jing; Yu, Jin; Liang, Qingfeng; Pan, Zhiqiang

    2017-12-01

    Compared with evident cornea donors (ECDs), deceased potential cornea donors (DPCDs) have no obvious donor identifications to reference, which causes many eligible cornea tissues to be wasted. The demographic characteristics of DPCDs might be different from those of ECDs owing to the following different features: donation consent provided by relatives and willingness to donate before death. Thus, the aim of this study is to reveal the demographic characteristics of DPCDs by comparing DPCDs and ECDs.The demographic factors of 138 donors (both DPCDs and ECDs) were collected from the Beijing Tongren Hospital Eye Bank database and analyzed. To differentiate DPCDs from ECDs using the above-mentioned features, we interviewed the relatives of the donors by telephone. The relatives' attitudes toward cornea donation and their suggestions for our donation service were also acquired during the interview. Two logistic regressions were performed to reveal the demographic factors influencing the 2 features and indicate DPCDs.The donors had certain demographic characteristics (elderly, secondary, or tertiary education level, central district resident), and the most frequent cause of death for the donors was a malignant tumor (n = 56, 43.1%). All the relatives had positive attitudes toward cornea donations, and they hoped to increase publicity efforts to encourage more people to donate and establish more convenient and efficient access for cornea donation. In univariate regressions, age (P = .004, >50 years: odds ratio [OR] = 6.89, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.82-26.05), marital status (P = .043, divorced: OR = 9.00,95% CI: 1.33-60.80) significantly influenced relative consent, whereas age (P = .001, >50 years: OR = 15.00, 95% CI: 3.00-74.98), and family address (P = .001, central district: OR = 1) were significant factors influencing the willingness to donate before death. In multivariate regression, age (P = .021, >50 years: OR = 8

  18. Exploring the potential of the cosmic-ray neutron method to simultaneously predict soil water and vegetation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogena, H. R.; Fuchs, H.; Jakobi, J.; Huisman, J. A.; Diekkrüger, B.; Vereecken, H.

    2016-12-01

    intensity reduced the discrepancy between cosmic-ray-derived and in-situ measured soil moisture. Finally, we investigated the temporal dynamics of the thermal-to-epithermal neutron ratio to explore its potential as a predictor for canopy interception and biomass changes.

  19. Circulating levels of miR-133a predict the regression potential of left ventricular hypertrophy after valve replacement surgery in patients with aortic stenosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Raquel; Villar, Ana V; Cobo, Manuel; Llano, Miguel; Martín-Durán, Rafael; Hurlé, María A; Nistal, J Francisco

    2013-08-15

    Myocardial microRNA-133a (miR-133a) is directly related to reverse remodeling after pressure overload release in aortic stenosis patients. Herein, we assessed the significance of plasma miR-133a as an accessible biomarker with prognostic value in predicting the reversibility potential of LV hypertrophy after aortic valve replacement (AVR) in these patients. The expressions of miR-133a and its targets were measured in LV biopsies from 74 aortic stenosis patients. Circulating miR-133a was measured in peripheral and coronary sinus blood. LV mass reduction was determined echocardiographically. Myocardial and plasma levels of miR-133a correlated directly (r=0.46, Pregression analysis identified plasma miR-133a as a positive predictor of the hypertrophy reversibility after surgery. The discrimination of the model yielded an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.89 (Pregression analysis revealed plasma miR-133a and its myocardial target Wolf-Hirschhorn syndrome candidate 2/Negative elongation factor A as opposite predictors of the LV mass loss (g) after AVR. Preoperative plasma levels of miR-133a reflect their myocardial expression and predict the regression potential of LV hypertrophy after AVR. The value of this bedside information for the surgical timing, particularly in asymptomatic aortic stenosis patients, deserves confirmation in further clinical studies.

  20. Prediction of preservative sensitization potential using surface marker CD86 and/or CD54 expression on human cell line, THP-1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakaguchi, Hitoshi; Miyazawa, Masaaki; Yoshida, Yukiko; Ito, Yuichi; Suzuki, Hiroyuki

    2007-02-01

    Preservatives are important components in many products, but have a history of purported allergy. Several assays [e.g., guinea pig maximization test (GPMT), local lymph node assay (LLNA)] are used to evaluate allergy potential of preservatives. We recently developed the human Cell Line Activation Test (h-CLAT), an in vitro skin sensitization test using human THP-1 cells. This test evaluates the augmentation of CD86 and CD54 expression, which are key events in the sensitization process, as an indicator of allergy following treatment with test chemical. Earlier, we found that a sub-toxic concentration was needed for the up-regulation of surface marker expression. In this study, we further evaluate the capability of h-CLAT to predict allergy potential using eight preservatives. Cytotoxicity was determined using propidium iodide with flow cytometry analysis and five doses that produce a 95, 85, 75, 65, and 50% cell viability were selected. If a material did not have any cytotoxicity at the highest technical dose (HTD), five doses are set using serial 1.3 dilutions of the HTD. The test materials used were six known allergic preservatives (e.g., methylchloroisothiazolinone/methylisothiazolinone, formaldehyde), and two non-allergic preservatives (methylparaben and 4-hydroxybenzoic acid). All allergic preservatives augmented CD86 and/or CD54 expression, indicating h-CLAT correctly identified the allergens. No augmentation was observed with the non-allergic preservatives; also correctly identified by h-CLAT. In addition, we report two threshold concentrations that may be used to categorize skin sensitization potency like the LLNA estimated concentration that yield a three-fold stimulation (EC3) value. These corresponding values are the estimated concentration which gives a relative fluorescence intensity (RFI) = 150 for CD86 and an RFI = 200 for CD54. These data suggest that h-CLAT, using THP-1 cells, may be able to predict the allergy potential of preservatives and

  1. Comparison on batch anaerobic digestion of five different livestock manures and prediction of biochemical methane potential (BMP) using different statistical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafle, Gopi Krishna; Chen, Lide

    2016-02-01

    There is a lack of literature reporting the methane potential of several livestock manures under the same anaerobic digestion conditions (same inoculum, temperature, time, and size of the digester). To the best of our knowledge, no previous study has reported biochemical methane potential (BMP) predicting models developed and evaluated by solely using at least five different livestock manure tests results. The goal of this study was to evaluate the BMP of five different livestock manures (dairy manure (DM), horse manure (HM), goat manure (GM), chicken manure (CM) and swine manure (SM)) and to predict the BMP using different statistical models. Nutrients of the digested different manures were also monitored. The BMP tests were conducted under mesophilic temperatures with a manure loading factor of 3.5g volatile solids (VS)/L and a feed to inoculum ratio (F/I) of 0.5. Single variable and multiple variable regression models were developed using manure total carbohydrate (TC), crude protein (CP), total fat (TF), lignin (LIG) and acid detergent fiber (ADF), and measured BMP data. Three different kinetic models (first order kinetic model, modified Gompertz model and Chen and Hashimoto model) were evaluated for BMP predictions. The BMPs of DM, HM, GM, CM and SM were measured to be 204, 155, 159, 259, and 323mL/g VS, respectively and the VS removals were calculated to be 58.6%, 52.9%, 46.4%, 81.4%, 81.4%, respectively. The technical digestion time (T80-90, time required to produce 80-90% of total biogas production) for DM, HM, GM, CM and SM was calculated to be in the ranges of 19-28, 27-37, 31-44, 13-18, 12-17days, respectively. The effluents from the HM showed the lowest nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium concentrations. The effluents from the CM digesters showed highest nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and digested SM showed highest potassium concentration. Based on the results of the regression analysis, the model using the variable of LIG showed the best (R(2

  2. Potential impact of predicted sea level rise on carbon sink function of mangrove ecosystems with special reference to Negombo estuary, Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, K. A. R. S.; De Silva, K. H. W. L.; Amarasinghe, M. D.

    2018-02-01

    Unique location in the land-sea interface makes mangrove ecosystems most vulnerable to the impacts of predicted sea level rise due to increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Among others, carbon sink function of these tropical ecosystems that contribute to reduce rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature, could potentially be affected most. Present study was undertaken to explore the extent of impact of the predicted sea level rise for the region on total organic carbon (TOC) pools of the mangrove ecosystems in Negombo estuary located on the west coast of Sri Lanka. Extents of the coastal inundations under minimum (0.09 m) and maximum (0.88 m) sea level rise scenarios of IPCC for 2100 and an intermediate level of 0.48 m were determined with GIS tools. Estimated total capacity of organic carbon retention by these mangrove areas was 499.45 Mg C ha- 1 of which 84% (418.98 Mg C ha- 1) sequestered in the mangrove soil and 16% (80.56 Mg C ha- 1) in the vegetation. Total extent of land area potentially affected by inundation under lowest sea level rise scenario was 218.9 ha, while it was 476.2 ha under intermediate rise and 696.0 ha with the predicted maximum sea level rise. Estimated rate of loss of carbon sink function due to inundation by the sea level rise of 0.09 m is 6.30 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 while the intermediate sea level rise indicated a loss of 9.92 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1 and under maximum sea level rise scenario, this loss further increases up to 11.32 Mg C ha- 1 y- 1. Adaptation of mangrove plants to withstand inundation and landward migration along with escalated photosynthetic rates, augmented by changing rainfall patterns and availability of nutrients may contribute to reduce the rate of loss of carbon sink function of these mangrove ecosystems. Predictions over change in carbon sequestration function of mangroves in Negombo estuary reveals that it is not only affected by oceanographic and hydrological alterations associated with sea level rise but also by anthropogenic

  3. Virtual screening of natural inhibitors to the predicted HBx protein structure of Hepatitis B Virus using molecular docking for identification of potential lead molecules for liver cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Rajesh Kumar; Baunthiyal, Mamta; Taj, Gohar; Kumar, Anil

    2014-01-01

    The HBx protein in Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) is a potential target for anti-liver cancer molecules. Therefore, it is of interest to screen known natural compounds against the HBx protein using molecular docking. However, the structure of HBx is not yet known. Therefore, the predicted structure of HBx using threading in LOMET was used for docking against plant derived natural compounds (curcumin, oleanolic acid, resveratrol, bilobetin, luteoline, ellagic acid, betulinic acid and rutin) by Molegro Virtual Docker. The screening identified rutin with binding energy of -161.65 Kcal/mol. Thus, twenty derivatives of rutin were further designed and screened against HBx. These in silico experiments identified compounds rutin01 (-163.16 Kcal/mol) and rutin08 (- 165.76 Kcal/mol) for further consideration and downstream validation. PMID:25187683

  4. Predicting treatment response from dopamine D2/3 receptor bnding potential? - A study in antipsychotic-naïve patients with schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Sanne; Pinborg, Lars Hageman; Svarer, Claus

    of antipsychotic compounds on the positive symptoms. Furthermore, blockade of striatal dopamine D2 receptors have in studies shown to associate negatively with subjective well-being. Our main aim was to explore a possible predictive value of striatal dopamine D2/3 receptor binding potential (BPp) for treatment...... of 29 antipsychotic-naïve patients with schizophrenia and 26 matched healthy controls, SPECT with [123l]-IBZM was used to examine the BPP of striatal dopamine D2/3 receptors. The participants were examined at baseline and after 6 weeks of treatment with a selective D2/3 receptor antagonist, amisulpride....... Results: We found a significant inverse correlation between the striatal BPp at baseline and improvement of positive symptoms (p=0.046; R squared = 0.152) after six weeks of treatment with amisulpride. There was no association between the blockade of the D2/3 receptors and improvement of positive symptoms...

  5. Predicting bed shear stress and its role in sediment dynamics and restoration potential of the Everglades and other vegetated flow systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Laurel G.; Harvey, Judson; Crimaldi, John P.

    2009-01-01

    Entrainment of sediment by flowing water affects topography, habitat suitability, and nutrient cycling in vegetated floodplains and wetlands, impacting ecosystem evolution and the success of restoration projects. Nonetheless, restoration managers lack simple decision-support tools for predicting shear stresses and sediment redistribution potential in different vegetation communities. Using a field-validated numerical model, we developed state-space diagrams that provide these predictions over a range of water-surface slopes, depths, and associated velocities in Everglades ridge and slough vegetation communities. Diminished bed shear stresses and a consequent decrease in bed sediment redistribution are hypothesized causes of a recent reduction in the topographic and vegetation heterogeneity of this ecosystem. Results confirmed the inability of present-day flows to entrain bed sediment. Further, our diagrams showed bed shear stresses to be highly sensitive to emergent vegetation density and water-surface slope but less sensitive to water depth and periphyton or floating vegetation abundance. These findings suggested that instituting a pulsing flow regime could be the most effective means to restore sediment redistribution to the Everglades. However, pulsing flows will not be sufficient to erode sediment from sloughs with abundant spikerush, unless spikerush density first decreases by natural or managed processes. Our methods provide a novel tool for identifying restoration parameters and performance measures in many types of vegetated aquatic environments where sediment erosion and deposition are involved.

  6. Development of a predictive methodology for identifying high radon exhalation potential areas; Mise au point d'une methodologie predictive des zones a fort potentiel d'exhalation du radon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ielsch, G

    2001-07-01

    Radon 222 is a radioactive natural gas originating from the decay of radium 226 which itself originates from the decay of uranium 23 8 naturally present in rocks and soil. Inhalation of radon gas and its decay products is a potential health risk for man. Radon can accumulate in confined environments such as buildings, and is responsible for one third of the total radiological exposure of the general public to radiation. The problem of how to manage this risk then arises. The main difficulty encountered is due to the large variability of exposure to radon across the country. A prediction needs to be made of areas with the highest density of buildings with high radon levels. Exposure to radon varies depending on the degree of confinement of the habitat, the lifestyle of the occupants and particularly emission of radon from the surface of the soil on which the building is built. The purpose of this thesis is to elaborate a methodology for determining areas presenting a high potential for radon exhalation at the surface of the soil. The methodology adopted is based on quantification of radon exhalation at the surface, starting from a precise characterization of the main local geological and pedological parameters that control the radon source and its transport to the ground/atmosphere interface. The methodology proposed is innovative in that it combines a cartographic analysis, parameters integrated into a Geographic Information system, and a simplified model for vertical transport of radon by diffusion through pores in the soil. This methodology has been validated on two typical areas, in different geological contexts, and gives forecasts that generally agree with field observations. This makes it possible to identify areas with a high exhalation potential within a range of a few square kilometers. (author)

  7. Development of a predictive methodology for identifying high radon exhalation potential areas; Mise au point d'une methodologie predictive des zones a fort potentiel d'exhalation du radon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ielsch, G

    2001-07-01

    Radon 222 is a radioactive natural gas originating from the decay of radium 226 which itself originates from the decay of uranium 23 8 naturally present in rocks and soil. Inhalation of radon gas and its decay products is a potential health risk for man. Radon can accumulate in confined environments such as buildings, and is responsible for one third of the total radiological exposure of the general public to radiation. The problem of how to manage this risk then arises. The main difficulty encountered is due to the large variability of exposure to radon across the country. A prediction needs to be made of areas with the highest density of buildings with high radon levels. Exposure to radon varies depending on the degree of confinement of the habitat, the lifestyle of the occupants and particularly emission of radon from the surface of the soil on which the building is built. The purpose of this thesis is to elaborate a methodology for determining areas presenting a high potential for radon exhalation at the surface of the soil. The methodology adopted is based on quantification of radon exhalation at the surface, starting from a precise characterization of the main local geological and pedological parameters that control the radon source and its transport to the ground/atmosphere interface. The methodology proposed is innovative in that it combines a cartographic analysis, parameters integrated into a Geographic Information system, and a simplified model for vertical transport of radon by diffusion through pores in the soil. This methodology has been validated on two typical areas, in different geological contexts, and gives forecasts that generally agree with field observations. This makes it possible to identify areas with a high exhalation potential within a range of a few square kilometers. (author)

  8. Predicting Consumer Biomass, Size-Structure, Production, Catch Potential, Responses to Fishing and Associated Uncertainties in the World’s Marine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Simon; Collingridge, Kate

    2015-01-01

    Existing estimates of fish and consumer biomass in the world’s oceans are disparate. This creates uncertainty about the roles of fish and other consumers in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem processes, the extent of human and environmental impacts and fishery potential. We develop and use a size-based macroecological model to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on predicted consumer biomass, production and distribution. Resulting uncertainty is large (e.g. median global biomass 4.9 billion tonnes for consumers weighing 1 g to 1000 kg; 50% uncertainty intervals of 2 to 10.4 billion tonnes; 90% uncertainty intervals of 0.3 to 26.1 billion tonnes) and driven primarily by uncertainty in trophic transfer efficiency and its relationship with predator-prey body mass ratios. Even the upper uncertainty intervals for global predictions of consumer biomass demonstrate the remarkable scarcity of marine consumers, with less than one part in 30 million by volume of the global oceans comprising tissue of macroscopic animals. Thus the apparently high densities of marine life seen in surface and coastal waters and frequently visited abundance hotspots will likely give many in society a false impression of the abundance of marine animals. Unexploited baseline biomass predictions from the simple macroecological model were used to calibrate a more complex size- and trait-based model to estimate fisheries yield and impacts. Yields are highly dependent on baseline biomass and fisheries selectivity. Predicted global sustainable fisheries yield increases ≈4 fold when smaller individuals (production estimates, which have yet to be achieved with complex models, and will therefore help to highlight priorities for future research and data collection. However, the focus on simple model structures and global processes means that non-phytoplankton primary production and several groups, structures and processes of ecological and conservation interest are not represented

  9. Minimal invasive biopsy results of 'uncertain malignant potential' in digital mammography screening. High prevalence but also high predictive value for malignancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weigel, S.; Heindel, W.; Universitaetsklinikum Muenster; Decker, T.; Universitaetsklinikum Muenster; Korsching, E.; Biesheuvel, C.; Woestmann, A.; Boecker, W.; Hungermann, D.; Roterberg, K.; Tio, J.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the rate, the histological spectrum and the positive predictive value (PPV) for malignancy of minimally invasive biopsies with 'uncertain malignant potential (B3)' in digital mammography screening. Methods and Materials: Consecutive data of 37 178 participants of one digital unit of the German screening program were included. Results: The B 3 rate was 15.1 % (148/979). The frequencies of lesion subtypes were as follows: atypical epithelial proliferation of ductal type (AEPDT) 35.1 % (52/148), radial scar (RS) 28.4 % (42/148), papillary lesions (PAP) 20.3 % (30/148), lobular carcinoma in situ 8.8 % (13/148), flat epithelial atypia 5.4 % (8/148), and mucocele-like lesions 2.0 % (3/148). The PPV for malignancy in surgical excisions was overall 0.28 (25/91); in detail 0.40 (19/47) for AEPDT, 0.20 (5/25) for RS, 0.08 (1/12) for PAP. Conclusion: Despite a higher B 3 rate of minimally invasive biopsies with 'uncertain malignant potential' in digital screening, the benign surgical biopsy rate is not disproportionally increased compared with analog screening programs. Together with defined management protocols, this results in an increased cancer detection rate per screening participant with surgical excision. (orig.)

  10. Minimal invasive biopsy results of 'uncertain malignant potential' in digital mammography screening. High prevalence but also high predictive value for malignancy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weigel, S.; Heindel, W. [Universitaetsklinikum Muenster (Germany). Inst. fuer Klinische Radiologie; Universitaetsklinikum Muenster (Germany). Referenzzentrum Mammographie; Decker, T. [Dietrich Bonhoeffer Klinikum, Neubrandenburg (Germany). Inst. fuer Pathologie; Universitaetsklinikum Muenster (Germany). Referenzzentrum Mammographie; Korsching, E. [Universitaetsklinikum Muenster (Germany). Inst. fuer Bioinformatik; Biesheuvel, C.; Woestmann, A.; Boecker, W. [Universitaetsklinikum Muenster (Germany). Referenzzentrum Mammographie; Hungermann, D. [Universitaetsklinikum Muenster (Germany). Gerhard-Domagk-Inst. fuer Pathologie; Roterberg, K.; Tio, J. [Universitaetsklinikum Muenster (Germany). Klinik und Poliklinik fuer Frauenheilkunde und Geburtshilfe, Bereich Senologie

    2011-08-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the rate, the histological spectrum and the positive predictive value (PPV) for malignancy of minimally invasive biopsies with 'uncertain malignant potential (B3)' in digital mammography screening. Methods and Materials: Consecutive data of 37 178 participants of one digital unit of the German screening program were included. Results: The B 3 rate was 15.1 % (148/979). The frequencies of lesion subtypes were as follows: atypical epithelial proliferation of ductal type (AEPDT) 35.1 % (52/148), radial scar (RS) 28.4 % (42/148), papillary lesions (PAP) 20.3 % (30/148), lobular carcinoma in situ 8.8 % (13/148), flat epithelial atypia 5.4 % (8/148), and mucocele-like lesions 2.0 % (3/148). The PPV for malignancy in surgical excisions was overall 0.28 (25/91); in detail 0.40 (19/47) for AEPDT, 0.20 (5/25) for RS, 0.08 (1/12) for PAP. Conclusion: Despite a higher B 3 rate of minimally invasive biopsies with 'uncertain malignant potential' in digital screening, the benign surgical biopsy rate is not disproportionally increased compared with analog screening programs. Together with defined management protocols, this results in an increased cancer detection rate per screening participant with surgical excision. (orig.)

  11. The validity of the potential model in predicting the structural, dynamical, thermodynamic properties of the unary and binary mixture of water-alcohol: Methanol-water case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obeidat, Abdalla; Abu-Ghazleh, Hind

    2018-06-01

    Two intermolecular potential models of methanol (TraPPE-UA and OPLS-AA) have been used in order to examine their validity in reproducing the selected structural, dynamical, and thermodynamic properties in the unary and binary systems. These two models are combined with two water models (SPC/E and TIP4P). The temperature dependence of density, surface tension, diffusion and structural properties for the unary system has been computed over specific range of temperatures (200-300K). The very good performance of the TraPPE-UA potential model in predicting surface tension, diffusion, structure, and density of the unary system led us to examine its accuracy and performance in its aqueous solution. In the binary system the same properties were examined, using different mole fractions of methanol. The TraPPE-UA model combined with TIP4P-water shows a very good agreement with the experimental results for density and surface tension properties; whereas the OPLS-AA combined with SPCE-water shows a very agreement with experimental results regarding the diffusion coefficients. Two different approaches have been used in calculating the diffusion coefficient in the mixture, namely the Einstein equation (EE) and Green-Kubo (GK) method. Our results show the advantageous of applying GK over EE in reproducing the experimental results and in saving computer time.

  12. A proposal for a pharmacokinetic interaction significance classification system (PISCS) based on predicted drug exposure changes and its potential application to alert classifications in product labelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisaka, Akihiro; Kusama, Makiko; Ohno, Yoshiyuki; Sugiyama, Yuichi; Suzuki, Hiroshi

    2009-01-01

    Pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are one of the major causes of adverse events in pharmacotherapy, and systematic prediction of the clinical relevance of DDIs is an issue of significant clinical importance. In a previous study, total exposure changes of many substrate drugs of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4 caused by coadministration of inhibitor drugs were successfully predicted by using in vivo information. In order to exploit these predictions in daily pharmacotherapy, the clinical significance of the pharmacokinetic changes needs to be carefully evaluated. The aim of the present study was to construct a pharmacokinetic interaction significance classification system (PISCS) in which the clinical significance of DDIs was considered with pharmacokinetic changes in a systematic manner. Furthermore, the classifications proposed by PISCS were compared in a detailed manner with current alert classifications in the product labelling or the summary of product characteristics used in Japan, the US and the UK. A matrix table was composed by stratifying two basic parameters of the prediction: the contribution ratio of CYP3A4 to the oral clearance of substrates (CR), and the inhibition ratio of inhibitors (IR). The total exposure increase was estimated for each cell in the table by associating CR and IR values, and the cells were categorized into nine zones according to the magnitude of the exposure increase. Then, correspondences between the DDI significance and the zones were determined for each drug group considering the observed exposure changes and the current classification in the product labelling. Substrate drugs of CYP3A4 selected from three therapeutic groups, i.e. HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins), calcium-channel antagonists/blockers (CCBs) and benzodiazepines (BZPs), were analysed as representative examples. The product labelling descriptions of drugs in Japan, US and UK were obtained from the websites of each regulatory body. Among 220

  13. Bioaccumulation Potential Of Air Contaminants: Combining Biological Allometry, Chemical Equilibrium And Mass-Balances To Predict Accumulation Of Air Pollutants In Various Mammals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veltman, Karin; McKone, Thomas E.; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.; Hendriks, A. Jan

    2009-03-01

    In the present study we develop and test a uniform model intended for single compartment analysis in the context of human and environmental risk assessment of airborne contaminants. The new aspects of the model are the integration of biological allometry with fugacity-based mass-balance theory to describe exchange of contaminants with air. The developed model is applicable to various mammalian species and a range of chemicals, while requiring few and typically well-known input parameters, such as the adult mass and composition of the species, and the octanol-water and air-water partition coefficient of the chemical. Accumulation of organic chemicals is typically considered to be a function of the chemical affinity forlipid components in tissues. Here, we use a generic description of chemical affinity for neutral and polar lipids and proteins to estimate blood-air partition coefficients (Kba) and tissue-air partition coefficients (Kta) for various mammals. This provides a more accurate prediction of blood-air partition coefficients, as proteins make up a large fraction of total blood components. The results show that 75percent of the modeled inhalation and exhalation rate constants are within a factor of 2 from independent empirical values for humans, rats and mice, and 87percent of the predicted blood-air partition coefficients are within a factor of 5 from empirical data. At steady-state, the bioaccumulation potential of air pollutants is shown to be mainly a function of the tissue-air partition coefficient and the biotransformation capacity of the species and depends weakly on the ventilation rate and the cardiac output of mammals.

  14. Biomarker case-detection and prediction with potential for functional psychosis screening: development and validation of a model related to biochemistry, sensory neural timing and end organ performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie eFryar-Williams

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Mental Health Biomarker Project aimed to discover case-predictive biomarkers for functional psychosis. In a retrospective, cross-sectional study, candidate marker results from 67, highly-characterized symptomatic participants were compared with results from 67 gender and age matched controls. Urine samples were analysed for catecholamines, their metabolites and hydroxylpyrolline-2-one, an oxidative stress marker. Blood samples were analyzed for vitamin and trace element cofactors of enzymes in the catecholamine synthesis and metabolism pathways. Cognitive, auditory and visual processing measures were assessed using a simple 45 minute, office-based procedure. Receiver Operating Curve (ROC and Odds Ratio analysis discovered biomarkers for deficits in folate, vitamin D and B6 and elevations in free copper to zinc ratio, catecholamines and the oxidative stress marker. Deficits were discovered in peripheral visual and auditory end-organ function, intra-cerebral auditory and visual processing speed and dichotic-listening performance. 15 ROC biomarker variables were divided into 5 functional domains. Through a repeated ROC process, individual ROC variables, followed by domains and finally the overall 15 set model, were dichotomously scored and tallied for abnormal results upon which it was found that ≥ 3 out of 5 abnormal domains achieved an AUC of 0.952 with a sensitivity of 84 per cent and a specificity of 90 percent. Six additional middle ear biomarkers in a 21 biomarker set increased sensitivity to 94% percent. Fivefold cross-validation yielded a mean sensitivity of 85% for the 15 biomarker set. Non-parametric regression analysis confirmed that ≥ 3 out of 5 abnormally scored domains predicted > 50% risk of case-ness whilst 4 abnormally-scored domains predicted 88% risk of case-ness and 100% diagnostic certainty was reached when all 5 domains were abnormally scored. These findings require validation in prospective cohorts and other mental

  15. RNA Microarray Analysis of Macroscopically Normal Articular Cartilage from Knees Undergoing Partial Medial Meniscectomy: Potential Prediction of the Risk for Developing Osteoarthritis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Farooq Rai

    Full Text Available (i To provide baseline knowledge of gene expression in macroscopically normal articular cartilage, (ii to test the hypothesis that age, body-mass-index (BMI, and sex are associated with cartilage RNA transcriptome, and (iii to predict individuals at potential risk for developing "pre-osteoarthritis" (OA based on screening of genetic risk-alleles associated with OA and gene transcripts differentially expressed between normal and OA cartilage.Healthy-appearing cartilage was obtained from the medial femoral notch of 12 knees with a meniscus tear undergoing arthroscopic partial meniscectomy. Cartilage had no radiographic, magnetic-resonance-imaging or arthroscopic evidence for degeneration. RNA was subjected to Affymetrix microarrays followed by validation of selected transcripts by microfluidic digital polymerase-chain-reaction. The underlying biological processes were explored computationally. Transcriptome-wide gene expression was probed for association with known OA genetic risk-alleles assembled from published literature and for comparison with gene transcripts differentially expressed between healthy and OA cartilage from other studies.We generated a list of 27,641 gene transcripts in healthy cartilage. Several gene transcripts representing numerous biological processes were correlated with age and BMI and differentially expressed by sex. Based on disease-specific Ingenuity Pathways Analysis, gene transcripts associated with aging were enriched for bone/cartilage disease while the gene expression profile associated with BMI was enriched for growth-plate calcification and OA. When segregated by genetic risk-alleles, two clusters of study patients emerged, one cluster containing transcripts predicted by risk studies. When segregated by OA-associated gene transcripts, three clusters of study patients emerged, one of which is remarkably similar to gene expression pattern in OA.Our study provides a list of gene transcripts in healthy

  16. Getting the Right Answers for the Right Reasons: Toward Predictive Molecular Simulations of Water with Many-Body Potential Energy Functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paesani, Francesco

    2016-09-20

    The central role played by water in fundamental processes relevant to different disciplines, including chemistry, physics, biology, materials science, geology, and climate research, cannot be overemphasized. It is thus not surprising that, since the pioneering work by Stillinger and Rahman, many theoretical and computational studies have attempted to develop a microscopic description of the unique properties of water under different thermodynamic conditions. Consequently, numerous molecular models based on either molecular mechanics or ab initio approaches have been proposed over the years. However, despite continued progress, the correct prediction of the properties of water from small gas-phase clusters to the liquid phase and ice through a single molecular model remains challenging. To large extent, this is due to the difficulties encountered in the accurate modeling of the underlying hydrogen-bond network in which both number and strength of the hydrogen bonds vary continuously as a result of a subtle interplay between energetic, entropic, and nuclear quantum effects. In the past decade, the development of efficient algorithms for correlated electronic structure calculations of small molecular complexes, accompanied by tremendous progress in the analytical representation of multidimensional potential energy surfaces, opened the doors to the design of highly accurate potential energy functions built upon rigorous representations of the many-body expansion (MBE) of the interaction energies. This Account provides a critical overview of the performance of the MB-pol many-body potential energy function through a systematic analysis of energetic, structural, thermodynamic, and dynamical properties as well as of vibrational spectra of water from the gas to the condensed phase. It is shown that MB-pol achieves unprecedented accuracy across all phases of water through a quantitative description of each individual term of the MBE, with a physically correct representation

  17. Computational prediction of vaccine potential epitopes and 3-dimensional structure of XAGE-1b for non-small cell lung cancer immunotherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad M. Tarek

    2018-04-01

    Conclusions: This study predicted a model of XAGE-1b tertiary structure which could explain its antigenic function and facilitate usage of predicted peptides for experimental validation towards designing immunotherapies against NSCLC.

  18. Kinetic isotope effects in the CH4 + H→CH3 + H2 system. Predictions of the LMR six-body potential-energy reaction hypersurface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marriott, T.D.

    1976-01-01

    Scope of Study: The purpose of this study was two-fold. First, it served to test, in part, the usefulness of the LMR six-body potential-energy surface (LMR-PES) for transition-state theory predictions of the kinetic isotope effects for both the forward and reverse reactions of CH 4 + H reversible CH 3 + H 2 . In this regard the agreement between experimental and theoretical isotope effects, assuming the former to be accurate, provides information about the accuracy of the curvature of the potential energy surface for motion both parallel and perpendicular to the reaction coordinate. Second, these isotope effects were used to assess the validity of a number of qualitative and semi-quantitative interpretations of kinetic isotope effects developed in physical organic chemistry with regard to this reaction system. The force constants and geometries obtained numerically from the LMR-PES were found to produce reasonable harmonic approximations to the reactant normal mode frequencies. Neglecting tunneling, the LMR-PES reasonably reproduces the experimental k/sub H//k/sub D/ values for the reactions CH 4 + H(D), CH 3 + HD(DH) and CD 2 + HD(DH). Since previous theoretical treatments of primary deuterium kinetic isotope effects have neglected the bending normal mode frequencies, a semi-quantitative study of the effect of neglecting bending frequencies on the VP, EXC, and ZPE elements as well as the transition-state theory kinetic isotope effects was performed. The Swain-Schaad relationship between primary deuterium and tritium kinetic isotope effects was shown to hold to a reasonable degree of accuracy for the LMR-PES reaction system. A relationship between 13-carbon and 14-carbon kinetic isotope effects similar to the Swain-Schaad relationship was derived

  19. [Mortality in patients with potentially severe trauma in a tertiary care hospital emergency department and evaluation of risk prediction with the GAP prognostic scale].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín Quirós, Alejandro; Borobia Pérez, Alberto; Pertejo Fernández, Ana; Pérez Perilla, Patricia; Rivera Núñez, Angélica; Martínez Virto, Ana María; Quintana Díaz, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    To assess mortality in patients with potentially severe injuries and explore the correlation between mortality and the score on the GAP scale (Glasgow Coma Scale, age, and systolic blood pressure). Retrospective observational study of all patients with potentially severe injuries treated in an emergency department (ED) over a period of 15 months. We recorded epidemiologic variables, cause of injury, type of transport, need for prehospital orotracheal intubation, substance abuse, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), variables for the GAP prognostic score, destination on discharge from the ED and at the end of the episode, and mortality. Data for 864 patients entered the final analysis. Mortality was higher in older patients (mean [SD] age, 57.9 [26.6] vs 41.1 [17.4], P<.05) and those with a higher mean CCI (3.3 [2.9] vs 0.9 [1.7]). Accident type was a precipitating factor associated with mortality (P<.001), but substance abuse was unrelated. Patients who died had lower mean Glasgow scores (9.1 [5.3] vs 14.8 [1.2], P<.001) and lower mean systolic and diastolic pressures (respectively, 113.8 [19.8] vs 131.3 [20.7] mm Hg, P=.012, and 60.1 [16.8] vs 77.7 [11.7] mm Hg, P=.002). Patients who died also had lower mean GAP scores than survivors (15.1 [4.8] vs 22.6 [1.7], P<.001). Risk factors that remained significant in the multivariate analysis were CCI (odds ratio [OR], 0.704; 95% CI, 0.52-0.96) and GAP score (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.45-2.20). Mortality in our patient series was lower than rates in previously published reports. The GAP score was a useful tool for predicting mortality in the series we studied.

  20. Application of BALB/c mouse in the local lymph node assay:BrdU-ELISA for the prediction of the skin sensitizing potential of chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Fenxia; Xing, Caihong; Li, Bin; Cheng, Juan; Chen, Wei; Zhang, Man

    2015-01-01

    , positive predictivity values and negative predictivity values in this study, which could indicate the performance of the LLNA:BrdU-ELISA using BALB/c mouse, were not different statistically from that of the validation study for the LLNA:BrdU-ELISA using CBA/JN mouse. This validation study indicates that BALB/c mouse could be used alternatively in the LLNA:BrdU-ELISA for the prediction of the skin sensitizing potential of chemicals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Hydrogeophysical investigation of groundwater potential and aquifer vulnerability prediction in basement complex terrain – A case study from Akure, Southwestern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akinrinade Opeyemi J.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study provides a model for the prediction of groundwater potential and vulnerability of basement aquifers in parts of Akure, Southwestern Nigeria. Hydrogeophysical surveys involving very-low-frequency electromagnetic (VLF-EM profiling and electrical resistivity (ER sounding, as well as evaluation of hydraulic gradient using three-point method, were carried out. Ten VLF-EM reconnaissance survey traverses, with lengths ranging from 55 m to 75 m, at 10 m station separation, and 12 vertical electrical sounding (VES stations were occupied. Two-dimensional map of the filtered real component reveals areas of high conductivity, indicative of linear features that can serve as a reservoir or conduit for fluid flow. Interpretation of the VES results delineates three to four geoelectric units. Two aquifer zones were identified, with resistivity values in the ranges of 20 Ωm to 310 Ωm and 100 Ωm to 3,000 Ω m, respectively. Transverse resistance, longitudinal conductance, coefficient of anisotropy and hydraulic gradient have values ranging from 318.2 Ωm2 to 1,041.8 Ωm2, 0.11 mhos to 0.39 mhos, 1.04 to 1.74 and 0.017 to 0.05, respectively. The results of this study identified two prospective borehole locations and the optimum position to site the proposed septic system, based on the aquifer’s protective capacity and groundwater flow properties.

  2. Plasma alpha-1-acid glycoprotein as a potential predictive biomarker for non-haematological adverse events of docetaxel in breast cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabir, Rafid Salim; Ho, Gwo Fuang; Annuar, Muhammad Azrif Bin Ahmad; Stanslas, Johnson

    2018-03-01

    Rash and oral mucositis are major non-haematological adverse events (AEs) of docetaxel, in addition to fatigue, nausea, vomiting and diarrhoea, which restrict the use of the drug in cancer therapy. Alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AAG) is an acute phase reactant glycoprotein and is a primary carrier of docetaxel in the blood. Docetaxel has extensive binding (>98%) to plasma proteins such as AAG, lipoproteins and albumin. To study the association between plasma AAG level and non-haematological AEs of docetaxel in Malaysian breast cancer patients of three major ethnic groups (Malays, Chinese and Indians). One hundred and twenty Malaysian breast cancer patients receiving docetaxel as single agent chemotherapy were investigated for AAG plasma level using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay technique. Toxicity assessment was determined using Common Terminology Criteria of Adverse Events v4.0. The association between AAG and toxicity were then established. There was interethnic variation of plasma AAG level; it was 182 ± 85 mg/dl in Chinese, 237 ± 94 mg/dl in Malays and 240 ± 83 mg/dl in Indians. It was found that low plasma levels of AAG were significantly associated with oral mucositis and rash. This study proposes plasma AAG as a potential predictive biomarker of docetaxel non-haematological AEs namely oral mucositis and rash.

  3. Near-edge band structures and band gaps of Cu-based semiconductors predicted by the modified Becke-Johnson potential plus an on-site Coulomb U

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yubo; Zhang, Jiawei; Wang, Youwei; Gao, Weiwei; Abtew, Tesfaye A.; Zhang, Peihong; Zhang, Wenqing

    2013-01-01

    Diamond-like Cu-based multinary semiconductors are a rich family of materials that hold promise in a wide range of applications. Unfortunately, accurate theoretical understanding of the electronic properties of these materials is hindered by the involvement of Cu d electrons. Density functional theory (DFT) based calculations using the local density approximation or generalized gradient approximation often give qualitative wrong electronic properties of these materials, especially for narrow-gap systems. The modified Becke-Johnson (mBJ) method has been shown to be a promising alternative to more elaborate theory such as the GW approximation for fast materials screening and predictions. However, straightforward applications of the mBJ method to these materials still encounter significant difficulties because of the insufficient treatment of the localized d electrons. We show that combining the promise of mBJ potential and the spirit of the well-established DFT + U method leads to a much improved description of the electronic structures, including the most challenging narrow-gap systems. A survey of the band gaps of about 20 Cu-based semiconductors calculated using the mBJ + U method shows that the results agree with reliable values to within ±0.2 eV

  4. Predictive potential of the relationship between values, depression, comorbidity and the perception of quality of life in the elderly rehabilitation clients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tone Brejc

    2002-05-01

    Full Text Available The research objective was to study the predictive potential of the relationship between personal values, depression, comorbidity and the perception of quality of life in 80 older rehabilitation clients, aged 65 years and more with the average age 74,4 years, suffering from serious injury or stroke and referred to geriatric rehabilitation unit of Rehabilitation Institute in Ljubljana, Slovenia. Controlled for age, gender, and disability were used correlational, multiple regression, and multivariate analysis of variables, assessed by Pogačnik's Personal Values Scale, Yesavage's Geriatric Depression Scale, and Charlson's comorbidity index (CMI and WHO Quality of Life Scale-BREF. The results revealed the preference of values of security, affiliation and traditional ethics, reflecting hierarchical change only due to age, not to gender, disability or comorbidity. Depression was not influenced by the personal values, which, conversely, had no significant impact on the perceived quality of life, being assessed as good. The perceived quality of life was negatively associated with functional disability and psychological disatisfaction, and positively with social relationships and evironmental support. Depression was moderate, situationally caused and the only predictor of the perceived quality of life. The results provide support for the conclusion that efforts invested in establishment and maintenance of adequate life conditions of the older rehabilitation patients, enhancing and supporting their feelings of personal strenght, competence and independence may serve better in management of their depression and perceived quality of life than direct counselling interventions focused on changing their values and attitudes.

  5. Evaluation of the Predictive Value of Intraoperative Changes in Motor-Evoked Potentials of Caudal Cranial Nerves for the Postoperative Functional Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kullmann, Marcel; Tatagiba, Marcos; Liebsch, Marina; Feigl, Guenther C

    2016-11-01

    The predictive value of changes in intraoperatively acquired motor-evoked potentials (MEPs) of the lower cranial nerves (LCN) IX-X (glossopharyngeal-vagus nerve) and CN XII (hypoglossal nerve) on operative outcomes was investigated. MEPs of CN IX-X and CN XII were recorded intraoperatively in 63 patients undergoing surgery of the posterior cranial fossa. We correlated the changes of the MEPs with postoperative nerve function. For CN IX-X, we found a correlation between the amplitude of the MEP ratio and uvula deviation (P = 0.028) and the amplitude duration of the MEP and gag reflex function (P = 0.027). Patients with an MEP ratio of the glossopharyngeal-vagus amplitude ≤1.47 μV had a 3.4 times increased risk of developing a uvula deviation. Patients with a final MEP duration of the CN IX-X ≤11.6 milliseconds had a 3.6 times increased risk for their gag reflex to become extinct. Our study greatly contributes to the current knowledge of intraoperative MEPs as a predictor for postoperative cranial nerve function. We were able to extent previous findings on MEP values of the facial nerve on postoperative nerve function to 3 additional cranial nerves. Finding reliable predictors for postoperative nerve function is of great importance to the overall quality of life for a patient undergoing surgery of the posterior cranial fossa. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

    2016-12-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

  7. Phosphate is a potential biomarker of disease severity and predicts adverse outcomes in acute kidney injury patients undergoing continuous renal replacement therapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su-Young Jung

    Full Text Available Hyperphosphatemia is associated with mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease, and is common in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury (AKI; however, its clinical implication in these patients is unknown. We conducted an observational study in 1144 patients (mean age, 63.2 years; male, 705 [61.6%] with AKI who received continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT between January 2009 and September 2016. Phosphate levels were measured before (0 h and 24 h after CRRT initiation. We assessed disease severity using various clinical parameters. Phosphate at 0 h positively correlated with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II; P < 0.001 and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA; P < 0.001 scores, and inversely with mean arterial pressure (MAP; P = 0.02 and urine output (UO; P = 0.01. In a fully adjusted linear regression analysis for age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI, MAP, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, higher 0 h phosphate level was significantly associated with high APACHE II (P < 0.001 and SOFA (P = 0.04 scores, suggesting that phosphate represents disease severity. A multivariable Cox model also showed that hyperphosphatemia was significantly associated with increased 28-day (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08, P = 0.001 and 90-day (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08, P = 0.001 mortality. Furthermore, patients with increased phosphate level during 24 h were at higher risk of death than those with stable or decreased phosphate levels. Finally, c-statistics significantly increased when phosphate was added to a model that included age, sex, CCI, body mass index, eGFR, MAP, hemoglobin, serum albumin, C-reactive protein, and APACHE II score. This study shows that phosphate is a potential biomarker that can reflect disease severity and predict mortality in critically ill patients receiving CRRT.

  8. Use of ecological niche modeling as a tool for predicting the potential distribution of Microcystis sp (cyanobacteria in the Aguamilpa Dam, Nayarit, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Martinez-Meyer

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Ecological niche modeling is an important tool to evaluate the spatial distribution of terrestrial species, however, its applicability has been little explored in the aquatic environment. Microcystis sp., a species of cyanobacteria, is widely recognized for its ability to produce a group of toxins known as microcystins, which can cause death of animals as fish, birds and mammals depending on the amount of toxin absorbed. Like any taxonomic group, cyanobacteria has environmental thresholds, therefore, a suitable ecological niche will define their distribution. This study was conducted in Aguamilpa Hydroelectric Reservoir, an artificial ecosystem that started operations in 1994. In this system we evaluated the potential distribution of Microcystis sp., by generating a prediction model based on the concept of ecological niche MAXENT, using a Digital Elevation Model in cells of 100 m x 100 m (1 ha spatial resolution and monitoring eleven physicochemical and biological variables and nutrients in water. The distribution maps were developed using ArcMap 9.2®. The results indicated that Microcystis sp., is distributed mainly in the upper tributary basin (Huaynamota basin during the dry season. There was less chance to find cyanobacteria in the entire system during the cold dry season, while during the warm dry season cyanobacteria was recognized at the confluence of two rivers. During the rainfall season there were no reports of cyanobacteria presence. This species is often associated with arising trophic processes of anthropogenic origin; therefore, attention is required in specific areas that have been identified in this work to improve Aguamilpa’s watershed management and restoration. It was also recognized the importance of phosphorus and nitrogen interaction, which determines the distribution of Microcystis sp., in the Aguamilpa Reservoir. The results of this study demonstrated that ecological niche modeling was a suitable tool to assess the

  9. Regulatory T cell frequency, but not plasma IL-33 levels, represents potential immunological biomarker to predict clinical response to intravenous immunoglobulin therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maddur, Mohan S; Stephen-Victor, Emmanuel; Das, Mrinmoy; Prakhar, Praveen; Sharma, Varun K; Singh, Vikas; Rabin, Magalie; Trinath, Jamma; Balaji, Kithiganahalli N; Bolgert, Francis; Vallat, Jean-Michel; Magy, Laurent; Kaveri, Srini V; Bayry, Jagadeesh

    2017-03-20

    Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is a polyspecific pooled immunoglobulin G preparation and one of the commonly used therapeutics for autoimmune diseases including those of neurological origin. A recent report in murine model proposed that IVIG expands regulatory T (T reg ) cells via induction of interleukin 33 (IL-33). However, translational insight on these observations is lacking. Ten newly diagnosed Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) patients were treated with IVIG at the rate of 0.4 g/kg for three to five consecutive days. Clinical evaluation for muscular weakness was performed by Medical Research Council (MRC) and modified Rankin scoring (MRS) system. Heparinized blood samples were collected before and 1, 2, and 4-5 weeks post-IVIG therapy. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were stained for surface CD4 and intracellular Foxp3, IFN-γ, and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and were analyzed by flow cytometry. IL-33 and prostaglandin E2 in the plasma were measured by ELISA. The fold changes in plasma IL-33 at week 1 showed no correlation with the MRC and MRS scores at weeks 1, 2, and ≥4 post-IVIG therapy. Clinical recovery following IVIG therapy appears to be associated with T reg cell response. Contrary to murine study, there was no association between the fold changes in IL-33 at week 1 and T reg cell frequency at weeks 1, 2, and ≥4 post-IVIG therapy. T reg cell-mediated clinical response to IVIG therapy in GBS patients was associated with reciprocal regulation of effector T cells-expressing TNF-α. T reg cell expansion by IVIG in patients with autoimmune diseases lack correlation with IL-33. T reg cell frequency, but not plasma IL-33 levels, represents potential immunological biomarker to predict clinical response to IVIG therapy.

  10. IL-6 is a potential marker for radiation pneumonitis: a prospective clinical study of circulating cytokines in predicting radiation pulmonary injury

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yuhchyau; Rubin, Philip; McDonald, Sandra; Finkelstein, Jacob; Smudzin, Therese; Hernady, Eric; Williams, Jacqueline

    1997-01-01

    Purpose/Objective: The use of radiotherapy in eradicating thoracic malignancy is limited by the normal lung tissue tolerance to ionizing radiation. Subacute and late radiation pulmonary toxicity manifests as radiation pneumonitis and ultimately lung fibrosis. Recently, the addition of chemotherapy or a biologic response modifier to radiation has become the standard therapy for inoperable lung cancer. The radiosensitizing effect of these agents is associated with an increased risk of radiation pulmonary injury and treatment related mortality. The search for a serum marker for predicting radiation pulmonary injury will help us understand the mechanism leading to such events and find possible interventions to prevent the adverse outcome. Unpublished data from our laboratory suggested that following a single dose of radiation, there was a dose-related elevation in IL-6 protein levels in the lung of radiation fibrosis prone mice. Based on this information, a prospective clinical study of circulating cytokine levels and its application to predict radiation induced pulmonary injury was conducted at University of Rochester. Preliminary results revealed promising information in identifying a circulating cytokine as a predictor for radiation pneumonitis. Materials and Methods: Eighteen patients receiving thoracic irradiation for primary thoracic malignancy were registered in the study. Radiation pneumonitis was determined by subjective respiratory symptoms assessed according to RTOG morbidity scoring criteria. Pretreatment and serial post-therapy chest X-ray, chest CT scan and pulmonary function tests were obtained. Radiation fibrosis was determined by radiographic changes in irradiated normal lung using a scoring system which quantified the extent of loss of air content, degree of opacification, anatomic extent of involvement, air bronchogram, pleural thickening, or effusion. Plasma levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor (TNF), transforming growth factor

  11. Factors predicting the feasibility of monitoring lower-limb muscle motor evoked potentials in patients undergoing excision of spinal cord tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajshekhar, Vedantam; Velayutham, Parthiban; Joseph, Mathew; Babu, K Srinivasa

    2011-06-01

    This prospective study on intraoperative muscle motor evoked potentials (MMEPs) from lower-limb muscles in patients undergoing surgery for spinal cord tumors was performed to: 1) determine preoperative clinical features that could predict successful recording of lower-limb MMEPs; 2) determine the muscle in the lower limb from which MMEPs could be most consistently obtained; 3) assess the need to monitor more than 1 muscle per limb; and 4) determine the effect of a successful baseline MMEP recording on early postoperative motor outcome. Of 115 consecutive patients undergoing surgery for spinal cord tumors, 110 were included in this study (44 intramedullary and 66 intradural extramedullary tumors). Muscle MEPs were generated using transcranial electrical stimulation under controlled anesthesia and were recorded from the tibialis anterior, quadriceps, soleus, and external anal sphincter muscles bilaterally. The effect of age (≤ 20 or > 20 years old), location of the tumor (intramedullary or extramedullary), segmental location of the tumor (cervical, thoracic, or lumbar), duration of symptoms (≤ 12 or > 12 months), preoperative functional grade (Nurick Grades 0-3 or 4-5), and muscle power (Medical Research Council Grades 0/5-3/5 or 4/5-5/5) on the success rate of obtaining MMEPs was studied using multiple regression analysis. The effect of the ability to monitor MMEPs on motor outcome at discharge from the hospital was also analyzed. The overall success rate for obtaining baseline lower-limb MMEPs was 68.2% (75 of 110 patients). Eighty-nine percent of patients with Nurick Grades 0-3 had successful MMEP recordings. Muscle MEPs could not be obtained in any patient in whom muscle power was 2/5 or less, but were obtained from 91.4% of patients with muscle power of 4/5 or more. Analysis showed that only preoperative Nurick grade (p ≤ 0.0001) and muscle power (p < 0.0001) were significant predictors of the likelihood of obtaining MMEPs. Responses were most consistently

  12. Assessment of potential for small hydro/solar power integration in a mountainous, data sparse region: the role of hydrological prediction accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borga, Marco; Francois, Baptiste; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Hingray, Benoit; Zoccatelli, Davide; Tardivo, Gianmarco

    2015-04-01

    In many parts of the world, integration of small hydropower and solar/wind energy sources along river systems is examined as a way to meet pressing renewable energy targets. Depending on the space and time scales considered, hydrometeorological variability may synchronize or desynchronize solar/wind, runoff and the demand opening the possibility to use their complementarity to smooth the intermittency of each individual energy source. Rivers also provide important ecosystem services, including the provision of high quality downstream water supply and the maintenance of in-stream habitats. With future supply and demand of water resources both impacted by environmental change, a good understanding of the potential for the integration among hydropower and solar/wind energy sources in often sparsely gauged catchments is important. In such cases, where complex data-demanding models may be inappropriate, there is a need for simple conceptual modelling approaches that can still capture the main features of runoff generation and artificial regulation processes. In this work we focus on run-of-the-river and solar-power interaction assessment. In order to catch the three key cycles of the load fluctuation - daily, weekly and seasonal, the time step used in the study is the hourly resolution. We examine the performance of a conceptual hydrological model which includes facilities to model dam regulation and diversions and hydrological modules to account for the effect of glaciarised catchments. The model is applied to catchments of the heavily regulated Upper Adige river system (6900 km2), Eastern Italian Alps, which has a long history of hydropower generation. The model is used to characterize and predict the natural flow regime, assess the regulation impacts, and simulate co-fluctuations between run-of- the-river and solar power. The results demonstrates that the simple, conceptual modelling approach developed here can capture the main hydrological and regulation processes

  13. Predicting chemically-induced skin reactions. Part I: QSAR models of skin sensitization and their application to identify potentially hazardous compounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alves, Vinicius M. [Laboratory of Molecular Modeling and Design, Faculty of Pharmacy, Federal University of Goiás, Goiânia, GO 74605-220 (Brazil); Laboratory for Molecular Modeling, Division of Chemical Biology and Medicinal Chemistry, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States); Muratov, Eugene [Laboratory for Molecular Modeling, Division of Chemical Biology and Medicinal Chemistry, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States); Laboratory of Theoretical Chemistry, A.V. Bogatsky Physical-Chemical Institute NAS of Ukraine, Odessa 65080 (Ukraine); Fourches, Denis [Laboratory for Molecular Modeling, Division of Chemical Biology and Medicinal Chemistry, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States); Strickland, Judy; Kleinstreuer, Nicole [ILS/Contractor Supporting the NTP Interagency Center for the Evaluation of Alternative Toxicological Methods (NICEATM), P.O. Box 13501, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 (United States); Andrade, Carolina H. [Laboratory of Molecular Modeling and Design, Faculty of Pharmacy, Federal University of Goiás, Goiânia, GO 74605-220 (Brazil); Tropsha, Alexander, E-mail: alex_tropsha@unc.edu [Laboratory for Molecular Modeling, Division of Chemical Biology and Medicinal Chemistry, Eshelman School of Pharmacy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 (United States)

    2015-04-15

    Repetitive exposure to a chemical agent can induce an immune reaction in inherently susceptible individuals that leads to skin sensitization. Although many chemicals have been reported as skin sensitizers, there have been very few rigorously validated QSAR models with defined applicability domains (AD) that were developed using a large group of chemically diverse compounds. In this study, we have aimed to compile, curate, and integrate the largest publicly available dataset related to chemically-induced skin sensitization, use this data to generate rigorously validated and QSAR models for skin sensitization, and employ these models as a virtual screening tool for identifying putative sensitizers among environmental chemicals. We followed best practices for model building and validation implemented with our predictive QSAR workflow using Random Forest modeling technique in combination with SiRMS and Dragon descriptors. The Correct Classification Rate (CCR) for QSAR models discriminating sensitizers from non-sensitizers was 71–88% when evaluated on several external validation sets, within a broad AD, with positive (for sensitizers) and negative (for non-sensitizers) predicted rates of 85% and 79% respectively. When compared to the skin sensitization module included in the OECD QSAR Toolbox as well as to the skin sensitization model in publicly available VEGA software, our models showed a significantly higher prediction accuracy for the same sets of external compounds as evaluated by Positive Predicted Rate, Negative Predicted Rate, and CCR. These models were applied to identify putative chemical hazards in the Scorecard database of possible skin or sense organ toxicants as primary candidates for experimental validation. - Highlights: • It was compiled the largest publicly-available skin sensitization dataset. • Predictive QSAR models were developed for skin sensitization. • Developed models have higher prediction accuracy than OECD QSAR Toolbox. • Putative

  14. Predicting chemically-induced skin reactions. Part I: QSAR models of skin sensitization and their application to identify potentially hazardous compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alves, Vinicius M.; Muratov, Eugene; Fourches, Denis; Strickland, Judy; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Andrade, Carolina H.; Tropsha, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Repetitive exposure to a chemical agent can induce an immune reaction in inherently susceptible individuals that leads to skin sensitization. Although many chemicals have been reported as skin sensitizers, there have been very few rigorously validated QSAR models with defined applicability domains (AD) that were developed using a large group of chemically diverse compounds. In this study, we have aimed to compile, curate, and integrate the largest publicly available dataset related to chemically-induced skin sensitization, use this data to generate rigorously validated and QSAR models for skin sensitization, and employ these models as a virtual screening tool for identifying putative sensitizers among environmental chemicals. We followed best practices for model building and validation implemented with our predictive QSAR workflow using Random Forest modeling technique in combination with SiRMS and Dragon descriptors. The Correct Classification Rate (CCR) for QSAR models discriminating sensitizers from non-sensitizers was 71–88% when evaluated on several external validation sets, within a broad AD, with positive (for sensitizers) and negative (for non-sensitizers) predicted rates of 85% and 79% respectively. When compared to the skin sensitization module included in the OECD QSAR Toolbox as well as to the skin sensitization model in publicly available VEGA software, our models showed a significantly higher prediction accuracy for the same sets of external compounds as evaluated by Positive Predicted Rate, Negative Predicted Rate, and CCR. These models were applied to identify putative chemical hazards in the Scorecard database of possible skin or sense organ toxicants as primary candidates for experimental validation. - Highlights: • It was compiled the largest publicly-available skin sensitization dataset. • Predictive QSAR models were developed for skin sensitization. • Developed models have higher prediction accuracy than OECD QSAR Toolbox. • Putative

  15. Enhanced Prediction of Src Homology 2 (SH2) Domain Binding Potentials Using a Fluorescence Polarization-derived c-Met, c-Kit, ErbB, and Androgen Receptor Interactome*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Kin K.; Hause, Ronald J.; Barkinge, John L.; Ciaccio, Mark F.; Chuu, Chih-Pin; Jones, Richard B.

    2014-01-01

    Many human diseases are associated with aberrant regulation of phosphoprotein signaling networks. Src homology 2 (SH2) domains represent the major class of protein domains in metazoans that interact with proteins phosphorylated on the amino acid residue tyrosine. Although current SH2 domain prediction algorithms perform well at predicting the sequences of phosphorylated peptides that are likely to result in the highest possible interaction affinity in the context of random peptide library screens, these algorithms do poorly at predicting the interaction potential of SH2 domains with physiologically derived protein sequences. We employed a high throughput interaction assay system to empirically determine the affinity between 93 human SH2 domains and phosphopeptides abstracted from several receptor tyrosine kinases and signaling proteins. The resulting interaction experiments revealed over 1000 novel peptide-protein interactions and provided a glimpse into the common and specific interaction potentials of c-Met, c-Kit, GAB1, and the human androgen receptor. We used these data to build a permutation-based logistic regression classifier that performed considerably better than existing algorithms for predicting the interaction potential of several SH2 domains. PMID:24728074

  16. Predicting chemically-induced skin reactions. Part I: QSAR models of skin sensitization and their application to identify potentially hazardous compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Vinicius M.; Muratov, Eugene; Fourches, Denis; Strickland, Judy; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Andrade, Carolina H.; Tropsha, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Repetitive exposure to a chemical agent can induce an immune reaction in inherently susceptible individuals that leads to skin sensitization. Although many chemicals have been reported as skin sensitizers, there have been very few rigorously validated QSAR models with defined applicability domains (AD) that were developed using a large group of chemically diverse compounds. In this study, we have aimed to compile, curate, and integrate the largest publicly available dataset related to chemically-induced skin sensitization, use this data to generate rigorously validated and QSAR models for skin sensitization, and employ these models as a virtual screening tool for identifying putative sensitizers among environmental chemicals. We followed best practices for model building and validation implemented with our predictive QSAR workflow using random forest modeling technique in combination with SiRMS and Dragon descriptors. The Correct Classification Rate (CCR) for QSAR models discriminating sensitizers from non-sensitizers were 71–88% when evaluated on several external validation sets, within a broad AD, with positive (for sensitizers) and negative (for non-sensitizers) predicted rates of 85% and 79% respectively. When compared to the skin sensitization module included in the OECD QSAR toolbox as well as to the skin sensitization model in publicly available VEGA software, our models showed a significantly higher prediction accuracy for the same sets of external compounds as evaluated by Positive Predicted Rate, Negative Predicted Rate, and CCR. These models were applied to identify putative chemical hazards in the ScoreCard database of possible skin or sense organ toxicants as primary candidates for experimental validation. PMID:25560674

  17. Predicting skin sensitization potential and inter-laboratory reproducibility of a human Cell Line Activation Test (h-CLAT) in the European Cosmetics Association (COLIPA) ring trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakaguchi, Hitoshi; Ryan, Cindy; Ovigne, Jean-Marc; Schroeder, Klaus R; Ashikaga, Takao

    2010-09-01

    Regulatory policies in Europe prohibited the testing of cosmetic ingredients in animals for a number of toxicological endpoints. Currently no validated non-animal test methods exist for skin sensitization. Evaluation of changes in cell surface marker expression in dendritic cell (DC)-surrogate cell lines represents one non-animal approach. The human Cell Line Activation Test (h-CLAT) examines the level of CD86 and CD54 expression on the surface of THP-1 cells, a human monocytic leukemia cell line, following 24h of chemical exposure. To examine protocol transferability, between-lab reproducibility, and predictive capacity, the h-CLAT has been evaluated by five independent laboratories in several ring trials (RTs) coordinated by the European Cosmetics Association (COLIPA). The results of the first and second RTs demonstrated that the protocol was transferable and basically had good between-lab reproducibility and predictivity, but there were some false negative data. To improve performance, protocol and prediction model were modified. Using the modified prediction model in the first and second RT, accuracy was improved. However, about 15% of the outcomes were not correctly identified, which exposes some of the limitations of the assay. For the chemicals evaluated, the limitation may due to chemical being a weak allergen or having low solubility (ex. alpha-hexylcinnamaldehyde). The third RT evaluated the modified prediction model and satisfactory results were obtained. From the RT data, the feasibility of utilizing cell lines as surrogate DC in development of in vitro skin sensitization methods shows promise. The data also support initiating formal pre-validation of the h-CLAT in order to fully understand the capabilities and limitations of the assay. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Flammer syndrome and potential formation of pre-metastatic niches : a multi-centred study on phenotyping, patient stratification, prediction and potential prevention of aggressive breast cancer and metastatic disease

    OpenAIRE

    Golubnitschaja, Olga; Debald, Manuel; Kuhn, Walter; Yeghiazaryan, Kristina; Bubnov, Rostyslav V.; Goncharenko, Vadym M.; Lushchyk, Ulyana; Grech, Godfrey; Konieczka, Katarzyna

    2016-01-01

    Table of contents A1 Predictive and prognostic biomarker panel for targeted application of radioembolisation improving individual outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma Jella-Andrea Abraham, Olga Golubnitschaja A2 Integrated market access approach amplifying value of ?Rx-CDx? Ildar Akhmetov A3 Disaster response: an opportunity to improve global healthcare Russell J. Andrews, Leonidas Quintana A4 USA PPPM: proscriptive, profligate, profiteering medicine-good for 1?% wealthy, not for 99?% unhealt...

  19. LECTINPred: web Server that Uses Complex Networks of Protein Structure for Prediction of Lectins with Potential Use as Cancer Biomarkers or in Parasite Vaccine Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munteanu, Cristian R; Pedreira, Nieves; Dorado, Julián; Pazos, Alejandro; Pérez-Montoto, Lázaro G; Ubeira, Florencio M; González-Díaz, Humberto

    2014-04-01

    Lectins (Ls) play an important role in many diseases such as different types of cancer, parasitic infections and other diseases. Interestingly, the Protein Data Bank (PDB) contains +3000 protein 3D structures with unknown function. Thus, we can in principle, discover new Ls mining non-annotated structures from PDB or other sources. However, there are no general models to predict new biologically relevant Ls based on 3D chemical structures. We used the MARCH-INSIDE software to calculate the Markov-Shannon 3D electrostatic entropy parameters for the complex networks of protein structure of 2200 different protein 3D structures, including 1200 Ls. We have performed a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) using these parameters as inputs in order to seek a new Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) model, which is able to discriminate 3D structure of Ls from other proteins. We implemented this predictor in the web server named LECTINPred, freely available at http://bio-aims.udc.es/LECTINPred.php. This web server showed the following goodness-of-fit statistics: Sensitivity=96.7 % (for Ls), Specificity=87.6 % (non-active proteins), and Accuracy=92.5 % (for all proteins), considering altogether both the training and external prediction series. In mode 2, users can carry out an automatic retrieval of protein structures from PDB. We illustrated the use of this server, in operation mode 1, performing a data mining of PDB. We predicted Ls scores for +2000 proteins with unknown function and selected the top-scored ones as possible lectins. In operation mode 2, LECTINPred can also upload 3D structural models generated with structure-prediction tools like LOMETS or PHYRE2. The new Ls are expected to be of relevance as cancer biomarkers or useful in parasite vaccine design. © 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  20. Potential of right to left ventricular volume ratio measured on chest CT for the prediction of pulmonary hypertension: correlation with pulmonary arterial systolic pressure estimated by echocardiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Heon [Soon Chun Hyang University, Department of Radiology, Bucheon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Seok Yeon [Seoul Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Soo Jeong [Terarecon Korea, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jae Kyun [Chung-Ang University College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Reddy, Ryan P.; Schoepf, U.J. [Medical University of South Carolina, Department of Radiology and Radiological Science and Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Charleston, SC (United States)

    2012-09-15

    To investigate the correlation of right ventricular (RV) to left ventricular (LV) volume ratio measured by chest CT with pulmonary arterial systolic pressure (PASP) estimated by echocardiography. 104 patients (72.47 {+-} 13.64 years; 39 male) who had undergone chest CT and echocardiography were divided into two groups (hypertensive and normotensive) based upon an echocardiography-derived PASP of 25 mmHg. RV to LV volume ratios (RV{sub V}/LV{sub V}) were calculated. RV{sub V}/LV{sub V} was then correlated with PASP using regression analysis. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) for predicting pulmonary hypertension on chest CT was calculated. In the hypertensive group, the mean PASP was 46.29 {+-} 14.42 mmHg (29-98 mmHg) and there was strong correlation between the RV{sub V}/LV{sub V} and PASP (R = 0.82, p < 0.001). The intraobserver and interobserver correlation coefficients for RV{sub V}/LV{sub V} were 0.990 and 0.892. RV{sub V}/LV{sub V} was 1.01 {+-} 0.44 (0.51-2.77) in the hypertensive and 0.72 {+-} 0.14 (0.52-1.11) in the normotensive group (P <0.05). With 0.9 as the cutoff for RV{sub V}/LV{sub V}, sensitivity and specificity for predicting pulmonary hypertension over 40 mmHg were 79.5 % and 90 %, respectively. The AUC for predicting pulmonary hypertension was 0.87 RV/LV volume ratios on chest CT correlate well with PASP estimated by echocardiography and can be used to predict pulmonary hypertension over 40 mmHg with high sensitivity and specificity. (orig.)

  1. Coronary Artery Calcium Volume and Density: Potential Interactions and Overall Predictive Value: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Criqui, Michael H; Knox, Jessica B; Denenberg, Julie O; Forbang, Nketi I; McClelland, Robyn L; Novotny, Thomas E; Sandfort, Veit; Waalen, Jill; Blaha, Michael J; Allison, Matthew A

    2017-08-01

    This study sought to determine the possibility of interactions between coronary artery calcium (CAC) volume or CAC density with each other, and with age, sex, ethnicity, the new atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score, diabetes status, and renal function by estimated glomerular filtration rate, and, using differing CAC scores, to determine the improvement over the ASCVD risk score in risk prediction and reclassification. In MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis), CAC volume was positively and CAC density inversely associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. A total of 3,398 MESA participants free of clinical CVD but with prevalent CAC at baseline were followed for incident CVD events. During a median 11.0 years of follow-up, there were 390 CVD events, 264 of which were coronary heart disease (CHD). With each SD increase of ln CAC volume (1.62), risk of CHD increased 73% (p present). In multivariable Cox models, significant interactions were present for CAC volume with age and ASCVD risk score for both CHD and CVD, and CAC density with ASCVD risk score for CVD. Hazard ratios were generally stronger in the lower risk groups. Receiver-operating characteristic area under the curve and Net Reclassification Index analyses showed better prediction by CAC volume than by Agatston, and the addition of CAC density to CAC volume further significantly improved prediction. The inverse association between CAC density and incident CHD and CVD events is robust across strata of other CVD risk factors. Added to the ASCVD risk score, CAC volume and density provided the strongest prediction for CHD and CVD events, and the highest correct reclassification. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Potential of right to left ventricular volume ratio measured on chest CT for the prediction of pulmonary hypertension: correlation with pulmonary arterial systolic pressure estimated by echocardiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Heon; Kim, Seok Yeon; Lee, Soo Jeong; Kim, Jae Kyun; Reddy, Ryan P.; Schoepf, U.J.

    2012-01-01

    To investigate the correlation of right ventricular (RV) to left ventricular (LV) volume ratio measured by chest CT with pulmonary arterial systolic pressure (PASP) estimated by echocardiography. 104 patients (72.47 ± 13.64 years; 39 male) who had undergone chest CT and echocardiography were divided into two groups (hypertensive and normotensive) based upon an echocardiography-derived PASP of 25 mmHg. RV to LV volume ratios (RV V /LV V ) were calculated. RV V /LV V was then correlated with PASP using regression analysis. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) for predicting pulmonary hypertension on chest CT was calculated. In the hypertensive group, the mean PASP was 46.29 ± 14.42 mmHg (29-98 mmHg) and there was strong correlation between the RV V /LV V and PASP (R = 0.82, p V /LV V were 0.990 and 0.892. RV V /LV V was 1.01 ± 0.44 (0.51-2.77) in the hypertensive and 0.72 ± 0.14 (0.52-1.11) in the normotensive group (P V /LV V , sensitivity and specificity for predicting pulmonary hypertension over 40 mmHg were 79.5 % and 90 %, respectively. The AUC for predicting pulmonary hypertension was 0.87 RV/LV volume ratios on chest CT correlate well with PASP estimated by echocardiography and can be used to predict pulmonary hypertension over 40 mmHg with high sensitivity and specificity. (orig.)

  3. A landscape model for predicting potential natural vegetation of the Olympic Peninsula USA using boundary equations and newly developed environmental variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jan A. Henderson; Robin D. Lesher; David H. Peter; Chris D. Ringo

    2011-01-01

    A gradient-analysis-based model and grid-based map are presented that use the potential vegetation zone as the object of the model. Several new variables are presented that describe the environmental gradients of the landscape at different scales. Boundary algorithms are conceptualized, and then defined, that describe the environmental boundaries between vegetation...

  4. Are restored side channels sustainable aquatic habitat features? Predicting the potential persistence of side channels as aquatic habitats based on their fine sedimentation dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riquier, Jérémie; Piégay, Hervé; Lamouroux, Nicolas; Vaudor, Lise

    2017-10-01

    The restoration of side channels (also referred to as abandoned channels, former channels, floodplain channels, or side arms) is increasingly implemented to improve the ecological integrity of river-floodplain systems. However, the design of side channel restoration projects remains poorly informed by theory or empirical observations despite the increasing number of projects. Moreover, feedback regarding the hydromorphological adjustment of restored channels is rarely documented, making it difficult to predict channel persistence as aquatic habitats. In this study, we analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of fine sediment deposition (River, France, restored in 1999-2006 by a combination of dredging and/or partial to full reconnection of their extremities and as a by-product of an increase in minimum flow through the bypassed main channels. We develop prediction tools to assess the persistence of restored channels as aquatic habitats, using between five and seven monitoring surveys per channel (spanning 7-15 years after restoration). Observed channel-averaged sedimentation rates ranged from 0 to 40.3 cm·y- 1 and reached 90.3 cm·y- 1 locally. Some channels exhibited a significant decline of sedimentation rates through time, whereas others maintained rather constant rates. Scouring processes (i.e., self-rejuvenation capacity) were occasionally documented in 15 channels. Six of the 16 studied channels appeared to be self-sustaining. The 10 others accumulated more and more fine sediment deposits after restoration. Parametric modeling of sedimentation rates suggested that among these 10 channels, four have long life-durations (i.e., more than a century), three have intermediate life-durations (i.e., likely between three and nine decades), and three others have short life-durations (i.e., likely between two and five decades). Observed channel-averaged sedimentation rates can be predicted from the frequency and magnitude (i.e., maximum shear stress) of upstream

  5. First trimester screening of circulating C19MC microRNAs and the evaluation of their potential to predict the onset of preeclampsia and IUGR.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilona Hromadnikova

    Full Text Available A nested case control study of a longitudinal cohort comparing pregnant women enrolled at 10 to 13 gestational weeks was carried out to evaluate risk assessment for preeclampsia and IUGR based on circulating placental specific C19MC microRNAs in early pregnancy.The expression of placental specific C19MC microRNAs (miR-516b-5p, miR-517-5p, miR-518b, miR-520a-5p, miR-520h, and miR-525-5p was determined in plasma samples from pregnancies that subsequently developed preeclampsia (n = 21, IUGR (n = 18, and 58 normal pregnancies using real-time PCR and comparative Ct method relative to synthetic Caenorhabditis elegans microRNA (cel-miR-39.Circulating C19MC microRNAs were up-regulated (miR-517-5p, p = 0.005; miR-518b, p = 0.013; miR-520h, p = 0.021 or showed a trend toward up-regulation in patients destined to develop preeclampsia (miR-520a-5p, p = 0.067; miR-525-5p, p = 0.073. MiR-517-5p had the best predictive performance for preeclampsia with a sensitivity of 42.9%, a specificity of 86.2%, a PPV of 52.9% and a NPV of 80.6%. The combination of all examined circulating C19MC microRNAs had no advantage over using only the miR-517-5p biomarker to predict the occurrence of preeclampsia (a sensitivity of 20.6%, a specificity of 90.8%, a PPV of 44.8%, and a NPV of 76.0%.Up-regulation of miR-517-5p, miR-518b and miR-520h was associated with a risk of later development of preeclampsia. First trimester screening of extracellular miR-517-5p identified a proportion of women with subsequent preeclampsia. No circulating C19MC microRNA biomarkers were identified that could predict later occurrence of IUGR.

  6. Ionizing radiation-induced DNA damage and repair as a potential biomarker in biodosimetry, cancer risk analysis and for prediction of radiotherapy induced toxicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satish Rao, B.S.

    2017-01-01

    Lymphocytes isolated from peripheral blood from 100 healthy individuals, 232 cancer patients (cervical, breast cancer and head and neck cancer) irradiated in vitro or in vivo were used for measuring DNA damage and repair. The microscopic method of the γ-H2AX assay was adopted to elucidate the significance of DSB in biodosimetry, cancer risk susceptibility, and normal tissue toxicity prediction. We validated the use of H2AX assay in early triage biodosimetry by using lymphocytes from cervical cancer patients exposed to radiotherapy. Further, the basal and residual damage was significantly higher in cancer individuals compared to the healthy individuals. In cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy, we could able to show the increase in normal tissue toxicity with decreased DSB repair capacity. In conclusion this study indicates the DSB estimation by γ-H2AX foci analysis can serve as a tool to understand the triage of radiation exposed individuals, identifying individuals at cancer risk and normal tissue toxicity

  7. Enriching the Metadata on CERN Document Server And Implementation of a Book Acquisition System To Predict the potential bottlenecks in availability of records in Library

    CERN Document Server

    Ahuja, Chakshu

    2015-01-01

    The automated script for data acquisition project ( bibtasklet ) which aims to enhance existing metadata in our CERN Document Server with data from Springer was implemented. An implicit part of this task is to manage disambiguation (within incoming data), removal of multiple entries, handle replications between new and existing records and further automate the latest file upload task to CDS. All such elements and their corresponding changes are integrated within Invenio to make the upgraded metadata available on the CDS. Another implementation was to make a web interface for the invenio software to calculate the normalized loan period to help the librarians to predict bottleneck on the books on loan over certain period of time and facilitate their decision to buy the new records accordingly.

  8. Assessing the utility of autofluorescence-based pulmonary optical endomicroscopy to predict the malignant potential of solitary pulmonary nodules in humans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth, Sohan; Akram, Ahsan R.; McCool, Paul; Westerfeld, Jody; Wilson, David; McLaughlin, Stephen; Dhaliwal, Kevin; Williams, Christopher K. I.

    2016-08-01

    Solitary pulmonary nodules are common, often incidental findings on chest CT scans. The investigation of pulmonary nodules is time-consuming and often leads to protracted follow-up with ongoing radiological surveillance, however, clinical calculators that assess the risk of the nodule being malignant exist to help in the stratification of patients. Furthermore recent advances in interventional pulmonology include the ability to both navigate to nodules and also to perform autofluorescence endomicroscopy. In this study we assessed the efficacy of incorporating additional information from label-free fibre-based optical endomicrosopy of the nodule on assessing risk of malignancy. Using image analysis and machine learning approaches, we find that this information does not yield any gain in predictive performance in a cohort of patients. Further advances with pulmonary endomicroscopy will require the addition of molecular tracers to improve information from this procedure.

  9. A study to evaluate the potential of an in silico approach for predicting dipeptidyl peptidase-IV inhibitory activity in vitro of protein hydrolysates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tzu-Yuan; Hsieh, Cheng-Hong; Hung, Chuan-Chuan; Jao, Chia-Ling; Lin, Pei-Yi; Hsieh, You-Liang; Hsu, Kuo-Chiang

    2017-11-01

    A total of 294 edible protein sequences and 5 commercial proteases listed in the BIOPEP database were analyzed in silico. The frequency (A), a parameter in silico described previously, was examined further to calculating the ratio of truncated peptides with Xaa-proline and/or Xaa-alanine to all peptide fragments in a protein hydrolyzed with a protease, using the BIOPEP database. Then the in vitro DPP-IV inhibitory activity was determined using the same 15 protein and protease combinations to evaluate their relationship. The result shows that A values considering the number of Xaa-proline+Xaa-alanine exhibited a strong correlation with in vitro DPP-IV inhibition rates by Pearson's correlation analysis (r=0.6993; Psilico approach is effective to predict DPP-IV inhibitory activities in vitro of protein hydrolysates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Accurate Prediction of One-Electron Reduction Potentials in Aqueous Solution by Variable-Temperature H-Atom Addition/Abstraction Methodology

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bím, Daniel; Rulíšek, Lubomír; Srnec, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 7, č. 1 (2016), s. 7-13 ISSN 1948-7185 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GJ15-10279Y; GA ČR(CZ) GA14-31419S Institutional support: RVO:61388963 ; RVO:61388955 Keywords : density functional theory * redox potentials * computational electrochemistry Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 9.353, year: 2016

  11. Modelling predicts that tolerance to drought during reproductive development will be required for high yield potential and stability of wheat in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, Mikhail A.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Paul, Matthew J.

    2017-04-01

    Short periods of extreme weather, such as a spell of high temperature or drought during a sensitive stage of development, could result in substantial yield losses due to reduction in grain number and grain size. In a modelling study (Stratonovitch & Semenov 2015), heat tolerance around flowering in wheat was identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change. Ji et all (Ji et al. 2010) demonstrated cultivar specific responses of yield to drought stress around flowering in wheat. They hypothesised that carbohydrate supply to anthers may be the key in maintaining pollen fertility and grain number in wheat. It was shown in (Nuccio et al. 2015) that genetically modified varieties of maize that increase the concentration of sucrose in ear spikelets, performed better under non-drought and drought conditions in field experiments. The objective of this modelling study was to assess potential benefits of tolerance to drought during reproductive development for wheat yield potential and yield stability across Europe. We used the Sirius wheat model to optimise wheat ideotypes for 2050 (HadGEM2, RCP8.5) climate scenarios at selected European sites. Eight cultivar parameters were optimised to maximise mean yields, including parameters controlling phenology, canopy growth and water limitation. At those sites where water could be limited, ideotypes sensitive to drought produced substantially lower mean yields and higher yield variability compare with tolerant ideotypes. Therefore, tolerance to drought during reproductive development is likely to be required for wheat cultivars optimised for the future climate in Europe in order to achieve high yield potential and yield stability.

  12. Human sensory Long-Term Potentiation (LTP) predicts visual memory performance and is modulated by the brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) Val66Met polymorphism

    OpenAIRE

    King, Rohan; Moreau, David; Russell, Bruce; Kirk, Ian; Wu, Carolyn; Antia, Ushtana; Lamb, Yvette; Spriggs, Meg; Thompson, Chris; Mckay, Nicole; Shelling, Andrew; Waldie, Karen; Teyler, Tim; Hamm, Jeff; Mcnair, Nicolas

    2018-01-01

    Background: Long-Term Potentiation (LTP) is recognised as a core neuronal process underlying long-term memory. However, a direct relationship between LTP and human memory performance is yet to be demonstrated. The first aim of the current study was thus to assess the relationship between LTP and human long-term memory performance. With this also comes an opportunity to explore factors thought to mediate the relationship between LTP and long-term memory, and to gain additional insight into var...

  13. Dimerized plasmin fragment D as a potential biomarker to predict successful catheter-directed thrombolysis therapy in acute deep vein thrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Chien-Ming; Wu, I-Hui; Chan, Chih-Yang; Chen, Yih-Sharng; Yang, Wei-Shiung; Wang, Shoei-Shen

    2015-10-01

    The value of dimerized plasmin fragment D in the clinical monitoring during the catheter-directed thrombolysis in patients with acute deep vein thrombosis is not known. Dimerized plasmin fragment D levels in 24 patients with acute deep vein thrombosis undergoing catheter-directed thrombolysis were prospectively evaluated. The plasma dimerized plasmin fragment D level was measured serially before and at every 12 h during catheter-directed thrombolysis for 24 h. Technical success was defined as restoration of patency and flow with less than 50% residual thrombus by surveillance rotational venography. Technical success was achieved in 79.2% (19 of 24) of the treated limbs after catheter-directed thrombolysis. In univariate analysis, there was significant elevation of the dimerized plasmin fragment D at 12th h after starting the catheter-directed thrombolysis (P fragment D to predict successful catheter-directed thrombolysis was determined as 18.4 µg/ml at the 12th h after starting the catheter-directed thrombolysis with sensitivity 0.8 and specificity 0.8 (P = 0.03). It was further validated in multivariate logistic regression analysis (odds ratio: 14.38; 95% CI: 1.22-169.20; P = 0.03). Catheter-directed thrombolysis is safe and effective for restoration of blood flow in patients with acute deep vein thrombosis. Dimerized plasmin fragment D value greater than 18.4 µg/ml at the 12th h after starting catheter-directed thrombolysis had a high predictive rate of greater than 50% lysis at the end of catheter-directed thrombolysis. © The Author(s) 2014.

  14. Increase in hepatic arterial blood flow after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt creation and its potential predictive value of postprocedural encephalopathy and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, N H; Sasadeusz, K J; Seshadri, R; Chalasani, N; Shah, H; Johnson, M S; Namyslowski, J; Moresco, K P; Trerotola, S O

    2001-11-01

    To determine (i) whether there is a significant increase in hepatic artery blood flow (HABF) after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation and (ii) whether the extent of incremental increase in HABF is predictive of clinical outcome after TIPS creation. Prospective, nonrandomized, nonblinded duplex Doppler ultrasound (US) examinations were performed on 24 consecutive patients (19 men; Child Class A/B/C: 4/12/8, respectively) with a mean age of 52.8 years who were referred for TIPS creation for variceal bleeding. Peak hepatic artery velocity and vessel dimensions were used to calculate the hepatic arterial blood flow (HABF) before and after TIPS creation. Patients were clinically followed in the gastrohepatology clinic and TIPS US surveillance was performed at 1 and 3 months to assess shunt function. The extent of incremental increase in HABF was analyzed as a predictor of post-TIPS encephalopathy and/or death. The technical success rate of TIPS creation was 100%. The shunt diameters were either 10 mm (n = 11) or 12 mm (n = 13). TIPS resulted in a significant reduction in the portosystemic gradient from 24.3 mm Hg +/- 5.7 to 9.3 mm Hg +/- 2.9 (P creation, from 60.8 cm/sec +/- 26.7 to 121 cm/sec +/- 51.5 (P creation, new or worsened encephalopathy developed in five patients at 30 days and in an additional three at 90 days. They were all successfully managed medically. Three patients (12.5%) died within 30 days of the TIPS procedure. The extent of incremental increase in HABF after TIPS was variable and did not correlate with the development of 30-day and 90-day encephalopathy (P =.41 and P =.83, respectively) or 30-day mortality (P =.2). HABF increases significantly after TIPS but is not predictive of clinical outcome. The significance of the incremental increase is yet to be determined.

  15. Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 (IGF-1) in Parkinson's Disease: Potential as Trait-, Progression- and Prediction Marker and Confounding Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binder, Gerhard; Weber, Karin; Apel, Anja; Roeben, Benjamin; Deuschle, Christian; Maechtel, Mirjam; Heger, Tanja; Nussbaum, Susanne; Gasser, Thomas; Maetzler, Walter; Berg, Daniela

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Biomarkers indicating trait, progression and prediction of pathology and symptoms in Parkinson's disease (PD) often lack specificity or reliability. Investigating biomarker variance between individuals and over time and the effect of confounding factors is essential for the evaluation of biomarkers in PD, such as insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1). Materials and Methods IGF-1 serum levels were investigated in up to 8 biannual visits in 37 PD patients and 22 healthy controls (HC) in the longitudinal MODEP study. IGF-1 baseline levels and annual changes in IGF-1 were compared between PD patients and HC while accounting for baseline disease duration (19 early stage: ≤3.5 years; 18 moderate stage: >4 years), age, sex, body mass index (BMI) and common medical factors putatively modulating IGF-1. In addition, associations of baseline IGF-1 with annual changes of motor, cognitive and depressive symptoms and medication dose were investigated. Results PD patients in moderate (130±26 ng/mL; p = .004), but not early stages (115±19, p>.1), showed significantly increased baseline IGF-1 levels compared with HC (106±24 ng/mL; p = .017). Age had a significant negative correlation with IGF-1 levels in HC (r = -.47, p = .028) and no correlation in PD patients (r = -.06, p>.1). BMI was negatively correlated in the overall group (r = -.28, p = .034). The annual changes in IGF-1 did not differ significantly between groups and were not correlated with disease duration. Baseline IGF-1 levels were not associated with annual changes of clinical parameters. Discussion Elevated IGF-1 in serum might differentiate between patients in moderate PD stages and HC. However, the value of serum IGF-1 as a trait-, progression- and prediction marker in PD is limited as IGF-1 showed large inter- and intraindividual variability and may be modulated by several confounders. PMID:26967642

  16. Application of multi-criteria decision analysis in prediction of groundwater resources potential: A case of Oke-Ana, Ilesa Area Southwestern, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.A. Akinlalu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater Potential of Oke-Ana area southwestern Nigeria have been evaluated using the integration of electrical resistivity method, remote sensing and geographic information systems. The effect of five hydrogeological indices, namely lineament density, drainage density, lithology, overburden thickness and aquifer layer resistivity on groundwater occurrence was established. Multi-criteria decision analysis technique was employed to assign weight to each of the index using the concept of analytical hierarchy process. The assigned weight was normalized and consistency ratio was established. In order to evaluate the groundwater potential of Oke-Ana, sixty-seven (67 vertical electrical sounding points were occupied. Ten curve types were delineated in the study area. The curve types vary from simple three layer A and H-type curves to the more complex four, five and six layer AA, HA, KH, QH, AKH, HKH, KHA and KHKH curves. Four subsurface geo-electric sequences of top soil, weathered layer, partially weathered/fractured basement and the fresh basement were delineated in the area. The analytical process assisted in classifying Oke-Ana into, low, medium and high groundwater potential zones. Validation of the model from well information and two aborted boreholes suggest 70% agreement.

  17. Potential performance analysis and future trend prediction of electric vehicle with V2G/V2H/V2B capability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalong Guo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the intermittent nature, renewable energy sources (RES has brought new challenges on load balancing and energy dispatching to the Smart Grid. Potentially served as distributed energy storage, Electric Vehicle’s (EV battery can be used as a way to help mitigate the pressure of fluctuation brought by RES and reinforce the stability of power systems. This paper gives a comprehensive review of the current situation of EV technology and mainly emphasizing three EV discharging operations which are Vehicle to Grid (V2G, Vehicle to Home (V2H, and Vehicle to Building (V2B, respectively. When needed, EV’s battery can discharge and send its surplus energy back to power grid, residential homes, or buildings. Based on our data analysis, we argue that V2G with the largest transmission power losses is potentially less efficient compared with the other two modes. We show that the residential users have the incentive to schedule the charging, V2G, and V2H according to the real-time price (RTP and the market sell-back price. In addition, we discuss some challenges and potential risks resulting from EVs’ fast growth. Finally we propose some suggestions on future power systems and also argue that some incentives or rewards need to be provided to motivate EV owners to behave in the best interests of the overall power systems.

  18. Model-based prediction of potential distribution of the invasive insect pest, spotted lanternfly Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae, by using CLIMEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae-Min Jung

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Lycorma delicatula is one of the major invasive pests of Korea. Careful monitoring is required to protect domestic agriculture as this pest causes severe damage to agricultural crops, such as wilting and sooty mold. This study was designed to confirm the potential distribution of L. delicatula using the modeling software CLIMEX and to suggest fundamental data for preventing agricultural damage by L. delicatula. Our results show that Korean weather seems to be adequate for L. delicatula habitation, indicating that approximately 60% of areas examined have a very high possibility of potential distribution. Particularly, we showed that Gyeongsang-do and Jeonla-do, which have not yet been invaded by L. delicatula, were very suitable locations for its growth. Therefore, although it is necessary to set up feasible strategies for preventing further L. delicatula invasions, subsequent studies are needed for assessing other invasive species considering the impact of future climate change. Keywords: CLIMEX software, invasive pest, Lycorma delicatula, potential distribution

  19. The Efficacy of Intraoperative Neurophysiological Monitoring Using Transcranial Electrically Stimulated Muscle-evoked Potentials (TcE-MsEPs) for Predicting Postoperative Segmental Upper Extremity Motor Paresis After Cervical Laminoplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiwara, Yasushi; Manabe, Hideki; Izumi, Bunichiro; Tanaka, Hiroyuki; Kawai, Kazumi; Tanaka, Nobuhiro

    2016-05-01

    Prospective study. To investigate the efficacy of transcranial electrically stimulated muscle-evoked potentials (TcE-MsEPs) for predicting postoperative segmental upper extremity palsy following cervical laminoplasty. Postoperative segmental upper extremity palsy, especially in the deltoid and biceps (so-called C5 palsy), is the most common complication following cervical laminoplasty. Some papers have reported that postoperative C5 palsy cannot be predicted by TcE-MsEPs, although others have reported that it can be predicted. This study included 160 consecutive cases that underwent open-door laminoplasty, and TcE-MsEP monitoring was performed in the biceps brachii, triceps brachii, abductor digiti minimi, tibialis anterior, and abductor hallucis. A >50% decrease in the wave amplitude was defined as an alarm point. According to the monitoring alarm, interventions were performed, which include steroid administration, foraminotomies, etc. Postoperative deltoid and biceps palsy occurred in 5 cases. Among the 155 cases without segmental upper extremity palsy, there were no monitoring alarms. Among the 5 deltoid and biceps palsy cases, 3 had significant wave amplitude decreases in the biceps during surgery, and palsy occurred when the patients awoke from anesthesia (acute type). In the other 2 cases in which the palsy occurred 2 days after the operation (delayed type), there were no significant wave decreases. In all of the cases, the palsy was completely resolved within 6 months. The majority of C5 palsies have been reported to occur several days after surgery, but some of them have been reported to occur immediately after surgery. Our results demonstrated that TcE-MsEPs can predict the acute type, whereas the delayed type cannot be predicted. A >50% wave amplitude decrease in the biceps is useful to predict acute-type segmental upper extremity palsy. Further examination about the interventions for monitoring alarm will be essential for preventing palsy.

  20. Calculation of intermolecular potentials for H2−H2 and H2−O2 dimers ab initio and prediction of second virial coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham Van, Tat; Deiters, Ulrich K.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We construct the angular orientations of dimers H 2 −H 2 and H 2 −O 2 . • We calculate the ab initio intermolecular interaction energies for all built orientations. • Extrapolating the interaction energies to the complete basis set limit aug-cc-pV23Z. • We develop two 5-site ab initio intermolecular potentials of dimers H 2 −H 2 , H 2 −O 2 . • Calculating the virial coefficients of dimer H 2 −H 2 and H 2 −O 2 . - Abstract: The intermolecular interaction potentials of the dimers H 2 −H 2 and H 2 −O 2 were calculated from quantum mechanics, using coupled-cluster theory CCSD(T) and correlation-consistent basis sets aug-cc-pVmZ (m = 2, 3); the results were extrapolated to the basis set limit aug-cc-pV23Z. The interaction energies were corrected for the basis set superposition error with the counterpoise scheme. For comparison also Møller–Plesset perturbation theory (at levels 2–4) with the basis sets aug-cc-pVTZ were considered, but the results proved inferior. The quantum mechanical results were used to construct analytical pair potential functions. From these functions the second virial coefficients of hydrogen and the cross virial coefficients of the hydrogen–oxygen system were obtained by integration; in both cases corrections for quantum effects were included. The results agree well with experimental data, if available, or with empirical correlations

  1. Prediction and evaluation of nonlinear site response with potentially liquefiable layers in the area of Nafplion (Peloponnesus, Greece for a repeat of historical earthquakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. K. Karastathis

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available We examine the possible non-linear behaviour of potentially liquefiable layers at selected sites located within the expansion area of the town of Nafplion, East Peloponnese, Greece. Input motion is computed for three scenario earthquakes, selected on the basis of historical seismicity data, using a stochastic strong ground motion simulation technique, which takes into account the finite dimensions of the earthquake sources. Site-specific ground acceleration synthetics and soil profiles are then used to evaluate the liquefaction potential at the sites of interest. The activation scenario of the Iria fault, which is the closest one to Nafplion (M=6.4, is found to be the most hazardous in terms of liquefaction initiation. In this scenario almost all the examined sites exhibit liquefaction features at depths of 6–12 m. For scenario earthquakes at two more distant seismic sources (Epidaurus fault – M6.3; Xylokastro fault – M6.7 strong ground motion amplification phenomena by the shallow soft soil layer are expected to be observed.

  2. Prediction and identification of potential immunodominant epitopes in glycoproteins B, C, E, G, and I of herpes simplex virus type 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Mingjie; Wang, Xingsheng; Liao, Jianmin; Yin, Dengke; Li, Suqin; Pan, Ying; Wang, Yao; Xie, Guangyan; Zhang, Shumin; Li, Yuexi

    2012-01-01

    Twenty B candidate epitopes of glycoproteins B (gB2), C (gC2), E (gE2), G (gG2), and I (gI2) of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) were predicted using DNAstar, Biosun, and Antheprot methods combined with the polynomial method. Subsequently, the biological functions of the peptides were tested via experiments in vitro. Among the 20 epitope peptides, 17 could react with the antisera to the corresponding parent proteins in the EIA tests. In particular, five peptides, namely, gB2(466-473) (EQDRKPRN), gC2(216-223) (GRTDRPSA), gE2(483-491) (DPPERPDSP), gG2(572-579) (EPPDDDDS), and gI2(286-295) (CRRRYRRPRG) had strong reaction with the antisera. All conjugates of the five peptides with the carrier protein BSA could stimulate mice into producing antibodies. The antisera to these peptides reacted strongly with the corresponding parent glycoproteins during the Western Blot tests, and the peptides reacted strongly with the antibodies against the parent glycoproteins during the EIA tests. The antisera against the five peptides could neutralize HSV-2 infection in vitro, which has not been reported until now. These results suggest that the immunodominant epitopes screened using software algorithms may be used for virus diagnosis and vaccine design against HSV-2.

  3. Prediction and Identification of Potential Immunodominant Epitopes in Glycoproteins B, C, E, G, and I of Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingjie Pan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Twenty B candidate epitopes of glycoproteins B (gB2, C (gC2, E (gE2, G (gG2, and I (gI2 of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2 were predicted using DNAstar, Biosun, and Antheprot methods combined with the polynomial method. Subsequently, the biological functions of the peptides were tested via experiments in vitro. Among the 20 epitope peptides, 17 could react with the antisera to the corresponding parent proteins in the EIA tests. In particular, five peptides, namely, gB2466–473 (EQDRKPRN, gC2216–223 (GRTDRPSA, gE2483–491 (DPPERPDSP, gG2572–579 (EPPDDDDS, and gI2286-295 (CRRRYRRPRG had strong reaction with the antisera. All conjugates of the five peptides with the carrier protein BSA could stimulate mice into producing antibodies. The antisera to these peptides reacted strongly with the corresponding parent glycoproteins during the Western Blot tests, and the peptides reacted strongly with the antibodies against the parent glycoproteins during the EIA tests. The antisera against the five peptides could neutralize HSV-2 infection in vitro, which has not been reported until now. These results suggest that the immunodominant epitopes screened using software algorithms may be used for virus diagnosis and vaccine design against HSV-2.

  4. Analysis of the Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) variability for assessing the prediction of skin sensitisation potential and potency of chemicals with non-animal approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, Coralie; Barroso, João; Matys, Izabela; Worth, Andrew; Casati, Silvia

    2016-08-01

    The knowledge of the biological mechanisms leading to the induction of skin sensitisation has favoured in recent years the development of alternative non-animal methods. During the formal validation process, results from the Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) are generally used as reference data to assess the predictive capacity of the non-animal tests. This study reports an analysis of the variability of the LLNA for a set of chemicals for which multiple studies are available and considers three hazard classification schemes: POS/NEG, GHS/CLP and ECETOC. As the type of vehicle used in a LLNA study is known to influence to some extent the results, two analyses were performed: considering the solvent used to test the chemicals and without considering the solvent. The results show that the number of discordant classifications increases when a chemical is tested in more than one solvent. Moreover, it can be concluded that study results leading to classification in the strongest classes (1A and EXT) seem to be more reliable than those in the weakest classes. This study highlights the importance of considering the variability of the reference data when evaluating non-animal tests. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  5. Potential transfer of neurotoxic amino acid β-N-methylamino-alanine (BMAA) from mother to infant during breast-feeding: Predictions from human cell lines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Marie; Ersson, Lisa; Brandt, Ingvar; Bergström, Ulrika

    2017-01-01

    β-N-methylamino-alanine (BMAA) is a non-protein amino acid produced by cyanobacteria, diatoms and dinoflagellates. BMAA has potential to biomagnify in a terrestrial food chain, and to bioaccumulate in fish and shellfish. We have reported that administration of [ 14 C]L-BMAA to lactating mice and rats results in a mother to off-spring transfer via the milk. A preferential enantiomer-specific uptake of [ 14 C]L-BMAA has also been demonstrated in differentiated murine mammary epithelium HC11 cells. These findings, together with neurotoxic effects of BMAA demonstrated both in vitro and in vivo, highlight the need to determine whether such transfer could also occur in humans. Here, we used four cell lines of human origin to examine and compare the transport of the two BMAA enantiomers in vitro. The uptake patterns of [ 14 C]L- and [ 14 C]D-BMAA in the human mammary MCF7 cell line were in agreement with the results in murine HC11 cells, suggesting a potential secretion of BMAA into human breast milk. The permeability coefficients for both [ 14 C]L- and [ 14 C]D-BMAA over monolayers of human intestinal Caco2 cells supported an efficient absorption from the human intestine. As a final step, transport experiments confirmed that [ 14 C]L-and [ 14 C]D-BMAA can be taken up by human SHSY5Y neuroblastoma cells and even more efficiently by human U343 glioblastoma cells. In competition experiments with various amino acids, the ASCT2 specific inhibitor benzylserine was the most effective inhibitor of [ 14 C]L-BMAA uptake tested here. Altogether, our results suggest that BMAA can be transferred from an exposed mother, via the milk, to the brain of the nursed infant. - Highlights: • Transport of BMAA in human intestinal, mammary and CNS cell lines was examined. • The transport of L-BMAA over intestinal cell monolayers was unidirectional. • Enantiomer-selective uptake of L-BMAA in breast, neuron and glia cells was evident. • Competition experiments indicate that L-BMAA uptake

  6. Potential transfer of neurotoxic amino acid β-N-methylamino-alanine (BMAA) from mother to infant during breast-feeding: Predictions from human cell lines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, Marie [Department of Environmental Toxicology, Uppsala University, Norbyvägen 18A, SE-752 36 Uppsala (Sweden); Ersson, Lisa [Department of Pharmaceutical Biosciences, Uppsala University, Box 591, SE-751 24 Uppsala (Sweden); Brandt, Ingvar, E-mail: Ingvar.Brandt@ebc.uu.se [Department of Environmental Toxicology, Uppsala University, Norbyvägen 18A, SE-752 36 Uppsala (Sweden); Bergström, Ulrika [Department of Environmental Toxicology, Uppsala University, Norbyvägen 18A, SE-752 36 Uppsala (Sweden); Swedish Defence Research Agency, Division of CBRN Defence and Security, SE-164 90 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2017-04-01

    β-N-methylamino-alanine (BMAA) is a non-protein amino acid produced by cyanobacteria, diatoms and dinoflagellates. BMAA has potential to biomagnify in a terrestrial food chain, and to bioaccumulate in fish and shellfish. We have reported that administration of [{sup 14}C]L-BMAA to lactating mice and rats results in a mother to off-spring transfer via the milk. A preferential enantiomer-specific uptake of [{sup 14}C]L-BMAA has also been demonstrated in differentiated murine mammary epithelium HC11 cells. These findings, together with neurotoxic effects of BMAA demonstrated both in vitro and in vivo, highlight the need to determine whether such transfer could also occur in humans. Here, we used four cell lines of human origin to examine and compare the transport of the two BMAA enantiomers in vitro. The uptake patterns of [{sup 14}C]L- and [{sup 14}C]D-BMAA in the human mammary MCF7 cell line were in agreement with the results in murine HC11 cells, suggesting a potential secretion of BMAA into human breast milk. The permeability coefficients for both [{sup 14}C]L- and [{sup 14}C]D-BMAA over monolayers of human intestinal Caco2 cells supported an efficient absorption from the human intestine. As a final step, transport experiments confirmed that [{sup 14}C]L-and [{sup 14}C]D-BMAA can be taken up by human SHSY5Y neuroblastoma cells and even more efficiently by human U343 glioblastoma cells. In competition experiments with various amino acids, the ASCT2 specific inhibitor benzylserine was the most effective inhibitor of [{sup 14}C]L-BMAA uptake tested here. Altogether, our results suggest that BMAA can be transferred from an exposed mother, via the milk, to the brain of the nursed infant. - Highlights: • Transport of BMAA in human intestinal, mammary and CNS cell lines was examined. • The transport of L-BMAA over intestinal cell monolayers was unidirectional. • Enantiomer-selective uptake of L-BMAA in breast, neuron and glia cells was evident. • Competition

  7. Transformation assay in Bhas 42 cells: a model using initiated cells to study mechanisms of carcinogenesis and predict carcinogenic potential of chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, Kiyoshi; Umeda, Makoto; Sakai, Ayako; Yamazaki, Shojiro; Tanaka, Noriho

    2015-01-01

    Transformation assays using cultured cells have been applied to the study of carcinogenesis. Although various cell systems exist, few cell types such as BALB/c 3T3 subclones and Syrian hamster embryo cells have been used to study chemically induced two-stage carcinogenesis. Bhas 42 cells were established as a clone by the transfection with the v-Ha-ras gene into mouse BALB/c 3T3 A31-1-1 cells and their subsequent selection based on their sensitivity to 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate. Using Bhas 42 cells, transformed foci were induced by the treatment with nongenotoxic carcinogens, most of which act as tumor promoters. Therefore, Bhas 42 cells were considered to be a model of initiated cells. Subsequently, not only nongenotoxic carcinogens but also genotoxic carcinogens, most of which act as tumor initiators, were found to induce transformed foci by the modification of the protocol. Furthermore, transformation of Bhas 42 cells was induced by the transfection with genes of oncogenic potential. We interpret this high sensitivity of Bhas 42 cells to various types of carcinogenic stimuli to be related to the multistage model of carcinogenesis, as the transfection of v-Ha-ras gene further advances the parental BALB/c 3T3 A31-1-1 cells toward higher transforming potential. Thus, we propose that Bhas 42 cells are a novel and sensitive cell line for the analysis of carcinogenesis and can be used for the detection of not only carcinogenic substances but also gene alterations related to oncogenesis. This review will address characteristics of Bhas 42 cells, the transformation assay protocol, validation studies, and the various chemicals tested in this assay.

  8. Exploring the predictive value of the evoked potentials score in MS within an appropriate patient population: a hint for an early identification of benign MS?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaritella Nicolò

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The prognostic value of evoked potentials (EPs in multiple sclerosis (MS has not been fully established. The correlations between the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS at First Neurological Evaluation (FNE and the duration of the disease, as well as between EDSS and EPs, have influenced the outcome of most previous studies. To overcome this confounding relations, we propose to test the prognostic value of EPs within an appropriate patient population which should be based on patients with low EDSS at FNE and short disease duration. Methods We retrospectively selected a sample of 143 early relapsing remitting MS (RRMS patients with an EDSS Results The Evoked Potentials score (EP score and the Time to EDSS 2.0 (TT2 were the best predictors of worsening in our sample (Odds Ratio 1.10 and 0.82 respectively, p=0.001. Low EP score (below 15–20 points, short TT2 (lower than 3–5 years and their interaction resulted to be the most useful for the identification of worsening patterns. Moreover, in patients with an EP score at FNE below 6 points and a TT2 greater than 3 years the probability of worsening was 10% after 4–5 years and rapidly decreased thereafter. Conclusions In an appropriate population of early RRMS patients, the EP score at FNE is a good predictor of disability at low values as well as in combination with a rapid buildup of disability. Interestingly, an EP score at FNE under the median together with a clinical stability lasting more than 3 years turned out to be a protective pattern. This finding may contribute to an early identification of benign patients, well before the term required to diagnose Benign MS (BMS.

  9. Potential transfer of neurotoxic amino acid β-N-methylamino-alanine (BMAA) from mother to infant during breast-feeding: Predictions from human cell lines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Marie; Ersson, Lisa; Brandt, Ingvar; Bergström, Ulrika

    2017-04-01

    β-N-methylamino-alanine (BMAA) is a non-protein amino acid produced by cyanobacteria, diatoms and dinoflagellates. BMAA has potential to biomagnify in a terrestrial food chain, and to bioaccumulate in fish and shellfish. We have reported that administration of [ 14 C]l-BMAA to lactating mice and rats results in a mother to off-spring transfer via the milk. A preferential enantiomer-specific uptake of [ 14 C]l-BMAA has also been demonstrated in differentiated murine mammary epithelium HC11 cells. These findings, together with neurotoxic effects of BMAA demonstrated both in vitro and in vivo, highlight the need to determine whether such transfer could also occur in humans. Here, we used four cell lines of human origin to examine and compare the transport of the two BMAA enantiomers in vitro. The uptake patterns of [ 14 C]l- and [ 14 C]d-BMAA in the human mammary MCF7 cell line were in agreement with the results in murine HC11 cells, suggesting a potential secretion of BMAA into human breast milk. The permeability coefficients for both [ 14 C]l- and [ 14 C]d-BMAA over monolayers of human intestinal Caco2 cells supported an efficient absorption from the human intestine. As a final step, transport experiments confirmed that [ 14 C]l-and [ 14 C]d-BMAA can be taken up by human SHSY5Y neuroblastoma cells and even more efficiently by human U343 glioblastoma cells. In competition experiments with various amino acids, the ASCT2 specific inhibitor benzylserine was the most effective inhibitor of [ 14 C]l-BMAA uptake tested here. Altogether, our results suggest that BMAA can be transferred from an exposed mother, via the milk, to the brain of the nursed infant. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. 8-Quinolineboronic acid as a potential phosphorescent molecular switch for the determination of alpha-fetoprotein variant for the prediction of primary hepatocellular carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu Jiaming, E-mail: zzsyliujiaming@163.com [Department of Chemistry and Environmental Science, Zhangzhou Normal College, Xianzhiqian Street, 36 Zhangzhou, Fujian 363000 (China); Li Feiming [Department of Chemistry and Environmental Science, Zhangzhou Normal College, Xianzhiqian Street, 36 Zhangzhou, Fujian 363000 (China); Liu Zhenbo [Third Hospital of Xiamen, Xiamen 316000 (China); Lin Changqing [Department of Food and Biological Engineering, Zhangzhou Institute of Technology, Zhangzhou 363000 (China); Lin Shaoqin [Department of Biochemistry, Fujian Education College, Fuzhou 350001 (China); Lin Liping [Department of Chemistry and Environmental Science, Zhangzhou Normal College, Xianzhiqian Street, 36 Zhangzhou, Fujian 363000 (China); Wang Xinxing [Department of Chemistry and Environmental Science, Zhangzhou Normal College, Xianzhiqian Street, 36 Zhangzhou, Fujian 363000 (China); Department of Food and Biological Engineering, Zhangzhou Institute of Technology, Zhangzhou 363000 (China); Li Zhiming [Department of Food and Biological Engineering, Zhangzhou Institute of Technology, Zhangzhou 363000 (China)

    2010-03-24

    8-Quinolineboronic acid phosphorescent molecular switch (8-QBA-PMS) in the 'off' state emitted weak room temperature phosphorescence (RTP) of 8-QBA on the acetylcellulose membrane (ACM) with the perturbation of Pb{sup 2+}. When 8-QBA-PMS was used to label concanavalin agglutinin (Con A) to form 8-QBA-PMS-Con A based on the reaction between -OH of 8-QBA-PMS and -COOH of Con A, 8-QBA-PMS turned 'on' automatically due to its structure change, and RTP of the system increased 2.7 times. Besides, -NH{sub 2} of 8-QBA-PMS-Con A could carry out affinity adsorption (AA) reaction with the -COOH of alpha-fetoprotein variant (AFP-V) to form the product Con A-AFP-V-Con A-8-QBA-PMS containing -NH-CO- bond, causing the RTP of the system to further increase. Moreover, the amount of AFP-V was linear to the {Delta}I{sub p} of the system in the range of 0.012-2.40 (fg spot{sup -1}). Thus, a new affinity sensitive adsorption solid substrate room temperature phosphorimetry using 8-QBA-PMS as labelling reagent (8-QBA-PMS-AASSRTP) for the determination of AFP-V was proposed with the detection limit (LD) of 9 x 10{sup -15} g mL{sup -1}. It had been used to determine AFP-V in human serum with the results agreeing with enzyme-link immunoassay (ELISA), showing promise for the prediction of PHC due to the intimate association between AFP-V and primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHC). The mechanism of the promethod was also discussed.

  11. 8-Quinolineboronic acid as a potential phosphorescent molecular switch for the determination of alpha-fetoprotein variant for the prediction of primary hepatocellular carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Jiaming; Li Feiming; Liu Zhenbo; Lin Changqing; Lin Shaoqin; Lin Liping; Wang Xinxing; Li Zhiming

    2010-01-01

    8-Quinolineboronic acid phosphorescent molecular switch (8-QBA-PMS) in the 'off' state emitted weak room temperature phosphorescence (RTP) of 8-QBA on the acetylcellulose membrane (ACM) with the perturbation of Pb 2+ . When 8-QBA-PMS was used to label concanavalin agglutinin (Con A) to form 8-QBA-PMS-Con A based on the reaction between -OH of 8-QBA-PMS and -COOH of Con A, 8-QBA-PMS turned 'on' automatically due to its structure change, and RTP of the system increased 2.7 times. Besides, -NH 2 of 8-QBA-PMS-Con A could carry out affinity adsorption (AA) reaction with the -COOH of alpha-fetoprotein variant (AFP-V) to form the product Con A-AFP-V-Con A-8-QBA-PMS containing -NH-CO- bond, causing the RTP of the system to further increase. Moreover, the amount of AFP-V was linear to the ΔI p of the system in the range of 0.012-2.40 (fg spot -1 ). Thus, a new affinity sensitive adsorption solid substrate room temperature phosphorimetry using 8-QBA-PMS as labelling reagent (8-QBA-PMS-AASSRTP) for the determination of AFP-V was proposed with the detection limit (LD) of 9 x 10 -15 g mL -1 . It had been used to determine AFP-V in human serum with the results agreeing with enzyme-link immunoassay (ELISA), showing promise for the prediction of PHC due to the intimate association between AFP-V and primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHC). The mechanism of the promethod was also discussed.

  12. Calculation of total free energy yield as an alternative approach for predicting the importance of potential chemolithotrophic reactions in geothermal springs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodsworth, Jeremy A; McDonald, Austin I; Hedlund, Brian P

    2012-08-01

    To inform hypotheses regarding the relative importance of chemolithotrophic metabolisms in geothermal environments, we calculated free energy yields of 26 chemical reactions potentially supporting chemolithotrophy in two US Great Basin hot springs, taking into account the effects of changing reactant and product activities on the Gibbs free energy as each reaction progressed. Results ranged from 1.2 × 10(-5) to 3.6 J kg(-1) spring water, or 3.7 × 10(-5) to 11.5 J s(-1) based on measured flow rates, with aerobic oxidation of CH(4) or NH4 + giving the highest average yields. Energy yields calculated without constraining pH were similar to those at constant pH except for reactions where H(+) was consumed, which often had significantly lower yields when pH was unconstrained. In contrast to the commonly used normalization of reaction chemical affinities per mole of electrons transferred, reaction energy yields for a given oxidant varied by several orders of magnitude and were more sensitive to differences in the activities of products and reactants. The high energy yield of aerobic ammonia oxidation is consistent with previous observations of significant ammonia oxidation rates and abundant ammonia-oxidizing archaea in sediments of these springs. This approach offers an additional lens through which to view the thermodynamic landscape of geothermal springs. © 2012 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Prediction of acid mine drainage generation potential of various lithologies using static tests: Etili coal mine (NW Turkey) as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yucel, Deniz Sanliyuksel; Baba, Alper

    2016-08-01

    The Etili neighborhood in Can County (northwestern Turkey) has large reserves of coal and has been the site of many small- to medium-scale mining operations since the 1980s. Some of these have ceased working while others continue to operate. Once activities cease, the mining facilities and fields are usually abandoned without rehabilitation. The most significant environmental problem is acid mine drainage (AMD). This study was carried out to determine the acid generation potential of various lithological units in the Etili coal mine using static test methods. Seventeen samples were selected from areas with high acidic water concentrations: from different alteration zones belonging to volcanic rocks, from sedimentary rocks, and from coals and mine wastes. Static tests (paste pH, standard acid-base accounting, and net acid generation tests) were performed on these samples. The consistency of the static test results showed that oxidation of sulfide minerals, especially pyrite-which is widely found not only in the alteration zones of volcanic rocks but also in the coals and mine wastes-is the main factor controlling the generation of AMD in this mine. Lack of carbonate minerals in the region also increases the occurrence of AMD.

  14. Predictions of the Potential Geographical Distribution and Quality of a Gynostemma pentaphyllum Base on the Fuzzy Matter Element Model in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zefang Zhao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Specific spatial information about medicinal plants is becoming an increasingly important part of their conservation. Gynostemma pentaphyllum (Thunb. Makino is a traditional Chinese medical plant, and gypenosides is one of the main active components of G. pentaphyllum. In our research, many samples of G. pentaphyllum and the data of gypenosides content in these samples were collected from 43 sampling sites, and based on the Fuzzy Matter Element model (FME, the relationships between gypenosides content and 19 environmental variables were established. Then, the maximum entropy model was used to determine the relative importance of each environmental variable, and thus determine the most limiting habitat criteria. Finally, the weighted average method was applied to determine the potential distribution of G. pentaphyllum in China, which was based on the content of gypenosides. The results showed that the areas of marginally suitable and suitable habitats for G. pentaphyllum in China were approximately 1.2 × 106 km2 and 0.3 × 106 km2, respectively. The suitable habitats were mainly located in southern China, including Hunan, Hubei, Chongqing, Anhui, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Shaanxi, and other regions. In conclusion, the FME model could accurately evaluate the habitat suitability of G. pentaphyllum, quantify the area of a suitable habitat, and analyze the spatial distribution.

  15. Cyclocurcumin, a curcumin derivative, exhibits immune-modulating ability and is a potential compound for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis as predicted by the MM-PBSA method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Min; Chen, Lihui; Zhang, Limin; Yu, Xiao; Yang, Qingrui

    2017-05-01

    The control and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis is a challenge in today's world. Therefore, the pursuit of natural disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMRDs) remains a top priority in rheumatology. The present study focused on curcumin and its derivatives in the search for new DMRDs. We focused on prominent p38 mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase p38α which is a prime regulator of tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), a key mediator of rheumatoid arthritis. In the present study, we used the X-ray crystallographic structure of p38α for molecular docking simulations and molecular dynamic simulations to study the binding modes of curcumin and its derivatives with the active site of p38α. The ATP-binding domain was used for evaluating curcumin and its derivatives. Molecular docking simulation results were used to select 4 out of 8 compounds. These 4 compounds were simulated using GROMACS molecular simulation platform; the results generated were subjected to molecular mechanics-Poisson Boltzmann surface area (MM-PBSA) calculations. The results showed cyclocurcumin as a potential natural compound for development of a potent DMRD. These data were further supported by inhibition of TNF-α release from lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-stimulated human macrophages following cyclocurcumin treatment.

  16. Potential predictive assay using RAR-β for radiosensitization by 13-cis-retinoic acid and interferonα2a in human carcinoma cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryu, Samuel; Nevaldine, Barbara H.; Unguraneau, Carmen; Chung, Chung T.; King, Gerald A.; Stein, Joseph P.

    1997-01-01

    radiosensitization by CRA and IFN. To test this, we have transfected an inducible RAR-β gene into HeLa cells. Following treatment with CRA and IFN in combination, a significant radiosensitization was observed in the cells transfected with RAR-β gene (enhancement ratio 1.4 at 10% cell survival level), in contrast to the parent HeLa cell line. Further experiments are in progress. Conclusion: A significant radiosensitization was seen by combined use of CRA and IFN in ME-180 cells which express high levels of RAR-β. The principal mode of cell death was by apoptosis. RAR-β appears to mediate the response of CRA and IFN treatment for radiation enhancement. These data suggest that a measurement of RAR-β levels in cancer cells will provide a useful predictive assay for radiosensitization by CRA and IFN

  17. Including irrigation in niche modelling of the invasive wasp Vespula germanica (Fabricius) improves model fit to predict potential for further spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Villiers, Marelize; Kriticos, Darren J; Veldtman, Ruan

    2017-01-01

    The European wasp, Vespula germanica (Fabricius) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), is of Palaearctic origin, being native to Europe, northern Africa and Asia, and introduced into North America, Chile, Argentina, Iceland, Ascension Island, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. Due to its polyphagous nature and scavenging behaviour, V. germanica threatens agriculture and silviculture, and negatively affects biodiversity, while its aggressive nature and venomous sting pose a health risk to humans. In areas with warmer winters and longer summers, queens and workers can survive the winter months, leading to the build-up of large nests during the following season; thereby increasing the risk posed by this species. To prevent or prepare for such unwanted impacts it is important to know where the wasp may be able to establish, either through natural spread or through introduction as a result of human transport. Distribution data from Argentina and Australia, and seasonal phenology data from Argentina were used to determine the potential distribution of V. germanica using CLIMEX modelling. In contrast to previous models, the influence of irrigation on its distribution was also investigated. Under a natural rainfall scenario, the model showed similarit